Voyages on the Northern Sea Route [1st ed. 2020] 978-3-030-25489-6, 978-3-030-25490-2

Table of contents :
Front Matter ....Pages i-xxxviii
Front Matter ....Pages 1-1
Introductory Information (Tadeusz Pastusiak)....Pages 3-30
Decision Support System for Initial Planning of a Voyage on the NSR (Tadeusz Pastusiak)....Pages 31-46
Front Matter ....Pages 47-47
Dangerous Hydrometeorological Phenomena Occurring on the NSR (Tadeusz Pastusiak)....Pages 49-79
Selected Dangerous Hydrological Phenomena and Voyage Planning (Tadeusz Pastusiak)....Pages 81-106
Front Matter ....Pages 107-107
The Impact of Ice Conditions on Maritime Transport on the NSR (Tadeusz Pastusiak)....Pages 109-160
Front Matter ....Pages 161-161
Routes Along Ice-Free Zone on the NSR for Vessels Without Ice Strengthening (Tadeusz Pastusiak)....Pages 163-189
Dates When Seas Open and Close for Ice-Free Navigation (Tadeusz Pastusiak)....Pages 191-210
Front Matter ....Pages 211-211
Applications of Initial Voyage Planning Decision Support System in the Context of Maritime Transport of the Northern Sea Route (Tadeusz Pastusiak)....Pages 213-223
Operational Voyage Planning and Verification of Initial Voyage Planning (Tadeusz Pastusiak)....Pages 225-256
Summary and Conclusions (Tadeusz Pastusiak)....Pages 257-265
Back Matter ....Pages 267-279

Citation preview

Tadeusz Pastusiak

Voyages on the Northern Sea Route

Voyages on the Northern Sea Route

Tadeusz Pastusiak

Voyages on the Northern Sea Route

123

Tadeusz Pastusiak Faculty of Navigation Gdynia Maritime University Gdynia, Poland

ISBN 978-3-030-25489-6 ISBN 978-3-030-25490-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-25490-2

(eBook)

© Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 This book is an extended and a revised version of PLANNING INDEPENDENT TRANSIT VOYAGES OF VESSEL WITHOUT ICE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NORTHERN SEA ROUTE, published in Polish on August 2018 by WYDAWNICTWO AKADEMII MORSKIEJ W GDYNI. Published with permission. This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Cover illustration: The PANAMAX type vessel after icing on Bering Sea, Photo by Tadeusz Pastusiak This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

The book is dedicated to all researchers, polar explorers, people from the ice reconnaissance, fishermen, seamen and ancient whale and seal hunters, whose hard work and commitment have provided knowledge on navigation in the polar regions.

Preface

The noticeable acceleration of climate in the Arctic in the twenty-first century led to reduction of the area of sea ice and reduction of their thickness. This results in an extension of the navigation season, also for vessels with low ice classes or even without ice reinforcements. The Northern Sea Route shortens distance necessary to pass from European ports to the Far East ports, reduces time of such a voyage and makes it possible to bypass regions of the world threatened by terrorism at sea. The interest in possibility of using this route is large. After the first period of intensive growth of transit transport, import and export transport between the NSR region and European ports, and the Far East was the most advantageous. A significant improvement of ice conditions in the twenty-first century is forecasted, favoring development of seasonal shipping. In summer navigation season, it is possible to navigate on vessels of low ice classes and even vessels that do not have ice reinforcements. And it is precisely the possibility of shipowners becoming less active in the NSR navigation activity up to now, which seems to be particularly interesting. Vessels that are normally used in ice-free areas have steel hulls without ice strengthening. These vessels are relatively cheap in terms of construction and operation costs in relation to vessels with ice classes, and especially polar classes. Seasonal involvement of new owners on the NSR does not require construction of specialized vessels for shipping in ice, but only the use of existing tonnage on the freight market. The regulations of the Russian Maritime Register of Shipping (RMRS) state that vessels with ice classes lower than Arc4 are allowed to navigate only outside the Arctic. On the other hand, the Rules for navigation on the Northern Sea Route provide for possible derogations from the provisions of the RMRS at the discretion of the NSR Administration. This applies to the “ice-free” navigation period. Ship operators should report to the NSR Administration theirs intention to perform a voyage by vessel on the NSR at least three months before the intended date of departure. Forecast of ice navigation conditions on the NSR is not available so much in advance. The ship’s operator must therefore make a decision on the date of the beginning of voyage, risking that their vessel will bear the costs of charter vii

viii

Preface

while awaiting ice conditions allowing for independent navigation or incurring high costs of icebreaker services. In case the start of voyage occurs after the ice-free transit zone has been created along the whole NSR, it is very likely that the vessel will not reach the port of destination before the ice-free zone closes on beginning of autumn. Then, in the most favourable case, the vessel will have to take advantage of the costly services of icebreakers. In both cases, the economic result of voyage is uncertain. Taking above into consideration, the author of the work, who is a long-time captain of sea-going vessels, set himself the goal of developing a method of effective route planning, for decision-makers. It covers the most likely course of routes developed by the author (length of routes) with a certain probability of their repetition in the next summer navigation season and statistical speed of vessels of different ice classes and not having ice reinforcements with ranges of deviations from mean and median values. In this way, one can calculate the expected time of planned route in a pessimistic, balanced and optimistic version. The most important are probability diagrams of opening and closing ice-free zone the transit zone along the whole NSR for the selected day of the year. They are based on historical data from recent years. The voyage simulations performed and presented in the book confirm effectiveness of the method proposed by the author. The author of the book sorted out the available knowledge and points of view on the safe speed of the vessel in the areas where ice occurs, the rules of handling vessel in ice and the importance of knowledge and experience of the captain, helmsmen, deck crew and machine crew in ice for a high proficiency of voyage even in ice conditions seemingly making it impossible to achieve an economic goal of voyage. The dangers to shipping that occur on the NSR were also discussed, ways of avoiding them during the route plotting and how to handle when they are encountered during the voyage. First of all, the book is intended for decision-makers of commercial enterprises for whom it is a dilemma whether to take action towards trade or shipping on the Northern Sea Route, when and what actions should be taken and what range of uncertainty should be included in the initial planning and scheduling of voyage in advance to 1–6 months. Gdynia, Poland

Tadeusz Pastusiak

Acknowledgements

The idea to publish my previous work, i.e. Ph.D. thesis, came out from the reviewers Prof. Jacek A. Jania, President of Committee on Polar Research, Polish Academy of Sciences and Head, Centre for Polar Studies, University of Silesia. Actually, after completing Doctor of Sciences process I wished to make same with monograph that has closed previous stage of my scientific work, after extensive revision, extension and updating of my research works. Restarting my research in the far north after the completion of work on board merchant vessels would not be possible without the help and support of Prof. Piotr Głowacki, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, actually President of Committee on Polar Research, Polish Academy of Sciences, and Prof. Jacek A. Jania, President of Committee on Polar Research, Polish Academy of Sciences, and Head, Centre for Polar Studies, University of Silesia. I extend to them my deepest appreciation for their assistance in the field of research in the Arctic. I want to thank Prof. Dr. Anna Styszyńska, supervisor of my Ph.D. thesis for very good guidance on initial stage of my scientific work. I wish to thank Barbara Jóźwiak for improving the use of English in the manuscript. I extend special personal expression of my gratitude to Prof. Andrzej A. Marsz, Prof. Emeritus, Gdynia Maritime University, for scientific mentoring. The publication of the book would not be possible without the kind permission of the authors and copyright holders: U.S. National Ice Center, IBCAO and Naturalearthdata.com. This book could not have been written and designed without the support and assistance of many people and organizations during the early stage of my scientific work to whom I would like to express my warmest thanks. To all authors and publishers who kindly granted permission to publish illustrations and other materials, I express my sincere gratitude. I would like to thank my parents, Jan and Maria, who believed in me and, in particular, my closest family, Magdalena and Janina for acquiescence for my scientific work and understanding during long time I spent on the book.

ix

Contents

Part I 1

2

........ ........

3 4

........

15

........ ........

16 19

........ ........

21 23

.......... ..........

31 32

Introductory Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 Introduction to Planning of Vessel Voyage in Ice . . . 1.2 Description of Ice Classes and Vessel Capability for Unassisted Navigation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 Administrative Methods to Control Traffic Safety of Vessels in Ice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4 Purpose and Scope of the Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.5 Source Materials and Initial Assumptions Regarding Model Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Decision Support System for Initial Planning of a Voyage on the NSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 Initial Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 General Outline of Initial Voyage Planning Support System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Fragmentary Procedures Within the Decision Support System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 Selected Simulation Models of Transit Voyages on the NSR Developed in the Years 1996–2016 . . 2.5 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Part II 3

Planning a Voyage in Ice

Decision ..........

34

..........

35

.......... .......... ..........

41 43 45

Dangerous Phenomena and Hazards for Navigation

Dangerous Hydrometeorological Phenomena Occurring on the NSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 Hydrometeorological Phenomena Affecting the Safety of Navigation on the NSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

49 51

xi

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Contents

3.2

Description of Hydrometeorological Phenomena Affecting Navigation Safety on the NSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.1 Phenomena Related to Ice Formations . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.2 Phenomena Unrelated to Ice Formations . . . . . . . . 3.3 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4

. . . . .

Selected Dangerous Hydrological Phenomena and Voyage Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 Ice Massifs and the Area of Ice Cover . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.1 Definition of Ice Massifs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.2 Location of Ice Massifs During Winter and Summer Seasons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.3 Statistical Data Regarding Ice Massifs and the Area of Ice Cover During the Navigation Seasons of 1940–1949 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 Extremely Fast Ice Drift . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.1 Ice Rivers and Their Location . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.2 Analysis of an Ice River Phenomenon Recorded at Wrangel Island in 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 Options for Initial Route Planning Based on Long-Term Russian Forecasts of Ice Navigation Conditions on the NSR . 4.4 Types of Ice Conditions and Ice-Free Navigation . . . . . . . . . 4.5 Duration of Ice-Free Navigation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Part III 5

. . . . .

. . . . .

52 52 63 73 75

.. .. ..

81 82 82

..

84

.. .. ..

86 91 91

..

92

. . . . .

. . . . .

. . . . .

96 100 100 101 103

Ice Navigation Conditions

The Impact of Ice Conditions on Maritime Transport on the NSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 Annual Cycles of Changes in Ice Forms and Its Impact on Navigation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 Definition of Openings in Ice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 On-Scene Vessel Movement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.1 Variability in Conditions Determining the Possibility of Passing Through Ice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.2 Vessel’s Capability to Pass Through Ice with Specific Parameters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.3 Criteria for Determining the Beginning of Lighter Ice Conditions, Which Make Navigation Possible for Vessels Without Ice Strengthening . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . 109 . . 110 . . 113 . . 116 . . 122 . . 126

. . 136

Contents

xiii

5.3.4 Criteria for Determining the End of Lighter Ice Conditions, Which Make Navigation Impossible for Vessels Without Ice Strengthening . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.5 Human Role in Making Decisions and Guiding and Vessel Through Ice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 Capability to Pass Through Ice and Vessel Speed During the First Commercial Transit Voyage in 1940 . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 Vessel Speed on the NSR on the Basis of Vessel Reports Produced in the Years 2012–2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5.1 Geographical Distribution of Vessel Traffic in 2016 . 5.5.2 Speed of Vessels Without Ice Strengthening According to Region and Decade of the 2016 Navigation Season . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5.3 Statistical Analysis of Vessel Speed Regarding Vessels with Various Ice Classes Conducting Voyages on the NSR in the Years 2012–2013 . . . . . 5.5.4 Statistical Analysis of Vessel Speed Regarding Vessels Without Ice Strengthening Conducting Voyages on the NSR Independently or with Icebreaker Assistance in 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5.5 Relationships Between Vessel Speed and Distance from the Edge of Ice of a Given Concentration . . . . 5.6 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Part IV 6

. . . 137 . . . 138 . . . 139 . . . 144 . . . 144

. . . 147

. . . 151

. . . 151 . . . 152 . . . 154 . . . 155

Scheduling of Voyage Routes

Routes Along Ice-Free Zone on the NSR for Vessels Without Ice Strengthening . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 Geographical Distribution and Length of Routes . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.1 Study Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.2 Seas Opening for Transit Navigation from West to East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.3 Seas Opening for Transit Navigation from East to West . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.4 Seas Closing for Transit Navigation from West to East . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.5 Seas Closing for Transit Navigation from East to West . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 Width of the Ice-Free Zone in the Peak of the Navigation Season in the Years 2008–2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . 163 . . 164 . . 164 . . 166 . . 170 . . 175 . . 178 . . 182

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Contents

6.3

Length of Routes Along Which Seas Open and Close for Navigation, Including Special Cases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185 6.4 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 187 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 188

7

Dates When Seas Open and Close for Ice-Free Navigation . . . . . 7.1 Study Method . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 Dates When Western and Eastern Regions Open and Close for Vessels with Small Draft and the Duration of the Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 Dates When Western and Eastern Regions Open and Close for Vessels with Deeper Draft and the Duration of the Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4 Average Dates of the Period When Western and Eastern Parts of the NSR Are Open for Ice-Free Navigation, Taking into Account the Minimum Navigable Depth Limit of 14.5 m . . . 7.5 Statistical Data Regarding the First and Final Days of the Period When an Ice-Free Transit Zone Exists . . . . . . . 7.6 Statistical Data Relating to the Number of Ice-Free Navigation Days . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.7 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Part V 8

9

. . 191 . . 192

. . 193

. . 198

. . 202 . . 203 . . 205 . . 207 . . 209

Models of Decision Support Systems

Applications of Initial Voyage Planning Decision Support System in the Context of Maritime Transport of the Northern Sea Route . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1 Main Variables in the Decision Support System . . . . . . . 8.2 Application of Long-Term Russian Forecasts of Ice Navigation Conditions for Initial Voyage Planning 8.3 Navigational and Economic Results of Different Variants of Initial Voyage Planning for a PANAMAX-Type Vessel in 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . 213 . . . . . 214 . . . . . 215

. . . . . 217 . . . . . 221 . . . . . 222

Operational Voyage Planning and Verification of Initial Voyage Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 General Outline of Operational Voyage Planning Decision Support System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 Fragmentary Procedures Within the Operational Voyage Planning Decision Support System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 Rules of the Experiment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . . . 225 . . . . 227 . . . . 227 . . . . 230

Contents

Operational Planning Simulation Based on Long-Term Forecasts Published on the NSR Administration Website . . . 9.5 Operational Voyage Planning Simulation Based on a Statistical Forecast of the NSR Opening Before a Given Day of the Year with 50% Probability . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 Operational Voyage Planning Simulation Based on a Statistical Average Opening Date Delayed by the Value of Standard Deviation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.7 Operational Voyage Planning Simulation Based on Polynomial Approximation Diagrams of the NSR Opening Before a Given Day of the Year with 68.3% Probability of It Being the Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.8 Operational Voyage Planning Simulation Based on Polynomial Approximation Diagrams of the NSR Opening Before a Given Day of the Year with 71.5% Probability of It Being the Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.9 Uncertainties and Errors Associated with Factors Taken into Account When Planning and Scheduling a Voyage on the NSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.10 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

xv

9.4

. . 232

. . 235

. . 237

. . 238

. . 242

. . 249 . . 254 . . 256

10 Summary and Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 Appendix A . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267 Appendix B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269 Appendix C . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 277

Acronyms

AARI ABS AIRSS AIS AMSA APE ARCOP BSH CATZOC CCCP CCG CERSAT CHNL CIA CIS CNIIMF

CRmin CRmax CRREL CT DNV DSA DWT ECDIS ECS ENFOTEC

Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute American Bureau of Shipping Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System Automatic Identification System Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Association of Polar Explorers Arctic Operational Platform Bundesamts fur Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie Category Zone of Confidence Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (Coюз Coвeтcкиx Coциaлиcтичecкиx Pecпyблик) Canadian Coast Guard Centre ERS d’Archivage et de Traitement—French ERS Processing and Archiving Facility Centre for High North Logistics Central Intelligence Agency Canadian Ice Service Central Marine Research and Design Institute (Цeнтpaльный нayчнo-иccлeдoвaтeльcкий и пpoeктнo-кoнcтpyктopcкий инcтитyт мopcкoгo флoтa) The lowest critical revolutions of engine The highest critical revolutions of engine Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory Concentration Total Det Norske Veritas Engine telegraph position—Dead Slow Ahead Deadweight Electronic Chart Display and Information System Electronic Chart System Enfotec Technical Services Inc.

xvii

xviii

ESIMO ESRI FMS FSS GIS GL GPS GRF GUNiO HA HON IAMSAR IBCAO IFO IHO IMO INSROP IRIDIUM ISM KISS KMZ L1 (LU1) L2 (LU2) MAN MANICE MCA MFOC MIZ MMAB MMM MSK MTR NATICE NCEP NEP NGIA NHS NIC

Acronyms

ECИMO (Eдинaя Cиcтeмa Инфopмaции oб oбcтaнoвкe в Mиpoвoм Oкeaнe) Environmental Systems Research Institute Engine telegraph position—Full Manoeuvering Speed (revolutions of engine during manoeuvers) Engine telegraph position—Full Sea Speed (revolutions of engine at sea) Geographical information systems Germanischer Lloyd Global positioning system Government of Russian Federation (ГУHиO) Глaвнoe Упpaвлeниe Haвигaции и Oкeaнoгpaфии (General Directorate of Navigation and Oceanography) Engine telegraph position—Half Ahead Hydrographer of the Navy International Aeronautical and Maritime Search and Rescue International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean Intermediate fuel oil International Hydrographic Organization International Maritime Organization International Northern Sea Route Programme Iridium Communications Inc. International Safety Management Code Keep It Short and Simple Zipped KML (Keyhole Markup Language) files лeдoвoe ycилeниe клacca Л1 (ЛУ1) (ice strengthening of hull class L1) лeдoвoe ycилeниe клacca Л2 (ЛУ2) (ice strengthening of hull class L2) Maschinenfabrik Augsburg-Nürnberg MANUAL of ICE (Manual of Standard Procedures for Observing and Reporting Ice Conditions) Maritime and Coastguard Agency Minister of Fisheries, Oceans, and the Canadian Coast Guard Marginal Ice Zone Marine Modelling and Analysis Branch Minister of Merchant Marine Moscow Time Ministry of Transport of Russia National Ice Center (Naval Ice Center) in USA National Centers for Environmental Prediction Northeast Passage National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency Norwegian Hydrographic Service National Ice Center

Acronyms

NOAA NRC NSIDC NSR NWP OCIMF PANAMAX POLARIS PRS PSU RCP RMRS Rosgidromet RPM SA SCF SL SMS UKHO UL ULA UNiO USNHO UTC TC VCIOM WMO

xix

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Research Council National Snow and Ice Data Center Northern Sea Route Northwest Passage Oil Companies International Marine Forum Vessel with the Maximum Overall Dimensions Enabling Passage Through the Panama Canal Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System Polski Rejestr Statków (Polish Register of Ships) Practical Salinity Unit Representative Concentration Pathways Russian Maritime Register of Shipping Russian Federal Hydrometeorological Service (Roshydromet) Revolutions per minute Engine telegraph position—Slow Ahead SCF Group companies Steerability limit Safety Management System UK Hydrographic Office ycилeниe лeдoвыe клacca УЛ (ice strengthening of hull class UL) ycилeниe лeдoвыe клacca УЛA (ice strengthening of hull class ULA) (УHиO) Упpaвлeниe Haвигaции и Oкeaнoгpaфии (Directorate of Navigation and Oceanography) US Navy Hydrographic Office Universal Time Clock Transport Canada Russian Public Opinion Research Centre (Bcepoccийcкий цeнтp изyчeния oбщecтвeннoгo мнeния) World Meteorological Organization

Symbols and Marks

a b c cs cm Cn Cp D DDD Dc Di DNSR DZ

E ENE ESE F Fu g gm i IM IN Ji k km

Coefficient Coefficient Coefficient Coefficient of susceptibility of ice to breaking Centimetre (measure of length, thickness, distance) Partial concentration Daily vessel charter rate [USD/day] Displacement of vessel Number of day of the year according to Julian calendar Total length of route variant for route segments from 1 to n Length of route segment i from within the range of 1 to n Distance between the two most distant ports of the NSR (calculated along the most probable route) [NM] Distance between potential navigational obstacle requiring a vessel to turn back and proceed towards the nearest supply port on the NSR [NM] East East North East East South East Value of the Fisher–Snedecor test Impact of piece of ice/ice floe on hull of vessel Acceleration of gravity force Sea-level gradient [cm/NM] Iteration number Ice Multiplier Ice Numeral Daily fuel consumption determined by vessel speed on route segment i [ton/day] Correction coefficient for additional fuel consumption in ice-covered areas Kilometre (distance measure) xxi

xxii

Symbols and Marks

kW KL KC

Kilowatt (measure of the propulsion engine’s power) Coefficient of vessel ability to overcome ice Vessel charter cost for the period necessary to complete selected Voyage variant [USD] Cost of fuel necessary to complete selected voyage variant [USD] Total voyage cost [USD] Length of ice river bed [NM] Metre (measure of length, distance, height, thickness, depth) Nautical mile (distance measure) Metre per second (measure of speed) Number North East North North East North North West North West Probability Probability of route variant being available for ice-free navigation, taking into account geographical course of route variant [%] Probability of route variant being available for ice-free navigation, taking into account ice-free transit corridor formation date [%] Probability of route variant being available for ice-free navigation, taking into account geographical course of route variant and ice-free transit zone formation date [%] Probability of route segment i being available for ice-free navigation [%] Power of propelling engine Expected total fuel consumption [t] Amount of fuel necessary for safe voyage completion, taking into account consumable resources reserve coefficient [t] Weight of piece of ice/ice floe Risk Index Outcome Risk Index Value Revolutions of vessel propeller [rotations per minute] Coefficient of determination Corrected coefficient of determination Second (measure of time) South South East South South East South South West South West Ton (measure of weight); tonne-force Time Total duration of voyage variant [days] Voyage duration for route segment i from within the range of 1 to n

KF KT LK m NM m/s n NE NNE NNW NW P PA PB PC

Pi Pm PF PRR q RIO RIV RPM R2 R2sk s S SE SSE SSW SW t T Tc Ti

Symbols and Marks

tmin

USD kt W WSW WRR V Vd Vi Vle Vmax Vmin Vmed Vav YYYY ZA ZB °C a r

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Extra time margin, provided by the minimum amount of supplies, within which a vessel must call at a port; the assumed value is 5 days or 96 h [hours] US dollar (price measure) Knot (speed measure) West West South West Consumable resources reserve coefficient, assuming standard operational speed on the NSR for vessels without ice strengthening Speed of vessel [knots] Speed of ice in ice river bed [cm/s] Vessel speed on route segment i from within the range of 1 to n Statistical operational speed on the NSR Maximal speed of vessel Minimal speed of vessel Median speed of vessel Average speed of vessel Number of the year Event in which an ice-free transit zone forms on the NSR, taking into account geographical course of route variant Event in which an ice-free transit zone forms on the NSR, taking into account date on the Julian calendar Celsius degree (measure of temperature) The course angle of impact of ice mass measured from the bow Standard deviation

