Towards an Understanding of Juvenile Delinquency: A Study of 8,464 Cases of Juvenile Delinquency in Baltimore 9780231898621

Table of contents :
Foreword
Acknowledgments
Contents
Tables
Maps
Graphs
I. Introduction
II. Variables of the Present Study
III. Analysis of Differential Delinquency Rates
IV. Multiple and Partial Correlation Analysis
V. Factor Analysis
VI. Further Correlational Analysis
VII. Conclusion
Appendix A. The People of Baltimore-yesterday and Today
Appendix B. Socio-Economic Variables and Housing in Baltimore
Appendix C. The Negro and the Foreign-Born in Baltimore
Appendix D. Maps of Baltimore Showing Distribution of Variables by Census Tracts
Selected Bibliography
Index

Citation preview

T O W A R D S AN UNDERSTANDING OF JUVENILE DELINQUENCY N U M B E R 5 7 8 OF T H E

Studies in History, Economics, and Public Law EDITED BY T H E F A C U L T Y OF P O L I T I C A L SCIENCE OF C O L U M B I A UNIVERSITY

Towards an Understanding of

JUVENILE DELINQUENCY A STUDY OF 8,464 CASES OF JUVENILE DELINQUENCY IN BALTIMORE

By BERNARD LANDER

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS NEW YORK, 1954

COPYRIGHT COLUMBIA

19S4

UNIVERSITY NEW

PUBLISHED

IN

GREAT B R I T A I N , I N D I A , AND BY GEOFFREY

CANADA,

PAKISTAN CUMBERLEGE,

OXFORD U N I V E R S I T Y LONDON,

PRESS

TORONTO,

B O M B A Y , AND

KARACHI

MANUFACTURED UNITED

PRESS,

YORK

S T A T E S OF

IN

THE

AMERICA

TO MY

WIFE

AND

MY

PARENTS

FOREWORD have been preaching that statistical studies are no more than a starting point of a social investigation. A n y study in any of the social sciences that is content to present as its " findings " a series of statistical tables is abortive. A n y study that, having produced some statistical tables, proceeds forthwith to read off the conclusions is most likely to be superficial. Statistics should not be taken as signposts that tell us where the road leads. They are not the data of the social sciences—their data are social phenomena. Statistics are indispensable evidences of these phenomena. In order that they may serve their true role three processes of investigation are called for. T h e first is of course a thorough familiarization with the subject matter to which they refer. Second is the f r a m i n g of hypotheses suggested by a scrutiny of the statistics, and here a trained imagination is of first importance. The third stage is the testing of these hypotheses on the one hand by checking the statistics afresh, breaking them down in new ways and seeking new relevant evidences, and on the other by relating them to previously established conclusions in order to discover their consistency with what is already known. F O R M A N Y YEARS I

None of these processes is easy. There are no short cuts to substitute for them. N o mechanical reliance on techniques will take us anywhere. Social investigation is an enterprise that makes high demands. Much of the research that passes for it evades the problem. It is, therefore, with all the greater satisfaction that one welcomes a study that meets the challenge. Dr. Bernard Lander has done so in his study of delinquency in the city of Baltimore. H e exposed the weaknesses of much of the work done in the investigation of the causes of delinquency, bringing out the defects of the methods on which certain conclusions have been

Vili

FOREWORD

based. Dr. Lander, who is well equipped as a statistician, is not content until he reaches out to the meaningful human relations that lie back of the correlations. In the judgment of this writer he has made a definite advance in the exploration of his subject. W h a t he has done in his investigation of delinquency in one southern city may well serve as a lead for a new series of illuminating investigations. T h e attempt to arrive at causal relations is the most thorny of all the problems a social investigator has to face. H e is beset by the endlessly changing variety of situations and by the complexity of social interactions. And yet nearly every sociological study is directly or indirectly concerned with the connection between things. T h e goal of science is sometimes said to be prediction, and it is true that the ability to predict implies some kind of effective control over the materials under investigation. But the further goal of science is not prediction—in many fields prediction plays a secondary role or may be entirely unimport a n t ; the end of science is comprehension, and that word has a special meaning in the area of human relations. T o comprehend human relations is to make them understandable in the light of human responses to conditions. Nevertheless, it is obvious that if we could predict whether under such and such conditions the delinquency rate would rise or fall we would be a long step nearer to understanding also. T h i s truth Dr. Lander perceives. While in much of the present study he nominally limits himself to the problem of prediction, he has always in view the need to relate statistical probabilities to the understandable behavior of human beings. Starting from that position he is able effectively to combine clear-cut analysis with genuine social perception. R. M.

MACIVER

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS T H I S S T U D Y grew out of a survey of the problems of juvenile delinquency conducted by the Maryland State Commission on Juvenile Delinquency. James P. Hepbron, Director of the Baltimore Criminal Justice Commission, was the chairman of the state commission. I wish to acknowledge my indebtedness to the many individuals whose assistance and advice I have received in carrying out this study and in the preparation of this monograph. I am especially indebted to Professors R. M. Maclver and William S. Robinson for their constant guidance, criticism, and encouragement throughout the planning, conduct, and writing of this study; to the late Dr. Thurber Fales of the Baltimore City Department of Vital Statistics for his invaluable assistance with regard to securing basic data concerning the ecology and demography of Baltimore and for providing essential maps ; to James P. Hepbron, Director of the Baltimore Criminal Justice Commission, and to representatives of the Baltimore Juvenile Court for access to the juvenile delinquency records; to my brother Nathan Lander for his encouragement and help in the preparation of this study; to Ian C. Ross for assistance in setting up the data for I B M analyses ; and to Professors Theodore Abel, Isidor Chein, Otto Klineberg, Paul Lazarsfeld, Jeremiah T. Shalloo, Rosalind Tough, and Helen Walker who read all or portions of the manuscript in its various stages and offered invaluable suggestions. To my wife, whose patience and encouragement made possible the completion of this study, I am deeply indebted. B. L.

CONTENTS F O R E W O R D , BY R . M . M A C I V E R

VII

CHAPTER I.

INTRODUCTION

CHAPTER I I .

V A R I A B L E S OF T H E P R E S E N T S T U D Y

11

CHAPTER I I I .

ANALYSIS RATES

20

CHAPTER I V .

1

OF D I F F E R E N T I A L

DELINQUENCY

M U L T I P L E AND P A R T I A L CORRELATION ANALYSIS

44

CHAPTER V .

FACTOR A N A L Y S I S

51

CHAPTER V I .

F U R T H E R CORRELATIONAL A N A L Y S I S

61

CHAPTER V I I .

CONCLUSION

77

APPENDIX A .

T H E PEOPLE AND TODAY

APPENDIX B.

OF

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

BALTIMORE — VARIABLES

YESTERDAY

AND

HOUSING

IN BALTIMORE APPENDIX C.

APPENDIX D .

BIBLIOGRAPHY INDEX

THE NEGRO BALTIMORE

91

96 AND

THE

FOREIGN-BORN

IN

M A P S OF B A L T I M O R E S H O W I N G D I S T R I B U T I O N O F V A R I A B L E S BY C E N S U S T R A C T S

112

123 137

TABLES I.

Number of Delinquents, Percent of Total by Race, by One Mile Zones, Both Sexes, Aged 6-17, Baltimore: 1939-1942 II. Number of Delinquents, Population, Delinquency Rate for Both Races, Sexes, Aged 6-17, by One Mile Zones, Baltimore: 1939-1942 III. Number of Delinquents, Population, Delinquency Rate for Specified Population Groups, Both Sexes, Aged 6-17, by One Mile Zones, Baltimore: 1939-1942 IV. Mean Rates of Delinquency for Census Tracts Groups according to Percentage Increase or Decrease of Population, Baltimore: 1939-1942 V. Zero Order Correlations between the Juvenile Delinquency Rate and Specified Variables, Baltimore: 19391942 VI. Number and Rate of Negro Juvenile Delinquency for Areas Grouped by Percentage of Negroes, Baltimore: 1939-1942 V I I . Number and Rate of White Juvenile Delinquency for Areas Grouped by Percentage of Negroes, Baltimore: 1939-1942 V I I I . Correlations of Derived Variables with Original Variables and with One Another IX. Partial Correlation between the Juvenile Delinquency Rate and Each of the Specified Variables When All Other Variables Are Held Constant and Their Influence Eliminated X. Zero Order Correlation between the Juvenile Delinquency Rate and Certain Other Specified Variables XI. Linear and Curvilinear Beta Coefficients between Juvenile Delinquency and Each Specified Variable When the Other Variables Specified Are Held Constant and Their Influence Eliminated

22

24

25

28

30

34

34 45

46 46

48

TABLES

X I I . Factor Analysis of the Variables X I I I . Delinquency Rate Expectancy XIV. Net Regression Coefficients to Predict Delinquency from Selected Variables Appendix Table I. White Population Stocks and Percentage of Specified Stocks to Total White Population, Baltimore: 1910 Appendix Table II. Median Years of School Completed by Race, Sex, and Nativity, Baltimore: 1940 Appendix Table III. Median Years of School Completed for Cities of 500,000 Inhabitants or More: 1940 Appendix Table IV. Median Years of School Completed by Race, Sex, and Nativity for the United States, Urban and Rural—Farm Areas: 1940 Appendix Table V. Correlation between Median Years of School Completed by Persons 25 Years Old and Over and Certain Other Specified Socio-economic Variables, Baltimore: 1939-1942 Appendix Table VI. Contract of Estimated Monthly Rent for All Dwelling Units, with Median Rent by Tenure, for Cities of 500,000 Inhabitants or More: 1940 Appendix Table VII. Frequency Distribution of Monthly Contract Rent of Standard and Substandard Dwelling Units and Median Monthly Rent, Baltimore: 1941 Appendix Table VIII. Percentage Distribution of Single Families without Lodgers, Classified according to Income and Percentage of Income Spent for Rent, including Cost of Utilities Appendix Table IX. Correlation between Median Monthly Rent and Certain Other Specified Socio-economic Variables, Baltimore: 1940 Appendix Table X. Median Age of Dwellings in the United States and Cities of 500,000 or More Population: 1940 Appendix Table XI. Percentage of Dwelling Units Owneroccupied for Cities of 500,000 Inhabitants or More: 1940 Appendix Table XII. Correlation between Percentage of Dwelling Units Owner-occupied and Certain Other Specified Socio-economic Variables, Baltimore: 1940

xiii S3 59 62

95 97 98

98

100

101

102

103

104 105

106

107

XIV

TABLES

Appendix Table X I I I . Percentage of Total Dwelling Units with 1.51 or More Persons per Room for Cities of 500,000 Inhabitants or More: 1940 Appendix Table XIV. Correlation between Percentage of Dwelling Units Overcrowded (with 1.51 or More Persons per Room) and Certain Other Specified Socioeconomic Variables, Baltimore: 1940 Appendix Table XV. Correlation between P e r c e n t a g e of Overcrowding and Certain Other Specified Socio-economic Variables of the Negro Population Census Tracts with 250 or More Negro Population Appendix Table XVI. State of Repairs and Plumbing Equipment in Cities with 500,000 Inhabitants or More: 1940 Appendix Table X V I I . Correlation between S u b s t a n d a r d Housing and Certain Other Specified Socio-economic Variables Appendix Table X V I I I . Size and Percentage of Non-white Population for Cities of 500,000 Inhabitants or More: 1940 Appendix Table X I X . Number of Non-whites by Wards, Baltimore: 1900-1940 Appendix Table XX. Distribution of Negro Population Percentages by Census Tracts in Baltimore: 1940 Appendix Table XXI. Percentages White and Negro Families by Annual Wage or Salary Income, Baltimore : 1940 Appendix Table X X I I . Correlation between P e r c e n t a g e Non-white and Certain Other Specified Socio-economic Variables, Baltimore: 1940 Appendix Table X X I I I . P e r c e n t of W h i t e Population Foreign-born for Cities of 500,000 Inhabitants or More: 1940 Appendix Table X X I V . Number and Percentage of Nativeborn and Foreign-born White Population, Baltimore: 1900-1940 Appendix Table X X V : Number of Foreign-born Whites by

108

108

109 110

110

112 114 115 115

116

117

117

Wards, Baltimore: 1900-1940 118 Appendix Table X X V I . Percentage of Foreign-born of Total Population by Wards, Baltimore: 1900-1940 119

TABLES

XV

Appendix Table X X V I I . Major Foreign-born Element in Population, Baltimore: 1910-1940 120 Appendix Table X X V I I I : Correlation between Percentage Foreign-born and Certain Other Specified Socio-economic Variables, Baltimore: 1940 121

MAPS FOLLOWING PAGE

122

I. II.

Juvenile Delinquency, 1939-1942 Deviation of Observed from Predicted Delinquency Rate according to Census Tracts, 1939-1942 III. Percentage Change in Population acording to Wards, 19001940 IV. Population Change-Percent according to Census Tracts, 1939-1940 V. Education of Adult Population according to Census Tracts —1940 Census VI. Median Monthly Rent for Each Census Tract—1940 Census VII. Percentage of Dwelling Units Built Prior to 1900 in Each Census Tract—1940 Census V I I I . Owner-occupied Dwelling Units according to Census Tracts —1940 Census IX. Room Density—Percentage of Occupied Dwelling Units in Each Census Tract with 1.51 Persons or More per Room, 1940 Census X. Dwelling Units in Need of Major Repairs, 1940 Census XI. Outside or No Toilet Facilities—Distribution according to Census Tracts—1940 Census XII. Negro Population, 1940 Census X I I I . Foreign Born, 1940 Census

GRAPHS I.

Plot of Variables in Relation to Centroid Factors (Variables Designated by Number as in Table X I I ) 54 II. Relation between Delinquency and Percentage Non-white after Effects of Other Variables Have Been Eliminated 63 III. Relation between Delinquency and Home Ownership after Effects of Other Variables Have Been Eliminated 67

C H A P T E R

I

INTRODUCTION P R O B L E M S A N D P U R P O S E OF

STUDY

JUVENILE delinquency has f o r some time past been a subject c r e a t i n g m u c h social concern a n d s t i m u l a t i n g m a n y investigators to probe into its causes. A

f a v o r i t e line of investigation

has been that of a n a l y z i n g the rates of delinquency by g e o g r a p h i c areas, the best k n o w n e x a m p l e s b e i n g the ecological studies of C l i f f o r d S h a w 1 in C h i c a g o and the additional researches of his associates in other A m e r i c a n u r b a n communities. these studies the s t a r t i n g point of our present We

We

make

investigation.

are particularly concerned w i t h the inadequacies of the

statistical m e t h o d employed. L i n e a r z e r o o r d e r correlations are the p r i m a r y tools utilized

in these studies.

Only

statistical

in S h a w ' s most

recent

v o l u m e are h i g h e r o r d e r correlational analyses employed in a limited fashion. It seems desirable to apply these and other tools of statistical analysis, m o r e refined than the technique of z e r o - o r d e r linear correlation, in a m o r e systematic a n d c o m prehensive m a n n e r than h a s p r e v i o u s l y been done in an endeavor to a r r i v e at perhaps m o r e authentic conclusions c o n c e r n i n g the relationship

of

juvenile

delinquency

to v a r i o u s

sociological

variables. T h i s , in brief, is the p u r p o s e of the present study. Specifically, this study a n a l y z e s the relation in

Baltimore

between the social a n d economic data f o r centus tracts, g i v e n in the 1 9 4 0 U n i t e d S t a t e s C e n s u s , a n d the j u v e n i l e delinquency rates for 1 9 3 9 to 1 9 4 2 inclusive. I t s purpose is t o contribute t o an u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the differential j u v e n i l e

delinquency

rates b y census tracts, and to aid in the prediction and control of

juvenile

delinquency.

It

seeks

to

clarify

the

following

problems: 1. T o w h a t e x t e n t d o the rates of j u v e n i l e delinquency v a r y 1 Clifford R. Shaw and Henry D. McKay, Juvenile Delinquency and Urban Areas, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1942.

2

INTRODUCTION

a m o n g the different census tracts that comprise the city of Baltimore ? 2. D o e s the geographical

(spatial)

distribution of

delin-

quency in Baltimore confirm the Burgess Concentric Zone and Gradient H y p o t h e s e s ? 3. A r e the highest delinquency rates found in or adjoining to the city center, industrial a n d / o r commercial-use zones and districts of declining populations? 4. T o what extent is the geographical location, per se, of an area vitally related to the understanding a n d / o r prediction of the differential delinquency rate? 5. W h a t are the correlations between the following social and economic indices by census tracts and the corresponding juvenile

delinquency

substandard

housing,

rates:

education,

home-ownership

rent,

overcrowding,

and population

com-

position? 6. W h a t is the relation between the juvenile

delinquency

rate and each of the socio-economic variables listed above when the influence of the intercorrelations among the other variables is eliminated? 7. W h a t

is the relative contribution of each

independent

variable in predicting the juvenile delinquency rate? 8. W h a t percentage of the total variance of the

juvenile

delinquency rate can be accounted for by its relation to the j o i n t operation of the social and economic indices considered? 9. T o w h a t extent can the predicting equation be simplified b y the selection of one or t w o variables which m a y predict the juvenile delinquency rate almost as well as the more extensive number of variables? 10. H o w

closely do the predicted values of the

juvenile

delinquency rate agree w i t h the observed values ? 11. M a y sidered

all the variables

manifestations

of

including delinquency

some general

basic

be

factor?

conHow

many "fundamental" or " u n d e r l y i n g " variables must be postulated to account for the intercorrelations a m o n g the predicting variables? Is there a meaningful w a y of defining one or t w o

I N'TRODUCTION

3

such fundamental variables which will simplify and order both interrelations between the predicting variables and their relations with the juvenile delinquency rate. 12. T o what extent can the statistical measures and their results help in understanding the differential juvenile delinquency rate ? Before we proceed to investigate the various questions raised above a brief review of prior approaches to the subject may be helpful. HISTORICAL

REVIEW

OF T H E

PROBLEM

During the past century a series of studies have been published which described the wide variations in the incidence of crime and juvenile delinquency among different localities, towns and provinces in France, England, Italy and Germany. A s early as 1829, Guerry and Balli made use of shaded maps to represent varying crime rates. In 1833 Guerry reported, in his Essai stir la statistique morale de la France, large variations among the 86 departments of France in the rates of crime against the person ranging from 1 out of 2,199 inhabitants in Corsica to 1 out of 37,014 in Creuse. Guerry attempted to account for the variation in crime rates in terms of differences in social condition and in legislation. Mayhew reported in 1838 that crime predominated in large towns and that the proportion of criminals was five times greater in certain areas of England than in others. In 1850 he correlated the crime rates of various counties of England and Wales with the poverty and density of their populations. H e came to the conclusion that these variables were not the causes of crime. In 1925 Cyril Burt, on the basis of his study of the variations of the delinquency rate among the boroughs of London, demonstrated a close association between delinquency and such factors as population density and poverty. Although Lombroso is most famous for his theory of the relation between criminality and physical or anatomical characteristics, he also recognized and reported that the incidence

4

INTRODUCTION

of certain types of crime varied widely a m o n g different localities. A s c h a f f e n b u r g presented similar data regarding variation of crime rates for A u s t r i a and Germany. D u r i n g the last 25 years A m e r i c a n sociologists have contributed a great many studies of the spatial distribution of delinquency in A m e r i c a n urban communities and of the relationships of varied social, cultural and economic variables to the differential delinquency rate. T h e following is only a partial citation of these studies. Thrasher, in 1927, published The

Gang,

a study of

1313

C h i c a g o gangs. H e suggested that many g a n g s are the training schools for criminals and that the "interstitial a r e a " between the L o o p and the residential districts, f r i n g i n g the central business and industrial sections are the primary centers of delinquency and g a n g activity. In Detroit, C a r r correlated the percentage of substandard housing with the rate of juvenile delinquency

and

found a correlation

coefficient of

.95,

an

extremely high degree of correspondence, between delinquency and poor housing. Sullenger found a close relationship between delinquency

and

population

density.

In

New

York

City,

Shulman found that the incidence of delinquency w a s highest in the blocks of bad housing and in commercial districts. C l i f f o r d S h a w and his associates are responsible for the most systematic researches on the description and understanding of the spatial distribution of juvenile delinquency. In a series of monographs

they

have

made

a major

contribution

to

the

sociological study of delinquency. These studies were stimulated by and prepared within the general f r a m e w o r k of the ecological theory as formulated by Professors E. W .

Burgess

and Robert E . Park. S h a w suggests that the understanding of the wide variations in

delinquency

that

exist

in urban areas

may

be

secured

through a study of the processes of city g r o w t h . H e notes that " P r o f e s s o r Robert E . P a r k and others have pointed out the general character of these processes, noting that every A m e r ican city of the same class tends to reproduce in the course of

INTRODUCTION

5

its expansion all the different types of areas and that these tend to exhibit f r o m city to city, very similar cultural areas."

characteristics, 2

physical,

social,

leading to their designation as

and

natural

( E m p h a s i s added.)

R e f e r r i n g to the ecological contributions of Professors Robert E . P a r k and E . W . Burgess, S h a w states that, "this volume is based on the assumption that the best basis for an understanding of the development of differences a m o n g urban areas m a y be gained through study of the processes of city g r o w t h . A r e a s acquire high delinquency rates neither by chance nor by design but rather, it is assumed, as an end-product American

of processes

in

city life over which, as yet, man has been able to

exercise little control."

3

( E m p h a s i s added.)

A s evidence of the differentiation resulting from city g r o w t h and its relation to the incidence of delinquency, S h a w presents the geographical distribution and the correlations between rates of delinquency and indices of ( i ) physical status ( 2 ) economic status ( 3 ) population composition. T h e percentage increase or decrease in population b y square mile areas, the distribution of buildings condemned for demolition or repair, the location of m a j o r industrial and commercial developments are presented as aspects of the physical

differen-

tiation within the city. A c c o r d i n g to S h a w , the decrease in population and the frequency of dilapidated or unoccupied buildings indicate that certain areas are being abandoned for residential purposes and are to be taken over for industrial or commercial use.

In

C h i c a g o , the areas of decreasing population almost completely surround the central business district. Beyond this zone there is a continuing association between the distance f r o m the city industrial and commercial center and the percentages of population decrease or increase and finally at the city periphery the population increase is v e r y great. 2 Robert E. Park, Ernest W . Burgess and Roderick D. McKenzie, The City, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1925, p. 18. 3 Clifford R. S h a w and H e n r y D. M c K a y , Juvenile Delinquency and Urban Areas, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1942, pp. 17-18.

6

INTRODUCTION

T h e highest rates of delinquency were found in the areas where the decrease in population is most rapid, and decreasi n g rates of delinquency were found in areas of increasing population. W h e n the rates of delinquency in the C h i c a g o 1 9 1 7 - 1 9 2 3 and 1 9 2 7 - 1 9 3 3 juvenile court series were correlated with the increase or decrease in population from 1 9 1 0 to 1920 and 1920 to 1930, the respective correlation ratios were found to be .69 and .52. Quantitative

measures

were

not

available

for

the

other

indices of physical status, but S h a w states that inspection of the distribution maps s h o w s clearly that the highest rates of delinquency are most

frequently

found

in, or adjacent

to,

areas of heavy industry and commerce. T h e s e same neighborhoods also have the largest number of condemned buildings. T h e percentage of families on relief, median rentals, frequency of home ownership were utilized as measures of the economic status of an area. In C h i c a g o , the data indicated a close correspondence between the delinquency rates and the economic characteristics of the areas. T h e analysis of the population composition of C h i c a g o neighborhoods with a high delinquency rate indicated that they were characterized by a concentration of foreign born and Negroes. " I n the present social and economic system, it is the N e g r o e s and the foreign born w h o are least prepared f o r the competitive struggle and w h o are forced to live in the worst slum areas and w h o are least able to organize against the effects of such living."

4

Associated with these differences a m o n g areas in terms of physical, economic, and population characteristics are

more

subtle differences in values, attitudes and traditions w h i c h are reflected in marked variations in child behavior and in the delinquency rate. " I n the areas of low rates of delinquents there is more or less uniformity, consistency and universality of conventional values and attitudes with respect to child care, c o n f o r m 4 Ibid., p. 149.

INTRODUCTION

7

ity to law, and related matters; whereas in the high-rate areas systems of competing and conflicting moral values have developed." 5 Children living in high delinquency areas are exposed to contradictory standards and forms of behavior. The presence of a large number of adult criminals also means that many children are in contact with criminal behavior and organized crime. They also more readily become familiar with the location of illegal institutions and the procedures and contacts with the corrupt officials which make possible criminal activity. Moreover, the consistent concentration of delinquency in specific areas in Chicago over a period of decades irrespective of the nationality or racial group residing in these districts gives plausibility to the existence of a coherent system of values supporting delinquency and to the transmission of this tradition from the earliest history of the neighborhood through successive generations of boys residing in these areas in much the same way that language and other social forms are transmitted. In this magnum opus, Juvenile Delinquency and Urban Areas, Shaw and his associates studied the ratio of delinquency in relation to the differential characteristics of local communities in twenty American cities. The following are some of their major conclusions: 1. Juvenile delinquency follows the pattern of the physical and social organization of the American city. "The particular distribution of poverty and wealth and social and national groups," the wide differences in standards and cultural values and delinquency rates among urban areas are an end-product of processes of city growth, and the effects of changes in land-use as industry and commerce "invade" residential districts. 2. "While maps and statistical data are useful in locating different types of areas, in differentiating the areas where the rates are high from the areas where the rates are low, and in 5 Ibid., p. 164.

8

INTRODUCTION

p r e d i c t i n g or f o r e c a s t i n g expected rates, they d o not furnish a n explanation of delinquent conduct. T h i s explanation, it is assumed, must be s o u g h t , in the first place, in the field of the m o r e subtle h u m a n relationships and social values w h i c h c o m prise the social w o r l d of the child in the family and c o m m u n i t y . T h e s e m o r e distinctively h u m a n situations w h i c h seem to be directly related t o delinquent conduct, are, in turn, products of l a r g e r economic and social processes characterizing the h i s t o r y and

growth

comprise it."

of

the

city

and

the

local

communities

which

6

3. In C h i c a g o , the delinquency areas of 1930 w e r e generally the same as those of 1 9 0 0 even t h o u g h the population composition m a y h a v e completely c h a n g e d d u r i n g the intervening years. S h a w a n d M c K a y f o u n d a similar pattern of distribution in m a n y other A m e r i c a n cities. 4. T h e rates of delinquency s h o w similar v a r i a t i o n s a m o n g the local c o m m u n i t i e s

in different types of A m e r i c a n

cities.

T h e area v a r i a t i o n s in the rates of delinquency also correspond to demonstrable d i f f e r e n c e s in the physical, economic and population characteristics of local communities in different t y p e s of cities. 5. T h e distribution of delinquency and other socio-economic d a t a in d i f f e r e n t types of A m e r i c a n cities confirms the B u r g e s s C o n c e n t r i c Z o n e and G r a d i e n t hypotheses. T h e m a i n trend in city growth

is e x p a n s i o n f r o m the center t o the

periphery.

P h y s i c a l deterioration of residences are therefore h i g h e s t

in

the central zone and l o w e s t in the city outskirts. O t h e r indices of economic deprivation,

social d i s o r g a n i z a t i o n and

juvenile

delinquency s h o w similar variations. F o r the m a j o r i t y of the cities studied, concentric zones w e r e arbitrarily set up by m a r k i n g off u n i f o r m distances of f r o m one to t w o miles. T h e results w e r e almost identical in e v e r y city. T h e rates based on m e a s u r e s of delinquency, economic deprivation and social

disorganiza-

tion declined r e g u l a r l y w i t h progression f r o m the i n n e r m o s t t o the outermost zone. 6 Ibid., p. 14.

INTRODUCTION

9

7

A s Quinn and others have noted, implied in the Ecological Theory is the identification of the concentric zones with "natural areas" enclosing populations with similar social and economic characteristics. Also implied is the operation of subsocial processes "over which as yet man has been able to exercise little control," which segregate and differentiate areas within the city with special physical, economic and population characteristics and accompanying cultural value patterns. 6. In the introduction to Juvenile Delinquency and. Urban Areas, Burgess states that, "Juvenile delinquency is shown to be highly correlated with a number of presumably separate factors, including ( i ) population change, ( 2 ) bad housing, ( 3 ) poverty, (4) foreign-born and Negroes, ( 5 ) tuberculosis, ( 6 ) adult crime, and ( 7 ) mental disorders. "The correlation of juvenile delinquency is so high with each of these that if any one were considered separately from the others it might be deemed the chief factor in juvenile delinquency. Since, however, juvenile delinquency is highly correlated with each of them, than all of them must be more or less intercorrelated. Therefore, all these factors, including juvenile delinquency may be considered manifestations of some general basic factor. The common element is social disorganization or the lack of organized community effort to deal with these conditions . . . juvenile delinquency as shown in this study follows the pattern of the physical and social structure of the city being concentrated in areas of physical deterioration and neighborhood disorganization." 8 Burgess' statement implies that social disorganization is the general basic causal factor of which juvenile delinquency and the other variables including bad housing, poverty, percentage of foreign-born and Negroes, and population change may be considered manifestations or dependent variables. The possible relationship between social disorganization and delinquency 7 James A. Quinn, Human Ecology, New York, Prentice-Hall, 1950, pp. 40S-6. 8 Clifford R. Shaw and Henry D. McKay, op. cit., p. xi.

