Population Projections for Singapore 1980–2070 9789814345941
The detailed results of the computation of population projections for Singapore by sex and for time-intervals of five ye
160 96 630KB
English Pages 32 [37] Year 2018
Polecaj historie
![Singapore Population in Transition [Reprint 2016 ed.]
9781512807783](https://dokumen.pub/img/200x200/singapore-population-in-transition-reprint-2016nbsped-9781512807783.jpg)
Table of contents :
CONTENTS
LIST OF TABLES
I. INTRODUCTION
II. METHOD
III. ASSUMPTIONS
IV. DATA
V. COMMENTS ON RESULTS
THE AUTHOR
Citation preview
Population Projections for Singapore 1980-2070
by
Saw Swee-Hoclc.
Research Notes and Discussions Paper No. 39 INSTITUTE OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN STUDIES 1983
Pub 11 shed by lnst1tute of Southeast As1an StudieS Heng Mu1 Keng Terrace Pas1r PanJang S 1ngapore 0511 All r1ghts reserved, No part of th1s publ1cat1on may be reproduced, stored 1n a retrieval system, or transmitted 1n any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherw1se, w1thout the pr1or permiSSion of the Institute of Southeast As1an Studies, © 1983 lnst1tute of Southeast As1an Studies ISSN 0129-8828 ISBN 9971-902-68-0
CONTENTS
Page 1v
LIST OF TABLES INTRODUCTION II
METHOD
2
III
ASSUMPTIONS
4
ProJeCt1on A
4
ProJeCt1on B
5
IV
DATA
6
v
COMMENTS ON RESULTS
7
111
LIST OF TABLES
Page 1 2 3
4 5 6
Projected Total Populat1on by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projectlon A)
8
Projected Male Populat1on by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projectl on A)
12
Projected Female Populat1on by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Project10n A)
16
Projected Total Populat1on by Age Group, 1980-2070 (PrOJeCt10n B)
20
Projected Male Population by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projectlon B)
24
Projected Female Populat1on by Age Group, 1980-2070 (ProJect10n B)
28
iv
INTRODUCTION
Th1s paper presents the deta1led results of the computation of the population projectlons for S1ngapore by sex and for tlmelntervals of flve years from 1980 to 2070. Two sets of f1gures were prepared to ind1cate two plaus1ble future courses of populat1on trends, one accord1ng to replacement fert1lity from 1990 thereafter and the other according to constant 1980 They are known as Projectlon A and ProJeCtlon B, fert1l1ty. respect1vely. A brief descript1on of the methodology adopted to prepare these popu 1 at 10n proJect 1on s and a short commentary on the results of the computat1on are also presented.
1
II
METHOD
The proJections were prepared by what 1s known as the component method which consists of the separate proJect1ons of the number of males and females 1n each age of the populat1on. As a matter of conven1ence we proJect the population by time-1ntervals equal to the age-1ntervals 1nto which it has been d1v1ded. S1nce the 1980 base population has been div1ded 1nto qu1nary age groups, the prOJections are most eas1ly made for five-year 1nterval s of time wh1ch implies that at the end of the f1ve-year penod all the survivors of one age group would have moved into the next Each cohort of the 1980 sex-age group is h1gher age group. d1minished to account for mortal1ty w1th the passage of t1me. This step requires a set of five-year surv1Val rat1os wh1ch are deemed to represent mortality 1n each cohort dur1ng spec1f1c periods of time subsequent to 1980. A multipl1cat1on of the original number 1n each sex-age group by the relevant rat1o w1ll yield the estimated number of persons f1ve years older at a date wh1ch is f1Ve years later, namely, 1985. A repetit10n of the procedure will furnish the estimated populat10n age ten years older than those at the base date and for the ten years later. The second step 1nvolves the estimation of the future number of children born 1n each f1ve-year t1me-1nterval subsequent to the base date 1n order to f1ll 1n the vacuum in the first age group 0-4 at penods of time every f1ve years later. To beg1n w1th, it 1s essent1al to formulate a set of plausible assumptions regard1ng the future course of fert1l1ty 1n terms of the gross reproduction rates w1th their equ1valent age-specific fert1lity rates. Hav1ng worked out these rates, they are then utilized in conJunction w1th the female population 1n the relevant reproduct1ve age groups to derive the estimated number of births for the various f1ve-year penods. The number of births surviv1ng to the end of a given flve-year penod can be est1mated by multiplying the number of b1rths during the per1od w1th the appropr1ate surv1val ratio. Th1s est1mated 2
number of surv1 vors 1s used to f1ll the vacuum 1n the f1 rst age group 0-4.