List of Figures

Fig. 1.1

Fig. 1.2

Fig. 2.1 Fig. 2.2

Maritime transport routes on Arctic Ocean; ▬●▬ Northwest Passage; Northeast Passage and Northern Sea Route: transarctic route, ─ ─ ─ transit route, ─── intermediate route, coastal route 1—Barents Sea, 2—Kara Sea, 3—Laptev Sea, 4—East Siberian Sea, 5—Chukchi Sea, 6—Bering Sea, 7—Norwegian Sea, 8—Greenland Sea, 9—Davis Strait, 10—Baffin Bay, 11—Canadian Archipelago, 12—Lincoln Sea, 13—Beaufort Sea. Compiled by the author based on Free vector and raster map data@ natural-earthdata.com and Jakobsson et al. (2012) . . . . . . . . . . . Northern Sea Route cargo volumes in 1920–2017: volume of transit cargo, volume of cargo transported inside the NSR and cargo imported to the NSR region and exported from the NSR region. Compiled by the author based on Didenko and Cherenkov (2018), CHNL (2018a, b, c, d, e), Kiiski (2017), Belkin (2017), Polovinkin and Fomichev (2014), Gunnarsson (2014), Bambulyak et al. (2012), Balmasov (2011a, b, 2012), Mahoney et al. (2008), Selin and Istomin (2003), Ragner (2000), Sodhi (1995), Armstrong (1952). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . General outline of initial voyage planning decision support system; decision support module . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Operation parameters of PANAMAX-type vessel. Loading conditions of vessel and hydrometeorological conditions: ballast condition, good weather conditions, loaded condition, good weather conditions, ballast condition, bad weather conditions, loaded condition, bad weather conditions. Revolutions of propulsing engine (RPM): SL—Steerability Limit, DSA—Dead Slow Ahead, SA—Slow Ahead, HA—Half Ahead, FMS—Full

5

8 34

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Fig. 3.1

Fig. 3.2

Fig. 4.1

Fig. 4.2

List of Figures

Manoeuvring Speed, FSS—Full Sea Speed, CRmin—Minimal Limit of Critical Revolutions, CRmax—Maximal Limit of Critical Revolutions. Compiled by the author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Vessel Malla short towed by means of stern notch by Finnish icebreaker Karhu in 1964 on Baltic Sea; a—stern notch, b—vessel in the channel in ice. Snapshots from 8 mm movie film made by Capt. Jan Pastusiak, father of the author . . . . . Icing of small vessel. a—steam ship Wrocław in 1951 iced after stormy weather on Baltic Sea at minus 14 °C; a—vessel in port after icing, b—crew with mallets ready to commence de-icing of vessel on Baltic Sea at minus 12 °C in 1953. Photographs made by Capt. Jan Pastusiak, father of the author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . General distribution of ice formation in winter season in the Arctic; edges of ice formations: massifs of multiyear ice from Center of Arctic Ocean; massifs of fast ice origin, massifs originating from local drifting ice. Massifs originating from fast ice: 1—Severnaya Zemlya, 2—Yana, 3—New Siberian; massifs originating from local drifting ice: 4—Novaya Zemlya, 5—Wrangel, 18—Anadyr; massifs being parts of multiyear ice from centre of Arctic Ocean: 6—Canadian, 7—Siberian, 8—Spitsbergen, 9—Northern Kara, 10—Taymyr, 11—Ayon, 12—Northern Chukotka Glade, 13—Alaskan, 14—Northern Canada, 15—Baffin, 16—Northern Greenland, 17—East Greenland. Compiled by the author based on Baskin et al. (1998), Brude et al. (1998), Smirnov (1989), Kitagawa (2001), Dobrovolsky and Zalogin (1982), GUNiO (1996), Mulherin (1996) and Natural Earth (2017), http://www.naturalearthdata.com . . General distribution of ice formation in summer season in the Arctic; edges of ice formations: massifs of multiyear ice from centre of Arctic Ocean, massifs of fast ice origin, massifs originating from local drifting ice. Massifs originating from fast ice: 1—Severnaya Zemlya, 2—Yana, 3—New Siberian; massifs originating from local drifting ice: 4—Novaya Zemlya, 5—Wrangel; Massifs being parts of multiyear ice from centre of Arctic Ocean: 6—Canadian, 7—Siberian, 8—Spitsbergen, 9—Northern Kara, 10—Taymyr, 11—Ayon, 12—Northern Chukotka Glade, 13—Alaskan, 14—Northern Canada, 15—Baffin, 16—Northern Greenland, 17—East Greenland. Compiled by the author based on Zakrzewski (1983), Brude et al. (1998),

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List of Figures

Fig. 4.3

Fig. 4.4

Ragner (2000), Smirnov (1989), Kitagawa (2001), ESIMO (2011, 2018d), GUNiO (1996) and Natural Earth (2017), http://www.naturalearthdata.com . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Relative area of ice massifs on the NSR in decades of days corresponding to the next stages of the ship’s voyage in 1940; 1—14–20 August at Novaya Zemlya Ice Massif in the south-western part of Kara Sea, 2—22–25 August at Novaya Zemlya Ice Massif in the north-eastern part of Kara Sea, 3—26 August at Taymyr Ice Massif in the western part of Laptev Sea, 4—28 August at Yana Ice Massif in the eastern part of Laptev Sea, 5—28–30 August at New Siberian Ice Massif in the western part of East Siberian Sea, 6—30–31 August in Ayon Ice Massif in the eastern part of East Siberian Sea, 7—1–4 September at Wrangel Ice Massif in the SW part of Chukchi Sea; average area of ice massifs in 1940, maximal area of ice massifs in 1940–1949 (pessimistic approach), average area of ice massifs in 1940–1949 increased by standard deviation r, average area of ice massifs in 1940–1949 (realistic approach), average area of ice massifs in 1940–1949 diminished by standard deviation r, minimal area of ice massifs in 1940–1949 (optimistic approach). Compiled by the author based on AARI (2014, 2015) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Relative area of ice coverage on the NSR in decades of days corresponding to the next stages of the ship’s voyage in 1940; 1—14–20 August at Novaya Zemlya Ice Massif in the south-western part of Kara Sea, 2—22–25 August at Novaya Zemlya Ice Massif in the north-eastern part of Kara Sea, 3—26 August at Taymyr Ice Massif in the western part of Laptev Sea, 4—28 August at Yana Ice Massif in the eastern part of Laptev Sea, 5—28–30 August at New Siberian Ice Massif in the western part of od East Siberian Sea, 6—30–31 August in Ayon Ice Massif in the eastern part of East Siberian Sea, 7—1–4 September at Wrangel Ice Massif in the SW part of Chukchi Sea; average area of ice coverage in 1940, maximal area of ice coverage in 1940–1949 (pessimistic approach), average area of ice coverage in 1940–1949 increased by standard deviation r, average area of ice coverage in 1940–1949 (realistic approach), average area of ice coverage in 1940–1949 diminished by standard deviation r, minimal area of ice coverage in 1940–1949 (optimistic approach). Compiled by the author based on AARI (2014, 2015) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Fig. 4.5

Fig. 4.6

Fig. 4.7

Fig. 5.1

Fig. 5.2

Fig. 5.3

Fig. 5.4

List of Figures

Known locations of the ice river phenomenon. Compiled by the author based on Benzeman (2010), Benzeman et al. (2004), Mironov et al. (2010), Marchenko (2012) and Natural Earth (2017), http://www.naturalearthdata.com . . . . . . . . . . . . Hydrometeorological phenomena change with time during intense drift ice field at the Wrangel Island in March 2012. Compiled by the author based on AARI (http://ocean8x.aari. nw.ru) and CERSAT (http://cersat.ifremer.fr) . . . . . . . . . . . . . Changes of the time-space distribution of the field of intense ice drift at Wrangel Island in March 2012; coastline edge of fast ice; edges of field of intensive ice drift: day 1, day 2, day 3, day 4, day 5; approximate direction of the most intense ice drift; direction north. Compiled by the author. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Engine telegraph “Slow Ahead” when Polish vessel Marynarz Migała following Finnish icebreaker Karhu in convoy on Baltic Sea in 1964; a vessel following icebreaker in canal, b captain at engine telegraph on the bridge, c vessels in convoy. From 8 mm movie film made by Capt. Jan Pastusiak, father of the author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Route of transit voyage completed successfully in 1940 and locations of icebreakers on-duty; massifs of multiyear ice originating from Arctic Ocean, remnants of massifs originating from fast ice, massifs originating from local drifting ice. Massifs of fast ice origin: 1—Severnaya Zemlya, 2—Yana, 3—New Siberian; Massifs of local drifting ice origin: 4—Novaya Zemlya, 5—Wrangel, Massifs of multiyear ice originating from Arctic Ocean: 6—Canadian, 7—Siberian, 8—Spitsbergen, 9—Northern Kara, 10—Taymyr, 11—Ayon, 12—Northern Chukotka Glade, 13—Alaskan; route of the ship in 1940 completed successfully in one summer navigation season; Location of icebreakers on duty: IB 1—“Lenin”, IB 2—“Stalin”, IB 3—“Malygin”, IB 4—“Lazar Kaganovich”. Compiled by the author based on Brennecke (2001), Eyssen (2002), Brude et al. (1998), Ragner (2000), Smirnov (1989), Kitagawa (2001), ESIMO (2011, 2018d), GUNiO (1996) and Natural Earth (2017) http://www. naturalearthdata.com. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Generalized decision-making support diagram of safety of average–high ice class vessel in ice. Compiled by the author (Pastusiak 2018a) based on Brennecke (2001), Eyssen (2002), AARI (2014, 2015) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Generalized decision-making support diagram of speed of average–high ice class vessel in ice. Compiled by the Author (Pastusiak 2018a) based on Brennecke (2001), Eyssen (2002), AARI (2014, 2015) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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List of Figures

Fig. 5.5

Fig. 5.6

Fig. 5.7

Fig. 5.8

Extent of ice cover and vessels traffic on the NSR in navigation season 2016. a First day of analysed vessels traffic (240. day of the year); b day od the easiest ice conditions (270.–277. days of the year); c day, when recorded last position report from vessel without ice strengthening leaving the NSR (308. day of the year); positions reported by vessels, recommended routes, boundary of ice (18% concentration of ice). Compiled by the author based on ice maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and Natural Earth (2017), http://www.naturalearthdata. com, Pastusiak (2016i), http://nsra.ru/ru/grafik_dvijeniya_po_ smp/ (Accessed 05.05.2017) and http://nsra.ru/ru/ razresheniya/2016/ (Accessed 05.05.2017) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Speed of vessels without ice strengthening on the particular NSR seas in summer navigation season 2016; 1—Barents Sea, 2—SW Kara Sea, 3—NE Kara Sea, 4—W Laptev Sea, 5—E Laptev Sea, 6—W East Siberian Sea, 7—E East Siberian Sea, 8—W Chukchi Sea, 9—Bering Sea; the lowest observed speed, average speed reduced by standard deviation, average speed, average speed increased by standard deviation, the highest observed speed, trend line of average speed. Compiled by the author based on http://nsra.ru/ru/grafik_dvijeniya_po_smp/ (Accessed 05.05.2017) and http://nsra.ru/ru/razresheniya/ 2016/ (Accessed 05.05.2017) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Speed of vessels without ice strengthening in particular decades of days in navigation season 2016 on the NSR; 1—11-20.08.2016, 2—21-31.08.2016, 3—01-10.09.2016, 4—11-20.09.2016, 5—21-30.09.2016, 6—01-10.2016, 7—11-20.10.2016, 8—21-31.10.2016; the lowest observed speed, average speed reduced by standard deviation, average speed, average speed increased by standard deviation, the highest observed speed, median of the speed. Compiled by the author based on http://nsra.ru/ru/grafik_dvijeniya_po_smp/ (Accessed 05. 05.2017) and http://nsra.ru/ru/razresheniya/2016/ (Accessed 05.05.2017) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Speed of vessels without ice strengthening on the NSR in the function of distance from ice edge: a distance from the edge of “clean water” (ice concentration 18%), b distance from boundary of concentration 81%; sample of singe vessel trend line of average speed of vessel approximated with polynomial function of second degree. Compiled by the

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Fig. 6.1

Fig. 6.2

Fig. 6.3

Fig. 6.4

Fig. 6.5

Fig. 6.6

List of Figures

author based on ice maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and Natural Earth (2017), http://www. naturalearthdata.com, http://nsra.ru/ru/grafik_dvijeniya_po_ smp/ (Accessed 05.05.2017) and http://nsra.ru/ru/ razresheniya/2016/ (Accessed 05.05.2017) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Routes of opening the NSR seas in easterly direction in years 2008–2018; a for vessels of very small draft and b for vessels that require minimal depth 14.5 m. Compiled by the author based on ice maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and Natural Earth (2017), http://www. naturalearthdata.com. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Length of the routes during opening the NSR seas in easterly direction in years 2008–2018; a for particular regions and b average for the whole NSR. Compiled by the author . . . . . Suggested routes for vessels without ice strengthening that include information on probability of occurrence of ice-free zone in the next year, for opening the NSR seas in easterly direction and minimal depth 14.5 m. Probability of the route: 11/11, 10/11, 9/11, 8/11, 7/11, 6/11, 5/11, 4/11, - 3/11, 2/11, 1/11. Compiled by the author based on ice maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and Natural Earth (2017), http://www.naturalearthdata.com . . . . . Routes of opening the NSR seas in westerly direction in years 2008–2018; a for vessels of very small draft and b for vessels that require minimal depth 14.5 m. Compiled by the author based on ice maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and Natural Earth (2017), http://www.naturalearthdata. com . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Length of the routes during opening the NSR seas in westerly direction in years 2008–2018; a for particular regions and b average for the whole NSR. Compiled by the author . . . . . Suggested routes for vessels without ice strengthening that include information on probability of occurrence of ice-free zone in the next year, for opening the NSR seas in westerly direction and minimal depth 14.5 m. Probability of the route: 11/11, 10/11, 9/11, 8/11, 7/11, 6/11, 5/11, 4/11, - 3/11, -

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List of Figures

Fig. 6.7

Fig. 6.8

Fig. 6.9

Fig. 6.10

Fig. 6.11

Fig. 6.12

2/11, 1/11. Compiled by the author based on ice maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and Natural Earth (2017), http://www. naturalearthdata.com. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Routes of closing the NSR seas in easterly direction in years 2008–2018; a for vessels of very small draft and b for vessels that require minimal depth 14.5 m. Compiled by the author based on ice maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and Natural Earth (2017), http://www. naturalearthdata.com. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Length of the routes during closing the NSR seas in easterly direction in years 2008–2018; a for particular regions and b average for the whole NSR. Compiled by the author . . . . . Suggested routes for vessels without ice strengthening that include information on probability of occurrence of ice-free zone in the next year, for closing the NSR seas in easterly direction and minimal depth 14.5 m. Probability of the route: 11/11, 10/11, 9/11, 8/11, 7/11, 6/11, 5/11, 4/11, - 3/11, 2/11, 1/11. Compiled by the author based on ice maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and Natural Earth (2017), http://www. naturalearthdata.com. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Routes of closing the NSR seas in westerly direction in years 2008–2018; a for vessels of very small draft and b for vessels that require minimal depth 14.5 m. Compiled by the author based on ice maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and Natural Earth (2017), http://www. naturalearthdata.com. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Length of the routes during closing the NSR seas in westerly direction in years 2008–2018; a for particular regions and b average for the whole NSR. Compiled by the author . . . . . Suggested routes for vessels without ice strengthening that include information on probability of occurrence of ice-free zone in next year, for closing the NSR seas in westerly direction and minimal depth 14.5 m. Probability of the route: 11/11, 10/11, 9/11, 8/11, 7/11, 6/11, 5/11, 4/11, - 3/11, 2/11, 1/11. Compiled by the author based on ice

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Fig. 6.13

Fig. 7.1

Fig. 7.2

Fig. 7.3

Fig. 7.4

Fig. 7.5

List of Figures

maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and Natural Earth (2017), http://www.naturalearthdata.com . . . . . . . Probability of occurrence of ice-free water during the peak of summer navigation season: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7—numbers of reference lines. Compiled by the author based on ice maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and Natural Earth (2017), http://www.naturalearthdata.com . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Dates of opening and closing of the Laptev and Kara seas for vessels with small draft in years 2008–2018. Compiled by the author. Made with ice maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and with Natural Earth (2017), free vector and raster map data @ http://www.naturalearthdata.com . . . . . . Dates of opening and closing of the Chukchi and East Siberian seas for vessels with small draft in years 2008–2018. Compiled by the author. Made with ice maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and with Natural Earth (2017), free vector and raster map data @ http://www. naturalearthdata.com. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Opening and closing times of the Laptev and Kara seas for vessels with small draft in years 2008–2018. Compiled by the author. Made with ice maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and with Natural Earth (2017), free vector and raster map data @ http://www.naturalearthdata.com . . . . . . Opening and closing times of the Chukchi and East Siberian seas for vessels with small draft in years 2008–2018. Compiled by the author. Made with ice maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and with Natural Earth (2017), free vector and raster map data @ http://www. naturalearthdata.com. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Probability that ice-free transit zone through the particular parts of the NSR will be open and not closed till the assumed day of the year, for vessels that require not less than 14.5 m depth; ▬ ▬ ▬ western part of the NSR to be opened, ▬▬▬ western part of the NSR to be not closed, ▬ ▬ ▬ eastern part of the NSR to be opened, ▬▬▬ eastern part of the NSR to be not closed. Compiled by the author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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204

List of Figures

Fig. 7.6

Fig. 8.1

Fig. 8.2

Fig. 8.3

Fig. 9.1

Fig. 9.2

Number of days of occurrence of the ice-free zone along the whole NSR, for vessels that require no smaller depth of the sea than 14.5 m, at assumed probability in 2008–2016; ▬▬▬ approximation by second-degree polynomial function, • historical data. Compiled by the author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Network of suggested routes (black colour) and selected variant of route towards East (blue colour). Compiled by the author based on ice maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and Natural Earth (2017), http://www. naturalearthdata.com. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Network of suggested routes (black colour) and selected variant of route towards West (blue colour). Compiled by the author based on ice maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and Natural Earth (2017), http://www. naturalearthdata.com. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Most probable course of the route towards the east and the first transit route of the ship Komet from West to East in 1940; route of ship in 1940, most probable suggested route. Massifs originating from fast ice: 1—Severnaya Zemlya, 2—Yana, 3—New Siberian; Massifs originating from local drifting ice: 4—Novaya Zemlya, 5—Wrangel; massifs being parts of multiyear ice from centre of Arctic Ocean: 6—Canadian, 7—Siberian, 8—Spitsbergen, 9—Northern Kara, 10—Taymyr, 11—Ayon, 12—Northern Chukotka Glade, 13—Alaskan. Compiled by the author based on Smirnov (1989), Kitagawa (2001), Brude et al. (1998), Ragner (2000), ESIMO (2011, 2018d), GUNiO (1996), Brennecke (2001), Eyssen (2002), NATICE (2019), Natural Earth (2017), http://www.naturalearthdata.com . . . . . General outline of on-scene route planning decision support system; decision support module. Compiled by the author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Courses of routes on basis of initial and operational voyage planning according to variant 1; a first part of voyage from West to East, b second part of voyage from East to West, any variant of suggested routes, most probable variant of suggested routes appointed during initial voyage planning, route appointed during operational voyage planning for variant number 1. Probability of the route: 11/11, 10/11, 9/11, 8/11, 7/11, 6/11, 5/11, 4/11, - 3/11, - 2/11, 1/11. Compiled by the author based on ice maps of

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Fig. 9.3

Fig. 9.4

Fig. 9.5

List of Figures

Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and Natural Earth (2017), http://www.naturalearthdata.com . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Courses of routes on basis of initial and operational voyage planning according to variant 2; a first part of voyage from West to East, b second part of voyage from East to West, any variant of suggested routes, most probable variant of suggested routes appointed during initial voyage planning, route appointed during operational voyage planning for variant number 2. Probability of the route: 11/11, 10/11, 9/11, 8/11, 7/11, 6/11, 5/11, 4/11, - 3/11, - 2/11, 1/11. Compiled by the author based on ice maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and Natural Earth (2017), http://www.naturalearthdata.com . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Courses of routes on basis of initial and operational voyage planning according to variant 4; a first part of voyage from West to East, b second part of voyage from East to West, any variant of suggested routes, most probable variant of suggested routes appointed during initial voyage planning, route appointed during operational voyage planning for variant number 4. Probability of the route: 11/11, 10/11, 9/11, 8/11, 7/11, 6/11, 5/11, 4/11, - 3/11, - 2/11, 1/11. Compiled by the author based on ice maps of Marginal Ice Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and Natural Earth (2017), http://www.naturalearthdata.com . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Courses of routes on basis of initial and operational voyage planning according to variant 5; a first part of voyage from West to East, b second part of voyage from East to West, any variant of suggested routes, most probable variant of suggested routes appointed during initial voyage planning, route appointed during operational voyage planning to East, route appointed during operational voyage planning from place where ice barrier was encountered to West with icebreaker assistance, route of voyage appointed during operational voyage planning from place where ice barrier was encountered back to port of Provideniya. Probability of the route: 11/11, 10/11, 9/11, 8/11, 7/11, 6/11, 5/11, 4/11, - 3/11, - 2/11, 1/11. Compiled by the author based on ice maps of Marginal Ice

233

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List of Figures

Fig. 9.6 Fig. 9.7

Zone in ESRI Shape format (NATICE 2019), provided courtesy of the U.S. National Ice Center and Natural Earth (2017), http://www.naturalearthdata.com . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Planning procedures and decision support criteria including elements of uncertainty—Stage 1. Compiled by the author . . . . Planning procedures and decision support criteria including elements of uncertainty—Stage 2. Compiled by the author . . . .

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List of Tables

Table 3.1

Table 3.2 Table 3.3

Table 3.4 Table 4.1 Table 5.1 Table 5.2 Table 5.3

Table 5.4 Table 5.5 Table 6.1 Table 6.2 Table 6.3 Table 6.4

Dependence of the type of time of beginning of the NSR region freezing from minimal relative ice-covered surface of this region in the summer season and the following temperature of the air . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Average number of days with fog in following months in selected points of the NSR in 1936–1987 . . . . . . . . . . . . . Probability of occurrence of slow, fast and very fast icing of vessel in various narrow passages on the NSR in September and October (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Range of tides along the coast of the NSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Criteria for determining the type of ice navigation conditions on the NSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Vertical and horizontal dimensions of ice floe that could cause damage to vessel’s hull at specified speed of vessel . . . . . . . Vessel speed in ice based on empirical observations . . . . . . . Comparison of minimum (Vmin), average (Vav), maximum (Vmax) and the medians (Vmed) of the speed of vessels in knots on individual sections of the NSR, realizing voyage in 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Speed of vessels of various ice/polar classes on the NSR in 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Speed of vessels without ice strengthening on the NSR in 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Statistics of the length of routes during the NSR seas opening towards the east. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Statistics of the length of routes during the NSR seas opening towards the west . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Statistics of the length of routes during the NSR seas closing towards the east. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Statistics of the length of routes during the NSR seas closing towards the west . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

..

62

..

66

.. ..

70 72

..

100

.. ..

120 130

..

149

..

151

..

152

..

169

..

173

..

177

..

181 xxxvii

xxxviii

Table 6.5

Table 6.6 Table 7.1 Table 7.2 Table 7.3

Table 7.4 Table 7.5

Table 8.1 Table 8.2 Table 9.1 Table 9.2 Table 9.3 Table 9.4

Table 9.5 Table 9.6

List of Tables

Largest distance of ice edge in particular navigation seasons along selected reference lines from continental coastline: red colour—heavy ice conditions, yellow colour—medium ice conditions, green colour—light ice conditions, 1—the smallest distance to continental coastline. Compiled by the author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Lengths of routes leading through the NSR and their statistical data (the italics concern noticeably long routes) . . Statistics dates of opening and closing of the NSR seas for vessels with a small draft in years 2008–2018. . . . . . . . . Statistics of opening and closing of the NSR seas for vessels with a small draft in years 2008–2018. . . . . . . . . Statistics dates of opening and closing the NSR seas after taking into account limit depths of 14.5 m in years 2008–2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Statistics of opening and closing of the NSR seas after taking into account limit depths of 14.5 m in years 2008–2018. . . . Statistics of average opening dates of western and eastern parts of the NSR for ice-free navigation, taking into account limit depths of 14.5 m in years 2008–2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Information related to beginning of growth of ice cover in selected seas of the NSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Statistics of three variants of voyage route “there and back” on the first route towards the east . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Economical results of simulated voyage according to variant 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Economical results of simulated voyage according to variant 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Economical results of simulated voyage according to variant 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Economical results of simulated voyage according to route variant 5 that required return back to intermediate port at Provideniya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Economical results of two variants of second part of route variant 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Economical results of simulated voyage according to route variant 5 from ice barrier to West with assistance of icebreakers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

..