IO

INTRODUCTION

seems clear enough. T h e way in which poverty, the concentration of foreign-born and Negroes also become manifestations or resultants of social disorganization is not equally clear unless one views the relationship in the light of the Ecological assumption of sub-social processes inherent in the process of city growth which act selectively to segregate the poor, the foreignborn and Negro groups in areas of social disorganization. H o w much this statement means is dubious in view of the fact that social disorganization itself has to be defined as a complex of a group of factors in which juvenile delinquency, crime, broken homes, prostitution, truancy, etc. and other sociopathological factors are included. It is therefore circular reasoning to make a loosely defined whole the explanation of one of its own components. W e should remark in this connection that the phrase social disorganization has no specific connotation and is always identified by such facts as those we have mentioned.

C H A P T E R

II

VARIABLES OF THE PRESENT STUDY T H E socio-economic

variables utilized in the project

are

derived from data provided by the United States Census P o p u lation and H o u s i n g Series of 1940. T h e specific variables considered are listed and defined in the following section. T h e relevant juvenile delinquency data were abstracted f r o m the official records of the Baltimore Juvenile Court. I n f o r m a tion concerning each case w a s put on index cards. T h e addresses on these cards were then checked in the Census T r a c t I n d e x B o o k , and the appropriate census tract listings were added. T h e cards were then sorted by census tracts. T h e y were also examined for duplications resulting from delinquency recidivism. Each individual w a s tabulated only once, in the computation of an area rate, though he m a y have been brought t o court on more than one delinquency petition during the four y e a r period of our study. T h e following variables were selected for more

intensive

analysis f r o m those on which data were available on a census tract basis: 1. T h e median years of school completed by all persons of 25 years of age or over. 2. T h e contract or estimated median monthly rent. 3. T h e percentage of persons living in homes where there are 1.51 or more persons per room. 4. Substandard housing. ( T h e percentage of homes needing m a j o r repairs a n d / o r h a v i n g no private bath.) 5. T h e population composition.

( T h e percentage of

non-

whites and the percentage of foreign-born.) These variables were chosen because previous investigations point to their pertinence with regard to the study of the differential juvenile delinquency rate. Theoretically, they are not

12

VARIABLES

OF

PRESENT

STUDY

necessarily the best measures of the socio-economic factors or the best predictors of the incidence of juvenile delinquency, but they appeared to be the best of those available. 1 D E F I N I T I O N OF T H E

VARIABLES

The median years of school completed by all persons oj 25 years oj age or over. The 1940 Census included a question on the last full grade that the person had completed in the regular school system—public, private or parochial school; college or university. The tabulation of last grade or year of school completed for census tracts is restricted to persons 25 years old and over, practically all of whom have completed their formal education. In the computation of median years of school completed, the first year of high school is uniformly represented by 9 (ninth year), although there are some areas with only 7 years of elementary school. The contract or estimated monthly rent. The median monthly rent or rental value of all dwelling units in each census tract is computed from the combined distribution of the contract monthly rent of tenant-occupied dwelling units and the estimated monthly rent of owner-occupied dwelling units. The enumerator was instructed to report the monthly contract rent for each tenant occupied, non-farm dwelling unit; or, if no rent was paid, the estimated monthly rental value, based on rents for similar dwelling units in the neighborhood. The percentage oj persons living in homes where there are 1.5/ or more persons per room. A dwelling unit with 1 . 5 1 or more persons per room is used by the Federal Census Bureau as an indication of overcrowding. The number of persons per room, used as an index of crowding, is obtained by dividing the number of persons in the household by the number of rooms in the dwelling unit. Substandard housing. (The percentage oj homes needing 1 T h e definitions of all variables, other than juvenile delinquency, are based on those used in the Population and Housing Publications of the United States Census Bureau for 1940.

VARIABLES

major

repairs and/or

OF

PRESENT

having

no private

STUDY

13

bath.) Instructions to

enumerators specified that dwelling units were to be classified as "needing m a j o r repairs" when repairs were needed on such parts of the structure as floors, roof, plaster, walls or foundat i o n s — t h e continued neglect of which would impair the soundness of the structure and create a hazard to its safety as a place of residence. The percentage

of non-whites

born in each census

and the percentage

of

foreign-

tract. T w o m a j o r race classifications are

distinguished in our study, n a m e l y : white, and non-white. In our study, the terms non-white and N e g r o are used synonymously since in 1940 there were only 552 non-whites of races other than N e g r o . W i t h the exceptions of T r a c t s 4-1 and 22-1, in n o tract were there more than 15 non-whites other than N e g r o e s . P e r s o n s of M e x i c a n birth or ancestry w h o were not definitely Indian or of another non-white race, were returned as w h i t e in 1940. T h e white population is divided into t w o nativity g r o u p s : native and foreign-born. A person born in the U n i t e d States or in any of its territories or possessions is counted as native. T h e country of birth classification is based on political boundaries as of January 1, 1937. The

juvenile

delinquency

rate.

Several different types of

information are available f r o m which one can construct indices of the juvenile delinquency r a t e : a. T h e unofficial Juvenile Court hearings, i.e., complaints against minors which were handled by the court

un-

officially and m a n y of which were not registered as cases in the official Juvenile Court docket. b. T h e official cases as registered in the court docket, i.e., the alleged delinquents brought before the Juvenile C o u r t on delinquency petitions. c. T h e records of delinquents placed on probation. d. T h e records of delinquents sent to correctional institutions. In the selection of an index of juvenile delinquency, w e r e guided by the following methodological principle:

we

14

VARIABLES

OF P R E S E N T

STUDY

T h e value of a crime rate for index purposes decreases as the distance from the crime itself in terms of procedure increases. 2 T h a t is, the police statistics are more reliable as indices of criminal activity than court statistics and court statistics are more reliable than prison statistics. T h e point involved is that the further removed the index is f r o m the crime the greater is the possible number of procedures that m a y affect the index. A rate derived f r o m the court statistics of unofficial court hearings may thus be a somewhat better index of juvenile delinquency than one based on official hearings. F o r practical reasons w e could not use this index. Fortunately, there were v e r y f e w cases of unofficial court hearings. W e , therefore, based our index on the court hearing records: This is the most inclusive index, the one used by Shaw and others in various studies of juvenile delinquency. It is not subject to the vagaries of Judges' opinions as are the indices based on disposition of the offenders, nor is it influenced by average length of sentence. Its major inadequacy is that it cannot include a reflection of the amount of recognized delinquency which is handled outside the courts by police or private agencies. However, the areas with high delinquency rates are also areas with wealth of institutions to handle cases outside the court. Our rates appear conservative estimates of relative incidences of delinquency. 3 T h e juvenile delinquency rate * for each census tract represents the juvenile delinquent percentage of the total tract population of the ages f r o m 6 to 17 inclusive. T h e juvenile delinquency rates which are used as our index of juvenile delinquency were derived by a v e r a g i n g the court hearings for the years 1939, 1940, 1941 and 1942. 2 Thorsten Sellin, " T h e Basis of a Crime Index," Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, X X I I , September, 1931, pp. 335-355. 3 Paul Wiers, Economic Factors in Michigan Delinquency, N e w Y o r k , Columbia University Press, 1944, p. 19. 4 T h e term delinquent as used in this study refers to a boy or girl 6-17 w h o is brought before the Baltimore Juvenile Court on an official delinquency petition. It refers then to an " alleged juvenile delinquent."

VARIABLES

OF P R E S E N T

STUDY

IS

While the court hearings provide the original source of our delinquency data, the rates used are not based directly on the actual number of court cases. T h e names of many children appeared in the court hearing records, as several cases, because they were involved in more than one delinquency during the period under study. In computing the index, each individual was counted only once, regardless of any recidivism during the 4 year period. The juvenile delinquency rate for each tract was then derived from the number of children brought before the Juvenile Court in proportion to the total juvenile population of that area. THE

R E L I A B I L I T Y OF T H E J U V E N I L E D E L I N Q U E N C Y As

AN

INDEX

OF J U V E N I L E

RATE

DELINQUENCY

W e now come to the matter of the reliability of the juvenile delinquency rate as an index of juvenile delinquency. Certainly not all juvenile delinquency can be uncovered (and not all that is detected is reported) and, therefore, is not recorded by lawenforcement agencies. Of fundamental interest here is the variation among rates for different districts, rather than the magnitude of the rate for particular areas of the city. The problem, then, is how well the differential juvenile delinquency rate represents the differential volume of juvenile delinquency among areas. D o the census tract rates of court hearings vary proportionately with the relative amount of delinquency ? Recorded criminality presumably maintains a constant proportionate relationship to the unrecorded criminality. Without such an assumption, criminal statistics cannot be used to measure changes in the total criminality, i.e., unrecorded plus recorded crimes.5 Sophia Robison claims that juvenile delinquency researches are inadequate because: i. W e cannot measure the relationship between the amount of apprehended and unapprehended delinquency. 5 Sellin, op. cit., pp. 335-356.

l6

VARIABLES

OF

PRESENT

STUDY

2. Community factors and group attitudes crucially affect and influence the official registration of delinquent behavior. 6 Samuel Stouffer, in his review of Sophia Robison's monograph, Can Delinquency Be Measured?, responds that: The issue may be simply drawn. If statistics from court records or any other sources of data are invoked to portray completely the 'total volume' of delinquency in a city in absolute numbers, the effort is futile . . . the total volume of delinquency cannot be measured for the obvious reason that no written records can include all cases of youthful infractions of designated regulations. On the other hand, an index which is useless as an absolute measure may be useful as a relative measure in comparing one area with another or one social and demographic group with another. A careful study of the types of discrepancies revealed especially in the data tabulation by such health areas . . . indicates that the Childrens Court seems to pick out certain areas having much more delinquency than other areas and that these "problem areas" keep the same relative position at the top after the data from other official agencies and from unofficial agencies are included.7 It was indicated earlier that delinquency rates based on complaints against minors heard unofficially by the court may be considered to be a better index of juvenile delinquency than a rate that was derived from official court statistics. It is also assumed that rates based on property crime data may be a more sensitive index of the differential area crime pattern than a composite rate based on all types of complaints. Both of these rates (unofficial hearings and property crime data) are also less likely to reflect the mediating influences of the cultural patterns of the community as they may affect the varying extent with which delinquency behavior is either reported to the police or by the police to the juvenile court. Correlation Be Measured? The W e l f a r e 6 Sophia M. Robison, Can Delinquency Council of N e w York, N e w York, Columbia University Press, 1936. 7 American Journal of Sociology, Sept. 1936, pp. 586-90.

VARIABLES

OF

PRESENT

STUDY

17

coefficients were, therefore, computed between our delinquency index derived f r o m all official delinquency petitions and t w o series of rates based on property crime and unofficial court case data in order to ascertain the extent to which the

findings

of our study m a y be affected by the use of the composite official delinquency index rather than either of the other indices. The

correlation

r =

coefficients obtained

were r =

+.86

+ . 8 9 between the official composite delinquency

and index

and the property crime and unofficial court case indices. Area

Unit of

History Laidlow

Study

of Census

Tracts.

A b o u t 35 years ago, D r . W a l t e r

became convinced of the need for establishing,

the gathering of data, areas that would remain from

census

to

census.

There

were

several

for

unchanged

difficulties

in

utilizing the census data gathered up to that time. a. T h e area basis for computing data were political subdivisions without any relation to social or economic h o m o g e neity. b. T h e census subdivisions were too large and thus it w a s impossible to calculate rates or study rate changes f o r neighborhoods or small population groups. W i t h increasing recognition of the fact that the political boundaries of cities were for many purposes artificial

and

arbitrary, committees of various types (and representing m a n y cities)

made arrangements

States Bureau

in cooperation with the

United

of Census for laying out census tracts

tabulating census data on this basis. B y

and

1940 census tract

statistics for population and housing were made available for 60 cities. The ideal census tract marked demographic, economic and social homogeneity and distinct geographical boundaries in the form of natural barriers. It avoids, insofar as possible, overlapping important political boundaries and it remains stable from census to census, except as it is subject to consolidation with adjacent census tracts in the older and well settled areas of the city and to futher subdivision in the areas

l8

VARIABLES

OF P R E S E N T

STUDY

of our development and differentiation. Such units tend to become the basic points of reference for the fact collecting, the administration, the planning, and the research in the city.8 The United States Census Bureau states that: In current practice the census tracts are small areas, having a population usually between 3,000 and 6,000, into which a city is subdivided, more or less arbitrarily, for statistical and local administrative purposes. The tracts are permanently established, so that comparisons may be made from year to year and from census to census; they are laid out with a view to approximate uniformity in population and with some regard for uniformity in size; and each is designed to include an area fairly homogeneous in population characteristics. In cities where the ward lines are infrequently changed, the tracts form subdivisions of the wards; in other cities they are laid out without regard to the ward boundaries.9 History of Census Tract in Baltimore. In 1935 the Commissioner of Health called together a committee to plan for the census tract districting of Baltimore. In collaboration with this group, Dr. W. Thurber Fales (Director of the Statistical Section of the Baltimore City Health Department) divided the city wards into subdivisions which made 157 census tracts for the entire city. These had within their respective boundaries fairly homogeneous population and approximately the same number of persons. The mean population of the census tracts is 5,200 and half of the census tracts have a population varying between 4,000 and 6,200. In Baltimore the ward boundaries were retained because, having remained unchanged for many decades, a vast amount of data were available which was especially useful for studies involving time trends. Under the direction of Dr. Fales, much additional supplementary information has been tabulated for census tracts: residential building permits, rooming-house per8 Excerpt from speech delivered by Professor Louis Wirth at Census Tract Conference in 1945. 9 Census Tracts in American Cities, prepared by H. W . Green and L. Truesdell, Bureau of Census publication, July, 1937, p. 2.

VARIABLES

OF

PRESENT

STUDY

19

mits, liquor store and bar permits, records of school census, birth and mortality, tuberculosis and meningitis rates. In our study, the delinquency rates and the census data were computed for 1 5 5 tracts. Baltimore is composed of 1 5 7 tracts. T h e two omitted tracts embrace in their entirety the Maryland Penitentiary, Baltimore City J a i l , and the Baltimore City Hospitals. In order to provide a clearer picture of the setting of the study including various background data, a number of appendices have been added. Appendix A reviews the growth, distribution and composition of Baltimore's population. A p pendix B summarizes the data on the socio-economic variables utilized in the present study. Appendix C summarizes the data on the remaining independent variables of the present study, viz. the distributions of the N e g r o and foreign-born populations in the various census tracts. Appendix D is comprised of maps describing the distribution of the variables by census tracts.

C H A P T E R

III

ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENTIAL DELINQUENCY RATES DELINQUENCY

IN

BALTIMORE

IN the years 1 9 3 9 to 1942, there were 8,464 official hearings in the Juvenile Court, which involved 7 , 1 9 3 individual children. Of these hearings, 4,045 involved property crimes, and 4 , 4 1 9 were concerned with other complaints. F o r the four-year period the mean annual census tract case rate was 1 3 . 4 1 per 1,000 population of the ages of 6 to 1 7 ; the mean annual tract delinquency rate for the unduplicated count of delinquents was 10.6. The corresponding rates, for individuals, calculated separately for the race-sex groups, a r e : white boys, 1 3 . 0 ; white girls, 1 . 8 6 ; N e g r o boys, 4 3 . 8 ; Negro girls, 10.0. On a comparable basis, therefore, the relative rates for white boys as compared to white girls is approximately 7 : 1 ; for Negro boys as compared to N e g r o girls, 4 : 1 ; for N e g r o boys as compared to white boys, 4 : 1 ; and for Negro girls as compared to white girls, 5 : 1 . T h e following data indicate the magnitude of the delinquency problem. During the four year period, approximately 4 0 % of the Negro boys aged 1 4 to 1 5 and 2 6 % of the N e g r o boys aged 1 0 to 1 3 were registered in the Baltimore Juvenile Court on delinquency petitions. Of the white male population group, approximately 1 2 % of the 1 4 - 1 5 age category and 7 % of the 1 0 - 1 3 age group were in court as alleged delinquents. In several census tracts more than 2 9 % of the white boys aged 1 0 to 1 5 became delinquent during the four year period and in one tract approximately 6 0 % of the Negro boys of this age group became delinquent. Of the 6 - 9 population group, 3 % 1 The population figures used in computing all of the rates were taken from the 1940 Census. Since there have probably been population changes during the four years, these rates can only be regarded as approximate.

ANALYSIS

OF D E L I N Q U E N C Y

RATES

21

of the N e g r o males and i % of the white males were allegedly delinquent. These percentages are presented only as an indication of the extent of the delinquency problem rather than as a precise measure or count of juvenile delinquency in Baltimore. O n the one hand, the aforementioned percentages e x a g g e r a t e the actual ratio of the officially registered delinquents to the total juvenile population. A l t h o u g h the population base used for the computation of rates is stationary, the actual count of juvenile population in each age category is much larger than the population base because of the process of population aging. O n the other hand, the delinquency percentages presented in this study understate the actual delinquency incidence. Undoubtedly, in most areas, the m a j o r i t y of children committing delinquent acts are neither apprehended nor brought before the Juvenile

Court.

T h u s , the percentages which are presented above are to be considered only as an indication of the volume of delinquency and the

magnitude

of

the

problem

of

the

officially

registered

delinquents. T h e greatest concentrations of delinquency cases were found in Census T r a c t s 4 - 2 , 5 - 1 and 7 - 4 , with records of 304, 181 and 181 cases respectively. Census T r a c t s 4 - 2 and 5 - 1 a d j o i n the central business district on the west and northeast. T r a c t 7 - 4 is more than a mile distant from the city center. T h e s e tracts are characterized by the presence of a large N e g r o population, o v e r c r o w d i n g and substandard housing conditions. A l though T r a c t s 5 - 1 and 7 - 4 contain, with the exception of T r a c t 4 - 2 , the largest number

of delinquent children, they are not

found a m o n g the highest ranking delinquency rate tracts. T h e r e are 15 areas with a delinquency rate greater than that of T r a c t 7 - 4 and 11 areas with rates greater than that of T r a c t 5 - 1 . A n examination of Table I reveals that the preponderance of white and N e g r o delinquents live within a radius of 3 miles from the city center. W i t h i n this area reside 8 8 % of Baltimore's alleged delinquents. T h e greatest concentration of white and N e g r o delinquents is found in Zone 2. T h e examination of

22

ANALYSIS

OF D E L I N Q U E N C Y T A B L E

NUMBER BY

OF D E L I N Q U E N T S , ONE

MILE

ZONES,

I

PERCENT BOTH

BALTIMORE:

RATES

OF T O T A L

SEXES,

AGED

BY

RACE

6-17

1939-1942

Zone 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

399 1610 843 343 227 188 31

10.96 44.22 23.15 9.42 6.24 5.16 .85

1270 2038 198 11 22 13

35.76 57.38 5.57 .31 .61 .37

1669 3648 1041 354 249 201 31

23.20 50.72 14.47 4.92 3.46 2.80 .43

3,641

100.00

3,552

100.00

7,193

100.00

TOTAL

Percent of Total

Number of N e g r o Delinquents

Number of White Percent Percent and N e g r o of of Total Delinquents T o t a l

Number of White Delinquents

the separate break-downs for Negro and white delinquents suggests a somewhat different pattern of concentration for these two racial groups. Of the white group, 22% of the delinquents reside beyond Zone 3, only 1 % of the Negro delinquents reside in these sections of the city. Within two miles from the city center 92% of the Negro delinquents and 90% of the Negro population live. To what extent do the rates of juvenile delinquency vary among the different census tracts that comprise the city of Baltimore? THE

DIFFERENTIAL DELINQUENCY

RATE

The rates presented in Map I (Appendix D ) represent the juvenile delinquency rates per 100 persons of all races and sexes between the ages of 6 and 17 years in each of the 155 census tracts for the years 1939-1942. The delinquency rate is based on the total unduplicated count of individuals who were officially registered as alleged delinquents during the study period. The mean census tract rate for the four-year period is 4.2 per 100. An examination of the Delinquency Rate Map reveals a wide range in rates—from a high of 20.8 per 100 in Tract 1 7 - 1 to a low of 0.0 in Census Tracts 15-5 and 27-20. In 18

ANALYSIS

OF

DELINQUENCY

RATES

23

tracts, the delinquency rate is as low as 0.5 or less. In 13 areas, the delinquency rate is 10.0 per 100 or higher. T h e highest delinquency rates are found in or near the central business district. Additional high delinquency areas more distant from the city center are located in T r a c t s 12-5, 12-7, 1 9 - 1 , 19-2, 25-5 and 25-7. T h e centers of low rates are located, for the most part, near the city periphery. Delinquency rates computed separately for the white and N e g r o population groups also reveal a very wide range in rates. T h e white delinquency rates range from a low of 0.0 in 15 tracts to a high of 18.7 in Tract 18-2. N e g r o delinquency rates range from a low of 0.0 in T r a c t s 9 - 1 and 20-2 to a high of 2 3 - 5 in Tract 4 - 2 . Delinquency rates were also calculated for each census tract for white and Negro, male and female, population groups for the following age breakdowns: 6 - 9 , 1 0 - 1 3 , I 4 _ I 5 a n d 1 6 - 1 7 . A n examination of these data indicates an even greater variation in tract rates for these sub-groups. In contrast to the complete absence of any white delinquency cases in more than a dozen areas; there are more than 20 tracts in which 2 0 % or more of the white males aged 1 4 - 1 5 were registered on official delinquency petitions. In Census Tracts, 4 - 2 , 1 4 - 2 , and 1 8 - 1 , 5 0 % or more of the white boys aged 1 4 - 1 5 and in T r a c t s 4 - 2 and 1 8 - 1 , 3 5 % or more of the 1 0 - 1 3 white male category were recorded in court as alleged delinquents. T h e wide range in delinquency rates is even more salient a m o n g the N e g r o population groups. Contrasting with the complete absence of N e g r o delinquents in at least two areas, the data indicate that in several areas 7 5 % or more of the N e g r o males aged 1 4 - 1 5 were in court on delinquency petitions during the study period. In T r a c t 1 2 - 5 , as many as 9 5 % of this age grouping were registered in Baltimore's Juvenile Court dockets. The Concentric Delinquency

Zone

Hypothesis

rates were calculated for each of the

seven

zones secured by drawing a series of seven concentric circles

24

ANALYSIS

OF D E L I N Q U E N C Y

RATES

one mile apart with the intersection of Baltimore and Charles Streets, in the heart of the central business district, as the focal point. 2 T A B L E NUUBER

OF

BY

Zone 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

DELINQUENT»,

II

POPULATION, SEXES,

DELINQUENCY

FOR

BOTH

RACES,

AGED

ONE

MILE

ZONES—BALTIMORE:

RATE

6-17 1939-1942

Number of Delinquents

Population 6-17

Delinquency Rate

1669 3648 1041 354 249 201 31

16,427 59,786 38,475 17,629 14,323 9,772 2,089

10.2 6.1 2.7 2.0 1.7 2.1 1.6

7,193

158,501

T h e examination of Table I I reveals a preliminary confirmation of the Burgess' concentric zone hypothesis. T h e highest delinquency rates are found in the innermost zone and in the zones surrounding it. However, the Burgess assumption of a continued and regular decline in the delinquency rate with progression from the innermost to the outermost zone does not find confirmation in Baltimore's zonal delinquency rates. T h e delinquency rate declines precipitously from 10.2 per 1 0 0 in Zone 1 to 6.1 in Zone 2 and 2.7 in Zone 3. Beyond Zone 3 the delinquency rate remains substantially the same for the remaining four zones. A review of Table I I I indicates that the white delinquency rate decreases from 5.2 per 100 in the innermost zone to 4.3 in Zone 2 and 2.4 in Zone 3. Beyond this zone, the delinquency rate remains substantially the same for the other four zones. F o r the N e g r o group, the delinquency rates in Zones 5 and 6 are higher than the rates in Zones 3 and 4. The rates in Zone 5 and 6 are more than twice as large as the delinquency rate in 2 When a census tract was divided by one of the concentric circles, the number of persons and delinquents, aged 6-17, was allocated to each zone corresponding to the proportion of the tract in each zone.

A N A L Y S I S OF D E L I N Q U E N C Y T A B L E NUMBER FOR

OF D E L I N Q U E N T S ,

SPECIFIED BY

POPULATION

ONE

MILE

RATES

III

POPULATION, GROUPS,

DELINQUENCY

BOTH

SEXES,

ZONES—BALTIMORE:

Zone 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

399 1610 843 343 227 188 31

7,718 37,790 35,550 17,327 14,045 9,602 2,089

3,641

124,121

Total

Population 6-17

RATE

AGED

6-17

1939-1942

Negro

White Number of Delinquents

25

Delinquency Rate 5.17 4.26 2.37 1.98 1.62 1.96 1.48

Number of Delinquents

Population 6-17

Delinquency Rate

1270 2038 198 11 22 13

8,709 21,996 2,925 302 278 170

14.58 9.27 6.77 3.64 7.91 7.65

3,552

34,380

Zone 4. T h e small number of Negroes in these areas may however limit the significance of these aberrations from the concentric zone hypothesis. A n inspection of the Delinquency Rate Distribution Map ( M a p I ) indicates that the zonal hypothesis may lead to a considerable over-simplification of the actual pattern of the spatial distribution of delinquency. F o r example, in the innermost zones may be found a range in the delinquency rate from 20.8 per 100 to 1.1—virtually the entire range for the city as a whole. Census Tracts 2 5 - 5 and 25-6, geographically removed 5 miles or more from the city center, are characterized by delinquency rates of 5.7 and 7.3—i.e., more than 7 times the delinquency rates of several tracts located within a one or two mile radius of the city center. A n examination of the map also suggests that each zone contains a wide range of delinquency rates including both districts of high and low delinquency frequencies. T h e preliminary examination of the data indicates that the concentric zone hypothesis over-simplifies the spatial distribution of delinquency in Baltimore and tends to obscure the wide range of rates within each zone. It does not however necessarily preclude the significance or importance of the eco-

26

ANALYSIS

OF

DELINQUENCY

RATES

logical patterning or geographical distance from the city center, per se, as factors in the prediction a n d / o r understanding of the differential delinquency rate. Other data which have direct bearing on this problem will be presented below. Juvenile

Delinquency

Zoned

and Propinquity

to

Industrial-Use

Areas

T h e relationship between or proximity to, industry clarification. A n examination that there is no necessary variables.

delinquency and the presence of, requires additional analysis and of this relationship clearly reveals concomitance between these two

T h e juvenile delinquency rates in several industrial districts are considerably higher than the Baltimore census tract delinquency mean which is 4.2 per hundred for the entire study period. In contrast, some of the city's lowest delinquency rates occur in or near to industrial sections—Tracts 25-2, 25-4, 2 4 - 1 and 24-2, are cases in point. T h e delinquency rate in the latter t w o tracts is 1.1 for the four year study period, despite the fact that more than 5 0 % of this area is zoned and used for industrial purposes. Omitting Tract 4 - 2 which is predominantly a commercial-use and only slightly an industrial-use zone, the mean census tract delinquency rate for 18 areas in which less than 5 0 % of the tract is zoned for industrial-use is 4.8. In the 7 districts in which 5 0 % or more of the tract is industrially zoned, the mean census tract delinquency rate is only 3 . 9 — a lower delinquency rate mean than that of the city at large. Of the 25 tracts which are in part or predominantly zoned for industrial-use, only 2 are found in the 15 highest ranking delinquency areas and only 6 among the areas in the first quartile. It is not directly clear whether the high delinquency rates in some industrial areas are effects of the presence of industry ( a n d / o r the ecological process of change in land-use) or whether they may be accounted for by the socio-economic variables studied in this monograph. A s indicated previously, the presence of a low delinquency rate in an industrial-use zone

ANALYSIS

OF D E L I N Q U E N C Y

RATES

27

does not in itself deny the possible significance of the presence of industry in the explanation of the differential delinquency rate. If an adequate quantitative index were available for this factor, the utilization of the factor analysis and the partial correlation techniques to be described below may provide an answer to these questions. However, the analysis of the distribution of errors in predicting delinquency from the variables analyzed in the regression equation, may help clarify the nature of the association between propinquity to industry per se and the delinquency rate. It is germane to note that the distribution of industry in Baltimore does not conform to Burgess' zonal hypothesis. In Chicago and in other urban communities, studied by Burgess and his associates, the primary industrial areas are located in or near the center of the city. Zone i, in this conceptual scheme, is the central business and industrial district; Zone II, the zone in transition, or slum area, in the throes of change from residence to business and industry; Zone III, the zone of w o r k men's homes; Zone I V , the residential zone; and Zone V , the commuters zone, beyond the city limits. In contrast, in Baltimore only 50% of the districts in which industry is located or which are zoned for industry is found within Zones I and II. Several of Baltimore's most important industrial centers are located in W a r d s 25 and 26. These areas are several miles distant from the city center and are included in Zones 5 and 6. In T r a c t s 2 5 - 5 and 2 5 - 6 more than 8 0 % of the available land is zoned a n d / o r used for industrial purposes. Juvenile

Delinquency

Zoned

and Propinquity

to

Commercial-Use

Areas

T h e mean census tract rate for 12 areas predominantly or in part commercially zoned is 9.0—almost twice the mean for the city at large. One half of these tracts are among Baltimore's 15 ranking delinquency areas. T h e association between a commercial-use zone and the delinquency rate needs further analysis, h o w e v e r ; this will

28

ANALYSIS

OF

DELINQUENCY

RATES

be provided in a later section. T h e need for additional analysis is indicated by the fact that in 4 of these 12 districts, the delinquency rate is much below the city mean. In one tract the rate is close to zero, only .1 for the four year period. Juvenile

Delinquency

and Population

Change

A n examination of M a p I I I (Appendix D ) indicates that since 1900 there has been a marked population decrease in the areas of delinquency concentration. A n examination of M a p I V ( A p p e n d i x D ) dealing with population changes in the years 1930 to 1940, suggests a different pattern of population changes. F r o m 1930 to 1940 there have been no marked population decreases in the ranking delinquency areas. A s a matter of fact, in many of the sections there have been population increases. In Census Tract 1 7 - 5 , third ranking delinquency area, the population has increased 2 0 % during this decade. Generally these have been areas with large concentrations of N e g r o population. T h e correlation coefficient between the delinquency rate and the percentage of population increase (or decrease) is r = — . 1 2 , this coefficient being below the .05 significance level. T h u s , in contrast to the findings of Shaw and his associates in Chicago and other American cities, the relationship between the delinquency rate and the population change of an area is not statistically significant in Baltimore. TABLE MEAN

RATES

ACCORDING

TO

OF

DELINQUENCY

PERCENTAGE

IV

FOR

INCREASE

CENSUS OR

TRACTS

DECREASE

OF

GROUPED POPULATION

BALTIMORE: 1 9 3 9 - 1 9 4 2 P e r c e n t a g e I n c r e a s e or D e c r e a s e of P o p u l a t i o n , 1 9 3 0 1 9 4 0 Decreasing 20-39 0-19 Increasing 0-19 20-39 4 0 and over * Only one census t r a c t .

