Population Aging and Age-Friendly Transport in China 9811992428, 9789811992421

Table of contents :
Preface
Contents
1 Introduction
1.1 Research Background and Significance
1.1.1 Global Challenges of Aging to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
1.1.2 New Research Agenda for Age-Friendly Transport
1.1.3 Challenges of Aging in China
1.1.4 Transport System in China
1.1.5 Significance of This Book
1.2 The Organisation of This Book
1.3 Method and Data
1.3.1 Methods
1.3.2 Data
References
2 Aging: A Global Challenge
2.1 World Population Growth
2.1.1 Global Trends
2.1.2 Regional Differences
2.2 Population Aging
2.2.1 Global Trends
2.2.2 Regional Differences
2.2.3 Urban Population Aging
2.2.4 Aging in Rural Areas
2.3 Challenges of Population Aging
2.3.1 Challenges in the Workforce and Economy
2.3.2 Challenges in Public Finance and Social Security
2.3.3 Challenges in Governance and Service
2.4 Challenges in Transport Facilities and Service
2.5 Conclusion
References
3 Aging and Transport
3.1 Travel Needs of Older People
3.1.1 Physiological Characteristics and Psychological Needs
3.1.2 Social Activities and Communication Needs
3.1.3 Travel Needs
3.2 Travel Behaviour and the Influencing Factors for Older People
3.2.1 Travel Frequency
3.2.2 Travel Purpose
3.2.3 Travel Mode
3.3 Age-Friendly Transport
3.3.1 Concept and Implication
3.3.2 Composition of Age-Friendly Transport
3.3.3 Features
3.4 Conclusion
References
4 Progress and Problems with Age-Friendly Transport Policies
4.1 General Policies and Measures
4.2 Age-Friendly and Barrier-Free Transport
4.2.1 Existing Policies
4.2.2 Current Problems
4.2.3 Poor Quality of Design and Construction for Barrier-Free Transport
4.3 Age-Friendly Walking System
4.3.1 Existing Policies
4.3.2 Current Problems
4.4 Age-Friendly Public Transport Systems
4.4.1 Existing Policies
4.4.2 Current Problems
4.5 Attention to the Traffic Safety of Older People
4.5.1 Existing Policies
4.5.2 Current Problems
4.6 Conclusion
References
5 Aging in China
5.1 Development of China’s Aging
5.1.1 Definition of Aging
5.1.2 China’s Population Growth
5.1.3 Process of China’s Aging
5.1.4 Spatial Differences in Aging
5.2 Factors of Aging in China
5.2.1 Family Planning Policy
5.2.2 Improvements in Medical Service
5.2.3 Change of Social Attitude
5.3 Social Impacts of Aging
5.3.1 Shortage of Labour
5.3.2 Changes in Consumer Demand
5.3.3 Increasing Social Burden
5.4 Trends in Aging
5.4.1 Long-term Trend of Population Aging
5.4.2 The UN’s Projection of China’s Aging Level
5.4.3 Projection of Aging in China
5.5 Conclusion
References
6 Travel Needs of Older People
6.1 Travel Needs Generated by Activities Needs
6.1.1 Demand for Participation and Communication
6.1.2 Problems with Social Activities and Participation
6.2 Transport Requirements Based on Physiological Characteristics
6.2.1 Physiological Characteristics
6.2.2 Age-Friendly Transport Requirements
6.3 Conclusion
References
7 Travel Behaviour of Older People
7.1 Daily Travel Behaviour
7.1.1 Travel Frequency
7.1.2 Travel Purpose
7.1.3 Travel Mode
7.1.4 Travel Duration
7.1.5 Departure Time
7.2 Changes in the Travel Characteristics of Older People
7.2.1 Travel Frequency
7.2.2 Travel Purpose
7.2.3 Travel Mode
7.2.4 Travel Duration
7.2.5 Departure Time
7.3 Characteristics of Recreational Trips of Older People
7.3.1 Travel Frequency
7.3.2 Travel Duration
7.3.3 Travel Mode
7.3.4 Departure Time
7.4 Characteristics of Shopping Trips of Older People
7.4.1 Travel Frequency
7.4.2 Travel Duration
7.4.3 Travel Mode
7.4.4 Departure Time
7.5 Conclusion
References
8 Factors in the Travel Behaviour of Older People
8.1 Factors Affecting Travel Intensity
8.1.1 Factors
8.1.2 Two-level Logistic Regression Model for Whether People Travel or Not
8.1.3 Ordinal Logistic Regression Model for Travel Frequency
8.1.4 Discussion
8.2 Factors in Travel Mode and Duration
8.2.1 Factors
8.2.2 Multinomial Logit Model
8.2.3 OLS Regression Model for Travel Duration
8.2.4 Discussion
8.3 Conclusion
References
9 Building Age-Friendly Transport in China
9.1 Travel and Service in Aging Areas
9.1.1 Barrier-Free Transport Facilities
9.1.2 Age-Friendly Public Transport
9.1.3 Safe Walking Environment
9.1.4 Age-Friendly Driving System
9.1.5 Age-Friendly Traffic Signs
9.1.6 Green Transport
9.2 Basic Guarantee of Age-Friendly Transport
9.2.1 Establish and Improve the System of Law, Regulation and Policy
9.2.2 Set up a Standard System of Age-Friendly Transport
9.2.3 Enhance the Management and Maintenance of an Age-Friendly Environment
9.2.4 Foster Age-Friendly Awareness and Develop Universal Design
9.3 Age-Friendly Walking System
9.3.1 Overall Planning and Construction
9.3.2 Implementation of Design Standards
9.3.3 Regular Maintenance
9.3.4 Improvement in Walking Comfort
9.4 Age-Friendly Public Transport Service
9.4.1 Promoting Public Transport
9.4.2 Design and Planning of Networks and Timetables for Public Transport
9.4.3 Design of Vehicles and Stops
9.4.4 Improvements in the Bus Service
9.4.5 Develop Customised Buses
9.4.6 Age-Friendly Rail Transport
9.4.7 Age-Friendly Taxi Service
9.4.8 Age-Friendly Guiding Information
9.5 Attention to the Traffic Safety of Older People
9.5.1 Improving Awareness of Transport Safety
9.5.2 Road Safety Projects
9.5.3 Improved Management of Low-Speed Electric Vehicles for Older People
9.5.4 Improving the Driving System and Reducing the Driving Risk of Older People
9.6 Assessment of Age-Friendly Transport
References
10 Conclusion and Outlook
References
Index

Citation preview

Population, regional development and transport

Pengjun Zhao Jinxin Xie

Population Aging and Age-Friendly Transport in China

Population, Regional Development and Transport Series Editor Pengjun Zhao, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, China

This book series chiefly explores population change, regional development and transport in contemporary China. Its goal is to enhance our current understanding of population, regional development and sustainable transport in a context of rapid urbanization and transition – characterized by the shift from a centrally planned system to a market system, together with growing economic globalization and political decentralization. The series will enrich the existing literature on population studies, regional development studies and transport studies. In particular, it highlights academic research on the interactions between population, regional development and transport. It will also shed new light on government practices with regard to regional development planning and management and transport investment.

