The Rise in Vacant Housing in Post-growth Japan: Housing Market, Urban Policy, and Revitalizing Aging Cities [1st ed.] 978-981-13-7919-2;978-981-13-7920-8

Table of contents :
Front Matter ....Pages i-xvi
Front Matter ....Pages 1-1
Why the Rise in Urban Housing Vacancies Occurred and Matters in Japan (Tomoko Kubo, Michihiro Mashita)....Pages 3-22
Mapping the Problems of Housing Vacancies in Japan (Yoshiki Wakabayashi)....Pages 23-31
Changes in Essential Facilities of Housing Estates in an Aging Society: The Failure of City Planning in Japan (Yoshimichi Yui)....Pages 33-42
Front Matter ....Pages 43-43
Geodemographic Characteristics of Vacant Houses in the Resale Condominium Market in the Kansai Metropolitan Area (Yoji Kamimura, Masaya Uesugi, Keiji Yano)....Pages 45-72
The Decline in Price of Suburban Secondhand Housing in Hiroshima City (Yoshimichi Yui)....Pages 73-85
Distribution of Vacant Homes in Tama City in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Estimation Using GIS and Small Area Statistics (Hitoshi Miyazawa)....Pages 87-109
Urban Abandonment and Housing Vacancies in Japanese Local Cities: A Case of Kyo-machiya, Traditional Wooden Town Houses (Keiji Yano)....Pages 111-122
A Problem of Vacant Housing in Local Cities: Utsunomiya City, Tochigi Prefecture Case Study (Hiroyasu Nishiyama)....Pages 123-146
Front Matter ....Pages 147-147
Resolution of Vacant Housing Through Social Business: Kominka Renovation Business by Nakagawa Jyuken Corp (Hiroyasu Nishiyama)....Pages 149-160
Local Responses to a Rise in Housing Vacancies in the Nagoya Suburbs (Tomoko Kubo, Toshiyuki Otsuka)....Pages 161-175

Citation preview

Advances in Geographical and Environmental Sciences

Tomoko Kubo Yoshimichi Yui   Editors

The Rise in Vacant Housing in Post-growth Japan Housing Market, Urban Policy, and Revitalizing Aging Cities

Advances in Geographical and Environmental Sciences Series Editor R. B. Singh, University of Delhi, Delhi, India

Advances in Geographical and Environmental Sciences synthesizes series diagnostigation and prognostication of earth environment, incorporating challenging interactive areas within ecological envelope of geosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere and cryosphere. It deals with land use land cover change (LUCC), urbanization, energy flux, land-ocean fluxes, climate, food security, ecohydrology, biodiversity, natural hazards and disasters, human health and their mutual interaction and feedback mechanism in order to contribute towards sustainable future. The geosciences methods range from traditional field techniques and conventional data collection, use of remote sensing and geographical information system, computer aided technique to advance geostatistical and dynamic modeling. The series integrate past, present and future of geospheric attributes incorporating biophysical and human dimensions in spatio-temporal perspectives. The geosciences, encompassing land-ocean-atmosphere interaction is considered as a vital component in the context of environmental issues, especially in observation and prediction of air and water pollution, global warming and urban heat islands. It is important to communicate the advances in geosciences to increase resilience of society through capacity building for mitigating the impact of natural hazards and disasters. Sustainability of human society depends strongly on the earth environment, and thus the development of geosciences is critical for a better understanding of our living environment, and its sustainable development. Geoscience also has the responsibility to not confine itself to addressing current problems but it is also developing a framework to address future issues. In order to build a ‘Future Earth Model’ for understanding and predicting the functioning of the whole climatic system, collaboration of experts in the traditional earth disciplines as well as in ecology, information technology, instrumentation and complex system is essential, through initiatives from human geoscientists. Thus human geosceince is emerging as key policy science for contributing towards sustainability/survivality science together with future earth initiative. Advances in Geographical and Environmental Sciences series publishes books that contain novel approaches in tackling issues of human geoscience in its broadest sense—books in the series should focus on true progress in a particular area or region. The series includes monographs and edited volumes without any limitations in the page numbers.

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/13113

Tomoko Kubo Yoshimichi Yui •

Editors

The Rise in Vacant Housing in Post-growth Japan Housing Market, Urban Policy, and Revitalizing Aging Cities

123

Editors Tomoko Kubo Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences University of Tsukuba Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

Yoshimichi Yui Graduate School of Education Hiroshima University Higashihiroshima, Hiroshima, Japan

ISSN 2198-3542 ISSN 2198-3550 (electronic) Advances in Geographical and Environmental Sciences ISBN 978-981-13-7919-2 ISBN 978-981-13-7920-8 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-7920-8 © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore

Preface

The twentieth century was the age of urbanization, and “growth” was one of the most important key words in academia, planning, economy, and politics. Urbanization and the following suburbanization brought about new lifestyles in suburbia, which was car-oriented, gender-biased, and family-oriented, supported by the strong ideology of homeownership. Urbanization of the twentieth century, however, triggered the expansion of slums, expulsion, division, and uneven living conditions within cities. What has happened and will happen in the cities of the twenty-first century? At least in the first two decades, cities have faced serious challenges that were not prevalent in the previous centuries. Globalization of urban economy accelerated competitions among world cities that have strengthened their characters through capital accumulation instead of simply being a home for their residents. A forest of skyscrapers symbolizes capital accumulation and a new lifestyle in city-center condominiums; at the feet of skyscrapers, eviction, displacement, and homelessness occurred as the beginning of the gentrification process. In addition to globalization, neoliberal housing policies have completely changed urban lifestyles and housing market. In Japanese cities, demographic changes strongly affect the urban housing market. Aging, low fertility, and population loss triggered urban shrinkage that directly caused decline in residential environment of old neighborhoods. Gap expansion in terms of residential environment within the Tokyo metropolitan area, growth in city-centers, and decline in aging suburban neighborhoods, is one of the crucial urban housing problems. Although many scholars including Doxiadis C. A. have dreamed of creating cities as human settlements rather than just a growing engine, cities are currently facing crucial challenges of livability. In many developed countries, cities are discussed in the framework of shrinking cities, post-growth society, and planning efforts to overcome related problems. Due to the decline in old industrial areas, such as the Rust Belt of the USA or Northern England, population loss, economic-base decline, an increase in housing vacancies has caused related social disorder and lack of security within the region. In the case of Japan, population aging and low fertility can trigger shrinkage of the region as a whole. v

vi

Preface

In cities of developing countries, the emergence of mega-cities has resulted in a great division within cities by housing types, socioeconomic status, and living conditions. Overgrowth of cities has caused slums, something akin to slums, or a vacuum. Slums or a vacuum, beyond regulations, laws, or other appropriate institutional controls, have emerged in urban fringes and often been found in Asian cities. Furthermore, there is emptiness due to people departing the overcrowded slums, leaving only useless buildings to dominate specific areas. Therefore, emptiness is also understood to be something akin to slums, and it can be found in many shrinking and declining cities in developed countries. In sum, overcrowded condition and emptiness are two sides of the same coin named “chaos” within cities. Regardless of developed or developing countries, many cities of today face problems related to the expansion of slums or vacuum within them. Thus, we are in the age of urban shrinkage, although it appears differently. In the era of urban shrinkage, Japanese cities have struggled due to aging and low fertility, population loss, and economic-base decline over decades. Shrinkage in metropolitan suburbs and large cities (e.g., sites of prefectural government with 300–400 thousand inhabitants) has resulted a serious social disorder due to its huge aging population and large covered areas; one typical disorder that has emerged is an increase in empty and abandoned housing vacancies. This book can provide empirical outcomes dealing with new mechanisms of urban shrinkage in Japan, different from the Western ones, which are characterized by decline in local industries. Demographic changes, neoliberal urban and housing policies, and changes in people’s lifestyle preferences are closely connected and collectively responsible for urban shrinkage in Japan. The complete reality of the Japanese shrinking cities (Part II) and measures to overcome shrinkage by actors in different scales (Part III) are examined. In detail, this book explores (1) how Japanese cities have transformed since the 1950s by describing housing and urban planning policies, urbanization processes, and maps with GIS analysis; (2) how housing vacancies have increased in shrinking Japanese cities with case studies in Tokyo, Kyoto, Hiroshima, and Utsunomiya. Finally, we examine (3) public–private partnership and civil engagement for revitalizing cities. The cases of Japanese cities dealing with aging and urban shrinkage must contribute to better decision-making by politicians, planners, local authorities, NPOs, or local communities in many rapidly urbanizing and potentially aging regions, such as Asia. Acknowledgements This research project is financially supported by KAKENHI, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B). Project number: 15H03276, PI: Prof. Yoshimichi Yui at Hiroshima University.

Tsukuba, Japan Hiroshima, Japan September 2018

Tomoko Kubo Yoshimichi Yui

Contents

Part I 1

Housing Market, Urbanization, and Housing Vacancies in Japan

Why the Rise in Urban Housing Vacancies Occurred and Matters in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Tomoko Kubo and Michihiro Mashita

2

Mapping the Problems of Housing Vacancies in Japan . . . . . . . . . . Yoshiki Wakabayashi

3

Changes in Essential Facilities of Housing Estates in an Aging Society: The Failure of City Planning in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yoshimichi Yui

Part II 4

5

6

7

3 23

33

Case Studies

Geodemographic Characteristics of Vacant Houses in the Resale Condominium Market in the Kansai Metropolitan Area . . . . . . . . . Yoji Kamimura, Masaya Uesugi and Keiji Yano

45

The Decline in Price of Suburban Secondhand Housing in Hiroshima City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yoshimichi Yui

73

Distribution of Vacant Homes in Tama City in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Estimation Using GIS and Small Area Statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Hitoshi Miyazawa

87

Urban Abandonment and Housing Vacancies in Japanese Local Cities: A Case of Kyo-machiya, Traditional Wooden Town Houses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 Keiji Yano

vii

viii

8

Contents

A Problem of Vacant Housing in Local Cities: Utsunomiya City, Tochigi Prefecture Case Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 Hiroyasu Nishiyama

Part III 9

Measures for Revitalizing Cities

Resolution of Vacant Housing Through Social Business: Kominka Renovation Business by Nakagawa Jyuken Corp . . . . . . 149 Hiroyasu Nishiyama

10 Local Responses to a Rise in Housing Vacancies in the Nagoya Suburbs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 Tomoko Kubo and Toshiyuki Otsuka

Editors and Contributors

About the Editors Tomoko Kubo is an assistant professor in the Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences of the University of Tsukuba, Japan. She is an urban geographer working closely with housing studies. She is currently the chair of the Urban Geography Commission’s Young Scholar (YS) Committee of the International Geographical Union (IGU) after winning its 2012 YS Paper competition, and a board member of the Research Committee on Housing and the Built Environment (RC43) of the International Sociological Association (ISA). Her research interests include urbanization and the housing market, urban and housing policy, residential choices under socioeconomic changes, single women’s homeownership, shrinking cities and their revitalization, and aging suburbs in Japan. Yoshimichi Yui is a professor in the Graduate School of Education of Hiroshima University, Japan. He is currently a board member of the UNESCO Associated School Project University Network. His research interests include housing studies in geography, urban geography, aging, town planning, welfare, gender, child care, revitalizing housing estates, and geography education.

Contributors Yoji Kamimura Geo Laboratory Inc., Osaka, Japan Tomoko Kubo Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan Michihiro Mashita Center for Spatial Information Science, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan

ix

x

Editors and Contributors

Hitoshi Miyazawa Faculty of Letters and Education, Ochanomizu University, Tokyo, Japan Hiroyasu Nishiyama Faculty of City Life Studies, Utsunomiya Kyowa University, Utsunomiya, Japan Toshiyuki Otsuka College of Humanities, Chubu University, Kasugai, Japan Masaya Uesugi Fukuoka Institute of Technology, Fukuoka, Japan Yoshiki Wakabayashi Department University, Hachioji, Japan

of

Geography,

Tokyo

Metropolitan

Keiji Yano Faculty of Letters, Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto, Japan Yoshimichi Yui Graduate School of Education, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan

List of Figures

Fig. 1.1

Fig. 1.2

Fig. 2.1

Fig. 2.2

Fig. 2.3

Fig. 2.4

Fig. 2.5

Housing vacancies in the Tokyo metropolitan area (2013). Source Created based on Housing and Land Survey 2013 (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Specific reasons for houses became empty in Gifu and Ushiku. Note Multiple answers. Total numbers of housing vacancies are 201 in the four case neighborhoods in Ushiku and 150 in the case neighborhood in central Gifu. Source Authors’ field survey conducted in 2013 in Ushiku and 2014/2015 in Gifu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Trend of housing vacancy rate and number of households in Japan. Source Created based on 2013 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Type of buildings by vacant status. Source Created based on 2013 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Proportion of vacancies for total dwellings by their conditions in Japan. Source Created based on 2013 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Share of vacant dwellings by municipality in the Tokyo Metropolitan Region (% of total housing stock; 2013). Source Created based on 2013 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) . . . . Share of vacant dwellings by distance from the central city within the Tokyo Metropolitan Region in 2013. Source Created based on 2013 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) . . . .

12

17

26

26

27

28

29

xi

xii

Fig. 2.6

Fig. 3.1

Fig. 3.2 Fig. 3.3 Fig. 3.4

Fig. 3.5

Fig. 3.6 Fig. 4.1

Fig. 4.2

Fig. 4.3

Fig. 5.1 Fig. 6.1

Fig. 6.2 Fig. 6.3 Fig. 6.4

List of Figures

Population growth and ratio of the elderly population in the Tokyo Metropolitan Region. Source Created based on 2013 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Age structure in suburban housing estate in Kure city. Source Created by editing 2010 Population Census (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications 2012) . . . . . . “Shuttered street” in a housing estate, in Tama New town (photo by author) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Care service facilities for the elderly in suburbs (Yui 2018) (photo by author) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Distribution of special nursing homes for the elderly in Hiroshima city. (reprinted from Yui 2018, Copyright 2018) (created based on the data from Hiroshima city: http://www. city.hiroshima.lg.jp/www/genre/1266306475035/index.html. Accessed 1 Oct 2017) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Distribution of nursing home care facilities in Hiroshima city (Yui 2018) (reprinted from Yui 2018, Copyright 2018) (created based on the data from Hiroshima city: http://www. city.hiroshima.lg.jp/www/genre/1266306475035/index.html. Accessed 1 Oct 2017) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The day service nursing home for the elderly, changed from supermarket (Yui 2018) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The number of resales of condominiums and the average selling price in the Kansai metropolitan area. Source Kinki Real Estate Information Network System. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Distribution of sales agreement data by neighborhood type. Note Neighborhood types by “Mosaic Group.” The dot shows the distribution of sales agreement data of resale condominiums . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Differences in the residual between demographic neighborhood types (Mosaic Group). Note The bar is 95% confidence interval . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transaction price of used houses in Hiroshima. Source Created by 2015 Land Information System (2016) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Distribution of vacant homes in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Source Created based on 2013 Housing and Land Survey (2015) (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Utilization of residential land in Tama city. Source Drawn by aggregating Building Point Data by ZENRIN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Distribution density of vacant homes in Tama city, 2015 . . . . . Changes of vacant homes in Tama city, 2005–2015 . . . . . . . . .

30

37 37 38

39

40 40

48

52

59 76

92 94 98 99

List of Figures

Fig. 6.5 Fig. 6.6 Fig. 6.7

Fig. 6.8

Fig. 7.1 Fig. 7.2 Fig. 7.3 Fig. 7.4 Fig. 7.5 Fig. 8.1 Fig. 8.2 Fig. 8.3 Fig. 8.4

Fig. 8.5 Fig. 8.6

Fig. 8.7

Fig. 8.8

Changes of vacant house density in Tama city, 2005–2015 . . . . Deviation of houses and increase/decrease of households in Tama city, 2005–2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Population in five-year age groups in areas where vacant homes are increased. Source Created based on 2005 Population Census (2014), 2010 Population Census (2012), and 2015 Population Census (2017) (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) . . . . . . . . . . . Net migration by five-year age groups in areas where vacant homes are increased. Source Created based on 2000 Population Census (2014), 2005 Population Census (2014), 2010 Population Census (2012), and 2015 Population Census (2017) (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Typical Kyo-machiya. Source Author photographed . . . . . . . . . Study area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Spatial distributions of Kyo-machiya. Source Author’s field survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Spatial distributions of demolished Kyo-machiya. Source Author’s field survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Spatial distribution of vacancy Kyo-machiya. Source Author’s field survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Location of Utsunomiya City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Pay-as-you-use car parks in the city centre. Source Nishiyama photographed in 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Change of the population by distance zones. Source Created based on Population Census of Japan (2005) and (2010) . . . . . . Changes in the number of vacant housing in Utsunomiya. Source Created based on Housing and Land Survey (2013) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ratio of vacant housing by their conditions. Source Created based on Housing and Land Survey (2008) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Distribution of vacant houses for the entire Utsunomiya. Source Created based on Vacant Housing data provided by Utsunomiya City and Population Census of Japan (2010) . . . . . Defined periods and boundaries determined by DID and the number and percentage of vacant houses. Source Vacant Housing data provided by Utsunomiya City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Number of vacant housing and people of 65 years old or more. Source Created based on Vacant Housing data provided by Utsunomiya City and Population Census of Japan (2010) . . . . .

xiii

100 102

105

106 113 114 117 118 120 126 127 127

130 131

132

133

135

xiv

Fig. 8.9

Fig. 8.10

Fig. 8.11

Fig. 8.12

Fig. 8.13 Fig. 8.14

Fig. 8.15

Fig. 9.1 Fig. 9.2

Fig. 10.1

Fig. 10.2

List of Figures

Relationship between population of 65 years old or more and vacant houses in Utsunomiya. Source Created based on Vacant Housing data provided by Utsunomiya City and Population Census of Japan (2010) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Vacant houses divided by generation and the ratio of vacant houses to all detached houses in Utsunomiya. Source Vacant Housing data provided by Utsunomiya City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Number of houses built before 1974 and vacant houses in Utsunomiya. Source Vacant Housing data provided by Utsunomiya City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Relationship between houses built before 1974 and vacant houses in Utsunomiya. Source Vacant Housing data provided by Utsunomiya City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Narrow path and vacant houses. Source Nishiyama photographed in 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ratio of narrow roads in the urban area and vacant houses. Source Vacant Housing data and Urban Planning data provided by Utsunomiya City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Relationship between the rate of narrow roads and the rate of vacant houses. Source Vacant Housing data and Urban Planning data provided by Utsunomiya City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Trial stay in Kominka. Source Nishiyama photographed in 2017 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cosplay photography event at the Samurai residence and the leaflet. Source Reprinted with permission from Nakagawa Jyuken (2019) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Demographic patterns of the studied neighborhoods, Kani city in the Nagoya suburbs, 1995–2015. Source Created based on 1995 Population Census (2014), 2000 (2014), 2005 (2014), 2010 (2012), and 2015 (2017) (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications). https://www.e-stat.go.jp/ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Distribution of vacant houses and land and their conditions in the studied neighborhood, Kani city in the Nagoya suburbs, November 2017. Source The authors’ field survey . . . . . . . . . .

136

136

137

138 140

141

142 154

155

169

170

List of Tables

Table 1.1

Table 2.1 Table 4.1 Table 4.2 Table Table Table Table Table Table Table

4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.2

Table 5.3 Table 5.4 Table 5.5 Table 6.1 Table 6.2 Table 6.3

Overview of changes in urbanization, governmental intention, academic discussion, and socioeconomic conditions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Results of regression analysis: standardized regression coefficient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Summary statistics of resale condominiums by neighborhood type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Residential characteristics by neighborhood type in the Kansai Metropolitan Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Descriptive statistics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Model estimates of the sale price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Model estimates of the list-to-sale discount rate . . . . . . . . . . . Model estimates of time-on-market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Neighborhood types with long time-on-market . . . . . . . . . . . . Outline of the housing estates studied . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transaction price of used houses in Asahigaoka estates (2006–2015) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transaction price of used houses in Suginamidai estates (2006–2015) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transaction price of used houses in Misuzugaoka estates (2006–2015) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Transaction price of used houses in suburban housing complex in Hiroshima City (2006–2015) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Vacant homes by distance from center of the Tokyo metropolitan area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Results of estimation of vacant homes in Tama city, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Changes in the number of households in an area with an increasing vacant home and the contribution ratio by attribute . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

15 30 50 56 60 63 65 67 70 76 78 79 81 82 91 96

104

xv

xvi

Table 7.1 Table 7.2 Table 7.3 Table 7.4 Table 8.1 Table 8.2 Table 8.3 Table 9.1 Table 10.1

List of Tables

List of items in the Kyo-machiya community-building survey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The numbers of Kyo-machiya in the city center . . . . . . . . . Urban land use after demolished Kyo-machiya . . . . . . . . . . Relationships between demolished and vacancy Kyo-machiya . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Type of housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . How to obtain housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Relationship between planned development and vacant housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Members of non-profit organization (NPO) . . . . . . . . . . . . . ERA programs for residents in the studied neighborhood, Kani city of the Nagoya suburbs (2017) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

.. .. ..

115 117 119

.. .. ..

120 128 129

.. ..

143 159

..

172

Part I

Housing Market, Urbanization, and Housing Vacancies in Japan

Chapter 1

Why the Rise in Urban Housing Vacancies Occurred and Matters in Japan Tomoko Kubo and Michihiro Mashita

Abstract This study aimed to examine how Japanese urban problems have arisen during the post-growth period and why administrative strategies have failed in dealing with them. A rise in housing vacancies was selected as an example of an urban problem that has surfaced over time. As the increase in housing vacancies in Japan was regarded as coinciding with urban shrinkage, housing vacancies in Japanese cities can generate permanent stagnation due to economic-base decline, population loss or aging, institutional reasons, or a combination of these factors. We first reviewed a discussion on gap expansion in residential condition, gentrification process, and housing vacancies in cities to clarify the nature of problems caused in Japanese aging cities. Second, case studies in the Tokyo suburbs and medium-sized cities clarified the generative processes in the matters related to an increase in housing vacancies in Japanese cities. Keywords Housing vacancies · Generative process · Aging · Housing market · Japanese cities

1.1 Introduction 1.1.1 Study Background Increasing attention is being paid around the developed world to the increasing numbers of abandoned vacant houses or lands in cities and the problems associated with them (Accordino and Johnson 2000). This is particularly the case in Japan, given its demographic decline which will make the current vacancy levels worse (Yui et al. T. Kubo (B) Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan e-mail: [email protected] M. Mashita Center for Spatial Information Science, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 T. Kubo and Y. Yui (eds.), The Rise in Vacant Housing in Post-growth Japan, Advances in Geographical and Environmental Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-7920-8_1

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2016, 2017; Kubo et al. 2017). From a peak of 128 million in 2010, Japan’s population is expected to decline to 109 million by 2040 and 88 million in 2065 according to National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (2017). Along with the population loss, the sharp increase in aging population is fatal: the ratio of older adults over 65 among total population was 26.6% in 2015, that is estimated to be 33.3% in 2036, ending up to 38.4% in 2065 (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research 2017). These trends will have profound effects on Japanese society and its urban places. Among the many consequences of this change that are already started to emerge is an increase in the proportion of vacancies in the Japanese housing stock (Yui et al. 2016; Kubo et al. 2017). This can be seen in 2013 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan) as the proportion reached 13.5%, from 2.5% in 1963. Countries with mature economies have attempted to overcome problems typically found in post-growth societies or to find smart solutions to deal with them (Hino and Tsutsumi 2015; Hirayama and Izuhara 2018). The previous century was characterized by urban growth (Murayama 2000), and Japanese administrative structure, urban policy, and population, or welfare systems were established to manage population growth, high fertility rates, and increased pressure for urban construction. In the post-growth age, however, new administrative strategies or urban governance that are compatible with the present urban requirements are necessary. From this perspective, new urban slogans such as “smart city,” “sustainable city,” and “livable city” have emerged, and such cities have also been evaluated to win competitions among cities in the globalized and knowledge-based economy (Harvey 1989; Florida 2003; Grossi and Pianezzi 2017). For instance, socially mixed and harmonious communities, which may contribute to the formation of livable cities, have been evaluated highly in city planning in Western countries in this context (Lees 2008). Indeed, it is necessary to market cities as environments that offer harmonious and sustainable neighborhoods to residents in post-growth societies. However, it is not easy to be compatible with new social requirements, and some social problems or disorders have arisen over time. The contradiction between existing social systems and new requirements tends to enhance these problems coincidentally with social transitions. For example, the shrinking economy, decline in dominant city industries, or changes in socioeconomic structure have created more serious urban problems. One typical case is the increase in housing vacancies in shrinking cities. In Northern England’s old industrial regions, an increase in housing vacancies and homelessness occurred as of the 1990s. The Rust Belt of the USA has also experienced the problem, along with a decline in local industries and long-term stagnation (Pallagust et al. 2014). In addition, post-socialist countries have also faced shrinkage (Glock and Haussermann 2004; Pallagust et al. 2014; Radzimski 2016). Demographic changes and long-term recession have created empty neighborhoods in Japanese cities (Kubo et al. 2015; Yui et al. 2016). Shrinking city debates have warned of problems in old industrial cities, affected areas of the global economy, and areas that have experienced drastic socioeconomic changes. Little is known about shrinkage in aging Japanese cities, where population loss is a national phenomenon and existing social systems (e.g., urban policy, housing, or welfare systems) established in the high-growth age of the 1950s cannot well control the present shrinking society or the decline of the economic base and

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social changes (Hirayama and Izuhara 2018). Even in Haase et al. (2017) that conceptualized urban shrinkage reality and governance with German, US, and Japanese cases, they mentioned only the problem of “kaso” which denotes depopulation in rural settlements in Japanese. Although aging-related shrinkage can mainly be found in Japan, many rapidly growing cities will find themselves in this situation within a few decades. The current situation of Japanese cities is strongly affected by globalism, neoliberalism, urban shrinkage, and socioeconomic changes (Hirayama and Ronald 2007; Forrest and Hirayama 2009). In these circumstances, Japanese cities are facing urban governance challenges. The reality of Japanese shrinking cities and ways to manage this shrinkage through urban governance measures are typical and important urban challenges to be examined. Urban shrinkage debates, both by academics and policy makers, have grown over time, and one of the crucial challenges among them is an increase in housing vacancies (Hattori et al. 2017). Under the competition among global cities, the great gaps in residential environment and demographic composition have grown in Japanese cities, typically the aging population and decline in suburbs and growth of city centers within metropolitan areas (Hirayama 2005), and growth of metropolitan areas and decline in local cities. Even in a city with 400,000 residents, such as Gifu city (the city used for this study), aging residents and buildings triggered an increase in housing vacancies and a decline in residential environment. In addition to the governmental countermeasures, local municipalities have established new laws, strategies, and networks to address the problems.

1.1.2 Purpose of the Study The study aims to explain the current situation in Japanese shrinking cities, and the great gap between decline in suburban neighborhoods with increased housing vacancies and growth in city centers with new urban development. Subsequently, we examine urban governance challenges in the gap term until existing systems are modified so that it can manage post-growth period through the national/municipal governmental reactions to the rise in housing vacancies in aging cities. To achieve the purpose, we first reviewed discussion on gap expansion in residential condition, and causal factors of urban housing vacancies by focusing on specific, generic, and total reality of the problem. To clarify the nature of problems caused in Japanese aging cities, we compare the situation in Japanese cities with similar problems found in other countries. Second, empirical case study was to analyze specific, generic, and total reality of the problem. The case studies clarify the generative processes in the matters related to an increase in housing vacancies in Japanese cities. In the end, we will suggest possible administrative solutions based on our findings. The empirical field surveys were conducted in the municipalities of Tokyo suburbs and mid-sized cities in the Nagoya region; for suburban municipalities of Tokyo, we conducted interview surveys with city staff in the departments responsible for the regulation of the increase in housing vacancies in 2013, followed by a questionnaire for local residents, and on-site investigation of housing vacancies in some case

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districts identified by city staff as problematic areas due to an increase in housing vacancies. In addition, Ushiku city of the Tokyo suburbs, in edge of commuter belt ranges from 50 to 60 km away from central Tokyo, and Gifu city, the seat of the prefectural government of Gifu, were selected as empirical case study sites, and whose city-center areas recorded the highest city aging population rates had caused housing vacancies. The survey was conducted in 2014 in Ushiku and 2015–2017 in Gifu.

1.2 Expansion of Uneven Residential Conditions in Cities An increase in housing vacancies can cause direct harm to nearby residents, municipalities, or Japanese society as a whole. It is not only a practical matter, but also one of the challenges that highly urbanized, globalized cities with knowledge-based economies face today. This section reviews recent urban discussions that explain the nature of problems typically found in shrinking and aging Japanese cities: gap expansions in terms of residential conditions, urbanization and gentrification, and an increase in housing vacancies in cities. By summarizing the positive and negative effects from an increase in housing vacancies, and the “problems” generated by these phenomena in cities, we will clarify the characteristics of the Japanese situation.

1.2.1 The Gap Expansion in Residential Environment in Cities Once, we dreamed of ecumenopolis (Doxiadis 1968) that should have resulted in livable human settlements. However, in reality, urbanization brought about the expansion of slums, expulsion, and uneven living conditions within cities (Davis 2006; Sassen 2014). Shinohara (2011) noted that an expansion of slums or “vacuum1 ” can also be found in highly urbanized and industrialized cities. An increase in shuttered Japanese shopping districts is regarded as one of the typical cases of empty space or vacuum, which is akin to slums. Shinohara also warned of the impact to many aging suburban neighborhoods in Japan since emptiness expands not only to nearby shopping centers but also to residential areas. An increase in abandoned housing vacancies due to residents’ aging or death can create a huge vacuum within a neighborhood (Shinohara 2011). 1 According

to the literatures, empty space or a “vacuum” denotes (1) slums, or slum-like areas (Davis 2006; Shinohara 2011); (2) urban fringes beyond regulations, laws, or other appropriate institutional controls, which are often found in Asia (Schenk 2002); and (3) emptiness, resulting from people departing the overcrowded slums, leaving only useless buildings to dominate specific areas. The latter is also understood to be something akin to slums (Shinohara 2011). Complete emptiness covers a part of the city, attracting illegal behavior, less control by authorities, and urban decline. Although the three types represent different landscapes, they all cause urban decline.

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Through the globalization of urban economy, neoliberalism, and the commodification of housing, contemporary society has faced a livability crisis, which can determine the rise and fall of cities due to the increasing importance of competence in the current globalized and knowledge-based economy. Gap expansion, divide cities, or polarization has characterized today’s cities in both developed and developing countries (e.g., Hulchanski 2007 and other reports on Neighborhood Change Research Partnership2 ; Madrazo and van Kempen 2011; Aliu and Ajala 2014). Cities today are divided socially, economically, racially, and demographically. The Japanese case highlights the demographic change that has caused gap expansion in residential environment within a city.

1.2.1.1

A Beginning of Gentrification or Permanent Shrinkage?

To understand the expansion of uneven living condition, we first review discussions on the generative process of abandoned districts within a city. According to Lowry (1960), rational landlords tend to avoid active housing maintenance and repair in the shrinking market. These landlords’ decisions create a filtering process within a city. As many landlords avoid maintaining houses within a district, housing transactions stagnate. In a shrinking or stagnant market, landlords prefer to rent out their owneroccupied home (Smith 1996). A lack of high-quality housing can create demand for repair, active maintenance, or renovation of existing housing. This results in an increase in housing prices and gentrification within the district. Without it, net capital outflow proceeds in the entire area (Smith 1996). Compared to the human mobility that avoids stagnant area into new area that offers them more benefits, the built environment transformation tends to progress slow (Harvey 1982). Less maintained buildings remain there with a decline in their value. Gradually, the stagnant areas, in which the rent gap is high, move outward from city center to the suburbs. Old middleclass neighborhoods in US suburbs faced some problems, such as transformation from owner occupation to rental housing, lack of security, or rise in anonymity within a neighborhood in the 1990s (Schemo 1994). As the new investments in stagnant areas are perceived as risky, governmental supports to soften risk perception of urban developers are necessary. Ley (1996) argued that risks perceived by developers or investors determine the districts with new reinvestment. To minimize risks, developers or investors preferred to reinvest in areas near middle-class neighborhoods. In addition, the availability of government mortgages and subsidies affect risk perception (Ley 1996). To take risks in high-risk investment, public–private cooperation is necessary. Moreover, many feminist scholars viewed gentrification as a result of social restructuring (Rose 1984), but it also reflects risk perception of developers. They suggested that the marginal gentrifiers and lack of opportunities for women to become homeowners generated demand for condominiums in gentrified neighborhoods. Even in the 2010s, women are regarded as a symbol of urban lifestyle consumption in 2 Neighbourhood

Change Research Partnership Web site: http://neighbourhoodchange.ca/.

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many redeveloped city centers (Kern 2010). With a rise of single-household percentage after 1995 in central Tokyo, single women became one of the main targets for condominium sales, and most of the sites have been gentrified or redeveloped (Yui 2003; Kubo and Yui 2011; Hirayama and Izuhara 2018; Ronald et al. 2018). In one point, it was the result of social restructuring, an increase in the number of women with enough purchasing power affected Tokyo’s housing market (Kubo and Yui 2011). In other views, under the longitudinal economic stagnation and suburbanization trend of Tokyo, a success in the sales of studio condominiums for single women was regarded as new chance for other developers. The sales are started by medium-sized developers in the late 1990s and then expanded to major developers in the 2000s, who allowed city-center lifestyles take root in society (Yui 2003; Kubo and Yui 2011). In the 2000s, skyscraper developments in Tokyo Bay area also attracted young couples eager to reduce commuting time and access job opportunities in the city center (Kubo and Yui 2011; Koizumi et al. 2011). If such a positive urban redevelopment transition continues, stagnation is just a temporary condition waiting for reinvestment. Therefore, gentrification scholars have taken optimistic view on the stagnation within metropolitan areas (Smith 1996). Urban development expansion was expected to continue beyond the country. However, this is not true for Japanese cities facing super-aging populations and low fertility, social restructuring, neoliberal urban policies, and globalization. Indeed, the emergence of stagnant areas symbolizes the beginning of an era of shrinkage in population, urban areas, and economy. We will explain the details in the following section

1.2.2 Problematic Housing Vacancies We classified urban housing vacancies by reflecting the housing vacancy functions, locations, and durations. Temporary housing vacancies with optimal amounts or rates, balanced distribution, and well maintained are fruitful for urban environments. If these housing vacancies become permanent, they can become hotbeds of urban social problems. According to Gu and Asami (2016), an optimal vacancy rate in Tokyo’s rental housing market (23 wards) was calculated to be 1.96%, which enables active and free residential choices. Rental housing always requires some empty units for possible tenants. In addition, holiday homes, student housing, Airbnbs, and other temporary housing units also support a lively and attractive urban life, which generate domestic and international mobility for education and tourism. Old and stagnant residential areas may attract future investment that calls for gentrification processes in cities (Smith 1996). On the other hand, there are problematic forms of housing vacancies in cities that symbolize housing commodification, housing market globalization, permanent stagnation, and population and economic shrinkage. The following are examples of housing commodification and globalization: (1) The “Spanish paradox” denotes the simultaneous occurrence of high vacancy rates and high housing prices under

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a stagnated local labor market (Greenpeace 2007; Hoelstra and Vakili-Zad 2010). (2) Unfinished housing estates created after vast inflows and later outflow of global capital into the Irish housing market (Kitchin et al. 2014). (3) “Millionaire migrants,” inflows of wealthy migrants from the Pacific Rim regions to large Canadian cities have transformed local housing markets characterized by super-high housing prices and high empty home rates; this has resulted in a discussion on new taxes on foreign buyers and housing vacancies in Vancouver (Ley 2010; Moos and Skaburskis 2010; The Guardian 2018). (4) “Ghost cities” in China are another critical form of housing commodification. Many housing estates remain empty after their completion (Shepard 2015). Second, the financial crisis triggered an increase in empty homes. Foreclosure and subsequent eviction deprived many Americans of their homes after the subprime crisis (Immergluch 2011). Moreover, a poverty concentration in outer suburbs was confirmed after the recession. Third, more seriously, the shrinking economy and population loss have created more serious urban problems: (1) The Empty Home Agency (2015) warned of an increase that began in the 1990s in homelessness and empty homes in Northern UK’s old industrial regions (according to the authors’ interview with the Empty Home Charity officials on March 16, 2015). Similarly, there has been an increase in abandoned houses in the USA’s Rust Belt region. For decades, these regions have experienced a decline in local industries and long-term stagnation has gradually deprived the population of the regions’ vitality (Pallagust et al. 2014). (2) East Germany and other post-socialist countries have long struggled to overcome shrinkage after the integration and following outmigration to the West (Glock and Haussermann 2004; Pallagust et al. 2014; Radzimski 2016). (3) Demographic changes (aging population and low fertility; an increase in the unmarried population) and long-term recession have generated aging and empty neighborhoods in Japanese cities (Kubo et al. 2015; Yui et al. 2016). The difficulties in the situation with Japanese cities can be summarized to state that a large part of the above-mentioned housing vacancies tend to be permanent or long-term vacant that can cause subsequent social disorder and expansion of slumlike space (Davis 2006; Shinohara 2011). Gu and Asami (2016) noted that most of the vacant Japanese houses are rarely rented out; therefore, structural or institutional casuals should be solved. Moreover, there is a discussion to see the rise in vacant properties within Japanese as an expansion of empty space or vacuum within the city (Shinohara 2011). We will deal with it in the next section.