3
III ASSUMPTIONS
In prepar1ng the two sets of populat1on proJeCt1ons 1t 1s necessary to make certa1n assumpt1ons regard1ng the future course of m1grat1on, mortal1ty, and fert1l1ty. The follow1ng assumpt1ons were adopted for ProJeCt1on A and ProJeCt1on B:
Projection A
M1 grat 10n It 1s assumed that the populat1on 1n S1ngapore 1s a closed populat1on not subJected to 1nternat1onal m1grat1on.
Mort a 11 ty It 1s assumed that the 1979-81 mortality level w1th a l1fe expectancy at b1 rth of 68.4 years tor the males and 74.3 years for the females w1ll 1mprove over t1me to a l1fe expectancy of 72.6 for the males by 2040 and a l1fe expectancy of 75.2 by 200~ for the females.
Fert1l1ty It 1s assumed that the gross reproduct1 on rate w1ll r1 se from 0.841 1n 1980 to 0.939 1n 1985 and to 1.025 1n 1990, after wh1ch l t w1ll rema1n constant at th1s replacement fert1l1ty level unt1l 2070. 4
Projection B
M1grat1on It 1s assumed that the populat1on 1n S1ngapore is populat1on not subjected to 1nternat1onal migration.
a closed
Mortal1ty It 1s assumed that the 1979-81 mortal1ty level w1th a l1fe expectancy at birth of 68.4 years for the males and 74.3 years for the females w1ll 1mprove over t1me to a l1fe expectancy of 72.6 for the males by 2040 and a life expectancy of 75.2 by 2005 for the females.
Fertility It 1s assumed that the gross reproduction rate will remain constant below the replacement fertility level at the 1980 rate of 0.841 throughout the whole period of projection.
5
IV
DATA
The 1980 base populat1on class1f1ed by sex and qu1nary age group up to age 85 and over 1s obta1ned from the populat10n census The f1gures are g1ven 1n Census of conducted 1n June 1980. Population 1980, Release No. 1, publ1shed by the Department of Stat1st1cs, S1ngapore. The surv1val rat1os are obta1ned from the 1979-81 Abr1dged L1fe Tables prepared by the author and publ1shed 1n "Increas1ng L1fe Expectancy 1n S1ngapore Dur1ng 1969-1981", Singapore Medica] Journal 24 (1983). The values of the surv1val rat1os, known as Px, for the var1 ous qu1 nary age groups for each of the two sexes are computed from the values of the Lx column of the Abr1dged L1fe Tables. The age-spec1flc fert1lity rates and the gross reproduct10n rates are based on populat1on data publ1shed 1n the above census report and on b1rth data publ1shed 1n the Report on the Registration of Births and Deaths for the year 1980. The female populat10n by qu1nary age group and the b1rths by s1m1lar age group of mothers are ut1l1zed to compute the age-spec1f1c fert1l1ty rate and the gross reproduct1on rates. The former rates are appl1ed to the future female populat1on 1n the reproduct 1ve ages to est 1mate the b1 rths that w1ll occur 1n every five-year per1od.
6
v COMMENTS ON RESULTS
The deta1led results of the computat10n for ProJeCtlon A and Projectlon Bare presented in Tables 1 to 6. The f1gures for Projection A g1ven 1n Table 1 show that 1f fert1l1ty measured by the gross reproduct1on rate 1ncreases from 0.841 in 1980 to 0.939 1n 1985 and then to 1.025 1n 1990 and thereafter, the populat1on of S1ngapore is expected to 1ncrease from 2,413,945 1n 1980 to 3,087,303 1n 2000 and to 3,499,822 1n 2020. It continues to 1ncrease to 3,599,540 in 2035, and after this it declines to 3,582,173 1n 2050. Thereafter 1t 1ncreases again but very slowly, reach1ng 3,604,089 1n 2070. In fact, 1n broad terms the populat1on 1s seen to rema1n constant at about 3.6 m1llion from 2025 onwards. The f1gures for PrOJeCtlOn B g1Ven 1n Table 4 reveal that a completely d1fferent path would be followed by the population in the future if the gross reproduction rate rema1ns constant at the 1980 level of 0.841. In th1s case the population is expected to grow from 2,413,945 1n 1980 to 2,945,060 1n 2000 and to the peak of 3,129,313 in 2020, after which it follows a downward trend all the way. From the peak of 3,129,313, the populat1on will decl1ne to 2,990,138 in 2035, to 2,703,184 1n 2050, and f1nally to 2,361,677 at the end of the per1od 1n 2070.
