Urbanisation and Crime in Nigeria [1st ed.] 9783030197643

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Urbanisation and Crime in Nigeria Adegbola Ojo · Oluwole Ojewale

Urbanisation and Crime in Nigeria “This book on Urbanisation and Crime in Nigeria is the first comprehensive book on the intersection between urbanisation and crime in Nigeria. It offers theoretical and empirical explanations of the factors within the urban environments in Nigeria that shape and are shaped by crime. Scholars and students of criminology, urban sociology, and social geography will benefit from reading the book.” —Etannibi Alemika, Professor of Criminology and Sociology of Law, University of Jos, Jos, Nigeria “Urbanisation and Crime in Nigeria is a most timely and hugely important work that chronicles how crime in emerging cities of fast-growing developing nations can be better understood, managed and controlled. Incisive, deft and innovative, this book intelligently pulls together diverse big data sources to critically expand scholarship in an innovative and accessible way. The authors illustrate how spatial thinking and analysis is essential to solving urban criminogenic problems and generating insight for strategic and operational decision-making. The book is a “must read” for leaders of cities across our world, urban and rural planning practitioners, students, academics and everyone working towards a safer and more secure human society.” —Paul Olomolaiye, Professor of Construction Engineering and Management, Pro Vice-Chancellor and Executive Dean of the Faculty of Environment and Technology, University of the West of England, Bristol, United Kingdom “The Book—Urbanisation and Crime in Nigeria—is a bold attempt made by the two authors to discuss the nexus between urbanisation and crime in the country. By so doing, the authors are assuming that crimes can be understood through the theory of ‘environmental determinism’ or better still, ‘architectural determinism’, being a theory employed in urbanism, sociology and environmental psychology, which claims that the built environment is the chief or even sole determinant of social behaviour as postulated by many authors including Jeremy Bentham, Adolf Behne, David Smith Hubert J. Gans, Ray Pahl, David Correia and many others. The question is: can we say that urbanization or urban development is the sole determinant of crime? While environmental determinism theory as an explanation of social conduct is now most often referred to in the literature as discredited, yet surprisingly it is still to be found as an argument for urban renewal. In writing this new book, the authors are implicitly calling for a revisit of the subject matter. They have aptly the trends of urbanisation in

Nigeria and several aspects of crime. They reviewed theories of crimes on which the analyses presented in Chap. 6 on the contemporary configuration of crime across Nigerian cities were based. While urbanisation as the sole cause of crime is not proven, nevertheless, the causes of crime can be attributed to several socioeconomic factors which the authors dubbed ‘crime precipitators’ such as poverty, poor parental upbringing, manipulation by politicians, unemployment, failure of the criminal system, ineffective policing etc. Certainly, both authors have opened up a new debate on the subject matter that is going to appeal to readers and researchers.” —Johnson Bade Falade, Professor of Geography and Regional Planning, Former UN-Habitat Programme Manager for Nigeria and MD/CEO, Gotosearch.Com Ltd, Lagos, Nigeria

Adegbola Ojo • Oluwole Ojewale

Urbanisation and Crime in Nigeria

Adegbola Ojo School of Geography University of Lincoln Lincoln, UK

Oluwole Ojewale CLEEN Foundation Abuja, Nigeria

ISBN 978-3-030-19764-3    ISBN 978-3-030-19765-0 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19765-0 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2019 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Cover illustration: GettyImages-997757812 and GettyImages-1086379454 This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

To our families

Foreword I

I thoroughly enjoyed reading this trail-blazing text on the link between two fundamental influences on socio-economic development of many a country—urbanisation and crime—influences that are particularly important in a developing country such as Nigeria. As a Nigerian national myself, I have noted the frenetic pace of urbanisation in the country and pondered the consequences of graduates and youths in different parts of the country abandoning the rural and semi-rural towns for the cities, and thus creating a squeeze of very large populations into such cities as Lagos, Abuja, Enugu, Kano and Port Harcourt. Such a squeeze seems to me a plausible cause of crimes in those cities, given the lack of adequate economic opportunities to occupy the minds of city dwellers. It is, therefore, apposite to have to write a foreword to a text that, arguably for the first time, provides in fairly forensic details a multi-lensed understanding of urbanisation and crime in Nigeria. Chapter 2 of the text discusses ‘Nigeria’s urbanisation history, trends, drivers and implications’ in light of increasing urban poverty and crime. Chapter 3 details the criminal justice system, pointing out such challenges of the system as ‘failure of governance and institutions to design effective and flexible criminal justice policies’, which are suitable for expanding urbanisation. In Chap. 4, the authors critically examine the ‘applicability of traditional environmental criminological theories in developing country vii

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c­ ontexts’. The focus of the chapter is the suitability of mainstream theories for explaining geospatial patterns of crime in developing countries. These ideas provide clear guardrails for future research and interventions towards alleviating the scourge of urban crime in Nigeria and similar developing countries. A novel framework for comparative analysis of intercity crime is presented in Chap. 5. The wide range of methods for conducting such analysis will inform the fine-tuning of crime prevention strategies to the unique geographical, economic and socio-cultural contexts of different Nigerian cities and states in which they are emplaced. The tenor of criminological theories and comparative analysis of intercity crime in Chaps. 4 and 5 are balanced out with a ‘contemporary configuration of crime across Nigerian cities’, presented in Chap. 6. This chapter literally brings research on urbanisation and crime to the cutting edge, by using recent data to explore the geo-temporal manifestations of urban crime in Nigeria, in a way that will inform the effectiveness of law enforcement agencies in controlling urban crimes, more than currently obtains. The above theoretical and practical insights into urbanisation and crime in Nigeria are rounded out by a detailed discussion of crime precipitators in Chap. 7 and urban crime harm in Chap. 8. The results in Chap. 7 integrate macro risk factors for urban crime, for example, inequality and social polarisation, and a ‘deep-dive’ analysis of emerging drivers of crime in Nigerian cities. This complements more effective measurement of the impact of urban crime in Chap. 8 in providing a more robust evidence base for better crime prevention policies and interventions in Nigeria. The text further examines ideas related to urban crime prevention and control, including the need to expand economic opportunities to city dwellers whilst limiting their access to small and light weapons. Chapter 10 distils from the overall research results in the text salient recommendations for evidence-based improvements in the theory, research and practice of urbanisation and crime in Nigeria, linked to such important perspectives as evidence-based policing, enhancement of public confidence, mitigation of corruption, kidnapping, young people, the

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urban poor, civil security platforms, digitisation and speedy prosecution of criminal trials. As seasoned researchers and writers, the rigour exemplified by Adegbola and Oluwole is matched by an unflinching search to understand the transformational and criminogenic consequences of urbanisation and to explain these to the reader. In a nutshell, I find this text compelling in its detailed treatment of the topic of urbanisation and crime in Nigeria and similar developing countries in Africa, for example. It is a must read for academics, students and professionals in related disciplines—for example, human geography, criminology, national security and policing, sociology and wider socio-economic development. Patrick Oseloka Ezepue African Higher Education and Research Observatory Sheffield, UK Coal City University, Enugu, Nigeria 1 April 2019

Foreword II

Urbanisation as an irreversible process of socio-economic transformation has generated diverse consequences for most cities of the world especially in the developing nations where these processes of urban change have not been managed successfully. Not only have these manifested in the economic constellations of these cities where informality holds sway but also in the urban social fabrics where urbanisation has heightened the ‘anomie’ principle and, by inference, emboldened individuals to commit crime and or engage in various categories of criminal activities. As the intensity of crime and criminality increases, the capacity and capability of (urban) governments, and especially their governance structures, seem to have fallen far behind the accelerated pace of criminal actors who seem to have defied all traditional crime deterrent systems in this cyber age. Accordingly, new methods of and for crime fighting and new deterrent systems/measures must be evolved to capture the variegated nature of contemporary crime structures and settings across all ages and city morphologies. This is why the advent of this book, Urbanisation and Crime in Nigeria, is very timely. Not only is the title topical but its ten chapters intimately capture the contemporary challenges of crime in Africa’s most populous country, Nigeria. The book is a renewed attempt to present the known in new understandable ways and present new models for a better conceptualisation of crime; this is presented in Chaps. 1 and 2. The criminal ­justice xi

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s­ystem and a critical appraisal and application of the various crime and criminology concepts and theories are contextualised in Chaps. 3 and 4. After these refreshingly rendered introductory chapters, the rest of the book takes a forensic look at the crime corridor of Nigeria and uses it as a lens to explore the crime landscape in the country. For example, while Chap. 5 develops a novel methodological framework for inter-city comparative crime analysis, it uses this framework to analyse and discuss Nigerian cities in Chap. 6, where various urban crime morphologies and their intensity are identified. It is thus possible to now know which cities are more dangerous to live in than others. Following Chaps. 5 and 6, the authors then unearth in Chap. 7 the social, economic and environmental factors which precipitate crime and criminal tendencies in Nigerian cities. All of these discussions lead the authors to examine in Chap. 8 a critical but often least-considered area in criminal research, that of the costs of criminal activities. The authors not only present a conceptual definition/interpretation of the cost of crime, they also evolve a model for such analysis and use the model to configure the crime differentiation and pattern of cost in the urban crime landscape in Nigeria. This is a very novel approach to crime analyses and one which will spur other researchers to venture into this area of crime research. A kaleidoscope of control and prevention of the known, the less-­ known and practised, and the unknown are presented in Chap. 9. It is a chapter which calls for the cooperation of all actors—state and non-state, community, non-governmental organisations, the evolvement of new legislations and many more. The book concludes with a chapter on how to protect our cities, which are the bastions of national economy, from crime as the costs of these crimes are getting prohibitive by the day. All the findings of this book are as relevant to all nations of the developing world as they are to Nigeria, about which this book is written. This book is not only valuable for researchers and academics but to all practitioners in all spheres of human endeavour because without safety and security there cannot be progress and development. The book has been written by seasoned academics and practitioners who are not only versed in the concepts and theories of safety and security but are also adept in crime and criminology discourses. They have used their wealth of experience to interrogate the crime and criminal

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landscape of Nigeria and, by inference, the criminal landscape of cities in the developing countries of the world. It is a ready handbook for all professionals and practitioners. Department of Urban and Regional Planning University of Ibadan Ibadan, Nigeria 15 April 2019

Babatunde Samuel Agbola

Preface and Acknowledgements

In parallel to human population growth, Nigeria is currently experiencing an urbanisation fever. Over a period of 60 years (1950–2010), urban agglomerations grew by a combined minimum average of 10  million urban dwellers every decade. During the period between 2000 and 2010, urban centres grew by more than 25 million additional urban dwellers. There is no doubt that Nigeria is presently at an accelerated stage of its urban transition, with more than half of its total population now residing in urban agglomerations. Between 2018 and 2050, it is projected that 189 million more people would have been added to Nigeria’s urban population. Approximately seven in ten Nigerians will live in cities by 2050 in search of what we described as the Nigerian urban dream—the pursuit of a better life. The Nigerian state has profited tremendously from rapid urbanisation. Cities have emerged as the dominant engines of economic growth; the main channels for extending and decentralising democratic values and political power and the hubs of enterprise, creativity and diffusion of innovation. Nevertheless, the implications of the country’s rapid urbanisation are profound for urban dwellers, urban economies and the sustainable development of what is considered by many as a fragile democracy. Rapid urbanisation is happening in an unmanaged manner in the midst of highly decaying social and public infrastructure. This has massive implications for the provision of employment opportunities, xv

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food, housing, transport, water, social services, waste disposal services and environmental protection. These challenges are further compounded by poverty and inequality, weakening social capital bases and increasing levels of social disorganisation. Despite the systemic weaknesses that characterise Nigerian cites, they are under huge pressure to deliver the goods of the urban dream for an ever-increasing and impatient number of urban dwellers. These competing demands combine to make many cities flashpoints for crime and violence. Urban crime is arguably one of the most pressing social issues confronting Nigeria, with its only serious rivals being human and economic development. Leaders are increasingly coming to recognise the significance of the problem. Crime constitutes a serious impediment to social and economic development in Nigeria. In numerous urban centres, high burdens of crime threaten human welfare, undermine the growth of small, medium and large enterprises and hinder social development. Furthermore, urban crime drives away foreign and domestic investment, thereby impeding economic growth. Others have also observed that crime nurtures the exodus of highly skilled labour force. In several other ways, urban crime continues to stunt the growth and development of Nigerian cities. The fundamental aim of this book is to bring the subjects of urbanisation and crime together through a focused and engaging discussion of key concepts, data, processes, analytical techniques and illustrative applications. This helps to ensure that students, scholars, practitioners, policymakers and volunteers can better understand the evolving dynamics of both urbanisation and crime in Africa’s most populous country. In addition to this, through an evidence-based prism, the book aims to critically engage the myths and debates about the factors that are actually causing Nigeria’s rapid levels of contemporary urbanisation. The book points out the importance of criminological theoretical frameworks, but it also challenges the assumptions and suggestions by some that traditional Euro-­ American theories of environmental criminology are directly applicable in African urban contexts. A strong case for the development of context-­ relevant criminological theories is provided. The book explores the current state of crime and its impact on various groups of people in Nigerian cities, providing evidence of spatial and sequential patterns, as well as case

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studies of prevention and reduction mechanisms, and a robust body of recommendations aimed at future-proofing urban centres and residents from crime. It is a delightful duty for authors to acknowledge and recognise those persons and organisations that have helped in the research and preparation of a book. We are immensely grateful to the Department for International Development (DFID). Without generous funding from DFID to support the primary research project that underpins much of the evidence gathered and documented in this book, our vision might have remained a dream only. We are also indebted to ICF’s Dr Robin Bloch and Nikolaos Papachristodoulou (formerly at ICF) for their invaluable support, advice and helpful edits. We acknowledge the support received from other members of the team at ICF’s international development division in London. We also extend our appreciation to Jon Parry (Skills for Justice, Sheffield) for the helpful comments and suggestions provided during the early part of our manuscript development. The anonymous reviewers of our book proposal also helped to sharpen our thoughts on several issues. We thank them as well. The authors also appreciate the unalloyed commitment and support of numerous Nigerian urban residents who participated in various research consultations, members of professional associations as well as state and non-state security actors who participated in the focused group discussions and in-depth interviews conducted across cities and towns in Nigeria for the purpose of this book. These include Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), CLEEN Foundation, Nigeria Bar Association, National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA), Nigeria Police Force, Private Security Companies (PSCs) and Vigilante Group of Nigeria. Others are Community Policing Partnership Association of Nigeria, Voluntary Policing Sector, Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), Hisbah, Council of Ulama and National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW). Finally, we are forever indebted to our spouses, Funmilola Ojo and Yetunde Ojewale, and our children for their patience, endurance and moral support throughout the period of intensive research and frenetic writing. These are the people who add colour and meaning to our lives on a daily basis.

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All these wonderful people, groups and many others too numerous to mention have contributed in one way or another to help make the book better. The opinions expressed in the rest of the book are solely those of the authors. Lincoln, UK Abuja, Nigeria 

Adegbola Ojo Oluwole Ojewale

Contents

1 Introduction  1 2 Nigeria’s Urbanisation History, Trends, Drivers and Implications 13 3 The Criminal Justice System: Actors, Processes and Policies 59 4 Applicability of Traditional Environmental Criminological Theories in Developing Country Contexts 83 5 A Framework for Intercity Comparative Analysis of Crime113 6 Contemporary Configuration of Crime Across Nigerian Cities135 7 Crime Precipitators171 8 Urban Crime Harm187 xix

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9 Urban Crime Prevention and Control199 10 Conclusion223 Index239

Abbreviations

ACJA ASR BCDSC BOYES CCTV CDD CIA CID CJTF CPA CPC CPTED CRAVED DDR DFID DMSP DSS EFCC FCT FRSC GDP GIS

Administration of Criminal Justice Act Average Spatial Resolution Business Development and Coaching Services Centres Borno Youth Empowerment Scheme Closed Circuit Television Centre for Democratic Development Central Intelligence Agency Criminal Investigation Department Civilian Joint Task Force Criminal Procedure Act Criminal Procedure Code Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design Concealable, Removable, Available, Valuable, Enjoyable and Disposable Demobilisation, Disarmament and Reintegration Department for International Development Defence Meteorological Satellite Program Department of State Services Economic and Financial Crimes Commission Federal Capital Territory Federal Road Safety Corps Gross Domestic Product Geographic Information Systems xxi

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GPW GRUMP HEI ICT IDP IDS IHDI IJR JOR LEI LGA LNSC MDA MEND MERIS NAPTIP NBS NCE NCGIA NCVS NDLEA NGO NPC NPF NSC NSCDC NUCHI NYSC OECD OPC PGC PSC PSG SALWs SCP SSA SSS SUCHI

Gridded Population of the World Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project Higher Education Institutions Information and Communications Technologies Internally Displaced Persons Institute for Development Studies Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index Institute for Justice and Reconciliation Joint Operations Room Life Expectancy Index Local Government Areas Lagos Neighbourhood Safety Corps Ministries, Departments and Agencies Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer National Agency for the Prohibition of Trafficking in Persons National Bureau of Statistics Nigeria Certificate in Education National Centre for Geographic Information Analysis National Crime Victimisation Survey National Drug Law Enforcement Agency Non-governmental Organisation National Populations Commission Nigeria Police Force Neighbourhood Safety Corps Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps Northern Urban Crime Harm Index National Youth Service Corps Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development O’odua People’s Congress Private Guard Companies Private Security Companies Private Security Guards Small Arms and Light Weapons Situational Crime Prevention Sub-Saharan Africa State Security Service Southern Urban Crime Harm Index

 Abbreviations 

SWAC UCHI UN UNDP UNODC URN VIVA WHO YPG

Sahel and West Africa Club Urban Crime Harm Index United Nation United Nations Development Programme United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime Urbanisation Research Nigeria Value, Inertia, Visibility and Access World Health Organisation Yobe Peace Group

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List of Figures

Fig. 2.1 Political and administrative geography of Nigeria 17 Fig. 2.2 Percentage shares and projected urban and rural population in Nigeria (1950–2025) 20 Fig. 2.3 Levels of urbanisation in Nigeria and West Africa, 1950–2050 25 Fig. 2.4 Spatial distribution of urban agglomerations in Nigeria (1950–2010)27 Fig. 2.5 Trajectory of shares of urban agglomerations by geopolitical zones (1950–2010) 32 Fig. 2.6 Expansion of urban frontiers in (a) Calabar (1990–2010) and (b) Zaria (1990–2010) 34 Fig. 2.7 Urban system of Western Africa (2010) and innovation (2009/2010)42 Fig. 4.1 Characteristics of good urban criminological theories 86 Fig. 4.2 The crime analysis triangle 96 Fig. 5.1 Temporal patterns of crime 127 Fig. 5.2 The social ecological model 129 Fig. 6.1 Estimated prevalence rates of urban crime (2005–2011) 143 Fig. 6.2 Relationship between fear of crime and estimated prevalence of crime (2005–2011) 145 Fig. 6.3 Specialisation of murder (2005–2011) 146 Fig. 6.4 Specialisation of robbery (2005–2011) 147 Fig. 6.5 Specialisation of kidnapping (2005–2011) 149 Fig. 6.6 Specialisation of physical assault (2005–2011) 150 xxv

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Fig. 6.7 Fig. 6.8 Fig. 6.9 Fig. 6.10 Fig. 6.11 Fig. 6.12 Fig. 6.13 Fig. 6.14 Fig. 6.15 Fig. 6.16 Fig. 6.17 Fig. 6.18 Fig. 7.1

List of Figures

Specialisation of domestic violence (2005–2011) Trends in urban violent crimes Specialisation of vehicle theft (2005–2011) Specialisation of motorcycle theft (2005–2011) Specialisation of mobile phone theft (2005–2011) Specialisation of burglary (2005–2011) Specialisation of theft of money (2005–2011) Specialisation of theft from car (2005–2011) Trends in urban property crimes Specialisation of rape (2005–2011) Specialisation of attempted rape (2005–2011) Trends in urban serious sexual offences City-level correlations of robbery prevalence versus polarisation risk factors in Nigeria Fig. 8.1 Relationship between harm of crime and estimated prevalence of crime in northern Nigeria cities (2005–2011) Fig. 8.2 Relationship between harm of crime and estimated prevalence of crime in southern Nigeria cities (2005–2011)

151 152 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 164 165 165 173 195 195

List of Tables

Table 2.1 Selected definitions of urban settlements across Africa 14 Table 2.2 Urban population to urban agglomeration ratio (thousands) 33 Table 2.3 Share of migrants in an urban or rural place of residence (2010)38 Table 3.1 Selected innovative provisions of the Administration of Criminal Justice Act (ACJA) 2015 73 Table 3.2 Passage of the Administration of Criminal Justice Act (ACJA) 75 Table 4.1 Families of major criminological theories 89 Table 4.2 Hotspot places and causal mechanisms 98 Table 5.1 Calculation of crime incidence rate 120 Table 5.2 Interpreting results of the location quotient analysis 126 Table 6.1 Estimated prevalence rates of crime by settlement hierarchy (2005–2011)143 Table 6.2 Crime concentration versus crime prevalence rate in Nigerian cities (2005–2011) 144 Table 6.3 Average daily share (%) of urban murders (2005–2011) 152 Table 6.4 Average daily share (%) of urban robberies (2005–2011) 153 Table 6.5 Average daily share (%) of urban kidnappings (2005–2011) 153 Table 6.6 Average daily share (%) of urban physical assaults (2005–2011)154 Table 6.7 Average daily share (%) of urban vehicle thefts (2005–2011) 162 Table 6.8 Average daily share (%) of motorcycle thefts (2005–2011) 162 Table 6.9 Average daily share (%) of mobile phone thefts (2005–2011) 163 xxvii

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List of Tables

Table 6.10 Average daily share (%) of rapes (2005–2011) 166 Table 8.1 Differences in general guidelines for punishing criminal offences in Nigeria 191 Table 8.2 Weights used to construct the NUCHI and SUCHI 193

1 Introduction

1.1 Overview of the Book Urbanisation helps to engender economic growth which is often underpinned by improved access to jobs, goods and services, especially for poor people in developing countries. For many developing countries such as Nigeria, cities represent the last stand for uniformity, a sort of enclave where people struggle so as not to succumb; a benign place where there is still a guarantee of difference and where tradition is cultivated. Cities in developing countries are perceived as havens where the idea of community is transferred, with all the difficulties that this entails, and where all these diversities are allowed to coexist and concentrate into relatively limited spaces, with mutual respect. However, it is fair to say that with all its merits, urbanisation has also brought new challenges in terms of crime, insecurity and urban violence. In much of the world, crime is disproportionately urban (Onibokun and Faniran 1995; Glaeser 2011). More than 1.5 billion people live in areas affected by repeated cycles of criminal violence (World Bank 2011). The landmark World Development report published by the World Bank in

© The Author(s) 2019 A. Ojo, O. Ojewale, Urbanisation and Crime in Nigeria, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19765-0_1

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2011 highlighted the significance of crime and insecurity as clogs in the wheel of urban development. Nigeria is positioned at the front end of the escalator of rapidly urbanising countries; therefore, most cities in the country are centres of social, political and economic power (Bloch et  al. 2015). The attention that these cities command makes some of them flashpoints for crime and violence (Alemika and Chukwuma 2005). The fact that many Nigerian cities combine rapid unmanaged growth with decaying public infrastructure mean that risk factors can accumulate and deepen the potential for urban crime. Disorderly growth transforms power relationships within Nigerian urban centres. This in turn activates new social and economic pathways that can trigger crime and conflict. This book represents a bold and refreshing move that gives a comprehensive overview of urbanisation and crime in Nigeria through a discussion of the main drivers and pressures influencing crime in rapidly expanding cities. The book critically explores the current state of crime and its impact on various people in these cities, including the urban poor. The extensive numerical analysis is further supplemented by interpretivist approaches, which help to yield fresh contextual evidence about the dynamics of crimes in urban settings. The book illustrates relationships between urbanisation and crime, particularly in a fast-growing contemporary African society. Rapid but highly disjointed growth is shown to affect power relations in Nigeria, thereby eventuating into activating crime and conflict for the residents of these urban centres. Furthermore, overbloated and decaying public infrastructures have elevated risk factors, which deepen the potential for urban crime (Olalekan 2014). In general, this book musters an evidence-driven argument that Nigerian cities are contemporaneously structured to drive and facilitate the growth of crimes even as there are several transformative gains from the urbanisation fever. Interestingly and paradoxically, both urbanisation and crime are byproducts of the colonial, post-colonial and neo-colonial experiences of Nigeria as a capitalist nation. By and large, the gains of urbanisation are well averred throughout the book. Further substantive analysis and discussion focus on a comparative assessment of Nigerian cities based on numerous dimensions of the spatial and temporal quality of crime. Critical inter- and intra-city drivers of crime are also evaluated.

