Strategic intelligence for the future 2 : A new information function approach 9781786303905, 1786303906

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Strategic Intelligence for the Future 2

Strategic Intelligence for the Future 2 A New Information Function Approach

Henri Dou Alain Juillet Philippe Clerc

First published 2019 in Great Britain and the United States by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms and licenses issued by the CLA. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms should be sent to the publishers at the undermentioned address: ISTE Ltd 27-37 St George’s Road London SW19 4EU UK

John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 111 River Street Hoboken, NJ 07030 USA

www.iste.co.uk

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© ISTE Ltd 2019 The rights of Henri Dou, Alain Juillet and Philippe Clerc to be identified as the authors of this work have been asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. Library of Congress Control Number: 2019930609 British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A CIP record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 978-1-78630-390-5

Contents

Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

ix

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Chapter 1. From Information Metabolism to Economic Intelligence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1

1.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2. Information metabolism according to Timothy Powell 1.3. Let us examine this concept in more detail . . . . . . . 1.4. Organizations and human beings . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4.1. Individuation according to Jung . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4.2. Individuation according to Simondon . . . . . . . . 1.5. Change within organizations via the information function and an epigenetic approach . . . . . . 1.6. The zone of proximal development . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.7. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.8. References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Chapter 2. Changing Our Way of Thinking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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2.1. Plato’s cave, or the fight against the world of received ideas. 2.2. A society without schools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3. On the intelligence cycle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4. Thinking outside the box and the iron cage . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.1. Thinking outside the box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4.2. The iron cage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5. Holistic thinking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.6. Lateral thinking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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2.7. To unravel Parkinson’s law and received ideas . . . . . 2.7.1. Parkinson’s law . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.7.2. The cost of received ideas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.8. The individual and their behavior . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9. Thinking about the future or a return to future studies 2.9.1. General remarks on future studies . . . . . . . . . . 2.9.2. Foresight in business . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.9.3. Regional prospective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.10. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.11. References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Chapter 3. Innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

45

3.1. Some definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2. The innovation mechanism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3. Different types of innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.1. The development of innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4. Restraints on developing innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5. Science, technology and innovation policies . . . . . . . 3.5.1. Innovation systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5.2. A quick comparison between France and Germany . 3.5.3. The evolution of innovation policy in the United States. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5.4. Innovation in Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5.5. The European Union and innovation . . . . . . . . . 3.5.6. The role of cities in innovation systems . . . . . . . . 3.6. Public innovation policies in France . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.6.1. Innovation and territories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.7. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.8. References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Chapter 4. Formal Information Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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4.1. The importance of the time factor in scientific data . . . . 4.2. Different information typologies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3. Information research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4. Research practices: reductionist, holistic . . . . . . . . . . 4.4.1. The reductionist approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4.2. The holistic approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4.3. Holistic approach and meta-information or metadata . 4.5. On scientific journals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.7. References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Contents

Chapter 5. Examples of Bibliometric Analysis of Scientific Information and Patents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1. Specialist search engines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.1. Carrot2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.2. Wikimindmap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.3. Newsmap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2. Scientific publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.1. Google Scholar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.2. Access to Google Scholar since PoP (Publish or Perish) . 5.2.3. The Web of Science (WoS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.4. Pubmed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3. Information contained in the patents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.1. General remarks on patents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.2. Analyzing patent information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4. Text mining from unstructured texts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5. Automatic summaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.6. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.7. References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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98 98 98 104 106 106 107 110 115 120 120 124 138 140 143 143

Chapter 6. Social Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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6.1. Different types of social networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2. General remarks on social networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.1. Why use social networks in a business?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.2. The risks of social networks in a business . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3. The dangers of social networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4. Minimizing negative influence on social networks . . . . . . . . . . 6.5. An example of an international social network: the Confucius Institutes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5.1. Public diplomacy and Confucius Institutes . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5.2. Structuring the network of Confucius Institutes . . . . . . . . . . 6.6. Examples of software enabling analysis of social networks . . . . . 6.6.1. Analyzing tweets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6.2. Sentiment mining or opinion mining . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.6.3. A more general approach: analyzing tweets in social networks . 6.7. Beyond socialbots and other IT systems, human action: fake news . 6.7.1. The fake news dynamic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.7.2. Beyond publishing online . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8. You love, you “like”, you click, you evaluate, but beware of “click farms” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8.1. Calling Facebook into question? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8.2. Click farms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.8.3. A new type of fake news . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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6.9. Big Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.9.1. The development of Big Data analytics . 6.10. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.11. References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Chapter 7. Information and Economic Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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7.1. Security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.1. Physical security . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.2. Security, personnel and visitors . . . 7.1.3. Security of immaterial goods . . . . . 7.2. Disinformation and image management . 7.3. Pressure groups and NGOs. . . . . . . . . 7.4. IT security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.5. Safeguarding data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.6. Respecting security clearance . . . . . . . 7.7. Crisis management . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.8. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.9. References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Summary of Contents of Volume 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Preface

Information and information research, interpretation and use can no longer be considered within a strictly national framework. This brings some urgency to understanding other cultures and prompts the use of tools that permit a multilingual vision of knowledge. Information is becoming more and more open and accessible, going hand in hand with the need for a multidisciplinary approach to the problems that need to be solved. This requires looking beyond very specialized but closed systems and integrating into strategic thinking multiple aspects of intelligence: scientific, technological, economic, organizational, societal and cultural. At the same time, technology enables the research, analysis and diffusion of information in real time to multiple stakeholders. This dynamic is becoming an essential lever in the transformation of business and organizations by opening up their capacity for world intelligence, new innovation ecosystems and unprecedented ruptures. One of the significant consequences of this mutation is that it obliges the decider to place it at the heart of their system for decision making and strategic governance. It in fact obliges them to adopt a resolutely anticipatory posture, to define a realistic and detailed vision placing “data control” and analysis at the heart of all strategies. Digital transition has always accompanied the evolution of economic intelligence, but technological evolutions, changes in the international environment and intense competition are leading to a real rupture. This is acquiring a critical character which must generate within businesses a capacity for resilience through this breakthrough innovation.

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In particular, strategic information, its collection, analysis and understanding will create, within businesses and organizations, “selfcriticisms”, which are transmissible and generate the mutation needed to understand, interpret and act in a moving and ever more complex world. Henri DOU Alain JUILLET Philippe CLERC January 2019

Introduction

Future economic intelligence will be centered on, among other aspects, information, information research and its analysis and integration in decision-making processes. We first wrote a general reflection on the endogenous integration of the “information function” within organizations. This way of imagining this function’s role leads individuals to develop a different way of thinking, to acquire informative but also critical reflexes that will enable institutions, organizations and businesses to confront the new situations with which they are faced. It is often said that one of the ways for businesses to develop in an uncertain environment is to innovate, whether on the level of technology, administration, management etc. This is why we have examined innovation and its consequences in organizations’ behavior. But, to innovate, that is to move from research to market level, different kinds of information are needed. This why a focus has been placed on holistic research, to properly mark the difference between a reductive vision of information research, and the ever greater need to control the environment through more open research. In this context, various examples of information processing are brought to light. They then follow social networks, since they are currently increasing in importance, mainly due to the advertising for which they are used. It is necessary to understand fully the mechanisms by which they work and the actions of the robot systems within them, so as not to consider social networks only as simple IT systems. Malicious noise and other attacks on an organization’s integrity are also examined as it is necessary to react quickly and prepare for action using maturely thought-out simulations. Finally, information holds great importance for the lives of businesses. It must be secured and defended. Constant attention should be paid to this subject: the threats are multiple; it is

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a good idea to recognize them and develop internal reflexes to head-off attacks or react to them. The level of protection goes beyond classical information and now covers IT security. The survival of business is at stake and beyond awareness, basic action is needed. Fully understanding the risks involving information is becoming a necessity for businesses, and this is the aim of this book: to make the reader aware of a crucial problem and provide them with a number of key elements to create an “appetite” for this function.

1 From Information Metabolism to Economic Intelligence

1.1. Introduction Volume 2 of Strategic Intelligence for the Future focuses on information, information research, analysis and the integration of information in decisionmaking processes. In the first chapter of this work we will, before addressing the technical aspects, attempt to demonstrate the role of the “information function” within organizations. We will consider this “information function” in a broad sense, that is information collection, analysis and creation from the results of analyzing “knowledge for action”. Although everyone agrees that the “information function” should be placed at the heart of economic intelligence, it is rare to find work that analyzes the role of this function in the “evolution” of organizations, businesses and indeed individuals. This aspect is especially important as in many cases, a part of this function, searching for and collecting information, is often outsourced or confined to internal structures remote from decision-makers. We will therefore analyze this function’s role, not in the classical framework of the intelligence cycle (or the information cycle according to the authors), but by exploring more deeply its impact on the behavior of individuals, which forms the substrate for development and the action of institutions and businesses. To do this, we will refer to different works in the information domain metabolism on the one hand, in the context of the individuation of actors on the other hand, and finally in epigenetics in the sense of their action on the world around us, as Joël de Rosnay underlines. We will thus be able to consider that the role of the “information function” is to become a vector for learning within the organization, lying within, in Vygotsky’s sense

Strategic Intelligence for the Future 2: A New Information Function Approach, First Edition. Henri Dou, Alain Juillet and Philippe Clerc. © ISTE Ltd 2019. Published by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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of the term, a proximal zone of development. Indeed, it is through learning that the organization will be able to generate transferable “self-criticisms” that will promote a new form of development. Thus, the “information function” finds a central place when it is the result of endogenous work, engaging all members in the organization. We thus reach a very strong analogy with the Japanese concept of “ba” and its impact on businesses at the level of their coordination, cohesion and efficiency. 1.2. Information metabolism according to Timothy Powell The concept of a living being metabolizing food compared to the metabolism of information within an institution, was described for the first time by Timothy Powell in 1995 [POW 95]. Since this date, the “information function” environment has changed considerably. This change is twofold: – on the one hand, advances in technology which, in this domain, now trigger profound change; – the appearance of new governing systems, supported by methods and tools such as economic intelligence in France or competitive intelligence in the Unites States. In this context, it is useful to revisit the concept of information metabolism by considering the most recent advances in the domain of biology and genetics, but also by referring to older work with roots in psychiatry and psychology. In the analogy between the metabolism of food and information metabolism, Timothy Powell made the following comparison:

Figure 1.1. Information metabolism according to Timothy Powell

From Information Metabolism to Economic Intelligence

3

In this presentation, we therefore find the main stages of the information cycle as it is generally described in economic intelligence. This analogy reveals two aspects that will be important in the rest of this book: cellular chemistry as well as the aspect of taking decisions and taking action, rests in economic intelligence on a “maturation” of strategic information by experts so by human beings) after decisions have been taken. The macro and micro functions are analogous to cellular anabolism and catabolism1 [WIK 18a]. The information function for generally describing this process is not therefore a simple recourse to documentation, rather it engages complex processes, based among others on expertise, lived experience and some understanding of the world around us. It should also be noted that Timothy Powell refers in a short bibliography to works on strategy [TOF 93, TYS 95], to post-capitalist society [DRU 93] and the value of information [POW 94, PET 92] but does not address the relationship of information with biology and the psyche. 1.3. Let us examine this concept in more detail In a remarkable though sometimes contested work, Kepinsky, in his book Melancholia2 [GRA 75, KEP 74], develops the concept of information metabolism at the cellular level. He develops a psychological theory of the interaction of living organisms with their environment, based on information processing [BIE 15]. He also believes that living beings are characterized by their ability to grow and maintain their own negentropy [WIK 18b], which leads to the notion of equilibrium, and in fact of harmony, in the sense found in Chinese philosophy [CHO 07]. The involvement of entropy in the system is also underlined by Germine’s work [GER 93]. But living beings, as Bielecki [BEI 15] underlines, exist under a number of conditions: – to reproduce and evolve; – they are constructed from organic chemical components, based on organic chemical synthesis; – to interact dynamically with the environment; 1 Anabolism is a set of chemical reactions that make up the organism considered. The opposite is catabolism, which corresponds to the set of reactions breaking down the organism. Catabolism and anabolism are the two components of metabolism. 2 Kepinski’s Melancholia is only available in Polish. We use a reference describing the whole theory presented in the book.

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– they are open, dissipative structures significantly displaced from thermodynamic equilibrium; – they conduct electrical circuits on cellular and molecular level; – they are hierarchical, open systems; – they are self-organized organization over time; and

systems

characterized

by

increasing

– they are systems processing information, matter, and energy in a specific way. In these eight conditions, we find a considerable analogy with the conditions that will influence the evolution of organizations (meaning businesses, institutions, etc.) and which are broadly considered in the process of economic intelligence. These should evolve and interact with their environment. They can include hierarchical or open organizations. They may also self-organize; an example of this is institutions or autopoietic networks [MIN 02, ZEL 01, ZEL 92] that change according to constraints in their environment. This analogy, which goes further than the one suggested by Timothy Powell, supports the comparison between living organisms and information which, in Kepinsky’s sense, includes anabolic and catabolic processes [DIF 18]. These processes are equivalent to the processes of researching and accumulating strategic information, then analyzing this to produce knowledge for action. This process can also, always by analogy, be compared to the camel, the lion and the child [WEI 10], stages described by Nietzsche in Thus Spoke Zarathustra [DOU 19, NIE 15]. 1.4. Organizations and human beings An organization, whatever it is, is formed by human beings the sum of whose actions will form the institution’s movement, its way of being; the institution evolves its richness through change. It is therefore important, always remaining with the analogy with life and its psychological interactions, to tackle individuation [ORT 18]. Various definitions are possible depending on the field in which this concept is used: – general definition: distinction between one individual and another in the same species or group and the society of which they form a part of, which makes them exist as an individual;

From Information Metabolism to Economic Intelligence

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– embryology: induction process that leads to the formation of complete organic structures; – linguistics: process by which a group is characterized as opposed to another group thanks to consistencies in linguistic activity; – philosophy: creation of a general idea, of a type of species within an individual; – psychanalysis: process of becoming aware of profound individuality, described by Jung [DUC 18]. 1.4.1. Individuation according to Jung We will, in the remainder of this work, prefer the process of individuation described by Jung and Simondon for two principal reasons: – Jung, in his analytical work, considers the collective unconscious that liberates, within the individual, a vital energy that Jung calls “archetypes”, this is by analogy with the impact of lived experience and history, both for individuals and by analogy for organizations within businesses and institutions; – because Jung’s process of individuation can be amplified when the “balance” of the relationship between the non-human world (the environment, for example, the Internet, connected objects, etc.) and the human world evolves erratically. So, we will return to the notion of stability, explored previously. We thus come back to the dysfunction that “crops up” in an organization that does not know how to or cannot control the “nonhuman” environment it must face. In the process of individuation, “the individual identifies rather with the orientations that come ‘from the self’ – vulgarly defined by the archetype of the self, that is, the totality of the individual personality – than with behaviors, orientations and values that emanate from the social environment around them” [NEV 11]. In this context, we should also list, though on another level, the work of John McGonagle who, in his book entitled A New Archetype for Competitive Intelligence [MCG 96] emphasizes the major role of information and its processing in the evolution of organizations. But the meaning of “archetype” used in the book’s title cannot be compared to that of Jung. For the author, what he means by the archetype is the fact that organizations, under the effect of the evolution of information technologies

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and nascent globalization (the book was published in 1996), should “mutate”, that is, enter a new state, one not necessarily desired, but imposed by the environment. The metaphor used by the author describes a dinosaur that, with a small brain, cannot control its entire body, however, it is suggested to the dinosaur (as for some organizations) to decrease its total volume to improve control, without thinking that the better solution would be to become more intelligent. In the book, the author presents a set of “stimuli” all based on the processing of varied information that will induce the business to change. We may note “shadow benchmarking”, “actual management analysis” and other techniques based on the mathematical analysis of information as a series of central points around which change will develop, and the entirety of these stimuli are called “cyber intelligence” by the author. 1.4.2. Individuation according to Simondon Simondon [FRA 18], while still adhering to Jung’s analysis, differentiates his work from it however by the fact that he believes that the exterior environment and among others, the technological environment will play a more important role for Jung in the individuation process. Individuation can therefore be envisaged: “according to Simondon, the perspective is rather philosophical, built upon a principle of basic ontological analysis in the sense that internal processes between the self 3 and the ‘I’ can be applied to the links between human beings and technical objects, especially to those that possess a high level of complexity or materiality (see the new links with digital support)” as José Pinheiro Neves describes [NEV 11]. To illustrate the statement better, we return to the example cited by Neves [NEV 11] that makes it possible, through the concept of individuation, to understand post-modern society better as well as the technical and social environment that characterizes it. A patient teaches courses at a private university but there is no fixed contract for the work, and because of this he cannot envisage a clear and stable future. His wife is in the same situation. They have no children. This unstable financial situation is affecting his relationship with his wife. Therefore, a previously stable relationship is 3 The self is an interior product of the individual, the social archetypes constituting the link with the outside world.

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becoming strained in a system where flexible contracts are gradually undermining stability. “In this context there is an epidemic that is infecting and affecting the imaginary, the spirit of the times. The previous individuation based on a link between security and a regular and daily occupation in space and time (the time of material work in the Taylorian world) tends to disappear gradually. In this context, the Internet and its decontextualized links, without face to face interaction, such as those in digital social networks, play a decisive role in the postmodern imagination and the transformation of the notion of the individual, of the subject”. As Neves emphasizes, “with neo-liberal capitalism and the emergence of post-modern society there is an image that acts as an epidemic that surrounds us all and which may increase with the new chaotic and anomic ways of living daily life in post-modern society” [MAF 00]. In this approach, we find the “fears” generated by uncertainty over employment, by the evolution of some cities (smart cities) to the detriment of interstitial space, by “deserts” of all kinds affecting rural spaces, etc. This consideration of the removal of former archetypes cannot be made without posing serious problems, as modifying archetypes in the process of change within organizations has not been the subject of in-depth studies and appears to be difficult [CAR 02]. In fact, Greenwood [GRE 93] emphasizes that organizations are structured in terms of archetypes (considered as organization templates) which are derived from their institutional practices, but it is change that requires moving from one archetype to another and is highly problematic. In the work of analyzing different case studies, Ploesser [PLO 09] distinguishes four types of archetype to be introduced into organizations to prepare them for change depending on the external circumstances. He thus defines the following archetypes: elements of synergy, change of tendency, oscillation and incremental learning. In his conclusion, he underlines the need to develop meta-models that will make it possible to situate archetypes with different levels of abstraction: immediate, internal, external and in the environment. 1.5. Change within organizations via the information function and an epigenetic approach Epigenetics [BER 09] is a new science that has been the subject of constant interest for 10 years or so [SCH 15]. It was popularized among

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others by Joël de Rosnay in his book La Symphonie du vivant [ROS 18]. Epigenetics shows that we are not only the product of our genes, but that we possess a real power to act on them. As far as this work is concerned, we will limit ourselves to indicating that an “unused” part of our DNA may be “motivated” to cause transmissible and reversible changes both to our body (health), but also to our psychological behavior. As Joël de Rosnay, emphasizes, the way we eat, engage in physical activity, our emotional and familial equilibrium are actions that will direct our health and personality. It is in this way that considerable research activity has developed asking how epigenetics can be used to act on a number of diseases, including among those that are not contagious [FAR 15, KIM 17]. What is particularly important at the level of epigenetics and its effects on ourselves, is that these actions are transmissible, but also reversible, in the sense that a change in behavior can have inverse effects and that (partial) transmission from one generation to another is not fixed and the “traits” transmitted may be lost. But we can go beyond biology and since “epigenetics acts on a system as complex as living organisms, can we not apply it to complex systems such as the society in which we live, work and act?”, as Joël de Rosnay emphasizes. De Rosnay explains in La Symphonie du vivant how the principles of epigenetics can act on our societies’ DNA and therefore modify their expression. Among other suggestions, he suggests establishing a relationship between epigenetics and epimemetics to make modifications at the societal level, in businesses and in all forms of human organization. Social networks direct our behavior and create a “participative citizens’ co-regulation”. This then leads us back to the subject of this book, the role of the “information function” within an organization and especially within businesses. In fact, it is from this function that the creation of knowledge for action will be organized, toward the business’ strategic objectives. But in our opinion there are two ways to proceed. The first, which is without doubt the worst, is to acquire information entirely externally, without being able to intervene regarding its content, coverage, or the successive repeats through which we learn to become better informed, to develop training and to create a serendipity which will in many cases make the difference. The second calls upon what we call the “endogenous information function”4 internal to the

4 The concept of the “endogenous information function” and its role in institutional change was presented by an author during a meeting regarding the economic intelligence degree at

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business, which makes it possible to create a climate of curiosity and surprise that will make it possible to confront decision-making consistently and endogenously. Of course, not all information may be available simply because of the exploitation of varied sources of information by the organization, but if much of it is acquired through efforts from the whole of the institution, and it will create the “self5 criticisms” that will promote its mutation. Moreover, supplied by a joint effort in accessing information and analyzing it, the archetypes acquired over the course of the business’ past life can be modified, the “nonhuman” world, that is the business’ interface with the external world then becomes more understandable and generates new behaviors. In fact, the creation of an epigenetic dynamic within organizations has been emphasized by the work of Gómez Uranga [GÓM 14] in the context of multinational IT firms. The meme, or the cultural equivalent of the gene, is described as an “element of a culture (taken here in the sense of a civilization) that may be considered to be transmitted by non-genetic means, in particular by imitation” [JOU 05]. This is why access to information and its processing, carried out endogenously, within a business or organization will, beyond the evolution of archetypes, create habits that can be transferred by imitation. But be warned, this process is reversible and if the effort to acquire information ceases, regression will follow. 1.6. The zone of proximal development The concept of a zone of proximal development (ZDP) [BRU 11] was developed by Vygotsky [VIG 04, WIK 18d] in the context of his research on the educational development of children. He believes that transmission is not always genetic, but that it sometimes may be cultural. In this sense, he returns to the concept of memes; a unit of information that can be exchanged within society. The concept of proximal development can, in our opinion, be extended to an organization. In fact, according to Vygotsky, three essential zones can be established:

the Université de Corse, 13 April, Ajaccio, as well as at the ATVIC meeting (Association tunisienne de veille et d’intelligence compétitive) in Tunis on April 19, 2018. 5 Self-criticism is a cultural equivalent of the gene: “a unit of information contained in a brain and exchangeable within a society”.

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– a zone where the child can act alone, this is the equivalent of a business’ profession where information is normally known and mastered; – a zone where the child cannot do anything, even with assistance, so by analogy, actions taken at international level by a country to help its businesses with export. The Advocacy Center [WEI 06], created in 1993 in the Unites States to promote export is a good example; – a third zone called “proximal development” (ZDP) is also present. This is a zone where the child can progress with outside help. Here we return to “information function’s” role of endogenous development, where the business should learn to research, master and analyze some of the information needed for a better knowledge of its environment, its potential competitors (new arrivals in Porter’s sense) and above all develop a prospective attitude. It is from these elements that there will develop within the business a knowledge for action and from this “internal mechanism”, the business will mutate. If we believe that some of the information function rests on the appropriation of technical objects (for example, acquiring mastery of software and IT systems that allow access and statistical analysis of information), we return to ZDP, where mastery of the technical object will occur through training, by analogy with the appropriation of the object by others. This is in step with the work of Pierre Steiner [STE 10]: “Once grasped, the technical object plays a formative role in our capacity for action, reasoning or even perception […]. Incorporation: the user tests the technical object as a part of themselves; the object is thus a transparent extension of their own body (by means of appropriation), increasing their power for action and perception”. The concept introduced by Vygotsky leads us to ask an important question in economic intelligence: what happens if a business sub-contracts the whole of its information research, even if the results provided to it are pertinent? In our opinion, the act of not practicing, and of not internalizing research, information sharing and analysis deprives the business of an important lever for its evolution. This also leads to a sometimes tricky question: where should the group (or, in a very small business, the individual) in charge of the “information function” be situated? It is clear, that to be effective, this function must be located close to decision-makers. It

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would be a grave error only to introduce too many levels of hierarchy between the information and the center(s) where decisions are made. The zone of proximal development and its impact on child learning can also be linked to the concept of the learning business or organization, that is with an internal desire to acquire the means of mastering all or part of the [WIK 18c] information needed for constant surveillance of factors critical to the business’ success [TAM 09] and the mastery of its areas of influence. Thus, the organization will remain in step with its ecosystem. 1.7. Conclusion In the context of this study, we have not tackled the question of going into further detail about the relationship between the “information function” and its involvement in changing the behavior of institutions and businesses. Much headway is still needed to be able to understand how we could, using the theory of information metabolism, individuation and epigenetics, understand the impetus for change. However, these different orientations are starting to become the subject of research, which although rare, underlines the possibilities offered by such an approach. The “information function”, through its complexity and its direct relationship with strategy, is the Gordian knot of economic intelligence. Because of this, understanding this function’s involvement in the evolution of organizations, among others in the context of a technological evolution moving with increasing rapidity, is becoming a challenge. We wished to emphasize too that classical presentations of the information cycle or its use in economic intelligence, were reductive at least and merit deeper analysis. Bringing into play both the practices of the institution based on archetypes acquired throughout its long history and the involvement of personnel responsible for this function6, it indeed seems that understanding the impetus for change brings into play the interaction between these two aspects, hence the recourse to psychology and epigenetics. If, as Simondon underlines, the individual is in a permanent state of tension because of the relationship between the “non-human” (including technological) world and its deeper aspirations, change management will necessarily have recourse to deeper analyses and different methods from those classically applied at present.

6 Rather than using this reductive notion, we prefer the collective Japanese [NON 00] way of tackling the problem by making all actors in the business responsible for this function.

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1.8. References [BER 09] BERGER S.L., KOUZARIDES T., SHIEKHATTAR R. et al., “An operational definition of epigenetics”, Genes & Development, no. 23, pp. 781–783, 2009. [BIE 15] BIELECKI A., “The general entity of life: a cybernetic approach”, Biological Cybernetics, no. 109, pp. 401–419, 2015. [BRU 11] BRUNER J.S., HICKMANN M., “La conscience, la parole et la ‘zone proximale’ : réflexions sur la théorie de Vygotski”, in J.S. BRUNER (ed.), Le développement de l’enfant. Savoir faire, savoir dire, Presses universitaires de France, Paris, pp. 281–292, 2011. [CAR 02] CARR A., “Jung, archetypes and mirroring in organizational change management: lessons from a longitudinal case study”, Journal of Organizational Change Management, no. 15, pp. 477–489, 2002. [CHO 07] CHOUKROUNE L., GARAPON A., “Les normes de l’harmonie chinoise”, Perspectives chinoises, no. 3, 2007. [DIF 18] DIFFEN, Anabolism vs catabolism, available diffen.com/difference/Anabolism_vs_Catabolism, 2018.

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[DOU 19] DOU H., JUILLET A., CLERC P., Strategic Intelligence for the Future 1, ISTE Ltd, London and John Wiley & Sons, New York, 2019. [DRU 93] DRUCKER P.-E., Post Capitalist Society, Harper-Collins, New York, 1993. [DUC 18] DUCRETOT S., Le processus d’individuation de C. G. Jung, available at: https://www.psychaanalyse.com/pdf/JUNG_LE_PROCESSUS_D_ INDIVIDUATION_ CHEZ_C_G_JUNG_20_PAGES_2.5_MO.pdf, 2018. [FAR 15] FARH K.K.H., MARSON A., ZHU J. et al., “Genetic and epigenetic fine mapping of causal autoimmune disease variants”, Nature, no. 518, p. 337, 2015. [FRA 18] FRANCE CULTURE, “Gilbert Simondon, du mode d’existence d’un penseur technique”, available at: https://www.franceculture.fr/emissions/les- nouveauxchemins-de-la-connaissance/gilbert-simondon-14-du-mode-d-existence-d-un, 2018. [GER 93] GERMINE M., “Information and psychopathology”, The Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease, no. 181, 1993. [GÓM 14] GÓMEZ-URANGA M., MIGUEL J.C., ZABALA-ITURRIAGAGOITIA J.M., “Epigenetic economic dynamics: the evolution of big internet business ecosystems, evidence for patents”, Technovation, no. 34, pp. 177–189, 2014. [GRA 75] GRADZIK B., “Antoni Kępiński, Melancholia (Melancholy)”, Dialectics and Humanism, no. 2, pp. 193–195, 1975.

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[GRE 93] GREENWOOD R., HININGS C.R., “Understanding strategic change: the contribution of archetypes”, Academy of Management Journal, no. 36, pp. 1052– 1081, available at: https://journals.aom.org/doi/abs/10.5465/256645, 1993. [JOU 05] JOUXTE P., Comment les systèmes pondent ? Introduction à la mémétique, Le Pommier, Paris, 2005. [KEP 74] KEPIŃSKI, A., MITARSKI, J., Melancholia, Państwowy Zakład Wydawnictw Lekarskich, 1974. [KIM 17] KIM M., COSTELLO J., “DNA methylation: an epigenetic mark of cellular memory”, Experimental & Molecular Medicine, no. 49, p. 322, 2017. [MAF 00] MAFFESOLI M., L’instant éternel. Le retour du tragique dans les sociétés post-modernes, La Table ronde, Paris, 2000. [MIN 02] MINGERS J., “Can social systems be autopoietic? Assessing Luhmann’s social theory”, The Sociological Review, no. 50, pp. 278–299, 2002. [NEV 11] NEVES J.P., “Pour comprendre les nouvelles liaisons digitales : le concept d’individuation chez Carl Jung et Gilbert Simondon”, Sociétés, no. 1, pp. 105– 114, 2011. [NIE 15] NIETZSCHE F., Ainsi parlait Zarathoustra, nouvelle édition augmentée, Arvensa Editions, Saint-Julien-en-Genevois, 2015. [NON 00] NONAKA I., TOYAMA R., KONNO N., “SECI, Ba and Leadership: a Unified Model of Dynamic Knowledge Creation”, Long Range Planning, no. 33, pp. 5–34, 2000. [ORT 18] ORTOLANG, “Individuation”, available at: http://www.cnrtl.fr/definition/ individuation, 2018. [PET 92] PETERS T., Liberation Management, Knopf, New York, 1992. [PLO 09] PLOESSER K., JANIESCH C., RECKER J.C. et al., “Context change archetypes : understanding the impact of context change on business process”, 20th Conference on Information Systems, Melbourne, Australia, available at: https://eprints.qut.edu.au/30014/1/ACIS2009_PloesserEtAl.pdf, 2009. [POW 94] POWELL T.-W., “Measuring the value of information investment”, The Journal of Association for Global Strategic Information, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 6–7, 1994. [POW 95] POWELL T.-W., “Information management”, Competitive Intelligence Review, vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 41–45, 1995. [ROS 18] ROSNAY J. Paris, 2018.

DE,

La symphonie du vivant, Éditions Les Liens qui libèrent,

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[SCH 15] SCHÜBELER D., “Function and information content of DNA methylation”, Nature, no. 517, p. 321, 2015. [STE 10] STEINER P., “Philosophy, technology and cognition state of the art and perspectives”, Intellectica, vol. 1/2, no. 53/54, pp. 7–40, 2010. [TAM 09] TAMBOURA I.B., AMMAR-MAMLOUK Z.B., “Identification et validation des facteurs critiques de succès pour la mise en place d’un dispositif de veille stratégique”, La revue des sciences de gestion, no. 3, pp. 187–193, 2009. [TOF 93] TOFFLER A., War and Anti-War, Warner books, New York, 1993. [TYS 95] TYSON K.W.M., “The perpetual strategist”, Speech to the New York Chapter of the Society for Competitive Intelligence Professionals (SCIP), New York, 1995. [VYG 04] VYGOTSKI L.S., “Imagination and creativity in childhood”, Journal of Russian and East European Psychology, no. 1, p. 42, 2004. [WEI 06] WEISS L., THURBON E., “The business of buying American: public procurement as trade strategy in the USA”, Review of International Political Economy, no. 13, pp. 701–724, 2006. [WEI 10] WEISKOPF R., STEYAERT C., “Metamorphoses in entrepreneurship studies: towards an affirmative politics of entrepreneuring”, The Politics and Aesthetics of Entrepreneurship: A Fourth Movements in Entrepreneurship Book, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, p. 183, 2010. [WIK 18a] WIKIPEDIA, “Anabolisme”, available at: https://fr.wikipedia.org/ wiki/Anabolisme, 2018. [WIK 18b] WIKIPEDIA, “Antoni Kepinski”, available at: https://fr.wikipedia.org/ wiki/Antoni_K%C4%99pi%C5%84ski, 2018. [WIK 18c] WIKIPEDIA, “L’organisation apprenante”, available at: https://fr. wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_apprenante, 2018. [WIK 18d] WIKIPEDIA, “Lev Vygotski”, available at: https://fr. wikipedia.org/wiki/ Lev_Vygotski, 2018. [ZEL 92] ZELENÝ M., HUFFORD K.D., “The application of autopoiesis in systems analysis: are autopoietic systems also social systems?”, International Journal of General System, no. 21, pp. 145–160, 1992. [ZEL 01] ZELENÝ M., “Autopoiesis (self‐production) in SME networks”, Human Systems Management, no. 20, pp. 201–207, 2001.

2 Changing Our Way of Thinking

For some years, France has been developing a public economic intelligence policy that involves implementing within businesses, communities, universities, research bodies, associations, etc. the methods and tools for mastering strategic information for any economic actor, with a threefold aim: competitiveness in the industrial sector, economic security for businesses and the reinforcement of influence in the country [JUI 13]. However, this development, which began 20 years ago with the Martre report [MAR 94] was developed in a very different international context to today’s. Currently, there have been a series of unprecedented disruptions, such as Brexit in Europe, the election of Donald Trump in the United States, the termination of various international agreements such as the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) or the rise of nationalism, which show that we are moving into a new era. This means that frames of the reference of the last 50 years are becoming obsolete and should be reconsidered. Some simple examples support this viewpoint: multilateral agreements will almost disappear in favor of bilateral agreements between countries or groups of countries, China with the development of the silk road (OBOR) [ZHA 16], ever easier access to large masses of information, which is making the individual more independent from the State, and consequently a greater trend toward autonomy, deglobalization, repeated errors in polling institutes and the rise of inequality with the growth of the digital world, which will destroy more jobs than it will create, etc. All this leads us to believe that although the aims of economic intelligence now remain the same, the way in which information is researched, in which strategic information is selected and interpreted should no longer rely on an outdated intellectual framework and

Strategic Intelligence for the Future 2: A New Information Function Approach, First Edition. Henri Dou, Alain Juillet and Philippe Clerc. © ISTE Ltd 2019. Published by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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a sense of certainty created by years of scholarship and dominant thought. We should therefore open our minds to new ideas, to a different vision of “things” and their interactions with one another. This introduction aims to provide the reader with points of reference, often old, but too often neglected, which would lead to reflection on the way we research, contextualize and interpret the multiple signals available via ever more effective information systems. We should therefore resist received ideas and acquire the “critical thinking” that will enable us to react “healthily”. The vision of Albert Camus, in the text Ni Victimes ni Bourreaux (Neither Victims nor Executioners), published in 1948 [CAM 48], is in this sense a guiding thread we should follow: “It is true that consciousness is always lagging behind reality: History rushes onward while thought reflects. But this inevitable backwardness becomes more pronounced the faster History speeds up. The world has changed more in the past fifty years than it did in the previous two hundred years”. Applying these words today, in a world where everything is accelerating, is even more meaningful than nearly 70 years ago. 2.1. Plato’s cave, or the fight against the world of received ideas In Book VII of The Republic, the famous allegory of the cave shows us how individuals in captivity who have only a single visual perception of the world through a system of shadows projected on the wall of a cave have a stereotypical vision of what surrounds them. But, when one of these individuals, freed from their chains, perceives external reality, they are met with skepticism and great hostility by their fellows as the vision of reality so much contradicts their ways of thought acquired through habit [WIK 18a] (initial belief, prejudices, etc.). In this allegory, Plato puts into perspective the denial of reality before new facts presented to us. We need to overcome the resistance resulting from habit, and old but largely still used points of reference that, if they are used in analysis, lead us into error. By extension, we can believe that all “conditioning of our thoughts” can be compared to this allegory, such as some media or social networks that “trap” us in dark networks, which often mask reality and impose ways of thinking and acting upon us.

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It is also observed that the “staging” of this denial of reality is not new, yet what was formerly the privilege of a few philosophers is now something in which we all engage. In fact, the rapid development of access to information only amplifies this phenomenon. Individuals can therefore refer to multiple, often biased pieces of information, coming from different sources and with the object of directing our ways of thinking without us being aware of it [RAC 09]. Thus, for Plato, the first condition of humanity is the ignorance from which we must, as an imperative, start out [WIK 18b]: a product of our education and habits, it makes us the prisoners of appearances. 2.2. A society without schools This allegory, another one of Plato’s, introduces a direct link with pedagogy and teaching. Doesn’t what we are taught (for Ivan Illitch [ILL 05]) by compulsion lead to a perversion of our minds, to a uniformization of our vision of the world? To quote Illitch: “A true educational system should have three objectives. All those who wish to learn must be given access to existing resources, at absolutely any period in their lives. It is then necessary that those who wish to share their knowledge are able to meet any other person who wishes to acquire it. Finally, we must allow those who have new ideas, and those who wish to go against public opinion, to be heard”. This quotation from 1971 reveals three fundamental aspects found in the modern creation of intelligence for action: the need to be informed, networking and communication. Here, we find three main aspects of the intelligence cycle as shown in Figure 2.1. For Illitch, traditional society leads to the creation of structures carrying a pre-established meaning that, in a way, conditions the individual, who has become a prisoner of these structures. The “quest for meaning” therefore becomes difficult, indeed inadvisable. In our times, complexity is becoming the rule and we should become accustomed to thinking and acting in a world where the rules of the past no longer apply, where today’s friends may become tomorrow’s competitors, where hypercompetition [DAV 95] is becoming the rule and where we can no longer focus only on disciplines linked to “business”. Traditions, history, social rules and culture should be considered when developing the economic intelligence of tomorrow. Thinking like the “other” and not wishing to impose one’s own judgement and viewpoint is

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fundamental. Hence a return to the understanding of other cultures [CLE 08a] and the necessary development of social intelligence [CLE 08b]. In this approach, we find again the desire to think differently to better perceive and analyze the world that surrounds us. We will also see in the following chapters that geopolitical analysis, influence and the prospective vision play a full part in this approach. 2.3. On the intelligence cycle The three main stages consist of acquiring information, then analyzing it, which then results in recommendations for decision-makers.