M e a n R a t e of D e l i n q u e n c y 1939-1942 13.1* 4.5 4.7 4.5 1.3

ANALYSIS

OF D E L I N Q U E N C Y

RATES

2g

Table I V , also, illustrates the findings of the correlational analysis. W i t h the exception of areas with a population increase of 4 0 % or more and the one tract in which the population decrease is more than 2 0 % , there is no concomitance between population change and the delinquency rate. What are the correlations between the social and indices studied by census tracts and the corresponding delinquency rates? Juvenile

Delinquency

and

economic juvenile

Education

T h e correlation coefficient between the juvenile delinquency rate and median years of education is r = — . 5 1 . A n analysis of the scatter diagram suggests that the association between juvenile delinquency and education is not linear. A s the delinquency rate increases from 1 % to 4 % , there is a marked decline in educational level. In areas with delinquency rates higher than 4 % , the decline of educational level is much more gradual per unit change in years of education. A s one moves towards the areas of highest delinquency, there appears what seems to be a surprising increase in formal schooling. H o w e v e r , data which will be presented below indicate that this last mentioned relationship is not statistically significant. A n examination of Table V , also, points to a high degree of association between the educational level of a population group, the rent it pays, and the physical conditions and over-crowding of its homes. 3 Further analysis is, therefore, essential to measure the relationship between schooling and delinquency when the influence of other social and economic factors is eliminated. Juvenile

Delinquency

and Median

Rentals

Juvenile delinquency rates vary inversely with the economic status of a neighborhood, as measured by its median monthly 3 See discussion in Appendices A, B, and C for fuller coverage of the independent variables and their interrelations.

30

ANALYSIS

OF D E L I N Q U E N C Y T A B L E

ZERO

ORDER

CORRELATIONS

AND

SPECIFIED

Education Rent

BETWEEN

THE J U V E N I L E

VARIABLES,

Over crowding

Education + .89 -.71 Rent +.89 -.68 Overcrowding -.71 -.68 Nonwhite -.41 -.34 +.69 Homes Owneroccupied + . 3 9 +.47 -.72 Substandard Housing - . 7 6 -.73 +.86 Foreign born -.12 -.13 -.01 For 1 5 5 observations r = + . 1 5 7 6 a n d r = + . 2 0 6 3 on t h e . 0 1 l e v e l .

RATES

V

Nonwhite

BALTIMORE:

DELINQUENCY

RATE

1939-1942

Homes JuveOwnerSubnile occus t a n d a r d F o r e i g n Delinpied Housing born quency

-.41 -.34

+.39 +.47

-.76 -.73

-.12 -.13

-.51 -.53

+.69

-.72

+.86

-.01

+.73

-.76

+.58

-.32

+.70

-.67

+.12

-.80

+.07

+.69

-.76 +.58

-.67

-.32 +.12 +.07 -.16 is s i g n i f i c a n t on t h e . 0 5 significance level,

rent. T h e zero order correlation obtained between these t w o variables is r =

—.53.

T h e lowest rentals are paid in W a r d s 2 and 3 of the Southeastern Health District, in Census T r a c t 4 - 2 , in W a r d 1, just outside the central business section, in W a r d 22 of southwest Baltimore, just south of the central commercial zone, and in Census Tract 25-6. T a b l e V indicates a high degree of intercorrelation between rentals, education, substandard housing and home ownership. T h e correlation of rentals and non-whites is significant, but not as high as one would expect in view of the

Negroes'

depressed socio-economic position. It is a result of the discrimination against N e g r o e s in housing, which compels them to pay higher rentals than whites for similar housing. A study of the scatter diagram indicates a curvilinear relationship between juvenile delinquency and rent. A s the juvenile

ANALYSIS

OF D E L I N Q U E N C Y

RATES

31

delinquency rate increases beyond 3.5, the per unit decrease in r e n t s — a s associated w i t h a per unit increase in the juvenile delinquency r a t e — i s

gradualized.

In this connection, it is of interest to note that Census T r a c t 3-1, with a median estimated or contract monthly rental of $ 1 1 . 9 6 (the second lowest median rental in the c i t y ) , possesses a much lower rate of juvenile delinquency than one m i g h t predict on the basis of its economic characteristics. O f the homes in this section, 7 5 % are substandard. O n l y 3 of the 155 tracts have a greater percentage of substandard homes. T h e inhabitants of this tract attained a median of only 4.3 years of educat i o n — t h e least educated census tract population in the whole city. O f all occupied units in Baltimore, 9 4 % had r a d i o s ; in Census T r a c t 3 - 1 , only 6 9 . 5 % had t h e m — t h e lowest percentage in the city. T h i s neighborhood has the lowest percentage of homes without central heating, and 6 0 % of its homes are either with outside or no toilet facilities at all; 8 . 1 5 % of its homes are over-crowded (i.e., with more than 1.51 persons per r o o m ) . T h u s , this census tract is a very blighted neighborhood, w i t h indices which mark it as one of Baltimore's most economically depressed sections. Y e t it is not a m o n g the r a n k i n g juvenile delinquency areas. T h e r e are no special agencies operating in this district to lower the official rate artificially. T h i s area is but one of many examples of the complexity of the problem of causation of juvenile delinquency, and illustrates the difficulty of trying to explain the variation of juvenile delinquency rates on the basis of pure economic determinism.

Juvenile Delinquency Among

Negroes

N e g r o e s in Baltimore, as in m a n y other A m e r i c a n cities, contribute a disproportionate amount of juvenile delinquency. D u r i n g the 1 9 3 9 - 1 9 4 2 study period, N e g r o children comprised 4 9 % of Baltimore's delinquents although they constituted only, approximately, 2 0 % of the juvenile group in the general population. T h i s high proportion of N e g r o delinquency is reflected in a high correlation coefficient, r =

+ . 7 0 , expressing the con-

32

ANALYSIS

OF D E L I N Q U E N C Y

RATES

comitance between the delinquency rate and the percentage of Negroes. T h e apparent magnitude of the Negro delinquency problem is even more precisely indicated in the analysis of Negro male delinquency rates for the 10-15 age category. In almost all of the tracts wtih 100 or more Negro boys, aged 10-15, the delinquency rate was 20 per 100 or more. In Tract 12-5, 9 5 % of the 1 4 - 1 5 age group were allegedly delinquent. In Tracts 1 7 - 1 , 4-2, and 12-4, respectively, 8 7 % , 7 5 % and 70% of the 1 4 - 1 5 age group were in court during the study period on official delinquency petitions. Despite the preponderance of Negro delinquency, one must beware of imputing any causal significance to race per se. There is no necessary concomitance between the presence of Negroes and delinquency. In Census Tracts 9 - 1 and 20-2, with populations of 124 and 75 Negro juveniles, there were no recorded cases of delinquency during the study period. The rates of Negro delinquency also vary as widely as do the white rates indicating large differences in behavior patterns that are not a function or effect of race per se. It is also of interest to note that in at least 10% of the districts with substantial Negro juvenile populations, the Negro delinquency rate is lower than the corresponding white rate. In Tracts 13-3 and 18-2, the Negro rate is approximately one half as large as the corresponding white rate. Table V indicates a high correlation between the percentage of Negroes in a census tract and such socio-economic indices as overcrowding, substandard housing, the rate of juvenile delinquency and especially the percentage of homes owneroccupied. The latter correlation is r = — . 7 6 . Further analysis is thus necessary to unravel the extent to which the high correlation between the presence of Negroes and the delinquency rate is a function or consequence of the presence of Negroes as such or a reflection of the fact that in American urban centers Negroes live preponderantly in areas characterized by socio-economic and cultural factors more substantially and

ANALYSIS

OF D E L I N Q U E N C Y

RATES

33

fundamentally associated with the prediction and/or understanding of the differential delinquency rate. A n inspection of the scatter diagram clearly indicates a highly curvilinear relationship between percentage of Negroes and delinquency rates. The proportion of Negroes remains almost constant as the delinquency rate increases from o.o to 5.0. It increases precipitously as the delinquency rate continues to increase from 5.0. Despite the high concomitance between the presence of Negroes and the delinquency rate (r = + . 7 0 ) , a very interesting contrast is provided when an analysis is made of the concomitance between the purely Negro delinquency rate and the percentage of Negroes. In the latter instance, there is an inverse but insignificant relationship. The correlation between these two variables is r = — . 1 9 . The following table illustrates more effectively than a linear correlation coefficient the nature of this relationship. It suggests a positive correlation between the percentage of Negroes and the Negro delinquency rate as the proportion of Negroes in an area increases from 0.0 to 5 0 % ; a negative correlation between these two variables as the proportion of Negroes in a tract increases from 5 0 % to 100%. Areas were classified into six groups upon the basis of the Negro proportion of the population. The large majority of Baltimore's Negro population and delinquents were located in tracts with Negro percentages of 5 0 % or more. The delinquency rate increases from 8 per 100 in sections with 0 - 9 . 9 % Negroes to 13 and 14 per 100 in areas with 10-29.9% and 30-49.9% Negroes. However, as the Negro population proportion increases beyond 50%, the Negro delinquency rate tends to decrease, with the areas of 9 0 % or more Negro population concentration being characterized by the lowest delinquency rates. Thus in the most solidly populated Negro areas, the Negro delinquency rate is the lowest. The following tables present the Negro and white delinquency rates for areas grouped by the percentages of Negroes.

34

ANALYSIS

OF

DELINQUENCY TABLE

RATES

VI

NUMBER AND RATE OF NEGRO JUVENILE

DELINQUENCY

FOR AREAS GROUPED BY PERCENTAGE OF NEGROES BALTIMORE: 1 9 3 9 - 1 9 4 2

P e r c e n t a g e of N e g r o e s 09.9 10- 29.9 30- 49.9 50- 69.9 70- 89.9 90-100

Negro Delinquency Rate

N u m b e r of Negro Population (Aged 6-17) Negro Delinquents

8.10 13.39 13.75 10.42 12.33 7.06

Total

TABLE

153 439 461 688 1,056 755

1,891 3,277 3,353 6,601 8,563 10,695

3,552

34,380

VII

NUMBER AND RATE OF WHITE JUVENILE DELINQUENCY FOR AREAS GROUPED BY PERCENTAGE OF NEGROES, BALTIMORE:

P e r c e n t a g e of N e g r o e s 09.9 10- 29.9 3 0 - 49 9 50- 69.9 70- 89.9 90-100 Total

White Delinquency Rate 2.40 5.36 5.74 5.15 6.39 3.07

1939-1942

N u m b e r of White Population (Aged 6 - 1 7 ) White Delinquents 2,462 663 247 162 92 15

102,371 12,375 4,302 3,146 1,439 488

3,641

124,121

A comparison of Tables V I and V I I indicates a generally similar pattern in the variations of the N e g r o and white delinquency rates in relation to the proportion of Negroes in an area. A review of the zero order correlations or a tabular presentation of the association between two variables provides only a superficial analysis of the "real" relationship. It is of value as it presents an entering wedge for deeper and more fundamental analysis. Additional data and analyses are therefore presented later in this study on the nature of the association between the percentage of Negroes and the delinquency rate and their relations to the other socio-economic variables studied.

ANALYSIS

Juvenile

Delinquency

OF

DELINQUENCY

and Home

RATES

35

Ownership

In the table of zero order correlations, (Table V ) juvenile delinquency is most highly associated with this v a r i a b l e — r = — . 8 0 . T h e relationship, however, is markedly curvilinear. T h e smallest percentages of owner-occupied homes are found ( M a p V I I I , Appendix D ) in the central business district, and in the a d j o i n i n g N e g r o areas. Table V also shows the significant correlation of home ownership with all other variables—with the exception of percentage foreign-born. Juvenile

Delinquency

and

Over-crowding

T h e correlation coefficient between delinquency crowding is r = + . 7 3 and reflects a high degree of between these variables. T h i s is the second highest correlation obtained in the study. T h i s variable is associated with the other indices. Juvenile

Delinquency

and Substandard

and overassociation zero order also highly

Housing

T h e Baltimore data tentatively support the findings of other studies, emphasizing the higher incidence of delinquency in "slums" or in areas characterized by a high percentage of substandard housing. T h e correlation coefficient is r = + . 6 9 . Juvenile

Delinquency

and Percentage

Foreign-bom

T h e correlation coefficient between the delinquency rate and the percentage of foreign-born is r = — . 1 6 . T h e percentage foreign-born is thus not significantly associated with juvenile delinquency at the .01 significance level, but does become significant at the .05 level—all values above r ± .1576 being reliable. O n the .01 level all correlation coefficients under r = ± .2063 are not significant. Otherwise, the percentage of foreign-born is significantly correlated only with the percentage non-white ( r = — . 3 2 ) ; the greater the concentration of Negroes in an area, the smaller the proportion of foreign-born. T h e 1903 Federal Slum Survey found delinquency concentrated primarily in foreign-born sections. In 1940 delinquency

36

ANALYSIS

OF D E L I N Q U E N C Y

RATES

was a characteristic of areas inhabited by native born. In that year, only two of the 2,130 delinquency hearings involved foreign-born children; only 6% involved children of foreign-born or mixed percentage—and at the time 15% of Baltimore's native white population were of foreign-born or mixed parentage. Although the latter statistics are not entirely comparable, they suggest that neither the foreign-born element nor their children contribute more than a proportionate share to the Juvenile Court docket. These facts indicate the falsity of the hypothesis of a positive and necessary relationship between nationality as such and crime. In 1903, the foreign-born groups were economically and socially depressed. In general, they lived in highly mobile and culturally heterogeneous areas. By 1940 many of these groups were well integrated culturally and economically into the Baltimore community and had long left the homes in which they had originally settled. As their social and economic position improved and became stabilized, their delinquency rates decreased correspondingly. It is of interest to note that the correlation coefficient actually indicated an inverse relationship between delinquency and the presence of the foreign-born group. In terms of the study of zero order correlations, the following variables stand out, in order of importance, in their association with juvenile delinquency: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

Percentage of Homes Owner-occupied Percentage of Over-crowding Percentage of Non-whites Percentage of Substandard Housing Median Rentals Median School Years of Education Percentage of Foreign-born

•—.80 —f- .73 +.70 4- .69 —.53 •—.51 —.16

Some Limitations oj the Correlation Coefficient In the social sciences the use of the correlation coefficient is widespread. It is a useful tool if interpreted with full cognizance of its serious limitations.

ANALYSIS

OF D E L I N Q U E N C Y

RATES

37

i. T h e derivation of the product-moment correlation coefficient assumes a linear relationship between t w o variables. It assumes a constant average unit change in variable X with an approximately identical unit change in variable Y in the entire universe of their association. Actually, in social science data, the relationship is frequently not linear. In the present study, as is reported later, the correlations between variables were substantially changed when adjustments were made for the curvilinearity

of the data. A s

statistical analysis is carried

beyond the computation of zero order correlations, the curvilinear component of the data m a y materially affect the statistical results and their interpretation. Furthermore,

the

assumption

of

linear

correlation

may

obscure important variations in sub-classes of the data. T h e following data are presented as e x a m p l e s : a. H i g h negative correlations were found between percentage non-white and median monthly rent; also between the former and median school years of education. Actually these t w o high negative correlation coefficients obscure the fact that a breakdown of the data points to an interesting positive relationship between education, or rent, and percentage non-white as the concentration of N e g r o e s increases beyond 9 0 % of the total population. T h i s fact, while interesting in itself, is of even greater importance in terms of the light it t h r o w s on the nature of the relationships between the levels of education, rent, and the percentage of N e g r o e s in an area. T h e analysis of additional data suggests that areas of greatest N e g r o concentration are also characterized by lower delinquency rates. b. T h e analysis of the concomitance between the N e g r o delinquency rate and the percentage of N e g r o e s yielded a low inverse correlation between these variables. In actuality as w a s pointed out earlier, this correlation coefficient obscures a conflict

in the nature of the association. A s the proportion of

N e g r o e s in a community increases from o to 5 0 % , the association between the N e g r o delinquency rate and the percentage of N e g r o e s is a positive o n e ; as the N e g r o concentration in-

38

A N A L Y S I S OF D E L I N Q U E N C Y

RATES

creases beyond 5 0 % , the Negro delinquency rate becomes negatively correlated with the percentage of Negroes in an area. c. Another illustration that may be of interest is indicated in Sullenger's studies of the relation of delinquency to mobility in Omaha. 4 Sullenger states that, " W h e r e the mobility is large the delinquency is also large; and where there is little mobility, there is little delinquency." In more recent study 5 in Omaha of the relation of mobility to delinquency, Sullenger rcaches a markedly different conclusion of the relationship of these two variables. Sullenger's recent study implies that a derived correlation coefficient would obscure the actual nature of the concomitance between mobility and delinquency. The findings of the Omaha research indicated two distinct sub-groups. Horizontal mobility is both a stabilizing and an unstabilizing influence on social relations. When the intra-urban mobility is accompanied by vertical mobility, stability generally follows a low delinquency rate. On the other hand, high rates of horizontal mobility unaccompanied by vertical mobility were associated with a high incidence of instability, unrest, and crime. 2. A correlation coefficient does not imply any causal nexus. It merely measures a concomitance. Mailer's finding that 4 2 % of delinquents were found by the New Y o r k City Board of Health to be suffering from malnutrition as compared with an average of 1 9 % for the city as a whole does not imply therefore either that malnutrition is a cause of delinquency or that delinquency is a cause of malnutrition. Similarly Dexter's finding that there is a close association between the weather in New Y o r k C i t y and Denver and the incidence of special types of crimes does not in itself necessarily reflect a causal relation. Unfortunately many studies on the basis of the discovery of a correlation between delinquency and such variables as population density, population change, poverty, presence of foreign-born or 4 T. E a r l Sullenger, Social Determinants in Juvenile Delinquency, N e w York, J. Wiley & Sons, 1936, pp. 179-80. 5 T . Earl Sullenger, " The Social Significance of Mobility," American Journal of Sociology, May, 1950, pp. 559-64.

A N A L Y S I S OF D E L I N Q U E N C Y

RATES

39

Negroes, physical type, endocrine gland balance, housing conditions, comic book sales, etc., have assumed a causal relationship between a specific variable and delinquency. Ezekiel provides an interesting illustration of how completely adventitious a high correlation may be.® If the number of automobiles moving down Sixteenth Street in Washington, D. C., for each 15 minute period through a given 12 hours is correlated with the height of the water in the Potomac River during each of the same periods, a definite correlation will be obtained. On some days this correlation would be so high that its probable error would indicate that it would be very unlikely that it could have occurred by chance. However, if on the basis of this correlation one were to attempt to forecast the flow of traffic from the height of the water, he would find his forecast sadly in error if he made it for another day when the street was closed for traffic repairs, when the water was high because of a flood, or when the moon was in a different phase. This is a case in which it is perfectly obvious that there is no direct causal relation between the two phenomena. Yet there is real correlation between them because they both are influenced, though very remotely, by the same sequence of cosmic events. The rising and the setting of the sun have a very definite influence on the movements of persons and therefore on the flow of traffic, whereas the rising and the setting of the moon likewise have a definite influence on the height of the water. Washington is so close to the ocean, and has so low an elevation, that the Potomac River has a definite ebb and flood of tide. There is a certain specific though complex relation between the rising and setting of the sun and of the moon. This relation is changing constantly from day to day. This illustrates a case in which real and significant correlation between two variables reflects causation by a common factor or factors, yet gives no inference as to direct causal connections. Many similar cases are met with in practical work in which the correlation 6 Mordecai Ezekiel, Methods of Correlation & Sons, second edition, 1941, p. 451.

Analysis,

N e w York, J . Wiley

40

ANALYSIS

OF D E L I N Q U E N C Y

RATES

between two variables is due to both being influenced by certain common causees although neither may in any conceivable way influence the other. 3. Sociological problems seldom involve a simple relationship between A and B, but usually involve a relationship between A , B, C, D, and other factors. A s Burgess has noted, delinquency is associated with many socio-economic variables and these variables must also be more or less intercorrelated. 7 Data to be reported later in this study suggest the dangers in the all-too-frequent utilization of the zero order correlation table as a basis for definitive interpretation. Actually despite a high and significant zero order correlation coefficient between delinquency and a specific variable, when the other factors are held constant and their influences eliminated, the relationship may prove to be low and not significant. On the other hand, a variable which is only slightly associated with delinquency in the zero order correlation table may prove to be associated in an important fashion after the partial correlations have been computed. A similar difficulty besets those criminologists who because delinquency is so highly associated with many factors substitute a multiple factor theory for an attempt at the formulation of a universal explanation of criminal behavior. " T h e adherents of this multiple factor 'theory' treat all factors as coordinate except that some are found to have a greater degree of statistical association with criminal behavior than others." 8 T h e adherents of this theory make no attempt to determine the factors that are basically related to delinquency and those that are merely adventitious and/or symptomatic, having no real relation to the understanding or prediction of delinquency, but are merely found together with other factors which are meaningful in the understanding of the etiology of delinquency or 7 Shaw and McKay, Juvenile Delinquency and Urban Areas, Introduction XI. 8 Edwin H. Sutherland, Principles of Criminology, Fourth Rev. Edition, Phila., J. B. Lippincott, 1947, pp. 56-8.

A N A L Y S I S OF D E L I N Q U E N C Y

RATES

4I

statistically significant in the prediction of the delinquency rate. Thus in putting forward an explanation of crime, Lombroso compiled the following factors: "Meteorological and climatic influences, mountain formation, race, civilization or barbarism, density of population, the ease of obtaining subsistence, alcoholism, education, wealth, religion, early training, heredity not only of certain characteristics but of criminality, age, sex, civil status, unemployment, prison, sense impression, imitation, suggestion." 9 P. S. Florence, in his "Statistical Method" cites an example of erroneous generalization due to the failure to use partial association or selection. The contention that most people die in their beds and that therefore a bed is the most unhealthy of places is a familiar example of failure to apply partial association. Going to bed is a usual consequence of being ill and dying occurs after a period of illness. Both phenomena are normal results of illness and to obtain a scientific proof it would be necessary to select only cases of illness and within the universe of illnesses to see whether those going to bed really die in greater proportion than those not going to bed. 10 Durkheim, in his study of suicide, shows in an imaginative fashion the need for partial correlation and the danger of imputing causal significance to zero order correlations. Durkheim found, for example, that: ( i ) the rates of suicide are higher among Protestants than among Catholics, the rate for the former being in some instances two or three times as high as the rate for the latter; ( 2 ) the rates of suicide are higher in the summer than in the winter; ( 3 ) the suicide rate is higher in urban than in rural areas; ( 4 ) the suicide rate is higher among the single and the divorced persons than among the 9 R. M. Maclver, Social Causation, New York, Ginn & Company, 1942, p. 83. 10 P. S. Florence, The Statistical Method in Economics and Political Science, N e w York, Harcourt, Brace & Co., 1929, p. 205.

42

ANALYSIS

OF D E L I N Q U E N C Y

RATES

married; ( 5 ) and among the married persons it is higher among those who have no children. Durkheim points out that we must not infer from these data that the difference of religion explains the differential rates among Catholics and Protestants. The theology of the Protestant religion is as antagonistic to suicide as is Catholicism. In actuality, Durkheim notes that the religious group with the lowest rate of suicide, the Jews, is the very one with fewest formal proscriptions against suicide and with the least emphasis on immortality. Furthermore the shifting suicide rates among J e w s emphasizes the significance of a factor other than religion in the explanation of the differential suicide rate. In the middle of the nineteenth century the suicide rate for Jews in Germany was even lower than that of the Catholics, whereas, in the twentieth century the Jewish rate exceeded even the Protestant rate. Neither should we infer that the climatic factor as such determines or explains the fact that the suicide rate is higher in the summer than in the winter. In a highly imaginative, although non-statistical method, Durkheim emphasizes the importance of "partialing-out" or holding constant the condition associated with being Catholic or Protestant, with one's marital status, with the season of the year, with living in urban or rural areas, that has relevance and is conducive to or deterrent of suicide. Durkheim advances the hypothesis that the relevant condition was the degree of social cohesion. The Catholic church group is as a social group more closely knit, and more cohesive than the Protestant church group. Marriage, parenthood, and rural life also make for closer social cohesion and integration. They protect the individual against the sense of social isolation. The analysis of the seasonal rates also indicates that it is not climate or temperature, as such, which affects the suicide rate but that with the coming of spring and summer, human activities and modes of living change. According to Durkheim, the length of the day influences the rhythm of social life. The longer day and the season of the year makes for more intense and active participa-

ANALYSIS

OF D E L I N Q U E N C Y

RATES

43

tion in social events and this in turn tends to deepen the already existing sense of social isolation which occurs in some individuals. The person experiencing a sense of social isolation feels his isolation much more deeply in the city center than if he were in a deserted district. Thus, it is not weather, religion, area of residence, marital state, per se, that are causal factors of suicide. The aforementioned variables are all also highly correlated with the presence or lack of socially integrating conditions. The rate of suicide thus varies with the degree of social cohesion. In his study, Durkheim substituted for the zero order correlation coefficient as a basis for causal explanation a "partial correlation" analysis (utilizing statistical logic but no statistical formulas). 4. Professor W . S. Robinson demonstrates that ecological correlations cannot be used as substitutes for individual correlations. Correlations based on the "properties of areas as such" cannot be reasonably assumed to be equal to corresponding correlations based on the characteristics of individuals. Thus, the interpretation of the analysis of the differential delinquency rate in the present study has relevance only as it provides an explanation for the variations in delinquency rates between census tracts. Robinson's demonstration provides another indication that personal disorganization may not be taken to be merely a reflection of social disorganization. 1 1 11 Cf., W. S. Robinson, " Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals," American Sociological Review, 15 (June 1950), pp. 551-57 also Herbert Menzel, " Comment on Robinson's Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals," American Sociological Review, 15 (October 1950), p. 674.