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A robust appraisal of the consequence of urban crime is provided by developing a set of novel urban crime harm indices, which blend together parameters of crime prevalence and severity. This book also articulates and assesses the range of prevention and control strategies in operation across a number of cities and provides evidence-driven strategic and operational recommendations for combating crime and stimulating urban development across Nigeria. While these recommendations are not intended to provide a definitive blueprint for action, this book is offered as a mechanism for engaging key local stakeholders, civil society organisations, citizens and international partners in a thoughtful dialogue on crime, based on robust empirical analysis and good practices from within and outside Nigeria.

1.2 Why This Book Was Written Some of the critical factors that make this book distinctive include the boldness with which it contests some long-held opinions and positions on the subject of urban crime in developing country contexts, innovative use of multiple data signals including spatial data and the ability to complement a traditional criminological approach with a crime science approach. The regions with the fastest rate of urban growth are located in the Global South. While the positive contributions of urbanisation are fairly well established and narrated in literature, there is some paucity in focused diagnosis of some of the challenges that accompany urbanisation in the Global South. Urban crime, in particular, has received minimal attention recently. This book makes the bold argument that crime is among Nigeria’s most pressing urban problems. Furthermore, the book makes the case that while crime poses a clear threat to the general public, it is particularly damaging for poor urban neighbourhoods that have become stigmatised as a result of the persistence of the problem. In numerous urban centres, high rates of crime threaten human welfare, undermine the growth of small-, medium- and large-scale enterprises and impede social development. In recent decades, Nigerian cities have been trapped in a syndrome of interlocking characteristics of

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i­nsecurity, division, violence and fragility, which undermine sustained progress for social and economic development. These have often been studied through the lens of organised criminal activities such as terrorism. Since the emergence of Boko Haram and similar insurgency groups, scholarly and political attention as well as economic resources have been channelled largely towards counter-terrorism studies to the detriment of other forms of crime. Scholarly oversight of traditional forms of urban crimes in Nigeria has led to serious knowledge gaps about the following: • Spatial and temporal configuration of urban crime • Contemporary centrifugal and centripetal forces that stimulate urban crime • Scale of social, political and economic damage that urban communities suffer as a result of crime • Coping strategies that are being deployed by urban communities to combat crime • Effectiveness of some of these strategies and the future prospects of urban communities Many urban studies stakeholders (students, researchers, academics, practitioners and policymakers) are in dire need of enhanced methods, techniques and evidence for gauging the scale and patterns of urban crime and designing, implementing and effectively managing sustainable crime prevention and reduction strategies. Furthermore, the conceptual basis of numerous crime-related publications in Nigeria and Africa relies upon a range of traditional criminological theories. As of today, much of the literature on urban crime do not sufficiently examine the appropriateness of some of these theories for studying criminological behaviour within urban contexts in the Global South. A key question that this book addresses is: how well can mainstream Euro-American theories of urban crime explain the configuration of crime in the context of developing countries such as Nigeria? The book also contends against some widely held positions on fear of crime. For instance, it is commonplace in Euro-American criminology literature that fear of crime pervades urban and rural settings, indeed more than crime itself. The obvious linkage of high rates of crime in some

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sub-Saharan African cities resulting in higher degree of fear of crime suggests this. However, in the Nigerian context, there exist several paradoxes between actual risk and perceived risk, which suggest that the linkage between crime and fear is not as direct as it would intuitively appear. The book also sets out to address some of the limitations in conventional crime data for the representation of stocks and flows of crime within urban settings. Until now, the data available for studying criminogenic behaviour in Nigeria has been static in nature and restricted within the domains where they were collected. However, the rapid expansion in the use of spatial technologies and inter-operable software platforms has led to the generation of volumes of underutilised data. This book illustrates how a range of complementary datasets can be dynamically triangulated in order to generate fresh evidence on various dimensions of urbanisation and crime. For more than two decades, calls have been made for intercity comparative analysis of crime in Nigeria. Although a series of single-city studies have been conducted, there is no recent robust attempt to systematically relate the internal crime dynamics of cities in Nigeria against each other. A salient feature of this book lies in its methodological approach. Noting the nuance difference between Nigerian and Euro-American counterparts in terms of their milieu and sociology, this book contrasts Nigerian cities from a structured point of view. Essentially, the book blends together the peculiarities of Euro-America-Nigeria climes and both the traditional and non-traditional criminological theories. These are all about scholarship contestations. This interdisciplinary approach helps to ensure that the book improves readers’ understanding of urban crime and its interlocking causes in fast-growing, developing democracies.

1.3 Who Should Read This Book This book represents a key contribution to ongoing sustainable development debates in Nigeria and sub-Saharan Africa. It focuses on approaches for understanding and addressing crime within urban settings. The book is one of the first critical empirical studies in the field of urban studies in Nigeria with a specific focus on crime-related issues. Researchers will find

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the contrasting theoretical assumptions on comparative modelling and benchmarking of urban crime useful. Similarly, by exploring a robust set of cases from developed and developing economies, the book provides a series of new insights relevant to researchers. Many of the students who study urban criminogenic activities of cities in the Global South are often confronted with questions such as what sorts of analytical frameworks can be used to benchmark and compare crime patterns across African cities? Are Euro-American criminological theories suitable for contexts where they were not developed? If suitable, how can these theories be adapted and tested in a developing country context? What are the range of crime prevention techniques that are being used to combat urban crime in a developing country context? Are these techniques effective? In the absence of hard-to-get financial data, how else can the repercussions of crime on urban residents be estimated? This book addresses these questions which undergraduate, masters and research students often grapple with. Law enforcement practitioners in Nigeria and other African nations are increasingly searching for ways to build public trust. Practitioners and policymakers will benefit from the evidence-based approach that underpins this book. The book also serves as a useful resource for illustrating how unconscious bias can be avoided when targeting, distributing and monitoring national and regional policing resources.

1.4 A Note on Sources This book is partly based upon insights drawn from a number of deep empirical scientific projects. The research design underpinning these projects was therefore structured as a robust blueprint, which specifies two important processes—secondary and primary data collection processes. From a positivist perspective, we make use of secondary datasets. Secondary datasets are effective where primary data collection is infeasible (Bryman 2012). Secondly, and more importantly, elements of some of the issues that this book seeks to address can be addressed by interrogating previously collected and validated datasets.

1 Introduction 

7

In reconstructing the recent history and contemporary spatial trajectory of urbanisation in Nigeria since 1950, we have relied upon various sources. Projections from National Population Commission (NPC) have been used to contrast urban and rural population growth as well as shares of migrants. More importantly, the growth and spatial data of urban agglomerations was captured from the analysis of the Africapolis dataset. This dataset, which is produced by the Sahel and West Africa Club (SWAC) in collaboration with E-geopolis and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), represents a comprehensive and standardised geospatial database on cities and urbanisation dynamics across Africa. Satellite imagery dataset from the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) has also been used in this book. This dataset, which is fully discussed in Chap. 2, is used in two ways. Firstly, satellite imagery is used to evaluate the patterns of expansion of urban frontiers into rural settings. Secondly, the data has been used to estimate the physical extents of some urban centres. Digital boundaries of Local Government Areas (LGAs) were superimposed upon these urban extents in order to create a look-up table of LGAs to their corresponding cities. This was necessary and important for facilitating the aggregation of crime data to city level from corresponding LGAs. It is also noteworthy to mention that the Nigerian Geodemographic Classification System (NIGECS) (Ojo et al. 2012) was used in concert with the GRUMP dataset to link LGAs to their corresponding urban centres, and it also served as a useful data source for estimating relative levels of deprivation (one of the risk factors of crime in urban centres). The National Crime Victimisation Survey (NCVS) was used as the principal source of crime data. This survey is designed and implemented by CLEEN Foundation, Nigeria. The CLEEN Foundation (formerly known as Centre for Law Enforcement Education) is a non-­governmental organisation established in January 1998 with the mission of promoting public safety, security and accessible justice through the strategies of empirical research, legislative advocacy, demonstration programmes and publications, in partnership with the government, civil society and private sector. The NCVS data represents the most robust body of unofficial cross-sectional crime data available in Nigeria for undertaking pooled

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data analysis. Data collection has been in operation since 2005 through funding support from the Ford Foundation and the MacArthur Foundation. The survey is targeted at adults who are 18 years and above, and it provides valuable information for understanding the extent, trends and patterns of crime victimisation in Nigeria (Alemika 2013). The primary datasets were derived from two sources—focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Informant interviews were consulted widely. However, due to funding limitations, five cities were chosen from four geopolitical zones to host focus group discussions. These include Abuja, Kano, Lagos, Lokoja and Port-Harcourt. The cities have some peculiarities that make them pivotal for understanding urbanisation and crime in Nigeria. Abuja, with its federal capital status, presents some issues linked to social exclusion and crime on the fringes. The choice of Kano as an important city to be investigated in the north also draws from its historical antecedents and the fact that it is the commercial capital of Northern Nigeria. Lagos is a city state. Its cosmopolitan uniqueness cannot be overemphasised. It is a mixed bag for all sorts of urban security dynamics. Lokoja is a pivot state that connects the southern and northern divides, and the city presents some crime dynamics that must be investigated due to its geographical positioning as well. For instance, urban/rural banditry in the city has recorded enormous media reporting over the years (Egwu 2016). Finally, the oil-producing status of Port-Harcourt presents some peculiar crime issues that must be adequately documented and compared with other cities. Contextual information was captured from a broad range of stakeholder groups and organisations that contribute towards making the discussions in this book robust and defensible.

1.5 Structure of the Book This book is written to help readers gain proficiency in understanding some essential constructs underlying urbanisation and crime. The book should also help readers gain a good grasp of theory, scientific methodology as well as application of techniques that can be replicated in different urban environments. The book is essentially divided into three parts: The

1 Introduction 

9

first part covers the basics of history, concepts and theory. The second part of the book examines a range of techniques and illustrative applications. The third part of the book covers urban crime responses, drawing upon some good practice examples. Chapter 2 gently introduces the reader to the history, trends and drivers of urbanisation in Nigeria. Several conceptual clarifications are provided, followed by the historical contextualisation of urban development in Nigeria. The chapter also provides a critical discussion on key data sources for urban analysis in Nigeria. The discussion moves on to a detailed analysis of the recent trends and density of urbanisation as well as the driving forces. Cities are recognised as forces of transformation. However, the chapter also exhumes the range of challenges confronting Nigerian cities and makes the link between urbanisation and crime. Chapter 3 argues that an effective criminal justice system is fundamental to democratic governance and the rule of law in urban agglomerations. This chapter traces the colonial history of the Nigerian criminal justice system to contemporary times. This is followed by a critical review of numerous legal frameworks for criminal proceedings in Nigeria and a triangulation of the roles of key players in the criminal justice system. The chapter also provides an explanation of the factors that continue to weaken judicial institutions in the country together with the implications of these challenges for public safety within urban centres. Chapter 4 discusses the applicability of conventional environmental criminological theories in African urban settings. The chapter exposes the reader to a range of benefits of criminological theories and focuses on the key environmental theories. This chapter answers questions relating to how the mainstream theories might be deployed in experimental settings and how the efficacy of urban crime interventions can be monitored on the basis of these theories. The chapter makes a case for the development of a new wave of ecological theories that subsume the peculiarities of African urban settings. Chapter 5 concentrates on various techniques that can be used to comparatively evaluate crime across cities. The chapter explains the goals and rationale for undertaking intercity analysis of crime and argues that there are benefits for undertaking this type of analysis. This is followed by a detailed explanation of different methods for comparing cities on the

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basis of crime frequency, concentration, fear, specialisation, trends, drivers and impact of crime on urban dwellers. Chapter 6 uses a series of pooled cross-sectional crime datasets to showcase the contemporary configuration of crime across 36 Nigerian cities. The chapter presents fresh evidence on the geo-temporal structure of urban crime, focusing on the pervasiveness of crime and collective perception among urban dwellers. Three categories of urban crime are discussed. These include violent crimes, property crimes and serious sexual offences. Chapter 7 is used to detail the stimulants of crime in cities. This chapter subsumes two types of analysis. First, there is a discussion centred on macro-analysis of risk factors for urban crime. This analysis relates different types of crimes to factors such as relative deprivation, life expectancy, economic inequality, educational attainment, social and economic development and loss in human development potential. This is followed by a deep-dive analysis of some of the peculiar and emerging drivers of crime in typical Nigerian and African urban centres. Chapter 8 represents a first step towards making judgements about the consequence of urban crime using an approach that measures the harm that crime exerts on urban dwellers. This approach allows for the development of a composite index of harm that is based on the minimum sentence applicable to crime offences. Separate urban crime harm indices, which provide a means of understanding crime impact and resources demand, are developed for cities in northern and southern Nigeria. Chapter 9 explores some concrete and effective approaches to urban crime prevention and control found in a range of cities in the northern and southern parts of Nigeria, focusing on different actors. These approaches also include prevention strategies and programmes implemented by statutory and non-statutory actors. In order to curtail the spate of urban crime, the chapter suggests that there is a compelling requirement for the implementation of nuanced strategies that would improve opportunities for economic livelihood and limit access to small and light weapons. Chapter 10 concludes the book by pulling together the body of findings related to the dynamics and drivers of both the urbanisation process and crime. The book provides an integrated analysis combining the

1 Introduction 

11

v­ arious sources of information available on urbanisation and crime as well as their drivers and impacts. This concluding chapter also addresses the nexus among theory, data and evidence and considers mechanisms for improving public confidence in law enforcement organisations.

References Alemika, E. E. O. (2013). Criminal Victimisation, Policing and Governance in Nigeria. Abuja: CLEEN Foundation. Alemika, E. E. O., & Chukwuma, I. C. (2005). Criminal Victimisation and Fear of Crime in Lagos Metropolis, Nigeria. Lagos: CLEEN Foundation. Bloch, R., Fox, S., Monroy, J., & Ojo, A. (2015). Urbanisation and Urban Expansion in Nigeria (Urbanisation Research Nigeria (URN) Research Report). London: ICF International. Bryman, A. (2012). Social Research Methods. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Egwu, S. (2016). Kogi Under Siege of Bandits, Kidnappers. Leadership Online, April 17. Retrieved December 2, 2018, from http://leadership.ng/ news/518971/kogi-siege-bandits-kidnappers. Glaeser, E. (2011). Triumph of the City: How Our Greatest Invention Makes Us Richer, Smarter, Greener, Healthier and Happier. Basingstoke: Macmillan. Ojo, A., Vickers, D., & Ballas, D. (2012). The Segmentation of Local Government Areas: Creating a New Geography of Nigeria. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 5(1), 25–49. Olalekan, B.  G. (2014). Urbanisation, Urban Poverty, Slum and Sustainable Urban Development in Nigerian Cities: Challenges and Opportunities. Developing Country Studies, 4(18), 13–19. Onibokun, A.  G., & Faniran, A. (1995). Urban Research in Nigeria. Ibadan: French Institute for Research in Africa. World Bank. (2011). World Development Report: Conflict, Security and Development: 2011. Washington, DC: World Bank Publications.

2 Nigeria’s Urbanisation History, Trends, Drivers and Implications

2.1 U  rban Settlements and Urbanisation: Conceptual Clarification Prior to discussing the history of urbanisation in Nigeria, it is important to briefly clarify the concepts of urban and urbanisation. One of the complications arising from discussing issues related to urban settlements is that there is no widely accepted definition for the term ‘urban’ (Montgomery et  al. 2003; Bloom et  al. 2010). Definitions of urban spaces have been viewed through multiple lenses, which include size and density of population, occupational characteristics of city dwellers, distance between built-up areas, social class divides, predominant economic activity, homogeneity versus heterogeneity, individualism versus collectivism, mobility, materialism and diffusion of innovation (Buettner 2015; UN 2018). Size and density remain the most publicised parameters for defining urban settlements. The term ‘urban’ is also conceptualised differently by various African national urban and statistical agencies. Again, this presents complications in arriving at a convergence on what represents an urban settlement in Africa. Table  2.1 is based on information extracted from the United © The Author(s) 2019 A. Ojo, O. Ojewale, Urbanisation and Crime in Nigeria, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19765-0_2

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Table 2.1  Selected definitions of urban settlements across Africa Countries

Definition of Urban settlement

Botswana

Agglomeration of 5000 or more inhabitants where 75% of the economic activity is non-agricultural Commune of Bujumbura Administrative centres of prefectures and localities of 5000 or more inhabitants Governorates of Cairo, Alexandria, Port Said, Ismailia, Suez, frontier governorates and capitals of other governorates, as well as district capitals (Markaz) District centres and localities with 300 dwellings and/or 1500 inhabitants or more Localities of 2000 or more inhabitants Localities of 2000 or more inhabitants All townships and town planning areas and all district centres Towns with proclaimed legal limits Capital city, capitals of the departments and districts Agglomerations of 10,000 or more inhabitants Places with some form of local authority Localities of administrative and/or commercial importance or with population of 5000 or more inhabitants. Localities proclaimed as urban Population living in communes 16 gazetted townships Localities of 5000 or more inhabitants, the majority of whom depend on non-agricultural activities

Burundi Comoros Egypt

Equatorial Guinea Ethiopia Liberia Malawi Mauritius Niger Senegal South Africa Sudan Swaziland Tunisia Tanzania Zambia

Source: Authors’ elaborations based on UN (2005). 2005 Demographic Yearbook. New York: United Nations

Nation (UN) Demographic Yearbook of 2005. It provides a summary of how 16 African countries classify urban settlements. From the different connotations subsumed in Table 2.1, we discover that for various African national urban and statistical agencies, the concept of urban captures a blend of physical, demographic, socio-economic and political interpretations. In Nigeria, what constitutes an urban area remains conceptually and practically contestable. According to Falade (2009), the Nigerian National Population Commission (NPC) defines an urban area based on two parameters. Firstly, based on population, an urban centre in Nigeria is described as an agglomeration with a minimum population of 20,000 people. Secondly, due to constitutional provisions, all settlements ­operating as local government (LG) headquarters in Nigeria are assigned

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15

an urban status. The threshold of 20,000 people used in Nigeria is a relatively high minimum population threshold compared to many other countries on the African continent (Bloch et al. 2015a). The general view across the academic and policy community in Nigeria is that urban areas are large settlements with high concentration of people and diverse socio-­ economic functions and activities. Rural settlements, by contrast, are marked by low-density and scattered population patterns and the dominance of agricultural economies. There are different accounts of what urbanisation means in Nigerian urban literature. Gbadegesin and Aluko (2010) describe it as the proportion of the total national population residing in urban centres. The problem with this definition is that it is rather loose and it fails to capture urbanisation through the process lens. Urbanisation is framed as a dynamic process that indicates growth in terms of population, sizes of agglomerations and the numbers of urban settlements. Urbanisation represents an upsurge in the share of a country’s population residing in those settlements defined as urban areas (UN 2018). It happens when urban population growth outpaces rural population growth. The growth of urban population is a function of natural increase or endogenous growth, the migration of people from rural to urban centres and the transformation and reclassification of rural settlements as urban settlements encroach and swallow them up (Bloch et al. 2015a). Furthermore, it is noteworthy to mention that a complex interrelationship between rural and urban centres is implanted within the urbanisation process. As smaller towns are transformed into bigger cities, or existing cities absorb adjacent rural settlements, the urbanisation process triggers changes in land use categories and a generalised transformation of land use coverage (Ujoh et al. 2010; Jiboye 2011; Ade and Afolabi 2013).

2.2 B  rief Historical Context of Urbanisation in Nigeria It is impossible to delve into the history of urban research and urbanisation in Nigeria without acknowledging the pioneering research efforts of Professor Akin Mabogunje, a profound scholar who has also been fit-

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tingly described as the ‘avant garde’ of the spatial analysis paradigm in Nigerian urban geography (Okafor 1989). The revolutionary research efforts of Mabogunje raised a number of fundamental issues on the history, dynamics and processes of urban development in Nigeria (Filani and Okafor 2006) and also led to the publication of his first book, entitled Urbanisation in Nigeria. The book was published in 1968. Akin Mabogunje’s works established and advanced several arguments and theories on urbanisation in Nigeria. He argued that Nigeria’s urbanisation reflected certain forces that were exhibited globally at the time. He suggested that urbanisation in Africa was a product of failed development policies, particularly the disarticulation of rural economies that fuelled rural-urban migration. Mabogunje also argued that urbanisation is related to economic growth, although according to him, urbanisation did not, in itself, cause growth in the economy, especially when it engendered parasitic cities that were unable to bolster economic growth. This argument remains contentious. Mabogunje postulated that for towns and cities to be important centres for economic growth, their efficient planning and management is crucial to the rate of growth of the country’s economy. Mabogunje’s works have been classified broadly under four broad themes, namely: • • • •

Urbanisation and urban development Regional development Environment and development Governance and social issues

Mabogunje’s research legacy helps to chronicle some aspects of Nigeria’s rich urbanisation history. Following the amalgamation of the northern and southern protectorates by British colonial administrators in 1914, Nigeria became an independent nation in 1960. Following independence, Nigeria adopted a Republican constitution in 1963 (Gordon 2003). This ultimately resulted in the establishment of a three-tier government structure comprising federal, state and local governments. The number of state- and local-level administrative units has changed over time. At independence, Nigeria was a federation of three regions—northern, western and eastern regions. Two provinces were detached from the west-

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17

ern region in 1963. These provinces formed the mid-western region. Major political and administrative changes occurred in 1967, resulting in the creation of 12 states and the demise of regional autonomy (Gordon 2003). In 1967, seven additional states were created, bringing the total number of states to 19. In 1987, two new states were established. These were followed by nine more states in 1991. The Federal Capital Territory (Abuja) was also formally established in 1991. Six additional states were created in 1996, bringing the total number of states to 36, plus the Federal Capital Territory. Today, Nigeria is politically and administratively divided into 6 geopolitical zones, 36 states and 774 Local Government Areas (LGAs), shown in Fig. 2.1. According to Mabogunje (1968), there were relatively large population settlements in Nigeria prior to the period of colonial rule. These

Fig. 2.1  Political and administrative geography of Nigeria

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settlements thrived mainly on proceeds from trade (including slave trade) and administration. Similar to many other parts of the world, the metamorphosis of early urbanism across northern Nigeria was primarily a function of trade and politics. The northern urban enclaves served as routes for facilitating trans-Saharan trade.1 They also functioned as political capitals for the expanding states of the northern Savannah (Mabogunje 1965). Early urbanism in southern Nigeria was dominated by the rise of Yoruba expansionist city states, such as Lagos and Ibadan, together with the Benin Empire (Fourchard 2012). Rapid competition also grew amongst coastal towns in the south for control of the trade from the interior to the Atlantic (Gordon 2003). Furthermore, the increasing activities of traders from Europe stimulated large-scale in-flock of people to these coastal cities in the south.2 Evidence extracted from the UN-Habitat Global Report on Human Settlements 2003 further indicate that the period of colonisation also triggered changes in the morphological patterns of towns across Nigeria. A number of new towns such as Kaduna and Nsukka became administrative headquarters, while others such as Enugu and Jos metamorphosed into industrial centres (UN-Habitat 2003). The south-east area of Nigeria witnessed much of these transitioning morphological changes during the colonial era (Abumere 1994). Prior to British rule, urban growth featured in much of the urban enclaves. However, during the colonial era, British administrators encouraged the emergence of new cities in the southern protectorate largely for processing and exporting raw materials transported from the north and other parts of the country (Fourchard 2012). After independence, Nigeria experienced further rapid urbanisation. The resident populations of Lagos and Ibadan was in excess of half a million people by the early 1960s (Aniah 2001; Rotimi 2003). Nigeria’s urban population expanded swiftly over the past 60 years. There is also an expectation that population growth will continue to rise in the coming decades (Bloch et al. 2015a).  The earliest northern urban enclaves included cities such as Kano, Katsina, Zaria, Sokoto and Borno. 2  The main coastal cities of the south included Lagos, Badagri, Brass, Bonny, Calabar and Port Harcourt. 1

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19

2.3 U  rban Data, Trends and Scale of Contemporary Urbanisation Robust measurements of the scale and trends of contemporary urbanisation in Nigeria are dependent on the availability of reliable data. There is much debate around the reliability of demographic data in Nigeria as well as the pace of urbanisation (Potts 2012a; Bloch et al. 2015a; Farrell 2018). While most scholars seem to converge around the conclusion that urban population growth is generally strong, the base datasets used for these estimations often come under fierce scrutiny and criticisms. One of the major impediments to advancing knowledge about the scale and trends of urbanisation in Nigeria is the problem associated with access to reliable official datasets from relevant government agencies. Population politics in Nigeria is both directly and indirectly associated with the financial resources that are disbursed at national, state and local levels for public use (Joseph 2014). Due to this fiscal allocation model, Nigerian state and local government officials often scramble to inflate their local population figures during enumeration seasons, and this habit distorts the validity or reliability of official population datasets (Gordon 2003; Ellis 2016). Ojo and Ezepue (2011) have argued that the allocation of fiscal and other resources in Nigeria and across Africa should embrace approaches that are place and time sensitive, evidence-led and based on the rigorous segmentation of needs, rather than one-size-fits-all models that depend solely on total population counts. Many researchers find that data is systematically constricted by the same sources from which they should be derived (Holos 1992; Ojo et al. 2012). Similarly, some government agencies still utilise outdated legal frameworks controlling the public release of urban data, which often hinders access to such datasets. For instance, the Nigerian NPC has overall responsibility for design, data collection, analysis and dissemination of the Population and Housing Census statistics, which should normally yield base demographic information about urbanisation trends. Post-­ independence censuses were conducted in 1962, 1963, 1973, 1991 and 2006. Up until 1991, the NPC published census results for urban and rural settlements. However, the NPC has failed to publish urban demo-

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graphic statistics from the 2006 Census. Not only is this failure detrimental for urban research in Nigeria, it further adds to the controversy surrounding the reliability of the 2006 Census results (Bamgbose 2009). Over time, these data gaps have contributed, in no small measure, towards entrenching serious research and knowledge gaps in the Nigerian urban sector. Figure 2.2 shows the trajectory of urban and rural populations in Nigeria since 1950 based on estimates from population censuses and projections of the NPC. As a result of the weaknesses in the reliability of official data sources and estimates, much of the attempts of researchers to estimate the scale and trajectory of urbanisation in Nigeria now depend on at least four unofficial data sources listed below. • • • •

The Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) Dataset WorldPop Dataset The Africapolis Dataset The United Nations (UN) World Urbanisation Prospects 100 90 80 70

%

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2025

Year Urban Pop.

