Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems [1 ed.] 9781617284137, 9781606929841

Citation preview

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved. Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved. Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Space Science, Exploration and Policies Series

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES: WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS

No part of this digital document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means. The publisher has taken reasonable care in the preparation of this digital document, but makes no expressed or implied warranty of any kind and assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. No liability is assumed for incidental or consequential damages in connection with or arising out of information Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. contained herein. This digital document is sold with the clear understanding that the publisher is not engaged in

SPACE SCIENCE, EXPLORATION AND POLICIES SERIES Progress in Dark Matter Research J. Val Blain (Editor) 2005. ISBN 1-59454-248-1 Space Science: New Research Nick S. Maravell (Editor) 2006. ISBN 1-60021-005-8 Space Policy and Exploration William N. Callmers (Editor) 2008. ISBN 978-1-60456-448-8

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Space Commercialization and the Development of Space Law from a Chinese Legal Perspective Yun Zhao 2009. ISBN 978-1-60692-244-6 Next Generation of Human Space Flight Systems Alfred T. Chesley (Editor) 2009. ISBN 978-1-60692-726-7 Smaller Satellites Operations Near Geostationary Orbit Matthew T. Erdner 2009. ISBN 978-1-60741-181-9 Environmental Satellites: Weather and Environmental Information Systems Vincent L. Webber (Editor) 2009. ISBN 978-1-60692-984-1

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Space Science, Exploration and Policies Series

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES: WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS

VINCENT L. WEBBER EDITOR

Nova Science Publishers, Inc. New York

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009 by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means: electronic, electrostatic, magnetic, tape, mechanical photocopying, recording or otherwise without the written permission of the Publisher. For permission to use material from this book please contact us: Telephone 631-231-7269; Fax 631-231-8175 Web Site: http://www.novapublishers.com

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

NOTICE TO THE READER The Publisher has taken reasonable care in the preparation of this book, but makes no expressed or implied warranty of any kind and assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. No liability is assumed for incidental or consequential damages in connection with or arising out of information contained in this book. The Publisher shall not be liable for any special, consequential, or exemplary damages resulting, in whole or in part, from the readers’ use of, or reliance upon, this material. Independent verification should be sought for any data, advice or recommendations contained in this book. In addition, no responsibility is assumed by the publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or property arising from any methods, products, instructions, ideas or otherwise contained in this publication. This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information with regard to the subject matter covered herein. It is sold with the clear understanding that the Publisher is not engaged in rendering legal or any other professional services. If legal or any other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent person should be sought. FROM A DECLARATION OF PARTICIPANTS JOINTLY ADOPTED BY A COMMITTEE OF THE AMERICAN BAR ASSOCIATION AND A COMMITTEE OF PUBLISHERS. LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA ISBN: H%RRN Available upon request

Published by Nova Science Publishers, Inc.    New York

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

CONTENTS Preface Chapter 1

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Chapter 2

Chapter 3

vii Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites: Restructuring Is under Way, but Technical Challenges and Risks Remain United States Government Accountability Office Environmental Satellites: Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on Whether and How to Ensure Climate Data Continuity United States Government Accountability Office Written Statement by Vice Admiral Conrad Lautenbacher, Jr. (U.S. Navy, Ret.) Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and NOAA Administrator National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce

Index

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

1

61

95 107

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved. Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

PREFACE This book provides information on the planned National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program which is expected to be a state-of-the-art, environment-monitoring satellite system which will replace two existing polar-orbiting environmental satellite systems. The NPOESS program is considered critical to the United States' ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting (including severe weather events such as hurricanes) and global climate monitoring through the year 2026. Furthermore, this book evaluates the NPOESS program office's progress in restructuring the acquisition, evaluates their progress in establishing an effective management structure, and assesses the reliability of the life cycle cost estimate and proposed schedule. This book also identifies the status and key risks facing the program's major segments and evaluates the adequacy of the program's efforts to mitigate these risks.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved. Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

In: Environmental Satellites Editor: Vincent L. Webber., pp. 1-60

ISBN 978-1-60692-984-1 © 2009 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

Chapter 1

POLAR-ORBITING OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES: RESTRUCTURING IS UNDER WAY, BUT TECHNICAL CHALLENGES ∗ AND RISKS REMAIN

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

United States Government Accountability Office WHAT GAO FOUND The NPOESS program office has made progress in restructuring the acquisition by establishing and implementing interim program plans guiding the contractors’ work activities in 2006 and 2007; however, important tasks leading up to finalizing contract changes remain to be completed. Executive approvals of key acquisition documents are about 6 months late—due in part to the complexity of navigating three agencies’ approval processes. Delays in finalizing these documents could hinder plans to complete contract negotiations by July 2007 and could keep the program from moving forward in fiscal year 2008 with a new program baseline. The program office has also made progress in establishing an effective management structure by adopting a new organizational framework with ∗

This is an edited, reformatted and augmented version of a United States Government Accountability Office Report 07-498 to Congressional Requesters publication, dated April 2007.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

2

United States Government Accountability Office

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

increased oversight from program executives and by instituting more frequent and rigorous program reviews; however, plans to reassign the recently appointed Program Executive Officer will likely increase the program’s risks. Additionally, the program lacks a process and plan for identifying and filling staffing shortages, which has led to delays in key activities such as cost estimating and contract revisions. Until this process is in place the NPOESS program faces increased risk of further delays. The methodology supporting a June 2006 independent cost estimate with the expectation of initial satellite launch in January 2013 was reliable, but recent events could increase program costs and delay schedules. Specifically, the program continues to experience technical problems on key sensors and program costs will likely be adjusted during upcoming negotiations on contract changes. A new baseline cost and schedule reflecting these factors is expected by July 2007. Development and testing of major NPOESS segments—including key sensors and ground systems—are under way, but significant risks remain. For example, while work continues on key sensors, two of them experienced significant problems and are considered high risk (see table). Additionally, while progress has been made in reducing delays in the data processing system, work remains in refining the algorithms needed to translate sensor observations into useable weather products. Given the tight time frames for completing this work, it will be important for program officials and executives to continue to provide close oversight of milestones and risks.

Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS Integrated Program Office data.

ABBREVIATIONS ATMS CMIS CrIS

advanced technology microwave sounder conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder cross-track infrared sounder

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites DMSP DOD EDR IDPS NASA NESDIS NOAA NPOESS NPP POES OMPS VIIRS

3

Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Department of Defense environmental data record interface data processing system National Aeronautics and Space Administration National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System NPOESS Preparatory Project Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites ozone mapper/profiler suite visible/infrared imager radiometer suite

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

April 27, 2007 The Honorable Nick Lampson Chairman The Honorable Bob Inglis Ranking Republican Member Subcommittee on Energy and Environment Committee on Science and Technology House of Representatives The Honorable David Wu House of Representatives The Honorable Vernon J. Ehlers House of Representatives The planned National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program is expected to be a state-of-the-art, environmentmonitoring satellite system that will replace two existing polar-orbiting environmental satellite systems. Polar-orbiting satellites provide data and imagery that are used by weather forecasters, climatologists, and the military to map and monitor changes in weather, climate, the oceans, and the environment. The NPOESS program is considered critical to the United States’ ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting (including severe weather events such as hurricanes) and global climate monitoring through the year 2026. Three agencies share responsibility for the NPOESS acquisition: the Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Department of Defense (DOD)/United States Air Force, and the

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

4

United States Government Accountability Office

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). To manage the NPOESS program, these agencies established a triagency integrated program office. In recent years, this program has experienced escalating costs, schedule delays, and technical difficulties, leading to a June 2006 decision to restructure the program. This decision decreased the complexity of the program by reducing the number of satellites and sensors, increased the estimated cost of the program to $12.5 billion, and delayed the launches of the first two satellites by 3 to 5 years. This report responds to your request that we (1) evaluate the NPOESS program office’s progress in restructuring the acquisition, (2) evaluate the program office’s progress in establishing an effective management structure, (3) assess the reliability of the life cycle cost estimate and proposed schedule, and (4) identify the status and key risks facing the program’s major segments and evaluate the adequacy of the program’s efforts to mitigate these risks. To evaluate the program office’s progress in restructuring the acquisition, we assessed program documentation, attended management status briefings, and interviewed program officials. To determine progress in establishing a new management structure, we assessed the status of efforts to implement past recommendations regarding the management structure and staffing, attended senior-level management review meetings, reviewed program documents, and interviewed program officials. To assess the cost estimate, we evaluated the methodology and assumptions used to develop the estimate and interviewed program officials to identify any assumptions that may have changed. To determine the status, risk, and risk mitigation efforts for the program, we analyzed monthly program management documents and interviewed NOAA, NASA, and DOD officials to determine concerns with these mitigation efforts. In addition, this report builds on other work we have done on environmental satellite programs over the last several years [1] We conducted our work at the NPOESS Integrated Program Office headquarters and at DOD, NOAA, and NASA facilities in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area. We performed our work from July 2006 to April 2007 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards. Appendix I contains additional details on our objectives, scope, and methodology.

RESULTS IN BRIEF The NPOESS program office has made progress in restructuring the acquisition by establishing and implementing interim program plans guiding the

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

5

contractors’ work activities in 2006 and 2007; however, important tasks leading up to finalizing contract changes remain to be completed. While the program office developed key acquisition documents, including a memorandum of agreement on the roles and responsibilities of the three agencies, a revised acquisition strategy, and a system engineering plan, the responsible executives in the three agencies have not yet approved these documents—even though they were due by September 1, 2006. Finalizing these documents is essential to ensure interagency agreement and will allow the program office to move forward in completing other activities related to restructuring the program. These activities include conducting an integrated baseline review with the contractor to reach agreement on the schedule and work activities and finalizing changes to the NPOESS development and production contract— thereby allowing the program office to lock down a new acquisition baseline cost and schedule. Until the key acquisition documents are approved by the appropriate executives in each agency, the program faces increased risk that restructuring activities will not be completed in time to allow it to move forward in fiscal year 2008 with a new program baseline in place. This places the NPOESS program at risk of continued delays and future cost increases. The program office has also made progress in establishing an effective management structure by adopting a new organizational framework with increased oversight from program executives and by instituting more frequent and rigorous program management reviews; however, planned changes in executive management will likely increase program risk, and the program lacks a process and plan for identifying and filling staffing shortages. As a result, the program experienced delays in beginning key activities such as cost estimating and contract revisions. Until this process is in place and working, the NPOESS program faces increased risk of further delays. The methodology supporting a June 2006 cost and schedule estimate was reliable, but recent events could lead to increased program costs and delay schedules. DOD’s independent cost estimating group used an acceptable methodology in developing a June 2006 cost estimate of $11.5 billion for the acquisition portion of the restructured program with the expectation of initial satellite launch in January 2013. Consistent with DOD direction, this estimate did not include roughly $1 billion in operations and support costs—bringing the total life cycle cost estimate to $12.5 billion. However, the program continues to experience technical problems on key sensors, and program costs will likely be adjusted during upcoming negotiations on contract changes. The NPOESS program office is developing its own cost estimate to further refine the one developed in June 2006 to help it negotiate contract changes. A new baseline cost

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

6

United States Government Accountability Office

and schedule will be established once the contract is finalized—an event that the Program Director expects to occur by July 2007. Development and testing of major program segments—including key sensors and the ground systems—are under way, but significant risks remain. For example, work continues on key sensors, but two sensors— the Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite and the Cross-track Infrared Sounder—continue to experience significant difficulties. Specifically, the former encountered three significant problems with image quality and reliability during environmental testing of the engineering unit, and the latter suffered a major structural failure during vibration testing. Additionally, while significant progress has been made in reducing delays in the NPOESS data processing system, much work remains in refining the algorithms needed to translate sensor observations into usable weather products. Given the tight time frames for completing key sensors, integrating them with the demonstration spacecraft (called the NPOESS Preparatory Project or NPP) and getting the ground-based data processing systems developed, tested, and deployed, it will be important for the Integrated Program Office, the Program Executive Office, and the Executive Committee to continue to provide close oversight of milestones and risks. We are making recommendations to the Secretaries of Commerce and Defense and to the Administrator of NASA to ensure that the appropriate executives finalize key acquisition documents by the end of April 2007 in order to allow the restructuring of the program to proceed. We are also making recommendations to the Secretary of Defense to direct the Air Force to delay reassigning the recently appointed Program Executive Officer until key program risks are resolved. We are also making recommendations to the Secretary of Commerce to ensure that NPOESS program authorities develop and implement a written process for identifying and addressing human capital needs and that they establish a plan to immediately fill needed positions. The Department of Commerce, DOD, and NASA provided written comments on our draft report (see apps. III, IV, and V). All three agencies agreed that it was important to finalize key acquisition documents in a timely manner, and DOD proposed extending the due dates for the documents to July 2, 2007. In addition, the Department of Commerce concurred with our recommendation to identify and address human capital needs and immediately fill open positions in the NPOESS program office. Commerce noted that NOAA was taking actions in both areas. However, DOD did not concur with our recommendation to delay reassigning the Program Executive Officer, noting that the Program Director responsible for the acquisition program would remain in place for 4 years. While it is important that the System Program Director remain in place to ensure continuity in executing the

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

7

acquisition, this position does not ensure continuity in the important oversight and coordination functions provided by the current Program Executive Officer. We remain concerned that reassigning the Program Executive at a time when NPOESS is still facing critical cost, schedule, and technical challenges will place the program at further risk. All three agencies also provided technical comments, which we have incorporated in this report as appropriate.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

BACKGROUND Since the 1960s, the United States has operated two separate operational polar-orbiting meteorological satellite systems: the Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) series—managed by NOAA, and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)—managed by the Air Force. These satellites obtain environmental data that are processed to provide graphical weather images and specialized weather products. These satellite data are also the predominant input to numerical weather prediction models, which are a primary tool for forecasting weather 3 or more days in advance—including forecasting the path and intensity of hurricanes. The weather products and models are used to predict the potential impact of severe weather so that communities and emergency managers can help prevent and mitigate their effects. Polar satellites also provide data used to monitor environmental phenomena, such as ozone depletion and drought conditions, as well as data sets that are used by researchers for a variety of studies such as climate monitoring. Unlike geostationary satellites, which maintain a fixed position relative to the earth, polar-orbiting satellites constantly circle the earth in an almost north-south orbit, providing global coverage of conditions that affect the weather and climate. Each satellite makes about 14 orbits a day. As the earth rotates beneath it, each satellite views the entire earth’s surface twice a day. Currently, there are two operational POES satellites and two operational DMSP satellites that are positioned so that they can observe the earth in early morning, midmorning, and early afternoon polar orbits. Together, they ensure that, for any region of the earth, the data provided to users are generally no more than 6 hours old. Figure 1 illustrates the current operational polar satellite configuration. Besides the four operational satellites, six older satellites are in orbit that still collect some data and are available to provide limited backup to the operational satellites should they degrade or fail.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

8

United States Government Accountability Office

Source: GAO, based on NPOESS Integrated Program Office data Figure 1. Configuration of Operational Polar Satellites.

In the future, both NOAA and the Air Force plan to continue to launch additional POES and DMSP satellites every few years, with final launches scheduled for 2009 and 2012, respectively [2]. Each of the polar satellites carries a suite of sensors designed to detect environmental data that are either reflected or emitted from the earth, the atmosphere, and space. The satellites broadcast a subset of these data in real time to properly equipped field terminals that are within a direct line of sight; these field terminals are located at universities, on battlefields, or on ships. Additionally, the polar satellites store the observed environmental data and then transmit them to NOAA and Air Force ground stations when the satellites pass overhead. The ground stations then relay the data via communications satellites to the appropriate meteorological centers for processing. Under a shared processing agreement among four satellite data processing centers—NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

9

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

(NESDIS), the Air Force Weather Agency, the Navy’s Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center, and the Naval Oceanographic Office— different centers are responsible for producing and distributing, via a shared network, different environmental data sets, specialized weather and oceanographic products, and weather prediction model outputs. Each of the four processing centers is also responsible for distributing the data to its respective users. For the DOD centers, the users include regional meteorology and oceanography centers, as well as meteorology and oceanography staff on military bases, the Naval Fleet, and mobile field sites. NESDIS forwards the data to NOAA’s National Weather Service for distribution and use by government and commercial forecasters. The processing centers also use the Internet to distribute data to the general public. NESDIS is responsible for the long-term archiving of data and derived products from POES and DMSP. Figure 2 depicts a generic data relay pattern from the polar-orbiting satellites to the data processing.

Source: GAO, based on NPOESS Integrated Program Office data. Figure 2. A Generic Data Relay Pattern for Polar Meteorological Satellite Systems.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

10

United States Government Accountability Office

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Polar Satellite Data and Products Polar satellites gather a broad range of data that are transformed into a variety of products. Satellite sensors observe different bands of radiation wavelengths, called channels, which are used for remotely determining information about the earth’s atmosphere, land surface, oceans, and the space environment. When first received, satellite data are considered raw data. To make them usable, the processing centers format the data so that they are time-sequenced and include earth location and calibration information. After formatting, these data are called raw data records. The centers further process these raw data records into channel-specific data sets, called sensor data records and temperature data records. These data records are then used to derive weather and climate products called environmental data records (EDR). EDRs include a wide range of atmospheric products detailing cloud coverage, temperature, humidity, and ozone distribution; land surface products showing snow cover, vegetation, and land use; ocean products depicting sea surface temperatures, sea ice, and wave height; and characterizations of the space environment. Combinations of these data records (raw, sensor, temperature, and environmental data records) are also used to derive more sophisticated products, including outputs from numerical weather models and assessments of climate trends. Figure 3 is a simplified depiction of the various stages of satellite data processing, and figures 4 and 5 depict examples of EDR weather products.

NPOESS Overview With the expectation that combining the POES and DMSP programs would reduce duplication and result in sizable cost savings, a May 1994 Presidential Decision Directive required NOAA and DOD to converge the two satellite programs into a single satellite program capable of satisfying both civilian and military requirements [3]. The converged program, NPOESS, is considered critical to the United States’ ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting and global climate monitoring through the year 2026. To manage this program, DOD, NOAA, and NASA formed the tri-agency Integrated Program Office, located within NOAA.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Source: GAO analysis of NOAA information. Figure 3. Satellite Data Processing Steps.

12

United States Government Accountability Office

Source: NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Figure 4. Analysis of Ozone Concentration from POES Satellite Data.

Source: NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service. Figure 5. POES Image of Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

13

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Within the program office, each agency has the lead on certain activities: NOAA has overalll program management responsibility for the converged system and for satellite operations; DOD has the lead on the acquisition; and NASA has primary responsibility for facilitating the development and incorporation of new technologies into the converged system. NOAA and DOD share the costs of funding NPOESS, while NASA funds specific technology projects and studies. Figure 6 depicts the organizations that make up the NPOESS program office and lists their responsibilities The NPOESS program office is overseen by an Executive Committee, which is made up of the Administrators of NOAA and NASA and the Undersecretary of the Air Force.

Source: GAO, based on NPOESS Integrated Program Office data. Figure 6. Organizations Coordinated by the NPOESS Integrated Program Office.

NPOESS Acquisition Strategy NPOESS is a major system acquisition that was originally estimated to cost about $6.5 billion over the 24-year life of the program from its inception in 1995 through 2018. The program is to provide satellite development, satellite launch and operation, and ground-based satellite data processing. These deliverables are grouped into four main categories:

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

14

United States Government Accountability Office

(1) the space segment, which includes the satellites and sensors; (2) the integrated data processing segment, which is the system for transforming raw data into EDRs and is to be located at the four processing centers; (3) the command, control, and communications segment, which includes the equipment and services needed to support satellite operations; and (4) the launch segment, which includes the launch vehicle services. When the NPOESS engineering, manufacturing, and development contract was awarded in August 2002, the cost estimate was adjusted to $7 billion. Acquisition plans called for the procurement and launch of six satellites over the life of the program, as well as the integration of 13 instruments—consisting of 10 environmental sensors and three subsystems. Together, the sensors were to receive and transmit data on atmospheric, cloud cover, environmental, climatic, oceanographic, and solar-geophysical observations. The subsystems were to support nonenvironmental search and rescue efforts, sensor survivability, and environmental data collection activities. The program office considered 4 of the sensors to be critical because they provide data for key weather products; these sensors are in bold in table 1, which describes each of the expected NPOESS instruments. In addition, NPP was planned as a demonstration satellite to be launched several years before the first NPOESS satellite in order to reduce the risk associated with launching new sensor technologies and to ensure continuity of climate data with NASA’s Earth Observing System satellites NPP is to host three of the four critical NPOESS sensors (VIIRS, CrIS, and ATMS), as well as one other noncritical sensor (OMPS). NPP is to provide the program office and the processing centers an early opportunity to work with the sensors, ground control, and data processing systems. When the NPOESS development contract was awarded, the schedule for launching the satellites was driven by a requirement that the satellites be available to back up the final POES and DMSP satellites should anything go wrong during the planned launches of these satellites. In general, satellite experts anticipate that roughly 1 out of every 10 satellites will fail either during launch or during early operations after launch. Early program milestones included (1) launching NPP by May 2006, (2) having the first NPOESS satellite available to back up the final POES satellite launch in March 2008, and (3) having the second NPOESS satellite available to back up the final DMSP satellite launch in October 2009. If the NPOESS satellites were not needed to back up the final predecessor satellites, their anticipated launch dates would have been April 2009 and June 2011, respectively.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Table 1. Expected NPOESS Instruments as of August 31, 2004 (critical sensors are in bold) Instrument

Description

Advanced technology microwave sounder (ATMS) Aerosol polarimetry sensor

Measures microwave energy released and scattered by the atmosphere and is to be used with infrared sounding data from NPOESS’s cross-track infrared sounder to produce daily global atmospheric temperature, humidity, and pressure profiles. Retrieves specific measurements of clouds and aerosols (liquid droplets or solid particles suspended in the atmosphere, such as sea spray, smog, and smoke). Collects microwave images and data needed to measure rain rate, ocean surface wind speed and direction, amount of water in the clouds, and soil moisture, as well as temperature and humidity at different atmospheric levels. Collects measurements of the earth’s radiation to determine the vertical distribution of temperature, moisture, and pressure in the atmosphere. Collects environmental data from platforms around the world and delivers them to users worldwide.

Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder (CMIS) Cross-track infrared sounder (CrIS) Data collection system Earth radiation budget sensor

Measures solar short-wave radiation and long-wave radiation released by the earth back into space on a worldwide scale to enhance long-term climate studies.

Ozone mapper/profiler suite (OMPS) Radar altimeter

Collects data needed to measure the amount and distribution of ozone in the earth’s atmosphere.

Search and rescue satellite aided tracking system Space environmental sensor suite Survivability sensor Total solar irradiance sensor Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite (VIIRS)

Measures variances in sea surface height/topography and ocean surface roughness, which are used to determine sea surface height, significant wave height, and ocean surface wind speed and to provide critical inputs to ocean forecasting and climate prediction models. Detects and locates aviators, mariners, and land-based users in distress. Collects data to identify, reduce, and predict the effects of space weather on technological systems, including satellites and radio links. Monitors for attacks on the satellite and notifies other instruments in case of an attack. Monitors and captures total and spectral solar irradiance data. Collects images and radiometric data used to provide information on the earth’s clouds, atmosphere, ocean, and land surfaces.

Source: GAO, based on NPOESS Integrated Program Office data.

16

United States Government Accountability Office

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

NPOESS Experienced Cost Increases, Schedule Delays, and Technical Problems over Several Years Over the last few years, NPOESS has experienced continued cost increases and schedule delays, requiring difficult decisions to be made about the program’s direction and capabilities. In 2003, we reported that changes in the NPOESS funding stream caused a delay in the program’s schedule [4]. Specifically, in late 2002, DOD shifted the expected launch date for its final DMSP satellite from 2009 to 2010. As a result, the department reduced funding for NPOESS by about $65 million between fiscal years 2004 and 2007. According to program officials, because NOAA was required to provide the same level of funding that DOD provides, this change triggered a corresponding reduction in funding by NOAA for those years. As a result of the reduced funding, program officials were forced to make difficult decisions about what to focus on first. The program office decided to keep NPP as close to its original schedule as possible because of its importance to the eventual NPOESS development and to shift some of the program’s deliverables to later years. This shift affected the NPOESS deployment schedule. To plan for this shift, the program office developed a new program cost and schedule baseline. After this new baseline was completed in 2004, we reported that the program office increased the NPOESS cost estimate from about $7 billion to $8.1 billion; delayed key milestones, including the planned launch of the first NPOESS satellite—which was delayed by 7 months; and extended the life of the program from 2018 to 2020 [5]. The cost increases reflected changes to the NPOESS contract, as well as increased program management funds. According to the program office, contract changes included extension of the development schedule, increased sensor costs, and additional funds needed for mitigating risks. Increased program management funds were added for noncontract costs and management reserves. At that time, we also noted that other factors could further affect the revised cost and schedule estimates. Specifically, the contractor was not meeting expected cost and schedule targets on the new baseline because of technical issues in the development of key sensors, including the critical VIIRS sensor. Based on its performance through May 2004, we estimated that the contractor would most likely overrun its contract at completion in September 2011 by $500 million— thereby increasing the projected life cycle cost to $8.6 billion. In addition, we reported that risks associated with the development of the critical sensors, integrated data processing system, and algorithms, among other things, could contribute to further cost increases and schedule slips—and we noted that

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

17

continued oversight was critical. The program office’s baseline cost estimate was subsequently adjusted to $8.4 billion. In mid-November 2005, we reported that NPOESS continued to experience problems in the development of a key sensor, resulting in schedule delays and anticipated cost increases [6] At that time, we projected that the program’s cost estimate had grown to about $10 billion based on contractor cost and schedule data. We reported that the program’s issues were due, in part, to problems at multiple levels of management— including subcontractor, contractor, program office, and executive leadership. Recognizing that the budget for the program was no longer executable, the NPOESS Executive Committee planned to make a decision in December 2005 on the future direction of the program—what would be delivered, at what cost, and by when. This involved deciding among options involving increased costs, delayed schedules, and reduced functionality. We noted that continued oversight, strong leadership, and timely decision making were more critical than ever and we urged the committee to make a decision quickly so that the program could proceed. However, we subsequently reported that, in late November 2005, NPOESS cost growth exceeded a legislatively mandated threshold that requires DOD to certify the program to Congress [7] This placed any decision about the future direction of the program on hold until the certification took place in June 2006. In the meantime, the program office implemented an interim program plan for fiscal year 2006 to continue work on key sensors and other program elements using fiscal year 2006 funding.

Nunn-McCurdy Process Led to a Decision to Restructure the NPOESS Program The Nunn-McCurdy law [8] requires DOD to take specific actions when a major defense acquisition program exceeds certain cost thresholds. In November 2005, key provisions of the act required the Secretary of Defense to notify Congress when a major defense acquisition was expected to overrun its project baseline by 15 percent or more and to certify the program to Congress when it was expected to overrun its baseline by 25 percent or more [9]. At that time, NPOESS exceeded the 25 percent threshold, and DOD was required to certify the program. Certifying a program entailed providing a determination that (1) the program is essential to national security, (2) there are no alternatives to the program that will provide equal or greater military capability at less cost, (3) the new estimates of the program’s cost are reasonable, and (4) the management

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

18

United States Government Accountability Office

structure for the program is adequate to manage and control costs. DOD established tri-agency teams—made up of DOD, NOAA, and NASA experts—to work on each of the four elements of the certification process. In June 2006, DOD (with the agreement of both of its partner agencies) certified a restructured NPOESS program, estimated to cost $12.5 billion through 2026. This decision approved a cost increase of $4 billion over the prior approved baseline cost and delayed the launch of NPP and the first two satellites by roughly 3 to 5 years. The new program also entailed establishing a stronger program management structure, reducing the number of satellites to be produced and launched from 6 to 4, and reducing the number of instruments on the satellites from 13 to 9— consisting of 7 environmental sensors and 2 subsystems. It also entailed using NPOESS satellites in the early morning and afternoon orbits and relying on European satellites for midmorning orbit data [10]. Table 2 summarizes the major program changes made under the Nunn-McCurdy certification decision. The Nunn-McCurdy certification decision established new milestones for the delivery of key program elements, including launching NPP by January 2010, [11] launching the first NPOESS satellite (called C1) by January 2013, and launching the second NPOESS satellite (called C2) by January 2016. These revised milestones deviated from prior plans to have the first NPOESS satellite available to back up the final POES satellite should anything go wrong during that launch. Delaying the launch of the first NPOESS satellite means that if the final POES satellite fails on launch, satellite data users would need to rely on the existing constellation of environmental satellites until NPP data becomes available—almost 2 years later. Although NPP was not intended to be an operational asset, NASA agreed to move NPP to a different orbit so that its data would be available in the event of a premature failure of the final POES satellite. However, NPP will not provide all of the operational capability planned for the NPOESS spacecraft. If the health of the existing constellation of satellites diminishes—or if NPP data is not available, timely, and reliable—then there could be a gap in environmental satellite data. Table 3 summarizes changes in key program milestones over time. In order to reduce program complexity, the Nunn-McCurdy certification decision decreased the number of NPOESS sensors from 13 to 9 and reduced the functionality of 4 sensors. Specifically, of the 13 original sensors, 5 sensors remain unchanged, 3 were replaced with less capable sensors, 1 was modified to provide less functionality, and 4 were cancelled. Table 4 shows the changes to NPOESS sensors, including the 4 identified in bold as critical sensors.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Table 2. Summary of Changes to the NPOESS Program Key area

Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision

Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision

Life cycle range

1995-2020

1995-2026

Estimated life cycle cost Launch schedule

$8.4 billion

$12.5 billion

NPP by October 2006 First NPOESS by November 2009

NPP by January 2010 First NPOESS by January 2013

Second NPOESS by June 2011 System Program Director reports to a tri-agency steering committee and the tri-agency Executive Committee Independent program reviews noted insufficient system engineering and cost analysis staff 6 (in addition to NPP)

Second NPOESS by January 2016 System Program Director is responsible for day-to-day program management and reports to the Program Executive Officer Program Executive Officer oversees program and reports to the tri-agency Executive Committee 4 (in addition to NPP)

3 (early morning, midmorning, and afternoon)

2 (early morning and afternoon; will rely on European satellites for midmorning orbit data) 9 instruments (7 sensors and 2 subsystems); 4 of the sensors are to provide fewer capabilities

Management structure

Number of satellites Number of orbits Number and complement of instruments Number of EDRs

13 instruments (10 sensors and 3 subsystems)

55

Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS Integrated Program Office data.

39 (6 are to be degraded products)

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Table 3. Key Program Milestones As of the August 2002 contract award March 2008

As of the February 2004 rebaselined program

NPP launch First NPOESS satellite planned for launch (C1)

May 2006 April 2009

October 2006 November 2009

Final DMSP launcha Second NPOESS satellite planned for launch (C2)

October 2009 June 2011

May 2010 June 2011

Milestones Final POES launcha

March 2008

As of the June 2006 certification decision February 2009 January 2010b

Change from 2004 rebaselined program Not applicable

January 2013

44-month delay 38-month delay

April 2012 January 2016

Not applicable 55-month delay

Source: GAO analysis, based on NPOESS Integrated Program Office data. a POES and DMSP are not part of the NPOESS program. Their launch dates are provided to indicate the increased risk of satellite data gaps between when these systems launch and when the NPOESS satellites launch. b Although the certification decision specified NPP is to launch by January 2010, NASA plans to launch it by September 2009 to reduce the possibility of a gap in climate data continuity.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Table 4. Changes to NPOESS Instruments (critical sensors are in bold) Instrument

Status of instrument after the Nunn- McCurdy description Unchanged

Change decision

Aerosol polarimetry sensor CMIS

Cancelled

CrIS

Unchanged

Sensor was cancelled, but could be reintegrated on future NPOESS satellites should another party choose to fund ita CMIS sensor was cancelled, and the program office is to procure a less complex Microwave imager/sounder for inclusion on the second, third, and fourth NPOESS satellites Sensor is to be included on NPP and on the first and third NPOESS satellites

Data collection system Earth radiation budget sensor

Unchanged

Subsystem is to be included on all four NPOESS satellites

Replaced

OMPS

Modified

Radar altimeter

Cancelled

Search and rescue satellite aided tracking system

Unchanged

Sensor was cancelled, and is to be replaced on the first NPOESS satellite (and no others) by an existing sensor with fewer capabilities called the Cloud’s and Earth’s Radiant Energy System One part of the sensor, called OMPS (nadir), is to be included on NPP and on the first and third NPOESS satellites; the remaining part, called OMPS (limb), was cancelled on the NPOESS satellites, but will be included on NPPa Sensor was cancelled, but could be reintegrated on future NPOESS satellites should another party choose to fund it Subsystem is to be included on all four NPOESS satellites

ATMS

Replaced

Sensor is to be included on NPP and on the first and third NPOESS satellites

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Table 4. (Continued) Instrument

Status of instrument after the Nunn- McCurdy description

Change decision

Space environmental sensor suite

Replaced

Survivability sensor

Cancelled

Total solar irradiance sensor VIIRS

Cancelled

Sensor is to be replaced by a less capable, less expensive, legacy sensor called the Space Environment Monitor on the first and third NPOESS satellites Subsystem contract was cancelled, but could be reintegrated on future NPOESS satellites should another party choose to fund it Sensor contract was cancelled but could be reintegrated on future NPOESS satellites should another party choose to fund it Sensor is to be included on NPP and on all four NPOESS satellites

Unchanged

Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS Integrated Program Office data. a While direct program funding for these instruments was eliminated, the instruments could be reintegrated on NPOESS satellites should other parties choose to fund them. The Nunn-McCurdy decision requires the program office to allow sufficient space on the spacecraft for these instruments and to provide the funding needed to integrate them.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Table 5. Planned Configuration of Sensors on NPP and NPOESS Satellites

Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS Integrated Program Office data.

24

United States Government Accountability Office

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

The changes in NPOESS sensors affected the number and quality of the resulting weather and environmental products, called EDRs. In selecting sensors for the restructured program, the Nunn-McCurdy process placed the highest priority on continuing current operational weather capabilities and a lower priority on obtaining selected environmental and climate measuring capabilities. As a result, the revised NPOESS system has significantly less capability for providing global climate measures than was originally planned. Specifically, the number of EDRs was decreased from 55 to 39, of which 6 are of a reduced quality. The 39 EDRs that remain include cloud base height, land surface temperature, precipitation type and rate, and sea surface winds. The 16 EDRs that were removed include cloud particle size and distribution, sea surface height, net solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, and products to depict the electric fields in the space environment. The 6 EDRs that are of a reduced quality include ozone profile, soil moisture, and multiple products depicting energy in the space environment. Given the changes in planned sensors, program officials established a planned configuration for NPP and the four satellites of the NPOESS program, called C1, C2, C3, and C4 (see table 5). Program officials acknowledged that this configuration could change if other parties decided to develop the sensors that were cancelled. However, they noted that the planned configuration of the first satellite cannot change without increasing the risk that the launch will be delayed.

Earned Value Management Techniques Provide Insight on Program Cost and Schedule To be effective, project managers need current information on a contractor’s progress in meeting contract deliverables. One method that can help project managers track this progress is earned value management. This method, used by DOD for several decades, compares the value of work accomplished during a given period with that of the work expected in that period. Differences from expectations are measured in both cost and schedule variances. Cost variances compare the earned value of the completed work with the actual cost of the work performed. For example, if a contractor completed $5 million worth of work and the work actually cost $6.7 million, there would be a – $1.7 million cost variance. Schedule variances are also measured in dollars, but they compare the earned value of the work completed with the value of work that was expected to be completed. For example, if a contractor completed $5 million worth of work at the end of the month but was budgeted to complete $10 million

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

25

worth of work, there would be a –$5 million schedule variance. Positive variances indicate that activities are costing less or are completed ahead of schedule. Negative variances indicate activities are costing more or are falling behind schedule. These cost and schedule variances can then be used in estimating the cost and time needed to complete the program.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

NPOESS ACQUISITION RESTRUCTURING IS WELL UNDER WAY, BUT KEY STEPS REMAIN TO BE COMPLETED Since the June 2006 decision to revise the scope, cost, and schedule of the NPOESS program, the program office has made progress in restructuring the satellite acquisition; however, important tasks leading up to revising and finalizing contract changes remain to be completed. Restructuring a major acquisition program like NPOESS is a process that involves identifying time critical and high priority work and keeping this work moving forward, while reassessing development priorities, interdependencies, deliverables, risks, and costs. It also involves revising important acquisition documents including the memorandum of agreement on the roles and responsibilities of the three agencies, the acquisition strategy, the system engineering plan, the test and evaluation master plan, the integrated master schedule defining what needs to happen by when, and the acquisition program baseline. The Nunn- McCurdy certification decision required the Secretaries of Defense and Commerce and the Administrator of NASA to sign a revised memorandum of agreement by August 6, 2006. It also required that the program office, Program Executive Officer, and the Executive Committee revise and approve key acquisition documents including the acquisition strategy and system engineering plan by September 1, 2006, in order to proceed with the restructuring. Once these are completed, the program office can proceed to negotiate with its prime contractor on a new program baseline defining what will be delivered, by when, and at what cost. The NPOESS program office has made progress in restructuring the acquisition. Specifically, the program office has established interim program plans guiding the contractor’s work activities in 2006 and 2007 and has made progress in implementing these plans. Specifically, the program office reported that it had completed 156 of 166 key milestones [12] during fiscal year 2006—including completing ambient and thermal vacuum testing of the VIIRS engineering unit. Of the 10 remaining milestones resulting from unanticipated problems in the development of VIIRS and CrIS, 5 have since been completed, and 5 are still

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

26

United States Government Accountability Office

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

pending. The program office plans to complete 222 milestones in fiscal year 2007— including completing performance tests on the OMPS (nadir) sensor—and notes that they are slightly ahead of plans in that they have completed 62 milestones through January 20, 2007, which is 2 more than had been planned. Figures 7 and 8 depict the program office’s progress against key milestones in fiscal year 2006 and to date in fiscal year 2007.

Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS Integrated Program Office data. Figure 7. Progress on Planned Milestones in Fiscal Year 2006, as of October 1, 2006.

The program office has also made progress in revising key acquisition documents. It revised the system engineering plan, the test and evaluation master plan, and the acquisition strategy plan, and obtained approval of these documents by the Program Executive Officer. The program office and contractor also developed an integrated master schedule for the remainder of the program— beyond fiscal year 2007. This integrated master schedule details the steps leading up to launching NPP by September 2009, launching the first NPOESS satellite in January 2013, and launching the second NPOESS satellite in January 2016. Nearterm steps include completing and testing the VIIRS, CrIS, and OMPS sensors; integrating these sensors with the NPP spacecraft and completing integration

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

27

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

testing; completing the data processing system and integrating it with the command, control, and communications segment; and performing advanced acceptance testing of the overall system of systems for NPP However, key steps remain for the acquisition restructuring to be completed.

Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS Integrated Program Office data. Figure 8. Progress on Planned Milestones in Fiscal Year 2007, as of January 20, 2007.

These steps include obtaining the approval of the Secretaries of Commerce and Defense and the Administrator of NASA on the memorandum of agreement among the three agencies, and obtaining the approval of the NPOESS Executive Committee on key acquisition documents, including the system engineering plan, the test and evaluation master plan, and the acquisition strategy. These approvals are currently over 6 months past due. Agency officials noted that the September 1, 2006, due date for the key acquisition documents was not realistic given the complexity of coordinating documents among three different agencies, but did not provide a new estimate for when these documents would be approved. Finalizing these documents is critical to ensuring interagency agreements and will allow the program office to move forward in completing other activities related to restructuring the program. These activities include conducting an

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

28

United States Government Accountability Office

integrated baseline review with the contractor to reach agreement on the schedule and work activities, and finalizing changes to the NPOESS development and production contract—thereby allowing the program office to lock down a new acquisition baseline cost and schedule. The program office expects to conduct an integrated baseline review by May 2007 and to finalize the contract changes by July 2007. Until key acquisition documents are finalized and approved, the program faces increased risk that it will not be able to complete important restructuring activities in time to move forward in fiscal year 2008 with a new program baseline in place. This places the NPOESS program at risk of continued delays and future cost increases.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE IN ESTABLISHING AN EFFECTIVE NPOESS MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE, BUT EXECUTIVE TURNOVER WILL INCREASE RISKS, AND STAFFING PROBLEMS REMAIN The NPOESS program has made progress in establishing an effective management structure, but—almost a year after this structure was endorsed during the Nunn-McCurdy certification process—the Integrated Program Office still faces staffing problems. Over the past few years, we and others have raised concerns about management problems at all levels of the NPOESS program, including subcontractor and contractor management, program office management, and executive-level management [13]. Two independent review teams also noted a shortage of skilled program staff, including budget analysts and system engineers. Since that time, the NPOESS program has made progress in establishing an effective management structure—including establishing a new organizational framework with increased oversight by program executives, instituting more frequent subcontractor, contractor, and program reviews, and effectively managing risks and performance. However, DOD’s plans for reassigning the Program Executive Officer in Summer 2007 increase the program’s risks. Additionally, the program lacks a staffing process that clearly identifies staffing needs, gaps, and plans for filling those gaps. As a result, the program office has experienced delays in getting core management activities under way and lacks the staff it needs to execute day-to-day management activities.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

29

NPOESS Program Has Made Progress in Establishing an Effective Management Structure and Increasing Oversight Activities, but Executive Turnover Will Increase Program Risks

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

.

