The study of political commitment 9780912764085

Table of contents :
Frontmatter
Tables (page vi)
I. Introduction: The Study of Political Commitment (page 1)
II. A Conceptualization of Political Commitment (page 4)
III. Political Commitment in a Heterogeneous Nation (page 11)
IV. Methods and Procedures (page 20)
V. The Measures of Commitment (page 27)
VI. Results: Commitment and Development (page 40)
VII. Results: Commitment and Demographic Factors (page 60)
VIII. Discussion and Conclusions (page 76)
Appendix I. Commitment Items (page 86)
Appendix II. Locus of Commitment Items (page 94)
Appendix III. Indices of Individual Developmental Status (page 98)
Appendix IV. Demographic and Background Measures (page 100)
References (page 103)

Citation preview

THE STUDY OF

POLITICAL COMMITMENT |

THE ARNOLD AND CAROLINE ROSE MONOGRAPH SERIES IN SOCIOLOGY A gift by Arnold and Caroline Rose to the American Sociological Association in 1968 provided for the establishment of the Arnold and Caroline Rose Monograph Series in Sociology. The conveyance provided for the publication of manuscripts in any subject matter field of sociology. The donors intended the series for rather short monographs, contributions that normally are beyond the scope of publication in regular academic journals.

The series is under the general direction of an editorial board appointed by the Council of the American Sociological Association and responsible to the Publications Committee of the Association. Competition for publication in the Series has’ been limited by the Association to Members and Student Members.

Arnold Rose was my teacher and my friend. I was fully aware, before his untimely death, of his sense that sociology needed a publication outlet of the sort provided by this Series; and I was dimly aware of his hope that his and Caroline’s gift would meet that need. I am grateful to the American Sociological Association for providing me the opportunity to help fulfill Arnold’s hope. Sheldon Stryker Editor

December 1973 Library of Congress Number 73-93814 International Standard Book Number 0-912764-08-2 ©American Sociological Association 1722 N St. N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036 ii

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS | The research here reported is part of a research program on national role involvement, under the general direction of Professor Daniel Katz. Collection of data and initial analyses were supported by the Center for Research on Conflict Resolution at the University of Michigan. Subsequent analyses were funded by the Research Committee of the University of Wisconsin-Madison Graduate School, and the preparation of the manuscript was supported by the NIMH Training Grant in the Sociology of Economic Change, Department of Sociology, University of WisconsinMadison.

As always, it is impossible to acknowledge adequately the contributions of others. This study would have been impossible without the cooperation of the 1600

respondents who supplied the data, and the labor of the interviewers and staff members of the Public Opinion Research Center in Belgrade, Yugoslavia, in collect-

ing it. I owe an even greater debt to Professors Daniel Katz, Herbert Kelman, Robert Kahn and James Moore for intellectual guidance and personal support, not

only during the writing of the thesis on which this monograph is based, but throughout my career as a graduate student. Ljuba Stoji¢ deserves major recognition and gratitude as both colleague and friend. Ljuba suggested Yugoslavia as a research site, helped in applying the conceptualization to his country and developing the interview schedule, and directed the field work. As a graduate assistance, Ed Wells was of invaluable aid in figuring out ways to perform complex analyses, and in cajoling the computer into providing the needed results. Marilyn Burgard, Linda Bochert, Jeanne Peterson, and Linda Eaves have my well-earned thanks for their perseverance and patience in translating my writing into final manuscripts. The valuable suggestions of Professor Stryker and the other reviewers contributed much to the quality of this paper.

| J.D.D. Madison 1973

iii

BLANK PAGE

Chapter Page I. Introduction: The Study of Political Commitment .............. l

II. A Conceptualization of Political Commitment ................. 4

III. Political Commitment in a Heterogeneous Nation ............... 1]

IV. Methods and Procedures ....... 0. cece eee eee eee teens 20 V. The Measures of Commitment .......... 000 c eee cece eeeeee 27

VI. Results: Commitment and Development .................... 40 VII. Results: Commitment and Demographic Factors ............... 60 VIII. Discussion and Conclusions ......... 00.0 cece ee eee ee eeeese 16 Appendix

I. Commitment Items... 1... ee ene 86

Il. Locus of Commitment Items .......... 0... 00 e eee eee eee 94 III. Indices of Individual Developmental Status ................... 98 IV. Demographic and Background Measures ...............----.-.- 100

Tables 2... ee ee ce eee eee ee eee eee ee ee ee eee eee Vi References ..... 0... ce eee ee eee ee ete tee ee eee eee eee eee = 103

V

} Page

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Statistical Characteristics of Urban Populations, by

Type of Urbanization .......... 0... 0.00 eee eee eee 20 Table 2: Functional Item Interrelations: Total Sample ............ 30 Table 3: Ideological [tem Interrelations:

Total Sample ................2...002200+2+44. 32

Table 4: Symbolic Item Interrelations: TotalSample ............. 34 Table 5: Normative Item Interrelations: Total Sample ............ 35 Table 6: Federal Locus Item Interrelations:

Total Sample ........0.... 2.00. eee es BT

Table 7: State Locus Item Interrelations: TotalSample ........... 38 Table 8: Average Commitment Scores, by State ................ 42

States 2. ee ee eee 43

Table 9: Significance of Differences in Commitment Score Between Table 10: Correlations Between Indices of Type, Locus and

Development: Total Sample ..................224. 45

Table 11: Correlations Between Indices of Type, Locus and

Development: Slovenia ............... 0200-4 e eee 46 Table 12: Correlations Between Indices of Type, Locus and

Development: Croatia ............ 00. eee ee eee es 4G Table 13: Correlations Between Indices of Type, Locus and

Development: Serbia ......... 0... 0000 eee eee es 47 Table 14: Correlations Between Indices of Type, Locus and

Development: Macedonia ..............2.20-204044 48 Table 15: Average Locus Scores, by State ................224. 49 Table 16: Significance of Differences in Locus Score Between

States 2... ee ee ee eee ee 4

Table 17: Average Commitment Scores, by Type of

Urbanization .. 1... ee ee ee ee ee ees 5G

Table 18: Average Locus Scores, by Type of Urbanization ........... 57 Table 19: Significance of Locus Score Differences, by Type of

Urbanization ...... . ee ee ee ee ee SD

Table 20: Correlations of Basic Indices with Age, by State ........... 61 Table 21: Average Scores on Indices, by Travel and State ........... 63 Table 22: Average Scores on Indices for Urban and Rural Residents,

by State 2. ee ee ee ee ee ee 65

Table 23: Correlations of Commitment Indices and Socioeconomic

Variables: Slovenia .......... 0.0. eee eee eee eee es 67 Table 24: Correlations of Commitment Indices and Socioeconomic

Variables: Croatia ..........0.....0 0002 ee eevee es 68

, vi

Table 25: Correlations of Commitment Indices and Socioeconomic

Variables: Serbia .........0 0.2.0... ee eee eee ee ee 6Y

Page

Table 26: Correlations of Commitment Indices and Socioeconomic

Variables: Macedonia ..................0020222.2. 70

Table 27: Partial Correlations of Socioeconomic Variables with

Commitment Indices: Slovenia .................... 72

Table 28: Partial Correlations of Socioeconomic Variables with

Commitment Indices: Croatia ..................... 73

Table 29: Partial Correlations of Socioeconomic Variables with

Commitment Indices: Serbia ..................... 73

Table 30: Partial Correlations of Socioeconomic Variables with

Commitment Indices: Macedonia ................... 7973

Vil

, BLANK PAGE

CHAPTER I

INTRODUCTION: THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT The integration of individuals into the social system is a process of long-standing

concern to social philosophers and social scientists. The attempts of modern social | scientists to deal with this problem grew out of Durkheim’s treatment (1952). His conceptualization of integration as based on either organic or mechanical solidarity,

depending upon the nature of the system itself, continues to exert a strong influ-

ence on scientific thought, and is still accepted in some quarters as the most adequate available treatment.

The dominant trend in the past thirty years is a movement away from putting the question in its most general or societal form toward developing theory and research on integration into specific social units. This trend no doubt reflects the increasing specialization of the social sciences during that period; but perhaps it also follows from the recognition that the individual is integrated into a society primarily, if not exclusively, by his membership in its various groups, organizations, or subsystems. Thus the group dynamics tradition places major emphasis on cohesiveness, which in terms of an individual is the strength of his feeling of belonging to a group (Cartwright and Zander, 1968). Similarly, a considerable body of literature has developed which focuses on the individual’s integration in or alienation from his work organization (for example, Blauner, 1964; Katz and Kahn, 1966). Finally, and of particular relevance to the present study, the relationship between the individual and his government (or the nation/society as a whole?), has come to be viewed in terms of his integration into the political system (Easton, 1965). This paper focuses on the individual’s political integration. The underlying perspective is provided by “‘systems theory” (Katz and Kahn, 1966); thus it shares the

basic framework of the recent conceptions of political scientists (Easton, 1965;

THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT ]

Almond and Powell, 1966). Like them, the author views society as a social system

comprised of various subsystems, of which the political system is one. For our purposes, Easton provides the best definition of the political subsystem, as “those interactions through which values are authoritatively allocated for a society.”” From

a micro- or individual point of view, a major concern becomes the individual’s orientation to the political (sub)system. Easton terms this the problem of support for the system, while Almond and Powell and others term it the political culture.

: What is common to these is a concern with the individual’s attitudes, values and affective reactions. Thus the present paper deals with measuring the individual’s support of his society’s political system, or what is termed his commitment to it. It is therefore in the tradition of micro-political study, being only secondarily concerned with the larger system. Also, as a social psychologist, the author shares with the other writers the belief that it is the individual’s perception which is of primary importance in political action, and that perception may or may not correspond to reality as otherwise measured.

Concern with the commitment of the individual to the political system arises from both conceptual and pragmatic sources. Easton (1965), among others, argues persuasively that the long-run stability of a political system or a government depends critically on the existence of some minimal level of support from the populace. For this and other reasons, in order to reach a complete understanding of the political process, one must study the orientation of the individual citizen, as well as governments themselves and such formal processes as voting. Pragmatically, recent interest in the individual’s orientation toward the government or political system has been stimulated in part by right-wing political movements in the United States and West Germany, and by “nationalist” uprisings in newly emerging states. Observers of such phenomena consistently attribute them to differences in the nature of some persons’ attitudes and emotions toward their nation (e.g., Bell, 1963; Post, 1968), implying that the differences are extensive enough to be measurable. It is a common assumption that empirical study of the differences in political orientation

within a nation will yield an explanation of such social movements. Perhaps the first relevant empirical study of major importance is Almond and Verba’s (1965) analysis of the differences in individual orientation found in five nations or states. The present research extends this concern specifically to intra-state differences. As will be explained below, it assumes differences in orientation due to ethnic/religious/historical differences between groups within a single state, in this case, Yugoslavia. In so doing, the present paper moves beyond the stress in earlier conceptions on the (assumed) homogeneity of orientation within a country. Easton (1965), for example, stresses homogeneity and discusses ‘“‘cleavage”’ only in terms of differences

i Opinion or position on particular issues. Similarly, Almond and Verba (1965) focus primarily on party membership as the basis of cleavage within a population. Emphasis on issues or party-based differences reflects the “consensus” orientation of much of the extant political research and theory, which is perhaps reasonable in analyses of established democracies. However, when attention is shifted to developing nations, Almond and Powell (1966) recognize the necessity of systematically introducing cleavage resulting from ethnic, religious, linguistic and other group differences, and examining conflict in orientation between such groups. Major

2 INTRODUCTION

ethnic differences between component groups have been a source of intense conflict in some developing countries, two prominent recent examples of which are that between Biafra and Nigeria and Pakistan and Bangladesh. Thus a pragmatically important question considered by the present paper is whether and how ethnic differences affect the political commitment of various groups in a state where such differences correspond to autonomous political subunits, or nations. A second problem of practical concern is the stress by numerous authors on a sense of nationality and commitment to the political system as prerequisite to economic development (e.g., Apter, 1966; Deutsch, 1966). Research on political

integration in a developing nation provides empirical data about the extent to which types and/or strength of commitment are in fact correlated with indices of development. Interviews provide such information at the level of the individual.