C H A P T E R

IV

MULTIPLE AND PARTIAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS What is the relation between the juvenile delinquency rate and each variable when the influence of the intercorrelations among these other variables is eliminated? THE coefficient of partial correlation enables us to isolate the effects of one variable from those of another variable and study each separately. It further enables us to find the extent of the correlation between each of our independent social and economic correlates and the dependent factor, which in the present study is juvenile delinquency, when all other factors are held constant and their influence eliminated. The usefulness of the coefficient of partial correlation is, however, limited by the basic assumption that the zero order correlations must have linear regressions. In many sociological researches, this fundamental requisite is not met. In the present study, there are curvilinear relations between median school years of education, rent, percentage non-white, percentage substandard housing, and the dependent variable—juvenile delinquency. Linear regressions or coefficients of partial correlation are obviously not suited to express adequately such relations. W e have, therefore, calculated the indices of correlation. W e have used a simple parabolic curve derived by the least squares method. 1 F o r purposes of this and further analysis, we have introduced into the correlation matrix four additional variables derived by squaring each unit of the curvilinearly related independent variables. These derived variables, when added to the original variables, have the effect of providing a corrective for the deficiencies of linear correlation coefficients in representing 1 F . A. Pearson and K. R. Bennett, Statistical Methods Applied Agricultural Economics, N e w York, J. Wiley & Sons, 1942, pp. 243-4.

to

CORRELATIONAL

ANALYSIS

45

curvilinear relationships. The additional correlations are given in Table VIII. T A B L E CORRELATIONS WITH

Education' Rent» Nonwhite' Homes Owneroccupied' Education' Rent' Nonwhite' Homes Owneroccupied'

ORIGINAL

VIII

OF D E R I V E D

VARIABLES

AND

VARIABLES

WITH

ONE

ANOTHER

JuveHomes Subnile Owner- standard F o r e i g n - D e l i n occupied Housing born quency

Education

Rent

Overcrowding

+ .99 + .78

+ .89 + .96

-.66 -.54

-.37 -.26

+ .34 + .37

-.71 -.56

-.10 -.11

-.48 -.43

-.37

-.28

+ .63

+ .97

-.67

+.50

-.33

+.59

+ .39

+ .51

-.68

-.66

+ .97

-.65

+ .05

-.73

(Education)' + .81

Nonwhite

(Rent)' + .81

-.34

-.22

+ .35

+ .41

(Non-white)' -.34 -.22

( 0 wner-occupied)' + .35 + .41 -.56

-.56

A comparison of the partial correlations based on the assumption of linearity with those derived from correlation coefficients after adjustments for curvilinearity had been made suggests the need of making such adjustments when the relationship between variables is non-linear in order that we may be able to make more adequate and correct interpretations of the real relationships between variables. Table I X presents the coefficients of partial correlation and the indices of partial correlation, which are derived from the complete correlation matrix, which includes the new variables. Table X, which includes the zero order correlations between delinquency and each of the variables studied, is presented for comparison purposes.

CORRELATIONAL

46

T A B L E PARTIAL DELINQUENCY WHEN

ALL

CORRELATION

RATE

OTHER

AND

I X

BETWEEN

EACH

VARIABLES

ANALYSIS

OF

ARE

INFLUENCE

THE HELD

AND

CERTAIN

VARIABLES AND

.0055 .0003 .0079 .0086 .1764 .0052 .0213

T A B L E CORRELATION

CONSTANT

THEIR

ELIMINATED

M e d i a n School Y e a r s C o m p l e t e d Median Monthly Rent Percentage Homes Over-crowded Percentage Non-whites Percentage Homes Owner-occupied Percentage Homes Substandard Percentage Foreign-born

ORDER

JUVENILE

C o e f f i c i e n t of I n d e x of Partial Correlation Partial Correlation

Specified Variable

ZERO

THE

SPECIFIED

BETWEEN OTHER

X

THE

JUVENILE

SPECIFIED

Specified Variable M e d i a n School Y e a r s C o m p l e t e d Median Monthly Rent Percentage Homes Over-crowded Percentage Non-whites Percentage Homes Owner-occupied Percentage Homes Substandard Percentage Foreign-born

.0370 .0109 .0090 .1229 .2438 .0000 .0000

DELINQUENCY

RATE

VARIABLES

C o r r e l a t i o n Coefficient

—

+ + —

—

.51 .53 .73 .70 .80 .69 .16

In the zero order correlation table, (Table X ) the juvenile delinquency rate is highly correlated with substandard housing and with residential over-crowding. In the partial correlation analysis, when the influence of other variables studied is eliminated, instead of positive correlations between these variables and delinquency of r = + 69 and + . 7 3 , we have derived coefficients of partial correlations of .0052 and .0079 as describing the real relationship between these variables and delinquency; and when adjustment is made for the curvilinearity of the data the partial correlations are reduced in both instances to .0000. This indicates that, despite the high correlation coefficients, there is no substantive relationship between these two variables and delinquency when all other factors are held constant and their influence eliminated. W e also cite the

CORRELATIONAL

ANALYSIS

47

presented data to emphasize the danger of attaching great importance to interpretations based on zero order correlation analysis. A n analysis of the partial correlation table also suggests the need for making adjustments for the curvilinearity of relationships in order to provide an adequate base of data for interpretive study. Considerable changes in the value and rank of importance of the partials between specified variables and delinquency result from curvilinear adjustments. The coefficient of partial correlation for percentage foreign-born is .0213, and is second in rank of importance as a correlate of the delinquency rate; its index of partial correlation is reduced to zero. In contrast, the coefficient of partial correlation for percentage non-whites is .0086; its index of partial correlation is .1229. What is the relative contribution of each independent in predicting the juvenile delinquency rate?

variable

T h e coefficient of partial correlation summarizes the degree of concomitance between two variables when the influence of other variables is ruled out. It is most perculiarly appropriate for the study of relations among sets of measurements made simultaneously when there is no more reason to estimate X i from X 3 than to estimate X 2 from Xi. It is the coefficient of regression which is the most appropriate statistical technique when variable Y may be designated as dependent on, controlled by, or a consequent of factor X. The regression coefficient measures the slope of the regression line; that is, it shows the average number of units increase or decrease of the dependent variable which occur with each increase or decrease of a specified unit of the independent variable. The net multiple regression equation enables us to study the change in the delinquency rate per unit change in the independent variable after the effects of all other variables have been eliminated. The exact size of the regression coefficient depends not only on the relation between the variables but also on the units in which each is

48

CORRELATIONAL

ANALYSIS

stated. Since we have probably measured the individual variables in terms of different units, our X's in the different series are of unlike meaning. I n order that we may present the net regression coefficients in a directly comparable basis, it is desirable to reduce all our scores to "standard measures" which have everywhere the same meaning. This is accomplished by stating each of the variables in units of its own individual standard deviation. Regression coefficients related to such standard measures have been termed "beta" coefficients. T h e "beta" coefficients are especially useful if we wish to see the relative importance in affecting or predicting the variation in the delinquency rate. T h e following table presents the linear and curvilinear betas. T A B L E LINEAR BETWEEN VARIABLE HELD

AND

CURVILINEAR

JUVENILE WHEN

DELINQUENCY

THE

CONSTANT

XI BETA

OTHER

AND T H E I R

COEFFICIENTS

AND

EACH

VARIABLES INFLUENCE

SPECIFIED

SPECIFIED

ARE

ELIMINATED

Curvilinear Betas Specified Variable Median School Years Completed Median Rental Percentage H o m e s Over-crowded Percentage Non-whites Percentage H o m e s Owner-occupied Percentage H o m e s Substandard Percentage Foreign-born

Linear Beta -.1145 -.0256 + .1113 + .0985 -.5179 + .0870 -.0896

Curv ¡linear Linear Component C o m p o n e n t +1.0596 - 1 . .1020 .4281 + . 2978 + .0833 + .8091* — .7846* - 1 . 6 9 8 2 " ' + 1 .1773* + .0537 .0265

* Significant at .05 level. ** Significant at .01 level.

Since the correlations between the delinquency rate and several of the specified variables are curvilinear, it is apparent that the analysis of the linear betas would not provide an adequate and accurate delineation of the relative contributions of each of the predicting variables to the delinquency rate. T h e use of the curvilinear betas for this purpose is also precluded. T h e regression coefficient is derived as a measure of the slope of the regression line vis-a-vis the X and the Y axes. In a curvi-

CORRELATIONAL

ANALYSIS

49

linear regression equation, the curvilinear slope of the regression line makes impossible the determination of the average number of units increase or decrease of the dependent variable which occurs with each increase or decrease of a specified unit of the independent variable. These betas are however of vital importance if we wish to determine the maximum accuracy with which we could predict the delinquency rate by combining a number of predictive factors each with its "best weight." They are also of importance for the computations of the " b ' s " which enable us to predict the delinquency rate for a specific area in terms of the socio-economic characteristics of the area. What percentage of the total variance oj the juvenile delinquency rate can be accounted jor by its relation to the joint operation oj the social and economic indices considered? T h e index of multiple correlation is the quantitative expression of the combined effect of all the independent variables in accounting for the observed variance of the juvenile delinquency rates. T h e index of multiple correlation, P, differs from the coefficient of multiple correlation, R, inasmuch as it takes into account the curvilinear regressions. For our data, R = .8430, and P = .8897. T h e index of determination (the square of the index of multiple correlation) measures the percentage of total variance in the dependent variable accounted for on the basis of its relation to the independent variables. In our research, the index of determination is approximately .79. Thus, 7 9 % of the variance in the delinquency rates of our data could be accounted for on the basis of the socio-economic indices whose relations with delinquency we have studied. In other words, if these socio-economic factors were held constant, the variation in delinquency rate from census tract to census tract would be reduced to that extent. Our index of determination is comparatively high for sociological studies. It also contrasts with an index of determination of .71, which is derived if no adjustments are made for the curvilinearity of the data.

50

CORRELATIONAL

ANALYSIS

The interpretation of the index of determination is limited by the fact that it is mathematically derived from the relations of indices. In itself, it does not explain the variations in the dependent variable. In a study of causation, an essential and difficult gap to span is the interpretation of what the indiccs actually represent and measure.

CHAPTER

V

FACTOR ANALYSIS How many "fundamental" or "underlying" variables must be postulated to account for the intercorrelations among the predicting variables? THE previous statistical analysis dealt largely with problems of prediction. Juvenile delinquency was assumed as the dependent variable, the others as independent or predicting variables. Factor analysis deals only indirectly with problems of prediction. It is a tool to discover any underlying order among the variables studied. There is no assumption of distinction between independent or dependent variables. There is only the assumption : . . . that a variety of phenomena within a domain are related and that they are determined at least in part by a relatively small number of functional units or factors. . . . In the more fundamental factorial problem the object is to discover whether the variables can be made to exhibit some underlying order that may throw light on the process that produces the individual differences shown in all the variables.1 In the factor analysis of the matrix of correlations, we did not adhere strictly to the assumption of the orthogonality of the factors, nor did we adhere to the arbitrary rotational criteria set up by Thurstone for the isolation of a simple structure. We used factor analysis as a tool for testing a specific hypothesis as to the structure of variables analyzed. In the following statement, Professor William S. Robinson provides the reasoning on which this factor analysis is based: A large proportion of the factorial studies of political behavior have failed to use the more powerful and realistic methods 1 Thurstone, L. L., Multiple Chicago Press, 1947, pp. 60-1.

Factor

Analysis,

Chicago, University of

FACTOR

ANALYSIS

of the factor analysis. It is hard to find examples in this field which do not exhibit the three deficiencies of (a) strict adherence to orthogonality, ( b ) reliance upon arbitrary rotational criteria, and (c) the acceptance of quite meaningless results. The Doctrine of

Orthogonality

Factor analysis is a tool for finding concepts to integrate our knowledge. The factor analyst looks for a few basic variables which will permit him to describe or predict a wide range of specific behavior. H e would like to define these basic variables in such a way that they are uncorrelated among his subjects, for this would simplify matters. Anyone who uses multiple regression prefers that his independent variables be uncorrelated, for then each of the standardized partial regression coefficients is equal to the corresponding zero order correlation between the independent and the dependent variable. Unfortunately, however, the factor analyst also wants his concepts to 'make sense,' i.e., to be interpretable and to fit into the already systematized body of knowledge. And this requirement, particularly in the social field, is often incompatible with the demand for orthogonality. Most evidence concerning the determiners of political attitude, for instance, suggests that these different determiners are correlated with each other. In the example which we shall discuss later, abandonment of orthogonality considerably clarifies the situation. Arbitrary

Rotational

Criteria

Rotation is a search for design, or structure, among the intercorrelations of a set of tests. Structure does not get into a correlation matrix by chance; it appears because the factor analyst has put it there by selecting a number of relatively homogeneous sub-sets of tests. And his reason for putting it there prescribes the kind of structure which will be acceptable. A man collects a battery of tests and factors their intercorrelations because he suspects that a relatively simple order underlies them. H e selects tests for inclusion in the battery in the light of a hypothesis or hunch as to the nature of that order. If the specific order which he anticipated does not

FACTOR

ANALYSIS

53

appear in the factor analysis, however, he may accept another if it seems plausible. B u t the point of primary importance is that rotational criteria depend upon the hypothesis which guided the selection of tests for the battery. Consequently, the arbitrary adoption of rotational criteria, without regard to the purposes for which they are useful, is not a fruitful mode of procedure. T h e outcome of such arbitrary criteria is usually a good proportion of meaningless results. 2 T A B L E FACTOR

Variable

ANALYSIS

F Centroid Matrix Fl

Delinquency Rate 1 Median School Years completed - 2 Median Rentals - 3 Percentage Overcrowding 4 Percentage Nonwhites 5 Percentage Homes Owner-occupied •- 6 Percentage Homes Substandard 7 Percentage For-8 eign-born

F2

.844 - . 2 2 7 .763 .764 .902 .782 .811 .870 .104

X I I

OP

THE

VARIABLES

G Rotated Matrix

G An Oblique Transformation gl

g2

.423 .375 Del. Rate

Gl

G2

.562

.107

.532 - . 9 0 6 .927 Low Educa. — .160 .779 Low Rent — .139 .749 .504 Overcrowd .107 ing .285 .437 Many Negroes .696- .081 -.403 Many Renters .615 .026 -.300 Substandard .253 Housing .139 .561 Many -.467 .468- .395 Natives Correlation 1 .000 .684 between factors .684 1 .000

T w o centroid factors w e r e e x t r a c t e d w h i c h , between them, account f o r 9 4 . 7 % of the c o m m u n a l i t y . T h e factor loadings are g i v e n in the left-hand section of T a b l e

XII.

G r a p h I indicates the position of the eight variables studied in relation t o the t w o f a c t o r s w h i c h w e r e extracted in the cen2 William S. Robinson, " Factor Analysis of Political Data," American Socological Rev., 1945, vol. X, pp. 271-3.

54

FACTOR

ANALYSIS

•I.OOI

• 60

-2 • -3'

•.SO •40 •30

7»

• 20

4.

•JO

0 -JO -20

-6.

-30

5.

-.40

-8*

-SO -.60

-1.00'

-20

-1.00

GRAPH

I.

-.10

PLOT

0

»10

»20

*.30

FI

OF V A R I A B L E S

•40 +.50 +60 •70 •80 »90 »100 IN

RELATION

TO

CENTROID

F A C T O R S ( V A R I A B L E S D E S I G N A T E D BY N U M B E R AS I N T A B L E X I I )

troid analysis. B y inspection it seems evident that w e are dealing here with two correlated but distinct clusters of variables. T h e first cluster consists of variables i (delinquency rate), 5 (percentage non-white) and 6 (percentage homes owner-occupied). T h e second cluster consists of variables 2 (median school years of education completed), 3 (median rentals), 4 (percentage over-crowding), and 7 (percentage of substandard housing). It may also be noted that variable 8 (percentage foreign-born) seems to stand off by itself and is

FACTOR

ANALYSIS

55

clearly different in character f r o m the variables of either the first

or second cluster. T h e t w o clusters are apparently not

independent. W e , accordingly, hypothesize that there are t w o fundamental, but correlated, factors a m o n g the eight descriptive properties of the census tracts. T h e rotated matrix corresponding to this hypothetical structure is g i v e n in the right-hand section of Table

XII,

along

with

the

appropriately

re-named

vari-

ables. T h e factorial structure of variable 8 cannot be identified within the g r o u p of variables described on the graph but would require the examination of a larger m a t r i x including

many

variables which we have not considered. T h e n a m i n g of the factors in a factorial analysis is somew h a t arbitrary. W e hypothesize that the first factor may be characterized as an anornic

factor. Some areas are character-

ized by "normlessness," the breakdown or weakening of the regulatory structure of society. A s Parsons, commenting on D u r k h e i m ' s T h e o r y of A n o m i e , puts it, "Anomie

is precisely

this state of disorganization where the hold of norms over individual conduct has broken d o w n . " is a measure of the anomie

3

T h e delinquency rate

factor. T h e percentage of homes

owner-occupied is another such measure. H o m e ownership is an index of social stability. In a recent article in the A m e r i c a n Journal of Sociology, Lillian Cohen reports the finding that, "home-ownership, for the most part represents stability and s e c u r i t y — s o c i a l and p s y c h o l o g i c a l — t o the modern urban family and a means of resisting the city's unfavorable influence upon family life."

4

T h u s , to the extent to which an area is

stable, there should be little deviant behavior and vice versa. A d d i t i o n a l support for our hypothesis that home-ownership is an index of social stability is provided in a recent study reported by John P . D e a n in the Journal of Social Issues. O n the basis of surveys made f r o m 1948 to 1950 a m o n g representative cross-sections of the adult population in Elmira, N e w 3 Talcott Hill Book 4 Lillian Journal of

Parsons, The Structure of Social Action, N e w York, M c G r a w Co., 1937, p. 377. Cohen, " Family Characteristics of H o m e Owners," American Sociology, May 1950, p. 571.

56

FACTOR

ANALYSIS

Y o r k and Steubenville, Ohio, Dean stated that, " F o r many families of modest income, home-ownership today represents a step up into middle class respectability. But middle-class asperations in our society are often supported by the Protestant ethic: higher status and standard of living are individual responsibilities; they are the result of hard work, thrift, ingenuity and self-denial; property is viewed as the fruit of individual effort, and its accumulation is supposed to reflect moral integrity and reliable work habits. . . . We find that more home owners than renters designate themselves as middle-class. This is true regardless of actual socio-economic class as noted by interviewers. Furthermore, if home owners are recruited more from the ranks of adherents to the Protestant ethic, we would expect to find among them stable families that are better integrated into community life. This expectation is borne out; more home owners are church-goers, union members and voters. Home owners have lived longer in the community and more of them think their home towns are "very good places to live." Apparently, middle class aspirations among the more stable families had them to acquire property and settle down. Although we usually think of the white-collar and managerial classes as the recruiting grounds for home-ownership, almost half of the semi-skilled and unskilled workers are home owners. . . . A surprising proportion of owners (in most classes, a higher proportion than among the rentees) has only a grammar school education or less. 5 The percentage of Negroes in an area is another measure of the anornic factor. The presence of many Negroes within an area is in many instances a feature of urban environments that are in process of transition or are characterized by instability. The anomie among Baltimore's Negroes is evidenced by the fact that in 1929 approximately 2 2 % of the Negro births were illegitimate. Also, a large proportion of Baltimore's Negro population is composed of migrants from the South. 5 John P. Dean, " The Ghosts of Home Ownership," The Journal Social Issues, volume V I I , 1951, pp. 59-61.

of

FACTOR

ANALYSIS

57

"These men and women have not only been uprooted from the soil but have no roots in a communal life and have broken all social ties. Their mobility has emancipated them in many cases from the most elementary forms of social control. . . . Migrants both in and out of the churches, are freed from the control exercised by the church and other forms of neighborhood organizations in the South. They need no longer fear the gossip of their neighbors or the disgrace of their being 'churched' if they violate the mores of the community." 6 "The widespread disorganization of family life among Negroes has affected practically every phase of their community life and adjustments to the larger white world. Because of the absence of stability in family life, there is a lack of traditions. Life among a large portion of the urban Negro population is casual, precarious, and fragmentary. It lacks continuity and its roots do not go deeper than the contingencies of daily living. This affects the socialization of the Negro child. With a fourth to a third of Negro families in cities without a male head, many Negro children suffer the initial handicap of not having the discipline and authority of the father in the home. Negro mothers who have the responsibility for the support of the family are forced to neglect their children who pick up all forms of socially disapproved behavior in the disorganized areas in which these families are concentrated. . . . Thus family disorganization and social and economic forces in the community unite to create a sense of irresponsibility among Negro youth. Out of such an environment comes the large number of criminals and juvenile delinquents in the cities of the country." T W e hypothesize that the second fundamental factor may be characterized as an economic factor, with rent and education as the purest measures of this factor. Substandard and overcrowded housing are also indices of this factor. The transformation of the centroid matrix into a rotated 6 E. Franklin Frazier, The Negro Family in the United States, Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1939, pp. 290-6. 7 E. Franklin Frazier, The Negro in the United States, N e w York, The Macmillan Co., 1949, pp. 636-7.

58

FACTOR

ANALYSIS

matrix will determine the existence of two such basic factors and the degree to which our variables reflect them. Our hypotheses imply that we should be able to transform the centroid matrix into a rotated matrix with certain definite properties; that education, rent and other socio-economic measures should be loaded on the socio-economic factor, but not on the anomic factor, and that the delinquency rate should be loaded on the anomic factor, but not on the socio-economic factor. The rotated matrix is consistent with our hypotheses. E x amining G i (Table X I I ) , the anomic factor, we find that the entries for education, rent and substandard housing are close to zero. They contribute less than 3 % of the total variable variance. Only overcrowding is slightly higher, with an entry of .295. The anomic factor has three important correlates: Many Negroes (.696), many renters ( . 6 1 5 ) , and a high delinquency rate (.562). The loading of variable 8 (percentage foreign-born) on this and the other factor should not be taken too seriously since, as has already been indicated, its factorial composition is quite ambiguous and requires further clarification. A n examination of G2, the socio-economic factor, is consistent with our second hypothesis. The two large positive entries are: low education (.779) and low rent (.749). The two moderate positive entries are: much substandard housing ( . 5 6 1 ) and over-crowding (.437). Thus, education and rent are the measures most highly correlated with the socio-economic level factor. Over-crowding and substandard housing partake more moderately of this factor. The only other significant correlation is the negative correlation ( — 3 9 5 ) of many natives, which indicates that tracts in which there is a large proportion of foreign-born whites tend to be on a low socioeconomic level. The loadings for the delinquency rate, many Negroes, and many renters, which were high on the anomic factor, are negligible and almost zero on the socio-economic factor. The factor analysis demonstrates that it is possible to account for almost all of the covariation in the complex of interrelations in terms of two fundamental or underlying factors; an anomic

FACTOR

factor and a socio-economic

ANALYSIS

59

factor. T h e loadings of the eco-

nomic indices on G i , the anomic

factor and of the

anomic

indices on G2, the socio-economic

factor are negligible and

close to zero, emphasizing the fundamental differences between these t w o factors.

The

factor analysis clearly

demonstrates

that delinquency in Baltimore is fundamentally related to the stability

or anomie

of an area and is not a function of nor is

it basically associated with the economic characteristics of an area. T h e factor analysis also suggests contrary evidence to the Burgess and S h a w thesis that all the variables correlated with juvenile delinquency, including delinquency, " m a y be considered manifestations of some general basic factor." T h e correlation between the anomic

and the

socio-economic

factors is, as one w o u l d expect f r o m the inspection of graph 1, high

(.684).

It

provides

an

explanation

of

delinquency is so highly correlated w i t h the

the fact

that

socio-economic

properties of a tract. T h e association between the factors h o w ever is statistical. T h e factor analysis indicates that, in Baltimore, areas characterized by instability and anomie

are frequently the same

districts which are also characterized by bad housing, rentals and over-crowding. But the delinquency is tally related only to the anomie economic

low

jundamen-

and not to the poor

socio-

conditions of the tract. T h e implication of this for the

understanding of the differential delinquency rate is described in the f o l l o w i n g table: T A B L E DELINQUENCY

XIII

RATE

EXPECTANCY

Anomie

Socio-Economic Level

Delinquency Rate

+ +

+ +

+ +

—

—

— —

In an area characterized by normlessness or social instability, despite its high socio-economic level, one would thus expect a high delinquency rate. O n the other hand, one w o u l d predict

6o

FACTOR

ANALYSIS

a low delinquency rate for a stable community even though it w e r e characterized by poverty, bad housing and over-crowding. A d d i t i o n a l data will be presented below in support of this hypothesis. T h e factor analysis presented in this study is subject to several limitations that m a y have bearing on its interpretations: 1. It is derived f r o m the linear correlation coefficients. It has been indicated earlier that in several instances the relations between our variables are non-linear. 2. F a c t o r analysis is most useful when it is utilized as a special statistical technique in a battery of statistical approaches. O t h e r w i s e its interpretation m a y be moot and even misleading. F o r example, in this study a racist could utilize the results of the factor analysis in support of a racist theory of

crime

r e f e r r i n g to the close association, that our analysis reveals, between the delinquency rate and the percentage of Negroes. T h e plotting of the net regression equation not only provides an essential supplement to the factor analysis, but also describes the distribution of delinquency rates for census tracts w i t h v a r y i n g N e g r o concentrations. It firmly establishes the fact that it is not the presence of N e g r o e s per se that is associated w i t h delinquency but that the N e g r o neighborhoods in Baltimore are characterized by social instability and normlessness and that as the N e g r o becomes socially stabilized his delinquency rate correspondingly decreases. Crucial and of interest is the fact reported below that in completely stabilized N e g r o areas, i.e. areas of 90 to 1 0 0 % N e g r o population, the N e g r o delinquency rate is the same as the corresponding white rate when the influence of other factors is eliminated.

C H A P T E R

VI

FURTHER CORRELATIONAL ANALYSIS To

what

extent

the selection juvenile

can the predicting of a jew

delinquency

sive number

of

equation

be simplified

by

which

may predict

the

variables

rate almost as well as the more

exten-

variables?

T H E findings of the factor analysis suggest that the predicti n g equation can be simplified by the selection of t w o variables, percentage homes owner-occupied and percentage

non-white

a s the predicting variables since these t w o variables, and these alone, apart

f r o m delinquency are fundamentally

w i t h the anomic

associated

factor which w e have hypothesized to be the

significant factor in delinquency. T h e limitation of the factor analytic findings as a result of their h a v i n g been based on linear correlation coefficients w a s pointed out earlier. H o w e v e r , the examination of the partial correlation table, Table I X , w h i c h presents the indices of partial correlation, based on measures a d j u s t e d for curvilinearity, supports the findings of the factor analysis. A d d i t i o n a l support for the

findings

of the factor analysis

w a s derived f r o m the computation of a component analysis of the augmented m a t r i x of correlation which includes the curvilinear corrections. Only betas marked by asterisks in Table X I w e r e found to be statistically significant on the .01 or .05 level. T h e linear component of the percentage of homes owner-occupied is significant on the .01 level. T h e linear and curvilinear components

of

the

variable

percentage

non-white

and

the

curvilinear component of the variable homes owner-occupied are significant on the .05 level. T h e other variables studied in their relation to juvenile delinquency—rent, education,

sub-

standard housing, over-crowding and f o r e i g n - b o r n — a r e

not

significant in the prediction of an area's delinquency rate. T h e findings

of the component analysis with relation to the statis-

62

FURTHER

CORRELATION

ANALYSIS

tical significance of the variables and their components completely support and reaffirm the findings of the factor analysis. Of

all the variables studied, only the percentage of

owner-occupied fundamentally characterized

homes

and percentage of N e g r o e s in an area related

to the delinquency

rate and can

as statistically significant predicting

are be

variables.

Since only t w o variables were significantly related to j u v e nile delinquency, and the others showed what m a y well be only chance relations to it, a new regression equation

was

computed. T h e following table lists the new betas and b's. T h e new values are all significant at the .05 level, and the linear component of percentage homes owner-occupied is significant at the .01 level. T A B L E NET

REGRESSION

DELINQUENCY

X I V

COEFFICIENTS

FROM

SELECTED

TO

Variable Percentage Non-white Percentage Homes Owner-occupied ( P e r c e n t a g e Non w h i t e ) 1 (Percentage Homes Owner-occupied)'

PREDICT

VARIABLES

Betas

b's

+ .9955 -1.4401 .8491 + .8585

+ .1385 -.2978 -.0014 + .0023

T h e index of multiple correlation between the t w o variables and delinquency is P =

.85. T h e index of determination is

.72. T h u s , 7 2 % of the variance in the delinquency rates of our data could be accounted for on the basis of the t w o variables w h o s e relations with delinquency we have studied. T h e index of determination for all the seven variables in their relation to delinquency

is

71%

if

no

adjustments

are

made

for

the

curvilinearity of the data. If adjustments are made for the curvilinearity,

the derived

index of determination

is

79%.