183

..

186

..

198

..

199

..

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201

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216

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Part I

Planning a Voyage in Ice

Chapter 1

Introductory Information

Abstract This chapter introduces the reader to the issues of transport routes. Shipping routes connecting ports located in Europe with ports of the Far East are discussed. Attention is paid to shortening the route and voyage time due to the use of the Northern Sea Route in the Arctic and the possibility of seasonal use of ordinary vessels commonly used in areas where ice does not occur. These vessels are cheaper in construction and operation than vessels suitable for navigation in ice (having ice or polar classes) and are more competitive in the market in ice-free areas. The history of the intensity of use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) for the purposes of transit and the import–export system of the NSR area itself and between NSR ports is presented. Attention is paid to the relations of short-term changes in the cargo volume transported on the NSR with the occurrence of world armed conflicts and the state of the world economy. The ice classes of vessels are described and vessel ability for unassisted navigation in ice. In order to be able to carry out any sea voyage in accordance with the requirements of Good Practice of Seaman and the International Maritime Organization, the vessel should have a passage plan before commencing the voyage. The phases and time frames of a typical voyage plan have been discussed. Attention was paid to the “initial” planning (3–6 months ahead) and “general” (1–3 months ahead) which concerns the time period before availability of forecasts of ice navigation conditions published by the NSR Administration. It was found that for the purpose of initial voyage planning, it is important to understand the “operational” planning principles regarding passage of vessel under real operating conditions in 1–3 day advance. The chapter identifies the main and complementary work objectives required, in case one wants to reach the goals of initial voyage planning and scheduling. It is assumed that technological progress should be taken into account through the use of algorithms for the decision support system, the formulation of data at the input of the system and the development of computer calculation principles in a commonly used spreadsheet. Also, the rule that the proposed solutions of the decision-making models and algorithms for vessel voyage planning and scheduling should not be accepted uncritically and automatically deployed to implementation is assumed. It should be possible human intervention (of person responsible for developing the plan) at every stage of voyage planning. It can be assumed that developed decision-making method and its evaluation will be multicriteria. There will not be one unambiguous solution. The correct result should take into account the criteria of © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 T. Pastusiak, Voyages on the Northern Sea Route, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-25490-2_1

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1 Introductory Information

the priorities adopted. The choice of the weight of these criteria should depend on knowledge and experience of the person commanding the vessel same like priorities and circumstances of navigation. Keywords Northern Sea Route · NSR transits · Cargo volume statistics · Safety of sea transport · Good practice of seamen · Vessel traffic control · AIRSS · POLARIS · Polar code · Ice passport

1.1 Introduction to Planning of Vessel Voyage in Ice There are two main shipping lanes in the Arctic Ocean. While both connect the Atlantic with the Pacific, the first of them, known as the Northwest Passage (NWP Northwest Passage), runs along the northern coast of Canada, and the other, known as the Northeast Passage (NEP), along the northern coast of the Russian Federation. The section of the Northeast Passage which lies along the northern coast of Asia and remains completely covered in ice throughout the cold season, which in that area lasts from October–November to May–June, is referred to as the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The Northeast and Northwest Passages both display a clearly seasonal character, which makes them possible to use only for a relatively short period of time each year. The navigation infrastructure on the NSR east of the 090° E meridian is unsatisfactory. This applies in particular to the eastern part of the NSR, i.e. the Laptev Sea, East Siberian Sea and Chukchi Sea (Pastusiak 2015b). It seems that this is a consequence of the very harsh climatic conditions that occur there. In order to reach the beginning of the NSR, one must pass through at least one sea where ice phenomena occur during the winter season. In the west, or on the Atlantic (European) side, it is the Barents Sea; in the east, or on the Pacific (American–Far East) side, it is the Bering Sea. Ice conditions existing on both of these seas during the warm season are far more favourable for navigation than those on the NSR, and the navigation season there is considerably longer. The Northern Sea Route crosses four seas of the Russian Arctic: the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi Seas, all of which lie north of the Arctic Circle. To the south, the seas are bordered by the coast of the continent. Their western and eastern borders are marked by groups of islands: Novaya Zemlya, Severnaya Zemlya, New Siberian Islands and Wrangel Island (Fig. 1.1), and further on follow lines of longitude, which cross the northernmost points of these islands and reach the northern borders of the seas. The northern borders follow the lines connecting the northern headlands of archipelagos in the Kara Sea with the points marking the northern edge of the continental shelf along the lines of longitude for the northernmost points in the respective archipelagos (in the Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi Seas). The eastern boundary of the NSR is formed by the Bering Strait. The western boundary follows the lines running along the Yugorsky Shar Strait, Vaygach Island,

1.1 Introduction to Planning of Vessel Voyage in Ice

5

Fig. 1.1 Maritime transport routes on Arctic Ocean; ▬●▬ Northwest Passage; Northeast Passage and Northern Sea Route: ·—· transarctic route, ─ ─ ─ transit route, intermediate route, coastal route 1—Barents Sea, 2—Kara Sea, 3—Laptev Sea, 4—East Siberian Sea, 5— Chukchi Sea, 6—Bering Sea, 7—Norwegian Sea, 8—Greenland Sea, 9—Davis Strait, 10—Baffin Bay, 11—Canadian Archipelago, 12—Lincoln Sea, 13—Beaufort Sea. Compiled by the author based on Free vector and raster map data@ natural-earthdata.com and Jakobsson et al. (2012)

Kara Gates Strait and Novaya Zemlya to Cape Zhelaniya, and then on to the easternmost island of the archipelago, namely Franz Josef Land. Using the Northern Sea Route reduces the distance between a European port (Rotterdam) and the Far East ports (Japan, South Korea and China) by the average of 27%. As a result, if it was possible to use the route without difficulty, voyage time between the ports would decrease by the average of 16%. The percentages were calculated on the basis of the average speed of Arc7 (ULA) class vessels navigating from Europe to the ports of the Far East, which is 12.9 knots for vessels going via the Suez Canal and 11.25 knots for those using the Northern Sea Route (Mulherin 1996). Reduced distance and voyage time are bound to bring clear financial benefits, which is why there has long been much interest in the possibility of using the route (Mulherin 1996; Ragner 2000; Peresypkin and Yakovlev 2008; Lammers 2010; Liu and Kronbak 2010; Ruksha 2012; Oestreng 2013; Ha and Seo 2014; Pastusiak 2016i; Pruyn 2016). The number of voyage permits issued by the NSR Administration increased from about 630 annually in 2013 and 2014 to over 710 annually in the years 2015 and 2016 (Humpert 2017). The number of days during the navigation season when the conditions on the NSR were favourable for Arc4- and Arc5-class vessels dropped from 153 in 2013 to 124 in 2016. The number of transit voyages also

6

1 Introductory Information

decreased, from 70 in 2013 to 18–19 a year in the years 2015 and 2016 (Humpert 2017; CHNL Information Office 2018). At the same time, however, there was an increase in the overall amount of cargo shipped along the NSR from 2.8 million tons in 2013 to 6.9 million tons in 2016 (Humpert 2017). Despite a drop in the number of transit voyages along the NSR, between European ports and ports of the Far East, completed in the years 2014 and 2015, it is predicted that in the twenty-first century ice conditions will improve significantly, which will stimulate the development of seasonal navigation in the area, also by low-ice-class vessels (Melia et al. 2017). The improvement in ice conditions is true also for the slowest climate changes assumed by RCP 2.6. As mentioned above, the NSR cannot be used throughout the year. The route is distinctly seasonal in character (Zaleski 1967; Ivanov et al. 1999; Stephenson et al. 2014; Melia et al. 2017; Pastusiak 2016i; Zhang and Meng 2016), due to the fact that for most of the year it remains covered by concentrated sea ice. In the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, ice conditions on the NSR were usually so harsh that it was impossible for a vessel to cross the entire route within a single navigation season, even in the warmest part of the year. The Laptev and East Siberian Seas constituted a bottleneck, as ice conditions in those areas, even in the warm season, were difficult enough to render navigation impossible (Marsz et al. 2014). At that time, the usual solution, adopted in periods when ice conditions were less severe, was to use only the eastern (the Chukchi Sea and the eastern part of the East Siberian Sea) and/or western (the Kara Sea) section of the NSR. In years when ice conditions were clearly lighter, as for example from the 1930s to mid-1940s, it became possible for vessels to cross the NSR when assisted by an icebreaker (or icebreakers). This usually took place between the second half of August and the end of September (a period of 5–6 weeks). On few occasions, for example in 1938, 1940, 1943, 1944 and 1945, the NSR was crossed from the Bering Strait to the Barents Sea by unassisted vessels (Armstrong 1952; Brennecke 2001; Eyssen 2002; UKHO 2015; Pastusiak 2016i), including a few which lacked constructional features making it relatively safe to navigate in ice (ice class). Icebreakers available at that time had limited capability for navigating through ice. As a result, navigating the NSR depended largely on the existing ice conditions. If a convoy came across ice conditions beyond the capability of the assisting icebreakers, it could remain in a safe place and continue on its way in the following navigation season. Another alternative was to return to the port of departure and try to cross the NSR again in the following year or to go southward instead and navigate around Asia and Europe (Pastusiak 2018a). Transit voyages on the NSR became much more effective after the introduction of nuclear-powered icebreakers, which were a great deal more efficient at navigating through ice. In the 1970s and 1980s, ice conditions on the NSR again became slightly less severe, which made the route navigable in the warmest part of the year. Common practice at that time, however, was to conduct shipping activities with the use of ice-class vessels accompanied by an icebreaker or convoys led by an icebreaker and additionally assisted by another, less powerful vessel. At the turn of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, ice conditions in the Arctic became considerably lighter (Johannessen et al. 2007; Maslanik et al. 2007; AMSA

1.1 Introduction to Planning of Vessel Voyage in Ice

7

2009; Kwok and Rothrock 2009; Marsz and Styszy´nska 2010; Marchenko 2012). A decrease in ice cover thickness increased the rate of sea ice surface area reduction. The navigation season began to extend, with the most pronounced changes taking place in seas stretching along the coast of Asia, which is to say, on the NSR. This increased the amount of time during which the seas of the Russian Arctic were accessible for navigation by vessels with relatively low ice classes, which are cheaper to construct and possible to use on the waters of the Arctic without icebreaker support. In recent years, the navigation season on the Northern Sea Route has lasted from the third decade of July until the third decade of October, which is approximately three months. Bearing in mind that the Northern Sea Route is navigable only for a short period of each year, a question emerges how to make economically sound use of vessels with high ice classes in the remaining part of the year. Vessels of this sort are more expensive to construct, and using them outside ice-covered areas is significantly more costly than using typical merchant vessels. This is due to a much higher ratio of vessel’s own weight to its carrying capacity and much greater power of its main engine in relation to its carrying capacity, which causes a considerable increase in the amount of fuel used to cover a given distance. On waters with no ice cover, these constructional features are of no use, but operational costs remain high. Because it is impossible to use these vessels on the NSR in the period when it is closed for navigation, they must be used elsewhere, in areas which are free of ice. At the same time, ice-free or near ice-free conditions, which occur during the short summer navigation period on the NSR, make the route navigable for vessels with no strengthening required for navigation in ice. With the Russian Government allowing vessels other than Russian to navigate on the NSR, the route has become potentially significant as an international shipping lane. This potential significance is turning into actual significance now (GRF 2014, 2017; APE 2016; Melia et al. 2017; Pastusiak 2016b). The importance of the NSR as a shipping lane can be estimated based on the volume of cargo shipped along the route. Shipping activity should be divided into transit voyages between ports located outside the NSR region and those aimed to support human activity within the NSR region and further on the continent. The latter type includes shipping which takes place within the NSR region as well as import and export between the NSR region and ports lying to the east and west of it. Cargo volume charts for the period between the end of First World War (namely, 1920) and the year 2017 can be seen from Fig. 1.2 (Didenko and Cherenkov 2018; CHNL 2018a, b, c, d, e; Kiiski 2017; Belkin 2017; Polovinkin and Fomichev 2014; Gunnarsson 2014; Bambulyak et al. 2012; Balmasov 2011a, b, 2012, Mahoney et al. 2008; Selin and Istomin 2003; Ragner 2000; Sodhi 1995; Armstrong 1952). Statistical information found in different sources was sometimes partially contradictory. Interpretation of trends and short-term changes was based on global or local economic developments. Selected economic and military events were included in volume charts in chronological order. Moreover, the chart (Fig. 1.2) shows important milestones in the development of technology, which had an impact on the capability of vessels to navigate on the NSR, changes in stock exchange quotations (economic development) and selected armed

8

1 Introductory Information

volume of transit cargo, Fig. 1.2 Northern Sea Route cargo volumes in 1920–2017: volume of cargo transported inside the NSR and cargo imported to the NSR region and exported from the NSR region. Compiled by the author based on Didenko and Cherenkov (2018), CHNL (2018a, b, c, d, e), Kiiski (2017), Belkin (2017), Polovinkin and Fomichev (2014), Gunnarsson (2014), Bambulyak et al. (2012), Balmasov (2011a, b, 2012), Mahoney et al. (2008), Selin and Istomin (2003), Ragner (2000), Sodhi (1995), Armstrong (1952)

conflicts occurring in the world. The author would like to stress that economic events influence the emergence of armed conflicts, which—in turn—cause an increase in the demand for natural resources, energy sources and transport services. Local or regional conflicts often make it necessary to start acquiring natural resources in different places, which leads to changes in shipping routes. They also cause changes in the demand for particular resources or energy sources. As a result, some locations end up losing their significance, while others grow in prominence. The same is true for internal, import–export and transit transport in selected regions. Armed conflicts, in the final effect, cause a global increase in cargo shipping. A comparison of the volume of cargo shipped along the NSR and main economic events occurring in the world suggests that the most important factor with a negative impact on the amount of shipped goods on the NSR is the state of economy of the Russian Federation (formerly USSR). Its negative consequences were visible in 1986, when USSR economy weakened and then underwent dynamic free-market changes due to Perestroika. A positive impact could be observed in the years 2014 and 2018, as a result of Russia adopting a strategy for developing the Northern Sea Route. This included increased export of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the newly built port of Sabetta. The state of global economy also affected the volume of cargo shipped along the NSR in a negative way. It is well noticeable on

1.1 Introduction to Planning of Vessel Voyage in Ice

9

the example of DJ Index significant fall in 1929 and a fall in DJIA Index in 1987 in relation to total cargo volume. A negative impact of global economy on the number of transit voyages on the NSR was visible, for example, in the CRB Index fall recorded in 2008 and 2012 as well as in a decrease in coal and crude oil prices recorded in 2011 and 2014, respectively. Crude oil and coal are among resources extracted in the NSR region. Beginnings and endings of armed conflicts usually led to a decrease in cargo volume on the NSR. The tendency was visible during the Second World War (1941–1943), at the beginning of the First Indochina War (1946), at the beginning and the end of the Vietnam War (1964, 1970) and at the beginning and the end of the war in Afghanistan (1979, 1985). The end of the war in Lebanon (1985) and the end of the Persian Gulf War (1988), on the other hand, brought an increase in the number of transit voyages on the NSR. The attack on World Trade Center (2001), which triggered the war on terrorism in the world and piracy on marine shipping lanes, caused short-term fluctuations in the period of general stagnation in shipping on the NSR (1996–2010). Ultimately, acts of terrorism and sea piracy seem to cause an increase in cargo volume on the NSR. This is due to consistent and decisive actions undertaken by the Government of Russian Federation in order to ensure security within its borders, including the NSR in the Arctic. A controversial case which, at the same time, confirmed the consistency of the country’s policy on the issue was Russia’s severe response to the activities of Greenpeace activists who reached the Prirazlomnaya drilling platform located in the Pechora Bay in the Barents Sea, in 2013. Important milestones for the technological development on the NSR are normally related to construction of vessels better able to navigate through ice and new studies of ice-covered areas conducted with the use of satellite remote sensing. They are usually reached during periods of increased cargo volume or in immediately preceding periods, and they seem to result from the need for a longer navigation season on the NSR. They do not, however, constitute the main stimulus for an increase in cargo volume. The growth of the importance of the Northern Sea Route as an important international transit shipping lane is hindered by at least two factors. The first of them is a wide range of hazards, which make navigating on the NSR more dangerous for the vessel, the cargo and the crew than is the case in different areas. The other factor is a considerably higher economic risk involved in shipping operations on the NSR. These two factors are interlinked. There are no appropriate generalizations, which could be directly applied by the person commanding vessel in order to minimize potential hazards existing along the route. This is due to the fact that relatively few vessels have passed through the NSR in ice-free or near ice-free conditions, and, as a result, there is little accumulated experience for others to draw on. Higher economic risk is, to a great extent, due to a lack of quantified methods for planning a voyage on the NSR in a way which would make it possible to estimate the degree of risk involved and the probability of success before commencing the voyage. Thus, it is impossible to predict probability of financial benefits versus losses for the ship operator.

10

1 Introductory Information

Navigation along the Northern Sea Route involves a unique set of hazards, of various nature, which differ from those typically existing on waters outside of the Arctic. The main hazard on the NSR is the variability in ice conditions, which poses constant risk for the vessel and may—in extreme cases—hamper unassisted navigation along parts or the whole length of the route completely impossible. Hazards caused by ice conditions vary in time and space. Their dynamic character means that reliable forecasts can only be issued for specific areas and not much in advance. On their website, the NSR Administration publishes maps of ice cover forecasts for up to 72 h ahead (http://nsra.ru/ru/navigatsionnaya_i_ gidrometinformatsiya/icecharts.html. Accessed 05.01.2018) as well as interactive maps and written information regarding ice conditions, related to vessels with particular ice classes and vessels with no ice strengthening for up to 72 h ahead, and updated every 72–96 h (http://nsra.ru/ru/navigatsionnaya_i_gidrometinformatsiya/ types_ice_conditions.html. Accessed 05.01.2018). On the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) website, one can find interactive maps of ice condition forecasts up to 144 h ahead, updated every 12 h (http://www.aari.ru/?id=4&sub= 6, (tab „Qiclennye gidpodinamiqeckie ppognozy”). Accessed 05.01.2018). On this website are available also maps of speed and drift of ice, the speed of sea current and sea level (up to 132 h ahead, updated every 168 h). These charts of ice drift and sea current, however, have lower resolution than interactive maps of ice condition forecasts. http://www.aari.ru/?id=4&sub=6, (tab „Gidpologiqeckie ppognozy”). Accessed 05.01.2018). Despite the availability of the above-mentioned charts, it is still crucial for vessels navigating on the NSR to have access to continuous (released for shorter periods of time) and more frequently updated, reliable information regarding actual ice conditions on the NSR. This information must be up-to-date and available in appropriate resolution so that it really is of use to the person commanding the vessel. Coastal waters along the NSR pose additional dangers. Glacier retreat, due to climate warming, causes changes in the coastline course. Finally, it may lead to the formation of straits and islands in areas formerly covered by glacier or ice island. The average rates of retreat of some glacier cliffs at southern Spitsbergen were approximately 106 m per annum (Grabiec et al. 2018) in the last years of increased reduction of ice in the Arctic (2000–2015), but generally, glaciers in Hornsund (southern Spitsbergen) and in the Arctic increased their recession (Carr et al. 2017; Błaszczyk et al., in press). The advance of the glacier may be caused by the glacier surge and may lead to ~15 km advance in 5 years of time (Grabiec et al. 2018 following Sund et al. 2014). These contradictory behaviours (retreat and advance) lead to unpredictable change pattern of glaciated coastline in relatively short time period. It may not be shown on navigational charts currently being in use. The seas comprising the NSR are divided by archipelagos (Fig. 1.1). Numerous islands can also be found within the boundaries of particular seas, for example the Kara Sea. Islands make navigation along the NSR difficult because water depth in their vicinity varies considerably and many shallows, which form obstacles for navigation, can be found there. Similarly complicated conditions for navigation exist along numerous sections of the continental coast. The bathymetry of coastal areas determines the exact location of shipping routes avail-

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able for navigation and the dangers which exist along the routes. Bathymetry and dangerous sea bottom features are static in character, which is to say, they exist in the same places (areas) and usually remain there for several years. They are visible on navigation charts. However, it is related to areas of well-recognized bathymetry. Most of the Arctic regions are still not sufficiently surveyed or not surveyed at all. Previous research by the author in the Arctic (Pastusiak 2012) showed that on the vessel’s routes along the coastline (or water side/terminus of glacier) at depths from 11 to 123 m (median was equal 30 m) the maximum depth changes were 34 per 100 m along route and the median of these changes was 3.4 m on the 100 m section of the route. In contrast, the maximum change in the depth towards the shoreline (or waterfront/terminus of glacier) was 200 m on the 100 m section (very steep) and the median of these changes was 23.5 m on the 100 m section perpendicular to the coastline. The results of works by the author (Pastusiak 2012) are in line with research of Moskalik et al. (2012). Thus, the greatest depth changes should be expected for the directions towards the shoreline. However, even the smallest depth changes reported in the author’s study (Pastusiak 2012) should be regarded as dangerous in unsurveyed or insufficiently surveyed regions (IHO 1994, 2009; The Norwegian Hydrographic Service and Norwegian Polar Research Institute 1990). In poorly recognized regions, the vessel should proceed along recommended routes. Hydrographic analysis of the most problematic areas on the NSR is becoming increasing more comprehensive (Monko 2012; Melenas 2013; Palnikov 2013; Pankov 2013), as a result of which access to information on bathymetric hazards is no longer critical for navigation. However, the presence of islands and shallow waters, which exert a great impact on the direction of tidal and wind currents and form an obstacle for drifting sea ice, complicates ice conditions in their vicinity. This creates another set of hazards for vessels navigating in these areas (Gorbunov et al. 2007, 2008; Benzeman 2008, 2010; Mironov et al. 2010; Marchenko 2012; ESIMO 2018a, b). Before reaching the NSR, it is necessary to cross the Barents Sea or the Bering Sea, depending on voyage direction. Inspection points for vessels heading towards the NSR can be found in both of these seas: in the port/at the roadstead of Murmansk (the Barents Sea), Arkhangelsk (the White Sea and part of the Barents Sea) and Provideniya (the Bering Sea). Inspections, carried out by the Russian Administration of the Northern Sea Route, are compulsory and very thorough, in accordance with relevant regulations. If the NSR Administration decides that a vessel meets all safety requirements and that hydrometeorological conditions (especially ice conditions) on the NSR enable safe passage, the vessel is granted a permission to navigate on the route. Such a permission specifies additional conditions, which a given vessel must comply with during its voyage on the NSR. In keeping with good practice of seamen, in order to be able to complete a sea voyage, each vessel must have a voyage plan before it sets out. According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), a standard voyage plan is (should be) made up of several stages, which correspond with particular sets of tasks:

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1 Introductory Information

• Appraisal—an initial stage during which a range of information which must be collected before the start of the voyage is determined (it includes internal information, regarding the vessel and its operational features, as well as external information, regarding the course of the route and conditions existing along the route); this stage must be completed before moving on to the next one. • Planning—during this stage, it is decided how to cover particular segments of the route along which the voyage will take place. • Execution—during this stage, the plan is implemented. • Monitoring—this stage focuses on voyage supervision. In practice, the first two stages are combined and completed before the beginning of the voyage. The other two constitute the actual execution of a voyage and, for obvious reasons, are completed at sea. When planning a voyage on the NSR according to the IMO guidelines, the process can be divided into a strategic stage and a tactical stage. The goal of the strategic stage is to specify general actions necessary for the vessel to reach its destination, which is done on the basis of statistical data and long-term forecasts published on the NSR Administration website and obtained from other sources. The goal of the tactical stage is to determine ways in which the voyage can be realized and the strategic goal (successful completion of the voyage) achieved. Navigation on the NSR makes it necessary to distinguish between at least two types of tactics. The first type is a standard tactic, which is no different from those commonly adopted during navigation in ice-free waters. The other, different tactic should be adopted once the vessel has reached ice-covered waters (Wi´sniewski and Drozd 2000; Timco et al. 2005). In this work, the terms “strategy” and “tactic”, defined by Timco et al. (2005), carry a slightly different meaning than they do in everyday contexts, including the military one (GSE 1976). When the other tactic is employed, the way in which the vessel is guided (course, speed) is determined by a dynamically changing ice situation around the vessel and along a longer segment of the planned route (about 100–200 NM), leading in the desired direction. Due to considerable time and space variability of ice conditions, the latter tactic cannot be planned in much detail in advance. Both the strategic and the tactical stages include appraisal, planning, execution and monitoring (IMO 2000; Wi´sniewski and Drozd 2000). The plan is made for a period of up to nine days. Long-term (operational) planning, as specified by Timco et al. (2005), covers a period from nine days to one day, and the plan is developed separately for one-day periods of time. This type of planning includes plotting the segment of the route up to the point at which the vessel enters the ice-covered area as well as the route through ice. Short-term (tactical) planning is done for a period of up to 24 h and includes a 24-h plan as well as a detailed hourly plan. The structure of voyage plan recommended by the NSR Administration differs from a typical voyage plan used commonly in international navigation. Two different approaches clash here: a “marine” approach (in which the plan is devised by the captain or by a properly qualified deck officer designated by the captain) and a “shore” approach (imposed by the NSR Administration). Practical differences between the

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two approaches are greater when the “marine” approach is adopted not only by vessel crews, but also by “shore” operators. The “shore” side (the NSR Administration) and the “marine” side (vessel crews and operators) use different categories and terminology for time frames on which voyage plans are based. These differences lead to potential misunderstandings. It is therefore necessary to first explain how the issue of voyage planning is viewed by the route administration, how it is viewed by vessel crews, and which set of time frames will be investigated by the author further on in this work. From the point of view of the NSR Administration (Khvochtchinski and Batskikh 1998), planning a voyage in ice-covered areas includes the following stages: • • • • •

potential navigation planning (from 3 to 25–30 years in advance); initial planning (3–6 months in advance); general planning (1–3 months in advance); tactical planning (10–30 days in advance); operational planning (1–10 days in advance).