Thus, the present paper examines political commitment in a developing state, and its perspective is systems-theoretical and social-psychological. The data to be presented deal in particular with the nature of differences in individual orientation which correspond to ethnic/religious differences, and the extent to which individual orientation is related to economic development. In addition, the research instruments and analysis draw on a conception of commitment which was originally developed in an American sociopolitical context. The data obtained will provide information about the cross-national applicability of the conceptualization. Overview

Chapter II presents the typology and conception of commitment which provides the framework of the research. The original version of the conceptualization was designed to allow for the generating and testing of propositions about political commitment in the United States (Katz, 1965; Katz, Kelman and Flacks, 1964). A study in an American community specified three types of commitment which were validly measured, and established striking attitudinal differences which were related to differences in mode of commitment (DeLamater, Katz and Kelman, 1969). The present version differs in adding a fourth mode of commitment, and in providing a more detailed discussion of the nature and sources of each type. Following the presentation of the model, it will be briefly compared with Easton’s (1965) and Almond and Powell’s (1966) conception of individual political orientation. Chapter III focuses on the application of the model to a developing country with substantial ethnic diversity, and discusses the problem of locus of commitment. Again, the conception as used here will be briefly contrasted with the two noted above. This chapter contains a brief description of Yugoslavia, and concludes with the hypotheses of the research. Chapter IV presents the research design and methods. Chapter V discusses in detail the development of the empirical measures of

commitment. The results are the concern of Chapters VI and VII, the former focusing on differences in type and locus of commitment and their relationship to economic development, and the latter on the relationship between political commitment and various demographic characteristics. Chapter VIII presents a summary and the conclusions.

THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT 3

CHAPTER II

A CONCEPTUALIZATION OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT The relationship of the individual to the political system can be studied at two levels, the level of system and the level of individual. At the system level, concern is with the definitions of this relationship which are promulgated and communicated by political leaders, how these definitions are related to the supra-systematic or external environment of the state, and to the basic functional problems facing that social system at a given time. One could investigate such problems by analyzing documents and pronouncements of national leaders, and relating these to other institutional arrangements.

: At the individual level, the focus is shifted to the citizen and his immediate social environment. Here, the issues are how the individual perceives or defines his relationship to the nation-state, his beliefs concerning his obligations to the system and its obligations to him, the mechanisms which involve him in the system and his consequent attitudes and values. It is assumed that some components will be shared by all or most members of the system; these would presumably be a function of the nature of the state itself. But there will also be variation across individuals, e.g., in the intensity of their involvement, the components of system values which they

emphasize, or the type of mechanism which binds them to the system. These variations might be a function of various demographic factors, position in the political and social structure, and personality variables. The problem at this level is referred to as the problem of individual commitment to the state. A concept that allows one to integrate the system and individual levels of analysis is that of national role. Thus one can conceive of a nation-state as a system of roles in which each individual plays a particular role. Easton (1965), Almond and Powell (1966) and others who take a system perspective also view the relationship

4 THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT

between individual and organizations or systems as a role relationship. At the system level, there will be an “ideology”’ (Katz and Kahn, 1966) which justifies the existence of the system, defines the role behavior appropriate to members, specifies the conditions under which such behavior is required, and legitimizes certain attitudes and values. This ideology will be built into and manifested by political institutions, communicated by those holding high positions in the system, and transmitted to individuals through the mass media and other agencies of socialization. In the context of this role system, a role-definition is developed by the individual. One may thus compare his definition of the national role and the expectations

concerning behavior, attitudes, etc., which he holds with that of other nationals. One may also study his role enactment: the salience of the role to him, the cues to which he responds, his patterns of behavior, and the strength of his commitment to the role. One would expect different segments of society to differ in their conception of what is expected of them as nationals, as a function of differing positions within the role system. Thus the concept of role allows one to analyze both the system and individual levels, and both uniformities and variations in content and strength of commitment. A Typology of Commitment

The conceptualization is most fully elaborated at the level of the individual. It is primarily concerned with the nature and consequences of an individual’s commitment to his nation-state. The present version of the conception assumes that there are four ways in which such a commitment may be developed and maintained,' each of which will be considered in turn.

Symbolic commitment | All role systems, especially political ones, develop symbols which represent their

various aspects, especially those which are valued and/or unique characteristics. Within political systems such symbols include national flags, anthems, heroes, monuments, and major buildings of government. Around these, rituals are usually developed which connote the respect and patriotism expected of any system member; an example is standing and singing the national anthem in unison in the United States. Children are socialized very early into the meaning of the symbols and requisite behavior toward them. This is an affective conditioning; it usually produces positive affect toward the symbols and the rituals, and negative affect toward disrespect or desecration. This socialization often does not include a strong verbal component; it

is rather a conditioning of internal and emotional responses to external symbols (Peters, 1963). Its strength is demonstrated by the outrage expressed by many people at the burning or any other desecrations of the American flag. That this is an emotional conditioning, and relatively nonverbal, allows it to occur fairly early in the process of socialization. Political systems vary in the extent to which they emphasize such training—for example, in whether they require performance and tutoring at home, in school, or at public events—and in the strength of the associated positive and negative sanctions. These variations presumably have

a direct influence on the intensity of affect felt by the individual. However, a

A CONCEPTUALIZATION OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT 5

constant aspect of this training across political systems is the unanimity of the social reinforcement observed and received by the child. Almost everyone performs

the rituals appropriately on cue, and deviants are almost invariably an object of

negative sanctions. |

Variation in the intensity of the affect aroused by.them determines the efficacy of the national symbols as a means of inducing the individual to behave in ways desired by the state, i.e., in making and maintaining the predominance of his role as a national. For those in whom these affective responses are strong, the association by national leaders of positive symbols and/or desecrations thereof with a demand for performance should be adequate to evoke the appropriate behavior. The behavior so elicited could be of almost any kind; individuals who score high on symbolic commitment meet a wide range of demands without question.

The fact that this conditioning occurs early in life makes it a basic or first component of commitment to a nation. Whether it remains the predominant mode, or is replaced and overlayed by other mechanisms will depend on several additional conditions. This early training also makes it possible for the individual to return or fall back on symbolic commitment if he finds other mechanisms nonfunctional. Moreover, because of its predominantly emotional base, it cannot be changed by verbal, rational persuasion. Normative commitment At the same time as the young child is learning national symbols through political socialization, he begins to learn that certain patterns of behavior are uniformly expected of nationals while certain others are uniformly discouraged. In effect, he begins to learn the norms associated with the national role. These norms and the associated sanctions provide the second mode of commitment. Adherence to the norms produces a unity of behavior and responsiveness to the perceived demands of other nationals. Some of the norms in political systems refer to behavior toward leaders, defining some demands by leaders as always legitimate, and others as legiti-

mate only under certain conditions. An example of the latter is the norm of acquiescence to a broad range of leaders’ demands for positive contributions and for deprivation under conditions of war.

Here, the individual’s commitment is to the system of norms and sanctions governing the role of the national. He believes that these norms and sanctions are legitimate, and that the normative-legal system is equitable, just, and necessary. Of course, his actual performance when the role is invoked depends upon his perception of that role. This in turn is a function of the perceived content of the role on the part of those who socialize him and those with whom he is in close contact. An outgrowth of a predominantly normative mode of commitment is a concern about consensus. Since the individual’s orientation is toward performing the normative or agreed-upon behavior, he is sensitive to the norms in a given situation, i.e.,

the consensus which he perceives among other nationals about the appropriate behavior. In this respect, he is particularly subject to the demands of national leaders, often perceiving them as representatives of the prevailing consensus. In a

6 INTRODUCTION

democratic society, he is in addition sensitive to the ‘‘will of the people” as expressed in elections or the legislative actions of their legitimate representatives.

If commitment is normative, affect relative to national symbols may be relatively low. While the individual may perform the appropriate rituals in the presence of the symbols, he does so because the behavior is expected, not because it yields him a positive emotional experience. Affect, if aroused, is more likely to be associated with enactment or frustrations of the role than with the role itself or symbols of the role system. Ideological commitment

An ideology, a set of values and beliefs which specifies the system’s essential characteristics, is developed by every political system. It almost invariably defines the existing system as the most desirable political arrangement possible. The values give the political role system its legitimacy; they are appealed to when there are attempts to change the system’s structure and/or functions. These ideologies are summarized by terms like “democracy” and “socialism,”’ inasmuch as each of these

should function. }

terms refers to a complex of values about the way in which a political system These values provide another source of system integration. They are typically implicit and explicit in the pronouncements of system leaders, and in the promulgation of system rules and legislative enactments, and they are appealed to under a variety of conditions by both governmental officials and individual citizens. The individual often comes to understand these values at a conscious and verbal level, a growth in understanding which is associated with the development of appropriate cognitive skills. The values may then provide an ideology with which the individual can identify himself, in that he sees as highly desirable the achievement and maintenance of the societal goals the values define, and commits himself to promote them.

At the extreme, the values may become basic to the individual’s conception of himself, as he comes to perceive and evaluate himself and his own behavior in terms of them.

In individuals who identify themselves with the values, their achievement or enhancement is associated with feelings of satisfaction, while any threat to them will elicit a negative reaction. Such persons will resist attempts to implement alternative sets of political values.

Under certain conditions, the values which make up the political ideology may

fuse with the dominant cultural values, so that the two sets of values become relatively indistinguishable. This point will be elaborated below. Because of the strong verbal-cognitive component of value systems, commitment

of this type is likely to be developed later than either symbolic or normative commitment. Ideological commitment is facilitated by secondary and college education, where education stresses the positive aspects and consequences of the ideology for the nation.

Functional commitment

A fourth means of integration is through the interdependence created by the development of an extensive role system. As individuals assume differentiated roles

. THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT 7

in the political system, they become dependent upon it for the satisfaction of various needs, the provision of various material and psychological rewards, including, for example, economic security, social status, and affiliation. To the extent that the system provides rewards which the individual desires, he is motivated to participate in it. This, in turn, produces commitment on his part to

continued satisfactory performance, and he is thereby integrated into it. To the extent that the political system controls the distribution of rewards, whether directly by giving them or indirectly by setting the conditions under which they can be received through other systems, the individual becomes committed to the nation-state. At a minimum, the individual may perceive that the continued functioning of the political system is a necessary prerequisite to the continuation of rewards from the economic and technological systems.

A change in the individual’s desire for rewards or in the nation’s ability to control rewards would be expected to affect strongly those who are functionally integrated. Shifts in the individual’s motives will be related to maturational changes in need or to psychological changes in level of adaptation (Helson, 1959) or “‘comparison level” (Thibaut and Kelley, 1959). The latter could be produced in part by

extensive travel, or by experience through the mass media and personal contact with those in other positions in his own political system or with members of other political systems whose rewards are different. The same phenomena probably play a

major role in the development of an understanding of the nature of the rewards provided by the system.

Interrelation of Modes of Commitment Until now each of the four modes of commitment has been discussed separately. However, it should not be inferred that they are independent of each other. It is assumed that they are to some extent interrelated, that each member of a political system is involved therein through components of each type. However, it is also assumed that most individuals are involved primarily through one mode or another. Thus, while the individual may have some affective involvement in symbols, have

some sensitivity to norms, and identify himself with system values, he may be primarily oriented to the rewards obtainable from participation in that system. On the other hand, an individual may only to a limited degree appreciate or understand system rewards, ideology, and norms, and his primary commitment may be to the

national symbols and rituals.

An earlier paper (DeLamater, et al., 1969) reported data concerning the characteristics and attitudes of Americans whose commitment was predominantly symbolic, normative or functional. Marked differences were found in beliefs and attitudes—differences which were consistent with the conceptualization. Most impor-

tant for present purposes, the three types of commitment were shown to be relatively independent, although there was some correlation between symbolic and normative scales. The extent to which each type is represented in a single individual is assumed to be in part a function of his position in the system. Those with whom he interacts in

his various roles determine his experiences and the nature of his socialization, and

8 INTRODUCTION

these play an important part in determining the type(s) of commitment(s) he develops. Thus different subgroups within society should emphasize different modes of commitment. Empirically, one would expect magnitude and type of involvement to vary as a function of demographic indices (as they did in DeLamater, et al., 1969).