7
TABLE 1 Projected Total Popula-tion by Age Group. 1980-2070 (Projection A)
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
0-4 5-9
193,684 223,883
227,017 193,191
262,835 226,439
263,572 262,166
239,977 262,901
10-14 15-19
235,556 287,420
223,536 234,963
192,957 223, 130
226,166 192,656
261,849 225,814
20-24 25-29
296, 192 253,531
286,301 294,800
234, 168 285,100
222,510 233,344
192,210 221,828
30-34 35-39
211,040 135,767
252,230 209,611
293,481 250,687
283,943 291,819
232,397 282,335
40-44 45-49
131,475 107,245
134,324 129,062
207,550 131,993
248,486 204,334
289,402 244,923
50-54 55-59
93,136 71,384
103,749 88,090
124,995 98,508
128, 183 119,130
198,904 122,550
60-64 65-69
59,708 49,310
65,218 51,887
80,649 57,063
90,743 71,080
110,296 80,536
70-74 75-79
33,344 18,616
39,070 23,540
41,420 27,852
46,012 29,991
57,961 33,515
8,035 4,619
11,473 5,103
14,771 6,665
17,643 8,694
19, 115 10,790
2,413,945
2,573,165
2,760,263
2,940,472
3,087,303
Age Group
80-84 85 & Over
Total
8
TABLE 1 (Continued) Projected To-tal Popula-tion by Age Group. (Projection A)
Age Group
198~2070
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
0-4 5-9
222,468 239,365
223,213 221,901
239,101 222,643
251,160 238,492
248,846 250,520
10-14 15-19
262,584 261,441
239,076 262,175
221 ,633 238,704
222,374 221,288
238,204 222,027
2Q-24 25-29
225,292 191,621
260,837 224,603
261,569 260,038
238,152 260,768
220,777 237,423
30-34 35-39
220,927 231,082
190,842 219,675
223,691 189,761
258,981 222,424
259,709 257,514
4Q-44 45-49
279,998 285,483
229,170 276,207
217,855 226,069
188,188 214,904
220,560 185,637
5Q-54 55-59
238,804 190,703
278,787 229,424
270,084 268,331
221,060 260,451
210,137 213,182
6Q-64 65-69
113,935 98,476
177,934 102,055
214,603 159,899
251,626 193,486
244,853 227,539
70-74 75-79
66,140 42,545
81,357 48,917
84,692 60,545
133,254 63,329
161,880 100,101
8Q-84 85 & Over
21 ,457 12,336
27,405 13,979
31,726 17,169
39,518 20,374
41,307 25,038
3,204,657
3,307,557
3,408,113
3,499,829
3,565,254
Total
9
TABLE 1 (Continued) Projected Total Popula"tlon by Age Group. 1980-2070 (Projection A)
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-4 5-9
238,312 248,212
231,831 237,704
234,670 231,241
242, 107 234,072
238,277 241,490
10-14 15-19
250,218 237,832
247,912 249,828
237,417 247,525
230,962 237,047
233,790 230,602
20-24 25-29
221,514 220,101
237,283 220,836
249,251 236,556
246,954 248,487
236,500 246,198
30-34 35-39
236,458 258,238
219,207 235,119
219,940 217,965
235,596 218,694
247,478 234,261
40-44 45-49
255,381 217,573
256,099 251,923
233,171 252,631
216,160 230,013
216,882 213,232
50-54 55-59
181,516 202,638
212,748 175,032
246,336 205,157
247,028 237,547
224,911 238,213
60-64 65-69
200,913 222,075
190,960 182,230
164,933 173,181
193,334 149,561
223,858 175,335
70-74 75-79
191,080 122,162
187,305 144,860
154,361 142,737
147,235 118,238
127,133 112,741
65,249 27,825
79,565 39,098
94,250 49,991
92,814 60,618
76,867 64,405
3,597,297
3,599,540
3,591,313
3,586,467
3,582,173
Age Group
80-84 85 & Over
Total
10
TABLE 1 (Continued) Projected Tatal Popula"tlon by Age Group., 1980-2070 (Projection A)
Age Group
2055
2060
2065
2070
0-4 5-9
244,030 237,670
239,500 243,408
237,681 238,890
239,844 237,075
10-14 15-19
241,198 233,426
237,384 240,809
243,114 237,016
238,602 242,735
20-24 25-29
230,069 235,776