Rural Pop.

Fig. 2.2  Percentage shares and projected urban and rural population in Nigeria (1950–2025). Source: Authors calculations based on National Population Censuses and NPC projections

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21

We review the strengths and weaknesses of these prominent datasets which are frequently used for contemporary urban research.

2.3.1 GRUMP Dataset The GRUMP dataset were produced by combining several disparate datasets. As a base, the project uses the first consistent globally geo-­ referenced population dataset—the Gridded Population of the World (GPW), developed at the National Centre for Geographic Information Analysis (NCGIA) in 1995 (Balk and Yetman 2004). The GPW was integrated with night-time lights.3 This dataset was derived from the United States Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) (Elvidge et al. 1997). Night-time lights and ancillary geographic information were used to identify urban extents. Furthermore, these base datasets were integrated with additional information including Census (or census-type) inputs on the population size of settlements and their corresponding latitude and longitude coordinates. GRUMP uses data from official sources such as the census as its base rather than predicting it based on probability coefficients. Additionally, GRUMP data is supplied in three formats, which enables urbanisation analysis and visualising to be conducted in an integrated way. These formats include: • A human settlements database with populations of 1000 or more people • An urban-rural population grid, with an output resolution of approximately 1 km • An urban extent database with a population of more than 1000 people One of the major criticisms levelled against the GRUMP datasets is that the methods overestimate the real extents of urban areas. This is described in Elvidge et al. (2004) as a “blooming effect” resulting from the sensor used to capture the satellite images. There is also an additional challenge posed from the use of night-time lights. Some smaller settle A range of global composite images, constructed from cloud-free, night-time satellite pictures aimed at capturing the spread of humans across the planet’s cities. 3

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ments, particularly in developing regions of the world, are not frequently illuminated, and as a result often escape detection. Although population is estimated for three time periods (1990, 1995 and 2000), the night-­ time lights used in the methodology refer to one point in time only (1994/1995). Therefore, using the urban extents dataset for the analysis of urban change may be misleading.

2.3.2 WorldPop Dataset In order to model settlement extents, population distributions and population densities, the WorldPop project adapts a methodology that synergises the relationship between population and land cover at fine spatial resolution. The global land cover (GlobCover) dataset was sourced from a time series of Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) images acquired from December 2004 to June 2006. For Nigeria, 2006 Census statistics were integrated with the satellite images and the land cover dataset. The range of the Average Spatial Resolution (ASR)4 of the Nigerian census data provided is 34 km. The impetus for developing the WorldPop datasets is underpinned by at least three factors: • The notion that previously developed gridded population datasets such as GRUMP lack spatial detail and information on rural settlements, which, according to Linard et al. (2012), make them inappropriate for accessibility and connectivity analyses • The dated input census statistics used to develop previous datasets • The view that previous datasets utilised input information available at relatively low spatial resolutions Among the three datasets discussed in this section, WorldPop provides data at the finest spatial resolution—100 m. The WorldPop methodological approach also uses subnational (LGA) census statistics as its base.  The ASR measures the effective resolution of administrative units in kilometres. It is calculated as the square root of the land area divided by the number of administrative units. An ASR higher than 50 indicates an average size of administrative units over 2500 km2 (Linard et al. 2012). 4

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This method helps improve the spatial resolution of the output dataset. This dataset uses a rigorous methodology and the estimates produced for urban agglomerations, such as Lagos, Nigeria, are more recent and more accurate than the Africapolis estimates. A major weakness of the WorldPop dataset is its estimation of population density. There is the suggestion that it portrays population density as being greater in urban peripheral areas and villages rather than urban centres (Rose and Bright 2014). This implies that population estimates for urban fringes are likely to be higher than expected. This limitation may be connected to one of the objectives of the WorldPop project which is to develop gridded populations that address the problems of spatial detail in rural settlements.

2.3.3 Africapolis Dataset The dataset developed through the Africapolis project uses a geo-­statistical methodology which cross-references satellite images with an extensive collection of ancillary official statistical datasets. In the case of Nigeria, census data over four periods are matched to satellite data. The four census periods include: • • • •

Population Census (1951–1953) Population Census (1963) Population Census (1991) Population and Housing Census (2006)

The analysis allowed for decadal population estimates (1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010) to be produced for Nigerian urban settlements. The strength of the Africapolis data lies in the fact that it embeds census data as its base. However, methodological weaknesses means that outputs are grossly underestimated. Some agglomerations with smaller populations are not included in the analysis due to lack of base data. A major deficiency of the method used in developing the Africapolis database is that it introduces errors with regard to the total populations that actually live in urban agglomerations

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(Moriconi-Ebrard et al. 2016). The estimates derived from the Africapolis method are therefore unreliable. For instance, the Africapolis estimate for Lagos in 2010 was 10.5 million people. However, a parallel count of the 2006 Census conducted by the Lagos State Government found the state population to be 17.5  million people. In addition to this weakness, Africapolis results do not include digital/GIS extents of urban settlements, which make it impossible to visually assess urban expansion and related change process.

2.3.4 United Nations World Urbanisation Prospects Due to its longevity, the UN World Urbanisation Prospects is probably the most cited urban population dataset among the four sets of datasets discussed in this section of the book. The Populations Division publishes revised urban population statistics on a biennial basis. In doing this, the UN relies on data sourced from national statistical agencies of different countries. The data draws upon systematic studies of population size and characteristics and of all three components of population change (fertility, mortality and migration). These datasets also reflect the differences in definitions and parameters used to describe urban centres in these countries (UN 2018). For instance, the 2018 edition of the World Urbanisation Prospects was released for 233 countries. Urbanisation estimates for 25.3% of these countries are based on administrative criteria alone, while population size and density parameters accounted for 15.9% of the countries. Other parameters combined include administrative and urban characters (8.6%); population size/density and urban characteristics (8.6%); administrative and population size/density (7.3%); economic, urban characteristics and population size/density (6.0%); entire population (5.2%); no clear definition (5.2%); administrative, economic, population size/density and urban characteristics (4.7%); administrative, urban characteristics and population size/density (4.3%); economic and population size/density (3.9%); urban characteristics (3.4%); and administrative, economic and population size/density (1.7%) (UN 2018). A major criticism often levied against the UN data is the resulting heterogeneity and inconsistency generated by combining these different criteria (Buettner 2015).

25

2  Nigeria’s Urbanisation History, Trends, Drivers and Implications 

2.3.5 Urbanisation Trends The trajectory of urbanisation in Nigeria is compared with the West African sub-region using two datasets (UN and Africapolis) in Fig. 2.3. The UN estimates cover the period 1950 to 2050, while for Africapolis, resident urban population estimates do not extend beyond 2010. Both estimates underscore at least three popular arguments about Nigeria’s urban growth. The first argument is that Nigeria’s level of urbanisation over the last six decades has extended rapidly (Bloch et al. 2015a). In a general sense, both datasets plotted in Fig. 2.3 seem to agree that between 1950 and 2010, Nigerian urban centres grew by a combined minimum average of 10 million people every decade. The largest increase occurred at the turn of the current millennium. During the period between 2000 and 2010, Nigeria recorded more than 25 million new urban dwellers. 80.0 70.0 60.0

%

50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0

UN Estimates - Nigeria Africapolis Estimates - Nigeria

2050

2045

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

1955

0.0

1950

10.0

UN Estimates - West Africa Africapolis Estimates - West Africa

Fig. 2.3  Levels of urbanisation in Nigeria and West Africa, 1950–2050. Source: Authors’ calculations based on United Nations (2018) & e-Geopolis—SWAC/OECD, 2015 data

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A second deduction from the analysis is that Nigeria is currently in the accelerated stage of its urban transition with more than half of its total population living in urban agglomerations (Farrell 2018). This also suggests that the share of urban residents will continue to grow relatively fast in the coming decades. The UN estimates suggest that seven in ten Nigerians will live in urban centres by 2050. The third observation is an example of the type of dispute that Nigeria’s urban growth estimates tend to generate. There are disagreements about how fast Nigerian urban centres are actually growing (Potts 2012a). In Fig. 2.3, for instance, the Africapolis estimates suggest that the level of urbanisation in Nigeria has always been, and remains, much higher than the West African average. Conversely, the UN estimates suggest that there has not been much difference between urbanisation levels in Nigeria and the West African sub-region over the last six decades although future trends indicate that Nigeria will outpace the rest of the region.

2.3.6 Density and Expansion of Urban Frontiers To illustrate urban density, we start by evaluating the rate at which urban agglomerations have been springing up in Nigeria since 2050. The maps shown in Fig. 2.4 are based on Africapolis datasets. For the sake of consistency with the official definition of urban centres in Nigeria, the urbanisation criterion used to produce the maps is the one set by Nigerian statistical agencies (settlements with a minimum of 20,000 inhabitants). Settlement hierarchies are systems used to rank or categorise human habitations on the basis of parameters such as population, services, function or the area covered by such settlements. We have classified the urban agglomerations shown in Fig. 2.4 into four settlement hierarchies based on total resident population. These hierarchies are also used in later chapters of this book. Metropolitan areas have residential populations above 1 million people. Large cities have populations ranging between half a million and 1  million people. Medium-sized cities comprise less than half a million inhabitants but greater than 300,000 people. Small cities have less than 300,000 inhabitants and they account for 14% of the study cities.

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Fig. 2.4  Spatial distribution of urban agglomerations in Nigeria (1950–2010). Source: Authors’ elaborations based on e-Geopolis—SWAC/OECD, 2015 data. Note: Settlements shown in these maps have a minimum population of 20,000 residents based on Nigeria’s official definition of urban centres (continued)

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Fig. 2.4  (continued)

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Fig. 2.4  (continued)

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Fig. 2.4  (continued)

Based on the results from the analysis, there were 50 settlements with more than 20,000 residents in Nigeria in 1950 with only one mediumsized city—Ibadan—having a population of just over 436,000 people. Approximately 52% of urban centres were situated in the south-west geopolitical zone of Nigeria at this time. By 1960, the number of urban agglomerations had doubled to around 109 settlements. Two new large cities (Lagos and Ibadan) had emerged in the south-west geopolitical zone which still accounted for half of the total number of urban agglomerations in Nigeria. The period between 1960 and 1970 witnessed the emergence of 26 new cities, bringing the total number of urban agglomerations to 135 settlements. Ibadan maintained its status as a large city, while Lagos had outpaced it to become a metropolis of more than 1 million urban dwellers. By the year 1980, Nigeria had 191 urban settlements with population over 20,000. The density of urban agglomerations situated in the south-­ west geopolitical zone had dropped to 34% with the closest competitor being the north-central geopolitical zone with a 17% share of urban set-

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tlements. By 1980, Ibadan had joined Lagos as a metropolitan centre with over 1 million people. From 1980 to 1990, around 89 new agglomerations were added to bring the total number of cities to 280. The north-central geopolitical zone was trailing behind the south-west geopolitical zone in terms of its share of the total number of urban centres in the country. The north-­ central recorded a 20% share of all cities in Nigeria compared to 27% concentrated in the south-west geopolitical zone. Kano in the north-west had also assumed the status of a metropolis by 1990. At the turn of the millennium in the year 2000, Nigeria had 392 urban centres with over 20,000 residents. There were 4 metropolitan centres Lagos, Kano, Ibadan and Onitsha. The south-west (24% share of urban settlements) and north-central (21% share of urban settlements) were neck and neck by the year 2000. The south-south geopolitical zone had also become quite dense in terms of the concentration of cities accounting for 18% of the national share. By 2010, Nigeria had added 144 new cities, bringing the total number of urban agglomerations to 536. A total of ten cities had assumed the status of metropolis and ten more were now large cities. The metropolitan centres include Lagos, Onitsha, Kano, Ibadan, Uyo, Nsukka, Port Harcourt, Benin City, Abuja and Aba. Apart from the south-east ­geopolitical zone, all the other five regions recorded a double-digit share of the total number of urban agglomerations in the country. The southeast had a 7% share of all cities. A lot of urban centres sprung up across Nigeria from 1950 to 2010. These were initially concentrated in the south-west geopolitical zone. The result of standard deviation tests for the spread of urban centres across the six geopolitical zones in 1950 was 17.5. This figure had dropped to 8.8 in 1980, and by 2010, the standard deviation was 5.4, indicating a better spread in the distribution of urban agglomerations. A number of deductions can be made from Fig. 2.5. Firstly, there is an indication that urban agglomerations are still springing up in four geopolitical zones (north-­ central, south-south, north-east and north-west). The north-central rose from the least dense geopolitical zone in 1950 to the region with the second largest concentration of urban agglomerations in 2010. Another important observation is the declining share of urban agglomerations

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% Share of Urban Agglomerations

60 50 40 30 20 10 0

1950

1960

1970

North Central South East

1980 North East South South

1990

2000

2010

North West South West

Fig. 2.5  Trajectory of shares of urban agglomerations by geopolitical zones (1950–2010). Source: Authors’ calculations based on e-Geopolis—SWAC/OECD, 2015 data

noticeable in the south-west and south-east. This does not suggest a decline in the resident urban population in these zones. However, it indicates that that both zones may be nearing saturation points in terms of their capacity to produce new urban centres. Furthermore, this decline in the share of urban settlements could suggest that existing urban agglomerations in these zones are expanding and probably swallowing up suburban and rural enclaves. Another dimension of urban density is illustrated in Table  2.2. The table is used to present the average number of urban residents per urban agglomeration in each of the six geopolitical zones from 1950 to 2010. Results presented in this table suggest that contemporary human population density is greatest for urban centres located in the south-east, southwest and north-west geopolitical zones. A similar finding was also reported in the work of Bloch et al. (2015a), who used a different method and completely different datasets. They evaluated urban population density per LGA using data from the NPC and WorldPop. Bloch et al. (2015a)

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2  Nigeria’s Urbanisation History, Trends, Drivers and Implications  Table 2.2  Urban population to urban agglomeration ratio (thousands) Geopolitical Zone North Central North East North West South East South South South West Urban Nigeria

1950 77 57 100 65 65 93 84

1960 95 65 124 73 78 87 86

1970 86 64 151 74 88 107 97

1980 83 78 173 83 94 131 108

1990 94 105 210 114 104 167 131

2000 93 93 168 151 100 184 131

2010 104 81 134 357 111 206 146

Source: Authors’ calculations based on e-Geopolis—SWAC/OECD, 2015 data

discovered that there are four urban fields in Nigeria. These results are consistent with the findings displayed in Table 2.2. We now consider the expansion of urban frontiers by drawing upon some visual results produced by one of the authors of this book in the recent work of Bloch et al. (2015a). The maps displayed in Fig. 2.6 were produced from data extracted from the GRUMP website. The results for Lagos were supplemented with data from the Atlas of Urban Expansion, which mainly focuses on monitoring selected cities with a minimum of 100,000 inhabitants. Economic growth and rapid urbanisation in Nigeria and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are being accompanied by unprecedented urban spatial expansion. According to Angel et al. (2011), forecasts for global urban land cover are actually highest in SSA, where, based on projections, land cover is expected to increase 12-fold between 2000 and 2050. Efforts aimed at developing a better understanding of how urban spatial expansion is crafting new forms and patterns of peripheral development in Nigeria prove that growth dynamics are driving a broader process of expansion (Bloch et al. 2015a). This process is characterised by large-­ scale construction and real estate development. In essence, these activities are fundamentally reshaping many Nigerian metropolitan areas. Lagos is a practical example of an urban centre that now forms a much larger megacity region spanning 180 km2 and 20 LGAs. Lagos is now popularly referred to as a city state. Abuja and Ibadan also exhibit similar traits. As illustrated in Fig. 2.6, traditional administrative boundaries do not conform to the physical expansion of cities. This creates significant challenges in terms of administration and indeed the collection of city-related data. Numerous Nigerian cities experience growth by expansion at the

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Fig. 2.6  Expansion of urban frontiers in (a) Calabar (1990–2010) and (b) Zaria (1990–2010). Source: Authors’ elaborations previously published in Bloch et  al. (2015a), based on Centre for International Earth Science Information Network— CIESIN—Columbia University, International Food Policy Research Institute—IFPRI, The World Bank, and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical—CIAT, 2011

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edges of existing urban agglomerations. Spatial expansion and densification are interrelated processes that the urban and land use planning, financing and management systems, state and local governments must come to terms with in Nigeria. Furthermore, the overall urban development process is becoming more complex because of the involvement of formal and informal actors (Bloch et al. 2015b), domestic and foreign institutions (Babatunde and Low 2013) and new and emerging finance networks (Iwuagwu and Iwuagwu 2015). The involvement of these complex players poses new challenges for urban planning, management and governance. Furthermore, the rapid physical expansion of Nigerian cities is creating new suburban areas. This creates administrative challenges for the governance of peri-urban interfaces that may be classified as both urban and rural areas (Ogu 2005). There is a critical need to re-evaluate the role of conventional urban planning practices in order to respond to some of these new challenges. In addition to the aforementioned issues, urban economic pressures have also been identified as drivers of physical expansion in Nigerian cities. Cities attract civil servants who work in key Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs). Housing affordability is one of the biggest challenges that civil servants grapple with (Ogunbajo et al. 2015). For civil servants, the lower the rent-to-income ratio, the better for them. The housing affordability debacle pushes urban dwellers further into the hinterlands, thereby creating artificial expansion. Oduwaye and Enisan (2011) also suggested that the dynamics of the global economy impacts on the physical shape of Nigerian cities. According to them, urban spatial structures respond in very different ways to fluctuations in the global economy. As the Nigerian economy grows or shrinks due to global forces, numerous economic activities appear. These new economic activities are sometimes reflected in the emergence of complex and chaotic urban forms, marked by the irregularity of their configurations. Nigerian cities have expanded with minimal regulation and high levels of disregard for guidelines for maintaining physical planning and urban design standards (Gandy 2006; Jiboye 2011; Ogbazi 2013). This disregard generates a planning and policy vacuum, in which developers can erect physical infrastructure without any consultation with relevant regu-

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lating agencies. While many Nigerian cities have developed master plans that take into account various socio-economic processes driving their expansion (Barredo et al. 2004), they are often ineffectively used (Olujimi 2009; Ade and Afolabi 2013). This is frequently the effect of a combination of the absence of financial resources and a lack of political will.

2.4 What Is Driving Urbanisation in Nigeria? Urbanisation is principally the consequence of three factors. Firstly, the process can be triggered by large-scale movements of human populations from rural to urban centres. Much of Africa’s urbanisation history has been linked to this, although there are now arguments that this factor has reduced in terms of its relative importance. Secondly, urbanisation can also be the result of natural increases in human population. This is often associated with high levels of fertility. Thirdly, urbanisation can result from the revision of municipal boundaries as expansion occurs and the urban frontier moves out into the peri-urban and even rural peripheries. This process results in the absorption of settlements that were not previously categorised as urban. The interphase between Nigerian urban and rural ­settlements remains porous. Therefore, there is a high degree of interconnection and interdependence between them. This continuum is often characterised by rural-urban linkages based around economic livelihoods (Tacoli et al. 2015). There are ongoing scholarly debates about what is really accounting for the rapid pace of Nigeria’s urbanisation. In the remainder of this section, we evaluate scholarly arguments in support of and against the three principal forces of rural-urban migration, natural increase and the transformation and reclassification of rural settlements into urban enclaves. Many of the earliest enquiries into the causes of Nigeria’s rapid urban transition concluded that rural-urban migration, fuelled by economic factors, was responsible for the increase in urban population. Mabogunje’s pioneering work hinted that early urbanisation in Nigeria was a product of rural-urban migration underpinned by failed development policies, particularly the neglecting of rural economies (Mabogunje 1968). Subsequent scholars noted that following the oil boom of the 1970s, the emergence of urban economic pull factors, in addition to the push factors

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of low-income and heightened poverty levels in rural areas, stimulated the migration of young men and latterly young women (Mberu 2005; de Brauw et al. 2014). In 2010, The NPC conducted an Internal Migration Survey to provide baseline data on internal migration in Nigeria and to establish the causes and courses of movement of people across Nigeria. The study included 24,267 respondents, among which 11,257 were migrants (NPC 2012). The NPC indicates that a probability sampling procedure that involved a multistage stratified sampling was adopted in selecting respondents for the survey, although this procedure is not detailed in the subsequent report. The NPC has so far failed to publicly release the raw data from this national survey; therefore, the results presented here are based on extracts from its 2011 report. Table 2.3 shows the proportion of migrants in an urban and rural ‘place’ of residence in each of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Overall, it was estimated that six in ten internal migrants reside in urban places, with four in ten migrants residing in rural places. The weakness of the NPC analysis is that it fails to specify whether the origins of these migrants were rural or urban in nature. Therefore, it is impossible to determine from Nigeria’s most recent ‘official’ study on internal migration (at least until the NPC provides access to the raw datasets) if more people are moving from rural to urban areas or if the urban population is simply being redistributed across other urban enclaves. Farrell (2018) observed that internal migration is still often perceived largely through a rural-urban lens amongst economists who study the growth of cities. De Haas (2008) stated that “migration leads to further migration because the social, cultural and economic effects of migration further undermine social cohesion and productivity in sending communities” (De Haas 2008, p. 19). There are, therefore, some urban scholars who still perceive migration as a significant driver of contemporary urbanisation process in Nigeria (Tofowomo 2008; Olujimi 2009; Jiboye 2011). In the view of these scholars, it is the arrival of newcomers from surrounding rural hinterlands that primarily allows for the spatial expansion of human settlements in Nigeria. This hypothesis is somewhat stalled partly because all three studies lack the empirical basis to authenticate their conclusions.