Equally important in determining the extent of association of an individual between the types of commitment is the degree of integration of the political system itself, it being assumed that the individual’s commitment is partly determined by characteristics of the system. This point will be elaborated in Chapter III, where it leads into the fundamental question raised in this study. Comparison with Other Conceptions

Two other conceptions of the individual’s psychological orientation toward the political system have markedly influenced the literature. Neither served as a basis for the present conceptualization; nevertheless, a brief comparison will highlight basic similarities and differences, and provide some reference points for locating the present work. Easton (1965), in a detailed and insightful analysis, discusses at length the nature of individual orientation, which he refers to as “support.” He identifies two basic types of support, “specific” and “diffuse.” Specific support refers to attitudes and behavior that “‘flow as a consequence from some specific satisfactions obtained

from the system. ...” This concept is equivalent to our functional commitment, which is likewise seen as a consequence of the rewards or satisfactions which the individual derives from participating in the system. “Diffuse support”’ is variously referred to as a “general and diffuse attachment to regime and community” and a “reservoir of favorable attitudes or goodwill.” It includes what Easton refers to as “identification with the community,” an emotional attachment to other members of the system. His emphasis on affect suggests a parallel with symbolic commitment as defined above, though the objects differ in the two conceptions; symbolic commitment as employed here is more to what Easton calls the regime, and specifically to symbols and rituals which represent it. Easton also identifies commitment to the

regime’s values and to its norms and structure which are almost identical with ideological and normative commitment as here defined. We agree with Easton’s stress on diffuse support (i.e., normative, symbolic and ideological commitment) as being of greater importance than specific support in the long run; the political system is rarely able to meet all the demands for material and social outputs which generate specific support (functional commitment). The present model differs from his in the omission of regime authorities as an object of commitment. Whereas Easton views authorities as equal in importance to norms and values, we believe that commitment to or dissatisfaction with particular office holders results from the extent to which they and their actions are perceived as legitimate, i.e., as consistent or inconsistent with the regime’s norms and structure, and/or as upholding or challenging its values. Thus the present conception views normative and ideological commitment as the basis of commitment or the lack of it to authorities;

THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT 9

the latter is dependent on the former rather than an independent source of commitment. The other model which places substantial emphasis on individual orientation to

the political system is that of the political culture (Almond and Verba, 1965; Almond and Powell, 1966). Here, the typology of orientation is taken directly from social psychological conceptions of attitudes, identifying orientation as cognitive, affective or evaluative. Affective and evaluative orientation, to these authors, are closely related to symbolic and ideological commitment as discussed above. We do not identify cognitive orientation as a distinct type since cognition or knowledge is a component of all four types of commitment in the present model (as is evident in the preceding discussion). It should be pointed out that ideological commitment as defined here is quite different from what Almond and Powell discuss as “‘ideological political culture.”’ They use the latter to refer to a rigidly held set of orientations with specific content, which renders inflexible the individual’s political evaluations

and actions. Almond and Powell do identify what they refer to as “distributive outputs’ as a source of commitment to the system, but they deemphasize the importance of these rewards relative to the present model. Finally, in the political culture orientation, there is no equivalent of normative commitment as here used, or of Easton’s commitment to the regime’s norms and structure.

As noted earlier, all three conceptions share a basic concern with individual psychological orientation vis-a-vis the political system, and distinguish it from political behavior, or what Easton calls overt support. Furthermore, all stress the importance of the individual’s perceptions, and all view political orientation or commitment as heavily influenced by the process of socialization. We differ in the types of orientation we identify, and the relative emphasis we give to similar types. The data

presented below will allow to some extent an evaluation of the relative utility of the model presented here.

10 INTRODUCTION

CHAPTER III

POLITICAL COMMITMENT IN A HETEROGENEOUS NATION As was noted in Chapter II, an important determinant of the relationship between modes of political commitment at the individual level is the integration of components of the political system. The individual’s commitment to symbols, norms, values and/or rewards reflects the content of the components themselves, and their systemic interrelationships will effect their integration or the lack thereof in him. In a stable and effectively functioning system, one would expect the norms, ideology, symbols and rewards for participation to be interrelated and mutually supportive. Thus, the ideology would be consistent with and support systemic norms, and vice versa; symbols would emphasize aspects of the values which are most central to the system, and symbolic rituals would be strongly supported by the system’s norms. Under these circumstances, we expect individuals to reflect systemic integration in moderately positive correlations between types of commitment. This is what was found in the earlier community study. Such integration appears to be implicitly assumed in the works of Easton (1965) and Almond and Verba (1965). Easton does not discuss the possibility that the regime’s norms, structure and values will be inconsistent or in conflict with each other; rather, he seems to conceive of them as mutually supportive. As noted above, his discussion of cleavage focuses only on differences of opinion on specific issues.

Similarly, Almond and Verba identify multiple political parties as the primary source of differences in orientation in a population, and they see any resulting conflicts as limited in nature. Both conceptions appear to take an equilibrium or functionalist position in narrow terms, and thus they assume that any lack of integration in the system quickly generates forces which reestablish high levels of integration or a state of equilibrium. This position may well be valid when the

THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT 1]

system in question is characterized by substantial integration. But we need not assume that all viable political systems must exhibit such integration. In fact, as Almond and Powell (1966) point out, the major task of many new nations is the establishment of such integration and the corresponding national commitment. While adequate solution of what they term the problem of nation building may be essential in the long run, in the short run a nation lacking integration may be relatively viable.

One of the problems which some nations face is that of “‘nation building” or maintaining a viable political subsystem where the population includes diverse ethnic and religious subcultures. Under these conditions, the four components of commitment specified in the present model may not be well integrated; in fact there may be marked disjunctures between norms, values, symbols and rewards. Groups with diverse ethnic backgrounds differ in content and techniques of socialization, access to experiences, and so on, which in turn implies differences in the dominant mode of commitment. Similarly, the lack of a common political history is an antecedent, since it may produce various orientations toward the way in which the political system should be structured, and thus differences in the relevant values.

In such situations one would expect differences between groups in patterns of dominant modes and in intensity of modes, and zero or negative correlations between modes of commitment among individuals. These between-group differences should produce much greater potential for conflict in the political system relative to systems where the four components are well integrated. At the system level, this would be reflected in the greater difficulty of achieving satisfactory compromises on controversial issues and the greater readiness of leaders to initiate controversy. At the individual level, this would be reflected in stronger local than national commitment, greater suspicion and hostility toward members of other ethniccultural groups and stronger in-group identification (i.e., greater symbolic and normative commitment). The effects of these differences in extreme cases may lead to armed conflict, as in Nigeria or Pakistan. Thus the extent to which the components are interrelated in the political system is assumed to have important consequences for the level of trust, efficiency and conflict between groups in a political system, and for the type and object of an individual’s commitment. The allowance in the present model for varying objects of commitment within the overall political system is the major difference between this and the other conceptions we have discussed. Whereas Easton (1965) assumes that there is only one object of commitment, the regime, we assume that the object may be either the national political structure (the regime), or a more regional or even local political unit. Where there is ethnic heterogeneity, the unit to which the individual is committed is partially a function of his membership in an ethnic group; it also varies by

type of commitment, as will be discussed in the presentation of hypotheses. Easton’s conception depends on the existence of a common, national community with which the individual identifies himself. We are suggesting that ethnic differences may create a series of ethnic communities, and that while the individual may identify himself. with his ethnic community in many of the ways Easton discusses,

12 POLITICAL COMMITMENT IN A HETEROGENEOUS NATION

there may not be a national community to serve as an object of individual commitment. Thus the present model views the object or locus of the individual’s involvement as a variable rather than a given. In Yugoslavia, the site of the present research, a nation comprised of groups with diverse ethnic, political and religious backgrounds, ethnic differences correspond closely to the division of the nation-state into semi-autonomous political subunits, or “states.” In such a nation-state the present model assumes that the individual’s commitment may either be to the republic—the nation-state as a whole—or to the state of which he is a citizen and which is comprised primarily of persons who share his ethnic, religious and historical background. One of the purposes of this study was to test hypotheses about variations in the locus or object of commitment under these conditions. In order to illustrate the general discussion above, we will briefly discuss political

commitment in the United States, and then turn to a short description of Yugoslavia.

Political Commitment and Federal-State Conflict

In the United States, commitment seems to be primarily to the federal political system (DeLamater, et al., 1969); commitment to a specific state appears to be relatively weak, and subordinated to national commitment with a possible exception among residents of the South. The reasons are quite consistent with the conceptual scheme. First, the relatively great geographic and social mobility of recent decades has interfered with the forming of strong ties with state or region. Moreover, there has been no major immigration into the United States since 1920, and many immigrants have been assimilated into the general American culture. These antecedents have produced a relatively common socialization, in which the symbols refer to the United States rather than to specific states and the responses to the symbols are common among American citizens. Second, the norms and ideology of American politics are common to all states, and the political subsystems are clearly subordinate to the centralized federal government. Also, it is at the federal level that the criteria, duties and rights of citizenship are prescribed, through the federal Constitution. Finally, rewards from participation in the political system are strongest at the federal level. Direct financial aid to citizens in many forms and large investments in resources such as highways, parks and housing come from the federal

government. Thus symbols, norms, values and rewards are primarily oriented toward the federal government. In this situation, the modes of commitment are mutually supportive and uniformly oriented toward the same object. The Yugoslav states

Yugoslavia, on the other hand, diverges markedly from the American situation. First, it consists of six dissimilar states and two autonomous regions. Two states, Serbia and Montenegro, are predominantly Eastern Orthodox in religion, and part of the cultural sphere of Middle or Eastern Europe. Both states were primarily agricultural until the end of World War II; Montenegro remains agricultural while Serbia has undergone marked industrial development since 1945. The two states

THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT 13

differ in that Serbia was independent during the nineteenth century, and therefore able to build a stable internal political system, and strong values of independence. Thus Serbia was the center of the twentieth-century movement toward Yugoslavian unity, due in part to its history of independence, and many of those who fought

with the Partisans in the Resistance (1941-1945) were Serb. Serbia is third in industrial development of the Yugoslav states, and has the largest population of the six states (Federal Institute of Statistics, 1968). These circumstances placed Serbia in an excellent position to dominate the federal government of Yugoslavia; to what extent it has done so, however, is subject to debate. Slovenia and Croatia are situated in northwestern Yugoslavia, and share a primarily Western European cultural history. Prior to 1918, both had a long tradition of political ties with and cultural similarity to Austria and both are predominantly Roman Catholic. They possessed a more highly developed industrial economy prior to World War II, and are therefore less agricultural and rural than are southern and eastern Yugoslavia. Industrialization in both states was advanced by their possession of readily usable natural resources—including wood, coal, and a developed fishing industry. Slovenia and Croatia, both before and after World War II, had a more

important tourist industry than did the other states, and were thus much more open to outside communication and influence. Traditionally, they have been the richest of the Yugoslavian states. Slovenia has traditionally had its own language, which differs from the language spoken in Serbia and Croatia. The remaining two states, Bosnia and Macedonia, were the least developed in

Yugoslavia prior to World War II. Both are mountainous, with the result that facilities for internal communication and travel are poor, and even poorer are the facilities connecting them with other states. Their economic structure was historically almost exclusively agricultural, land holdings being for the most part small and the land relatively unproductive. The lack of economic resources appears to have hampered cultural development severely. At any rate, at the time of World War II, very little cultural, artistic progress had been made in either state, and both were characterized by high rates of illiteracy. Today, these states are still the least advanced in these respects, though the federal government has made large local eco-

nomic investments, and has done much to stimulate and improve educational opportunities. Post-war development

The Communists’ resistance to the German Occupation during World War II was so successful that at its termination they found themselves in effective control of the entire country, with a widespread popular following. After the war, Tito established a highly centralized government organized on Communist political principles.

Federal control of most activities was strong and relatively complete, and the political system was almost entirely organized along uniparty lines, with party membership relatively restricted. Thus the dominant political values were oriented toward Yugoslavian unity and Communism. Major symbols were the flag, Tito, other leaders of the “Revolution” or Party, and certain other symbols of the Party. Rewards, both material and symbolic, were almost exclusively distributed by the

14 POLITICAL COMMITMENT IN A HETEROGENEOUS NATION

federal government, either directly to government employees and party members, or indirectly through government and party organizations to other citizens. The dominant norms were set by the federal government and uniformly applied to all citizens of Yugoslavia.