Pengjun Zhao · Jinxin Xie

Population Aging and Age-Friendly Transport in China

Pengjun Zhao School of Urban Planning and Design Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School Shenzhen, China

Jinxin Xie College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing, China

College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University Beijing, China

ISSN 2662-4613 ISSN 2662-4621 (electronic) Population, Regional Development and Transport ISBN 978-981-19-9242-1 ISBN 978-981-19-9243-8 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-9243-8 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore

Preface

Population aging is a major change in global population, and age-friendly transport needs to be considered. China is seeing a rapid growth of total population size and the proportion of the old population. The aging of the population is not only bringing a rapidly increasing old population, but also the increasing demands of older people. Therefore, it has brought great challenges to urban construction and services, but there has been little consideration of changing population structures and the needs of individuals. One concern is the change that needs to be made for older people in the field of transport, which plays an important role in social participation and daily life. Age-friendly transport is needed for an age-friendly society and sustainable development. However, compared to other issues, less attention has gone to the travel needs of older people and age-friendly transport in China. This book aims at making clear the travel needs and travel behavior of older people in China, and it explores how to build an age-friendly transport system. It is the first book to cover population aging in China, cover the travel needs and travel behavior of China’s older people and talk about age-friendly transport in China. It determines the general pattern of China’s older people by the combination of theoretical illustration and empirical study. Chapter 1 gives an introduction to this book. It first introduces the background of the study, expounds its significance and makes clear the key issues. Chapter 2 provides an overview of global aging. It analyzes the trend of world population growth and aging, and it talks about many aspects of the challenges of population aging. Chapter 3 reviews the research progress on aging and transport. The research progress is reviewed concerning the travel needs, travel behavior and factors affecting older people, and finally age-friendly transport. Chapter 4 reviews the progress on and problems with age-friendly transport policies in China. It lists related policies and problems with transport for older people, focusing on the four aspects of barrier-free facilities, the walking system, public transport and traffic safety. Chapter 5 focuses on population aging in China. It describes the process and current characteristics of population aging, uncovers the factors of population aging v

vi

Preface

and its social implications, and finally makes a projection of aging to predict the age structure in China by 2050. Chapter 6 uncovers the travel needs of older people in China. It summarizes the travel needs of older people and the requirements for age-friendly transport services, with the help of open data from different sampling surveys. Chapter 7 shows the travel behavior of older people via the results of a travel survey. Taking Beijing as an example, daily travel characteristics of older people are identified, including travel frequency, travel purpose, travel mode, travel duration and departure time. Chapter 8 explores the factors in the travel behavior of older people. Based on the data from Beijing in 2014, different regression models are applied to discover the factors in travel frequency and travel pattern. The explanatory factors from the four aspects of personal attributes, household attributes, built environment and travel attributes are discussed. Chapter 9 provides advice and framework on assessment of age-friendly transport for China. According to the needs and travel behavior of China’s older people and learning from international experience, this chapter puts forward a strategy for building age-friendly transport in China. In addition, it provides a framework to guide the construction, supervision and assessment of age-friendly transport. Chapter 10 gives the conclusion for whole book and shows the outlook for the development of age-friendly transport in China. Presenting a comprehensive overview of the issue, this book is designed to help general readers interested in population aging, the travel behavior of older people and age-friendly transport in China. It gives a portrait of China’s older people’s travel patterns, which may be helpful for the construction of age-friendly transport in China. Beijing, China

Pengjun Zhao Jinxin Xie

Acknowledgments We acknowledge the financial support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42130402 and No. 41925003). The authors are responsible for all errors and interpretations.

Contents

1

2

Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 Research Background and Significance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.1 Global Challenges of Aging to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.2 New Research Agenda for Age-Friendly Transport . . . . . . . 1.1.3 Challenges of Aging in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.4 Transport System in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.5 Significance of This Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 The Organisation of This Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 Method and Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.1 Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.2 Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1 1 1 3 4 8 10 12 13 13 16 19

Aging: A Global Challenge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 World Population Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.1 Global Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.2 Regional Differences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Population Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1 Global Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2 Regional Differences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.3 Urban Population Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.4 Aging in Rural Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Challenges of Population Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.1 Challenges in the Workforce and Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.2 Challenges in Public Finance and Social Security . . . . . . . . 2.3.3 Challenges in Governance and Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 Challenges in Transport Facilities and Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.5 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

25 25 25 26 28 28 28 32 35 36 36 37 37 38 39 40

vii

viii

3

4

5

Contents

Aging and Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 Travel Needs of Older People . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1.1 Physiological Characteristics and Psychological Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1.2 Social Activities and Communication Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1.3 Travel Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 Travel Behaviour and the Influencing Factors for Older People . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.1 Travel Frequency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.2 Travel Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2.3 Travel Mode . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3 Age-Friendly Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.1 Concept and Implication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.2 Composition of Age-Friendly Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.3.3 Features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

43 43

Progress and Problems with Age-Friendly Transport Policies . . . . . . 4.1 General Policies and Measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 Age-Friendly and Barrier-Free Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.1 Existing Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.2 Current Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.3 Poor Quality of Design and Construction for Barrier-Free Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3 Age-Friendly Walking System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.1 Existing Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.3.2 Current Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4 Age-Friendly Public Transport Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4.1 Existing Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.4.2 Current Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5 Attention to the Traffic Safety of Older People . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5.1 Existing Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.5.2 Current Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.6 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

67 67 67 73 76

Aging in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1 Development of China’s Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.1 Definition of Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.2 China’s Population Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.3 Process of China’s Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.4 Spatial Differences in Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 Factors of Aging in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.1 Family Planning Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.2 Improvements in Medical Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

95 95 95 96 99 109 112 112 119

43 44 45 46 46 47 48 52 52 54 55 59 60

77 80 80 82 84 84 86 89 89 90 92 93

Contents

6

7

ix

5.2.3 Change of Social Attitude . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 Social Impacts of Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.1 Shortage of Labour . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.2 Changes in Consumer Demand . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.3 Increasing Social Burden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4 Trends in Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4.1 Long-term Trend of Population Aging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4.2 The UN’s Projection of China’s Aging Level . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.4.3 Projection of Aging in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.5 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

120 124 124 128 129 133 133 135 137 143 143

Travel Needs of Older People . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 Travel Needs Generated by Activities Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.1 Demand for Participation and Communication . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.2 Problems with Social Activities and Participation . . . . . . . . 6.2 Transport Requirements Based on Physiological Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.1 Physiological Characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2.2 Age-Friendly Transport Requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