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Table 2.3  Share of migrants in an urban or rural place of residence (2010) State

Urban (%)

Rural (%)

Abia Abuja (FCT) Adamawa Akwa Ibom Anambra Bauchi Bayelsa Benue Borno Cross River Delta Ebonyi Edo Ekiti Enugu Gombe Imo Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Kogi Kwara Lagos Nasarawa Niger Ogun Ondo Osun Oyo Plateau Rivers Sokoto Taraba Yobe Zamfara Nigeria

48.4 85.1 58.3 16.7 98 18.2 62.4 27.9 40.8 41.5 80.4 90.3 72.6 74 86.2 58.5 47.7 37 68.4 55.1 55.7 37 60.3 69.7 97 34 67 80.6 67.7 70.2 84 56.7 72.4 53.1 31.5 49.1 58.3 59.9

51.6 14.9 41.7 83.3 2 81.8 37.6 72.1 59.2 58.5 19.6 9.7 27.4 26 13.8 41.5 52.3 63 31.6 44.9 44.3 63 39.7 30.3 3 66 33 19.4 32.3 29.8 16 43.3 27.6 46.9 68.5 50.9 41.7 40.1

Source: NPC (2012). National Internal Migration Survey, 2010. Abuja: National Population Commission

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Some of the earlier suggestions about the diminishing role of rural-­ urban migration as a driver of contemporary urban population growth within Nigerian cities were initially reported in the works of some urban scholars (see: Parnell and Walawege 2011; Falade 2012; Potts 2012a, b). These works rightly observed that the importance of natural increase as a crucial element influencing urbanisation in Nigeria had not received adequate research attention. However, in somewhat controversial circumstance, Potts (2012a) took her argument a step further. Based on data from the Africapolis project, she claimed that “there can be no doubt that the level of urbanisation in Nigeria has been overestimated” (Potts 2012a, p. 1386). Furthermore, she suggested that the evidence “is overwhelmingly in favour of the interpretation that urbanisation in Nigeria has slowed dramatically” (Potts 2012a, p. 1388). A further contentious claim in her paper was the suggestion that “it is surely now undeniable that the shift from rural to urban in this part of the world has usually become very gradual or stagnant or, in some cases, reversed” (Potts 2012a, p. 1386). Potts suggested that Nigeria will remain largely rural in the foreseeable future and argued that policymakers should adjust their expectations and objectives accordingly. These claims have attracted some criticism and have since been rebutted (Bloch et al. 2015a; Farrell 2018). In a recent study, Bloch et al. (2015a) combined a variety of geospatial and secondary statistical datasets to undertake baseline analysis on Nigeria’s contemporary urbanisation and to ascertain the primary factor(s) influencing Nigeria’s rapid pace of urban population growth. They identified four large urban fields situated in the south-west, south-­east, north-west and north-central geopolitical zones. In terms of substantive findings, Bloch et al. (2015a) concluded that the primary cause of Nigeria’s rapid urbanisation is population growth shaped by falling rates of mortality combined with high fertility. They hypothesised that natural increase plays a significant role in the urbanisation process but stopped short of calling it the leading factor. They acknowledge that rural-urban migration also contributes to the population growth within urban centres but that its influence is probably exaggerated not just in Nigeria but perhaps across SSA. This work represents the first robust attempt to utilise an evidence-based approach based on demographic data, to demystify the underlying causes of contemporary urbanisation and the expansion of

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urban settlements in Nigeria. However, the analysis may still be slightly criticised for its empirical weakness and failure to fully integrate the different contributing factors using a rigorous framework to quantify the actual value of the contribution of each factor towards the growth of urban centres. Farrell (2018) has built upon the work of Bloch et  al. (2015a) by empirically disaggregating the various components of urban growth in Nigeria and assessing their individual contributions to urban growth. Using demographic accounting and spatial analysis methods, Farrell combined UN and OECD Africapolis datasets. Farrell segmented Nigeria’s urbanisation curve and discovered that Nigeria is currently at an accelerated stage of urbanisation. This finding refutes the contrary claims made by Potts (2012a). Further findings by Farrell are consistent with the elucidations from the work of Bloch and colleagues. After disaggregating the scale of the influence of various components of urbanisation, Farrell discovered that natural increase was responsible for around 50% of the growth in urban population between 1960 and 2010. According to Farrell, natural increase represents the “dominant component underpinning Nigeria’s urban transformation in the post-colonial period” (Farrell 2018, p. 291). The next dominant feature is rural-urban migration which accounts for 32% of the increment in urban population. In third place is the reclassification of rural settlements accounting for 18% of the process. These findings offer the most reliable degree of empirical objectivity and generalisability within the ambit of contemporary debates surrounding the underlying causes of Nigeria’s rapid urbanisation.

2.5 Cities as Forces of Transformation At least three important forces of development have shaped the transformation of modern societies since the eighteenth century. These forces include industrialisation, urbanisation and globalisation (Hove et  al. 2013; Chen et al. 2014). Industrialisation is a primary stimulant for economic growth. It yields those outputs that drive dynamic social mobility and give impetus to urbanisation processes in developed and developing societies (Osterhammel and Camiller 2014). Industrialisation breeds

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urbanisation which, in turn, lubricates globalisation. Industrialisation, urbanisation and globalisation are interconnected and interdependent, and in a sense, urbanisation sits as the conduit between the other two forces. Towards the end of the last decade, the world became predominantly urban (Tacoli et al. 2015). Global economic productivity is also highly skewed in favour of cities. For instance, by 2025, 60% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ($64 trillion) will be generated in cities; average per capita income within these cities is expected to rise to $32,000; and households expect their income to jump above $20,000 per annum (Dobbs et al. 2011). From financial remittances to the socio-cultural transmittals of social mobility, urbanisation brings widely documented possibilities for developing countries including Nigeria (Beall and Fox 2009; Dobbs et  al. 2011; Grant 2012; Bloch et al. 2015a). During a 2011 interview with the European Magazine, Harvard University’s Edward Glaeser recounted that “if you compare countries that are more than 50 percent urbanised with countries that are less than 50 percent urbanised, incomes are five times higher in the more urbanised countries and infant mortality rates are less than a third in the more urbanised countries” (Mensel 2011, p.  1). Although some aspects of Glaeser’s claim may not necessarily be true for Nigeria, which is now over 50% urbanised, there is evidence that Nigeria’s infant mortality rate has recently fallen (Kotsadam et al. 2018). For Nigeria, cities represent the last stand for uniformity, a sort of enclave where people struggle so as not to succumb (Odufuwa et  al. 2009); a benign place where there is still a guarantee of difference and where tradition is cultivated (Myers 2011). Cities in Nigeria are perceived as havens where the idea of community is transferred (Meagher 2010), with all the difficulties that this entails, and where all these diversities are allowed to coexist and concentrate into relatively limited spaces, with mutual respect. It is a well-established argument that sustained economic development cannot occur without urbanisation (Beall and Fox 2009). Many colonial Nigerian cities have emerged as the economic platforms for industrialisation, manufacturing and production. Although Nigeria’s manufacturing sector was the second smallest contributor to growth of GDP between

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1990 and 2010, recent evidence suggests that urban manufacturing, in particular, has emerged as the single largest contributor to economic growth in 2013 (Bloch et al. 2015b). In 2013, urban manufacturing contributed 22% GDP growth. According to Bloch et al. (2015b), the major explosion in urban manufacturing is traceable to the food and beverages sub-sector. Nigerian urban centres tried to seize the competitive advantages of population density, expanding networks and access to the coast to position themselves as hubs for innovation and trade in West Africa (Cour 2001). These cities attract also major Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) which help to coordinate the distribution of new knowledge resources for accelerating innovation and adaptation of solutions that feed into local and continental trading opportunities. Figure  2.7 illustrates the relationship between the urban system across Western Africa and innovation. The 2009/2010 Global Innovation Index was published by INSEAD, a graduate business school with campuses in Europe

Fig. 2.7  Urban system of Western Africa (2010) and innovation (2009/2010). Source: Authors’ elaborations based on e-Geopolis—SWAC/OECD, 2015 data and INSEAD (2010). Global Innovation Index. Note: Settlements shown in these maps have a minimum population of 20,000 residents based on Nigeria’s official definition of urban centres

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(France), Asia (Singapore) and the Middle East (Abu Dhabi). What is perhaps interesting about Fig.  2.7 is that although the density of the national urban systems of Nigeria, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire suggest a positive association with relatively higher innovation, Mauritania appears to buck that trend. Major urban agglomerations in Nigeria also offer genuine opportunities for both formal and informal employment. This helps to generate a sizeable chunk of new private sector jobs. Bloch et al. (2015b) observed that although a limited number of case studies suggest that urban informal economies are often an extension of formal systems, there is insufficient evidence about formal-informal linkages across Nigerian urban systems. The study undertaken by Meagher (2010) sheds some more light on the configuration of urban informal economies. Meagher explained that the post-colonial expansion of Nigeria’s urban system has helped to create powerful informal trade and finance network in northern Nigeria. In the main, urbanisation has contributed towards slightly improved livelihoods for some Nigerians, especially those who were forced out to urban centres from very poor rural settings. This has happened through increased productivity, employment opportunities, improved quality of life and some investment in infrastructure and services (Solarin 2017). The comparatively higher productivity of Nigerian urban centres stems from the principle of agglomeration economies. These are the benefits that accrue to business enterprises as a result of their proximate location to customers and suppliers, thereby reducing communication and transportation costs. In a sense, the positive effects of urbanisation in Nigeria are not very well documented and probably not immediately evident because urban population growth has occurred outside effective structural transformation (Bloch et al. 2015b). However, the recently concluded Department for International Development (DFID)-sponsored Urbanisation Research Nigeria (URN) programme has yielded new evidence about the transformative social and economic effect that urbanisation is having in Nigeria. There are at least three major urban enclaves where economic activities are concentrated, according to Bloch and Papachristodoulou (2017). The first zone is in the south-west with its epicentre in Lagos and extending

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to other surrounding Ibadan cities and the corridor. This urban economic zone is specialised in Information and Communications Technologies (ICT), Professional & Scientific Services, Financial Services and Manufacturing (Bloch and Papachristodoulou 2017). There is a second zone described as an industrial corridor. This zone extends from Abuja to Kano in the northern part of the country and also subsumes cities such as Kaduna and Jos. Kano is a historical manufacturing hub. The final urban economic zone is also a manufacturing hub encompassing cities in the south-east and south geopolitical zones. This economic hub comprises cities such as Port Harcourt, Onitsha and Aba. For all these gains of urbanisation, it becomes imperative to put urban planning, management and the equitable distribution of the benefits accruing from urbanisation at the centre of national and regional policy and politics in Nigeria.

2.6 A  Diagnosis of Challenges Confronting Nigerian Cities and Urban Dwellers We have illustrated in Sect. 2.5 that urbanisation has generated some transformational outcomes for Nigerian urban dwellers with some knock­on effects on the rural economy. However, the process of urbanisation generates huge bumps in the road for Nigeria because the country appears to be underprepared for handling the accompanying challenges, and for maximising its consequential beneficial effects (Bloch and Papachristodoulou 2017). We iterate some of the challenges that rapid urbanisation presents for Nigeria. Historically, urbanisation in Nigeria was triggered largely by the development of natural resource exports rather than by improvements in manufacturing productivity. As a consequence, the growth of Nigerian cities seems to be purely ingrained in a culture of short-term economic benefits (Solarin 2017). This culture is further supplanted within a philosophy of consumption and production practices that undermine an environmental sustainability ethos (Daramola and Ibem 2010). The dramatic shift towards unbridled urban consumption and production being experi-

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enced in Nigeria does not only have profound implications for energy consumption but also for food security and sustainability. Nigeria’s urbanisation contributes towards the depletion of the country’s natural resources and intensifies environmental pollution (UN-Habitat 2011). In 2017, Nigeria exported 3.9% of total global crude oil exports amounting to $33  billion (CIA 2017). Data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Centre in Tennessee, United States indicates that Nigeria is the second highest CO2 emitter in Africa, behind South Africa. Urbanisation is aggravating the destruction of important carbon sinks across Nigeria and increasing deforestation (UN-Habitat 2011). Due to the large-scale concentration of poor populations and their landed assets in low-lying coastal areas of Nigerian cities, these settlements are particularly vulnerable to climate change effects. Lagos is a typical example of a city where millions of urban dwellers and their assets are exposed to the dangers of acute sea level rises and storm surges (Adelekan 2010). As a result of the absence of effective land use planning and management systems, peripheral areas of informal settlements are also increasingly becoming prone to localised flooding (Adelekan 2011). Metropolitan centres and large cities across Nigeria continue to experience overcrowding, densification, housing shortages, high land values, proliferation of slums, housing shortages, the lack of adequate provision for open spaces and parks and uncontrolled expansion to the surrounding countryside due to lack of adequate planning (Adelekan 2016). Housing shortages also contribute indirectly to exposing the urban poor to risk and vulnerability. Their inability to access affordable housing forces them to build homes in zones that are vulnerable to natural disasters and crime. This presents heightened economic and social risk. Epileptic power supply in Nigeria forces urban dwellers and businesses to rely heavily on the use of electric power generators (Ojo et al. 2018). Perpetual dependence on these power-generating sets exerts significant economic drains on urban dwellers because of the added expenditure that families commit towards fuelling and maintaining the generators. Similarly, enterprises and business operators augment the pricing of their goods and services by adding the cost of power generation. Altogether, these subtle increases impact negatively on the economic sustainability of

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average urban dwellers in Nigeria. Furthermore, the emissions resulting from these generators have been shown to exert negative impact on human health and well-being (Awofeso 2011). Within the ambit of the physical growth of urban agglomerations, a representative body of literature point to governance dysfunctionalities in managing a large population influx (Ogbazi 2013; Jiboye 2011). These scholars argue that existing planning frameworks and governance structures are somewhat handicapped and unable to guide urban growth across Nigeria. The gradual percolation of ICT solutions across Nigerian cities is helping to bring about transformation in all walks of life (World Bank 2019). However, when ICT is deployed in an uneven manner, it creates a digital divide, which can rapidly exacerbate inequality. This is beginning to happen in major Nigerian urban centres as those well-connected affluent neighbourhoods and urban dwellers are systematically being segregated from under-serviced residents in low-income communities (Ojo et al. 2012). Nigeria is urbanising at a low income per capita (Farrell 2018), thereby reducing the extent to which durable structures in housing and physical infrastructure can be financed. Urban population growth is taking place without the requisite level of investment in physical structures and a recent World Bank report further identified deficits in human capital (World Bank 2018). An equally significant urban challenge is the problem of insecurity and increasing risk. Urban population growth, densification as well as the effects of urban poverty and inequality have enhanced the complexities and manifestation of crime and violence within Nigerian cities. The challenge of urban crime is the central theme of this book, and Sect. 2.7 presents an initial overview of Nigeria’s urban crime challenge.

2.7 Urbanisation and the Crime Challenge Crime is disproportionately recognised as an urban problem (Onibokun and Faniran 1995; Glaeser 2011). The landmark World Development report published by the World Bank in 2011 acknowledges that crime

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and insecurity obstruct urban development (World Bank 2011) affecting more than 1.5 billion people. Urban crime constitutes a serious impediment to social and economic development in Nigeria (Marenin and Reisig 1995; Salm and Falola 2009). In numerous urban centres, high rates of crime threaten human welfare, undermine the growth of small-, medium- and large-scale enterprises and impede social development (Suberu 2001; Nyam and Ayuba 2016). Many urban LGAs are in dire need of new methods for enhancing the design, implementation and effective management of sustainable crime prevention and reduction strategies (Adebayo 2012a; Ajayi and Longe 2015). Due to the perpetuation of terrorism and insurgency across the northern axis of Nigeria and the re-surfacing of the Niger Delta crisis in the south following the election of President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015, political attention has shifted towards these two conflicts. Urban security and community safety resources have also been channelled largely towards ameliorating the effects of organised crime to the detriment of other traditional forms of crime (Adebayo 2012b). The international response to Nigeria’s urban insecurity problems has also concentrated largely on transnational crimes perpetrated by local and international groups of highly centralised enterprises run by criminals who intend to engage in illegal activity, mostly for money and profit (Ellis 2016). As a result of the shift in local and international policy focus, very few empirical research studies on the scale dynamics of conventional forms of urban crime have been conducted in Nigeria over the last decade. We use the term ‘conventional crimes’ to refer to those traditional, illegal behaviours that most people think of as crime. These include murder, rape, assault, robbery, burglary and theft. To the best of our knowledge, we are unaware of any recent national study that has used a rigorous mixed-­ methodological comparative framework to provide an evidence base of the scale and dimensions of conventional crime in Nigeria’s major urban centres over the last decade. This paucity has created some serious knowledge gaps about the spatial and temporal configuration of urban crime; the contemporary centrifugal and centripetal forces that stimulate urban crime; the scale of social, political and economic damage that urban communities suffer as a result of crime; the new and emerging coping strate-

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gies that urban communities use to combat crime; the effectiveness of some of these strategies; and the possible future prospects of urban communities with respect to crime. Nigeria is a vibrant multi-ethnic and multi-religious nation, and urban centres typically serve as the melting pot for this dynamism. Urban centres often serve as the epicentres for socio-political activities and, as a result, can often be blighted by the twin evil of crime and violence (Idemudia 2005). Additionally, Nigerian urban centres are notoriously characterised by challenges of poverty, unemployment and inequitable distribution of wealth amongst their resident diverse populations (Onibokun and Faniran 1995). This naturally results in anger, agitation and violent crimes against urban residents and the Nigerian state by some individuals and groups. Nigeria has one of the highest crime rates in SSA (Pérouse de Montclos 2016). Violent crimes within urban centres are common place in large cities, and murder often accompanies minor burglaries. Wealthy urban residents live in gated privately secured compounds because they can afford it (Idemudia 2005). The Library of Congress Country Studies and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) World Factbook (1991) reported that in the 1980s, serious crime grew to nearly epidemic proportions, particularly in Lagos and other cities, characterised by rapid population growth, socio-cultural change and contrasting economic inequality, deprivation and crippling public services (CIA 1991). More recently, Ikoh and Okenyodo (2014) examined the temporal patterns of criminal victimisation in Nigeria. According to results from their study, levels of victimisation across Nigeria declined marginally in 2010 and increased sharply between 2011 and 2012. Middle-aged persons appeared to suffer high levels of victimisation. Evidence from the analysis of Nigeria’s demographic distributions indicate that urban centres harbour more middle-aged persons than rural settings (Ajaegbu 2012). No discernible patterns were observed for gender victimisation. This is perhaps due to the limited sophistication of the analysis which was simply based on counts and percentages. More sophisticated pattern recognition techniques may have yielded discernible patterns. Ikoh and Okenyodo (2014) seem to suggest that victimisation levels were higher in rural settings. However, numerous other authors contend

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with this position. The contending authors suggest that crime rates, particularly violent crimes, are more prevalent within neighbourhoods of relatively better-off socio-economic status and that such neighbourhoods are prominent within urban centres (Shopeju 2007). Nigeria is experiencing a youth bulge and strong evidence shows that when age characteristics are profiled, rural-urban internal migration is prevalent amongst people aged 20–34 years (Mberu 2005; Oyeniyi 2013). Due to pervasive levels of urban unemployment, young urban migrants become easy prey for organised criminal gangs (Ellis 2016). Evidence shows a substantial rise in the share of young people pulled into urban criminality due to economic pressures and an at-all-cost urban survival mentality (Pérouse de Montclos 2016). Nigerian urban centres experience crime in different ways. Usman et al. (2012) used Principal Components Analysis to interrogate crime data obtained from the Criminal Investigation Department, Sokoto State Police Headquarters. They discovered that crimes such as assault committed against persons were heavily prevalent whilst burglary was reportedly prevalent when property crime was analysed. Badiora and Afon (2013) investigated the prevalence and spatial occurrence of criminal activities within Ile-Ife, south-west Nigeria. They utilised data derived from a primary survey totalling 334 respondents. Similar to the study in Sokoto, the Ile-Ife study reported high indices of occurrence for the burglary of commercial shops. The study also revealed that residential burglary was particularly prevalent amongst middle-­ income residents. Gender-based crimes such as attempted rape were perceived to be the major challenge in post-crisis residential parts of the city. There is relative paucity in the study of traditional forms of crime within cities in the south-east and the south-south geopolitical zones. Chinwokwu (2013) studied the activities of police officers while conducting criminal investigation in Enugu. The study utilised primary data sourced from 330 respondents across Enugu. Results from the data analysis suggest that factors such as lack of training, skills, facilities, corruption, disobedience to due process and unethical standards account for the high rate of undetected and pending cases of criminal investigations in Enugu. Additional findings from the study suggest that the investigative strategies and techniques adopted in policing the city are ineffective.

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A number of other small-scale, isolated studies have focused on specific spatial aspects of crime in select cities across the nation (Aguda 1994; Agbola 1997, 2002; Afon 2001; Adedibu and Abodunrin 2005; Oredein 2006; Ahmed 2012; Adigun 2013). There are also limited efforts aimed at investigating the temporal structure of crime in pockets of some cities (Omisakin 1998; Abodunrin 2004; Adeboyejo and Abodunrin 2007). The broad evidence from deep literature synthesis shows that research studies on crime within Nigerian cities are heavily skewed in favour of cities in the south-west geopolitical zone. There is dearth of knowledge on the temporal quality of crime across cities. Furthermore, to the best of our knowledge, there is no recent comprehensive study that places different cities on a rigorous empirical comparative framework. The ­subsequent chapters of this book provide compelling new evidence and discussions that address some of these knowledge gaps.

