Routledge handbook of transport in Asia 9781138826014, 1138826014

Table of contents :
Introduction: Transport in Asia --
High-speed railways in Asia --
The Asian highway and Trans-Asian railway networks: origins, progress of development and prospects in the future --
Road traffic safety in Asia: an analysis based on DPSIR+C framework --
Railway accidents --
Maritime accidents --
Air pollution and transport in China and India --
Transportation in disasters: lessons learned from Geje 2011 --
Social exclusion and land passenger transport in Asia --
Social exclusion and the place of urban passenger transport in developing Asian countries --
Social exclusion and transport in an aging and shrinking society --
Ensen Kaihatsu (railway area developments) in Japan: a comparison with transit-oriented development (TOD) --
Urban development along rails in other Asian regions --
An overview of Asian studies on transport and land use --
City logistics in Asia --
Railway freight transport and logistics --
Air cargo transport and logistics in Hong Kong and southern China --
Benchmarking, efficiency measurement, and productivity analysis for aviation sector in Asia --
Financing mechanisms for transport infrastructure and services --
Social capacity building for environmental management related to transport sector: a broader perspective --
Development assistance to transportation in Asian developing countries.

Citation preview

Routledge Handbook of Transport in Asia

Asian transportation systems and services, as well as their usage, are fraught with challenges. This handbook therefore seeks to examine the possible solutions to the problems faced by the region. It illustrates the history of transportation development in Asia and provides a comprehensive overview of research on urban and intercity transport. Presenting an extensive literature review and detailed summaries of the major findings and methodologies, this book also offers suggestions for future research activities from top-level international researchers. Written from an interdisciplinary perspective, the topics covered include:     

Transportation systems across Asia; Traffic accidents; Air pollution; Land use and logistics; Transport governance.

Considering the population and economic development scale, as well as the diverse cultures of Asia, the Routledge Handbook of Transport in Asia will be a valuable resource for students and scholars of transportation, Asian development and Asian Studies in general. Junyi Zhang is a Professor at the Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, Japan. Cheng-Min Feng is a Professor at the Department of Transportation and Logistics Management,

National Chiao Tung University, Taiwan.

Routledge Handbook of Transport in Asia

Edited by Junyi Zhang and Cheng-Min Feng

First published 2018 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business Ó 2018 selection and editorial matter, Junyi Zhang and Cheng-Min Feng; individual chapters, the contributors The right of Junyi Zhang and Cheng-Min Feng to be identified as the authors of the editorial material, and of the authors for their individual chapters, has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Zhang, Junyi, 1966- author. | Feng, Zhengmin, 1954- author. Title: Routledge handbook of transport in Asia / edited by Junyi Zhang and Cheng-Min Feng. Other titles: Handbook of transport in Asia Description: New York, NY: Routledge, 2018. | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: LCCN 2017058203 | ISBN 9781138826014 (hardback) | ISBN 9781315739618 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Transportation–Asia. | Transportation demand management–Asia. | Transportation engineering–Asia. | Transportation accidents–Asia. Classification: LCC HE268.A2 R68 2018 | DDC 388.095–dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017058203 ISBN: 978-1-138-82601-4 (hbk) ISBN: 978-1-315-73961-8 (ebk) Typeset in Bembo by Sunrise Setting Ltd., Brixham, UK

Contents

List of figures List of tables List of boxes Notes on contributors 1 Introduction: transport in Asia Junyi Zhang and Cheng-Min Feng

xviii xxii xxiv xxv 1

1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Challenges in transportation development in Asia 2 1.2.1 Urbanization 2 1.2.2 A continuing car-dependent trend 3 1.2.3 Problematic development issues 4 1.2.4 Disexternalities of transportation development 5 1.2.5 Major issues of transportation infrastructure and services 5 1.2.6 Emerging threats and opportunities 5 1.3 Outline of the handbook 7 1.3.1 Differences from existing books 7 1.3.2 Part I: Transportation systems 7 1.3.3 Part II: Traffic accidents, air pollution, and disasters 15 1.3.4 Part III: Social exclusion and transport 18 1.3.5 Part IV: Land use and transport 18 1.3.6 Part V: Logistics 19 1.3.7 Part VI: Governance 20 1.4 Final remarks 21 PART 1

Transportation systems 2 High-speed railways in Asia Cheng-Min Feng, Jen-Jia Lin and Yun-Cheng Lai

25 27

v

Contents

2.1 Introduction 27 2.2 Developments 28 2.2.1 History and ways of development 2.2.2 Networks and operations 30 2.2.3 Passengers and performances 31 2.2.4 Socioeconomic impacts 32 2.2.5 Station area developments 34 2.3 Issues and challenges 38 2.4 Conclusions 40

28

3 The Asian Highway and Trans-Asian Railway networks: origins, progress of development and prospects in the future A.S.M. Abdul Quium 3.1 Background and the need for a regional land transport system in Asia 44 3.2 The initial phase of development of the AH and TAR networks (until early 1970s) 45 3.2.1 Asian Highway 45 3.2.2 Trans-Asian Railway 46 3.2.3 Loss of momentum of the progress of development 46 3.3 The Asian Land Transport Infrastructure Development (ALTID) project: a watershed in the history of development of the AH and TAR networks 47 3.4 Formalization of the AH and TAR networks 48 3.4.1 Asian Highway network 48 3.4.2 Trans-Asian Railway network 49 3.4.3 Mechanisms for managing the AH and TAR Agreements 50 3.5 Current status of development of the AH and TAR networks 50 3.5.1 Asian Highway 50 3.5.2 Trans-Asian Railway 51 3.6 Linking the AH and TAR networks: the development of an integrated intermodal transport system in Asia 52 3.7 Impact of the AH and TAR networks on overland trade and economic development, environmental and socio-political effects: literature review 52 3.8 Unlocking the development potentials created by AH and TAR networks: transforming transport corridors into economic corridors 55 3.9 Some major issues in further development of the AH and TAR networks and their integration through interfaces 55 3.10 Conclusions 57

vi

44

Contents

PART II

Traffic accidents, air pollution and disasters 4 Road traffic safety in Asia: an analysis based on DPSIR+C framework Ying Jiang and Junyi Zhang 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5

4.6 4.7

4.8 4.9

61 63

Introduction 63 The DPSIR+C framework for traffic safety research 63 Driving forces 64 Pressures 65 States: traffic accidents in Asia 68 4.5.1 General trends 68 4.5.2 Asia: special features 70 4.5.3 Traffic accidents in Japan: the first developed country in Asia 71 Impacts 73 Responses 77 4.7.1 Laws and institutions 77 4.7.2 Economic measures 81 4.7.3 Technological innovations 81 4.7.4 Education 83 4.7.5 Holistic approach 84 Capacity building 84 Conclusions and future research issues 86 4.9.1 Research on driving forces (D) 86 4.9.2 Research on pressures (P) 87 4.9.3 Research on states (S) 87 4.9.4 Research on impacts (I) 88 4.9.5 Research on responses (R) 89 4.9.6 Research on capacity (C) 89

5 Railway accidents Baohua Mao and Qi Xu

94

5.1 Railway accidents in Asia 94 5.2 Literature review on methodological issues 99 5.2.1 Selection of papers 99 5.2.2 General observations 103 5.2.3 Research on railway accidents 104 5.2.4 Research in safety of railway operations 107 5.3 A systematic framework in railway accident prevention 110 5.3.1 Prevention principles of accidents 110 5.3.2 Inherent safety 111

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5.3.3 Framework of railway accident prevention in China 113 5.4 Conclusions 114 6 Maritime accidents Meifeng Luo and Sung-Ho Shin

123

6.1 Background 123 6.1.1 What is a “maritime accident”? 124 6.1.2 Scope of maritime accidents 125 6.1.3 Classification of maritime accidents 126 6.1.4 Stakeholders in maritime accidents 126 6.2 Maritime accidents: a description of facts 126 6.2.1 General trend of maritime accidents 128 6.2.2 Regional distribution of maritime accidents 130 6.2.3 Number of accidents by type 130 6.2.4 The evolution of maritime accidents by vessel type 132 6.3 Existing research on maritime accidents 132 6.3.1 Common research methods 135 6.3.2 Descriptive methods 137 6.3.3 Statistical methods 137 6.3.4 Risk analysis methods 146 6.3.5 Other methods used in existing maritime accident studies 149 6.3.6 Major causes of accidents from existing studies 149 6.3.7 Preventative measures of maritime accidents from existing studies 150 6.4 Economic measures for reducing maritime accidents 152 6.4.1 Moral hazard 152 6.4.2 Optimal safety level 153 6.5 Conclusions 154 7 Air pollution and transport in China and India Lei Yu, Guohua Song and Xumei Chen 7.1 Sources and types of air pollution from transport 160 7.1.1 Air pollution and transportation emissions 160 7.1.2 Sources of air pollution from the transport system 161 7.1.3 Types of air pollution from the transport system 164 7.2 Emission standards and the regulatory environment 165 7.2.1 New vehicle and engine emission standards 165 7.2.2 Fuel quality standards 167 7.2.3 Vehicle compliance and enforcement programs 168 7.2.4 Emission labeling and low emission zone programs 170 viii

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7.2.5 Fuel efficiency and GHG programs 170 7.2.6 Alternative fuels and new energy vehicle policies 172 7.2.7 Standards and regulations for two-wheeled motors in India 174 7.3 Emission and air quality evaluation models 174 7.3.1 Techniques of emission data collection 174 7.3.2 Modeling of transport activities for emission estimation 178 7.3.3 Macroscopic emission model and its applications 181 7.3.4 Microscopic emission model and its applications 182 7.3.5 Traffic simulation and emission evaluation 183 7.3.6 Air quality model and its applications 184 7.4 Advanced transport strategies to reduce emissions 186 7.4.1 Travel demand management strategies 186 7.4.2 Optimization of traffic control and management 188 7.4.3 Applications and practices for emission reduction 189 7.5 Summary 197 8 Transportation in disasters: lessons learned from GEJE 2011 Makoto Okumura and Jinyoung Kim

202

8.1 Introduction 202 8.2 Damage and restoration of transportation facilities by the GEJE 202 8.2.1 Damage to transportation facilities 202 8.2.2 Losses of transportation capacity and resulting impacts 206 8.2.3 Stages in the restoration of transportation network capacity 207 8.2.4 Problems of stranded people in central metropolitan areas 209 8.3 Disaster induced transportation 214 8.3.1 Tsunami evacuation behavior and transportation problems 214 8.3.2 Humanitarian logistics 219 8.4 Recommendations 223 8.4.1 Transportation network planning 223 8.4.2 Planning of public facilities 223 8.4.3 Establishing a resilient information system 223 8.4.4 Multiple execution systems and paired administrations 224 8.4.5 The need for information sharing and coordination 224

ix

Contents

PART III

Social exclusion 9 Social exclusion and land passenger transport in Asia Janet Stanley

227 229

9.1 Social exclusion 229 9.1.1 The concept 229 9.1.2 Empirical research in social exclusion 230 9.2 Social exclusion in Asia 231 9.2.1 Use of social exclusion in Asian countries 231 9.2.2 Human development index 231 9.2.3 Transferability of social exclusion to Asian countries 232 9.3 Transport in Asian countries 233 9.4 Poverty reduction 234 9.5 The cost of road transport that targets growth 235 9.6 A deeper understanding of mobility and social inclusion 237 9.7 Outcomes sought for transport and social inclusion 238 9.8 Responding to the many challenges 239 10 Social exclusion and the place of urban passenger transport in developing Asian countries David Perez Barbosa, Janet Stanley and Junyi Zhang 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5

Background 243 Land use and transport 244 Transport patterns 245 Social exclusion in an urban setting 246 Transport and social exclusion 247 10.5.1 Low-income households 247 10.5.2 Children and youth 247 10.5.3 Women 248 10.5.4 Aged and disability 248 10.5.5 Recent migrants 248 10.5.6 Spatial isolation 248 10.6 Challenges to urban transport 249 10.6.1 The quality of transport 249 10.6.2 Affordable transit 249 10.6.3 Pollution, health and safety 250 10.6.4 Severing communities 250 10.6.5 Data collection needs 251 10.6.6 Funding 251 10.6.7 Institutional barriers 252 x

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10.7 Providing mobility for those at risk of social exclusion 252 10.7.1 Regulation and support for informal transport 253 10.7.2 The 20-minute city 254 10.8 Conclusion: inclusive mobility is possible 255 11 Social exclusion and transport in an aging and shrinking society Makoto Chikarashi, Janet Stanley, Akimasa Fujiwara and Junyi Zhang

261

11.1 Introduction 261 11.2 Transport-related social exclusion at different scales 263 11.2.1 National scale: population decline 264 11.2.2 Regional scale: car dependency 264 11.2.3 Neighborhood scale: weakened mutual assistance networks 265 11.2.4 Importance of having a multi-scale perspective 266 11.3 Cases in Japan 267 11.3.1 National scale 267 11.3.2 Regional scale: a case of Hiroshima 270 11.3.3 Neighborhood scale: a case of newtowns in Hiroshima 271 11.3.4 Brief summary 276 11.4 Some possible solutions 277 11.4.1 New thinking based on cross-domain benefits 277 11.4.2 Integrated approaches 278 11.4.3 Ensuring a minimum service level 278 11.4.4 Institutional design 279 11.5 Conclusions 280 PART IV

Land use

285

12 Ensen Kaihatsu (railway area developments) in Japan: a comparison with transit-oriented development (TOD) Mamoru Taniguchi

287

12.1 Introduction 287 12.2 History and case studies of Ensen Kaihatsu (EK) 287 12.2.1 The birth of EK: suburban housing development 288 12.2.2 Method: how to cover full activities of residents along railways to reap the benefits 288 12.2.3 How to form urban centers based on increased passengers 289 12.2.4 Incentives to create high-quality urban spaces 289 12.2.5 Effective use of infrastructure: reverse commuting 290 xi

Contents

12.3 EK under changing socioeconomic conditions 290 12.3.1 Decreasing population and changing travel behavior 290 12.3.2 Mega-development of urban cores 291 12.3.3 Renewal of suburban centers 291 12.3.4 From Ensen to Ekinaka 292 12.4 Re-thinking transit-oriented development 292 12.4.1 Problems: urban development without public transport, public transport project without urban development 293 12.4.2 Approach in the USA 293 12.4.3 Approach in Europe 293 12.4.4 New type of TOD based on land readjustment projects 294 12.5 Concluding remarks 294 13 Urban development along rails in other Asian regions Ming Zhang

296

13.1 Introduction 296 13.2 Rail transit technologies in Asian countries and regions 297 13.3 Transit Integrated Development (TID): the Asian approach 298 13.3.1 Terminology and concepts 298 13.3.2 The five-element TID framework 301 13.4 Exemplar cases of Asian TID 303 13.4.1 Transit joint development: the case of Taipei 303 13.4.2 Integrated “rail + property” development: the Hong Kong practice 305 13.4.3 New transit town: the Singapore model 308 13.5 Concluding remarks 311 14 An overview of Asian studies on transport and land use Hajime Seya and Harry Timmermans 14.1 Introduction 314 14.2 Empirical evidence: transport effects on land use and land prices 314 14.2.1 Effects of transport on land use: location choice and urban growth 315 14.2.2 Effects of transport on land and housing prices 317 14.3 Empirical evidence: effects of land use on transport 321 14.4 Applications of ILUT models 327 14.5 Outlook 330

xii

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Contents

PART V

Logistics

337

15 City logistics in Asia Eiichi Taniguchi and Ali Gul Qureshi

339

15.1 Introduction 339 15.2 The concept and characteristics of city logistics 339 15.3 Case studies in Asian cities 342 15.3.1 Japan 342 15.3.2 China 343 15.3.3 India 344 15.3.4 The Philippines 345 15.3.5 Thailand 346 15.4 Future perspectives 347 16 Railway freight transport and logistics Guo Quan Li, Bo Liang Lin and Hitoshi Tsunoda

352

16.1 Introduction 352 16.2 Basic characteristics of railway freight transport 353 16.2.1 Advantages of railway freight transport: ecology 353 16.2.2 Railway freight transport patterns 353 16.3 Modernization of railway freight transport for door-to-door intermodal logistics 355 16.3.1 Outline of railway container transport 355 16.3.2 Elements of railway container transport 356 16.3.3 International multimodal transport service based on railway container 358 16.4 Analysis approach to evaluate the effectiveness of freight railway 358 16.4.1 Outline of the analysis approach 359 16.4.2 Railway potentials in inter-regional surface freight transport 359 16.4.3 Railway container transport on major corridors and relevant evaluation procedure 360 16.4.4 Catchment areas of freight stations and their relationship with the analyzing target corridor 361 16.4.5 Criteria for judging the advantages of railway container in terms of transport cost 363 16.4.6 Effectiveness of railway container transport on the target railway corridor 363

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16.5 Optimal method for the yard-based railway freight transport system based on China’s railway network 365 16.5.1 Outline of China’s railway transport 365 16.5.2 The freight train connecting service problem 367 16.5.3 Optimization model of the TCS 370 16.5.4 Case study for China’s railway system 374 17 Air cargo transport and logistics in Hong Kong and Southern China Yulai Wan and Anming Zhang

378

17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4

Introduction 378 Air cargo traffic patterns in Hong Kong and Southern China 378 Hong Kong air cargo demand: the turning point of 2008 382 Post-2008 influential factors and challenges 386 17.4.1 Competition from container shipping 386 17.4.2 Reverse trend of globalization 387 17.4.3 Regulation and policy changes in China 388 17.4.4 Airport competition 390 17.5 Advantages of Hong Kong and emerging issues 395 17.6 Concluding remarks 398 18 Benchmarking, efficiency measurement, and productivity analysis for aviation sector in Asia Yuichiro Yoshida 18.1 Introduction 402 18.2 Methodologies of efficiency measurements and their applications to the aviation sector 403 18.2.1 Distance function approaches and DEA 403 18.2.2 Technological change: Malmquist index 404 18.2.3 Directional distance function approach with undesirable outputs 404 18.2.4 Stochastic frontier analysis 405 18.2.5 Index number approaches 406 18.3 A new development of benchmarking multi-stage production: network and dynamic productivity 407 18.3.1 Theoretical foundation: multi-stage production of air transport services 407 18.3.2 Efficiency benchmarking methodologies under the multi-stages of the production process 408 18.3.3 Application of the dynamic efficiency measurement methodology in the Japanese aviation market 413 18.4 Conclusions 414

xiv

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Contents

PART VI

Governance

419

19 Financing mechanisms for transport infrastructure and services Hideaki Iwasaki

421

19.1 Key concepts and ideas about financing mechanisms 421 19.1.1 The nature of transport infrastructure and services 421 19.1.2 Economic terms 422 19.2 Financing mechanisms 423 19.2.1 Sources of funds 424 19.2.2 Institutional arrangements 426 19.2.3 Financing methods 428 19.3 Representative cases 430 19.3.1 Roads 430 19.3.2 Ports and airports 437 19.3.3 Urban railways 439 19.4 Emerging needs and issues in financing transport infrastructure 440 19.4.1 Importance of transport system integration in the era of PPP 441 19.4.2 Institutional design for sustainable transport development in the face of rapid urbanization 441 19.4.3 Optimal balancing of sources of funds: future of road financing through user-pays principle 442 20 Social capacity building for environmental management related to transport sector: a broader perspective Junyi Zhang

446

20.1 Introduction 446 20.1.1 General background 446 20.1.2 Transport sector 447 20.1.3 Objectives 448 20.2 Capacity 449 20.2.1 Roles of actors 449 20.2.2 Government capacity 450 20.2.3 Firm capacity 451 20.2.4 Capacity of civil society 451 20.2.5 Social capacity 452 20.2.6 Capacity issues in transport sector 453

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20.3 Social capacity for environmental management: an improved definition 454 20.4 Existing measurement frameworks 457 20.4.1 DPSIR framework 457 20.4.2 IAD framework 458 20.4.3 System approach 459 20.5 Existing indicator systems 460 20.5.1 Indicator systems at the national level 460 20.5.2 Indicator systems at the city level 462 20.6 Development of the DPSIR+C framework 463 20.6.1 An improved framework 463 20.6.2 Indicator system for SCEM 464 20.7 Empirical analysis of social capacity building for environmental management related to transport sector 466 20.7.1 Methodology 467 20.7.2 A case study at the national level 468 20.7.3 A case study at the city level: effects of social capacity at national level on urban air quality management 471 20.7.4 A case study at the individual level: an attitude-based analysis 479 20.8 Conclusions and future research issues 488 21 Development assistance to transportation in Asian developing countries Hironori Kato 21.1 Introduction 495 21.2 Historical background of development assistance in Asia 496 21.2.1 Poverty and economic growth in Asia 496 21.2.2 General history of development assistance to the transportation sector 498 21.2.3 History of aid policy in Asia: the case of Japan’s ODA 499 21.2.4 Development assistance to the transportation sector in Asia 501 21.3 Direct effects of aid to transportation 503 21.3.1 Transportation problems in Asia 503 21.3.2 Solutions to transportation-related problems in Asian developing countries 504 21.4 Indirect effects of aid to transportation 506 21.4.1 Transportation investment and indirect impacts 506 21.4.2 Aid to transportation infrastructure investment and economic growth 508

xvi

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Contents

21.5 Challenges of development assistance in Asian transportation market 509 21.5.1 Changes in strategies of development assistance in Asia 509 21.5.2 Development assistance incorporating unique characteristics in the Asian transportation market Index

510 521

xvii

Figures

1.1 1.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8

Transportation systems Mobility systems Length of Shinkansen network (km) Decision-making process for urban development in Japan New town approach for sub/exurban HSR stations areas in Taiwan DPSIR+C framework Asia population history (1955–2017) and forecast (2020–2050) Growth rates of GDP per capita in Asian countries Sales of motor vehicles in selected Asian countries/regions (2005–2016) Deaths by road user type in South-East Asian region Traffic accidents in Japan (1966–2015) Trends in the number of traffic fatalities by age group Trends in traffic accidents, fatality and injuries, licensed drivers, vehicle ownership, vehicle kilometers traveled (1966–2014) in Japan 5.1 Key facts on railway transportation by region 5.2 Train accidents by type of cause 5.3 Number of selected papers by year 5.4 Number of selected papers by country/region 5.5 Four levels of safety management system in China 5.6 Safety management system of China Railway Corporation 6.1 World shipping accidents and the percentage in Asia from 1978 to 2015 6.2 Unwanted events in the maritime field 6.3 Different kinds of ship collisions 6.4 Maritime accident related organizations, marine industries, government, and individuals 6.5 Global distribution of maritime accident locations (1978–2013) 6.6 Heat-map for the seasonality of maritime accidents over time (1978–2013) 6.7 Distribution of maritime casualties by region in 2013 6.8 The number of maritime accidents by top five regions over time (1978–2013) 6.9 The number of maritime accidents of the top five regions by vessel type (1978–2013) 6.10 The evolution of accident types over time (1978–2013) 6.11 Distribution of accident types by region xviii

2 3 28 35 36 64 66 67 67 70 71 72 74 95 96 102 103 113 114 124 125 129 130 131 132 133 134 134 134 135

Figures

6.12 6.13 6.14 6.15 6.16 6.17 6.18 6.19 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.10

Number of accidents by vessel type from 1978 to 2013 The number of accidents by vessel type and causes over time (1978–2013) Three categories of maritime accident methodology A plot of the normal and exponential cumulative distribution functions The censored normal distribution by y*#0 Poisson distribution with different parameter values Illustration of moral hazard Optimal level of safety Remote sensing used in transportation PEMS is used to assess mobile source emissions in China The PEMS of Beijing Jiaotong University VSP distributions on expressways GIS-based dynamic emission data GIS-based emission estimations in China The comparison of the speed of MTC and ETC The energy consumption index comparison of ETC and MTC The different traffic congestion hourly pollutant emissions Based on the distribution regularity of traffic index of CO2 emissions factor 8.1 Effects of the tsunami caused by the drop in transportation 8.2 Progress of transportation-related recovery. 8.3 Information and transportation flows in the official relief goods delivery system 9.1 HDI and inequality-adjusted HDI for Asian countries/regions for years 2012 and 2013 9.2 GDP per capita, car ownership per 100 people in Asian countries/regions, 2011 11.1 Population changes from 1950 to 2100 11.2 Changes in population aging rate from 1950 to 2100 11.3 Population change from 2005 to 2010 in Japan 11.4 Population and financial capability index 11.5 Changes in old-age dependency ratio in Japanese and Korean metropolitan areas from 2000 to 2014 11.6 Population aging rate and financial capability index 11.7 Public transport accessibility versus car accessibility in Hiroshima 11.8 Spatial distribution of accessibility differences in Hiroshima 11.9 Relationship between population aging rate and accessibility in Hiroshima 11.10 The relationship between elders’ average number of trips per day and accessibility in Hiroshima 11.11 Grid-level (50 m2) travel time by travel mode in Koyo newtown 11.12 Between- and within-zone travel times in neighborhoods 12.1 Site of the former platform of Hankyu Umeda Station 12.2 Model of the district surrounding Shibuya Station when finished 12.3 Abeno Harukas 12.4 Tsukuba Express Station constructed using an integrated specific land readjustment project (Kenkyu-gakuen Station) 13.1 Organizational structure of transit joint development, Taipei

135 136 136 143 144 145 152 153 175 176 177 180 190 191 193 193 195 196 207 209 220 232 234 262 263 268 268 269 270 271 272 272 273 274 275 289 291 292 294 304 xix

Figures

13.2 13.3 13.4 13.5 14.1 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 16.10 16.11 16.12 16.13 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.5 19.6 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.8 20.9 xx

Taipei main station Tsing Yi Station, Hong Kong MRT network in the 2001 Singapore Concept Plan Bishan station, Singapore Population density of northern Bangladesh in 2010 Railway freight transport patterns Container-based railway transport for door-to-door intermodal freight Procedure for evaluating the effectiveness of railway container transport Regional average distributions of the catchment areas of freight stations or terminals for dispatched freight shipped by manufacturers Railway transport network as case analysis Criteria for judging to what extent railway freight transport is advantageous Distribution by zone of freight collection at one terminal in case study Distribution by zone of freight collection along the target railway corridor at one terminal in case study Effectiveness of railway container transport along the line examined by the case study The delivering process for one shipment A simple line network consisting of four yards Ten combinations for routing shipments on potential train connections Example railway network and merge process Hong Kong air-borne trade: 2000 vs. 2014 Air-borne trade imbalance based on value with major trading partners Air-borne trade imbalance based on tonnage Air cargo throughput of Shanghai (PVG+SHA), Guangzhou and Hong Kong Hong Kong total container throughput (2000–2015) HHI of PRD airports (2000–2015) Market shifts of Hong Kong and Guangzhou airports over time Top 30 cargo airports in Mainland China (market share vs. growth) Schematic diagram of transport infrastructure financing mechanism Schematic presentation of changes in financing mechanism for class II roads Schematic diagram of toll roads PPP under India’s National Highways Development Project Financing scheme of Northern Luzon Expressway Project Financing scheme of Mactan Cebu Passenger Terminal Project Financing scheme of Manila MRT Line 3 Conceptual framework of social capacity The DPSIR framework for environmental management DPSIR+C framework: an example of air quality management Structure of the indicator system for measuring SCEM Standardized estimation results of DPSIR+C model at the national level Social capacity indicators for the target nations/regions Estimation results of social capacity evaluation model (SEM model) Distribution of social capacity indicators Relationship between capacity level and development stage

305 307 309 310 316 354 355 361 362 362 363 365 366 366 368 368 369 374 380 381 382 383 387 392 393 394 424 432 434 436 438 440 455 457 464 465 470 472 475 477 478

Figures

20.10 Distribution of occupations in the survey 20.11 Evaluations of expectation, performance, and change during the last 5 years in Beijing 20.12 Perceived performance and future expectation 20.13 Estimation results of evaluation model of civil society 21.1 Number of poor and poverty headcount ratio from 1981 to 2012 21.2 Poverty headcount ratio at PPP$1.90 and PPP$3.10 a day by country in the year 2011 21.3 Annual growth of average consumption or income by country from 2005 to 2011 21.4 Aid to Asian transportation from 1957 to 2014 by donor 21.5 Percentage of aid to Asian transportation from 1957 to 2014 by infrastructure type