Figure 2.1. The intelligence cycle, the camel (orange), the lion (red), the child (blue). For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/dou/strategic2.zip

These stages can be likened to the three significant stages described by Nietzsche [LAP 17]. “God is dead”, means in our case freeing ourselves from all prejudices and from politically correct thought. This means making the effort to free ourselves from this “blindfold” that prevents us from seeing further to reach a state of lucidity that enables us to understand better and

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interconnect information between ourselves better, not to make predictions with certainty, but to develop scenarios that enable us to respond to the increasingly unpredictable hazards that are coming to form part of our daily life [NIE 03, WIK 18c]. In these three metaphors, Nietzsche explains how the mind becomes a camel, how the camel becomes a lion and how finally, the lion becomes a child. Transposed to the field of economic intelligence this then leads us to: – the camel: the stage of accumulating knowledge (information), without interpretation or analysis; – the lion: analyzing information by first discarding prejudices; – the child: rebirth with the creation of intelligence for action as well as recommendations. We thus find the very roots of a new interpretation of the world in the light of facts, by analyzing and integrating these into a new intellectual frame of reference. 2.4. Thinking outside the box and the iron cage The need to think differently has given rise to different visions and stances for a more critical and more nuanced development in our thinking. Here, we will examine two concepts: “thinking outside the box” and the “iron cage”. 2.4.1. Thinking outside the box Thinking outside the box consists of not remaining shut into our prejudices and received ideas. Here, we call upon the interdisciplinarity [AME 06], creativity [BIL 02] and strategic thinking that managers often lack [BIL 02]. We have given an example [QUO 17] that, if it is not really ethical, illustrates the suggestion well: “In Mumbai1, there is a group that manages an insurance service for travelling without tickets on local trains. It is a real beauty. Considering that millions of passengers are transported each

1 Formerly Bombay.

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day, the statistical chances of being caught (if one does not have a ticket) are slim. This is how it works: you pay a very low subscription to the gang each month, around 1/10th of the current rate for a monthly travel pass. You never buy a ticket, but continue to travel on the trains. If you are caught, you do not discuss the matter. You pay the fine, go to your ‘agent’, give him the receipt and obtain reimbursement from him. Everybody wins, except of course the Indian railways”. Evidently, this way of seeing the world may shock, but it illustrates a second aspect, which is that of disruption [OUT 17], that is, posing the problem in a totally different way, almost turning the classic perspective “upside down”. We can illustrate this using another example: currently, we know from different studies that the digital world and robotization will create jobs, but far fewer than those that will be destroyed by these revolutions [GIR 17]. A disruptive vision, but one that will lead us to envisage the problem in forms different to those classically used, is to say: since the number of jobs created is lower than the number destroyed, the State will give everyone a lump sum. Of course, there will be uproar over the cost, the deficit, etc., but the advantage of this disruption is that it puts the “problem on the table” and so forces discussion. 2.4.2. The iron cage This is a concept developed by Max Weber [COL 17] in The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism. In this book, Weber shows the impact of the protestant ethic on the development of capitalism. He also mentions in this development the social structure linked to it and the bureaucratic aspects that lead us to a stereotyped social behavior. This is what was called “the iron cage” when this work was translated into English. Weber in fact believes that the development of capitalism has led to the technicaleconomic organization that is shaping our society. This organization is pyramid-shaped and it will fashion the way we act and think. It is thus a prisoner in the iron cage and worse, our educational system will reproduce it endlessly, which for Weber is an obstacle to freedom of thought. This bureaucratic and administrative blockage which was described in 1904–1905 leaves us doubtful in the face of the voluble assertions of politicians who preach the “shock of simplification”. The bars of the cage must be strong

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enough for it to be only 100 years later than this aspect of blockage begins to be considered. 2.5. Holistic thinking These two ways of thinking (outside the box and the iron cage) also lead us to envisage holistic thought. In reality, the education provided today leads to linear thinking (or sequential thought). This is in some ways a flowing way of thinking that leads to the creation of sequential lists for solving a problem (for example, the steps for assembling furniture from IKEA). It is in some ways a sequence of ideas that, taken one after the other, leads to a solution. This method results in “stage by stage” work where one must solve one stage to move on to the next one. This is generally the most-used method of thinking. However, there are many others [KEL 15], but, since we cannot in this book be exhaustive in this matter, we will concentrate on holistic thought [REF 17] which, in the context of economic intelligence, can be a great help. It is a way of thinking that, beginning with a system’s components, will make it possible to visualize its overall functioning. Often, these two modes of thought are opposed [MON 07], but we say that they are not contradictory, as in some cases, one is more appropriate than the other. In 2003, Michael C. Jackson [JAC 03], in the book Systems Thinking. Creative Holism for Managers indicated: “Faced with increasing complexity, change and diversity, managers have inevitably sought the help of advisors, consultants and academics. Too often, however, managers have sold us, as panaceas, yesterday’s management methods. We are now inundated with quick solutions, such as: – scenario planning; – benchmarking; – appropriation; – value chain analysis; – continuous improvement; – total quality management; – learning organizations;

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– process re-engineering; – knowledge management; – balance score card; – customer relationship management. Unfortunately, as so many managers have discovered to their own cost, or that of their organization, these relatively simple solutions rarely work, given complexity, change and diversity. Fundamentally, simple solutions fail because they are not holistic or creative enough”. Holistic thinking is far removed from reductionism which believes a system is formed of a set of parts that must be identified to understand how it works. But, when a system becomes too complex, this approach no longer works and a more powerful system must therefore be used, that is, holistic thinking. As Joseph E. Kasser [KAS 13] indicates, the holistic approach can be defined as an approach that optimizes the system using interactions between these different sub-systems, at a given time, rather than an approach consisting of optimizing sub-systems decided from a perimeter defined to achieve optimization of the system in its entirety. In this book, the reader will find different examples and types of application for holistic thinking to solve complex problems. This way of approaching a complex context makes it possible to develop diverse tools for analysis. For example: “Any part of an organization (service, department, unit, division, team, etc.) that has played a part in the history of the whole reflects upon the whole organization and the other parts of its structure (material), its strategies, psychological games, processes (time) and results (material)” [CAR 93]. 2.6. Lateral thinking It is not possible, in the context of this work, to carry out an exhaustive analysis of methods and types of thought. But it seemed important to us to underline the place of lateral thinking in the context of analyses that can be carried out in the context of competitive intelligence. The concept of “lateral thinking” was developed in the 1960s by Edward de Bono in his book The Use of Lateral Thinking [BON 90]. This lateral thinking is associated with

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different methods of creativity that are always linked to thinking differently and off the beaten track (which is linked to the concepts of thinking outside the box, or Weber’s iron cage examined above). One of the objectives is to avoid eliminating alternative viewpoints and, as in holistic thinking, to examine a problem from different perspectives, which often makes it possible to find a viable explanation or solution without being blocked by the appearance of blind spots [KAS 13]. In a short video, de Bono [BON 17] presents the main points that underpin lateral thinking: the human brain, by analogy with a computer, functions using software developed more than 2,400 years ago; at least for western civilization, creative thought is not a gift, but can be developed through constant effort. A thought, a dogma, that moves from certitude to certitude and does not leave space for the imagination often leads to failure. For example, 2,000 years ago, the Chinese possessed gunpowder, fuses, etc., but, by not leaving room to the imagination for lateral uses, progress stopped. Similarly, to be creative does not mean being different. It is necessary for the idea, the behavior, to provide value, otherwise being different for the sake of it is not an end in itself. Error is a powerful restraint on creativity, as it is seen as penalizing when it should be considered as a meaningful experience. Provocation is a powerful tool that is completely opposed to received ideas and logical ways of thinking. This makes it possible to develop new ideas. One must think outside the box to escape the constraints laid upon our perceptions, to change the rules and put forth new ideas that would not have been developed in a conventional frame of thought. Lateral thinking has also been the source of development for different brainstorming systems, fully considering that in such systems, the suggestion of ideas and their links to one another should not, in the first stage, be subject to criticism. The aim is to obtain the greatest number of ideas without imposing one’s own. It is only later that a process of analysis (selection, creation of a hierarchy, etc.) and validation will enable selection of the most pertinent and innovative ideas and pathways. The aim is to facilitate choice and argue the decision. This method, generally carried out in a group, may be similar to methods best adapted to working remotely, such as brain writing [DUB 09] where starting with one idea, it can be circulated among individuals who each add commentaries, new ideas and new links. Similarly, this distance approach may be complemented by using the Delphi [WIK 18d] method to draw out ideas and desired developments, etc. A good example of this way of working was developed in the Korean Delphi

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[SON 17] which involved more than 25,000 experts in deciding key technologies for developing the country. We also note that the development of IT power has led to the development of specific software that make it possible to map ideas and the links between them, and to link pertinent information linked to these ideas and these links. This then facilitates the evaluation process on the one hand, but also the transmission of all the results of the brainstorming to third parties in digitized form. For this, we can list the Brain [THE 17], Personal Brain [MAR 11], Innovation Jam [COL 10], Free Mind [FRE 17], etc. 2.7. To unravel Parkinson’s law and received ideas Although not directly linked to the previous methods of thought, Parkinson’s law illustrates an aspect without doubt unknown to or hidden from bureaucratic functioning and analysis of “received ideas”. It shows how our ideological blinkers cost us dearly. 2.7.1. Parkinson’s law It was in 1955 that C. Northcote Parkinson published a book focusing on the inevitable increase in the number of workers [PAR 57]. It was based on the analysis of some inevitable increases in the number of workers at a rate of around 6% a year [WIK 18e], independently of the quantity of work to be provided or even its mere legitimacy. It is also called “the Rising Pyramid” and has resulted in expressions such as “Parkinson development of administrations”. In this way, Parkinson demonstrated a bureaucratic distortion indicating that any work tends to dilate to occupy all the time given to it; any collaborator tends to multiply the number of their subordinates and not their rivals; any organism whose workforce reaches or exceeds a thousand needs no other work than to manage its employees just to work full time. Thus, beyond a certain volume, the organization spends its time managing its own organization [PET 14]. This is applicable to businesses as well as institutions and can be likened to remarks made by Ivan Illich about schooling, or the lack of efficiency in national education [WIK 18f] in France. Olivier Guichard remarked on this that [TOU 88]: “national education is the third business in the world, after the Red Army and General Motors”.

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This aspect of the inevitable growth in the number of employees or the co-opting at a lower level of one’s own skills can be likened to the myth of the “man-month” [BRO 96]. This aspect of project management has shown that it is not necessarily by increasing workforces that we obtain the best yield. Here, we refer to a working unit, the man-month, which is a unit of management cost. The mere act of using this unit tends to make one think “that the work of an individual over n months can be carried out perfectly by n individuals in 1 month; according to this idea, one could halve development time by taking advantage of twice the number of employees. In fact, experimentally, this is false. The proverb cited by Brooks to express this idea is: “nine women do not produce one child in one month” [WIK 18g]. This quotation, which is a great classic, might liken management to work-experience students, where large firms await the arrival of work-experience students, generally over the summer, to accomplish tasks that often require the employment of one person full-time (are 11 work-experience students more or less efficient than one person employed over a year?). 2.7.2. The cost of received ideas In the book La facture des idées reçues (The Cost of Received Ideas), Fabrice Houzé [HOU 17] shows, supported by figures, how much our ideological blinkers are costing us. By using both disruption [BIL 02] and provocation [BON 90], the author shows how received ideas are often distanced from reality and how they can be circumvented and can give rise to very different propositions that lead to an opening of debate. Here we cite data that refute received ideas: – “there is a boom in the entrepreneuriat: in France, the number of real businesses created (with at least one employee) is in freefall: 39,000 in 2000, 36,000 in 2005, 33,000 in 2010, 24,000 in 2015” (but followed by a recovery in 2016); – “boycotting is not charitable: boycotting a business employing Indonesians at 1 US$ per hour to make baskets? This means forcing them to earn their living by sorting refuse for 0.5 US$ per hour”; – “very expensive education: the United Kingdom and Germany, both ranking higher than France in the PISA enquiry, each spend 30 billion euros less on education, which is 3,000 € less per pupil per year”.

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This is what was said in the preface written by Michel Godet, one of the best future specialists in France: “as Fabrice Houzé describes, unemployment is the capital crime in a country’s organization. At the same time as those who are working must toil more to support those without jobs, those denied work and higher incomes perish socially. French politicians have therefore failed. How can we do better? By returning to the sources of democracy: not to elections, but to the drawing of lots to choose those elected to the National Assembly”. This illustrates well the transgression and disruption used by Fabrice Houzé to prompt reflection on the subject. In received ideas, the author shows too how the current patent system is a mess evaluated at 30 billion dollars per year, only for the United States. We return to this aspect in the chapter on automatic analysis of patents information (Chapter 5). 2.8. The individual and their behavior A large proportion of individuals however feel that they are experiencing an increase in inequality in industrialized countries. This is true on a national scale, but it is also very sensitive at regional level and indeed, in some cases, at urban level. This is mainly due to the fact that value added, the creation of high-level jobs, is centered in the most developed locations. This poses the problem of regional rebalancing which, in the years when industrial development was increasing, occurred on a mechanical level. Development based on the use of ore and energy sources such as coal made it possible to develop factories. At first, regional inequality increased, but later, it was balanced out through industrial exchange with the rest of the region. Currently, digital industries, those based on “grey matter”, are focused mainly in cities and the most developed regions, but in the majority of cases, they are not directly linked to these regions since IT industries only result in a few exchanges with the regional environment, because immaterial goods are not geographically linked to a region. Thus, the balancing out that occurred in previous years has vanished. Because of this, inequalities will remain and worse, wealthy regions will no longer need poorer regions [DAV 15] whether to exchange merchandise or to seek a qualified workforce (in France for example, universities and research are centered in four regions). This situation is worrying, as it is catalyzed by a policy, both national and European, to place regions in competition with one another, for example with the development of intelligent specializations [EUR 15].

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One way of compensating for these differences would without doubt be to give more consideration to individual creativity, which can occur anywhere, without distinction between rich or poor regions. This aspect has been analyzed in detail by Marie-Paule Verlaeten [VER 09], who shows how creativity would permit a flowering and increased recognition for individual or group initiatives. Similarly, development would not only occur in “technologies of the future”, but the need to evolve toward different social models will lead to new behaviors and economic niches to exploit. For example, the circular economy [CES 16] is a good example of these new directions. At the same time, the individual desires to become better and better informed, thanks to search engines, for example Google, or social networks or other blogs. This conviction leads individuals to create a personal opinion often without any analysis or depth and sometimes influenced by information that is limited, manipulated or omitted. This then leads to an individualization of behavior and increasingly marked defiance of elites and the State. As the conjunction of the rise in inequality, increasing individuality and power to dispense with poor regions leads to the creation of regional pockets, at first, psychologically, but later, in reality, this is underpinned by political movements arguing for cessation. Individuals’ behavior begins to change, often intangibly; the variations between political polls and reality is witness to this. People can no longer be engaged with a particular direction without explanation, without definition and without being given a plausible vision of the objective. This is as true for politics as for a business that wishes to create partnerships or work on resolutions for achievement in the medium or long term. Moreover, at the level of regional development, this would lead to a stronger integration of civil society before projects are created, but also over the course of projects and afterwards [CES 17]. At the level of economic intelligence, which should now consider the social, cultural and historical aspects of nations or regions, these changes in behavior should no longer be exempt from analysis. This introduces additional variables that must be detected and mastered.

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2.9. Thinking about the future or a return to future studies Whether in businesses or regions, technological changes, the advent of digitization and changes in social practice, will in the coming years cause changes and ruptures, forcing today’s decision-makers to confront multiple problems. To grasp these evolutions, we are currently seeing a return to future studies, which does not mean predicting the future, but building it. In fact, as André Yves Portnoff [POR 17] indicates: “we are all coresponsible for our future”, but we can also list the definition given by the European Commission in the practical guide for regional future studies in France [EUR 02]: “Studying the future is a participatory process of developing futures possible in the medium and long term, with the aim of clarifying decisions in the present and mobilizing the methods needed to engage in shared actions. Above all, it is an attitude of mind (anticipating and wishing) and a behavior (imagining and hoping) in the service of present and future existence”. It is therefore opportune, in a chapter addressing new ways of thinking, to introduce, even briefly, the study of the future. We will do so simply, by presenting the main aspects of this discipline, then by focusing in the presentation on aspects of future studies for businesses and regional future studies. 2.9.1. General remarks on future studies In this introduction, we will use the term “futurible” [JOU 99] to mean the possible futures that will model our future. Our future is not decided and to have freedom of action, it is necessary to be able to choose, not through a more or less controlled extrapolation from the past or present, but on the contrary, in a space where possibilities of all kinds can overlap with one another to model the various scenarios that could occur. Whether we desire it or not, we are subject to changes in our environment that are predictable and almost inevitable for the coming years. Whether these are demographic changes, geopolitical evolutions, climate change, seismology or epidemics, they should be fully taken into account when creating scenarios. These invariants, both natural and societal, are not the only ones to consider: technological ruptures, ultrafast developments of some

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technologies [JOU 16] (digitization, connected objects, new materials, etc.) and their influence on products, services and consumer habits should also be considered. This builds a predictive space that can be mastered, whether by observation, by actors’ “serendipity” or by an adapted methodology. In this universe, time plays a vital role. Those who operate in the short term limit their choices to the demands of the moment and work in a chaotic market, whether for businesses or regions. They are led to react relatively easily, as they have not predicted and anticipated possible changes. 2.9.1.1. How do we take part in a foresight approach? In this aspect, we find the holistic approach we have already tackled. We live in a pluridisciplinary world since it is necessary to consider multiple factors that are often much removed from the business’ or regional deciders’ body of knowledge. It is also necessary to consider the time, generally a medium term between a short and a too-long term, which is not easy to apprehend, and, as we underlined above, to consider situations of abrupt change. To simplify, a simple approach can be described that should consider our overall environment. We should define what our prospective approach will be applied to, that is, its subject: – a very broad context: how the business will evolve, the geopolitics that affect it as well as competition, the region in an international context, our clients and their needs, etc.; – more restricted subjects (banks, telephones, transport, etc.), a product (car, telephone, computer, etc.). Then, the plausible variables affecting all these aspects must be set, considering too the variables linked to pressure groups and challenges for actors. We can then proceed to creating a list of these variables as in brainstorming for example, but while still taking care to provide each of them with a maximum of information considering what knowledge is accessible. To be as concrete as possible, it will be necessary to form a group of individuals whose skills, knowledge and cultures will illuminate as broadly as possible the process of configuring the most unexpected “prospective universes”. There is no question at this stage of critiquing participants’ suggestions; this stage of facing reality will come later.

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Once this list is established, we will then analyze the relationships that exist between these variables [CAR 01, IAA 05], a process during which we will demonstrate the relative weight of these variables compared to one another. As Hugues de Jouvenel explains [JOU 99], once the analysis matrix is created, the variables are allocated a coefficient, generally 1, 2 or 3 depending on the force with which a variable interacts with another, which makes it possible to obtain, for each variable, by calculating the sum of the lines and columns, an index of influence (for the sum of the lines) and an index of dependence for the system itself (for the sum of the columns). We thus acquire a good knowledge of the problem within the group of individuals engaged in the prospective action. It is then necessary to study the evolution of each of the variables and decide various possible scenarios depending on diverse interactions. Then the validation sequence will come and the possible choices that will guide the strategy (or strategies) to be developed. There are different methods of analysis that make it possible to move in a prospective universe: for more information on this subject, consult the white paper published on the topic by Bernard Besson [BES 10]. 2.9.1.2. An example of a matrix with the weight of variables In Figure 2.2, we find the group of individuals who have participated in listing the variables that fill the matrix. This filling process is qualitative and is carried out line by line. The following question must be asked: is there a relationship of direct influence between variable X and variable Y? If one variable in a column has an influence on a line variable, we write 1 at the intersection of the column and the line and if there is no relationship of influence, we write 0. This matrix could then be represented in Figure 2.3 in graph form to indicate which are the most important variables in the system studied. 2.9.2. Foresight in business A business without foresight cannot develop a coherent strategy. Very many examples show how businesses with considerable international notoriety have, in a very short time, been led to partial failure through a lack of foresight. But to engage the business in this path, it will be necessary to change mindsets and change the business’ culture and find the budgets needed without being able to evaluate the return on investment.

Figure 2.2. Influence of diverse factors on the working hours of teachers in an educational establishment [IAA 05]

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Figure 2.3. Representation of the previous matrix in graph form

Currently, two approaches to prospective in business can be distinguished. One is holistic, which involves the business’ environment and which makes it possible to detect the evolutions that will impact this environment, whether global or within sectors. This method is only rarely used in France [DIE 16]. The other is more targeted, mainly involves breakthrough innovations, is more sector-based, and is psychologically easier for businesses to tackle. Examples The business Veolia, via various subsidiaries such as “Éco-environnement” is open to foresight. Éric Lesieur, director of this firm, indicated in 2010 “that in Veolia’s four activities: water, energy, cleaning, that is waste management, and transport, Veolia Environnement is also endowed with an independent prospective institute that operates with a committee bringing together personalities from many institutional or academic domains: two Nobel Prizes, Monsieur Pachauri under the GIEC on climate change and Amartya Sen, Nobel Prize for economics (IDH index on human development). This prospective committee helps the Veolia group and partners of the Veolia group to understand, and to try to discern the

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evolution of the context in which the business will produce its new solutions. This foresight committee makes it possible to arrange a network of international experts in very many domains. We have spoken of the hard and soft sciences. The experts with whom we work come from the following domains: economics, healthcare, history, sociology, demography, etc. I have forgotten many” [SEN 10]. In the case of the firm Renault, it is creativity and innovation that are evident, although the overall process arises from foresight. In fact, a Renault [REN 17] antenna has been placed in Silicon Valley to carry out surveillance operations with the main economic actors and the universities of Stanford and Berkeley, research centers or businesses such as Google, Intel, etc. At the same time, a creativity and innovation laboratory (LCI) has been developed within the firm. Renault makes creativity more dynamic via Renault’s creative people which has the aim, among others, of creating plausible scenarios for the future, such as: “It is still not defined, but this could for example be ‘what if in 2044 Renault manufactures nothing but robots’. Our ambition is to make sustainable mobility accessible to everyone, we could imagine designing ‘auxiliary mobility robots’, but also exoskeletons, or even android mobility companions. Nobody knows the future: let us enjoy ourselves inventing it!” But, such prospective approaches are a long way from being present in the majority of French business. It is necessary to arrive at such an objective, to change mindsets profoundly, to take risks, to invest in the future without a direct return on investment – in brief, to have the desire to act in the long term to make the business’ activities sustainable when short-termism is often the rule, paired with pyramidal management. It is necessary to consider new ideas and to “set in motion” all the processes that make it possible to think differently. It is therefore a partial managerial revolution that should be started. Finally, we cannot speak of prospective in business without mentioning the case of the firm Kodak, which was not able to predict the shift from analog to digital photography [LUC 09], or that of the firm Blackberry confronted with the iPhone with a consequent loss of turnover shown in Figure 2.4 and a partially necessary reconversion to software [GUE 11].

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Figure 2.4. Blackberry’s turnover in millions of dollars

2.9.3. Regional prospective We saw previously that the development of regional fragmentation is becoming a reality. In such a framework, and since fewer and fewer resources will be transferred to balance development, a solution is needed. Regions should be aware that they are masters of their own destiny and that although some regions will decline, others will develop. It is therefore becoming necessary, beyond political actors, to mobilize all minds to identify possibilities for regional development. In fact, endogenous forces and the effects of developing technologies are likely to stimulate new dynamics and new development scenarios. It is necessary to master so far as possible the factors of change that are feeding this uncertainty [BAR 13]: globalization, urbanization, increasing mobility, the acceleration of timespans, the consumption of natural resources, climate change, decentralization, economic changes, the restructuring of public services and the state. It is in this context that regional foresight belongs, analyzing strengths and weaknesses, mobilizing projects as well as the levers that enable their development. In brief, regional foresight will make it possible to

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mobilize energy and delineate possible futures for the region. These possible futures then make it possible, through a process of reasoned selection, to implement diverse development strategies and policies. But it will often be necessary to place prospective actions in a normalized context for regional, contracted steps, as in CPER [WIK 18h], DTA [WIK 18i], SRADT [SRA 15], SCOT [WIK 18j], PLU [WIK 18k], Agenda 21 [AGE 92], etc. This stacking up of structures often leads to citizens being distanced from governing bodies and it is a stumbling block that should as far as possible be avoided in any foresight exercise; the weighting of these structures should remain limited, although in many cases, this remains a good intention and is a restraint upon any real foresight approach that leads to applicable strategies. In fact, this set of constraints leads the local political system to appropriate foresight to the detriment of civil society. There are however examples where foresight is organized to influence decisions. Thus, to this situation we can apply the notion of foresight successfully, as described by Gaston Berger: “Foresight is neither a doctrine, nor a system. It is a reflection on the future, that is used to describe its most general structures and which aims to identify the elements of a method applicable to our rapidly moving world. Indeed, this description makes it appear that the future is quite different to what is commonly believed.” [BER 60] Generally, regional foresight is organized around a “state of play” followed by a series of hypotheses on the region’s probable development. In the first approach, observers of all kinds, discussion of ideas and the consultation of experts, will feed the development of “regional cartography” in a broader sense, since it will encompass material resources (businesses, groups of businesses, polarized interests, transport, communications, hospitals, schools, colleges, universities, public spaces, etc.), immaterial resources (expertise, research, education, associations, professional bodies, culture, etc.), specific social conditions (employment, pockets of poverty, a region’s geographical structure and demography, etc.) as well as “inevitable” changes over the chosen timespan, for example the effects of climate change on culture, leisure, access to water, severe weather events. If, in the region, there are bodies such as CESER, (Economic, Social and Environmental Regional Council) these might be brought to contribute, albeit on condition that their role does not become more dominant than that of civil society.

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Hypotheses on the development that will follow the initial collection of information are also the focus of a working group, taking good care not to reject out of hand options that might seem utopian. This group could be established as a foresight group and should represent civil society. It is formed of individuals with very diverse expertise, which makes it possible to contrast ideas and experiences. One must pay great attention to the group’s composition, as this will influence all the prospective scenarios that will develop. One should draw attention to the fact that, in a single region, different prospective actions may be developed by diverse entities [FUR 07] such as the CCI, local authorities, associations, etc. These diverse instances of foresight generally tackle a specific subject, but although they may be complementary, they are generally staggered over time. One should therefore avoid giving too much weight to some future prospective rather than others, as they are generally sectorial. The problem will be to integrate them into a whole and create constructive syntheses from these elements. 2.9.3.1. Retrospective analysis of foresight [PLA 02] In some cases, it is a good idea to carry out a retrospective analysis of the prospection. This happened in the case of the unacceptable scenario developed by DATAR in 1970. Figure 2.5 shows explicitly that the unacceptable nonetheless (partially?) happened. So, what about public policies for regional development?

Figure 2.5. The unacceptable scenario (left), the French population in 2009 (right)

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It is through retrospective analysis that we can try to understand earlier changes, hence an advocacy for a prospective application at regional level and the appropriation by citizens of its future. Creating links, capitalizing on the synergy of competences and current or future methods, to boost development policies and avoid repetition of past errors: this is the objective regional prospective should set itself. 2.10. Conclusion This introduction is not exhaustive, as the subject is important enough to have inspired copious writing. It shows that the development of economic intelligence can no longer be achieved based on reflection or analysis, on preconceived ideas acquired in previous years. It is necessary to better understand and interpret the changes underway. Inside a business and more specifically inside industrial businesses as well as in regions, it is necessary to innovate. This innovation process involves mechanisms quite different to those commonly accepted, whether this is in the role of the university [DOU 16] or in the development of frugal innovation [DOU 15] for example. This also means that even if the objective of economic intelligence remains the same as in previous years, its teaching and practice should be carried out on the new bases that should be developed with different modes of thinking. We may not be at war, but we are faced with a world in flux, with different rules, often modelled by policy and so unpredictable if the points of intellectual reference do not change [FOU 17]2. It is becoming a grave error to consider the world in the context of linear extrapolation especially with regards to exports, where customers are different. We must learn to think like our partners, indeed our competitors in the context of organized coopetition [DAG 07]. Currently, the reversal of alliances, the crumbling of globalization in the face of win-win bilateral agreements, the already-forecast disintegration of large geographical bodies into semi-independent entities amount to upheavals that should be considered [AME 06]. Wealthy regions no longer wish to pay to support poorer ones, internal redistribution within the nation and ensured by the state is being questioned, in Europe redistribution between states is falling, the development of larger and larger metropolises will occur at the expense of 2 It is worth mentioning here, the questioning of the TPP (TransPacific Partnership) by Donald Trump, who, influenced by the USA, passed bilateral agreements, leaving much room for the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) influenced by China.

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spaces outside them, the development of inequality leads individuals to distance themselves from the state. As Laurent Davezies [DAV 15] remarked, “yesterday, the Great Lakes car industry provided work for the whole of America, today Hollywood only provides work for Los Angeles”. This predicted fragmentation will therefore lead to profound upheavals and so to a different vision for interactions between political, geographical and economic wholes. At the same time, the individual can be informed more easily through diverse, often biased sources that introduce him or her to the notion of independence and of rejection of the state and so of “elites” while at the same time requiring protection, two opposing facts that are confusing political trends. At the Davos meetings, the PwC society carried out a wide-ranging series of interviews on this subject [VAL 17]. The conclusion is unambigious: “The UK’s exit from the European Union and Donald Trump’s victory in the United States has revealed a general discontent with job losses in some sectors and a rise in inequality in western societies. Globalization and new technologies have exacerbated these trends; the whole being associated with profound mistrust of the establishment”. This aspect is even more worrying, as the development of means of accessing information is expanding, whether it is information indexed by Google and research engines, social networks, blogs or tweets. False ideas, biased information and a craving for sensationalism thus circulate, along with a need for immediacy that prevents reasoned thought. This situation should lead to reflection on the way in which searches for information should be carried out, on validation processes, on group work permitting very different viewpoints to lead to the creation of knowledge for action for businesses and administrations. It is in this context that foresight, both for businesses and regions, acquires its full meaning. How will public policy for economic intelligence evolve in France? The centralized state that had hitherto been in charge of it has given up this role by appointing a strategic information and economic security commissioner (CISSE) [CIS 16] linked to the minister responsible for the economy. In a context of regional competition in France, but also between European regions, economic intelligence should be situated closer to places of development and

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to citizens, considering regional peculiarities and instituting a governance that will no longer work “top down” but “bottom up” . It is on this condition that economic intelligence could continue to be effective, contradicting the worries of a state that, for many citizens, has failed. We might then witness civil society taking its own development in hand and doing so without state control. This trend develops in the context of a reasoned regional intelligence. One example of this situation is the development of a business parliament in the French department of the Var [PVE 15]; this body, developed by civil society, is a unique initiative in France, but it could easily become widespread. Currently, this parliament, the bearer of projects and new ideas has a good relationship with the Conseil département (regional council), which is the regional political body, but what will happen if this is no longer the case? In an uncertain, troubled and for some, less and less predictable future, we need to create the synergy of skills, the cultural LCD3 [FRI 13] that will enable better understanding of “things”, placing citizens at the service of their own destiny. 2.11. References [AGE 92] AGENDA 21, Plan d’action pour le XXIe siècle adopté en 1992 par 173 chefs d’État au sommet de la Terre, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, June 5–30, 1992. [AME 06] AMEY M.-J., BROWN D.-F., “Breaking out of the box: Interdisciplinary collaboration and faculty work”, IAP, 2006. [BAR 13] BARTHE L., “Enjeux de la prospective territoriale”, Territoires durables, 2013, available at: http://www.territoires-durables.fr/prospective-territorialedefinition-et-enjeux. [BER 60] BERGER G., “Méthode et résultats”, Revue prospective, no. 6, pp. 2–3, 1960. [BES 10] BESSON B., DESCHAMP C., ANDRIAMIAMINA H. et al., Méthodes d’analyse appliquées à l’intelligence économique, White paper, 2010, available at: http:// bdc.aege.fr/public/Methodes_d_analyse_appliquees_a_l_Intelligence_ Economique_ Livre_Blanc_Icomtcch.pdf. [BIL 02] BILTON C., LEARY R., “What can managers do for creativity? Brokering creativity in the creative industries”, International Journal of Cultural Policy, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 49–64, 2002. [BON 90] DE BONO E. (ed.), The Use of Lateral Thinking, Penguin Books, London, 1990.

3 Lowest common denominator.

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[BON 17] DE BONO E., “La pensée latérale et la pensée créative, une présentation vidéo par Edward de Bono”, creativite.net, 2017, available at: http://www. creativite.net/pensee-laterale-edward-de-bono-video/. [BRO 96] BROOKS JR F.-P., Le mythe du mois-homme, Essais sur le génie logiciel, Addison-Wesley, Boston, 1996. [CAM 48] CAMUS A., “Ni victimes ni bourreaux”, Combat, 1948, available at: https://inventin.lautre.net/livres/Camus-Ni-victimes-ni-bourreaux.pdf. [CAR 93] CARDON A., “L’approche holistique en organisation, Méta système”, Transactional Analysis Journal, vol. 23, pp. 66–69, 1993. [CES 16] CESER (CONSEIL ÉCONOMIQUE SOCIAL ET ENVIRONNEMENT RÉGIONAL) PROVENCE-ALPES-CÔTE D’AZUR, Avis sur l’économie circulaire, 2016, available at: http://s244543015.onlinehome.fr/ciworldwide/?p=1929. [CES 17] CESER (CONSEIL ÉCONOMIQUE SOCIAL ET ENVIRONNEMENT RÉGIONAL) PROVENCE-ALPES-CÔTE D’AZUR, Avis sur l’intelligence territoriale, 2017, available at: http://www.ceserpaca.fr/nouvelles/sites-internet/faq/detail-actualite. html?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=1877&tx_ttnews[type]=3. [CIS 16] CISSE, “Un commissaire à l’information stratégique et à la sécurité économique”, economie.gouv.fr, 2016, available at: http://www.economie.gouv.fr/institutiond-un-commissaire-a-l-information-strategique-et-a-la-securite-economiques. [CLE 08a] CLERC P., “La culture au cœur des rapports de forces économiques”, Diplomatie, 2008. [CLE 08b] CLERC P., “L’intelligence sociale, nouveau territoire de l’intelligence économique ?”, in M.-A. DUVAL (ed.), Les nouveaux territoires de l’intelligence économique : Juridique, financière, culturelle, humanitaire, sociale, sportive, Institut de l’intelligence économique, Paris, 2008. [COL 10] COLLABORATIF-INFO, Innovation : Nekoé ouvre sa communauté pour un brainstorming géant, 2010, available at: http://www.collaboratif-info. fr/actualite/innovation-nekoe-ouvre-sa-communaute-pour-un-brain-storming-geant. [COL 17] COLE N.-L., “Understanding Max Weber’s Iron Cage”, ThoughtCo, 2017, available at: https://www.thoughtco.com/understanding-max-webers-iron-cage3026373. [DAG 07] DAGNINO G.B., LE ROY F., YAMI S., “La dynamique des stratégies de coopétition”, Revue française de gestion, vol. 7, pp. 87–98, 2007. [DAV 95] D’AVENI R.-A., Hypercompétition, Vuibert, Paris, 1995. [DAV 15] DAVEZIES L., Le nouvel égoïsme territorial : Le grand malaise des nations, Le Seuil, Paris, 2015.

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[DIE 16] DIENA A., “Pourquoi les entreprises doivent prédire leur futur pour survivre”, Usbek et Rica, no. 14, 2016. [DOU 15] DOU H., L’intelligence économique à l’heure du Jugaad : Intelligence économique et innovation frugale, 2015, available at: https://www.amazon. fr/LIntelligence-Economique-lheure-Jugaad-Intelligence/dp/ 1514717611. [DOU 16] DOU H., “Innovation et Industrialisation : Un enjeu pour la France”, Vie et Sciences de l’Entreprise, no. 201, pp. 167–181, 2016, available at: http://s244543015.onlinehome.fr/ciworldwide/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/vse-201_ juin-2016-dou-henri.pdf. [DUB 09] DUBACHER C., “Brainwriting ou quand le cerveau écrit des idées”, 2009, available at: http://www.universdetravail.ch/fr/2009/11/brainwriting-ou-quand-lecerveau-ecrit-des-idees-methode-635/. [EUR 02] EUROPEAN COMMISSION, Guide pratique de la prospective territoriale en France, 2002. [EUR 15] EUROP’ACT, Synthesis for the research and innovation. Strategies for smart specialisation of French regions: Knowing 2014–2020, 2015, available at: http:// www.cget.gouv.fr/sites/cget.gouv.fr/files/atoms files/cget_sri_si_en-12-2015.pdf. [FOU 17] FOURNIÉ P., DOU H., “L’Indonésie à la croisée des chemins”, R2IE Revue internationale d’intelligence économique, vol. 9, no. 1, pp. 103–128, 2017. [FRE 17] FREEMIND, Software, 2017, available at: https://freemind.fr.softonic.com/. [FRI 13] FRIMOUSSE S., PERETTI J.-M., “Regards croisés sur la négociation dans le contexte numérique”, Questions de management, vol. 3, pp. 99–118, 2013. [FUR 07] FURNY M.-C., DENIZOT D., “La prospective territoriale, révélateur et outil d’une action publique territorialisée”, in R. DIDIER, A. ROUYER, R. SECHET (eds), Territoires en action et dans l’action, Presses universitaires de Rennes, Rennes, 2007. [GIR 17] GIROUX A., “L’économie numérique véritable vecteur d’emplois ?”, Le Journal du Net, 2017, available at: http://www.journaldunet.com/ebusiness/ expert/59280/l-economie-numerique--veritable-vecteur-d-emplois.shtml. [GUE 11] GUEUGNEAU R., “En pleine reconversion, Blackberry se cherche une nouvelle identité”, Les Échos, vol. 22, p. 4, 2011. [HOU 17] HOUZÉ F., La facture des idées reçues, Odile Jacob, Paris, 2017. [ILL 05] ILLICH I., Une société sans école, œuvres complètes, Fayard, Paris, vol. 1, 2005. [JAC 03] JACKSON M.C., Systems Thinking. Creative Holism for Managers, John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, 2003.

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[JOU 99] JOUVENEL H. (ed.), “La démarche prospective : Un bref guide méthodologique”, Revue futuribles, no. 247, 1999, (updated in 2002). [JOU 16] JOUVENEL F. (ed.), “Rapport Vigie 2016. Futurs possibles à l’horizon 2030–2050”, Futuribles International, Paris, p. 540, 2016. [JUI 13] JUILLET A., “Définition de l’intelligence économique”, Portail de l’IE, 2013, available at: https://portail-ie.fr/resource/fondateurs/621/alain-juillet. [KAS 13] KASSER J.-E., “Holistic thinking: Creating innovative solutions to complex problems”, The Right Requirement, no. 212, p. 471, 2013. [KEL 15] KELLY J., “Types of thinking”, The Peak Performance Center, 2015, available at: http://thepeakperformancecenter.com/educational-learning/thinking/ types-of-thinking-2/. [LAP 17] LA PHILO, Nietzsche, la mort de Dieu et la naissance de l’homme, 2017, available at: https://la-philosophie.com/dieu-est-mort-nietzsche. [LUC 09] LUCAS H.-C., GOH J.-M., “Disruptive technology: How Kodak missed the digital photography revolution”, The Journal of Strategic Information Systems, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 46–55, 2009. [MAR 94] MARTRE H. (ed.), Intelligence économique et stratégie des entreprises, La Documentation française, Paris, 1994, available at: http://www .ladocumentationfrancaise.fr/var/storage/ rapports-publics/074000410.pdf. [MAR 11] MARCOUX L., “Personal Brain : Logiciel de brainstorming, conception et organisation de données”, designer-entreprise.com, 2011, available at: http://designer-entreprise.com/2011/07/16/logiciel-de-brainstorming-conceptionet-organisation-de-donnees/. [MON 07] MONGA A.-B., JOHN D.-R., “Cultural differences in brand extension evaluation: The influence of analytic versus holistic thinking”, Journal of Consumer Research, vol. 33, no. 4, pp. 529–536, 2007. [NIE 03] NIETZSCHE F., Ainsi parlait Zaratoustra, un livre pour tous et pour personne, Mercure de France, Paris, 1903. [OUT 17] OUT OF THE BOX, “Comment penser ‘out of the box’ ?”, 2017, available at: http://www.out-the-box.fr/comment-penser-out-of-the-box/. [PAR 57] PARKINSON C.N., Parkinson’s Law and Other Studies in Administration, The Riverside Press, Rolling Meadows, 1957. [PET 14] PETITE-ENTREPRISE.NET, “Management : La loi de Parkinson pour travailler moins et mieux”, 2014, available at: http://www.petite-entreprise.net/P3933-81-G1-management-la-loi-de-parkinson-pour-travailler-moins-et-mieux.html.

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[PLA 02] PLASSARD F., “Une approche rétrospective de la prospective : Le scénario de l’inacceptable”, Géocarrefour, vol. 77, no. 2, pp. 197–214, 2002, available at: http://www.persee.fr/doc/geoca_1627-4873_2002_num_77_2_1571. [POR 17] PORTNOFF A.-Y., “Approche de la révolution de l’intelligence”, Innovation Park, Geneva, Switzerland, January 18, 2017. [PVE 15] PVE (PARLEMENT VAROIS DES ENTREPRISES), Website, 2015, available at: http://www.parlementdesentreprises.fr/. [QUO 17] QUORA, “Sarcasm: What are some of the best examples of thinking out of the box?”, 2017, available at: https://www.quora.com/Sarcasm-What-are-some-ofthe-best-examples-of-thinking-out-of-the-box. [RAC 09] RACOUCHOT B., “Stratégies d’influence, le décryptage d’Alain Juillet”, Communication & Influence, Special edition no. 1, June 5, 2009, available at: http://www.communicationetinfluence.fr/2009/06/05/dossier-hors-serie-n-1-juin2009-strategies-dinfluence-le-decryptage-dalain-juillet/. [REF 17] REFERENCE, What is holistic thinking?, 2017, available at: https://www.reference.com/world-view/holistic-thinking-71825abaad1c20ca. [REN 17] RENAULT GROUP, “La créativité au service de l’innovation”, 2017, available at: https://group.renault.com/passion/innovation/renault-laudace-dansles-genes/creativite/. [SEN 10] SÉNAT, Parlement et prospective : Regards croisés, Actes de l’atelier de prospective du 28 janvier 2010, Information report, 2010, available at: https://www.senat.fr/ rap/r09-270/r09-2707.html. [SON 17] SONG J.-G., “The Korean experience, The Korean Delphi, analyse concernant les technologies clés et développée STEPI projet HAN”, STEPI, 2017, available at: http://www.stepi.re.kr/file/STEPI_Brochure_Final_ENG(0105). pdf. [SRA 15] SRADT, Le schéma régional d’aménagement et de développement durable du territoire, 2015, available at: http://www.vie-publique.fr/ documentsvp/sradt.pdf. [THE 17] THE BRAIN, website, 2017, available at: http://www.thebrain.com/. [TOU 88] TOUTLEMONDE B., Petite histoire d’un grand ministère : L’éducation nationale, Albin Michel, Paris, 1988. [VAL 17] VALERO J., “Société PwC, Davos”, EUROACTIV, 2017, available at: http://www.euractiv.fr/section/euro-finances/news/business-leaders-optimisticabout-future-despite-popular-discontent/?nl_ref=29018265.

