Ocean Management in Global Change : Proceedings of the Conference on Ocean Management in Global Change, Genoa, 22-26 June 1992 9780203213636, 9780203291528, 9781851668687, 0203213637, 1851668683, 0203270452

Table of contents :
BOOK COVER......Page 1
HALF-TITLE......Page 2
TITLE......Page 4
COPYRIGHT......Page 5
FOREWORD......Page 6
PREFACE......Page 8
CONTENTS......Page 10
INTRODUCTION......Page 13
THE CONCEPTUAL INHERITANCE......Page 15
PAST TECHNOLOGICAL INFLUENCES......Page 16
CULTURAL PERCEPTIONS......Page 18
BASIS OF PRESENT OCEAN MANAGEMENT POLICIES......Page 19
1950/1960......Page 20
1960/1970......Page 21
1970/1980......Page 22
1980/1990......Page 23
CONCLUSIONS......Page 25
REFERENCES......Page 26
THEORY OF OCEAN MANAGEMENT......Page 29
A DEVELOPMENT OF IDEAS......Page 30
THE STATE OF THE ART......Page 34
THEORY AND GLOBAL CHANGE......Page 37
THEORY AND PRACTICAL MANAGEMENT......Page 40
CONCLUSION......Page 42
REFERENCES......Page 43
OCEAN MANAGEMENT IN PRACTICE......Page 48
INTEGRATED OCEAN MANAGEMENT?......Page 49
THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA MOVING TOWARDS OR BEYOND INTEGRATED OCEAN MANAGEMENT?......Page 50
Comprehensiveness......Page 52
Coherence......Page 53
Cost-effectiveness......Page 54
Ocean Management for the Mediterranean Sea......Page 56
The Netherlands’ North Sea policy (22)......Page 57
International efforts for the North Sea......Page 59
MOVING TO THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN......Page 60
REFERENCES......Page 61
INTRODUCTION......Page 64
CHANGES IN SEA LEVEL......Page 66
Regional Variations......Page 68
Physical Effects of Sea-Level Rise......Page 69
Historical Sea-Level Rise......Page 72
Human Influences......Page 73
THE LOUISIANA EXPERIENCE......Page 74
ESTIMATES OF FUTURE MEAN SEA-LEVEL RISE......Page 77
IMPLICATIONS FOR COASTAL-ZONE PLANNING......Page 79
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS......Page 80
REFERENCES......Page 83
INTRODUCTION......Page 86
Changes in climatic factors......Page 87
The Benguella current......Page 89
El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)......Page 91
Succession of processes in ENSO......Page 96
The case of the Norwegian and Greenland Seas......Page 97
A case of combined investigations in the North Atlantic......Page 99
CONCLUSION......Page 100
REFERENCES......Page 101
INTRODUCTION......Page 103
EXISTING CONDITION OF CORAL REEFS......Page 105
EFFECTS OF A RISING SEA LEVEL ON CORAL REEFS......Page 106
EFFECTS OF A RISING SEA LEVEL ON REEF ISLANDS......Page 111
CONCLUSIONS......Page 112
REFERENCES......Page 113
INTRODUCTION......Page 116
The consciousness of the oceanic change......Page 117
Before they can be used, oceans have to be explored, charted and surveyed......Page 119
Facts on geophysics.......Page 121
Sciences and management: the exploitation of mineral resources......Page 122
The need of a keen knowledge......Page 124
Sea level changes......Page 125
Glaciology: a science for the record of past periods......Page 126
The carbon cycle......Page 127
The numerous problems of coastal and marine pollution......Page 128
Fishing: a privileged field for marine biology......Page 130
Maritime transport economy......Page 131
Science and management......Page 133
REFERENCES......Page 134
THE OCEAN CHALLENGE......Page 135
OCEANOGRAPHY FROM SPACE......Page 138
REMOTELY SENSED DATA IN OCEANOGRAPHY......Page 139
THE NEAR FUTURE OF REMOTE SENSING APPLICATIONS IN MARINE SCIENCE......Page 141
REMOTE SENSING SUPPORT TO COASTAL AND OCEAN MANAGEMENT......Page 144
BIBLIOGRAPHY OF REFERENCE......Page 146
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 147
Subject requirements......Page 148
Technical Requirements......Page 149
Administrative requirements......Page 150
3. EXISTING SYSTEMS......Page 151
Primary data gathering programmes and databases......Page 152
Secondary data compilations......Page 153
Data and information dissemination......Page 155
4. DATA PROCESSING: GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION ANALYSIS......Page 157
Applications to marine management tasks......Page 158
5. MANAGEMENT ISSUES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF OCEAN INFORMATION......Page 159
Coordination of data collection......Page 160
Standardisation......Page 161
Data and information ownership issues......Page 162
Information management......Page 163
6. CONCLUSION......Page 164
REFERENCES......Page 165
INTRODUCTION......Page 169
I. THE EVOLUTION OF MARINE AFFAIRS AND ITS IMPACT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARINE POLICIES......Page 170
The Closing of an Era: The 1950s......Page 171
The Pressure for Change: The 1960s......Page 172
The Emergence of an Integrated Approach to Ocean Development: The 1970s......Page 173
The Challenge of Implementation: The 1980s and Beyond......Page 176
II. THE FORMULATION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF AN INTEGRATED NATIONAL MARINE POLICY: PROBLEMS AND CONSTRAINTS......Page 177
Traditional Ocean Policy Systems: Structural Problems......Page 178
Traditional Ocean Policy Systems: Procedural Problems......Page 180
III. THE DECADE OF THE 1990s: TOWARD AN INTEGRATED MARINE POLICY......Page 181
Strengthening the institutional framework for integrated marine policy......Page 182
Building new management systems, and the institutional capacity for the implementation of a national marine policy......Page 183
CONCLUSIONS......Page 184
REFERENCES......Page 185
INTRODUCTION......Page 189
COASTAL MANAGEMENT......Page 191
OCEAN MANAGEMENT......Page 195
TOWARDS A COMPREHENSIVE MANAGEMENT SCHEME?......Page 197
REFERENCES......Page 200
INTRODUCTION......Page 202
SECTION 1 PLURALISM IN THE U.S.: THE POLITICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL SETTING FOR NATIONAL OCEAN POLICY......Page 204
SECTION 2 PUTTING THE KEY ELEMENTS IN PLACE: NATIONAL OCEAN POLICY MAKING BETWEEN 1966 AND 1988......Page 208
SECTION 3 FRAGMENTED POLICIES CONFRONT AN INTEGRATED OCEAN SYSTEM: PROBLEMS IN IMPLEMENTATION......Page 213
SECTION 4 DRAWING SOME CONCLUSIONS AND LOOKING AHEAD......Page 217
REFERENCES......Page 222
INTRODUCTION......Page 223
INTERNAL WATERS......Page 224
TERRITORIAL SEA......Page 226
STRAITS USED FOR INTERNATIONAL NAVIGATION......Page 227
ARCHIPELAGIC WATERS......Page 228
EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONE......Page 230
Management of the Living Resources......Page 231
Artificial Islands, Installations and Structures.......Page 235
Conduct of Marine Scientific Research.......Page 236
Protection and Preservation of the Marine Environment.......Page 237
CONTINENTAL SHELF......Page 239
CONCLUSIONS......Page 241
REFERENCES......Page 242
DEFINITIONS AND INTRODUCTION......Page 244
BOUNDARIES DEFINING MARITIME SPACES......Page 247
MANAGEMENT PROBLEMS CREATED BY BOUNDARIES......Page 249
BOUNDARIES AS MANAGEMENT TOOLS......Page 254
CONCLUSION......Page 257
REFERENCES......Page 259
THE COMMUNITY FISHERIES POLICY......Page 261
A REVIEW OF DISPUTED MARITIME AREAS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA......Page 267
INTRODUCTION......Page 297
DEPICTING MARINE CONFLICTS......Page 298
Conflicts Among Government Agencies......Page 299
Conflicts Vary According to Location......Page 300
The Range of Impacts that Can Occur as a Result of Conflicts May Go Beyond Standard Physical and Economic Variables......Page 302
Costs and Benefits of Conflicts......Page 303
Sources of Conflicts and Tractability of Conflicts......Page 305
ADDRESSING MULTIPLE USE OCEAN CONFLICTS......Page 309
TOWARD A COMPARATIVE RESEARCH STRATEGY......Page 314
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......Page 317
REFERENCES......Page 318
INTRODUCTION TO ORIGINS OF CONFLICTS CONCERNING NORTH SEA ACTIVITIES AND THE INSTITUTIONAL RESPONSE......Page 321
CONFLICTING USES AND INTERESTS IN THE NORTH SEA TODAY......Page 325
AVAILABLE MACHINERY FOR SETTLING DISPUTES......Page 326
International Bodies available for North Sea Conflict Resolution......Page 327
Regional Bodies......Page 329
CONCLUSIONS......Page 336
INTRODUCTION......Page 341
THE CHALLENGES FOR THE 1990s......Page 343
The Scientific Agenda......Page 344
What analogies can be drawn for managing the far more numerous activities affecting the oceans in a manner that gives marine environmental protection its due?......Page 346
Defining Objectives and Priorities......Page 349
The Means......Page 353
CONCLUSION......Page 356
REFERENCES......Page 357
INTRODUCTION......Page 358
THE REGIONAL SEAS PROGRAMME......Page 361
The Regional Seas Action Plans......Page 362
The Regional Seas Conventions......Page 364
Institutional and Financial Arrangements......Page 365
Regional Specificities......Page 366
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT......Page 368
REFERENCES......Page 373
INTRODUCTION......Page 375
SPECIAL AREAS......Page 378
PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE SEA AREAS......Page 383
Identification of the Great Barrier Reef region as a particularly sensitive area......Page 384
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE......Page 388
Special areas......Page 389
Particularly sensitive areas......Page 390
REFERENCES......Page 391
OCEAN FISHERIES MANAGEMENT THE FAO PROGRAMME......Page 393
LIST OF ABREVIATIONS USED IN THE TEXT......Page 394
1. INTRODUCTION......Page 395
The FAO Mandate......Page 397
Structure of the Department......Page 398
3.1 RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT: 1945–58......Page 400
The international context......Page 401
The work of FAO......Page 402
International context......Page 404
The work of FAO......Page 406
International context......Page 409
The work of FAO......Page 410
3.4. TOWARDS GLOBAL CONCERNS: 1983–92......Page 414
International context......Page 415
The work of FAO......Page 416
Buying now the future benefits......Page 421
The information gap......Page 422
High seas management and “creeping jurisdiction”......Page 423
Non-fishery users and public opinion......Page 424
Precautionary approaches and the burden of proof......Page 426
The allocation and the institutional issue......Page 428
5. CONCLUSIONS......Page 429
7. REFERENCES......Page 432
INTRODUCTION......Page 440
FACTS, DATA AND METHODOLOGY......Page 441
Maritime progress......Page 442
Industrial re-localization......Page 444
Changing types of innovations......Page 445
Competition among regions......Page 446
Planning and decentralization of production......Page 447
Territorial decentralization......Page 448
Evolution of industrial maritime zones......Page 449
THREE PERIODS OF A SEMI-SECULAR CYCLE?......Page 450
The hypothesis of a new Kondratiev cycle......Page 451
Possible types of innovations......Page 452
New horizons for maritime activities......Page 453
REFERENCES......Page 454
INTRODUCTION......Page 458
Geography......Page 459
Population......Page 460
Penaeus Shrimp and their exploitation......Page 461
Coastline and tourism......Page 465
Other resources and activities......Page 466
LEGAL AND INSTITUTIONAL ASPECTS OF COASTAL MANAGEMENT......Page 467
KEY ISSUES FOR COASTAL MANAGEMENT......Page 468
BUILDING THE FRAMEWORK FOR COASTAL MANAGEMENT......Page 469
A PROPOSAL FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF COASTAL RESOURCES......Page 471
STRUCTURE AND STRATEGY OF PMRC......Page 472
PLANNING IN THE ZEMS......Page 473
PLANS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF THE COASTAL RESOURCES OF THE ZEMS......Page 475
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ZEM PLANS......Page 477
REFERENCES......Page 479
COASTAL MANAGEMENT IN CHINA......Page 481
INTRODUCTION......Page 482
THE DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL MANAGEMENT......Page 484
PROBLEMS AND PERSPECTIVES......Page 488
REFERENCES......Page 491
SMALL ISLAND STATES AND HUGE MARITIME ZONES: MANAGEMENT TASKS IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC......Page 492
References:......Page 502
INTRODUCTION......Page 505
ORIGINS OF DECLINE......Page 508
PROBLEMS AND SOLUTIONS: THE MIXED-USE APPROACH......Page 510
HOUSING ON THE WATERFRONT......Page 513
ECONOMIC IMPACT......Page 517
RE-INTEGRATION WITH THE CITY......Page 519
NEW FORMS OF REDUNDANT SPACE: TOWARDS RE-USE FOR PORT FUNCTIONS?......Page 523
CITYPORTS AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT......Page 524
CONCLUSION......Page 525
REFERENCES......Page 526
INTRODUCTION......Page 529
ESTUARIES IN DYNAMIC CHANGE......Page 531
Human System......Page 532
Environmental Quality......Page 533
Food Production......Page 535
Sea-Level Rise......Page 539
MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS......Page 541
REFERENCES......Page 543
INTRODUCTION......Page 547
2.1—Definition of the concept of coastal zone......Page 548
3.1.2 The dissolved organic matter component......Page 549
3.1.3.1 The phytoplankton component......Page 550
3.1.4.1—The zooplankton component......Page 551
3.1.4.2—The zoobenthos component......Page 553
4—MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES OF THE LAGOONS......Page 554
4.1—Inventory the biological resources of the lagoons......Page 555
4.2—Study of the ecological factors of the marine biodiversity......Page 556
4.3.1—Demogrphic component......Page 557
4.3.2.1—Socio-economic activity......Page 558
4.3.2.6—Public interest......Page 559
4.3.2.10—Impact study......Page 561
6—CONCLUSION......Page 562
REFERENCES......Page 563
INTRODUCTION......Page 565
Variations in Ocean Management Programs......Page 567
Some Case Studies of Regional Arrangements......Page 570
Some Thoughts on Comprehensive Management......Page 571
REFERENCES......Page 572
INTRODUCTION......Page 574
THE ARCTIC OCEAN: ITS PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS......Page 576
Bathymetry and Morphology......Page 577
Climatology......Page 579
Oceanography......Page 581
Sea Ice......Page 582
THE NATURE AND DISTRIBUTION OF ARCTIC OCEAN RESOURCES......Page 586
Renewable Resources......Page 587
Non-Renewable Resources......Page 588
TECHNOLOGY AND EXPLOITATION OF ARCTIC OCEAN RESOURCES......Page 590
Transportation......Page 591
Mineral Extraction Technologies......Page 593
THE IMPACT OF ARCTIC OCEAN DEVELOPMENT ON THE ENVIRONMENT......Page 595
Localized Impacts......Page 596
Impacts Resulting from Non-Arctic Activities......Page 597
MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN......Page 599
CONCLUSIONS......Page 602
REFERENCES......Page 603
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS......Page 606
INTRODUCTION......Page 608
II. MANAGEMENT OF WHALING IN THE SOUTHERN OCEAN AS PART OF GLOBAL MANAGEMENT.......Page 610
III. MANAGEMENT UNDER THE ANTARCTIC TREATY SYSTEM.......Page 613
a) SEALING.......Page 614
b) FISHERIES.......Page 616
2. PROTECTION OF MARINE ENVIRONMENT.......Page 620
3. OTHER FIELDS IN THE MANAGEMENT OF THE OCEAN.......Page 622
IV. CONCLUSIONS.......Page 623
REFERENCES......Page 625
The Problem Defined......Page 628
What is Integrated National Ocean Policy?......Page 630
When and How Should We Seek to Integrate National Ocean Policy?......Page 631
SEEKING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ELEMENTS OF CHANGE: COMPARING NATIONAL OCEAN POLICY DECISION SYSTEMS......Page 632
Fisheries......Page 636
Outer Continental Shelf Oil and Gas......Page 641
Shipping......Page 644
Results of the Comparative Evaluation......Page 645
THE ANALYSIS OF MULTIPLE USE CONFLICTS AS A CRITICAL ELEMENT OF CHANGE IN FORGING INTEGRATED NATIONAL OCEAN POLICY......Page 647
CONCLUSION......Page 651
REFERENCES......Page 652
INDEX OF CONTRIBUTORS......Page 656

Citation preview

OCEAN MANAGEMENT IN GLOBAL CHANGE

To commemorate the Quincentenary of the Discovery of the Americas the Twentieth Anniversary of the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment the Tenth Anniversary of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea

Published with the collaboration of ENTE COLOMBO ’92, Genoa, Italy

OCEAN MANAGEMENT IN GLOBAL CHANGE Edited by

PAOLO FABBRI University of Bologna, Italy

ELSEVIER APPLIED SCIENCE London and New York 1992

ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBLISHERS LTD Crown House, Linton Road, Barking, Essex IG11 8JU, England This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2005. “To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk.” WITH 19 TABLES AND 72 ILLUSTRATIONS © 1992 ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBLISHERS LTD CIP Catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN 0-203-21363-7 Master e-book ISBN

ISBN 0-203-27045-2 (Adobe eReader Format) ISBN 1-85166-868-3 (Print Edition) Library of Congress CIP data applied for No responsibility is assumed by the Publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions or ideas contained in the material herein. Special regulations for readers in the USA This publication has been registered with the Copyright Clearance Center Inc. (CCC), Salem, Massachusetts. Information can be obtained from the CCC about conditions under which photocopies of parts of this publication may be made in the USA. All other copyright questions, including photocopying outside the USA, should be referred to the publisher. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher.

FOREWORD

The Celebrations of the Quincentenary of the Discovery of the Americas and their Scientific Events Ente Colombo ’92 was created with the task of organizing the Celebrations of the Quincentenary of the Discovery of the Americas. This body decided on an International Specialized Exhibition, ‘Christopher Columbus: Ships and the Sea’, to be flanked by a series of scientific events at a sufficiently distinguished level to be able to discuss, authoritatively, the evolution of sea uses and the consequent need to protect the marine environment. It was decided to programme these events during the central part of the Celebrations and so, during the week entitled ‘Man and the Sea’, three international conferences on ocean management, the law of the sea (annual Conference of the Law of the Sea Institute) and legal maritime subjects (conference of Unidroit and Comité Maritime International) respectively are to be held in Genoa. The event on ocean management was organized by Ente Colombo ’92 with the co-operation of the United Nations Office for Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea and was devoted to Ocean Management in Global Change. Its aim is to deal with the evolution of the objectives and methodologies of coastal and ocean management, with special emphasis on the relationships between resource development and environmental protection and, as a result, establishing close topical links with the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (Rio de Janeiro, June 1992).

