Predicting Archaeological Sites from Environmental Variables: A Mathematical Model for the Sierra Nevada Foothills, California 9780860544098, 9781407345918

Table of contents :
Cover
Copyright
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
LIST OF FIGURES
LIST OF TABLES
Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION
Chapter 2 THE SETTING AND INFORMATION ABOUT IT
Chapter 3 OPERATING ASSUMPTIONS
Chapter 4 DATA CODING
Chapter 5 DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS
Chapter 6 THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL
Chapter 7 BUILDING AND TESTING THE PREDICTIVE MODEL
Chapter 8 EXPLANATORY VALUE
Chapter 9 CONCLUSION
REFERENCES CITED
APPENDIX A. Data for Anderson: 40 Acre Quadrats
APPENDIX B. Program Output for the Mathematical Model

Citation preview

Predicting Archaeological Sites from Environmental Variables A Mathematical Model for the Sierra Nevada Foothills , California

T otn Pilgratn

BAR International Series 320 1987

B.A.R.

5, Centremead, Osney Mead, Oxford OX2 ODQ, England.

GENERAL EDITORS A.R. Hands, B.Sc., M.A., D.Phil. D.R. Walker, M.A.

B.A.R. SJ20, 1987: 'Predicting Archaeological Sites from Environmental l'ariables'

© Tom Pilgram, 1987

The author’s moral rights under the 1988 UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act are hereby expressly asserted. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be copied, reproduced, stored, sold, distributed, scanned, saved in any form of digital format or transmitted in any form digitally, without the written permission of the Publisher. ISBN 9780860544098 paperback ISBN 9781407345918 e-book DOI https://doi.org/10.30861/9780860544098 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library This book is available at www.barpublishing.com

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ABSTRACT ·································································································································· V ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................................... Vl LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................. Vll LIST OF TABLES..................................................................................................................... viii 1 Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 1 Origin of the Study ............................................................................................................... Operating Assumptions ........................................................................................................ 2 Implementation ....................................................................................................................... 3 Explanatory Value ................................................................................................................. 4 4 Practical Value ....................................................................................................................... Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 5 Chapter 2: THE SETTING AND INFORMATION ABOUT IT ........................... 7 Sources of Information ........................................................................................................ 7 Setting ........................................................................................................................................ 8 Environment ............................................................................................................................ 8 Culture History....................................................................................................................... 18 Subsistence .............................................................................. .......................................... 19 Settlement .......................................................................................................................... 19 Time .................................................................................................................................... 20 Surrunary ......................................................... .............................................................. ...... 21 Implications for Modeling .................................................................................................. 22 Chapter 3: OPERATING ASSUMPTIONS ..................................................................... 25 Chapter 4: ·DATA CODING ................................................................................................... 29 Distance Methods and Quadrat Methods ..................................................................... 29 Practical Considerations in Quadrat Use .................................................................... 30 Data .............................................................·.............................................................................. Chapter 5: DESCRIYfIVE ANALYSIS............................................................................ . Techniques of Analysis ........................................................................................................ The Descriptive Approach .................................................................................................. Results for Single Factors .................................................................................................. Topography .......... ,............................................................................................................ Water Resources ............................................................................................................. Vegetation ......................................................................................................................... Geology .................................................................................................:............................ Factors in Combination ...........................................................:.......................................... The Distribution of Site Components .............................................................................

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35 35 36 36 36 38 39 42 44 47 Chapter 6: THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL ............................................................. 53 Chapter 7: BUILDING AND TESTING THE PREDICTIVE MODEL .............................................................................................................................................................. 57 111

The Inferential Approach .................................................................................................... The Model ................................................................................................................................ Testing the Model .................................................................................................................. Technical Considerations ...................................................................................................

Chapter 8: EXPLANATORY VALUE ............................................................................... Chapter 9: CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................... Problem Areas ...................................................................................................,.................... Potential Uses of the Model .............................................................................................. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... REFERENCES CITED ........................................................................................................... APPENDIX A: Data for Anderson ....................................................................................... APPENDIX B: Program Output ...........................................................................................

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57 59 62 63 69 77 78 80 80 83 89 121

ABSTRACT This study began as a project to aid long-range land management planning in the US Forest Service. Its goal was to develop a computer­ based method of predicting archaeological site densities from informa­ tion contained in environmental maps. The data consisted of the findings of two government-contracted archaeological reconnaissance surveys in the Stanislaus National Forest, and a range of information from Topographic, Vegetation Type, and Geologic maps. Information was recorded using quadrats, which allowed coding of environmental factors independently of archaeological site location. The information in the data base was analyzed in two steps. First, the relationship of archaeological site location to various environmental factors was examined through descriptive statistics, comparing the fre­ quency distributions of environmental factors for all quadrats to the fre­ quency distributions for quadrats with sites. Then, the relationships were examined for statistical significance. Though a number of relationships of archaeological site location to environmental factors were important, the most statistically significant relationships were to landform, slope, water resources, and vegetation. These were incorporated into a log-linear model which served as a basis for calculating an expected number of sites for each quadrat. The accuracy of the model was tested by comparing the expected number of sites with actual site density. The level of accuracy was both highly significant statistically and useful for actual prediction. The robustness of the model was tested, first, by using it on the original data recoded for larger quadrats, and second, by predicting site densities for a .-- different area and checking for accuracy. In both cases the results were good, though the results for the different area pointed out some useful distinctions between pattern and density, and suggested that a two-stage model might be even more successful. With predictive value established, the model was examined for explanatory value. While some useful insights into the relationship between environment and settlement were provided, the model made lit­ tle contribution to intuitive understanding of settlement process. The

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failure to deliver satisfying explanations is due to the difference between mathematical explanation, which ignores causation, and philosophical explanation, which requires it.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS My first thanks go to Gary Elsner and Ed Thor, who organized the Forest Service project that was this study' s beginning. They set up the practical requirements that controlled its emphasis, and Ed did some of the early testing and modeling, with statistical advice from David Sharp­ nack. A number of others in the Forest Service were important as well. Wally Woolfenden played a key role by providing the archaeological reports that formed part of the data base. His support in the early stages, and that of Sonia Tamez and Randy Milliken later on, included both ideas and encouragement. My efforts have frequently been graced by ideas from people who were thinking along the same lines, but had gone a bit farther. Jim Deetz contributed ideas on the details of subsistence, and brainstorming with Chad McDaniel helped synthesize the details. Tom Jackson's thoughts on the relationship of geology to topography were the key to a minor puzzle. Mark Dedon was always ready to talk math, and together we reinvented some of the techniques used here. The members of my dissertation committee all made contributions, of course. Bill Geoghegan kept me honest (I hope) on the math, Reg Barrett helped with the ecology, and Brent Berlin reminded me that I am, after all, an anthropologist. Together, they helped me study the eco­ logical relationships of people by mathematical means.

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LIST OF FIGURES

1. Topography for Anderson ................................................................................................... 10 2. Vegetation Types for Anderson ........................................................................................ 11 3. Geology for Anderson .......................................................................................................... 12 4. Topography for Bear ............................................................................................................ 13 5. Vegetation Types for Bear ................................................................................................. 14 6. Geology for Bear ................................................................................................................... 15 7. Landform Categories for Data Coding ........................................................................... 32 8. Proportion of Quadrats by Landform ............................................................................. 37 9. Proportion of Quadrats by Slope ...................................................................................... 37 10. Proportion of Quadrats with Archaeological Sites, by Slope .............................. 38 11. Proportion of Quadrats with Archaeological Sites, by Water Resource 39 12. Proportion of Quadrats with Archaeological Sites, by Vegetation Type ·························································································································································"··· 40 13. Proportion of Quadrats with Archaeological Sites, by Broad Vegetation Type ......................................................................................................................................... 41 14. Proportion of Quadrats with Archaeological Sites, by Geology ........................ 43 15. Proportion of Quadrats with a Given Geology, by Slope ..................................... 43 16. Hypothesized Erosion Sequence .................................................................................... 45 17. Proportion of Quadrats with Archaeological Sites, by Slope and Water Resource ........................................................................................................................................... 46 18. Proportion of Quadrats with Archaeological Sites, by Slope for Quadrats with a Confluence of Streams, One of Which is Perennial ................................ 46 19. Proportion of Archaeological Sites with Midden, by Slope ................................ 49 20. Proportion of Archaeological Sites with Bedrock Mortars, by Slope .............. 49 21. Model: Proportion of Archaeological Sites with Bedrock Mortars ................... 51 22. Proportion of Quadrats for Bear ..... �.............................................................................. 65 23. Grid used to record data for 40 acre quadrats for Anderson, with quadrat numbers ................................................................................................................................... 91

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LIST OF TABLES 1. Key to Vegetation Types ...................................................................................................16-17 2. Key to Symbols on the Geologic Maps ....... .................................................................. 18 3. Results of Tests of Association ........................................................................................ 58 4. Multiplicative Parameters for Anderson Flat ............................................................... 60 5. Range in Parameter Values for Anderson Flat ........................................................... 61 6. Example: Calculating Expected Number of Sites from Multiplicative Parameters of Environmental Characteristics ..................................................................... 62 7. Comparison of Anderson Data (40 acre quadrats) With Model Results .............................................................................................................................................................. 63 8. Comparison of Anderson Data (160 acre quadrats) With Model Results ····························································· ................................................................................................. 64 9. Comparison of Bear Data (40 acre quadrats) With Model Results ..................... 64 10. Comparison of Vegetation for Anderson and Bear ................................................. 66 11. Test of Expected Sensitivity for Anderson ................................................................ 72 12. Test of Expected Sensitivity for Bear .......................................................................... 72

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C hap te r 1 I NTRODUCTION Ma thema t ica l mode l s , t h e r e p re sen ta t ion o f r e a l -wo r ld r e la t ion sh ip s i ne xac t ma thema t ica l t e rm s , a r e b e ing u sed mor e a nd mo re i na r chaeo l o gy . T h i s p ape r w i l l p re sen t as ucce ssfu l m a thema t ica l mode l d e s igned t o p red ic t a r chaeo log i ca l s i te d en s i t ies f r om e nv i ronmen ta l i n forma t ion , a nd d i scu s s s ome a s pec t s o f i t s i mpo r tance . B eyond d emon s t ra t ing t h a t t h e mode l s a t i sf ie s i t s p u rpo se , a n a t temp t w i l l b e m ade t o e va lua te i t s u sefu lness f o r u nde r s tand ing p r eh i s tor ic s e t t lemen t p a t te rn s , a nd g a in s ome i n s igh t i n to t h e p o ten t ia l o f ma thema t ica l mode l s g ene ra l ly i n a r chaeo log ica l e xp lana t ion . O r ig in o ft h e S t ud y T h is s t udy o r ig ina ted i n t h e p l ann ing n eed s o f t h e U n i ted S ta te s F o re s t S e rv ice . T he p r e se rva t ion o f c u l tu ra l r e sou r ce s i tes f r om d e s t ruc t i on b y a vo id ing d eve lopmen t o n t h e i r l o ca t ion s i sa n i mpor tan t p a r t o f l a nd managemen t p l ann ing f o r p ub l ic l a nd s . T he s i ze s o f t h e l a nd a r ea s t y p ica l ly u nde r c on s ide ra t ion make t h i s t a sk a n e xcep t iona l c ha l lenge . W i th mo re t h an 3 . 5 m i l l ion a c r e s i nC a l iforn ia a l one t os upe rv i se a cco rd i n g t o c omp r ehen s ive p l an s , t h e re i s an eed f o r s ome m e thod o f d e te r m in ing t h e l i ke l ihood o f t h e p r esence o f a r chaeo log ica l s i tes w i thou t a c tua l ly e ngag ing i na n a r chaeo log ica l r e conna i s sance o f t h e e n t i re a r ea . T he re i s n o s ub s t i tu te f o r f i e ld e xam ina t ion b efo re a c tua l d i s tu rbance o ccu r s ( c f . W i ldesen 1 977 :18 -36 ) , b u t f o r l o ng r ange p l ann ing o f v e ry l a rge a r ea s , am ean s o fp r ed ic t ing a r chaeo log ica l s i te d en s i ty f r om i n fo r m a t ion a l r eady a va i lab l e w ou ld b e e x t r eme ly u sefu l . T o t h i s e nd , t h e L and Managemen t P lann ing R e sea rch a nd Me tho d o logy d i v i s ion o f t h e P ac if i c S ou thwes t E xpe r imen ta l S t a t ion c omm i s s i oned a s t udy t o d e term ine t h e f e a s ib i l i ty o f p r ed ic t ing t h e l o ca t ion o f p r eh i s to r ic s i tes u s ing g ene ra l ly a va i lab le i n forma t ion . T he p urpo se o f t h e s t udy w a s t o p roduce ac ompu te r -ba sed m e thod f o r p r ed ic t ing d i s tr i b u t ion s o f p r eh i s to r ic c u l tu ra l r e sour ce s i te s f r om t h e i n fo rma t ion i n g overnmen t -pub l i shed e nv i ronmen ta l m ap s . T he g oa l o f t h e s t udy w a s t o a ch ieve a ccu ra te p r ed ic t ion , u s ing r e ad i ly a va i lab le i n fo rma t ion , a s s imp ly a s p os s ib le . T h i s d i f f e r s f r om 1

t h e t y p ica l r e sea r ch g oa l o f a ch iev ing t h e b e s t u nde r s tand ing p o s s ib le o f ap henomenon u s ing w ha teve r d a ta a nd t e chn iques a r e n ece ssa ry , t h ough i t may n o t b e s o f a r f r om t h e r e a l i ty o fa c tua l ly d o ing t h e w o rk . O pera t ing A s sump t ions T he b a se a s sump t ion i n t h i s s t udy i st h a t s ome l o ca t ion s a r e m o re s u i tab le f o r s e t t lemen t t h an o t he r s , a nd t h a t t h e f e a tu re s d e term in ing t h i s d if e ren t ia l s u i tab i l i ty c an b e s t ud ied b o th i n d iv idua l ly a nd i n c omb ina t i on . I n t h i s c a se t h e f e a tu r es a r e a s sumed t ob e e nv i ronmen ta l , s o t h a t d i f f e ren t e nv i ronmen ta l c ha rac te r i s t ics r e su l t i nd i f f e r en t d eg r ee s o fs u i ta b i l i ty f o r s e t t lemen t . T he p rob lem o f w hy o ne l o ca t ion i ss e lec ted o ve r a no the rh a s al o ng t h eo re t ica l h i s tory . T he o r ig in s o f c ur r en t t h eo ry a r e i ne conom ic s , b u t t h e t h eo r ies h ave a ch ieved t h e i r g r ea te s t u se i ng eog raphy , a nd c on s ide r a b le w o rk h a s b een d one i n a r chaeo logy a s w e l l . T he a s sump t ion s o f t h i s mode l c o r re spond mo s t c l o se ly t ot h ose o fi n du s t r ia l l o ca t ion t h eory . I ndu s t r ia l l o ca t ion t h eo ry r e ce ived i t s e a r l ie s t c omp r ehen s ive t r ea t m en t f r om A . Webe r ( 1929 , c f . H am i l ton 1 967 f o r ar e v iew ) . T he b a s ic a s sump t ion s a r e t h a t t h e n a tu ra l r e sou r ce s i mpo r tan t t o ag iven i n du s t ry a r e d i sc re te ly l o ca ted , a nd t h a t t h e i n dus t ry s hou ld b e l o ca ted i nr e la t ion t o t h em i n aw ay t h a t max im izes e ff ic iency , a s m ea su r ed b y t r an spo r ta t i on c os t s . T he s t udy o f t h e s e t t lemen t p a t tern s o f h un te r -ga the re r s d i ve rge s i n i mpo r tan t w ay s f r om t h e s t udy o f t h e l o ca t ion o f i n dus t ry , e ven i fs ub s i s tence i st h ough t o f a s a n i n du s t ry a nd e f f or t a s t h e c o s t o f t r an spor ta t i on . T he mo s t i mpor tan t d i f f e r ence i si nt h e r e sou rce s , w h ich i ni n du s t r ia l l o ca t ion t h eo ry a r e g ene ra l ly t r ea ted a sh av ing p o in t l o ca t ion s . F ew o f t h e r e sou r ces i mpor tan t t o h un te r -ga the r e r s a r e s o c oncen t ra ted , a nd s ome , s uch a sp l an t s pec ies , c ove r l a rge a r ea s . I n s p i te o f t h e se d i f f e r ence s , t h e mode l u sed i n t h i s s t udy s ha r ed i mpor tan t p o in t s w i th i n du s tr ia l l o ca t ion t h eo ry , b o th a s sum ing ad i sc r e te d i s t r ibu t ion o f r e sou r ces , w i th t h e r e la t ive i mpor tance o f d i f f e ren t r e sou r ce s i n d i f f e ren t l o ca t ion s d e term in ing s i te l o ca t ion . T he se a r e t h e p o in t s w h ich d i s t ingu i sh i n du s t r ia l l o ca t ion t h eo ry f r om o t he r c l a s s ic l o ca t ion t h eo r ie s , s uch a s t h e l a nd u se t h eo ry ( v on T hunen 1 966 ) o r c en t r a l p l ace t h eo ry ( C r i s ta l le r 1 964 , L o sch 1 954 , c f . Sm i th 1 976 f o r a r ev iew ) , w h ich s t a r t w i th t h e a s sump t ion o f a n i s o t rop ic p l a in , ap e r f e c t ly h omogeneous e nv i ronmen t .

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I mp lemen ta t ion T he b a s ic a s sump t ion s w e re e xpr e ssed t h rough a m a thema t ica l m ode l wh ich t r ea ted t h e v a r iou s e nv i ronmen ta l f a c to r s a s i n dependen t v a r iab les a nd u sed t h em t o p r ed ic t s i te d en s i ty , t h e d ependen t v a r iab le . T he mode l w a s av a r ia t ion o f t h e g ene ra l l i nea r mode l , wh ich p rov ides a w ay o f e xam in ing t h e e f f ec t s o f s eve ra l v a r iab les o n o ne d ependen t v a r i a b le . T he l o g l inea rm ode l a c tua l ly u sed p e rm i t ted t h e u se o fc a tego r ica l d a ta , t h e o n ly t y pe a va i lab le f o r mo s t o ft h e f a c to r s c on s ide red . T he o pe ra t iona l iza t ion o f t h e a s sump t ion t h a t e nv i ronmen ta l f a c to r s i n f luence l o ca t ion t r ea ted l o ca t ion a s p robab i l i s t ic . T he re w e re m any u nknown s i nb o th t h e d a ta a nd t h e r e la t ion sh ips , a nd t h e e a s ie s t w ay t o d ea l w i th t h i s u nce r ta in ty w a s t o t r ea t t h e p roces s a s p robab i l i s t ic r a the r t h an d e te rm in i s t ic .

I n t h is c a se , t h e i mpo r tan t e nv i ronmen ta l f a c to r s

d e te rm ined t h e p robab i l i ty o f s i te l o ca t ion , r a the r t h an s i te l o ca t ion i t se lf , l e av ing l e eway f o r u nknown f a c tor s n o t i n c luded a nd " e r ro r " . T he p r ed ic to r s o f a r chaeo log ica l s i te l o ca t ion w e re t a ken f r om U n i ted S ta te s G eo log ica l S urvey m ap s . Map s d i sp lay ing t o pog raphy ( wh ich i n c ludes w a te r s ou r ces ) , v ege ta t ion , a nd g eo logy a r e a va i lab le f o r a l l o f C a l ifo rn ia . T he l o ca t ion o f a r chaeo log ica l s i te s i sn o t a va i lab le i n t h i s f o rm , b u t t h e v a r ious N a t iona l F o res t s r e gu la r ly c on t rac t a r chaeo log i c a l s u rvey s o fa r ea s b e ing c on s ide red f o r s ome s o r t o fd eve lopmen t , a nd t h e i n forma t ion c on ta in ed i n t wo r epor t s o f t h e se s u rvey s ( ACRS 1 977 , 1 978 ) f o rmed t h e a r chaeo log ica l d a ta b a se o ft h e s t udy . T he s t udy a r ea s w e re d i v ided u p b y g r id l i nes f o r t h e p u rpose o f r e co rd ing e nv i ronmen ta l i n fo rma t ion i n dependen t ly o f a r chaeo log ica l s i te l o ca t ion . A c omp le te s e t o f e nv i ronmen ta l a nd a r chaeo log ica l d a ta w a s r e co rded f o r e ach e ach g r id s qua re , o r q uad ra t , u s ing t h e i n fo rma t ion s ou rce s m en t ioned a bove . T he d a ta w e r e a na lyzed b y b o th d e sc r ip t ive a nd i n f e r en t ia l t e ch n ique s . A s p r e l im ina ry a na ly s i s , t h e f r equency d i s t r ibu t ion s f o r v a r iou s e nv i ronmen ta l c ha ra c te r i s t ic s w e r e c ompa red f o r q uad ra t s w i th a nd w i thou t s i te s . Whe r e t h e d i s t r ibu t ion s w e r e d i f f e ren t , t h is w a s t a ken a s e v idence t h a t t h e e nv i ronmen ta l f a c to r w a s i mpor tan t i ns i te l o ca t ion . A n umbe r o f p a t te rn s w e r e d i scove red b y t h is m e thod , a nd s ome i n te r e s t ing r e la t ion sh ips s ugge s t ed . T hen , t h e

r e la t ion sh ips d i scove r ed t h rough d e sc r ip t ive t e chn ique s

w e r e e xam ined f o r s t a t i s t ica l s i gn if i cance . T h i s e l im ina ted a n umbe r o f r e la t ion sh ips f r om f u r the r c on s ide ra t ion , a s t h ey w e re n o t s i gn if ican t e nough t oj u s t ify t h e a dded c omp l ica t ion o f i n c lud ing t h em i n a mode l .

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Al og l inea r mode l w a s c on s t ruc ted u s ing t h e mo s t s i gn if ican t f a c to r s . T he mode l w a s u sed t oc a lcu la te a s e r ie s o f w e igh t s f o r t h e v a r iou s e nv i ronmen ta l f a c to r s . T he se w e igh t s a l lowed t h e e xpec ted n umbe r o f s i te s f o r e ach q uadra t t o b e c a lcu la ted f r om e nv i ronmen ta l i n f o rma t ion . T h i s w a s t h e p red ic t ion t h a t t h e s t udy w a s a im ing t owa rd . T he mode l w a s t e s ted b y c ompa r ing e xpec ted a nd a c tua l s i te d en s i ty . T he r e su l t s w e re h igh ly s i gn if ican t s t a t i s t ica l ly , a nd w e r e a l so v e ry a ccu ra te i n a ccoun t ing f o r t h e n umbe r o f s i te s i n t h e a r ea u sed t o c on s t ruc t i t . T he r e su l t s w e re l e s s a ccu ra te , t hough s t i l l r e a sonab ly s o , i na n a r ea w i th d i f f e ren t t opog raphy a nd v ege ta t ion . I n a dd i t ion , ap r ed ic t ion w a s c a r r ied o u t o n d a ta c oded f r om q uad ra t s o f ad if e r en t s i ze , a s at e s t o f t h e r obus tnes s o f t h e r e su l t s . Aga in t h e r e su l t s , t h ough l e ss a ccu ra te , w e re s t i l l r ea sonab ly g ood . E xp lana tory V a lue T he v a r ious t e s t s o f a ccu racy i n d ica ted t h a t t h e mode l f u lf i l led i t s o r ig ina l p urpose , t ha t o f p r ed ic t ing t h e d en s i ty o f a r chaeo log i ca l s i te s f r om r ead i ly a va i lab le i n fo rma t ion . H oweve r , i ti s wo r th c on s ide r ing t h e c on t r ibu t ion t h e mode l make s t o o u r u nde r s tand ing o f t h e r e la t ion sh ip b e tween e nv i ronmen t a nd t h e s e t t lemen t p roce s s . T h i s p roved h a rd t o d o . P a r t o f t h e p rob lem l i es w i th t h e d es ign o f t h e s t udy . I tw a s n o t i n tended t o e xp la in t h e l o ca t ion o f a r chaeo log ica l s i te s , b u t me r e ly t op red ic t t h em . H oweve r , t h e g rea te r p a r t o f t h e p rob l em l i e s w i th t h e d i s junc t ion b e tween ma thema t ica l a nd i n tu i t ive e xp la n a t ion . T he re a r e c er ta in a spec t s o fi n tu i t ive e xp lana t ion t h a t w i l l s imp ly n eve r b e a dequa te ly s a t i sf ied b y a ma thema t ica l mode l .

I ti si mpo r tan t

t o k eep t h is i n m ind when d es ign ing a nd e va lua t ing p ro jec t s t h a t w i l l s t udy p henomena t h rough t h e u se o f ma thema t ica l mode l s . T o ad eg r ee , t h e p rob lem i s ap h i lo soph ica l o ne , t h a t o f d ec id ing wha t c on s t i tu te s e xp lana t ion . P rac t ica l V a lue I n s p i te o f r e serva t ion s a bou t t h e c on t r ibu t ion o f t h e mode l t o t h e u nde r s tand ing o f s e t t lemen t p roce s s , i tm ake s i mpo r tan t p rac t ica l c on t r i b u t ion s t o o the r a r ea s . I t s u sefu lne s s i n p l ann ing i s o bv iou s , a nd i t c l ea r ly f u lf i l l s t h e o r ig ina l p urpo se o ft h e s t udy . I n a dd i t ion , ma thema t ica l mode l s c an b e u sefu l i n r e sea r ch i n t wo w ay s .

F i r s t , i n t h e e a r ly s t ages o f d a ta c o l lec t ion a mode l c ou ld h e lp i n

s amp l ing d es ign .

S econd , o nce t h e i n forma t ion i s c o l lec t ed , a mode l

4

wh ich makes p r ed ic t ion s c an b e u sefu l i np o in t ing o u t b o th p a t te rns a nd e xcep t ion s t ot h em . T h i s c an h e lp f ocu s a t ten t ion d u r ing a na ly s is . C onc lu s ion T he s t udy a ch ieved i t s o r ig ina l a im w i th c on s ide rab le s ucce s s . I n a dd i t ion , i ts e rved a s ab a se f o r e xp lo r ing s ome i mpo r tan t q ue s t ion s . Mo s t d i scu s s ion s o f m a thema t ica l mode l s a r e d one f r om t h e p e r spec t ive o f t h e i r p o ten t ia l . I n t h i s c a se , t h e mode l w a s t h e s t a r t ing p o in t , a nd p rov ided a n o ppo r tun i ty t oe xam ine t h e a c tua l a pp l icab i l i ty o ft h e r e su l t s . T h i s r e su l ted i n as omewha t mo re s ubdued e va lua t ion o f ma thema t ica l mode l s t han h a s b een r e ached p r ev iou s ly i na r chaeo logy .

5

C hap te r 2 THE S ETTING AND I NFOR MAT ION ABOUT I T S ources o fI nf orma t ion S ince t h e g oa l o f t h e p ro jec t w a s t od eve lop am e thod t h a t n o t o n ly r e su l ted i na ccu ra te p r ed ic t ion s , b u t c ou ld b e e a s i ly i mp lemen ted a sw e l l , o n ly r e ad i ly a va i lab le i n forma t ion w a s u sed . F or tuna te ly , m ap s c on ta in i n g aw ide v a r ie ty o f i n forma t ion , i n c lud ing t o pog raphy , w a te r r e sou r ce s , v ege ta t ion t y pe , a nd g eo logy , w e re a va i lab le t h rough t h e U .S . G ove rn m en t . U SGS T opog raph ic Maps , p ub l ished i n 1 : 62 ,500 s ca le , p rov ided i n fo rma t ion o n t opog raphy , a l t i tude r a nge , s l ope , a spec t , a nd w a te r r e sou r ce s . G eo log ic Maps , p ub l i shed i n 1 : 250 ,000 s c a le , p rov ided i n f or m a t ion o n t h e u nde r ly ing r o ck f o rma t ion s . T he V ege ta t ion T ype Map s f o r t h e a r ea w e re n o t p ub l ished , b u t w e re a va i lab le a s b lue l ine r e p ro d uc t ion s i n 1 : 62 ,500 s c a le f r om t h e U SDA F o re s t S erv ice R eg iona l O ff ice i nS an F r anc i sco . T he se m ap s , made i nt h e 1 930 's w i th a n o r ien t a t ion t owa rd h arve s tab le l umbe r , p r esen t v ege ta t ion t y pe s w i th s ome s upp lemen ta ry d es igna t ion s f o r v a r ia t ion w i th in t h e b a se c a tego r ie s . A r chaeo log ica l i n f o rma t ion w a s n o t a va i lab le i n t h i s f o rm , b o th t o p ro tec t s i te s f r om v anda l i sm a nd b ecau se l o ca t ion i s o f t en u nknown . H oweve r , t h e v a r iou s N a t iona l F o r e s t s r e gu la r ly c on t rac t a r chaeo log ica l s u rvey s o f a r ea s b e ing c on s ide red f o r d eve lopmen t , s uch a s l o gg ing , a nd r e po r t s o f t h ese s u rvey s a r e a va i lab le t h rough n orma l c hanne l s . S ince t h e se w e r e l im i t ed i n a r ea a nd t h e d a ta c on ta ined i n t h em w e re c r uc ia l , t h ey n eces sa r i ly d e te rm ined w h ich a r ea s c ou ld b e s t ud ied . T he r e su l t s p r e sen ted i n t h i s s t udy a r e b a sed o n t wo r e por t s p r epa r ed b y A r chaeo l o g ica l C on su l t ing a nd R e sea r ch S e rv ice s , I n c . a nd p ub l i shed b y t h e U SFS ( ACRS 1 977 , 1 978 ) . T he t wo s t udy a r ea s c ove r at o ta l o f a pp rox ima te ly 1 8 ,647 a c r e s . T he a cces s ib le a r ea s , w h ich c omp r i se mo s t o f t h e t o ta l , w e r e c ove red u s ing c l ose ly s paced ( 1 5 m . ) t r an sec t s . Whe re t h e t e r ra in w a s m o re d i ff icu l t , t h ey u sed w ide r ( up t o 5 0 m . ) t r an sec t s w i th a dd i t iona l s po t c heck ing .

T he i n fo rma t ion r e co rded p rov ided t h e a r chaeo log ica l d a ta

b a se f o r t h e s t udy a r ea , a sw e l l a sd e l inea t ing i t s b ounda r ie s .

7

C on t rac ted s t ud ie s s uch a s t h ese , w he r e as pec if i ed a r ea i sc ove red a s t h o rough ly a s p o ss ib le , a vo id a n i mpo r tan t b ia s , t h e r e co rd ing o f s i te l o ca t ion s w i thou t s pec if ica t ion o f t h e t o ta l a r ea e xam ined f o r s i te s . I n o the r w o rd s , s t ud ie s i n vo lv ing c omp le te c ove rage o f as pec if ic a r ea r e co rd t h e a bsence o f s i tes a s w e l l a s t h e i r p r e sence . T h i s i sc r uc ia l f o r ap r ed ic t ive mode l t h a t w i l l b e u sefu l f o r p l ann ing . S e t t ing T he re a r e t wo k ey a spec t s t o ad escr ip t ion o f t h e s e t t ing . T he f i r s t i se nv i ronmen ta l : t h e g eography a nd e co logy o f t h e a r ea . T he s e cond i s c u l tu ra l : t h e p a t tern s o f s oc ia l o rgan iza t ion t h a t , i nc on junc t ion w i th t h e e nv i ronmen t , r e su l ted i n t h e s pa t ia l o rgan iza t ion o f s e t t lemen t . S ince e nv i ronmen t w i l l l a te r b e t r ea ted a s t h e k ey t os e t t lemen t , i tw i l l b e d i s c u s sed f i r s t . E nv ironmen t B o th s t udy a r ea s a r e l o ca ted i nt h e f oo th i l l s o f t h e w e s tern s l ope o f t h e S i e r ra N evada Moun ta in s , i nt h e S t an i s lau s N a t iona l F o r es t . T hough t h e t wo a r ea s a r e l o ca ted o n ly af ew m i les a pa r t , t h ey h ave s ome i mpo r t a n t e co log ica l d i f f e r ences . F igu re s 1t h rough 6 d i sp lay t h e e nv i ronmen t i nm ap f o rm , w i th T ab le s 1a nd 2 p rov id ing i n forma t ion a bou t t h e m aps . A nde r son C ompa r tmen t /G r izz ly U n i t ( h e r ea f te r c a l led " Ande r son " ) c ove r s a pp rox ima te ly 1 ,260 a c r e s , a nd c on s is t s o f as i ng le l a rge v a l ley , s epa ra ted i n to s eve ra l f l a t s b y c hange s i n e l eva t ion a nd l ow r i dge s , s u r r ounded b y r ugged h i l l s . T he a l t i tude r anges f r om 3 , 000 t o 5 , 900 f e e t , a nd mo s t o ft h e a r ea i sf a i r ly s t eep t e r ra in . A l l t h e s t ream s i n t h e v a l ley o r ig ina te w i th in t h e b ounda r ies o f t h e s t udy a r ea a nd j o in i n to o ne l a rge s t ream t h a t f l ow s o u t o f t h e c ompa r t m en t t h rough an a r row c anyon i nt h e s ou thwe s t c or n e r o fA nde r son F la t . A f ew i n te rm i t ten t s t reams d o n o t e n te r t h e v a l ley , a nd f l ow a way t h rough t h e h i l l s . A nde r son i s b ounded i n m any p l aces b y r i dge l i nes , a s m igh t b e e xpec ted o f w ha t i se s sen t ia l ly as ma l l , c omp le te w a te r shed . T he r i dge s f o rm an a tu ra l , t h ough h a rd ly i mpene t rab le , b a r r ie r , s o t h e v a l ley c an b e t h ough t o f i ns ome w ay s a s as i ng le n a tu ra l u n i t . B o th s t udy a r ea s a r e i n ar e g ion w he r e t h r ee m a jor v ege ta t ion z one s , O ak Wood land -G ra s s , C hapa r ra l , a nd P ine -F i r F o r e s t , b o rde r o n e ach o t he r ( Baumhof f 1 978 ) . I n A nde r son c on if e rou s f o re s t s , m o s t ly p ine w i th s ome f i r , c ove r a pp rox ima te ly t wo th i rds o f t h e a r ea , p r ima r i ly t h e

8

s l ope s . S h rub t y pe s , m os t ly c hapa r ra l w i th s ome c ham i se c hapar ra l , a r e c ommon i n t h e v a l ley b o t tom , a nd c ove r a pp rox ima te ly o ne s i x th o f t h e t o ta l a r ea . T he re i s a s ma l le r p ropo r t ion o f o ak w ood land a nd w ood land -g ra ss , a nd at i ny a r ea o fg ra s s land . A nde r son i so n t h e w e s tern e dge o f t h e S i e r ra b a tho l i th , a ta n i n te r s e c t ion b e tween i ta nd a l a rge a r ea o f m a r ine d epo s i t s . G ran i te a nd p a leozo ic m a r ine s ub s t ra tes o ccu r i nn ea r ly e qua l p ropor t ion s , w i th b a s ic i n t rus ive s ubs t ra te o ccu r r ing i np a tches . B ea r C ompa r tmen t ( h e rea f te r c a l led " Bea r " ) i s l o ca ted a bou t f i ve m i les n or th o f A nde r son , a nd c ove r s a pp rox ima te ly 7 , 387 a c r es . B ea r 's a l t i tude r ange i sq u i te s im i la r t o Ande r son 's , 3 , 440 t o5 , 32 1 f e e t , t h ough n o t q u i te a s w ide . A pa r t f r om t h i s s im i la r i ty , t h e re a r e i mpor tan t d i f f e rences i nk ey e nv i ronmen ta l f a c to r s , i n c lud ing t h e t o pog raphy , w a te r r e sou r ces , v ege ta t ion , a nd g eo logy . O ve ra l l , B ea r i s much f l a t te r t h an A nde r son . Mos t o f t h e a r ea i s r e la t ive ly f l a t , a nd t h e re i sv e ry l i t t le s t eep t e r ra in . I n a dd i t ion , t h e re i s n o b a s i s f o r t r ea t ing t h e a r ea a s an a tu ra l u n i t . T he o n ly n a tu ra l b a r r ie r ma rk ing t h e e dge o f t h e c ompa r tmen t i s t h e T uo lomne r i ve r o n t h e n o r thern e dge . S ho r t s t re tche s o f t h e o t he r b ounda r ies a r e d e l inea t ed b y s t reams , b u t t h ese a r e t o o s ma l l t ob e c on s ide red n a tu ra l b a r r ie r s . T he re a r e f ewe r s t ream s i nB ea r t h an i n Ande r son , b u t ag r ea te r p ro p or t ion o f t h e s t ream s i n B ea r a r e p e renn ia l . T he g r ea te r r e l iab i l i ty o f t h e s t ream s r e duces t h e i mpo r tance o ft h e d i f f e rence i nn umbe r s . T hough t h e t wo a r ea s s ha re t h e s ame b a s ic f l o ra , t h e p ropo r t ion s o f t h e d i f f e r en t v ege ta t ion t y pes v a ry c on s ide rab ly . C on i f e rous f o re s t a lmo s t c omp le te ly d om ina te s B ea r , l e av ing i n s ign if i can t a moun t s o f a l l o the r t ypes . Wh i le c on if e r s c ove r t h e m a jor i ty o f A nde r son , o t he r v ege t a t ion t ypes c ove r s ub s tan t ia l a r ea s a s w e l l , af a c to r t h a t w i l l l a te r b e s hown t ob e q u i te i mpo r tan t . F ina l ly , t h e g eo logy o f A nde r son a nd B ea r d i f f e r .