145 145 145 150

Travel Behaviour of Older People . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 Daily Travel Behaviour . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.1 Travel Frequency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.2 Travel Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.3 Travel Mode . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.4 Travel Duration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.5 Departure Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 Changes in the Travel Characteristics of Older People . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.1 Travel Frequency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.2 Travel Purpose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.3 Travel Mode . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.4 Travel Duration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.5 Departure Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 Characteristics of Recreational Trips of Older People . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.1 Travel Frequency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.2 Travel Duration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.3 Travel Mode . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.4 Departure Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4 Characteristics of Shopping Trips of Older People . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4.1 Travel Frequency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4.2 Travel Duration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4.3 Travel Mode . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4.4 Departure Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

167 167 167 171 173 174 179 181 181 181 183 185 186 186 187 187 188 188 189 189 191 191 192

152 152 159 163 164

x

Contents

7.5 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 192 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 194 8

9

Factors in the Travel Behaviour of Older People . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1 Factors Affecting Travel Intensity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1.1 Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1.2 Two-level Logistic Regression Model for Whether People Travel or Not . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1.3 Ordinal Logistic Regression Model for Travel Frequency . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1.4 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2 Factors in Travel Mode and Duration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.1 Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.2 Multinomial Logit Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.3 OLS Regression Model for Travel Duration . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.4 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

195 195 195

Building Age-Friendly Transport in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1 Travel and Service in Aging Areas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1.1 Barrier-Free Transport Facilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1.2 Age-Friendly Public Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1.3 Safe Walking Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1.4 Age-Friendly Driving System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1.5 Age-Friendly Traffic Signs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1.6 Green Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2 Basic Guarantee of Age-Friendly Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2.1 Establish and Improve the System of Law, Regulation and Policy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2.2 Set up a Standard System of Age-Friendly Transport . . . . . 9.2.3 Enhance the Management and Maintenance of an Age-Friendly Environment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2.4 Foster Age-Friendly Awareness and Develop Universal Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3 Age-Friendly Walking System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3.1 Overall Planning and Construction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3.2 Implementation of Design Standards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3.3 Regular Maintenance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3.4 Improvement in Walking Comfort . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4 Age-Friendly Public Transport Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4.1 Promoting Public Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4.2 Design and Planning of Networks and Timetables for Public Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4.3 Design of Vehicles and Stops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4.4 Improvements in the Bus Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

233 233 233 233 234 235 235 236 236

201 207 211 213 213 221 226 229 230 231

237 238 238 239 239 239 240 240 240 241 241 241 242 243

Contents

9.4.5 Develop Customised Buses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4.6 Age-Friendly Rail Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4.7 Age-Friendly Taxi Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4.8 Age-Friendly Guiding Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5 Attention to the Traffic Safety of Older People . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5.1 Improving Awareness of Transport Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5.2 Road Safety Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5.3 Improved Management of Low-Speed Electric Vehicles for Older People . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.5.4 Improving the Driving System and Reducing the Driving Risk of Older People . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.6 Assessment of Age-Friendly Transport . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

xi

244 244 245 245 246 246 246 247 247 248 249

10 Conclusion and Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 252 Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255

Chapter 1

Introduction

1.1 Research Background and Significance 1.1.1 Global Challenges of Aging to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Population aging is a major change in global population, and an important reflection of developed society and advanced civilisation. The increase in human life expectancy and the decrease in fertility are inevitably leading to the shift of the population to a higher age all over the world. Almost every country is seeing growth in its total population size and its proportion of old people. According to the United Nations (UN), in 2019, the global population aged 65 or above was 703 million, and it was expected to reach 1.5 billion in 2050 (UN, 2020). The proportion of people aged 65 or above in the world has risen from 6 to 9% over the past 30 years, and it will likely rise to 16% in 2050. In addition, the growth rate of older people is very fast. During the nearly 30 years from 1990 to 2019, the number of people over 80 years old in the world increased from 54 to 143 million, and it is expected to reach 426 million by 2050. Global aging will bring challenges in the economy, society, government function and SDGs. Many economists believe that population aging will reduce output growth (Kohl & O’Brien, 1998) and that rapidly aging countries will see slower economic growth (Börsch-Supan & Ludwig, 2009). However, other scholars do not believe that population aging will lead to a violent economic crisis for the world because this will be offset by a decrease in young dependents (Bloom et al., 2010) and an increase of productivity and higher labour participation rates (Faruqee & Mühleisen, 2003). Changes in the economy due to population aging may lead to challenges for social security. As higher transfers will be paid to growing numbers of seniors, social security expenditures will likely rise relative to receipts and tend to push the fiscal balance toward deficit (Bloom et al., 2011). The social implications of population aging also come in social attitudes toward older people, family care, intergenerational © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022 P. Zhao and J. Xie, Population Aging and Age-Friendly Transport in China, Population, Regional Development and Transport, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-9243-8_1

1

2

1 Introduction

links and caring professions (Tinker, 2002). In addition, the aging of the population brings great challenges across a wide range of local government functions (O’Brien & Phibbs, 2011) and the achievement of the SDGs adopted by the UN in 2015. The SDGs are designed to make comprehensive improvements in society, economy and the environment from 2015 to 2030, and to encourage sustainable development. The great challenges brought by global aging will hinder the achievement of the SDGs concerning the economy and society, and they require action to deal with population aging and to create age-friendly cities. Population aging makes it important to develop age-friendly transport to enable the mobility of older people. Mobility is important for older people, keeping them connected to family and friends and helping them to get the services they want (Müller & Meyer, 2018). Transport is the crucial component for older people to maintain mobility, and having transport services to go everywhere whenever they want to is one of the features of mobility (Suen & Mitchell, 2000). Older people’s mobility declines (Rantakokko et al., 2013) as the result of their decline in functional mobility, perception and cognition (Butler et al., 2009; Fiedler, 2007) with age, calling for age-friendly transport. Compared to younger people, older people have different travel needs and travel behaviour, and there are even differences within the older population. Therefore, population aging will bring great challenges to transport infrastructure and transport service. Older people have higher risks in travelling, which calls for better safety in the transport system. The decline in driving ability in later life makes public transport more important, which also raises requirements for satisfying older people’s travel needs for public transport and service, such as accessibility, affordability and adequate information that is easy to understand. The SDGs put forward some requirements for equality and transport. In the ninth goal, Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure, developing quality, reliable, sustainable and resilient infrastructure including transport facilities, is required to support economic development and human well-being. Most importantly, it should be affordable and equally accessible to all. The tenth goal, Reduced Inequalities, calls for the promotion of social, economic and political inclusion of all, irrespective of age, sex, disability or other status. For equal opportunity, orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility of people should be guaranteed. In the eleventh goal, Sustainable Cities and Communities, providing access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport systems for all is required. This requires the expansion of public transport, considering the needs of those in vulnerable situations, such as women, children, older people and the disabled to improve road safety. These goals all attach great importance to equity and inclusion, calling for better mobility and opportunity for all, including older people. Age-friendly transport contributes to the achievement of the SDGs. Age-friendly transport comes from the World Health Organization (WHO, 2007) initiative for age-friendly cities, as transport is one of the eight topics in the framework of an agefriendly city. Building an age-friendly city affects all aspects of urban and community construction and promotes the construction of inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable cities and human settlements, which is of great significance for sustainable development. An age-friendly city aims to help people to grow older actively within