The NPOESS program has made progress in establishing an effective management structure and increasing the frequency and intensity of its oversight activities. Over the past few years, we and others have raised concerns about management problems at all levels of management on the NPOESS program, including subcontractor and contractor management, program office management, and executive-level management. In response to recommendations made by two different independent review teams, the program office began exploring options in late 2005 and early 2006 for revising its management structure. In November 2005, the Executive Committee established and filled a Program Executive Officer position, senior to the NPOESS Program Director, to streamline decision making and to provide oversight to the program. This Program Executive Officer reports directly to the Executive Committee. Subsequently, the Program Executive Officer and the Program Director proposed a revised organizational framework that realigned division managers within the Integrated Program Office responsible for overseeing key elements of the acquisition and increased staffing in key areas. In June 2006, the Nunn-McCurdy certification decision approved this new management structure and the Integrated Program Office implemented it. Figure 9 provides an overview of the relationships among the Integrated Program Office, the Program Executive Office, and the Executive Committee, as well as key divisions within the program office. Operating under this new management structure, the program office implemented more rigorous and frequent subcontractor, contractor, and program reviews, improved visibility into risk management and mitigation activities, and institutionalized the use of earned value management techniques to monitor contractor performance. Specifically, program officials and the prime contractor now review the subcontractors’ cost and schedule performance on a weekly basis. The information from these meetings feeds into monthly government meetings with the prime contractor to review progress against milestones, issues, and risks. Further, the Program Director conducts monthly reviews with each technical division lead to review the divisions’ achievements, risks, and plans. Program officials note that these frequent reviews allow information on risks to be quickly escalated from subcontractors to contractors, to the program component level, and to the Program Director—and they allow program officials to better manage efforts to reduce risks. The program office also reported that all division leads

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

30

United States Government Accountability Office

were trained in earned value management techniques and were effectively using these techniques both to monitor subcontractor and contractor performance on a weekly basis and to identify potential problems as soon as possible.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Source: NOAA. Figure 9. Overview of New Management Structure.

In addition to these program office activities, the Program Executive Officer implemented monthly program reviews and increased the frequency of contacts with the Executive Committee. Specifically, the Program Executive Officer holds monthly program management reviews where the Program Director and program division leads (for example, those in charge of systems engineering or ground systems) provide briefings on the program’s earned value, progress, risks, and concerns. We observed that these briefings allow the Program Executive Officer to have direct insight into the challenges and workings of the Integrated Program Office and allow risks to be appropriately escalated and addressed. These meetings also provide an open forum for managers to raise concerns and ask questions about operational challenges. For example, when NASA officials expressed concerns that vibration levels used during testing were higher than necessary and were causing damage to key sensor components, the Program Director and Program Executive Officer immediately established a forum to discuss and mitigate this issue. The Program Executive Officer briefs the Executive Committee in monthly letters, apprising committee members of the

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

31

program’s status, progress, risks, and earned value and the Executive Committee now meets on a quarterly basis—whereas in the recent past, we reported that the Executive Committee had met only five times in 2 years [14]. While the NPOESS program has made progress in establishing an effective management structure, this progress is currently at risk. We recently reported that DOD space acquisitions are at increased risk due in part to frequent turnover in leadership positions, and we suggested that addressing this will require DOD to consider matching officials’ tenure with the development or delivery of a product [15]. In March 2007, NPOESS program officials stated that DOD is planning to reassign the recently appointed Program Executive Officer in Summer 2007 as part of this executive’s natural career progression. As of March 2007, the Program Executive Officer has held this position for 16 months. Given that the program is currently still being restructured, and that there are significant challenges in being able to meet critical deadlines to ensure satellite data continuity, such a move adds unnecessary risk to an already risky program.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

NPOESS Program Has Filled Key Vacancies but Lacks a Programwide Staffing Process The NPOESS program office has filled key vacancies in recent months but lacks a staffing process that identifies programwide staffing requirements and plans for filling those needed positions. Sound human capital management calls for establishing a process or plan for determining staffing requirements, identifying any gaps in staffing, and planning to fill critical staffing gaps. Program office staffing is especially important for NPOESS, given the acknowledgment by multiple independent review teams that staffing shortfalls contributed to past problems. Specifically, these review teams noted shortages in the number of system engineers needed to provide adequate oversight of subcontractor and contractor engineering activities and in the number of budget and cost analysts needed to assess contractor cost and earned value reports. To rectify this situation, the June 2006 certification decision directed the Program Director to take immediate actions to fill vacant positions at the program office with the approval of the Program Executive Officer. Since the June 2006 decision to revise NPOESS management structure, the program office has filled multiple critical positions, including a budget officer, a chief system engineer, an algorithm division chief, and a contracts director. In addition, on an ad hoc basis, individual division managers have assessed their needs and initiated plans to hire individuals for key positions. However, almost a

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

32

United States Government Accountability Office

year after the certification, the program office still lacks a programwide process for identifying and filling all needed positions. As a result, division managers often wait months for critical positions to be filled. For example, in February 2006, the NPOESS program estimated that it needed to hire up to 10 new budget analysts. As of September 2006, none of these positions had been filled. Today, program officials estimate that they only needed to fill 7 budget analyst positions, of which 2 positions have been filled, and 5 remain vacant. Additionally, even though the certification decision directed immediate action to fill critical vacancies, the program still has vacancies in 5 systems engineering positions and 10 technical manager positions. The majority of the vacancies—4 of the 5 budget positions, 4 of the 5 systems engineering positions, and 8 of the 10 technical manager positions—are to be provided by NOAA. NOAA officials noted that each of these positions is in some stage of being filled—that is, recruitment packages are being developed or reviewed, vacancies are being advertised, or candidates are being interviewed, selected, and approved. The program office attributes its staffing delays to not having the right personnel in place to facilitate this process—and did not even begin to develop a staffing process—until November 2006. Program officials noted that the triagency nature of the program adds unusual layers of complexity to the hiring and administrative functions because each agency has its own hiring and performance management rules. In November 2006, the program office brought in an administrative officer who took the lead in pulling together the division managers’ individual assessments of needed staff—currently estimated to be 25 vacant positions—and has been working with the division managers to refine this list. This new administrative officer plans to train division managers in how to assess their needs and to hire needed staff and to develop a process by which evolving needs are identified and positions are filled. However, there is as yet no date set for establishing this basic programwide staffing process. As a result of the lack of a programwide staffing process, there has been an extended delay in determining what staff are needed and in bringing those staff on board—which has resulted in delays in performing core management activities such as establishing the program office’s cost estimate and bringing in needed contracting expertise. Additionally, until a programwide staffing process is in place, the program office risks not having the staff it needs to execute day-to-day management activities.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

33

METHODOLOGY SUPPORTING THE JUNE 2006 COST AND SCHEDULE ESTIMATE WAS RELIABLE, BUT RECENT EVENTS COULD INCREASE PROGRAM COSTS

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

In June 2006, DOD certified a restructured NPOESS program that was estimated to cost $11.5 billion for the acquisition portion of the program [16] and scheduled to launch the first satellite in 2013. The Office of the Secretary of Defense’s Cost Analysis Improvement Group (cost analysis group)—the independent cost estimators charged with developing the estimate for the acquisition portion of the program—used an acceptable methodology to develop this estimate. When combined with an estimated $1 billion for operations and support after launch, this brings the program life cycle cost to $12.5 billion. Recent events, however, could further increase program costs or delay schedules. Specifically, the program continues to experience technical problems on key sensors, and costs and schedules will be adjusted during negotiations on contract changes. The NPOESS program office is developing its own cost estimate to refine the one developed in June 2006 that it will use to negotiate contract changes. A new baseline cost will be established once the contract is finalized.

Certified Program Estimates Were Developed Using an Acceptable Methodology The cost and schedule estimate for the restructured NPOESS program was developed by DOD’s cost analysis group using an acceptable methodology. Costestimating organizations throughout the federal government and industry use certain key practices—related to planning, conducting, and reporting the estimate—to ensure a sound estimate. Table 6 lists the elements of a sound cost estimating methodology. In addition, to ensure the validity of the data assumptions that go into the estimate, leading organizations use actual historical costs and seek an independent validation of critical cost drivers. DOD’s cost analysis group used an acceptable methodology in developing the NPOESS cost estimate in that they planned, conducted, and reported the estimate consistent with leading practices. The cost analysis group’s cost estimating approach was largely driven by the program’s principal “ground rule” to maintain the continuity of weather data without a gap. Specifically, the cost analysis group assessed two risks: (1) the uncertainty of the health of the current polar-satellite

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

34

United States Government Accountability Office

constellation and (2) the uncertainty of when the new satellite system could be delivered (including the time needed to evaluate new satellites once in orbit). Table 6. Elements of a Sound Cost Estimating Methodology

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Source: GAO analysis of leading practices.

The resulting analysis showed that the restructured NPOESS system could be delivered and the first satellite launched by 2013 with a high level of confidence in maintaining satellite data continuity [17]. To determine specific costs, the group used the existing work breakdown structure employed by the program office as the basis for performing its work. This work breakdown structure consists of seven major elements, including ground systems; spacecraft; sensors; assembly, integration and test; system engineering/contractor program management; government program management; and launch. The cost analysis group also took steps to ensure the validity of the data that went into the estimate. For each element, the cost analysis group visited all major contractor sites to collect program data including: • • • •

schedule (including the original, rebaselined, and current schedules, and risks affecting the current schedule); current staffing profile by month; the history of staffing used; the qualifications of people charging the program;

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

• • • • •

35

the program’s technical approaches; system diagrams; bills of materials; funding profile; and the contractor’s program legacy (a justification that the contractor has worked on similar projects in the past and that the contractor should be able to adapt that knowledge to the current work).

The cost analysis group also compared this data with contractor labor rates from the Defense Contract Management Agency and obtained NASA’s validation of the costs associated with the most significant cost driver, the VIIRS sensor. Since schedule was the primary uncertainty factor in the cost analysis, it also was the driver of overall costs. Specifically, the cost analysis group took its riskadjusted schedule durations for the major cost elements and adjusted the contractor-submitted manning profiles accordingly. They then used NPOESS historical data on labor rates and materials to calculate the cost of these elements. Consistent with DOD practice, the cost analysis group established its cost estimate at a 50 percent confidence level [18]. However, cost analysts could not provide an upper limit for potential cost growth, explaining that the program contains “failsafe” measures to use alternative technologies (such as using legacy systems) if schedules are delayed and costs increase. As a result, cost analysts reported that they have a high level of confidence that acquisition costs will not exceed $11.5 billion—but a lower level of confidence that the configuration of sensors will remain unchanged.

Recent Events Could Lead to Increased Program Costs or Delayed Schedules While the June 2006 cost estimate for the acquisition portion of the program was reasonable at the time it was made, several recent events could cause program life cycle costs to grow or schedules to be delayed. Specifically, the program continues to experience technical problems on key sensors. The CrIS sensor being developed for the NPP satellite suffered a major structural failure in October 2006. A failure review board is currently working to resolve the root causes of the failure. While program officials note that they should be able to cover costs related to investigating the problem, the full cost and schedule to fix the sensor is not yet known. Also, VIIRS development, which has been the program’s primary

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

36

United States Government Accountability Office

cost driver, is not yet complete and continues to be a high-risk development. This too, could lead to higher final program costs or delayed schedules. Program costs are also likely to be adjusted during upcoming negotiations on contract changes. The NPOESS program office is developing its own cost estimate to refine the one developed in June 2006. Program officials plan to use this revised cost estimate to negotiate contract changes. A new baseline cost will be established once the contract is finalized—an event that the Program Director expects to occur by July 2007.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

MAJOR PROGRAM SEGMENTS ARE UNDER DEVELOPMENT, BUT SIGNIFICANT RISKS REMAIN Major segments of the NPOESS program—the space segment, the ground systems segment, and the launch segment—are under development; however, significant problems have occurred and risks remain. The program office is aware of these risks and is working to mitigate them, but continued problems could affect the program’s overall cost and schedule. Given the tight time frames for completing key sensors, integrating them on the NPP spacecraft, and getting the ground-based data processing systems developed, tested, and deployed, it will be important for the NPOESS Integrated Program Office, the Program Executive Office, and the Executive Committee to continue to provide close oversight of milestones and risks.

Space Segment—Progress Made, but Key Sensors Continue to Face Major Risks The space segment includes the sensors and the spacecraft. Four sensors are of critical importance—VIIRS, CrIS, OMPS, and ATMS—because they are to be launched on the NPP satellite. Initiating work on another sensor, the Microwave imager/sounder, is also important because this new sensor—replacing the cancelled CMIS sensor—will need to be developed in time for the second NPOESS satellite launch. Over the past year, the program made progress on each of the sensors and the spacecraft. However, two sensors, VIIRS and CrIS, have experienced major problems. The status of each of the components of the space segment is described in table 7.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Table 7. Status of Selected Components of the Space Segment, as of April 2007 Space segment component VIIRS

Risk level

Status

High

VIIRS development has continued in 2006 and in early 2007. In December 2006, the contractor completed environmental tests of VIIRS’ engineering design unit (a prototype) and identified three problems.a While these problems were being studied, the program office approved the delivery of the engineering unit to the subcontractor responsible for integration and testing on NPP. In late February 2007, program officials determined that the contractor was able to mitigate all but one of the problems, and they approved the flight unit to proceed to system level integration with a goal of resolving the final problem before a technical readiness review milestone in May 2007. VIIRS flight unit is scheduled to be delivered to NPP by July 2008.

CrIS

High

Development of CrIS was put on hold in October 2006 when the flight unit designated to go on NPP experienced a major structural failure during its vibration testing. As of March 2007, a failure review board established by the contractors and the NPOESS program office identified causes for failure and has planned an approach to completing flight unit development and delivery for NPP. The review board has also initiated inspections of all sensor modules and subsystems for damage. The program office expects to restart acceptance testing in July 2007, and the CrIS flight unit is expected to be delivered to NPP by February 2008.

OMPS

Moderate

As part of the Nunn-McCurdy certification in June 2006, one element of the OMPS sensor, called OMPS (limb), was removed from the program. In February 2007, program officials agreed to reintegrate OMPS (limb) on NPP if NOAA and NASA would fund it. This funding was approved in early April 2007. OMPS is currently on schedule for delivery to NPP by May 2008; however, there are concerns that the OMPS flight unit delivery will be so late in the integration testing process that there could be an insufficient schedule margin, should a problem arise.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Table 7. (Continued) Space segment component

Risk level

Status

ATMS

Low

Microwave imager/ sounder

Not yet rated

Spacecraft

Low

The ATMS flight unit for NPP was developed by a NASA contractor and delivered to the program in October 2005. NASA integrated the flight unit on the spacecraft and is awaiting delivery of the other sensors in order to complete integration testing. A new microwave imager/sounder sensor is being planned to replace the cancelled CMIS sensor. It is planned to be ready for launch on the second NPOESS satellite. In October 2006, the program office issued a request for information seeking industry ideas for the design of the new sensor, and responses were due by the end of December 2006. The program office anticipates awarding a contract to develop the sensor by October 2008. The development of the spacecrafts for NPP and NPOESS are on track. The NPP spacecraft was completed in June 2005. Integration testing will be conducted once the NPP sensors are delivered. Early issues with the NPOESS spacecraft (including issues with antennas and a data storage unit) have been resolved; however, risks remain that could delay the completion of the spacecraft. A key risk involves delays in the delivery of the solar array, which may arrive too late to be included in some key testing. Other risks associated with the electrical power subsystem are taking longer than anticipated to resolve.

Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS Integrated Program Office data. a The three problems are (1) band-to-band co-registration, an issue in which band registration shifts with different temperatures; (2) cross-talk, which involves information from sensor cells leaking into other cells; and (3) line-spread function issues, in which the instrument’s focus changes with changes in temperature.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

39

Earned Value Data Show Problems on the Space Segment

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Earned value management tools are used accomplished with the work expected during differences are measured in cost and schedule segment experienced negative cost and schedule and January 2007 (see figure 10).

to compare the value of work a given time period, and any variances. The NPOESS space variances between January 2006

Source: GAO analysis based on contractor data. Figure 10. Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variance for the NPOESS Space Segment over a 13-Month Period.

From January 2006 to January 2007, the contractor exceeded cost targets for the space segment by $17 million—which is 4 percent of the space segment budget for that time period. Similarly, the contractor was unable to complete $14.6 million worth of work in the space segment. The main factors in the cost and schedule variances were due to underestimation of the scope of work, pulling resources from lower priority tasks to higher priority items, and unforeseen design issues on key sensors. For example, VIIRS continued to experience negative cost variance trends due to unplanned efforts, which included refurbishing and recertifying the VIIRS calibration chamber, completing the testing of the

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

40

United States Government Accountability Office

engineering design unit, and resolving a problem with the testing equipment needed to adjust VIIRS’ temperature during a key test. Unplanned efforts for CrIS that attributed to the negative cost and schedule variances included additional time required for testing and material management. The schedule variances for VIIRS and CrIS were mainly due to resources being pulled from other areas to support higher priority tasks, extended testing and testing delays, management changes and improper material handling. Further, there is a high likelihood that CrIS will continue to experience cost and schedule variances against the fiscal year 2007 interim program plan until the issues that caused its structural failure are addressed.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Program Office Is Monitoring Sensor Risks and Evaluating Options Program officials regularly track risks associated with various NPOESS components and work to mitigate them. Having identified both VIIRS and CrIS as high risk, OMPS as a moderate risk, and the other components as low risk, the program office is working closely with the contractors and subcontractors to resolve sensor problems. Program officials have identified work-arounds that will allow them to move forward in testing the VIIRS engineering unit and have approved the flight unit to proceed to a technical readiness review milestone in May 2007. Regarding CrIS, as of March 2007, a failure review board identified root causes of its structural failure, identified plans for resolving them, and initiated inspections of sensor modules and subsystems for damage. An agency official reported that there is sufficient funding in the fiscal year 2007 program office’s and contractor’s management reserve funds to allow for troubleshooting both VIIRS and CrIS problems. However, until the CrIS failure review board fully determines the amount of rework that is necessary to fix the problems, it is unknown if additional funds will be needed or if the time frame for CrIS’ delivery will be delayed. According to agency officials, CrIS is not on the program schedule’s critical path, and there is sufficient schedule margin to absorb the time it will take to conduct a thorough failure review process. Managing the risks associated with the development of VIIRS and CrIS are of particular importance because these are to be demonstrated on the NPP satellite currently scheduled for launch in September 2009. Additionally, any delay in the NPP launch date could affect the overall NPOESS program because the success of

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

41

the program depends on the lessons learned in data processing and system integration from the NPP satellite.

Ground Segment— Progress Has Been Made, but Work Remains Development of the ground segment—which includes the interface data processing system, the ground stations that are to receive satellite data, and the ground-based command, control, and communications system—is under way and on track. However, important work pertaining to developing the algorithms that translate satellite data into weather products within the integrated data processing segment remains to be completed. Table 8 describes each of the components of the ground segment and identifies the status of each. Additionally, appendix II provides an overview of satellite data processing algorithms. Table 8. Status of Ground Segment Components Ground segment component/description

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Interface Data Processing System (IDPS)

Risk level

Status

Moderate

IDPS is being developed in a series of builds. Currently, IDPS build 1.4 has been delivered for testing and recently passed two key data transfer tests. Contractors are currently working to develop IDPS build 1.5, which is expected to be the build that will be used with NPP. However, work remains in three areas: system latency, algorithm performance, and calibration and validation planning. Latency—IDPS must process volumes of data within 65 minutes to meet NPP requirements. The contractor has made progress in reducing the latency of the system’s data handling from 93 minutes to 73 minutes and is working to reduce it by 8 minutes more by resolving data management issues, increasing the number of processors, and increasing algorithm efficiency. Algorithm performance—IDPS algorithms are the mathematical functions coded into the system software that transform raw data into data products including sensor data records and environmental data records. IDPS build 1.4 contains provisional algorithms, which are being refined as the sensors complete various stages of testing. Because some sensors are delayed, full characterization of those sensors in order to refine the algorithms has also been delayed and may not be completed in time for the delivery of IDPS build 1.5 in early 2009. If this occurs, agency officials plan to improve the algorithms in build 1.5 during a planned maintenance upgrade prior to NPP launch. Calibration/validation—Calibration/validation is the process for tweaking algorithms to provide more accurate observations. The contractor has documented a detailed schedule for calibration and validation during IDPS development and is developing a postlaunch task list to drive prelaunch preparation efforts. However, much work and uncertainty continue to exist in the calibration and validation area. A program official noted that, while teams can do a lot of preparation work, including building the infrastructure to allow sensor testing and having a good understanding of the satellite, sensors, and available data for calibration, many issues need to take place after launch.

Low

NOAA is working with domestic and foreign authorities to gain approval to operate ground stations to receive satellite data. According to agency officials, the full complement of ground stations will not be in place in time for the C1 launch: however, the ground stations will be phased in by the launch of C2. To date, the program office has reached agreement with 4 of 15 ground station sites.