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[VER 09] VERLAETEN M.-P., “La créativité”, Ciworldwide think tank, 2009, available at: http://s244543015.onlinehome.fr/ciworldwide/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/mpvcreativite.pdf. [WIK 18a] WIKIPEDIA, “Allegory of the Cave”, 2018, available at: https://en. wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegory_of_the_Cave. [WIK 18b] WIKIPEDIA, “Allégorie de la Caverne”, 2018, available at: https://fr. wikipedia.org/wiki/All%C3%A9gorie_de_la_caverne. [WIK 18c] WIKIPEDIA, “Ainsi parlait Zarathoustra”, 2018, available at: https://fr.wikisource.org/wiki/Ainsi_parlait_Zarathoustra/Premi%C3%A8re_partie/ Les_trois_m%C3%A9tamorphoses. [WIK 18d] WIKIPEDIA, “Méthode Delphi”, 2018, available at: https://fr. wikipedia.org/ wiki/M%C3%A9thode_Delphi. [WIK 18e] WIKIPEDIA, “Loi de Parkinson”, 2018, available at: https://fr.wikipedia. org/wiki/Loi_de_Parkinson. [WIK 18f] WIKIPEDIA, “Ministère de l’Éducation nationale (France)”, 2018, available at: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minist%C3%A8re_de_l'%C3%89ducation_nationale_ (France). [WIK 18g] WIKIPEDIA, “Le Mythe du mois-homme”, 2018, available at: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Mythe_du_mois-homme. [WIK 18h] WIKIPEDIA, “CPER, Contrat de plan État-région”, 2018, available at: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contrat_de_plan_%C3%89tat-r%C3%A9gion. [WIK 18i] WIKIPEDIA, “Directive territoriale d’aménagement”, 2018, available at: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Directive_territoriale_d%27am%C3%A9nage-ment. [WIK 18j] WIKIPEDIA, “Schéma de cohérence territoriale”, 2018, available at: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sch%C3%A9ma_de_coh%C3%A9rence_territoriale. [WIK 18k] WIKIPEDIA, “Plan local d’urbanisme”, 2018, https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plan_local_d%27urbanisme.

available

at:

[ZHA 16] ZHANG J., “What’s driving China’s One Belt, One Road initiative?”, East Asia Forum, September 2, 2016.

3 Innovation

The term “innovation” in itself has often been used incorrectly, being of ten confused with innovation, creativity, invention, research, etc. Before we explore the domain further, it is a good idea to remind ourselves of a number of definitions to clarify our discussion, but also to focus our minds on those aspects of innovation that involve economic intelligence and strategy [DIE 14]. 3.1. Some definitions – Imagination: it has no anchor in reality, and by turning all constraints into abstractions, it leaves room for the imagination to think of solutions, developments and activities that in fact have little or no basis in reality. – Creativity: there are very many definitions of creativity, although they are not contradictory, many authors adapt the definition to the problems they have to solve. According to Wikipedia, a general definition would be the following: “an individual or group’s capacity to imagine or build and indeed implement a new concept, or object or to discover an original solution to a problem” [WIK 18a]. On a practical level, real creativity means implementing a practical application. Initially, this will call on divergent thinking, where solutions, links between ideas, etc. will be developed, then on convergent thinking to draw out possible solutions. Creativity can also be stimulated by brainstorming exercises during which, in the shortest amount of time, the largest number of ideas and links between these ideas will be suggested, but a diverse group of actors should be chosen so as not to have a

Strategic Intelligence for the Future 2: A New Information Function Approach, First Edition. Henri Dou, Alain Juillet and Philippe Clerc. © ISTE Ltd 2019. Published by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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single vision of the problem to be solved (which should be well identified before the brainstorming begins). – Research: should not be confused with innovation. It is a process that leads to the production of knowledge. – Invention: this is very similar to innovation, but an invention can be devoid of any commercial application, that is it will not necessarily lead to the creation of a product. It is not necessarily linked to a market. – Innovation: this is the transformation of “inventions into costs” according to Lewis Duncan [DUN 17]. In reality, in the context of innovation, two levels will be distinguished: first research and invention, then transforming the results of research on an invention into products or services likely to bring in revenue. Various types of innovation can be distinguished, which will be detailed at more length. 3.2. The innovation mechanism Without going into detail and referring to the work of the European Union in this domain, two stages can be distinguished in the innovation process [ETZ 08]. The first is funding by linking research and teaching laboratories that will thus produce knowledge and expertise. The second stage consists of transforming this knowledge and expertise into products and services likely to be accepted by the market and if possible exported. With current competition and the crisis we are experiencing, it is no longer possible to be confined by ethical or political conviction at the first stage. This should of course be completed by the second stage. Being able to control the directions that research takes on a national and regional level largely ensures that the second level succeeds, that is the integration of knowledge created by national efforts at the economic level of maintaining or creating jobs. The best example of this process has been indicated by Elias Zerhouni (currently President for Global Research and Development on the Sanofi company) when he was the director of the National Institute of Health in the US:

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“The success of American scientific research depends on the existing, implicit partnership between academic research, the government and industry. Research institutions have the responsibility to develop scientific capital. The Government finances the best teams through a transparent selection system. Industry holds the critical role of developing robust products intended for the public. This strategy is the key of American competitiveness and must be maintained”. This is why many reports present innovation as one of the keystones of development and the creation of competitive advantages: the “Innovate America” report [COU 07] (United States), the Beffa [BEF 05] (France) report, the report by Innovation Canada, ‘Le pouvoir d’agir’ (the power to act) [INN 01], the Australian Government’s Innovation Report [AUS 07], etc. This innovation mechanism will thus lead to the development of the “triple helix”, that is to the development of public/private partnerships (PPP) [OEC 04], in other words, to the birth of “clusters” or poles of competition in France. In fact, it is at the interface of the public/private sphere and of research that the best opportunity for innovation lies.

Figure 3.1. Triple helix and PPP

It should however be noted that currently, there is a critical trend for public/private partnerships. Some believe that this system introduces a number of inflexibilities at the administrative and legal levels that restrict the development of innovation.

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3.3. Different types of innovation In the Oslo [OEC 05] manual, developed by OECD and addressing innovation, we distinguish four types of innovation, to which a fifth must be added: frugal innovation. Remember that innovation does not only involve the field of research, but also the fields of all users, providers, and consumers. It will be applied to businesses, administrations, associations, etc. It is not geographically localized. – Product innovation: this corresponds to the introduction of a new goods or services. This definition includes significant improvements to technical specifications, components and material, to integrated software, user friendliness or other functional characteristics. – Process innovation: this is the implementation of a new or significantly improved production or distribution method. This notion involves significant changes in techniques, material and/or software. – Marketing innovation: this is the implementation of a new marketing method involving significant changes in a product’s design, condition, placement, promotion or pricing. – Organization innovation: this is the application of a new method for organization of practice, organization of the workplace or of relationships with those outside the company. – We add frugal innovation or Jugaad innovation, which consists of doing better with less, aiming for simplicity while considering the needs of the mass of users with low income, while retaining quality. 3.3.1. The development of innovation Inside these different fields of applications, it will be necessary to distinguish methods for developing innovation. It is in this framework that breakthrough innovation, incremental innovation and open innovation will be considered. 3.3.1.1. Breakthrough innovation This will replace what currently exists with something new. It introduces a break with what now exists and opens up a new field of application, on a technical level, the introduction of a new technology. For example, the vaccine against rabies developed by Pasteur. Before the vaccine, the disease

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was fatal, but since the invention of the vaccine, people now survive it. In many cases, a breakthrough innovation will lead to incremental innovations, and so to the development of cluster innovation. 3.3.1.2. Incremental innovation This involves successive improvements to a product or the development, step by step, of technologies and skills either through endogenous development, or through exogenous development. This is what happened in South Korea which, starting from a subsistence agronomy around the 1960s, has now reached tenth place in the world. In fact, to reach an objective, it is always necessary to overcome a barrier to potential, whether technological, in research or in the creation of skills. This cannot occur very quickly, as in this case, the barrier to potential is too great and the project will fail. Take for example, the development of a medium-haul aircraft in Indonesia, which to our knowledge resulted in the development of only a few models.

Figure 3.2. Development of incremental innovation

The schema of Figure 3.2 applies for all types of innovation. For example, if we wish to progress from FDI (Foreign Direct Investments), real progress in assimilating technology can only be made if competencies have been developed (for engineers, technicians, managers, etc.) to able to understand and assimilate it. This is what happened in Malaysia for example, with the development of a national car, the “Proton”.

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3.3.1.3. Open innovation It was soon observed that if innovation remained the sole responsibility of a business’ staff, there would be a lack of vision resulting from sheer “incestuousness”. So gradually, new personnel became associated with the innovation process: providers, customers and even potential consumers, which could result in external technology insourcing or external expertise (exogenous development). Thus, business opened itself up to innovate better, collect new ideas and better grasp new needs. This has given rise, in the same order of thinking as LLs (Living Labs) for example. The image of a funnel has often been used with incomers who are assimilated into the existing market or to create new markets and/or products.

Figure 3.3. Open innovation

3.3.1.4. Frugal innovation or Jugaad innovation This is a new type of innovation, created in India and in developing countries. It is an innovation that aims to satisfy the needs of individuals on low incomes, but by providing them with simple and good quality products. Some countries such as India, or developing countries, among some in Africa, have provided the ground for a detailed analysis of what is now convenient to call frugal innovation, or Jugaad innovation1 [NAV 13] (self1 Jugaad is a popular Hindi term that can be translated as “an innovative, improvised solution, born of ingeniousness and intelligence”. It is the art of boldness, of seeing opportunities and acting quickly, of finding ingenious solutions with simple means (according to the website Encyclo-ecolo, available at: https://www.encyclo-ecolo.com/Jugaad).

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help, DIY). One might also consult the book Intelligence économique à l’heure du Jugaad [DOU 15] which develops the key points for frugal innovation in detail. In fact, more and more voices are coming forward in France to say that our businesses should find broad opportunities for development by “hunting” in emergent markets. But the attempt to conquer these markets implies that it will be necessary to modify a number of behaviors for western business to be able to meet the needs of the new “middle” classes whose income is often in the order of 20,000 € (23,000 dollars) per year. Once these new behaviors are acquired, they can be transposed to western countries, the cradles for these businesses. Through frugal innovation, we again meet the basic concepts of circular economy. The principles of Jugaad innovation have been described in many publications and works and they showcase a number of traits, most of which relate directly to innovations developed by Indian, Chinese, African businesses, etc. India, the special case of this type of innovation, has been studied broadly and the following characteristic traits have been underlined: – doing more with less, this is often the way of meeting the needs of consumers who wish to satisfy a need without being offered endless “improvements” that are desirable for the manufacturer but not necessarily required by the customer. Meeting needs at the least cost by being aided cleverly by existing technologies; – thinking and behaving flexibly, this means above all knowing how to adapt to the demands of the market, without wishing to impose on them ever more complex and expensive solutions or products. Taking account of and knowing how to use the complex regulations that are endlessly appearing, whether for “consumer protection” or to erect barriers to entering certain markets; – aiming for simplicity, in the western world and especially in France, aiming for simplicity seems simplistic, hence the need to complexify things that are simple for them to be recognized, whether at the level of research, teaching, or industry. Western design offices are often disconnected from their customer bases and are developing ever more complex products and services, then they try to impose them on consumers via mass advertising; – integrating the marginalized and excluded, that is building on the ever larger masses of consumers, whose income is nevertheless comparable to that of westerners. Also considering existing niches, for example creating products for the aged [DOU 13b] (the silver age), without heading

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systematically toward electronics and interconnected objects, but while considering all their needs. 3.4. Restraints on developing innovation A number of “classical” restraints are often presented, such as the NIH (Not Invented Here) complex, a narrow vision, focused on a market or on a product, this is the case for example with the Xeros business that developed the laser printer and the graphic interface internally. But Xeros’ management, focused on a single product and market, the photocopier, did not develop these technologies and they spread, leaving their creators (HP for laser printing, Apple for the graphic interface). This is even more damaging, as often one of the restraints on innovation is the initial cost, and in Xeros’ case, this stage had already been accomplished. Another restraint is the fact that innovating can initially be perceived by the business as a leap into the unknown, it is therefore necessary to make this leap, which is generally done by the head of the business or of top management for the most substantial businesses. For a business that already has a market and adapted products, the move via incremental innovation will be facilitated. They will be not be leaping into the unknown and will remain in a domain that has already been mastered. Nonetheless, businesses with financial capacity or a new, start-up type business will more easily employ breakthrough innovation; in the case of start-ups, it is one of the characteristics of their development. But beyond these considerations, it is a new state of mind that must be acquired, both to open up more broadly to external developments and knowledge and to be aware of opportunities. Moreover, it should not be thought that restraints on innovation are located in precise “locations” within a business or institution. They can be found at all levels, from management, to the technician via the engineer, to sales, to personnel management, etc. Often, “people” are afraid of change and believe that the system in which they have developed will remain as it is for years. But, considering global development, the growth of competition, technological evolutions, new partnerships, etc., the current situation is ever more fluid and innovating becomes a need both in order to maintain one’s position, but also to evolve into new markets. In reality, competitiveness depends on dynamism when it comes to innovation and it is a sort of insurance for the future.

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But therefore, it is necessary to examine what can hold this dynamism back [GAL 04]. These are cultural restraints. They are multiple, from validation by academic researchers to administrative hiccups, through an aversion to gain, through a lack of funds, through excessively high taxes on capital, but also through a development that is often organized into silos and which blocks any transversality. We will now examine some of these points, without going into detail, but by using various ideas developed among others by Pierre Battini [BAT 15] and Henri Dou [DOU 16]. Pierre Battini summarizes this problem well: “France is a fantastic country, a land of discoverers, inventers and innovators, as many individual personalities demonstrate. Paradoxically, France is not ranked well in relation to other countries: it is classed 11th in Europe and 23rd in the world. And nevertheless, we maintain a public support system for innovation that is incomparable across the entire world. Many dysfunctions, a sprawling and paralyzing administration and very insufficient funding mainly explain these poor positions compared to competitors. Businesses and creators do not benefit enough from their effort and investment. Nevertheless, the solutions for a better ranking are known [...] it only remains to implement them to obtain the best results for our economy and its development. The finding: to this day, we are being caught up by our competitors and will soon be overtaken”. Henri Dou, among others, emphasizes for academic research: “From 1965, the notion of competitiveness arrived in French research, leading publishers to publish their results in Englishlanguage journals, abandoning French and de facto diminishing the impact of French-language journals. This is a good example of contribution to the development of the French-speaking countries!” In contrast, the Germans developed, for example for chemistry, an international, English-language review Angewandte Chemie International [COM 17], but kept a German edition [WIK 18b]. French scholarly societies, under the impulse of a few leaders, did not subscribe to this movement, which led “little by little” to diminishing the number of French

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reviews counted by evaluation bodies (both international and French), thus favoring English-language journals. It must be understood that beyond political discourses indicating that research should aid the development of SMEs, SMIs and Mittelstands (Intermediate size companies), it is only very recently that the notion of industrial collaboration has been allowed in full in French research (and still with restrictions placed by some organizations). But what about the researcher? The researcher is often evaluated on criteria that are entirely or largely opposed to earlier discourse. In the majority of cases, and even when some of the researcher’s work involves teaching, it is scientific publications that count and mainly those that are published in a certain number of journals, among those counted by the WoS (Web of Science), journals which are broadly dominated by English-speaking editors [DOU 13b]. Thus, rather than moving in the same direction, French politicians are opposing one another and although start-ups and their funding are often discussed, it is often forgotten that there are, beyond creation ex nihilo, thousands of existing businesses that ought to receive help with R&D. This creates the question of how pertinent evaluations and the role of the “researcher” and the bodies they belong to are in our society, since this role is described as the social responsibility of research. In a competitive world, the importance of innovation and the transfer of university skills to industry are subject to critical analysis. Evaluation of researchers and financial methods of managing their research are no longer necessarily factors in development. The evaluation criteria applied to researchers and laboratories distance them from local concerns and, among others, from effective assistance that could help SME/SMIs that generate jobs. The lack of credence and the absence of a coherent policy are leading to a gradual disappearance of French influence at the level of international expertise. If France has some advantages, disadvantageous policy minimizes these. The search for consensus should be systematic to lead to a targeted industrial policy. We must also emphasize the importance of time and space, which should be considered by an ideally technologically acculturated political body, which brings into question the role of the state as a shareholder. 3.5. Science, technology and innovation policies Without going into detail, as this would exceed this book’s remit, we will use the 2014 report from OECD, Science Technology and Industry Outlook,

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as a source of information to make a quick point about current trends in science, technology and innovation (STI) policies. Currently, China has a driving role in developing R&D. Developing countries such as India and Brazil, to escape stagnation resulting from the increase in salaries which is making them less competitive in using their resources (middle income trap [WIK 18c]), have no solution other than to increase their innovation capacity, hence a policy to invest in research and education in particular. In Europe, there is a contrasting picture, some countries are on an upward trajectory and others are lagging behind. Globalization is leading many countries to develop innovation ecosystems that should make it possible to make investments. We are also seeing a growth in the fiscal conditions making it possible to attract foreign R&D centers to these countries. Recent developments are often concentrated on general worries such as climate change, aging populations and environmental subjects. In parallel, societal focal points such as our aging populations, which could be the source of major innovation, lack coherence and finance. We are also witnessing a convergence between disciplines such as information technologies and bio and nano sciences, which calls for greater interdisciplinarity. Even though the crisis has had substantial disruptive effects, public investment in R&D has not diminished over this period. In many countries, conditions for lending are even harsher for SMEs and SMIs, particularly where interest rates are too high. In Europe, the level of venture capital is lower than before the crisis, which has led to an increase in state funding, but also to the development of new sources of funding (crowdfunding) [STU 17], or the use of short-term funding outside the banking system (business-business credit, factoring, etc.). Public R&D plays a major role in innovation systems; the funds allocated to universities and public research centers rose from 57% of public R&D in 2007 to 61% in 2012. To ensure greater relevance (in the context of the innovation mechanism already described) funding is increasingly allocated to individual projects and in a competitive context. In the best case scenarios, there is a mix of institutional finance and finance allocated to individual projects. Transferring the results of research to the commercial sector is becoming a major objective. Thus, the notion of the market was introduced upstream of research and strong initiatives were developed to promote the commercialization of results obtained from public finance. This has led to transfer offices becoming increasingly professionalized. The progression of

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“open science”2 [WIK 18d] (or open research) should lead eventually to the development of new policies determining different aspects of research funding and the protection of results, but also the ways in which science and society should interact. 3.5.1. Innovation systems Innovation and technology should help to improve productivity, make the structure of industry more dynamic and rise to meet global challenges. The rise in the power of global value chains (raw materials, technical resources, manpower, advertising, etc. involved in producing a good or service), the already central role of entrepreneurship, the search for new sources for growth and the challenges posed by environmental and social questions have introduced new objectives and new instruments for intervention. Recent interest in “innovation systems” illustrates a change of political paradigm in some countries toward innovation policies that support socio-economic transformation on a large scale. These attempts may have profound repercussions on the make-up of policies and mechanisms of governance. According to OECD, the innovation system and all the public and private actors who, through their interactions, create, transfer and manage knowledge are responsible for the creation of new products and new technologies. The actors are very diverse: research centers, universities, businesses, various kinds of associations, etc. But the innovation system will also cover legal aspects (tax, funding, for example research tax credit in France), administrative aspects (all kinds of approaches), protection of intellectual property, access to information, broadband links, transport and facilities, etc. In this way, each country can identify all the actors as well as all those other aspects linked to the country itself that are involved in developing innovation. This constitutes a national, indeed regional innovation system. These networks of course include aspects of the innovation mechanism already described. In addition, whether they are national or regional, they can foster international relationships through “open research”. 2 Open science or open research cover a wide range of practices, based on internet use, tools (including Wikipedia or Wikispecies) and the social web, which can be used throughout the scholarly process; from the formulation of questions and scientific hypotheses to the dissemination/popularization of research results, through the discussion of methods, protocols, results, etc. Open science can also promote the multidisciplinary nature of research and potentially a multilingual character and the character of a “common good”.

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Figu ure 3.4. Open n research or internationaliza in ation of research [OEC 05].. The thicckness of the lines l represen nts collaboratio ons, detected by the numbe er of co-autho ors in publicatiions and the circles c represe ent the total nu umber of collaborations

3.5.2. A quick com mparison between b Frrance and Germany G Frannce and Germ many are verry often com mpared withoout any real ppoints of referencce. In the stuudy carried out o by OECD D (already ciited), a simpple graph makes it i possible too summarize and display the differennces betweenn the two countriees. The wholle is shown inn Figures 3.5 5 and 3.6.

F Figure 3.5. Re epresentation of industry in France accorrding to EBRD D3 3 Europeaan bank for recoonstruction andd development.

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F Figure 3.6. Re epresentation of industry in Germany acco ording to EBR RD

On thhe one hand,, the lack of industrial deevelopment inn France cann be seen clearly, and on the other o hand, the t prominen nce of services in Francee, as well v high prresence of inndustrial businesses in Germany G cann also be as the very seen. We W also note the low num mber of SME Es in Germaany, which thhe larger businessses make upp for. We alsso see for Frrance a drop in sectors innvolving local buusinesses, inddustry and addvanced tech hnology betw ween 2007 annd 2011. This is a substantial loss in four f years. One O can alsso consult thhe study publisheed by Benjamin Pelletier [PEL 11] which w also shows s a sum mmary of this com mparison. 3.5.3. The evolu ution of inn novation policy p in the t United States [NOA 13] 1 The United Statees, for a fairrly long timee, developedd innovation through S whichh finances basic reseaarch to creeate the the rolle of the State, competeencies, know wledge and manufacturin m ng skills that will transforrm these competeencies and knowledge k i into productts and servicces. But eveen when financinng the creatiion of businnesses, the United U States has had too face a rising demand d for quality as well as thee arrival of Japanese ellectronic productts, with the addition off a form of dumping linnked to a ffavorable exchangge rate. It was therefoore necessarry to devellop an incrreasingly

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offensive structured innovation policy. This happened in 1980 through the Bayh-Dole Act which authorized research institutions and universities to patent their discoveries, which facilitates technology transfers: “The Bayh-Dole Act [AUT 17] created a uniform policy on patent transfers among the many federal bodies who finance research, enabling small businesses and non-profit organizations, including universities, to keep rights to inventions made within research programs financed by the federal government. This law was especially useful in encouraging universities to participate in technology transfer activities”. However, many actors such as BRICS and the Asian dragons, having developed their technologies and products to a higher quality, are arriving on the American market and unbalancing it. The United States have therefore developed a new innovation policy, presented in the “Rising above the gathering storm” report, which aims to identify [NAT 07]: “The first ten measures that federal political decision-makers could take to improve scientific and technological businesses so that the US can succeed competitively, remain prosperous and ensure its security in the global community of the 21st Century. What strategy, with several concrete stages, could be used to implement each of these actions?” The work of these experts established a consensus that led to the following recommendations: – recommendation A: growing the amount of American talent by improving education in the sciences and mathematics considerably, starting from nursery school; – recommendation B: maintaining and strengthening the nation’s traditional engagement in fundamental research in the long term, which has the potential to maintain the flow of new ideas that feed the economy, strengthen security and improve quality of life; – recommendation C: making the United States the most attractive place to study and carry out research so that we develop, recruit and retain the most brilliant students, scientists and engineers both from the United States and worldwide;

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– recommendation D: taking care that the United States should be the first country in the world to innovate; investing in activities downstream such as manufacturing and advertising; and creating well-paid jobs based on innovation through measures such as modernizing the patent system, changing fiscal policies to encourage innovation and affordable access to broadband Internet. The report’s conclusion summarizes well the major problem that countries in the western world should face up to: “Without a renewed effort to strengthen the foundations of our competitiveness, we can expect to lose our privileged position. For the first time in generations, the Nation’s children could face poorer future prospects than their parents and grandparents. We owe our present prosperity, our security and good-health to the investment of past generations and we are obliged to renew these commitments in education, research and innovation policies to make sure that the American people continue to benefit from the rapid development of the global economy and its now significant base in science and technology”. Furthermore, to consolidate the position of SMEs, the Small Business Act reserves a significant part of public markets for American SMEs. This makes it possible to stabilize the “backlog” and create the cash flow needed to move toward innovative development policies. In France this is not the case, as a result both of French legislation and European legislation. It is in this way that in France, around 70% of innovation credit goes to big businesses that create few jobs, and may indeed destroy them, while only 30% of credits go to SMEs small-scale industries, which do generate jobs. 3.5.4. Innovation in Asia There is no question of providing a complete panorama in this context, but we will however provide some indications about current trends in China, Japan and South Korea. 3.5.4.1. South Korea [PAS 16] South Korea moved from an income in the order of US$ 62 per inhabitant around the 1960s to an income equivalent to countries such as Israel now. This effort was made through massive state investment, but also by

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developing technological tools (education, technological universities, technology centers, a rise in the quality of technologies, the development of large conglomerates such as Samsung for example) and a national development plan to determine strategic technologies useful for the future of South Korea [TAE 10]. But competition from other Asian countries such as China and Japan led to a drop in profits and indeed to losses. A new policy is thus being drawn up, not to spend everything on large conglomerates, but to develop entrepreneurship through large incubator creation programs, technology transfer accelerators (of which 60 are operational) and start-ups. This is the program for implementing a creative economy at the same time as stimulating capital investment in risk. Moreover, South Korea is a market that, for some developments, can suffice in itself. With an educated population, good universities, a recognized capacity to work and a penetration rate for broadband Internet in the order for 100%, the home market is an interesting base for developing new applications, which makes South Korea the world champion in convergence. It is in this way that the plan for a creative economy has identified six strategies [WIK 18e]: – strategy 1: creating an ecosystem in which creativity is equitably compensated and where it is easy to create a new business; – strategy 2: strengthening South Korea’s global position and playing a prime role in the creative economy through high-risk businesses and small and medium-sized businesses; – strategy 3: creating new engines for growth to develop new products and new markets; – strategy 4: educating creative talents on a global level; – strategy 5: strengthening competencies to innovate for S&T and TIC as foundations for the creative economy; – strategy 6: developing the culture of a creative economy in which people and the government work together. 3.5.4.2. Japan In Japan, we do not find barriers between fundamental research and applied research. Laboratories can carry out both, provided they are highlevel laboratories, whether in public or private. So, this distinction which often pollutes the climate of French research in particular does not exist. The state defines priorities and finances their development. Japan faces different

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challenges [QUA 16]: it needs to tackle an aging population, to increase its innovative potential and open itself to the outside world. The share of GDP devoted to research is around 3.3% while that of those in OECD is around 2.3%, and what is remarkable is the continuity in this investment over time. R&D is piloted on a national level. Development, which stopped in 2016, prioritized the environment, energy, health and medical care. Japan’s strength lies in, among other factors, its university research potential – it has 750 universities (state, public or private) that benefit from more freedom to develop their research, protect it and develop it. In parallel, a start-up development program was put in place with the Start program (Program for Creating Start-ups from Advanced Research and Technology). In fact, all large Japanese businesses appeared in the 1970s and it does indeed seem that Japan wishes to diversify its development into more dynamic and innovative businesses. The broad outlines of the Start program are shown in Figure 3.7 [JAP 17]. The Start program aims to create university start-ups in three years. It is not normally permitted to extend the period during which support is provided. However, support can, in some cases, be prolonged for up to five years to validate the initial concept.

Figure 3.7. The Japanese Start program

The need for such a program is based on the fact that university start-ups find it very difficult to develop distribution channels and markets, to ensure gains and collect revenues, as they do not generally have enough expertise to create advertising concepts and strategies for intellectual property. The aim

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is to give Japan global superiority in some breakthrough technologies, such as robotics, medical equipment, connected objects and the environment. 3.5.4.3. China China is currently a motor for global R&D. There are numerous policies in China for making innovation more dynamic. Without being exhaustive, we will expand upon some of those that seem important. For more information on this subject, one can consult the document produced by the French Embassy in China [AMB 17]: Les politiques de soutien à l’innovation en Chine. The strengthening of innovation policies in China is a priority for 2006–2020; these policies aim to strengthen innovation development in business. Innovation policies have been implemented in domains such as taxation, intellectual property, attracting talent, making the sciences more popular or even in developing new innovation platforms. The favored technologies are the following: electronics, biology/medicine, aviation/aerospace, new materials, high technology services, new energy sources, environmental technologies and the transformation of traditional sectors. Although support for technology programs is relatively well-known as well as the development of research in universities (among others, technological universities), less well-known are the fiscal incentives that appear to be one of the main engines for innovation in businesses in China. These are the following: – independent R&D centers: (these are created according to particular methods). They are exempt from customs and VAT on import (especially for the purchase of equipment), taxes on income lower than 85 million yuan (around 10 million euros) and only 50% is paid above this limit; – businesses in high and new technologies: these firms have a 15% tax on their income (for the details of these firms’ labels, consult the document from the French Embassy cited above); – businesses located in technology parks: these benefit from substantial fiscal advantages. They are exempt from income tax for the first three years, pay only 7.5% in taxes from the fourth to the sixth years, then 15% from the seventh year; – a substantial reduction in R&D expenses: businesses that have made real advances in the area of R&D can deduct 50% of their total expenses from the income tax they pay; – venture capital type funding structures also benefit from reduced taxes;

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– technology transfers including revenue can benefit from a tax reduction in the order of 50 to 100%. It can also be seen, if we compare these incentives to those put in place in many other countries, that the fiscal aspect is much more developed. It is therefore evident that a focus on research and transfer are naturally considered important in Chinese policy, but that it is also vital that they are accompanied by a realistic fiscal side that makes profit a real “recompense for the efforts undertaken” as a “catalyst”. It should also be noted that at the same time, an accompanying program for intellectual property should be put in place [AMB 12], this aims to endow Chinese businesses with a patent portfolio equivalent to their foreign competitors. This program particularly strengthens the way Chinese patents are examined so as to have criteria corresponding to those of similar offices in the USA, WIPO, EPO, etc. At university level, it is noteworthy that even though China developed the “Shanghai ranking”, global or US universities are taking the lion’s share of it, “internal” rankings for Chinese universities use different criteria. Although there is some polarization around high-ranking publications, in the internal ranking, scientific publications count for 1 and patents for 3. It is in this way that, for example, the University of Tsinghua deposited more than 4,000 patents per year (these 4,000 deposits include only very few utility models). Without predicting how long this policy will last, it is clear that it “draws” fundamental research applications and because of this, becomes a catalyst for innovation. 3.5.5. The European Union and innovation In its chart on innovation, the European Union notes that it is catching up with Japan and the United States. It thus distinguishes [EUR 16a]: “–‘innovation leaders’: Sweden leads, followed by Denmark, Finland, Germany and the Netherlands, whose results in innovation are well above the EU average; – ‘strong innovators’: Austria, Belgium, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, the United Kingdom and Slovenia, whose innovation results are greater than or close to the EU average;

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– ‘moderate innovators’: Cyprus, Croatia, Spain, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Portugal, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, whose innovation results are lower than the EU average; – ‘modest innovators’: Bulgaria and Romania, whose innovation results are clearly lower than the EU average”. Regional poles of innovation are present, even in moderate innovators. The following conditions are needed to develop high-level innovation: – combining a suitable level of public and private investment; – having effective innovation partnerships between businesses and with universities; – developing a solid teaching base and research excellence. Here, we see the main characteristics already examined in this section. We also note that financial incentives are not indicated. This only affects the “technical” domain while some countries such as China rank financial incentives at an appropriately high level. In the “innovation scoreboard” from 2016, the European Union showed a map of the different levels of innovation within it [EUR 16b], represented in Figure 3.8.

Figure 3.8. The level of innovation in the EU. For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/dou/strategic2.zip

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For innovation leaders, we note that for two years, there has been a decline in performance; only Denmark is maintaining positive growth. Figure 3.9 shows change in the first two groups of countries.

Figure 3.9. Innovation index for the first two groups of countries. For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/dou/strategic2.zip

In the innovation scoreboard we also find a comparison between the EU and other countries. Some of these comparisons are shown below: – South Korea is more innovative than the EU, and leadership in innovation has increased over the past eight years; – the US has been more innovative than the EU, but return is constantly dropping; – Japan has always been more innovative than the EU; – Canada’s performance in innovation was higher than the EU’s until recently, but it is now slightly behind; – Australia’s performance in innovation is behind the EU’s and their innovation gap is slowly growing;

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– China’s performance in innovation is far behind that of the EU, but its relative performance has increased greatly, moving from 26% of the EU average in 2008 to 40% in 2015; – Russia’s performance in innovation is far behind that of the EU, even though the gap between the two has been reduced; – Brazil’s performance in innovation is behind that of the EU and is stagnating; – India’s performance in innovation is well below those of the EU, but have remained relatively stable over time; – South Africa’s performance in innovation is far behind that of the EU and is stagnating; – finally, it is notable among the diverse countries who are “EU competitors”, businesses’ R&D expenses as a percentage of GDP are significantly greater; this is shown in Figure 3.10.

Figure 3.10. R&D expenses for businesses as a percentage of GDP. For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/dou/strategic2.zip

3.5.6. The role of cities in innovation systems Today, more than 50% of the world’s population lives in cities. Cities have a substantial potential to attract people since they are home to policies on research, education, health and access to information technologies whose synergy is facilitated by local problems that need solving. Air quality, transport flow, energy supplies, security problems, etc. are leading to the

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inclusion of information technologies in ever greater numbers, which is leading to the development of smart cities. Cities will therefore doubtlessly take a disproportionate place on a national level. At the same time, they create a context where interactions and the availability of knowledge and resources will facilitate the development of a context propitious to innovation. This will therefore create the problem, in a context of national development, of how these urban spaces connect with the surrounding environment. This question of equilibrium cannot be ignored when addressing the drop in innovation from the economic perspective of creating jobs. Thus, beyond innovation systems and innovation ecosystems, the role of large cities, although it is positive in the sense that it improves the lives of the citizens that form them, can create a desert in the surrounding area if we are not careful. It is therefore important that above “high-tech” innovation we can tackle innovation in very different domains, notably agriculture, social policy, health and education, so that the concentration and development of urban innovation ecosystems does not occur to the detriment of the wider country. To address this problem for France, the project described by France Stratégie [FRA 17] (France 2017–2027) [PIS 16, YAH 17] merits further study. In fact, it is clear that the global strategy specified is one of massive investment in cities, since the 15 largest urban areas generated three quarters of growth in France between 2000 and 2010. But how then can we ensure that less privileged regions profit from the benefits of development in these areas? Although it is true that the Paris region is home to 19% of the population and 30% of income, rural areas on the contrary, which represent 12% of the population, receive only 6% of income. Is it possible to generate regional dynamics that can provide for those areas in decline? This is the challenge for such a strategy [BRO 16]. 3.6. Public innovation policies in France France has, for a decade and with some continuity, made innovation an imperative at the political level. Because of this, diverse policies have been developed [FRA 16]. These aim to move French industry away from imitation and toward innovation. The France Stratégie report underlines, among other aspects, a dispersal of objectives, which should create a need to refocus. Moreover, it underlines that of the 10 billion euros dedicated to supporting innovation, 6.4 billion come from research tax credit (CIR). This

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is 60% of the total support compared to 17% in the year 2000. As the France Stratégie report indicates: “Symmetrically, direct aid essentially in the form of subsidies, has been practically halved in real terms over the period. These subsidies currently represent 19.1% of support, compared to 81% in 2000. In correlation we see, over the last 15 years, a reduction in the means allocated to each national project: excluding tax and social reductions, the average size has dropped from 126 to 39 millions euros” [FRA 16]. This leads to: “A sizeable institutional reorganization [that] has been undertaken, with the implementation of two major actors: the commissariat général à l’investissement (General investment commission) (CGI), which manages future investment programs (the PIA), and the public investment bank (Bpifrance), which supports and funds businesses’ innovation efforts. The PIA’s innovation programs represent in average annual flow 57% of direct support and Bpifrance funding, in grant equivalents, represents 37% (including action by the PIA managed by Bpifrance)”. The five current, major objectives currently pursued are the following: – increasing private R&D capacity; – growing the economic benefits of public research; – developing projects for cooperation between actors; – promoting innovative entrepreneurship; – supporting the development of innovative businesses. 3.6.1. Innovation and territories The new structure of the French regions, which coincides both with the development of a regional economic intelligence and with the division of departments into territories, raises the question of the link that exists between: innovation and territories. In this case, we need to be circumspect,

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as the size of regions, if it is too low, runs the risk that it will not be able to develop an innovation development policy, as only specific cases will be considered. The department in this case seems the better size to deal with, so that the department’s regions can engage in developing an innovation policy. But budgetary allocations being what they are, the department’s financial commitment can only be limited. However, it might favor innovation by helping to develop a denser network that will enable more frequent and more direct contact between SMEs, SMIs, technical schools and technology institutes or universities if these exist in the department. This policy for developing meetings and links should be voluntary. It will therefore be necessary, in order to maximize efforts, first to analyze local needs and channels that should be the object of particular attention to organize meetings and relationships. In France, the link between industry and research should be strengthened. The CIFRE [MIN 17] conventions, the development of incubators and the actions of the Carnot institutes [CAR 17] are good examples. But much remains to be done and if residual, opposing forces can be seen at the national level, these are much more likely to disappear if we work at the local level. However, this will not happen by itself and requires organization. In reality, it would be ideal to create a semi-permanent dialog between research potential in a broad sense (including in particular universities, but also technology institutes and technical schools, if there is not necessarily a university in each region). This would make it possible, with minimum investment, to develop departmental ecosystems likely to help the growth of development in innovation. It is quite clear that at the regional level, regional economic intelligence would involve structuring programs, state-region, or Europe-region initiatives. In fact, although the regional aspect is particularly involved with regional intelligence, the region itself will be concerned with competitive intelligence. 3.7. Conclusion The solutions for creating an ecosystem favorable for innovation development are relatively homogenous in most countries. The basis is to choose strategic technologies and for their development to be financed by the State via universities and research centers (a difference appears however between countries where businesses’ level of investment in R&D is low). There is then a need to transform the knowledge and competencies created

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into products and services that will bring in money. This happens through public/private partnerships, but the general trend is for big businesses to be involved, certainly, but for the emphasis to be placed on creating new businesses that are more dynamic and reactive. Some countries, to develop high-risk activities (economic policies based on possible future technologies), are turning to universities and research centers with public funding. A policy on intellectual property generally accompanies these efforts. But, although this forms the central body around which development will hinge, it is also necessary to consider administrative barriers, to simplify procedures, compensate innovators financially, create substantial financial incentives and not to consider failure as prohibitive. It is also necessary, but this will go hand in hand with research, to develop high-level training programs as well as “traditional” but also “technological” universities. 3.8. References [AMB 12] AMBASSADE DE FRANCE À PÉKIN, “La Nouvelle loi chinoise sur les brevets, La France en Chine”, December 20, 2012, available at: http://cn. ambafrance.org/La-nouvelle-loi-chinoise-sur-les-brevets. [AMB 17] AMBASSADE DE FRANCE À PÉKIN, “Les Politiques de soutien à l’innovation en Chine”, 2017, available at: http://cn.ambafrance.org/IMG/pdf/ les_ politiques_de_ soutien_a_l_innovation_en_chine.pdf. [AUS 07] AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT, The Australian Government’s Innovation Report, 2007, available at: https://industry.gov.au/-innovation/reportsandstudies/ Documents/InnovationReport2006-07.pdf. [AUT 17] AUTM, “Bayh-Dole Act: landmark law helped universities lead the way AUTM”, 2017, available at: https://www.autm.net/advocacy-topics/governmentissues/bayh-dole-act/. [BAT 15] BATTINI P., “La problématique de l’innovation en France”, Vie et Sciences de l’Entreprise, vol. 2, no. 200, pp. 6–9, 2015, available at: http://www.cairn.info/ article.php?ID_ARTICLE=VSE_200_0119&DocId=490667&hits=10362+9896+ 9886 +11+9+2017. [BEF 05] BEFFA J.-L., Pour une nouvelle politique industrielle, La Documentation française, Paris, 2005.