1.2.3 A Rise in Empty Space in Japanese Cities According to Mumford (1961), in Medieval cities, overcrowded buildings and populations within walled cities caused livability and sanitary problems. As cities developed, the conditions in cities became slum-like. In the past, these gaps in terms of the residential environment were easily explained by socioeconomic status. The desire

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of the middle-class to get out of these inadequate cities led to the development of garden suburbs in the eighteenth century. Although early suburb offered pleasant lifestyles, the expansion of huge suburban developments, which were characterized by forced solitude and decreased bonding in terms of human relationships and facility arrangements, gradually turned into retrogression. Mumford warned of decline in suburban neighborhoods due to this retrogression and noted that the key to avoiding urban decay was to make the “city” into a functional area that encompassed community bonds, culture, and both urban and rural functions (e.g., Howard’s garden city concept included the idea of creating units with urban functions, as well as rural areas, in suburbs) (Mumford 1961). Regarding the situation of Japanese cities, Munford’s negative prediction seems to have become reality. A large part of the aging suburban neighborhoods was planned to be “bedroom communities” that denote mono-functional housing developments, which have constructed in suburbs since the 1960s, supplementing residential function that city-center cannot fully offer to their workers. Commuting time to central Tokyo expanded more than two hours from the 1970s to the 1980s, it is not commutable for the younger generation today. Less job or higher education opportunities in suburbs stimulated young people to go out of the neighborhoods when they grew up. An increase in abandoned homes due to residents’ aging or death can create a huge vacuum within a neighborhood (Shinohara 2011). A large part of Japanese suburban neighborhoods has expanded beyond commutable distance adequately connected with the core of the region (city center). In particular, this expansion was accelerated in the bubble economy era of the 1980s. These neighborhoods functioned as places for reproduction, and little time remained for commuters to settle down in the community (Kageyama 2004; Kubo 2015). These suburbs began to decline, and fewer opportunities for investment created a split in “hot” and “cold” spots in Tokyo (Hirayama 2005). Uneven development resulted in uneven living conditions within the metropolitan area.

1.3 An Increase in Housing Vacancies in Japanese Cities 1.3.1 The “Problems” with Increased Housing Vacancies in Japanese Cities An increase in housing vacancies has long been regarded as one of the phenomena occurring with depopulation. The massive movement from rural settlements to city centers during high economic growth periods in Japan has been motivated by ample opportunities for higher education, occupational alternatives, or diversified lifestyles that cities offer their residents. However, an increase in housing vacancies in rural settlements has been considered a secondary matter. The most important discussion here was depopulation itself, which created administrative issues with welfare or

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transportation services, weakened the sense of community, devastated croplands or nearby mountains, and left damage by animals (Kubo 2014a, b). However, since the 2010s, discussions on urban housing vacancies have risen because many metropolitan suburbs, which had been developed between the 1960s and 1980s and welcomed post-war baby boomers, gradually became aged settlements and faced serious social problems such as lacking services, sense of community, or security. According to the Statistics Bureau of Japan’s “Population Census 2015,” even in the largest metropolitan areas of Tokyo and Kansai, Chiba, Osaka, Hyogo, and Kyoto prefectures recorded high aging population rate that exceeds 25%. Along with the rise in aging population rate, housing vacancy rate recorded 13.5 and the highest since the beginning of the Statistics in 2013 (Statistics Bureau of Japan, “Housing and Land Survey 2013).” The rate was 2.5% among total housing stock of 21,090 thousand in 1963, when the housing shortage due to rapid industrialization and the following urbanization of Japan was fatal, and it kept on rising with the housing stock increase over time, reaching 11.5% in 1998. Figure 1.1 clearly explains the distribution of housing vacancies. Reflecting the total number of housing stock in each area, the number of housing vacancies varies. The rate of housing vacancies among housing stock of the area, however, shows rapid rise on the outside of 50-km belt of the Tokyo metropolitan area: Relative low areas are 0–10-km belt (13.2%), 10–20-km belt (12.6%), 30–40-km belt (11.9%), and 40–50-km belt (13.3%); and higher in 50–60-km belt with the percentage of 15.9 and 60–70-km belt of 18.8%. Higher areas include huge number of suburban housing estates developed from the 1970s to the 1980s and welcomed growing middle-class families in their 30s or 40s (Tani 1997). Over decades, due to extremely low mobility after homeownership in Japan as a whole, these neighborhoods turned aged communities resulting in high vacancy rate after the death of original owners (see more details in the following chapters). As a hot spot for crimes and a source of uneasiness or direct harm for nearby residents, an increase of housing vacancies in aging suburban settlements captured attention in Japanese society. Indeed, Japanese city areas have begun to shrink in population size or will do so within the next few decades. Social transition that has progressed over decades completely transformed Japanese housing market and Japanese cities (Hino and Tsutsumi 2015; Hirayama and Izuhara 2018). In addition, suburban neighborhoods, with long commuting times into the city, have become less popular as residential areas. Many suburbs also face serious social problems due to an aging population (Naganuma et al. 2006), which directly triggers an increase in housing vacancies (Kubo 2014a, b; Kubo et al. 2015). As the existing residents become older, the age of a housing district naturally increases unless there is an influx of new, younger people (Yui 1999; Kubo et al. 2010). Under such circumstances, not only the national government, but also local municipalities started to address the problems from the rise in housing vacancies. For municipalities, aging population and loss of residents directly decrease their income. Meanwhile, an increase in housing vacancies requires additional costs for security patrols, along with notices to promote proper maintenance of vacant houses, or their demolition when in dangerous condition.

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Fig. 1.1 Housing vacancies in the Tokyo metropolitan area (2013). Source Created based on Housing and Land Survey 2013 (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)

1.3.2 Specific Factors Kubo et al. (2017) understood the specific and generic factors behind an increase in housing vacancies as follows: (1) institutional, topographical, socioeconomic, and emotional conditions as specific factors of individual cases and (2) changes in urban residential structure reflecting urban and housing policies over decades and decline in suburban lifestyles as generic factors of the problem throughout Japan. The former explains the specific casuals of each housing vacancy, usually each case is generated by one or mixture of several casuals within “specific factors,” by reflecting socioeconomic or geographical conditions of each house and its owner, whereas the latter explains fundamental and universal casuals of the problem in Japanese cities as a whole, such as the transformation of urban residential structure and housing policy, socioeconomic conditions, and changes in urban lifestyles over time. The

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next sections delve further into the details based on the typology. Therefore, we must understand that these specific and generic factors cannot be discussed separately, nor do they act as opposites. They are indivisibly connected, and their interrelation forms the total reality of the problem. Nevertheless, to facilitate understanding, we explain the background of the problem by dividing it into specific and generative factors. From homeowners’ perspectives, the following specific factors prevent them from utilizing their homes or demolishing a house to sell its land. First, the fragile, existing house market in Japan, with an overemphasis on and extremely strong preference for newly built houses, makes it difficult for people to decide whether to sell or rent their homes (Yui 2016). Compared to condominiums, detached houses are viewed more unfavorably in the second-hand housing market. Therefore, previously owned homes lose their residents and become vacant, many of which remain vacant for a long time. Second, institutional factors, such as taxation systems on real property are crucial causal factors that lead to a rise in housing vacancies in Japanese cities. A municipal tax reduction is applied to residential lots. Therefore, property owners tend to keep residential buildings on the property, even if they are not well maintained or dilapidated, so as not to change the registered land use. The Japanese government has promoted homeownership by providing reductions on income tax when newly built houses or second-hand houses built within 20 years are purchased using a home loan. Thus, potential owners prefer newly built houses. Besides, less availability of housing loans or tax reductions to buy seasonal/holiday homes not used for regular residential purposes prevented people from owning multiple homes. In addition, the relatively weak market-based transfer restrains elderly people from using their housing assets by renting or selling (Hirayama 2015). On the other hand, family-based transfer prevails, because the Japanese government has promoted inter vivos gifts. Housing conditions can depend on the younger generation’s decision as to whether or not they live in houses passed down from their parents. However, younger generations may live far away, which can impact their decision not to live in these homes and instead leave them vacant. Reflecting the custom of property succession to the next generation, housing vacancies tend to be generated in the following ways. If a discussion among possible property heirs does not go well, inherited property tends to remain vacant after the death of the original owner. Plus, if a new heir does not notify a change in property ownership to the real estate registration, which is not strictly required at present, the property owners tend to be unknown. There are huge numbers of actual properties whose owners are unknown in Japan, which has arisen as a hot topic because a part of vacant home’s owners is unknown. Therefore, many municipalities cannot contact owners of dilapidated housing vacancies. They could not formally find owners by referring to real estate registration until the national government established new countermeasure laws on the increase in housing vacancies in 2015. Furthermore, in recent changes in the amount of deduction when calculating inheritance tax, many middle-class inheritors of their parents’ homes built in metropolitan centers or central areas are newly targeted. To complete the tax payment, a large number of these

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possible heirs are eager to sell their parents’ homes. As the Japanese existing housing market is quite weak, these houses tend to remain vacant for some time. Third, heavy urbanization pressure has caused a shortage of land for housing developments; hence, a large part of housing estates was created in inferior locations such as disaster-prone areas, hilly land, or meadows between the 1960s and 1980s. Topographic barriers around a house or within a neighborhood decrease the continuous living options for elderly residents after decades. Based on the trend in which residential mobility drastically declines the following homeownership in Japan, after several decades, most residents become elderly and find difficulties in continuous living in these areas. These housing developments have created daily barriers for elderly residents, especially after the death of spouse, elderly residents tend to leave their homes in areas with such barriers, and the houses remain vacant (Kubo et al. 2015). Moreover, an aging population and low fertility accelerate the lower demand for housing and decline in existing neighborhoods’ vitality. The strong tendency among elderly people to continuously live in familiar environments can create a concentration of elderly residents in old, owner-occupied housing estates developed several decades ago. In particular, the elderly residents hesitate in their decision to sell or demolish a house if there is a Buddhist altar to an ancestor in the house. Emotional factors, such as the attachment to a home or neighborhood as a connection between descendants and ancestors, do matter as homes symbolize layers of family and individual memories. When these factors combine, the housing vacancies tend to concentrate and increase in old, suburban housing estates, districts with a high ratio of owner occupation and aging population, and commuter belt edges within metropolitan areas.

1.3.3 Generic Factors and Total Reality of the Problem Japan’s post-war urban policies strongly promoted suburbanization between the 1960s and 1980s. However, between the 1990s and 2000s, it dramatically shifted to the redevelopment of city and metropolitan centers, which resulted in an overall decline in suburban neighborhoods (Kubo 2017). In this section, we review post-war urban policies and their effect on urbanization processes, urban residential structures, and housing conditions in Japan (Table 1.1). Japanese spatial plans have largely been based on the Comprehensive National Land Development Act of 1950. The Act established a hierarchical administrative framework for development plans, organized along the national, regional, and prefectural levels (Abe et al. 2018). The first Comprehensive National Development Plan of 1962 aimed to stimulate industrialization, resulting in rapid growth of metropolitan areas. During the 1960s, with high economic growth rate in Japan, major metropolitan areas struggled with urban sprawl and overpopulation. National urban policies then shifted to promote suburban developments.

Urbanization and Industrialization

Suburbanization

Early sign of city-center recovery

Recovery of central city

Shrinking suburbs

1950s 1960s

1970s 1980s

1990s

2000s

2010s

MLIT: new measure

Public intervention

Neoliberal policies

Functional decentralization

Housing regulation

Government

City-center developments

Deregulation

Housing estate in suburbs (private)

Welfare state

Residential mobility within a metropolitan area

Residential career of potential homeowners

Suburban infrastructure (public)

Homeownership

Source Abe et al. (2018), Kubo (2015), Kubo and Yui (2011), Ronald (2008), and Yui et al. (2016)

Urban cycle

Year

Divide within a metropolitan area

Condominium growth

Growth in new housing demand by single women

Horizontal and functional growth of metropolitan areas

Migration to cities

Urban studies

Ideology of homeownership

Table 1.1 Overview of changes in urbanization, governmental intention, academic discussion, and socioeconomic conditions

Aging, population loss, and an increase in vacancies in suburbs

Compact condos for singles, super high-rise for families in central Tokyo

Diversity in lifestyle, households. Move toward unmarried society with independence of women

Social norm: marriage and homeownership

Poor rural versus rich cities

Socioeconomic condition

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Hirayama (2010a) observed that the duration of economic stagnation stimulated the Japanese housing market and drove it toward neoliberalism, during which housing supply and mortgages greatly depended on private companies, with an emphasis on self-responsibility in lifestyle and homeownership. In this way, Japanese earnestly desired to climb the housing ladder to gain a social presence and security (Hirayama 2010b). Over time, suburban housing estates, which were gradually diversified in terms of housing and land price, size, and distance from city centers, accepted these people. For instance, from the 1970s to 1980s in the Tokyo metropolitan area, suburban housing developments expanded even as far out as 100 km, which meant a two-hour commuting time to companies in central Tokyo. After the third Comprehensive National Development Plan of 1977, private developers and local municipalities preferred to use the term “Garden City” for their suburban housing developments (Kikuchi 2004). Although in reality, these housing developments were largely affected by C. A. Perry’s neighborhood unit concept (Perry 1929) rather than E. Howard’s garden city (Howard 1902), the garden term and the marriage of urban and rural areas attracted the growing middle-class who commuted to city centers (Kubo 2017). Both private and public sectors stimulated suburban developments not only in housing but also in transportation and other urban infrastructures at this time. Unlike the original notion of Howard to form units where urban and rural functions could coexist, these suburban neighborhoods tended to be occupied by commuters to city centers (Kubo 2017). The fifth plan, passed in 1998, as well as the 2002 Urban Renaissance Special Measure Law promoted deregulation to stimulate urban redevelopment projects. After the economic bubble burst in 1991 and during the subsequent long-term economic stagnation and decline in land prices, urban redevelopment projects in city centers were regarded as triggers for economic recovery. These projects were successful in large cities such as Tokyo, resulting in population recovery in city centers and a decline in the residential environment in suburban neighborhoods (Hirayama 2005; Kubo 2015). According to Forrest and Hirayama (2009), neoliberal housing policies adopted in Japan and the UK in recent decades have reduced the homeownership rate among the younger generation. Although condominium ownership by dual-income couples, single women with reliable jobs, and wealthy empty-nesters created urban development hot spots in central Tokyo (Hirayama 2005; Lutzeler 2008; Koizumi et al. 2011; Kubo and Yui 2011; Kubo 2015; Ronald et al. 2018), dramatic socioeconomic and demographic changes in Japan overall led to a serious shrinkage in population, housing demand, and residential environment in suburbs or local cities. From the view of total reality, the above-mentioned specific and generic factors are inextricably connected, as each can be a cause or an effect, creating a specific reality as an outcome. For example, the taxation system (a specific factor) reflects urban policies of the 1950s to the 1970s, but later urban policies were also modified or affected by the existing taxation system. Each detail or aspect cannot fully explain the total reality of the problems caused by an increase in housing vacancies in regions with problems. Therefore, it is not the specific factor, but the total reality must be

1 Why the Rise in Urban Housing Vacancies Occurred and Matters …

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targeted by national and municipal governments if they want to deal with the increase in housing vacancies.

1.3.4 Cases of Tokyo Suburbs and Central Gifu According to the authors’ field surveys in case areas, there were a total of 201 housing vacancies found in Ushiku’s four case neighborhoods with 3366 households (6.0%) and 150 in central Gifu’s residential area with 1638 households (9.2%). Among them, vacancies in dilapidated condition accounted for 27.9% (56) and 18.7% (28), respectively. In both areas, more than 75% of housing vacancies were regarded as permanently empty (157 houses, 78.1% in Ushiku; 115 houses, 76.7% in central Gifu). There were 44 houses (21.9%) used as holiday homes or temporary vacancies in Ushiku and 18 houses (12.0%) in Gifu. Figure 1.2 explains the specific reasons for houses being empty. Reflecting the high aging rate of central Gifu, aging factors such as death or hospitalization of owners were dominant. On the other hand, in Ushiku, a large part of houses became empty when owners moved out to buy new house or to live close to their families. Due to the small size of housing lots, younger families purchased them for their firsttime homeownership and moved to larger homes later, especially in neighborhoods with proximity to the main station, such vacancies were rented out. However, in districts without proximity to the station nor rural amenity with large lands, most of the houses became empty due to aging factors (Kubo et al. 2017). On the edge of the commuter belt in the Tokyo suburbs including Ushiku, the aging of the first generation and relocation of the second generation was evident; these areas were developed as bedroom communities for commuters to central Tokyo, and the dominant land uses were houses followed by amenities for residents, with very few

Others, unknown Creating assets Job transfering Live close to family or buying new house Death or hospitalization 0

Central Gifu

20

40

60

80

100

Ushiku: Tokyo suburb

Fig. 1.2 Specific reasons for houses became empty in Gifu and Ushiku. Note Multiple answers. Total numbers of housing vacancies are 201 in the four case neighborhoods in Ushiku and 150 in the case neighborhood in central Gifu. Source Authors’ field survey conducted in 2013 in Ushiku and 2014/2015 in Gifu

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workplaces nearby. The first generation could not purchase houses in city centers or near the suburbs because of high land prices, but now that land prices have fallen and the younger generation can purchase houses closer to central Tokyo. Therefore, if the younger generation works in central Tokyo, they tend to move out of these areas to live in city centers or near the suburbs. The aging of existing residents has progressed in recent decades, and suburban neighborhoods have gradually become aging neighborhoods, which generates housing vacancies. In short, issues related to aging homeowners are found to be responsible for home vacancies in many neighborhoods now, but they are especially dominant in city centers. Suburban neighborhoods, however, differ by their location and situation. In the case district, the aging population is progressing and has affected the generative process of housing vacancies. However, many houses became vacant when their owners were younger due to the purchase of new houses or the need to take care of their parents. Indeed, the aging of residents and the need to take care of elderly parents are the most important factors leading to urban abandonment in Japanese cities.

1.4 Conclusions and Possible Solutions This study aimed to examine how Japanese urban problems have arisen during the post-growth period and why administrative strategies have failed in dealing with them. A rise in housing vacancies was selected as an example of an urban problem that has surfaced over time. As the increase in housing vacancies in Japan was regarded as coinciding with urban shrinkage, housing vacancies in Japanese cities can generate permanent stagnation due to economic-base decline, population loss or aging, institutional reasons, or a combination of these factors. To overcome such situations in Japan, we suggest three solution stages, for the symptomatic solutions, which have been adopted in Gifu city’s countermeasures to deal with housing vacancies: (1) control the increase in problematic housing vacancies by promoting appropriate housing maintenance; (2) promote of distribution and active use of housing vacancies as per regional conditions; and (3) advise abandoned house owners to properly maintain them or demolish them. In addition to the practical measures, local municipalities and real estate agencies are expected to promote transformation from owner occupation to other useful purposes. Limited changes to rental housing, sites for community activities, or day care facilities for children or elderly are found in Japan. We need a system to stimulate more dynamic transformation. For the second solution stages, fundamental treatments are required: (1) For control, we need to introduce the concept of neighborhood associations or homeowners associations as crucial actors to promote overall maintenance of houses, vacancies, common facilities, and neighborhoods. (2) To promote the distribution and active use of housing, there are institutional challenges such as taxation systems, availability of mortgages for existing home purchases, and urban planning methodologies. By

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modifying the taxation system, the government can promote housing demolition to stimulate site redevelopment. In addition, the current system creates serious obstacles for real estate agencies and potential homeowners who wish to buy or sell existing houses. For the former, agencies must purchase vacancies to start the transaction. Therefore, agencies with financial strength can join the existing housing market. For the latter, less mortgage availability or disadvantages in tax reductions with existing houses compared to purchasing newly built ones decrease the intent to purchase existing homes. A system to promote rebuilding or redevelopment on the sites after demolition is necessary. Although there is enough vacant land or housing vacancies in urbanized areas, developers try to find cultivated fields whose owners are eager to sell them to reduce demolition costs and produce new housing districts for young people with strong preferences for newly built houses and new neighborhoods. Overall, the most crucial challenges of problems related to an increase in housing vacancies in a context of rapid aging and shrinkage of cities are that all countermeasures, despite national and municipal governments’ attempts to modify existing systems or laws, deal only with specific factors of the problems. Although new countermeasures have been proposed, they are usually discussed as a part of other topics such as deregulation in urban planning or welfare and cannot be connected to the increase in housing vacancies. Bureaucratic sectionalism avoids dealing with the total reality of the phenomenon. However, the related problems cannot be solved without dealing with the total reality of the matter, including invisible but fundamental generic factors. From this viewpoint, comprehensive urban governance to deal with shrinkage coincidentally with the rapid and unprecedented aging of Japan is required. The top-down political system of Japan cannot reflect the regional diversity within the country. The effective solutions proposed here are akin to the tradition of regional geography to deal with a region or a region with a problem as total reality (Hartshorne 1939, 1959; Johnston 1992). Every region needs countermeasures that suit the regional characteristics. Indeed, geography is essential in dealing with the total reality of such complicated problems. Acknowledgements Our study was financially supported by KAKENHI, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) (# 15H03276) and Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B) (# 26770282).

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Chapter 2

Mapping the Problems of Housing Vacancies in Japan Yoshiki Wakabayashi

Abstract This study examines the regional variation of urban abandonment due to the increase in housing vacancies in Japan by using maps and statistical analysis. Spatial distribution of vacant dwellings by prefecture varies according to the type of vacancy. Vacancies of second dwellings are highly concentrated in resort districts neighboring the Tokyo Metropolitan Region and its outskirts. In contrast, the vacancy rate of dwellings for sale or rent is higher in metropolitan areas. Concerning dwellings classified as the “other” type, prefectures containing depopulated areas in western Japan show high vacancy rates. In the Tokyo Metropolitan Region, the rate of total vacant dwellings by municipality is higher in the outskirts of the metropolitan region, where population is declining and aging. However, regarding the vacant dwellings for sale or rent, the vacancy rate is high not only in central areas but also in suburbs. In contrast, the vacancy rate of the “other” type is high in suburban areas, suggesting that urban abandonment occurs in metropolitan suburbs. Regression analysis of the spatial patterns of the correlation between housing vacancies and demographic variables revealed that population growth rate and elderly ratio are major factors affecting the distribution of vacant dwellings. However, the rate of vacancies of second dwellings and those for sale or rent shows a different tendency. Thus, place-specific explanation and solution for the issue are required. Keywords Housing · Vacancies · Type of vacancy · Regression analysis · Tokyo metropolitan region

2.1 Introduction Japan faces several challenges due to declining birth rates and aging population, resulting in issues of vacant houses that represent shrinking cities. According to Japan’s housing statistics, the number of vacant houses increased and its ratio to the Y. Wakabayashi (B) Department of Geography, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Hachioji, Japan e-mail: [email protected] © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 T. Kubo and Y. Yui (eds.), The Rise in Vacant Housing in Post-growth Japan, Advances in Geographical and Environmental Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-7920-8_2

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total number of dwellings reached 13.5% in 2013. Many local governments have taken measures to address this issue and some private companies have launched new businesses dealing with vacant houses. In addition to Japan, Western countries have also carried out several studies on this topic, as a part of the topic of urban shrinkage (Richardson and Nam 2014; Haase et al. 2014; Pallagst et al. 2014; Hoekstra and Vakili-Zad 2010; Grossmann et al. 2015). Therefore, researchers examined the issue of vacant houses as cause and result of shrinking cities. In Japan, studies on urban planning and architecture have paid close attention to this issue (Asami 2014; Yoshida 2010). These studies have focused on policy making and countermeasures to the issue, namely vacant houses as a resource for redevelopment, and the general process of declining suburbs. Recently, Japanese urban geographers have begun to examine this issue to clarify the current condition of and factors affecting vacant dwellings (Yui et al. 2016). However, the issues pertaining to the background and conditions of vacant houses are different across regions, although, in particular, little is known about how this variation occurs. As Haase et al. (2014) have mentioned, a place-specific and timespecific framework is necessary to explain urban shrinkage and vacant houses. This paper examines the regional variation and its background of urban abandonment due to the increase in housing vacancies in Japan. To this end, first, the geography of housing vacancies in Japan is illustrated through maps with data aggregated at the prefectural level. Next, a statistical analysis of the spatial patterns of the correlation between housing vacancies and demographic variables using municipal data of the Tokyo Metropolitan Region is performed. On the basis of these analyses, the causes of housing vacancies in Japanese cities are discussed.

2.2 Data and Method Data were obtained from the Housing and Land Survey and Population Census of Japan. The Housing and Land Survey (called “Housing Survey” before 1998) has been conducted every five years since 1948 to acquire basic data for the formulation of various housing-related policy measures. In the 2013 Housing and Land Survey, about one-fifth of the enumeration districts of the 2010 Population Census in a national average were sampled, and approximately 210,000 unit districts (hereafter referred to as “enumeration unit districts”) were selected from those demarcated in the enumeration districts as of 1 February, 2013. According to this survey, the status of vacant dwellings can be classified into three types: • Second dwellings; • For rent or sale; • Others (abandoned houses).

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“Second dwellings” are villas that are not usually residences and are used as vacation houses for weekends or holidays, or occasionally used for overnight stays after work. “For rent or sale” are dwellings for rent or sale, whether or not they are newly built. “Others” are houses that have not been inhabited for a long time because of transference or hospitalization, or those to be destroyed for the purpose of reconstruction. Under a special measures law that came into force in 2015, old, empty houses posing a danger to the public can be demolished throughout Japan without the owner’s consent. This type of vacancy is mainly contained in the “other dwellings” category mentioned above. Under the new law, buildings can be designated as “special empty houses” if they ruin the area scenery, if they are a danger to the environment, or if they are extremely unhygienic because of rat infestation. If such a designation is made, municipal governments are entitled to enter and inspect the property. If the owner refuses an inspection request, the municipal governments can impose an administrative penalty on the owners. Municipal governments have welcomed the new law as it allows them to deal more efficiently with the mounting problems of old abandoned or empty houses. Since the number of vacant houses is affected by the composition of the housing type and the demand-supply balance in the real-estate market, the issue of housing vacancy varies according to the region. Thus, the regional characteristics of housing vacancy and the factors that affect it based on the housing statistics will be examined using maps and statistical analysis in the subsequent sections.

2.3 Geography of Housing Vacancies in Japan Figure 2.1 shows the trend of the rate of housing vacancy and the number of households in Japan. After the second half of the 1980s, the total number of vacant houses and the ratio of “others” increased remarkably, excluding holiday houses or those for rent or sale. In particular, the last type, “other dwellings” containing old abandoned houses, creates serious problems for nearby neighborhoods or a living environment. Figure 2.2 illustrates the relationship between type of buildings and status of vacant dwellings. According to this image, more than half of the second dwellings and other dwellings are detached houses. This means that these types of vacant houses are located mainly in suburbs or rural areas. In contrast, most of the dwellings for rent or sale are apartments. Thus, this type of vacant dwellings seems to be located in the central city or urbanized areas. In order to capture the spatial patterns of vacant dwellings, this study developed several maps (Fig. 2.3). In the national scale, maps have been developed to show the distribution of each type of vacant house in Japan by prefecture. Higher vacancy rates are observed in mountainous areas in central Japan, namely Yamanashi (22.0%) and Nagano (19.7%) prefectures, which contain depopulated areas and resort districts. However, the spatial distribution of vacant houses varies according to their conditions.

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Fig. 2.1 Trend of housing vacancy rate and number of households in Japan. Source Created based on 2013 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)

Fig. 2.2 Type of buildings by vacant status. Source Created based on 2013 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)

Second dwellings are highly concentrated in resort districts close to the Tokyo Metropolitan Region, such as Yamanashi, Nagano, and Shizuoka prefectures. Since these prefectures are easily accessible from Tokyo, there are many villas belonging to people living in the Tokyo Metropolitan Region. In contrast, the rate of vacant dwellings for sale or rent is higher in metropolitan areas. This may be caused by the high mobility of the population and the continuous housing development in metropolitan areas. Even if dwellings in the metropolis are temporarily vacant, they can be traded in housing markets soon. Thus, this type of housing vacancy may not cause serious problems. Concerning the “other” types of vacancy, prefectures containing depopulated areas in western Japan show high vacancy rates. Population aging also has progressed in these prefectures. In particular, higher rate of this type of vacancy is observed in western Japan.

2 Mapping the Problems of Housing Vacancies in Japan

Total vacant dwellings

Vacant dwellings for sale or rent

27

Second dwellings

Others

Fig. 2.3 Proportion of vacancies for total dwellings by their conditions in Japan. Source Created based on 2013 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)

As shown in these maps, the variations in the spatial patterns suggest that different factors affect the emergence of vacant houses according to their conditions.

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(%)

(%)

30 24 18 12 6

16 12 8 4 No data

No data

Total vacant dwellings

Vacant dwellings for sale or rent

Second dwellings

(%)

(%)

10 8 6 4 2

5 4 3 2 1

No data

No data

Others

Fig. 2.4 Share of vacant dwellings by municipality in the Tokyo Metropolitan Region (% of total housing stock; 2013). Source Created based on 2013 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)

2.4 Spatial Patterns and Causes of Housing Vacancies in the Tokyo Metropolitan Region Within the Tokyo Metropolitan Region, more than half of the vacant dwellings are available for rent or sale and are expected to be traded in the real-estate market. However, the number of abandoned houses, which are located mainly in the suburbs and sometimes cause harmful effects in the neighborhood, has increased notably. In order to examine the detailed distribution of vacant houses within the Tokyo Metropolitan Region, maps of the vacancy rates by municipality were created (Fig. 2.4). The total vacant housing rate is higher in the outskirts of the metropolitan region where the population is declining. A similar pattern is observed in the distribution of second dwellings, where higher rates are found in the resort area of the Boso Peninsula in Chiba Prefecture.

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Fig. 2.5 Share of vacant dwellings by distance from the central city within the Tokyo Metropolitan Region in 2013. Source Created based on 2013 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)

Concerning the vacant dwellings for sale or rent, a complicated pattern is observed: the vacancy rate is high not only in central areas but also in suburbs. This indicates that the spatial distribution of this type of vacancy can be affected by the local conditions of the housing market. In contrast, the rate of the “other” type of vacancy is high in suburban areas, suggesting that urban abandonment occurs in metropolitan suburbs. As mentioned above, the spatial patterns of vacant dwellings are supposedly related to depopulation and aging. To confirm this tendency of spatial distribution of vacant houses by type, I examined the variation in the share of vacant dwellings among zones based on distance from the central city of the Tokyo Metropolitan Region. Figure 2.5 shows that the vacancy share in second dwellings and other dwellings is relatively large in areas further away from central Tokyo. This implies that there are resort districts and shrinking suburbs in the outskirts of the metropolitan area. In contrast, the rate of vacant dwellings for rent or sale is higher in zones within 30 km from central Tokyo. This reflects active trade in the housing market in the central city. In order to examine factors affecting the spatial pattern of “other” vacancies, maps showing population growth rates and the ratio of elderly individuals in the Tokyo Metropolitan Region were developed (Fig. 2.6). After the first half of the 1990s, population recovery was observed in central Tokyo because of declining land values and the deregulation policy of the government. As a result, depopulation has occurred in some parts of the suburbs, as shown in Fig. 2.6a. The trend of depopulation is closely related to the rate of the elderly population. Figure 2.6b shows that depopulated areas correspond entirely to the metropolitan suburbs where the aging of population has progressed. To confirm the relationship between housing vacancy and the population trend, a step-wise regression analysis was conducted. Standardized regression coefficients in Table 2.1 indicate that housing vacancies of the “other” type emerge in areas where the population has declined and aged. Thus, it is evident that urban abandonment due to house vacancy has emerged in the suburbs of the Tokyo Metropolitan Region. However, the vacancy rates of second dwellings and those for sale or rent show a different tendency. Regression coefficients for these types of vacancies suggest that factors apart from population can affect this type of housing vacancies.

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(a) Population growth rate (2005-2010)

(b) Ratio of the elderly population (aged 65 or over, 2010)

Fig. 2.6 Population growth and ratio of the elderly population in the Tokyo Metropolitan Region. Source Created based on 2013 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) Table 2.1 Results of regression analysis: standardized regression coefficient

Independent Dependent variable: rate of vacant dwellings variable Second For rent or sale Others dwellings Population growth rate

0.165 *

-

Ratio of elderly

0.479 **

−0.612

Ratio of old dwellings

0.330 **

0.237

R2

0.460

0.193

−0.168

*

**

0.584

**

*

-

0.494

*p < 0.05, **p < 0.01 Only regression coefficients significant at 0.05 or less are shown

In particular, Table 2.1 shows that the ratio of old dwellings raises the rate of vacancies for these types.

2.5 Conclusion This paper examined the regional variation and its background of urban abandonment due to the increase in housing vacancies in Japan using maps and statistical analysis. The findings obtained from this analysis are summarized as follows. Spatial distribution of vacant dwellings by prefecture varies with the type of vacancy. Second dwellings (e.g., villas) are highly concentrated in resort districts next to the Tokyo Metropolitan Region and its outskirts. In contrast, the rate of

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vacant dwellings for sale or rent is higher in metropolitan areas. Concerning the “other” type, prefectures containing depopulated areas in western Japan show high vacancy rates. In the Tokyo Metropolitan Region, the rate of total vacant dwellings by municipality is higher in the outskirt of the metropolitan region, where population is declining and aging. However, regarding the vacant dwellings for sale or rent, the vacancy rate is high not only in central areas but also in suburbs. In contrast, the rate of the “other” type of vacancy is high in suburban areas, suggesting that urban abandonment occurs in metropolitan suburbs. Regression analysis of the spatial patterns of the correlation between housing vacancies and demographic variables revealed that population growth rate and elderly ratio are the main factors affecting the distribution of vacant dwellings. However, the vacancy rates of second dwellings and those for sale or rent show a different tendency: the spatial pattern of vacant dwellings for rent or sale is affected by the ratio of old dwellings. Therefore, place-specific explanation and solution to the issue are required.

References Asami T (ed) (2014) Thinking about vacant land/house in cities. Progress, Tokyo Grossmann K, Arndt T, Haase A, Rink D, Steinfuhrer A (2015) The influence of housing oversupply on residential segregation. Urban Geography 36:550–577 Haase A, Rink D, Grossmann K, Bernt M, Mykhnenko V (2014) Conceptualizing urban shrinkage. Environ Plan A 46:1519–1534 Hoekstra J, Vakili-Zad C (2010) High vacancy rates and rising house prices: the Spanish paradox. Tijdsch Econ Soc Geogr 102:55–71 Pallagst K, Miechmann T, Martinez-Fernandez C (eds) (2014) Shrinking cities: international perspectives and policy implications. Routledge, London Richardson HW, Nam CW (2014) Shrinking cities: a global perspective. Routledge, London, New York Yoshida T (2010) Shrinking suburbs and their regeneration: a perspective of shrinking cities. Koyoshobo, Kyoto Yui Y, Kubo T, Nishiyama H (eds) (2016) An increase in problematic housing vacancies in Japanese cities: geographical strategies to make better solution. Kokon-shoin, Tokyo

Chapter 3

Changes in Essential Facilities of Housing Estates in an Aging Society: The Failure of City Planning in Japan Yoshimichi Yui

Abstract In Japan, suburban housing estates have been rapidly aging in recent years. The reason for this is that in a short period of time, during the high economic growth period, a large number of monotonous houses without diversity in the layout and sales price zone were constructed, with homogeneity in the life stage, age composition, and social position. Consequently, in many suburban housing estates, the number of elderly people has increased due to the loss of the young generation and the total number of elderly people has increased due to the aging of residents. Since such aging occurs simultaneously, the state of aging in suburban regions is progressing remarkably. As a result of such aging, vacant houses are increasing in suburban housing estates due to the death of the elderly and the decision to moving into a facility, causing serious problems in crime and disaster prevention. At the beginning of development, suburban housing estate planners often assume the childrearing generation as residents and the facilities in the residential estates that are educational facilities, such as kindergartens, other child-rearing facilities, and elementary schools, as purchasers of food and daily necessities. Commercial facilities and child parks that are playgrounds for children are often systematically arranged. Shrinking suburbs cause several problems. One of the serious problems is the safety of communities, which is the responsibility of community’s members; suspicious persons are likely to invade vacant houses, since nobody maintains them. Moreover, it is difficult to maintain houses because of residents’ aging; ensuring cleanliness within houses and gardens is also difficult. Furthermore, many public facilities and shopping centers have been closed due to depopulation. People must travel by bus or trains for shopping. Although the elderly people depend on cars, they can no longer drive by themselves. Keywords Welfare facilities · Housing estate · Aging · Town planning

Y. Yui (B) Graduate School of Education, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan e-mail: [email protected] © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 T. Kubo and Y. Yui (eds.), The Rise in Vacant Housing in Post-growth Japan, Advances in Geographical and Environmental Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-7920-8_3

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3.1 Introduction 3.1.1 Background Suburbs are not the ideal place for every family, and depopulation has occurred in several metropolitan regions. According to many traditional urban growth models, suburbs are continuously growing and the population inflow has occurred as a commuter town of the metropolitan regions. However, this trend has been changing, since the population in old suburban areas is decreasing, while that in the inner cities is increasing. Recently, Japanese old suburban housing estates, which were developed before the 1970s, are declining, as they face several serious problems, particularly those of residents’ aging and population decrease, which are caused by long-term dwelling. Since many Japanese believe that the “Japan dream” is occupancy of a detached house in a suburb, Japanese suburban residents tend to stay after child rearing. Further, another severe problem is the increase of vacant houses. In this study, the author aims to clarify the conditions of shrinking suburbs in Japanese cities and introduce some activities for suburb revitalization; the author will discuss suburb revitalization from the perspective of geographical studies. Suburban housing estates have been rapidly aging in recent years. The reason is that in a short period of time, during the high economic growth period, a large number of monotonous houses without diversity in the layout and sales price zone were constructed, with homogeneity in the life stage, age composition, and social position. Therefore, in many suburban housing estates, the number of elderly people has increased due to the loss of the young generation and the total number of elderly people has increased due to the aging of residents. Since such aging occurs simultaneously, the state of aging is progressing remarkably. Other countries experience different problems in the suburban regions. In the case of American suburbs, the most serious problem for residents is poverty due to economic recession, which worsens the security of neighborhoods, resulting in serious social problems. Furthermore, the residents’ population has diversified because of the increase in the transfer of non-white races from white-based communities (Anacker 2015; Hanlon et al. 2010; Nicolaides and Wiese 2006). In particular, African-American and Chinese people have shifted urban cores to suburbs; thus, David Ley’s “white urbanization” has become a thing of the past. On the other hand, there are few crises as well as less poverty and diversification in the suburbs of Japanese metropolitan regions. Aging is the most serious problem in Japan, which results in an increasing number of vacant houses and shrinking communities. Furthermore, shrinking suburbs cause several problems; one such major problem is the safety of communities, which is the responsibility of community members; suspicious persons are likely to invade vacant houses, since nobody maintains them. Morevoer, it is difficult to maintain house because of residents’ aging; ensuring cleanliness in houses and gardens is also difficult. Furthermore, many public facilities and shopping centers have been closed due to depopulation. Therefore, people

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must travel by bus or trains for shopping. Although the elderly people depend on cars, they can no longer drive by themselves.

