Global Health Security: Recognizing Vulnerabilities, Creating Opportunities [1st ed. 2020] 978-3-030-23490-4, 978-3-030-23491-1

Table of contents :
Front Matter ....Pages i-viii
Front Matter ....Pages 1-1
Plagues, Epidemics and Pandemics (Ricardo Izurieta)....Pages 3-11
Agricultural Emergencies: Factors and Impacts in the Spread of Transboundary Diseases in, and Adjacent to, Agriculture (Ashley Hydrick)....Pages 13-31
The Threat Within: Mitigating the Risk of Medical Error (Simon Bennett)....Pages 33-57
Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events and Global Health Security a Lens into Vulnerabilities (Carson Bell, Anthony J. Masys)....Pages 59-78
Global Health Biosecurity in a Vulnerable World – An Evaluation of Emerging Threats and Current Disaster Preparedness Strategies for the Future (Kristi Miley)....Pages 79-102
The Emerging Threat of Ebola (Michelle LaBrunda, Naushad Amin)....Pages 103-139
Front Matter ....Pages 141-141
Natural and Manmade Disasters: Vulnerable Populations (Jennifer Marshall, Jacqueline Wiltshire, Jennifer Delva, Temitope Bello, Anthony J. Masys)....Pages 143-161
Global Sexual Violence (Sara Spowart)....Pages 163-186
Global Health Security and Weapons of Mass Destruction Chapter (Chris Reynolds)....Pages 187-207
Antimicrobial Resistance in One Health (Marie-jo Medina, Helena Legido-Quigley, Li Yang Hsu)....Pages 209-229
Food Security: Microbiological and Chemical Risks (Joergen Schlundt, Moon Y. F. Tay, Hu Chengcheng, Chen Liwei)....Pages 231-274
Front Matter ....Pages 275-275
Gaussianization of Variational Bayesian Approximations with Correlated Non-nested Non-negligible Posterior Mean Random Effects Employing Non-negativity Constraint Analogs and Analytical Depossinization for Iteratively Fitting Capture Point, Aedes aegypti Habitat Non-zero Autocorrelated Prognosticators: A Case Study in Evidential Probabilities for Non-frequentistic Forecast Epi-entomological Time Series Modeling of Arboviral Infections (Angelica Huertas, Nathanael Stanley, Samuel Alao, Toni Panaou, Benjamin G. Jacob, Thomas Unnasch)....Pages 277-305
Simulation and Modeling Applications in Global Health Security (Arthur J. French)....Pages 307-340
The Growing Role of Social Media in International Health Security: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly (Stanislaw P. Stawicki, Michael S. Firstenberg, Thomas J. Papadimos)....Pages 341-357
Front Matter ....Pages 359-359
Effecting Collective Impact Through Collective Leadership on a Foundation of Generative Relationships (Marissa J. Levine)....Pages 361-386
Global Health Security Innovation (James Stikeleather, Anthony J. Masys)....Pages 387-425
Back Matter ....Pages 427-430

Citation preview

Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications

Anthony J. Masys Ricardo Izurieta Miguel Reina Ortiz Editors

Global Health Security

Recognizing Vulnerabilities, Creating Opportunities

Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications Series Editor Anthony J. Masys, Associate Professor, Director of Global Disaster Management, Humanitarian Assistance and Homeland Security, University of South Florida, Tampa, USA Advisory Editors Gisela Bichler, California State University, San Bernardino, CA, USA Thirimachos Bourlai, West Virginia University, Statler College of Engineering and Mineral Resources, Morgantown, WV, USA Chris Johnson, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK Panagiotis Karampelas, Hellenic Air Force Academy, Attica, Greece Christian Leuprecht, Royal Military College of Canada, Kingston, ON, Canada Edward C. Morse, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA David Skillicorn, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, Canada Yoshiki Yamagata, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

The series Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications comprises interdisciplinary research covering the theory, foundations and domain-specific topics pertaining to security. Publications within the series are peer-reviewed monographs and edited works in the areas of: – biological and chemical threat recognition and detection (e.g., biosensors, aerosols, forensics) – crisis and disaster management – terrorism – cyber security and secure information systems (e.g., encryption, optical and photonic systems) – traditional and non-traditional security – energy, food and resource security – economic security and securitization (including associated infrastructures) – transnational crime – human security and health security – social, political and psychological aspects of security – recognition and identification (e.g., optical imaging, biometrics, authentication and verification) – smart surveillance systems – applications of theoretical frameworks and methodologies (e.g., grounded theory, complexity, network sciences, modelling and simulation) Together, the high-quality contributions to this series provide a cross-disciplinary overview of forefront research endeavours aiming to make the world a safer place. The editors encourage prospective authors to correspond with them in advance of submitting a manuscript. Submission of manuscripts should be made to the Editorin-Chief or one of the Editors.