A s w i th v ege ta -

t i on , t h e b a s ic t ypes a r e q u i t e s im i la r , b u t o ccu r i nd i f f e ren t p ropor t ion s . B ea r i sa lmo s t c omp le te ly d om ina ted b y g r an i te , w i th an umbe r o f o t he r t y pes o ccur r ing i nv e ry s ma l l a moun t s . A s m igh t b e e xpec ted f r om s uch af l a t a r ea , i th a s s ome s ma l l d epo s i t s o f a l luv ium , w h ich A nde r son l a ck s c omp le te ly .

9

Figure 1. Topography for Anderson. From Lake Eleanor Quadrangle (top) and El Portal Quadrangle (bottom). Scale 1:62500. Contour Interval 100 Feet (El Portal) and 80 Feet (Lake Eleanor).

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F igure 2 . V ege ta t ion T ype s f o r A nde r son ( See T ab le 1 f o r K ey t o T ype s ) . Y o sem i te Q uad rang le 7 7B ( t op ) a nd 7 7C ( bo t tom ) . S ca le 1 : 62500 .

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1 2

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F igure 4 . T opog raphy f o r B ea r .

F rom L ake E leano r Q uad rang le . S ca le 1 : 62500 .

C on tour I n terva l 8 0 F ee t .

1 3

F igure 5 .

V ege ta t ion T ype s f o r B ea r ( See T ab le 1 f o r K ey t o T ype s ) .

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Areas praetloally 4e-..o1d of Yegetet!on cover.

D!:Slll'l': Area• OD 'Wlllch the principal COYar COIUlleta or 119Gb Bal t-daeart epecha as a!Mldaoale (Atriplax contert1fol1e), tounring aaltbueb ( A. caneec•n•), rubber rabbitbrusb ( Chryaotllalmue nau-oeue), blaol< gree..,,.ood (Sarcobatua .,.,n,:loulatus), and cottontllorn ( Tetrad)'lllla glabrata). This type 1n -•tern Ne-..ade cloaely approx1-tea deaert oond1t1one and 1• �n­ erally cont1nad to allre or the \otal •esetatlon OOTer. The llllpp1ng la done rrom r1�•. peaks, and other ...,maee pointa; therefore, only the epeclee which are -.1.­ lble "" from aboTII ftN included. Field -ppl.J>« bee been done on 113 quedranglee or wblcb 21 have now been published and releefted, at the cost or printing, tor �eneral dlatrlbution. Other• w1ll be publ1abed "" rapidly •• !uncle beco- 11Ya1lable. In the 1nter1.a, so tbnt the data will be aTeileble tor uae, tha unpubliahed -pa are be111£ almpll!ied end t.raneferred to lb-11.lnute plani-trlc beEe -P• prepared tbe ret:ional ornce or the •o,..,et Ser-rice on e ecale or 1:62,500. The"" upa ehow by tbe -1n et........, and towne; county_, national forest, and netlonal park boundaries; end the 5-.inute line•. The 11treU1s ""re tranacrlbed t'r0111 the topographic 1118pe and, together with the �nute llnee, are uaed aa adrenglea or e p:,,roxi8'1tely t bA e11- 11cala. The a1Kpl1!1ed •P• preeent the type ele-nte ( contrere, woodland ebrUb■, alld berb■) a• 21 broad typea, eecb or •bl.rubs are daalgnatad •• aubtypea or wb1cbenlr olau or -..getat1011 predallinatee. Moealce or woodland, ebrube, and barbs are abawn ae 11ul>type11 or tbll •oodland-gi-a■a r�t1on. Otber subtype• tbet are ldB11Utiad uolude -■dowa 1n graaaled typee, fir 1n Douglae-nr type■, 8114 sugar pine 1n wblobeYer ti.aber type lt appears. lhmbere are WM1d \o deaignata typee and letter• 111 addition to tbe nuabere to lndlc■ta aubtypea. All type area• under 20 acres in alze be.,., been •11.alJl«ted, and nearly all tid>er types under 40 acrea ha-..e -D c:alttad, exoept _..., they_..., 1eolated !ram atbar t1.abered areae.

BASIS P'OR T'l'.Pl! Cl.A.'!Sl:P'ICATICINS AND IIAP PR!:PARATION

13

12

IIIS:ELLAN!J)!JS CONIY!JiS: Thaaa are etande or lee

on wh1ob tbe pr1no1pal coYer oonal■ta or graaus or other GRASSLAIID: herbaceous yegetat1on, includ1ne buall:r herb• a1cb as braolcen (Pteridhm, aqu1l1nua pubeacena) and woolly llllles-ears (Wywthia 1110111■), In general tbe grassland type 1a cos,poeed JlllUlly or ■ucb annual a as ■lanclar oat ( AYell8 be.rbata), eort cbeu ( BrCIIUa mollia}, and alrlleria ( ErodiUIII clcutarhan). liatural -adowe are incluc18d bare end indicawd by the ..,..bol _. •

A-...,.•

CULTIVAl'!D AND URBAN.

6

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2

3

I! B C

lfHITll3ARJt-FOXTAIL P Im: RUT: Stande conte1n1np; wh1tebark pine as � do�1nant are tbe only repreaentat1TfH! or this belt 1n the central Sierres. They occupy tbe b11ther eleTatlons Pdjacent to the lodge;,o}e--..�lte rlne belt. Frequent esaocistea are •bite pine and hemlock and to a lesser extent red r1r Pnd :rerrrey pine. 20

lleadowa 1n type := W Woodland 1n types •,5, and 6 Sepbru■h 1n typee 8 end 9 F Fir in type 1:3 Chaparral 1n type, 8 end 9 S Sup.r pine 1n type■ 12,14,l:l,16,sn1 17 A Sbrw, alder or willow in types 6,8, lll>d 9

• SUpple-ntary Designat1oM

Sta.nds in whlcb lodge;,ole pine, •bi ta pine, LODG!:POU:� !'D'E l!l':LT: and western healock (TSUf"a -rten81ane) occur•• dominante, exelua1H or tboae also contaiDine e1tber wb1tebark pine (Pinua albicaulia) or IIJQ' or tbe collllll9rciel pines. Tbey occupy tb a zone at the b1�r eleYationa ad­ jacent to the r1r balt. Very often white !1r Bnd red rir are eesoci�tad dolllinanta at the aarp.ln b et-en the two.

19

3ubalp1ne Tree Types

n

FIR BELT: Stande in which white rir e.nd red !ir, either 1ndiY1dually or together, are the only damlnant timber tree a. general tbey occur,y the higher elaTations edjacent to the pine--tir belt.

PINl:-FIR BELT: Stands ii: which white r1r end red !ir, either 1nd1'fldu.ally or together, appear as aeeoc1e ted daunanta 111 tb the co-rclal pines . .6.sa­ ociat1on& or lod@epole pine and white µine •1tb :rerrrey pine are.,_,. at the upper l1111te or tbi• belt.

l?

18

PINl:-OOT.JGL\S-l'IR-FIR BELT: Stancle 1n which •h1 te !ir and rad tlr, either indiT1dually or together, appear ea associated dominant• with the o.-r­ cial pines and Douglea-f1r. !'requent associates are black oak and incenae­ oadar. An underetory or shrubby Yegetat1on cona1et1ng -,stly or cbeparral. specie• is not unueuel.

PIN!--POUOLAB-:P"IR Bl!l.T: Stands in •bicb the dominant timber nees cons1"1 or tbe caaarcial pines and Douglae-rir. The tree and abrub aaaocietea generally tound in tbe pine belt also occur bere •

1�

16

PINI: m:LT: Stands 1n which the co11111erc1al pines - pondaroaa pine (Pinu• pondaro811), :rertrey Jine, and 11Uf!U pine - and 1nc11nae-oadar, e1tber 1nd­ iYidually or together, ere tba onl.y dOllllnant timber treea. 71-equent aeaoc:­ iatee are black oak and canyon l1n oak, and at the lower elenUona digger p1na. Lod.8epole pine (P. contorte) and we■tern •bite pine (P. aonticola) are often aa eocated witb :Ieftrey pine et the bigber eleYetiona. An under­ etory ot shrubby Yegetation cona1ating or either cbaparral or sagebrush apeo1ea 1• c-n.

14

T ab le 1 ( P reced ing 2 p age s ) . K ey t oV ege ta t ion T ype s .

T ab le 2 K ey t o S ymbo l s o n t h e G eo log ic Map s S ymbo l Qa l Qg P V g r b i I P

Mean ing A l luv ium G lac ia l d epo s i t s P le i s tocene v o lcan ic p y roc la s t ic r ock s Me sozo ic g ran i te r ock s Me sozo ic b a s ic i n t ru s ive r ock s P a leozo ic Mar ine -

C u l ture H i s tor y B o th s t udy a r ea s l i e i n t h e t e r r i to ry a s s igned b y K roebe r ( 1 976 ) t o t h e S i e r ra M iwok . T h i s d e s igna t ion i su sed b y m os t o t he r w o rke r s i n t h e f i e ld , t h ough B ea l s a nd H e s te r ( 197 1) a nd C ook ( 1 955 ) u se t h e m o r e d e scr ip t ive n ame o f F oo th i l l M iwok w h i le k eep ing t h e b ounda r ie s t h a t K roebe r d ef ined . A s a n e x ten s ive r e v iew o f t h e l i t e ra tu r e h a s b een d one b y Mo ra t to ( 1972 ) , Iw i l l n o t a t temp t t og i ve ac omp rehen s ive r e v iew o f t h e M iwok c u l tu re a s aw ho le , b u t i n s tead d i scus s o n ly t h o se a spec t s o f c u l tu r e , k nown f r om e t hnog raphy , t h a t p e r ta in d i r ec t ly t os e t t lemen t . T h is i n f o rma t ion i sq u i te l i m i t ed , f o r t wo r e a son s . F i r s t , p r ac t ica l a spec t s o f s ub s is tence w e r e n o t am a jo r a r ea o f e mpha s is a tt h e t ime t h e e t hnog raph ie s w e re d one . S ince mo s t o ft h e w o rk w a s s a lvage e t hnog ra p hy , d ea l ing w i th p eop le w ho w e r e v i c t im s o f e nv i ronmen ta l c hange , r e duced p opu la t ion , a nd c u l tu ra l d i srup t ion , t h is k i nd o f s t udy w ou ld h ave b een e x t reme ly d i ff i cu l t . I n a ny c a se , w o rke r s i n t h e f i e ld w e r e mo s t i n te re s ted i nt r a i t c ompa r i son , s o m uch o f t h e w o rk w a s e t hno log i c a l , d ea l ing w i th ma te r ia l c u l tu r e . When s ub s i s tence a nd s e t t lemen t p a t t e rn w e r e t r ea ted , i tw a s mo r e f r om t h e a s pec t o f b ehav io ra l t r a i t s s u i t a b le f o r c ompa r i son t h an a s s o lu t ion s t oa n i mpor tan t p rob lem . I n a dd i t ion , t h e g roup o ccupy ing t h e s t udy a r ea w e r e n o t t h e s ub j e c t s o f e x ten s ive w o rk . T he M iwok w e r e d i v ided i n to a n umber o f g roups . T he m a jo r o nes w e r e ac oa s ta l g roup s epa ra ted f r om t h e r e s t , a p l a in s g roup l i v ing o n t h e f l oo r o f t h e S ac r amen to V a l ley , a nd t h o se l i v i n g i n t h e w e s tern f oo th i l ls o f t h e S i e r ra N evada . O f t h e se , t h e C oa s ta l M iwok , w i th a s he l if i sh ing e conomy , r e ce ived t h e mo s t s t udy , t h e s a lmon -f i sh ing P la in s M iwok t h e n ex t m os t , a nd S i er ra M iwok t h e l e a s t .

1 8

I n s p i te o f l im i t ed s t udy , t h e r e i sr e levan t i n fo rma t ion a va i lab le f o r t h r ee i mpo r tan t a spec t s o f al o ca t ion s t udy . T he f i r s t i ss ubs i s tence a nd t h e r e la t ion sh ip o f t h e S i er ra M iwok t on a tu ra l r e sou r ce s . T he s e cond i s s e t t lemen t p a t tern . T h i s i si n t ima te ly r e la ted t o t h e s ub s i s tence , b u t a l so c on s ide r s s oc ia l f a c to r s , s uch a s s o c ia l o rgan iza t ion w i th r e ga rd t o n a tu ra l r e sou rce s . T he t h i rd i st ime o f o ccupa t ion , w h ich i n d ica te s t h e p o s s ib i l i ty o f c hange s i n s ubs i s tence p a t te rn s a nd p rob lems o f s i te c on t empe rane i ty a nd s uperpo s i t ion . S ub s i s tence I ti su n ive r sa l ly a g reed t h a t t h e i n hab i tan t s o f t h e s t udy a r ea w e r e h un te r -ga the re r s . B aumhof f ( 1963 ) l i s t s a corn s , f i sh , a nd g ame a s t h e m a jo r f ood s ou r ce s , ap o in t s uppor ted i ni t s e s sen t ia ls b y K roebe r ( 1 976 ) a nd B ea l s a nd H e s te r ( 1 971) . K roebe r g oe s o n t os ay t h a t t h e C a l iforn ia I nd ian s w e re " t he mo s t omn ivo rou s g r oup o f t r ibes o n t h e c on t inen t " ( K roebe r 1 976 :523 ) , p o in t ing o u t p e rcep t ive ly t h a t t h e a c t o f g a the r ing a co rn s f a c i l i ta tes t h e g a ther ing o f ag r ea t n umbe r o f o t he r f ood s , au sefu l f a c to r i n a n e nv i ronmen t w he re f ood r e sou rces w e re " boun t ifu l i n t h e i r v a r ie ty r a the r 1 976 :524 )

t h an

i n

t h e i r

o ve rwhe lm ing

a bundance . "

( K roebe r

F o r h un te r -ga the r e r s , t h ough , N a t ive C a l ifo rn ian s e xe r c i sed c on s ide r a b le c on t ro l o ve r t h e i r e nv i ronmen t , s hap ing i tt o m ee t t h e i r n eed s t h rough t h e d e l ibe ra t e u se o f f i r e . T h i s p roce s s h a s b een d e sc r ibed b y s eve ra l r e sea r che r s , t h e mo s t i mpor tan t o f w hom i sL ew i s ( 1973 ) . H e d e sc r ibes i n d e ta i l t h e t e chn iques a nd c on sequence s o f t h i s p roces s , w h ich a ppea r s t o h ave b een r ema rkab ly e f f ec t ive . B u rn ing a f f ec ted t h e d i s t r ibu t ion o f u sefu l p l an t s , a nd w a s a n i n d i r ec t m ean s o f g ame m anagemen t . I n s ome c a se s , b u rn ing c ou ld a s much a s q uad rup le t h e a moun t o f g ame p r e sen t , a nd d i r ec t t h e m ovemen t s o f i mpor tan t s pec ies b y c on t ro l l ing t h e l o ca t ion o ft h e i r f ood . B ean a nd L aw ton ( 1 976 ) s ay t h i s c on t ro l p rov ided e nough r e sou rces a nd s e cu r i ty t o a l low a l e ve l o f c u l tu ra l c omp lex i ty u sua l ly a s soc ia ted w i th a g r icu l tu ra l s oc ie t ie s . S ugge s t ing t h e l e ve l o fe nv i ronmen ta l c on t ro l a pp roached t h a t p o s s ib le w i th a g r icu l tura l t e chn ique s , t h ey p r ef e r t o d e sc r ibe C a l ifo rn ia I nd ian s a s " s em i -ag r icu l tu ra l " r a the r t h an a s h un te r g a the r e r s . S e t t l emen t S e t t lemen t p a t te rn s h ave t wo i mpor tan t , t h ough n o t a lway s c l ea r ly d i s t ingu ishab le , a spec t s : r e g iona l a nd l o ca l . T he r e g iona l p a t te rn , 1 9

a cco rd ing t o K roebe r ( 1976 ) , w a s t o l i ve p ermanen t ly a s h igh u p t h e moun ta in s l ope s a s t h e w in te r s now s p erm i t t ed , a nd t h en move h ighe r i n t h e s umme r . A s t h e s t udy a r ea s a r e a ta n a l t i tude t h a t r egu la r ly r e ce ives s nowfa l l , t h ey w e r e p robab ly z one s o f t empo r a ry s umme r r e s idence . Map s b y K roebe r ( 1976 :P la te 3 7 ) a nd L evy ( 1978 :F igu r e 2 ) , w h ich l i s t l a rge n umbe r s o f S i er ra M iwok v i l lage s , s how a l l o f t h em w e l l b e low t h e s t udy a r ea s . F o r t h e l o ca l p a t te rn s , G if fo rd ( 1971) r epo r t s t h a t M iwok r e s idence w a s o rgan ized a round n ena 's , o r l i neage s , l i v ing i n i nd iv idua l h am le t s s u r rounded b y s ma l l t r ac t s o f l a nd .

T he l a nd b e tween t h e h am le t s w a s

" eve ry -man 's land " ( G if fo rd 1 97 1 :376 ) a nd w a s a l lowed f r ee a cce s s b y a l l .

K roebe r ( 1971 ) s uppo r t s t h i s a s se r t ion o f " t e r r i to r ia l i ty " b y c l a im ing

t ha t t h e " Ca l ifo rn ia I nd ian s g i ve t h e i mp r es s ion o fb e ing a t tached f i r s t o f a l l t o as po t , o r af ew m i les o f s t ream o r v a l ley . . . " ( K roebe r 1 97 1 :27 ) . T h i s p r eoccupa t ion w i th a p a r t icu la r s i te a s h ome w ou ld make s en se i f t h e i r c on t ro l o ve r t h e e nv i ronmen t r e a l ly w a s e f f ec t ive , b ecau se i tw ou ld a l low t h em t oe n joy t h e r e su l t s o ft h e i r mod if ica t ion s . T ime G iven k now ledge o f s ub s i s tence a nd s e t t lemen t , i tw ou ld b e u sefu l t o k now h ow l ong t h e a c t iv i t ie s w e r e c a r r ied o n i n t h e s t udy a r ea . Know ing t ime o f o ccupa t ion c ou ld g i ve i n s igh t i n to s ubs i s tence c hange a nd p opu la t ion g row th . T he r e d oe s n o t a ppea r t oh ave b een ac hange i n s ubs i s tence p a t te rn s , a s H e ize r ( 1971 ) s ays i n i t ia l s e t t lemen t o f t h e a r ea w a s b y m e ta te -u s ing h un te r s a nd c o l lec tor s , t h e s ame p a t te rn p r e sen t a t c on tac t .

H e e s t ima t es t h a t s e t t lemen t b egan 5 -6000 y ea r s a go , t hough

t h e o ldes t r ad ioca rbon d a te s h e c i te s a r e i n t h e 1 500 y ea r s b . p . r ange . Mora t to ( 1972 ) c i te s an umbe r o f s im i la r ly r e cen t d a tes i n h i s r ev iew , a nd K ing 's ( 1976 ) e xcava t ion s l i kew i se s how mo s t o f t h e d a te s i n t h i s r ange . P e rhaps a s ar e su l t o f t h is a nd o the r e v idence , L evy ( 1978 ) s ugge s t s t ha t M iwok o ccupa t ion o f t h e S i e r ra N evada o ccu r r ed a tt h e b eg inn ing o f t h e L a te H or izon , o r A . D . 3 00 -500 ( E l sa sse r 1 978 ) . T he M iwok w e re p robab ly t h e o r ig ina l o ccupan t s , s i nce t h e r e w e r e f ew c hange s o f t e r r i tory a mong d i f f e r en t c u l tu ra l g roups . C on tac t w i th Wh i te s o ccu r red i n t h e e a r ly to -m id 19 th c en tu ry i n t h i s a r ea ( Ha l l 1 978 ) , f o l lowed b y d ra s t ic d ec rea ses i np opu la t ion ( Cook 1 978 , H a l l 1 978 ) , s o t h e a r ea w a s mo s t l i ke ly o ccup ied f o r ap e r iod o f 1 000 -1500 y ea r s . Know ing

t h e

p e r iod

o f o ccupa t ion c ou ld h e lp

i n d e te rm in ing

whe ther t h e p opu la t ion w a s g row ing a t t h e t ime o f c on tac t o r h ad 2 0

s t ab i l ized . G iven t h e r ange i n t h e r ad ioca rbon d a te s , i ti si mpo s s ib le t o d o t h i s , b u t t h e r e a r e an umbe r o f e s t ima t e s o f p opu la t ion s i ze a tc on tac t t h a t may b e u sefu l . T he e a r l ie s t c a r efu l ly r e sea r ched e s t ima te i s K roebe r 's ( 1976 ) , w h ich p u t s t h e n umbe r o f S i er ra M iwok a to ve r 6 000 , w i th e ach d iv i s ion , N o r the rn , C en t ra l , a n S ou the rn , ab i t mo re t h an 2 000 . C ook 's ( 1955 ) e s t ima t e f o r t h e s ame a r ea i s 4 , 150 , c on s ide rab ly l e s s t h an K roebe r 's . B aumhof f 's ( 1963 ) e s t ima t es a r e much h ighe r t han e i the r , w i th a n e s t ima te f o r t h e C en t ra l g roup a t 4 , 400 , t h e S ou the rn a t 5 , 766 , a nd n o e s t ima te f o r t h e N o r the rn . H e i ss u rpr i sed a tt h e se e s t ima tes , b ecau se h i s p red ic t ion s f o r t h e p opu la t ion , b a sed o n t h e e s t ima ted c a r ry ing c apac i ty o f t h e a co rn s , f i sh , a nd g ame , a r e 8 , 547 a nd 8 , 503 , r e spec t ive ly . T h is i s f u r the r p uzz l ing t o h im b ecause t h e l i neage s y s tem , d e scr ibed e a r l ie r b y G if fo rd , wou ld s eem t op romo te max ima l l a nd u se . T he se d i sc repanc ie s , t a ken a s ag roup , i n d ica te h ow l i t t le i sc e r ta in , b u t i td oes s eem r e a son a b le t oa ccep t B aumho f f 's c on ten t ion t h a t t h e p opu la t ion w a s w e l l b e low c a r ry ing c apac i ty , i f o n ly b ecau se t h i s a ppea r s t o b e t r ue o f mos t h un te r -ga the re r g roup s ( Lee a nd D eVo r e 1 968 ) . S ummary Much o f t h e i n f orma t ion g iven h e re h a s b een t e n ta t ive , a nd s ome o f i th a s b een c on f l ic t ing . I n s p i te o f t h i s , i ti sp o s s ib le t od raw s ome c on c l u s ion s f r om t h e e t hnog raph ic r epor t s t h a t may h e lp i n u nde r s tand ing t h e s e t t lemen t p a t te rn s . F i r s t , t h e s t udy a r ea s , wh ich a r e l o ca ted a tf a i r ly h igh a l t i tude , w e r e p robab ly a r ea s o f s umme r r e s idence f o r g roup s m en t s l owe r d own .

w i th p e rmanen t s e t t le -

S pec if i c a r ea s w e re p robab ly c l a imed b y s pec if ic

l i neage s , wh ich o ccup ied t h em r epea ted ly . T he o r ig ina l o ccupa t ion o ft h e a r ea w a s r e la t ive ly r e cen t , mo s t l i ke ly i n t h e l a s t 1 500 y ea r s . T he o r ig ina l o ccupan t s a ppea r t o h ave u t i l ized f undamen ta l ly t h e s ame s ubs i s tence s t ra teg ies a s t h e f i na l o ne s , a nd w e r e p robab ly m embe r s o ft h e s ame c u l tu re . T he s ub s i s tence s t ra tegy w a s h un t ing -ga the r ing , w i th a co rn s t h e mo s t i mpor tan t s t ap le . F i sh a nd g ame w e r e a l so i mpo r tan t , a s w e re a l a rge n umbe r o f c o l lec t ed f ood s , o f g rea t v a r ie ty a nd l ow a bundance , w h ich s upp lemen ted t h e d i e t . T he u se o f f i re g ave c on s ide rab le c on t ro l o ve r t h e e nv i ronmen t , p a r t i cu la r ly o ve r s hrub v ege ta t ion , wh ich i nf luenced t h e d i s t r ibu t ion o f b o th p lan t s a nd a n ima l s .

T h i s c on t ro l r e su l ted i n ar e la t ive ly b oun t ifu l a nd

2 1

s e cu re s ub s i s tence b a se , a pp roach ing t h a t p o s s ib le w i th a g r icu l tu re . T he a c tua l s i ze o f t h e p opu la t ion i sh i gh ly p rob lema t ica l . I n fo rmed e s t ima tes d i f f e r c on s ide rab ly , a nd n e i the r p opu la t ion n o r d en s i ty c an b e e s t ima ted w i th a ny s e cur i ty . H oweve r , e ven t h e l a rge s t e s t ima t e i sh e ld b y t h e o ne w ho m ade i tt o b e c on s ide rab ly l owe r t h an t h e m ax imum n umbe r t h a t c ou ld h ave b een s uppo r ted . I mp l ica t ions f or Mod e l ing T he e t hnograph ic p i c tu r e s ugges t s an umbe r o f r e a son s w hy t h i s a r ea i s as u i tab le s ub jec t f o r a mode l t h a t p r ed ic t s a r chaeo log ica l s i te d ens i t ies f r om e nv i ronmen ta l f a c tor s . T he se r e a son s r e su l t f r om t h e s e a s ona l , h un te r -ga the re r l i f e s ty le , l ow d en s i ty o ccupa t ion , a nd s em i t e r r i tor ia l s oc ia l s y s tem , a l l o pe ra t ing o ve r ar e la t ive ly s ho r t p e r iod o f t ime . H un te r -ga the re r s a r e h e ld t ob e e xce l len t s ub jec t s f o r e co log ica l s t u d i e s b ecause t h ey " exh ib i t af a i r ly s t rong d eg r ee o f i n te rac t ion w i th t h e i r l o ca l e nv i ronmen t a nd a l im i t ed i n c l ina t ion t o mod ify t h a t e nv i ron m en t " (W in te rha lde r a nd Sm i th 1 98 1 : ix ) . T he l a s t p a r t o f t h a t s t a temen t i sd en ied g ene ra l ly b y t h o se w ho b e l ieve t h a t " hun te r -ga the re r s a c t ive l y .. .

m anage t h e i r r e sou rces , " ( Hunn a nd W i l l iam s 1 981 :1 , a u tho r s ' e mpha s i s ) a nd s pec i f ica l ly b y t h e a c t ion s o f t h e N a t ive C a l ifo rn ian s , w ho w e r e q u i te s ucce s sfu l a t mod ify ing t h e ir e nv i ronmen t . H oweve r , t h e i r i n te rac t i on w i th t h e i r e nv ironmen t w a s q u i te s t rong , a nd c on t ro l t h rough f i r e i s j u s t o ne mo r e a spec t o f t h i s i n te rac t ion . F ur the r , i ts e ems l i ke ly t h a t t h e s t reng th o ft h e i n te ra c t ion w i th l o ca l e nv i ronmen t i si n c rea sed b y s e a sona l i ty , b ecau se w hen m ovemen t i sf r e q uen t , s e t t lemen t l o ca t ion c an b e much mo r e r e spon s ive t o t h e d i s t r ibu t i on o f r e sou rces ( J och im 1 981) . S ince t h e M iwok w e r e m ov ing t o h ighe r a l t i tude s i n s umme r t og a in a cces s t or e sou rce s a va i lab le t h e r e , i t s e ems r e a sonab le t o a s sume t h a t t h o se r e sou r ces w e r e ak ey f a c to r i n d e term in ing s e t t lemen t l o ca t ion . A l so , s i nce p opu la t ion d en s i ty w a s l ow r e la t ive t o t h o se r e sou rce s , t h e l o ca t ion o f s e t t lemen t s c ou ld p robab ly b e f a i r ly " i dea l " , i n t h e s en se t h a t p eop le c ou ld l o ca te t h em se lve s mo re i n r e la t ion t of e a tur es o ft h e e nv i ronmen t t h an i nr e la t ion t oo t he r p eop le . T he s ugges t ion t h a t t h e e nv i ronmen t w a s o f h i gh i mpor tance i n l o ca t ing s e t t lemen t s i ss uppo r ted b y t h e s o c ia l s y s tem d esc r ibed e a r l ie r , i n wh ich l i neages o ccup ied s p ec if ic l im i ted a r ea s , s epa ra ted b y e xpan se s o f t e r r i tory a va i lab le t o a l l . I ts e ems l i ke ly t h a t l i neage a r ea s w ou ld b e o ccup ied b y s ucceed ing g ene ra t ion s , w h ich w ou ld l im i t p ro l if e ra t ion o f

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b r ief ly o ccup ied a r ea s . T he r epea ted o ccupa t ion o f s i te s i s i mpo r tan t b ecau se , d ue t o t h e l a ck o f e xcava t ion , t h e re w a s n o w ay t og ue ss t h e a ge o ft h e s i te s . A s a r e su l t , a na ly s i s h ad t o t r ea t t h em a s e f f ec t ive ly c on tempo raneou s . T h i s t r ea tmen t i sa lmo s t c e r ta in ly i n cor rec t , b u t i td oes a ppea r j u s t if iab le f o r p u rpo se s o fa na ly s i s . T he s i tua t ion , t h en , a ppea r s t o b e o ne i n wh ich t h e s e t t lemen t p a t t e rn w a s s t rong ly i nf luenced b y e co log ica l f a c to r s , a nd t h e a r rangemen t o f a r chaeo log ica l s i te s i s ar ea sonab le r e f lec t ion o f s e t t lemen t p a t te rn . T h i s i s ag ood s i tua t ion i n wh ich t o p r ed ic t a r chaeo log ica l s i te d en s i ty f r om e nv i ronmen ta l f a c to r s .

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C hap te r 3 OPERATING A SSU MPTIONS H av ing c onc luded t h a t t h e s t udy a r ea s h ad g ood p o ten t ia l f o r d eve lop ing ap r ed ic t ive mode l o f a r chaeo log ica l s i te d en s i ty , i tr ema ined t o c a r ry o u t t h e s t udy . T he r e w e re a n umbe r o f s t eps t o t h i s , d i v ided i n to t h ree m a jor c a tegor ie s . F i r s t , as e t o f o pe ra t ing a s sump t ion s t h a t c ou ld b e t e s t ed u s ing t h e i n forma t ion a va i lab le w e r e d eve loped . S econd , t h e i n forma t ion w a s t r an sformed i n to ad a ta b a se s u i tab le f o r a pp ropr ia te a na ly s i s . F ina l ly , t h e d a ta w e re a na lyzed . T he b a se a s sump t ion o f t h e s t udy w a s t h a t s ome l o ca t ion s a r e m o r e s u i tab le f o r p a r t icu la r h uman a c t iv i t ies t h an o the r s , a nd t h a t t h e r e a son s f o r t h i s d i f f e ren t ia l s u i tab i l i ty c an b e s t ud ied b o th i n d iv idua l ly a nd i n c omb ina t ion . T h i s i s ad ecep t ive ly s imp le a s sump t ion . I ti ss t a ted e a s i ly e nough , b u t i t s o pe ra t iona l iza t ion i sf a i r ly d i ff i cu l t . T he p rob lem o f w ha t m ake s o ne l o ca t ion mo r e a pp rop r ia te t h an a no the r f o r as pec if i c p urpo se i so ne t h a t t r aces i t s c u r r en t t h eme s b ack t h rough g eog raphy t o e conom ic s . T he r e a r e an umbe r o f d i f f e r en t t h eme s i n l o ca t iona l a na ly s i s , t h e mos t i mpor tan t o f w h ich t o a r chaeo l o gy a r e p robab ly c en t ra l p l ace t h eo ry , l a nd u se t h eo ry , a nd i n du s t r ia l l o ca t ion t h eo ry . O f t h e se , c en t ra l p l ace t h eo ry , p u t f o rwa rd b y C r i s ta l le r ( 1966 ) a nd L o sch ( 1954 ) , h a s r e ce ived t h e g r ea te s t t h eo re t ica l t r ea tmen t , p robab ly b ecau se o f i t s a t temp t t o d ea l c ompr ehen s ive ly w i th t h e e f f ec t s s e t t le m en t s h ave o n e ach o t he r 's l o ca t ion s . I t s mo s t i mpor tan t a s sump t ion i s t h a t " t he l o ca t ion o f m a rke t c en te r s w i l l b e d e te rm ined b y t h e c ompe t i t i ve f e a tu re s o f t h e m a rke t e conomy , s o t h a t a l l a r ea s o f d emand a r e s e r v i ced p ropor t iona l t od emand . " ( Sm i th 1 976 :10 ) W i th o t he r f a c to r s , s uch a s r e g iona l b ounda r ies a nd u neven r e sou rce d i s t r ibu t ion , a s sumed a way , t h e mo s t i mpor tan t i nf luence o n c en t ra l p l ace l o ca t ion i st h e l o ca t ion o f o t he r c en t ra l p l ace s . T he re i sa n e vo lu t i ona ry p a t te rn o f c en t ra l p l aces f i l l ing a n a r ea s equen t ia l ly .

