World Meteorological Organization

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World Meteorological Organization

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START

INDEX

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INDEX

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INDEX

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INDEX

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INDEX

CONTENTS

Summary (English, French, Preface

Russian,

Spanish)

.......................

X

......................................

List of contributors Introduction Part I -

Page ix

....................................

Foreword

xiv

.................................

xv

...................................

Fascioliasis

Chapter 1 -

xvii ...........................

(Liver fluke)

1

The ‘Mt’ system for forecasting the prevalence of fascioliasis ByT: E.GIBSON

1.1

Introduction

1.2

Factors

..........................

..............................

controlling

the development

of Fasciola hepatica

1.3

Timing of the life cycle of Fasciola hepatica in Britain

1.4

‘Mt’ forecasting

1.5

Forecasting

the prevalence

1.6

Application

of the ‘Mt’ index to other countries

Chapter 2 -

...............

....................

as applied to Anglesey of fascioliasis

in England

and Wales

...........

.................

Experience with the ‘Mt’ system of forecasting fascioliasis in France .........................

By F. LEIMBACHER

6

..............................

2.1

Introduction

2.2

Methods

2.3

Results

2.3.1

Epidemiology

of fascioliasis

2.3.2

Observations

on populations

2.3.3

Scrutiny

6

...............................

6

................................

of the ‘Mt’ values

7 in west central France of tymnaea trunculata

................ ...............

.........................

2.3.4

Experimental

forecasts

2.4

Discussion.

..............................

Chapter 3 -

.............

and control of fascioliasis

7 8 10

................

10 11

Stormont ‘wet-day’ fluke forecasting ByJ.G.Ross

...........................

14

..............................

3.1

Introduction

3.2

Limitations

3.3

Epidemiological

of the forecasting considerations

14

system

.....................

.......................

14 14

START

iv

INDEX

CONTENTS

. . . . . .

. . .

3.5 3.6

Anomalies in the system . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Development and limitations of forecasts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Summary

4.2

Introduction

19

21

...............................

21

..............................

21

...............................

4.3

Methods

4.3.1

Temperature

4.3.1.1 4.3.1.2

Extra-mammalian development rates ............................... Survival.

4.3.1.3

The prevalence

22

...........................

models

22 .....................

23 26

4.3.2

prediction algorithm based on temperature ............................ Moisture models

4.3.3

Combined

4.3.4

Cost-benefit

4.4

Discussion.

4.5

Acknowledgements

moisture

and temperature prediction analysis ........................... ..............................

The use of mathematical

Introduction

.............

28 30

.............

algorithm

35 36 36

...........................

38

models for predicting the incidence of fascioliasis

ByM.H.WILL1AMsoNandR.A. 5.1

18

Mathematical models for predicting the prevalence of liver fluke disease and its control from biological and meteorological data By M. J. HOPE CAWDERY, G. GETTINBY and J. N. R. GRAINGER .........

4.1

Chapter 5 -

16

. .

The ‘wet-day’ forecasting

Chapter 4 -

system

. . . . . . . . . . .

3.4

.

WrLsoN

. . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . .

..............................

5.2

Outline of fascioliasis

5.3

Experimental

5.4

Modelling

5.5

Conclusions

39

...........................

and observational ...............................

40 ..................

programme

41 43 46

..............................

........................... Acknowledgements .................................. References

47

5.6

Part II -

Nematodes.

Chapter I-

. . .

49

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . .

. . .

51

.

.

58

The ecology of the free-living stages of parasitic nematodes

Introduction Observations

2.3

The experimental

2.4

Observations Conclusions

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

..............................

2.2

2.5

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

This influence of weather on the bionomics of the free-living stages of nematodes

BYT.E.GIBSON

2.1

47

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

B~N.D.LEvINE Chapter 2 -

39

on small plots paddock

........................ .........................

.......................... on farms ..............................

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

58 58 59 60 60

STARTvi

INDEX

CONTENTS

. . .

88

populations

. . .

89

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . .

89

of the infective pattern of larval tapeworms under conditions favourable for egg . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

89

1.3.3

Observations

1.4

Models for evaluating

1.4.1

Methods for assessing field trials . . . . . .

1.4.2

Estimates survival.

1.4.3

Changes in the infective pattern of larval tapeworms

1.4.4

Association

1.5

Summary

References. Part IV -

on the prevalence

rates of larval tapeworms

the effect of weather in regulating

. . . . .

with weather

larval tapeworm

populations

89

. .

90

. . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

92

. . . . . . . . . . . .

. . .

. . . . . . . . . .

.

93

. . . . .

95

. . . . . . . . . .

97

. . . .

. .

. . - . .

. . . . . . . .

The weather related ecology of the tick, Zxodes ricinus L.

By J. D~NELLY Chapter 2 -

associated

. . . . . .

and conclusions

Weather and arthropod parasites: (1) Ticks

Chapter l-

larval tapeworm

between weather and other factors in regulating

. .

.

in different climate zones

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

The effects of microclimate on Zxodes ricinus BYJ.NOSEK

............................

105

..............................

105

2.1

Introduction

2.2

Influence

of temperature

2.3

Seasonal

incidence

2.4

Life cycle of Ixodes ricinus .........................

2.5

Population

2.6

Trophic relationships

...........................

112

2.7

Survival conditions

...........................

113

2.8

Population

2.9

Disease relationships

2.10

Forecasts

Chapter 3 -

and humidity

on the behaviour

of Ixodes ricinus in nature

density and ecology

density estimates

of Ixodes ricinus

..................

107 110

...................

113 116

...........................

of tick incidence

105 110

.......................

and mapping

.......