T h u s , seven variables give us a higher index of determination than two, but since only t w o of these variables are fundamentally related and are statistically significant predicting variables, w e are justified in using only these t w o in the equation.

estimating

GRAPH

II.

RELATION

BETWEEN

DELINQUENCY

AND

P E R C E N T A G E N O N - W H I T E AFTER E F F E C T S OF O T H E R VARIABLES HAVE BEEN

ELIMINATED

64

FURTHER

CORRELATION

ANALYSIS

Graph II shows a plot of the net regression curve showing the relationship between delinquency and the proportion of the population that is non-white, after the effects of the other variables have been eliminated. Also, the actual deviations for each tract, i. e., the differences between the predicted delinquency rate and the actual delinquency rate were plotted above and below the net regression line. An inspection of the errors of estimate, suggests that the mathematically derived net regression line adequately formulates the relationship between the population proportion of Negroes and the delinquency rate. It is of interest to note that the sum of the positive and negative deviants are about equal in both halves of the parabola. A n inspection of the graph indicates that the delinquency rate increases as the Negro population percentage in an area increases to 5 0 % . But as the Negro population concentration increases beyond 5 0 % , the predicted delinquency rate markedly decreases. The graph indicates that other things being equal, in areas of highest Negro concentration the predicted delinquency rate would be no higher than in white areas. The net regression graph adds to our understanding of the nature of the association between the presence of Negroes and delinquency. It amply confirms our interpretation of the factor analysis to the effect that the indicated fundamental relationship between delinquency and Negroes is not a function of race or being Negro, per se, but rather a reflection of the instability and anomie that characterizes Negro community life in Baltimore. If race as such were a predicting factor, the regression line describing the relationship between percentage non-whites and the delinquency rate would be linear and predict a per unit increase in the delinquency rate per unit increase in the percentage of non-whites. Actually the association is significantly and highly curvilinear. In the areas of the greatest Negro population concentration, the delinquency rate is lowest. The regression line suggests that as the Negro population concentration increases beyond 5 0 % , the area becomes more

FURTHER

CORRELATION

ANALYSIS

65

socially stabilized with the greatest stabilization occurring in the areas of 9 0 - 1 0 0 % Negro concentration. A n examination of the graph also indicates that the maximum social instability is located in the areas in which the two racial groups approach equality in numbers. In these areas, the delinquency rate is highest. It is of interest to note that the examination of Tables V I and V I I indicates that in these areas both the white and Negro groups—when their rates are computed separately—approach their highest delinquency rates. The data thus suggest that such areas of racial heterogeneity are characterized by a general social instability and weakening of the social controls and norms which reflect themselves in a high delinquency rate for all groups—white and Negro. The Baltimore data also suggest a parabolic curve hypothesis; cultural conflict and community or social instability are most intense when diverse and "clashing" social and cultural groups are of about equal proportions in a neighborhood. Support for this hypothesis is provided by a study of racial tensions in the Washington Heights section of New Y o r k City. 1 The Negro-white and Irish-Jewish conflicts and tensions were greatest in districts of equal population strength. The tensions were less where the "invasion" process was completed and one group became dominant in numbers. Further support for the rejection of a racist theory of crime causation is also found in the distribution of Negro delinquency rates, from a low of 1.5 for the Negroes in Census Tract 1 3 - 1 — o n e of the very lowest rates in the city for either white or Negro groups—to a high of 23.5 in Census Tract 4-2. Census Tract 4-2 (the locus of both the highest Negro and white delinquency rates) is the Rooming House District of Baltimore and residentially highly unstable. Its population is mobile. In contrast, Census Tract 1 3 - 1 , in northwest Baltimore, is a district in which a large part of Baltimore's leading Negro families and professionals live. Of the city as a whole, 6 . 3 % 1 An unpublished study of the Washington Heights area by the Mayor's Committee on Unity of New Y o r k City.

66

FURTHER

CORRELATION

ANALYSIS

of its entire population classes and 2 . 5 % of the Negroes are professional workers. In Census Tract 1 3 - 1 , 1 3 % of the employed Negroes were professional workers. In this area, approximately 1 4 % of the Negroes aged 25 years or more were college graduates. T h i s is in contrast to a median of 7 . 7 % for the population of the entire city. In Census Tract 1 3 - 3 , a neighboring area also inhabited by many N e g r o professionals, the N e g r o male delinquency rate, although higher than that of Census Tract 1 3 - 1 , is only one-third of the white rate. Furthermore, in Census Tracts 14-2, 1 8 - 1 , 18-2 and 1 9 - 1 , the white delinquency rate is one and a half to twice as high as the corresponding Negro rate. Also, in at least two areas with small N e g r o populations, namely, Tracts 9-1 and 20-2, there have been no recorded cases of delinquency during the study period. T h u s , the key to the understanding of differential delinquency rates is not to be found in race or color. T h e net regression graph presented below describes the relationship between the extent of home-ownership in an area when the linear and curvilinear components of the non-white variable are held constant and their influence on the delinquency rate eliminated. A n examination of the graph shows a precipitous decrease in the delinquency rate as the proportion of homeownership in an area increases from 2 0 % to 4 0 % and a gradualized rate of decrease thereafter. A n increase in the percentage of home owner-occupied beyond 6 0 % suggests a slight concomitant increase in the delinquency rate. A n examination of the scatter of residual errors indicates that in this instance a free hand drawn curve might more adequately describe the relationship between home-ownership and delinquency in tracts with 6 0 % or more home-ownership. It is of interest to note that there are many more negative deviants. The sum of the negative deviants is also more than twice the sum of the positive deviants. W e therefore hypothesize that if a more adequate mathematical equation were derived to describe the true relationship between these two variables, that the accuracy of the delinquency prediction

GRAPH

III.

OWNERSHIP

R E L A T I O N B E T W E E N D E L I N Q U E N C Y AND

HOME

AFTER

HAVE

EFFECTS BEEN

OF

OTHER

ELIMINATED

VARIABLES

68

FURTHER

CORRELATION

ANALYSIS

would increase. H o w e v e r , the precision of prediction for a specific tract is not the primary purpose of this study.

How closely do the predicted values of the juvenile delinquency rate agree with the observed values? A f t e r h a v i n g derived equations by which the values of the dependent variable are predicted, it is desirable to measure the closeness with which such predicted estimates agree with the actual values (i.e., the actual delinquency rate). T h i s information is provided by the standard error of estimate. T h e standard error of estimate on the .05 and .01 significance levels is indicated on Graphs 2 and 3 by broken lines above and below the regression lines.

The Deviant Areas T h e standard error of estimate has another very important use in sociological research. It enables us to determine the deviant a r e a s — t r a c t s whose predicted delinquency rates are significantly variant f r o m the actual rates on the .05 or the .01 significance levels. T h e s e deviant areas raise the possibility that our

theory

derived from our statistical analysis m a y be inadequate; that perhaps additional factors that w e did not account for m a y be responsible for the significant deviation in these districts. T h e advantage

of this research design

is that it permits us to

e x a m i n e in greater detail the exceptional as well as the conf o r m i n g findings and the conditions which govern their appearance. Such investigation may add to the understanding

of the

differential delinquency rate and ultimately to the improvement of the prediction and control of juvenile delinquency. In the present study, there are 5 census tracts whose delinquency rates are significantly deviant on the .01 significance level. In 4 of these tracts, the actual delinquency rate is 5.3 percent higher than the predicted rate. T w o additional areas are significantly deviant on the .05 level. In these tracts the actual delinquency rate is 4.0 percent lower than the predicted rate. In four additional districts the deviations closely approach the

FURTHER

CORRELATION

ANALYSIS

69

.05 significance level. In these areas the actual delinquency rate is the lower

rate.

It is in the nature of statistical treatment of data that "statistically significant" deviations are expected to appear and, hence, it m a y be futile to try to explain all of the deviations. T h e foll o w i n g facts concerning some of the deviant areas are, however, highly suggestive of hypotheses which may be more thoroughly explored in future studies. Census T r a c t s 4-1, 4-2, 11-3 and 17-1 are characterized by delinquency rates significantly higher on the .01 level than the predicted rates. In T r a c t 1 7 - 1 , for example, the predicted delinquency rate is 1 1 . 8 ; the actual delinquency rate is 20.8. These tracts are in the city center, contiguous to each other and are zoned for commercial use. T r a c t 4 - 1 is Baltimore's central zone, the center of its department stores, theatres, night clubs, and hotels for transients. It is disorganized for residential use. In Baltimore, children under mately 2 6 %

18 comprise approxi-

of the population; in T r a c t 4-1, approximately

only 6 % . In the city at large, the female population is larger than the male g r o u p ; in T r a c t 4-1, the male population is more than twice as large as the female group. T r a c t 4-1 is characterized by the city highest proportion of single men and childless families. T r a c t 4-2 directly west of 4-1 is the site of L e x i n g t o n Market,

Baltimore's

largest

retail commercial

market.

m a j o r proportion of the city's cheaper hotels and

The

rooming

houses for the transient group is located in this district. In the past the city's oldest and largest vice district w a s found in this area. T r a c t 1 1 - 3 is a mixed commercial and residential district. T h e R i c h m o n d M a r k e t is situated within this tract. T r a c t 17-1 is the most markedly deviant area. It is characterized by a mixture

of

second-hand

retail shops and other

commercial

establishments, a large proportion of the hotels and r o o m i n g houses for N e g r o transients and Baltimore's "white-light" center for entertainment of its N e g r o population. T h e description of these areas lends support to the hypothesis that the area's delinquency rate is a function of the extent of

JO

FURTHER

CORRELATION

ANALYSIS

the anomie or instability characterizing its population, although it deals with this aspect of social organization in different terms than in any of the variables dealt with systematically in the present study. A r e a s that are inhabited by many

transients,

characterized by the presence or tradition of brothels and vice, a n d / o r disorganized for residential use by the concentration of commercial establishments, manifest as a consequence a significantly higher delinquency rate than would be predicted on the basis of a prediction formula utilizing the variables we h a v e already dealt with. In other words, if understanding

were our

only goal, the explanation of the deviations would act to support our hypothesis of the basic relation between anomie

and the

delinquency rate. If an improved prediction formula were our goal in the investigation, the analysis of these deviations suggest the inclusion of additional variables or measures. F u r t h e r exploration is necessary of the association between the presence of commercial concentrations and the otherwise unaccounted for deviations in the delinquency rate. T r a c t

22-1

is characterized by commercial concentrations and yet in this area the deviation is in the reverse. T h e actual rate is lower than the predicted rate. A similar pattern holds true in T r a c t s 13-1 and 14-1. It m a y be that wholesale commercial concentrations differ in their effects on the delinquency rate f r o m retail commercial establishments and especially from the centers of large retail markets. It will be pointed out later that the association between delinquency deviations and the concentration of industry is even less clear. In several of Baltimore's most industrialized zones, there is only very slight deviation and in some districts the predicted delinquency rates are higher than the actual rates. Census T r a c t

13-1

is the only tract in which the actual

delinquency rate is lower than the predicted rate on the .01 significance level. D u r i n g the study period, more than 9 0 % of this tract's population w a s Jewish. D u r i n g this period, v e r y f e w Jewish youths were registered on delinquency

petitions.

O f the more than 7,000 children seen by the court, fewer than 50 w e r e of Jewish background. It is also of interest to note

FURTHER

CORRELATION

ANALYSIS

J1

here that not a single Chinese child was brought to the Juvenile Court during the i 9 3 9 - 1 9 4 2 period. Studies in other cities have suggested as an explanation the stability and control exercised by the Chinese family. It is also important to note as an explanation of the deviation of Tract 13-1, the presence of large apartment buildings in this section—the Emersonian and Esplanade Apartments are instance in point. This feature is especially germane to the investigation of Tract 11-1 which is significantly deviant on the .05 level and closely approaches a significance on the .01 level. Tract 11-1 is located in Zone 1, immediately north of Tract 4-1. Tracts 11-1 and 11-2, neighboring tracts, formerly housed Baltimore's socially elite families. During the study period, a large proportion of Baltimore's doctors' offices were located in this neighborhood. Moreover, many large residence hotels and apartment buildings are located in this district. In Tract 1 1 - 1 , and to a lesser extent in Tract 11-2, the actual rate is lower than the predicted rate. W e suggest that these deviations point up the danger of imputing a causal significance to an index, per se, despite its statistical significance in a prediction formula. It is fallacious to impute causal significance to home-ownership as such. In the present study, the author hypothesizes that the extent of home-ownership is probably highly correlated with, and hence constitutes a measure of community anomie. O n this hypothesis, this particular index would be of limited value in New Y o r k City or in other areas of stability characterized by a large proportion of high rental apartment house residents as in parts of Tracts 13-1, 11-1, and 11-2. Another instance, of the inadequacy of the percentage of homes owner-occupied as a measure of community stability, is provided by Tracts 12-1 and 12-2. This is the center of the Johns Hopkins University community. The area is occupied by a large number of stable families and population groups, with a consistent and accepted consensus regarding delinquency, residing in apartment buildings and resident hotel. It is apparent that in such areas, which are rather exceptional in Balti-

72

FURTHER

CORRELATION

ANALYSIS

more, the index of home-ownership fails to that extent as an adequate measure of stability or

anomie.

T r a c t 22-1 provides another interesting instance of deviation. T h i s tract is situated within a zone contiguous to and south of the central business district. It is characterized by an important concentration of commercial establishments and light industry. It is a port district. Y e t , in this section the actual delinquency rate is considerably below the predicted rate. It is only 0.3 below the value that would be significant at the .05 level.

Interviews with old residents of this area and

other

competent reporters indicate that this neighborhood has been characterized by a residentially stable population. T h e inhabitants in this area have resided there for three generations and while there has been some migration out of the neighborhood there has been very little immigration into it. In T r a c t s 13-3 and 27-9, the actual juvenile delinquency rates are

4.3

and

2.2.

The

predicted

delinquency

rates are

8.1

and 6.1. T h u s , the deviations of 3.8 and 3.9 approach the .05 significance level ( 4 . 0 ) . Census T r a c t

13-3 is inhabited pre-

dominantly by N e g r o e s — 6 8 percent of its population is N e g r o . D r . W . T h u r b e r Fales, Director of the Bureau of V i t a l Statistics of Baltimore, reports that T r a c t s 13-3 and 13-1 are inhabited b y Baltimore's N e g r o upper classes and social elite. In the city at large, 2.5 per of the N e g r o e s and 6.5 of all classes in the labor force are employed as professional workers. In T r a c t 13-3, 8.1 percent of those w o r k i n g were doing so in the professional category. Additional evidence of the social stability of the N e g r o population in these areas is suggested by the fact that the N e g r o delinquency rate is one-third as large as the corresponding white rate. To what extent does the spatial (geographic)

distribution

errors of estimate

add to oar understanding

ential delinquency

rate?

T h e plotted residuals in M a p I I

of the

of the

(Appendix D )

differ-

describe

the differences between the actual and predicted delinquency rates. T h e y show the geographic distribution of the errors of

FURTHER

CORRELATION

ANALYSIS

73

estimate in predicting the delinquency rate f r o m the values of the n o n - w h i t e a n d h o m e - o w n e r s h i p variables and their c u r v i linear components. T h e point about the distribution is not only that it prov i d e s clues f o r the interpretation of the deviant areas, but t h a t its n o n - r a n d o m p a t t e r n i n g m i g h t t h r o w light on the significance of some factor or factors of w h i c h adequate measure had not been included in the study. T h i s technique m a y p r o v i d e an indication of f a c t o r s f o r w h i c h quantitative measures are not a v a i l able. Specifically, w e are concerned w i t h the f o l l o w i n g p r o b l e m s : 1. Is the spatial location ( g e o g r a p h i c )

of an area, per se,

in relation to its distance f r o m the city center a determinant of its delinquency r a t e ? Implicit in the B u r g e s s hypothesis of a typical land use pattern is the a s s u m p t i o n that space itself is a causal factor w h i c h determines the social systems and activities w i t h i n their territorial layouts, " a n d that a process of distribution takes place w h i c h sifts and sorts and relocates individuals and g r o u p s b y residence and o c c u p a t i o n . " 2. A r e

the

differential

delinquency

2

rates

a

function

of

c h a n g e s in land-use? T h e B u r g e s s - S h a w approach is posited on the assumption that an u n d e r s t a n d i n g of the w i d e v a r i a t i o n s that exist in u r b a n areas m a y be secured t h r o u g h a study of the processes of city g r o w t h . " S u r r o u n d i n g the C e n t r a l B u s i ness D i s t r i c t are areas of residential deterioration caused by the e n c r o a c h i n g of business and i n d u s t r y f r o m Z o n e i . T h i s m a y therefore be called a Z o n e in T r a n s i t i o n . In this area of physical deterioration a n d social d i s o r g a n i z a t i o n our studies s h o w the greatest concentration of cases of p o v e r t y , bad housing, j u v e n i l e delinquency, e t c . "

3

3. T o w h a t e x t e n t is j u v e n i l e delinquency a consequence of the presence of industry a n d / o r c o m m e r c e as s u c h ? I n the present study, w e h a v e not included a n y measure of the influence on the delinquency rate of such non-cultural variables as 2 Ernest W. Burgess, " The Growth of a City," in Robert E. Park, The City, University of Chicago Press, 1925, pp. 47-62. 3 E. W. Burgess, "Urban Areas" in T. V. Smith and L. D. White (editors) Chicago, An Experiment in Social Science Research, University of Chicago Press, 1929, pp. 114-123.

74

FURTHER

CORRELATION

ANALYSIS

propinquity to the city center a n d / o r change in land-use, per se. If either or both of these factors were significant or essential as such in the prediction a n d / o r understanding of the differential delinquency rate, it should be apparent in the distribution of the residual errors. T h a t is, the errors of estimate if correlated

with

a

non-quantitative

or

non-considered

variable

should serve to introduce a new variable or variables into the multiple regression analysis and thus help explain the unaccounted for errors of distribution. A n examination of M a p II

(Appendix D )

does not sup-

port the hypothesis that the spatial ( g e o g r a p h i c ) location of an area, as such, in terms of distance from the city center is of significance in the prediction and understanding of the delinquency rate. T h e r e is no systematic patterning or concentration of residual errors that would suggest the importance of physical space, per se, as a causal factor of delinquency. A s a matter of fact, within Zone i , as noted earlier, there are several tracts w h o s e actual delinquency rates are significantly lower on the .05 significance level than what w e would predict in terms of our prediction formula. It is also of interest to note that, in 14 of the 23 tracts located entirely or in large part within this zone, the actual delinquency rate is lower than the predicted rate. Furthermore, the areas of higher actual than predicted rates are not concentrated

in the innermost zones but are

distributed in a non-random fashion throughout the city. It is very difficult within the limitations of our data to evaluate the importance of change in land-use in the explanation of the distribution of the residual errors. A point could be made for the B u r g e s s - S h a w hypothesis on the basis of the several tracts a d j o i n i n g the central business district whose residual errors

indicate a

significantly higher

actual than

predicted

delinquency rate. T h e s e areas could be cited as suggesting the effect of the transition or change in land-use. O n the other hand, there are several tracts within the same geographic distance f r o m the central business district which are significantly deviant in the reverse. A n examination of the Residual M a p s

FURTHER

CORRELATION

ANALYSIS

75

also suggests that in the m a j o r i t y of the tracts a d j o i n i n g the central business district or its adjacent commercial districts, the residual errors indicate that the predicted delinquency rates, are as a matter of fact, higher than the actual rates. W e also possess no data which would suggest that the distribution of the residual errors in the other areas is associated with or is a function of changes in land-use in these districts. We

do not wish to dispute the possible importance of a

change in land-use in the understanding a n d / o r prediction of delinquency. Undoubtedly such changes m a y affect the social stability of an area's population and increase its anomie.

We

only suggest that the data of the present study do not support a hypothesis which gives this factor central importance in the explanation of the wide variation of the delinquency rate in v a r i o u s areas. M o r e o v e r , it seems to us, that it is reasonable to explain the significantly higher actual than predicted delinquency rates in T r a c t s 4 - 1 , 4-2, 11-3 and 17-1 in terms of the concentration of transient populations in these areas, numerous burlesque-type night clubs and cabarets, prostitution, and districts completely saturated w i t h retail commercial establishments and the effects of

these

factors upon the anomie

or

social stability

of

a

neighborhood. O n e does not need to refer to such a noncultural factor as the influence of physical space or geographic location as such or to posit change in land-use as the primary and central dynamism of the processes that lead to juvenile delinquency. T h e distribution of the residual errors does not adequately c l a r i f y the relationship between the presence of industry and the concomitant delinquency rate. In 11 of the 16 tracts in w h i c h less than 5 0 % of the area is zoned for industrial use, the actual delinquency rate is higher than the predicted rate. In these tracts the sum of the deviations is 14.7. In the other five tracts the sum of the deviations is 6.4. H o w e v e r , in 4 of the 7 tracts in w h i c h 5 0 %

or more of the areas are zoned for

industrial use, the predicted delinquency rate is higher than

76

FURTHER

CORRELATION

ANALYSIS

t h e actual.

B u t the s u m of these d e v i a t i o n s w h i c h is 4.1

is

s m a l l e r t h a n the s u m of the d e v i a t i o n s in the other 3 t r a c t s w h i c h is 6.5. T h e p r e s e n c e of c o m m e r c i a l e s t a b l i s h m e n t s a p p e a r s to a f f e c t t h e d e l i n q u e n c y rate to a g r e a t e r e x t e n t than the presence of industry.

T r a c t s 4 - 1 , the central business district, 4-2,

11-3

a n d 1 7 - 1 the m a j o r c o m m e r c i a l a r e a s in B a l t i m o r e are not o n l y the r a n k i n g d e l i n q u e n c y a r e a s but are also the r a n k i n g " d e v i a n t " a r e a s . T r a c t 2.2-1,

h o w e v e r , despite its c o n c e n t r a t i o n of c o m -

m e r c e is c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y d e v i a t i o n in the " w r o n g " direction. I t s p r e d i c t e d rate is h i g h e r t h a n the actual rate. W e h y p o t h e s i z e d a n e x p l a n a t i o n f o r this d e v i a t i o n in the p r e v i o u s section. Similar

deviations

in the d i r e c t i o n of h i g h e r predicted

than

a c t u a l r a t e s also c h a r a c t e r i z e of the 12 tracts w i t h c o m m e r c i a l c o n c e n t r a t i o n s . I n the m a i n , h o w e v e r , there is m u c h less c o m m e r c i a l c o n c e n t r a t i o n in these a r e a s . A l s o , the c o m m e r c i a l e s t a b l i s h m e n t s a r e of the w h o l e s a l e r a t h e r than of the retail v a r i e t y .

CHAPTER

VII

CONCLUSION To what extent can the statistical measures and their results help in understanding the differential juvenile delinquency rate? Our findings and their bearing on the understanding of the differential delinquency rate must be interpreted in the light of the statistical limitations outlined earlier in this study, as well as the additional following limitations: The statistical findings in themselves do not supply the answer to the causal basis of the differential delinquency rate, but do provide a map which if analyzed with care and caution, may suggest some directions and answers. They enable us to test and suggest hypotheses. Statistical techniques and their results are effective aids in the quest for understanding. At best, however, they provide only clues, and if used without caution may in many instances even be misleading. Methodologically, we have stressed in each stage of the study the very different conclusions we would have reached had we stopped earlier in our statistical analysis. In this monograph, we have dealt primarily with prediction, rather than with causation. With the exception of the factor analysis, our statistical techniques have primarily dealt with the discovery of the independent variables that are statistically significant in predicting the differential delinquency rate. Yet, even successful prediction does not guarantee understanding. Prediction is based on the description of a statistically significant concomitant relationship between two or more variables. It does not tell us why this relationship exists or what it represents. 1 Prediction and causation, while closely related, are separate 1 For fuller discussion see R. M. Maclver, Social 383.

Causation,

pp. 1S6-20S,

78

CONCLUSION

goals of sociological research. In a prediction study, we examine each factor in terms of how much it contributes to the variance of the dependent variable. In a causation study, our primary interest is not how much each factor contributes to the computation of a rate, but how the factors interact and are meaningfully related to differentials in the dependent variable. The statistical analysis of the data available to us has a static character. It provides a snapshot of a relationship frozen in time. Causation, however, is dynamic. A study of causation entails an examination of the interaction of forces and resistances in the social situation—and in the individual—as they make for the acceptance or rejection of the norms of society with regard to juvenile conduct. Professor Louis Guttman cites several examples of the fallacy of identifying the study of regression with the analysis of causation. He argues that, The absurdity of such interpretations, when based on no other considerations, can be shown in a number of ways. First, the regression coefficients may vary considerably with the insertion of one or more new variates into the regression or with the removal of one or more variates. There is nothing in the statistical theory as such which will explain such changes in terms of causation. Or consider the case where the Xj are linearly dependent. Then there is an infinite number of different sets of regression coefficients that will yield the same y'. There is nothing in the statistical theory as such which will select a particular set to be meaningful for the data.2 MAJOR

S T A T I S T I C A L F I N D I N G S AND T H E I R

INTERPRETATION

Housing The findings of this monograph confirm the many studies that have indicated a close correspondence between the delinquency rate and the housing characteristics of an area. In Baltimore, the zero order correlations between overcrowding, 2 Social Science Research Council, The Prediction ment, Bulletin X L I , N e w York, 1941, pp. 288-9.

of Personal

Adjust-

CONCLUSION

79

substandard housing conditions, and the juvenile delinquency rate are r = + . 7 3 and + . 6 9 . On the basis of similar zero order correlation coefficients, many investigators have argued that bad housing has a direct causal effect on the delinquency rate. The implication has been: " Remove the slums and you remove the social ills! " 3 More careful analysis however indicates the insufficiency of this interpretation. The fact that in ranking delinquency areas there is a frequency of overcrowding and bad housing does not in itself suggest a causal nexus to any greater extent than the frequency of tuberculosis or child mortality in these areas suggest these variables as causal bases of the delinquency rate. Furthermore, causation is not established unless we can indicate how the physical aspects of housing are related to the delinquency rate and why there is so much less delinquency in many rural areas or urban communities characterized in terms of our housing standards by primitive and very much substandard housing. It is germane to note here that several tracts, namely, Tracts 1-4 and 2-3 in which 84% or more of the homes are substandard, are not even included in the group of tracts comprising the first quartile of the ranking delinquency areas. In Tract 25-6, 98% of the housing is substandard, the median estimated or contract monthly rental of $11.81 is the lowest in the city, more than 80% of the area is zoned for industry, and the residential district is almost completely surrounded by heavy industry yet there are 25 tracts in Baltimore with higher delinquency rates. A s a matter of fact, in this study, the indices of partial correlation between overcrowding, substandard housing, and delinquency are reduced to zero when the other variables are held constant and their influence eliminated. Despite the high zero order correlation coefficients, the partial correlations suggest that there is no real or substantive relationship between the delinquency rate and the physical as3 John P. Dean, " The Myth of Housing Reform," The American Journal of Sociology, April 1949, pp. 271-88.