1.1 Research Background and Significance

3

their families, neighbourhoods, and civil society and ensure of equal opportunities for their social participation (Fitzgerald & Caro, 2014). On the smaller scale, an agefriendly community is defined as “a place where older people are actively involved, valued, and supported with infrastructure and services that effectively accommodate their needs” (Alley et al., 2007, p. 4), and it offers people rich opportunities for successful living (Fitzgerald & Caro, 2014) with the help of age-friendly transport. Age-friendly transport is of great significance for promoting sustainable development, by improving transport efficiency and humanistic care of the whole society. First, age-friendly transport requires a reliable, accessible and affordable transport infrastructure, which contributes to SDG 9.1 and sustainable infrastructure. Second, age-friendly transport could improve the mobility of older people and other vulnerable groups, which would help in equal opportunity and social participation, reduce inequities, and achieve SDGs 10.2, 10.3 and 10.7. Third, age-friendly transport would make travel easier for older people by providing safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport systems and developing public transport, perfectly responding to the requirements of SDG 11.2. Age-friendly transport not only is friendly to older people, but also provides benefits for the whole community and city via an inclusive transport system and equal opportunity of mobility with safety, reliability, accessibility and affordability.

1.1.2 New Research Agenda for Age-Friendly Transport Age-friendly transport was studied with the framework promoted by WHO (2007). It first provided an age-friendly transport checklist for global cities to build age-friendly transport. Though WHO tried to provide a global perspective in dealing with various aspects of population aging with an active aging framework, it focused more on aging issues in the developed world than on giving a balanced view (Steels, 2015). Building on the WHO’s foundation, some scholars have contributed to developing the framework (Broome et al., 2010) and including intelligent transport (Shiau & Huang, 2014). Musselwhite (2016) developed a model involving four components of an age-friendly transport system for older people, namely local neighbourhoods, public and community transport, transport strategy policy and transport plans. Many countries have attempted to develop age-friendly transport. In some countries, although it may not be called age-friendly transport, it still conveys a similar meaning. Canada supports independent life and work, promotes active community participation for older people and attaches great importance to accessible transport (Mercado et al., 2010). It calls for an inclusive society, responding to the mobility challenges of older people and of the disabled and removing undue obstacles for them (Transport Canada, 2003). With the highest percentage of older people, Japan formulated an Outline of Countermeasures for Longevity Society in 1986, proposing a series of transport patterns and policies adapted to the aging society. To achieve a barrierfree environment, Japan promulgated the Barrier Free Law and the Barrier Free

4

1 Introduction

Transport Law, formulating detailed technical standards and goals for barrier-free transport. Age-friendly transport is a new research agenda in the field of transport geography. The topics of concern in transport geography have changed significantly over the last half century. At first, it focused on spatial structure organisation and spatial interaction (Taaffe, 1996), and then it turned to transport and the economy, environment, society and policy. As transport was deregulated, the attribute of transport services emerged more, with service being the predominant term in transport geography in 1994 (Gui et al., 2016), and the topics turned to be services rather than facilities. Recently terms such as network analysis return (Ducruet & Lugo, 2013; Gorman et al., 2007; J. Lin & Ban, 2013), critical return (Kwan & Schwanen, 2009), cultural turn (Walton, 2006) and mobility turn (Shaw & Hesse, 2010; Shaw & Sidaway, 2011; Sheller & Urry, 2006) have emerged. In addition, social topics or problems have received much attention, such as transport inequality and public health (Schwanen, 2016), which can also be called social orientation. The sustainability of transport is increasingly a hot spot in transport geography research, and topics like environmental impact, sustainable development, sustainability and inequality are getting increasing discussion, replacing transport efficiency. The transport behaviour and transport needs of those vulnerable groups like women, older people or low-income people has become a new topic (Georggi & Pendyala, 2000; Law, 1999; Srinivasan & Rogers, 2005). The rise of time geography provides more attention to spatial and temporal behaviour in a micro perspective, and the research unit changes to the community or individuals from particular regions or cities (Zhang, Chai, et al., 2007). Those new turns on sustainability and transport inequality have led to more public attention to how to ensure proper access and service for older people and increased importance for age-friendly transport.

1.1.3 Challenges of Aging in China With the social and economic development in China, the trend of population aging is becoming more and more prominent. Early in 2001, the proportion of people aged 65 or above in China reached 7.1%, and that of the people aged 60 or above was 10.5%. Since then, China has become an aging society,1 and population aging has been an important demographic characteristic for a long time. According to the data from the Seventh National Population Census2 in 2020, the total number of people 1

It is also recognised that China first became an aging society in 1999 with the population of people 60 or over exceeding 10%. 2 The National Population Census of China has been carried out seven times since the foundation of the People’s Republic of China: in 1953, 1964, 1982, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020. The standard point of time of the Seventh National Population Census was midnight on November 1, 2020. Conducted by National Bureau of Statistics, it covers all Chinese citizens living in mainland China and those living abroad on temporary visas, as well as foreigners living in mainland China for over 6 months. The statistical data on demography in the years of census are much more reliable than