3.1.2 Purpose of This Study The first aim of this study is to clarify the changes in suburban neighborhoods in the Japanese metropolitan regions; we particularly focus on the aging and the change of family members in order to clarify suburbs’ shrinking conditions. The second aim is to elucidate that these crises are caused by town planning and Japanese housing choices. The authors believe that researching suburban issues in an aging Japanese society can provide solutions for the progression of a global aging society in the future.

3.2 Planning of Suburban Housing Estates in Japan After the 1960s, due to the migration of a large population from rural areas to large cities during the period of high economic growth, housing shortage became a critical problem in metropolitan areas. In order to solve this problem, a large number of housing estates were developed in the suburbs of metropolitan regions. However, every housing estate was developed for a short term and the supplied houses in these estates were diversity-free detached houses and monotonous apartment groups. There are various restrictions on residential land development in Japan. In Japan, housing development of cities is meticulously regulated according to the Guidelines for Development of Residential Land. For example, in large-scale development, it is impossible for developers to provide sites such as schools, parks, commercial sites, and community sites. At the beginning of development, many suburban housing complexes often assume child-rearing generation as residents and the facilities in the residential estates that are educational facilities, such as kindergartens, child-rearing facilities, and elementary schools, as purchasers of food and daily necessities. Many commercial facilities are systematically arranged for young families. During the development of residential land in Japan, facilities for senior citizens were prepared at the beginning, and therefore there were no measures for aging. Many newly developed housing estates were supplied in a short time, resulting in a bias for residents’ age group. Due to the aging of the residents, the number of children in elementary schools decreased significantly, classrooms became empty, and commercial facilities that had products for young parenting households at the center of residential estates had to respond to the needs of the aged people. At some places, the shops were closed sequentially and shutters were installed.

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3.3 Aging in Suburbs In old housing estates, the first generation of migrants grew older and continued living in their own house in suburban areas. Furthermore, their children grew up and moved out. Therefore, aging communities without young generations were popularly found in the suburbs due to the failure of town planning, which supplied the same type of houses for a short term. Furthermore, increases in vacancy of old suburban housing estates were observed, resulting in a new type of uneasiness, social troubles, and decrease in housing prices (Yui 2017; Yui et al. 2016, 2017). As a countermeasure, some suburban communities tried to vitalize and promote community activities. Suburban housing estates rapidly lost their appeal after the 1990s; however, housing demand shifted from the suburbs to the inner cities. Young generation and the elderly sought convenient places in inner cities. Suburbanization ended and suburbs began shrinking due to changes in urban housing market and lifestyles. Amidst such aging, facilities for the elderly have been increasing in suburban housing estates in recent years. Facilities planned and developed for child-rearing households are no longer consistent with the aging population’s attributes; improvement of living convenience and welfare facilities for the elderly is required. Therefore, this study focuses on the location of nursing care insurance service projects, such as nursing home care and home care facilities, among welfare facilities for elderly people in suburban housing estates, and examines the location of nursing care welfare facilities in the suburban housing estates of Hiroshima city. We also highlight the failure of Japanese town planning. At present, suburban neighborhoods have become less popular as residential areas and are experiencing serious social problems, such as the aging of residents. They stay in suburbs after their children have moved out. The aging population phenomenon has also highlighted unique characteristics of the housing market in Japan. At the early stage of development, the age structure of residents reveled that young nuclear families were dominant. However, after three decades, householder couples got old and their children moved out. As a result, the age composition of the residents in housing estates that have been built for a long time has advanced remarkably due to aging (Fig. 3.1). Such super-aging has also resulted in the decline of essential facilities in suburban housing estates. Shops and supermarkets, which catered to young households, had fewer items for the elderly, and the commercial within the residential area declined. As the participation of young households in community activities declined, the elderly became the players of community activities.

3.4 Increasing Vacant Houses and Depopulation in Suburbs The aging of residents has resulted in the occurrence of vacant houses. After children grow up and become independent of their parents for admission, job hunting, mar-

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Fig. 3.1 Age structure in suburban housing estate in Kure city. Source Created by editing 2010 Population Census (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications 2012)

Fig. 3.2 “Shuttered street” in a housing estate, in Tama New town (photo by author)

riage etc., parents’ generation remained in suburban residential areas. However, in such areas, when parents aged further, the number of vacant houses with no resident is rapidly increasing due to moving into or dying within the facility. Since suburban residential areas are designed for the young generation, there are many slopes and stairs; thus, elderly people face difficulties living in such residential areas (Yui et al. 2014). Furthermore, shopping malls or shops in housing estates have closed recently. Some shopping streets became “Shuttered street” (Fig. 3.2), which represents many closed-down shops or offices. Thus, the major reasons for the decline of shopping areas are the decreasing population, mismatch between goods supplied and demands of residents, existence of vacant stores, and emergence of “shuttered streets,” which subsequently increase vacancies. Because suburban housing estates were originally targeted toward child-rearing households, welfare facilities for elderly people were rarely established at the very

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Fig. 3.3 Care service facilities for the elderly in suburbs (Yui 2018) (photo by author)

beginning of development. However, due to the aging of residents, the long-term care insurance service business is now more likely to be located in suburban areas. The biggest problem is that Japanese people tend to purchase few second-hand houses, mostly seeking new housing. In addition, the number of people oriented toward the city center has increased, and the appeal of suburban residential areas is rapidly decreasing. The reason for the establishment of such large-scale welfare service offices in residential complexes is that as the number of elderly people increased, there was enough vacant land that had not been sold within the residential complex. In addition, the reasons for easy acquisition of a large portion of land include decline in land prices due to a decline in demand for housing complexes.

3.5 Usage Status of Welfare Service Offices in Residential Estates Due to the aging of residents, care service businesses are increasing in suburban areas (Yui 2018). Since suburban housing estates were originally developed for young nuclear family households in childcare period, welfare facilities for elderly people were rarely considered at the development plan formulation stage or installed at the time of initial development. However, due to the aging of residents, the care service business for elderly is now more likely to be located in suburban areas. Numerous large-scale special nursing homes for elderly have been established in the vacant land in the existing residential estates and in the adjacent areas of the residential estates (Fig. 3.3). These care services are supplied not only for the occupants of the residential estates but also for residents in the surrounding regions. The author examined the location of long-term care service providers and their facilities within the residential estates at Hiroshima city using a detailed residential map (Yui 2018) and learned that the total number of care services for the elderly

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Fig. 3.4 Distribution of special nursing homes for the elderly in Hiroshima city. (reprinted from Yui 2018, Copyright 2018) (created based on the data from Hiroshima city: http://www.city.hiroshima. lg.jp/www/genre/1266306475035/index.html. Accessed 1 Oct 2017)

in Hiroshima city is 2218. Most of care services in the housing estates are in-home nursing care, followed by in-home nursing care support, visiting nursing care, shortterm residence life care, and community-based type direct nursing care. Most of these welfare services were not established immediately after the development of residential complexes; rather, many were opened in the last ten years in response to the aging of residents in housing estates. According to Fig. 3.4, nursing home facilities for the elderly are almost evenly distributed in the urban area; however, few such facilities are found in the city center. Many care service offices are located in suburban regions. Since nursing homes for elderly require a certain portion of land area, the land prices are apparently low; as the aging has progressed and the number of vacant houses is increasing, it is possible to establish nursing homes in suburban areas where the demand for nursing homes is high. “Communal daily long-term care” is a service that requires visiting the institution on a day trip to receive nursing care, functional training, etc. on everyday life activities, such as meals and bathing. In addition, it is a service facility that prevents withdrawal and isolation by contacting other users at facilities; it can also relieve the burden of nursing care during the day for families who take care. According to Fig. 3.5, nursing home care facilities are accumulated in built-up areas and inner suburbs; therefore, it is believed that a

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Fig. 3.5 Distribution of nursing home care facilities in Hiroshima city (Yui 2018) (reprinted from Yui 2018, Copyright 2018) (created based on the data from Hiroshima city: http://www. city.hiroshima.lg.jp/www/genre/1266306475035/index.html. Accessed 1 Oct 2017) Fig. 3.6 The day service nursing home for the elderly, changed from supermarket (Yui 2018)

nursing home care facility can be established within a large-scale nursing care facilities or can be operated in a comparatively smaller space than in-home nursing care facility. Consequently, some of the residential care facilities located in the suburban residential area diverted to the closed supermarket (Fig. 3.6). Home care support services are distributed in the built-up areas and inner suburbs; however, it is easy to set up offices within a home or vacant house. Moreover, although

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many home care support services are located in suburban areas, very few are located within housing estates. Therefore, in housing estates where the aging progresses, the number of establishments of visiting nursing care services and in-home care support is increasing. Despite having nursing care services in the neighboring area, many elderly people in housing estates rely on services outside the area. In fact, many users commute from other surrounding housing estates; there are very few users within the home estates. Although the elderly wish to continue living at home or in a familiar living environment, they have a sense of resistance toward visiting nursing care centers located near neighbors’ residents in the same estate. The reason for this is that they do not want the neighboring residents to know that they cannot live independently because they are aging and are using nursing care services for day care services; they feel ashamed to receive such services.

3.6 Conclusion The progress of aging in suburban housing estates is an important factor in the increase of nursing care welfare facilities in suburban regions. In suburban residential areas, where there are few large families, only after the children leave their parents’ house due to employment, admission, marriage or the like, only the elderly couple tends to remain. Furthermore, if residents become older at the latter stage, either one of the couple will remain and become a single household, and therefore care for the elderly will have to depend on the facility or regional professional welfare services, rather than the family. In addition, the aging of residential housing residents affects changes in the use of commercial facilities, besides the increase in nursing care service offices. Under such circumstances, efforts are underway to revitalize residential estates, and in Toyosakidai in Kashiwa city, welfare facilities, such as childcare centers, elderly facilities, hospitals, etc., are transferred to regional centers during the redevelopment. There are efforts of regional comprehensive care that combines nursing care and medical treatment in order to support elderly people. In addition, efforts to secure housing for elderly people (Shirakawa 2014) and to divert welfare of vacant homes and buildings are being conducted across the country as a regional good neighbor (Architectural Institute of Japan 2012). However, from the survey of the use situation, many elderly people tend to avoid using both the nursing care welfare facility in their neighbor’s residential estate and the visiting nursing care service. The use of service resources in the neighborhood for nursing care of the elderly also improves cooperation with the local community, and therefore it is important to communicate with each other through “community watching activities” and various events in the community; there is a demand for building up such activities. Lifestyle convenience facilities that were originally intended for child-rearing households in suburban housing estates have to change their applications in response to the aging of residents. Future urban planning and redevelopment projects must

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incorporate a welfare service office that presupposes various residents’ arrangements in the near future. Acknowledgements This research was financially supported by the following KAKENHI: (1) Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Project number 15H03276, PI’s Yoshimichi Yui at Hiroshima University.

References Anacker KB (ed) (2015) The new American suburb: poverty, race and the economic crisis. Routledge, London Architectural Institute of Japan (2012) Welfare diversion of vacant houses and vacant buildings: conversion of regional resources. Gakugei Shuppan-sha, Tokyo Hanlon B, Short JR, Vicino TJ (2010) Cities and suburbs: new metropolitan realities in the US. Routledge Hiroshima city http://www.city.hiroshima.lg.jp/www/genre/1266306475035/index.html. Accessed 1 Oct 2017 Nicolaides BM, Wiese A (eds) (2006) The suburb reader. Routledge Population Census (2012) Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Portal site of Official Statistics of Japan https://www.e-stat.go.jp/. Accessed 5 July 2018 Shirakawa Y (2014) Regional good-neighboring project made with vacant house and life support: regional inclusive care linked with housing. Chuo-houki, Tokyo Yui Y (2017) Actual prices of suburban existing houses in Hiroshima city. Annals of Japan Society for Urbanology 50:289–294 Yui Y (2018) Increasing welfare services and feature of uses in aging suburban housing estates. Ann Jpn Soc Urbanology 51:169–176 Yui Y, Sugitani M, Kubo T (2014) The housing vacancies in suburbs: a case study of Kure city. Jpn J Urban Geogr 9:69–77 Yui Y, Kubo T, Nishiyama H (eds) (2016) An increase in problematic housing vacancies in Japanese cities: geographical strategies to make better solution. Kokon-shoin, Tokyo Yui Y, Kubo T, Miyazawa H (2017) Shrinking and super-aging suburbs in Japanese metropolis. Sociol Study 7(4):195–204

Part II

Case Studies

Chapter 4

Geodemographic Characteristics of Vacant Houses in the Resale Condominium Market in the Kansai Metropolitan Area Yoji Kamimura, Masaya Uesugi and Keiji Yano Abstract The stock of condominiums for resale in the Kansai metropolitan area has been growing, and resale volume in that market continues to increase. Despite that growth, there is some concern that housing for resale in certain suburban areas far from major cities and in some inner-city neighborhoods may become “dead stock,” as some homes for sale in and around city centers have been, conspicuously, staying on the market longer and selling at lower prices. In this chapter, we present issues related to leveraging the resale housing market to address the problem of condominium dead stock through a study of the relationships between the characteristics of local residents and the local condominium resale market based on geodemographics and local differences in the stock of vacant homes for sale. Keywords Condominium resale market · Vacant housing stock · Time-on-market · Geodemographics · Kansai metropolitan area

4.1 Introduction Existing research on vacant housing, and particularly on the increase in the amount of vacant housing in Japan, has generally consisted of studies to assess the local situation and look at potential uses for those dwellings; such studies generally emerge from the fields of real estate science, architecture, and urban economics. Studies are also found in urban geography, such as one by Yui et al. (2016) regarding the underlying factors and potential solutions for vacant housing in major urban areas. When investigating Y. Kamimura (B) Geo Laboratory Inc., Osaka, Japan e-mail: [email protected] M. Uesugi Fukuoka Institute of Technology, Fukuoka, Japan K. Yano Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto, Japan © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 T. Kubo and Y. Yui (eds.), The Rise in Vacant Housing in Post-growth Japan, Advances in Geographical and Environmental Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-7920-8_4

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how to address this growing problem, emphasis is often placed on strategies to prevent housing from being abandoned and falling into disrepair. However, the resale housing market also has an important role to play in resolving this problem. Relevant studies include an analysis of Japan’s vacant housing stock based on findings from the government’s Housing and Land Survey, as well as a fact-finding survey (Sugimoto et al. 2016). Regarding vacant homes languishing on the housing market, Suzuki and Asami (2017) used multiple regression to show the relationship between time-on-market and price by distance from the city center along a particular train line in the greater Tokyo metropolitan area. Recent studies in Western countries also focus on price and time-on-market as important indicators of housing market (Dubé and Legros 2016; He et al. 2017; Khezr 2015; McGreal et al. 2009; Sirmans et al. 2010). Fewer studies have been conducted on vacant housing, particularly condominiums, in Japan than overseas from the viewpoint of the supply and demand of housing stock. In Japan, they occupy an important position in the resale housing market because the proportion of apartment residents is excessive especially in urban areas, and there is concern about the lowering standards of condominiums due to increasing vacancy and aging in recent years. In addition, Ong and Koh (2000), Pryce and Gibb (2006) showed that not only sale price but also time-onmarket differs by submarket in a variety of contexts. Nevertheless, the structure of the real estate market by the submarket based on the socioeconomic environment of local communities in Japan is not fully understood. In this chapter, we will discuss local community structures related to the stock of vacant condominiums for sale using geodemographics. Geodemographics is widely used in fields such as marketing and public policy as a means to understand the spatial and socioeconomic preferences of the residents of different neighborhoods based on complex datasets, beginning with national census data (Harris et al. 2005; Webber and Burrow 2018). While this method is frequently used in the USA and the UK (Singleton and Spielman 2014), it has seen limited use in Japan. The purpose of the study described in this chapter was to use geodemographics to identify factors underlying local differences in the stock of vacant condominiums for resale in the Kansai metropolitan area, which has relatively active housing turnover. We looked how those factors related to properties that had languished on the market (“dead stock”) as well as how they affected the extent of those local differences.

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4.2 The Characteristics of Local Condominium Resale Markets and Neighborhood Types in the Kansai Metropolitan Area 4.2.1 The Kansai Metropolitan Area The Kansai metropolitan area (hereafter Kansai), which straddles six prefectures1 in Western Japan is Japan’s second most populous metropolitan area after Tokyo. According to the 2013 Housing and Land Survey by Statistics Bureau of Japan, the area’s condominium inventory consisted of approximately 11,611,000 units. That represented a 13.5% increase over 2008—a remarkable gain, given that it occurred in the midst of a continual decrease in population. In addition, resale transaction volume in condominiums has continued to rise. According to data from the Kinki Real Estate Information Network System (Kinki REINS),2 in this area in 2015, there were 17,189 resales of condominiums, a 25.2% increase over 2010. The average selling price in 2015 was ¥18,940,000, a 12.8% increase over 2010 (Fig. 4.1). While the Kansai condominium resale market has been growing overall, sale prices differ circumstantially, suggesting there exists a stock of vacant condominiums that remain on the market for long periods of time due to property characteristics.

4.2.2 Study Data In this study, we used listing and sales agreement data3 for the six prefectures from Kinki REINS for January 2010 through December 2015 to determine the time-onmarket and the list-to-sale discount rate for condominiums that had been resold. Relevant data included the listing and sale dates and prices reported by the real estate brokers in charge of the transactions, as well as the properties’ building characteristics (e.g., square footage, property age) and information related to location factors (e.g., address, distance to the nearest railway station). Time-on-market was the number of days that passed from the listing of the home to its sale, and the list-to-sale 1 In

this study, the six prefectures being referred to as making up part of the Kansai metropolitan area were Shiga, Kyoto, Osaka, Hyogo, Nara, and Wakayama. 2 The Kinki Real Estate Information Network System (Kinki REINS) is a public interest incorporated association designated by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism based on the Building Lots and Buildings Transaction Business Act. It was set up for the exchange of information between real estate brokers regulated by the six Kansai prefectures. Brokers report data related to their listings, principally of existing homes, and information on closings; the law mandates the reporting of information related to exclusive (when the seller grants a single broker the right to sell) and non-exclusive listing agreements. 3 We applied to Kinki REINS to use some of their sales contract data. We used the data received to calculate time-on-market from the difference between the dates reported for the listing and the sale and to calculate the list-to-sale discount rate based on the reported selling and listing prices.

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Fig. 4.1 The number of resales of condominiums and the average selling price in the Kansai metropolitan area. Source Kinki Real Estate Information Network System

discount rate was the discount the seller accepted, expressed as a percentage of the listing price, to sell the home. We considered communities with larger values for these indicators at risk for dead stock. By analyzing the relationships between these indicators and the building characteristics and locations of vacant housing for sale, along with geodemographics that showed characteristics of local neighborhoods such as population, household makeup, and the local housing situation, we were able to identify characteristics of the types of neighborhoods prone to having dead stock. For the geodemographic data, we employed Experian Mosaic Japan 2010 (Experian Japan Co., Ltd.). Experian Mosaic Japan 2010 used the characteristics of the residents of approximately 220,000 neighborhoods throughout Japan, based on the 2010 national census, consumer behavior data, and estimates of number of households by income level to classify all neighborhoods into 52 different neighborhood types (“Mosaic Type”) which were aggregated into 14 neighborhood groups (“Mosaic Group”).4 For this study, we used the Mosaic Groups but referred to them as neighborhood types. These data are considered effective indicators for identifying types of neighborhoods related to housing submarket in Japanese urban areas. They have been used, for example, in the study of disparities in educational performance among schools (Uesugi and Yano 2018) and in the study of underlying factors related to burglaries (Uesugi et al. 2018).

4 For details (in Japanese), refer to the Experian Japan Co. Ltd. website at https://www.experian.co.

jp/ems/mosaic.html; an English-language version is available at http://www.japanmosaic.com (last visited on June 18, 2018).

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4.2.3 Condominium Sales Statistics by Neighborhood Type Table 4.1 shows a summary of the basic statistics we used for the Kansai condominium sales by neighborhood type. Figure 4.2 shows the distributions throughout the metropolitan area of the condominiums sold by neighborhood type. Among the data for 48,181 transactions used in the analysis, frequent sales were particularly prevalent in neighborhood types D, B, G, and N. Time-on-market and list-to-sale discount rates for type D properties, the most frequently sold, were shorter and smaller than average for Kansai. They were distributed in high-priced areas such as the Hokusetsu area in the northern part of Osaka Prefecture and the Hanshin area between the cities of Osaka and Kobe. Similarly, sales of type G properties were mostly found in the city centers of Osaka, Kyoto, and Kobe. These data suggested that, in these areas, there was a relatively low probability of condominiums remaining vacant. On the other hand, time-on-market and the list-to-sale discount rates for type N properties were larger than the Kansai average and were found in lower-priced areas, such as those in the inner cities of Osaka and Kobe, as well as Kyoto. Type B properties had a similar distribution to type D properties and also had high sale prices, but their time-on-market were longer and list-to-sale discount rates larger than the Kansai averages, suggesting that there was a higher probability of condominiums remaining vacant in those types of neighborhoods. Thus, taking a quick look at these condominium sales indicators by neighborhood type alone suggests there are various other underlying factors affecting the relationship between these indicators, locations of condominiums for resale, and the stock of vacant housing. To identify those factors, we performed statistical analyses controlling for various factors to better understand the relationships between timeon-market, list-to-sale discount rate, and property and local characteristics. These analyses will be described in the next section. It should be noted that because the geodemographic data are sold for commercial purposes and used in marketing, the neighborhood type names are not necessarily sufficiently descriptive for use in academic research (Harris et al. 2005). Therefore, in Table 4.2, we show statistics from the national census for the six prefectures for all the neighborhoods in each neighborhood type. In general, the statistics were in line with those for the Kansai metropolitan area. In addition, for the benefit of public officials in charge of vacant housing policy, in this study, we used the existing geodemographic data already described because they have been developed to be simple to use and can be put to multiple uses.

Metropolitan elites

Executives in exclusive residential districts

Affluent generations in urban fringe

Young families in the suburbs

New graduates in large cities

Students around campus

Young generation at the center of provincial cities

Renting families in provincial cities

Workers in industrial cities

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

Neighborhood type

4,135

1,774

8,104

757

3,454

9,716

724

9,710

106

Number of resales of condominiums

10,745

16,711

18,109

18,301

18,961

18,062

6,953

17,134

28,032

Average selling price (thousand yen)

Table 4.1 Summary statistics of resale condominiums by neighborhood type

154.0

237.4

289.6

277.8

284.3

234.1

101.6

224.6

364.5

Average square unit price (thousand yen/m2 ) 44.5 55.0

70.6 52.2 52.3 57.8 51.2

58.6 59.4

−4.08 −4.20

−5.43 −3.59 −3.52 −3.18 −3.72

−3.10 −4.10

(continued)

Average time-on-market (days)

Average list-to-sale discount rate (%)

50 Y. Kamimura et al.

Dual incomes in provincial cities

Elderly in depopulated areas

Aging districts

Low incomes in large cities

Non-classification

K

L

M

N

U

48,181

81

7,623

1,537

261

184

15

Number of resales of condominiums

16,252

33,708

13,356

14,700

16,402

7,617

12,172

Average selling price (thousand yen)

230.3

436.2

196.4

201.1

246.3

110.3

181.2

Average square unit price (thousand yen/m2 )

Note Neighborhood type by “Mosaic Group” of Experian Mosaic Japan 2010 (Experian Japan Co., Ltd.)

Kansai metropolitan area

Families in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries

J

Neighborhood type

Table 4.1 (continued) Average time-on-market (days) 42.6

64.9 64.8 58.6 53.3 53.1 54.3

Average list-to-sale discount rate (%) −4.16

−4.27 −4.71 −4.52 −4.40 −2.90 −3.94

4 Geodemographic Characteristics of Vacant Houses in the Resale … 51

52

Y. Kamimura et al.

Kyoto Prefecture Shiga Prefecture

Hyogo Prefecture Kyoto Railway lines

Kobe Osaka Osaka Prefecture Wakayama Prefecture

Nara Prefecture

Kansai metropolitan area

(A) Metropolitan Elites

(C) Affluent Generations in Urban Fringe

(B) Executives in Exclusive Residential Districts

(D) Young Families in the Suburbs

Fig. 4.2 Distribution of sales agreement data by neighborhood type. Note Neighborhood types by “Mosaic Group.” The dot shows the distribution of sales agreement data of resale condominiums

4 Geodemographic Characteristics of Vacant Houses in the Resale …

(E) New Graduates in Large Cities

(F) Students Around Campus

(G) Young Generation at the Centre of Provincial Cities

(H) Renting Families in Provincial Cities

(I) Workers in Industrial Cities

Fig. 4.2 (continued)

53

(J) Families in Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries

54

Y. Kamimura et al.

(K) Dual Incomes in Provincial Cities

(M) Ageing Districts

(L) Elderly in Depopulated Areas

(N) Low Incomes in Large Cities

Fig. 4.2 (continued)

4.3 Modeling Sale Price, List-to-Sale Discount Rate and Time-on-Market 4.3.1 Multilevel Modeling Previous studies of factors affecting real estate pricing have frequently used hedonic pricing models to estimate a quality-adjusted price depending on the property’s building characteristics and factors related to location (Shimizu 2004). In addition, the balance between supply and demand in the local real estate market, which affects the volume of vacant housing stock, can be characterized by list-to-sale discount rate and time-on-market. Both are considered important housing market indicators, and they are known to mutually affect sale price (Knight 2002; Khezr 2015). In this study, based on the condominium sales data and geodemographic data already described, we modeled sale price, list-to-sale discount rate, and time-on-market for different neighborhood types using multilevel modeling, with property attributes and location-related factors as the explanatory variables. Although sale price, sale-to-list ratio, and time-on-market are simultaneously determined rather than unidirectionally

4 Geodemographic Characteristics of Vacant Houses in the Resale …

55

related (Anglin et al. 2003; Dubé and Legros 2016; Khezr 2015), in this study, we first estimated the sale price and then took that into consideration when estimated the other two factors. Specifically, we focused on the effect of geodemographic neighborhood type on these three response variables using multilevel modeling; property level used the property attributes and neighborhood level used the geodemographic neighborhood type. Because the geodemographic data were organized by neighborhood type, they did not reflect the internal heterogeneity within neighborhoods. But by considering the structure of our data hierarchically using multilevel modeling, we were able to explore simultaneously but separately the relationship of each property and the relationship of the neighborhood with the response variables. Integrating geodemographic neighborhood types into a multilevel modeling framework has been proposed, in particular, by Harris et al. (2007), Harris and Feng (2016). This approach differs from the usual regression model in that by using a random intercept model that can change the intercept depending on the geodemographic neighborhood type, one can determine whether there are statistically significant differences which cannot be explained by property attributes alone in the response variables due to the relevant neighborhood type. Whereas using a dummy variable for neighborhood type in a regression analysis would only allow significant differences to be determined in comparison with a reference neighborhood type, in a multilevel model, change in the intercept for different neighborhood types can be captured and, as will be later shown in Fig. 4.3, one can also graph the residual variation by neighborhood type. The models use the following estimates: yi = β0 j +



βm xmi j + ei j (property level)

m

β0 j = γ00 + r0 j (neighborhood level) The formula above denotes response variables yi , for property i, in neighborhood type j with mth explanatory variable x mij mth and regression coefficient β m , eij is a property level error term, γ 00 is the overall intercept, and r 0j is the error term (residual) that accounts for residual variance at the neighborhood level. Estimates from the three models for sale price, list-to-sale discount rate, and time-on-market will be discussed in Sect. 4.4.

4.3.2 Variables The variables used for the analysis and their descriptive statistics are shown in Table 4.3.5 Regarding the response variable average sale price was ¥16,252,000; 5 Logarithmic

transformation is used to calculate the sale price, time-on-market, square footage, property age, number of stories in the building, number of stories in the location, maintenance expenses, repair expenses, time taken to walk to the nearest station, and time taken to reach the

Metropolitan elites

Executives in exclusive residential districts

Affluent generations in urban fringe

Young families in the suburbs

New graduates in large cities

Students around campus

A

B

C

D

E

F

Neighborhood type

34 (36)

30 (33)

27 (27)

21 (21)

25 (26)

27 (32)

16 (17)

20 (19)

13 (15)

28 (27)

20 (21)

22 (19)

36 (32)

46 (43)

72 (68)

71 (65)

67 (64)

50 (42)

60 (62)

48 (51)

23 (24)

19 (17)

27 (29)

45 (52)

One person (%)

Nuclear families (%)

20–39 years old (%)

Over 65 years old (%)

Household type

Age-specific population

37 (33)

49 (41)

74 (68)

89 (87)

72 (67)

63 (46)

Privately owned housing (%)

2 (2)

2 (3)

3 (3)

1 (1)

3 (3)

3 (3)

Public housing (%)

57 (60)

44 (48)

19 (23)

9 (9)

22 (25)

27 (44)

Privately rented housing (%)

Residence and tenure of dwelling

Table 4.2 Residential characteristics by neighborhood type in the Kansai Metropolitan Area

24 (31)

24 (27)

28 (50)

71 (90)

35 (48)

25 (25)

Detached house (%)

74 (67)

72 (71)

70 (48)

25 (8)

62 (49)

72 (73)

Apartment house (%)

Type of building

44 (41)

46 (48)

47 (43)

43 (36)

49 (47)

60 (59)

Whitecollar workers (%)

Occupation

20 (22)

21 (21)

22 (27)

27 (35)

19 (22)

11 (11)

Bluecollar workers (%)

40 (44)

31 (31)

29 (28)

16 (15)

25 (25)

37 (34)

– (351)

– (424)

– (440)

– (457)

– (482)

– (526)

Mean household yearly income (ten thousand yen)

Income

(continued)

Under five years (%)

Duration of residence

56 Y. Kamimura et al.

Young generation at the center of provincial cities

Renting families in provincial cities

Workers in industrial cities

Families in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries

Dual incomes in provincial cities

G

H

I

J

K

Neighborhood type

25 (23)

17 (17)

25 (27)

31 (32)

33 (36)

22 (24)

36 (33)

19 (18)

14 (14)

19 (17)

65 (61)

56 (50)

68 (64)

60 (56)

37 (34)

24 (24)

25 (18)

24 (25)

34 (37)

58 (60)

One person (%)

Nuclear families (%)

20–39 years old (%)

Over 65 years old (%)

Household type

Age-specific population

Table 4.2 (continued)

68 (69)

82 (92)

74 (66)

52 (42)

36 (29)

Privately owned housing (%)

6 (5)

5 (2)

3 (2)

5 (3)

4 (4)

Public housing (%)

23 (22)

9 (4)

20 (27)

39 (46)

56 (58)

Privately rented housing (%)

Residence and tenure of dwelling

63 (75)

84 (96)

54 (65)

28 (39)

16 (18)

Detached house (%)

33 (22)

11 (3)

42 (32)

68 (59)

80 (79)

Apartment house (%)

Type of building

34 (34)

36 (26)

37 (36)

40 (39)

43 (42)

Whitecollar workers (%)

Occupation

35 (35)

31 (34)

33 (36)

29 (31)

22 (22)

Bluecollar workers (%)

21 (22)

10 (10)

22 (25)

36 (38)

35 (41)

– (372)

– (395)

– (411)

– (370)

– (350)

Mean household yearly income (ten thousand yen)

Income

(continued)

Under five years (%)

Duration of residence

4 Geodemographic Characteristics of Vacant Houses in the Resale … 57

Aging districts

Low incomes in large cities

M

N

23 (25)

23 (24)

16 (16)

26 (31)

26 (25)

43 (37)

58 (63)

59 (55)

49 (56)

36 (42)

34 (36)

43 (31)

One person (%)

Nuclear families (%)

20–39 years old (%)

Over 65 years old (%)

Household type

Age-specific population

50 (43)

51 (49)

69 (74)

Privately owned housing (%)

24 (41)

25 (15)

3 (7)

Public housing (%)

23 (23)

21 (31)

23 (14)

Privately rented housing (%)

Residence and tenure of dwelling

Notes The number is the summary value of the main variable by the 2010 national census in study area ( ) shows the overall number in Japan according to the “Experian Mosaic Japan 2010” Number of resales of condominiums in A, J, K, and L is less than 500 (see Table 4.1)

Elderly in depopulated areas

L

Neighborhood type

Table 4.2 (continued)

25 (30)

35 (47)

47 (80)

Detached house (%)

68 (73)

61 (50)

48 (14)

Apartment house (%)

Type of building

37 (37)

39 (38)

33 (30)

Whitecollar workers (%)

Occupation

31 (39)

29 (28)

24 (31)

Bluecollar workers (%)

23 (26)

25 (27)

35 (19)

Under five years (%)

Duration of residence

– (389)

– (363)

– (342)

Mean household yearly income (ten thousand yen)

Income

58 Y. Kamimura et al.

4 Geodemographic Characteristics of Vacant Houses in the Resale …

59

Fig. 4.3 Differences in the residual between demographic neighborhood types (Mosaic Group). Note The bar is 95% confidence interval

for the average listing price, it was ¥16,829,000, which was an average list-to-sale discount rate of negative 3.9%. Average time-on-market was 54.3 days, which was within the three-month expiration period for listing agreements in Japan. In other words, properties generally sold within about a month and a half. It should be noted that, following Suzuki and Asami (2017), we eliminated cases from the sample for which the time-on-market exceeded two years (730 days) as outliers. There were three categories of explanatory variables at the property level: variables related to building characteristics, such as square footage and property age; variables related to location, such as time to walk to the nearest railway station and time to get to the closest city center; and variables related to the market condition, such as the annual quarter during the study period in which the sale took place and transaction arrangement type.6 As to the building characteristics, the average square footage was 69.2 m2 , indicating that most of the condominiums were the standard “family type.” nearest city center in Tables 4.4, 4.5 and 4.6. This is because these variables are skewed and are not normally distributed. 6 There are five different types of arrangements when a real estate broker handles the sale of a property. They can be the seller, the proxy agent, or they can have an agreement with the seller: either an exclusive selling agreement, a non-exclusive agreement that also allows the seller to find a buyer themselves, or an “ordinary” selling agreement that allows the seller to use other brokers or find a buyer themselves. For details (in Japanese), refer to the Kinki REINS website at http://www. kinkireins.or.jp/baikai/ (last visited on June 18, 2018).

60

Y. Kamimura et al.

Table 4.3 Descriptive statistics Variables

Mean

Standard deviation

Minimum

Maximum

Listing price (ten thousand yen)

1,682.9

1,100.314

60

33,000

1,625.2

1,068.674

50

30,000

−0.907

1

1

729

Response variables Sale price (ten thousand yen) List-to-sale discount rate (%)

−0.039

Time-on-market (days)

54.3

0.056 62.939

Explanatory variables related to building characteristics Square footage (m2 )

69.2

17.313

10.2

274.5

Property age (years)

22.8

11.239

1.0

55.3

Number of stories of building (floor)

10.4

6.192

2

54

Number of stories of location (floor)

5.7

4.553

1

51

Corner room dummy

0.15

0.357

0

1

Balcony facing dummy (reference: None)

0.07

0.263

0

1

North

0.02

0.141

0

1

Northeast

0.01

0.114

0

1

East

0.14

0.343

0

1

Southeast

0.12

0.323

0

1

South

0.42

0.494

0

1

Southwest

0.10

0.307

0

1

West

0.10

0.303

0

1

0.101

0

1

Maintenance expense (yen per month)

Northwest

9,343.2

6,666.962

0

190,700

Repairing expense (yen per month)

5,959.0

5,181.916

0

123,600

0.08

0.268

0

1

2 rooms

0.19

0.395

0

1

3 rooms

0.59

0.491

0

1

4 rooms

0.13

0.339

0

1

5 rooms

0.00

0.057

0

1

6 rooms

0.00

0.011

0

1

7 rooms

0.00

0.005

0

1

Number of rooms dummy (reference: 1 room)

0.01

(continued)

4 Geodemographic Characteristics of Vacant Houses in the Resale …

61

Table 4.3 (continued) Variables

Minimum

Maximum

0.29

0.454

0

1

Empty

0.39

0.487

0

1

Full

0.31

0.463

0

1

Empty in neighborhood

0.01

0.097

0

1

8.5

5.461

1

136

32.4

16.380

1.6

278.2

On-site parking dummy (reference: None)

Mean

Standard deviation

Explanatory variables related to location Time to walk to the nearest station (min) Time to the nearest city center (min) Railway lines dummy (reference: Osaka city)

0.23

0.422

0

1

Hankyu-Kobe, JR-Kobe, Hanshin lines

0.25

0.431

0

1

Hankyu-Takarazuka, JR-Takarazuka, Hankyu-Senri lines

0.11

0.308

0

1

Hankyu-Kyoto, JR-Kyoto lines

0.11

0.311

0

1

Keihan-Honsen, JR-Katamachi lines

0.13

0.333

0

1

Kintestu-Nara, Osaka, JR-Kansai lines

0.01

0.075

0

1

Nankai-Koya, Kintestu-Minamiosaka lines

0.03

0.166

0

1

Nankai-Honsen, JR-Hanwa lines

0.05

0.227

0

1

0.09

0.288

0

1

0.12

0.326

0

1

0.01

0.071

0

1

Exclusive selling agreement

0.32

0.465

0

1

Non-exclusive selling agreement

0.41

0.492

0

1

“Ordinary” selling agreement

0.15

0.357

0

1

Other lines

Explanatory variables related to market condition Brokering arrangements dummy (reference: Seller) Proxy

Neighborhood types (see Table 4.1) N = 48,181 Note Quarters dummy (reference: 2010Q1) is not shown in this table due to limitations of space

62

Y. Kamimura et al.

The average property age was 22.8 years, and the condominiums were, on average, on the “10.4th” floor. Given that there are differences in the marketability of different types of unit, we set up dummy variables for the direction the balcony faced (eight directions) and for whether the unit was a corner apartment. In addition, we set up dummy variables for the number of rooms (1–7) and whether the apartment complex had on-site parking available. As to location-related factors, when time to walk to the nearest station included bus service, the length of the bus ride was added to the time it took to walk from the nearest bus stop to the station. For time to the nearest city center, we used the time by train to the nearest city center (i.e., Honmachi Station in central Osaka, Karasumaoike Station in central Kyoto, or Sannomiya Station in central Kobe) (Ehara 2016). Regarding this point, the Kansai metropolitan area has developed around the three major cities of Osaka, Kyoto, and Kobe,7 so commutes to each for work or school may partially overlap. However, for convenience, we assessed the accessibility to the nearest of these stations representative of the three city centers. Moreover, taking into consideration that the marketability of existing condominiums differs by which railway line is nearest, even within areas the same distance from a city center,8 we set up a dummy variable for codes to indicate which of the nine railway lines the condominium was on (Tables 4.4, 4.5 and 4.6). As to the market condition, we divided the six years from 2010 to 2015 into quarters and set up a dummy variable using the first quarter of 2010 as the reference. As shown in Fig. 4.1, in the condominium resale market during this period, sale prices were stable for the three years starting in 2010; they began to rise starting in 2013.9 As a result, we controlled for the effects of this change in the market condition. We also set up a dummy variable to control for the effects of the different brokering arrangements, using the broker as the actual seller as the reference value.