481 481 482 486 496 497 497 502 502

xxi

Tables

1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4

Books on transport in Asia, published since 2000 BRT in the world BRT in Asia Numbers of civil airliner accidents and fatalities by continent since 1945 Summary of present HSR networks and operations Summary of HSR passengers and performances Reviewed impact studies of HSR Correlation coefficients to the average yearly increase of building floor area 3.1 Salient features of the Asian Highway network 4.1 Sales of motor vehicles in selected Asian countries/regions in 2005 and 2016 4.2 Top ten countries in Asia in terms of traffic fatalities 4.3 Dashboard of UNESCAP road safety indicators of 24 Asian countries based on Global Status Report (2015) 4.4 Risk factors legislations in 24 Asian countries 5.1 Statistics on railway transportation in some Asia-Pacific countries 5.2 List of railway accidents in China from 2000 to 2016 5.3 List of railway accidents in Japan from 2000 to 2016 5.4 List of railway accidents in South Korea from 2000 to 2016 5.5 List of railway accidents in India from 2000 to 2016 5.6 List of railway accidents in Pakistan from 2000 to 2016 5.7 List of railway accidents in Southeast Asia from 2000 to 2016 5.8 List of railway accidents in Oceania from 2000 to 2016 5.9 Number of papers by journal, 2000–2016 5.10 Number of journals, authors, and papers published during 2000–2016 6.1 Classification and description of maritime accidents 6.2 Previous studies of maritime accidents that employed regression model and data 6.3 Previous studies of the maritime domain that employed the Bayesian Network (BN) 8.1 Damage to transportation, power, and communication networks caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami 8.2 Comparison of the recovery time for major transportation facilities 8.3 Damage to the transportation sector and the state of recovery four months later xxii

8 14 14 16 31 32 33 38 49 68 69 75 78 96 97 97 97 98 100 100 101 102 103 127 139 147 204 210 211

Tables

8.4 8.5 8.6 13.1 13.2 14.1 14.2 14.3 16.1 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.9 17.10 17.11 17.12 17.13 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.6 20.7

Comparison of evacuation actions of survivors and non-survivors Suggested reasons for non-survivors’ action (multiple answers) Comparison of evacuation trips by location Metro systems in Asian cities (not including Japan) Hong Kong MTRC operating costs and profits Asian studies on transit impacts on land and housing prices Asian studies on built environment and travel behavior Application studies of ILUT models in Asia The results of optimization computation and comparison analysis between the optimum and existing strategies Top ten re-export destinations of Hong Kong Major variables and data sources of Lo, Wan and Zhang (2015) estimations Price and income elasticities: pre- vs. post-2008 and all periods pooled Number of “red” trade protection measures imposed on China Examples of Sino-foreign air cargo joint ventures Global integrators hubbing in China Market shifts among PRD airports (2001–2015) Market shift correlation among PRD airports Freighter routes from Hong Kong to cities in Mainland China Freighter routes from Guangzhou to other cities in Mainland China Top ten freighter operators in HKG in 2012 based on available payloads Top ten freighter operators in CAN in 2012 based on available payloads Traffic share within Hactl and CPCT in 2014 Structure of the Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) Variables for examining the DPSIR+C framework at the national level Indicators used for measuring the social capacity Standardized total effects calculated from structural equation model Perceived impacts of air pollution and its relieving policies Current situations and future expectations related to social capacity Standardized total effects

216 217 218 299 308 319 323 328 376 381 384 385 388 390 391 392 393 396 396 397 397 398 466 469 473 476 482 483 487

xxiii

Boxes

3.1 3.2 3.3

xxiv

Criteria for including specific links into AH and TAR networks Some major benefits of the Asian Highway Agreement Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC)

47 49 56

Contributors

Xumei Chen is a professor of the School of Traffic and Transportation at Beijing Jiaotong

University, China. She was a visiting scholar at Texas Southern University and the University of Waterloo. She has extensive experience on urban transportation planning, emission modeling, and transit operations analysis. She has been a principal investigator or a co-investigator for more than 35 projects. She has published over 90 peer-reviewed papers and won five national patents of inventions. She is a member of the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE), the Transportation Research Board (TRB), and a number of other professional organizations. Makoto Chikarashi is an associate professor of the Graduate School of International Development and Cooperation at Hiroshima University, Japan. His main research interests include understanding and modeling of activity-travel behavior, mathematical modeling of urban systems, and the relevant policy analyses with a particular focus on environmental and social risk management. His current research focuses on the evaluation of the impacts of shared and/or automated vehicles on activity and travel behavior in disadvantaged areas, theoretical and empirical investigations on the value of mobility, and the implications of social network on travelers’ collective decision-making. Cheng-Min Feng is a professor of the Department of Transportation and Logistics Management

at National Chiao Tung University in Taiwan. He is the former President of Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies (EASTS), the former Chair of the Chinese Institute of Transportation, the former Chair of the Taiwan Institute of Urban Planning, and the former Chair of the Chinese Regional Science Association, Taiwan. Dr. Feng received his Ph.D. from the University of Northwestern, Illinois. He specializes in transportation and logistics, transportation planning and management, urban and regional analysis, project evaluation and decision making. Akimasa Fujiwara is a professor of the Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation at Hiroshima University, Japan. His research interests cover a range of traffic and transport related studies including transportation planning and policy evaluation, activity-based travel demand modeling, sustainable urban and regional development, and evaluation/design of innovative urban and transportation policies. He is the former chair of the International Scientific Committee, Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies (EASTS). He has authored more than 300 papers. He has been awarded 16 paper prizes including the Best Paper Prize of EASTS’2005. He serves as the principal investigator of a large-scale joint research project on “Measuring value of mobility in the age of quality transport” from 2017 to 2019. Hideaki Iwasaki is currently ADB’s Country Director for Thailand. He has more than 25 years’

work experience in the transport sector in Japan and in developing Asia. He worked for the xxv

Contributors

Government of Japan for 12 years, primarily with its road administration, and has been with ADB for 15 years since 2002. During 2013–2017, he headed ADB’s Transport and Communications Division for Southeast Asia, managing ADB’s sector operations in rapidly developing economies in the region. His work experience also covers countries in South Asia. He has bachelor’s and master’s degrees in urban planning from the University of Tokyo, Japan, and a master’s degree in transportation engineering from the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, USA. Ying Jiang is currently a post-doctoral research associate at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, USA at the time of publication of this handbook. Before that, she was a post-doctoral researcher at the Mobilities and Urban Policy Lab, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, Japan, where she received a doctoral degree in engineering. Her research fields cover traffic engineering, traffic safety, driving behavior, ITS, urban and transportation planning. In particular, she has contributed to literature in terms of human behavior research in driving safety and ITS. The 21st World Congress of Intelligent Transport System (Detroit, USA, September 7–11, 2014) awarded her the Best Scientific Paper Award for her research. Her current research mainly focuses on autonomous vehicles and their impacts on people’s lives and the society, in addition to driving safety. Hironori Kato is a professor of the Department of Civil Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Japan. He obtained his doctoral degree in 1999 from The University of Tokyo. His main research and teaching concerns are transportation planning and policy, transportation economics, transportation finance, and travel behavioral analysis. Recently, he has been tackling international transportation and transportation in developing world, mainly in Asia. He used to teach at the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT), Thailand. Since 2016, he has been serving as a co-director of the Master Program in Infrastructure Engineering, Vietnam Japan University (VJU) at Hanoi, Vietnam. Jinyoung Kim has been a researcher at the Transportation System Studies Laboratory Co., Ltd.

since 2015, after her two-year career as an assistant professor of Disaster Area Support Laboratory at the International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Japan. She received a doctoral degree in engineering from Kyoto University, Japan. Her specialty includes traffic safety engineering, traffic time series analysis, and traffic simulation, which was applied to Tsunami evacuation models for the towns affected by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake disaster. Yun-Cheng Lai, also known as Rex, is an associate professor at the Railway Technology Research Center and Department of Civil Engineering of National Taiwan University. His main research interests include railway operation management, capacity planning, and railway safety. He is the associate editor for the Journal of Rail Transport Planning & Management, and the Chair of the academic committee for the Railway Engineering Society of Taiwan (RESOT). He also served as the Chair of the Railroad Operating Technologies Committee (AR030) at the US Transportation Research Board (TRB) from 2010 to 2016. Guo Quan Li is a chief researcher of the Railway Technical Research Institute, Japan. His main research fields include rail transportation, freight transport and logistics, transport informatics & freight-GIS, transport infrastructure planning & policy, and issues of laws, acts, and regulations concerning transport. In recent years, he has published more than 100 academic and practical xxvi

Contributors

papers in the Journal of EASTS, Journal of Railway Engineering, International Journal of Logistics, and Transport Policy Review, etc. He won the Best Paper Award from the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies (EASTS) in 1997 and the Award of Railway Freight Transportation Committee in Japan in 2012. He has also edited and co-edited some chapters in Chinese books such as Concise Textbook of Modern Management Approaches, Theory and Approach of Transport System Analytics, Infrastructure Planning, and Roles of State and Roles of Market, etc. Bo Liang Lin is a professor of Beijing Jiaotong University, China. His main research field is transportation planning and management, including railway operation management, transportation network design, network flow techniques, transportation and logistics, and intelligent transportation system. He has published many articles in journals such as Transportation Research Part B, Plos One, and Journal of the China Railway Society and China Railway Science, etc. Jen-Jia Lin is a professor of the Department of Geography at National Taiwan University. He is a transport geographer who specializes in transport and land use interactions, social dimensions of transport studies, and urban and regional developments. His works can be found in urban and transport research journals. He is currently serving as a Councilor of The Pacific Regional Science Conference Organization and a member of the Standing Committee on Transportation in the Developing Countries (ABE90) of the US Transportation Research Board (TRB). Meifeng Luo is an associate professor of the Department of Logistics and Maritime Studies at

The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, China. He earned an MSc. degree in Maritime Administration and Environmental Protection from the World Maritime University, Sweden, an MSc. in Computer Science, and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Rhode Island, USA. He is the director of the IMC-Frank Tsao Maritime Library and Research & Development Centre, and an Associate Editor of Maritime Policy and Management. His research areas include maritime economics, environment, policy and management, market analysis and modelling for ports and shipping. Baohua Mao is a professor and the director of the Department of Urban Rail Transit and

the Integrated Transportation Research Center of China at Beijing Jiaotong University, China. He is the Deputy Secretary-General of the Systems Engineering Society of China (SESC), and a senior member of the National Technical Committee of Urban Transportation Standardization (SAC/TC529), and a senior member of the China Association of Metros. He holds Ph.D. and M.E. degrees in Transportation Engineering from Beijing Jiaotong University, and a B.E. degree from Central South University. His works have received numerous awards, including the Second Class Prize for the National Natural Science Awards (2015) for his contributions to the studies on urban traffic congestion mitigations and the Mao Yi-Sheng China Railway Science and Technology Award (2006) for his contributions to the studies on urban transit energy consumption assessment. His current research activities focus on three major areas: integrated transportation systems planning, urban rail transit operation and management, and sustainable freight policy. Makoto Okumura is a professor in the Disaster Area Support Laboratory at the International

Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Japan. He is an expert on mathematical models for facility and transportation planning, and socio-economic analysis of regions before and after disasters. He has been involved in various field surveys and international collaborative research projects in Brazil, Bolivia, and Siberia in Russia, since 2001. His research xxvii

Contributors

topics include evacuation decision-making, land-use models with flood risk cognition, seismic proof planning model for road network and medical centers. He has been serving as the vice chairperson of the Editorial Board of Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers since 2016, and the vice chairperson of the Tohoku Branch of the City Planning Institute Japan since 2011. David Perez Barbosa is a member of the research and education staff at the Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC), Hiroshima University at the time of publication of this handbook. He received a doctoral degree in engineering from IDEC in 2017 with the thesis title “Transport-based Social Exclusion and its Implications for Urban Policy”. His topics of interest include bicycle commuting, non-motorized transport, urban planning, traffic calming and road safety, travel behavior and modal choice, travel behavior and health related quality of life, design of traffic signs and traffic control devices. Ali Gul Qureshi is an associate professor of the Department of Urban Management at Kyoto University, Japan. His basic education is in civil engineering with specializations in transportation engineering, logistics and operations research. His research interests are related to exact and heuristics optimization of different variants of vehicle routing and facility location problems, and their integration in different frameworks such as multi-agent systems, and their application in evaluation of city logistics measures. He regularly contributes high-quality research papers in leading international and regional (Asia-Pacific) journals and in peer-reviewed conferences related to his areas of research. He was awarded the Best Paper Award by the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies (EASTS) in 2011. A.S.M. Abdul Quium currently works as an independent consultant. Formerly, he was a professor at the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka and an official of the Transport Division of UN ESCAP, Bangkok. He also had a short stint as a Visiting Professor at Hiroshima University, Japan. He has over 35 years of work experience in Bangladesh, USA, Thailand, and Japan in teaching, research, and consultation works, and as an international civil servant. His areas of interest include public policy analysis, socio-economic impacts of transport development, transportation planning and regional development, and infrastructure development. Hajime Seya is an associate professor at the Departments of Civil Engineering, Graduate School

of Engineering, Faculty of Engineering at Kobe University, Japan. He received his Ph.D. in engineering from the University of Tsukuba, Japan. He has mainly worked on spatial statistics/ econometrics. His current research interests include urban policy evaluation, spatial big data analysis, and integrated land-use-transport modeling. He is an assistant editor of the journal Asian Transport Studies (ATS), Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies (EASTS). Sung-Ho Shin is a doctoral candidate at the Department of Logistics and Maritime Studies and a

research associate at the IMC-Frank Tsao Maritime Library and Research & Development Centre, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, China. He has research experience in various government projects at the Korea Maritime Institute, which is a Korean government think tank specializing in shipping, ports, and marine issues in Korea. His research interests are mainly in port studies, shipping accidents, and risk analysis in maritime logistics. Guohua Song is a professor of the School of Traffic and Transportation at Beijing Jiaotong University, China. He has served as a principal investigator for over 20 transportation emission xxviii

Contributors

projects funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Environmental Protection, and the Beijing Environmental Protection Bureau. He has published over 50 papers in Transportation Research Part D, ASCE’s Journal of Transportation Engineering, Science of The Total Environment, Transportation Research Record, IET Journal of Intelligent Transport Systems, etc. He serves as a committee member of the Standing Committee of Transportation and Air Quality (ADC20) of the US Transportation Research Board (TRB). Janet Stanley is an associate professor and a principal research fellow at the Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute, Faculty of Design, University of Melbourne, Australia. Janet is a director of the National Centre for Research in Bushfire & Arson and a director of Stanley & Co., consultants in sustainable policy. Originally specializing in child protection and family violence, Janet now focuses on the interface between social, environmental and economic issues across policy, system design, and at community levels. Janet is particularly specialized in social inclusion, transport, climate change and equity and bushfire arson. Janet has 80 refereed publications, including five authored and edited books. Eiichi Taniguchi is Professor Emeritus of Transport and Logistics at the Resilience Research Unit

in Kyoto University, Japan. His research centers on city logistics and urban freight transport modelling focusing on stochastic and dynamic vehicle routing and scheduling with time windows, multi-agent simulation considering behavior of stakeholders involved in urban freight transport. Recently, his research has covered health and security issues including humanitarian logistics after catastrophic disasters and home health care problems in an aging society. He has published more than 200 academic papers and ten books. He was awarded the best paper award by the Japan Society of Civil Engineers in 2000 as well as by the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies (EASTS) in 1999 and 2011. Mamoru Taniguchi is a professor of the Faculty of Engineering, Information and Systems, Division of Policy and Planning Sciences at the University of Tsukuba, Japan. He graduated from Kyoto University, and worked at Kyoto University, University of California at Berkeley, Okayama University, Norwegian Institute of Urban and Regional Research, and the University of Wales. His research focus is on land-use, transportation, and environmental planning. He is the author of Introduction of City Planning (Tokyo: Morikita 2014), one of the most popular textbooks in Japan. He also serves as a member of the following international and domestic committees: International Federation for Housing and Planning (Councilor), City Planning Institute of Japan (Chair of Academic Committee), Japanese National Council for Infrastructure, and Japanese National Land Council, etc. Harry Timmermans is Head of the Urban Planning Group of the Eindhoven University of Technology, the Netherlands. He has research interests in modeling decision-making processes and decision support systems in a variety of application domains, including transportation. His main current research project is concerned with the development of a dynamic model of activitytravel behavior. He is editor of the Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, and serves on the board of several other journals in transportation, geography, urban planning, marketing, artificial intelligence and other disciplines. He was Co-chair of the International Association of Travel Behavior Research (IATBR), and is serving as a member of several scientific committees of the Transportation Research Board. He has also served as a member of conference committees in transportation and artificial intelligence. He is (co)-author of more than 500 refereed articles in international journals. xxix

Contributors

Hitoshi Tsunoda is an acting manager of the Investment Planning Office, Corporate Planning

Department, Management Headquarters, Japan Freight Railway Company (JR Freight). He joined Japan Freight Railway Company in 1989, and became an acting director of the above Investment Planning Office in 2006. His major is transport infrastructure planning and investment planning. He is a member of the Japan Society of Civil Engineering (JSCE), the Japan Railway Engineers’ Association (JREA), and the Japan Railway Civil Engineering Association ( JRCEA). He has presented many articles in the relevant societies and associations. Yulai Wan is an assistant professor of the Department of Logistics and Maritime Studies at The

Hong Kong Polytechnic University. She received her MPhil degree in Operations Management from The Chinese University of Hong Kong, and a PhD degree specializing in transportation and logistics from the Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Canada. Her research covers various economics and policy issues in air transport and seaport industries, such as infrastructure pricing and investment, modal competition and cooperation, and regulation. Dr. Wan received the 2014–2015 Early Career Award from the University Grants Committee, Hong Kong SAR. Qi Xu is an assistant professor in the Department of Urban Rail Transit at Beijing Jiaotong University, China. He received his doctoral (2014) and B.E. degrees (2005) in Transportation Engineering from Beijing Jiaotong University, China, followed by postdoctoral research at the University of Nevada at Reno, USA, in 2015. Dr. Xu’s unique background is that his research has been application-oriented, focusing on solving real-world transportation problems, and that he had three years of experience working in the Guangzhou Metro Corporation. His involvement in research and consulting projects is extensive, ranging from self-organized pedestrian crowd dynamics in transportation systems, to the structure and dynamics of transportation networks, to regional integrated transportation systems management, and to urban transit operation and management. His primary research interests include traffic simulation, spatial econometrics, and complex networks. He has published 25 academic papers. Yuichiro Yoshida is a professor of the Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC), Hiroshima University, Japan. Before joining IDEC, he was an associate professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Japan. His research fields cover economics, economic policy, and social sciences. He is specialized in transportation economics. Major topics include economic modeling of public policy and productive efficiency of social infrastructure in the context of transportation study in Central and South Asia. He received his Ph.D. in economics and his M.A. in economics from Boston College USA, and a Master of Economics from Keio University, Japan. Lei Yu is a tenured professor in the Department of Transportation Studies at Texas Southern University, USA, and Yantze River Scholar in transportation planning and management at Beijing Jiaotong University, China. His research interests include vehicle emission measurement and modeling, ITS related technologies and applications, and traffic control and management. Dr. Yu received his Ph.D. degree in Civil/Transportation Systems Engineering from Queen’s University (Canada), his M.S. Degree in Production and Systems Engineering from Nagoya Institute of Technology (Japan), and his Bachelor of Engineering Degree in Railway Transportation Management Engineering from Beijing Jiaotong University (China).

xxx

Contributors

Anming Zhang is a Full Professor in Operations and Logistics and holds the Vancouver International Airport Authority Chair Professor in Air Transportation at the Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia (UBC). He served as the Head of the Operations and Logistics Division, Sauder School of Business (2003–2005), and as the Director of UBC’s Centre for Transport Studies (2003–2004). He is the recipient of the “Yokohama Special Prize for Outstanding Young Researcher” awarded at the 7th World Conference on Transportation Research (WCTR) in Sydney, Australia in 1995, and of the “WCTR-Society Prize”, awarded to the overall best paper of the 8th WCTR in Antwerp, Belgium, in 1998. In June 2014, he won the “Best Overall Paper Prize” at the annual ITEA (International Transport Economics Association) Conference on Transportation Economics, Toulouse School of Economics, France. He has published about 150 refereed journal papers in the areas of transportation, logistics, industrial organization, and the Chinese economy. He has co-authored two recent books: Globalization and Strategic Alliances: The Case of the Airline Industry, 2000; and Air Cargo in Mainland China and Hong Kong, 2004 (Chinese editions published in both Hong Kong and Mainland China). Junyi Zhang is a professor of the Graduate School for International Development and

Cooperation at Hiroshima University in Japan. He is the former Editor-in-chief of the journal Asian Transport Studies (ATS), Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies (EASTS). He serves as a board member of the International Association for Travel Behaviour Research (IATBR) and is a member of US Transportation Research Board (TRB) Committee on Traveler Behavior and Values (ADB10). His research fields include urban and regional planning, transportation planning and engineering, environmental and energy policy, tourism policy, and human behavior research. He has published more than 370 refereed papers, including in the journals Accident Analysis and Prevention, Annals of Tourism Research, Climate Change, Energy, Energy Policy, Environmental Planning B, ASCE’s Journal of Transportation Engineering, Journal of Transport Geography, Natural Hazards, Journal of Sustainable Tourism, Tourism Management, Transportation Research Part A/B/D, Transportation, Transportmetrica, and Transportation Research Record, etc. He has also been serving as a reviewer for more than 20 SCI/SSCI journals for years. Ming Zhang is a professor of Community & Regional Planning at the University of Texas (UT) at Austin and a director of the US DOT University Transportation Center of Cooperative Mobility for Competitive Megaregions. His research and teaching interests include urban and regional planning (transportation), the built environment-travel behavior relationship, GIS applications, and planning/transportation issues in developing countries. Prior to joining UT Austin, he held several academic and professional positions, including tenure-track Assistant Professor in the Department of Landscape Architecture & Urban Planning at Texas A&M University, Research Scientist at the Rockefeller Institute of Government in Albany, New York, and Lecturer and licensed Planner/Architect at the Huazhong (Central China) University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, China. He received his B.E. (Architecture) and M.E. (Urban Planning and Design) from Tsinghua University, Beijing and M.S. (Transportation) and Ph.D. (Urban and Regional Planning) from MIT.

xxxi

1 Introduction Transport in Asia Junyi Zhang and Cheng-Min Feng

1.1 Introduction Transportation takes place in response to various needs in life at the micro level and economic activities at the macro level, regardless of location: Asia, Africa, America, or Europe. Nevertheless, this handbook focuses on Asia. Considering the population and economic development scale of Asia, this focus also has important implications for transportation development in other parts of the world. Even though there are various issues in cities (e.g., a lack of fresh air and water, monotone and heartless streetscapes, unhealthy human relationships because of the gift principle, collapse of communities owing to a lack of attachment), many people still think that living/working in cities is better than living/working in rural areas. It is true that people working in cities can typically earn more money than those in rural areas; however, having more money does not necessarily make people happier and/or more satisfied with their lives because people who have more money usually have higher expectations for their lives than others. Nevertheless, the concentration of population in cities has not seen any sign of stopping. As long as people believe in the future of cities, they will continue to grow and impose increasing burdens on transportation systems. Transportation systems exist for cultural–social and economic systems (Figure 1.1). Therefore, solutions to transportation issues require efforts from these perspectives. If population size is a key factor to resolve the current traffic problems, then it should be part of the policy agenda regarding how to encourage more people to move from large-sized cities to small/medium-sized cities or rural areas. If transporting goods across a long distance causes serious energy and environmental issues, it should be logical policy to encourage more people to purchase goods produced in local areas. If excessive car dependence, as a kind of lifestyle, is the most crucial factor in determining current traffic problems, pricing-based measures should be taken, no matter how strong the objections from car users and automakers. If mobility issues among the elderly cannot be resolved at the community level, more policies and investments should focus on traditional family-based caring systems, i.e., allowing more people to take care of their parents at home. Transportation supply and demand are associated with populations, human activities, land use, and services, where two-way relationships may be applicable to any pair of these elements over a long period. All of these further consume various natural and man-made resources, resulting in environmental emissions and damage to the ecosystem. Thus, transportation issues are closely related to resource issues. 1

Zhang and Feng

Population

C

u ral

ste & s o cial s y

Resources Transport Demand

Land Use

m

Figure 1.1

Human Activities

nomic system Eco

lt u

Transport Supply

Services

Transportation systems

However, the supply of transportation systems has limitations because of limited urban spaces, natural resources, and financial capital, etc. In this sense, policy makers need to have a better understanding of transportation demand for meeting the supply capacity. Generally speaking, transportation is part of the concept of mobility (Urry, 2000; Leary, 2014). However, transportation researchers have narrowly treated the concept of mobility as the ability of the individual to travel (e.g., Chikaraishi, 2017). Fortunately, in recent years, a clear shift of this concept to indicate changes in life domains (including travel behavior) (e.g., Zhang, 2014; Scheiner, 2017) or more general movement of not only people, but also things, information, and ideas, has been observed (e.g., Urry, 2000). The journal Mobilities,1 founded in 2006, defines mobility as “the large-scale movements of people, objects, capital, and information across the world, as well as more local processes of daily transportation, movement through public and private space and the travel of material objects in everyday life.” Figure 1.2 conceptually presents the general scope of mobilities across space and over time, where transportation connects all four major mobility domains. Usually, transportation takes place to perform some human activities, and it needs the support of information (e.g., travel and destination information), capital (e.g., expenditure on transportation and relevant activities), and/or things (e.g., travel modes and transportation facilities).2 On the other hand, the search for activity information (i.e., information mobility) may lead to the generation of transportation. Purchasing behavior (i.e., capital mobility) on the Internet is accompanied by the transportation of purchased goods (i.e., the mobility of things). Thus, mobility is an extremely important keyword that will forecast the future of humans. Transportation issues should be understood within such a framework.

1.2 Challenges in transportation development in Asia 1.2.1 Urbanization Currently, urbanization is growing very rapidly. It took 100 years to increase from one billion people in the early industrial revolution to two billion people in 1900; however, it took only 12 years to grow to six billion people in 1999 from five billion people in 1987. The United Nations (UN) predicts that the global urbanization rate will reach 60% by 2030, and the increase in the urban population in Asia is considered to be the main factor. Currently, Asia accounts for more than half of the world population, and the economic growth rate in Asia is the highest in the world. Even 2

Introduction

Time

tra ns po

n tio ta or

mobilities

information

rta

tio

n

n tio rta

human

n tio rta

tra ns p

capitals

tra ns po

n tra

sp

o

things

Space

Figure 1.2

Mobility systems

though the urbanization rate in Asia is still low, at around 40%, the total urban population in Asia is larger than that in any other region in the world. Considering the progress of globalization, urbanization in Asia may be affected to some extent; however, McKinnon (2011) noted that urbanization cannot always be assumed a by-product of globalization, even in Asia (p. 40). Nevertheless, more and more megacities (population of ten million or more) have been born in Asia. Around the world,3 as of 2016, there were 31 megacities, 17 of which are in Asia (11 in China and India). How about in 2030? There are expected to be 41 megacities around the world, 23 of which will be in Asia (UN, 2016). In some Asian countries, the over-concentration of the population in megacities such as Bangkok in Thailand, Dhaka in Bangladesh, Manila in the Philippines, Seoul in South Korea, and Tokyo in Japan is remarkable. Many of these megacities have grown to be globally influential cities. Gugler (2004) and UN-Habitat (2013) summarized the states of global cities. However, in Japan, it is predicted that almost half of the municipalities will face a sharp population decline, and, as a result, are highly likely to disappear in the future (Masuda, 2014). One reason behind such a trend is the over-concentration of the population in Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya (housing around half of the nation’s population); other reasons include the aging population, declining birthrate, and so on. It is not unrealistic to assume that there will be more and more cities at risk of vanishing in the future in developing countries in Asia.

1.2.2 A continuing car-dependent trend As stated by Hansen and Nielsen (2016), the private automobile is a core driver of economic development and social transformation in Asia. Some developed countries have observed a 3

Zhang and Feng

decreasing trend of car ownership among young people (e.g., Metz, 2010; Davis, Dutzik and Baxandall, 2012; Goodwin and Van Dender, 2013; Kuhnimhof et al., 2012; Kuhnimhof, Zumkeller and Chlond, 2013). Using national expenditure data from Japan, Zhang et al. (2016) found that low- and high-income young people increased their car ownership from 1984 to 1999 for the first time, but this declined dramatically from 1999 to 2004 (–7.8 points, from 50.5% to 42.7% for the low-income group, and –10.3 points, from 75.2% to 64.9% for the highincome group), compared with the drops from 2004 to 2009. An increasing trend can be observed with respect to middle-income young people (aged 18–34 years), but the trend from 1994 to 2009 is not significant. Such a decline can also be observed with respect to car usage. Concretely speaking, low-income young people’s expenditures on car use decreased from 5.7% in 1994 to 3.9% in 2009, the middle-income group from 8.2% in 1994 to 6.4% in 2009, and the high-income group from 9.8% in 2004 to 5.2% in 2009. Overall, the decrease in car ownership is higher than that of car usage. To date, vehicle ownership in Asia has not shown any sign of decline as a whole in the sense that the sales of automobile vehicles increased almost fivefold between 2005 and 2016, leading to ever-increasing road traffic and, consequently, traffic congestion (Jiang and Zhang, 2017). Vehicle ownership per 1,000 inhabitants in Asian countries in 2015 was 609 vehicles in Japan (ranked 7th in the world), 228 in Thailand, 118 in China, 87 in Indonesia, 38 in the Philippines, 23 in Vietnam, and 22 in India.4 Even though Japan has one of the world’s most efficient public transit networks, its vehicle ownership is still very high.5 In China and India, even though the ownership level is still low, the absolute number of vehicles is extremely high, causing serious traffic problems (congestion, accidents, air pollution, etc.) throughout most of the day.