1.1 Research Background and Significance

5

aged 65 or above in China was 191 million, accounting for 13.5%, 4.63 percentage points higher than that of the previous Census in 2010. In the future, the degree of aging will continue to deepen. There are 12 provincial administrative regions (Liaoning, Chongqing, Sichuan, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Shandong, Anhui, Hunan, Tianjin and Hubei) with proportions of people aged 65 or above exceeding 14%, reaching the international standard of an aged society. As the capital and one of the largest megacities in China, Beijing has an active floating population and attracts many young people. However, it is still inevitably on the way to aging, and it has substantial aging with a large old population. According to the Census in 2020, the permanent resident population3 aged 65 or above in Beijing accounted for 13.3%, or 2.91 million old people. The rapid aging in China brings several great challenges. As the population ages and the share of the working-age population decreases, the labour supply will inevitably fall and the demographic dividend will recede. The demographic change contributes to labour shortages in a way, and it will unfavourable for global competition in manufacturing with increasing wage rates (Banister, 2005). However, population aging is not always harmful to economic growth. The longer life expectancy will increase the savings and education investment, which is positive with higher income levels, though the effect could be reversed if the heavy burden of supporting parents crowds out savings or education investment (Hsu et al., 2018). The population aging was seemingly so sudden that China was poorly prepared to understand it, and China responded to it with insufficient resources. Compared to countries with similar levels of per-capita income, China has a larger proportion of older people (Cai & Wang, 2006). With comparatively low per-capita income, aging in China is causing great pressure on the social security and medical insurance systems. Early in the 1980s, it was foreseen that providing pensions for large numbers of older people in the future would require larger sums of money from work people (Goldstein & Goldstein, 1986). Older people may face a lack of support: the security system is seriously absent and the service system lags behind (Mu & Zhang, 2011). Population aging also poses a challenge of care for older people. The increasing old population is causing a large demand for daily care and health care from families, institutions and hospitals. The strict implementation of family planning policy in China for several decades, best known as the 1-child policy raises the question of whether a couple who are both from single-child families can care for their four older parents while raising their children (Flaherty et al., 2007). Therefore, population aging will increase the burden of caring for older people for families and society. those in other years, which usually come from population sampling surveys. Meanwhile, there are often sudden changes in the numerical values at the point of census in consecutive demographic data by year unless previous data are corrected according to the census data, which are considered the data closest to the real situation. 3 The permanent resident population here refers to population staying at one location for over 6 months in the year. More specifically, it includes people who have that location as their registered residence, those living at the location while away from their registered residence for over 6 months, and those registering at the location while going away for fewer than 6 months or working or studying abroad for the time being.

6

1 Introduction

Furthermore, providing sufficient professional care for older people is a big challenge for the society. The rapid aging in China brings a great challenge to urban management and services. In addition to the increasing demand for living supporting facilities for the aged, such as nursing homes and flats for older people (Hu & Ma, 2000), more attention should be paid to their needs in leisure and daily trips (Y. Sun et al., 2001). It is an important objective of urban construction to meet the rapidly growing demands of old people in the design and construction of transport facilities, buildings and public sites. Especially in cities that developed early, older buildings cannot meet the daily needs of the increasing old population. It is a big challenge to transform facilities and communities and to make them more suitable for older people. Also, population aging brings challenges to urban spatial arrangement (X. Li & Tian, 2011). Older people like outdoor sites with good conditions and necessary facilities near their houses (Zhou et al., 2003). High accessibility, safety, peace and good visual effect are also important considerations (Yang, 2009). Arranging the spaces suitably for older people to participate in various activities easily and creating free environments for people’s later lives while facing a shortage of urban land has become an ongoing problem for urban planners and builders. Population aging brings new challenges to urban services as well. After older people retire, they are much more reliant on and affected by their surroundings (W. Wang, 2002). The physical and mental differences between older people and the younger call for special services for older people. Therefore, it is important for residential communities (W. Wang, 2002), the transport system (H. Mao & Ren, 2005), public places (Yang, 2009; Zhou et al., 2003) and green land (Guo & Xu, 2009; Y. Mao, 1999) to provide more care and services for older people. The ways cities and communities adapt to the growing old population has become a challenge that cannot be ignored. The aging society puts forward some requirements for China’s transport system. First of all, the road safety of the aged is becoming more and more important, and more attention on the research and practice of transport safety in the aging society is necessary (Zhu & Wang, 2001). For a new urban transport system in the aging society, the efficiency of public transport needs to be improved by reasonable transport and land use distribution, and an urban slow transport system should be created, with a focus on human care (F. Li & Huang, 2010). A complete and modern city adapted to aging should provide barrier-free facilities throughout, including barrier-free walking systems (X. Li, 1998). Efforts to address population aging in China officially began in the 1980s, and they have grown quickly since the 2000s. From the 1950s–1970s, though a handful of articles of social insurance system were proposed, there was little support for the aged or preparation for population aging. The founding of the China National Committee on Ageing in 1982 saw the work on aging officially included in the agenda of China’s government, while the policy on aging has been systematised and institutionalised as an independent and special system (G. Chen et al., 2003). The Seven-Year Development Outline of Work on Aging (1994–2000) by an association of 10 national departments undertook national work on aging in a planned way within a certain period, and it became part of the National Economic and Social

1.1 Research Background and Significance

7

Development Plan. The Law on the Protection of the Rights and Interests of Older People, first issued in 1996, marked the inclusion of work on aging and older people in the legalisation. The policy system on aging has gone into overdrive since the 2000s. The Decision on Enhancing the Work on Aging by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and China’s State Council in 2000 regarded aging as a critical social issue related to the national economy, people’s livelihoods and a long period of stability while China was becoming an aging society. More specific articles were brought into the revision of the Law on the Protection of the Rights and Interests of Older people in 2012, and several policies and measures on aging with more details have been introduced since then. China released its Medium- and Long-Term Plan for Responding Proactively to Population Aging in 2019, meaning that actively dealing with population aging has become a national strategy. China has tried to take a positive approach to population aging and older people. Early in the life of the China National Committee on Ageing in 1982, the goals of ensuring the aged received living support, medical services, working conditions, educational opportunities and recreational facilities were set and were written into the Law on the Protection of the Rights and Interests of Older People in 1996. Its revision in 2012 clarified that actively dealing with population aging was a long-term strategic task for China. The reform of endowment insurance was the first focus of policies on population aging, as mentioned in the annual government work report and Five-Year Plan for the Development of National Aging for the next 3 decades. Then, policies on endowment insurance were developed with more focus on rural older people, and more policies on old-age service systems were carried out to develop old-age industries. The transition of the main topic from social insurance and welfare to old-age services and medical care (T. Sun & Wang, 2021) saw the development in the work on older people from ensuring their survival to having them living better. Improving participation in social development is an important part of the national goal for older people, and policies and measures to do this have been gradually released. Some requirements have been put forward in the Medium- and Long-Term Plan for Responding Proactively to Population Aging, the general guide for China’s population aging, showing a positive attitude for the next 3 decades. Besides taking measures on older people, China is trying to alleviate population aging. To enhance the fertility rate and to slow down the pace of aging, China has loosened its family planning policy step by step. The family planning policy, best known as the 1-child policy, was strictly implemented as a national basic policy of China in 1982 to control population growth. With China’s population gradually aging after entering the twenty-first century, the government gradually adjusted the 1-child policy to a 2-child policy with different qualifications for parents at different times from 2002–2013. The family planning policy was revised to a universal 2-child

8

1 Introduction

policy4 and officially implemented nationwide in 2016. Since 2021, each couple has been free to have three children, and more supportive measures to encourage the bearing of children have been discussed.