Planning “potential navigation” from 3 to 30 years in advance does not lie within the scope of interest of a vessel operator, let alone a merchant vessel captain. In the case of the NSR, this type of planning is more about predicting the need for infrastructural investments along the route, done with the use of various climate change projections as well as information on supply and demand trends in the field of transport services, the volume of cargo streams, development trends in transportation technology, spatial development of the northern regions of the Russian Federation (the NSR enables access to the mouths of great Siberian rivers and is crucial for securing transportation needs of large areas of Siberia), etc. This type of planning is fundamental for long-term strategic decisions. Bearing in mind the rate at which technological developments take place in the field of shipbuilding and transport in general, as well as the rate of climate change, it seems rather doubtful that making rational decision a decade or more in advance is at all possible. It must be kept in mind that in Russia the time needed to construct a large nuclear-powered icebreaker (from producing a design to completing trial runs at sea) is between 5 and 6.5 years. In South Korea or Japan, on the other hand, constructing a vessel of similar size and level of complexity takes 20% less time. “Initial planning” and “general planning” from the model used by the NSR Administration may be seen as a transitional element in the creation of a decision support system, which—in turn—resembles the “initial stage” as defined by the IMO. As a result, later in this work both are referred to as initial voyage planning. According to the NSR Administration, operational planning from the “shore” side (5–10 days in advance) is done in order to update the existing voyage plan by making decisions regarding the appointment of icebreakers, organization of convoys, distribution of icebreakers along the route, and places where convoys form and break up. The goal of short-term operational planning (1–5 days in advance), as specified by the NSR Administration, is to select places where vessels might stop (interrupt their voyage) should ice conditions become too hard. In other words, operational plans for

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navigating on the NSR, done by the route’s administration, are above all supposed to ensure the availability of icebreaker services in areas where ice conditions may prove problematic. The NSR Administration should also facilitate access to information on hydrological, meteorological and ice conditions, which is necessary for vessel route planning (MMM 1990; MTR 2013). It is not specified what the content of the information is, how reliable and up-to-date it is and what resolution it is available in. The NSR Regulations, however, do specify that assistance should be provided by means of recommendations given from shore-based units with regard to navigation on set routes, recommendations given from planes or helicopters, conventional pilotage, remote pilotage from an icebreaker, or by means of an icebreaker leading the way. It seems that at the operational planning stage there is much potential and many risks for the schedule drawn up during initial voyage planning, which includes, among others, dates of commencing an completing the voyage and, at the same time, the overall voyage time. Voyage time and fuel consumption are factors with the greatest impact on the economic result of the planned voyage. Initial voyage planning requires one to understand the principles of planning navigation in real operational conditions 1–3 days in advance, known as operational (current) planning. To refer to such a time frame, the IAMSAR manual for planning search and rescue operations at sea IAMSAR (2013) uses the term “on-scene”. For the NSR Administration, the time frame associated with “operational planning” is much wider—from 1 to 10 days—which is understandable for the “shore” approach. From the point of view of a vessel navigating in ice, however, such advance planning is impossible. Later in this work, Russian terminology is used with regard to voyage planning classification (from the point of view of a “shore” operator). As a result, the on-scene planning done by vessel captain or vessel operator and covering a few-day-long section from the port of departure to the beginning of the Northern Sea Route, the entire NSR (where ice can be encountered), and a few-day-long section from the end of the NSR to the port of destination, will be referred to as tactical planning (Khvochtchinski and Batskikh 1998), which—in keeping with the IMO terminology—is most closely related to the stage of “Planning”. Planning done before and after entering the ice zone, discussed by Wi´sniewski and Drozd (2000) and IMO (2000), is known as operational planning, although the time frame associated with it is only 1–3 days compared to 1–10 days allowed by the NSR Administration (Khvochtchinski and Batskikh 1998). For a vessel navigating in ice-covered areas, operational planning must be based on maps of current ice conditions and short-term ice condition forecasts (up to 3 days in advance), published on the website of the NSR Administration. Route planning and the execution of the plan at sea should involve (and be based on) acquiring very detailed information on existing ice conditions, including: • information on the easiest and safest routes (canals through ice, open waters free of concentrated ice, polynyas, etc.);

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• information on how to minimize or seriously limit the hazards existing along a given segment of the route (icebergs and their fragments, areas of concentrated ice, areas of ridged ice, etc.); • local pilotage information; and following instructions received from icebreakers staying in the area and from the NSR Marine Operations Headquarters. Such detailed information should be acquired locally by means of radio communication with other vessels navigating along the NSR, icebreakers, coastal radio stations and local aircraft reconnaissance (MMM 1990; MTR 2013) as well as through own visual observations and data provided by ship radars. It should also include facsimile maps, transmitted by Russian and American radio stations, and detailed ice form maps, with resolution equal to that of information acquired by means of visual observation and with the use of ship radars. The scope of information passed on to vessels is determined by the NSR Marine Operations Headquarters and subordinate organizational units (MMM 1990; MTR 2013), which is why vessel command has no say as to its content or frequency at which it is released.

1.2 Description of Ice Classes and Vessel Capability for Unassisted Navigation Regulations of the Russian Maritime Register of Shipping (RMRS 2016, 2018) specify that vessels with ice classes lower than L1 (Arc4) are only permitted to navigate outside of the Arctic. It is worth noting that in the source literature one can come across two similar terms—ice classes: “No” (a steel hull but no ice strengthening), Ice1 (L4), Ice2 (L3), Ice3 (L2); and polar classes: Arc4 (L1), Arc5 (UL), Arc6, Arc7 (ULA), Arc8 and Arc9. The Russian Register regulations (RMRS 2018) distinguish between two groups of classes, arctic and non-arctic, but the division between the groups is the same as mentioned above. Both of them are referred to as ice classes. Thus defined ice classes stand for different types of ice strengthening and different capabilities for navigating through ice. As a result, they lead to differences in acceptable ice conditions and possible timing for navigation in ice. Regulations for navigation on the Northern Sea Route (MMM 1990; MTR 2013) allow for deviations from RMRS (2016, 2018) requirements at the discretion of the NSR Administration. This concerns mainly the period of “ice-free” navigation for vessels with appropriate ice classes and those without ice strengthening. The term “ice-free navigation” is misleading in that it does not denote the sea surface being literally free of ice. It does, however, affect the length of the ice-free season determined by the route’s administration. It is possible to obtain an individual permission for ice-free navigation on the NSR for a vessel with an ice class and a vessel without ice strengthening. It should be stressed, however, that the latter type vessels are only allowed to navigate in waters which are free of ice. A document allowing navigation

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on the NSR specifies voyage route or area, acceptable ice conditions for unassisted navigation, acceptable ice conditions for navigation in the company of an icebreaker and the document’s expiry date. In order to compile acceptable ice navigation parameters (Appendix A), numerous sources were used (Arikaynen and Tsubakov 1987; Troeglazov 2007; NRC 2007; OCIMF 2010; MFOC 2012; MTR 2013; Nyseth and Bertelsen 2014; RMRS 2016; Tsoy 2017; RMRS 2018) NSR Administration (http://nsra.ru/ru/navigatsionnaya_i_ gidrometinformatsiya/types_ice_conditions.html. Accessed 07.01.2018), Baltic Sea Ice Services, BSH (http://www.bsis-ice.de/ma-terial/table_iceclasses.pdf. Accessed 07.01.2018). Tabular data (Appendix A) were supplemented with information on time periods when navigation on the NSR (MTR 2013; Tsoy 2017; RMRS 2018) and on the Canadian Arctic (MFOC 2012) is possible for vessels with particular ice classes. A direct comparison of ice navigation parameters caused some difficulty as it was hard to directly compare selected ice classes. This is one of the reasons why the data should be treated as an illustrative example, to understand the impact of ice cover parameters on vessel speed and ability to navigate through ice. The information presented in the table must not be used directly during navigation in ice. When making decisions regarding voyage planning and on-scene determination of vessel movement parameters, the vessel operator or captain should make use of information included in the Ice Certificate, taking into account the ice class and constructional features of the vessel, its load, speed and manoeuvrability as well as professional experience of the captain, deck officers and helmsmen with regard to ice navigation in relation to the perceived hydrometeorological conditions. Vessels with steel hulls without ice strengthening are only permitted to navigate in those seas of the NSR where current ice conditions are regarded by the NSR Administration as light. In the case of vessels with ice classes up to Arc5 inclusive, tabular ice data (Appendix A) refer to ice occurring in the area during the summer season, showing ice decay of second–third degree. This degree of ice decay means changes to the ice cover ranging from puddles and the surface of ice being locally covered in water to the occurrence of thaw holes, fractures and canals, and ice surface drying.

1.3 Administrative Methods to Control Traffic Safety of Vessels in Ice Administrative method of the Russian Federation to control traffic safety in ice takes into account many factors. These include the zone of the NSR, ice class of a given vessel, level of severity of ice conditions in the zone (heavy, medium, light/easy) and type of navigation (independent or with icebreaker assistance). The zones of NSR subject to assessment have a large surface area. They are parts of the seas (SW and NE parts of the Kara Sea, W and E parts of the Laptev Sea, SW and NE parts

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of the East Siberian Sea and SW Chukchi Sea) (RMRS 2016, 2018; NSRA 2017, 2018). Due to large area of surface of reference the ice conditions are generalized, it means they are not presented in details. The factors are summarized in the safety assessment table (RMRS 2016, 2018). On the basis of data presented in the table, a simple answer to the question is obtained—navigation of a given vessel is either permitted or prohibited. Administrative method of the Canadian Shipping Safety Control to control traffic safety in ice divides the region of responsibility into zones (MFOC 2012). The zones are of relatively small surface areas in relation to the Russian ones. Large part of these zones is covered by land. The table presents the period of time when a vessel of a given ice class is able to navigate in each of the zones. If the zone is not accessible (according to the table) within the planned time period, then vessels using Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System (AIRSS) standards may enter the ice with given characteristics (concentration and age) only if the Ice Numeral (IN) is equal to or greater than zero. Ice Numeral (IN) serves (in mathematical terms) to determine whether the vessel may enter ice of given ice conditions (concentration and age). The age of ice is precisely determined by the thickness of ice. Calculation of Ice Numeral (IN) consists of summing the results of multiplication of partial ice concentrations in a given zone by their Ice Multiplier (IM) (Formula 1.1). Ice Multiplier (IM) should be read from the second table based on the ice class of a given vessel and the age of ice. The vessel with the lowest ice class has “no ice class”. The youngest ice is “open water”. The term of “open water” means that the water is not exactly clean, but may include less than 10% of ice (MFOC 2012). IN = (C1 · IM1 ) + (C2 · IM2 )

(1.1)

where IN C1, C2 IM1 , IM2

Ice Numeral, partial concentration (portion of zone coverage by ice of a specific concentration), Ice Multiplier.

If the total concentration (covering the sea with ice) under the given ice conditions is 60% (6/10) or more and at least 30% (3/10) of the ice is deformed (ridges, rubbles or hummocking), then the IM should be corrected. Value of Ice Multiplier (IM) obtained in the second table should be reduced by 1 (adding algebraic numeral “−1”). The ice multiplier (IM) may be The Ice Multiplier (IM) which may be increased by 1 (adding algebraic numeral “+1”) for decayed ice. Ice in decayed state (decayed ice) means a multiyear ice, second-year ice, or thick or medium first-year ice containing thaw holes, or rotten ice. In case of brash ice (predominantly found in well-defined icebreaker tracks), the Ice Multiplier (IM) may be increased by 2 (adding algebraic numeral “+2”). Administrative method to control traffic safety in ice, recommended by IMO (IMO 2016; Hindley 2016; Stoddard et al. 2016), is called Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS). This method does not divide region

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of responsibility into zones. It is related to the planned route and actual or expected ice conditions (regime). At first, the Risk Index Value (RIV) should be taken from the table based on the ice class of a given vessel and the age of ice. The vessel with the lowest ice class has “no ice class”. The youngest ice is “ice-free water”. The Risk Index Value represents relative risk evaluation for particular ice classes of vessels. There are two tables of the RIV. The first table is designated for normal ice conditions, and the second table is for decayed ice conditions. Operational risk level value for a given vessel is presented by Risk Index Outcome (RIO). The Risk Index Outcome values are basis for making a decision whether to operate with or without limitation in the area where ice exists. Calculation of Risk Index Outcome (RIO) consists of summing the results of multiplication of partial ice concentrations in a given zone by their Risk Index Values (RIVs) (Formula 1.2). RIO = (C1 · RIV1 ) + (C2 · RIV2 )

(1.2)

where RIO C1, C2 RIV1 , RIV2

Risk Index Outcome, partial concentration in tenths (portion of zone coverage by ice of a specific concentration), Risk Index Value corresponding for each ice concentration.

Table of assessment of the Risk Index Outcome takes into account vessel ice class, season of operation and type of operation. Ice classes are divided into two groups, i.e. ice classes from PC1 to PC7 and ice classes below PC7 including vessels without ice class. Type of operation includes independent voyage or voyage with icebreaker assistance. Types of allowed operation are determined by values of RIO higher or equal “0”, between values of “0” and “−10”, and for RIO values below “−10”. “Normal operation”, “elevated operational risk” and “operation subject to special consideration” are within the RIO ranges. The term of “normal operation” does not impose any operational limitations but due caution and good seamanship are to be followed. In case of “elevated operational risk”, more caution and speed reduction are recommended. In case of operation that is “subject to special consideration”, appropriate procedures such as extreme caution, further reduction of a vessel speed and change in the planned route are to be applied. In the POLARIS, it is the captain of a vessel who assesses ice conditions, calculates RIO, uses ice charts and uses the current ice conditions observed during passage. It means that the captain of a vessel should consider not only the calculation result, which is usually related to the average value, but also should rely on his own knowledge and experience, and the existing and expected circumstances of ice navigation. Another administrative method that serve to control vessel safety in ice recommended by IMO is the concept of Ice Passport or the so-called IMO Ice Certificate (Maksimadzhi 1988; IMO 2011; CNIIMF 2014). First technical description of this concept was presented by Ryvlin and Heysin (1980). This document describes conditions of safe navigation in ice. The admissible speed of a vessel is determined on the diagram that includes cargo load condition (under ballast or loaded), type

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of navigation (independent or with icebreaker assistance), horizontal dimensions of ice (level compact ice, large ice floes of diameter 500–2000 m, medium ice floes of diameter 100–500 m, ice cake of diameter less 20 m) and additional factors of ice (ice thickness and presence of ice pressure or hummocks) (CNIIMF 2014). The above-mentioned diagram of attainable speed in relation to ice thickness is divided into four zones (IMO 2011; CNIIMF 2014). Green zone is a range of operational speeds in which movement of a vessel is safe. Yellow zone is a range of speeds available to a vessel due to its technical features. However, movement at such speeds can cause slight deformation of a vessel’s hull plating. Vessel speeds in the range of red zone are still available to a vessel due to its technical features, but they are dangerous. Vessel movement at these speeds can cause damage to vessel’s hull structure. White zone is area of speeds that are not available to a vessel resulting from the main engine power of the vessel, parameters of the propulsion system and the shape of the ship’s hull. The Russian method and then the Canadian AIRSS method are based on the division of region of the coastal states responsibility into partial zones with a smaller area. The conditions of ice navigation and the rules of safe navigation in ice for each of these zones are determined individually. In the actual Russian method, the area of the zones is very large and must be based on a significant generalization of information about ice conditions. For this reason, this is a binary Yes–No decision system. The Canadian AIRSS method evaluates ice conditions in zones of small areas. As a result, safety of sea traffic in areas where ice is present can be controlled more precisely. This is also a binary Yes–No decision system. The POLARIS method does not divide the area of responsibility into control zones, and the captains are not deprived the right to make decisions on the basis of ice maps and current ice conditions visible from a vessel (Hindley 2016). However, because of technical progress of remote sensing, ice conditions of maritime traffic, position and parameters of movement of individual vessels can be precisely determined. Thus, control of the coastal state in the POLARIS no longer requires generalization of ice conditions and is able to control decisions of the captain of each vessel individually (NSRA 2019; Stoddard et al. 2016). The concept of Ice Passport should be helpful for captains of vessels during on-scene voyage planning as complementary measure for vessel traffic safety control systems implemented by Russian Federation, Canada or recommended by IMO.

1.4 Purpose and Scope of the Work Shipowners who do not conduct shipping operations on the NSR may become active in this region with the use of vessels constructed for navigation in ice-free waters. Such vessels are equipped with steel hulls with no ice strengthening. Compared to vessels with ice classes, and especially those with polar classes, they are relatively inexpensive to construct and operate.

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The primary purpose of this monograph is to develop a decision support system for initial voyage planning, which would—among others—make it possible to determine the number of subsequent transit voyages possible to complete by a vessel with a steel hull and no ice strengthening in a single navigation season, and assess the probability of voyage goals being achieved. The main goal of voyage planning is for the vessel to independently complete its voyage from the port of departure to the port of destination outside ice-covered areas and thus without the expensive assistance of icebreakers. A supplementary goal is to limit the amount of time the vessel spends waiting for favourable ice conditions before it is able to continue on its way. From the economic point of view, it is best for the vessel not to have to wait for an improvement in ice conditions at all. Another supplementary goal of voyage planning is to ensure the vessel does not get trapped in ice which starts to grow at the end of the navigation season. This is because in such a situation the vessel would only be able to carry on with the help of icebreakers, which would cost a lot and would therefore mean that the main goal of voyage planning has not been met. The final criterion for effective initial voyage planning is the economic result of the voyage, estimated during the stage of operational planning and including the cost of vessel charter (voyage duration) and overall cost of used fuel. For the monograph to achieve its purpose, a quantified voyage plan model for a segment of the NSR where sea ice occurs must be developed and tested by means of a simulation, in which the model is applied to a specific vessel type and specific transit voyages along the NSR. This makes it necessary to address several related, more complicated issues, such as: • defining, for the sake of voyage planning, the capability of vessels to navigate through ice and the speed they can safely reach in different ice conditions and outside ice-covered areas; identifying opportunities and risks for a successful completion of the voyage; • identifying factors which are highly unpredictable or pose particular danger for the vessel and thus have an impact on the planning process; formulating rules for avoiding dangerous areas, their early detection or rules of conduct in case they cannot be avoided; • developing a method for route selection, taking into account the probability of the same route being used in the future; • developing a method for selecting the earliest possible date for commencing and the latest possible date for completing a voyage along the NSR, which would ensure achieving voyage goals; • determining criteria for safe navigation in ice-covered areas and in their vicinity; • determining criteria and methods for assessing the probability of achieving the goal of the voyage; • developing a method for improving the safety of navigation based on general recommendations and guidelines following from legal regulations on maritime transport;

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• developing algorithms for a model of a decision support system to be employed during initial and operational planning for a vessel without ice strengthening, with the use of readily accessible vector ice maps of the Arctic Seas; • selecting a verification method for the proposed decision support system for longterm route and schedule planning for vessels navigating on the NSR.