1.2.3 Problematic development issues Currently, unbalanced within-country development in Asia is serious in the sense that investments and policy resources have been concentrated in megacities and their surrounding areas. Various issues caused by such unbalanced development have been observed, even in Japan. According to Hirschman (1969), growth need not take place in a balanced way, and unequal development in various sectors often generates conditions for rapid development. However, the unbalanced development in Asia does not seem healthy. The over-concentration of investment in megacities and their surrounding areas has encouraged more and more people to out-migrate from local cities, causing the decline of local economies and resulting social issues. As stated in subsection 1.2.1, urbanization in Asia is remarkable. However, urban space is limited. In order to effectively utilize such limited space, it is important to take care of land use in a systematic way by considering various urban functions. However, especially in developing countries, economic development has to be prioritized, and as a result, urban development is often done in an unplanned manner. Typical problems of unplanned development include ignorance of transportation accessibility and the of unplanned development include ignorance of transportation accessibility and the roles of public space, as well as endless urban sprawl and excessive dependence on cars. In addition, the inequality of urban development can be observed in terms of the residential distributions of poor and wealthy people. Even worse, transportation and urban infrastructure within the residential areas of the poor is much worse compared with those of the wealthy. Such inequality can also be observed with respect to air pollution and road traffic congestion caused by car users, in the sense that non-car users (e.g., children, pedestrians, and cyclists) have to suffer from air pollution and congestion. Furthermore, the construction of trunk roads often isolates some previously connected neighborhoods from each other, significantly lowering social contacts between local residents. Thus, transportation developments involve social problems. 4

Introduction

1.2.4 Disexternalities of transportation development In ancient times, civilization sought a way of life that could coexist with nature; however, modern civilization challenges and even seeks to conquer it. Cities can be likened to parasites living in the earth that absorb nutrients and energy as greedy consumers, leading to the excessive use of natural resources. Cities further act as merciless polluters/destroyers, causing air/soil/water pollution, global warming, traffic accidents and crime in both developed and developing countries. Cities currently consume three-quarters of the world’s energy and cause at least threequarters of global pollution.6 Transportation development all over the world has brought prosperity to many people, but it has relied heavily on the excessive use of valuable natural resources. These disexternalities should be internalized in a rational way. Unfortunately, in most of the developing countries in Asia, many people are still suffering from these disexternalities in terms of unequal income, a decline in health-related quality of life (especially diseases caused by air pollution and fatalities and injuries related to traffic accidents), and economic losses due to traffic congestion, etc.

1.2.5 Major issues of transportation infrastructure and services Transportation systems and services, as well as their usage in developing countries, are fraught with challenges, including traffic congestion and accidents owing to a lack of transportation infrastructure, the bad quality of transport services owing to poorly trained human resources, and air pollution owing to poor technologies. In other words, transportation issues in developing countries, including those in Asia, are mainly the result of insufficient and poor transportation infrastructure (lack of ring roads, bad hierarchical structure of road networks, lack of parking spaces and public transport, poor neighborhood roads, and so on). How to guarantee sufficient financial capital and capable human resources for developing Asian countries is therefore crucial. Moreover, transportation development in developed Asian countries ( Japan and Singapore) is still faced with challenges, including traffic congestion and air pollution owing to continuously increasing traffic demand, traffic accidents owing to various human errors, difficulties in maintaining affordable public transport services for the elderly in depopulated areas, and difficulties in securing sufficient funds for the maintenance of existing infrastructure. Transportation issues in developed Asian countries are mainly caused by transport demand. Car-dependent lifestyles in developed countries should be reconsidered. It is important to make more effective use of existing infrastructure to resolve the above issues with the assistance of advanced technologies (e.g., information and communication and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies).

1.2.6 Emerging threats and opportunities 1.2.6.1 Threats The impact of climate change on transportation has not been well researched, even though transportation systems usually perform worse under adverse and extreme weather conditions (Koetse and Rietveld, 2009; Lu et al., 2014). Sea level rise, frequent and intensive storm surges, and flooding are the most worrying consequences of climate change, especially for coastal areas (Koetse and Rietveld, 2009; Lu et al., 2014). According to Koetse and Rietveld (2009), who conducted an extensive literature review: (1) infrastructure disruptions may occur more frequently because of climate change-related shifts in weather patterns; (2) there are probably more traffic accidents owing to more frequent precipitation; and (3) the cost of inland waterway 5

Zhang and Feng

transport may increase owing to more frequent low water levels. Meanwhile, Koetse and Rietveld (2009) emphasized that the net impact of climate change on the generalized costs of various transport modes is uncertain and ambiguous. The impact of climate change varies by region (Dasgupta et al., 2009). McGuirk et al. (2009) summarized the impact of several weather parameters (precipitation, thunderstorms, temperature, wind, visibility [fog, haze, dust, smoke, and sun glare, etc.], and sea state) on transportation in terms of various traffic safety issues, including the efficiency of transport services in relation to reduced speeds, and supply chain disruptions owing to road closures and damage. Unfortunately, insights about the impact of climate change on transportation are still very limited. Another threat is terrorism, which has become the most concerning security issue in transportation, especially in terms of urban public and air transport (Elias, Peterman and Frittelli, 2016), making the use of public transportation less attractive. Furthermore, globalization has brought various benefits, including human resource development, to developing countries, while the selective migration of highly qualified labor from developing to developed countries may threaten the development of developing countries, making capacity building less sustainable.

1.2.6.2 Opportunities Asia is full of opportunities because of its huge market, among which, regional integration/ cooperation schemes such as ASEAN,7 ASEAN+3,8 APEC,9 ASEM,10 South Asia Regional Integration (One South Asia),11 Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) have been promising. With these schemes, Asian countries/ regions are trying to integrate/cooperate with each other for co-development. Transportation infrastructure development will contribute to the reduction of transaction costs between countries (Taneja, 2011). The Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st Century Maritime Silk Road, also known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), were launched in 2013 as a new development strategy for China at the global level. This strategy aims to maintain an open world economic system and advance regional cooperation.12 Under this initiative, infrastructure investments are especially emphasized for connectivity and cooperation between 65 countries/regions along the Belt and Road. If successful, this initiative will significantly contribute to the reintegration of these countries/regions. Regional integration can usually be divided into five stages—free trade areas, customs unions, common markets, economic and monetary unions, and full political unions—as proposed by Balassa (1961), where different stages may require significantly different cross-border and intra-nation transportation developments. Other opportunities come from the progress of technological development. Among these, AI, Internet of Things (IoT), and the concept of shared economies have been attracting increasing attention in many research and practical fields. In relation to transportation, the development of autonomous vehicles (AV) and shared mobility should be highlighted (Zhang et al., 2017). The development of shared mobility in developing countries can be even faster and more extensive than that in developed countries because of the insufficient supply of conventional transportation systems and the lack of laws and regulations for controlling the use of shared mobility, especially from the perspective of privacy, safety, and security. The impact of IoT in logistics is remarkable in terms of “sensing (monitoring of assets/activities/people within a supply/value chain) and sense making (using vast amounts of data to derive insights that drive new solutions)” (see DHL and Cisco, 2015). With these technologies, more and more Big Data will become available. Big Data has potential as a new tool to resolve various transportation issues in the sense that it allows us to know many things that were not possible to be known in the past. Therefore, in the future, there is no doubt that more data-driven research and practice in the field of transportation should be promoted. 6

Introduction

1.3 Outline of the handbook This handbook consists of 20 further chapters divided into the following six parts: (Part I) transportation systems; (Part II) traffic accidents, air pollution, and disasters; (Part III) social exclusion and transport; (Part IV) land use and transport; (Part V) logistics; and (Part VI) governance.

1.3.1 Differences from existing books As the world’s growth engine, Asia has been widely studied. This is also true for transport issues. As shown in Table 1.1, we found 43 books on transport in Asia published since 2000. All of these books focus on particular issues (e.g., sustainable development, air pollution, air transport, logistics, port, urban transport, public transport, and the Asian Highway [AH]) and/or on a specific country/region (e.g., Afghanistan, China, India, Singapore, and Thailand). The following books present some similar contents in a limited way; however, this handbook clearly differs from these, as shown below:    

Low carbon transport in Asia: strategies for optimizing co-benefits (Routledge). Sustainable transport studies in Asia (Springer). Sustainable urban transport in an Asian context (Springer). Transport development in Asian megacities: a new perspective (Springer).

1.3.2 Part I: Transportation systems Because of the rich literature on transportation systems in Asia (as shown in this sub-section), this handbook only targets high-speed railways and cross-border transportation systems, i.e., the AH and the Trans-Asian Railway (TAR). High-speed railway (hereafter, HSR) is a type of rail transport that operates significantly faster than conventional railway systems. HSR started its development 50 years ago and has been rapidly developed in recent years in Asia. The first HSR system began operation in Japan in 1964. In the past decade, three additional Asian countries/regions started HSR services: South Korea in 2004, Taiwan in 2007, and Mainland China in 2008. Moreover, numerous Asian countries, including India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam, are currently planning or discussing HSR projects. The existing Asian HSR systems were developed in different ways using different technologies, and their experiences are valuable for reference for future HSR projects in Asia. Chapter 2 reviews the development history and experiences of existing Asian HSR systems in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Mainland China and explores issues and future challenges from the viewpoints of practice and research. The idea of developing regional road and rail links in Asia was initiated by the then Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East dating back to the 1950s. Chapter 3 traces the history of the development of these Asian road and rail links, which are now known as the AH and TAR networks. These two networks have considerably improved transport connectivity in Asia and support the development of Euro-Asia transport linkages. Empirical studies suggest that such networks offer great potential to generate overland trade and economic development, especially in deep inland areas. However, several studies also suggest that such networks may have unintended adverse socio-political impacts on local people living in deep inland border areas. Mitigation measures are required to address such adverse impacts. This chapter also provides an account of the progress of development of the AH and TAR networks, their current state of development, challenges and prospects for further development, and finally, some conclusions. 7

Review of developments in transport in Asia and the Pacific 2015

Trams, buses, and rails: the history of urban transport in Bangkok, 1886–2010 Air transport in the Asia Pacific

Handbook of business aviation: Asian Pacific edition Review of developments in transport in Asia and the Pacific 2013

1

2

4

Sustainable transport studies in Asia

Urban transportation and logistics: health, safety, and security concerns Gender, roads, and mobility in Asia

7

8

9

Sustainable transport for Chinese cities

6

5

3

Book title

No.

2012

2013

2013

2013

2013

2013

Practical Action

CRC Press

Emerald Group Publishing Springer

UN

Stansted News Ltd

Ashgate Publishing

Silkworm Books

2014

2013

UN

Publisher

2015

Year

Table 1.1 Books on transport in Asia, published since 2000

E. Taniguchi, T.F. Fwa, R.G. Thompson K. Kusakabe

R.L. Mackett, A.D. May, M. Kii, H. Pan A. Fujiwara, J. Zhang

UN

S. Campbell

D.T. Duval

I. Kakizaki

UN

Authors

This book discusses gender-related issues in transport of Asia.

This book focuses on air transport in the Asia Pacific. This book focuses on business aviation in the Asia Pacific. This book illustrates transport developments in the Asia–Pacific region, by focusing on provision of transport infrastructure and services. This book focuses on sustainable transport in China This book presents sustainable transport studies in Asia in terms of travel behavior analysis, modeling analysis of transportation development, tourism demand analysis, paratransit system analysis, vehicle ownership and use, household energy analysis, and traffic safety. This book focuses on logistics.

This book illustrates transport developments in the Asia–Pacific region, by focusing on provision of transport infrastructure and services. This book focuses on trams, buses, and rails in cities of Thailand.

Features

Infrastructure for Asian connectivity

Sustainable urban transport in an Asian context

Transport development in Asian megacities: a new perspective Transport: overcoming constraints, sustaining mobility

10

11

12

Central Asia and South Asia: energy cooperation and transport linkages Economics of regional transport infrastructure in Asia

15

16

Accessible transport: lessons from urban transport projects in East Asia

14

13

Book title

No.

Table 1.1 (continued )

2011

2011

2011

2012

2012

2012

2012

Year

LAP Lambert Academic Publishing

Pentagon Press

World Bank

Cengage Learning Asia Pte Ltd

Springer

Springer

Edward Elgar Publishing

Publisher

M.K. Das

K. Warikoo

Land Transport Authority, Singapore, The Centre for Liveable Cities S. Lundebye, H. Svensson, E. Dotson

S. Morichi, S.R. Acharya

H. Ieda, J. Okata

B.N. Bhattacharyay, M. Kawai, R.M. Nag

Authors

(Continued )

This report gives information on the accessibility situation for disabled persons and persons with special needs from 14 urban transport projects in China and Vietnam. This book focuses on transport and energy. The book identifies Asian regions’ environment with public transport infrastructure and their efficiency in using it.

This book describes regional infrastructure in Asia until 2020, provides examples of national, regional, and global best practices, and presents policy recommendations. Major contents include sustainability in urban transport, transport systems, transport supply and demand, urban form, travel demand management, growth management and sitedevelopment strategies, and financial and institutional measures. This book focuses on transport in Asian megacities. This book focuses on transport in Singapore.

Features

Low carbon transport in Asia: strategies for optimizing co-benefits

Review of developments in transport in Asia and the Pacific 2011

Spatial planning for a sustainable Singapore Changing course: a new paradigm for sustainable urban transport

Resource optimization in the road sector in the People’s Republic of China Review of developments in transport in Asia and the Pacific 2009

Greening the supply chain: a guide for Asian managers Integrated international transport and logistics system for North-East Asia Moving millions: the commercial success and political controversies of Hong Kong’s railways

17

18

19

21

23

25

24

22

20

Book title

No.

Table 1.1 (continued )

2008

2008

2008

2009

2009

2009

2010

2011

2011

Year

Hong Kong University Press

SAGE Publications Pvt. Ltd UN

UN

ADB

ADB

Springer

UN

Routledge

Publisher

R. Yeung

ESCAP

P.H. Rao

UN

ADB

T.-C. Wong, B. Yuen, C. Goldblum ADB

UN

E. Zusman, A. Srinivasan, S. Dhakal

Authors

This book focuses on Hong Kong’s railways.

This book focuses on logistics.

This book illustrates transport developments in the Asia–Pacific region, by focusing on provision of transport infrastructure and services. This book focuses on logistics.

This book outlines a new paradigm for sustainable urban transport in Asian cities. This book focuses on roads in China.

The book represents case studies on fuel switching in Pakistan, urban planning in Bandung, Indonesia, congestion charges in Beijing, vehicle restraints in Hanoi, and bus rapid transit in Jakarta in the context of low-carbon transport. This book illustrates transport developments in the Asia–Pacific region, by focusing on provision of transport infrastructure and services. This book focuses on Singapore.

Features

Developing strategies for the modern international airport: East Asia and beyond Engines of change: the railroads that made India Public transport in developing countries

32

35

34

33

31

30

29

Review of developments in transport in Asia and the Pacific 2005

Port cities in Asia and Europe Port privatisation: the Asia-Pacific experience Assessing the impact of transport and energy infrastructure on poverty reduction Land transport in Mughal India: AgraLahore Mughal Highway and its architecture Priority investment needs for the development of the Asian Highway network Review of developments in transport in Asia and the Pacific 2007

26 27

28

Book title

No.

Table 1.1 (continued )

Aryan Books International UN

2007

2007

2005

2005

Praeger Publishing Emerald Group Publishing UN

Ashgate Publishing

2006

2006

UN

2007

2007

Routledge Edward Elgar Publishing ADB

Publisher

2008 2008

Year

UN

R. Iles

I.J. Kerr

A. Williams

UN

ESCAP

C.C. Cook, T. Duncan, S. Jitsuchon, A. Sharma, G. Wu S. Parihar

A. Graf, C.B. Huat J. Reveley, M. Tull

Authors

(Continued )

This book illustrates transport developments in the Asia–Pacific region, by focusing on provision of transport infrastructure and services.

This book focuses on public transport.

This book focuses on India’s railway.

This book illustrates transport developments in the Asia–Pacific region, by focusing on provision of transport infrastructure and services. This book focuses on airports.

This book focuses on the Asian Highway.

This book focuses on land transport in India.

This book focuses on transport and energy in Asia.

This book focuses on ports. This book focuses on ports.

Features

Afghanistan’s transport sector: on the road to recovery Cities, transport and communications: the integration of Southeast Asia since 1850

Southeast Asian regional port development: a comparative analysis

Development of the Trans-Asian railway: Trans-Asian railway in the north-south corridor Northern Europe to the Persian Gulf Compact cities: sustainable urban forms for developing countries

Development of Asia-Europe rail container transport through block-trains northern corridor of the Trans-Asian railway Informal transport in the developing world Strategy and guidelines for upgrading of Asian Highway routes

36

38

39

41

2000

UN

UN-Habitat

UN

2000

2000

Routledge

2001

2002

Institute of Southeast Asian Studies UN

Palgrave Macmillan

2003

2003

ADB

Publisher

2004

Year

ESCAP

R. Cervero

ESCAP

R. Burgess, M. Jenks

ESCAP

C.L. Sien

H.W. Dick, P.J. Rimmer

H. Masood

Authors

ADB: Asian Development Bank; ESCAP: Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific; UN: United Nations.

43

42

40

37

Book title

No.

Table 1.1 (continued )

This book focuses on the Asian Highway.

This book focuses on informal transport.

This book describes urban forms in Asia, but discusses transportation in a very limited way. This book focuses on the Trans-Asian railway.

This book focuses on the Trans-Asian railway.

This book focuses on Afghanistan’s transport sector. Focusing on cities, this book shows how technological change, economic development, and politics in Southeast Asia have transformed the flows of goods, people, and information. This book focuses on port development.

Features

Introduction

We summarize other transportation systems in Asia excluded from this handbook as follows by drawing on major references. (1) Urban transportation systems in Asia: general aspects According to UN-ESCAP (2015), Asian cities have a broad range of urban transport modes and systems (e.g., paratransit, public transport, taxi services, private vehicles, walking, and cycling). Public transport systems include normal buses, bus rapid transit (BRT), subways, streetcars, monorails, elevated rails (sky trains) and cable cars, and paratransit takes a variety of forms, including vans, tricycles, motorcycle taxis and boats (water transport) (p. 91). UN-ESCAP (2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015) provides excellent overviews of various urban and inter-city transportation systems, as well as rural transport. As for public transport in developing countries (including developing Asian countries), Iles (2005) describes their types and characteristics and discusses the planning, regulation, ownership, and structure of the public transport industry, personnel management and training, financial management and control, and so on, paying special attention to what is appropriate at different stages of development and for different cultural backgrounds. Some examples of better practices of urban transport systems (e.g., rail systems in Tokyo, urban expressways in Shanghai and Tokyo, ring roads in Beijing, urban transport in Hong Kong, bus systems in Bangkok, Jakarta, Nagoya, and Seoul) can be found in Ieda and Okata (2012). (2) Bus rapid transit (BRT) system in Asia Bus companies are always faced with the issue of how to guarantee the punctuality of bus operation because buses have to share the same road space with general car traffic. BRT has been developed to tackle this problem by introducing exclusive/segregated bus lanes. BRT usually has a larger capacity than normal buses, but a smaller capacity than subways. According to Global BRT Data (http://brtdata.org/), as of 2017, there were 205 cities introducing BRT, with a total length of 5,655 km, and transporting more than 34 million passengers per day. In terms of length and ridership, Asia accounts for about 27% of that in the entire world, following the top region, Latin America (length – 34%; ridership – 61%; number of cities – 33%) (see Table 1.2). In Asia, 42 cities have introduced BRT, with a total length of 1,579 km, and transporting 9.3 million passengers per day; among these, China has the highest share in terms of passengers per day (47%), number of cities (48%), and length (43%), followed by Indonesia in terms of length (13%), Iran in terms of ridership (23%), and India in terms of cities (17%). Information about other Asian countries/regions is shown in Table 1.3. The BRT operation speed in Asia ranges from 18–31 km/h, but unfortunately, the share of exclusive/segregated bus lanes is very low. Global BRT Data (http://brtdata. org/) provides a series of indicators about supply, demand, and service levels, as well as other aspects; however, a large proportion of data are missing, suggesting the necessity of further survey and research. (3) Informal transport in Asia In developing countries, including those in Asia, there is a large proportion of low-income and/or unskilled people working as drivers in informal transport sectors (mainly paratransit: e.g., jeepneys in the Philippines, tuk-tuks and songtaews in Thailand, rickshaws in Bangladesh, and Angkots/Ojeks/Becaks in Indonesia). The existence of such an informal sector is in part because, currently, formal public transport services in many developing countries do not have adequate capacity to meet the ever-increasing travel demand. In this sense, the informal transport sector exists with its own rationality: to provide transport services to commuters and to earn income for drivers and their families. One critical problem is that drivers’ salaries are 13

Zhang and Feng Table 1.2 BRT in the world Countries/Regions

Passengers per Day

Number of Cities

Length (km)

Latin America Oceania Europe Northern America Asia Africa

20,973,354 436,200 2,026,847 1,071,179 9,293,372 468,178

67 4 59 29 42 4

1,912 96 998 953 1,579 117

Countries/Regions

Passengers per Day

Number of Cities

Length (km)

China India Indonesia Iran Israel Japan Malaysia Pakistan Republic of Korea Taiwan Thailand

4,375,250 340,122 370,000 2,135,000 92,000 9,000 0 305,000 400,000 1,252,000 15,000

20 7 1 3 1 2 1 2 1 3 1

672 174 207 165 40 29 5 50 115 107 15

Copyright Ó 2017 brtdata.org.

Table 1.3 BRT in Asia

Copyright Ó 2017 brtdata.org.

very low, so they can only provide support at a minimum level. Once people fail to continue their current driving jobs, a majority of them may not have any alternatives and, as a consequence, their lives collapse. Some cities are attempting to limit/remove rickshaws from the streets. For such traffic measures, the Delhi high court judged that “to limit the numbers of rickshaws hauled amid the cacophony of private cars, overloaded buses, motorbikes, carts and occasional elephants on Delhi’s congested streets would be to deny their pullers the constitutional right of free choice of work.”13 Thus, resolving traffic issues caused by informal transport needs to take social aspects into account (Zhang et al., 2013). This handbook does not prepare any specific chapter for this topic because there are already various references to it (e.g., Cervero, 2000; Cervero and Golub, 2007; Spooner, 2011; Zhang et al., 2013; UN-ESCAP, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015; Behrens, Mccormich and Mfinanga, 2016; Phun and Yai, 2016). GTZ (2010) recommended a reading list of references, including online information sources, about global status, regulatory approaches and formalization, integration in existing local public transport systems, incorporating informal bus services in BRT systems, barriers for change, and case studies. (4) Water transport system: Mekong River According to the Mekong River Commission (www.mrcmekong.org/), the Mekong River is the 10th largest river in the world. It drains a total land area of 795,000 km2 from the eastern watershed of the Tibetan Plateau to the Mekong Delta, and flows approximately 4,909 km across provinces in China, Myanmar, Lao PDR, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam. The 14

Introduction

Mekong River, the backbone of the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS), is only partially navigable14 and cannot function as a main transport route; only the stretch between Vietnam and Cambodia is used extensively (Van Es, 2010). Therefore, how to improve navigation for maintaining freedom of navigation and enhancing river-borne transport networks needed to support remote communities, the shipment of bulk goods, and further regional interconnectivity is one of the major challenges for GMS development (Mekong River Commission, 2016, p. 6). However, activities and knowledge throughout the region are still very limited, with the exception of Vietnam, which is actively working on improving waterways for accommodating growing barge traffic (Van Es, 2010). The lack of common standards, procedures, and rules for navigation is the most striking weakness in the Mekong Basin navigation regime (Mekong River Commission, 2016, p. 88). In the case of passenger transport, for example, the lab of the first author of this chapter conducted a questionnaire survey (respondents: 200 local residents and 360 tourists) in Lao PDR in 2016 and found that more than half of the 560 respondents were not satisfied with the safety of water transport on the Mekong River, making it the least satisfying of the total of 29 water transport services.15 In the Strategic Plan 2016–2020, the Mekong River Commission (2016) presented a set of guidelines and frameworks on waterborne transport management, a regional action plan for the sustainable transportation of dangerous goods as a basis to reduce the risks of accidents, spillages, and pollution and enhance emergency response and regional coordination, and a master plan for regional waterborne transport, all with a focus on navigation improvements. However, how to realize the “promises” in the above plans/guidelines is still questionable, considering member countries’ willingness to provide necessary funds, key decision makers’ understanding of the advantages and importance of waterborne transportation, effective cooperation between member countries, laws and regulations required to support the measures, and private sectors’ abilities to adjust their business operations under new environments. Ports are also crucial to GMS development. In this regard, Graf and Huat (2009) presented more information about port development in Asia in general, and Reveley and Tull (2008) described the Asia-Pacific experience of port privatization.

1.3.3 Part II: Traffic accidents, air pollution, and disasters As stated previously, there are various disexternalities caused by transportation. Here, four chapters will focus on road traffic and railway accidents, air pollution, and the impact of disasters on transport. Chapter 4 provides a comprehensive overview of traffic safety issues in Asia based on the DPSIR+C framework. The elements of DPSIR+C comprise D: driving forces; P: pressures; S: states; I: impacts; R: responses; and C: capacity. Driving forces mainly refer to economic growth, urbanization, and car-dependent lifestyles. Pressures indicate the increase in car traffic associated with car ownership. States mean the size and severity level of accidents. Impacts can be observed with respect to economic losses at the macro level and the deterioration of health-related quality of life. Responses include laws and institutions, economic measures, technological innovations, and education. Capacity is that of the different stakeholders involved in traffic safety improvements. We present a literature review in line with this framework, especially in the context of Asia. To conclude, future research directions are discussed at length. Railways dominated the land transportation sector for more than 100 years since their origin in 1825, and continue to play an important role in modern urban and intercity transportation sectors. At present, the railway sector has entered a new era characterized by the development of urban rail transit and high-speed railways. Owing to the high-volume and speed of modern railways, their safety issues demand serious public attention. Railway safety is a complicated subject because of the many factors that must be considered to prevent accidents and mitigate the 15

Zhang and Feng

risk of human casualties and property losses. Building an effective safety framework requires balancing between various compromising factors, including capacity loss and output. Chapter 5 introduces the role of railways as a mode of transportation in Asia, describes railway safety issues and types of accidents, and reports some typical railway accidents in several countries/regions. Based on facts, it also illustrates many railway accidents in detail. This chapter also reviews some studies on railway accidents, which can be helpful for understanding the formation and management of railway accidents. It also presents a framework on railway safety management systems based on technological, managerial, and other factors, and outlines how the safety management system of the China Railway Corporation is organized. Finally, the chapter summarizes some key points in improving safety management and its applications in Asian railways. Maritime accidents threaten lives and properties at sea and in the marine environment. After introducing fundamental concepts, Chapter 6 presents the trends and patterns of shipping accidents and reviews existing studies on their causes, preventive measures, and major research methods, followed by an introduction of economic measures in shipping accident prevention. A summary of the existing issues and possible future trends on the prevention of maritime accidents is further provided to promote future research and managerial efforts in this area. These can help maritime society design better ships and implement better management schemes to meet new challenges. As for airline accidents, which are beyond the scope of this handbook, Europe, North America, and Asia are the top three continents in terms of total accidents and fatalities (Table 1.4). Barnett (2010) compared passenger deaths in scheduled air travel around the world from 2000– 2007, and found that the safest countries are the traditional first-world countries (e.g., Canada and Japan), with an average passenger death rate per flight of about 1 in 14 million. The second safest countries are those that have either recently attained first-world status (e.g., Singapore and South Korea) or that are classified by experts as newly industrialized (e.g., Brazil and China), at about 1 in 2 million. The least safe countries are the remaining developing-world countries, at about 1 in 0.8 million. According to the Aviation Safety Network (https://aviation-safety.net/), seven Asian countries—Russia (deaths/accidents: 8,251/514), Indonesia (2,035/98), India (2,339/94), China (1,886/76), Ukraine (1,336/61), the Philippines (865/60), and Kazakhstan (729/40)—are among the top 25 countries in the world with the highest number of fatal civil airliner accidents from 1945 to the present, with the United States ranked first (10712/821) and Russia second.16

Table 1.4 Numbers of civil airliner accidents and fatalities by continent since 1945 Continent

Accidents

Fatalities

Europe North America Asia South America Africa Central America Australasia International waters Antarctica North Pole

1,149 1,020 746 652 406 172 125 74 6 1

23,550 13,060 19,401 10,752 8,127 2,299 1,467 2,419 276 1

Edited based on data from https://aviation-safety.net/statistics/geographical/ continents.php.