Due partly to a relative failure of government programs to produce rapid development, and in part to strong criticism by influential party members (cf. Djilas, 1957), the Yugoslavian system began to change in the mid-1950’s. The centralized,

bureaucratic structure of the government was proving to be highly inefficient, partly because political posts were allocated on the basis of party membership and loyalty rather than of technical expertise. Moreover, the government was coming under increasingly strong criticism for its control of the news media and the lack of

freedom under which most citizens lived. In addition, there was a continuing dispute with the Soviet Union: because Yugoslavia refused to accept the status of a subordinate satellite, relations with Russia, broken off in 1948, were poor through 1955, leading Yugoslavia to turn to the West and particularly the United States for technological and financial aid. This, in turn, increased the openness of the system

to information about and the products of more capitalistic and democratically organized societies. These influences resulted in marked changes in both the dominant values and the

organization of the political system. Increasingly, influential party members and intellectuals called for more humanistic, democratic values, and there has emerged a fairly coherent Socialist ideology which emphasizes the freedom of the individual, his right to self-determination, the necessities of life, and an adequate standard of living. The political system has moved increasingly toward decentralization. Consid-

erable power has been given back to the states, with a resulting increase in the control of economic and social policy at state and local levels. Similarly, there has been a strong trend toward the decentralization of economic organizations, with “self-management” groups of workers and managers made responsible for both policy and operating decisions in many industrial-commercial organizations. These trends were stabilized in recent years by the adoption of a Constitution in 1963 which prescribes a Socialist democracy rather than a dictatorship of the proletariat; by the activation of a Yugoslavian equivalent of the U.S. Senate, where each state is equally represented; and by the release from prison of Djilas, one of the original and most vocal critics of Communist totalitarianism and bureaucracy. While the present system is still evolving, certain relevant characteristics are evident. Unity and Socialism still provide a common ideology throughout most of Yugoslavia. However, the increasing power of the states to make policy and laws has allowed the somewhat unique ethnic-cultural history of each state to regain influence in its internal affairs. Thus many laws, e.g., concerning behavior in public places, are now set up locally and are more often consistent with the history of the people in that region than with any general ideology. Similarly, rewards are given primarily through self-management groups where one is employed; there are few

direct rewards to the people from the federal government, outside of those to employees of the federal political system. Finally, the reestablishment of local autonomy has allowed local and regional symbols—language, local heroes, etc.—to

THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT 15

regain prominence, reducing the effectiveness of commitment through symbols common throughout the federal republic. Thus Yugoslavia today exhibits a mixed political structure. Because of the association of ethnic differences with semi-autonomous political units, the locus of commitment is expected to differ among the various types. Logically, strength and type of commitment are assumed to be independent of locus of commitment. One can be highly committed, e.g., symbolically or functionally, and be primarily oriented to the state political system, or to the federal system. Conversely, one could be alienated, but from either the federal or state system. Applying the conceptualization outlined above to contemporary Yugoslavia allows one to make predictions about the orientation associated with each type of commitment. Hypotheses

The first four hypotheses concern the locus of commitment, whether the individual is primarily oriented to the state or to the federal republic. I. Those who are ideologically committed are oriented to .the republic. The conceptual basis of this prediction is the common ideology, which sets positive values on Yugoslavian unity and on Socialism. These values appear to be dominant throughout all six states. Il. Those who are symbolically committed are oriented to the state. The diverse cultural-ethnic histories of the six states have produced differences in the content

of symbols and rituals representing them. Prior to 1940, public education was virtually nonexistent, and the socialization of children by the family was, therefore, to the symbols of the ethnic group. Between 1945 and 1960, however, children could be socialized to symbols which represent the Republic of Yugoslavia as a

whole. Yet the control of the schools remained to some extent under the state political systems, and parents undoubtedly remained the major socializing agents. It

is therefore likely that, even during this period, most children were socialized at least in part to the symbols of the state itself. Almond and Powell (1966) recognize the tremendous difficulty confronting the schools in displacing local traditions, even when the state has considerable control over the educational system. Finally, since 1960 the regaining of power by state and local political systems has allowed regional symbols and rituals to regain importance, and it is assumed that most children born recently are being predominantly socialized to them; however, this assumption cannot be tested with the present data. (il. The locus of commitment of the functionally committed varies as a function of which political unit provides the individual’s material and psychological rewards. Thus in Yugoslavia functional commitment is hypothesized to be to the republic in states where federal investments are large, to the state where federal investments are small. As indicated above, the development of functional commitment depends upon understanding and possessing a desire for the rewards obtainable from a political system. In those states of Yugoslavia where the federal government has made large economic and other contributions, rewards to a considerable extent have come from the federal government. Attempts by the federal govern-

ment to stimulate regional development should be expected to have produced

16 POLITICAL COMMITMENT IN A HETEROGENEOUS NATION

relatively more openness to information about both other states within Yugoslavia | and other political systems; in effect, system openness (cf. Katz and Kahn, 1966) ought to be greater in regions where the federal government has done most to stimulate development. More specifically, functionally committed individuals in Slovenia and Croatia should be primarily committed to the state; in these regions, due to their originally greater development, federal investments have been relatively small. On the other hand, those who are functionally committed in Serbia and especially in Macedonia, should be committed to the republic, since federal investments in these two states have been relatively large. A possible qualification is that since Serbs tend to see themselves as controlling the federal government, they may perceive Serbia and Yugoslavia as relatively equivalent concepts; in this case, those who are functionally committed may be committed to the state, in the belief that recent growth and development is due to Serbian influence on the federal government. IV. The locus of normative commitment varies as a function of the relative development of the state. Specifically, we hypothesize that normative commitment

is to the state in the least developed regions, but to the republic in the most developed regions. Again, system openness is assumed to mediate the locus of normative commitment. The most highly developed states are assumed to have effective large-scale means of communication both internally and between themselves and other states. This openness to communication and commerce should allow for the development of relatively common norms across states. Moreover, economic development is generally accompanied by the growth of bureaucratic organizations, which are organized around and operate on the basis of generalized norms. On the other hand, the least developed states are expected to have poor means of communication and travel, and therefore to be more isolated from the influence of larger (federal) system norms. Thus, system openness is the mediating variable of the locus of normative commitment, and economic development is taken as an empirical index of the openness of the Yugoslavian states.

The next four hypotheses deal with the antecedents of each type of commitment in the individual. We are concerned here with factors in a given individual’s history and present social circumstances which make a given mode of commitment dominant in him. V. Functional commitment increases as the individual’s contact and experiences with the larger system increase, Functional commitment is hypothesized above to

be to either the state or the republic, depending upon the source of rewards. It should increase with a) increase in education, b) greater frequency and extent of travel, c) urban vs. rural residence. The importance of education as an antecedent of

functional commitment was verified in an American sample in the community study (DeLamater, et al., 1969). Presumably, education, particularly at the college level, exposes the individual to new information about the larger system of which he is a part, and produces in him an understanding of the rewards of participating in it. Individuals who have traveled to other states in Yugoslavia or to other countries, or who live in urban areas should also have had greater exposure to information

about the country and the rewards available to citizens. In the case of urban residents, greater access to mass communication should aid in this process.

THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT 17

VI. Ideological commitment increases as a result of experiences which make system values salient to the individual. In the case of Yugoslavia, ideological commitment increases specifically with a) experience as a Partisan in the Resistance, b) party membership, and c) age (ie., being over 40). Ideological commitment is also hypothesized to be to the republic. Those who fought in the Resistance under Tito during World War II are expected to have strong ideological commitment to the federal republic; it was in part for these ideals and values that they fought long and hard. Even with the recent changes in ideology, the Yugoslav political system is much closer to that envisioned by the Partisans than it is to the system which existed prior to the war. Similarly, those who are members of the party presumably are highly committed to the ideals and values for which it and the republic stand. Finally, age is important since those over 40 are old enough to remember the war of Resistance and the Communist values which became central to it. It is assumed that

those in the country at that time who were strongly opposed to the Communist ideology either left or were imprisoned when Tito’s government was firmly established in 1945. Thus those over 40 who remain are assumed to be characterized by relatively high commitment to the ideology. VII. Symbolic commitment is highest among those with least contact with the larger system. Specifically, in Yugoslavia, we expect symbolic commitment to be highest among a) rural residents, and b) the members of lower occupational and educational groups. The rural residents of the various states and those in the lower occupational and educational categories are presumably least likely to have opportunities to travel, to meet people from other regions and states, and/or to develop

the cognitive skills necessary to understand and appreciate the ideology or the personal rewards of participation in the political system. Moreover, these individuals will have probably had only a primary education or less, and will thus have been socialized mainly by their parents and by locally administered schools. Thus their commitment should be symbolic, and to the state in which they reside, as hypothesized above.

VIII. Normative commitment is highest among those with extensive contact with large-scale organizations. Specifically, we hypothesize that it is high among a) workers in large organizations, and b) residents of urban areas. Workers in large organizations have considerable experience with generalized norms and related sanctions. Also, by Yugoslav law, all organizations with more than 30 employees are operated by self-management, and thus their members work under rules set by their co-workers. As such, they are expected to be highly sensitive to the rules, and their

commitment to any larger system should be mediated by the self-management system of which they are a part. They are most likely to be normatively committed to either the state or their local group. While many residents of large urban areas are also employed in large decentralized organizations, it is expected that these two antecedents will be independently related to normative commitment, with differing loci. Urban residence is presumed to produce this type of commitment since the

individual’s daily activities are for the most part carried out inside or under the control of bureaucratic organizations, and both his personal and commercial relationships are controlled by common norms rather than by ties of friendship and kinship. Furthermore, urban areas are more open to influence from and informa-

18 POLITICAL COMMITMENT IN A HETEROGENEOUS NATION

tion about the large system (i.e., the republic), due to higher penetration of mass media, contact through trade relations, and the like. Thus urban residents are most likely to be committed to the republic. These are the basic hypotheses. They were developed prior to the collection of the data, and the research was designed specifically to test them, in part. They are primarily concerned with variations in the nature and intensity of the individual’s commitmeht to the political system, and with its locus. The relationship between type or locus of commitment and several other potentially relevant variables will also be considered; however, specific predictions have not been made concerning these relationships because the conceptualization, in conjunction with the varied characteristics of Yugoslavia, does not clearly indicate what outcome to expect. The variables to be considered include income, occupation, and the extent of the respondent’s involvement in organizations.

THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT 19

CHAPTER IV

METHODS AND PROCEDURES The conceptual framework was tested by administering an interview schedule to a sample of Yugoslavs. The survey was carried out by the Public Opinion Research Center in Belgrade in May and June of 1968. Questionnaire

The original version of the questionnaire included questions to measure each type of involvement considered in the model, some of which were similar to those used in earlier research (DeLamater, et al., 1969). The majority of items were of the fixed-alternative form, which was employed to facilitate the interviewing and coding stages of the research, and because it is the standard form of the Public Opinion Research Center. Standard demographic items were also included. The original version was pretested with 50 interviews obtained in each of four states: Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia and Macedonia. One-half of the respondents in each state were urban residents; the other half were rural. The pretest interviewing was directed by a local social scientist, and carried out by experienced interviewers who were allowed to select the respondents with the stipulation that the persons inter-

viewed be strangers. On the basis of these 200 interviews, the questionnaire was revised extensively. The second version was also pretested by obtaining SO interviews in each. of the four states, with the same directions for the selection of respondents. These were generally performed by the same interviewers. On the basis of the results of this second phase, additional revisions were made.

Using the data from the 400 pretest interviews, the interrelations of all items designed to measure a given type of commitment were computed separately for each of the four states. These results indicated that the integration items were

20 THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT

satisfactorily related, with the exception of the items designed to measure normative commitment; thus three of these items were replaced. It was also found that the symbolic items showed no significant interrelations in Slovenia; five items were therefore added to the schedule used there. The revisions made following the second pretest produced an interview schedule about 60 minutes long, containing approximately 120 separate items, seven of them open-ended. Counter-balanced ordering was used with 21 items where bias was considered likely, due to differential social desirability or complexity of the alternatives. These differential orders were randomly combined into two forms of the schedule, each form containing 10 (11) of the items with the most desirable or complex alternative first, and 11 (10) with the most desirable or complex alternative last.

Translation

The original interview schedule was written in English and translated into Serbian. Field directors in the other three states, each of whom was a psychologist or sociologist, translated the schedule into the local language from Serbian. Appropriate changes were made in these translations prior to the second pretest and to the field work. When the field director was satisfied with his translation of the final form of the instrument, an independent translation was made from the local language back to English. The four “back translations” were scrutinized carefully prior to the preparation and distribution of the final interview schedule. In cases where the wording differed appreciably from the original English text, the necessary changes were made in the local language version; such changes were rare.