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/5540

Anthony J. Masys • Ricardo Izurieta Miguel Reina Ortiz Editors

Global Health Security Recognizing Vulnerabilities, Creating Opportunities

Editors Anthony J. Masys College of Public Health University of South Florida Tampa, FL, USA

Ricardo Izurieta College of Public Health University of South Florida Tampa, FL, USA

Miguel Reina Ortiz College of Public Health University of South Florida Tampa, FL, USA

ISSN 1613-5113 ISSN 2363-9466 (electronic) Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications ISBN 978-3-030-23490-4 ISBN 978-3-030-23491-1 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-23491-1 © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG. The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

Foreword

Our small planet is effectively growing smaller every day. In the nineteenth century, it was possible to believe that geographic distances could protect a country from disruptions, natural disasters, and plagues raging far away on the other side of the world. But this is no longer the case. Thanks to our international air travel network, it is now possible to get from any city on the planet to any other city on the planet in less than one day. And the number of people traveling internationally by air has grown by over 5% a year for the past 10 years. Paralleling this growth in air travel is a growth in shipping. Few of the goods we now consume are produced locally. Most come from across the world. The increase in the movement of both people and goods means that we are no longer sheltered from events that happen on the other side of the world. The world has turned into a village. And we are seeing more disasters and threats to the security in our planetary village. Political instability and environmental changes caused by global warming are displacing more and more people. In 2017, it was estimated that over 65 million people were refugees. Displaced people often are forced to live in crowded, less than ideal conditions which can breed disease, food insufficiency, and radicalism. Environmental degradation and the incursion of people into previously wild habitats spurs the development of zoonoses which can become devastating epidemics and pandemics. Climate change can result in slow moving (e.g., the inundation of the Pacific atoll island nations) and rapid (e.g., hurricanes) weather-related disasters that leave people homeless and traumatized. Any many of these factors can often afflict a population at the same time, leading to complex humanitarian disasters that are very difficult to address. A good example of this is the Ebola epidemic in North Kivu Province of the Democratic Republic of the Congo in 2018. Despite deploying an effective vaccine, the international community has struggled to contain this epidemic, as a result of political unrest, population movement, and distrust of outsiders by the local population. The authors of this volume highlight many of the challenges that confront our global security environment today. These range from politically induced disasters to food insecurity, to zoonoses, and to terrorism. More optimistically, the authors also v

vi

Foreword

present some advances in technology that can help us combat these threats. Understanding the challenges that confront us and the tools we have to overcome them will allow us to face our future with confidence. Professor, Global and Planetary Health, College of Public Health, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA

Thomas Unnasch

Contents

Part I

Emerging Threats

Plagues, Epidemics and Pandemics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ricardo Izurieta Agricultural Emergencies: Factors and Impacts in the Spread of Transboundary Diseases in, and Adjacent to, Agriculture . . . . . . . . . Ashley Hydrick The Threat Within: Mitigating the Risk of Medical Error . . . . . . . . . . . Simon Bennett Climate Change, Extreme Weather Events and Global Health Security a Lens into Vulnerabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Carson Bell and Anthony J. Masys Global Health Biosecurity in a Vulnerable World – An Evaluation of Emerging Threats and Current Disaster Preparedness Strategies for the Future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Kristi Miley

3

13 33

59

79

The Emerging Threat of Ebola . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 Michelle LaBrunda and Naushad Amin Part II

Mitigation, Preparedness and Response and Recovery

Natural and Manmade Disasters: Vulnerable Populations . . . . . . . . . . . 143 Jennifer Marshall, Jacqueline Wiltshire, Jennifer Delva, Temitope Bello, and Anthony J. Masys Global Sexual Violence . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 Sara Spowart

vii

viii

Contents

Global Health Security and Weapons of Mass Destruction Chapter . . . . 187 Chris Reynolds Antimicrobial Resistance in One Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 209 Marie-jo Medina, Helena Legido-Quigley, and Li Yang Hsu Food Security: Microbiological and Chemical Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 231 Joergen Schlundt, Moon Y. F. Tay, Hu Chengcheng, and Chen Liwei Part III

Exploring the Technology Landscape for Solutions

Gaussianization of Variational Bayesian Approximations with Correlated Non-nested Non-negligible Posterior Mean Random Effects Employing Non-negativity Constraint Analogs and Analytical Depossinization for Iteratively Fitting Capture Point, Aedes aegypti Habitat Non-zero Autocorrelated Prognosticators: A Case Study in Evidential Probabilities for Non-frequentistic Forecast Epi-entomological Time Series Modeling of Arboviral Infections . . . . . . 277 Angelica Huertas, Nathanael Stanley, Samuel Alao, Toni Panaou, Benjamin G. Jacob, and Thomas Unnasch Simulation and Modeling Applications in Global Health Security . . . . . . 307 Arthur J. French The Growing Role of Social Media in International Health Security: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341 Stanislaw P. Stawicki, Michael S. Firstenberg, and Thomas J. Papadimos Part IV

Leadership and Partnerships

Effecting Collective Impact Through Collective Leadership on a Foundation of Generative Relationships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361 Marissa J. Levine Global Health Security Innovation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 387 James Stikeleather and Anthony J. Masys Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 427