116

.........................

Radiant energy and tick activity By D. E. SONENSHINE ........................

117 117

..............................

3.1

Introduction

3.2 3.2.2

activity in hard ticks (Ixodidue) Dermacentor variabilis .......................... ............................. Ixodes ricinus

3.2.3

Other hard ticks .............................

3.3

Effect of radiant energy on feeding and oviposition

................

123

3.4

Photoperiod

................

125

3.2.1

Host-seeking

Chapter 4 -

..................

and rhythms of feeding and drop-off

117 117 122 122

Climate and East Coast Fever .......................... B~D.BRANAGAN

126

..............................

126

4.1

Introduction

4.2

The course of the disease

.........................

127

START

INDEX Chapter 3 -

The effect of weather factors nematodes BYJ.ARMOUR

Introduction

3.2

Field observations

3.3

Experimental Current

Chapter 4 -

62 62 62

studies

64

...........................

67

........................

and future research

Forecasting the onset of nematodiriasis

in sheep 68

..........................

..............................

Introduction

Parasite life history

4.3 4.4

Soil temperature

4.5

Influence

68

........................

69 70

and larval activity ......................

of moisture level

Related species

68

...........................

Seasonal pattern of infection

Chapter 5 -

.........................

72

.............................

73

Forecasting the prevalence of nematodiriasis . .

B~T.E.GIBSONANDL.P.SMITH Forecasting

Chapter 6 -

in parasitic

............................

4.2

4.6

of larval development

...........................

B~R.J.THoMAs 4.1

on the inhibition

..............................

3.1

3.4

V

CONTENTS

in England and Wales

. . .

. . .

outbreaks of parasitic gastro-enteritis

. . . . . .

. . . .

. .

in ruminants in England and Wales

....................

B~T.E.GIBSONANDL.P.SMITH

74

76

6.1

Cattle

................................

76

6.2

Sheep

................................

76

6.3

Future prospects

References

..................................

78

. . . . . . .

Part III -Cestodes Chapter 1 -

77

............................

. . . . . .

. .

. . .

. .

. . . .

The effect of weather on tapeworm eggs and its epidermological . . . . . . . . .

B~M.A.GEMMELL 1.1

Introduction

1.2

Laboratory

. . .

. . . . .

studies on physical factors limiting egg survival

..........

. .

. . . .

83 83

. . . ..........

83

1.2.1

Longevity

. . . . . ..........

83

1.2.2

Effect of high temperature

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . . ..........

84

1.2.3

Effect of low temperature

.

. . .

. .

84

1.2.4

Effect of desiccation

of eggs

. . . .

. . . . . . . . . .

1.2.5

Association

between temperature,

1.2.6

Association

between temperature

1.3

Egg survival in the field

1.3.1

Egg-feeding

1.3.2

Grazing

. . . . . .

81

implications

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . .

. . . . . . . .

. .

. . . ..........

. . . . .

. .

..........

84

. . ..........

85

and the ageing process of eggs . ..........

85

humidity

and egg survival

. . . . . .

. . .

. .

. . .

. . ..........

88

and grazing trials . . . .

. . .

. .

. . .

. . ..........

88

..........

88

trials on the availability

of eggs in different climatic zones

START

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vii

CONTENTS

128

.................

4.3

The influence of climate on vector populations

4.4

The influence of humidity

.........................

131

4.5

Climate and host presence

.........................

133

4.6

Climate and the character

4.7

Epidemiological

References Part V -

.................

of East Coast Fever

calculation

134

..................

and forecasting

135 137

..................................

Weather and arthropod parasites: (2) Other arthropods

Chapter 1 -

...............

141

Weather and arthropod ectoparasites ..........................

B~D.W.TARRY

143

..............................

1.1

Introduction

1.2

The free-living stage

1.2.1

Group (a): Parasites

143

...........................

143

with a free-living adult stage

................

144

1.2.2

Water relations of free-living stages

.....................

145

1.2.3

Group (b): Free-living

.....................

147

1.3

Obligate parasites -

1.3.1

Permanent

Group (c) .......................

ectoparasite

1.3.1.1

The population

1.3.1.2

Sheep-scab

1.3.2

Periodic blood feeders

1.4

Conclusions

Chapter 2 -

insect larvae

.......................

groups

dynamics

147 147

of lice (Mallophaga and Anoplura)

............

mites (Psoroptes ovis) ......................

148 149

..........................

150

..............................

150

The effect of weather on mosquito biology 151

..........................

B~M.W.SERVICE

...............................

151

2.1

Summary

2.2

Weather

2.3

Micrometeorological

2.4

Mosquitoes

2.5

The effect of weather on the immature

2.5.1

Eggs

2.5.2

Larvae and temperature

..........................

154

2.5.3

Larvae and precipitation

.........................

156

2.6

The effect of weather on adult mosquitoes

...................

158

2.6.1

Adults and wind speed and frontal systems

...................

158

2.6.2

Adults and temperature

2.6.3

Adults and precipitation

2.6.4

Adults and barometric

2.6.5

Adults and other weather variables

2.7

General

2.8

Acknowledgements

...........................

and climate

151

........................

factors

..........................

and climate

152

stages of mosquitoes

.............

153 153

.................................

considerations

152

and humidity

.....................

.......................... pressure

....................... ......................

.......................... ...........................

159 160 161 161 162 162

START ... Vlll

INDEX References

Part VI -

CONTENTS

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Theuseandvalueofdata

Chapter 1 -

Meteorological BYL.P.SMITH

Bibliography

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

163

. . .

169

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.

171

. . . .

174

and disease data .

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