Interviewing Staff

The interviewing staff maintained by the Public Opinion Research Center was employed. Each interviewer was originally selected by and was responsible to a field director in the local area. The directors were social scientists with advanced train-

ing, most of whom had previous experience with survey research. The criteria employed by the directors in interviewer selection included education, positive motivation toward research, and necessary interpersonal abilities. Candidates also had to study a manual on interviewing procedures prepared by the Center, and pass a standard test on it. The interviewing staff consisted primarily of young men, drawn largely from among the professions, such as school teachers and social workers. A successful attempt was made to exclude government and party officials from the staff. A training program for the interviewers was developed for the present study. A manual was prepared which made clear the general purposes and anticipated problems, while avoiding indicating that any specific types of answers were expected or desirable. Each interviewer played the role of both interviewer and respondent, under the direction of the field director. Finally, each interviewer was required to pass a standard test dealing with the survey instrument.

METHODS AND PROCEDURES 21

Sample

A number of considerations led the investigators to limit the present research to four of the six states in Yugoslavia, and to exclude the two autonomous regions. The autonomous areas were excluded because they are enclaves consisting primarily of ethnic minorities. The optimum sample size, about 1,600 persons, meant that efforts would have to be focused on four states if the number of respondents was to be large enough to allow detailed analyses. Serbia and Croatia, since they contain

over 60 percent of the population of Yugoslavia (Federal Institute of Statistics, 1968), were essential to the sample. In addition, the relatively complex nature of some of the questions made moderate levels of literacy desirable. Since Slovenia has the highest literacy rate (98.2 percent) of all states and is the most industrialized, it was included. Of the remaining three states, Macedonia was selected because it has relatively greater literacy and is ethnically purer than the other two.”

After the selection of these four—Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia and Macedonia—it was decided to concentrate the interviews further in each state. On the basis of extensive study (Center for Demographic Research, 1963), Yugoslavia has been divided into some 80 demographic regions. These regions are relatively equal in population, averaging 200,000 persons, and their populations are homogenous with respect to history, religion and ethnicity. These regions serve as the basic sampling unit of the Public Opinion Research Center.

Slovenia and Macedonia contain populations of 1,700,000 (8.5 percent) and 1,600,000 (8.0 percent) respectively, and each is divided by the Center into seven regions. In each state, one region was dropped from the sample because the indigenous ethnic group (Slovenes and Macedonians, respectively) did not comprise at least 70 percent of the regional population. Four hundred interviews were divided among the remaining six regions in each state, 100 in the region containing the largest city, and 60 in each of the other five regions. In Serbia and Croatia, the selection of regions to be sampled was complicated by

the fact that their much larger populations are divided into a larger number of regions, 20 and 16, respectively. In order to obtain enough cases to carry out statistical analyses by region, it was decided to limit interviews to eight regions in each. The first basis for inclusion of a region was its ethnic composition, a criterion which led to the elimination of six regions in Croatia, and two in Serbia. In Croatia, two additional regions were eliminated, one because it contained no urban area with a population of 5,000, and one because no interviewer was available. In Serbia,

ten additional regions were eliminated on the basis of one of two criteria: an illiteracy rate greater than 25 percent (four regions), or similarity with other regions as to basic demographic characteristics—location, literacy, infant mortality, and

percentage of population in urban areas (six regions). | Again, 100 interviews were conducted in the region containing the principal city. Serbia and Croatia also contain one and two secondary urban centers, respectively, and so 60 interviews were allocated to the regions containing them. The remaining five regions in Croatia and six regions in Serbia were allocated 40 interviews each, making a total of 420 interviews in Croatia and 400 in Serbia.

99) THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT

Within each region, the Center staff chose one urban area which they considered the functional (i.e., commercial and cultural) center. This was usually the largest urban area in the region. A rural sampling point was selected from villages near the

one. ,

urban area. In each region selected, two-thirds of the respondents were to be residents of the urban sampling point and the remaining third residents of the rural

The interviewer(s) in each region were instructed to list every voting precinct (each precinct contains some 300 voters) in the urban and the rural sampling points. From this list, four urban and four rural precincts were randomly selected

(in the latter, if there were only four precincts or fewer, all were used). The interviewer then obtained the registration lists for each of the selected precincts; voting rolls contain 90 percent to 95 percent of the population over 18 years of age. Dividing the total number of interviews allocated to the area by four yielded the number of interviews desired in each precinct. He then divided the number of persons in the precinct by the number of interviews desired, obtaining the sampling factor. He randomly selected the first name on each precinct roll, and took every

Xth name thereafter up to the desired number of cases. Interviewers were instructed to eliminate anyone whose name indicated that he was not a member of the region’s dominant ethnic group.

Fach name thus selected was used as the source of a dwelling unit for an interview. The interviewer was instructed to interview the most highly educated person in that household,* not to interview anyone younger than 18 nor older than 65, and to obtain two-thirds of his interviews with men and one-third with women. The latter stipulation was deemed desirable because men are more likely than women to participate in political discussion with co-workers and therefore to have information as well as firm opinions on political issues. To provide a control, the interviewer listed each address selected at the time the sample was drawn, as well as the following address as an alternate, and the list was

immediately sent to the field director. The interviewer could use the alternative address only if all persons in the first household were inappropriate or absent for an extended period. In all cases where no one could be interviewed at the first address, the interviewer was required to notify the field director and explain the reason. The field director also compared the address of each interview against the list originally submitted by the interviewer.

The sample thus obtained overrepresents the male, urban and better educated segments of the population. By implication, these persons are younger, perhaps more likely to have migrated to the cities, and to exhibit attendant differences in motives and attitudes. These biases are known, and were considered justifiable, partly on the basis of ease of interviewing as gauged by rapport with the interviewer, ability to understand the questions, and the possession of enough information about some issues to respond validly. There is also a conceptual basis for such overrepresentation. These persons are likely to be what Easton (1965) defines as

the “politically relevant members” of a system, “those... who can be said to count or whose attitudes need to be taken into consideration” by system authorities. Essentially, our wish to measure the commitment of such members led us to the sampling procedures and criteria employed.

METHODS AND PROCEDURES 23

Interviewing All interviews were performed during the ten-day period of May 13 to May 23,

1968. No major events occurred during this period which might have changed respondents’ opinions.

In each case where the respondent was illiterate, the question was repeated at least twice, as were the response alternatives, with emphasis on key words. These key words were underlined in the schedule, and were standard in all four states. After the interview was completed the answers were checked in the presence of the respondent to insure that there were no omissions, or to clarify any ambiguities. The schedules were immediately passed on to the field director, who also checked them for clarity, completeness and logical consistency. If the director was not satisfied, the schedule was returned to the interviewer to be completed properly. The director also checked at the address of every fifth interview to insure that the interview had actually been obtained from the appropriate person in the household. Completed interviews were mailed to Belgrade, where all coding and keypunching were performed. Measures of Development Two measures of socioeconomic development are available for each region. First,

the infant mortality rate is available by region from 1959 data (Center for Demographic Research, 1963), and by state from 1967 data (Federal Institute of Statistics, 1968). The range in the regions sampled is from 21.2 to 146.5 deaths per thousand live births. Demographers in Yugoslavia believe that this is one of the best single indicators of development, and report that it correlates highly with other socioeconomic indices (Bolcic, 1968). The second measure is based on an extensive analysis of regional demographic characteristics by Bolcic (1966). Employing characteristics of urban areas (defined as areas with populations of 5,000 or more), especially measures of the occupa-

tional and educational structure, he has identified six types of urbanization or economic development. Each type consists of regions with similar characteristics, and the regions within each type are geographically contiguous. The types and their

primary characteristics are shown in Table 1, with the order from left to right indicating increasing economic development. Note, for example, the systematic increase in the percentage economically active and percentage “industrially educated” (which Bolci¢ employs as an indication of a modern orientation to the economy) as one moves from left to right in the table. Also, the percentage of farmers in urban areas (with the marked exception of Panonian type) and the percentage “noneducated” (i.e., less than three years of school) systematically declines from left to right. It is such differences which led him to conclude that the progression from the Balkan-Oriental type to the Industrial-Western type is a progression from the least to the most economically developed. This index was employed for two reasons. First, it is multidimensional, and thus avoids the weaknesses of other single measures such as average income. (Many rural Yugoslavs live, at least partly, in a barter rather than a money economy.) Second, Bolcic’s work was widely recommended by Yugoslav social scientists as a meaningful index of development.

24 THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT

Table 1

Statistical Characteristics of Urban Populations, by Type of Urbanization’

Type of Urbanization

Balkan Dinaro- Panon- Mediter- Industrial

Characteristic Oriental Bosnian Serbian ian ranean Western

% Nonmigrants 54.7 48.6 32.3 42.9 40.1 36.5 % Economically 35.6 41.6 46.5 48.9 50.3 53.7 Active

Among Economically Active:

% Farmers 11.6 5.3 6.0 16.4 5.3 3.4

% Blue-Collar 37.4 37.9 38.2 35.5 32.7 41.5

% Service 12.4 13.2 12.0 11.7 15.8 12.4 Workers

% White-Collar 26.7 28.2 28.4 20.3 28.0 24.4 % Uneducated? 30.9 25.6 19.3 18.2 17.0 9.2

% Industrially 6.2 12.6 12.9 13.7 12.0 17.3 Educated

Size (in1,000s) 17.3 13.1 19.4 24,7 20.4 12.3

Places 32 33 27 34 12 20

Number of Urban

‘Data are unweighted means. From Bolcic, 1966. * Of those over ten years of age. Of the six types which Bolci¢ distinguishes, five are represented in our sample by three to eight regions of each type. Urban areas of the Balkan type are characterized by relatively large populations

with the least immigration and the lowest percentage economically active. Thus there is high population concentration but about two-thirds of the population is economically dependent; and those who work are primarily blue- and white-collar workers. A very small percentage has an industrial, i.e.; modern, education. Urban places of the Serbian type are also large, but almost one-half of their populations are active, and twice as many persons as in the Balkan type have had industrial education. These localities are large provincial centers, with primarily administrative economic activity and with high immigration. The Panonian urban places are similar

in the proportion economically active, but even in urban areas there are a higher percentage of farmers and fewer white-collar workers than in any other type. The agricultural activity in cities reflects the predominant activity of the entire region: many of those employed depend on high farming output, directly or indirectly. The Mediterranean urban centers are characterized by populations in which half are

METHODS AND PROCEDURES 25

economically active, of which over one-quarter are white-collar workers; these centers have the highest percentage of service workers. This occupational structure reflects the fact that trade and tourism are the principal activities on the Adriatic coast. Finally, the Industrial centers are the most developed, by Western standards; over half of their population is economically active, and they contain the highest percentages of industrially educated and blue-collar workers. The lowest percentage of “noneducated”’ is found in these areas, reflecting the availability of and motivation for education characteristic of developed regions. Also, these regions on the average have the smallest populations. Thus two measures of development are available. Infant mortality rates can be used as a relatively fine measure, since they allow distinctions between specific

regions. The Bolcic typology will be used where more general distinctions are desired between groups of regions. Note that his typology parallels the distribution of regions by state. All of the regions sampled in Macedonia are classified as Balkan, all in Serbia as Serbian. However, he believes that his typology is more refined as a measure of development: in an analysis of the differences in percentage economically active, an F of 54.4 (p< .001) was obtained when regions were classified by

type, and an F of 26.1 (p NN

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30 THE MEASURE OF COMMITMENT

for Variables 323-328 and 332; for those who were neither employed nor heads of households, the index consists of the sum of scores for Variables 329-331, multiplied by two for the purposes of equivalence, plus the score for 332. Thus equivalent indices are available across states, and for 1,308 of the 1,604 respondents. The remaining respondents are not represented in subsequent analyses involving functional indices, since they did not respond to two or more of the index items (one or more in the case of those responding to 329-331). While the number of items is the

same across states, differences in mean and standard deviation of index scores between states make it impossible to combine or compare regions from different states. Thus in order to analyze differences between the Bolci¢ types of urban areas,

scores were standardized into Z scores. For analyses within states, the original unstandardized index was utilized. Ideological Commitment Scales

The ideological items were also intercorrelated at highly significant levels, and

they had high loadings on a common factor in all states. The scoring scheme adopted was a scale of from one to five, five being the score given the response presumed most indicative of ideological commitment (see Appendix 1).

The items having been appropriately scored, correlations were computed between them for the total sample (Table 3). The correlations obtained within each state are similar. However, on the basis of correlations and factor analyses of these items, three of them (333, 339, 340) are index items in one or more states, but not in all.

