Crisis Management in China: Challenges of the Transition (Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path) 9811687056, 9789811687051

Table of contents :
Series Preface
Foreword
Preface
Acknowledgements
Contents
1 Introduction: China’s Governance Reform and Crisis Management in Transition
1.1 A Global Perspective: Changing Forms of Crises Around the World
1.2 On China: Understanding Crises in the Transition Period
1.3 A Preliminary Study on the Characteristics and Causes of Crises in China
1.3.1 Characteristics of Crises in China in Transition
1.3.2 Analysis of the Causes of Crises in China in the Transition Period
1.3.3 Analysis of Society and Organizations
1.3.4 Analysis on Individual Behaviors
1.3.5 Urgent Need of a Crisis Management System
1.4 Research Framework
2 Basic Concepts: Crisis and Crisis Management
2.1 Forms of Crises
2.1.1 How to Define a Crisis
2.1.2 How to Categorize Crises
2.1.3 Causes of a Crisis
2.2 Crisis Management
2.2.1 How to Define Crisis Management
2.2.2 Crisis Management and Crisis Life Cycle
2.2.3 Framework for Crisis Management Analysis
3 Building a Modern Crisis Management System: Time Sequence Analysis
3.1 Early Warning and Preparation
3.1.1 How to Avoid a Crisis
3.1.2 Contingency Plan
3.1.3 System Building in Organizations
3.1.4 Simulation Drills
3.2 Crisis Identification
3.2.1 Information Search
3.3 Isolation
3.3.1 Principles of Choice
3.3.2 Crisis “Firewall”
3.3.3 Internal Operation of an Organization
3.4 Management
3.4.1 Principles for Human Resource Allocation
3.4.2 Real-Time Decision-Making
3.4.3 Media Communication
3.5 Post-crisis Management
3.5.1 Deal with the Aftermath
3.5.2 Independent Investigation System
3.5.3 Diagnosis of the Sequelae of a Crisis
3.5.4 Post-crisis Organizational Reform
4 Building a Modern Crisis Management System: Organizational Behavioral Analysis
4.1 Government Performance During Crisis
4.1.1 Crisis Management and Government Image
4.1.2 National Emergency Management Institution
4.1.3 Coordination Mechanism in Crisis Management
4.2 Media’s Role in a Crisis
4.2.1 Operation Logic and Social Function of The Media
4.2.2 Media Policy in Crisis Management
4.2.3 Establishment of Benign Relationships
4.3 Crisis Response Network
4.3.1 Government
4.3.2 Non-governmental organizations
4.3.3 For-Profit Organizations
4.3.4 General Public
4.3.5 International Resources
4.4 Legal Principles in Crisis Response
4.4.1 Legal Issues in a Crisis
4.4.2 Current Crisis-Related Legislation in China
4.4.3 Rule of Law and Crisis Management
5 Building a Modern Crisis Management System: An Analysis of the Decision-Making Process
5.1 Conventional Decision-Making and Crisis Decision-Making
5.1.1 Definition and Characteristics of Crisis Decision-Making
5.1.2 Conventional Decision-Making Versus Crisis Decision-Making
5.1.3 Stages of Crisis Decision-Making
5.2 Analysis of the Crisis Decision-Making Process
5.2.1 The Process of Crisis Decision-Making
5.3 Approaches
5.3.1 Quick Decision Analysis
5.3.2 Emergency Consulting with Experts
5.4 Current Status of Crisis Decision-Making in China and Suggestions for Improvement
5.4.1 Current Status of Crisis Decision-Making in China
5.4.2 Recommendations for Improvement
6 China’s Practices: Systems, Institutions and Case Studies
6.1 Analysis of the System: Management of the 1998 Floods
6.1.1 The 1998 Floods
6.1.2 Flood Control and Preparedness
6.1.3 Emergency Response
6.1.4 Post-disaster Relief
6.1.5 Post-disaster Reconstruction
6.1.6 Post-disaster Review and Summary
6.2 Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center
6.2.1 Background
6.2.2 City Emergency Response Systems in China
6.2.3 Development of Nanning’s Integrated Emergency Response System
6.2.4 Operational Mechanism
6.2.5 Performance
6.2.6 Problems and Countermeasures
6.3 A Case Study: The Nandan Incident
6.3.1 What Happened
6.3.2 Chronological Analysis
6.3.3 Organizational Behavior Analysis
Postscript
References

Citation preview

Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path

Lan Xue · Qiang Zhang · Kaibin Zhong

Crisis Management in China Challenges of the Transition

Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path Series Editors Yang Li, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China Peilin Li, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China

Drawing on a large body of empirical studies done over the last two decades, this Series provides its readers with in-depth analyses of the past and present and forecasts for the future course of China’s development. It contains the latest research results made by members of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. This series is an invaluable companion to every researcher who is trying to gain a deeper understanding of the development model, path and experience unique to China. Thanks to the adoption of Socialism with Chinese characteristics, and the implementation of comprehensive reform and opening-up, China has made tremendous achievements in areas such as political reform, economic development, and social construction, and is making great strides towards the realization of the Chinese dream of national rejuvenation. In addition to presenting a detailed account of many of these achievements, the authors also discuss what lessons other countries can learn from China’s experience. Project Director Shouguang Xie, President, Social Sciences Academic Press Academic Advisors Fang Cai, Peiyong Gao, Lin Li, Qiang Li, Huaide Ma, Jiahua Pan, Changhong Pei, Ye Qi, Lei Wang, Ming Wang, Yuyan Zhang, Yongnian Zheng, Hong Zhou

More information about this series at https://link.springer.com/bookseries/13571

Lan Xue · Qiang Zhang · Kaibin Zhong

Crisis Management in China Challenges of the Transition

Lan Xue School of Public Policy and Management Tsinghua University Beijing, China

Qiang Zhang School of Social Development and Public Policy Beijing Normal University Beijing, China

Kaibin Zhong National Institute of Emergency Management Chinese Academy of Governance Beijing, China Translated by Xiao Xiao Polished by Yue Ling

ISSN 2363-6866 ISSN 2363-6874 (electronic) Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path ISBN 978-981-16-8705-1 ISBN 978-981-16-8706-8 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-8706-8 Jointly published with Social Sciences Academic Press The print edition is not for sale in China (Mainland). Customers from China (Mainland) please order the print book from: Social Sciences Academic Press. Translation from the Chinese language edition: 危机管理 by Lan Xue, et al., © 社会科学文献出版社 2014. Published by 社会科学文献出版社. All Rights Reserved. © Social Sciences Academic Press 2022 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publishers, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publishers, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publishers nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publishers remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore

Series Preface

Since China’s reform and opening began in 1978, the country has come a long way on the path of Socialism with Chinese characteristics, under the leadership of the Communist Party of China. Over 30 years of reform, efforts and sustained spectacular economic growth have turned China into the world’s second largest economy and wrought many profound changes in the Chinese society. These historically significant developments have been garnering increasing attention from scholars, governments, and the general public alike around the world since the 1990s, when the newest wave of China studies began to gather steam. Some of the hottest topics have included the so-called China miracle, Chinese phenomenon, Chinese experience, Chinese path, and the Chinese model. Homegrown researchers have soon followed suit. Already hugely productive, this vibrant field is putting out a large number of books each year, with Social Sciences Academic Press alone having published hundreds of titles on a wide range of subjects. Because most of these books have been written and published in Chinese, however, readership has been limited outside China—even among many who study China—for whom English is still the lingua franca. This language barrier has been an impediment to efforts by academia, business communities, and policy-makers in other countries to form a thorough understanding of contemporary China, of what is distinct about China’s past and present may mean not only for her future but also for the future of the world. The need to remove such an impediment is both real and urgent, and the Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path is my answer to the call. This series features some of the most notable achievements from the last 20 years by scholars in China in a variety of research topics related to reform and opening. They include both theoretical explorations and empirical studies and cover economy, society, politics, law, culture, and ecology, the six areas in which reform and opening policies have had the deepest impact and farthest-reaching consequences for the country. Authors for the series have also tried to articulate their visions of the “Chinese Dream” and how the country can realize it in these fields and beyond. All of the editors and authors for the Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path are both longtime students of reform and opening and v

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recognized authorities in their respective academic fields. Their credentials and expertise lend credibility to these books, each of which having been subject to a rigorous peer review process for inclusion in the series. As part of the Reform and Development Program under the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film, and Television of the People’s Republic of China, the series is published by Springer, a Germany-based academic publisher of international repute, and distributed overseas. I am confident that it will help fill a lacuna in studies of China in the era of reform and opening. Shouguang Xie

Foreword

At present, China is in a critical period of its reform, opening up, and modernization. With the deepening of the reform and opening up and the rapid development of the socialist market economy, conflicts and problems are inevitable and could lead to crises of different degrees of seriousness. How to deal with these crises effectively is a pressing issue for the government. First, the changing forms of global crises have impacts that cannot be ignored. With the deepening of the reform and opening up, there are more extensive exchanges between China and the world. Any major economic, political, and cultural change in the international community can have an impact on China to a certain extent. Especially after the “9/11” attacks in 2001, some interest groups and organizations started to use nonmilitary means to launch nonconventional attacks on their opponents’ strategic objectives, which is a phenomenon that drew close attention from academia and military and security experts worldwide. At present, many countries around the world are studying security issues of the new era. Changes in the macrocontext will inevitably affect the theory and practice in China. Second, crisis management is needed to further deepen China’s institutional reform in the twenty-first century. Many theories support that in general, when a country has a per capita GDP between USD500 and USD3000, it is often in a bottleneck period when conflicts between population, resources, and environment and between efficiency and justice intensify and there is more likely to be social disorder, economic imbalance, mental imbalance, and other risks. At present, China is in the process of economic and social transformation, while the reform and opening up have also started to tackle deep-seated institutional problems, in addition to some problematic practices and working ethics that prevail in local governments. Therefore, judged from the fields, frequency, scale, and organization of its crisis incidents, China is currently in a crisis-prone stage with frequent mass incidents, security threats, illegal activities by underworld criminal gangs, and hostile individuals. Therefore, we must have a clear understanding of crisis management. Third, this is also an important part of our efforts to further improve the government’s administration functions and effectiveness. To change the functions of the government, we must radically change the administrative system, management style, vii

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and philosophy typical of a planned economy and to align gradually to the basic requirements of the market economy. The change of management concept and the transformation of government functions, coupled with the separation of social function from enterprises and public institutions, increase the government’s workload for the management of public affairs. Emergency response is now an important function of the government, as well as a major test of its governance capacity. Based on the above considerations, the building of a modern crisis management system is a highly meaningful topic to explore. To combine theory and practice and actively explore new ideas, new perspectives, and new strategies for government crisis management during the period of social transition is an important subject placed in front of administrators as well as researchers. For more than a year, under the leadership of Prof. Lan Xue, the crisis management research team of the School of Public Policy and Management of Tsinghua University not only closely followed and analyzed the changing forms of international crises in a timely manner but also conducted in-depth studies on crisis management in China. Their effort is highly meaningful for the research and practice of crisis management in China. Crisis Management in China: Challenges of the Transition contains the latest research findings in this field. This book presents the changes in the form of global crises after the 9/11 attacks in a systematic manner, explores the characteristics and issues of crises in a transitional Chinese society based on a large number of facts, and outlines the basic framework of a modern crisis management system from different perspectives by combining theories and practices. The publication of this book coincides with the closing of the Sixteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China. To build a modern crisis management system, to promote the transformation of government functions, and to improve public governance structure are in full compliance with the important thought of “Three Represents” and constitute an important part of our effort to promote China’s reform and modernization. I believe this book will have a positive impact on the actual transformation of government functions. February 2003

Shaoshi Xu Deputy Secretary General of the State Council Beijing, China

Preface

The impact and aftermath of the SARS pandemic. When this book was about to be published, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which first appeared in Guangdong, China, was plaguing many countries worldwide, turning into a crisis overnight. Therefore, we once again felt the huge impact of a crisis and the urgent need to establish a modern crisis management system in China. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), after the first outbreak in Guangdong, China, on November 16, 2002, SARS soon infected 300 people and caused five deaths. By April 11, 2003, up to 2781 people were infected and 111 died, a 4% fatality rate. It spread to 19 countries (Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Kuwait, Malaysia, Ireland, Romania, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Switzerland, Thailand, the UK, USA, and Vietnam) across five continents, accounting for 9.2% of the 206 countries (regions) worldwide. Compared to other infectious diseases in history, SARS features acute onset, rapid spread, high mortality, and strong impact. The rapid development of economic globalization has accelerated the spread of the disease. Based on its features, a crisis can be defined as a critical event that causes a severe threat to the basic value and code of conduct of a societal system and demands responses under the pressure of time and high uncertainty. The global spread of SARS is sudden and urgent in nature, as it directly endangers the lives and health of many people. The causes, development process, and possible consequences of this event are highly uncertain; coupled with notable information asymmetry, the global community is rocked by panic and fright, which has a great impact on economic development, cultural activities, and social stability. The central and local governments at all levels, home and abroad, directly face the need for nonprogrammed decision making under high pressure. Therefore, the outbreak of SARS is not only a global malignant infectious disease but also a typical crisis of society. According to the WHO, as of April 11, the infected areas in China (including Hong Kong and Taiwan) accounted for more than half of the global total infected area. China became the focus of public concern and inadvertently became the protagonist of the first global public health crisis in the twenty-first century. To date, the outbreak of ix

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SARS has seriously affected the economy of the region centered on Hong Kong and Guangdong, including the coastal areas of China and Southeast Asia. World Bank President Wolfensohn issued a warning on April 7 in Washington D.C., pointing out SARS’s impact on the world economy and expressing his concern. Due to the negative impact of SARS on tourism, catering industry, exports, and foreign direct investment (FDI), the world-famous investment bank Morgan Stanley forecasted on April 2 that the economic growth rate of Hong Kong, Taiwan, the Chinese mainland, and Asia on the whole (except Japan) would be down by 0.5, 0.6, 0.5, and 0.6% points, respectively; the long-term impact on the economy was unclear and would depend on how soon SARS could be effectively contained. SARS had a sudden external impact and was a major challenge to the new Chinese administration, which had been in power for less than a month. It was also a severe test of the government’s ability to handle a crisis. This crisis was special in nature, and its influence was far beyond the economic sphere. If not handled properly, this crisis would affect the international image of China and overseas Chinese communities, as well as the credibility of the Chinese government. Therefore, no effort should be spared to “observe calmly, respond with composure, and take initiative to defuse the crisis” according to the development of the domestic situation. By taking full advantage of the government’s strength domestically and being prudent and tactical when foreign parties are involved, we can maximally eliminate the negative effect caused by the incident, improve the credibility, and create a good image of the government. It should be noted, however, that actively and comprehensively handling the SARS crisis needs not only a public health emergency response system but also a series of institutional reforms in regard to public administration, including further transformation of government functions to ensure the smooth flow of information and improvement to the performance evaluation system. Fortunately, the government has realized that a public health crisis can no longer be handled with old knowledge and outdated experience in a context of globalization and diversified means of information acquisition and has begun to build its public health emergency response mechanism. Premier Wen Jiabao presided over an executive meeting of the State Council on April 14, and it was concluded at the meeting that to respond to public health emergencies and effectively protect the health and life of the people, the following principles should be observed to build and improve a response mechanism for national public health emergencies as soon as possible: The central government should carry out unified commands, while local governments take responsibility in a hierarchical manner; management should be based on laws to ensure a quick response; the monitoring system should be improved to build early warning capacity; and basic conditions should be bettered to ensure continuous operation. The State Council has adopted a series of policies and measures, such as timely report of epidemic information, public campaign of disease prevention knowledge dissemination via various media, and collaboration with the WHO’s global action. At present, the epidemic in Guangdong has been controlled. Apparently, the government has changed from passive response to active defense and from selective disclosure to timely and open communication. General health and epidemic prevention work is now “a pressing matter of the moment and the top priority among all priorities” for

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governments at all levels. This is the political advantage and institutional commitment we can leverage to tame SARS and to improve crisis management. In response to this SARS outbreak, our research team conducted a special study and quickly submitted our findings to the relevant administrative leaders. We will continue to closely monitor the development of the event and perform relevant research. We hope that the analytical framework and research findings provided in this book will help us better understand and respond more effectively to emergencies and establish and improve our modern crisis management system as soon as possible. Beijing, China April 2003

Lan Xue

Acknowledgements

After a relatively short gestation period, the Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path has started to bear fruits. We have, first and foremost, the books’ authors and editors to thank for making this possible. And it was the hard work by many people at Social Sciences Academic Press and Springer, the two collaborating publishers, that made it a reality. We are deeply grateful to all of them. Mr. Xie Shouguang, President of Social Sciences Academic Press (SSAP), is the mastermind behind the project. In addition to defining the key missions to be accomplished by it and setting down the basic parameters for the project’s execution, as the work has unfolded, Mr. Xie has provided critical input pertaining to its every aspect and at every step of the way. Thanks to the deft coordination by Ms. Li Yanling, all the constantly moving parts of the project, especially those on the SSAP side, are securely held together, and as well synchronized as is feasible for a project of this scale. Ms. Gao Jing, unfailingly diligent and meticulous, makes sure every aspect of each Chinese manuscript meets the highest standards for both publishers, something of critical importance to all subsequent steps in the publishing process. That highquality if also at times stylistically as well as technically challenging scholarly writing in Chinese has turned into decent, readable English that readers see on these pages is largely thanks to Ms. Liang Fan, who oversees translator recruitment and translation quality control. Ten other members of the SSAP staff have been intimately involved, primarily in the capacity of in-house editor, in the preparation of the Chinese manuscripts. It is time-consuming work that requires attention to details, and each of them has done this and is continuing to do this with superb skills. They are, in alphabetical order: Mr. Cai Jihui, Ms. Liu Xiaojun, Mr. Ren Wenwu, Ms. Shi Xiaolin, Ms. Song Yuehua, Mr. Tong Genxing, Ms. Wu Dan, Ms. Yao Dongmei, Ms. Yun Wei, and Ms. Zhou Qiong. In addition, Xie Shouguang and Li Yanling have also taken part in this work. Mr. Cao Yiheng is the SSAP in-house editor for the current volume. Our appreciation is also owed to Ms. Li Yan, Mr. Chai Ning, Ms. Wang Lei, and Ms. Xu Yi from Springer’s Beijing Representative Office. Their strong support for the SSAP team in various aspects of the project helped to make the latter’s work that much easier than it would have otherwise been. xiii

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Acknowledgements

We thank Ms. Xiao Xiao for translating this book and Ms. Yue Ling for her work as the polisher. Last, but certainly not least, it must be mentioned that funding for this project comes from the Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China. Our profound gratitude, if we can be forgiven for a bit of apophasis, goes without saying. Social Sciences Academic Press Springer

Contents

1 Introduction: China’s Governance Reform and Crisis Management in Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 A Global Perspective: Changing Forms of Crises Around the World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 On China: Understanding Crises in the Transition Period . . . . . . . . . 1.3 A Preliminary Study on the Characteristics and Causes of Crises in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.1 Characteristics of Crises in China in Transition . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.2 Analysis of the Causes of Crises in China in the Transition Period . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.3 Analysis of Society and Organizations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.4 Analysis on Individual Behaviors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.5 Urgent Need of a Crisis Management System . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 Research Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

11 11 17 19 21

2 Basic Concepts: Crisis and Crisis Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 Forms of Crises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.1 How to Define a Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.2 How to Categorize Crises . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.3 Causes of a Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Crisis Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1 How to Define Crisis Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2 Crisis Management and Crisis Life Cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.3 Framework for Crisis Management Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . .

23 24 24 29 32 37 37 39 41

3 Building a Modern Crisis Management System: Time Sequence Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 Early Warning and Preparation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1.1 How to Avoid a Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1.2 Contingency Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1.3 System Building in Organizations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1.4 Simulation Drills . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

45 46 46 49 49 50

1 2 5 9 9

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3.2 Crisis Identification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.1 Information Search . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 Isolation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.1 Principles of Choice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.2 Crisis “Firewall” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.3 Internal Operation of an Organization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4.1 Principles for Human Resource Allocation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4.2 Real-Time Decision-Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4.3 Media Communication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 Post-crisis Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5.1 Deal with the Aftermath . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5.2 Independent Investigation System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5.3 Diagnosis of the Sequelae of a Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5.4 Post-crisis Organizational Reform . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

51 51 55 55 57 59 60 60 61 62 62 63 65 66 68

4 Building a Modern Crisis Management System: Organizational Behavioral Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 Government Performance During Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.1 Crisis Management and Government Image . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.2 National Emergency Management Institution . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.3 Coordination Mechanism in Crisis Management . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 Media’s Role in a Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.1 Operation Logic and Social Function of The Media . . . . . . . 4.2.2 Media Policy in Crisis Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.3 Establishment of Benign Relationships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 Crisis Response Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.1 Government . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.2 Non-governmental organizations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.3 For-Profit Organizations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.4 General Public . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.5 International Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 Legal Principles in Crisis Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4.1 Legal Issues in a Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4.2 Current Crisis-Related Legislation in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4.3 Rule of Law and Crisis Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

71 71 72 78 83 85 85 87 91 94 94 95 97 101 102 104 105 107 110

5 Building a Modern Crisis Management System: An Analysis of the Decision-Making Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 Conventional Decision-Making and Crisis Decision-Making . . . . . . 5.1.1 Definition and Characteristics of Crisis Decision-Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.2 Conventional Decision-Making Versus Crisis Decision-Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.3 Stages of Crisis Decision-Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 Analysis of the Crisis Decision-Making Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Contents

5.2.1 The Process of Crisis Decision-Making . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 Approaches . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.1 Quick Decision Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.2 Emergency Consulting with Experts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 Current Status of Crisis Decision-Making in China and Suggestions for Improvement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4.1 Current Status of Crisis Decision-Making in China . . . . . . . . 5.4.2 Recommendations for Improvement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 China’s Practices: Systems, Institutions and Case Studies . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 Analysis of the System: Management of the 1998 Floods . . . . . . . . . 6.1.1 The 1998 Floods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.2 Flood Control and Preparedness . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.3 Emergency Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.4 Post-disaster Relief . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.5 Post-disaster Reconstruction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.6 Post-disaster Review and Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.2 City Emergency Response Systems in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.3 Development of Nanning’s Integrated Emergency Response System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.4 Operational Mechanism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.5 Performance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.6 Problems and Countermeasures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 A Case Study: The Nandan Incident . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.1 What Happened . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.2 Chronological Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.3 Organizational Behavior Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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125 127 127 128 131 131 135 139 139 140 140 142 147 148 149 150 150 151 153 154 160 163 170 170 171 175

Postscript . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183

Chapter 1

Introduction: China’s Governance Reform and Crisis Management in Transition

On September 11, 2001, at 8:48 (US local time), the United States suffered the deadliest attack since the founding of the nation. Two 110-storied towers in New York—the World Trade Center—were crashed by civil planes hijacked by terrorists and soon collapsed. At the same time, the Pentagon in Washington D.C. was also attacked by terrorists in the same way, and another hijacked plane crashed in Pittsburgh. In this series of sudden attacks, the United States suffered tremendous losses. The casualties reached 5219 (by September 30, 2001, Beijing time, based on data released by the New York City government).1 The 9/11 attacks also had a serious impact on the US economy. Since the crashes destroyed the World Trade Center complex and the Pentagon, which had been landmarks of the country, the incident changed the domestic state (lifestyle, society and political stance) of the nation and even the structure of international relations. Therefore, some people regard the 9/11 attacks as a milestone marking the end of the post-Cold War period (1989–2001). The incident is also a major test of the federal crisis management system of the United States. On the early morning of March 16, 2001, a series of bomb blasts took place in Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province. At 4:16 a.m., building No. 15 of the Miansan dormitory complex on Yucai Street, Chang’an District, lost its western wall in an explosion. Another explosion soon followed to bring down the entire building No. 16, leaving 93 people dead and 14 injured; at 4:30, Unit 3 of another dormitory building on Jianshe North Street, Chang’an District, was bombarded, resulting in five deaths and 20 injuries; at 4:45, Unit 1 of one more dormitory building on Dianda Street, Xinhua District, was blasted, resulting in 10 deaths and six injuries; at 5 o’clock or so, another explosion occurred in front of a two-storied residential building in Qiaodong District. Within just 44 min, the criminals created five explosions at different locations , killing a total of 108 people, injuring another 38, and causing tens of millions dollars

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Accounts of the 9/11 attacks in the article mainly come from special reports on www.msnbc.com; www.sina.com.cn and Phoenix TV; also see: Chen (2001), Editorial Board (2001). © Social Sciences Academic Press 2022 L. Xue et al., Crisis Management in China, Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-8706-8_1

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of property losses. The attacks were the largest mass murder by terrorist bombings in China, and the perpetrator posed a serious challenge to public safety.2 Although these two events are not comparable in terms of time, location, cause and influence, they are both crises where policy makers were suddenly faced with such a scenario: the essential values of society are threatened, uncertainty of the environment is heightened, and they need to respond within very limited time.3 Whether we want it or not, crises have become part of our life in a time when the international community is tumultuous and the domestic social structure is undergoing major changes. People who have lived in a time of peace and stability may not be able to fathom what impact a crisis may bring along and what influence it may have on social development. For the American people, who are accustomed to prosperity and freedom, the financial crisis, frequent local conflicts or even wars never dealt with blows as directly and brutally as the 9/11 attacks did on the political, economic and cultural aspects of the nation. Similarly, the bombings in China also brought unprecedented shock and panic to the residents of Shijiazhuang. As China is undergoing major changes in governance at all levels, these events make the Chinese ponder why these crises occurred and how to respond to them. Is China ready to deal with crises?

1.1 A Global Perspective: Changing Forms of Crises Around the World The 9/11 attacks prove that even the United States, widely believed to be the safest place of the world, could actually be the most dangerous place and that there is in fact no such place as a “paradise.“ It marks the end of the “post-Cold War era”, which began in 1990, as mankind is now faced with a new conflict and challenge that is even more unpredictable. Regarding international relations, the 9/11 attacks added to the political risk of globalization. After the Kosovo war, international tension eased, but the 9/11 attacks created a new round of turbulence in the international community. International relations have witnessed ups and downs in the post-Cold War era. There has been a decade of accelerated globalization as well as an increase in armed conflicts from four cases per year before the Cold War ended to 34.5 cases per year. Based on their causes, conflicts in the 1990s can be divided into five major categories: conflicts over territorial borders, conflicts over resources and interests, conflicts of national identity, partisan conflicts, and interventions for “human rights” reasons.4 The 9/11 attacks prompted the United States to carry out a considerable scale of retaliation in the near future and effectively promoted US dominance in the world. The “first war of the twenty-first century,” waged by the United States, seems unlikely to end soon. After the war in Afghanistan, the United States may take military actions against other 2

The narration on the Shijiazhuang bombings mainly comes from: Luo and Liu (2001). Sundelius et al. (1997). 4 Feng and Wang (2001). 3

1.1 A Global Perspective: Changing Forms of Crises Around the World

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countries where international terrorist organizations are based, thus prolonging and expanding the war to a scope beyond that of an ordinary local war. In particular, since the war took place in the border areas of Europe and Asia, it may extend eastward and westward, leading to greater social turmoil. Given that the United States has allies in the West and terrorist organizations are also present in many countries, this war may not expand into a world war but still can be global to a certain degree. All this will dictate a painful process before a stable new world order can be formed. In terms of economic development, the gap between the South and the North is still a prominent issue. According to the World Development Report 2000–2001, although living conditions improved much more in the twentieth century than ever before, income inequality and poverty have not fundamentally reduced. “The world has deep poverty amid plenty. Of the world’s 6 billion people, 2.8 billion—almost half—live on less than $2 a day, and 1.2 billion—a fifth—live on less than $1 a day.” “In East Asia, the number of people living on less than $1 a day fell from approximately 420 million to approximately 280 million between 1987 and 1998. However, in Latin America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa the numbers of poor people have been rising, and in countries of Europe and Central Asia in transition to market economies, the number of people living on less than $1 a day rose more than 20-fold.”5 As the famous political scientist Samuel Huntington puts it, in fact, modernity breeds stability, but modernization breeds instability…. It is not the absence of modernity but the efforts to achieve it which produce political disorder. If poor countries appear to be unstable, it is not because they are poor but because they are trying to become rich.6 Therefore, a changing society is more often inflicted by crises in the transitioning process of modernization. After the 9/11 attacks, the global economic downturn was more severe and extensive than originally estimated. The United States’ subsequent military actions against Afghanistan had a further impact on global economic activities and business confidence, which undermined the world economy even further. From the cultural perspective, economic globalization is also a process of cultural conflict. This cultural phenomenon is often manifested in two basic types: internal conflict, that is, conflict between a traditional and a new system of culture and governance within a nation, and external conflict, that is, conflict between national culture and foreign cultures. Our world today is in transition from a multicultural era to an era of a global civilization, and previous world civilizations are evolving into sub-civilizations of a pluralistic global civilization.7 Evil originates from civilizations but also opposes, tarnishes and destroys civilizations. Sigmund Freud talked about the relationship between civilization and anti-civilization long ago, pointing out that a civilized society would always be at the risk of a collapse. Civilization must do its best to contain the instinct to attack that originates from the animality of human beings and control its appearance by employing psychological defense mechanisms. The twenty-first century is a critical period for us to move towards a global 5

World Bank (2001). Huntington (1968). 7 Yu (2001). 6

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community through economic and political integration. Integration, disintegration, and anti-integration will form the main conflict of the world in the new century. The unipolarization move of the United States and the advancement of globalization have aggravated the clash of civilizations (culture, race, ethnicity), especially in the Muslim world. People suffer as their original way of life is overthrown by another, they are put under foreign, arbitrary, and corrupt governance, and they become very resentful. At the same time, extremists born out of fundamentalism and their political regimes are also pulling countries farther apart. In general, crises will still be inevitable for some time in the future during the adjustment of the overall world pattern. After the 9/11 attacks, the world has also seen new forms of crises. First, the form of crisis changes in various ways. Crises take diverse forms, occur in political, economic, cultural and other fields, last longer after the outbreak, and cause increasing losses and damage to the social, economic, and political order. In the political sphere, due to the radical advancement of the so-called “democratization” process, the inherent racial and social contradictions in many developing countries have intensified and caused frequent crises. For example, after Zaire adopted the multiparty system in 1990, as many as 300 political parties were founded. They advocated different political agendas and staged numerous anti-establishment mutinies. Other similar examples include the world-shocking South African Boipatong Massacre in 1992 (a massacre that involved 200 unidentified gunmen who invaded and opened fire in the town of Boipatong, south of Johannesburg, on June 17) and the Ciskei tragedy that followed not long after that (in September of the same year, the army opened fire at 100,000 demonstrators at the border of Ciskei; more than 200 people were killed or wounded). Meanwhile, crises ripple out to an unprecedented scope and go beyond control. For example, the leak from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant of the former Soviet Union caused nuclear pollution and had a huge impact on Western European countries, and local conflicts developed into more intense confrontations and turmoil due to the intervention of international forces. The Middle East and the former Yugoslavia also saw incessant and various conflicts over political, economic, territorial, and ethnic issues. Various crises also surge in the cultural sphere. Since the late 1960s, there has been a religious ardor worldwide. According to the International Bulletin of Missionary Research, as of 1997, the world’s religious believers accounted for 81% of the total population, almost the same proportion as 100 years ago. According to available statistics, there are more than 3,300 cults around the world, with tens of millions of followers in total. The United States, known as the “cult kingdom,” has more than 1000 cult organizations and has seen many world-shocking religious tragedies. There are 1317 fanatic sects in the 18 countries of Western and Southern Europe and 604 in the United Kingdom. A survey of the Intelligence Division of the French Ministry of the Interior shows that there are 173 cults in France, more than 40 of which are menacing groups. Spain has 200 devastating religious groups with approximately 10,000 believers. Cults have caused numerous deadly events, including the group self-immolation of 86 American believers of Branch Davidian in 1993, the Tokyo

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metro gas attack launched by Aum Shinrikyo in 1995, and the illegal and criminal activities organized by Falungong led by Li Hongzhi, which appeared in China just a few years ago. Second, what triggered the crisis often cannot fully explain why the crisis happened. Racial, economic, political and other factors intertwine and change quickly, and simply unsuccessful handling of some disasters or accidents may also summon different degrees of social crises. For example, in April 1992, Rodney King, an American young man of color, was beaten to death by four white police officers. When the media disclosed that the case was ruled with racial discrimination, the news caused violent conflicts that lasted three days and three nights in Los Angeles. The US federal government had to mobilize 3000 soldiers from the army, 1500 from the Marine Corps, 1000 law enforcement officers and thousands of national guards to quell the unrest. A few days later, this incident also affected neighboring Canada, triggering mass racial violence in Toronto on May 4. In the process of modernization, an unsound economic system may induce many events that directly endanger society as a whole. A typical case is the sudden collapse of the Suharto regime of Indonesia, which witnessed more than 30 years of rapid economic growth following the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis. The country was in total chaos, as its GDP fell by 20%. The astounding Chechen conflict reflected the tension over economic interests between the federal and local governments of Russia. Entering the twenty-first century, with technological progress, economic development and globalization, it is certain that the crises we face have a new dimension. Crises develop from our growing dependence on technology, the urbanization process, and the higher complexity of society and are more unexpected and urgent. They also evolve with greater uncertainty and rising social volatility, posing higher demand on our nonprogrammed decision-making capacity. Some scholars predict that the top threats people face in the twenty-first century are terrorism, the further deterioration of the existing technological catastrophe, the growing devastating power of natural disasters, security issues of physical systems and information systems, human errors (intentional and unintentional), and biochemical disasters.8

1.2 On China: Understanding Crises in the Transition Period China’s historic reform, which started in the late 1970s, has been ongoing for more than 20 years. During this period, China underwent multiple changes: from a ruralagricultural society to an urban-industrial society; from a planned economy to a market economy; from an enclosed and domestically oriented economy to an open and international economy; and from a political and administrative system based on the authority of an individual to a democratic and law-based governance system. Over the past 20 plus years, China has created a historic miracle of sustained economic 8

Claire (1999).

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growth, but at the same time, it is at a critical stage of reform, experiencing economic transition and social changes. According to the law of development in the world, China is currently at a period of the social development sequence where instabilities occur frequently. Specifically, when the per capita GDP of a country or region is between USD500 and USD3000, the tensions between population, resources and environment and between efficiency and equity are usually the most intense, and the pressure for economic imbalance, social disorder, mental issues, and ethical reconstruction is the heaviest. Therefore, giving top priority to stability carries special significance for China, especially in the next 30 years.9 Amid accelerated globalization, the cause and effect of a crisis are often at a global scale. Therefore, “in the face of crises, the response is similar worldwide even though there are regional and ideological differences.”10 The 9/11 attacks put forward a series of questions for us to ponder in relation to crisis management: How to deal with nontraditional threats? How can the situation be controlled and losses be reduced in the shortest time possible? How can communication be improved with the people to protect the nation’s long-term interests and the government’s credibility? These questions on emergency response constitute serious challenges that governments around the world face. While examining what the 9/11 attacks mean to the US government, in fact, we should think about this in the United States’ shoes. The 9/11 attacks not only tested the Bush administration’s emergency response capacity but also provided world leaders with an opportunity to reflect: how to deal with a crisis is a necessary lesson for nations, enterprises and individuals alike. Whether it is America’s excessive interference in the Middle East that caused the tragedy, the United States, by virtue of its military and economic capabilities, has other options that can help it move on still as a superpower. Could China have responded better than the United States? Since the world is still threatened by all kinds of looming crises, no country can keep itself in a “utopia.” Countries may encounter different challenges, such as large-scale power outages, earthquakes, storms, financial crises, and social turbulence. Governments, relevant organizations and individuals all need to know how to deal with these possible crises. Different emergency responses often have different outcomes. Good crisis management requires us to take appropriate measures within the golden time window to avoid or reduce the tangible and intangible losses caused by the crisis and enable the state, business or other organizations to return to normal operations as soon as possible. Therefore, all organizations and families should have a crisis management system and people well trained in this regard. Of course, the discussion here presents a broader perspective on the concept of crisis. Based on their initial causes, crises can be divided into two categories: unexpected events mainly caused by natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes, typhoons, and droughts or human behavior such as nuclear leakage, fire, and quality accidents. Governments responsible for public affairs management must bear the 9

Niu (2001). Stillman (1989, p. 184).

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responsibility of the chain reaction caused by unexpected events. The second is the social unrest and chaos caused by social conflicts and triggered by certain social problems, such as wars, violent confrontations, and terrorist attacks. Although the two categories have different features, studies have shown that they share many things in common. In reality, in certain external conditions, unexpected events will grow further into crises.11 Therefore, in this paper, we use crises to refer to both categories. For a country, no matter which stage of development it is at, no matter what ideology it upholds, social stability is the fundamental guarantee for it to maintain orderly operation in the framework of reform, development and stability. For China, we must first have the courage to face crises. We have been unable to use the word “crisis” to refer to challenges that the country faces. Even in academia, as Wu Guoguang pointed out, there is the so-called “dualistic language,” that is, a split between the official language and daily language. People use “fake language” to talk about “false problems,” which will only widen the gap between the public and the political and intellectual elites and increase doubt.12 Takizawa Masao, a Japanese expert in crisis management, defines crisis as the possibility of an accident. Since crisis management is the management of losses, it is important to achieve the best results with the least expenses.13 Having experienced the Kobe earthquake and the Tokyo subway nerve gas attack, Takizawa Masao believes that with sound preparation, it is not impossible to prevent the occurrence or spread of a disaster. If quakeproof measures can be incorporated into the construction of buildings, the casualty can be reduced when an earthquake does hit. Financial scandals are often the cumulative consequences of various long-term hidden flaws. If the staff are expected to abide by sound moral principles, it is possible to prevent such incidents. If natural disasters are inevitable and human mistakes are also unavoidable, then what can be done is to save against a rainy day. From a philosophical point of view, a crisis is not necessarily a bad thing because it often represents an opportunity and probably heralds a turning point. As the saying goes, “misfortune may be a blessing in disguise.” Crises can serve as the gauge of public security, and the relevant mechanism can be illustrated as follows: Through crises, society can adapt itself to a new situation. A resilient society benefits from confrontations because confrontations help establish and improve norms and ensure that such norms will survive under changing conditions; a rigid social system does not allow any conflict, does everything possible to prevent necessary adjustments, and thus maximizes the risk of catastrophes.14 One of the major lessons that Chinese history has taught us on governance is that a great ruler in safety will not neglect the possibility of danger; living in security will not forget lessons of being subjugated; in prevailing stability, he won’t overlook potential social unrest. As proposed at the central economic work conference in 2002, it is better to prepare for difficulties and challenges that are more serious than what 11

Waugh (2000). He and Wang (2002). 13 Takizawa (1999). 14 Coser (1956, p. 114). 12

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is in the most likely scenario to avoid passive responses and to hold an invincible position. The occurrence of a crisis is actually a process where the social system goes from order to disorder, the disorder accumulates, and ultimately reaches the tipping point for a crisis. Therefore, it would be unwise to deny the fact that there are crises in the making in China today. As we study the 9/11 attacks, we should not only see the implication of changing international relations but also try to stand in the United States’ shoes in light of China’s actual situation. To correctly understand the nature and status of a crisis, we should take into account the threat and striking changes brought about by extremist individuals or organizations to our national security and social stability, as well as the current situation of China’s development. Of course, the most important is to learn from previous incidents and to think deeply about the building of China’s crisis management system with reference to the practical experience of crisis management in Europe and the United States. Regarding their causes, crises are basically the intensified collective manifestation of hidden conflicts and problems in society. Alternatively, the unusual or extreme measures adopted by confronting parties to urge governments to solve unexpected challenges or issues that have long remained unsolved. To handle unexpected events in an effective, timely and peaceful manner in China as its society is in transition has become a major challenge and key agenda for governments at all levels. How governments, as ruling bodies in charge of social and public affairs, manage social crises affects their public image as well as the nation’s political and economic stability and development, which is relevant to the survival of the regime. In nature, current crises in China are mostly nonpolitical. They mainly aim to defend civil rights and interests, fight for care for the disadvantaged, and seek social equality.15 There may also be certain political purposes or the motivation to seek gains for some social interest groups. The existence of crises poses challenges to every society and governance system. Although Chinese society is relatively stable right not and major and widespread political strife is unlikely to happen, the possibility of unexpected local incidents cannot be excluded, and the “worst” scenario is not totally impossible either. Thus, social stability and political stability should be the top priority.16 According to our analysis, the occurrence of crises in China is closely related to the flaws in the systems currently in place in the country, which involve the overall social conditions, the operation of various organizations, and channels for individuals to vent. Crises pose the most direct threat to social stability and seriously challenge the legitimacy and image of the government. If a government is not able to effectively prevent and control crises or address the plight caused by them in a timely manner, the government will lose the ground to achieve its goals in social development and even put its own ruling power at stake. Therefore, crisis management is clearly a comprehensive evaluation of a government’s management capacity and efficiency 15

The definition of the nature of the current emergencies has further clarified in the presentations of the attending experts and scholars at the seminar “Governmental responses to public emergencies” organized by the Chinese Academy of Administrative Sciences on April 3, 2000. 16 For related discussions, see Wang et al. (2002), Kang (2002).

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or a major way to assess and reflect its ruling power. It is not only a government’s strategic task but also an important component of its daily management. Moreover, emergency response concerns not only the outcome of individual events but also the realization of long-term stability.

1.3 A Preliminary Study on the Characteristics and Causes of Crises in China 1.3.1 Characteristics of Crises in China in Transition According to our observation, the main characteristics of crises in China in transition are as follows17 :

1.3.1.1

Crises Involve Various Sectors

Since the 1990s, China has seen not only several major natural disasters but also different degrees of crises in political, economic and social sectors amid social transformation. In the economic sector, mass incidents occur from time to time due to the reform of state-owned enterprises that has not yet been completed, the underdevelopment of rural areas, unsatisfactory relocation arrangements, and various other factors. In the political sector, with ill-defined government functions in the transition period and serious corruption and duty neglect among government officials, large cases with large names, such as Xiamen Yuanhua, Chen Xitong, Hu Changqing and Mu Suixin, have seriously affected the credibility of the Party and the government among the general public. At the same time, some judicial institutions abused their power and caused intensified social conflicts, resulting in violent attacks in Urumqi and other places. In addition, the increasing wealth inequality, loose economic governance procedures, and people’s unsettling minds easily instigate vicious incidents such as the Shijiazhuang bombing once there is a loophole in public security management. In the international arena, the bombing of Chinese embassy in the former Yugoslavia, the China-US aircraft collision and other similar incidents are all signs that China may face all kinds of diplomatic crises.

17

Due to the incomplete, non-transparent and undisclosed information regarding major social problems, coupled with the relevant departments of the central and local authorities, whose deliberate “deception” even with clear pictures of the real situations. It is difficult for researchers to obtain the first-hand data, and the increasingly serious social crisis brought about by economic prosperity is often concealed in the “peaceful and prosperous” propaganda promoted by the media. Some of the cases mentioned below came from online media reports, which have been assessed and confirmed to a certain extent by relevant authorities.

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1.3.1.2

Higher Frequency and Larger Scale

In 2001, China saw many serious safety accidents, especially several major mine accidents. The repeated occurrences of the same type of accidents, to a certain extent, cast shadow over society, the economy, and people’s lives. At the same time, the number of serious public security cases was on the rise, and regional vicious groups grew. In addition, in recent years, some mass conflicts have seen more participants as well as more victims.

1.3.1.3

Crises Are Better Organized, More Violent, and Cause More Damage

According to letters and visit authorities, in recent years, the majority of mass incidents have been planned, incited and organized, which is especially true for largerscale mass incidents. More organized than before, mass incidents tend to be continuous and repetitive, and they also cause more chaos, have a greater scale, and involve more severe confrontations. It is quite common for people to resort to violent means to get the results they want, for they believe how seriously an issue is taken and how satisfactorily it is settled often depends on how far they go in their violence: the further they go, the greater they get, and if they do nothing, they got nothing. It is also common for people to play things up purposefully during major festivals or political activities.

1.3.1.4

Crises Tend to Involve More Countries

With the progress of globalization, crises have become transnational. On the one hand, extremist individuals and organizations within China may collude with international powers; on the other hand, with the steady development of China, overseas Chinese have become the target of terrorists, and their safety is threatened. Recent kidnapping in the Philippines is a typical case that poses a greater challenge to crisis management. Of course, from the perspective of international relations and national security, China is the converging point of many fundamental contradictions: unipolarization versus multipolarization, North vs. South, ethnic and religious conflicts, the new East–West confrontation, and the two systems. Therefore, the overall security of the country is vulnerable to some extent.18 Of course, the focus of this study is not on the complex changes of diplomatic relations between political and economic entities but on the organizational response to crises.

18

Meng (2001).

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11

Table 1.1 Social issues in the society-organization-individual framework Level

Field

Example

Society

Nature

Environmental pollution, natural disasters, infectious diseases

Economy

Unemployment, rich-poor gap, rural development problems, international economic frictions

Political system

Societal stratification, corruption, political legitimacy crisis, new public management and marketization, contradictions between globalization and the rule of law, organized crime

Culture

Religious crisis (cult) deterioration of public order (cyber crime)

Public administration (government and NGO)

As a similar topic with the previous discussion, economic organizations and NGO will not be analyzed here. We focus on the nature and the extent of the impact of the crises

Organizational operation

Economic organization

Individual

Individual behavior and psychology

Social dissatisfaction level

1.3.2 Analysis of the Causes of Crises in China in the Transition Period To analyze what causes the frequent crises in China, we follow the line of society, organizations, and individuals. Society is analyzed from political, economic and cultural perspectives. Since China is a government-led society, the analysis of organizations involves mainly government bodies and is set in the context of China’s political system. For individuals, our analysis will be based on frustration-aggression theory and J-curve theory to describe the current dissatisfaction and resent level in our society and to outline the possible paths leading to crises. It is worth noting that the discussion here is more focused on the “combustible materials” that bring about crises, while the “combustion enhancers” are discussed on the basis of profound social and economic changes (Table 1.1).

1.3.3 Analysis of Society and Organizations This section includes discussions in three aspects: economic development, political system, and culture.