16

Introduction

More information about airline safety status refers to the IATA Safety Report,17 issued by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) (www.icao.int) and the ICAO Safety Report18 issued by the International Air Transport Association (www.iata.org). As for relevant research, Barnett (2010) argued that the observed risk pattern might reflect a confluence of economic and cultural factors. Oster, Strong, and Zorn (2013) presented the problems, challenges, and opportunities related to aviation safety in a general context. In some of the most recent research, Kim and Rhee (2017) examined how airline companies learned from airline accidents in the United States. Gao, Bruce, and Rajendran (2015) assessed the safety climate of a major commercial airline from the Asia–Pacific region. Focusing on China, Cui and Li (2015) revealed the changing trends and influencing factors of civil aviation safety efficiency, and Ji et al. (2011) examined the effects of attitudinal factors of airline pilots on aviation safety. In recent years, air pollution has become increasingly serious in Asia. China and India are two rapidly developing countries with the largest and the second largest population in Asia, as well as in the world. Annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth of about 6–7% has resulted in rapid urbanization and mobilization, thereby causing rising smog levels. China and India have the most polluted cities in the world. Air quality and climate change will not come under control unless transport emissions are managed effectively in both countries. Meantime, there are significant differences in the structure of their transport sectors (China has no diesel passenger cars, while India has a huge motorcycle population), in their regulatory approaches (China has a labeling program, while India has tended to rely on fuel switching), and in their results. These differences offer a potentially rich evidence base to draw from for other rapidly motorizing countries in Asia. Hence, Chapter 7 takes China and India as examples to describe the relationship between air pollution and transportation emissions, as well as the implementation of relevant policies, and to summarize the research and techniques in the field of transportation emissions in these two countries. It should be noted that this chapter provides essential information about source apportionment, emission control strategies, and possible impacts, which are the key inputs into effectively managing transport emissions. The Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) of 11 March 2011 severely affected transportation systems in Japan, both in metropolitan areas and remote villages. Lessons learned from the GEJE provide useful insights for improving future disaster preparations and making transportation systems more resilient. Chapter 8 describes the destruction and damage to the transportation infrastructure by the GEJE and tsunami disaster and the subsequent restoration of the transportation systems. It also presents comparisons of damages, costs, and recovery time between the GEJE and the 1995 Great Hanshin Earthquake. This chapter also discusses the transportation problems related to disaster-induced transportation, such as tsunami evacuation and humanitarian logistics supply. In a similar context to Chapter 8, Hamnett and Forbes (2011) described planning practices and future challenges of Asian cities from the perspective of risks and resilience, targeting Bangkok, Beijing, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, Manila, Putrajaya, Tokyo, Shanghai, Taipei, Seoul, and Singapore. In their book, they discussed how well prepared these cities are for climate change and how they can build social capital crucial for a city’s recovery from shocks and disasters. Lu et al. (2014) presented an excellent overview of existing studies on transportation under extreme weather events and found that there was a lack of assessment on inter-city travel, which has less redundancy and is more exposed to extreme weather threats, and that much of the existing research has been carried out in developed countries. To fill this research gap, Lu et al. (2014) investigated how people adapt their inter-city travel behavior to the impact of flooding in Bangladesh, and recommended that when making decisions regarding adaptation to flooding, it is important to protect road infrastructure and to guarantee accessible routes in coastal areas while offering more flood adaptation education to those living inland. 17

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1.3.4 Part III: Social exclusion and transport Here, three chapters will aim to provide a comprehensive overview of social exclusion and transport. While social exclusion has been an important concept in Europe and Australia in particular, it has been little used in association with developing countries; however, this is changing with its inclusion in sustainable development goals. Nonetheless, the association present between social inclusion and land passenger transport is still very underdeveloped. Chapter 9 discusses how a strong link remains between economic growth and car ownership, with the belief that such an association reduces poverty and social exclusion. However, this belief tends to overlook the social and environmental costs associated with private vehicles. Research is presented that shows the value of facilitating public and active transport for those at risk of social exclusion, promoting their capabilities through accumulating social resources and obtaining skills, thereby gaining a sense of satisfaction and positive emotions. Such mobility is not only inclusive and sustainable, but also likely a better way of reducing poverty. The rapid growth of urban populations is creating particular complexities for developing countries, compounded by a striving for economic growth and the Western model of car ownership. Chapter 10 provides an overview of the interface between urban transport and social exclusion in urban centers in developing Asian countries. This chapter overviews the disjuncture between land use and transport planning and the dominant structure of mobility patterns currently being formed. It defines those groups of people experiencing the greatest risks of social exclusion and the challenges faced to the provision of more inclusive transport. Possible solutions are given, together with a model that integrates land use planning and transport concentrating on the local level with the 20-minute city. It is argued that the mobility needs of those at risk of social exclusion will only be facilitated if urban planners build on the existing strengths of people and locations, such as local initiatives to meet mobility needs, particularly around informal transport for those with a low income, and places more emphasis on building transport and services in the local neighborhood. Chapter 11 presents an overview of transport-related social exclusion issues associated with rapid aging and population decline in the context of developed Asian countries/regions. Key challenges lie on different scales from nation to neighborhood. On the national scale, shifting from redistribution schemes to innovative solutions (in the sense of maintaining/improving public services without additional financial burdens) would be crucial to maintain public services in a sustainable way. On the regional scale, car dependency and the associated land use patterns are the central issues, where out-of-home activity engagement is largely restricted by car availability. On the neighborhood scale, characterizing a neighborhood by exploring both regional and neighborhood accessibilities is needed to consider appropriate transport policies, particularly for those who cannot use a car. After introducing some cases in Japan at each scale, we discuss some possible solutions and research challenges.

1.3.5 Part IV: Land use and transport Transport needs to be integrated with land use and vice versa. In this regard, various urban forms (e.g., transit-oriented development [TOD], the compact city, multi-nuclei city, bicycle city, and walkable city) have been proposed to tackle various urban issues. In the context of Asia, public transport-focused urban development is important, especially from the perspective of sustainable urban development. Chapter 12 presents an overview of Ensen Kaihatsu and TOD. Ensen Kaihatsu has been introduced, mainly in Asia, by Japanese private railway companies. Ensen means “along a railway line” and Kaihatsu means “development” in Japanese. These encompass a wide variety of 18

Introduction

developments to encourage railway businesses such as downtown department stores, residential districts in the suburbs, and leisure parks in the outer suburbs. In other words, the daily lives of residents in these areas are covered by that private railway company. TOD is a form of joint development among different agents, such as a public railway corporation and an urban developer. The history and characteristics of these two methods are compared in this chapter. Changing socioeconomic conditions in Asian urban regions require the introduction of these harmonious development methods to realize a more sustainable world. Many Asian countries and regions are incorporating TOD principles into their national and local development policies as a strategy to tackle the emerging trend of urban sprawl. There are also a great number of Asian cities, especially those in rapidly growing regions, implementing development-oriented transit (DOT) strategies—rail lines extend to vacant or underdeveloped areas to lead the anticipated spatial expansion. Chapter 13 reviews the Asian experience (not including Japan) in integrating urban development with rail transit investments characterized as Transit Integrated Development (TID), which encompasses both TOD and DOT. The chapter is composed of three parts. First, we introduce various types of existing rail transit technologies in Asian cities. Second, we highlight five key features of the Asian experience in development along rail lines. Third, we present three exemplar practices of integrated rail transit-urban development. The chapter ends with concluding remarks. Chapter 14 provides an overview of Asian studies on transport and land use. The chapter first reviews empirical studies on the relationship between land use and transport, particularly summarizing studies on the effects of transport on land use. Second, a literature review regarding transport effects on property prices is provided. Third, empirical studies of land use effects on transport are reviewed, with a special focus on built environments and travel behavior. Fourth, the applications of integrated land use transportation models are summarized.

1.3.6 Part V: Logistics This part deals with city, railway, and airline logistics. Chapter 15 presents the concepts and characteristics of city logistics for efficient and environmentally friendly urban freight transport systems. It highlights city logistics policy measures, including joint delivery systems using urban consolidation centers, and the application of intelligent transport systems. It also discusses the importance of public–private partnerships of stakeholders involved in city logistics. Some case studies on city logistics in Japan, China, India, the Philippines, and Thailand are given to describe the current state in Asian countries. Future perspectives focus on health issues relating to city logistics in aging societies and humanitarian logistics after disasters. To offer cleaner, more reliable, and more efficient mass transport services geared to a new era, Chapter 16 focuses on two main types of railway freight transport and logistics—car-based transport and container-based transport—and illustrates a comprehensive picture of railway freight transport and logistics in terms of the following: (1) the basic characteristics of railway freight transport; (2) modern container transport systems (using Japanese railway freight transport as a case model); (3) approaches to analyze container-based intermodal freight transport; and (4) optimal methods for yard-based railway freight transport systems. Based on Hong Kong’s airborne trade patterns since 2000, Chapter 17 reveals the increasing importance of mainland China in Hong Kong’s air cargo business. Hong Kong plays a substantial role as a gateway to southern China. However, after the 2008 financial crisis, a number of factors raised the dynamics of the air cargo business in Hong Kong. Since then, the demand for air cargo services in Hong Kong has become more sensitive to freight rates and income than ever before. In addition to the deteriorating global economic environment, both regulation and policy changes 19

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in China, as well as competition from airports in mainland China, have contributed to this change. Despite these new developments, Hong Kong has managed to keep its competitive edge in the air cargo business, mainly because of its free port status, strategic positioning, efficient customs clearance, strong international connectivity, and great special cargo handling skills. Chapter 18 overviews the methodology of efficiency measurements as well as its application to benchmarking and productivity analysis for the aviation sector, with a focus on the Asian region. There are primarily three different types of methodologies, namely, data envelopment analysis, stochastic frontier analysis, and an index number approach. Recent developments in methodologies such as the inclusion of undesirable outputs and dynamic production processes, as well as the parametric approach of multi-output production transformation function estimation, are also covered. Finally, dynamic and network efficiency measurement methodology and its application to the Japanese aviation market are discussed.

1.3.7 Part VI: Governance Better cities/nations require better governance. The development of a city/nation requires various forms of capital (natural, institutional, physical [social overhead capital (or social infrastructure) and productive capital], financial, human, and social), where natural capital, institutional capital, and social infrastructure are also called social common capital. This part focuses on developing Asian countries, which are often faced with various governance issues such as a lack of adequate funds/equipment/technologies, of capable human resources, and of developmental expertise regarding social infrastructure (e.g., electricity, water, waste treatment facilities, and transportation networks and facilities). Fortunately, many developing countries have rich natural resources and cheap labor, which are actually needed by developed countries. Thus, both developed and developing countries can be mutually dependent. In this regard, international cooperation becomes important. Developed countries can benefit substantially from international cooperation by making active investments on improving the governance of developing countries via construction of various infrastructures. Infrastructure deficits are huge in developing Asian countries, which cripple their development potential. In more developed countries in Asia, fiscal constraints are hampering efforts to maintain past investments in a sustainable manner. How to fund infrastructure development and maintenance is a common issue throughout Asia and in many other parts of the world. Chapter 19 aims to serve as a practical reference on key concepts and ideas about financing transport infrastructure and services. After touching upon basic economic concepts such as public goods, externalities, and monopolies, which are important for understanding transport financing, this chapter presents key features of such mechanisms in terms of: (1) sources of funds (direct users and/or broader beneficiaries); (2) institutional arrangements (public, private, or a combination of both); and (3) financing modalities (sovereign, sub-sovereign, or non-sovereign; corporate or project). It then discusses these features using representative cases from developing Asia. Finally, it gives a brief overview of the areas where further research is warranted. Chapter 20 deals with capacity building issues related to environmental management in the transport sector. Social capacity is particularly emphasized in the sense of whether policies reducing transport-generated environmental loads can be proposed and implemented in a better way that relies on the capacity of not only government, but also firms and civil society. First, the concept of social capacity for environmental management in the existing literature is reviewed and discussed. Second, this concept is improved and further introduced to a so-called DPSIR framework, leading to the proposal of a DPSIR+C framework. Various existing studies on relevant frameworks and indicators are broadly reviewed to support this new framework. Third, 20

Introduction

three case studies related to the transport sector are conducted at the national, city, and individual levels to examine the effectiveness of the proposed framework and explore the roles and significance of social capacity in a comprehensive way. Finally, the study is concluded, together with a discussion on future research issues. Chapter 21 discusses development assistance to transportation in developing Asian countries. First, current global trends encountered by many governments in Asia and international donor communities are summarized along with their motivations for transportation investment in the developing world. Next, the history of development assistance in Asia, including the contributions of official development assistance (ODA) and the case of Japan’s ODA, is described. Previous aid to Asian transportation by major donors is also reviewed using a statistical dataset. Next, the direct effects of transportation infrastructure are explained through the identification of current major transportation problems in Asia, followed by a discussion of standard solutions for rural areas, small- and middle-scale cities, and megacities under a transportation planning/master plan approach. In addition, the indirect effects relating to economic growth and transportation disadvantages are shown with empirical evidence. Finally, the challenges of development assistance are discussed, highlighting development assistance that incorporates the unique characteristics of the Asian transportation market.

1.4 Final remarks At the global level, the UN has set Sustainable Development Goals19 for transforming the current global society into a more desirable one. Transport policies in Asia should conform to these goals. On the other hand, Asian countries/regions are characterized by their diversity in terms of geographical characteristics, climate and weather conditions, natural resources, cultural–social and economic systems, and lifestyles. These make transport issues in Asia unique, and thus relevant solutions toward future sustainable development differ from those in other parts of the world. Meanwhile, there may be some similarities in both transport issues and their solutions with other parts of the world. This handbook first shows a general picture of existing research on transport in Asia by focusing on major topics (transportation systems; traffic accidents, air pollution, and disasters; social exclusion and transport; land use and transport; logistics; and governance), and then presents readers (graduate students, researchers, and practitioners, etc.) with a wide range of future research issues based on the rich experience of top-level researchers from universities in the United States, Europe, and Asia and the Pacific region, as well as top-level practitioners from international agencies such as the UN and Asian Development Bank (ADB). Such research-oriented contents differentiate this handbook from existing books. Having summarized the features of this handbook, we have to admit that it is not free of limitations owing to the lack of extensive literature reviews about several major topics, including airline accidents and informal, water, and rural transport.

Notes 1 www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?show=aimsScope&journalCode=rmob20 [Accessed 2 August 2017]. 2 Note that the scopes of information, capital, and things are much broader than those associated with transportation. 3 www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/urbanization/the_worlds_cities_ in_2016_data_booklet.pdf [Accessed 6 August 2017]. 4 www.statista.com/statistics/610820/motorization-rate-in-selected-countries/ [Accessed 8 August 2017]. 21

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5 www.demystifyasia.com/car-ownership-asia/ [Accessed 8 August 2017]. 6 http://safety-mobility-for-all.com/sites/default/files/Key_Unit7-EN-Future_of_our_Cities_0.pdf [Accessed 8 August 2017]. 7 http://asean.org/ 8 http://asean.org/asean/external-relations/asean-3/ 9 www.apec.org/ 10 www.aseminfoboard.org/ 11 www.worldbank.org/en/programs/south-asia-regional-integration#1 12 https://eng.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/wcm.files/upload/CMSydylyw/201705/201705110537027.pdf [Accessed 5 August 2015]. 13 www.theguardian.com/world/2010/feb/11/rickshaw-ruling-delhi [Accessed 5 August 2017]. 14 For example, the Mekong River flows 2,030 km through Lao PDR; however, the river is only navigable on 65% of the total length, mainly because of rapids, shoal and low water levels during the dry season (www.photius.com/countries/laos/economy/laos_economy_inland_waterways.html) [Accessed 16 August 2017]. 15 Details refer to a master thesis by Sayasouk (2017) under the supervisor of the first author of this chapter. 16 https://aviation-safety.net/statistics/geographical/worst_geo_loc.php [Accessed 14 August 2017]. Note that military accidents, corporate jets, hijackings (and other criminal occurrences) are not included. 17 For example, Safety Report 2016 is available at: www.iata.org/docx/IATA-Safety-Report-2016-2.pdf [Accessed 14 August 2017]. 18 www.icao.int/safety/Pages/Safety-Report.aspx [Accessed 14 August 2017]. 19 www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/ [Accessed 14 August 2017].

References Balassa, B.A. (1961). The theory of economic integration. London: George Allen & Unwin. Barnett, A. (2010). Cross-National Differences in Aviation Safety Records. Transportation Science, 44(3), pp. 322–332. Behrens, R., Mccormich, D. and Mfinanga, D. (2016). Paratransit in African cities: operations, regulation and reforms. New York: Routledge. Cervero, R. (2000). Informal Transport in the Developing World. Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Commission on Human Settlements. Cervero, R. and Golub, A. (2007). Informal Transport: A Global Perspective. Transport Policy, 14(6), pp. 445–457. Chikaraishi, M. (2017). Mobility of the elderly. In: J. Zhang ed., Life-oriented Behavioral Research for Urban Policy, Tokyo: Springer, pp. 267–291. Cui, Q. and Li, Y. (2015). The Change Trend and Influencing Factors of Civil Aviation Safety Efficiency: The Case of Chinese Airline Companies. Safety Science, 75, pp. 56–63. Dasgupta, S., Laplante, B., Meisner, C., Wheeler, D. and Yan, J. (2009). The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis. Climate Change, 93(3–4), pp. 379–388. Davis, B., Dutzik, T. and Baxandall, P. (2012). Transportation and the new generation: why young people are driving less and what it means for transportation policy. Frontier Group—US P.I.R.G. Education Fund. DHL and Cisco. (2015). Internet of Things in Logistics. A Collaborative Report by DHL and Cisco on Implications and Use Cases for the Logistics Industry. [online] Available at: www.dhl.com/content/dam/ Local_Images/g0/New_aboutus/innovation/DHLTrendReport_Internet_of_things.pdf [Accessed on 12 Aug. 2017]. Elias, B., Peterman, D.R. and Frittelli, J. (2016). Transportation Security: Issues for the 114th Congress. Congressional Research Service 7-5700. [online] Available at: https://fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/ RL33512.pdf [Accessed on 12 Aug. 2017]. Gao, Y., Bruce, P.J. and Rajendran, N. (2015). Safety Climate of a Commercial Airline: A Cross-sectional Comparison of Four Occupational Groups. Journal of Air Transport Management, 47, pp. 162–171. Goodwin, P. and Van Dender, K. (2013). ‘Peak Car’—Themes and Issues. Transport Reviews, 33, pp. 243–254. Graf, A. and Huat, C.B. (2009). Port cities in Asia and Europe. New York: Routledge. GTZ. (2010). Informal Public Transport: Recommended Reading and Links. [pdf] Available at: www.sutp. org/files/contents/documents/resources/F_Reading-Lists/GIZ_SUTP_RL_Informal-Public-Transport_ EN.pdf [Accessed on 5 Aug. 2017]. 22

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Gugler, J. (2004). World cities beyond the west: globalization, development and inequality. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Hamnett, S. and Forbes, D. (2011) Planning Asian cities: risks and resilience. New York: Routledge. Hansen, A. and Nielsen, K.B. (2016). Cars, automobility and development in Asia: wheels of change. New York: Routledge. Hirschman, A.O. (1969). The strategy of economic development. In: A.N. Agarwal and S.P. Singh, eds., Accelerating Investment in Developing Economies, London: Oxford University Press. Ieda, H. and Okata, J. (2012). Sustainable urban transport in an Asian context. Springer. Iles, R. (2005). Public transport in developing countries. Emerald Group Publishing. Ji, M., You, X., Lan, J. and Yang, S. (2011). The Impact of Risk Tolerance, Risk Perception and Hazardous Attitude on Safety Operation among Airline Pilots in China. Safety Science, 49(10), pp. 1412–1420. Jiang, Y. and Zhang, J. (2017). Road traffic safety in Asia: an analysis based on DPSIR+C framework. In: J. Zhang and C.-M. Feng, eds., Routledge Handbook of Transport in Asia, New York: Routledge, pp. 63–93. Kim, E. and Rhee, M. (2017). How Airlines Learn from Airline Accidents: An Empirical Study of How Attributed Errors and Performance Feedback Affect Learning from Failure. Journal of Air Transport Management, 58, pp. 135–143. Koetse, M.J. and Rietveld, P. (2009). The Impact of Climate Change and Weather on Transport: An Overview of Empirical Findings. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 14(3), pp. 205–221. Kuhnimhof, T., Armoogum, J., Buehler, R., Dargay, J., Denstadli, J.M. and Yamamoto, T. (2012). Men Shape a Downward Trend in Car Use among Young Adults—Evidence from Six Industrialized Countries. Transport Reviews, 32, pp. 761–779. Kuhnimhof, T., Zumkeller, D. and Chlond, B. (2013). Who Made Peak Car, and How? A Breakdown of Trends over Four Decades in Four Countries. Transport Reviews, 33, pp. 325–342. Leary, L. (2014). Past mobilities: archaeological approaches to movement and mobility. Surrey: Ashgate Publishing. Lu, Q., Zhang, J., Peng, Z. and Rahman, A.B.M.S. (2014). Inter-City Travel Behaviour Adaptation to Extreme Weather Events. Journal of Transport Geography, 41, pp. 148–153. McGuirk, M., Shuford, S., Peterson, T.C. and Pisano, P. (2009). Weather and Climate Change Implications for Surface Transportation in the USA. [online] Available at: https://public.wmo.int/en/bulletin/ weather-and-climate-change-implications-surface-transportation-usa [Accessed on 12 Aug. 2017]. McKinnon, M. (2011). Asian cities: globalization, urbanization and nation-building. NIAS Press: Copenhagen. Masuda, H. (2014). The Death of Regional Cities: A Horrendous Simulation—Regional Cities will Disappear by 2040; A Polarized Society will Emerge. Discuss Japan—Japan Foreign Policy Forum No. 17. Mekong River Commission. (2016). Strategic Plan 2016–2020. [pdf] Available at: www.mrcmekong.org/ assets/Publications/strategies-workprog/MRC-Stratigic-Plan-2016-2020.pdf [Accessed on 5 Aug. 2017]. Metz, D. (2010). Saturation of Demand for Daily Travel. Transport Reviews, 30, pp. 659–674. Oster, C.V., Strong, J.S. and Zorn, C.K. (2013). Analyzing Aviation Safety: Problems, Challenges, Opportunities. Research in Transportation Economics, 43, pp. 148–164. Phun, V.K. and Yai, T. (2016). State of the Art of Paratransit Literatures in Asian Developing Countries. Asian Transport Studies, 4(1), pp. 57–77. Reveley, J. and Tull, M. (2008). Port privatisation: the Asia-Pacific experience. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar Publishing. Sayasouk, K. (2017). Analysis of Passengers’ Satisfaction with Waterway Transport along Mekong River in Lao PDR. Master Thesis. Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, Japan. Scheiner, J. (2017). Mobility biographies and mobility socialisation—New approaches to an old research field. In: J. Zhang, ed., Life-oriented Behavioral Research for Urban Policy, Tokyo: Springer, pp. 385–401. Spooner, D. (2011). Urban Informal Transport Livelihood Profile. [pdf] Available at: http://global-labour. net/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Spooner-D.-2011.-Urban-Informal-Transport-Livelihood-Profile. pdf [Accessed on 5 Aug. 2017]. Taneja, N. (2011). Trade and transport facilitation in South Asia. LAP Lambert Academic Publishing. UN. (2016). The World’s Cities 2016. [pdf] Available at: www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/ publications/pdf/urbanization/the_worlds_cities_in_2016_data_booklet.pdf [Accessed on 7 Aug. 2017]. UN-ESCAP. (2005). Review of Developments in Transport in Asia and the Pacific 2005. [pdf] Available at: www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/publications/Review2005.pdf [Accessed on 5 Aug. 2017]. UN-ESCAP. (2007). Review of Developments in Transport in Asia and the Pacific 2007. Special Issue: Emerging Issues and the Busan Ministerial Conference on Transport. [pdf] Available at: www.unescap. org/sites/default/files/publications/Review2007_specialissue.pdf [Accessed on 5 Aug. 2017]. 23

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UN-ESCAP. (2009). Review of Developments in Transport in Asia and the Pacific 2009. [pdf] Available at: www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/publications/review2009.pdf [Accessed on 5 Aug. 2017]. UN-ESCAP. (2011). Review of Developments in Transport in Asia and the Pacific 2011. [pdf] Available at: www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/publications/Review2011.pdf [Accessed on 5 Aug. 2017]. UN-ESCAP. (2013). Review of Developments in Transport in Asia and the Pacific 2013. [pdf] Available at: www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/publications/Review%20of%20Delopments%20in%20Transport %20in%20AP_2013_full_text.pdf [Accessed on 5 Aug. 2017]. UN-ESCAP. (2015). Review of Developments in Transport in Asia and the Pacific 2015. [pdf] Available at: www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/publications/Review%20of%20Developments%20In%20transport %202015.pdf [Accessed on 5 Aug. 2017]. UN-Habitat. (2013). State of the world’s cities 2012/2013: prosperity of cities. New York: Routledge. Urry, J. (2000). Sociologies beyond societies: mobilities for the twenty-first century. New York: Routledge. Van Es, M. (2010). Transport and Logistics in the Greater Mekong Sub-region. Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, Bangkok, Thailand. [pdf] Available at: https://data.opendevelopmentmekong.net/ dataset/ba663577-f080-48d7-ae52-ec415691e82a/resource/ecc05004-819e-4aa6-9abe-8cd1cf68c3a3/ download/transport-and-logistics-in-the-greater-mekong-region.pdf [Accessed on 5 Aug. 2017]. Zhang, J. (2014). Revisiting the residential self-selection issues: A life-oriented approach. Journal of Land Use and Transport, 7(3), pp. 29–45. Zhang, J., Li, G., Nugroho, S.B. and Fujiwara, A. (2013). Paratransit-adaptive transportation policies for transition to sustainability in developing countries. In: A. Fujiwara and J. Zhang, eds., Sustainable Transport Studies in Asia, Tokyo: Springer, Chapter 6. Zhang, J., Chikaraishi, M., Xiong, Y., Jiang, Y. and Seya, H. (2016). Young people’s life choices and travel behavior: State-of-the-art and future perspectives. A discussion paper for the Workshop “Young People’s Life Choices and Travel Behavior” at the 95th Annual Meeting of Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, 10–14 January. Zhang, J., Kuwano, M., Chikaraishi, M. and Seya, H. (2017). The car-dependent life. In: J. Zhang, ed., Life-Oriented Behavioral Research for Urban Policy, Tokyo: Springer, pp. 97–122.

24

Part I

Transportation systems

2 High-speed railways in Asia Cheng-Min Feng, Jen-Jia Lin and Yun-Cheng Lai

2.1 Introduction The high-speed railway (hereafter, HSR) is a type of rail transport that operates significantly faster than conventional railway systems. HSR started its development a half century ago and has been hugely developed in recent years in Asia. The first HSR system, named “Shinkansen”, began operations in Japan in 1964. In the past decade, a further three Asian regions started their own HSR services: South Korea in 2004 (Korea Train eXpress, KTX), Taiwan in 2007 (Taiwan High Speed Rail, THSR), and Mainland China in 2008 (China Railway High-speed, CRH). Moreover, numerous Asian countries including India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam are planning or discussing their HSR projects now. The existing Asian HSR systems were developed in different ways and using different technologies, and their experiences are valuable for reference by future HSR projects in Asia. Although HSR originated in Asia, the existing international literature provides a limited review of the current Asian HSR systems and the newly developing HSR projects in Asia lack sufficient information for their development. There are few existing articles reviewing HSR systems in Europe, such as Gutierrez, Gonzalez, and Gomez (1996) and Vickerman (1997), and they provide valuable reference points for newly developing HSR projects. Since Asian societies are somewhat different from European societies, the European experiences of HSR planning and impact should not be the only reference for newly developing HSR projects in Asia. Consequently, systematically reviewing Asian HSR systems and figuring out their meanings to future HSR projects are an important task now. This chapter aims at reviewing the development history and experiences of existing Asian HSR systems in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Mainland China and exploring issues and future challenges from the viewpoints of practice and research. The rest of this chapter is organized as follows. Section 2.2 reviews the four Asian HSR systems with regard to their development history, networks and services, passengers, socioeconomic impacts, and station developments. Based on the discussions in Section 2.2, Section 2.3 discusses issues and challenges for the references of future HSR projects and academic researches. Finally, Section 2.4 highlights the major findings and arguments of this chapter as well as their potential values for academic societies and future HSR projects. 27

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2.2 Developments The development of HSR has become a widespread phenomenon around the world. Many regions introduce HSR to accommodate the booming demand in intercity travel along with other positive impacts on land utilization and economy. Developing HSR in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Mainland China has brought about the following general benefits (Feng, 2015):    

Provide intercity transportation services with higher speed and capacity. Provide a safer, more reliable, energy efficient and environmentally-friendly mode. Enlarge the one-day-activity zone in national spatial network. Promote local economy prosperity through transit-oriented development around the stations.