Low

NOAA recently completed moving its satellite command, control, and communications capabilities to a new office building. In addition, the command, control, and communications segment acceptance testing for NPP has been completed. The segment is expected to begin operation in 2008.

A ground-based system that is to process the sensors’ data so that they are usable by the data processing centers and the broader community of environmental data users. IDPS will be deployed at the four weather data processing centers.

Ground stations for receiving satellite data 15 unmanned ground stations around the world (called SafetyNet™) are to receive satellite data and send it to the four data processing centers. Command, control, and communications segment Performs the day-to-day monitoring and command of the spacecraft and sensors.

Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS Integrated Program Office data.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

42

United States Government Accountability Office

Ground Segment Cost and Schedule Are on Track; Work and Risks Remain

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Using contractor-provided data, our analysis indicates cost and schedule performance on key elements of the NPOESS ground segment were generally on track or positive against the fiscal year 2006 and 2007 interim program plans. For the IDPS component, the contractor completed slightly less work than planned and finished slightly under budget. This caused cost and schedule variances of less than 1 percent off of expectations. (see figure 11). For the command, control, and communications component, the contractor was able to outperform its planned targets by finishing under budget by $3 million (6.2 percent of the budget for this time period) and by completing $31,000 (less than 1 percent) worth of work beyond what was planned (see figure 12).

Source: GAO analysis based on contractor data. Figure 11. Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variance for the NPOESS IDPS Development over a 13-Month Period.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

43

Source: GAO analysis based on contractor data.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Figure 12. Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variance for the NPOESS Command, Control, and Communications Segment over a 13-Month Period.

Program Office Has Plans to Address IDPS Risks The NPOESS program office plans to continue to address risks facing IDPS development. Specifically, the IDPS team is working to reduce data processing delays by seeking to limit the number of data calls, improve the efficiency of the data management system, increase the efficiency of the algorithms, and increase the number of processors. The program office also developed a resource center consisting of a logical technical library, a data archive, and a set of analytical tools to coordinate, communicate, and facilitate the work of algorithm subject matter experts on algorithm development and calibration/validation preparations. Managing the risks associated with the development of the IDPS system is of particular importance because this system will be needed to process NPP data.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

44

United States Government Accountability Office

Launch Segment—NPP Launch Preparation Has Begun, while NPOESS Launch Planning Remains a Future Event Different agencies are responsible for launching NPP and NPOESS. NASA is responsible for the NPP launch and began procuring the launch vehicle for NPP in August 2006. Program officials expect to have it delivered by July 2009, less than 2 months before the scheduled NPP launch in September 2009. The NPOESS Integrated Program Office is responsible for launching the NPOESS satellites. According to program officials, the Air Force is to procure launch services for the program through DOD’s Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle contract. These services are to be procured by January 2011, 2 years before the first scheduled launch.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

CONCLUSIONS NPOESS restructuring is well under way, and the program has made progress in establishing an effective management structure. However, key steps remain in restructuring the acquisition, including completing important acquisition documents such as the system engineering plan, the acquisition program baseline, and the memorandum of agreement documenting the three agencies’ roles and responsibilities. Until these key documents are finalized, the program is unable to finalize plans for restructuring the program. Additionally, the program office continues to have difficulty filling key positions and lacks a programwide staffing process. Until the program establishes an effective and repeatable staffing process, it will have difficulties in identifying and filling its staffing needs in a timely manner. Having insufficient staff in key positions impedes the program office’s ability to conduct important management and oversight activities, including revising cost and schedule estimates, monitoring progress, and managing technical risks. The program faces even further challenges if DOD proceeds with plans to reassign the Program Executive Officer this summer. Such a move would add unnecessary risk to an already risky program. In addition, the likelihood exists that there will be further cost increases and schedule delays because of technical problems on key sensors and pending contract negotiations. Major program segments—including the space and ground segments—are making progress in their development and testing. However, two critical sensors have experienced problems and are considered high risk, and risks remain in developing and implementing the ground-based data processing system. Given the tight time frames for completing key sensors, integrating them, and

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

45

getting the ground-based data processing systems developed, tested, and deployed, continued close oversight of milestones and risks is essential to minimize potential cost increases and schedule delays.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR EXECUTIVE ACTION Because of the importance of effectively managing the NPOESS program to ensure that there are no gaps in the continuity of critical weather and environmental observations, we are making recommendations to the Secretaries of Defense and Commerce and to the Administrator of NASA to ensure that the responsible executives within their respective organizations approve key acquisition documents, including the memorandum of agreement among the three agencies, the system engineering plan, the test and evaluation master plan, and the acquisition strategy, as quickly as possible but no later than April 30, 2007. We are also recommending that the Secretary of Defense direct the Air Force to delay reassigning the recently appointed Program Executive Officer until all sensors have been delivered to the NPOESS Preparatory Program; these deliveries are currently scheduled to occur by July 2008. We are also making two additional recommendations to the Secretary of Commerce. We recommend that the Secretary direct the Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere to ensure that NPOESS program authorities develop and implement a written process for identifying and addressing human capital needs and for streamlining how the program handles the three different agencies’ administrative procedures, and establish a plan for immediately filling needed positions.

AGENCY COMMENTS AND OUR EVALUATION We received written comments on a draft of this report from the Deputy Secretary of the Department of Commerce (see app. III), the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Networks and Information Integration of the Department of Defense (see app. IV), and the Deputy Administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (see app. V). All three agencies agreed that it was important to finalize key acquisition documents in a timely manner, and DOD proposed extending the due dates for the documents to July 2, 2007. Because the NPOESS program office intends to complete contract negotiations by July 4, 2007, we

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

46

United States Government Accountability Office

remain concerned that any further delays in approving the documents could delay contract negotiations and thus increase the risk to the program. In addition, the Department of Commerce agreed with our recommendation to develop and implement a written process for identifying and addressing human capital needs and to streamline how the program handles the three different agencies’ administrative procedures. The department also agreed with our recommendation to plan to immediately fill open positions at the NPOESS program office. Commerce noted that NOAA identified the skill sets needed for the program and has implemented an accelerated hiring model and schedule to fill all NOAA positions in the NPOESS program. The department also stated that the Program Director will begin presenting the detailed staffing information at monthly program management reviews, including identifying any barriers and recommended corrective actions. Commerce also noted that NOAA has made NPOESS hiring a high priority and has documented a strategy— including milestones—to ensure that all 20 needed positions are filled by June 2007. DOD did not concur with our recommendation to delay reassigning the Program Executive Officer, noting that the NPOESS System Program Director responsible for executing the acquisition program would remain in place for 4 years. The Department of Commerce also noted that the Program Executive Officer position is planned to rotate between the Air Force and NOAA. Commerce also stated that a selection would be made prior to the departure of the current Program Executive Officer to provide an overlap period to allow for knowledge transfer and ensure continuity. However, over the last few years, we and others (including an independent review team and the Commerce Inspector General) have reported that ineffective executive-level oversight helped foster the NPOESS program’s cost and schedule overruns. We remain concerned that reassigning the Program Executive at a time when NPOESS is still facing critical cost, schedule, and technical challenges will place the program at further risk. While it is important that the System Program Director remain in place to ensure continuity in executing the acquisition, this position does not ensure continuity in the functions of the Program Executive Officer. The current Program Executive Officer is experienced in providing oversight of the progress, issues, and challenges facing NPOESS and coordinating with Executive Committee members, as well as DOD authorities responsible for executing Nunn-McCurdy requirements. Additionally, while the Program Executive Officer position is planned to rotate between agencies, the memorandum of agreement documenting this arrangement is still in draft and should be flexible enough to allow the current Program Executive Officer to remain until critical risks have been addressed.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

47

Further, while Commerce plans to allow a period of overlap between the selection of a new Program Executive Officer and the departure of the current one, time is running out. The current Program Executive Officer is expected to depart in early July 2007 and, as of mid-April 2007, a successor has not yet been named. NPOESS is an extremely complex acquisition, involving three agencies, multiple contractors, and advanced technologies There is not sufficient time to transfer knowledge and develop the sound professional working relationships that the new Program Executive Officer will need to succeed in that role. Thus, we remain convinced that given NPOESS’s current challenges, reassigning the current Program Executive Officer at this time would not be appropriate. All three agencies also provided technical comments, which we have incorporated in this report as appropriate. As agreed with your offices, unless you publicly announce the contents of this report earlier, we plan no further distribution until 30 days from the report date. At that time, we will send copies of this report to interested congressional committees, the Secretary of Commerce, the Secretary of Defense, the Administrator of NASA, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, and other interested parties. In addition, this report will be available at no charge on our Web site at http://www.gao.gov. If you have any questions on matters discussed in this report, please contact me at (202) 512-9286 or by e-mail at [email protected]. Contact points for our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found on the last page of this report. GAO staff who made major contributions to this report are listed in appendix VI.

Director, Information Technology Management Issues

APPENDIX I: OBJECTIVES, SCOPE, AND METHODOLOGY Our objectives were to (1) evaluate the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program office’s progress in restructuring the acquisition; (2) evaluate the program office’s progress in establishing an effective management structure; (3) assess the reliability of the new life cycle cost estimate and proposed schedule; and (4) identify the status and key risks facing the program’s major segments (the launch, space, data

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

48

United States Government Accountability Office

processing, and ground control segments) and evaluate the adequacy of the program’s efforts to mitigate these risks. To evaluate the NPOESS program office’s progress in restructuring the acquisition program, we reviewed the program’s Nunn-McCurdy certification decision memo and program documentation including status briefings and milestone progress reports. We also interviewed program office officials and attended conferences and senior-level management program review meetings to obtain information on the program’s acquisition restructuring. To evaluate the program office’s progress in establishing an effective management structure, we reviewed the Nunn-McCurdy decision memo for the program, as well as program documentation and briefings. We assessed the status of efforts to implement recommendations regarding the program’s management structure, including the work of the team responsible for reviewing the management structure under the Nunn- McCurdy review. We also analyzed the program office’s organizational charts and position vacancies. Finally, we interviewed officials responsible for reviewing the management structure of the program under Nunn- McCurdy, attended senior-level management review meetings to obtain information related to the program’s progress in establishing and staffing the new management structure, and interviewed program office officials responsible for human capital issues to obtain clarification on plans and goals for the new management structure. To assess the reliability of the new life cycle cost estimate and proposed schedule, we analyzed the Office of the Secretary of Defense’s Cost Analysis Improvement Group’s (cost analysis group) cost estimating methodology and the assumptions used to develop its independent cost estimate. Specifically, we assessed the cost estimating group’s methodology against 12 best practices recognized by cost-estimating organizations within the federal government and industry for the development of reliable cost estimates. These best practices are also contained in a draft version of our cost guide, which is currently being developed by GAO cost experts. We also assessed cost- and schedule- related data, including the work breakdown structure and detailed schedule risk analyses to determine the reasonableness of the cost analysis group’s assumptions. We also interviewed cost analysis group officials to obtain clarification on cost and schedule estimates and their underlying assumptions. Further, we interviewed program officials to identify any assumptions that may have changed. To identify the status and key risks facing the program’s major segments (the launch, space, data processing, and ground control segments) and to evaluate the adequacy of the program’s efforts to mitigate these risks, we reviewed the program’s Nunn-McCurdy certification decision memo and other program

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

49

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

documentation. We analyzed briefings and monthly program management documents to determine the status and risks of the key program segments. We also analyzed earned value management data obtained from the contractor to assess the contractor’s performance to cost and schedule. We reviewed cost reports and program risk management documents and interviewed program officials to determine the program segments’ risks that could negatively affect the program’s ability to maintain the current schedule and cost estimates. We also interviewed agency officials from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the NPOESS program office to determine the status and risks of the key program segments. Finally, we observed senior-level management review meetings and attended conferences to obtain information on the status of the NPOESS program. We performed our work at the NPOESS Integrated Program Office and at DOD, NASA, and NOAA offices in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area between July 2006 and April 2007 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards

APPENDIX II: OVERVIEW OF SATELLITE DATA PROCESSING ALGORITHMS AND THE CALIBRATION AND VALIDATION PROCESS Algorithms are sets of instructions, expressed mathematically, that translate satellite sensor measurements into usable information. In the NPOESS program, government contractors are responsible for algorithm development; the program office is responsible for independently validating the algorithms. Scientists develop these algorithms, which are then written as computer code to be incorporated into the interface data processing system (IDPS) operational system. The NPOESS ground system uses three primary types of algorithms: •

•

Algorithms to develop raw data records “unpack” the digital packets received by the antennas/IDPS (the ones and zeros) and sent from the satellite, associate the data with the information about the satellite’s location and, finally, translate it back into the data it was when it started at the sensor. Algorithms used to develop sensor and temperature data records allow the on-ground users to understand what the sensor saw. It translates the

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

50

United States Government Accountability Office

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

information from the sensor into a measure of the various forms of energy (e.g., brightness, temperature, radiance). Algorithms used to produce the weather products called environmental data records (EDR) are crosscutting. They combine various data records, as well as other data, in order to produce measures useful to scientists. Additionally, EDRs can be “chained”—that is, the output of one EDR algorithm will become an input into the next EDR algorithm. To illustrate, cloud detection/mask is an important “base” EDR because many EDRs, like sea surface temperature, are only calculated when clouds are not present. Figure 13 shows the flow of the data and algorithms. A corollary to algorithm development is the calibration and validation process. According to a senior algorithm scientist, in this process, once the satellite has been launched, scientists verify that the sensors accurately report what ground conditions are. For example, one EDR from the visible/infrared imager radiometer suite (VIIRS) is “ocean color.” Once the sensor is in orbit, scientists can compare the results that the VIIRS sensor reports on ocean color with the known results from sensors on ocean buoys that also measure ocean color in select locations. Then, if the sensors do not accurately report the ground conditions, scientists can calibrate, or “tweak,” the algorithms used to develop sensor, temperature, and environmental data records to report on ground conditions more accurately. According to an agency official, fully calibrating a simple sensor once it has been launched can take approximately a year. A more complicated sensor can take 18 months to 2 years (see figure 14).

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Sources: GAO (analysis), NASA (images). Figure 13. Satellite Data Processing Algorithms.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Sources: GAO and Map Resources. Figure 14. Describes the High-Level Calibration and Validation Process.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

APPENDIX III: COMMENTS FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

53

United States Government Accountability Office

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

54

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

55

56

United States Government Accountability Office

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

APPENDIX IV: COMMENTS FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

57

58

United States Government Accountability Office

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

APPENDIX V: COMMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites

59

APPENDIX VI: GAO CONTACT AND STAFF ACKNOWLEDGMENTS GAO Contact David A. Powner, (202) 512-9286, or [email protected]

Staff Acknowledgments In addition to the contact named above, Colleen Phillips, Assistant Director; Carol Cha; Neil Doherty; Nancy Glover; Kathleen S. Lovett; Karen Richey; and Teresa Smith made key contributions to this report.

REFERENCES

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

[1]

[2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7]

GAO, Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites: Cost Increases Trigger Review and Place Program’s Direction on Hold, GAO-06-573T (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 30, 2006); GAO, Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites: Technical Problems, Cost Increases, and Schedule Delays Trigger Need for Difficult Trade-off Decisions, GAO-06-249T (Washington, D.C.: Nov. 16, 2005); GAO, Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellites: Information on Program Cost and Schedule Changes, GAO-041054 (Washington, D.C.: Sept. 30, 2004); GAO, Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellites: Project Risks Could Affect Weather Data Needed by Civilian and Military Users, GAO-03-987T (Washington, D.C.: July 15, 2003); and GAO, Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellites: Status, Plans, and Future Data Management Challenges, GAO-02-684T (Washington, D.C.: July 24, 2002) Three DMSP satellites and one POES satellite remain to be launched Presidential Decision Directive NSTC-2, May 5, 1994. GAO-03-987T. GAO-04-1054. GAO-06-249T. GAO-06-573T. 10 U.S.C. § 2433 is commonly referred to as Nunn-McCurdy.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

60 [8] [9]

[10]

[11]

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

[12]

[13] [14] [15]

[16] [17]

United States Government Accountability Office 10 U.S.C. § 2433 (e)(2) has recently been amended by Pub. L. No. 109-163, § 802 (Jan. 6, 2006) and Pub. L. No. 109-364, § 213 (a) (Oct. 17, 2006) The European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellite’s MetOp program is a series of three polar-orbiting satellites dedicated to operational meteorology. MetOp satellites are planned to be launched sequentially over 14 years. According to program officials, although the Nunn-McCurdy certification decision specifies NPP is to launch by January 2010, NASA plans to launch it by September 2009 to reduce the possibility of a climate data continuity gap. The NPOESS program office selected key milestones from a much larger set of ongoing and planned milestones in order to track progress. GAO-06-249T; U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of the Inspector General, Poor Management Oversight and Ineffective Incentives Leave NPOESS Program Well Over Budget and Behind Schedule, OIG-17794-60001/2006 (Washington, D.C.: May 2006). In addition, two independent teams reviewed the NPOESS program in 2005: A NASA-led Independent Review Team investigated problems with the VIIRS sensor and the impact on NPP, and a DOD-led Independent Program Assessment Team assessed the broader NPOESS program. The teams briefed the NPOESS Executive Committee on their findings in August 2005 and November 2005, respectively. GAO-06-249T. GAO, Space Acquisitions: Improvements Needed in Space Acquisitions and Keys to Achieving Them, GAO-06-626T (Washington, D.C.: Apr. 6, 2006). The acquisition portion of the program includes satellite development, production, and launch. It does not include operations and support costs after launch. The cost analysis group determined that there was a 90 percent confidence level that there would be no weather coverage gap. A 50 percent level of confidence indicates that NPOESS has a 50 percent chance that the restructured program (as defined in the Nunn-McCurdy certification decision) will be delivered as planned at the acquisition cost of $11.5 billion.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

In: Environmental Satellites Editor: Vincent L. Webber., pp. 61-94

ISBN 978-1-60692-984-1 © 2009 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

Chapter 2

ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES: POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITE ACQUISITION FACES DELAYS; DECISIONS NEEDED ON WHETHER AND HOW TO ENSURE CLIMATE DATA CONTINUITY ∗

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

United States Government Accountability Office WHAT GAO FOUND The NPOESS program office has completed most of the major activities associated with restructuring the acquisition, but key activities remain to be completed. In the past year, the program redefined the program’s deliverables, costs, and schedules, and renegotiated the NPOESS contract. However, agency executives have not yet finalized selected acquisition documents. Without executive approval, the program lacks the underlying commitment needed to effectively manage a tri-agency program. In addition, given that DOD has stated it would not release fiscal year 2009 funds to the NPOESS program if key acquisition documents are not completed by August 2008, delays in completing these documents could affect the program’s funding and schedule. ∗

This is an edited, reformatted and augmented version of a United States Government Accountability Office Report GAO-08-899T, Testimony Before the House Committee on Science and Technology, Subcommittee on Energy and Environment publication, dated June 19, 2008.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

62

United States Government Accountability Office

In the past year, the NPOESS program has made progress in completing development and testing activities associated with the spacecraft, sensors, and ground systems. However, key milestones have been delayed and multiple risks remain. Specifically, poor workmanship and testing delays caused an 8- month slip in the delivery of a complex imaging sensor called the Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite. This late delivery caused a corresponding 8-month delay in the expected launch date of the NPOESS Preparatory Project demonstration satellite, moving it from late September 2009 to early June 2010. Moving forward, risks remain in completing the testing of key sensors and integrating them on the spacecraft, resolving interagency disagreements about the appropriate level of system security, and revising outdated operations and support cost estimates— which program officials say could increase the lifecycle cost by about $1 billion. The program office is aware of these risks and is working to mitigate them, but these issues could affect the program’s overall schedule and cost. When the NPOESS restructuring agreement removed four climate and space environment sensors from the program and degraded four others, it led NASA, NOAA, and DOD to reassess their priorities and options for obtaining climate and space environment data. Since the June 2006 restructuring decision, the three agencies have taken preliminary steps to restore the capabilities of selected climate and space weather sensors that were removed from the NPOESS program by prioritizing the sensors, assessing options for restoring them, and making decisions to mitigate near-term data continuity needs by restoring two sensors to the demonstration satellite and one sensor to the first NPOESS satellite. However, the agencies have not yet developed plans on whether and how to replace sensors on a long-term basis as no plans have been made for sensors or satellites after the first satellite of the program. Until such a plan is developed, the agencies may lose their windows of opportunity for selecting cost-effective options or they may resort to an ad hoc approach to restoring these sensors. Almost 2 years have passed since key sensors were removed from the NPOESS program; further delays in establishing a plan could result in gaps in the continuity of climate and space data.

Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee: We appreciate the opportunity to participate in today’s hearing to discuss our work on the $12.5 billion dollar National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program. NPOESS is expected to be a state-of-the-art, environment- monitoring satellite system that will replace two

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Environmental Satellites

63

existing polar- orbiting environmental satellite systems. Polar-orbiting satellites provide data and imagery that are used by weather forecasters, climatologists, and the military to map and monitor changes in weather, climate, the oceans, and the environment. The NPOESS program is considered critical to the United States’ ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting (including severe weather events such as hurricanes) and global climate monitoring through the year 2026. Three agencies share responsibility for the NPOESS program: the Department of Commerce’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Department of Defense (DOD)/United States Air Force, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). To manage the NPOESS program, these agencies established a tri-agency integrated program office. In recent years, the program has experienced escalating costs, schedule delays, and technical difficulties, which led to a June 2006 decision to restructure it. This decision decreased the complexity of the program by reducing the number of satellites and sensors, increased the estimated cost of the program to $12.5 billion, and delayed the launches of the first two satellites by 3 and 5 years, respectively. As requested, this statement summarizes our report being released today that (1) evaluates the NPOESS program office’s progress in restructuring the acquisition, (2) assesses the status of key program components and risks, (3) and assesses NASA’s, NOAA’s, and DOD’s plans for obtaining the environmental data originally planned to be collected by NPOESS sensors, but then eliminated by the restructuring [1]. In preparing this testimony, we relied on our work supporting the accompanying report. That report contains a detailed overview of our scope and methodology. In addition, we updated factual information on sensors and due dates as warranted. All the work on which this testimony is based was performed in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.

RESULTS IN BRIEF The NPOESS program office has completed most of the major activities associated with restructuring the acquisition, but key activities remain to be completed. In the past year, the program redefined the program’s deliverables, costs, and schedules, and renegotiated the NPOESS contract. However, agency executives have not yet finalized selected acquisition documents, including the triagency memorandum of agreement and the acquisition program baseline. In April 2007, we reported that key acquisition documents were already over six months

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

64

United States Government Accountability Office

late and recommended that agency officials complete them immediately [2]. Agency officials subsequently extended the due dates of the documents. Moreover, although DOD has had a role in delaying their completion, the Department has stated it would not release fiscal year 2009 funds to the NPOESS program if key acquisition documents are not completed by August 2008. Without executive approval of the memorandum of agreement and other key documents, the program lacks the underlying commitment needed to effectively manage a triagency program. In addition, given DOD’s recent instructions, any further delays in completing these documents could affect the program’s funding and schedule. In the past year, the NPOESS program has made progress in completing development and testing activities associated with the spacecraft, sensors, and ground systems. However, key milestones have been delayed and multiple risks remain. Specifically, poor workmanship and testing delays caused an 8-month slip in the delivery of a complex imaging sensor called the Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite. This late delivery caused a corresponding 8-month delay in the expected launch date of the NPOESS Preparatory Project demonstration satellite, moving it from late September 2009 to early June 2010. Any delay in this launch date shortens the time available for identifying lessons learned from the demonstration satellite while it is in orbit and incorporating these lessons in the development of the first NPOESS satellite. Such delays could also lead to gaps in weather and climate data continuity if existing satellites begin to degrade or fail. Moving forward, risks remain in completing the testing of key sensors and integrating them on the spacecraft, resolving interagency disagreements about the appropriate level of system security, and revising outdated operations and support cost estimates—which program officials say could increase the lifecycle cost by about $1 billion. The program office is aware of these risks and is working to mitigate them, but these issues could affect the program’s overall schedule and cost. When the NPOESS restructuring agreement removed four climate and space environment sensors from the program and degraded four others, it led NASA, NOAA, and DOD to reassess their priorities and options for obtaining climate and space environment data. Since the June 2006 restructuring decision, the three agencies have taken preliminary steps to restore the capabilities of selected climate and space weather sensors that were removed from the NPOESS program by prioritizing the sensors, assessing options for restoring them, and making decisions to mitigate near-term data continuity needs by restoring two sensors to the demonstration satellite and one sensor to the first NPOESS satellite. However, the agencies have not yet developed plans on whether and how to ensure climate and space weather data on a long-term basis as no plans have been made for

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Environmental Satellites

65

sensors or satellites after the first satellite of the program. Until such a plan is developed, the agencies may lose their windows of opportunity for selecting costeffective options or they may resort to an ad hoc approach to restoring these sensors. Almost 2 years have passed since key sensors were removed from the NPOESS program; further delays in establishing a plan could result in gaps in the continuity of climate and space data. In our report, we made recommendations to all three agencies to establish plans on whether and how to restore the climate and space sensors removed from the NPOESS program by June 2009, in cases where the sensors are warranted and justified. In addition, we also reemphasized a recommendation made in our prior report [3] that the appropriate NASA, NOAA, and DOD executives immediately finalize key acquisition documents. All three agencies concurred with these recommendations.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

BACKGROUND Since the 1960s, the United States has operated two separate operational polar-orbiting meteorological satellite systems: the Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POE S) series— managed by NOAA—and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)—managed by the Air Force. These satellites obtain environmental data that are processed to provide graphical weather images and specialized weather products—including both terrestrial and space weather. These satellite data are also the predominant input to numerical weather prediction models, which are a primary tool for forecasting weather 3 or more days in advance—including forecasting the path and intensity of hurricanes. The weather products and models are used to predict the potential impact of severe weather so that communities and emergency managers can help prevent and mitigate their effects. Polar satellites also provide data used to monitor environmental phenomena, such as ozone depletion and drought conditions, as well as data sets that are used by researchers for a variety of studies such as climate monitoring.

NPOESS Overview With the expectation that combining the POES and DMSP programs would reduce duplication and result in sizable cost savings, a May 1994 Presidential Decision Directive required NOAA and DOD to converge the two satellite

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

66

United States Government Accountability Office

programs into a single satellite program capable of satisfying both civilian and military requirements [4]. The converged program, NPOESS, is considered critical to the United States’ ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting and global climate monitoring through the year 2026. To manage this program, DOD, NOAA, and NASA formed the tri-agency Integrated Program Office, located within NOAA. Within the program office, each agency has the lead on certain activities: NOAA has overall program management responsibility for the converged system and for satellite operations; DOD has the lead on the acquisition; and NASA has primary responsibility for facilitating the development and incorporation of new technologies into the converged system. NOAA and DOD share the costs of funding NPOESS, while NASA funds specific technology projects and studies. The NPOESS program office is overseen by an Executive Committee, which is made up of the Administrators of NOAA and NASA and the Under Secretary of the Air Force. NPOESS is a major system acquisition that was originally estimated to cost about $6.5 billion over the 24-year life of the program from its inception in 1995 through 2018. The program is to provide satellite development, satellite launch and operation, and ground- based satellite data processing. These deliverables are grouped into four main categories: (1) the space segment, which includes the satellites and sensors; (2) the integrated data processing segment, which is the system for transforming raw data into environmental data records (EDR) and is to be located at four data processing centers; (3) the command, control, and communications segment, which includes the equipment and services needed to support satellite operations; and (4) the launch segment, which includes launch vehicle services. When the NPOESS engineering, manufacturing, and development contract was awarded in August 2002, the cost estimate was adjusted to $7 billion. Acquisition plans called for the procurement and launch of six satellites over the life of the program, as well as the integration of 13 instruments—consisting of 10 environmental sensors and 3 subsystems. Together, the sensors were to receive and transmit data on atmospheric, cloud cover, environmental, climatic, oceanographic, and solar-geophysical observations. The subsystems were to support non-environmental search and rescue efforts, sensor survivability, and environmental data collection activities. The program office considered 4 of the sensors to be critical because they provide data for key weather products; these sensors are in bold in table 1, which describes each of the expected.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Table 1. Expected NPOESS Instruments, as of August 31, 2004 (critical sensors are in bold) Instrument Advanced technology microwave sounder Aerosol polarimetry sensor Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder Cross-track infrared sounder Data collection system Earth radiation budget sensor Ozone mapper/profiler suite Radar altimeter

Search and rescue satellite aided tracking system Space environmental sensor suite Survivability sensor Total solar irradiance sensor Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite (VIIRS)

Description Measures microwave energy released and scattered by the atmosphere and is to be used with infrared sounding data from the cross-track infrared sounder to produce daily global atmospheric temperature, humidity, and pressure profiles Retrieves specific measurements of clouds and aerosols (liquid droplets or solid particles suspended in the atmosphere, such as sea spray, smog, and smoke) Collects microwave images and data needed to measure rain rate, ocean surface wind speed and direction, amount of water in the clouds, and soil moisture, as well as temperature and humidity at different atmospheric levels Collects measurements of the earth’s radiation to determine the vertical distribution of temperature, moisture, and pressure in the atmosphere Collects environmental data from platforms around the world and delivers them to users worldwide Measures solar short-wave radiation and long-wave radiation released by the earth back into space on a worldwide scale to enhance long-term climate studies Collects data needed to measure the amount and distribution of ozone in the earth’s atmosphere. Consists of two components (limb and nadir), which can be provided separately Measures variances in sea surface height/topography and ocean surface roughness, which are used to determine sea surface height, significant wave height, and ocean surface wind speed and to provide critical inputs to ocean forecasting and climate prediction models Detects and locates aviators, mariners, and land-based users in distress Collects data to identify, reduce, and predict the effects of space weather on technological systems, including satellites and radio links Monitors for attacks on the satellite and notifies other instruments in case of an attack Monitors and captures total and spectral solar irradiance data Collects images and radiometric data used to provide information on the earth’s clouds, atmosphere, ocean, and land surfaces

Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS program office data.

68

United States Government Accountability Office

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

In addition, a demonstration satellite, called the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP), was planned to be launched several years before the first NPOESS satellite in order to reduce the risk associated with launching new sensor technologies and to ensure continuity of climate data with NASA’s Earth Observing System satellites. NPP was to host three of the four critical NPOESS sensors, as well as one other noncritical sensor and to provide the program office and the processing centers an early opportunity to work with the sensors, ground control, and data processing systems [5]. When the NPOESS development contract was awarded, the schedule for launching the satellites was driven by a requirement that the satellites be available to back up the final POES and DMSP satellites should anything go wrong during the planned launches of these satellites. Early program milestones included (1) launching NPP by May 2006, (2) having the first NPOESS satellite available to back up the final POES satellite launch in March 2008, and (3) having the second NPOESS satellite available to back up the final DMSP satellite launch in October 2009. If the NPOESS satellites were not needed to back up the final predecessor satellites, their anticipated launch dates would have been April 2009 and June 2011, respectively.

NPOESS Experienced Cost Increases, Schedule Delays, and Technical Problems That Led to Decision to Restructure the NPOESS Program Over several years, we reported that NPOESS had experienced continued cost increases, schedule delays, and serious technical problems [6]. By November 2005, we estimated that the cost of the program had grown from $7 billion to over $10 billion. In addition, the program was experiencing major technical problems with the VIIRS sensor and expected to delay the launch date of the first satellite by almost 2 years. These issues ultimately required difficult decisions to be made about the program’s direction and capabilities. The Nunn-McCurdy law requires DOD to take specific actions when a major defense acquisition program cost growth exceeds certain thresholds [7]. The law requires the Secretary of Defense to notify Congress when a major defense acquisition is expected to overrun its current baseline by 15 percent or more and to certify the current program to Congress when it is expected to overrun its baseline by 25 percent or more [8]. In November 2005, NPOESS exceeded the 25 percent threshold, and DOD was required to certify the program. Certifying a program entails providing a determination that (1) the program is essential to national security, (2) there are no

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Environmental Satellites

69

alternatives to the program that will provide equal or greater military capability at less cost, (3) the new estimates of the program’s cost are reasonable, and (4) the management structure for the program is adequate to manage and control costs. DOD established tri-agency teams—made up of DOD, NOAA, and NASA experts—to work on each of the four elements of the certification process. In June 2006, DOD (with the agreement of both of its partner agencies) certified a restructured NPOESS program, estimated to cost $12.5 billion through 2026 [9]. This decision approved a cost increase of $4 billion over the prior approved baseline cost and delayed the launch of NPP and the first 2 satellites by roughly 3 to 5 years. The new program also entailed reducing the number of satellites to be produced and launched from 6 to 4, and reducing the number of instruments on the satellites from 13 to 9—consisting of 7 environmental sensors and 2 subsystems. It also entailed using NPOESS satellites in the early morning and afternoon orbits and relying on European satellites for midmorning orbit data [10]. Table 2 summarizes the major program changes made under the NunnMcCurdy certification decision. The Nunn-McCurdy certification decision established new milestones for the delivery of key program elements, including launching NPP by January 2010, launching the first NPOESS satellite by January 2013, and launching the second NPOESS satellite by January 2016. These revised milestones deviated from prior plans to have the first NPOESS satellite available to back up the final POES satellite should anything go wrong during that launch. Delaying the launch of the first NPOESS satellite meant that if the final POES satellite fails on launch, satellite data users would need to rely on the existing constellation of environmental satellites until NPP data becomes available—almost 2 years later. Although NPP was not intended to be an operational asset, NASA agreed to move NPP to a different orbit so that its data would be available in the event of a premature failure of the final POES satellite. If the health of the existing constellation of satellites diminishes—or if NPP data is not available, timely, and reliable—there could be a gap in environmental satellite data. In order to reduce program complexity, the Nunn-McCurdy certification decision decreased the number of NPOESS sensors from 13 to 9 and reduced the functionality of 4 sensors. Specifically, of the 13 original sensors, 5 sensors remain unchanged (but 2 are on a reduced number of satellites), 3 were replaced with older or less capable sensors, 1 was modified to provide less functionality, and 4 were canceled. The certification decision also made allowances for the reintegration of the cancelled sensors. Specifically, the program was directed to build each NPOESS spacecraft with enough room and power to accommodate the

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

70

United States Government Accountability Office

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

sensors that were removed from the program and to fund the integration and testing of any sensors that are later restored. Agency sponsors external to the program would be responsible for justifying and funding the sensor’s development, while the NPOESS Executive Committee would have the final decision on whether to include the sensor on a specific satellite. Table 3 identifies the changes to the NPOESS instruments. The changes in NPOESS sensors affected the number and quality of the resulting weather and environmental products, called environmental data records (EDR). In selecting sensors for the restructured program during the NunnMcCurdy process, decision makers placed the highest priority on continuing current operational weather capabilities and a lower priority on obtaining selected environmental and climate measuring capabilities. As a result, the revised NPOESS system has significantly less capability for providing global climate measures than was originally planned. Specifically, the number of EDRs was decreased from 55 to 39, of which 6 are of a reduced quality. The 39 EDRs that remain include cloud base height, land surface temperature, precipitation type and rate, and sea surface winds. The 16 EDRs that were removed include cloud particle size and distribution, sea surface height, net solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere, and products to depict the electric fields in the space environment. The 6 EDRs that are of a reduced quality include ozone profile, soil moisture, and multiple products depicting energy in the space environment.

Major Restructuring Activities Have Been Completed, but Key Remaining Activities Could Affect Funding and Schedule The program office has completed major activities associated with restructuring NPOESS, but key supporting activities remain— including obtaining approval of key acquisition documents—and delays in completing these activities could affect the program’s funding and schedule. Restructuring a major acquisition program like NPOESS is a process that involves reassessing and redefining the program’s deliverables, costs, and schedules, and renegotiating the contract. The restructuring process also involves revising important acquisition documents such as the tri-agency memorandum of agreement, the acquisition strategy, the system engineering plan, the integrated master schedule defining what needs to happen by when, and the acquisition program baseline.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Table 2. Summary of Changes to the NPOESS Program, as of June 2006 Key area Life cycle range

Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision 1995-2020

Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision 1995-2026

Estimated life cycle cost Launch schedule

$8.4 billion

$12.5 billion

NPP by October 2006 First NPOESS by November 2009 Second NPOESS by June 2011

NPP by January 2010 First NPOESS by January 2013 Second NPOESS by January 2016 System Program Director is responsible for day-to-day programmanagement and reports to the Program Executive Officer

Management structure

System Program Director reports to a tri-agency steering committee and a tri-agency Executive Committee Independent program reviews noted insufficient system engineering and cost analysis staff

Number of satellites

6 (in addition to NPP)

Number of orbits

3 (early morning, midmorning, and afternoon)

Number and complement of instruments Number of EDRs

13 instruments (10 sensors and 3 subsystems)

55

a

Program Executive Officer oversees program and reports to thetri-agency Executive Committee 4 (in addition to NPP) 2 (early morning and afternoon; will rely on European satellites for midmorning orbit data) 9 instruments (7 sensors and 2 subsystems); 4 of the sensors are to provide fewer capabilities 39 (6 are to be degraded products)

Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS program office data. a Although the Nunn-McCurdy certification decision specifies NPP is to launch by January 2010, NASA planned to launch it by September 2009 to reduce the possibility of a climate data continuity gap.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Table 3. Changes to NPOESS Instruments (critical sensors in bold) Instrument Advanced technology microwave sounder Aerosol polarimetry sensor Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder Cross-track infrared sounder Data collection system Earth radiation budget sensor Ozone mapper/profiler suite Radar altimeter Search and rescue satellite aided tracking system Space environmental sensor suite Survivability sensor Total solar irradiance sensor Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite

Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision Sensor unchanged; to be included on NPP and on afternoon satellites a

Sensor was canceled Sensor was canceled; program office to procure a less complex microwave imager/sounder for inclusion beginning on the second NPOESS satellite Sensor unchanged; to be included on NPP and on afternoon satellites No change; subsystem is to be included on all four NPOESS satellites a

Sensor was canceled; is to be replaced by a legacy sensor One part of the sensor (OMPS-Limb) was canceled; remaining part is to be included on a NPP and on all four NPOESS satellites a

Sensor was canceled Sensor unchanged; subsystem is to be included on all four NPOESS satellites Sensor was canceled; is to be replaced by a less capable, less expensive legacysensor Subsystem was canceled

a

a

a

Sensor was canceled Sensor unchanged; sensor is to be included on NPP and on all four NPOESS satellites

Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS program office data. a While direct program funding for these sensors was eliminated, these sensors could be reintegrated should other parties choose to fund them. The Nunn-McCurdy certification decision notes that the spacecraft is to include space for these sensors and funds to integrate them.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Environmental Satellites

73

In April 2007, we reported that the key acquisition documents were over six months late from their original September 2006 due date, and we recommended that the appropriate executives immediately finalize them [11] This recommendation has not yet been addressed and agency officials subsequently extended the due dates of the documents to September 2007. During the past year, the program redefined the program’s deliverables, costs, and schedules, and renegotiated the NPOESS contract. To do so, the program developed a new program plan and conducted an integrated baseline review of the entire program, which validated that the new deliverables, costs, and schedules were feasible. It also completed key acquisition documents including the system engineering plan and the integrated master schedule. The program and the prime contractor signed a modified contract in July 2007. However, key activities remain to be completed, including obtaining executive approval of key acquisition documents. Specifically, even though agency officials were expected to approve key acquisition documents by September 2007, the appropriate executives have not yet signed off on documents including the tri-agency memorandum of agreement or the acquisition strategy report. They have also not signed off on the acquisition program baseline, the fee management plan, the test and evaluation master plan, and the two-orbit program plan (a plan for how to use European satellite data with NPOESS). Program officials stated that the program has been able to renegotiate the contract and to proceed in developing sensors and systems without these documents being signed because the documents have widespread acceptance within the three agencies. They reported that the delays are largely due to the complexity of obtaining approval from three agencies. For example, program officials reported that an organization within DOD suggested minor changes to the tri-agency memorandum of agreement after months of coordination and after it had already been signed by both the Secretary of Commerce and the Administrator of NASA. Further, after this issue was resolved, a senior official at DOD requested another change to the document. The program office has now made the recommended changes and is re-initiating the coordination process. More recently, in April 2008, DOD moved the due dates for all of the acquisition documents other than the memorandum of agreement and fee management plan from September 2007 to August 31, 2008. (See appendix I for the history of the due dates and status of each document). In addition, even though DOD has had a role in delaying these documents, the Department has stated it would not release fiscal year 2009 funds to the program if these acquisition documents are not completed by the new due date. Without executive approval of key acquisition documents, the program lacks the underlying commitment

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

74

United States Government Accountability Office

necessary to effectively manage a tri-agency program. In addition, given DOD’s newest instructions, any further delays in completing these acquisition documents could affect the program’s funding and schedule.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

PROGRAM HAS MADE PROGRESS, BUT KEY MILESTONES HAVE BEEN DELAYED AND RISKS REMAIN Over the last year, the NPOESS program has made progress by completing planned development and testing activities on its ground and space segments, but key milestones for delivering the VIIRS sensor and launching NPP have been delayed by about 8 months. Moving forward, risks remain in completing the testing of key sensors and integrating them on the NPP spacecraft, in resolving interagency disagreements on the appropriate level of system security, and in revising estimated costs for satellite operations and support. The program office is aware of these risks and is working to mitigate them, but continued problems could affect the program’s overall schedule and cost. Given the tight time frames for completing key sensors, integrating them on the NPP spacecraft, and getting the ground-based data processing system developed, tested, and deployed, it is important for the NPOESS Integrated Program Office, the Program Executive Office, and the Executive Committee to continue to provide close oversight of milestones and risks.