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1.3.3.1

1 Introduction: China’s Governance Reform …

Unbalanced Economic Development

Since the reform was launched in China, especially since the late 1990s, the distribution of social income in China has undergone significant changes, turning from shared growth to partially benefiting growth and from a nonzero-sum game to a zero-sum game for the entire population.19 Competition for economic interests is common between individuals, between individuals and groups, and between countries. In a gradually maturing market, the agglomeration effect of the capital market intensifies, and the wealth gap between rapidly widens between regions and between individuals. First, the income gap between urban and rural residents has been expanding, as have the level and accessibility of public services. Farmers’ incomes from agricultural activities dropped drastically due to the decline in produce prices for four consecutive years (by 22% accumulatively), worth approximately USD 300–400 billion.20 At the same time, the growing tax burden on farmers has severely dragged down their wellbeing. Moreover, ongoing poverty alleviation efforts are not very effective, as they are mostly government-led and carried out in overly simplified manners with low standards. The rural poverty line in 1999 was an annual income of RMB625 per capita, much lower than the criterion of USD1 a day proposed by the World Bank. The standard for the proportion of food consumption, i.e., the Engel coefficient is set at approximately 80%, far higher than the international standard of 60%. These standards satisfy only the minimum living needs. Even if one earns more than this, it will still me hard for him/her to survive. With such low standards in place, people who have had their basic needs for food and clothing met can very easily fall back below the poverty line. According to a rural household survey, up to 30% of the rural people who were once lifted out of poverty sank back below the line later.21 Second, the imbalance in regional development further expands as the polarization index reaches a record high.22 In 2000, the per capita income of East China was 2.26 times that of West China, and the highest provincial per capita income was more than three times higher than the lowest. Moreover, when data are averaged out, the real gap is partly covered up. In fact, 22.8% of all Chinese counties still lie below

19

Wang et al. (2002). Chen and Zhou (2001). 21 This is calculated based on the data of rural household surveys in the National Rural Poverty Monitoring Report released in 2001 by the National Bureau of Statistics. See: Three Rural Issues: Chinese People Blue Book. Beijing Youth Daily, 2002–09-09. 22 For example, a survey conducted by the National Science and Technology Commission from 1991 to 1993 shows that only 56% of the funds for poverty alleviation loans were repaid, and the repayment rate of enterprises was as low as 40%. In 1997, Yunnan loan repayment rate was only 39%, and the number of outstanding loans accounted for more than 100% of new loans. In many places, the proportion of bad debts was as high as 80%. According to the recent news of the Audit Office of the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, of the funds to assist the 30 poverty-stricken counties in 1998 and 1999, 166 million yuan were misappropriated and used to build office buildings, purchase cars, or utilized by the relevant local departments on prolonged stagnant or unauthorized projects. 20

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13

the line for Wenbao, 86% of the counties are under the line for moderate prosperity, and the difference between the poorest 5% and the richest 5% of all counties is 16.4 times.23 The significant increase in the Gini coefficient indicates that China is seeing one of the widest income gaps in the world. According to calculations by Chen Zongsheng of Nankai Institute of Economics based on data published by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s Gini coefficient rises from 0.35 in 1988 to 0.40 in 1997, and when tax evasion, corruption, coverage by institutional spending and other illegal income are all included, the actual Gini coefficient increases from 0.42 to 0.49.24 At present, China’s actual Gini coefficient is above 0.50, which is much higher than the widely accepted stability level of 0.40.25 According to a 1999 survey, the richest 20% of all households own 42% of the total income of society, and the poorest 20% hold only 6.5%. Third, in the international context, the coexistence of and conflict between the existing order and the new order in the making creates great structural tension in the global economic landscape. Despite these potential concerns brought about by human activities in the process of economic development, tensions between man and nature also constitute a bottleneck of economic growth and the basic combustible material that causes social instability.26 China, as a large developing country, faces enormous pressure for the survival of its people with scarce proven resource reserves and serious environmental pollution. These factors all added to the structural tension that accompanies imbalances in economic development. This is another issue of great concern.

1.3.3.2

A Political System in Need of Deepened Reform

Over the past 20 years, China’s reform has brought about rapid economic development. However, many complicated economic problems are found to stem from noneconomic areas. Institutional flaws are manifested in many aspects, such as the vicious expansion of power capital, the further division between social classes, the aggravating inequality of power, defects in the constitutional system, the proliferation of judicial corruption, the abuse of administrative power, the distortion of censorship, and malignant lesions in basic-level administration.27 Dramatic changes in the social structure and delays in the reform of the political system interplay distort the traditional power structure and collapse old authorities. This has weakened the government’s initiative and ability to keep the overall situation under control, solve contradictions and conflicts, and fight corruption. These are the institutional causes of crises. 23

See Wang and Cui (2001). Yu (2002). 25 Wang et al. (2002). 26 Niu (2001). 27 For details, see Liu (1999). 24

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First, in the political sphere, the performance-based legitimacy of a government administration is time-bound and has limitations. Although democratic elections have been promoted as the main channel for the general public to express their opinions and, to a certain extent, have eased the political pressure on the government, universal election applies only at the village level, not to the people’s congress, and the channel may be blocked to some extent. Judicial independence and justice are still in need of effective institutional support. The corruption of government officials and judicial personnel has become a very serious political issue. In the economic sphere, the government is gradually changing its role from direct control to regulation to maintain good order. However, in practice, departmental and industrial interests still play a dominant role that they are actually in no position to play. In the regulatory reform of the telecommunications and aviation industries, “visible hands” are frequently seen over the “invisible hand.” Although hearings are about to be held for the adjustment of railway fares, telecommunications tariffs, and air fares, among other things, real improvement is still pending. The social unrests caused by rural tax reform, stateowned enterprise restructuring and fundamental changes in the social security system are even more astonishing. Second, the challenges and opportunities brought about by the development of information technology have also had a profound impact on the performance of public administration and the fundamental democratic system of China. Starting in the 1950s, the information technology revolution, led by computers, microelectronics, modern communications technology and the Internet, swept across the entire world and brought human society into the information age. China has also seen rapid IT development and wider IT application in the field of public administration. In 1999, China launched a giant project to get its government bodies connected to the Internet, and e-government was among the priorities on the agenda. Such an information environment changes the way people interact with the government. Thus, there is a much greater demand for political participation and the expression of interest, especially given that our traditional news media agencies were old-fashioned and lacked transparency, adding to the possibility of a “participation explosion.” Third, the rise of the market economy had an impact on the nature of public administration, and globalization exerted an influence on the scope and structure of public administration. In the 1970s, public administration in many developed and developing countries experienced a massive market-oriented reform featuring deregulation, privatization and liberalization. From the large-scale privatization movement under Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s to the government reinvention of the ClintonGore administration in the 1990s, this market-oriented reform has had far-reaching impact never been seen before. However, in the eyes of many scholars in the field, this massive market-oriented reform poses a serious challenge to the nature of public administration,28 especially that of China, where a market economy is still in the making. Seeing foreign examples, various social groups in China started to question the administration and services of the existing government, especially in regard to the

28

Xue et al. (2002).

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15

exclusivity of public administration, the scope of services, the accountability system (hearing system, grievance procedures, responsibility system, etc.), and credibility. Globalization is one of the most important trends in human society today. The relationship between national sovereignty and interests and global public interests becomes more complex, as does the relationship between national public administration capacity and global governance capacity. As a country with a sizable population, a long history, and great cultural diversity, China has to face the inevitable questions of how to effectively safeguard the sovereignty of the nation and the state, how to protect the interests of the people, how to participate in the global administration system while respecting the sovereignty of all countries, and how to ensure coordination between national interests and the common interests of mankind. These are also questions raising extensive public concern and how the current administration will address them will directly affect public opinion concerning the administration’s governance capacity and affect overall social stability. Fourth, we also need to focus on the rule of law. The rule of law is an important foundation for a sound social system that can withstand impacts. However, there are flaws in China’s legislative and judicial processes. On the legislation side, there are “informal rules.” Since there is no clear division of legislative power among the National People’s Congress, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress and the State Council, these legislative bodies have not been able to define the scope of their respective powers but only to rely on informal rules, such as conventions and traditions, for coordination. The complexity and arbitrariness of the legislative process will only exacerbate the “informality” of our politics: nondivision of the Party and the government, the Party’s substitution of the government, and the personification of the ruling power.29 At the same time, since the current judiciary jurisdictions are divided in the same way as administrative divisions, local people’s courts fall under the leadership of local governments at the same level and depend on the local governments for human, financial and other resources. Such a relationship has resulted in a serious localization tendency in the judicial system in practice. This gives rise to local protectionism, seriously hampers fair competition and the establishment and improvement of an orderly and standardized market economy system. It also affects the judicial body’s supervision and control over administrative power and thus makes judicial corruption more likely to happen. It is noteworthy that administrative and judicial corruption together bring another problem that cannot be ignored: China’s criminal gangs are growing fast.30

29

Han (2001). On March 18, 2002, the first international summit of public safety chiefs after 9/11 was held in Hong Kong. At the meeting, Zhang Xinfeng, director of the Crime Investigation Bureau of the Ministry of Public Security of China, remarked that China’s underworld organizations were thriving and spreading, seriously jeopardizing social security and stability. For details, please see: Insight into the rapid development of the Chinese underworld organization. Southern Weekly, 2002-03-29.

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1.3.3.3

A Shaken-Up Traditional Cultural and Moral System

Culture is deeply rooted in society and serves as the last line of defense against all kinds of conflicts in human society. Thus, cultural conflicts, as causes of strife and crises, are far more deeply rooted and persistent than other causes.31 After bearing blows dealt with the development of the Western world and after several cultural reforms since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the role of traditional Confucianism has gradually weakened, and a faith crisis has emerged in China to some extent. With rapid socioeconomic development, underdeveloped education, shaken-up moral and ethical systems, and widespread corruption greatly undermined the moral foundation in the country. The lifestyle of the Internet age seriously affected the traditional moral system and gave rise to moral nihilism. A serious lack of and deviation from moral rules, rapid social structural changes and accelerated development of science and technology left people with many more choices but a void of guidance and criteria to rely on. The disarray of old norms in a drastically changing society also caused serious deviations in how people are gent about living their lives. Shaken-up cultural and moral systems also manifest in organizations. When an organization has no proper organizational structure, organizational culture, management system or effective decision-makers, potential crises will take root. Since the market system is still in the making in China, we have not yet put in place a sound corporate governance structure, and our public administration is also underdeveloped with the first Master of Public Administration (MPA) program not launched until 2001. The shift from a traditional government to a professional government administration has only just started. The outlook of public administration studies is promising yet still has a long way to go. Both opportunities and challenges derive from the actual problems and conflicts in China’s reform and development process and the demand and motivation created thereby; they also rise from advances in science and technology as well as changes and trends in the international community and the global landscape.32 The challenges to our public administration system and the practical responses delivered by the government will be the substantial factors that truly drive the formation and evolution of crises. Since things are mostly led by the government in China, we will discuss only the role of the government here, without particular and detailed discussion on economic organizations and NGOs, which, of course, are important in crisis management and will be touched upon in later chapters. Within the scope of government administration, there are also a wide range of factors that may cause crises. An ineffective performance-based management system and noninstitutional departmental relations, for example, can be seen clearly in a number of mine disasters represented by the one in Nandan. These issues must be resolved before a sound organization and management system can be erected. As the fundamental factors in these have been discussed earlier, we will wait until later chapters to discuss them in detail. 31 32

Hu (1999, p. 1191). Xue et al. (2002).

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Table 1.2 Types of crises in China Type

Causes

Natural disasters

Damaged environment, widespread Environmental pollution, natural diseases, and various sudden-onset disasters, unexpected major public of natural forces health and public transport incidents

Unbalanced interests

Unbalanced economic development and the defects of social security system

Strike, collective petition, sit-in, demonstration, rally

Power alienation

Failure of government power system, such as corruption and flawed law enforcement

Collective petition, demonstration, violent confrontation against law enforcement, criminal offense

Ideological conflicts

Alienation of ideology in such fields as religion and national identity

Large-scale mass conflict, obstruction of public service and criminal offense

International relations Related to China’s move in the international arena

Manifestations

Tension between countries, economic sanction, and even regional war

What we have mentioned above are the factors that may cause crises at the society or organization level based on the current conditions in China. These factors, for some time to come, will possibly develop into inevitable crises in all aspects (see Table 1.2 for the specific categories of crises based on underlying causes33 and studies in China in a transition). Based on the abovementioned underlying causes, we can say that crises are basically the intensified manifestation of a collection of hidden conflicts and problems in society or the unusual or extreme measures adopted by the confronting parties to urge the government to solve unexpected challenges or longstanding problems. As mentioned above, crises in China today are mainly nonpolitical in nature and aimed to defend civil rights and interests, to support disadvantaged groups and to seek social equity. However, it is still possible that there are some political purposes or intentions to seek gains for certain social interest groups.

1.3.4 Analysis on Individual Behaviors We work on the individual level because the psychological model of an individual constitutes an important basis for mass behavior that causes instability. Moreover, the rapid development of science and technology and the rallying power of the Internet greatly improve an individual’s ability to take concrete action. In addition, 33

There are many studies on the causes of the crisis; these studies are mainly based on the assumption of human nature. One is the theory stress the “incidental” nature of the crisis (Gurr, 1971), and the other theory more on the inherent characteristics of crisis (Tilly, 1978). The conclusions here are drawn from observations and discussions with the comrades who are actually responsible for such work.

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the degree of damage and influence of a crisis depends more or less on the mental quality and disposing capacity of the participants of the crisis. Based on frustrationaggression theory and the J curve, this paper focuses on people’s satisfaction level with the present situations in China to analyze the causes of crises in China. People’s level of satisfaction with their living conditions directly affects their judgment on social stability and the channel they choose to express their needs, which naturally has implications on the occurrence of a crisis and on social stability.34 To examine the behavioral psychology of individuals, we follow this logic. First, we examine how stable people believe society to be in general, which can be used to modify the results of the macrostructural analysis above. Next, we examine the satisfaction level of individuals in different groups, which can be used to locate the source of crises developed from the behavioral psychology of individuals (according to a survey of the China social stability research project, the subjective satisfaction level of individuals is positively correlated to their perceived social stability level). Then, we check the channels currently available for people to vent their dissatisfaction. If there are good channels for individuals to express their needs, then conflicts and factors of instability can be eased and a crisis avoided. In contrast, if people have to keep their dissatisfaction in because of the lack of normal vents, behaviors outside of social norms will be likely. According to the China Social Stability Research Project, urban residents believe that the five major influencing factors (or issues) of social stability in 2000 and 2001 were unemployment, corruption, wealth gap, deteriorated moral standards and worsened public security, while the five issues concerning rural residents were excessive burden for farmers, corruption and bureaucracy, wealth gap, deteriorated moral standards, and the increase in laid-off workers and unemployment. Surveys conducted by the Commission for Discipline Inspection of the CPC Central Committee for six consecutive years since 1996 show that the top concern of the general public was inflation in 1996, corruption from 1997 to 2000, and unemployment and employment, followed by corruption, in 2001. A survey on prefectural/bureau-level officials conducted by the Party School of the Central Commission of the CPC shows similar results. The five top concerns of 2000 were corruption, state-owned enterprises, income gap, unemployment, and farmers’ burden, and corruption remained the No. 1 problem in 2001.35 These results are highly consistent with what our analysis at the social/organizational level shows (see Table 1.1), and this consistency proves the connection between different organizational levels and the validity of our perspective. How is the satisfaction level of individuals? According to the survey of the China Social Stability Research Project on Urban Residents in 2000, up to 22%, or more than one-fifth, of the population, which may amount to approximately 100 million people, was dissatisfied with their lives (including those who responded “not very satisfied” and those who selected “not satisfied”). Over three consecutive years, the overall satisfaction level remained basically the same. Every year, approximately 55% of the population is satisfied, while approximately 45%, or approximately 200 34 35

For the rationale, see Wang et al. (2002), Kang (2002). Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (2002, p. 38).

1.3 A Preliminary Study on the Characteristics …

19

million people, express dissatisfaction. Among them, 7–8%, or approximately 32 million to 36 million people, are very dissatisfied. According to a survey of 10 cities conducted by the Horizon Research Consultancy Group in 2000, up to 26.7% of the sample population expressed dissatisfaction with life (selecting “dissatisfied” or “very dissatisfied” as their response), and the figure rose to 33.6% in 2001, which is approximately one-third of the population or approximately 150 million urban residents across the country. At the same time, the population that is satisfied with urban life (choosing “very satisfied” or “satisfied” as their answer) also increased from 55.5 to 63.4%, a “bimodal distribution” where the shares of both satisfaction and dissatisfaction grew. This is consistent with what has happened in China in the process of its reforms. For specific groups, in terms of employment, laid-off workers are the most dissatisfied with their living conditions, while the majority of the employed are satisfied. Approximately 70% of the unemployed population in 1999 and nearly 50% in 2000 are not satisfied. In terms of income level, low-income groups, especially those whose annual income is under RMB 3,000, are the most dissatisfied. In terms of income change, those whose income levels decreased were the most dissatisfied. Specifically, two-thirds of this group in 1999 and half of it in 2000 were dissatisfied. By age group, middle-aged adults (31–50 years old) are the least satisfied with their life. By occupation, laid-off workers and unskilled workers have the lowest satisfaction level. By educational background, junior high school or senior high school graduates have the lowest satisfaction level. From the data above, we can see that although more people are satisfied with life, the absolute number of people who are not satisfied is still large, mostly disadvantaged people such as laid-off workers, people with low or lowering income, and those less educated. As competition intensifies and the social security system remains incomplete, these people are likely to be further marginalized. Actually, these groups of people are the underclass in society not only economically but also politically, as shown in our previous discussion on social stratification. Seeing no hope for a change, with the media under government control, and facing a lack of noninstitutional channels to voice their dissatisfaction, these resentful individuals tend to become the “burning materials” that may burn down social stability, and when instigated by emergencies, they will perhaps initiate devastating incidents.

1.3.5 Urgent Need of a Crisis Management System Unconventional decision-making for the management of emergencies or crises is a major issue that must be handled carefully on the part of the government in any country. It is even a better measure than any conventional decision-making process for the governance structure and capacity of a government. Unconventional and conventional decision-making seem to be separate processes, but in fact, they are intricately related. On the one hand, crisis incidents that require unconventional decision-making are often brought about by the potential impact of

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the lack of justice, democracy or timeliness in conventional decision-making. On the other hand, conventional decision-making for system building must leverage the valuable experience and lessons learned from the response to crisis incidents and the process of unconventional decision-making and aim to reduce the uncertainty of unconventional decision-making. Therefore, decision-makers should adopt a scientific and democratic approach to conventional decision-making to lower the possibility of crises from the sources. In the meantime, effective and well-targeted crisis management plans must be made in the process of unconventional decision-making for emergencies. Additionally, unconventional decision-making processes must be reviewed in a timely manner to adjust conventional decision-making processes and address problems both in a makeshift manner and at the very root. A government must build an open, reasonable, and well-coordinated emergency response system to pool as many social resources as possible for crisis management. This system should have extensive organizational coverage and strong resource pooling capacity and be in good order, standardized and operable. In particular, in China today, as crises occur frequently, more efforts must be made to design and run a permanent, mandatory, and authoritative early warning system to put in place strong anti-hacker measures and high fire walls and minimize the damage caused by crisis incidents to public interests. A complete crisis management system should include several key actions: prediction, preparedness, identification, isolation, management, and wrap-up. The main mechanisms needed in such a process are government decision-making, public communication, internal information transmission, collaboration among relevant departments, scenario-based crisis response training, etc. The core parts here are a permanent crisis management authority, a crisis response mechanism with clearly defined responsibilities and powers, and a complete crisis management system. More importantly, all these must be firmly law-based. Crisis response, as a part of the Chinese government’s decision-making process, encounters a number of difficulties. First, a permanent crisis management authority and a crisis response mechanism with clearly defined responsibilities have yet to be established. At the national level, there is no consultation and decision-making system or permanent authority for coordinating crisis response efforts, nor is there a long-term countercrisis strategy or emergency response plan formulated to safeguard national security. At the local level, further efforts are required to set up crisis management authorities that meet local needs and have clearly specified organizational structures and functions. Second, government authorities are often poorly coordinated in regard to timely and effective responses to crises. Different departments usually have their own command centers and tend to work in isolation from one another. Third, government officials and the public lack awareness of crisis management, and society has yet to build its capacity and resilience to crisis. Given delays in the establishment of the decision-making system for noncrisis situations and the absence of an effectively interactive public governance structure, the crisis decision-making system still has a long way to go. We must be aware that in the face of challenges and crises, we must be brave to embrace changes, seize opportunities and take the initiative to reform. The key here

1.3 A Preliminary Study on the Characteristics …

21

lies in establishing a modern crisis management system. This book will, therefore, discuss the establishment of such a system in terms of the relevant time sequence, organizational behavior and decision-making process. Of course, a crisis management system alone does not guarantee a society free from crises. The best way to manage crises is to improve programmed decision-making to effectively avoid their occurrence. Sustained stability ultimately depends on the evolution of the public governance structure36 from a government-only structure to one featuring participation by the government, enterprises and social organizations; from one dominated by government decrees to one involving decrees, moral rules, and social contracts formed by citizens; from one valuing solely efficiency to one giving equal emphasis to equity, democracy, and efficiency; from one depending solely on the rule of law to one combining the rule of law, virtue, and voluntary cooperation by citizens; and from a simply top-down structure to a structure where vertical and horizontal lines exist in good balance.

1.4 Research Framework This book starts from the realities of crisis management today, analyzes specific social crises in China, presents experience and lessons that can be learned from international crisis management practices, and explains the theories and system of crisis management by describing the characteristics of social crises, government performance, media policies, legal principles, and the role of nongovernmental organizations in crisis management. On the basis of these, the book intends to provide general ideas and an institutional framework for governments at all levels and of all regions to properly and timely handle crises and unconventional decision-making to facilitate the smooth transformation of our public governance structure and coordinated social development. Since crisis management became an independent discipline in international academia in the early 1960s, it has drawn growing attention from governments around the world. Many countries set up specialized research institutes (e.g., the Section on Emergency and Crisis Management of the American Society for Public Administration and Sweden’s CRISMART) to carry out review and in-depth analysis on the various historical crises such as the Cuban missile crisis and the widespread of the mad cow disease based on the theory of social conflict in sociology, the theory of cognitive disorder in psychology, development economics, institutional economics, and other theories, in order to help improve China’s crisis management system. China did not pay much attention to this area until recent years, when realities pushed it to. Although both governments at all levels and social science research 36

The “public governance structure” mentioned here mainly refers to the organizational form of governance bodies composed of government organizations, non-governmental organizations, private enterprises or individuals, and the governance formed by these subjects in dealing with public affairs according to the common governance concept. Norms, governance procedures, and governance tools.

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institutes are now aware of the importance of this discipline, research work is still limited. There is neither a sound analytical framework nor good interactions between government bodies and research institutes because of some institutional barriers. However, since China joined the WTO at the turn of the century, the country has been increasingly deeply involved in the globalization process and has pushed forward its domestic political and economic reforms. Thus, the administrative capacity of the Chinese government has been challenged, and it has become imperative for China to build a crisis management system, both in theory and in practice, that fits its social and political situations. To this end, the crisis management task force was established in early 2001, and this book is a collection of our preliminary research findings. It is our hope that this book can do its bit for the development of crisis management in China. This book explores government governance during crises from the following perspectives: basic concepts, analysis of the causes of a crisis-prone environment in China in transition, building a modern crisis management system, international experience and domestic practice, and case study. Chapter 2 introduces the basic concepts and processes of crisis and crisis management. Chapters 3–5 explain the building of a modern crisis management system from the perspectives of time sequence, organizational behavior and decision-making process. Chapter 6 analyzes the cases of the 1998 flood, the emergency response system in Nanning, and the Nandan incident in Guangxi to demonstrate the application of the theories presented in this book and to reveal the fact that the building of a modern crisis management system is a long and complex process closely related to the overall social governance structure and coordinated political and economic system building.

Chapter 2

Basic Concepts: Crisis and Crisis Management

Crisis may be a word that makes people feel nervous, but no society, nation, organization or individual can stay free from the threats imposed by crises. An organization is a stable structure comprised of subsystems, subsubsystems and elements, but it is also a dynamic system of interactions between particular persons and internal and external environments. The components of such a system can differ vastly, and an organization may show different characteristics. The external environment may also change. All these can lead to disputes, frictions, confrontations between different actors, and even overall instability. How should we look at a crisis? How do we define a crisis accurately? Do the various causes of crises share anything in common? Section 2.1 presents a review of the historical literature and defines crises based on their basic characteristics and the evolution of realities. Then, there is a discussion of different classification criteria for crises proposed by foreign scholars. The classification methods of renowned crisis management experts Uri Rosenthal and Alexander Kouzmin are adopted here. Crises can be classified either based on the features of a crisis itself or based on how it is resolved. Finally, the authors establish an analytical framework covering the three levels of society, organizations, and individuals to illustrate how a crisis comes into being and evolves. Section 2.2 focuses on crisis management. The authors discuss the objectives and principles of crisis management and conduct a comparative analysis of crisis management models based on crisis life cycle theory. The models discussed are Steven Fink’s four-stage model, Ian Mitroff’s five-stage model and the basic three-stage model. At the end of this section, the authors put forward an analytical framework for modern crisis management systems: time sequence analysis, organizational behavior analysis and decision-making process analysis.

© Social Sciences Academic Press 2022 L. Xue et al., Crisis Management in China, Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-8706-8_2

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2 Basic Concepts: Crisis and Crisis Management

2.1 Forms of Crises 2.1.1 How to Define a Crisis What is a crisis? How do we define a crisis in our daily life? We have to face threats to individual and group interests from time to time, but will all threats grow into crises? Conflicts abound in human society. As an old saying goes, “Storms gather without warning in nature, and bad luck befalls men overnight.” An individual may suffer an unexpected disease, traffic accident or natural disaster; a company or organization may be hit by an emergency, sabotage, stock market shock or staff turnover; and a government has to lead relief campaigns against natural disasters such as fires, storms, earthquakes and floods and deal with social issues such as terrorist activities, epidemics, and environmental deterioration. People are simply too busy to attend to all sorts of situations and may, therefore, be caught unprepared. Various terms are used to describe such situations: contingency, emergency, incident, conflict, war, social turbulence, etc. However, will all these grow into crises that an organization must deal with? Generally, a contingency is unpredictable, and an emergency needs to be dealt with promptly. These are not exactly crises. Tierry Pauchant and Ian Mitroff describe the difference between an accident and a crisis with a very vivid example: When a water tap in a factory is out of work, it is an accident if only some meetings have to be rescheduled and vending machines go out of service; but it is a crisis if the factory suspends production and even goes bankrupt because of this. An accident has relatively mild impacts and affects only small parts of an organization, while a crisis produces stronger impacts and brings actual or potential substantial damage to the whole of an organization.1 We have been trying to find a comprehensive and accurate way to define crises, identify all of their characteristics and outline a corresponding management system. However, crises take place in all kinds of scenarios, and it is simply impossible to give a one-and-for-all definition. Some scholars hold that the Chinese word weiji is the only word that fully presents the connotation of a crisis, i.e., it contains both “danger (wei) and opportunity (ji)”. A crisis is “the watershed between the better and the worse” for an organization.2 A crisis is bound to exert a nonignorable impact on the survival and development of an organization. The organization is on the verge of destruction if it fails to handle a crisis properly, but it lays a solid foundation for development if it can handle the crisis well. Uri Rosenthal defines crisis in a more accurate manner: A crisis happens when various unfavorable conditions converge: The decision-maker’s core values are severely threatened or challenged, related information is greatly inadequate, the evolution of the incident is highly uncertain, and a decision is urgently needed. What may cause such a situation can be a natural disaster or an anthropogenic hazard, 1 2

Coombs (1999, p. 3). Fink (1986, p. 3).

2.1 Forms of Crises

25

perhaps an earthquake or a violent interracial confrontation. An anthropogenic hazard may result from the lack of technical control, an identifiable manmade error, or a sabotage to the current social or political system. We need to set a prerequisite before defining a crisis: an incident at the organizational level affects part or the whole of a society and bears more social significance. Even if it is a corporate behavior that we analyze, it is done for the sake of its impact on society. This means that our purpose and principles here differ from what is involved when discussing crises in business management, despite some consistency in the nature of crisis management in both scenarios. Here, we start our theoretical thinking from the idea that a crisis is an unconventional social situation compared with situations where conventional decision-making by the government is required. Based upon the aforementioned descriptions of a crisis by Uri Rosenthal and others, a crisis is actually a situation that requires decision-making, in which the basic social values and the structure of social norms recognized by the decision-making organization, with government as the core, are severely threatened, an unexpected happening and uncertainties about how it will evolve produce high tension and pressure, and the decision-maker has to make critical decisions and take specific countermeasures within a rather tight timeframe so that the organization can survive and the damage caused can be minimized. As mentioned above, crises are put into two categories based on their driving forces. A crisis may be an emergency caused by a natural disaster, such as flood, earthquake, typhoon or drought, or an unexpected incident caused by an anthropogenic hazard such as a nuclear leakage, fire, or quality accident. A government, as the administrator of public affairs, has to take responsibility for restraining the chain reactions caused. Alternatively, a crisis may be triggered by social imbalance and turbulence resulting from conflicts between confronting members of society. Such a crisis is caused by certain social problems that may take the form of war, violent confrontation, or terrorist activity. Although these two categories differ greatly, they do overlap in many cases. In real life, an emergency may escalate into a crisis under specific external conditions. Based on the aforementioned categorization, it is clear that a crisis management system is highly important for the latter category or a social crisis that directly affects the political stability of a country. For a crisis of the former category, a government may be able to effectively minimize the damage in a short time if it properly arranges preventive measures, immediate responses and postcrisis steps. However, if mishandled, such a crisis may also render the government incapable and severely undermine the trust of the general public in the government. In this case, the crisis can still be a potential threat to social stability, even if it does not cause turbulence, similar to what was caused by the Bazhang Stream incident in Taiwan. What are the abstract characteristics of a crisis? First, a crisis is unexpected and urgent. A crisis may have omens and allow for early warnings—after all, a crisis grows from a chain of small events—but a crisis is still unpredictable in terms of when and where exactly it happens. A crisis is actually dangerous exactly because it is

26

2 Basic Concepts: Crisis and Crisis Management

Fig. 2.1 Relationship between crisis and emergency/unexpected incident

unexpected and happens beyond normal social order and beyond people’s expectations. Logically, a crisis must be unexpected, but an unexpected occurrence does not necessarily constitute a crisis. An unexpected occurrence cannot be regarded as a crisis without the following characteristics (see Fig. 2.1). Foster finds a crisis to have four conspicuous characteristics: the urgent need for a decision despite extreme shortage of well-trained people, material resources and time.3 For instance, it took only 10 min for a touch of flame to grow into a big fire at King’s Cross St. Pancras Tube Station in London in 1987, which killed 31 people and left 20 others severely injured. Second, a crisis is filled with uncertainties. People generally have no idea what to do when a crisis hits, as the crisis happens unexpectedly, and there is no empirical knowledge to rely on concerning what may come next and what the possible impacts are. Things change every moment. A risk is different from an uncertainty. The future development of a risk is predictable thanks to some related information available; therefore, we can have some expectation about the type of the outcome and the probability, and we can make decisions based upon cost–benefit analysis, opting for the best according to an organization’s objectives (long-term and short-term), status quo (crisis response capabilities in particular) and external environment. In comparison, a crisis is a crisis partly because its consequences are hard to predict. In addition, things are more multiplied and synchronically connected today in the era of information, so people are more likely to lose control over some things while concentrating on other things due to the limited resources at their disposal, and a crisis’s impact tends to grow through the spillover effect (alternatively, the “ripple effect” or “chain reaction”). Because of the spillover effect, a crisis produces a chain of negative impacts on the external world, similar to a pebble thrown into a pond sending off rounds of ripples. Ian Mitroff and Christine Pearson call the ripple effect caused by mismanagement at the initial stage of a crisis “chain reaction.”4 A typical example is a case of environmental pollution. In 1971, the leakage of hazardous chemicals in Seveso, Italy, resulted in lasting pollution in farms and communities nearby and put the relevant 3 4

Heath (1998, pp. 18–19). Heath (1998, p. 13).

2.1 Forms of Crises

27

area under the pressure of resident relocation and reconstruction. A similar case is nuclear leakage in Chernobyl of the former Soviet Union in 1986. A chain reaction may cause a more serious crisis. In a fire of a Sandoz chemical plant in Zug, Switzerland, in 1978, even though the situation was put under control within a short time, over 30 tons of poisonous substance flowed into the Rhine and formed a 40 km drift belt. When a fire broke out in Auckland, New Zealand, in 1989, crisis management efforts focused solely on firefighting in the initial stage, but severe social crises were later caused by casualties, broken families, business recovery and community reconstruction, not the fire itself. The problem lies in the insufficient capacity of the system to support the repair and reconstruction of community infrastructure by levying taxes. In 1998, floods rarely seen in history hit the Yangtze, Nenjiang and Songhua river basins, causing a direct economic loss up to over RMB200 billion (more than 2% of China’s GDP of the year) and severe damage to infrastructure (e.g., water conservancy facilities, transportation facilities, power grids and communications facilities, and cultural, educational and sanitary facilities). The impact on industrial and agricultural production was devastating (over 13.8 million people lost their homes; more than 17 million houses collapsed or were damaged; more than 21.5 million hectares of farmland were flooded; and 23,530 enterprises in Jiangxi and Hubei provinces alone were hit by the disaster, 12,846 of which suspended production). The disaster was estimated to have brought down GDP growth of the year by 0.864 percentage points.5 This is how an emergency may become a crisis. Third, a crisis exerts impact on society. Although crisis, in its literal meaning, may involve all kinds of actors, as far as crisis management is concerned in this context, it refers only to crises covered by public administration. That is, a crisis here must severely threaten the basic values and code of conduct in a social system and involves and affects communities or social groups rather than business entities or individuals. Therefore, the crisis management we discuss here is drastically different from the crisis management for an individual or a business organization in terms of objectives, principles and how it is done. Nevertheless, the analysis we make here can still serve as a reference, to some extent, for an individual or business organization to identify and respond to a crisis. It is noteworthy that, however, a business organization, a mega-multinational corporation in particular, tends to have ever-increasing impacts on the public when it deals with a crisis, as the market economy continues to develop. There are innumerable examples, such as the Nestlé incident, Johnson & Johnson’s poisoning Tylenol capsules, and Coca Cola’s poisoning incident in 1999. A tiny difference in how to look at and deal with a crisis may lead to rather different impacts on the image of a business. In traditional political science, the discussion of crises is more strictly confined to a social system with two or more confronting subjects and stresses the confrontations and game between the parties concerned. As our analysis involves a larger system, we set no limit concerning the confronting parties involved in a crisis. Nevertheless,

5

Wang (2000).

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2 Basic Concepts: Crisis and Crisis Management

it is undeniable that interactions of social entities with different natures remain the key factor, particularly when a crisis affects the relationship between the government and the public. Fourth, a crisis is in nature an issue of nonprogrammed decision-making. Uncertainties are in essence caused by incomplete information. Unpredictability in real life leads to unreliable or incomplete information, so there is no reliable foundation for decision-making. A crisis happens unexpectedly, without any rules to follow, and changes fast. Thus, the decision-making process in a crisis is extraordinarily complicated and difficult, while the organization’s survival hangs on the decision itself. Generally, a decision is either a programmed decision, i.e., a wellstructured decision, or a non-programmed one, i.e., an ill-structured decision. The two types address problems that are different in nature. Thus, the techniques involved are different. Routine programmed decision-making has experienced revolutionary changes because of the development and wide application of new digital technologies, such as operational research and electronic data processing (EDP), while a nonprogrammed decision is based on a large number of human judgments. Research in human cognition has not seen any revolutionary breakthroughs thus far, despite considerable progress. Thus, nonprogrammed decision-making is similar to conventional decision-making. See Chap. 5 for a detailed discussion of the differences between a programmed decision and a nonprogrammed decision. A crisis is in nature an issue of nonprogrammed decision-making. In a crisis, a “satisfactory” solution has to be found with limited information, resources and time (objectively typical “bounded rationality”). The core of crisis management lies in the capability to shift fast from normal conditions to an urgent situation (from normality to abnormality). Anxious to success and putting the individual subjective judgments over the value judgment on the contingency itself, as the crisis develops, a person will fall into the trap of a Hobson’s choice.6 A person in charge of crisis management then may take attitudes poles apart toward risks: He may reject risks (risk aversion) or prefer risks, producing accordingly the ostrich effect (in which a person refuses to accept the actual situation or falls into panic and gives up decision-making when a crisis hits, causing the doomsday effect) or the first cab response (in which a person acts by following his first thought and first sight, as we always signal the first-seen cab to stop). This indicates how important it is to grasp the essence of a crisis and to conduct targeted training and practice in routine management.

6

Thomas Hobson, a livery stable owner in Cambridge, England, in the sixteenth century, who rented out his horses to customers. Hobson loved his horses, but required his customers to take horses in the order he set. Customers were then prevented from choosing the horses to their satisfaction. However, they had no other choices. Otherwise, they had no horses to ride at all. A Hobson’s choice is a “fake decision” in which only one thing is offered. It should be strictly avoided in rational decision-making.

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29

Table 2.1 Crisis types Criteria

Crisis type

Driving force

Natural crises (natural phenomena and disasters)/manmade crises (terrorist activities, crimes, sabotages, etc.)

Scope of impacts

International, domestic and in-house crises

Causes and dimension

Political, financial, social and value crises

Countermeasures

Peaceful ways (e.g., sit-in, demonstrations, marches, etc.)/violent conflicts (terrorist activities, riots, revolts, civil wars, etc.)

Special feature

Nuclear/non-nuclear crises

2.1.2 How to Categorize Crises We discussed how to define crisis above. Now, we will look at specific forms of crisis. The understanding and definition of event types is the structural foundation of theoretical analysis. A crisis may be put into different categories by different criteria. Out of the scope of impacts, a crisis may be international, domestic, regional or in-house. Based on the source, a crisis may be generated from the threat of a nuclear war, the petroleum/wheat embargo on an enemy state, the conflict between NGOs, and the unintentional or intentional personal injuries (hijacking a train, or kidnapping a celebrated politician or businessman). Based on its economic impacts, a crisis may be a threat to employment and assets, the bankruptcy of a factory, the production suspension of a coal mine, or a plunge in investments. Crises may take numerous forms. Thus, researchers of crisis management need to conduct typological studies and find practical research methodologies. Conventional research on natural disaster analysis evidently needs to be enlarged to cover decision-making and management in a nonconventional urgent context. The following is an in-depth discussion of some types and a comparison of how they are managed. A crisis may be put into different categories by different criteria (see Table 2.1).7 It is concluded that a natural disaster is easier to predict than a social or political event. A crisis caused by a natural disaster, such as a flood or drought, is often generated from technical errors.8 Natural disasters have had nonignorable potential impacts on politics and the economy. Despite ever-advancing scientific and technological developments, humans cannot predict disasters in a fully accurate way, as it is quite challenging to give accurate long-term weather forecasts. Even an avoidable traffic accident or medium- or small-scale chemical incident diminishes the crisis prevention resources of other departments.9 Therefore, it is a complex issue of decision-making for an organization.

7

Hu (1999, pp. 1173–1177). Hewitt (1980). 9 Wildavsky (1988). 8

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2 Basic Concepts: Crisis and Crisis Management

According to some scholars, crises are categorized as solidary and conflicting crises.10 The former means that interest parties in a crisis have common demands, such as in a nationwide disaster, while the latter means that there are two or more different interest parties involved, such as in a war or revolution. A natural disaster is usually seen as a typical solidary crisis. Nonetheless, there are also potential conflicts in a natural disaster, as distress areas and nondisaster areas may compete for limited resources. Meanwhile, even in distinctly conflicting crises, such as revolts, riots and terrorist activities, there is consensus and communication to some extent, and this can even be true in war, which is the ultimate form of confrontation.11 Confronting parties in a crisis are never simple. Specific models change every moment, as interest changes alter the basic conditions of the behavioral game matrix and lead to many unpredictable changes in conditions. Therefore, we cannot oversimplify the warlord struggles during the reconstruction of the Karzai regime in Afghanistan. In this sense, anyone in charge of crisis management has to understand the possible action logic of different interest parties in a crisis in a dynamic and accurate way. Some Chinese scholars put crises into two categories, well-structured and illstructured crises, by integrating various indicators, such as complexity, nature and controllability.12 A well-structured crisis is not a historically accumulated problem, does not have much to do with core values and basic principles, is usually caused by real-life problems, requires the attainment of only practical and reachable objectives, and involves single or simple-natured problems and a small number of interest parties. This kind of crisis happens within a limited or certain scope and has a limited number of possible solutions, from which it is easy to find a workable solution that is acceptable to all parties of interest. The decision-making for such a crisis may be risky, but there are certainties to rely on. Moreover, confronting parties are less mobilized, with fewer participants, and the scale of the crisis is comparatively small. In a well-structured crisis, participants tend to take legitimate actions, such as marches, demonstrations, strikes and propaganda activities, instead of resorting to violence. Conflicts in a wellstructured crisis have less to do with ideology by nature. Confronting parties are less organized. No external force intervenes. The public show little sympathy to either side. Confronting parties in conflict take nonzero game strategies and are open to possible communication and negotiation. It is possible and workable to avoid any escalation and protraction of the crisis. A well-structured crisis leaves no radical impacts on the social or political system, leading to no radical institutional changes or hard hits on the regime. It is comparatively not that difficult for a government to control such a crisis. An ill-structured crisis stands right on the opposite of a well-structured crisis. However, a crisis in real life is usually an ill-structured crisis. In 1999, Shen Zhiyuan and some other Chinese scholars suggested two types of crises (“contingencies”

10

Stallings and Schepart (1990, pp. 75–90). Axelrod (1976). 12 Hu (1999, pp. 1173–1177). 11

2.1 Forms of Crises

31

in their words) based upon their study of financial crises in history and mathematical finance. One type is the “energy accumulation” type, such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Energy erupts when it accumulates beyond the threshold level. For instance, the illusive value of the bubble economy continues to grow until the bubble pops. The other is the “amplification” type. For instance, the bankruptcy of one company causes the bankruptcy of its creditors. The Long-term Capital Management L.P. (LTCM) incident in the U.S. caused a cascade amplification and resulted in the Asian financial crisis. Both types are “imminent crises” (contingencies). Energy accumulates and is amplified, i.e., “the more energy accumulates, the higher the magnitude of amplification is.”13 Such a categorization complies with precursors and the “ripple effect” discussed in the previous section. However, it is difficult to make a clear-cut categorization of a real-life crisis in this way, as the two types in essence mingle together. Based upon various discussions of crisis categorization, Rosenthal and Kouzimin, both of whom are renowned crisis management scholars, proposed a basic classification principle (1997): Crisis categorization basically follows two criteria, i.e., the field of impacts and the attitudes of parties involved. First, the field of impacts. Some crises directly threaten the basic framework of an institutional society, socially, organizationally or politically. Examples include the occupation of government buildings by enemy forces or the destruction of key infrastructure in an earthquake. Other crises affect important norms or values, such as affecting people’s physical or mental health, hampering the rule of law, or causing loss of assets. Second, the area of impacts. Geographically, a crisis may affect a specific organization or building, a place, a region, a country or the entire world. However, a local crisis can grow into a global crisis under specific conditions due to the spillover effect. For example, the Falkland Islands crisis and the consequent war between Argentina and the United Kingdom led to the collapse of the Argentine regime of the time. Moreover, the field of impacts of a crisis may also be defined by the degree of damage, particularly in wars and large-scale disasters. There are two different views of players’ attitudes toward a crisis: players in a crisis either reach an agreement on or hold different opinions over responses to a crisis.14 It indicates the existence of subjective and objective views of the same crisis. There is an interesting yet reasonable idea that “it is the onlookers who define a crisis.” A situation is a crisis so long as some people or the media believe it to be one.15 A crisis is thought to be a good opportunity for reform, as the Chinese word for crisis, weiji, is literally a juxtaposition of danger and opportunity. A crisis for some is a golden opportunity for others. People may not tend to think so in the face of large disasters that affect all. However, people’s opinions usually vary in a social crisis, such as demonstrations, kidnaps, bomb attacks and environmental hazards, as shown in many case studies. It is actually directly related to the origin of a crisis. 13

Shen et al. (1999). Rosenthal (1989, pp. 367–394). 15 Crelinsten (1994). 14

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2 Basic Concepts: Crisis and Crisis Management

People tend to take actions to address long-standing and deeply rooted conflicts that accumulate over time, but they are unable to deal with in real life, yet they usually give no thought as to whether an action pattern goes to extremes. Nationalist terrorism is a good example for the time being. In a crisis, even if parties concerned have reached an agreement on the urgency of the situation, they can still disagree with each other on the specific measures to be implemented.16 Differences and conflicts of values push decision-making into a painful process of compromising and balancing. For example, when a natural disaster hits, shall we give all supplies to the most severely stricken area, or shall we spare some for possible larger disasters to come in other areas? Who in a contaminated area shall be the first in the evacuation process? If case of a nuclear war, who shall be the first to enter a radiation-proof cabin? What is the best solution to an urban riot? Which AIDS patient should receive the latest costly treatment? In an escalating mass incident such as a violent mass conflict, shall we first restore order or evacuate the severely injured? When all the players in a crisis reach an agreement on the specific measures to take, the crisis receives a unanimous response, i.e., the members of a group band together to deal with the crisis, as in a large natural disaster. However, in most cases in real life, there are conflicts, particularly between organized forces in a social crisis. Crises happen and evolve in highly diverse ways and take vastly different forms. Nonetheless, they all have great uncertainties and change fast. Each crisis is unique, and there are no rules or routines to follow. A local crisis may soon evolve into a national or international crisis (such as the Yangxin incident in Shandong), or exogenous factors may turn into endogenous factors and the crisis from a solidary one to a conflicting one (such as the Nandan incident in Guangxi). In summary, the study of crisis categorization never establishes a fixed set of criteria; instead, it aims to build a well-structured framework to examine the occurrence and development of a crisis in a dynamic and insightful way.

2.1.3 Causes of a Crisis After discussing the nature and categorization of crises, one may pay more attention to similar events occurring around them, in the country and even across the world. Further questions may pop up: Where does a crisis come from? Why does it happen? How does it develop? We need to study and analyze the generation and development of crises. Before a crisis became a separate topic of discussion, people used various words to describe the state of an emergency, such as conflict and confrontation. This proves that a crisis undoubtedly happens under certain social conditions and cannot be ignored. Western scholars proposed two human nature-based hypotheses in this regard. One is the “sporadic” theory established by Ted Robert Gurr, Samuel Huntington and Ekkart 16

Kouzmin and Jarman (1989).

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33

Zimmermann. They hold that man, in nature, pursues peace, loves tranquility and desires friendliness. A crisis is an abnormal state that deviates from the normal order and is never permanent. Here, we need to find the factors that lead to such deviation in the behavior of men. The other hypothesis is the “inherent” theory represented by Charles Tilly. Scholars in this group think that man, in nature, tends to be conflicting and aggressive and that because of such inherent aggressiveness, man tends to exert the maximum influence on power and policy in the political arena. Thus, crises and conflicts are the permanent state required by humans and are only normal. Based on this, we need to find the reasons why man resorts to other measures, instead of conflicts and confrontations, to settle problems. Like the debate about whether human nature is good or evil, the argument between these two hypotheses seems unlikely to end soon. Anyway, one thing is for sure: Crises come from myriad reasons. Social combustion theory (SCT) is worth mentioning here. The generation of a crisis is actually the process in which a social system turns from orderliness to disorderliness, from a more orderly state to a less orderly state, and from quantitative change to qualitative change, where a contingency finally erupts. The SCT compares disorder, instability, imbalance, turbulence and riot in a social system to the process of burning in nature, which is quite to the point. It puts the stable state of a social organization/system into a well-structured theoretical and statistical system, known as the social stability warning system.17 According to the SCT, a social system grows from orderliness to disorderliness and finally to decline (i.e., a key social crisis). The intrinsic mechanism is in essence a process from quantitative change to qualitative change, in which the system deteriorates. When the relationship between man and nature and interpersonal relationships that may cause external disturbance and internal conflicts remain in full balance and perfect harmony, a society is in an ultimate state of theoretically absolute stability. When anything deviates from this state, there is a negative contribution (i.e., adding to the combustion substances that fuel social turbulence) to social stability. When such a negative contribution accumulates to reach a certain level and is ignited by wrong public opinion (i.e., adding social combustion promoters and catalysts), it exerts an influence on a population of a certain size and density and on a certain geographical scope. Then, ignited by a “fuse” (as social temperature goes beyond the social trigger threshold), a contingency erupts to trigger social imbalance (instability), social disorder (turbulence), or social uncontrollability (riot) and, finally, social breakdown. As indicated by modern system theory, any organization is of collectivity, associativity, nonadditivity, environmental compatibility and dynamic variability. In an open system, the interrelation between subsystems plays a significant role in the stability of the entire system. When the chaos level of a system keeps increasing, the system’s entropy value turns positive, and the entropy changes from orderliness to disorderliness. When the orderliness of a system keeps increasing, 17

The SCT used in the analysis of contingencies in China in the article draws reference from the research by Professor Niu Wenyuan from the CAS, “Social Combustion Theory and the Warning System for Social Stability for China (lecture notes)”, a working paper for Seminar of Emergency Management for Contingencies in Social Transition. Beijing: November 26, 2001.