Part I

Emerging Threats

Plagues, Epidemics and Pandemics Ricardo Izurieta

1 Introduction Plagues have been on earth before mankind and in fact they emerge along with life on earth and they have experience three and a half billions of years of evolution and adaptation. The encounter of civilizations has facilitated the exchange of microorganisms determining the emergence of plagues and pandemics that have decimated populations. The presence of the Spaniards in the Americas during the end of the fifteenth and beginning of the sixteenth centuries resulted in the global expansions of plagues like yellow fever, variola, measles, rubella, syphilis, tuberculosis among others. Also, a few centuries before, the thirteenth century expansion of the Mongol empire facilitated the dissemination of the black plague. Plagues should not only be analyzed from its biological determination but also from its social, economic, cultural and even moral determinants. The plague of the ends of century twentieth -Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS)- cannot be seen as a mere genetic evolution and adaptation of the Simian Immunodeficiency Virus (SIV) but also as a social construction in which elements like access to health care services and therapeutics, knowledge about the disease and even cultural and moral elements should be incorporated into the analysis.

R. Izurieta (*) College of Public Health, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA e-mail: [email protected] © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 A. J. Masys et al. (eds.), Global Health Security, Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-23491-1_1

3

4

R. Izurieta

2 Discussion As described in historical chronologies of the times of the Plague (years 1347–1350), people reacted to the pandemic with penitence acts to assuage God’s anger. One of the most striking demonstrations of auto-infliction of pain and suffering were the Processions of the Flagellants that took place in the Netherlands and Germany [1]. Similar reactions were seen in the times of cholera -1991 Cholera pandemic of the Americas- when the parishioners of the port of Guayaquil, Ecuador decided to participate in the Eastern Christ of Consolation Procession. Actually, these religious ceremonies became the epicenters of the transmission of the pathogens instead of ameliorating the epidemics and pandemics. A synergy of socioeconomic, cultural, ecological and biological were observed during the Eastern Christ of Consolation Procession, where parishioners of all catholic churches of the main port of Guayaquil, Ecuador and its surroundings participated in the procession to ask for God’s mercy since the cholera epidemic had already taken thousands of lives in the country. During the times of cholera in the Americas, a rampant expansion of the seventh cholera pandemic originated in the Celebs Islands, Indonesia arrived into Peru in December 1990 to later be expanded to Ecuadorian territories. Just a few weeks after Peru had declared a cholera epidemic, the first case of the disease was reported in Ecuador on February 28, 1991. A fisherman who had traveled by a small vessel to Peru contracted cholera and initially infected the town of Bajoalto in El Oro province. The epidemic spread rapidly. During the first epidemiological week, cases were reported in widespread regions of the country such as Esmeraldas in the north, Guayas in the center of the coastal zone, and throughout parts of the Andean highlands. In a matter of months, the epidemic had reached beyond the Andean mountains to the waters of the Amazon River spreading throughout the rainforest. At the peak of the epidemic—the 17th epidemiological week (April 27May 4, 1991)—more than 3000 new cases were reported in the country [2]. The causative agent was found to be Vibrio cholera O1 of biotype El Tor serotype Inaba [3] (Fig. 1). Since John Snow’s classic work in 1885 on cholera in London, water is known to be one of the most important vehicles of transmission for cholera [4]. As in the case of Snow’s work, our findings on the positive relationship between potable water supply and increased cholera attack rates suggested the contamination of municipal water supplies. Prior to the 1991 cholera epidemic in Ecuador, Guayaquil’s municipal water system had already reported low water pressure and other deficiencies in their system. Although the central tap water reservoir in the city had 0.1 p.p.m. of free chlorine, no chlorine was detected from jury-rigged connections at the periphery of the water system [5]. In short, deficiencies of the municipal water system within the country were the explanation for the correlations found between high potable water coverage and increased cholera attack rates. These inadequacies may have caused massive widespread contamination with hundreds of patients overcrowding emergency health care services.

Plagues, Epidemics and Pandemics

5

Fig. 1 Cholera patient with severe dehydration (sunken eyes) under rapid intravenous water and electrolytes infusion

Similar occurrences were described in Rioacha of Colombia and Trujillo and Piura of Peru [6, 7]. In the Piura study, researchers concluded that “Piura’s water system [had] distributed the infection throughout the city” thereby demonstrating as Snow and others did in the mid-1900s, that untreated water in centralized distribution systems still pose as hazards to public health [6]. Such common sources of contamination were associated with one or more of the following deficiencies: insufficiently maintained pipes, low or intermittent water pressure, illegal (unmetered) water connections, water taps located below ground level, and substandard levels of chlorine in the system. In the Rioacha case study, epidemiological research linked the municipal drinking water supply as a risk factor for both acute diarrheal diseases and cholera. Their findings showed that the municipal water system was contaminated and was thus serving as a key vehicle for cholera transmission [8]. But water was not the only vehicle of transmission of V. cholerae, as demonstrated years later by Rita Colwell. V. cholerae actual reservoir is in the brackish waters of the estuaries all around the world. V. cholerae The Tor has been isolated from aquatic estuaries where the temperature is higher than 10  C and the salinity is between 2‰ and 2.5‰, these are optimal conditions for vibrio growth [9]. This correlation between cholera O1, temperature and salinity, was described by Hood et al. in two studies conducted in Florida [6]. Miller et al. found that the optimum concentration of salt for the survival of cholera was 2.0‰, the salt concentration of the rivers of Ecuador and the water of the Pacific Ocean were optimal for the development of the bacteria, phenomenon attributed to the increase of rain water during the rainy season of March-May 1991 in Ecuador.