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[BRO 16] BROCHET F., “Paris des métropoles et le désert ?”, Le progrès, July 7, 2016, available at: http://www.leprogres.fr/economie/2016/07/07/paris-desmetropoles-et-le-desert. [CAR 17] CARNOT (LE RÉSEAU DES INSTITUTS), “La recherche pour les entreprises”, 2017, available at: http://www.instituts-carnot.eu/. [COM 17] COMPTON N. (ed.), Angewandte Chemie International, 2017, available at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1521-3773. [COU 07] COUNCIL OF COMPETITIVENESS, “Innovate America: thriving, in a world of challenge and change global innovation ecosystem”, 2007. [DIE 14] DIENG D., Intelligence stratégique : guide pour la recherche et l’innovation, Presses universitaires de Namur, Namur, 2014. [DOU 10] DOU H., “Innover dans la recherche publique en France : la responsabilité sociale de la recherche (RSR) est-elle mesurée ?”, Vie et Sciences économiques, vol. 3, no. 185/186, pp. 148–167, 2010. [DOU 13a] DOU-GOARIN C., Patent Analysis for “Silver Age” Dedicated Technology Mapping : Workshop Innovation, Patents, and Standards, Tours, France, November 19, 2013. [DOU 13b] DOU H., “La diffusion des connaissances : un enjeu stratégique”, Les sciences de l’information et leurs implications géopolitiques, Ajaccio, France, November 28–29, 2013, available at: http://s244543015.onlinehome.fr/ciworldwide/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/diffusion-des-connaissances-colloquecor-se-nov-2013.pdf. [DOU 15] DOU H., L’intelligence économique à l’heure du Jugaad, Kindle Amazon, 2015. [DOU 16] DOU H., “Innovation et industrialisation, un enjeu pour la France”, Vie et Sciences de l’entreprise, vol. 1, no. 201, pp. 168–169, 2016, available at: http://s244543015.onlinehome.fr/ciworldwide/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/vse201_ juin-2016-dou-henri.pdf. [DUN 17] DUNCAN L., “33 Amazing creativity quotes”, 2017, available at: https://fr.slideshare.net/cyrielkortleven/33-amazing-creativity-quotes. [ETZ 08] ETZKOWITZ H., The Triple Helix, Innovation in action, Routledge, New York, 2008. [EUR 16a] EUROPA FORUM, “La Commission européenne publie l’édition 2016 de son tableau de bord de l’innovation et note que l’UE rattrape son retard sur le Japon et les États-Unis”, July 14, 2016, available at: http://www.europaforum.public.lu/fr/actualites/2016/07/comm-innovation/index.html.

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[EUR 16b] EUROPEAN INNOVATION SCOREBOARD, European Innovation Scoreboard, European Union, Scoreboard, 2016, available at: http://ec.europa. eu/growth/industry/innovation/facts-figures/scoreboards/. [FRA 16] FRANCE STRATÉGIE, “Quinze ans de politique d’innovation en France”, 2016, available at: http://www.strategie.gouv.fr/publications/quinze-ans-depolitiques-dinnovation-france. [FRA 17] FRANCE STRATÉGIE, 2017, Website, available at: http://france strategie1727.fr/. [GAL 04] GALIA F., LEGROS D., “Complementarities between obstacles to innovation: evidence from France”, Research policy, vol. 33, no. 8, pp. 1185– 1199, 2004. [JAP 17] JAPAN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY AGENCY, Aiming for the establishment of a Japanese-style innovation ecosystem in which technologies generated in universities can be widely utilized in society, Report, 2017, available at: http://www.jst.go.jp/start/en/jigyo/index.html. [INN 01] INNOVATION CANADA, Le pouvoir d’agir, examen du soutien fédéral de la recherche-développement. Final expert group report, 2001, available at: http://examen-rd.ca/eic/site/033.nsf/vwapj/R-D_Innovation-Canada_Final-fra.pdf/ $FILE/R-D_InnovationCanada_Final-fra.pdf. [MIN 17] MINISTÈRE DE L’ENSEIGNEMENT SUPÉRIEUR, DE LA RECHERCHE ET DE L’INNOVATION, “Cifre la convention industrielle de formation par la recherche”, 2017, available at: http://www.enseignementsup-recherche.gouv.fr/cid67039/ cifre-la-convention-industrielle-de-formation-par-la-recherche.html. [NAT 07] THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCE, Rising over the gathering storm, Report, 2007. [NOA 13] NOAILLES-SIMÉON P., “Les États-Unis préparent une nouvelle politique d’innovation”, Blog Les Échos, 2013, available at: http://blogs.lesechos.fr/ intelligence-economique/les-etats-unis-preparent-une-nouvelle-politique-d-innovationa12611.html. [OEC 05] OECD, Manuel d’Oslo : la mesure des activités scientifiques et technologiques, Manual, 2005, available at: http://www.oecd.org/fr/sti/inno/ 2367523.pdf. [OEC 04] OECD, Science, Technologie et Industrie : Perspectives de l’OCDE, édition 2004, available at: http://www.oecd.org/fr/science/inno/sciencetechnologieet industrieperspectivesdelocdeedition2004.htm [PAS 16] PASQUIER M., “Innovation is everywhere”, Maddyness, 2016, available at: https://www.maddyness.com/innovation/2016/11/21/coree-du-sud-startups/.

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[PEL 11] PELLETIER B., “L’innovation en France et ses freins culturels”, Gestion des Risques Interculturels, 2011, available at: http://gestion-des-risques-inter-culturels. com/pays/europe/france/linnovation-en-france-et-ses-freins-culturels-2e-partie/. [PIS 16] PISANI-FERRY J., LENGLART F., 2017–2027 : enjeux pour une décennie, La Documentation française, Paris, vol. 1, 2016. [QUA 16] QUAGLIOZZI C., “La stratégie d’investissement japonaise dans la recherche et le développement”, Classe Internationale, January 30, 2016, available at: https://classe-internationale.com/2016/01/30/la-strategie-dinvestissement-japonaisedans-la-recherche-et-developpement/. [RAD 13] RADJOU N., PRABHU J., AHUJA S., L’innovation Jugaad. Redevenons ingénieux, Diateino, Paris, 2013. [STU 17] STUCKI D., Financer une entreprise par le crowdfunding, RB Édition, Paris, 2017. [TAE 10] TAEYOUNG S., Technology forecasting and ST planning. The Korean experience, Report, Brazilian International Seminar on Foresight Studies, 2010, available at: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.566.4864 &rep=rep1&type=pdf. [WIK 18a] WIKIPEDIA, “Créativité”, 2018, available at: https://fr.wikipedia. org/wiki/Cr%C3%A9ativit%C3%A9. [WIK 18b] WIKIPEDIA, “Angewandte Chemie”, 2018, available at: https://fr. wikipedia.org/wiki/Angewandte_Chemie. [WIK 18c] WIKIPEDIA, “Middle income trap”, 2018, available at: https://en. wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_income_trap. [WIK 18d] WIKIPEDIA, “Science ouverte”, wikipedia.org/wiki/Science_ouverte.

2018,

available

at:

https://fr.

[WIK 18e] WIKIPEDIA, “Creative economy in South Korea”, 2018, available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_economy_in_South_Korea. [YAH 17] YAHIEL M., LENGLART F., Actions critiques pour une décennie 2017– 2027, vol. 2, La Documentation française, Paris, 2017. [ZER 17] ZERHOUNI E., “Actuellement président monde de la recherche de la société Sanofi”, 2017.

4 Formal Information Research

Activities in strategic or economic intelligence are inseparable from access to information. Without wishing to be exhaustive, since this is not the aim of this book, it is still necessary to set out a number of facts on this research, to provide practitioners with topics for reflection and action. In the domain of economic intelligence, the businesses and institutions involved should question their relationship with information. This may be done using the work of Timothy Powell [POW 95] on information metabolism as a starting point.

Figure 4.1. Positioning the business

Strategic Intelligence for the Future 2: A New Information Function Approach, First Edition. Henri Dou, Alain Juillet and Philippe Clerc. © ISTE Ltd 2019. Published by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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Figure 4.1 makes it possible to focus on the capacities needed on two specific points: the capacity to seek information and the capacity to analyze it. Implementing a system for analysis, discussion with experts; if the information provided to them is incomplete or indeed biased at the outset, it will not lead to good results. 4.1. The importance of the time factor in scientific data It can be seen that in the majority of cases, the time between the idea and publication of the work to which it gave rise is around two years.

Figure 4.2. The importance of time

This has an important implication for strategy. In fact, it is certainly necessary to know which institutions or researchers are working in a domain that interests us, but what is still more important is to know what is happening now, which subjects these institutions and researchers are working on, and not what happened two years ago. This “need”, which should be considered particularly important in economic intelligence and strategic information research, has resulted in multiple activities: short and quickly–published communications, colloquia and symposia, informal meetings, think tanks, trainees “sent” to some laboratories, etc. We will see that information analysis, groupings and various correlations enable us to properly select laboratories or institutions and the individuals that work in those domains that interest us. But from this summary, we should, so far as possible, be familiar with the means of reaching this objective. In our case, we limit ourselves to strategies that are ethically acceptable, including going to colloquia and asking questions, reading pre-prints or reports from

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symposia, making visits, consulting these institutions or researchers’ Internet sites, etc. The traceability of research actors in social network is also a significant path. 4.2. Different information typologies The importance of the time factor influences information typology. We can thus distinguish formal sources of information or secondary information sources, often called written information and informal information, or primary information sources often called human information. Scientific information, since it is generally published and validated, mainly involves written information. Then, when we consider R&D, or the economy and markets, the percentage of human informations tends to grow rapidly. It is also believed that formal information is published and validated information – such as scientific publications, theses, books (even though these are not necessarily validated by peer review) – reports, often from scientific institutions or requested from groups of experts by governments. However, informal information should be validated as information, but also assessed according to its source. This informal information, often obtained via human networks, has particular importance, since it lies closest to action. This is the information that, when validated, “shortens the time factor”. The same goes for information from social networks. This can be considered “mixed” information, as it is conveyed through recognized media and therefore written, but its quality is often very variable and often subject to “manipulation”. We must also be aware that information from social networks and the echo chamber that these create in fact only affects the individuals who use these networks. Generally, we say that “significant” information obtained about societies and individuals is fairly rare, but one should distrust gossip and other acts and ideas harmful to the reputation of a society or an individual. If this typology is created to classify types of information in general, we must also consider the fact that sources of information evolve very quickly. A few years ago, most information was accessible in written form (electronic or otherwise). But now, information is broadcast by different media: more and more by voice (discourse, teaching) in the form of photos or videos. Videos are used more and more. For example, to obtain a fast but general

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and realistic picture of a particular domain, we can proceed as follows: search on the Internet for one or two individuals who are experts in this domain, then search on YouTube to see if they have presented any fewminute clips on the subject in question. Example: soft power or influence. We seek an expert in this domain, find Joseph Nye, then look on YouTube for Joseph Nye’s presentations. We can obtain a series of presentations ranging from one hour to a few minutes in length and which cover the subject.

Figure 4.3. The main information typologies

4.3. Information research The aim here is not to tackle the question of databases in detail, whether they are commercial or free, but to envisage two specific cases as practice questions. We examine a series of references taken for example from a large database (patents, Chemical Abstracts, Medline, etc.). These are distributed according to their degree of knowledge (trivial, i.e. everyone knows it, or it is moderately well-known, or background noise and low signals). This first differentiation is also linked to the quality of the individuals (degree of

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knowledge) seeking information. This is also why in economic intelligence or in monitoring technological system developments [QUA 99] the quality of the individual(s) responsible for collecting the information is crucial. It can also be noted that, depending on the sources of information or the subject tackled, volumes of trivial information, moderately interesting information or unusual information will vary. For example, the database of Chemical Abstracts covers a very broad spectrum of journals, patents, reports, theses, etc. on chemistry, which means that the volumes of information available will be broader than in a narrower database that would only consider work published in scientific reviews and, for example, selected at the outset for their impact factor. Finally, a third parameter is to be considered when seeking information. This is the age of the information. In fact, outdated information will only have little value for action (apart from information on physical data that does not change over time, but this is very rarely the case in economic intelligence). However, recent or very recent information will be especially useful. Very recent but trivial information may be useful, but it should generate a very quick, almost immediate reaction from the business, as normally everyone, including competitors, know it.

Figure 4.4. Distribution of information

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4.4. Research practices: reductionist, holistic In the previous approach, we process significant volumes of information, often hundreds or indeed thousands of units. This creates a distinction in the way we approach enquiries using information systems. 4.4.1. The reductionist approach This is the most widespread approach to enquiries. We will try using key words, dates, codes, thesauruses, names of individuals or societies, etc. to obtain a limited number of references that best answer the question asked. One can even proceed by repeated iterations to lead to a desired result. This is for example very useful when making enquiries for data on the Web with a search engine such as Google. In this case, it is necessary to bring interesting data “to the surface”, to use all available functions, such as searches for chains of characters (an exact phrase for example), or a type of document (docx, ppt, pdf, xls, etc.), or dates (last week, month, year), or possibly the type of domain (.edu, .gov or .gouv, .org, .com) or country of provenance (.fr, .us, etc.). We will not go into detail on using Google functions. The reader can refer to the work of Henri Dou [DOU 17]: Information Bits & Tips for CI, which shows the most useful functions in the domain of documentary research on the Internet. In this approach, it only remains for the user to read the results and summarize them. But, if the focus is very precise, which is useful in some cases, it will deprive the user of a broader vision of their subject, and the ins and outs of it. It is in this sense that this approach is reductionist. Only using this approach will deprive the user of the knowledge needed to develop their action, but also, what is more important, of the knowledge needed to apply their knowledge in related domains that provide differentiation. This aspect is very important for businesses that often see their core activity drop due to “wear over time” and should therefore replace or modify it to access new customers, or when large sub-contractors for example wish to evolve into more intelligent, indeed strategic sub-contractors (in partnership with the customer) [DAV 94, ZIN 17]. This is also the case in transfer centers, some of which revisit their activities, as Pierette Bergeron describes: “In 1983 the German foundation Steinbeis adopted a new approach, with transfer centers. It moved from the role of technology provider to a holistic approach to solving problems.” [BER 00]

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4.4.2. The holistic approach This investigative approach is exactly the reverse of the previous one. Rather than searching for the most relevant information, it will search for wide-ranging information, with fluid perimeters, which broadly cover the subject tackled. It is evident that proceeding in this way forms a large opening into all aspects of the subject (this opening is limited according to the specifics of the chosen database; in fact, a biology database will provide a comprehensive opening onto the biological aspects of this subject alone). However, this holistic approach, imposes a constraint although it is particularly good in the context of a search for strategic information and in particular weak signals enabling a differentiation between competitors. In fact, it is not a question of reading hundreds of documents, or even of grouping them by affinity or making sophisticated selections of them. It will be absolutely necessary to use a technical aid to analyze all the documents using statistical algorithms making it possible to make selections, groupings, matrices (who makes what for example), networks (business networks, researchers, technologies). This analysis, which in fact means using bibliometrics for documentary ends, makes it possible to sort information from a large corpus and at the user’s discretion, to regroup these, to make various types of correlation to detect domains that would potentially interest the user as well as information that should be read and assimilated. Moreover, these general processes will lead to a fairly complete knowledge of the subject and so to the chance to develop competencies in diverse domains. In this chapter, we will mainly tackle bibliographical references, but one can also, from codes or thesauruses, create networks providing a holistic view of a subject [LIU 13]. 4.4.3. Holistic approach and meta-information or metadata The holistic approach, during analysis, will often lead to the production of metadata that will be used to obtain, by comparing this data, new information that is almost undetectable or unobtainable by manual processing. The word metadata was used for the first time in 1969 [GRE 05] and introduced into literature in 1973. To familiarize the reader with this approach, we will briefly define what metadata is, based on the work of Kathleen Burnett, Kwong Bur Ng and Soyeon Park:

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“From my understanding of what metadata is, metadata is simply defined as ‘data about data’. And to a certain extent and depending on the perspective which you define what metadata is, ‘data about data’ is a legitimate and accurate definition. Looking at the various definitions of metadata we can define metadata as ‘structured data about data’ whereas NISO Press, 2004 describes metadata as ‘data about data or information about information’”1 [BUR 99]. One of the first times the holistic approach to information and the creation of metadata was used was in geography. The work of Moore, Sims and Blackwell is particularly relevant at this level [MOO 01]. It is in this way that “in the early to mid 19th Century, the idealist philosopher Georg Hegel used teleology (the notion of an overall purpose – devised by the early Greeks) to project thinking toward a comprehension of the whole (i.e. the infinite). Similarly, the classical German geographer Carl Ritter believed that the natural and social spheres of existence cannot be treated in isolation as they both affect each other”. Here we find a modern aspect of economic intelligence, which should now consider the “social” and “culture” in its analysis. An example of metadata in geography is characterization of a site, which may be involved with tourism, sediment formation, fauna and flora, etc. If the data are merely site co-ordinates, the metadata will concern its particularities. Authors have demonstrated the connections that exist between data, action and metadata. This all corresponds to the creation of specific knowledge (in our case “for action”). In bibliometric processing we will find large sets of references of these diverse particularities. Or indeed, according to Benetts, Wood-Harper and Mills: “Information systems are increasingly directed towards providing an overall, holistic vision of the subjects tackled.” [BEN 00] 1 From what I understand metadata to be, metadata are simply defined as “data on data”. To some extent and from the perspective that you define, what metadata are, “data on data” is a legitimate and precise definition. Metadata can be defined as “data structured on data” while NISO Press [RIL 04], described metadata as “data on data” – information about information.

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Figure 4.5. Creating specific knowledge [MOO 01]

The link between economic intelligence and a holistic approach has been developed in a doctoral thesis by Audrey Naidoo [NAI 03] in which “in order to fully understand the need for competitive intelligence within organizations, one has to create a clear picture of the business environment and the forces that influence it. The problems facing business today demand a turn to integrated, holistic thinking”. It is therefore clear that currently, the global trend in information research is moving toward a holistic vision of the subject whether it is in the domains of the Web [WAN 00] of culture [GAL 05] or the teaching of information research [RUT 08]. Another type of information can be considered as a holistic approach making it possible for example to recognize needs better. This approach was developed recently in Norway for bioeconomics: “A holistic approach: to do this, over a period of three years (2015–2018), researchers from the Norwegian center for rural research (which is leading the project), SINTEF, Nibio, NTNU and Norut, as well as a number of international research institutes, will work on eleven working modules and so cover most aspects of the transition to a bioeconomy. The key element of this project is an enquiry, now underway, involving 1,500 businesses in the sectors of agriculture, forestry, fishing, industry and the biosciences, to better understand their vision of the future. What are they now using their resources for, and where do they foresee opportunities for change in theirsector?” [FRA 16].

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4.5. On scientific journals The classical vector for sharing knowledge was and still is scientific publication in specialist journals. Publication in these journals is controlled by editors, who have editorial policies. These are linked to their readership, to the journal’s speciality, to the language of publication and of course to subscription costs (it is not always free) or the sales price of a scientific publication’s “full text”. This editorial policy has led leading editors as well as different databases (for example INIST [CAT 17]2 at CNRS), to make databases available to the public (free from the editors’ perspective, for summaries of publications in their journals) and paid-for databases accessible via different servers such as Dialog [DIA 17], STN [STN 17], Questel Orbit [QUE 17], etc. or different portals such as CNKI [CNK 17] in China. This diffusion via these supports generally provides access to a summary of publications, but access to their whole texts requires payment, between US$ 15 and 40 on average. Libraries, in some cases, have subscriptions to scientific journals which makes it possible to access all their publications, but it is clear that the multiplication of scientific journals on the one hand and the ever-growing cost of subscriptions on the other is creating budgeting problems. Large databases, such as Chemical Abstracts [CAS 17], Medline, Biosis, Inspec, Compendex, etc. have been created to provide potential readers with a summary (indexed to varying degrees) of all the work published in a domain. For example, a database such as Chemical Abstracts [ACS 17] selects a number of sources on activities linked to chemistry (this is the database’s coverage), then for all these sources, which are often written in different languages, it provides an English translation and English-language indexing of the publications that appear in them. The indexing may be relatively inconsistent, from just a few key words to the chemical structure of molecules. Those “abstracts” that appear as a paper edition are now accessible in electronic form via servers that, using data entered by the producer (for example Chemical Abstracts), process this electronically to enable it to be consulted online.

2 Since 1973, the Institute of Scientific and Technical Information (Inist), documentation center of the French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS), has provided access to more than 17 million bibliographical references across the domains of science, technology, medicine, humanities and social sciences worldwide.

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Since the 1970s, this dissemination system has led to English language publications being preferred, both because most editors are English speakers, but also because English has become the common language of science. Moreover, systems for evaluating researchers have led research bodies to establish different criteria, dominated by the number and quality of publications. From these data, different bibliometrics usages make it possible to create the indexes used for evaluation. This practice, which is often misguided (La fièvre de l’évaluation de la recherche [GIN 08]) (the fever of research evaluation) also determines the journal’s impact. This impact is representative of the likelihood of an article published in a given journal being cited by other authors. This introduces three very significant biases that are not often considered by evaluators: the number of researchers present in the discipline (which potentially leads to more citations), the system of citations through “cronyism” often by a group of four authors who cite each other (citations via two or three authors can be detected more easily), some journals, although they may be extremely useful, are aimed at a readership that produces few or no scientific articles and so the journal has very few citations. This system of dissemination has thus brought to the fore in many disciplines a few journals that are considered internationally as the ultimate in publishing. Articles are selected with care and their quality is certain. But what about the rest? In fact, these high-quality journals are very few and only a small number of scientists have access to them. Indeed, science and scientific advances rely on a pyramid to which each researcher provides a contribution. Another point should also be considered: when a researcher publishes their work in a journal, they usually sign away all the publishing rights to their work to the journal’s editor and only retain intellectual ownership of the work. If we consider that many journals are not free, we then have a paradox: the researcher will pay for their work to be published (either directly or through the purchase of reprints) and at the same time, they will be deprived of publishing rights over their scientific production. As we have just described, this system has existed since the 1950s. But, if in the previous years the major upheaval was access to databases via fast networks such as Transpac [WIK 18a] in France, this situation is changing more and more rapidly with the development of information and communication technologies. In fact, the arrival of the Internet has made access to databases simpler, by promoting the development of simple query interfaces enabling “non-experts” to work with these databases. But although

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access has become simpler, there has not been any influence on costs. In addition, electronic publishing makes it possible to create books at low cost without going through traditional editors. For example, the Amazon Kindle format [WIK 18b] can be used by individuals to publish their work for free. It will be read on tablets, so the cost of accessing these books remains low (on the order of €10 or often even less). If we remember that an author loses publishing rights when they publish their work through a traditional editor, we see that the impact of new technologies (Open Access for example) should, eventually, profoundly change publishing mechanisms. Other, different aspects should also be considered: the costs of publishing and accessing information, the barrier of the publication language, a researcher’s reputation. For around eight years, we have been witnessing the development of a very large number of scientific journals that are mostly published online and indexed in very diverse databases. These journals, which often have attractive titles referring to English-speaking countries, charge a sum on the order of US$80 to 400 publication. The problem is an economic one: many of these journals exist for financial gain. In fact, located for the most part in countries where labor costs are low, they will be a significant source of revenue for the editors, since all the work is carried out online the overheads are low and thus the profits are substantial. This search for profit then leads to the publication of work that is either plagiarized, of no interest, or at the worst a joke. Recently, a completely false publication was sent to more than 300 journals. More than half accepted it without corrections or with only minor corrections. It should be noted that among the journals that accepted the work, a good number featured in the Directory of Open Acesss (DOAJ), which aims to list open access journal of good quality. This gave rise to the appearance of a list of “predatory publishers” on the one hand, and also a relatively official site validating the quality of these journals using diverse criteria [BEA 15]. Among the criteria retained to characterize journals published by predatory editors, we can cite: “A predatory publisher may: – re-publish papers already published in other venues/outlets without providing appropriate credits;

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– use boastful language claiming to be a ‘leading publisher’ even though the publisher may only be a startup or a novice organization; – operate in a Western country chiefly for the purpose of functioning as a vanity press for scholars in a developing country (for example utilizing a maildrop address or PO box address in the United States, while actually operating from a developing country); – provide minimal or no copyediting or proofreading of submissions; – publish papers that are not academic at all, for example essays by laypeople, polemical editorials, or obvious pseudoscience; – have a ‘contact us’ page that only includes a web form or an email address, and the publisher hides or does not reveal its location”. This situation is quite worrying, as it reduces the credibility of all open access journals, which make access to published works accessible to a greater number. Currently, the open archive HAL [ARC 17] makes different scientific works available; researchers make these free to access in the open archive: “The multidisciplinary open archive HAL, is intended for depositing and publishing scientific articles at research level, published or not, as well as theses, from French or international teaching and research establishments or from public or private laboratories”. In France, a recent law states that if at least half the funding for research came from public funds, the work, even if it has been published, can be made available in this open archive six months after publication [REP 15], even when the author has granted exclusive rights to the publisher, but this only involves the text sent to the editor for publication and not the final publication that appears in the journal. The article the law affects is this: article 17, which creates a new article L. 533–4 in chapter III of title III of book V of the Research Code, relates to access to the results of public research.

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The academic world produces a considerable amount of information, in the form of scientific publications and data of all kinds. Access to this information and its re-use is a challenge which is simultaneously scientific (sharing knowledge and bringing knowledge to light, the reproducibility of research, interdisciplinary research and stimulating collaboration), economic (opportunities for economy of knowledge and innovation, especially for SMEs, rationalizing the means devoted to research, the changing cost to libraries of subscribing to journals), social and civil (civil participation in research, popular science education, etc.). Despite the possibilities opened up by digital publishing, access to information is not as easy as we might like. While it is estimated that the quantity of data generated by research is increasing by 30% each year, nearly 80% of the data generated over the last 20 years has been lost for lack of coordinated safeguarding policies. Beside these issues there appears a new risk of this data being stolen, especially by scientific editors who constantly ask for the sale of permission over data integrated into or linked to the research publications they edit. In this context, article 17 aims to promote the free publication of the results of public research, in accordance both with the recommendations of the European Commission (from July 17th, 2012) on the access to and the preservation of scientific information, and guidelines of the European research framework program Horizon 2020 (2014–2020). When it comes to access to scientific publications, the article retains the balanced approach favored by Germany, which has anticipated since January 1st, 2014 that, without prejudicing the copyright holder’s rights, the researcher will have “secondary rights” (“Zweitverwertungsrecht”) over their own publications. The first part of the law anticipates that publications resulting from research activity relying mainly on public funds can be made freely and publically accessible online by their authors, even when the author has given exclusive publication rights to the publisher for scientific work at the end of a maximum period of six months after initial publication. The gap will be 12 months for work in the human and social sciences, where the time for return on investment for publishers is longer. Re-use is free, unless it is published for commercial ends, which could prejudice the publisher. Availability extends to a final version of the text sent by the author to the

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editor before publication, as well as the protected research data linked to the publication. The second and third parts of the law aim to promote publication of research data, while still recognizing its essential contribution to the domain of shared knowledge. The second part specifies that the re-use of data from research activities financed mainly from public funds is free, so long as these data are not protected by a specific law, such as an intellectual property law, and so long as they have been made public by the researcher or research body. The third part indicates that the re-use of data cannot be restricted by contract when a piece of written scientific work with which the data are linked is published, when the work has been produced in the context of research financed mainly from public funds. The growth in the number of researchers in scientific production, but also due to the race for publications (in some countries, researchers or teacherresearchers are asked to publish something every one or two years for example) leads to a “block” if only “quality” and English-language publications are considered. This blockage is due to the fact that the costs borne by the publisher are too high, which then limits the number of articles published. A number of publishers find themselves trapped in this situation, the problem then being to sort the good articles from the bad. This also creates a problem for who referees the work. In fact, in most cases, reviewers review articles for free (this is important in some subjects) and so cannot spend enough time examining the works shown to them. It is true that in return, this gives them the earliest results before they are published. Here, we see the limits of the exercise and the biases that can result from it when there is competition between several research teams. In this regard, we can mention the heated debate that took place between research teams led by Professors Luc Montagnier (France) and Robert Gallo (United States) on the discovery of the AIDS virus [MOI 09]. Beyond competitions between research teams, the language barrier is significant, and at two levels: translation into English and considering a journal in a language other than English for indexing purposes. Being translated into English or personally mastering the language is a substantial barrier to publishing in some journals. In fact, a translation certificate is often requested before the work is published and reviewed. This then leads to a kind of “double punishment” for those who cannot publish in English or

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afford the funding to do so. It also opens the way for English co-authors of convenience, who are listed as co-authors of the paper without really contributing to it, which makes publishing much easier. This trend toward English being used as the basis for publication leads to works published in regional reviews being overlooked where work is published in a country’s own language. In fact, two aspects should be considered: indexing and translating the work have a significant cost for the producer of a database and on the other hand, these local journals will never have a high citation index and so, even if they are high quality, they will remain partly ignored. However, for those who know how to use them, they are often a source of interesting ideas that can be used in later work. For example, we can list the Chinese CNKI portal (China National Knowledge Infrastructure) that gives access to a number of local works. It might also be noted that the great effort made by China in the field of scientific publishing in Chinese-language media will have the opposite effect, creating a linguistic barrier that works against us. The CNKI portal [CNK 17] “is an important national information construction project directed by the University of Tsinghua and supported by the PRC minister of education, the PRC minister of sciences, the propaganda department of the Chinese Communist Party and the general administration for the press and publication. This was project was first launched in 1996 by the University of Tsinghua and the Tsinghua Tongfang Company. The first database was the China Academic Journals Full-text Database (CD version), which quickly became popular in China, especially in university libraries. In 1999, CNKI began to develop online databases. Until now, CNKI formed a complete system of resources integrated with Chinese information resources, including reviews, doctoral theses, master theses, conference proceedings, journals, annuals, statistical annuals, e-books, patents, norms and so forth. Ten publication centers and service management centers (CNKI) have been set up in Peking, North America, Japan, North Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong. CNKI is generally used by universities, research institutes, governments, think tanks, businesses, hospitals and public libraries across the entire world”3. The initial CNKI home page is shown in the figure below. For those who might be interested in consulting this portal, the University of Leeds has

5 Access to CNKI from outside China can be achieved via the following link: http://oversea. cnki.net/kns55/brief/result.aspx?dbPrefix=CJFD.

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created a quick guide [UOL 17] accessible via the Internet. We note that to use CNKI, it is necessary to enter certain terms or key words in simplified Chinese. This is done by using Google translate, with which we have been entirely happy.

Figure 4.6. Home page and description of CNKI. For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/dou/strategic2.zip

Another example where it will be important to consider the language used in a search is the following: if we search for works on sugar from some palm trees (this sugar has special nutritional properties), we can search in English using Google Scholar: with “palm sugar”, we obtain a number of results. However, if we remember that one of the foremost producers is Indonesia, this leads to us searching, still in Google Scholar (which is actually a multilingual database) with: “gula aren”4 to find interesting work by practitioners. But these are written in Indonesian. This reflects the difficulty linked to language when a database covering multi-lingual work is used: 6 Indonesian translation of “palm sugar”.

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– Google Scholar, limited to “since 2014” “palm sugar” AND diabetes, returns 228 results (January 15th, 2018); – Google Scholar, limited to “since 2014” “gula aren” AND diabetes, returns 89 results (January 15th, 2018). The level of coverage for both results is very low. 4.6. Conclusion Over the course of this chapter, we have seen the potential offered by a search for information as well as the biases to be avoided when choosing sources. We have also emphasized the fact that a good knowledge of the subject is vital to making good-quality queries whether at reductionist or holistic level. This leads to an emphasis on the means of seeking information as soon as an economic intelligence system has been put in place. As success requires a general overview of the subject to be addressed, the work should be carried out in direct association with a subject specialist and with someone who knows how to access the most relevant sources of information on the one hand, and on the other hand, who knows how to process this information to provide the most relevant indicators for the subject addressed. In this context, we can reach a two-fold, or indeed a three-fold competency by integrating, over the years, the global component “information and processing” in the context of activities [DOU 08]. Moreover, since the time factor is important, research and analysis should be updated regularly according to the evolution of works linked to the subject over time. 4.7. References [ACS 17] THE AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY, 2017, available at: http://www.acs. org/content/acs/en/education/whatischemistry/landmarks/cas.html. [ARC 17] ARCHIVE OUVERTE HAL, 2017, website available at: https://hal.archivesouvertes.fr/. [BEA 15] BEALL J., Criteria for determining predatory open-access publishers, Online article, 2015, available at: https://scholarlyoa.files.wordpress.com/ 2012/11/criteria2012-2.pdf.

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[BEN 00] BENNETTS P.-D., WOOD-HARPER A.-T., MILLS S., “A holistic approach to the management of information systems development: a view using a soft systems approach and multiple viewpoints”, Systemic Practice and Action Research, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 189–205, 2000. [BER 00] BERGERON P., Veille stratégique et PME. Comparaison des politiques gouvernementales et de soutien, Presses de l’université du Québec, Quebec City, pp. 102–103, 2000. [BUR 99] BURNETT K., KWONG BOR N., SOYEON P., “A comparison of the two traditions of metadata development”, Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology, vol. 50, no. 13, 1999, available at: http://www. sims.monash.edu.au/subjects/ims2603/resources/week10/10.2.pdf. [CAS 17] CAS (A DIVISION OF THE AMERICAN CHEMICAL SOCIETY), Website, 2017, available at: https://www.cas.org/. [CAT 17] CAT.INIST, Journal, Website, 2017, available at: http://cat.inist.fr/. [CNK 17] CNKI, Website, 2017, available at: http://en.cnki.com.cn/. [DAT 17] COMMIT EE ON DATA OF THE INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL Website, 2017, available at: http://www.codata.org/.

FOR

SCIENCE,

[DAV 94] D’AVENI R.A., Hyper-Competition, Managing the Dynamics of Strategic Maneuvering, pp. 176–177, Free Press, New York, 1994. [DIA 17] DIALOG com/bluesheets/.

BLUESHEETS,

[DOA 17] DOAJ (DIRECTORY available at: https://doaj.org/.

OF

2017,

available

at:

http://library.dialog.

OPEN ACCESS JOURNALS), Website, 2017,

[DOU 08] DOU H., “Des sciences dures à la veille technologique et à l’intelligence économique”, in J.-P. BERNAT (ed.), L’intelligence économique : co-construction et émergence d’une discipline via un réseau humain, Hermès-Lavoisier, Cachan, 2008. [DOU 17] DOU H., Information Bits and Tips about Competitive Intelligence, Kindle Amazon, 2017. [FAC 17] FACTURATION DIALOG, 2017, com/bluesheets/html/bl0002.html.

available

at:

http://library.dialog.

[FRA 16] FRANCE DIPLOMATIE, “Projet Biosmart : la Norvège recherche sa bioéconomie”, March 16, 2016, available at: http://www.diplomatie.gouv. fr/fr/politique-etrangere-de-la-france/diplomatie-scientifique/veille-scientifique-ettechnologique/norvege/article/projet-biosmart-la-norvege-recherche-sa-bioeconomie.

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[GAL 05] GALLIVAN M., SRITE M., “Information technology and culture: identifying fragmentary and holistic perspectives of culture”, Information and Organization, vol. 15, no. 4, pp. 295–338, 2005, available at: http://www.cis.gsu. edu/mgallivan/journal/Gallivan_and_Srite_Info_and_Organization_2005.pdf. [GIN 08] GINGRAS Y., “La fièvre de l’évaluation de la recherche : du mauvais usage de faux indicateurs”, Bulletin de méthodologie sociologique, vol. 100, no. 1, pp. 41–44, 2008, available at: https://bms.revues.org/3313. [GRE 05] GREENBERG J., “Understanding metadata and metadata schemes”, Cataloging & Classification Quarterly, vol. 40, nos 3–4, pp. 17–36, 2005, available at: http://www.columbia.edu/cu/libraries/inside/units/bibcontrol/osmc/greenberg.pdf. [ISD 17] ISDM (INFORMATION SCIENCE FOR DECISION MAKING), Website, 2017, available at: http://isdm.univ-tln.fr/isdm.html. [LIU 13] LIU P., BOUTIN E., DUVERNAY D. et al., “Les Thésaurus comme outils de repérage de la diversité culturelle dans les pratiques d’une discipline. Approche expérimentale dans le champ de l’intelligence économique”, HAL, 2013, available at: https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/52781874.pdf. [MOI 09] MOINET N., Liberté, compétitivité, sécurité : la communication scientifique entre coopération et concurrence, Sécurité Globale, Éditions Eska, Paris, 2009. [MOO 01] MOORE A., JONES A., SIMS P. et al., “Integrated coastal zone management’s holistic agency: an ontology of geography and GeoComputation”, The 13th Annual Colloquium of the Spatial Information Research Centre, Dunedin, New Zealand, November 26–28, 2001, available at: https://www. researchgate.net/profile/Antoni_Moore/publication/228397767_Integrated_Coastal_ Zone_Management’s_Holistic_Agency_An_Ontology_of_Geography_and_Geo Computation/links/54adb6340 cf2213c5fe41827.pdf. [NAI 03] NAIDOO A., The impact of competitive intelligence practices on strategic decision-making, PhD thesis, Université de Natal Durban, 2003, available at: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.833.8758&rep=rep1& type=pdf. [POW 95] POWELL T.-W., “The information metabolism”, Competitive Intelligence Review, vol. 4, pp. 41–45, 1995. [QUA 99] QUAZZOTTI S., DUBOIS C., DOU H., Veille technologique. Guide des bonnes pratiques en PME/PMI, Guide for the European Commission, 1999. [QUE 17] QUESTEL ORBIT, Website, 2017, available at: http://www.questel.com/ index.php/en/support/coverage.

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[REP 15] ASSEMBLÉE NATIONALE, Projet de loi pour une République numérique, no. 3318, 2015, available at: http://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/14/projets/ pl3318.asp. [RIL 04] RILEY J., Understanding metadata: what is metadata, and what is it for?: A Primer, Guide, National Information Standards Organization, Baltimore, 2004. [RUT 08] RUTHVEN I., ELSWEILER D., NICOL E., Designing for users: an holistic approach to teaching information retrieval, Workshop, 2008, available at: https://epub.uni-regensburg.de/22683/1/ruthven2008_teaching.pdf. [STN 17] STN, Website, 2017, available at: http://www.cas.org/products/ stn/dbss. [UOL 17] UNIVERSITY OF LEEDS, THE UNIVERSITY LIBRARY, CNKI: China Academic Journals: quick start guide, 2017, available at: https://library.leeds. ac. uk/dowmload/downloads/id/330/cnki_china_academic_journals_quick_start_ guide.pdf. [WAN 00] WANG P., HAWK W.-B., TENOPIR C., “Users’ interaction with World Wide Web resources: an exploratory study using a holistic approach”, Information Processing & Management, vol. 36, no. 2, pp. 229–251, 2000. [WIK 19a] WIKIPEDIA, org/wiki/Transpac.

“Transpac”,

2019,

[WIK 19b] WIKIPEDIA, “Amazon Kindle”, wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_Kindle.

available 2019,

at:

http://fr.wikipedia.

available

at:

http://en.

[ZIN 17] ZINS BEAUCHESNE ET ASSOCIÉS, “Comment innover lorsqu’on est soustraitant”, Dailymotion, 2017, available at: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/ xfsm29.