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Table 2.2 Society–organization–individual analysis framework Level

Sphere of behavior

Macroscopic

Society

Causes

Economic Political Cultural etc.

Organizational

Organizations

Two-way

Organizational structure Management culture Decision-making system etc.

Microscopic

Individuals

Fluctuation

Individuals’ mental patterns Individuals’ capacity etc.

the system absorbs negentropy from the outside, and there is orderly organizational movement. The SCT gives a vivid depiction of how a crisis occurs and evolves. In addition, it also uses selected parameters to observe the situation and give warnings. It is more a description of the evolution of a crisis and an easy-to-control methodology. We investigate the causes of crises on the three levels of social, organizational and individual factors to further reveal the causes to help with sound public administration (see Table 2.2). Starting such analysis at the organizational level helps us understand the process and mechanism of transmission from this to other levels, and it also helps us dynamically understand how individuals perceive, mentally respond to, and react in action to the outside world and how things at the organizational and social levels fluctuate up and down. The first level is the social level. History shows that there were crises in a traditional agricultural society. However, the probability was much lower than in a society in transition like ours today. With economic and technological developments, what are the factors in a changing social structure that have laid the foundation for crises? According to theories in political science, social transformation is a process of disintegration, adjustment and reorganization of the social structure and system, a process of profit redistribution and an incessant transfer of social power.18 For changes in social systems, we may perform our analysis from political, economic and cultural perspectives. Politically, social changes strengthen social stratification, mobility and citizens’ political awareness. People see the political system they are in from a new angle and want to participate in it, express their views, and contribute to it. Thus, the current government needs to be politically capable: it must be able to keep various political authorities together, to absorb political forces and to fight against political corruption in the transition period. In the case of any one out of balance, high political partic-

18

Hu (1999, p. 1186).

2.1 Forms of Crises

35

ipation will generate or set free dissident forces in society, and without legitimate channels to vent, these forces will cause great political instability and even a political crisis. Economically, growth produces regional differences, stratification and economic disorders and results in widespread inequality and economic turmoil, adding up to social turmoil. Many studies have found an evident positive correlation between the degree of inequality in social resource distribution and the frequency and intensity of political conflicts. It is noteworthy that according to John Nagle, the correlation between inequality and political conflicts is depicted by an inverted U-shaped curve. People feel no dissatisfaction in a system with little inequality; dissatisfaction reaches the climax with a medium level of inequality; and people feel less dissatisfied when the inequality level goes further up. This has to do with what people expects. Albert Hirschman depicts this very vividly by taking people’s psychological changes during an in-tunnel traffic jam as an example. In a developing country, rapid economic development usually results in growing inequality, and ineffective economic regulation generates chaos on financial markets; in such a condition, a conflict is highly likely. As demonstrated by the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and other similar cases, unbalanced economic development often causes crises. Culturally, changes in an entire social system require synergetic development in the political, economic and cultural spheres. Cultural assimilation plays a significant role in preventing social conflicts in the process of social integration. Cultural assimilation covers an extraordinarily wide range, including common language, morality and values, citizens’ political awareness and religious belief. In a society with high cultural homogeneity, people share the same values, and society remains highly stable. In contrast, in a society with high cultural heterogeneity, social conflicts find a solid social psychological foundation. This is similar to the issue of the attitudes of relevant entities in our discussion about crisis categorization earlier. The Middle East has long been suffering from incessant wars and terrorist activities, mainly because of differences in religious beliefs. In addition to the issue of different cultural systems, in changes of a social system, it is particularly noteworthy that a cultural system may not be able to maintain social stability, as traditional values perish and modern values are distorted or out of position. Therefore, the cultural system may no longer serve as the last line of defense against human conflicts; instead, crises caused by cultural strife have taken place frequently and left more long-lasting and far-reaching impacts than other crises. The above discussions are largely on the potential social causes of a crisis, i.e., a crisis is seen as the externalized form of latent problems in the social system within a period of time. Next, we examine how a crisis is generated at the organizational level, as organizations are where various crises occur. The occurrence and possible evolution of a crisis is closely linked with how people in charge of an organization think and behave. Therefore, we will look into a crisis and the organization concerned from the angle of management. We are unable to fully predict or prevent a natural disaster, but an effective management system enhances our capacity to respond appropriately. Effective countermeasures and timely implementation reduce the probability that a contingency grows into a crisis, which is what

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crisis management research is based on in the first place. Meanwhile, inappropriate countermeasures themselves may be part of the reason why a crisis occurs, just as different behavior strategies in a crisis produce different results, as we discussed above. Causes of a crisis lie on the organizational level if no appropriate organizational structure, culture, management system, smart decision-maker or powerful execution system is in place in the organization. Be they are in business administration or public administration, elements of crisis management are always closely related to the essential needs of organizational management. The essential elements of crisis management include organizational structure and culture, management strategies and tactics, and strategic crisis management and decision-making measures.19 More importantly, the study of crisis management aims to enhance crisis coping capacity at the organizational level. It requires in-depth elaboration from the angle of an organization’s routine operation and management. Therefore, the book focuses on organizational governance in a crisis based upon various analytical sequences. Individual factors are examined based on two considerations. First, the psychological patterns of individuals lay an important foundation for mass behaviors. Second, the capability of an individual has been tremendously enhanced by the explosive development of technology, and the Internet serves as a great way to gather people. We have seen horrible terrorist attacks that have caused mass casualties launched by one or several persons from time to time. Thus, it is important to study the psychological factors of individuals. In addition, the possible damage and impact of a crisis depend upon, to various degrees, the mentalities and capacities of the people involved. For the causes of a crisis, intrapsychic conflicts, external pressure and aggressive behaviors are summarized to form frustration-aggression theory, holding that aggressive behavior must originate from a certain form of hidden repression and frustration. Frustration may come from the repression resulting from external pressure or from an imbalance between expectation and reality (such as Gurr’s “relative deprivation,” which is explained with anticipation in economics). First, it should be clarified that deviant behaviors originate from the comparison between the expected and actual gains and losses; second, the gap between expected and actual gains does not necessarily lead to a crisis. People do not resort to fierce means of resistance unless the gap between what they need and what they get becomes unbearably large. Understanding this helps us see the root of a crisis, to some extent, and lays a solid foundation for us to conduct crisis management in a scientific way and to effectively maintain lasting political stability.

19

Heath (1998, p. 241).

2.2 Crisis Management

37

2.2 Crisis Management 2.2.1 How to Define Crisis Management The Japanese fishery high-school training ship Ehime Maru was sunken by the United States Navy Los Angeles-class submarine USS Greenville in February 2001, but then Japanese Prime Minister Yoshir¯o Mori did not cancel his golf round and only returned to his office to handle the matter five hours after hearing the news. He was later heavily criticized. In contrast, in the aforementioned Tylenol crisis, Johnson & Johnson took effective actions and managed to redeem its reputation and even won more consumers’ hearts. Evidently, a misjudgment of the situation can only aggravate a crisis. Good crisis management, on the contrary, wins a chance for getting successfully out of a crisis. Then, how shall we conduct crisis management? As Ted Robert Gurr puts it, “Crisis study and management aims to minimize tragedies in human society.”20 Whatever its form is, an organization faces three entirely different results once it is in a crisis: The organization may collapse and disappear in a crisis if it cannot withstand the heavy blow or be prepared for or capable of dealing with the crisis. Alternatively, the organization can survive a crisis, but its image, reputation and social status are severely damaged afterwards if it fails to take timely, appropriate and effective crisis management measures, particularly those to win the public’s understanding and support. In the American business circle, Saxon Oil Co., Ltd. (known for the oil leakage crisis) has been a typical case of failure. Alternatively, the organization may be able to withstand all pressures from the crisis, reinforce its social status and competitive edge, and substantially enhance its public image if it took proactive and effective crisis management measures to solve problems. Crisis management provides guidelines for properly dealing with a crisis to avoid or minimize losses.21 In a market economy where resources are limited and competition unlimited, management staff of business organizations have long entered crisis and crisis management into business administration as part of the universal principle of business survival and development. Crisis management cases account for a considerable proportion of teaching materials in many well-known business schools. Looking back into the origin of crisis management, we find that it used to apply only to military and diplomatic crises. Therefore, crisis handling professionals in the early days were largely enlisted to the army. Crisis management developed rapidly in the 1980s, when many enterprises found themselves to be more vulnerable in an ever-changing business environment filled with uncertainties. In a highly uncertain business society, crisis management has been a key link in business administration. Fatpool, the author of Crisis Management, conducted a survey among the top management of Fortune 500 companies: Up to 80% of the respondents thought that a modern company cannot stay free of crises, just as no man can avoid death; 14% of the respondents 20 21

Gurr (1981, p. 7). Quoted from Hu (1999, p. 1159). Coombs (1999, p. 3).

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said that they had faced severe crises. Center for Disaster and Medical Humanitarian Response of CCOU (CERT-CUHK-Oxford University) and Risk and Crisis Management Center at the Liverpool Business School have been engaged research in this field. In addition, there are at least six other universities in the United Kingdom that are engaged in the study of crisis management. In the United States, similar centers mainly include the Disaster Research Center at the University of Delaware, the Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorist Events (CREATE) at the University of Southern California and the Risk Management Center at the University of California, Los Angeles. Leiden University in the Netherlands is an important center of crisis management in Europe. Additionally, a risk management center was established at Karlstad University of Sweden. Moreover, a great number of private business organizations, such as DNV Technica and the Institute of Industrial Crises in the United Kingdom and the Mayors’ Association in the United States, provide consulting services to specific industrial sectors. Crisis management courses have also been launched in business schools in China in recent years to enhance business organizations’ crisis-coping capacity. Of course, similar to the situation of business administration and public administration, there are differences between crisis management for a business organization and that for a public organization. The fundamental differences lie in their objectives and missions. Business administration focuses on enterprises and enterprises pursuing profits, while public administration mainly involves government agencies and other public institutions and aims to promote social equality and public interests. Furthermore, some hold that public administration and business administration are different in nature: traditional public administration is a monopoly and business administration is competitive. Additionally, the two take different measures: traditional public administration mainly takes administrative and legal means, with economic means as supplementary ones, while economic means are the major ones in business administration, with administrative and legal means as supplementary methods. However, the two have many principles, methods and operations.22 Moreover, some have examined the difference between the two in material sources for operation: public administration mainly has financial support from government revenues and must be placed under public scrutiny; business administration mainly depends upon the profits a company obtains amid market competition and thus is free from control by social forces.23 However, at the organizational level, public administration and business administration adopt entirely the same management strategies, and both need to solve three problems when dealing with a crisis: How to win more time? How to obtain more information? How to reduce losses or cost of resources? K¯onosuke Matsushita, who founded Panasonic, stated that long-lasting crisis awareness stands as the foundation of an organization’s invincible success. Crisis management is indispensable in social administration, as it is an essential issue that has direct impacts on national interests and people’s living standards, as well as political stability. The entire world seems to be shaken in various crises, including 22 23

Wang (2001). Wang (2001).

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39

natural disasters such as floods, fires and traffic accidents, manmade hazards such as the war in the Middle East, the Cuban Missile Crisis, the 1956 Hungarian revolution, the Ole Miss riot in the United States in 1962, the May 1968 events in France and the 9/11 attacks. Governments around the globe have shown concerns over how to effectively respond to and deal with crises. In the broadest sense, crisis management addresses issues before, during and after a crisis. Traditionally, crisis management focuses more on response while ignoring the causes and consequences of a crisis. Crisis management plans and thoughts, be they contingency, emergency, disaster management, recovery, or aftermath management, are mostly crisis management. Crisis management is better conducted via risk reduction and buffer management by determining the root source, innate character and forms of a crisis and analyzing the impacts. In other words, effective crisis management needs to transfer or reduce the source, scope and impacts of a crisis; attach more importance to the initial management; enhance response management for crisis shock; and improve recovery management to realize effective mitigation of losses in a crisis.

2.2.2 Crisis Management and Crisis Life Cycle The staging of crisis management varies. It may be in four stages, namely, prevention, preparation, response and recovery (PPRR). The U.S. The National Security Council redefines the four stages of mitigation, preparation, response and recovery. Robert Heath established the 4R model: reduction, readiness, response and recovery.24 Crisis management is defined according to the process of a crisis. According to W. Timothy Coombs, the four basic elements of crisis management are prevention, preparation, performance and learning.25 These ways of crisis management staging actually integrate crisis management actions with the life cycle of a crisis and the daily operation of an organization. Academically, the three most widely recognized crisis management staging methods are Fink’s four-stage life cycle model (1986), Mitroff’s five-stage model (1994) and the basic three-stage model.26 Fink first talked about his model (referred to as the F Model hereinafter) in his Crisis Management: Planning for Inevitable, but the model was fully explained until the 1990s. Fink illustrated a crisis life cycle with medical terminologies: In the first prodromal period, there are signs indicating the onset of a crisis; in the second breakout/acute period, harmful events break out and cause a crisis; in the third chronic period, the crisis produces lasting impacts, and efforts are made to eliminate the crisis; and in the fourth resolution period, the crisis is fully solved. Fink was the first to see crisis management as a long-term event. He believes that 24

Heath (1998, pp. 30–31). Coombs (1999). 26 For more details of crisis management staging, see Coombs (1999). 25

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2 Basic Concepts: Crisis and Crisis Management

there must be signs indicating the onset of a crisis before the crisis actually takes place. Thus, Fink holds that a qualified crisis manager should go beyond the crisis management plan (CMP) and take initiative to identify and prevent possible trigger events. A crisis begins with a trigger event and generates long-term impacts. It comes to a clear-cut end. Accordingly, crisis management is never a simple one-time action. Sturge elaborates on the specific measures to be taken in different stages of a crisis (1994) based upon the F Model, with a focus on communications in different stages of a crisis life cycle. Stakeholders have no idea what is going on during the breakout/acute period of a crisis, and they demand information with which they can tell the possible impacts and countermeasures, such as information on whether people are evacuated. In fierce competition, stakeholders currently prefer information favorable to their organizations’ reputation. They need to know how they are affected in a crisis and how they can establish and maintain their reputation. Crisis management expert Ian Mitroff creates the five-stage model of crisis management (hereinafter referred to as the M Model): • Signal detection: early warning signs for a potential crisis identified and preventive measures taken; • Probing and prevention: risk factors searched for and preventive measures taken to reduce potential damage; • Damage control: Damage caused by a crisis contained and kept from spreading to other areas or external environments; • Recovery: Returning to normal operations as soon as possible; and • Learning: The crisis and management measures taken were reviewed and analyzed to benefit future crisis management. The M Model may look quite different from the F Model, but the two are similar in essence. The M Model maps the F Model to a great extent. Signal detection and probing/prevention stages are equivalent to the prodromal period in the F Model. The difference lies in the preventive part: In the F Model, a crisis is preventable, and the M Model focuses on how to prevent it. Damage control corresponds to the breakout/acute period, and recovery corresponds to the resolution period. Both the damage control stage and the breakout/acute period stress the control of the damage of a trigger event. The M Model focuses more on how to prevent the impacts of a crisis from spreading to the “healthy” parts of an organization.27 The recovery stage and the chronic period both reflect an organization’s innate needs for normal operation. In fact, how soon an organization can return to normal operation after a crisis is a key factor in whether its crisis management is successful.28 The M Model emphasizes how to help an organization recover from a crisis via crisis management, while the F Model only states that organizations are going to recover from crises sooner or later. Both the learning stage and the resolution period mean the end of a crisis. However, crisis management in Model F stops at the resolution period, while in Model M,

27 28

Augustine (1995). Mitroff (1994).

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review and self-criticism stand as the beginning of a new cycle of crisis management, providing effective feedback to new signal detection and probing/prevention stages.29 The last stage in the M Model is the continuation of recovery. In addition to assessment and reorganization, there is communication and follow-up of stakeholders, such as how to keep effective contact with stakeholders, how to monitor the release of related information, and how to update the media in a timely manner. On the whole, essentially, the M Model takes initiative to stress decisions to be made in each stage of a crisis, while the F Model is more descriptive, illustrating the process of a crisis and the features of each stage. For the three-stage model, we are not sure who is the first to propose it, but experts such as Birch and Guth advocate it quite enthusiastically. In this model, crisis management is divided into the pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis stages, and there are sub-stages in each of the three. The relations between the stages in the F Model and M Model and this three-stage model are as follows: The precrisis stage includes the prodromal period and signal detection and prevention; the crisis stage includes the outbreak of a crisis, trigger events and crisis settlement periods, i.e., It covers the damage control period, the breakout/acute period and the recovery and chronic period. The postcrisis stage covers learning and the resolution period. Such macroscopic staging is evidently easily acceptable to the majority of experts. In sum, the aforementioned staging models have established a framework and mechanism to study crises and crisis management in a more comprehensive and methodological manner. We adopt the three-stage model to illustrate the crisis management process to cover features of the other models and subdivide each of the three for more specific details.

2.2.3 Framework for Crisis Management Analysis The time sequence or crisis life cycle theory is generally adopted in crisis management analysis. Figure 2.2 illustrates Robert Heath’s crisis management model that provides coping strategies at each stage of a crisis. As discussed in the previous section, such a model features a simple yet clear structure that illustrates the essence of numerous and complicated crises; therefore, it has been adopted in a majority of studies. We will do the same in this book. We also take the time sequence as the framework to describe the modern crisis management system (different in the specific ways of staging, however). In the meantime, organizational behavior analysis (of entities’ behaviors in a crisis) and decision-making analysis are adopted as supplementary analytical tools based upon the management characteristics of crises. We hope, in this way, that we can help people better understand the root of a crisis and the strategic significance of crisis management.

29

Gonzalez-Herreo and Pratt (1995), Gonzalez-Herreo and Pratt (1996).

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2 Basic Concepts: Crisis and Crisis Management

Fig. 2.2 Crisis management model. Source Heath (1998, p. 32)

(1)

(2)

Time sequence analysis of crisis management According to the three-stage model, crisis management is divided into the pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis stages with sub-stages in each of the three. Accordingly, periods in crisis management analysis are put into the following sequence: early warning and preparation, identification, isolation, management, and beneficial aftermath coping. Organizational behavior analysis Governments around the globe take various measures to deal with public crises to minimize or even avoid damage to life and assets, normal governance and basic social order. We analyze four topics in the building of a modern crisis management system, from the angle of organizational behavior, namely, government efficiency, role of mass media, response network and legal principle, as the four major issues a government should give priority to in managing a crisis.

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(3)

43

Decision-making analysis Public decision-making is the core of public governance in a society. Public decision-making includes programmed decision-making in peace and normal states and non-programmed decision-making in the abnormal state of a crisis (or “pre-crisis decision-making” and “post-crisis decision-making,” according to Robert Heath). Decisions to be made and the environment for making them in a crisis impose high pressure on decision-makers, who thus must make decisions in a scientific and wise way.

Chapter 3

Building a Modern Crisis Management System: Time Sequence Analysis

A crisis develops quickly, and the causes, the results and contributing factors are all of great uncertainty. Crisis management personnel thus usually have to deal with incomplete, inaccurate or delayed information. Therefore, the entire process of a crisis is filled with risks, shocks and explosiveness. Because every crisis is unique, there are no universally applicable rules for governments to follow, but from the angle of time sequence, does a crisis follow a certain process or development cycle? We find it does. A crisis never takes shape all at once, and it is impossible for anyone to return things to normal once and for all. It takes time for a crisis to take shape, and it takes time to solve it. Generally, a crisis grows roughly in the following phases: (1) the forewarning phase, where warning signs of the onset of a crisis appear; (2) the emergency phase, where key events take place and the situation develops fast and unpredictably; (3) the prolonging phase, where a crisis is controlled but not ultimately solved; and (4) the settlement phase, where a crisis is fully settled. Correspondingly, government authorities and other organizations, as the main players in crisis management, must take proper measures in accordance with the features in each stage of a crisis. The process of crisis management is roughly phased as early warning and preparation, identification, isolation, management, and post-crisis management, which form a crisis development cycle. In this chapter, the authors illustrate a referential framework from the angle of time sequence, talking about the strategies and measures taken in each stage of crisis management, issues that require high attention, how to prevent a crisis from spreading out of a certain scope and into a more aggravated situation. Crisis management experts and scholars have shown interest in the staging of crisis management. Despite various specific ways of staging, the criteria are basically the same. For in-depth and convenient analysis and investigation, we divide crisis management into five stages: early warning and preparation, identification, isolation, management, and post-crisis management (see Fig. 3.1), based on various relevant ideas of crisis management experts and scholars. Crisis management personnel must

© Social Sciences Academic Press 2022 L. Xue et al., Crisis Management in China, Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-8706-8_3

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3 Building a Modern Crisis Management System …

Fig. 3.1 Stages of crisis management

take proper strategies and measures in each stage and make accurate assessments of the situation to stop the crisis at a certain stage and prevent things from getting worse.

3.1 Early Warning and Preparation Early warning and preparation is the first stage of crisis management and aims to effectively prevent and avoid a crisis. To some extent, it is more important to prevent a crisis or its escalation than to settle one because if the root of a crisis is eliminated before the crisis actually breaks out, we will be able to maintain good social order without spending more manpower, materials and financial resources than usual. As David Osborne and Ted Gaebler put it, governance aims to “prevent with a smaller sum, instead of to cure at a high cost.”1 Compared with the other stages of a crisis, it is more cost-effective and convenient to avoid one in the first place. However, attention to this aspect has been quite insufficient in daily crisis management.

3.1.1 How to Avoid a Crisis As the least costly and easiest way to control a potential crisis, crisis avoidance is evidently the best method of crisis management. However, as quite a number of crisis managers see crises as something unavoidable in routine work, crisis avoidance has long been overlooked or even fully neglected and has been the least favored part of crisis management. In fact, many potential crises are avoided every day, and various others are seeded at the same time. Many crises requiring nonroutine decision making generally result from the potential impacts of unfair, undemocratic and delayed routine decisionmaking on society and citizens. Then, how can we eradicate the root of a crisis and effectively avoid it?

1

Osborne and Gaebler (1996, p. 205).

3.1 Early Warning and Preparation

3.1.1.1

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Dynamic Prediction

To avoid a crisis, we need to first list out and categorize all potential threats (disaster sources and hazards) of an organization, work out contingency plans according to the potential consequences and estimate the prevention cost. Such organizational behaviors shall be part of routine work so that information on the organization’s security is updated in a timely manner. If monitoring is sound and adequate, damages can be minimized or even totally avoided. China is now in a critical period of economic and social transition, which is a stage of frequent instabilities in social development. It is common to see economic dysfunction, social disorder and psychological imbalance, and social ethics need to be rebuilt. At present, reforms and the development of a socialist market economy are vigorously pushed forward, and various deep-rooted conflicts and problems may become direct or indirect contributing factors to a crisis that impairs social stability. Strategically, it is extraordinarily important to make timely predictions, provide early warnings for social crises and work out measures for effective responses. It is noteworthy that a specific reform policy cannot be promulgated unless possible social effects, economic impacts and public responses are fully considered so that hidden dangers for crises are eliminated.

3.1.1.2

Overconfidence Should Be Avoided

During crisis management, people tend to focus more on emergency relief in a crisis while leaving various symptoms of a latent crisis unnoticed and unattended to. Thus, so many losses have been incurred although they could have been avoided. Moreover, organizations usually fall into the trap of conventional thinking and knowledge gaps and are overconfident about the organization’s crisis resistance. Therefore, they are almost always unprepared when a crisis hits. As a result, many crises that could have been avoided or well controlled if organization management staff had not been so careless or overconfident grew into severe crises. The notorious New York City blackout of 1977 was a good example of what overconfidence in crisis management could result in. Early warnings start with crisis awareness, but in a peaceful and stable era, people tend to lack awareness of crises. Thus, governments at various levels in China should first understand the importance of crisis management to the stability and development of the Party and the country and stay alert. Guard should never be dropped. In the meantime, governments on various levels should keep pace with new developments, stay updated with the possibilities of unconventional threats (particularly the connections between different events and the possible damage that individuals and extremist organizations can impose on society), and adjust and upgrade crisis response strategies in a timely manner.

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3 Building a Modern Crisis Management System …

A Sound Incentive Mechanism Should Be Created

Some local governments and organizations in China tend to lie and conceal truth in crises. They try everything possible to cover the real death toll so that those in leading positions can keep their titles intact. A severe gold mine explosion took place in Fanzhi County, Shanxi Province, on June 22, 2002. Instead of trying to help survivors, the mine owner dumped, buried and burned victims’ bodies so that he could lie about the death toll and conceal truth about the accident. All major suspects went into hiding afterwards.2 A serious accident took place in the Fuyuan Coal Mine in Shanxi Province on May 4, 2002. The unscrupulous mine manager illegally ran the mine and concealed all information about the accident for quite a long time. The accident was not reported to the state authority until May 12, and over 20 were killed.3 After a flooding disaster took place in a tin mine in Nandan County, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region on July 17, 2001, mine owners and local officials colluded to cover up the accident for as long as two weeks. The whole country was shocked when truth was revealed.4 Laws and regulations, such as the Work Safety Law of the People’s Republic of China, Law of the People’s Republic of China on Safety in Mines, Regulations on the Report and Handling of Casualty Accidents to Enterprise Employees and Regulations on the Report and Investigation of Serious Engineering and Construction Accidents, stipulate penalties for those who are accountable for accidents. The State Council promulgated the Regulations on Administrative Accountability in Extraordinarily Serious Safety Accidents. The central government repeatedly stressed that when an extraordinarily serious safety accident takes place, the local government and the organization concerned must report it to higher-level authorities in a timely manner. Regulations on blame-taking and resignation of accountable officials have been promulgated in some provinces and municipalities, such as Chongqing and Shenzhen. Why did people try to cover things up when the Nandan mine accident took place? In addition to the nothing-more-than-formality penalty rules targeting those who are accountable, a key problem lies in the current civil service system in China. The current performance assessment systems for government officials are either too vague in criteria or too simple in indicator types, and the democratic review procedure is merely formality for formality’s sake. As a result, no sound incentive mechanisms are in place to assess the performance of government officials. It is common that those who work hard to prevent a crisis, without being known to the public, receive no rewards, while those who have a high profile in handling a crisis become heroes. In the meantime, the existing organizational hierarchy in China adds fuel to the flame. In such a hierarchy, a lower-level government body usually reports only good new, not bad news to the higher-level authority. That is, how they lie to 2

“New Developments in the Investigation of Fanshi Gold Mine Explosion: Two More Suspects Gave Themselves Up”. Legal Daily, July 15, 2002. 3 “On the Fuyuan Coal Mine Accident in Shanxi Province: ‘I don’t know” is a Misconduct”. China Youth, June 3, 2002. 4 Source: “Causes of July 17 Mine Accident in Nandan Found”. Labor and Health, 2001 (12).

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the public and hide things from the higher authority when a crisis breaks out, and the Nandan mine accident is only one typical case.5 To redress the malpractices caused by the dislocation of incentive and punishment mechanisms in crisis management, we need, in routine public decision-making, to truly observe the principles of the Three Represents, put people’s interest in the first place and make decisions in a scientific and democratic way to prevent crises at the source whenever possible. In nonprogrammed decision-making on a contingency, a practical and targeted crisis management plan is required. We need to adjust routine decisions as the situation requires to address both symptoms and root causes and create a reasonable public governance structure.

3.1.2 Contingency Plan Nonetheless, not all crises are avoidable through early warning. Many crises are actually unpredictable. Thus, we must be prepared for potential crises. To this end, we should enhance strategic planning, material reserves and long-term budgets and allocate funds for emergencies. It is particularly important to work out contingency plans and communication plans and establish key contacts in preparing for a crisis. For instance, most airliners have crisis management teams, special telecommunication equipment and detailed contingency plans in place. Large companies and banks in the world, such as NASDAQ and Lockheed Martin of the United States, have backup computer systems if the main systems fail in natural or other disasters. In contrast, many organizations in China have no contingency plans, and people have no idea about what to do when a crisis hits. Moreover, security systems for materials of strategic importance to the country are dangerously inadequate in China. For instance, tumbling petroleum prices in the world indicates that petroleum is a kind of resource of strategic importance. We must take actions in advance and move faster to build our petroleum security system by increasing the strategic reserves of petroleum and enhancing the ability to stabilize oil prices to deal with potential contingencies and ensure smooth progress in the modernization of China.

3.1.3 System Building in Organizations From an organizational perspective, a government and other organizations rely on a modern crisis management system that allows for consultation and decision-making to deal with crises in a fast, timely and effective way. Such a system serves as a platform where people respond to contingencies and crises and enhances the efficiency and quality of nonprogrammed decision-making and emergency relief of governments and organizations in a crisis. 5

Refer to the “principal-agent” model analysis of Nandan mine accident more details.

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For an organization, a sound crisis management system ensures coordination across different functions within the organization in the face of a crisis, but a complete set of contingency plans are also needed for crisis prevention. On the one hand, a crisis management system must define, through legislation, the government’s responsibility in dealing with a crisis. Such definitions are quite vague at present, and there are usually debates on what is “a serious issue” because seriousness is relative to both the administrative level of a government and the significance of the incident concerned. Clearly, definitions are yet to be provided. On the other hand, a crisis management system must contain anti-crisis strategies and long-term budgets, and it must also predict and offer countermeasures for early warnings. It must have procedures for the analysis of future trends and for the provision of response options to help with government crisis management. A government organizational system for crisis management should invite social organizations to participate in an orderly manner according to the latest trend in modern public governance to fully honor the principle of power separation for a sound modern crisis management system. According to Alvin Toffler, a government usually takes two ways to deal with the ever-increasing number of decisions it has to make: It either tries to consolidate the government’s centralized power by increasing the number of politicians, bureaucrats, experts and computers it employs, or lets lower-level staff or outsiders make more decisions, removing the burden of decisionmaking from the government which is already messy enough.6 As the public becomes more responsive to public policies and demands polycentric governance, it is perhaps possible for the government to establish a decentralized crisis management system. A decentralized government helps turn the governance system from a hierarchical structure to a structure based on participation and coordination, which is more flexible and innovative, with higher morality, a stronger sense of responsibility and higher efficiency.

3.1.4 Simulation Drills Simulation drills are an indispensable step in the preparation for crises, as crises are inevitable in many cases. Simulation drills serve as a preventive measure against potential crises. They help improve crisis early warning and monitoring systems and enhance the crisis awareness of the government and the general public. For instance, in fire drills, firefighters get to hone their skills for dealing with various problems they may face in a real fire, and at the same time, the general awareness of fire prevention and control is strengthened. In this way, firefighters get mentally and practically better prepared for a fire.

6

Osborne and Gaebler (1993, p. 234).

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3.2 Crisis Identification Identification is the second stage of crisis management. In this stage, symptoms of the onset of a crisis are detected and identified via crisis monitoring or information monitoring and processing. In the stage of identification, a feeling may turn into reality, and this stage is usually the most challenging.7 A crisis is identified in its prodromal stage and can still be avoided if the government and organizations concerned can deal with it in a timely manner. Prior to the onset of a crisis, conflicts of varying degrees may be detected in social life and social interactions. That is, when some major contradictions that cause a crisis take shape, accumulate, and express themselves in one way or another. The process is often dotted with small confrontational events and is the best time to prevent a crisis from breaking out. Therefore, the governmental departments concerned and top decision-makers must keep an eye on the social problems that cause public discontent and conflicts and try their best to keep those problems under control to satisfactorily solve the problems and nip the bud of a looming crisis.

3.2.1 Information Search Incomplete, delayed and inaccurate information in a crisis makes the situation more troublesome. Thus, information plays a key role in the effectiveness and efficiency of crisis management. The key to successful crisis identification is to search for all the information collected in relation to various social problems in a systematic manner and analyze the potential impact of such information on crisis management. Then, preventive measures should be taken accordingly to nip the bud of a crisis. In general, information search in the stage of crisis identification can be further divided into the three parts of information confirmation, collection and analysis.

3.2.1.1

Information Sources

In an ever-changing modern information society, people are exposed to a great amount of information of all sorts. In addition to conventional communication channels, such as newspapers, magazines, television and radio, the Internet has seen growing penetration and influence over the years, and the mass media has played an enormous role in shaping public values, strengthening public awareness and reflecting and guiding public opinions. Serious and extraordinarily serious accidents broke out one after another in Guangxi, Shaanxi, Shanghai and Jiangsu successively from July 2001 onwards, and news quickly spread via television, newspapers and the Internet. In the Nandan mine accident, journalists’ efforts revealed covered-up stories that attracted 7

Augustine et al. (2001, p. 14).

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3 Building a Modern Crisis Management System …

close attention from the CPC Central Committee and the State Council and finally received relevant investigation on track. A modern organization may acquire information on a crisis from many other sources and channels in addition to the media. For instance, the assessment of an outside organization and the self-evaluation of an organization itself should be considered. According to American crisis management expert Timothy Coombs, the information to be scanned through by an organization for crisis management mainly comes from three sources: problem management information, risk assessment information and relation information, which are the main information sources in the stage of crisis identification.8

3.2.1.2

Information Collection

With channels and sources for crisis-related information well identified, we then need to collect and sort out information relevant to potential crises that may happen to our organization and determine the core factors. Information may be collected in the following ways: First, information can be collected from the mass media. In a modern society, the mass media is undoubtedly an important political force, as it has contact with the vast majority of the general public. The mass media stands between the government and the public, forming a stable triangular structure with interactions. The mass media’s influence on politics, economy, technology and society has been on the rise all the time around the world and is changing people’s mind, way of production and lifestyle intentionally or unintentionally. The media is the mouthpiece of both the Party and the people. The public acquires information and understands the situation via the media, as media professionals are usually the first to obtain sufficient information to tell a complete story. At present, corruption is rather serious, extraordinarily serious accidents break out frequently, and the market economy is disordered. Therefore, the media is overloaded with the responsibility of supervision. In an information era, in particular, people acquire information mainly via the mass media. For example, people can obtain via mass media coverage and comments on various disastrous accidents and many academic documents online. Second, information can be collected from accident and hazard survey reports. What is the type of a confirmed crisis? What methods and measures shall crisis management personnel take accordingly? The conclusions depend on the accident and hazard survey reports that the government and other organizations formed in their routine work. Such a report shall include a list of all the crises that have occurred in the organization concerned or may occur in the future, categorize them, and provide solutions and remedy measures. Crises vary in type, have different causes, and take different forms. Their consequences also vary and require different response strategies and measures. Therefore, crisis management personnel need to categorize and analyze all sorts of crises to set up referential contingency plans and models in case 8

Coombs (1999, p. 23).

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similar crises break out in the future. Of course, in addition to accident and hazard survey reports, various other kinds of relevant records and archives should also serve as references. Third, information can be collected through field studies. Opinions can be solicited from the general public, experts, insiders of the organization concerned and relevant departments through seminars, meetings and investigation trips. On the one hand, there should be a sound regular meeting mechanism with meetings held weekly or monthly at a fixed venue to gather decision-makers or certain members of the organization for discussions or briefings to familiarize them with the information collected from the various parties involved. On the other hand, questionnaire surveys may be conducted if necessary. The information collected from long-term participation and observation is more reliable and better reveals the mentality of certain groups of stakeholders.

3.2.1.3

Information Analysis

After information on the onset of a crisis is collected, it needs to be sorted out and analyzed methodologically to determine the major problems and root causes. Analysis and assessment of crisis-related information may be done in two dimensions: probability, i.e., the possibility that the crisis may aggravate or run out of control; and damage, i.e., to what extent a crisis that is likely to run out of control will affect the organization’s normal operation and public image. The results of such analysis should be submitted to the organization’s crisis management team and top decision-makers so that they can take corresponding measures to control or respond to the crisis. The onset of a social crisis has its own features. It requires a multifaceted and multiangle analysis of the collected information to determine the symptoms that are most likely to worsen and cause serious damage to the organization and to contain such symptoms. On the one hand, regardless of the type of crisis, the causes, process and results are usually mingled. Thus, crisis management personnel must conduct an integrated analysis from technological, political, economic and social angles and determine factors that may aggravate the crisis. For instance, some technological companies may put problems in an incorrect category. The approach they take towards an accident or potential safety hazard is far from an integrated one; instead, such companies focus more on technological issues and ignore emotional factors. On the other hand, organizations, groups and individuals in a society can have rather different feelings towards the same social issue. Their opinions and ideas should be taken into account when crisis management personnel analyze relevant information. Simply put, attention should go to the following aspects in the information analysis part of crisis management: (1)

The general public. The general public is the consumer of an organization’s products and services. Their words and deeds affect the organization’s security.

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(2)

(3)

(4)

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Thus, the management personnel of an organization need to listen to the public and settle problems as soon as possible, if there is any. The public are usually the root of crises.9 The mass media. Coverage on the media, particularly the Internet, is the most convenient access to and the largest source of information. Thus, when a crisis breaks out, the first thing should be to send capable staff to investigate the causes and console the victims to keep the crisis within the minimum scope. In the meantime, the organization should get in touch with the media, especially media agencies known to be just and authoritative, and tell the truth, to get support and understanding from government institutions and the media. After the Toshiba notebook incident of March 1999 (in the United States) was reported by some Chinese media, it fermented fast. Thus, Takaya Koga, the director and vice president of Toshiba, made a special trip to Beijing to give an official explanation to Chinese consumers. The crisis soon passed. If Sanzhu Group had consoled the victim’s families immediately after the Changde incident and told the truth, it would probably have won the public’s understanding and reduced its losses by large margins. Members of the organization. Insiders of an organization are in contact with consumers of the organization’s products and services and have personal experience and feelings about potential crises that the organization may face. Thus, an organization should establish a communication system with full coverage for crisis-related information. Members should be encouraged to share their opinions and ideas and recognize weaknesses and crises that an individual or the organization as a whole face. Crisis management personnel are required to collect and process all such opinions and ideas. In contrast, an organization may face disastrous consequences if its crisis management personnel turn a blind eye to those information sources. Experts and scholars. As a special information source, experts play a unique role in information analysis in a crisis. They may contribute greatly by performing a technology-based analysis of crisis-related information, given their expertise and rich experience. However, in many cases, an expert think tank sees its status and role diminished. In a government authority where a politics-centered bureaucratic system prevails, experts’ advice may receive little attention. The previously mentioned tragedy of Challenger was, to some extent, the result of NASA’s organizational defects and problematic decisionmaking process. As Barbara Romzek and Melvin Dubnick put it, NASA shifted from a professional accountability system (the key to which is deference to expertise within the agency) to a bureaucratic accountability system (in which there are an organized and legitimate relationship between superior and subordinate in which orders should be followed without question and close supervision or a surrogate system of standard operating procedures or clearly stated rules and regulations).10

Augustine et al. (2001, p. 17). Romzek and Dubnick (1987). Quoted from Zhu and Ma (2002, p. 184).

10

3.2 Crisis Identification

(5)

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Friendly and hostile countries. Social and economic life is increasingly globalized today, and a crisis is more international. Crises reach well beyond the place where they first break out and may become global issues. Thus, in the analysis of crisis-related information during crisis identification, it is important to examine the behaviors and attitudes of other countries, particularly those hostile to China, when we look at international tensions, economic sanctions and local wars (e.g., the collision between Chinese and American aircraft and Sino-Japanese disputes over agricultural products) that may have global influence and be related to China’s position in the world arena.

Of course, the collection and identification of information at the onset of a crisis is an integral part of an organization’s routine information management work. The only thing that may distinguish the collection and identification of information at the onset of a crisis from the rest of routine information management is that crisis awareness seems to play a greater role in it.

3.3 Isolation It usually takes time for the situation to grow from the prodromal stage to the outbreak of a crisis. First, the situation needs certain trigger events to reach the required “combustion temperature” before a crisis breaks out on a full scale. Second, it takes time for a contingency to escalate into a full-scale crisis. The destructive power of a crisis strengthens as the crisis escalates. During this process, the crisis is likely to produce more casualties and heavier property damage, and society tends to be more chaotic. Accordingly, crisis management personnel face more difficult tasks, a tighter schedule and greater pressure during this process. As a crisis escalates and the situation worsens, the organization in the crisis must activate the “firewall” function of its crisis management authority to curb the crisis and ensure the normal operation of the other sections of the organization.

3.3.1 Principles of Choice It is undoubtedly important to resolve decision-making during the stage of crisis isolation. However, in a crisis, crisis management personnel are under huge pressure both for time and for information. Thus, they first need to establish an effective framework of thinking to grasp and evaluate what is going on as fast as possible to make decisions effectively and efficiently. It helps crisis management personnel observe the following principles, keep calm and be well informed when a crisis escalates to make the right decisions.

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3.3.1.1

Collecting Information Promptly and Identifying Major Stakeholders

In the emergency stage, a crisis begins to develop without following any set pattern, and related information is highly unorganized. Accordingly, an organization’s decision-makers generally cannot obtain comprehensive information and thus are unable to prioritize appropriately. The Kemeny Commission mandated to investigate the accident of Three Mile Island wrote in its investigation report that over 100 alarms sounded in the first several minutes when the accident took place, but there was not a single system that could stop unimportant alarms so that the operators could focus on the important ones and that the information contained in the alarms was too vague to be understood.11 Thus, the prerequisite for prioritizing tasks during the stage of crisis isolation is to collect as much crisis-related information as possible and quickly identify key stakeholders involved, including people, money, materials, responsibility and more, to lay a foundation for preliminary disaster assessment in the next step.

3.3.1.2

Always Placing People in the First Place

A crisis leads to casualties, property losses, and damage to production, living facilities, infrastructure and services, disrupting the normal order of production and life, breaking normal organizational boundaries and severely hindering the normal operation of social mechanisms. Safety and rescue become people’s first needs. Nonetheless, there is usually more than one objective in crisis management. For instance, in the hostage crisis of the United States and Iraq, some held that the national interests of the United States should be placed in the first place, while others insisted that the 52 hostages’ life and properties should be protected, and still others thought that the United States should improve its international reputation in the Middle East.12 The key short-term objective of crisis management is to reduce casualties and property losses. People’s safety of life is the core. Thus, when we prioritize rescue tasks in the stage of crisis isolation, we must put lives first and give top priority to people. It complies with the principle of honoring civil rights in a crisis. Since a crisis is a situation containing unusual hazards, governments tend to preserve major at the cost of minor interests. They set some restrictions on the basic human rights stipulated in the Constitution to better protect people’s civil rights. Basic human rights include the right to life, freedom, property, well-being and equality, among which the right to life is fundamental. Thus, in a severe crisis, top priority should be given to saving lives, i.e., protecting people’s right to life. To achieve this goal, crisis management personnel may take the following actions when necessary: requisitioning vehicles to transport the severely injured, taking possession of medicines or food necessary to save their own or others’ lives, settling people or 11 12

Augustine et al. (2001, p. 23). Hong (1999, p. 157).

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families down in unoccupied houses in case of a threat to safety, entering a civil residence or a building without permission to fetch life-saving apparatus or conduct rescue or protection work.

3.3.1.3

Preliminary Assessment

A preliminary assessment is necessary for the prioritization of tasks in the stage of crisis isolation and for making overall considerations realistically and practically. Generally, a crisis is assessed in three dimensions: severity, urgency and future trend. Severity refers to the potential destructiveness and seriousness of consequences of a crisis. For example, a less severe crisis may lead to casualties and economic losses, while a severe crisis would impair a country’s political, economic and social stability. As a rule, crisis management personnel should focus on solving issues that seriously affect people’s safety and health. Urgency refers to the role that time plays in dealing with issues in a crisis. Some issues require immediate response. For instance, when a nuclear explosion takes place, the first thing is to evacuate people from the contaminated site as soon as possible. Future trends refer to the potential threats that the crisis may bring, which, although can be quite unpredictable, must still be estimated as much as possible. With an assessment of issues to be dealt with in a crisis, crisis management personnel could determine the order of priority and focus on the most important things. A crisis management team can invite experts for technical appraisal, accident analysis and property loss evaluation, if necessary.

3.3.2 Crisis “Firewall” Crisis management in the stage of crisis isolation is to prevent a crisis from spreading and getting worse. Thus, crisis management personnel must determine the order of priority in a specific situation, despite great pressure, and the top priority should always be to minimize casualties and property losses. It is the responsibility of the crisis management plans and crisis management team established through the organization’s routine work to achieve this goal. In some cases, an organization’s leadership should consider taking part in the crisis management effort in accordance with the development of the crisis. In this way, the dedicated crisis management authority and staff will be able to fulfill their role of a “firewall” in a crisis.

3.3.2.1

Enabling the Crisis Management Authority

When a crisis breaks out, an organization should immediately enable its contingency plan and ask its dedicated crisis management staff to take action and respond to the crisis so that the crisis management work is done with clear targets and division of

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responsibilities and the “fire” of the crisis can be prevented from spreading to the entire organization. Therefore, an organization must have a qualified emergency team taking charge of crisis response, handling, recovery and tracking. In case of an emergency, the team is mandated to deal with the situation, investigate to find its causes and symptoms while protecting valuable clues, strengthen defense, conduct vulnerability analysis, tackle with source, rectify the system in the shortest time possible to put the organization back to normal operation, improve the monitoring system, and submit detailed records and reports of what happened, so that the response process is transparent and the impact of the crisis is cleared. It is necessary to enable a dedicated crisis management authority and let the dedicated staff deal with a crisis while others remain engaged in normal operation. In this way, an organization’s normal operation would continue despite occasional incidents. Of course, in a complete “firewall” management and control system, centralized firewall management is conducted, and the firewall should be monitored around the clock in real time. The crisis management team is required to submit regular service reports, conduct regular comprehensive analyses of firewall logs, put forth suggestions on security strategies and adjust security strategies based on specific conditions.

3.3.2.2

Getting an Organization’s Leadership Involved

In many cases, a crisis has a larger scope of impact and may paralyze production and life in the organization involved and put things into complete chaos. In this case, it would be difficult for the crisis management team alone to deal with the situation, and the organization’s leadership must be involved to ensure that the crisis is handled with authority and in a mandatory way and that sufficient coordination is in place to mobilize relevant functional departments and members in the organization to deal with the crisis. Moreover, if necessary, in specific conditions, when the organization’s leadership takes charge of crisis response, it will help with the smooth communication between the organization and the outside, demonstrate the organization’s confidence and resolution to solve the problems, and thus maintain the organization’s public image and socials status. When there is an ethnic dispute and riot, it is wise for the highest authority of the country to send a leader who enjoys great reputation at the place concerned to deal with the issue, and the same is true for an enterprise to deal with extremely serious crises. In the Exxon Valdez oil leakage incident, Exxon paid little attention to the incident, and the president did not take action immediately. As a result, Exxon sank itself into a rather awkward and passive situation in the crisis.