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In order to give the greatest opportunities for scientific communication and discussion at this Conference, two books have been published. This present volume contains the lectures presented at the Conference; Sea Management: A Theoretical Approach, written by Adalberto Vallega, the scientific co-ordinator of the Conference, deals with the theoretical background and practical implications of coastal and ocean management. On behalf of Ente Colombo ’92 I express my gratitude to the UN Office for Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea, as well as to all those who have offered their co-operation and moral support to the Conference, in the fervent hope that it will contribute to the improvement of sea resource development and environmental protection. ROMANO MERLO Mayor of Genoa President, Ente Colombo ’92

PREFACE

The International Conference on Ocean Management in Global Change The evolution of coastal and ocean management is worth considering in the light of (i) the principles of environmental protection established by the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment (Stockholm, 1972) and the subsequent action developed by the United Nations and its organizations, (ii) the legal frameworks provided by the United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea (1982), (iii) the recently implemented efforts to encourage multidisciplinary approaches to environmental change and, finally, (iv) the impetus given by the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (1992) to the implementation of the rationale in resource use and environmental management. This background supports both the subject area and the whole approach to be developed by the International Conference on Ocean Management in Global Change (Genoa, 22–26 June 1992), the main objectives of which are (i) to examine present and expected trends in coastal and ocean resource use, (ii) to evaluate the state of the art and the expected evolution in theory and practice of management and (iii) to discuss scientific and technological developments and their impacts on management. On this basis it was thought that the Conference should have to produce (i) general views of the evolution of coastal and ocean management with the aim of putting into evidence their theoretical background and methodologies, as well as drafting short- and medium-term prospects, and, in this context, (ii) should deal with crucial issues, such as the relationships between sea resource development and environmental protection, taking

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into account (iii) relevant case studies and (iv) coastal and ocean areas worthy of special attention. The Conference benefits from co-operation between scientists from various disciplines—such as oceanography, ecology, law, economics, geography—and distinguished experts in coastal and ocean management. Their lectures are collected in this book, edited by Paolo Fabbri, of the University of Bologna, Italy. The lectures are concerned with the history, theory, practice and the expected evolution of coastal and ocean management, the physical changes in oceans and the subsequent research undertaken, key marine policy problems and the role of national jurisdictional belts, conflict management and environmental protection and preservation, the role of coastal and ocean management for development purposes, the specific features of the management of special coastal (waterfronts, estuaries and lagoons) and ocean (enclosed and semi-enclosed seas, polar seas) areas. This framework was conceived with the United Nations Office for Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea, in the context of which the objectives of the Conference and their background, as well as the preliminary descriptions of sessions and lectures, were extensively discussed and formulated. We are very grateful to the members of the UN Office—especially to Moritaka Hayashi and Stella Maris Vallejo—for the encouraging atmosphere they created for scheduling this initiative and the help they have given towards its scientific conduct. Gratitude is also expressed to Ente Colombo ’92, which decided to give such a strong impetus to the scientific events supporting the Celebrations of the Quincentenary of the Discovery of the Americas, and to Alberto Bemporad, the Commissioner General of the International Specialized Exhibition ‘Christopher Columbus: Ships and the Sea’. Finally, acknowledgements are expressed to Paolo Fabbri, the editor of the volume, to the Scientific Organizing Committee of the Conference composed of Francesco Bandarin, Giuliano Fierro, Maria Giuseppina Lucia and Giovanni Rildolfi, as well as to the staff of the Technical Scientific Committee, constituted by Elisabetta Dettori and Paola Schiavo. ADALBERTO VALLEGA Scientific Co-ordinator International Conference on Ocean Management in Global Change GIORGIO DORIA Co-ordinator Technical Scientific Committee Ente Colombo ’92

CONTENTS

Foreword Preface History of Ocean Management Alastair D.Couper Theory of Ocean Management Hance D.Smith Ocean Management in Practice Gerard Peet Sea-Level Rise and its Implications in Coastal Planning and Management Dallas L.Peck and S.Jeffress Williams Impact of Ocean Circulation on Regional and Global Change André Guilcher The Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Coral Reefs and Reef Islands Eric C.F.Bird Ocean Sciences and Management André Vigarié Remote Sensing in Ocean Management Renato Herz Information and Data Processing for Ocean Management Adam Cole-King and Chandra S.Lalwani Integrated Marine Policies: Goals and Constraints Stella Maris A.Vallejo From Coastal to Ocean Management: Policies and Planning Issues Paolo Fabbri National Ocean Policy in the United States: Less than the Sum of its Parts Robert W.Knecht

v vii 1 17 36 52

74 91 104 123 135 157 177

190

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The Role of National Jurisdictional Zones in Ocean Management Moritaka Hayashi Boundaries and Ocean Management Victor Prescott The Community Fisheries Policy Daniel Vignes A Review of Disputed Maritime Areas in Southeast Asia Phiphat Tangsubkul Multiple Use Conflicts and their Resolution: Toward a Comparative Research Agenda Biliana Cicin-Sain Comparative Evaluation in Managing Conflicts: Lessons from the North Sea Experience Patricia Birnie

211

The Protection of the Marine Environment: A Key Policy Element Lee A.Kimball

329

The Protection and Development of the Marine Environment: UNEP’s Oceans and Coastal Areas Programme Stjepan Keckes

346

Special Areas and Particularly Sensitive Areas Jon Wonham Ocean Fisheries Management: The FAO Programme S.M.Garcia Seaport Management and Navigation Ugo Marchese Coastal Management in Ecuador Luis Arriaga M. Coastal Management in China Ying Wang Small Island States and Huge Maritime Zones: Management Tasks in the South Pacific Hanns Buchholz

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Urban Waterfront Management: Historical Patterns and Prospects D.A.Pinder and B.S.Hoyle

493

232 249 255 285

309

381 428 446 469 480

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Estuaries: Challenges for Coastal Management Norbert P.Psuty Complexity of Coastal Lagoons Management: An Overview S.Guillaume F.Zabi The Management of Enclosed and Semi-Enclosed Seas Lewis M.Alexander The Arctic Ocean H.Jesse Walker Management of the Southern Ocean Resources and Environment Juan Carlos M.Beltramino Future Challenges in Ocean Management: Towards Integrated National Ocean Policy Edward L.Miles

517

Index of Contributors

644

535 553 562 596

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HISTORY OF OCEAN MANAGEMENT ALASTAIR D.COUPER University of Wales, Cardiff

ABSTRACT Elements of present-day sea use management have evolved over a long period. Basic to these are the principles of freedom of the seas, open access to resources, and sectoral management. There is, however, a necessary corrective to this Euro-centric view when the relationships between people and the marine environment are examined in several other cultures. Open access in Western society has experienced more recent restrictions as resource scarcities have arisen and new technological capacities have increased. However, ocean management policies have continued within the spatial framework of freedom of the seas for fishing beyond national jurisdiction and the marine transport sector. The paper traces these aspects historically and also the emergence of new concepts, which have become progressively more multi-disciplinary as inter-sectoral problems have appeared. Similarly, United Nations global policies stand in constrast to the persistence of national sectoral management approaches. It is concluded that very recent developments have now created opportunities for more integrated ocean management to emerge. INTRODUCTION The concept of ocean management, in the sense of exercising some form of centralised control over multiple uses of a sea area, is a product of the late 20th Century. It emerged at a time when there was increased concern

2 OCEAN MANAGEMENT IN GLOBAL CHANGE

for the health of the oceans, a greater awareness of the need to allocate national rights over ocean space and resources, requirements to regulate human activities at sea, and the need to resolve inter-territorial conflicts. Unlike land use management, ocean management is complicated by the fluidity of the medium, its three-dimensional parameters, mobility of many resources and activities, the complexity of interacting ecosystems, and the lack of relevance of administrative boundaries to the natural environment. Ocean management is also bedeviled by inheritances from the past in custom, law (and lack of it), the perceptions of land-minded administrators, and by powerful global military interests. What may now be understood by ocean management, if current views are pulled together, is methodology through which sectoral activities (navigation, fishing, mining, dumping, etc.) and environmental quality in a sea area are considered as a whole, and their uses optimised in order to maximise net benefits to a nation, but without prejudicing local socioeconomic interests or jeopardising benefits to future generations. This must involve assessments, priorities, allocations and regulations. Overall optimisation of uses in this way is a difficult objective and, it may be asserted, perhaps an unattainable one. An alternative to this and to central management is simply sectoral management within national sea areas, with linking mechanisms capable of resolving inter-sectoral, social welfare, and inter-territorial conflicts as these appear. Whether a centralised management approach should, or can, be adopted, or merely ad-hoc approaches used, is still open to debate. What is generally agreed, is the need for a policy which has as its foundation the recognition that many activities at sea are inter-connected, and as sea uses increase conflicts arise. The requirement for policies based on the various degrees of functional integration in the marine environment was emphasised in the preamble to the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which…“recognises that the problems and opportunities of ocean space are closely inter-related and need to be considered as a whole” (1). In a subsequent report of the Secretary General it was stated: A fundamental requirement for the development and use of national off-shore marine resources is a national policy that establishes goals, objectives and priorities and lays down basic principles and criteria which provide guidance for the formulation of plans and programmes and a marine development strategy (2).

HISTORY OF OCEAN MANAGEMENT 3

It is not the purpose of this introductory paper to elaborate on these goals and the ways of achieving them. This will be done by subsequent contributions. What is intended here, is to consider how we reached the present levels of thinking, and to identify what concepts and practices have been inherited from the past in our current approaches to ocean management. THE CONCEPTUAL INHERITANCE Before multiple activities in sea areas can be managed, it is clearly necessary to establish who has the authority for making rules and setting priorities within a specified space, and what the law is with regard to resource ownership and access. In these respects, it is recalled here that some of the basic concepts which enter into present-day discussions and legislation are derived from much earlier periods. The most fundamental of these is the concept of freedom of the sea, and its related systems of coastal state and off-shore user rights. Attempts to control ocean space and the uses of the sea by maritime powers go back to at least Roman times(3). By far the most ambitious attempt, and never to be surpassed in its magnitude, was the action by Spain after the 1492 voyage which we are now commemorating. Following the report by Columbus of his explorations, Ferdinand and Isabella were able to secure a Papal Bull from Pope Alexander VI in 1493. This granted to Spain all discoveries lying to the West of a line drawn through a point 100 leagues from any of the Azores or Cape Verdes. Noone was to pass beyond this line, even for fishing, without permission of Spain under pain of excommunication. It should be said that the Marine Geographers Commission would not have awarded any prizes to the Pope for this piece of delimitation, since there is a difference of 8° of longitude between the extremes of the Azores and Cape Verde islands(4). The positional anomaly was rectified in the following year when Spain and Portugal signed the Treaty of Tordessilas establishing a new line 370 leagues West of the Cape Verdes. This delimitation included a section of what is now Brazil in the Portugese Eastern sector. The division of the world ocean by Spain and Portugal was studiously ignored by, amongst others, Henry VII of England who, in 1497, sent the Genoese captain, John Cabot, on his historic voyage north-westward from Bristol to North America. This was an important early lesson in geopolitics, indicating that national claims to sea areas could not be effective unless there was the naval capability to maintain them. Considering the emerging knowledge of the real size of the global ocean in

4 OCEAN MANAGEMENT IN GLOBAL CHANGE

the late 15th Century there was little possibility of comprehensive national controls over fishing or navigation, and this signified the de facto recognition of freedom of the high seas. These lessons and subsequent events may have influenced the formulation of the concept of freedom of the sea contained in the Grotius Mare Liberum in 1604, and ultimately its de Jure recognition. Grotius not only conceptualised the basic principles of high seas freedoms, but he also identified the rights of nations to exercise jurisdiction over a narrow belt of coastal waters which could be controlled and defended from the shore. In this respect, Clyde Sanger(5) reminds us that later in the early 18th Century Dutch lawyers elaborated further on these themes, and in the process differentiated between off-shore sovereignty and jurisdiction (trusteeship). They argued also over such issues as exclusive fishery zones and the principle of equidistance in delimiting boundaries between opposite coastal states. Freedom of the sea was challenged by the Englishman John Selden with his counter-advocacy of Mare Clausum in 1635. Selden’s arguments (apart from their obvious imperialism) contained a hint of the possibility of depletion of the living resources of the sea. He upheld therefore the right of England to exercise jurisdiction over “English” waters. Selden also, however, gave expression to the rights of innocent passage of ships in what was to become the territorial sea. He did so in more elegant language than that of the 1982 Convention, when he wrote: “The offices of humanitie require that entertainment bee given to strangers and that inoffensive passage bee not denied”(6). Many of the principles debated more than 300 years ago became the orthodoxies of attempts at managing the sea, with Grotius rather than Selden on the ascendancy until very recently. PAST TECHNOLOGICAL INFLUENCES When we consider the influences of technology on patterns of sea uses, it should be recalled that the levels of technology in shipping and fishing were relatively stable until the energy revolution of the early 19th Century. Technology until then did little to upset the continued adherence to high seas freedoms. Indeed, the development of submarine cables in the late 1860’s reinforced the freedom of the high seas by establishing the right to lay cables, and the ‘Challenger’ expedition in the 1870’s did likewise for

HISTORY OF OCEAN MANAGEMENT 5

research, and incidentally retrieved the first manganese nodules from the deep sea bed. It was the introduction of steam to the fishing industry in the late 19th Century which marked the beginning of concern over freedom to fish and the common property characteristic of fish stocks. The steam trawler proved a magnificent ship for the job of catching large quantities of fish in waters distant from its home port. By the first decade of the 20th Century, this had given rise to disputes over fishing between, amongst others, Britain, Denmark and Iceland; and the need for stock assessments in the open ocean. The International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) was founded at this time made up of representatives from eighteen countries in the North Atlantic region. Before this period, some whale stocks were already under greater pressures than fish in the high seas. They had been hunted for their oil since at least the 12th Century and by the early 18th Century there were land-stations as far North as Spitzbergen for the Arctic whale. Whalers were soon pursuing the sperm whale throughout the Pacific Ocean, and the Antarctic whaling flourished with the introduction of the explosive harpoon and mechanised gun. For a brief period the whale had some respite with the development of mineral oil as an alternative basis for lighting. In 1885, the first oil tanker came into operation on the world sea lanes, and in 1898 the oil industry moved off-shore in the Gulf of Mexico to depths of 10 metres. For the whale, the respite brought by mineral oil production was only minimal, for in the 1900’s other technological changes brought renewed demand for whale oil for the making of soap and margarine. Whaling illustrates even more than fishing, the problems of open access and the common property nature of marine resources. The companies and whalers engaged in the industry must have known they were destroying the resource. In more recent times, Earling Naess, a Norwegian shipowner who made part of his fortune from whaling, consoled himself to the destruction of the whale with the thought, that… “If I desisted somebody else would have taken my place”(7), which is the classical expression of the ‘tragedy of the commons’. The power driven ship gave rise also to the first real concerns over intrasectoral conflict. The consequences of collisions between powerful cargo and passenger ships, which were concentrating in straits and port approaches in increasing numbers, required that rules for vessel behaviour at sea had to be introduced. There was some semblance of sailing instructions even in the 17th Century, this included the rule that “no captain shall take the wind of an admiral”, and in the 18th Century a

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“Rule of the Road” for ships on different tacks existed. However, it was only in 1863 that comprehensive collision regulations were introduced by Britain to govern the use of sea space in order to avoid collisions, but it was not until 1910 that these could be said to have international effect(8). The turn of the century thus saw some attempts to manage conflicts within the sectors of fishing and of shipping, and to internationalise several of the procedures. Freedom of the sea, however, was still the underlying principle. CULTURAL PERCEPTIONS So far this paper has been peculiarly Euro centric in its perceptions, as though freedom of the seas and open access had emerged as universal concepts. This would be to ignore the wealth of knowledge and understanding of the wise use of ocean space held and practiced by communities in other parts of the world—many of whom had cultures with much higher dependencies on marine resources and more intimate social and religious links with the sea. Societies with possibly the closest relationships with the marine environment, (especially in the pre-European contact period), were those occupying small oceanic coral islands. Atoll and reef island communities are very dependent on the sea. They are often subject to natural disasters which deplete what little agriculture is possible with poor calcareous soils and variable rainfall. Geologically, oceanic low islands represent the upward growth of coral from submerged volcanoes, consequently beyond the living reefs the outer slopes plunge to vast depths. With no continental shelves and little nutrient run-off from tiny areas of land most food resources are confined to reef margins, passes, flats and lagoons. Offshore deep sea fish are in turn highly migratory and often seasonal in their availability. Island people readily recognised that the vital resources on which they depended were finite. Their communities survived by evolving rules of social behaviour, ethics, appropriate technologies, resource entitlements and distributional methods which maintained at least long-term balances between the people and the marine environment in a dynamic holistic ecosystem. One basic feature of many Pacific island societies was limited entry to a fishery. Individual villages had access rights, there was no concept of freedom of island waters, or of a common property resource. In many places these indigeneous reef and lagoon tenure laws still exist. In Palau, Johannes has described community fishing rights as extending seawards to

HISTORY OF OCEAN MANAGEMENT 7

as far as where the islands are barely visible from a canoe(9) and Lucas in 1990 encountered intricate coastal zone rights held by villages in Papua New Guinea(10). It was customary conservation procedures in parts of the Pacific to have selective temporary closures of sea space; prohibitions on the taking of certain species at specified times; taboos on eating some species types; restrictions on methods of catch to ensure the escape of breeding fish; and the targeting of specific fish amongst a multi-species stock. King (et al) describes how it is taboo in many Fijian villages to catch small sardines in shallows; the belief is the sardines attract the larger carnivorous fish into shallow water where they provide a more substantial catch. He goes on to say that this simple management measure is, in fact, quite sophisticated; fisheries regulations in developed countries are usually by contrast directed towards protecting the target species itself rather than its ecological relationships(11). These traditional management systems are frequently characterised by strong linkages between the social and natural environments. Local fishery disputes were often settled by village chiefs or elders, and temporary reallocations of fishery rights made. Lawson and Kwei describe similar systems in West Africa, where chief fishermen and elders settle disputes, impose fines and award damages(12). Not all indigenous sea management systems are of course useful, and many of the most valuable are lost or are in decay, destroyed primarily under the impact of introduced concepts and technology. Alexander has shown that this exchange impoverished several communities in southern Sri Lanka(13). UNESCO also notes in relation to the resource base, that… “attempts to replace such traditional resource systems with those based on higher technology and large fossil fuel flows often cause feedback loops to be lost, resulting in resource exploitation rather than resource management”(14). It is only relatively recently that these aspects have been appreciated in western countries. BASIS OF PRESENT OCEAN MANAGEMENT POLICIES It was the aftermath of the Second World War that saw greatly increased uses of the sea, and the claims by several coastal states to sovereignty over seaward resources as national property. Concern about energy supplies led to the Truman Proclamation of 1945. This extended rights to the resources of the sub-soil and seabed of the continental shelf beneath the high seas contiguous to the United

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States. The limits of exploitation were subsequently taken as the 200 metre isobath, although it was not until the 1950s that drill ships could work these depths. The sea enclosure movement followed soon after the United States declaration. In 1947 Chile, and shortly other Latin American countries, extended jurisdiction to 200 nm; but the only widely acknowledged curtailments of high seas rights at this time were related to international attempts to manage whaling activities and the establishment of regional fisheries commissions. This paper now summarises some of the principal events over the decades since the Truman Proclamation as a basis for understanding inheritances in present-day ocean use management policies. 1950/1960 The decade saw greatly increased catches of fish, as underfished stocks were exploited, and the stern trawler freezer factory vessel brought urban industry to sea. Several states unilaterally extended their jurisdiction over fishing to 12 nm. Also, in 1951, the ICJ upheld the claim by Norway to draw baselines between the outer islands of the coastal archipelego, establishing a precedent for future enclosures of archipelegos. This was also a time of growth in the world fleet of oil tankers, and increases in the size of the ships, as crude oil cargoes were carried to market oriented refineries in Europe and America. Tank washing took place on return voyages and the oily residue was discharged into the sea. In 1954, the Oilpol Convention was introduced which curtailed tankers from discharging into the sea within 50 miles of the coast, and prohibited this entirely in special areas. In 1958, the Intergovernmental Maritime Consultative Organisation (to become IMO) was finally established, and in that year the first Law of the Sea Conference was convened. This made several contributions; but neither a uniform breadth of the territorial sea, nor a satisfactory limit to the continental shelf emerged. Conceptually, there were major advances at this time in fishing management—including the work by Schaefer(15) and Beverton and Holt (16). These established the principle of maximum sustainable yield; while Gordon(17) was an advocate of maximum economic yield and a move towards closure of free access to marine resources. Ocean science also advanced in 1957 with the advent of satellites and the inauguration of the International Geophysical Year.