5 Examples of Bibliometric Analysis of Scientific Information and Patents

In this chapter, there is no question, whether for scientific publications or patents, of presenting in detail everything that can be achieved in bibliographic searches. If the reader wishes to learn more on this specific point in detail, they can consult a general work that explores the possibilities of information research more deeply, particularly when using Google [DOU 17] and the Internet [BON 18], as well as various publications and books. In the previous chapter, we saw that [DES 11, WAY 94] the purpose is initially to move away from a pointed and reductionist vision, and toward a global and holistic vision of the subject. It is only after this that analysis of results makes it possible to refine research according to the needs of the user, which may differ from what they were at the outset depending on the new directions detected during general analysis. In this chapter, we will address three aspects: – a global vision starting with specialist search engines; – analyzing scientific publications using two examples: the Web of Science (WoS) [WIK 18a] and Google Scholar [FLA 14]; – information taken from patents. In the references cited throughout these three topics, the reader will find all the information needed to explore this domain in more depth. On the other hand, so far as possible, we will use free sources or information processing software that present the best compromise between efficiency, ergonomics, cost and processing time.

Strategic Intelligence for the Future 2: A New Information Function Approach, First Edition. Henri Dou, Alain Juillet and Philippe Clerc. © ISTE Ltd 2019. Published by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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5.1. Specialist search engines These are search engines linked to statistical analysis programs that carry out “clustering” [BUS 17]1 of results. It is therefore possible, starting with a question asked by the user and using the source(s) of information processed by the search engine, to acquire a global vision of the subject more or less immediately. 5.1.1. Carrot2 [CAR 17] This is one of the most well-known specialist search engines; it uses the Web and Medline [PUB 17] as sources of information, but also uses various Wikis [WIK 18b] (free access to medical and paramedical publications and to explanations on various Wikipedia pages). Figures 5.1, 5.2 and 5.3 show the different results obtained from a question (Moringa [WIK 18c])2 and the sources of information above in the form of a bubble diagram. The results are shown as interactive bubble foams. The size of a bubble foam indicates the importance of the Websites involved. By selecting a bubble foam, we reach different sites which can then be consulted directly. We can also use other representations or even simply use the clustering used in the foam diagram. Here, we have tackled a general topic, but it is possible to work in the same way using the names of authors, societies etc. The results shown here were obtained on February 8, 2017. 5.1.2. Wikimindmap [WIK 18d] This application is provided here for information, to demonstrate the creation of heuristic maps. In fact, after ceasing to function for a time, this application reappeared on the Web, but no longer seems to be available. However, an API is available to integrate this into clustering applications [API 17]. 1 “Statistical classification technique in which cases, data, or objects (events, people, things, etc.) are sub-divided into groups (clusters) such that the items I a cluster are very similar (but not identical) to one another and very different from the items in other clusters. It is a discovery tool that reveals associations, patterns, relationships, and structures in masses of data”. 2 Moringa products are widely used in Africa and Asia notably to fight malnutrition.

Figure 5.1. Map using the Web as a source of information. Subject, Moringa. For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/dou/strategic2.zip

Examples of Bibliometric Analysis of Scientific Information and Patents 99

Figure 5.2. Map using Pubmed as a source of information. Subject, Moringa. For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/dou/strategic2.zip

100 Strategic Intelligence for the Future 2

Figure 5.3. Map using different Wikis as a source of information. Subject, Moringa

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Figure 5.4. Data clustering obtained from the English Wiki using the term Moringa

Figure 5.5. Data clustering obtained from the French Wiki using the term Moringa. For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/dou/strategic2.zip

Here, we use various Wikis as sources of information, but not always in general, they are chosen according to the language used by the Wiki. Notably, this makes it possible to see how a single subject is treated in different countries. It is the English Wiki that will lead to the best results, as it contains more subjects. We always use Moringa as the query. We note here the difference between the two types of Wiki (Figures 5.4 and 5.5). The representation of the French Wiki is richer and this is certainly due to the fact that Moringa is widely used in French-speaking areas of Africa. Also, note that one can click on the plus (+) signs present after the data to extend the map. When two green arrows follow, this means that one can access a website by clicking on them.

Figure 5.6. Country chosen, France, domain, Technology. By selecting a topic you can obtain detailed information

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5.1.3. Newsmap N [ [NEW 17] At thhe time of writing w (Februuary 2018), this t site is not accessiblee and we do not know if it will w return. This speciallist search engine workss mainly using print p media. It is generaally used fo or geopoliticcs, because one can choose a country off origin and a domain an nd visualize different artticles on ore data therre is availablle. When the subjject. The largger the rectaangle, the mo it is useed for free, one o can only access one article a per doomain (per rrectangle containiing information). It will be b noted thatt on the bottoom left of Fiigure 5.6 there is the date: Febbruary 8, 2017 and a cho oice of analysis time: 10 minutes, more thhan 10 minuttes, more thaan an hour. On the uppeer row: the cchoice of countriees, on the low wer row, thee choice of th hemes: worldd, national, bbusiness, technoloogy, sports, entertainmennt, health, etc. e There also seem to bbe some difficultties with accessing this appplication.

Figure e 5.7. Translattion: The spacce anchor testt to desorb the e satellites is a failure

On the t theme “tthe electro-m magnetic teth her for disorrbiting satelllites is a failure”, there are 133 articles onn the subject, but the freee version onlly allows t one. An exxtract of this is given in Box B 5.1. access to

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The ele ectro-magnetic tether for dissorbiting satellites is a failurre An experimental device d designedd to accelerate the t disorbiting of o large objectss in orbit by equiipping them wiith a tether has failed, JAXA’ss operators annnounced on Febbruary 7, 2017.

Figure 5.8.. The KITE tesst used on the e Japanese cargo Kounotorii-6 (comp puter image)© ©JAXA

Shippped in Decem mber 2016, the Japanese J supply y ship Kounotoori-6 was dockeed at the Internattional Space Sttation (ISS). Attached A to its hull was a new w experimentall device, baptizedd KITE (Kounnotori Integratedd Tether Experriments) consissting of a sort oof space anchor weighing 20 kilos k linked to the cargo by a 700-meter lonng rope, intendded to be deployeed at the end off the supply miission in a test of accelerated disorbiting. d In ppractice, this eleectrodynamic stem, formed of o threads mad de from steel and a aluminum, should, thanks to electro-magnnetism, slow thhe cargo in its course and so accelerate its rreturn to Earth annd its destructioon in the Earth’s atmosphere. The idea was, if i the proceduree proved successsful, to equip alll future satellittes with a simillar system so thhat they wouldd not end up as a clutter orbitingg the Earth oncee their mission was w complete. Box 5.1. Extract from m an article on the theme of space anchorring from July 2, 2017. Availab ble online at: https://www.sc h ciencesetaven nir.fr/espace/kkite-le-test-de-ll-ancresp patiale-pour-d desorbiter-le-ccargo-japonais s-kounotori-a-e echoue_11039 93

Therre are other specialist seearch enginees, such as Tagcrowd T [T TAG 18] which selects s the most m significaant words fro om a text annd represents them in varying sizes dependding on theirr frequency, while iBooggie [DIR 18] which is a speciaalist engine for f searchingg in preselecteed commerciaal searches, bbut which

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is no longer accessible, etc. In this domain, applications emerge and then, just as quickly, disappear. Here, we have indicated the most “stable”, which have lasted over time. 5.2. Scientific publications There are numerous sources of information on scientific publications, especially on the many databases available from different servers such as STN [STN 17] or Dialog [DIA 17] for example. These servers generally provide access to structured data formats, allowing statistical processing. For more information on this subject, consult Hervé Rostaing’s thesis [ROS 96] which is a good introduction to the subject as well as the book La bibliométrie et ses techniques [ROS 96] (The Bibliometrics and its Techniques). There is also a comparison between the different sources Pubmed, WoS, Google Scholar and Patents in a recent book [DOU 16a]. There are also free sources, such as Pubmed [PUB 17] which provides access to Medline or Google Scholar databases [FLA 14] and currently has one of the best scientific coverages, but it does not allow structured downloading of data. There are also other sources of information such as RefDoc [INI 18] from CNRS, databases of French theses [CAT 17], CNKI [WIK 18e] providing access to Chinese works etc., but given the number of sources, it is not possible for us to indicate all of them and in any case, we will focus in this chapter on those that show a structured bibliometric format. 5.2.1. Google Scholar Generally, a search on Google Scholar leads to a succession of data presented according to the search characteristics of the Web. This data cannot be downloaded in “packets”. Its benefit lies in the fact that Google Scholar has one of the best coverages of the sciences, as very diverse sources of information (all of scientific nature, including American patents) are indexed. This makes it possible both to make a fairly exhaustive search and to access documents in different languages (depending on the language used for the enquiry), but also to access data formats for the data sought, which is particularly useful. Here is an example of information obtained from Google Scholar, which gives access to information not found in classic databases.

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PDF Economic intelligence and the information system J Joachim, J Kister, Y Bertacchini, H Dou – Revue ISDM, 2006 – researchgate.net Competitive intelligence, whether applied on the ground or within businesses, is now becoming a necessity. Competition is being exacerbated and the rules are changing, often not in ways that favor us. Cited 7 times Other Articles 4 versions Cite Save More Box 5.2. Example of information obtained from Google Scholar as it appears on screen (translated from French to English–original article: Intelligence économique & système d’information)

Clicking “Cite” (see below) provides access to different citation formats: – Joachim J., Kister J., Bertacchini Y., Dou H., Intelligence économique et Système d’information, 2006; – Joachim J., Kister J., Bertacchini Yann et al., “Intelligence économique & système d’information”, Revue ISDM, vol. 24, 2006; – Joachim J. et al., “Intelligence économique & système d’information”, Revue ISDM 24, 2006. NOTE.– [PDF] means the whole text can normally be accessed for free. J. Kister, Y. Bertacchini, H. Dou: the authors’ names are underlined, which means that their profile can be accessed in Google Scholar. An example of a profile obtained by clicking on an underlined name is shown in Figure 5.9. To create a profile, you need to register (for free) in Google. 5.2.2. Access to Google Scholar since PoP (Publish or Perish) An original form of processing information obtained from Google Scholar has been developed by Anne Harzing [HAR 07]. She developed a software (PoP) that makes it possible both to extract data from Google Scholar (up to a thousand references), then to structure it and present it in table form. At the same time, a number of factors (h-index, impact, etc.) linked to the data’s statistical processing are also shown. It is possible to search by theme and by author name, which is a quick and general approach to covering a domain or author. The software used can be downloaded for free and of course, access to the source of information is also free. Figure 5.10 shows the result of a search on the topic: “competitive intelligence” and “strategic dependence” between 2000 and 2017.

Figure 5.9. Example of an author profile in Google Scholar

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Figure 5.10. Result obtained from PoP (inquiry in English)

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Results can be saved in text, CSV or excel format. In this example, we will not expand on the meaning of the different indexes [HIR 17]; these relate to data on the number of works published by the authors, the number of citations, etc. It is also possible to save all references in different formats. This is practical, as some of these saved files are formatted, which makes it possible to process them easily using bibliometric analysis software [MAT 17c]. Although direct access is not allowed by Google Scholar, using PoP as an intermediary it is thus possible to access data sets (no more than a thousand) taken from Google Scholar and formatted. 5.2.3. The Web of Science (WoS) The Web of Science is a multidisciplinary database which is often used at a scientific level to evaluate researchers. However, it is critiqued by the fact that it has relatively specialist coverage (major scientific publishers, preponderance of the English language and selected journals). The three databases most often used – Web of Science, Google Scholar and Pubmed – show significant differences that have been analyzed by the Michigan State Library [MIC 17] in the United States: “Both Pubmed and Web of Science are human-curated databases. Google Scholar is not. This is the key to most of the differences you will find in your search results [...]. Google Scholar is not a human-curated database but a search engine of the whole internet [...]. Both the Web of Science and Google Scholar take care of citations, Pubmed does not [...]. Google Scholar searches full text of articles but PubMed and Web of Science search only the citation, abstract, and tagging information”. Enquiries in the WoS are made in the classic way and results are downloaded in the form of a text file, which is naturally formatted. For analysis, we then use (from tens to several thousands of bibliographic references if necessary) the Matheo Analyzer [MAT 17c] software, which is one of the best compromises between performance, cost, speed and

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ergonomics. In the example shown below (Table 5.1), a search has been made on WoS with the term Moringa, between 2010 and 20143, which gave: Year

Number of publications

2015

96

2014

136

2013

102

2012

82

2011

80

2010

4

Table 5.1. Distribution of publications by year

Which shows major interest in products coming from this plant from 2011. The enquiry returns: Total number of references

1,065

Extraction [IMP 17]: total number of authors

1,730

Extraction: number of concepts extracted from titles

3,141

Number of groups extracted by the user from the concepts and depending on their concerns

10

3 Importing data into the Matheo Analyzer software can be achieved with the help of pre-established tables, which leads to immediate importation of data. If the table (for the source considered) is not native to the software, it can easily be established by the user from the structure of the references. Available at: http://www.matheo-analyzer.com.

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Water (including water purification, extraction, etc.)

36

Oil

34

Seed

39

Bark

3

Leaf

40

Root

6

Fuel

4

Antioxidant

20

Anti-inflamatory

14

Anticancer

18

Coagulation

37

Table 5.2. Breakdown of information on user needs

We can then recombine information according to needs. For example, creating a network of main actors, with the following parameters: form (author) frequencies 5–17, Pair frequencies 1–17, Connectivity 0–66. Beside each author the number of publications is indicated and on each link, its frequency is indicated. Where authors’ names aren’t linked, this simply means that the author has published alone, since the frequency threshold chosen for the links between authors is 1. Figure 5.12 shows the emergence of concepts over years of publication for the concept “coagulant”. It can be shown that this concept only gained momentum from 2012. One can also compare different concepts with sources of publication, laboratory addresses, countries of origin, etc. This makes it possible to have an overall view of the “subject” Moringa at the level of areas of work, but also the countries and laboratories involved.

113

Figure 5.11. Network of main authors

Examples of Bibliometric Analysis of Scientific Information and Patents

Figure 5.12. Development of the concept of coagulation over the years of publication

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5.2.4. Pubmed This database is free and any enquiry result can be downloaded in structured text format. Importation into analysis software is immediate, as the importation table is native. The search using the term Moringa was carried out between 2013 and 2015. We obtain: Results

Quantity of data extracted

Number of references

120

Number of authors

553

Number of affiliations + universities

143

Number of countries

32

Concepts extracted from titles

475

Mesh Terms

466

Journal titles

83

Concepts extracted by the user from concepts extracted from titles

3

Rat

21

Leaf

12

Main authors (freq. 2-6)

17

Table 5.3. Items downloaded and extracts from the enquiry “Moringa”

We can then combine the different extractions to obtain meta-data providing general information on the subject. In the following figures we find some examples. Figure 5.15 represents inter-university collaborations. The matrix shown (partial view only) is a squared matrix made with different publication affiliations. The intersection of the columns and lines gives the number of publications made through collaboration with two universities. The names of the universities are abridged, but by moving the mouse over the abridged name you can see the whole name.

Figure 5.13. Origins of the main authors’ works

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Concept “ leaf ”

“rat”

Moringa oleifera leaf

1

methanolic leaf

Wistar albino rat

laboratori anim

ameliorates alloxaninduced diabet

1

Moringa oleifera leaf powder ethanolic Moringa oleifera leaf

Sprague Dawley rat

1 1

117

1

1

Table 5.4. Comparing the concepts “rat” and “leaf” and number of related publications

Figure 5.14. Network of authors working on fatty acids. This network is obtained by selecting “Mesh terms”, “fatty acids” and comparing them with the entire group of authors

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Figure 5.15. Inter-university collaborations

The data extracted can also be used as a powerful search tool, by comparing, for example, the titles (it is possible to select a word in the title, here “water”) and obtaining sources of information afferent to the titles selected. In Figure 5.16 we show the comparison between the “concept title: water” and the authors. The concept title is created automatically by analysis software.

Examples of Bibliometric Analysis of Scientific Information and Patents

Figure 5.16. Comparing titles containing the term “water” with authors

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In this presentation of an analysis of the information obtained from scientific publications, we have not drawn any conclusions on the types of work and results. We have simply shown the extent of the correlations that can be made. The choice of correlations and their interpretation lies to the user and their needs. We note the multiplicity of sources of information in particular, since in the selection made in Pubmed, we have publication by source, which leads to a very substantial dissemination of the results. 5.3. Information contained in the patents This subject has been tackled in multiple publications. We will not address it in detail, as the reader will find a great deal of information in the following references: [DOU 15a, DOU 16a, DOU 16b, WIP 17, PAT 17]. Nor will we consider the legal aspects linked to patents. Merely, we will consider that the growing number of patents deposited forms a living technical encyclopedia and that analyzing the information contained in them is a simple means of combating “technical illiteracy”. Using patent information also makes it possible to suggest interesting paths for developing countries [DOU 16c]. We will emphasize only a few specific facts likely to open up perspectives on processing and analysis for new readers. 5.3.1. General remarks on patents A patent only protects an invention in a country where the patent has been filed. A patent can be extended after it is first deposited (priority date) in other countries. There are diverse procedures for doing this: using national patent offices, in this case, there is a wait of a year after it is first filed. One can also use PCT procedures (global patent WOxxxxxx), or European procedures (European patents or EPxxxxxxx). If, after examination, the patent is granted, it is then sent to national procedures to determine which States it will be protected in.

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So, a single invention can be covered by patents with different numbers that will then form a family [EPO 17]. When only one patent is not extended, the family only contains one member. A patent’s lifespan in 20 years. A five-year extension is possible for some patents in the United States [WES 17], and for pharmaceutical products in Europe, it is possible to prolong the patent’s lifespan [MAR 97]: the Supplementary Protection Certificate (CCP – Certificat complémentaire de protection) is a title extending the legal duration of a pharmaceutical patient by the period necessary for obtaining market authorization, a lengthy and complex administrative procedure aimed at protecting human health. Currently, China deposits the most patents in the world. Chinese patents can be accessed in English via the CNIPA site [CNIPA 17] (National Intellectual Property Administration), but the worldwide database [WOR 17] (Espacenet Patent Search) also makes it possible to access Chinese patents easily. Moreover, it has summaries of utility models which is not the case with the CNIPA database. Around half the patents deposited are utility models [BEC 13, STA 10]. The utility models are “petty patents” which are easily granted (there is simply an examination form and they cost much less than a patent), but which can still be opposed by third parties (it is at this moment that a substantive examination is carried out). The lifespan of a utility model in China is 10 years but it may be less for other countries. Although in the west, we consider utility models as relatively unimportant, it is vital for businesses working in, exporting to, or filing patents in China to be examined. The case of Schneider Electric is a good example, as failure to take account of a utility model forced this firm to pay a fine of 23 million US dollars to a Chinese business: “The effectiveness of utility models was demonstrated in recent litigation in China between Chint, a manufacturer of low voltage devices in China, and Schneider electric. In that litigation, Chint succeeded in asserting its utility model against Schneider and obtained a verdict of $49 million, a productive result for a utility model application with just a $70 filing fee. Chint’s utility model survived Schneider’s subsequent invalidity challenge, with Schneider settling the lawsuit for $23 million. While the dollar amounts might seem small in comparison to patent litigation in the U.S., the Chint case has been described as one of the largest patent damages verdicts in China to date. When to use a Utility

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Model there are a number of situations when a company should consider filing for one or more utility models” [JEW 10]. Some national patent offices, for lack of means to examine patents, consequently deliver patents on formalities and not after substantive examination. In this case, extending these patents at international level (WO, EP, US, etc.) where substantive examination is carried out carefully is not often possible. It is therefore necessary, if we wish to use one of these patents, to verify its “solidity” at the level of scientific and technical content. If they are under examination (US WO EP procedure), the Patentscope database [PAT 17a] provides information on the state of examination and indicates the patents judged to be enforceable by the examiner. If patents are classed as X or Y [BRE 17], this indicates that opposition is particularly strong and that the patent examined will not be granted, or various claims will not be upheld. In addition to fees for deposits and specialist consultants, protection is kept up to date by the payment of annuities, which will increase as the patent ages. This is why it is generally said that patents more than 10 years old are often abandoned. We can verify this using specialist databases. However, there are no systematic means of knowing if a patent is in use or not. Of all the patents deposited, it is estimated that only 20% are actually used. This figure varies depending on the country, for example in Algeria only 0.1% of patents are used [ALG 17]. Some authors even indicate that 97% of patents deposited do not bring in any money [KEY 17]. We can also consider the cost of depositing patents whose content has little chance of being accepted. Often, this situation results from very poor documentary research at the outset. This can be carried out internally by the depositing party themselves, or we can then have recourse to what is now called “the Virtual Patent Office” or VIPO, which is in fact a specialist research bureau that – for a considerable cost – will carry out research for you. Thomson Reuters announced the following figures for depositing US and EP (European) patents: “Hundreds of thousands of patent applications are filed every year in the US and Europe (brevets européens). Over 500,000 patent applications are filed per year in the US, but only around 300,000 granted patents are issued. Similarly, about 150,000 patent applications are filed every year at the EPO, but only

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around 60,000 granted patents are issued. Globally, there are over one million patent applications filed annually but only 50– 70% of them result in a granted patent” [RES 17]. This therefore results in: “A very conservative estimate for the cost of drafting and filing either a US or EP (European patent) application is around $ 10 000. Based on that estimate, the 200,000 applications that are filed in the US per year that will not result in a grant adds up to 2$ billion. For the EPO, it comes to another $ 1 billion spent annually on drafting and filing applications that will not yield a grant. For the US and EP alone, this is a combined gap of $ 3 billion per year.” You should therefore bear these statistics in mind if you wish to deposit a patent, first be sure that you or someone else will be able to use the invention and above all, be sure that a study of the previous state of the art shows that there is a good chance the patent will be granted. One should also bear in mind, that although we are straying into a legal framework here, that litigation over intellectual property is usually inordinately expensive. If a patent is not used, there is legislation in France on lack of use [INP 17]: “The legislator can impose upon the owner of the patent the obligation to exploit it. A patent is considered unused if three years from delivery of the patent, or four years counting the date the request is made, the owner of patent: – has not begun to use the invention that is the subject of the patent, nor made effective and serious preparation to do so; – or if they have not sold the product that is the subject of the patent in sufficient quantity to meet the needs of the French market; – or if they have abandoned the use or marketing of the patent for three years. Where the patent is not used after this time span, the sanction is that a license must be granted to any other individual who requests it.

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To make a request for a license under these circumstances, the individual making the request must show that: – they are able to use the invention seriously and effectively; – and that the owner of the patent has not granted them license to use it. The High Court tribunal, which the delivers the obligatory license, attaches conditions to it: duration, field of application, amount of royalties”. 5.3.2. Analyzing patent information The examples we are about to show are made from two specialist software (Patent Pulse and Matheo Patent) that allow: – remote work. Direct processing from your computer, considered as a terminal through an interface accessible via the Internet [PAT 17]4, the processing, analysis, data extractions and queries exported to a distant server. The following databases are accessible: Worldwide (EPO), USPTO Published full text (United States), USPTO granted full text (United States), EP full text, PCT full text (global patents), FR full text (France); – local work. This means downloading data onto your computer followed by local processing on a resident specialist software [MAT 17b]. The following databases are accessible: Worldwide, USPTO Published, USPTO granted. Here, it is not a question of tackling the analysis of patents (APA Automatic Patent Analysis) in detail, but of alerting the reader to their importance and showing the powerful processing treatments making it possible to explore subjects in an unconventional way. 5.3.2.1. Remote processing The characteristics of the software used have been described in the literature [DOU 16d]. This working platform (Patent Pulse) makes it possible to carry out searches in different databases, to save requests (remotely) or

4 A software providing a platform for processing and exchange, a good compromise between speed, usability, performance and subscription cost.

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references downloaded (each time a request is made, the search is updated, while if references are stored, it is for the user, if they wish, to update their data). When the data are downloaded, automatic access to different histograms is suggested. The following documentary fields are involved: country (i.e. national) codes, depositors (applicants), the inventers, the international cooperative classification, the international classification, the US classification, the date of publication, the application date, the priority date. The user can then make histograms, matrixes and networks, using the following fields: depositors, normalized depositors, country of application, inventers, inventor’s country, CPC [WIK 18f], CPC4, CPC7, IPC [INT 17], IPC4, IPC7, US class, US main Class [USP 17], JPFI, JPF Term (these last two fields involve a classification for Japanese patents [JAP 17]). Thus, to quickly compare the inventors’ levels of expertise, an inventor matrix, IPC or IPC4 for example, will provide a comparative “bench mark”. The depositors can also be treated in the same way, etc. A filter also makes it possible to carry out searches in the downloaded base. Finally, data analysis should be completed via interaction between experts, to finalize more complete and exhaustive analyses and vary cognitive and economic approaches to the subject. Ronald N. Kostoff [KOS 01], in various documents, describes how using literature analysis through bibliometry can hasten discovery and radical innovation in science and technology. In a more specific study, he shows that to stimulate participation in workshops, the use of email beforehand was crucial [KOS 02]: “The e-mail component of the workshop is crucial. The gestation period between inputting promising ideas and real discussion during the workshop makes it possible to consider many different approaches and syntheses. It also makes possible to save a lot of time in the workshop by clarifying confusing questions at the outset”. Other studies also show that interaction between experts is a key stage for stimulating ideas and makes it easier to come up with new ones. The concept of “ba” [NON 00], Japanese for “space”, where interactions can emerge, underlines the importance of a physical or virtual space where experts can

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develop “alerts” (or in the best case “key knowledge topics” KIT). Nonaka, one of the authors, explained: “What differentiates ba from ordinary human interaction is the concept of creating knowledge. It is from such a platform that the transcendental perspective integrates all information needs”. The concept of platforms for developing different types of knowledge, and then the competitive advantage, has been extended to many domains such as regional development [ASH 11]. One of the main points, underlined by Purvis [PUR 01], is assimilating knowledge platforms into organizations: “Nevertheless, to reach the highest potential of organizational knowledge, we must not just be content with adopting and using “IT-enabled” knowledge platforms. These platforms should be assimilated into the current working process within organizations”. It is within this framework and by taking account of previous considerations that a system for analyzing patent information was set up, allowing users not only to select different sets of patents and carry out different analyses, but to create with different users, KITs (Key Intelligence Topics) depending on the importance of the subject or its possible evolutions. The system used here, accompanied by notes, their transfer to other users, the sharing of indexes containing the notices downloaded, etc. were designed to breakdown the user’s potential isolation. The granting of multiple licenses enables intra-company work but it is also possible to work with other users outside the business, by generating all the exchange links created confidentially. We will therefore present an example of processing that will complete the classic approach to making queries in a patent database. Generally, the questions asked may combine the previous fields (cited above in the example tackling the creation of histograms or matrices) plus the terms used either in title or in titles and summaries, or in the whole text when it is accessible. This “classic” approach makes it possible to select a set of patents whose content will then be analyzed. In our example, a search with the term “snowboard” creates to a database, part of which is shown on Figure 5.17.

Figure 5.17. Database on downloaded “snowboard”

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The patent shaded in Figure 5.17 is of particular benefit for the user. Figure 5.18 shows its bibliographical notice. We can see that the patent number is followed by a letter and a digit. This letter and digit indicate how far advanced the patent examination is [SIG 17], that is its status. For example: • France FR Patent request: FR*******A1 Patent issued (from January 2000): FR*******B1 Request for additional certificate: FR*******A2 Request for utility certificate: FR*******A3

• International request PCT WO Request published before 2000 – A1 or A2: WO******* Request published after 1999 – A1 or A2: WO2001***** Later publication of the international research report – A3: WO2002*******

• Germany DE Patent request – A: DE*******A Patent request examined - B: DE*******B Patent issued – C1: DE*******C1 Patent issued – C2: DE*******C2 Utility model – U1: DE*******U1

• Request for European patent EP Request published – A1 or A2: EP******* Research report – A3: EP*******A3 Patent issued – B1: EP*****B1 Patent after modification – B2: EP*******B2

Figure 5.18. Letters shown after the number indicating how advanced the examination is

For American patents, consult the meaning of the kind codes (name given to the letters and digits above) [KIN 17]. In the present case: A1 = Patent Application Publication. This patent is part of a family of patents covering the same invention, this is the first point. It is also present in the downloaded database, issuing from the request “snowboard”. But, are these two sets enough to be sure that the majority of patents afferent to the theme of research have really been identified? This is not necessarily true. To partially answer this question, we will, starting with this patent, generate a group of similar patents by creating meta-data from its citations. In fact, patents, especially WO, have the peculiarity of citing patents and being cited by patents. There is no question here of addressing all possible analyses of citations [LIX 07, MIC 01], but of giving an example to give the economic intelligence practitioner a broader overview of the use of citations.

Figure 5.19. Patent WO201607744A1 presenting a particular interest for the reader

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Figure 5.20. Citations included in the patent WO2016077441A1

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We therefore t cliick on the ciitation windo ow (upper band), b and w we obtain the resuult shown in Figure F 5.20. We will now focus f on thhe patents cited c and especially e onn patent US667339615B1. Too do this, wee “open” the citations forr each of thee patents cited beelow (select the patent with w the mouse, then click on the icoon on the top left,, which openns the citationn space). Th his is done foor each of thee patents shown on Figure 5.20, 5 until we w stop at the American patent, w which is differennt.

Figure 5.2 21. Patents citted by and citin ng patent US6 6739615B1

This patent is key k for us, as it is citted by manyy other pateents and especiallly by the patent that is the focus of the user’s interest (WO201607744A1)). We can thhus concludee that the sett of patents that cite this onee (a very larrge set) are,, because off this citationn, directly linked to patent WO2016077 W 744A1. Becaause of this,, all these patents p are ppotential candidaates as subjects of inteerest. We then t automaatically recoover the numbers of these paatents, to form m a databasee of them auttomatically, which is wnloaded. This T set of paatents, somee of which may m be presennt in the then dow initial database d on “snowboard””, broaden the t initial research, whicch is not based on o a classicaal combination of Booleean operatorrs. This basee is then

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analyzed in detail and the results incorporated into the user’s concerns. This type of broadening of research is a holistic example of how to use meta-information. 5.3.2.2. Processing carried out on a local database with an appropriate analysis software Here, we will address a simple subject, with local processing of the analyses. A firm is interested in an analysis of welding equipment. We carry out research using the global patent database, with the terms “welding apparatus” present and patent summaries and titles, for the period 2009–2012. The period does not much matter for examples of processing. We thus obtain 3,211 patents distributed across 964 families. From this research, we will introduce as an example the search for “strategic dependency” [DOU 09, DOU 12] for some countries for the domain considered. In the same way as for previous analyses, the set of references is broken down according to the needs of the user. Number of patents

3,211 distributed over 964 families

Concepts: types of welding that interest the user

14 (the data are indicated by the number of families)

Friction

91

Ultrasonic

43

Pulse

18

University as depositor

13

PR=US Number of US priority patents

122

PR=CN

86

PR=KR

273

PR=JP

397

PR=DE

25

PR=EP

32

Examples of Bibliometric Analysis of Scientific Information and Patents

PN=US Total number of US patents including extensions

257

PN=CN

265

PN=KR

337

PN=JP

429

PN=DE

75

133

Table 5.5. Data on the user’s concerns. Data are extracted from automatic analysis of words in titles and summaries that can be accessed automatically

The concept of strategic dependence is introduced in the following way: a patent is first deposited in a given country, generally the home country of the depositor or one of the depositors. Then it (patent N) can be extended following either national procedures, or by it becoming a European or global patent with a choice of states where the invention should be protected (states O, P, etc.). Thus, it is possible to determine the contribution of a patent N to the strategic dependency of this patent in states O, P, etc. Patent WO2012041375A1 (“A welding apparatus and a method for welding”) is a European patent of Swedish origin, which was extended to the United States following a PCT procedure. Thus, the United States display a strategic dependency on Sweden for the topic the patent addresses, which is a type of machine for welding. This means that, if the patent has been accepted, the following states will have dependency where this technology is concerned: China, Russia, Japan, Australia, Canada, South Korea and the United States. In fact, they will not be able to use the invention described freely and they will either have to create a partnership with the Swedish firm, pay them royalties or reach a licensing agreement. This is the concept of a country’s strategic dependency where a particular technology is involved. In the present case, for all the patent families that fall under the topic “welding apparatus”, we can calculate the strategic dependency of various countries on other countries (or businesses). To do this, we will create the following matrix.

Figure 5.22. Extension an an initial parent during the PCT procedure

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Figure 5.23. Matrix created from priority countries (PR*) 5 and countries present in the patent number (PN*) . For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/dou/strategic2.zip

The matrix can be read line by line: – those that have been extended to Germany (DE): 18 Japanese patents, 29 American patents, one Chinese patent and two South Korean patents; – those that have been extended to the United States (US): 94 Japanese patents (including six with double Japanese and American priority), two Chinese patents, four South Korean patents and 16 German patents; – those that have been extended to China (CN): 106 Japanese patents, 48 American patents, seven South Korean patents, nine German patents + four (EP), 10 EP patents (including one French, four German, three Swedish and one where the depositor is not given; – those that have been extended to Japan (JP): 33 American patents, two Chinese patents, two South Korean patents and seven German patents; – those that have been extended to South Korea (KR): 41 Japanese patents, 22 American patents, two Chinese patents and two German patents. Some results show a very low variation compared to manual counting. This is due mainly to patents that show a double priority and to some European patents that simply have priority in Europe, that is the European patent. In this case, we must return to the depositor’s nationality to determine their country of priority. 5 A patent number takes the form “FR5678654A”, whether for the PN (Patent Number) or the PR (Priority Number). It is therefore easy to search, using the formulation PN/FR*, for all French patents (those with French priority or those extended to France) or with PR/FR* for all the patents that have a French priority.

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This method of working, which calls for the use of meta-information, is particularly powerful. It could be used when deciding on a region or country’s strategic technologies or to decide a policy of extending patents or licensing in start-ups or universities. Knowledge of a country’s technological dependency in certain domains should be measured to guide investments in domains where blocking due to foreign patents is not evident. We will now briefly address the concept of new entrants. The five Porter forces show a diagonal formed both by the appearance of new technologies and by the arrival of new entrants in the domain considered, these entrants are still unknown and may disrupt the market. Analyzing the information contained in the patents is one instrument of choice for finding new entrants or detecting the appearance of new technologies. This last point is fairly easy to address, as starting with the general subject “welding apparatus”, automatic access to words contained in the titles and summaries as well as the creation of “concept titles” makes it possible to detect new technologies or directions simply from reading. It thus makes it possible to find the patents that describe them and regroup the information into a general concept that will then be analyzed. On the other hand, detecting new entrants will require the creation of a general matrix of priority dates versus applicants. The priority data is always used as the date, because it is concrete and not subject to variation [POR 07]. Applications are described in Figures 5.24 and 5.25. In this partial view of the matrix, “priority years versus applicants”, the potential new entrants are businesses that did not have patents in previous years and which only appear in recent years: Amaperex Technology Ltd. only appears in 2011, the same goes for Ningde Amperex Technology Ltd or Seidensha Electronics, etc. On the contrary, some applicants no longer appear in recent years and have thus disappeared from the field of activity (at least as far as intellectual property is concerned). The same process can be carried out for each of the themes selected. One can also, if necessary, evaluate the novelty of these topics by comparing the latter with the priority. At a topic level, we see that friction welding is a fairly constant activity, ultrasonic welding is in relative decline and the domain of magnetic pulse welding, although it appeared quite recently, also seems to be disappearing rapidly.

Figure 5.24. New entrants in the domain of ultrasound

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Figure 5.25. Trends in patent deposits (counting by families) by year

For all patents – including priorities and extensions – we see that the main activity in this domain was focused in the years 2006 to 2011 and that afterwards, there was a noticeable drop in interest. We note that the method’s reliability is linked to the quality of the query. If through lack of vocabulary we “lack” some significant patents, it is clear that the final results are wrong. This way of working, which gives a global view of a domain’s evolution, enables global reflection and positions the paths to be taken in a broader and more international context. In this sense, it is very useful for making dashboards. 5.4. Text mining from unstructured texts In the previous examples, we examined the analysis of structured information, that is information that has documentary fields with field delimiters, recognizable on an informational scale. When searching the whole text, that is without delimiting the field, it is necessary to use grammatical properties to count the words and expressions present and form occurrence or co-occurrence matrices that will be used to show the text in the form of matrices, networks, etc.

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Many examples of such processing exist in literature. A good description of data mining is available on the French-language Wikipedia site: “Text mining or the extraction of knowledge from texts is a data mining specialism and forms part of the domain of artificial intelligence. It covers the IT processes involved in extracting knowledge on the criteria of its novelty or similarity in texts produced by humans for humans. In practice, it amounts to putting into algorithm form a simplified model of linguistic theories in computer learning systems and statistics. The disciplines involved are therefore computational linguistics, language engineering, artificial learning, statistics and IT. In the context of economic intelligence: text mining methods contribute to the process of economic intelligence: relationship mapping, detecting explicit relationships between actors (granting licenses, mergers/acquisitions, etc.)” [WIK 18g]. Other methods have been developed for when the subject to be addressed is known and the source mainly addresses the subject. To visualize these kinds of processes, imagine that you are connected to a newswire, such as AFP for example. The language used is therefore French. In these dispatches, we will try to select the dispatches that interest the Foreign Minister. We can then develop a set of rules (names of countries, words of action, negation, dictionaries of words appropriate to the subject, adjectives, etc.). Each dispatch will be analyzed when it is received thanks to this “skill cartridge” (this is the name given to this set of rules) and then directed to the right service. There are different commercial systems based on this principle, the only problem is deciding how to select rules properly on the one hand, and on the other hand, changing them according to time, new events (a change of vocabulary) and of course, languages, as over time and depending on events new words may appear in a foreign language, even when looking at dispatches from a French agency. A good description of this technology is provided by [COU 05]. The authors present, in detail, the economic intelligence skill cartridge and the competitive intelligence skill cartridge. First, we start with a morpho-syntaxical analysis of the text to be analyzed, then extract information linked to the analysis of text documents. All dictionaries, rules, etc. are kept in a skill cartridge specific to the subject tackled.

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For example, the competitive intelligence skill cartridge makes it possible to show the following relationships: – who is merging with whom? – how much has been invested in this merger? – is this merger underway, or has it merely been announced? – what is a given firm’s turnover? – which businesses are investing in which sectors? – who is interested in buying up a given business? This same principle can be applied to languages other than French, for example Arabic [HUO 05] or other languages such as English, German, Italian, Portuguese, Russian, Swedish, etc. 5.5. Automatic summaries Since the amount of information is constantly increasing, we often find – even when using statistical methods – a substantial amount of information to read. In fact, analyses, lists, matrices, networks, etc. lead to significant regroupings, but in the end, the texts have to be read. To do this, searches have resulted in various systems that make relatively good summaries to help with reading. Here, we show one of the systems we think is effective: “Resoomer” [RES 18]. This free system, which can also be adapted to systems that charge, makes it possible to summarize texts in various languages. It can reveal the most significant parts of these summaries. The system can be installed on a computer, or can be used by copying and pasting. As an example, we have taken section 5.4 of this chapter and summarized it. The result is shown on Figure 5.26. The significant parts of the summary are highlighted in light red in the text indicated on Figure 5.27. Although they are not perfect, these summary-creating systems can increase productivity considerably, since they can be used to create hierarchies of information in the whole text in the form of summaries or the most important parts of the text.