Ground Segment—Progress Made but Important Work Remains to Be Done Development of the ground segment—which includes the interface data processing system, the ground stations that are to receive satellite data, and the ground-based command, control, and communications system—is under way and on track. For example, the Interface Data Processing System has been installed at one of the two locations that are to receive NPP data, and the command, control, and communications system passed acceptance testing for use with NPP. However, important work in developing the algorithms that translate satellite data into weather products within the integrated data processing segment remains to be completed. Table 4 describes each of the components of the ground segment and identifies the program-provided risk level and status of each.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Environmental Satellites

75

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Space Segment—Progress Made, but One Sensor Was Delayed and Sensors Continue to Face Risks Over the past year, the program made progress on the development of the space segment, which includes the sensors and the spacecraft. Five sensors are of critical importance because they are to be launched on the NPP satellite [12]. Initiating work on another sensor, the Microwave Imager Sounder, is also important because this new sensor—which is to replace the canceled Conicalscanned microwave imager/sounder sensor—will need to be developed in time for the second NPOESS satellite launch. Among other activities, the program has successfully completed vibration testing of the flight unit of the Cross-track infrared sounder (CrIS), a major pre-environmental testing review for the VIIRS instrument, integration and risk reduction testing of the flight unit of the Ozone mapper/profiler suite, and thermal testing of the NPP spacecraft with three sensors on board [13]. In addition, the program made decisions on how to proceed with the Microwave imager sounder and recently awarded a contract to a government laboratory for its development. However, the program experienced problems on VIIRS, including poor workmanship on selected subcomponents and delays in completing key tests. These issues delayed VIIRS delivery to the NPP contractor by 8 months. This late delivery will in turn delay the satellite’s launch from late September 2009 to early June 2010. This delay shortens the time available for incorporating lessons learned from NPP while it is in orbit into future NPOESS missions and could lead to gaps in the continuity of climate and weather data if predecessor satellites fail prematurely. Also, the CrIS sensor experienced a cost overrun and schedule delays as the contractor worked to recover from a structural failure and is currently several weeks behind its schedule due to thermal vacuum testing taking longer than planned. The status and risk level of each of the components of the space segment is described in table 5.

ProgramRisks Remain; Continued Oversight Is Needed to Prevent Further Cost Increases and Schedule Delays Moving forward, the program continues to face risks. Over the next 2 years, it will need to complete the development of the key sensors, test them, integrate and test them on the NPP spacecraft, and test these systems with the ground-based data processing systems.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Table 4. Status of Ground Segment Components

Ground segment component/ description Interface Data Processing System (IDPS)— A ground-based system that is to process the sensors’ data so that they are usable by the data processing centers and the broader community of environmental data users. IDPS will be deployed at the four weather data processing centers.

Programidentified risk level Low

Status IDPS software is being developed in a series of builds. In 2007, software developersrequired additional resources and fell behind schedule on build 1.5 activities due to unanticipated complexities in developing algorithms that will make use of data collected by the Ozone mapper/profiler suite in orbit—as well as late delivery of key information on this instrument. As of January 2008, IDPS build 1.5 had been developed and was undergoing testing to check the quality of its performance; additional builds are planned to be developed prior to launch and will be used with NPP. In January 2008, IDPS hardware was installed at one of the data processing centers(NOAA’s National Satellite Operations Facility in Suitland, Maryland) and is expected to be installed at the Air Force Weather Agency this summer. In addition, the Air Force Weather Agency has begun early testing of NPOESS data. Site acceptance testing for NPP is scheduled to be completed in December 2008.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Ground segment component/ description Ground stations for receiving satellite data—

Programidentified risk level Low

15 unmanned ground stations around the world (called SafetyNet™) are to receive satellite data and send it to the four data processing centers.

Command, control, and communications segment—

Low

Performs the day-to-day monitoring and command of the spacecraft and sensors

Source: GAO summary of NPOESS program office data.

Status NOAA is working with domestic and foreign authorities to obtain approval to operate ground stations to receive satellite data. According to agency officials, the full complement of ground stations will not be in place in time for the first NPOESS satellite launch. The ground stations will be phased in by the launch of the second satellite. To date, the program office has reached agreement with 4 of 15 ground station sites. The command, control, and communications segment is being developed in a seriesof builds. In August 2007, build 1.4 transitioned from development to operations and support. In addition, the command, control, and communications acceptance testing for NPP has been completed.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Table 5. Status of Selected Components of the Space Segment, as of May 2008 Space segment component Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite (VIIRS)

Program-identified risk level High

Status In April 2007, we reported that the contractor had identified a problem with the VIIRS baseline filter during environmental testing that caused degraded performance in the filter’s image quality. Specifically, this problem involves light leaking across the seams of the filter, resulting in inaccurate measurements of ocean color. In October 2007, the NPOESS Executive Committee decided to continue sensor development with the baseline filter because changing it would increase risks to sensor development, delay the delivery of the sensor, and risk delays to the launch of NPP. An improved VIIRS filter is planned to be included on the flight units on future NPOESS missions. More recently, the VIIRS contractor experienced problems with workmanship on a electrical andcryoradiator components and delays in executing tests. These factors slowed the sensor’s development. The VIIRS flight unit was originally scheduled to be delivered to NPP by July 2008, but due to technical issues and testing schedule delays, VIIRS’ delivery to NPP is now planned for April 2009.

Cross-track infrared sounder (CrIS)

Moderate

In April 2007, we reported that development of CrIS was put on hold in October 2006 when the flight unit designated to go on NPP experienced a major structural failure during its vibration testing. Acceptance testing began again in mid-2007, and the structural stability of the frame was approved in August 2007. The flight unit is currently undergoing thermal vacuum testing—which has taken longer than planned. The flight unit was expected to be delivered to NPP by May 2008, but it is now expected to be delivered in August 2008.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Space segment component Ozone mapper/profiler suite (nadir and limb)

Program-identified risk level Low

Advanced technology microwave sounder

Low

Clouds and the earth’s radiant energy system

Not yet rated

Microwave imager/ sounder

Low

Spacecraft

Low

Status In April 2007, program officials had agreed to fund the reintegration of the limb component on NPP. The first flight unit completed key integration risk reduction testing and is expected to be delivered to the NPP contractor for integration in August 2008. The flight unit for NPP was developed by a NASA contractor and delivered to the program in October 2005. The NPP contractor integrated the flight unit on the spacecraft in December 2006 and is awaiting delivery of the other sensors in order to complete integration testing. In January 2008, the NPOESS Executive Committee approved including this instrument on NPP. The sensor has already been built but requires some refurbishment. It is expected to be delivered to the NPP spacecraft for integration in October 2008.In January 2008, the programoffice was directed to develop an additional sensor for the first NPOESS satellite. A new microwave imager/sounder sensor is being planned to replace the canceled Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder. In May 2008, the program office selected the U.S. NavalResearch Lab to develop the sensor for the second NPOESS satellite. If it is more cost effective to do so, the program office plans to move production of the second and third MIS sensors to a contractor. Both the development of the spacecraft for NPP and the spacecraft for NPOESS are on track. •The NPP spacecraft was completed in June 2005. The NPP contractor has completed over a year’s worth of risk reduction activities, which included thermal testing of the spacecraft with three of the sensors on board. •The critical design review of the first NPOESS spacecraft is scheduled to be completed inApril 2009, with the launch date scheduled for January 2013.

Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS Integrated Program Office data. a The cryoradiator is a key component of the VIIRS sensor. It is intended to cool down components of the sensor.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

80

United States Government Accountability Office

In addition, the program faces two other issues that could affect its overall schedule and cost. One is that there continues to be disagreement between NOAA and DOD on the appropriate level of system security. To date, NPOESS has been designed and developed to meet DOD’s standards for a mission essential system, but NOAA officials believe that the system should be built to meet more stringent standards [14]. Implementing more stringent standards could cause rework and retesting, and potentially affect the cost and schedule of the system. Another issue is that program life cycle costs could increase once a better estimate of the cost of operations and support is known. The $12.5 billion estimated life cycle cost for NPOESS includes a rough estimate of $1 billion for operations and support. The NPOESS program office is working closely with the contractor and subcontractors to resolve these program risks. To address sensor risks, the program office and officials from NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center commissioned an independent review team to assess the thoroughness and adequacy of practices being used in the assembly, integration, and testing of the VIIRS and CrIS instruments in preparation for the NPP spacecraft. The team found that the contractors for both sensors had sound test programs in place, but noted risks with VIIRS’s schedule and with CrIS’s reliability and performance. The program office adjusted the VIIRS testing schedule and is monitoring the CrIS testing results. In addition, the program office recently instituted biweekly senior-level management meetings to review progress on VIIRS’s development, and program officials noted that both the prime contractor and the program executive office will have senior officials onsite at the contractor’s facility to provide extensive, day-to-day oversight of management activities to assist in resolving issues. To address the risk posed by changing security requirements late in the system’s development, program officials commissioned a study to determine the effect of more stringent standards on the system. This study was completed in March 2008, but has not yet been released. To address the risk of cost growth due to poor estimates of operations and support costs, DOD’s cost analysis group is currently refining this estimate. Program officials estimated that the program costs could grow by about $1 billion, and expect to finalize revised operations and support costs in July 2008. The program office is aware of program risks and is working to mitigate them, but these issues could affect the program’s overall schedule and cost. Given the tight time frames for completing key sensors, integrating them on the NPP spacecraft, and getting the ground-based data processing system developed, tested, and deployed, it is important for the NPOESS program office, the Program

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Environmental Satellites

81

Executive Office, and the Executive Committee to continue to provide close oversight of milestones and risks.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

AGENCIES HAVE UNDERTAKEN PRELIMINARY STEPS TO RESTORE KEY SENSORS, BUT LACK TIMELY PLANS TO ENSURE LONG-TERM DATA CONTINUITY When the NPOESS restructuring agreement removed four climate and space environment sensors from the program and degraded four others, it led NASA, NOAA, and DOD to reassess their priorities and options for obtaining climate and space environment data. Since the June 2006 restructuring decision, the three agencies have taken preliminary steps to restore the capabilities of selected climate and space weather sensors that were degraded or removed from the NPOESS program by prioritizing the sensors, assessing options for restoring them, and making decisions to restore selected sensors in order to mitigate nearterm data gaps. However, the agencies have not yet developed plans to mitigate the loss of these sensors on a long-term basis. Best practices in strategic planning suggest that agencies develop and implement long-term plans to guide their shortterm activities. Until such plans are developed, the agencies may lose their windows of opportunity for selecting cost-effective options or they may resort to an ad hoc approach to restoring these sensors. Lacking plans almost 2 years after key sensors were removed from the NPOESS program, the agencies face increased risk of gaps in the continuity of climate and space environment data. While NPOESS was originally envisioned to provide only weather observations, this mission was later expanded to include long-term continuity for key climate data. Maintaining the continuity of climate and space data over decades is important to identify longterm environmental cycles (such as the 11year solar cycle and multiyear ocean cycles including the El Niño effect) and their impacts, and to detect trends in climate change and global warming. The NunnMcCurdy restructuring decision removed four sensors and degraded the functionality of four other sensors that were to provide these data. DOD, NASA, and NOAA are now responsible for determining what to restore, how to restore it, and the means for doing so. This responsibility includes justifying the additional funding needed to develop these sensors within their respective agencies’ investment decision processes. Best practices of leading organizations call for defining a strategic plan to formalize priorities and plans for meeting mission goals. Such a plan would include the agency’s long-term goals for climate and

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

82

United States Government Accountability Office

space weather measurements, the short-term activities needed to attain these goals, and the milestones and resources needed to support the planned activities.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

NASA, NOAA, and DOD Have Identified Priorities, Assessed Options, and Made Decisions to Restore Selected Sensors Since the June 2006 restructuring, NASA, NOAA, and DOD have taken preliminary steps to restore sensor capabilities by determining priorities for restoring sensor capabilities, assessing options for obtaining sensor data over time, and making decisions to restore selected sensors. Specifically, in August 2006, the NPOESS Senior User Advisory Group—a group representing NASA, NOAA, and DOD system users—assessed the impact of the canceled or degraded sensors and identified priorities for restoring them. In January 2007, a NOAA and NASA working group on climate sensors prioritized which of the sensors were most important to restore for climate purposes and proposed possible solutions and mitigation efforts. Two other groups— the National Research Council and a NOAA-DOD working group—have also issued reports describing the impact of the loss of climate and space environmental sensors, respectively [15]. Table 6 summarizes the results of these studies. In addition to prioritizing the sensors, NASA, NOAA, and DOD identified a variety of options for obtaining key sensor data over the next two decades and continue to seek other options. The agencies identified options including adding sensors back to a later NPOESS satellite, adding sensors to another planned satellite, and developing a new satellite to include several of the sensors. Examples of options for several sensors are provided in figure 1. In addition, in December 2007, NOAA released a request for information to determine whether commercial providers could include selected environmental sensors on their satellites. In addition to prioritizing sensors and identifying options, over the last year, NASA, NOAA, and DOD have taken steps to restore three sensors on a near-term basis. Specifically, in April 2007, the NPOESS Executive Committee decided to restore the limb component of the Ozone mapper/profiler suite to the NPP satellite; in January 2008, to add the Clouds and the earth’s radiant energy sensor to NPP; and in May 2008 to add the Total solar irradiance sensor to the first NPOESS satellite. These decisions are expected to provide continuity for these sensors through approximately 2015. Table 7 shows the latest planned configuration of NPOESS satellites.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Table 6. Summary of Studies on Impacts of the Loss of Sensors and Priorities for Restoring Them

Sensor/ Description

Likely impact of sensor loss

Aerosol polarimetry sensor

•Decreased ability to improve air quality monitoring over time •Decreased ability to improve understanding of aerosol’s impact on the earth’s radiation budget; that is, whether aerosols play a role in global warming •Decreased ability to study the global distribution of aerosols and the impact of aerosols on climate •Decreased ability to improve military munitions targeting and intelligence collection •Cancellation of the Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder raised concerns about the loss of critical environmental data including sea surface temperatures, ice and snow cover, and ocean surface wind speed. •The Microwave imager/sounder is intended to replace the Conicalscanned microwave imager/sounder. However, because the new sensor’s capabilities have not yet been fully defined, the impact of the cancellation of the Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder is not clear.

Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder, to be replaced by the Microwave imager/sounder

Climate Working Group’s priority for restoration 6

NPOESS Advisory Group’s priority for restoration 7

5

2

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Table 6. (Continued) Sensor/ Description

Likely impact of sensor loss

Earth radiation budget sensor (being replaced on selected satellites by an existing sensor, the Clouds and the earth’s radiant energy system)

•Decreased ability to measure the amount of energy entering and leaving the earth •Reduced ability to determine the causes of climate variability and change •Disruption of an over 28-year measurement heritage of earth radiation budget data, which is needed to assess long-term trends. •Decreased ability to understand the health of the ozone layer which absorbs solar ultraviolet radiation that is potentially harmful to humans. •Decreased ability to improve global warming and air quality models to differentiate the impact of changing ozone levels within the atmosphere. •Decreased understanding of the effect of space weather on military and civilian communications and electrical systems—and ability to take timely mitigation actions. •Decreased situational awareness for missile intercept capabilities •Decreased ability to assess Global Positioning System (GPS) accuracy

Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb)

Space environmental sensor suite (to be replaced on selected satellites by an existing technology sensor, the Space environment monitor)

Climate Working Group’s priority for restoration 2

NPOESS Advisory Group’s priority for restoration 6

4

4

unranked

1

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Sensor/ Description

Likely impact of sensor loss

Total solar irradiance sensor

•Decreased ability to understand the influence of natural causes of climate change •Disruption of an over 28-year measurement heritage of solar irradiance data, which is needed to assess long-term trends. •Reduced number of sea surface height and other ocean measurements used in climate monitoring •Decreased ability to measure sea-air interactions that affect regional weather patterns, such as El Niño. •Decreased understanding of storm intensification (e.g., hurricanes), coastal turbulence, and underwater features important to sailors. •Sensor was to identify possible threats to the NPOESS spacecraft and has no impact on climate observations.

Radar altimeter

Survivability sensor

Source: GAO analysis of NASA, NOAA, DOD, and NRC data.

Climate Working Group’s priority for restoration 1

NPOESS Advisory Group’s priority for restoration 5

3

3

unranked

8

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Notes:

(1) The satellites Terra, Aqua, Aura, Glory, and the Solar radiation and climate experiment (SORCE) are all NASA missions. Jason-1 is a joint mission between NASA and France, and the Ocean surface topography mission (OSTM) is a joint mission between NASA, NOAA, France, and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites. (2) The MIS sensor is not included in this chart because NOAA, NASA, and DOD have already agreed to include it on the second, third, and fourth NPOESS satellites. Options for the Space environment sensor suite/ Space environment monitor and the Survivability sensor are not included because DOD has not yet released them.

Figure 1. Selected Options for Restoring Selected Climate Sensors, as of May 2008.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Table 7. Planned Configuration of Instruments on NPP and NPOESS Satellites, as of May 2008 (critical sensors are in bold) Instrument

NPP

Advanced technology microwave sounder (unchanged) Aerosol polarimetry sensor (canceled) Microwave imager/sounder (replacing the canceled Conicalscanned microwave imager/sounder) Cross-track infrared sounder (unchanged) Data collection system (unchanged) Earth radiation budget sensor (canceled, but replaced on NPP and C1 by the Clouds and the earth’s radiant energy system sensor) Ozone mapper/profiler suite (nadir-unchanged) Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb) (canceled, but added to NPP) Radar altimeter (canceled) Space environmental sensor suite (canceled) Space environment monitor (replacing selected capabilities of the space environmental sensor suite) Total solar irradiance sensor (canceled but added to NPOESS C1) Survivability sensor (canceled) Search and rescue satellite aided tracking system (unchanged) Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite (unchanged)

Source: GAO analysis of program office data. Key: X = Sensor is currently planned for this satellite. O = Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this satellite. — = Not applicable—sensor was never planned for this satellite.

X — —

NPOESS C1 (PM) X O —

NPOESS C2 (AM) O — X

NPOESS C3 (PM) X O X

NPOESS C4 (AM) O — X

X — X

X X X

O X —

X X O

O X —

X X — — —

X O — O X

— — O O —

X O — O X

— — O O —

— — — X

X O X X

O O X X

— O X X

O O X X

Environmental Satellites

89

NASA officials noted that they also took steps to mitigate a potential gap in total solar irradiance data by proposing to fund an additional 4 years of the SORCE mission (from 2008 to 2012).