HISTORY OF OCEAN MANAGEMENT 9

1960/1970 UNCLOS II took place in 1960 but contributed only in minor ways to ocean management issues. By then, highly technically advanced vessels were fishing harder and longer to maintain catches. The oil industry was expanding in several offshore areas and in 1963, the seabed of the North Sea was divided between the bordering states. With the publication of the study by John Mero the deep seabed was also perceived as an area of profitable mining for manganese nodules, and although prospects were considerably exaggerated at the time new types of ocean mining vessels were designed. This likewise was a period of considerable conceptual contributions, much of which extended the biological thinking of the previous decade into wider dimensions in a more multi-disciplinary way. In 1962, Rachel Carson’s(18) ‘Silent Spring’ stimulated environmental debate and the inception of more NGOs. In 1965 the LSI was founded at Rhode Island, and bodies such as Pacem in Maribus also emerged internationally, especially after the speach by Arvid Pardo. In 1967, Pardo made his plea to the United Nations General Assembly for the application of the concept of the Common Heritage of Mankind to the resources of the seabed beyond national jurisdiction. Pardo argued for centralised management of much of the deep ocean, as against laissez faire, or piecemeal enclosure on the basis of technical superiority and defendable claims. During this period there appeared new schools of legal thinking going beyond ‘black letter law”. The work by Douglas Johnson(19) focused on biological realities and social criteria in fishing policy. In economics, Christy and Scott(20), amongst others, widened economic analysis beyond strict disciplinary boundaries to include biology and law, and Lewis Alexander(21) published his work ‘Offshore Geography of North Western Europe’. This presented in an integrated way the political and economic problems of delimitation and control. Finally, in what was a stimulating intellectual time, Hardin’s(22) ‘Tragedy of the Commons’ appeared, demonstrating the inevitable outcome of permitting open access to a common property resource. These works were well ahead of policy making at national and international levels, and they were crossing the boundaries of established disciplines into integrated approaches. It was the pollution from the ‘Torrey Canyon’ in 1967 which resulted in the greatest public and political pressures, and triggered legislative changes. The resulting 1969 Intervention Convention gave more power to coastal states over vessels on the high seas which were causing pollution. Similarly,

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the 1970 unilaterally declared “Arctic Waters Pollution Act”, which applied to ships within 100 nm of the Canadian Arctic coast, represented action by a coastal state in protection of the environment. 1970/1980 In the early years of this decade divisions between the coastal states and the maritime states became more pronounced with respect to control over resources. In 1972, Iceland extended national fishery limits to 50 nm, and in the same year, Kenya proposed a 200 nm entitlement for coastal states which would give sovereign rights over all economic resources. The 1972 Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment(23) was an important event, as was the subsequent creation of UNEP and its regional seas programmes. At this time also, the London Dumping Convention was introduced by IMO. The 1970’s Middle East crises had widespread effects. This brought a 200% increase in crude oil prices, and offshore oil development began to take place in waters of over 3000 metres. New drillships were followed by enormous fixed platforms. These were often fabricated in remote coastal areas. The offshore oil industry now commanded vast capital resources. Rigs, platforms, service and support vessels all competed for space at sea and in ports. The impact was considerable and the conflicting aspects difficult to manage with the high priorities being given to oil. The oil crises had also given impetus to the building of tankers of 250 000 DWT and above for the Cape route; and even more oil, possibly amounting to over 1 million tons per annum, was being discharged into the sea through normal ship operations. The IMO MARPOL Convention of 1973 was aimed at eliminating this by technological changes. The ‘Amoco Cadiz’ grounding off the Breton coast in 1978 brought about massive pollution and an immediate further extension of coastal state controls, when the French authorities required loaded tankers to report their positions to France and prohibited them from coming within 7 miles of the coast unless destined for a French port, and then only in designated tanker channels. These events took place during the negotiations of UNCLOS III which had opened in 1973. They influenced the proceedings, especially in relation to pollution of the sea and the management of marine traffic; although strategic considerations were successful in keeping wellestablished freedoms of navigation.

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1980/1990 The early years of this decade was a period of implementation and consolidation of several ocean management measures, although still primarily on a sectoral basis. The conclusion of UNCLOS III in 1982, although not ratified, legitimised the global extensions of the territorial sea to 12 nm, the 200 nm EEZ, and the jurisdiction over continental margins to as far as 350 nm for wide margin states. The seaward entitlements reduced high seas space by 35%, and brought 90% of commercial fisheries under the sovereignty of coastal states; while the continental margin extensions gave coastal states jurisdiction over almost all offshore hydro-carbon resources and most minerals, with the exception of those of the deep seabed. The 1982 Convention continued to confirm freedom of the high seas for fishing, and freedom of navigation on the high seas and within EEZs. The Convention also laid down what was regarded as being non-innocent passage in the territorial sea. Non-innocence it made clear, related to the behaviour of ships, and not (by implication) to their structural condition, manning, or the nature of the cargoes (or weapons) they carried. In these respects, the Convention followed the orthodoxies of navigational primacy. On the other hand, the resources of the deep seabed were considered out-with the freedom of the seas and open access. They were declared the common heritage of mankind, with guidelines as to how they were to be managed under an International Seabed Authority. In 1982 the principles of port state control, recognised by UNCLOS III, were applied in a Memorandum of Understanding adopted by fourteen countries in North West Europe. The principles were subsequently harmonised with several other states. The objective of the memorandum was to apply the terms of international conventions to all vessels in the memorandum ports, and thus help rid the seas of substandard ships which posed a threat to safety of life and the marine environment. In the early 1980’s, there was a more widespread adoption of traffic separation schemes, archipelegic sea lanes and other routing requirements to reduce accidents through the management of marine space. The early 1980s also saw more resolute management of marine resources under the International Whaling Commission. This was accomplished through increased activities of non-whaling states in the Commission—which ensured the success of the vote for a moratorium on whaling. The same success was achieved with the London Dumping Convention, which through greater participation of states which were not engaged in dumping at sea, was able to extend restrictions to the ocean

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disposal of radioactive waste. The LDC meeting may have been the first application of the ‘precautionary principle’ to ocean management. This required that promoters had to prove beforehand that there would be no adverse effects resulting from their proposed activities, rather than objectors proving that there would be. It should be emphasised that, in relation to whaling and the dumping of radioactive material, the influence of NGOs was very evident. These, along with public awareness of environmental dangers from hazardous substances, increased very substantially during the 1980s. However, it is also interesting to note that the Basle Convention on the “Control Over the Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal” did not interfere with navigational rights under innocent passage principles. Ships carrying hazardous substances are not therefore required to seek coastal state consents to pass through a territorial sea. The second half of the decade has seen world concepts of political economy undergoing changes with respect to the environment. It has been demonstrated that the ‘labour theory of value’, which underpinned environmental perception and resource use in the centrally planned economies, was badly flawed. Natural resources were considered as having low value, since in their initial state they did not embody socially necessary labour. Similarly, in capitalist economies, no real account was taken of the value of environmental inputs which supported fish stock; values were determined for fish by the cost of catching and processing them and by market supply and demand. It was not possible either, for free market forces on their own to deal adequately with the externalities arising from many sectoral activities. As a result, intervention by governments in the form of directives or harmonisation policies gained strength, although often in ad hoc forms and without clear underlying principles. The 1986 World Commission on Environment and Development(24) helped in these respects; and also focused on many of the inadequacies in sectoral sea use management. It emphasised the needs for wider, more planned integration in space and time. The report showed the vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to inland human activities, and the linkages of offshore living resources to the coastal ecosystem; and stressed the facts of future population growth and distribution in coastal zones. The principle of ‘sustainable development’ was highlighted by the Commission as a management requirement, and it was adopted by the UN General Assembly. Basically, it meant that economic development was possible if techniques were applied which provided environmental protection, and the use of resources in a sustained way to ensure they could be passed on to future generations.

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The global scale of environmental destruction and the future impending crises became more apparent in the latter part of the decade and gave added urgencies to the application of sustainable development to sea uses. Environmental Impact Assessments were by now mandatory requirements with respect to many development projects, and were expected to be as much part of the decision-making process as financial appraisals. Another recent development is the spatial unification of some EEZs in fisheries management. The EC Common Fishery Policy now extends over the wide sea areas of North West Europe. The South Pacific Forum states also established elements of fishery management policies. This applies to about 30 million km of the Pacific within combined fishing zones. UNEP regional seas programmes appear to be moving in these directions, and the process is reinforced by the concept of large marine ecosystems for some ocean management purposes. Use zoning, and the identification and promotion of exclusive marine reserves are further advances in ocean management concepts, but practices are still lagging behind. The close of the decade has seen little progress in ocean management in the half of the world ocean still considered as high seas. Concern over drift netting and the consequent destruction of marine mammals directly, and by ghost fishing, is perhaps being resolved, but straddling stocks and endangered species are vital issues, as is the question of deep seabed mining entitlements, which remain unresolved, despite the efforts of the Preparatory Commission. It is not clear either if radioactive dumping has been finally removed. CONCLUSIONS The history of ocean management is partially the history of control over access to marine space and entitlements to the ownership of marine resources. When ocean space was perceived as plentiful and resources as infinite, management requirements were minimal. The prevailing view was of marine resources as common properties and the sea as free. Ultimately, freedom of the sea became a widespread underlying principle in law; and this was reinforced during the ages of imperialism and global naval strategy. Freedom of the sea started to be curtailed as pressures increased on resources and space, as new independent coastal states emerged, and as technology revealed previously unknown ocean resources—as well as the capacity for resource exploitation to the point of extinction. Large areas then passed under various forms of national jurisdiction. Exclusive economic zones could not, however, solve many of the basic problems of common property resources. New technology in turn, gave rise to new

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problems. These included major ship accidents, serious operational discharges, overfishing, oil well blow-outs, coastal erosion and species destruction. Several such events were seen as catastrophic and were the triggers for reactive regulations relating to particular sectors. Government departments implemented the regulations, and with the related industries, tried to manage problems as they arose. In turn, government research bodies provided data and analysis on the basis of sectoral terms of reference. It was evident as sea activities increased, and inter-sectoral conflicts appeared, that the management of sea uses on a sectoral basis could only be partially successful. The evolution towards integrated management proceeded, particularly in terms of new multi-disciplinary concepts and the activities of NGOs. There were also positive roles on the part of United Nations agencies—although several were bound by restricted areas of competence which did not correspond to the realities of the oceans. It was also apparent that European cultural perceptions made it difficult to learn from the integrating practices of other civilisations which had evolved more balanced relationships with the marine environment. It can be concluded that over a few decades, in spite of several positive measures, a gulf appeared between new integrated ocean management concepts, United Nations global policies, and national government sectoral attitudes and practices to sea uses. There are now indications that these components are beginning to come together. This has been brought about by a number of more recent events. There are strong pressures by NGOs on governments worldwide to adopt more proactive management in the face of the environmental crisis. Edward Shevardnadze(25) identifies this as the rise of political-ecology and the driving force for the future. The end of East/West conflicts has also changed several of the main strategic factors effecting ocean policies, opening the way for more controls by coastal states. There are now well integrated global networks and developing GIS facilities which will allow planning on a larger scale ecological basis. Governments are becoming increasingly committed in principle to the stewardship of the marine environment on the ‘common future’ basis. The meeting of UNCED may reinforce these trends. REFERENCES 1. 2.

United Nations, Convention on the Law of the Sea, 7 October 1982. United Nations, Development of Marine Areas Under National Jurisdiction Problems and Approaches in Policy-Making, Planning and Management,

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3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11.

12. 13.

14. 15.

16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22.

Report of the Secretary General Economic and Social Council, New York, 1987. Gold, E., Maritime Transport: The Evolution of International Marine Policy and Shipping Law, Lexington Books, 1981. Spate, O.H.K., The Spanish Lake, Australian National University Press, Canberra, 1979. Sanger, C., Ordering the Oceans, Zed Books, London, 1986. Sanger, Ibid. Hope, R., A New History of British Shipping, John Murray, London, 1990, p. 420. Marsden, The Law of Collisions at Sea, British Shipping Law, Steven & Sons, London, 1961/73. Johannes, R.E., Words of the Lagoon. Fishing and the Marine Lore in Palau District of Micronesia, University of California Press, 1981. Lucas, K., Personal Correspondence, 1990. King, M., Cartwright, I. and Carver, A., Fisheries Development in Pacific Islands: Some Problems in Paradise, in Couper, A.D., Development and Social Change in the Pacific Islands, Routledge, London, 1989, pp. 47–61. Lawson, R.M. and Kwei, African Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth, Ghana University Press, 1974. Alexander Paul, Lessons for the Pacific, Technological Transfer and Fishing Communities: The Sri Lanka Experience, in Couper, A.D., Development and Social Change in the Pacific Islands, Routledge, London, 1989, pp. 63–73. UNESCO/MAB, Traditional Knowledge and Management of Marine Coastal Ecosystems, Biology International, Special 4 Paris, 1983, p. 5. Schaefer, M.B., Some Aspects of the Dynamics of Populations Important to the Management of the Commercial Marine Fisheries, Bulletin of the Inter American Tuna Commission, 1(2), 1954. Beverton, R.J.H. and Holt, S.J., On the Dynamics of Exploited Fish Populations, Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, London, 1957. Gordon, H.S., Economic Theory of a Common-Property Resource: The Fishery, Journal of Political Economy, 62:124–142, 1954. Carson, R., Silent Spring, Houghton Muffin, Boston, 1962. Johnston, D.M., The International Law of Fisheries: A Framework for Policy-Oriented Inquiries, Yale University Press, 1965. Christy, F.T. and Scott, A., The Commonwealth in Ocean Fisheries, John Hopkins Press, Baltimore, 1965. Alexander, L.M., Offshore Geography of Northwestern Europe, Rand McNally, Chicago, 1963. Hardin, G., The Tragedy of the Commons, Science, 162:1243–1248, 1968.

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23.

24. 25.

Declaration on the Human Environment, Stockholm Conference, June 1972; in Encyclopedia of the UN and International Agreements, Taylor and Francis, 1985, 780/782. World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future, OUP, 1987. Shevordnadze, E., Governments Alone Won’t Turn the World Green, New Scientist, August, 1991.

THEORY OF OCEAN MANAGEMENT HANCE D.SMITH Department of Maritime Studies and International Transport University of Wales PO Box 907, Cardiff, CF1 3YP, UK.

ABSTRACT The theory of ocean management may be characterised as the development of a number of key ideas based on practical issues which have arisen since the seventeenth century, and which are related to specific uses, rather than being an integrated body of theory. The state of the art is reviewed through the progress of the social and natural sciences, and also with reference to traditional societies and the concept of integration. The role of theory in global change is assessed from the dominant development perspective which is partly cyclical in nature, with assessment of the significance of the traditional society, and the concepts of interrelated environmental and human global change mechanisms. Practical management aspects emphasise the primacy of interactions between man and the sea which is the basis of technical management, overlaid by a general management dimension concerned with external influences acting upon the technical management system. Both technical and general management are related to regionally-based cultural and environmental variables to produce regionally differentiated management systems. An important future role of theory is foreseen operating not only within the world of ideas, but through the forging of new maritime traditions and practical management measures in the promotion of regionally integrated management approaches and systems.

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INTRODUCTION In contrast to the discussion of the history of ocean management, to focus attention on the theory may seem presumptive. Ocean management as a practical reality remains elusive—more to be found in the realms of ideas rather than practical management, and thus awaiting clearer definition and discussion in the burgeoning literature. Because of this it is arguably premature to discuss theory in any depth. However, rather than get too involved in the semantics of ocean management, at least to begin with, it is more fruitful to commence with the historical reality of activities which may be classified as ocean management. This paper accordingly commences with a discussion of the schools of thought, loosely defined, which have arisen out of the practical realities of influencing man/sea interactions and their wider setting. The current state of the art is then examined both from narrower scientific viewpoints and wider cultural standpoints. This leads naturally to the present role of theory in the broad concepts of global change which are being used to pull together much scientific effort relating to the environment as a whole. The role of theory in influencing practical management decision-making is then considered with regard to the world of ideas, maritime traditions and practical management, with particular reference to regional geographical implications. A DEVELOPMENT OF IDEAS To talk about schools of thought in ocean management implies a scale of holistic thinking on the subject which does not square with historical reality. Rather, there has been a sequence of key ideas relating to the overall concept which has paralleled the history of ocean development. It is thus to the thread of history that we turn in the first instance to gain insight into the nature of thinking in the ocean management field. In doing this it is convenient to highlight elements in the historic pattern and relate these to the emergence of the ideas concerned. Contrary to modern appearances, ideas relating to aspects of ocean management are very old. The role of the traditional societies in this regard has been considered by Couper [1]. Bearing in mind that the traditional society remains predominant or at least influential in much of the globe, traditional approaches have considerable potential. This is especially significant concerning the concepts of closeness and balance between man and the natural environment which lie at the heart of traditional philosophies around the world, and which can surely be incorporated into

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more scientifically-oriented approaches, especially in the developing world [2]. Ideas concerning an order, or law of the sea have of course classical roots in the West. For present purposes, however, the key starting point is the emergence of modem Europe, as defined by historians, beginning with the age of exploration [3] in the second half of the fifteenth century, which in the space of three centuries provided a network of maritime links among all the traditional maritime culture regions, and implanted a development ethos in them all via immigration and transfer of ideas. A useful approach to subsequent developments from a theoretical standpoint is to consider these both as a sequence of structural development stages and part of a periodic, cyclical process. The first development in the ideas field concerned the conflict between the concepts of closed and open seas, out of which emerged the freedom of the seas in international law. It really arose at the end of the first stage of exploration which occupied the first half of the sixteenth century, but attained a progressively higher profile during the emergence of Dutch maritime supremacy after the revolution of 1580. The argument intensified during the course of the seventeenth century as Anglo-Dutch rivalry increased. The strategic use of the sea which in many ways grew out of the concept of maintaining open seas tends not to be regarded as a management activity, but in the evolution of sea use management should be so regarded. The management of naval affairs was aimed at ensuring that the seas remained open—primarily for trade, to maintain international power balances, promote colonial expansion, and even on occasion to regulate the fisheries. The latter in Britain, the primary maritime power in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, tended however to be valued more as a source of skilled manpower, to their considerable detriment at times [4]. There was a notable evolution in the patterns of conflict over seapower before 1914 [5], including the Anglo-Spanish conflict of the late sixteenth century, followed by the successive Anglo-Dutch and Anglo-French battles for supremacy, and ending with the Pax Britannica which was maintained in the world ocean from Trafalgar to Jutland. The third set of ideas revolved around the concept of safety in the operation of merchant shipping. This too had its modern origins in the seventeenth century and gained in importance in the eighteenth, especially after the establishment of Lloyd’s of London in 1734, and the Merchant Shipping Act of 1786. It gained ground much more rapidly during the period of economic expansion after the 1840s, when a truly globally integrated economy began to emerge for the first time [6]. This was evidenced in the successive British merchant shipping acts, the