2.2.1 History and ways of development 2.2.1.1 Japan The HSR in Japan, also known as Shinkansen, has been planned and constructed as an exclusive corridor linking major cities in Japan (Perl and Goetz, 2015). Shinkansen literally means “new main line” and aims to replace the existing intercity services on the conventional route with brand new routes and high-speed trains. Figure 2.1 demonstrates the growth in length of the Shinkansen system. There were new lines or extensions being constructed every decade, resulting in a steady growth of about 500w550 kilometers per decade. While most of the Shinkansen tracks were constructed as exclusive right-of-way, the Yamagata and Akita Shinkansens were built on the existing conventional corridor by widening the gauge from 1,067 mm to the standard gauge (1,435 mm) but keeping the loading gauge the same (also known as mini-shinkansen). Minishinkansen is a way to significantly reduce construction time and cost for areas without enough ridership to support a full-scale exclusive HSR system.

Length of Shinkansen Network (Km)

3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500

1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

0

Figure 2.1 28

Length of Shinkansen network (km)

High-speed railways

The current Shinkansen network is 2,892 km in length with eight lines and two types of tracks: (1) dedicated HSR tracks (Tokaido, Sanyo, Tohoku, Joetsu, Hokuriku, and Kyushu Shinkansens); and (2) improved conventional tracks (Yamagata and Akita Shinkansens). In March 2016, the Hokkaido Shinkansen was open from Shin-Aomori to Shin-Hakodate-Hokuto. Besides that, there are three lines under construction: Hokuriku Shinkansen extension to Tsuruga, Hokkaido Shinkansen to Sapporo and Kyushu Shinkansen to Nagasaki. In 2014, the Central Japan Railway Company (JR Central) also started the construction of Chuo Shinkansen adopting a Maglev system with a top operating speed of up to 505 kph. The first part of the route from Tokyo to Nagoya is planned to be open in 2027, and the second part from Nagoya to Osaka is planned to be completed by 2045. This next generation HSR system can reduce the travel time between Tokyo and Nagoya from 102 minutes to only 40 minutes, and Tokyo and Osaka from 153 minutes to 67 minutes.

2.2.1.2 South Korea The network development of the Korean HSR, i.e. “KTX” (Korea Train eXpress), is similar to the development of the TGV network. Since the gauge of the conventional system is the same as the HSR (i.e., standard gauge), the HSR system was designed as a hybrid system with dedicated highspeed lines, interconnected branch lines with the conventional rail, and shared stations with regular trains (Perl and Goetz, 2015). As of 2015, the KTX network is 1,400 km with eight lines, which consists of three types of tracks: high speed tracks only for KTX, improved conventional tracks, and original conventional tracks. Since the first section between Seoul and Daegu was opened in 2004, the KTX network is still increasing according to its network expansion plan. The hybrid network provides flexibility for KTX to mix the use of existing rail infrastructure, especially stations and tracks in the urban area, and the high speed from the truck line. According to the network plan for 2020, the KTX network will reach 2,300 km in total with a combination of 700 km of new tracks and 1,600 km of improved tracks.

2.2.1.3 Taiwan Similar to Japan, the HSR network in Taiwan is also built as an exclusive right-of-way. There is only one HSR line with a 345 km track linking the major cities in the western corridor of Taiwan. Since 95% of the population is concentrated in this area, it is intuitive to construct an HSR network along this corridor. Besides that, the shared use of the right-of-way or station tracks with the conventional railway is never an option because of the difference in gauge. Few of the stations are however built together with the conventional railway stations to improve the accessibility for passengers. The line has been operating since 2007 with eight of the 12 planned stations. Four more stations were added into the network in 2016 (in Nangang, Miaoli, Changhua, and Yunlin). There are proposals to extend the system to Pingtung (a city south of Kaohsiung); the Taiwanese government (MOTC) is currently studying this possibility.

2.2.1.4 Mainland China HSR services in Mainland China were officially started in 2008 with the introduction of the Beijing–Tianjin Intercity Railway. For the past decade, Mainland China has completed the longest HSR network in the world with 53 lines and over 17,220 km in 2014. 29

Feng, Lin and Lai

The network development of Chinese HSR adopted both exclusive right-of-way and hybrid tracks. Perl and Goetz (2015) referred to this development as “Comprehensive National Network” with both dedicated lines for passenger HSR and shared lines with HSR, conventional rail, and even freight rail. The National Grid of HSR Lines is a grid of four north–south and four east–west HSR dedicated main lines with over 12,000 km of tracks, serving as the backbone of domestic railway transportation:        

Beijing–Harbin High-Speed Railway Beijing–Shanghai High-Speed Railway Beijing–Guangzhou–Shenzhen–Hong Kong High-Speed Railway Hangzhou–Fuzhou–Shenzhen High-Speed Railway Qingdao–Taiyuan High-Speed Railway Xuzhou–Lanzhou High-Speed Railway Shanghai–Wuhan–Chengdu High-Speed Railway Shanghai–Kunming High-Speed Railway

Besides the national grid, there are also “Intercity HSR Lines”, “Improved Conventional Lines”, and “Regional HSR Lines”. The “Intercity HSR Lines” are planned to link large cities and/or metropolitan areas in the same province, usually within 500 km. The “Improved Lines” are upgraded from existing conventional lines to attain an operating speed of up to 200w250 kph. The “Regional HSR Lines” can be used both for passenger and freight and the aim is to expand the network in western Mainland China and eliminate the gaps in central and eastern Mainland China. The Chinese HSR is no doubt the fastest growing HSR network in the world and they are on their way to accomplish a 25,000 km HSR network by 2020. The comprehensive national network provides another way and additional flexibility to plan the HSR network, especially for a large country with cities spreading out in many different directions.

2.2.2 Networks and operations The networks and operations represent the supply of the HSR system. Table 2.1 is the summary of the present network and operating characteristics among these four regions. In terms of the opening year and development history, Japan has been developing HSR technology for more than 50 years and was the first HSR system both in Asia and in the world. South Korea was the second country to build HSR in Asia, and they also received a technology transfer from the French TGV system and developed their own HSR technology later on. Both Mainland China and Taiwan started their HSR services in 2007. Through several technology transfers from multiple systems throughout the world, Mainland China has developed their own HSR technologies and aims to export their systems to the world. As for the network in 2014, Mainland China has the largest HSR network in the world with 53 lines, 17,220 km route length, and 608 stations. Japan is the second largest HSR network in Asia with eight lines, 2,892 km, and 104 stations, followed by South Korea with four lines and about 1,400 km, and 36 stations. The network in Taiwan is the smallest in Asia. In terms of the average interval to next stations, both Japan and Mainland China have an interval of about 28 km. Intervals in South Korea and Taiwan are longer (over 40 km). This interval for Taiwan was reduced to about 32 km when the four additional stations were added in 2016. In terms of the construction cost, there is a wide range in Mainland China for HSR systems but in general their cost is the lowest. With mature HSR technology, Japan can also construct an 30

High-speed railways Table 2.1 Summary of present HSR networks and operations* Development

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan

Mainland China

Opening year Number of lines Total length (km)

1964 8 2,892 (including 276 improved tracks) 104 28.1

2004 4 1,400 (including 815.6 improved tracks) 36 40

2007 1 345

2008 53 17,220

8 49.3

608 28.37

1,435 320

1,435 305

1,435 300

1,435 300

487 24 million

150 37w41 million

138 47.4 million

2,600 7.2w27.5 million

5

1

1

1

Number of stations Average interval to next stations (km) Gauge (mm) Maximum service speed (kph) Number of trains per day Average construction cost (USD) Number of operators

*All data are based on 2014 data if it is not specifically mentioned.

HSR network at a reasonable cost. The construction costs of KTX and THSR are substantially higher than those in Mainland China and Japan (Preston, 2013). Among these four regions, Shinkansen is currently operating at the highest speed (320 kph). Although some of the Mainland China HSR routes were designed to operate at 350 kph, the maximum operating speed has been reduced to 300 kph due to safety and costs of operation and maintenance. With the largest network in the world, Mainland China is also operating the highest number of trains per day (over 2,600 trains). In this category, Shinkansen stands second with 487 trains per day followed by South Korea and Taiwan. The operations of Shinkansen are handled by different companies in different regions. Except for Shinkansen, HSR systems in the other three regions are provided by a single operator, respectively.

2.2.3 Passengers and performances Table 2.2 is the summary of the passenger numbers and performances of the four HSR systems in Asia. The ridership in Mainland China is the highest among the four regions followed by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. With the rapid growth of the network, Mainland China also has the highest annual growth rate at 9.64%. The annual growth rate in Japan is also pretty good at 6.28%, followed by Taiwan and South Korea. Load factor is another important factor to demonstrate the efficiency of the HSR systems. However, this attribute is not generally available in all regions. With limited data, we can at least see that the load factors for all systems are above 50% on average. In terms of on-time performance, different systems have different ways to measure the performance. The Shinkansen system measures the absolute delay of the trains and on average it is less than 30 seconds per train. Both South Korea and Taiwan use on-time percentage with a grace period. Any delay less than the grace period (such as 5 minutes) does not count as a delay. The THSR has a very good on-time percentage of over 99.6%. Mainland China does not provide this information about their systems. 31

Feng, Lin and Lai Table 2.2 Summary of HSR passengers and performances* Performance item

Japan

South Korea

Taiwan

Mainland China

Ridership (passengers/year) Annual growth rate Load factor

355 million

52 million

48 million

800 million

6.28% 62.20% (2012 Tokaido Shinkansen) < 30 seconds per train 0.281w0.353

3.30% 55.05% (2005)

5.50% 57.12%

9.64% 70%

93%

99.61%

–

0.134w0.146

0.149

0.048w0.078

35,618 29,361 6,257

1,047 (2011) 1,241 (2011) –194 (2011)

1,190 794 396

10,478 – –

On-time rate Average ticket price (USD/km) Revenue (million USD) Cost (million USD) Profit (million USD)

*All data are based on 2014 data if it is not specifically mentioned.

As for the average ticket price, Shinkansen is the most expensive HSR system in Asia. Average price in South Korea and Taiwan is about the same and the value is about half of the value from Shinkansen. Chinese HSR is the cheapest, and is about one-fifth of the Shinkansen average fare. The level of the ticket price has an influence on the revenue. Even though Mainland China has the highest ridership, its operating revenue is less than one-third of the revenue from Shinkansen. Similarly, with a slightly smaller ridership, THSR has higher revenue than the KTX. The operating cost and profit are not generally available among all regions. With the data and information available in the literature, we can generally understand that both Shinkansen and THSR are making profit from operating HSR. KTX is not profitable according to the data in 2011. As for Chinese HSR, the six major lines, Beijing–Shanghai, Shanghai–Nanjing, Nanjing– Hangzhou, Shanghai–Hangzhou, Guangzhou–Shenzhen, and Beijing–Tianjin, have started to make profit since 2015; and, the Beijing–Shanghai line is the most profitable among them. However, the operating length of the rest of the unprofitable lines accounts for 88.1% of Chinese HSR, with debt exceeding 4 trillion RMB (580 billion USD) by the first quarter of 2016 based on the financial reports of the China Railway Corporation (Zhao, 2014; Liu, 2016; Wang, Xia and Zhang, 2017).

2.2.4 Socioeconomic impacts To identify possible impacts of HSR on socioeconomic developments in the four regions, this study reviewed the previous researches of HSR impacts as listed in Table 2.3. There are two categories in these researches: (1) with-and-without comparison studies before HSR opening; and (2) before-and-after comparison studies after HSR opening. Four development issues were reviewed including demography, industry, modal split, and property price. The studies in Japan (Haynes, 1997), South Korea (Kim, 2000), and Taiwan (Lin, Feng, and Hwang, 2005; Liang, 2006; Yang, 2012) all argued that HSR encourages population migrating to areas served by HSR because of the increased accessibility and development planning of station areas. However, such influences could take time to be revealed. This study compared the population splits of HSR regions and other regions in Taiwan before and after HSR opening and found that the population re-allocation effect of HSR is still insignificant in Taiwan. The HSR 32

High-speed railways Table 2.3 Reviewed impact studies of HSR Development

Japan

Demography B: Haynes (1997); Sasaki, Ohashi and Ando (1997) Industry B: Haynes (1997); Sasaki, Ohashi, and Ando (1997); Oh et al. (2015)

Modal split

B: Oh et al. (2015)

Property price

–

South Korea

Mainland China

W: Kim (2000)

–

Taiwan

W: Lin, Feng, and Hwang (2005); Liang (2006) B: Yang (2012) W: Chen (1990); Yu (1997); B: Fu, Zhang, W: Kim Li (2000); Lin, Feng, and and Lei (2000); Park Hwang (2005); Liang (2012); Wang and Ha (2006) et al. (2012) (2006) B: Cheng (2010); Tzeng B: Oh et al. (2007); Yen (2008); Li and (2015) Tzeng (2008); Wu, Ke, and Ju (2008) B: Lee and – B: Cheng (2010); Institute of Chang Transportation (2012) (2006); Oh et al. (2015) B: Oh et al. – B: Yen (2008); Li (2009); (2015) Hu (2010); Anderson, Shyr, and Fu (2010); Yang (2011)

Note: W: With/without studies before HSR opening; B: Before/after studies after HSR opening.

regions denote the counties and cities served by HSR stations within one-hour accessing time. The yearly changing rate of population splits of HSR regions were insignificantly different before (0.15%) and after (0.16%) HSR opening. Regarding industrial developments, macro economy, general employment and specific industries were reported as being related to HSR. Li (2000) concluded a major influence of HSR construction on Taiwan’s macro economy. The South Korean study of Kim (2000) and Taiwanese studies of Li and Tzeng (2008) and Wu, Ke, and Ju (2008) argued that HSR results in a geographically balanced distribution of employment developments within a capital region or along a development corridor. Experiences in Japan (Haynes, 1997), South Korea (Oh et al., 2015), and Taiwan (Chen, 1990; Liang, 2006; Lin, Feng, and Hwang, 2005; Tzeng, 2007; Yen, 2008; Yu, 1997) revealed that HSR was positively related to distributions of employment opportunities. Three specific industries were reported to be significantly influenced by HSR. The domestic flights in Japan (Clever and Hansen, 2008), South Korea (Park and Ha, 2006), Taiwan (Cheng, 2010), and Mainland China (Fu, Zhang, and Lei, 2012) were all negatively influenced by HSR. They significantly lost market shares of short or median distance airlines, of which origins and destinations were also served by HSR. In contrast, tourism in Mainland China (Wang et al., 2012) and the convention industry in South Korea (Oh et al., 2015) were both positively associated with the opening of HSR stations. However, Sasaki, Ohashi, and Ando (1997) argued that denser HSR networks will not necessarily contribute to regional dispersions of economic activities and populations in Japan. The above reviews imply that HSR influences on industrial developments, especially on commerce and services, should be significant, but these influences could be intra-regionally significant and inter-regionally insignificant. Compared to conventional railways, HSR decreased travel time in the four regions by about a half to two-thirds (Luo, Xu, and Zhang, 2004; Oh et al., 2015) and it thus certainly influenced modal splits of inter-city travel. The questions are what travel modes were influenced and how 33

Feng, Lin and Lai

significant the influences were. According to the evidence from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan (Oh et al., 2015; Cheng, 2010), the answers to the above questions depend on travel distances. The experiences of these three regions reveal that HSR’s market shares were mainly from passenger car uses for inter-city travel below 250 km distance, air transportation for long distance travels (250–500 km), and passenger car uses again for extra-long distance travels (over 500 km). Furthermore, the market shares of inter-city bus in the three regions were not significantly influenced by HSR and this means that the target passengers between inter-city bus (low cost and long/unstable travel time) and HSR (high cost and short/predictable travel time) are significantly different. An interesting change has happened with regard to conventional railway. The HSR in Taiwan has not negatively influenced conventional railway’s market share because the Taiwan Railways Administration (TRA) adjusted its target passengers to short-median distance travelers in western Taiwan. However, the market share of conventional railway in South Korea dramatically declined after HSR opening. The South Korean evidence provided by Oh et al. (2015) reveals a general influence of HSR on land prices in station areas, that is, new station areas enjoyed much more growth than old station areas and national averages. As for Taiwan, the previous studies of HSR influences on property prices reached diverse conclusions among HSR stations. The stations in northern Taiwan including Taipei, Taoyuan, Hsinchu, and Taichung were positively related to the property prices of neighboring areas (Hu, 2010; Yang, 2011; Yen, 2008) while the stations in southern Taiwan including Chiayi and Tainan were unrelated to the property prices (Anderson, Shyr, and Fu, 2010; Li, 2009; Yen, 2008). There are two possible reasons for explaining this difference. One reason is that the real estate market in the south has been less active than that in the north for many years; and, the other reason is that Chiayi and Tainan stations are both located far away from existing urban areas.

2.2.5 Station area developments 2.2.5.1 Japan According to Oh et al. (2015), there are three location types of HSR stations in Japan—type 1: a new HSR station with a new urban development; type 2: a new HSR station along an existing HSR or conventional railway; and, type 3: an expansion of an existing station along a conventional railway. Among these location types, station areas of types 1 and 2 were usually agricultural areas and type 3 were commonly urbanized areas before the HSR stations were opened. Owing to different contexts, the Japanese HSR station areas have various development performances. Oh et al. (2015) reviewed 11 Japanese HSR station areas, which belong to three location types, and concluded that three types of development performances exist among them. The first performance type includes successful cases, which are well developed with regard to both station buildings and neighboring areas. The successful cases, including Shin-Yokohama, Shin-Osaka, Sakudaira, Shinagawa, Sendai, and Karuizawa stations, are all located at type 2 or type 3 locations with railway connections to existing city centers, clear development plans, and timely and effective implementations. The second performance type features problematic cases, whose developments are limited in and around stations without spillover effects on surrounding areas. There are three station areas belonging to problematic cases. The Gifu-Hashima station area is located at a type 1 location and was not served by any railway connection to the central city (Gifu City) until 1982, which was 18 years after the opening of the station. Because of a lack of development plans and timely railway connections, the land uses around the station have not been intensified and public uses and services for passengers are very limited in and around the station. 34

High-speed railways

Step 1: Determine future urban structure

Figure 2.2

Step 2: Choose targeting areas for development

Step 3: Select an institution for development

Step 4: Implement development projects

Decision-making process for urban development in Japan

The Nagoya and Kyoto station areas are at type 2 locations. They have successful redevelopments of station buildings but the building redevelopments were not accompanied by redevelopments of the surrounding areas. Consequently, these two stations cannot act as bases of area developments. The third performance type is that of limited cases, which have limited developments for both station buildings and surrounding areas. There are two cases, which are located at type 3 locations, and belong to the limited impact cases because of different reasons: Hachinohe station, because of its young age (opened in 2002), and being located far from the downtown and lacking development plans; and, Kagoshima-chuo station, because of limited land adjustment and station plaza developments. The above experiences imply that making and implementing station area development plans in coordination with HSR opening is related to successful station area development. Oh et al. (2015) described the decision-making process for urban development in Japan as shown in Figure 2.2. Step 4 of the process emphasizes that timing of development is important because the relationship between the demand for land and its price is critical to success.

2.2.5.2 South Korea Based on Oh et al. (2015), there are two kinds of HSR stations in South Korea. An old station means an existing station along a conventional railway, and a new station denotes a station newly created for HSR and usually located at sub/exurban areas. As for old stations, such as Yongsan, Daejeon, Dongdaegu, and Busan stations along Gyeongbu HSR Line, urban regeneration projects conducted by private enterprises, the Korail or local governments are the major approach to developing station areas. Since a regeneration project is usually complex and takes time to be implemented, most of the old station areas are not progressed within their planned time frames. The barriers causing development delays include project financing, noncooperation among agencies, and the worldwide recession around 2008. As for new stations, such as Gwangmyeong, Cheonan-Asan, Osong, Gimcheon-Gumi, Singyeongju, and Ulsan stations along Gyeongbu HSR Line, new town or community projects conducted by local governments are the major approach for developing station areas. Some of them are developed well (e.g., Cheonan-Asan and Gimcheon-Gumi) with support from central government and private enterprises; however, the others are not developed within their planned time frames because of lacking a feeder transportation system, the execution body’s capability and coordinated law systems. Furthermore, the relationship between land uses and HSR within a station area could be noted. For example, the Gwangmyeong station area is developed as a residential and commercial district and large-scale retail stores such as COSTCO and IKEA were opened in this district. However, some land uses are auto-oriented and are not related to public transit systems. For instance, people usually go to COSTCO or IKEA by driving private passenger cars because they need to carry massive commodities back home. In such cases, land uses and HSR could be developed independently in a station area and result in inefficient operations. 35

Feng, Lin and Lai

To speed up station area developments, Oh and Lee (2013) identified the following key factors: (1) leading development plans; (2) simultaneous development with access transport; (3) financial strategies to avoid sensitivities to economic recession; (4) efficient legal system; and, (5) leadership of executing organization, clear role of each body, and institutional collaboration. By integrating the above factors together, a policy of creating KTX Economic Zones was proposed. This policy contains three significant strategies as follows: (1) develop transport hubs around HSR stations and realize transit-oriented developments combining business, commercial, and residential functions with inter-modal transport centers; (2) identify economic and regional specializations, which are significant to create local-based industries, for each station area; and, (3) harmonize station area developments with existing central business districts.

2.2.5.3 Taiwan Apart from Taipei, Banqiao, and Zuoying stations, which are located at conventional railway stations within city centers, the other HSR stations are located at sub/exurban areas. These sub/exurban station areas are developed in a new town approach as shown in Figure 2.3. The approach includes two major means: one deploys Station District Plans (SDPs) via the urban planning process; and, the other one is improving connections between a new town and the existing city center by public transit systems (railway, metro, or feeder bus). By implementing the above means, station area developments obtain accessibility benefits from HSR and HSR gets ridership from local developments. This kind of win-win strategy has been widely implemented in Taiwan (Feng, 2015) and Mainland China (Chen, 2012). There are eight SDPs, of which five are HSR stations that came into operation in 2015. These SDPs have been given different functions tailored to the local development characteristics. For instance, because Taoyuan station is located near to the Taoyuan International Airport, the Taoyuan SDP has taken advantage of being positioned as an international business park. The planned population for each SDP ranges from 20,000 to 60,000 and the planned areas are between 135 hectares and 963 hectares. In each SDP, a commercial/manufacture park (C/M park) is planned near to the HSR station. The land use regulation for C/M parks is flexible, ranging from company headquarters, research and development (R&D) and design centers, to convention centers, financial districts, or entertainment and shopping centers. There are 152.63 hectares of C/M parks, out of a total SDP area of 3,331 hectares. The government is responsible for the development of C/M parks. To deploy SDPs, the government takes the approach of zone expropriation based on the laws of “Statute for Encouragement of Private Participation in Transportation Infrastructure

New Town Approach • Station District Plan • Connections between new town and existing city center

Figure 2.3

New town approach for sub/exurban HSR stations areas in Taiwan

Source: Feng, 2015.

36

High-speed railways

Projects” and “Statute of Implementation of Zone Expropriation”. The zone expropriation of the five SDPs was publicly announced on 29 March 1999 and the urban plans were publicly announced on 20 October 1999. Zone expropriation is a mean of land readjustment and a selffinancing land administrative measure (Chen, 2002). Through the zone expropriation, a group of separate land parcels are assembled within the framework of a comprehensive plan into a unified site which can then be subdivided for development purposes. To process zone expropriation, the finance to implement it has to be proven as feasible, that is, self-financing. To assure the selffinancing, the area of zone expropriation is set larger than the area of the station area. It includes the land of the station area, the land to be returned to the landowners, and the land for recovering the zone expropriation cost. This cost recovery land is temporarily owned by the government and will be sold on the open market to recover the costs of public facilities such as roads, parks, and schools in the area of zone expropriation. Through this zone expropriation method, the government can effectively acquire the station area land and promote developments of SDPs, and the landowners can redeem 40%–50% of their expropriated area in principle without loss of their rights. Although the land redeemed is reduced as compared with the original area, the land value will, however, greatly increase due to up-zoning of land use. Besides, the living environment can be improved because the government has a comprehensive plan and is responsible for the construction of public facilities in the area of zone expropriation. Three governmental agencies (the Bureau of High Speed Rail [BOHSR], the Ministry of the Interior, and local governments) are involved in the zone expropriation. Each agency plays its own role to complete the expropriation process and share a certain percentage of the profit generated from land disposal after tendering. In terms of the tasks, the BOHSR mainly takes charge of drafting master plans and expropriation plans. The Ministry of the Interior is basically the public agency of chief executives of zone expropriation. It is responsible for completing the work in a timely manner and provides necessary assistance and coordination in the scope of urban planning. Furthermore, local governments primarily act as developers of the land expropriation.

2.2.5.4 Mainland China The Chinese HSR station areas are developed with various features. Lin and Ma (2012) selected seven well developed HSR station areas in Mainland China and analyzed land uses within these areas. They found the major floor uses in these station areas (within a 20-minute walking distance of a station) are commerce (7.71%), hotel (6.95%), office (25.27), and housing (56.17%). Based on land uses, four development models of HSR station areas were identified in Mainland China. The first model is balanced development (Guangzhou East station), in which there is no single use exceeding 50% of the total floor area in an HSR station area. The second model is business-oriented development (Shenyang North station), in which more than a half of the total floor area is used as offices and the second major floor use is hotel. The third model is housing-oriented development (Kunshan, Tianjin, Wuxi and Shanghai stations), in which more than half of the total floor area is used for residences. The last type is trade-oriented development (Hefei station), in which more than 21% of the total floor area is commercial uses, with numerous large retail and wholesale stores located here. What factors are associated with HSR station area developments in Mainland China? Lin (2011) answered this question by analyzing 17 station areas along six HSR lines in Mainland China. A station area was defined as spaces within a 20-minute walking distance of an HSR station. He used the average yearly increase of building floor area as an index to denote the development level of a station area; and, he observed the correlation coefficients between this index and the 12 factor indexes, which represent attributes of stations and cities. The empirical evidence of this study is listed in Table 2.4 and shows that HSR station area developments were 37

Feng, Lin and Lai Table 2.4 Correlation coefficients to the average yearly increase of building floor area Perspectives

Indexes

Correlation coefficients

City developments

City population City production value per capita Urbanization City population density City building floor area Station building floor area Passenger flow Passenger flow/city population Daily average trains Travel distance to city center Travel time to city center Available lands for development in a station area

0.1491 0.5412 0.3158 0.0328 0.1775 0.2837 0.5238 0.2307 0.3894 0.6113 0.5055 0.0491

City land use Station attributes

Station accessibility Station area

Note: N = 17; data source is Lin (2011).

moderately related to city production values per capita, station passenger flows, travel distances to city center, and travel time to city center (i.e., correlation coefficient = 0.5–0.6). Although the number of observations is quite small to be confident about the results, the empirical findings draw a hypothesis that urban economic development, station flow, and station accessibility could be major factors affecting HSR station area developments.