7 The

2011 report on Urban Planning Research for the Kansai Metropolitan Area (in Japanese) (Kansai Economic Federation 2011) suggested that the Kansai metropolitan area, in which Osaka, Kyoto, and Kobe each have populations of more than 1 million, is a rare global instance of a multinuclear regional structure having three major cities along a single axis. 8 ANOVAs showed significant differences for condominium resale price, price per square meter, and average square footage (m2 ) for the nine values of the dummy variable representing the areas along different railway lines as shown in Table 4.4, confirming that there were differences in character between properties sold along the different lines. 9 Since 2013, sale prices have been rising due to the expansion of demand for existing condominiums, a result of the continued low-interest rates that have been part of the large-scale monetary easing by the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan.

4 Geodemographic Characteristics of Vacant Houses in the Resale …

63

Table 4.4 Model estimates of the sale price Explanatory variables

Coefficient

Std. error

t value

4.321

0.052

82.362

***

167.146

***

Fixed effect Constant

Explanatory variables related to building characteristics Square footage

1.241

0.007

Property age

−0.438

0.003

−173.292

***

Number of stories of building

0.052

0.004

13.429

***

Number of stories of location

0.018

0.002

7.685

***

Corner room dummy

0.043

0.004

10.141

***

Balcony facing dummy

Yes

Maintenance expense

−0.003

0.001

−4.287

***

Repairing expense

0.009

0.000

24.510

***

Number of rooms dummy

Yes ***

On-site parking dummy Empty

0.014

0.004

3.720

Full

−0.010

0.004

−2.762

**

Empty in neighborhood

−0.084

0.015

−5.690

***

Explanatory variables related to location Time to walk to the nearest station

−0.094

0.002

−43.565

***

Time to the nearest city center

−0.289

0.004

−77.066

***

Hankyu-Kobe, JR-Kobe, Hanshin lines

−0.073

0.005

−15.815

***

Hankyu-Takarazuka, JR-Takarazuka, Hankyu-Senri lines

0.072

0.006

11.796

***

Hankyu-Kyoto, JR-Kyoto lines

0.066

0.006

11.807

***

Keihan-Honsen, JR-Katamachi lines

−0.157

0.006

−27.719

***

Kintestu-Nara, Osaka, JR-Kansai lines

−0.284

0.019

−14.881

***

Nankai-Koya, Kintestu-Minamiosaka lines

−0.189

0.010

−19.914

***

Nankai-Honsen, JR-Hanwa lines

−0.164

0.008

−21.736

***

Other lines

−0.266

0.007

−40.879

***

Railway lines dummy (reference: Osaka city)

(continued)

64

Y. Kamimura et al.

Table 4.4 (continued) Std. dev.

Variance

0.156

0.024

Random effect Constant Pseudo-R2

0.770

N (neighborhood level)

15

N (property level)

48,181

Note ***, ** and * indicate significance at the 0.1, 1, and 5% levels, respectively

4.4 Identifying Community Structures Prone to Having Vacant Housing Based on Neighborhood Type 4.4.1 Model Estimates Table 4.4 shows the model estimates of the sale price (logarithmic values).10 When the coefficient for an explanatory variable was significant and positive (negative), that variable increased (decreased) the sale price. That the model had sufficient explanatory power was confirmed by a pseudo-coefficient of determination (R2 ) of 0.770,11 and the signs of the coefficients indicated that many of the results agreed with those of previous studies regarding factors underlying real estate pricing (Shimizu 2004; Suzuki and Asami 2017). In particular, it is safe to say that the principal factors determining sale price were those significant variables that had large t-values: square footage, property age, walking time to the nearest station, and time to the nearest city center. If all other factors were the same, being on a higher floor, being a corner apartment, and having on-site parking increased a condominium’s sale price. Railway line was also a significant factor, as all lines showed significant differences to the reference value, which was “being located within the city of Osaka,” so we controlled for differences in marketability by line. We also calculate the markup ratio, which is the listing price when the property was put on the market over expected sale prices estimated from the pricing model. This was later used as an explanatory variable in the model’s estimate of list-to-sale discount rate and time-on-market. The intercept residuals by geodemographic neighborhood type listed as random effects in Table 4.4 were graphed and will be discussed in detail in the next section. Table 4.5 shows the model estimates of the list-to-sale discount rate. The list-tosale discount rate indicates how much the sale price differed from the list price as a percentage. If an estimated value was positive, that variable decreased the discount (indicating high demand); if it was negative, that variable increased the discount. 10 The variance inflation factors (VIFs) for all the explanatory variables were 5 or less, suggesting there was no need to be concerned about multicollinearity. 11 Here, the coefficient of determination showed how much of the variance in the response variable was accounted for by the fixed effect variables alone.

4 Geodemographic Characteristics of Vacant Houses in the Resale …

65

Table 4.5 Model estimates of the list-to-sale discount rate Explanatory variables

Coefficient

Std. error

t value

−0.030

0.006

−4.938

***

7.896

***

Fixed effect Constant

Explanatory variables related to building characteristics Square footage

0.010

0.001

Property age

−0.011

0.000

−24.550

***

Number of stories of building

0.005

0.001

7.464

***

Number of stories of location

0.000

0.000

−1.003

Corner room dummy

0.000

0.001

0.111

Balcony facing dummy

Yes

Maintenance expense

−0.001

0.000

−6.649

***

Repairing expense

0.001

0.000

6.408

***

Number of rooms dummy

Yes −0.474

On-site parking dummy Empty

0.000

0.001

Full

−0.002

0.001

−3.663

Empty in neighborhood

0.005

0.003

1.756

***

Explanatory variables related to location Time to walk to the nearest station

−0.002

0.000

−6.022

***

Time to the nearest city center

−0.004

0.001

−6.467

***

Hankyu-Kobe, JR-Kobe, Hanshin lines

−0.008

0.001

−9.429

***

Hankyu-Takarazuka, JR-Takarazuka, Hankyu-Senri lines

0.000

0.001

−0.471

Hankyu-Kyoto, JR-Kyoto lines

0.005

0.001

4.868

Keihan-Honsen, JR-Katamachi lines

−0.002

0.001

−1.884

Kintestu-Nara, Osaka, JR-Kansai lines

−0.002

0.003

−0.569

Nankai-Koya, Kintestu-Minamiosaka lines

−0.008

0.002

−5.066

***

Nankai-Honsen, JR-Hanwa lines

−0.009

0.001

−6.543

***

Other lines

0.000

0.001

−0.363

0.001

22.210

Railway lines dummy (reference: Osaka city)

***

Explanatory variables related to market condition Quarters dummy

Yes

Brokering arrangements dummy

Yes

Markup ratio

0.018

*** (continued)

66

Y. Kamimura et al.

Table 4.5 (continued) Std. dev.

Variance

0.003

0.000

Random effect Constant Pseudo-R2

0.080

N (neighborhood level)

15

N (property level)

48,181

Note ***, ** and * indicate significance at the 0.1, 1, and 5% levels, respectively

Variables with large t-values were square footage and being located on a higher floor. As these values increased, the discount decreased. On the other hand, the discount increased with property age or a lack of available on-site parking, as well as when times to get to the nearest train station or to the nearest city center were longer. When the markup ratio was set larger, the discount decreased. As a previous study by McGreal et al. (2009), when listing prices are set high, sale prices tend to increase. Table 4.6 shows the model estimates of time-on-market (logarithmic values). In this model, if the estimated value was positive, that variable increased time-onmarket (indicating little demand); if it was negative, the variable decreased time-onmarket. Variables with large t-values were being located on a higher floor, being a corner apartment, and having a balcony facing south, all of which shortened timeon-market. In contrast, time-on-market increased when there was no on-site parking and when time to walk to the nearest station was longer. As to selling arrangements, which is not presented in Table 4.6, compared to the broker being the seller, being the intermediary between two individuals increased the discount and shortened the timeon-market. This suggests that to avoid having a sale drag on, intermediaries tended to offer discounts to move the sale more quickly. While the list-to-sale discount decreased and time-on-market shortened with larger markup ratios, it could be that properties were given high markups over the theoretical price when high demand made it possible to sell quickly, so the time-on-market was shorter. Other studies have also suggested that the relationship between price and time-on-market is not fixed but, rather, differs depending on the situation (Sirmans et al. 2010; He et al. 2017). Our result is consistent with the findings of Dubé and Legros (2016), who showed that while properties with good-quality amenities can sell at a high price without being on the market for long, properties without such amenities can languish on the market even at a low price. It should be noted that the pseudo-R2 s for the models for list-to-sale discount rate and time-on-market were 0.080 and 0.025, respectively, which indicated they had low explanatory power, even having taken the market condition into consideration. Compared to estimating the sale price, the accuracy of estimates for time-on-market, which is determined as the result of a transactional process in which the various

4 Geodemographic Characteristics of Vacant Houses in the Resale …

67

Table 4.6 Model estimates of time-on-market Explanatory variables

Coefficient

Std. error

t value

3.653

0.130

28.038

***

3.447

***

Fixed effect Constant

Explanatory variables related to building characteristics Square footage

0.096

0.028

Property age

−0.015

0.009

−1.560

Number of stories of building

−0.081

0.015

−5.537

Number of stories of location

−0.002

0.009

−0.285

Corner room dummy

−0.068

0.016

−4.323

Balcony facing dummy

Yes

Maintenance expense

−0.001

0.003

−0.313

Repairing expense

−0.024

0.003

−9.523

***

Number of rooms dummy

Yes **

*** ***

On-site parking dummy Empty

0.037

0.014

2.672

Full

0.038

0.014

2.630

**

Empty in neighborhood

0.351

0.056

6.312

*** ***

Explanatory variables related to location Time to walk to the nearest station

0.078

0.008

9.701

Time to the nearest city center

0.003

0.014

0.198

Hankyu-Kobe, JR-Kobe, Hanshin lines

0.022

0.017

1.272

Hankyu-Takarazuka, JR-Takarazuka, Hankyu-Senri lines

0.011

0.023

0.502

Hankyu-Kyoto, JR-Kyoto lines

0.016

0.021

0.751

Keihan-Honsen, JR-Katamachi lines

−0.056

0.021

−2.655

Kintestu-Nara, Osaka, JR-Kansai lines

−0.023

0.071

−0.320

Nankai-Koya, Kintestu-Minamiosaka lines

0.059

0.036

1.673

Nankai-Honsen, JR-Hanwa lines

−0.012

0.028

−0.437

Other lines

0.082

0.024

3.397

***

0.018

−7.528

***

Railway lines dummy (reference: Osaka city)

**

Explanatory variables related to market condition Quarters dummy

Yes

Brokering arrangements dummy

Yes

Markup ratio

−0.132

(continued)

68

Y. Kamimura et al.

Table 4.6 (continued) Std. dev.

Variance

0.040

0.002

Random effect Constant Pseudo-R2

0.025

N (neighborhood level)

15

N (property level)

48,181

Note ***, ** and * indicate significance at the 0.1, 1, and 5% levels, respectively

conflicting intentions of the seller and the buyer play out, and therefore there are a lot of unobserved elements, is known to be low (Yavas and Yang 1995).

4.4.2 The Prevalence of Vacant Housing Stock by Neighborhood Type Figure 4.3 shows comparisons of the differences of the residual between demographic neighborhood types in order from lowest to highest for the estimates from the three multilevel models. Even after controlling for building characteristics and location-related factors, significant differences were found between neighborhood types. The residuals from the sale price and list-to-sale discount rate models showed the strength/weakness of condominium supply and demand by neighborhood type, and those from the time-on-market model showed which neighborhoods may tend to generate vacant housing stock. Neighborhood types with high residuals for the sale price model (the price level for existing condominiums) were types A, F, E, and B. These types of neighborhoods are affluent and very urbanized. The residual for neighborhood type D was also relatively high, and this type of neighborhood is distinguished by its young, highincome suburban families (Table 4.2). On the other hand, neighborhoods found to have low residuals were types C, K, L, which are located relatively far from a city center. However, the model controlled for time to the nearest city center, suggesting that there were effects from other suburban or rural characteristics that could not be explained simply by proximity to a city. The residual for type I, which has a high proportion of blue-collar workers, was also relatively low. Along with types K and L, it can be seen that these neighborhoods were poorer and attending condominium prices were lower. From the list-to-sale discount rate model, it can be seen that, as was the case for the sale price model, higher-priced neighborhood types F, D, and B in affluent areas such as the central area of Osaka, the Hokusetsu area, and the Hanshin area had significant positive residuals, so the list-to-sale discounts were smaller, and demand for existing condominiums was strong. Type H, also had a significant positive resid-

4 Geodemographic Characteristics of Vacant Houses in the Resale …

69

ual, so discounts were smaller. On the other hand, of the lower-priced neighborhood types, type C neighborhoods outside the cities of Osaka, Kobe, and Kyoto which had strong suburban and rural characteristics had a significantly negative residual, so discounts were larger and demand was weak. Neighborhood type M, in cities such as Wakayama and Himeji, and neighborhood type N, such as in the inner cities of Osaka, Kobe, and Kyoto, had significant negative residuals, so demand was also weak. From the time-on-market model, neighborhood types D, B, A, and E, where demand was strong, had negative residuals trending toward significance. In these high-priced areas, time-on-market were short. Neighborhood type N, which was distinguished by low incomes and weak demand, also had a significant negative residual: time-on-market were shorter, but there may have been a tendency for sellers to heavily discount the list price in order to accelerate sales. On the other hand, neighborhood type C, which had weak demand, and neighborhood type M, which had an aging population, tended to have long time-on-market, showing it was difficult to finalize a sale even with larger than average discounts on the list price. Type H, which was distinguished by families who rented; type I, which had a high percentage of blue-collar workers; and type K neighborhoods found in provincial cities with low condominium prices also tended to have long time-on-market. In these types of neighborhoods, results suggested that it was difficult to finalize a sale because sellers either refused to discount the price or offered only small discounts.

4.5 Conclusion In conclusion, in neighborhood types C, H, I, M, and K, condominiums for resale tended to have longer than average time-on-market, suggesting they were at greater risk of having stocks of vacant housing. Although condominium prices in all of these neighborhood types were low, estimated discounts from the list-to-sale discount model indicated that there were differences in demand, suggesting that different strategies to deal with stocks of vacant condominiums are needed for different contexts (Table 4.7). While discounts to list prices were smaller than average in neighborhood types H, I, and K, there was a certain amount of demand, particularly in neighborhood types H and I; in areas such as the cities of Neyagawa, Sakai, and Amagasaki near Osaka and in suburban residential areas of Kobe. In these areas, it should be possible to stimulate demand by offering larger discounts and adjusting listing prices. On the other hand, in neighborhood types C and M, discounts were already large, so reducing stocks of vacant housing while following the usual business practice of selling the property “as is”12 would be difficult. In particular, many type M neighborhoods are found in built-up areas in the suburbs and in inner cities 12 “As is sales” are the usual business practice in the Japanese real estate market. Buyer and seller agreements are written to the effect that the property is delivered to the buyer “as is,” without stipulations for inspections, repairs, remodeling, etc.

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Y. Kamimura et al.

Table 4.7 Neighborhood types with long time-on-market Neighborhood type

Rank by residuals for the sale price model

Rank by residuals for the list-to-sale discount rate model

Rank by residuals for the time-onmarket model

The three districts with the longest average time-on-market

C

14 (Lowest) (=weakest demand)

13

1 (Longest)

Kitakomatsu, Otsu city, Shiga Nakamura, Inami town, Hyogo Tobaotsu, Yasu city, Shiga

H

8

2

2

Kusunekitamachi, Neyagawa city, Osaka 1, Kamisakabe, Amagasaki city, Hyogo 7, Otorihigashimachi, Nishi ward, Sakai city, Osaka

I

11

7

3

1, Shimizugaoka, Tarumi ward, Kobe city, Hyogo 8, Nishimaiko, Tarumi ward, Kobe city, Hyogo Nikaidokaminosyocho, Tenri city, Nara

M

10

14 (Lowest)

4

3, Chidorigaoka, Tarumi ward, Kobe city, Hyogo 3, Hamaderasuwanomorichonishi, Nishi ward, Sakai city, Osaka 1, Itakano, Higashiyodogawa ward, Osaka city, Osaka

K

13

4

5

2, Tarui, Sennan city, Osaka Hoshiya, Wakayama city, Wakayama Kouyaguchichofushihara, Hashimoto city, Wakayama

Notes Neighborhood type by “Mosaic Group” of Experian Mosaic Japan 2010 (Experian Japan Co., Ltd.) Rank by residuals is based on 14 types except for type U (Non-classification)

where the population is aging. For these neighborhoods, demand to buy or rent would need to be stimulated both within and outside these areas by investing in remodeling and renovation. This study showed, through the use of models controlling for building characteristics, location-related factors, and the market condition, that statistically significant

4 Geodemographic Characteristics of Vacant Houses in the Resale …

71

differences exist between types of neighborhoods in their risk of having a stock of vacant condominiums that cannot be sufficiently explained by those factors. As discussed, neighborhoods in which condominiums for resale have long time-on-market come in many forms, so controlling the prevalence of vacant housing stock is not simply a question of increasing the amount of turnover and adjusting price levels alone. To prevent vacant housing stock from becoming dead stock, it is needed to find approaches that promise to be effective for a given community and neighborhood type. For example, in type C and M neighborhoods, where it would be difficult to prevent housing from becoming vacant without changing traditional selling practices, one potential solution may be raising awareness of the importance of remodeling, along with offering remodeling assistance. In this respect, geodemographic neighborhood types, which provide classifications for a variety of social environments, can be useful for selecting small areas for public policy targeting. As to future topics for research, to further verify the relationships between listing price, sale price, and time-on-market, a predictive model may need to be developed that can incorporate, in addition to the attributes of the property for sale and the characteristics of a neighborhood’s residents-based geodemographics, the conflicting intentions of both the seller and the buyer in an actual transaction. In addition, there may be a need a similar analysis of detached houses for resale; a comparison of the house market with condominiums examining differences in neighborhood characteristics, given the recent problem of houses that are vacant or abandoned with unknown owners. Such a study would need to be done in detail, block by block, using subdivided geodemographic classification.

References Anglin PM, Rutherford R, Springer TM (2003) The trade-off between the sell ing price of residential properties and time-on-the-market: the impact of price setting. J Real Estate Finance Econ 26(1):95–111 Dubé J, Legros D (2016) A spatiotemporal solution for the simultaneous sale price and time-onthe-market problem. Real Estate Econ 44(4):846–877 Ehara T (2016) Comparative study of the distance scale in urban areas: the case of the Kinki metropolitan area. Research Abstracts on Spatial Information Science CSIS DAYS 2016 Harris R, Feng Y (2016) Putting the geography into geodemographics: using multilevel modeling to improve neighborhood targeting: a case study of Asian pupils in London. J Mark Analytics 4(2–3):93–107 Harris R, Sleight P, Webber R (2005) Geodemographics, GIS, and neighborhood targeting. Wiley, London Harris R, Johnston R, Burgess S (2007) Neighborhoods, ethnicity, and school choice: developing a statistical framework for geodemographic analysis. Popul Res Policy Rev 26(5):553–579 He X, Lin Z, Liu Y, Seiler MJ (2017) Search benefit in housing markets: an inverted U-shaped price and TOM relation. Real Estate Econ (forthcoming). https://doi.org/10.1111/1540-6229.12221 Kansai Economic Federation (2011) Research of the city measure in the Kansai urban area, 3 Khezr P (2015) Time on the market and price change: the case of Sydney housing market. Appl Econ 47(5):485–498

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Knight JR (2002) Listing price, time-on-market, and ultimate selling price: causes and effects of listing price changes. Real Estate Econ 30(2):213–237 McGreal S, Adair A, Brown L, Webb J (2009) Pricing and time on the market for residential properties in a major UK city. J Real Estate Res 31(2):201–234 Ong SE, Koh YC (2000) Time-on-market and price trade-offs in high-rise housing submarkets. Urban Stud 37(11):2057–2071 Pryce G, Gibb K (2006) Submarket dynamics of time to sale. Real Estate Econ 34(3):377–415 Shimizu C (2004) Property Market Analysis. p 94–114 Singleton AD, Spielman SE (2014) The past, present, and future of geodemographic research in the United States and United Kingdom. Prof Geogr 66(4):558–567 Sirmans GS, MacDonald L, Macpherson DA (2010) A meta-analysis of selling price and time-on the-market. J Hous Res 19(2):139–152 Sugimoto S, Chosokabe M, Ogawa H (2016) Study on estimation of vacant dwelling rates of apartment house in a small district: a case study of Wakayama city. Rep City Plan Inst Jpn 14:383–386 Suzuki M, Asami Y (2017) The demand-supply relationship in the resale housing market: evidence from the outskirts of the Tokyo metropolitan area. J City Plan Inst Jpn 52(3):514–520 Uesugi M, Yano K (2018) A geodemographic analysis to assess variations in school performance based on educational achievement: a case study of Osaka city, Japan. Jpn J Human Geogr 70(2):253–271 Uesugi M, Hino K, Yano K (2018) Neighborhood analysis of theft using a geodemographic classification. E-journal GEO 13(1):11–23 Webber R, Burrow R (2018) The predictive postcode: the geodemographic classification of British society. SAGE Publications, London Yavas A, Yang S (1995) The strategic role of listing price in marketing real estate: theory and evidence. Real Estate Econ 23(3):347–368 Yui Y, Kubo T, Nishiyama H (2016) An Increase in problematic housing vacancies in Japanese cities: geographical strategies to make solution. Kokon-shoin, Tokyo

Chapter 5

The Decline in Price of Suburban Secondhand Housing in Hiroshima City Yoshimichi Yui

Abstract Due to the increasing and the aging of vacant houses, secondhand housing in suburban areas has caused a significant drop in prices. There are many arguments that the revitalization of secondhand housing market is an important measure against vacant houses and to make sustainable suburbs. However, the examination of transactions in secondhand houses does not show how much the distribution of secondhand housing contributes to solving the vacant house problem. Although revitalization of the secondhand housing market is vital as a vacant house countermeasure, in reality, detached secondhand housing is often traded for city-oriented residences. Women’s social advancement, shortening commuting time, and so on have caused this new trend. To decrease the number of vacant houses, it is necessary to promote renovation and offer low-priced rental housing to raise the value of vacant houses and to take measures to promote living in them. In the future, as the population ages, the number of vacant houses will increase as a result of death and the aged moving into welfare facilities. Eventually, some marginal settlements will exist in depopulated areas. To regenerate suburban housing estates affected by aging, it is essential that young people move in by activating the market of used houses. However, there are many problems with this solution. Keywords Secondhand housing · Housing estates · Housing price · Suburbs · Hiroshima City

5.1 Introduction 5.1.1 Background and Purpose Suburban houses are no longer “dream houses.” In the past, acquiring suburban housing was a goal for people, and ownership of a house was “a status symbol” of Y. Yui (B) Graduate School of Education, Hiroshima University, Hiroshima, Japan e-mail: [email protected] © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 T. Kubo and Y. Yui (eds.), The Rise in Vacant Housing in Post-growth Japan, Advances in Geographical and Environmental Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-7920-8_5

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Y. Yui

the middle or upper classes in Japan. However, suburban housing and its associated lifestyle have lost its appeal due to factors such as decreasing population in the era of declining birthrates and aging populations, people returning to the city center, the social advancement of women, and the supply of high-rise condominium houses in inner urban areas. After more than 30 years of development, the generation who purchased houses became aged and elderly; the population declined suddenly due to the independence of children’s growth, their employment, or marriage. Consequently, elderly couples and elderly living alone continue to live in suburbs (Nakazawa et al. 2008; Yui et al. 2014, 2016). Due to the repayment period of mortgages, houses supplied in suburban residential areas are mostly homes for nuclear families consisting of couples in their 30s and 40s and their children. Their houses’ layouts are almost the same as others’ and are biased toward homogeneous residents, and their communities are composed of homogeneous generations. In other words, the aging of the current suburban residential areas seems to have revealed the problem in housing development that monotonous housing supply was offered in large quantities over a short period. Due to the increasing and the aging of the vacant houses, secondhand housing in the suburban area has caused a significant drop in prices. There are many arguments that the revitalization of secondhand housing market is important in measures against vacant houses and to make sustainable suburbs (Yoneyama 2011, etc.), but examinations of the transactions of secondhand house distribution have not solved the vacant house problem (Kurahashi 2014). Therefore, as part of the effort to revitalize suburban residential areas, this research aims to promote the distribution of used houses and consider the current state of secondhand housing transactions in suburban housing estates in Hiroshima City to consider the reuse of vacant houses. It aims to clarify the problem of secondhand housing distribution as a suburban revitalization measure.

5.1.2 Method “The real estate transaction price information” (http://www.land.mlit.go.jp/ webland/) published in the “Land Information System” by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport has been used to analyze transaction prices from 2006 to 2015. Data of the transactions of secondhand houses (land and housing) has been annually sorted to create a database for each residential estate in the suburbs. It is necessary to consider that the real estate transaction price information does not cover all information traded because only the information declared by the vendor is posted. Also, it is important to note that so-called dead stock properties that have not been sold are not considered. The information on addresses stated in the “Land Information System” does not correspond to the detail address of the small-scale housing estates. It is impossible to obtain census data on small housing estates, so we analyzed only those housing estates where the data can be acquired.

5 The Decline in Price of Suburban Secondhand Housing …

75

5.2 Transition in Transaction Prices of Suburban Housing Estates There are many vacant houses and vacant lots distributed in housing estates (Yui et al. 2014; Kubo 2015). Most vacant lots were sold, but no houses were built on these lots. The reasons for this are that land purchasers planned to live at these locations eventually but were not ready to do so at retirement, or they purchased land for their children. However, their children did not move their residences. Many vacant lots have been continuing for various reasons such as purchasing for speculation purposes and lacking a willingness to live. Many of these vacant lands and vacant houses are not sold, and there are many difficult situations in future sales. Additionally, with the aging of residents, the number of vacant houses in housing estates has increased, and most of the vacant houses are the result of elderly residents who died or moved to elderly nursing homes. Although their children inherited their households, they never lived in them. Real estate prices in residential areas and land in suburban residential areas have rarely risen. Instead, they have fallen sharply, and the burden of housing maintenance costs and property tax continues. When homes are far from the city center, and far from suburban stations, the selling price of secondhand houses is remarkably low. According to interviews with real estate agents, it is quite difficult to find buyers even though houses in these areas are for sale. Using “the real estate transaction price information” of the “Land Information System,” the author analyzed 13 housing estates’ transaction prices of secondhand housing in 2015 in Hiroshima City. Furthermore, the author analyzed seven housing estates regarding the transition in prices of used houses from 2006 to 2015 (in Table 5.1). As shown in Fig. 5.1, looking at the transaction price of secondhand houses in housing estates during 2015, regarding the highest transaction price, the lowest trading price, and the average transaction price of the year, it is located away from the city center. In Saeki Ward, the Suginamidai estate, the highest transaction price was 12 million yen, and the minimum was 1.8 million yen. Likewise, even in Asakita Ward, the Asahigaoka estate, and the Itopia Fujinoki estate in Saeki Ward located far from the city center, transaction prices are both lower than the Inokuchidai estate in Nishi Ward, which is close to the city center. The distance from the city center shows that there is a substantial difference in the price of secondhand houses. Similarly, in housing estates which are far from the city center and are not convenient such as the Asahigaoka estate in Asakita Ward and the Itopia Fujinoki estate in Saeki Ward, the transaction price is lower than others. On the other hand, the Inokuchidai estate, which is near the city center, is one of the highest prices. In other words, a substantial difference in the prices of secondhand houses due to the distance from the city center is evident. The aging rate is 25.7% (2010), but since the population between 60 and 64 years old was 999 people, an aging rate of nearly 40% was inferred in 2015. Considering Asahigaoka estate in Asakita Ward, the Asa Town Agricultural Cooperative started construction in 1973 in the mountain area slightly less than 20 km

76

Y. Yui

from the city center. The commuting time to the city center is about one hour. The development area is 145 ha, and the planned number of houses is about 3000, but in the census of 2010, it was about 2600 households and about 7100 residents. The aging

Table 5.1 Outline of the housing estates studied Estate name

Establishment year

Area (ha)

Number of households

Population

Rate of elderly (%)

Asahigaoka

1976

145.8

3044

7183

30.0

Koyo New Town

C Block 1978

81.0

2093

5065

27.7

B Block 1981

37.6

1753

3839

21.7

A Block 1981

156.0

4072

9936

26.9

Bisyamondai

Stage 1, 1978

50.4

1329

3291

32.7

Stage 2, 1979

37.6

1050

2569

32.6

Stage 3, 1992

22.9

351

1127

8.8

Suginamidai

1982

44.0

889

2151

25.5

Itopia Fujinoki

1986

58.0

1793

4994

14.4

Misuzugaoka

Stage 1, 1981

113.2

3289

8132

28.3

Stage 2, 1986

28.9

756

2040

17.3

109.8

2898

6984

30.9

Satsukigaoka

1976

Source Created based on Hiroshima City (2018)

Fig. 5.1 Transaction price of used houses in Hiroshima. Source Created by 2015 Land Information System (2016)

5 The Decline in Price of Suburban Secondhand Housing …

77

rate is 25.7% (in 2010), but since the population of people aged 60–64 was around one thousand people, an aging rate of nearly 40% is inferred in 2015. According to the Hiroshima municipal government, the fixed price of the Asahigaoka estate has a maximum price of 27,100 yen/m2 and a lowest price of 13,800 yen. The lowest trading price was considerably cheaper than the line price, and it became clear that the highest trading price was more than twice as high as the road price. Considering the trading price of secondhand houses in the Asahigaoka estate, as shown in Table 5.2, the number of transactions is small, and the distribution of secondhand houses is not active. In the 1980s, newly built houses that sold mainly in the 30 million yen range were in the latter half of six million to 14 million yen when considering the average transaction price each year. Among them, although the property of a relatively new residence is traded at a price of 20 million yen or more with a large land area, the average transaction price is in the low ten million yen range. However, at the lowest trading price, there were also two years that fell below the five million yen level, which was 3.8 million yen in 2007 and 2.5 million yen in 2008. These included secondhand houses which were divided land. Properties whose price lowered remarkably were not auction or accident properties, which include murder or loneliness death, but vacant houses owners hoped to dispose of. Looking at the number of transactions from 2009 to 2015, as shown in Table 5.3, the number of traded properties is small, and the distribution of secondhand housing is stagnating. The price range was 12 million to 4.7 million yen, and the average transaction price was 4.13 million to 7 million yen. Also, the lowest trading price ranges from 1.8 million to 4.7 million yen, which shows that trading occurred at meager prices despite the low price of the transaction itself. Like the Asahigaoka estate and the Suginamidai estate, the Itopia Fujinoki estate developed at the foot slope away from the train station. The Itopia Fujinoki estate is one of the housing estates where the price has declined dramatically. Examining the average transaction prices of secondhand houses in the Itopia Fujinoki estate, these range from the low ten million to the 17 million yen, but the average unit price of trading properties is 51,000–86,000 yen (per m2 ). The disparity is small. According to the Hiroshima municipal government, the fixed price of the property tax of the Itopia Fujinoki estate is a maximum of 33,300 yen/m2 , and the lowest price is 23,800 yen. Compared with these amounts, in the secondhand housing transactions, there are many years in which the average of the transaction prices and the lowest trading price is much higher than the highest land price. Conversely, in the Misuzugaoka estate, the number of secondhand housing transactions is large, and the transaction price is in the range of 20 million to 40 million yen, which is characterized by the average of the transaction price over the last ten years exceeding 30 million yen. Such a difference in transaction price is due to the difference in the convenience of the two residential areas. There are several residential estates developed at the same time as the Itopia Fujinoki estate in the surrounding area. For example, the Misuzugaoka estate is located about 30 min by bus to the center of Hiroshima City and was developed by the national development agency, “Mitsui Fudosan Realty Co.,Ltd,” between 1981

6

6

9

7

11

3

9

5

6

6

68

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Total

2000

2300

2400

1900

2400

1400

3400

1300

1400

1200

2300

Average of maximum transaction price (10 thousand yen)

634

880

550

850

500

900

850

580

250

380

600

Average of minimum transaction price (10 thousand yen)

Source Created by 2015 Land Information System (2016)

Number of properties to be traded

Year

1136.5

1438

1175

1330

1094

1166

1436

994

687

795

1250

Average of transaction price (10 thousand yen)

Table 5.2 Transaction price of used houses in Asahigaoka estates (2006–2015)

8.64

13.5

12.6

5.9

5.5

6.7

14.2

7.4

8.2

5.7

6.7

Average of maximum sales unit price (10 thousand yen/m2 )

2.41

3.7

2.2

3.6

2.2

3.7

2.5

2.7

1.0

0.2

2.3

Average of minimum sales unit price (10 thousand yen/m2 )

5.03

8.0

5.8

4.6

4.0

4.9

5.8

5.2

4.5

3.2

4.3

Average unit price (10 thousand yen/m2 )

268.6

200

217

304

285

240

257

190

167

526

300

Average area of sales properties (m2 )

78 Y. Yui

3

9

5

6

6

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2300

2400

1900

2400

1400

3400

1300

1400

1200

2300

Average of maximum transaction price (10 thousand yen)

880

550

850

500

900

850

580

250

380

600

Average of minimum transaction price (10 thousand yen)

Source Created by 2015 Land Information System (2016)

7

9

2008

11

6

2007

2010

6

2006

2009

Number of properties to be traded

Year

12.6 13.5

1438

5.9

5.5

6.7

14.2

7.4

8.2

5.7

6.7

Average of maximum sales unit price (10 thousand yen/m2 )

1175

1330

1094

1166

1436

994

687

795

1250

Average of transaction price (10 thousand yen)

Table 5.3 Transaction price of used houses in Suginamidai estates (2006–2015)

3.7

2.2

3.6

2.2

3.7

2.5

2.7

1.0

0.2

2.3

Average of minimum sales unit price (10 thousand yen/m2 )

8.0

5.8

4.6

4.0

4.9

5.8

5.2

4.5

3.2

4.3

Average unit price (10 thousand yen/m2 )

200

217

304

285

240

257

190

167

526

300

Average area of sales properties (m2 )

5 The Decline in Price of Suburban Secondhand Housing … 79

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Y. Yui

and 1986. Its total area is 142 ha, and the total number of houses is about 4000, with a population of roughly 10,000 people. Misuzugaoka estate is divided into eastern, southern, western, and green districts. Elementary, junior high, and high schools opened in the developed area, and there are small shopping malls, post offices, and banks in the center. Life there is convenient. As can be seen in Table 5.4, the Misuzugaoka estate has a large number of secondhand housing transactions, and the transaction price is in the range of 20 million to 40 million yen. The average of the transaction price in the last ten years exceeds 30 million yen. That is why the housing prices are kept at a high level. According to documents of Hiroshima City, the fixed price of the property tax of the Misuzugaoka estate had a maximum price of 64,900 yen/m2 and a minimum price of 31,200 yen, but the actual transaction price often exceeds 200,000 yen. However, even at the Misuzugaoka estate, there are transactions at low prices such as two million or 7.5 million yen. Houses of deceased elderly owners with heirs or a parent’s house where distant children left the property vacant were sold. The Misuzugaoka estate is also experiencing a seriously aging population, but there are several reasons why secondhand housing prices can maintain higher prices compared to other housing estates. Having educational facilities from elementary to high school nearby meets the demands of young and child-rearing households. Furthermore, even after Mitsui Fudosan Realty Co.,Ltd. completed the development of the housing estate, they retained the local sales office as “Re: Club Misuzugaoka” of Mitsui Fudosan Realty Chugoku Realty Co.,Ltd. and are responsible for dealing in secondhand houses to support town planning. Additionally, community activities are prosperous, and there are also several groups that distribute lunch to elderly people and groups that created interchange spaces for the elderly using vacant houses, creating “the third place” of gathering spaces of various residents.