In Slovenia, items 333 and 339 had substantial loadings on both the ideological

factor and on a factor comprised primarily of normative items, and so were excluded. Item 340, while generally showing low correlations with ideological items, was included because it loaded only on the ideological factor, suggesting that its content is related to these items. In Croatia, item 339 was not included because

it did not load above .20 on the ideological factor; 340 was included because it again loaded only on this factor. In Serbia item 340 did not load on the ideological factor, and its correlations with other items were insignificant, so it was excluded.

Finally, in Macedonia, item 339 was excluded because it did not load on the ideological factor, but had a substantial loading on a factor including several norma-

tive items. Item 340 was excluded because of its insignificant correlations with other items, and the failure to load on the factor comprised of ideological items. The variation in the number of items does not affect within-state analyses, so the

index as obtained from summing scores on the appropriate items was employed. However, standardized scores were used for between-region comparisons. As with the functional items, there is here a potential problem of bias due to the

common form of six of the ideological items.° Again, the bias should have a uniform effect on all items, and thus is most likely to raise an individual’s score to the extent he believes it desirable to take an interest in these issues, or consistently picks the first response. One indication that the correlations are not entirely due to common form is in the generally highly significant correlations of 339 with these

items, and in the positive factor loadings of 340 on the ideological factor in

THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT 31

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Correlations were computed among basic indices for those who had traveled, and those who had not, in the total sample and in each state. In general, no significant differences in the direction of the correlations, and no differences in magnitude of greater than .15 were found. Thus travel does not appear to affect the relationships between these indices.

In sum, the effects of travel on the relationships between the variables of concern appear to be generally insignificant. Travel is associated with higher socioeconomic and educational status, as one would expect; it is also associated with significantly greater ideological commitment and organizational involvement. It is likely that the relationship between travel and ideological commitment is due to the associated differences in status and activity rather than to the effect of travel per se. Finally, the relationship between travel and the functional commitment predicted by Hypothesis V was found only in Macedonia; the proposition does not appear to have general validity, at least within the limits of the present data.

Urban-Rural Differences

Three of the hypotheses relating demographic factors to commitment include specific predictions about differences between urban and rural residents. Table 22 presents the means of the major indices of urban and rural respondents, by state.

Urban residents differ consistently from rural ones on the socioeconomic measures; in all four states urban residents reported significantly larger incomes, the difference in mean incomes ranging from .50 to .14, reflecting income differences of 10,000 to 20,000 New Dinars per month (eight to sixteen dollars, respectively). Urban residents also own significantly more major consumer goods (p. 8 o oO ©s Sae a Soe ESe 288 aeeg $8 £35 &FSUR SE HS ee ee ee ee

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THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT 65

developed states (Tables 8 and 9). There is essentially no difference in the state locus means for urban and rural residents in Slovenia and Croatia; in Serbia and Macedonia the average for rural residents is significantly greater, with w* values of .0O1 and .03, respectively. Thus the prediction that symbolic commitment will be higher among rural residents is confirmed, at least in the three less developed states, both by urban-rural differences and by overall increases in symbolic score in less developed states. In the two least developed states there is also greater commitment to the state, though the evidence is not as consistent in supporting this element of the hypothesis.

Hypothesis VIII posited in part that normative commitment among urban residents is high and to the republic. The examination above of differences in federal locus indicated that there is no consistent urban-rural difference on this index. The mean differences in normative score are inconsistent. While the normative average is significantly greater of urban residents in Slovenia, it is significantly smaller of urban residents in Macedonia, with no difference in Croatia and Serbia. This aspect of Hypothesis VIII is not confirmed by the data. Thus the predicted relationships between rural residence and symbolic commitment were found, but those involving functional and normative commitment were

not verified. These findings are consistent with the results presented earlier. Symbolic and ideological scores generally show patterns of differences and intercor-

relations which were predicted by or were consistent with the conceptualization, while the results involving functional and normative scores are less consistent. In the case of normative scores, this perhaps reflects the generally lower item intercorrelations themselves, implying that this scale is not measuring a unified construct. There is also a possibility that the conceptualization of normative commitment in Yugoslavia is not as detailed and differentiated as it should be. The failure of the prediction involving functional commitment is more surprising, and raises questions which will be considered in the final chapter. Size of Organization

Tables 23 through 26 contain the correlations with which the remainder of this chapter will be concerned, with the data presented by individual state. (The intercorrelations of the commitment indices were presented in Tables 11-14. The size of the organization in which the respondent is employed is the last row in each table; the item and response categories are indicated in Appendix IV.) One element of Hypothesis VIII was discussed in the section on urban-rural differences. The other part predicted that normative commitment is higher among workers in large organizations, the commitment being to the state. As the correlations in Tables 23-26 indicate, there is essentially no relationship between organiza-

tional size and normative commitment, nor are there significant correlations between this variable and scores on the state locus index. Thus, this part of Hypoth-

esis VIII is also not verified by the data. : There are, however, other relationships involving size of work organization which are fairly consistent. Size correlates significantly and positively with ideologi-

cal score in all states except Croatia, possibly reflecting the extent to which self-

66 THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT

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RESULTS: COMMITMENT AND DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS 67

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70 RESULTS: COMMITMENT AND DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS

management, the running of organizations by representatives of all grades and types

of employees, has been successfully implemented in larger organizations. Selfmanagement is a key element in the socialist democratic ideology which has developed in Yugoslavia over the past 15 years, and for several years has been required by law in all organizations with more that 30 employees. When sex and education are controlled, the positive relationship between size and ideological score is found only among males (r = .13 to .27) and those with little education (r = .12 to .27); for the latter, working in a large organization (presumably run by self-management workers’ councils) can produce ideological commitment, as an effect of the increased power of the workers. For those with more education, however, working in a large organization may be frustrating to some extent; propor-

tional representation on workers, councils has markedly reduced the power of managers and professionals, such as engineers, 1’ which if anything may reduce - their ideological commitment. Organizational size is also correlated highly with the socioeconomic indices in Serbia and Macedonia, including occupation, ownership and income. These data are consistent with the suggestion in Chapter VI that the occupational structure is more limited in the less developed states. In this case, positions with higher status and income seem to be found more often in large organizations in Serbia and Macedonia, while in the more developed states such jobs are available in organizations of widely varying size. Again, in all states except Macedonia, the correlations are of larger magnitude (.20 to .65) among those with less education; relationships are smaller or essentially zero among the better educated. It is the effect of education, in conjunction with other socioeconomic indices, which we will now consider in detail. Socioeconomic Factors Relationships with commitment indices

Parts of two hypotheses attribute differences in commitment to education. Hypothesis V states in part that functional commitment increases with educa-

tion, and that it is to the republic. The data in Tables 23-26 do not show a consistent relationship between education and functional score; the correlation is nonsignificant in Slovenia and Serbia, and significant but low in Croatia and Macedonia. Education is correlated positively and significantly with federal locus score in Serbia and Macedonia, and negatively with state score in Croatia, Serbia and Macedonia. However, it is related positively to state scores in Slovenia, no doubt, again, a reflection of the local movement for autonomy. Thus the results are mixed with respect to the hypothesis: there is no consistent or strong evidence relating education positively to functional commitment, though better evidence exists that it is related to federal commitment. Hypothesis VII is that symbolic commitment decreases with education. It is verified by the strong negative correlations between these variables in all states except Slovenia.

By contrast, education shows strong and positive correlations with ideological commitment in all four states. Ideological commitment is also related positively to

THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT 71

ownership and occupation (Chapter VI) and to income (Tables 23-26). On the other hand, all of these socioeconomic variables are correlated negatively and strongly with symbolic commitment, and highly and positively with each other. Education does not show a consistent relationship with normative commitment, though there is an interesting pattern. The correlations are .24 in Slovenia, .12 in

Croatia, and near zero in Serbia and Macedonia. Conceivably education tends to produce normative commitment in more developed states, where it can be reinforced by, for example, mass media and impersonal economic relationships as opposed to barter economics. Normative scores do not show consistent significant relations with other socioeconomic variables.

In order to differentiate the effects of the various socioeconomic factors and organizational involvement, partial correlations were computed between occupation, ownership, education, income and organizational involvement as predictor variables, and the four indices of type and two of locus individually as dependent variables (Tables 27-30). Each table contains the partial correlations of the predictor variables with each of the six commitment indices for one state. Table 27 Partial Correlations of Socioeconomic Variables with Commitment Indices: Slovenia

Income Occupa- Owner- Organi- Educa-

Index Variable tion ship zations tion

215 385 386 389 392 R Functional 376 .06 —.09 08 05 04 .18

Ideological 377 .04 07 08 34 17.60

Symbolic 378 —.02 —.08 .09 17 —.07 .22 Normative 380 —.02 02 07 17 08 32 Federal Locus 381 —.04 03 .06 04 OO .11 State Locus 382 —.02 —.01 07 01 11 = =.19 The partial correlations of education with functional score support the conclusion that, contrary to Hypothesis V, there is no significant positive relationship between them. There are, however, small yet significant positive partial correlations

between income and functional score in Croatia, and between occupation and functional score in Serbia and Macedonia.

, The data also indicate that education by itself is not related significantly to symbolic commitment. The strong negative relationships between these two variables (Tables 23-26) are, instead, due to other factors. In three states, Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia, there is a low positive partial correlation between organizational involvement and symbolic score, indicating a tendency for involvement in major sociopolitical organizations to be related to symbolic commitment. The partial correlations confirm the negative relationships discussed in Chapter VI between

72 RESULTS: COMMITMENT AND DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS

Table 28 Partial Correlations of Socioeconomic Variables with Commitment Indices: Croatia

Income Occupa- Owner- Organi- Educa-

Index Variable tion ship zations tion

215 385 386 389 392 R

Functional 376 18 02 —.01 07 —02 .27

Ideological 377 03 —.03 —.01 38 15 = 52 Symbolic 378 —.05 —.27 —.0] 20 05 = .38 Normative 380 06 —.10 —.10 19 13) .26 Federal Locus 381 —.08 00 —.02 30 —~O2 431 State Locus 382 02 —.07 00 —.03 05 .18 Table 29 Partial Correlations of Socioeconomic Variables with Commitment Indices: Serbia

Income Occupa- Owner- Organi- Educa-

Index Variable tion ship zations tion

215 385 386 389 392 R

Functional 376 —.04 11 .08 —.03 —13 .16 Ideological 377 14 —.10 .09 38 12 ~=«.53 Symbolic 378 —.07 —.16 —.02 13 —03 40 Normative 380 —.09 10 — 03 17 —O7 22 Federal Locus 381 —.11 09 19 03 —03 .26 State Locus 382 —,.03 —.06 —.14 —.02 —~.02 .29 Table 30 Partial Correlations of Socioeconomic Variables with Commitment Indices: Macedonia

Income Occupa- Owner- Organi- Educa-

Index Variable tion ship zations tion

215 385 386 389 392 R

Functional 376 05 14 07 —.04 —07 32 Ideological 377 OO 23 —.15 26 —05 47 Symbolic 378 04 09 —.25 —.05 —10 .36 Normative 380 Ol —.08 —.04 09 10 = .13 Federal Locus 381 03 05 —.09 04 11 = .20 State Locus 382 —.03 07 —.07 —.07 —05 .18

THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT 73

occupation/ownership and symbolic scores; the partial correlations indicate that occupation in Croatia and Serbia, and ownership in Macedonia is the basis of these relationships. The multiple correlation of the five factors with symbolic score is .36 to .40 in all states except Slovenia. It was noted above that the correlation between education and normative score declines from significantly positive in Slovenia to zero in Macedonia. The partial correlations indicate that generally there is no relationship between these two variables. In fact, normative scores show no strong relations with any of the socioeco-

nomic factors, although there is a positive partial correlation between organizational involvement and normative score in all states except Macedonia. The relative weakness of these relationships is indicated by the relatively low multiple correlations, the largest being .32.