6

R. Izurieta

The correlation between high rainfall during the rainy season and the epidemic peaks of. V. cholerae actually was later demonstrated in Ecuador [6, 8]. In addition, zooplankton plays an important role in the survival of cholera and the association with copepods is a characteristic of V. cholerae as other vibrios like Vibrio parahaemoliticus. Hug et al. have stated that salinity and the presence of zooplankton are the main factors that determine the growth of vibrios, in this environment V. cholerae is apt to contaminate organisms developed by their ability to adhere to surfaces [6]. Consequently, seafood became the second most common vehicle of transmission of V. cholerae. The historical and ancient practice of eating raw seafood or dry fish among the Ecuadorian and Peruvian population factored into the V. cholera transmission in the coastal regions. Substantial evidence points to the consumption of raw fishery products as one of the greatest risks [10–13]. We found that the popular national dish “ceviche,” (containing marinated seafood) was a vehicle of V. cholera transmission [14]. The presence of V. cholera in “conchas” (or shellfish) in Ecuador were described in the studies of Weber et al. [5]. Thus, it was concluded that contaminated seafood, handling and preparation, including the time the seafood is exposed to citric acid in the lemon juice marinade, affect the outcome of cholera cases. People consuming raw or dry seafood unleashed a cholera epidemic that took thousands of lives. On the Good Friday of March 29, 1991, hundreds of thousands of parishioners from of catholic churches of Guayaquil and its satellite cities and counties congregated in the streets to participate in the Eastern Christ of Consolation Procession. As usual, that day the route of procession began early in the morning in the church of Cristo del Consuelo located at the intersection of Lizardo García and A streets, southwest of Guayaquil. People were agglomerated on the streets while the residents of houses and buildings located on the sides of the route were throwing water to ameliorate the heat people were experiencing during those high temperature days which are typical of the rainy season. Early in the afternoon, the National Epidemiological Surveillance System mounted by the Ministry of Public Health got an emergency call indicating the presence of dozens of cholera cases in an apartment located in one of the poor neighborhoods of the Febres Cordero parish, close to the El Salado estuary. When the epidemiology brigade arrived, about a dozen men and women were sitting or in bed with the classical profuse watery diarrhea proper of cholera. Immediately, oral rehydration with Oral Rehydration Salts (ORS) or intravenous rehydration with Ringer’s Lactate was stablished. While being rehydrated, a case control study interview was administered in order to identify the foods consumed in the last 3 days by the patients and their family controls. The Odds Ratios clearly pointed at the consume of dry shrimp 2 days ago as the main factor associated with the profuse diarrhea. In a qualitative interview, the patients, all of them members of an extended family, mentioned that relatives from the Puna island have brought dry shrimp to consume during the Eastern week in Guayaquil and to participate in the Christ of Consolation Procession. Paradoxically, they have arrived to ask God to protect Guayaquil and its surroundings from the cholera epidemic that was being extended like fire since its beginning 4 weeks ago in the Ecuadorian territory. During

Plagues, Epidemics and Pandemics

7

Fig. 2 Hundreds of thousands of parishioners of the port of Guayaquil, Ecuador participating in the Eastern Christ of Consolation Procession

the dinner of Good Wednesday they consumed fish and seafood and no meat at all as it is banned by the Catholic church. That weekend we went to visit Puna island to see if there were more patients who needed immediate rehydration in a low population zone where there is no health care services. Few more cholera cases where found also associated with the consumption of dry shrimp. During the inspection of the water and sanitation systems, it was found that the water was obtained from wells [15] and that the sanitation system was composed of pit latrines. Consequently, contamination of the sea by sewage discharges was not possible and the contamination of shrimp and fish in their natural environment was plausible. The results of the case-control study were immediately faxed to the Minister of Public Health who forwarded the fax to the Ministry of Fishery. The order of the Ministry of Fishery was to declare the document as classified due to the possible impacts on shrimp exportations. This was the first epidemiological evidence of the contamination of fish and seafood in their natural marine environment. But also, it brings to discussion the following questions: Since in the London of century twenty-first there were not refrigerators, did London used to consume dry fish which could have been contaminated? Besides the transmission by water was there a transmission through seafood during the 1854 London epidemic? Was the cholera epidemic controlled not only by John Snow’s clever interventions but also because of the development of protective natural immunity in the population? (Fig. 2) Although the highest morbidity rates of cholera were observed in the coastal provinces, the highest Case Fatality rates (CFR) were reported in the Andean provinces where there is a predominance of indigenous Kichwa population, descendants of the Incas. The presence of the cholera pandemic in Ecuador and the Andean region showed us that after 500 years of the conquest of the Inca Empire by the Spaniards, our indigenous populations were still ignored by the government health system. The Kichwa and other indigenous ethnic groups were mistreated and marginalized in health services managed by the “mestizos”. Emergencies were not