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Agencies Lack Plans to Ensure Long-Term Data Continuity While NASA, NOAA, and DOD have taken preliminary steps to address the climate and space sensors that were removed from the NPOESS program almost 2 years ago, they do not yet have plans for restoring climate and space environment data on a long-term basis. Specifically, there are as yet no firm plans for obtaining most of this data after 2015. The Office of Science and Technology Policy, an organization within the Executive Office of the President, is currently working with NASA, NOAA, and DOD to sort through the costs and benefits of the various options and to develop plans. However, this effort has been under way for almost 2 years and officials could not estimate when such plans would be completed. Delays in developing a comprehensive strategy for ensuring climate and space data continuity may result in the loss of selected options. For example, NASA and NOAA estimated that they would need to make a decision on whether to build another satellite to obtain ocean altimeter data in 2008. Also, the NPOESS program office estimated that if any sensors are to be restored to an NPOESS satellite, it would need a decision about 6 years in advance of the planned satellite launch. Specifically, for a sensor to be included on the second NPOESS satellite, the sponsoring agency would need to commit to do so by January 2010. Without a timely decision on a plan for restoring satellite data on a long-term basis, NASA, NOAA, and DOD risk losing their windows of opportunity on selected options and restoring sensors in an ad hoc manner. Ultimately, the agencies risk a break in the continuity of climate and space environment data. As national and international concerns about climate change and global warming grow, these data are more important than ever to try to understand long-term climate trends and impacts.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

90

United States Government Accountability Office

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

GAO MADE RECOMMENDATIONS TO ENSURE THAT FUTURE CLIMATE NEEDS ARE ADDRESSED AND TO COMPLETE RESTRUCTURING ACTIVITIES Because of the importance of effectively managing the NPOESS program to ensure that there are no gaps in the continuity of critical weather, environmental, and climate observations, in our accompanying report [16] we made recommendations to the Secretaries of Commerce and Defense and to the Administrator of NASA to establish plans on whether and how to restore the climate and space sensors removed from the NPOESS program by June 2009, in cases where the sensors are warranted and justified. In their comments on the report, all three agencies concurred with our recommendations. In addition, both the Department of Commerce and NASA reiterated that they are working with their partner agencies to finalize plans for restoring sensors. In addition, we also reemphasized a recommendation made in our prior report that the appropriate NASA, NOAA, and DOD executives immediately finalize key acquisition documents. All three agencies also concurred with this recommendation. Further, Commerce noted that DOD and NASA executives need to weigh in to resolve issues at, or immediately below, their levels in order to ensure prompt completion of the key acquisition documents. NASA noted that difficulties in gaining consensus across all three NPOESS agencies have delayed the signature of key acquisition documents, and reported that they are committed to moving these documents through the signature cycle once all of the issues and concerns are resolved. In summary, over the past year, program officials have completed major activities associated with restructuring the NPOESS program and have made progress in developing and testing sensors, ground systems, and the NPP spacecraft. However, multiple risks remain. Agency executives have still not signed off on key acquisition documents that were originally to be completed in September 2006, and now DOD is threatening to withhold funding if the documents are not completed by August 2008—even though DOD has contributed to the delays in completing these documents. Also, one critical sensor has experienced technical problems and schedule delays that have led program officials to delay the NPP launch date by about 8 months. Any delay in the NPP launch date shortens the time available for incorporating lessons learned from NPP onto future NPOESS missions and could also lead to gaps in critical climate and weather data. In addition, risks to the program remain in resolving interagency disagreements on the appropriate level of system security and in

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Environmental Satellites

91

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

revising estimated costs for satellite operations and support. The program office is aware of these risks and is working to mitigate them, but continued problems could affect the program’s overall schedule and cost. When selected climate and space weather sensors were removed from the NPOESS program during its restructuring, NASA, NOAA, and DOD became responsible for determining what environmental data to restore and how to restore them. This responsibility includes justifying the additional funding needed to develop these sensors within their respective agency’s investment decision processes. In the 2 years since the restructuring, the agencies have identified their priorities and assessed their options for restoring sensor capabilities. In addition, the agencies made decisions to restore two sensors to the NPP satellite and one to the first NPOESS satellite in order to mitigate near-term data gaps. However, the agencies lack plans for restoring sensor capabilities on a long-term basis. Without a timely decision on a long-term plan for restoring satellite data, the agencies risk a break in the continuity of climate and space environment data. With the increased concern about climate change and global warming, these data are more important than ever to try to understand long-term climate trends and impacts. Mr. Chairman, this concludes my statement. I would be happy to answer any questions that you or members of the committee may have at this time. If you have any questions on matters discussed in this testimony, please cont act me at (202) 512-9286 or by e-mail at [email protected]. Other key contributors to this testimony include Colleen Phillips (Assistant Director), Kate Agatone, and Kathleen S. Lovett.

APPENDIX I: STATUS OF KEY ACQUISITION DOCUMENTS Table 1 identifies the key NPOESS acquisition documents as well as their original and revised due dates. Original due dates were specified in the June 2006 restructuring decision memo. The revised due dates were specified in an addendum to that memo, dated June 2007, and then revised again in another addendum, dated April 2008. Documents that are in bold are overdue.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Table 1. Status of NPOESS Acquisition Documents Acquisition document Alternative Management Plan Award Fee Plan/ Fee Management Plan Acquisition Program Baseline Acquisition Strategy Report Test and Evaluation Master Plan System Engineering Plan Two-Orbit Plan Human Capital Management Plan (to fill vacancies in the Integrated Program Office) Logistics Support Plan Diminishing Manufacturing Sources/ Parts Obsolescence Plan Tri-agency Memorandum of Agreement Integrated Master Plan Quarterly Integrated Baseline Review

Original due date June 2007 Unspecified

Revised due date, as of June 2007 September 1, 2007 October 1, 2007

Revised due date, as of April 2008 Not applicable Due date not revised— remains October 1, 2007

September 1, 2006 September 1, 2006 September 1, 2006 September 1, 2006 November 15, 2006 August 4, 2006

December 1, 2007

August 31, 2008

September 1, 2007

August 31, 2008

March 1, 2008

August 31, 2008

September 1, 2007

Not applicable

October 1, 2007

August 31, 2008

September 1, 2007

Not applicable

Not completed Completed

September 2006 September 2006

September 1, 2007 September 1, 2007

Not applicable Not applicable

Completed Completed

August 4, 2006

September 1, 2007

Due date not revised— remains September 1, 2007

Not completed

April 2007 September 2006

September 1, 2007 September 1, 2007

Not applicable Not applicable

Completed Completed

Source: GAO analysis of DOD and NPOESS program office data.

Status Completed Not completed Not completed Not completed Not completed Completed

Environmental Satellites

93

REFERENCES

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

[1]

GAO, Environmental Satellites: Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces Delay; Decisions Needed on Whether and How to Ensure Climate Data Continuity, GAO-08-518 (Washington, D.C.: May 16, 2008). [2] GAO, Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites: Restructuring is Under Way, but Technical Challenges and Risks Remain, GAO-07-498 (Washington, D.C.: April 27, 2007). [3] GAO-07-498. [4] Presidential Decision Directive NSTC-2, May 5, 1994. [5] The four sensors are the Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite, the Crosstrack infrared sounder, the Advanced technology microwave sounder, and the Ozone mapper/profiler suite. [6] GAO, Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites: Cost Increases Trigger Review and Place Program’s Direction on Hold, GAO-06-573T (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 30, 2006); GAO, Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites: Technical Problems, Cost Increases, and Schedule Delays Trigger Need for Difficult Trade-off Decisions, GAO- 06-249T (Washington, D.C.: Nov. 16, 2005); GAO, Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellites: Information on Program Cost and Schedule Changes, GAO-041054 (Washington, D.C.: Sept. 30, 2004); GAO, Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellites: Project Risks Could Affect Weather Data Needed by Civilian and Military Users, GAO-03-987T (Washington, D.C.: July 15, 2003); and GAO, Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellites: Status, Plans, and Future Data Management Challenges, GAO-02-684T (Washington, D.C.: July 24, 2002). [7] 10 U.S.C. § 2433 is commonly referred to as Nunn-McCurdy. [8] 10 U.S.C. § 2433 has recently been amended by Pub. L. No. 109-163, § 802 (Jan. 6, 2006) and Pub. L. No. 109-364, § 213(a) (Oct. 17, 2006). The law now also includes cost growth thresholds from the program’s original baseline. [9] DOD estimated that the acquisition portion of the certified program would cost $11.5 billion. The acquisition portion includes satellite development, production, and launch, but not operations and support costs after launch. When combined with an estimated $1 billion for operations and support after launch, this brings the program life cycle cost to $12.5 billion. [10] The European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites’ MetOp program is a series of three polar-orbiting satellites dedicated to operational meteorology. MetOp satellites are planned to be

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

94

[11] [12]

[13]

[14]

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

[15]

[16]

United States Government Accountability Office launched sequentially over 14 years. The first of these satellites was launched in 2006 and is currently operational. GAO-07-498. NPP is to include the Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite, Cross-track infrared sounder, Advanced technology microwave sounder, Ozone mapper/profiler suite (nadir and limb), and the Clouds and the earth’s radiant energy system. The three sensors included the flight unit for the Advanced technology microwave sounder and engineering design units for the Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite and the Cross-track infrared sounder. NOAA officials have stated that they believe the program should be built to a “high” security level per Federal Information Processing Standards Publication 199. National Research Council, Options to Ensure the Climate Record from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report (Washington, D.C.: 2007), and the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification and Potential Loss of ACE Spacecraft Solar Wind Data on National Space Environmental Monitoring Capabilities. (Washington, D.C.: January 2008). The report committee was co-chaired by the director of the Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA) and the chief of the Integration, Plans, and Requirements division within the U.S. Air Force Directorate for Weather. Agency partners in the Department of Commerce, DOD, NASA, the National Science Foundation, and the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology concurred with the report. GAO-08-518.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

In: Environmental Satellites Editor: Vincent L. Webber., pp. 95-107

ISBN 978-1-60692-984-1 © 2009 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Chapter 3

WRITTEN STATEMENT BY VICE ADMIRAL CONRAD LAUTENBACHER, JR. (U.S. NAVY, RET.) UNDER SECRETARY OF COMMERCE FOR OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERE AND NOAA ADMINISTRATOR NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE OVERSIGHT HEARING ON “ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITE ACQUISITION FACES DELAYS; DECISIONS NEEDED ON WHETHER AND HOW TO ENSURE CLIMATE DATA CONTINUITY” BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

JUNE 19, 2008

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

96

Written Statement by Conrad Lautenbacher, Jr.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

INTRODUCTION Mr. Chairman and members of the Subcommittee, I am Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere and Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the Department of Commerce (DOC). I appreciate having the opportunity to provide an update of our progress in the development of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Program and discuss the latest Government Accountability Office (GAO) report on the program. I will provide an update on the Program since the June 7, 2007, hearing that reviewed the status of the restructured NPOESS Program. NOAA’s environmental satellite programs are the backbone of the nation’s hurricane and severe weather forecasting and warning capabilities. The 30-year record of NOAA’s environmental satellites to the global climate record is also well known. NOAA’s two major satellite programs each play critical roles in providing environmental information to the nation. NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series is used for short-term weather forecasting and severe storm tracking, while NOAA’s Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) series provides information that is crucial to long-term weather predictions and climate modeling. In early 2009, NOAA N-Prime, the last of the current NOAA POES series, will be launched.

STATUS OF THE NPOESS PROGRAM NOAA’s satellite acquisitions are complex and difficult development efforts. I will be the first to acknowledge that the government does not have a strong track record with regard to recent satellite acquisition development efforts. Through partnerships with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Department of Defense (DoD), and our contracts with industry, we have built and are reinforcing our team to successfully complete NPOESS satellite development. We appreciate GAO’s long-standing review of the NPOESS Program and the guidance and oversight we have derived from it. NOAA is working hard to develop our satellite programs within established cost and schedule boundaries, and with the performance that the nation requires and expects.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Written Statement by Conrad Lautenbacher, Jr.

97

The NPOESS program is funded equally (50:50) by DOC/NOAA and DoD/Air Force annual appropriations. NASA conducts NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) risk reduction and data continuity activities, DoD/Air Force manages the acquisition contract, and DOC/NOAA provides overall program management and operation of the system. Through FY 2008, the NPOESS program will have incurred combined program costs of $4.4 billion. The President’s FY 2009 Budget request for the NPOESS Program is $577 million; of that amount, $288 million is requested for DOC/NOAA, and $289 million for DoD/Air Force. Since the NPOESS Program’s restructure and the contract renegotiation, we have completed a number of management changes that have improved oversight: •

•

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

•

• •

• •

•

Mr. Dan Stockton was selected as the new Program Executive Officer by NOAA with the concurrence of the NPOESS Executive Committee (EXCOM). Colonel Ed Phillips was recently selected as System Program Director. He currently serves as the acting System Program Director. Prior to that, he was the NPOESS Deputy Program Executive Officer. A restructured NPOESS contract is in place that ties contractor compensation to more objective measures of cost, schedule, and performance. The government has replaced the old award fee structure with a clearer performance- based structure. The Chief Executive Officers of Northrop Grumman and Raytheon now attend the regularly scheduled NPOESS EXCOM meetings to ensure that the appropriate resources of these corporations are focused on the development and test issues of the program. Several key climate sensors have been remanifested (or reinstated) on the NPP and NPOESS satellites. A lower risk alternative to the Conical-scanned Microwave Imager/Sounder (CMIS), the Microwave Imager/Sounder (MIS), is being developed by the Naval Research Laboratory. The MIS will be flown on the second (C-2) and third (C-3) NPOESS satellites. The current suite of instruments listed in Appendix 1 reflects the progress the government has made since 2006 to continue weather and climate measurements.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

98

Written Statement by Conrad Lautenbacher, Jr.

As a part of the future planning for the program, the NPOESS Integrated Program Office (IPO) has begun the Alternative Management Study which will develop the options and assessments for viable competing management structures for the NPOESS program. The Alternative Management Study will support future acquisition strategies for the EXCOM consideration. A few of the NPOESS instruments continue to face challenges, but with the Program Managers and Systems Engineers who are now in place, I and the NPOESS EXCOM believe that the Program is better positioned to proactively identify, contain, and manage these challenges as they arise. The table below lists the instruments on NPP and the C-1 satellite

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) Launch: 2010 Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Cross track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) Ozone Mapper/Profiler Suite (OMPS) Nadir and Limb Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES)

NPOESS C-1 Launch: 2013 VIIRS CrIS ATMS OMPS (Nadir) CERES Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) Space Environment Monitor (SEM) Search and Rescue (SARSAT) Advanced Data Collection System (A-DCS)

The Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) continues to be our most challenging instrument to develop, and as such receives a great deal of management and oversight by the government and NPOESS contractor team. We have implemented a number of changes based on the lessons learned during the events that lead to the 2006 restructuring of the Program and on the issues we have encountered since then. The tri-agency partners have instituted rigorous management and engineering reviews to address and resolve problems in an orderly fashion, while at the same time not posing undue risk to the overall Program. With respect to the current challenges with the VIIRS instrument, the Program Executive Officer and System Program Director, with assistance from NASA, are working with the NPOESS contractors to focus the appropriate attention and resources to address the VIIRS development challenges.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

Written Statement by Conrad Lautenbacher, Jr.

99

As the Committee recently learned, the NPOESS program uncovered some potentially significant fastener design flaws with VIIRS in the past few weeks. Although we are cautiously optimistic that technical assessments will result in minimal impact, the worst case scenario could cause a several month delay to the delivery of VIIRS to NPP, which could lead to a further launch delay for NPP. The Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) is undergoing extensive planning and preparation for final sensor checklist items to be complete in time for delivery for NPP integration at the end of July 2008. The Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) -Limb and -Nadir instruments that will fly on NPP have been integrated and a test of the sensors has been completed. With respect to the ground system, the IPO continues to make progress on “SafetyNet”, a system of globally distributed ground data reception stations that will receive data from NPOESS satellites and immediately relay these data to the four Weather Centrals - NOAA/National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service; Air Force Weather Agency; Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center; and Naval Oceanographic Office. The SafetyNet agreements are on schedule and there are no outstanding obstacles that would prevent completing the global ground system network. Development of the Integrated Data Processing Segment (IDPS) continues on-track. The IDPS will process environmental data products beginning with the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) and continuing through the lifetime of the NPOESS system. The IDPS must process a data volume significantly greater than the current POES and DMSP systems and within significantly reduced processing times. The IDPS recently completed factory acceptance test readiness review.

COORDINATION OF TRI-AGENCY ACQUISITION DECISION MEMORANDA The IPO continues to coordinate among the tri-agency partners, DoD/Air Force, NASA, and DOC/NOAA, to conclude and finalize the documents required by the June 2006 Acquisition Decision Memorandum. Six documents remain to be completed. While getting these remaining documents finalized has not hindered our ability to manage and implement the NPOESS Program thus far, they have been challenging to coordinate through a tri-agency process. However, the EXCOM remains committed to completing them. At this time, the six outstanding documents are the:

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

100

Written Statement by Conrad Lautenbacher, Jr. • • • • • •

Fee Management Plan Acquisition Program Baseline Acquisition Strategy Report Test and Evaluation Master Plan Two-Orbit Program NPOESS Tri-Agency Memorandum of Agreement

The program is working to secure final clearance on the documents by later this year.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

STATUS OF RESTORING KEY CLIMATE SENSORS As discussed earlier, the 2006 decision to restructure the NPOESS Program removed (or “demanifested”) several planned sensors that would have sustained key, long-standing climate measurements. The table in Appendix 2 lists the current status of those demanifested sensors. Since this decision, Office of Science Technology Policy (OSTP) and the Office of Management and Budget have worked closely with NASA and NOAA and the climate science community to understand the implications of the loss of these climate sensors for climate and ocean research activities, and to identify options for retaining key measurement capabilities from this group of planned sensors. As a result of these assessments and information provided in the 2007 National Research Council Decadal Survey on Earth Sciences, the Administration concluded that the highest near-term priorities (listed in relative priority order) are to sustain the datasets of the following five key climate measurement capabilities: • • • • •

Total solar irradiance Earth radiation budget RADAR altimetry Ozone vertical profile Aerosols

In addition to continuing these critical measurements, the Administration also recognized the importance of stewardship of the climate data records that will be derived from these instruments. The Administration developed a plan to implement this assessment and requested a $74 million budget initiative in the President’s FY 2009 Budget

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Written Statement by Conrad Lautenbacher, Jr.

101

Request. These funds will be used to support the development of CERES and TSIS in time for their respective launches on NPP and C-1. Specifically, the FY 2009 funds would be applied to the development of the sensors in the following manner: • • •

$38 million for development of CERES for NPP and C-1, which will provide continuity for Earth radiation budget measurements, $28 million for development of TSIS for C-1, which will provide continuity for total solar irradiance measurements, and $8.0 million for development of data record stewardship to provide longterm science support for the data derived from climate instruments.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

This plan complies with the 2006 restructure of the NPOESS Program that requires sensors be restored only if they are funded separately from the joint DOC/NOAA-DoD/Air Force annual appropriations for NPOESS. In this plan, NOAA is responsible for full funding to develop these instruments with NASA providing technical and acquisition assistance on a cost reimbursable basis from NOAA. The plan includes two of the five key measurements detailed in the priority list above. NOAA and NASA have determined that near-term continuity of the other three measurements can be fulfilled through existing plans detailed below: •

• •

Continuity of RADAR altimetry measurements can be fulfilled through the Jason 2 mission scheduled for launch this month. Plans for a followon satellite (Jason 3) are currently being evaluated. Aerosol measurements can be fulfilled with the 2009 launch of the Aerosol Polarimeter Sensor on the NASA GLORY mission. Ozone vertical profile data requirements can be addressed by the NPOESS EXCOM’s 2007 decision to remanifest Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb sensor (OMPSLimb) with the OMPS-Nadir sensor onto NPP.

While these efforts address the most immediate needs for climate sensor continuity, it is recognized that a longer term strategy for climate sensor continuity must also be addressed. NOAA and NASA are continuing to work together to identify the longer term strategy, taking into account current and future national and international assets. The results of these efforts will continue to be vetted with the science community and reflected in outyear budget recommendations.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

102

Written Statement by Conrad Lautenbacher, Jr.

STATUS OF DEMANIFESTED SPACE WEATHER SENSORS In addition to the climate sensors discussed above, the Space Environmental Sensor Suite, which includes five space weather sensors, was demanifested from the NPOESS program in 2006. In June 2007, OSTP requested that the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology convene an interagency group to provide an assessment of the impact of demanifesting these space weather sensors. NOAA, NASA, and the Air Force participated in this assessment. The assessment and report focused on evaluating whether and how to restore these space weather measurements in a two phase approach: Phase I: Assess the impacts of the 2006 NPOESS restructure decisions and the potential loss of NASA’s Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) mission on U.S. space weather-related activities. Phase II: Examine possible options to address these impacts and to restore the capability lost.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

The Phase I report was provided to OSTP earlier this year. The main findings were that the 2006 restructuring of the NPOESS program: • • •

reduced support of Environmental Data Records from 12 to 5, may cause monitoring and warning capabilities to revert to pre-1980 levels, and put precision Global Positioning System (GPS) users at risk.

Additionally, the loss of NASA’s ACE data was deemed critical as it would eliminate the ability to predict the onset of geomagnetic storms. At this time, NASA has instituted a fuel management strategy that may allow ACE to continue to perform until 2020. However, since there is no ACE replacement in development, this single source of data remains an area of concern for NOAA and the space weather community. While OSTP has not formally initiated Phase II of the assessment, it is expected to do so later this year. In addition, the Committee was informed last month that NOAA is currently working to mitigate the loss of some space weather observation capabilities on three of four of its on-orbit geostationary satellites. NOAA is currently relying on GOES-10, the oldest geostationary satellite on orbit, to monitor solar flares, an observation important to users of satellite and high frequency communications

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Written Statement by Conrad Lautenbacher, Jr.