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establishment of coastguards and lifesaving services, elaboration of pilotage, expansion of navigational charting, and the setting up of more classification societies. Unlike the simple concepts of closed and open seas, maritime safety and the navigation management which followed in its wake covered a wide range of diverse and organisationally disaggregated activities which in many ways came more sharply into focus after the Titanic disaster of 1912 and the ultimate establishment of the global Intergovernmental Maritime Consultative Organisation under United Nations auspices in 1948. A fourth significant development was the growth of pure scientific interest in the oceans in the course of the nineteenth century, culminating in the famous Challenger voyage of the early 1870s, which was followed by a whole series of expeditions both before and after the First World War. Paralleling this was a considerable element of hydrographic surveying for the production of navigational charts, which provided a detailed knowledge of bathymetry, albeit for primarily practical rather than purely scientific ends. The role of marine science as a use of the sea at this time was probably not regarded in a managerial light, although it required a good deal of management to bring it to fruition [7]. However, science was to be put to practical management ends before the scientific exploration of the oceans was fully under way, in investigations into the decline of commercial fish stocks. The fifth topic, fish stock conservation, was the first concept which was environmentally-based in a contemporary sense. This had been notionally on the ocean agenda since the seventeenth century, but the practical necessities arose from the decline of fish stocks in North West Europe, beginning with the Danish plaice fishery. The result was the formation of the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas (ICES), established in Copenhagen in 1902 [8]. Interestingly, the earlier collapse of certain whale populations in the mid- and late nineteenth century seems not to have generated similar practical responses. These came later, in the 1930s, and with the formation of the International Whaling Commission in 1946 [9]. Meanwhile, there were landmark conventions dealing with overfishing, including the Pacific Fur Seal Convention of 1894, and the Pacific Halibut Convention of 1924 [10]. The common feature of the development of all these ideas was their basis in the separate management organisation of individual use groups [11]. The development of the freedom of the seas and the management of seapower of course proceeded in tandem with state evolution and were primarily state responsibilities. Marine science and hydrographic surveying in turn depended on naval activity to begin with, and only towards the end

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of the nineteenth century became more the province of the growing international scientific community. The complex management of navigation had its roots in the private sector, although also the subject of increasing government intervention in the course of the nineteenth century. Fisheries management efforts were pursued by government in association with the scientific interest. All consisted of various combinations of what can now be considered as general and technical management initiatives [12]. Viewed from a geographical standpoint, the primary emphasis was on the spatial organisation of the sea, not only in maintaining its open-ness, but in strategic and navigation management. Interest in the marine environment was born of necessity, through strategic considerations and the needs of allocation and conservation of fisheries resources. After the Second World War, the management system concerned with these issues greatly expanded. It was joined by other hitherto relatively poorly developed areas, in mineral extraction, waste disposal, recreation and conservation. But the emphasis remained on the “separate use” approach until around 1970, although a harbinger of a more integrated view can be discerned in the early stages of the current phase of the evolution of the Law of the Sea in the 1950s and early 1960s. Before considering these in more detail it is necessary to take account of the “background” influences operating on the evolving management system. These influences, termed the external environment by Vallega [13], include environmental, technological, economic, social and political categories. Environmental influences and interactions were of course paramount in certain aspects of safety and fisheries conservation, but constituted only one of several priorities overall. Technological influences have of course been profound [14], notably in the coming of steam in the first instance. Economic and social influences were considerable to an extent which remains to be fully evaluated. On the long time scale which is the focus of this section of the paper, it is likely that long waves of economic and technological development and their accompanying social evolution were of critical importance. Specific political, including military influences can also be discerned but are cumulatively less significant than the trends of economic and social change in which these are in the nature of landmarks. In any event there emerged in the 1970s a sea change in the conceptual approach to sea use management which even began to be reflected in organisational (general) and practical (technical) measures. This was a move towards integration, operating at several levels. First was the conceptual level of a view of interacting uses with the environment, upon

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which both technical and general approaches could be based, including the negotiation of the Law of the Sea Convention of 1982. Inherent in this was a comprehensive approach to the specification of sea use management in both space and time [15]. Beyond this lay the beginnings of organisational change, both administrative and political [16], in which there was a strong emphasis upon the intensely used coastal zones [17]. Behind all this lay important international developments of a multidisciplinary nature reflected in the organisation of both the natural and social sciences at tertiary level in education and research [18]. There were also practical examples, supreme among which was the Great Barrier Reef management initiative [19] and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Regional Seas Programme [20], various coastal management initiatives, including the US Coastal Zone Management Act of 1972 [21], and a variety of measures applied to the European Seas. Overall, the nature and complexity of true integration began to emerge and be appreciated. THE STATE OF THE ART The purpose of this section is to examine present thinking and practice, first with regard to disciplines in both the natural and social sciences, followed by consideration of the approaches to be found in the traditional societies, and ending with the concept of integration of thinking with respect to human experience in the field of sea use management. It is appropriate to begin with the social sciences broadly defined to include history, law, sociology, anthropology, economics and human geography. Here it is necessary to distinguish to some extent between the study of the sea generally and the study of ocean management in particular, although the two are to some extent inseparable. The history of sea use management, integrated or otherwise, has still to be written, partly because in an integrated sense it is very short, as in the urban industrial world, or not history in a strict sense, in the case of the oral traditions of traditional societies. There is, however, a large literature in maritime history, especially with regard to commercial shipping, ports, naval history, fishing, and to some extent marine science. In all of this there are notable contributions to what may be termed the history of management of individual uses. This is the case for aspects of navigation [22], naval history [23] and fisheries [24]. Finally, because of the newness of integration, current literature has considerable historical value [25]. The study of the law of the sea has been a practical affair in which academic work has proceeded to a substantial extent in tandem with the

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development of the law of the sea itself [26], and those aspects of law relating to boundary delimitation [27]. Almost by definition, the post-1970 approach to the comprehensive law of the sea is concerned with the practical underpinnings of an integrated approach to sea use management. In the realms of sociology and anthropology, thinking has proceeded mainly by the case study approach, concentrating especially on the fisheries and, to some extent shipping [28]; in other words, upon traditional occupations, and often relating to traditional rather than urban industrial societies. There is a good deal of sea use management value here, not least because maritime traditions are often as not deeply imbued in traditional societies. In economics the central focus has likewise been on the traditional activities of shipping [29] and fishing [30]. As in the case of law, academic work has often been closely allied to practical implementation. Whereas shipping economics has concentrated mainly on the shipping industry, fisheries economics has been concerned both with development and conservation, often from a theoretical standpoint. As with fisheries biology, further mentioned below, it has been the academic and theoretical cornerstone of fisheries management in the second half of the twentieth century. As such, relatively little has been contributed directly to the study of sea use management, although the theory, together with wider developments in environmental economics are of great practical significance. Marine human geography lies at the centre of sea use management studies in providing a bridge between the social and natural sciences. It thus has great integrative potential, despite its relatively recent arrival on the scene [31]. This contribution exists at several levels, ranging from practical approaches based on technical and general management concepts [32] to theoretical approaches based on general system theory [33]. In the regional dimension in particular [34], there is considerable potential for integrating not only the multidisciplinary thinking per se, but also the theory with the practical applications [35]. The natural science disciplines involved include marine biology, geomorphology, geology, oceanography, and meteorology together with marine technology. It is arguably in the marine sciences that the scientific tradition is strongest and most obvious, not least because of the field-based nature of the work in environmental monitoring, engineering and development of theory. Developments in maritime technology, notably in navigation, fisheries and offshore engineering have been allied with considerable advances in both social and natural sciences, because

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technological development has itself provided great opportunities for development and management activities. The classic application of marine biology has of course been in fisheries management, extending back to the second half of the nineteenth century, and receiving a boost with the establishment of ICES. Effort has been particularly directed towards the development of models to explain the dynamics of commercial fish populations [36]. This field is now facing up to the need for the construction of multispecies models, which generally lack sufficient data. Since the 1970s, with the increased importance of conservation, the subject has also developed to deal with the ecology of major marine habitats, including coral reefs [37], mangroves [38] and large marine ecosystems [39]. Oceanography and marine meteorology [40] owe their modem origins in part to the Challenger expedition and have subsequently been built upon the acquisition of data from sea voyages by research ships, monitoring from merchant ships and latterly remote sensing data from satellite observations. Since the International Geophysical Year in 1957, a substantial momentum has been built up using large scale medium to long term “experiments” based on coordinated monitoring and model building. The International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) in particular may be regarded as the latest stage in this evolutionary process, with a particular focus upon long term atmospheric and oceanic change. In geomorphological and geological terms, the emergence of plate tectonics in the 1960s provided a revolutionary new basis for the explanation of the evolution of the ocean basins, the implications of which are still being worked out in detail in many subfields of the earth sciences. However, all this has taken place against a background in which most of the ocean floor has not been surveyed at all to modern standards [41]. Viewing the state of development of both the social and natural sciences in relation to the study of the ocean leads to the conclusion that there have been large-scale advances, especially in the course of the past quartercentury or so. Although basic exploration and fieldwork have expanded greatly during this period, the emphasis has nonetheless shifted towards integration and model-building, particularly within the confines of individual disciplines. The existence of the IGBP and Human Dimensions of Global Change (HDGC) Programmes further shifts the emphasis towards disciplinary integration, all of which heightens expectations that the next stage must be towards the application of such integrated approaches in specific management situations, at which point it is instructive to look at the knowledge relationships of traditional societies with the sea.

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Traditional maritime societies belonging to the great cultural regions of the globe [42] have always had a vast lore of traditional knowledge, summed up in artefacts such as the design of boats and fishing gear, oral traditions, and a pre-scientific world view in which kinds of knowing other than science are emphasised, inherent, for example in the wilderness concept [43]. In all these traditions, the complexity of inter-relatedness of man and the sea is emphasised, and the holistic, integrated approach to management is inherent in the ways of life, from the South Pacific islands of today [44] to the North Atlantic culture region descended from Viking times [45]. In reviewing the overall state of the art of ocean management a number of points emerge with regard to “theory”. First is the surprising importance of traditional societies, both in population and geographical extent, including the Arctic polar regions within the developed world. Although under attack and open to change, the integrated approach of these maritime traditions must not be lost sight of, and indeed can be capitalised upon in many regions where possible. Secondly the exploitation of the oceans using modem science and technology has reached a stage at which severe imbalances are inherent in man’s relationship with the oceans in almost every major sea use group. It is for a wiser further development and use of science and technology to redress the balance inherent in the philosophy and practice of traditional societies, which have often been thrown offbalance by indiscriminate application of modem science and technology. It is in this context of change that we now turn to the significance of global change. THEORY AND GLOBAL CHANGE The study of global change implies above all the integration not only of fields of knowledge, but also of knowledge with experience, both modern and traditional. This is a great challenge which must be taken up if progress is to be made. In achieving this there are arguably three fundamental starting points, namely the dominance of the development perspective in human affairs, the true significance of the traditional society, and the concept of a natural world of which man is an integral part, symbolised by the idea of “spaceship earth”. With such ideas in mind it is possible to review and grasp the significance of the IGBP and HDGC Programmes in the context of ocean management. The dominance of the development perspective at the present stage of world history can scarcely be exaggerated, despite apparent reactions against Western culture in the major traditional non-Western societies,

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and the predominantly Western concern with environmental issues. Cultural compromises can be varied and difficult to categorise—perhaps the universal adoption of modem technology is symptomatic, while in environmental affairs, the widespread currency of the sustainable development concept is striking. That there should be such a prevalence of the development perspective is hardly surprising. It has to do with the fundamentals of human nature, including the acquisition of material possessions, the advance of science and technology, and the profound social forces evidenced in political and strategic developments. Over against these driving forces stands the panoply of management exemplified by the law of the sea, planning and policy-making. In making sense of this amalgam of knowledge and experience in the maritime field much history is, as elsewhere, narrative in nature. Perhaps rightly so, theory is distrusted. And yet the existence of patterns in what is fundamentally a process of social evolution is incontrovertible not only in terms of historical evidence, but also in the environmental sciences. In plumbing the depths of theory, conventional academic disciplines can be a hindrance rather than a help. The observation of Wallerstein in the social science field that the only real subject is “historical social science” is a useful one in promoting the idea of a seamless web of knowledge and understanding set within a temporal framework. In all this, perhaps one of the most immediate problems of interest and usefulness is to increase understanding of cyclical phenomena, from the stages of Rostow [46] to the various business cycles and long waves. The integrative nature of such work transcends the conventional academic boundaries which nonetheless also serve a useful purpose in promoting integrated management approaches. Such considerations naturally lead on to considering the real nature of the traditional society. In this it is the apparent closeness, even symbiosis of society with environment which can provide much immediate inspiration. The significance of the traditional society’s relationship with the environment in general and the sea in particular is vividly portrayed in the symbol of the erthyrina leaf adopted by the World Wilderness Congresses [47]. This consists of three small leaves reminiscent of a clover leaf. One represents the relationship of person to soil, or environment, in which the concept of balance and therefore sustainable use is inherent, and indeed paramount. This has undoubtedly been the case in the long run in, for example, the relationships of coastal and island communities with the sea in areas as far apart as the North Atlantic fishing communities and the South Pacific island communities.

THEORY OF OCEAN MANAGEMENT 27

The second small leaf represents the relationship of person to person, and can include both individual and wider social relationships. Social relationships also enshrine the concept of balance, from the division of labour among men, women and children and old people in fishing communities; family inter-relationships in small communities; and the strong oral tradition present, for example, in medieval Iceland, or in oceanic island communities today. The third small leaf represents the relationship of person to divinity. Again the philosophical and religious role of the sea in traditional maritime communities is profound. In particular the sea plays a symbolic role, amply displayed, for example, in national languages in which the sea is important to the national culture, such as English. The sea figures prominently in the creation myth as, for example, in the Book of Genesis, and the gods of the sea played a prominent role in the pantheon of both the Greeks (Poseidon) and Romans (Neptune). The imagery of great sea voyages lies at the heart of exploration long before Columbus’ time in, for example, the Odyssey, the Argosy, the voyages of Sinbad the Sailor, and many more. In the past two decades or so the environmental values of the traditional societies have gradually come to be appreciated by the urban industrial world. Although much of this appreciation has been fostered by the environmental movement, there are deeper practical roots, most notably through the nineteenth century American conservation movement led by such notable individuals as John Muir and George Perkins Marsh, which led to the establishment of the National Parks. The modem expression of this is to be found in the “spaceship Earth” approaches and, most recently in the Gaia hypothesis of James Lovelock [48] which, despite its mystical connotations, has a strong conventional scientific input. It is with these ideas in mind that we now turn to the IGBP and the HDGCP, the latest and, in some ways most elaborate and ambitious in the genre of international scientific programmes which have become a marked feature of the second half of the twentieth century. There are two particularly important ideas at the heart of these programmes. The first is that of integration of scientific effort, significantly encompassing for the first time both the social and natural sciences. The second idea is that of change at global level, in both the natural and social worlds, which surely must be the top priority for the pilots in charge of spaceship earth. It is difficult to exaggerate the profound connotations of this for sea use management. Both integration and change are ideas whose time has come not only—or perhaps mainly—in the context of the world of ideas, but for the world of

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practical management which the rush of events conspires to force upon our attention. THEORY AND PRACTICAL MANAGEMENT In relating the development of ideas to practical management, the focus of the latter on the man/sea interface, as it were, is the primary consideration, as the nature of that interface largely governs the practical management tasks which emerge from it. These tasks can then be systematically considered. Beyond the interactions lie a number of social considerations related to the role of broad social influences upon the technical management tasks, including economic, technological, social and political dimensions. These, together, with environmental influences may be conceived of in terms of a general management function relating the technical management organisation to society as a whole. The marine environment itself has a recognisable management “system”, often clearer in the conceptual domain of the law of the sea, rather than in the day to day routine of management decision-making. In some ways this system is of less immediate concern in itself, than along its boundaries, particularly with land management systems in the coastal zone, and with a rapidly evolving atmospheric management system which is at a very early stage in the development process within the overall environmental management field. The primacy of man/sea interactions is paramount. Here is the focus of the technical management function discussed at length elsewhere [49]. The inputs to the technical management function are based on an empirical classification of existing practice in the field which includes scientific, technological, environmental and social categories. The technical management system has its own specific management objectives shared in various permutations and combinations across the fundamental sea use groups [50]. Of these objective groups, safety, allocation, environmental control and regional development are most obvious; research is more problematical and difficult to define, as it underlies the others and is also a sea use. Within the four technical management inputs there are three basic processes at work, namely information management, assessment of management information, and professional practice. Information management is primarily concerned with environmental monitoring, surveillance of uses and the information technology required for the use of that information in management decision-making, including data bases. The IGBP in particular focuses upon the need for considerable

THEORY OF OCEAN MANAGEMENT 29

development and refinement of marine environmental monitoring, together with the coordination of proliferating data bases [51]. The assessment of management information has begun to develop more sophisticated approaches mainly over the last twenty years or so, particularly in the environmental field, and has become something of a thriving industry, with strong currents of professionalism, unevenly applied among a diversity of professions. The principal categories concerned are environmental, technological, economic and social, together with risk, which again focuses on temporal change aspects of interest to the global change programmes. The professional practice element is focused principally on engineering, planning and law, although other professions such as surveying are becoming increasingly involved [52]. The primary manifestation of this in both public and private sectors is through the organisations concerned, including consultancies, professional firms and bodies, and national and local government departments and agencies. Beyond the technical management system lies the broader influences which assessment procedures are in part designed to cope with. Again set within a framework of change, these include environmental, technological, economic and social (including political) aspects. Thus it is possible to conceive of a practical general management dimesion concerned both with the coordination of technical management functions and dealing with external inputs through policy-making and strategic planning. Such a general management dimension inevitably involves a philosophical approach, which in turn involves the great significance of cultural differences and hence culture regions. This includes not only the division between urban industrial societies on the one hand, and rural traditional societies on the other, but also the great difference among the world’s major culture regions and their sub-regions referred to earlier in this discussion. The large number of coastal and ocean management schemes which are evolving [53] must be considered in this light: there are many ways of arriving at the fundamental, first order technical management objectives, never mind the second order general management objectives required to reconcile the technical management system to the wider world. The marine environment itself also has a profound influence upon the evolution of management systems to deal with it. Thus it is already possible to see rapidly evolving shelf sea management systems in the urbanindustrial core regions including Europe, East Asia and North America, together with other regional seas programmes under UN auspices dealing with ecologically fragile tropical oceans and coasts. The polar systems are differently based, respectively upon the Antarctic Treaty System and the

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beginnings of an Arctic system which may rapidly evolve as East-West conflict wanes in that region. There is also a proliferation of coastal management schemes, largely nationally based, often with UN backing [54] in both urban industrial and traditional regions, the ultimate purpose of which must be to bind together land and marine management systems. Beyond this, the embryonic atmospheric management system is taking shape, which will have further implications for ocean management. Overall, marine management will have to be integrated within an overall scheme of planetary environmental management which is now rapidly taking shape. In this, the marine dimension has been innovatory, notably through the law of the sea convention, regional seas measures, and the marine aspects of the Antarctic Treaty System. CONCLUSION At the beginning of this paper, it was pointed out that the theory of ocean management in a strict sense scarcely exists, at least viewed over any period of time. Rather it is more profitable to consider a series of dominant ideas which have shaped the evolution of the management system, particularly since the origins of the modern law of the sea in the seventeenth century and the contributions of specific disciplines to specific aspects of management, all of which are considered above. In reviewing and analysing future directions, four important themes emerge. The first of these concerns the world of ideas, ranging from world views possessed by all major cultures, to conventional scientific theory. Although to date geography has not been in the forefront of ocean management work, the first major works on the theory of ocean management by Vallega [55] is geographical both in terms of theory and experience. This is particularly appropriate in view of geography’s long tradition in unifying physical and human aspects of the study of the Earth, where it is almost uniquely placed. There remain considerable possibilities for further theoretical advance in and among other disciplines, contributing to a larger and more sophisticated whole, all of which is entirely appropriate on the quincentenary of Columbus’ discovery, and which must be a high priority in furthering practical management measures. The second major theme is that of maritime traditions. In traditional and modernising societies, that is, those which are becoming urban industrial, maritime traditions are the bedrock upon which relationships between humanity and the sea are built, both in the realm of ideas and in practical relationships. Maritime communities based on specific activities

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have over the centuries been among the most durable of social organisations, notably in fishing, maritime trade, naval activity and, more recently (but not geographically homogenous) in marine science. The challenge of the modern urban industrial society whose influence has come to dominate the world is no less than to construct a new maritime tradition which combines the world of ideas with that of practical action. This should encompass the values of traditional societies with regard to the balance between man and the sea, as well as modem science-based values affecting management. The third major theme is that of practical management. The role of theory here is both to inform practical management and be informed by it. The concepts of technical and general management discussed above arise from the analysis of both field evidence and the workings of management organisations and tasks. This third theme alone can both provide a sense of direction for practical management and help in integration and setting of priorities. Conversely, the continued expansion of field evidence, through the process of monitoring global change in both its physical and human dimensions will contribute hugely to development. Finally, when the world of ideas, maritime traditions and practical management are gathered together in a theoretical context, the decisive contribution of theory is to inform the human contribution to the management of the oceans. From a specifically geographical point of view, it is arguably the integrated regional articulation of ocean management which is and will be the main contribution in its regional and global dimensions, incorporating appropriate local, national, supra-national and international influences. REFERENCES 1.