232,887 229,365
240,253 232,174
236,471 239,517
30-34 35-39
245,198 246,076
234,819 243,809
228,433 233,489
231,231 227,139
40-44 45-49
232,321 213,945
244,038 229, 175
241,790 240,733
231,555 238,516
50-54 55-59
208,502 216,886
209,200 201,062
224,092 201,735
235,394 216,096
60-64 65-69
224,486 203,017
204,387 203,587
189,475 185,359
190,110 171,835
70-74 75-79
149,066 97,329
172,602 114,144
173,086 132,166
157,589 132,537
73,262 59,300
63,232 55,604
74,175 49,827
85,887 51,956
3,591,557
3,599,012
3,603,488
3,604,089
80-84 85 & Over
Total
11
TABLE 2 Projected Male Popullftlon by Age Group. 198G-2070 (Projection A)
Age Group
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
0-4 5-9
100,847 115,770
117,283 100,595
135,787 116,990
136,167 135,448
123,978 135,827
10-14 15-19
120,857 148,236
115,585 120,482
100,454 115,319
116,826 100,273
135,258 116,616
20-24 25-29
152,832 129,407
147,465 151,884
119,916 146,639
114,915 119,400
100,012 114,524
30-34 35-39
107,368 68,882
128,578 106,488
151,094 127,678
145,994 150,172
118,875 145,103
40-44 45-49
66,497 54,756
67,987 64,968
105,221 66,532
126,363 103,243
148,775 124,278
50-54 55-59
48,322 36,989
52,478 44,997
62,343 49,098
64,084 58,602
99,774 60,502
60-64 65-69
29,795 23,737
32,942 24,858
40,133 27,747
44,115 34,121
53,000 37,820
70-74 75-79
15,429 7,857
17,356 9,728
18,313 10,993
20,774 11,847
25,925 13,698
2,891 1,288
4,369 1,288
5,521 1'749
6,353 2,316
6,964 2,836
1,231, 760
1,309,331
1,401,527
1,491,013
1,563, 765
80-84 85 & Over
Total
12
TABLE 2 (Continued) Projected Male Population by Age Group. 1980-2070 (Projection A>
Age Group
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
0-4 5-9
114,932 123,668
115,317 114,645
123,586 115,029
129,754 123,277
128,559 129,430
10-14 15-19
135,637 135,015
123,495 135,393
114,484 123,273
114,868 114,278
123,104 114,661
20-24 25-29
116,313 99,672
134,664 115,918
135,041 134,206
122,952 134,582
113,981 122,534
30-34 35-39
114,020 118,150
99,233 113,324
115,408 98,628
133,615 114,704
133,990 132,800
40-44 45-49
143,754 146,558
117,051 141,612
112,270 115,307
97,711 110,597
113,637 96,255
50-54 55-59
120,500 94,596
142,557 114,728
138,100 136,256
112,447 132,493
107,854 107,882
60-64 65-69
55,045 45,787
86,536 47,900
105,527 75,849
126,023 93, 180
123,165 112,034
70-74 75-79
29,114 17,390
35,686 19,844
37,750 24,684
60,399 26,470
74,935 42,895
8, 186 3,285
10,559 3,930
12,256 5,061
15,502 6,158
16,623 7,826
1,621,622
1,672,392
1, 722,715
1,769,010
I ,802,165
80-84 85 & Over
Total
13
TABLE 2 (Continued) Projected Male Popula"tlon by Age Group. 198G-2070 (Projection A)
Age Group
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-4 5-9
123,115 128,238
119,766 122,807
121,234 119,467
125,075 120,931
119,281 124,762
1Q-14 15-19
129,249 122,882
128,058 129,016
122,635 127,827
119,300 122,414
120,762 119,085
2Q-24 25-29
114,363 113,593
122,563 113,974
128,681 122,146
127,495 128,243
122,096 127,062
3Q-34 35-39
121,994 133,173
113,093 121,250
113,473 112,403
121,609 112,781
127,679 120,867
40-44 45-49
131,565 111,944
131,934 129,605
120, 122 129,968
111,358 118,332
111,732 109,698
5Q-54 55-59
93,868 103,475
109,168 90,057
126,391 104,736
126,745 121,260
115,397 121,599
60-64 65-69
100,773 110,171
96,656 90,141
84,122 86,459
97,834 75,247
113,269 87,513
7Q-74 75-79
90,960 53,893