1.5 Source Materials and Initial Assumptions Regarding Model Structure The work makes use of readily accessible sources of ice information released by the National Ice Center (NIC) in the USA (NATICE 2019), charts published by the International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean IBCAO (Jakobsson et al. 2012) and vector charts free to access at naturalearthdata.com (Natural Earth 2017). Subject literature describing ice forms and ice navigation options, discussed in this work, was published within approximately the last 100 years. During this period, ice terminology has undergone constant changes. In order to create coherence between terminology and ice form classification used in the past and at present, the work adopts currently used English terminology (Gidrometeoizdat 1974; WMO 1987, 1989, 1994, 2000, 2004; CIS 2005; WMO 2006, 2007, 2010; 2014a, b, 2017; UKHO 2015). Charts, maps and software used by the author may serve to support navigation (Pastusiak 2016e, h, i; JCOMM 2018). When a voyage is being planned, especially during the operational stage of the planning process, planning results should be verified with the use of Electronic Chart Display and Information System (ECDIS) making use of up-to-date official navigation charts. Further on in this work, legal regulations regarding ice class and polar class requirements, vessel speed in ice, the course of currently recommended routes on the NSR, areas closed for navigation, time frames and areas within which vessels with ice strengthened hulls are allowed to navigate without icebreaker assistance, and time frames and areas within which ice-free navigation is possible for vessels without ice strengthening are deliberately omitted. Taking such regulations into account before the start of the study would limit the freedom of basic and experimental research work, the process of analysing and conclusion-drawing as well as creative search for innovative solutions. For the benefit of the reader, basic information about vessel ice classes and ice class requirements for navigation on the NSR are to be found in Appendix A. It has been assumed that the study and its results should take into account general recommendations on the safety and economic efficiency of maritime transport, with the focus on trends in development and safety improvements. In keeping with the requirements of the international management code for the safe operation of ships and for pollution prevention (PRS 2001), a vessel operator should specify and document the captain’s responsibility in terms of giving appropriate commands and instructions in ways which make them simple and clear. As a result, the system for managing a

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vessel and its safety should ensure clear commands and instructions (PRS 2001). A basic rule for presenting a problem and a relevant solution is to “keep it short and simple” (KISS). Excessive documentation and unnecessarily complex procedures may compromise the efficiency of the safety management system (SMS). A proper balance in procedures and documentation must therefore be ensured (MCA 2016). If they are insufficient, SMS requirements will not be met. If they are excessive, trying to meet the requirements will overwhelm the users and compromise their efficiency, which may have a negative impact on the safety of maritime transport. As a result, it has been assumed that decision support systems for voyage planning should be easy to use in practice and should minimize the amount of time and effort involved in the planning process (PRS 2001). Developing the concept of e-navigation is supposed to improve the safety of maritime transport (Mitropoulos 2007; IMO 2008a; Jurdzi´nski and Pastusiak 2009). According to the Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) (Mitropoulos 2007), it is also necessary to make sure that vessel captains and other people expected to make important decisions have access to the latest technologies and verified procedures in the field of navigation and communication. These technologies and procedures should be used to guarantee clarity of information presented to the navigator (displayed on a computer screen, presented in a printed form or in a form of an image, i.e. a schematic diagram). Each integrated system or support system used in the process of decision-making should limit the navigator’s involvement in work which is not directly related to safe navigation. Information should be displayed on the “need to know” basis in order to enable all set tasks to be duly completed. The system should be set up in a way in which it would not come down to its user monitoring automatic processes. It should instead make it easier to reach the right decisions at the right time, according to the principles of good practice of seamen. The plan is, therefore, to employ existing and newly developed technologies to improve navigation safety and economic efficiency (Mitropoulos 2007). Technological development should be taken into account at least by means of introducing algorithms into the decision support system, formulating data at system input and presenting computer calculations in universally known spreadsheet software (there being no need to make use of more complex or less popular programming environments). It has been assumed that an average crew member is not proficient at programming, but has the basic skills necessary to make use of spreadsheets. Therefore, using commonly known and used spreadsheets in the process of voyage planning should make it less likely for anyone to misinterpret the situation and make a wrong decision regarding route selection. As far as ECDIS systems are concerned, improvements in marine transport safety were achieved by means of integrating the position of the vessel with numerous information layers on a single computer screen (UKHO 2016a). As a result of his study, the author should be able to display simultaneously, on a single screen, bathymetric charts, ice cover maps, a network of recommended routes and safe depth boundaries. For this purpose, the author will use Global Mapper software, which counts among GIS software. What singles it out is the fact that, unlike most other software, it can be connected to a GPS receiver and integrate the position of the vessel with the content

1.5 Source Materials and Initial Assumptions Regarding Model Structure

23

of maps being displayed. In terms of functionality, Global Mapper resembles GPS and ECS software and can be used by vessel crew at sea or vessel operators ashore to improve the safety of navigation. For each segment of the chosen route, the error or uncertainty of the chart’s vertical and horizontal components should be taken into account and made known (UKHO 2016a). It is particularly important when calculating safe depth and safe isobath. In the work, it is claimed that inaccuracies can be treated as position error around the vessel. Under-keel clearance should be increased by 10, 15, 25% or more, depending on the category of chart content quality, which can range from CATZOC A1/A2, through CATZOC B and C/D to the unassessed quality represented by the CATZOC U category (UKHO 2016a; IHO 2008). British Admiralty suggests, therefore, that a voyage plan should take into account the quality and accuracy of every electronic navigation chart used in the planning process and specify the impact of chart quality and accuracy on the safety of navigation (UKHO 2016a). Chart accuracy has been discussed in previous works by the author (Pastusiak 2014, 2015a, 2016a, c, d, g), which pointed out errors found in electronic ice charts created with the use of satellite remote sensing. The issue should also be taken into account in the present work. The vertical component of the ship’s position should include its draft, squat (speed allowance) (UKHO 2016a) and standard navigation correction (allowance). It can be done in a number of ways, depending on the adopted study method and the manoeuvrability of the type of vessel used in the study. Voyage planning decision support systems and algorithms suggested in this work should not be unquestioningly accepted or automatically implemented. A person responsible for the preparation of the plan should be able to intervene at every stage of voyage planning. It may be assumed that the route assessment method suggested in this work will be based on multiple categories. As a result, it will not offer a single solution. The final solution should take into account criteria (Pastusiak 2016e, h) relevant from the point of view of the chosen priorities, and the significance of these criteria should depend on the knowledge and professional experience of the captain or decision-maker as well as chosen priorities and specific navigational circumstances existing during the voyage.

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Chapter 2

Decision Support System for Initial Planning of a Voyage on the NSR

Abstract This chapter discusses system of initial transit voyage planning and scheduling of vessels that do not have ice strengthening of the hull through the Northern Sea Route developed by the author. Assumed that vessel should make voyage on the “there and back” way, that is, the first part of the voyage to the East and the second part of the voyage to the West, or vice versa. Planning process concerns 2–5 months advance in time relative to date of planned beginning of voyage. General scheme of the system was presented. The system consists of numerous partial procedures, which allows to achieve information necessary to make decisions. Large number of decisive criteria and input data with uncertain values for vessel’s voyage planning decision-making model required to develop the algorithm that binds components of model and also supports the analysis on computer data processing. The qualitative and quantitative indicators were included in the system. The criteria for route selection in summer navigation season were based on ice concentration using probabilistic methods. Average values of opening and closing dates of ice-free transit zone and their standard deviations were used. Trend lines of opening and closing of the NSR seas for ice-free navigation were approximated using polynomial function of second degree obtained on basis of historical data. The diagram of speed determination of PANAMAX-type vessel was implemented in the model. Duration of ice-free navigation period for vessels without ice strengthening and limited by their draft in the shallow NSR regions is relatively short. In order to plan two consecutive voyages through the NSR on a “there and back” basis, it must be assumed that first voyage will use a network of suggested routes for opening period and will use network of suggested routes for closing the NSR for ice-free navigation. Route determination procedure that uses network of suggested transit routes for opening and closing periods of the NSR regions for ice-free navigation in the east and west directions was described in one of chapters. Principle of avoiding, as much as possible, regions of probable occurrence of extreme ice drift phenomenon was described in other chapter. Designated nets of suggested routes include statistical location of ice massifs and ice cover extent. Criterion of safe depths has already been met at the stage of determining network of suggested routes. Procedure for determining beginning date of voyage on the NSR is based on statistical data described in one of chapters. Duration of ice-free navigation for vessels without ice strengthening and limited by their draft in the shallow NSR regions is relatively short. Procedure for assessing quality of © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 T. Pastusiak, Voyages on the Northern Sea Route, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-25490-2_2

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designated route variant covers length of route and probability of availability this route for ice-free navigation. Voyage cost calculation procedure uses an algorithm that takes into account fuel costs and charter costs. Decision-making module makes performance evaluation of designed route option. It determines whether received results of route plan option meet initial assumptions and whether it is possible or desirable to carry out new voyage plan next time. At this stage, human intervention is necessary, that is, decision-maker. Keywords Decision support system · Economics of ice navigation · Voyage plan · Schedule of voyage · Initial vessel voyage planning · Speed and fuel consumption in ice · PANAMAX vessel From the point of view of shore operators of the Northern Sea Route, the process of planning a voyage in ice-covered areas can be divided into five stages (Khvochtchinski and Batskikh 1998). This work focuses on two of these stages. The first of them is initial planning done 2–5 months in advance on the basis of statistical information, discussed in the following chapters, and information taken from Russian long-term forecasts for the second half of the 2017 navigation season (Sect. 8.2). The other stage is operational planning done a day in advance, which served to verify if the adopted initial voyage planning decision support system functions correctly. The operational plan was based on MIZ ice charts, issued every 24 h by the National Ice Center in the USA (NATICE 2019).

2.1 Initial Planning The first task faced by the author was to determine the dates and the overall number of days during which the NSR would be available for transit navigation by vessels with no ice strengthening. Secondly, it was necessary to estimate the probability of the voyage goal being achieved. The primary voyage goal was for the vessel to reach its port of destination, which is to say, the final port of the voyage on the NSR. A supplementary goal was to maintain continuity of navigation, without having to stop and wait for ice conditions to change in order to enable ice-free navigation. Another supplementary goal was to complete the voyage without icebreaker assistance, which—despite being potentially available—might render a voyage uneconomic due to extremely high costs involved. Navigating on the NSR involves dealing with numerous factors (described in the following chapters) which cannot be confidently predicted and which affect the process of decision-making. These include mainly beginning and end dates of the period during which the NSR is navigable for vessels without ice strengthening, the exact course and length of the route, vessel’s speed in ice and its capability to navigate through ice. It has been assumed that a large number of uncertain input data entered into the model of voyage planning decision support system requires

2.1 Initial Planning

33

developing an algorithm which would combine the components of the system, and supporting the analysis by means of computer data processing and by supplementing the suggested solutions with qualitative or quantitative indicators, facilitating the process of decision-making by presenting the decision-maker with possible solutions. It has also been assumed that decisions are made by the captain or the manager of the voyage planning section in the vessel operator’s office or within the support services helping to ensure safe and economically sound navigation. Criteria for route selection in the summer season are based on ice concentration (Pastusiak 2016h). Ice maps available on the website of the Russian ESIMO project illustrate ice situation according to the probability of encountering ice with concentrations up to 30% and over 30% (Geoserver ESIMO, http://www.aari.ru/projects/ ecimo/index.php?im=104 (Accessed 03.09.2013, actually unavailable). They may serve as an example of employing probabilistic methods in decision-making. The previous work by the author makes use of cumulative distribution function as an initial estimation of dates when the entire NSR opens and closes for ice-free navigation (Pastusiak 2016j, 2018b). The present work also uses a probabilistic method for voyage planning, but this time it is based on the average value and standard deviation and on the trend line approximated by the second-degree polynomial function of the dates when the seas open and close for ice-free transit navigation (Chap. 7). The author’s intention was to develop a method for determining a number of times a vessel with a steel hull with no ice strengthening can successfully cross the NSR within a single navigation season. The method was partially described in a previous work by the author (Pastusiak 2016j). The commencement and end points for a transit voyage are sea ports (roadsteads) where safety inspections, required by the local law, take place before a vessel enters the NSR. For vessels coming from the west and navigating eastwards, the commencement point is the port of Murmansk or Archangelsk; from those coming from the east and navigating westwards, it is the port of Provideniya. Due to the fact that only vessels with relatively low draft can call at the port of Archangelsk (Pastusiak 2016i), the port is not taken into account in the following discussion. Vessels without ice strengthening and with the draft low enough to allow navigation along shallow sections of the NSR can only navigate in ice-free conditions for a relatively short period of time each year (Frolov et al. 2015). As a result, when planning a round voyage on the NSR (there and back), it must be assumed that on the way there the vessel will use the network of routes most likely to be navigable in the period when the ice cover is opening up, and on its way back—the network of routes most likely to be navigable when the ice cover is closing up. This means that nodal points (where decisions must be made regarding subsequent route segments), regular points (where direction of navigation changes) as well as directions and lengths of particular segments making up the network of most probable routes will all be known (Pastusiak 2016i).

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2.2 General Outline of Initial Voyage Planning Decision Support System On the basis of the information given above, a system of initial voyage planning decision support system has been developed. The system makes it possible to predict the time frame within which a merchant vessel with a specified capability to navigate through ice would be able to complete a transit voyage along the NSR in a single navigation season, with a specified degree of probability of the voyage goal being achieved, and basic variable costs the voyage would involve (Fig. 2.1). The system has been presented in the form of a functional diagram. Having taken into consideration time needed for cargo transfer operations, it is possible to use the same algorithm to plan a return voyage. Calculations have been made for a more complex voyage plan, which involved going from the port of Murmansk to the port of Provideniya and, after a specified period of time required for cargo transfer, returning to the port of Murmansk. The general outline is made up of numerous fragmentary procedures, which— when followed—make it possible to obtain information necessary for decisionmaking. A discussion of the fragmentary procedures forming the decision support system presented in Fig. 2.1 is to be found below.

Fig. 2.1 General outline of initial voyage planning decision support system; support module

decision

2.2 General Outline of Initial Voyage Planning Decision Support …

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Fig. 2.2 Operation parameters of PANAMAX-type vessel. Loading conditions of vessel and hydrometeorological conditions: ballast condition, good weather conditions, loaded condition, good weather conditions, ballast condition, bad weather conditions, loaded condition, bad weather conditions. Revolutions of propulsing engine (RPM): SL—Steerability Limit, DSA—Dead Slow Ahead, SA—Slow Ahead, HA—Half Ahead, FMS—Full Manoeuvring Speed, FSS—Full Sea Speed, CRmin—Minimal Limit of Critical Revolutions, CRmax— Maximal Limit of Critical Revolutions. Compiled by the author

Operational parameters of the vessel used in the analysis include information on its ice class as well as speed and fuel consumption during ice-free navigation and during navigation in ice. To carry out a simulation of initial planning, PANAMAXtype vessel data were used (Fig. 2.2). This type of vessel is equipped with a steel hull with no ice strengthening and was described in more detail in the previous work by the author (Pastusiak 2016f).

2.3 Fragmentary Procedures Within the Decision Support System The procedure for setting a date for the commencement of a voyage on the NSR makes use of statistical information (Chap. 7) and Russian long-term forecasts available on the NSR Administration website. Russian long-term forecasts concern the surface area of ice massifs, the extent of ice cover and types of existing ice navigation conditions (Chap. 4). The simulation has been carried out for the date when, according to Russian longterm forecasts, ice conditions begin to qualify as light; the statistical date for the beginning of ice-free transit navigation on the NSR (50% probability), determined by the author on the basis of his investigations and taking into account the limiting depths of 14.5 m; the same date delayed by the value of standard deviation (68.3% probability) and trend lines approximated by the second-degree polynomial function for 68.3 and 71.5% probability.

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Route selection procedure is based on a network of most probable (and recommended by the author) transit routes available in the periods when the NSR is opening and closing for ice-free navigation westwards and eastwards. A discussion of these transit routes is to be found in Chap. 6. During route selection, conclusions reached after analysing the width of the icefree zone in the peak of the navigation season have been taken into consideration (Sect. 6.2). The safe depth criterion was met already at the stage of plotting the network of recommended routes. The rule according to which regions where extreme ice drift is likely to happen should, as far as possible, be avoided (Chap. 4) has been partially followed due to delayed voyage commencement for vessels requiring greater water depths and will be taken into consideration during the stage of operational voyage planning. Plotted networks of recommended routes allow for statistical location of ice massifs and the degree to which the surface of the sea is covered in ice. These two factors will be considered again at the stage of operational voyage planning. The procedure for evaluating the quality of a selected route variant is based on the length of the route and the probability of it being open for ice-free navigation. The first criterion applied during route variant evaluation is route length, calculated on the basis of route variant accepted at the stage of voyage planning (Eq. 2.1). Dc =

n 

Di

(2.1)

i=1

where: Dc total length of route variant for route segments from 1 to n, Di length of route segment i from within the range of 1 to n. Another criterion used to evaluate a route variant is the possibility of encountering ice-free zones, that is to say, zones possible to navigate by vessels with steel hulls and no ice strengthening. Uncertainty involved in long-term planning will be dealt with by means of probability theory. Uncertain parameters will be modelled with the help of probability distribution. It has been assumed that factors affecting the outcome of a voyage, i.e. achieving or failing to achieve its main goal, are mutually independent. They include the probability of an event affecting the availability of the route for ice-free navigation (Z A ), which depends on the geographical course of route variant, and the probability of the NSR being available for ice-free navigation (Z B ), which depends on the date assumed as the time when the NSR becomes available for ice-free transit navigation. The Z A event is a probability function of the route’s availability for ice-free navigation, which depends on the geographical course of the route. Based on statistical information for the years 2008–2018, route segments have been selected so as to reflect the geographical course according to which ice cover recedes and then builds up again to close the area for navigation (Chap. 6). Particular route segments have been described in terms of length and the probability of their present geographical

2.3 Fragmentary Procedures Within the Decision Support System

37

course being repeated in the future. Based on the length of a segment, in relation to the total length of a particular route variant, the importance of the segment has been specified. The probability of the route being available for navigation has been expressed by means of an Eq. (2.2). PA (Z A ) =

 n   Di · Pi Dc i=1

(2.2)

where: PA probability of route variant being available for ice-free navigation, taking into account geographical course of route variant (%), Z A event in which a transit ice-free corridor forms on the NSR, Di length of route segment i from within the range of 1 to n, Pi probability of route segment i being available for ice-free navigation (%), Dc total length of route variant for route segments from 1 to n. The Z B event is a probability function of the route’s availability for ice-free navigation, which depends on the date of voyage commencement. The trend lines approximated by the second-degree polynomial function determine the probability of the route being available for ice-free navigation (PB (Z B )) on a specified day of the year (of the Julian calendar) for the date when a corridor enabling ice-free navigation opens in the western and eastern parts of the NSR (see Chap. 7, Fig. 7.6). The probability of independent events taking place is the product of combined probability of each of the events and is calculated with the following Eq. (2.3): PC (Z A , Z B ) = PA (Z A ) · PB (Z B )

(2.3)

where: PC probability of route variant being available for ice-free navigation, taking into account geographical course of route variant and ice-free transit zone formation date (%), PA probability of route variant being available for ice-free navigation, taking into account geographical course of route variant (%), Z A event in which an ice-free transit zone forms on the NSR, taking into account geographical course of route variant, PB probability of route variant being available for ice-free navigation, taking into account ice-free transit corridor formation date (%), Z B event in which an ice-free transit zone forms on the NSR, taking into account date on the Julian calendar. Information on the combined probability (Pc ) of ice-free conditions occurring along a given route variant, the length of the route variant, and the safe speed of the vessel, will help to make decisions regarding the selection of route variant for further analysis.

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The procedure for calculating voyage duration and its completion date makes use of Coordinated Universal Time (UCT/GMT) and involves determining the amount of time needed to cover particular route segments of the selected route variant. Data regarding the length of the segments and the speed of the vessel navigating among them are used to calculate the average voyage duration (Eqs. 2.4 and 2.5) and voyage completion date. Tc =

n 

Ti

(2.4)

i=1

Ti =

Di Vi

(2.5)

where: Tc Ti Di Vi

total duration of voyage variant (days), voyage duration for route segment i from within the range of 1 to n, length of route segment i from within the range of 1 to n, vessel speed on route segment i from within the range of 1 to n.

The procedure for calculating the completion date of the voyage on the NSR concerns its final completion, which is to say, the end of vessel charter. To calculate the completion date of the voyage, the following information must be considered: voyage commencement date (Murmansk), time needed to cross the NSR, time needed to complete cargo transfer operations in the port of call (Provideniya), time needed to cross the NSR in the other direction and time needed to complete cargo transfer operations in the port of destination (Murmansk). The procedure adopted to calculate voyage cost makes use of an algorithm which takes into account the cost of fuel and vessel charter, and which may be illustrated by means of the following Eq. (2.6): KT = K F + Kc

(2.6)

where: K T total voyage cost (USD), K F cost of fuel necessary to complete selected voyage variant (USD), K c cost of vessel charter for the time necessary to complete selected voyage variant (USD). Fuel cost, which depends on the fuel consumption rate determined by vessel speed and navigational conditions, can be calculated with the use of the following Eq. (2.7): KF =

n  i=1

(Ji · Ti )

(2.7)

2.3 Fragmentary Procedures Within the Decision Support System

39

where: K F cost of fuel necessary to complete selected voyage variant (USD), J i daily fuel consumption determined by vessel speed on route segment i (ton/day), T i voyage duration for route segment i from within the range of 1 to n. Total vessel charter cost, which depends on voyage duration (calculated pro rata in days, within an accuracy of 0.1 day) and daily charter rate, has been described with the following Eq. (2.8): K c = C p · Tc

(2.8)

where: K c vessel charter cost for the period necessary to complete selected voyage variant (USD), C p daily vessel charter rate (USD/day), T c total voyage duration (days). The above procedures and equations have been included in the initial planning diagram illustrated in Fig. 2.1. Principles which should be followed when planning navigation in ice and limitations inherent in the use of navigational equipment have already been discussed (IMO 2000; Jurdzi´nski 2000; Wi´sniewski and Drozd 2000; IMO 2006; Legland et al. 2006; IMO 2008b, 2009). Vessel safety and planning a voyage in ice-covered areas have been considered from the point of view of navigational equipment, collecting information about weather and ice conditions, limitations imposed by the type of cargo and strength of the hull, ability to navigate through ice with specific parameters, vessel speed in ice, preparation of the crew, etc. A factor which has not been considered in relation to planning a voyage in ice, however, is vessel autonomy. As a result, the present work will focus only on this particular, additional aspect of voyage planning. Vessel autonomy refers to its ability to navigate in ice-covered areas within a specified period of time (and with a specified speed when moving through ice) and with an appropriate supply of fuel, oils, freshwater and food, including emergency stock to be used in case of unexpected delays in reaching places where the vessel can resupply. Russian vessels regularly navigating in ice-covered regions of the NSR carry large reserves of consumable resources, which make it possible for a vessel to remain at sea for several months without the need to resupply (Pastusiak 2016i). Already the Norilsky Nickel-type vessels were equipped with fuel tanks able to hold much more fuel than earlier Norilsk-type vessels. Due to the occurrence of unfavourable ice conditions, especially those related to ice compaction, vessels and icebreakers navigating along the NSR may become beset in ice for as long as a month (Arikaynen 1990). In ice-free areas, standard operational practice requires emergency stock to be 3–5 times the regular daily consumption, depending on the expected voyage duration and delays caused by potentially unfavourable weather conditions.

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Because logistic infrastructure along the Northern Sea Route is not well developed (Kitagawa 2001; Pastusiak 2016i), there are not many ports where vessels navigating in the area can resupply. According to previous studies by the author (Pastusiak 2016i), ports which might be taken into consideration include the port of Murmansk and the port of Provideniya. The largest distance between the port of Murmansk and a potential navigational obstacle which may force a vessel to turn back to Murmansk (located near Wrangel Island) comes to 2598.3 NM, if calculated along the most probable route. For the same route, the largest distance between the port of Provideniya and a potential navigational obstacle which may force a vessel to turn back to Provideniya (located near Vilkitsky Strait) comes to 1852.4 NM. It has been assumed that, in order to ensure voyage safety, this latter value must be taken into account. After considering the standard size of emergency stock to be used in case of unforeseen circumstances (5 days of sea voyage), the author has come up with the following Eq. (2.9) to calculate the consumable resources reserve coefficient W RR : WRR =

DNSR Vle

+

Dz + Vle DNSR Vle

tmin

(2.9)

where: W RR

consumable resources reserve coefficient, assuming standard operational speed on the NSR for vessels without ice strengthening, distance between the two most distant ports of the NSR (calculated along the most probable route) (NM), distance between potential navigational obstacle requiring a vessel to turn back and the nearest supply port on the NSR (NM), extra time margin, provided by the minimum amount of supplies, within which a vessel must call at a port; the assumed value is 5 days or 96 h (hours), statistical operational speed on the NSR; based on Sect. 5.3.2.2 (Table 5.2); the maximum acceptable speed for vessels without ice strengthening is assumed to be 12 knots (kn).

DNSR DZ t min V le

The amount of fuel which a vessel must carry at the beginning of the voyage can be calculated with the use of Eqs. (2.10) and (2.11). PRR = PF · WRR PF =

n 

(Ti · Ji · k)

(2.10) (2.11)

i=1

where: PRR

the amount of fuel necessary for safe voyage completion, taking into account consumable resources reserve coefficient (t),

2.3 Fragmentary Procedures Within the Decision Support System

PF W RR Ti Ji K

41

overall expected fuel consumption as a sum total of fuel consumption on particular route segments (t), consumable resources reserve coefficient, assuming standard operational speed on the NSR for vessels without ice strengthening, voyage duration for route segment i from within the range of 1 to n, daily fuel consumption determined by vessel speed on route segment i (ton/day), correction coefficient for additional fuel consumption in ice-covered areas; outside ice-covered areas k = 1.0, close to ice-covered areas k = 1.08, in ice-covered areas k = 1.24 (Pastusiak 2016f).

