The Economics Of Brexit: Revisited [1st Edition] 3030559475, 9783030559472, 9783030559489

The Economics of Brexit – Revisited builds upon and extends the analysis contained within the authors' previous boo

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The Economics Of Brexit: Revisited [1st Edition]
 3030559475, 9783030559472, 9783030559489

Table of contents :
Preface......Page 7
Acknowledgements......Page 10
Contents......Page 11
Abbreviations......Page 14
List of Figures......Page 17
List of Tables......Page 25
Introduction......Page 26
Chapter 1: The Elusive Economic Consensus over Brexit......Page 31
Different Methodologies, Different Conclusions......Page 33
Historical and Counterfactual Analysis......Page 34
Macroeconomic Models......Page 36
CGE Simulations......Page 38
Reduced-Form Evidence Using Gravity Modelling......Page 43
Influential ‘Consensus’ Studies......Page 47
Choice of Models and Their Micro-Foundations Influences Results......Page 49
The Crucial Role of Assumptions in Economic Models......Page 50
Drivers of Brexit Impact......Page 56
Dissenting Studies......Page 59
The Need for More Comprehensive Analysis......Page 60
References......Page 62
Chapter 2: The Fiscal Impact of Brexit......Page 72
Composition and Size of the EU Budget......Page 73
Financial Management and Fraud......Page 77
The UK Rebate......Page 78
Gross Versus Net Contributions......Page 85
Misuse of Statistics......Page 87
The Uncertainty of Future Budgetary Developments......Page 89
References......Page 95
The Economic Theory of Trade......Page 99
Theoretical Effects of Trade Integration......Page 101
Trends in Trade Development......Page 103
UK Trade Development......Page 104
Deficit......Page 105
The EU—A Declining Market for UK Trade......Page 109
European Trade Integration......Page 110
Empirical Studies—Initial Impact of EU Membership......Page 112
Empirical Studies—Medium-Term Impact of EU Membership......Page 114
The Predicted Trade-Related Impact from Brexit......Page 118
Tariffs Under the ‘WTO Option’......Page 119
Economic Models—Trade Predictions......Page 127
The Loss of Future Trade Benefits from EU Membership......Page 131
Conclusions......Page 132
References......Page 134
Definition—What Is FDI?......Page 144
Theoretical Impact—Why Is FDI Important?......Page 146
Determinants of FDI......Page 148
Magnitude of FDI......Page 150
Composition of FDI......Page 156
FDI and the UK Economy......Page 159
The Potential Impact of Brexit upon FDI......Page 162
Limitations of Economic Estimates......Page 163
Attitude Surveys—International Investors......Page 166
Policy Response......Page 171
Case Study: Brexit and the Car Industry......Page 173
Conclusion......Page 177
References......Page 179
Regulation—Benefit or Burden?......Page 188
What Proportion of UK Laws Derive from the EU?......Page 189
Can Brexit Deliver a Regulatory Benefit?......Page 190
Most UK Businesses Do Not Export into the SIM......Page 191
The Estimated Costs and Benefits of EU Regulations......Page 194
Are National Regulations More Beneficial to the UK Economy?......Page 197
‘Singapore on Thames’......Page 199
Modest but Significant Potential Regulatory Gain......Page 200
Regulatory Divergence or Level Playing Field......Page 202
Conclusion......Page 204
References......Page 205
Chapter 6: Migration......Page 209
Neo-classical Theory to Understand the Labour Market and Migration......Page 210
Extensions of Neo-classical Theories Make Predictions More Real......Page 211
The Importance of Migration—Creating Efficiency and a Wage Leveller?......Page 212
Explaining the (Mis)match Between Migration Model Predictions and Reality......Page 214
Why Migrate? Understanding Migration by Looking at Its Causes......Page 216
UK Immigration, Its Poor Image and UK Inequality......Page 219
Migration’s Poor Image in the UK......Page 224
Inequality......Page 226
What Effect Does Migration Have Upon the UK Economy?......Page 232
Wages and Jobs......Page 243
Flexibility and Productivity......Page 245
Designing a Post-Brexit Migration System......Page 247
A New Points-Based Immigration System......Page 249
Reaction and Consequences to the Announced Immigration System......Page 255
Conclusion......Page 257
References......Page 259
Chapter 7: Economic Growth and Productivity......Page 267
Economic Theories of Growth......Page 268
Openness and Economic Growth......Page 270
Competition and Productivity......Page 272
Openness—A Key Determinant of Growth or Proxy for More Important Factors?......Page 273
Openness in the UK and the EU......Page 275
Evidence from the UK—Did Joining the EU Reverse the UK’s Relative Decline?......Page 279
The Impact of Brexit on Openness and Productivity......Page 282
Balance of Payments Constrained Growth......Page 284
UK Balance of Trade and Brexit......Page 287
Conclusion......Page 289
References......Page 290
Chapter 8: Economic Policy After Brexit......Page 296
Uncertainty......Page 297
Has Uncertainty Reduced UK Growth?......Page 304
Long-Standing Investment Performance......Page 308
Short Run—Dealing with Uncertainty......Page 311
Medium Term—Economic Regeneration......Page 313
Industrial Policy......Page 316
Industrial Policy Within the EU......Page 322
WTO Rules and Industrial Policy......Page 325
What Might an Active Post-Brexit Industrial Policy Look Like?......Page 327
Public Procurement......Page 334
Active Labour Market Policy......Page 337
Conclusion......Page 338
References......Page 339
Alternative Trade Arrangements......Page 349
Access Prioritised over Independence......Page 354
Trade-off Access for Independence and Flexibility......Page 359
Other Bespoke Solutions......Page 368
Chequers and the Johnson Withdrawal Agreement......Page 374
Chequers......Page 376
Johnson Revision......Page 380
Future Trade Relationships......Page 381
Conclusion......Page 384
References......Page 386
Conclusion......Page 394
Appendix: Brexit After the COVID-19 Pandemic......Page 396
Place Index......Page 399
Subject Index......Page 402

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