90,307 66,246
74,538 66,574
72,064 55,561
62,718 53,717
8Q-84 85 & Over
26,938 8,963
33,845 13,359
41 ,602 17,820
41,808 22,432
34,892 24,251
1,819,157
1,821,845
1,820,198
1,820,489
1,816,380
Total
14
TABLE 2 {Continued) Projected Male Popula1"1on by Age Group., 1980-2070 (Projection A)
Age Group
2055
2060
0-4 5-9
126,070 118,983
123,730 125,755
122,790 123,421
123,909 122,483
10-14 15-19
124,587 120,545
118,816 124,363
125,579 118,602
123,248 125,353
20-24 25-29
118,775 121,681
120,232 118,371
124,040 119,823
118,294 123,618
30-34 35-39
126,503 126,900
121,146 125,731
117,850 120,407
119,296 117, 131
40-44 45-49
119,743 110,067
125,720 117,959
124,562 123,847
119,287 122,706
50-54 55-59
106,977 110,712
107,337 102,634
115,034 102,979
120,776 110,364
60-64 65-69
113,586 101,319
103,416 101,603
95,870 92,506
96,193 85,756
70-74 75-79
72,942 46,750
84,450 54,371
84,686 62,949
77,104 63,125
80-84 85 & Over
33,734 22,326
29,359 21,163
34,145 19,072
39,532 20,089
1,822,200
1,826,156
1,828,162
1,828,264
Total
15
2065
2070
TABLE 3 Projected F-Ie Popuhrtlon by Age Group. 198D-2070 (Projection A)
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Q-4 5-9
92,837 108,113
109,734 92,596
127,048 109,449
127,405 126,718
115,999 127,074
10-14 15-19
114,699 139,184
107,951 114,481
92,503 107,811
109,340 92,383
126,591 109,198
20-24 25-29
143,360 124,124
138,836 142,916
114,252 138,461
107,595 113,944
92,198 107,304
30-34 3~-39
103,672 66,885
123,652 103,123
142,387 123,009
137,949 141,647
113,522 137,232
40-44 45-49
64,978 52,489
66,337 64,094
102,329 65,461
122,123 101,091
140,627 120,645
50-54 55-59
44,814 34,395
51,271 43,093
62,652 49,410
64,099 60,528
99,130 62,048
60-64 65-69
29,913 25,573
32,276 27,029
40,516 29,316
46,628 36,959
57,296 42,716
70-74 75-79
17,915 10,759
21,714 13,812
23,107 16,859
25,238 18,144
32,036 19,817
5,144 3,331
7,104 3,815
9,250 4,916
11,290 6,378
12,151 7,954
1,182,185
1,263,834
1,358,736
1,449,459
1,523,538
Age Group
80-84 85 & Over
Total
16
TABLE 3 (Continued) Projected F-Ie Popula-tion by Age Group, 198~2070 (Projection A)
Age Group
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Q-4 5-9
107,536 115,697
107,896 107,256
115,515 107,614
121,406 115,215
120,287 121,090
10-14 15-19
126,947 126,426
115,581 126,782
107,149 115,431
107,506 107,010
115,100 107,366
2Q-24 25-29
108,979 91,949
126,173 108,685
126,528 125,832
115,200 126,186
106,796 114,889
30-34 35-39
106,907 112,932
91,609 106,351
108,283 91,133
125,366 107,720
125,719 124,714
40-44 45-49
136,244 138,925
112, 119 134,595
105,585 110,762
90,477 104.307
106,923 89,382
5Q-54 55-59
118,304 96, 107
136,230 114,696
131,984 132,075
108,613 127,958
102,283 105,300
60-64 65-69
58,890 52,689
91,398 54, 155
109,076 84,050
125,603 100,306
121,688 115,505
70-74 75-79
37,026 25,155
45,671 29,073
46,942 35,861
72,855 36,859
86,945 57.206
8Q-84 85 & Over
13,271 9,051
16,846 10,049
19,470 12,108
24,016 14,216
24,684 17,212
1,583,035
1,635,165
1,685,398
1,730,819
1,763,089
Total
17
TABLE 3 (Continued) Projected fe..le Popula-tion by Age Group. 198G-2070 (Projection A)
Age Group
2030
2040
2035
2045
2050
0-4 5-9
115,197 119,974
112,065 114,897
113,436 111,774
117,032 113,141
118,996 116,728
10-14 15-19
120,969 114,950
119,854 120,812
114,782 119,698
111,662 114,633
113,028 111,517
20-24 25-29
107,151 106,508