5.3 Transition in Transaction Prices of Secondhand Houses in Suburban Housing Estates As mentioned, I have examined the transaction prices of secondhand housing for each housing estate and will compare the trading situation of secondhand houses from 2006 to 2015 in Table 5.5. In housing estates at a favorable location, such as having a nearby station, high transaction prices are maintained overall. The number of properties to be traded is large, and used houses are actively distributed. Meanwhile, in housing estates where access to the city center is poor, the average transaction price is in the first half of the ten million yen range, and real estate prices fell considerably as a result. It is impossible to see the price crash due to the difference in location conditions. In other words, the transaction prices of secondhand houses in housing estates do not show large fluctuations as a whole, even if there are properties that have become extremely inexpensive, such as when disposing of those vacant houses affected by the aging of the population.

16

13

20

11

14

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2700

2000

4000

2400

3700

3100

3700

3200

3400

Average of maximum transaction price (10 thousand yen)

860

1100

750

1100

1000

200

1300

1400

1200

Average of minimum transaction price (10 thousand yen)

Source Created by 2015 Land Information System (2016)

9

19

2009

9

16

2008

No data

2006

2007

Number of properties to be traded

Year

11.8 16.4

1647

23.5

12.0

21.8

18.2

21.1

21.3

20.0

Average of maximum sales unit price (10 thousand yen/m2 )

1582

1578

1677

1606

1679

1800

2025

1900

Average of transaction price (10 thousand yen)

Table 5.4 Transaction price of used houses in Misuzugaoka estates (2006–2015)

4.8

6.3

4.5

6.2

5.9

1.1

7.6

7.4

7.1

Average of minimum sales unit price (10 thousand yen/m2 )

9.3

9.3

8.8

9.5

9.1

9.1

10.2

10.5

11.2

Average unit price (10 thousand yen/m2 )

177.9

170.9

180.8

175.4

177.5

186.1

177.8

193.4

170.0

Average area of sales properties (m2 )

5 The Decline in Price of Suburban Secondhand Housing … 81

72

Fujinoki

2890

3133

1856

897

3500

3140

2000

Average of maximum transaction price (10 thousand yen)

1174

990

828

369

1262

835

634

Average of minimum transaction price (10 thousand yen)

Source Created by 2015 Land Information System (2016)

80

31

Suginamidai

127

63

Bisyamondai

Satsukigaoka

117

Koyo New Town

Misuzugaoka

68

Asahigaoka

Number of properties to be traded

1934

1722

1293

581

2080

1916

1137

Average of transaction price (10 thousand yen)

19.6

18.5

10.0

3.9

20.8

18.9

8.6

Average of maximum sales unit price (10 thousand yen/m2 )

Table 5.5 Transaction price of used houses in suburban housing complex in Hiroshima City (2006–2015)

4.7

5.7

4.6

1.6

7.4

4.2

2.4

Average of minimum sales unit price (10 thousand yen/m2 )

10.3

9.7

6.9

2.5

12.7

10.4

5.0

Average unit price (10 thousand yen/m2 )

228.2

178.9

192.5

233.8

168.0

204.7

268.6

Average area of sales properties (m2 )

82 Y. Yui

5 The Decline in Price of Suburban Secondhand Housing …

83

Interestingly, unit price and transaction price trends are flat or rising, and price crashes due to differences in location conditions are not apparent. In other words, for transaction prices of secondhand houses in residential estates—such as when disposing of empty houses caused by the aging society—even if there are properties that have become extremely inexpensive, there is no significant change throughout the housing market. The reason why transactions of extremely low-priced properties are small relies on real estate companies. It is difficult for real estate companies to sell cheap properties because it takes time and effort for public relations and sales activities, and the commission is low. Therefore, many real estate agents avoid used homes. In other words, the brokerage fee is determined by the traded price, 5% for two million yen or less, 4% for two million yen or more, and 3% for the remainder, so that the total consumption tax is 8%. It is a troublesome calculation method, and while brokerage fees for high-value properties are highly profitable for real estate agents, low-value properties hardly make a profit. However, because high-priced and low-priced items cost the same advertisement fee, on the transaction price of secondhand houses in far suburban estates in the urban fringe, the fee income of real estate agents is minimal and it is difficult to pay the advertisement fee. Consequently, remarkably cheap secondhand residential properties do not appear in advertisements, and they become difficult to distribute and, finally, tend to be “dead stock.” Furthermore, analyzing the trends in trading prices of secondhand condominiums in the Asakita Ward, Hiroshima City, and Hatsukaichi City from “the real estate transaction price information,” the transaction price of secondhand condominiums in suburban areas declined considerably regarding the selling price at the time of construction. Although properties with a relatively short construction period and a large residential estate are traded on the order of 20 million yen, when considering the lowest selling price, it significantly cuts in the ten million, two million, or three million ranges. It is clear that secondhand condominiums in suburban areas which were originally lower price as new constructions, but they are further collapsed prices as secondhand houses.

5.4 Conclusion In the future, as the population ages, the number of vacant houses will increase as a result of residents moving into welfare facilities or dying, creating marginal settlements in depopulated areas. To regenerate the suburban housing estates where aging progresses, it is important that young households move in by activating the market of used houses. However, there are many obstacles to this. The reason why trading of secondhand houses in Japan is small is also due to tax laws where the value of houses beyond their useful life is evaluated to be zero, and secondhand houses are not properly valued and require maintenance. That is why people also lose the incentive to maintain their house (Arai 2015). A significant decline in secondhand house prices in suburban housing estates in recent years can

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be seen as an adverse effect as a decline in asset value for homeowners, especially for elderly people. However, secondhand housing in suburbs will be an opportunity for young households with weak economic conditions to purchase detached houses at a low cost. However, secondhand houses that crashed were unavailable for an extended period as vacant houses. These houses could not sell immediately as substantial renovation costs were necessary, and various types of arrangements for floor plans and water surroundings were outdated. Many properties are unattractive for everyone. Furthermore, as shown by Arai (2015), the demand for new housing is high in Japan’s housing market, the share of secondhand houses is only 15% of the total number of real estate transactions, and the newness of housing tends to be highly appreciated. Because it is difficult for Japanese buyers to find cheap secondhand houses, it may be better to lend them as rental housing rather than selling them to young households. Some real estate agent bought cheap used houses and renovate them to lend. That is why there is little insistence on living newly built houses. As measures against vacant houses, local governments in various regions have cooperated with related organizations (Nishiyama and Kubo 2015), but effective countermeasures against the background of diverse regional circumstances are being sought. Conversely, among young households moving to suburban residential areas, there is a demand by second-generation suburban households with closeness to childrearing support and nursing care (Yoshida 2010; Otsuki and Jusoken 2014). Promotion of “nearby residence” may resolve vacant houses in suburban residential areas, but it is difficult to promote without revitalizing the secondhand housing market, which encourages the transfer of young households and the distribution of highquality secondhand housing. However, although revitalization of the secondhand housing market is an important position as a vacant house countermeasure, in reality, the detached secondhand housing is to be traded by choosing a city-oriented residential place. Women’s social advancement, shortening commuting time, and so on caused this new trend. To decrease the number of vacant houses, it is necessary to promote renovation and divert them to low-priced rental housing, to raise the value of vacant houses and to take measures to promote residence in vacant houses. Acknowledgements This research was financially supported by the following KAKENHI: Grantin-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Project number 15H03276, PI’s Yoshimichi Yui at Hiroshima University.

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References Arai T (2015) Current state and problems of second-hand house ownership transactions. J Land Inst (Tochi Sogo Kenkyu) 23(4):59–82 Kubo T (2015) A problematic increase in housing vacancies in suburban neighborhoods in the Tokyo metropolitan area: a case of Ushiku city. Geography (Chiri) 60(1):90–96 Kurahashi T (2014) Transaction status and price of the second-hand condominium market in the Tokyo metropolitan area: a study on inventory circulation. J Land Inst (Tochi Sogo Kenkyu) 22(4):66–72 Nakazawa T, Sato H, Kawaguchi T (2008) First generation aging, second generation on the move: the process of generation transition in two suburban neighborhoods in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Jpn J Hum Geogr 60(2):38–56 Nishiyama H, Kubo T (2015) Private, public and community partnership to deal with an increase in housing vacancies in Utsunomiya city. Geography (Chiri) 60(2):84–93 Otsuki T, Jusoken (eds) (2014) How to make use of near-living: declining birthrate and elderly society. Gakugei Shuppannsha, Tokyo Yoneyama H (2011) Housing market in the era of declining birthrate and aging population. NihonKeizai Shinbunsha, Tokyo Yoshida T (2010) Suburban decline and regeneration: looking at the shrinking city. Shoyo-shobo, Tokyo Yui Y, Sugitani M, Kubo T (2014) The housing vacancies in suburbs: a case study of Kure city. Jpn J Urban Geogr 9:69–77 Yui Y, Kubo T, Nishiyama H (eds) (2016) An increase in problematic housing vacancies in Japanese cities: geographical strategies to make better solution. Kokon-shoin, Tokyo 2015 Land Information System (2016) (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport) http://www. land.mlit.go.jp/landPrice/AriaServlet?MOD=2&TYP=0. Accessed 1 Sept 2016 2018 The list of residential estates, Hiroshima city (2018) http://www.city.hiroshima.lg.jp/www/ contents/1425434724339/simple/danchiichiran.pdf. Accessed 1 Oct 2018

Chapter 6

Distribution of Vacant Homes in Tama City in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area: Estimation Using GIS and Small Area Statistics Hitoshi Miyazawa Abstract Using a geographic information system (GIS) and small area statistics, this paper estimated the distribution of vacant homes in Tama city located in the suburbs of the Tokyo metropolitan area. It is estimated that in Tama city, the number of vacant homes doubled in the 10 years until 2015 and that the residential vacancy rate also increased twofold. In Tama city, vacant homes emerged significantly in an area where private apartment houses are built. It is estimated that, in recent years, vacant homes in this area increased markedly. People of younger generations who rent a house to attend university or commute for work are decreasing here. It is therefore considered that the vacancy of apartment houses and condominiums will increase. If the decrease of younger people continues because of a decline in the number of children or increased return to the center of metropolis, then vacant homes will increase further in private rented complex housing. The southern part of Tama city is a new town area developed by a public entity where vacant homes increased greatly in rental housing of Urban Renaissance Agency during the past 10 years. This trend is partly attributable to the excessive number of residents other than elderly people moving out of older housing, although resident recruitment was halted temporarily because of renovation. Keywords Estimation of vacant home distribution · GIS · Small area statistics · Tama city · The Tokyo metropolitan area

6.1 Introduction In Japan, vacant homes have been increasing along with population decline. If appropriate management is not provided, then vacant homes will exert negative effects on local communities by impeding efforts for disaster prevention, crime prevention, sanitation, and scenery. At present, Japanese society is confronting a major challenge H. Miyazawa (B) Faculty of Letters and Education, Ochanomizu University, Tokyo, Japan e-mail: [email protected] © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 T. Kubo and Y. Yui (eds.), The Rise in Vacant Housing in Post-growth Japan, Advances in Geographical and Environmental Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-7920-8_6

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of finding countermeasures against vacant homes. During the period, local governments have established related regulations in advance of the national government since 2010 to promote measures to deal with vacant homes. In 2015, the national government enforced ‘Special Measures Act on Promotion of Measures on Vacant Homes’ to protect local residents from bad effects and to promote better utilization of vacant homes. This law stipulates that countermeasures for vacant homes should be promoted by the municipality. Based on this law, an increasing number of municipalities are now promoting countermeasures against vacant homes. Whereas recognition of the necessity of countermeasures for vacant homes is widening, in addition to the government, private firms, NPOs, and civic activity organizations have started to undertake countermeasures to address difficulties posed by vacant homes (Nitta 2012; Wakabayashi and Koizumi 2016). To promote measures to cope with vacant homes comprehensively and systematically, first of all, the current state of vacant homes must be ascertained. The ‘Housing and Land Statistical Survey’ by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications provides official statistics in which vacant homes are included as a survey item and are recognized as useful existing data for the issue of vacant homes. However, from these data from a sample survey in which several survey plots are extracted from each municipality, survey results are estimated as covering all areas and are publicized by municipality unit. In other words, the detailed distribution of vacant homes in the municipality is not identified from these data. Vacant homes were mainly identified visually on site to ascertain the actual state of vacant homes. However, this method involving visualization demands the efforts of many people, enormous expenses, and much time. Therefore, the development of a method that allows grasping and forecasting vacant homes quickly and easily using the existing data is required. This method is useful for extracting candidate areas and houses for visual surveys as well as estimation of vacant homes. To ascertain the actual state of vacant homes using existing data, houses with a water supply shut off based on tap water user information and houses not listed on the Basic Resident Register are regarded as vacant (Akiyama et al. 2018). However, the use of these data is limited in principle to a few government officials, thereby greatly limiting the users. In addition, houses without resident registration are regarded as vacant, although actually occupied and houses without water services make it difficult to make a judgment. The first object of this paper is to propose another method of estimation and to grasp the distribution of vacant homes using this method. This method uses GIS and small area statistics. Ishikawa et al. (2017) also use similar methods. Small area statistics used for this study are based on aggregation by basic units (minimum statistical areas) of the population census and building point data shown on the digital residential map marketed by Zenrin Co. Ltd. For the population census, the number of households by basic unit is used. For point data of buildings, housing data are extracted and are aggregated by the basic unit of the population census to be used as data of the number of housing units in a small area. The difference between the two is used as the estimated value of the number of vacant homes. Its proportion with regard to the whole house is regarded as the residential vacancy rate. The distribution

6 Distribution of Vacant Homes in Tama City …

89

of vacant homes in Tama city is obtained by mapping of these values by basic units using GIS. This analysis is conducted at three time points of 2005, 2010, and 2015. The transition of the number of vacant homes, the residential vacancy rate, and the distribution of vacant homes for the decade of 2005–2015 are identified. The study area is Tama city, Tokyo, located in the western Tokyo metropolitan area. Since the development of Tama New Town started in the 1960s, Tama city has experienced a rapid population increase from the 1970s to the first half of the 1990s. Subsequently, the population of Tama city has hovered at slightly less than 150,000. High growth has not been recorded. The increased number of households has also remained low since the mid-2000s. Although land utilization in Tama city is made primarily by residential area, a distinct difference exists in development methods and types of housing depending on the area, as shown later. Therefore, it is advantageous that the present state of vacant homes is grasped easily by the development method and by the type of housing. Furthermore, the study area has specific features: Many vacant homes are rental housing, as explained below. A trend exists by which similar local governments are located in large urban area and central cities in local areas. To date, vacant homes of rental housing are usually managed by the owner, who considers that tenants will appear in the housing market at some future date. It has been considered that, as a problematic issue, it is not so important. However, signs of excess supply loom as the population decrease becomes remarkable. If vacant homes continue or increase in rental housing, their management will become more difficult. The study area is located the suburbs of the Tokyo metropolitan area. While a return to the center of metropolis is becoming remarkable in large cities in Japan, in some local governments, the population increase has slowed in suburban areas; in some, population decline has begun. At the same time, rapid progress of aging is anticipated in suburban areas (Miyazawa 2015). New town areas developed by design in the suburban area for the metropolitan area are equipped with urban services and infrastructure environments at a favorable level compared with surrounding residential area formed in sprawl form. It might be said that the new town is a valuable social resource. Actually, the investigation of sustainability of the new town while degeneracy phenomena of suburbs of metropolitan areas are pointed out is necessary must address the future of suburbs of metropolitan areas, including influences on the surrounding areas. Therefore, verifying differences of the occurrence of vacant homes between residential areas developed by design, such as new towns in the suburbs of metropolitan areas, and residential areas formed in sprawl form is an important subject. Therefore, the second objective of this study is identification of the factors causing the occurrence of vacant homes in Tama city. A study of vacant homes in Tama city that includes areas developed by different development methods in suburban areas and in metropolitan areas is meaningful from the perspective of urban studies.

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6.2 Overview of the Study Area 6.2.1 Vacant Homes in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area Viewed from Official Statistics According to the housing and land statistical survey of 2013, the number of vacant homes in the Tokyo metropolitan area (70 km zone from the center of the metropolis) was about 2 million (excluding secondary housing). The ratio of this figure to total housing is 12.5%. Changes in the number of vacant homes during 2003–2013 in the Tokyo metropolitan area are about a 410,000 increase; the rate of increase is 25.8%. The increase of the residential vacancy rate to total housing in 10 years was 0.96 points: It increased slightly. The fact that the number of housing units itself increased by about 2.2 million (16.1% increase) during these 10 years serves as the background. Vacant homes increased in the 10 years leading up to 2013 in the Tokyo metropolitan area, as analyzed by the type of construction and use application. Data show that the increase of vacant units in rented apartment houses was 64.1% (highest), followed by vacant detached homes of ‘other use application’ that are neither for rent nor sale: 26.9%. Of apartment houses, vacant units of ‘other use application’ were 6.1%; detached homes for sale were 3.1%. Table 6.1 shows these indices by distance from the center of metropolis. If the area of more than 50 km from the center of the metropolis is excluded, then no noticeable difference can be found in the residential vacancy rate. Regarding the increase of vacant homes during the 10 years through 2013, the increase in 10–30 km from the center of the metropolis is the greatest. The contribution rate of this distance zone to the overall increase is high. Furthermore, the rate of residential vacancy increases at 20–30 km from the center of metropolis during the 10 years was also high. Regarding the contribution rate by type of construction and use application of vacant homes, the increase of vacant homes of apartment houses for rent in the 10–30 km zone from the center of metropolis is high. Next, the distribution of vacant homes in the Tokyo metropolitan area was checked by municipality. Figure 6.1a shows the number of vacant homes and the residential vacancy rate by municipality. Municipalities having many vacant homes are shown as distributed at the outer edge of Tokyo special wards. The number of vacant homes in municipalities in suburbs is less. If the distribution of the residential vacancy rate is checked, then it is apparent that municipalities with higher residential vacancy rate are located west of the center of the metropolis periphery and the outer edge of the Tokyo metropolitan area. It is readily apparent from Fig. 6.1b that vacant homes for rent are distinctive in the western and southwestern suburbs of the Tokyo metropolitan area. They are mostly apartment houses. For other sectors, in many municipalities, the greater the distance from the center of the metropolis, the more vacant homes of ‘other use application’ are found.

11.7

11.7

12.5

15.1

16.8

12.5

10–20

20–30

30–40

40–50

50–60

60–70

Total

410,900

23,400

28,200

53,200

88,700

107,900

95,100

28,200

25.8

34.4

29.9

31.4

25.7

34.7

21.4

13.2

6.9

100.0

5.7

6.9

12.9

21.6

26.3

23.1

64.1

2.3

2.5

5.2

10.2

17.9

18.3

6.1

0.1

0.7

1.8

1.1

2.7

0.9

−1.3

3.5 26.9

−0.1 3.1

3.3

5.5

6.2

4.8

3.1

0.6

Other application

0.1

0.1

1.1

0.6

1.1

0.1

For sale

7.7

Detached home

For rent

Other application

Apartment building

Total

Increase

Increasing rate: %

Contribution ratio for increase, 2003–2013: %

Increase of vacant homes, 2003–2013

Source Created by editing 2003 Housing and Land Survey (2014) and 2013 Housing and Land Survey (2015) (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)

12.9

12.5

0–10

Residential vacancy rate, 2013: %

Distance from the center of the metropolis: km

Table 6.1 Vacant homes by distance from center of the Tokyo metropolitan area

6 Distribution of Vacant Homes in Tama City … 91

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H. Miyazawa

Fig. 6.1 Distribution of vacant homes in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Source Created based on 2013 Housing and Land Survey (2015) (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)

6 Distribution of Vacant Homes in Tama City …

93

6.2.2 Overview of Tama City The study area, Tama city, is located about 30 km west from the center of the Tokyo metropolis. As stated previously, the Tama city population increased rapidly from the 1970s to the first half of the 1990s along with the development of Tama new town. Subsequently, the population of Tama city is hovering at slightly less than 150,000. It was found to be 146,631 by the population census in 2015: about a 1000 decrease from the survey five years prior. The number of households by the population census in 2015 was 65,476, which is a 1400 increase from the survey five years ago, although the increasing rate has been decreasing. These data show that, in recent years, no great change has occurred in the population or number of households. However, population aging rate increased from 11.1% in 2000 to 26.5% in 2015, representing a noticeable advancement of aging. According to future forecasts conducted by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, the aging rate will rise to 40% order in 2045. The population will decrease to slightly above the 120,000 level. Figure 6.2 shows the utilization of residential land in Tama city. This figure is drawn by aggregating building point data by the basic unit used in the population census to identify remarkable types of housing. Tama new town has developed at the southern part of Tama city. For the development of Tama new town, two development methods were used: the Land Readjustment Project and the New Housing and Urban Development Project. The area developed by the land readjustment project is located along the railway and major roads in the new town. Many private complex housing units (condominium/rental apartment house, rented apartments) are accumulated along with the railroad and roads running east–west. Many higher educational institutes such as universities, including those moved from the center of the metropolis, are located in Tama city and peripheral areas. Regarding private complex housing, much rental housing was built to accommodate students. Other areas were developed according to a design by public institutions using the new housing and urban development project. Public complex housing (for sale and for rent) has been built here. Moving into these public complex housings started gradually from 1971. The majority are of medium-rise housing (five-story) without an elevator. As inhabitants are aged, barrier-free issues will come to represent an important difficulty. Deterioration of housing units built at the beginning of moving is remarkable. It represents an important part of the start of housing replacement. The northern part of the city is outside of Tama new town. Many residential areas formed in a sprawl configuration, although some residential areas were developed by private developers intentionally. In this area, private complex housing is also built along major roads. In some areas, detached homes are remarkable, although public complex housing for rent does exist in some parts. As described above, in Tama city, types of development method and housing differ in every area. Their differences are evident. It is therefore considered that vacant house emergence status might be studied easily in relation to differences of development methods and of housing built for every area.

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Fig. 6.2 Utilization of residential land in Tama city. Source Drawn by aggregating Building Point Data by ZENRIN

The vacant house status in Tama city was checked based on the Housing and Land Statistics Survey. According to data of 2003, the number of vacant homes in Tama city was 4500. Those in 2008 were 5300, representing a 17.8% increase in five years. The same in 2013 was 6810: a 28.5% increase compared to 2008. Consequently, the increase in vacant homes has tended to accelerate. Regarding the rate of vacant homes, 7.7% in 2003 increased to 8.4% in 2008 and 10.3% in 2013. The increase of vacant homes in 2008–2013 was checked in terms of differences in the type of construction of housing and use applications. As a result, the total of row houses for rent, apartment units for rent, and other houses for rent was 136.4%, greatly exceeding other types. Eventually, the residential vacancy rate of these types to whole vacant homes increased from 66.2% in 2008 to as high as 81.8% in 2015. Features of vacant homes in the western Tokyo observed previously also appear in Tama city.

6 Distribution of Vacant Homes in Tama City …

95

6.3 Estimation of the Distribution of Vacant Homes in Tama City 6.3.1 Distribution of Vacant Homes in 2015 Using the number of households by the basic unit of the population census and the number of housing units, the number of vacant homes and distribution of vacant homes in Tama city in 2015 was estimated using the method explained in Sect. 6.1. Table 6.2 presents results by area in the city and by remarkable land utilization. For the entirety of Tama city, the number of vacant homes was estimated as slightly more than 10,000; the residential vacancy rate was estimated as 14.1%. The city is divided into Tama new town area and other areas. Tama new town area can be divided into the new housing and urban development project execution area and the land readjustment project execution area. Regarding the number of vacant homes, the land readjustment project execution area is the highest, followed by out of Tama new town and new housing and urban development project execution area. Similar matters are also observed for estimation of the residential vacancy rate, whereas the residential vacancy rate in the land readjustment project execution area in Tama new town area is the highest. Furthermore, in Tama city, the type of housing for which vacant homes occur can be ascertained by checking the number of vacant homes and the residential vacancy rate by residential land utilization. In Tama city, many vacant homes are found in areas where public complex housing is remarkable and where the residential vacancy rate is also high. This trend is remarkable outside of Tama new town and the land readjustment project execution area in Tama new town area. Vacant homes are generated frequently in the area where detached houses and private complex housing are mixed. It is considered that private complex housing is responsible for this relation. Although not shown in the table, if complex housing were divided into condominium buildings and apartment houses, then the residential vacancy rate in the area where apartment houses are dominant is high. In the new housing and urban development project execution area, many vacant homes occur in rental housing, which is managed by the Urban Renaissance Agency (UR) and the Tokyo Metropolitan Housing Supply Corporation, although this trend is remarkable in rental housing by UR. However, public rental housing is slightly different in that the generation of vacant homes in the Tokyo Metropolitan Housing and municipal housing is suppressed if viewed in terms of the residential vacancy rate. By contrast, the number of vacant homes is less and the residential vacancy rate is low in areas of detached homes. In the new housing and urban development project execution area in Tama new town, the vacant homes are fewer; the vacancy rate is low even in areas where apartment buildings (housing units built for sale) are remarkable and in areas where houses built for sale by UR or Tokyo Metropolitan Housing Supply Corporation are abundant. Figure 6.3 shows the distribution of vacant homes by each basic unit block obtained by converting the estimation results described above into a density distribution by Kernel density estimation because the centroid of each basic unit block

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Table 6.2 Results of estimation of vacant homes in Tama city, 2015 By area and by utilization of residential land

Number of households

Number of housing units

Estimation

Out of Tama new town

21,858

25,597

3739

14.6

Area for detached homes

5445

5485

40

0.7

Area for private complex housing

8805

11,161

2356

21.1

Area where detached homes and private complex housing are mixed

6100

7273

1173

16.1

Area for UR rental housing

863

1049

186

17.7

Area for rental housing by Tokyo Metropolitan Housing Supply Corporation

169

196

27

13.8

Area for Tokyo metropolitan housing and municipal dwelling house

155

166

11

6.6

New housing and urban development project execution area in Tama new town

28,332

31,355

3023

9.6

Area for detached homes

2975

3066

91

3.0

Area for private complex housing

3556

3707

151

4.1

Area for UR house built for sale

9019

9502

483

5.1

Area for house built by Tokyo Metropolitan Housing Supply Corporation for sale

1659

1786

127

7.1

Area for UR rental housing

4880

6316

1436

22.7

Number of vacant homes

Residential vacancy rate: %

(continued)

6 Distribution of Vacant Homes in Tama City …

97

Table 6.2 (continued) By area and by utilization of residential land

Number of households

Number of housing units

Estimation Number of vacant homes

Residential vacancy rate: %

Area for rental housing by Tokyo Metropolitan Housing Supply Corporation

1273

1503

230

15.3

Area for Tokyo Metropolitan Housing

4683

5115

432

8.4

14,700

19,108

4408

23.1

306

311

5

1.6

12,075

16,053

3978

24.8

2319

2744

425

15.5

65,458

76,228

10,770

14.1

Land readjustment project execution area in Tama new town Area for detached homes Area for private complex housing Area where detached homes and private complex housing are mixed Total

is regarded as a representative point. The reason for such processing is that the boundary of a basic unit block cannot be mapped based on the user policy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, which provided the basic unit block data. This figure shows that an area with particularly high vacant house density is located along the railway and main roads. If Fig. 6.2 showing residential land utilization is observed together, then vacant homes can be seen to be distributed at high density in areas where private complex housing is remarkable. Particularly, highly remarkable vacant house density is recognized along with the road running east–west around Seiseki-sakuragaoka Station and along with the railroad and road running in east and west at the northern part of Tama new town. An area with high vacant home density is apparent in part of the new housing and urban development project execution area located south of Nagayama Station. Public rental housing is remarkable in these areas, as presented in Fig. 6.2, where old rental housing constructed by UR in the 1970s is lined up.

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Fig. 6.3 Distribution density of vacant homes in Tama city, 2015

6.3.2 Changes in Vacant House Distribution During 2005–2015 In addition to estimation results from 2015, those for 2005 and 2010 can be checked to ascertain changes of vacant homes in Tama city during the 10 years from 2005 (Fig. 6.4). The numbers of vacant homes in all of Tama city were estimated as about 5000 in 2005 and as about 7600 in 2010. The estimation for 2015 was about 10,000. It is therefore presumed that the number of vacant homes became twofold in 10 years. Regarding changes of the vacancy rate, it is estimated as 7.4% in 2005 and 10.6% in 2010. The residential vacancy rate in 2015 was estimated as 14.1%. Therefore, it is considered that this value also doubled in 10 years. As for vacant homes by each area in Tama city, the increase of vacant homes in 10 years from 2005 was estimated as about 2300 (highest) in the land readjustment project execution area in Tama new town, about 2000 in the new housing and urban development project execution area, and about 1700 outside of Tama new town. However, the rate of increase in the past 10 years was estimated as 204.1% (highest) in the new housing and urban development project execution area in Tama new town, which is far higher than the 109.4% in the land readjustment project execution area and 88.2% in out of Tama new town. Regarding housing by land utilization, the

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Fig. 6.4 Changes of vacant homes in Tama city, 2005–2015

increase of vacant homes in the area where private complex housing are gathered is remarkable outside of Tama new town and the land readjustment project execution area in Tama new town during the 10 years from 2005. The contribution rates of vacant homes in the area concerned to the increase of vacant homes during the 10 years were 38.8 and 17.7%, respectively, which are significant. In the new housing and urban development project execution area in Tama new town, the increase of vacant homes was significant in the area where rental housing by UR was abundant. Regarding the increase of vacant homes in the area concerned during 10 years, the contribution ratio was 13.5%. This value increased greatly in the past 10 years for areas where private complex housing and rental housing by UR are remarkable. The residential vacancy rate increased for rental housing by Tokyo Metropolitan Housing Supply

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Fig. 6.5 Changes of vacant house density in Tama city, 2005–2015

Corporation, Tokyo Metropolitan Housing and municipal housing, although this trend is remarkable during the five years from 2010. During that time, for the area in which detached homes are abundant, vacant homes increased less. Moreover, the residential vacancy rate was low or decreased. Changes in the distribution of vacant homes during 2005–2015 were estimated using Kernel density estimation method with a manner similar to that shown in the previous section. The so-called dual Kernel density estimation method was used, in which the difference between the density distribution of vacant homes in 2005 and that of 2015 (Fig. 6.3) was used. The obtained results are presented in Fig. 6.5 in which areas with increased density of vacant homes in 10 years until 2015 are shown by a darker color. Although this figure shows that the density of vacant homes is increased throughout Tama city, it is known that the area with increased density greatly still has high density at the 2015 time point.

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6.4 Factors Affecting the Increase of Vacant Homes in Tama City 6.4.1 Deviation of Trend of Housing Supply and Increase/Decrease of the Number of Households From a comparison of data from 2005 and 2015, factors influencing the increase of the number of vacant homes during those 10 years in Tama city are discussed here. The increase and decrease of the number of vacant homes can be verified from the relation between the increase and decrease of the number of housing units and the number of households. First, the increase and decrease of the number of housing units are checked. According to the building point data, the numbers of housing units of Tama city in 2005 were about 68,000 and 77,000 in 2015. This represents an increase in the number of housing units of about 9000 for 10 years. This figure is considered adequate because the number of construction starts from the 2006 fiscal year through the 2015 fiscal year in Tama city was 9740 (Tokyo Statistical Yearbook). During that time, the increase of the number of households in Tama city for those 10 years was only about 2500: The increase of the number of housing units was greater. Next, the numerical increase of housing units in Tama city is checked by area. Data show that the increase of about 4000 of new housing and urban development project execution area in Tama city was the greatest, followed by about 3000 of outside of Tama new town and about 2600 in the land readjustment project execution area in Tama new town. Regarded by residential land utilization, about 3000 houses (contribution ratio 33.3%) in the area where private collective housing units are abundant in the new housing and urban development project execution area is the greatest, followed by about 2200 houses (the same 24.3%) in the area where private collective housing is abundant in the land readjustment project execution area, and about 1200 houses (the same 13.3%) in the area where private collective housing is abundant outside of Tama new town. Reasons for the increase of private complex housing units in the new housing and urban development project execution area in Tama new town are that the number of houses of private collective housing increased through rebuilding of deteriorated UR housing; moreover, after official development of the new town was completed, unused land was sold. Private condominium buildings were developed. In Tama new town, the number of housing units increased even in areas where detached homes are abundant, resulting in an increase of 1800 houses (the same 20.7%). In the new housing and urban development project execution area in Tama new town, a decrease of about 500 households was noted in the area where houses built for sale by UR were abundant. This result derives from rebuilding of old deteriorated housings as described previously. Next, the increase/decrease relation between housing and households for 10 years during 2005–2015 is checked. Although this should be checked by basic unit block, aggregation is made using city district because population census data are used for analyses in the next section. Figure 6.6 shows a mapping of the net results (increase

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Fig. 6.6 Deviation of houses and increase/decrease of households in Tama city, 2005–2015

of housing minus increase and decrease of households) by city district. The data show that the greater value a city district has, the greater the deviation of the increase of housing units and increase/decrease of households. With this city district, the possibility of vacant house occurrence is high. This map shows that city districts with greater deviation of both have a clear correspondence relation with the area where the density of vacant homes is increased greatly during the 10 years from 2005, as observed from Fig. 6.5. Three areas A, B, and C were selected to check the span where the above-shown city districts are concerned. In area A located outside Tama new town, private collective housing is abundant where an increase of detached homes and private mid-tohigh-rise collective housing became abundant during the 10 years from 2005. During that time, the number of households decreased in this area. Area B is located in the new housing and urban development project execution area in Tama new town where UR rental housing is abundant. Although the increase of housing units is less in private mid-to-high-rise collective housing, the decrease of the number of households is considerable. In Area C, which was developed by the land readjustment project along with major road running in east–west and the railroad in Tama new town, private collective housing is gathered. Although the increase of the number of households

6 Distribution of Vacant Homes in Tama City …

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is remarkable in this area, housing increased, greatly exceeding this level. They are mostly private high-rise collective housing. From the discussion presented above, it might be inferred that housing is supplied excessively in areas A and C in 10 years from 2005. However, a difference was noted that the number of households decreased in area A, but increased in area C. By contrast, in area B, housing became surplus, accompanying the decrease in the total number of households.

6.4.2 Changes of Population and Households in the Area Where Vacant Homes Increased Table 6.3 presents the increase and decrease of the number of households and the corresponding contribution ratio in the above-shown three areas where vacant homes increased during the 10 years from 2005, which is revealed by the population census. In area A, the number of households decreased during the 10 years from 2005. Regarding home ownership, the decrease of households living in private rented homes and buildings other than residential homes (dormitories and facilities) contributed to this decrease. As for type of housing unit, a decrease of households living in lowrise collective housing is also responsible for this. Furthermore, regarding the family type, the decrease of one-person households greatly contributes to the decrease in the number of households. During the period, households living in an owned home, households living in detached homes, households living in mid-rise and highrise (more than 11 stories) buildings, and households comprising only one couple increased. In area B, the number of households decreased greatly during the 10 years from 2005. Decrease of households living in public rented homes, decrease of households living in high-rises of more than 11 stories and mid-rise collective housing, and decrease of households consisting of a husband and wife and their children are responsible for this decrease. Regarding the decrease of the number of households living in these public rented houses, the influence of temporary interruption of moving in accompanied by renovation, seismic countermeasures, etc., primarily of old high-rise buildings, is considered. During the period, the number of one-person households increased. In area C, the number of households increased greatly during the 10 years from 2005. The increase of households living in their own house and the increase of households living in more than six-story, particularly in more than 11-story buildings, are responsible for this increase. Regarding the type of family, the increase of households consisted of a husband and wife and their children and household with husband and wife. During the period, households living in a private rented house, households living in less than five-story collective housing, and one-person households all decreased. Changes of households explained above are correlated with changes of population by age. Figure 6.7 shows populations in five-year age groups in three areas at three time points of 2005, 2010, and 2015. The population of 20s and 30s is known to

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Table 6.3 Changes in the number of households in an area with an increasing vacant home and the contribution ratio by attribute Area A

Area B

Area C

−186

−315

448

Own home

−185.3

−3.2

187.3

Private rented housing

192.9

4.4

−71.9

Public rented housing

7.1

100.6

−5.8

Building other than housing

82.6

−1.6

1.1

Detached house

−67.9

−1.3

26.7

Row house

−12.5

0.0

−1.5

Increase/decrease of households, 2005–2015 Home ownership %

Construction of house %

Complex housing

94.6

102.2

74.2

Single-story/Two-story house

236.4

0.0

−27.8

3–5-story building

−63.6

42.7

−50.4

6–10-story building

−1.1

−29.1

51.1

More than 11-story

−77.2

88.6

101.3

Type of family % Husband and wife only

−52.7

10.8

50.7

Household consisted of husband and wife and their children

−3.8

140.6

76.3

One-person household

142.5

−65.1

−52.2

Source Created by editing 2005 Population Census (2014) and 2015 Population Census (2017) (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)

have shrunk recently in every area. It is also known that elderly populations of people from their 70s to 80s increased recently in every area. However, for other age groups, differences are found by area. In area A, the size of the population of people around 50 years old is expanding. In area C, the population size of people in their 40s to 50s is expanding, but in area B, the population size of people in their 50s is shrinking. Next, migration of population by age is checked from net migration using fiveyear age groups as presented in Fig. 6.8 for three areas. However, net migration during the five years during 2000–2005 is also shown here. This figure shows that migration by age in areas A and C differs from that of area B. In areas A and C, an excess of moving in was found with the age group in which the first half of the 10s become the latter half of the 10s’ five years later. By contrast, an excess of moving out is apparent for the age group in which the latter half of the 10s becomes the first half of the 20s. However, for the excess of moving out seen for the latter, this trend differs in areas A and C such that in area C, the scale of moving out is becoming remarkable, whereas the same in area A is shrinking. Furthermore, in area C, the excess of moving in (not remarkable) of age group from the 30s to 40s is apparent

6 Distribution of Vacant Homes in Tama City …

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Fig. 6.7 Population in five-year age groups in areas where vacant homes are increased. Source Created based on 2005 Population Census (2014), 2010 Population Census (2012), and 2015 Population Census (2017) (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)

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H. Miyazawa

Fig. 6.8 Net migration by five-year age groups in areas where vacant homes are increased. Source Created based on 2000 Population Census (2014), 2005 Population Census (2014), 2010 Population Census (2012), and 2015 Population Census (2017) (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)

6 Distribution of Vacant Homes in Tama City …

107

for the 2000s. By contrast, such features are not recognized in area B. In area B, those people in the latter half of their 60s and older showed excess moving in; other age groups showed an excess of moving out, which is not remarkable. Regarding migration by age identified as described above, moving in of the age group of people in their late 60s and older is related to moving into public rental housing, which suggests that elderly single people moved in as the younger people were moving out. Excess moving in of people in their 30s to 40s in 2000s in area C suggests that residents of this age group moved into high-rise condominiums for sale developed at that time. These are not contradictory to the changes of the number of households checked by attributes described above. During the period, as for excess of moving in and excess of moving out of the young generation in areas A and C, the former is regarded as attributable to advancement to the university and employment and the latter is regarded as employment after graduation from the university. The extent to which both areas show a recent decrease in moving is noteworthy. In other words, the population size of these age groups has been decreasing year by year. That of people moving in is also shrinking. These findings are not contradictory to the decrease of the number of one-person households. Moreover, the households living in low-to-medium-rise collective housing are decreasing in both areas. The background of the fact that there are differences in changes of excess of moving out of age group of people in their late 20s in areas A and C is considered such that, for commuting of employed workers, access to central Tokyo is slightly more convenient for area A, thereby suppressing moving in. If results presented above are regarded comprehensively, then except for the new housing and urban development project execution area in Tama new town, vacant homes are increasing where private collective housing is abundant. The background for this phenomenon is that moving in of age group primarily of university students around their 20s and young people who get jobs for the first time is cited. In other words, the decrease of young generation who rent houses in this area for commuting to schools or for work caused the increase of vacancies at apartment houses and rented condominiums. This trend is proven by the result of the previous estimation that when collective housing is divided into apartment houses and condominium buildings, the residential vacancy rate is higher in areas where apartment houses are abundant. By contrast, in areas where collective housing is developed by public entities in Tama new town, vacant homes increased in public rental housing. For these housing units, elderly people tend to move in, whereas younger people tend to move out. It is considered that moving out of the latter age group contributes to the increase of vacancies. However, for rental housing built many years ago, resident recruitment is halted temporarily at times of renovation such as large-scale repair. Thereby, the possibility of planned vacant housing occurrence by management entities is pointed out.