3.3.2.3

Keeping Other Sections in the Organization in Normal Operation

In many cases, a crisis usually affects only one function in an organization and requires prompt actions from the organization’s crisis management team. However,

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such actions shall not affect the organization’s normal operation as a whole unless the crisis sinks the entire organization into disorder, paralysis and severe chaos (such as large-scale social unrest). For instance, when the 9/11 attacks hit, the U.S. federal government evacuated important departments, including the Department of Justice, the Department of State, the Department of the Treasury and the Department of Defense, and deployed fully armed soldiers and policemen in key areas. In the meantime, the House of Representatives and the Senate were evacuated as well. However, the two houses went on working and fulfilling their duties. It is crucial to obtain backup resources (such as spare devices, alternative paths, etc.) ready beforehand to fully ensure the normal operation of functions other than those severely affected in an organization in a crisis. A contingency plan must include backing up all key resources in the organization’s systems. Backup resources must be renewed according to the actual conditions. When a crisis breaks out or a failure takes place, the resources affected are to be moved out of the scene, and backup resources are to take their places. For instance, many enterprises have spare storage equipment that is used only when those currently in use are damaged or fail. Norway used to be rich in energy resources. However, since free competition was introduced into the market, the reserves continued to decrease, and the country is now on the verge of an energy crisis. In contrast, Beijing has contingency plans for water resource emergencies in the case of consecutive dry years. Therefore, as a crisis is still in the making, it is crucial to have backup resources and try to increase reserves. The U.S.’s Enduring Constitutional Government (ECG) initiative clarifies the principles, methods and procedures for the federal government to use spare resources in case of a large-scale attack to guarantee the normal operation of state power.

3.3.3 Internal Operation of an Organization Information becomes a determining factor once a crisis breaks out. The timely collection and submission of crisis-related information and effective analysis of relevant data usually play an important role in crisis management. Thus, an organization shall provide all of its members and stakeholders with crisis-related information in a timely manner instead of leaving them to obtain information on their own organization from the mass media or other channels. According to Norman R. Augustine, the management (of an enterprise) should never ignore those who show special concern for the organization, even if the management has to deal with the media.13 In fact, what people are most concerned about is usually not the event itself but the management’s attitude towards it. As indicated in the aforementioned events, both internal and external communication are extraordinarily complicated and hard to navigate. In a modern society with highly developed information technology, mass media gains influence over society, 13

Augustine et al. (2001, p. 26).

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and things can change every moment during the outbreak of a crisis. It is therefore highly likely that decision-makers of an organization have different understandings of the situation. To ensure continuous and consistent information disclosure, it is better to appoint one spokesperson whose words count and will stop rumours from unauthorized channels and keep people informed so that they have the ground for taking measures to protect themselves. It is noteworthy that an organization’s decision-makers and management staff have to listen to others in an effective way so that information communication plays a better role in the stage of crisis isolation. At this time, different voices from either the inside or the outside of the organization are particularly precious, and those who have a different opinion from others must be allowed to speak up.

3.4 Management When a crisis is aggravates to a certain degree, it severely damages the basic structures and mechanisms that an organization relies upon, and social order tends to be seriously hampered. The production and life of members of the organization involved are also very likely to be severely affected. In such a circumstance, crisis management staff need to determine some practical ways to deal with the situation. For example, when the Gulf Crisis broke out, the international community and the World Peace Organization sent peacekeeping forces there, urged the two parties to start peace talks and provided aid for refugees to keep the situation from getting worse and mitigate its consequences. In a critical situation, a government may take measures such as general mobilization, martial law, military control, curfew, and suspension of the Constitution or related laws and regulations to get the situation under control within the shortest time, restore social order fast and minimize the damage and losses caused. When crisis-related issues are solved, the crisis is likely to be mitigated, but if there is no ultimate solution to the issues, the crisis is merely eased temporarily and can probably escalate once again.

3.4.1 Principles for Human Resource Allocation Human resources are a key restraint in a crisis. When a crisis threatens life, health and the safety of assets and properties, the normal order based on the Constitution and laws tends to paralyze, and people may experience mental instability. In such a circumstance, the top leader of an organization is required to take charge and calm people down. In the meantime, other sections and members of the organization need to maintain good coordination in their response to the crisis, and various resources should be put to use to get things back under control as soon as possible. Additionally, in the case of an emergency caused by a technical failure (e.g., leakage of hazardous or radioactive substances, dam collapse, resource shortage, fire, etc.), the response

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should be scientific and technically reasonable. Blind actions should be avoided by all means, and technical experts should be engaged. A leading figure of the organization on the scene shows that the organization takes responsibility and concerns about the situation, and this tends to build solidarity and authority and encourage the staff. Additionally, a leading figure on the scene would better mobilize internal and external resources and help with communication so that decisions can be implemented in an effective way. According to foreign experts on anti-crisis strategy, a leader on the scene usually has three tasks to fulfill: command, control and communication, which are collectively known as the 3Cs.14 In the complicated situation of a crisis, such as an international conflict, ethnic riot or social unrest, an organization’s decision-makers and crisis management staff, which equal the top decision-making and leading body of a country, need to take action with extreme caution and prudence. In case of an emergency caused by a technical failure, decision-makers should send technical experts to the scene immediately to join the crisis management team when there are no technical consultants on the site so that the crisis is dealt with in a scientific way. Otherwise, a technical crisis would lead to secondary disasters if it is handled improperly due to the lack of guidance or support from qualified professionals.

3.4.2 Real-Time Decision-Making In a crisis, the situation changes fast with great uncertainties and is potentially destructive. Therefore, decisions shall be made within a very short time period. Time is thus a scarce resource. Opportunities are transient. Thus, both the order of priority and the decision on a leading figure going to the scene shall be made fast to win more time to get problems under control and solved. First, decisions shall be made fast. An organization’s top decision-makers and crisis management personnel must be capable of making decisions fast. It is a fundamental factor for the organization’s survival. They shall be capable of making fast judgments, responses, decision-making, actions and corrections. When an opportunity appears, the organization shall make a decision fast, based upon scientific investigation of crisis-related information and accurate forecast of future development, to seize the opportunity to take the crisis under control and get it settled; otherwise, the opportunity may slip away. Second, over-analysis shall be avoided. With limited information on a crisis, an organization’s decision-makers and crisis management personnel should not hesitate too much or perform excessive analysis, or heavier losses may be incurred. On September 30, 1999, the T¯okai nuclear power plant in Ibaraki Prefecture 140 km north of Tokyo experienced severe radioactive leakage. However, relevant officials of the Japanese government paid little attention to the accident. They did not see how 14

Sassa (1994).

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serious the accident was, either. As a result, the accident was left unattended to for a while and the delay in response was thought to be similar to what happened after the Great Hanshin Earthquake in 1995.

3.4.3 Media Communication News media, as one of the major partners in crisis management, plays an extraordinarily important role and is loaded with multiple tasks in a crisis. A crisis management organization naturally controls the sources and dissemination channels of information purposely and selectively to keep social order under control, prevent the crisis from escalating and avoid unnecessary panics. Thus, a crisis management organization should put the power of the media into good use. To put the power of the media into good use, a crisis management organization must observe the following principles. First, it takes the media as an ally and partner to publicize and explain via the media the organization’s crisis management policies and hold the direction of public opinion. Second, it deals with hostile media agencies in clever ways. Third, it keeps an authoritative and mainstream voice to rival misleading rumours.15

3.5 Post-crisis Management The end of the crisis management stage is never the end of the entire process of crisis management or the completion of crisis management tasks; instead, an organization’s crisis management steps from this point into a new stage known as postcrisis management. If an organization has fared well in the previous four stages of crisis management, the stage of post-crisis management will “provide an opportunity at least to make up for part of the losses and redress the mess.”16 In the stage of postcrisis management, an organization shall focus on real-life crisis issues and clarify the objectives and policy orientation for its post-crisis work. To achieve this goal, an organization needs to know about, define and fulfill two major tasks. First, to satisfactorily deal with the aftermath, the organization immediately solves and controls the social problems that are related to the crisis and may cause a new crisis to consolidate the fruit of its crisis management. Second, to benefit from the crisis, which means that the organization makes detailed analysis of the causes and crisis management process and finds ways to improve its techniques, management, structure and operational procedure, to realize necessary organizational reform.

15 16

Refer to Sect. 4.2 “Media’s Role in Crises” in Chap. 4 for more details. Augustine et al. (2001, p. 29).

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3.5.1 Deal with the Aftermath A situation is fully under control, and the crisis is finally solved thanks to efforts made in the previous four stages of crisis management. However, instability, tension and imbalance caused by the crisis may continue to exist for quite a long time. Additionally, a crisis is evidently caused by various reasons, undergoes myriad changes, and features interactions between various factors, thus an epitome of various complicated and sharp issues. Thus, a government or organization facing the heavy pressure of an acute emergency should look back on what it has gone through in the post-crisis period to ensure that the crisis is fully solved.

3.5.1.1

Turning Danger into an Opportunity

An organization may start to decline or thrive from a crisis. Whatever the crisis is, an organization should nurture the public’s crisis consciousness, improve their crisiscoping capacity and enhance society’s resistance to adversity by making use of the “teaching materials” from the crisis. Thus, an organization shall not stop its crisis management work at the end of a crisis; instead, it shall, based upon what it has done to deal with the crisis in various stages, strive to turn danger into an opportunity, by updating its ideas, products and structure, reshaping its public image, and making full use of the crisis as a thrust for development and social integration, to keep the vitality of the organization and social system. For example, the former Soviet Union strengthened its communication and contact with the West after the great earthquake in Armenia on December 7, 1988.

3.5.1.2

Restoration and Reconstruction

The damage caused by a crisis to the existence and stability of an organization or society is far beyond what is normal. It causes imbalance and chaos in part or the whole of an organization or society, so that the afflicted lose the harmonious and stable social environment and are exposed to a highly unstable situation. Crises caused by natural disasters and technical failures, in particular, usually destroy key infrastructure, in addition to heavy casualties, so that normal production and life are interrupted. Thus, the government and relevant organizations should conduct prompt self-help production activities for the afflicted to quickly restore normal production and business. These activities include providing financial aid for enterprises to cover their losses in the crisis and help them get production started again, organizing and adjusting supply and distribution to provide the public with necessary daily supplies in a timely manner to ensure normal life, persuading those who engaged in conflicts to return to their posts and explaining the importance of production to solving a crisis and social contradictions, and explaining related social welfare policies.17 17

Hu (1999, pp. 1281–1282).

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Generally, during the stages of crisis isolation and management in a disaster, an organization has protected afflicted people’s property and life the best, as they can via damage analysis, medical service provision, temporary accommodation and preparation for reconstruction. Then, the organization immediately comes to the stage of restoration and reconstruction, during which it tries its best to rebuild infrastructure in a distressed area, restore normal life, and reinstate confidence in the afflicted.

3.5.1.3

Care for the Afflicted

After a large-scale crisis, the government and other organizations must try to win extensive support for all walks of life during the recovery stage. To achieve this goal in crisis management, it needs to do a good job in caring for the afflicted in the aftermath of the crisis. First, a victim assistance system should be established and strengthened to minimize the social disturbance caused by the crisis. Crisis management personnel are required to protect direct victims and provide them, as well as their close relatives, with relevant information and to protect all potential victims and keep them informed to avoid new harm via effective preventive measures. Additionally, a crisis causes violent social disturbance and great panics among the public; thus, crisis management personnel are required to establish and strengthen a psychological assistance system to keep the public reassured. Second, stakeholders shall be differentiated. Stakeholders may cover a wide range, including those who lead and are directly involved in a crisis (usually a social crisis), direct victims (e.g., those who died in a mine accident) and indirect victims (e.g., families of the dead). How an organization deals with the aftermath involves legal issues, emotions of crisis participants and families, and public support. For the last two issues, there should be a sound victim assistance system, as mentioned above. Dealing with the aftermath of a crisis is rather complicated in regard to issues related to those who are involved in the crisis; thus, it is likely to attract public concern and have a profound impact on the public’s future behaviors in a similar crisis. There must be special caution in this regard. Third, those who are involved in a crisis shall be handled appropriately. Generally, those who lead and are directly engaged in a crisis shall be treated “in accordance with the crisis’s characters and direct social impacts.”18 A handful of diehards who harbor personal ambitions shall be heavily punished. The majority of followers shall be educated to win them back to the side of the management personnel. Participants in a conflict (leaders, core members, organizers, outside organizers and general participants) shall be treated differently and appropriately. The general principle is as follows: Specific cases are differentiated and applicable policies strictly defined to win support from the majority and isolate only a small number of participants.

18

Hu (1999, p. 1282).

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3.5.2 Independent Investigation System The government and other organizations are required to create a third-party-like independent investigation system during the stage of postcrisis management to identify the causes, draw lessons and minimize the possibilities of similar disasters and accidents in the future. In the meantime, the independent investigation body should take charge of issues such as accountability identification, dispute settlement and compensation allocation.

3.5.2.1

Creation of an Independent Investigation System

There must be a judicial system and an independent investigation system separate from the executive system and with considerable authority to determine the causes of the crisis in a fair and just manner. In the meantime, the independent investigation body, as an inspection institution, should be entitled to the release of investigation reports and recommendations to the media to win public support and push for relevant rectifications and improvements. Currently, it is common to have an inspection institution independent of the government in Western countries to oversee the enforcement of laws and conduct various independent investigations. For instance, the Office of the Swedish Parliamentary Ombudsmen is a dedicated agency for legal supervision independent of the executive branch of the government that is elected by the Riksdag, i.e., the Swedish parliament according to the Constitution and relevant laws. Initially, a Parliamentary Ombudsman monitored the work of the executive and judicial branches of the government, yet in modern days, the Office of the Parliamentary Ombudsmen ensures that laws and statutes are fully abided by and accepts citizens’ complaints against any illegal or unfair administrative actions by administrative institutions or public servants in exercising public power. The office is mandated to launch independent investigations. It is noteworthy that when an independent investigation system with authority is established, the government and other organizations also need to strengthen their selfregulation and supervision of industrial associations, establish sound quality control systems, build dedicated supervision teams, create trade investigation commissions, disciplinary committees and technical evaluation boards, and consolidate the authority of industrial regulation.

3.5.2.2

Open Identification of the Causes

A crisis is usually caused by multiple social reasons. “In a sense, a crisis is the externalized expression of latent social and institutional problems in a certain period.”19 Thus, a third-party-like independent investigation body is needed to identify the 19

Hu (1999, p. 1191).

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causes of a crisis in an open manner from political, economic and cultural angles. This investigation body needs to determine the causes, casualties and property losses, examine whether emergency response measures are appropriate and substantially carried out, investigate the character and liability of the accident and give suggestions on how to deal with those who are responsible for the accident. The commission also needs to make suggestions on how to deal with the accident and put forth measures to prevent similar accidents. The investigation report must be published as soon as possible so that the public has a clear idea of the crisis’s truth and society draws lessons from it. On the other hand, the organization draws lessons from the crisis and improves its techniques, management, structure and operation to avoid similar crises in the future.

3.5.3 Diagnosis of the Sequelae of a Crisis 3.5.3.1

Post-crisis Social Psychology

Once bitten, twice shy. After experiencing in person some dangers or threats, people are likely to be enveloped by a negative emotion known as anxiety. A crisis usually causes enormous casualties and property losses and interrupts and damages normal production and life. A natural disaster, particularly flood or draught, is powerful enough to destroy the results of a long time of strenuous work and take lives. Thus, the public generally experiences psychological rebound and depression after a crisis, which is known as posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Traumatized in a crisis, people usually show fear and stress in various forms and to different degrees. They sometimes try to avoid the environment where they are hit by the crisis. For instance, many people fear sand and wind after experiencing disastrous sandstorms. Once there is a forecast of sand and wind, they fear it would be a sandstorm again. The dioxin pollution incident made many people in Belgium and France suspicious about canned coke.

3.5.3.2

Post-crisis Social Structure

A crisis disturbs social structure and functions. In disasters caused by social and political reasons, in particular, such as social unrests, ethnic riots and terrorist activities, the government generally sends national armed forces, security guards and other emergency aid forces to respond. In case of tension during the crisis, armed forces are sent to impose a curfew, and the government declares a state of emergency of the country or a certain area. There are sometimes political, economic and social turbulences in the country, which may result in distortion of social structure and functions and even stagnation in economic and social development. Therefore, once the crisis situation is fully under control or the crisis is about to be satisfactorily solved, to restore normal social structure and functions as soon as possible, the government and

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other crisis management authorities shall, according to specific conditions, restrict the crisis management power of the government and other organizations, end the public state of emergency, and cancel special control measures such as martial law, curfew, military control and other extreme coercive measures.

3.5.3.3

Post-crisis Learning Mechanism

Each crisis actually brings an organization new experience from which it may benefit: It reveals problems in the existing crisis management system and makes it possible to make corrections and improvements. “Discovering, fostering and harvesting potential opportunities for success is the essence of crisis management; but misjudgment and aggravation of the situation is a key characteristic of poor crisis management.”20 Thus, to deal with a crisis, a third-party-like independent investigation system is needed to identify the causes, draw lessons and minimize the possibilities of similar disasters and accidents in the future. However, in reality, some authorities and sectors in China have been perfunctory in dealing with crises and have failed to draw lessons from accidents. As a result, similar crises have taken place time and again. For example, between November 1997 and December 9, 2000, Zhengzhou saw four cases of bank robbery in which the robbers committed felony in broad daylight. China has seen production safety accidents in recent years. At the end of 2000, 280 people were killed or went missing in the 11/24 ship accident in Yantai. After that, there were evidently more and frequent grave and extraordinarily serious safety accidents in China. It is extremely disturbing that some grave and extraordinarily serious safety accidents took place time and again, despite preventive rules put in place after another. Leaders of the Party and the central government have reiterated the importance of production safety. Relevant authorities have promulgated many a variety of implementation measures. However, why did accidents take place time and again, despite all these? Loopholes in management are the root. Frequent accidents of heavy casualties may seem accidental, but in fact, they result from the fact that a handful of officials fail to draw lessons and treat the safety of people’s lives and property with indifference. For example, after the extraordinarily serious explosion on March 11, 2000, in a fireworks factory in Pingxiang, Jiangxi Province, president Jiang Zemin gave a long instruction, asking local governments to draw lessons from the accident and place the safety of people’s lives and property in the first place. Nonetheless, relevant authorities simply turned a deaf ear to this. In Shangli County, where the 3/11 explosion took place, another similar explosion took place in June of the same year and caused casualties. Jiangmen Tuchu Fireworks Factory of Guangdong Province saw a couple of fires and was ordered to make rectifications by relevant authorities in April 2001. However, the factory took no action and soon saw the tragedy of the 6/30 explosion.

20

Augustine et al. (2001, p. 5).

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3.5.4 Post-crisis Organizational Reform A crisis is usually a key driving force for organizational reform in a modern society. When an organization is unable to recover from and check its structural and functional distortions when the situation is normal, a crisis serves as an external stimulant and driving force that pushes the organization to take action. “Thanks to it, society adapts to new environments. A flexible society benefits from conflicts because conflicts try to keep on despite changed conditions by improving and creating regulations.” However, “a rigid social system allows no conflict and attempts to stop necessary adjustments, so that the danger of a catastrophic meltdown is maximized.”21 For a modern government in charge of public administration, in particular, a crisis “is a symbol of danger, warning those who sit in the center of political power that the current political, economic and social development situation has aroused public anger and resistance, and if the government keeps overlooking those who are deprived of materials and other social benefits and launches no effective political and social reform, the social system will be on the verge of a collapse”.22 Thus, an organizational reform brought about by a crisis is based on the stimulus– response model for organizational behavior and strategy. If an organization, in a crisis, makes fast and detailed analysis of the causes, draws lessons from the crisis, responds to the demands of the social system, adapts itself to new environments, improves its techniques, management, structure and operation, and launches progressive or gradual reforms, the crisis will then help maintain the organizations’ vitality. Generally, an organization launches reforms in the following aspects after a crisis.

3.5.4.1

Ideas Updated

After a crisis, an organization must update its ideas and give up the doctrine that “peace reigns, without crisis consciousness.” Members shall strengthen their awareness of crisis. Crisis management shall be well integrated into the routine management of an organization. Routine management is the basis of the management of an organization. However, crisis management shall be an integral part of it: What does the organization do once a crisis breaks out? What does the organization do to prevent and avoid a crisis once there are risks so that dangers will not grow into a crisis? A modern organization faces ever-increasing risks and uncertainties and has to think about anti-crisis measures in crisis management.

3.5.4.2

Systems Improved

In designing a management system for a modern government or organization, the first thing is to set rules for regular management activities, but this is far from enough, 21 22

Coser (1956, p. 114). Hu (1999, p. 1211).

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as crises and risks are always there. Therefore, in addition to regular management activities, there must be anti-crisis and anti-risk plans based upon the analysis of threats and risks. Furthermore, there must be more than one plan for this purpose so that the organization can have options once crises and risks take place. A key step to improve a crisis management system is to legitimize the principles of contingency management. Governments around the globe have experienced various crises and institutionalized government authority, responsibility and measures in crisis management, including Emergency Law, Martial Law and Law on Rescue and Assistance in Natural Disasters. The Martial Law of the People’s Republic of China adopted on March 1, 1996, institutionalizes the responses to unrests, riots or serious disturbances that severely threaten national unity, security or public security. As heresies grow in some places in China and severely destroy social order and stability, the Chinese legislators worked out an anti-heresy law to keep an effective watch on and fight cult gangs like Falun Gong. On October 25, 2001, the NPC’s Internal and Judicial Affairs Committee submitted the NPC Standing Committee’s Decision on Keeping Watch on and Fighting Cult Gangs (draft) to the 12th meeting of the Ninth National People’s Congress for review and approval. To strengthen the supervision and management of production safety and prevent and reduce relevant accidents, the Standing Committee of the Ninth National People’s Congress adopted the Law of the People’s Republic of China on Work Safety at its 28th meeting on June 29, 2002, and the document took effect on November 1, 2002. Another way to improve a crisis management system is to set up a contingency backup system, risk funds, insurance systems and other backup resources to ensure an organization’s normal operation in case of a crisis. Just as a country in wartime needs to store armaments, war resources and other backup forces, an organization must build its strategic reserves in case of any unexpected conditions. For example, a country must build national grain, commodity, oil, medicine, fruit and vegetable reserves to meet people’s basic living needs in failing years and strategically build reserve systems for funding, technology, energy and other important strategic materials to safeguard national security and stability. In the meantime, social security should be improved by building up various insurance systems to minimize the risks and losses caused by certain types of contingencies and crises.

3.5.4.3

Institution Building

Experiencing various crises, an organization needs to analyze and review its shortcomings in techniques, management, structure and operation and then work out suggestions and measures to improve its institution. On the one hand, an organization shall check in a timely manner for problems in its existing functions (the crisis management function in particular) and put forth methodological suggestions on the correction and improvement concerning their competency, authority and crisis response principles. For instance, in the investigation of the Challenger accident, quite a number of problems in NASA management were exposed. On the other hand, and more importantly, the organization needs to analyze and review the crisis’s causes

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and the process of crisis management, and based upon forecast and judgment of the characters and features of various crises in new conditions and environments, establish a new crisis response institution or set up a crisis response institution by merging existing crisis response forces. Many crisis management organizations have been established in China and have developed in ever-changing situations. For instance, to strengthen the supervision of production safety in China and prevent and reduce various fatal accidents, the State Administration of Work Safety (the State Administration of Coal Mine Safety) was officially set up on February 26, 2001, as a state-level administration in charge of work safety, supervising work safety and coal mine safety across the country. The administration is under the jurisdiction of the State Economic and Trade Commission.23 As social and economic development progresses and people’s living standards increase, citizens pay more attention to public security, and urban management staff need to shoulder heavier workloads dealing with contingencies. It is necessary to establish emergency response centers and improve, deepen and standardize the joint actions of social services to further enhance emergency response capacity and urban management. On November 11, 2001, China’s first urban emergency response system went into trial operation in Nanning. Different police forces answer alarms, send callouts and share resources on the same platform and take joint actions under unified command.24

3.5.4.4

Policy Improved

For the government and other organizations, a crisis is in essence a typical issue of nonprogrammed decision-making. Dealing with a contingency is a non-normal decision-making process. “As a part of political reform and development, a crisis is an external driving force that pushes a rational and vibrant government to improve its public policies.”25 When the government and other organizations are able to openly identify a crisis’s causes, adjust its policy orientation and values, and understand and try to satisfy reasonable interests and demands of target groups, augmenting their status in the new policy objectives, then a crisis will play a positive role in the organization’s policy assessment and early warning system and better serve as “the society’s safety valve,” so that the organization may turn a crisis into an opportunity to improve its policies.

23

“State Administration of Work Safety Established Today”. http://finance.sina.com.cn/g/39150. html. 24 “China’s First Urban Emergency Response System in Pilot Run in Nanning”. People’s Daily. Online: http://www.poepledaily.edu.cn/GB/shizheng/19/20111112/603481.html, 12 November 2001. 25 Hu (1999, p. 1212).

Chapter 4

Building a Modern Crisis Management System: Organizational Behavioral Analysis

All governments in the world attach great importance to crisis response. To prevent and minimize damages to people’s lives and properties, normal government administration and basic social order caused by a public emergency, all countries have put in place measures and policies to deal with crises related to public emergencies. These measures fall mainly into two categories. The first is laws that stipulate government duties and power in crisis response, setting the rule of law as the basic principle to follow in dealing with emergencies. The second is an effective national crisis alert and fast response mechanism, which minimizes the losses to people’s lives and properties and damages to normal social order caused by a public emergency. In an era of globalization, in particular, with rapid IT development, governments should pay special attention to media relations at times of crisis and try to be their allies. In the meantime, given the extensive damages caused by crises to public security, it is also extremely important to establish and improve a comprehensive crisis response network across the whole society to enhance the overall crisis response capability. Based on the analysis above, this chapter, from the perspective of organizational behavior, focuses on four topics concerning the building of a modern crisis management system: government function during a crisis, the role of the media, crisis response network, and legal principles. It then goes on to point out aspects that the government should pay special attention to during a crisis or emergency.

4.1 Government Performance During Crisis When taking crisis management measures, all countries attach great importance to the government’s role in coordination. They either set up a special emergency management institution or formulate a widely applicable emergency law. Regardless, the most prominent feature of the government in crisis response is that they have two fundamental systems for emergency response, i.e., the alert system and the fast response system, which are proven very helpful for improving the government’s © Social Sciences Academic Press 2022 L. Xue et al., Crisis Management in China, Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-8706-8_4

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crisis response capability. The alert system can help the government make a thorough estimation of all possible crisis scenarios and prepare so that it will not panic at critical moments and can develop the best response strategy. The fast response system can improve the government’s crisis response capability and maintain its legitimacy and authority to the largest extent during a public emergency.

4.1.1 Crisis Management and Government Image As crises seriously damage public security and public interests, governments should deal with them in a timely, effective and calm manner. If a crisis is not timely and properly dealt with, it may cause casualties and losses in a less serious scenario and affect a country’s political, economic and social stability in a more serious scenario.

4.1.1.1

Crisis: The Watershed of an Organization’s Future

A crisis is an opportunity for an organization and a watershed of its future.1 It can be helpful. American scholar L. Coser once analyzed the functions of a social conflict in great detail. On the one hand, he admitted that a social conflict can sometimes be a negative splitting factor that undermined unity and might even disintegrate an organization. On the other hand, Coser explained the corrective function of a social conflict: It builds an organization’s ability to adapt and adjust and plays some decisive roles in specific groups and interpersonal relationships. For example, it may help maintain the boundary of a group and prevent members from quitting.2 Therefore, for any organization, a crisis can be the start of a decline or an opportunity for it to begin a new chapter and thrive. In which direction the organization goes in and after a crisis depends on how heavy the pressure is and, more importantly, on how well the organization deals with the crisis. As public service providers, governments formulate public policies, manage public affairs and exercise public power. Therefore, they are in a unique position in crisis management. Studies show that crisis management is a comprehensive test of the government’s management capability and efficiency and an important reflection of the government’s ruling power. Government performance in crisis management is a source and foundation of the government’s political legitimacy and good public image. Exercising administrative power according to law is both the foundation of government crisis management and the guarantee for its legitimacy. How the government carries out crisis management and whether it succeeds in it directly affect its political legitimacy and public image. Crisis management pushes the government to

1 2

Fink (1987), 3. Coser (1989).

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carry out reforms and create institutional innovations through active efforts and to continuously polish its public image.3

4.1.1.2

Government in a Crisis

After the 9/11 attacks, American people were less trustful of the government, but the government did an excellent job in post-crisis relief, and its anti-terrorist actions later were largely supported by the public. News Weekly conducted a poll during October 11–12, 2001 and found that President George W. Bush’s anti-terrorist war still had a high support rate. Up to 89% of the people surveyed supported the air strike on Afghanistan, and 76% believed that military operations would last several years. In general, compared with the Watergate scandal in 1974 and the Iran hostage crisis in 1979, the American government performed much better in crisis management this time, and its public image was well maintained. On August 8, 1974, president Richard Nixon resigned because of his alleged attempts to cover up the Watergate break-in. He therefore became the first president forced to resign in American history. President Jimmy Carter did not fare well in dealing with the Iran hostage crisis in 1979, so he lost the subsequent election to Ronald Reagan in 1980. Therefore, a crisis can be a direct threat to social stability and poses a serious challenge to government legitimacy and public image. Government crisis management refers to the government’s management of emergencies, and the purpose is, by improving the government’s capability of predicting a crisis and containing its consequences, to timely and effectively deal with the crisis, restore social stability, and regain public trust in the government. The ability to properly deal with a crisis is always a key criterion in assessing government capability at all levels, and crisis response concerns not only the handling of individual events but also lasting peace and order in a country. If a government cannot effectively prevent and contain a crisis or deal with the problems involved, it may lose the basis for achieving its social development goals and even that for keeping its ruling power in hand.

4.1.1.3

Principles of Government Crisis Response

A crisis may take various forms and cause serious damage. Every type of natural disaster and man-made accident generally goes through a number of stages, and each stage has its own characteristics. Government crisis response should fit the specific entities involved, as well as the specific time and situation. There are never any response measures to fit all conditions. However, in view of the basic characteristics, there are some common principles for governments to handle crises. Based on a relevant literature review and drawing

3

Hu (1999), pp. 1159–1321, Xu and Zhang (1997)

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reference from the actual practices of crisis management in different countries, especially the United States, for the 9/11 attacks, we develop eight basic principles for government crisis response and present cases to support the points.

4.1.1.4

Timeliness

A crisis usually happens unexpectedly and causes shocking consequences with overwhelming forces. It develops and evolves fast, sometimes following no pattern and with no previous experience to refer to. The process and consequences can be highly uncertain and unpredictable due to poor communication and limited information. Given the immense damages and negative impact a crisis may bring, timely response is critical once a crisis takes place, and the government needs to take a series of actions on site in response to an emergency at the earliest time possible to get the situation under control. If timely and targeted emergency response measures are taken early after a crisis, the public can be assured and good social order maintained, thus laying the foundation for successfully handling the crisis in the following stages. The government should seize the right moment, take resolute measures and strive to control the situation within the shortest time. If the government delays its response and is indecisive, it would lose the best opportunity for rescue actions and may get itself into an awkward position where it faces various dangers and difficulties that could have been avoided. After a crisis takes place, timeliness is all the more important for making critical decisions because a delay of minutes or even only seconds may lead to more casualties and property losses. To effectively keep a crisis from aggravating and a disaster from spreading and to minimize the losses, actions must be fast and resolved in the middle stage, and even the entire process, of crisis response, so as not to miss the best opportunities. Upon arriving on site, government personnel should usually take the following measures effectively and immediately: • Organize all manpower on site to save lives and evacuate victims as soon as possible; • Cordon the site off and dismiss all onlookers immediately to ensure the best conditions for rescue work; • Set up a crisis response command center as close to the site as possible; • Ask government emergency response authorities (including armed forces if necessary) for assistance based on the evolution of the situation; • Restore communication channels as soon as possible to ensure access to information; • Report all collected information to higher-level competent authorities as soon as possible, including information about the possible trend, consequences, and assistance that may be needed; report to the highest directly if necessary. To address a crisis in a timely manner, we should first ensure that the people participating in crisis response and the rescue forces, including the army and the police, are capable of fast response and that when receiving a call or order from the

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superior, relevant personnel and taskforces can take action immediately, arrive at the site in time, and start work immediately. For this, most countries and regions in the world have set up emergency response taskforces and fast response forces, and the Code of Work for 110 Services requires that all police officers at 110 service centers arrive at the site of a reported incident within a designated period of time (five minutes for sites in downtown areas and 10 min in more remote locations).

4.1.1.5

Efficiency

A crisis usually affects a large part of society, so we have to concentrate our resources and use a small but best part of our forces on hand to achieve the goal of effective and efficient rescue and relief. We should not send too many people to the site for rescue work for fear of unnecessary difficulties in coordination. When dealing with a crisis, the government should ensure that the on-site team is small but very strong and that the temporary command center has a lean structure and high efficiency. Especially in handling an emergency that involves violence, only a small number of highly capable people should be engaged in an assault or surprise attack.4 All countries value the principle of leanness and high efficiency when dealing with a crisis, and many of them have formed dedicated operation forces to deal with crises such as terrorist activities. These forces are usually small in scale but well trained and highly capable, equipped with advanced communication devices and sophisticated weapons, and featuring a high level of professionalism and efficiency. When dealing with a crisis, these forces never rely on how many people there are but on the ability of every single member to fight and win independently. For instance, the Office of the Coordinator for Counterterrorism (S/CT), a cross-departmental super organization in the United States, formed a professional fast response detachment to specifically deal with terrorism-related emergencies. Headed by S/CT officers, members of the detachment are experts from agencies such as the Department of Defense, CIA and FBI. At the request of a foreign government or an American ambassador to a foreign country, the fast response detachment can get on a plane with special equipment provided by the Department of Defense and arrive at any place in the world within hours.

4.1.1.6

Coordination

The personnel participating in crisis response come from transportation, communication, fire control, information, rescue, food, public facility management, first aid, logistics, medical services, and many other parts of the government-led system, as well as the army, armed police and volunteer organizations. Therefore, coordination is extremely important. As an emergency is unavoidable and has to be dealt with promptly, different government departments should work in a coordinated way with 4

Gao (1992), p. 6.

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clearly specified duties after an emergency happens, and all resources should be pooled and put into effective use to minimize the losses. In many countries, it is usually the public security authority that is responsible for the organization and coordination on site in case of emergencies. In the US, it is stipulated by law that the FBI is the lead agency responsible for the organization and coordination on site in case of an emergency, while the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is responsible for the coordination in the later stages of crisis response. If a crisis is especially dangerous, of a large scale, closely related to national interests and involves foreign countries, the head of state may have to be personally in charge of the organization and coordination to make unified arrangements and mobilize all the necessary resources by making use of his/her high authority and to make various decisions in a timely manner. To deal with a crisis, on site organization and coordination by government personnel usually cover the following tasks5 : • Coordinate between the different forces participating in emergency response and relevant supporting tasks, including firefighting, communication, rescue and relief, traffic management and supply management teams; • Pass on orders from the higher level about launching an assault or surprise attack; • Collect information about why the emergency happens, its nature and developing trend, and report such information to the higher level; • Control or arrest the perpetrator or terrorist; • Take charge of the staffing of the rescue and relief teams, and make sure there are professionals familiar with the local terrains, specialized in relevant technologies, or well-trained for human resources management; • Set up an information center to release information in a timely manner, properly relate to the media and communicate with the public; • Properly handle post-crisis matters; • Assign people to write reports on emergency response efforts for superiors. Crisis currently usually has international influences, so the governments of many countries are seeking and strengthening international cooperation. To effectively deal with emergencies such as terrorist activities, a series of international conferences have been held, a number of bilateral and multilateral agreements have been reached, and many anti-terrorist international conventions have been enacted. For example, after the 9/11 attacks, the 4385th meeting of the United Nations Security Council held on September 28 that year adopted Resolution 1373 (2001), which decided to form a counterterrorism committee and called on all member states to work together to prevent and stop terrorist activities by intensifying cooperation and fully carrying out international conventions against terrorism.

5

Gao (1992), p. 10.

4.1 Government Performance During Crisis

4.1.1.7

77

Safety

The top priority in handling a crisis and carrying out rescue and relief activities is to save lives and ensure basic living conditions. Safety of the victims is the top priority. In the meantime, utmost efforts should be made to protect the lives of people participating in rescue work, including soldiers and police officers, and to protect the properties of the nation and the people on that basis.

4.1.1.8

Legitimacy

Exercising the right of crisis management according to law is the basic requirement for a modern democratic constitutional government. A crisis is a nonprogrammed matter that involves nonprogrammed decision-making, so the legitimacy of the government to exercise its power when handling a crisis is of great importance. The government has many special powers in a crisis or an emergency, but it cannot and should not misuse or abuse such power, which is intended for more effective and efficient crisis management. Moreover, greater prudence is required when handling a crisis that involves foreign parties or one that involves political, economic, religious and diplomatic issues because the different countries involved have different laws. Therefore, all countries have put in place laws regarding the emergency state to uphold the rule of law in such situations. Canada and Turkey, for example, have a unified emergency state law that applies to all public emergencies. Additionally, all countries demand their emergency response personnel not to take hasty actions and to report to higher-level authorities for permission before taking forced actions such as an assault or surprise attack. Reports may sometimes reach the top level of the government.

4.1.1.9

Scientific Operation

The principle of scientific operation in government crisis response mainly applies to disasters caused by industrial technologies and crises resulting from natural disasters. The former mainly involves hazardous materials, radioactivity accidents, dam failures, shortages of resources and fires of multiple buildings, while the latter mainly involves droughts, tsunamis, forest fires, landslides, debris flows, avalanches, snowstorms, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and volcanic eruptions. When dealing with a crisis such as these, we should take sound and technically viable steps, ask for the opinions of experts in specific fields, and avoid any imprudent action. The nuclear leak at Chernobyl of the former Soviet Union in 1986 told us about the critical importance of reasonable instead of rash countermeasures when dealing with a crisis such as nuclear leakage and that any blind and poorly justified action should be avoided.

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Adherence to Procedures

In crisis management, there must be procedures set on the basis of certain evaluation criteria and order of priority so that site control and situation handling efforts can take place accordingly. If there are clear legal provisions, such provisions shall be the highest principle to follow. In the case of a social crisis, the top goal is to quickly and effectively restore normal order. Therefore, rescue personnel who arrive at the site first should make a brief evaluation and carry out rescue and relief work on that basis. Apart from saving lives and ensuring the basic living conditions on the site, the remaining work should be prioritized according to the actual capacity of the rescue forces and the economic resources available.

4.1.1.11

Appropriateness

It is usually inevitable that crisis response actions cause more or less damage to social stability and people’s lives and properties, so we must exercise crisis management powers prudently and appropriately in the hope of minimizing harm and losses. Whether we are dealing with a crisis caused by a natural disaster or a social crisis, we must always effectively identify the main hazards and take effective measures accordingly. When dealing with a mass emergency, we must uphold the principle of obtaining support from the majority and isolating the minority and precisely implement well-targeted policies carefully selected based on specific situations. In particular, when dealing with a violent emergency, the use of arms must be strictly controlled within a proper scope. It should be no more than what is absolutely necessary to take the opponents under control and render them incapable of any resistance.

4.1.2 National Emergency Management Institution The crises faced by governments can be diverse and may involve a wide range of factors. They are not simply political crises related to government legitimacy and staffing, as many people may believe them to be. They also differ from social crises in the most extensive sense. Social crises can be long-lasting and covert structural crises, or they can also be temporary, simple and overt. The crises to be dealt with by the government tend to be closely related to the former kind, but studies of government crisis management tend to focus more on emergencies that may endanger the security, order, freedom and other fundamental values of society where responses have to be made with very limited time, supplies, information and other resources. In the face of crises that come one after another, the most important is that we set up a dedicated coordination institution that is authoritative and efficient to play a central role in dealing with various kinds of crises, be them natural disasters or manmade accidents. Examples include the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

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of the United States, which is responsible for handling all emergencies, including natural disasters, social riots and wars. It is fair to say that in a well-developed crisis management system, the government should have a dedicated and central decisionmaking institution to take the lead in relevant coordination work, send out warnings, and make fast responses. The government should establish and improve its overall crisis management system and work to enhance its efficiency.

4.1.2.1

Early Warning and Fast Response Mechanisms

In China, emergency-related legislation and the corresponding management system are both quite scattered and fragmented, and there are no central and dedicated emergency response institutions. A consequence of this is that no one sees the whole picture about what kinds of crises may happen in a year or over a longer time period, and there is thus no detailed analysis of the situation to allow early warning to be given or any action to be taken to deal with issues that may evolve into crises. As a result, it is hardly possible to prevent a crisis before it occurs. Additionally, there is no organization in place to take the responsibility of coordination, so before a crisis takes place, it is hard for the government to give accurate warnings and monitor the evolution of the situation on the whole; after a crisis hits, response is very likely to be late and unable to keep the situation under control.6 1.

2.

6

Early warning and monitoring mechanisms As China does not have a unified national emergency management institution, it is impossible to include crisis prevention in long-term government strategies, plans or routine management arrangements. The government does not take crisis prevention as crucial for national security and interest, so it is unlikely to recognize the various symptoms before a crisis truly hits. As a result, it usually hit unprepared and fall into a disadvantaged position naturally once a crisis does break out, reacting rather than responding to it only as it is forced to by the evolvement of the situation. If we have a dedicated organization to give warnings, monitor the situation and respond fast when necessary, we will be able to give diagnosis and monitor changes in social stability properly and in real time, predict the trend of social stability, issue warnings at critical points, decide on what countermeasures to take, and form a complete command system to identify the overall situation of national stability. Then, we will be able to prevent a wide range of crises or incidents through early warning and fast response mechanisms. Such crises and incidents include major crises that may happen to China due to the change of important national relations, the social unrest caused by stock market crashes, and serious natural disasters (floods, earthquakes, etc.) in major cities. Fast response mechanism Early warning and monitoring can only be effective to a certain extent since they address only the social aspects where symptoms are already detected,

For analysis of crisis alert mechanism and fast response mechanism, refer to Mo (2001).

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whereas the early symptoms of certain crises can be hard and even impossible to recognize and monitor. Therefore, the early warning and monitoring mechanism alone cannot ensure lasting peace and stability in society. Once a crisis breaks out, time is all that matters, and the top priority of government crisis management and relevant decision-making is to take resolute measures and mobilize all necessary resources to take things under control promptly and restore social order as soon as possible. That is what crisis management and fast response mechanisms aim at. However, the current emergency fast response mechanism in China is quite inadequate to achieve this mainly because the responsibility for crisis management is scattered among various sectors of the government separate from one another. Therefore, the government is usually not fast enough to take actions when a crisis is simple and involves only one aspect of the system, be it social security, traffic, or medical care. Then, it becomes quite inefficient as the crisis proceeds to involve more aspects and require coordinated use of resources. In addition, China has not yet put in place fully functioning coordination mechanisms for dealing with different types of crises (including hierarchical and nonhierarchical coordination mechanisms). Therefore, the duties of governments at different levels and of different sectors for crisis handling are not specified from a legal point of view, and unwise human intervention is everywhere. Once a major crisis breaks out and resources from various sectors need to be mobilized or multiple crises break out at the same time, the government may not be able to coordinate well, and the efficiency of crisis response can be very low.7

4.1.2.2

Government Crisis Management System and How It Works

As a crisis can be unexpected and hazardous either realistically or potentially, the government should take crisis management as an important part of its everyday governance operation rather than a temporary task. To achieve this, the government should establish crisis early warning and fast response mechanisms and run them effectively and efficiently within the framework of a unified and efficient crisis management system that features clearly defined functions, duties and powers, a sound organizational structure, and flexible operation. In this way, the duties of each authority are clarified in legal terms, and coordination will likely be effective and efficient when a crisis does hit. Based on the role each government authority plays in crisis management and whether they participate in the crisis management process directly or indirectly, we can divide the crisis management system into five subsystems responsible for command and decision-making, functional organization, information and advice, coordination, and support.8 We will introduce four of these five hereunder and leave 7

Regarding the coordinating mechanism in China’s crisis management system, please refer to part 4—“coordinating mechanism in crisis management”. 8 Hu (1999), pp.1239–1249.

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the one for coordination to be elaborated later in a separate section given its special importance for a modern crisis management system in China. 1.

2.

3.

4.

9

Command and decision-making The command and decision-making subsystem is in the central position in crisis management and reflects the capability of the top-level political elites to make strategic decisions and respond to crises. It can be a permanent organization or a temporary one. Yehezkel Dror, a famous political scientist, wrote in Policymaking under Adversity that crisis response (crisis decision-making) is of much importance in some countries and of critical potential importance to all. The more prevalent and fatal a crisis is, the more important it will be to make wise crisis decisions. Major decisions, with largely irreversible influences, need to be made during crises.9 The duties of the command and decision-making subsystem are to ensure national security, set the goals and principles for crisis prevention and control, and choose the actions and plans for crisis resistance.10 As a result, this subsystem not only formulates government anti-crisis strategies but also functions as the central decision-making body and commander in crisis management. Functional organization The functional organization subsystem of the crisis management system involves the main functional departments or organizations that are in charge of national security affairs and directly responsible for crisis prevention, detection and control. Based on the guidelines and policies made by the command and decision-making body, the functional organization subsystem is to perform crisis management tasks in specific aspects.11 As the functional departments in crisis management, authorities in this subsystem carry many responsibilities for everyday crisis prevention and emergency fast response, and they are the backbone of the crisis management system and the part of the system that takes concrete actions. Support The support subsystem of the crisis management system consists of functional departments in the government that have special expertise and scopes of business, specific resources, equipment and capabilities; are in charge of special issues; and undertake certain special tasks in emergency response.12 Offering support to crisis management, this subsystem does not have a direct impact on crisis management but works indirectly to assist direct participants by providing necessary services in the response process. Information and advice To take action at the right moment in the process of crisis management and make fast responses, the command and decision-making center should be

Beijing Pacific Strategy Institute (2001), p. 2. Hu (1999), p. 1240. 11 Hu (1999), p. 1242. 12 Hu (1999), pp. 1248–1249. 10

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provided with reliable disaster-related information in a timely manner, and the information and advice subsystem, public or private, is an important source of such information in addition to the functional organization subsystem and the support authorities. Only in this way will there be sound interactions among different parties involved in the decision-making process, and only in this way will crisis management experts fully play their roles to support decisionmakers by shouldering clearly defined responsibilities and working in good coordination. This information and advice subsystem for crisis management may consist of the following three organizations: administrative information and advice organizations for decision-making, semiofficial policy research and consulting organizations, and nongovernmental policy research and consulting organizations.13 It is certain that we should give full play to the positive role of “external brains” for command and decision-making during everyday crisis early warning and monitoring, form a database of crisis cases, and foster experts and think tanks specialized in crisis management.