8

R. Izurieta

Fig. 3 During burial ceremonies and celebration of the Day of the Death countless cholera outbreaks were reported among indigenous Kichwa communities. In these celebrations relatives of the deceased used to share food and drinks spreading the disease among the invitees

managed based on the severity of the case but on the racial background of the patient. Many Kichwas preferred to die at home with their relatives instead of dying in a hospital alone and mistreated by strangers that talked to them in another language [16]. For the Kichwa population, diseases are classified as environmental and proper of the community and those diseases of outside or God are those caused by the presence or contact with whites and mestizos on indigenous lands. These diseases can also be brought by the Indians who go to work in the cities of whites and mestizos, on the coast, or in another place different from that of the community. Outside the communities, in the cities, kichwas can be contaminated by their uncontrolled life, by the excess of work, but mainly by the continuous contact with white-mestizo carriers of these diseases. Therefore, there is no cure within the community and these diseases must be treated in white-mestizo hospitals. These diseases are considered as a punishment sent by God and are diagnosed and cured by white doctors in hospitals. The healers and Yachacs (shamans) try not to mediate in this group of diseases. But they are also attributed to a punishment for breaking community values or norms (carelessness, filth, alcoholism) or for the social degradation existing in the communities [17, 18] (Fig. 3). The paradoxical existence -from the merely bio-ecological point of view- of the epidemic in the frosty Andean provinces can lead us to propose a new pattern of alternative transmission. The Andean region, characterized as a zone of cold climate

Plagues, Epidemics and Pandemics

9

Fig. 4 Lake San Pablo which waters were invaded by V. cholera stablishing a new enclave of the plague in the Andean mountains

in which temperatures are almost always below 10  C, theoretically does not constitute an ecological environment conducive to the maintenance of V. cholerae. The fact that Vibrio cholerae can develop with an incredible adaptability even in cold freshwater of the Andes as described in rivers in eastern Australia and saltwater as described in the North American bays in the Gulf of Mexico poses a menace to human populations who do not have natural immunity. In conclusion we could accept the fact that the microorganism was able to invade new ecological niches in the Andean mountains as well as to find an immunological virgin Kichwa population whose socioeconomic status and characteristic culture harbored the conditions for an explosive and lethal epidemic (Fig. 4). In the historical analysis carried out by Glass and Black, cholera disease shows a cyclical behavior. According to these analyzes, epidemic outbreaks should be expected every 5–7 years [4]. The behavior of cholera worldwide seems to be closely related to the climatic changes caused by El Niño current in Latin America and the Monsoons in Southeast Asia. In the same way, the seasonal behavior of cholera has been reported in several investigations [19], for sure the epidemic adopted this seasonal and cyclical behavior Andean zone. Therefore, the statement that cholera is also linked to ecological and cultural conditions has a logical basis. The verification of a seasonal and periodic cholera behavior in the Andean region would be evidence of the connection of outbreaks of the disease with climate changes, which in turn would be related to the cultural practices of the affected populations. The ethnocultural and environmental factors would be

10

R. Izurieta

integrated into socioeconomic determinants and health infrastructure to constitute what would be called a syndemic pattern of transmission of cholera in the Andean zone. As a matter of fact, there are strong epidemiological and biological bases for the construction of this syndemic pattern of Andean transmission integrating the socioeconomic, religious, environmental and ethnocultural factors of the region.

3 Conclusion Although the persistence of cholera in certain provinces is mainly attributed to socioeconomic conditions and the availability of sanitary infrastructure, these factors do not completely explain the behavior of cholera in the Andean zone. Therefore, a reasonable complementary explanation of the epidemic behavior and endemization of cholera is the influence of ecological and cultural factors associated with ancestral practices among the descendants of the pre-Hispanic ethnic groups that inhabit the Andean highlands. After the epidemic of 1991, which attacked an immunologically virgin population, the disease had a tendency to disappear with no evidences of its endemization. In the global context, the recent epidemics have weakened the reputation of international organizations during the Ebola epidemic. Dr. Joanne Liu, Medicins Sans Frontieres (MSF) International President, denounced United Nations has not deployed the minimum necessary resources to tackle the exceptionally large outbreak of Ebola virus. Despite repeated calls by non-government international organizations like MSF for a massive mobilization on the ground, the international response was lethally inadequate [20].

References 1. Hays JN (2009) The burdens of disease: epidemics and human response in western history, 2nd edn. Rutgers University Press, New Brunswick 2. Sempetegui R, Garcia L (1992) Colera. In: Sempertegui R, Naranjo P, Padilla M (eds) Panorama Epidemilogico del Ecuador. Ministry of Public Health of Ecuador, Quito 3. Izurieta RA (2006) Death foretold in the times of cholera. Institute for the Study of Latin America and the Caribbean, University of South Florida 4. Glass RI, Black RE (1992) The epidemiology of cholera. In: Barua D, Greeough W III (eds) Cholera. Plenum Publishing Corporation, New York 5. Weber JT, Mintz ED, Cnizares R, Semiglia A, Gomez I, Sempertegui R, Davila A, Greene KD, Puhr ND, Cameron DN, Tenover FC, Barret TJ, Bean NH, Ivey C, Tauxe RV, Blaske PA (1994) Epidemic cholera in Ecuador: multidrug-resistance and transmission by water and seafood. Epidemiol Infect 112:1–11 6. Ries A, Vugia D, Beingolea L, Palacios AM, Vasquez E, Wells GJ, Swerdlow D, Pollack M, Dean N, Seminario L, Tauxe R (1992) Cholera in Piura: a modern urban epidemic. J Infect Dis 166:1429–1433