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6.5 Conclusions The status of residential vacancy occurrence in Tama city, located in the suburbs of the Tokyo metropolitan area, is grasped by estimation of the distribution of vacant homes using GIS and small region statistics. It is estimated that vacant homes in Tama city doubled from 5000 to about 10,000 during the ten years until 2015 and that the residential vacancy rate also increased remarkably from 7.4% in 2005 to 14.1% in 2015. In Tama city, vacant homes are remarkable in areas where private complex housing accumulates along with major road and railroad access. It is estimated that in this area, vacant homes increased dramatically during the 10 years until 2015. It is also estimated that in Tama new town, vacant homes of UR rental housing have increased greatly in recent years. As for the background of increase of vacant homes of UR rental housing, excess of moving out of households other than elderly people from old housings built many years ago has been pointed out. However, the influence of temporary interruption of inhabitant recruitment by renovation work primary for high-rise rental housing should be considered. As for the background of increased vacant homes in areas where private complex housing is abundant, a decrease of younger people who rent housing to attend university or commute for work is cited. Consequently, vacant homes have increased in apartment buildings and rental housing. Such a decrease of younger generations has been increasingly apparent similarly in other municipalities in the suburbs of the Tokyo metropolitan area. Particularly moving in of younger people has decreased greatly during the 10 years until 2015 in suburbs located at west of center of metropolis. Again, they are municipalities where vacant rented houses are remarkable, as described previously. Regarding the background of the decrease of younger generations and of their inflows in the suburbs, the decrease of younger generation population by the decline in the number of children and the tendency for living in the center of metropolis are pointed out. When considered based on the analysis of results presented in this paper, if the decreased residency of younger people continues, vacant homes will increase further in private rented complex housing in the western suburbs of the Tokyo metropolitan area. Acknowledgements The author is grateful to the Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications for providing the statistics data used in this paper. This work is supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Numbers 15H03276.

References Akiyama Y, Ueda A, Ono Y, Takaoka H, Kino Y, Hisadome K (2018) Monitoring of spatial distribution of vacant houses using municipal public data in Kagoshima city, Kagoshima prefecture. J Archit Plann (Trans AIJ) 83(744):275–283 Building Point Data (2016) Zenrin Co. Ltd.

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Ishikawa M, Matsuhashi K, Kanamori Y, Ariga T (2017) Method of grasping detailed regional distribution of vacant dwelling based on the number of dwellings and households. J City Plann Inst Jpn 52:689–695 Miyazawa H (2015) Aging of population and community development in suburbs of metropolitan area. In: Hino M, Kagawa T (eds) The changing Japanese metropolitan area under the post-growth society. Nakanishiya, Kyoto, pp 179–196 Nitta G (2012) Vacant room reproduction in the Onomichi central part slope city area, and a vacant room bank. City Plann Rev 61(3):82–83 Wakabayashi Y, Koizumi R (2016) Vacant house business evolution in the Tokyo area. In: Yui Y, Kubo T, Nishiyama H (eds) An increase in problematic housing vacancies in Japanese cities: geographical strategies to make better solution. Kokon-shoin, Tokyo, pp 165–174 2003 Housing and Land Survey (2014) Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/. Accessed 5 July 2018 2013 Housing and Land Survey (2015) Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/. Accessed 5 July 2018 2000 Population Census (2014) Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan website. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/. Accessed 5 July 2018 2005 Population Census (2014) Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan https://www.e-stat.go.jp/. Accessed 5 July 2018 2010 Population Census (2012) Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/. Accessed 5 July 2018 2015 Population Census (2017) Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/. Accessed 5 July 2018

Chapter 7

Urban Abandonment and Housing Vacancies in Japanese Local Cities: A Case of Kyo-machiya, Traditional Wooden Town Houses Keiji Yano Abstract Today many historical buildings including temples, shrines, Kyo-machiya (traditional wooden townhouses), and western-style buildings of the prewar period can still be found in Kyoto. They are architectural heritages that help shape the city’s historical urban landscape. However, the number of Kyo-machiya and modern western-style buildings has recently begun to rapidly disappear as a result of ongoing urban development and property modifications. To preserve these important historical buildings, the Kyoto city government has established several measures including the new Kyoto Landscape Policy 2007 based on the three large-scale surveys for the city center, conducted in 1995–1998, 2003–2004, and 2008–2009. These surveys, called the First, Second, and Third Kyo-machiya Community-building Surveys, have greatly contributed to the better understanding of the overall situation Kyo-machiya the city government. The Kyo-machiya survey data, as well as the Kyoto City Policy for conserving the good urban landscape of Kyoto, can facilitate the exploring of the relationship between the vacancy and the demolishing of Kyo-machiya. Keywords Vacancy · Demolished · Kyo-machiya · GIS · Kyoto

7.1 Introduction Kyoto is one of the typical historical cities of Japan and a precious world heritage area. Through a history of over 1200 years, Kyoto has consistently created a unique form of culture and art taking inspiration from Asian and European art forms. The attractiveness of Kyoto is emphasized in its historical scenery including natural envi-

K. Yano (B) Faculty of Letters, Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto, Japan e-mail: [email protected] © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 T. Kubo and Y. Yui (eds.), The Rise in Vacant Housing in Post-growth Japan, Advances in Geographical and Environmental Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-7920-8_7

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K. Yano

ronments and old architectures. In particular, the Kyo-machiya, traditional wooden houses that were built before 1950,1 shaped the architectural landscape of historical Kyoto before modern structures made of concrete made their appearance (Yano et al. 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009). We have conducted the three large-scale field surveys of Kyo-machiya in Kyoto since the mid-1990s (Matsumoto et al. 2011), when we confirmed the importance of promoting soundness for sustainable economic development. The first survey was in 1995–1998 and the second in 2003–2004, both led by Kyoto city government, NPOs and universities in Kyoto. The study area of these surveys was primarily the city center of Kyoto which was built in the late Meiji-era, i.e., at the start of the twentieth century. The survey results showed that in the last few decades, the number of Kyomachiya rapidly decreased due to aging of the buildings, expensive maintenance costs for owners, and stricter disaster prevention regulations. In 2007, the Kyoto city government initiated a new landscape policy, namely the Kyoto City Landscape Policy,2 with the aim of protecting the beautiful historical urban landscape of the city. The policy puts direct control on the appearance and height of buildings in four aspects: height restriction in the city center; preservation of picturesque views from certain locations; design restrictions on buildings; and regulation against the display of outdoor advertisements. Also, this new policy supports the “Kyo-machiya House Development Fund” which was established jointly by Kyoto city and the national government with public cooperation by way of donations. This fund also aims at preserving and improving the condition of Kyomachiya by aiding the renovation of those that are decaying. Around the same time as the introduction of these policies, the city decided to undertake a third survey to gather geo-spatial information on all existing Kyo-machiya in the city. The purpose of this paper was to demonstrate a loss process of Kyo-machiya, and the relationship between vacancy situations and demolish of Kyo-machiya, by using the GIS database of the Kyo-machiya surveys. Section 7.2 describes the three field surveys of Kyo-machiya that had been conducted since the mid-1990s. Section 7.3 shows the spatial distribution of Kyo-machiya based on the Kyo-machiya GIS and situations of their demolitions. Finally, we will discuss the further challenges for conserving Kyo-machiya.

7.2 Kyo-machiya Community-Building Surveys The Kyo-machiya structures are single, one-and-half, two, or three stories buildings. The form is usually deep and narrow, built very close to the edge of the street (Fig. 7.1). They are made of wood and feature earthen walls and baked tile roofs. 1 The

Building Standards Law was applied in 1950, and then, Kyo-machiya were judged as unfair buildings. 2 The Kyoto City Landscape Policy in 2007, http://www.city.kyoto.lg.jp/tokei/cmsfiles/contents/ 0000062/62129/HP-English.pdf.

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Fig. 7.1 Typical Kyo-machiya. Source Author photographed

Combining business and residential space, they express both culture of the urban merchant class and traditional manufacture. Garden, especially small and open one, known as tsubo-niwa is a distinct feature of Kyo-machiya (Kyoto Center for Community Collaboration 2008).

7.2.1 The First and Second Survey In order to investigate the actual condition of Kyo-machiya in Kyoto city, the initial systematic surveys of Kyo-machiya were collectively carried out in the second half of the 1990s by the Kyoto city government in conjunction with a non-profit organization. The focus of the survey was Kyo-machiya found in the city center which became urbanized around the end of the Meiji period (Fig. 7.2). The first survey revealed that there were 28,566 Kyo-machiya in the area at that time. Ritsumeikan University managed to utilize the results of the survey to complete our GIS data on Kyo-machiya. Table 7.1 shows a list of survey items in the survey which we could diagnose from the appearance of Kyo-machiya. In 2003–2004, a second survey was conducted by the Kyoto city government to target 18 school districts in the center of Kyoto city, while another survey on the remaining sections of the study area of the first survey was carried out by Ritsumeikan University. This survey revealed that there were only 25,599 Kyo-machiya remaining in 2003–2004, and 3931 had been demolished within about 8 years.

7.2.2 The Third Survey (2008–2009) The Kyoto city government initiated a new landscape policy in 2007 (the Kyoto City Landscape Policy) to protect the beautiful historical urban landscape. Around the same time as the introduction of these policies, the city determined to undertake a third survey to gather geo-spatial information on all Kyo-machiya in the while

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Fig. 7.2 Study area

Kyoto. The study area was widened to include the entire city of Kyoto, encompassing Fushimi, Minami, and Yamashina District, and areas nearby old main roads. It was estimated that some 48,000 Kyo-machiya had been built. The third survey had commenced in October 2008 and was completed in March 2010.3 The cumulative total number of volunteered survey participants reached about 3300, and 116 one-day surveys were conducted during a period of a year and a half. Through this survey, 47,735 Kyo-machiya in the total extended study area are identified with their location, and 27,796 Kyo-machiya in the first and second survey areas including 4749 ones which were funded newly after past survey. Hanaoka et al. (2009) examine the determinants of the demolition of Kyo-machiya in the Nishijin district using GIS and show the demolitions are determined by building type (detached/terraced), building conditions, vacancy, building height restriction, and neighborhood conditions.

3 Third

Kyo-machiya 0000089608.html.

Community-building

Survey,

http://www.city.kyoto.lg.jp/tokei/page/

7 Urban Abandonment and Housing Vacancies …

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Table 7.1 List of items in the Kyo-machiya community-building survey Items

Categories

(1) Position

1. Correct

2. Incorrect

3. New

(2) Is this a Kyo-machiya?

1. Yes

2. No (Demolished)

3. Mistake

(3) Empty house

1. Yes

2. No

3. Unclear

(4) Doorplate

(Name)

(5) Usage

1. Office

2. Multipurpose house

3. Dwelling house

4. Unclear

1. Two-story house

2. One-and-half story house

3. Three-story house

4. One-story house

(B) Roof

1. Gable

2. Gambrel

(C) Options

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

(A) Type of wall

1. Stud wall

2. Half-timber

(B) Entrance door

1. Yes

2. No

(C) two-story with traditional window

1. Yes

2. No

(D) Mud or plaster walls

1. Visible

2. Non-visible

(E) Fitting of one-story

1. Lattice door

2. Window back with lattice door

3. N/A

(8) Condition

1. Good

2. Moderate

3. Need of repair

(9) Special affairs

1. 2. 3. 4. 5.

(6) Type

(7) Façade

(A) Structure

3. Others

All of house with renovated façade A part of house with renovated façade Row house Houses with a fence Roji (smallest units of alleys) lane houses N/A

Value of cultural property Need for improvement structures Goodness of streetscape Kyo-machiya with Roji Shimotaya (“closed shop” town houses not used as business 6. Heavy degradation (continued)

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Table 7.1 (continued) Items

Categories

(10) Present urban land use

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.

Low-rise residential housing Store Apartments Office/Commercial building Covered parking lots Open parking lots Open spaces Others

Source Iizuka et al. (2009)

7.3 The Spatial Distribution of Kyo-machiya Based on the Kyo-machiya GIS The Kyo-machiya GIS stores all results of three Kyo-machiya surveys. In this system, Kyo-machiya is represented by point data with various attributes (as shown in Table 7.1). The points were converted to polygons that correspond to the shape of Kyo-machiya based on a large-scale detailed residential digital map (i.e., Zmap Town II provided by ZENRIN CO., LTD.). It enables to identify the overall area size, and lengths of a frontage and a depth of the Kyo-machiya. As to the third survey, there are all frontal photographs of each Kyo-machiya. Using the Kyo-machiya GIS, we can draw various maps for the data collected from the “Kyo-machiya Community Survey,” types of Kyo-machiya, vacancy, presence of designs, conditions, and so on. The density map of Kyo-machiya represents its spatial distribution. In GIS, we can use the kernel density estimate or count points per mesh polygon in order to grasp spatial distribution effectively. The Kyo-machiya GIS could appear to be transition in the spatial distribution of Kyo-machiya, especially within the study area for the first and second survey in those three periods as 1995–1998, 2003–2004, and 2008–2009. The results of surveys reveal a change in the number of Kyo-machiya located in the city center, with 28,566 in 1995–1998, 25,599 in 2003–2004, and 27,796 (47,735 for the extended study area) in 2008–2009. The last survey took those uncounted Kyo-machiya (4749) into account which we refer to as newly found Kyo-machiya (Table 7.2). The spatial patterns of Kyo-machiya are shown in Fig. 7.3. These figures show the density distribution of Kyo-machiya in each survey using the kernel density estimate. Basically, Kyo-machiya are distributed evenly across the study area excluding the large open areas (Old Imperial Palace, Nijo Castle, Nishi Honganji, and Higashi Honganji) and the city center near Shijo-Karasuma. The concentrated areas are clearly seen in the Nishijin and Higashiyama areas of the city. Also, there is a certain change in the study area over the three-time slices that the overall number of Kyo-machiya had been decreasing. A total of 3931 Kyo-machiya (13.8%) had been demolished between 1995–1998 and 2003–2004 (Fig. 7.4a). Similarly, the third survey reveals that 2552 Kyo-machiya (10.0%) had been demolished

7 Urban Abandonment and Housing Vacancies …

(a) 1995-1998

(b) 2003-2004

117

(c) 2008-2009

Fig. 7.3 Spatial distributions of Kyo-machiya. Source Author’s field survey

between 2003–2004 and 2008–2009 (Fig. 7.4b). Calculated with the number above, it turned out Kyo-machiya decreased at a rate of 2.3% per annum (between the first and second surveys) and a rate of 2.5% per annum (between the second and third surveys), though demolished Kyo-machiya generally distributed all across the study area. In the second and third surveys, urban land use after demolished Kyo-machiya was investigated. According to 3931 demolished Kyo-machiya between 1995–1998 and 2003–2004 (Table 7.3a), 53.4% of the demolished sites were replaced by new lowrise residential houses, 7.7% for high-rise apartments, 10.4% for office/commercial buildings, 14.1% for parking, and 8.0% for open spaces.

Table 7.2 The numbers of Kyo-machiya in the city center

Surveys

Kyo-machiya

First survey in 1995–1998

28,566

Surviving

Demolished

Second survey in 2003–2004

25,599

24,635 (86.2%)

3931 (13.8%)

Third survey in 2008–2009

23,047

23,047 (90.0%)

2552 (10.0%)

Note The total number of Kyo-machiya cross all Kyoto city was 47,735 based on the third survey. Also, there were 27,796 Kyomachiya in the city center including Kyo-machiya which were not identified in the previous surveys Source Author’s field survey

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K. Yano

(a) From 1995-1998 through 2003-2004

(b) From 2003-2004 through 2008-2009

Fig. 7.4 Spatial distributions of demolished Kyo-machiya. Source Author’s field survey

Similarly, the third survey reveals that 2552 demolished Kyo-machiya between 2003–2004 and 2008–2009 were replaced to other urban land uses (Table 7.3b). The land was again used for low-rise residential houses (46.9%), high-rise apartments (13.9), office/commercial buildings (4.7%), parking (17.4%), and open spaces (5.4%). The characteristics of these demolished Kyo-machiya would be related to the neighborhood characteristics as well as their locations and previous conditions. Table 7.4 shows the relationships between demolished and vacancy condition. Figure 7.5 shows the spatial distribution of vacancy Kyo-machiya in the first and second surveys. There was a higher rate of demolishment in areas that had a concentration of vacant Kyo-machiya. It is therefore suggested that these clusters of vacant Kyo-machiya are more prone to be demolished. These figures demonstrate the spatial density pattern of vacant Kyo-machiya. Nishijin area along Senbon Street, where is famous for traditional textile, appears to have the highest Kyo-machiya density and vacancy ratios (10.6% in the first survey and 13.2% in the second survey). As to the vacancy Kyo-Machiya (Table 7.4), from the first and second surveys, the demolished ratio of vacancy Kyo-machiya was almost twice as large as the ratio of non-vacancy ones. This trend was the same as the situation from the second and third surveys.

7 Urban Abandonment and Housing Vacancies … Table 7.3 Urban land use after demolished Kyo-machiya

No.

Kyo-machiya

119

Counts

Percentage (%)

(a) From the first survey to the second survey 1

New low-rise residential houses

2

High-rise apartments

301

7.7

3

Office and commercial buildings

410

10.4

4

Multilevel parking garages

13

0.3

5

Parking lots

542

13.8

6

Open spaces

316

8.0

7

Others

117

3.0

8

Unknown

Total

2101

53.4

131

3.3

3931

100.0

(b) From the second survey to the third survey 1

New low-rise residential houses

1198

46.9

2 3

High-rise apartments

354

13.9

Office and commercial buildings

120

4.7

4

Multilevel parking garages

1

0.0

5 6

Parking lots

443

17.4

Open spaces

258

10.1

7

Others

137

5.4

8

Unknown

Total

41

1.6

2552

100.0

Source Author’s field survey

Of course, there are many contributing factors for demolishing Kyo-machiya, for example, the load condition which Kyo-machiya are fronting and the residential attributes. As to the small alleys that are less than 5 m wide, Kyo-machiya fronting on small roads cannot be refurbished under the current Building Standard Act. We should do further research about relationships among demolition, vacancy and the location conditions, and the neighborhood attributions.

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Table 7.4 Relationships between demolished and vacancy Kyo-machiya Surveys

Total

Non-vacancy

Vacancy

Unknown

(a) First survey in 1995–1998 Total

28,566 (100.0%)

26,202 (91.7%)

1566 (5.5%)

798 (2.8%)

Surviving

24,635 (86.2%) (100.0%)

22,784 (92.5%)

1150 (4.7%)

701 (2.8%)

Demolished

3931 (13.8%) (100.0%)

3418 (86.9%)

416 (10.6%)

97 (2.5%)

(b) Second survey in 2003–2004 Total

25,599 (100.0%)

23,248 (90.8%)

1454 (5.7%)

897 (3.5%)

Surviving

23,047 (90.0%) (100.0%)

21,223 (92.1%)

1116 (4.8%)

708 (3.1%)

Demolished

2552 (10.0%) (100.0%)

2025 (79.3%)

338 (13.2%)

189 (7.4%)

Source Author’s field survey

(a) 1995-1998

(b) 2003-2004

Fig. 7.5 Spatial distribution of vacancy Kyo-machiya. Source Author’s field survey

7 Urban Abandonment and Housing Vacancies …

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7.4 Conclusions In this paper, we have demonstrated the situations of Kyo-machiya in Kyoto city, their demolitions, vacancy, and land use after replacements. As a result, using Kyo-machiya GIS, the conclusions are summarized as follows: (1) We can identify the spatial pattern of Kyo-machiya in the Kyoto city. (2) There has been a recent, rapid decrease in the number of Kyo-machiya due to ongoing urban development and property modifications. The decreasing ratio is about 2.4% per annum after the late 1990s. (3) There was a higher rate of demolishment in areas that had a concentration of vacant Kyo-machiya. After Kyo-machiya demolished, the lands are replaced by new low-rise residential houses, high-rise apartments, office/commercial buildings, parking, and open spaces. The three Kyo-machiya community surveys have enabled to build a monitoring system for Kyo-machiya, which reveals the current condition of these structures throughout Kyoto city. Furthermore, we can visualize what type of changes the Kyomachiya had undergone since the mid-1990s. Based on the field surveys, we have illustrated changes within the urban landscape of Kyoto using Virtual Kyoto as a historical virtual geographic environment (Seto et al. 2010). Moreover, this system can also serve as a practical tool in urban planning with Kyo-machiya. For this purpose, an industry–government–academia link has been established to facilitate community rebuilding in Kyoto by positive use of Kyomachiya as a method. Acknowledgements The author wishes to thank the Kyoto city government and NPO Kyo-machiya revitalization study group, for their cooperation in allowing us access to results of the Kyo-machiya surveys. This research project has been financially supported by the twenty-first century COE Program 2002–2006 (Kyoto Art Entertainment Innovation Research), the Global COE Program 2007–2011 (Digital Humanities Center for Japanese Arts and Cultures), Academic Frontier Project 2005–2009 (Disaster Mitigation of Urban Cultural Heritage) by MEXT. This paper is based on Seto et al. (2010) and revised and added as to the vacancy situation. This research was financially supported by JSPS Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Project number 15H03276, PI’s Yoshimichi Yui at Hiroshima University.

References Hanaoka K, Nakaya T, Yano K, Isoda Y (2009) Analysis of the determinants of Kyomachiya (traditional wooden townhouse) demolitions in Nishijin district, Kyoto. Geogr Rev Jpn 82(3):227–242 Iizuka T, Matsumoto A, Seto T, Yano K (2009) GIS-based monitoring systems for Kyo-machiya in Kyoto City. In: 22nd CIPA Symposium Kyoto Center for Community Collaboration (2008) Machiya revival in Kyoto. Mitsumura Suiko Shoin, Kyoto Kyoto City (2010) Third Kyo-machiya community-building survey. http://www.city.kyoto.lg.jp/ tokei/page/0000089608.html. Accessed 1 Sept 2018

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Matsumoto A, Iizuka T, Seto T, Yano K (2011) The application of GIS in Kyo-ma chiya community survey. In: Yano K, Nakaya T, Kawasumi T, Tanaka S (eds) Historical GIS of Kytoto. Nakanishiya, pp 297–306 Matsumoto A, Iizuka T, Seto T, Yano K (2013) The application of GIS in Kyo-machiya community building surveys. In: Yano K, Nakaya T, Kawasumi T, Tanaka S (eds) Historical GIS of Kyoto. Nakanishiya Shuppan, Kyoto, pp 297–306 Otani S, Morita T, Sakata K, Takagi M (2007) Research concerned with the mechanism of vacant houses in old town area of Kyoto: a case study in Rokuhara area, Higashiyama Ward. AIJ Kinki Chapter Res Meet 47:97–100 Seto T, Iizuka T, Matsumoto A, Kirimura T, Yano K, Nakaya T, Isoda Y (2010) Transition of urban landscape with Kyo-machiya in virtual Kyoto. In: Proceedings of International Conference of Digital Archives and Digital Humanities 2010 The Kyoto City Landscape Policy (2007) http://www.city.kyoto.lg.jp/tokei/cmsfiles/contents/ 0000062/62129/HP-English.pdf. Accessed 1 Sept 2018 Yano K, Isoda Y, Nakaya T, Kawasumi T, Matsuoka K, Takase Y, Kawahara D, Kawahara N, Inoue M, Tsukamoto A, Kirimura T (2006) Creating virtual time-space of Kyoto. E-J GEO 12–21 Yano K, Nakaya T, Isoda Y (eds) (2007) Virtual Kyoto. Nakanishiya, Kyoto Yano K, Nakaya T, Isoda Y, Takase Y, Kawasumi T, Matsuoka K, Seto T, Kawahara D, Tsukamoto A, Inoue M, Kirimura T (2008) Virtual Kyoto: 4D-GIS comprising spatial and temporal dimensions. J Geogr 117(2):464–478 Yano K, Nakaya T, Isoda Y, Kawasumi T (2009) Virtual Kyoto as 4D-GIS. In: Lin H, Batty M (eds) Virtual geographic environments. Science Press, Beijing, pp 69–87

Chapter 8

A Problem of Vacant Housing in Local Cities: Utsunomiya City, Tochigi Prefecture Case Study Hiroyasu Nishiyama

Abstract This paper takes Utsunomiya City, Tochigi Prefecture, as a case study and, using the exhaustive investigation of vacant housing in the city, describes the distribution of vacant housing within the city and explains its causes. As a result, it has been confirmed that the number and percentage of vacant houses in Utsunomiya City is increasing. This is because along with the widespread use of private cars, the suburbs are becoming centres for living and employment in local cities. Conversely, the city centre is losing its appeal as a place to live and work in. People living in the city centre use cars to drive to the suburbs in order to buy groceries. As the suburbs prosper, the city centre loses its charm, accelerating the increase in vacant housing in built-up areas. The increase of vacant housing in built-up areas is hollowing the city centre and its surrounds. The city is decaying from its core. This is the problem of local city vacant housing. Keywords Local city · Suburbanisation · Decline of central urban areas · Exhaustive investigation of vacant housing · Utsunomiya City

8.1 Introduction 8.1.1 Research Background and Objectives The increase in vacant housing in Japan is generally believed to be caused by its continuously decreasing population. Rapid urbanisation occurred after the population increase in post-war Japan and citizens (predominantly the baby boomers of 1947–1949) becoming homeowners from the late 1960s to the 1980s. In recent years, however, the number of young people joining the ranks of homeowners is decreasing: more people are choosing to remain single, and fewer people are choosing to buy houses. At the same time, in an effort to stimulate the economy, the government has H. Nishiyama (B) Faculty of City Life Studies, Utsunomiya Kyowa University, Utsunomiya, Japan e-mail: [email protected] © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 T. Kubo and Y. Yui (eds.), The Rise in Vacant Housing in Post-growth Japan, Advances in Geographical and Environmental Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-7920-8_8

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been encouraging new housing construction. Consequently, Japan now has a surplus of housing and a growing number of vacant houses (Hirayama 2011). Hirayama (2011) identifies the macro-factors of population movement and the housing system as reasons for the increase in vacant housing. In addition, others cite personal and regional causes. Kubo et al. (2013) identify several factors based on interview surveys: (1) ageing and inheritance related factors, (2) economic factors, (3) bureaucratic problems, (4) regional issues, and (5) other reasons. Kubo (2015) adds that the owners of vacant houses are reluctant to demolish the sites of their ancestral altars and, in many cases, their own birthplaces. That is to say, there are emotional problems associated with the maintenance and demolition of vacant housing (see details in Chaps. 1 and 10 of the book and Abe et al. 2018). The vacant housing situation varies by region (Nishiyama 2014). The vacant housing problem was once associated with the depopulation of rural areas (Yui et al. 2014); however, the vacant housing situation now looks to be an even bigger problem for suburbs. The large number of people born between 1947 and 1949 living in suburban areas had a big impact on the urbanisation of metropolitan suburban areas. Currently, these people are senior citizens over the age of 65. In the next ten years, when they become late elderly people (over 75 years old), there could be a dramatic increase in suburban vacant housing (Kubo 2014). However, the vacant housing problem is not only the result of macro-factors such as Japan’s dwindling population and the housing system, but also region-specific problems. The vacant housing problem has become the focus of media attention, and there is now a growing public concern about the matter. In addition, national and local governments are conducting surveys and began to work actively to reform the legal system to address this issue. However, there is a lack of research into the problem from the spatial and regional perspectives, in addition to an insistence that the problem exists throughout Japan, when in fact that this may not necessarily be the case. The problem of vacant housing differs depending on whether the area in question is rural or urban. It also depends on the size of the city. Furthermore, the problem can vary within the city itself. With this in mind, this study takes Utsunomiya City, Tochigi Prefecture, as a case study with an exhaustive investigation of vacant housing in the city to describe this issue within this city and explain its causes.

8.1.2 Method This research relies largely on data collected in the survey ‘Utsunomiya City Vacant Housing Survey’ conducted by Utsunomiya City in 2013. In 2014, Utsunomiya City enacted the ‘Utsunomiya City Vacant Housing Proper Management and Effective Use Ordinance’. The 2013 survey was a preliminary investigation carried out to ensure the 2014 ordinance’s enactment. The ‘Utsunomiya City Vacant Housing Survey’ was carried out in three steps.

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First, the faucet contract records of Utsunomiya City’s Waterworks Bureau and the Building Register1 were entered into the GIS. Locations that had both a connection to the water supply but no existing contract with the water company and were not listed as occupied housing on the building register were treated as vacant housing for the purpose of this investigation. This identified 8119 locations in the city, excluding vacant apartments or condominium accommodation. An on-site survey conducted in May and June of 2013 led to the addition of 509 vacant detached houses, bringing the total number of vacant houses to 8628. The ‘Vacant Housing Classification Criterion’ (the criterion Utsunomiya City uses to classify houses as vacant) was used as the standard for this investigation, resulting in 4635 houses certified as vacant. A field survey of these locations was carried out, and the state of disrepair was assessed according to a predetermined checklist.

8.2 Utsunomiya City Profile 8.2.1 City Profile Utsunomiya City, Tochigi Prefecture, is located in the northern part of the Kanto Plain, approximately 100 km north of Tokyo. Originally, Utsunomiya City developed into the Japanese equivalent of a cathedral town, with Futaarayama Shrine as its centre (Fig. 8.1). As a hub of land transport, it developed as a castle town in the middle ages. At present, it serves as the capital of Tochigi Prefecture. According to the Statistics Bureau of Japan’s ‘2010 Population Census of Japan’, Utsunomiya City had a population of 511,739 people. Using the Tohoku bullet train, it takes around 50 min to reach Tokyo Station. Generally speaking, Utsunomiya’s city centre spans the area between the JR Utsunomiya Station and the Tobu Utsunomiya Station. The majority of the city centre is either flat or set on gentle slopes. Thus, the city centre is expanding in four directions: north-east, north-west, south-east, and south-west. Pre-war Utsunomiya City had a radius of about 1–2 km, with Futaarayama Shrine at its centre. Modern-day Utsunomiya City took its current form after the war. The population of Utsunomiya City increased by 120,000 people between 1965 and 1980, and the city underwent rapid urban development at this time (Nishiyama 2013). A ring road around Utsunomiya City was constructed, along with radial roads that connect the ring road to the city centre. A feature of Utsunomiya’s traffic system is that bridges were built where the radial roads and the ring road intersect, alleviating congestion. For this reason, Utsunomiya’s ring road is an indispensable asset. Utsunomiya City is the central industrial city of the North Kanto industrial region, with large-scale industrial zones such as the Utsunomiya industrial zone (completed in 1966) and the Kiyohara industrial zone (completed in 1976) within the city itself. 1 Building owners and building applications, building age, floor surface area, building specifications,

and so on.

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Fig. 8.1 Location of Utsunomiya City

In particular, the Kiyohara industrial zone is the largest inland industrial zone in the country (The City Office of Utsunomiya 1992), with an area of 387.6 ha and 30,226 employees (2012).2 Because Utsunomiya City is largely flat, there is ample space for urban expansion. Thus, the city has not only residential areas, but also large-scale shopping centres and supermarkets in the city’s suburbs. On the other hand, monthly and pay-per-use car parks are common in the city centre3 (Fig. 8.2). At one time, there were no less than five department stores in the city centre, but now there is only one department 2 The

data are available from http://www1.ocn.ne.jp/~kiyohaip. Japan, in principle, cars cannot be parked on public roads by order of the Road Traffic Act. For this reason, there are many paid parking lots.

3 In

8 A Problem of Vacant Housing in Local Cities …

127

Fig. 8.2 Pay-as-you-use car parks in the city centre. Source Nishiyama photographed in 2014 Fig. 8.3 Change of the population by distance zones. Source Created based on Population Census of Japan (2005) and (2010)

store due to withdrawal and relocation to outside locations. Furthermore, the once lively shopping arcades are now near deserted, and there are a noticeable number of vacant stores. Thus, the city centre’s vibrancy is disappearing. At the same time, the population continues to flow out into the suburbs. Figure 8.3 shows the population at 2-kmradius points from Futaarayama Shrine. There is hardly any population increase in the 0–2 and 2–4-km zones. On the other hand, in the area beyond 4 km from the centre, whilst large-scale residential development continued since 2000, small-scale residential development and rural–urban fringes are also common (Nishiyama 2013). The resulted in a significant population increase in the area 4 or more kilometres from the centre. In particular, the population increased by 10% in the area 6–8 km from the city centre.

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H. Nishiyama

Table 8.1 Type of housing Utsunomiya City Detached house owners

Japan

Metropolitan areas

99,850

52.2%

24,129,200

50.0%

5,706,300

38.0%

Condominium owners

6180

3.2%

4,658,100

9.6%

2,442,700

16.2%

Owned privately (detached house)

8190

4.3%

1,666,300

3.5%

370,300

2.5%

55,590

29.1%

11,014,700

22.8%

4,122,300

27.4%

Social housing

5880

3.1%

2,088,200

4.3%

940,700

6.3%

Issued houses

7090

3.7%

1,371,200

2.8%

461,000

3.1%

Owned privately (apartment house)

Others Total

8450

4.4%

3,353,300

6.9%

993,000

6.6%

191,230

100.0%

48,281,000

100.0%

15,036,300

100.0%

Source Created based on Housing and Land Survey (2008)

8.2.2 Residential Property of Utsunomiya City Compared with other areas, a special feature of Utsunomiya City is its comparatively large number of detached houses and apartment housing (Table 8.1). Overall, condominiums are located in densely populated, metropolitan areas where land prices are relatively high. However, Utsunomiya City has fewer condominiums than core cities of comparable size do.4 The percentage of condominium owners is lower than that of other prefecture capitals and comparatively sized cities in North Kanto, such as Mito City (5.5%), Maebashi City (2.8%), Takasaki City (2.5%), and so on, according to the ‘Housing and Land Survey 2008’ conducted by the Statistics Bureau of Japan. Utsunomiya’s extensive flat land explains the high number of detached house owners.

4 This

is one category of the Japanese urban system. The amount of control a city has over official decisions (welfare and hygiene, education, urban planning, etc.) depends on this classification. A core city (ordinance-designated city) can make many official decisions. In other words, it has more power than other small-medium size cities and more autonomy over its urban control. In addition, it is a condition that the city has a population of more than 200,000 people.

8 A Problem of Vacant Housing in Local Cities …

129

Table 8.2 How to obtain housing Utsunomiya Purchased newly built houses

Core cities

Japan

Metropolitan areas

18,180

16.3%

769,220

19.9%

6,071,000

20.0% 2,644,500

31.9%

Used houses

8870

7.9%

518,220

13.4%

3,847,100

12.7% 1,342,400

16.2%

Newly built

46,380

41.5% 1,392,940

36.1%

9,856,500

32.5% 1,907,600

23.0%

Rebuilt

29,340

26.3%

754,860

19.5%

6,529,600

21.5% 1,672,800

20.2%

5420

4.9%

295,060

7.6%

2,881,100

9.5%

436,000

5.3%

3.2%

132,880

3.4%

1,130,800

3.7%

276,400

3.3%

Acquired by inheritance or grant Others Total

3540 111,730

100.0% 3,863,180 100.0% 30,316,100 100.0% 8,279,700 100.0%

Source Created based on Housing and Land Survey (2008)

We next look at how people acquire housing in Utsunomiya City. According to the 2008 Housing Land Survey, few people bought second-hand housing (Table 8.2). Furthermore, the number of inherited properties5 was also low. On the other hand, the most common method of housing acquisition was through new home building, which accounted for more than 40% of the total figure. In Japan, real estate agents build houses (including condominiums) to sell. They search for buyers after completing construction. This is the main method of house buying in urban areas with high land prices because real estate agents can buy large areas of land and build prespecified housing and thus keep costs to a minimum. The other option is for a potential homeowner to buy land and build a home by contracting the work to a construction company. Compared with other large cities and the country overall, the number of new homes in Utsunomiya City is high. Purchasing land and building a house and demolishing old buildings and building a new house are particularly popular methods of house acquisition in Utsunomiya City compared to other areas. It is Utsunomiya City highly possible that this explains why vacant housing is not used as second-hand housing.