4.1.2.3

Unified Authority for Comprehensive Coordination in Crisis Management

The above are the organizational structures related to crisis management. However, it is far from enough to merely have these structures in place. The key is to find ways to integrate organizational structures at different levels and of different functions in an orderly way to ensure effective and efficient coordination in the face of an emergency to quickly take the situation under control and restore social order. For this purpose, in addition to a comprehensive consultation and decision-making system such as the National Security Council of the United States, there should be a single, permanent, authoritative and independent authority one level up in the hierarchy for comprehensive coordination. Such an authority should be above all ministries and directly under the administrative head of the country, report to this administrative head, provide policy advice to him, and be responsible for him. To make this overall coordination authority the dedicated and central institution for crisis management and put it in a central leading position in crisis response is good for ensuring effective and efficient coordination in the operation of various functional departments. In this way, we can avoid situations such as missing the right opportunity and undermining rescue and relief effectiveness owing to buck-passing among them.

13

Hu (1999), pp. 1245–1247.

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4.1.3 Coordination Mechanism in Crisis Management Based on our preliminary observation and study on relevant real situations, the biggest problem of the current crisis response system in China lies in the coordination mechanism. This includes coordination between different authorities and between different levels of the same department. There are two types of decision-making coordination mechanisms in the government crisis response system: hierarchical and nonhierarchical. The former refers to coordination between different levels of the government and is mainly based on orders coming from a higher level to a lower level in a hierarchical system. The latter involves mainly information transmission within a government body, from the government to the general public and between different government departments at the same level. This is a mechanism centered on information communication, in which the various departments and parties involved are not in a hierarchical system but on equal footing. The pressing task in China is to set up a sound crisis management system, and the first step is to establish sound coordination mechanisms, both hierarchical and nonhierarchical. Only by doing so can we minimize the damages inflicted by a crisis on public interests, fundamentally reform and improve the current public governance structure in China, and realize good governance at an early date.

4.1.3.1

Non-hierarchical Coordination Mechanism

In China today, when a crisis breaks out, different government departments or the government and various other entities related to crisis management usually work independently without an overall coordination mechanism for decision-making, and decisions are usually made by the heads of different departments without good coordination. When we discussed the principle of coordination in crisis response earlier, we gave such an example: Railway police in Lanzhou stopped an ambulance, and an old woman died from blood loss. Similar situations happened in other places too. In July 2001, a Guangzhou resident called 110 for help, but the problem remained unsolved after the person who received the call on duty forwarded the message to the relevant department 14 times.14 It is not uncommon for different departments to pass the buck back and forth and shirk responsibility when receiving cases transferred from the 110 service platform. In the Yuzhou gunshot case of 2000, three people died, and two were injured. The local police dragged their feet after receiving the call for help, so it missed the opportunity to get things under control and was held accountable for the consequences.15 The problem of nonhierarchical coordination is more notable in urban crises. The whole Chinese society has come to a period of frequent crises, and major cities 14 15

New Express, July 11, 2001. Wang and Guan (2000)

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across the country also see crises at a higher frequency. However, an urban emergency management system is currently absent. Take traffic accident for example. China’s urban first aid system is not yet well developed; some people injured in traffic accidents cannot be saved and treated in time, and the injuries may even worsen and accelerate death due to improper emergency treatment and transfer. This has aggravated the damages of traffic accidents. Many cities in China are making efforts for interconnected urban emergency services in which the government coordinates and commands relevant departments to provide the public with first aid and emergency services. More specifically, the city uses one helpline for all emergencies, sets up a joint action center, and incorporates a series of government departments, including public security, firefighting, traffic police, first aid, flood control, earthquake relief, public utilities and civil defense, in a unified urban emergency command system to which the public can report emergencies and ask for help.

4.1.3.2

Hierarchical Coordination Mechanism

A hierarchical coordination mechanism mainly refers to the coordinated operation of governments at different levels in crisis response to ensure that the crisis situation is precisely reported and that policies made by higher-level governments are earnestly implemented. A crisis usually breaks out in local areas, so one of the critical things for successfully handling it is smooth information flow among governments at all levels so that they can work in good coordination to resolve problems. We should not only focus on the decision made by the government but should, more importantly, study the coordination between the central government and its local counterparts on certain issues. As pointed out in O’Neil’s Observation, all polities are local.16 Most crises and emergency handling in China today are local. According to domestic practice, the top principle on crisis response is that the administrative area where a crisis takes place should bear responsibility. When handling an emergency, the government of the emergency initiator’s registered residence should take full responsibility or deal with the consequences. Although central or provincial governments should provide guidance on the macrolevel, whether the policies can be implemented properly and efficiently still relies on the local government. The general public, as the policy recipient, would judge the government’s role and efficiency based on the effects of local governments’ policy implementation. Some participation restraints and incentives have to be created for local governments’ choice of actions. To be more specific, there must be an effective behavior identification mechanism so that the higher-level government can accurately identify what action of governance the lower-level government has taken, thus reducing government deception and raising the cost of falsification. More importantly, the punitive cost for government deception should be largely increased to lower the expected benefits of this kind of action. In the meantime, lowering the cost for sound 16

Waugh (2000)

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governance is also a critical step to take, but lowering it can be a long and systematic process and up to the coordinated development of the social governance structure and political and economic system. We must bear in mind that the maximal benefits that the public expects can only be realized through the agent’s actions, so it is necessary to respect local rights and interests and delegate power scientifically and reasonably.

4.2 Media’s Role in a Crisis In the modern information society, the mass media plays a significant role in shaping public values and ideas, strengthening public awareness, and reflecting and guiding public opinions. It is not exaggerating to say that how effective the media conveys information has direct bearings on the management capability and performance of a government and the political stability and economic development of a society. Therefore, the operation model and influence of the media in society has been a hot topic at home and abroad. China is undergoing drastic social changes. Frequent crises of various types in recent years have directly affected social stability and economic development and posed a major challenge to the government. When dealing with a crisis, the media should stay in good coordination with the crisis management authority to form benign interactions for holding and controlling information, but in actual crisis management in China, the media’s operation process and social function are usually ignored or distorted.

4.2.1 Operation Logic and Social Function of The Media With growing diversity in media communication in the modern age, especially with the Internet rising as a new media, the structure and function of the media have changed dramatically, featuring a high coverage rate, large amount of information, wide scope of influence and strong impact. The study of the operation logic and social function of mass media has gone through a long process. Harold Lasswell, one of the four forerunners of communication science, put forth the five elements of media communication based on analysis and research, that is, the famous 5 W: who, says what, in which channel, to whom and with what effect. On that basis, Lasswell also put forth the three social functions of mass communication: environmental monitoring, coordinating the relation among different social circles to adapt to environmental changes, and the inheritance of social culture. Charles Wright added the fourth function—entertainment.17 As a filter of information, each media organization decides what to report and how to report it based on its own editorial stance and reporting guidelines and through the 17

For more details, refer to Li (1998), pp. 137–141.

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information selection and processing mechanism. In the process of information diffusion, news events are magnified and produce a potential social effect, and information may be distorted and misinterpreted. According to the “agenda setting” theory and “spiral of silence” theory, both on the effect of mass communication, what the public pays attention to and thinks about is largely determined by what the media report and the public allocate their attention to different topics according to the priority given by the mass media. Through premeditated, selective arrangements or designs, the media can capture public attention, shape public opinions, and achieve the expected effects of communication. Meanwhile, the effect of social integration in the formation of public opinion results in pressure and social control, causing individual members of society to reduce social engagement and rational thinking to be accepted in some way by organizations or society.18 Therefore, even as it boosts efficiency and convenience, modern mass communication has nonetheless contributed to no small degree to the numbing of the public and the worsening of “communication deficit disorder” among its increasingly diverse members. This results in a low level of public engagement in public activities and inadequate support for public policies and public institutions and eventually gives rise to the so-called legitimacy crisis. This phenomenon is becoming more conspicuous in modern information society. In addition to serving political purposes, modern media also seek maximal interests for themselves. Media today operate in a more market-based way, and media operators are more profit-oriented and even border disorderly competition and the dissemination of vulgar contents. In particular, the fourth media represented by the Internet has broken the limitation of traditional mass media, which allow audiences only to passively receive information. It offers a new communication model that is audience-driven and interactive and allows audiences to be active participants in the communication system. To amplify its voice, the media tend to use all information carriers, the most expressive communication approaches and the most appealing content to continuously attract more attention from the public. In terms of the relation between the government and the media, in all countries in the world, the mass media usually exists as part of the public sector, and the power to disseminate information is part of the public power. Strongly public in nature, the media shoulders the duty of guiding public opinions, contributing to social stability, and serving as an indicator of social mental status. As a part of the policy-making and implementation process and an intermediary between the government and society, the media may become a communication tool used by the government, political parties and other interest groups. However, the media, as the main actor in reporting social incidents, possesses controlling power over what to report, how to report, and what influence to produce. Therefore, how to relate to the media and how to make better use of the media for social integration is a topic that requires more attention. In handling social emergencies, the crisis manager especially has to communicate, 18

Regarding the descriptions of “agenda setting” theory and “spiral of silence” theory, please refer to the elaborations by Everett et al. (2000). For the application of this theory, please refer to the reports on the collision between Chinese military aircraft and US reconnaissance plane, explosion at Fanglin elementary school in Jiangxi and explosion in Shijiangzhuang by mainstream western media in 2001.

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coordinate and cooperate with the media and form benign interactions with it, as media reports on such events differ from ordinary media coverage and may generate immense social impact.

4.2.2 Media Policy in Crisis Management The media, as public communication organizations, bears the obligation to help maintain social order. Its main function is to present the concerns of the general public from the perspective of social management, covering areas such as political hotspots, economic conditions, market trends, technology and education, environment, public security, public health, cultural events and military security. China, in particular, is currently in a critical period of economic gearshift and social transformation where crises and accidents can take place frequently, and reports on incidents concerning political security, economic development and social stability tend to be common in news media. If disorder and chaos last in the minds of the public, there will be a lack of a central opinion to hold on to, and confrontation and conflicts among members of society will be inevitable. Therefore, the crisis management authority must take effective measures to communicate with and mobilize the public to deal with the potential contagion of a crisis and get the public to recognize and support its emergency response efforts. Social contagion theory clearly explains the potential contagious effect in society caused by reports on a crisis. “The more attention a crisis, target or behavior draws from the public, the more contagious it will be and the more likely will the public join in relevant efforts. The more concentrated people are in a place or organization, the more contagious will things be in such organizations for engagement in crisis response”.19 In the three stages of crisis management, namely, prior management (in the latent period of a crisis), crisis process management (in the outbreak period of a crisis), and post-crisis management (in the recovery and reconstruction period after a crisis), the crisis management authority should improve its crisis communication system and proactively seek cooperation with the media to build a smooth communication channel.

4.2.2.1

Latent Period

In the latent period before a crisis breaks out across the board, problems that cause public dissatisfaction, conflict and confrontation are already in the making and may make themselves felt through various signs such as large-scale mass petition, protest and demonstration, as well as small-scale violent actions. To address these issues, an early warning and detection system for crisis management is needed for preliminary

19

Hu (1999), p. 1198.

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responses in multiple aspects on the basis of the information collected. In this process, media reports are an important source of information for the public to understand the situation. Meanwhile, routine media communication of and informal education for public crisis awareness can help establish public faith and form unified public opinions and consensus concerning crises in society, which is of great importance for the prevention and fast settlement of crises. Enhanced crisis awareness in the whole society can help prevent crises or help keep track of the situation on the whole, which is not only good for obtaining public support afterwards, but can also strengthen the government’s policy assessment and prediction system, improve its responses, build shared social values, muster forces to restore social order, and enhance the society’s stress resistance.

4.2.2.2

Outbreak Period

The outbreak of a crisis and the consequent property losses, human casualties and damage to public confidence seriously disrupt normal social order and cause changes in the objectives of social reforms and public policies. Moreover, the outbreak and evolution of a crisis can be abrupt and shocking, instantly drawing high attention from the media, but inappropriate media reports on a crisis would lead to a strong negative impact on society. Therefore, it is necessary to communicate with and guide the media in suitable and well-targeted ways, give full play to its function in disseminating information and gathering public support, and quickly acquire information through multiple channels and analyze and integrate it. The purpose is to explain to the public the intention of the government’s crisis management actions, its guiding principles and the necessity, explain government policies, and obtain public support for its efforts. The principle for dealing with the media in crisis management is to proactively seek cooperation for timely and effective information gathering and dissemination to release a reasonable amount of information, avoid potential crises or overemphasis on uncertainty and unavoidability in crisis management, and strengthen communication between the crisis management authority and the public. Based on research findings and practical experience, the principles for dealing with the media in crisis response should meet the following criteria20 : The first is timeliness. Actions should be taken fast to secure an advantageous position for guiding public opinions and serving as the source of the latest information. To contain a crisis, maintain social order and avoid panic among the general public, the crisis management authority must first and foremost respond quickly, 20

The opinions here about media policy in crisis management are attributed to the remarks by experts, scholars and crisis management workers at the “emergency management in the period of social reform” symposium held by the School of Public Administration of Tsinghua University and Chinese Public Administration Society on November 26, 2001. Additionally, please refer to Hu (1999), pp. 1264–1269.

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select appropriate sources and transmission channels for relevant information in a well-targeted manner, take effective measures to ensure appropriate inclination of news reports, and prevent eye-catching reports that would make things worse. It should also prevent the media from releasing incorrect or incomplete information, which would mislead the public or aggravate public panic, making it harder to settle the crisis. It is especially important to act early and secure an advantageous position to take control over public opinions when dealing with crises related to international affairs. Examples include the US-led NATO’s bombing of the Chinese embassy in the former Yugoslavia, the crash between Chinese and American military aircraft, the China-Japan agricultural trade friction, and China’s crackdown on East Turkistan terrorist forces, all of which are highly politically sensitive. The second criterion is consistency, which is important for reliability and authority. The crisis management authority must stick to its role as a guide for the release of crisis information and give play to the media’s role in transmitting information and guiding public opinions to keep the public calm and guide them to do the right things in response to the crisis. While building a smooth main channel for information communication, efforts should also be made to prevent the spread of rumours and hearsays and avoid any damage they may cause. In emergencies, social order is disrupted, the public is mentally weak, and people’s conjectures of the situation reduce their trust in and support of government policies and actions. To quickly obtain public support and restore the government’s credibility, the crisis management authority must keep their words and actions consistent, reveal the destructive effect of rumours and the rumour spreader’s ill intention by presenting facts and truth, and prove the truthfulness of the information that the authority itself releases with concrete actions. Third, there must be a clearly designated spokesperson and clear information sources. Crises usually evolve fast and drastic, and it is impossible for the crisis management authority to keep control of all information in that process. Therefore, the authority has to designate a spokesperson to continuously inform the public and the media of the real situation and call for public support for crisis management actions. Timothy Coombs, a famous American expert on crisis management, expounded the crisis spokesperson’s role in dealing with the media and the knowledge and skills he/she should have. As interaction with the media in crisis management has much to do with information transmission, the crisis management authority must also give the correct information to the various parties within its own system in a timely manner in addition to doing the same for the media and public to keep the information consistent and accurate. It should also decide whether to designate more than one spokesperson or assistant spokesperson according to the evolution of the situation, ensuring that information updates would come in time with adequate accuracy. Fourth, the spokesperson must be in direct contact with the top decision makers and be included in the decision-making process. In an emergency, reporters usually stay suspicious about the information they obtain and try to verify it with authoritative sources. However, this cannot be done

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in a normal way; they would turn to unreliable sources or even fabricate false news with available information. Therefore, a crisis spokesperson, as a representative of authoritative views and opinions about the crisis, plays an important role in crisis management and must be highly professional, convincing and authoritative. A crisis spokesperson must be a key member of the crisis management team, have a position in the whole process of crisis management, be as familiar with every aspect of the crisis as possible, have the means to reach top decision makers at any time, keep track of how well is the situation contained and controlled, understand the top decision makers’ attitude toward the transmission of various information, and know exactly which information has to be made public and which should be kept confidential. Fifth, relationships with “hostile” media organizations must be handled carefully and properly. In the event of a crisis, the crisis management authority usually believes the media to be hostile. After a crisis breaks out, some local governments and law enforcement institutions tend to try to hide what happens or abuse their administrative power to block the media from the truth, which not only delays necessary relief efforts and leaves the public’s request for information unattended to but also creates rumours. Even if they do release some information about the crisis, they still tend to do it in a way that is hostile towards the media, or, in many cases, they will say no more than “no comment”. Whether the crisis management authority gives concrete information or not, a crisis will be reported all the same. Reporters usually have to wait a long time for a press conference and an opportunity to ask questions. Therefore, it is better that the crisis management authority be cooperative with the media, present the truth and give frank and clear comments. That would help solve the crisis. When holding a press conference and releasing information, the crisis spokesperson must skillfully interact with the media. He/she must be quick-minded, listen carefully and effectively, give clear responses, and avoid long pauses and the use of jargon. The spokesperson should especially remain calm under pressure, deal with complicated issues skillfully, raise questions against and correct inaccurate information, and give good reasons if he/she cannot answer certain questions.

4.2.2.3

Recovery and Reconstruction Period

As part of the process of social change and political development, crises can be an external driver for the improvement of public policies and help adjust their orientation and values if the government is rational and full of vitality. Although a crisis exerts much greater negative impacts than a positive influence on society and may even lead to the dissolution of the existing social structure (as in the case of a widespread war), appropriate crisis response and effective communication crisis management performance both have the potential to exert a positive influence on the adjustment and rectification of the social structure. As Lewis Coser put it, as a social safety valve and the actuator for norm adjustment to adapt to the new environment, crisis triggers

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the establishment of new norms, rules and systems, enhances engagement in social life, and makes it possible to adjust social relations to correspond to changed social conditions.21 Therefore, after a crisis is settled, the crisis management authority, while endeavoring to restore social structure, functions and social order as soon as possible, should make effective use of the media to make the whole society reflect on what has happened calmly and rationally, do analysis in multiple aspects and at various levels, determine the root cause, and seek ways to avoid similar crisis from happening again, and improve social policies in the future. Take the flood across the Yangtze River basin in 1998 and the several serious sandstorms in Beijing in 2000 as examples. When the media reported the damage of floods and sandstorms, they invited experts, scholars and ordinary people to give a comprehensive and rational reflection on the disasters and the human behaviors related to them from different angles. This provided the public with information and made them think about the growing disasters carefully, thus raising the environmental awareness of the whole society and bringing about a nationwide environmental campaign of far-reaching significance and great effects.

4.2.3 Establishment of Benign Relationships Crises are a special type of incident, especially when major casualties and property losses are involved, and any careless reporting may hamper social stability. That is why the media in China usually exerts special caution. The “Wanzai incident” mentioned above has nothing special in itself but caught so heightened attention from society mainly because the local government tried to cover it up and the media was thus stimulated to report it from a negative angle. The local government did everything it could to cover the incident up and contain its influence. The media turned suspicious of what the government said about it and set out to determine the truth. such confrontation resulted in a wrestle between the government and the media for right to information in the face of an emergency. According to some scholars, crisis reporting in China has covered a special path since the founding of the People’s Republic of China, and it can be divided into two stages, one before the early 1980s and the other after that. In the first stage, reports focused on how to use every crisis to educate the people, whereas the focus of the second stage lay on what actually happened and the value of information.22 In my opinion, given the limitations of current laws, regulations, political systems and various other factors and conditions in China, the existing media policies for China’s crisis management system have two major problems. First, in China, the media is the mouthpiece of the Party and the government. Media organizations are controlled by politicians and managed by entrepreneurs, and 21 22

Coser (1956), pp. 114, 137. Sun (2001).

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they are public institutions managed as corporations.23 When reporting successful disaster relief efforts, for example, the media takes exactly the same perspective as the Party and the government. However, against the current institutional background, it is impossible for the higher-level government to monitor the performance of the lower-level governments in real time, and the optimal choice for a local government is to behave deceptively. How to ensure that the media can truthfully reflect these problems is a challenge faced by all journalists. To shirk responsibility and evade legal punishment, some local governments of disaster-hit areas would set all kinds of obstacles to fair and truthful media reports on what has happened and keep the public in the dark. Typical examples in recent years include the shipwreck in Yantai, the explosion in Yulin of Shaanxi, and the 7/17 mining accident in Nandan of Guangxi.24 Timely and effective crisis reporting is even criticized by government leaders as against “the discipline of journalism” in some cases. For instance, China Youth Daily was seriously criticized by a leader because it published a report on dike breach near sluice No. 4 in the Jiujiang section of the Yangtze River on August 8, 1998. This was not corrected until Premier Zhu Rongji inspected Jiujiang and said that the public shall be informed of the real situation of the disaster.25 Second, some media agencies are eager to hype up a crisis by making use of loopholes in the supervisory mechanism out of their pursuit for commercial gains. To expand outreach and the scope of influence of the agencies they serve, some media professionals would create hotspots through hypes, publishing long articles on incidents that would exert strong negative impacts on society. For instance, they would spread rumours like that about AIDS patients randomly injecting needles into ordinary people at the end of 2000), or exaggerate the casualties in grave disasters like in the case of the Wanzai explosion, creating very bad social impacts. Since China is now in the middle of a political system reform, we suggest the following measures be taken in the near future: First, transparency should be improved through more information disclosure, and an overall atmosphere for fair and truthful media reporting should be created. At present, corruption is relatively serious, major accidents are frequent, and the market is in poor order. Under such circumstances, the media plays the important function of supervision, and there should be a fair and just mechanism for information disclosure and transparency in place. However, we currently have only such principles but not any concrete measures for this purpose. Therefore, the first thing to do in the reform of governance is to create an overall environment that allows the media to play its part in a crisis in a fair and just manner, ensures a proper level of freedom of the press, enables the public to know the truth, and improves society’s self-recovery

23

Liu (2000). As a matter of fact, the media made great efforts to bring to light the truth about the serious water inrush accident in Nandan and the explosion in Shaanxi’s Yulin, but we must remember that the reason why the truth did not come to light immediately after the accident broke out was because the local government effectively controlled the local media and blocked all reports thereof. 25 Ouyang (2000). 24

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mechanism. If the media delivers false reports, corrections can be made through legal or administrative measures, and as much information as possible shall be made public. Second, the general public should be aware of the crisis through the media and enhance overall stress resistance. To establish a sound crisis management system, the first thing to do is to foster crisis awareness in society so that we are better prepared for crises before anything truly happens. For this, we need to give full play to the media’s function of information transmission and diffusion. Every time a crisis breaks out, we must determine the causes and draw lessons from it to prevent or lower the possibility of a similar disaster or accident to the largest extent. In the meantime, we should enhance society’s overall capability of crisis response and resilience through a range of means, such as advanced modern media technologies, school education, training of civil servants, and scenario-based drills. Third, the coordination mechanism for crisis information management should be improved. Information plays a decisive role in crisis management. It is crucial for us to understand the disaster situation, make judgments, organize rescue and relief efforts, and ensure utmost personal safety. Therefore, a crisis management institution must not only have a sound system for internal communication but also put in place a feasible strategy to guide the media and respond to its inquiries, thus realizing the coordinated use of social resources. Public announcements from crisis response, alarm, warning, and emergency communication authorities must be managed in a coordinated and interconnected way to ensure reasonable release of crisis information both to the upper-level authorities and to the general public. Fourth, it enhances people’s media literacy through education to build their ability to differentiate media information. With the spread of TV and the Internet, people now have better access to information and spend more time obtaining it from the media. As the media generally presents information in a disorderly way, it is suggested that primary and high schools, as well as universities and colleges, should offer courses on media literacy or relevant content should be included in the curricula of related disciplines. This will help train the public, especially young people, to have sharp eyes to make wise judgements on information presented by the media so that they can identify inappropriate information and resist the media’s adverse influence and be wiser when absorbing information of a crisis. Fifth, we create an effective incentive and restriction mechanism for local government policy selection. The local government’s attitude toward the media during crisis management is essentially a matter of policy selection. An effective mechanism of incentives and restriction must be created to motivate the local government to conduct sound governance. To do that, the performance evaluation system for governments at all levels has to be reformed to include indicators of comprehensive social development and reduce simple targets. Efforts should also be made to build democracy and the rule of law at a faster pace, strengthen the role of the media as a supervisor, utilize

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Internet technologies and other means to make government operations truly open, procedure-based and transparent at all levels, increase political participation, and set up a people-centered mindset across the board.

4.3 Crisis Response Network There is no doubt that the government plays the leading role in the early warning and monitoring of and fast response to crises. However, the government alone definitely cannot deal with the crisis in an effective, efficient, coordinated and flexible way. Therefore, while emphasizing fast response, responsibility, transparency and legitimacy for government crisis management, we, in light of public governance theory, should also bring other parties into the picture, combine laws and government legitimacy with the morality of citizens for cooperation, and balance fairness, democracy and efficiency in terms of management procedures. The purpose is to engage as many social forces as possible and mobilize all social resources to jointly deal with crises and form a crisis response network across society.

4.3.1 Government A crisis can be a direct threat to public security, and the government, as the public service provider and public affairs management authority, must bear the responsibility of crisis management, and the large amount of social resources it has also put it in the center of the crisis management profess. In the same vein, the overall coordination body for crisis management should be built with investment from the government, managed and used by the government. To make the right decisions in dire adversity and quickly muster resources and make arrangements to contain the crisis—this is a comprehensive test of the government’s existing management system and management capability. It reflects whether the government’s organizational structure is complete and flexible, whether government employees are fully qualified and capable of management, and whether the administrative system is able to deal with abrupt changes and make institutional innovations and explorations.26 In this sense, the government should work on two things to be capable and effective in crisis management. First, when establishing the system for conventional decision-making, it must draw useful experience from previous crises and the process of unconventional decision-making. When making everyday public decisions, the government must adopt a sound and democratic approach to adjust conventional decisions, tackle the symptoms and root causes at the same time, and reduce the possibility of a crisis at the source. In the meantime, it must establish a crisis management strategy, make effective and targeted crisis management plans 26

Hu (1999), p. 1164.

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as part of the unconventional decision-making process, do reviews to learn from past experiences in a timely manner, foster government employees’ crisis awareness, and clarify the target and direction of crisis management. Through these efforts, the government will be able to stay clear-minded when encountered with a crisis, take emergency precautions and be mentally prepared to accept what has happened and how far things have gone, make fast responses, and effectively contain the situation. In terms of specific organizational forms, the government’s crisis response network encompasses the lateral relationships among different government departments and the vertical relationships between different levels of the government. The former is a matter of nonhierarchical coordination, while the latter is a matter of hierarchical coordination. In previous chapters, we discussed in detail how to build an efficient government crisis response coordination mechanism, with a view to establishing a national government crisis response network featuring vertical coordination and management, lateral communication and exchange, sharing of information and social resources, efficient commanding and coordination, and a complete organizational structure within the government. In a broader sense, the government crisis response network should also include the connection and communication between the government and nongovernmental parties, including various social groups. For example, efforts should be made to foster public awareness of crises, equip the general public with basic skills for crisis response, communicate with the public and cooperate with communities after a crisis breaks out, and set standards for crisis prevention, information transmission and relief efforts through consultation. The government should also cooperate with other countries and international organizations to seek their help when necessary and work with academics to promote research and development of the discipline of crisis management.

4.3.2 Non-governmental organizations As part of the self-organized sector of society, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) contribute to social development in many ways. For example, it pushes for fairer policies, offers help to disadvantaged groups and those in need, helps safeguard public interests, and supervises the implementation of public policies. In addition, they pool resources from across civil society to push for and support social reforms and organize public-interest activities, promote public participation, enhance public awareness, and shape a culture centered on citizenship. They boost social integration and meet the higher-level demands of humankind. Therefore, NGOs today, while securing support in various forms from the government and actively attracting the government to participate in its projects, often take part in government-led activities, play their roles in the making of public policies, provide the government with policyrelated public services, and supervise and evaluate government actions. Moreover, modern NGOs usually ensure that they can play their roles and functions with a variety of organizational structures and measures. Moreover, as NGOs tend to have a strong sense of social responsibility, they usually participate in social affairs and

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public policy-making with carefully designed and concrete tactics and approaches to highlight their social influence. The main tactics and approaches they usually adopt include organizing public-interest campaigns, calling for public participation, advocating the discussion of social topics, and carrying out publicity and education. They engage in public policy making mainly through policy advocacy, lobbying, public opinion shaping, self-help or mutual help, election campaigns, and tactical alliances. In sum, NGOs tend to actively seek favorable conditions for their development in terms of the policy environment and resources. On the basis of improved selfdiscipline and supervision mechanisms, they strive to create mechanisms for communication, interaction and coordination with the government and push for reforms of public policies. Therefore, the government may also transfer some of its functions to NGOs in the process of government function transformation.

4.3.2.1

NGO’s Role in Crisis Management

The government has some inherent limitations in crisis management, including resource endowment, staffing, and organizational systems, so it is advisable to engage NGOs in crisis management, as they are closely connected with the public and have a strong inclination toward public welfare, both in postcrisis relief efforts and in monitoring and early warning before any crisis hits. In March 1994, approved by the Chinese government, Friends of Nature became the first environmental NGO in China, committed to “conducting public environmental education, advocating green civilization, fostering and spreading the green culture with Chinese characteristics, and promoting environmental protection in China”. Through various themed activities, publications and cooperation with the mass media, Friends of Nature conducts environmental education and fosters awareness of green development in society, especially among youths. It has raised the environmental awareness of the whole nation, made environmental protection a shared responsibility for all, and formed a new culture and lifestyle in society that advocates the harmonious coexistence of man and nature. Its efforts effectively reduce crises related to natural disasters in the long term. Some scholars even believe that civil society organizations, especially NGOs, are the answer to various social crises in China. According to them, if a social revolution is impossible, anti-crisis efforts alone may not be effective and may even lead to a new concentration of power, and reforms of the political system alone may not solve the problems either unless such reforms can open up space for civil society organizations to launch social movements and campaigns. That is, delivering on the political commitment for a “small government and large society” and establishing the corresponding legal framework is the way out.27 As the advocates and driving force of social movements, civil society organizations, especially NGOs, can help improve the social system through social movements and serve as an effective agency

27

Wu (2002).

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for social control, playing the role of a buffer between the state and society and between the state and individuals to ensure stability and development during the social transformation process.

4.3.2.2

Governmental Versus Nongovernmental Organizations in Emergency Management

Governmental and nongovernmental organizations are vastly different in nature. The former features a high level of authority as representatives of public power, while the latter, nongovernmental and nonprofit, is about devotion and voluntary contribution to social development. Therefore, they play different roles in crisis management in terms of their goals, resource mobilization, decision-making process, and scope of responsibility. Oxfam Hong Kong, a world-renowned independent development and relief organization, elaborated on the differences between governmental and nongovernmental organizations in crisis management based on its own disaster management strategies and experience.28 Based on Oxfam Hong Kong’s descriptions, we hereby list out the differences in the following aspects: the goals they pursue in emergency management, whether they are neutral during emergency response, where they act from, how they make administrative decisions, how they mobilize resources, and what approach they adopt for emergency response (Table 4.1). The above table shows that in the process of disaster emergency management, governmental and nongovernmental organizations have resources, organizational structures and social outreach and therefore show different features in crisis management in terms of the goals, locations, time, approaches, contents and effects of their efforts. As two different types of organizations with respective features, the government and NGOs should cooperate, communicate and coordinate with each other, both in postcrisis management and precrisis monitoring and early warning efforts.

4.3.3 For-Profit Organizations Like NGOs, for-profit organizations (FPOs) play an important part in crisis management. We emphasize this mainly for the following reasons: First, many crises break out within the premise of an FPO. Thus, it is natural that the FPO involved in such an emergency is the first one to respond to the crisis. It should organize disaster rescue immediately while reporting what has happened to relevant authorities. Second, after a major crisis, the crisis management capabilities and stress resistance of NPOs in the disaster-hit area, as stakeholders are directly involved, have a direct bearing on whether life and property losses can be effectively reduced. At

28

Yan (2001).

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Table 4.1 Governmental versus non-governmental organizations in crisis management Aspect

Government

NGO

Goal

• Protect the life and property of citizens • Maintain good social order • Protect national security in the case of a conflict

• Ensure the basic rights of victims

Neutrality

The government may be one party of conflict, in which case it will not be neutral

Usually, neutral (regardless of race, nationality, religion, gender, political status, etc.) and provide aid as needed

Location

All areas under government jurisdiction

Usually, a much smaller area depending on the NGO’s network, policy and resources

Decision-making process

Depending on the division of duties and powers between the central and local governments

Pursue balance between accountability and efficiency with an emphasis on the participation of independent volunteers

Resource mobilization

Fund from government budget

Some NGOs have reserve resources but they usually have to raise money

Approach

The government can use the military and police in case of violent or extremely grave crisis

·Dispatching personnel, providing materials, raising fund and offering psychological counseling

the same time, private organizations in other areas, as an important part of available social resources, should also provide capital, materials, equipment, personnel and other forms of assistance to the disaster-hit area through various channels if necessary. In short, NPOs of all kinds should take an active part in crisis response efforts at all stages, including the establishment and operation of government mechanisms for monitoring, early warning and fast response, routine awareness raising campaigns, skill training for the public, and post-disaster recovery and reconstruction.

4.3.3.1

NPO as the First to Respond to a Crisis

Generally, emergencies caused by natural disasters or technical problems in industrial production usually take place within the premise of an NPO. The former mainly includes fires and traffic accidents, while the latter may involve dangerous substances, radiation and dam breaches. In recent years, fires have been more frequent around the country, and most casualties occur in extremely grave fire accidents that occur at small workshops and private companies. Statistics show that from 1998 to 2001, there were 34 fire outbreaks that involved more than ten deaths each, taking a total of 861 lives. In the past four years, 72 extremely severe fire accidents occurred

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in places of public gatherings, such as shopping malls, restaurants, ballrooms and Internet cafés, killing 564 people, injuring 175 and causing direct losses of RMB 320 million. During this period, extremely severe fire outbreaks in private companies or rented workshops accounted for 29.1% of all such accidents, and the numbers of deaths, injured people and direct property losses accounted for 62.4%, 25.5% and 29.8% of the total, respectively. In the meantime, fires in urban and rural households also increased, and places outside of key fire prevention premises witnessed 4–20 more losses of lives and properties than key fire prevention units. What is more worrying is that among the fire hazards discovered during the 2001 campaign for fire prevention at places of public gatherings nationwide, more than 300,000 remain to be properly handled now. As electricity, fire, gas and oil are used more widely and new inflammable materials come out one after another for daily use as well as for construction and decoration, fire hazards have always been on the rise.29 When it is the first witness of a disaster, an FPO must take up responsibility for emergency management. It must take disaster rescue and relief actions immediately and in the meantime report what has happened to relevant government authorities. It must not transfer such responsibility to anyone until government officials arrive at the site to take it over. In reality, however, many FPOs fail to organize disaster effective rescue efforts and to report to government authorities in a timely manner. To make things worse, they usually cover things up and seek to secretly “settle” the problem with victims’ family members. Take the “6·22” extremely severe explosion at the Fanzhi gold mine as an example. To hide the truth about the accident, the owner, who had been running the business without license, hid, moved and burned the dead bodies, destroyed the site by filling the well where the accident happened with more than 200 trucks of garbage and paid the victims’ families to keep their mouths shut. These actions made it extremely difficult to investigate the case and collect evidence.

4.3.3.2

FPOs Obliged to Provide Assistance for Crises Out of Their Premise

A crisis may create an unusual state in society with far-reaching influences. Therefore, in addition to public resources, the government may also have to pool resources from FPOs for crisis management efforts. These resources generally come from certain specific industries, such as commercial banks, insurance companies, communication companies and pharmaceutical companies, which can provide specific technical equipment and resources and perform specific functions to support government crisis management. For instance, insurance companies have to settle insurance claims after a crisis breaks out so that business entities and the people hit by the crisis may return to normal work and life soon.

29

“Small workshops and private companies contribute most of death tolls in the extremely grave fire accidents in recent years,” China Police Daily, June 27, 2002.

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Of course, to maintain constitutional and legal order, the government may sometimes need to temporarily shut down some private organizations during a crisis. For example, airlines may be requested to cancel flights, or certain roads may be closed down. Here is a case in point: After the extremely severe fire at Lanjisu Internet Café on June 16, 2002, Beijing launched emergency fire prevention checks immediately and shut down all Internet cafés for that purpose for a quarter.30 To formulate and effectively implement these crisis management measures, the government needs the active cooperation of profit-oriented organizations.

4.3.3.3

Routine Crisis Response Education in FPOs

Crisis management is a lasting process. It involves not only a range of actions to be taken after a crisis breaks out but also routine crisis awareness-raising activities and crisis response capability-building efforts. FPOs are no exception here. A crisis tends to drive society away from its normal track of development, and conventional work approaches and procedures may be rendered useless. Emergency approaches need be adopted to address the crisis and keep things running. Therefore, FPOs should, first and foremost, take effective preventive measures, identify possible triggers of new crises and signals that may indicate larger looming incidents, and remove these hazards to nip the bud of a crisis. However, many FPOs are not doing a good job in this respect. Similar to the situation in Beijing, many Internet cafés in other places in the country also lack escape routes, and their owners have poor fire safety awareness. After the extremely severe fire at Beijing’s Lanjisu, fire prevention campaigns were launched for Internet cafés around the country, and those that violated laws and regulations were dealt with according to law. By the end of June, more than 15,000 fire inspection teams were dispatched to inspect more than 388,000 entities and ordered and supervised the correction of over 222,000 fire hazards. Altogether, 6287 entertainment places, including KTVs, discos, video theaters and video game centers, were banned according to law, 11,000 public gathering places with serious fire hazards were ordered to stop business and make corrections, and 114,000 entities with fire hazards were ordered to make corrections within a specified period of time. Fire inspection was also conducted at more than 65,000 gas stations nationwide, and 2261 of them were found to have fire hazards according to relevant national standards and were closed down.31 Of course, what we discuss above is mostly mandatory ways to prevent the possibility of crisis outbreaks through external means. What is more important is for FPOs to truly take their own initiative to prevent crises, operate according to the law, observe all safety regulations, strengthen everyday safety management, and remove all disaster hazards, thus reducing the possibility of crisis outbreaks. Moreover, FPOs, 30

Beijing launches fire safety campaign, all Internet cafes stop business for rectification, published at http://news.sina.coin.cn/c/2002-06-16/1533606853.html, June 16, 2002. 31 “Over 14,000 problematic Internet cafes inspected and dealt with,” Nanyang Daily, July 29, 2002.

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especially those running public gathering places, must train their employees in crisis response so that they can be able to prevent crisis, guide people for evacuation and carry out disaster relief activities when a crisis does hit, thus minimizing casualties and losses.

4.3.4 General Public A crisis is not only a challenge to government capability but also a test to the overall capability of society in various aspects. Usually, the public faces direct threats in the case of a crisis or emergency and can be regarded as victims. At times of a crisis, the life and property of the public is the top priority in government crisis management, and the public’s crisis awareness and capability for crisis prevention and response are crucial to the quality of crisis management.

4.3.4.1

Vulnerability and Crisis Education

The extent of threat to people’s lives and property caused by a certain crisis depends primarily on two factors: the potential danger of the crisis itself and the capability of the public or victims to resist a disaster (or their vulnerability). The relationship between the two factors is shown in the following equation: a dangerous accident + a vulnerable point = a disaster potential danger + vulnerability/capability = risk of a disaster In the equation, the dangerous accident and the potential danger may involve accidents caused by natural factors (e.g., earthquake, hail, and rainstorm), those caused by human factors (e.g., war, conflict, and fire) and those caused by a mixture of the two (e.g., environmental degradation, landslide, and flood). Vulnerability/capability is mainly reflected in the following aspects: the material aspect (e.g., economic strength, housing structure, location), the organizational aspect (e.g., communication system, evacuation and relief plan), and attitude (e.g., optimism/pessimism, alertness). The overall level of disaster resistance of the public depends mainly on the disaster source, underlying factors, and actual safety hazards.

4.3.4.2

Crisis Training

A government ant-crisis strategy should, in addition to building shared social values, pooling forces for maintaining social order, improving overall stress resistance and tightening moral restraint, also include more active and effective publicity measures, training programs, school education and public drills to engage the public in crisis

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management as much as possible and enhance society’s overall crisis response capability. This is also an important part of a government anti-crisis strategy.

4.3.4.3

Crisis Mobilization

As mentioned above, we must pay close attention to public education in crisis management. On the one hand, we should carry out scenario-based crisis response training among government employees, which may be done in coordination with the ongoing promotion of master of public administration programs. On the other hand, the general public should also be educated in crisis response so that they have a correct understanding of how different types of disasters take place, how to protect themselves, and how to make themselves more capable of crisis response. For the general public, another key task is to have a security and support plan in place to ensure that there are sufficient resources available when a major crisis takes place across the nation or in a specific region. Singapore has more than 50,000 civil defense volunteers, who will become full-time government employees for civil defense once a disaster or war hits. After receiving basic training in civil defense technology, the volunteers are divided into groups based on their location so that every region of Singapore has a civil defense volunteer team, and all activities are coordinated by an executive coordinator. The security and support plan also put the civil defense executive coordinators into a network to deal with emergencies and conduct self-rescue campaigns. Where there are fire hazards, this network also persuades residents to learn about and support fire safety regulations.32 After a crisis breaks out, the public also donates or delivers volunteer services to provide the necessary manpower, capital, technical equipment and other resources to the disasterhit area for rescue and relief.

4.3.5 International Resources Today, crises can be global. With economic globalization and IT development, the world is becoming a global village, international exchanges become more frequent, and it is much easier for the consequences of a disaster to ripple out from one country to another. This poses serious challenges to the current model of separate crisis management efforts launched by individual countries or governments. It is imperative to strengthen global cooperation and pool international forces to address global crises.

32

See the website of Singapore civil defense troops and volunteers, http://www.mfb.sh.cn/zhuant ijujiao/hot-zu22.asp.

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Cross-Border Crisis Response

Many crises faced by one government may actually have their roots outside the country where it occurs and deal blows beyond the borders. For example, there are regional conflicts and wars, illegal immigration, cross-border drug trafficking, plane hijacks, and natural disasters such as sandstorms and acid rain, all of which can cross the border. To effectively respond to such crises, countries should make concerted efforts. After the 9/11 attacks in 2001, the United States quickly confirmed the identity of the terrorists and immediately searched for them with the cooperation of other countries. Meanwhile, when one country suffers from a major disaster, the large amounts of urgently needed materials, such as medicine, food and technical personnel, can be delivered quickly through international humanitarian aid to relieve pressure on the government of the suffering country. International emergency aid is especially meaningful and important in the case of serious floods, earthquakes and fires. Global cooperation can be highly effective in crisis response. On the one hand, there can be more understanding between different countries to help effectively settle the crisis and restore social order. On the other hand, concerted efforts can also make crisis response more efficient and less costly.

4.3.5.2

Global Cooperation Mechanism for Crisis Response

For different countries to deal with various crises through coordinated efforts, a key question is what kind of cooperation mechanism should be established. Countries may easily have disagreements as to which organizations should play the leading role and what measures should be taken. In today’s world, the United Nations (UN), with a position and authority, should play the leading role. In other words, countries can cooperate for global crisis response within the UN framework. First, the UN, as an international organization with international influence and a relatively long history, is dedicated to world peace and security and economic and social development and is widely recognized and respected by the majority of countries. Its resolutions are highly authoritative worldwide. In comparison, other regional organizations either do not have global influence or are not so widely recognized. Second, the UN and organizations within its framework, such as the World Food Programme, International Atomic Energy Agency, Food and Agriculture Organization, United Nations Development Programme, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, and the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affair, all played positive roles in handling various crises. For instance, in the late 1980s, the UN designated the decade between 1990 and 1999 as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction and formed the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. This intensified international communication and cooperation in disaster prevention and relief and boosted actions in that area in all countries. The Food and Agriculture Organization launched several emergency and early

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restoration programs and is currently working on 210 emergency programs in 65 countries and regions around the globe. These have improved our response to natural disasters and man-made emergencies and effectively mitigated the threats posed by those crises to people who suffered. After the 9/11 attacks of 2001, the United States also forged anti-terrorist initiatives with most countries through the UN. Third, the UN has strong and stable partnerships with other international organizations, and they together are about to work out crisis response models. The UN peacekeeping operations, UN aid programs and Beret action have all made great achievements, and other international organizations have aligned to the UN’s crisis response models and actively participated in its crisis relief missions. For example, aid programs by the Red Cross, World Bank, World Health Organization, and International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) are usually conducted in collaboration with the UN.33

4.4 Legal Principles in Crisis Response In previous chapters, we discussed how important it is to establish an effective national emergency early warning and fast response mechanism for government crisis management. Such a mechanism can reduce and prevent damage to people’s lives and properties, to the government’s normal governance activities and basic social order to the largest extent. In fact, establishing an early warning and fast response mechanism is only one of the main measures and strategies for crisis management. What is more important is to make relevant laws, set the government’s powers and responsibilities in emergency response through legislation, and lay down the principle of dealing with emergencies according to the law. This section will discuss the rule of law in crisis management, with the focus on issues concerning the establishment of a modern crisis management system in China. We will first briefly introduce the connections between laws and crises. The general idea is that some defects in legislation, law enforcement and judicial activities may lead to crises and that it is very important to give play to the law’s role in preventing emergencies and making necessary rectifications. Then, we will discuss approaches to public emergencies and crises from a legislative point of view and explain the difficulties caused for government crisis management by the fragmented legislation system currently in place in China. Finally, we will discuss the relationship between government power for crisis management and the protection of the civil rights of the general public in an emergency. The appropriate way out is to put crisis management into a fully law-based system to ensure that the government will exercise its crisis management power within the scope permitted by law under effective public supervision.

33

Ye (2002).

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4.4.1 Legal Issues in a Crisis Emergencies require non-programmed decision-making. As explained in Chap. 5 modern crisis management and many social crises that require nonprogrammed decision-making are the result of injustice, lack of democracy and untimeliness of programmed decision-making. Legislation, law enforcement and judicial activities in a country, if improperly handled, may all lead to social crises. Observations of real cases show that improper legal activities are likely to lead to social crises in the following situations.

4.4.1.1

Potential Crisis Risks Resulting from Legislative Defects

In legislation activities, a key point is to solicit public opinions as much as possible to make sure the law-making process is democratic and sound and the resulting legal provisions are just and fair. Any misstep in this aspect may lead to public dissatisfaction and social crises. We have indeed seen crises caused by careless issuance of laws and regulations. In response to this, China should promote the hearing system34 and other similar systems when making public policies to engage the general public in the policy-making process.

4.4.1.2

Crisis Caused by Illegitimate Enforcement of Administrative Regulations

Administrative law enforcement covers many social sectors and involves the immediate interests of legal entities, social organizations and citizens. However, there is no clear standard for administrative law enforcement. Therefore, law enforcement organs and personnel should clearly bear in mind the principles of relevant laws and regulations; be transparent, fair and just in every enforcement action; observe a sound accountability system; ensure full compliance in terms of the actors, actions, procedures and forms of law enforcement; and ensure that the actors of law enforcement have clearly defined powers, responsibilities, tasks, and tools to take enforcement actions and follow well-defined standards when metering out punishments. Similar to inappropriate legislation, defects in law enforcement may also lead to turbulence in society. To strengthen supervision over law enforcement, ensure the appropriateness of punishment decisions, facilitate the proper solution of administrative disputes, further polish the social image of administrative organs, and reduce the occurrence of emergencies caused by illegitimate law enforcement activities, China established

34

The hearing system is a necessary and standard procedure designed to listen to the opinions of stakeholders, different social circles and relevant experts when the government has to make decisions directly concerning the public or public interests, with the aim of realizing sound governance.