This procedure for calculating the consumable resources reserve coefficient makes it possible to determine the amount of supplies necessary for a vessel to successfully complete its voyage in ice-covered areas of the NSR, or—in other words—the amount of supplies that would ensure vessel autonomy during a voyage between the two most distant ports of the NSR. The task of the decision support module for the evaluation of results is to find out if results obtained for a given voyage plan variant meet the initial assumptions and if there is an option or a reason to make another voyage plan. A decision-maker must consider if a potentially different route variant exists or if the obtained evaluation of the probability of successful voyage completion is sufficiently unequivocal. If requirements involved in achieving voyage goals make it impossible to find a satisfactory route variant or if a satisfactory route is altogether impossible to find, the adopted criteria have to be modified, which will involve a reduction in the value of quality coefficient. This will, in turn, make it necessary to accept a higher probability of voyage goals failing to be achieved and higher overall voyage cost. In such a situation, it may be decided that the price for the offered transport services should be higher or that the plan to use a vessel without ice strengthening for maritime transport within the considered navigation season should be altogether abandoned.

2.4 Selected Simulation Models of Transit Voyages on the NSR Developed in the Years 1996–2016 Since 1994, countries other than Russia have been showing a growing interest in the possibility of using the Northern Sea Route as an alternative to traditional shipping lanes connecting Europe with ports of the Far East via the Suez or Panama Canals. A lot of attention was given to works by Mulherin et al. (1996), Kitagawa (2001), Smith and Stephenson (2013), Nam et al. (2013), Matsuzawa et al. (2015) and Pastusiak (2016i), which—just like the present text—all dealt with transit voyages from Europe to ports of the Far East via the Northern Sea Route. The works did not address the issue of administrative limitations related to the course of voyage routes. The above-mentioned works focus on vessels with high ice classes, such as ULA (Arc7), and only Smith and Stephenson (2013) concern themselves also with vessels

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without ice strengthening. The present work, on the other hand, deals mainly with vessels without ice strengthening. The oldest available work (Mulherin et al. 1996) discusses vessels with relatively low draft (of about 10 m) which enabled them to navigate through the Laptev Strait, lying close to the continental coast in the archipelago of New Siberian Islands. Today, 10-m draft can be found in smaller merchant vessels, such as HANDYSIZE. Larger vessel, which—at the same time—sit deeper in water, must navigate through the Sannikov Strait, which is deep enough for vessels with 12-m draft, such as HANDYMAX and PANAMAX. Kitagawa (2001) discusses navigation involving HANDYSIZE-type vessels along coastal routes and through the Laptev Strait as well as that involving vessels with deeper draft, such as HANDYMAX. Smith and Stephenson (2013) and Nam et al. (2013) discuss vessels with both low and deep draft. Publications by Matsuzawa et al. (2015) and Pastusiak (2016f), as well as the present work, deal with PANAMAX-type vessels, with deeper draft. A growing interest in large vessels is due to greater economic efficiency of maritime transport operations involving this type of vessels. At the same time, however, increasing size goes hand in hand with deeper draft. This stirs new interest in navigation away from the coast of the continent, north of particular archipelagos or the islands of Novaya Zemlya, Severnaya Zemlya, New Siberian Islands and Wrangel Island. Navigation far from the coast of the continent involves severe ice conditions and requires the use of vessels with high ice classes, which are more expensive to construct and operate than traditional vessels with no ice strengthening. Only the present work focuses on navigation in ice-free areas, regardless of their distance from the continental coast. Voyage simulations were done for the month characterized by the lightest ice conditions (Smith and Stephenson 2013; Matsuzawa et al. 2015; Pastusiak 2016i), for the summer navigation season (Mulherin et al. 1996), for average combined summer and winter values with the interpolation of intermediate values (Nam et al. 2013), and even for the entire year (Kitagawa 2001). In the present work, periods characterized by the lightest ice conditions are taken into account. Mulherin et al. (1996) considers statistical ice navigation conditions with the use of a probability density function, subsequently transformed into a cumulative distribution function. Statistical data were compiled on the basis of multiyear observations performed by Russians and should now be regarded as relatively old. The Monte Carlo simulation of environmental conditions (Kitagawa 2001) dealt with particular route segments as if they were unrelated. As a result, environmental conditions associated with subsequent route segments may have been totally different and, as such, unlike real conditions encountered along the route. The simulation of environmental conditions used by Kitagawa (2001) assigned average statistical conditions for a given month to individual segments of the route. As a result, the values were highly averaged and did not reflect significant short-term changes in the conditions of maritime transport operations. Smith and Stephenson (2013) used static spatial distribution of ice conditions, determined with the help of models of selected representative climate change pathways. The models did not take into account yearto-year and current dynamic changes in ice conditions. The simulation model adopted

2.4 Selected Simulation Models of Transit Voyages …

43

by Nam et al. (2013) was based on data averaged over a longer period of time. It required input data to be supplemented with information on the current hydrometeorological conditions in order to ensure more precise simulation results. Matsuzawa et al. (2015) based their simulations on a single map illustrating already-known ice conditions which occurred in September 2013. Ice conditions were averaged for route segments which differed, in terms of longitude, by 10°. Selected routes were characterized by different ice conditions. The differences included high probability of encountering ice-free zones, expected ice concentration below 30% and expected ice concentration below 60%. In this work, voyage simulation is based on ice condition forecasts for a given navigation season, statistical data and the probability of ice-free transit zone formation for historical data collected in the years 2008–2018 and characterized by a significant reduction in the extent of ice cover in the Arctic. The author paid the attention to two publications from last years and relating the optimization in transportation. One of them is not connected with navigation in ice but the multicriterial optimization of the selection of routes for voyage of tanker vessels (Guze et al. 2017). The most important criteria of optimization were time and safety of crew, vessel and natural environment. The research is based on the analysis of experts. It was noticed that settlement of the optimum solution was not the easy question. Second of these publications is related to modelling and optimization of land transport nets in aspect of their reliability (Guze 2019). Research of forwarding nets (including sections, joining between oneself in nodal points) concerned optimization of appointing substitutionary variants of routes in situations, when random chosen nodal point or section of the route found inaccessible during executing the voyage (transport tasks). Single criterial and multicriterial optimization were applied with the use of weights in graphs.

2.5 Conclusions The model of the initial voyage planning decision support system described above takes into account a considerable number of input data characterized by a high degree of unpredictability. When fed into the system, the data are assessed according to formalized criteria and used to make calculations in numerous fragmentary procedures. The results, which concern voyage scheduling and the probability of its goal being achieved, are supposed to be verified by the user in the decision support module. Decisions which must be made concern mainly the beginning and end dates of the period when the NSR is open for navigation by vessels without ice strengthening, the course and length of the route, vessel’s speed in ice, and its capability to navigate through ice. This information makes it possible to determine voyage duration and fuel consumption, which constitute the main components of the total voyage cost (vessel charter and fuel cost). If the cost of shipping and the intended amount of cargo are also known, it is possible to determine approximate economic results of the voyage.

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The probability of achieving all voyage goals, which includes the probability of the route being reused within a single summer navigation season and the probability of an ice-free transit zone forming along the entire length of the NSR on particular days of the year, takes into account the safety of maritime transport in ice-covered and polar regions. The main threat to navigation is related to the spatial and temporal variability of ice conditions. They may require a detour from the planned route, an extension of the total voyage duration, or icebreaker assistance. In extreme cases, they may create an ice barrier impossible to pass despite icebreaker assistance and so force a vessel to turn back and return to the port of departure. Thus presented, the probability of achieving voyage goals may be seen as an alternative way of presenting the probability of incurring additional costs (losses), which may lead to the actual economic result of the voyage being different to what has been expected. A comparison between the present model of initial voyage planning system (voyage route scheduling) and other, older voyage simulation models and options for crossing the NSR, developed in the years 1996–2015, indicates a different application of the model suggested by the author. The aim of simulation models presented by Mulherin et al. (1996), Kitagawa (2001), Smith and Stephenson (2013), Nam et al. (2013) and Matsuzawa et al. (2015), is to determine the economic efficiency of specified vessels with given ice classes (capability to navigate through ice while maintaining a specified speed), to determine optimum transit routes on the NSR or optimum vessel types to use in the future for maritime transport on the NSR. The voyage simulation decision support model presented in this work is created to help develop voyage route scheduling, which is to say, make it possible to determine commencement and completion dates of subsequent transit voyages between 1 and 6 months ahead of time, along with accessing the probability of achieving the economic goal of the voyage. The plan applies to PANAMAX-type vessels, characterized by a deeper draft than HANDYSIZE- and HANDYMAX-type vessels as well as by higher economic efficiency of voyages. Currently, this particular vessel size is most commonly selected when planning navigation on the NSR. The aim of the study described in the work is to determine the economic efficiency of vessels lacking ice strengthening, which are readily available on the freight market, when used in the extremely short period during which an ice-free transit zone exists along the entire length of the Northern Sea Route. The reason behind this course of study is to find a market niche for the development of maritime transport and the use of vessels with no ice strengthening, which is readily available and relatively cheap to construct and operate.

References

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References Originally Published (Title in Russian, Polish or German) with English Title Translations Arikaynen AI (1990) Navigation in the Arctic ice [in Russian] (Cydoxodctvo vo ldax Apktiki). Transport, Moscov, p 247 Guze S (2019) Modelling and optimization of transport nets in aspect of their reliability and sensibility [in Polish] (Modelowanie i optymalizacja sieci transportowych w aspekcie ich niezawodno´sci i wra˙zliwo´sci). Maritime University of Szczecin Press, p 187 Guze S, Neumann T, Wilczy´nski P (2017) Multi-criteria optimisation of liquid cargo transport according to linguistic approach to the route selection task. Pol Marit Res S1 (93) 24:89–96 IMO (2000) Resolution A.893(21), Adopted on 25 November 1999, Guidance for voyage planning. Annex, Draft guidance for voyage planning. Assembly 21st session, Agenda item 9, A 2/Res.893, January–February 2000, p 5 IMO (2006) Enhanced contingency planning guidance for passenger ships operating in areas remote from SAR facilities. IMO MSC. 1/Circ. 1184, p 5 IMO (2008b) Guidance on voyage planning for passenger ships operating in remote areas. IMO A 25/Res.999, p 4 IMO (2009) Report of the Maritime Safety Committee on its eighty-sixth session. IMO MSC 86/26/Add. 2, Annex 18, Assembly Resolution, Adoption of the guidelines for ships operating in polar waters, p 33 Jurdzi´nski M (2000) Planning the navigation in ice [in Polish] (Planowanie nawigacji w lodach). Wy˙zsza Szkoła Morska, Gdynia, p 192 Khvochtchinski NI, Batskikh YUM (1998) The Northern Sea Route as an element of the ICZM system in the Arctic: problems and perspectives. Ocean Coast Manag 41:161–173 (Elsevier) Kitagawa H (2001) The Northern Sea Route. The shortest sea route linking East Asia and Europe. Ship & Ocean Foundation, Tokyo, p 238 Legland E, Conachev R, Wang G, Baker C (2006) Winterization guidelines for LNG/CNG carriers in arctic environments. ABS Technical Papers, pp 305–316 Matsuzawa T, Sogihara N, Tsujimoto M, Uto S (2015) NSR transit simulations by the vessel performance simulator “VESTA”. Part 1, Speed reduction and fuel oil consumption in the summer transit along NSR. In: Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Port and Ocean Engineering under Arctic Conditions, Trondheim, p 12 Mulherin ND, Eppler DT, Proshutinsky TO, Proshutinsky AYu, Farmer LD, Smith OP (1996) Development and results of a Northern Sea Route Transit Model. CRREL Report 96–5, US Army Corps of Engineers, p 104 Nam J-H, Park I, Lee HJ, Kwon MO, Choi K, Seo Y-K (2013) Simulation of optimal arctic routes using a numerical sea ice model based on an ice-coupled ocean circulation method. Int J Naval Archit Ocean Eng 5:210–226. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/IJNAOE-2013-0128 Pastusiak T (2016f) Influence of hydro-meteorological conditions on operational parameters of PANAMAX size vessels [in Polish] (Wpływ warunków hydrometeorologicznych na parametry eksploatacyjne statków typu PANAMAX). Prace Wydziału Nawigacyjnego Akademii Morskiej w Gdyni, No. 31:139–151 Pastusiak T (2016h) Principles of vessel route planning in ice on the Northern Sea Route. TRANSNAV—Int J Mar Navigat Saf Sea Transp 4:587–592 Pastusiak T (2016i) The Northern Sea Route as a shipping lane. Expectations and Reality. Springer International Publishing AG, Switzerland, p 247 Pastusiak T (2016j) The time window for vessels without ice strengthening on the Northern Sea Route. Ann Navig 23:103–119 Pastusiak T (2018b) Evaluation Criteria and Approach to Voyage Planning in Ice. Verification on the Example of the German Ship Activity During the Second World. Ann Navig 25/2018:5–26

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Smith LC, Stephenson SS (2013) New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury. PNAS, 26, 110(13):E1191–E1195 ˙ Wi´sniewski B, Drozd A (2000) Shipping in Canadian waters [in Polish] (Zegluga na wodach kanadyjskich). Wy˙zsza Szkoła Morska w Szczecinie, Szczecin, p 174

Internet References Frolov IE, Gudkovich ZM, Karklin VP, Smolyanitsky VM, Klyachkin SV, Frolov SV (2015) Part 10. Sea ice. [in Russian] (Glava 10. Mopcko led). http://docplayer.ru/docview/17/76851/# file=/storage/17/76851/76851.pdf. Accessed 15.08.2016 Geoserver ESIMO. http://www.aari.ru/projects/ecimo/index.php?im=104. Accessed 03 Sept 2013 (actually not available) NATICE (2019) MIZ ice concentration maps in ESRI Shape and KMZ format. U.S. National Ice Center, http://www.natice.noaa.gov/Main_Products.htm. Accessed 19 Jan 2019

Part II

Dangerous Phenomena and Hazards for Navigation

Chapter 3

Dangerous Hydrometeorological Phenomena Occurring on the NSR

Abstract This chapter discusses a number of hydrometeorological phenomena affecting safety of navigation on the NSR. Distinguished phenomena are generally not associated with ice formations. Ice formations include ice massifs and fast ice adjacent to the land. Analysis of phenomena that are not directly related to ice formations, such as very strong winds and gusts of wind, fog, hull adhesion by new ice and young ice, ice accretion on vessels constructions of offshore terminals and changes in sea level indicated that they do not pose danger to vessels navigating in transit through the Northern Sea Route. Especially when changing of vessel speed, one can improve safety of vessel. There is also no need to change route designated at initial voyage planning. Thus, the above-mentioned phenomena do not concern the subject of research undertaken at the work. On the other hand, phenomena related to occurrence of ice formations, such as ice fields and patches of multiyear ice, large anomalies of direction, speed, location or area of close ice, large anomalies of ice massifs area, ice strips and fragmented highly hummocked ice of high horizontal dimensions, thickness and hummocking making it difficult to overcome by vessels. Grounded hummock and intensive ice drift including the phenomenon of “ice rivers” should be included to dangers for shipping occurring in zones of ice formations and their surroundings, such as ice massifs and fast ice. They represent a hazard to navigation and obstacle to transit traffic of vessels and even icebreakers. Therefore, these phenomena will be examined from the point of view of safety of maritime transport and difficulties for vessel’s voyage. Keywords Northern Sea Route · Arctic · Dangerous phenomena at sea · Ice formations · Ice massifs · Ice cover · Forms of ice cover · Safety of sea transport There is a range of hydrometeorological phenomena occurring on the Northern Sea Route, which affect, to a greater or lesser extent, the ability of merchant vessels to complete transit voyages along the route. This study made it possible to determine potential navigational difficulties caused by these phenomena. The main adopted criterion was the impact of particular phenomena on the vessel’s ability to navigate through ice and to safely reach its port of destination. It was according to this criterion that phenomena playing a crucial role in the process of initial transit voyage planning were selected. © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 T. Pastusiak, Voyages on the Northern Sea Route, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-25490-2_3

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Thus, selected hydrometeorological conditions underwent a further, more detailed analysis. Close attention was given to the first successful transit voyage completed by a vessel within a single navigation season in 1940 (Brennecke 2001; Eyssen 2002) and relatively well described in subject literature. During the voyage, a key role was played by ice conditions, with particular emphasis on the location of ice formations, i.e. sections of the NSR where, every year, the sea surface is covered with concentrated ice of considerable thickness (Karelin et al. 1946; Smirnov 1989; Arikaynen 1990; GUNiO 1996; Kitagawa 2001; Chinoy 2007; Marchenko 2012; MFOC 2012; ABS 2013; OCIMF 2014; WMO 2014; Karklin et al. 2017; OCIMF 2017; ESIMO 2018b), the area of ice massifs and extent of ice cover. The present work determined dominating sets of hydrological conditions during the voyage of 1940, the course of the route, route segments requiring icebreaker assistance and hydrological conditions occurring over ten navigation seasons (in the years 1940–1949) which followed the first successful commercial transit voyage completed within a single navigation season. It was assumed that the analysis of those ice conditions which caused most serious difficulties in terms of completing the voyage and reaching the port of destination in the years 1940–1949, when crossing the NSR was more challenging than it is now, will be useful for the planning of maritime transport in modern times. The reason behind changes in ice conditions taking place between 1940 and the present is the progressing climate change, recorded since 1980, and reduction in the extent of ice cover in the Arctic, which accelerated at the turn of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries (Frolov et al. 2009, 2015; Pastusiak 2016i). Before 1980, ice conditions were more severe while vessels were smaller in size, equipped with weaker hulls and less powerful propulsion engines than modern vessels. As a result, hydrological phenomena caused greater difficulty than they do nowadays and were, therefore, easier to identify as potentially problematic. In the present work, attention was also paid to spatial and temporal relationships between hydrometeorological phenomena occurring during intensive ice drift. Along with ice compacting, ice drift was the main reason behind vessels sinking on the NSR. It is not yet known in much detail what causes intensive ice drift (Benzeman 2008, 2010; Mironov et al. 2010; Marchenko 2012), as a result of which it is hard to predict when and where the phenomenon is likely to occur. It was assumed that the above-mentioned analysis would make it possible to arrive at general conclusions, which should help in planning a voyage on the NSR, taking into account difficulties involved in navigating through ice on the way to the port of destination. A hypothesis was accepted, according to which it would be possible to formulate general rules to support initial planning of a voyage in ice-covered areas of the NSR between 6 and 3 months in advance. The purpose of these rules would be to improve the safety of maritime transport.

3.1 Hydrometeorological Phenomena Affecting the Safety …

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3.1 Hydrometeorological Phenomena Affecting the Safety of Navigation on the NSR When planning a voyage route through ice, it is necessary to consider such ice cover parameters as: ice concentration, ice age and thickness, the processes of ice compacting and hummocking, horizontal dimensions of ice floes, presence of snow on ice, the size of openings in ice, the stage of ice melt and ice decay, ice drift and the resulting characteristics of sea current and wind. Wind waves (seas) and swell do not occur in areas where ice concentration exceeds 30% (Mulherin 1996). In areas where ice concentration is between 0 and 30%, seas and swell can develop only partially. On their own, wind, waves and swell are not a hazard for large, modern vessels (Gordienko and Zaharyan 2004). All they cause is a relatively small reduction in vessel speed. It is possible to diminish the impact of waves on vessel speed and its pitch and roll by adjusting the course angle (Remez 1957; Wróbel 1978; Shchetinina et al. 1983; Maksimadzhi 1988; Gordienko and Zaharyan 2004; IMO 2007). The presence of ice brings about a much greater reduction in vessel speed. Sea ice is the main factor making it difficult to navigate in the Arctic seas (Arikaynen 1990; Mironov et al. 2010). The greatest impact on vessel speed and safety of navigation in ice is exerted by dangerous phenomena and ice formations. Ice formations are ice accumulations, such as ice massifs and fast ice attached to land, which occur every year in the same location. They were defined by Rosgidromet (2008) and Mironov et al. (2010). Navigational difficulties caused by the impact of waves and ice on a vessel may be determined by comparing vessel speed reduced due to waves (Holec and Tyma´nski 1973; Stehnovsky and Vasiliev 1976; Pastusiak 1991, 2016f), vessel speed and vessel course changed in order to reduce vessel pitch, roll and heave (Remez 1957; Wróbel 1978; Shchetinina et al. 1983; Maksimadzhi 1988; Gordienko and Zaharyan 2004) and vessel speed reduced due to the impact of various forms of ice (Dremlyug et al. 1965; Kashtelyan et al. 1968; Shapaev 1975; Ryvlin and Heysin 1980; Arikaynen and Tsubakov 1987; Maksimadzhi 1988; Gordienko and Dremlyug 1989; Arikaynen 1990; Smirnov et al. 1993; Jurdzi´nski 2000; Gordienko and Zaharyan 2004; Mironov et al. 2010; Ionov and Grumazov 2013; Pastusiak 2016i). Dangerous hydrometeorological and ice phenomena (Karelin et al. 1946; Gotsky 1961; Kudryavaya et al. 1974; Aksyutin 1979; Parnell 1986; Smirnov et al. 1993; GUNiO 1996, 1998a, b, 1999; Kitagawa 2001; Chinoy 2007; Gorbunov et al. 2007; Benzeman 2008, 2010; Rosgidromet 2008; UNiO 2009; House et al. 2010; Mironov et al. 2010; Marchenko 2012, 2013; MFOC 2012; ABS 2013; Inoue et al. 2015; Karklin et al. 2017; OCIMF 2017; ESIMO 2018c) make it necessary to find a route running outside of the areas where they occur. According to Mironov et al. (2010), Rosgidromet (2008) and ESIMO (2018c), dangerous phenomena are those phenomena which may constitute a hazard to human life or health, or cause substantial material losses, regardless of whether they occur separately or simultaneously. If several phenomena occur simultaneously, they will qualify as dangerous when, in terms of intensity, each one of them comes close to the threshold value, which qualifies it as a safety hazards (Rosgidromet 2008, Mironov et al. 2010). We deal

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with threshold values when the probability of a given phenomenon taking place is below 10%, or exceeds 80% of the standard deviation value of a given phenomenon, or when it meets a specified criterion or reaches a specified value which means potential risk to human life or health, or risk of material losses. Sometimes, such criteria are specified individually for particular regions of the Russian Arctic (Rosgidromet 2008; Mironov et al. 2010). Dangerous phenomena may affect port and cargo transfer infrastructure, towns located close to the sea coast or a river, economic activity on land, as well as vessels and icebreakers involved in coastal and transit navigation on the NSR (Rosgidromet 2008; Mironov et al. 2010). Below one can find a presentation of hydrological, meteorological and ice phenomena posing the greatest risk for vessels, icebreakers, ports, coastal localities and human activity in the Russian Arctic and their potential consequences (Karelin et al. 1946; Gotsky 1961; Aksyutin 1979; Parnell 1986; Smirnov et al. 1993; GUNiO 1996, 1998a, b, 1999; Kitagawa 2001; Chinoy 2007; Gorbunov et al. 2007; Benzeman 2008, 2010; UNiO 2009; House et al. 2010; Mironov et al. 2010; Marchenko 2012, 2013; MFOC 2012; ABS 2013; Inoue et al. 2015; Karklin et al. 2017; OCIMF 2017; ESIMO 2018c).

3.2 Description of Hydrometeorological Phenomena Affecting Navigation Safety on the NSR Hydrometeorological phenomena occurring within the boundaries of seas crossed by the NSR affect, to a greater or lesser extent, maritime transport operations conducted in the area. The phenomena seldom occur in isolation. The impact of particular phenomena on navigation frequently depends on other hydrological and meteorological phenomena occurring at the same time, as a result of which it is difficult to classify these phenomena according to common features they display. The analysis of features demonstrated by particular phenomena made it possible to classify them in a manner relevant for navigation on the NSR. This classification method is related to navigation conducted within areas where ice formations occur or outside of them.