T hey t e nd

t o b e p l aced e qu id i s tan t ly , r e su l t ing i n ar e gu la r , h exagona l g r id p a t te rn o f d i s t r ibu t ion . W i th in t h e p a t tern , s ome m a rke t s b ecome m o re i mpo r t a n t t h an o t he r s , r e su l t ing i nt h e h i e ra rchy t h a t c ha rac te r ize s c en t ra l p l ace

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s y s tem s . T he p a t te rn o f t h is h i e ra r chy t a ke s o n d i f f e ren t f o rms , d epend i n g o n w he the r t h e s y s tem i s o r ien ted t o m a rke t ing , t r an spor t , o r a dm in i s t ra t ion . I n s p i te o f i t s s oph i s t ica t ion , t h e p o ten t ia l a pp l ica t ion s o f c en t ra l p l ace t h eo ry t o a r chaeo logy a r e l im i t ed . E ven i n e conom ic s , t h e a pp roach i s an o rma t ive t h eory , r a the r t h an a n a na ly t ica l t e chn ique . T he r e a r e t wo m a jor p rob lems s pec if i c t oi t s u se i na r chaeo logy . F i r s t , i t i su sua l ly t h e c a se t h a t a r chaeo log ica l d a ta a r e l e s s c omp le te t h an t h o se o n e x i s t ing c u l tu r es , a nd s i nce t h e d emand s o n t h e q ua l i ty o f d a ta a r e f a i r ly s eve r e , t h is i so f ten a n o b s tac le . S econd , t h e mode l i si n app rop r i a t e t os i tua t ion s w he re t h e r e a r e n o t ma rke t c en te r s , o r a tl e a s t a n i mpo r t a n t u rban c omponen t , i n t h e s oc ia l s t ruc tu r e . S ince a g r ea t n umbe r o f t h e c u l tu re s s t ud ied a r chaeo log ica l ly a r e s ub s i s tence -ba sed , c en t ra l p l ace t h eory i so f ten i n app l icab le . Whe r e i ti s a pp l icab le , i n l a rge c u l tur e s w i th u rban c en te r s , t h e r e su l t s h ave b een m ixed . C en t ra l p l ace t h eo ry i sh i gh ly a bs t rac t , w i th many r e a l i s t ic f a c to r s i gno r ed t o k eep t h e v a r iab le s m anageab ly s imp le . R ea l l if e s i tua t ion s o f t en v i o la te t h e b a se a s sump t ion s , s o a pp l ica t ion o f t h e p r inc ip les i s s omewha t d ub iou s . H oweve r , e ven c on s ide r ing t h e se d oub t s , t h e r e h ave b een s ome i n s igh t s g a ined f r om i t s u se , a tl e a s t w he re t h e s t ruc ture o f t h e g roup s t ud ied i sa pp ropr ia t e , s uch a s R oman B r i ta in ( Hodde r 1 972 ) . O f t h e t h ree l o ca t iona l a na ly s i s t e chn ique s m en t ioned , t h e o ne t h a t h a s r e ce ived t h e g r ea te s t u se i n a r chaeo logy i sl a nd u se t h eory , f i r s t p u t f o rwa rd b y T hunen ( 1966 ) . H e a t temp t ed t od eve lop an orma t ive t h eo ry o f l a nd u se t h a t w ou ld d ef ine t h e mo s t l o g ica l w ay t ou se l a nd u nde r a g iven s e t o fc i r cum s tance s . T hese a s sump t ion s a r e e x t r eme ly l i m i t ing , i n o rde r t os imp l ify t h e r e s t o ft h e r e a son ing . T hey r e qu i r e t h a t t h e re b e n o v a r iab i l i ty i nt r an spor t c o s t e xcep t t h a t c au sed b y d i s tance , t h a t t h e p r ice o f g ood s i n t h e ma rke t b e d e term ined b y s upp ly a nd d emand , a nd t h a t t h e re b e n o b a r r ie r s t o t r ade a nd p roduc t ion o t he r t h an p r ice a nd c o s t . A s ar e su l t o f t h ese a s sump t ion s , t r an spo r t c o s t i n c r ea ses s t ead i ly w i th d i s tance f r om t h e m a rke t , a nd t h is i st h e m o s t i mpor tan t v a r iab le f a c to r i np roduc t ion . A s ar e su l t o f t h i s , t h e l a nd a r ound ag i ven s i te s hou ld b e u sed i na p a t te rn o f c oncen t r ic c i r c le s , w i th t h e h i ghe r i n ten s i ty a c t iv i t ie s l o ca ted i nt h e i n ne r z one s t ot a ke a dvan tage o ft h e r e la t ive ly l owe r t r an spor ta t ion c o s t s , a nd t h e l owe r i n ten s i ty a c t iv i t ies i nt h e o u te r r i ng s . I ti st h i s c on c ep t o f c oncen t r ic r i ngs o f u se a r ound a s i te t h a t h a s a t t rac t ed t h e a t ten t i on o f a r chaeo log i s t s . S ince t h ey a r e u sua l ly d ea l ing w i th s ubs i s tence 2 6

p eop les , mone ta ry c o s t o ft r an spo r t o r e ne rgy c an b e s ub s t i tu ted f o r i t . t i ve ly t od e term ine w ha t s hou ld b e t i ve ly t og ue s s w ha t w a s d one w i th

i sn o t r e a l ly af a c to r , b u t c o s t i nt ime R a the r t h an u s ing t h e t h eo ry n o rma d one w i th a n a r ea , i ti su sed d e sc r ip a n a r ea .

S i te c a tchmen t a na ly s i s , a s t h i s t e chn ique i su sua l ly c a l led , a s sume s t h a t t h e n ea res t r e sou r ces w e re t h e m o s t i mpo r tan t o ne s , a nd t h a t r e sou r ces c an b e r anked i n i mpor tance b y t h e i r d i s tance f r om t h e s i te . T h i s p rov ide s au sefu l s t a r t ing p o in t f o r s t udy ing s ubs i s tence a nd c u l t u ra l e co logy i n a nd a r cha eo log ica l c on tex t , a nd h a s b een u sed i n a n umbe r o f s t ud ie s w i th i n te res t ing r e su l t s ( e g . V i ta -F inz i a nd H igg s 1 970 , J a rmon 1 972 , R o s sman 1 976 ) . S t i l l , s i te c a tchmen t i ss ub jec t t o an umbe r o f c r i t ic i sm s , t h e mos t i mpor tan t o f w h ich w e r e p u t f o rwa rd b y F lanne ry ( 1976 ) . B y d e te rm in i n g t h e o r ig in s o f v a r iou s a r t if ac t s a t as i te , h e d emon s t ra ted t h a t t h e e mp i r ica l ly d e te rm ined c a tchmen t a r ea w a s n o t n ea r ly a s n ea t a s t h e o ne e xpec ted b y t h eo ry . H e a l so m ade t h e i mpor tan t p o in t t h a t t h e r e g ion a s awho le mus t b e a na lyzed b efo re t h e c on ten t s o f t h e c a tchmen t a r ea c an b e e xam ined i n p e r spec t ive . I n s p i te o f t h e se p rob lems , i ta ppea r s t h a t s i te c a tchmen t a na ly s i s i s au sefu l t e chn ique f o r p r e l im ina ry a na ly s i s . T he f i na l e conom ic t h eo ry m en t ioned a bove , i n du s t r ia l l o ca t ion t h eo ry (Webe r 1 929 ) , i st h e mo s t a pp l icab le t o my w o rk , i n s p i te o f i t s s omewha t u n l ike ly n ame .

I tw a s d eve loped t o s t udy t h e b es t l o ca t ion

f o r f a c to r ies i n r e la t ion t o r aw ma ter ia l s , a nd i tc ou ld j u s t a s w e l l b e c a l led " l oca t ion i n r e la t ion t o n a tura l r e sou rce s " . U nde r t h a t t i le , i t s a pp l ica t ion t os ubs i s tence s oc ie t ie s w ou ld s e em much mo re a pp ropr ia te . T he mo s t i mpo r tan t d i f f e r ence b e tween l a nd u se t h eo ry a nd i n du s t r ia l l o ca t ion t h eory l i e s i n d i f f e r en t a s sump t ion s r e ga rd ing t h e d i s t r ibu t i on o f r e sou rce s . L and u se t h eo ry a s sumes ac on t inuou s d i s t r ibu t ion , s o t h e mos t i mpor tan t d e t erm inan t o f l a nd u se i ss i te l o ca t ion , w i th d i s tance f r om t h e s i te d e te rm in ing t h e i n ten s i ty o fu se . I ndu s t r ia l l o ca t ion t h eo ry t a kes a d i rec t ly o ppo s i te p os i t ion , a s sum ing a d i sc r e te d i s t r ibu t ion o f r e sou r ce s , w i th t h e r e la t ive i mpor tance o f d i f f e ren t r e sou r ce s i nd i f f e ren t l o ca t ion s d e te rm in ing s i te l o ca t ion . Webe r 's i n ten t ion w a s t od eve lop ap u re t h eory o f l o ca t ion . S ta r t ing w i th g i ven r e sou r ce s , t h e g oa l i st of i nd t h e m os t r a t iona l l o ca t ion f o r a n a c t iv i ty . T h is c an b e e xp r e s sed i nt h e f or m o f a n e qua t ion . Where x ,y , z , e t c . a r e t h e r e la t ive w e igh t s a s s igned t o s ou r ce s o f r aw m a ter ia l o r m a rke t s , a nd a ,b ,c ,e t c . a r e t h e d i s tances f r om t h em t ot h e s i te , x a+yb+ zc+ . .. =m in imum

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f o r t h e b e s t l o ca t ion . D epend ing o n t h e a s s igned w e igh t s , s ome p o in t s o f p roduc t ion w i l l b e ma rke t o r ien ted a nd s ome w i l l b e ma te r ia l o r ien ted , t h e mos t i mpo r t a n t f a c tor b e ing t h e w a s te i nvo lved i n t h e manuf ac tu r ing p roce s s . I f t h e r e i s ag rea t d ea l o f w a s te , i tw i l l b e mo s t r a t iona l t ol o ca te t h e i ndu s t r y n ea r t h e r aw ma ter ia l , t o s ave t r an spo r t c o s t s , a nd i ft h e re i sv e ry l i t t l e w a s te , t h e p o in t o f p roduc t ion c an b e p u t n ea r t h e ma rke t . T h i s , wh i le h av ing l i t t le s uperf i c ia l r e levance t o s ub s i s tence s oc ie t ies , i sa c tu a l ly a n i mpor tan t p o in t , b ecau se d i f f e r en t e nv i ronmen ta l r e sou r ce s a l so d i f f e r i nt h e i rt r an spo r tab i l i ty . T he g oa l o f t h i s s t udy w a s t o p red ic t t h e l o ca t ion o f a r chaeo log ica l s i tes g iven k now ledge o f t h e d i s t r ibu t ion o f n a tu ra l r e sou r ce s . T h i s i s q u i te s im i la r t o Webe r 's o r ien ta t ion , b u t t h e re a r e i mpor tan t d i f f e r ence s . Webe r , b ecau se h e w a s t h ink ing i n t e rm s o f m ines , c i t ie s , a nd f a c to r ie s , t ended t o t r ea t r e sou r ces a s h av ing p o in t l o ca t ion s . T he r e sou rce s i mpor tan t t o h un te r -ga the r e r s d o n o t , a nd o f t en , a s i nt h e c a se o f at ype o f v ege ta t ion , may b e q u i te e x ten s ive . I n a dd i t ion , b o th r e sou rce i mpo r t a nce a nd d i s tance c o s t a r e h a rde r t o c a lcu la te i n as oc ie ty w i thou t money , p a r t icu la r ly o ne t h a t n o l o nge r e x i s t s . I n s p i te o f t h e p rob lems o f d e ta i l , h oweve r , t h e f undamen ta l p r inc i p l es o f i ndu s t r ia l l o ca t ion t h eo ry a nd t h i s s t udy a r e t h e s ame .

A c t iv i ty

s i tes a r e l o ca ted i n r e la t ion t o d i sc re te ly d i s t r ibu ted r e sou rce s t h a t a r e i mpor tan t t ot h em .

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C hap te r4 DATA CODING D i s tance Me thod s a nd Q uad ra t Me thod s H av ing d ec ided t h a t p r eh i s to r ic s e t t lemen t w a s s t rong ly i nf luenced b y t h e e nv i ronmen t , t h e p rob lems t ob e s o lved i nc a r ry ing o u t t h e s t udy b ecame mo re t e chn ica l . O ne o ft h e mo s t i mpo r tan t s t eps i no pe ra t iona l i z a t ion i st h e c r ea t ion o f t h e d a ta b a se , i nw h ich i n forma t ion f r om m ap s a nd r e po r t s i st r an sfo rmed t o s e rve a s ab a s i s f o r e xp lo r ing t h e u sefu l n e ss o f t h e a s sump t ion s . T h i s s t ep i sc r uc ia l , b ecause t h e f o rm o f t h e d a ta d e te rm ine s t o al a rge e x ten t w ha t k i nd s o f a na ly s i s c an a c tua l ly b e d one o n i t . T he refo re , c hoo s ing t h e f o rm o f t h e d a ta i n vo lves f i r s t c hoos ing at y pe o f a na ly s i s , ar e la t ion sh ip w h ich l e ad s C henha l l t os t a te s omewha t f i e rce ly , " The re i sn o s uch t h ing a s ag ene ra l -pu rpo se c om p u te r f i l e ; af i l e s e rves d ef ined p u rposes o r i td oe s n o t s e rve a ny w or thwh i le e nd . " ( Chenha l l 1 981 :2 ) Two t y pes o f a na ly s i s a r e c ommon ly u sed i n l o ca t iona l a na ly s i s : d i s tance m e thod s a nd q uad ra t m e thod s . D i s tance m e thod s u se t h e d i s t a nce s b e tween p o in t s o f k nown l o ca t ion , a nd t h rough av a r ie ty o f t e ch n i que s a na lyze e i the r t h e r e la t ion sh ips b e tween t h em o r t h e p o t en t ia l l o ca t ion s o f o ther p o in t s . A l l t h e g eog raph ica l a pp roache s o f t h e l a s t c hap te r m ake u se o fd i s tance m e thod s . Q uad ra t m e thod s d i v ide a r ea s i n to u n i t s o f a r b i t ra ry s hape , u sua l ly s qua res o r r e c tang le s , c a l led q uad ra t s . T he a na ly t ic t e chn ique s c om m on ly c ompa re t h e c on ten t s o f t h e q uad ra t s , s ea r ch ing f o r d i s t inc t a r ea s a nd t h e i r b ounda r ie s . T he u se o f q uad ra t s a s ab a s is f o r c od ing a nd a na ly s is o f d a ta i s c ommon i n e co logy ( c f . P i e lou 1 977 ) , a nd h a s b ecome mo r e f r equen t i ng eog raphy ( c f . R oge r s 1 974 ) a sw e l l . Q uad ra t s h ave b een u sed i n an umbe r o f a pp l ica t ion s i n a r chaeo logy i n t h e l a s t f ew y ea r s ( e g . C hadw ick 1 977 , 1 978 , F o ley 1 978 , S chne ide r a nd F ran tz 1 977 ) , a nd w i l l p robab ly b e u sed m o re f r equen t ly i nt h e f u tu r e . S ome a u thor i t ie s b e l ieve t h a t d i s tance m e thod s h ave g r ea te r p o t en t ia l u sefu lnes s i n a r chaeo logy t h an q uad ra t m e thod s ( Hodde r a nd O r ton 1 976 , O r ton 1 980 ) . T h is e va lua t ion i s c o r rec t w hen s t udy ing t h e a r rangemen t o f a r t i f ac t s o r k nown s i te s . I n o t he r s i tua t ion s , h oweve r ,

2 9

w he re e xac t l o ca t ion s a r e u nknown , o r whe r e t h e u se o f p o in t l o ca t ion s i si n app ropr ia te , q uad ra t m e thod s c ou ld b e p r ef e rab le . T he s upe r io r i ty o f t h e m e thod d epend s o n t h e a pp l ica t ion , b ecau se t h e m e thod s h ave d i f f e ren t p u rpo se s . T he f undamen ta l d i f f e rence b e tween d i s tance m e thod s a nd q uad ra t m e thod s i st h e t y pe o f s pa t ia l r e la t ion sh ip e xam ined . D i s tance m e thod s m igh t b e c a l led p o in t -po in t a na ly s is , s i nce t h ey s t udy t h e r e la t ion sh ip b e tween p o in t s a nd o t he r p o in t s . Q uad ra t m e thod s , i nc on t ra s t , c ou ld b e c a l led a r ea -a rea a na ly s i s , s i nce t h ey s t udy t h e r e la t ion sh ip b e tween a r ea s a nd o t he r a r ea s . F o r t h i s s t udy , q uad ra t m e thod s w e re c ho sen a s t h e mos t a pp ropr i a t e . S ince s i te l o ca t ion w ou ld n o t b e k nown i nt h e a r ea s t ob e p r ed ic ted , a nd t h e v a r iou s e nv i ronmen ta l f a c to r s w e re a r ea l i n n a tu r e , q uad ra t m e thod s s e emed t h e mos t a pp rop r ia te .

F o r b u i ld ing t h e mode l , w he r e

a r chaeo log ica l s i te l o ca t ion s a r e a l r eady k nown , s i te l o ca t ion c an b e t r ea ted a s ap rope r ty o f a n a r ea , r a ther t h an a s ap roper ty o f ap o in t . O bv ious ly , t h e f i na l p red ic t ion w i l l b e t h e d en s i ty o f s i tes w i th in a n a r ea r a the r t h an t h e e xac t l o ca t ion o f s i te s , b u t t h i s s hou ld n o t r educe t h e u se f u lnes s o ft h e mode l a s l o ng a st h e q uad ra t s a r e r e a sonab ly s ma l l . P rac t ica l C ons id era t ions i nQ uad ra t U se S hape , s i ze , a nd s amp l ing t e chn ique a r e a l l i mpo r tan t c on s ide ra t ion s f o r t h e u se o f q uad ra t s .

S qua r e s a r e t h e s hape mo s t c ommon ly u sed i n

a r chaeo logy ( c f . S chne ide r a nd F ran tz 1 977 , F o ley 1 977 , C hadw ick 1 978 , 1 979 ) , a nd t h a t w a s t h e s hape c ho sen f o r t h i s s t udy . G re ig -Sm i th ( 1957 ) s ugges t s t h a t r e c tang le s a l igned w i th t h e i r l o ng a xes p e rpend icu l a r t o t h e b ounda r ies o f e co log ica l z ones a r e mo r e e f f ec t ive t h an s qua r e s a td e tec t ing t h ose b ounda r ie s ( s ee F o ley 1 981 f o r a n e xamp le o f t h i s i n a n a r chaeo log ica l c on tex t ) . H oweve r , s i nce t h e c hange s o f e nv i ronmen t i n t h e s t udy a r ea d o n o t t a ke p l ace i n a ny p a r t icu la r d i rec t ion , s qua re s a ppea red t ob e t h e b es t s hape . T he s i ze o f t h e q uad ra t s w a s a no the r c on s ide ra t ion . G re ig -Sm i th ( 1957 ) s ugges t s u s ing t h e s ma l les t q uad ra t s i ze t h a t i sp ra c t ica l . T h i s v i ew i ss uppor ted i n a r chaeo logy b y S cho l tz a nd M i l l ion ( 1 981) , w ho p o in t o u t t h e n eed f o r g ood r e so lu t ion , a nd i n t h is s t udy b y t h e n eed , d i scu ssed a bove , t oa ch ieve ar e a sonab ly a ccu ra te p r ed ic t ion o f s i te l o ca t i on . T he s ma l le s t q uad ra t s i ze t h a t i s p r ac t ica l i n t h i s s t udy i s o ne q ua r te r -m i le o n as i de , s i nce t h a t i st h e a ccu racy l e ve l o f t h e v ege ta t ion t y pe m aps . T he a r ea i n c luded i n aq uad ra t o f t h a t s i ze , 4 0 a c r e s , i sa l so ac onven ien t s i ze f o r w o rk ing w i th m aps l a id o u t i n6 40 -ac re s e c t ion s . 3 0

S amp l ing s t ra tegy w a s d e term ined b y t h e r e la t ive s ho r tage o f a r chaeo log ica l d a ta . I tw a s n ece s sa ry t om ake a s much u se o f t h e i n for m a t ion a s p o s s ib le b y r e co rd ing i n fo rma t ion f r om a l l q uad ra t s . T h i s i s k nown a s " quad ra t c en su s ing " r a the r t h an " quad ra t s amp l ing , " w h ich i s t h e s e lec t ion o f q uad ra t s a t r a ndom . C en su s ing v i o la tes s ome a s sump t i on s o f r a ndomnes s , s i nce s i te l o ca t ion i n a d jacen t q uad ra t s i sc l ea r ly n o t i n dependen t , b u t t h is d oes n o t n ece s sa r i ly h ave as i gn if ican t e f f ec t o n t h e r e su l t s ( Roge r s 1 974 ) . I n a ny c a se , G r e ig -Sm i th ( 1957 ) p o in t s o u t t h a t i n m ea su r ing a s soc ia t ion , s amp les n eed n o t b e r andom . I ft h e n u l l h ypo the s i s , t h a t t h e r e i s n o c o r r e la t ion b e tween t h e o ccu r rence o f o ne v a r iab le a nd a no the r , i st r ue , a l l s amp les a r e s t a t is t ica l ly i n dependen t o f o ne a no the r . D a ta Ac omp le te s e t o fd a ta , i n c lud ing t o pog raphy , w a te r r e sou rce s , v ege t a t ion t ype , g eo logy , a nd a r chaeo logy , w a s r e co rded f o r e ach q uad ra t , w he the r o r n o t i tc on ta ined a n a r chaeo log ica l s i te ( s ee A ppend ix A ) . R eco rd ing i n forma t ion i n as y s tema t ic f a sh ion s uch a s t h i s , d i vo rced f r om t h e l o ca t ion o f a r chaeo log ica l s i tes , k eeps t h e e nv i ronmen ta l f a c to r s i n dependen t o f s e t t lemen t p a t te rn . T hey c an t h en b e u sed s t a t i s t ica l ly i n p r ed ic t ing a r chaeo log ica l s i te l o ca t ion . B ecause o f t h e q uan t i ty o f i n fo r m a t ion a va i lab le , e a ch t y pe o f i n fo rma t ion w a s r e corded i n as epa ra te r e co rd . T he e nd r e su l t w a s an umbe r o f r e co rd s f o r e ach q uad ra t , af o r m a t g ene ra l ly c a l led ad a ta b a se o rd a ta b ank ( Ga ines 1 981) . V ege ta t ion a nd g eo logy w e re t a ken f r om V ege ta t ion T ype a nd G eo l o g ic m ap s . S ince t h e v a r iou s t y pe s c ove r ac l ea r ly d e l inea t ed a r ea ( a t l e a s t o n amap ) , Is imp ly r e co rded t h e t y pe t h a t o ccur r ed i nt h e q uad ra t . When mo re t h an o ne t y pe o ccu r red , a l l w e re r e co rded , r ank ing t h em b y t o ta l a r ea . Wa te r r e sou r ce s w e r e r e co rded f r om U SGS t o pog raph ic m ap s , w he re t h ey a r e d i sp layed w i th ad i s t inc t ion b e tween p e renn ia l a nd i n te rm i t tei l t s t r eams . T h i s d i s t inc t ion w a s r e co rded a nd , i n a dd i t ion , s t ream o rde r w a s c a lcu la ted i n a cco rdance S t rah ie r 's ( 1952 ) mod if i ca t ion o f H o r ton 's ( 1945 ) s y s tem .

I n t h i s t e chn ique , t h e n umbe r a s s igned t o a

s t r eam i s b a sed o n t h e n umbe r o f o t he r s t ream s f e ed ing i n to i t . A s t r eam i s a s s igned a r a nk o f 1a t i t s s our ce , 2a f te r i tj o in s a no the r s t r eam , e t c . T h i s c onven t ion i sr e commended b y P log a nd H i l l ( 1972 ) i n t h e i r r ev i sed r e sea r ch d e s ign f o r t h e S ou thwe s t A rchaeo log ica l R e sea rch G roup b ecau se s t ream o rde r i s au se fu l a pp rox ima t ion o f w a te r shed a r ea .

3 1

I C rest s lope

I M ids lope

B ench

t errace

F igure 7 . L and f o rm C a t ego r i e s f o rD a t aC od ing .

T opog raph ic i n fo rma t ion w a s n o t a s c l ea r -cu t , s i nce If e l t t h a tj udge m en t w a s r equ i r ed t o r e co rd s ome i mpo r tan t k inds o f i n fo rma t ion . I t s eemed l i ke ly t ha t s ma l l sca le l a nd mo rpho logy w ou ld b e a n i mpo r tan t f a c to r , a nd t h i s f a c to r r e qu i r ed a n i n terp re ta t ion o f c on tour l i ne s . T he c a tegor ie s u sed w e r e b road a nd f a i r ly o bv iou s , i n c lud ing c r e s t s l ope , m id s lope , b ench , f oo t s l ope , a nd s t r eam t e r race ( F igu r e 7 ) . A s w i th v ege ta t ion t ype , when mo re t h an o ne l a nd fo rm o ccu r red , a l l w e re r e co rded , r anked b y a r ea . A s a mo re o b jec t ive s upp lemen t , s l ope w a s a l so r e co rded f o r e ach l a nd fo rm .

F ina l ly , t h e a l t i tude r ange a nd o ve ra l l

a spec t o fe ach q uad ra t w e re r e co rded . A r chaeo log ica l d a ta h ave a t e ndency t o b e e ven mo re s ub jec t ive t han l a nd morpho logy , s o a n e f for t w a s m ade t o r e co rd t h e d a ta i n a f o rm t h a t w ou ld h ave i n te r sub jec t c on s i s tency . T he mos t i mpo r tan t s t ep i n t h is d i rec t ion w a s t h e r e p lacemen t o f d e sc r ip t ive j udgemen t s o f s i te s , s uch " s ea sona l c amp , " w i th a f u l l l i s t ing o f c omponen t s , i n c lud ing b ed rock mo r ta r s , l i th ic f l ake s c a t te r s , m idden , h ou sep i t s , r o ck s h e l te r s o r c ave s , a nd o ve ra l l d imen s ion s . S ince t h ej udgemen t o f s i te t y pe i sb a sed o n t h ese v a r iab le s a nyway , i ts e emed b e s t t o a t temp t t o p r ed ic t t h e v a r i a b les , a nd l e t o the r s d raw t h e i r o wn c onc lus ion s . When mo re t han o ne s i te w a s l o ca t ed i n a q uad ra t , a l w e r e r e co rded .

When a s i te w a s l o ca ted i n mo r e t h an o ne q uad ra t , i tw a s

r e co rded s epa ra te ly f o r e ach u n i t , w i th a n e s t ima te o f t h e p ropor t ion o f t h e s i te l o ca ted t h e re .

T h i s w a s a no the r r e su l t o f t h e a r ea l e mpha s is o f

3 2

t h e p ro jec t . T he mo s t i mpo r tan t c on s ide ra t ion w a s n o t t h e l i ke l ihood o f d amag ing a c omp le te s i te i fw o rk ing i n av ague ly d ef ined a r ea , b u t t h e p robab i l i ty o f h a rm ing a ny a r chaeo log ica l r e sou rce s w ha t soeve r i fw o rk i n g i n ac l ea r ly d ef ined a r ea .

3 3

C hap te r5 DESCR IPT IVE ANALYSIS T echn iques o fA na ly s i s T he a na lys is w a s d one i nt wo s t ages . F i r s t , t h e d a ta f r om A nde r son w e r e f u l ly a na lyzed a nd a l o g l inea r mode l w a s c on s t ruc ted e xp re s s ing t h e r e la t ion sh ip b e tween e nv i ronmen ta l f a c to r s a nd s i te l o ca t ion i n m a thema t ica l t e rm s . T hen , t h a t mode l w a s a pp l ied t o B ea r a s ac heck o n i t s p r ed ic t ive a b i l i ty , b u t w i thou t f u r the r a na ly s i s . T he re w e r e an umbe r o f r e a son s f o r s e lec t ing A nde r son f o r f u l l a na ly s is . T he a r ea s u rveyed w a s l a rge r , a nd i tc on ta ined m any m o re s i te s ( 56 v e r sus 2 1) . B o th t h ese f a c to r s c on t r ibu ted t o t h e r e l iab i l i ty o f c onc lu s ion s b y i n c rea s ing t h e a moun t o f i n forma t ion u sed i n a na ly s i s . A l so , a s d e sc r ibed i n C hap te r 2 , A nde r son h ad mo re e nv i ronmen ta l d i ve r s i ty . T h i s r e duced t h e a dvan tage o f i t s l a rge r a r ea , b u t p rov ided a much g r ea te r r ange o fr e la t ion sh ips t ob e a na lyzed . T he d a ta f r om A nde r son w e r e a na lyzed b y t wo k ind s o f t e chn ique . T he f i r s t w a s d e sc r ip t ive , u sefu l f o r p r e l im ina ry a nd e xp lo ra to ry p u r p ose s . F r equency d i s tr ibu t ion s f o r e ach e nv i ronmen ta l v a r iab le w e r e c a l c u la ted f o r : ( 1 ) a l l q uad ra t s r e ga rd le s s o f s i te o ccu r r ence , a nd ( 2 ) q ua d ra t s w i th k nown s i te s . Whe r e t h e s hape o f t h e d i s t r ibu t ion s d i f f e red , i t s ugge s ted t h a t t h e e nv i ronmen ta l v ar iab le c ou ld h ave b een i mpor tan t t o s i te s e lec t ion . T h is t y pe o f a na ly s i s i g no re s s t a t i s t ica l s i gn if i cance , b u t i s u sefu l f o r d i scover ing a nd v i sua l iz ing r e la t ion sh ip s . T he s e cond t e chn ique w a s i n f e r en t ia l . T h is t e s ted t h e s t a t is t ica l s i gn if i cance o f t h e r e la t ion sh ip s s ugges ted b y d e scr ip t ive a na ly s i s . T he s i gn if ican t p a t te rn s w e r e t h en u sed t o d eve lop a m a thema t ica l mode l f o r d e sc r ib ing t h e r e la t ion sh ip s b e tween a r chaeo log ica l s i te l o ca t ion a nd e nv i ronmen ta l v a r iab le s . An umbe r o f t h e p a t te rn s s ugge s ted b y t h e d e sc r ip t ive a na ly s is w e r e e l im ina ted f r om t h e m ode l b ecause o f t h e i r l ow l e ve l o f s t a t is t ica l s i gn if icance . T h is s imp l if ied t h e mode l a t t h e c o s t o f e xc lud ing s ome i n te r e s t ing p a t tern s .

I n e xchange f o r t h i s l o s s o f r i chne ss , h oweve r , t h e

i n f e r en t ia l a pproach p roduced as t a t is t ica l ly d ef en s ib le mode l f o r p r ed ic t i n g a r chaeo log ica l s i te l o ca t ion s .

3 5

The Descriptive Approach The descriptive approach examined the role of environmental factors both singly and in combination. The roles of single factors were much easier to analyze, and the results were more reliable because of the greater number of examples. However, studying factors in combination was illuminating both because it revealed the importance of factor interaction, showing how powerful they can be in combination, and because it helped rank some factors. Results for Single Factors The environmental features strongly related to archaeological site location were topography, water resources, and vegetation (cf. Coombs 1979 who found the same factors to be important). Geology and eleva­ tion initially appeared to be important factors, but further examination showed them to be secondary, a conclusion later confirmed by inferential analysis. Topography Two aspects of topography proved to be important: landform and slope. Figure 8 shows the proportion of all quadrats and quadrats with sites by landform. Some landforms, particularly stream terraces and benches, appear to be utilized much more often than others. Slope, a more objective measure, also appears to be quite important. The frequency distributions by slope for all quadrats and quadrats with sites are markedly different (Figure 9). A more revealing way to display this relationship is to graph the proportion of quadrats with sites for each slope interval (Figure 10). This clearly suggests a strong relationship, with the proportion of quadrats containing all or part of one or more sites dropping sharply as the slope of the dominant landform gets steeper. The graph demonstrates a convincing relationship between slope and site location. It shows, for instance, that regardless of all . other factors, 67% of all quadrats in the study area with a slope between zero and ten percent contain at least part of a site. The proportion of quadrats with sites in the 60-70% slope category appears anomalous, but actually represents only one site and is the result of a hidden factor. The slope measurements for which frequencies were calculated were those of the dominant landform of the quadrat. In the case in question, the dominant landform was a midslope of 60%, the secondary one a bench with 15% slope. As might be expected, 36

Proportion

Crest slope

Midslope

Foot slope

Bench

Stream terrace

Landform

Figure 8. Proportion of Quad.rats by Landform (Unshaded: All Quad.rats, Shaded: Quad.rats with Archaeological Sites). 0.30 0.25 0.20 Proportion 0.15 0.10 0.05

0-10

10-20

20-30

30-40

40-50

50-60

60-70

70-80

Slope(%)

Figure 9. Proportion of Quadrats by Slope (Unshaded: All Quadrats, Shaded: Qua­ drats with Archaeological Sites).

37

0.7 0.6 0.5

Proportion

0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 ,:.:. :.:..,,;,. :,:,:,:,,.,:,:.:.:,:.:,:,: ,•,•,•,•,•,•,•,•,•,•,•,•,•,•,•,•.•.•.•,•···

0-1 0

10-20

20-30

30-40

Slope(%)

40-50

50-60

60-70

Figure 10. Proportion of Quad.rats with Archaeological Sites, by Slope.

examination of the site map showed the site to be located on the bench. While this obviously points out a flaw in the method, it seems to be a minor one, since it produced only one anomalous result.

Water Resources Applying this technique to water resources gives the results shown in Figure 11, with water resources listed in order of presumed reliability. Streams of different order are lumped together because the number of higher-order streams is small. There appears to be a relationship between water resources and site occurrence, but it is not as clear-cut as for slope or landform. In many cases, sites are located on quadrats with no water at all, and even the most reliable water resources are not util­ ized to the same degree as very flat land. It is worth mentioning that the low proportion for springs is prob­ ably due to factors other than usage. First, the number of quadrats with springs is very small (n=3), so it is not unlikely to find none of them used even if the rate of actual usage was very high. Also, the USGS map missed a spring adjacent to a site, which was found by the archaeo­ logical survey crew. This, combined with the map data, is illustrated by a dotted line. (Since the goal of this report is to predict site location and demonstrate the effectiveness of the method using only readily available 38

0 .4

0 .3

P ropo r t ion

0 .2

0 . 1

0 .0 N one

I n te rm i t ten t s t ream

S p r ing

P e renn ia l s t ream

Wa te rR esou rce

F igure 1 . P ropo r t ion o fQ uad ra t s w i th A r chaeo log ica l S i te s , b y Wa te rR e sou r ce .

d a ta , t h e e r ro r w a s n o t c or rec ted i no u r s t a t i s t ica l c a lcu la t ion s . ) V ege ta t ion V ege ta t ion i sc ommon ly t h ough t t o b e a n i mpor tan t f a c to r f o r t wo r ea son s . F i r s t , t h e v ege ta t ion t y pe i si mpo r tan t b ecause d i f f e r en t t ype s c on ta in d i f f e ren t k ind s o f u sefu l p l an t s i n d i f f e ren t q uan t i t ie s ( s ee B aumhof f 1 963 :176 f o r o ne s y s tem o f r ank ing v ege ta t ion t ype b y f ood r e sou rces ) . S econd , b o rde r s o r e co tone s b e tween t wo t ype s a r e t hough t t o b e e spec ia l ly g ood l o ca t ion s f o r s i tes b ecau se t h ey p erm i t u se o f t wo v ege ta t ion t ypes a nd t h e r efo re ag r ea te r v a r ie ty o fu sefu l p l an t s . T he f i r s t b e l ief , t h a t v ege ta t ion t y pe i si mpor tan t , w a s s uppor ted b y t h e se d a ta .