Plagues, Epidemics and Pandemics

11

7. Swerdlow D, Mintz E, Roddriguez M, Tejada E, Ocampo C, Espejo L, Greene K, Saldana W, Seminario L, Tauxe R, Wells J, Bean N, Ries A, Pollack M, Vertiz B, Blake P (1992) Waterborne transmission of epidemic cholera in Trujillo, Peru: lessons for a continent at risk. Lancet 340:28–32 8. Cardenas V, Saad C, Varona M, Linero M (1993) Waterborne cholera in Riohacha, Colombia, 1992. Bull PAHO 27(4):313–330 9. Colwell R, Anwarul H (1994) Environmental reservoir of Vibrio cholerae: the causative agent of cholera. Ann N Y Acad Sci 740:44–54 10. Pan American Health Organization (1991) Risk of cholera transmission by foods. Bull PAHO 25(3):274–277 11. McIntyre RC, Tira T, Flood T, Blake P (1979) Modes of transmission of cholera in a newly infected population on a atoll: implications for control measures. Lancet 1:311–314 12. Merson MH, Martin WT, Craig JP (1977) Cholera in Guam. Am J Epidemiol 105:349–361 13. Quick R, Thompson B, Zuniga A, Dominguez G, Brizuela E, Palma O, Almeida S, Valencia A, Ries A, Bean H, Blake P (1995) Epidemic cholera in rural El Salvador: risk factors in a region covered by a cholera prevention campaign. Epidemiol Infect 114:249–255 14. Izurieta R, Ochoa T, Narvaez A, Sempertegui R (1991) Investigacion del Brote de Colera en el Recinto La Maria, Provincia del Oro. Epidemiology Bulletin, Ministry of Public Health of Ecuador, vol 31 15. Cabrera J (2011) Estudio Hidrogeologico de la Isla Puna (Ecuador). Ingenieria de Minas. Escuela Superior Politecnica del Litoral ESPOL 16. Narvaez A, Mathieu C (1992) El colera en las comunidades indigenas de Imbabura. Bol Epidemiol Minist Salud Publica Ecuador 34:2–12 17. Izurieta R, Medina M (1995) Cholera: Report del brote de Salcedo. In: Narvaez A, Valcarcel M, Betancourt Z (eds) Cholera in the Ecuadorian Highlands. Ministry of Public Health of Ecuador and the Pan American Health Organization 18. Narvaez A, Izurieta R, Rodriguez N, Trujillo P, Vava M, Globet V (1998) Practicas preventivas y concepciones sobre nosologia y causalidad del colera en comunidades indigenas de Imbabura -Ecuador 1994–1996. Documento Minsiterio Salud Publica Ecuador 19. Colwell RR (1996) Global climate and infectious disease: the cholera paradigm. Science. l 274:2025–2031 20. Medicins Sans Frontieres (MSF) (2019) The failures of the international outbreak response. https://www.msf.org/ebola-failures-international-outbreak-response

Agricultural Emergencies: Factors and Impacts in the Spread of Transboundary Diseases in, and Adjacent to, Agriculture Ashley Hydrick

1 Introduction: The Importance of Agriculture In 2015, 40 years after the first call to end global hunger, the United Nations (UN) made food security through sustainable agriculture the second Sustainable Development Goal (SDG-2) [1]. In addition to providing for the basic human right of food security, a robust agricultural industry is vitally essential to ensure the social, economic, and political stability of a nation [2–4]. Food security is the state of having access to a sufficient supply of food that is safe, nutritious, and meets a group’s dietary needs and preferences to maintain a healthy lifestyle [5]. The state where these criteria are not met is called food insecurity. Depending on the resource, it is estimated that between 820 million and 940 million people worldwide live in some form of chronic or recurring food insecurity, and about 108 million people live in a state of food emergency [6–8]. The UN describes a two-fold intervention approach for food insecurity, which are reducing the degree of exposure to the hazards that contribute to food insecurity or increase the ability of communities to cope with those hazards [5]. Hazards that contribute to food insecurity may include: Human-made disasters – war or chemical/radiologic contamination, Climatic events – droughts, storms, or flooding, and Disease or pest outbreaks that impact agriculture [9, 10]. Any one or a combination of these events may constitute an agricultural emergency, which will be defined in this chapter. Food aid has been a cornerstone of

The views and information presented are those of the author and do not represent the official position of the U.S. Army Medical Department Center and School Health Readiness Center of Excellence, the U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, or the Departments of Army/Navy/ Air Force, Department of Defense, or U.S. Government. A. Hydrick (*) Long Term Health Education and Training Program, U.S. Army, University of South Florida College of Public Health, Tampa, FL, USA e-mail: [email protected] © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 A. J. Masys et al. (eds.), Global Health Security, Advanced Sciences and Technologies for Security Applications, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-23491-1_2