8o

CONCLUSION

pects of housing as such. T h e findings of the regression analysis in this respect are also amply confirmed by the factor analysis. O n the other hand, our regression analysis indicates that home-ownership is significantly associated even on the .01 significance level with the presence of juvenile delinquency. W e have hypothesized the frequency of home-ownership in Baltimore as a measure of community stability. The factor analysis also confirms the existence of a fundamental relationship between delinquency and social stability as measured by homeownership and the lack of such a relationship with housing as measured by its physical or economic aspects. Thus, the primary significance of housing in the understanding of delinquency is not in its physical aspects or merely in the area's economic position in the city which its rentals reflect, but primarily and fundamentally in its social aspects as a measure of or contributor to social stability or anomie. Other Socio-Economic

Variables

T h e zero order correlation between the median years schooling of a tract's population and its delinquency rate is r = ~ 5 i , and between median rentals and delinquency, r = -.53- T h e regression analysis and the factor analysis, however, clearly indicate that these variables are not fundamentally related to the prediction and/or understanding of juvenile delinquency. Our analysis deals with the varying area rates. It is in this context that we find that economic variables are not significant in the prediction and understanding of the differential delinquency rate. A s we have emphasized earlier these findings bear no necessary implication for a study of the prediction or understanding of the conduct patterns of a specific individual. The findings of this study do not gainsay the possible significance of any or all the variables studied as direct or indirect determinants of the behavior of individuals. Thus, one may well argue the hypothesis that poverty may compel the individual to live in the kind of community in which other factors con-

CONCLUSION

8l

ducive to delinquency operate. Presumably, however, if such variables as poverty do enter into the determination of individual behavior with respect to delinquency, they do so in different ways, for different individuals—i.e., the fact of poverty presumably has different significance and differing consequences for different individuals. Else one would expect them to show up significantly in the area statistics. Individual differences in response to such variables as poverty would tend to cancel one another out and, hence, to disappear in the area statistics. For an understanding of the total causal analysis of juvenile delinquency there is need for a study of the determinants of individual conduct as they operate in and interact with the social situation. Population

Composition

In Chicago and other American urban areas, Shaw found that high rates of delinquency characterized areas populated by large concentrations of foreign-born groups. This finding is not true for Baltimore. A s a matter of fact there is if anything an inverse relationship between delinquency and the presence of foreign-born groups. T h e zero order correlation, r = - 16, is significant on the .05 significance level. The 1903 Federal Slum Survey found delinquency concentrated primarily in sections populated by the foreign-born; in 1940, delinquency was a characteristic of areas inhabited by the native-born. In 1940, many of the foreign-born groups were well integrated culturally and economically into the Baltimore community and were characterized by a high degree of home-ownership and social stability. A t least two of these ethnic groups, the Jews and the Chinese, were characterized by almost a complete absence of any recorded delinquency. During the study period, it was the Negro, a native-born group, that contributed a large proportion of Baltimore's recorded crime and delinquency. During the 1939-1942 study period, Negro children comprised 4 9 % of Baltimore's delinquents although they only constituted approximately 2 0 % of the comparable age grouping in

82

CONCLUSION

the general population. In the regression and factor analysis the percentage of Negroes in a tract is significantly related to the prediction and understanding of the differential delinquency rate. On the basis of these analyses one might erroneously impute a causal significance to race per se. However, the following evidence amply supports the hypothesis that race as such is not a significant factor in the understanding of delinquency. T h e racial factor does not explain the wide variation in Negro delinquency rates. T h i s rate varies as widely as does the white rate, indicating large differences in behavior patterns that cannot be ascribed as an effect of race per se. It is also of interest to note that the N e g r o delinquency rate increases from 8 % in areas in which the Negro population concentration is less than 1 0 % of the total population to 13 and 1 4 % in tracts with 10-29.9 a n d 30-49.9 N e g r o population percentages. H o w ever as the N e g r o population concentration increases beyond 5 0 % , the N e g r o delinquency rate decreases to 7 % in areas with 9 0 % or more Negro population. Thus, in the areas with the greatest N e g r o population proportion, the N e g r o delinquency rate is lowest. A similar pattern of delinquency frequency also characterizes the white group in relation to the proportion of Negroes. T h e net regression line which describes the relationship between the presence of Negroes and the delinquency rate when the influence of the other variables is eliminated also indicates a similar pattern. A s the N e g r o proportion of the total tract population increases to 5 0 % , the delinquency rate increases. A s the percentage of Negroes increases beyond 5 0 % , the delinquency rate correspondingly decreases. Thus, when other factors are held constant, delinquency rates in Baltimore are highest in areas of maximum racial heterogeneity. In areas of total N e g r o occupancy the delinquency rate is no higher than in similar areas of total white occupancy. This does not necessarily mean that high rates of delinquency are inevitable in racially heterogeneous areas. It means simply that under the

CONCLUSION

83

conditions of racial heterogeneity found in Baltimore, such heterogeneity is associated with factors that effect an increased delinquency rate. T h e factor analysis suggests that, in Baltimore, the percentage of Negroes in an area is best viewed in the grouping of variables which define the anomic factor. T h e examination of the regression analysis, however, further suggests that the percentage of Negroes in an area is a curvilinear correlate of the anomic factor. Areas of maximum racial heterogeneity are characterized by the largest extent of social instability and anomie. In the areas of maximum Negro population concentration there is observable a corresponding increase of social stability and a decrease in delinquency. Furthermore, there are many areas in which the Negro delinquency rate is substantially lower than the corresponding white rate. In two tracts with a population of approximately 200 Negro juveniles there were no recorded cases of delinquency during the study period. T h e evidence cited amply demonstrates that N e g r o delinquency is not a function or effect of race as such but is a reflection of social instability. In sections characterized by anomie, the Negro delinquency rate is high; in areas of social stability, the Negro delinquency rate is of the same order as the corresponding white rate. Also, in Baltimore many Negroes, as a result of factors other than their race, are subject to the effects of anomie. The Concentric

Zone and Gradient

Hypotheses

M a n y studies of the distribution and etiology of delinquency and other social pathologies have been stimulated by and prepared within the framework of the Park and Burgess ecological hypotheses. Burgess, in his introduction to Shaw's Juvenile Delinquency and Urban Areas, finds confirmation of his theories in the data presented in this volume on the distribution of delinquency in Chicago and other American urban communities.

84

CONCLUSION

W e summarize below the findings of the present study which relate to these hypotheses. I. a ) T h e location of industrial land use sections in Baltimore does not conform to the B u r g e s s zonal hypothesis. T h e r e is no general tendency of heavy industry to surround or to be located near the central business district. A s a matter of fact, the most important industrial concentrations are found in the o u t l y i n g sections of the city. T r a c t s 25-5 and 25-6 which are almost completely zoned for industrial-use are located in Baltimore's outermost zones. It is also germane to note that important industrial concentrations are found in each of the zones that comprise the city of Baltimore. b ) T h e delinquency rates in or near several

industrial

areas are considerably higher than the city mean rate. T h i s is in conformity w i t h the B u r g e s s - S h a w hypothesis. Strikingly at variance with this hypothesis, however, is the fact that some of the city's lowest delinquency rates occur in or near industrial areas. A l s o , in the seven tracts in which the m a j o r land use or z o n i n g is industrial, the mean tract delinquency rate is lower than the city's delinquency mean. O n the other hand,

the

mean delinquency rate for the twelve tracts which are predominantly or in part zoned for commercial use is almost twice the mean for the city at large. c) A c c o r d i n g to the zonal hypothesis, the central business and industrial section is surrounded by the, zone in transition, or slum area which is characterized by the grestest frequency of delinquency, bad housing and poverty. T h e following concentric district is the zone of w o r k i n g m e n ' s homes. T h e findings of this monograph suggest that zones in transition f r o m residence to business and industry are not limited to the innermost zones but are also found in the city's peripheral districts. A l s o , that areas characterized by poverty, bad housing and w o r k i n g m e n ' s homes while frequently near the center of the city are found in every zone. Baltimore's lowest

rentals

and most substandard housing is found in W a r d 25 in the city's outskirts.

CONCLUSION

85

Furthermore, Baltimore's so-called " zone in transition," in the years 1939-42 contained districts w i t h very high delinquency rates, but also areas in which the delinquency rate is close to z e r o ; the wealthy or socially elite and the criminal or prostitute frequently living within a stone's throw

of

each

other. d)

S h a w allocates the central and basic role in the under-

standing of the differential delinquency rate to the " invasion " of residential neighborhoods by business and industry in the process of city growth. In this study w e have calculated and plotted the residual errors in order to analyse the significance of such factors of the delinquency rate, measures of which had not been included in the regressions equation. T h e e x a m i n a tion of the distribution of the residual errors indicates that in m a n y instances, especially in tracts a d j o i n i n g retail commercial concentrations, the higher actual than predicted

delinquency

rates m a y suggest the influence of actual or impending changes in land-use as a causal factor of the delinquency rate. O n the other hand, the m a j o r i t y of the tracts in the so-called " areas in transition " are characterized by predicted delinquency rates which are higher than the actual rates. In other w o r d s in the m a j o r i t y of tracts within the " zones of transition," there is n o evidence to suggest that the delinquency rate is a function of the " invasion " of industry or commerce. W e do not w i s h to deny the importance of changes in land-use in the understanding a n d / o r prediction of the delinquency rate. T h e " invasion " by industry or commerce of a residential neighborhood may, undoubtedly, in many instances weaken the social controls or consensus of the area and thus affect its delinquency rate. B u t our findings do not support a hypothesis which gives this factor the central role in the explanation of the differential delinquency rate. A s Professor R. M . M a c l v e r states, " Delinquency rates are correlated with other conditions and processes besides the invasion of residential communities by business and industry."

4

4 R. M. Maclver, op. cit., p. 379.

86

CONCLUSION

The findings of this study do support Shaw's thesis, " that delinquent behavior is related dynamically to the community and that because of the anyonymity in urban life, the individual is freed from much of the scrutiny and control which characterize life in primary group situations in small towns and rural communities" 6 But our findings do not support (at least in the case of Baltimore) Shaws hypothesis that the processes of city growth, as such, provides the basic explanation of a city's wide variations in delinquency rates. 2. a) A n examination of the zonal distribution rates superficially and in a general fashion supports the Burgess gradient hypothesis. Zone i is characterized by the highest delinquency rate. There is decrease—although it is not a regular one—in the delinquency rate with progression from Zone I to Zone 7. The delinquency rate is 10.2 in Zone 1, 6.1 in Zone 2, and then it declines precipitously to 2.7 in Zone 3. Beyond Zone 3, it remains substantially the same for the remaining zones. For the Negro group, the delinquency rates in Zones 6 and 7 are substantially higher than the delinquency rate in Zone 4 and a little higher than the delinquency rate in Zone 3. An examination of the distribution of delinquency rates by census tracts shows that the zonal hypothesis oversimplifies the actual pattern of delinquency distribution. Each zone includes high and low delinquency rate areas. Within Zone 1, for example, the delinquency rates vary widely; from a high of 20.8 to a low of 1.1. The emphasis on the study of delinquency by zonal rates also tends to obscure the more meaningful analysis of the mosaic of rates within each zone, the search for the explanation of the wide variation in the delinquency rates of contiguous areas. b) The Baltimore zonal areas cannot be designated as " natural areas." They are not characterized by a homogeneity of cultural and economic characteristics. Although low rental areas are found near the city center, they are by no means con5 Clifford R. Shaw, op. cit., pp. 435-8.

CONCLUSION

87

fined there but are found in every zone. A s noted earlier, some of Baltimore's lowest rental areas are found in the city's peripheral zone. In contrast, some of the city's highest rental districts are found in Zone 1. Similarly, with regards to the median years of schooling, in the inner zone are found tracts characterized by the city's highest and lowest educational medians. Census tracts 3-1 and 3-2 are characterized by populations with educational medians of 4.3 and 4.5 years. Tracts 11-1 and 11-2, immediately north of the central business district, are characterized by educational medians of 12.2 years. Only 7 of the 155 tracts which comprise Baltimore are characterized by populations with higher educational medians. The data of this study also indicate that we cannot apply to Baltimore the attempt by Burgess to designate the successive zones as the zone of transition, the zone of workingmen's homes, the zone of middle-class dwellers, and the commuters zone. Concentric zones in Baltimore are not characterized by any homogeneity in land-use. Workingmen's and middle-class homes are found in all zones. Industrial concentrations are not confined to the inner zones, but are also found in the so-called commuters zone. 3 ) W e find no support for the assumption that seems to be more or less tacit in the work of some ecologists that physical space or locale per se is an independent or causal factor in the predictions or understanding of delinquency. T h e examination of the distribution of the residual errors also indicates that there is no systematic patterning or concentration of errors of predictions on the basis of the variables we have found to be significant in Baltimore which might suggest the influence of a spatial variable per se on the delinquency rate. T h e analysis of delinquency in terms of its spatial distribution may nevertheless still be a valuable heuristic device in terms of Quinn's recommendation that, " In such studies the spatial distribution affords only a beginning clue that suggests critical problems of a nonspatial nature." 6 6 James A. Quinn, Human Ecology, N e w York, Prentice-Hall, 1950, p. 405.

88

CONCLUSION

4 ) The factor analysis based on the correlations among the variables indicates that there are two independent and underlying factors. This finding contrasts with Burgess' assumption of one general basic factor, namely, social disorganization of which delinquency, poverty, bad housing and tuberculosis are equally manifestations. The basic factors in our study are closely associated with each other but are nonetheless different in character. Our evidence indicates that " social disorganization " (we prefer the concept " a n o m i e " ) is perhaps a basic underlying factor of delinquency, but that this factor is not sufficient to account for a complex matrix of social interrelationships. A second, independently operating, factor is socio-economic in character. Summary

and

Interpretation

Our statistical measures indicate the importance of the fact that the surface associations between variables do not necessarily suggest fundamental or substantive relationships. The correlational and regression analyses suggest that the association between delinquency and poverty, bad housing, room density, propinquity to the city center, etc. are only surface relationships. The only variables that continued to be significant in the prediction of the delinquency rate when other variables are held constant are the home ownership and Negro population concentration indices. The factor analysis and additional statistical techniques described above, however, indicate the further danger of taking these variables in themselves as causal factors of the delinquency rate. The percentage of homeownership is not a necessary component of the explanation or understanding of the differential delinquency rate. Homeownership is an index of stability and the lack of home-ownership in an area does not in itself cause delinquency. Furthermore, in a city like New Y o r k City with many apartment houses areas, home-ownership may not even be an adequate index of a factor that is really significant.

CONCLUSION

89

In our search for the understanding of the differential delinquency rate, we suggest that the nearer the explanation of this social phenomenon is to the direct motivation of behavior, the nearer it is to being an adequate explanation of the deviant behavior. We hypothesize an explanation of the differential delinquency rate in terms of the concept of anomie. When the group norms are no longer binding or valid in an area or for a population sub-group, in so far is individual behavior likely to lead to deviant behavior. Delinquency is a function of the stability and acceptance of the group norms with legal sanctions and the consequent effectiveness of the social controls in securing conforming juvenile behavior. If our search for scientific understanding has led us to return to the beginning of the circle (our explanation may perhaps be interpreted as saying that delinquency is due to a breakdown or lack of respect for law and order—a sheer tautology), we hope nonetheless that it has thrown some light on the dynamics involved in the etiology of delinquency. After all, our breakdown of social norms is here seen in the interrelationships of a number of variables. Also, it is evident that a number of variables that appear to be significant are not actually so and are functionally not involved in the interpretation of the underlying factor of delinquency. The factor analysis indicates, and this finding is supported by our correlational analysis, that the delinquency rate is fundamentally related only to the anomie and not specifically to the socio-economic conditions of an area. The delinquency rate in a stable community will be low in spite of its being characterized by bad housing, poverty and propinquity to the city center. On the other hand, one would expect a high delinquency rate in an area characterized by normlessness and social instability. In such sections there is a deficiency in the traditional social controls which maintain conventional behavior in stable communities. Emile Durkheim was one of the earliest sociologists to suggest that a differential crime rate is a reflection of differential

90

CONCLUSION

degrees of social cohesion and the corresponding social control. Durkheim stresses that the breakdown of social cohesion frees the individual from the pressure of public opinion and the informal social controls which, in more solidary groups, operate to secure conformity to the norms of conventional behavior. 7 In a stable community a child is born and raised in a context of established norms which are supported by a social consensus. H e tends to interiorize these norms, and they contribute to the establishment of his psychological field of needs, goals and motivations. Generally, the child acts to satisfy his needs in a manner which has the approval of society. If he acts in a deviant fashion, formal and informal controls—including his own ego with its interiorized norms—act to deter the child from further deviant conduct. Unstable community conditions and the consequent weakening of social controls that are congruent with the dominant culture provide fertile ground for the emergence of variant norms and group standards. It is erroneous to conceive of high delinquency areas as being devoid of norms and group controls or standards. Sherif's " Psychology of Social Norms " , and the studies of Clifford Shaw and Frederic Thrasher indicate the existence of norms and standards in those areas. T h e controls and mores of a gang are highly regulatory of the behavior of its members. However, these norms may not be congruent with those of the larger society. A deeper understanding of the differential juvenile delinquency rate will necessitate further research on how community stability or instability is meaningfully and dynamically related to the differential behavior of various types of individual children. Community or situational factors ultimately influence the delinquency rate only as they affect the needs, values, goals and behavior of individual children. 7 E. Durkheim, Division of Labor in Society, translated by George Simpson, New York, The Macmillan Co., 1933, pp. 297-301.

A P P E N D I X

A

THE PEOPLE OF BALTIMOREYESTERDAY AND TODAY SINCE juvenile delinquency occurs in a specific neighborhood or community the characteristics of the population involved have their roots in the past. W h a t Baltimore is today is partially attributable to what Baltimore was yesterday. The first settlement on the site which later became Baltimore was made in 1662. In August 1729, Governor Leonard Calvert signed an act establishing Baltimore Town. In 1796, Baltimore was incorporated as a city, and in the following year it was divided into eight electoral wards. The boundaries of the city were definitely established by the A c t of the Legislature of 1816. The territory included 14.71 square miles of land and water surface. The Legislature in 1888 further enlarged Baltimore's boundaries to include 32.19 square miles, and in 1918 increased it to 91.38 square miles, of which 78.70 square miles were in land area. The territory within the 1888 boundaries is referred to as the Old City. It includes Wards 1 to 24 inclusive. The N e w City, comprising W a r d s 25, 26, 27 and 28, was created from the territory annexed in 1918. In 1851 Baltimore City was separated from Baltimore County and became an independent city, with no governmental relationship to Baltimore County. According to the Federal Census in 1790, Baltimore T o w n had 13,503 inhabitants. In the Census of 1800 (following the incorporation of Baltimore as a city, and the territorial annexations to the original settlement site) the population had grown to 28,514. In the 150 years, since the first census, the population of Baltimore grew from 13,503 to 859,100 in 1940. Despite these impressive figures, its growth was not as rapid as that of several other cities. In 1790, Baltimore was the third largest city in the United States on the basis of population. In the middle of

92

APPENDIX

A

the nineteenth century, it w a s second only to N e w Y o r k . In the latter p a r t of that century, B a l t i m o r e ' s population g r o w t h w a s outdistanced b y other cities, a n d in 1 9 2 0 it w a s eighth in s i z e ; in 1940, t h o u g h , it w a s a g a i n seventh. H o w e v e r , a c o m p a r i s o n of the populations of the cities and their metropolitan districts

1

places B a l t i m o r e t w e l f t h in rank. A f t e r it h a d reached a population of 500,000 a comparison of the g r o w t h of B a l t i m o r e w i t h that of nine other cities w h e n they had reached this population s h o w s that its rate of g r o w t h exceeded that of P i t t s b u r g h , w a s close to that of Boston, but w a s still decidedly s l o w e r t h a n that of N e w Y o r k ,

Chicago,

L o s A n g e l e s , D e t r o i t , C l e v e l a n d and Philadelphia. O f the first f o u r decades of the twentieth century, the ten y e a r period between 1 9 1 0 a n d crease

in B a l t i m o r e ' s

1920 m a r k e d the greatest in-

population.

The

increase

during

that

d e c a d e — w h i c h w i t n e s s e d a n almost threefold increase in a r e a — w a s 3 1 . 4 % . I n the subsequent t w o decades there w e r e increases of 9 . 7 % and 6 . 7 % ,

respectively.

B e t w e e n 1 9 2 0 a n d 1 9 3 0 the rate of increases f o r all 92 cities w i t h populations o v e r 100,000 w a s 2 5 . 7 % and for the

1930-

1 9 4 0 period, 5 . 0 % . C o m p a r e d thus w i t h the m a j o r i t y of other l a r g e u r b a n areas, B a l t i m o r e ' s population in the

1920-1940

period h a s remained m u c h m o r e stable. T h e B a l t i m o r e population pattern has u n d e r g o n e p r o f o u n d c h a n g e s since 1900. A n e x a m i n a t i o n of M a p I I I ( A p p e n d i x D ) indicates a m a r k e d decrease in population in the center of the city, w h i l e there is an even m o r e m a r k e d increase in the outl y i n g districts of the city. T h e greatest decreases are f o u n d in W a r d s 3, 4, 5 a n d 22. T h e s e are in the commercial

center,

in the light m a n u f a c t u r i n g zone, and a d j a c e n t to the

indus-

trial-use districts. B y Ward 24—which

contrast, it is of interest to note that

is a l m o s t entirely an industrial-use

area—

s h o w s a population increase. W a r d 25, another industrial-use area, is m a r k e d b y a still l a r g e r population i n c r e a s e — o n e of m o r e than

100%.

1 As defined in the United States Census of 1940.

PEOPLE

OF

BALTIMORE

93

A comparison of the population changes in the Old C i t y w i t h those in W a r d s 25, 26, 27 and 28 (the 1 9 1 8 annexed a r e a s ) points up the population trend to newer districts. Between 1920 and 1940, the population of the Old City increased 5 % ; that of the annexed areas, 4 9 % . T h e flow of population has not limited itself to the settling of newer districts in the city. D u r i n g the 1 9 3 0 - 1 9 4 0 period, alone, there w a s an increase of 2 9 . 9 % in the suburban area outside of the city proper, namely, in those districts designated by the Census as the Metropolitan Baltimore area. T h e greatest g r o w t h in the Metropolitan area centered in the T o w s o n district, with a population increase of 5 8 % . M a p I V ( A p p e n d i x D ) graphically describes the population changes by census tracts in the years 1930 to 1940. M a y III, on the basis of w a r d data, indicates the broad pattern of population changes. In contrast M a p I V , on the basis of the very much smaller and homogeneous areas comprised in census tracts, affords a

more perceptive

description

of the currents

and

counter-currents of the population stream. O f the 155 Baltimore census tracts, a total of 48 had population decreases between 1930 and 1940. A population decrease of more than 5 %

w a s recorded for 14 tracts. M o s t of these

tracts were located east or south of the central business district and in m a n y instances were adjacent to or near the waterfront. T h e population in 9 tracts increased more than 5 0 % . These areas are located in outlying sections of the city, especially in or near the territory annexed to the city in 1918. T h e sharpest i n c r e a s e — 4 6 5 % — w a s for Census T r a c t 27-9, the residential development of w h i c h w a s begun during the 1930—1940 period and has since continued. E i g h t areas, characterized by population increases of 2 0 % to 4 9 . 9 % and lying north and west of the central business district, present an interesting contrast to the general area pattern of population decline. D r . W . T h u r b e r Fales believes that the population increase in Census T r a c t s 1 1 - 1 and 11-2, just north of

the

business

district,

is partially

accounted

for

by

the

94

APPENDIX

A

influx of workers for the Social Security Board, and by employment in the defense industries in or near Baltimore. T h e other 6 tracts, with population increases between 2 0 % and 49.9% are situated northwest of the central business district and house the bulk of the Negro population of Baltimore. It is believed that a large portion of the Negro migrants to Baltimore in the 1930-1940 decade settled in these areas. Composition

of the

Population

In early Baltimore people of British extraction—English, Welsh and Scotch—made up the predominant bulk of the white population. According to the United States Census of 1790, the breakdown of the white population of Maryland, as determined by their surnames, were : English Scotch Irish German French Hebrew All other

84.0% 6.4% 2.5% 5.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2%

It is difficult to calculate accurately the proportion of any of the white stock in the early history of Baltimore. Until i860, the Census gathered no information on this point. H o w a r d 2 has however, estimated that in 1910 the following table represents the proportion of the population strains of the white population: In about a century the British strain had lost its preponderance and declined to about one-third of the total white population. T h e German, Irish, Jewish and Polish proportions increased many times. This came as the result of the influx of immigrants from Ireland and Germany, during the years 1830 2 William Travis Howard, Jr., Public Health Administration and the National History 0} Disease in Baltimore, Md., 1729-1900, p. 181.

PEOPLE

OF

T A B L E WHITE

POPULATION

STOCKS

TO T O T A L

Stock

1870,

Europe

WHITE

I

AND P E R C E N T A G E POPULATION,

Population

British German Irish Jewish Polish Bohemian Italian French All o t h e r s Total White Population to

STOCKS

95

BALTIMORE

OF

SPECIFIED

BALTIMORE:

P e r c e n t a g e of P o p u l a t i o n of S p e c i f i e d S t o c k to Total White Population

160,000 132,000 62,500 50,000 22,000 10,000 10,000 8,000 20,319

33.70 27.80 13.16 10.53 4.63 2.11 2.11 1.68 4.28

474,819

100.00

a s w e l l a s of t h o s e f r o m s o u t h e r n a n d who,

settled in

after

Baltimore.

1870,

migrated

1910

to the U n i t e d

southeastern States

and

A P P E N D I X

B

SOCIO-ECONOMIC VARIABLES AND HOUSING IN BALTIMORE W E present in this chapter the statistical analysis of each of the socio-economic variables studied, in relation to juvenile delinquency, as it appears in Baltimore and in terms of their spatial distribution and their inter-relations. It will then be possible to study more precisely their relationship to juvenile delinquency. W e also present data regarding these variables from other large urban areas in order to enable the reader to evaluate the similarities and differences between Baltimore and other areas in their socio-economic constellations. Comparable delinquency data for these urban centers are not available. Even if this information were available, its value would be very much limited because of the differences in administrative procedures. F o r example, in Baltimore it w a s customary during the period of the study, to bring almost all allegedly delinquent children to the Juvenile Court on official delinquency petitions. In N e w Y o r k City, the large m a j o r i t y of such cases are handled unofficially by the Juvenile A i d Bureau. In the present appendix, we shall be primarily concerned with the socio-economic characteristics and housing of Baltimore's population. In A p p e n d i x C, w e shall deal with the distribution of the N e g r o and foreign-born population groups and the association between the presence of these groups and the socio-economic variables previously discussed. T h e median number of school years completed by persons 25 years old and over is 7.9. Table II indicates that the native white population has received substantially more schooling than the N e g r o or foreign-born white group. It is of interest to note that the foreign-born white male is more educated than the N e g r o male and that in reverse the N e g r o w o m a n has received more schooling than the foreign-born white female. T h e data

SOCIO-ECONOMIC T A B L E MEDIAN RACE,

YEARS

SEX

AND

or

VARIABLES

SCHOOL

NATIVITY,

97

II COMPLETED BALTIMORE:

BT 1940

(Persons 25 years old and over)*

All Classes Native W h i t e Foreign-born W h i t e Non-white

Both Sexes

Male

Female

7.9 8.4 6.2 6.2

7.9 8.4 6.5 5.9

8.0 8.4 6 0 6.4

• T h i s and t h e following tables —unless otherwise noted —are based on d a t a derived from t h e reports of the Federal Census of 1940.

in this table also indicate that the N e g r o female received considerably more schooling than the N e g r o male. T h e Baltimore median of 7.9 school years completed

by

persons 25 years and older of all classes compares unfavorably with a national median of 8.4 and w i t h a median of 8.7 for cities with populations of 100,000 or more. O f the 95 cities in the United States with populations of 100,000 or more, there are only three cities with smaller median school years completed n a m e l y : Camden, N . J., N e w Bedford, Mass., and N e w Orleans, La. In 26 cities (including many southern cities) the median number of school years completed by persons 25 years and over is more than 9 years, and in 3 cities it is more than 11 years. Salt L a k e City, U t a h , ranks highest in the U n i t e d States with a median of 11.4. T a b l e I I I reveals how low Baltimore ranks with regard to the schooling of its adult population; even when comparing the education of this city's native white adults with similar groups in other large cities. O f the 14 cities with a population of more than 500,000 it ranks almost last. In contrasting the median y e a r s of education figures in Tables I I and I V , w e find, when w e break d o w n the statistics into separate rates for native white, foreign-born and N e g r o , that the pattern of a lower median years of education completed by these groups in Baltimore is much the same as that for the nation as a whole. Baltimore's median of 8.4 years of

APPENDIX

98

B

T A B L E III MEDIAN

YEARS

OF 5 0 0 , 0 0 0

OF S C H O O L C O M P L E T E D FOR I N H A B I T A N T S OR M O R E :

CITIES

1940

(Persons 25 years old and over) All Classes

City Baltimore Boston Buffalo Chicago Cleveland Detroit Los Angeles Milwaukee New York City Philadelphia Pittsburgh St. Louis San Francisco Washington, D . C .