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its hearing system for administrative penalties in 1996 and set open and transparent hearing procedures. The specific provisions are included in the Administrative Penalties Law, which applies to formal hearings.

4.4.1.3

Crisis Caused by the Abuse of Judicial Power

According to whether the result is fair, the procedure is appropriate and the judicial system is sound on the whole, we mainly find three types of judicial activities to be likely to cause crises today.35 The first is judicial corruption, which tends to produce unfair results. This includes both unintentional misjudgment due to the lack of necessary knowledge (breach of duty) and intentional dereliction and wrong judgment due to low moral standards. The second is judicial dictation, which means that the judicial action is procedurally not open or democratic and pursues only substantial justice, not procedural justice. Common manifestations include violations to the legal rights and interests of parties to the litigation through actions such as torture for confession, obtaining evidence through violence, verdict before or without trial, denial to defense, rejection to appeal, and maltreatment of persons kept in custody. The third is judicial weakness, which refers to the failure of the judicial organ or personnel to perform their duties. Examples include rejecting civil litigations submitted by citizens or legal entities on the ground of the absence of legal basis, which leads to the fact that disputes are not settled and rights are not remedied. Due to local protectionism, some cases that do harm national interests but not local interests are not handled as should be, thus failing to maintain normal social order. The reason that lies behind this is that the judicial sector is not independent but subject to interference from various external factors, and pressure from administrative power or other social forces may bend judicial decisions. A typical manifestation of local protectionism in this regard is that a local judicial authority may be unwilling to or even refuse to assist court staff from elsewhere in enforcing well-grounded verdicts for fear of hampering local vested interests.

4.4.1.4

Crisis Caused by Legal Illiteracy or Resistance to Law Enforcement by Some Groups

In the process of economic transformation, interest distribution is not always well balanced, a sound market environment and market order are not yet in place, the environment for law enforcement is poor, local protectionism is widespread, and people generally have poor legal awareness. As a result, for some time, cases of violence have been frequent where people try to resist law enforcement, administrative management or supervision actions by force. It is thus not uncommon for judges, procurators, police officers and law enforcement personnel to be sieged and attacked 35 Li, Y. “Reflections of Judicial Inequality,” published at http://www.sinolaw.net.cn/wszh/liyong hong/lyh09.htm.

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when doing their jobs, and some even lose their lives. According to statistics of the Supreme People’s Court of China, there were 249 cases of violent resistance to law enforcement from July 1999 to November 2000, and 384 judges were injured. At present, cases of violent resistance to law enforcement have shown new characteristics. Individual actions are evolving into group attacks, oral threats escalate to the use of arms, unplanned actions turn into premeditated schemes, and resistance by the general public evolves into resistance led by local government officials. Violent resistance happens not only to judges and courts but also to other law enforcement institutions and personnel. What is more worrisome is that due to local protectionism, some local authorities usually release those who resist law enforcement with violence very soon after taking them into detention or simply do not transfer them to judicial authority as they should. Of the 401 perpetrators arrested from July 1999 to November 2000 for violent resistance of law enforcement, only 41, or 10.2% of the total, were held criminally accountable.

4.4.2 Current Crisis-Related Legislation in China Based on the above, we can see that legal affairs are closely related to crises in a country, and defects in legislation, law enforcement and judicial activities may all lead to emergencies with severe consequences. This brings us to an important question regarding the rule of law in crisis management: How can better play the role of law in preventing and correcting social disorders or emergencies? Currently, there are only fragmented instruments that we can use to respond to crises and emergencies. In terms of legislation, there are the Martial Law that targets social unrest and the Law on Protecting against and Mitigating Earthquake Disasters, the Flood Control Law and the Fire Protection Law that deal with major natural disasters. However, these laws are separate from one another and have many problems in terms of coordination when used to deal with crises and emergencies.

4.4.2.1

Martial Law

Cordonting off areas involved in a crisis is a severe way to deal with emergencies and dangerous situations. To be more specific, this is a harsh approach of confrontation used to quickly restore normal constitutional and legal order and minimize the losses to people’s lives and properties when extremely severe violent actions occur due to internal or external reasons and normal constitutional and legal means are no longer able to maintain order.36 It is a common trend in the world to specify through legislation the situations where martial law shall apply. In some countries, the constitution grants the president a wide range of power in emergency response, while in other 36

Hu (1999), p. 1298.

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countries like China and the Republic of Korea, there are martial laws in place; and in still other countries like the U.S., there is no specific legal provision about this, but the government can declare the emergency state and take corresponding actions as it sees fit. Generally, the Martial Law mainly targets serious emergencies and crises such as wars, riots, and large-scale violent conflicts. In such situations, normal approaches are unable to uphold the constitution, laws and normal social order, and the government has to make military moves supplemented by normal constitutional and legal means to respond.

4.4.2.2

Law on Preventing and Mitigating Earthquake Disasters

Earthquakes can be a kind of natural disaster that can cause crises. The Tangshan earthquake, which hit on July 28, 1976, caused 242,769 deaths and left 16,485 people seriously injured, one of the most tragic among all earthquakes known. People dread earthquakes deeply because they are unexpected and catastrophic. Therefore, “to prevent and mitigate earthquake disasters, protect people’s lives and properties, and ensure the smooth construction of a socialist country”, China issued its Presidential Decree No. 94 on December 29, 1997, to enact the Law on Preventing & Mitigating Earthquake Disasters, which was adopted at the 29th meeting of the Standing Committee of the Eighth National People’s Congress. It consists of seven chapters: general provisions, earthquake monitoring and prediction, earthquake prevention, earthquake emergency response, postearthquake relief and reconstruction, legal responsibility, and supplementary provisions. In general, the Law on Preventing & Mitigating Earthquake Disasters makes legal provisions on the duties and legitimate powers of different authorities for the monitoring, early warning, and fast response to an earthquake and the possible crisis it may cause, as well as the procedures of disaster response, and the legal responsibilities of those authorities.

4.4.2.3

Flood Control Law

Similar to earthquakes, floods, especially severe floods, can also cause emergencies and crises. Many of us may still remember the flood disaster in 1998, which caused extremely serious consequences because of its large flood flow, wide coverage and long duration. Statistics show that 29 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities nationwide suffered from floods to varying degrees; 318 million mu (1 mu equals approximately 666.7 m2 ) of farmland lost 10% of its yield, 196 million mu lost 30%, 223 million people were affected, 3004 died (including 1320 in the Yangtze River Basin), 4.97 million houses collapsed, and the total direct economic losses amounted to RMB166.6 billion. Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia and Jilin were the hardest hits.

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The current Flood Control Law of the People’s Republic of China was adopted at the 27th meeting of the Standing Committee of the Eighth National People’s Congress on August 29, 1997, enacted by Presidential Decree No. 88 on the same day, and officially took effect on January 1, 1998. Similar to the Law on Preventing & Mitigating Earthquake Disasters, the Flood Control Law consists of eight chapters— general provisions, plans for flood control, control and protection, management of flood control zones and of projects and facilities for flood control, flood control and fighting, ensuring measures, legal responsibilities and supplementary provisions. The law sets the principle of “comprehensive planning, overall consideration, priority to prevention, overall handling, and bigger picture prevails” concerning flood prevention and control and the mitigation of flood disasters and specifies the procedures in different stages of flood control, including early warning, identification, emergency response and post-disaster recovery.

4.4.2.4

Fire Protection Law

The current Fire Protection Law of the People’s Republic of China was adopted at the second meeting of the Standing Committee of the Ninth National People’s Congress on April 29, 1998, enacted by Presidential Decree No. 4 of the same year, and officially took effect on September 1. Similar to the Law on Preventing & Mitigating Earthquake Disasters and the Flood Control Law mentioned above, the Fire Protection Law aims to “prevent fire accidents and reduce the damages, protect people’s personal safety and the safety of public and private properties, and maintain public security”. In other words, it aims to address fire accidents, a special disaster type that may cause emergencies and crises. This law consists of six chapters—general provisions, fire prevention, fire protection organization, firefighting and rescue, legal responsibility and supplementary provisions, laying down the principles on preventing and handling fire accidents. However, in a report on the implementation of the Fire Protection Law, the law enforcement inspection group of the standing committee of the National People’s Congress proposed a revision of this law.37 According to the group, a number of issues are now hampering the implementation of this law: There is a serious shortage of firefighters and social firefighting forces are weakened; public firefighting infrastructure in cities is severely insufficient; the public has a weak awareness of fire prevention and control and some entities and private businesses operate against relevant laws and regulations; and, in particular, the legal system in this aspect is not well developed enough and measures are not strong enough. The Fire Protection Law has more administrative measures than economic ones regarding fire safety management; emphasizes the role of the firefighting force in the public security system but does not pay enough attention to the engagement of other full-time firefighting forces or social forces; stipulates administrative penalties but does not provide specific 37

“Law enforcement inspection group of NPC standing committee suggests revising the Fire Protection Law ASAP,” China Police Daily, June 27, 2002.

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procedures and enforcement measures; includes contradictory provisions on penalty, leaving loopholes for perpetrators; and some provisions are hard to put into practice. Therefore, the Fire Protection Law needs a revision to better meet the needs of the development of the socialist market economy. In addition to the four laws mentioned above, different industries and sectors have formulated their own laws and regulations targeting different types of crises. For example, there are the National Security Law, Public Security Law and Regulations on Security Management & Punishment, Traffic Law, Law on Civil Affairs, and Law on Industrial and Commercial Administration, among others. Every functional department, whether it deals with social unrest or major natural disasters, has its own laws and regulations but is separate from one another and highly confined to the department that makes it. In such a massive but poorly coordinated legal system, it is undoubtedly hard to determine the duties and powers of each department when handling emergencies and crises. Therefore, the rule of law has not yet been achieved in China for crisis response.

4.4.3 Rule of Law and Crisis Management The analysis above shows that on the one hand, a country’s legal system has much to do with the crises it may encounter and that defects in legislation, law enforcement and judicial activities, as well as actions such as violent resistance to law enforcement, may lead to emergencies and crises. Therefore, we should give better play to the law’s role in preventing and rectifying social disorders. On the other hand, from the legislative perspective, current laws in China in this respect generally stand separate from one another and are highly confined to specific departments. Thus, they are of no help in coordination between different government departments in crisis response. Therefore, the most pressing job is to formulate a single law on emergency response with the aim of safeguarding national security to standardize our responses to all types of emergencies and crises through legislation. Second, as mentioned earlier, crisis management in China now features scattered independent organizations and a lack of an efficient coordinator. Therefore, a national coordination authority should be established, and when doing so, we must specify the nature, function, powers, operating procedures and funding source through legislation. Third, in addition to legislation for the crisis management coordination authority, we, in a broader sense, must also legislate government power in crisis management in an emergency state, and this is also to safeguard civil rights in special circumstances.

4.4.3.1

Unifying Laws Related to Emergency State

It is common for countries to handle public affairs related to emergency states through legislation. Some countries, such as Turkey and Canada, have an emergency state law for all kinds of public emergencies. This law, as the basic guideline on how to deal

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with crises, stipulates the power and duties of the government in crisis management and specifies the principle of law-based crisis response. This is not only good for enhancing the government capability of crisis response but also enables the government to predict and be well prepared for emergencies and crises so that it will not panic and thus fail to take the best actions. Moreover, it also protects the government’s legitimacy and authority to the largest extent during a public emergency.

4.4.3.2

Establishing the Legal Position of the Coordination Authority Through Legislation

To further improve the capability to respond to emergencies and crises and the overall level of municipal administration and to do a better job in delivering various social services with joint efforts, many cities in China have put establishing an emergency center high on their government agenda. This can be regarded as the first step towards a national emergency response authority. There is no doubt that these organizations must be highly authoritative so that they can mobilize resources from all walks of life for rescue and relief at the event of an emergency or crisis. To make that happen, the most important step is to have clearly defined organizational structure, functions and position, powers and duties, and funding sources for those emergency centers through national legislation and relevant laws and regulations.

4.4.3.3

Emergency State and Civil Right Protection

The constitutions and laws of some countries, as well as several international conventions, set the lowest standards for civil rights (Western society usually uses the concept of “human right”) in an emergency state.38 The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), which took effect on January 30, 1976, the European Convention on Human Rights, which was effective on September 3, 1953, and the American Convention on Human Rights, effective since November 22, 1969, all provide that citizens shall not be deprived of their basic rights in emergency state. Such basic rights include the right to life, humane treatment, freedom from slavery, freedom from the restriction of retroactive law, and freedom of belief and religion. The International Law Association adopted and released the Paris Minimum Standards of Human Rights Norms in a State of Emergency in 1984, which set the guiding principle for all countries to formulate and adjust their laws concerning emergency states. By stipulating the basic conditions for declaring the emergency state and exercising the power of crisis management, the basic principles that must be observed and various supervisory measures, this document aims to prevent governments from abusing crisis management powers and to safeguard minimal civil rights in the emergency state.

38

Hu (1999), pp. 1308–1309.

Chapter 5

Building a Modern Crisis Management System: An Analysis of the Decision-Making Process

The public decision-making system is at the core of the public governance structure of all societies. It involves both programmed and conventional decision-making in times of peace and non-programmed decision-making in crises (referred to by Robert Heath as “pre-crisis decision-making” and “post-crisis decision-making”, respectively). When a crisis hits, the exceptive issues and environment would cause high tension and pressure to decision-makers, and they need clear and specific decision-making procedures to follow. By comparing conventional decision-making and crisis decision-making (including values, constraints, procedures, the results, etc.), this paper notes the characteristics of the latter and further explains the crisis decision-making process and some issues related to coordination. Then, it proceeds to propose several approaches to crisis decision-making. Based on the analysis of the crisis decision-making process, it is concluded that an effective crisis management system can be created only in an institutionalized governance structure, and as the crisis management system and the public governance structure are inseparable and interconnected, national stability fundamentally depends on the institutional reform of the public governance structure and thus cannot be maintained merely by crisis management, which is the core idea of this paper.

5.1 Conventional Decision-Making and Crisis Decision-Making Public decision-making can be divided into programmed decision-making and nonprogrammed crisis decision-making according to the content of the decisions to be made. Dealing with different issues in different environments, these two decisionmaking approaches differ substantially in values, constraints, processes, the results, The author hereby expresses sincere appreciation for Peng Zongchao, who determined the outline and structure of this chapter and offered valuable suggestions on revision. © Social Sciences Academic Press 2022 L. Xue et al., Crisis Management in China, Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-8706-8_5

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etc. The abruptness, urgency and uncertainties of the latter bring high tension and pressure to decision-makers. Non-programmed as it is, crisis decision-making produces critical decisions for responses in a very tight timeframe.

5.1.1 Definition and Characteristics of Crisis Decision-Making Crisis decision-making is the opposite of conventional decision-making. A crisis is usually characterized by abruptness, destructiveness and chaos. As the central concerns evolve during the incubation period prior to the outbreak of the crisis, the situation reaches a critical point, and the effectiveness of response measures has direct bearings on whether the system will collapse, return to what it was earlier, or complete a reform towards the better.1 Therefore, unconventional decision-making, which usually deals with emergencies or crises, is an important subject that requires more attention from the government. Compared with conventional decision-making, unconventional decision-making is a harsher test for the governance structure and capacity of a country and its government.

5.1.1.1

History of Research on Crisis Decision-Making

Research works on theories concerning crisis response and negotiation and case studies of crisis management have emerged since the 1950s, providing the foundation for establishing crisis management as an independent discipline or research subject. In particular, research on crisis decision-making, especially from the perspectives of behavioral science and empirical research, has attracted growing attention from academic circles.2 In the 1950s and 1960s, well-known research findings included the diplomatic decision-making model proposed by Richard Snyder, Glenn D. Peggy and Charles F. Hermann based on a comparative study of the Korean War and Cuban Missile Crisis. It was supplemented by a subsequent study of the Cuban Missile Crisis by Graham T. Allison from the perspective of domestic affairs. Then, crisis response and negotiations received more attention in the 1970s and 1980s, and the most known researcher was Glenn Snyder. The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 was a turning point in crisis research. Since then, crises have been attached with increasingly greater importance, promoting cooperation between the government, research institutions and academia. In the early stage, research on crises usually involves measurements, analogy analysis, and correlation of test variables. As it evolved, emphasis turned the creation of research concepts, general principles, models and theories. For example, in his study of the Cuban 1 2

See Fig. 2.2. For the history of research on crisis decision-making, see Hong (1999, pp. 13–20).

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Missile Crisis, Allison established three models: (1) the rational behavior model; (2) the bureaucratic organization process model; and (3) the political operation model of the Conference of Ministers. Hermann and Briddy constructed four models based on 200 hypotheses: (1) the personal stress model; (2) the organizational response model; (3) the hostile interaction model; and (4) the cost calculation model. The Iran hostage crisis was also widely discussed from different perspectives, including crisis decision-making, management, negotiation, etc.

5.1.1.2

Definition

Since a crisis contains great uncertainties and evolves fast, the efficacy of instant decision-making becomes a key and even decisive factor for all parties in it, and different conflict decision-making structures, processes, and paths may lead to vastly different results. When a crisis is involved, as the core values of the conflicting parties or the priority of the decision-making authority is severely threatened, specific measures should be adopted based on nonprogrammed decision-making. Therefore, the discussion of crisis decision-making has become a hot topic in crisis management research. First, we need to clarify the relationship between crisis and decisionmaking, and this comes down to the definition of what crisis decision-making essentially is. In laymen’s words, crisis decision-making requires an organization (including decision-making authority and relevant personnel) to work out specific measures to handle a crisis under constraints such as limited time, resources, manpower, etc., that is, to break the routine and neglect some red tapes in order to make emergency decisions as soon as possible and not to miss any opportunity to respond. Therefore, crisis decision-making is a nonconventional one-off activity.

5.1.1.3

Characteristics

From the perspective of decision-making, a crisis basically includes three elements. First, target issues occur and evolve abruptly, thus requiring immediate decisionmaking. Second, the time and information available for decision makers are quite limited. Third, the evolution of the situation endangers the fundamental interests of decision makers, but the results of decision-making are difficult to predict. Therefore, crisis decision-making is sui generis, and the substance of a crisis event is the issue under nonprogrammed decision-making. Considering the special background and target issues for decision-making, the characteristics of crisis decision-making can be summarized as follows: (1)

Different goals

A crisis usually breaks out abruptly, and as the situation deteriorates, it would bring hardly predictable and serious consequences to the organization concerned. Therefore, in such a situation, the primary goal of decision-making is to control the spread

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of the crisis and try the best to ensure personal safety and protect properties, which requires fast and efficient crisis decision-making on the part of the government and accordingly demands that decision makers have full crisis management authority so that they can make decisions on their own. In this case, due to the abruptness, severity and time sensitivity of the crisis, it is impossible to work in a democratic way, soliciting opinions from all parties as democracy is in fact subject to severe objective constraints, and democratic consultation is likely to cause delay and thus disastrous consequences. In contrast, conventional decision-making usually involves extensive and full democracy and resorts to the typical means of democracy, i.e., the majority rule. As a result, for conventional decision-making, an organization usually carries out discussions, negotiations, polls, voting and other normative procedures, and it takes quite some time before a consensus can be reached on a certain topic. In this process, people are free to express different opinions, and all voices are to be heard. Crisis decision-making and conventional decision-making are different in their goals. The former is similar to quick analysis, while the latter resembles researched analysis, which, similarly, pursues different goals. Specifically, highly programmed analysis is aimed at seeking the truth through nonintuitive or even counterintuitive solutions that require complex and accurate analysis, while quick analysis serves a more practical goal, which is to make plain recommendations to public policy makers so that they will not make mistakes on major issues. Researched decision-making, therefore, involves conventional exploring procedures and the widely accepted scientific norms of behavior, while quick decision-making has no rules to follow and thus can only be “improvised”.3 Therefore, as decision-making is involved in different fields and varies in nature, democracy is fulfilled to different extents. Generally, conventional decision-making emphasizes democracy so that on the basis of decentralized power and full expression of public opinions, the final decision can be the result of fully democratic consultations. In contrast, crisis decision-making highlights timeliness and demands centralization of power so that decision makers mainly rely on their own intelligence and courage to make judgments on the situation. (2)

Different constraints

Conventional decision-making and crisis decision-making occur in different scenarios. The former occurs in relatively ascertained external environments so that polls, negotiations, discussions and other approaches may be adopted in advance to evaluate the overall situation with a clear objective in mind. In contrast, the abruptness and uncertainties of a crisis may cause high tension and pressure and require the government to be highly responsive to the evolving situation in its decisions. Considering the fast-changing external environment and limited human rationality, it is impossible to accurately measure the conditions and the evolution of a crisis, which of course entails uncertainties. Milliken divides uncertainties into 3

Patton and Sawicki (1986, p. 5).

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three categories according to the subjective perception of decision makers: uncertainties of state, influence and reaction.4 As a result of the uncertainties arising from these decision-making scenarios, the government should implement contingency decision-making based on the evolution of the situation, especially in a crisis when uncertainties accumulate substantially. In general, the constraints that an organization faces in a crisis mainly include the following: First, urgency. In conventional decision-making, decision makers often have ample time to develop and revise drafts before the formal and final decision is issued. However, in a crisis, decisions must be made fast and resolutely. The sudden outbreak of a crisis forces the government to make decisions based on limited resources and information and within limited time. After the outbreak of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant leakage in 1979, for example, the governor of Pennsylvania had to make a decision immediately on whether residents would be evacuated. While quick decision-making might affect the quality of the decisions, it would lead to more negative consequences if the government was hesitant. The temple dispute between Hindus and Muslims of 1992, which is one of the most serious sectarian conflicts since independence of India, serves as a typical example of poor performance. In that crisis, the failure to make timely decisions resulted in nationwide riots, caused serious consequences and damaged the image of the Indian government in the world. In addition, both the U.S. President Jimmy Carter and the Japanese Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori received widespread criticism from the public because of their delayed responses to the Iran Hostage Crisis between 1979 and 1981 and the collision of the U.S. nuclear submarine with the Japanese fishing boat Ehime Maru in 2001. For crisis decision-making amid great uncertainties, therefore, the government should give top priority to timeliness, acquire a keen insight as required for dealing with various crises, make an accurate assessment of the situation to the best it can, play to the score tactically, provide timely guidance, rule by law decisively, and impose effective control over the regions affected by the crisis in order to settle the crisis at an early time point and prevent it from spreading or getting worse. Second, limited information. For conventional decision-making, decision makers usually have a relatively comprehensive and profound understanding of the issues concerned, and they can hold hearings to collect opinions from the public. Some decision makers may resort to internal discussion and debate or even return to alter previous decisions. Along with the increasingly extensive application of new technologies and computers, the modern management information system receives normative application and thus enables decision makers to conduct detailed analysis of all factors involved before making and announcing a final decision. In a crisis, however, just as the bounded rationality model proposed by Herbert Simon in Administrative Behavior (1947) indicates, (1) decision makers actually have 4

Milliken (1987).

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no access to all relevant information; (2) decision makers only have limited capability of information processing; (3) decision makers take action based on a primitive impression of the situation; and (4) the selection behaviors by decision makers are influenced by the essence and sequence of information. Therefore, despite the efforts to make decisions in a perfectly rational manner, human beings can only pursue their choices of satisfactory solutions with the bounded rationality they possess at best as a result of their limited knowledge and capability. In general, the constraints on information available for crisis decision-making are mainly manifested in the following three aspects: First, incompleteness. Due to the randomness and uncertainties of a crisis, a large volume of information varies along with the evolution of the situation. As a result, decision makers need to chase the latest update all the time. However, due to the urgency of the situation, it is impossible for decision makers to obtain all the information related to the crisis in a very limited period of time. Second, delay. Due to the fast evolution of the situation during a crisis and the necessity of transmitting information from the field to the crisis command and decision makers, information passes through multiple parties, and it is virtually impossible for top-level decision makers to obtain information immediately after it appears. Finally, inaccuracy. The crisis decision-making process involves a series of relatively fixed procedures, including problem identification, goal setting, plan making, evaluation and selection of the best solution, and implementation of the decision. It is actually a process of information input and output. However, information may be easily distorted during feedback and processing, adding to the difficulties of maintaining correctness and effectiveness in the process. Moreover, since the crisis monitoring system lacks an effective supervision network, rumours and hearsays may spread easily in society. Third, limited human resources. Due to the heavy pressure for time during a crisis and the extremely limited available information and alternative solutions, decision makers are under huge pressure and have to rely on their own intuition to some extent, which requires excellent psychological qualities. The basic elements of these psychological qualities include courage, prudence, resolution, and self-control. If decision makers do not possess such qualities and are instead timid, indecisive, emotional and impulsive, they will surely make poor decisions in the event of a crisis.5 In other words, the performance of the government in crisis decision-making manifests to a large extent the capabilities of decision makers, which are reflected in the various stages and aspects of the decision-making process. Therefore, in crisis decision-making, the shortage of human resources is first and foremost manifested by the lack of highly capable decision makers. The combination of particular decision-making environments in a crisis would lead to an increase in in-group pressures and thus hamper the mental efficiency, truth verification and moral judgment of the decision-making group. Additionally, referred to as “group 5

Jiang (1996).

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thinking”,6 this phenomenon would affect the investigation of the target issues and possible choices, information collection and processing, formulation of contingency plans, and the quality of crisis decision-making by the government. The second evidence is the lack of specialized technical talent for crisis decisionmaking. The modern decision-making process has many dimensions, and thus, it is impossible for an organization to fully understand every aspect involved in the process and all the technical requirements. Some crises may implicate advanced technologies (e.g., nuclear leakage, hazardous substances, terrorism, etc.) and thus be subject to constraints because of the inherent conditions of the decision makers and environment. In such a context, decisions can only be made based on the opinions of available experts. When the explosion broke out at Chernobyl nuclear power plant near Kiev in the former Soviet Union on April 26, 1986, the firefighters who were the first to arrive at the scene were exposed to intense radioactivity, and as a result of the lack of relevant knowledge and necessary protective devices, suffered a lot before chemical defense forces arrived to make remedies. Fourth, lack of technical support. Along with the development of new technologies, conventional decisionmaking has become increasingly technology-based, automated and programmed. For example, the extensive application of computers has greatly facilitated conventional and programmed decision-making and data processing, which used to be completed manually, making things automatic. As an increasing number of operational research tools have been put into use for decision-making that previously had to be based on human judgments, programmed decision-making has grown and spread rapidly. Additionally, computers have helped extend the use of mathematical techniques to solve problems that cannot be solved without large computing devices and, based on new simulation techniques, have further extended the application of programmed decision-making. If such a decision-making process is implemented by combining mathematical techniques of quantitative decision-making with data processing technologies, office automation can thus be gradually realized.7 Similarly, decision makers need to acquire certain specialized technical equipment, such as transportation and communication devices and computer systems, which will be used to support quick decision-making to control the spread of the crisis and protect lives and properties. However, once a crisis breaks out, this specialized technical equipment may fail to function, which brings great difficulties for decisionmaking. Many major accidents are directly related to the poor quality of computer software. The explosion of Ariane 5, launched by the European Space Agency on June 4, 1996, is a striking example of software error-caused disasters. Other examples include the missile confrontation that resulted in the bombing out of the home camp by mistake in the Gulf War, widespread blackout in the eastern United States and Brazil, and the failure of the telephone billing system in Germany, which all caused public protests. 6 7

Janis (1982). Qtd. in Deng and Wu (1999). He and Wang (1988, pp. 287–313).

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(3)

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Different decision-making procedures

Decision-making processes implicate the generalization and summary of relevant rules. Scientific decision-making relies on programming, which, however, is not a necessary component in the general decision-making process. Conventional decision-making and crisis decision-making have different characteristics, which must be understood in a flexible way. Conventional decision-making follows specific routines and standard operating procedures, which is a specific process based on historical conventions and experience that decision makers can use as a reference. The organizational structure for conventional decision-making defines a set of ideas and prognoses on who should be responsible for definite types of decision-making. Standard operating procedures ensure that the entire process follows specific patterns. Of course, conventional decision-making by the government can also enhance public awareness of democracy by engaging enterprises and other social groups in the decision-making process. In addition, the government should establish an open feedback mechanism, including hearings for legislation, regular inspections, public suggestion soliciting organizations and other communication channels that connect the government and the general public. Crisis decision-making is a typical nonprogrammed process, of which the special circumstance demands simplification of the procedures on the condition that rationality and reasonability are not hampered so that it becomes novel, unstructured, and even extremely influential. There is no “panacea” for crisis decision-making because every crisis is unique, the situation is highly likely to be unpredictable and unstructured, or because the stakes are so high that solutions must be tailored. As the crisis decision-making process is simplified, the available time, information, options, and human resources are extremely limited, and the understanding of decision makers regarding the information and options they have can only be partially rational. Thus, crisis decision makers should rely on their own judgment based on experience, insights, and intuition, which would play a decisive role in the selection of solutions in some cases. Therefore, crisis decision makers must always be brave and creative in some way. (4)

Different outcomes

According to the views of different government authorities and scholars, the evaluation of decision-making outcomes should cover efficiency, effectiveness, availability (or the amount and types of services provided), publicity (or the audience’s understanding of the decisions), scope of services (how well the services provided satisfy the actual needs), predictability, democratic control, equity, etc. As options are thoroughly discussed through a fully democratic process in conventional decision-making, any decision thus made is fully informed and based on free expression of and debate on various different views. In addition, conventional decision-making occurs, the decisions thus made are implemented in a highly certain environment, and decision makers can rely on a controllable and adjustable structure and adopt various measures to promote the smooth implementation of the decision.

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On the one hand, decision makers can utilize a variety of advanced technologies to forecast and monitor the effectiveness of their decisions and analyze the potential constraints; on the other hand, they can also establish a complete information network as well as a decision monitoring system, which can form effective supervision to help reduce the distortion of information, which is likely to happen when higherlevel officials pay inspection visits to basic-level institutions. Generally, therefore, the outcome of conventional decision-making is predictable. In contrast, crisis decision-making involves different issues and backgrounds. Crises hit abruptly and usually evolve in ways total out of human control. Therefore, decisions must be made fast, under high pressure and within limited time. In this process, decision makers cannot make judgments or inferences based on careful thoughts and thorough reasoning but have to base their decisions on personal experience, wisdom and observation of the situation. Therefore, such nonprogrammed decision-making is essentially a fuzzy nonexpectation-oriented process. So what will be the outcome? Will it be distorted in implementation? How would it influence the audience? Decision makers have no time to ponder all these questions thoroughly, and due to the impact of intense emotional factors on the decision-making process, it is difficult to predict the outcome.

5.1.2 Conventional Decision-Making Versus Crisis Decision-Making The above is a discussion of the differences in the values, constraints, procedures and outcomes produced from different target issues and environments. However, it should be made clear here that programmed conventional decision-making and non-programmed crisis decision-making, although two different types of decisionmaking, still share much in common. “They are not two separate poles but form a continuum between them. From the perspective of fuzzy mathematics, the membership function can be used to determine whether the decision-making method is closer to programmed or non-programmed decision making, which are just names.”8 The close connection between conventional and unconventional decision-making can also be observed in reality, and the relationship between the two can be described in the following two aspects:

5.1.2.1

Precondition of Crisis Decision-Making: Failure of Conventional Decision-Making

Crisis decision-making, which is a nonroutine process, is often closely related to the outcome of conventional decision-making. For example, a large number of accidents have occurred in China since 1999, and in particular, some severe and extremely 8

He and Wang (1988, p. 288).

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severe accidents have aroused the attention of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council. The causes include (1) some regions, authorities and institutions attach greater importance to production than to safety and the prevention of accidents; and (2) the relevant laws and regulations are not fully observed or strictly enforced, and violators are not duly penalized. Illegal production and operation, poor security management and safety supervision and even malpractice, corruption and powerfor-money deals prevail in some regions. Inadequate administration, serious bureaucratism, dereliction of duty and malfeasance can easily lead to accidents that may exert severe negative impacts on society. Therefore, China needs to continuously strengthen administration, strictly implement relevant provisions and requirements, and truly put all relevant regulations into practice so that laws are fully observed and strictly enforced and that violations are duly prosecuted. On the basis of security inspection, efforts need to be made to constantly improve relevant laws and regulations, strengthen regular administration, and ensure that production safety and accident prevention are ensured through sound regulation and legislation.9 Earlier in this book were detailed elaborations on the environment and causes of crises in China in transition, and from there, it is fair to conclude that the various causes of crises are closely related to China’s development process, social system, and the evolution of specific incidents and individuals. Therefore, it will take a long time for us to improve our response to emergencies and to build a complete crisis management system.

5.1.2.2

Outcome of Crisis Decision-Making: Better Conventional Decision-Making

Although many crises that require crisis decision-making are the result of unfair, undemocratic and untimely conventional decision-making, it is inevitable that improvements in conventional decision-making systems rely on inputs from crises and unconventional decision-making. As a routine process, conventional decision-making is frequently applied in normal circumstances to address common issues. This process can be repeated when a situation is similar to one that has previously occurred, has a fixed structure and follows standard procedures. Decision makers can make use of all these instead of doing everything anew for each and every decision to make. However, to accumulate such experience, rules, standard operating procedures, organizational structures, etc., decision makers must try to identify the causes, learn lessons, and seek organizational innovations in every crisis. After the disastrous fire of June 16, 2002, in Lanjisu Internet Café, Beijing, for example, safety inspections were swiftly arranged in various regions so that Internet cafés that violated relevant laws and regulations 9

Refer to the speech of China’s Vice Premier Wu Bangguo on the videophone conference on strengthening safe production and preventing safety accidents held by the Central Committee of the CPC and the State Council in Beijing on April 7, 2000, http://www.setc.gov.cn/jjyx/setc_jjyx_ main_58.htm, 2000-04-07.

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were duly prosecuted. As a result, the possibility of crises in Internet cafés across the country was greatly reduced. Therefore, to realize efficient crisis decision-making, it is necessary to strike a balance between making decisions fast and making improvements to the decisionmaking system. For daily public decision-making, we should adopt scientific and democratic methods to reduce the occurrence of crises at the source, while for unconventional emergency decision-making, we need to formulate effective objectivebased crisis management plans and learn from the experience in a timely manner to revise and improve the conventional decision-making system so that we can respond better to future crises and do a better job in preventing similar crises from happening in the first place.

5.1.3 Stages of Crisis Decision-Making Robert Heath, an Australian expert on crisis management, explains the connection between conventional decision-making and crisis decision-making from another perspective. He divides decision-making for crisis management into two stages: precrisis decision-making and in-crisis decision-making. Details are given below.10

5.1.3.1

Pre-crisis Decision-Making

According to Robert Heath, precrisis decision-making demands multiparty participation. With adequate time and information, the best decision can be made based on collective efforts, and this should go through the following eight steps: (1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

10

Identify the target issues: As there is always a gap between what is expected and what truly happens, decision makers will find a clear problem at the beginning of each decision-making process, and this is when they should nail down the problem that this process aims to solve. Confirm the standards and fact that the decision can be based on: An analysis of the proposals and constraints for the decision to be made, decision makers must fully understand what they are to decide on and what are the standard and criteria to follow. For this, decision makers should not only refer to a variety of possible standards but also evaluate what each of the options may produce. Determine the evaluation standards, methods, and weight of each indicator: To ensure consistency and a sound structure, the weight and definition of each criterion and indicator should stay the same in all plans and options. The weight can be set to any value as long as they can reflect the appropriate position of each indicator in the whole system. Develop different options: There are always different approaches to accomplishing one set task, so decision makers can prepare different options through

Heath (1998, pp. 259–275).

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(5) (6) (7)

(8)

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brainstorming and formal/informal consulting sessions to be well prepared for all possible situations and turn “unexpected” into “expected”. Analyze the options: Once most options are ready, decision makers need to assess their respective pros and cons. Select the best option: The plan that scores the highest is the best option. This is how decision makers should choose the best option available. Carry it out Decision-makers should inform all stakeholders and all actors of their choice, and in the meantime, they should check the decision-making procedure and evaluate the impact of the final decision. Review the decision-making procedure and the impact of the final decision: Decision makers need to give a playback of the decision-making process and double check the possible impacts of the final decision to improve their decision-making capability.

5.1.3.2

In-crisis Decision-Making

Based on the rationality of decision makers, the procedures of precrisis decisionmaking analyzed above are similar to a complete set of standardized operation procedures in conventional decision-making. However, as analyzed above, the limited time and incomplete or uncertain information available during a crisis might lead to higher or unpredictable costs, require more resources than what is readily available, and add to the possibility of making an incorrect or inappropriate decision. For example, according to Brehmer, decision makers are likely to make three kinds of mistakes in a crisis: shift in objectives, excessive emphasis on one single objective at the expense of others, and denial of reality and thus rejection to making any decision at all.11 On the basis of this, Robert Heath proposes another model that is different from precrisis decision-making, i.e., in-crisis decision-making. In reality, the bounded rationality, complex plans and considerations, problems that come out incessantly and the whole lot of decision to be made often intertwine with cloud minds of decision makers and distort their judgements, leading to blind spots. In reality, the decisionmaking process is more likely to be a collection of saltatory rational thoughts, and decision makers tend to build simple models rather than complex ones, so in many cases, good enough or second best options are often made. Robert Heath also introduced the “optimal” decision-making methods proposed by other theorists and researchers, which are worth learning, including “natural decision-making environments” (NDM) proposed by Klein (1993) in view of the real environments of crises and “recognition primed decision-making” (RPD) proposed by Frederick (1995) and Klein (1993) that can be used to help decision makers act properly.

11

Qtd. Heath (1998, p. 269).

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5.2 Analysis of the Crisis Decision-Making Process In reality, crisis decision-making is usually based on incomplete information about the actual situation. As a result of the hiatus of key information, decision makers may suffer from psychological unrest, which would definitely exert negative impacts on their decisions. Thus, crisis decision-making is undoubtedly affected by the high pressures and subjective judgments of decision makers. Therefore, we need to determine the general rules and principles from as many case studies as possible and minimize the misuse of nonprogrammed decision-making principles in crisis decision-making.

5.2.1 The Process of Crisis Decision-Making It is generally believed that as a result of the absence of pertinent rules, crisis decision makers should rely on their own intuition, experience and wisdom to make decisions fast and respond under high tension and pressure within limited time. In practice, however, this may not be true. Here, we will discuss how to improve crisis decisionmaking based on an analysis of the process, although a crisis situation admittedly differs vastly from normal conditions.

5.2.1.1

Decision-Making Process

A set of systematic procedures and analysis methods have been developed for decision-making on various social issues. Decision-making models available for experts and scholars mainly include the following: • Peter F. Drucker lists five elements for effective decision-making methods: Determine whether the essence of the target issue is normal and whether the solution relies on developing pertinent rules or principles. Identify the problem-solving norms or, in other words, define the “boundary conditions” of the target issue. Search for the proper approaches to implementing the norms, and then consider the necessary compromises, adaptation and concessions so that the decision makers are accepted. Consider the execution methods in the decision-making scheme. Collect feedback in the process of implementation to verify the applicability and effectiveness.12 • Oleg Larichev presents a general approach to and a set of reasonable procedures for choosing the target issue: Determine the steps to take precisely, consider the target and means, select and delve into the options, and decide on the best choice.13

12 13

Drucker (1978). Larichev (1988).

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• He Zhongxiong and Wang Wei propose the general procedures for decisionmaking: Investigate, study and propose the issue; analyze the system and determine the target; collect information and conduct scientific prediction; formulate an appropriate plan and conduct analog analysis; make a comprehensive comparison and evaluation on the plan; weigh the pros and cons and make the final decision; implement the decision and control the feedback.14 • Carl V. Patton and David S. Sawicki propose a rational policy choice model: Define the target issue, establish evaluation criteria, identify possible options, evaluate the options, select a preferred policy, and implement the selected policy.15 • Robert Heath proposes an eight-step approach to optimal decision-making in a crisis (see above). Any sound decision-making process must be sound and systematic, and each step taken should be well grounded and carefully positioned in a system of organic connections. From the above analysis, it can be seen that experts and scholars from home and abroad share largely the same views concerning decision-making procedures, so, simply put, the crisis decision-making process can be divided into five stages: define the target issue, set the goal, make the plans, choose the best option, and evaluate the performance.

5.2.1.2

Constraints

If the above process is thoroughly followed, the decision made tends to be perfect, but such a programmed and standardized operation procedure is usually no more than a castle in the air because decision makers will always encounter a variety of special circumstances and difficulties and, with bounded rationality, cannot make judgments in a totally rational way in a real decision-making scenario. What are the constraints on decision-making in a crisis? When discussing the characteristics of crisis decision-making and conventional decision-making earlier in this book, we provide a brief description of the constraints on crisis decision making: there is limited time, information, human resources and technical support. In addition, we also compared the goals, decision-making procedures and outcomes of conventional and unconventional decision-making, casting light on the special characteristics of crisis decision-making. However, these are all presented for a relatively shallow discussion. In general, in crisis management, the following models can be adopted in the study of the various constraints on the decision-making process: (1) the cognitive decision rules that emphasize the limitations of crisis cognition, such as the limited time and information channels available to decision makers. This is similar to the bounded rationality model of Robert Heath; (2) the affiliative decision rules, which highlight the impacts of interpersonal relationships inside and outside an organization on the behaviors of decision 14 15

He and Wang (1998). Patton and Sawicki (1986).

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makers, e.g., maintaining or enhancing their power and position within the organization or obtaining greater social support; (3) the self-serving and emotive rules, which emphasize the impacts of individual motivation, needs, interests on decision-making, considering the decision makers usually give priority to the interests of individuals rather than the organization.

5.3 Approaches Crisis decision-making can be frequent for both organizations and individuals. The quality of decision-making in such circumstances has direct bearings on the effectiveness of actions. A comparative analysis of the two cases mentioned above (the Regulations on Restricting Dogs Domestication of the People’s Government of Beijing and the Iran hostage crisis) indicates that crisis decision-making aims at specific issues in a particular environment, of which the outcome and impact are highly uncertain. Therefore, compared to conventional decision-making, crisis decision-making is more complex and with higher stakes hinged to it. Therefore, we need to consider how to make the best decision and how to make the process more democratic and decision better grounded in a crisis situation. Here, we will present a preliminary introduction to several major crisis decision-making methods based on the consideration in this respect according to different crisis situations. Mostly developed in the process of conventional decision-making, these methods are of great significance to crisis decision-making.

5.3.1 Quick Decision Analysis The primary concern in the decision-making process is to accurately identify and perform a detailed analysis of the target issue. Quick decision analysis facilitates swift and effective application of relevant theories towards the development of policies. This method was first proposed by Carl V. Patton and David S. Sawicki in their study of local traffic issues.16

5.3.1.1

Proposal

They divide the policy-making process into research analysis and preliminary analysis. According to them, researchers in colleges and think tanks, with sufficient funding, time and data, are well positioned to adopt researched methods in their research of public policies to seek the truth that lies beneath the surface and find nonintuitive or even counterintuitive solutions. In contrast, decision makers in the 16

Patton and Sawicki (2001, pp. 1–20).

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public sector usually need to respond to critical issues within very limited time, so policy analysts and planners are required to complete their research based on limited funds and data within limited time. In such a context, the analysis is based on a more concrete objective, i.e., to make simple recommendations to public policy makers so that they would not make mistakes at key points. This is referred to as “quick preliminary analysis”. The choice of method largely depends on whether the method can help address the various issues smoothly within the available time so that policy analysts and planners can quickly complete the project and decision makers can develop satisfying policies. In crisis decision-making, we need to address certain specific issues under particular conditions. The abruptness, destructiveness, disorder and uncertainty of the crisis cause high pressures on decision makers. To ensure that the organization involved can survive the crisis with minimal damage, major decisions must be made quickly. Meanwhile, the more serious the crisis is, the more urgent it would be for decision makers to pour oil on troubled waters. In this case, the quick preliminary analysis method can be used. In particular, crisis decision-making is usually completed by some interim organization, and time is usually extremely limited. Therefore, quick decision-making becomes particularly essential.

5.3.1.2

Description

Patton and Sawicki divide the quick and preliminary policy analysis method into six steps: (1) identify and refine the target issue; (2) establish evaluation standards; (3) confirm the policy options; (4) evaluate the policy options; (5) demonstrate and compare policy options; and (6) supervise and evaluate the implementation of the policies. These are the major steps of the process, and each can be further divided. Based on the differences in training, available time for analysis, complexity, resources and interorganization relationships, policy analysts can take different approaches. In fact, the so-called “quick preliminary analysis method” is to some extent in harmony with the aforementioned rational decision-making model, the bounded rationality model and the models/definitions mentioned in the analysis of the crisis decisionmaking process in terms of basic conceptual characteristics, operation, etc.

5.3.2 Emergency Consulting with Experts The bounded rationality model indicates that in a crisis, decision makers do not have access to all the relevant information on the scale, form, intensity, development trend and many other aspects of the crisis to help them identify the root causes of the crisis and that while bounded in information processing capability, decision makers are usually subject to high pressures under certain specific environmental portfolios, which would lead to collective blindness and seriously affect the quality of crisis decision-making. To ensure that decision makers properly investigate the target issues

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and possible options, they must make full use of the various “external brains” or, in other words, give full play to think tanks during information collection/processing as well as in modifying and improving contingency plans.

5.3.2.1

Building Think Tanks and Expert Pools

A modern crisis decision-making think tank is usually a soft science research institution. In general, it hires experts and scholars who have specialized knowledge, is expected to produce intellectual achievements toward specific goals or in specific manners, and is mandated to arrange information collection and consulting activities for crisis management. After World War II, a number of consulting firms emerged to meet the needs of analyzing various policy options. The first of them was RAND, which was famous at the time. It was founded in November 1948 and accomplished a series of exemplary research programs for the U.S. Air Force during the 1940s. Thompson, Ramo, Woodridge Inc., Stanford Research Institute, Hudson Institute and countless other similar institutions were established in succession after 1954. Throughout the postwar period, the number of global consulting firms increased steadily. In addition to RAND, famous U.S. consulting firms include American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Brookings Institution, the enterprise-oriented McKinsey & Company, etc. In 1972, Kobe University set up the discipline of systems engineering, followed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), which included 17 members (United States, Soviet Union, Japan, Canada, Czech, France, Federal Republic of Germany, etc.). Both were specialized research institutes for the science of decision-making. In addition, Hamburg Institute of International Economics, the Kiel Institute for World Economics and other economic research institutes have all played the role of think tanks for decision-making by governments and offered important advice for decision-making at national and other levels.17 Considering the wide coverage of decision-making activities of contemporary organizations, a full understanding of all the implications and technical requirements is impossible. Therefore, for crisis decision-making, an organization should give full play to think tanks to draw on collective wisdom and absorb all useful ideas. On the one hand, think tanks are usually faced with various complex issues, which is exactly their mission. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously investigate possible solutions and gradually accumulate valuable experience in analyzing complex issues and solving problems. On the other hand, think tanks take a different approach to analyze complex issues from traditional decision makers by abandoning conformism and offering valuable independent advice as an outsider or a third party, which is usually attached with great significance by the leaders of the organizations involved. In summary, the basic functions of modern think tanks in organizational (especially governmental) decision-making generally include the following:

17

Hu (1999, pp. 1246–1247).