114,720 106,862
120,570 114,410
119,459 120,244
114,404 119,136
30-34 35-39
114,464 125,065
106,114 113,869
106,467 105,562
113,987 105,913
119,799 113,394
40-44 45-49
123,816 105,629
124,165 122,318
113,049 122,663
104,802 111,681
105,150 103,534
50-54 55-59
87,648 99,163
103,580 84,975
119,945 100,421
120,283 116,287
109,514 116,614
60-64 65-69
100,140 111,904
94,304 92,089
80,811 86,722
95,500 74,314
110,589 87,822
70-74 75-79
100, 120 68,269
96,998 78,614
79,823 76,163
75,171 62,677
64,415 59,024
38,311 18,862
45,720 25,739
52,648 32,171
51,006 38,186
41,975 40,154
1, 778,140
1, 777,695
1,771,115
1,765,978
1, 765,793
80-84 85 & Over
Total
18
TABLE 3 (Continued) Projected Fa..le Popula-tion by Age Group. (Projection A)
Age Group
2055
2060
1~2070
2065
2070
0-4 5-9
117.960 118,687
115,770 117,653
114,891 115,469
115,935 114,592
10-14 15-19
116,611 112,881
118,568 116,446
117,535 118,414
115,354 117,382
20-24 25-29
111,294 114,095
112,655 110,994
116,213 112,351
118,177 115,899
30-34 35-39
118,695 119, 176
113,673 118,078
110,583 113,082
111,935 110,008
40-44 45-49
112,578 103,878
118,318 111,216
117,228 116,886
112,268 115,810
50-54 55-59
101,525 106,174
101,863 98,428
109,058 98,756
114,618 105,732
60-64 65-69
110,900 101,698
100,971 101,984
93,605 92,853
93,917 86,079
70-74 75-79
76, 124 50,579
88,152 59,773
88,400 69,217
80,485 69,412
80-84 85 & Over
39,528 36,974
33,873 34,441
40,030 30,755
46,355 31,867
1, 769,357
1, 772,856
1, 775,326
1,775,825
Total
19
TABLE 4 Projected Total Popula-tion by Age Group. 1980-2070 (Projection 8)
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
0-4 5-9
193,684 223,883
214,802 193,191
225,354 214,255
215,093 224,780
195,582 214,545
10-14 15-19
235,556 287,420
223,536 234,963
192,957 223, 130
213,996 192,656
224,508 213,663
20-24 25-29
296,192 253,531
286,301 294,800
234, 168 285,100
222,510 233,344
192,210 221,828
30-34 35-39
211,040 135,767
252,230 209,611
293,481 250,687
283,943 291,819
232,397 282,335
40-44 45-49
131,475 107,245
134,324 129,062
207,550 131,993
248,486 204,334
289,402 244,923
50-54 55-59
93, 136 71,384
103,749 88,090
124,995 98,508
128,183 119,130
198,904 122,550
60-64 65-69
59,708 49,310
65,218 51,887
80,649 57,063
90,743 71,080
110,296 80,536
70-74 75-79
33,344 18,616
39,070 23,540
41,420 27,852
46,012 29,991
57,961 33,515
8,035 4,619
11,473 5, 103
14,771 6,665
17,643 8,694
19,115 10,790
2,413,945
2,560,950
2,710,598
2,842,437
2,945,060
Age Group
80-84 85 & Over
Total
20
TABLE 4 (Continued) Projected Total Popula-tion by Age Group. 198G-2070 (Projection 8)
Age Group
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Q-4 5-9
179,568 195,083
174,183 179, 110
176,319 173,739
175,706 175,869
168,178 175,258
10-14 15-19
214,286 224,158
194,848 213,952
178,893 194,545
173,529 178,615
175,657 173,259
20-24 25-29
213,169 191,621
223,640 212,517
213,458 222,955
194,096 212,804
178,202 193,501
30-34 35-39
220,927 231,082
190,842 219,675
211,653 189,761
222,050 210,454
211,940 220,792
40-44 45-49
279,998 285,483
229,170 276,207
217,855 226,069
188,188 214,904
208,711 185,637
50-54 55-59
238,804 190,703
278,787 229,424
270,084 268,331
221,060 260,451
210,137 213,182
60-64 65-69
113,935 98,476
177,934 102,055
214,603 159,899
251,626 193,486
244,853 227,539
70-74 75-79
66,140 42,545
81,357 48,917
84,692 60,545
133,254 63,329