Native White

Foreign-born

8.4 11.1 8.8 9.4 9.4 9.8 11.6 8.7 8.9 8.7 8.8 8.3 11.1 12.1

6.2 7.5 7.2 7.4 6.3 7.6 8.1 7.3 7.4 7.0 6.6 7.3 8.1 8.3

7.9 8.9 8.4 8.6 8.3 8.7 10.7 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.3 8.2 9.6 10.3

T A B L E IV MEDIAN RACE,

YEARS

SEX

OF S C H O O L C O M P L E T E D

AND N A T I V I T Y

FOR T H E

S T A T E S , U R B A N AND R U R A L — F A R M

BY

UNITED

AREAS:

1940

(Persons 25 years old and over)

UNITED STATES All Classes Native White Foreign-born White Non-white URBAN COMMUNITIES All Classes Native White Foreign-born White Non-white RURAL—FARM AREAS All Classes Native White Foreign-born White Non-white

Both Sexes

Male

Female

8.4 8.8 7.3 5.7

8.3 8.6 7.3 5.3

8.5 9.0 7.3 6.1

8.7 9.6 7.4 6.8

8.6 9.4 7.4 6.5

8.8 9.9 7.3 7.0

7.7 8.0 7.2 4.1

7.6 7.8 7.2 3.7

7.9 8.2 7.2 4.7

schooling f o r native white compares w i t h a national median of 8 . 8 f o r urban a n d rural areas, and a median of 9 . 6 for u r b a n areas. T h e figure of 6 . 2 median y e a r s of education for f o r e i g n b o r n in B a l t i m o r e c o m p a r e s w i t h a median of 7 . 3 y e a r s f o r the U n i t e d States, a n d a median of 7 . 4 y e a r s f o r urban centers.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

VARIABLES

99

The non-white median of Baltimore is larger than the national median for non-whites, but is smaller than the schooling of Negroes in other urban areas. The population with the least amount of formal schooling is found primarily in the Eastern District, W a r d s 1, 2, 3, 5, 6 and 19, east of the Fallsway and the central business district, and in W a r d s 17, 18 and 19, west and northwest of the central business district, and in Wards 22 and 21, south and southeast of the downtown section. Although the median years schooling of the white population in Baltimore is substantially larger than that of the Negro population group, there are many predominantly white population areas with low educational medians. Of the 11 wards previously enumerated, at least 7 have a small Negro population. They lie primarily east and south of the central business section. One of these sections, Census Tract 3-2, with a Negro population percentage of 3.5 is characterized by a median school years of education of 4.5. A n examination of Map V also suggests that the Burgess concentric zone and gradient hypotheses may represent a considerable oversimplification of the distribution of at least one of the socio-economic variables studied. In the inner zone are found both the highest and lowest educational level areas. Census Tract 4-1, which comprises the central business district, is characterized by an educational median of 8.9 years which is substantially greater than the Baltimore City median of 7.9. Census Tracts 3-1 and 3-2, comprising W a r d 3, represent the city's population group with the least amount of formal training with median school years education, respectively, of 4.3 and 4.5. In contrast Census Tracts 11-1 and 11-2 immediately north of the central business area, are each characterized by a schooling median of 12.2 years. There are only 7 tracts (out of a total of 155 census tracts studied) with populations who have received more schooling than that of tracts 11-1 and 11-2. Census Tract 27-9 possesses the most schooled population group in the city with a median of 12.8 years of education. The educational attainment of the population in a neighbor-

IOO

APPENDIX

B

hood is closely associated with its socio-economic status. In Baltimore, it is most closely associated with the median monthly rent. The coefficient correlation r = + . 8 9 indicates a highly substantial concomitance. T h e educational median is also closely associated, in an inverse fashion, with the concentration of substandard and overcrowded housing accommodations. It is of interest to note that although both the non-white and foreign-born groups are characterized by an educational median of 6.2 for persons 25 years and over their correlation coefficients vary significantly. Table V reveals a significant negaT A B L E CORRELATION COMPLETED

BETWEEN

BY P E R S O N S

AND C E R T A I N

OTHER

VARIABLES,

V

MEDIAN 25

SPECIFIED

BALTIMORE:

Specified Variable Median Monthly Rent Percentage Homes Owner-occupied Percentage Homes Overcrowded Percentage Dwelling Units Substandard Percentage Foreign-born Percentage Non-white

YEARS

YEARS

OF

OLD

SCHOOL

AND

OVER

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

1939-1942

Correlation Coefficient* (r) + .89 + .39 -.71 -.76 -.12 -.41

tive correlation (r = — . 4 1 ) between the percentage of nonwhites in an area and its median school years of schooling and a negative but not significant correlation (r = — . 1 2 ) between the percentage of foreign born in a tract and the educational attainment of the tract's adult population. The explanation lies in the stress that many immigrant groups, e.g. Russian Jews and Italians, place on the education of their children. A n examination of the scatter diagram reveals a curvilinear relation between the percentage of non-whites in a tract and the median school years of education. Also, that the Negroes in the areas highest Negro population concentration have more schooling than those of the areas in which Negroes comprise about their median percentage in Baltimore.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

VARIABLES

IOI

Median Monthly Rent In Baltimore the estimated owner-occupied dwelling units tract median monthly rent was rent of all tenement dwelling households was $18.71. 1

median monthly rent of all in 1940 was $32.61; the con$23.60. The contract monthly units occupied by non-white

A n examination of Table V I reveals that, in 1940, BaltiT A B L E CONTRACT UNITS,

VI

OF E S T I M A T E D

MONTHLY

WITH

RENT

MEDIAN

500,000

RENT

FOR A L L

BY T E N U R E ,

INHABITANTS

OR M O R E :

FOR

DWELLING

CITIES

OF

1940

Median Monthly Rent (Dollars)

City

All Dwelling Units

Owner Occupied

Tenant Occupied

Baltimore Boston Buffalo Chicago Cleveland Detroit Los Angeles Milwaukee New York City Philadelphia Pittsburgh St. Louis San Francisco Washington, D . C .

27.06 29.91 27.90 32.56 27.86 34.65 30.37 32.31 38.16 28.10 28.72 22.95 33.78 47.53

32.61 38.67 34.58 35.16 33.61 37.77 36.62 37.22 50.36 32.93 39.76 32.52 44.84 64.80

23.60 28.41 25.20 31.51 25.35 32.77 27.83 29.66 36.71 25.64 24.62 20.13 30.13 41.42

more tenants paid one of the lowest rents of the 14 largest cities in the United States. Baltimore's median estimated monthly rent for owner-occupied dwelling units was also the lowest in rank with the exception of St. Louis which ranked in last place. T h e lower rentals paid by Negroes do not adequately reflect the more substandard and older housing occupied by them. T h e increase of the Negro population and the housing discrimination against Negroes in Baltimore compel them to 1 T h e Federal Census does not provide any data on the median monthly estimated rent for non-white dwelling units.

I02

APPENDIX

B

live in overcrowded and substandard housing and to pay excessive rents. In 1941, the Health Department and Housing Authority of Baltimore City undertook a survey of the areas in which the large majority of low-rent dwellings were concentrated. T h e areas studied included all of W a r d s 2, 3, 5, 17, 18 and 19 and certain census tracts in W a r d s 6, 7, 8, 10, 4, 11, 14, 15, 16, 21, 22 and 23. These areas, located east and west of the central business district included 2 5 . 9 % of the total dwellings units in the city. Of the dwelling units occupied by non-whites in Baltimore, 8 4 . 1 % were located in the study areas studied. The following table indicates the distribution of monthly T A B L E FREQUENCY

DISTRIBUTION

OF

S T A N D A R D AND S U B S T A N D A R D MONTHLY

DWELLING

Total

CONTRACT UNITS

RENT, BALTIMORE:

All Occupied Dwelling Units Tenure and Monthly Contract R e n t

VII

MONTHLY

AND

RENT

OF

MEDIAN

1941

White Occupants

Non-white Occupant«

SubSubSubS t a n d - S t a n d - Stand- Stand- Stand- S t a n d ard ard ard ard ard ard

T o t a l Units Surveyed 1 2 , 0 3 0 3 , 5 5 1 8 , 4 7 9 1 , 8 1 8 3 , 2 3 5 1 , 7 3 3 5,244 Owner-occupied 2,071 1,161 910 840 767 321 143 Rental-occupied 9,959 2,390 7,569 978 2 , 4 6 8 1 , 4 1 2 5,101 Median R e n t $20.38 $29.36 $17.35 $26.37 $16.21 $31.94 $ 1 8 . 1 8

contract rents of standard and substandard housing for white and Negro groups. Negroes paid more than white persons for both types of accommodations. The median monthly rent for Negro occupants of standard housing was $31.94; for white occupants, $26.37; f ° r Negro occupants of substandard housing, $18.18; for white occupants, $16.21. Negro families also spend a much larger percentage of their incomes for rent than do comparable white families. Including all income groups, 2 6 % of Negro families spend 4 0 % or more of their total incomes for rentals of standard housing; 1 2 % spend 5 0 % or more. The corresponding figures for whites a r e : 1 0 % spend 40% or more of their incomes for rent, and

SOCIO-ECONOMIC 5%

spend 5 0 %

40%

VARIABLES

IO3

o r m o r e . O f the n o n - w h i t e g r o u p , 2 0 %

spend

or more f o r substandard housing, as compared to

10%

of the w h i t e g r o u p . T h e g r e a t e s t d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n the i n c o m e p r o p o r t i o n d e v o t e d t o p a y m e n t s of rent f o r s t a n d a r d h o u s i n g b y both races is f o u n d a m o n g those w h o s e a n n u a l f a m i l y incomes range between $ 6 0 0 and $ 1 , 4 0 0 . The

following

table

supplements

the a f o r e m e n t i o n e d

data

w i t h pertinent statistics. T A B L E PERCENTAGE CLASSIFIED

DISTRIBUTION ACCORDINC

SPENT

FOR

VIII

OF S I N G L E

TO I N C O M E

RENT

FAMILIES

AND

INCLUDING

COST

OF

ANNUAL

Percentage of Income Spent for Rent Including Utilities

All 3600 Income Under to 3600 2999

WITHOUT

PERCENTAGE

OF

LODGERS INCOME

UTILITIES

FAMILY

INCOME

91000 $1400 $2000 $3000 to to to or $1399 $1999 $2999 More

White Tenants Standard L e s s than 1 0 % 10-19.9% 20-29.9% 30-39.9% 40-49.9% 5 0 % or more Substandard Less than 1 0 % 10-19.9% 20-29 9 % 30-39.9% 40-49.9% 5 0 % or more

2.78 36.16 36.16 15.38 5.27 4.25 8.58 40.19 30.80 10.49 5.19 4.75

—

—

—

12.50 18.75 68.75

2.22 6.67 33.33 31.11 26.67

11.80 44.94 33.15 7.30 2.31

1.72 1.72 6.90 15.52 31.03 43.11

.72 12.95 37.41 26.98 15.47 6.47

1.97 36.03 47 16 13.10 1.09 .65

— —

1.29 33.91 52.36 10.30 2.14 —

5.19 57.11 34.09 3.16 —

3.82 67.51 24.84 2.55 0.64 0.64

18.52 74.07 5.56 1.85

23.20 66.92 7.60 1.14

67.74 30.65

—

.45

1.14

0.47 3.25 30.70 43.25 18.61 3.72

0.46 17.35 61.19 16.44 4.11 .45

0.96 56.73 37.50 2.88 1.92

1.35 25.77 44.98 20.27 5.50 2.12

3.96 48.66 39.18 6.36 1.56 1.28

11.18 68.32 19.88 .62

— —

— — —

1.61

Non-white Tenants Standard Less than 1 0 % 10-19.9% 20-29.9% 30-39.9% 40-49.9% 5 0 % or more Substandard Less than 1 0 % 10-19.9% 20-29.9% 30-39.9% 40-49.9% 5 0 % or more

.71 16.48 34.80 21.73 13.92 12.36

7.69 3.85 3.85 11.54 73.07

3.91 15.63 34.37 46.09

2.48 26.36 33.67 17.96 9.40 10.13

.79 3.16 7.37 12.63 20.00 56.05

.48 9.23 29.14 30.64 17.74 12.95

—

— —

—

—

91.67 —

8.33 — —

52.63 47.37 — —

—

—

—

—

104

APPENDIX

B

A study of Map V I also indicates that the primary centers of very low rentals, i.e., $ 1 5 a month or less, are located east, west and south of the central districts—in Wards 2, 3, 5 and 22, and in Census Tracts 4-2, 24-1 and 25-6. These districts are populated predominantly by white persons. A s indicated earlier, Negroes pay more than white persons for similar housing accommodations. The centers of Negro population are thus characterized by higher median monthly rentals. A n examination of Map V I also suggests that although low rental areas are generally found near the center of the city, they are by no means confined there, but are found in every zone. Furthermore, in Census Tracts 1 1 - 1 and 1 1 - 2 immediately west of the central district are found some of the highest rental districts of the city. T A B L E , CORRELATION CERTAIN

BETWEEN

OTHER

SPECIFIED

M e d i a n Year« of School Completed Percentage Homes Owner-occupied Percentage Overcrowding Percentage Homes Substandard Percentage Non-white Percentage Foreign-born

MONTHLY

RENT

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

BALTIMORE:

Specified Variable

IX

MEDIAN

AND

VARIABLES

1940

Correlation Coefficient (r) + .89 + .47 -.68 -.73 -.34 -.13

Table I X reveals that the median monthly rent of a district is most highly associated with the schooling of its inhabitants. A high degree of inverse correlation also exists between median rentals, the percentage of substandard housing and the extent of overcrowding. These high correlation coefficients are to be expected. These variables are all indices of economic status and are highly intercorrelated with one another. A s further evidence of the high degree of intercorrelation among these variables, the correlation between education and overcrowding is — . 7 1 ; between education and substandard hous-

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

VARIABLES

IO5

ing, — . 7 6 , and between substandard housing and overcrowding, + . 8 6 . Age of

Housing

Table X points up the comparison between the median age of dwelling units in Baltimore and other cities with populations of 500,000 or more. With the exceptions of Boston and Pittsburgh, Baltimore's median age of 36 years ranks it as the city with the oldest housing. It also contrasts with a median age of 26 years for dwellings in the United States. Almost 1 0 % of Baltimore's dwelling units were built before the Civil W a r , and 4 4 % were built prior to the turn of the century. T A B L E MEDIAN UNITED

STATES

ACE

AND C I T I E S

Area

X

OF D W E L L I N G S

OF 5 0 0 , 0 0 0

IN

OR M O R E

THE POPULATION:

1940

M e d i a n Age of Dwellings

United States Baltimore Boston Buffalo Chicago Cleveland Detroit Los Angeles Milwaukee New York City Philadelphia Pittsburgh S t . Louis San Francisco Washington, D . C .

26.2 35.9 37.2 32.7 28.8 25.3 19.4 16.8 31.0 23.1 35.2 36.7 33.6 23.2 21.6

Map V I I (Appendix D ) graphically portrays the large preponderance of dwelling units in the central districts of Baltimore which were built prior to 1900. A comparison of this map with Map X I I indicates that the areas of Negro population concentration are characterized by a larger percentage of homes built before 1900. Percentage

oj Homes

Owner-occupied

Baltimore resembles Philadelphia more than any other city in the great prevalence of two-story row houses, and the high

io6

APPENDIX

B

frequency of home-ownership. Of the 93 largest American cities, only 11 have a greater percentage of home-ownership. Table X I shows that Baltimore's proportion of owner-occupied homes is the greatest of all cities with a population of 500,000 or more. TABLE PERCENTAGE

OF D W E L L I N G

C I T I E S OF 5 0 0 , 0 0 0

XI

UNITS OWNER-OCCUPIED

I N H A B I T A N T S OR M O R E :

City

Per Cent

Baltimore Boston Buffalo Chicago Cleveland Detroit Los Angeles Milwaukee New York City St. Louis San Francisco Washington, D . C . Philadelphia Pittsburgh

40.8 20.9 32.2 24.3 33.2 39.2 33.7 32.2 15.8

FOR

1940

26.8

31.3 29.9 38.9 32.2

A n examination of Map V I I I (Appendix D ) reveals that the greatest percentage of home-ownership is located in the outlying and suburban residential areas; the smallest is found in and adjoining the central business district. Census Tracts 9-2 and 27-2 rank highest among the census tracts in percentages of home-ownership, namely, 7 7 . 6 % and 7 4 . 8 % , respectively. Census Tract 9-2, located northwest of Lake Montebello, is one of the finest of Baltimore's residential areas. The median monthly rental for this neighborhood is $68.54. Census Tract 27-12, located in the Homeland Area, ranks still higher in the distribution of median rentals. Its monthly median rental is $90.87. The smallest percentages of home-ownership are found in Census Tracts 19-1 and 18-1, with respective owner occupancy rates of 4 . 5 % and 5 . 3 % . Their median rentals are $18.24 and $20.55—far below the median rental of Baltimore. Both tracts adjoin the central business district. Table X I I indicates the highest concomitance between the

SOCIO-ECONOMIC T A B L E

VARIABLES XII

C O R R E L A T I O N B E T W E E N P E R C E N T A G E OF D W E L L I N G U N I T S AND

CERTAIN

OTHER

SPECIFIED BALTIMORE:

Specified Variable Median Years of School Completed Median M o n t h l y R e n t Percentage Overcrowding Percentage Dwelling Units S u b s t a n d a r d Percentage N o n - w h i t e Percentage Foreign-born

I07

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

OWNER-OCCUPIED VARIABLES

1940

Correlation Coefficient (r) + .39 + .47 -.72 -.67 -.76 + .12

percentage of Negroes and the lack of home-ownership. This should not be interpreted to indicate that white persons are more prone to own homes, but rather that neighborhoods with a low economic status are characterized by a comparative infrequency of home ownership. A n examination of the scatter diagram substantially points up the limitation of assuming linear regression as best describing a relationship between two variables. In areas where the home ownership rate ranges from 4 0 % to 4 5 % , the median rentals range from $20 to $30. A n increase in home-ownership is related to an equivalent rental increase. However, a decrease in home ownership from 40% to 8 % is not associated with an equivalent decrease in median rentals. Overcrowding With the exceptions of Buffalo, San Francisco, Cleveland, Milwaukee and Philadelphia, Baltimore suffers less from housing overcrowding than any other city with a population of 500,000 or more. The following table evidences this fact. In 3.5% of Baltimore's dwelling units, the occupancy rate is 1.51 persons or more per room. The national percentage for all urban centers is 5.7%. For a total of 91 cities with 100,000 or more inhabitants the percentage of overcrowding is 5 . 7 % . The Room Density Map (Map I X , Appendix D ) indicates that the areas of great room density are not located solely in the center of Baltimore. They are found primarily in three locations : Wards 2 and 3, the Port Area and the Negro population

io8

APPENDIX T A B L E PERCENTAGE 1.51

OF T O T A L

OR M O R E

OF 5 0 0 , 0 0 0

B

XIII DWELLING

PERSONS

PER

INHABITANTS

ROOK OR

UNITS

WITH

FOR

CITIES

MORE:

1940

City

Per Cent

Baltimore Boston Buffalo Chicago Cleveland Detroit Los Angele« Milwaukee New York City Philadelphia Pittsburgh St. Louis San Francisco Washington, D . C .

3.5 3.9 2.0 5.8 3.1 3.6 3.9 3.5 4.5 3.1 9.4 9.9 2.4 8.5

centers, and Ward 26, adjoining the industrial areas. Table X I V underlines the close association between overcrowding and other indices of socio-economic status. The correlation coefficient + . 8 6 between homes that are overcrowded TABLE CORRELATION (WITH

BETWEEN

1.51

OR

SPECIFIED

PERCENTAGE

MORE

PERSONS

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

Specified Variable Median Years of School Completed Median Monthly Rent Percentage H o m e Owner-occupied Percentage Homes Substandard Percentage Non-white Percentage Foreign-born

OF PER

XIV DWELLINGS ROOM)

AND

UNITS

OVERCROWDED

CERTAIN

VARIABLES, BALTIMORE:

OTHER

1940

Correlation Coefficient (r) -.71 -.68 -.72 + .86 + 69 -.01

and those that are substandard is especially high. This table also indicates a high degree of significant association between overcrowding, the schooling of the population, rentals paid, percentage of Negroes in an area, and the percentage of homes owner-occupied. The association with the foreign-born index is not statistically significant.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

VARIABLES

IO9

Table X V furnishes the correlations between overcrowding and other socio-economic indices for Negro groups in areas where Negro populations are concentrated. T A B L E CORRELATION OTHER POPULATION

BETWEEN

SPECIFIED CENSUS

PERCENTAGE

X V OF OVERCROWDING

SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRACTS

WITH 2 5 0

Specified Variable Median Years of School C o m p l e t e d Median M o n t h l y R e n t Percentage Homes Owner-occupied Percentage H o m e s S u b s t a n d a r d

VARIABLES OR MORE

AND

OF T H E NEGRO

CERTAIN

NECRO POPULATION

Correlation Coefficient (r) -.21 -.10 -.02 + .14

The contrast provided between Table X I V and Table X V suggests the effects of segregation. In Table X V one finds, as is to be expected, high negative correlations between overcrowding and the median rent, the percentage of homes owneroccupied, and the median years of education completed in an area. These variables serve as indices of the economic conditions of a census tract. Also, a positive concomitance is recorded between overcrowding and homes needing major repairs. In Negro areas, however, equally high incidences of overcrowding are found in sections of higher economic and lower economic status. Substandard

Housing

Almost 30% of Baltimore's dwelling units are substandard —as determined by the need for major repairs, or the lack of private baths. Of the city's inhabitants, 1 9 % live in neighborhoods in which 50% or more of the homes are substandard. Of the cities with populations of 5 0 0 , 0 0 0 or more, only Pittsburgh and St. Louis possess a greater percentage of substandard housing. The following table compares Baltimore's housing characteristics with 1 4 cities with 5 0 0 , 0 0 0 or more inhabitants. A review of Maps X, XI, and X I I (Appendix D ) indicates that the greatest percentage of substandard housing is found

Ilo

APPENDIX T A B L E STATE IN

CITIES

OF R E P A I R S WITH

AND

500,000

XVI PLUMBING

INHABITANTS

Percentage Needing M a j o r Repairs

City Baltimore Boston Buffalo Chicago Cleveland Detroit Los Angeles Milwaukee New York City Philadelphia Pittsburgh St. Louis San Francisco Washington, D.C.

B

EQUIPMENT OR

MORE:

1940

Percentage with N o Private B a t h

Percentage Needing M a j o r Repairs or N o Private Bath

24.6 15.5 13.6 17.2 13.9 10.3 9.1 19.5 9.7 14.2 40.5 29.5 10.3 17.8

28.8 21.9 18.0 22.5 18.1 14.9 11.8 22.2 13.7 18.5 43.5 31.4 15.2 18.7

9.2 10.1 6.4 8.2 6.4 6.2 3.8 4.6 6.0 6.7 8.1 5.4 4.8 2.7

in the N e g r o populated centers. T h e r e a r e several exceptions. T h e poorest h o u s i n g in the city is f o u n d in C e n s u s T r a c t 2 5 - 6 , an industrial area in the districts a n n e x e d to B a l t i m o r e in 1 9 1 8 . I n this district 9 8 %

of the h o m e s a r e substandard. Of a total

of 4 1 6 dwelling units, only 1 2 h a d toilet facilities inside the structure. O f the 1 0 n e i g h b o r h o o d s w i t h the greatest percenta g e of

substandard housing,

5

w e r e in W a r d s

1, 2 a n d

southeast B a l t i m o r e — t h e P o r t D i s t r i c t of the city. W i t h

3, the

exception of C e n s u s T r a c t 3 - 2 , the occupants of these t r a c t s a r e almost 1 0 0 % Table X V I I

white.

indicates a n e g a t i v e correlation between T A B L E

CORRELATION AND

CERTAIN

OTHER

BETWEEN

XVII SUBSTANDARD

SPECIFIED

HOUSING

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

Specified Variable Median Years of SchoolCompleted Median Monthly Rent Percentage Overcrowding Percentage Owner-occupied Percentage Non-white Percentage Foreign-born

VARIABLES

Correlation Coefficient (r) -.76 -.73 + .86 -.67 + .58 + .07

sub-

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

VARIABLES

III

standard housing, education, rent, and percentage of homes owner-occupied; and a positive concomitance with overcrowding and the percentage of Negro population. The correlation between substandard housing and percentage of foreign-born is not statistically significant.

A P P E N D I X

C

THE NEGRO AND THE FOREIGNBORN IN BALTIMORE BALTIMORE has a population made up of many diverse ethnic or racial groups (races and nationalities), of which the N e g r o group is the largest. In 1940, it comprised 19.4% of the population. In 1945, according to the State Planning Commission, Baltimore had a Negro population of approximately 190,000 or about 21 % of the total population. In a sense Baltimore is a bridge between the North and South. T h e N e g r o and foreign-born percentages illustrate Baltimore's peculiar position. T h e proportion of Negro population is not as large as that found in any city of the South, yet it is larger than in any city of the North with a population of 100,000 or more. Conversely, the foreign-born population percentage is larger than that of any southern city, but smaller than that of any northern city with a population of 100,000 or more. The accompanying table brings out the comparison between TABLE SIZE

AND

PERCENTAGE OF 5 0 0 , 0 0 0

City Baltimore Boston Buffalo Chicago Cleveland Detroit L o s Angeles Milwaukee New York City Philadelphia Pittsburgh S t . Louis San Francisco Washington, D . C .

XVIII

OF N O N - W H I T E INHABITANTS

Negro Population 165,845 23,679 17,694 277,731 84,504 149,119 63,774 8,821 458,444 250,880 62,216 108,765 4,846 187,266

OR

POPULATION MORE:

FOR

CITIES

1940

Percentage of T o t a l Population

Other Races

19 3 3 8 10 9 4 2 6 13 9 13 1 28

552 1,671 589 4,513 415 1,877 34,073 474 19,050 1,877 207 489 26,989 1,499

Percentage of T o t a l Population 6 22 10 13 5 10 226 8 26 6 3 6 426 23

NEGRO A N D

FOREIGN-BORN

II3

Baltimore and other large urban areas of 500,000 and more inhabitants. It indicates that with the exception of Washington, D. C., Baltimore possesses the largest proportionate Negro population. Since its early history, Baltimore has had many Negroes. In 1790 there were 1578 Negroes in Baltimore, comprising approximately 2 1 % of the total population. In 1940 the Negro population had decreased to 1 9 % of the total. The high mark of Negro concentration was in the first four decades of the nineteenth century, when it reached more than 20%. In 1820 it was close to 2 4 % of the population. For about the next century the Negro percentage declined as the immigration of foreign-born increased. The Negro percentage hovered around 1 5 % of Baltimore's population. Between 1930 and 1940 Baltimore's population increased by 54,226 persons, or 6.7%. Of this population increase for Baltimore City, 23,681 were non-whites. The city's white population increase was 4.6%; that of the non-white population was 16.7%. The natural excess of births over deaths accounted for 51.8% of the increase of the white population and 14.9% of the increase of the non-white population. Between 1920 and 1930 there was an even more marked contrast between the Negro and white increases. During this decade the Negro population increased 31.2%, or five times the 5.9% increase of the white population. Thus, it is obvious that the Negro migration to Baltimore in the 1920-1940 decades has been much more pronounced than that of the white population. Table X I X shows the changing distribution of the Negroes during the last four decades. Although the Negro population in Baltimore was more than doubled during this period, there are several wards that suffered a decline in population; namely, Wards 1, 2 and 4. Wards 1 and 2 comprise and adjoin the waterfront section and Ward 4 comprises the central business districts. The Negro population has increased more than 100% in Wards 7, 8, 9, 10, 13, 14, 15, 16, 18 and 19. The first 4 sections lie to the northeast of the city center; the latter areas

114

APPENDIX

C

TABLE XIX NUMBER OF NON-WHITES BY WARDS BALTIMORE: 1 9 0 0 - 1 9 4 0

City Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

79,260 319 592 1,615 5,139 5,207 2,518 2,440 592 833 2,781 7,001 4,304 733 5,685 4,511 4,391 11,125 4,239 3,210 553 2,682 6,322 2,449 19

84,749 180 364 1,624 4,119 5,350 2,839 2,768 1,156 1,095 3,160 6,673 4,523 604 8,392 6,473 4,852 12,738 4,498 2,652 643 2,774 4,958 2,327 17

108,322 162 303 1,842 4,705 6,540 3,316 5,038 1,643 1,502 3,450 7,010 4,775 648 12,572 7,879 6,294 15,684 5,584 4,240 845 2,704 4,941 2,516 40 1,804 571 1,582 131

142,106 116 229 2,637 4,489 6,913 4,381 8,256 1,792 1,220 6,476 7,026 4,498 4,055 15,392 9,795 17,387 14,559 9,384 7,237 738 2,779 4,940 2,632 28 1,951 806 2,315 67

165,843 58 147 2,514 3,749 7,783 4,551 10,295 4,282 2,039 7,842 6,778 4,979 4,903 17,859 10,933 20,096 18,123 11,633 9,574 780 3,047 5,729 3,204 4 1,737 793 2,347 62

lie to the west and northwest of the central business district. Despite the fact that almost 2 0 % of the total population of Baltimore is non-white, Table X X indicates that more than 1 0 8 of the 1 5 5 census tracts (or approximately 7 0 % of the tracts) contain less than a 5 % Negro proportion of their total population. Of these 108 census tracts, 79 contain less than a 1 % Negro population. This Negro population distribution suggests the effects of segregating the Negro. M a p X I I (Appendix D ) shows that the Negroes are concentrated mainly in W a r d s 5, 7 and 10, east of the Fallsways and Jones Falls, and in Wards 14, 16, 17, 18 and 19, in the northwest area of Baltimore. These sections are inhabited by more than 6 0 % of Baltimore's Negro population.