F igur e 1 2 s how s n o t iceab le d i f f e r ences i n p ropo r t ion s o f

q uad ra t s o ccup ied . T he s e cond a s sump t ion , t h a t e co tones a r e g ood l o ca t i on s f o r s i te s , w a s n o t s uppor ted . Among a l l q uad ra t s , 1 4% h ad s i te s . Among t ho se w i th mo r e t h an o ne v ege ta t ion t ype , i n d ica t ing a n e co tone , o n ly 1 % d id , a c tua l ly l owe r t h an q uad ra t s i ng ene ra l . T hough t h e se a r e i n te r e s t ing r e su l t s , t h e r e a r e r e a son s t o d oub t t h e v a l id i ty o f t h e i n terp r e ta t ion s

a s s igned t o t h em .

F i r s t , t h e V ege ta t ion

T ype maps a r e s omewha t a r b i t ra ry , a nd t h e re i s ac er ta in a moun t o f e r ro r b u i l t i n to t h e c l a s s if ica t ion p roces s . S ince t h e mapp ing p roce s s w a s c a r r ied o u t f r om v an tage p o in t s , o n ly s pec ie s v is ib le f ro m a bove a re

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V ege ta t ion T ype

F i gur e 1 2 . P r opo r t ion o fQ u ad r a t s w i th A r ch a eo log i ca l S i t e s , b y V eg e t a t ion T yp e ( S e e T ab l e 1f o rK ey t oT yp e s ) . i n c luded , e l im ina t ing c on s ide ra t ion o f u nde r s to ry v ege ta t ion .

F u r the r -

mo r e , t h e v ege ta t ion t y pes a r e d e s igna ted b y d om inan t s pec ies , s o d ef ined i fi tf o rm s 2 0% o r mo r e o ft h e t o ta l c r own c ove r o ccup ied b y i t s t ype e l emen t (W ie s lande r 1 936 :140 -14 1) . I n any c a se , t h e r e i sn o g ua ran tee t h a t mode m v ege ta t ion p rov ide s a n a ccu ra te a pp rox ima t ion o f t h e s i tua t ion e x is t ing j u s t af ew h und r ed y ea r s a go . Much o f C a l iforn ia h a s b een s ub jec t t o l ogg ing , m in ing , g raz ing , a nd o the r v ege ta t ion -a l te r ing a c t iv i t ie s , a nd t h i s , i nc omb ina t ion w i th i n t roduced p l an t s pec ie s , h a s a l te r ed v ege ta t ion p a t te rn s . P o ss ib ly t h e mo s t i mpo r tan t c hange i s i n c r ea sed f i re c on t ro l , o r , p e rhap s mo re a ccura te ly , d i f f e r en t t h eme s o ff i r e c on t ro l . I ts eem s c e r ta in t h a t i np r eh i s to r ic t ime s d e l ibe ra te b urn ing w a s u sed a s a n e f f ec t ive m ean s o f m a in ta in ing , o r e ven c r ea t ing , af avo rab le e nv i ronmen t ( c f . L ew i s 1 973 ) . G eog raphe r s a r e u nce r ta in o f i t s e xac t e co log ica l i mpac t , b u t t h e e f f ec t s p robab ly d i f f e r ed f r om p l ace t o p l ace ( Aschmann 1 959 :48 ) .

C on sequen t ly , t h e c e ssa t ion o f b u rn ing p robab ly

h ad d i f f e ren t c on sequences a l so , m ak ing t h e v a l id i ty o f moder n v ege ta t i on a s a n a pp rox ima t ion o f p r eh i s to r ic v ege ta t ion e x t r eme ly p rob lema t i c a l .

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T h i s p r esen t s ap a radox , b ecau se w h i le t h e v ege ta t ion o f t h e p r esen t m ay n o t c o r r e la te w i th t h e v ege ta t ion o f t h e p a s t , i td oe s c o r r e la te w i th t hs ove ied a i e i iaeo iug iea i s ue s . ia t lemp ted t or e duce t h e e i I ec t o i v ege t a t ion c hange o n t h e d a ta b y c o l laps ing s pec if i c v ege ta t ion t y pes i n to t h e i r b roade r c a tegor ie s f o r a na ly s i s . T he mo r e g ene ra l c a tegor ie s , s uch a s " s h rub , " w e re u sed i np l ace o f s pec if i c o nes s uch a s " cham ise c hapa r r a l " a nd " s agebru sh . "

S ince e co log ica l c hange u sua l ly c on s i s t s o f s ma l l

c hanges r a the r t h an l a rge o nes , u s ing l a rge c a tegor ie s i n s tead o f s ma l l o ne s s hou ld r educe t h e s en s i t iv i ty o f t h e c od ing s cheme t o v ege ta t ion c hanges o ve r t ime . R e -ana lyz ing t h e i nf luence o f v ege ta t ion t y pe a nd e co tone s u s ing b road v ege ta t ion c l a s se s s uppo r ted t h e p r ev ious r e su l t s . S h rub , w h ich i n c luded c hapar ra l , i sa s soc ia ted mo s t s t rong ly w i th s i te o ccur r ence , f o l l owed b y c on if erou s f o res t ( F igu re 1 3 ) . T he r e a r e t wo p os s ib le r e a son s f o r t h e a s soc ia t ion b e tween s h rub a nd t h e p r e sence o f s i tes , b o th r e la ted t o t h e u se o f f i re . F i r s t , s i nce s h rub v ege ta t ion c ou ld b e m anaged t o i n c rea se p roduc t iv i ty ( c f . L ew is 1 973 ) , i tw ou ld b e a n a t t ra c t ive p l ace f o r s e t t lemen t .

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B road V ege ta t ion T ype

F i gu r e 1 3 . P ropor t ion o f Q uad ra t s w i th A r chaeo log ica l S i te s , b y B road V ege ta t ion T ype .

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S econd , s i nce s h rub v ege ta t ion w a s s o e f f ec t ive ly m anaged , i tc ou ld b e a n a r t ifa c t o f s e t t lemen t , r a the r t h an as t imu lus f o r i t . I n o t he r w o rd s , i ti sp os s ib le t h a t s ome o f t h e p r e sen t -day s h rub v ege ta t ion w a s i n duced t h rough m anagemen t b y f i re . T h i s d oe s n o t a f f ec t i t s u t i l i ty a s ap r ed ic t o r o f a r chaeo log ica l s i tes , b u t i td oe s i n d ica te t h e d i ff i cu l ty o f e s tab l ish i n g c ausa l l i nk s . T he p ropo r t ion o f q uad ra t s w i th e co tones t h a t h ad s i te s i n c r ea sed f r om 1 % t o 1 6% when o n ly b o rde r s b e tween b road t y pes w e re c on s i de r ed . T h is i s s t i l l n o t much h i ghe r t h a t 1 4% , t h e p ropor t ion o f a l q uad ra t s t h a t h ave s i te s , s o e co tone s , w he the r t h e c l a s s if i ca t ion o f v ege t a t ion i sb road o r n a r row , d o n o t s e em t ob e a n i mpor tan t f a c to r o n t h i s s c a le .

I ti s o n ly f a i r t o p o in t o u t i n d ef en se o f t h o se w ho s t r e s s t h e

i mpo r tance o f e co tones t h a t t h ey g ene ra l ly d ef ine t h em d i f f e r en t ly t h an w a s d one h e re ( e g . G unn 1 979 ) .

I n t h e i r a na ly ses , e co tone s a r e b road

t r an s i t iona l a r ea s b e tween e co log ica l z one s , r a the r t h an b o rde r s b e tween v ege ta t ion t ypes . F ina l ly , i t i s i mpo r tan t t o r emembe r t h a t m any s i te s e s caped d i scove ry , a nd t h a t v ege ta t ion i s am a jo r f a c to r i nt h i s . I n t h e c ou r se o f as ur f ace s u rvey , i ti s mor e d i ff i cu l t t o d i scove r a r chaeo log ica l s i tes i n s ome t y pes o f v ege ta t ion t h an o t he r s . T he r efo r e , t h e c or re la t ion b e tween c ur r en t v ege ta t ion a nd s i te l o ca t ion may b e d ue p a r t ly t o t h e e a se o f d i scove ry r a ther t h an t o p r eh i s to r ic u se p a t tern s . Wh i le t h i s d i s t inc t ion b e tween d i scove rab le s i te s a s o pposed t o e x i s t ing s i te s c an o ccur w i th a ny e nv i ronmen ta l f a c to r , i ti sp robab ly s t ronge s t w i th v ege ta t ion . A s a r e su l t , i ti sd i ff icu l t t o i n terp re t t h e r o le o f v ege ta t ion i n s e t t lemen t f r om t h e se r e su l t s . G eo logy T he r e p resen ta t ivenes s o f mode rn g eo logy f o r p a s t g eo logy i s much mo r e c e r ta in , b u t g eo logy h a s l e s s v a lue f o r p r ed ic t ing s i te s . A t f i r s t g l ance , i ts e ems t ob e q u i te i mpor tan t , w i th g r an i te p r ef e r r ed o ve r p a leo z o ic m a r ine ( F igu re 1 4 ) . H oweve r , t h is a ppea r s t o b e d ue t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h e ma jor i ty o f q uad ra t s w i th ag ran i t e s ubs t ra te a r e o n f l a t g round ( F igu r e 1 5 ) . T he c or re la t ion w i th g eo logy d oe s a ppea r t o h ave s ome m ean ing , h oweve r , b ecau se t h e p r e sence o f f l a t l a nd a ppea r s t o b e r e la ted t o t h e p r esence o f g ran i te .

I n A nde r son , t h e g eo log ica l s t ra ta a r e l a ye r ed

r ough ly h o r izon ta l ly , w i th p a leozo ic m a r ine a bove g r an i te . T he p a leo z o ic m a r ine d epo s i t s e r ode m o re e a s i ly a nd q u ick ly t h an g ran i te , s o t h a t t h e h i l ls c an b e t h ough t o f a s s t eep -s ided " l umps " o f p a leozo ic m a r ine 4 2

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G eo log y F igure 1 4 . P ropo r t ion o fQ uad ra t s w i th A r chaeo log ica l S i te s , b y G eo logy . 1 . 0 0 .9 0 .8 0 .7 0 .6 P ropo r t ion

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F igure 1 5 . P ropor t ion o f Q uad ra t s w i th aG iven G eo logy , b y S lope ( C ro s s -ha tched : G ran i te , L igh t S had ing : P a leozo ic Ma r ine , D a rk S had ing : B a s ic I n t ru s ive ) .

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deposits resting on flat, less eroded "slabs" of granite (Figure 16), an explanation that ties in nicely with the greater proportions of both flat ground and granite in Bear mentioned earlier. This is a useful indication of the importance of geological weathering patterns. These patterns also affect the distribution of site components, as will be shown later. Factors in Combination These individual factors were also important in interaction with each other. Exploring the patterns of interaction was complicated, but did produce some interesting results. Examining the effects of slope and water resources in combination, for instance, suggests two interesting conclusions. One is that if either factor is extremely favorable, it can compensate, to a certain extent, for limitations in the other. This seems logical and natural. The other conclusion, less expected and possibly less generally applicable, is that slope may have had more influence on settlement choice than water resource. The compensation of one factor for another can be illustrated by dividing up quadrats by water resources and graphing the proportion of quadrats with sites by slope. This shows clearly that as the reliability of water resources increases, the proportion of quadrats utilized for sites, especially in areas of steep slope, increases as well (Figure 17). Favor­ able water resources appear to have increased the toleration of steep slope. The curve for intermittent streams is not as smooth as the others, which may be due to three factors. First, "intermittent" is a fairly broad category, and includes varying degrees of intermittency. Second, inter­ mittency of any degree cannot be verified without regular checks through several seasons. It is quite possible to decide that a drainage which is actually dry will run sometimes, or that a small perennial stream must be dry sometimes, leading both to be classified erroneously. The study area lies on two different topographic maps, and one drainage changed . classification from dry to intermittent exactly on the border, leading one to suspect that judgement plays an important, and occasionally contradic­ tory, role. Finally, time may be as important a factor for water resources as it was for vegetation. More than 1000 years have passed since initial settlement, and a number of changes in the availability of water have probably occurred since then. The conclusion is that slope is more important than water resource is not as clear-cut as that of compensation, but still appears strong. Examining the same graph (Figure 17) shows that even with no water

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F igure 1 6 . Ma r ine ) .

H ypo the s ized E ro s ion S equence ( S t ipp led : G ran i te , S haded : P a leozo ic

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F igure 1 7 .

P ropo r t ion o f Q uad ra t s w i th A r chaeo log i ca l S i te s , b y S lope a nd Wa te r

R e sou rce ( Shaded : None , Wh i te : I n te rm i t t en t S t ream , B lack : P e r enn ia l S t r eam ) . 1 .0 0 .9 0 .8

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F igure 1 8 . P ropo r t ion o fQ uad ra t s w i th A rchaeo log ica l S i te s , b y S lope f o r Q uad ra t s W i th aC onf luence o f S t ream s , O ne o f Wh ich i sP e r enn ia l .

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r e sou rces , f l a t l a nd i su t i l ized q u i te f r equen t ly , w he rea s s t eep ly s l op ing l a nd w i th e xce l len t w a te r r e sou rce s i sn o t u t i l ized f o r s i te s a ta l l . M i ld ly s l op ing l a nd i su sed t o i t s g r ea te s t e x ten t n ea r ac onf luence o f s t r eam s c on ta in ing a tl e a s t o ne p e r enn ia l ( F igu re 1 8 ) . T he s t r eng th o f t h is r e la t ion sh ip , w h ich i sn ea r ly p e r f ec t , i ss u rp r i s ing , s i nce ac onf luence o f ap e renn ia l a nd a n i n term i t ten t s t r eam w i l l p robab ly n o t b e a ny m o re r e l iab le aw a te r s ou r ce t h an j u s t ap e renn ia l s t ream . I ti sp o s s ib le t h a t i n d rough t y ea r s , t h e c onf luence w i l l b ecome a n a r ea o f r e s idua l p oo l s f i l led b y u nde rg round s ou r ces , b u t t h i s w ou ld p robab ly b e ar a re o ccu r rence , e ven c on s ider ing t h a t t h i s w a s p robab ly a n a r ea o f s umme r o ccupa t ion . T he r e a son f o r t h i s e xcep t iona l ly s t rong r e la t ion sh ip i s p robab ly r e la ted t of a c to r s o the r t h an w a te r i t se lf . T he re a r e an umbe r o f p os s ib le r e a son s f o r c onf luences t o b e f a vo r ed . F i r s t , ac onf luence o f s t reams i so bv iou s ly a l so ac onf luence o f d r a inage s . A s s uch , i tw ou ld p rov ide c onven ien t a ccess t o ag r ea te r a r ea t h an a s po t w i thou t s uch a j unc t ion , s i nce t h e e a s ie s t t r ave l l ing i n a d r a inage i s u sua l ly a l ong i t s b o t tom . F u r the r , s i nce t h e j unc t ion i n n ea r ly a l l c a ses i n c lude s a n i n term i t ten t s t ream a s w e l l a s ap e r enn ia l , i t i sl i ke ly t h a t t h e d r a inages a r e o f s i gn if i can t ly d i f f e r en t c ha rac te r , s o t h e r a nge i n t h e t ypes o f a r ea s t h a t c an b e e xp lo i ted i sp robab ly g r ea te r a s w e l l . F ina l ly , f i sh ing i su sua l ly b e t te r a tc onf luences a s ar e su l t o f t h e p r e sence o ft wo s t ream s f e ed ing n u t r ien t s i n to o ne a r ea . C on s ide ra t ion o f f i sh ing b r ings u p a n i n te re s t ing s pecu la t ion . I ti s p o s s ib le t h a t , s i nce w a te r i n t h e q uan t i t ies n ece s sa ry f o r c ook ing a nd d r ink ing i sf a i r ly t r an spor tab le , c on sump t ion i sn o t t h e o n ly i mpor tan t c on s ide ra t ion i n s i t e l o ca t ion w i th r e spec t t o w a te r r e sou r ce s . H un t ing c ou ld b e e a s ie s t a nd m o s t r e l iab le a tg ame w a ter ing h o les . I ft h i s w e r e a m a jo r c on s ide ra t ion , i tw ou ld e xp la in t h e e x ten s ive u se o f f l a t l a nd w i th n o w a te r r e sou rce s , s i nce l i v ing t o o c l o se c ou ld f r igh ten o f f g ame . L iv i n g s ome d i s tance a way c ou ld g r ea t ly i n c rea se g ame u sage w i thou t g r ea t ly i n c r ea s ing t h e e f for t o f t r anspor t ing w a te r . S ince t h e e qu iva len t i sn o t p os s ib le f o r s l ope , t h is c ou ld p a r t ia l ly e xp la in t h e p r ecedence o f s l ope o ve r w a te r r e sou r ce s . T he D i s t r ibu t ion o fS i te C omponen t s S ince s i te t y pe i su sua l ly t h e c r i te r ion o n w h ich s i te p ro tec t ion a nd s a lvage d ec i s ion s a r e b a sed , a nd a l so t h e o ne w h ich d e te rm ine s h ow c o s t ly a nd t ime -con sum ing t h e s a lvage p rocedu res w i l l b e , t h e a b i l i ty t o p r ed ic t w ha t c omponen t s as i te w i l l c on ta in i sn ea r ly a s i mpor tan t f o r p l ann ing a s t h e a b i l i ty t o p r ed ic t s i te l o ca t ion . I t i s a l so e x t reme ly 4 7

i n te r e s t i ng f r om a c u l tu ra l e co logy p e r spec t ive , s i nce i ts t ud ies l a nd u se i nt h e c on tex t o f e nv i ronmen ta l f a c to r s . S t udy ing t h e d i s t r ibu t ion o f s i te c omponen t s i n vo lved t a k ing p r opo r t i on s o f p ropor t ion s . I n ag i ven e nv i ronmen ta l s e t t ing , ac e r ta in p ropo r t i on o f q uad ra t s c on ta in s i te s . I n t u rn , ac e r ta in p ropo r t ion o f t h e s i te s c on ta in a g i ven c omponen t . T h i s b eg in s t o i n vo lve v e ry s ma l l s amp le s i zes , s i nce t h e r e a r e o n ly 5 7 s i te s i na l l . T he refo r e , t h e c onc lu s ion s t h a t f o l low a r e mo r e s pecu la t ive t h an t h ose a l r eady d i scu s sed .

H oweve r ,

s ome o f t h em h ave i mpo r tan t i mp l ica t ion s , a nd s i nce t h e s pecu la t ion i s f a i r ly s o l id ly b a sed , t h ey d e se rve t ob e l i s ted . P robab ly t h e mo s t i mpo r tan t c omponen t f o r p l ann ing p u rposes i s m idden , w h ich i n t h e u sage o f C a l ifo rn ia a r chaeo logy c ommon ly r e f e r s t o s o i l d a rkened b y t h e d ecayed o rgan ic r e fu se o f o ccupa t ion . M idden f o rma t ion t a kes a l o ng t ime , a nd u sua l ly i n d ica te s l o ng te rm o ccupa t ion . T he s a lvage p roce ss u sua l ly r e qu i re s s ome e xcava t ion f o r a ny s i te , b u t o n s i te s w i th m idden t h e n eed i so f ten much g r ea te r . T he p roce ss m ay t h e refo re b e mo r e e xpen s ive a nd t ime -con sum ing t h an f o r s i te s w i thou t m idden . T he p r e sence o f m idden o n as i te d oe s n o t c or r e spond s t rong ly t o w a te r , b u t o n ly t os l ope . T he d i s tr ibu t ion o f s i tes w i th m idden b y s l ope , h oweve r , h a s a n u nexpec ted s hape ( F igu r e 1 9 ) . On a n i n tu i t ive b a s i s , i t w ou ld s e em t h a t t h ose c ha rac te r i s t ic s w h ich a r e i mpo r tan t i n s e lec t ing a s i te w ou ld b ecome e ven mo re i mpo r tan t w hen s e lec t ing a s i te t o b e o ccup ied b y l a rge n umbe r s o f p eop le f o r al o ng t ime . S lope i sv ery i mpor tan t i n s i te s e lec t ion , s o o n t h e b a s i s o f t h i s r e a son ing , o ne w ou ld e xpec t t h a t i tw ou ld b e e x t r eme ly i mpo r tan t i ns i te s w i th m idden . H oweve r , t h e d i s t r ibu t ion c urve d oe s n o t r e f lec t t h i s . I td rop s v e ry s l ow ly f o rm 0% t o5 0% s l ope , w he re i tt h en f a l ls r a p id ly t oz e ro . S ince t h e re a ppea red t o b e n o c l ea r r e la t ion sh ip o f s i te l o ca t ion t o w a te r r e sou r ces o r v ege ta t ion , i ts e ems t h a t t h i s p a t te rn c anno t b e e xp la ined d i r ec t ly i nt e rms o f e nv i ronmen ta l f a c tor s . I td oes s e em p o ss ib le , h oweve r , t o e xp la in i ti n d i r ec t ly . T he d i s t r i b u t ion c urve f o r b ed rock m or ta r s b y s l ope a l so s e ems d ec ided ly p ecu l ia r a tf i r s t , p eak ing a t2 0 -30% s l ope r a the r t h an a t0 10% a s d o t h e c urve s f o r s i te l o ca t ion a nd m idden ( F igu r e 2 0 ) . T he s imp le s t e xp lana t ion f o r t h is w ou ld b e i n t e rms o f u nde r ly ing g eo logy . T h i s h a s c on s ide rab le m e r i t , s i nce i t i s g ene ra l ly b e l ieved t h a t g r an i te w a s t h e p r e f er red m a te r ia l f o r b ed rock mo r ta r s . K roebe r t a lk s a s t h ough o n ly g r an i te w a s u sed ( Kroebe r 1 976 :448 ) , a nd w h i le t h is i sr e cogn ized a s e xagge ra ted ,

4 8

0 .8 0 .7 0 .6 0 .5 P ropo r t ion

0 .4 0 .3 0 .2 0 . 1 0 .0 0 -10

1 0 -20

2 0 -30

3 0 -40

4 0 -50

5 0 -60

6 0 -70

7 0 -80

S lope ( % )

F igure 1 9 . P ropo r t ion o fA r chaeo log ica l S i te s w i th M idden , b y S lope . 0 .9 0 .8 0 .7 0 .6 0 .5 P ropo r t ion 0 .4 0 .3 0 .2

-

0 . 1 0 .0 0 -10

1 0 -20

2 0 -30

3 0 -40

4 0 -50

5 0 -60

6 0 -70

7 0 -80

S lope ( % )

F igure 2 0 . P ropo r t ion o fA rchaeo log ica l S i te s w i th B ed ro ck Mo r t a r s , b y S lope .

4 9

t h e p r ef e rence i sw ide ly a ccep ted . I t makes s en se t h a t t h i s p ref e r ence s hou ld e x i s t , g iven t h e n a tu r e o f g ran i te . I ti s ah a rd , d u rab le i gneou s r o ck . I t s a b ra s ivene ss i st h e r e su l t o f t h e c ry s ta l l ine s t ruc tu re t h a t f o rms d u r ing t h e c oo l ing p roce s s r a the r t han t h e b ond ing o f c oa r se p a r t ic le s . I t s c omb ina t ion o f c ha rac te r i s t ic s make s i te x t r eme ly s u i tab le f o r u se a s ag r ind ing s ur f ace i n c ompa r i son w i th s ed imen ta ry r ock s s uch a s l imes tone s , w h ich a r e n o t p a r t icu la r ly a b ra s ive , o r s and s tones , w h ich a r e n o t p a r t icu la r ly d u rab le . A l though i t s p ref erence i sl og ica l , t h is p r ef e r ence n eve r s e em s t oh ave b een t e s t ed . I tw a s t e s ted a s p a r t o f t h i s s t udy , a s p a r t o f t h e p roce s s o f e xp la in i ng t h e s l ope d i s t r ibu t ion o f b ed rock mo r ta r s , a nd f ound t o b e v a l id . T he p ropo r t ion o f s i te s w i th b ed rock mor ta r s w a s c on s ide rab ly h ighe r f o r q uad ra t s w i th g ran i te s ub s t ra te t h an f o r q uad ta t s w i th p a leozo ic ma r ine ( 89% v e r sus 1 % ) . T h is i s s o l id s uppo r t f o r ac onc lus ion a l ready w ide ly a ccep ted , t h a t g ran i te w a s t h e p ref e r red ma te r ia l f o r b ed rock mor ta r s . I td oes n o t , h oweve r , e xp la in t h e d i s t r ibu t ion o f b ed rock mo r ta r s b y s l ope u n le ss g ran i te h a s t h e s ame d i s t r ibu t ion a nd t h e d i s t r ibu t ion s a r e n o t a ta l l s im i la r . T he g rea te s t p ropor t ion o f q uad ra t s w i th g ran i te s ub -

-

s t ra te i si n t h e 0 10% s l ope c a tego ry , w he r e t h e p ropor t ion o f s i tes w i th b ed rock mor ta r s i sc ompa ra t ive ly l ow ( F igu re s 1 5 a nd 2 0 ) .

I n f a c t , t h e

s l ope s o f t h e t wo c u rves move i n o ppo s i te d i r ec t ion s u p t o t h e 2 0 -30% s l ope c a tegory , t h e p ropor t ion o f s i tes w i th b ed rock mo r ta r s i n c rea s ing a s t h e p ropor t ion o fq uad ra t s w i th g ran i te d ec r ea se s . T he re i s a no the r e xp lana t ion t h a t i s a pp ropr ia te t o t h i s p a t te rn , r e la ted t o g eo log ica l d epos i t ion . I ti so bv iou s t h a t , e ven i n t h e p r e sence o f ag ran i te u nde r s tory , e xposed r o ck i sn ece ssa ry f o r b ed rock mor ta r s . I ti sa l so t r ue t h a t l a rge f l a t a r ea s w i l l b e p r ima r i ly a l luv ia l i n n a tu r e , d epos i ted b y w a te r a c t ion f r om e r od ing s l ope s .

T h i s a c t ion i su n l ike ly

t o c a r ry d own t h e l a rge b ou lde r s n ece s sa ry f o r b ed rock mor ta r s , a nd i s l i ke ly t oc ove r e x i s t ing o u tc rops w i th f i ne r m a te r ia l . F ie ld e xam ina t ion o f t h e s t udy a r ea c onf ir m s t h i s p o in t .

T her e a r e

o f ten g r ea t e xpan se s b e tween g ran i te o u tc rop s i n t h e b o t tom lands , w h i le t h ey a r e c l o se ly p acked o n t h e h i l l s ide s . A n a c tua l s t udy o ft h e i r d en s i ty w a s n o t p o s s ib le , b u t a n h ypo the s ized c ur ve b a sed o n as imp le a s sump t i on f i t s t h e a c tua l d i s t r ibu t ion f a i r ly a ccu ra te ly f o r m i ld s l opes .

I fi ti s

a s sumed t h a t a l l s u i tab le o u tc rops w e r e u t i l ized , a nd t h a t 6 0% o f a l l q ua d ra t s w i th 0 10% s l ope h ad s u i tab le o u t c rop s , w i th t ha t p ropor t ion i n c rea s ing a n a dd i t iona l 1 5% f o r e ach 1 0% i n c r ea se i n s l ope c a tego ry ,

5 0

1 . 0 0 .9 0 .8 0 .7 0 .6 P ropo r t ion

0 .5 0 .4 0 .3 0 .2 0 . 1 0 .0 0 -10

1 0-20

2 0 -30

3 0 -40

4 0 -50

5 0 -60

6 0 -70

7 0 -80

S lope ( % )

F igure 2 1 . Mode l : P ropo r t ion o f A rchaeo log ica l S i te s w i th B ed rock Mor ta r s ( C ro s sha tched : P ropo r t ion o f Q uadra t s w i th E xpo sed R ock , S haded : P ropo r t ion o f E xpo sed R ock U t i l ized , B lack : B o th F ac to r s i nC omb ina t ion ) .

t h e h ypo the s ized c urve m a tche s t h e a c tua l o ne f a i r ly c l ose ly u p t o 2 0 3 0% s l ope ( F igu re 2 1 ) . T he q ue s t ion o f w hy t h e c u rve d rops a t t h a t p o in t i s mo r e p rob l ema t ica l . T he re a r e a tl e a s t t wo p o s s ib le e xp lana t ion s , n e i the r o f w h ich i se a sy t or e jec t n or e n t i r e ly c onv inc ing . T he f i r s t c on t inue s t h e g eo log i c a l e xp lana t ion . T he c u rve i lu s t ra t ing t h e d i s t r ibu t ion o f g r an i te b y q ua d ra t b y s l ope s how s as ha rp d ropof f a t 3 0 -40% s l ope . S ince , a s i lu s t r a t ed e a r l ie r , g ran i te i st h e p r e f er red m a te r ia l , t h e d ec r ea se i n g ran i te c ou ld e xp la in t h e d ec r ea se i n b ed rock m or ta r s . H oweve r , t h e c urve f o r b ed rock mo r ta r s d rops o f f l a te r a nd s l owe r t h an t h a t o f g r an i te . T he o t he r e xp lana t ion i sr e la ted t o u t i l iza t ion .

S ince t h e c urves f o r

o the r t y pe s o f u t i l iza t ion o f l a nd d rop o f f w i th i n c r ea s ing s l ope , i tw ou ld b e r e a sonab le t o a s sume t h a t t h i s o ne d oes , t o o . I f w e m od ify t h e a s sump t ion s o t h a t u t i l iza t ion d r ops a tt h e r a te o f 1 5% w i th e ve ry s l ope c a tego ry , b eg inn ing w i th 2 0 -30% , t h en t h e c omb ina t ion o f d epos i t ion a nd u t i l iza t ion p roduce s ac ur ve t h a t c l o se ly m a tches t h e a c tua l o ne ( F ig u re 2 1) . T h i s d ropof f m ake s s en se , s i nce s t eep s l ope s a r e u sua l ly w e l l u p h i l ls ide s , w h ich w ou ld m ake f r equen t u se o f t h em a sf ood p roce s s ing s t a t ion s d i ff icu l t . H oweve r , t h is mode l w a s c on s truc ted a f ter t h e f a c t a nd

5 1

c anno t b e t e s ted . A s m en t ioned e a r l ie r , t h e d i s t r ibu t ion o f s i te s w i th m idden b y s l ope a l so h a s a n u nexpec ted s hape , w i th a f a i r n umbe r o f s i te s w i th m idden o n f a i r ly s t eep g round . T ha t t h e m idden c urve d rops s o s l igh t ly i n t h e s ame r a nge t h a t t h e b ed rock mo r ta r s c u rve i sp eak ing ( F igu r e s 1 9 a nd 2 0 ) s ugges t s t h e re m ay b e ar e la t ion sh ip b e tween t h e t wo . T o s uppor t t h e h ypo thes i s t h a t t h e l a te p eak i nb ed rock m o r ta r s i sr e la ted t ot h e f l a t c u rve i n m idden , i tm us t b e s hown t h a t m idden o ccu r s mo re f r equen t ly o n s i tes w i th b ed rock mor ta r s t h an s i te s w i thou t t h em . T h i s i s al o g ica l c onc lus ion , s i nce b ed rock m o r ta r s w e re p roce s s ing s i te s f o r a corns , t h e mo s t i mpo r tan t s t ap le f ood . T h is c onc lu s ion i ss uppor ted b y t h e d a ta . O ve ra l l , 4 7% o f t h e s i te s h ave m idden . S epa ra t ing t h e s i te s b y t h o se w i th b ed rock m or ta r s a nd t h ose w i thou t s how s t h a t 5 1% o f t h e s i te s w i th b ed rock mo r ta r s h ave m idden , w h i le o n ly 3 6% o f t h o se w i thou t d o . T h i s d emon s t ra te s t h e i mpo r tance o fb ed rock mor ta r s t ot h e l o ca t ion o f s i te s w i th l a rge p opu la t i on s o r f r equen t r e s idence , a nd s uppor t s t h e h ypo the s i s t h a t t h e d i s t r ibu t i on o f m idden i si nf luenced b y t h e d i s t r ibu t ion o fb ed rock m or ta r s . T he d i s tr ibu t ion o f b ed rock m or ta r s , i nt u rn , i si n f luenced b y p a t te rn s o f g eo l o g ica l d epo s i t ion . Iw a s u nab le t of i nd s t rong r e la t ion sh ip s f o r a ny c omponen t s b e s ide s b ed rock mor ta r s a nd m idden . T h i s w a s a tl e a s t p a r t ly t h e r e su l t o f t h e r e la t ive n umbe r s i n vo lved . L i th ic f l ake s c a t te r s a r e t h e mos t c ommon c omponen t o f s i te s . T hey a r e s o c ommon , h oweve r ( 7 4% o f a l l s i tes ) , t h a t t h e re a r e n o t e nough s i te s w i thou t t h em t o d e te rm ine a p a t te rn f o r n on -occur r ence . T he re w a s o n ly o ne e xamp le e ach f o r h ousep i t s a nd r o ck s he l te r s , s o a ga in , n o p a t te rn c ou ld b e d e r ived .