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3 The Criminal Justice System: Actors, Processes and Policies

3.1 T  he Colonial Foundations of the Nigerian Criminal Justice System Prior to the European occupation of modern African states, the diverse African societies established and practiced a traditional criminal justice system that served the interests of rulers and their subjects. The variants of the traditional criminal justice system were contextualised to suit the character and dynamics of the different societies across African communities. For instance, in pre-colonial East African communities, there were different traditional criminal justice systems such as mato oput (in Acholi Traditions), the Gachacha courts (in Rwandan society), reconciliatory justice, punitive justice (excommunication from societies) and restorative justice, among others. According to Veyne (1997), in Kenya, the most widely cited definition of restorative justice encompasses processes whereby parties with a stake in a specific criminal or civil offence collectively resolve how to deal with the outcomes of such offence and its implications in the future. Furthermore, the traditional penal practices that incorporate the underscored principles in this definition are therefore classified as restorative justice (Kinyanjui 2009). In South Africa, the © The Author(s) 2019 A. Ojo, O. Ojewale, Urbanisation and Crime in Nigeria, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19765-0_3

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most commonly cited principle of traditional criminal justice system is the spirit of Ubuntu, which was embraced in the Truth and Reconciliation Commission in South Africa (Kinyanjui 2009). The spirit of Ubuntu basically connotes solidarity and humanity to others and fosters restorative justice with the aim of sustaining community cohesiveness (Skelton 2007). The goal of justice administration in pre-colonial South African society was the restoration of victims and the reintegration of offenders back into the community. The restoration of relationships and social harmony undermined by the offence is also an important goal of the traditional criminal justice system (Elechi et al. 2010). Extant evidence by Osei-Hwedie and Rankopo (2012) suggests that the traditional criminal justice system in Ghana is a structured political, judicial and arbitration mechanism. Traditional leaders play a vital role in local and grassroots communities in relation to socio-economic development and the administration of justice in the contemporary political system. This is part of the cultural heritage of Ghanaian societies from the pre-colonial period. The institution of traditional leadership plays critical roles in promoting and sustaining social cohesion, peace and order in societies. Traditional institutions play two important roles: a proactive role to promote social cohesion, peace, harmony and coexistence, and a reactive role in resolving disputes that have already occurred (DOJ and CD 2008). Rathbone (2000) argued that colonial Ghanaian communities were subjected to a binary legal system. Findings from his study suggest that the majority of crimes and civil matters that affected Ghanaians during the colonial evolution of the country, especially those living in the countryside, were dealt with in Native Courts. These were run in accordance with what was understood to be customary law and were presided over by chiefs and their councillors. Similarly, in Nigeria, the traditional criminal justice systems have been in place for a very long time since pre-colonial southern and northern protectorates of Nigeria. They are characterised by informal systems that are not beset by the normal technicalities prevalent in formal justice systems, later introduced through the British system. Smith (1969) conducted an authoritative study on the traditional criminal justice system in northern Nigeria. The study revealed that when British administration began in 1900, there existed an effective and

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­ ell-­established system of tribunals firmly integrated into the social w structure of much of northern Nigeria. This perhaps is the most significant factor underlying the present viability of the traditional criminal justice system in the region. These tribunals were part of the general governmental structure centred on Muslim Emirs who had been installed in power as a result of the 1804–1810 Fulani holy war. Although Islam had been introduced as early as the fifteenth century, the establishment of the Fulani Empire was directed at the purification and expansion of Islam. In conformity with Islamic patterns of legal administration, new courts under qualified Muslim scholars were established, jurisdictions were defined and a basic pattern of appeals was created. Impressed by the highly developed and successful methods of government and legal administration in force in the far north as well as by the problems inherent in the imposition of a foreign legal system, the British administration gave assurances that the Mohammedan criminal justice system would not be interfered with and that the power of native courts to deal with native cases according to the local law and custom would be upheld. At the same time, however, the British were interested in rationalising and developing the native court system. Therefore, there was an impetus for basic guiding legislation. The first such legislation was the Native Courts Proclamation of 1900. It introduced the first statutory native courts in what became the administrative unit of northern Nigeria (Lugard 1965; Gower 1967). More nuanced sociological and historical explanations have been offered by scholars on the evolution and dynamism of the traditional criminal justice across the southern protectorate, particularly in the pre- and post-­ colonial communities of the Yorubas and the Igbos. From the pre-colonial era, the Igbo sense of justice has been quite condensed in Igbo oral tradition. Justice is expressed in Igbo proverbs and names. Oraegbunam (2009) offers an Afrocentric explanation of the Igbo traditional justice system. Within this postulation, the study offers three paths of arguments. Firstly, there is a group of proverbs that emphasise the Igbo sociological philosophy of live-and-let-live, harmony, peaceful coexistence and consideration for the needs of others. There is also the second group of proverbs that emphasise justice as co-responsibility within the community. This explains the social or corporate dimension of justice or injustice among the Igbo. Oraegbunam (2009) argues that the

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implication is that among the Igbo, justice includes help to the needy and obligation to help the poor, the lowly and the helpless members of the society. More importantly, some proverbs stress the idea of penal and retributive justice for those who are opposed to the community goal or attempt to trample on other people’s rights. Over the years, the traditional Igbo theory of justice has been tested in a number of areas. These include: inheritance issues, land disputes, marital/family tension, arbitration and trial by ordeal. Others areas include inter-town clashes, oath-taking and criminal matters. Surely one salient means of practicing the Igbo concept of justice is criminal causes and matters. The Igbo recognise two main classes of offences. The first group of offences is often identified as abomination (alu) which consists in acts regarded as violations against the divine laws. These range from murder, incest to theft of some highly valuable property. The second group of offences comprises the natural crimes, such as other forms of stealing, failure to join in the community projects and disobedience to other man-­ made laws. The Igbo retributive and penal justice is demonstrated in the punishments meted to the respective offenders, which include death penalty in very extreme cases, ostracism, banishment, restitution, fine, compensation, forfeiture, seizure of valuable property, among others. But above all, the Igbo criminal and penal justice systems are premised on the important value of reconciliation and peace-making, which also share some semblance with the traditional criminal justice system of the Yorubas. Before colonial occupation, there had been a traditional legal system encompassing criminal justice and arbitration in Yoruba land. Apparently, the Yoruba people had ways of settling their civil and criminal cases by means of an institution as old as the history of the Yoruba people themselves. More specifically, dispute settlement within the system of traditional institution constitutes a human device for monitoring the structure of a particular society and maintaining its status quo (North 1991). During this period, Yoruba land had three tiers of government, and there was a structured judicial system, which was not, however, strictly formal. Nevertheless, these seemingly informal courts served their purpose very well. The Yoruba people had a highly developed governance structure made up of the executive, legislature and the judiciary. The Oba (King), who

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was the supreme head of the government, was an absolute ruler in theory. His monarchical authority was not to be challenged by any of his subjects. This is because the Oba was considered the representative of the gods. However, in practice, the Oba ruled his subjects in conjunction with his council of chiefs. Furthermore, within the monarchical structure of government in the pre- and post-colonial Yoruba communities, there were two types of chiefs: the palace chiefs and the town chiefs. Each town chieftaincy member represented a quarter/ward in the town. Collectively, and in collaboration with the Oba, they make laws regarding emerging issues. Strictly speaking, there was no need to prescribe formal laws as deterrents against a social behaviour because everybody accepted implicitly that any departure from the behaviour approved by the deities and the ancestors was punishable. This became rooted and firmly entrenched in the institutional configuration as well as the belief and value system of the people. In traditional Yoruba communities, the Oba recognised the ward’s court, and the institution enjoyed the approval and support of the Oba. The head of the ward tried all civil matters within his quarter in the Yoruba patriarchal society. The head of the ward handled preliminary hearings in criminal cases without actually resolving them. Criminal cases were handled at the Oba’s court (the tradition supreme court). Under the traditional system, cases were classified into both civil and criminal matters among the Yoruba. An accused person is adjudged a criminal if such had committed a heinous offence that could not easily be settled or dismissed as inconsequential. Such cases included homicides, treason and felony, burglary, accidental or provoked manslaughter, assault and rape, while civil cases included wilful damage of property, quarrel, insult, debt and other offenses. Because the head of the ward’s court enjoyed the approval of the Oba, he had the power to sanction, fine and even ostracise the convicted criminal from the ward or even the town after receiving the approval of the Oba and his council of chiefs. The punishment given to a guilty party depended largely on the offence. Bascom (1969) established that murder, treason and burglary were normally punished by execution. Accidental or provoked manslaughter and assault were punished by a fine, for instance, and a person guilty of assault could be flogged. Rape, seduction and adultery were

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punishable by a fine. The main objective of adjudication among the Yoruba and some Nigerian ethnic groups was to reach a decision that would be accepted as fair by both parties, so that the dispute could be resolved. But if an acceptable adjudication could not be reached at the ward’s court, either party could appeal to the Oba’s court, the apex of the administrative and judicial system. During the colonial phase of Nigeria’s evolution, the criminal justice system had advanced to the extent that full-scale punitive measures were applied in the administration of criminal justice in the northern and southern protectorates. For instance, Milner (1969) observed that during the colonial era, death sentences passed by native or customary courts had to be executed in a certain way. During this period, legal punishment by hanging, beheading, stoning, drowning or burying alive inflicted by the native or customary courts were outrightly disallowed. Furthermore, prior to 1900, beheading with a sword, approved by the Maliki law of the Muslims and practiced in the northern emirates, was the only one of the punishments that persisted as an alternative to hanging. Beheading with a sword was popularly administered by the northern emirates until its abolition in 1936 (Milner 1969). Nwankwo (2010) notes that Lord Lugard, the first governor-general of Nigeria (1900–1914), specifically approved beheading and drowning as humane punishments. On this note, various forms of corporal punishments were apparently not questioned until 1933, but restrictions introduced in that year limited the weapons to rattan canes and single-tailed whips of prescribed dimensions (Milner 1969). According to Nwankwo (2010), it was only in northern Nigeria that complete criminal jurisdiction was even conferred on the native courts. However, the greater majority of serious offences in southern Nigeria fell within the exclusive jurisdiction of the British courts. The colonial criminal code was amended in 1933 with the intention of restricting the native courts’ powers to order punishments (Milner 1969). The preparation for independence in 1960 brought general agreement between the governments that customary criminal laws and penalties would be abolished. Northern Nigeria specifically invalidated them (Penal code law, 1959, s. 2(3)), and western Nigeria withdrew customary criminal jurisdiction from the customary courts (Customary courts (Amendments), Ordinances, 1951, s. 10A). Punishment procedures and

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sentencing patterns in colonial Nigeria were tacitly geared towards the maintenance needs of the colonialists (Nwankwo 2010). The vagaries of actors, beliefs and systems that characterised the multi-­ ethnic society that made up pre-colonial and colonial Nigeria posed humongous challenges to the administration of criminal justice in post-­ colonial Nigeria, particularly from the eve of transition to a sovereign nation. Therefore, the post-colonial politicians and administrators who took over leadership from the departing colonialists sought to establish a criminal justice system which reduced pluralism in practices relating to the justice system in Nigeria. In post-colonial Nigeria, the criminal justice system is envisaged and expected not only to produce social solidarity by reaffirming the society’s bond and its adherence to certain norms, but also to serve to legitimise the political authority of the state. Therefore, in the post-colonial pluralistic societies of Nigeria, the criminal justice system has been fundamentally influenced by the ascendancy of western penology—modern criminal litigation process. Criminal litigation connotes criminal proceedings in a court exercising criminal jurisdiction. Criminal litigation encompasses the whole gamut of the law and procedure, ranging from the moment when a criminal complaint is laid before a police officer or any law enforcement agent and continues through arrest, arraignment, trial, conviction and sentence of the person who is guilty of the crime. It also extends to any possible appeal emanating from such justice proceedings-related actions, such as arrest, bail, preventive justice, warrants, criminal trials, plea bargain, sentencing and restorative justice.

3.2 L egal Frameworks for Criminal Proceedings in Nigeria Ikenna (2015) describes the criminal justice as a system of practices and institutions of governments directed at upholding social control, deterring and mitigating crime, or sanctioning those who violate laws with penalties and rehabilitation efforts. Within the framework of the administration of criminal justice system in Nigeria, the first contact that a

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defendant has with the criminal justice system is usually with the police or law enforcement agents, who investigate the suspected wrongdoing and make an arrest. The police serve as the gateway into the administration of criminal justice. The Nigerian Police Force is given jurisdiction to act towards the process of arrest and investigation bestowed on them by virtue of the Police Act. In Nigeria, there are about 26 laws that are often applied to justice proceedings-related actions such as arrest, bail, preventive justice, warrants, criminal trials, plea bargain, sentencing and restorative justice (Legal Emperors 2016). These are described in the sections that follow.

3.2.1 C  onstitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 The Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria has various provisions on criminal procedure. This ranges from the provisions on rights of an accused person to jurisdiction of criminal courts as well as appeal in criminal cases. Some provisions of the constitution crucial to criminal proceedings are: supremacy Clause—section 1(1) and (3); Right to Fair Hearing—section 36; Nolle Prosequi—sections 174(1) and 211(1); Prerogative of Mercy—sections 175(1) & 212(1) and Jurisdiction of Criminal Courts—Chapter VII. The provisions of the Constitution are supplemented by the various court laws. These include: Supreme Court Act; Court of Appeal Act; High Court Laws and Magistrate Court Laws. Others are Area Court Laws; Customary Court Laws and Sharia Court Laws.

3.2.2 C  riminal Procedure Act (CPA) and Criminal Procedure Laws of the Various States of the Federation The Criminal Procedure Act (CPA) was enacted in 1945 as Cap 43, Laws of the Federation of Nigeria, 1958 and later re-enacted as Cap 80, Laws of the Federation of Nigeria, 1990. However, it is now Cap 41, Laws of the Federation of Nigeria 2004. Originally, the CPA was generally applied

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throughout the states and regions of the Federation. However, from 1963, its application was restricted to the High Courts and Magistrates’ Courts in states making up the then southern region. The states are Abia, Akwa Ibom, Ebonyi, Delta, Edo, Ekiti, Ondo, Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Enugu, Rivers, Imo, Cross Rivers, Anambra and Bayelsa. However, Lagos State was exempted, given the application of the Administration of Criminal Justice Law enacted by the state’s House of Assembly and signed into a law by the former Executive Governor of the state, Babatunde Raji Fashola, in 2011. The 16 states earlier mentioned above have re-enacted the provisions of the CPA as Criminal Procedure Laws of the different states. Additionally, by virtue of section 33 of the Federal High Court Act, Cap 134, Laws of the Federation of Nigeria 1990, the CPA also applies to the proceedings of the Federal High Court. Also, the CPA is applicable to the proceedings of a Military Court Marshal, particularly in light of the anti-terrorism operation being carried out in the north-­ eastern part of Nigeria.

3.2.3 C  riminal Procedure Code (CPC) and Criminal Procedure Code Laws of the Various States The CPC was enacted by the Northern Regional Government in 1963 as Cap 30, Laws of Northern Nigeria, 1963 to govern criminal proceedings in the northern parts of the country. The region comprises the following states: Adamawa, Bauchi, Benue, Bornu, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kastina, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, Niger, Plateau, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara. The provisions of the CPC have been re-enacted by the affected states as Criminal Procedure Code Laws of the various states.

3.2.4 C  riminal Procedure Code Act Cap 491, Laws of the Federation of Nigeria 1990 This is the law that governs criminal proceedings in the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. It is called an Act because it is the National Assembly that made it. Indeed, it is the National Assembly that legislates over the

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Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. This is by virtue of the Federal Capital Territory (Applicable Laws) Decree No 12, 1984.

3.2.5 C  riminal Code Act Cap C 38 Laws of the Federation 2004 and Criminal Code Laws of the Southern States This is the principal enactment on substantive law of crime in southern Nigeria. The Criminal Code Act Cap C 38 Laws of the Federation 2004 and Criminal Code Laws of the Southern States law are applicable primarily and exclusively to southern Nigeria. These laws set out what constitutes a particular offence, what to prove, when it must be proven and the constitutional procedure such must follow, and the number of witnesses in some cases as well as the court’s jurisprudent competence to try a particular offence or hear a matter. They also set the punishment that goes with each offence as well as mitigating factors, such as where the convict is a first-time offender.

3.2.6 E  conomic and Financial Crimes Commission (Establishment) Act, 2004 This Act provides for the establishment of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) charged with the responsibility for the enforcement of all economic and financial crimes laws, among other things. By section 19 thereof, the Federal High Court or High Court of a state or the Federal Capital Territory has jurisdiction to try offenders under this Act. Furthermore, there is also an Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Act 2000. This Act prohibits corrupt practices and other related offences and prescribes punishment for same. In Nigeria, there are other anti-corruption laws, such as Advance Fee Fraud and other Fraud Related Offences Act Cap A6 2006, and Dishonoured Cheque Offence Act Vol.5, Cap D11, Laws of the Federation of Nigeria, 2004. The Cap A6 2006 Act prohibits and ­punishes

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certain offences pertaining to Advance Fee Fraud and other fraud-­related offences and to repeal other Acts related therewith.

3.2.7 R  ecovery of Public Property (Special Provisions) Act This is an Act that makes provisions for the investigation of the assets of any public officer who is alleged to have been engaged in corrupt practices and unjust enrichment. The Act also allows for the investigation of public servants who are alleged to have abused their office or have in any way breached the Code of Conduct for Public Officers contained in the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

3.2.8 P  olice Act Cap P19 Laws of the Federation of Nigeria 2004 This Act makes provision for the organisation, discipline, powers and duties of the police, the special constabulary and traffic wardens. Nigeria also operates the Firearms Act Cap F28 Laws of the Federation of Nigeria 2004. This is an Act to make provision for regulating the possession of and dealing in firearms and ammunition, including muzzle-loading firearms, and for matters ancillary thereto. Closely related to the Firearms Act is the Robbery and Firearms (Special Provisions) Act Cap. R11 Laws of the Federation of Nigeria 2004. This Act makes comprehensive provisions for matters relating to armed robbery.

3.2.9 P  ublic Order Act (Cap P42) Laws of the Federation of Nigeria, 2004 This is an Act that repeals all public order laws across the States of the Federation and replaces them with a Federal Act for the purpose of maintaining public order and to prohibit the formation of quasi-military organisations. The Act also regulates the use of uniforms and other matters ancillary thereto.

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3.2.10 T  errorism (Prevention) Act No. 10, 2011 and Terrorism (Prevention) (Amendment) Act, 2013 This is an Act that provides legal mechanisms for all offences relating to conduct carried out or purposes connected with terrorism. Section 32 of the Terrorism (Prevention) Act No. 10 2011 empowers that the Federal High Court has the sole jurisdiction to try an offence and impose the penalties specified in the Act.

3.2.11 M  oney Laundering (Prohibition) Act 2011 and Money Laundering (Prohibition) (Amendment) Act 2012 The Money Laundering (Prohibition) Act 2011 makes adequate provisions to prohibit the financing of terrorism, the laundering of the proceeds of a crime or an illegal act. The Act further provides appropriate penalties and expands the scope of supervisory and regulatory authorities so as to address the challenges faced in the implementation of the anti-­ money laundering regime in Nigeria.

3.2.12 Cybercrimes (Prohibition and Prevention) Act The Act provides an effective, unified and comprehensive legal, regulatory and institutional framework for the prohibition, prevention, detection, prosecution and punishment of cybercrimes in Nigeria. This Act also ensures the protection of critical national information infrastructure, and promotes cyber security and the protection of computer systems and networks, electronic communications, data and computer programmes, intellectual property and privacy rights.

3.2.13 Other Ancillary Frameworks These include the Penal Code Act of the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, which equally applies mutatis mutandis to the Federal Capital Territory,

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Abuja. There is also the Evidence Act 2011 which contains rules of evidence that apply in criminal proceedings before courts in Nigeria. Another legal framework is the Code of Conduct Bureau and Tribunal Act Cap C 23 Laws of the Federation of Nigeria 2004. This law provides for the establishment of the Code of Conduct Bureau and Tribunal to deal with complaints of corruption by public servants for the breaches of its provisions.

3.2.14 Administration of Criminal Justice Act 2015 In Nigeria, prior to 2015, the two basic legislations (apart from others mentioned above) dealing with criminal procedure were the Criminal Procedure Code and the Criminal Procedure Act, passed down to the country by the British colonial administration. These legislations are now outdated. Waziri-Azi (2017) contends that the administration of criminal justice in Nigeria was and is still a major concern for citizens and other stakeholders as it relates to effective justice delivery system, notably speedy dispensation of high-profile corruption cases, in particular. Nigeria has a history of slow dispensation of justice. Trials could remain in court for as long as ten years without making any progress with all sides exploiting the loopholes in the laws. This problem is further compounded by incessant adjournments, interlocutory applications and parties not showing up at trials. Other key concerns range from poor case management, delays in the adjudicatory process, corruption, flagrant disrespect for human rights, lack of gender mainstreaming, ‘holding charge’ syndrome, little or no engagement with victims of crime, weak coordination and lack of inter-agency cooperation amongst criminal justice institutions (Waziri-Azi 2017). To address all these lapses and to make criminal justice delivery more progressive, the Administration of Criminal Justice Act (ACJA) was passed in 2015 to significantly alter the criminal justice process with a view to raising efficiency and effectiveness in the quality of justice delivery in Nigeria. The Act is a paradigm shift from the punitive approach to a restorative one taking into cognizance the needs of the society, victims and vulnerable persons (Waziri-Azi 2017). The ACJA 2015 merged the provisions of the two principal legislations, CPA and CPC, into one principal Federal Act which is intended to

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apply uniformly in all federal courts across the entire Federation. Substantially, the ACJA 2015 builds upon the existing framework of criminal justice administration in the country. Despite some challenges and contradictions identified with the implementation of the ACJA in Nigeria, Akinseye (2015) and Waziri-Azi (2017) suggest that the ACJA introduces new innovative provisions that will enhance the efficiency and management of the justice system. A selection of some of these innovative provisions are briefly summarised in Table 3.1. Additional innovation introduced by the ACJA 2015 include mandatory monthly report by the police to supervising magistrates; magistrates monthly inspection; quarterly report of arrests to the Attorney-General of the Federation; abolition of lay prosecutors; ending obnoxious remand; introduction of plea bargaining; day-to-day trial of criminal cases and adjournments; stay of proceedings; non-custodial sentencing; electronic recording of confessional statements and the establishment of the ACJA monitoring committee. Despite the innovative provisions of the ACJA, it is important to emphasise that the ACJA 2015 does not automatically apply to states of the Federation. Rather, it must be adopted or enacted as a state legislation through the legislative process of a State House of Assembly and finally assent by the State Governor. Hence, justice sector stakeholders are using advocacy mechanisms to promote state-level domestication, enactment and implementation of the ACJA with a view to ensuring uniformity in the administration of criminal justice legislation access. The advocacy effort of different stakeholders has yielded much fruit as 19 out of the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory have already adopted the ACJA, as shown in Table 3.2. Stakeholders within the other states are making conscious legislative and advocacy efforts to enact the law for implementation.

3.3 Systemic Indices of Failure A range of factors combine to worsen the state of urban security in Nigeria. Many of these factors are embellished within formal institutions and they cut across national and sub-national levels of governance in

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Table 3.1  Selected innovative provisions of the Administration of Criminal Justice Act (ACJA) 2015 Innovative provision

Brief description

Unlawful arrests

The ACJA jettisoned the section 10(1) of the CPA where the police could indiscriminately arrest without a warrant. Section 7 of the ACJA exclusively prohibits the indiscriminate arrests of relations or close associates of a crime suspect with a view to compelling suspects to yield themselves to the police. The ACJA reinforces sections 5 of the CPA and 38 of the CPC, which provided that a police officer or a person carrying out an arrest is to inform the arrested person of the reason for the arrest. The ACJA emphasises the constitutional provision of the right to dignity of person. Section 8 (2) of the ACJA provides that a suspect shall not be arrested merely on a civil wrong. In the past, police were used for recovery of debt, which is a civil matter. Section 10 of the ACJA requires a police officer effecting a lawful arrest to take an inventory of all items or properties recovered from the suspect. Section 15 of the ACJA emphasises the mandatory record of personal data of an arrested person. Section 16 of the ACJA provides for the establishment, within the Nigeria Police, of a CCRR that will ensure that all arrests and judgements are well documented.

Arrest in lieu

Notification of cause of arrest

Humane treatment of an arrested person Prohibition of arrest in civil cases

Mandatory inventory of property Recording of arrest

Establishment of a Police Central Criminal Records Registry (CCRR) Recording of Section 17 of the ACJA provides that an arrested statement of suspect person shall have their statements taken in the presence of a legal practitioner or in the presence of an officer of the Legal Aid Council. Women sureties Prior to the adoption of ACJA in Nigeria, women could not stand as sureties for alleged offenders undergoing trial. Section 167 (3) of the ACJA establishes that no person shall be denied or restricted from entering into any recognizance as surety. Time frame for The ACJA introduces a time frame for remand orders. remand orders Under section 296, an order of remand made by a court shall not exceed a period of 14 days in the first instance.

(continued)

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Table 3.1 (continued) Innovative provision

Brief description

Witness protection for Section 232 of the ACJA provides witnesses to certain offences to give evidence in camera. vulnerable persons during trial Compensation to In Nigeria, victims of crimes are often neglected victims of crime without any form of compensation even when the offender has been found guilty and sentenced. The ACJA broadens the powers of the court to award costs, compensation and damages in deserving cases. Source: Authors’ elaborations based on Akinseye (2015) and Waziri-Azi (2017)

Nigeria. In contemporary times, the rate at which crimes are being perpetrated in Nigeria is unparalleled. Nigeria’s security capability is not just undermined by its feeble security architecture, but also by a range of practices within the broad spectrum of the nation’s justice sector. This section examines a selection of factors that weaken the administration of criminal justice in urban Nigeria.