13

14

A. Hydrick

humanitarian assistance for nearly half a century, but has been found to be costly and unsustainable if the hazard cannot be immediately eliminated [4, 10–12]. Therefore, development of agriculture toward food self-sufficiency has become the new focus of world leaders in addressing the food insecurity challenges of today [4, 13]. The purpose of this chapter is to introduce agricultural emergencies and provide some case examples, specifically transboundary disease (TBD) events, that have threatened sustainable agriculture worldwide. This discussion is not meant to provide a detailed description of every threat to sustainable agriculture but will provide a basic working knowledge of the area from which the reader can develop his or her own knowledge base.

2 Food Self-Sufficiency: The New Goal of Food Security According to the UN, investment in small farming operations and improving agricultural technology can assist transition of small subsistence farmers to highimpact commercial productions that increase food security and improve social capital by adding “marketable surpluses” [13]. In other words, the new goal of many international organizations is the development of high-impact sustainable agriculture to create a state of food self-sufficiency, which is the ability of a country or community to meet or exceed its own food needs through domestic agricultural production [4, 13, 14]. This section will introduce the importance of domestic agriculture and food self-sufficiency in the world today. The ability of a country to domestically produce even half of its own food requirements means improved food security for communities, less vulnerability to price fluctuations in the international market, increased participation in the global food trade, and increased social stability and trust of the people [2, 6, 14]. Establishment, or re-establishment, of local agricultural markets in war-torn areas has been shown to improve the sense of social security and welfare, which increases regional stability [12, 15]. Vulnerable populations, especially women, greatly benefit from development of commercial agriculture and return of these markets through improving social capital [15]. It is estimated that 950 million people (16% of the world population) cover their demand for agricultural products using international trade, and there are about 2.5 billion small-scale farmers worldwide that subsist primarily on their own agricultural production. Most of these individuals are in North Africa and South Asia, which are also the most food insecure areas of the world [6, 16]. Conversely, many of the most food secure countries in the world are neither major importers or exporters of food, indicating that they are likely producing and consuming most of their food domestically (Table 1). These examples indicate that food self-sufficiency can be associated with improving food security and social stability.

Agricultural Emergencies: Factors and Impacts in the Spread of. . .

15

Table 1 Comparison of top food secure countries to top countries in agricultural trade Rank 1 2 3 4 5

Food security index Singapore Ireland U.S. and U.K.a Netherlands Australia

Top food importing countries China U.S. Germany Japan U.K.

Top food exporting countries U.S. Brazil Netherlands Germany France

These rankings were obtained from the FAOSTAT (2017) and the Global Food Security Index (2018) [17, 18] a The United States of America (U.S.) and the United Kingdom (U.K.) were tied for third rank Table 2 Top producers of staple commodities eorldwide Rank 1 2 3 4 5

Maize U.S.a Chinaa Brazil Argentina Mexico

Rice China India Indonesia Bangladesh Vietnam

Wheat China India Russiaa U.S. Canada

Roots and tubers Ethiopia D.R.a Pakistan Indonesia Namibia

Potato China India Russia Ukraine U.S.

Cottonseed China India Pakistan U.S. Brazil

These rankings were obtained from the FAOSTAT Countries by commodity page for the year 2016 [19] a China China (mainland), D.R. Dominican Republic, Russia Russian Federation, U.S. United States of America

There are a number of societal benefits to obtaining a state of food selfsufficiency, but the social and economic benefits of this autonomous state is complicated [14, 18]. The assumption is that food security should be intrinsically linked to robust domestic agricultural production. However, Mainland China, which is a top producer of nearly all staple commodities (Table 2), is also the number one global food importer, and is still ranked 46 in the world on the Global Food Security Index (GFSI) [17]. Conversely, the U.S. is a top staple food producer, food importer and exporter, and is a top ranked food secure nation (Tables 1 and 2). Many countries, like Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, are able to meet their food requirements almost purely through trade due to economic wealth stemming from other industry [14]. The amount of global food trade is increasing with over one-sixth of agricultural products entering international market [14]. This allows for many countries with no agricultural production capability to attain food security, while countries with robust domestic agricultural systems supplement and improve stability of their food resources through international trade [14, 16]. However, the concern is that, as populations grow and resources become increasingly scarce, the lack of food selfsufficiency in some countries will cause food insecurity and destabilized those nations [16]. Therefore, food self-sufficiency would not only provide social, political, and economic benefit at the local national level today, but is expected to also improve sustainability and stability of agricultural systems into the future.