5 2

C hap te r 6 THE MATHE MAT ICAL MODEL T he t e rm " mode l " h a s b een u sed t or e f e r t o aw ide r a nge o f a na ly t ic c oncep t s i na r chaeo logy ( e g . C la rke 1 978 ) . I n t h e f o l low ing d i scu s s ion , t h e t e rm w i l l r e f e r t o D o ran a nd H od son 's d ef in i t ion o f am a thema t ica l m ode l : a n a t temp ted s pec if i ca t ion i n e xac t m a thema t ica l t e rm s ( u sua l ly b y w ay o f as e t o f e qua t ion s ) o f t h e v a r iab les w h ich c ha rac te r i z e ar e a l w o r ld p roce s s , a nd o f t h e r e la t ion sh ips t h a t h o ld b e tween t h em . ( Do ran a nd H od son 1 975 :26 ) T he m a thema t ica l mode l c ho sen f o r t h i s p ro jec t i so ne v e r s ion o ft h e g ene ra l l i nea r mode l . e xp res sed a s

Ma thema t ica l ly , t h e g ene ra l l i nea r m ode l c an b e y =a+b 1x1+ b 2x2+

..

w he r e yi st h e d ependen t v a r iab le , a ac on s tan t , a nd x a nd b a r e t h e i n dependen t v a r iab les a nd t h e i r w e igh t s , r e spec t ive ly . (When t h e re i s o n ly o ne i n dependen t v a r iab le t h e e qua t ion b ecomes y =a+bx , w h ich d e scr ibe s al i ne o f i n te rcep t aa nd s l ope b ; h ence t h e n ame " l inea r m ode l " . ) I n t h e g ene ra l l i nea r mode l t h e d ependen t v a r iab le i se xp r e ssed a s a l i nea r f unc t ion o f t h e i n dependen t v a r iab les . Once t h e c on s tan t a nd t h e w e igh t s f o r t h e v a r iab les a r e d e t erm ined , n ew x v a lue s c an b e i n se r ted i n to t h e e qua t ion t o p r ed ic t n ew v a lue s f o r y . I f at e s t o f t h e se p r ed ic t i on s s how s t h em b e a ccu ra te , t h e m ode l p rov ides au sefu l t e chn ique f o r p r ed ic t ing a n u nknown q uan t i ty f r om k nown o nes . T he re a r e an umbe r o f t e chn iques u sed t o d e r ive t h e r e la t ion sh ip b e tween d ependen t a nd i n dependen t v a r iab les u s ing t h e g ene ra l l i nea r mode l . T he mos t c ommon o f t h ese a r e t h e r e la ted t e chn iques o f m u l t i p l e r e g r e ss ion a nd a na lys is o f v a r iance , w h ich h ave s hown t h e i r w or th i n n ume rous a pp l ica t ion s . U nf or tuna te ly , b o th t h ese t e chn iques h ave s t r ic t r e qu i r emen t s f o r t h e t y pe o f d a ta t o w h ich t h ey c an b e a pp l ied , r e qu i r emen t s w h ich t h e d a ta a va i lab le f o r t h is s t udy d o n o t s a t i sfy .

5 3

R eg res s ion a na ly s is r e qu i r e s a t

l e a s t i n terva l s ca le d a ta t ob e v a l id , a nd a na ly s i s o fv a r iance r e qu i re s t h a t t h e d a ta f o r t h e d ependen t v a r iab le b e i n te rva l s ca le . Mo s t o f t h e d a ta a va i lab le f o r t h i s s t udy , h oweve r , a r e m ea su red o n an om ina l s c a le . I mpor tan t f a c to r s s uch a s v ege ta t ion o r a va i lab le w a te r c ou ld p o ten t i a l ly b e m ea su red o n a n i n terva l s c a le , b u t a r e t r ea ted a s n om ina l o r o rd ina l o n G overnmen t m ap s , w he re t h ey a r e a s s igned l a be l s s u ch a s " c hapa r ra l "( nom ina l ) o r " i n te rm i t ten t s t ream "( o rd ina l ) . I n fo rma t ion s uch a s s l ope o r t h e n umbe r o f s i te s i sm ea su r ed o n ar a t io s c a le , b u t f o r a l t h e i n forma t ion t o b e c ons ide r ed a to nce , t h e a na ly t ic t e chn ique i sl i m i t ed b y t h e d a ta a tt h e l owes t l e ve l o f s c a l ing . Wha t i sn eeded i s at e ch n ique f o r a r r iv ing a t al i nea r m ode l t h a t i ss u i tab le f o r c a tego r ica l d a ta . T he l o g l inea r mode l p rov ides a s u i tab le m echan i sm . T he d a ta a r e f i r s t o rgan ized i n to c on t ingency t a b le s , w h ich a l low s t h e u se o f n om i n a l ly s ca led i n forma t ion . C e l l f r equenc ies i nt h e t a b le a r e t h en u sed t o c a lcu la t e t h e o dds o f a n e ven t o ccu r r ing . T he o dd s f o rm t h e b a s is f o r a p r ed ic t ion o fo ne v a r iab le f r om s eve ra l o t he r s . I n t h e f i r s t s t ep , t h e c a tego r ie s o f t h e n om ina l c l a s s if ica t ion a r e e xam ined i nc omb ina t ion , a nd t h e n umbe r o f e xamp le s w i th e a ch p a r t ic u l a r c omb ina t ion o f c ha ra c te r i s t ic s a r e c oun ted . F o r at wo -by two t a b le , t h e r e su l t s t a ke t h e f o rm : C harac ter i s t ic 1 P r e sen t A bsen t Charac ter is t ic 2

P r e sen t

a

b

a +b

A b sen t

c

d

c +d

a +c

b +d

a +b+c+d

T rea t ing c e l l f r equenc ie s a s p ropo r t ion s o f t h e t o ta l c an s e rve a s a b a s is f o r p red ic t ing t h e n umbe r o f e xamp les w i th g i ven c ha rac t e r i s t ic s . I n t h i s c a se , f o r i n s tance , t h e p ropo r t ion o f c a se s , o r t h e p robab i l i ty o f h av ing C ha rac te r i s t ic 2 i s ( a+b ) ( a+b+c+d ) T h is p rov ide s ac l ea rb a s is f o r p r ed ic t ing c e l l f r equenc ie s o fc on t ingency t a b le s i ft h e b a s ic r e la t ion sh ips a r e k nown . T he s y s tem u sed i n t h e l o g l inea r mode l i sc ompu ta t iona l ly m o r e c omp lex .

R a the r t h an u s ing p robab i l i ty , t h e k ey c oncep t i s " odd s " ,

d ef ined a s " t he r a t io b e tween t h e f r equency o fb e ing i no ne c a t ego ry a nd t h e f r equency o f n o t b e ing i nt h a t c a tego ry . " ( Knoke a nd B u rke 1 980 :9 )

5 4

F o r t h e e xamp le f o l lowed h e r e , t h e o dd s o f C ha rac te r i s t ic 2 b e ing p r e sen t a r e ( a+b ) ( c+d ) Wh i le t h i s s e rve s t o i l us t ra te t h e p r inc ip le , o dd s b a sed o n m a rg ina l t o ta l s a r e o f l i t t le u se . T h is i s am a jo r d i f f e r ence f r om p robab i l i ty . T he j o in t p robab i l i ty o f t wo i n dependen t e ven t s i st h e p roduc t o f t h e p roba b i l i t ies o f t h e e ven t s . T h is p rov ides a n e a sy w ay t o a r r ive a te xpec ted c e l l f r equency i fm a rg in t o ta l s a r e k nown . H oweve r , s i nce t h e o dd s o f a n e ven t a r e n o t n o rma l ized i n any w ay , t h e p roduc t o f m a rg ina l o dd s i s n o t am ean ingfu l n umbe r . T he m a thema t ica l d er iva t ion o f t h e c ond i t iona l o dd s r a t io i s t o o c omp lex t o w o rk t h rough h e re ( c f . K noke a nd B u rke 1 980 f o r af u l l d e sc r ip t ion ) , b u t t h e r e su l t i si n tu i t ive ly a cce s s ib le . T he o dd s o fC ha ra c t e r i s t ic 2 b e ing p r esen t are e qua l t o t h e r a t io o f t h e g eome t r ic m ean o f t h e c e l l f r equenc ies w i th C ha rac te r i s t ic 2 p r e sen t t ot h e g eome t r ic m ean o fa l l c e l l f r equenc ie s , o r 1

( ab )

2 1

( abcd )4 T he a bove e xpr ess ion i sc a l led t h e c ond i t iona l o dd s r a t io , o r

t .

T h i s e xp r es s ion h a s a n i n tu i t ive s im i la r i ty t ot h e o r ig ina l e xp re s s ion f o r t h e p robab i l i ty o f h av ing C ha rac ter i s t ic 2 . U s ing ' ri n ag ene ra l f o r mu la f o r at wo -way l o g l inea r mode l , t h e f o l low ing e qua t ion r e su l t s : F 1—r n

1 t 1 1

Fi sc e l l f r equency ( e qu iva len t t o yi nt h e g ene ra l l i nea r mode l ) , T Ji st h e g eome t r ic m ean o f a l c e l l f r equenc ies ( e qu iva len t t o a ) , a nd ' rt h e " e f f ec t " t h a t v a r iab le s h ave o n c e l l f r equenc ie s ( e qu iva len t t ob ) . I n t h is e qua t ion t h e c ond i t iona l o dds a r e mu l t ip l ied r a the r t h an a dded . A s ar e su l t , ' ri so f ten r e f e r red t o a s am u l t ip l ica t ive p a rame te r . T he e qua t ion b ecome s a dd i t ive , o r l i nea r , w hen t h e n a tu ra l l o ga r i thm i s t a ken o f t h e e n t i re e xp r e s s ion , h ence t h e n ame l o g l inea r mode l . U nde r l o ga r i thm ic t r an sforma t ion , t h e a bove e xp re s s ion b ecomes l nF 3= 1n i l+ ln ' r+ ln ' r1+ ln ' r1 T h i s i so f ten e xp r es sed a s 5 5

l nF1 pO+X1+ +X 1 whe r e Xr ep resen t s t h e n a tu ra l l oga r i thm o f

t ,

a nd 8 t h e n a tu r a l l oga -

r i thm o f r . T h is i sr e cogn izab le a s s im i la r t o t h e g ene ra l l i nea r mode l , b u t w i th a n a dd i t iona l t e rm e xp res s ing t h e i n te rac t ion b e tween t h e t wo f a c to r s . A mode l i nw h ich a l l i n te rac t ion e f f ec t s a r e c on s ide r ed i sc a l led as a tu ra ted mode l . Wh i le t h e v a r iou s s t ep s j u s t d e scr ibed a r e c omp l ica ted , t h e i rp urpose i ss imp le . T hey a r e d es igned t ot r an sform n om ina l d a ta i n to af o rm s u i t a b le f o r u se i n al i nea r mode l . T he l i nea r mode l c an b e a na lyzed t o a s s ign w e igh t s t o t h e d i f f e r en t f a c to r s t h a t s e rve a s i n dependen t v a r i a b les . T hese w e igh t s c an t h en b e u sed t o p r ed ic t c e l l f r equency , w h ich m ea su re s t h e o ccur rence o f t h e i ndependen t v a r iab le .

5 6

C hap te r 7 BUILDING AND TESTING THE PREDICTIVE MODEL T he I nf eren t ia lA pproach T o t e s t t h e s t a t is t ica l s i gn if i cance o f t h e v a r iou s e nv i ronmen ta l f a c t o r s , mu l t i -d imen s iona l c on t ingency t a b le s w e re c on s t ruc ted w he r e e ach c e l l f r equency r ep r e sen ted a c oun t o f t h e q uad ra t s h av ing a s e t n umbe r o f s i tes a nd c e r ta in e nv i ronmen ta l c ha rac ter is t ic s . T he t a b le s w e r e a na lyzed t o d e term in e w h ich e nv i ronmen ta l f a c to r s w e re s i gn if ican t ly a s soc ia ted w i th n umbe r o f s i tes . T hese o pe ra t ion s w e r e c a r r ied o u t u s ing t h e 1 977 a nd 1 979 v e r s ion s o f t h e P 3F p rog ram f r om t h e BMDP B iomed ica l C ompu te r P rog ram s e r ies a t UCLA ( D ixon a nd B rown 1 977 ) . T h is p rog ram p rov ide s b o th P ea r son g oodness -of -f i t c h i -squa r e a nd a l i ke l ihood r a t io c h i -squa re s t a t i s t ic b a sed o n as a tu ra ted h i e ra rch ica l l o g l inea r mode l ( s ee A ppend ix B ) . T he b a s ic p rocedu re f o r u s ing t h i s p rog ram c a l l s f o r an umbe r o f r un s t o t e s t t h e s t a t i s t ica l s i gn if i cance o f t h e a s soc ia t ion o f d i f f e r en t f a c t o r s , f o l lowed b y t h e c on s t ruc t ion a nd t e s t ing f o r g oodne ss -of -f i t o f mode l s b a sed o n t h o se f a c to r s w i th s i gn if ican t i n te rac t ion s . T he f i na l r e su l t i s as e t o f p a rame te r s f o r al o g l inea r mode l c on ta in ing o n ly t h e s i gn if i can t f a c to r s a nd i n te rac t ion s . T he p a rame te r s c an b e u sed t oe s t i m a te t h e c e l l f r equenc ie s i n ac on t ingency t a b le , a nd t h rough r e la t ive ly m ino r man ipu la t ion s c an b e c onver ted t o ap r ed ic t ion o f t h e e xpec ted n umbe r o f s i te s f o r q uad ra t s h av ing ag i ven c omb ina t ion o ff e a tur e s . Two t y pe s o f s t a t i s t ica l s i gn if icance w e re t e s ted . T he f i r s t w a s m a r g i na l a s soc ia t ion , t e s t ing a s i ng le e nv i ronmen ta l f a c to r a ga in s t t h e n umbe r o f s i te s p r esen t . S uch at e s t s how s i ft h e f a c to r i ss i gn if i can t i n i s o la t ion , b u t d oes n o t c on s ide r t h e p os s ib i l i ty t h a t t h e r e la t ion sh ip m ay b e i n d i rec t . T he s e cond w a s p a r t ia l a s soc ia t ion , a nd e xam ined t h e c hange i ng oodness -of -f i t r e su l t ing f r om t h e a dd i t ion o f an ew f a c tor t oa mode l i n c lud ing a l l o t he r f a c to r s .

A l a rge i mp rovemen t i n d ica te s t h a t

t h e f a c tor i s i mpor tan t i n a nd o f i t se lf , w he r ea s as ma l l i mp rovemen t s ugge s t s t h a t t h e f a c to r i sp robab ly i mpo r tan t a s ar e su l t o f c or r e la t ion t o a no the r , mo r e i mpo r tan t f a c to r .

5 7

Neither statistic alone is sufficient to determine which factors should be included in a model. If the marginal association statistic alone is large, the factor is important on its own, but the relationship may be indirect. Similarly, if the marginal association statistic alone is large, it may be because the other factors in the test are weak. If either test shows a low significance level, the factor should be excluded, because of statistical limitations against including too many factors and estimating too many parameters with a limited number of observations. Table 3 lists the program results for the different tests. Four factors were significant at the .01 level for both marginal and partial association. These were landform, slope, water, and vegetation. Geology and altitude had significant marginal associations, but their partial associations were less convincing, suggesting that their relationship with site occurrence was indirect. Reexamination of the data showed that both were related to the more significant factors of landform and slope. Table 3 Results of Tests of Association Marginal Association

Environmental Factor

Degrees of Freedom

Pearson Chi-square

Landform Slope Vegetation Water Elevation Geology

8 6 6 6 6 4

102.75 56.50 63.38 80.38 23.64 28.23

p* .0000

.0000

.0000

.0000 .0006 .0000

Partial Association

Likelihood Ratio Chi-square 34.87 18.00 29.36 32.97 14.00 9.62

p*

.0000 .0062 .0001 .0000

.0296 .0473

* values of p listed as .0000 represent rounded values 30%

1 . 905

. 7 63

. 6 88

None

1 . 827

. 7 89

. 6 94

I n te rm i t ten t S t ream

0

-

1 . 109

1 . 007

. 8 95

S p r ing

. 6 41

1 . 218

1 . 280

P er enn ia l S t ream

. 7 70

1 . 033

1 . 258

H e rbaceou s

. 6 40

1 . 223

1 . 277

S hrub

. 9 34

1 . 024

1 . 046

. 9 68

. 9 83

1 . 051

1 . 729

. 8 13

. 7 12

C o rdwood T ree T imbe r T ree

d eg r ee a nd d i r ec t ion o f t h e i r r e la t ion sh ip t os i te l o ca t ion . I ft h e e nv i ron m en ta l f a c to r i sp o s i t ive ly r e la ted t o s i te l o ca t ion , i ti sg r ea te r t h an o ne , i fn ega t ive ly r e la ted i ti sl e ss . T h is c an b e u nde r s tood i nt e rm s o f b o th t h e a dd i t ive a nd t h e m u l t i p l ica t ive e qua t ion s .

S ince t h e p a rame te r v a lues a r e mu l t ip l ied i n t h e

f o rme r , av a lue o f o ne m akes n o c hange i n t h e p roduc t , w h i le a v a lue g r ea te r t h an o ne i n c r ea se s i t , a nd s o o n .

I n t h e a dd i t ive e qua t ion s , t h e

l o ga r i thm s o f t h e p a rame te r v a lues a r e a dded . Ap a rame te r v a lue o f o ne h a s n o e f f ec t o n t h e s um , av a lue l e s s t h an o ne d im in ishe s i t ,e t c . T he p a rame te r v a lue s p rov ide aw ay t or a nk t h e f a c to r s b y i n f luence . T he g r ea te r t h e r a nge i n p a rame te r v a lues f o r af a c to r , t h e m or e e f f ec t t h a t f a c to r h a s o n t h e s um o r p roduc t o f t h e e qua t ion i ti su sed i n . T ab le 5 s how s t h e r a nges o f p a rame te r v a lue s f o r z e ro s i te s , w h ich b e s t 6 0

T ab le S R ange i nP a rame te r V a lue s f o r A nde r son F la t F ac tor

L owe s t V a lue

H ighe s t V a lue

R ange

L andfo rm

. 6 85

2 . 150

1 . 465

S l op e Wa te r

. 6 0 3 . 6 4 1

1 . 90 5 1 . 827

V ege ta t ion

. 6 40

1 . 729

1 . 302 1 . 186 1 . 0 89

e xp re s ses t h e d i f f e r ence b e tween u sed a nd u nused l a nd . L andform h a s t h e g r ea tes t e f f ec t , f o l lowed b y s l ope , w a te r , a nd v ege ta t ion . T he p r eem inence o f l a ndform i sn a tu ra l , s i nce i n s ome c a tego r ie s i t c omb ines o the r f a c to r s . A s t ream t e r race , f o r i n s tance , w i l l b e f l a t a nd h ave a s t ream n ea rby , s o i tc omb ines b o th a m i ld s l ope a nd a w a te r s ou rce . S lope w a s f ound t oh ave amo re n o t iceab le i nf luence t h an w a te r d ur ing d escr ip t ive a na ly s i s , ap o in t t h a t i sc onf i rmed h e re . h a s t h e l e a s t i n f luence o f t h e f ou r f a c to r s .

V ege ta t ion

T he u se o f t h ree e qua t ion s i nc a lcu la t ing p a rame te r v a lue s r e su l t s i n t h r ee s e t s o f v a lue s f o r e ach q uad ra t , o ne e ach f o r z e ro , o ne , a nd t wo o r mo r e s i te s .

T h i s i s u sefu l b ecau se i t f a c i l i ta tes c a lcu la t ion o f a n

e xpec ted n umbe r o f s i tes f o r e a ch q uad ra t , b a sed o n p robab i l i ty a nd e xpec ted v a lue . F i r s t , t h e p robab i l i t ie s t h a t t h e r e w i l l b e z e ro , o ne , o r t wo o r mo re s i te s a re c a lcu la ted s epa ra te ly b y mu l t ip ly ing t h e a pp ropr ia te v a lue s f o r t h e e nv i ronmen ta l c ha rac te r i s t ic s b y c o lumn , s umm ing t h e p roduc t s , a nd d iv id ing e ach i nd iv idua l p roduc t b y t h e s um o f t h e p roduc t s .

T h i s

r e su l t s i n ap ropo r t ion , wh ich c an b e i n terp r e ted a s ap robab i l i ty . N ex t , t h e e xpec ted v a lue , t h e p roduc t o f a n e ven t 's v a lue a nd p roba b i l i ty , i sc a lcu la ted . T he v a lue f o r t h e e ven t " no s i tes " i sz e ro , a nd t h e v a lue f o r " one s i te " i so ne . T he e ven t " two o r mo r e s i tes " w a s g iven t h e v a lue 2 . 45 , s i nce t h a t i st h e a ve rage n umbe r o f s i tes f o r q uad ra t s w i th mo r e t han o ne s i te . S umm ing t h e e xpec ted v a lues g ives t h e e xpec ted n umbe r o f s i tes f o r e a ch q uad ra t . ( See T ab le 6 f o r a n e xamp le o f t h e c a lcu la t ion )

6 1

T ab le 6 E xamp le : C a lcu la t ing E xpec ted N umbe ro fS i te s f r om Mu l t ip l ica t ive P a rame te r s o fE nv i ronmen ta l C ha rac te r i s t ic s

Q uad ra t 9 20 : E nv ironmen ta lF ac tor s F ac to r A l l L andfo rm S lope

Mu l t ip l ica t ive P arame t er s

C ond i t ion

N umbe r o fS i te s Z e ro O n e Mo re

S t r eam T e r ra ce 1 0 2 0%

1 . 095 . 6 85 . 7 72

. 9 80 1 . 063 1 . 119

. 9 32 1 . 374 1 . 158

Wa te r

I n t erm i t ten t S t ream

1 . 109

1 . 007

. 8 95

V ege ta t ion

T imbe r T ree

1 . 729

. 8 13

. 7 12

1 . 110

. 9 54

. 9 45

-

P roduc t b y Numbe ro fS i te s S um o fP roduc t s

3 . 009

P ropo r t ion b y N umbe r o fS i te s E xpec ted V a lue b y N umbe ro fS i te s

. 3 69 0

. 3 17 . 3 17

E xpec ted N umbe ro f S i te s

1 . 086

A c tua l N umbe r o fS i te s

1

. 3 14 . 7 69

T es t ing t he Mode l .

T he re a r e a tl e a s t t wo w ay s t ot e s t t h e f i na l mode l . One i s at e s t o f s t a t i s t ica l s i gn if icance , t o s e e i ft h e c or respondence b e tween t h e a c tua l c e l l f r equenc ie s a nd t ho se g ene ra ted b y t h e mode l c ou ld b e d ue t o c hance a l one .

T he o t he r i s at e s t o f p red ic t ive a dequacy .

I ti se n t i re ly

p os s ib le f o r a mode l t o b e s t a t i s t ica l ly s i gn if i can t a nd p rac t ica l ly u n im p or tan t . S ta t is t ica l t e s t s s how t h e mode l t o b e h i gh ly s i gn if ican t . B o th t h e P ea r son c h i squa re a nd t h e l i ke l ihood r a t io a r e s i gn i f ican t a tt h e p > .9999 l e ve l .

I ti si mpor tan t t o n o te t h a t t h e t e s t i sj u s t t h e o ppo s i te o f u sua l .

I n t h e u sua l c h i squa r e t e s t w e a r e t r y ing t o r e jec t t h e h ypo the s is o f n o a s soc ia t ion , s o av a lue t h i s l a rge w ou ld b e v e ry n on s ign if ican t .

H ow -

e ve r , i n t h is c a se w e a r e t r y ing a ccep t t h e h ypo the s ized mode l , s o t h e mode l i sh igh ly s i gn if ican t s t a t i s t ica l ly . T he e xpec ted v a lue s f o r t h e q uad ra t s p rov ide a no the r u sef u l m ean s o f t e s t ing t h e mode l .

T e s t ing t h e mode l 's r e su l t s a ga in s t t h e d a ta b y

g oodne ss -of -f i t s how s i tt ob e s i gn if ican t s t a t i s t ica l ly , b u t t h is i sh a rd ly a

6 2

u sefu l m ea su re o f u t i l i ty . A s am ea su re o f i t s a b i l i ty t o m ake u sefu l p r ed ic t ion s o f a r cha eo log ica l s i te d en s i t ies , t h e e xpec ted v a lue s w e r e d i v ided i n to i n terva l s . T he n umbe r o f q uad ra t s w i th e xpec ted v a lues f a l l i ng i ne ach i n terva l w e re c oun ted , a nd t h e n umbe r o f s i te s i nt h ose q ua d r a t s . I d ea l ly , t h e a c tua l n umbe r o f s i tes p e r q uad ra t s hou ld f a l l w i th in t h e e xpec ted n umbe r o f s i tes . T ab le 7 l i s t s t h ese r e su l t s f o r t h e o r ig ina l d a ta .

T ab le 7 C ompar i son o fA nde r son D a ta ( 40 a c re q uadra t s ) Wi th Mode l R e su l t s E xpec ted Number

N umber o fQ uad ra t s

N umber o fS i tes

Number o fS i te s

o fS i tes

i nR ange

i nR ange

p er Quad ra t

. 0 0 -30 . 3 0 .60

2 39 7 3

1 5 1 3

. 0 6 . 1 8

. 6 0 .90

3 0

1 5

. 5 0

. 9 0 -1 .20

2 0

1 3

. 6 5

1 . 20 -1 .50

1 0

1 . 50 -1 .80

7

1 2

1 . 20

1 4

2 . 00

T he a c tua l v a lue s a r e ab i t l ow , e xcep t f o r t h e u ppe r r a nge s , b u t t h e r ank ing i sc or r ec t , a n i mpor tan t c once rn i ft h e m ode l i st o b e u sed i n p l ann ing . A s am a thema t ica l d e scr ip t ion o f t h e o r ig ina l d a ta , t h e mode l i s q u i te s ucce s sfu l . H oweve r , t h e re a r e i mpor tan t p o in t s t o b e c on s i de red b efo re c omp le te ly a ccep t ing i t s u t i l i ty . S ome o f t h e se p o in t s a r e t e chn ica l , a nd s ome t h eo r e t ica l . T echn ica l C ons idera t ions T he t wo k ey t e chn ica l c on s ide ra t ion s o f t h e mode l c once rn t h e v a l i d i ty o f t h e r e su l t s a nd t h e p r ed ic t ive v a lue o f t h e mode l .

O ne o f t h e

mo s t i mpor tan t p rob lems c once rn ing t h e v a l id i ty o f r e su l t s d er ived f r om t h e u se o f q uad ra t s c once rn s q uad ra t s i ze . O f ten , a na lyses u s ing d i f f e ren t s i zed q uad ra t s w i l l y i e ld d i f f e ren t r e su l t s ( Roge r s 1 974 ) .

T o

t e s t f o r t h is p rob lem , t h e d a ta w e re r e coded u s ing q uad ra t s h av ing f ou r t ime s t h e a r ea , a nd t h e s ame m ode l w a s u sed o n t h em . A s c an b e s e en i n T ab le 8 , t h e n umbe r s a r e t o o s ma l l t o b e c onc lu s ive , b u t t h e m ode l a ppea r s t ob e s ucce s sf u l w i th t h e se d a ta , e ven w i thou t c ompen sa t ing f o r t h e q uad rup l ing i na r ea . (T h e d i f f e r ence i nt o ta l n umbe r o f s i te s i sd ue t o t h e f a c t t h a t f ewe r s i te s f e l l o n t h e g r id l i ne s w i th t h e l a rge r q uad ra t s ) T he s e cond p o in t c once rn s t h e r e a l p r ed ic t ive v a lue o f t h e mode l . T o t h is p o in t , i th a s o n ly b een e xam ined r e t rod ic t ive ly , s o t h e m os t t h a t 6 3

T ab le 8 C ompar i son o f Ande r son D a ta ( 160 a c re q uad ra t s ) Wi th Mode l R e su l t s E xpec ted Number

Number o f Quad ra t s

N umber o fS i te s

Number o fS i te s

o fS i tes

i nR ange

i nR ange

p er Q uad ra t

. 0 0 .30 . 3 0 .60

6 2 2 9

1 0 1 0

. 6 0 .90 . 9 0 1 .20

9

1 . 20 -1 .50

3

1 . 50 -1 .80

2

7

5 1 5

1 0 1 0

. 1 6 . 3 4 . 7 1

1 . 67 3 . 33 5 . 00

c an b e s a id i s t ha t i s t h a t i ti s a n a ccu ra te d e scr ip t ion o f o ne a r ea . T he r efo re , t h e mode l w a s a pp l ied t oa no the ra r ea whe re s i te l o ca t ion w a s k nown i n o rde r t o t e s t i tp red ic t ive ly . T h i s a r ea , B ea r C ompa r tmen t , i s o n ly a f ew m i les n o r th o f Ande r son F la t , b u t h a s d i f f e r en t t o pog raphy a nd v ege ta t ion . T he r e su l t s o f t h i s p r ed ic t ion a r e p re sen ted i n T ab le 9 . T he mode l w a s c l ea r ly l e ss s ucce ssfu l i nt h is n ew a r ea , t h ough t h e r ank ing s a r e s t i l l r ea sonab ly g ood ( t he v a lue i n t h e

1 . 50 -1 .80 i n terva l s hou ld b e t r ea ted

l i gh t ly , a s t h e p robab i l i ty o f z e ro s i tes f o r t h e q uad ra t w a s g r ea te r t h an . 5 ) .

T he re a r e t wo f l aw s e v iden t i n t h e p r ed ic t ion . T he f i r s t i st h a t a l l

t h e p red ic t ion s a r e l ow , a nd t h e s e cond t h a t t h e p red ic t ion s a r e e spec ia l ly b ad i nt h e h ighe r n umbe r s o fe xpec ted s i te s .

T ab le 9 C omp a r i son o fB ea rD a t a ( 4 0 a c r e q u a d r a t s ) W i t h Mod e l R e su l t s E xpec ted Number

Number o fQ uad ra t s

N umber o fS i te s

Number o fS i te s

o fS i tes

i nR ange

i nR ange

p er Q uad ra t

. 0 0 .30

13

6

. 0 5

. 3 0 .60

5 7

7

. 1 2

. 6 0 .90

1 9

4

. 2 1

. 9 0 -1 .20

1 3

2

. 1 5

1 . 20 -1 .50

1 8

7

. 3 9

0

. 0 0

1 . 50 -1 .80

1

T he f a i lu re i n r ank ing i n t h e h igh r ange c an p robab ly b e e xp la ined b y ad i f f e r en t o ve ra l l d i s t r ibu t ion o f s l ope i n B ea r C ompa r tmen t .

F ig -

u re s 9a nd 2 2 c ompa r e t h e s l ope d i s t r ibu t ion s f o r A nde r son a nd B ea r , r e spec t ive ly . Wh i le t h e d i s t r ibu t ion o f u t i l ized q uad ra t s i sq u i te s im i la r , 6 4

0 .4

0 .3

P ropo r t ion

0 .2

0 . 1

-

-

-

-

0 .0 0 -10

1 0 -20

2 0 -30

3 0 -40

4 0 -50

5 0 -60

6 0 -70

7 0 -80

S lope ( % )

F igure 2 2 . P ropo r t ion o fq uad ra t s f o r B ea r ( Un shaded : A l l Q uad ra t s , S haded : Q ua d r a t s w i th A r chaeo log ica l S i te s )

B ea r C ompa r tmen t a s aw ho le i sf l a t te r , s o t h a t s ma l le r p ropor t ion s o f s l igh t ly s l op ing t e r ra in a r e u t i l ized f o r s i te s . S ince s l ope i sa n i mpor tan t p r ed ic to r , s l igh t ly s l op ing l a nd i so verp r ed ic ted . t h e o ve ra l l r a nk ing i sr e a sonab ly c l ose .

A s ide f r om t h i s f l aw ,

T he o t he r , a nd mo r e s e r iou s , f l aw i nt h e e xpec ted v a lues i s ag ene ra l o verp red ic t ion . T he re a r e f a r f ewer s i te s i n t h e e n t i r e a r ea t h an w e re e xpec ted f r om t h e mode l . T h i s i sd ue i np a r t t oe dge e f f ec t s , ac ommon p rob lem w i th r e la t ive ly s ma l l q uad ra t s ( G r e ig -Sm i th 1 957 ) . B ecau se t h e re a r e s o m any a r cha eo log ica l s i tes i n Ande r son , many f a l l o n t h e e dges o f q uadra ts .

S ince p ar t o f as i te was c oun ted a s a who le , many

w e r e c oun ted t w ice . B ea r , w i th f a r f ewe r s i te s , d i d n o t h ave a ny c oun ted t w ice b ecause n one l a y o n q uad ra tb oundar ies . T h is s yne rg i s t ic e f f ec t , i n w h ich h av ing mo r e s i tes r e su l t s i n e ven mo r e b e ing c oun ted , i si n te res t ing , b u t i td oe s n o t a dequa te ly e xp la in t h e d i sc repancy i n p r ed ic t ion . F o r A nde r son , t h e re w e re 5 6 a c tua l s i te s f o r 8 2 c oun ted , s o 6 8% o f t h e c oun t r e p re sen t s a c tua l s i te s . F o r B ea r t h e a c tua l d en s i ty , e ven e xc lud ing t h e z e ro v a lue i nt h e h i gh r a nge , a ve rages o n ly 2 6% o f t h e m idpo in t o f t h e p r ed ic t ion i n te rva l . T he r e i s ag enu ine d i f f e rence i ns e t t lemen t d en s i ty t ob e e xp la ined .

6 5

T he p rob lem o f w ha t d e term ine s t h e d en s i ty w i th w h ich a n a r ea i s i nhab i ted i s ad i ff i cu l t o ne , b u t i ti sw or th e xam in ing b r ief ly i nt h i s c a se . B i rd se l l ( 1953 , 1 968 ) h a s a ch ieved g ood r e su l t s b y e xam in ing t h e r e la t i on sh ips b e tween i n d ica to r s o f p o ten t ia l f ood r e sou r ce s a nd p opu la t ion d en s i ty .

I n t h e a r ea s Is t ud ied , v ege ta t ion i sp robab ly t h e b e s t i n d ica to r

o f p o ten t ia l f ood r e sou r ce s , a nd t h e v ege ta t ion i n t h e t wo a r ea s i sq u i t e d i f f e ren t , a sc an b e s e en f r om T ab le 1 0 .

T ab le 1 0 C ompar i son o f V ege ta t ion f o r A nde r son a nd B ear P ropor t ion o fQ uad ra t s W i th V ege ta t ion T ype V ege ta t ion T ype

A nde r son

B ea r

H e rbaceous

. 0 08

. 0 04

S hrub

. 1 72

. 0 09

C o rdwood T ree

. 1 21

. 0 09

T i mbe r

. 6 99

. 9 77

T he mos t i mpo r tan t d i f f e r ence s i n v ege ta t ion b e tween t h e t wo a r ea s i si n t h e S h rub a nd C o rdwood T r ee t y pe s . C o rdwood T r ee i nt h is a r ea c on s i s t s o f o ak s (W ie s lande r 1 935 ) . O ak s w e r e t h e s i ng le mo s t i mpo r t a n t p l an t t o t h e a bor ig ina l s , s i nce t h ey p rov ided a corn s , t h e s t ap le f ood ( c f . K roebe r 1 976 , B aumhof f 1 963 ) . S h rub v ege ta t ion i s mo s t ly C hapa r r a l , as i gn if i can t v ege ta t ion t y pe t h a t t h e C a l ifo rn ia I nd ian s m anaged t h rough c on t ro l led b u rn ing t o m ax im ize b o th u se fu l p l an t p roduc t s a nd g ame ( Lew i s 1 973 ) . I n c on t ra s t , t h e T imbe r T ree t y pe c on s is t s o f p i ne s a nd f i r s , w h ich w e r e l i t t le u sed b y t h e o r ig ina l i n hab i tan t s . A nde r son c ompa r tmen t p robab ly h ad much m o re f ood a va i lab le t h an B ea r c om p a r tmen t , s o i ti sn o t s u rp r i s ing t h a t i th a s m o r e s i tes . I ti si mpor tan t t or emembe r , h oweve r , t h a t v ege ta t ion w a s af a c to r i n t h e p red ic t ion . A ppa ren t ly , i td i d n o t c a r ry e nough w e igh t i n c omb ina t i on w i th o the r f a c to r s t o r e su l t i n a ccu ra t e p r ed ic t ion . I ts e ems l i ke ly t h a t t h e i n accu racy w a s d ue t o t h e f i nenes s o f s c a le , w h ich c au sed t h e q uad ra t s t o p r esen t ag ood s umma ry o f al o ca t ion f o r r e s idence , b u t a p oo r s umma ry o f a n a r ea f o r s ub s is tence . A t t h i s p o in t , i ti sw o r th e l abo ra t ing o n t h e d i f f e r ence b e tween t h e t wo f l aw s .