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Mankabady, S., The International Maritime Organization, Croom Helm, London, 1986. See, e.g., Mahan, A.T., op. cit. [5] above. For the current situation also see Vigarie, A., Economie maritime et geostrategie des oceans, Paradigme, Caen, 1990. Birnie, Patricia, op. cit. [9] above; see also: Cushing D H., The provident sea, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1988. Kenchington, Richard A, op. cit. [19] above. O’Connell, D.P., The law of the sea, Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1982. Brown E D., Sea bed mineral resources and the law of the sea, Graham & Trotman, London, 1984–7. Churchill, R.R. and Lowe, A.V., The law of the sea. Second Edition. Manchester University Press, Manchester, 1987. Shalowitz, A., Shore and sea boundaries, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington D.C., 1962. Prescott, J.R.V., The maritime political boundaries of the world.Methuen, London, 1985. United States Department of State, Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs, Limits in the seas (series), Washington D.C., various dates. Fricke, P.H., Seafarer and community, Croom Helm, London, 1973. Andersen, R. and Wadel, C., eds., North Atlantic Fishermen: anthropological essays on modern fishing, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John’s, 1971. Tunstall J., The fishermanu, McGibbon & Kee, 1969. Thompson, P., with Lummis, T., Living the fishing, Routledge & Kegan Paul, London, 1983. Couper, Alastair D., ed., Development and social change in the Pacific Islands, Routledge, London, 1989. Goss, R.O., Studies in maritime economics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1970. Srurmey, S., Shipping economics, Macmillan, London, 1975. Stopford, M., Maritime economics, Unwin Hyman, London, 1988. Anderson, L.G., The economics of fisheries management, John’s Hopkins University Press, Baltimore, 1977. Lawson, R., The economics of fishery development, Frances Pinter, London, 1984. Cunningham, S., Dunn, M.R. and Whitmarsh, D., Fisheries economics: an introduction, Mansell, London, 1985. Falick, A.J., Maritime geography and oceanography. Professional Geographer, 1966, 18, 283–285. Walton, K., A geographer’s view of the sea. Scott. geogrl. Mag., 1974, 90(1), 4–13. Couper, A.D., ed., The Times atlas of the oceans, Times Books, London, 1983. Vallega, Adalberto, Per una geografia del mare: transporti marittimi e rivoluzioni economiche. Mursia, Milano, 1984. Vallega, Adalberto, Ecumeno oceano: il mare nella civilta ieri, oggi, domani, Mursia, Milano, 1985. Vigarie, A., Ports de commerce et vie littorale, Hachette, Paris, 1979. Smith, Hance D., 1986, op. cit. [18] above.

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32.

33. 34.

35. 36. 37.

38.

39.

40. 41.

42. 43.

44. 45. 46. 47. 48. 49.

Smith, Hance D., The theory and practice of sea use management. In The new frontiers of marine geography/Les nouvelles frontieres de la geographie de la mer. ed. Hance D.Smith and A.Vigarie, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Gruppo di Coordinamento ’Geografia Umana’, Roma, 1988, pp. 16–32. Vallega, Adalberto, 1992, op. cit. [13] above. Morgan, Joseph R., Marine regions and the law of the sea, Ocean and Shoreline Management, 1991, 16(4), 261–272. Smith, Hance D. ed., The development of marine regions, ibid., pp. 259–338. Smith, Hance D., 1987, op. cit. [18] above. Laevastu, T. and Larkins, H.A., Marine Fisheries ecosystem: its quantitative evaluation and management, Fishing News Books, London, 1981. Kenchington R.A. and Hudson, B.E.T., UNESCO Coral Reef Management Handbook Second Edition, UNESCO ROSTSEA, Jakarta, 1987. Hamilton, L.S. and Snedaker, S.C., eds., Handbook for Mangrove Area Management, United Nations Environment Program/East-West Center, Environment and Policy Institute, Honolulu, 1984. Alexander, Lewis M., Managing large marine ecosystems, In Proceedings of the International Geographical Union Commission on Marine Geography, Meeting at La Rabida, May 1991, in press. See, e.g., Sverdrup, H.U., Johnson, M.W. and Fleming, R.H., The oceans, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, 1946. See, e.g., The Hydrographer of the Navy, The North Sea—statement on hydrographic knowledge. In Greenwich Forum V—The North Sea: A new international regime?, ed. D.C.Watt, Westbury House, Guildford, 1980, pp. 155–162. Broek, Jan O.M. and Webb, D.W., A geography of mankind, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, New York, 1973, pp. 197–221. Martin, Vance, ed., Wilderness, The Findhom Press, Findhom, 1982. Martin, Vance and Inglis, Mary, eds., Wilderness: The way ahead, The Findhom Press/Lorian Press, Findhom/Middleton, Wisconsin, 1984. Martin, Vance, ed., For the conservation of the earth, Fulcrum, Golden, Colorado, 1988. Couper, Alastair D., ed. 1989, op. cit. [28] above. Marcus, G.J., The conquest of the North Atlantic, Boydell, 1980. Rostow, W.W., The stages of economic growth: a non-communist manifesto, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1960. Player, Ian, The leaf. In Wilderness, ed. Vance Martin, op. cit. [43] above, pp. 15–16. Lovelock, James, Gaia, Gaia Books, 1991. Smith, Hance D., op. cit. [12], [18] and [32] above. Halliday, J.E., Smith, H.D., The integration of coastal and sea use management. In Advances in

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50. 51.

52. 53. 54. 55.

the science and technology of ocean management, ed. Hance D.Smith, Routledge, London, 1992, pp. 166–178. Couper, Alastair D., ed., 1983, op. cit. [32] above. Smith, Hance D., 1985, op. cit. [11] above. Fritz, Jan-Stefan, A survey of environmental monitoring & information management programmes of international organisations, UNEP/GSF, Munchen, 1990. Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, Test of professional competence in Marine Resource Management, RICS, London, n.d. Vallejo, 1988, op. cit. [17] above. Ibid. Vallega, Adalberto, 1992, op. cit. [13] above. See also: Vallega, Adalberto, Ocean change in global change: introductory geographical analysis, Universita degli studi di Genova, Genova, 1990.

OCEAN MANAGEMENT IN PRACTICE GERARD PEET SEA Division of AIDEnvironment (1)

ABSTRACT History and theory of ocean management have created a basis for a more integrated approach towards ocean management. It is questionable whether integrated ocean management will ever exist in practice. Some countries may be moving towards an integrated management system, other countries may have moved beyond efforts to create such a system. Using some of the basic notions underlying the concept of integrated ocean management (comprehensiveness, coherence, consistency and costeffectiveness) this paper reviews some examples of ocean management in practice. The Mediterranean Action Plan of 1975 provides an early example of efforts towards an integrated approach. It has now moved beyond that and may even reached a stage of disintegration in the approach towards management of this region. The North Sea provides an example of countries jointly moving towards a more integrated approach for the (environmental) management of this area. Here, at least one North Sea state is now moving beyond its efforts to create a more integrated approach of its North Sea policies: the Netherlands. America, the new world, also provides some examples of efforts with respect to ocean management. Canada is making efforts towards a more integrated approach and the United States of America has developed a variety of instruments that are quite useful for a more integrated system of ocean management, albeit without making efforts in practice towards developing a more integrated approach towards ocean management.

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INTRODUCTION The previous papers demonstrated that the history of ocean management has reached a stage in which recent developments have created opportunities for more integrated ocean management to emerge, and that the theory of ocean management has moved towards increasingly integrated management concepts. What has happened in practice with respect to ocean management? Before turning to the practice of management in a number of sea areas, it is useful to recall the description of ocean management as given by professor Couper in the first presentation of this session: What may now be understood as ocean management, if current views are pulled together, is methodology through which sectoral activities and environmental quality in a sea area are considered as a whole, and their uses optimised in order to maximise net benefits to a nation, but without prejudicing local socio-economic interests or jeopardising benefits to future generations. This description implies the recognition that many activities at sea are interconnected and consequently that there is a need for policies based on the various degrees of functional integration in the marine environment. Using this description, and other descriptions or definition for ocean management as given in the literature with respect to ocean management, one might identify four key characteristics of ocean management.

KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF OCEAN MANAGEMENT

1. 2. 3. 4.

Comprehensiveness of its scope Coherence of its elements Consistency over time Cost-effectiveness of its results

INTEGRATED OCEAN MANAGEMENT? Professor Couper’s description is not a definition of integrated ocean management. It is questionable whether integrated ocean management is possible in practice. Professor Couper noted that what he describes as the objective of ocean management may, overall, be unattainable. Others, too have noted that ocean systems may be too complex to be managed by a single system of integrated ocean management.

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Integrated ocean management may therefore well be a concept that will (or can) never be put into practice. Some countries may move towards a system of integrated ocean management for their ocean space as they become increasingly aware of the necessity to base their ocean policy on the inter-relations of activities at sea and the marine environment. Other countries may have moved beyond efforts to create such a system as they become increasingly aware that one single system of integrated ocean management is unattainable but that the principles underlying the concept of integrated ocean management should be used in their ocean policies. But one single system of integrated ocean management, however, may never exist, except occasionally in the mind of politicians who do not cease to advocate integrated policies at times when they cannot find effective solutions to the problems facing them. The countries moving towards an increasingly integrated approach of ocean management would be developing a more comprehensive basis for their policy, in substance (information base) as well as in organisation (institutional arrangements). These countries would also make efforts to replace ad-hoc short term policies with more consistent long term policies. The countries moving beyond the development of integrated ocean management would generally have a comprehensive basis for their ocean policies, but could be moving away from centralizing management efforts to creating a better coherence between the various elements of their management efforts. Such countries would also increasingly focus their attention on the cost-effectiveness of their ocean management system. Theoretically, this may seem a logical development of ocean management. But again, the question is, what has happened in practice with respect to ocean management? THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA MOVING TOWARDS OR BEYOND INTEGRATED OCEAN MANAGEMENT? As early as in February 1975, sixteen Mediterranean Governments (2) agreed an Action Plan for the Mediterranean (3). One of the main aspects of this Action Plan was the ’integrated planning of the development and management of the resources of the Mediterranean Basin’. This, of course, makes the Mediterranean an obvious choice as the first example of the development towards integrated ocean management in practice. The adoption of the Mediterranean Action Plan by these states was followed by several agreements. In 1976, the Convention for the Protection of the Mediterranean Sea against pollution was adopted,

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together with a Protocol for the Prevention of Pollution of the Mediterranean Sea by Dumping from Ships and Aircraft and a Protocol concerning Cooperation in Combating Pollution of the Mediterranean Sea by Oil and Other Harmful Substances in Cases of Emergency. In 1980 a Protocol for the Protection of the Mediterranean Sea Against Pollution from Land-Based Sources was adopted, followed in 1982 by a Protocol Concerning Mediterranean Specially Protected Areas. In 1989, the Blue Plan (4) was published, an effort started in 1977 to make available to the authorities and planners of the various countries in the Mediterranean information which will enable them to formulate their own plans to ensure optimal socio-economic development without causing environmental degradation and to help the Governments of the states bordering the Mediterranean region to deepen their knowledge of the common problems facing them, both in the Mediterranean Sea and its coastal regions. In 1977, the Mediterranean states also decided to develop a Priority Actions Programme aimed at offering a direct practical approach to environmental problems complementary and parallel to the long term strategies of the Blue Plan. For the protection of endangered species, the Mediterranean states developed special action plans with regard to the monk seal, marine turtles, and cetaceans in the Mediterranean Sea. New Protocols are under preparation: a Protocol on Exploration and Exploitation of the Continental Shelf and the Sea-Bed and its Sub-Soil, a Protocol and a Protocol with respect to Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal (5). All in all, an impressive list of achievements in a wide range of important Mediterranean issues. It should be no surprise that many consider the Mediterranean Action Plan and the Barcelona Convention as a shining example of international cooperation with regard to, among others, ocean management. Integrated planning and management was one of the key concepts of the international efforts with respect to the Mediterranean Sea. The concept of integrated management for the Mediterranean has been put in some perspective by the authors of the Blue Plan when they note that the Blue Plan was never intended as a binding instrument for centralizing economic planning and resource management for the basin as a whole (6). Peter Haas, in his book about the politics of international environmental cooperation in the Mediterranean, notes that Integrated management is the Med Plan’s least successful component (7). One of the reasons for this could have been that the concept of integrated planning and management was never well understood by all parties. The southern Mediterranean countries found the Blue Plan approach too abstract and were interested more in concrete

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projects, directly applicable to their own development efforts. The Mediterranean region may be too complex in its ecology and economy and an integrated system to manage that region may, as observed before, be unattainable. Even the efforts towards an integrated approach of that region may have been too complex for many of those involved. It raises the question how then to characterize the current status of ocean management in the Mediterranean region. Comprehensiveness The Blue Plan is a clear result of the efforts towards developing a comprehensive insight in characteristics and potential developments in the Mediterranean region. Its comprehensiveness encompasses the entire Mediterranean countries and not just the coastal zone or the sea. With respect to the sea the Blue Plan might even be considered as not too comprehensive. In part, this was not a task for the Blue Plan: the situation and evolution of the marine environment were to be studied in detail in the MEDPOL programme (8). However, the Blue Plan is also rather ‘concise’ in its description of important marine economic resources such as fisheries and offshore oil, gas and other resources and fails to address these issues in terms of management. The MEDPOL programme has produced extensive reviews of the state of the environment of the Mediterranean Sea. In an institutional sense, the Mediterranean Action Plan can also be characterized as comprehensive. It has its own organization with a coordinating unit in Athens and additional regional centres for various activities. In May 1990, when Albania ratified the Barcelona Convention, every Mediterranean nation (and the European Economic Community) had joined the international efforts with respect to the Mediterranean region. The Protocols to the Barcelona Convention have also been ratified almost completely by all Mediterranean states (9). In a legal sense, international instruments have been or are being developed with respect to a variety of marine issues of the Mediterranean region: dumping of wastes at sea, pollution emergencies, land based pollution, specially protected areas, exploration and possibly the exploitation of resources of the continental shelf or even the protection of marine wildlife. One important marine issue is lacking in this list: fisheries. In summary, substantial efforts have been made to produce a comprehensive base of knowledge and concepts or strategies for management for the Mediterranean region. This is also true with respect to

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the institutional and legal component of international Mediterranean regional efforts. For the Mediterranean Sea, however, the efforts towards creating a comprehensive knowledge base with regard to the marine resources have been less comprehensive. Whilst extensive attention has been given to environmental (i.e.) pollution) issues (in terms of developing a better basis of information and of creating institutional arrangements and legal instruments), there is relatively little attention at this international level for important marine issues such as fisheries. Ocean management at an international level in the Mediterranean region therefore cannot be characterized as being comprehensive in spite of the truly comprehensive efforts with respect to environmental protection. Coherence The institutional arrangements with respect to the Mediterranean Action Plan helps to achieve coherence between the various elements of the Mediterranean Action Plan. The Blue Plan and its survey of strategies and options was also intended to contribute to stronger intra-Mediterranean cooperation and consequently to more coherence in the various development efforts in the Mediterranean region. The Blue Plan may or may not have contributed made that contribution, it was at least an important and substantial effort to do so. Recent developments, however, may adversely affect the coherence between Mediterranean management efforts. The European Economic Community has initiated its own initiatives with respect to the Mediterranean region. Among these is the so-called MEDSPA programme, adopted by the Council of Ministers in December 1990, that focuses on environmental protection (10). The European Commission also initiated a Conference of Mediterranean Coastal States that resulted in the adoption of the Nicosia Charter in which the European Community and seventeen Mediterranean states agree on actions to be taken with respect to the Mediterranean environment (11). The World Bank and European Investment Bank also participated in this meeting. Whilst the United Nations Environment Programme (and consequently the coordinating body of the Mediterranean Action Plan) was also present at this meeting it is difficult to determine a sense of coherence between the activities of the Mediterranean Action Plan and the European Community initiatives. The progress report of the executive director on the implementation of the Mediterranean Action Plan over 1990 and 1991 only briefly mentions this initiative (12) and announced that the European Community will present a specific programme at the seventh meeting of the Barcelona Convention.