5 In Japan, the pre-war principle that the eldest son inherits the birthplace remains. This tendency is

more common in rural areas.

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H. Nishiyama

8.3 The Current Vacant Housing Situation in Utsunomiya City 8.3.1 The Current Vacant Housing Situation According to the 2013 Housing Land Survey, Utsunomiya City has 39,800 vacant houses, representing 15.9% of the total housing units (Fig. 8.4). These vacancy rates include apartment-style accommodation; the number of vacant detached houses in Utsunomiya City is 10,800 units. That is to say, 8.2% of detached houses are vacant. In terms of changes, there was a dramatic increase in the number of vacant houses from 1993 to 2003. During the economic boom around 1990, the city witnessed a sudden rush of rental accommodation construction, causing a sudden and steep increase in the supply of housing. Whilst this trend reversed during 2003–2008, from 2008 to 2013, there has been another two-point increase in supply. Figure 8.5 compares the vacant housing situation in Utsunomiya City to that of other cities. The percentage under each region in Fig. 8.5 indicates the rates of vacant housing. The figure shows that Utsunomiya’s is higher than both the country overall and other major metropolitan areas in Kanto. However, in terms of the classification of vacant housing, 68.4% (21,840 units) is ‘rental housing’, which is a high proportion. In contrast, ‘other classification’6 accounts for 24.2% (7740 units), which is relatively low. However, Tochigi Prefecture contains many second homes because the resorts of Nasu and Nikko contain many holiday villas. Yoneyama (2012) warns that putting the external diseconomies problem into the ‘other classification’ category could become

45

thousand house

%

18.0

40

16.0

35

14.0

30

12.0

25

10.0

20

8.0

15

6.0

10

4.0

5

2.0

The number of vacant Housing Ratio of Vacant housing in Utsunomiya Ratio of Vacant housing in Japan

0.0

0 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

Fig. 8.4 Changes in the number of vacant housing in Utsunomiya. Source Created based on Housing and Land Survey (2013) 6 ‘Other

classification’ refers to vacant houses that do not fall under either ‘second housing’, ‘for rent’, or ‘for sale’. They include many properties that are ‘of no use’ and, if left untended, are highly likely to have a negative effect on the environment.

8 A Problem of Vacant Housing in Local Cities …

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a serious issue. That is to say that whilst Utsunomiya City’s vacant housing rate is high at 15.9%, there are few vacant houses in the ‘other classification’. Therefore, as Yoneyama (2012) points out, there are few external diseconomies at this time.7

8.3.2 The Distribution of Vacant Housing in Utsunomiya City Figure 8.6 shows the distribution of vacant houses for the entire Utsunomiya City area. The black spots in Fig. 8.6 indicate vacant houses. Figure 8.6 gives the impression that vacant houses are spread across the entire area. Additionally, urbanisation promotion areas were established in Japanese urban areas to promote planned land use. In most urbanisation promotion areas, space is divided into areas that promote development activities (‘urbanisation promotion areas’) and areas that suppress development (‘urbanisation control areas’). Thus, it is common to find not only offices and shops, but also housing, in city centres. It is difficult to interpret the distribution of vacant housing by looking at Fig. 8.6, so a 500-m square mesh was layered over the vacant houses. In other words, it is now possible to count the number of vacant houses in each 500 m square. Furthermore, the data were compared with the urban area of Utsunomiya City in 1970 (DID), before the city experienced rapid expansion (DID8 1970). The result shows that the areas with many vacant houses according to the 1970 DID boundaries were practically the same as today. In this paper, the pre-1970 urbanised area (DID 1970) is hereafter

Utsunomiya Ratio of Vacant housing 15.9 Tochigi prefecture Ratio of Vacant housing 16.3 Major Metropolitan Areas Ratio of Vacant housing 11.4 Japan Ratio of Vacant housing 13.5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% As second dwellings

For rent

For sale

Others

Fig. 8.5 Ratio of vacant housing by their conditions. Source Created based on Housing and Land Survey (2008)

7 According

to Kubo (2014), several regional problems result from vacant housing: illegal waste dumping, deterioration in security, injuries caused by collapse and damage, insufficient disaster prevention, mental burden on local residents, reduced tax revenue, and so on. 8 We also established the Densely Inhabited District (DID) which is designated when population density exceeded 4000/km2 in a unit and its neighbouring units form areas with more than 5000 inhabitants (Abe et al. 2018, p. 145).

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Fig. 8.6 Distribution of vacant houses for the entire Utsunomiya. Source Created based on Vacant Housing data provided by Utsunomiya City and Population Census of Japan (2010)

referred to as the city centre, and the areas that developed after 1970 are referred to as suburbs. Figure 8.7 shows the defined periods and boundaries determined by DID, as well as the number and percentage of vacant houses in each. The rate of vacant houses increases in line with how long ago the area urbanised. Especially in areas that urbanised before 1970 (areas that became DID in 1960 or between 1960 and 1970), the rate of vacant houses increases sharply. This data indicate that an increase in vacant housing occurs 40–50 years after an area first urbanised. In Japan, getting

133

600

3.0

400

2.0

200

1.0

0

0.0 Non-DID

4.0

1990-2010

800

1980-90

5.0

1970-80

1,000

1960-70

6.0

1960

1,200

Vacant housing built in year The ratio of Vacant housing

The number of vacant housing

8 A Problem of Vacant Housing in Local Cities …

Unknown 1990-2012 1980-1989 1970-1979

Areas that became DID

Fig. 8.7 Defined periods and boundaries determined by DID and the number and percentage of vacant houses. Source Vacant Housing data provided by Utsunomiya City

married, starting a family, and becoming a homeowner usually happens from the late 20s to the early 40s. In the case of someone who becomes a homeowner at the age of 35, the person will be 80 years old after living in the same house for 45 years. Although there are always individual differences, it is not unusual to require care on reaching the age of 80. Relatives may provide this care, or the person may move into a care facility. Of course, some people do not live this long. In Japan, it is rare to move after having bought a house. For this reason, cities age along with their residents. In recent years, the Japanese traditional family is disappearing and inheriting a house is uncommon. Thus, as a city ages, the number of vacant houses increases.

8.4 Regional Differences in Vacant Housing in Utsunomiya City The data confirm the existence of many vacant houses in the central area of Utsunomiya City. This section discusses the relationships among the area’s elderly, the age of housing, the state of the urban infrastructure, and vacant housing.

8.4.1 The Relationship Between Ageing and Vacant Housing According to an interview survey conducted by Yui et al. (2014) in the suburban residential district of Kure City, Hiroshima Prefecture, the main reason for vacant houses was ‘death of the owners’, followed by ‘moving to another place’ and ‘hos-

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pitalisation/ moving into care’. As previously mentioned, the nuclear family became increasingly more common after the war, and less common for children to inherit the homes in which they grew up. Thus, there could very well be a strong link between a resident’s life stage and the incidence of house vacancies. This section considers the connection between ageing and the vacant housing situation in Utsunomiya City. Figure 8.8 shows the distribution of population over the age of 65 and vacant houses within a 500 m mesh grid. There are many residents over the age of 65 in the central and surrounding area. Additionally, the number of vacant houses is increasing in these areas. Esojima district (in the southern part of the city), Suzumenomiya district, and Mine district (on the east side of JR Utsunomiya station) all urbanised prior to 1970, have a high population of over 65, and a high number of vacant houses. In other words, areas with a high number of residents over the age of 65 also have a high number of vacant houses. Figure 8.9 shows the ratio of houses to vacant houses and the population over 65 as a percentage of the entire population per 500 m grid square. It also shows the relationship between the two. As Fig. 8.9 shows, as the rate of residents over 65 increases, the number of vacant houses increases. This is particularly the case in areas in which the over 65 population exceeds 30%. Thus, we see a very close relationship between the over 65 population and the number of vacant houses.

8.4.2 The Relationship Between Detached House Building and Vacant Housing As with the age of residents, there is a strong connection between the age of a building and vacant houses because in post-war Japan, especially in urban areas, it was common to start a family and buy a house. In general, the price of a new house is about five times that of a year’s salary. Though this depends on the individual’s salary, a homeowner usually takes out a loan and pays it off within twenty years. Moving from one previously owned home to another, as in the USA, is unusual in Japan. Most people buy houses and live there for the remainder of their lives. Thus, houses and their occupants age together. This section explains the connection between the age of buildings and vacant housing. First, we will examine the relationship between the age of detached houses and vacant housing. Figure 8.10 shows vacant houses by generation and the ratio of vacant houses to all detached houses in Utsunomiya City. First, looking at the number of vacant houses by generation shows that there are more vacant houses built between 1970 and 1974 than for any other period. We see an especially high number of vacant houses built between 1965 and 1979. There are 2492 vacant houses built in this period, representing 53.8% of all the houses built at that time. In other words, more than half of the houses built in the 15-year period from 1965 to 1979 are now vacant.

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Fig. 8.8 Number of vacant housing and people of 65 years old or more. Source Created based on Vacant Housing data provided by Utsunomiya City and Population Census of Japan (2010)

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Fig. 8.9 Relationship between population of 65 years old or more and vacant houses in Utsunomiya. Source Created based on Vacant Housing data provided by Utsunomiya City and Population Census of Japan (2010) 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0

The number of vacant housing Ratio of Vacant housing

1,000 800 600 400 200

2000-04

2005-10

1995-99

1990-94

1980-84

1985-89

1975-79

1970-74

1960-64

1965-69

-1944

0 1945-59

The numberof vacant housing

1,200

Ratio of Vacant housing (%)

Fig. 8.10 Vacant houses divided by generation and the ratio of vacant houses to all detached houses in Utsunomiya. Source Vacant Housing data provided by Utsunomiya City

Vacant housing built in year

Next, we look at the ratio of detached houses to vacant houses for each generation. We can infer from this figure that as buildings get older, the vacancy rate increases. In particular, the vacancy rate of houses built from the time of the end of the Second World War to around 1974 is high. On the other hand, houses built before 1944 have a low vacancy rate. We can infer that this low vacancy rate occurs because these houses were usually passed on as an inheritance. Finally, we discuss the relationship between building age and vacant housing. Figure 8.10 illustrates the particularly high rate of vacant housing for houses built before 1974. Figure 8.11 shows the houses built before 1974 and vacant houses within the 500 m grid mesh. The distribution of houses built before 1974 is concentrated in the city centre and its surrounding areas of Esojima district, Suzumenomiya district, and Mine district. There are also a high number of vacant houses in these areas.

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Fig. 8.11 Number of houses built before 1974 and vacant houses in Utsunomiya. Source Vacant Housing data provided by Utsunomiya City

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Fig. 8.12 Relationship between houses built before 1974 and vacant houses in Utsunomiya. Source Vacant Housing data provided by Utsunomiya City

Figure 8.12 shows the relationship between houses built before 1974 and vacant housing as a graph. As the percentage of detached houses built before 1974 rises, as does the percentage of vacant housing. That is to say, we can see a trend in which areas with old houses also have many vacant houses.

8.4.3 The Relationship Between Urban Development (Built Environment) and Vacant Housing This section discusses the relationships among the width of roads on which houses are located, land readjustment, large scale residential area development of more than 10 ha, and vacant houses.

8.4.3.1

Japanese Urban Planning/Building Legislation

Roads that fail to conform to the Building Standard Law, which regulates zoning, are one reason for the incidence of ageing and vacant housing. Using Arakawa district, Tokyo as an example, Naganuma (2003) states that because the area has many roads of less than 4 m in width, it is not possible to rebuild houses, which encourages younger generations to move elsewhere and causes the population to age. Likewise, Miike (2014) offers the example of four districts in Kumamoto City and shows the connection between roads that serve houses and the vacant housing situation. Urban areas of Japan adopted the Building Standard Law, which provides minimum requirements for the use of a site and structure of a building. Since Japan

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has many wooden houses, it is necessary to prevent fires from spreading to other buildings. In addition, since there are many natural disasters such as earthquakes and typhoons, it is necessary to ensure evacuation routes. Therefore, the Building Standard Law specifies that roads must be more than 4 m in width to avoid disasters. In other words, it is not possible to build houses on roads of less than 4 m in width, since the Building Standard Law does not recognise these ‘roads’. Furthermore, the law on residential city planning areas states that houses must be 2 m, or in some cases 3 m, from the road.9 Although this law has existed since 1938, it does not apply to houses built before 1938, nor does it apply to houses located outside of the urban planning area built after 1938. The law also applies only to pre-war urban planning areas that were relatively large in scale. Since the pre-war city area was small, the urban planning area was also small. That is to say, this criterion does not apply to residential construction outside the city planning area. Much of Utsunomiya City was destroyed by fires due to US air raids in 1945. After the war, land readjustment took place in the destroyed areas. Consequently, the roads in these areas became straight and were widened. On the other hand, roads remained narrow and unimproved in areas unaffected by the air raids.

8.4.3.2

The Relationship of Road Width and Vacant Housing

The ‘Utsunomiya City Vacant House Survey’ also studied the width of roads facing vacant houses and found 227 vacant houses facing roads less than 2 m wide, 1857 vacant houses facing roads between 2 and 4 m wide, and 2551 vacant houses facing roads more than 4 m wide. Figure 8.13 (left) shows the residential area adjacent to Tobu Utsunomiya Station. This area developed as an unplanned residential area during the pre-war period of urbanisation and therefore has many roads less than 4 m wide. From such roads, a one-metre path leads to one or several houses. Figure 8.13 (right) shows a photograph of the residential area located approximately 1 km west of Tobu Utsunomiya Station urbanised in the Second World War era. The streets here are linear, but there are many alleyways of 1–2 m wide, and vacant houses are visible throughout. Figure 8.14 shows the rate of narrow roads10 per block in the urban area and the distribution of vacant houses in the same boundaries. There is a high rate of narrow roads in the city centre. Due to the destruction of the air raids and the subsequent land readjustment projects, the roads are wide and well-planned compared to those of other areas. Many land readjustment projects were implemented in suburban areas, as well as many privately developed, large-scale planned residential areas. Thus, there are few roads that are less than 4 m wide. On the other hand, in areas that escaped the 9 Utsunomiya City sets the city planning area in 1927. The same kind of law passed in 1919, but it did

not designate urban areas, and urban control zones did not exist, unlike in the current City Planning Act. Therefore, laws restricting sprawl did not exist until the City Planning Law amendment of 1968. 10 The narrow road rate refers to the percentage of roads less than 4 m wide within a defined boundary.

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bombing raids, many of the narrow and inconsistent pre-war roads remain. Looking at the rate of narrow roads and the rate of vacant housing distribution, we can see that the areas with high rates of each generally overlap. Figure 8.15 shows the relationship between the rate of narrow roads and the rate of vacant houses and illustrates the relationship between the two. However, Fig. 8.14 shows that in the areas west of Tobu Utsunomiya Station and around Minami Utsunomiya Station, whilst the rate of narrow roads is not particularly high, the rate of vacant houses is. Land readjustment projects were either carried out in these areas before the war, or they were planned residential areas developed prior to the war. Based on these results, we cannot conclude that there is a strong relationship between the rate of narrow roads and the rate of vacant houses. Rather, it seems that there is a strong connection between the timing of urbanisation and the rate of vacant housing.

8.4.3.3

The Relationship Between Planned Development and Vacant Housing

Finally, the difference in the vacancy rates of houses in areas that do not have a planned infrastructure and areas that do such as the land readjustment projects will be considered. As will be discussed later, many people in Utsunomiya City use cars to move around. For this reason, locations that have a high level of convenience for motorists are chosen. The first feature of a location convenient for car usage is ease of access and close proximity to the city’s ring and radial roads. The second is a wide road in front of the house. In other words, there is a strong preference for residential areas with planned streets.

Fig. 8.13 Narrow path and vacant houses. Source Nishiyama photographed in 2014

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Fig. 8.14 Ratio of narrow roads in the urban area and vacant houses. Source Vacant Housing data and Urban Planning data provided by Utsunomiya City

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Fig. 8.15 Relationship between the rate of narrow roads and the rate of vacant houses. Source Vacant Housing data and Urban Planning data provided by Utsunomiya City

Table 8.3 shows development permits11 for development areas of more than 10 ha for residential areas and land readjustment project sites separated by generation. For the former, because there was a lack of development permits dated prior to 1969, records until 1979 are used. The ratio of vacant houses to all houses in each of the four areas is summarised in Table 8.3. According to this result, the rate of vacant houses is growing in areas that have not undergone urban development. On one hand, in the case of land readjustment and large-scale residential development areas, the rate of vacant houses is low. From this result, it can be said that infrastructure affects the amount of vacant housing. Having said this, taking the Yosai land readjustment project’s boundaries whose construction was completed in the 1930s (north side of Minami Utsunomiya Station) as an example, the rate of vacant housing is in the range of 7% higher. There are many overlapping factors, such as proximity to the city centre and the highway, that determine the number of vacant houses. Thus, it should be noted that urban infrastructure development is not necessarily the only influential factor.

8.5 The Problem of Vacant Housing in Local Cities The results so far confirm that the number and percentage of vacant houses in Utsunomiya City is increasing. This section will look at why vacant housing is increasing and the types of problems that may arise due to this increase. 11 In Japan, when developing an area of more than 1000 m2

(in some cases, over 500 m2 ), developers must obtain permission from the government. Prior to the New City Planning Law of 1968, development proceeded according to the old Residential Construction Business Law. For the purposes of this research, the term development permit refers to both.

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Table 8.3 Relationship between planned development and vacant housing Construction in year or areas that became DID

Detached housing

Vacant housing

The ratio of vacant housing (%)

Permission for development activity areas

1979-

8607

253

2.9

Land readjustment areas

1969-

5185

204

3.9

Non-planned development areas

1969-

39012

1895

4.9

Source Vacant Housing data and Urban Planning data provided by Utsunomiya City

8.5.1 The Problem of Second-Hand Housing Distribution Of all the factors responsible for the increase in vacant housing in the built-up areas of Utsunomiya City, the number one reason is the house ageing problem. As Sect. 8.4 explains, many of the vacant houses are old. Detached houses built long ago are common in built-up areas. As mentioned before, Japanese wooden housing becomes obsolete within about thirty years.12 Houses built between the end of the Second World War and 1979 perform particularly poorly. Therefore, they cannot meet current residential needs at all. Whilst there are renovation methods available, few contractors are skilled in the task of renovation. Information about second-hand housing is not communicated effectively. Buyers do not trust second-hand housing, whilst new homes enjoy a high level of consumer confidence. Thus, there are emotional and institutional problems affecting the secondary housing market. When a vacant house is available for sale, it does not find a buyer. Furthermore, vacant houses in the builtup areas of Utsunomiya City have small surface areas (Nishiyama 2014). Therefore, even with a willingness to sell, a sale is not possible due to the insufficient width of the road it faces. Furthermore, not only in built-up areas, but also throughout Utsunomiya City, the secondary housing market failed to flourish, which is one reason that houses remain vacant. As Sect. 8.2 explains, a characteristic of Utsunomiya’s housing market is that demand for new detached housing is higher than it is elsewhere, which leads to the assumption that the secondary housing market is small. In an interview with the author,13 a local real estate appraiser cited following problem: ‘There are not many used houses available on the market in Utsunomiya City and Tochigi Prefecture, and 12 Improved building technology in recent years has lengthened building life. Owners can also ensure longevity through proper maintenance. Thus, it is untrue that all houses in Japan last no longer than 30 years. 13 An interview of approximately two hours in length was conducted in March 2015.

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those that are available were all constructed long ago and do not match the needs of the buyer’. For this reason, few businesses are willing to commit to the secondary housing market and therefore the market will never flourish. As stated above, the secondary housing market in city centres does not function, which is one of the reasons for the increase in vacant housing. It is true that an increase in new housing prices due to rising land prices and construction costs encouraged an active secondary housing market centred around used condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area; however, land in other cities is inexpensive to start with. Rather than buying a used house that does not meet one’s needs in an urban area with high land prices, it is cheaper to buy a new house in the suburbs where land prices are low. The price of a used house does not include costs such as maintenance, which will inevitably be necessary. In recent years, concerned about the increase in vacant housing, the government tried to encourage buyers to purchase existing houses. However, this option is only attractive option in metropolitan areas where house prices are high. In other cities, the scrap and build housing market have become the norm. So long as there is new residential development in local cities, the increase in the number of vacant houses seems likely to continue.

8.5.2 The Decline in the Local City’s Centre and the Development of the Suburbs In the city centre, the reason for the increase in vacant housing can be found in its lifestyle and layout. In metropolitan areas, public transportation developed with the railway at its centre. Additionally, due to the large number of people who live in metropolitan areas, these areas contain many convenient facilities such as supermarkets. Thus, many of these residents can live without a car. Many jobs are centrally located in metropolitan areas. Therefore, proximity to the centre is a priority in housing acquisition, which is why demand for a property increases the closer its location is to the area’s centre. On the other hand, attractive facilities such as department stores have been disappearing from other city centres since 1990. Likewise, banks and securities companies that opened many branches in the 1970s were forced to consolidate branches after the economy went into recession in 1990. Official facilities and places where many people gather, such as general hospitals, city halls, and prefectural offices, also relocated to suburban locations. Unlike metropolitan areas, the city centre has lost its ability to attract residents. What of the suburbs? Highways have been established in the suburbs, and the roads in the suburbs of Utsunomiya City are still being improved even today. Travel by car is becoming increasingly convenient in local cities. According to the 2010 census, more than 60% of those aged 15 or older who commute to work or school in Utsunomiya City do so by car. Of course, high school students cannot drive cars to school, so the percentage of people who drive to work must be even higher.

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Additionally, residents use cars not only for commuting, but also for leisure and shopping. This kind of car-dependent lifestyle is not unique to Utsunomiya City; it is common to many non-metropolitan areas. As Sect. 8.2 discussed, Utsunomiya City’s centre and suburbs are connected by ring and radial roads. Whilst there is public transportation in the form of buses and trains, because all lines connect the suburbs with the centre, the number of destinations is limited. Moreover, traffic congestion affects the bus route scheduling and timing. Bus operators have come to rely on financial assistance from the government and cannot be expected to expand business or engage in effective marketing efforts. In other words, public transportation is losing customers and is becoming less convenient every day. On the other hand, residents using a car and the city’s radial and ring roads can travel anywhere. Shops such as supermarkets are located where the radial roads and ring roads intersect. Whilst the city centre does have shops, there are a limited number of locations to buy groceries and the like. In brief, rather than living in a built-up urban area with high land prices, it is more convenient to live in the suburbs. However, in Utsunomiya City, the suburbs contain several industrial zones. Thus, employment is not restricted to the city centre. From 1990 onwards, some cases shops and offices went out of business, whilst others relocated to the suburbs. Thus, the city centre now has reduced appeal as an area for employment, services, and retail. Along with the widespread use of private cars, the suburbs are becoming centres for living and employment in cities. Conversely, the city centre is losing its appeal as a place in which to live and work. People living in the city centre use cars to drive to the suburbs to buy groceries. As the suburbs prosper, the city centre loses its charm, accelerating the increase in vacant housing in built-up areas, which is hollowing out the city centre and its surrounds, with the city decaying from its core. This is the problem with vacant housing in city centres. Acknowledgements This research was financially supported by the following KAKENHI: Grantin-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Project number 15H03276, PI’s Yoshimichi Yui at Hiroshima University.

References Abe K, Kubo T, Komaki N (2018) Changes in the Japanese urban system since the 1950s: urbanization, demography and the management function. In: Rozenblat C, Pumain D, Velasquez E (eds) International and transnational perspectives on urban systems. Springer, Singapore, pp 143–163 Hirayama Y (2011) Conditions for city: housing, life and sustainable society. NTT Publishing, Tokyo Housing and Land Survey (2008) Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/stat-search/files?page=1&toukei=00200522. Accessed 27 Jan 2010 Housing and Land Survey (2013) Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/stat-search/files?page=1&toukei=00200522. Accessed 24 Sept 2015

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Kubo T (2014) An increase in vacant housing is not only a problem in rural villages. Geography (Chiri) 59(10):4–11 Kubo T (2015) Geographical housing studies in the Tokyo metropolitan area: changing residential structure after the late 1990s. Kokon-shoin, Tokyo Kubo T, Yui Y, Sakaue H (2013) Increasing vacant housing in the Japanese metropolitan suburbs. Ann Rep Jpn Soc Urbanol 47:183–190 Miike F (2014) Studies of the vacant houses of single-family house in Kumamoto City. Policy Study Kumamoto Univ 5:79–88 Naganuma S (2003) Aging of population and housing renewal in the inner areas of Tokyo. Assoc Jpn Geogr 76(7):522–536 Nishiyama H (2013) Regional structure of Utsunomiya City from the viewpoint of residential characteristics. Ann Rep Urban Reg Econ Stud 13:193–208 Nishiyama H (2014) A problem of vacant houses in local cities: a case study of Utsunomiya city. Geography (Chiri) 59(12):4–10 Population Census of Japan (2005) Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/stat-search/files?page=1&toukei=00200521. Accessed 27 June 2014 Population Census of Japan (2010) Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/stat-search/files?page=1&toukei=00200521. Accessed 11 Dec 2011 The City Office of Utsunomiya (1992) The history of Utsunomiya. The City Office of Utsunomiya Yoneyama H (2012) The truth of the rapid increase in vacant housing: prevent neglect, collapse and dilapidation of the apartment. Nihon Keizai Shimbun Publishing, Tokyo Yui Y, Sugutani M, Kubo T (2014) The housing vacancies in suburbs: a case study of Kure city. Urban Geogr Jpn 9:69–87

Part III

Measures for Revitalizing Cities

Chapter 9

Resolution of Vacant Housing Through Social Business: Kominka Renovation Business by Nakagawa Jyuken Corp Hiroyasu Nishiyama

Abstract This report details business development by Nakagawa Jyuken Corp, which targets the renovation of Kominka in the Kameoka and Nantan city areas of Kyoto Prefecture. Its aim is focused on the growth and revitalization of the regional economy. The company has created a systematic business model, based on experience and know-how, for real estate companies and home builders nationwide. If this program is successful, it could lead to the utilization of vacant houses, as vacant housing is forecasted to dramatically increase in the future. I would like to introduce Nakagawa Jyuken’s business model from a viewpoint that allows it to be seen as the first step toward resolving the vacant housing problem in Japan. Keywords Kominka · Reusing vacant houses · Social business · Nakagawa Jyuken Corp · Kyoto Prefecture

9.1 Introduction The phenomenon of vacant houses has become a social problem. In this context, the research in architecture on the utilization of “Kominka” (Kominka means the traditional Japanese house) has increased. Furthermore, in rural areas, the Kominka has been drawing attention because of influences from government and private sector programs that have increased inbound foreign tourists, emigration to rural areas, the Japanese version of CCRC (Continuing Care Retirement Community), and the vacation rental. Since there are many types of Kominka, we cannot define it as a whole. Its definition must include numerous historically valuable versions, especially the old merchant house, the house of wealthy farmers, or the Samurai residence that includes the use of logs. These logs, which make the structural frame of and even artistic works in the house, are difficult to obtain nowadays. Their use once represented prosperity and the homeowner’s housing preference. H. Nishiyama (B) Faculty of City Life Studies, Utsunomiya Kyowa University, Utsunomiya, Japan e-mail: [email protected] © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 T. Kubo and Y. Yui (eds.), The Rise in Vacant Housing in Post-growth Japan, Advances in Geographical and Environmental Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-7920-8_9

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After Tokyo’s centralization, younger generations began to live in the urban city, along with their family, whereas older generations continued to live in rural areas alone. Once the homeowner expires, and the process of inheritance begins, and the successor(s) either disassemble the house or sell it. Even if the successor does not sell the house, but maintains it because of objections from other relatives or the regional community, the maintenance cost could be a few hundred thousand yen per year. It would become a burden to the successor. Unless the house owner has a strong wish and enough money to maintain the house, it will be left with no residence, and finally rot. The Kominka, which reflects 100 years of history and traditional culture, is slowly disappearing across Japan even at this instance. The diminishing trend nips regional revitalization in the bud in local areas that are undergoing aging and declining population. Therefore, the preservation and utilization of Kominka are necessary to protect the limited number of regional resources and to realize regional revitalization.

9.2 “+ Social” Business by Nakagawa Jyuken Corp 9.2.1 Outline of Kameoka City and Nantan City Nakagawa Jyuken Corp is a small/mid-sized, locally based real estate company in Kameoka city in Kyoto Prefecture. This report is based on my interview with Mr. Nakagawa—representative director of Nakagawa Jyuken—about the Kominka renovation business and on Kominka visits in Kameoka and Nantan on August 28, 2017. Almost all textual material in this report is based on Mr. Nakagawa’s responses, as well as the introductory leaflet How to resolve the regional problem by the social business—Change the rural area by starting from Kameoka city and Nantan city, which was self-published by Nakagawa Jyuken in 2017. Other reference materials were provided by Nakagawa Jyuken. The photographs used in this report were approved by Nakagawa Jyuken. Nakagawa Jyuken was established by Mr. Nakagawa’s father in 1991. It is one of many real estate companies whose main business territory is in the Kameoka and Nantan cities. Both these cities are located close to central Kyoto, and it takes about 20 min to reach Kameoka or 36 min to reach Nantan station from the Kyoto station by JR railway. Furthermore, the automotive access, through the highway, is also convenient; traveling to these cities takes only one hour from the Osaka (Itami) airport even by the local road. This area is home to many tourist hotspots—such as Hozu Valley, famous for its autumnal foliage; riverboat cruises; and so forth—and thus attracts foreign visitors throughout the year. The total population of the two aforementioned cities is around 120,000 (2015 Population Census 2017). However, the population has been declining yearly—2920 in Kameoka and 2069 in Nantan for five years, from 2010 to 2015. Especially, the aging rate (rate of population of over 65 years old) in Nantan city is 33.5% (2015

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Population Census 2017). Kameoka city has a moderate aging rate (26.5%), since it is a bed town (commuter town) for Kyoto city, but aging trends have advanced in new residential areas.

9.2.2 Utilization of Kominka by Social Business To continue business in areas with declining population, choices are limited, such as expanding the business territory to other regions or keeping the business in Kameoka and Nantan cities. It is necessary to build familiarity with the target region in order to operate real estate businesses. Therefore, Nakagawa Jyuken chose to continue its business in Kameoka and Nantan, where they have had a geographical advantage. However, as stated above, the aging trends in both cities have advanced, and population decline has accelerated. Thus, if the real estate company conducts the same business activities as other companies of the industries in this region, they would face severe competition, and even fail in the near future. To expand their business, the company should challenge the industry with new business programs that could break the norms of the past real estate industry. That is, they should differentiate from other companies. The core value or mission of a company should be clear for successful differentiation. The core of business means the purpose of business operation by the company. Thus, Nakagawa Jyuken proceeded with the development of a social business by incorporating keywords like “+ social.” It sets up four business targets to support + social: solutions for the vacant housing problem, renovation of Kominka, promotion of settlement in rural areas, and dissolution of abandonment of cultivated land.

9.2.3 What Is “+ Social”? The first target of the + social business is “solutions for the vacant housing problem.” Nakagawa Jyuken focused on vacant houses that are difficult for owners to maintain, and the discouraging factor to the regional residents as a symbol of the decline of region. Nakagawa Jyuken renovates vacant Kominka, which have historical value, leading to the second business target, “Kominka renovation.” This realizes a solution to vacant housing, which causes great problems for the regional community, and the preservation and inheritance of traditional culture. The next business target is “promotion of settlement in the rural areas,” which is aimed at increasing the regional and nonresident populations. Renovating Kominka and inviting people—who prefer to live in them—to move from the urban city to Kameoka or Nantan can increase the regional population. So far, those who purchase Kominka are mostly senior or retired citizens. However, the population of younger generations can be increased by expanding the Kominka customer base to young families.

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The final target of the business is “dissolution of the abandonment of cultivated land,” which is a source of distress for the regional residents in these rural areas. The abandonment area of cultivated land was 110 ha for Kameoka and 140 ha for Nantan according to the agriculture census in 2015. Once the agricultural land is abandoned, its regeneration has been proven to be difficult. Furthermore, local farmers’ in-depth knowledge of local climate conditions, as well as water and soil characteristics, accumulated over time, could be permanently lost because of abandonment. This would destroy regional agriculture, which is the primary rural industry. Thus, Nakagawa Jyuken’s project aims to rent cultivatable land up for abandonment to city residents. This is a trial rental farm project to disseminate the experience and knowledge of farmers by allowing them to become managers of such rental farms. As stated above, Nakagawa Jyuken’s business philosophy revolves around building a social business to address regional problems holistically, such as through the resolution of the vacant housing issue (Kominka), which leads to the promotion of settlement in rural areas, which, in turn, leads to cessation of cultivated land. While the company avoids high competition with other companies in the industry (red ocean), they differentiate themselves from competitors by dealing with the sales and rental of Kominka business (blue ocean).

9.3 Utilization of Kominka by Social Business Until 2015, Nakagawa Jyuken mainly focused on real estate business by way of sales of new single homes, real estate brokerage, and house reform construction. However, Mr. Nakagawa considered the continued survival of such existing businesses difficult in Kameoka and Nantan, as previously described, and decided to drastically change the business core. This led to the introduction of the + social business, as noted earlier. Therefore, 2015 was the second foundation year for Nakagawa Jyuken. This section introduces the differentiation strategy of Kominka renovation—part of the + social business—by Nakagawa Jyuken.

9.3.1 Example of Kominka Renovation 9.3.1.1

Trial Emigration Business

Nakagawa Jyuken has so far renovated 42 Kominka. One such renovated Kominka is located 10 min, by road, from downtown Kameoka. It is used for a trial emigration experience and as a showroom for visitors. Nakagawa Jyuken rents this Kominka on a five-year rental contract. The renovation and furnishings, including cooking wares, were made at the company’s expense. The cost (6 million yen) for the renovation and furnishing was supported by a bank loan, which is repaid through the income

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from trial living programs, as well as charges of services like the barbeque stand in the garden, and so on, from the customers. The owner of this Kominka receives a rental fee of approximately 18,000 yen/month. For a housing site with a scale of 14,000 ft2 , the higher end of the rental fee might be considered too low for the owner in comparison. However, the owner does not pay any renovation cost. Furthermore, if the owner leaves the Kominka vacant, he would have to spend more on maintenance, such as pruning plants and property tax, which could amount to 600,000 yen/year. However, the owner can avoid such exorbitant maintenance fees by renting the Kominka to Nakagawa Jyuken. After the rental contract term concludes, the owner can own the renovated Kominka and then rent it to other customers for a higher rental fee exceeding 100,000 yen/month. This renovation project would eventually ease the owner’s burdens, such as maintenance cost. That is, the “negative property” can be converted to a positive or profitable property through renovation. The term of the trial stay should be longer than one month in principle, as short stays of one or two nights would infringe on the Hotel and Ryokan Management Law. Therefore, a rental agreement between the borrower (trial stay customer) and the lender (Nakagawa Jyuken) is necessary. The Kominka exudes a unique feeling of the traditional folk house (“Kominka”), yet the living units, including the kitchen, bathroom, and toilet, are renovated as modern units. The refrigerator, cooking wares, tableware, and basic seasoning are also prepared for the trial stay customer’s convenience. All new furniture is set up to reflect the unique Kominka atmosphere, so the trial stay customer can experience authentic Kominka-living. One of the photographs in Fig. 9.1 shows the parlor in the selected Kominka. Since there are various magazines on Kominka and country life in this room, the trail stay customers can imagine a prospective life in a Kominka. This is part of Nakagawa Jyuken’s strategy to make Kominka living a possible dream for customers, and in turn to increase “Kominka customers.” In fact, a visitor from the Saga prefecture had enjoyed a trial stay at this Kominka in September 2017.

9.3.1.2

Renovation and Utilization of “Samurai Residence”

The next property is called a “Samurai residence”; it is located in Nantan city. The descendants of Samurai once lived in this Kominka, making it an authentic Samurai residence. In the entrance area of this house, there is a gate in the tenement house style (Nagaya-Mon gate) and a servant who actually lived there during the Samurai period. The main building of this Samurai residence is a massive architecture built using logs as supportive beams. This house is now being renovated and will be rented as a “Samurai residence” in the near future. This property was offered in sale to Nakagawa Jyuken by the successor (son) of the deceased owner. Nakagawa Jyuken mediated this property between the successor (seller) and a gentleman in Osaka city (purchaser). This purchaser (current owner)

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Fig. 9.1 Trial stay in Kominka. Source Nishiyama photographed in 2017

was one of the customers who sympathized with Mr. Nakagawa’s business philosophy. The total purchase cost, including the renovation cost, was almost 40 million yen. Nakagawa Jyuken, in turn, rented this Samurai residence, from the new owner, for customers. Here, customers can engage in various activities, such as cosplay photography, the Kominka’s first use. Recently, cosplay performance—where young enthusiasts of games or anime wear costumes of characters in full makeup—has become popular here. Such online simulation games include Touken Ranbu. The cosplay performance is not only a meeting place for cosplayers, but also a photography event (Fig. 9.2). The photography location is specified to make the cosplay more attractive and authentic. The traditional Japanese style building is suitable as a background for Samurai-themed cosplay. Therefore, this Kominka is popular as a venue for cosplay photography and meet-ups. The reasons for using this Kominka as a location for cosplay events are as follows. (1) By inviting young cosplayers, customers have an opportunity to learn the attractiveness of this region and the Kominka. (2) By understanding the region’s appeal, they become repeater visitors to the Kominka.

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Fig. 9.2 Cosplay photography event at the Samurai residence and the leaflet. Source Reprinted with permission from Nakagawa Jyuken (2019)

(3) When cosplaying customers postphotographs of their event, along with information on the Kominka, on social networking services, the popularity of the Kominka would increase further. (4) People who find about such Kominka may consider it to be a living option and thus purchase this Kominka. Cosplay events are one way of increasing the younger generation’s interest in Kominka, that is, a customer acquisition approach. If cosplayers become repeat customers, it could cultivate potential customers. Furthermore, since cosplayers are highly active on social media services and other similar tools, their ability to transmit information and to network can be fully utilized to market Kominka. This clever marketing strategy of appealing to cosplayers could increase sales promotion and information transmission.