2.3 Issues and challenges According to the development experiences of the four regions, there are six issues related to network planning, market competition, technology innovation, project financing, social equity, and station area development that are worthy of consideration for future research. (1) HSR network development The HSR network can be planned and designed as an exclusive corridor, hybrid corridor, or comprehensive national network. An exclusive corridor generally has high on-time percentage and reliable services due to the less complicated operations with dedicated track, stations, and rolling stock. Hybrid network combines the benefit of dedicated high-speed mainline track and the benefit in using existing stations and tracks in urban areas. The accessibility of the hybrid system is generally better than an exclusive corridor but the service reliability of the HSR is often hampered by the shared corridor with conventional trains. The decision on which type of network to choose should be made based on cost, travel time, convenience, and reliability. Comprehensive national network is the most flexible selection and is intuitive and suitable for a large continental network. Within this network, planners still have to decide the selection of exclusive right-of-way or hybrid network for each corridor but should keep the continental network in mind for connectivity and efficient operations. To determine the optimal HSR network alternatives and right-of-way types of links, planners need efficient methods to assist their network planning works. The existing studies of the network design problem (NDP) in literature are mostly developed for roadways, urban transit, logistics, conventional railways, airlines, shipping, and energy supply (Lin and Liao, 2016); therefore, the NDP for HSR has not been well explored in the literature and is worthy of study in the future. 38

High-speed railways

(2) Competition with airlines Airlines are the main competitors of HSR systems, especially for long distance travel. Based on the modal split data in Oh et al. (2015), HSR has clear advantages over the airline services up to about 800 km. Evidence can also be found from other regions. The Taiwan HSR took over all the market share from Taipei to Kaohsiung (i.e., 345 km in distance) so the airline services on this corridor were eliminated a few years ago. As for Seoul to Busan (i.e., 408 km in distance), the market share of the KTX is 63%, and only 15% is by air. However, beyond 800 km, airlines can offer faster transportation and sometimes even cheaper services to take over the market. The substantial increase in low cost airline services in Asia may affect the market threshold between airlines and HSR services and is something that future research should look into. (3) Pursue higher speed One possible way to improve the advantages of HSR over airline services is to run at a higher speed. For the common high-speed systems with steel wheel and rail, though it is possible to increase the operating speed of the train to 350 kph or even 400 kph, the maintenance cost in both rolling stock and infrastructure is also increased exponentially to prevent profitability. Therefore, other kinds of high-speed ground transportation systems have been proposed as the next generation of HSR, such as the Maglev system and Hyperloop. Most of the proposals are still in their conceptual phases except for JR Central which started construction of the Chuo Shinkansen with a Maglev system in 2014, and plans to complete the section between Tokyo to Nagoya by 2027 followed by Nagoya to Osaka by 2045. The maximum operating speed on this line will be 505 kph, which will significantly reduce the travel time on this corridor. The cost of this route will be 9 trillion JPY for 438 km, i.e., 170.7 million USD per km. The average cost will be more than five times of the current HSR system since over 90% of the route has to be in tunnels or underground mainly due to noise. This kind of price tag may not be suitable for most regions who are considering building Maglev HSR right now. To promote HSR to more regions in the world, two issues of technology innovation could be essential for future research: elevating train speed and declining implementation cost. (4) Financing Project financing is a key component of a successful HSR project. Among the four regions in Asia, almost all the HSR projects were funded by the government, except for THSR. To reduce the financial burden to the government, Taiwan adopted a build-operate-transfer scheme for their HSR project. In addition, the THSR project took advantage of the efficiency of the private sector to complete the project in time. However, during the construction period, the THSR encountered difficulties with raising funds under the Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) scheme. The government eventually stepped in and provided a bank guarantee to resolve the problems. The key lesson learnt from the BOT scheme is to establish the base of a tri-party contract, including government, private investor, and lending bankers (Feng, 2015). There are some studies in the literature exploring financing models of BOT projects (e.g., Chang and Chen, 2001) and negotiation models of BOT contracts (e.g., Chen, Lin, and Wang, 2012) for HSR. However, the questions of whether BOT is a suitable approach to develop an HSR project, and how a BOT contract should be negotiated for an HSR project to meet the goals of sustainability are still waiting to be studied. (5) Equity HSR could further benefit environments by efficiently using energy and reducing pollution and it could also make inter-city travel even more efficient, but it has raised an inequity issue related to spaces and industries. The reviews of socioeconomic impacts in Sub-section 2.2.4 39

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observed that HSR encourages population and job opportunities moving to areas served by HSR because of elevated accessibility. Such effects change relative accessibilities and opportunities of different places and thus result in an inequity on development conditions among places. The inequity issue among spaces has not been well explored in the literature and is worthy of further research in the future to make HSR a real sustainable transport system. Furthermore, HSR significantly reduces the market shares of aviation and conventional railways and thus results in an inequity of development conditions among transportation industries. How did HSR affect the other transportation industries? What problems are caused by HSR effects on transportation industries and what solutions are able to be considered to solve the problems? Although the former question has been partially answered in the previous research, the latter question has not been well answered in the literature. (6) Successful station area developments The experiences of the four regions illustrate numerous determinants to a successful HSR station area development. The Japanese experience emphasizes that implementing good and timely development plans is important; the Korean experience shows that relationships between land uses and HSR are essential; the Chinese experience denotes that developments of a host city (economy, travel demand, and accessibility) matter, and the Taiwanese experience suggests that the state plays critical roles in deploying HSR station area developments in terms of institutional and legal supports. Is each country/region’s experiences meaningful to the other regions? Will these successful conditions be meaningful to future HSR projects in the other regions? Is it possible to develop a general theory about the conditions of successful HSR station area developments? These questions are waiting for answers from future academic research.

2.4 Conclusions Networks and operations represent the supply of the HSR system. As for the network in 2014, Mainland China has the largest HSR network in the world with 53 lines and 17,220 km route length. Japan is the second largest HSR network in Asia with eight lines and 2,892 km, followed by South Korea with four lines and about 1,400 km. The network in Taiwan is the smallest in Asia. The ridership in Mainland China is the highest among the four regions followed by Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. With the rapid growth of the network, Mainland China also has the highest annual growth rate at 9.64%. The annual growth rate in Japan is also fairly good at 6.28%, followed by Taiwan and South Korea. With limited data, we can at least see that the load factors for all systems are above 50% on average. In terms of construction cost, there is a wide range of costs in Mainland China for HSR systems but in general their costs are the lowest. With the mature HSR technology, Japan can also construct HSR networks at a reasonable cost. The construction costs of KTX and THSR are substantially higher than those in Mainland China and Japan. With the operational data and information available in the literature, we can generally understand that both Shinkansen and THSR are making a profit from operating HSR. KTX is not profitable according to the data in 2011. As for Chinese HSR, few lines have been profitable since 2015 but most of the other lines (88.1% of the network) are unprofitable. The socioeconomic impacts of HSR systems among the four regions have some similarities and differences in terms of demography, industry, mode choices, and property prices. In general, the impact trend in demography, industry, and mode choices is similar while the property price impact is somewhat different. HSR encourages population migration to areas served by HSR 40

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while such influences could take time to be realized. Regarding industrial developments, the influences of HSR on commercial and service industries could be intra-regionally significant and inter-regionally insignificant. As for competition with other transport systems, HSR’s market share comes mainly from passenger car uses for inter-city travel below 250 km distance, air transportation for long distance travels (250–500 km), and passenger car uses again for extra-long distance travels (over 500 km). The service operation of HSR has impacts on the inter-city modal share, especially in causing a substantial decrease in airline service within the competitive 800 km. How to develop the strategies of intermodal cooperation in order to achieve seamless public transportation objectives is an important challenge. The South Korean evidence reveals that new station areas enjoyed much more land price growths than old station areas and national averages; however, the Taiwanese evidence reveals that the HSR impacts on land prices varied with local real estate markets and station locations. The HSR station located in either a new town or an old town has its advantages and disadvantages. The issue of station location is not related to the choice of new town or old town but on having an acceptable connection time and cost to the HSR station. Whether the development of HSR stations is successful depends on the accessibility of stations, the existing and potential property market, and local government’s plans near to the station area. As for the straw effects on regional development, this is insignificant in the short term, but would be significant in the long term, especially for the movements of tertiary industries. From the experience of Asian HSR projects, it is found that clear policy objectives, strong governmental commitments, and financing approaches are key factors in making HSR happen. The financing approaches include the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) approach or the governmentbuild-operate approach. PPP has various forms such as BOOT (Build-Own-Operate-Transfer), BOT (Build-Operate-Transfer), BOO (Build-Own-Operate), DBFO (Design-Build-FinanceOperate), BT (Build-Transfer), and BLT (Build-Lease-Transfer), etc. Based on the development experiences of the four regions, six issues are raised for future research. They are issues of designing the HSR network, clarifying the competition relationships between airlines and HSR services, innovating HSR technologies for higher speed and lower cost, exploring innovative financing approaches, identifying HSR impacts on social equity, and developing a mechanism for successful HSR station area developments. The HSR experiences learnt from four Asian regions could be a lesson for other countries. In the future, it is necessary to compare the financial performance, the operational institutions, and the network effects, and the spatial development impacts in detail if more data are available.

References Anderson, D.E., Shyr, O.F. and Fu, J. (2010). Does High-speed Rail Accessibility Influence Residential Property Prices? Hedonic Estimates from Southern Taiwan. Journal of Transport Geography, 18(1), pp. 166–174. Chang, L.M. and Chen P.H. (2001). BOT Financial Model: Taiwan High Speed Rail Case. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 127(3), pp. 214–222. Chen, C.L. (2012). Reshaping Chinese Space-economy Through High-speed Trains: Opportunities and Challenges. Journal of Transport Geography, 22, pp. 312–316. Chen, L.F. (2002). The land use zoning control and the land expropriation system in Taiwan. In: T. Kotaka and D. Callies, eds., Taking Land: Compulsory Purchase and Regulation in Asian-Pacific Countries, Honolulu: University of Hawaii Press. Chen, T.C., Lin, Y.C. and Wang, L.C. (2012). The Analysis of BOT Strategies Based on Game Theory: Case Study on Taiwan’s High Speed Railway Project. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 18(5), pp. 662–674. 41

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Chen, Y.T. (1990). Impacts of High Speed Rail on Industrial Distributions in Taichung Metropolitan Area. Master Thesis. Graduate Institute of Urban Planning, National Chung Hsing University. (in Chinese) Cheng, Y.H. (2010). High–Speed Rail in Taiwan: New Experience and Issues for Future Development. Transport Policy, 17(2), pp. 51–63. Clever, R. and Hansen, M. (2008). Interaction of Air and High-Speed Rail in Japan. Transportation Research Record, 2043, pp. 1–12. Feng, C.M. (2015). The Issues and Lessons Learnt from Taiwan High Speed Rail. Working Chapter for EASTS International Collaborative Research Project – Intercity Transport Development in Asian Countries. Fu, X., Zhang, A. and Lei, Z. (2012). Will China’s Airline Industry Survive the Entry of High-Speed Rail? Research in Transportation Economics, 35, pp. 13–25. Gutierrez, J., Gonzalez, R. and Gomez, G. (1996). The European High-Speed Train Network: Predicted Effects on Accessibility Patterns. Journal of Transport Geography, 4(4), pp. 227–238. Haynes, K.E. (1997). Labor Markets and Regional Transportation Improvements: The Case of High-speed Trains—An Introduction and Review. Annals of Regional Science, 31, pp. 57–76. Hu, C.P. (2010). Impacts of Taiwan High Speed Rail on Housing Prices: A Case Study of Hsinchu HSR Station. Journal of Architecture and Planning, 11(2), pp. 77–88. (in Chinese) Institute of Transportation. (2012). The 5th Taiwan comprehensive transportation planning: inter-city travel demand models and parameters (1/3). Taipei: Institute of Transportation. (in Chinese) Kim, S.S. (2000). High-Speed Rail Developments and Spatial Restructuring: A Case Study of the Capital Region in South Korea. Cities, 17(4), pp. 251–262. Lee, J.H. and Chang, J.S. (2006). Effects of High-Speed Rail Service on Shares of Intercity Passenger Ridership in South Korea. Transportation Research Record, 1943, pp. 31–42. Li, C.T. and Tzeng, H.L. (2008). Changes of Science Park Locations and Industrial Network Development in Southern Taiwan in a HSR Era. City Development, 2008(Special Issue), pp. 46–75. (in Chinese) Li, Y.Y. (2000). Impacts of High Speed Rail on Urban Spatial Structure. Master Thesis. Department of Economy, Chinese Culture University. (in Chinese) Li, Y.Y. (2009). Impacts of High Speed Rail on Housing Prices in Metropolitan Areas: Case Studies of Hsinchu, Taichung, Changhua and Tainan. Master Thesis. Department of Urban Planning, National Cheng Kong University. (in Chinese) Liang, H.T. (2006). Impacts of High Speed Rail on Regional Development: A Case Study of Taiwan Island. Master Thesis. Department of Land Economy, National Chengchi University. (in Chinese) Lin, C. (2011). Research of Impact Factors of High-Speed Railways Hub Area Development in China. Urban Planning International, 26(6), pp. 72–77. (in Chinese) Lin, C. and Ma, X. (2012). Function Type and Development Model of HSR Station in China. Urban Transport of China, 10(5), pp. 41–49. (in Chinese) Lin, J.J., Feng, C.M. and Hwang, L.C. (2005). Impacts of Taiwan High Speed Rail System on Local Developments. Quarterly Journal of Transportation Planning, 34(3), pp. 391–412. (in Chinese) Lin, J.J. and Liao, R.Y. (2016). Bikeway Network Design Model for Recreational Bicycling in Scenic Areas. Networks and Spatial Economics, 16(1), pp. 9–31. Liu, C. (2016). Beijing-Shanghai Railway Most Profitable High-Speed Line in the World. The Nanfang. [online] Available at: https://thenanfang.com/worlds-profitable-railway-beijing-shanghai-earned-1billion-profit-2015/ [Accessed on 24 Jul. 2017]. Luo, P., Xu, Y. and Zhang, N. (2004). Study on the Impacts of Regional Accessibility of High Speed Rail: A Case Study of Nanjing to Shanghai Region. Economic Geography, 24(3), pp. 407–411. (in Chinese) Oh, J. and Lee, J. (2013). HSR impacts and station area development: The Korean case, KOTI-EASTS International Seminar, Seoul. Oh, J., Kwon, Y., Kim, Y., Terabe, S. and Tomari, N. (2015). International comparison on high-speed railway station area development: Japan, Taiwan and Korea. Seoul: The Korea Transport Institute. Park, Y. and Ha, H.K. (2006). Analysis of the Impact of High-Speed Railroad Service on Air Transport Demand. Transportation Research Part E, 42, pp. 95–104. Perl, A.D. and Goetz, A.R. (2015). Corridors, Hybrids and Networks: Three Global Development Strategies for High Speed Rail. Journal of Transport Geography, 42, pp. 134–144. Preston, J. (2013). The Economics of Investment in High Speed Rail: Summary and Conclusions. In: Discussion Paper of the International Transport Forum, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), No. 2013-30.

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Sasaki, K., Ohashi, T. and Ando, A. (1997). High-Speed Rail Transit Impact on Regional Systems: Does the Shinkansen Contribute to Dispersion? Annals of Regional Science, 31, pp. 77–98. Tzeng, T.W. (2007). Impacts of Taiwan High Speed Rail on Employment Distribution. Master Thesis. Department of Land Management and Development, Chang Jung Christian University. (in Chinese) Vickerman, R. (1997). High-Speed Rail in Europe: Experience and Issues for Future Development. Annals of Regional Science, 31(1), pp. 21–38. Wang, K., Xia, W. and Zhang, A. (2017). Should China Further Expand its High-speed Rail Network? Consider the Low-cost Carrier Factor. Transportation Research Part A, 100, pp. 105–120. Wang, X., Huang, H., Zou, T. and Yan, H. (2012). Effects of the High Speed Rail Network on China’s Regional Tourism Development, Tourism Management Perspectives, 1, pp. 34–38. Wu, C.H., Ke, C.C. and Ju, J.D. (2008). An Empirical Study of Taiwan High Speed Rail Impacts on Industrial and Spatial Developments in Kaohsiung-Pingtung Region. City Development, 2008(Special Issue), pp. 114–155. (in Chinese) Yang, C.H. (2012). Impacts of High Speed Rail on Transportation Accessibility in Taiwan. Master Thesis. Institute of Traffic and Transportation, National Chiao Tung University. (in Chinese) Yang, T.M. (2011). Impacts of Taiwan High Speed Rail on Urban Land Prices. Master Thesis. Department of Urban Planning, National Cheng Kong University. (in Chinese) Yen, Y.S. (2008). A Multiple Criteria Decision Making Analysis of the Impacts of Taiwan HSR station areas on Regional Development. Master Thesis. Department of Business and Entrepreneurial Management, Kainan University. (in Chinese) Yu, M.H. (1997). Impacts of Taiwan High Speed Rail on Macro Economies. Master Thesis. Department of Transportation Science, National Cheng Kung University. (in Chinese) Zhao, J. (2014). How Chinese High Speed Rail Can be Exported to the International Market (According to the Difficulty in Mexico)? Caixin. [online] Available at: http://opinion.caixin.com/2014-1112/100749963.html (in Chinese) [Accessed on 24 Jul. 2017].

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3 The Asian Highway and Trans-Asian Railway networks Origins, progress of development and prospects in the future A.S.M. Abdul Quium1

3.1 Background and the need for a regional land transport system in Asia The efforts towards establishing a global land transport system date back to the early days of the history of development. For many centuries, East, South, Central and West Asia were connected to the Mediterranean region through an extensive network of caravan track trade routes, collectively known as the Silk Road. The historic Silk Road was a successful effort in establishing a global land transport system, which for many centuries had contributed to the expansion of trade, and transfer of knowledge, technology, culture, languages and sharing of ideas.2 The historic Silk Road however did not survive the test of time. Eventually, a number of factors led to its gradual disintegration over time and its final collapse. The main factors included were growing insecurity along the routes especially after the fall of the Mongol Empire that made safe passage along the routes difficult, and the discovery of a new sea route from Europe to India in 1497. Since then, some major developments in maritime transportation had taken place, which led to prominence of maritime shipping and diminished the importance of land transport connectivity. The opening of the Suez Canal in 1869 and the steam revolution of the nineteenth century led to a remarkable growth in maritime shipping. With these new developments, maritime shipping became the predominant mode of global transportation and remained unchallenged until a few decades back. The end of World War II and the collapse of the old colonial empires marked the beginning of a new course of development in Asia. The new leaders of the Asian countries shared an urge to get their countries more closely connected. They shared the goal of better connectivity in the region and revived the interest in establishing an Asian land transport system.3 It was clear that land routes within Asia could be faster and more economical for many products and destinations. Following this, the idea of developing regional road and rail networks in Asia was initiated in the 1950s by the United Nations (UN) Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East (ECAFE), the forerunner of the present UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).4 44

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For various historical, political and topographical reasons, the land transport networks of many Asian countries are orientated towards coastal areas. As a result, inter-country land transport linkages were not well developed. In other cases, the emergence of new countries, for example in the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia, created physical and non-physical barriers to traffic flows at borders that formerly did not exist. The initiative of ECAFE also provided an opportunity to re-establish some of these former transport links and connect those links to the networks in other countries. It was also realized that the development of regional land transport networks could offer a better alternative to maritime shipping in many cases especially for trading with neighbouring countries. The growth of external trade and its changing pattern in the region is expected to be a major driving force in shaping future transport development in Asia. The share of intraregional exports increased during the past decade from 46% of total Asia-Pacific exports in 2002 to 54% in 2014, while the share of intraregional imports remained quite stable at above 50% during that period (UN ESCAP, 2015a). Countries in the region are now trading more within the region. With the changing pattern of intraregional trade, it is expected that the demand for regional land transport would also increase in the future. It is also important to note that empirical studies and actual experience suggest that the supply of more efficient land transport linkages has the potential to significantly increase cross-border trade and transport demand (Edmonds and Fujimura, 2006).5 Further, much of the economic development in countries of the Asia-Pacific region has been in coastal areas due partially to underdeveloped land transport infrastructure in deeper inland areas. The development of transnational networks through inland areas offers huge potential to generate economic development in such areas which have not benefited much from the current spate of development. This article traces the history of development of the inter-country road and rail networks initiated by ECAFE, which are now known as the Asian Highway (AH) and Trans-Asian Railway (TAR) networks. The AH and TAR networks are important regional transport cooperation initiatives aimed at enhancing the development and efficiency of road and rail infrastructure in Asia. The AH and TAR networks also support the development of Euro-Asia transport linkages as well as improving connectivity for land-locked countries in Asia.6 The article provides an account of the process of development and criteria for inclusion of road and rail links in the AH and TAR networks, progress of development in different phases, formalization of the networks through intergovernmental agreements, current state of development, challenges and potential for further development, potential benefits of regional transport infrastructure development and finally presents some conclusions.

3.2 The initial phase of development of the AH and TAR networks (until early 1970s) 3.2.1 Asian Highway The development of the AH was initiated by ECAFE at its fifteenth session, held in 1959 in Australia. The Commission endorsed the recommendation of the Highway Subcommittee to develop international highways within the ECAFE region. There was a general awareness on the part of the governments of the need to develop such links in order to foster the economic, social and cultural development of the region. In the case of landlocked countries, highway communications were considered an important means of linking those areas with the neighbouring countries and thus providing outlets for trade and commerce.7 Following the Commission’s endorsement, three working groups on international highways were convened. The main purpose of convening working groups was to propose routes to be 45

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included in the network, which would provide direct links between the capitals, important ports, production and consumption centres, and tourism sites, as well as necessary connections with landlocked countries and the European highway system. The international highway network in the region was referred to as the AH for the first time at the Commission session in 1960. Subsequently, two resolutions on AHs were adopted by the Commission in 1961 and 1962. These resolutions, among other matters, requested the relevant entities and the cooperating countries to extend assistance for carrying out pre-investment surveys, and for the planning and execution of projects that would help to complete the AH network. As a result, pre-investment studies were undertaken in AH member countries with funding support provided by the UN’s Special Fund and some donor countries. To make further progress in network planning and setting of technical standards, a Ministerial-level Asian Highway Coordination Committee and a technical bureau were also set up in 1965 and 1968, respectively. Subsequently, activities were undertaken at various levels to develop consensus between neighbouring countries on an agreed highway network structure, which gradually started to give a shape to the network. Route maps were prepared in the 1960s and six maps were published in 1972 showing road links between the member countries of that time. The initially conceived network length increased from a mere 11,000 km in 1959 to about 64,000 km in 1971.

3.2.2 Trans-Asian Railway Initially an idea for the development of an Asian Railway association was proposed in 1950. The ECAFE Secretariat prepared a working paper on the need for an Asian and Far Eastern Railway Association and the possibility of cooperation between such an organization and other international railway organizations. Recognizing its importance, this working paper was mentioned in the annual report of ECAFE of that year. The 1960 annual report of ECAFE mentioned that the railways of the region should study the problems of linking the railway networks of neighbouring countries in order to provide international connections not only between the countries of the region but also with the Middle Eastern and European systems. Following this, activities were initiated with the objective of providing a railway link between Singapore and Istanbul. The trans-national railway network in the region was referred to as the TAR for the first time in the 1967 annual report of ECAFE. The Inland Transport and Communications Committee recommended that a large railway network be created with the cooperation of all railway administrations in the region. The objective was to eventually link countries of the region with those served by the European and African systems by a TAR. On the basis of the above recommendation, ECAFE subsequently made efforts to give reality to the project for providing a continuous rail link from Singapore to Turkey via an alignment through Malaysia, Thailand, Myanmar, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and the Islamic Republic of Iran over a distance of 14,000 km. Later on, Indonesia was added to the proposal considering the shipping connections between the islands of Java and Sumatra to the Malayan Railway at Singapore and Penang.

3.2.3 Loss of momentum of the progress of development The momentum of the progress of development of both the AH and TAR networks was greatly lost after their initial phases of development. The implementation of the networks did not progress much in the 1970s and 1980s as political conditions were not favourable to the 46

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development of land transport linkages in the region at that time. Further work was affected due to prevailing domestic, regional and global political tensions and some major regional wars and conflicts which caused mistrust especially between neighbouring countries.8 The absence of political environment for regional cooperation due to such adverse conditions and closed door policies in some major countries impacted the whole region in one way or another. However, the overall political situation for the development of cross-border land transport linkages became favourable again from the late 1980s, especially after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, which marked an end to the Cold War. The dissolution of the Soviet Union also led to the emergence of land-locked independent countries in Central Asia; new borders severed the transport networks and affected their operations in Central Asia. Nevertheless, the severance of transport networks also led to an even stronger urge to establish cross-border land transport linkages throughout the region.

3.3 The Asian Land Transport Infrastructure Development (ALTID) project: a watershed in the history of development of the AH and TAR networks With the gradual improvement of the political situation in the 1980s and afterwards and more favourable economic conditions, ESCAP took the initiative to reactivate the work on AH and TAR. A renewed initiative under the Asian Land Transport Infrastructure Development (ALTID) project was launched. The ALTID project provided a region-wide framework for the development of an integrated transport network. The project focused not only on the physical integration of national transport networks through the development of the AH and the TAR, but also on the importance of accession to various international facilitation conventions to assure efficient movements of goods and people across national boundaries in the region. The launch of the ALTID project was a watershed in the history of development for both the AH and TAR networks. The project gathered a real impetus in the intergovernmental processes for the development of the networks. The basic strategy of the ALTID project was to establish specific criteria for inclusion of certain road and rail links in the networks. An identical set of criteria was adopted for consideration of road and rail links in the AH and TAR networks (see Box 3.1). These criteria were selected with emphasis to minimize the number of such routes, and to maximize the use of existing transport infrastructure. Over a period of the next ten years between 1992 and 2002, the ESCAP secretariat completed a series of studies9 under different phases for the development and formalization of the AH network covering all sub-regions. It is important to mention here that the initial AH network did not cover all the 32 Asian countries. Subsequent studies undertaken under the ALTID project facilitated the inclusion of all countries.

Box 3.1 Criteria for including specific links into AH and TAR networks 

Capital-to-capital links.



Connections to main industrial and agricultural centres.



Connections to major sea and river ports.



Connections to major container terminals and depots.

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In the case of the TAR network, four studies10 were undertaken between 1996 and 2001 for the formalization of the network. These network development studies followed similar methodologies and criteria in identifying the potential links and finally their inclusion in the proposed TAR network. These criteria included: 1) identification of potential links that satisfy the ALTID criterion as mentioned in Box 3.1; 2) conformity of the identified links with a set of technical requirements such as loading gauge, axle load and speed; and 3) compatibility of railway operation practices on both sides of national borders. Two other important factors were also taken into account in identifying the linkages: the existence of break-of-gauge points with an assessment of possible solutions to overcome this barrier, and the existence of any “missing links” which would make movements impossible along the link. The network development studies together with a series of meetings of the member countries at the subregional level helped to build consensus on agreed AH and TAR routes. The network development process helped to put the networks in place literally, link by link based on consensus especially between neighbouring countries. It required diplomacy, technical knowhow and the goodwill that ESCAP had generated with member governments over a long period of time. The most important significance of the ALTID project was its endorsement by the ESCAP member countries. This endorsement signified their acceptance in principle of the shared goal of greater transport connectivity in the region. It is therefore not surprising that later on subregional groups such the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), and South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) had taken initiatives to consider greater land transport connectivity at the subregional level by taking advantage of the possibilities opened up by the AH and TAR networks. Consequently, more dense subregional road and rail networks have emerged through consolidation and building upon the AH and TAR routes in ASEAN and ECO subregions.

3.4 Formalization of the AH and TAR networks 3.4.1 Asian Highway network The formalization of the AH network was initiated in 2002 following a mandate by the Ministerial Conference on Infrastructure in 2001. The ESCAP secretariat undertook a project on development of a regional intergovernmental agreement on the AH network. The main purpose of the project was to develop an agreed text for the agreement. In order to negotiate a consensual text for the agreement, a series of expert group meetings were organized at the subregional level, which ultimately led to the development of an agreed text. Finally, the Intergovernmental Agreement on the Asian Highway Network was adopted by an intergovernmental meeting in November 2003, and was opened for signature during the ESCAP Commission session, held in Shanghai, China, on 26 April 2004.11 On that occasion, 26 member States signed the Agreement, which came into force on 4 July 2005. As of December 2015, 30 member States are signatories to the Agreement, of which 29 are parties to the Agreement (Table 3.1). The ESCAP Secretariat provides the updated12 AH network.13 The current AH network extends from Tokyo in the east to Kapikule, Turkey in the west and from Torpynovka, Russian Federation, in the north, to Denpasar, Indonesia in the south. The network has a route numbering system. The one-digit routes are the highway routes that cross several countries in more than one subregion; two-digit route numbers are assigned to indicate the routes within subregions, including those connecting to a neighbouring subregion. A provision of three-digit numbering is also there for routes that would link the main one- or two-digit 48

Asian Highway and Trans-Asian Railway Table 3.1 Salient features of the Asian Highway network Item

Data (as of December 2013)

Number of countries linked by Asian Highway: Number of countries party to the Asian Highway Agreement: Total length (km): Number of routes:

32 29 142,804 47

Type of roads and length (km): Primary: Class I: Class II: Class III: Below Class III and others:

20,915 22,213 53,924 33,837 11,915

Notes: The AH classification and design standards included in the Agreement provide the minimum standards and guidelines for the construction, improvement and maintenance of AH routes. In those guidelines, routes are grouped into four classes: primary; class I; class II; and class III, which is specified as the minimum desirable standard. Primary refers to access-controlled asphalt or cement concrete dual carriageway highways with four or more lanes. Class I refers to asphalt or cement concrete dual carriageway highways with four or more lanes; class II refers to asphalt or cement concrete highways with two lanes; Class III refers to double bituminous surface treatment (DBST) highways with two lanes. Access-controlled means access to or exit from the highway is provided via ramps at grade-separated interchanges only. Countries have an obligation to make effort to conform to the minimum standards, both in constructing new routes and in upgrading and modernizing the existing ones.

Box 3.2 Some major benefits of the Asian Highway Agreement The work on the AH has produced many positive effects on highway development in Asian countries. The AH has been included in the national plan of many countries. The AH network has been used as a reference for the development of subregional highway development cooperation programmes. Some of the major effects can be summarized as below: 

provided basis for coordinated development of road networks at regional level;



generated interest in greater connectivity which subsequently led to the development of subregional networks;



developed common design and technical standards for highway development;



enhanced connectivity that has been supporting the growth of inter-country trade;



greater interest of development banks in financing regional road projects.

Source: www.unescap.org/our-work/transport/asian-highway/about (accessed 27 July 2017).

numbered AH routes. Each subregion has been assigned a set of two- and three-digit numbers for the routes within the subregion. The detail alignment of the AH routes are specified in the Asian Highway Agreement.