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• Information collection and well-grounded prediction (as the government’s “telescope”); • Plan making and comprehensive analysis and evaluation (as the government’s “external brain”); • Follow-up inspection to improve feedback (as the government’s “eyes and ears”); • Independent investigation to reveal the causes of crises (as the government’s “supervisor”); and • Talent training, talent pool building, and exchanges (as the government’s talent pool). To do a good job in the event of a crisis, think tanks must do adequate research in their daily work, simulate crisis situations, and determine appropriate countermeasures; otherwise, it would be of no help to the government in crisis response. Correspondingly, for the government and other decision-making organizations, sufficient efforts must be made before any crisis hits to build their think tanks.

5.3.2.2

Expert Prediction and Emergency Consultation

With think tanks readily available, organizations may put them into use for better decisions whenever appropriate. First, think tanks should play their role in giving early warnings and providing information for crisis decision-making. It is advisable to engage experts from various fields in the decision-making process, and these experts are expected to comprehensively analyze and study the history, current situation and evolution of the target issue and predict where the crisis may hit, how likely it will truly hit, and what frequency and severity will occur if crises do occur. They may do this by intuitive induction based their specialized knowledge and experience and according to the external social and/or natural environment to help the government formulate strategies and contingency plans and ensure sound crisis decision-making and management. Famous examples include RAND’s predictions on the Korean War and on the artificial earth satellite incident. In addition, Hudson Institute (U.S.), Nomura Research Institute (Japan) and International Institute for Strategic Studies (U.K.) have all made satisfactory predictions.18 Second, and more importantly, when a crisis truly happens, decision makers must make full use of the expertise of think tanks. A think tank usually includes professional teams for policy analysis based on a complete set of policy research methodologies, guiding policy research toward specialization and large-scale development. For some technically complex or highly specialized problems, think tanks are all the more important. However, it must be noted here that when making use of think tanks, decision making must allow think tanks to work independently and raise opinions different from what the government expects on the one hand; on the other hand, they must 18

Bao (1997, pp. 295–306).

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not give up on their power to make their choices independently or let the think tanks take their place as decision makers. The government must always stay at the helm.

5.4 Current Status of Crisis Decision-Making in China and Suggestions for Improvement The above analysis mainly focuses on the characteristics, process and methods of crisis decision-making from the theoretical perspective. In particular, several decision-making models can provide a basic framework to help China deal with realistic problems in transition. Next, we present an analysis of the difficulties and their causes according to the actual situation of crisis decision-making in China and give policy recommendations on how to enhance the effectiveness of crisis decision-making as China strives to build its own crisis management system.

5.4.1 Current Status of Crisis Decision-Making in China Globalization and informatization have had substantial impacts on the decisionmaking, structure and operation of administrative organizations. In particular, informatization has changed the decision-making process, management structure and operational model of these organizations to a large extent. It is fair to say that globalization and informatization have raised new requirements for the decision-making system and in the meantime provided favorable external conditions and motivation for adjusting and improving the structure of our decision-making system. Then, while China is still transitioning, what should the Chinese government do to meet the challenges, reinforce the foothold and visibility of our crisis decision-making authority, build its capacity to run independently, and improve its performance? First, let us see the difficulties that crisis decision-makers face in China today.19

5.4.1.1

Inadequate Awareness and Understanding of Crisis Decision-Making

According to Robert Heath, crisis decision-making can be divided into precrisis decision-making and in-crisis decision-making (basically equivalent to conventional decision-making and crisis decision-making, respectively). This means that attention is needed not only after a crisis break out but also beforehand when we can do conventional rather than unconventional decision-making. Observation shows that in China, failure to make fast and effective decisions within limited time and under high pressure to take the situation under control is not the only flaw in crisis decision-making. 19

Zhang (2001).

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Additionally, decision makers (mainly governments at all levels) usually fail to learn from crises, and they thus tend to find themselves in a ditch of insufficient policy resources at their disposal, including financial and material resources, manpower, information and all other kinds of supplies. This severely affects the functions of the decision-making system. To tackle this problem, Chinese governments at all levels, as crisis decision makers in crises, shall work to coordinate conventional and unconventional decision-making, ensure the leading role of the former and the supplementary role of the latter, and strengthen guidance and prevention efforts in their daily work to fundamentally improve the public governance structure and nip the bud of crises in the early stage.

5.4.1.2

Defective Crisis Decision-Making Organizations

China lacks specialized, standardized, institutionalized and efficient core crisis decision-making organizations. Traces of the traditional planned economy system serve as a catalyst for the departmentalization of powers and interests. Decisionmaking thus tends to become a means for seeking departmental powers and interests, and the function and performance of relevant authorities are thus negatively affected. Mirroring the decision-making system, the information system also takes a hierarchical structure where information has to go a long way before reaching the decision makers at the top, adding to the possibility of errors and distortion. Poor coordination between higher- and lower-level governments has been an important factor behind tragedies, such as mine flooding incidents in Nandan, Guangxi, the flooding of the Fuyuan Coal Mine in Yuncheng, Shanxi, and many more. In addition, many Chinese policy advisory bodies (think tanks), without sound and systematic theories and methodology, rely too much on the decision-making system rather than spending time and energy, as they should do relevant research on their own based on reality or collect necessary information on crises to build a case pool for empirical analysis. This has led to a boom of arbitrary orders as well as a failure to provide crisis decision makers with expertise and wise advice. This is not how think tanks should do their job.

5.4.1.3

Low Transparency and Predictability of Crisis Decision-Making

Currently, China is still in need of a unified crisis management coordination institution and effective legislation for the issuance of administrative rules. These defects result in low transparency, which, in turn, affects the effectiveness of government crisis decision-making. For example, after the “AIDS injection” incident in Beijing and Tianjin in late 2001, various explanations came out for why this happened, but none was confirmed anyway, and the local public security, public health and other relevant authorities said no more than “it is not yet time to disclose more information.” This made it very difficult for the general public to determine the truth or to understand the situation properly.

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Another manifestation of low transparency is the absence of a unified, timely and authoritative media support system for the dissemination of relevant information. This usually results in divergent public opinions and sharp deviations from the official casualty data. To make things worse, in some cases, local governments tend to refuse public supervision and can even resort to violence when cornered by persistent journalists. To block and control the circulation of information, they may even use the police force to keep journalists within their control with illegitimate measures.20 Low predictability is mainly seen in the implementation of decisions. Where there is a measure, there is a countermeasure. Many policies issued by a government authority fail to serve their purpose in reality because people seem always able to find a way to circumvent them. This is also a major cause of frequent crises. On May 4, 2002, for example, extremely severe accidents occurred at three different small coal mines, killing 59. Specifically, flooding at the unlicensed Fuyuan coal mine in Hejin, Yuncheng, Shanxi took 21 lives, the gas outburst at Lianyuan, Loudi, Hunan claimed 15, and the gas explosion at an unlicensed coal mine in Weining, Bijie, Guizhou left 23 deaths.21 Although China has always attached great importance to production safety, introduced a series of policies and measures in this regard, and even given repeated orders to close down unlicensed small coal mines, some enterprises and local governments still rely heavily on them to deliver good GDP and other performance indicators, thus turning a blind eye to safety management. This renders production safety management policies largely futile and makes accidents highly likely. Inadequate enforcement will inevitably affect people’s choice as for what they do and hamper reasonable resource flow and allocation, leading to social disorder as well as poor performance of policies.

5.4.1.4

Low-Caliber Crisis Decision Makers

Crisis decision-making is a very complicated process. With high uncertainties, a turning point may occur at any moment during a crisis. Fast and effective decisions are therefore key to successful crisis response, but this can be very demanding for decision makers in terms of their adaptability, flexibility, authoritativeness, selfconfidence, coordination ability, etc. Many crisis decision makers in China are not adequately qualified for this job. First, some of them have never received basic training for crisis response and lack the necessary knowledge for crisis decision-making. According to the State Administration of Production Safety, some of the severe safety accidents that occurred during January–June 2002 were caused by violation of safety rules, and even more serious

20

For detailed description of the information flow media support system for crisis decision-making, see Sect. 4.2 of Chap. 4. 21 The State Administration of Coal Mine Safety reported 10 accidents caused by mishandling production safety of coal mines, http://www.ah.gov.cn/zhxx/b7c17d33-8f99-11d6-9441-00d0b7c22 28a.htm, 2002–07-07.

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was that some decision makers and rescue forces lacked the very basic knowledge about what they were doing. In addition, they usually fail to draw reference from previous crises in their routine work and thus are unable to prevent similar crises from happening again. For example, after the fireworks explosion of March 11, 2000, in Shangli County, Jiangxi Province, which claimed 33 lives, the county government issued one document every three days on average, but none was truly implemented effectively. As a result, a similar tragedy soon occurred again on August 11 of the same year.22 Third, decision makers in China are all similar in background and training, and there is a severe lack of expertise and compound talent. In particular, as the globalization process continues, we need to train a large number of talents who deeply understand the international economic, political, legal and cultural situations and play their part in the development of new international economic rules. However, such talents are scarce in China.

5.4.1.5

Inadequate Innovation in Crisis Decision-Making Tools

We are now in the middle of a technological revolution, and decision-making is moving towards the direction of programmed, automated and standardized decisionmaking. However, China lags behind in creating new crisis decision-making tools. Decision makers are not yet able to utilize advanced technologies and methods effectively, flexibly and reasonably in practice. These include various information technologies, artificial intelligence, operations research, planning theory, game theory, systematic analysis, and more. In today’s information society, many decision makers still stick to the traditional way of impulsive and arbitrary decision-making based on personal experience, knowledge, and wisdom, but this is undoubtedly prone to errors. Second, crisis decision makers have not mastered the art of using “external brains”, and they tend to be emotional and opinionated when making decisions, keeping think tanks outside, intervening in their work, or imposing unrealistic demands on them. As a result, think tanks become dependent, can hardly offer any options other than the one government officials tend to favor, and have no courage to speak up even if they find government decision makers are highly likely to produce wrong decisions. Third, policy interventions are carried out merely through administrative decrees and guidance due to the absence of a relevant legal framework. In addition, crisis decision makers are inclined to take complex and interdependent social, economic and ecological issues too simply. For example, for frequent safety accidents in recent years, it is important to introduce relevant laws, clarify the responsibilities of government authorities, change the current situation of multiparty management with no one truly taking the responsibilities, ensure production safety, deal with the aftermath and hold relevant people accountable according to the law. China has issued or is about to issue the Production Safety Law, the Measures for Accountability of Safety 22

Liu (2001).

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Responsibility of Administrative Examination and Approval Departments and other legal documents which will help address the various issues in this regard in crisis decision-making.

5.4.2 Recommendations for Improvement Considering the problems in China’s crisis decision-making system presented above, we will now discuss how to improve the current situation and enhance the efficiency of crisis decision-making of the Chinese government through institutional reform and/or innovations targeted at the various difficulties in globalization worldwide, especially information globalization. The aim is to help China establish a modern crisis management system as soon as possible.23

5.4.2.1

Transform Our Approach to Crisis Decision-Making

As globalization progresses, it is imperative that we change our understanding of decision-making and what we ultimately pursue in it. Specifically, such a transformation involves the following aspects: • Precrisis decision-making: Chinese organizations should make more efforts towards democratic and sound decision-making in normal circumstances, establish effective organizations, systems, regulations and institutional arrangements in this regard before anything special and urgent happens, be well prepared for intelligence collection, trend prediction, resource utilization and effective and legitimate use of power upon the outbreak of a crisis. • Prioritization of efficiency: To ensure fast decision-making within limited time during a crisis, decision makers must reduce delays in their actions, enhance the sensitivity of the decision-making system to the environment, improve responsiveness to changing situations, and make their decisions more forward-looking and more effective for prevention. • Emphasis on communication: As decision-making tends to occur in more conflict situations, decision makers should give full consideration to all parties involved and make use of a variety of modern information technologies to carry out timely, interactive and large-volume information exchanges between them on voluntary and reciprocal bases in pursuit of win–win results. • Technological innovations: In the context of globalization, innovations are now produced more from interactive and systematic, rather than linear, processes, and the same should apply to crisis decision making. Decision makers, thus, must have a better grasp of the art of decision-making and master more technological tools. 23

Zhang (2001).

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5.4.2.2

5 Building a Modern Crisis Management System …

Improve the Organizational Structure for Crisis Decision-Making

Crisis decision-making almost always relies on certain organizational structures, and improvement in this regard can be pursued in the following aspects: • Establish a core mechanism for crisis decision-making and relevant coordination work: Decision-making power should, to an appropriate level, be concentrated in a comprehensive coordination institution to facilitate integration. Meanwhile, efforts should be made to improve the coordination and communication of the decision-making system. • Build better think tanks for crisis decision-making: The various information and consulting agencies or systems for crisis decision-making should stay relatively independent so that they can provide relevant information for crisis decisionmaking in a timely and effective manner to help decision makers keep track of the evolution trend of the crisis and produce multiple options that may work. • Improve the decision-making capability of local governments: In the context of globalization, the power for crisis decision-making has been delegated to local governments to some extent, thereby posing higher requirements on their decisionmaking capability. China needs to establish a crisis decision-making coordination mechanism that combines incentives and constraints to encourage and drive local governments to build their capacities in this regard. 5.4.2.3

Enhance the Innovation Capability of the Decision-Making System

With rapid progress, information technology has not only greatly changed the way people live their lives but also had a substantial impact on the operation, organizational structure and working procedures of the government. For crisis decision makers, there are clear opportunities and challenges to respond to. • Utilize knowledge infrastructure: Decision makers should take full advantage of schools, training institutions, research laboratories, telecommunications facilities, libraries, databases, and other facilities to make their research better grounded, and their decision-decision-making efforts more specialized and targeted on an enlarged scale. • Make full use of information technology: Crisis decision makers should ride tide science and technology development, especially progress in information technology and e-government applications, and make full use of these technologies to improve the collection, storage, extraction, analysis and exchange of information to make decision-making processes more standard, sound, and efficient. • Create new decision-making methods: Establish dedicated independent organizations, identify the causes of crises in a transparent way, build a crisis case pool to facilitate review of and learning from previous cases, prevent similar disasters and

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accidents whenever possible, and create new crisis management methods based on actual conditions and needs. 5.4.2.4

Create Better Environment for Decision-Making

Reform in crisis decision-making is closely connected to national development, social system evolution and the progress of individuals. Therefore, policy coordination is key here. • Progress in the legal environment: Move faster to complete legislation for decision-making responsibilities and procedures to clarify responsibilities, powers and interests of all parties. Move faster towards legislation for the press and information disclosure mechanism to ensure a moderate level of freedom of the press and open up ways for the media to report crises in an orderly manner. • Improvement in the social participation mechanism: Establish and improve the hearing system and the public supervision system, and make use of Internet technologies and other tools to promote public, programmed, and transparent crisis decision-making, and develop non-governmental organizations to promote democracy at the basic level and improve the public governance structure of China.

Chapter 6

China’s Practices: Systems, Institutions and Case Studies

In the previous chapters, we discussed some theories regarding the basic principles, relevant measures, methods and international experience in building a modern crisis management system. Observations and analysis show that China, in transition, has entered a period of frequent crises, so it is imperative for us to establish a modern crisis management system. Thus far, China is still exploring ways to do this, and we can only proceed from the concrete practices in China to try and grasp the general principles of building a Chinese model based on studies on relevant system building efforts, practices at the local level and specific cases. Therefore, we choose the 1998 floods, a serious natural disaster that occurred a few years ago, for a case study on the Chinese government’s emergency response and disaster relief efforts. Another case study is carried out on the emergency response system of Nanning, which is the first joint emergency response system in China. Through investigation and studies, we try to understand the organizational structure, operational mechanism, achievement and difficulties of such systems. Our goal is to provide a useful reference for the building and operation of a modern crisis management system in China. Finally, we also include a case study on the mine flooding accident in Nandan, Guangxi, to provide a preliminary demonstration of the application of the theories we previously discussed in this book and to suggest that crisis management system building is a long and complicated process closely related to the coordinated development of society, political governance structure and the economic system.

6.1 Analysis of the System: Management of the 1998 Floods In 1998, due to the abnormal climate, China experienced severe flooding of major rivers, including the Yangtze River, Songhua River, Pearl River and Minjiang River, among which the Yangtze River flood, affecting the entire basin, was the second worst in the twentieth century following the 1954 flood, the flooding of the Songhua River was the worst of basin in the twentieth century, the Xijiang River flood was © Social Sciences Academic Press 2022 L. Xue et al., Crisis Management in China, Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-8706-8_6

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the second worst in Pearl River basin in the twentieth century, the Minjiang River flood was the worst in the basin in the twentieth century. Under the leadership of the Chinese government and the CPC Central Committee, the Chinese army and the people fought the floods with strong determination and perseverance, made good use of the flood control structures built since the founding of the People’s Republic of China and the material strengths accumulated since economic reform, managed to sustain the various dams along the Yangtze River and Songhua River, protect major cities and traffic routes, ensured the safety of people’s lives and properties to the largest extent possible, and minimize economic losses. It was a full victory, and after the floods retreated, a series of reconstruction efforts and various water conservancy projects were launched. Through a detailed description of the Chinese government’s emergency response and disaster relief in and after the 1998 floods, we will hereby analyze the organizational mechanism, operational process, outcomes, and possible problems with the aim of informing future crisis prevention and response in relation to natural disasters and contribute to the building of a modern crisis management system in China.1

6.1.1 The 1998 Floods In the summer of 1998, due to the abnormal climate, China saw more rainfall than usual in most areas. With lasting heavy rainfall, the entire Yangtze River Basin experienced the worst flooding since 1954; the Songhua River and Nenjiang River basins also suffered serious flooding rarely seen before, affecting up to 180 million people and claiming 4150 lives. Up to 183.893 million people across the country were threatened by floods, 6.85 million houses collapsed, 13.299 million more were damaged, and 22.292 million hectares of farmland fell its victim, with 13.785 million hectares having a lower harvest and 5.295 million hectares producing nothing at all. The floods caused RMB255.09 billion in direct economic loss, which spread across 29 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities. Among them, 11 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, including Jiangxi, Hunan and Hubei, suffered bitterly.

6.1.2 Flood Control and Preparedness Efficient coordination and operation in emergency response, first of all, comes from the law-based division of responsibilities and functions and law-based coordination among all relevant authorities. At the same time, an effective monitoring and early warning system is also extremely important. Because the relevant authorities had

1

This section on the emergency response and disaster relief is mainly adapted from: Wang (1999), People’s Republic of China Water Conservancy Department (1999).

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Fig. 6.1 Framework of emergency response in China. Source Wang (1999)

discussed the predicted disaster beforehand in February 1998, the losses caused by the disastrous floods were minimized.

6.1.2.1

Operation Mechanism

Disaster management for the floods in 1998 was led directly by the central government, with local governments at all levels taking charge of specific tasks, cooperation and support from various authorities and active participation of the military. The local level was pivotal in this system, and the overall structure of the system is presented in Fig. 6.1.

6.1.2.2

Pre-Crisis Emergency Response

In February 1998, the Office of the China Committee for the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction organized a symposium, at which experts from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, China Earthquake Administration and Chinese Geophysical Society’s Natural Disasters Prediction Committee discussed the possible conditions of the coming flood season and concluded that a major flood disaster was likely to occur in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River that summer. According to experts’ opinions, the central and local governments made the following arrangements: • • • • • • •

Organize a revision of the flood diversion plans for various major rivers; Confirm flood control plans; Improve the disaster early warning system; Formulate emergency evacuation and relocation plans; Launch a national disaster relief communication network; Organize emergency rescue forces; Reinforce embankment;

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• Make flood control supplies readily available; • Build the reserve of disaster relief supplies, including tents, foods, medicine, lifesaving equipment, etc.; and • Intensify training for frontline disaster management personnel. Before the catastrophic flood, opinions were fully expressed concerning the possible disaster and all preparations that can and should be made. Before the flood season, the State Flood and Drought Control Headquarters predicted that the flood would impact the entire Yangtze River Basin according information from the meteorological authority; the first national meeting on the preparatory work for flood control was held a month earlier than in previous years so that comprehensive arrangements were made and specific requirements were put forward; the flood preparation work and implementation measures, especially those for the Yangtze River Basin, were double checked; the list of chiefs responsible for flood control were made known to the general public to strengthen public supervision; the flood response plans were revised and the prevention system was launched; funding was increased to strengthen a number of unsafe and weak embankment sections, dams and water gates; rescue forces and relief supplies were reserved and allocated… All these efforts laid a solid foundation for the later fight against the disaster. In accordance with the unified administration of the State Council and the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, water conservancy authorities at all levels carried out preparatory work conscientiously; provinces in the Yangtze River Basin, including Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Anhui, and Jiangsu, also stepped up their preparatory efforts in accordance with the prevention requirements established during the 1954 floods, while other provinces also got well prepared.

6.1.3 Emergency Response After the catastrophic flood occurred, crisis management immediately moved into the second stage—in-crisis management. All relevant authorities took emergency response measures quickly to protect people’s lives and properties as much as possible, effectively prevent the disaster from spreading, and minimize losses.

6.1.3.1 (1)

Emergency Response Measures

Evacuation and relocation • After receiving the early warning for the imminent disaster, county governments made announcements of evacuation repeatedly through radio, television and various other media, explaining the means of transportation, the evacuation routes and the locations of temporary shelters, so that all people threatened by the coming disaster got the information.

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• Township and village officials were dispatched to places where people to be evacuated lived to give them detailed explanations of the situation and help them make the move. • Emergency rescue forces were organized to deliver medical services, ensure water supply, carry out safety patrols, and remove obstacles on the water when necessary to rescue those who were trapped in the flood, on rooftops, or up in treetops. According to statistics, in 1998, a total of 18.393 million people who were threatened by floods were evacuated, greatly reducing casualties. In the end, the floods caused 4150 deaths, a figure slightly higher than the average yet far less than the numbers of 145,000 in 1931, 30,000 in 1954, and 7300 in 1991. (2)

Field assessment

(3)

Disaster assessment teams were established by governments at all levels and sent immediately to disaster-stricken areas at the earliest time possible to comprehensively assess the situation. Relocation of victims Displaced victims were relocated in various ways. Specifically, they were asked to • Go and stay with relatives and friends temporarily; • Stay at nearby settlements in unaffected areas as arranged by the government; • Borrow public houses; and • Stay in shelters or tents set on top of dams.

(4)

Food and clothing for the victims

(5)

Food: Arrangements were made according to specific situations. Specifically, those lodged in shelters on top of dams mainly received convenience foods such as bread, steamed buns, instant noodles, biscuits, drinking water, water purification equipment or substances or well water; a daily allowance of RMB23 was given to people who stayed with assigned host families; and a one-time grant for travel expenses and meals was given to those who went to stay with relatives or friends. Clothing mainly came from donations. The Ministry of Civil Affairs organized clothing donation campaigns in 13 provinces and municipalities, such as Beijing and Tianjin, for flood-stricken province autonomous regions and municipalities. In merely 20 days, more than 100 million pieces of clothing were collected, delivered and handed out to victims before the weather turned cold. Medical care • Many medical service and public health teams were sent to the disaster-hit areas to deliver services;

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• Medical stations were set up at major shelter locations to provide medicine for disease prevention and treatment; • Victims were organized to keep their living environment clean as a way to prevent and control diseases; • Publicity and communication efforts were carried out through radio, television, newspaper pamphlets and more to raise people’s awareness of disease prevention and control; • Unaffected provinces were paired up with those affected to deliver various kinds of support; and • Disease monitoring and reporting systems were established. (6)

Donations As the conditions worsened, life in disaster-stricken areas became more difficult. People from all walks of life across the whole nation, of all ethnic groups, as well as people in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Macao, Taiwan and overseas Chinese showed great concern and earnestly asked how they could send donations to support the disaster-hit areas. Under such circumstances, the central government decided to launch disaster relief programs. On August 23, the State Council instructed the Ministry of Civil Affairs to coordinate disaster relief donation campaigns across the country, and the Ministry immediately set up a leading group for this purpose. • The Ministry of Civil Affairs, China Charity Federation and the Red Cross Society of China successively set up dedicated accounts for disaster relief donations; • Civil affairs authorities at all levels set up special teams to receive, manage and distribute donations around the clock; • The Ministry of Civil Affairs closely cooperated with transportation, railways, civil aviation, customs and other authorities to ensure that donations were received, approved for entry into China, and delivered within 24 h; • Charity performances were held frequently to raise funds: the Ministry of Civil Affairs and the Ministry of Culture jointly organized the large charity show “Together We Build the Great Wall”, and the China Charity Federation, the Red Cross Society of China, and CCTV jointly hosted the large charity show “United We Stand”; • China also reported its situations to the United Nations to ask for international aid.

6.1.3.2

Characteristics of the Emergency Response

The combat against the floods in 1998 was carried out under the direct leadership of the central government, and it was made clear that the goal was to protect the Yangtze River levees and to ensure the safety of major cities and protect people’s

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lives. The People’s Liberation Army was mobilized to help fight the battle. Generally, the measures taken by the Chinese government in flood control in 1998 have the following characteristics: (1)

Centralized command and wise decisions

(2)

Throughout the emergency response process, the central government paid close attention to the development of the conditions, attached great importance to the protection of people’s lives and properties, and directly led crisis management efforts. On August 7, at a critical moment in the fight against Yangtze River flooding, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee convened a meeting and made the Decision on Rescue Work for the Yangtze River Floods. Actions were immediately followed to carry out the overall emergency response arrangements decided on. The high-ranking officials of the Party and the central government went to the frontline, leading the disaster relief campaigns. To implement the decision of the Central Committee, on August 11, the State Flood and Drought Relief Headquarters held a special meeting in Jingzhou, Hubei, and produced eight specific measures to protect the Yangtze River levees regardless of how difficult it could be. Local governments were required to strengthen patrol and inspections on dikes, reinforce and heighten the levees urgently, prepare for breaches, act swiftly to remove any dangerous condition and replenish all supplies as soon as possible, make good use and reasonable allocation of the rescue and emergency response forces available, and ensure that all arrangements were sound and well grounded. Utmost efforts of both military and civil forces

(3)

In the 1998 floods, the water surface rose to levels beyond the capacities of the dams at a considerable part of the embankments along the Yangtze River and the Songhua River, and risks and dangers were widespread. At critical moments, the central government dispatched military forces without hesitation to join the fight, and they undertook the most dangerous, urgent and difficult tasks, making key contributions to the final victory. For example, it was the army that guarded the Honghu Lake dikes and blocked the breach at Jiujiang, and it was also the army that kept the Daqing Oilfield intact and protected Harbin city from the disaster. According to statistics, in the 1998 floods, a total of 36,240,000 people from the PLA, including over 110 generals and more than 5000 high-ranking officers, participated in the fight, and military vehicles, boats and aircraft made 56,670,000, 3,230,000, and 2241 trips, respectively, for rescue and relief purposes. At peak time in late August, over 8 million people joined the fight against the floods, including 6.7 million along the Yangtze River and 1.1 million in Northeast China. Concerted efforts of the whole nation The whole society was supportive of the fight against floods. The State Council utilized the premier’s reserve fund to provide RMB 1 billion of additional funding for the fight and related emergency management efforts. The State Planning Commission, Economic and Trade Commission, the Ministry of

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(4)

Finance, and the Ministry of Civil Affairs timely allocated funds and supplies; the Railway authorities made special transportation arrangements for the army to join the rescue work at the frontline; civil aviation authorities arranged flights for disaster relief; the Ministry of Transport closed down shipping services in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in a timely manner; telecommunication institutions worked to ensure smooth communication regarding flood control; the power sector ensured uninterrupted power supply; the public security organs in the affected areas stepped up their security efforts; publicity departments provided timely and comprehensive news coverage of the flood conditions and rescue progress; the State Flood and Drought Relief Headquarters collected large quantities of emergency supplies from across the country and delivered them to the affected areas as fast as possible. Generous donations and support for the fight against floods came from Chinese people of all ethnic groups, from the Hong Kong SAR, Macao and Taiwan, from overseas Chinese, and from other countries, international organizations, and foreign enterprises. Fully science-based efforts

(5)

In handling the 1998 floods, the water conservancy authorities at all levels closely followed and analyzed the situations to give their opinions in a timely manner; the meteorological authorities provided timely weather forecasts for reference. Experts of water conservancy and meteorology, together with engineering and technical personnel, conducted scientific analysis on rainfall, river water levels, dike conditions and defensive situations and proposed timely suggestions. The State Flood and Drought Relief Headquarters and the Ministry of Water Resources successively dispatched more than 30 working groups and expert teams to the frontline to guide flood control efforts. According to statistics, more than fifty thousand engineers and technicians of all levels joined the emergency response to fight the floods in the Yangtze River Basin. Strictly law-based flood control

(6)

Laws and regulations played an important role in the emergency response during the 1998 floods. At critical moments during the process, announcements were made successively to declare Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Anhui provinces in emergency states in accordance with the Flood Control Law of People’s Republic of China, and the same happened to Harbin, Qiqihar, Daqing and other cities and counties in Heilongjiang Province along the Songhua River. Flood control headquarters at all levels requisitioned relief supplies, transportation vehicles and other materials, cleared barriers along the rivers, and closely supervised and disciplined the personnel responsible for flood control. Sound disease prevention and control among victims Civil affairs and health authorities at all levels spared no effort to ensure that the affected people were properly resettled, their needs for food, clothing, housing, medical care and other basic living conditions were met, and all were good enough to carry through the winter. Successful public health and disease

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prevention work ensured that no major epidemics hit after the disaster, as all major infectious diseases were effectively controlled in the affected areas. According to authoritative reports, the prevalence of 26 Type-A and Type-B infectious diseases was lower than the average levels of the past five years; the incidences of viral hepatitis, epidemic hemorrhagic fever, Japanese encephalitis and malaria were all lower than those of 1997; cases of other disaster-related diseases such as dermatitis, conjunctivitis, and enteritis were treated in a timely manner.

6.1.4 Post-disaster Relief After the floods were tamed, thousands of tasks remained to be done. The central government adhered to the principles of overall planning, sound coordination and comprehensive solution targeting both the root causes and the symptoms and, as part of the reconstruction strategies, called upon people to plant trees, turn farmland back into forests, protect embankments and cease farming on lake banks to restore water bodies, do the relief work by offering victims jobs and building new settlements for displaced people; reinforce embankments and dredge the rivers and lakes. This long-term plan for postdisaster relief and reconstruction also provided proper living arrangements for the victims.

6.1.4.1 (1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

Fast Actions to Build Temporary Housing for Winter

Under unified planning, the civil affairs, construction, land and various other authorities formulated a reconstruction plan in good coordination in accordance with local conditions. The plan was economically viable and realistic, and new villages were built for the victims. Much of the disaster-stricken rural areas thus took on a new look, and less arable land was used for housing. Buildings were more resistant to disasters, as they were built at locations less prone to floods, and other disasters and reinforced concrete or bricks were used instead of adobe wherever possible. Construction funds were raised through multiple channels, such as government relief grants, mutual assistance for labor and supplies, employment opportunities instead of monetary assistance, private loans, and other preferential policies. Recipients of government relief grants were mainly poor families affected by the disaster. Preferential policies such as the following • Organize forces from less affected areas and relevant authorities to offer technical, funding, and other material support for housing construction in bitterly hit areas;

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• Simplify procedures and reduce taxes and fees; • Stabilize prices; and • Coordinate with relevant authorities to ensure timely production and delivery of supplies for reconstruction. 6.1.4.2

Food Supplies for Victims

Depending on different circumstances, food supplies were provided for victims of the disaster in a variety of ways: Statistics show that during the disaster relief period of the 1998 floods, the central government allocated RMB 8.33 billion and a large quantity of disaster relief supplies, of which RMB 4.11 billion was used for victims’ living expenses. Local governments at all levels allocated RMB2.79 billion for victims’ housing and meals, plus RMB7.259 billion donated for disaster relief. In total, RMB14.15 billion was used on food, clothing, housing, and medical services for the victims. These laid a solid material foundation for the victims of floods to pull through the difficult time. Through the joint efforts of all sectors, China managed to relocate people threatened by floods, ensured the food, clothing, housing, medical care and other basic living needs of victims, achieved significance in the reconstruction of disasterstricken areas, and maintained social stability and economic development. Overall, we overcame the catastrophic floods rarely seen in history and created a miracle of disaster relief.

6.1.5 Post-disaster Reconstruction After the 1998 floods, China attached great importance to postdisaster reconstruction as well as to river and lake management and water conservancy work. In October 1998, the Third Plenary Session of the 15th CPC Central Committee issued the CPC Central Committee’s Decision on Major Issues Concerning Agriculture and Rural Work, which required further efforts to strengthen water conservancy project construction, adherence to the overall planning, sound coordination and comprehensive solution targeting both root causes and symptoms, and specified reconstruction strategies that combined resource utilization, risk elimination, and natural disaster prevention and control. Soon after that, several opinions on post-disaster reconstruction, river and lake management, and water conservation development were issued as a comprehensive plan regarding post-disaster water conservancy construction.

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6.1.6 Post-disaster Review and Summary After the floods were tamed, the State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters, the Ministry of Water Resources and other relevant authorities worked conscientiously to review the process of the crisis and summarize the specific experience of flood control. On the whole, we can draw the following experiences:

6.1.6.1 • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •

Early warning system and fully science-based forecast; Accurate information on rainfall, floods, and water levels; Information sharing among different authorities; Wise decisions on flood control, emergency response and disaster relief; Mobilizing the army; Coordination among various authorities for necessary funding and supplies; Engaging civil society organizations in the campaign; Pooling expertise from all relevant parties to help with the disaster relief efforts and putting local governments firmly on leading positions for the efforts; Clarification of the pivotal position of the local governments in the fight; Holding the top leaders accountable; Effective emergency evacuation and relocation of victims; Temporary housing for victims; Coordination among various authorities to ensure assistance needed; Effective and reasonable allocation manpower, materials and funds on the regional level; Mobilizing victims to carry out self-help production campaigns; Sound post-disaster reconstruction plans.

6.1.6.2 • • • • • •

Good Coordination by the Central Government

Public Participation in Disaster Relief

Letting victims join rescue teams; Mobilizing the army for disaster relief; Support from all government authorities; Participation by civil society organizations; Participation by volunteers; Donations campaigns.

From the detailed description of the emergency response and disaster relief of the Chinese government for floods in 1998, we can understand the importance and necessity of legislation in improving the organizational structure and operational procedures in emergency response. What is particularly gratifying is that in the face of the frequent crises in the transition period, Chinese governments at all levels have realized the importance of building a modern crisis management system. What

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needs to be emphasized again is that building a modern crisis management system is a long-term and complex project that requires lasting efforts in various aspects. Specifically, efforts are required to establish organizational structures and operational mechanisms, cultivate crisis awareness, and carry out reforms of the entire public governance structure in China. This will be a long and challenging process.

6.2 Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center The rapid development of China requires a crisis response system to handle numerous emergencies related to public safety, fire outbreaks, floods, and various other incidents and crises. This is a huge complex project that requires concerted efforts and effective cooperation from multiple authorities of the government based on a unified communication and command platform. On November 11, 2001, China’s first urban emergency response system was put into trial operation in Nanning, Guangxi, marking a major step further towards ITbased urban management in China. To systematically examine the current situation of the urban emergency response system in China, from July 27 to July 31, 2002, our research team went to Nanning for an investigation in the emergency response center and held discussions with the staff and personnel from relevant authorities. Based on a large amount of first-hand information, the research team reached the following conclusions.2

6.2.1 Background The urban joint emergency response system provides a single number for the general public to report all kinds of emergencies and seek help. To successfully deliver emergency services in this model, there must be a unified emergency command and dispatch center backed by a comprehensive information network and communication system to bring all relevant authorities together, including the police, public security authorities, fire brigades, first aid agencies, and traffic management institutions, to handle all kinds of emergency incidents with a fully integrated smart response program. After the establishment of the joint emergency response system, the public can call one phone number for all kinds of emergencies. Once the emergency response center receives a call, response personnel will be dispatched according to the actual situation through a computer-aided dispatching system.

2

Peng Zongchao led the case study in Nanning and completed the research report with Zhong Kaibin. This research was supported by the people’s Government of Nanning, Nanning CIER Center, Nanning Municipal Public Security Bureau and other emergency response units in Nanning.

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6.2.2 City Emergency Response Systems in China China’s efforts to build city emergency response systems have attracted attention from many city governments at all levels. For example, joint rescue mechanisms for traffic accidents have been established gradually across the country. Major cities have successively established their own emergency management systems, and there are several examples: (1)

Shenzhen emergency management system3 Shenzhen has always attached great importance to and gradually improved the foundation of its emergency management system. First, the Shenzhen Municipal Emergency Management Committee was established and collocated with the CPC Shenzhen Municipal Committee in the city hall. Second, the municipal government formally promulgated the Work Plan for Handling Emergencies in Shenzhen Municipality in September 1998, laying the foundation for sound coordination among various emergency response agencies and for unified and efficient emergency management. Third, in accordance with the requirements of the municipal government, thorough research was carried out for the establishment of an emergency command center, and an overall plan was made based on repeated demonstrations. Shenzhen also conducted a half-year investigation on fourteen institutions that handle emergency reports and requests for help and formulated an overall technical plan and feasibility proposal for a unified command center. Fourth, the city has completed the overall technical plan for the city’s emergency command center and submitted the request for relevant investment to the Municipal Planning Bureau for approval. Fifth, research has also been done on the location of the proposed command center, which will be part of the new civic center. Shenzhen’s emergency management system features excellent allocation of resources, reasonable function combinations, centralized management, and full utilization of all kinds of resources. Thus, it delivers good results with lower costs and in a shorter period of time. Generally, the emergency management system in Shenzhen displays the following characteristics: First, sufficient investment was made to ensure sound hardware conditions. Various authorities of the city have all established their own emergency command centers with large investments, and there are advanced communication and information technologies in stock for further improvements. Second, efforts were made to improve the organizational structure and strengthen team building. Shenzhen has established a relatively complete emergency management system where the Shenzhen Emergency Management

3

The introduction of emergency management system in Shenzhen in this section based on The Study and Practice of Building an Emergency Management System by Li Hua, and conference papers on Emergency Management in a Changing Society, Beijing: 2001-11-26. In addition, special thanks go to the Shenzhen Municipal Government for its support of this research institute.

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(2)

Committee is the leading organization. At the same time, all relevant authorities have dedicated staff for the command center, taking charge of daily tasks such as receiving and handling emergency reports, reporting cases to higherlevel authorities when necessary, doing the statistics, completing all kinds of maintenance work, and delivering training programs. Third, relevant systems were strengthened in an effort to standardize operations. The municipal government and its various departments established their own management systems. All departments have also prepared their own contingency plans according to the Overall Plan for Emergency Management in Shenzhen. Guangzhou’s 110 emergency response system

(3)

Guangzhou invested RMB180 million to build its 110 information system, which was launched in early October 2002. The number 110 ensures access to emergency assistance concerning firefighting, first aid, and traffic accidents. Task forces are dispatched rapidly via a convenient reporting channel. After its completion, the system, which covers the entire administrative district of Guangzhou, will completely change the current situation of multiple emergency centers working separately from one another. The system will not only save social resources but also improve the government’s operation efficiency. The integrated emergency response system of Guangzhou has proven to be quite advanced internationally in the first decade of this century. Shanghai’s comprehensive disaster reduction system On April 1, 2002, Shanghai officially implemented the Overall Plan of Emergency Management in Shanghai City through the integration of disaster reduction organizations, information, and resources to improve emergency control, response and prevention, establish a comprehensive city emergency management model, realize a unified organization and command for testing, reporting, prevention response, rescue, and relief efforts concerning disaster reduction to achieve unified planning, sound resource allocation, well-targeted construction and reasonable utilization. The newly established leading group for disaster reduction in Shanghai is composed of officials from the Shanghai municipal government and its civil defense, public security, fire control, and information service authorities. As a special leading body in the field of disaster reduction in Shanghai, the leading group has its general office, disaster reduction expert panel and emergency command center. It actually pools forces from five previous municipal disaster relief authorities for earthquake relief, nuclear response, flood control, fire prevention, and road traffic control. In terms of disaster information and resource sharing, Shanghai is about to establish a comprehensive, city-wide disaster information platform based on GIS, a contingency plan database and an 800 M wireless cluster network-based emergency response system. At the same time, a series of rules and measures will soon be formulated to support the establishment of a disaster reduction management and maintenance mechanism.

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(4)

Urumqi’s 110/120 joint response services

(5)

In September 2001, to improve response and coordination in emergency situations, Urumqi launched its joint service system for 110 and 120. By integrating the two systems, the new joint command center can prioritize requests based on specific situations and properly allocate resources to meet various needs and deliver effective and efficient responses. In this way, Urumqi greatly enhanced its capacity to handle major disasters and emergencies. Wuhan’s integrated emergency management system In 2002, Wuhan preliminarily established its integrated emergency management system. The 110 service center now handles requests for help in almost all aspects of public life, including public security, electricity, water supply, gas supply, cable television, telecommunications, water management, urban management, civil affairs, public transport, commerce, health, and various other public services.

6.2.3 Development of Nanning’s Integrated Emergency Response System In 1998, the central government of China made arrangements to encourage the development of integrated social services systems in the hope that through the joint efforts of various authorities, a social assistance framework could be established to change the situation in which emergency services were delivered separately by 110 (police), 119 (fire control), 120 (first aid), and 122 (traffic emergency) service centers. In April 1999, during his visit to the United States, Premier Zhu Rongji was invited to Motorola headquarters and the Chicago 911 center. Premier Zhu regarded a fully integrated emergency response system such as the one represented by 911 as a hallmark of a modern city as well as advanced city administration, from which China should draw reference. The jurisdiction of Nanning covers five districts and two counties (Yongning and Wuming), with an area of 10,029 km2 and a total urban area of 116 km2 . The city has 2.95 million people, including an urban population of 1.37 million, and emergency response is quite challenging here. Therefore, to better serve public needs, promote IT-based city management and improve response to major emergencies and other incidents, the Nanning municipal government launched the first integrated emergency response center in China. The development of Nanning’s emergency response coordination system is outlined below4 : In October 1999, relevant authorities of Nanning held discussions with Motorola on building a city emergency response system and formally 4

China was to establish its integrated social service systems and carry out integrated social services, with an emphasis on covering entire areas with emergency response services. However, the current situation in China, the emergency services are generally only limited to the city, which can be seen from the name “Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response center”. Therefore, there is

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signed a cooperation agreement in November 2000. Then, in October 2000, the State Planning Commission approved Nanning’s proposal to build an integrated urban emergency response system, and both the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Planning Commission and Nanning Planning Commission listed the emergency response system project as a key project of 2000 and 2001. After extensive studies and preparatory work in the early stage, the system started trial operation in November 2001. After Nanning’s system started trial operation, modifications, improvements, and further integration soon followed, and the system was gradually institutionalized and standardized. In June 2002, the Ministry of Public Security formally promoted Nanning’s practices across the country. • In November 2001, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) signed an agreement with the Nanning municipal government to provide intellectual assistance to the integrated emergency response system. • On November 11, 2001, the system was put into trial operation, and the 12345 mayor’s hotline was put into use. • On March 18, 2002, the 120 first aid system was successfully integrated. • On March 21, the 122 road traffic emergency system joined. • On April 1, the Nanning Municipal People’s government issued Regulations on Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response System (Trial), which took effect on May 1 and became the first of its kind in China. • On April 6, the 119 fire control service system joined. • On April 20, the 110 public security system was integrated.

6.2.4 Operational Mechanism Making use of a variety of digital and Internet technologies, Nanning’s urban integrated emergency response system put together all 110, 119, 120, 122 and 12345 service hotline platforms for unified command and control to make coordinated use of rescue forces across all departments involved and launch joint efforts when necessary. By calling any one number, 110, 119, 120 or 122, residents can easily get the help needed, which improves the accuracy, responsiveness, and efficiency of emergency reporting and handling, laying a solid foundation for one portal to offer access to all kinds of emergency services.

6.2.4.1

Authorities in the System

At present, the first phase of Nanning’s integrated emergency response system covers the following service providers: the 110 police service team, the 120 first aid service no specific distinction between urban integrated emergency response and social joint emergency response in this book.

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center, Nanning fire brigade (responsible for 119 fire alarm service), the local traffic police, and the letters and calls authority in charge of the Mayor’s service hotline. Details are given below: (1)

Nanning Municipal Public Security Bureau

(2)

In 1991, the Nanning Municipal Public Security Bureau established its command center. Originally subordinate to the bureau’s general office, the center moved up the hierarchy in November 1996 and was composed of the 110 call center and the corresponding service forces. On December 1 of the same year, the center commenced its operation, aiming to answer all calls and meet all emergency needs. On December 1, 1996, the Nanning Municipal Public Security Bureau set up the 110 police patrol team whose main tasks were to maintain social order and stability in a changing society and quickly and effectively crack down on various types of crimes and maintain public order, serving the people conscientiously. Its main duties included following instructions from Nanning Municipal Public Security Bureau’s 110 call center and always standing ready for any request for help. 120 emergency medical center

(3)

Nanning Emergency Medical Center was established in September 1986 and moved to the Second People’s Hospital of Nanning in August 1998 as approved by the municipal government. The center has two first-aid stations located in Jiangnan and Beihu. The center has 42 well-trained and fully qualified full-time staff members and six ambulances equipped with ECG machines, ventilators, semiautomatic defibrillators and other advanced equipment. It also has an advanced paramedic emergency communication, command and control system that supports caller ID display, digital map navigation, voice instructions, digital recording and more. The system can take three incoming calls at once. The main tasks of the emergency center are paramedic service for the entire city and healthcare services for major activities held in the city. Since its establishment, the center has seen its workload grow rapidly from 200 persons or trips per month to over 500 persons or trips per month. Fire brigade of Nanning armed police force

(4)

The fire brigade consists of four departments, i.e., the command center, the political affairs office, the logistics department, and the fire safety supervision department, one special team, two ordinary teams, eight fire control sections, seven fire control subteams, and 16 administrative offices for different functions. Traffic police The Nanning Municipal Public Security Bureau’s traffic police force, also a highway patrol police force established on July 24, 1997, has 24 departments, 11 functional units, and 13 basic-level units. It assists the management of the

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(5)

airport traffic police force, Yongning County traffic police force, and Wuming County traffic police force and takes charge of one social group, namely, the Nanning Motor Vehicle Driver Federation. It currently has 617 police officers, and the county teams under it have 114. Mayor’s service hotline The mayor’s hotline accepts calls and requests in the following aspects5 : comments, opinions and suggestions on the government’s work and staff members; opinions and suggestions on the city’s reform and opening up efforts, economic development, city building, urban management and rural development; inquiries, opinions, and suggestions on administration responsibilities, procedures and policies and regulations; opinions and suggestions on issues that directly affect people’s lives and emergency management; and opinions and suggestions on social issues that need to be resolved by the government.