Figure 5.26. Summary obtained by choosing reduction manually: here 50%

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Figure 5.27. The most important parts of the text highlighted. For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/dou/strategic2.zip

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5.6. Conclusion This chapter, with the help of examples, shows how we acquire a global (holistic) vision of a subject from a broad enquiry, by extracting from the body of information to be analyzed. This body is then divided into multiple parts depending on the user’s needs, and it is by combining and analyzing these different parts that we can go into more specific domains that were not visible at the outset. This makes it possible to research niche areas, to change the direction of our work, to discover possible newcomers in a domain, to develop collaborations, in brief to identify competitors, prevent surprise and to dominate a subject. Moreover, linking scientific information and patent information facilitates links between industry and research. It is in fact one of the best ways of creating public-private partnerships [LEY 98]. Although this approach is productive in developed countries, it is even more so in developing countries [DOU 03, DOU 15b, DOU 15c]. It really shows what can be done with little-used or untransformed natural resources, but it also makes it possible to focus competencies on specific “subjects of research” depending on the country’s needs. This approach plays a large part in validating research, not by trying to validate what already exists (this is useful and necessary), but above all by facilitating development based on knowledge acquired from research directed more toward local or national needs. It is thus centered in social responsibility in research. Finally, full text analysis (unstructured texts) is especially interesting, as it makes it possible to process a large number of texts “on the fly”, but we should not forget that the methodology of processing and analysis, even if it is perfectly adapted to the subject, will only be productive if high-quality texts (i.e. peer-reviewed, depending on the source, authors, etc.) are used. If not, it amounts to GIGO (garbage in, garbage out). 5.7. References [ASH 11] ASHEIM B.-T., BOSCHMA R., COOKE P., “Constructing regional advantage: Platform policies based on related variety and differentiated knowledge bases”, Regional Studies, vol. 45, no. 7, pp. 893–904, 2011. [BEC 13] BECONCINI P., BURDICK C., MCDONOUGH L., “China: Big Change To Utility Model, Design Patent Exams, In China”, Mondaq, 2013, available at: http://www.mondaq.com/x/279340/Patent/Big+Change+To+Utility+Model+Design +Patent Exams+In+China.

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[BNU 17] BNU, Consulter des thèses françaises en texte intégral, 2017, available at: http://www.bnu.fr/catalogues/theses/consulter-des-theses-francaises-en-texteintegral. [BON 18] BONDU J., Comment mieux profiter de l’Internet, avec les outils de l’intelligence économique ?, forthcoming, 2018. [BUS 17] BUSINESS DICTIONARY, “Cluster analysis”, 2017, available http://www.businessdictionary.com/definition/clusteranalysis.html.

at:

[CAR 17] CARROT2, 2017, available at: http://search.carrot2. org/stable/search. [CAS 17] CAS, “STN Database Summary Sheets”, 2017, available at: http://www.cas.org/products/stn/dbss. [CIW 16] CIWORLDWIDE, “Analyse de l’information brevet et création d’un savoir pour l’action (APA Automatic Patent Analysis)”, October 12, 2016, available at: http://s244543015.onlinehome.fr/ciworldwide/?p=1958. [CNI 19] CNIPA, website, 2019, available at: http://english.sipo.gov.cn/. [COU 05] COUPET P., BUSCHBECK B., SIX A. et al., “Le text mining multilingue : application au monde de l’intelligence économique”, Information Science and Decision Making (ISDM), no. 22, pp. 1–12, 2005, available at: http://isdm.univtln.fr/PDF/isdm22/isdm22_coupet.pdf. [DES 11] DESCHAMPS C., MOINET N., La boîte à outils de l’intelligence économique, Dunod, Paris, 2011. [DIA 17] DIALOG PROQUEST, 2017, available at: http://www.proquest.com/ products-services/ProQuest-Dialog.html. [DIR 18] DIRT, iBoogie, 2017, available at: https://dirt directory.org/resources/ iboogie. [DOU 03] DOU H., MANULLANG S.-D., Competitive Intelligence, Technology Watch and Regional Development, MUC Consulting Group, Jakarta, 2003. [DOU 09] DOU H., MANULLANG S.-D., DOU J.-M. JR, “Strategic Dependence of a Developing Country. Vision from Patents”, Third European Competitive Intelligence Symposium, Västerås, Sweden, June 11–12, 2009. [DOU 10] DOU H., “Innover dans la recherche publique en France : la responsabilité sociale de la recherche (RSR) est-elle mesurée ?”, Vie et Sciences Économiques, vol. 3, no. 185/186, pp. 148–167, 2010. [DOU 12] DOU H., DOU J.-M. JR, GETACHEW M.-A., Automatic Patent Analysis: Technological Strategic Dependence, Beijing ICTCI 2011 in Progress in Competitive Intelligence, Peking University Press, Beijing, 2012.

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[DOU 15a] DOU H., “L’information brevet vecteur de diffusion d’une culture scientifique et technologique”, Revue de Management et de Stratégie, no. 52, pp. 17–47, 2015. [DOU 15b] DOU H., HAUDEVILLE B., WOLFF D., “L’analyse de l’information brevet comme catalyseur de l’innovation et du développement des entreprises”, Vie et Sciences de l’Entreprise, no. 1, pp. 72–91, 2015. [DOU 15c] DOU H., MANULLANG S.-D., KISTER J. et al., “Automatic Patent Analysis Used to Improve Innovation and Development in Developing Countries”, British Journal of Applied Science & Technology, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 237–252, 2015, available at: http://www.sciencedomain.org/abstract/8053. [DOU 16a] DOU H., KISTER J., “Research and Development on Moringa Oleifera. Comparison between Academic Research and Patents”, World Patent Information, no. 47, pp. 21–33, 2016. [DOU 16b] DOU H., The diagonal of risks and innovation. Examples from APA and Medline, Éditions européennes universitaires, Sarrebruck, 2016. [DOU 16c] DOU H., KONÉ A., “L’innovation frugale dans les pays en développement et la nécessité d’une protection intellectuelle appropriée”, Mondes en développement, vol. 44, no. 173, pp. 29–45, 2016. [DOU 17] DOU H., Information Bits & Tips for Competitive Intelligence, Create Space Independent Publishing platform, 2017. [EPO 17a] EUROPEAN PATENT OFFICE, “Guidelines for Examination”, 2017, available at: https://www.epo.org/law-practice/legal-texts/html/guidelines/e/b_x_ 9_2_1.htm. [EPO 17b] EUROPEAN PATENT OFFICE, “Patent families”, 2017, available at: http://www.epo.org/searching-for-patents/helpful-resources/first-time-here/patentfamilies.html. [EPO 17c] EUROPEAN PATENT OFFICE, “Espacenet patent search”, 2017, available at: https://www.epo.org/searching-for-patents/technical/espacenet.html# tab-1. [FLA 14] FLAMERIE F., “Recherche bibliographique : fils RSS, Web of Science et outils spécialisés par discipline”, Workshop, Sorbonne Université, 2014, available at: http://www.bupmc.upmc.fr/fr/guides_recherche/doctorat_sciences/doctorat_atelier1. html. [HAR 16] HARZING A.-W., Publish or Perish, 2016, available at: https://harzing. com/resources/publish-or-perish. [HIR 07] HIRSH J.-E., “Hirsch’s h-index”, in J.-E. HIRSH, An index to quantify an individual’s scientific research output, 2007, available at: http://www. harzing.com/resources/publish-or-perish#whatfor.

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[HUO 05] HUOT C., COUPET P., “Le text mining sur la langue arabe : application au traitement des sources ouvertes”, Information Science and Decision Making (ISDM), vol. 22, pp. 1–10, 2005, available at: http://isdm.univ-tln.fr/PDF/ isdm22/isdm22_huot.pdf. [INI 18] INIST, “Base refdoc”, 2018, aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=16748892.

available

at:

http://cat.inist.fr/?

[INP 17] INPI (INSTITUT NATIONAL DE LA PROPRIÉTÉ INDUSTRIELLE), “Que se passet-il lorsqu’un brevet n’est pas exploité ?”, 2017, available at: https://www.inpi. fr/fr/faq/que-se-passe-t-il-lorsqu-un-brevet-n-est-pas-exploite. [JAP 13] JAPAN PATENT OFFICE, “Outline of FI/F-term”, 2013, available at: https://www.jpo.go.jp/torikumi_e/searchportal_e/pdf/classification/fi_f-term.pdf. [JEW 10] JEWICK P., “Utility model – An effective tool in global patent portfolio protection”, Intellectual Property Today, 2010, available at: https:// www.kilpatricktownsend.com/~/media/Files/articles/2010/IPToday_Jewik_Nov10. ashx. [KEY 17] KEY S., “97 Percent of All Patents Never Make Any Money”, All Business, 2017, available at: https://www.allbusiness.com/97-percent-of-allpatents-never-make-any-money-15258080-1.html. [KIN 17] KIND CODES, “‘Kind Codes’ Included on the USPTO Patent Documents”, USPTO, 2017, available at: https://www.uspto.gov/learning-and-resources/supportcenters/electronic-business-center/kind-codes-included-uspto-patent. [KOS 01] KOSTOFF R.-N., Systematic Acceleration of Radical Discovery and Innovation in Science and Technology, report, 2001, available at: http://www. dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a430720.pdf. [KOS 02] KOSTOFF R.-N., Stimulating Discovery, Report, 2017, available at: https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/938b/176a14eaf31602e5bbaa08aaa6051c7c1ff3.pdf. [LEY 98] LEYDESDORFF L., ETZKOWITZ H., “The Triple Helix as a model for innovation studies”, Science and Public Policy, vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 195–203, 1998. [LIX 07] LI X., CHEN H., HUANG Z. et al., “Patent citation network in nanotechnology (1976–2004)”, Journal of Nanoparticle Research, vol. 9, no. 3, pp. 337–352, 2007, available at: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/ s11051-006-9194-2. [MAR 97] MARGARET S., “Prolongation de la durée des brevets relatifs aux produits pharmaceutiques”, Direction de la Recherche Parlementaire, 1997, available at: http://publications.gc.ca/Collection-R/LoPBdP/MR/mr144-f.htm.

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[MAT 17a] MATHEO ANALYZER, 2017, available at: https://www.matheo-software. com/fr/matheo-analyzer/. [MAT 17b] MATHEO PATENT, 2017, available at: www.matheo-patent.com. [MAT 17c] MATHEO SOFTWARE, 2017, available at: http://www.matheo-software. com. [MED 17] MEDIAWIKI, “Extension: WikiMindMap”, 2017, available at: https:// www.mediawiki.org/wiki/Extension:WikiMindMap. [MIC 01] MICHEL J., BETTELS B., “Patent citation analysis. A closer look at the basic input data from patent research reports”, Scientometrics, vol. 51, no. 1, pp. 185–201, 2001. [MIC 17] MICHIGAN UNIVERSITY, “PubMed: Web of Science, or Google Scholar? A behind-the-scenes guide for life scientists”, 2017, available at: http://libguides.lib. msu.edu/pubmedvsgooglescholar. [NEW 17] NEWSMAP, 2017, available at: http://newsmap.jp/#/n/au/view/. [NIH 17] NIH, “MEDLINE®/PubMed® Resources Guide”, 2017, available at: https://www.nlm.nih.gov/bsd/pmresources.html. [NON 00] NONAKA I., TOYAMA R., KONNO N., “SECI, Ba and Leardership: a Unified Model of Dynamic Knowledge Creation”, Long Range planning, vol. 33, no. 1, pp. 5–34, 2000. [PAT 17] PATENT PULSE, 2017, available at: www.patent-pulse.com. [PAT 17a] PATENTSCOPE, 2017, available at: https://www.wipo.int/patentscope/en/. [POR 07] PORTER A.-L., NEWMAN C.-N., “Patent profiling for Competitive Advantage”, in MOED H.F. (ed.), Handbook of Quantitative Science and Technology Research, Springer, Paris, pp. 586–612, 2007. [PRO 17] PROSPICEIS, “Que signifient les lettres FR, WO, DE, A1, B1, U1, C1... dans le numéro de publication d’un brevet ?”, 2017, available at: http:// prospiceis.free.fr/index.php?2010/05/18/146-que-signifient-les-lettres-fr-wo-de-a1b1-u1-c1-dans-le-numero-de-publication-d-un-brevet. [PUR 01] PURVIS R.-L., SAMBAMURTHY V., ZMUD R.-W., “The assimilation of knowledge platforms in organizations: An empirical investigation”, Organization Science, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 117–135, 2001. [RES 17] RESNICK J., “The billion dollar Mistake”, Whitepaper, Clarivate, 2017.

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[RES 18] RESOOMER, 2018, available at: www.resoomer.com. [ROS 93] ROSTAING H., Veille Technologique et Bibliométrie. Concepts, Outils, Applications, PhD thesis, Université de droit et des sciences d’Aix-Marseille, 1993, available at: http://quoniam.info/competitive-intelligence/PDF/PhDs_ Guidance/PhD_Herve_Rostaing.pdf. [ROS 96] ROSTAING H., La bibliométrie et ses techniques, Sciences de la Société, Centre de Recherche Rétrospective de Marseille, 1996, available at: http://www. master-vti.fr/web/IMG/pdf/La_bibliometrie_et_ses_techniques.pdf. [SEF 17] SEFSAFI M., “0.1 % seulement des brevets délivrés annuellement sont réellement exploités”, Presse dz, 2017. [STA 10] STAMBRIDGE B., “Chinese utility Models. A lesser-known IP Strategy”, Industry Insight, 2010, available at: http://www.iam-media.com/Magazine/ Issue/42/Industryinsight/Chinese-utility-models-a-lesser-known-IP-strategy. [TAG 18] TAGCROWD, 2018, available at: http://tagcrowd.com/. [UNI 17] UNITED STATE PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, 2017, available at: https://www.uspto.gov/web/patents/classification/selectbynum.htm. [WAY 94] WAYNE M.-H., “Thinking and Planning for the 21st century: A holistic approach for thinking and planning”, 1994, available at: https://fas.org/irp/ doddir/army/usfk_j2/think.htm. [WES 17] WEST F.J., ALLISON HOPPERT B., “Extending the Life of a Patent in the United States”, 2017, available at: http://www.oblon.com/content/uploads/2015/ 04/1251.pdf. [WIK 18a] WIKIPEDIA, “Web of Science”, 2018, available at: https://fr.wikipedia. org/wiki/Web_of_Science. [WIK 18b] WIKIPEDIA, “Wiki”, 2018, available at: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Wiki. [WIK 18c] WIKIPEDIA, “Moringa oleifera”, 2018, available at: https://en.wikipedia. org/wiki/Moringa_oleifera. [WIK 18d] WIKIPEDIA, “CNKI”, 2018, available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ CNKI. [WIK 18e] WIKIPEDIA, “Cooperative Patent Classification”, 2018, available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperative_Patent_Classification.

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[WIK 18f] WIKIPEDIA, “La fouille de textes”, 2018, available at: https://fr. wikipedia.org/wiki/Fouille_de_textes. [WIP 17] WIPO, 2017, available at: http://www.wipo.int/portal/fr/. [WIP 17a] WIPO, “WIPO International Classifications”, 2017, available at: http:// www.wipo.int/classifications/en/.

6 Social Networks

For a decade, social networks have been unavoidable, whatever one’s opinion on the quality of the information they convey. Designed from the outset as a means of communication, of information sharing and a tool for creating communities who wish to converse and create, they have partly deviated from their original aim. In fact, they play a role in the ever-faster diffusion of information and because of this, they are capable of making millions of people aware of specific information in a very short space of time. We are therefore seeing what individuals, institutions, businesses and States with ill-intent can do with these “communication tools”. These networks are therefore playing a full role in influence operations, which is to say they aim – especially via “viral marketing” – to create the desired reaction in exposed individuals, without them being aware of the “manipulation” underway. Moreover, more and more “socialbots” are able to penetrate social networks and steal the identities of some individuals and, because of this, to provide social networks with “traffic”, well-intentioned or not, that is no longer in touch with reality. Many studies have shown that on Twitter, 5% of user accounts are fake and 20% of traffic is generated by robots. Fine analyses carried out in these conditions often lead to confusion. We can also ask, considering the rapid development of socialbots as well as their sophistication, if this will corrupt social networks and cause their usefulness to deteriorate in the near future [RTS 16]. A socialbot [TEC 17] is a piece of software (a robot) that controls a social media account. This is a computerized system that will respond according to

Strategic Intelligence for the Future 2: A New Information Function Approach, First Edition. Henri Dou, Alain Juillet and Philippe Clerc. © ISTE Ltd 2019. Published by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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the type of network, but also according to the typology of user responses (for example on Twitter, it is easy to produce responses, as expression using 280 characters remains basic). Compared to a regular bot, the socialbot will share its responses by posing as a real user, which gives it more persuasion power. There is controversy over socialbots since they may not be ethical; they are not real people even though social networks are designed for people. Since the socialbot tends to pass for a human being, they are only one step away from using identity theft to appear even more convincing. This is one of the main problems with socialbots, as they could, considering the importance of social network users, influence events by carrying out coordinated attacks on the best nodes (or influential individuals) sharing links. We have therefore written this chapter considering this context, revealing the levers, restrictions and facilities but also threats generated by these systems. We will present the different types of network, followed by some significant work carried out in the domain of “manipulating” and analyzing these networks, showing the positive and negative points. 6.1. Different types of social networks There are hundreds of social networks. Some are used more in Europe, in the United States or Asia. Exchanges on these networks range from simple tweets to the exchange of emails, photos, videos, the sharing of documents, opinions, etc. Relatively closed communities can form or simple exchanges of information can take place. It is however essential that even those who do not take part in these exchanges are aware of the number of individuals who do and of the increasing number of ever more varied networks accessible for free in most cases. Finally, social networks have a memory, often a very long memory, and what is shared on them will follow you, even several years later. There are many articles discussing the main social networks [KAL 17, MAI 16, MEH 15, MIL 15, MOR 17]. Here is a typology of accessible networks:

Social Networks

Typology

Examples of networks

Social Media Sites

Facebook, QQ, Skype, Twitter

Photo-sharing Networks

Snapfish, Flickr, Pinterest

Lifestyle Networks

Last.fun, Cross.tv, Car2

Travel Networks

Couchsurfing, TravBuddy

Mobile Networks

Cellfun, Itsmy

Video Networks

YouTube, Vine, Youku

Reunion Networks

Classmate, Mylife

Business Networks

LinkedIn, Viadeo, Xing

Pre-teen and Young Adult Networks

Weeworld, Twenti

Blogging Networks

Xanga, Plurk, Livejournal

International Social Networks

Mixi, Netlog, Renren

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Table 6.1. Typology of social networks

These networks have an impressive number of active accounts and to give a simple idea of the number of users, we refer the reader to the table on this subject indicated on Wikipedia [WIK 18]. In this table, we see that some sites have nearly two billion registered users and more than one billion active accounts. The list here is far from being complete and one of the things a business should consider when using these networks is warning employees about the dangers inherent in posting documents relating to their jobs or to the business. They should not attempt to control which networks are used by its employees, since this is next to impossible.

Figure 6.1. List of virtual communities with more than 100 million users [WIK 19]. For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/dou/strategic2.zip

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6.2. General remarks on social networks One important thing to bear permanently in mind is that social networks give a false impression of security and respect for privacy. On the one hand, each document you place on these networks remains undestroyed, even if you press the “delete” button. On the other hand, all social networks have administrators (sysadmin) who can permanently see what is posted and exchanged. Do not think that this only happens in the United States. There may be private companies or mafia groups doing this. It is therefore necessary to be very careful when you “post” documents or exchange messages or answer questions, even from your friends, since as we have seen above, their identity may be stolen. Although these recommendations are good for businesses, they are also valuable for individuals, all the more so as from answer to answer and question to question, you can easily be led to say certain things, to reveal certain documents that could harm you not only in the moment, but for years to come. And do not forget either never to use computers and networks accessible from your work station for private activities even if you have permission to do so under some conditions. Also, pay attention to facilities for accessing networks offered to you restaurants, hotels, airports and stations; do not say anything via messaging that you would wish to confine to a private conversation. Similarly, do not post photographs that could turn out to be compromising. If you have to send documents, they should often be anonymized as far as names and numbers such as pricing suggestions, quotations, etc. are concerned. 6.2.1. Why use social networks in a business? The development of company social networks [ENL 13] has happened over the past 10 years. The development of these networks was motivated mainly by the fact that human resources saw them as a means of creating cohesion in the business, a feeling of freedom and well-being favorable to its smooth running. Then, “marketers” saw the opportunity via these same networks to promote certain products, make the arguments needed to promote them part of a mindset so that promotion moves outward from the business’ circle of employees:

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“Internal networks (SelectMinds, Leverage Software, etc.) reserved for employees began to appear in large businesses such as Dassault and France Télécom.” Various discussion take place on these networks, some about various activities, but others more centered on problems linked to the life of the business. We thus see the appearance in these networks of individuals who have the most connections, those who seem to be leaders in this space and who are not necessarily those who direct the business or are responsible on the ground. It is in this way that a sort of semi-virtual dualism is created between the actual business and the virtual business present in the network. In this space, it should not be thought that all is for the best, as frustrations and criticisms can be expressed, decompartmentalizing problems and making them visible to the outside world. This will give rise to an interpenetration between the business’ “public sphere” and the private sphere, which will not occur without creating problems and can lead to the business losing its image in the outside world. The question of interpenetration between public networks (such as Facebook) and private networks arises, which, again, will pose problems, namely of information being leaked or the private network being penetrated by third parties. It will therefore be necessary to put in place a security policy, but also an information policy for personnel, in order to avoid this [PER 14]. 6.2.2. The risks of social networks in a business It is necessary for a business to protect itself from the risks inherent to social networks. Not only should staff be aware of general risks, but it is also necessary to put in place a policy on use or a charter of good conduct for employees regarding networks. The risks run are relatively well-known: – the business’ e-reputation (it is necessary to check regularly what is being said about the business on networks), not only in blogs or discussion forums, but also by watching videos that might involve it. We only have to think of videos circulating about abattoirs to see the “damage” they may do to a business’ image. There are a great many instances of “harmful” videos, videos in fact posted to cause harm, or posted “for a laugh” without considering the harm they can cause; the leaking of information, ranging from hacking, to voluntary or involuntary leaks, to copying by third parties

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(photos of prototypes), expertise, etc. It should not be forgotten that fake profiles can be created and it must be ensured that a technical request made by a colleague really does come from them (one should telephone them before answering); – cybercrime in general. Fake requests coming from banks, updating one’s bank details, phishing, comments from fake profiles, etc. In the context of cybercrime, we distinguish two main levels [AUS 05, CAS 17]: Type 1 cybercrime: this is an occasional event, such as placing a Trojan (a type of malicious software) on your computer that installs a piece of software that will follow the strokes on your keyboard, this can happen for example by clicking on a link sent to you in an e-mail. This also involves security failures in a software making it possible to Type 2 cybercrime: this involves continuous interaction with the target. Making contact on a discussion forum for example install viruses, Trojans, “rootkits”, etc., for purposes such as bank fraud, etc.; then little by little, creating a link with the person contacted to carry out a wrongful act (sending money or secret technical information, etc.). Also in this category are actions carried out on forums by terrorist groups, etc. 6.3. The dangers of social networks One of the most significant dangers in the domain of social networks, whether they are public or private, is linked to “guided socialbots” [ELY 16]: socialbots that will be directed to a specific network in an organization to penetrate it and obtain information (for example by creating fictitious identities or by stealing existing identities). The development of these guided socialbots also results from the already indicated fact that users of social networks are rarely aware of the total loss of privacy on these networks [FIR 14, SOU 17]. Because of this, users share personal data or information linked to the life of their business which is often sensitive and can lead to a considerable increase in security risks from attacks on the network, guided socialbots, identity theft, sexual threats, etc. [DES 14, LIN 09, WOL 10]. We say that these aspects arise mainly from personal security, but the security of the business may also be broadly involved. Similarly, the spreading of rumors or negative comments can create certain damage without detecting the source of these rumors or comments. Finally, beyond the business, when social networks involve state organizations, such as the army or political parties for example, this can lead to the development of threats affecting the security of

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the country, mainly with the aid of collecting targeted information and the development of rumors. What is very interesting in the work of Aviad Elyashar [ELY 16], is that he has shown using two social networks (Facebook and Xing: “as we learned from executing our suggested algorithm most of our socialbots were able to infiltrate specific employees on both Facebook and Xing”) that it was perfectly possible to infiltrate specific employees, who tend always to accept and answer requests from strangers as well as from friends. The authors have also shown that in the space of five to six days, they were able to contact more than fifty users using socialbots, which are very easy to create. When accepting a friend request, it is therefore important to know what the potential risks are and to pay attention to the questions asked and the answers provided. For example, out of a total of 219 friend requests sent to 219 users of a network X, 88 users accepted the request and a 131 rejected it. These 219 users moreover included 10 targeted users (targeted for level of competence, access to information, ability to answer easily, etc.) and of these, four answered positively, which is a total of 40%. This illustrates the risks well and poses a question linked to the users of business social networks: should work experience students have access? 6.4. Minimizing negative influence on social networks We have seen that social networks are a favorable place for developing real information, but also false information. Although the majority of authors are interested in the development of influence on networks (whether positive or negative), some studies currently focus on minimizing negative influence involving an individual, institution, business, political party, etc. Different authors have shown that malicious information is generally spread more quickly than positive information [BAU 01, CHE 10] and that by analyzing receiver profiles, an individual tends to more firmly believe information coming from several of their “friends”. It is therefore fundamental, in a social network, to decide the nodes (individuals for example) that will exercise the greatest influence in order, in the process of minimization, to block them using one of the three following processes [CHA 16]: – an approach based on blocking nodes: a node is represented by an individual who spreads (information in the present case). Blocking this node will lead to a drop in the frequency with which it is spread;

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– an approach based on blocking links: a link is formed by the transmission of information from one node to another. The problem is recognizing the minimal number of links needed to be effective. Blocking links will generally lead to a drop in diffusion frequency; – an approach based on competitive influence [KAU 15]: the nodes most active in diffusion are marked, and diffusion of counter-propaganda or publicity, etc. from these nodes is implemented. In the work presented by Zakia Challal [CHA 16], more technical data are presented; they demonstrate that this direction is feasible at IT level. They therefore merit being studied in more detail. The example developed by Chen Wei et al. is interesting, as it shows how influence or counterinfluence actions can be carried out without illegally penetrating the network’s general graph: “[S]ocial networks are owned by third parties like Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook, etc. The proprietary of the social graph is kept secret for privacy as well as company benefits. The owner of the social network is called the “host” and companies trying to run the viral campaigns are called the “clients” for the hosts. Clients cannot access the social network directly and hence they cannot choose seeds for their campaign by themselves. Clients would need the host’s permission and privilege to run. Motivated by this observation, we propose and study the naive problem of competitive viral marketing from the host’s perspective. In this study, we consider a business model with the host offering viral marketing as a paid service to its clients. The clients will hence be able to run the campaigns by specifying the seed budget, i.e. the number of seeds desired. The host of the social network controls the seed selection and allocation to companies.” [KAU 15] In this example, the authors consider two types of approach, one where the nodes alone are considered and the other where the edges (links between nodes) have positive or negative influence.

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6.5. An example of an international social network: the Confucius Institute This example makes the link between soft power [NYE 04] or influence, which was developed in detail in a previous chapter, and the use of networks and communication facilities, making is possible to unite communities and spread various information on an international scale in quasi-real time. Thus, China [MIK 15], in order to develop influence operations at global level, developed the Confucius Institutes [KOU 17] as well as Chinese lessons provided by Chinese educational institutions. 6.5.1. Public diplomacy and Confucius Institutes This creation of influence at international level between the domain of public diplomacy is used by China; the Confucius Institutes form part of this [LU 15]. Generally, we distinguish two aspects in this diplomatic approach, one is classical, which is the diffusion of targeted information to a very broad public: this is the top down system; the other, which is more “modern” (new public diplomacy) relies mainly on developing networks [HOC 05]. More precisely, public diplomacy mainly involves five elements [CUL 08, FLE 04]: – listening: collecting information on international opinion, especially using secret methods, such as espionage and information gathering; – advocacy: promoting policies, ideas or specific interests to foreign publics, generally via a country’s own ambassadors in other countries; – cultural diplomacy: promoting a country’s cultural resources abroad and/or facilitating cultural transmission abroad; – diplomatic exchange: promoting the reciprocal exchange of individuals between nations, e.g. reciprocal student exchanges; – international broadcasting: the use of radio, television, broadcasting and internet communication to engage with foreign publics. In the context of networks, we are particularly interested in the last three points.

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6.5.2. Structuring the network of Confucius Institutes If we look globally at the structure of the network, it is clear that the Confucius Institutes have grown very quickly [HAR 14]. The number of institutes as well the number of Chinese classes was distributed across the world in 2013 according to the following table [HAR 14]. Regions

Confucius Institutes

Classes

Europe

149

153

The Americas

144

384

Asia

93

50

Africa

37

10

Oceania

17

49

Table 6.2. Global distribution of Confucius Institutes and Confucius classes

These bodies are all linked to Hanban University [HAN 14] which forms the center of the network (the headquarters). After that, the network becomes more complicated since all Confucius Institutes are linked to one another, including both the institutes themselves and also the Chinese classes linked to partner Chinese universities. Finally, the network’s complexity extends fully with the participation in the network of individuals present or engaged in the Confucius Institutes. Thus, the whole creates a relational structure through which a dynamic will emerge [ZAH 14] which is key to developing the Confucius Institute network. The aim is, particularly via online activities, to stimulate activities that will enable sustainable collaborations. Understanding this relational dynamic is a key point. In many cases and among others with the system developed by the USA we are dealing with a system of mass distribution, which is based solely on the receptivity of individuals but not on their interactivity. It is therefore necessary for activity

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promoters to model and control their messages constantly to maintain a certain initiative. In the case of the Chinese approach, the situation is different. We adopt a network communication system that will create a dynamic, making it possible to develop from the three main dimensions: – the structure of the network that facilitates contacts and information exchanges; – the synergy that will develop from the previous exchanges; – the co-creation developed by members of the network especially by presenting experience, teaching methods, results obtained, etc. This cocreation can of course go further. This dynamic thus transforms users who are passive at the start into “stakeholders” and thus dynamic actors, which means that the network’s traction develops by itself from the exchanges, co-creation and narrative stories developed by members of the network. It is in this way that through its culture, China is developing a soft power differential [WAN 10]. Therefore, proof of the network’s vitality lies not only in the number of Confucius Institutes, but the links these various institutes develop, whether it is in the “Chinese general headquarters”, (the University of Hanban), or links developed between institutes within a single country or between countries. The social network of Confucius Institutes can be visualized as follows: – first layer: all the Confucius Institutes in universities across the whole world, Chinese partner universities who act as hosts and the online portal for the Confucius Institutes are all linked to the University of Hanban (the headquarters); – the second layer is formed of the link between the Confucius Institutes in foreign host universities and Chinese partner universities. The network is becoming multidirectional; – the third layer is formed of the link between the Confucius Institutes in foreign host universities in the region; – the fourth layer is formed of the link between a Chinese partner university and multiple foreign universities hosting Confucius Institutes; – the fifth layer is formed of the link between Confucius Institutes and foreign host universities plus the link with Chinese partner universities.

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If we add to this (institutional) network the different links that may be created (during meetings, conferences, involving the financing of institutes, projects, etc.) between different individuals physically belonging to the network, considerable robustness is achieved within the system. It is this whole that makes it possible to co-create projects, promote initiatives and maintain the network’s growth via exogenous development. We therefore understand how the online part takes on considerable importance since it decreases distances, “shortens” timespans, facilitates contacts and creates greater cohesion.

6.6. Examples of software enabling analysis of social networks We present two types of analyses. One, the analysis of Twitter, is specific to a network while the other involves knowledge of a tweet propagating for example in social networks. So, we have one specific approach and one more general approach.

6.6.1. Analyzing tweets We can currently access archives [CHA 14, CUS 13] of our tweets within the parameters of our Twitter account by clicking on the “request your archive” tab and access them as a file. From this, different analyses can be made. Here, we present an extract of a tutorial created in the framework of the Pegasus project that, in a very detailed article, explains various results as well as ways of obtaining them [ROC 13]. The following sample is used by the author: “The sample is formed of 17,744 tweets (as of March 1st, 2013, 00:15). Distributed over a period of 1,683 days, this makes on average around 10.5 tweets per day.” In Figures 12.2, 12.3 and 12.4 we show some results of analyses obtained by the author. These analyses, if they represent all an individual’s tweets, are also important, as they allow you to know what a third party can learn from analyzing your tweets.

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Figure 6.2. Number of users retweeted [ROC 13]

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Figure 6.3. Word cloud representation of hashtags used [ROC 13]

6.6.2. Sentiment mining or opinion mining “Accounting analysis” of tweets or emails is helpful, but it has a limit, as it does not consider “sentiments” present in the content. It is in this context that sentiment analysis was developed. This analysis is based mainly on three aspects: positive, negative and neutral (i.e. positive mixed with negative). To carry out these analyses, we generally have recourse to dictionaries of words or expressions, verbs and adjectives. Depending on the number of times these terms occur in a text (or in a set of phrases contained in a text), we can give this text or these phrases a score. But this technique has a limit, as the text needs to be processed before analysis, to be “lemmatized”, that is for example all verbs need to be put into the infinitive, nouns into the singular, etc. then we must consider negations, etc. Generally, to do this, we use dictionaries which are created both manually and automatically using usual terms, expressions, etc.

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Figure 6.4. Names of URL domains cited [ROC 13]

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This is difficult, on the one hand because the language (French, English etc.) must be considered, but also because in social networks spelling mistakes, abbreviations, acronyms (for example “lol” = laughing out loud) often appear. Here are some examples of dictionaries: General Inquirer [GEN 17], WordNet-Affect [STR 04], SentiWordNet [ESU 06], all three English-language and ANT USD [WAN 16] for Chinese. In their book Opinion Mining and Sentiment Analysis, Dominique Boullier and Audrey Lohard [BOU 12a] present the theoretical and practical aspects of these different types of analyses. In particular, they underline the role of experts in the domain, as a purely automated processing could contain multiple errors or may not be sufficiently refined [BOU 12b]. In this regard, we can mention: “Sentiment analysis (sometimes called opinion mining) is the part of text mining that tries to define opinions, sentiments and attitudes present in a text or set of texts. Essentially developed since the 2000s, it is used especially in marketing to analyze for example commentaries made by internet users or evaluations and tests by bloggers or even social networks: much of the literature on this subject involves tweets, for example. But it can also be used to test public opinion on a subject, to seek to characterize social relationships in forums or even to check if Wikipedia is really a neutral medium. Sentiment analysis requires much more understanding of the language than text analysis and classification by subject. In fact, although the simplest algorithms consider only the statistical frequencies with which words appear, this generally proves to be insufficient to determine dominant opinion in a document, especially when the content is short, such as messages in a forum or tweets.” [EDU 15] On a practical level, there are various offers on the market, making it possible to class data as positive, negative or neutral, mostly involving analysis of tweets.

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6.6.3. A more general approach: analyzing tweets in social networks Here, we show a result obtained using Talkwalker [RIC 16]. In a campaign linked to #BacktotheFuture, Nike decided to create self-adhesive boots and send them to Michael J. Fox. It does not need stating that this initiative created a frenzy among Internet users. In Figure 6.5, we can therefore show a virality map of Talkwalker.

Figure 6.5. Representation of the way in which the initial tweet (on the left) has “travelled” on social media [RIC 16]. For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/dou/strategic2.zip

We can thus, from this map, analyze the overall reach of the initial tweet. This is detailed in Figure 6.6 which shows how a Japanese journal contributed to diffusing the initial tweet in Japan.

Figure 6.6. Information concerning the initial tweet and its redistribution [RIC 16]. For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/dou/strategic2.zip

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6.7. Beyond socialbots and other IT systems, human action: fake news We have seen the influence of computerized systems such as socialbots, identity theft, etc. These activities, which are fact initiated without continuous human action, are important and should be considered. But, on social networks and considering the importance of users, “classic” human action can be developed without restraint. It is in this way that information that is true but also information that is false will circulate on social networks: this is fake news. This false information can be placed on networks either intentionally for political or commercial ends or indeed simply as a game by real users. As the majority of this information will not directly “impact” an individual or business, the authors of this fake information cannot be prosecuted and so will be able to continue with their actions. Even if counter-information campaigns are instigated, it has been proven that even so, 30% of individuals who receive this fake information will remain receptive to it. 6.7.1. The fake news dynamic In an article published in Futuribles [SOU 17], Walter Quattrociocchi [QUA 17a] suggests three factors to explain the dynamic of fake news. First, comes functional illiteracy, that is the inability to understand a text properly. According to the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), this affects many individuals between the ages of 16 and 65 in France and Italy. Then, the cognitive bias known as “confirmation bias” plays a major role, as each person tends to favor information that confirms their opinions or worldview. Finally, the Internet itself should be questioned since content is sent and received without an intermediary, such that no authority controls the veracity or basis of what is put online. This situation is particularly damaging, as there are no “regulators” on social networks and so no active controls on the information made available to users. We therefore return to a sort of educational vaccination that should serve as an antidote to fake news. But this is affected by users’ educational levels and especially their ability to practice critical thinking; this is explained in Chapter 2 of this book. It is in this way that very strange ideas have been permitted by a proportion of users such as: “the Americans never went to the moon, the whole thing was filmed in a studio”, “September 11th was caused by a succession of explosions inside the Twin Towers in New York”, “Europe

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is the cause of redundancies taking place in French businesses”, “spinach provides the body with more iron than any other food”, etc. We must however emphasize recent action such as that taken by France Culture in its own broadcasts [BRO 13, BRO 17]. You can access a podcast of these interviews and take a more critical look at information recounted on this network. 6.7.2. Beyond publishing online Fake news and rumors pose a problem that goes beyond publishing information online: – it is the speed with which it spreads, and so its retransmission that, in a way, give it the appearance of truth: “everyone is talking about it”. It is in this way that people influence one another; – the use of data on social networks produces statistics that appear to validate information. However, after analysis, this information really includes a great deal of false information, thus falsifying results that were previously considered true. In this way, fake news will influence individual opinions and significantly so, since for example in politics, many election results are separated by only a few percentage points. Since everyone can express themselves freely on social networks, this phenomenon is far from diminishing, but will be amplified by different actors, whether in politics, economics or in mafia activity. Walter Quattrociocchi has therefore indicated: “For these reasons, we are witnessing a real mass phenomenon involving misinformation (partial or garbled information) or disinformation. Moreover, in 2013, the world economic forum, an independent international foundation that debates the most urgent problems on the planet, cited the mass diffusion of fake information as one of the gravest threats our society is facing.” [QUA 17b] The Internet therefore acts as a resonator and will amplify rumors not only when they propagate but also, and this is more serious, by reinforcing those aspects of them that are true. Trials have been undertaken to provide some decoding keys making it possible to verify conspiracy theories

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circulating on social networks. The French newspaper Le Monde [DEC 17] for example presents a step consisting of verifying the following points: “One group is always pulling the strings; detail is presented as absolute proof; coincidences that become proof; the absence of a reliable source becomes an additional argument; conspiratorial rhetoric does not allow questioning: sometimes it is not possible to explain everything in the wake of an event; take care not to see conspirators everywhere.” We are not really in the domain of actual lies, but the presentation of real events from a particular angle. So, the best barrier against accepting false news still remains education, as well as the practical use of each person’s ability to know and analyze this information to put it into critical perspective, either alone or even better, as part of a group. 6.8. You love, you “like”, you click, you evaluate, but beware of “click farms” Since social networks were created, sharing, “liking” to show your agreement with a tweet, choosing particular applications depending on the number of clicks they generate, has been a reality. This system has been imposed and many individuals are receptive to it, apply reason and make choices according to it. An application for a smartphone for example will be chosen from a list considering its position, generated in fact by the number of clicks it has, etc. This practice has spread and is becoming a commercial challenge. We are seeing the emergence of a new practice, a real economic war spreading across all countries. This re-thinking by Antonio Casilli [CAS 10] has given rise to a debate showing how fake news and click farms responsible for disinformation are coming to form a global market [ROO 17]. From its origins in propaganda, “word-of-mouth”, myths and plots, we now have “alternative facts”, the use of bots and a vast market of likes and fake clicks. 6.8.1. Calling Facebook into question? As Casilli underlines, the functioning of Facebook may pose a question. For example:

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“The restriction of the organic reach of messages on Facebook is a process initiated by the platform to prompt its users to move towards a model where they pay to share their posts. Publications that are not sponsored are naturally limited to your own community: to have a more satisfactory reach rate, one must spend money [...] Political parties understand this well.” 6.8.2. Click farms Click farms were created in this context. These are varied organizations that, for a fee, will increase the number of clicks from “followers”, etc. Recently, several of these have been discovered by the police. Tens of thousands of telephones, or indeed more, are available on racks linked to computers that will automatically generate clicks. Moreover, to make this activity more realistic, hundreds of thousands of SIM cards are used to ensure those generating clicks are rotated. It was in this way that, according to the Bangkok Post, the Thai authorities discovered 474 telephones and 347,000 SIM cards, all destined to interact with the Chinese network WeChat [MIC 17]. In Russia, it is possible to buy clicks in supermarkets. One can therefore, for a few rubles buy “likes” from “followers”. This practice was filmed by a Russian journalist [BIG 17] in the Okhotny Ryad shopping center in the center of Moscow. One can boost one’s popularity on Instagram or Vkontakte (a Russian social network similar to Facebook) in this way and for 50 rubles (about €0.78 or US$0.89) you can have 100 likes on a photo or for 100 rubles (about €1.57 or US$1.78) a hundred “followers”. Information on these click farms is becoming more and more specific, for example a Russian journalist [EXC 17] shared a video on zerohedge.com that shows how a Chinese click farm was run and, according to the author, this click farm was formed of around 10,000 telephones. Other videos can also be accessed and show how this activity is organized, making it possible to add likes, followers and posts [20M 17a]. This practice, although it is not wellknown, has existed since 2014; Zero Hedge revealed at this time that million followers on Twitter cost US$ 600 [DUR 17] and that the US State department had bought 2 million Facebook fans. In 2017, BBC News [BBC 17, VOL 17], revealed the discovery of 350,000 fake Twitter accounts. Research carried out by different groups of researchers, especially at the University of South Carolina and Indiana University [VAR 17] showed that between 9 and 15% of Twitter account users are bots [NEW 17]. It is therefore clear that even though some socialbots are beneficial [FER 16] such as those spreading of news or

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scientific publications, the appearance of new, unethical practices poses a major problem. For example, Donald Trump’s Twitter account has 31 million followers, but it is estimated that of this number, half are fake [BIG 17]. A response may be organized around campaigns to delete fake accounts or to complain about individuals spreading false reviews in the case of Amazon, for example [20M 17b]. 6.8.3. A new type of fake news The recent development of voice morphing as well as the manipulation of video sequences of public figures are leading to the creation of very highquality fake videos. In a short time, considering technical advances, specialists will be able to modify a video, not to modify the image, but to modify the words uttered by the person: “The combination of voice-morphing technology with facemorphing technology will create convincing fake statements by public figures. Given the erosion of trust in the media and the rampant spread of hoaxes via social media, it will become even more important for news organizations to scrutinize content that looks and sounds like the real deal.” [SOL 17] 6.9. Big Data Many books and scientific publications have appeared in this domain and it is difficult, in a general presentation, to analyze them in depth [ERL 16]. Only to clarify, we will say that the production of information linked to queries in various search engines available on the market, e-mails, social networks, the online market via the Internet, the use of various applications on smartphones and now the ever-more significant emergence of connected objects, is becoming so substantial that it is impossible for the human brain to analyze it. All this information is generally known as the sixth continent that, virtually, gathers together a body of more or less interconnected data. From this immense and ever-growing stock of information, ever more numerous applications are being developed to analyze the information contained in this body statistically [DOU 14]. From these analyses arose the concepts of smart cities, co-operative healthcare systems (sharing data to obtain personalized care), managing

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electricity distribution via smart grids, water management, etc. Applicable to all domains, these masses of information, subject to ever-more effective analyses, are both an aspiration and a threat. In fact, this data may involve fairly technical domains (transport, the smart grid, etc.) which in itself do not pose a problem. However, it can interfere with our daily life since either without our knowledge or with our consent, we provide vast quantities of data about our behavior, which makes it possible to profile either groups of individuals or specifically us personally as consumers, but also as users of varied networks or as searchers on the Internet for example. It is in this way that more and more often, algorithms will “type” our behavior. At the limit, if this were only for commercial operations for instance, this would be a lesser evil. But the system is more malign, as it will tend to “push” the information we wish to hear or see toward us. A self-certainty is forming around many people that will smother any critical thinking since the only information provided us is information that fits our “view of things”. Although it has been noted that many people spend more time or at least as much time in front of their computer screens or mobile phones than in front of the television, we see that a single view of events and a single analysis of them is leading to self-deception, which will influence our behavior in various situations such as leadership [MEH 17], or decision-making for example [DIN 17]. This self-intoxication is often involuntary, albeit linked to one’s e-environment, and will often lead to extremes due to a lack of any critical sense [SMI 17]. But this may go further and become a sort of conditioning for human beings. For example: “[...] it will not stop there. Some software platforms are moving towards ‘persuasive computing’. In the future, by using sophisticated manipulation technologies, these platforms will be able to guide our actions, whether to run complex work processes or to generate free content for Internet platforms, from which businesses gain billions, or to cause ‘political’ developments, etc. The trend is shifting from programming computers to programming people.” [HEL 17] We therefore find ourselves at a crossroads where we can move either toward a digital democracy or can return to a form of feudal system if evermore powerful algorithms remain in the hands of only a few deciders. Every possible ethical question is therefore being asked about the protection of private information, etc. a widely debated topic whether in the domain of healthcare [BER 16] or in other domains [PUC 16].