F o ley ( 1 981) m ake s au sef u l d i s t inc t ion b e tween e nv i ron -

m en ta l v a r ia t ion , t h e p a t te rn ing o f r e sou rce s , a nd d emog raph ic v a r ia t ion , t h e d ens i ty w i th w h ich a n a r ea w a s i n hab i ted . I ts e em s t h a t t h e m ode l i s q u i te g ood a t p r ed ic t ing t h e p a t te rn o f a r chaeo log ica l s i te s , b ecause t h e

6 6

r a nk ing i n t h e n ew a r ea i sa c cep tab le , b u t i ti sn o t n ea r ly a s g ood a t p r ed ic t ing t h e i rd en s i ty . T h i s s ugge s t s t h a t t h e b e s t mode l m igh t b e at wo s tage o ne . T h e f i r s t s t age w ou ld b e b road sca le , a nd w ou ld b e d i r ec ted t op r ed ic t ing t h e n umbe r o f a r chaeo log i ca l s i t e s i n al a rge a r ea , b u t n o t t h e i r l o ca t ion . T he s e cond s t age w ou ld b e av a r ia t ion o f t h e m ode l p r e sen ted h e r e , r a nk ing l o ca t ion s b y s u i tab i l i ty . I n o t he r w o rd s , d en s i ty a nd p a t te rn w ou ld b e t r ea ted s e pa r a te ly i nt h e a na ly s i s , b u tc omb ined i nt h e r e su l t . T he e nd p roduc t o f t h e t wo s t age s w oul dc omb ine d en s i ty a nd p a t t e rn t o p r ed ic t b o th t h e n umbe r o f s i t e s i n a n a r ea a nd t h e i r l o ca t ion . Wh i le t h e m ode l a l r eady c on s t ruc ted i ss a t i s f a c to r i ly a ccu ra te , i ta ppea r s t h a t at wo s tage m ode l u s ing i ta s as e cond s t age h a s p o t en t ia l f o r e ven m o r e a ccu ra cy .

6 7

C hap te r 8 EXPLANATORY VALUE I n t e s t ing p r ed ic t ive a ccu racy , p red ic ted r ank s o f q uad ra t s w e re c ompa red w i th a c tua l r a nk s . T he p r ed ic t ion s w e re s hown t ob e u sefu l ly a ccu ra te . H oweve r , t h i s i sn o t t h e o n ly m ea su re o f s ucce s s . B e s ide s s imp le n umer ica l a ccu racy , a mode l s hou ld i n c r ea se u nde r s tand ing o f a s i tua t ion . T he r e a r e a tl e a s t t wo a spec t s t o t h i s u nde r s tand ing . O ne i s t h e s imp le r e la t ion sh ip b e tween f a c to r s , a nd t h e o t he r t h e c au se s o f t h a t r e la t ionsh ip . B ra i thwa i te ( 1968 ) c a l ls t h ese t wo a spec t s t h e h ow a nd t h e w hy . H ow t h ing s a r e l i nked , a nd w hy t h ey a r e l i nked t h a t w ay . T h i s mode l d oes f a i r ly w e l l a ti n c r ea s ing u nde r s tand ing o f t h e h ow , b u t i so f l e s s a s s i s tance i nu nde r s tand ing t h e w hy . T he mode l h e lps u nde r s tand ing o f t h e r e la t ion sh ip b e tween e nv i ron m en ta l f a c to r s a nd s i te l o ca t ion i n t wo w ays . F i r s t , t h rough d e scr ip t ive a na ly s i s a nd i n i t ia l t e s t ing f o r s i gn if icance , i ts how s w h ich f a c to r s a r e i mpo r tan t . A s i tt u rn s o u t , t h e se a r e t h e o nes a r chae log i s t s t h ough t w e re i mpo r tan t a l l a l ong , b u t i ti ss t i l l s a t isfy ing t o b e r i gh t .

S econd , c on -

s t ruc t ion o f t h e mode l a s s igned w e igh t s t o t h ese f a c to r s . T he se w e igh t s s how t h e r e la t ive i mpo r tance o f e ach f a c to r i n i nf luenc ing s i te l o ca t ion , s ome th ing o f g r ea t i n te r e s t t ot h ose s t udy ing c u l tu ra l e co logy . Whe re t h e mode l f a i l s i si n a i d ing t h e u nde r s tand ing o f s e t t lemen t p roce s s . I tc ou ld b e a r gued t h a t t h e mode l s hou ld r e p r esen t ad ec i s ion m ode l , w i th t h e w e igh t s a s s igned r e p resen t ing c ogn i t ive i mpor tance , b u t t h i s , w h i le a t t rac t ive , i sh a rd t oj u s t ify o n f o rma l g round s . I ti sd i ff i cu l t t o d emon s t ra te t h a t u se o f t h e mode l c on t r ibu te s t o a n u nde r s tand ing o f t h e s e t t lemen t p roce s s . T he e xac t e xp r e ss ion o f r e la t ion sh ip s b e tween e nv i ronmen t a nd l o ca t ion c er ta in ly a i d s t h e p roce s s o f a na ly s is , b u t c an n o t b e c ons ide r ed a na ly s is i ni t se lf . A k ey p rob lem i n d e term in ing t h e u t i l i ty o f am ode l i sd ec id ing e xac t ly w ha t i sb e ing m ode led . A p robab i l i s t ic mode l s uch a s t h i s o ne d oes n o t a t temp t t o m im ic t h e p roces s o f s e t t lemen t , a s d o s imu la t ion mode l s ( e g . H odde r 1 978 , Ammerman a nd C ava l l i -Sfo rza 1 973 , 1 979 , G unn 1 979 , T homa s 1 972 , 1 973 ) . I n s tead , i t s g oa l i st o d up l ica te t h e r e su l t s o f ap roce s s w i thou t s pec ify ing e ve ry a spec t o ft h a t p roces s .

6 9

D up l ica t ion i sp os s ib le b ecau se w hen l a rge n umbe r s o f d ec i s ion s a r e c omb ined , t h ey c an b e e xp r essed a s p robab i l i t ie s . E ach s i te w a s l o ca ted f o r ar e a son o r c omb ina t ion o f r e a son s . H oweve r , when a n umbe r o f l o ca t ion s a r e s t ud ied , t h e o u tcome s o f t h ese v a r ied i n d iv idua l d ec is ion s c an b e e xp r e ssed a s as t a t i s t ica l r u le . V e ry l i t t le a ccu racy i sl o s t i nt h i s p roces s , b u t e xp lana t ion i s . S tocha s t ic mode l s a r e g ene ra l ly t h ough t t o b e mo r e r e a l i s t ic t h an p ur e ly d e te rm in i s t ic o ne s . T h i s i s n o t b ecau se r e a l i ty i s r a ndom , b u t b ecau se i ti sh igh ly c omp lex . T h ing s h appen f o r r e a son s , j u s t a s d e te r m in i s t ic mode l s i mp ly . H oweve r , t h e r e a son s a r e o f ten s o c omp lex t h a t i n c lud ing t h em a l l , o r e ven j u s t t h e mos t i mpor tan t o ne s , i s ah ope le s s t a sk . I n c lud ing s t ocha s t ic e l emen t s m im ic s t h e o u tcomes m o r e a ccu r a te ly w h i le a l so i mp ly ing c or r ec t ly t h a t t h e re a r e i n suff i c ien t ly u nde r s t ood a spec t s t o t h e p rob lem .

S tocha s t ic mode l s a r e mo re r e a l is t ic

b ecau se t h ey r e p re sen t amo r e c or rec t a pp ra i sa l o f o ne 's k now ledge , n o t b ecau se t h ey a r e mo re l i ke r e a l i ty . T o ar e a l e x ten t , t h e p rob lem l i e s i nd i f f e r en t d ef in i t ion s o fe xp lana t i on . A m a thema t ica l e xp lana t ion i ss imp ly ac l ea r , a ccu ra te e xp re s s ion o f t h e n umer ica l r e la t ion sh ip b e tween t wo o rm o re v a r iab le s . T he mode l p resen ted h e r e i s ag ood ma thema t ica l e xp lana t ion o f t h e r e la t ion sh ip b e tween e nv i ronmen ta l v a r iab le s a nd a r cha eo log ica l s i te l o ca t ion i n a p ar t icu la r a r ea . B y t h e s t anda rds o f w ha t m igh t b e c a l led i n tu i t ive o r l o g ica l e xp lana t ion , h oweve r , t h e mode l i sm e r e ly a n e x t r eme ly e xp l ic i t d escr ip t ion . I n tu i t ive e xp lana t ion t r i es t oa ch ieve t h e c omp lex a nd h a rd to -def ine g oa l o f u nde r s tand ing w hy t h ings h appen a s t h ey d o . T he m os t i mpo r t a n t p a r t o f u nde r s tand ing i s c au sa t ion . G iven a l aw , i n t h is c a se a n a l geb ra ic e xp re s s ion o f ar e la t ion sh ip , w ha t i sn eeded i s ar e a son f o r t h a t l aw . B ra i thwa i te ( 1968 ) s ays t h a t t h e w ay t oa ch ieve t h i s i st oe xp la in t h e l aw i nr e la t ion t oh ighe r leve l l aw s . T h i s i sn o t am a thema t ica l p o s s i b i l i ty , a nd h e d i scus se s a tl e ng th t h e i n ab i l i ty o f s c ience t op rov ide t h i s k ind o fa n swe r . Ap a r t ia l s o lu t ion t ot h is p rob lem h a s b een a t temp t ed i nt h e f i e ld o f c au sa l mode l ing . T h i s i s as e r ies o f f o rma l t e chn ique s a pp l icab le t o a l im i ted n umbe r o f t y pe s o f ma thema t ica l m ode ls . U nf or tuna te ly , c au sa l mode l ing i sn o t a pp l icab le i n t h i s c a se b ecau se o f t h e mode l 's u se o f p o ly tomou s v a r iab le s ( Knoke a nd B u rke 1 980 ) . T he r efo re , ag a in i n i mpu ta t ion o f c au se t o t h e r e la t ion sh ip c ou ld o n ly b e m ade a t t h e e xpen se o f al o ss i nr e so lu t ion .

7 0

I n a ny c a se , t h e g a in f r om c au sa l mode l ing i sn o t a s g r ea t a s i s n eeded f o r a n i n tu i t ive e xp lana t ion . B y d emand ing c ovar ia t ion , t ime o rde r ing , a nd e l im ina t ion o f o t he r p o s s ib le c au sa l f a c to r s , t h e r o le o f s ome f a c to r s i n i n f luenc ing o t he r f a c to r s c an b e d emon s t ra ted ( A she r 1 976 ) . H oweve r , t h i s r e a l ly o n ly e l abo ra te s o n t h e h ow . I ts t i l l d oe s n o t e xp la in t h e w hy , a nd U s lane r p o in t s o u t t h a t t h e t e chn ique o f CAUSAL MODEL ING c anno t e s tab l i sh i mp l i c a t ion s a s p h i losophe r s c oncep tua l ize i t : " t ha t b ecau se o f w h ich s ome th ing i so r b ecomes " o r " any th ing r e spon s ib le f o r c hange , mo t ion , o r a c t ion . " N o s t a t i s t ica l t e chn ique c an d ea l w i th " f ina l c au ses " b ecau se t h e n a tu r e a nd l im i ta t ion s i n he ren t i n CAUSAL MODEL ING a r e t hose o f a ny i n exac t , n onde term in i s t ic , a nd f l ex ib le mode l . ( U s lane r , E d i to r 's I n t roduc t ion , A she r 1 976 :5 ) A ga in , a s B ra i thwa i te s ay s , an on -de te rm in i s t ic mode l c anno t p rov ide t h e w hy . S imu la t ion mode l ing a t temp t s ab ack -doo r s o lu t ion t o t h i s p rob lem . A s p a r t o f t h e mode l ing p roce s s as e r ies o f e ven t s i s h ypo the s ized . T hen t h e o u tcome o f t h e h ypo the s ized e ven t s i sc ompa r ed w i th r e a l i ty , c l a im ing t h a t i ft h e f i ti sg ood ap o s s ib le c au se h a s b een f ound . When a c au se i sf ound f o r as equence o f e ven t s w ho se o u tcome d up l ica te s r e a l i t y , t h e re i s av a l id s en se o fh av ing u nde r s tood t h a t r e a l i ty . T he p rob lem i st h a t many d i f f e r en t c ause s a nd p roce s se s c an r e su l t i n t h e s ame o u t c ome , a nd t h e re i sn o q uan t i ta t ive b a s i s f o r d e te rm in ing w h ich i sb e s t b eyond m a thema t ica l ly r ank ing t h e a c cu racy o f t h e o u tcome s , w h ich a ga in i g no re s i n tu i t ive e xp lana t ion . T h i s p rob lem i sc ompounded w hen o n ly o ne mode l i se xam ined , a s i su sua l ly t h e c a se . F ur the rmo re , s i nce p a rame te r s a r e u sua l ly a d ju s ted t oi mp rove a ccu r a cy a s p a r t o f t h e s imu la t ion p roce s s , q uan t i ta t ive t e s t ing b ecome s e x t reme ly s u spec t . I n c on t ra s t t o d e sc r ip t ive mode l s , w h ich a r e e a sy t o t e s t b u t h a rd t oi n terp r e t c ausa l ly , s imu la t ion mode l s a r e e a sy t oi n terp r e t c au sa l ly b u t h a rd t o t e s t . I ti sf o r t h e se r e a son s t h a t t h e u sefu lne ss o f mode l s m igh t b e s a id t o l i e " no t i n a nswer ing q ue s t ion s b u t i n r a i s ing t h em . " ( P ie lou 1 977 :109 , a u thor 's e mpha s i s ) S ince t h e mode l p r e sen ted h e r e d i d n o t a t temp t t o mode l t h e s e t t le m en t p roce ss , i ti sn a tu ra l t o a sk w ha t i td oe s mode l , e spec ia l ly s i nce i t d oe s s o f a i r ly e f f ec t ive ly . T he b es t a n swe r t o t h i s i st h a t i tp robab ly mode ls t h e t hough t s o f a r chaeo log i s t s a s t h ey t r y t o g ues s w he re a r chaeo log ica l s i tes w i l l b e l o ca ted w h i le l o ok ing a t am ap .

7 1

T ab le 1 1 T e s to fE xpec t ed S en s i t iv i ty f o rA nde r son S ens i t iv i ty

N umber o fQ uad ra t s

Number o fS i tes

S i t e sP er Q uad ra t

L ow Mode ra te

2 44 9 4

8 2 7

. 0 3 . 2 9

4 6

4 7

H igh

1 . 15

T ab le 1 2 T e s to fE xpec ted S en s i t iv i ty f o rB e ar S en s i t iv i ty

L ow Mode ra te H igh

Number o fQ uad ra t s

Number o fS i t es

10 4 9

S i t e sP er Q uad ra t

3 4

6 1

. 0 3 . 0 8

1 9

. 3 1

T h i s g ue s s ing p roce s s i sp a r t o fr e po r t ing s u rvey r e su l t s , a nd b o th o f t h e r e po r t s u sed h ad m ap s o f e xpec ted s en s i t iv i ty w h ich w e r e d one i n a dvance o f f i e ldwo rk . When t h e se m ap s w e r e c oded a nd t e s t ed f o r a ccu racy i n t h e s ame f a sh ion a s t h e m ode l r e su l t s , t h e g ue s se s w e r e f ound t ob e q u i te a ccu ra t e , a s s hown i nT ab le s 1 a nd 1 2 . Wh i le t h ey d o n o t a ch ieve t h e s ame l e ve l o f d e ta i l , a nd p rov ide n o b a s i s f o r c om p a r i son b e tween a r ea s , t h ey p er f o rm q u i te w e l l a t t h e l e ve l t h ey d o a ch ieve . T he s en s i t iv i ty m ap s w e r e d r awn u p o n t h e e xpec ta t ion t h a t s i te s w ou ld b e l o ca t ed i nr e la t ive ly f l a t a r ea s a d ja cen t t os t r eam s a nd o t he r s ou r ce s o f w a te r . Ma jo r s i t e s w e r e e xpec t ed t o b e f ound i n e co tone e nv i ronmen t s , e s pec ia l ly t h o se b e tween c on i f e r -oak

w ood land s

a nd

o pen

g r a s s

r i pa r ian e nv i ronmen t s a nd e i the r e nv i ronmen t s . (ACRS 1 978 ( l ) :14 )

o f

a r ea s , t h e

o r b e tween o t he r

t wo

T he s im i la r i ty b e tween t h e f a c to r s u sed b y t h e a r cha eo log i s t s a nd t h o se u sed b y t h e mode l i sc l ea r , a nd i ti sl i ke ly t h a t t h e f undamen ta l s o f t h e p r ed ic t ion p roce s s a r e s im i la r , t o o . I n r e a ch ing p r ed ic t ion s o f a r cha eo l o g ica l s en s i t iv i ty , t h e a r chaeo log i s t s w e r e p r obab ly w o rk ing w i th w ha t m igh t b e c a l led t h e " s ub jec t ive l i ke l ihood " o f as i t e , a nd s ome f a c to r s d ec r ea sed t h i s w h i le o t he r s i n c r ea sed i t . T h i s i st h e s ame g ene ra l p r inc i p l e t h a t l i e s b eh ind t h e l o g l inea rm ode l .

7 2

H av ing d emon s t ra ted t h e se s im i la r i t ie s , i tc ou ld b e s a id t h a t a l l t h a t h a s b een a ccomp l i shed i st o p rove t h e o bv iou s . T h is c an b e c oun te r ed w h im s ica l ly , p e rhap s , b y s ay ing t h a t h i s to ry s how s t h a t o f ten t h e o bv i o u s n eed s t ob e p roved ; t h ough amo r e r e a sonab le r e p ly i st h a t t h e o bv i o us i sc r ea ted b y p roof . A mo re p rac t ica l o u t look i ss imp ly t o a g r ee w h i le s t r e ss ing a n i mpo r tan t p o in t : t h a t t h e o bv iou s h a s b een m ade much m o r e e xp l ic i t . T he c apab i l i t ie s o ft h e mode l a r e n o mo r e t h an a n e x ten s ion o ft h o se o f ac ompe ten t a r chaeo log i s t , b u t t h ey a r e a n i mpo r tan t e x ten s ion . Wh i le t h e t h ough t s o f t h e a r chaeo log i s t c anno t b e e xam ined , t h e i n te rna l p roces se s o f t h e mode l a r e p er f ec t ly e xp l ic i t . I f s c ience i sl o oked a ta s t h e p roces s o f r educ ing t h e n umbe r o f t h ing s w h ich mu s t b e t a ken o n f a i th , t h e s t udy j u s t d e sc r ibed i sa n e xamp le o fi t . A f te r a l l t h ese d i sc la ime r s , i ti sw o r th p o in t ing o u t t h a t , w h i le t h e mode l ing p roce ss u sed d oe s n o t p rov ide a c au se f o r t h e p henomenon m ode led , i td oes p rov ide a s o l id e mp i r ica l b a s is f o r s pecu la t ion s a bou t t h a t c au se . I n t h e e nd , a ny g ood e xp lana t ion w i l l i n vo lve a n a l te rna t ion b e tween ma thema t ica l a nd i n tu i t ive a pp roaches , u n t i l a b a lance i s a ch ieved . I ti s w or th e xam in ing s ome o f t h e p os s ib le d i r ec t ion s t h a t c ou ld b e f o l lowed . T he r e la t ion sh ip s b e tween n a t ive p opu la t ion s a nd t h e e nv i ronmen t c an b e c l a r if i ed o n t wo l e ve l s . T he f i r s t l e ve l i si nt h e a r ea o f d ec i s ion m ak ing . T he ma thema t ica l mode l a s s igned w e igh t s t o f a c to r s a nd c om b ina t ions o f f a c to r s i n o rde r t o p r ed ic t s i te l o ca t ion s . I td oe s n o t s e em u n r ea sonab le t o a s sume t h a t t h ese w e igh t s r e f lec t t h o se a s s igned b y t h e p eop le u s ing t h ose s i te s i nt h e p roce ss o f c hoo s ing t h e i r l o ca t ion s . T h i s i sn o t t os ay t h a t t h e m ode l i s ad ec i s ion mode l , b u t t h a t b y s how ing t h e r e la t ive i mpo r tance o f t h e f a c to r s i n p r ed ic t ing l o ca t ion s , i tm ay g ive s ome i d ea o ft h e i mpo r tance o ft h o se f a c tor s i nc hoo s ing l o ca t ion s . T he s e cond l e ve l i si n t h e a r ea o f b ehav io r . L ook ing a t a n a r ea s o le ly i nt e rms o f s i te s i s as omewha t n a r row p e r spec t ive o n h uman u se o f l a nd . D oub t les s , a l l t h e l a nd w a s u sed a tl e a s t o cca s iona l ly f o r s ome p urpose , t h ough s ome o f i tw a s u sed m o re f r equen t ly , f o r mo re p u r p oses , a nd i nw ay s mo r e l i ke ly t ol e ave b eh ind e v idence o f t h o se a c t iv i t i e s . A mode l w h ich p rov ides p robab i l i t ie s o f s i te s a l so p rov ides a n i d ea o f l a nd u se f r equency . T he r e a son ing b eh ind t h i s i sf a i r ly s imp le . A g iven a c t iv i ty h a s a c e r ta in p robab i l i ty o f r e su l t ing i n a r chaeo log ica l e v idence o f i t se lf . T he mo r e l i ke ly o ne i st o f i nd e v idence , t h e m o r e f r equen t ly t h a t a c t iv i ty i s

7 3

l i ke ly t oh ave o ccu r red . T he r efo r e , am ap o fa n a r ea t h a t s how s t h e p ro b ab i l i ty o f f i nd ing ag i ven k i nd o fc u l tura l r ema in a l so s how s , t h ough t o al e ss a ccu ra te e x ten t , t h e r e la t ive f r equency o f o ccur r ence o f t h a t k ind o fc u l tu ra l a c t iv i ty . F o ley ( 1981) h a s e xp lo r ed t h i s t o p ic a tg r ea t d ep th u nde r t h e n ame o f " of f -s i te a r chaeo logy . " H e p o s i t s c on t inuou s u se o fl a nd , a nd b o th h i s s u rvey t e chn ique a nd a na ly s is a r e b a sed o n t h i s . H e f i nd s t h i s a pp roach t o b e v e ry e f f ec t ive f o r a na lyz ing l a nd u se . Wh i le t h e mode l p r esen ted h e re b egan w i th a s i te -o r ien t ed s u rvey , i ti si n te r e s t ing t h a t t h e r e su l t s o f t h e a na ly s is a l so p o in t t o c on t inuou s l a nd u se , w i th s ome a r ea s u sed much mo re t h an o the r s . As imp le e xp lana t ion t h a t t i e s t o ge the rd ec i s ion -mak ing a nd l a nd u se t o e xp la in s i te l o ca t ion i n vo lve s j udgemen t s o f w ha t m igh t b e c a l led e nv ironmen ta l ma l leab i l i ty . V ege ta t ion i sd i r ec t ly m a l leab le , a s i tc an b e a l te r ed t h rough t h e s y s tema t ic u se o f f i re . Wa te r r e sou rce s a r e n o t a s m a l leab le i n ad i r ec t w ay , b u t a r e i n d i r ec t ly m a l leab le i n t h a t t h ey a r e f a i r ly t r an spor tab le . L and form a nd s l ope a r e a l so l e s s d i r ec t ly m a l leab le , a nd a r e n o t t r an spo r tab le . T hese j udgemen t s c an s e rve a s ab a s i s f o r e xp la in ing t h e w e igh t ing o f f a c to r s i n s i te l o ca t ion . L andfo rm , t h e l e a s t m a l leab le , e xe r t s t h e g r ea te s t i nf luence o n s i te s e lec t ion . V ege ta t ion a nd w a te r r e sou rce s a r e c er ta in ly n o l e s s e s sen t ia l f a c to r s f o r h ab i ta t ion , b u t b ecau se t h ey a r e mor e ma l leab le , e xer t w eake r i nf luences o n s i te s e lec t ion . C on s ide ra t ion s s uch a s t h e se a r e , o f c ou r se , s omewha t s pecu la t ive . T he mo s t a ccu ra te u se o f t h e mode l i sf o r i t s i n tended p urpo se , t h a t o f p r ed ic t ing t h e l i ke l ihood o f f i nd ing a r chaeo log ica l s i te s .

C on c lu s ion s

a bou t wha t i sa c tua l ly t h e re t ob e f ound , w ha t b ehav io r r e su l ted i nw ha t i sa c tua l ly t h e r e , a nd w ha t t h ough t p roce s se s l e d t o t h a t b ehav io r o bv i o us ly b ecome p rog r e ss ive ly mo r e s p ecu la t ive ( c f . D o ran a nd H od son 1 975 :94 -96 ) .

H oweve r , t h e se a r e c ommon a nd u sefu l s pecu la t ion s , a nd

a r e t h e r e su l t , n o t t h e b a s i s o ft h e mode l . •

G iven t h e b enef i t s o f t h e mode l , i ti sw o r th c on s ide r ing t h e i mpo r -

t a nce o f i t s f a i lu r e t o mode l p roce s s . H odde r make s t h e s t ronge s t s t a te m en t , s ay ing , " i f o ne c an p roduce ag ood c opy o ft h e a r chaeo log i ca l d a ta n o th ing i s p roved o the r u ncon s ide r ed p roces se s m ay h ave b een a t w ork . " ( Hodde r 1 978 :135 ) S ince t h e g oa l o f my p ro jec t w a s p r ec i se ly t op roduce a " good c opy " o f t h e d a ta a va i lab le , i ti sc l ea r t h a t t h e r e su l t s -

a r e af a i lu r e b y t h e s t anda rd sj u s t e xp r e s sed .

7 4

H oweve r , i tc ou ld b e a r gued t h a t t h o se s t anda rd s a r e u nnece s sar i ly s t r ic t .

H odde r , h im se lf , i n as l igh t ly e a r l ie r w o rk ( Hodde r 1 977 ) , s a y s

t h a t ar andom mode l i so f t en v e ry e f f ec t ive i ns t udy ing p roce s s , c l a im ing t h a t wh i le n o d ec i s ion i sr andom , at r emendou s n umbe r o f d ec i s ion s i n a gg rega te g i ve t h e c umu la t ive a ppea rance o f r andomnes s . b u t i n adequa te i nt e rm s o fh i s e a r l ie rq uo te a bove .

T h is i st r ue ,

P e rhaps w ha t i sn eeded h e re i st o d i s t ingu i sh b e tween w ha t s hou ld b e d one a nd wha t c an b e d one . E x t r eme ly s oph i s t ica ted t h eory a nd a na lys i s r equ i r es e x t r eme ly s oph is t ica ted d a ta . T h i s , w i th a f ew e xcep t i on s , i sl a ck ing i na r chaeo logy . A s P or tuga l i p o in t s o u t , a r chaeo log ica l d a ta a bou t p o in t d i s t r ibu t ion o f s e t t lemen t s i s s evere ly d i s to r ted , o ur d a ta a bou t s i ze d i s tr ibu t ion i si n comp le t e ( t o s ay t h e l e a s t ) , a nd u sua l ly w e h ave n o ( o r a lmos t n o ) i n f o r ma t ion a bou t s pa t ia l i n te rac t ion . I tf o l low s t h a t i na r chaeo l o gy w e a r e l e f t w i th a s pa t ia l t h eo ry w h ich , o n t h e o ne h and , i s d er ived f r om u n te s tab le a s sump t ion s a bou t g ene ra l p r inc ip le s , a nd o n t h e o t he r h and , c anno t b e s uppor ted e xpe r imen ta l ly . ( Por tuga l i 1 980 :37 -38 ) .

.

.

T h i s i se spec ia l ly t r ue i nt h e c a se o f t h e d a ta Iu sed . I tw a s s u rvey d a ta w i th n o e xcava t ion , w h ich m ade d e te rm ina t ion o f c on tempe rane i ty i mpo ss ib le . T her e w e re c l ea r ly many t h ings w h ich c ou ld n o t b e d one w i th i t . I ts e em s t o m e t h a t t h e mo s t a pp rop r ia te c ou r se i n as i tua t ion l i ke t h i s i st od e t e rm ine w ha t c an b e d one , a nd t h en d o i ta sw e l l a s p o s s ib le . Wha t Ih ave d one , i n a n a t temp t t o u nde r s tand mo re a bou t s e t t lemen t p a t t e rn s , i st o mode l t h e b ehav io r , i nt h e f o rm o f s i te r e po r t s , o fa r chaeo l o g ica l s u rveyo r s .

T h i s i s al im i t ed g oa l , b u t i tn o t at r iv ia l o ne .

T he

r e su l t s h ave c l a r if ied s ome i mpo r tan t e nv i ronmen ta l r e la t ion sh ip s , a nd p romp ted u se fu l s pecu la t ion o n o the r s . H odde r 's w a rn ing a ga in s t t h e i n adequa cy o f " good c op ie s "

o f

a r chaeo log ica l d a ta i sv a l id , b u t i ti s al o ng range p e r spec t ive . I ti sv i ta l n o t t o l o se s i gh t o f t h e u l t ima te g oa ls i n a ny e n te rpr ise , b u t i ti sa l so v i ta l t o r emembe r t h a t t h e a ch ievemen t o f t h ose g oa l s i s ap roce s s , a nd t h a t wha t a ppea r t o b e u l t ima te ly i n adequa te e f for t s may b e n ece s sa ry s t ep s a l ong t h e w ay .

7 5

C hap te r 9 CONCLUSION T he e va lua t ion a bove h a s s hown t h a t t h e m ode l i sf a i r ly s ucce s sfu l a ti t s i n tended p u rpo se . Mo re w o rk s hou ld b e d one t ot a ke i n to a ccoun t v ar ia t ion i nt h e e nv i ronmen t s o f s t udy a r ea s , s uch a s at wo -s tage v e r s ion u s ing t h e e x i s t ing t e chn ique a s t h e s e cond s t age , b u t a s i ts t and s , t h e mode l i s ar e a sonab ly g ood m e thod f o r p r ed ic t ing a r chaeo log ica l s i te d en s i ty f r om e nv i ronmen ta l v a r iab le s . Any s ucce ss fu l m ode l c an b e t r ea ted a s av i nd ica t ion o f t h e a s sump t i on s a nd t e chn ique s t h a t l e d u p t o i t . T he se w e re a l l j u s t if i ed a tt h e i r i n t roduc t ion , b u t i ti sw o r th r e v iew ing t h em i nt h e l i gh t o f s ucce ss , r e ex a m in ing t h e i r i mpo r tance a nd v a l id i ty . T he b a s ic a s sump t ion s f o r t h e s t udy w e r e , f i r s t , t h a t s ome l o ca t ion s a r e mo re s u i tab le f o r s ome p u rpo se s t h an o t he r s , a nd s e cond , t h a t e nv i ronmen ta l f a c to r s w e r e t h e k ey i n t h i s c a se , s o t h a t a r chaeo log ica l s i tes a r e l o ca ted i n r e la t ion t o t h em . S ince e nv i ronmen ta l f a c to r s a r e v ery g ood p r ed ic to r s o fs i te l o ca t ion s , t h ese a s sump t ion s w e r e b orne o u t . A b i t o f c au t ion i sa dv i sab le h e r e . T he a c tua l m e thod t r ea ted s i t e l o ca t ion a s d ependen t o n ly o n e nv i ronmen ta l f a c to r s . Wh i le t h i s w a s a n e x t r eme ly p roduc t ive a s sump t ion , t h a t d oe s n o t m ean i ti st r ue . T he r e w e re c er ta in ly a v a r ie ty o f c u l tu ra l f a c to r s i nf luenc ing s e t t lemen t . P e rhaps i ti su sefu l t o d i s t ingu i sh b e tween t r ue a nd u sefu l a s sump t ion s . T he a s sump t ion t h a t o n ly e nv i ronmen t i nf luenced s e t t lemen t p a t te rn i s a lmos t c e r ta in ly u n t rue , b u t i ti sd emon s t rab ly u sefu l . T he t e chn iques o f b u i ld ing t h e mode l a l so n ece s s i ta ted an umbe r o f s imp l if ica t ion s t h a t n eed t o b e e xam ined . B ecau se t h e u se o f q uad ra t s w a s n ece ssa ry t oh and le t h e a r ea l n a tu re o f t h e d a ta i n dependen t o f s i te l o ca t ion , a r chaeo log ica l s i te l o ca t ion w a s t r ea ted f r om t h e b eg inn ing a s a p rope r ty o f a n a r ea r a the r t h an t h e p rope r ty o f ap o in t . S ome o ft h e o r i g i na l i n forma t ion w a s i g no red b y d o ing t h i s , b u t d e scr ip t ive a na ly s i s s howed t h a t an umbe r o f i n te re s t ing p a t te rn s c ou ld b e e xp lo red u s ing d a ta c oded t h is w ay , i n d ica t ing t h a t t h e g a in sj u s t if i ed t h e l o s se s . T he l o g l inea r m ode l a c tua l ly u sed t o p r ed ic t s i te d en s i t ie s h ad t o i g no re many o f t h e se p a t tern s . A s ar e su l t , i t s c onc lu s ion s w e re

7 7

r e la t ive ly s imp le . S imp l ic i ty i s b o th t h e a dvan tage a nd d r awback o f mode l ing . I ti s a n a dvan tage b ecau se i th e lp s c la r i fy r e la t ion sh ip s , a d rawback b ecau se i ti g no r e s many f a ce t s o f t h em . S ince e ve ry s t ep o f t h i s s t udy i gno red s ome a spec t s o f t h e p r ev iou s s t ep i no rde r t oc oncen t r a te o n o the r s , t h e f i na l mode l i s t h e p roduc t s imp l i f ica t ion s . I ti sn o t h a rd t oc r i t ic ize i tf o r t h i s , b u t

o f

s u cce s s ive

i ti sa lway s p o s s ib le t oa r gue t h a t t h e m ode l u sed i st o o s imp le . T he c ruc ia l q ues t ion i sw he the r o r n o t t h e g a in i n o b jec t iv i ty a nd p r ec i s ion a ch ieved b y u s ing a m a thema t ica l mode l a t o ne p o in t i n a n a r gumen t i s o r i s n o t o u twe ighed b y t h e o ve r s imp l if i ca t ion s a nd d i s to r t ion s w h ich i t s u se r e qu i r es e l sewh e r e . T he re i sn o g ene ra l a n swe r t ot h i s q ue s t ion . ( Do ran a nd H od son 1 975 :292 , a u thor s ' e mpha s is ) I n t h i s c a se , t h e r e w e r e g a in s i na ccu racy , p r ec i s ion , a nd e xp l ic i tne s s o ve r t h e p red ic t ion s o f at r a ined a r chaeo log i s t . T he p r ed ic t ion s f o rmed a b a s is f o r c ompa r i son t h a t e ncou raged f u r the r r e sea rch b y h i gh l igh t ing d i f f e r ences b e tween t wo a r ea s . T he re w a s ag a in i nb o th p ra c t ica l a nd r e sea rch v a lue , s o i ts e em s , a ga in , t h a t t h e a dvan tage s o u twe igh t h e d rawback s . P rob lem A rea s T h i s i sn o t t os ay t h e re a r e n o p rob lem s w i th t h e r e su l t s . T he t e chn i c a l p rob lems o f t h i s s t udy c an b e d i v ided i n to t wo k i nds , t h ose c ommon t oa l l s t ud ie s u s ing a r chaeo log ica l s urvey d a ta , a nd t h o se p ecu l ia r t ot h i s m e thod o fa na ly s is . T he p rob lem s w i th s u rvey d a ta a r e f am i l ia r . I nd iv idua l v a r ia t ion i n t h e e va lua t ion o f s i te s a nd i mper f ec t c ove rage d ue t o t o pog raphy a nd v ege ta t ion a r e t y p ica l o f s u rvey r e su l t s . V ege ta t ion m ay b e t h e mo s t i mpo r tan t f a c to r , a nd i ti sp o s s ib le t h a t v a r ia t ion i n s i te d i s t r ibu t ion b y v ege ta t ion t y pe i sa s much t h e r e su l t o f s u r f ace v i s ib i l i ty a s o f s i te l o ca t i on . T he r efo r e , t h e mode l m ay n o t b e p r ed ic t ing w he r e s i te s a r e a s much a s w he re t h ey c an b e f ound . I nd iv idua l v a r ia t ion a mong t h e s u rveyo r s a l so p l ay s a n i mpor tan t r o le .