3.3.1 Failure of Governance There is a common perception among Nigerians that the increasing incidence of kidnapping, vandalism, armed robbery and other criminal acts are precipitated by a failure of governance. This failure is characterised by poor political leadership across government at all levels. The palpable dissatisfaction with the various dimensions of governance performance at all levels, such as lack of transparency and accountability on the part of elected officials, coupled with endemic corruption establishes and exacerbates poverty and socio-economic inequality which serves as a precursor driving some citizens into crime (David et al. 2015). This is often premised on the notion that vulnerable people are susceptible to criminal gangs’ recruitment. This is intersection of poor governance and insecurity is evident across numerous cities in Nigeria.

3  The Criminal Justice System: Actors, Processes and Policies  Table 3.2  Passage of the Administration of Criminal Justice Act (ACJA) Geopolitical Zone

North Central

North East

North West

South East

South

South West

Source: Authors’ compilation

State Abuja FCT Benue Kogi Kwara Nasarawa Niger Plateau Adamawa Bauchi Borno Gombe Taraba Yobe Jigawa Kaduna Kano Katsina Kebbi Sokoto Zamfara Abia Anambra Ebonyi Enugu Imo Akwa Ibom Bayelsa Cross River Rivers Delta Edo Ekiti Lagos Ogun Ondo Osun Oyo

ACJA Status Adopted Not adopted Adopted Adopted Not adopted Not adopted Adopted Adopted Not adopted Not adopted Not adopted Not adopted Not adopted Not adopted Adopted Not adopted Not adopted Not adopted Not adopted Not adopted Not adopted Adopted Not adopted Adopted Not adopted Adopted Adopted Adopted Adopted Adopted Adopted Adopted Adopted Adopted Adopted Adopted Adopted

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3.3.2 L ack of Public Confidence in the Police and Justice System Another major security challenge is the lack of public trust in the police and criminal justice system. This is identified as a grave security threat which jeopardises mechanisms put in place by the government to combat crime in the cities. Most Nigerians express concern about their non-­ readiness to volunteer information about their security concerns to the police for fear of compromise by the police. In a recent study focused on the public perception of the police, 98% of citizens identified corruption in the police as a major threat confronting public trust. The humongous rate of negative perception on the basis of corruption has steadily increased from 66% in 2001 and 70% in 2003 (Monguno 2016). Findings of another independent study conducted in Lagos in 2014 indicated that 69.7% of citizens had no confidence in the police (Ayodele and Aderinto 2014). Citizen’s perception is often drawn from police performance over the years. However, perceived legitimacy of law enforcement is crucial to effective law enforcement and urban security in the cities.

3.3.3 W  eak Enforcement of the Administration of Criminal Justice Act (ACJA) Delay in justice dispensation in Nigeria remains a very disturbing and challenging aspect of the criminal justice system. In Nigeria, criminal trials are often delayed where persons standing trial are able to engage the services of legal practitioners who can exploit the weaknesses in the legal system. This leads to a frustration of the trial process. Those who benefit mostly from this deficit are mainly offenders with social and economic power as well as social influence in society. Many of these offenders can afford to employ the services of legal practitioners who drag trials to the point that conviction becomes unlikely as witnesses may no longer be available. Where the witness is available, some facts relating to cases would have been distorted while the trial is pending. The introduction of ACJA in 2015 vested prosecutorial power solely on lawyers. Previously, non-lawyers (e.g. police officers) were allowed to

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appear in court and contribute to the prosecution of criminal cases. This new approach removes synergy between the police (the agency saddled with the responsibility to effect arrest) and lawyers from the Ministry of Justice who are now vested with the prosecutorial power in court. Urban justice in Nigeria is therefore confronted with a challenging situation in which the criminal justice system has lost its capacity to conclude criminal trials within a reasonable period. Meanwhile, the population of prisoners—mostly poor people who are held without trial—keeps growing unchecked in Nigeria as a result of this particular weakness of the ACJA.

3.3.4 C  onnivance of State Security Actors with Vandals There exists overwhelming evidence that shows that security agents often connive with criminals perpetrating oil theft and pipeline vandalism in the oil-producing areas of Nigeria (Onuoha 2008). There are increasing allegations of complicity between oil marketers, traditional rulers, politicians, security agents and staff of oil companies in the growing incidence of sabotage. Such complicity has been confirmed in confessions by vandals and suspected vandals arrested by the police. For instance, in October 2006, there were interrogatory confessions that a local council chairman gave money, arms and tools to some offenders to vandalise pipelines (Abubakar 2006). Experience also shows that some security agencies have abdicated their responsibility of providing security for the pipelines.

3.3.5 Inter-Agency Rivalry Among Internal Security Institutions in Nigeria Security operatives are creation of the state to checkmate criminal tendencies in urban society. In Nigeria, the responsibility for internal security is conferred on certain security institutions established by the laws of the country. Primarily, the leading agency in this regard is the Nigeria Police. The Nigeria Police Act states inter alia that the police shall be employed for the prevention and detection of crime, the apprehension of

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offenders, the preservation of law and order, the protection of life and property and the due enforcement of all laws and regulations with which they are directly charged. The Nigeria Police is also mandated by law to perform such military duties within or outside Nigeria as may be required of them by, or under the authority of this or any other Act. The Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) is a paramilitary agency of the Government of the Federal Republic of Nigeria that is commissioned to provide measures against threat and any form of attack or disaster against the nation and its citizenry. The corps is statutorily empowered by lay Act No. 2 of 2003 and amended by Act 6 of 4 June 2007. An increasing drug menace compelled Nigeria to use decree No. 48 of 1989, now an Act of Parliament CAP N30 laws of the Federation of Nigeria 2004, to establish a new body, independent of other existing law enforcement agencies in the country. The National Drug Law Enforcement Agency (NDLEA) was established deliberately for the suppression of the drug cankerworm. Another law enforcement agency, the State Security Service (SSS), also known as the Department of State Services (DSS), is the primary domestic intelligence agency of Nigeria. It is primarily responsible for intelligence gathering within the country and for the protection of senior government officials, particularly the president and state governors. The establishment of these security and justice institutions is premised on the notion that only in the atmosphere of peace can socio-economic development be achieved in the society. However, the provision of security is a herculean task, as it requires synergy among these agencies, as well as the goodwill of the public. More critical to the provision and enjoyment of security in society is the cooperation of security agencies saddled with security provision in different domains. However, Nigerian security organs often work at cross purposes in the immediate investigations and arrest of criminal suspects. Rivalry between security agencies is not peculiar to Nigeria or developing countries (Adeniyi 2012). However, in Nigeria, officials of these critical security agencies that are constitutionally responsible for protecting the citizens regularly openly trade blames, damaging accusations and seek for ways to discredit one another. This undermines the safety and security of the general public.

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3.4 Impact of the Criminal Justice System on Security According to the Criminal Procedure Act of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, the police should not detain someone that has been arrested beyond 24 hours. The responsibility of the police is to obtain the statements of suspects free and fair without promise of favouring or intimidating any suspect through anti human right means. Having started or completed an investigation, if the police establish that an offence has taken place, the arrested suspect must be arraigned before the court of law. However, if the suspect is considered dangerous to the public, a national law enforcement agency such as the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Criminal Investigation Department (CID), State Security Services (SSS), the Nigerian Army and host of others can be invited by the police to apprehend the culprits. Apparently, the police remain at the centre of the debate on the role of the security agencies within the ambit of the administration of urban criminal justice. The entire debate also concentrates on what has not worked on the part of the police in terms of the limitation of the policing agency to operate at the optimal level in addressing issues of security concerns. The explanatory factors for this are not far-fetched. The police are agents of the state, established for the maintenance of order and enforcement of law. Therefore, like the state, the character, roles and priority of police forces are determined by the political and economic structures of their nations. Similarly, the form and activities of policing by state and non-state agencies are also dependent on the character and composition of the political economy of society. The tasks of the police are dictated by the contradictions and conflict of interests among groups and classes in society which, if not regulated, can threaten the preservation of prevailing social order. In very substantive ways, the police mirror the contradictions and conflicts as well as human cooperation in society (Alemika and Chukwuma 2006). Security agencies often complain that they lack adequate financial resources required for the implementation of the ACJA. However, it can be argued that the ACJA has revolutionised the security landscape of

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Nigeria by helping to ensure that punishment comes more swiftly. Furthermore, there is gradual and steady progress in terms of respect for human rights of citizens by security agencies (Akpan 2018). There is also a steady reduction in involuntary contact situation. The contact situation between citizens and security forces in an environment where human rights is not respected is generally involuntary because it occurs during their normal law enforcement functions. The introduction of the ACJA has helped to navigate engagement between the citizens and the agencies because measures are in place to check excesses such as arbitrary arrests and detention, which put citizens at the mercy of the state agents that violate human rights. The primary impact is the purport of the Act, instilling accountability in the operations of policing actors in Nigeria. The introduction of the ACJA for the first time gave purpose of the criminal justice process, and by extension, the purpose of policing actors within cities. This allows for speedy dispensation of justice, protection of the society from crime, protection of the rights and interests of suspects, defendants and victims. The act also is essentially a control on the powers of policing actors. However, the impact on security is not a linear argument. This is because the ACJA may be primed to have some impact on security when security operatives abide by the obligations to keep records on persons arrested and detained as well as judgements on those tried in courts. What this means is that diligent and painstaking profiling of law-breakers will act as a check in curtailing serial offenders and fast-tracking trials of criminal cases. Once judicial process is strengthened through the maintenance of reliable databases, fewer offenders will escape justice and the burden of crime rate may diminish.

References Abubakar, A. (2006). Pipeline Vandalisation Causes Fuel Shortages at Northern Depots. Weekly Trust, October 7–13. Adeniyi, O. (2012). Terrorism and Inter-Agency Coordination in Nigeria. Sahara Reporters, November 29. Retrieved February 8, 2019, from http:// saharareporters.com/2012/11/29/terrorism-and-inter-agency-coordinationnigeria-olusegun-adeniyi.

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Akinseye, G. (2015). Innovative Provisions of Administration of Criminal Justice Act 2015. The Nation, June 1. Retrieved February 3, 2019, from http://thenationonlineng.net/innovative-provisions-of-administration-ofcriminal-justice-act-2015/. Akpan, S. (2018). Assessing the Administration of Criminal Justice. Premium Times, February 9. Retrieved January 15, 2019, from https://opinion.premiumtimesng.com/2018/02/09/assessing-the-administration-of-criminal-justice-in-nigeria-by-saviour-akpan/. Alemika, E. O., & Chukwuma, I. C. (2006). The Role of Policing as a Barrier to Change or Driver of Change in Nigeria. In CLEEN Foundation (Ed.), Justice Sector Reform Analysis of Police and Policing in Nigeria (2006). Lagos: CLEEN Foundation. Ayodele, J. O., & Aderinto, A. A. (2014). Public Confidence in the Police and Crime Reporting Practices of Victims in Lagos, Nigeria: A Mixed Methods Study. International Journal of Criminal Justice Sciences (IJCJS), 9(1), 46–63. Bascom, W. R. (1969). The Yoruba of Southwestern Nigeria. New York, NY: Holt, Rinehart and Winston. David, O. J., Asuelime, L. E., & Onapajo, H. (2015). Boko Haram: The Socio-­ Economic Drivers. Heidelberg: Springer International Publishing. DOJ and CD. (2008). Policy Framework on the Traditional Justice System Under the Constitution. Pretoria: Department of Justice and Constitutional Development. Elechi, O.  O., Morris, S.  V. C., & Schauer, E.  J. (2010). Restoring Justice (Ubuntu): An African Perspective. Indigenous Criminal Justice Review, 20(1), 73–85. Gower, L. C. B. (1967). Independent Africa: The Challenge to the Legal Profession. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Ikenna, O. S. (2015). The Police and Administration of Criminal Justice System in Nigeria. Nnamdi Azikiwe University, 25 March. Department of Sociology and Anthropology. Kinyanjui, S. (2009). Restorative Justice in Traditional Pre-Colonial ‘Criminal Justice Systems’ in Kenya. Tribal Law Journal, 10, 1–16. Legal Emperors. (2016, January 1). Laws and Rules Applicable to Criminal Courts in Nigeria. Retrieved February 3, 2019, from http://legalemperors.blogspot. com/2016/01/laws-and-rules-applicable-to-criminal.html. Lugard, L. (1965). The Dual Mandate in British Tropical Africa (5th ed.). Abingdon: Routledge; Frank Cass and Co. LTD. Milner, A. (Ed.). (1969). African Penal Systems. New York. London: Praeger.

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Monguno, A. K. (2016). Security and Governance in Borno State. In H. Abdu & C.  Okoro (Eds.), Security and Governance in North-East Nigeria East Nigeria. Lagos: Malthouse Press Limited. North, D. C. (1991). Institutions. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5(1), 97–112. Nwankwo, P. O. (2010). Criminal Justice in the Pre-Colonial, Colonial, and Post-­ Colonial Eras: An Application of the Colonial Model to Changes in the Severity of Punishment in the Nigerian Law. Lanham, MD: University Press of America. Onuoha, F. C. (2008). Oil Pipeline Sabotage in Nigeria: Dimensions, Actors and Implications for National Security. African Security Review, 17(3), 99–115. Oraegbunam, I. (2009). The Principles and Practice of Justice in Traditional Igbo Jurisprudence. OGIRISI: A New Journal of African Studies, 6, 53–85. Osei-Hwedie, K., & Rankopo, M. J. (2012). Indigenous Conflict Resolution in Africa: The Case of Ghana and Botswana. In B. Z. Osei-Hwedie, T. Galvin, & H. Shinoda (Eds.), Indigenous Methods of Peacebuilding. Hiroshima: IPSHU. Rathbone, R. (2000). Native Courts, Local Courts, Chieftaincy and the CPP in Ghana in the 1950s. Journal of African Cultural Studies, 13(1), 125–139. Skelton, A. (2007). Regional Reviews. In G.  Johnstone & D.  W. van Ness (Eds.), Handbook of Restorative Justice. Devon: Willan Publishing. Smith, D.  N. (1969). Native Courts of Northern Nigeria: Techniques for Institutional Development. Boston University Law Review, 48(1), 49–82. Veyne, P. (1997). Foucault Revolutionizes History. In A.  I. Davidson (Ed.), Foucault and His Interlocutors. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Waziri-Azi, F. (2017). Compliance to the Administration of Criminal Justice Act, 2015  in Prosecuting High Profile Corruption Cases in Nigeria (2015–2017). Journal of Law and Criminal Justice, 5(2), 113–128.

4 Applicability of Traditional Environmental Criminological Theories in Developing Country Contexts

4.1 T  heories and Their Usefulness for Studying Urban Crime The dynamic abilities exhibited by crime perpetrators means that crime has an evolving nature, particularly within urban settings, where the resident population are frequently on the move. Furthermore, rapidly changing urban cultures (Stevenson 2013) also mean that those activities and behaviours that were previously not criminalised may be labelled as criminal as time passes by. This underscores why it is important to be able to generate explanations for the natural and unnatural behaviours of people who are at the heart of criminogenic activities. Crime theories represent valuable mechanisms for articulating the way the world around us works within the context of threats, harms and risks to human security. Theories help to properly unpack the nexus among key actors within the human security ecological footprint (Akers and Sellers 2016). Such actors might include criminals, victims and survivors and the criminal justice system. In some situations, crime theories can also be useful for unpacking the underlying logic of the occurrence of a criminogenic activity (Akers and © The Author(s) 2019 A. Ojo, O. Ojewale, Urbanisation and Crime in Nigeria, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19765-0_4

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Sellers 2016). This is achieved by illuminating the drivers, processes and outcomes of such criminal activities. In the process of studying urban crime dynamics, it is sometimes common for researchers within different jurisdictions to generate contradictory results. Crime theories serve as useful frameworks for reconciling such contradictory outcomes by discovering, synthesising and synergising contingent concepts and factors subsumed within such opposing studies. Due to its complex nature, there is rarely a singular cause of urban crime. Theories often serve as the bedrock for exploring and linking together the many different facets of where, how and why crime occurs. Urban crime theories can, therefore, function as bridges for transitioning from a world of knowns to a world of unknowns. When studying urban crime, some researchers and policymakers can often be tempted to predicate their analysis merely on the basic level of practical knowledge and judgement that is required to help them with their decision-making. This type of thinking is generally described as expert judgement or common sense. The problem is that such analysis exposes the researcher to the dangers of self-contradiction. Theories, on the other hand, are much more consistent; therefore, they allow urban crime researchers and policymakers to gravitate towards much more robust and defensible outcomes. Most of the existing urban crime theories were developed on the back of systematic data collection and pattern recognition analysis (Wortley 2010). For those theories that were not developed primarily from the collection of environmental facts, we find that over time, their refinement has been based on carefully analysed facts. In essence, urban crime theories are not ignorant of facts or reality; consequently, a hypothesis grounded upon a well-established theory has a greater chance of being exact. This is a powerful advantage of crime theories. Another important reason why urban security researchers should embrace the use of theories is because theoretical frameworks help to provide focus for research. Urban criminological theories help to guide research agenda and, more importantly, to structure ideas in line with the goals and objectives of a study. More often than not, unorganised facts

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about the urban environment and criminal activity have no sensible meaning unless they are drawn together within the framework of a theory. Some urban criminological theories are fairly broad in scope, which makes them applicable to a wide range of situations as well as contexts. This is because they have the capability of explaining a range of ideas and hypothesis with a few principles. For instance, the rational choice theory of Clarke (1983), which suggests that offenders operate within the boundaries of a risk-reward calculus, has been used to examine gun crime, drink-driving, political violence and kidnapping (Clarke and Felson 1993), terrorism (Ojo and Ezepue 2017) and punishment deterrents (Okoye et al. 2016). Crime theories also help to stimulate a snowballing effect on knowledge building about urban enclaves (Brantingham and Brantingham 2008). This is achieved when certain theories are used to bridge knowledge gaps between other theories, thereby creating the opportunity and rationale for the review of previously existing theories. In order for them to be optimally useful, urban criminological theories must aim to exhibit certain traits. These traits are illustrated in Fig. 4.1. Some of these traits are similar to the expected characteristics of theories used in a range of diverse disciplines within the social and physical sciences (Kuhn 1977; Deutsch 2011). Logical consistency refers to a scenario where the underlying building blocks of the theory make sense and fit together seamlessly. In general, criminological theories should be built upon a set of constructs, propositions, logic and assumptions (Whetten 1989). These four elements should be properly aligned. Constructs such as offender, target and guardian are used to illustrate the ‘what’ dimensions of criminological theories. Propositions such as the absence of a guardian results in crime against a target, are used to explain how constructs are associated. Logic explains why theoretical constructs are related. For example, the logic behind the reasoning of crime against a suitable target is that crime opportunities are created for offenders when guardians are absent. Finally, for this theory to hold, the underlying assumptions are that the offender is motivated, the target is suitable and the guardian is absent. The scope of a theory refers to how much of criminological factors, actors, processes and outcomes it accounts for. When undertaking urban

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Logical Consistency

Ethical Fitness

Scope

Features of Good Urban Criminological Theories

Explanatory Power

Parsimony

Falsifiability

Fig. 4.1  Characteristics of good urban criminological theories

security studies, researchers can sometimes be confronted with a variety of theory-related questions such as how much crime can, or should, the theoretical framework be able to explain? Should the theory be able to account for crime-inducing factors that are beyond the immediate objectives of the research study? Should the theory also be able to explain how a diversity of criminogenic outcomes are brought about? Should the theory spell out how urban crime interventions and responses should be undertaken? According to Akers and Sellers (2016), effective criminological theories should have broad latitude and be able to explicate as much crime as possible. While we understand that it may be desirable to embrace theories with a broad scope, we argue that the scope of a theory ultimately depends on the purpose of that theory. Perhaps a more

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­ ertinent scope-related question should be: does the theory tell us enough p to make the decisions we need to make? Theories seek to mimic reality; therefore, the explanatory power of a criminological theory is defined by the degree to which the theory is able to explicate reality. Urban crime theories are effectively systematic explanations of the underlying patterns, processes and outcomes of criminogenic activities in space and time. For example, crime opportunity theory describes criminal offending through a behavioural lens. It explains that offending is partially a function of what happens when a criminal is exposed to the opportunity to commit crimes (Felson and Clarke 1998). However, Clarke (2012) later admitted that this explanation may not always hold for all classes. Urban crime scholars approach their studies from different paradigms. In a broad sense, researchers may choose to undertake their inquiry from deductive or inductive perspectives. In inductive crime studies, the prime objective of the researcher is to infer theoretical concepts from observed data. This is effectively about theory building. Conversely, a researcher that approaches their investigation from a deductive perspective seeks to test concepts and crime patterns known from theory. Good crime theories exhibit the quality of falsifiability which ensures that the theory is potentially disprovable if evaluated using data in different contexts. Good criminological theories should, therefore, be empirically testable. Theories should not be tested just for the purpose of disproving them. Theory testing could also lead to the refinement, improvement and extension of existing theories (Clarke 2012). Explaining the criminal activities within urban environments can prove challenging due to the complexity of human behaviour and the dynamic interaction between behaviour and other components of the environment. Attempts by urban scholars trying to clarify these interactions could often lead to multiple explanations, which is why there are diverse crime theories. Furthermore, researchers can often be tempted to increase the number of concepts and assumptions subsumed within their theoretical framework when trying to explain the complex notion of crime. This can sometimes prove counterproductive and can ultimately defeat the principle of parsimony in theory building. A parsimonious theory is one that is simpler than other competing theories because it

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embraces the least number of assumptions about the subject in question. The advantage of this is that such urban crime theories are more generalisable in different contexts and populations because of the higher degrees of freedom that they enjoy. According to Beauchamp and Childress (2012), ‘ethics’ is a term that subsumes different interpretations and understandings of morality in life. Urban criminological researchers are often confronted by multifaceted ethical challenges. These ethical dilemmas can appear when the researcher needs to select a problem, design potential solutions or answers, work through implementation, publish and share data and undertake societal engagement (Cowburn et  al. 2016; Resnik and Elliott 2016). Good criminological theories should conform to the demands of research regulators. Ethically sound theories should adhere to the tenets of integrity, quality, transparency and respect for the underlying elements of equality and diversity (Cowburn et al. 2017).

4.2 O  verview of Environmental Criminology Theories Prior to discussing the key environmental criminology theories, we briefly touch on the families of criminological theories. Criminological theories are fundamentally concerned with aetiology1 whilst also touching on the dynamic characteristics of main actors within the criminal justice system. Akers and Sellers (2016) probably put together one of the most comprehensive resource covering most of the major theories of crime over the latter part of the twentieth century. For easy understanding, we group these theories in Table 4.1 and briefly provide the underlying assumptions and overarching policy responses to the different schools of thought. Based on the categorisation in Table 4.1, some environmental criminology theories fit within the deterrence and rational choice family. The foundations of environmental criminology can be traced to some of the urban sociological work of prominent scholars at the University of Chicago School Sociology (Wortley 2010). The 1930s’ study of Shaw  The study of causes or reasons for crime.

1

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Table 4.1  Families of major criminological theories Theory family

Assumptions

People choose to commit crimes Deterrence and because they think it will be more Rational Choice rewarding and less costly for them Theories than non-criminal behaviour (Becker 1968; Cohen and Felson 1979). Law-violating behaviours are Biological and determined by factors (such as Biosocial heredity, vitamin deficiency and Theories hormonal imbalance) largely beyond individual control (Lombroso 2006). Psychological Criminal behaviour is a result of Theories individual differences in thinking processes (Freud 1933). Social Learning The underlying assumption in social Theory learning theory is that the same learning process in a context of social structure, interaction and situation produces both conforming and deviant behaviour (Akers et al. 1979). Crime and delinquency result when an Social Bonding individual’s bond to society is weak or and Control broken (Gottfredson and Hirschi Theories 1990). Labelling Theory A complete picture of crime or deviance cannot be attained by merely examining offenders and their characteristics; instead, a complete picture of deviance must also reveal societal reactions to incidents of rule-breaking (Kitsuse 1962; Becker 1963; Kobrin 1976; Cohen 1995). The effects of location and location-­ Social specific characteristics of fragile Disorganisation communities such as poverty, ethnic and Ecological heterogeneity and weakened social Theory stability influences the perpetuation of crime (Park and Burgess 1928; Park et al. 1969; Shaw and McKay 1942). Strain theory Stressors such as the inability to achieve one’s goals, the loss of positive stimuli, the presentation of negative stimuli increase the likelihood of crime (Agnew 1992, 2001, 2006).