3.2.1 Phenomena Related to Ice Formations 3.2.1.1

Ice Forms of Considerable Vertical and Horizontal Dimensions

The existence of multiyear and two-year ice fields and patches is closely related to ice massifs. Horizontal dimensions of ice floes encountered in areas where multiyear and two-year ice appears exceed 100 m and their thickness may exceed 2 m. This sort of ice may damage the hull as well as propulsion and steering gear mechanisms of vessels, including icebreakers.

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53

During navigation in ice, strong ice compacting is especially dangerous, as it may seriously damage the hull of a vessel or even an icebreaker. As a result of wind, level ice starts to drift and, whenever it comes across obstacles which prevent its horizontal movement, it compacts, deforms and bends. Next, broken ice floes raft, which leads to the formation of ice ridges and hummocks. When a vessel follows an icebreaker along a canal in ice, ice patches and broken hummocked ice with horizontal dimensions exceeding 20 m, thickness of over 0.3 m and hummocking exceeding second degree may damage the vessel’s hull and its propulsion or steering gear mechanism. Piled ice floes (floebergs) are large floebits made up of an ice hummock or several ice hummocks frozen into a single whole, which may be 2–5 m high over the surface of water. This sort of ice may damage the hull as well as propulsion and steering gear mechanisms of vessels and icebreakers. Ice hummocks of large vertical dimensions may run aground. A collision with such a hummock usually leads to hull damage of vessels and icebreakers. Such an ice form is easy to detect during the day, when visibility is good, which is why collisions are much more common during periods of reduced visibility. Extensive zones of concentrated, deformed and broken ice floes, which occur in the vicinity of hydrotechnical objects at the depth of less than 20 m and are between 100 and 5000 m wide, pose difficulties for vessels mooring or manoeuvring close to the coast, quays or terminals. Just like a grounded ice hummocks, this type of ice may reach the bottom if it accumulates close to fast ice. It may cause emergency situations on tankers and auxiliary vessels during cargo transfer operations taking place close to terminals. Moreover, rapid changes in the direction of ice drift close to terminals lying further away from the coast may also lead to emergency situations. Ice drift direction may change up to 90° within as little as three hours, and there is a risk that the necessary reorganization of cargo transfer operations on the vessel and within the terminal, as well as reorganization regarding mooring protection, may take longer than changes in ice conditions.

3.2.1.2

Large Anomalies in Ice Cover and the Area of Ice Massifs

The main obstacle for navigation in the Russian Arctic is the ice cover, which can be found there for most of the year (Arikaynen 1990; Mironov et al. 2010). Every summer season, maritime shipping routes crossing the area become partially, or even totally, free of ice for 3–5 months. Due to the existence of ice drift and the fact that close ice (concentration of 70–100%), whose presence may be related to ice formations, moves towards coastal regions, ice conditions on maritime shipping routes may rapidly become severe or extremely severe. In such conditions, navigation becomes a complex and dangerous process, which may lead to vessel damage or even vessel loss. As a result, in some cases, navigation and other activity at sea are brought to a halt. The greatest risk for navigation appears when, under relatively stable ice conditions (usually classifiable as heavy), hard to pass through, hummocked and close ice of concentration of 70–100% unexpectedly occurs on shipping routes (Mironov

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et al. 2010). Such a phenomenon may be referred to as ice moving down to lower latitudes. The movement of ice from the north to lower latitudes occurs very rapidly, taking between 12 h and a few days, and causes a considerable deterioration in ice conditions on the NSR. Average ice conditions quickly become complex. Vessels find themselves surrounded by ice which is difficult to pass through, beset in ice or nipped, and their hulls are subjected to compacting. In such cases, they are unable to move independently and are forced to drift along with the ice. Due to the number of affected vessels, the available icebreakers are unable to offer assistance to all who need it at the same time. For this reason, some vessels may drift onto shallows or rocks, suffer damage or even sink (Benzeman 2010; Marchenko 2012). Complex ice conditions are most commonly encountered at the beginning of the navigation season, namely in July. Ice conditions on the north-western part of the Kara Sea, western part of the Laptev Sea and eastern part of the East Siberian Sea remain the longest difficult to pass by a vessel. The Severnaya Zemlya Ice Massif often contains old, second-year and first-year ice, which is particularly difficult to pass through and dangerous for navigation. Sudden occurrence of ice coming from ice massifs and constituting an obstacle for navigation happens as a result of intensive southward drift of ice massifs (Pastusiak and Styszynska 2013). A deterioration in ice conditions may occur within a time period ranging from 12 h to a few days and is not always possible to predict. The probability of ice moving down to lower latitudes is directly proportional to the severity of ice conditions during the summer season and to the proximity of close ice to shipping routes. The phenomenon is relatively rare and usually occurs in August and September. It is most likely to occur (probability of 1–6%) in the region of Wrangel Island, in the eastern part of the East Siberian Sea (Ayon Ice Massif) and in the south-western part of the Chukchi Sea (Wrangel Ice Massif). At this time of year, the relative area of the Ayon Ice Massif exceeds 80% and that of the Wrangel Ice Massif—30%. In the period from the beginning of August to mid-September, the phenomenon is slightly less likely to occur (probability of 1–6%) in the region of Severnaya Zemlya, in the north-western part of the Kara Sea (Northern Kara and Severnaya Zemlya Ice Massifs) and the western part of the Laptev Sea (Taymyr Ice Massif). It is least likely to happen (probability of 0–1%) in the south-western part of the Kara Sea (Novaya Zemlya Ice Massif) and in the vicinity of the Kara Gates Strait and Yugorsky Shar Strait. It must be stressed that the sheer fact that difficult or complex ice conditions, or highly concentrated ice, can be found in a given area of the NSR does not, on its own, cause a hazard, as the NSR Administration can adjust the navigation schedule and routes, as well as the use of icebreakers, to the situation. What causes a hazard is an unexpected occurrence of this sort of ice on shipping routes, when icebreakers cannot help all vessel unable to pass through the ice moving down from the north to lower latitudes. The above analysis indicates that the probability of encountering ice which may prove hard for vessels to pass through is the highest in those areas of the NSR where ice massifs lie close to shipping routes, especially when ice con-

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55

ditions are severe and winds are forecast to blow towards the shore for up to 5 days. Short-term forecasts of ice conditions are available on the NSR Administration website (http://nsra.ru/ru/navigatsionnaya_i_gidrometinformatsiya/types_ ice_conditions.html. Accessed 21.08.2017). It is possible to predict the movement of ice to lower latitudes on the basis of long-term forecasts of ice conditions issued up to 15–30 days in advance, available on the ESIMO project website (http://nsra.ru/ru/navigatsionnaya_i_gidrometinformatsiya/dolgosrochnie_ prognozi.html. Accessed 21.08.2017), forecasts indicating the location of ice edges which may be potentially difficult to cross, and mid- and short-term forecasts (issued for the period between 1 and 5 days) which make it possible to determine with 80–85% probability the boundaries of different ice concentrations, the speed of ice drift, and areas affected by the processes of ice compacting or diverging, available on the ESIMO project website (http://ocean8x.aari.nw.ru/index.php?id=600&model=2. Accessed 20.02.2018). However, there is always a probability (15–20%) that real ice conditions will not be in line with ice forecasts, and this must be taken into account during route planning.

3.2.1.3

Isolated Ice Forms

Icebergs, bergy bits and growlers, grounded hummocks and piled ice floes (floebergs) are characterized by several common features, which set them apart from other dangerous hydrological phenomena. Icebergs, bergy bits, growlers and ice islands count among ice forms of land origin (USNHO 1950; HON 1979; Parnell 1986; Mironov et al. 2010; UKHO 2015). They may be of various shapes (HON 1979; Parnell 1986; UKHO 2015). Icebergs form as a result of glacier calving, which is a process by which blocks of ice break off the front of tidewater glaciers (USNHO 1950; HON 1979; Parnell 1986; Gordienko and Zaharyan 2004; UKHO 2015). Glaciers develop due to the accumulation of ice formed as a result of atmospheric precipitation over land (USNHO 1950; Jania 1997; Gordienko and Zaharyan 2004). Ice islands are a specific form of icebergs broken off a shelf glacier. They have a flat top and much larger dimensions than other forms of floating ice. Floebergs, floebits and grounded hummocks are ice forms of sea origin (USNHO 1950; Parnell 1986). The process of ice deformation usually follows a similar sequence of events (Karelin et al. 1946; USNHO 1950; Girjatowicz 1983; WMO 2017). If level ice drifting due to wind comes across an obstacle (shallows, rocks, land) which prevents the ice from moving freely, it undergoes the process of compacting. Due to pressure produced by more ice pushing from the outside, ice surface deforms and bends, and ice floes raft, which is to say, push over and under one another. As a result of continued pressure exerted by adjacent ice, ice ridges, formed through the process of rafting, pile up. Due to continued ice pressure, piled ice floes spill over the ridge, thus forming chaotic ice hummocks. The maximum draft of rafted and hummocked ice may be three to six and, in some cases, ten times greater than its height above the sea surface. Because rafted ice, ice ridges and hummocks can

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locally have considerable thickness, they constitute a serious challenge and a grave risk for navigation (Karelin et al. 1946; USNHO 1950; Girjatowicz 1983; WMO 2017). The maximum height above the sea level reached by the above-mentioned ice forms ranges from 0 to 136 m, with the values being 5–136 m for icebergs, 1–5 m for bergy bits, 0–1 m for growlers, 5 m for ice island (in the Arctic), 5 m for floebergs, 1–2 m for floebits and 6–15 m for grounded hummocks (USNHO 1950; HON 1979; Parnell 1986; Mironov et al. 2010; WMO 2014; UKHO 2015). At the same time, the underwater parts of the above-mentioned ice forms can reach deep into the sea, with the values being 200 m for icebergs, 45 m for bergy bits, 9 m for growlers, 15–55 m for ice island (in the Arctic), 50 m for floebergs, 5 m for floebits and 0.4–40 m for grounded hummocks (Karelin et al. 1946; HON 1979; Mironov et al. 2010; WMO 2014; UKHO 2015). Maximum horizontal dimensions of these ice forms range from 15 m to 25 NM, with the values being 15–517 m for icebergs, 15–20 m for bergy bits, 5 m for growlers, 50 m to 25 NM for ice islands (in the Arctic), 15 m for floebergs, 10 m for floebits and 4–1200 m for grounded hummocks found in clusters (USNHO 1950; HON 1979; Parnell 1986; Mironov et al. 2010; WMO 2014; UKHO 2015). The abovementioned dimensions should be treated as approximations, as ice forms occurring in particular seas may display local characteristics in this respect (HON 1979; Parnell 1986; Mironov et al. 2010). Icebergs with considerable dimensions above water surface are possible to detect visually by experienced navigators, on clear nights with no moonlight, from a distance of up to 1–2 NM (USNHO 1950; HON 1979; UKHO 2015). On cloudy nights, on the other hand, smaller ice forms, such as bergy bits, growlers and icebergs, may remain undetected (USNHO 1950; HON 1979; Parnell 1986; UKHO 2015). As long as the sea is calm, vessel radars are able to detect all forms of ice. Large icebergs can be detected from a distance of up to 15–20 NM, small growlers from up to 2 NM, bergy bits protruding up to 3 m from the water from up to 3 NM, and fields of concentrated hummocked ice from up to 3 NM. In areas covered in brash ice, one can only expect large ice floes to be detected. It should also be kept in mind that if the sea is rough, with waves between 2.5 and 4 m high (5° according to the Douglas Sea Scale), radar observations aimed at detecting ice forms cannot be relied on, as—in such conditions—even icebergs may remain undetected (USNHO 1950; HON 1979; Parnell 1986; MFOC 2012; UKHO 2015). Large underwater dimensions of the above-mentioned ice forms mean that their movement on the surface of water corresponds with wind direction and, even more so, sea currents (Karelin et al. 1946; USNHO 1950). In extreme cases, they can even move against the current. Due to a considerable sail area (height above sea level) and roughness, the ice drift of heavily hummocked ice may be even 2–3 times faster than that of level, not ridged ice (Karelin et al. 1946). At the same time, these ice forms are still small enough in relation to the length of the voyage route that they do not affect its direction. For this reason, they may be ignored at the stage of initial voyage planning.

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Due to their relatively small size, they may be classified as isolated dangers, surrounded by navigable waters (IHO 1994; UKHO 2012). Such isolated dangers must be avoided with utmost care (Weintrit 2009), in keeping with appropriate regulations on avoiding collision (Parnell 1986; IMO 2004). They may be detected, recognized and avoided at the stage of on-scene voyage planning.

3.2.1.4

Intensive Ice Drift and the So-called Ice River

Larger ice accumulations make it difficult for a vessel to move towards its destination. Sea current and rapidly drifting ice, which is impossible to navigate through, may in a matter of hours block a passage, where only easy to pass through ice of low concentration used to be (Parnell 1986; ABS 2013). More extensive ice fields as well as clusters of ice of small horizontal dimensions but high concentration (70–100%) should be avoided by a vessel in order to prevent it from becoming beset in ice and nipped (Gotsky 1961; Shmakov 1970; MFOC 2012). Freeing a nipped vessel is usually impossible without the assistance of an icebreaker, which may not be able to help immediately. If a vessel is nipped or if it navigates with minimum speed through fast-moving ice, it drifts along with the ice and, as a result, faces the risk of being carried off onto rocks or shallows (Inoue et al. 2015), having its hull damaged and sinking (Parnell 1986; Benzeman 2008, 2010; Marchenko 2012). For this reason, hydrological phenomena classified as dangerous for navigation (Parnell 1986; Chinoy 2007; Benzeman 2008, 2010; Mironov et al. 2010; Marchenko 2012; Inoue et al. 2015; ESIMO 2018b) include: ice fields made up of individual ice floes measuring no less than 500 m and drifting with the speed of 0.5 knot or faster (Rosgidromet 2008; Mironov et al. 2010); unstable, extremely rapid flow of water along with drifting close ice (concentration of 70–80%) made up of ice cake and small ice cake below 20 m in diameter, drifting with the speed of over 1 knot, and occurring over a relatively small geographical area (often referred to as “ice river” or “ice jet”); rapid changes in the direction of ice drift, reaching 90° within 3 h (Rosgidromet 2008; Mironov et al. 2010). When planning the route, it is recommended to avoid, as far as possible, areas where rapid or extremely rapid ice drift combined with high ice concentration, or with large ice fields, is likely to occur. If such areas cannot be avoided, it is necessary to adopt every measure to ensure early detection of dangerous phenomena as well as appropriate preventive measures (see Chap. 5).

3.2.1.5

Closing of a Navigable Canal Formed by a Passing Icebreaker

When a navigable canal formed in ice by a leading icebreaker closes due to the process of ice compacting, the vessels led by the icebreaker are forced to reduce their speed. The phenomenon is important in approach areas to ports (e.g. in the mouth of the Yenisey). In extreme cases, the convoyed vessel loses all its speed and becomes beset in compacting ice. Unable to free itself, it must wait for icebreaker

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3 Dangerous Hydrometeorological Phenomena Occurring on the NSR

assistance. If such assistance is not offered in time, a vessel may be moved by drifting ice onto a shallow or onto rocks and, as a result, suffer damage (Mironov et al. 2010). It is particularly dangerous along deepened fairways leading through ice, between shallows, towards cargo transfer terminals. The main reasons for the closing of navigable canals formed in fast ice include: the formation of waves after a passing icebreaker, which causes ice floes to move from the edge of the ice towards ice-free waters; changes in air temperature, causing changes in the temperature of ice and, as a consequence, stress in the ice; forces of compaction, which exist at the edge of fast ice and affect drifting ice floes; long-term impact of high winds on the surface of fast ice, regardless of the wind’s direction (Shmakov 1970; Arikaynen and Tsubakov 1987; Mironov et al. 2010). The probability that a navigable canal formed in fast ice after a passing icebreaker will close increases in the second half of the winter season, which is to say, from March to May. This is due to significant daily temperature fluctuations, that is daily air temperature increase of 8.8–11.7 °C when the average temperature is minus (−) 25 °C or lower (Mironov et al. 2010). The probability is in direct proportion to the width of fast ice. With fast ice of minimum width, the phenomenon does not occur. With fast ice of about 3.2 NM in width, the probability of canal closing due to considerable fluctuations in air temperature, estimated for the mouth of the Yenisey, reaches 40%. With fast ice of 21 NM in width, the probability increases to 60%. A navigable canal formed by a passing icebreaker is about 10 m wide. In the above-mentioned hydrometeorological circumstances, it will close by the average of 1.2–2.2 m, which leaves a navigable canal about 7.8–8.8 m wide. The initial width of the canal formed by a passing icebreaker and the capability of the convoyed vessels to navigate through ice are, therefore, important. The process of canal closing results in reduced speed of a convoy and reduced number of vessels in the convoy (Shmakov 1970; Shapaev 1975; Arikaynen and Tsubakov 1987; Jurdzi´nski 2000; Mironov et al. 2010). If an icebreaker navigating through ice on its own can reach 100% of its speed, an icebreaker leading a single vessel can only reach 60% of its speed, a convoy of two reduces it to 40% and a convoy of three to 20% of the icebreaker’s regular speed (Shapaev 1975; Jurdzi´nski 2000). For this reason, convoys of more than five vessels make no practical sense (Kjerstad 2011). In case of very hard conditions, vessels may be towed by icebreakers on long tow, short tow or even on close-coupled tow in case icebreaker is equipped with stern notch suited to receive and hold the bow of the vessel to be towed (Fig. 3.1). During the process of ice compacting, the rate at which the canal behind an icebreaker closes depends on the speed of ice drift and its direction in relation to the orientation of the canal (Shmakov 1970). The more perpendicular the ice drift is with regard to the orientation of the canal, the faster the process of canal closing will progress. And the faster the process progresses, the smaller the distance should be between particular vessels within the convoy. The reason behind the rule is to prevent the final vessels of the convoy from getting beset in ice (Shmakov 1970; Kjerstad 2011). It does, however, increase the risk of collision if one of the vessels within the convoy slows down in response to the existing ice conditions and the following vessel fails to do the same in time (Shmakov 1970; Shapaev 1975; Kjerstad 2011). In

3.2 Description of Hydrometeorological Phenomena Affecting …

59

Fig. 3.1 Vessel Malla short towed by means of stern notch by Finnish icebreaker Karhu in 1964 on Baltic Sea; a—stern notch, b—vessel in the channel in ice. Snapshots from 8 mm movie film made by Capt. Jan Pastusiak, father of the author

the ice of 20–30% concentration, vessels manage to avoid ice floes and the convoy reaches its maximum speed (Shmakov 1970), determined by the slowest vessel in the convoy. In such a situation, the distance between particular vessels within the convoy should equal 2.5–3.5 cables, assuming that the average length of a vessel is 120–130 m (Arikaynen and Tsubakov 1987). In ice of 40–60% concentration, the speed of the convoy should be reduced (Shmakov 1970; Jurdzi´nski 2000) to lessen the force of ice impact on vessel hull (Shapaev 1975). A reduction in vessel speed allows a reduction in distance between particular vessels (Shmakov 1970; CNIIMF 2014). Distance in between vessels in convoy should be equal 1.0–2.0 cables in this case (Arikaynen and Tsubakov 1987). If ice concentration reaches 70–100%, distance between vessels must be further reduced (Shmakov 1970; Shapaev 1975; Jurdzi´nski 2000) to 0.5–1.0 cable (Arikaynen and Tsubakov 1987). In such circumstances, reduced distance between vessels does not increase the risk of collision because the surrounding ice causes considerable hull resistance and thus helps vessels lose speed and stop much faster (Shmakov 1970). The stopping distance of vessels in ice depends on individual vessel features and equals approximately 2–5 lengths of the vessel (Shapaev 1975; Arikaynen and Tsubakov 1987; Jurdzi´nski 2000). As a result, Ice Certificates issued by the Central Marine Research and Design Institute CNIIMF (2014) include information on the safe speed of a given vessel in a convoy and the distance it should keep from the preceding and the following vessel. Due to the closing of navigable canals, taking place mainly as a consequence of ice compacting, the Russian Federation decided that new-generation, 33-metre-wide icebreakers will be constructed to make sure that the canals are wide enough to enable safe passage of large vessels carrying hydrocarbons from extraction sites in the Russian Arctic (Tsoy 2008; GRF 2014, 2017).

60

3 Dangerous Hydrometeorological Phenomena Occurring on the NSR

The issue of the closing of navigable canals formed by icebreakers concerns, to a great extent, vessels engaged in pilotage navigation in a convoy behind an icebreaker and vessels navigating autonomously through canals made by passing icebreakers. It concerns vessels navigating during the winter season, through ice of considerable thickness, close to the coast and ports located along the Northern Sea Route. The most serious hazards faced by vessels navigating through such canals include: the possibility of suffering damage due to ice compacting, the possibility of becoming beset and nipped in ice and the possibility of being pushed by drifting ice onto shallows or rocks.

3.2.1.6

Early Occurrence of Ice

Early freezing of seas in the Arctic has a major impact on navigation taking place in the region at the end of the summer and the beginning of the autumn navigation season (Mironov et al. 2010). It is marked by an early occurrence of drift ice or fast ice, which happens no more than once every 10 years. Young ice occurring in an area after it being freed from ice means the end of the ice-free navigation period and the beginning of navigation carried out with icebreaker assistance. The exact moment depends on the ice class of a vessel, which is to say, on the type of ice strengthening it possesses. In other words, the moment when icebreaker assistance becomes a necessity corresponds with the commencing date of systematic ice cover growth, which depends on the concentration of residual ice remaining in the area after the summer season and the ice class of a vessel. For vessels with low, L2 and L3 (Ice3 and Ice2) ice classes, systematic ice cover growth is said to begin when the concentration of residual ice is 10–30%; for vessels with average, UL and L1 (Arc5 and Arc4) ice classes—when it is 40–60%; and for vessels with ULA (Arc7) ice class—when residual ice concentration reaches 70–80% (Arikaynen and Tsubakov 1987; Mironov et al. 2010). Early occurrence of ice may bring about unusual or emergency situations, such as the necessity to seek icebreaker assistance, or to winter in the open sea or close to potential navigational hazards (Mironov et al. 2010; Marchenko 2012). The process of ice cover growth in the Arctic seas results from the mutual effect of factors causing heat accumulation during the period when the sea is heating up and the intensity of heat release into the atmosphere during the period when the sea is cooling down. It usually takes place at the end of August or the beginning of September. In autumn, the beginning of ice cover growth is marked by the occurrence of various forms of new ice on the surface of water. The possible forms of new ice, which may develop in the area or drift into it from other areas, include frazil ice, grease ice, slush and shuga, and are safe to navigate through by vessels without ice strengthening (Parnell 1986; GUNiO 1996). Afterwards, a gradual growth of ice cover takes place (Zubov 1938; Mironov et al. 2010). From the end of August to the beginning of October, air temperature over the seas of the Arctic drops below 0 °C and within 10–20 days various forms of new ice appear (Zakrzewski 1983; Mironov et al. 2010).