C oombs ( 1979 ) f ound i mpor tan t a nd h i gh ly s i gn if ican t d i f f e rence s

b e tween s urveyo r s w i th s im i la r b ackg round s .

A n a t temp t w a s m ade t o

r educe t h e p rob lem i n t h is s t udy b y u s ing r e por t s f r om t h e s ame c om p any , b a sed o n s u rvey s made d u r ing t h e s ame f i e ld s e a son . H oweve r , i t i si mpos s ib le t os ay h ow s ucce ssfu l t h i s w a s .

7 8

T he s e cond k i nd o f p rob lem i s t h a t p ecu l ia r t o my m e thod o f a na ly s i s . S ome p rob lem s o f t h i s k i nd h ave a l r eady b een m en t ioned i n p a s s ing . T hey i n c lude t h e a ccu ra cy a nd c omp le t ene s s o f t h e m ap s u sed a s ad a ta b a se , t h e c r udene s s o ft h e m ea su r emen t d ev ice , a nd t h e r e s t r ic t i on s i n he r en t i nu s ing t h e m ode l c ho sen . O n t h e m ap s , t h e r e i ss ome i n con s i s ten cy i n t h e c l a s s if i ca t ion o f s t r eam s , t h e d om inan t v ege ta t ion t y pe i sb a sed o n v e ry b road c r i te r ia , a nd t h e a c cu r acy o f t h e b ounda r ie s f o r v ege ta t ion a nd g eo logy i sn ea r ly a s g r ea t a s t h e d imen s ion s o f t h e q uad ra t s . T he se p r ob lem s d o n o th ave r e ady s o lu t ion s . T he q uad ra t s i ze c ou ld b e e n la rged , b u t o n ly a t ac o s t i nr e so lu t ion . S u rvey c r ew s c ou ld b e s en t o u t t os upp lemen t i n fo rma t ion f r om m ap s , b u t i ft h ey w e r e i nt h e f i e ld a nyway , i tw ou ld b ej u s t a se a sy f o r t h em t ol o ok f o r s i te s . T he u se o f q uad r a t s i n c od ing i sa l so a s ou r ce o f i n accu r acy , b u t w h i le 4 0 a c r e s qua r e s a r e a dm i t ted ly ac r ude w ay t o d i v ide u p a n a r ea f o r c od ing , t h e r e d oe s n o t s e em t ob e ab e t te r w ay t od o i t . S ome a r b i t r a ry s hape o fc on s i s t en t s i ze i sn ece s sa ry , b o th t oa vo id b i a s w hen c od i n g a r ea s t h a t h ave a l r eady b een s u rveyed , a nd t o e nab le e va lua t ion o f e n t i re a r ea s t h a t h ave n o t y e t b een s u r veyed f o r s i t e s . As qua re i sp rob a b ly t h e mo s t a pp rop r ia t e s hape , a nd 4 0 a c r e s , 1 / 4 m i le s qua r e , i ss ma l l e nough t o b e u sefu l , b u t l a rge e nough t o b e p r a c t ica l f o r c od ing l a rge a r ea s . C on s ide r ing o n ly t h e d om inan t f o rm o f t h e e nv i ronmen ta l f e a tu r e b e ing e xam ined a l so c au sed p rob lem s i no cca s ion b y i g no r ing s ub t le t ie s i nt h e d i s t r ibu t ion s . A t t h e s ame t ime , t h e se s imp l ify ing m echan i sm s a r e v i ta l ly n ece s sa ry t o r e ach a v a l id p r ed ic t ion , s o t h e a r b i t r a ry n a tu re o f c od ing b y q uad ra t s i sb o th as t rong a nd aw eak p o in t . F ina l ly , t h e r e a r e p rob lem s r e su l t ing f r om t h e m a thema t ica l mode l u sed . T hough i ta ppea r ed t ob e t h e m o s t a pp rop r ia t e o ne , a s d i scu s sed e a r l ie r , i tp l aced c e r ta in r e s t r ic t ion s o n t h e r e su l t s . B o th t h e n umbe r o f v a r iab le s a nd t h e n umbe r o f c a t ego r ie s f o r e a ch v a r iab le w e re k ep t a s l ow a sp o s s ib le t om in im ize t h e n umbe ro fe mp ty c e l l s . T he se e f fo r t s c on t r ibu t ed t o t h e s t a t i s t ica l v a l id i ty f o r t h e f i na l m ode l , b u t r e duced i t s a b i l i ty t o h and le e x t r eme c a s e s a nd r a r e e ven t s . T h i s m igh t b e s o lved t o ad eg r ee b y e n la rg ing t h e d a ta b a se , b u t t h en t h e m ode l m igh tb ecome s oc omp lex t h a t i tw ou ld b e d i ff i cu l t t oi n t e rp r e t . T he p rob lem s o f i n te r p r e ta t ion a nd e xp lana to ry v a lue h ave b een d i s c u s sed a tl e ng th . I ne s sence , t h e c onc lu s ion r e a ched w a s t h a t t h e m ode l c on t r ibu te s l i t t le t ou nde r s tand ing s e t t lemen t p roce s s i nt h e a r ea . I td oe s , h oweve r , p rov ide as o l id e mp i r ica l b a se f o r s ome i n t e r e s t ing s p ecu la t ion s

7 9

b y p rov id ing r ank s f o r t h e i mpo r tance o f d i f f e ren t e nv i ronmen ta l f a c to r s i np red ic t ing s i te l o ca t ion . A f te r t h i s e l abo ra t ion o f p rob lem s , i ti s i mpo r tan t t o r e s ta te t h e s t r eng ths . T he mo s t i mpo r tan t s t r eng th o f t h e mode l i s s imp ly t h a t i t w o rk s . U s ing r e ad i ly a va i lab le i n forma t ion , c oded s imp ly a nd a na lyzed t h rough a w ide ly a va i lab le p ackage p rog r am , i tp r ed ic t s a r chaeo log ica l s i te d en s i ty w i th c on s ide rab le a ccu racy a nd i sq u i te r obu s t i nt h e f a ce o f c hanges i n t h e d a ta . I n t h e p roce s s i tv i o la tes n o i mpo r tan t s t a t i s t ica l a s sump t ion s , a nd p roduce s a mode l o f h igh s t a t i s t ica l s i gn if i cance . I ti s ag ood p r ed ic t ive mode l . P o ten t ia l U se s o ft h e Mod e l A g ood p r ed ic t ive mode l c ou ld h ave a tl e a s t t wo p rac t ica l u se s o u t s i de a na ly s i s . T he f i r s t i si n p lann ing , t h e o r ig ina l ly i n tended u se . I f p r ed ic t ion s o f a r chaeo log ica l s i te l o ca t ion c ou ld b e g ene ra ted q u ick ly w i thou t f i e ldwo rk , l o ng -range p l ann ing w ou ld b e g r ea t ly f a c i l i ta ted . F i e ldwork w ou ld s t i l l b e r equ i red b efo r e d eve lopmen t (W i lde sen 1 977 ) , b u t whe re s eve ra l c ho ices w e re a va i lab le f o r ad eve lopmen t p rob lem , a g ood p r ed ic t ion c ou ld a s s is t b o th i n c hoo s ing b e tween t h em a nd i n e s t ima t ing t h e e ven tua l c o s t o fp ro tec t ing t h e a r chaeo log ica l r e co rd . T he s e cond u se w ou ld b e i n f i e ldwo rk i t se lf . Mo r e a nd mo r e a r chaeo log ica l s u rvey s a r e d one u s ing s t ra t if ied r andom s amp l ing . I n f a c t , t h e t e rms o fG ove rnmen t c on t rac t s o f ten s pec ify t h is , a l ong w i th t h e s i zes o f t h e s amp le s a nd t h e m anne r o f t h e s u rvey ( e g . C oomb s 1 979 ) . C on s t ruc t ing ap red ic t ive mode l a f t e r t h e f i r s t p a ss w ou ld p rov ide ac l ea r e mp i r ica l b a s i s f o r s t ra t ify ing t h e a r ea i np r epa ra t ion f o r s ucce s s ive s am p l e s . Wh i le t h e a bove s how s t h a t t h e mode l c ou ld b e u sefu l i n d a ta c o l l e c t ion , i ta l so h a s u se s f o r a na ly s i s . P robab ly t h e mo s t i mpo r tan t u se i s t o c l ar ify p a t tern s , b y e xam in ing b o th p a t t e rn s a nd e xcep t ion s t o t h em . T h is w a s d one a bove w i th B ea r C ompa r tmen t , a nd s how s t h e u sefu lne s s o fh av ing e xpec ta t ion s o ft h e d a ta , e ven i ft h ose e xpec ta t ion s a r e w rong . C onc lu s ion T he mode l p r e sen ted i nt h i s p ape r a ch ieves i t s p urpo se w i th r e a son a b le s ucces s . I tp r ed ic t s t h e d en s i ty o f a r chaeo log ica l s i te s w i th f a i r a ccu racy .

H oweve r , b eyond p o in t ing o u t i mpor tan t e nv i ronmen ta l f a c -

t o r s , i tc on t r ibu tes l i t t le t o t h e u nde r s tand ing o f w hy s i te s w e re l o ca ted w he r e t h ey a r e .

A t b e s t , i tp e rhaps m im ic s t h e p r ed ic t ion p roce ss o f a n

8 0

a r chaeo log i s t . T he l a ck o f e xp lana t ion i sd ue i nl a rge p a r t t o t h e u se o f ap roba b i l i s t ic mode l , a nd e xp la in s t o ad eg r ee t h e i n c rea s ing i n t e r e s t i ns imu la t i on m ode l s . H oweve r , m uch o ft h e f a i lu r e t og i ve s a t i s f ac to ry e xp lana t i on s i sd ue t ot h e u se o f am a thema t ica l m ode l . Wh i le t h e m ode l p r o v i des a n e f f ec t ive m a thema t ica l e xp lana t ion f o r s i te l o ca t ion , i td oe s n o t p r ov ide a s a t i s fa c to ry i n tu i t ive e xp lana t ion , b ecau se t h e g r amma r o f m a thema t ica l e qua t ion s d oe s n o t i n c lude c au sa t ion , w h ich i s v i ta l t o i n tu i t ive u nde r s tand ing . T he g r ea te s t a na ly t ic u se o f t h e m ode l p r e sen t ed m ay b e a s ar em i n de r t h a t t h e re a r e d i f f e r en tk i nd s o fe xp lana t ion , a nd t h a t o n e c anno tb e i g no r ed a tt h e e xpen se o f t h e o t he r . I n t h i s mode l , i n tu i t ive e xp lana t ion w a s w i l l ing ly i g no r ed a s a n o b s tac le t o t h e a ch ievemen t o f as p ec if i c g oa l . T he d e s i r ed g oa l w a s a ch ieved , b u t h ad m o r e b een d emanded , w ha t a r e o t he rw i se c onv inc ing r e su l t s c ou ld h ave e a s i ly b een r e ga rded a s af a i lu r e .

8 1

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S chne ider , K en t A . & F ran tz , R ober t S . ( 1977 ) . C u l tu ra l R e sou r ce s a nd L and P lann ing : A r chaeo logy a nd GR ID , P ha se I . A rchaeo logy a nd N a t iona l F ore s t L and Managemen t P lann ing , A rchaeo log ica l R epor t N o . 1 6 , p p . 9 -21 . USDA F o re s t S e rv ice , S ou thwe s te rn R eg ion , A lbuque rque . S cho l tz , S andra C . & M i l l ion , M ichae l G . ( 1 981 ) . A Managemen t S y s tem f o r A r chaeo log ica l R e sou rce s . Da ta B ank A pp l ica t ion s i nA r chaeo logy ( Ed . b y S . W . G a ine s ) , pp. 1 5 -26 . Un ive r s i ty o fA r izona P re s s , T uc son . Sm i th , C aro l A . ( 1976 ) . R eg iona l E conom ic S y s tem s : L ink ing G eog raph ica l Mode l s a nd S oc ioeconom ic P rob lem s . R eg iona lA na ly s i s , V o lume I :E conom ic S y s t em s ( Ed . b y C . A . Sm i th ) , pp. 3 -63 . A cadem ic P re s s , N ew Y o rk . S trah ler , A r thur N . ( 1952 ) . Hyp some t r ic ( A r ea -A l t i tude ) A na ly s i s o f E ro s iona l T opog raphy . B u l le t in o ft h e G eograph ica lS oc ie ty o f Amer ica 6 3 , 117 -1142 . T homa s , D av id Hur s t . ( 1972 ) . A C ompu te r S imu la t ion Mode l o f G rea t B a s in S ho shonean S ub s i s tence a nd S e t t lemen t P a t t e rn s . Mod e l s i nA r chaeo logy ( Ed . b y D . L . C la rke ) , p p . 6 71 -704 . Me thuen , L ondon . Thomas , D av id Hur s t . ( 1973 ) . An Emp i r ica l T e s t f o r S t ewa rd 's Mode l o f G rea t B a s in S e t t lemen t P a t t ern s . Amer ican A n t iqu i t y 3 8 , 1 55 -176 . Thunen , J . H . v on .

( 1966 ) .

V on T hunen 's I s o la t ed S ta t e .

E d . b y P . H a l l , T ran s .

b y C . M . Wo r tenbe rg . P e rgamon , O xfo rd . V i ta -F inz i , C . & H igg s , E . S . ( 1970 ) . P reh i s to r ic E conomy i n t h e M t . C a rme l A r ea : S i te C a t chmen t A na ly s i s . P roceed ing s o ft h e P r eh i s tor ic S oc ie t y 3 6 , 1 3 7 .

8 6

Weber , A lf red . ( 1929 ) . T heor y o ft h e L oca t ion o fI ndu s t r ie s . Un ive r s i ty o f C h i c ago P re s s , C h icago . Wie s lander , A . E . 1 40 -144 .

( 1935 ) .

A V ege ta t ion T ype Map f o r C a l i fo rn ia .

Wi lde sen , L es l ie E . ( 1977 ) . C u l tura l R e source Managemen t . v i ce , P ac i f ic No r thwe s t R eg ion . Win terha lder , B ruce & Sm i th , E r ic A lden .

( 1981 ) .

Mad rono 3 ,

USDA F o r e s t S e r -

P re f ace .

Hun ter -Ga therer

F orag ing S t ra teg ie s : E thnograph ic a nd A rchaeo log ica l A na ly se s ( Ed . b y B . Win te rha lde r &E . A . Sm i th ) , p p . I X -X . Un ive r s i ty o fC h icago P r e s s , C h icago .

8 7

APPEND IX A Da ta f or A nd er son : 4 0A cr e Q uad ra t s T he d a ta a r e s t o red a s mu l t ip le reco rd c a se s , w i th f our o r mo re r e co rd s p e r c a se . T h ree r e co rd s d e sc r ibe t h e e nv i ronmen ta l c ha ra c t e r i s t ic s o f t h e q uadra t : g eo l o gy , t opog raphy , a nd v ege ta t ion . T he r ema in ing r e co rd ( s ) d e sc r ibe a r chaeo log ica l s u rvey t e chn ique s a nd t h e a r chaeo log ica l s i te s p r e sen t , w i th e a ch s i te d e sc r ibed i n a s epa ra te r e co rd . T he r e co rd f o rma t s a r e a sf o l low s : C o lumn

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........ 10........20........ 30........40........ 50 ........60.... . 814 ADl 5 C 05-16-54- 19 BRM270 LFS M:>N HPT 500 1000 3.0 1 814GDGR 814 TD FS 3500-3600 1 s 814 vr 14 815 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-238 BRM 9 LFS MON 30 30 ? 5 815GDGR 815 TD FS 3500-3700 1 s 815 vr 14 6 816 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-239 BRM 16 RSC 0 5 816GDGR 816 TD� 3500-3700 1 s 816 vr 6 817 ADl 5 C 817GDGR 817 TD� 3500-3800 2 � 817 vr 6 14 818 ADl 5 C 818GDGR 818 TD BN CS 3600-3900 1 3 S 818 vr 6 14 819 ADl 5 C 819GDGR 819 TD� CS 3600-3800 2 2 SE 819 vr 14 820 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-242 BRM 21 2 3 0 2 820 AD2 5 C 05-16-54-243 BRM 6 50 30 ? 5 820 AD3 5 C 05-16-54-245 LFS 20 ? 5 40 820 AD4 5 C 05-16-54-246 BRM 3 1 3 0 5 820GDGR 820 TD ST FS 3500-3800 2 2 S Pl I 1 820 vr 14 821 ADl 5 C 821GDGR 821 TD� 3600-4000 3 w 11 821 vr 14 822 ADI 5 C 822GDGR 822 TD BN 4000-4100 1 w I 1 822 vr 14 �23 ADI 5 C 05-16-54-270 75 35 LFS M)N ? 5 823GD GR 823 TD BN FS 4100-4300 2 2 W I 1 823 vr 14 824 ADl 5 G · 824GDGR 824 TD FS 4200-4600 2 w 824 Vf 14S 14 825 ADl 5 G 825GD GR FM 825 TD� 4600-5300 4 w 825 Vf 17S 14S 826 ADI 5 G 826GD FM 826 TD CS FS 5100-5600 3 3 N Pl 826 Vf 17S 16S 827 ADI 5 C 101

........ 10........ 20........30........ ' 40 ........ 50 ........60..... 827 GD FM 827 TOMS CS 5300-6200 3 1 SN 827 VI' 16S 14 909 ADl 5 C 909 GDGR 4100-4200 1 909 TD ST SN 11 909 vr 14 9 910 ADl 5 C 910 GDGR 910 TD BN CS 4000-4300 2 2 SE 11 910 vr 14 6 911 ADl 5 C 911 GDGR FM 911 ID FS ST 3800-4000 2 1 SE Pl 911 vr 8 14 912 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-237 LFS ? 3 100 650 912 AD2 5 C 05-16-54-248 ? 1 LFS MDN 200 250 912 GD PM GR 912 ID BN ST 3600-3700 1 0 SE Pl 912 vr 14 s 913 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-248 LFS MDN 200 250 ? 2 913 GDGR 913 ID BN FS 3500-3700 1 2 E 913 vr 14 6 914 ADl 5 C 05-16-54- 19 BRM270 LFS M)N HPT 500 1000 3.0 2 914 GDGR 914 ID ST 3400-3500 0 s I1 914 vr 14 500 1000 3.0 2 915 ADI 5 C 05-16-54- 19 BRM270 LFS MON HPT 75 25 .2 2 LFS 915 AD2 5 C 05-16-54-108 915 GD GR S Pl 915 ID ST 3400-3500 0 915 vr 14 10 60 916 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-240 BRM 21 0 5 ? 5 20 916 AD2 5 C 05-16-54-241 BRM 53 30 916 GD GR S Pl 916 ID ST 3500-3500 0 6 916 vr 14 ? 5 5 LFS 150 917 ADI 5 C 05-16-54-131 917 GDGR 917 ID ST FS 3500-3600 1 2 S Pl 917 vr 14 6 918 ADl 5 C 918 GDGR -918 TD FS ST 3500-3600 2 1 S Pl 918 vr 14 6 919 ADl 5 C 919 GDGR 919 TD ST FS 3500-3600 1 2 S Pl 919 vr 14 100 100 .3 5 920 ADI 5 C 05-16-54-113 BRM 90 LFS M)N 920 GDGR W I 1 Pl 3500-3600 1 920 ID ST 920 vr 14 100 150 .5 I 921 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-247 BRM 5 LFS :MON 921 GD GR 102

, , . , , , , . 10........20........30........40........50........ 60..... 921 1D MS w 3600-3900 2 921 vr 14 922 ADl 5 C 922 GDGR 922 TD BN 3900-4100 1 w 922 vr 14 923 ADl 5 C 923 GDGR 923 TOMS FS 4100-4500 2 1 W 923 vr 14 924 ADl 5 G 924 GDGR W 4400-4900 3 924 TD MS 924 vr 14s 14 925 ADI 5 G 925 GD IM GR 4700-5500 5 925 TD MS w 925 vr 14s 926 ADl 5 C 926 GD IM S 5300-5600 2 926 TD CS 926 vr 14S 16S 927 ADI 5 C 927 GD IM S 5000-5400 4 927 TOMS 927 vr 14 16s 1007 ADl 1 C 1007 GDGR PM 1007 TD BN FS 4000-4300 1 2 S 1001 vr 14 1008 ADI 1 C 1008 GD GR 1008 TD ST SE 3900-4200 1 1008 vr 2M: 9 1009 ADI 5 C 1009 GDGR s 1009 TD ST 3900-4100 1 1009 vr 14 1010 ADI 5 C l(H0 GDGR S 3800-4100 2 1010 TOMS 1010 vr 14 6 1011 ADl 5 C 1011 GDGR SE 3800-4000 2 iOll TD MS 8 1011 vr 6 1012 ADI 5 C 05-16-54- 50 BRM 1012 AD2 5 C 05-16-54-249 BRM 1012 AD3 5 C 05-16-54-248 1012 GDGR SE 3600-3900 1 1012 TD ST 8 1012 vr 6 I O13 ADI 5 C 05-16-54-248 1013 AD2 5 C 05-16-54-251 BRM 1013 GD GR 1013 TD ST BN 3500-3700 1 1 SE

11 I1

4

24 LFS LFS M::>N'

75 40 200

50 50 250

? 5 ? 5 ? 1

200 40

250 50

? 2 .4 2

Pl 64

LFS M>N NIDN

103

........ 10........20........ 30........40........50........60..... 1013 1014 1014 1014 1014 1014 1015 1015 1015 1015 1015 1015 1016 1016 1016 1016 1017 1017 1017 1011 1018 1018 1018 1018 1019 1019 1019 1019 1020 1020 1020 1020 1021 1021 1021 1021 1022 1022 1022 1022 1023 1023 1023 1023 -1024 1024 1024 1024 1025 1025 1025 1025 1026 1026 1026 1026

vr 6 8 ADl 5 C 05-16-54- 19 BRM270 AD2 5 C 05-16-54-106 BRM 94 GD GR 3400-3500 0 s Pl ID ST vr 8 14 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-106 BRM 94 AD2 5 C 05-16-54-108 AD3 5 C 05-16-54- 19 BRM270 GD GR E Pl 3300-3500 1 ID ST vr 14 8 ADI 5 C GD GR ID ST FS 3500-3600 0 1 N Pl 6 vr 14 ADI 5 C GD GR ID ST FS 3500-3600 0 1 N s vr 14 14S ADl 5 C GD GR N 3500-3600 1 TD ST vr 14 ADI 5 C GD GR N 3300-3400 1 TD ST vr 14 ADl 5 C GD GR N 11 3300-3400 1 TD ST vr 14 ADI 5 C 05-16-54-247 BRM 5 GD GR TD MS FS 3600-3900 2 1 W vr 14 ADl 5 C GD GR 3900-4300 1 w TD MS vr 14 ADI 5 C GD GR 4200-4600 2 w TD M5 vr 14 ADl 5 G GD GR w 4500-4900 3 TD MS Vf 14S 14 ADI 5 G GD ™ GR w 4900-5500 5 TD MS Vf 14S ADl 5 C GD ™ E s 5000-5500 3 TD MS Vf 14S 16S

LFS LFS

HPT

500 1000 3.0 1 400 450 ? 1

LFS MON LFS LFS M)N HPT

? 2 400 450 75 25 .2 2 500 1000 3.0 1

LFS MON

100

M)N M)N

I1

104

150

.5 3

........10........20........30........40........50........ 60.....

1027 ADI 5 C 1027 GD PM E Pl S 1027TDMS 4700-5300 3 1021 vr 14 16S 1106 ADI 2 G 1106 GD PM 1106TD� s 3500-4000 3 1106 vr 14 SC 1107 ADI 4 C 1107 GD PM GR 1107TD CS MS 3700-4100 1 3 � 8 1101 vr 14 1108 ADI 5 C 1108 GD GR PM E 3800-4100 1 1108TD CS 110s vr 2M 6 1109 ADl 5 C 1109 GD PM GR 1109TOMS CS 3700-4100 5 3 W 11 1109 vr 6 14 1110 ADI 5 C 1110 GD GR PM � 3700-4100 1 1110 1D MS 1110 vr 6 14 1111 ADI 5 C 1111 GD GR 3600-3800 1 SE 1111 1D MS 1111 vr 6 1112 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-250 BRM 74 LFS LFS 1112 AD2 5 C 05-16-54-253 1112 GD GR SE Pl 3500-3700 1 1112 1D ST 1112 vr 6 LFS 1113 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-252 1113 AD2 5 C 05-16-54-254 BRM107 LFS 1113 AD3 5 C 05-16-54-255 BRM 27 LFS 1113 AD4 5 C 05-16-54-251 BRM 64 1113 GD GR E Pl 3300-3500 1 1113 1D ST n13 vr 6 1114 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-102 BRM 34 1114 AD2 5 C 05-16-54-103 BRM: 74 LFS 1114 AD3 5 C 05-16-54-106 BRM 94 LFS 1114 GD GR 3300-3500 1 w Pl P2 ·1114 1D ST 8 1114 vr 6 1115 ADI 5 C 05-16-54-106 BRM: 94 LFS LFS 1115 AD2 5 C 05-16-54-277 1115 GD GR NN 3400-3600 1 1115TD ST 1115 vr 6 14 1116 ADI 5 C 1116 GD GR NN 3500-3800 1 1116TD ST 1116 vr 6 14 1117 ADI 5 C 105

M)N

50 25

75 25

MDN

100 75 100 40

50 100 200 50

100 100 400

100 225 450

? 5 ? 3 ? 1

400 15

450 15

? 2 ? 5

M)N

MDN

M)N

MDN

M:>N

MDN MON

? 5 ? 5

? ? .5 .4

5 5 5 2

........10........20 ........30 ........ 40 ........ 50 . .......60 .... .

1117GDGR 1117 TD ST 3600-3900 1 "NH 1117 Vf 14S 6 1118 ADI 5 C 1118 GDGR 3700-4000 2 N 1118 TD FS 1118 vr 14S 6 1119 ADI 5 1119GDGR 3700-4000 2 N 1119 TD FS 1119 Vf 14S 6 1120 ADI 5 C 1120GDGR 1120 TD FS 3700-4000 2 NE 1120 Vf 14S 14 1121 ADI 5 C 1121GDGR 1121 TD FS 3700-3900 2 N 1121 vr 14S 14 1122 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-259 BRM 1122GDGR 1122 TD BN CS 3900-4200 1 2 W 1122 Vf 14 14S 1123 ADl 5 C 1123GDGRPM 4200-4500 2 W 1123 TD FS 1123 vr 14 1124 ADl 5 G 1124GDPM GR 1124 TOMS 4500-5000 3 W 1124 Vf 14S 14 1125 ADl 5 C 1125GDPM 5000-5400 3 SW 1125 TD MS 1125 Vf 14S 1126 ADI 5 C 1126 GDPM 1126 TOMS 5000-5400 3 SE 1126 vr 14 16S U27 ADl 5 G 1127GDPM 1127 TD MS 4500-5100 4 E 1127 Vf 14 16S 1204 ADl 1 C -1204GDPM 1204 TD MS 3200-3500 3 S 1204 Vf 14 14S 1205 ADl 3 G 1205GDPM 3200-3600 3 S 1205 TD MS 1205 Vf SC 14 1206 ADl 5 G 1206 GDPM 1206 TD MS 3300-3700 2 SW 1206 vr 14 8C 1207 ADl 5 G

Il

25 LFS M)N

PI

11

106

75

25

? 5

........10........20........ 30........40........50 ........60.....

1207 GD IM 1207 TD Mi FS 3500-4000 3 2 S 1201 vr 8 14 1208 ADl 5 G 1208 GD IM 3400-4100 4 SE 11 1208 TDM.S 1208 vr 14 8 1209 ADl 5 G 1209 GD IM 1209 TDM.S CS 3600-4100 5 3 W 11 1209 vr 6 1210 ADl 5 C 1210 GDGR IM 1210 TD FS 3600-4000 2 E 1210 VT 6 1211 ADI 5 C 1211 GDGR 1211 TD BN 3500-3700 1 E 1211 VT 6 1212 ADI 5 C 05-16-54-256 1212 GDGR IM 1212 TD BN 3500-3700 2 W 1212 VT 6 1213 ADI 5 C 1213 GDGR IM 1213 TD FS 3300-3700 3 SE P2 1213 VT 6 14 1214 ADI 5 C 05-16-54-103 BRM 74 1214 GDGR 1214 TD FS 3200-3400 2 W P2 1214 vr 6 14 1215 ADl 5 C 1215 GDGR 1215 TD M5 3400-3800 2 NN 1215 vr 6 1216 ADl 5 G 1216 GDGR 3700-4000 2 NN 1216 TD Mi 1216 vr 6 1217 ADI 5 G 1217 GDGR 1217 TD Mi 3800-4200 3 NN 1217 Vf 6 14S 1218 ADl 5 G 1218 GDGR IM 1218 TDM.S 3900-4300 2 N 1218 Vf 14S 6 1219 ADI 5 C 05-16-54-257 BRM 6 1219 GD IM GR 1219 TD BN CS 4000-4300 2 2 N 11 1219 vr 14S 6 1220 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-257 BRM 6 1220 AD2 5 C 05-16-54-258 1220 GD GR IM 1220 TD M.S 3900-4200 2 NE 1220 VT 14S

75

50

? 5

LFS M)N

100

225

? 2

LFS

200

37 5

? 3

LFS LFS

200 25

3 75 25

? 2 ? 5

LFS

107

........ 10 ........20........30........40 ........ so.

1221 1221 1221 1221 1222 1222 1222 1222 1223 1223 1223 1223 1224 1224 1224 1224 1225 1225 1225 1225 1226 1226 1226 1226 1227 1227 1227 1227 1303 1303 1303 1303 1304 1304 1304 1304 1305 1305 1305 1305 1306 1306 1306 1306 -1307 1307 1307 1301 1308 1308 1308 1308 1309 1309 1309 1309

ADl 5 C GD GR 3800-4100 TOMS VI' 14S ADl 5 C GD GR TD BN 4000-4200 VI' 14S 14 ADl 5 C GD FM GR TOMS BN 4200-4500 VI' 14S 14 ADl 5 G GD FM TOMS 4500-5000 VI' 14S 14 ADI 5 C GD FM TD CS 4800-5100 VI' 14S 16S ADI 5 G GD FM TDMS 4700-5200 VI' 14 14S ADI 4 G GD™ TDMS 4400-5100 Yr 14 16S ADI 1 C GD TDMS CS 3200-3900 Yr 14 SC ADI 4 C GD ™ TDMS CS 3100-3600 Yr 14S 14 ADI 5 C GD FM TDMS CS 3100-3500 VI' 14 14S ADI 5 G GD FM TOMS CS 3100-3600 vr 14 ADI 5 G GD FM 3400-3700 TD CS vr 14 8 ADl 5 C GD FM TDMS 3300-3700 vr 14 s ADI 5 G GD FM TDMS CS 3600-4100 vr 6 9

™

2

N

1

W

S

2 2 W 4

W

3

E

4

S

5

SE Pl

6 3 NE II 4 2 NE II 4 2 NE II 3 2 SVt/ 2

SVt/

4

S

11

5 3 W

108

1

• • • • • •

60.....

........10........20........ 30........40........ so ......

1310 ADl 5 C 1310 GD PM GR 1310 TD CS 3700-4000 2 E 1310 vr 6 1311 ADl 5 C 1311 GD PMGR 1311 TD CS MS 3200-3800 2 5 SE 1311 vr 6 SC 1312 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-101 BRM 64 LFS M:>N 1312 GDGR IM 3100-3600 3 1312 TOMS s 1312 vr 6 14 1313 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-101 BRM 64 LFS NON 1313 GDGR �P2 3100-3500 2 1313 TD MS 1313 vr 6 14 1314 ADl 5 C 1314 GDGR IM 3200-3700 3 w 1314 TD FS 1314 vr 6 14 1315 ADI 5 G 1315 GDGR IM NN 3500-3900 3 1315 TD MS 1315 vr 6 1316 ADl 5 G 1316 GDGR IM NN 3800-4300 3 1316 TOMS 1316 vr 6 1317 ADl 5 G 1317 GD IM GR NN 4100-4700 3 1317 TD MS 1317 vr 6 14S 1318 ADl 5 G 1318 GDGR IM NE 4300-4800 3 1318 TOMS 1318 vr 14S 6 1319 ADl 5 C 1319 GDGR IM NE I 1 4200-4500 2 1319 TD FS 1319 vr 14S 1320 ADl 5 C 1320 GD IM GR NE 4100-4300 1 1320 TD BN 1320 vr 14S ·1321 ADl 5 C 1321 GD IM GR E 4000-4300 2 1321 TD BN 1321 vr 14S 1322 ADl 5 C 1322 GD GR IM s 4000-4300 2 1322 TD CS 1322 vr 14S 14 1323 ADl 5 C 1323 GD IM GR w 4200-5000 2 1323 TD BN 1323 vr 14S 14 109

.. 60.... .

500

200

? 2

500

200

? 2

........ 10........20........30........40........ so . ....... 60.....