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6.9.1. The development of Big Data analytics Big Data analytics now has fantastic research potential, but also potential for revenue. It is counted in billions of dollars and the impact of computer processing now accounts for 1.5% of global electricity consumption. We could continue in this vein with hundreds of figures on the production of emails, the exchange of SMSs, transactions on the net, etc. [RAI 16]. But that is not the question. Indeed, one of the problems posed by processing these gigantic data masses is the question of how pertinent the correlations that will be found are, and especially their relationship to one another [CAL 17]. Some authors maintain that “very large data bases are a major opportunity for science and data analysis is a new domain of investigation in IT. The effectiveness of analysis tools is used to support a philosophy that rejects scientific methods as they have developed through history. From this viewpoint, correlations discovered by computer should replace understanding and should guide prediction and action”. Consequently, it might not be necessary to give a scientific reason for phenomena observed, by suggesting say, causal relationships, since patterns from very large databases are enough: “with enough data, the figures speak for themselves.” But, the same author shows that “very large databases must contain arbitrary correlations. These only appear due to the size of the database and are not due to the nature of the data. They can be generated at random, in databases of sufficient size, which means that most correlations are false. Too much information tends to behave in the same way as very little information. Scientific methods can be enriched by ‘Big Data analytics’ used in immense databases, but this should not replace them”. This therefore means that we should be circumspect and that the role of data scientists should be complemented by individuals able to provide real meaning for the correlations obtained, through analysis and reflection. But for the citizen, it is also necessary for the sake of transparency, that the results of this processing can understood, intelligibly, by non-specialists and this is true for very varied sectors, among others in the domain of mapping [GAU 16]. 6.10. Conclusion Beyond the diverse analyses that are possible and will certainly be refined more and more, a general remark should be made on these social results. These are not certain, the main consequence is the fact that before spreading information of whatever kind: personal, work-related, photos,

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videos, comments, etc. we should ask ourselves: is this information likely to harm me, either now or later? Similarly, can this information harm third parties, can it lead to the disclosure of critical information, etc. This is good practice and should always be present. This is especially true when using Twitter where very often, tweets are made or answered reactively, that is while leaving our emotions to guide our answers. This can be very dangerous and you could present a potentially harmful image of yourself. For example, we can cite the series of tweets coming from diverse individuals after the 2016 election of the president of the United States, Donald Trump. In fact, the initial tweets made after the election results were known were often replaced by better thought-through tweets some hours or days later. A second observation should be made: on social networks, a large proportion of traffic is created by robots, and it is possible to create fictitious identities using socialbots to create a buzz or even to steal identities in order to ask questions or spread noise. If these aspects develop, we might fear the worst: the overall image taken from examining social networks would be largely false and so taking strategic decisions based on this would lead to the worst results. We should always bear in mind that human tendency is to consider news sent by one’s friends as true, or indeed by several of one’s friends at the same time, as true. We should therefore remain vigilant when we use these media. They are certainly very useful, but in some cases, precaution must be taken, especially when handling confidential data, or responding on controversial topics. Finally, some networks, especially public networks, are not as safe as private networks, although these are still capable of being penetrated by socialbots. Finally, there are now commercial services that analyze social media for you. It is certainly interesting to use these, but the results should be subject to critical analysis and evaluated before making important decisions based on the results. 6.11. References [20M 17a] 20 MINUTES, “Bienvenue dans une ‘ferme à clics’”, May 14, 2017, available at: http://www.20minutes.fr/high-tech/2067747-20170514-video-bienvenueferme-clics.

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[20M 17b] 20 MINUTES, “Amazon porte plainte contre 1 000 personnes accusées de publier de faux avis”, October 19, 2017, available at: http://www.20minutes.fr/web/ 1712867-20151019-amazon-porte-plainte-contre-1000-personnes-accusees-publierfaux-avis. [AUS 05] AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF CRIMINOLOGY, “High tech crime tools”, High Tech Crime Brief, no. 12, 2005, available at: https://aic.gov.au/publications/ htcb/htcb013 [BAU 01] BAUMEISTER R.-F., BRATSLAVSKY E., FINKENAUER C. et al., “Bad is stronger than good”, Review of General Psychology, vol. 5, no. 4, pp. 323–370, 2001, available at: http://www.seekingbalance.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/ 06/BadStrongerThanGood.pdf. [BBC 17] BBC NEWS, “Massive networks of false accounts found on Twitter”, January 12, 2017, available at: http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-38724082. [BER 16] BÉRANGER J., “La valeur éthique des Big Data en santé”, Les Cahiers du numérique, vol. 12, pp. 109–132, 2016. [BIG 17] BIG BROWSER, “Comment les Russes peuvent acheter des “likes” et des “followers” en supermarché”, Le Monde, June 13, 2017, available at: http://www.lemonde.fr/big-browser/article/2017/06/13/comment-les-russes-achetentdes-likes-et-des-followers-en-supermarche_5143705_4832693.html#wYWW5ZSTS CAYUMZa.99. [BOU 12a] BOULLIER D., LOHARD A., Opinion mining et Sentiment analysis: Méthodes et outils, OpenEdition Press, Louvain-la-Neuve, 2012, available at: http:// books.openedition.org/oep/214. [BOU 12b] BOULLIER D., LOHARD A., “Opinion mining. État de l’art et exemples d’application”, Lingway, 2012, available at: https://www.slideshare. net/amandinet/opinion-mining-etat-de-lart-et-exemples-dapplications. [BRO 13] BRONNER G., La démocratie des crédules, Presses universitaires de France, Paris, 2013. [BRO 17] BRONNER G., KLEIN E., “Ce qu’on sait, ce qu’on ne sait pas : du vrai et du faux sur Internet”, France Culture, October 28, 2017, available at: https:// www.franceculture.fr/emissions/la-conversation-scientifique/ce-quon-sait-ce-quonne-sait-pas-15-du-vrai-et-du-faux-sur-internet. [CAL 17] CALUDE C.-S., LONGO G., “The deluge of spurious correlations in Big Data”, Foundations of Science, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 595–612, 2017. [CAS 10] CASILLI A.-A., Les liaisons numériques : vers une nouvelle sociabilité ?, Le Seuil, Paris, 2010.

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[CHA 14] CHARNAY A., “Vous pouvez désormais retrouver tous vos tweets depuis 2006”, 01Net.com, 2014, available at: http://www.01net.com/astuces/vouspouvez-desormais-retrouver-tous-vos-tweets-depuis-2006-632867.html. [CHA 16] CHALALL Z., BOUKHALFA K., “Minimisation de l’influence négative dans les réseaux sociaux. État de l’art et ouvertures de recherche”, Congrès Inforsid − 34th edition, Grenoble, France, May 31–June 3, 2016, available at: https:// pdfs.semanticscholar.org/1ef5/5e41b95697fc7c57468c5118fb8fbf716a4b.pdf. [CHE 10] CHEN W., YUAN Y., ZHANG L., “Scalable influence maximization in social networks under the linear threshold model”, IEEE International Conference on DataMining, Sydney, Australia, January 20, 2010, available at: http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/5693962/. [CUL 08] CULL N., “Public diplomacy: taxonomies and histories”, The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, vol. 616, no. 1, pp. 31–54, 2008. [CUS 13] CUSTINDA, “Comment récupérer l’archive de tous ses tweets ?”, TWOG, October 2, 2013, available at: http://twog.fr/comment-recuperer-larchive-de-tousses-tweets/. [DEC 17] LES DÉCODEURS, “Décodex : comment reconnaître une théorie complotiste ?”, Le Monde, January 23, 2017, available at: http://www.lemonde. fr/les-decodeurs/article/2017/01/23/decodex-comment-reconnaitre-une-theoriecomplotiste_5067727_ 4355770.html. [DIG 17] DIGMANDARIN, “Confucius Institutes around the world − 2018”, 2018, available at: http://www.digmandarin.com/confucius-institutes-around-theworld.html. [DIN 17] DINGS R., “Social strategies in self-deception”, New Ideas in Psychology, vol. 47, pp. 16–23, 2017. [DOU 14] DOU H., “A new way to understand the “force field analysis” from Big Data analytics may be the future engine of the smart cities development”, Beijing Symposium on Competitive Intelligence, Peking University, 2014, available at: http://docplayer.net/11964003-A-new-way-to-understand-the-force-field-analysisfrom-big-data-analytics-may-be-the-future-engine-of-the-smart-cities-development. html. [DUR 17] DURDEN T., “A Russian went inside a chinese click-farm: this is what he found”, Zerohedge, May 11, 2017, available at: http://www.zerohedge. com/news/2017-05-11/look-inside-chinese-click-farm-fake-followers-fake-likesfake-reviews.

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[EDU 15] EDUTECH WIKI, “Analyse de sentiment en text mining”, 2015, available at: http://edutechwiki.unige.ch/fr/Analyse_de_sentiments_en_text_mining. [ELY 16] ELYASHER A., FIRE M., KAGAN D. et al., “Guided Socialbots: infiltrating the social networks of specific organizations’ employees”, AI Communications, vol. 29, pp. 87–106, 2016. [ENL 13] ENLART S., CHARBONNIER O., “Réseaux sociaux : opportunité ou menace pour les entreprises?”, Économie Matin, August 8, 2013, available at: http://www.economiematin.fr/news-reseaux-sociaux-chiffres-entreprises-utilisation. [ERL 16] ERL T., KHATTAK W., BUHLER P., Big Data Fundamentals: Concepts, Drivers & Techniques, Prentice Hall Press, Upper Saddle River, 2016. [ESU 06] ESULI A., SEBASTIANI F., “SentiWordNet: a publicly available lexical resource for opinion mining”, Proceedings of the 5th Conference on Language Resources and Evaluation – LREC’06, Genoa, Italy, May 24–26, 2006, available at: http://nmis.isti.cnr.it/sebastiani/Publications/LREC06.pdf. [EXC 17] EXCUISITE M., “Voici une ‘ferme à clics’ dans laquelle on élève du like et de l’avis positif certifiés 100 % non-bio”, Journal du geek, May 15, 2017, available at: http://www.journaldugeek.com/2017/05/15/voici-une-ferme-a-clicsdans-laquelle-on-eleve-du-like-et-de-lavis-positif-certifies-100-non-bio/. [FER 16] FERRARA E., VAROL O., MENCZER F. et al., “Detection of promoted social media campaigns”, Proceedings of the 10th International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media, Cologne, Germany, May 17–20, 2016, available at: https://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/ICWSM/ICWSM16/paper/view/13034/. [FIR 14] FIRE M., GOLDSCHMIDT R., ELOVICI Y., “Online social networks: threats and solutions”, IEEE Communications Surveys & Tutorials, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 2019–2036, 2014. [FLE 04] FLEW T., “Confucius Institutes and the network communication approach to public diplomacy”, The IAFOR Journal of Asian Studies, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 1–18, 2004. [GAU 16] GAUTREAU P., NOUCHER M., “Information géographique numérique et justice spatiale : les promesses du ‘partage’”, Justice spatiale-spatial justice, no. 10, 2016. [GEN 17] GENERAL INQUIRER, Website, 2017, available at: http://www.wjh.harvard. edu/~inquirer/. [HAN 14] HANBAN, Website, 2014, available at: http://english.hanban.org/.

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[HAR 14] HARTIG F., “The globalization of chinese soft power: Confucius Institutes in South Africa”, in R.-S ZAHARNA, J. HUBBERT, F. HARTIG, (eds), Confucius Institutes and the Globalization of China’s Soft Power, Figueroa Press, Los Angeles, pp. 47–66, 2014. [HEL 17] HELBING D., FREY B.-S., GIGERENZER G. et al., “Will democracy survive Big Data and artificial intelligence”, Scientific American, February 25, 2017, available at: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/will-democracy-survivebig-data-and-artificial-intelligence/. [HOC 05] HOCKING B., “Rethinking the “new” public diplomacy”, in J. MELISSEN (ed.), The New Public Diplomacy: Soft Power in International Relations, Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, 2005, available at: http:// culturaldiplomacy.org/academy/pdf/research/books/soft_power/The_New_Public_ Diplomacy.pdf. [KAL 17] KALLAS P., “Top 15 most popular social networking sites and apps”, Dreamgrow, February 26, 2017, available at: https://www.dreamgrow.com/top15-most-popular-social-networking-sites/. [KAU 15] KAUR H., Blocking negative influential node set in social networks: from host perspective, PhD thesis, Kennesaw State University, 2015, available at: https://digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1673&con text=etd. [KOU 17] KOUMA J.C.G., L’Implantation des Instituts Confucius dans le monde : un vecteur de puissance pour la Chine ?, Thesis, Université de Yaounde II-Soa, 2017, available at: http://www.memoireonline.com/09/11/4824/mLe-facteurculturel-dans-la-cooperation-sino-camerounaisele-cas-de-limplantation-de-linstitu12. html. [LIN 09] LINDAMOOD J., HEATHERLY R., KANTARCIOGLOU M. et al., “Interring private information using social data”, Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on World Wide Web, Madrid, Spain, April 20–24, 2009, available at: https://dl.acm. org/citation.cfm?id=1526709&picked= prox. [LU 15] LU S., Analysis of the network communication approach to public diplomacy: case study of the Confucius Institute of the Carleton University, Master’s thesis, University of Ottawa, 2015. [MAI 16] MAINA A., “20 popular social media sites right now”, Small Business Trends, May 4, 2016, available at: https://smallbiztrends.com/2016/05/popularsocial-media-sites.html. [MEH 15] MEHRA G., “105 leading social networks worldwide”, Practical Ecommerce, April 14, 2015, available at: http://www.practicalecommerce.com/ articles/86264-91-Leading-Social-Networks-Worldwide.

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[MEH 17] MEHMOOD A., “Leadership and self-deception: getting out of the box”, South Asian Journal of Management, vol. 24, no. 2, p. 201, 2017. [MIC 17] MICHELOTTI L., “Fermeture d’une gigantesque ‘ferme à clics’ en Thaïlande”, Le Monde, June 13, 2017, available at: http://www.lemonde.fr/pixels/article/2017/06/ 13/fermeture-d-une-gigantesque-ferme-a-clics-en-thailande_5143890_44089 96.html. [MIK 15] MIKHNEWICH S., “The sage helps the celestial empire: the Confucius Institute as an instrument of China’s soft power in Greater East Asia”, International Organisation Research Journal, vol. 10, pp. 61–85, 2015, available at: https://iorj.hse.ru/data/2015/12/07/1095012358/The%20Sage%20Helps%20the% 20Celestial%20Empire.pdf, 2015. [MIL 15] MILANOVIC R., “The world’s 21 most important social media sites and apps in 2015”, SocialMediaToday, April 13, 2015, available at: http://www. socialmediatoday.com/social-networks/2015-04-13/worlds-21-most-importantsocial-media-sites-and-apps-2015. [MOR 17] MOREAU É., “The top 25 social networking sites people are using”, LifeWire, April 30, 2017, available at: https://www.lifewire.com/top-socialnetworking-sites-people-are-using-3486554. [NEW 17] NEWBERG M., “As many as 48 million Twitter accounts aren’t people, says study”, CNBC, March 10, 2017, available at: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/10/ nearly-48-million-twitter-accounts-could-be-bots-says-study.html. [NYE 04] NYE J., Soft Power: the Means to Success in World Politics, PublicAffairs, New York, 2004. [PAT 14] PATTON D.U., HONG J.S., RANNEY M. et al., “Social media as a vector for youth violence: a review of the literature”, Computers in Human Behavior, no. 35, pp. 548–553, 2014. [PER 14] PERETTI J.-M., “Évaluer les risques liés aux réseaux sociaux d’entreprise”, Les Échos, September 17, 2014, available at: https://business.lesechos.fr/directionsressources-humaines/management/communication-interne/0203763763030-evaluerles-risques-lies-aux-reseaux-sociaux-d-entreprise-103335.php. [PUC 16] PUCHERAL P., RALLET A., ROCHELANDET F. et al., “La Privacy by design : une fausse bonne solution aux problèmes de protection des données personnelles soulevés par l’Open data et les objets connectés ?”, Legicom, vol. 1, pp. 89–99, 2016. [QUA 17a] QUATTROCIOCCHI W., “Désinformation sur les réseaux sociaux : ce que révèlent les statistiques”, Pour la science, no. 472, February 2017, available at: http://www.pourlascience.fr/ewb_pages/a/article-desinformation-sur-les-reseauxsociaux-ce-que-revelent-les-statistiques-38074.php.

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[QUA 17b] QUATTROCIOCCHI W., “Désinformation sur les réseaux sociaux : ce que révèlent les statistiques, Part. 1, les complotistes sont-ils crédules ?”, Pour la science, no. 472, February 2017, available at: https://cyrilc42blog. wordpress.com/2017/03/24/desinformation-sur-les-reseaux-sociaux-ce-que-revelentles-statistiques-par-walter-quattrociocchi-part-1-les-complotistes-sont-ils-credules-2/. [RAI 16] RAISSON V., 2038, Les futurs du monde, Robert Laffont, Paris, 2016. [RIC 16] RICHARD, “La carte de viralité. Découvrez comment les publications deviennent virales”, Talkwalker, October 27, 2016, available at: https://www.talkwalker. com/fr/blog/la-carte-de-viralite-decouvrez-comment-les-publications-deviennentvirales. [ROC 13] ROCHAT Y., “Tutoriel : exploiter ses données Twitter”, Pegasus Data Project, March 27, 2013, available at: https://pegasusdata.com/2013/03/27/tutorielexploiter-ses-donnees-twitter/. [ROO 17] ROOS G., “Fake news et ‘travailleurs du clic’ : comment la désinformation est devenue un marché mondial”, franceinfo, February 10, 2017, available at: http://www.meta-media.fr/2017/02/10/fake-news-et-travailleurs-du-clic-comment-ladesinformation-est-devenue-un-marche-mondial.html. [RTS 16] RTS INFO, “Les algorithmes de Facebook accusés de promouvoir des fausses nouvelles”, October 13, 2016, available at: https://www.rts.ch/info/sciences-tech/ reperages-web/8087792-les-algorithmes-de-facebook-accuses-de-promouvoir-desfausses-nouvelles.html. [SMI 17] SMITH M.-K., TRIVERS R., VON HIPPEL W., “Self-deception facilitates interpersonal persuasion”, Journal of Economic Psychology, no. 63, pp. 93–101, 2017. [SOL 17] SOLON O., “The future of fake news: don’t believe everything you read, see or hear”, The Guardian, July 26, 2017, available at: https://www.theguardian. com/technology/2017/jul/26/fake-news-obama-video-trump-face2face-doctoredcontent. [SOU 17] SOUPIZET J.-F., “Désinformation, ‘fake news’ et réseaux sociaux”, Futuribles, March 9, 2017, available at: https://www.futuribles.com/fr/article/ desinformation-fake-news-et-reseaux-sociaux/. [STR 04] STRAPPARAVA C., VALITUTTI A., “WordNetAffect: an affective extension of WordNet”, Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Language Resources and Evaluation (LREC 2004), Lisbon, Portugal, May 2004, available at: http://wndomains.fbk.eu/publications/lrec2004.pdf. [TEC 17] TECHOPEDIA, “Socialbot”, 2017, available at: https://www.techopedia.com/ definition/27811/socialbot.

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[VAR 17] VAROL O., FERRARA E., DAVIS A.-C. et al., “Online human-bot interactions: detection, estimation, and characterization”, Cornell University Library, March 27, 2017, available at: https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.03107. [VOL 17] VOLTIGEUR, “Dans l’enfer d’une ‘ferme à clics’ chinoise”, Les moutons enragés, May 17, 2017, available at: https://lesmoutonsenrages.fr/2017/05/17/danslenfer-dune-ferme-a-clics-chinoise/. [WAN 10] WANG J., Soft Power in China: Public Diplomacy Communication, Palgrave Macmillan, Basingstoke, 2010.

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[WAN 16] WANG S.-M., KU L.-W., ANTUSD: A large chinese sentiment dictionary, pp. 2697–2702, Academia Sinica, 2016, available at: http:// www.lrec-conf.org/proceedings/lrec2016/pdf/450_Paper.pdf. [WIK 18] WIKIPEDIA, “List of virtual communities with more than 100 million active users”, 2018, available at: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_virtual_ communities_with_more_than_100_million_active_users. [WOL 10] WOLAK J., FINKELHOR D., MITCHELL K.-J. et al., “Online ‘Predators’ and their victims”, Psychology of Violence, no. 1, pp. 13–15, 2010. [ZAH 14] ZAHARNA R.-S., “China’s Confucius Institutes: understanding the relational structure & relational dynamics of network collaboration”, in R.-S. ZAHARNA, J. HUBBERT, F. HARTIG (eds), Confucius Institutes and the Globalization of China’s Soft Power, Figueroa Press, Los Angeles, pp. 9–30, 2014.

7 Information and Economic Security

When we practice economic intelligence, we are soon struck by the ease with which information about competitors can be acquired. It is usually available to anyone who knows how to look for it, understand it and imagine or anticipate their adversary’s reactions and in order to take competitive advantage from it. We therefore understand why security has become one of the three main domains of economic intelligence. While everything within legal limits is being done to learn about competitors, competitors must likewise do all they can to prevent others from learning about them to create a disequilibrium in their favor. It is even more important as in the hyper-competitive environment that characterizes today’s markets, some firms do not hesitate to turn to illicit means to find what they are looking for. To this can be added the detection of attempts to influence public opinion given that the more time has passed, the more power a rumor has and the more it becomes a virtual reality believed by more people. We must now add, in cybersecurity, means of protection against all kinds of attack; these are becoming more and more costly and are becoming the foremost source of losses in business. For all these reasons, although some managers do not understand this, it is vital to take account of security problems and to tackle them, as a business that cannot protect itself is destined to fail over time. 7.1. Security 7.1.1. Physical security Ensuring the security of a business’ assets is an activity that covers many, very different sectors, from patents, internet sites or software to employees,

Strategic Intelligence for the Future 2: A New Information Function Approach, First Edition. Henri Dou, Alain Juillet and Philippe Clerc. © ISTE Ltd 2019. Published by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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whether on or offsite. The target must be protected from incidents, accidents or attacks, which can occur at any moment. With time, both businesses and citizens have learned to protect themselves using insurance [CHA 17, LOW 17] which, unlike using regulations for online protection, guarantees that losses, damage and potential physical impact will be reimbursed. Today, it is the best means of reducing risk and facing the unexpected, but nevertheless, this does not eliminate risk. Although insurance coverage is very broad, it does not cover everything and leaves elements of important activities uncovered. This is why we must try to identify all potential risks, to see they are covered and suggest measures to secure what we already have. Beyond the compensation or reimbursement of a loss, it is better to avoid the incident happening at all by evaluating risks, monitoring the controls required and implementing the necessary maintenance, renewal or training operations. Moreover, materials, tools and technologies are changing with time. In previous eras, surveillance in factories was ensured by overseers making rounds onsite at a more or less regular pace. These low-skilled jobs are declining, as they are being replaced by cameras placed in strategic places, which make it possible to see instantly and remotely, or indeed by robots who make the same journey at random, noting anything that is atypical (odor, light, noise, movement, etc.). There will therefore be a gradual decrease in the number of guardians, but, at the same time, we will experience a growing need for qualified personnel to direct the robots, or ensure surveillance via cameras. After having identified the tools of the future, our problem is therefore to train operators in advance so that they are able to run them in new jobs. 7.1.2. Security, personnel and visitors Beyond sites’ material security, physical security demands particular attention to the movement of personnel. Many problems arise as a result of failure to monitor personnel and visitors when they arrive or leave or as they move around sites. These problems are treated differently once they have become well-defined. When they arrive, it is necessary to identify people who are really part of the business and move them through the site as quickly as possible. For employees, there has been a shift from badges to electronic contact tags that open doors, and we are reaching remote identification systems that remove

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the need to stop individuals [COH 16]. However, there is a need to stop and identify visitors and put them in touch with their counterparts on site, as they are a real source of risk. For them monitoring means creating a temporary badge for the duration of the visit, which can easily be identified and can restrict access to a selected part of the site. This is especially true in research and production sites where the movement of unfamiliar people in some zones can be damaging to overall security. This problem of human security is even more significant since badges no longer offer the best protection. In the past, it seemed effective, but it is not enough today: a card without a photo or other identification system making it possible for its use to be checked by an individual during checks is no longer useful. A badge may have been borrowed, misused or stolen to carrying out malicious acts or demonstrations, as we saw when Green Peace [MEY 17] entered a French nuclear power plant. Badges or identification systems should be arranged so that they cannot be used by other people without their knowledge. To be convincing, we recall that it is enough to add a specific photo to the Vitale (French social security) card, for example, to significantly reduce social security fraud by rendering it no longer possible to share the card between family or friends. New identification software [COH 16] from Israel and the United States will revolutionize the way we address this problem. After fingerprint recognition, which remains standard for the police even though it is now possible to manufacture fake fingerprints, or iris recognition, which is more complex and slower, but very effective, we are now moving towards identification by step. As you walk, a classic CCTV camera films you and sends data to software that compares you with stock images. As everyone walks in a different way, the system is very effective once it has data about an individual, or once the way they walk has been identified, even if they conceal their figure or change their clothing. There is no doubt that this new technology will soon be in place and that it will aid the fight against terrorism and organized crime. As for monitoring sites, individuals will be recognized by their walk when approaching check points. If the individual passes the door will open automatically while it will remain closed for others, forcing them to enter via reception. In some businesses, the latest recognition software of this kind

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uses “Google glass” type glasses for surveillance, on which the name of the employee appears as they approach. All this happens in real time and will disrupt norms in physical security. As soon as contact is no longer required for identification, surveillance is facilitated and effectiveness increased. In sensitive sites and in all sites with real security, from when you enter to when you leave, someone will know who you are and which area you are in. Similarly, if someone enters empty handed and leaves with a parcel, this will be noted by computer and will trigger a calculated reaction depending on the procedures in place. Inside leading companies and expert firms, there are protected zones where unauthorized individuals should not be allowed to enter. Badges restricting access to some spaces already make this type of protection possible, but without contact, and paired with traffic and monitoring software, it will make this possible by fluidly triggering door opening and triggering automatic warnings when a visitor enters a forbidden zone. At this stage, we must consider legal CNIL (French National Commission for Data Processing and Liberties) obligations [CNI 17] to avoid attacks on personal liberties, but also security requirements for the activity. Monitoring traffic within the business from one point to another or keeping an individual in a confined place may be seen as a restriction on employees’ freedom, as the contactless badge system makes it possible to identify them individually in the same way as visitors. It is therefore necessary at the outset to negotiate with social partners to decide the limits for monitoring each category, making them understand that it is not a case of monitoring personnel, but of detecting individuals who have no reason to be there or who are behaving suspiciously. The risk of industrial espionage, which is growing in parallel with an activity’s sensitivity, is not a myth. Everyone has heard tales of visitors from very competitive countries who always need to go to the toilet, always using toilets furthest from the rest of the group. We should always ensure that visitors are accompanied from arrival to departure and that they are forbidden to move around alone. This will arise from a state of mind which the business’ personnel should hold with conviction, as security depends on them being motivated. If employees understand that any information that moves outside the business will jeopardize the business, their legacy and their future employment, they will

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make the effort required. There is therefore real work to be done in raising awareness and training so that each employee understands that security is everyone’s responsibility. In material security, making it possible voluntarily or involuntarily for others to understand the technologies and machines used, or internal tricks and expertise, means voluntarily or involuntarily ceding competitive advantage to your competitors. This may be your loss. To give a very simple example, let us take a new bakery that wishes to compete with another that has more clients. They will begin using classic research: what does it produce, what does it sell, what are its prices, who are its employees, what does it put in its window, etc. The new bakery will accumulate information to be similar to the popular bakery. If this does not work, it is without doubt because the new bakery’s products are not as good. It is therefore necessary to look at the ingredients it buys, by noting what is delivered at 5 am: flour, dried fruit, cream, yeast, etc. If this is not enough to make things equal, it is because the popular bakery makes their products in a better way: the new bakery needs to know their expertise. Some might therefore imagine having recourse to a work-experience student or an apprentice in the popular bakery to know how long it takes for the dough to rise, the temperature of the oven, etc. This makes it possible to draw attention to the instance of apprentices or work-experience students. They need to do work experience for their training and they need help to do this. But at the level of security and whatever the type of business, they should sign a confidentiality agreement specifying that information sent to their teachers about the work experience should remain entirely confidential, under threat of legal sanctions. To complete your information, you should know that over the years, one or two Internet sites have been created that sell reports from work experience students from prices ranging from a few euros to a few million euros. After they have written their report, some students think it a good idea to sell it to the highest bidder, knowing that depending on the place and type of work experience, this could benefit organizations that are not always well-intentioned. Everyone should be aware that it is not only large businesses who have security problems. It is a state of mind that should be established in everyone since, from bakeries to Renault, this type of failure can be very expensive.

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When we employ work-experience students, when we have professional visitors, when the doors are open, when we use sub-contractors, or when we employ experts or consulting firms, we should be aware that some of them may be competitors who will look, take photos and retain secrets belonging to the business, etc. Certainly, this is forbidden by law, as there is no right to sell information obtained by these means, but espionage is unfortunately a reality. Real life is not as pleasant as what we see in the world of Care Bears on television. Some shareholders and leaders, at home and abroad, have such a desire to succeed that they do not hesitate to go beyond legal limits to rise more quickly despite surveillance by police. The latest statistics on general information published on this topic before its disappearance indicated that 60% of attacks on businesses in France were carried out by French citizens against French businesses. 7.1.3. Security of immaterial goods We know how to account for factories, land, machines, products and financial capital considered when valuing the business. It is secured with the aid of insurance. But the report by Jouyet Levy [LEV 06] showed that this material valuation is not representative of the business’ true value, as immaterial possessions should have been added since these form a growing part of it. Patents, customer files, logistics distribution networks and the business’ image, to cite only a few of these effects, form an integral part of the business’ real value. Defending them first means being aware of them and properly identifying them. This is why security is above all a general state of mind. A sub-contracted provider should, for the best quality/price ratio, ensure consistent quality and seamless supply. Creating a network of providers meeting these criteria has a market value, as it takes time to form and secure it. The logic behind managing buying does not go the same way. It is focused on price and wants the least-cost solution, but this requires taking security risks with supplies, with quality, which may decline, and with meeting expectations from the business’ own clients. Judging only from results on price, the buyer transfers their sector risk onto the whole business. Experience shows that, in most cases, this is true for all the business’ technologies and all its activities. To guarantee the security of intangible assets, we must be aware and keep our eyes and ears open and collect all possible useful information. This has

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become even more difficult, as we have shifted from businesses working in closed circuit to businesses with increasing numbers of sub-contractors, to obtain maximum efficiency across all domains with the best service at the best price. Indeed, any change presents a risk that must be checked and explored in more depth if necessary. In the domain of business security, we often forget the possibility that we may find ourselves in a major crisis. We must integrate into our consideration a way of managing crises and of preparing ourselves through repeat exercises. The problem is relatively simple if we are facing a fire, where insurance will play a role in security at structural as well as at financial level. But there are other crises in the domain of intangible goods for which responses have not been thought of, as no one has reflected on them. If someone steals your customer files, if you lose your sub-contractors upstream, if you are the victim of blackmail, then you have a problem for which possible solutions have probably not been thought through even though the problem puts the business itself in danger. Two years ago, a con developed involving income tax and benefits for directors and upper managers. You receive a message from the manager responsible for tax stating that you are owed money due to over-payment. To make the reimbursement, the message sender requires your credit card details and code. A simple way of avoiding the con was to check the name of the Internet address by looking up “details”. Instead of the tax service, one would have seen a xyhsd.com type address showing that you were witnessing credit card fraud from the “dark web” [UPA 16]. Unfortunately, many people were caught up in the scam, which harmed the ministry and the service’s image at a time when citizens were being encouraged to make their tax declarations online. Considering the growing value of information owned by organizations and individuals, all businesses should take an interest in defending it by creating a hierarchy of the perceived benefit and value of everything that is not classically counted as the business’ property. Each element has the potential to benefit somebody for technical or financial reasons, or to benefit clientele, etc. What are the most interesting areas for your potential competitors? They must be identified so that you can protect them as well as possible by adopting responses to problems. The main problem arises from the weakness of French law in the face of these kinds of attacks. We live in a country where everything physical and material is well protected, while

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intangible goods are not, aside from forgery and patents. This lack of protection for intangible goods through the absence of a law adapted to these new realities poses an elementary problem that has still not been solved despite the existence of reports containing a number of suggestions, such as the one by the solicitor general, Marc Robert [ROB 14]. How do we defend this intangible property, which we know to be poorly protected by our laws? In the expectation of a much-anticipated change, it will be necessary to protect ourselves by applying rules on secrecy, as practiced by the military: professional secrecy, correspondence secrecy, etc., as well as professional mechanisms specified for business secrecy. Theoretically in French law, citizens’ personal data is protected. But, in the context of Internet applications on smartphones, we voluntarily authorize application providers to use our personal data and our information. This is generally the case with our data on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, etc. It is still true for Fnac, Amazon, etc. which, moreover, can resell it for example to travel agencies. France is therefore facing a real problem that is opposition to the French viewpoint, which aims to protect the individual from the view current in the English-speaking world, by which any data leaving your computer can be sold by whoever holds it. It must be recognized that this is leading us toward behavior contradictory behaviors: on the one hand, personal information can be protected, but on the other, it is freely given to users with the consequence that there are restrictions on our individual freedom to which we have freely consented. This will increase in future and will pose a fundamental problem beyond the level of the individual. We provide our life story on Facebook by talking about our business and our work; when we talk on specialist forums, we give our own information to the business and this will be collected and passed through a diverse range of hands. This will be very difficult to manage. It will be necessary to find solutions that consider both the reality of the market and our behavior, given that the French Civil Code protects our personal information so long as we do not share it. 7.2. Disinformation and image management Attacks on the business and its image come in most cases from outside, but there may also be problems coming from within [KIM 10]. This is why internal and external communication must be controlled, given that the one can impact the other and vice versa. Today, with whistle-blowers and firms specializing in fake news, rumors can start from inside or outside the

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business. They can create a negative image for you, for example that “your product is toxic”, which you will not be able to dispel. Experience shows that you must respond immediately, as it can be fatal for the business. The simplicity of the arguments or image used by attackers seems primary and without real risk, but in reality, it is very difficult to manage as time passes. What happened in Europe with sun protection products more than 20 years ago is very instructive. At this time, Bergasol [PAR 97] was the flagship product for avoiding sunburn. This sun protection product was used throughout Europe, when a competitor who had not managed to break through the market started a rumor that Bergasol contained a carcinogenic extract of bergamot. NGOs amplified the rumor by confirming the danger and, under pressure, Brussels decided that products containing bergamot had to be outlawed across Europe. Thus, the European leader was destroyed in three years without any real basis, since the amount of Bergasol you would have to use before negative effects appeared was a liter per day for at least 10 years. It was therefore a medical absurdity, relying on what was yet to become the precautionary principle, yet it worked, to the delight of competitors. From the work of Jean-Noël Kapferer [KAP 13], we know that rumors should not be ignored, as they can be fatal. When Airbus created the ATR for medium-haul flight connections, there was excess icing on the wings during a test flight to test the plane’s behavior. There was an accident and all Airbus’ competitors then launched a global campaign saying that the plane was not viable. Even though the ATR has been demonstrated as having proven security, this rumor followed it for years. In general, when this sort of attack begins, the business has difficulty believing it, since the alleged facts are inaccurate, based only partly on reality, or have been taken out of context. But this is not the problem. The real question is knowing whether the public or professionals will take this information seriously or whether they will reject it. What will happen over the long term, given that the longer false information remains available, the more power it has? Media pressure changes the virtual world into a strong virtual reality. Today, rumors can be even stronger with e-reputation. Information posted on the Internet by a site or by social networks spreads all the more quickly,