1.1.4 Transport System in China China has developed rapidly and achieved huge success in its transport system since 1949. Nowadays, China has a comprehensive transport network consisting of airlines, trains, highways, subways and waterways. China’s transport has improved so much that ordinary people can share the fruit of social development in transport and benefit greatly from it. According to the statistics from 2020,5 China has 240 airports with 4,686 air routes and 408 million passengers each year, linking thousands of cities all over the world; the railway network has spread to 146.3 thousand kilometres all over China, of which the high-speed railway network extends to 37.9 thousand kilometres; the length of highways is 5.20 million kilometres, of which 0.16 million kilometres is motorway. Meanwhile, China has improved its urban transport significantly with 242.9 million private cars and 11.7 million buses, which play an important role in daily trips for older people. China’s older people have different travel behaviour from other groups. Many believe that older people have a lower travel frequency and shorter travel durations than the younger (Huang & Wu, 2015; H. Mao, 2005). However, some surveys show that older people make more trips than middle-aged people (Feng & Yang, 2015; Qu et al., 2001). The main travel purposes for China’s older people are leisure and shopping (L. Li, 2014), while some older people commute to work in Shenzhen City (Zhang, Mao, et al., 2007). Unlike Western senior citizens, older people in China prefer walking, bicycling and public transport (Feng & Yang, 2015; L. Li, 2014), to driving. China has taken measures to adapt the transport system to this demographic change. Providing convenient services for older people and the disabled is an important part of improving transport services. The main measures are the construction of barrier-free environments, fare concessions, transformation of facilities, innovation in service patterns and improvement of information services. The Law on the Protection of the Rights and Interests of Older People promulgated in 1996 states that local governments may, in the light of their condition, give preferential treatment and special consideration to older people who travel as visitors or tourists or take public transport. This provides a legal basis for local governments to implement preferential 4

The universal 2-child policy is a government-imposed limit of bearing children for each family imposed in China, allowing all couples to have two children. The policy has been adjusted several times, changing from the 1-child policy which allowed only one child for an ordinary family. It has been revised due to the demographic changes in China in recent years, and this is discussed in detail in Chap. 4. In 2021, it was replaced by a universal 3-child policy, showing a looser attitude toward bearing children from China’s government. 5 Data source: China Statistical Yearbook, 2021, National Bureau of Statistics.

1.1 Research Background and Significance

9

treatments for older people to take public transport. In the Guiding Instructions on Promoting the Construction of Liveable Environment for Older People issued by the China National Committee on Ageing in 2016, building an age-friendly travel environment was taken as a key task to promote a liveable environment for older people. It mandates strengthening barrier-free access in residential areas, building walking networks of community, developing public transport for older people and improving age-friendly transport services. The Implementing Instructions on Further Strengthening and Improving Travel Services for Older People and the Disabled encourages qualified cities to give priority to introducing low-floor buses in the future. The Instructions on Formulating and Performing Care Services for Older People mentions that urban public transport should receive support to provide preferential and convenient services for older people. Though there is still room for improvement, great progress has been made, especially in fare concessions and the transformation of facilities. In most cities, older people can take buses free or at half price, and there are also priority seats for older people or those in need. However, as China is aging more rapidly than it is getting wealthy, the current suitability of transport for older people is relatively low, and barrier-free transport systems have not been set up completely. Older people experience many difficulties in making trips by walking, bicycle or bus. For example, pavements are often occupied illegally, pedestrian crossings may be missing on roads, the coverage and connectivity of bicycle paths may not be sufficient, or platforms may be too high to be convenient for older people to get on and off buses. China’s population aging was first widely recognised in the early 1980s (Wu & Jiang, 2015) and research on the aging society began at that time (X. Wang, 1990). From the 1950s–1970s, the debate over China’s population focused on whether to control the growth of population, and research on the aging problem was minimal, with little attention to and preparation for the potential problem of population aging (G. Chen et al., 2003). The research on the aging society focused on topics like international practice, aging in industry, old-age support issues and economic development, while later scholars in urban planning contributed to dealing with population aging mainly from the aspects of old-age community, old-age care facilities, space for leisure activities, transport, green space and landscape, and technical regulations for planning (X. Li & Tian, 2011). The transport safety of older people attracts the most attention on transport in the early aging society (Zhu & Wang, 2001). Barrier-free transport (X. Li, 1998), the walking system (Cao, 1999) and the public transport system (F. Li & Huang, 2010) are also main topics for age-friendly transport in China. With the development of urbanisation and population aging, ensuring that older people drive safely gets more attention, while automatic driving is also considered. However, the research on age-friendly transport in China is not sufficient, lacking in specific age-friendly planning and evaluation systems. For population aging, many researchers have studied the family care industry, facilities and houses for older people extensively (X. Chen & Yang, 2013; Z. Chen et al., 2014; Qiu, 2010), while there have been fewer studies on age-friendly transport. On the one hand, age-friendly transport is usually regarded as a part of the age-friendly community or age-friendly

10

1 Introduction

city, and it has not received enough attention. On the other hand, studies on agefriendly transport are mostly limited to qualitative descriptions, superficial analysis and sweeping advice by drawing lessons from other countries (H. Mao & Huang, 2006; H. Mao & Ren, 2005). Many studies are only descriptive and merely list plenty of strategies and practices in different settings for convenience of older people. Some conclusions and advice are just proposals based on the results of travel surveys from various cities (Feng & Yang, 2015; Huang & Wu, 2015) without information on the demands of older people. Research on the effectiveness of those specific approaches and specific evaluation of age-friendly policies and interventions are needed urgently. The concept of age-friendly transport in China and the differences from those in other countries are not yet clear, needing more qualitative research in depth. More importantly, what China’s older people really need in transport calls for more research.

1.1.5 Significance of This Book This book makes important contributions to the existing literature in the following ways. Firstly, it provides new evidence on age-friendly transport. Many scholars have contributed extensively in the field of aging and age-friendly transport. A list of factors influencing transport need and travel behaviour of older people has been identified (Cui et al., 2017; Hildebrand, 2003). The availability, accessibility and affordability of transport make impacts on the travel preferences and mobility of the older (Guzman & Oviedo, 2018; T. G. Lin et al., 2014). Many measures have been taken to improve the age-friendliness transport and to increase the mobility of the older, including accessible transport (Suen & Mitchell, 2000), community transport (Metz, 2003), concessionary travel policy for older people (Mackett, 2014; Rye & Carreno, 2008) and driving licence possession policy (Siren & Hakamies-Blomqvist, 2004). However, there is still more to do. First, current research mostly focuses on older people in developed countries, while age-friendly transport in developing countries, where the population will age the fastest in the next few decades, gets insufficient attention. Second, there is a lack of consideration of a complete system of age-friendly transport. Most scholars talk about a walking system, public transport or driving alone, or they just make transport a part of an age-friendly city plan. Third, a scientific evaluation system for age-friendly transport needs more discussion. This study provides a supplement to research on age-friendly transport by taking China, the largest developing country with the largest number of older people, as an example. It offers a framework of assessment for age-friendly transport systems after proposing strategies and policies. In China, current research is not paying sufficient attention to the transport needs and travel behaviour of older people. This study is also an important supplement to research on older people and age-friendly transport in China. This study on China’s population aging and age-friendly transport will be a good supplement to worldwide research and make up for current deficiencies, providing something new to the theory of this field.