The five indices are related best to ideological scores, reflecting the same strength of the ideological relationships evident in earlier analyses. The partial correlations indicate, however, that it is not ownership and occupation per se; the strongest and most consistent positive relationship is rather between ideological score and organizational involvement (Variable 389), partial correlations ranging from .26 to .38. This finding supports the interpretation offered above, that the larger mean ideological score of males is a function of their greater organizational involvement. This strong relationship is quite consistent with the conceptualization, and confirms at a more general level the reasoning on which Hypothesis VIb was based.!? The major sociopolitical organizations (listed in Appendix IV) are concerned with national issues and reportedly make strong efforts to educate members concerning these; thus, greater involvement in these organizations produces ideological concerns, and, more generally, commitment to the country. There is a consistent secondary positive relationship between ideological score and education in all states except Macedonia. Ideological commitment can be predicted with the greatest success from the four socioeconomic factors and organizational involvement; the multiple correlations range from .47 to .60. Tables 27 through 30 also present the partial correlations of the socioeconomic measures with federal locus. Generally, there are no substantial, consistent relationships. There is a large and highly significant correlation between the organizational

involvement and federal indices in Croatia, which is unique to that state. In Slovenia none of the socioeconomic measures is related to federal locus, and it will be recalled that Slovenia has the lowest mean on this measure.

Finally, the partial correlations with state locus score of the measures are generally nonsignificant in all states. In Serbia, where the multiple correlation of the five variables with state locus is largest, all of the measures are correlated negatively with state score; and the correlation with ownership is significant. The results involving the two locus variables, including partial correlations, thus present an interesting picture. In Slovenia, the most highly developed state with the lowest average federal score, there are no substantial relationships between these

five socioeconomic variables and federal locus score. This suggests that federal commitment is generally unimportant there, as a result of the movement for autonomy. While Slovenia attains the highest average state score, this index also does

74 RESULTS: COMMITMENT AND DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS

not relate meaningfully to socioeconomic factors, suggesting that the high mean score is produced by ethnic factors. Croatia, a relatively developed state, shows a different pattern. There respondents attain a relatively high average federal score, which is more predictable from the five socioeconomic measures (R = .31) than it is in the other three states. This relationship is based principally on the large positive relationship between organiza-

tional involvement and federal score. Economic factors per se show weak or no relationships with either state or federal scores.

Serbia is the only state in which economic variables are correlated with locus scores. State locus is most predictable in Serbia (2 = .29), and is related negatively

to ownership. At the same time, the latter is correlated positively with federal locus. When these results are related to the fact that Serbs attain the highest average federal score (Table 15), economic improvements suggest themselves as the major instruments of high federal commitment.

Macedonia, with means on both locus indices falling between those of other states, shows relatively low multiple correlations in the socioeconomic measures. Again, the lack of substantial relationships points to ethnicity rather than economic factors as the major determinants of locus of commitment. Interrelationships of socioeconomic indices: a digression

The partial correlations also provide some interesting data on relationships between these five variables. The strong impact of organizational involvement on type and locus of commitment has been discussed. Yet involvement shows generally low correlations with the socioeconomic measures; it is not related independently with

either education or ownership. The absence of strong positive correlations with education is somewhat surprising. Involvement is correlated at relatively low levels (.00 to .22) with income in-all states. It also shows a positive partial correlation with occupation, which increases from Slovenia (.14) to Macedonia (.30), suggest-

ing that the importance of one variable in determining the other decreases as economic development increases.

It was proposed earlier that the occupational structure is more limited in less developed areas, with fewer alternative means of attaining high income and ownership. This is given further support by the fact that the partial correlation of occupation with income is low and insignificant in Slovenia and Croatia, but moderately positive in Macedonia (.20) and high in Serbia (.40); also the partial correlation of ownership with occupation is significant in all four states, generally increasing from Slovenia (.14) to Macedonia (.25). As one would expect, education is correlated

highly with occupation in all four states, with magnitude generally smaller in Slovenia (.58) than in the other three states (.64 to .67). At the same time, the partial correlations of education and ownership are consistently significant and positive in Croatia and Serbia, but not in Slovenia and Macedonia.

This discussion of the relationships between commitment indices and various

demographic factors completes the presentation of data relevant to the eight hypotheses which guided this study and the data analyses. The final chapter will attempt to draw together the results and arrive at some general conclusions.

THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT 75

CHAPTER VIII

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS The results will be summarized in two ways. One is by commitment scale, drawing together the relationships obtained with each of the four types and two loci of commitment. The other is by state. While the two are obviously related, there are differences in emphasis. An analysis by commitment scale tends to emphasize findings common across states, and thus basic aspects of the conceptualization which were or were not confirmed, findings which to some extent are independent of ethnic, developmental and other differences. An analysis by state focuses primar-

ily on Yugoslavia, providing a characterization of each state and the prevailing modes and intensity of commitment among this sample of its residents. Though the distinction is at times artificial, the two sets of results cover nicely the two basic aspects of this research — the conceptualization or model of commitment, and the effect of ethnic heterogeneity on commitment in a developing country. Commitment Scales Functional scale

The functional scale was comprised primarily of items tapping relative satisfaction with various kinds of reward, including the respondent’s salary, community prestige, and the success of his work organization. While these items interrelated at relatively high levels, generally from .20 to .40, and loaded on a common factor in each state, six of the seven items were of common form. Thus construct validity, the extent to which this scale is related to other variables in predicted and conceptually consistent ways, is a necessary indication that this scale measures the conceptual construct and not merely method factors.

76 THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT

Two hypotheses dealt specifically with functional commitment. According to Hypothesis III, functional commitment is correlated positively with federal locus in Macedonia and possibly Serbia, and with state locus in Slovenia; the correlations presented in Tables 10-14 do not verify this hypothesis. Hypothesis V states that functional score is positively associated with 1) travel outside Yugoslavia, 2) urban residence, and 3) more education. Relevant mean differences in functional score and correlations of education with these scores do not support the hypothesis. Statistically significant differences in average functional score were found between states (Table 9) but these were generally one point or less on a 36-point scale. Finally, functional score was not related consistently or strongly to the other variables, including socioeconomic indices and organizational involvement. Thus, while functional score is correlated with some variables at low levels, e.g., income in Croatia and occupation in Serbia and Macedonia (Tables 28-30), it does

not show strong and consistent relationships with relevant variables. It appears, therefore, that the scale used in Yugoslavia does not measure the functional construct adequately enough to override biases of method and/or social desirability elicited by the items. Ideological scale

The ideological scale consisted of items probing how concerned the respondent was with a variety of current ideological issues in Yugoslavia. The items in this scale

were also of common form, and high inter-item correlations and loadings on common factors were obtained in each state. Again, further evidence of construct validity is needed. The relationships found between ideological commitment and other variables consistently demonstrate that a common construct does underlie this scale. Both of the hypotheses which dealt with ideological commitment were verified by the data. Ideological score correlates positively with federal commitment in all four states (.19 to .37) and negatively or insignificantly with state commitment in three of the states, as predicted by Hypotheses I. It also is correlated with age among bettereducated respondents (.12 to .38), as well as with organizational involvement (.39 to .51) as stated by Hypothesis VI. The partial correlations indicate low positive correlations between ideological score and education in all states except Macedonia. There are significant differences in mean ideological scores between travelers and nontravelers, which appear to be due to the greater organizational involvement of those who have traveled. The predictability of this index from organizational involvement and four socioeconomic measures is the greatest among the six commitment scales, with multiple correlations ranging from .47 to .60. Symbolic scale

Several potential symbolic items of varying form were included in the questionnaire. Those included in the scale in each state generally showed inter-item correlations of from .10 to .40, and acceptable factor loadings. These data alone give some indication that a common construct is being measured in the varying types of items. In addition, relationships of this scale with other variables and indices are generally in predicted and conceptually consistent directions. Hypothesis II, that sym-

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS T7

bolic commitment is related to state locus scores, is verified in three states where correlations with state score are stronger (.43 to .56) than with federal (.29 to .38). One prediction of Hypothesis VII, that symbolic commitment is greater in rural than urban areas, is verified, the mean differences being statistically significant in three states (Table 22). A related finding was that symbolic scores increased significantly from the most developed to the least developed states (Table 9), and from the most to least developed type of urban areas (Table 17). The other prediction of Hypothesis VII, that symbolic commitment is negatively related to education, was not verified, however. Several other variables were also related to symbolic score. Symbolic scores were

significantly lower in those who had traveled among respondents in the two states with historically the least Western influence (Serbia and Macedonia). These scores also showed low positive partial correlations with occupation or ownership in three states (Tables 28-30). Generally, the multiple correlations of symbolic scores with the four socioeconomic measures and organizational involvement were strong (.36 to .40) in all states except Slovenia. Thus the symbolic scale appears to have been a satisfactory measure of the construct, both in terms of item analytic results and of relations with other indices. The relevant measures of association, correlation magnitudes, t values, and multiple correlations are uniformly highly significant, though less so than those obtained on the ideological scale. The construct validity of the symbolic scales could doubtless have been improved by asking questions about the respondent’s attitude toward major Yugoslav national symbols, such as President Tito and the Partisan Revolution during the World War II. However, such items were regarded as politically too sensitive for inclusion in the interview schedule. Normative scale

The normative scale appeared least satisfactory from the beginning of the study. When it became evident that the normative items showed no significant relations in the pre-test data, they were extensively revised (Chapter IV). These revisions also appear to have been relatively unsuccessful. The inter-item correlations, with the exception of one pair, were generally between .10 and .20. These items also tended to load on two distinct factors, and loadings were generally among the lowest (.20 to .30). Relationships between this scale and other indices are generally small in magni-

tude and less consistent than the interrelations of the ideological and symbolic scales. Hypothesis IV stated that normative commitment is to the republic in highly | developed areas (i.e., Slovenia and possibly Croatia); this was not clearly verified in any state (Tables 11-14). Nor was Hypothesis VIII, that normative commitment is greater in urban areas and among workers in large organizations, supported by the

data. The partial correlations (Tables 27-30) indicate low positive relationships between normative commitment and organizational involvement. The fact that involvement tends to be correlated with all four type scales probably accounts for the tendency for the normative scale to be correlated with two or all three of the others. Finally, the multiple correlations for predicting normative score from the

78 THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT

socioeconomic and involvement indices are as low as those for functional score (.13 to .32).

Thus the normative scale appears to have little validity as a measure of the construct; the most plausible interpretation attributes its short-comings to the attempt to develop common normative items across four diverse states. While these items dealt with normative issues, such as the importance of respect for the law and the fairness of taxes, they failed to elicit interrelated responses. There may not be national norms; the extent to which norms are still local and ethnic may have been seriously underestimated. This should be particularly evident in less developed areas;

and indeed the number of items which are intercorrelated significantly declines from five in Slovenia to two in Macedonia. Conceivably, the validity of normative measures could be greatly enhanced if different scales were constructed for each state. Locus scales

On the whole, the federal scale seems to have provided a valid measure. The inter-item correlations (Table 6) are positive and highly significant among four of eight items. As noted above, the hypothesis relating federal locus to ideological commitment is nicely verified. Average scores on this index differed significantly between states and by type of urbanization; these variations appear to be due more to ethnicity than to economic development. The multiple correlations (.11 to .31) indicate that federal score is predictable to some extent from involvement and one or more of the four socioeconomic measures. However, the partial correlations of these measures with the federal index are generally low, strengthening the conclusion that variations on the index are a function of ethnic rather than economic

factors. )

The state locus scale is similar to the federal scale in terms of item correlations (Table 7) and relationships with other variables. The hypothesis relating symbolic and state score was verified. Average state score differed significantly between states and types of urbanization, again apparently a consequence of ethnic factors. This interpretation is similarly supported by the generally insignificant partial correlations of the socioeconomic measures with the state index. The multiple correlations of the four socioeconomic measures and involvement with state score are as large as the multiple Rs for federal locus (.18 to .29). Variations by State

As was noted above, in this study the attempt was made to develop questionnaire items which would be applicable throughout Yugoslavia. The discussion of variation by state is largely confined, therefore, to differences on items measuring common factors, which means that the data do not reflect truly unique aspects of commitment in a specific state. It was necessary to narrow the focus in this way, given the general hypotheses and the practical limits to what could be included in a one-hour interview with, in some cases, illiterate respondents. As a result, however, we may have fallen short of obtaining valid measures of normative commitment. The findings of the present study suggest that future research on this topic among distinct ethnic groups should not only focus on commonalities across groups, but