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as it seems credible. Taken up by individuals who repeat it to others in their networks, the information circulates very quickly; it takes five days to a week for the whole of France to be aware of it. Moreover, according to an IFOP poll from 2014, seven out of ten French citizens who receive a message from someone they know in good faith believe that it is true. Only three ask if it is serious or credible. The halting of serious strikes by TGV (French high-speed rail service) conductors in 2016 is a good example of this. A folder of slides circulating via the Internet mentioned their living conditions and gave a breakdown of their salaries, emphasizing their privileges. Among the first images seen: the bedtime bonus and a speck bonus (created in 1880 for steam train conductors and drivers filling the coal furnace, which led to health problems). This shocked users, as this bonus was no longer justified for a TGV conductor. There was a whole series of details of this kind, which led passengers to react violently, since there were even physical pressures, and conductors halted a strike that was becoming more and more unpopular. Thus, the publication of tendentious information made it possible to change user opinions about a subset of railway employees with almost immediate effect. Today, we see it is possible to destabilize or destroy a product or business in the same way. When Germany decided to produce a small Mercedes to be located on the “city car” niche, a YouTube film was shown, showing it to be very unstable and showing it overturning when turning corners. In reality, this was an entirely normal internal test film on kinetic balance, but its spread at the hands of fellow car-makers or journalists led the business to defer the launch for nearly a year. 7.3. Pressure groups and NGOs After image and notoriety, it is disinformation and false information that require the business and its environment to be secured, and we should not forget the role of modern pressure groups, which are successfully replacing most lobbying structures without repeating their constraints. Today, the communication of information is skewed by a newcomer, who is changing the rules of the game by taking leave of reality to rely on emotions. It is mastering social networks perfectly: NGOs [BET 01]. Initially, it was willingly believed that these pure-minded, humanitarian and ecological

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organizations were obsessed with safe-guarding the planet and its fundamental values. Then the report from the Prometheus foundation [FON 16] was discovered, stating that 70% of NGOs were financed by businesses or states to defend their interests indirectly using messages that benefitted them. Practicing economic intelligence, we must therefore ask ourselves this question each time: does the NGO have integrity and does it deserve to be heard, or is this an organization financed or led externally which is manipulating us? When the United States were caught engaging in corruption in Europe around the 1980s with the discovery that Northrop Grumman [STE 90] had manipulated European personalities, including a French general, to sell their fighter planes, this created a scandal on a global level. They reacted immediately by launching, directly or indirectly, a counter-attack involving an anti-corruption system based on a OECD convention signed by 30 countries, an NGO to combat corruption (Transparency International) and an NGO for monitoring intermediaries (TRACE [TRA 17]) and internally, the adoption of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act [WIK 18g], which is extraterritorial. At the same time, they put in place a different system for aiding other countries, based on the use of foundations to protect their businesses. When the French wished to sell Rafale to Singapore, they had every chance of success, as it had been tested locally by experts from the country and judged to be better than other, competing planes: the F-16, the Sukhoi and the Eurofighter. Nonetheless, France lost and the United States won, despite being ranked third. What happened? There was no direct corruption, but an American official went to Singapore’s management team to explain that they had a stopover problem for their fleet in Southeast Asia. They needed a deep-water port, because airplanes cannot take off from aircraft carriers at the docks and they also needed a nearby airdrome. They therefore suggested building a port for their large aircraft carriers at the expense of the United States as well as enlarging the airport. Then, by coincidence of course, it was the American planes that won the deal. Similar elements were found in Morroco since the buying of planes was accompanied by the installation of an American command center for Africa and a very large donation to support literacy for rural populations. As far as the neutrality of NGOs is concerned, a good example is provided by Transparency International [BAL 09], which showed its partiality when the English manipulated Saudi Arabia, in the generally

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corrupt Al Yamamah contract [WIK 18a]. At the time, it was considered the largest-scale instance of corruption in the world in view of the size of all kinds of redistribution; sumptuous commissions were destined for some intermediaries, going as far as providing Boeings equipped with bathrooms with gold faucets. Everyone knew that the English groups had implemented structured corruption, but when the British justice system wished to investigate, the Prime Minister Tony Blair had the affair closed for reasons of state. In the face of this scandalous denial of justice, it might have been thought that the ranking of countries depending on their levels of corruption created by Transparency International would have changed. This did not happen and the United Kingdom remained in the leading group of clean countries along with the United States while France lagged far behind. Faced with these kinds of practices, it would be desirable for Transparency International to publish, annually, all the specific criteria used for ranking countries. In the same vein, when the law on business secrecy was voted on in Brussels, we saw Transparency International appear in lobbies fighting against this project; its suggestions aimed to prevent any European move towards greater protection for industrial activity. Besides NGOs who are legally endorsed but whose approaches should be checked, including their origin, financing methods and real governance, there are other, more or less violent means of pressure that will attack a business frontally or indirectly, or will attack a particular aspect of it, ranging from the head of the business to the product, via social media or image. Black blocks [WIK 18b], anarchists or libertarians, will not hesitate to attack a company or type of product to which they object, potentially going so far as to destroy the site or its environment internally or externally. This is still not the case in France, but England, for example, has already seen the destruction of laboratories in the name of protecting animals. These illegal means of pressure will spread in the coming years and we will need to be ready to confront them and decode these actions by anticipating them, all the more so as they can, on a legal level, be carried out by NGOs who do not always have a global view of the problem. If we take the example of land mines which are a scourge of populations in former combat zones, NGOs and other pressure groups are allied to, rightly, denounce the use and manufacture of land mines. This has led European armament industries to stop their manufacture and banks to stop

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financing them under pressure from public opinion. The problem is that the United States, China and Russia, who did not sign the international Ottawa convention in 1997, still manufacture and sell land mines. Moral and virtuous actions in fact lead to a distortion of competition. There are many other examples of this kind, which are leading to the closure of entire business sectors in many countries, while others are continuing to develop them. Take the case of tax havens; many of our fellow citizens are shocked by their practices and use. It is true that the press and television have taken responsibility for reminding us how much our States are penalized fiscally and economically when tax havens are used. Under pressure from NGOs and international media groups, European tax havens were first combatted, with the result that leading capital investors left for Switzerland, Luxembourg or elsewhere to other tax havens outside Europe. The second stage is now to combat those situated in the Caribbean or elsewhere. When this has been done, there will remain only two countries left: the United States with Delaware and China with Hong-Kong and Macao [DOG 14]. Curiously, while American laws require the disclosure of account-holder names in tax havens, they forbid it in their own country. Delaware is therefore the main beneficiary of this war on tax havens. We might therefore be surprised by the silence of NGOs who are so quick to criticize the rest of the world. The old adage “look at who profits from the crime” is thus always current. At each attack by defenders of virtue and grand principles we should question their motivations and real aims and be ready to act to thwart their actions if they are unjust. 7.4. IT security We must now address the many problems posed by digitization and data storage all the more as we are only seeing the beginnings of Big Data and connected objects. Faced with the rising power of this technical environment, it will be necessary to develop defensive abilities to protect ourselves [GUI 13]. Attacks already are and will continue to be of various types depending on the goal sought and the quality of the defense. You may be accused by a pressure group or NGO of storing personal data illegally and using it unethically. Even if this is not true, you will need to be able to

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defend yourself and have a ready response, as it could lead to a scandal from which it may be difficult to recover. But it is much more serious today with attacks by hackers who can penetrate your system and appropriate your data [ZHU 11]. Our fellow citizens are beginning to understand that one can introduce small programs into a network, which will analyze its structure, explore the IT system and try to find where your protected files are stored. They will locate the most sensitive data and as soon as new data arrives in the right place, they will immediately make an illicit copy of it. The problem is that the victim takes a great deal of time to realize what has happened if the Gartner firm is to be believed [CAR 17]; the firm declared an average delay longer than 200 days. Beyond the loss of effectiveness, this costs businesses millions of euros. Moreover, wrong-doers who commit these data thefts take an extremely low risk, given the failure of our laws to adapt to these problems. From this perspective, bank robbers are merely the vestiges of a past that has been revolutionized in terms of overly high risks, for generally reduced profitability. Take scamming CEOs, which has caused the loss of hundreds of millions of euros (this loss is counted at more than 400 million euros) over three years in the 160 largest French businesses. This is much more than all attacks on banks, postal vans or money transfers over the same period. The method is simple. One evening, generally on a Friday, an internal email signed by the CEO arrives in the finance or accounting department asking, concerning a secret discussion currently under negotiation, that a very substantial sum should be wired immediately to account yyy. The person who receives this email, written exactly like those of the CEO, contacts their superior, who is absent that day, just like the CEO who is travelling and uncontactable. Faced with this dilemma and the pressure exerted by the email which appears entirely authentic, the person makes the transfer. The next day, or when the CEO returns, when they are told about the difficulties wiring the sum demanded, the penny drops and they realize that the business will has just lost one or several million euros. We will now unpick the mechanism behind this scam. Around 140 days before this attack, according to English-speaking specialists, spyware was introduced into the business’ IT system. It carefully analyzes the communication flow, message recipients, the way people write and express themselves, then rehashes internal rules and forms communications between individuals, etc. The software also puts together an organigram of the business and the various responsibilities of individuals in it. Likewise, managers’ agendas are examined to detect the

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most favorable moment, that is, the day they will be absent. At the same time, it detects operations under way and how important they are. When this “leg work” is finished, the attack will be launched. It only lasts as long as the time it takes to send the email, that is, a few minutes. When the transfer has been made, it is immediately transferred from the bank that receives it to another bank, then generally to another bank in Asia where all trace of it is lost. The saddest thing is that most of those who make such attacks from abroad have been identified. It has even been possible to visit them, but they risk practically nothing, as they cannot be extradited. This may seem too high, but it must be noted that millions of euros have been appropriated from respectable French businesses, whose weakness in the face of such practices would not have been suspected, but also small businesses, many of which have had to file for bankruptcy. Defending oneself from such actions means being up to date with the possibility of experiencing kinds of attack that “only happen to others”, then putting in place very strict protocols that should be followed even if external pressures ask you to deviate from them. One should also be aware that experts who attack businesses do so over time. The IT system is broken into, and taking their time, the attackers look around and gather information. Objectives vary, since they are just as likely to focus on the financial situation and on credit conditions as on pirating patents or appropriating expertise and research plans. To secure their malicious actions, these hackers work using series of machines provided with successive networks (Botnets) [WIK 18c], given that it is extremely difficult to find the origin of an attack occurring in three waves. The mafia and rogue states and also some specialist services also use sub-contracting, which they negotiate in the dark web. When TV5 Monde was attacked by hackers who managed to block the channel and leave the black flag of Daesh on viewers’ screens for several hours, the conclusion was drawn that Daesh had excellent experts on launching cyberattacks. The enquiry showed that a private group of Russian hackers had carried out the sub-contracted attack for a client who has still not been clearly identified. Today, any successful business should have a security system that makes it possible to avoid these problems or at least to reduce them considerably.

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Let us look at the Sony affair, in which North Korea was accused of having attacked Sony, as it had produced a film about a dictator who resembled its supreme leader, considered scandalous by North Korea. Some weeks later, the energy supply to a city in North Korea was entirely cut off for 12 hours. Some saw this as a response to the attack on Sony, but this group was not capable of blocking an entire city, that is, of taking control of energy distribution, telecommunications, traffic lights, etc. Others hence concluded some weeks afterward that the Sony affair had been fabricated to carry out the attack on North Korea. This was a poor interpretation as specialists later discovered that the North Koreans had a team of experts who were particularly good at cyber-attacks. In the real world, things are becoming more and more complicated, as we must be able to identify who is behind events, that is, the real attacker. In addition, we are only at the start of the digital era with innovative and ever more effective systems in domains as varied as domotics, smart cities or more generally connected objects. Today, with adapted means, a number of activities can be blocked at all levels. One of the most virulent recent attacks was carried out against the nuclear fuel enrichment plant in Natanz [KEN 15] in Iran, in which thousands of small centrifuges made it possible, little by little, to enrich uranium. The Stuxnet virus [KUS 13], designed by the United States and Israel, was used to destroy this equipment by disrupting the centrifuge control system to create sudden variations in speed. As the factory was cut off with no communication with the outside world, the virus was certainly introduced through human action by connecting a USB stick containing the virus to the plant’s IT system. This military attack against Iran worked perfectly, since it announced the destruction of 60% of centrifuges. A chronometer had been placed in the virus, enabling the virus to self-destruct after a set time. But this was overlooked, which enabled it to be identified. It is likely that an engineer hoping to work from home connected a USB stick to the plant’s IT system to extract data and that it picked up the virus, which was then passed to his or her computer, and then spread worldwide via the Internet, which enabled it to be followed and identified. This is why the designers invented Flame [WIK 18d], another virus that autodestructs. The civilian derivative of this software attacks SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) systems in factories, that is, it attacks the computer control of machines and production lines [SEK 16]. The attackers

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send a virus into a factory and warn management that they will destroy the factory if they do not provide millions of euros or rather bitcoins to a foreign account. The CEO has no more than a few hours to decide whether they will pay or whether they will take the risk of ending up with an unusable factory for a substantial length of time. We are seeing the development of the same kind of technique with the jamming of screens in businesses or hospitals followed by the publication of a demand for payment to stop the blockage, as happened recently with WannaCry [WIK 18e]. In most cases, businesses prefer to pay, as they have little choice and we should be prepared to face this type of attack more often in the near future. Experience shows that substantial information leaks from businesses have various origins. Incompetence, lack of training and the absence of protection measures are common causes. One might also face internal malicious actions and external attacks by hackers who have been paid to attack, or who are testing new procedures. Finally, there are also little “gremlins” in cyberspace who will steal information to resell it third parties or sell it back to you for a ransom. Our IT systems are usually very fragile and IT systems managers are often poorly prepared to tackle skilled professional hackers. The world of the Web is separated into three. The visible part, which is the smallest, contains everything we use every day on the net. The “deep web” [MAD 08] makes it possible to go deeper, retrieving existing information, but it also requires specialists to know how to search it. The “dark web” [ABB 10] was invented from the first to facilitate exchanges in total secrecy between intelligence services and their agents on the ground. It can only be accessed with specialist search engines since each address is specific and impossible to find with a simple search. For more information on the deep web, consult the white paper on it [BER 01]. With time, the dark web has become the place for illegal traffic of all kinds. It contains sites that freely sell drugs, arms or pharmaceutical products as well as pirated files or information. It also provides the opportunity to hire a hitman to remove a competitor or to bring together experts to carry out targeted actions that can bring big money to its authors. With the increasing sophistication of offensive and defensive techniques, we can see its actors becoming specialized: some are interested only in using files, in code breaking, in collecting ransoms and other payments obtained by force while others work on penetrating organizations or stealing data. They can come together for one action, like the old gangs of bandits who temporarily

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brought together locksmiths specializing in safes with robbers and receivers. They are thus able to mount pirating operations without leaving any trace that could lead back to them or even less so to the client, if there is one. Faced with these criminal organizations which develop as a result of the profitability of their actions and the low risks incurred, we must secure our systems in an increasingly complex environment where innovation does not always benefit the honest. IT directors (DSI in French [WIK 18f]) are even more defenseless the more they make substantial investments to implement IT systems whose permeability they need to be familiar with, once it is identified, and who need to recognize any intrusion they experience. Faced with this situation, we need a change in mindset. Just as the account holder should not sign checks, the IT director should not be responsible for their systems security. Crisis management and security specialists must be named or employed to carry out audits to identify, evaluate and reduce risks. Steps for increasing awareness, training and above all additional investment will result. Considering the cost of the failures and risks run, defense and protection of IT systems is increasingly becoming a priority even though we have only recently become interested in their operational effectiveness. Attackers’ imaginations can be infinite. We have a good example of this with counterfeit software, such as USB sticks given as gifts. It is striking to see how managers and technicians fall, without any suspicion, into the trap of the infected USB stick in which a small piece of software will spread cookies or other programs that can steal information. Worse still, it may contain viruses able to disrupt your computers. This is why any USB stick given as a gift or one of unknown provenance should at least be monitored and better still reformatted on a dedicated computer to be certain that it is harmless. Unfortunately, this sort of useful precaution is rarely used systematically in businesses or research laboratories. Security is first and foremost a state of mind that starts with mistrusting anything that is not clearly identified. We should be neither paranoid not naïve, but we recognize that we have a culturally “rose-tinted” mindset and this should be reason enough for us to mistrust ourselves [CDS 09]. We live in a very competitive environment in which each person is trying to take advantage and in which there is “no such thing as a free lunch”. Certainly,

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altruism and generosity should be part of our lives, but behind the good Dr. Jekyll there may lurk a Mr. Hyde. 7.5. Safeguarding data In the context of economic intelligence, it is essential to safeguard data and information systems. Everyone knows this should be done regularly to reduce the volume lost in case of accident. Many forget that these safeguards should not be stored in the same place as the servers, as if there is a fire for example, everything will be destroyed at the same time. Cybertools are not immune to breakdowns, bugs or freezing. It is helpful to have envisaged the scenario and better still to have foreseen it, since dealing with equipment failures is one aspect of security. It should be borne in mind that nothing is perfect, that all systems have bugs and that patches are provided by manufacturers to fix them without delay. If we do not, we join the ranks of those trapped by viruses such as WannaCry as a result of not adding the patch quickly enough. Another instance to envisage is one where computer systems break down entirely. If there is an updated global back-up in an independent system, the machine can be reactivated and if not, all data will be lost. This problem is also posed by USB sticks or external hard drives; it is dangerous to lose them if everything is stored on them, although we only need to duplicate them to remove this risk. To finish on data storage, it should be recognized that there is general awareness of the importance of the problem and the risks run. Useful reflexes and experience have been acquired from the use of effective methods or tools. Over the past 10 years, our protection has relied on the concept of fairly effective firewalls. But things are changing, as the very concept of viruses has evolved and these will be detected less and less often by classic firewalls. The only chance of blocking them will rely on spotting the small parts of the virus after it segments, which will then be recombined after passing through anti-virus software. This involves other tools and shows the importance of remaining attentive to the development of malicious products when considering security. 7.6. Respecting security clearance We all know that digitally identifying the sender and recipient is essential for flow security whether between two operators or between connected

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objects. Likewise, in exchanges within organizations or with external contacts, we are rapidly becoming aware of the importance of security clearance and the need to respect this type of authorization. In sensitive businesses, authorization is given allowing movement within particular zones or across an entire site. Each level of clearance attaches conditions for access and the limits within which given IT systems can be used, according to need. This may be restricted to an office, to data within a single file or particular intranet addresses. It should be specific and should rely on real means of control to be respected by everyone. Valeo works on future models for many car manufacturers across the world. This obliges them, in order to maintain total confidentiality, to have impermeable partitions between various activities. Each laboratory works in closed circuit to avoid the slightest leak. Nevertheless, in the case of the young Chinese student who came to Valeo for work experience in a number of laboratories, things were different. One day, an engineer noticed that she had connected her computer to the laboratory’s computer circuit. The security manager was alerted and went to the other laboratories and found that the same thing had occurred. There was therefore a serious risk of leaks and the French authorities were alerted. During a search in this student’s room a whole series of computers was found, corresponding to each laboratory. Questioned for industrial espionage, the student denied the charges, explaining that she had extracted various data as information for other students who remained in China. Since she was in prison, the Chinese Ambassador requested a meeting with the CEO to induce him to withdraw his complaint. He agreed, to avoid any trouble for his factory in China. The student, now released, was able to continue her studies at the University of Compiègne and it is told that at a pressing request from the Embassy, the CEO of Valeo was present at her graduation ceremony. This story reveals the importance of respecting and monitoring security clearances. In this instance, everything had been predicted except the case of itinerant trainees. Today, large modern firms are very difficult to penetrate, as there are internal security services or specialist forms that ensure, on a physical, material and intangible level, that everything that arrives at or leaves the business is monitored along with internal flows. Security clearances contribute to this, but cannot be the only means of implementing this objective.

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7.7. Crisis management Despite all the systems put in place and the effectiveness of teams and systems, we are never safe from attack, or from a competitor or criminal organization taking advantage of a failure. This is why a capacity for resilience is vital in the face of unpredicted events that may have serious consequences. This is a priority for the effectiveness of crisis management. Indeed, we should be aware that we cannot improvise on this. A crisis can only be resolved properly if the eventuality has been tackled upstream [BOI 00]. In all security domains, we need a crisis management team made up of individuals selected for their ability and experience, who will imagine situations and create practice scenarios for solving likely potential crises. So, if there is a real crisis, the team will have acquired useful experience enabling them to deal with the current event based on one or more cases already tackled during exercises. In this team, there is generally someone responsible who will be in control during the crisis, someone responsible for communication and someone who liaises with public authorities, then professionals who will take the necessary initiatives on the ground, etc. It should always be borne in mind that the best means of overcoming crises lies in preparing for them collectively. It is an error to think that one can manage alone, while improvising. This is especially true in the domain of intangible goods. If solutions and procedures for responding in a state of crisis have not been considered beforehand, too much time will be lost and failure will result. 7.8. Conclusion Beyond practicing physical, material and immaterial security, which are vital to achieving a competitive level of economic intelligence, economic security relies above all on a state of mind. Pragmatically and without any naivety, the practitioner should take care that the information differential with competitors remains in their favor by ensuring that others cannot acquire information on the strong points that differentiate them from competitors. This means following the evolution of technologies with the growing use of artificial intelligence, recognizing methods of attack used against others and their responses, as well as taking care to systematically monitor digital identities used in the business, for sending as well as for receiving. The problem is therefore not to complicate the others’ tasks by

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force, but to ensure that the business cannot be attacked and ransacked, so as to maintain its economic activity in the best conditions. 7.9. References [ABB 10] ABBASI A., FU T., CHEN H., “A focused crawler for Dark Web forums”, Journal of the Association for Information Science and Technology, vol. 61, no. 6, pp. 1213–1231, 2010. [BAL 09] BALL C., “What is transparency?”, Public Integrity, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 293–308, 2009. [BER 01] BERGMAN M.-K., “White paper: The deep web: Surfacing hidden value”, Journal of Electronic Publishing, vol. 7, no. 1, 2001, available at: https://quod.lib.umich.edu/cgi/t/text/idx/j/jep/3336451.0007.104/–white-paper-thedeep-websurfacing-hidden-value?rgn=main;view=fulltext. [BET 01] BETSILL M.-M., CORELL E., “NGO influence in international environmental negotiations: A framework for analysis”, Global Environmental Politics, vol. 1, no. 4, pp. 65–85, 2001. [BOI 00] BOIN A., LAGADEC P., “Preparing for the future: Critical challenges in crisis management”, Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 185–191, 2000. [CAR 17] CARE J., “Cyber attacks to the left, ransomware to the right. We need to spend money on what?”, Gartner Blog Network, June 27, 2017, available at: https://blogs.gartner.com/jonathan-care/2017/06/27/cyber-attacks-to-the-leftransomware-to-the-right-we-need-to-spend-money-on-what/. [CDS 09] CDSE, “L’entretien : Alain Juillet, haut responsable chargé de l’intelligence économique”, March 18, 2009, available at: https://www.cdse.fr/l-entretien-alainjuillet. [CHA 17] CHASE J., NIYATO D., WANG P. et al., A Scalable Approach to Joint Cyber Insurance and Security-as-a-Service Provisioning in Cloud Computing, IEEE, Piscataway, 2017. [CNI 17] CNIL, La CNIL en bref, 2017, available at: https://www.cnil.fr/ sites/default/files/atoms/files/cnil_en_bref-2016_0.pdf. [COH 16] COHEN C.-J., BEACH G.-J., CAVELL B. et al., “Cybernet systems corporation”, Behavior Recognition System, vol. 9, no. 304, p. 593, 2016. [DOG 14] DOGAN A., “Fiscal paradises and G-20 as a global decision maker”, in E. SORHUN, Ü. HACIOĞLU, H. DINÇER (eds), Regional Economic Integration and the Global Financial System, IGI Global, Hershey, 2014.

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[EYN 13] EYNARD J., Les données personnelles : Quelle définition pour un régime de protection efficace ?, Michalon Éditeur, Paris, 2013. [FON 16] FONDATION PROMETHEUS, Baromètre 2015–2016 de transparence des ONG, Report, 2016, available at: http://www.fondation-prometheus.org/wsite/wpcontent/uploads/Barometre_ONG_2015_2016.pdf. [GUI 13] GUITTON C., “Cyber insecurity as a national threat: Overreaction from Germany, France and the UK?”, European Security, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 21–35, 2013. [KAP 13] KAPFERER J.-N., Rumors: Uses, Interpretations, and Images, Transaction Publishers, Piscataway, 2013. [KEN 15] KENNEY M., “Cyber-terrorism in a post-stuxnet world”, Orbis, vol. 59, no. 1, pp. 111–128, 2015. [KIM 10] KIMMEL A.-J., AUDRAIN-PONTEVIA A.-F., “Analysis of commercial rumors from the perspective of marketing managers: Rumor prevalence, effects, and control tactics”, Journal of Marketing Communications, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 239–253, 2010. [KUS 13] KUSHNER D., “The real story of stuxnet”, IEEE Spectrum, vol. 50, no. 3, pp. 48–53, 2013. [LEV 06] LEVY M., JOUYET J.-P., L’économie de l’immatériel : La croissance de demain, La Documentation française, Paris, 2006, available at: http://www. ladocumentationfrancaise.fr/rapports-publics/064000880/index.shtml. [LOW 17] LOW P., “Insuring against cyber-attacks”, Computer Fraud & Security, no. 4, pp. 18–20, 2017. [MAD 08] MADHAVAN J., KO D., KOT L. et al., “Google’s deep web crawl”, Proceedings of the VLDB Endowment, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 1241–1252, 2008, available at: http://www.sysnet.ucsd.edu/sysnet/miscpapers/p1241-madhavan.pdf. [MEY 17] MEYER T., “Nucléaire et question climatique : Construction et conséquences d’un discours géopolitique en France et en Suède”, Herodote, no. 2, pp. 67–90, 2017. [PAR 97] PARATTE F., Bronzage, bergamotier, PhD thesis, Université de Franche-Comté, 1997.

bergaptène

et

Bergasol®,

[ROB 14] ROBERT M., Lutte contre la cybercriminalité, Ministère de la Justice, June 30, 2014, available at: http://www.justice.gouv.fr/publications-10047/rapportsthematiques-10049/lutte-contre-la-cybercriminalite-27415.html.

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[SEK 16] SEKURIGI, “Irongate : Le malware successeur de stuxnet peut saboter les systèmes scada”, July 25, 2016, available at: https://www.sekurigi.com/ 2016/07/irongate-malware-successeur-de-stuxnet-saboter-systemes-scada/. [STE 90] STEVENSON R.W., “Bribe charges backed at Northrop era end”, The New York Times, September 21, 1990, available at: http://www.nytimes.com/1990/ 09/21/business/bribe-charges-backed-as-northrop-era-ends.html. [TRA 17] TRACE, Anti bribery compliance solutions, 2017, available at: https://www.traceinternational.org/. [UPA 16] UPADHYAYA R., JAIN A., “Cyber ethics and cyber crime: A deep dwelved study into legality, ransomware, underground web and bitcoin wallet”, 2016 International Conference on Computing, Communication and Automation (ICCCA), Noida, India, April 29–30, 2016. [WIK 18a] WIKIPEDIA, “Al-Yamamah arms deal”, 2018, available at: https://en. wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Yamamah_arms_deal. [WIK 18b] WIKIPEDIA, “Black Bloc”, 2018, available at: https://fr.wikipedia. org/wiki/Black_Bloc. [WIK 18c] WIKIPEDIA, “Botnet”, 2018, available at: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/ Botnet. [WIK 18d] WIKIPEDIA, “Flame (ver informatique)”, 2018, available at: https://fr. wikipedia.org/wiki/Flame_(ver_informatique). [WIK 18e] WIKIPEDIA, “WannaCry”, 2018, available at: https://fr.wikipedia.org/ wiki/WannaCry. [WIK 18f] WIKIPEDIA, “Directeur des systèmes d’information”, 2018, available at: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Directeur_des_syst%C3%A8mes_d%27 information. [WIK 18g] WIKIPEDIA, “Foreign Corrupt Practices Act”, 2018, available at: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Corrupt_Practices_Act. [ZHU 11] ZHU B., JOSEPH A., SASTRY S., “A taxonomy of cyber attacks on SCADA systems”, 2011 International Conference on Internet of Things and 4th International Conference on Cyber, Physical and Social Computing, Dalian, China, October 19–22, 2011.

Conclusion

In this book, we have underlined the complexity of the “information function” and its role in the evolution, or indeed mutation of organizations. This approach by analogy is new, but it emphasizes the major role of information in developing activities in competitive intelligence. Without going into details, we have emphasized as an example how current technological evolutions make it possible to make searches using advanced (expert) modes accessible on Google, Google Scholar, Pubmed or patent databases. We have also emphasized that in current technological evolutions, there are many systems that are not onerous, allowing for sophisticated searches and the statistical analysis of large datasets. This underlines the importance of a holistic search to understand a better vision of our environment. The systems described and used, although they are not limiting, are within everyone’s reach and should be used endogenously within organizations. This use enables an immediate, flexible and modular search depending on ideas, results and analyses. It also makes it possible to answer questions asked in semi-real time, to meet “benchmarking”, innovations and other protected applications or products. Acquiring this ability is a decisive step towards mutation. We have also emphasized the fact that all information should be checked and that critical thought is necessary: we should not be naive, we should not confuse robots with human beings, we should not rush into social networks at the least alert (real or not). In an increasingly complex world, it is becoming vital to decode information. This decoding should rely on a new, less restricted way of thinking, one that is more open to the world and more global. An organization or an individual should always be on guard against being influenced or manipulated without their knowledge. It is only through this constant effort that the business, like

Strategic Intelligence for the Future 2: A New Information Function Approach, First Edition. Henri Dou, Alain Juillet and Philippe Clerc. © ISTE Ltd 2019. Published by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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a child learning, will be able to master its environment and acquire maturity in the way it makes decisions. The information that underpins decisions is a “goods” that belongs to the business; in this sense, it should be protected and secured. Information can also be used maliciously when rumors circulate against you. It is in such a context that one must organize to put in place immediate and effective measures. These cannot be improvised, and we must therefore often envisage the worst and be ready to act quickly. The process of making decisions is a complex sequence requiring intuition, knowledge of the context and vision. It is in this way that endogenous mastery of information makes it possible, by linking it to feedback from deciders, to act in the best conditions. The world in which businesses and institutions are evolving is complex; multilateral agreements are giving way to bilateral agreements. Positions that were often thought to be unchangeable are changing suddenly. The best way to react is to understand the evolutions that surround us. This means that we must always be able to access information, analyze it, validate it and build knowledge for action from these analyses. It is from this “constant schooling” that organizations will develop the agility needed to move in a global context that is at best uncertain.

Index

A access to the results of public research, 87 allegory of the cave, 16 anabolism, 3 analyzing sentiment, 165 tweets, 163 anticipating and wishing, 28 apprentices or work experience students, 189 approach epigenetic, 7 hollistic, 81 reductionist, 80 appropriation by citizens, 37 archetype(s), 7 evolution of, 9 automatic summaries, 140 B, C barrier language, 89 linguistic, 90 Big Data, 174 bottom up, 38 brainstorming, 29 capacity for resilience, 205

careful, 155 catabolism, 3 citations, 128 civil society, 27 click farms, 172 clustering, 98 co-creation, 162 coherent strategy, 30 company social networks, 155 concept title, 118 Confucius Institute, 160 coopetition, 37 creativity, 27, 45 (and) innovation, 33 crises, 205 cybercrime, 157 cybersecurity, 185 D data scientists, 176 denial of reality, 17 disruptions, 15 distortion of competition, 197 E electronic publishing, 86 epimemetic, 8 e-reputation, 156

Strategic Intelligence for the Future 2: A New Information Function Approach, First Edition. Henri Dou, Alain Juillet and Philippe Clerc. © ISTE Ltd 2019. Published by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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error (as a restraint on creativity), 23 European Union, 64 F, G fake news, 193 dynamic, 170 fake videos, 174 firewalls, 203 Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, 195 foresight group, 36 France Stratégie, 68 GIGO, 143 global vision, 97 Google Scholar, 106 I identification by step, 187 identity theft, 157 imagination, 45 increased productivity, 143 indicators, 92 individuation, 1 according to Jung, 5 according to Simondon, 6 infiltrate, 158 information function, 1 endogenous, 8 innovation, 46 (in) Asia, 60 frugal, 37, 48 incremental, 49 marketing, 48 mechanism, 47 open, 50 organization, 48 process, 48 product, 48 (and) territories, 69 intra-company, 126 invention, 46 (the) iron cage, 20

K, L, M kind codes, 128 legal obligations, 188 manipulation, 151 Matheo Analyzer, 110 matrix, 115 metabolism food, 2 information, 75 metadata, 81 meta-information, 136 minimizing negative influence, 158 N, O negentropy, 3 network, 112 autopoietic, 4 New Public Diplomacy, 160 NGO, 194 obligation to exploit, 123 observers, 35 open archive (HAL), 87 organization, criminal, 202 learning, 11 outdated intellectual framework, 15 P Parkinson’s law, 24 patent(s) family of, 128 information, analyzing, 124 contained in, 120 Matheo, 124 Pulse, 124 persuasive computing, 175 PoP, 107 potential risks, 186 processing, bibliometric, 82

Index

local, 132 remote, 124 public innovation policies in France, 68 R received ideas, 25 reductionism, 22 regional fragmentation, 34 future, 34 research, 46 niche areas, 143 resonator, 171 rise in inequality, 38 S safeguarding data, 203 scamming CEOs, 198 scientific publications, 106 secondary rights, 88 security, human, 187 physical, 185 self-criticism, 2 self-deception, 175 sensitive businesses, 204 serendipity, 29 simplify procedures, 71 smart cities, 68 socialbot, 151 solidity, 122

213

state of lucidity, 18 mind, 202 new, 52 strategic dependence, 133 sub-contractors, 190 T, U, V technical illiteracy, 120 objects, 10 thinking holistic, 21 lateral, 22 outside of the box, 19 time factor, 76 transgression and disruption, 26 triple helix, 47 typology (of) accessible networks, 152 information, 77 understanding of other cultures, 18 uniformization of our vision of the world, 17 use of the invention, 123 utility models, 121 value of information, 191 validating research, 143 voice morphing, 174 W, Z Web of Science, 110 zone of proximal development, 9

Summary of Volume 1

Preface Introduction Chapter 1. For a New Strategic and Competitive Intelligence 1.1. Our assessment 1.2. The present day 1.3. Tomorrow 1.4. Conclusion 1.5. References Chapter 2. Geopolitics and Strategic Intelligence 2.1. Principles of analysis 2.1.1. Getting to the point 2.1.2. Having an open mind 2.1.3. Knowing how to decode information 2.1.4. Learning how to sort through information 2.2. The evolving world 2.2.1. The increasing power of the individual 2.2.2. The evolution of power relationships 2.3. A changing world 2.3.1. International institutions 2.3.2. Bilateral agreements 2.4. Increased risks 2.4.1. Climate risks 2.4.2. Risks linked to resources 2.4.3. Medical risks 2.4.4. Natural risks

Strategic Intelligence for the Future 2: A New Information Function Approach, First Edition. Henri Dou, Alain Juillet and Philippe Clerc. © ISTE Ltd 2019. Published by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Strategic Intelligence for the Future

2.4.5. Political risks 2.4.6. Nuclear risks 2.4.7. Cyber risks 2.5. Conclusion 2.6. References Chapter 3. Competitive Intelligence Schools Across the World: Foundations, Influence and Perspectives 3.1. Introduction: what is the competitive intelligence school? 3.2. Visions that inspire schools of thought 3.2.1. “Power countries” 3.2.2. “Emerging countries” 3.3. The advent of the competitive intelligence schools 3.3.1. Geopolitical and geoeconomic framework 3.3.2. Doctrines 3.4. The “nourishing disciplines” of competitive intelligence and communities of public/private practice 3.4.1. Disciplines and “schools of practice” 3.4.2. The African and Chinese schools of competitive intelligence 3.5. Conclusion 3.6. References Chapter 4. Competitive Intelligence as a Vehicle for International Collaboration 4.1. The arrival of new signs 4.1.1. Definitions of competitive intelligence 4.1.2. Maintaining competitive advantages 4.2. Increasing instability 4.2.1. More developed countries 4.2.2. Low-income countries 4.3. The French example 4.4. Collaboration 4.4.1. The foundations of collaboration 4.4.2. Academic collaboration 4.4.3. Bilateral network collaborations 4.4.4. Collaboration between organizations 4.4.5. Collaborations through international institutions 4.4.6. Collaboration via chambers of commerce and industry 4.5. Conclusion 4.6. References

Summary of Volume 1

Chapter 5. Regional Competitive Intelligence 5.1. What do we mean by territories? 5.1.1. Regional and international patterns of economic development and innovation 5.1.2. Intelligent specialization strategies 5.2. A typology of territories 5.3. Definition of territorial intelligence 5.4. The challenges of territorial intelligence 5.5. Rethinking our intelligence capabilities in territorial situations 5.5.1. Strategic coordination deficits 5.5.2. Needing to be organized 5.6. The intelligence of situations 5.6.1. The establishment of competitive and strategic regional facilities 5.6.2. The goals of these facilities 5.7. The main areas of intervention of this competitive intelligence and regional strategic facility or organization 5.8. The generic configuration of the facility 5.8.1. Regional strategic steering group (CRPS) 5.8.2. The interpretational group 5.8.3. The spotters 5.9. Strategic management approach: mapping and analysis tools 5.9.1. The map of key territory actors 5.9.2. Critical resources of a territory 5.9.3. The influence potential of a territory 5.10. Operational implementation 5.11. Conclusion 5.12. References Chapter 6. Influence 6.1. The current foundations of influence 6.2. Who is going to communicate? 6.3. Knowledge of the target and information 6.4. Rumors 6.5. The “media sounding board” 6.6. Cultural or public diplomacy 6.7. Positive influence 6.7.1. Influence, rumors and territorial attractiveness 6.7.2. Becoming attractive 6.8. Conclusion 6.9. References

Strategic Intelligence for the Future

Chapter 7. Sphere of Influence 7.1. The return of geopolitics in the economic field 7.2. Power strategy and influence strategy 7.2.1. States 7.2.2. Companies 7.3. The sphere of influence: illustrations 7.3.1. Definitions 7.3.2. The sphere of influence of a company 7.3.3. The sphere of influence of a territory 7.4. Conclusion 7.5. Bibliography Chapter 8. Organizational Intelligence 8.1. Definition 8.2. Organizational intelligence and cognitive pathologies 8.2.1. The brakes of the organization 8.2.2. Corporate culture: both a brake and lever of organizational intelligence 8.3. An example: the US–Japan FSX Fighter program or “thinking out of the silos” 8.4. Organizational intelligence and strategies 8.4.1. Networks 8.4.2. Agile organizations 8.4.3. A network of experts 8.4.4. The culture of organizations: management of cognitive biases and vehicle for the creation of a knowledge base of the environment 8.4.5. Managing the culture of organizations 8.4.6. Learning organization 8.5. Collective intelligence and organization of sensor networks 8.6. Conclusion 8.7. References Chapter 9. From Military Intelligence to Competitive Intelligence 9.1. From the military to the economy 9.1.1. Military warfare 9.1.2. Integration of the economy 9.1.3. The priority of the economy 9.1.4. The economic army 9.2. Forms and aims of intelligence

Summary of Volume 1

9.2.1. The importance of intelligence 9.2.2. Economic intelligence 9.2.3. Global intelligence 9.2.4. Intelligence as global tool 9.3. The practice of intelligence 9.3.1. Intelligence for everyone 9.3.2. Weak and strong signals 9.3.3. The tools of intelligence 9.3.4. Sources of intelligence 9.3.5. Public/private collaboration in company intelligence 9.4. Intelligence and its cycle 9.4.1. Decoding what we might notice to understand reality 9.4.2. The intelligence cycle 9.4.3. Knowing oneself 9.4.4. Definition of the research framework 9.4.5. Prospective vision 9.4.6. The research plan 9.4.7. Collecting data 9.4.8. Data cross-checking 9.5. Analysis 9.6. The synthesis of information and its dissemination 9.6.1. From adequacy to expectations 9.7. Conclusion 9.8. References Conclusion Index

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