1.1 Research Background and Significance

11

Secondly, it rethinks China’s national strategies. The rapid aging of the population has brought a series of new challenges to planning in China. Meeting the demands of the aging society in urban and rural planning and construction is of great significance for the high-quality development of China. In November 2019, the Mediumand Long-Term Plan for Responding Proactively to Population Aging was released. As a strategic, comprehensive and guiding document for China to address population aging actively by the middle of this century, it announced a national strategy for responding actively to population aging. The plan deploys specific tasks to respond to five aspects of population aging. First, it calls for increasing the pension reserve and establishing a fairer and more sustainable social security system. Second, it highlights improving the effective supply of labour in the aging society. Third, it mandates building a high-quality health service system for older people. Fourth, it values the application of technology in responding to population aging. Last, it calls for the creation of an age-friendly society and the fostering of a social environment in which older people are respected, cared for, and live happily. In addition, according to a government work report submitted to the national legislature for deliberation in March 2021, China will develop a state strategy in actively dealing with population aging during the 14th Five-Year Plan6 (2021–2025) period. The plan and the report jointly announced the positive attitude of China toward population aging in the future. More consideration will be given to the demands of older people in future development, and positive measures will be taken to deal with all aspects of population aging. Although there is no clear requirement for age-friendly transport in the plan, it is potentially necessary for an age-friendly society. With the advancement of aging, age-friendly transport will become an inevitable trend in transport development and a potential requirement for the implementation of the strategy of responding proactively to population aging in China. Thirdly, it renews the current planning regulations and practices. As the phenomenon of population aging is proceeding faster than social and economic development in China, or rather, people are getting old before getting rich, the provision for older people is insufficient on a practical level. Though some general guidelines and instructions are issued by government, age-friendliness is absent from most current urban planning and transport planning. There is a lack of specific items in guides, contents or standards for urban planning or transport planning. On the one hand, current planning pays more attention to economic development and transport efficiency than to human care and age-friendly service. On the other hand, it is difficult to turn age-friendly principles and slogans into practical operations, leaving the 6

The Five-Year Plans are a series of national economic and social development initiatives issued since 1953 in China. As an important part of China’s national economic plan, the Five-Year Plan is a key characteristic of the socialist economy. A Five-Year Plan is established for the entire country, normally containing detailed social and economic development guidelines during the 5-year period. The first two Five-Year Plans were set for 1953–1957 and 1958–1962, and subsequent plans were made every five years without a break since 1966, the first year of the third Five-Year Plan. The 14th Five-Year Plan has been built for 2021–2025. Besides the primary Five-Year Plans of national economic and social development, there are various special Five-Year Plans for sectors or industries over the same period, such as the Five-Year Plan for comprehensive transport development.

12

1 Introduction

general guidelines in a dilemma. The study on the travel behaviour and travel needs of older people is the basis of building an age-friendly transport system. Making clear the travel behaviour and travel needs of older people helps to optimise their travel experience, provide advice to renew the current planning regulations, and support the planning and construction of age-friendly cities.

1.2 The Organisation of This Book This book explores the travel behaviour and travel needs of older people based on the current situation and developing trend of population aging in China, putting forward suggestions on the construction of age-friendly transport. This book addresses the following questions: (a) How is aging challenging the transport system in China? (b) What are the travel needs of older people and how do they travel in China? (c) How can one build age-friendly transport in China? This book focuses on people in China of 65 years old or older. With the data from the statistical yearbook of each year, it first analyses the features and trends of population aging in China in the context of global aging. Next, it discovers the travel needs and travel characteristics of older people and influencing factors based on the data from several sampling surveys. Then, it explores the developing trend in the transport field by drawing lessons from other aging countries or regions. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions for the construction of age-friendly transport in China. Chapter 1: Introduction. This chapter introduces the background of the study, expounds its significance and makes clear the key issues of the study. The content and framework are briefly introduced, as well as the methods and data for the book. Chapter 2: Aging: A Global Challenge. This chapter analyses the trend of world population growth and aging using the data from the UN, and it talks about different aspects of the challenges of population aging, especially in transport facilities and service. Chapter 3: Aging and Transport. The research progress on the changes of population age structure, travel needs of older people, travel behaviour of older people and factors influencing this behaviour, and progress with the problems of agefriendly transport are reviewed. By combing through related studies, we offer a basic understanding of the issue in this chapter. Chapter 4: Progress and Problems with Age-friendly Transport Policies in China. The existing policies and current problems relating to age-friendly society and agefriendly transport are examined in this chapter. They are assessed against a barrierfree environment, walking system, public transport system and traffic safety. Chapter 5: Aging in China. This chapter first describes the process and current characteristics of population aging in China by using data from statistical yearbooks. Second, it uncovers the factors in population aging and the social implications for China. Finally, a Leslie matrix equation is applied to make a projection model of

1.3 Method and Data

13

aging to predict the age structure in China by 2050. The result is compared with the projection of the UN. Chapter 6: Travel Needs of Older People. With the help of data from the China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) in 2014 and the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2018, the physiological and psychological characteristics of older people and their needs for participating in social activities and communication are understood. This chapter summarises the travel needs of older people and the requirements for age-friendly transport services. Moreover, the impacts of intelligent transport on older people are discussed as well. Chapter 7: Travel Behaviour of Older People. Taking Beijing as an example, daily travel characteristics of older people are identified, including travel frequency, travel purpose, travel mode, travel duration and departure time. By comparing them with other groups, we can understand the daily travel behaviour of older people better. The data from Beijing Household Travel Surveys (BHTS) in 2005, 2010 and 2014 are analysed in this chapter. Chapter 8: Factors in the Travel Behaviour of Older People. Based on the data from the BHTS in 2014, three logistic models and an ordinary least square (OLS) model are applied to discover the factors in travel intention, travel frequency, travel mode and travel duration. The explanatory factors of four aspects of personal attributes, household attributes, built environment and travel attributes are assessed. Chapter 9: Building Age-friendly Transport in China. Based on the analyses above, according to the needs and travel behaviour of older people and learning from international experience of age-friendly transport, this chapter puts forward a strategy for building China’s age-friendly transport, as suggestions for China to respond actively to population aging in the field of transport. Furthermore, a framework of assessment of age-friendly transport in China is provided. Chapter 10: Conclusion and Outlook. This chapter gives a summary of the purposes, key questions, contents and findings of this book, and how it fills in the blanks in current research. Lastly, this chapter talks about the outlook for age-friendly transport in China. Figure 1.1 summarises the research contents.