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This meeting, held in Cairo from 8–11 October 1991, did not discuss such a programme as it did not discuss the MEDSPA programme either (13). The European Commission did announce, however, that it had appointed its own Task Force of independent experts to prepare a draft long-term strategy for the Mediterranean that would be discussed at a meeting of the Nicosia Charter parties in April 1992. In summary, whilst the activities and various elements within the framework Mediterranean Action Plan appear to come together in a coherent system, initiatives from the European Commission (a contracting party of the Barcelona Convention!) appear to be detached from this coherence. Consistency The Mediterranean Action Plan has now a history of over fifteen years. The parties to this Action Plan have continued to build upon the original ideas. In 1985, the Mediterranean countries adopted the Genoa Declaration to reconfirm their original commitment and also to accelerate and increase their efforts (14). The Nicosia Charter also confirms these commitments. In its original concept and in its further development the Mediterranean Action Plan has been a long-term and consistent effort. Cost-effectiveness Cost-effectiveness of the Mediterranean Action Plan has now become one of the most important and time consuming issues discussed at meetings of the contracting parties to the Barcelona Convention. The report of the 1991 meeting of the Barcelona Convention (15) hardly reflects the nature of the discussions on this issue. There was a strong undercurrent in these discussions, notably from the French delegation, doubting the costeffectiveness of the institutions of the Mediterranean Action Plan (16). After long discussions (almost three full days out of four days were spent on budget discussions) the meeting agreed on a budget increase for 1992 and 1993 that may not compensate inflation in those years. Some delegations felt that the budget as approved may not be sufficient for the Mediterranean Action Plan to function adequately. Cost-effectiveness has two sides for the Mediterranean Action Plan. France’s claim that too much money is spent ineffectively. The claim by others that the budget is insufficient to adequately fulfil the planned functions of the Mediterranean Action Plan or, in other words, that there is too little money for the Mediterranean Action Plan to be cost-effective.

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There are other ways to look at the cost-effectiveness of the Mediterranean Action Plan. In particular the answer to the question of whether or not the decisions taken within this framework are being implemented effectively could be seen as a measure of its cos-effectiveness. At the 1991 meeting of the Barcelona Convention dr. Mostafa K.Tolba, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme had some interesting points to make in this respect in his statement to the meeting (17). -Only two countries (France and Spain) have completed and sent the questionnaires on land-based sources of pollution which were sent to the Contracting Parties in 1989. This is certainly not the way that the action agreed on by Contracting Parties should be implemented. -No answers were received from the Contracting Parties to a letter sent in July 1990 asking for information on the implementation of existing or new legislation related to the measures against pollution adopted by the Contracting Parties since 1985. It is impossible to assess the efficiency of the common measures without receiving information on their implementation. -Ten countries still do not have national contingency plans which are a prerequisite to any form of intervention on an accidental spill. -Parties are not submitting consolidated annual reports on measures adopted to implement the Barcelona Convention and its related protocols, which is required under Article 20 of the Convention. Only four countries are sending national reports on environmental protection. A fact that strongly suggests that the Contracting Parties should seriously consider the implementation of Article 21 of the Convention on compliance control. -Although considerable progress was achieved in the design and implementation of the national monitoring programmes, which form the basis for the assessment of pollution and the preparation of common measures, several countries are still without a fully operational monitoring programme. If countries are not fulfilling reporting requirements one may seriously question whether these countries are implementing those measures that should be reported. And if such measures are not implemented one may seriously question the cost-effectiveness of the efforts that lead to these measures. That this is at least partly true is also clear from the farewell interview of Aldo Manos, the former coordinator of the Mediterranean Action Plan (MAP), in which he states: Mediterranean governments still need a lot to do. In fact in certain cases they are unwilling to act, which considerably hinders MAP’s work (18). If the Nicosia Charter initiative would turn out to be a duplication of the Mediterranean Action Plan effort one might conclude that that too

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would not be cost-effective. And there are some signals that the Nicosia Charter might be such a duplication of effort. Ocean Management for the Mediterranean Sea The international framework set up for planning and management in the Mediterranean region could all in all be characterized as moving beyond the efforts to create a more integrated approach to the planning and management for that area. A comprehensive basis for planning and management has been created and on the basis of that basis decisions have been taken with respect to priorities (rather than to continue efforts to try and create one single planning and management system). Arrangements have been made to ensure consistency between the various elements of the Mediterranean Action Plan. There is a long-term programme to provide consistency over time. And there is an increasing attention for the costeffectiveness (implementation, etc.) of the programme. With a positive mind one might conclude from this that the Mediterranean Action Plan is still developing positively. Dr. Tolba certainly seems to feel that way when he states that the Mediterranean Action Plan remains a leader among UNEP’s Regional Seas Programmes in many areas of concern, such as monitoring of pollution, the study of the implications of climate change, environmental impact assessments, coastal areas management and others (19). With a more pessimistic mind one would find signs of disintegration of the Mediterranean Action Plan which would be another option for moving beyond integration. What are these signals? The problems regarding the budget of the Mediterranean Action Plan are among these. There is no room to expand the activities of the Mediterranean Action. If inflation would be higher than 20% over 1992 and 1993, the budget approved in 1991 would effectively be cut. This would be in strong contrast with the potentially duplicating efforts of the European Community in the Nicosia Charter. One does not need too much fantasy to see the Nicosia Charter and associated European Community institutions (e.g. the Task Force of independent experts appointed by the European Community that will prepare a draft long term strategy, or the planned meeting of the Nicosia Charter partners in April 1992, only six months after the Barcelona Convention meeting) as an effort to create an alternative framework for planning and management in the Mediterranean region. Ocean management for the Mediterranean Sea suffers from the same (potential) problems. The effectiveness of the implementation of the measures with respect to the protection of the marine environment is

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uncertain. In addition, ocean management is not high of the list of priorities of the Mediterranean Action Plan. In 1989 the meeting of Contracting Parties to the Barcelona Convention decided that with regard to planning and management, as follow-up to the Blue Plan priority should be given to the integrated planning of coastal zones (20). Ocean management efforts are also lacking a basis of comprehensiveness as, especially, fisheries management is not taken into account. Fisheries management in the Mediterranean Sea is still very much in the realm of national governments. Fisheries interests are a major factor in the fact that only two Mediterranean nations have established a 200 miles Exclusive Economic Zone or Exclusive Fisheries Zone (21). It is clear that, at least with regard to fisheries interests, the Mediterranean states are not inclined towards a more integrated approach of ocean management. This is true at an international, it may also be true at a national level. Professor Couper has already indicated in his paper that before multiple activities in sea areas can be managed, it is clearly necessary to establish who has the authority for making rules and setting priorities within a specified space, and what the law is with regard to resource ownership and access. Without the establishment of an Exclusive Economic Zone, as is the case for almost all Mediterranean states, these conditions for a more integrated approach are not met. In summary, the situation with respect to ocean management in the Mediterranean Sea is not as positive as the numerous publications describing the success of the Mediterranean Action Plan suggest. THE NORTH SEA MOVING TOWARDS OR BEYOND INTEGRATED OCEAN MANAGEMENT? Whereas the roots for the integrated approach for planning and management for the Mediterranean region are to be found at an international level (UNEP), the roots for such activities with respect to the North Sea are to be found in two North Sea states: the Netherlands and the Federal Republic of Germany. And whereas the efforts with respect to a more integrated approach in the Mediterranean region focus on land and sea, the efforts in the North Sea are focusing truly on the sea, on ocean management. The Netherlands’ North Sea policy (22) In 1982, the Netherlands Government published its proposals with regard to the harmonization of its North Sea policy. The proposals were based on

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a comprehensive inventory and analysis of the (Netherlands sector of) the North Sea and were aimed at improving the coordination of the at that time dispersed and uncoordinated North Sea policy in the Netherlands. The Netherlands Government chose a more coordinated (harmonized) approach to achieve more coherence between the policies with respect to the various sectors of relevance to the North Sea. The Netherlands Government at that time rejected a policy of integral management or ‘blue print planning’ as this would be unwise in an area where developments and changes could be overtaking any ‘blue print plan’ very quickly. The harmonized North Sea policy consisted of three elements: -a policy framework with a description of the characteristics of the North Sea and the activities taking place in the North Sea, of the (potential) areas of conflict and problems, of the regulatory framework, and of the overall policy objectives, -an action programme with priorities for action within the Netherlands North Sea policy, and the institutional framework for the Netherlands North Sea policy. The institutional framework is of major importance in the Netherlands North Sea policy. The Minister of Transport and Public Works was appointed as coordinating Minister for North Sea Affairs. Important decisions with respect to the North Sea were to be taken by a newly established Ministerial Council on North Sea Affairs (MICONA). Decisions were prepared within the Interdepartmental Coordination Commission for North Sea Affairs (ICONA) consisting of high level civil servants from all Ministries involved in North Sea policy. Interest groups were given a chance to discuss plans with regard to the North Sea in a special advisory body: the North Sea Commission of the Council for Water Management, an advisory council to the Minster of Transport and Public Works. For Parliamentary debate of North Sea policy or elements of the North Sea policy a special Parliamentary Commission for the Seas was established. This harmonized North Sea policy has resulted in a better coordinated policy with respect to the North Sea. It has been evaluated regularly and is currently again being reevaluated. Progress reports about the effective implementation of the various action points have been regularly published. In 1992, the Netherlands Government will have to make a choice with respect to the continuation of its policy for the North Sea, hence the present reevaluation. The Netherlands North Sea policy can be characterized as comprehensive in its scope. Efforts have been made to achieve coherence between the various elements of this policy. It has been reasonably

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consistent over the years since 1982, and there has been some evaluation of its effectiveness. The Netherlands North Sea policy was quick to move beyond efforts to try and develop an integrated system of planning and chose to use a coherent list of priority actions within a policy framework of long term policy objectives. The Federal Republic of Germany In 1980, the German Council of Experts for Environmental Issues published a report about the environmental problems of the North Sea (23). It was an effort to present a comprehensive review of the environmental problems of the North Sea. Several years later it proved to be the basis for international efforts with respect to the (environmental) management of the North Sea at an international level. International efforts for the North Sea The Federal Republic of Germany took the initiative to organize an international Ministerial Conference for the North Sea in Bremen in 1984, where the Ministers from all North Sea states responsible for environmental protection of the North Sea met to discuss measures to protect the North Sea environment. In preparation of this meeting a report had been prepared to assess the quality status of the North Sea environment that served as a basis for discussions during the Conference. The most important result of this first meeting may well have been the decision to have a second Conference. This second meeting took place in November 1987 in London and resulted in a large number of decisions with respect to environmental protection of the North Sea and a decision to have a third meeting. At the first and second North Sea Ministerial Conference discussions were limited to issues with respect to environmental (pollution) protection. At the third meeting efforts were made to widen the scope of discussion. Issues like the establishment of Exclusive Economic Zones by the North Sea, fisheries, and protection of wildlife and habitats were also put on the agenda (24). The North Sea states also agreed to meet at a fourth Ministerial North Sea Conference in 1995. It is important to note that the Ministerial Conferences have not resulted in the adoption of major new international Conventions for environmental protection of the North Sea. Such instruments already existed before the first Ministerial Conference was organized (e.g. the Paris Convention on Pollution from Land Based Sources and the Oslo

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Convention on the Dumping of Wastes). The Ministerial Conferences proved to be a useful instrument for increasing the coordination and coherence between these international instruments as well as for providing new political impetus for these existing international instruments. At an international level, the North Sea states appear to be moving towards a more integrated approach of North Sea management. The scope of discussions at the North Sea Ministerial Conferences is moving towards an increased comprehensiveness. MOVING TO THE OTHER SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN Until now attention has been focused mainly on European and North African efforts in the field of ocean management. Ocean management is, obviously, not an issue exclusive to this part of the world. Efforts to develop a more integrated approach for ocean management can also be found at, for instance, the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. The Caribbean region is following the example of the Mediterranean region. Here too, the United Nations Environment Programme initiated an Action Plan and associated Convention and Protocols. In the United States of America no efforts have been made on a national level to develop a more integrated approach for ocean management in spite of the fact that many publications there have advocated such efforts. However, several instruments for management of ocean resources have been developed in the USA that would be extremely useful elements of such a more integrated approach, such as the system of environmental impact assessment used in the USA or the marine sanctuary programme. Some US states, however, have embarked upon the road towards a more integrated approach to ocean management. Hawaii and Oregon for instance have developed ocean management plans for the waters off their coasts (25). Canada too has made the first steps towards an ocean strategy. In 1987 it published a report on ocean strategy which gave three ‘compelling reasons’ for the development of a Canadian oceans strategy (26): -Canada has extensive ocean territories. A strategy will ensure Canadians can capitalize on the many development opportunities on this frontier, especially during the next five years. -There is currently a broad range of federal oceans policies and programs. A framework is needed to ensure that they are coordinated, effective and efficient.

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-This strategy provides a tangible means of moving forward on major federal priorities— regional development, world-class science and technology, and protection of Canadian sovereignty. An economic overview and inventory of federal government activities with regard to oceans was published in 1987 as well, providing at least a start towards a comprehensive knowledge base for such an oceans strategy. CONCLUSION This paper has given extensive attention to (ocean) management in the Mediterranean region and has briefly touched upon such issues in the North Sea and in North America. Ocean management with characteristics such as comprehensiveness, coherence, consistency and cost-effectiveness is clearly becoming increasingly important in practice even though many of the present efforts are still in their early, yet promising stages. REFERENCES 1.

2. 3.

4. 5.

6.

Gerard Peet is director of the SEA Division of AIDEnvironment in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. He is also a research associate at the Department of Planning, Design and Management at the University of Technology in Delft and at the Netherlands Institute for the Law of the Sea at the University of Utrecht, both in the Netherlands. He is a guest investigator at the Marine Policy Institute at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in the USA. As a consultant to the environmental organization Friends of the Earth International he represents this organization as an observer at, among others, the Barcelona Convention and the International Maritime Organization. Algeria, Egypt, France, Greece, Israel, Italy, Lebanon, Libya, Malta, Monaco, Morocco, Spain, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, Yugoslavia United Nations Environment Programme; Mediterranean Action Plan and the Final Act of the Conference of Plenipotentiaries of the Coastal States of the Mediterranean Region for the Protection of the Mediterranean Sea; United Nations, New York, 1978 Michel Grenon and Michel Batisse; Futures for the Mediterranean Basin, The Blue Plan; Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1989, p.vii The environmental organization Friends of the Earth International has also prepared a draft text for a possible Protocol concerning the Protection of Mediterranean Wildlife which has been distributed informally to some participants of the seventh meeting of the Barcelona Convention in Cairo from 8–11 October 1991 Michel Grenon and Michel Batisse; Futures for the Mediterranean Basin, The Blue Plan; Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1989, p.vii

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7.

8. 9.

10. 11. 12.

13.

14.

15.

16. 17.

18. 19.

20.

Peter M.Haas; Saving the Mediterranean, the politics of international environmental cooperation ; Columbia University Press, New York, 1990, p. 118 Michel Grenon and Michel Batisse; Futures for the Mediterranean Basin, The Blue Plan; Oxford University Press, Oxford, 1989, p.250 United nations Environment Programme, Mediterranean Action Plan; Progress report of the Executive Director on the Implementation of the Mediterranean Action Plan in 1990–1991 (UNEP(OCA)/MED IG.2/Inf. 3); UNEP, Athens, 1991, Annex II Bull. EC 12–1990, p. 122 Bull. EC 4–1990, pp. 30–31 United nations Environment Programme, Mediterranean Action Plan; Progress report of the Executive Director on the Implementation of the Mediterranean Action Plan in 1990–1991 (UNEP(OCA)/MED IG.2/Inf. 3); UNEP, Athens, 1991, p. 2 United Nations Environment Programme, Mediterranean Action Plan; Report of the seventh ordinary meeting of the Contracting Parties to the Convention for the Protection of the Mediterranean Sea against Pollution and its related protocols (UNEP(OCA)/MED IG.2/4); UNEP, Athens, 1991, p. 7 published in, among others, MED WAVES (News Bulletin of the Mediterranean Action Plan Coordinating Unit in Athens); Issue No 3, November–December 1985, p. 12 United Nations Environment Programme, Mediterranean Action Plan; Report of the seventh ordinary meeting of the Contracting Parties to the Convention for the Protection of the Mediterranean Sea against Pollution and its related protocols (UNEP(OCA)/MED IG.2/4); UNEP, Athens, 1991, pp. 8–11 the author of this paper attended the 1991 meeting of the Barcelona Convention United Nations Environment Programme, Mediterranean Action Plan; Report of the seventh ordinary meeting of the Contracting Parties to the Convention for the Protection of the Mediterranean Sea against Pollution and its related protocols (UNEP(OCA)/MED IG.2/4); UNEP, Athens, 1991, Annex III pp. 3–4 published in MED WAVES (News Bulletin of the Mediterranean Action Plan Coordinating Unit in Athens); Issue No 22, Winter/Spring 1991, p. 6 United Nations Environment Programme, Mediterranean Action Plan; Report of the seventh ordinary meeting of the Contracting Parties to the Convention for the Protection of the Mediterranean Sea against Pollution and its related protocols (UNEP(OCA)/MED IG.2/4); UNEP, Athens, 1991, Annex III p. 4 United Nations Environment Programme, Mediterranean Action Plan; Report of the sixth ordinary meeting of the Contracting Parties to the

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21.

22.

23. 24. 25.

26.

Convention for the Protection of the Mediterranean Sea against Pollution and its related protocols (UNEP(OCA)/MED IG.1/5); UNEP, Athens, 1989, pp. 16–18 and Annex V Ton IJlstra; Development of jurisdiction in EC’s regional seas, National EEZ policies of EC member-states in the Northeast Atlantic, the Mediterranean and the Baltic Sea; in press see, among others, Ton IJlstra; The organization of North Sea policy in the Netherlands, substantive and institutional aspects; published in Water Law, Volume 2 Issue 4, July 1991, pp. 127–132 Der Rat van Sachverständigen für Umweltfragen; Umweltprobleme der Nordsee, Sondergutachten; Verlag Kohlhammer; Stuttgart, 1980 North Sea Conference; Ministerial Declaration, Memorandum of Understanding on Small Cetaceans; The Hague, 1990 Hawaii Ocean and Marine Resources Council; Hawaii Ocean Resources Management Plan; Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, State of Hawaii, 1991 The Oregon Ocean Resources Management Task Force; Oregon’s Ocean Resources Management Plan; State of Oregon, 1991 Department of Fisheries and Oceans; Oceans policy for Canada, a strategy to meet the challenges and opportunities on the oceans frontier; Ottawa, 1987

SEA-LEVEL RISE AND ITS IMPLICATION IN COASTAL PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT Dallas L.Peck and S.Jeffress Williams U.S. Geological Survey Reston, Virginia, USA

ABSTRACT Coastal erosion and loss of tidal wetland habitats have become major problems for many nations around the world due to a combination of complex natural and manmade causes. Sea level, a major factor in coastal land loss, has varied greatly in the last 150,000 years, from—130 m to +7 m relative to the present, and analyses of worldwide tide-gauge data show that eustatic sea level has risen approximately 12 to 15 cm during the past century and apparently continues. Land subsidence along some delta-plain coasts, such as Louisiana’s, has increased relative sea-level rise at almost 10 times the present worldwide average. Accelerations in sea-level rise caused by climatic warming are forecast to be significant during the next century and are likely to have broad impacts on world population and coastal development. Options to mitigate these effects include long term coastal planning and management based on current knowledge of coastal geologic processes. INTRODUCTION Coastal regions around the world are experiencing greatly increased pressures as a result of rapid population growth and accompanying development. Although coastal areas are highly desirable both for their abundant natural resources and habitability, they are also are extremely dynamic environments in which several conditions hazardous to humans

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Table 1. U.S. Coastal States Forecasted Population Changes 1960 to 2010. (From Culliton and others, 1990.)