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS 79

should also include appropriate items unique to major groups in an effort to measure both types of variation. Within this limitation, certain differences between the states in the present data can be highlighted. Two relatively consistent trends in all four states point to the

effects of socioeconomic development. The first is the repeated indication that occupational structure is more limited in less developed area. Income is correlated

positively with organizational size in all states, with greater magnitudes in Serbia and Macedonia, where occupation and ownership also show larger positive correlations with size (.44, .33 vs. .28, .29, respectively). The correlation between ownership and occupation also increases from approximately .14 in Slovenia to .27 in Macedonia; income and occupation are correlated significantly in Serbia and Macedonia. Many of these correlations are large and significant in all four states among the less educated. In short, occupations of higher status are limited to large organizations in less developed states, and income and ownership become increasingly dependent on the relative status of occupation there. Thus in less developed areas of Yugoslavia, improvement of economic status depends to a greater degree on access to an occupation of high status — and access is more likely to be in a large organization. At present, access to such occupations in those regions is primarily

through education (the correlation between occupation and education is .58 in Slovenia, .65 in the three remaining states). Those data support the stress in the literature upon education as a means of improving the quality of life in developing areas; they also indicate that the creation of large-scale organizations to employ persons has been important in improving living conditions in Yugoslavia. The other trend is the significant increase in average symbolic score from Slovenia to Croatia and from Croatia to Serbia and Macedonia (Tables 8 and 9). Both overall correlations (Tables 11-14) and partial correlations indicate that this increase is negatively related to increases in occupational status (particularly in Serbia

and Croatia) and/or increases in economic status as measured by ownership of consumer goods (especially in Macedonia). Declining rates of infant mortality are also related to lower symbolic scores in Slovenia and Croatia (Tables 11-12). Finally, as noted above, symbolic means are significantly greater in rural areas of all states except Slovenia. The evidence thus consistently shows that symbolic commitment, as measured by this scale, decreases with increases in economic development. Normative scores show the same increase in means in less developed states, and the same correlations with infant mortality; however, correlations with other indices of development are often not significant, and in view of the questionable nature of this scale no firm conclusions can be drawn. Commitment profiles of states

Slovenia, the most developed state, exhibits the smallest means on all four typeof-commitment scales. It also shows the highest average commitment to the state, and the lowest mean federal commitment; the partial correlations indicate generally insignificant relationships between locus scores and socioeconomic measures (Table 27). The locus averages, and other aspects of the data discussed previously, appear to reflect the movement for increased state autonomy which has gained strength in Slovenia in recent years. While some of the issues are economic, the partial correla-

80 THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT

tions suggest these are not primary correlates, instead, ethnic factors appear to be foremost. Slovenes are an ethnic minority with generally the highest standard of living, and they appear to be the most westernized. These and other differences make them fairly united and disdainful of other ethnic elements in Yugoslavia. Unfortunately, a measure of attitudes toward other Yugoslav groups could not be included; however, a Bogardus scale included in an earlier Public Opinion Center study found significantly greater rejection by Slovenes of eight other ethnic elements. Whether the low means on the four type scales reflect the desire for autonomy and the same hostility toward other groups is not entirely clear. Slovenes are predominantly committed to their state, and least oriented to the federal system. If symbolic and ideological items (the two most valid scales) implicitly include a federal orientation, that is, are concerned with issues or symbols which Slovenes identify with the federal system, then their low scores on the type scales would reflect their in-group values.

In Croatia, the highest average relative to the other states is on ideological commitment, which is significantly greater than the means in Serbia and Slovenia. The Croatian mean on the federal scale is also moderate, while the average state score is low. Thus, Croats tend to be committed to the federal level, and in terms of the data the commitment is ideological. However, the partial correlations indicate

that this high federal commitment is due to organizational involvement, not to economic factors. Croatia is the only state in which infant mortality also correlated strongly and negatively with the federal index (-.24). There is thus limited evidence that while commitment at present is to the federal system, increasing development may stimulate greater state commitment. Serbia shows yet a third pattern of commitment. The Serbian means are low on ideological commitment, but high on the symbolic scale; the latter is correlated

with both federal and state locus (.28 and .51, respectively) but is of greater magnitude for the state index. At the same time, Serbs attain a significantly greater

federal locus score than any other state and a significantly lower state average. There are generally only small partial correlations between socioeconomic measures and federal and state locus scores. Thus the identification by Serbs of themselves

with the federal political system appears to result in their significantly greater federal commitment. Finally, Macedonia is characterized by the highest average ideological score, and a high symbolic score. This combination of high scores, with ideological known to be related to federal commitment and symbolic to state commitment, produces the

expected moderately large means on both locus scales. The partial correlations indicate that socioeconomic factors are significantly related to ideological scores, but that these measures are not correlated with the locus indices (Table 30). Thus in Macedonia development appears to be related to ideological and its associated federal orientation. At the same time, the high symbolic average and high state locus mean appear to reflect the current ethnic nationalism which is registered in other data as well.

Conclusions . The results on the whole indicate that valid measures of two of the four types of

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS 81

commitment, ideological and symbolic, were developed from the items included in the study. Their validity is evidenced both in the results of the correlational and factor analytic item analyses, and in their relationships with other indices. The four hypotheses involving these indices, I, II, VI and VII, were verified consistently by the data, thus the symbolic and ideological commitment constructs can be applied to Yugoslavia, and the aspects of the typology which form the conceptual basis for these four hypotheses are apparently also valid in this cross-national setting. While the item analyses of the functional items indicated that they were very highly interrelated, the absence of relationships between this scale and other variables suggests considerable common-method bias in it. The two hypotheses concerning functional commitment, III and V, were not verified. The normative items show poor interrelationships, and are not related consistently with other measures. Neither of the hypotheses involving this scale, [IV and VIII, was supported by the

, data. It is likely that normative commitment in Yugoslavia is still primarily to local and ethnic groups, a possibility which could not be taken into account in the present study. Substantively, ideological commitment is related strongly to commitment to the federal system and seems to be primarily correlated with organizational involve-

ment. Through the mediation of the latter, those who have traveled outside the country do have higher average ideological scores. There is also a tendency for ideological score to increase with increasing education. Symbolic commitment, as predicted, is related strongly to commitment to the state. It is greater among the less educated and the lower socioeconomic groups, and thus in rural and less developed areas. In the two least advanced and nonwestern states included in the sample, symbolic commitment is also lower among those who have traveled outside Yugoslavia.

In Chapter IV the typology of urbanization developed by Bolci¢ was described in some detail, and it was subsequently employed in several analyses of mean differences. Some of the reasoning on which his typology is based was verified by the data, for example, that urban-rural differences are larger in less developed regions, and that the Mediterranean regions differ from other urban types in that their economies are based largely on commerce and tourism. However, the essential equivalence of the regions sampled in two states and their classification into two of Bolcic’s types resulted in generally small increases in clarification, when his typology was used rather than the analyses by state. As indicated in Chapter III, our conceptualization differs most significantly from Easton’s (1965) in its perspective on the object of commitment. Whereas he discusses only the national regime and community of citizens as objects, we argued that the object could vary, and that where there are diverse, strong ethnic subcultures, commitment under certain circumstances is to the subculture instead of to a national unit. A variety of our findings support our rejection of the assumption of homogeneity of object across subcultures. In particular, we found that the locus of commitment does vary, and that in the Yugoslav case much of this variation is attributable to ethnicity. Thus social science models of psychological orientation or commitment to political systems need to be extended to deal systematically with variation in type and object of commitment due to subcultural differences. The

82 THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT

present research empirically demonstrates the validity of Almond and Powell’s (1966) discussion of this point in the context of developing nations; in so doing, we have also demonstrated the relative utility of the present model. We also specified two questions of practical interest which we hoped to address empirically. The first was whether increased economic development is positively associated with national as opposed to local commitment. There is some evidence in

the data that in Yugoslavia increased development, measured by occupational status, income, ownership and in some cases by infant mortality, is associated with

reduced commitment to the federal political system, contrary to the thesis frequently advanced in the literature. With the exception of Serbs who identify themselves with the government, increased socioeconomic status and standard of living tend to orient one more toward state and local political and relationship systems. Both quantitative and qualitative evidence indicate that this relationship is a consequence of increased salience of ethnic group membership, particularly in Slovenia and Macedonia. This provides the general answer to the second question with which

the research was begun. The effect of the existence of semi-autonomous states whose members also differ in ethnic background appears, at least in Yugoslavia, to be to increase the strength of state (i.e., ethnic minority) commitment as economic development increases. The extent to which these conclusions are generalizable is not clear. They appear applicable to other states where similar ethnic-state divisions occur, e.g., Nigeria prior to the Biafran secession. Whether they are also valid in nations characterized by ethnic heterogeneity but in which ethnic divisions do not also correspond to political ones is not clear. In any case, the conclusion appears justified that development may lead to increased in-group identification and thus potential conflict, and does not invariably reduce such identification in favor of a more national orientation. NOTES

1. The conception of commitment has evolved as it has been evaluated and tested. The original version was tested in the study reported in DeLamater, et al. (1969). The present version was developed partly on the basis of those findings, and partly in an attempt to integrate the theory with the setting of this study. A third version has recently been presented (Katz, Kelman and Vassiliou, 1969), based in part on the findings reported here. 2. Bosnia was excluded because of its tremendous ethnic diversity; about 40 percent of its population are Serbs, 20 percent Croats, and 20 percent Moslems, with the remainder divided among five other minorities. Montenegro was excluded because of its small size (it contains less

than 3 percent of the population of Yugoslavia) and because many of its residents live in relatively inaccessible mountainous areas. 3. This was considered necessary because of the relative complexity of some of the ques-

tions, and because the purpose was to obtain the opinions of those who could be expected to have them. It is recognized that this biases the sample in favor of younger persons generally, and against parents who have sent one or more of their children to school. 4. All intercorrelations were obtained by employing the Missing Data Correlation Program of the Institute for Social Research at The University of Michigan. This program produces essentially Spearman product-moment correlation coefficients, with provision for deleting all cases in which the value of one or both of the variables in any given correlation is missing. 5. The factor analyses were obtained by employing the FACTAN Program of the Institute for Social Research at The University of Michigan. This program provides both Verimax and Oblimin solutions, the former maximizing the independence of the obtained factors and the

THE STUDY OF POLITICAL COMMITMENT 83

latter maximizing the amount of covariation accounted for by the factors. In both cases, a criterion of five factors was specified; the convergence criterion for successive communality estimates was set at .005.

6. Originally, ideological items were constructed asking for the respondent’s preferred solution to the issues included in items 333-338. It became clear during the pre-test that while respondents might feel very strongly about the issue, there were marked disagreements about solution. Some respondents seemed to prefer orthodox Marxist solutions — e.g., “collectivise agriculture to ensure cooperation” (335), “‘determine personal income by uniform salaries” (336). Other respondents took a “socialistic humanist” position, e.g., “leave agricultural cooperation up to those concerned,” “determine personal income by work group productivity.” Thus ideological involvement could be better measured by degree of concern for these issues, rather than by the specific solution preferred. 7. There was no obvious way in which scores could be standardized to allow for betweenstate comparisons. Standardizing the scores within each state automatically made the means equal; therefore, this standardization, discussed in Chapter V, can be used only in comparisons based on the Bolcic¢ typology where groups to be compared are subgroups within states or combined across states. Similarly, standardization based on the entire sample would have produced differences due to variation in the number of items within each state. A comparison of mean differences also raises the question of the extent to which items were interpreted similarly in different states. Obviously, systematic differences in interpretation not due to underlying differences in mode or strength of commitment would produce spurious mean differences. However, several considerations mitigate against this possibility. First, in preparing the schedule, and translating it, primary emphasis was given to the psychological equivalence of items and wording. Second, no items were included which did not yield distributions of respondents across all alternatives in at least three states during the pre-test. Third, the criteria discussed earlier for constructing scales are stringent, and should enhance the validity of the resulting index for that state. 8. The statistic w2 (small Greek “omega,”’ squared) as used throughout this monograph is an estimate of the proportional reduction in the variance of Y, given the value of X. It is thus a measure of reduction in uncertainty. It is used in addition to p values to indicate the relative meaningfulness of differences which are uniformly significant. 9. “Low” or “less education” refers to those with industrial school training (includes eight primary grades) or less, while “‘high” or “more education” is comprised of those with commercial, academic high school or college education. ““Low” consists of categories 1-4, “high’’, of

categories 5-7 on variable 392 (see Appendix III for the content of this item). In Croatia, N = 253 for low education, 169 for high. 10. That personal income increases from Macedonia to Slovenia is shown in the following table, taken from the Statistical Pocket Book of Yugoslavia (1968, p. 43); figures are for 1967.

Slovenia Croatia Serbia Macedonia