3.4.2 Trans-Asian Railway network The TAR network consists of four major corridors with each corridor presenting different characteristics in their configuration and operational characteristics. The Northern Corridor links 49

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the rail networks of China, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, the Korean Peninsula and the Russian Federation; the Indo-China Corridor links Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam; the Southern Corridor links Bangladesh, China, India, Iran, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Turkey; and the North–South Corridor links Northern Europe to the Persian Gulf. With the exception of a missing link in the Korean peninsula, the Northern Corridor characterizes a high level of operational readiness. After the definition of the network was completed, ESCAP took steps to test its operationalization and subsequently formalization. The Northern Corridor was selected as a test case considering its operational readiness. Eight countries and two international organizations participated directly in demonstration-runs of container block trains along the routes in the corridor. Finally, between November 2003 and June 2004, container block trains were run along four selected segments. These segments included Tianjin in China to Ulaanbaatar in Mongolia; Lianyungang in China to Almaty in Kazakhstan; Brest in Belarus to Ulaanbaatar in Mongolia; and Nakhodka in Russian Federation to Malacewicze in Poland. All runs along the four segments were implemented successfully. In 2004, the ESCAP Commission agreed to formalize the TAR network through an intergovernmental agreement. A draft agreement was prepared, which provided a basis for further negotiation between the countries involved. The draft agreement was subsequently reviewed and further refined at subregional level throughout 2005. An Intergovernmental Meeting held in Bangkok in November 2005 finalized the Agreement, which was adopted by the Commission at its session in Jakarta on 12 April 2006.14 The Agreement was opened for signing of the countries at the Ministerial Conference on Transport held in Busan, in November 2006, and it came into force on 11 June 2009. The ESCAP Secretariat provides the updated TAR network.15

3.4.3 Mechanisms for managing the AH and TAR Agreements The AH and TAR are not static networks. In line with the provisions of the Agreements, two separate Working Groups (WGs) were established, one for each network. The WGs comprise of government officials nominated by the networks’ respective member countries. WGs at their meetings discuss issues related to implementation of their respective Agreement including the current status, further development and proposals for inclusion of new routes, change of alignment of existing routes and amendments to the Agreement, if any. The WGs meet on a biennial basis.

3.5 Current status of development of the AH and TAR networks 3.5.1 Asian Highway The AH network does not have any missing links except a few bridges along some routes. The classification and design standards included in the Asian Highway Agreement provide the minimum standards and guidelines for the construction, improvement and maintenance of AH routes. The quality of the highways along the network is however uneven; it varies significantly between countries as well as within countries. Nevertheless, over the years countries have taken considerable measures to conform to the minimum standards, both in constructing new routes and in upgrading and modernizing the existing ones. Consequently, the quality of the network has significantly been upgraded over the years. The Asian Highway Database,16 which contains, among other things, information on compliance with minimum standards is updated using data received from member States. According to the information currently available in the database, about 11,000 km (8% of the total) of the 50

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roads in the network did not meet the minimum desirable standards in 2014. As of the end of 2014, Primary and Class I standard AH routes covered about 31% and Class II and III standard routes covered about 60% of the AH network. Between 2010 and 2014 about 5,835 km, or 4.5% of the network, were upgraded to a higher class of standards. Such upgrading of routes to a higher class of standards was also undertaken during previous periods.

3.5.2 Trans-Asian Railway As at the end of 2015, the TAR network comprises 117,500 km of railway routes of international importance serving 28 Asian member countries, 18 of which are party17 to the intergovernmental agreement on TAR. Unlike the AH network, there are many missing links along the TAR routes. A ‘missing link’ is the absence of continuity between the railway networks of neighbouring countries or an absence of continuity of railway links within the same country. Missing links between neighbouring countries exist either because the links were never constructed, or they ceased to exist due to political conflicts or long disuse. As of 2015, there is an estimated 10,000 km of missing links in the TAR network, most of which are in South-East Asia and Mongolia. The break of gauge is another issue in the development of the network. A break of gauge exists when railway lines with two different gauges meet at a point.18 Discontinuities of track gauges exist between some neighbouring countries in the TAR routes such as China and Kazakhstan, and the Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan. Such discontinuities also exist within some national railways systems such as in Bangladesh and India. There are different measures19 to overcome railway network discontinuity due to difference in track gauges. However, whatever solution is considered, a break of gauge causes interruptions in seamless railway operations and involves additional costs in railway operation. A number of initiatives are underway to develop, upgrade and construct some of the missing links along the TAR network, some of which have already been completed. Since completion of the Kerman-Zahedan section in 2008, there is now continuous rail infrastructure through the Islamic Republic of Iran, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. In 2009, a short section was completed between Thailand and Lao PDR, which marked the beginning of railway operation in Lao PDR. Currently, work is ongoing to construct the following important links along the TAR routes:     

Qazvin-Rasht-Astara section along the western coast of the Caspian Sea; this route will provide continuous rail infrastructure from Western Europe to Bangladesh. Islamic Republic of Iran is constructing a cross-border rail link to Afghanistan. Work has started on a 98-km Kars-Akhalkalaki section between Turkey and Georgia which would provide direct rail access to Turkish ports on the Mediterranean Sea. A tripartite arrangement has been made between India, Myanmar and Thailand to reconnect Myanmar by rail with India and Thailand. In China various projects are at different stages of planning or construction, to connect with Lao PDR, Myanmar and improving the existing lines to Viet Nam.

Notable success has also been achieved in the railways’ operational side. For example, longdistance cross-border railway traffic between many countries such as China and the Central Asian countries and Mongolia have increased. Chinese Railways introduced a five-days-a-week direct rail freight service in 2011 between the Port of Antwerp and Chongqing, the industrial hub in China’s southwest. Since 2011, Schenker Rail Automative has managed container trains from Leipzig and Wackersdorf in Germany to Shenyang in China. 51

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Some progress has also been made in other subregions. In 2009, a container block-train was run along the 6,500 km long route between Islamabad and Istanbul via Tehran. Since April 2016, a monthly container train service has been introduced between China and the Islamic Republic of Iran along a 10,400 km route via Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

3.6 Linking the AH and TAR networks: the development of an integrated intermodal transport system in Asia The AH and TAR networks deserve consideration for further development on their own merits. However, their functional integration through intermodal interfaces such as dry ports and inland container depots leading to the development of an integrated intermodal transport system in Asia provides further opportunity to bring greater efficiency in the overall transport process as well as making transport development more sustainable. The use of intermodal linkages through dry ports and interfaces can increase the modal share of more resource-efficient transport modes, such as railways and inland waterways. This shift would help to reduce the demand for road transport, thereby reducing the need for expanding the capacity of exiting highways and/or limiting the need for building new ones. Greater utilization of railways and inland waterways would also help to reduce the cost of freight transport, increase efficiency in the overall supply and distribution chain, and reduce the carbon footprint of freight transport. There are many good examples both within and outside the region of integrating different modes of transport through inland interfaces at suitable locations with provisions of related other services such as customs processing, bonded warehousing, distribution facilities and information and communication technology (ICT) services. In Asia, the Container Corporation of India Ltd. (CONCOR) may be mentioned as a good example. CONCOR maintains a network of 62 Inland Container Depots (ICDs) of which 48 are export–import oriented. Many of these ICDs have customs bonded warehouse facilities, are rail linked and serve as inland dry ports. Recognizing the value of developing an Asian integrated intermodal transport system with AH and TAR networks as its two important building blocks, ESCAP took an initiative in 2010 to develop an intergovernmental agreement on dry ports. In the negotiation process, the institutional, regulatory, technical and operational issues of dry ports were discussed. Subsequently, a working draft of an Intergovernmental Agreement was reviewed and refined through a series of regional meetings. The finalized draft was approved in 2012 and adopted at the Commission’s 69th session in 2013. The Agreement20 was opened for signature in the same year at the Forum of Asian Transport Ministers in Bangkok, and came into force on 23 April 2016.

3.7 Impact of the AH and TAR networks on overland trade and economic development, environmental and socio-political effects: literature review In recent years the AH and TAR networks have drawn interest among researchers. Many articles and research publications have appeared in the literature which examined the potential of the two networks including their impact on overland trade and economic development, environmental and socio-political effects in the region. This section summarizes the main findings of some of these research works. Parpiev and Sodikov (2008) investigated the impact of road upgrading and improvement on overland trade in 18 out of 32 AH network countries. Their work suggests a huge potential of overland trade expansion by the AH network. A regression based cost model was used to estimate 52

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the cost of road upgrading. An estimated $6.5 billion was required to upgrade and improve surface condition of the selected 15,842 km of roads. The gravity model approach was used to quantitatively evaluate overland trade expansion. Two scenarios of road improvement were considered: improvement of road quality indices up to 50 and 75, respectively. The results suggested that in the first scenario total intra-regional trade would increase by about 20% or $48.7 billion annually, while the second scenario predicted an increase of trade by about 35% or $89.5 billion annually. Another gravity model based study for the Greater Mekong Subregion by Edmonds and Fujimura (2006) suggested that the development of cross-border road infrastructure has had a positive effect on intraregional trade in major commodities with its elasticity in the range of 0.6–1.4. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) studies have been used to identify potential gains from regional and subregional infrastructure investments in Asia. These studies have found that Asian countries would gain significantly if appropriate investments in regional infrastructure were made along with the adoption of supportive trade policies. A CGE study by Francois and Wignaraja (2008) examined the likely effects of linking East and South Asia through a comprehensive trade agreement and increased regional infrastructure investments on trade costs and welfare gains. Their study found that a comprehensive trade agreement and increased regional infrastructure investments would lead to lower trade costs and minimum global welfare gains of $261 billion by 2017. In a more recent study by Zhai (2012), a global CGE simulation model was used to investigate the welfare impacts of regional infrastructure development in developing countries of Asia. The major conclusion that has been drawn by the study is that the developing Asian countries would gain significantly from the expansion of regional infrastructure in transport and communications.21 The quantitative analysis suggests that investment in regional infrastructure holds great promise for Asia’s long-term development. With the required annual investment, the estimated total welfare gains for developing countries in Asia were of the order of 10% of their projected gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020. CGE studies have also been undertaken at the subregional level. Similar potential gains from increased subregional infrastructure investments have been found in such studies. A study by Stone and Strutt (2009) suggested that welfare gains of $8.1 billion could be attained from moderate improvements in physical land transport and trade facilitation in the Greater Mekong Subregion. The Institute of Developing Economies (IDE) in Japan has also developed a CGE model to study such impacts. IDE conducted simulations for ESCAP on three routes which form part of the AH network and for which relevant data were available. These routes were:   

AH1: Mae Sot (Thailand) – Mandalay (Myanmar) – Dhaka (Bangladesh) – Delhi (India); AH1 + AH2: Chiang Rai/Mae Sai (Thailand) – Mandalay (Myanmar) – North-East India – Dhaka (Bangladesh) – Delhi (India) – Amritsar (India, near border of Pakistan); and AH1 + AH14: Kunming (China) – Muse (Myanmar) – Dhaka (Bangladesh) – Delhi (India).

The results of these simulation studies are positive. Although most regions (at the subnational level) remain unaffected by these projects, many will benefit. Some regions will lose but their average losses are rather small – about 0.3 to 0.4%. The potential gains of the positively affected regions are significantly larger, about 2.2 to 2.8%.22 Three scenarios were considered for the simulation studies: improvement of infrastructure, implementation of customs facilitation, and through traffic through Bangladesh and Myanmar. Total gains were most for the third scenario. An important observation that can be made from the results is that the positively affected regions 53

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have a lower regional gross domestic product (RGDP) per capita than the negatively affected regions. This implies that these regional projects may also have positive distributional impacts. Further details on the results can be found in UN ESCAP (2012). The CGE models may not fully capture the externalities from infrastructure investment and comprehensive trade agreements in a dynamic context. Madhur, Wignaraja and Darjes (2009) held the view that the CGE model estimates could be interpreted as the minimum gains from regional and subregional infrastructure and policy programmes. The actual gains could be substantially larger than the results. The AH and TAR networks have paved the way for the development of intermodal transport systems, which hold the promise to make the overall transport system economically and environmentally more efficient through the use of intermodal interfaces such as ICDs and dry ports. Such interfaces can increase the modal share of more resource-efficient transport modes and help to ease road traffic congestion and reduce emissions. Hanaoka and Regmi (2011) in their article, among other things, reviewed selected case studies of dry port development in Asia. As a case in point, the Birgunj rail-based ICD in Nepal handled 16,928 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) of containers and 237,104 metric ton (MT) of cargo in 2008/09. AH42 in Nepal and the TAR rail link from Haldia port in India (Haldia-Kolkata-Sitarampur-Patna-Raxaul-Birgunj) serve the Birgunj ICD. In the absence of such an intermodal facility, all the freight would have had to be transported by road. The estimated savings in CO2 emissions for 2008/09 were 57,687 MT, which accounted for 82% of the total road emissions. Often cross-border transport infrastructure has unintended adverse social impacts on local people. Slesak et al. (2012) studied the vulnerability of ethnic minorities to sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) and AIDS along a new AH route in northern Lao People’s Democratic Republic. The new route23 was constructed between 2004 and 2008 through remote multi-ethnic areas of the country linking a low HIV prevalence area with higher prevalence areas in bordering Thailand and China. The study assessed the HIV vulnerability in four minority villages alongside the new road using structured interviews and voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) for HIV. Of the 470 villagers aged 15–49 years old, 47.0% did not know any ways of HIV transmission. However, 82.1% of them reported sexual contacts. In the case of the last non-cohabitant sex, the majority (86/139 or 61.9%) did not use a condom. No HIV infection was detected among villagers who received VCT in 2006 (924 of 933) and 2008 (538 of 1,249). The findings of the study reveal an alarming HIV vulnerability among the ethnic minorities along the highway. Further culturally adapted prevention efforts were suggested by the researchers. The perceptions of local people about cross-border transport infrastructure may not be always positive. Lin and Grundy-Warr (2012) in their study sought to find the locals’ thoughts and feelings about the proposed bridge between Chiang Khong in Thailand and Houayxay in Lao People’s Democratic Republic. The bridge would form the crucial link along AH3 connecting Bangkok to Kunming in China. The project was expected to make a significant contribution to the development of the Greater Mekong Subregion. The perception of the locals about the bridge was used to understand the anticipatory cross-border geopolitical relations. The researchers concluded by emphasizing the need to listen to local perceptions. Potential ill-feeling among the locals could risk future cross-border geopolitical ties and trade. Neupane and Calkins (2012) in their study examined the status of poverty and income inequality in Southern Thailand along the AH network (AH18) in Songkhla province. They adopted descriptive statistics and one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) method including poverty and income inequality indices to analyse the household survey data collected in the period of July–November 2010. Findings from their study show that the average household income significantly varied by spatial location as well as between urban and rural areas. 54

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An important observation from their study was that the incidence of poverty was much lower along the AH route with the head count ratio of 1.17%.

3.8 Unlocking the development potentials created by AH and TAR networks: transforming transport corridors into economic corridors It is generally recognized that there is a linkage between transport and economic development. These linkages, however, are not always clear and well understood. While transport is necessary, it is not always sufficient for generating economic development – other intervention measures are often necessary to realize the benefits of improved transport. In view of this fact, many countries and international donors are taking a new approach to development – a coordinated multisectoral approach to economic development capitalizing on transport development along a geographic corridor. In short, a high quality transport (and logistics) corridor is developed with intermodal interfaces facilitating the development of an intermodal transport system. By transport corridor here it is meant a combination of adjacent surface transport networks linking the same major origins and destinations within a defined geographic area. A transport corridor can be transformed into an economic corridor by providing quality urban, industrial and ICT infrastructure, logistics and distribution networks that link production centres, urban clusters and international gateways within that geographic area. Such corridors allow spatial organization of economic activities; they bring together infrastructure facilities, policies and institutions, and investments to generate economic growth (ADB, 2014; Brunner, 2013; and FIAS 2008). There are national and transnational transport/economic corridors in many parts of the world. For example, in Asia such corridors exist in Japan (between Tokyo and Osaka) and in the Republic of Korea (between Seoul and Busan). India is developing such corridors between Delhi and Mumbai and some other major cities. See Box 3.3 for more on the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC). The corridors in Japan, Korea and the on-going DMIC project in India are domestic economic corridors. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a recent major transnational development initiative along AH4 that will connect Gwadar Port in southern Pakistan to the north-western autonomous region of Xinjiang in China (UN ESCAP, 2015b). There are many good examples of transnational transport/economic corridors in the Americas, Europe and Africa.24 Many AH and TAR routes and other adjacent highway and railway routes, especially along deep inland areas, have the potential to be developed as national and/or cross-border transport corridors.25 Such corridors can support economic growth in inland areas by removing infrastructure bottlenecks and improving access to wider markets. Later on, economic corridors can also be considered along cross-border transport corridors similar to domestic economic corridors. These corridors can lead to a more balanced spatial development and relieve pressure on the major coastal cities in Asia. Obviously, for this to happen other infrastructure facilities, policy interventions and institutions will also have to be in place.

3.9 Some major issues in further development of the AH and TAR networks and their integration through interfaces The overall progress in developing the AH and TAR networks since their early phases is encouraging. However both the networks require further development. In the case of the AH, about 11,000 km (or 8%) of the network does not meet the minimum class III standards. The development of some of these routes, for example in Myanmar, is critical to ensure intra-subregional 55

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Box 3.3 Delhi–Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) India has planned to develop six dedicated rail freight corridors (DFCs) linking the major metropolitan cities and industrial and consumption centres in the country. The DFCs are being developed to meet the rapidly growing transport demand in the country. One of these six DFCs is the 1,500 km long Delhi–Mumbai Western DFC linking ports in Maharashtra and Gujarat to their northern hinterlands. An industrial corridor development project is also under implementation to transform the Western DFC into an economic corridor. The Delhi–Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) project along the Western DFC corridor is a US$ 100 billion project involving some eight investment regions and some 13 industrial areas. The project also involves expansion of existing port and airport capacities and development of railway links to ports, investment zones and smart cities, and putting in place new energy and ICT infrastructure. Funds for the projects are to come from both public and private sources. The individual components of the DMIC project are at various stages of their planning and implementation. The project is expected to create three million new jobs, 67% of which would be in manufacturing. A separate organization called Delhi–Mumbai Industrial Corridor Development Corporation (DMICDC) has been established to develop and manage the project. Source: Based on information available at: www.dmicdc.com/ (accessed 27 July 2017); and other sources.

and intraregional road transport connectivity. With the growing transport demand, many sections of the AH network also need to be upgraded. Road infrastructure safety facilities along the network also need to be improved. There are an estimated 10,500 km of missing links in the TAR network. Construction costs of these missing links alone are estimated to be over US$ 25 billion. Further investments will also be required for upgrading existing routes and constructing border-crossing facilities. Intermodal facilities will also have to be developed and the existing ones upgraded along the AH and TAR networks. Huge capital investments will be required to meet the above-mentioned development needs. For most developing countries, regular allocations from their national budgets are not sufficient to meet the financing needs for the development of AH and TAR networks. Some countries have been successful in making alternative financing arrangements to meet the investment needs.26 Most other countries have remained dependent on external financing – either bi-lateral arrangements or loans from the development banks. Available resources from such sources are not sufficient, however. It is expected that additional financing available from the newly created Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) may improve the situation in the future. Nonetheless, countries will also have to explore alternative and innovative ways to finance transport development projects. An immediate goal of developing the AH and TAR networks (or for that matter any transport network) is to facilitate greater connectivity27 between countries. However, the physical network (or the hardware) alone cannot ensure connectivity. Identification of networks and their formalization by countries may be considered as a first step towards establishing a regional land 56

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transport system. The two other main elements are facilitation (or the software) and operationalization of the network. In broad terms, transport facilitation relates to operational connectivity which involves institutions and putting in place the legal and regulatory measures and other necessary rules and procedures to permit (transport) transactions or traffic flows across the national borders. The operationalization of the network relates to measures that allow parties (meaning businesses, functional networks and individual people) to function in order to make the actual transactions or traffic to flow through the borders. So far the progress on transport facilitation at the regional level is limited. However, progress has been made at the subregional level. In recent years, a number of subregional agreements have been signed in the region.28 Worth mentioning among them are: GMS Cross Border Transport Agreement (CBTA), Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Agreement on Facilitation of International Road Transport, ECO Transit Transport Framework Agreement, ASEAN Framework Agreement on the Facilitation of Goods in Transit, and Motor Vehicle Agreement between four countries in South Asia. Under the Agreement on Facilitation of International Road Transport signed in 2012 between SCO member countries,29 about 15,000 km of road routes are to be initially opened including a road between Lianyungang, China and St. Petersburg, Russian Federation. Two more ports in China and the Russian Federation will also be accessible for transit traffic to and from Central Asia. While the work on AH and TAR network development is far from over, greater efforts are needed to be made on facilitation and operationalization aspects. In this regard, ESCAP has developed a Regional Strategic Framework for Facilitation of International Road Transport which has been adopted by the member States. ESCAP is also considering the development of a similar regional strategic framework for facilitation on international rail transport along with other related works. These works need to be expedited. Once the facilitation arrangements are in place, countries may also need to consider the establishment of transnational governance structures or mechanisms at the operational level for managing the day-to-day operational issues along transport corridors.

3.10 Conclusions The AH and TAR networks are important regional transport cooperation initiatives aimed at enhancing the development and efficiency of the road and rail infrastructure in Asia and supporting the development of Euro-Asia transport linkages as well as improving connectivity for land-locked countries. An important outcome of these initiatives is that they have encouraged the Asian countries to improve connectivity as an important element in support of regional economic cooperation and integration which is vital for the continued overall development and prosperity of more than three billion people living in the region. Connectivity has become a major priority for the Asian countries, especially in the context of efforts to find new drivers of regional economic growth. There are many issues related to further development and full operationalization of the AH and TAR networks that need to be resolved. Some of these are technical and regulatory, some are also political in nature. Their resolution requires greater political willingness and deeper and accommodating understanding between countries, and further negotiation on these matters. Investment needs are also huge. It is hoped that the development banks will be able to make a greater contribution in the future. Nonetheless, countries will also have to find other alternative and innovative ways to meet the financing needs. The identification and formalization of transport networks with the consent of governments are hard tasks. The facilitation measures have even deeper legal, administrative, financial and 57

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other social and environmental cross-border implications. As such, securing intergovernmental agreements on transport facilitation may expected to be no less difficult and would require a considerable amount of effort at different levels. However, with collective political will, commitment, wisdom and understanding to support better regional connectivity, no barriers should be too difficult to overcome. The success of transport development is not in itself – but how it can help the economy grow and contribute to people’s welfare. Given this, it is important to reconsider how major transport development projects are planned, linked to developments in other sectors, and implemented. The coordinated multi-sectoral development approach with transport as a major component seems to be a better alternative than the current sectoral (or sub-sectoral) approach, and should be supported at all levels – national, subregional and regional.

Disclaimer The views expressed and analyses presented in the article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the UN ESCAP secretariat or of the member States of UN ESCAP.

Notes 1 The author is a former staff member of the UN ESCAP secretariat in Bangkok, Thailand. He gratefully acknowledges cooperation and information received from his former colleagues, especially Mr. Madan B Regmi and Mr. Pierre Chartier, both of whom, among others, were directly involved in the development and formalization processes of the Asian Highway and Trans-Asian Railway networks. 2 Interested readers are referred to Chanda (2007) to know how the Silk Road played a role in these respects. The Silk Road may be considered as one of the earliest vehicles for globalization. 3 It may be of interest to note here that many of the Asian historical capitals were located inland: Delhi, Kyoto, Mandalay and Peking, for example. Maritime transport development took place after the Europeans came (UN ESCAP, 2007). 4 The Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East (ECAFE) was renamed as the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) in 1974 in order to better reflect its Pacific constituencies. ESCAP, one of the five regional commissions of the United Nations, is the development arm for Asia and the Pacific region. ESCAP has 53 members and nine associate members; of which 32 member countries are from Asia, the rest are from the Pacific and other geographic regions. Details of membership can be found at: www.unescap.org/about/member-states (accessed 27 July 2017). 5 India launched an integrated check point (ICP) operation in 2012 at Attari on the India–Pakistan border to facilitate trading. During the first year, imports grew by 81%, and exports grew by 122% in value terms. Trucks carrying exports increased from 3,882 to 41,248, and trucks carrying import cargo increased from 19,087 to 33,599; customs revenue increased 166%. See UN ESCAP (2014b). 6 There are 12 land-locked countries in the ESCAP region. They are: Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bhutan, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Nepal, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. 7 Official Records of the Economic and Social Council, 1959, Supplement No. 2, E/3214/-E/CN.11/506, para. 307. 8 Some of these political events include alignment of most countries in the region with two superpowers and political division and tension especially between neighbouring countries; major regional conflicts (wars in Indo-China and South Asia); internal political tensions in China and Indonesia; tension in the Korean peninsula; border tension between China and the Soviet Union; Islamic Revolution in Iran; and isolation of Myanmar (Burma) after military takeover. 9 Some of these studies include: 1) Study for the Development of the AH Network (1993–1994); 2) Study on the Development of a Highway Network in Central Asian Republics; 3) Upgrading of the AH Routes (1997–1999); 4) Study on Road Network Connecting China, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, the Russian Federation and Korean Peninsula (1998–2001); 5) Promotion, development and 58

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10

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28

29

formalization of AH, Phases I through IV; 6) Development of a regional intergovernmental agreement on the AH network (2002–2003); and 7) Identifying investment needs and development priorities for the AH network and related intermodal connections and freight terminals. These four studies were: 1) Feasibility study on connecting the rail networks of China, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, the Russian Federation and Korean Peninsula (1996) – Northern Corridor; 2) Development of the Trans-Asian Railway in the Indo-China and ASEAN subregion; 3) Development of the Trans-Asian Railway, Trans-Asian Railway in the Southern Corridor of Asia-Europe Routes (1999); and 4) Development of the Trans-Asian Railway, Trans-Asian Railway in the North–South Corridor, Northern Europe to the Persian Gulf (2001). A copy of the AH agreement is available from: www.unescap.org/resources/intergovernmentalagreement-asian-highway-network (accessed 27 July 2017). The AH and TAR are not static networks. Since the AH Agreement was adopted in 2003, many new links were added to the existing routes by the countries following the specified process for such inclusions in the AH Agreement. Similar changes have also been made to the TAR network. www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/AH-map-GIS.pdf (accessed 24 November 2017). A copy of the Agreement is available from: www.unescap.org/resources/intergovernmental-agreementtrans-asian-railway-network (accessed 27 July 2017). www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/TAR%20map_1Nov2016.pdf (accessed 24 November 2017). The database is maintained by the ESCAP secretariat and may be found at: www.unescap.org/resources/ asian-highway-database (accessed 27 July 2017). Detailed information about the AH routes in each country are available in the database. The rest of the countries are yet to ratify or accede to the Agreement. The details can be found at: https:// treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XI-C-5&chapter=11&lang=en (accessed 27 July 2017). The TAR network is composed of five different track gauges: 1,676 mm (broad gauge in the Indian subcontinent); 1,520 mm (Russian gauge in Russian Federation and Central Asia); 1,435 mm (standard gauge in China, Iran and Turkey); 1,067 mm (Indonesia); and 1,000 mm (metre gauge in South-east Asia and parts of Bangladesh and India). Such measures include unification of track gauges, conversion to dual gauge, transshipment and other technical solutions involving bogies. A copy of the Agreement as well as its current status is available from: www.unescap.org/resources/ intergovernmental-agreement-dry-ports (accessed 27 July 2017). These included investments in all modes of transport – road, railway, port, airport and telecommunications. Gains and losses are defined as differences in the simulated regional GDPs in 2030 between the baseline in 2005 and each specific project scenario. Three scenarios were considered: improvement of infrastructure, implementation of customs facilitation, and through traffic through Bangladesh and Myanmar. The Asian Highway route AH3. Mention can be made of the Ports-to-Plains Corridor involving Mexico, USA and Canada; the Pan-European Corridor VIII between Italy, Albania, Macedonia and Bulgaria (there are ten such corridors in Europe); and Southern African Development Community (SADC) corridors in Africa. The Greater Mekong Subregion corridors in the Greater Mekong Subregion and Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) corridors in Central Asia are some of the present transnational initiatives to develop transport corridors in Asia. These initiatives are being supported by international organizations, development banks and bilateral donors. There are however many other potential transport corridors along the AH and TAR networks. Some examples are: Liayungang (China) – Central Asia; Bandar Abbas – Almaty; Lahore – Delhi – Dhaka; and Kathmandu – Chittagong. Such arrangements include tolls and user fees, public–private partnerships, debt financing, special funds, indirect beneficiary payments, etc. The term connectivity refers to the degree to which exchange activities are facilitated, both within and across national boundaries, and includes physical and institutional infrastructure plus functional networks which are required to make exchange activities or transactions. ESCAP estimates there are some 42 such agreements in the region, only some of these agreements are in force, however. Also, more than 100 bilateral agreements on road transport have been signed in the region. See UN ESCAP (2014a), pp. 42–46 for more on these facilitation agreements. ESCAP provided assistance to the member countries for the SCO and CBTA facilitation Agreements. 59

Quium

References ADB (2014). Developing economic corridors in South Asia. The Asian Development Bank. Brunner, H.-P. (2013). What is economic corridor development and what can it achieve in Asia’s subregions? ADB Working Paper on Regional Economic Integration, No.117. [online] Available at: www.adb.org/sites/ default/files/publication/100110/reiwp-117-economic-corridor-development.pdf [Accessed on 27 Jul. 2017]. Chanda, N. (2007). Bound together. New Delhi: Penguin Viking. Edmonds, C. and Fujimura, M. (2006). Impact of cross-border road infrastructure on trade and investment in the Greater Mekong Subregion. ADB Institute Discussion Paper No. 48. [online] Available at: www.adb.org/ sites/default/files/publication/156685/adbi-dp48.pdf [Accessed on 27 Jul. 2017]. FIAS (2008). Special economic zones – performance, lessons learned, and implications for zone development. The World Bank Group. Francois, J. and Wignaraja, G. (2008). Economic implications of deeper Asian integration. Working Paper, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University of Linz, No. 0813. Hanaoka, S. and Regmi, M.B. (2011). Promoting Intermodal Freight Transport Through the Development of Dry Ports in Asia: An Environmental Perspective. IATSS Research, 35, pp. 16–23. Lin, S. and Grundy-Warr, C. (2012). One Bridge, Two Towns and Three Countries: Anticipatory Geopolitics in the Greater Mekong Subregion. Geopolitics, 17(4), pp. 952–979. Madhur, S., Wignaraja, G. and Darjes, P. (2009). Roads for Asian integration: measuring ADB’s contribution to the Asian Highway network. ADB Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration No. 37. Neupane, H.S. and Calkins, P. (2012). Poverty, income inequality and livelihood diversification: a case of Asia Highway in Songkhla Province of Thailand. In: W. Huang and P. Leeahtam, eds., Asian Economic Reconstruction and Development under New Challenges. Chiang Mai, Thailand: CMSE Press, pp. 191–206. Parpiev, Z. and Sodikov, J. (2008). The Effect of Road Upgrading to Overland Trade in Asian Highway Network. Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics, 1(2), pp. 85–101. Slesak, G., Inthalad, S., Kim, J., Manhpadit, S., Somsavad, S., Sisouphanh, B., Bouttavong, S., Phengsavanh, A. and Barennes, H. (2012). High HIV Vulnerability of Ethnic Minorities after a Trans-Asian highway Construction in Remote Northern Laos. International Journal of STD & AIDS, 23(8), pp. 570–575. Stone, S. and Strutt, A. (2009). Transport infrastructure and trade facilitation in the greater Mekong Subregion. ADBI Working Paper Series No. 130, ADBI. UN ESCAP (2007). The first parliament of Asia, sixty years of the economic and social commission for Asia and the Pacific (1947–2007). Bangkok: UN ESCAP. UN ESCAP (2012). Growing together, economic integration for an inclusive and sustainable Asia-Pacific century. United Nations Publication, ST/ESCAP/2629. [online] Available at: www.unescap.org/sites/default/ files/themestudy2012-full.pdf [Accessed on 27 Jul. 2017]. UN ESCAP (2014a). Review of developments in transport in Asia and the Pacific 2013: transport as a key to sustainable development and regional integration. New York: United Nations Publication, pp.42–46. [online] Available at: www.unescap.org/publications/review-developments-transport-asia-and-pacific-2013. [Accessed on 27 Jul. 2017]. UN ESCAP (2014b). Regional connectivity for shared prosperity. Bangkok: UN ESCAP, p. 28. [Online] Available at: www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/Regional%20Connectivity%20for%20Shared %20Prosperity_fulltext.pdf [Accessed on 27 Jul. 2017]. UN ESCAP (2015a). Asia-Pacific trade and investment report 2015. New York: United Nations Publication, Sales No. E.15.II.F.15, p. 5. [online] Available at: www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/Full%20Report %20%20-%20APTIR%202015.pdf [Accessed on 27 Jul. 2017]. UN ESCAP (2015b). Review of developments in transport in Asia and the Pacific 2015. New York: United Nations. [online] Available at: www.unescap.org/publications/review-developments-transport-asiaand-pacific-2015. [Accessed on 27 Jul. 2017]. Zhai, F. (2012). Benefits of Infrastructure investment: an empirical analysis. In: B.N. Bhattacharyay, M. Kawai and R.M. Nag, eds., Infrastructure for Asian Connectivity. A Joint Publication of the ADBI and ADB with Edward Elgar Publishing.