* Million persons

(e.g., erosion, flooding, pollution) are present. These hazards are increasing at alarming rates as coastal development, recreation, and waste disposal increase, often in direct conflict with long-term natural coastal processes. Historical records indicate that conflicts between our ancestors and nature have long existed in coastal areas. During the past 50 years, however, such conflicts have intensified greatly, and current information suggests that the conflicts will increase during the next century. For example, the 1990 census of the United States shows that 25 of the 30 coastal states have undergone dramatic population increases in the past decade—in fact, several states recorded increases exceeding 30 percent Coastal areas of the United States now have population densities five times the national average, and demographic projections suggest that movement toward the coasts will continue into the 21st century (Table 1) (Williams and others, 1990). Similar population trends are being experienced in many countries around the world. Although many natural processes and human factors are important in shaping coastal landforms, the one that exhibits the greatest influence is change in sea level in relation to the land surface (Table 2). The geologic record at many places around the world shows that sea level has varied by hundreds of meters over the distant geologic past. During the last 150,000 years alone, sea level has been as much as 130 m lower and 5 to 7 m higher than it is at present (Emery and Aubrey, 1991). Today, if all of the glacier ice on Earth were to melt, sea level would rise about 80 m, so the range in sea-level variation from maximum to minimum global glacier-ice volume is about 200 m (Williams and Hall, in press). As sea level has fluctuated in response to changes in the mass balance of glacial ice, coasts have eroded or accreted, seeking to achieve dynamic equilibrium between the land and the forces acting on it (National Research Council, 1990a).

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Table 2. Primary Geologic Factors Affecting Coastal Areas (Modified from Williams and others, 1991.)

During the past 20,000 years, sea level throughout the world has risen relative to the land at widely varying rates, and that rise continues in most regions today. The environmental stresses brought on by rates of current sea-level rise and by coastal development are likely to worsen if predictions of global climate change from greenhouse warming and associated accelerations in sea-level rise, due to glacial ice sheet melting and ocean warming, are accurate (Karpe and others, 1990; Warrick and Oerlemans, 1990). Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in the United States, affecting all 30 coastal states (Figure 1, Table 3), and along many coasts around the world (National Research Council, 1990). Most conflicts between man and nature can be reduced or the effects mitigated, however, if our understanding of coastal environments is increased by a good knowledge base of earth-science information. Such information should be incorporated into sound coastal planning and management policies for use in guiding long-term societal use and conservation of coastal resources. This paper summarizes sea-level changes that have occurred throughout the geologic and historical record to the present and the dramatic effects these changes exert on coastal environments around the world as illustrated in coastal Louisiana, U.S.A. The implications of present sea-level rise and potential future increases due to global climate change also are discussed. CHANGES IN SEA LEVEL The geologic record contains abundant evidence that sea level has changed frequently in the past and on scales of several hundred meters. Reasons for these changes encompass geologic processes as well as climatic factors. Tectonic movements of the Earth’s crust, including sea-floor spreading, alter the shapes of the ocean basins, thereby affecting their volumes and, consequently, their water depths. Ocean volume is also affected by changes

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Figure 1. Classification of annual shoreline change around the United States. (Modified from Dolan and others, 1985.)

in the volume of major continental ice sheets as well as thermal changes in ocean water (Table 4) (Titus, 1984; Warrick and Oerlemans, 1990). The largest and most rapid fluctuations of sea level have resulted from the waxing and waning of ice sheets in response to climatic changes; some evidence suggests cyclic major glaciations on time frequencies of about 100, 000 years. The last major mild interglacial period occurred about 130,000 years ago when sea level was 5 to 7 m higher than at present. It was followed by the Wisconsin or Würm glaciation, which began approximately 36,000 years ago and continued until about 20,000 years ago, at which time sea level was as much as 130 meters below its present position (Figure 2). Evidence of these major and even some minor cycles of glaciation/deglaciation and accompanying changes in sea level is found in a variety of sources worldwide, including raised and submerged shoreline features, river channels, and deltas; coral reefs; and ocean-floor sediments. Following the end of Wisconsin glaciation, sea level rose rapidly (average 8 to 10 mm/yr) until about 7,000 years ago, when it was approximately 10 m below its present position (Coleman, 1988). Since that time, sea-level rise has continued but at a considerably slower rate of to 1 to 2 mm/yr (Emery and Aubrey, 1991).

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Table 3. Rates of Shoreline Change for U.S. Coastal Regions and States (Modified from Dolan and others, 1985.)

* Negative values indicate erosion; positive values indicate accretion.

Another result of glaciation is overloading of the continents, which results in significant downwarping of the crust. When glaciers retreat, the depressed areas rebound due to isostatic adjustment. Rebounds of several hundred meters have occurred in northern Canada and Fennoscandia since Wisconsin glaciation, and rebounding continues in parts of the Northern Hemisphere but at reduced rates. In these regions, the net effect is often a drop in relative sea level. FACTORS AFFECTING RELATIVE SEA LEVEL Regional Variations Relative sea level is the difference between eustatic, or worldwide, change and local variations in land elevation. Depending upon geologic conditions, land-elevation changes can vary considerably in different

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Table 4. Best Estimates of Climate-Related Contributions to Eustatic Sea-Level Rise (12 to 15 cm) Over the Last 100 Years. (Modified from Warrick and Oerlemans, 1990.)

regions. Worldwide, subsidence of coastal regions is widespread, especially in areas which were marginal to glaciated areas and are now undergoing glacioisostatic adjustment (e.g., northern Europe, eastern North America), and in deltaic regions, which have experienced long and continuous sediment loading and down-warping. Bangkok, Venice, and regions of Egypt, Louisiana, Vietnam, and Bangladesh are examples of areas where deltaic subsidence due to sediment loading and compaction is a large component of relative sea-level rise. This fluctuation of sea level, at local and global scales, is one of several factors which determine whether coasts are stable, relative to sea level, or undergo erosion or accretion and at what temporal and spatial rates (Table 2). Physical Effects of Sea-Level Rise Sea-level rise has vastly different effects on coastlines around the world, depending on the long-term rates of sea-level change and on the geologic and geomorphic character and configuration of the coast. Cliff or headland stretches of coast composed of resistant rock are much less susceptible to the erosive effects of sea-level rise than are coral atoll islands and very flat,

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Figure 2. Curve of worldwide sea-level rise of 100 m during the past 20,000 years, based on radiocarbon dates from seven areas. (From National Research Council, 1987.)

low-relief coastal plains composed of unconsolidated sedimentary deposits, often comprising barrier spits and islands. Examples of these susceptible coastal features are common along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United States, the German-Dutch coast of the North Sea, parts of Great Britain on the English Channel, and numerous Pacific islands. As Table 2 shows, sea level is one of the main determinants of shoreline location. Erosion and inundation brought on by rising sea level generally cause coastline recession except in unusual instances where the recessionary trend is offset by glacio-isostatic rebound, tectonic uplift, or an abundance of sediment from rivers and erosion of adjacent coasts. Although progradation of the coast is possible with an abundance of sediment, examples of prograding coasts are rare. Most river-borne sediments are deposited in bays and estuaries prior to reaching the coast and manmade interferences on rivers (e.g., dams, channelization) have significantly reduced transport of sand-size sediments to the coast. Because the effects of sea-level rise are altered by factors such as regional differences in sand supply, coastal processes, and storm incidence, coastlines of the world vary greatly in their relative stability. At least 60 percent of sandy coastlines on a worldwide scale are undergoing erosion,

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10 percent are experiencing progradation, and the remaining 30 percent are relatively stable or have shown no consistent trends within historical times (Bird, 1985). Geologic indicators of prograding coasts consist of parallel sets of beach ridges, often topped by large dune fields; an erosional coast is characterized by wave-cut cliffs, scarped beach faces and dunes, and frequent occurrence of back-barrier peat deposits exposed and cropping out on lower parts of the foreshore, especially following storms. Often, coastlines exhibit compound features demonstrating trends that have reversed over the past several hundred to thousand years, such as formerly prograding coasts that are now stable or undergoing net erosion. Most coastlines have concave-upward profiles as a result of a quasiequilibrium between the sandy beach and the wave energy dissipated across the shore zone (Figure 3). When sea level rises, wave energy is shifted upward and landward, and the profile adjusts to the new conditions through erosion of sand from the beach and movement offshore to shoreface and

Figure 3. On a low-relief coast, a long-term rise in sea level causes disequilibrium between the coast and the processes acting on it, leading to shoreline erosion in addition to inundation. Erosion results in sand being moved from the beach to the offshore as well as alongshore. (From Schneider, 1989.)

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inner shelf regions. This process seems logical and relatively straightforward but in fact is often too simplistic to accurately predict actual beach profile changes which occur during rising sea level conditions (National Research Council, 1987). Historical Sea-Level Rise Careful mapping and analysis of shoreline and shelf features and sediments during the last several decades verify that large changes in sea level occurred during the Quaternary period (past 1.6 million years). For documenting sea-level changes that occurred more recently during the Holocene (past 10,000 years) transgression, radiocarbon dating of fossil marine shells and marsh vegetation is useful. Reconstructing coastal archaeological sites is providing critical information on relative sea-level change over the past 5, 000 years. Tide-gauge instruments were developed about 1875 to record automatically water level information useful in operating harbors and maintaining ship navigation. Data gathered by this continuous recording of water levels are useful for computing mean sea level, and for the past century, tide-gauge data have provided the most precise and geographically widespread information available on changes in relative sea level (Figure 4). Use of tide gauges is not without limitations. Only about 250 tide-gauge stations worldwide have sufficient periods of record to allow separation of the signal of long-term sea-level change from background noise (Emery and Aubrey, 1991). In addition, most of these stations are situated in the Northern Hemisphere and few are located on the open coast. Furthermore, tide-gauge data provide sea-level position relative to the land on which the station base is anchored, and the land may be rising or falling in elevation. Nevertheless, the quality, length of record, and volume of information in tide-gauge records make them the most useful and reliable source of data about historical changes in relative sea level (National Research Council, 1990). Using only selected tide-gauge records from stable areas around the world, several investigators have been able to filter out the contributions of crustal movement and obtain mean rates of eustatic sea-level change (National Research Council, 1987). Differences in how the data were analyzed and which gauges were used have yielded estimates varying from 11 to 30 cm rise during the past 100 years, but a consensus currently is that the mean rate of sea-level rise has been about 12 to 15 cm over the past 100 years, caused by thermal expansion of ocean water, melting of continental glaciers and small ice caps, and marginal melting of the

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Figure 4. Tide-gauge curves from Venice show annual and long-term rise in relative sea level From 1880 to 1980, relative sea level increased 24.5 cm. (From Pirazzoli, 1991.)

Greenland ice sheet (Warrick and Oerlemans, 1990). These historical rates are generally consistent with average rates derived from the geological record during the past 6,000 years (National Research Council, 1987; Warrick and Oerlemans, 1990). Human Influences As discussed previously, various geologic, climatic, and glaciologic factors are responsible for changes in sea level. However, during the 20th century —and especially during the past 50 years—man’s actions have contributed significantly to accelerating sea-level rise on a local scale (Table 2). These actions, consisting primarily of increasing the rates of ground subsidence and reducing the volume of sediments reaching the coast, can cause sudden (decadal time scales), substantial (several meters), and mostly irreversible rises in relative sea level. Well documented cases of human-induced subsidence are numerous in the scientific literature. A few of the more notable cases are discussed as follows. Long Beach Harbor, California: From the 1950’s to the late 1960’s, extraction of oil and gas from under Long Beach Harbor resulted in local land subsidence of nearly 9 m, submerging large parts of the harbor’s industrial area and threatening oil production facilities. To combat the

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problem, massive stone walls were constructed to dike out the sea, and many structures were elevated above sea level. Repressuring of the oil field finally halted the subsidence and even caused modest rebounding (Emery and Aubrey, 1991). The costs of diking the area and preserving the industrial facilities, however, exceeded $100 million (National Research Council, 1987). London, England: For more than 100 years, subsidence in the part of London adjacent to the Thames River has been associated with the pumping of ground water. Subsidence of over 20 cm, due to ground-water withdrawal, doubled the rate of local sea-level rise and led to construction of a tidal barrage across the Thames to protect low-lying parts of London during storm surge events. Venice, Italy: As in most cases where land subsidence is associated with river delta plains and often accelerated by ground-water extraction, Venice, sited on Italy’s Po River delta, experienced large-volume pumping from artesian wells from the early 1950’s to late 1960’s (Pirazzoli, 1991). The result was subsidence of more than 10 cm (Figures 4 and 5). Because the elevation of much of Venice was already at or near sea level, many historic buildings and valuable cultural arts were seriously threatened by inundation. When the city shifted to surface-water supplies in 1969, parts of the land under Venice began to undergo rebound, but Emery and Aubrey (1991) have suggested that recovery will amount to only about 20 percent of the total subsidence attributable to ground-water mining. THE LOUISIANA EXPERIENCE The State of Louisiana, which fronts the north-central Gulf of Mexico coast, is experiencing the most rapid and widespread coastal erosion and wetlands deterioration and loss of any region in the United States and possibly in the world. Long-term rates of barrier-island retreat average 4 m/ yr; as much as 30 m have been eroded during single storm events lasting only a few days. Eighty percent of the loss of tidal wetlands in the conterminous United States—an estimated 100 km2/yr—is occurring in Louisiana, which contains nearly one-half of the U.S. coastal wetlands (Penland and others, 1990). In 1985, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Louisiana Geological Survey, began comprehensive coastal studies of the Mississippi River deltaic plain to assess the rapid coastal erosion and wetlands loss taking place and to better understand the causes and processes responsible. As Figure 6 shows, the study area encompasses a 300-km-wide stretch of the coast and inner shelf from the Isles Dernieres, west of the Mississippi

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Figure 5. Venice, already flooded several times each year by storm surges, is threatened by continued subsidence and future accelerations in sea-level rise. (From Pirazzoli, 1991.)

River, to the Chandeleur Islands, east of the Mississippi River. The information base amassed since inception of the study includes digital shoreline and nearshore hydrographic data spanning the past 136 years, high-resolution geophysical profiles, a dense array of sediment samples and 12-m-long vibracores, a continuous 4-year record of storm effects on the barrier coast, and analyses of a suite of tide-gauge records from the past 50 years. Through analysis of this information, a clearer and more complete understanding of the processes responsible for coastal erosion and wetlands deterioration and loss in Louisiana has emerged (Williams and others, 1991). The deltaic plain is the product of continuous accumulation of sediments deposited by the Mississippi River and its distributaries during

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the past 7,000 years as sea level rose to within ±10 m of its present position (Coleman, 1988; Penland and others, 1988). Assembled as overlapping, stacked sequences of unconsolidated sands and muddy sediments, the deltaic plain is composed of six major delta complexes consisting of at least 18 smaller deltaic lobes (Penland and others, 1988). The spatial relationships of the four ancestral (Teche, Maringouin, LaFourche, St. Bernard) and two active deltas (Atchafalaya, Modern) are shown in Figure 6. The geologic processes controlling deltaic plain development require relatively stable sea level and consist of establishment of a prodelta platform in shallow water followed by progradation of the delta and bifurcation of the main distributary channel. The delta construction phase continues until the channel becomes so distended that it is no longer hydraulically efficient. Channel shifting and, ultimately, abandonment of the old distributary channel occur in favor of the shorter, more efficient course to the coast. Cut off from its riverine sediment source, the abandoned delta undergoes long-term subsidence by compaction of the underconsolidated sediments at rates that are a function of sediment thickness. Marine coastal processes then erode, winnow, and rework the seaward margin of the abandoned delta. Sandy headlands and barrier beaches and spits result from the reworking process and continue to undergo transgressive submergence, the result being segmented barrier islands separated by tidal inlets and backed by shallow bays and lagoons (Penland and others, 1988). Along with periodic (±1,000 years) shifts in the course of the Mississippi River, sea-level rise also has been a dominant influence on the development of the Louisiana deltaic plain region. From a maximum low stand at depths of −130 m at the end of the Pleistocene epoch, sea level rose rapidly (>2 cm/yr) in the early Holocene to about −10 m by 7,500 years ago (Coleman, 1988; Penland and others, 1988). Since the middle Holocene, relative sea level has continued to rise, primarily due to compactional subsidence of the thick (>100 m) Holocene sediments that filled the ancestral river valleys. Analyzing an array of tide-gauge records, Penland and Ramsey (1990) have demonstrated that relative sea-level rise across the entire delta plain exceeds 1 cm/yr and is considerably greater than that in adjacent areas of the coast (Figure 7). Comparison with the mean eustatic rise of about 0.12 cm/yr suggests that, on average, the subsidence component accounts for approximately 80 percent of the relative sea-level rise. As a result, south-central Louisiana is experiencing rates of relative sea-level rise almost 10 times greater than the world average.

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Figure 6. The Louisiana delta plain, composed of a series of six deltaic lobes, resulted from continuous sediment deposition during shifts of the Mississippi River over the past 7,000 years. (From Frazier, 1967.)

To deal with the widespread land loss in Louisiana, Federal and Louisiana State agencies are implementing $30 million worth of plans in 1992. Recommendations in a master plan include diversions of Mississippi River fresh-water and sediment into wetlands, restoration of barrier islands, creation of wetlands from dredge spoils, stabilization of banks and channels, and marsh and delta management. ESTIMATES OF FUTURE MEAN SEA-LEVEL RISE The past decade has seen growing worldwide concern that the increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases from usage of fossil fuels could enhance greenhouse warming and raise the Earth’s mean surface air temperature 1.5° to 4.5°C (National Research Council, 1987; Warrick and Oerlemans, 1990). The environmental consequences of such temperature increases would be significant. A best-estimate temperature increase of 2–3°C would approximate the mean temperature at the peak of the last interglacial stage and would likely cause a significant rise in eustatic sea level due to the factors listed in Table 4. According to Warrick and Oerlemans (1990), the

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Figure 7. Histograms of tide-gauge records from three regions along the Louisiana coast show wide variations in the rise of relative sea level, dependent upon geologic conditions controlling rates of subsidence.

combination of thermal expansion of the ocean mass and melting of grounded glaciers and ice caps have been the major causes of eustatic sealevel rise over the last century. Wastage of Greenland’s ice sheets has contributed somewhat, but lack of field survey data hampers precise measures of past contributions or estimates for the future. Determining the role of Antarctica is extremely difficult, but consensus seems to be that a near balance exists between snow accumulation and wastage at the margins. Climate warming over the next 100 years is actually likely to increase snowfall in Antarctica; thus, Antarctica is not thought to be a significant contributor to rise in sea level. The U.S. National Research Council (NRC) in 1987 evaluated various research studies predicting possible sea-level rise due to climate warming to the year 2100 and concluded that, with the considerable uncertainties, three scenarios were possible. In 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) evaluated more recent data and research results and suggested three scenarios somewhat lesser in magnitude (Warrick and Oerlemans, 1990).