1324 1324 1324 1324 1325 1325 1325 1325 1326 1326 1326 1326 1327 1327 1327 1327 1403 1403 1403 1403 1404 1404 1404 1404 1405 1405 1405 1405 1406 1406 1406 1406 1407 1407 1407 1407 1408 1408 1408 1408 1411 1411 1411 1411 1 . 412 1412 1412 1412 1412 1413 1413 1413 1413 1414 1414 1414

ADl 5 G GD FM GR IDMS FS 4900-5500 4 2 W VT 14S 14 ADl 5 C GD FM ID CS MS 4800-S100 3 5 W VT 14S 16S ADl 5 G GD FM IDMS CS 4100-5000 4 2 E VT 14 16S ADl 3 C GD PM IDMS 4300-4800 4 S VT 14 16S ADI 1 C GD fM 3600-3900 2 � TD CS SC VT 14 ADl 4 C GD PM ID CS 3400-3800 3 E VT 14S 5 ADl 5 C GD fM TD MS 3100-3600 4 E VT 14S 14 ADI 5 C GD PM 3100-3400 3 s TD MS vr 14 ADI 5 C GD PM TD CS MS 3200-3600 2 4 SE VT 14 9C ADl 5 G GD PM IDMS 3300-3600 4 SW VT 14 9C ADI 4 C GD PM GR E 3100-3700 S IDMS vr 6 SC ADl 5 C 05-16-S4-278 BRM: AD2 S C 05-16-54-101 BRM: GDGR . NE 3100-3400 2 TD FS vr 6 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-101 BRM: GDGR NE 3100-3400 3 TD FS vr 6 ADl 5 C GD PM GR TOMS FS 3300-4000 5 4 W

Pl

11 I1 11 I1 P2 30 LFS M)N 64 LFS M)N

50 500

100 200

? 5 ? 1

500

200

? 1

P2 64 LFS 11 P2

110

........ 10 ........20........ 30 ........40 ........ so .

1414 VT 6 9C 1415 ADI 5 C 1415 GD PMGR 1415TDMS NN 3700-4300 5 1415 VT 9C 6 1416 ADI 5 C 1416 GD PM w 11 1416TDMS 4000-4600 5 1416 VT 9C 6 1417 ADl 5 C 1417 GD PM 1417TDMS 4300-5000 5 NN I 1 1417 VT 6 14S 1418 ADl 5 C 1418 GD PM NE I 1 4700-5000 5 1418TDMS 1418 Vf 14S 6 1419 ADl 5 G 1419 GD PMGR 4400-4800 3 NE 11 1419TDFS 1419 Vf 14S 6 1420 ADl 5 C 1420 GD GR PM NE 4200-4400 2 1420TDFS 1420 Vf 14S 14 LFS 1421 ADI 5 C 05-16-54-263 1421 GD GR PM SE 4100-4200 1 1421 1D � 1421 vr 14 14S 1422 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-264 BRM 7 1422 GD GR PM s 4000-4100 1 1422TD� 2M 1422 vr 14 LFS 1423 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-272 1423 GD GR PM � 4100-4300 2 1423TDMS 2M 1423 vr 14 1424 ADl 5 C 1424 GD GR PM � 4300-4500 2 1424TDFS 1424 VT 14 1425 ADl 5 G 1425 GD PM 1425 ID CS MS 4600-5100 2 5W 1425 VT 14S 14 1426 ADl 5 C 1426 GD IM E 4800-5000 2 1426 ID BN 1426 vr 16S 14S 1427 ADl 4 G 1427 GD FM E PI 4300-4900 5 1427TDMS 1427 Vf 16S 14 1428 ADl 1 G 1428 GD PM � PI 4300-4900 5 1428TDMS 111

M)N

. . . . . . . 60.....

100

100

? 5

5

5

0 5

35

35

? 1

........10........20....... :30........40 ....... . so....... . 60.... .

1428 1504 1504 1504 1504 1505 1505 1505 1505 1506 1506 1506 1506 1507 1507 1507 1507 1508 1508 1508 1508 1511 1511 1511 1511 1512 1512 1512 1512 1513 1513 1513 1513 1514 1514 1514 1514 1515 1515 1515 1515 1516 1516 1516 ·1516 1517 1517 1517 1517 1518 1518 1518 1518 1519 1519 1519

vr 16S 14 ADl 2 C GD FM IDMS

vr

2 ADl 5 C

GDFM

s

3100-3800 4

SE

SE 3000-3500 4 1D MS 14S 2 ADl 5 C GD FM � 3000-3300 2 1D ST vr 14 9C ADl 5 G GD FM w 3100-3600 5 1D MS vr 9C 14 ADl 5 C GD FM ·N 3400-3700 2 1D CS 5 vr SC ADl 4 C GDGR NN 3100-3300 3 1D FS 8C vr 6 ADl 5 C GDGR TDMS CS 3100-3500 3 3 NN vr 9C 6 ADl 5 C GDGR 3300-3500 2 · NE TDFS vr 9C 6 ADl 5 C GDGR fM w 3300-3800 4 TDFS vr 9C 6 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-279 BRM GDGR fM � 3600-4300 6 TDMS vr 9C 6 ADI 5 C GDfM GR w 4000-4600 5 TDMS 9C vr 6 ADI 5 C GDfM w 4500-5100 5 1D MS 9C 6 vr ADl 5 C GDfM NE 4700-5100 2 TD CS Vf 14S 6 ADl 5 C GDfM NE 4500-4900 3 1D MS

vr

11 11 I 1 I1

P2

I1

I1

8

5

11 11 I1 I1

112

8

0 5

........ 10........20.........30........40 ........ 50........60..... 1519 Vf 14S 1520 ADl 5 C 1520 GD GR FM 1520 TD FS NE 11 4300-4700 2 1520 Vf 14S 1521 ADI 5 C 1521 GD GR FM E Il 4100-4300 1 1521 TD ST 1521 Vf 14S 14 1522 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-265 BRM 22 1522 GD GR 1522 TD ST s I1 3900-4000 1 1522 vr 14S 2M 1523 ADI 5 C 05-16-54-272 1523 AD2 5 C 05-16-54-273 BRM 1 1523 AD3 5 C 05-16-54-274 BRM 18 1523 AD4 5 C 05-16-54-275 1523 GD GR 1523 TD ST 4000-4200 1 2M 1523 vr 14 1524 ADl 5 C 1524 GD IM GR 1524 TD PS 4100-4600 3 1524 vr 14 1525 ADl 5 G 1525 GD IM 1525 TD� CS 4400-5100 5 3 � 1525 vr 14 14S 1526 ADl 5 G 1526 GD IM � 4500-5000 3 1526 TD� 1526 Vf 14S 14 1527 ADI 5 G 1527 GD IM 4300-4800 4 1527 TD� � 1527 Vf 16S 14S 1528 ADI 5 G 1528 GD FM S Pl 4200-4400 4 1528 TDM5 1528 Vf 14 16S 1605 ADI 4 C 1605 GD FM s 12 2900-3100 5 1605 TDM5 1605 vr 9 14 .1606 ADl 5 C 1606 GD FM NN 12 3000-3500 5 1606 TDM5 1606 vr 9C 9 1607 ADl 5 C 1607 GD FM SW 1607 TD CS 3200-3600 3 1607 Vf 9C 5 1608 ADI 5 C . 1608 GD FM s 3200-3700 5 1608 TDM5 1608 vr 5

LFS 1vOO LFS LFS LFS M)N

It

113

200

100

? 5

35

35 135

? 3 ? 5 0 5 ? 5

50

25 10

50

30

........10........20 ........ 30........ 40 ........50........60.... .

1611 1611 1611 1611 1612 1612 1612 1612 1613 1613 1613 1613 1614 1614 1614 1614 1615 1615 1615 1615 1616 1616 1616 1616 1617 1617 1617 1617 1618 1618 1618 1618 1619 1619 1619 1619 1620 1620 1620 1620 1621 1621 1621 1621 -1622 1622 1622 1622 1623 1623 1623 1623 1624 1624 1624 1624

ADl 4 G GDPMGR TDM.5 3200-3800 5 N vr 6 14 ADl 4 G GDPMGR TDM.5 3300-4100 5 N vr 6 9C ADl 5 G GDGR PM 3500-4100 4 NN TD M5 vr 9C ADl 5 G GD GR TDM.5 3600-4200 4 N Vf 9C 14S ADl 5 G GD GR TDM.5 3600-4100 4 N vr 9C 14S ADl 5 G GDPMGR TD M5 CS 3900-4500 5 4 NN Vf 9C 6 ADl 5 G GDPM TD� 4400-4800 4 � vr 14S 6 ADI 5 C GDPM TD CS M5 4700-5100 3 4 � vr 14S 6 ADl 5 C GDPM TD CS 4800-5100 3 NE Vf 14S 14 ADl 5 G GDPM TD� 4500-5000 4 E Vf 14S SC ADl 5 C GDPMGR TDM.5 4100-4600 4 E Vf 14S SC ADl 5 C GD GR PM TD FS 3800-4200 2 NE Vf 14S SC ADl 5 C GDGR TD ST 3700-4000 2 � Vf 14 14S ADI 5 C 05-16-54-276 BRM GD FM GR TDM.5 FS 3800-4400 4 3 � vr 14

11

11 11 6

114

10

10

0 5

........10 ........20........ 30 ........ 40 ........50........60.....

1625 ADl 5 G 1625 GD PM 1625 TD M5 4300-4900 4 1625 vr 14 14S 1626 ADl 5 G 1626 GD PM 1626 TD M5 4300-4900 4 1626 vr 14 14S 1627 ADl 4 G 1627 GD PM 1627 1D M5 3900-4500 4 1627 vr 14 16S 1628 ADl 1 G 1628 GD PM 4100-4800 6 1628 TD MS 1628 vr 14 16S 1705 ADl 3 G 1705 GD PM 1705 TD MS 2900-3300 4 1105 vr 9 14 1706 ADl 5 G 1706 GD PM 1706 ID MS CS 3300-3500 4 2 1106 vr 9C 9 1707 ADl 5 C 1707 GD PM 1707 ID CS 3300-3500 3 1707 VT 5 9C 1708 ADI 3 C 1708 GD PM 1708 ID Mi 3000-3500 4 1108 vr 5 14 1711 ADl 1 G 1711 GD PM 1711 TD CS 3500-3900 3 1111 vr 9C 6 1712 ADl 1 G 1712 GD PM 3800-4200 3 1712 IDMS 1112 vr 9C 14 1713 ADI 1 G 1713 GD PMGR 4000-4300 2 1713 TD CS 1113 vr 9C 14S 1 . 714 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-262 1714 AD2 5 C 05-16-54-261 1714 GD GR PM 4100-4200 1 1714 TD CS 1714 Vf 14S 9C 1715 ADl 5 C 05-16-54-261 1715 AD2 5 C 05-16-54-260 1715 GD GR PM 4100-4300 2 1715 TD CS 1115 vr 9C 14S 1716 ADI 5 C 1716 GD PM GR

SW SE SE Pl

w

Pl

s

12

SE SE SE NiN SW N LFS LFS

M)N

20

75 20

20 50

I 00

50

? 5

? 2

s LFS LFS SE

115

20

? 2

.1 5

........10........20........30........40........ 50 . .......60.....

1716 TD CS 4200-4600 1716 VT 14S 9C 1717 ADl 5 C 1717GDFM 1717 TD FS 4300-4600 1717 VT 14S 1718 ADI 5 G 1718GDFM 1718 TOMS 4400-4700 1718 VT 14S 1719 ADl 5 G 1719GDFM 1719 TDMS 4500-5000 1719 VT 14S 14 1720 ADl 5 G 1720GDFM 1720 TDMS CS 4400-5000 1720 VT 14 SC 1721 ADl 5 G 1721GDFM 1721 TOMS 4200-4800 1721 VT 9 14 1722 ADl 5 G 1722GDFMGR 1722 TOMS 3900-4500 1722 VT 9 14 1723 ADl 5 C 1723GDGR FM 1723 TOMS 3700-4200 9 1723 VT 14 1724 ADl 5 G 1724GDGR FM 1724 TOMS 3600-4200 1724 VT 14 SC 1725 ADI 5 G 1725GDFM GR 1725 TOMS 3700-4500 1725 VT SC 14 1726 ADl 5 G 1726GDFM 1726 TDMS CS 4000-4500 1726 VT 14S 14 1727 ADI 4 G 1727GDFM -1727 TDMS 3800-4200 1727 VT 14 14S 1805 ADl 1 C 1805 GDFM 1805 TDMS CS 2900-3400 1805 VT 14 1806 ADl 4 C 1806GDFM 1806 TOMS 2900-3400 1806 VT 5 14 1807 ADl 4 C 1807GDFM

3

NN

3

SW

3

S

4

SW

5

4 NE

5

NE

5

NE

5

NE 11

5

SE 11

6

SW

5

E

5

S

5

SE 12

5

S

Pl

P2 12

116

........10........20........30........40........50........ 60.... .

1807 TDM5 3900-3300 5 s P2 1807 vr 5 8 1808 ADl 2 C 1808 GDFM 1808 TDM5 3000-3400 5 SN P2 1808 vr 9C 14 1815 ADl 1 C 1815 GDFM GR 1815 TD CS 4200-4400 3 SN 1815 VI' 14S 9C 1816 ADl 3 C 1816 GDFM 4200-4500 3 1816 TD CS s 1816 VI' 14S 1817 ADl 5 C 1817 GDFM s 11 4100-4500 3 1817 TDM5 1817 VI' 14S 1818 ADl 5 G 1818 GDFM s 4200-4500 2 1818 TDM5 1818 VI' 14S 1819 ADl 5 G 1819 GDFM SN 1819 TDM5 4300-4900 3 1819 VI' 14S s 1820 ADl 5 G 1820 GD PM 1820 TDM5 CS 4600-5000 4 3 SN 1820 vr 14 SC 1821 ADl 5 G 1821 GDFM 1821 TD CS M5 4500-5000 4 5 NE 1821 vr 8C 9 1822 ADl 5 G 1822 GDFM NE 4300-4900 5 1822 TDM5 1s22 vr 8C 9 1823 ADI 5 G 1823 GD GR FM NE 3800-4400 5 1823 TDM5 1823 vr 8C 14 1824 ADI 5 C 1824 GD GR E 3500-3800 3 1824 TD FS SC 1s24 vr 14 1825 ADl 5 G 1825 GDFM GR SN 3500-4200 5 1825 TDM5 1s25 vr SC 14S 1826 ADl 5 G 1826 GDFM SE 3800-4400 5 1826 TDM5 1826 VI' 14S 14 1827 ADl 2 G 1827 GDFM

117

........10........20........30 ........40 ........ 50 . .......60.....

1827 1827 1905 1905 1905 1905 1906 1906 1906 1906 1916 1916 1916 1916 1917 1917 1917 1917 1918 1918 1918 1918 1919 1919 1919 1919 1920 1920 1920 1920 1921 1921 1921 1921 1922 1922 1922 1922 1925 1925 1925 1925 1926 1926 -1926 1926 1927 1927 1927 1927 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018

TDMS 3600-4000 Vf 14 14S ADl 2 C 05-16-54GD PM TD FS 2900-3100 Vf 14 SB ADl 2 C GD PM TD CS FS 2800-3000 vr 14 s ADl 1 C GD PM 3900-4400 TDMS Vf 14S 5 ADl 4 C GD PM TDMS 4100-4300 Vf 14S ADl 5 C GD PM TDMS 39 00-4300 Vf 14S 5 ADl 4 G .. GD PM 390.0-4 5 00 TDMS Vf 5 SC . ADl 2 G GD PM TDMS 4100-4800 Vf SC 5 ADl 1 G GD PM TOMS 3900-4900 Vf SC 2 ADl 1 G GD PM TOMS CS 3900-4800 Vf SC 2 ADl 4 G GD GR FM TDMS 3300-3900 Vf SC 14S ADl 4 G GD PM GR TDMS 3400-3900 Vf 14 14S ADI 1 G GD PM 3500-4200 TDMS vr 14 ADl 3 G GD PM 4000-4200 TD CS Vf 14S 5 ADl 3 C GD PM

5

SW

51 BRM

9

3

S

P2 12

3

S

P2

4

NE 11

4

NE

3

SW I 1 S

3

SE

5

SW

6

SE

5

SW

5

SW 11

5

SE Pl

6

NN Pl

3

NE

1I8

10

5

05

........10........ 20........30........40 ........50........60.....

3900-4200 3 2018 TDMS 2018 VT 14S 5 2019 ADI 1 G 2019 GD FM 2019 TDMS 3800-4300 3 2019 VT 5 2025 ADl 1 G 2025 GDGR 3200-3600 5 2025 TDMS 2025 VT 14 SC 2026 ADI 1 G 2026 GD FM GR 2026 TDMS CS 3400-4100 5 SC 2026 VT 14 2117 ADl 1 G 05-16-54-266 2117 GD FM 2117 TD CS 4000-4200 5 2117 VT 5 2118 ADl 4 G 2118 GD FM 3700-4200 4 2118 TDMS 2118 VT 5 2119 ADl 1 G 2119 GD FM 3300-3900 5 2119 TDMS 2119 vr 5 2218 ADl 3 G 2218 GD FM 3700-4200 2 2218 ID CS 2218 vr 9C 5 2219 ADI 1 G 2219 GD FM 3000-3900 7 2219 ID MS 9C 2219 vr 5

SE 11

s s

Pl 11

NN Pl LFS �

NE 11 SE 11

E

SE 11

119

30

120

? 5

APPENDIX B Program Output for the Mathematical Model The following is the BMDP program output which was used to construct the mathematical model. The raw data for these calculations are presented in Appendix A. Only results from the final program run are displayed, but all important informa­ tion from the earlier, exploratory, runs is included. The text below includes all informative output from the run, but some reformatting, such as removing columns with no information and changing the arrangement of text to shorten some lines, was necessary to fit the original 132-column lineprinter output to the current format. =====-----------------------------------------=============

BMDP3F - MULt-_iWAY FREQUENCY TABLES--THE LOG-LINEAR MODEL HEALTH SCIENCES CCMPUTING FACILITY UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, LOS ANGELES 90024 PROGRAM REVISED NOVEMBER 1979 MANUAL REVISED -- 1979 COPYRIGHT (C) 1979 REGENTS OF UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA THIS PROGRAM HAS BEEN DESIGNED TO FIT MODELS TO DATA WHICH DO NOT HAVE CELLS WITH 'STRUCTURAL ZEROS', I . E. , CELLS WHICH ARE ZERO BY DESIGN. THE PROGRAM CHECKS FOR ZEROS IN THE FITTED TABLE BOTH IN THE 'SIMULTANEOUS' AND 'ALL' OPTIONS AND IN ANY MODEL REQUESTED IN THE 'FIT' PARAGRAPH. IF ANY ZEROS ARE FOUND, A WARNING IS PRINTED. WHEN THE ZEROS OCCUR IN THE FITTED VALUES, WE SUGGEST THAT THE CATEGORIES OF ONE OR MORE INDICES BE GROUPED OR A CONSTANT 'DELTA' BE ADDED TO EACH CELL. THEN RERUN THE PROBLEM. (DELTA=0.5 IS C�NLY USED.) WHEN ANY FITTED VALUE IS ZERO 1) THE DEGREES OF FREEDCM FOR ALL AFFECTED MODELS ARE TOO LARGE. 2) ALL CHISQUARES ARE CORRECT. 3) LAMBDAS, THE COEFFICIENTS OF THE ORTHOGONAL POLYNCl\1IALS AND THEIR STANDARD ERRORS ARE CORRECT UNLESS THERE IS A ZERO IN THE CORRESPONDING MARGINAL TABLE. FREEMAN-TUKEY DEVIATES CAN BE OBTAINED BY SPECIFYING 'FREEMAN' IN THE 'FIT' PARAGRAPH. WHEN LESS CATEGORY NAMES ARE DEFINED THAN THERE ARE CATEGORIES, THE UNNAMED CATEGORIES ARE COLLAPSED INTO A SINGLE CATEGORY WHICH IS TREATED AS A MISSING VALUE.

121

PROGRA M CONTROL

INFOR MATI ON

IBMDP3F /PROBLE M T I TLE I S ' PARAMETERS FOR ANDERSON'. /INPUT VARI ABLES ARE 5 . UNIT=51. FOR MAT I S ' (T 8 , F1. O// TIO,F1.0, T25, F1.O, T32 F1 0, T1Ø F1 O)' /VARI ABLE NAMES ARE NUMBER, LANDFOR M , SLOPE ‚WATER, VEGETATI ON. /TABLE INDICES ARE NUMBER, LANDFOR M , SLOPE ‚WATER ‚ VEGETAT ION SYMBOLS ARE N , L , S , W, V . DELTA I S 0 .5. / CATEGORY CODES(1) ARE 0 , 11 2 . NAMES(1) CODES ( 2) NAMES ( 2) CODES (3 ) NAMES (3) CODES ( 4 NAMES ( 4)

/ FI T

ARE

ZERO,

ONE,

ARE

0 ,

1 ,

2 ,

ARE ARE

CS,

MS, 0 ,

BN,

ThOPLUS. 3 ,

4 .

FS, ST. 1 ,

2 ,

3 . ARE ' 0-10', ' 10-20', ' 20-30', ' 30++' ARE 0 , 1 , 2 , 3 . ARE NONE, INTER MI T, SPRI NG, PEREN. ARE 0 , 1 , 2 , 3 .

CODES (5 ) NAMES (5 ) ARE HERB, SHRUB, MODEL I S NL, NS, NW , NV. BETA.

CORDWOOD,

T IMBER.

/ END

PROBLE M T I TLE NUMBER NUMBER

OF OF

PARAMETERS

VARI ABLES VARI ABLES

TOTAL NU MBER

OF

FOR

ANDERSON

TO READ I N ADDED BY TRANSFOR MATI ONS.

5 0

VARI ABLES

NU MBER OF CASES TO READ CASE LABELI NG VARI ABLES

5

IN

L I MI TS AND MISSI NG VALUE BLANKS ARE INPUT UNI T NUMBER

1 000000

CHECKED BEFORE

RE WI ND INPUT UNIT PRI OR TO READI NG. NUMBER OF WORDS OF DYNAMIC STORAGE INPUT FOR MAT

.

TRANSFOR MATI ONS ZEROS 5 1

DATA.

YES 1 16466

( T8, F1. 0/I T1O, F1.0, T25, F1.O, T32, F1.O, TJO, F1.Ø)

VARI ABLES 1 NUMBER NUMBER

OF

VARIABLE NO. NAME 1 NUMBER 2 LANDFOR M 3 SLOPE 4 WATER 5 VEGETATI

TO BE USED 2 LANDFORM CASES

3 SLOPE

4 WATER

5 VEGETATI

READ

3 79

MEAN

FREQ

S . D.

0 .19 1 .33 2 .38 0 .59 2 .51

3 79 3 79 3 79 3 79 3 79

0 .52 1 .07 0 .81 0 .96 0 .80

1 22

SMALLEST 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0

LARGEST 2 .00 4 .00 3 .00 3 .00 3 .00

BEFORE VARI ABLE NO. NAME 1 NUMBER

2

CATEGORY CODE 0 .00000

CATEGORY NAME ZERO

LANDFOR M

1 .00000 2 .00000 0 .00000

ONE TVOPLUS CS

SLOPE

1 .00000 2 .00000 3 .00000 4 .00000 0 .00000

MS BN FS ST 0 -10

WATER

1 .00000 2 .00000 3 .00000 0 .00000

1 0-20 2 0-30 3 0++ NONE

3

4

TRANSFOR MATI ON

5

TABLE

VEGETATI

NO.

1 .00000

I NTER MI T

2 .00000

SPRI NG

3 .00000

PEREN

0 .00000

HERB

1 .00000

SHRUB

2 .00000

CORDWOOD

3 .00000

T I MBER

1

VARI ABLE I NDICES SYMBOLS FOR I NDICES NUMBER OF LEVELS MAXI MU M NUMBER OF I TERATI ONS MAXI MUM PERMISSIBLE DIFFERENCE BET WEEN AN OBSERVED & F ITTED MARGI NAL TOTAL CONSTANT TO BE ADDED TO EACH FREQUENCY. NUMBER OF MODELS SPECIFIED .

.

1 N 3

.

.

2 L 5 20

THE FOLLOW I NG TABLE I S ANALYZED. WATER SLOPE LANDFOR MI NUMBER W S L I ZERO ONE

HERB

NONE

CS MS BN FS ST

1 0-20

CS MS BN FS ST

I I I I I I I I I I I I

1 23

4 W 4

5 V 4

0 .100 0 .500 1

VEGETATI V

0 -10

3 S 4

( N) IWOPLUS

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

1 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

2 0-30

I NTER MIT

S PRI NG

Cs

I

0

0

0

MS BN F S ST

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 1 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 1

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0

0

0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

3 0++

CS MS BN FS ST

0 -10

CS MS BN F S ST

1 0-20

CS MS BN F S ST

2 0-30

CS MS BN F S ST

3 0++

CS MS BN F S ST

0 -10

CS MS BN F S ST

1 0-20

CS MS BN F S ST

2 0-30

CS MS BN F S ST

1 24

I I I I I I I I I I I I I

3 0++

PEREN

Cs

I

0

0

0

MS BN . FS ST

I I I I I I I I I I I I I

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 -10

CS MS BN FS ST

1 0-20

CS MS BN FS ST

2 0-30

3 0++

SHRUB

NONE

0 -10

1 0-20

CS

I I I I I

0

0

0

MS

I

0

0

0

BN FS

I I

0 0

0 0

0 0

ST

I I

0

0

0

CS

I

0

0

0

MS

I

0

0

0

BN

I

0

0

0

FS

I

0

0

0

ST

I I

0

0

0

CS

I I

0

0

0

MS

I

0

0

0

BN

I

0

0

0

FS ST

I I I I

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

0

0

I I I I I I

2 2 0 1

1 0 0 0

0 0 0 2

CS MS BN FS ST

2 0-30

CS

2

0

0

7 0 1 0

0 1 0 0

0 0 0 0

CS MS BN FS

I I I I I I I I I

1 20 0 1

1 1 0 0

0 0 0 0

ST

I

0

0

0

MS BN FS ST 3 0++

1 25

I NTER MIT

0 -10

Cs MS BN FS ST

1 0-20

CS MS BN F S ST

2 0-30

CS MS BN

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0

0 1 0

0 0 0

I I I I I

0 0

0 0

0 0

0 8

0 0

0 0

BN FS ST

I I I I

0 0 0

0 1 0

0 0 0

0 -10

CS MS BN F S ST

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

1 0-20

CS MS BN F S ST

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

2 0-30

CS MS BN F S ST

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

3 0++

CS MS BN F S ST

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 -10

CS MS BN F S ST

I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

FS ST 3 0++

S PRI NG

PEREN

CS MS

1 26

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

CORDWOOD NONE

I NTER MIT

1 0-20

Cs MS BN F S ST

2 0-30

CS MS BN FS ST

3 0++

CS MS BN F S ST

0 -10

CS MS BN F S ST

1 0-20

CS MS BN F S ST

2 0-30

CS MS BN F S ST

3 0++

CS MS BN F S ST

0 -10

CS MS BN F S ST

1 0-20

CS MS BN F S ST

1 27

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 4

0 0 0 0 0

0 1 0 1 0

0 0 0 1 0

0 3 0 2 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 . 0

1 0 0 0 0

3 2 4 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

2 0-30

Cs

I

0

0

0

MS BN F S ST

0 0 1 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

CS MS BN

I I I I I I I I

0 9 0

0 1 0

0 0 0

F S ST

I I

1 0

0 0

0 0

0 -10

Cs MS BN F S ST

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

1 0-20

CS MS BN F S ST

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

2 0-30

CS MS BN FS ST

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

3 0++

CS MS BN F S ST

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 -10

CS MS BN F S ST

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 1

1 0-20

CS MS BN FS ST

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

2 0-30

CS MS BN . FS ST

I I I I I

0 0 0 1 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

3 0++

S PRI NG

PEREN

1 28

3 0++

T I MBER

NONE

0 -10

Cs

I

0

0

0

MS BN FS

I I I

1 0 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

ST

I I I I

0

0

0

0

0

0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

CS MS BN FS ST

1 0-20

Cs MS BN FS ST

2 0-30

CS MS BN FS ST

3 0++

I NTER MIT

0 -10

1 0-20

2 0-30

3 0++

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I

1 1

1

1

3 4 0 3

2 2 2 0

0 0 0 1

1 3 22 4

0 3 0

0 1 0

8 0

0 0

0 0

CS

I I I I

9

0

0

MS BN

I I

7 1 0

1 0

0 0

FS ST

3 0

0 0

0 0

CS

I I I I

0

0

0

MS

I

0

0

0

BN

I

0

0

0

FS ST

I I I

0 0

0 1

0 0 0

CS

I

0

1

MS

I

0

0

1

BN

I

2

1

0

FS ST

1 4

0 2

1 0

CS

I I I I

2

0

0

MS BN

I I

6 1

0 2

1 0

FS ST

I I I I I I I I I

4 2

0 0

0 0

0 3 4 0 1 0

0 2 0 0 0

0 1 0 0 0

CS MS BN FS ST

1 29

SPRI NG

0 -10

CS

I

0

0

0

MS BN FS ST

I I I I

0 0 0 1

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

1 0-20

CS MS BN FS ST

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0 0

20-30

CS MS BN

I I I I I I I I I

0 1 0

0 0 0

0 0 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

0

FS ST 3 0++

CS

0

0

1 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

0 0 0 0

CS

I I I I I I

0

0

0

MS

I

0

0

0

BN FS

I I

0 0

0 0

0 0

ST

I I

1

0

2

CS

I

0

0

0

MS BN

I 1

0 0

0 0

0 1

FS

I

0

0

0

ST

I

1

1

1

MS BN PS ST PEREN

0 -10

1 0-20

2 0-30

3 0++

* *FOR

ANALYSIS, THE TOTAL

I I I I

CS

I

0

0

0

MS BN

I I

0 0

0 0

0 0

FS ST

I I I 1 I I I 1

2 0

0 0

0 1

2 1 4 0 0 0

0 0 0 1 0

0 0 0 0 0

CS MS BN FS ST

0 .500 I S ADDED TO EACH CELL ABOVE FREQUENCY I S 3 79

1 30

THE

RESULTS

OF

F ITTI NG ALL

K -FACTOR MARGI NALS.

THIS I S A S I MULTANEOUS INTERACTI ONS ARE ZERO.

TEST

K-FACTOR 0 ( MEAN) 1

PROB. PEARSON CH I SQ 0 .0 9 641.25 1 .0000 1 036.10

PROB. 0 .0 0 .0192

IT ERAT I ONS

1 .0000 1 .0000 1 .0000

1 .0000 1 .0000 1 .0000

7 6 4

2 3 4

D .F 9 59 9 44

LR CH I SQ 1 546.40 7 49.14

8 55 5 94 2 16

2 12.98 6 4.59 1 7.40

A S I MULTANEOUS THE

ENTRIES

KFACTOR 1

ARE

D . F. 1 5

TEST

THAT

THAT ALL K+1

2 12.66 6 3.73 1 7.29

ALL K-FACTOR

DIFFERENCES

AND HI GHER

IN

THE

LR CHISQ 7 97.26

PROB. 0 .0

2

I NTERACTI ONS

ABOVE

FACTOR

ARE

ZERO.

TABLE.

PEARSON CHISQ 8 605.14

PROB. 0 .0

2

89

5 36.16

0 .0

8 23.44

0 .0

3 4 5

2 61 3 78 2 16

1 48.39 4 7.20 1 7.40

1 .0000 1 .0000 1 .0000

1 48.93 46.44 1 7.29

1 .0000 1 .0000 1 .0000

THE NUDEL NL ,NS,NW ,NV .

THETA

D .F . 9 18

FOLLOWI NG MODEL WAS

LR CH ISQ 4 21.87

P ROB . 1 .0000

(MEAN)

THE MULTIPLICATI VE

P ROB. 1 .0000

I TERATIONS 2

PARAMETERS

( BETA)

PARAMETERS

( BETA)

T Y YOPLUS

0 .999

ESTI MATES OF LANDFORM( L ) CS MS 0 .969

P EARSON CH ISQ 5 05.58

0 .579

ESTI MATES OF NU MBER (N) ZERO ONE 1 .044

F I T. .

0 .959

THE MULTIPLICATIVE

1 .595

BN

FS

ST

0 .817

0 .890

0 .890

1 31

ESTI MATES SLOPE ( S)

OF

THE MULTIPLICATI VE

0 -10

1 0-20

20-30

3 0++

0 .704

0 .996

1 .077

1 .323

ESTI MATES WATER (W )

OF

THE MULTIPLICATI VE

NONE

INTERMIT

SPRI NG

PEREN

1 .471

1 .090

0 .693

0 .899

ESTI MATES VEGETATI ( V)

OF

THE MULTIPLICATI VE

PARAMETERS

( BETA)

PARAMETERS

( BETA)

PARAMETERS

( BETA)

HERB

SHRUB

CORDWOOD T I MBER

0 .696

0 .998

0 .888

1 .623

ESTI MATES OF THE MULTIPLICATI VE PARAMETERS LANDFOR MI NUMBER (N) L I ZERO ONE TWOPLUS CS MS BN FS ST

I I I I I

1 .080 2 .150 0 .729 0 .863 0 .685

0 .950 0 .742 1 .222 1 .093 1 .063

0 .975 0 .627 1 .122 1 .061 1 .374

ESTI MATES OF THE MULTIPLICATI VE PARAMETERS SLOPE I NUMBER ( N) S I ZERO ONE TWOPLUS 0 -10 1 0-20 20-30 3 0++

I I I I

0 . 603 0 .772 1 .127 1 .905

1 .224 1 .119 0 .957 0 .763

PARAMETERS

ZERO

ONE

I

1 .827

0 .789

0 .694

I NTER MI T! SPRI NG I PEREN I

1 .109 0 .641 0 .770

1 .007 1 .218 1 .033

0 .895 1 .280 1 .258

NONE

I

1 32

( BETA)

1 .354 1 .158 0 .927 0 .688

ESTI MATES OF THE MULTIPLICATI VE WATER I NU MBER ( N) W

( BETA)

TWOPLUS

( BETA)

ESTI MATES OF THE MULTIPLICATI VE VEGETATII NUMBER ( N)

PARAMETERS

V

I

ZERO

ONE

1WOPLUS

HERB SHRUB

I I

0 .640 0 .934

1 .223 1 .024

1 .277 1 .046

COR 1YVOODI

0 .968

0 .983

1 .051

T I MBER

1 .729

0 .813

0 .712

BMDP3F HEALTH

I

MULTI WAY FREQUENCY TABLES--THE SCIENCES C 1PUTI NG FACILITY -

LOG-LI NEAR MODEL

UNI VERSITY OF CALIFORNI A, LOS PROGRAM REVISED NOVE MBER 1 979 MANUAL REVISED 1 979

ANGELES

COPYRI GHT

UNI VERSITY OF

-

( C)

CONTROL

9 0024

-

1 979

PROGRAM CONTROL NO MORE

( BETA)

REGENTS

OF

CALIFORNI A

INFORMATI ON

LANGUAGE.

PROGRAM TER MI NATED.

1 33