NEGRO

AND

FOREIGN-BORN

TABLE

115

XX

DISTRIBUTION OF NEGRO POPULATION PERCENTAGES BY CENSUS TRACTS IN BALTIMORE: 1 9 4 0 P e r c e n t a g e of Negro Population

N u m b e r of Census Tracts

P e r c e n t a g e of Total Census Tracts

04.9 59.9 10- 19.9 20- 29.9 30- 39.9 40- 4 9 . 9 50- 59.9 60- 69.9 70- 79.9 80- 89.9 90-100.

108 3 7 6 3 4 5 4 3 5 7

69.8 1.9 4.5 3.9 1.9 2.6 3.2 2.6 1.9 3.2 4.5

TABLE

XXI

PERCENTAGES WHITE AND NEGRO FAMILIES BY ANNUAL WAGE OR SALARY INCOME, BALTIMORE: 1 9 4 0 0-31499 56 83

White Negro

$1500-31999

32000-32499

32500-32999

22

9 33000-34999

3 5 0 0 0 and o v e r

Not Reported

3

White Negro

0

In 1940, only 16 c/o of the N e g r o families earned, through w a g e s or salaries, a total annual family income of $ 1 5 0 0 or m o r e ; of the white population, approximately 4 1 % earned such annual

incomes. A p p r o x i m a t e l y

10%

of the white

families

received w a g e or salary incomes of $3000 or m o r e ; only 2 % of the N e g r o families received similar incomes. In 1940, 4 % work

or

of the white population were either seeking

receiving employment

through

Public

Emergency

W o r k ; 1 2 % or a threefold percentage of Negroes were found in similar categories. T h e contrast between the economic lives of white persons and those of N e g r o e s is further underlined by comparative figures

of women classified as homemakers, w h o are gainfully

n6

APPENDIX

C

employed. Of the white women, 1 2 % are so employed—as against 49% of the Negro women. TABLE CORRELATION CERTAIN

BETWEEN

OTHER

XXII

PERCENTAGE

SPECIFIED

NON-WHITE

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

BALTIMORE:

AND

VARIABLES

1940

Specified Variable Median Year« of School Completed Median Monthly Rent Percentage Over-crowding Percentage Home owner-occupied Percentage Homes Substandard Percentage Foreign-born

-. + -. + -.

41 34 .69 76 .58 32

Table X X I I indicates a positive association between a large Negro population percentage and a large percentage of overcrowding, substandard housing and a negative correlation between the percentage of Negroes and homes owner-occupied, education, median monthly rent and foreign-born. Our examination of the scatter diagram has indicated that the correlation between the percentage of non-white and median monthly rent is curvilinear. In areas where one finds the highest percentage of Negroes, one does not find an equivalent decrease in rentals. A s a matter of fact, the reverse is true. A similar curvilinear relationship is found in the correlation between percentage non-white and median number of school years. Foreign-Born in Baltimore Among the 93 American cities with a population of 100,000 or more, Baltimore ranks twenty-third in its percentage of foreign-born. Baltimore foreign-born population proportion of 7 . 1 % is below the national average, which is 8.7%. An examination of Table X X I I I indicates that with the exception of Washington, D. C., Baltimore has the smallest percentage of foreign-born residents of the 14 cities with 500,000 or more inhabitants.

NEGRO

AND

FOREIGN-BORN

TABLE

II7

XXIII

PERCENT OF WHITE POPULATION FOREIGN-BORN FOR CITIES OF 5 0 0 , 0 0 0 INHABITANTS OR MORE: 1940 City

P e r c e n t a g e of T o t a l Population Foreign-born

Baltimore Boston Buffalo Chicago Cleveland Detroit Los Angeles Milwaukee New York City Philadelphia Pittsburgh St. Louis San Francisco Washington, D . C .

7 23 16 20 20 20 14 14 28 15 13 7 21 5

TABLE

XXIV

NUMBER AND PERCENTAGE OF NATIVE-BORN AND FOREIGN-BORN WHITE POPULATION, BALTIMORE: 1 9 0 0 - 1 9 4 0

Year 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940

Since

Native--born Number Percentage 440,337 481,442 649,905 730,464 631,736

86.6 76.0 89.0 91.0 92.9

Foreign-born Number Percentage 68,600 77,043 83,911 74,410 70,969

13.4 14 0 11.0 9.0 7.1

1900 the number of percentage of foreign-born

in

Baltimore has continued to decrease. In 1900 the foreign-born element numbered 68,600, and comprised 1 3 . 4 % of the total white population; by

1940 it had decreased to 60,969 and

accounted for only 7 . 1 % of the white population. T h i s population decrease is in line w i t h the national decrease of foreignborn Americans,

which

resulted

f r o m the effect of

federal

legislation limiting the flow of immigration into the United States. T a b l e X X V points to the great changes in the distribution of foreign-born individuals which has occurred between the

I l8

APPENDIX TABLE

C

XXV

NUMBER OF FOREICN-BORN WHITES BY WARDS BALTIMORE: 1 9 0 0 - 1 9 4 0 Year City Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

68 600 3,693 4,581 8,599 4,025 5,216 3,056 3,452 2,973 1,706 3,249 1,685 1,138 1,231 1,227 1,323 1,153 1,449 2,039 1,715 3,196 2,359 3,252 2,334 3,049

77,043 3,941 6,873 10,952 3,647 6,959 4.396 4,301 2,955 1,625 2,989 1,655 1,394 1,610 1,804 1,882 1,154 1,187 1,961 2,004 3,697 2,037 2,927 1,696

83,911 6,080 6,121 7,873 2,416 4,613 5,594 4,609 2,60S 1,689 2,711 1,344 1,614 3,256 1,495 3,596 1,558 846 1,900 1,742 3,837 1,509 2,362 1,152

3.397

3,017 2,708 4,961 2,212 498

74,410 5,001 4,115 3,850 1,268 1,864 1,511 3,171 2,834 2,088 1,727 776 1,816 3,337 752 9,775 1,318 433 1,182 1,322 3,561 1,124 1,100 681 2,191 2,352 5,566 5,778 917

60,969 3,576 2,988 2,693 1,040 993 3,368 2,390 2,274 1,819 910 766 1,536 3,215 661 9,968 1,179 266 830 1,016 2,703 832 731 433 1,299 1,733 4,749 6,003 986

years 1 9 0 0 and 1940. In 1 9 0 0 the greatest concentrations of foreign-born population were found in W a r d s 3, 5, 2, 4, 1, 7, 2 0 and 22, in the order named. In 1 9 4 0 those with the greatest concentration of foreign-born were W a r d s 15, 27, 26, 1 and 6, in the order named. T h e only increases in the proportion of foreign-born population were found in Wards 15 and 27. These two wards were also characterized by the largest population increases in the city since the turn of the century. Table X X V I indicates the foreign-born percentage of the total population in each ward for the years 1900, 1 9 1 0 , 1920, 1 9 3 0 and 1940. The decrease in foreign-born was especially marked from 1900 to 1 9 1 0 . The greatest decrease in the percentage of foreign-born is found in W a r d 4, namely, 3 9 % in

NEGRO

AND

FOREIGN-BORN

T A B L E PERCENTAGE

OF

FOREIGN-BORN

BY W A R D S ,

Citv Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward

1900 to 9 %

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

in

II9

X X V I OF T O T A L

BALTIMORE:

POPULATION

1900-1940

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

13.4 18 22 39 19 26 14 16 12 9 15 8 5 5 9 6 5 7 10 8 16 12 15 12 16

14 17 30 49 22 34 16 16 9 7 14 8 5 6 8 6 5 6 10 9 16 10 17 9 15

11 18 29 41 16 26 18 14 7 5 13 6 4 10 6 7 4 4 9 7 10 8 16 7 12 16 13 6 6

9 16 24 29 11 16 16 10 7 5 9 5 5 9 3 14 3 3 7 6 8 7 10 5 10 10 U 8 5

7.1 12 18 23 9 9 12 7 5 4 6 4 4 8 3 13 2 1 4 4 6 5 6 3 7 7 9 6 5

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

—

1940.

Large

decrease in the

foreign-born

element also took place in W a r d s 5, 19, 10 and 9. T h e only consistent increase recorded for the whole period is for W a r d 1 5 ; similar steady g r o w t h is recorded for W a r d s 27 and 28 after their annexation to the city. The

distribution

of

foreign-born

by

countries

of

birth

changed continually during the nineteenth century and in the early years of the twentieth, as tens of thousands of immigrants f r o m different European countries streamed into

Baltimore.

W a v e s of German immigrants during the first half of the nineteenth century were followed by w a v e s of Russian, Polish and Italian immigrants during the second half of that century. T h e m a j o r i t y of the foreign-born in 1940 were of Russian

APPENDIX

I20

birth a n d represented 2 4 %

C

of the total f o r e i g n - b o r n

popula-

tion. G e r m a n y ranked second a n d accounted f o r 1 6 % of B a l t i m o r e ' s f o r e i g n population. T h e national a v e r a g e s of the f o r e i g n - b o r n population c o m i n g f r o m R u s s i a a n d G e r m a n y w e r e 10.8%

a n d 9 . 1 % , respectively. T h e r e w e r e also l a r g e f o r e i g n -

b o r n contingents f r o m P o l a n d a n d

Italy, c o m p r i s i n g

14.2%

a n d 1 3 . 2 % of B a l t i m o r e ' s f o r e i g n - b o r n population. T h e P o l i s h g r o u p in B a l t i m o r e w a s p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y l a r g e r than the national

T A B L E MAJOR

FOREIGN-BORN

X X V I I ELEMENT

BALTIMORE:

Area

IN

POPULATION,

1910-1940*

1910

1920

German German Russian Russian Russian Russian German Austrian German German Irish Russian Irish Irish German German German German Russian German Irish German German German Russian German German

Polish Polish Italian Russian Russian Russian

Polish Polish Italian Italian Italian Russian

Czech German German Russian Irish

Czech German German Italian German

Irish Russian Russian Russian German Russian Russian

German Russian German Russian German Russian Lithuanian German German Russian Russian German Polish

Ward 26

German German German Russian German German Polish Polish German German

Ward 27 Ward 28

German German

Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward

1 2 3 4 5 6

Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward

7 8 9 10 11

Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward

12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward Ward

19 20 21 22 23 24

Ward 25

* Comparable data for 1930 is not available

1940

German German Italian German German

NEGRO

AND

121

FOREIGN-BORN

average of 8 . 7 % . T h e Italian proportion of 1 3 . 2 % w a s slightly smaller than the 1 4 . 2 % national percentage. T h i s table points to the "succession and invasion" of different nationality g r o u p s between 1 9 1 0 and 1940.

T h e change

in the nationality composition of the population is especially marked in the w a r d s in or a d j o i n i n g the business center of the city.

During

the thirty-year period there were no net

changes in the m a j o r foreign-born component of the population in W a r d s 8, 9, 16, 17, 19, 20, 22 and 23. In addition, there were no net changes in the 1 9 2 0 - 1 9 4 0 period in W a r d s 2-

3- 5. 7> r 3 . I5>

27 a n d

28-

In Baltimore 3 7 % of the native-born population is under 1 9 years of age. In contrast, only 2 . 3 % of its foreign-born population is under 19. A t the other end of the population distribution,

1 8 . 5 % of Baltimore's native population is 50 years of

age or over, with 5 3 %

of its foreign-born in the same a g e

bracket. Baltimore's foreign-born population—in line w i t h the national p a t t e r n — i s markedly older than her native population. Generally speaking, sociological studies of urban centers have brought out that the percentage foreign-born in various sections of such areas correlates highly with indices of socioeconomic status. Studies dealing with this subject frequently speak of a gradient rate of percentage foreign-born. H o w e v e r , an analysis of M a p X I I I

( A p p e n d i x D ) points to a general

TABLE CORRELATION CERTAIN

BETWEEN

OTHER

XXVIII

PERCENTAGE

SPECIFIED

FOREIGN-BORN

SOCIO-ECONOMIC

BALTIMORE:

AND

VARIABLES

1940

Specified Variable

Median Years Education Median Monthly Rent Percentage O v e r c r o w d i n g Percentage Owner-occupied Percentage Homes S u b s t a n d a r d Percentage N o n - w h i t e

-.12

-.13 -.01

+ .12 + .07 -.32

122

APPENDIX

C

distribution of the foreign-born population throughout all parts of the city. T h e r e is no clustering of the foreign-born groups in the d o w n t o w n section o r in areas of first residence. T h e r e are large concentrations of foreign-born in various parts of the city. Table X X V I I I

underlines the hypothesis d r a w n from the

examination of M a p X I I I ( A p p e n d i x D ) . A l l but one of these correlations are not significant on the .01 or .05 levels.

APPENDIX

D

MAPS OF BALTIMORE Showing Distribution of Variables by Census Tracts

• TT WOiMHÜ

1000 RATE PER CHILDREN T-17 YEARS OF AGE

I.

JUVENILE DELINQUENCY,

1939-1942

DÉVIATION PER 1000

Hjjjjj

+ 2 . 5 0 AND OVER

f i n + . S 1 TO + 2 . 4 9

CHILDREN

7-17

YEARS

| | | | - 2 . 5 0 AND Q - . 5 1

TO

OF

AGE

OVER

-2.49

• 5 0 TO + . 5 0 j INDUSTRIAL

AREAS

PUBLIC

AND

SEMIPUBLIC

AREAS

BALTIMORE CITY HEALTH DEPARTMENT — ST ATlSTlCAL SECTION

II.

D E V I A T I O N OF O B S E R V E D FROM P R E D I C T E D R A T E ACCORDING TO C E N S U S T R A C T S ,

DELINQUENCY

1939-1942

PERCENTAGE CHANGE BETWEEN

INCREASE OVER 100 PERCENT

INCREASE 40-99.9 PERCENT

1900 A N D 1940

INCREASE 0-39.9 PERCENT

DECREASE 0-39.9 PERCENT

DECREASE OVER 4 0 PERCENT

PREPARED Br BUREAU OF VITAL STATISTICS.BALTIMORE CITY HEALTH DEPARTMENT

III.

PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN POPULATION ACCORDING TO WARDS, 1 9 0 0 - 1 9 4 0

IV.

P O P U L A T I O N C H A N G E — P E R C E N T ACCORDING TO C E N S U S TRACTS,

1930-1940

MEDIAN YEARS Of SCHOOL COMPLETED, POPULATION 25 Y E A R S OLD AND OVER 12 YEARS OR MORE ¡ W J 7 0 - 7 9 YEARS

J 90-11 9 Y E A R S

^ C 0 -

3 8 0 - S.9 Y E A R S

^ H L E S S THAN 6 YEARS

«PUBLIC AMD jlSEMIPUBLIC AREAS

69YEARS

3 INDUSTRIAL AREAS PREPARED Br BUREAU OF VITAL STATISTICS, BALTIMORE OTT HEALTH DEPARTMENT

V.

E D U C A T I O N OF A D U L T P O P U L A T I O N ACCORDING TO CENSUS TRACTS, 1 9 4 0

CENSUS

VI.

MEDIAN

MONTHLY

RENT 1940

FOR

CENSUS

EACH

CENSUS

TRACT,

VII.

P E R C E N T A G E OF D W E L L I N G U N I T S B U I L T PRIOR TO 1 9 0 0 IN E A C H C E N S U S TRACT, 1 9 4 0

CENSUS

PERCENTAGE OF WELLING UNITS OCCUPIED BY OWNER 65% OR MORE R g i j 3 0 . 0 - 44.9% 55.0 - 64.9%

g^jjl5-29.9%

45.0- 54.9%

H f l ..ESS THAN 15%

tvi'irJ pu6L,c AND P^xJSEMIPUBLlC AREAS

1.

INDUSTRIAL A R E A S

PREPARE» Bt SrjPEAU Of VITAL STATISTICS, BALTIMORE ClT* KEAI 1H DEPARTMENT

VIII.

O W N E R - O C C U P I E D D W E L L I N G U N I T S A C C O R D I N G TO CENSUS TRACTS, 1 9 4 0

CENSUS

IX.

ROOM D E N S I T Y , 1 9 4 0

CENSUS

PERCENTAGE OF DWELLING UNITS NEEDING MAJOR REPAIRS •

UNDER 5 %

f H 10-19%

1 5 - 9 %

20-30% •

•

S M I W B U C AREAS

30% H'NOUSTRIAL AREAS DEPARTMENT-STATISTICAL SECTION

X.

DWELLING

UNITS

IN

NEED

OF

MAJOR

REPAIRS,

1940

CENSUS

XI.

O U T S I D E OR NO T O I L E T

FACILITIES—DISTRIBUTION

ACCORDING TO C E N S U S T R A C T S , I 9 4 O C E N S U S

X I I . NEGRO POPULATION,

1940

CENSUS

XIII.

FOREIGN BORN, 1 9 4 0

CENSUS

SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY Alihan, M. A., Social Ecology. New York, Columbia University Press, 1938 Aschaffenburg, Gustav, Crime and Its Repression. Boston, Little, Brown & Co., 1913 Barnes, H. E., and N. K. Teeters, New Horizons in Criminology. New York, Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1947 Barron, Newton L., " Juvenile Delinquency and American Values," American Sociological Review, April, 1951, pp. 208-216 Bonger, William A., Criminality and Economic Conditions, tr. by Henry P. Horton. Boston, Little, Brown & Co., 1916 Burgess, Ernest W., " Urban Areas," in T. V. Smith and L. D. White, eds., Chicago, an Experiment in Social Science Research. Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1929, pp. 114-123 Cavan, Ruth, Criminology. New York, The T. Y. Crowell Co., 1948 Cohen, Lillian, " Family Characteristics of Home Owners," American Journal of Sociology, May, 1950, pp. 565-571 Davie, Maurice R., " The Pattern of Urban Growth," in George P. Murdock, ed., Studies in the Science of Society. New Haven, Yale University Press, 1937, pp. 133-161 Dean, John P., " The Growth of Home Ownership," The Journal of Social Issues, 1951, pp. 59-61 Ezekiel, Mordecai, Methods of Correlation Analysis. 2nd ed. New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1941 Firey, Walter, Land Use in Central Boston. Cambridge, Harvard University Press, 1947 Florence, P. S., The Statistical Method in Economics and Political Science. New York, Harcourt, Brace & Co., Inc., 1929 Frazier, E. Franklin, The Negro Family in the United States. Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1947 Glueck, Sheldon, and Eleanor Glueck, Unraveling Juvenile Delinquency. New York, The Commonwealth Fund, 1950 Guerry, André M., Essai sur la statistique morale de la France (Paris, 1833) Healy, William, and Augusta F. Bronner, New Light on Juvenile Delinquency and Its Treatment. New Haven, Yale University Press, 1939

138

SELECTED

BIBLIOGRAPHY

Healy, William, The Individual Delinquent. Boston, Little, Brown & Co., 1915 Kiser, Clyde V., Sea Island to City. New York, Columbia University Press, 1932 Lombroso, Cesare, Crime, Its Causes and Remedies. Boston, Little, Brown & Co., 1911 Maclver, Robert M., Social Causation. New York, Ginn & Company, 1942 Mayhew, Henry, London Labour and the London Poor. London, Charles Griffin & Co., 1861 Moses, Earl R., " Differentials in Crime Rates Between Negroes and Whites in Comparisons of Four Socioeconomically Equated Areas," American Sociological Review, August, 1941, pp. 411420 Park, Robert E., Ernest W . Burgess, and R. D. McKenzie, The City. Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1925 Parsons, Talcott, The Structure of Social Action. New York, McGraw-Hill Book Co., Inc., 1937 Pearson, F. A., and K. R. Bennett, Statistical Methods Applied to Agricultural Economics. New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1942 Quinn, James A., Human Ecology. New York, Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1950 Reiss, A. J., Jr., " Delinquency as the Failure of Personal and Social Controls," American Sociological Review, April, 1951, pp. 196-207 Robinson, William S., " Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals," American Sociological Review, June, 1950, pp. 551-557 Robison, Sophia M., Can Delinquency Be Measured? New York, Columbia University Press, 1936 Sellin, Thorsten, " The Basis of a Crime Index," Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology, September, 1931 Culture Conflict and Crime. New York, Social Science Research Council, 1937 Shaw, Clifford R., Delinquency Areas. Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1929 Shaw, Clifford R., and Henry D. McKay, Juvenile Delinquency and Urban Areas. Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1942 Sheldon, H. D., " Problems in the Statistical Study of Juvenile Delinquency," Metron, X I I , 1934

SELECTED

BIBLIOGRAPHY

139

Sherif, Muzafer, The Psychology of Social Norms. New York, Harper & Brothers, 1936 Sullenger, T. Earl, Social Determinants in Juvenile Delinquency. New York, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1936 " The Social Significance of Mobility," American Journal of Sociology, May, 1950, pp. 559-564 Sutherland, Edwin H., Principles of Criminology. 4th rev. ed. Philadelphia, J. B. Lippincott Company, 1947 Taft, D. R., " Nationality and Crime," American Sociological Review, October, 1936, pp. 724-737 Criminology, a Cultural Interpretation. Rev. ed. New York, The Macmillan Co., 1950 Tappan, Paul, Juvenile Delinquency. New York, McGraw-Hill Book Co., Inc., 1949 Teeters, N. K., and J. O. Reinemann, The Challenge of Delinquency. New York, Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1950 Thomas, W . I., and Florian Znaniecki, The Polish Peasant in Europe and America. 5 vols. Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1918-1920 Thrasher, Frederic M., The Gang. Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1936 Thurstone, L. L., Multiple Factor Analysis. Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1947 Whyte, William F., Street Corner Society. Chicago, University of Chicago Press, 1943 Wiers, Paul, Economic Factors in Michigan Delinquency. New York, Columbia University Press, 1944

INDEX Anomic factor, 55-59, 61, 83 Anomie: defined, 55; juvenile delinquency and, 59-60, 65, 69-70, 80, 88-89; among Negroes, 56-57, 60, 64, 83, Aschaffenburg, Gustav, 4 Baltimore : education in, 96-99 ; history of, 91-95 ; housing in, 105-111 ; Negroes in, 112-16; foreign born in, 116-22; overcrowding in, 107109 ; homes owner-occupied, 105107; population composition, 94-95 ; population increase, 91-94 ; rents in, 101-104; substandard housing in, 109-111 Baltimore Health Department and Housing Authority Survey, 102-103 Beta coefficients, 48 Burgess, E. W „ 2, 4-5, 8-10, 24, 27, 40, 73, 74, 83-88, 99 Burt, Cyril, 3 Carr, L. J., 4 Census tracts, history of, 17-19 Chinese and juvenile delinquency, 71, 81 City center and juvenile delinquency, 2, 23, 73-74, 88 Coefficient of multiple correlation, 4950 Coefficient of partial correction, 44-47 Cohen, Lillian, 55 Commercial areas and juvenile delinquency, 2, 6, 27-28, 70, 73-76 Concentric zone hypothesis, 2, 8-10, 23-27, 83-88, 99, 104 Correlational analysis, 44-50, 61-76 ; 88; limitations of, 36-43, 77-78 Cultural conflict, 65 Dean, John P., 55-56, 79 Determination, index of, 62 Deviant areas, 68-72, 73 Differential delinquency rates, 20-43 Discrimination against Negroes, 30, 109, 114 Durkheim, Emile, 41-43, 55, 89-90

Ecological theory, 4-10, 83-88 Education, 11-12, 87; in Baltimore, 96-99; definition of variable, 12; foreign born and, 100; homes owner-occupied and, 100; juvenile delinquency and, 29, 37, 46, 48, 61 ; Negroes and, 37, 100 ; overcrowding and, 100; rents and, 100; substandard housing and, 100 Ezekiel, Mordecai, 39-40 Factor analysis, 51-60, 80, 83, 88 Fales, W. Thurber, 18, 72, 93 Federal Slum Survey 35, 81 Florence, P. S., 41 Foreign-born: in Baltimore, 116-22; education and, 97-98, 121 ; home ownership and, 121 ; juvenile delinquency and, 6, 9, 35-36, 46-47, 48, 61, 81 ; overcrowding and, 121 ; rents and, 121 ; substandard housing and, 121 Frazier, E. Franklin, 57» Geographic location and juvenile delinquency, 73-76, 87 Gradient hypothesis, 2, 8-10, 83-88,99 Green, H . W „ 18» Guerry, André M., 3 Guttman, Louis, 78 Home ownership : in Baltimore, 105107; education and, 107; foreignborn and, 35, 107; as index of stability, 55-56, 71-72, 80, 88 ; juvenile delinquency and, 35, 46, 48, 61-62, 66-67, 88; Negroes and, 32, 107; overcrowding and, 107 ; rents and, 107; substandard housing and, 107 Housing: age of, in Baltimore, 105; discrimination against Negroes, 30 ; socio-economic variables and, 105111; statistical findings on, 78-80; see also Substandard housing Howard, William Travis, Jr., 94 Index of partial correlation, 44-47

142

INDEX

Industrial land-use zones, 2, 6, 26-27, 70, 73, 75, 79, 84 Interstitial areas, 4 J e w s and juvenile delinquency, 70, 81 Juvenile delinquency rate : definition of variable, 13-15; reliability of, 15-17 Laidlaw, W a l t e r , 17 Land-use zones : changes in, 73-75, 85 ; invasion by industry and business, 85 Lombroso, Cesare, 3 Maclver, R. M., 77n, 85 McKay, H e n r y D., 5» Mailer, Julius, 38 Malnutrition and juvenile delinquency, 38 Mayhew, H e n r y , 3 Mobility and juvenile delinquency, 38 Multiple correlation analysis, 49-50 Multiple factor theory, 40-41 N a t u r a l areas, 9, 86 N e g r o and W h i t e juvenile delinquency, comparable rates, 20-22, 24-25, 32, 33-34, 60, 64, 66, 82 Negroes : anomie among, 56-57, 60, 64, 83, 88; in Baltimore, 112-16; education and, 37, 97-98, 116; family income and, 115; foreignborn and, 116; home ownership and, 32, 116; housing discrimination, 30, 101 ; juvenile delinquency and, 6, 9, 20-23, 31-34, 37-38, 46, 47, 48, 60, 61-62, 64-66, 72, 81-83, 8 8 ; overcrowding and, 32, 116; rents and, 30, 37, 101, 102-104, 116; substandard housing and, 32, 116 Non-white population: 112-16; definition of, 13; see also Chinese; Foreign-born; Negroes Overcrowding, 6, 11-12; in Baltimore, 107-109; definition of variable, 12; education and, 108, 109; foreign-born and, 108 ; home ownership and, 108, 109; juvenile delin-

quency and, 35, 46, 48, 61, 79, 88; Negroes and, 108-109; rents and, 108, 109; substandard housing and, 108, 109 P a r k , Robert E., 4-5, 83-88 Parsons, Talcott, 55 Partial correlation analysis, 44-47, 79 Population: changes, 28, 91-94; composition, 11, 13, 81-83, 94-95; declining, 2, 5-6; density, 3, 4 ; increase, 4-5, 7-10, 73-75, 85, 91-94 Poverty and juvenile delinquency, 3, 9, 80-81, 84, 88, 89 Processes of city growth and juvenile delinquency, 4-7, 10, 73, 85-86 Prediction, 77-78, 80 Quinn, James A., 9, 87 Racial factor in juvenile delinquency, 64-67, 82-83 Regression analysis, 62-67, 80, 88 Rents, 11-12, 86-87, 101-104; in Baltimore, 101-105; definition of variable, 12; education and, 104; foreign born and, 30, 104; home ownership and, 104; juvenile delinquency and, 29-31, 37, 46, 48, 61, 79; median rentals in urban areas, 101; Negroes and, 30, 37, 102-104; overcrowding and, 104; substanda r d housing and, 104 Robinson, W . S., 43, 51-53 Robison, Sophia, 15-16 Segregation, effects of, 109, 114 Sellin, Thorsten, 14tt Shaw, Clifford R., 1, 4-10, 28, 73, 81, 83-88, 90 Sherif, Muzafer, 90 Shulman, H a r r y , 4 Social disorganization, 9-10, 88 Socio-economic factor, 57-60 Social stability, 80; see also Anomic f a c t o r ; Anomie Social values and juvenile delinquency, 6-8 Standard error of estimate, 68 Statistical findings, 77-88 Stouffer, Samuel, 16

INDEX Substandard housing, 4, 11-12; in Baltimore, 8 4 ; definition of variable, 13-14; education and, 48, 111; foreign born and, 48, 111; home owner occupied and, 48, 111; juvenile delinquency and, 35, 46, 48, 61, 79, 88, 89; Negroes and, 48, 100, 111; overcrowding and, 48, 79, 111; rents and, 48, 79, 111

J

43

Thrasher, Fredric, 4, 90 Thurstone, L. L., 51» United States Census Population and Housing Series, 1940, 11 Wiers, Paul, 14n Zones in transition, 84-85, 87