161,880 100,101
80-84 85 & Over
21,457 12,336
27,405 13,979
31,726 17,169
39,518 20,374
41,307 25,038
3,019,771
3,074,002
3,112,296
3,129,313
3,115,172
Total
21
TABLE 4 (Continued} Projected Total Popula"tlon by Age Group,. 1980-2070 (Projection B)
Age Group
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
0-4 5-9
157,611 167,750
149,391 157,209
145,429 149,010
143,383 145,058
139,960 143,018
10-14 15-19
175,046 175,374
167,548 174,773
157,019 167,287
148,830 156,774
144,883 148,598
20-24 25-29
172,858 177,656
174,969 172,329
174,369 174,433
166,900 173,835
156,412 166,389
30-34 35-39
192,716 210,739
176,935 191,625
171,629 175,933
173,725 170,657
173,129 172,741
40-44 45-49
218,963 205,885
208,993 215,997
190,038 206, 163
174,476 187,464
169,244 172,113
50-54 55-59
181,516 202,638
201,319 175,032
211,206 194,135
201,591 203,670
183,306 194,398
60-64 6.5-69
200,913 222,07.5
190,960 182,230
164,933 173,181
182,947 149,.561
191,933 16.5,914
70-74 7.5-79
191,080 122, 162
187,305 144,860
154,361 142,737
147,235 118,238
127,133 112,741
65,249 27,825
79,565 39,098
94,250 49,991
92,814 60,618
76,867 64,405
3,068,056
2,990,138
2,896,104
2,797,776
2,703,184
80-84 8.5 & Over
Total
22
TABLE 4 (Continued) Projected Tohl Popuhrtlon by Age Group. 1980-2070 (Projection 8)
2055
2060
2065
2070
0-4 5-9
134,259 139,603
127,914 133,917
122,795 127,588
119,229 122,482
10-14 15-19
142,846 144,657
139,435 142,623
133,755 139,217
127,434 133,547
20-24 25-29
148,254 155,933
144,323 147,800
142,294 143,882
138,895 141,858
30-34 35-39
165,713 172,148
155,300 164,775
147,199 154,420
143,297 146,365
40-44 45-49
171,311 166,952
180,722 168,991
163,410 178,261
153,141 161,197
50-54 55-59
168,296 176,766
163,249 162,291
165,243 157,424
174,282 159,347
60-64 65-69
183,196 174,064
166,580 166,140
152,939 151,071
148,352 138,700
70-74 75-79
141,057 97,329
147,986 108,011
141,249 113,317
128,438 108,158
73,262 59,300
63,232 55,604
70,190 49,827
73,638 43,317
2,614,946
2,538,893
2,454,081
2,361,677
Age Group
80-84 85 & Over
Total
23
TABLE 5 Projected Male Popula1"1on by Age Group. 198G-2070 (Projection 8)
2000
1980
1985
1990
1995
0-4 5-9
100,847 115,770
110,971 100,595
116,420 110,694
111, 119 116,129
101,040 110,841
1Q-14 15-19
120,857 148,236
115,585 120,482
110,454 115,319
110,539 110,273
115,966 110,340
2Q-24 25-29
152,832 129,407
147,465 151,884
119,916 146,639
114,915 119,400
100,012 114,524
3Q-34 35-39
107,368 68,882
128,578 106,488
151,094 127,678
145,994 150,172
118,875 145,103
4Q-44 45-49
66,497 54,756
67,987 64,968
105,221 66,532
126,363 103,243
148,775 124,278
50-54 55-59
48,322 36,989
52,478 44,997
62,343 49,098
64,084 58,602
99,774 60,502
60-64 65-69
29,795 23,737
32,942 24,858
40,133 27,747
44,115 34,121
53,000 37,820
7Q-74 75-79
15,429 7,857
17,356 9,728
18,313 10,993
20,774 11,847
25,925 13,698
2,891 1,288
4,369 1,288
5,521 1, 749
6,353 2,316
6,964 2,836
1,231,760
1,303,019
1,375,864
1,440,359
1,490,273
Age Group
8G-84 85 & Over
Total
24
Projected Male
TABLE 5 (Continued) by Age Group. 198G-2070
Popula~lon
(Projection 8)
Age Group
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Q-4 5-9
92,766 100,787
89,984 92,534
91,088 89,759
90,773 90,860
86,876 90,546
10-14 15-19
110,686 115,757
100,646 110,487
92,404 100,465
89,633 92,238
90,733 89,472
20-24 25-29
110,053 99,672