Typical responses If punishment is certain, severe and swift, people will refrain from crime Isolation and medical treatment

Stress treatment and counselling Use of positive reinforcement

Child-rearing and social bonds

Non-intervention and reintegration

Community empowerment

Minimise economic blockage and increase opportunities (continued)

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Table 4.1 (continued) Theory family

Assumptions

Typical responses

Stimulate Power differentials systematically imposed by the criminal justice system increased equality embody special interests of the most powerful people in society, rather than those of society as a whole (Chambliss and Seidman 1982). Praxis and Critical and Points to the underlying assumption Radical Theories that crime is defined by class struggle, socialism capitalism and a small number of people (the ruling class) who indirectly or directly proscribe the crimes (Bernard 1981). End gender Feminist Theories Examines the function of patriarchy discrimination and gender inequality in society and seeks to explain why men commit more crime than women, and the adequacy of theories developed by males for explaining female deviance (Alder 1985, 2000).

Conflict Theory

Source: Authors’ elaborations based on Akers, R.L. and Sellers, C.S. (2016). Criminological Theories: Introduction, Evaluation, and Application. 7th Ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press

and McKay on social disorganisation triggered a dramatic shift from a purely offender-focused approach to investigating the underlying currents of crime, to a more encompassing approach that incorporates the composition and configuration of the built environment. Environmental criminology focuses on criminal patterns within human-made surroundings that provide the setting for human activity such as habitual residence, work environment and leisure milieu. Crime configurations are often related to the components of these environments in order to unpick the influence of external variables on the space-time behaviours of offenders, targets and victims within the ambit of the law. In the remainder of this section, we discuss six prominent environmental criminological theories. These theories and concepts include Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design, Crime Opportunity Theory, Routine Activity Theory, Crime Pattern Theory, Broken Windows Theory and Rational Choice Theory.

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4.2.1 C  rime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED) In order to properly comprehend the concept of CPTED, it is imperative to briefly discuss crime prevention. The prevention of crime has become central to public safety strategies of major urban centres across the globe. There is broad agreement in literature that prevention can prove more beneficial because it reduces the effects of harm on victims, saves financial costs, drives down the fear of crime and improves public confidence in law enforcement officers (Greenwood et al. 1998; Schneider and Kitchen 2002; Cozens et al. 2005). Crime prevention is defined as “strategies and measures that seek to reduce the risk of crimes occurring, and their potential harmful effects on individuals and society, including fear of crime, by intervening to influence their multiple causes” (UNODC 2010, p.  9). Crime prevention represents a combination of steps and procedures taken by law enforcement stakeholders or members of the public in order to anticipate, recognise and appraise crime risk. It is rooted in the understanding that the perpetration of crime can be driven by different underlying factors. The origins of CPTED dates back to 1971, following a publication by C.  Ray Jeffery, also entitled Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design. The central argument of Jeffery’s seminal paper was that the built environment represents an important underlying determinant of crime. Jeffery (1971) evaluated the role played by the immediate environment of criminogenic activities and came to the conclusion that crime can be reduced by altering the design and configuration of these environments. The concept of CPTED is based on the idea that an efficient and effective utilisation of the physical environment helps to reduce crime. Furthermore, the concept lends itself to the argument that this consciousness ultimately translates into an improvement in the quality of life. The CPTED approach envisions the control and prevention of crime fundamentally through an architectural, planning and social thinking lens. In 1977, Jeffery made the following radical declaration: “There are no criminals…only environmental circumstances that result in criminal behaviour. Given the proper environmental structure, anyone will be a criminal or a non-criminal” (Jeffery 1977, p. 177). From an architectural and planning perspective, Jeffery posited that if the components of the

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physical environment are well arranged, this arrangement can help to ensure that crime is designed out. His social thinking hypothesis was based on the notion that social policies should be used deliberately to lessen the rewards that accrue to criminals while increasing the risks for criminal behaviours. There is a general belief that CPTED thinking is what gave birth to modern-day Environmental Criminology. A plethora of urban studies have also captured some of the benefits of deploying CPTED—namely, improved sense of security and reduced fear of crime, increased interactions among residents and stronger neighbourhood bonds, collective community policing, business investment attractiveness and partnership building (Cozens 2007; Armitage 2013; Cozens and Love 2015). The concept of defensible space, which was coined by Oscar Newman in 1972, is also closely linked to CPTED. Not long after Jeffery’s seminal paper was published, Newman also released a book entitled Defensible Space. Newman (1972) argued that places become safer when residents have a sense of ownership of the territory. In other words, in order to maintain control over criminogenic events, a community must have the capacity to defend itself. Moffat (1983) built upon Newman’s idea of defensible space and Jeffery’s CPTED to suggest that six interlinked components capacitate crime prevention through environmental design. These include territoriality, surveillance, access control, image/maintenance, activity support and target hardening. A range of criticisms have also been levied against CPTED. The concept proposes environmental design methods such as target hardening and restrictions and control of access. Some of these methods actually create urban fortresses which further entrench urban segregation (Goix 2005; Landman and Libermann 2005; Landman 2008). Another criticism of the CPTED approach is that it can lead to the displacement of crime. In most urban enclaves within developing countries, for instance, richer neighbourhoods often attract more investment for safer environmental designs than their poorer counterparts. When a neighbourhood benefits from new forms of environmental designs, the criminals that are attracted to that neighbourhood may be pushed to adjoining neighbourhoods that have not received similar design interventions (Cozens 2002).

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4.2.2 Crime Opportunity Theory Prior to the emergence or propagation of environmental perspectives to criminology, the major theoretical approaches to crime focused largely on understanding and explaining how people become offenders (Wortley 2010). At the core of environmental criminology is the notion that components of the built environment context provides offenders with the chance to engage in criminal activity. This concept of opportunity is what lies at the heart of situational crime prevention (SCP). Crime opportunity theory proposes that urban crime analysts should search for concentrations of offence targets and reduce the chances of reoffending. In 1983, Ronald Clarke summarised SCP as procedures for minimising the volume of opportunities for crime using “measures directed at highly specific forms of crime that involve the management, design, or manipulation of the immediate environment in a systematic and permanent way” (Clarke 1983, p. 225). The SCP approach employs preventive mechanisms that seek to remove or reduce the chances of reoffending. Wortley (2008) notes that the foundation of the situational crime concept relies on the assumptions that more opportunities lead to more crime, easier ones attract more offenders and such existence of easy opportunities makes possible for a lifestyle of crime within urban settings. According to Wortley, there are four main ways that the immediate environment might precipitate criminal responses in urban settings. The four Ps of urban crime precipitation are prompts, pressures, permissions and provocations. Prompts: This could include triggers such as the effect of ammunitions, signals such as ethnic discriminatory chants, imitations such as copycat crimes and expectancies such as bars or pubs known to be notorious for urban violence. Pressures: This encompasses immediate burdens to conform to gang culture such as prevailing cultism activities on the campuses of numerous Nigerian Higher Educational Institutions (Ajayi et al. 2010). Pressures can also derive from obedience to corrupt superiors and defiance of laws and law enforcement staff.

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Permissions: Nigerian public officials (who mainly reside within urban settings) have a reputation for notorious levels of corruption (Kieghe 2016). These offenders tend to systematically avoid punishment for their actions by minimising the rule, responsibility, consequences and, indeed, the victim. Provocations: Provocative precipitators embody frustrations such as road rage, crowding such as in popular open markets and environmental irritants such as riots in heat waves. Situational crime prevention within urban settings represents a fresh strategy in which the core concept deals with working with crime through an understanding of the surrounding details, rather than focusing on the crime or perpetrator (Wortley 2010). Crime opportunity theory attracts its own criticisms. Basically, SCP approaches do not alter the disposition of criminals to continue offending. These approaches merely reduce the crime opportunities exposed to criminals, for instance, by encouraging members of the public or business owners to become more vigilant. Since the disposition of offenders for criminality is not changed, criminals may seek new opportunities to perpetrate their crimes. This can be a counterproductive consequence of SCP. While there is evidence in literature that SCP diffuses benefits to adjoining urban neighbourhoods (Eck 1993; Hesseling 1994; Guerette and Bowers 2009), there is also extensive support for the view that SCP can lead to crime displacement (Barr and Pease 1990; Bowers et al. 2011; Johnson et al. 2012).

4.2.3 Routine Activity Theory There are many types of ‘everyday’ offences that are generally described as predatory crimes because these offences are simple, direct and involve the careful targeting of victims by offenders (Glaser 1971). The Routine Activity Theory is largely a theory of predatory events which focuses on explaining why offenders commit crimes, rather than how the criminal event is produced. The theory suggests that the organisation of repetitive activities in urban settings creates opportunities for crime. Essentially, within the

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framework of the theory, three specific criteria must be involved (Felson 2008). Firstly, there must be an offender who is motivated enough to commit a crime. Secondly, there must be a target against which the motivated offender can strike. And thirdly, a capable guardian for the potential victim must be absent at the place and time when the offender strikes. Urban spaces generate patterns of human activities. Over time, some of these activities become monotonous and somewhat predictable by potential offenders. The routine activity approach postulates when these behavioural patterns of human activities are interrupted by removing one of the three basic elements of the theory, criminals step into the mix to take advantage of disruption. An offender’s target can include a human being, an entity or a location. Within the context of the routine activity theory, the perceived suitability of targets have been variously described with acronyms such as VIVA (Value, Inertia, Visibility and Access) or CRAVED (Concealable, Removable, Available, Valuable, Enjoyable and Disposable) (Tseloni et al. 2012). The terms that make up these acronyms feature in the risk-­ reward calculus of offenders. A guardian is capable if their presence exhibits the ability to deter criminals or protect potential targets or victims from acts of crime. Naturally, human elements such as police officers, security guards, watchful friends, family and neighbours can act as capable guardians. However, a manned surveillance camera can also function as a capable guardian. By implication, the routine activity theory infers that a crime is only likely to be committed if the offender is persuaded by the absence or non-­ attendance of a capable guardian, and if the target is rated as appropriate by the offender. It is noteworthy to mention that the routine activity theory has undergone a number of modifications. This theory has been expanded by Eck (1995) and Felson (1995), resulting in the addition of two elements called ‘place manager’ and ‘handler’. The place manager has the ability to take nuisance abatement measures while the handler is able to exert some control over the offender. The interconnectivity of these important elements was cleverly illustrated by Eck (1994, 2003), who devised the crime analysis triangle depicted in Fig. 4.2. The crime analysis

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triangle is also often called the problem analysis triangle, often used to aid problem-oriented policing interventions. A number of criticisms have been levied against the routine activity theory. One of the assumptions of this theory is that the offender has to be motivated. However, Clarke and Cornish (1985) have shown evidence of widespread disparities in the levels of offender motivation. Furthermore, Wilcox et al. (2003) have exposed limitations in the ability of the theory to account well for crime opportunities. Sometimes, offenders act on the basis of impulse rather than well-calculated motivation. It can also be challenging when trying to combine the routing activity theory with some other theoretical perspective because the routine activity approach places emphasis on the convergence of crime. For the theory to hold, offender, victim and target must find a way to converge. However, some other criminological theories such as the crime pattern theory focus on the contagion or spreading of crime.

Off

end e

r

er Ha ndl

e

er

nag

Ma c Pla

Problem

Target/Victim

Guardian Fig. 4.2  The crime analysis triangle. Source: Authors’ elaboration based on Eck, J.E. (1994). Drug Markets and Drug Places: A Case-Control Study of the Spatial Structure of Illicit Drug Dealing. Unpublished Ph.D.  Dissertation, University of Maryland, College Park

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4.2.4 Crime Pattern Theory The crime pattern theory recognises the perpetration of crime as a complex phenomenon. Despite the complexity, proponents of the theory believe there is room for discerning some organised configurations (Brantingham and Brantingham 2008). Often, crime pattern theorists would utilise phrases such as ‘patterns in the chaos’, which implies that despite the complexity configuration of criminal activities, it is still possible to discern some form of logical ordering of these activities. The underlying premise for the crime pattern theory is that crimes do not happen randomly or uniformly in time, urban space, across social groups and during daily or lifetime routines. For all these elements, there are hot and cold crime spots. Similarly, there are those offenders who repeatedly commit crimes within urban settings and there are targets (persons and places) that repeatedly fall victim to such crimes. A systematic analysis of the characteristics of these elements within and across cities can yield discernible crime patterns which can be useful for efficient and effective operational policing in urban centres. As Brantingham and Brantingham (2008) put it: “Crimes occur within a context created by the urban form. Roads, land use, the economic forces driving a city, the socio-economic status of residents and workers and the place of the city within a hierarchy of cities in the region are all elements of the backcloth. The urban backcloth is not static” (Brantingham and Brantingham 2008, p. 87). Essentially, the crime pattern theory explains how offenders grow in their awareness of crime opportunities. The crime pattern theory yields insights into how crime concentrates within and across cities. If cities are viewed as points in space, it is possible to classify their crime concentration characteristics in terms of being crime generators, crime attractors, crime enablers and crime neutral (Brantingham and Brantingham 1995). Table  4.2 summarises these hotspot types and their underlying causes. Brantingham and Brantingham (2008) have argued that crimes are produced as a result of the non-stationarity of different components of the environment as well as the activities around these components. Therefore, in order to fully comprehend criminogenic events, it becomes

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Table 4.2  Hotspot places and causal mechanisms Hotspot type

Cause

Crime generators Crime attractors Crime enablers Crime neutral

Numerous unprotected targets (people and places) Characterised by attributes that appeal to offenders Erosion of crime controls Neither attracts offenders nor produces criminal opportunities

imperative to understand how these components converge and interact in space and time. One other important feature of this theory is that it posits that activity nodes, paths and edges exist in space and time (Brantingham and Brantingham 1993). Activity nodes are typical points of origin and destination such as home, work and points of recreational activity. Paths are the navigation routes that link activity nodes together. Edges refer to the boundaries of the areas where offenders live or work, for instance. Brantingham and Brantingham argue that the selection of suitable targets is primarily dependent on these routine activity pathways utilised by offenders and victims. As a consequence, crimes are more likely to occur nearer those nodes and paths that are shared by victims and motivated offenders. Although the crime pattern theory has been popularised within the domain of environmental criminology, it still faces some criticisms. The underlying assumptions that are used to create the routine activities triangle comprising nodes, paths and edges focus largely on the behaviours of criminals and victims which can change from time to time. Consequently, the theory struggles to address the root causes of crime.

4.2.5 Broken Windows Theory Some urban centres can be notorious for attracting problems that stimulate disorderliness. The broken windows theory is developed on the notion that unattended problems in urban public spaces have the potential to influence the attitudes of people in a negative way. The first appearance of this theory is credited to a 1982 article published in the Atlantic by James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling. Wilson

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and Kelling (1982) hypothesised that if a broken window is left unrepaired within a building, more broken windows will follow because no one bothered about the original broken window. Sousa and Kelling (2006) enumerate the central ideas that underpin the theory as follows: • Disorder and fear of crime are strongly linked • Police negotiate rules of the street. “Street people” are involved in the negotiation of those rules • Different neighbourhoods have different rules • Untended disorder leads to breakdown of community controls • Areas where community controls break down are vulnerable to criminal invasion • The essence of the police role in maintaining order is to reinforce the informal control mechanisms of the community itself • Problems arise not so much from individual disorderly persons as it does from the congregation of large numbers of disorderly persons • Different neighbourhoods have different capacities to manage disorder By implication, this theory suggests that when urban environments are well-tended and emerging problems are addressed swiftly, public attitudes are also affected positively, resulting in continuity in good urban maintenance practices and safer environments. It thrives on the idea that by nipping minor offences in the bud quickly, it is possible to greatly reduce more serious forms of crime (Kelling and Coles 1996). Although petty antisocial behaviours such as littering or illegal graffiti may not pose immediate threats to urban residents, when there is a habit of permitting these petty behaviours, criminal offenders can become psychologically emboldened to commit more serious crimes. Within urban settings, this theory is not merely considered for problem fixing, but it also lends itself to the maintenance and possible improvement of urban landscapes (Kelling and Coles 1996). The consequence of this is that potential vandals get the message that residents of a well-maintained urban environment are vigilant and that they care about the safety and orderliness of their neighbourhood. The broken windows theory has grown steadily in popularity as a crime deterrence approach (Welsh et al. 2015). However, it has also attracted

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some criticisms. Critics of the theory believe that it underpins biased targeting of people, especially minority ethnic populations (Fagan and Davies 2000). However, Sousa and Kelling believe that the theory has been misapplied in certain instances. They contend that the theory was not designed to bolster policies and practices that directly or indirectly exacerbate tensions between law enforcement officials and minority population groups (Sousa and Kelling 2006). Another limitation of the broken windows approach relates to changing policing priorities which can be triggered by fluctuations in the stability of the broader economy. In an era of austerity or in urban settings where policing resources are tight, budget spending tends to be focused on statutory issues (Ojo et al. 2017). It is unlikely that resources would be deployed towards chasing jaywalkers as this could be considered a waste of scarce resources. In such circumstance, broken windows thinking is relegated to the back burner.

4.2.6 Rational Choice Theory At the heart of the rational choice perspective are the concepts of choice, decision-making, present centeredness and the fact that successful perpetration of criminogenic events embellishes the motivation of offenders to develop criminal lifestyles (Cornish and Clarke 2008). Cornish and Clarke (2008) offer six principles and decision-making models which can be adapted when unpacking urban crime from a rational choice perspective. • • • • • •

Criminal behaviour is purposive Criminal behaviour is rational Criminal decision-making is crime-specific Crime choices fall into two groups—involvement and event choices There are separate stages of involvement Criminal events unfold in a sequence of stages and decisions

In principle, the position of the rational choice perspective is that criminals think exactly the same way as non-criminals. Crime perpetrators

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within urban settings intentionally choose to commit offences largely because they feel it would be more rewarding for them than non-criminal behaviour (Cornish and Clarke 1986; Nagin 2007). The rational choice theory places greater emphasis on the influence of purposive behaviour in the risk-reward calculus of offenders. This suggestion that crime is unlikely to be impulsive is considered by some scholars as a limitation of the theory. A range of recent studies have been conducted to address this limitation. Lindegaard et  al. (2014) showed that impulsive emotions can have significant effects on the predisposition to commit crime. In this study, the researchers investigated the association between emotions and robbery. Based on direct interviews with 76 robbery offenders in the Netherlands, they analysed the impact of different forms of impulsive emotions during different phases of robbery. Results from their study suggest that fear (described as the prospects of a non-cooperating victim; uncertainty about whether the victims could be criminals; the risk of being caught by the police; and a lack of previous experience of the consequence of robberies) exerted significant influence before or during the robbery. They also discovered that happiness was a dominant emotion after the robbery. According to Lindegaard et al., “the potential of earning quick and easy money stands in sharp contrast with the difficulties of keeping victims under control and being able to trust and rely on co-­ offenders” (Lindegaard et al. 2014, p. 25). They reached a conclusion that the decision to undertake a robbery was not necessarily because criminals perceive it to be more rewarding as the rational choice theory suggests, but that it was more of an emotional thing. Another interesting study that shows that other extenuating factors may influence offenders and that they may not always act rationally, is the work of Wright et al. (2004). This study was based on longitudinal observation data from New Zealand. The influence of deterrence measures (getting caught and social sanctions) on the rationality of offenders was tested alongside criminal propensity. A limitation of this study is that it lacked a component that measures the reward for criminals which should represent the pull factor towards criminality. Results from the study did indeed show that the cost and risk attributed to criminality most deterred those individuals who had low levels of self-control and higher levels of self-perceived criminality. The results also proved that

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when criminal propensity is very low, threatened punishment did not cause these individuals to think rationally. These deterrent measures had no effect at all on the decision to commit a crime or to abstain. Furthermore, the study confirmed that when some offenders are under the influence of external stimulants such as drugs, they are unlikely to act rationally.

4.3 U  sing Theories and Empirical Frameworks to Support Evidence-Based Security Decision-Making Ultimately, the goal of urban security decision-makers is to reduce experiences of victimisation and exposure to crime for urban dwellers to the barest minimum. Within this purview, there are at least two cultural shifts taking place across global urban security landscapes for which the cross-fertilisation of agile theoretical and empirical approaches are crucial. Firstly, there is the recognition that there is a need to strengthen the quantitative abilities of urban law enforcement agents (Huey and Ricciardelli 2016). Secondly, the increased emphasis on evidence-based practice among urban policymakers (Sherman 2013) requires effective methods for evaluating policing innovations. Understanding what works in crime prevention and reduction is important for policymakers and law enforcement agents in cities. The systematic integration of theories and empirical approaches help to galvanise the efforts of a multiplicity of stakeholders to reduce urban crime by articulating efficient and effective mechanisms for strategic and operational decision-making within a diversified urban crime landscape. The process of wrapping empirical methods around urban criminological theories can prove advantageous for urban security decision-­ making in at least four ways. This process helps to generate more informed decisions. This happens when evidence is translated into practical insights that law enforcement agents and their service partners can easily utilise (Lum 2009). Law enforcement stakeholders are generally introduced to a range of concepts related to environmental criminology. Empirical prac-

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tice allows for the codification of these concepts based on the awareness of place, opportunity and the situational quality of crime. Secondly, urban dwellers can benefit from better value for money. Empirical approaches help to detangle some of the complexities associated with theories in ways that help to create clear sets of guidance for urban decision-makers (Sherman 2016). Doing this helps decision-­ makers to access, adapt and apply evidence locally or regionally in order to make informed choices about where to spend and disinvest resources. One of the challenges confronting urban security decision-makers in cities across the developing world is the need to continue to reassure the public and also demonstrate accountability (Etannibi and Chukwuma 2011). The combination of theoretical frameworks and empirical evidence allows stakeholders to have knowledge about what works in public safety with the public. Doing this further helps to stimulate confidence in law enforcement agencies and their service partners. The process of addressing crime-related problems in cities requires integrated, multi-stakeholder collaboration. Crime control and reduction is not a task for a single stakeholder because there are multiple ‘faces’ of crime which require experiences and expertise from multiple knowledge domains. Theories and shared empirical frameworks help to facilitate collaboration and partnership working across different organisations. This also allows for the building and strengthening of links between law enforcement agencies, voluntary services and the academic sector.

4.4 R  eflections: The Case for a New Wave of African Urban Ecological Theories of Crime When it comes to resolving practical urban criminogenic problems, there is often no magic bullet. Rather, it is common practice to integrate theories with the hope of gaining more holistic understanding and providing better explanation for urban delinquency. The process of theoretical integration entails fusing together constructs and concepts from competing theories into a potentially more homogeneous theoretical framework.