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Part II

Traffic accidents, air pollution and disasters

4 Road traffic safety in Asia An analysis based on DPSIR+C framework Ying Jiang and Junyi Zhang

4.1 Introduction Our human society has suffered from traffic accidents since the birth of the first (steam-powered) automobile in 1769. Indeed, this vehicle also caused the first accident (colliding with a wall) during a driving experiment, due to poor vehicle handling.1 Even though enormous efforts (money, infrastructure, technologies, human resources, etc.) have been made to reduce traffic accidents, every year, over 1.2 million people are killed worldwide in road accidents, with 90% of the deaths occurring in low- to middle-income countries (World Health Organization (WHO), 2015). Traffic accidents are the leading cause of death among humans globally, and the number of traffic accidents continues to increase each year. Although the causes of traffic accidents are diverse (e.g., factors relating to drivers and road users, road structure, and the driving environment), human error is the primary cause. In Asia, and particularly in developing countries in Asia, the situation is more complicated, partly due to the diverse economic development levels and cultural environment, and the resulting diverse levels of transportation infrastructure development and management. Nine Asian countries—Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam—account for roughly half a million road fatalities annually (Karim and Taneerananon, 2010). In this sense, Asia is a major contributor to the growth of global traffic accidents. This chapter aims to explore traffic safety issues in Asia from a general perspective based on the DPSIR+C framework proposed by Zhang and Fujiwara (2007) in the context of environmental management.

4.2 The DPSIR+C framework for traffic safety research Of issues relating to traffic accidents, population and economic growth, expansion of urban space, and the resulting long travel distances and car-dependent lifestyle are part of major driving forces (D) that exert pressures (P) on the increase of car traffic due to the increase of car ownership. In turn, such pressures could influence driving forces in a positive or negative way. Negative influence refers to the situation where the uncontrolled or poorly controlled increase in car traffic could induce people to travel more. Positive influence implies that, for example, a proportion of the 63

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population might voluntarily reduce their car travel in response (R) to the need to change the states (S) arising from the number of traffic accidents (e.g., fatalities, injuries, and vehicle damage). Although impacts (I) can be defined in various ways, the most extreme impacts of traffic accidents are on humans (e.g., losing family members and the resulting poorer quality of life). Impacts on human society may give rise to concerns about traffic accident issues, and such concerns lead to responses such as policy decisions on the enforcement of laws and institutions, economic measures (e.g., fines for speeding behavior), the support and promotion of technological innovation (e.g., intelligent transportation systems (ITS) and vehicle safety technologies), and education (traffic safety education and social campaigns). Responses may also be adaptive, because it is difficult to have “zero-accident” driving at all times. Therefore, policies that encourage people to stop car ownership and/or usage to avoid the possibility of being involved in traffic accidents may be applicable. Responses can be applied to tackle any of the DPSI elements. In the case of driving forces, reconstructing our social system based on less car-dependent lifestyles could effectively control the occurrence of traffic accidents. Policies to reduce car traffic include the enforcement of laws and institutions by government, compliance and public involvement by citizens and firms, and technological development by firms. That said, all responses rely heavily on the capacity (C) of all the stakeholders (i.e., governments, firms, and civil society). This is conceptually illustrated in Figure 4.1. We can see that a two-way relationship exists between capacity and responses: the arrow from responses to capacity implies that lessons and experiences from previous points in time can help each actor improve their capacity. The DPSI elements can also contribute to capacity building, but in a different way.

4.3 Driving forces Car-dependent lifestyles are formed with the economic growth and expansion of urban spaces, which represent driving forces of the growth of traffic accidents in Asia as well as in other regions.

Capacity

Driving Forces

Responses

Pressures

Impacts

States

Figure 4.1 64

DPSIR+C framework

Capacity Building Capacity Influence

Road traffic safety

The population density in Asia is 144 persons per km2, with a total land area of 31,022,549 km2. According to the latest United Nations (UN) estimates,2 the population of Asia reached nearly 4.5 billion (4,475,018,363) by June 2017, making up the largest share (59.69%) of the total world population. Around 49.3% of the Asian population is concentrated in urban areas (about 2.2 billion persons). Figure 4.2 shows the changing history of population in Asia since 1955 and the predicted growth trend for the next three decades. Even though there is a decreasing trend for the share of population in Asia at the worldwide level, its total is continuously increasing. Moreover, the share of the urban population in Asia is increasing at a much faster rate than its population growth trend. This rapid growth of urbanization in Asia has occurred together with strong economic growth (Imura et al., 2005). Even after suffering from the severe economic crisis of the late 1980s, the economy in Asian countries recovered and redeveloped dramatically. A similar recovery wave of economic growth can also be identified after the global crisis in 2008–2009, where the Asian economy was not seriously impacted, in the sense that it recovered relatively quickly as shown by its gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 4.4% in 2010. Figure 4.3 shows the annual GDP per capita growth (%) in Asian countries since 2012. Even though on average the economic growth of developing Asian countries has slowed—strongly influenced by the trends of East Asian countries such as China, Korea, and Mongolia—Asian Development Outlook (2017) emphasized that developing Asia continued to perform well even as recovery in the major industrial economies remained weak, and further predicted that the GDP growth rate would reach 5.7% in 2017–2018. Actual growth rate in 2016 was 5.8% (see Figure 4.3). In many Asian countries, regional economy development is still the key issue at the national level. Although it appears that the trend of globalization has some impact on urbanization in Asia, the story is not so simple. McKinnon (2011) noted that urbanization3 cannot always be assumed to be a by-product of globalization, even in Asia (p. 40), and demonstrated the variety of ways in which urbanization—not globalization—is shaping both cities and the lives of their inhabitants (p. 41). According to World Bank (2016), even though productivity is still low in India, a combination of size, growth, potential, and protection has turned India into one of the most attractive auto markets in the world. Meanwhile, the booming development of the automotive sector in other Asian countries has contributed greatly to the growing urbanization and dramatic motorization in Asia. Regardless of which factors have driven the growth of urban population and the expansion of urban spaces in Asia, the large concentration of population in urban areas of Asia has clearly imposed a huge burden on traffic safety, even though the growth of the urban population is not homogeneous across all Asian countries/regions.4

4.4 Pressures Driven by the rapid growth of population and economic development, vehicle ownership in Asian countries has also increased dramatically, imposing strong pressure on traffic-related issues. As shown in Figure 4.4 and Table 4.1, except for the developed country of Japan, sales of motor vehicles (passenger cars and commercial vehicles) have increased continuously, especially in China, where the sales of motor vehicles increased almost fivefold between 2005 and 2016. Moreover, in 2016, China’s motor vehicle sales were almost double those of the remaining 25 countries. By comparing 2005 with 2016 (Table 4.1), we can see that the sales of motor vehicles decreased in only four countries/regions (Japan, Taiwan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan) and the remaining 22 countries/regions experienced a strong increase. The rapid growth of vehicle sales obviously leads to increased road traffic, imposing severe pressure on road network development: the higher the road traffic, the greater the driving risks. 65

1.9%

21.2%

2.1%

15.8%

2.5%

23.8%

2.3%

25.1%

2.0%

27.2%

2.0%

29.9%

2.0%

32.4%

Asia's Share of World Population %

Urban Population %

Yearly Population Change %

1.7%

34.9%

1.3%

37.5%

1.2%

41.1%

1.1%

44.7%

1.1%

1.0%

1.0%

49.3% 48.1% 48.7%

59.7% 59.6%

0.9%

51.1%

62.6%

0.8%

53.6%

61.5%

57.1%

0.6%

0.5%

0.4%

0.3%

0.2%

55.9% 57.9% 59.6% 61.3% 62.9%

60.5%

55.7% 58.2% 57.0%

Asia population history (1955–2017) and forecast (2020–2050)

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

1.9%

19.3%

62.1%

Population (million)

60.7% 61.2%

66.0% 65.4% 64.8% 64.4% 64.0% 64.7% 65.3% 63.8% 64.6% 63.4%

Source: Worldometers (www.Worldometers.info) www.worldometers.info/world-population/asia-population/.

Figure 4.2

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Millions

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

7.0% East Asia Growth rate per capita GDP/ year (%)

South Asia 6.0%

5.0% Developing Asia 4.0% Southeast Asia

3.0%

2.0% Central Asia 1.0%

0.0% 2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Forecast 2017

Forecast 2018

Growth rates of GDP per capita in Asian countries

Figure 4.3

Motor vehicle sales in selected Asian countries/regions

Source: Asian Development Outlook 2017: Growth Outlook.

30,000,000 China 25,000,000

20,000,000

15,000,000

10,000,000

Japan

5,000,000

India South Korea

0 2005 Bangladesh Japan Nepal Taiwan

Figure 4.4

2006 Brunei Kazakhstan Pakistan Thailand

2007

2008

2009

Cambodia Kirghizstan Philippines Turkmenistan

2010 China Laos Singapore Uzbekistan

2011

2012

2013

Hong Kong, SAR Malaysia South Korea Vietnam

2014

2015

India Mongolia Sri Lanka

Sales of motor vehicles in selected Asian countries/regions (2005–2016)

Source: OICA, www.oica.net/category/sales-statistics/.

2016 Indonesia Myanmar Tajikistan

Jiang and Zhang Table 4.1 Sales of motor vehicles in selected Asian countries/regions in 2005 and 2016 Countries/ Regions

Sales in 2005

Sales in 2016

Ratio Countries/ 2005/2016 Regions

Laos 1,100 10,900 9.91 Sri Lanka 4,000 34,900 8.73 Vietnam 35,264 271,833 7.71 Nepal 1,400 9,300 6.64 China 5,758,189 28,028,175 4.87 Cambodia 1,700 6,300 3.71 Philippines 97,063 359,572 3.70 Bangladesh 15,000 44,400 2.96 India 1,440,455 3,669,277 2.55 Mongolia 800 1,700 2.13 Indonesia 533,917 1,048,134 1.96 Uzbekistan 35,200 56,300 1.60 South Korea 1,145,230 1,823,041 1.59

Sales in 2005

Sales in 2016

Ratio 2005/2016

Hong Kong 35,863 46,200 1.29 Pakistan 167,007 211,295 1.27 Turkmenistan 4,000 5,000 1.25 Myanmar 2,000 2,300 1.15 Thailand 692,506 768,788 1.11 Kazakhstan 42,372 46,712 1.10 Malaysia 551,042 580,124 1.05 Brunei 16,000 16,200 1.01 Singapore 125,018 108,061 0.86 Japan 5,852,034 4,970,260 0.85 Taiwan 446,477 262,346 0.59 Tajikistan 5,440 2,300 0.42 Kirghizstan 5,800 2,000 0.34

Source: OICA, www.oica.net/category/sales-statistics/.

Therefore, efforts to mitigate driving risks become important. From the perspective of human error, according to WHO (2015), the key factors that cause dangerous driving are speeding, drink-driving, distracted driving, and the lack of safety equipment usage (e.g., wearing of helmets and seat belts, and use of child car seats). From the environmental perspective, greater pressure in the future may come from global climate change. Especially in climate-vulnerable Southeast Asian countries (e.g., Bangladesh and Indonesia), floods, tropical cyclones, storm surges, and droughts are occurring frequently, resulting in huge damage to many roads. According to Lu et al. (2017), 61% and 63% of roads along the coastal area in Bangladesh are predicted to be affected by rising sea levels in 2050 and 2080, respectively. Even though no study has been done with respect to the direct impacts of climate change on traffic accidents, there are some studies on the impacts of weather on traffic accidents. Early studies showed that crash rates were elevated during precipitation and accident characteristics varied by weather (Andrey et al., 2003; Golob and Recker, 2003). In contrast, recent studies (e.g., Andrey, 2010) reported a downward trend in relative crash risks during rainfall weather from 1984 to 2002, and snowfall weather imposed no significant change over time, based on data from ten Canadian cities. Because of limited studies, even for the impacts of weather, more research should be promoted.

4.5 States: traffic accidents in Asia 4.5.1 General trends The characteristics of road traffic accidents in the world are comprehensively summarized by WHO (2015).  

68

The total number of road traffic deaths in the world (180 countries) has reached 1.25 million per year, i.e., more than 3,400 people die on the roads every day. Among people aged 15–29 years, road traffic injuries are the top cause of death, followed by suicide, HIV/AIDS, homicide, and maternal conditions.

Road traffic safety

 





Road traffic fatalities per 100,000 population are 26.6 in the African Region, 19.9 in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 17.3 in the Western Pacific Region, 17.0 in the Southeast Asian Region, 15.9 in the Region of the Americas, and 9.3 in the European Region. About half of all deaths on the world’s roads occur among motorized two-/three-wheelers (23%), pedestrians (22%), and cyclists (4%). Regional differences are remarkable: the highest deaths come from motorized two-/three-wheelers in Southeast Asia (34%), pedestrians in Africa (39%), and cars in Europe (51%) and the Americas (35%). The highest road traffic fatality rate is observed in low-income countries at 24.1 fatalities per 100,000 population, while the world average is 17.4, and 9.2 in high-income countries. Low-income countries account for 16% of road traffic deaths; however, registered motorized vehicles in low-income countries are responsible for just 1% of the total vehicles in the world. The road traffic fatality rate in Southeast Asia is 17.0 deaths per 100,000 population, which is similar to the global level of 17.4. In this region, a leveling out in the number of deaths from 315,000 in 2010 to 316,000 in 2013 was achieved. However, the region contributes 25% of the total global road traffic deaths, and this is an increasing trend.

In Asia, the top ten countries in terms of traffic fatalities are shown in Table 4.2. According to estimated road traffic fatalities per 100,000 population, these are Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar, China, Tajikistan, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, and Nepal, in that order. The share of fatalities in each country related to four-wheeled vehicles is highest in Bhutan (94.9%), followed by Tajikistan (62.5%) and Mongolia (47.0%). The share of fatalities related to two-/ three-wheeled vehicles is the highest in Thailand (72.8%), followed by Cambodia (70.4%) and Laos (66.9%). Even though Japan is regarded as a developed country in terms of traffic safety level, the shares of fatalities of cyclists (13.7%) and pedestrians (36.2%) are ranked first and second (the Republic of Korea is ranked first for pedestrians). Table 4.2 Top ten countries(1) in Asia in terms of traffic fatalities(2)

Reported road traffic fatalities

Estimated road traffic fatalities (A)(3)

Fatalities by type of road user (%) Estimated road traffic 4-wheeled Motorized fatalities (B)(3) vehicles 2/3-wheelers Cyclists

IND 137,572 CHN 261,367 THA CHN 62,945 IND 207,551 VNM IDN 26,416 IDN 38,279 MYS THA 13,650 PAK 25,781 MNG PAK 9,917 THA 24,237 MMR VNM 9,845 VNM 22,419 CHN MYS 6,915 BGD 21,316 TJK JPN 5,679 MMR 10,809 LKA KOR 5,092 PHL 10,379 KHM MMR 3,612 MYS 7,129 NPL

36.2 24.5 24.0 21.0 20.3 18.8 18.8 17.4 17.4 17.0

BTN TJK MNG BGD KOR JPN MMR PHL MYS CHN

94.9 62.5 47.0 41.5 33.2 32.4 26.0 25.3 23.7 19.2

THA KHM LAO MYS PHL SGP LKA IDN IND CHN

72.8 70.4 66.9 62.1 52.5 45.6 40.8 36.0 33.9 26.8

Pedestrians

JPN 13.7 KOR LKA 11.0 JPN SGP 9.4 TJK MMR 9.0 BGD CHN 8.1 MNG KOR 5.5 LKA TJK 4.2 SGP IND 3.5 CHN LAO 2.7 MMR THA 2.3 IDN

38.9 36.2 33.3 32.2 30.6 29.8 26.9 26.1 26.0 21.0

Notes: (1) Bangladesh: BGD; Bhutan: BTN; Cambodia: KHM; China: CHN; India: IND; Indonesia: IDN; Japan: JPN; Lao PDR: LAO; Malaysia: MYS; Mongolia: MNG; Myanmar: MMR; Nepal: NPL; Pakistan: PAK; Philippines: PHL; Republic of Korea: KOR; Singapore: SGP; Sri Lanka: LKA; Tajikistan: TJK; Thailand: THA; Vietnam: VNM. (2) Data source (mainly in the year 2013): www.who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2015/GSRRS2015_ data/en/. (3) A: total number; B: number per 100,000 population.

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4.5.2 Asia: special features With a focus on the historical trend of road accident fatalities in developing Asian countries, in recent decades, large fluctuations in fatalities have been significantly influenced by national and regional economies, such as the decline in the 1990s due to the Asian financial crisis and the subsequent rebound in fatalities during the period of economic recovery (Esmael, Sasaki and Nishii, 2013). Importantly, Esmael, Sasaki and Nishii (2013) highlighted that Asian developing countries had much higher per capita fatality rates than those of Japan and the USA during the period when their levels of economic activity were similar to the selected Asian developing countries discussed here. Among the factors causing traffic accidents, it has been reported that excessive speeding is prominent in Asia, especially in young drivers (e.g., Gupta and Tiwari, 2013; Ketphat, Kanitpong and Jiwattanakulpaisarn, 2013). For example, overspeeding was reported to be involved in up to 80% of all traffic accidents on national highways in Thailand between 2001 and 2010 (Ketphat, Kanitpong and Jiwattanakulpaisarn, 2013). Traffic accidents in Asia are characterized by the high proportion of motorcycles. Figure 4.5 shows that deaths involving motorized two-/three-wheelers accounted for more than one-third of all traffic fatalities in Southeast Asia, and the situation is particularly serious in Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia (WHO, 2015). The use of motorcycles differs between developed and developing countries. People in developed countries (especially in Western countries) may use motorcycles only at weekends for recreational travel, while people in countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines mainly use motorcycles for their regular work trips (Baral and Kanitpong, 2015). In Cambodia, where motorcycle fatalities account for 71% of road traffic fatalities, Sarm and Kanitpong (2016) noted that the high levels of motorcycle accidents in Phnom Penh are characterized by crashes with heavy trucks, accidents alone, head-on collisions, and speeding by male drivers aged 25–29 years at nighttime, during peak hours, and at weekends. In Thailand, it was reported that time-related factors (late at night and late morning, at the weekends and holidays), accident types (collisions with trucks, crashes at curves, motorcycle/vehicle collisions, especially head-on), attributes of persons (drivers aged 40 years or older, pillion passengers), and road attributes (asphalt pavement) were significantly associated with severe motorcycle accidents and casualties (Baral and Kanitpong, 2015). In Singapore, the personality traits of motorcyclists

Cyclists

3%

Pedestrians Car occupants

16%

Motorized 2-3 wheelers

34%

Other/unspecified

34%

Figure 4.5

Deaths by road user type in South-East Asian region

Source: Global Status Report on Road Safety, 2015.

70

13%

Road traffic safety

were seen as the dominant factors leading to a high risk of accidents (Haque, Chin and Lim, 2010). Drink-driving in Asian developing countries is not abnormal. Trinh and Vo (2015) noted that even though drink-driving by motorcyclists has not been recorded as a main cause of traffic accidents in Vietnam, where alcohol consumption is very high, traffic accidents involving drinkdriving were increasing rapidly. Trinh and Vo (2015) found that affective attitude (e.g., wanting to have fun) was the most important factor behind drink-driving behavior and perceived severity was ranked second as a factor predicting drink-driving behavior.

4.5.3 Traffic accidents in Japan: the first developed country in Asia

18,000

1,400,000

14,000 1,000,000

12,000

800,000

10,000

600,000

8,000 6,000

400,000

4,000 200,000 0

2,000

No. of accidents

Figure 4.6

Number of fatalities

16,000

1,200,000

1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Number of accidents and injuries

Japan’s experiences of combating traffic accidents should have a number of values of reference for other Asian countries. Figure 4.6 shows that Japan recorded the highest number of traffic fatalities (16,765) in 1970. After enormous efforts over a long-term period, the number of fatalities decreased to 4,117 in 2015, that is, just 25% of the 1970 figure. This level is almost equal to that in 1950 (4,202), which means that the increase from roughly 4,000 fatalities in 1950 to the peak of over 16,000 in 1970 took about 20 years. However, the decrease from the peak back down to roughly 4,000 fatalities took more than 45 years. This dramatically illustrates the difficulties in reducing traffic accidents. An overview of the evolving process of accidents and injuries in Japan highlights two significant reductions that were achieved in the history of traffic safety measures in Japan. The first remarkable improvement occurred in the period 1970–1977 through substantial construction of safety infrastructure. The second significant decline in traffic fatalities has been seen, especially since the late 1990s, with the active development of various ITS technologies and their deployment together with the enforcement of traffic safety laws and rules. Looking at changing trends of traffic fatalities in relation to specific age groups (Figure 4.7), two groups should be mentioned: young people (aged 16–24 years) and the elderly ($65 years). For young people, a noticeable downward trend of fatality numbers since 1991 can be identified. In contrast, over the

No. of injuries

0

No. of fatalities

Traffic accidents in Japan (1966–2015)

Source: National Police Agency, Japan.

71

1984

1983

1981

1982

1980

1979

Source: National Police Agency, Japan.

1995

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1986

1987

1985

50–59 years old

1997

16–24 years old

1996

40–49 years old

1998

15 years and under

1994

Trends in the number of traffic fatalities by age group

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Figure 4.7

Fatality (person)

3,500

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

60–64 years old

25–29 years old

2012 2011

2010

2009

30–39 years old

2013

65 years or older

2017

2016

2015

2014

2008 2006

2007

2000

1999

Road traffic safety

past 25 years (1992–2017), the number of fatalities is most prominent (over 49% of total fatalities) in the elderly group in Japan. Similarly, these two age groups dominate fatalities in Korea (Park et al., 2013). Because the potential changing trend of traffic accident fatalities indicates the need for further efforts with respect to countermeasures, traffic safety should therefore focus specific attention on these two age groups. Concerning changing trends in vehicle ownership in Japan, Figure 4.8 shows that over the past 50 years, even though the numbers of licensed drivers and vehicle ownership have grown exponentially, the number of traffic accidents, fatalities, and injuries could be effectively controlled and mitigated. Effective countermeasures employed for improvements in safety have played a predominant role in mitigating the pressure from increased traffic volume, reflected by the increasing trend of vehicle ownership and licensed drivers, as well as by vehicle mileage traveled.

4.6 Impacts The impacts of road accidents are diverse, and include macro-level economic losses and microlevel decline in personal quality of life. At the national level, Mohan (2014) estimated that in Asia, road traffic accidents cause an annual GDP loss and environmental degradation of 2–4%, which supports the evaluation of the Global Road Safety Partnership of the World Bank that the figure of 1% calculated in most countries is an underestimate (Jacobs, Aeron-Thomas and Astrop, 2000). In a recent study of the status of road safety in Asia by Wismans et al. (2016), the economic losses in 24 Asian countries were estimated at around US$ 800 billion or 3.6% of GDP. In Nepal, Joshi and Shrestha (2009) calculated that 42.5% of injuries occurred on roads, and that a single injury cost US$ 126.2 due to the inability to work. In Thailand, Thongchim et al. (2007) calculated economic losses from traffic accidents in five representative provinces based on the so-called human capital method. They grouped the total costs into three categories: the human category (loss of productivity, medical treatment, long-term care, quality of life, and emergency services), the property category (vehicle and nonvehicle damage), and others (insurance, police administration, legal services, emergency rescue services, and travel delays). The estimated total cost of traffic accidents in Thailand for 2004 was approximately US$ 3.5 million. For Japan in 2004, Oguchi (2016) showed that total annual social costs (monetary and nonmonetary losses) of traffic accidents reached around 8.4 trillion yen (US$ 82 billion). Although these losses were much larger in Japan, it should be noted that nonmonetary losses were not included in the Thailand calculation. In addition to these huge economic losses, there are also serious impacts to personal health from traffic accidents. The consequences of traffic accidents on human life are multifarious. People involved in traffic accidents are more likely to suffer from health consequences (physical or mental problems at a certain level). In the case of an accident causing physical injuries, a series of resulting social consequences may occur, and negative influences may be imposed on not only the accident victims themselves, but also on people within the victims’ social networks (e.g., family, relatives, and colleagues). A decline in the quality of life due to job losses and the resulting financial hardships may bring further negative impacts for the whole society. The Global Status Report on Road Safety (WHO, 2015) noted that global road traffic accidents are a leading cause of death among young people aged 15–29 years. This imposes a heavy burden on households as well as on national economic development in low- to middle-income developing countries, because of the negative impact on the labor force in this age group (Department of Transport, 2015; Wismans et al., 2016). 73

Fatalities and injuries (person) Vehicle km traveled (100 million km)

No. of accidents (10,000)

No. of licensed drivers (10,000 persons)

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Vehicle ownership (10,000 vehicles)

1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: National Police Agency, Japan.

Trends in traffic accidents, fatality and injuries, licensed drivers, vehicle ownership, vehicle kilometers traveled (1966–2014) in Japan

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Figure 4.8

No. of accidents, fatalities and injuries

1,400,000 Vehicle ownership (10,000 vehicles), No. of licensed drivers (10,000), Vehicle km traveled (100 million km)

Lao PDR Malaysia Maldives Mongolia

India Indonesia Japan

Brunei (WHO 2013) Cambodia China

Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan

50% (2011–2020)