6.2.4.2

Operational System

Under the direct leadership of the CPC Nanning Municipal Committee and the municipal government, the Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center is responsible for the operation, command and coordination of social emergency responses in Nanning. As we have stated earlier, the center now has members from the municipal Party committee, municipal government letters and calls bureau, the municipal public security bureau’s command center, fire brigade, and traffic police force, and the Emergency Medical Center under the municipal health bureau. People from all of these authorities work around the clock for unified responses to calls and service requests, which were originally handled separately by 12345, 110, 119, 122, and 120 call centers. The operation and coordination mechanism is shown in Fig. 6.2. The CPC Nanning Municipal Committee and Nanning Municipal People’s Government jointly set up the integrated urban emergency response center, which is designed to have 169 staff members. These include 83 regular staff members, including management and technical staff, as well as some police officers who answer calls, and 86 seconded officers from 110, 120, 119, and 122 previous call centers and other relevant departments. At present, the center has one director and three deputy directors in charge of administration, technology, marketing and police affairs, the last of whom works on secondment from the municipal public security bureau. As an organization responsible for the overall coordination and operation of the integrated urban response system under the direct leadership of the municipal government, the major functions and responsibilities of the Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center are as follows6 : 5

For details see: the Nanning Municipal Party Committee office, General Office of Nanning Municipal People’s Government. “Notice on the establishment of the Mayor’s Service Hotline”, NZBF[2001] 98, 2001-11-01. 6 For more details about the functions and responsibilities of Nanning city integrated emergency response center, see Appendix 1: Nanning Regulations on Emergency Response (Trial), Nanning Municipal People’s Government, 2002-04-18.

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Fig. 6.2 Operational structure of the Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center. Source Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center, 2002

• Provide city leaders with high-tech communication tools to ensure effective command and coordination for public security, firefighting, first aid and other public management authorities and other parties involved in emergency response and relief so that they can handle special and unexpected emergencies and major events effectively and efficiently; • When handling a joint task, give orders directly regardless of the administrative hierarchy, to lead joint operations and to appoint temporary commanders; • Schedule regular software and hardware maintenance for all authorities and parties engaged in emergency response and provide regular and free update to the various databases needed for emergency response purposes; and • Advanced technologies and platforms can be used to provide other nonemergency services for society. 6.2.4.3

System Structure

The establishment of the Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center is a new milestone in China’s emergency management capacity building and relevant IT system development. The total investment of the project amounted to approximately RMB170 million. Technology integration for this project was provided by Motorola (China) Electronics Co., Ltd. The technology demonstration was organized by the China International Engineering Consulting Corporation with technical support from the National University of Defense Technology. The software was developed by some Chinese institutions under the coordination of the center itself. At present, Nanning’s integrated urban emergency response system has a command center building 8693 m2 in floor space. The building is furnished with a call center, a response center, a mayor’s hotline office, a leader’s command center, a computer network center, a communications center, an information and communication lab, a control room, etc. It also has 800 M wireless base stations in the

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east, west, north, south, and center of the city, plus another 800 M mobile wireless base station. Thus, its wireless command signals can cover all parties involved in the integrated emergency response center within the city. Public safety, traffic, fire, paramedic and public administration information is delivered to the center through optical cables. A geographic information system covering 10,029 km2 of the urban area of the city has been developed to provide the information needed for unified command and control, including information on public safety, traffic control, fire control, paramedic services, flood control, forest fire prevention, earthquake prevention, civil air defense, public facilities and more. The electronic map in the center can display over 800,000 telephone numbers and all kinds of emergency resources in Nanning city, so all emergency calls can be located precisely on the map. The Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center uses advanced information technology to pool information and communication resources. At the same time, technological innovations have brought about necessary institutional changes. The center is a new emergency response actor suitable for new technologies. It has broken away from the compartmentalized traditional system and established a new model of operation. The overall structure of the center is shown in Fig. 6.3. The above figure shows that the technical system of the Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center consists of 14 subsystems, including the backbone computer network, the database, the computer-aided control system, the geographic information system (GIS), the wireless dispatch communication system, the wireless mobile data transmission system and applications, the wired communication

Fig. 6.3 System structure of the Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center. Source Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center, 2002

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Fig. 6.4 Structure of the Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center. Source Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center, 2002

subsystem, the AVLS vehicle positioning system, the video monitoring and display system, the voice recording subsystem, the real-time satellite image transmission subsystem, the center security system, the centralized unmanned control room monitoring system and other supportive subsystems. Motorola established a unified platform for information reception and processing based on the highly integrated systems mentioned above. The establishment of this platform has prompted the formation of a new operation model and related operation rules, breaking away from the original compartmentalized system where multiple emergency command centers ran separately. Information resources and communication means are thus shared through centralized investment and unified management (see Fig. 6.4). Developed by Motorola, the center’s system is composed of a wired communication subsystem, wireless cluster dispatch communication subsystem, mobile data transmission subsystem, wired dispatch subsystem, wireless dispatch subsystem, computer-aided dispatch subsystem, geographic information subsystem, satellite communication subsystem, backbone computer information network and database subsystem, vehicle mobile communication subsystem, video monitoring subsystem and other parts. The system, when completed, will bring together three major service systems: special service numbers, information systems and management systems. First, the system is designed to bring together the originally separate 119, 110, 120 and 122 hotline service systems and unite them under a single emergency response phone number. Thus, residents can obtain all kinds of help they need by calling one number. Second, the system also brings together the originally separated information systems of different authorities so that all of them can share information in real time

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for better resource allocation. In addition, the separate command systems of various emergency response authorities are fully integrated to form a unified command and dispatch center of the city. Thus, an orderly, responsive, and efficient emergency response can be achieved through effective coordination between all institutions and forces involved, appropriately handling emergencies related to public security, traffic control, fire control, first aid, flood control, earthquake prevention, forest fire prevention, public administration, etc. This will greatly strengthen the rescue efforts and minimize the loss of lives and properties in the case of an emergency. The establishment of the Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center has provided an efficient and unified command platform for the city’s emergency relief efforts and a powerful new measure for public security organs to crack down on crimes and safeguard public order. It has also enhanced the government’s ability to handle various emergencies and provide high-tech support for public services. It has laid a good foundation for the building of an IT-based modern city.

6.2.5 Performance As mentioned earlier, the Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center brings all emergency response forces of the city into one unified system, including the 110, 119, 120, 122, and 12345 call centers, and emergency response forces for water, electricity and gas supplies, flood control, forest fire control, air defense and earthquake response, for coordinated dispatch, and it has achieved considerable success since it became operational.

6.2.5.1

Significance

Nanning’s integrated urban emergency response system is not only the first of its kind approved by the State Planning Commission but also the first such project that the UNDP sponsored in China. It contributed greatly to Nanning’s inclusion in the first batch of national pilot cities (16 cities) for IT-based development. Moreover, the geographic information system of the Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center is China’s first digital information platform that gathers up to 56 emergency response authorities as well as socioeconomic information of the city, covering an area of 10,029 km2 (including Wuming and Yongning counties). Nanning employs digital technologies and other high-tech tools to build the first integrated urban emergency response system in China. This system facilitates public emergency reporting and saves resources for emergency response by preventing repeated building of similar but separate emergency service systems. It makes it possible for various authorities to receive and handle calls and requests in good coordination, share resources, receive unified commands, and carry out joint actions. As a result, the various departments of the municipal government can provide timely

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and efficient emergency services to the public, and the city’s overall emergency response capacity and urban management capacity have been greatly improved. Generally, the center has special significance in the following aspects: • It is a good attempt to improve the emergency response system of China, and it is also a concrete step towards alignment with international standards in public management and emergency response after China’s accession of the WTO. • In the era of economic globalization, urban management and economic development are mutually beneficial. Underdeveloped areas can create late starters’ advantages by improving their overall environment by means of technological and institutional innovations. • The system pools resources from public security, fire control, first aid, telecommunications, and many other authorities. Therefore, it prevents further repeated construction of similar but separate systems by them and saves resources such as service hotline numbers and communication frequencies. • The system further improves the municipal government’s functions and ensures that the public can receive effective and efficient services and get help when in need. It also frees the police force from the heavy workload that 110 calls unduly imposed on them. • The system is a key part of the effort to build Nanning into a smart city through IT capacity building. The public can thus enjoy real benefits brought by information technology, which will help polish the image of the municipal government. • The system represents leapfrog development in the city’s public emergency response sector, especially in terms of public security equipment, urban management, and infrastructure. It lays a solid foundation for further expansion to cover other urban management and service functions. • The system presents technological innovations to push for institutional innovations, creates actors in society that meet the needs of new technologies, and expedites the emergence of new operation models and operation rules. 6.2.5.2

Achievements

Before and after the establishment of the Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center, the number of emergency calls in the city differed greatly (see Table 6.1). At present, the center receives an average of 4500 emergency calls each day. From April 20 to June 26, 2002, it received approximately 250,000 calls in total and responded to more than 40,000 valid emergency calls. Table 6.1 Emergency calls before and after the establishment of the center Service hotline

110

119

120

Integrated emergency response center

Calls received per day

600

20

100

2700 on average 4500 maximum

Source Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center, 2002

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Table 6.2 Population, emergency calls and call center capacity City

Population (million)

Emergency calls per day

Number of emergency service stations

Number of response forces

Chicago

2.90

13,000

45

44

San Francisco

0.80

4300

34

35

Nanning

2.95

2700

8

12

Sources Chicago data come from the Beijing Public Security Bureau; San Francisco data come from the research team of the Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center; and Nanning data come from the Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center

Compared with the emergency response systems of major cities in developed countries, Nanning has very limited resources and far fewer emergency service points (see Table 6.2), but since its establishment, the Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center has made remarkable achievements in reducing criminal activities and preventing the loss of lives and properties. Nanning’s urban emergency response system has had profound and far-reaching influence at home and abroad. From November 2001 to May 2002, more than 3200 government and party officials from central and provincial levels of China as well as from the United States and Vietnam visited.

6.2.5.3

Plan for the Second Phase of the Project

From the start of trial operation of the system on November 11, 2001, which was also the day when the mayor’s service hotline 12345 was officially launched to April 20 this year, 120, 122, 119 and 110 call centers have successively joined, but the system remains quite new and far from mature. This is only the first phase of the integrated emergency response system, putting together only five emergency service hotlines. Much more remains to be done. Therefore, there is bound to be a second phase, and plans are currently being made, mainly to cover the following two aspects: (1)

Public utilities emergency response system Currently, the integrated emergency response center gathers Nanning’s municipal authorities of public security, fire control and first aid services, but many other government authorities that also play a role in public emergency response and relief are not yet included, which may render the system incapable of dealing with some special emergencies and major disasters. For example, there may be failures in water supply, power supply and gas supply, serious environmental pollution incidents such as leakage of toxic gas and mishandling of explosives, hazardous chemicals or other dangerous substances, which may cause serious consequences for public safety and require joint response.

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Based on the above considerations, the inclusion of the public utilities sector was set as a priority for the second phrase of the Nanning integrated urban emergency response system. Specifically, the following will join: • Flood control emergency command and control system; • Emergency response systems water, electricity, and gas supply; • Earthquake prevention, air defense, forest fire prevention and other emergency response systems; and • Support system for the current flood control emergency command and dispatch system and the gas pipeline gas emergency response system. (2)

Some paid services Given that there is a 311 service system that responds to various nonemergency incidents in the United States in addition to the 911 emergency service and considering that government funding for the integrated emergency response center is not yet guaranteed by law but has covered the expenses of a large staffing structure, the Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center now has plans to provide some paid services for nonemergency situations on its advanced platform. These include: • GPS monitoring and warning service for private and special-purpose vehicles; • Monitoring service for major venues, financial service outlets, and key public utilities; • New business models and new applications in commerce, tourism, healthcare, insurance, community service and other areas, e.g., security monitoring fire alarm system for residential communities and key institutions; • Personal services via a non-emergency call center.

6.2.6 Problems and Countermeasures As China’s first integrated urban emergency response system, Nanning’s system has attained various achievements since its establishment, but it is still quite new and in the early stage of operation with changes made frequently to improve and accumulate experience. Therefore, there is no doubt that it will encounter various difficulties and problems, and it is necessary to take appropriate measures to improve the system in terms of concept, organizational structure, institutional arrangements, and legislation to make it a good attempt to build an integrated emergency response system in China.

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Position

The Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center is a new actor that makes good use of advanced technologies and creates a new operation model that breaks free from the traditional compartmentalized administration system. Technological innovations give rise to institutional innovations. Therefore, it is necessary to define the center’s institutional arrangements, functions, powers, responsibilities and sources of funding clearly through legislation. Only with institutionalized and legal support can we effectively bring into play the system’s function of unified command and coordinated operations. At present, the legal status of the Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center is unclear because there is no upper-level government authority, e.g., a national emergency center, above it, and there is no past legal practice to draw reference from. Nanning Regulations on Integrated Emergency Response (Trial) state that the center, under the direct leadership of the municipal government, is in charge of the operation, command and coordination of the city’s emergency response system. In some other documents, the center is defined as a county/division-level authority directly affiliated with the municipal government with leaders appointed by the municipal government, not specifying whether it is an administrative or public institution in nature. Other documents define it as a division-level public institution set up by the CPC Nanning Municipal Committee and Nanning Municipal People’s Government.7 Unclear legal status results in a lack of power and authority in joint operations to deliver social services, and this is a clear obstacle to fast and effective government responses to critical situations. Moreover, as an institution featuring extensive participation and representation of various functional departments under the leadership of the municipal government, the organizational relationship between the center and the authorities involved in it is not defined by law either. Should the emergency response center be affiliated with one of those authorities it engages with or should be independent from all of them? Some officials of public security authorities suggest that the nature, characteristics, organizational structure and preparedness of the public security authorities determine that they naturally have the central position in an integrated emergency response operation. To get things straight in this aspect, Nanning Regulations on Integrated Emergency Response (Trial) state that public security, fire control, first aid and other public service administration institutions and institutions with the function of emergency response are jointly responsible for emergency response; that relevant institutions, when receive orders from the integrated urban emergency response center, should take immediate action; that these institutions shall announce their emergency response commitments separately based on their responsibilities and perform their duty on site in accordance with relevant conventions and norms; and that when a number of operation institutions act jointly, they should follow the 7

Outline of Report on Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response System. Reference material from “Forum on the construction of urban emergency response center, Ministry of Public Security”. Beijing: 2002-06-14.

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command of the integrated emergency response center and the designated person in charge on-site. However, these provisions are somehow theoretical and lack operational feasibility and thus cannot ensure concerted and efficient actions by all participating institutions without any thought given to departmental interests when dealing with major crises. Additionally, with more institutions participating in the integrated emergency response center, this issue will become more prominent in the second phase of development. Similarly, in terms of staffing, among the 169 members of the integrated emergency response center, only 83 are regular staff members of the center, while the remaining 86 actually work for 110, 120, 119, 122 and 12345 call centers under different government departments. These people work at the center, but they have no labor contract with it and receive no salary or any benefits from it. Overlapping management inevitably brings many troubles and ambiguities.

6.2.6.2

Institutional Functions

After the integrated emergency response center was established and put into operation, a major question to answer was what functions it should play and what responsibilities to take in response to the various crisis situations that may emerge at any time. Earlier in this book, we analyzed the six stages of crisis management in temporal order, i.e., prevention, early warning and preparedness, crisis identification, crisis isolation, crisis management, and post-crisis management. What of these should the integrated emergency response center focus on? Or should it cover all six stages of crisis management? The Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center, aiming for a unified emergency call receiving and response, resource sharing, unified command, and joint action, has achieved coordination across different authorities, police districts and different police specialties, making it possible to carry out well-coordinated emergency response actions. Therefore, the center’s functions are mainly to receive emergency calls and respond to emergencies after it occurs, which is the second stage of crisis management in both the six-stage model and the three-stage model (precrisis management, in-crisis management, and postcrisis management), and it has less to do with other stages of crisis management. Nanning Regulations on Integrated Emergency Response (Trial) contains detailed provisions concerning the center’s role in joint actions, including its power to take emergency response actions directly, to give orders regardless of administrative levels, to command joint actions and to temporarily take charge of overall command and management. Of course, to achieve rapid and accurate responses, the center should also emphasize efforts to make good contingency plans. Nanning Regulations on Integrated Emergency Response (Trial) stipulate that the integrated emergency response center, in accordance with the work plan and the actual situation, should issue instructions to the relevant institutions in a timely manner after receiving requests for help (Article 10); that the relevant institutions in the integrated emergency response system shall do regular maintenance work on the emergency response software and hardware and

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provide or update the data in various databases as well as the geographic information system of the integrated emergency response system free of charge (Article 13); and that each institution involved in the system shall establish and improve their own contingency plans and determine their institutional arrangements, personnel, equipment, and responsibilities in emergency response to ensure effective response during emergencies (Article 14). Although these provisions touch upon crisis preparation in the early stage of crisis management, various tasks in the pre-crisis and post-crisis phases of crisis management that we have discussed earlier are still not mentioned at all. In the second phase of the project, more authorities will join the system, and the center, in addition to a fast response mechanism, should also establish its early warning system and postcrisis management system and lead efforts to learn from past practices. Specifically, the following are suggested: • Crisis decision-making mechanism: Establish an integrated system with consultation and decision-making functions and a permanent coordination institution at the superdepartmental level for crisis management; formulate long-term anti-crisis strategies and contingency plans; build a database of crisis case studies and build a crisis management expert pool and relevant think tanks to form collaboration between experts and decision makers during crises. • Crisis early warning mechanism: Improve the crisis monitoring system or information monitoring and processing system; set up specific agencies and departments to make real-time judgements, and forecasts, do detailed consulting, set monthly schedules, do comparison by category, and provide contingency plans according to specific situations within each area. • Public communication mechanism: Do more to improve the information disclosure mechanism and enhance media supervision; increase public participation in crisis management through network technologies; establish an efficient crisis management information center and regularly release highly reliable information to the public; carry out quality crisis management education through school courses and employee training programs; educate the public about the logical process of various disasters and teach them some skills for self-protection. • Scenario-based training mechanism: Carry out crisis response training for different scenarios among government employees; use virtual reality technology to carry out simulation and multi-scenario demonstration concerning the causes, signs and situations of crises before anything happens, and prepare targeted crisis management strategies for major incidents and crisis-prone areas. • Postcrisis management mechanism: Employ third-party investigation institutions to conduct unbiased review and identify the causes of crises and draw lessons to prevent and reduce similar cases in the future as much as possible. 6.2.6.3

Operational Environment

As we have mentioned earlier, we must reduce administrative intervention and strengthen law-based crisis management. Therefore, the building and operation of

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such a new integrated emergency response system must be governed and protected by relevant laws and regulations. These laws and regulations should contain explicit provisions on the position, functions, powers, sources of funding, staffing, facilities and performance evaluation of this center so that all the work carried out by the center is fully law-based, authoritative, legitimate, and procedurally correct. On May 1, 2002, the Nanning Municipal People’s Government promulgated Nanning Regulations on Integrated Emergency Response (Trial), which was the first of its kind in China. This document provides a rough definition of the functions, powers, operational procedures and other aspects of this integrated emergency response system in Nanning, but it is rudimentary and lacks operability and feasibility in reality. Of course, what is more important is that Nanning Regulations on Integrated Emergency Response (Trial) is only a local regulatory document that has not yet been granted a mandatory legal status, and there is no corresponding law or regulation at the national level. For example, to ensure sound development of the 110 public security service, the Ministry of Public Security, based on the improved version of Work Standards for the 110 Service Desk of the Public Security, organized a research team to carry out investigations and studies before drafting the “110 Law” (tentative title) and made preliminary preparations for the development of the law. However, before the promulgation of such a law on the national level, the lack of authority has a serious impact on the actual operation of existing regulations in this aspect. Therefore, in the development of the integrated emergency response system, on the one hand, detailed rules with stronger operational feasibility should be formulated on the basis of Nanning Regulations on Integrated Emergency Response (Trial), and on the other hand, more importantly, the central government should strive to unify and improve the policies and laws on joint emergency response and to establish some basic principles applicable to the whole country as soon as possible, such as those regarding which special service number should be used across the country, the functions and position of emergency response centers, and their sources of funding, to provide reference for local governments in the building of integrated emergency response centers. Of course, on the premise of not violating basic principles, local governments can build emergency centers that meet the actual needs according to local conditions, such as the size, population, and economic conditions of the city. In addition to the legal environment mentioned above, another aspect of the operation of an integrated emergency response system is the social environment: How can people’s awareness be improved and their support be obtained for understanding and participation in joint emergency response efforts? At present, many calls to the Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center are false calls made arbitrarily or only to test the number. One way to solve this problem is to step up efforts in public education and publicity. Another way, which is more important, is to formulate relevant laws to specify disciplinary actions and their intensity on these behaviors.

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Funding

The integrated emergency response system requires enormous funding for its building and operation, so stable sources of funding are an important prerequisite for successful operation and healthy development of the system. The funds that the integrated emergency response center requires can be divided into two parts: one is for construction and the other is for operation. These two parts can come from different sources. The construction should be funded by public finance authorities, while funds for operation generally come from three sources: public finance; income from paid services, such as part of the basic monthly fee for telephone subscription; and miscellaneous channels, including non-governmental sponsorships and payments from insurance companies for the reduction of losses and the corresponding claims due to effective emergency response. Nanning Regulations on Integrated Emergency Response (Trial) specifies three funding sources for the center’s operation: The first is the public budget of the city, the second is sponsorship from social groups and individuals, and the third is income from paid services and other channels. At present, because the center is still in the early stage of operation, funding mainly comes from the municipal public budget. However, with the launch of the second phase, more emergency relief service projects will be included, and more funds will be needed for its daily operation. Thus, funding from public finance alone will not sustain the center’s operation for a long time. Therefore, there should be relevant laws and regulations to specify the funding sources based on the three categories given above, and advanced experience should be borrowed from developed countries (see Table 6.3). It should be noted that with time, an increasing number of cities in China will set up integrated emergency response centers, and they will likely encounter similar problems regarding funding sources for both construction and operation. Therefore, the central government must explicitly stipulate the sources of funding for the emergency response center with relevant laws and regulations. Under the current circumstances, centers in areas where conditions are ripe can have local legislation for this purpose for the time being and, as conditions improve, legislation in the regard should be put in place on the national level. Table 6.3 Sources of funds for emergency response center operation Emergency response center

US

Nanning

The regulations (trial)

Source of funding

Government funding from 911 tax (levied on telephone bills) bonds

Funding from municipal government budget and hopefully some service charges

Funding from municipal government budget Sponsorship from civil society Other funding channels

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Table 6.4 Emergency service numbers in developed countries Country

USA

UK

Japan

South Korea

Sweden

Emergency service number

911

999

110

110

900

6.2.6.5

Unified Emergency Service Number

At present, the integrated emergency response system in developed countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom generally adopts a single emergency service number (see Table 6.4). There are many phone numbers for emergency services in China, including the popular 110 public security hotlines, 119 fire alarm hotlines, 120 first aid service hotlines, 122 traffic emergency hotlines, and many other numbers for public utilities services such as water, electricity and gas supply. Take Shanghai as an example. The government announced a total of 19 emergency response authorities, including the 10 frontline authorities of the public security bureau, the civil defense office, the transport management administration, the justice bureau, the water management bureau, the industry and commerce administration, the civil affairs bureau, the health administration, the public utilities administration and the power supply company, and nine second-line authorities, namely, the garrison command, the armed police corps, the housing and land resources bureau, the landscaping authority, the environmental protection administration, the price bureau, the maritime affairs bureau, the telephone service bureau, and the city appearance bureau. Each of these 19 institutions has its own service phone number, but many of them, other than the most widely acknowledged institutions, such as 110, 119 and 120, are hardly known by residents.8 The existence of a large number of emergency service numbers has the following consequences. First, there is a huge waste of social resources. The national authority only allocates a limited number of wireless communication frequencies to each region and authority. Guangxi, for example, has 200 and 24 of them allocated to the three base stations possessed by the Nanning Public Security Bureau for its 110 and 122 emergency services. The 120 first aid system, before joining the integrated emergency response center, has no wireless communication system and relies only on a few telephone lines, which seriously affects the quality of the services it delivers. Second, the quality of emergency assistance is affected. The public often fails to call the correct number when an emergency occurs. According to a survey, if the public does not know the right number to call, the average delay for reporting or seeking assistance is more than 3.5 min. Third, some emergency call centers (mainly 110) receive a great quantity of calls asking for help beyond their scope of responsibility and power. Without knowing the exact number to call, the public often dials 110 whatever their problem may be, and as a result, 40–60% of all calls to the 110 service center are for nonemergency situations.

8

Websites, phone numbers, and responsibilities of different emergency response institutions. http:// www.cnmaya.com/maya/police/shpolonline/02/01/item/2001_01/421506.shtml, 2001–01-07.

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Therefore, establishing a national unified emergency service number will not only save resources but also facilitate the progress of the urban public emergency response system in China. In addition, it also delivers better services to the general public. Thus, it is advisable to use one simple and easy-to-remember three-digit phone number, such as 999, 995, 998, 111, or 191, instead of the other existing three-digit emergency numbers for integrated emergency response in China.9 At present, the Nanning Integrated Urban Emergency Response Center has the conditions to work under a single emergency service number, and the municipal government made the proposal to serve as a pilot city for a unified emergency service number in China, but the proposal was rejected. The difficulty of unifying emergency service numbers lies in the vested interests of the various authorities involved. Should this special number be a totally different new number or one of the many existing numbers? Many local public security authorities believe that the number should be gradually unified based on local conditions across the country, and 110 is the best choice. To solve this problem, China must establish, on the national level and as soon as possible, the basic principles to follow to coordinate among all the authorities involved.

6.3 A Case Study: The Nandan Incident 6.3.1 What Happened On July 17, 2001, extremely severe floodings occurred at Lajiapo Mine and Longshan Mine, which belonged to Guangxi Nandan Longquan Mining and Metallurgy Plant and caused severe casualties. Nandan is one of the few mineral-rich areas in the world, and flooding accidents occur in mines on a tin belt. The accident became a world-known crisis due to the large number of deaths and the hard pursuit of truth. Nandan, located in northwestern Guangxi, covers a total area of 3916 km2 . Before the underground mineral deposits were discovered, because of the barren land and the remote location, they had been poor and underdeveloped and dependent on financial subsidies from the central government for many years. More than a decade ago, abundant rare mineral resources were discovered in this area, and the tin reserve alone was estimated to be 1.44 million tons. Nandan thus became the largest tin producer in China and was known as the “town of nonferrous metals” and “tin capital of China”. This is where the accident occurred in 2001. At 3:40 on July 17, 2001, flooding occurred on operation surface No. 3 marked as −166 m in height, part of well No. 9 of the Lajiapo Mine under the management of Longquan Mining and Metallurgical General Factory.10 Actually, the company 9

In March 2002, 18 deputies of Guangxi, including Lin Guoqiang, who attended the fifth session of the 9th National People’s Congress, proposed to establish a unified national emergency service number to replace the existing multiple numbers. 10 Source: On the cause of the 7/17 accident in Nandan. Labor Safety and Health, 2001 (12).

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authority was aware of the potential water hazard in this work area but continued with risky operations. Two blastings damaged the brittle rock mass between operation surface No. 3 and the Hengyuan Mine that lay underneath, and water rushed through the rock mass from below under huge pressure, forming a 3 m by 1.2 m outlet. The strong current of water rushed in and flooded three operation areas of Lajiapo Mine, two operation areas of Longshan Mine and one operation area of Tianjiao Zinc Mine, killing 81. This is an extremely serious accident caused by chaotic mining management, longterm illegal operation, unreasonable and careless excavation, and blasting without permission. After the accident, some local government officials and leaders of the mining company colluded to cover it up and blocked the information for 10 days, which was astonishingly unethical and totally unbearable. Why was the accident not reported? The initial investigation concluded that the accident was but a rumour, and nothing happened in the next 10 days. However, some local residents continued to try to make the accident known, and some journalists risked their lives to uncover the truth. Without these, lives would have had silently disappeared from this world. Hazards and all kinds of related problems had existed for long, but government authorities turned blind eyes to them, and mine owners who had long been doing illegal businesses in collusion with criminal gangs were even honored as model entrepreneurs. After the incident was exposed, the owners took various measures to cover up the death toll and impede investigation into the cause of the accident. In addition, the latest investigations show that the boss behind Fuyuan, the company accountable for this major accident, was actually the county government. As investigation reached further into the accident, we will finally unveil the truth of and seek out the accountable persons. However, the deep-rooted problems reflected in this accident cannot be resolved in the short term. Why did local government officials and mining authorities ignore production safety, which was a field of long and heightened attention from the central government? When the inspection of the State Administration of Work Safety in June 2001 concluded that the working condition was “poor and in need of improvement,” why did the mines not suspend production for rectification? Why did the leaders of Nandan County dare to deceive their superiors collectively after the accident occurred? To answer these questions, we must reexamine the crisis and the relationship between different levels of the government as reflected in it.

6.3.2 Chronological Analysis Since detailed work records are unavailable, we can only conduct a chronological analysis based on relevant news coverage. Therefore, we will use the more generalized division of stages: pre-crisis management, in-crisis management and post-crisis management. The precrisis period covers the process of indication, signal detection and prevention. The crisis phase covers the entire period from the outbreak of the

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incident through the whole process of evolution to the final settlement of the crisis, covering damage control, the outbreak, recovery, and the entire process of the crisis. The postcrisis phase includes the period for review, learning and recovery from the crisis.

6.3.2.1

Pre-crisis Phase

At this stage, an effective early warning mechanism to prevent the crisis from happening is the easiest and least expensive way to control a potential crisis. Obviously, it is also the best approach to crisis management. However, early warnings are mostly or even completely neglected in reality. The Nandan incident is by no means merely an accident. As Wang Dexue, deputy director of the State Administration of Work Safety, once commented, “It is abnormal if no accident occurs here. Accidents are surely to happen here and big ones will definitely hit sooner or later.” According to investigations, although Nandan’s mineral resources were still in the phase of tentative exploration, planning and protectionbased development, driven by profits, risk-takers and local powers had already started their competition for illegal mining opportunities. On a simple map of mineral deposit No. 105, seven distinct lines of different covers all lead to the same deposit from different starting points. These represent seven mines under six private companies, and each of these lines involves rounds of subcontracting. Many operation surfaces had already reached the deposit area 120 m in altitude or lower. In particular, some operation surfaces of the Lajiapo Mine had reached 180 m underground, while the adjacent Longshan Mine had become a vent of the Lajiapo Mine. Moreover, as a result of careless mining, the No. 105 deposit has become a mesh-like underground reservoir with a network of caves. In the absence of aquifers, the mine has accumulated more than 30 million cubic meters of water. How can there be no accident? Flooding could occur any minute. Did no one know this? In fact, not only mine owners but also many relevant authorities were well aware of the hazards. As early as May 2001, many technical personnel repeatedly reported this to the relevant authorities and Longquan Mining and Metallurgical General Plant, the managing company of Lajiapo Mine. However, no concrete action was taken. Knowing the risks but taking no preventive measures and occasionally covering things up with false information has become the local tradition. According to a report in Yangcheng Evening News on August 7, 2001, 200 workers were killed in a mine collapse accident in Dachang Town of the same county in October 2000, but the official death toll was only 38. If relevant authorities had taken action to remove hazards by establishing an effective early warning mechanism and taking active preventive measures, would major flooding have happened? Obviously, the Nandan incident is closely related to the absence of an early warning mechanism. The question is: Why did local governments do nothing in response though they were clearly aware of the situation? Such crazy and desperate moves were driven by economic gains, which, like an invisible net, held private mine owners and local government officials tightly together.

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From 1991 to 1999, Nandan’s mining and metallurgical production expanded rapidly by 105% annually, and 70% of the county’s fiscal revenue came from mining. Under such economic ties, it is certainly only empty talk for the local government to set up a crisis early warning mechanism. Obviously, a technical and chronical analysis cannot answer the fundamental question: Why did such grave hazards not turn into a perceived sign of a crisis? Why was there no effective early warning mechanism established? We will try to provide an answer in the next section.

6.3.2.2

Crisis Phase

This phase covers the entire period from the onset to the evolution of the crisis to the time when the crisis is being settled. Damage control, crisis recovery, and aftermath management are all part of it. Undoubtedly, this stage is the most important part of the entire crisis management process. It relates to the slowdown or escalation of a crisis and is crucial for the whole process of crisis management. It goes through escalations and then the cool-down of the crisis and lasts until things get easier. It is a process of trying hard to tame the crisis. Immediately after the flooding accident in Nandan, when dozens of miners were struggling deep in the dark wells, the mine owners did not organize any rescue action but quickly started to negotiate deals under the table to cover things up. The owner, Li Dongming, spent many money to “settle” this disaster. Some was spent silencing the families of the victims. Each family received RMB20,000–100,000 depending on whether they were locals or not. The locals were given more because they were more likely to get information out and make a fuss. The rest of the money was used to mobilize a private troop of two to three hundred armed “mine guards” to keep people off the scene and keep insiders’ mouth shut. This could have totally eliminated a world-shocking mine disaster: If what happened remains unknown to the world, it can be deemed that nothing happened at all. The locals say this is a complete set of “accident management” developed by some experienced mine owners in this area. One week after the accident, the news was finally out bit by bit. Local officials (including officials of Nandan County and Hechi Prefecture) turned out to be astonishingly and consistently indifferent, saying they had no comment or knew nothing; however, hard people tried to question them (mostly journalists). Some even said with great certainty that there is no such thing. As doubts rose, they changed to say that there was indeed an accident but no one died. On August 1, government officials of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region learned about the incident from media reports, and Party Secretary Cao Bochun convened a meeting to arrange investigation work and led an investigation team to the site within the day accompanied by public security forces. The local officials still tried to cover things up. Truth was not out until public security officers arrested and questioned some mine workers. At least 78 people had died. According to insiders, the mine had a total of approximately 1500 workers, and there were three shifts per day. When the accident happened, four teams of workers were working underground.

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In the lower Lajia Mine, each team had 70–90 workers. When announcing the incident, Cao Bochun said that this case, especially regarding casualties and liability, needed to be made clear to society, the public and the central government. When the official report came out, the world was shocked. Upon receiving the report, Li Rongrong, Director of the State Economic and Trade Commission, and his party made the trip to Guangxi on the afternoon of August 3, and on the evening of the same day, Jia Chunwang, Minister of Public Security, also arrived in Nandan to investigate the mine accident.11 From July 17 to August 1, neither the mine owners nor the local government took any emergency response measures, so things aggravated fast and went totally out of control.

6.3.2.3

Post-crisis Phase

Once under control, the crisis can finally be resolved. However, a highly unstable and unbalanced state of organization or society caused by the crisis may last for some time. Moreover, some crises obviously have multiple causes and involve a number of variables and interactivity, collectively reflecting the complex and acute issues of the organization involved. Therefore, crisis management by the government and other organizations that have come out from extremely intense adversity should include regular postcrisis follow-ups and reviews to ensure that the crisis can be fundamentally solved.12 On June 5 and 6, 2002, the Nanning Intermediate People’s Court made a first instance verdict on the 30 responsible persons in the Nandan “7/17” mine disaster. Former Nandan County Party Secretary Wan Ruizhong was sentenced to death; former Nandan County Governor Tang Yusheng was sentenced to 20 years in prison; Li Dongming, the mine owner, was sentenced to 20 years in prison; Nandan Longquan Mining and Metallurgical Plant was imposed a fine of RMB20 million for illegal mining and RMB4 million for bribery, making of RMB24 million; Mo Zhuanglong, former deputy secretary of the CPC Nandan County Committee, for his participation in concealing the accident and bribery, was sentenced to 11 years of imprisonment, with final execution of 10-year prison time plus confiscation of RMB30,000 in addition to his illegal gains of RMB70,000. Wei Xueguang, former deputy governor of Nandan County, was sentenced to 14 years in prison, with execution of 13-year prison time and confiscation of personal assets of RMB40,000. At the same time, more than 20 accountable persons, including Wang Guoliang from Nandan Longquan Mining and Metallurgical Plant, received severe punishment according to the law, and illegal private mines throughout Nandan County were also closed down.13

11

Xiao (2001); Nandan mine incident: Reporters’ life in danger and the shockingly indifferent local bureaucrats. Yangcheng Evening News, August 7. 12 Please see Chap. 3 for related information. 13 Online source: People’s Daily. Online http://www.unn.com.cn.

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However, postcrisis management is far from complete. Who will appease and compensate this trampled land? How can wasted and looted resources be restored? Will the illegal mining activity come back one day? Have the criminal groups received the punishment they deserved? Do the local people understand and accept the shutdown of illegal mines? As the local economy has been severely damaged, will postcrisis management be at the cost of sending Nandan back into poverty? How can Nandan withstand the aftermath of 7/17 incidents? These are questions to be answered and resolved in the postcrisis management phase. Additionally, the perfunctory handling of the crisis without any effort to review and learn from what happened may lead to similar crises soon afterwards. For example, on June 22, 2002, a devastating explosion occurred in a gold mine in Fanzhi County, Shanxi Province. After the accident, the mining company did not organize rescue work. Instead, the authorities disposed of the bodies of the victims and concealed the death toll as well as the whole process of what happened. All the criminals and suspects were on the run or in hiding. On May 4, a severe coal mine accident occurred in Fuyuan, Shanxi Province. The evil-minded mine manager not only conducted illegal operations but also concealed the truth after the accident. When the incident was reported to the State Administration of Work Safety on May 12, more than 20 lives were lost forever… We have to face such a question: Why did such serious accidents happen so often? With further investigation, we came to strikingly similar conclusions: profit-driven mine owners had insufficient investment in production safety, and the government authorities were not well coordinated to carry out effective inspection and supervision actions. The local governments were afraid of assuming administrative responsibilities and did not respond in a timely manner to the emergency. At the same time, they often formed a community of shared interests with the mine owners. Despite the law on production safety (June 30, 2002) promulgated after the Nandan incident, together with the existing accountability system for leaders for major accidents implemented by the State Council, this administrative problem that arises from the distribution of benefits still cannot be solved if the effort is limited to the technical aspects without touching on relevant institutional issues. We will go deeper into this next.

6.3.3 Organizational Behavior Analysis 6.3.3.1

Government Performance in Crisis

As mentioned above, in terms of their causes, crises are basically radical expressions of all kinds of accumulated social conflicts and problems or the result of confronting parties trying to use unconventional or extreme methods to urge relevant government authorities to solve unexpected or long-existing problems. As mentioned above, the nature of China’s current crises is nonpolitical, mainly to defend civil rights and interests, fight for care for underprivileged groups, and seek social equality, while the political purposes and interest of some advantaged groups may also play a role.

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Crisis poses a direct threat to social stability and seriously challenges the legitimacy and reputation of the government. If the government is not able to effectively prevent and control crises or address crisis situations in a timely manner, the government will lose the ground to achieve its goals of social development and even put its own ruling power at risk. Therefore, crisis management is a comprehensive test of the government’s management capacity and efficiency or a major aspect to assess and reflect the government’s ruling power. It is not only a government’s strategic task but also an important component of its day-to-day management. The Nandan incident also highlights the key role of the government in a crisis, even though the local governments demonstrated perversion potency of crisis management by trying to hide the truth. In the following section, we will analyze the difficulties in making choices and decisions for upper- and lower-level governments in crisis management in light of the Nandan incident. Then, we will offer some recommendations according to the results of our analysis.

6.3.3.2

Media in Crises

In the current information society, with the Internet and the free flow of information, the media has a growing influence on society. At present, China is in transition; as frequent crises in recent years have had a direct impact on social stability and economic development, they constitute an important challenge that the Chinese government must face. In response to this, the media needs to coordinate with crisis management authorities and carry out concerted action toward better access to information resources. However, crisis management in China often features rejection or misunderstanding of the media’s role and social functions. In conjunction with the Nandan incident, we would like to once again stress the important role of the media in crisis management. After the 7/17 Nandan flooding accident, some officials of the local government colluded with the mine owners to hide the truth. Thanks to journalists who risked their lives to determine what truly happened, truth was finally brought to light and drew attention from top leaders. That was why normal crisis management finally started. An important social responsibility of the media is to tell the truth to the general public, that is, to realize the public’s right to know. The right to know, which means that citizens have the right to know about the government’s work and obtain public information through the media, is a civil and social right quite natural in an information society like ours today. After the Nandan accident, numerous media reports came out, and people started to worry: Will so many reports of accidents create an impression of a chaotic society and affect the correct direction of policymaking? Such misgivings pushed people away from the media. When there is an accident, people do every possible to avoid the media or shut it out, but this is a gross interference in the people’s right to know and a restriction to the media’s effort to fulfill its social responsibilities. In the Nandan incident, the local government tried to cover things up by telling numerous lies and

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spreading all kinds of rumours to create chaos, which may afford them opportunities to evade their responsibilities. The media was the one to clear up the myths and bring the truth to light. Too many reports on negative incidents may give an impression of chaos, leading people to believe that the social environment is generally chaotic and that the world is no longer peaceful. Media reports can be confusing and contradictory, and distinguishing facts from fictions and verifying the information becomes a major problem. Additionally, media reports may only bring more trouble to the government and relevant authorities, add to the pressure on them, and make it more difficult for them to straighten things up. For people’s wrong beliefs, we need to correctly understand the causal relationship between them: it is insufficient supervision, not the too many news reports that makes society seem chaotic. Confusion media reports may create, on the one hand, the media needs to be careful and responsible; on the other hand, confusion may be the result of unsmooth normal access to information, which pushes media to follow the opinions of the majority in society in choosing what to report and how to report it, and information may also be distorted in the process of transmission. For “bringing trouble to the government”, media involvement gives the government an appropriate signal of a crisis and increases transparency regarding how the government handles the crisis. Thus, the government may make use of the media to polish its public image if it fares well in crisis management. In fact, those who bring real trouble to the government are liars or corrupted officials. In terms of the relationship between the government and the media, the mass media exists as part of the public sector in many countries in the world, and the power to disseminate information is also part of public power. Therefore, how to cooperate with the media and to enhance the government’s ability to employ the media for social integration is an issue of concern. Especially when responding to an unexpected social crisis, due to the special characteristics of the content of relevant news reports and the social diffusion effect brought by information dissemination, it is even more important for crisis management authorities to have positive interactions with the media to achieve in-depth communication, coordination and cooperation. There are many lessons we can learn from the Nandan incident. Rejection to involvement of the media may make things more complicated and confusing, and this may mount to the general public’s distrust of the government. If the local government could have communicated in depth with the media in the Nandan incident, the truth would not have been hidden for so long, and the situations could have been put under control sooner and be less devastating.

Postscript

After the School of Public Policy & Management of Tsinghua University was officially inaugurated in October 2000, we were dedicated to systematic research on China’s governance structure reform in the period of transformation, and crisis management was a pressing topic. We began to collect international materials and domestic cases in early 2001. Especially after the “9·11” attack, we, through analysis and comparison based on our national conditions, put forth the viewpoint that “China has entered a period of frequent crisis and a modern crisis management system has to be established urgently”. This received close attention and support from relevant state leaders and departments. Later, we conducted a large multitude of research on a number of topics, including the transformation of public governance structure, handling of unexpected mass incidents in Chinese society, relation between crisis handling and the media, and the use of systematic analytical methods. On that basis, we held an academic symposium in the theme of “emergency management in the period of social reform” in November 2001 and set up a break-out session that focused on “crisis handling and improvement of government administration system” at the 2nd International Symposium of Public Policy & Management held by Tsinghua University in May 2002. At those meetings, experts and scholars from national and local governments, research institutions, universities and international organizations contributed their broad visions, rich experience and helpful suggestions. They included Xu Shaoshi, Deputy Secretary General of the State Council, officials from the Ministry of Public Security, Ministry of Civil Affairs and State Bureau for Letters and Calls, officials from the government of Chongqing, Shenzhen and Nanning, and representatives from Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Peking University, Renmin University of China, CRISMART of Sweden, Oxfam Hong Kong, etc. At the moment, governments of all levels in China have a huge demand for establishing the crisis management system, but theories on China’s public governance in the period of social transformation lag far behind such demand. Such a situation gives a strong boost to our research. At the same time, the latest findings by the theoretical

© Social Sciences Academic Press 2022 L. Xue et al., Crisis Management in China, Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-16-8706-8

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circles at home and abroad and the crisis management practices by governments of all levels have provided us with a solid knowledge foundation and rich empirical materials for our research. It must be pointed out that a large number of people have conducted in-depth research in relevant fields, including professor Niu Wenyuan of CAS, professor Hu Angang and researcher Kang Xiaoguang and Wang Shaoguang of the CAS-Tsinghua University Center for China Studies, researcher Ding Yuanzhu of the Research Center for Volunteering and Welfare of Beijing University, professor Zhang Chengfu and Sun Baiying of Renmin University of China, researcher Gao Houman of Hebei College of Armed Police, director Wang Zhenyao of the Disaster Rescue & Relief Department of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, doctor Hong Xiuju of the National Open University in Taiwan, and professor Bengt Sundelius and Eric Stern of Sweden’s CRISMART. Their findings laid a solid foundation for our work, and some of them actively participated in our discussions, for which we are truly grateful. The main research members in our group include Xue Lan, Peng Zongchao, Zhang Qiang, Zhong Kaibin and Zhu Qin. This is a lively and vigorous team. For more than a year, we conducted the research in the spirit of prudence, truth, solidarity and common efforts and with a strong sense of social responsibility, laying a solid foundation for the publication of this book. It is worth mentioning that doctor Peng Zongchao, a main participant of the research, provided many constructive opinions on the framework and organizational structure of this book, finalized the framework structure and outline of Chap. 5, and offered valuable suggestions when the book was being revised and finalized. He also led the investigation of cases in Nanning and completed the report with Zhong Kaibin. Doctor Gu Linsheng’s introduction to and analysis of Japan’s crisis management system is a great contribution to international references. Zhang Qiang, as one of the initial promoters of the research, played an important role in organizing and coordinating the research as a whole and did a lot with Zhong Kaibin in the completion of this book. Zhu Qin not only participated in the multitudes of investigations and organizations but also made important contributions to the introduction to CRISMART. We also want to express our gratitude to the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars (Approval Number 70125005) and the “985” basic research fund and doctor’s research innovation fund of Tsinghua University for their support; to the General Office of the State Council, Chinese Public Administration Society, and the Nanjing and Shenzhen government for their help; and to Ruicheng Management Group for its sponsorship to our symposium on November 26, 2001. We also thank Wang Zhuo, Cong Ze and Su Wan for their assistance and Ms. Sun Wenkai of Tsinghua University Press for her strong support during the finalization, editing and publication of the book. Although the book is not perfect and has many deficiencies, it is a period result of our common efforts and a starting point of our research in the next period. More issues remain to be studied regarding the establishment of a crisis management system in China. Going forward, we hope to carry out more empirical research based on China’s economic, political and social context and its interaction with administrative system reform. On that basis, we hope to put forth policy suggestions on establishing a

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crisis management system that is more suitable for China’s national conditions, more operable and quite standard. In the meantime, we hope to open the course of “social crisis management and decision making” in the MPA education system to fully utilize this platform to further promote case study and scenario simulation and analysis in that field. We believe that as the CPC and the government pay more attention to crisis management, the subject of public administration prospers in China, and the cooperation between the government and research institutes keeps deepening, a modern crisis management system will be established in China in the near future. Xue Lan October 2002 Mingli Building, Tsinghua University

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