115,456 109,679
110,200 115,063
100,204 109,825
91,998 99,863
30-34 35-39
114,020 118,150
99,233 113,324
109,196 98,628
114,557 108,530
109,342 113,858
40-44 45-49
143,754 146,558
117,051 141,612
112,270 115,307
97.711 110,597
107.521 96,255
50-54 55-59
120,500 94,596
142,557 114,728
138,100 136,256
112,447 132,493
107,854 107,882
60-64 65-69
55,045 45,787
86,536 47,900
105,527 75,849
126,023 93,180
123,165 112,034
70-74 75-79
29,114 17,390
35,686 19,844
37,750 24,684
60,399 26,470
74,935 42,895
8,186 3,285
10,559 3,930
12,256 5,061
15,502 6,158
16,623 7,826
1,526,106
1,551, 746
1,569,863
1,577,600
1,569,678
80-84 85 & Over
Total
25
TABLE 5 (Continued) Projected Male Popula-tion by Age Group. 198G-2070 (Projection 8)
Age Group
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Q-4 5-9
81,424 86,659
77,177 81,220
75,132 76,984
74,074 74,944
72,306 73,889
10-14 15-19
90,419 90,560
86,538 90,256
81,106 86,382
76,876 80,960
74,839 76,738
20-24 25-29
89,239 91,685
90,325 88,936
90,021 90,018
86,157 89,715
80,750 85,864
30-34 35-39
99,424 108,675
91,282 98,818
88,545 90,725
89,622 88,005
89,320 89,075
4Q-44 45-49
112,799 105,919
107,664 111, 118
97,899 106,060
89,881 96,440
87,187 88,542
50-54 55-59
93,868 103,475
103,292 90,057
108,362 99,098
103,430 103,963
94,048 99,231
6Q-64 65-69
100,773 110,171
96,656 90,141
84,122 86,459
92,567 75,247
97,112 82,801
70-74 75-79
90,960 53,893
90,307 66,246
74,538 66,574
72,064 55,561
62,718 53,717
8Q-84 85 & Over
26,938 8,963
33,845 13,359
41,602 17,820
41,808 22,432
34,892 24,251
1, 545,844
1,507,237
1,461,447
1,413,746
1,367,280
Total
26
TABLE 5 (Continued) Projected Male Popula1"1on by Age Group, 1980-2070 (Projection B)
Age Group
2055
2060
2065
2070
0-4 5-9
69,361 72,125
66,081 69, 188
63,437 65,916
61,595 63,278
10-14 15-19
73,786 74,704
72,024 73,653
69,091 71,894
65,824 68,967
20-24 25-29
76,538 80,475
74,510 76,278
73,462 74,257
71,707 73,212
30-34 35-39
85,486 88,775
80, 121 84,965
75,942 79,632
73,930 75,479
40-44 45-49
88,247 85,888
97,949 86,932
84,175 96,490
78,891 82,921
50-54 55-59
86,346 90,230
83,758 82,840
84,776 80,357
94,097 81,334
60-64 65-69
92,692 86,867
84,284 82,913
77,381 75,392
75,061 69,217
70-74 75-79
69,015 46,750
72,404 51,444
69,108 53,970
62,839 51,513
80-84 85 & Over
33,734 22,326
29,359 21,163
32,307 19,072
33,893 19,396
1, 323,345
1,289,866
1,246,659
1, 203, 154
Total
27
TABLE 6 Projected Fa.le Popula-tion by Age Group. 1980-2070 (Projection B)
Age Group
1980
1985
1990
1995
0-4 5-9
92,837 108,113
103,831 92,596
108,934 103,561
103,974 108,651
94,542 103,704
10-14 15-19
114,699 139, 184
107,951 114,481
92,503 107,811
103,457 92,383
108,542 103,323
20-24 25-29
143,360 124, 124
138,836 142,916
114,252 138,461
107,595 113,944
92,198 107,304
30-34 35-39
103,672 66,885
123,652 103, 123
142,387 123,009
137,949 141,647
113,522 137,232
40-44 45-49
64,978 52,489
66,337 64,094
102,329 65,461
122,123 101,091
140,627 120,645
50-54 55-59
44,814 34,395
51,271 43,093
62,652 49,410
64,099 60,528
99, 130 62,048
60-64 65-69
29,913 25,573
32,276 27,029
40,516 29,316
46,628 36,959
57,296 42,716
70-74 75-79
17,915 10,759
21,714 13,812
23, 107 16,859
25,238 18, 144
32,036 19,817
5, 144 3,331
7,104 3,815
9,250 4,916
11,290 6,378
12, 151 7, 954
1, 182,185
1,257,931
1,334, 734
1,402,078
1,454, 787
80-84 85 & Over
Total
28
2000
TABLE 6