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There have been a number of recent crime studies conducted across African urban spaces. However, few of these studies seem to have practically and empirically implemented common criminological theories such as those discussed in this chapter (Pérouse de Montclos 2016). As a result, the relevance of existing ecological theories and their associated constructs and concepts, such as collective efficacy, social cohesion and community fragmentation, amongst others, across urban contexts in Africa are largely unknown. African cities exhibit unique social, economic, political and environmental characteristics. For instance, urban expansion is transforming agricultural and commercial systems, which affects access to markets, the role of traders, the role of cities in the economic and social development of their surrounding regions and patterns of income diversification and mobility (Atu et al. 2013). An assessment of existing ecological theories is, therefore, an important requirement not only in the evaluation of the preconceptions originating from other contexts in the standards and customs of African urban crime cultures but also in the possible development of a new wave of ecological theories that take cognizance of the peculiarities of African cities. It has been shown in this section that there are a plethora of ecological theories linked to the study of environmental delinquency. However, there are considerable differences in the opinions and assumptions underpinning these theories. Furthermore, there is no consensus among these theories on the relationship between environmental characteristics and crime (Schulenberg 2003). Africa has contributed very little to the theoretical tradition in criminology. In the remainder of this section, we present a set of arguments to support the call for the development of ecological theories that can be tailored to cater for some of the peculiarities of African urban environments. The dynamic morphological structures of African cities require flexibility when trying to practically test the theories (Stren and Halfani 2001). Current Euro-American theories are underpinned by assumptions that follow strict design guidelines for all areas. These assumptions rarely give consideration to the different urban contexts in which they are applied. The rigid assumptions of these Euro-American theories often result in one-size-fits-all problem-solving approaches (Poyner 1993;

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Nubani and Wineman 2005). One-size-fits-all solutions may not be effective for addressing criminogenic problems in African cities. A thorough review of popular ecological theories reveals that these theories were largely developed without community engagement. This represents a major weakness and can prove challenging when trying to implement them in African cities where top-down problem-solving approaches rarely yield positive outcomes. This is because during the implementation phase, top-down theories trigger opposition from urban residents (Grohe 2011). Future development of ecological theories should, therefore, seek to embellish a public-participation ethos. A common thread that seems to run through the majority of the existing Euro-American ecological theories of crime is that they encourage the creation of fortress societies, for instance, by promoting design concepts such as access control and target hardening. Increasingly, those African cities that try to replicate these procedures are unconsciously slipping into segregated communities—with the rich on one side and the poor on the other. Large Nigerian cities have witnessed the rise of multiple segregated urban developments protected by high walls, high gates and guard dog (Adedeji et al. 2016). Another argument in support of a new wave of ecological theories is that current theories inadvertently discourage urban dwellers from utilising public spaces. The vast majority of African cities are vibrant hives of human activities (Myers 2011). However, some of the current Euro-­ American theories suggest that as a result of increased opportunities, victimisation increases when residents utilise public spaces. This underlying theoretical assumption may not be favourable in African urban settings, where tropical weather conditions encourage outdoor activities almost all year long. Some of the crime reduction proposals that characterise the implementation of Euro-American theories are not cost-effective (Wortley 2010), and therefore, unsustainable within African urban settings over the long term. For instance, spatial and temporal displacement of crime is a well-known shortcoming of CPTED.  In settings where funding is tight, interventions based on this theoretical thinking may represent a drain on resources. The long-term sustainable implementation of urban policy initiative in Africa is crucial because resources are scarce. Cozens

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(2002) accepts that there is no clear association between some mainstream ecological theories and the ethos of sustainability. A final argument in support of a new wave of theories relates to the rapid levels of urbanisation being witnessed across the continent. Africa is home to the fastest growing cities in the world (Bloch et al. 2015). By implication, many African cities are quickly losing their pre-colonial features and becoming more globally and regionally connected. This further triggers greater levels of social diversity that often characterise ­post-­industrial cities. These rapid levels of urbanisation, changing social geographies and fluid urban transitions are generating twenty-first-century emerging urban criminogenic problems, which the less dynamic theories developed for twentieth-century Euro-American settings are unable to handle. This provides a very unique platform to begin the development of a new wave of ecological theories that are fit-for-purpose in twenty-­first-­century African urban settings.

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Stevenson, D. (2013). Cities and Urban Cultures. Maidenhead: Open University Press. Stren, R., & Halfani, M. (2001). The Cities of Sub-Saharan Africa: From Dependency to Marginality. In R.  Paddison (Ed.), Handbook of Urban Studies. London: Sage Publications. Tseloni, A., Farrell, G., Tilley, N., Grove, L., Thompson, R., & Garius, L. (2012). Towards a Comprehensive Research Plan on Opportunity Theory and the Crime Falls. In J.  van Dijk, A.  Tseloni, & G.  Farrell (Eds.), The International Crime Drop. Crime Prevention and Security Management. London: Palgrave Macmillan. UNODC. (2010). Handbook on the Crime Prevention Guidelines: Making Them Work. Vienna: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. Welsh, B. C., Braga, A. A., & Bruinsma, G. J. N. (2015). Reimagining Broken Windows: From Theory to Policy. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 52(4), 447–463. Whetten, D. A. (1989). What Constitutes a Theoretical Contribution? Academy of Management Review, 14(4), 490–495. Wilcox, P., Land, K. C., & Hunt, S. (2003). Criminal Circumstance: A Dynamic Multicontextual Criminal Opportunity Theory. New York: Walter de Gruyter. Wilson, J. Q., & Kelling, G. L. (1982, March). Broken Windows: The Police and Neighborhood Safety. Atlantic Monthly, 249(3), 29–38. Wortley, R. (2008). Situational Precipitators of Crime. In R.  Wortley & L. Mazerolle (Eds.), Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis. London: Willan Publishing. Wortley, R. (2010). Critiques of Situational Crime Prevention. In B. Fisher & S.  Lab (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Victimology and Crime Prevention. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. Wright, B. R. E., Caspi, A., Moffitt, T. E., & Paternoster, R. (2004). Does the Perceived Risk of Punishment Deter Criminally Prone Individuals? Rational Choice, Self-Control, and Crime. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 41(2), 180–213.

5 A Framework for Intercity Comparative Analysis of Crime

5.1 A  rguments in Support of Intercity Comparative Analysis of Crime Urban crime is one of the most significant perils driving changes in the political, economic and social processes occurring in African cities, yet remarkably few contemporary attempts have been made to compare crime across cities. A range of factors combine to hinder the capability of public sector stakeholders to undertake rigorous city-level comparisons. Such factors include differences in data collection, inconsistent technical definition of what is urban, challenges associated with defining geographic extent of urban settlements, variations in the measurement intervals of crime statistics and lack of rigorous and well-defined comparative frameworks. Urban crime transcends the spatial domain (local crime to cross-­border crimes), and in the temporal dimension from daily to seasonal and even longer-term sitting duck problems (Chainey and Ratcliffe 2005). These dynamics also contribute to the inevitable complexity associated with measuring crime in a comparative sense. However, given the significant consequence of crime on cities, its codification on the basis of verifiable © The Author(s) 2019 A. Ojo, O. Ojewale, Urbanisation and Crime in Nigeria, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-19765-0_5

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observations and the development of common standards and key measures of comparison is important for decision-makers. Usually, when dealing with crime problems in a national context, rival explanations of underlying causes in different urban jurisdictions may arise (Cullen and Levitt 1999). If cities are examined in isolation, stakeholders miss out on the big picture. A central objective of intercity comparison, therefore, is the systematic assessment of co-variation of crime statistics among urban settlements for the purpose of possible causal analysis. Robust intercity comparative analysis of crime plays a crucial role in criminological concept-formation (Bond and Gebo 2012). Such analysis help public safety officials to bring suggestive similarities and contrasts into focus in a clear manner. This is of particular importance to public safety organisations in the Global South, where there is increasing public pressure on resources as well as rising expectation for the transparent allocation of these resources (Bond and Gebo 2012). Traditional and contemporary research paradigms for classical environmental criminological enquiry tend to develop explicit sets of hypothesis that are testable by the application of a prospectively defined experiment (Birks et  al. 2012). A hypothesis is primarily an educated guess about the likely outcome of a research undertaking (Sarantakos 2013). Placing urban centres side by side using different sets of comparative metrics facilitates the inductive discovery of new urban crime hypothesis and theory building. Intercity comparative analysis of crime can be essential for narrowing down multiple alternating policy questions to one that can reasonably be studied. Intercity comparative frameworks help to sharpen the power of describing criminological events and outcomes. This is particularly important for those policy stakeholders from a non-technical background (Harrison 2000). For these group of stakeholders, measures of individual cities become more meaningful when placed in a comparative context. This process represents a very efficient way for explicating tacit knowledge about urban crime. When the criminological qualities of single cities are examined in isolation, the distinctive features of such cities may not be immediately obvious. For instance, if a city belongs to a researcher’s own cultural

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e­ nvironment, over-familiarity may cause that researcher to struggle with perceiving the special criminological characteristics of such a city unless it is juxtaposed with other urban centres. Comparing and contrasting crime metrics of cities help scholars and practitioners to unmask the changing criminological identities of urban settlements. In developing countries such as Nigeria, the monitoring and evaluation of urban criminological interventions is integral for the attraction and disbursement of human, financial and material resources for sustainable urban development (May et al. 2000). The monitoring of criminological interventions requires regular collection of information about such interventions from city to city. This helps to show policymakers whether interventions are receiving the required input and activity supplies they require. The evaluation of criminological interventions asks whether the intervention is accomplishing what it set out to do. Evaluating crime policy interventions across cities also help to test whether it is making a difference in the lives of urban dwellers (May et  al. 2000). The comparative ethos is what sits at the heart of urban crime monitoring and evaluation. Without efficient sets of comparative metrics, it would be practically impossible to monitor and evaluate crime interventions efficiently. By placing cities on a comparative framework, policymakers gain better understanding of where interventions are working, how they are working and where they are working. The multifaceted and complex nature of crime means that it is highly unlikely that a single measure of crime will capture its complexity. Every intercity comparative statistic has strengths as well as limitations. In this book, the framework proposed for a comparative assessment of crime in urban settlements is based on a number of important principles. Firstly, there is a notion that there are generic themes of enquiry that define the comparative objectives of scholars and practitioners. Secondly, urban settlements are assumed to be entities that are similar in some respects (it would not be meaningful to compare ‘apples with pears’, for instance) but they differ in some other respects. Thirdly, these dissimilarities in crime configuration become the focus of comparative evaluation for urban stakeholders. The goal, therefore, is to find out why urban centres are different and to expose the general underlying structure and rules that govern and generate such variations.

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5.2 Crime Frequency As a starting point, urban crime practitioners generally seek to describe how often crime events occur among the population. Frequency measures give a sense of the burden of crime within urban centres. If the aim of a comparative analysis is to describe the regularity of type of crime among urban dwellers, frequency measures are used. Frequency measures are also useful not just for counting crime, but also for ascertaining levels and risk of crime. Prior to discussing metrics that are useful for comparing the urban centres on the basis of crime frequency, we briefly describe some relevant measurement values. Count: This is generally used to represent the number of urban dwellers who have been victims of crime. It can also represent the number of criminological events that have occurred. Proportion: The proportion of urban crime is not necessarily dependent upon time. It may be expressed as a fraction or a percentage. A proportion represents the fraction of the urban population that is affected by crime. Rate: Rates are used to measure the frequency with which a criminological event occurs in a defined urban population in a defined time. It has a time dimension. Ratio: Ratios are derived by dividing one quantity by another. Ratios are not dependent on time and they are infrequently used. We now discuss three important metrics of crime frequency that can be used for placing urban centres in a comparative framework.

5.2.1 Volume of Urban Crime The volume of urban crime refers to the actual number of crime counts in an urban area at a defined point in time (Harries 1999). Counting the number of crimes is an important basic measure of disease frequency that is essential to discovering trends or the sudden occurrence of an urban crime problem. For instance, a sudden rise in the volume of crime can be indicative of the entrance of a new form of crime in an urban setting or the effect of a policy intervention.

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In addition to quickly scanning for anomalies in crime trends, simple counts of the number of crimes are important to law enforcement organisations and policymakers for assessing the need for resources in a population (Rogerson 2008). A core strength for measures of volume is that they are more meaningful numerical measures in a practical sense. Tell an urban policymaker that an urban centre will experience a 1.35% rise in crime per day and they may look confused. But tell the same policymaker that the urban centre will witness 30 more cases of violent crime in a month and they have something more meaningful to work with. However, the evaluation of policing resource needs on the basis of the volume of crime alone can often prove problematic. For instance, the volume of crime across cities may generate discussion among stakeholders, but basic count data do not give any sense of the underlying problem (Rogerson 2008). Additionally, comparing cities on the basis of the volume of crime only makes sense when this is relativised against a denominator. A limitation of just counting the number of crimes is that it does not allow fair comparisons to be made between cities because they do not take the total number of urban residents into consideration.

5.2.2 Prevalence of Urban Crime Urban crime prevalence describes levels of existing cases of crime. It measures the proportion of crime victims in a defined urban population that have experienced crime at a specified point in time or during a specified period (Rogerson 2005). Urban crime prevalence is useful for reflecting the burden of crime across urban centres. The burden of urban crime is reflected not just in terms of demand on resources but also in terms of its bearing on a given population. Prevalence measures can help decision-­ makers to determine where community safety investments and interventions should be targeted. For instance, the prevalent number of youth gang violence around urban secondary schools may predict the need for effective school-based programmes that are aimed at changing the school environment as opposed to interventions that focus on changing individuals alone.

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When comparing urban centres, the prevalence of crime can be calculated in two main ways, shown in Eqs.  5.1 and 5.2. Point prevalence measures the proportion of urban dwellers that experience crime at a particular point in time, while period prevalence measures the proportion of urban dwellers experiencing crime over a period of time (Shrader 2001). Point prev. =

Victims at a particular point in time ×1000 Number of persons in urban population at the same point in time (5.1)

Victims at the start of the period + Victims over the time period Period prev. = ×1000 Number of persons in specified urban popullation (5.2)

In general, period prevalence provides the better measure of urban crime prevalence because it subsumes all new criminological events between two dates. The calculation of the prevalence of various criminological events across different urban centres or amongst different urban population sub-groups and then juxtaposing with the prevalence of other possible risk factors can be particularly useful when planning urban security services. It is, however, noteworthy to mention that crime prevalence does not serve as a useful metric for establishing the determinants of crime in an urban population.

5.2.3 Incidence of Urban Crime The third metric used to evaluate urban centres in terms of the frequency of crime is ‘incidence’. While the prevalence of urban crime represents the existing cases of criminological events, the incidence reflects the num-

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ber of new crime events during a fixed time period relative to the number of urban residents at risk. The accuracy of the crime incidence metric depends upon the diagnostic proficiency of urban law enforcement ­institutions as well as crime reporting efficiency (Wilson and Brewer 2007). Two measures of urban crime frequency are used to express new cases of criminological events. These include the incidence risk and incidence rate. The incidence risk of urban crime is simply the probability that an urban resident will experience crime (Shrader 2001). The concept of crime risk is fairly intuitive. For instance, if a group of urban residents who have not experienced crime were followed or monitored for a period of time, it is possible to determine the proportion of people who ultimately experience crime during this period of observation. This enables the observer to calibrate an estimate of the probability of experiencing crime. Equation 5.3 shows how to calculate urban crime incidence risk. Incidence risk =

Victims during a time period Number of urban residents observed during time period (5.3)

Although the estimation of incidence risk in this manner is appealing due to its simplicity, it presents challenges when trying to assess the long-­ term probability of experiencing crime. This is because an accurate measurement of crime risk relies upon the capability to observe the same set of individuals throughout the observation period. This can prove operationally challenging. The second metric of urban crime frequency that expresses incidence is the crime incidence rate. In Sect. 5.2, we showed that rate almost always subsumes a time dimension. The crime incidence rate is a metric calculated as the number of new crime events/victims per unit of time. While the risk metric is a proportional measure of the number of new crime events per person over a defined period of time, the incidence rate is the ratio of the number of crime victims to the time at risk of the crime. Crime incidence rate is assessed using the notation given in Eq. 5.4.

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Incidence rate =

Victims experiencing a crime Total time at risk for the urban residents observed (5.4)

Urban criminological studies of incidence are conducted among groups of urban dwellers as they move through time; therefore, the denominator when calculating incidence rate is a combination of the number of urban residents and the amount of time. This is expressed as person-time. The time units can be expressed in days, months or years, but should be linked to the length of the study. Assume that 100 urban dwellers were observed for one year and two months into the year, 20 participants decided to withdraw from the study. Six months later, 50 further participants decided to join the study. At the end of the study, ten crime victims were identified as shown in Table 5.1. In this scenario, it is difficult to calculate the crime incidence risk because different groups of participants were at risk of victimisation at different points in time during the study. Therefore, it is more appropriate to calculate the crime incidence rate. The incidence rate is the total number of victims divided by the person-­ time at risk during the observation period. In Table 5.1, incidence rate is 10 victims/1300 person-month at risk  =  0.0077 victims per person-­ month at risk or 0.092 victims per person-year (0.0077 × 12) or 9 victims per 100 person-years at risk. Although interpreting incidence rate can be challenging, it is a preferred measure of crime occurrence when the population being studied is not closed. Table 5.1  Calculation of crime incidence rate Participant group

Observation period (months)

Participant/observation period at risk

Victims

20 80 50 Total

2 12 6

40 960 300 1300

4 4 2 10

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5.3 Concentration of Crime Various environmental criminology studies have shown that crimes tend to cluster around particular types of victims and certain types of functional land uses (Block and Block 1995; Farrell and Pease 2001). The measurement of urban crime concentration seeks to explain the criminological propensities of victims as well as urban land uses. For urban law enforcement agencies, crime concentration metrics help to identify those victims and urban activities that attract greater numbers of potential offenders. Weisburd and Amram (2014) used empirical evidence to illustrate that crime concentrates at small units of geography within urban centres. Just as crime bunches together within a limited number of small urban places, others have also suggested that a limited number of urban victims tend to attract urban crime (Outlaw et  al. 2002). Different research studies have identified crime concentration as the principal reason why certain urban areas suffer much crime (Johnson 2010; Oliveira et al. 2017). According to Rogerson (2008), large proportions of crime are the consequence of high levels of concentration.

5.3.1 Urban Crime Concentration Among Victims Intercity concentration of crime may be evaluated in a number of ways. Firstly, cities may be assessed in terms of the propensity for crime to cluster among victims. This type of assessment of crime concentration evaluates the density of repeat victimisation across urban centres. Crime concentration among victims can be measured as the ratio of victimisations to the number of victims as denoted in Eq. 5.5. Concentration =

Number of victimisations Number of victims

(5.5)

Results from this type of analysis yields the mean number of incidents per victim for each city. Cities with higher mean values are one indicator of the extent to which repeat victimisation occurs.

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5.3.2 Urban Crime Concentration at Places Just as it is possible to compare cities on the basis of crime concentration among victims, it is also possible to measure the clustering of crime around criminogenic urban locations and then use that as a basis to compare cities. For instance, law enforcement agents may want to measure the propensity for bars, grocery shops, schools, markets or bus stations to attract crime. McCord and Ratcliffe (2009) propose a technique called the Intensity Value Analysis (IVA) for achieving this. The IVA weighs crime events based on their relative proximity to the type of land use under study within a constraining buffer. The notation given in Eq. 5.6 illustrates how the IVA can be calculated.



λτ ( r ) = ∑1 − di ≤τ

di τ

(5.6)

Where: λτ(r) represents intensity value of crime for land use r given a bandwidth τ, where τ > 0 di represents the distance between the facility and a crime point within the bandwidth Basically, the IVA searches for all crime events within a certain distance from the land use facility of interest and assigns a suitable weight between 1 and 0 to each crime event. The weights are assigned such that points closer to the land use facility receive higher weights.

5.4 Fear of Crime Within much of criminological literature, the fear of crime has often been addressed from an emotional and cognitive perspective (Jackson 2008). One of the challenges often encountered when trying to quantify fear is that urban residents struggle with differentiation of fear from perceived risk of crime. The fear of crime refers much more to an individual’s emotive response to crime-related events. Garofalo (1981) described fear

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of crime as “an emotional reaction characterised by a sense of danger and anxiety” (Garofalo 1981, p. 840). Conversely, perceived risk of crime is an indication of an individual’s cognitive valuation of the crime levels of crime taking place around them (Ferraro and Grange 1987). However, Jackson (2005) argued that the fear of crime is a set of empirically distinct but related constructs that subsume emotion, risk perception, vulnerability and environmental perception. These differences show the difficulty in reaching an agreement on the definition of fear of crime. It also emphasises the value of a strong theoretical basis when developing the building blocks for measuring the fear of crime. Levels of fear of crime in urban centres is typically calibrated from crime victimisation surveys and may be measured in a number of ways. For instance, participants in such a consultation may be asked to indicate their frequency of worry about becoming a victim of crime. Similarly, questions may be asked about the likelihood of falling victim to crime locally or away from their community. Another type of question that may be used to gauge the levels of fear of crime is the perception of urban residents of control over the possibility of becoming a victim of crime or perceptions of the seriousness of the consequences of crime. Urban residents can also be asked to indicate the opinions of the extent of social and physical incivilities in the neighbourhood. Similarly, community cohesion questions relating to informal social control, trust and social capital assessment can be used to gauge levels of fear of crime. Most crime victimisation surveys use a Likert scale to psychometrically ask questions related to the fear of crime. Where a Likert scale is used, levels of fear can be calculated by creating a composite measure from the weighted prevalence of different echelons of fear. For instance, if respondents to the victimisation survey are asked to indicate their level of fear of crime using a 5-level Likert scale: Very fearful; fearful; a little fearful; not at all fearful; and don’t know. The three levels of fear could be assigned the representative weights: • Very fearful (Weight = 0.5) • Fearful (Weight = 0.3) • A little fearful (Weight = 0.2)

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The composite intensity of fear for each urban centre may be calculated using the notation shown in Eq. 5.7.

Intensity of Fear = Pw i i + Pj w j + Pk wk



(5.7)

Where: Piwi represents the product of the prevalence and weight of being very fearful of crime Pjwj represents the product of the prevalence and weight of being fearful of crime Pkwk represents the product of the prevalence and weight of being a little fearful of crime Where this metric is used, the complete absence of fear of crime is generally dysfunctional because the individual is not motivated to take reasonable cautionary measures. A small amount of fear is functional partly because it is sufficient to produce reasonable caution. However, heightened levels of the intensity of fear can quickly become dysfunctional again largely because behavioural and attitudinal responses provided by participants often go beyond what is necessary to prevent victimisation. Although it is believed by researchers that the newer forms of measuring fear of crime are more accurate (Jackson 2005), these measures—like others—have their strengths and weaknesses.

5.5 Crime Specialisation Traditional criminologists tend to be more interested in the occurrence of urban offences than the patterns of those offences (Wortley 2010). However, it is precisely these patterns of urban offences that yield predictive information and provide greater understanding of offending behaviour and its causes as well as contribute to the improvement of prevention. Urban crime specialisation is one of the approaches that provide urban policymakers with a sense of underlying patterns of crime by searching for offence combinations within the criminal career of offenders.

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Crime specialisation gauges the levels of versatility of urban offenders in committing certain forms of crimes (Cornish and Clarke 1989). Urban offenders become versatile when they are not troubled by questions of legitimacy of a prohibition. A versatile offender will defy laws without distinction or any felt need for one. Specialisation can be explored within offence categories or in terms of the relationship between different offence categories in order to define the occurrence of typical offence patterns within that specialisation. The location quotient is a useful metric for evaluating the relative specialisation of different crime types across urban centres. The location quotient provides an alternate measurement to crime rates. The metric emerged with the field of economic geography in the 1940s (Isard et al. 1998; Miller et al. 1991). Proponents originally used it to assess employment dynamics and industrial specialisation. The metric can be calibrated for various crime types and urban centres using the notation in Eq. 5.8. LQ =

Cin / Ctn N

∑C / ∑C in



n =1

(5.8)

N

n =1

tn



Where: Cin represents the count of crime i in city n Ctn represents the count of all crimes in city n N represents the total number of Nigerian cities included in the analysis The utilisation of the location quotient in criminogenic research was first explored in the 1990s by Paul and Patricia Brantingham (Brantingham and Brantingham 1993, 1995, 1998). More recently, the metric has found widespread use by other scholars (Andresen 2006; McCord and Ratcliffe 2007; Ratcliffe and Rengert 2008; Ha and Andresen 2017). If the location quotient is equal to one, an urban centre exhibits a proportional share of a particular crime; if the location quotient is greater than one, the urban centre has a disproportionately larger share of a particular crime; and if the location quotient is less than one, the urban centre has a disproportionately smaller share of a particular crime. As

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Table 5.2  Interpreting results of the location quotient analysis Location quotient value/range

Interpretation

0 ≤ LQ ≤ 0.70 0.71