103

and GPS. Plans for future mitigation following the end of the satellite’s service are being planned in partnership with NASA.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

GOVERNMENT ACCOUNTABILITY OFFICE (GAO) RECOMMENDATIONS FOR EXECUTIVE ACTION GAO has provided regular reviews of the NPOESS Program and we appreciate the perspective GAO professionals provide. We have met with GAO and provided information and feedback on its most recent report and believe that existing efforts underway will support the closure of these recommendations. Recommendation number one: In order to bring closure to efforts that have been underway for years, we are making recommendations to the Secretaries of Commerce and Defense and to the Administrator of NASA to establish plans on whether and how to restore the climate and space sensors removed from the NPOESS Program by June 2009, in cases where the sensors are warranted and justified. NOAA concurs with the recommendation and continues to work with OSTP, OMB, NASA, and the climate science community to restore the climate sensors that were demanifested from the NPOESS Program in 2006. While the NPOESS Program continues to face challenges, the triagency NPOESS EXCOM, on the advice of the NPOESS Program Executive Officer, approved remanifesting OMP S-Limb and CERES onto NPP, and remanifesting TSIS onto the first NPOESS C1 satellite. Meeting the required deadlines to integrate these instruments onto NPP and NPOESS C-1 requires full funding of the DOC/NOAA and DoD/Air Force NPOESS Program, and the NOAA climate sensor and climate data record budget requests. An FY 2009 continuing resolution that did not provide full funding for the $74 million for climate sensors would threaten the development of the TSIS and CERES sensors and potentially put into question whether they would be ready for integration onto the NPOESS C1 mission. Restoration of the other measurements will occur in the later years, as previously discussed. Restoration of the space weather sensors is being modeled after the collaborative interagency process with OSTP and OMB that was used to assess the demanifested climate sensors. NOAA continues to work closely with user communities affected by space weather to ensure that its plans address user requirements. NOAA is also working closely with NASA to maximize the utility of the ACE satellite. In the interim, NOAA has requested input from the aerospace industry and several suggested concepts and proposals are being

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

104

Written Statement by Conrad Lautenbacher, Jr.

evaluated as potential commercial opportunities for data purchases, secondary payload opportunities, and commercially provided satellites to meet projected NOAA observational requirements. Recommendation number two: In addition, we are reemphasizing our prior recommendation that the appropriate NASA, NOAA, DoD executives immediately finalize key acquisition documents. NOAA concurs with this recommendation and has been working with the tri-agency NPOESS EXCOM to reach the agreements required to complete the six outstanding Acquisition Decision Memorandum documents. Recently, the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics issued an extension until August 2008 to complete the documents. The NPOESS Program Executive Officer has made completing this task one of his top priorities and the EXCOM Principals and their staffs are supporting his efforts.

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

CONCLUSION In conclusion, I appreciate the Committee’s continued interest in the success of NOAA’s satellite programs. It is widely acknowledged that satellites are very complicated and difficult systems to design, build, and operate. However, their capabilities play a key role in NOAA’s mission to observe and predict the Earth’s environment and to provide critical information used in protecting life and property. We are making significant strides in developing better processes for designing and acquiring our satellites. We currently have well functioning operational satellites with backup systems in place, and we are working on the next generation that will provide significant improvements in our ability to forecast the weather and monitor the climate. I would be happy to answer any questions you may have.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

APPENDIX 1 NPOESS INSTRUMENTS (AS OF JUNE 2008) Instrument

Function

Status

Visible Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)

Collects visible infrared data of the Earth’s atmosphere, ocean, and land such as clouds, snow, ice, and sea surface temperature

In Development

Crosstrack Infrared Sounder (CrIS)

Measures vertical distribution of temperature, moisture, and pressure in the atmosphere Collects data on distribution of ozone in the Earth's atmosphere

In Development

Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS)

In Development

Advanced Data Collection System (ADCS)

Collects and redistributes data from remote sites. Monitors species migration

Government Furnished Equipment (GFE) instrument to IPO

Cloud and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)

Measures both solar-reflected and Earth- emitted radiation from the top of the atmosphere to the Earth's surface

In Development

Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS)

Senses data on temperature and moisture profiles

In Development

Space Environment Monitor (SEM)

Collects data on the space environment

Development to begin in FY 2008

Search and Rescue Satellite Aided Tracking (SARSAT)

Detects and locates aviators, mariners, and land-based users in distress

GFE instrument to IPO

Microwave Imager/Sounder (MIS)

Measures atmospheric temperature and pressure, and the velocity and direction of the ocean and wind currents

Development to begin in FY 2008

Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS)

Measures total and spectral density of solar radiation on the earth

Development to begin in FY 2009. GFE instrument to IPO

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009. ProQuest

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

APPENDIX 2. STATUS OF THE CLIMATE SENSORS DEMANIFESTED DURING 2006 RESTRUCTURING OF THE NPOESS PROGRAM Sensor Aerosol Polarimetry Sensor (APS) RADAR Altimeter

Survivability Sensor Total Solar Irradiance Sensor Conical-scanned Microwave Imager/Sounder (CMIS) Earth Radiation Budget Sensor Ozone Mapper/Profiler Suite (OMPS) Space Environmental Sensor Suite

Current Status NASA is developing an APS instrument which is scheduled to be launched on the GLORY mission. APS has experienced developmental challenges that have delayed the launch date from December 2008 to 2009. NOAA is monitoring that developmental process closely before making a decision to move forward on this sensor. Ocean Surface Topography Mission on the Jason-2 satellite (OSTM/Jason-2) is scheduled for launch in June 2008. O STM/Jason-2 will continue satellite altimetry measurements from the Jason mission. NOAA, NASA, the French Space Agency (CNES), and EUMETSAT are collaborating to provide operational support for Jason-2. NOAA will support data processing, archiving and distribution of products that its users require. NOAA is evaluating options for operational continuity for altimetry data with a satellite follow-on (Jason 3). Details are still being negotiated. This sensor was specific to Department of Defense requirements, and is not a priority for NOAA. NOAA is not pursuing this instrument. TSIS measurements are important to NOAA. Development of the TSIS instrument is the most immediate priority. The NPOESS Executive Committee (EXCOM) recently decided to place the TSIS instrument on C1, the first NPOESS satellite. The NPOESS Integrated Program Office (IPO) recently announced a partnership with the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) to develop the first MIS sensor. The NRL plans to move production of additional MIS sensors for subsequent NPOESS launches to an industry partner, should this prove more costeffective. The EXCOM recently decided to place the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument on the NPOESS Preparatory Project. This will assure continuity of measurements between NASA research satellites and first NPOESS spacecraft’s CERES instrument. In April 2007, NOAA and NASA jointly announced that it would add the OMPS-Limb portion of the sensor back to the OMPSNadir portion on NPP. The White House Office of Science Technology Policy is working with NOAA, NASA and DoD to study various options to acquire these data.

INDEX

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

A accuracy, 84 ACE, 94, 102, 103 acquisitions, 31, 96 ad hoc, 31, 62, 65, 81, 89 administrative, 32, 45, 46 aerosols, 15, 67, 83 aerospace, 103 afternoon, 7, 18, 19, 69, 71, 72 air, 83, 84, 85 air quality, 83, 84 air quality model, 84 algorithm, 31, 43, 49, 50 alternative, 35, 97 alternatives, 17, 69 analysts, 28, 31, 32, 35 analytical tools, 43 appendix, 41, 47, 73 appropriations, 97, 101 assessment, 100, 102 assets, 101 assumptions, 4, 33, 48 atmosphere, 8, 10, 15, 24, 67, 70, 84, 105 attacks, 15, 67 auditing, 4, 49, 63 awareness, 84

B barriers, 46

benefits, 89 breakdown, 34, 48

C calibration, 10, 39, 43, 50 candidates, 32 CERES, 98, 101, 103, 105, 106 certification, 17, 18, 20, 25, 28, 29, 31, 32, 37, 48, 60, 69, 71, 72 channels, 10 civilian, 10, 66, 84 climate change, 81, 85, 89, 91 closure, 103 clouds, 15, 50, 67, 105 communications satellites, 8 communities, 7, 65, 103 community, 76, 100, 101, 102, 103 compensation, 97 complement, 19, 71, 77 complexity, 1, 4, 18, 27, 32, 63, 69, 73 components, 30, 36, 40, 41, 63, 67, 74, 75, 78, 79 confidence, 34, 35, 60 configuration, 7, 24, 35, 82 Congress, iv, 17, 68 consensus, 90 continuity, vii, 3, 6, 10, 14, 20, 31, 33, 34, 45, 46, 60, 62, 63, 64, 66, 68, 71, 75, 81, 82, 89, 90, 91, 97, 101, 106 contractors, 29, 37, 40, 47, 49, 80, 98

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

108

Index

contracts, 31, 96 control, 14, 18, 27, 41, 42, 48, 66, 68, 69, 74, 77 corporations, 97 cost saving, 10, 65 cost-effective, 62, 65, 81, 106 costs, 2, 4, 5, 13, 16, 17, 18, 25, 33, 34, 35, 36, 60, 61, 63, 66, 69, 70, 73, 74, 80, 89, 91, 93, 97 coverage, 7, 10, 60 cross-talk, 38 cycles, 81

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

D data collection, 14, 66 data processing, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 10, 13, 14, 16, 27, 36, 41, 43, 44, 48, 49, 66, 68, 74, 75, 76, 77, 80, 106 data set, 7, 9, 10, 65 decision makers, 70 decision making, 17, 29 decisions, 16, 62, 64, 68, 75, 81, 82, 91, 102 defense, 17, 68 delivery, 18, 31, 37, 38, 40, 62, 64, 69, 75, 76, 78, 79, 99 density, 105 Department of Commerce, v, 3, 6, 45, 46, 53, 60, 63, 90, 94, 95, 96 Department of Defense (DOD), 3, 45, 49, 56, 63, 96, 106 detection, 50 developmental process, 106 distress, 15, 67, 105 distribution, 9, 10, 15, 24, 47, 67, 70, 83, 105, 106 division, 29, 30, 31, 32, 94 draft, 6, 45, 46, 48 drought, 7, 65 duplication, 10, 65

E

Earth Science, 100 earth’s atmosphere, 10, 15, 67 electric field, 24, 70 electrical power, 38 electrical system, 84 energy, 15, 24, 50, 67, 70, 79, 82, 84, 88, 94 environment, vii, 3, 24, 62, 64, 70, 81, 84, 87, 88, 104 Environmental Information System, i, iii estimating, 2, 5, 25, 33, 48 estimators, 33 Executive Office of the President, 89 expert, iv expertise, 32

F failure, 6, 18, 35, 37, 40, 69, 75, 78 February, 20, 32, 37 federal government, 33, 48 fee, 73, 97 feedback, 103 flight, 37, 38, 40, 75, 78, 79, 94 flow, 50 forecasting, vii, 3, 7, 10, 15, 63, 65, 66, 67, 96 France, 87 fuel, 102 funding, 13, 16, 17, 22, 35, 37, 40, 61, 64, 66, 70, 72, 74, 81, 90, 91, 101, 103 funds, 13, 16, 40, 61, 64, 66, 72, 73, 101

G geophysical, 14, 66 Global Positioning System (GPS), 84, 102, 103 global warming, 81, 83, 84, 89, 91 goals, 48, 81 government, 4, 9, 29, 33, 34, 48, 49, 63, 75, 96, 97, 98 Government Accountability Office (GAO), GAO, 1, 2, 8, 9, 11, 13, 15, 19, 20, 22, 23, 26, 27, 34, 38, 39, 41, 42, 43, 47, 48, 51,

earth, 7, 8, 10, 15, 67, 84, 105

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Index 52, 59, 60, 61, 67, 71, 72, 77, 79, 85, 88, 90, 92, 93, 96, 94, 103 greed, 46 ground-based, 6, 13, 36, 41, 44, 74, 75, 76, 80 groups, 82 growth, 17, 35, 68, 80, 93 guidance, 96

H

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

handling, 40 health, 18, 33, 69, 84 hearing, 62, 96 height, 10, 15, 24, 67, 70, 85 high risk, 2, 36, 40, 44 hiring, 32, 46 host, 14, 68 House, v, 3, 61, 95 human, 6, 31, 45, 46, 48 human capital, 6, 31, 45, 46, 48 humans, 84 humidity, 10, 15, 67 hurricane, 96 Hurricane Katrina, 12 hurricanes, vii, 3, 7, 63, 65, 85

I ice, 83, 105 imagery, 3, 63 images, 7, 15, 51, 65, 67 imaging, 62, 64 inclusion, 21, 72 industry, 33, 38, 48, 96, 103, 106 information seeking, 38 Information Technology, 47 infrared, 2, 3, 15, 50, 62, 64, 67, 72, 75, 78, 88, 93, 94, 105 injury, iv insight, 30 inspections, 37, 40 Inspector General, 46, 60 instruments, 14, 15, 18, 19, 22, 66, 67, 69, 70, 71, 80, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 103

109

integration, 14, 26, 34, 37, 38, 41, 66, 70, 75, 79, 80, 99, 103 intelligence, 83 intensity, 7, 29, 65 interactions, 85 interface, 3, 41, 49, 74 Internet, 9 investment, 81, 91 IPO, 98, 99, 105, 106

J January, 2, 5, 18, 19, 20, 26, 27, 39, 44, 60, 69, 71, 76, 79, 82, 89, 94 justification, 35

K Katrina, 12 knowledge transfer, 46

L labor, 35 land, 10, 15, 24, 67, 70, 105 land use, 10 law, 17, 68, 93 lead, 5, 13, 29, 32, 36, 64, 66, 75, 90, 98, 99 leadership, 17, 31 life cycle, vii, 4, 5, 16, 33, 35, 47, 48, 71, 80, 93 lifecycle, 62, 64 lifetime, 99 likelihood, 40, 44 links, 15, 67 location, 10, 49 long-term, 9, 15, 62, 64, 67, 81, 84, 85, 89, 91, 96, 101 low risk, 40

M magnetic, iv

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

110

Index

management, vii, 1, 4, 5, 13, 16, 17, 18, 19, 24, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 34, 39, 40, 43, 44, 46, 47, 48, 49, 66, 69, 73, 80, 97, 98, 102 manufacturing, 14, 66 Maryland, 76 mask, 50 measurement, 84, 85, 100 measures, 24, 35, 50, 70, 97 meteorological, 7, 8, 65 metropolitan area, 4, 49 microwave, 2, 15, 38, 67, 72, 75, 79, 83, 88, 93, 94 migration, 105 military, 3, 9, 10, 17, 63, 66, 69, 83, 84 missions, 75, 78, 87, 90 modeling, 96 models, 7, 10, 15, 65, 67, 84 modules, 37, 40 moisture, 15, 24, 67, 70, 105 morning, 7, 18, 19, 69, 71 MPS, 40

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

N nation, 96 national, 17, 68, 89, 101 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), 3, 4, 6, 10, 13, 18, 20, 25, 27, 30, 37, 38, 44, 45, 47, 49, 51, 58, 60, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 69, 71, 73, 79, 81, 82, 85, 87, 89, 90, 91, 94, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 106 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), v, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 16, 18, 30, 32, 37, 46, 49, 62, 63, 64, 65, 69, 77, 80, 81, 82, 85, 87, 89, 90, 91, 94, 95, 96, 97, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 106 National Research Council (NRC), 82, 85, 94, 100 National Science Foundation, 94 national security, 17, 68 National Weather Service, 9 natural, 31, 85 Navy, v, 95

network, 9, 99 New York, iii, iv next generation, 104 NPP, 3, 6, 14, 16, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 26, 35, 36, 37, 38, 40, 43, 44, 60, 68, 69, 71, 72, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 82, 88, 90, 91, 94, 97, 98, 99, 101, 103, 106

O observations, 2, 6, 14, 45, 66, 81, 85, 90 oceans, 3, 10, 63 Office of Management and Budget (OMB), 47, 100, 103 Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), 89, 100, 102, 103 Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs, 47 orbit, 7, 18, 19, 34, 50, 64, 69, 71, 73, 75, 76, 102 organization, 73, 89 organizations, 13, 33, 45, 48, 81 oversight, 2, 5, 6, 7, 17, 28, 29, 31, 36, 44, 45, 46, 74, 80, 81, 96, 97, 98 Ozone, 3, 7, 10, 12, 15, 24, 65, 67, 70, 72, 75, 76, 79, 82, 84, 88, 93, 94, 98, 99, 100, 101, 105, 106

P packets, 49 particles, 15, 67 partnership, 103, 106 partnerships, 96 performance, 16, 26, 28, 29, 32, 42, 49, 76, 78, 80, 96, 97 planning, 31, 33, 81, 98, 99 platforms, 15, 67 play, 83, 96, 104 poor, 62, 64, 75, 80 power, 38, 69 precipitation, 24, 70 prediction, 7, 9, 15, 65, 67 prediction models, 7, 15, 65, 67

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

Index pressure, 15, 67, 105 priorities, 25, 62, 64, 81, 82, 91, 100, 104 production, 5, 28, 60, 79, 93, 106 program, vii, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 40, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 77, 79, 80, 81, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94, 96, 97, 98, 99, 100, 102 progress reports, 48 property, iv, 104 prototype, 37 public, 9

Q qualifications, 34

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

R radiation, 10, 15, 21, 24, 67, 70, 72, 83, 84, 87, 88, 100, 101, 105, 106 radio, 15, 67 rain, 15, 67 range, 10, 19, 71 real time, 8 reception, 99 reduction, 16, 75, 79, 97 refining, 2, 6, 80 regional, 9, 85 regular, 103 relationships, 29, 47 reliability, vii, 4, 6, 47, 48, 80 Republican, 3 research, 100, 106 researchers, 7, 65 reserves, 16 resolution, 103 resources, 39, 40, 76, 82, 97, 98 responsibilities, 5, 13, 25, 44 restructuring, vii, 1, 4, 5, 6, 25, 27, 44, 47, 48, 61, 62, 63, 64, 70, 81, 82, 90, 91, 98, 102

111

risk, 2, 4, 5, 7, 14, 20, 24, 28, 29, 31, 35, 36, 38, 40, 44, 46, 48, 49, 68, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 89, 91, 97, 98, 102 risk management, 29, 49 risks, vii, 2, 4, 6, 16, 25, 28, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 36, 38, 40, 43, 44, 46, 47, 48, 62, 63, 64, 74, 75, 78, 80, 90 roughness, 15, 67

S satellite, vii, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18, 20, 21, 24, 25, 26, 31, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 40, 41, 49, 50, 59, 60, 62, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 72, 73, 74, 75, 77, 79, 82, 88, 89, 91, 93, 96, 98, 101, 102, 103, 104, 106 scientists, 50 sea ice, 10 sea spray, 15, 67 search, 14, 66 Secretary of Commerce, v, 6, 45, 47, 73, 95 Secretary of Defense, 6, 17, 33, 45, 47, 48, 68, 104 security, 17, 62, 64, 68, 74, 80, 90, 94 selecting, 24, 62, 65, 70, 81 SEM, 98, 105 sensors, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8, 10, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 21, 24, 26, 33, 34, 35, 36, 38, 39, 44, 45, 50, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 77, 79, 80, 81, 82, 88, 89, 90, 91, 93, 94, 97, 99, 100, 101, 102, 103, 106 series, 7, 60, 65, 76, 93, 96 services, iv, 14, 44, 66 shortage, 28 short-term, 81, 82, 96 sign, 25 sites, 9, 34, 77, 105 smog, 15, 67 smoke, 15, 67 software, 76 soil, 15, 24, 67, 70 solar, 14, 15, 22, 24, 38, 66, 67, 70, 72, 81, 82, 84, 85, 88, 89, 100, 101, 102, 105

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.

112

Index

solutions, 82 space environment, 10, 24, 62, 64, 70, 81, 82, 88, 89, 91, 105 species, 105 speed, 15, 67, 83 stability, 78 staffing, 2, 4, 5, 28, 29, 31, 32, 34, 44, 46, 48 stages, 10 standards, 4, 49, 63, 80, 94 STM, 106 storage, 38 storms, 102 strategic, 81 strategic planning, 81 strategies, 98 summer, 44, 76 surface roughness, 15, 67 survivability, 14, 66 systems, vii, 2, 3, 6, 7, 14, 15, 20, 27, 30, 32, 34, 35, 36, 45, 62, 63, 64, 65, 67, 68, 73, 75, 84, 90, 99, 104

Copyright © 2009. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

T targets, 16, 39, 42 technology, 2, 13, 15, 66, 67, 72, 79, 84, 88, 93, 94 temperature, 10, 15, 24, 38, 40, 49, 50, 67, 70, 105 tenure, 31 term plans, 81 terminals, 8 testimony, 63, 91 threatening, 90 threats, 85 threshold, 17, 68 thresholds, 17, 68, 93 time, 2, 5, 6, 7, 10, 16, 17, 18, 25, 28, 34, 35, 36, 39, 40, 42, 44, 46, 47, 64, 74, 75, 77, 80, 82, 83, 90, 91, 98, 99, 101, 102

time frame, 2, 6, 36, 40, 44, 74, 80 tracking, 15, 21, 67, 72, 88, 96 trans, 49 transfer, 47 troubleshooting, 40 turbulence, 85 turnover, 31

U ultraviolet, 84 uncertainty, 33, 35 United States, v, vii, 1, 3, 7, 10, 61, 63, 65, 66 universities, 8

V vacancies, 31, 32, 48, 92 vacuum, 25, 75, 78 validation, 33, 35, 43, 50 validity, 33, 34 variability, 84 variance, 24, 39 vegetation, 10 velocity, 105 vibration, 6, 30, 37, 75, 78 visible, 3, 50, 105

W water, 15, 67 wavelengths, 10 weather prediction, 7, 9, 65, 96 White House, 106 White House Office, 106 wind, 15, 67, 83, 105 windows, 62, 65, 81, 89

Environmental Satellites : Weather and Environmental Information Systems, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2009.