3.2 Description of Hydrometeorological Phenomena Affecting …

61

Ice cover growth occurs in the first place in areas covered with residual ice and then in ice-free waters. The process can first be observed in the northern part of the East Siberian Sea, where it begins at the end of August, while in shallow, coastal areas it begins, on average, within the first ten days of October. The Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea become covered with new ice within the average of 35–40 days. There are, however, considerable annual anomalies. The beginning date for the systematic growth of ice cover fluctuates within the range of 30–80 days (Mironov et al. 2010), which resembles the situation in the Canadian Arctic and Greenland (Zakrzewski 1983). A later beginning of ice cover growth, which usually happens in areas of ice-free water, tends to involve a smaller standard deviation from the average date (Abuzyarov et al. 1988; Mironov et al. 2010). An earlier beginning date of ice cover growth, which usually happens in areas covered with residual ice, tends to involve a greater standard deviation from the average date (Abuzyarov et al. 1988; Mironov et al. 2010). Large anomalies are related to an earlier beginning of systematic ice cover growth and occur in 25% of cases. One can talk of early beginning dates of ice cover growth when first ice forms appear in the northern part of the East Siberian Sea around August 10. It takes about 30 days from the moment when systematic ice cover growth begins in these areas for the north-eastern part of the Kara Sea, the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea to become completely covered with new ice. The duration of the navigation season for transit navigation on the NSR is greatly affected by the date when the Vilkitsky Strait (located in the archipelago of Severnaya Zemlya) becomes blocked by the systematically growing ice cover and by the subsequent date when blockage occurs in the area around Ayon Island, located in the eastern part of the East Siberian Sea (Zubov 1938; Abuzyarov et al. 1988; Arikaynen 1990; GUNiO 1998a, b, 1999; UNiO 2009; Mironov et al. 2010). The Vilkitsky Strait becomes blocked about 10 days earlier than the area around Ayon Island (Zubov 1938, Abuzyarov et al. 1988; GUNiO 1998a, b; Mironov et al. 2010). Ice cover growth can be classified as extremely early when first ice forms appear at the end of July in the northern parts of the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas, at the beginning of August in the northern part of the Laptev Sea, and in mid-August in the northern part of the Kara Sea. If this happens, the NSR becomes blocked at the end of August due to the Vilkitsky Strait and the area around Ayon Island being covered with young ice. During those summer seasons when ice cover growth begins early, an extensive anticyclone system exists in August and September over the western part of high-latitude Arctic regions, and an area of high pressure develops over the Barents Sea. Basic indicators of the beginning of ice cover growth include the minimum area of ice cover (for any form of ice) existing at the end of August, and air temperature. If the minimum relative area of ice cover in the summer season is about 48% (the average for four seas crossed by the NSR), the beginning date of ice cover growth is, approximately, October 7. If, on the other hand, the ice cover area is about 80%, ice cover growth begins around September 18. In over 70% of cases, new ice first occurs on the surface of seas crossed by the NSR when the average daily air temperature stays within the rage of −2 and −8 °C, which is to say, at the beginning of September.

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3 Dangerous Hydrometeorological Phenomena Occurring on the NSR

Table 3.1 Dependence of the type of time of beginning of the NSR region freezing from minimal relative ice-covered surface of this region in the summer season and the following temperature of the air Minimal relative area of ice cover (%)

Air temperature (°C)

Type of time of freezing of the region

Approximate date of beginning of the NSR freezing

Approximate date of occurrence of young ice at Vilkitsky Strait

27

−0.7

Late

21–30 Sept

01–05 Oct

38

−1.4

Average

11–20 Sept

~30 Sept

72

−3.0

Early

01–10 Sept

~15 Sept

85

−3.7

Extreme early

21–31 Aug

10–20 Sept

Data for the NE part of Kara Sea. Compiled by the author based on Mironov et al. (2010)

The more residual ice remains after the summer season, and the lower the air temperature is, the earlier the process of sea freezing begins (Zubov 1938; Zakrzewski 1983; Mironov et al. 2010). A sample relationship between the beginning date of the freezing process, the minimum relative area of ice cover in the summer season and air temperature has been illustrated in Table 3.1. Relative area of ice cover can be defined as the ratio of ice cover area in a given sea to the whole area of the sea, expressed as percentage. Data presented in Table 3.1 suggest that the growth of ice cover begins within a time frame of no more than 40 days, which is between August 21 and September 20, and young ice appears within a time frame of 25 days, which is between September 10 and October 5. The information regarding the minimum relative area of ice cover in a given navigation season and current air temperature may be used to predict the approximate date when seas crossed by the NSR will begin to freeze and the date when, due to ice blockage in the Vilkitsky Strait, transit voyages on the NSR will become impossible for vessels with steel hulls and no ice strengthening. These are either L4 (Ice1) ice class vessels or vessels classified as having no ice strengthening (No). The date when transit routes become blocked with ice determines the approximate date when independent transit navigation becomes impossible, but does not affect the geographical course of the planned voyage route. Early occurrence of ice on navigable routes may force a vessel navigating on the NSR to use icebreaker services on longer segment of the route than was initially planned. The above-given dates for the beginning of ice cover growth and the NSR closing for independent transit navigation by vessels without ice strengthening were determined on the basis of statistical (historical) data. Long-term Russian hydrometeorological forecasts (http://nsra.ru/ru/navigatsionnaya_i_gidrometinformatsiya/ dolgosrochnie_prognozi.html. Accessed 21.08.2017) indicate beginning dates for ice cover growth along the coast of the Northern Sea Route, thus making it possible to more accurately determine the dates when navigation on the NSR becomes possible only with icebreaker assistance.

3.2 Description of Hydrometeorological Phenomena Affecting …

3.2.1.7

63

Complex Occurrence (Co-occurrence) of Dangerous Phenomena

Complex occurrence (co-occurrence) of dangerous phenomena on the NSR refers to a heavy type of ice conditions and complicated ice conditions. Ice conditions qualify as a heavy type when thickness, concentration and hummocking of ice exceed average levels for more than 30 days within a given navigation season. Complicated ice conditions occur when ice thickness, concentration, hummocking or compacting reach maximum values on their respective scales at the same time. Both forms of simultaneously occurring, dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena lead to a reduction in the operational speed of vessels and icebreakers. They are defined in general terms, indicating major difficulties and hazards for navigation, especially navigation involving vessels without ice strengthening. Regions in which ice forms and dangerous phenomena co-occur should be avoided, regardless of vessel ice class.

3.2.2 Phenomena Unrelated to Ice Formations 3.2.2.1

Very Strong Winds and Wind Gusts

Very strong wind and wind gusts, which in the seas of the Arctic and the Far East blow with the minimum speed of 30 m/s, are considered a dangerous meteorological phenomenon (Rosgidromet 2008). Wind causes wind drift and heel of a vessel. Wind drift should be defined as a wind-generated deviation in the direction of vessel movement (course through water) in relation to the vessel’s true course (vessel’s diametral line). The heel of a vessel is the deflection angle of the vessel’s diametral plane from the vertical. Far from the shore, wind drift does not compromise vessel safety (Gordienko and Zaharyan 2004) and, in the case of modern vessels, wind-generated vessel heel is seldom large enough to constitute a hazard. When strong wind (storm) occurs, the most dangerous is not the wind itself but waves and swell it creates, as they cause a vessel to roll, pitch and heave. This, in turn, causes dynamic stress in vessel hull and its machinery, speed reduction and decreased steerage (Gordienko and Zaharyan 2004). In extreme cases, rolling may cause a vessel to capsize and pitching may lead to hull fracture. Rolling and pitching are most dangerous when resonance (convergence) occurs between the period of a vessel’s rolling and pitching and the relative period of encountered waves. Resonance takes place when pitching period or rolling period of a vessel differs from the relative (apparent) period of waves by no more than 30%. Based on the knowledge of the range of dangerous rolling and pitching of a vessel, a number of methods were developed in order to graphically represent ranges of dangerous vessel speed and course angle of incoming waves, thus making it possible to determine vessel course and speed vector which will not put the vessel in danger (Remez 1957;

64

3 Dangerous Hydrometeorological Phenomena Occurring on the NSR

Wróbel 1978; Shchetinina et al. 1983; Maksimadzhi 1988; Gordienko and Zaharyan 2004; IMO 2007). However, a change in the vector of vessel movement which goes beyond whatever is necessary from the point of view of vessel safety may not make economic sense (Holec and Tyma´nski 1973; Gordienko and Dremlyug 1989). Many publications do not discuss the issue of waves caused by extremely strong (stormy) winds and their impact on navigation at high latitudes in much detail (Parnell 1986; Arikaynen and Tsubakov 1987; Arikaynen 1990; CIS 2005; Chinoy 2007; Benzeman 2008, 2010; House et al. 2010; Mironov et al. 2010; Kjerstad 2011; MFOC 2012; ABS 2013; Marchenko 2013; OCIMF 2014). Some, despite touching upon the subject of strong winds (GUNiO 1996, 1998a, b, 1999; UNiO 2009; Marchenko 2012; NHS 2017) and the seas they cause (Marchenko 2012; NHS 2017), point to ice phenomena as a main challenge and hazard for navigation, and fail to mention strong winds and swell as potential dangers, which may make it impossible for a vessel to complete its voyage on the NSR. It should be noted that seas situated at high latitudes (and crossed by the Northern Sea Route) have relatively small areas. Despite considerable strength and duration of wind activity, wind-generated waves are prevented from reaching their full height by the relatively short way of wave development, and—as a result—are no higher than 4–5 m (ABS 2013). It may therefore be assumed that, on their own, even extremely strong (stormy) winds and wind-generated waves (seas and swell) do not constitute a hazard for modern vessels navigating on the Northern Sea Route. During the summer navigation season, strong, stormy winds are unlikely to occur in the Arctic (Kitagawa 2001; Marchenko 2012; Pastusiak 2016i; NHS 2017). As a result, wind occurring in polar regions should be considered in relation to wind-generated ice drift and the resulting changes in ice concentration and deformation, and as a factor making other dangerous phenomena, such as vessel icing, more likely to occur (USNHO 1950; Petrov 1955; Dremlyug et al. 1965; Parnell 1986; Arikaynen and Tsubakov 1987; Arikaynen 1990; GUNiO 1996; Kitagawa 2001; CIS 2005; Chinoy 2007; Benzeman 2008, 2010; Kjerstad 2011; Marchenko 2012; MFOC 2012; ABS 2013; Marchenko 2013; OCIMF 2014; NHS 2017).

3.2.2.2

Fog

Russian, British and American Sailing Directions for the Russian Arctic (GUNiO 1998a, b, 1999, 2006; UNiO 2009; UKHO 2016b; NGIA 2009, 2010) provide very little information on horizontal visibility. For the purpose of navigation, the most significant information relates to fog, which is to say, a situation when water droplets suspended in the air limit horizontal visibility to 0.5 NM or less. In the Arctic, the most common type of fog is advection fog, which forms mainly in the summer, when warm and moist air passes over a surface whose temperature is below the dew-point temperature of the incoming air. In order for advection fog to form, wind speed must remain within the range of 0.3 and 5–7 m/s. When it does form, it is usually thick, covers a large area and does not disperse for a long period of time.

3.2 Description of Hydrometeorological Phenomena Affecting …

65

Another type of fog encountered in the Arctic is evaporation fog. It forms mainly in autumn and winter at the edge of ice, over polynyas, zones of diverging ice and ice-free water, when these are covered by much colder air, colder than the water by at least 10–12 °C. The air rapidly warms, soaks up water vapour, and then lifts and cools as it mixes with the air above, as a result of which fog forms. Over the surface of the sea one can see columns, wisps and streaks of fog, which resemble rising smoke and are the reason why this type of fog is sometimes called “sea smoke”. Horizontal visibility in such fog changes constantly—the fog may become very thick only to thin out after a moment. If the fog is accompanied by strong or stormy winds, wisps of fog carried by the wind are clearly visible. In the analysed seas of the Russian Arctic, fog occurs most often from June to August (Table 3.2). In winter, fog is rare (1–2 days a month) and tends to disperse after a few hours. Fog occurs most commonly in the Kara Sea, where—in summer— the average number of foggy days is 13–19 in the south-western part of the sea and 20–24 in its north-eastern part (GUNiO 1998b). This is often very dense fog, during which horizontal visibility is reduced to less than 100 m (Danilov et al. 2004). In some years, in July and August, the number of foggy days in the Kara Sea may rise to 24–30. In the Laptev Sea, fog is most common over open areas east of the Vilkitsky Strait, where in August it may be foggy for 17–21 days. Fog is less common in coastal areas, where the number of foggy days is usually only 7–10, but in some years the number may reach 25–30 (UNiO 2009). In July and August, over the open waters of the East Siberian Sea but close to the edge of ice, fog may occur on 19–26 days in a month. In coastal areas, it forms much less frequently, which is to say, only 4–5 days a month (GUNiO 1998a). The smallest number of foggy days, even in the summer, has been observed in the Chukchi Sea. Over open waters and around Wrangel Island, fog is likely to occur on 15–16 days every month, and only up to 8 days of fog are to be expected on the coast (GUNiO 1999). For a navigator, information regarding fog is particularly important in the vicinity of difficult, narrow passages. As suggested by the above analysis, the probability of fog forming in such areas (Kara Gates Strait, Yugorsky Shar Strait, Vilkitsky Strait, Sannikov Strait and Laptev Strait) during the summer season is very high. It is relatively easy to predict the occurrence of advection fog—it is likely to form every time warm and moist air passes over a cold surface. The task is just as simple with sea smoke, which always follows intensive advection of very cold air over an unfrozen surface. Horizontal visibility will be particularly reduced if such advection is accompanied by gale-force winds (9–10 °B). Such high wind speed results in a large amount of sea spray in the air, which—along with the fog—will cause considerable vessel icing. This is why general fog-related information is not sufficient when planning a crossing of the NSR. Instead, it is necessary to use data and forecasts regarding horizontal visibility and fog in real time. They are available on Polar-NCEP website (ftp://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/fog). Dense fog, during which horizontal visibility is reduced to less than 100 m, forces vessels to reduce their running speed in order to avoid colliding with other vessels in the convoy or colliding with ice, which might cause hull damage or lead to the vessel becoming beset in ice. A vessel designed for ice navigation should proceed with

2

Provideniya

Wrangel I

II

2

1

1

1

1

0

1

4

4

3

III

2

1

1

1

2

0

1

5

4

3

IV

3

1

1

2

3

1

3

4

6

5

8

3

3

6

5

6

4

6

7

8

V

Compiled by the author based on GUNiO 1998a, b, 1999 and UNiO 2009

1

1

Pevek

1

Ambarchik

C. Chelyuskin

1

1

Dikson

1

3

Belyy I

Kotelnyy I

4

Amderma

Tiksi

I

3

Point

13

8

4

8

10

9

12

14

14

15

VI

16

8

5

9

16

10

20

19

18

16

VII

16

6

4

9

14

5

20

15

13

14

VIII

Table 3.2 Average number of days with fog in following months in selected points of the NSR in 1936–1987

8

2

3

5

6

2

10

10

10

9

IX

2

1

1

2

3

1

3

5

6

6

X

2

1

1

2

2

1

1

3

4

3

XI

2

1

1

1

1

0

1

3

3

2

XII

66 3 Dangerous Hydrometeorological Phenomena Occurring on the NSR

3.2 Description of Hydrometeorological Phenomena Affecting …

67

the speed corresponding with engine order telegraph command “Dead slow ahead”, which is up to 4–5 knots (Gotsky 1961). Detecting changes in the speed or course of another vessel only by electronic means, such as a radar or Automatic Identification System (AIS), involves a time delay larger than it might be if visual observation method was also used. Vessels have considerable inertia, even when navigating with small speed. When manoeuvring in ice, it is impossible to make major changes in the course of the vessel or force it to stop by making the propeller work astern in the full time range required for this manoeuvre. If an obstruction is detected and recognized within about 100 m from the vessel, there is no guarantee that it will manage to stop or steer clear of the obstruction. Ice detection conducted only by means of a radar may also not be enough to ensure that ice floes are detected and recognized in time for a vessel to be able to steer clear of them or stop at a safe distance from them. A collision with an ice floe, whose horizontal dimensions and thickness are greater than those acceptable for a given type of vessel, may cause hull damage. Entering deep into a larger ice floe may make it impossible for a vessel to move in either direction and leave it nipped in ice. In such a situation, it is usually necessary to seek icebreaker assistance. Thick fog may, at any one time, cover extensive areas, which is why it is necessary for a vessel to navigate with such a speed that, once an obstruction is detected and recognized, the vessel is able to avoid contact with ice by reversing the propeller astern and stopping clear of the obstruction (Gotsky 1961). The speed must be determined in advance, based on the existing horizontal visibility, the capability of navigation officers to detect and recognize obstructions, the ability of the propulsion engine to be reversed astern and the stopping distance of a given type vessel carrying a given amount of cargo. Vessels with no ice strengthening or a working radar should stop and wait for meteorological visibility to improve (Gotsky 1961).

3.2.2.3

Adhesion of New Ice Forms or Young Ice to Vessel Hull

Ice adhesion is a phenomenon by which small fragments of broken ice stick to the hull of a vessel, which may happen when ambient temperature drops below 0 °C (Benzeman 2010; Mironov et al. 2010; OCIMF 2014). The phenomenon is most commonly encountered in autumn and winter, when air temperature drops below −10 °C, and may affect vessels navigating in ice-free waters as well as in waters covered in young (grey-white) ice with the thickness of 15–30 cm, or with thin firstyear ice with the thickness of 30–70 cm (Mironov et al. 2010; OCIMF 2014; Pastusiak 2016h). Ice adhesion is most severe during navigation through young, snow-covered ice, undergoing strong compacting. In such a situation, the “cushion” of ice and snow may be even 10 m thick. Occasionally, the phenomenon may also take place with ambient temperature being significantly lower. During periods when sea water freezes rapidly, grease ice, slush and shuga stick to vessel hull, forming in its bow section ice growths (also known as “a cushion” or “moustache”), which may be a few metres thick and may stretch as much as several metres along the boards of the vessel (Mironov et al. 2010; Tsoy et al. 2014). As a

68

3 Dangerous Hydrometeorological Phenomena Occurring on the NSR

result, hull resistance may become greater than during the strongest ice compacting (Tsoy 2016). Ice sticking to vessel hull makes the vessel lose much of its speed and manoeuvrability, and—in some cases—brings a vessel to a complete stop (Mironov et al. 2010; Tsoy et al. 2014). Vessels able to pass through ice at the speed of 10–14 knots lose some of this ability. They slow down considerably and become more and more difficult to manoeuvre, as a result of which there is a growing risk of collision with another vessel in the convoy. As a result of an ice “cushion” formed around it, a vessel may become nipped in such a way that an icebreaker will be necessary to free it. If the hull of an icebreaker is not covered with a layer of smooth, abrasion-resistant coating, it will be forced to deal with the issue of ice adhesion for 25% of time it spends navigating in ice-covered regions. A layer of snow thicker than 50 cm means that attempts to reduce icebreaker hull resistance by means of air bubbles will not be effective, which will result it speed reduction and increased fuel consumption. An icebreaker covered with an ice “cushion” loses some of its ability to pass through ice. The thickness of ice vessel is able to pass through decreases to 75% of the original value (Tsoy et al. 2014) and experiences a 100% increase in fuel consumption (when compared to the amount of fuel used when no adhesion occurs). The rate at which ice sticking to vessel hull grows in volume depends on air and water temperature, thickness of snow layer on ice, and the roughness of hull plating. Ice adhesion can be limited by removing rust and roughness of the hull, and by applying special paint or galvanic layers over hull plating (Tsoy et al. 2014). To slow down the process of hull plating corrosion, which makes hull plating rough, cathodic anticorrosive protection may be used in the bow section of a vessel.

3.2.2.4

Icing of Vessels and Terminals Located off the Coast

Vessel icing is a process by which a layer of ice forms on the surface of a vessel, its superstructure and deck equipment. Ice accumulating on a vessel constitutes additional load, raises the vessel’s centre of gravity and changes its metacentric height and worsening vessel stability (Gotsky 1961; Aksyutin 1979; Smirnov 1993; Chinoy 2007; Mironov et al. 2010; House et al. 2010; NCEP 2018a, b). This has a negative impact on the vessel’s reserve of buoyancy and its stability, as a result of which the vessel may capsize and sink. Ice building up on exposed surfaces may also make it difficult to use rescue equipment, radio communication devices and the radar (Aksyutin 1979; NCEP 2018a). Most of the time vessel icing takes place when subzero air temperature (below − 1.9 °C) combines with strong wind (above 10 m/s), which leads to sea spray covering the vessel and sea water coming on decks. If forms of new ice are already present in sea water shipped by a vessel, the icing process accelerates rapidly. Ice accretion occurs most of all on vessel sides and decks, superstructures, deck equipment and deck cargo. In Arctic conditions, the layer of accumulated ice may be 20–30 cm thick, and in some cases, ice accumulated on deck may be as thick as 1 m. This type of icing is known as saltwater or sea icing.

3.2 Description of Hydrometeorological Phenomena Affecting …

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Vessel icing may also occur when subzero air temperature (between 0 and − 20 °C) and moderate wind (up to 10 m/s) combine with fog, rain, sleet or wet snow, and is then referred to as freshwater or atmospheric icing. The layer of ice which builds up as a result is usually only about 1–2 cm thick, but it may occasionally grow as thick as 6 cm. Mixed vessel icing is also possible and occurs when weather phenomena responsible for saltwater and freshwater icing co-occur (Aksyutin 1979; UNiO 2009). Russian Sailing Directions regarding areas crossed by the NSR discuss the issue of vessel icing in much detail (GUNiO 1998a, b, 1999; UNiO 2009). According to the information found in these sources, the most common type of vessel icing occurring during the navigation season (July–October) is saltwater icing (50% of all cases recorded in the years 1955–1977); slightly less common (41%) is mixed icing; and the least common of them all (9%) is freshwater icing. Even though, in all the analysed seas, vessel icing may occur throughout the year, it is most often observed during the warm season, from July to October. Vessel icing is especially common in September and October, when it becomes relatively frequent that air of subzero temperature moves over waters which are as yet free of ice (Table 3.2). Between November and June, when most seas are covered with close ice, only freshwater icing, caused by sea smoke, may occur. According to the above-mentioned Sailing Directions, Russian services distinguish three categories of ice accretion intensity: slow, fast and very fast. These categories were established for small vessels with a displacement of 300–500 tons (Aksyutin 1979; GUNiO 1996; NCEP 2018a, b). Slow vessel icing may occur under any wind conditions when air temperature is between 0 and −3 °C. Alternatively, it may occur when air temperature falls below −3 °C and wind speed does not exceed 7 m/s. In such conditions, ice builds up at a rate of 1 cm or 1.5 ton per hour. Fast vessel icing may occur when air temperature is between −3 and −8 °C, and the speed of wind is between 7 and 15 m/s. In such conditions, ice may build up at a rate of 1–3 cm or 1.5–4 tons per hour. Very fast vessel icing may take place whenever air temperature drops below −3 °C and the speed of wind exceeds 15 m/s, or when air temperature drops below −8 °C and the wind blows with the speed of 7–15 m/s (Fig. 3.2a). In such conditions, ice may accumulate at a rate exceeding 3 cm and 4 tons per hour. Awareness of the recurring nature of the above-mentioned thermal and anemometric conditions made it possible for Russian services to evaluate the probability of vessel icing in particular seas of the Russian Arctic from the climatic point of view (Table 3.3). Information on spatial distribution of vessel icing probability, included in Russian Sailing Directions, suggests that in September and October, the biggest probability of fast and very fast vessel icing occurs, in general, in northern areas of particular seas. These areas lie close to the edge of the ice covering the Central Arctic, above which masses of cold air form. If this air moves quickly southwards, it may cause the occurrence of saltwater icing on ice-free waters. Among the seas crossed by the NSR, the highest probability of vessel icing occurs in the Kara Sea and the East

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3 Dangerous Hydrometeorological Phenomena Occurring on the NSR

Fig. 3.2 Icing of small vessel. a—steam ship Wrocław in 1951 iced after stormy weather on Baltic Sea at minus 14 °C; a—vessel in port after icing, b—crew with mallets ready to commence de-icing of vessel on Baltic Sea at minus 12 °C in 1953. Photographs made by Capt. Jan Pastusiak, father of the author

Table 3.3 Probability of occurrence of slow, fast and very fast icing of vessel in various narrow passages on the NSR in September and October (%) Narrow passage

September

October

Slow

Fast

Very fast

Slow

Fast

Very fast

Yugorsky Shar strait