The Illusion of Risk Control : What Does it Take to Live With Uncertainty? 978-3-319-32939-0, 3319329391, 978-3-319-32938-3

Table of contents :
Front Matter ....Pages i-v
Uncertainty: New Perspectives, Questions and Proposals (Gilles Motet)....Pages 1-4
Uncertainty—Its Ontological Status and Relation to Safety (Ove Njå, Øivind Solberg, Geir Sverre Braut)....Pages 5-21
A Conceptual Foundation for Assessing and Managing Risk, Surprises and Black Swans (Terje Aven)....Pages 23-39
Recognizing Complexity in Risk Management: The Challenge of the Improbable (Jean Pariès)....Pages 41-55
Practices in the Danger Culture of Late Industrial Society (Arie Rip)....Pages 57-66
Judicial Review of Uncertain Risks in Scientific Research (Eric E. Johnson)....Pages 67-85
What Can Japan’s Early Modern Capital of Edo Teach Us About Risk Management? (Jordan Sand)....Pages 87-105
Conclusion (Corinne Bieder)....Pages 107-112

Citation preview

SPRINGER BRIEFS IN APPLIED SCIENCES AND TECHNOLOGY · SAFET Y MANAGEMENT

Gilles Motet Corinne Bieder Editors

The Illusion of Risk Control What Does it Take to Live With Uncertainty?

SpringerBriefs in Applied Sciences and Technology Safety Management

Series Editors Eric Marsden, Toulouse, France Caroline Kamaté, Toulouse, France François Daniellou, Toulouse, France

The SpringerBriefs in Safety Management present cutting-edge research results on the management of technological risks and decision-making in high-stakes settings. Decision-making in high-hazard environments is often affected by uncertainty and ambiguity; it is characterized by tradeoffs between multiple, competing objectives. Managers and regulators need conceptual tools to help them develop risk management strategies, establish appropriate compromises and justify their decisions in such ambiguous settings. This series weaves together insights from multiple scientific disciplines that shed light on these problems, including organization studies, psychology, sociology, economics, law and engineering. It explores novel topics related to safety management, anticipating operational challenges in high-hazard industries and the societal concerns associated with these activities. These publications are by and for academics and practitioners (industry, regulators) in safety management and risk research. Relevant industry sectors include nuclear, offshore oil and gas, chemicals processing, aviation, railways, construction and healthcare. Some emphasis is placed on explaining concepts to a non-specialized audience and the shorter format ensures a concentrated approach to the topics treated.

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/15119

Gilles Motet Corinne Bieder •

Editors

The Illusion of Risk Control What Does it Take to Live With Uncertainty?

Editors Gilles Motet INSA. LAAS-CNRS Université de Toulouse Toulouse France

ISSN 2191-530X SpringerBriefs in Applied Sciences ISSN 2520-8004 Safety Management ISBN 978-3-319-32938-3 DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-32939-0

Corinne Bieder Ecole Nationale de l’Aviation Civile (ENAC) Toulouse France

ISSN 2191-5318 and Technology ISSN 2520-8012

(electronic) (electronic)

ISBN 978-3-319-32939-0

(eBook)

Library of Congress Control Number: 2016939387 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2017. This book is an open access publication Open Access This book is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this book are included in the book’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the book’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

Contents

1 Uncertainty: New Perspectives, Questions and Proposals . . . . . . . . . Gilles Motet

1

2 Uncertainty—Its Ontological Status and Relation to Safety . . . . . . . Ove Njå, Øivind Solberg and Geir Sverre Braut

5

3 A Conceptual Foundation for Assessing and Managing Risk, Surprises and Black Swans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Terje Aven

23

4 Recognizing Complexity in Risk Management: The Challenge of the Improbable . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Jean Pariès

41

5 Practices in the Danger Culture of Late Industrial Society. . . . . . . . Arie Rip

57

6 Judicial Review of Uncertain Risks in Scientific Research . . . . . . . . Eric E. Johnson

67

7 What Can Japan’s Early Modern Capital of Edo Teach Us About Risk Management? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Jordan Sand

87

8 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 Corinne Bieder

v

Chapter 1

Uncertainty: New Perspectives, Questions and Proposals Gilles Motet

Abstract Safety is ensured when hazardous circumstances, their consequences and their controls are known. How then, in uncertain contexts can safety be defined and achieved? Uncertainty raises new questions and needs new approaches for dealing with safety. These are introduced in the first chapter and developed throughout the book. Keywords Uncertainty · Safety

1.1 Uncertainty: A New Perspective on Safety The term “technological risk” was initially associated with the occurrence of unwanted circumstances (e.g. leading to accidents) which are both possible and probable. “Possible” expresses the fact that these circumstances are known and enumerable; “probable” means that these circumstances may arise in the future. These circumstances are described, for instance, by combinations of events or by sequences of events (scenarios), or both. In the context of safety, the considered circumstances inevitably lead to harmful events (accidents) when these circumstances arise (the deterministic approach to risk assessment). If all the circumstances are known, treatments can be defined a priori. Barriers prevent the occurrence of accidents by avoiding the occurrence of undesirable combinations or by neutralizing dreaded sequences of events. In this paradigm, safety is defined by the absence of such circumstances and by the absence of accidents, and is guaranteed by the presence of risk controls (barriers). An adaptation of this viewpoint, called the “probabilistic approach to risk assessment”, involved a change to the assumption that the circumstances considered by risk analysts always lead to accidents, by attaching a probability to the appearance of harm. Furthermore, the harm caused is no longer assumed to be constant for the same circumstances. For example, the failure of a system component does not always lead to the system’s failure; the consequences of the failure may be more or less serious. Risk, or rather its estimation, is then defined using criteria such as a combination of the G. Motet (B) INSA. LAAS-CNRS, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s) 2017 G. Motet and C. Bieder (eds.), The Illusion of Risk Control, Safety Management, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-32939-0_1

1

2

G. Motet

probability of the occurrence of a harmful event and the severity of the harms. Safety is defined by the absence of unacceptable risk, usually expressed as a threshold (e.g. probability of a catastrophic failure