1.3 Method and Data 1.3.1 Methods 1.3.1.1

Qualitative Analysis

Qualitative analysis is applied in the study due to the complexity of the issue and the great wealth of experience in previous research. First, qualitative analysis helps to generalise the challenges of population aging and its implications in transport around the world (Chap. 2). Second, as an effective method of qualitative analysis, a literature review contributes to forming a primary understanding of the aging issue by combing

14

1 Introduction Key questions

China’s practice

Global background

Barrier-free environment Age-friendly transport policies in China Aging: A global challenge

Walking system Public transport system Travel safety

Aging in China

Travel needs of older people

Development and trend Impacts and factors Activities needs Physiological characteristics Frequency Purpose

Aging and transport Travel behavior and factors of older people

How is aging challenging transport system?

Individual Household

What are travel behaviour and travel needs of older people?

Mode Duration Time

Travel Environment

Barrier-free environment Walking system Building age-friendly Transport in China

Public transport system

How to build an age-friendly transport system?

Travel safety Age-friendly neighbourhood

Fig. 1.1 Research contents. Source The author

through the related studies in demographic changes of population aging, needs of and travel behaviour of older people and age-friendly transport (Chap. 3). Meanwhile, the methods adopted and the theories produced by previous research provide the scientific foundation and lead the direction for this study. Third, qualitative analysis is helpful in concluding the progress and problems with age-friendly transport policies in China (Chap. 4), by collecting, analysing, and summarising policies to deal with population aging and transport in China. Next, with the combination of previous research foundations and detailed daily observation of China’s older people, factors and impacts of China’s aging (Chap. 5), the travel needs of older people (Chap. 6) and the travel behaviour of older people (Chap. 7) are illustrated. Last, with the experience of earlier aging regions and the conclusions of the chapters above, suggestions on building age-friendly transport system in China are given in Chap. 9.

1.3.1.2

Quantitative Analysis

By using quantitative analysis, which allows one to draw conclusions of from large data samples, this book reveals the process of population aging and travel needs, travel behaviour and related factors for older people. First, global statistics during several decades are used to present the developing process and status of world population growth and aging, forming a global demographic background (Chap. 2). Second,

1.3 Method and Data

15

China’s statistics depict the development of population aging in China (Chap. 5). Furthermore, a Leslie matrix equation is applied to make a projection model to predict the age structure and aging trend in China by 2050. Third, general characteristics and changing trends of travel needs and travel behaviours are discovered by descriptive statistics from various sampling survey data (Chaps. 6 and 7). Different regression models are used in the analysis of influencing factors of travel behaviour for older people (Chap. 8). For travel frquency, a 2-level binary logistic regression model is applied to uncover the factors in whether older people travelled on the surveyed day, and an ordinal regression model is used to determine the factors in travel frequency. For travel pattern, a multinomial logit model helps to identify the factors in travel mode, while an OLS regression model works for travel duration.

1.3.1.3

Comparative Analysis

Comparative analysis helps us to see characteristics, understand the nature of issues and solve problems by comparing two or more objects to recognise the similarities and distinguish the differences. First, comparing the proportion of older people among different regions (Chaps. 2 and 5) helps to show the general pattern of global aging and especially to identify how far and how quickly China’s aging is developing given the international cases. Second, comparing older people with other groups can better explain the unique travel needs and travel behaviour of older people (Chaps. 6 and 7), and provide better support for the construction of age-friendly transport. Furthermore, changes in older people’s travel behaviour are discovered by comparing travel characteristics among data from 2005, 2010 and 2014. Last, by comparing the status of population aging and the development of age-friendly transport in China with those in other regions, China’s features and trends of population aging and insufficiency of age-friendly transport are made clearer (Chap. 9). For example, Japan, with a similar cultural background and customs to China, took only 26 years, much faster than any other developed countries, to raise its percentage of older people from 7 to 14%, and China was projected to do the same (Kinsella & Phillips, 2005). It is believed that China could learn something from Japan’s abundant experience in responding to population aging. In this way, suggestions for building age-friendly transport in China may come from drawing lessons from international practices.

1.3.1.4

Case Study

Taking a case study in a typical region helps to identify the main features of China. Due to the vast territory and large population of China and a lack of a reliable nationwide travel survey of older people, it is difficult to analyse the travel behaviour and factors for older people in the whole country. Therefore, taking a city as a case is considered to be better for the study. Beijing, as the capital and one of the largest cities in China, is representative. Identifying the travel characteristics of Beijing’s older people is meaningful for knowing the travel behaviour of China’s older people

16

1 Introduction

and building age-friendly transport in China. Meanwhile, similar to the national average level, the percentage of older people in Beijing was 13.3% with nearly 3 million people aged 65 or above in 2020. This makes it reliable to take Beijing as the case for the aging issue. More importantly, Beijing has carried out authoritative and comprehensive travel surveys on several occasions, and the results are available to be applied in this study. Therefore, this study takes Beijing as an example to determine the pattern of travel behaviour of older people in China (Chaps. 7 and 8), providing a foundation for building age-friendly transport.

1.3.2 Data 1.3.2.1

China’s Statistical Yearbook

In Chap. 5, data from the China Statistical Yearbook and the China Population and Employment Statistical Yearbook for relevant years reveal the change in China’s age structure over the years, the current characteristics and changing trend of aging, and the development trend of aging, and they make a projection for China’s aging level by 2050.

1.3.2.2

International Statistics

In Chap. 2, data on global population age structure released by the United Nations are used to determine the aging level of China among the countries or regions of the world. The features of China’s aging are identified by comparing it with other regions. In Chap. 5, the projection of China’s age structure by 2100 from the World Population Prospects 2019 published by the UN is taken as a tool to assess the trend of China’s population aging in the future.

1.3.2.3

Special Survey for Older People

In Chap. 5, data from the CFPS in 2018 are used to discover the difference in household consumption expenditure and usage of mobile phone and mobile Internet between older people and younger people. In Chap. 6, the travel needs of older people, data from CLASS in 2014 and from CHARLS in 2018 are adopted to identify the physiological and psychological characteristics of older people that differ from other groups, and to uncover their transport needs for activities and communication. CFPS is a nationwide project of the Institute of Social Science Survey at Peking University in China. It works to show changes in different dimensions, such as society, economy, population, to provide a database for academic research and public policy

1.3 Method and Data Table 1.1 Distribution of individual samples in CFPS (2018) selected for this study

17 Frequency

Percentage

Age