16

A. Hydrick

3 Agricultural Emergencies Definition Agricultural emergencies are a threat to the stability and development of food selfsufficiency worldwide. Many governmental and non-governmental organizations refer to “agricultural emergencies” in several contexts, but there are limited, often inconsistent, definitions or descriptions in literature and practice [20–23]. Some organizations refer to agricultural emergencies exclusively in terms of disease outbreak events [21], while others refer to emergencies in agriculture in broader context to include the impacts of climatic disasters [20, 22–24]. In 1998, the UN defined emergencies in the agricultural sector as those that threaten agricultural production and livelihoods to constitute a general or food emergency [25]. Similarly, Gilpen, Carabin, Regens, & Burden define agricultural emergencies as “any type of event, regardless of intent, that jeopardizes the economic stability of any sector of agriculture” [24]. These were the only two direct definitions of agricultural emergencies that could be found by this author. Commonalities between these definitions involve threats to production and economic stability on the large or small scale. This aligns with the widely accepted general definitions of emergencies and disasters, which are present or imminent hazardous conditions that threaten the lives and wellbeing of persons and property, disrupt normal systems, and require immediate coordinated response to prevent further damage or injury [20, 26]. Disasters are differentiated from emergencies by exceeding local coping capacities that requires outside aid or assistance [26]. The agricultural emergency definitions lean heavily on easily quantifiable impacts, such as monetary losses and production volume, making them most applicable to the commercialized agricultural systems that are characteristic of developed nations. There is some applicability to the small subsistence operations of the lesser developed nations, but the coping capacity of those systems are often more quickly overcome than in large-scale commercial agriculture [13, 27]. These definitions only partially capture the variety of social considerations involved in agricultural emergencies, which are generally poorly characterized in literature, either over or under sensationalizing the issue [2, 28]. Lubroth et al. reference the social impacts of agricultural emergencies, including psychosocial isolation, increases in suicides, and, in some cases, breakdown of rule of law as a result of disease outbreak in the agricultural systems [2]. Discussion of the economic impacts of agricultural emergencies is important to meet the intent of the formal definitions, but this discussion will also attempt to capture the social implications of the events presented.

4 Transboundary Agricultural Diseases Transboundary diseases (TBDs) are highly communicable agents responsible for high rates of morbidity and/or mortality in the affected populations, thus are usually socially, economically, and politically significant [29, 30]. Animal TBDs are capable

Agricultural Emergencies: Factors and Impacts in the Spread of. . .

17

of moving undetected over large geographic areas facilitated by airborne particles and mechanical or biologic vectors, which can rapidly escalate outbreaks and makes elimination of these diseases difficult [29–31]. There are several organizations dedicated to the monitoring and containment of these diseases worldwide [29, 30, 32]. The World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) is one such agency that provides surveillance and subject matter expertise for the World Trade Organization (WTO) in all matters involving animals and TBDs. The OIE lists 117 internationally reportable animal TBDs that affect species ranging from cattle and swine to bees and amphibians [29, 32]. While agricultural TBDs have largely declined in developed countries due to improved veterinary treatment, primary prevention, and biosecurity measures, they have remained a major source of economic and political instability in less affluent Asian, African, and South American nations [2, 9, 29, 33]. Outbreaks of these diseases in non-endemic countries are diverse and complex large population disasters that affect multiple species, and are increasing in frequency and scope of impact worldwide [32–35]. This section will discuss important TBDs and several important outbreaks that have occurred since the start of the twenty-first century.

4.1

Foot and Mouth Disease

One of the TBDs of greatest significance is foot and mouth disease (FMD), primarily because of the severe economic and political repercussions of the disease [36, 33]. FMD is a highly transmissible viral disease that causes fever and vesicular lesions progressing to erosions on feet, mouth, and udders of cloven-hooved animals, especially swine and bovine species [29, 32]. This disease is associated with medium to low mortality rates, especially in endemic zones, but is responsible for significant morbidity and obvious production loss [29, 37]. It is estimated that endemic zones, where the disease normally circulates, suffer losses of up to $21 billion annually due to the direct and indirect impacts of FMD [36]. Direct losses from FMD encompass production losses, like decreased weight gain, reproductive challenges, juvenile mortality, decreased milk production, and increased disease burden from secondary infections [29, 37]. Additionally, FMD endemic countries are subject to restrictions from affluent trade markets, which limits economic growth and stability [2, 33, 37]. Epizootic outbreaks of FMD can rapidly escalate in cost in non-endemic areas due, in part, to the direct and indirect impacts of the disease, but also to the cost of disease elimination efforts to regain FMD-free status [9, 38]. These risks are made more severe by the high mobility of the FMD virus, which can travel on aerosolized particles for up to 30 miles across land and further on dust and contaminated persons or equipment [29, 39–41]. Concerns over the challenges of being declared FMD endemic has led countries to sometimes extreme responses to outbreaks. Between 2000 and 2001, multiple isolated FMD outbreaks became one of the first seminal TBD events of the twenty-first century [33, 35, 38]. Table 3 summarizes several of the larger 2000–2001 FMD outbreaks. Many countries, like Japan or

18

A. Hydrick

Table 3 Summary of 2000–2001 FMD outbreaks

Duration Case No. Animals Slaughtered Financial cost (USD) Financial cost (% GDP)b

UK (2001) 7.5 months 2057 6.24 mil. 9.2 bil. 0.6

Uruguay (2000– 2001)a 4 months 2033 20,406 730 mil. 3.4

S. Korea (2000) 1 months 15 2216 433 mil.