9.3.1.3

Theme-Oriented Kominka

Although Nakagawa Jyuken’s sales and rental business involve straightforward renovation by the company itself, it has recently focused on theme-oriented Kominka to

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raise the added value of the property and appeal to customers with niche preferences. Since the number of people who prefer Kominka is limited, it is, in itself, a niche market. Furthermore, cosplaying customers are also limited. However, customers with high preferences tend to have strong attachments toward and impressions of the property items, which could act as added value to the customer. Nakagawa Jyuken is thus trying to raise the rarity value and profits of the property by developing an even more niche property. The trial stay Kominka and the Samurai residences are still in their experimental stages. Going forward, Nakagawa Jyuken is planning to accumulate greater expertise in theme-oriented renovations. Thus, I now introduce the utilization of information technology (IT), an aspect that Nakagawa Jyuken has been strengthening to attract niche customers.

9.3.2 Attracting and Retaining Customers Through IT With the popularization of the Internet, it is common for businesses to advertise through official websites and social media. Nakagawa Jyuken has similarly followed suit to acquire customers on social media (Facebook and blog). As for creating a niche business, building an attractive website is important because most potential customers search for necessary information on websites. The website should thus develop trust in the company and its business. We now follow with suggestions on how IT can be utilized by the company.

9.3.2.1

Self-management of Company Website

Nakagawa Jyuken hired one regular employee who is in charge of developing and managing the company website; hence, outsourcing is not an option. The advantages of self-management of the company website include the lack of renewal expenses and the opportunity to update the webpage in real time. To avoid loss of customer interest, the website must excite the customers and pique their interest often. With outsourcing, a renewal cost is necessary for each update. Furthermore, the website content and design could differ from the company’s demand. To address customer demands, constant communication by telephone and e-mail is necessary. This takes up additional time, delaying renewal timing. Therefore, employing an exclusive staff for website management is more profitable in the long term.

9.3.2.2

Enclosure of Customers by Membership Program

Nakagawa Jyuken’s membership program is a strategy to enclose customers. The registration process is easy, requiring only three items: name, e-mail address, and receivable information. Once completed, the member will receive unreleased information, prior notice of new real estate property, invitations to events, gift books, and

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so forth. As of August 28, 2017, the number of registered member was 260, with five to 10 memberships added each month. Registered members receive a weekly mail magazine and monthly newsletter. The newsletter is based on the blog content that Mr. Nakagawa writes at the end of the month. Although many members may not read the weekly mail magazine, core members who await distribution do exist. Providing periodical information to these members could pique their interest more in Kominka and help them understand Mr. Nakagawa’s personality and philosophy/beliefs. It is also a method to enclose customers and promote the Kominka.

9.3.2.3

Completeness of “Visualization”

In order to acquire niche customers from across Japan, information on Nakagawa Jyuken, Mr. Nakagawa, Kominka, and the region’s appeal should be effectively conveyed to potential customers through attractive website content. To make this information easy to understand, “visualization” of the company business, Kominka property, and so on is necessary. Therefore, property information posted on the website should be as close to the real view as possible. Nakagawa Jyuken hopes to avoid a situation, wherein the real property turns out to be different from the website information once a customer visits the location. In case of other real estate companies, cases do exist wherein potential customers stop their purchase because of a difference in the website pictures and the real property on the site. Nakagawa Jyuken focuses on using concrete information about the property’s location on the website. Since the purchase intention differs among potential customers, a guide to the property for potential customers with low purchase intention could be a waste of resources. If detailed location information is posted on the website, even such customers would be encouraged to visit the location themselves. This saves the real estate company’s time. Nakagawa Jyuken has been focusing on the visualization of the sales property (outside) and Mr. Nakagawa’s personality (inside). For instance, Mr. Nakagawa posts about his hobbies on Facebook, such as visiting temples and shrines or running marathons. Although it seems to be an image strategy, the temple and shrine tours are popular among seniors (especially senior women). Therefore, there is a possibility that such seniors may become potential Kominka customers. Furthermore, there is a possibility that people with similar hobbies as Mr. Nakagawa may develop friendly feelings toward him. When purchasing highly expensive items, such as real estate property, a mutual trust is essential between the seller and purchaser. Therefore, Mr. Nakagawa’s social media posts on his hobbies could contribute to building reliable relationships with potential customers. This method could be a strategy of customer promotion and utilization of IT for real estate business.

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Production of English Version of Home Page and Overseas Business Development

The target market for Nakagawa Jyuken is not only the domestic market, but also the overseas market. As described before, Japanese culture, including Kominka, is highly evaluated overseas, and especially in European countries and the USA. Therefore, the possible existence of a sizable European and North American potential customer base is high. Considering this, Nakagawa Jyuken gathered market research through a market survey company in order to develop the English version of its home page, aimed at capturing overseas customers. Owing to the survey, three companies from the US market showed interest in Nakagawa Jyuken’s Kominka business. One provides a tourist service in a luxury cruise ship passenger at the Japanese port. The service may include the introduction of a trial stay in a Kominka for the cruise passengers. Mr. Nakagawa is also planning similar businesses dealing with rebuilding disassembled Kominka overseas, and/or export of building materials, like pillars and traditional furniture, from the Kominka to overseas markets. Since there are more highly affluent people overseas than in Japan, and they do not lavish money on highly valuable items, there might be a chance to rebuild disassembled Kominka overseas if the value is acceptable to potential customers. Furthermore, since Europeans and North American tend to evaluate historical homes very highly, there could be a significant market potential for Kominka in Western countries.

9.3.3 The Diffusion of Know-How of Kominka Renovation Here, I would like to introduce a business model for Kominka renovation and its nationwide diffusion by Nakagawa Jyuken. This could be the real beginning of resolving the vacant housing problem in Japan. To resolve the increasing trend of vacant housing, the proposed system must smoothly distribute vacant houses in the market. However, since each vacancy is different, it is difficult to develop a systematic approach. Therefore, if the know-how on Kominka renovation can be standardized in a manual and distributed to real estate companies, home builders, and other organization at a fee, Kominka across Japan can be repurposed and utilized. The local regions can then be revitalized by the promotion of immigration. Nakagawa Jyuken is planning to complete the aforementioned business model of Kominka renovation by 2022. However, this requires many tasks that must be resolved first. Here, I describe tasks that Nakagawa Jyuken should resolve until the completion of the business model. The first target for problem-solving is to establish an incorporated non-profit organization (NPO). Mr. Nakagawa is planning to establish an NPO with the temporary name “NPO Exciting immigration club.” This NPO would promote emigration to the Kameoka and Nantan cities and would include an emigration-experienced person,

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owner of vacant houses, and an emigration applicant. The owner of vacant houses and the emigration applicant each have a concern, as outlined in Table 9.1. The emigration-experienced person conveys his or her own experience to the emigration applicant and suggests vacant house owners to renovate or sell/rent their vacant house. There are quite a few local governments in Japan that have introduced a vacant house banking program, but almost all of these programs include posting mere information on the Internet, without any concrete services. Therefore, the NPO is expected to develop a new vacant house banking program, where the emigration-experienced person will not only consult with the emigration applicant, but also play an interface role with the owner in the future. The second target is to secure the project fund and human resources. The biggest bottleneck in Kominka renovation is the finances. Although the bank calculates the loan amount based on the security value of the real estate property, the value of a Kominka is now recognized as without any value. Furthermore, in the urbanizationcontrolled areas, the evaluation value is further lowered. However, Nakagawa Jyuken relies on bank loans for renovation costs. When the Kominka renovation business expands, more project funds would be necessary, increasing the importance of finances. To address this, Nakagawa Jyuken has been reviewing the possibility of cloud funding by a certain company. Furthermore, Nakagawa Jyuken has taken an effort to make the financial organization understand the profitability of the Kominka renovation business by delivering actual results. Along with fund-raising, human resources must also be secured. Nakagawa Jyuken is planning to hire salespersons and staff members—three employees—step by step in the future. These employees must be familiar with IT-related operations and technical knowledge. Furthermore, the training of craftsman with the required skills to renovate Kominka is also essential. Though renovation currently relies on local builders, more builders will be required as the business grows. Since Kominka craftsmanship cannot be learned in a day, it is necessary to extensively study building techniques, even if it takes a long time. Even if jobs are offered through regular recruiting routes, such as the Public Employment Security Office, there is a possi-

Table 9.1 Members of non-profit organization (NPO) Members

Worry

Merit of NPO

Emigrant

• Organizations that play a central role

• Place to exchange information on various experiences • Communication based on emigrants’ viewpoints

Owner of vacant houses

• Maintenance cost • Looking for the user

• Save expenses by renting vacant houses • Direct communication with the borrower

Emigration applicant

• Emigration to a local region • No place to make a trail stay

• Hearing the experience • Trial stay prior to emigration

Source Made by the reference material provided by Nakagawa Jyuken

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bility that the builders may not be trained in a skill that is equivalent to the skill of professional master craftsmen owing to restrictive regulations, such as those in the Labor Standards Act. Thus, the concern regarding the best route to secure craft trainees persists.

9.4 Conclusion When we face the fact of increasing vacant houses or the housing problem itself, we tend to consider countermeasures by focusing on the vacant house. That is, we tend to worry about “How has the vacant house come about?” and “How should we utilize the vacant house?” However, if we consider the “local region” rather than the “vacant houses,” we may be able to recognize that this trend is a symptom of macrophenomena, such as population decline and aging. If we address the vacant housing issue from the perspective of regional revitalization, we could also address other problems related to population decline and aging. This report also reveals that effective and large-scale utilization of vacant houses, which are increasing dramatically, necessarily requires the private sector’s business skills. Many programs targeting “vacant houses measures” nationwide are luck of the viewpoints above. Subsidized projects related to vacant housing by the local government is a good example. Even if each vacant house can be renovated into a meeting place for the local community or into a welfare facility for an NPO, it would still not effectively resolve the underlying problem. It would be a waste of working load and taxes. If such houses are used as meeting places, it should not be part of “vacant house measures,” but for the purpose of community revitalization. Nakagawa Jyuken’s work implies the importance of considering the revitalization of local regions and the establishment of a systematic utilization method to address vacant houses by private business operators. Acknowledgements This research was financially supported by the following KAKENHI: (1) Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Project number 15H03276, PI’s Yoshimichi Yui at Hiroshima University. This translated paper is part of the following article: Nishiyama H (2017) Resolution of the Vacant Houses by Social Business. The Annual Report of Urban and Regional Economic Studies (Utsunomiya Kyowa University) 17:149–160. (J).

References Nakagawa Jyuken (2019) Nakagawa Jyuken Corporation’s website. http://www.nakagawa-juken. com/. Accessed 7 Jan 2019 2015 Population Census (2017) Statistics Bureau. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/. Accessed 5 July 2018

Chapter 10

Local Responses to a Rise in Housing Vacancies in the Nagoya Suburbs Tomoko Kubo and Toshiyuki Otsuka

Abstract This chapter identified how residents’ perceptions of life differ between aging Japanese suburbs and housing estates with different mobility patterns through field surveys in the Nagoya metropolitan area. We conducted a field survey on the increase in housing vacancies, mobility patterns, and the housing supply in selected districts; topographic conditions; and the activities of local communities. In terms of the spatial structure of aging and the subsequent increase in housing vacancies, different patterns were confirmed that reflected the geographical features of the regions, such as population size, the distribution and volume of job opportunities, and the housing demand/supply balance in the region. In the Nagoya metropolitan area: As the third largest metropolitan area in Japan with an array of global and local industries, suburban shrinkage has progressed much more gradually than that in Tokyo. Thanks to the above-mentioned conditions, younger generations tend to find jobs and require detached houses in the area. Plus, suburban housing developments did not expand beyond the potential functional region in Nagoya. Even in Kani city, as it is within the 25–30 km commuter belt, it is commutable for younger generations even today. Therefore, continuous demand for housing in the suburbs supported an inflow of younger people to some selected neighborhoods. However, there are some neighborhoods that cannot appeal to younger people. Competition among suburban neighborhoods will be accelerated, resulting in gap expansion in terms of the residential environment and sustainability among neighborhoods. Keywords Housing vacancy · Local response · Residents’ association · Mobility pattern · Nagoya suburbs

T. Kubo (B) Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan e-mail: [email protected] T. Otsuka College of Humanities, Chubu University, Kasugai, Japan e-mail: [email protected] © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 T. Kubo and Y. Yui (eds.), The Rise in Vacant Housing in Post-growth Japan, Advances in Geographical and Environmental Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-7920-8_10

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10.1 Introduction 10.1.1 Purpose of the Study This study examines how residents’ perception of residential environments, which determines residents’ behavior in their neighborhoods, differs between aging suburban housing estates with different mobility patterns. This study is done through a field survey in the Nagoya metropolitan area, the third largest metropolitan areas in Japan after Tokyo and Osaka. We conducted our field survey on an increase in housing vacancies, mobility patterns, and the housing supply in selected districts; topographic conditions; and the activities of local communities. This chapter first provides an overview of the countermeasures by national and municipal governments intended to deal with an increase in urban housing vacancies. Then, we examine the structure of the problem through a literature review. In the following section, we deal with a case study in the Nagoya metropolitan area and specifically examine the results of our field survey in Kani city. The field survey was conducted using the following three steps: (1) Interviews with representatives of the local community (residents’ associations, elderly welfare associations, and so on); (2) a questionnaire survey administered to all residents of the case district of the Wakaba-dai neighborhood in Kani city in the Nagoya suburbs; and (3) follow-up interviews with local residents to ascertain their perceptions of their lives. The questionnaires were distributed to all residents of the case neighborhood (1158 households); 510 responded and there were two invalid responses. In short, 43.9% of Wakaba-dai residents responded to the questionnaire. In administering the questionnaires, vacant houses were excluded through on-site confirmation from November to December 2017. In addition, follow-up interviews were conducted in January and February 2018.

10.1.2 Study Area The case area for the study was the Nagoya metropolitan area, the third largest metropolitan areas in Japan after Tokyo and Osaka. Compared to Tokyo, the metropolitan area (in other words, the commutable area) expands out 30–40 km from central Nagoya. One of the largest suburban developments in the region is Kozoji New Town built in the 10–20 km commuter belt and whose residents first moved there in 1968. It was established a few years before Tokyo’s major suburban neighborhoods such as Tama or Chiba New Towns, whose residents started to arrive in the early 1970s. Kozoji New Town consists of various housing types, including owner-occupied single-detached houses, public and private rental housing units, and social housing.

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According to Tani (1997), Nagoya accepted a vast number of immigrants from non-metropolitan areas during Japan’s high-economic-growth period, and that rapidly generated demand for housing. Kozoji New Town targeted nuclear families whose household heads worked in central Nagoya. A large number of residents who moved into owner-occupied detached houses and grew up in non-metropolitan areas went on to move into Nagoya when important life events occurred (e.g., entering university, starting a new job, or getting married). As there are plenty of job opportunities, especially in car companies such as Toyota Motor Corporation, highly educated persons in the engineering field preferred moving into the Nagoya metropolitan area. Reflecting the growing desire for homeownership in the 1960s and 1970s (Ronald 2008), huge suburban housing estates were built in nearby suburbs. In the 1970s, suburban developments expanded and formed a new commuter belt of cities in 25–30 km away from central Nagoya. Kani city in Gifu prefecture is one of the typical municipalities in the area, with a concentration of these later suburban developments. There are various types of housing estate within the city in terms of the number of houses in a neighborhood, housing size and price, and landscape. The Wakaba-dai neighborhood is regarded as one of the most successful aging neighborhoods in Kani city (according to the authors’ interviews with municipal governmental staff), whose first dwellers started to reside there in 1971. Its population had grown to 3500 by 1985, but later declined to around 3000. Its aging rate reached 43% in 2017—the highest in the city. In 2015, the vacant housing rate of Wakaba-dai was 3.4%, far above city average of 1.6% (The Housing and Land survey 2015). In addition, Kozoji New Town recorded an average rate of 9.6% in 2014, with the highest score of 16.9% being seen in rental housing districts and the lowest of 3.2% in owner-occupied detached housing districts (Kozoji New Town official documents).

10.2 National and Local Responses on Housing Vacancies Before analyzing the local responses, how national and municipal governments have dealt with the problems of an increase in housing vacancies in suburban neighborhoods will be explained in the following section.

10.2.1 Expanding Processes of Regulations on Housing Vacancies in the Tokyo suburbs As urban abandonment from increases in vacant houses began garnering great attention throughout society, more than 400 municipalities established their own regulations for promoting the appropriate maintenance of vacant housing (Kubo et al. 2013). In the Tokyo metropolitan suburbs, Tokorozawa City of Saitama Prefecture was the first to establish this type of regulation in October of 2010, followed by

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Matsudo, Ushiku, and Yokosuka cities in 2012, and Saitama, Ichikawa, Kodaira, Hachioji, Chiba, and Kashiwa cities in 2013. In central Tokyo, Adachi City established a regulation for promoting the appropriate maintenance of old and dilapidated buildings in 2011, and Ota City began enforcing regulations on vacant housing in 2013. The regulations for promoting the appropriate maintenance of vacant housing consist of investigations into the vacancies by municipality staff, then suggestions, instructions, and appeals to owners; if owners do not respond to administrative advice in properly maintaining or demolishing their buildings, their names are officially publicized. The regulations of several municipalities including Matsudo, Ichikawa, Chiba, Yokosuka, and Tsukuba cities include Administrative Execution by Proxy, whereby a house is demolished by the local municipality and the cost is claimed to its owner. According to the authors’ interview survey of the aforementioned local municipalities, there were three main reasons for establishing regulations on housing vacancies (Kubo et al. 2013): (1) the details of complaints on vacant housing in dangerous or inappropriate conditions extended several sections to be included within the municipality-environmental, security, and architectural sections, and the number of these complaints increased so much that they had to be integrated into one section; (2) city assembly took initiatives for establishing the regulations; and (3) the existing regulations or laws could not solve problems related to vacant housing, and new regulations on vacant housing were demanded. Most of the complaints received by municipalities from local residents that are related to housing vacancies can be classified as environmental and cleanliness issues, including trees, plants, or weeds that have overrun gardens and spilled out onto roadways or neighboring houses, or illegal dumping of household garbage and industrial waste into vacant housing or building sites. Sometimes, building materials are damaged and disperse, which can endanger neighboring residents; such cases increased after the Great East Japan earthquake in March of 2011. When we looked at the attitudes of local municipalities concerning urban abandonment from increases in housing vacancies, municipalities within the 20–40 km belt of the Tokyo M.A. showed optimistic attitudes because vacant housing and their sites have a strong enough demand thanks to their proximity to central Tokyo. On the other hand, if municipalities are located in the 50–60 km belt or further, attitudes tended to be pessimistic. In any location, housing vacancies were easily found in the following conditions or areas (Kubo et al. 2013): (1) old city centers which had been completed before the present Building Standards Law was enacted; (2) small-scale housing developments, usually where the size of each housing lot was less than 100 m2 and that of the total development did not exceed 1000 m2 , and these developments also tended to lack urban infrastructure such as wide roads or water supply and sewerage; and (3) suburban housing estates developed from the 1960s to 1970s. Specifically, on the edge of the commuter belt in the Tokyo suburbs, the aging of the first generation and relocation of the second generation is evident; these areas were developed as bedroom communities for commuters to central Tokyo, and the

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dominant land uses were houses followed by amenities for residents, with very few workplaces nearby. The first generation could not purchase houses in city centers or near the suburbs because of high land prices, but now that land prices have fallen, the younger generation can purchase houses closer to central Tokyo (Kubo 2015). Therefore, if the younger generation works in central Tokyo, they tend to move out of these areas to live in city centers or near the suburbs. The aging of existing residents has progressed in recent decades, and suburban neighborhoods have gradually become aging neighborhoods, which generates housing vacancies (Yui et al. 2016, 2017; also see Chap. 1).

10.2.2 Spatial Structure of Urban Problems Related to the Increase in Housing Vacancies (1) The case of the Tokyo metropolitan area According to Kubo et al. (2013, 2017), urban abandonment due to increases in housing vacancies has occurred through different mechanisms in the Tokyo metropolitan area; therefore, local responses to the phenomenon also differed: (1) in the metropolitan center, housing vacancies were found with dilapidated buildings in built-up areas; (2) in the 10–40 km commuter belt, local municipalities showed optimistic attitudes toward increases in housing vacancies because they were transitional ones; (3) in the 50–60 km commuter belt, local municipalities were pessimistic because increases in housing vacancies were directly connected to aging and the stagnation of corresponding areas; and (4) some of the outer areas were depopulating regions, and others were affected by other central cities. (1) Built-up areas: In the first ring, many houses were built before the modification of the Building Standard Law. Buildings that do not meet the new standards cannot be rebuilt or resold. Therefore, many houses remain vacant. According to Ota ward in Tokyo, these houses have been controlled by the framework of the Building Standard Laws over decades. But, an increase in housing vacancies beyond the existing controlling systems occurred in recent years, and the municipal government decided to establish new regulation that focused on housing vacancies (Kubo et al. 2013). (2) 10–40 km commuter belt: Thanks to the continuous housing demand, vacant houses tend to be sold out in the area. Most of the housing vacancies in the area are regarded as temporary condition. Of course, there are some problematic vacant houses even in the area which were generated by specific reasons. These houses can be found anywhere with no geographical patterns to emerge: for example, houses cannot be sold out because of inheritance problems; houses are abandoned after incidents or family breakups; or garbage rooms caused by mental or physical illness of owners, such as hoarders. Municipal governments in the area designated regulations to follow the recent movements in suburban municipalities rather than to deal with practical regional problems.

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(3) 50–60 km commuter belt: The area was largely developed during the suburbanization period to supplement a housing shortage in the city center caused by a massive inflow of younger people from rural areas. Population pressure stimulated the expansion of the suburbs beyond possible “commutable” distance, and a sharp rise in housing prices in the 1980s accelerated the expansion. In Tokyo, in particular, the strong housing demand required transformation of surrounding areas from rural to urban at a rapid pace. The edge of the suburbs no longer functioned as a commuting area after the late 1990s (see Chap. 1). In addition to the aging of existing residents, an outflow of younger people triggered an increase in housing vacancies in the area. In these circumstances, the municipal governments spontaneously established regulations to deal with the increase in housing vacancies (Kubo et al. 2013). (4) Metropolitan edge/rural: The increase in housing vacancies has long been discussed as a rural matter caused by depopulation and aging, and it is problematized in the area.

10.2.3 National Regulations on Housing Vacancies An increase in housing vacancies has long been discussed as a problem in depopulated areas; in other words, it is a typical result with respect to rural abandonment. The Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) established several projects that promote the recovery and re-use of vacant housing in rural areas. In addition, some local municipalities and NPOs ran a vacant-house bank for immigrants from metropolitan areas in order to relocate them to rural communities. The situation, however, has changed in the last five years as aging and increases in housing vacancies gradually emerged in metropolitan areas (see Chaps. 1 and 2). In 2010, the government formally started to examine how to stimulate the second-hand housing market and renovation industry for remodeling houses, and in 2013, the MLIT enhanced the areas applicable to their projects for the recovery and re-use of vacant housing by including big cities. The MLIT also promulgated the Law Concerning Special Measures for the Promotion of Countermeasures for Vacant Houses in November of 2014, and its guidelines for local municipalities became enforced in May of 2015. Its main objectives are to promote the investigation, administrative advisory, and demolition of dangerous vacant houses designated as “specific housing vacancies” by local municipalities. If a vacant house is designated as a “specific one,” local municipalities are to investigate its owner and order them to properly maintain or demolish it. Interestingly, the tax reduction and exemption measures pertaining to the municipal tax on real-estate properties were regarded as one of the main reasons why abandoned houses were kept in repair. Reflecting the national policy, local municipalities started to establish countermeasures to deal with the increase in housing vacancies. Indeed, the hierarchical political system of Japan was visible in the process.

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10.2.4 The Spatial Structure of the Problem in Local Cities: The Case of Gifu City In addition, the case of mid-sized cities showed a different structure (Kubo 2016). According to Gifu city’s countermeasure plans to deal with housing vacancies that was enacted in May 2018, city-center neighborhoods were selected to be the most challenging areas in terms of the concentrated aging population and the subsequent increase in housing vacancies. Suburban neighborhoods that were developed in the 1970s with a high rate of single-detached houses were regarded as potential problematic areas that might face growing aging and vacancy rates in the next decade. In Gifu city, there are enough job opportunities in the suburbs due to the progression of office and residential functions since the 1980s, in addition to the existing local manufacturing or car factories (e.g., Japanese paper and the Toyota Motor Corporation and other car industries, respectively). Younger generations prefer living in nearby suburbs that offer enough job opportunities, car-oriented residential environments, and new and affordable housing alternatives rather than city centers. Therefore, city centers in Gifu turned into aging communities with an increase in housing vacancies. Moreover, this is true of many local cities that have accumulated enough central city functions, such as seats of prefectural governments. In the next section, we will analyze the case of the Nagoya metropolitan area, with a special focus on Kani city in the outer suburbs of Nagoya, which has housed the growing population of Nagoya since the 1970s by supplying suburban housing options.

10.3 Local Responses to Aging and Revitalizing Neighborhood In this section, we will first describe our neighborhood-level analysis of the changes in mobility patterns over time in the suburban housing estates of Kani city. Then, we will examine a case study on residents’ perceptions of living conditions, details of the housing demand/supply, and local responses to rapid aging and revitalizing neighborhoods.

10.3.1 Different Mobility Patterns in the Nagoya Suburbs Figure 10.1 shows the changes in population by age group between 1995 and 2015, as shown by neighborhood-level analysis in Kani city. There were four types of mobility pattern in Kani’s housing estate neighborhoods: (1) the aging of existing nuclear families with out-migration of young adults around their 20s is dominant, and this type is typically found in metropolitan suburbs such as Tokyo (Fig. 10.1a);

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(2) in addition to the first category, new migration of residents dramatically changed the population structure of the area (Fig. 10.1b). New housing developments started on vacant lands in around the 2010s in these neighborhoods, and younger families moved into these houses; and (3) a mixture of the above-mentioned two patterns was found in some neighborhoods such as Wakaba-dai. In addition to the aging process in a neighborhood as a whole, weak inflows of younger people were confirmed (see in Fig. 10.1c); finally, (4) there are those with no specific features. According to the authors’ interviews with new residents who moved into the Wakaba-dai neighborhood in recent years, at least one family member tended to have grown up in a nearby neighborhood. We will present the case of a couple in their 30s with children who built a house on vacant land in Wakaba-dai. The wife’s parental home is in the nearby block and she grew up in the neighborhood of Wakabadai. The husband grew up in the city center of Kani. They both work for junior high school in neighboring cities. When they started to search for owner-occupation, they visited various locations, but so that the wife could continue to work while the kids were cared for by their grandparents, they decided to build a house in Wakaba-dai. Fortunately, a corner piece of land with plenty of space was available; originally, there was a vacant house that was later removed, so they could choose to use the land for a house. This type of in-migration was commonly found in Wakaba-dai. Vacant lots were either (1) purchased by local developers so they could build affordable detached houses, or (2) purchased by individuals who had usually grown up nearby and wanted to build a new house. Figure 10.2 indicates the location of vacant houses and lots, and their conditions. Due to the high aging rate (over 43%) of the neighborhood, houses have become vacant at a rapid pace in Wakaba-dai. Some of the vacant lands are maintained by a local parking association and rented out as parking areas. The association manages the land via contract with landowners and offers cleaning and lawn-mowing services at least twice a year (authors’ interviews with the chairs of residents’ associations). In addition, many vacant houses are under construction or scheduled for demolition. This means there is a strong demand for vacant land for housing construction because rational landowners tend to avoid taking positive actions in a shrinking market (Lowry 1960). Indeed, houses are being demolished to make way for possible residents. This inflow of younger people started here in around 2000, when a unit of vacant land was purchased by local developers and around eight houses were built and sold. All of the houses were purchased by younger people. Since then, when a house becomes vacant, the land tends to be sold after the demolition of the housing. However, there must be other factors that attract potential residents. We examined community-based activities intended to deal with aging and shrinkage in Wakabadai because they are believed to enhance the reputation of the neighborhood and attract younger people to immigrate to the neighborhood. A detailed examination is presented in the following section.

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(a) Aging of exisƟng residents and ouƞlow of younger people: Aigi-gaoka neighborhood, Kani city (1995-2015)

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Fig. 10.1 Demographic patterns of the studied neighborhoods, Kani city in the Nagoya suburbs, 1995–2015. Source Created based on 1995 Population Census (2014), 2000 (2014), 2005 (2014), 2010 (2012), and 2015 (2017) (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications). https://www.e-stat.go.jp/

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Fig. 10.2 Distribution of vacant houses and land and their conditions in the studied neighborhood, Kani city in the Nagoya suburbs, November 2017. Source The authors’ field survey

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10.3.2 Community-Based Revitalization in Wakaba-Dai Neighborhood In this section, we examine the case of Wakaba-dai neighborhood, located in the 25–30 km commuter belt of Nagoya, which was developed in the 1970s. Most houses are single-detached owner occupations. Although the neighborhood recorded the highest aging rate (over 40%) in Kani city in 2016, it gradually dropped thanks to the inflow of younger people in recent years. The residents’ association (RA) of Wakaba-dai was established in 1971 when the first residents moved in. As seen in other suburban neighborhoods of the time, it was a corporative or property-owners’ association intended to fulfill daily requirements such as water and sewage services in the neighborhood. Therefore, all residents had to join the RA and pay enough money to enjoy its services. According to the authors’ questionnaires, more than 65% of respondents had lived in their homes for more than 30 years; this means that many of them moved into the neighborhood during the first developments and stayed in the same house until today. Synchronous aging of existing residents and outflow of the younger generations steadily raised the aging population rate, with it reaching 43% in 2017. Along with the aging of the neighborhood, social disorder and daily problems started to occur in the neighborhood. The RA has struggled to deal with these problems related to aging since the 2000s. The RA was incorporated in 2005 so that it could commission governmental budget or welfare projects to deal with the above-mentioned regional problems (interview with the chair of the RA in 2017). Under these circumstances, the RA used slogans such as “Stay in the neighborhood as long as possible” or “Aging at home,” and started to offer daily support for elderly residents. In 2012, the Elderly Residents Association (ERA) was established as a part of the RA in order to meet the daily needs of elderly residents, especially elderly singles in their 80s and over, by collaborating with local welfare institutions. The members of the ERA and RA believed that these activities would contribute to building a sustainable and livable community. The RA commissioned the ERA to organize a wide range of programs for local residents. Just after the establishment of the ERA, they accepted a prefectural budget (of about 60,000 USD) to purchase a car so that they could offer a daily shopping support program to vulnerable residents. Its users do not drive due to their aging or lack of a driving license (as was once common for ladies, as their husbands tended to take on the driving duties), or because their adult children live too far away to support their daily shopping or hospital visits. By utilizing the budget and support from local volunteers, they started to offer daily routine drives connecting 12 points within the neighborhoods with major shopping centers, station, or hospitals; the service was named “Asshi-kun.” It is supported by 36 volunteers as of 2017, 173 residents were registered as users. Table 10.1 lists the programs offered by the ERA in 2017 (Official ERA documents 2017). There is a wide range of services such as physical and brain training, lunch gatherings, walking tours, local events such as BBQs or food markets, and daily-

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needs support including “Asshi-kun”; plus, more specific supports are offered upon request. Indeed, aging is inevitable in the neighborhood, but community-based activities have gradually come to be known to municipal governments in Japan. In 2015, they welcomed five groups of communities or municipalities to study the activities of ERAs and the details of community-based activities for dealing with aging. For instance, municipal staff and RAs from Nagaoka city and those from Kyoto pref. visited the local community center on June 27, and the federation of RAs from Izumi city, Osaka visited on February 9 (interviews with representatives of local communities in 2017). The good reputation of the neighborhood encouraged younger people to purchase land there (interviews with new immigrants to the neighborhood). A resident in his 40s, who had just built a new house across the street from his parental home, said the followings: The elderly in the neighborhood are very active and seem much more powerful than people in my age! They’re doing a lot of things by themselves and have solved disorder in their daily lives. So, I felt at ease about buying land here when my parents told me it was for sale.

He is now the leader of an unofficial local association named “the Young,” intended for the younger generations who have recently moved into the neighborhoods. Its members, mainly young parents with small children, are connected via SNS; they gather for BBQs or drinks, support local festivals, and organize events for local kids. The loose connection among members without official rules are attractive to younger people more so than joining an official group such as the RA. Although the Young is an unofficial group, the RA expects it to make up for the lack of local human resources and ensure that the existing community-based activities can continue. For instance, the aging of the volunteers who support “Asshi-kun” is a crucial matter. There was a car accident involving an elderly “Asshi-kun” volunteer that clearly sowed doubts about the continuity of the program among residents.

Table 10.1 ERA programs for residents in the studied neighborhood, Kani city of the Nagoya suburbs (2017) Types of project

Physical training

Lunch gathering

Events

Daily-needs support

Details of each program

Exercise and dance

Once a month

30-min walk: twice a week

“Asshi-kun” a rout drive, all weekdays

Mah-jang Brain training

Participants: 291 in 2015, 340 in 2016

BBQs: twice a year, food market: once a year

Daily-needs support upon request

Source Official ERA documents (2017)

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10.3.3 Sustainability and Anti-shrinkage in the Nagoya Suburbs In this section, we summarize our findings about the spatial structure of the problems in Nagoya to discuss how the difference in aging and urban shrinkage reflects the geographical features of the regions. In the Nagoya metropolitan area, aging in the suburbs was inevitable due to Japan’s high aging rate. Even in other major metropolitan areas, aging is inevitable and it is rapidly becoming urban matters in Japan. In addition, the Tokyo suburbs have started to shrink in terms of population, vitality, industries, and residential conditions because of aging and lack of new investment in urban facilities (Hirayama 2005; Kubo et al. 2017). Compared to the Tokyo metropolitan area, shrinkage in the Nagoya suburbs has been much milder thanks to the intensive mobility of the younger generation within the metropolitan area, supported by the strong preference for detached houses. This has caused continuous demand for housing in existing suburban neighborhoods. However, the important thing here is that competition and selection among suburban neighborhoods has started. In the case of Kani city, mobility patterns were clearly divided into sustainable and shrinking neighborhoods. To win the competition, community-based activities that ensure livable residential environment and a continuous supply of vacant land suitable for new housing developments are necessary (see previous section). Moreover, the appropriate spatial size of the Nagoya metropolitan area, which fundamentally works as a functional region, prevented Nagoya’s suburbs from rapidly shrinking. Although aging and an increase in housing vacancies progressed in rental housing units rather than detached housing districts in the near suburbs (e.g., Koziji New Town), a sufficient inflow of younger people was confirmed in the Nagoya suburbs. Due to the suburb’s proximity to central Nagoya, pleasant environment for raising children, and rich job opportunities, old detached housing has tended to be demolished, and the land has been purchased by younger generations.

10.4 Conclusions This chapter examined if residents’ perceptions of residential environments differ between aging suburban housing estates with different mobility patterns in the Nagoya metropolitan area. We conducted a field survey on an increase in housing vacancies, mobility patterns, and the housing supply in selected districts; topographic conditions; and the activities of local communities. Our results were as follows. In terms of the spatial structure of aging and the subsequent increase in housing vacancies, different patterns were confirmed that reflected the geographical features of the regions, such as population size, the distribution and volume of job opportunities in the region, and the housing demand/supply balance in the region. (1) The Tokyo metropolitan area: due to its strong core with a concentration of urban functions in central Tokyo and the huge expansion of suburban devel-

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opment that occurred in the 1970s and 1980s beyond the potential functional region, the outer suburbs gradually lost their role of supplementing the residential functions of the metropolitan area. This was also accelerated by changes in housing and urban policies after the 1990s that stimulated reinvestment to central Tokyo, rapid aging and low fertility, and socioeconomic changes in society as a whole (see Chap. 1). Gap expansion in terms of urban vitality and residential conditions between the city center and suburbs caused social disorder such as an increase in housing vacancies and a lack of a bond between residents of the outer suburbs. Reflecting these factors, problematic areas were found in the 50–60 km commuter belt around Tokyo. (2) Gifu (a mid-sized local city): Aging and the subsequent increase in housing vacancies occurred mainly in the city center. Aging will progress in suburban neighborhoods in the coming decades, and potential disorder in suburbs has alarmed the municipal government. (3) The Nagoya metropolitan area: As the third largest metropolitan area in Japan with an array of global and local industries, suburban shrinkage has progressed much more gradually than in Tokyo. Thanks to the above-mentioned conditions, younger generations tend to find jobs and require detached houses in the area. Plus, suburban housing developments did not expand beyond the potential functional region in Nagoya. Even in Kani city, as it is within the 25–30 km commuter belt, it is commutable for younger generations even today. Therefore, continuous demand for housing in the suburbs supported an inflow of younger people to some selected neighborhoods. However, there are some neighborhoods that cannot appeal to younger people. Competition among suburban neighborhoods will be accelerated, resulting in gap expansion in terms of the residential environment and sustainability among neighborhoods. Indeed, population loss, aging, and urban shrinkage are inevitable in Japan. In these circumstances, gap expansion can be seen in the following three scales in Japanese cities: (1) a gap within a large metropolitan area (city center and outer suburbs), (2) a gap between metropolitan areas and smaller cities, and (3) a gap among suburban neighborhoods. To deal with these great gaps that are expanding at a rapid pace in three scales, urban governance and fundamental solutions are required. Acknowledgements This research was financially supported by the following KAKENHI: (1) Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B), Project number 15H03276, PI’s Yoshimichi Yui at Hiroshima University; (2) Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists, Project number 18K12580, PI’s Tomoko Kubo at University of Tsukuba.

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