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Figure 8 shows the NRC and IPCC estimates to the year 2100 and the mean rise rate of 12 cm over the past century. The NRC best estimate is 1 m while the IPCC’s best-estimate forecast is 0.66 m. Although the spread in these estimates is great and the rate of future rise is uncertain, the conclusion is clear—sea level will continue to rise and at rates considerably higher than current rates or those over the last 100 years. IMPLICATIONS FOR COASTAL-ZONE PLANNING As sea level rises in the future, coastal plain areas and low-lying islands around the world will be affected by increased flooding, shoreline erosion, and wetlands loss (Figure 9). Predicting the extent, magnitude, and severity of sea-level rise and its effects on the shore and on coastal development is full of uncertainties, but planning for such economic and environmental impacts should be a high priority for all coastal countries (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1991). Three strategies to deal with future sea-level rise are possible. These methods to deal with erosion and flooding include (1) hard-engineering structures (e.g., dikes, levees, seawalls) designed to protect development landward of the shoreline, (2) erosion mitigation techniques that closely replicate natural shore environments (e.g., beach nourishment, dune creation, shoreline restoration), and (3) retreat from the shoreline by abandoning structures and relocating communities (National Research Council, 1987). Each of these scenarios is technically possible, and the appropriate governmental responses should be determined after carefully evaluating a combination of social, economic, geographic, and environmental factors. Because the first two methods involve expensive construction and maintenance and because the third will not be popular, it seems reasonable to develop setback lines for undeveloped coasts and discourage future development as soon as possible. Dealing effectively with present coastal problems of erosion, wetlands loss, flooding, and subsidence and resolving future conflicts caused by increased sea-level rise will require a combination of coastal zone management and engineering solutions. Because sea-level rise and other consequences of climatic change will affect the world population for many centuries, the methods chosen by each country to address its problems should be based on long-term societal needs and on sound scientific and technical knowledge rather than on emotional responses to short-term desires. Scientific investigations of the Earth’s systems, coastal processes, and possible effects of climatic change on sea level are important, and the

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Figure 8. Sea-level rise scenarios for possible climate change as suggested by the NRC (1987) and the IPCC (Warrick and Oerlemans, 1990).

results of these studies must be effectively transferred to coastal planners, engineers, managers, and, most important, to political decisionmakers and to the public. Only when these diverse groups have the necessary baseline information and understand the range of choices, the total costs (social, economic, and environmental), and the risks associated with each choice can prudent decisions be made on when and how to deal with coastal problems. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Examination of the geologic record from the Quaternary period provides conclusive evidence that sea level has varied greatly, primarily responding to climatic changes that caused cyclic worldwide glaciations (sea-level lows) and mild periods of nonglaciation (sea-level highs). The range of sea-level fluctuation has been from −130 m to +7 m during the past 150,000 years.

Figure 9. Darkend coastal areas depict regions vulnerable to erosion and inundation due to projected rising relative sea levels. Many low-latitude islands, not shown on this small-scale map, are also vulnerable. (Modified from Emery and Aubrey, 1991.)

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There is scientific consensus that, throughout the last 10,000 years, sea level has undergone a long-term rise but at widely varying rates and subject to short-term fluctuations. Also, sea-level rise has been slow but continuous during the past 3,000 years, and analyses of tide-gauge records worldwide indicate that eustatic sea level has risen about 12 cm during the last century. In many places around the world, coastal subsidence contributes to eustatic rates by as much as a factor of 10, yielding much higher rates of relative sea-level rise. The past record of sea-level change in response to climatic and geologic processes and the results from models predicting future climate under the influences of the greenhouse effect indicate that, during the next century, eustatic sea level probably will rise at greater rates relative to the present. A total rise of 31 to 110 cm is possible, the rates being greater in future decades than in the near future. The current best estimate is a 66-cm rise over the next 100 years (Warrick and Oerlemans, 1990). Future sea-level rise and possible increases in coastal storm frequency and severity will result in increased coastal erosion and inundation, loss and deterioration of tidal wetlands, and saltwater intrusion into fresh ground-water aquifers. Broad options available to respond to these sealevel changes include: • Construction of hard-engineering structures to armor the coast. • Use of beach nourishment and shoreline restoration to stabilize the shoreline. • Accommodation and incremental retreat of human development from the coast Although increased sea-level rise and associated land loss are highly probable during the next century, many details are still unknown. Planning for future rise should be incorporated into coastal management activities to minimize the disruption to society; establishing and implementing setbacks for coastal development are reasonable, but emergency measures to combat future rise are not yet necessary. Decisions on managing coastal resources and dealing with impacts of sea-level rise on development should be based on current scientific knowledge, and emphasis should be placed on increasing research into coastal processes and on acquiring additional long-term data on the global ice-mass budget and on worldwide sea-level change and its effects on coastal geomorphology. Information resulting from these research efforts should be communicated worldwide to minimize future impacts of climate change and sea-level rise.

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In conclusion, the IPCC Response Strategies Working Group (IPCC, 1991) for Coastal Zone Management included some of the above in their 10 recommendations, which are worth repeating: 1. By the year 2000, coastal nations should implement coastal zone management plans. 2. High-risk coastal areas should be mapped and assessed. 3. Future sea-level rise should be factored into plans for coastal development to reduce future vulnerability. 4. Plans for emergency preparedness for coastal storms should be strengthened and include future climate change. 5. An international focus on the effects of sea-level rise should be augmented. 6. Technical assistance should be provided to coastal nations in developing plans to deal with sea-level rise and other effects of climate change. 7. International cooperation and education is needed to limit population growth and development in coastal regions. 8. Research on understanding and predicting the impacts of climate change on sea-level rise should be strengthened. 9. A global ocean and coastline-observing network should be implemented. 10. Data and information on climate change and sea-level rise should be widely disseminated and available for preparation of coastal management plans. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Appreciation is extended to James Devine, Richard Williams, John Gray, and Curtis Larson of the U.S. Geological Survey for their constructive technical reviews and to Helana Cichon for assistance in preparing the paper. REFERENCES Bird, E.C., 1985, Coastline changes-a global review, Chichester: J.Wiley, Interscience, 219 p. Coleman, J.M., 1988, Dynamic changes and processes in the Mississippi River delta: Geological Society of America Bulletin, v. 100, p. 999–1015. Culliton, T.J., Warren, M .A., Goodspeed, T.R., Remer, D.G., Blackwell, C.M., and McDonough, J.J., III, 1990, 50 years of population change along the

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Nation’s coasts 1960–2012: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Second Report of a Coastal Trend Series, 41 p. Dolan, R., Anders, F., and Kimball, S., 1985, Coastal Erosion and Accretion, in U.S. Geological Survey National Atlas: Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Va. Emery, K.O. and Aubrey, D.G., 1991, Impact of sea-level/land-level change on society, in Sea Levels, Land Levels, and Tide Gauges: New York, SpringerVerlag, p. 167–174. Frazier, D.E., 1967, Recent deposits of the Mississippi River, their development and chronology: Transactions of the Gulf Coast Association of Geological Societies, v. 17, p. 287–311. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1991, Climate change-IPCC response strategies: Washington, D.C., Island Press, 272 p. Karpe, H.-J., Otten, D., and Trinidade, S.C., eds., 1990, Climate and development, overview: report of the Hamburg Congress: New York, Springer-Verlag, p. 3–14. National Research Council, Committee on Engineering Implications of Changes in Relative Mean Sea Level, 1987, Responding to changes in sea level-engineering implications: Washington, D.C., National Academy Press, 148 p. National Research Council, Geophysics Study Committee, 1990a, Sea level change: Washington, D.C., National Academy Press, 234 p. National Research Council, Committee on Coastal Erosion Zone Management, 1990b, Managing coastal erosion: Washington, D.C., National Academy Press, 182 p. Penland, S., Boyd, R., and Suter, J.R., 1988, Transgressive depositional systems of the Mississippi delta plain—a model for barrier shoreline and shelf sand development: Journal of Sedimentary Petrology, v. 58(6), p. 932–949. Penland, S. and Ramsey, K.E., 1990, Relative sea-level rise in Louisiana and the Gulf of Mexico: Journal of Coastal Research, v. 6(2), p. 323–342. Penland, S., Roberts, H.H., Williams, S J., Sallenger, A.H., Jr., Cahoon, D.R., Davis, D.W., and Groat, C.G., 1990, Coastal land loss in Louisiana: Gulf Coast Association of Geological Societies, Transaction of the 40th Annual Meeting, p. 685–699. Pirazzoli, P.A., 1991, Possible defenses against a sea-level rise in the Venice area, Italy: Journal of Coastal Research, v. 7, no. 1, p. 231–248. Schneider, S.H., 1989, Global warming, are we entering the greenhouse century?: San Francisco, CA, Sierra Club Books, 317 p. Titus, J.G. and Barth, M.C., 1984, An overview of the causes and effects of sea level rise, in Barth, M.C., and Titus, J.G., eds., Greenhouse Effect and Sea level Rise, A Challenge for This Generation: New York, Van Nostrand Reinhold Company, Inc., p. 1–56. Warrick, R. and Oerlemans, J., 1990, Sea-level rise, in Houghton, J.T., Jenkins, G.J., and Ephraums, J.J., eds., Climate Change—Intergovernmental Panel on

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Climate Change scientific assessment: Cambridge, U.K., University Press, p. 257–281. Williams, R.S., Jr. and Hall, D.K., in press, Glaciers, in Gurney, R.J., Foster, J.L., and Parkinson, C.L., eds., Global Change Atlas: Cambridge University Press. Williams, S.J., Dodd, K., and Gohn, K.K., 1990, Coasts in crisis: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1075, 32 p. Williams, S.J., Penland, S., Sallenger, A.H., Jr., McBride, R.A., and Kindinger, J.L., 1991, Geologic controls on the formation and evolution of Quaternary coastal deposits of the northern Gulf of Mexico: American Society of Civil Engineers, Coastal Sediments ’91, v. 1, p. 1082–1095.

IMPACT OF OCEAN CIRCULATION ON REGIONAL AND GLOBAL CHANGE ANDRE GUILCHER University of Western Brittany and URA 904 CNRS BP 814, 29285, Brest, France

ABSTRACT Regulation of ocean circulation by wind is first reminded, exemplified by the circumpolar current in the Southern Ocean. Then, impacts of the ocean on climatic events are described, particularly in the Southeast Atlantic and in the South Pacific with ENSO, with a discussion bearing on processes. Other cases in the Arctic and in the North Atlantic Seas show the progress and efficiency of cooperation programmes in that field. Possible practical results in management may be expected. INTRODUCTION Before discussing the topic of this lecture, it is necessary to examine briefly in which way the ocean circulation is regulated by the atmosphere, in other words, to remind how the dynamics of the marine surface currents are a result of the wind field acting over the oceans, the deflection by the earth’s rotation or Coriolis force being taken into account, this deflection being on the right-hand side in the north hemisphere and on the left-hand side to the south of the equator. The shape of oceans and continents is of course essential, and, if the North Atlantic is considered, the trade winds thus determine a southwesterly current—the so-called Canary current— off Western Africa, and the westerly winds result, on higher latitudes, in the Gulf Stream extension. This combination of winds and currents was essential to allow the success of the first voyage of Colombus, whatever

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may be the part of chance and of knowledge in its utilization of the natural forces. WIND MODELLING CURRENT The circumpolar current as an example The causal relation between wind and current, and its modalities, is best exemplified by the circumpolar current in the Southern Ocean (figure 1). It is well known from many expeditions that this current is the most powerful one in the world, as a result of the unique absence of continental barriers at these latitudes, and the possibility of an easterly water flow running all around the world under the influence of the westerly winds. In spite of the stormy weather, it is one of the best known oceanic areas, in which most sophisticated techniques have been used, especially during the International Southern Ocean Studies Program (ISOS), 1975–1980, synthesized in Park (1): a good example of an international cooperation: precise measurements at depth in the Drake Passage between America and Antarctica, in connection with fine spatial resolution hydrological stations; very numerous drifting buoys followed by ARGOS satellite observations in all current areas (fig. 2). The flow across the Drake Passage is evaluated at 130 sverdrups (millions of cubic metres per second) with a range of 120– 140, and not very different results in other areas (118 at 66°30’E, 125–139 between New Zealand and Antarctica, etc). Data have been obtained on the spatio-temporal variability (especially high downstream of ridges and in convergence areas), on the size of the meanders. Maximal variability, occuring in the Drake Passage, is 95 to 158 sv. Emphasis has been made by Gordon (3) on the spatial and temporal variability, with special consideration of the Weddell Gyre, east of the Antarctic Peninsula, where these variations may be a primary factor in the changes in the biology. This remark shows that such studies have large practical impacts. Changes in climatic factors Changes in climatic factors and their impact on oceanic circulation can also be precised and may help to forecast changes in the currents. In the North Atlantic, the eastward extension of the Gulf Stream provides an example in Rui Xin Huang (4). At the end of Winter, if a cold air at about 0°C flows over the narrow front region of the current, all the moving water in the upper layer sinks to the lower layer and mixes vertically with

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Fig. 1. Water transport in the Southern Ocean. After Kort in Dietrich et al., (2), modified. Transport of 20 sverdrups between two lines.

it. The horizontal momentum to the east is thus transported downward during the convective adjustment. In addition, the process creates at middle depth a low potential vorticity water mass. After geostrophic adjustment, water moves southward and creates a high pressure center to the south and a low pressure center to the north. These two pressure centers drive strong recirculations both south and north of the stream, eastward in the north and westward in the south. Although cooling is restricted to late Winter, the pressure centers built by it can persist for a long time. The same process is expected to occur in the Kuroshio extension.

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Fig. 2. Tracts of drifting buoys over the Southern Ocean, 1978–1979. A few ones only are shown. From Park, (2).

IMPACTS OF OCEAN ON LARGE DISTURBANCES Conversely, changes in ocean circulation can result in climatic modifications on regional or larger scales, and we are there in the main topic of this paper. The Benguella current An excellent regional example can be found in shifts of the Benguella current, Southeast Atlantic, and its effects on the climate of the coast of

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Fig. 3 A. Positive zonal component of wind, March/April. Angola south coast dry. (After Hirst and Hastenrath)

South Angola (5 and 6). Usually, this northwesterly cold current, resulting from the trade winds which determine an upwelling of the subsurface cold water, prevents almost completely any rainfall in the adjacent coastal area (less than 20 mm per year between Tombua, formerly Porto Alexandre, and the mouth of Cunene River at the Namibian border). However, it happens sometimes that heavy occasional rainfalls occur during the austral Summer, especially in March: 23 mm were thus recorded in a single day in march 1970 at Baia dos Tigres. From investigations on the interannual variations in the atmospheric and oceanic fields over the South Tropical Atlantic, Hirst and Hastenrath (6) have shown that the atmospheric-oceanic departure patterns on MarchApril are inverse during dry and wet periods on the southern coast of Angola: dry (normal) situations correspond with zonal winds (fig. 3 A) and negative temperatures (fig. 4 A), whereas wet (anomalous) situations correspond with meridional winds (fig. 3 B) and positive temperatures (fig. 4 B). On the other hand, Portuguese investigations in South Angola by Dias (7), supported by Russian surveys (Moroshkin, 8) and discussed by Guilcher (5), lead to the conclusion that, outside the coastal area where cold surface waters result from upwelling, warmer waters are found farther offshore where they are carried from the North by a so-called Angola current (fig. 5). It could thus be assumed that the exceptional rains recorded in March at Baia dos Tigres derive from temporary landward shifts of the Angola current replacing or reducing the coastal upwelling. The satellite imagery, as recorded at CNES, Lannion, Brittany, shows situations in which the Benguella current is actually pressed back by warm water flowing southeastwards.

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Fig. 3 B. Positive meridional component of wind. March/April . Angola south coast wet. (After Hirst and Hastenrath)

Fig 4 A. Sea surface temperature negative departure, March/April. Angola south coast dry. (After Hirst and Hastenrath)

These results are interesting in terms of management, since they seem to give possibilities of short range prediction of rainy events on the south Angola coast, hence prevention of flood effects, etc. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Yet, the South Angola events are a small phenomenon if compared with those occurring in the South Pacific and known as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), even if these two events display a parallelism and dose similarities. El Nino is much better known and studied in its effects on a much larger scale and area, and rises larger problems of causality and oceanatmosphere connection. The “normal” El Nino is a southward, warm coastal current flowing periodically along the northern coast of Peru, and appearing in Christmas

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Fig. 4 B. Sea surface temperature positive departure, March/April. Angola south coast wet. (After Hirst and Hastenrath)

time, hence its name, El Nino being the Christ child. This current replaces seasonally the cold waters of the Peru or Humboldt current, a counterpart of the Benguella current in Angola, resulting similarly from upwelling through the influence of the trade winds. Although El Nino occurs seasonally and normally at Christmas, it is subject to very large variations in intensity and duration from year to year, so that the sense of the term El Nino has now been more or less changed by the scientists to apply to the dramatic events associated with the years of great intensity and duration. These events (fig. 6) occur at about four years intervals as an average, but stronger events have been recorded at longer intervals, particularly in 1891, and recently in 1982–83: this last even has been studied with the greatest accuracy and commented in a huge number of papers, especially in Glynn editor (9); see also Rasmusson (10), Cane (11), Guilcher (12). Such an event is coupled with the whole South Pacific pressure system, hence the name of El Nino Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, has been adopted. Figure 7 shows associated disturbances occuring in sea surface as far West as Australia. Moreover, as early as the beginning of this century, Walker (13), director of the Indian Observatories, has attempted to establish a correlation between fluctuations of the Indian monsoon and the Nino events; and it is presently accepted that the ENSO events concern at least the area comprised between Peru and Indonesia, with a decreased rainfall in and around Indonesia, and an increased rainfall in the Central and Eastern Pacific and coastal regions of South America. On Figure 7 B and C are shown, for the area comprised between 100ºE and 100ºW, i.e. between Sumatra Island and Peru, the changes in sea surface temperature recorded during normal and exceptional ENSO, and disturbing the normal temperature pattern found on Figure 7 A. The western extension of the

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Fig. 5. Temperatures at 10m depth off South Angola in March 1971 (austral summer). Angola warm current offshore, colder water (residual Benguela current) nearshore. After Dias, (7).

1982–1983 ENSO has been especially striking in its effects on sea level shifts (Figure 8). At Santa Cruz, Galapagos Islands, a station which is quite significant for the Peru coast, the sea level evolution reflected closely the evolution (rise) of the sea surface temperature, with a peak of 44 centimetres in early January 1983. At Jarvis Island in the Central Equatorial Pacific, the sea level rose to reach a peak of 30 centimetres during the second half of 1982, and fell a little below normal during the rise in the Galapagos Islands. At Nauru Island, Western Pacific, the sea level reached positive values well before Jarvis, and fell deeply as soon as December 1982, i.e. during the main peak at Santa Cruz.

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Fig. 6. ENSO events from 1939 to 1983, after Rasmusson (10) and Cane (11) in Guilcher (12). —: variation of SST (sea surface temperature) in degrees centigrade at Puerto Chicama, Peru significant for Nino. ......: difference of atmospheric pressure at sea level between Darwin, Australia, and Tahiti Island significant for ENSO. Major events are shaded.

At the same time, whereas the Phoenix and Line Islands in the Central Equatorial Pacific are usually dry, exceptional rainfalls accompanied there the 1982–1983 ENSO: at Christmas Island, 530 mm were recorded from August to October 1982, while the mean rainfall in these months is 74 mm (15). The Tuamotu and Society Islands were struck from December 1982 to April 1983 by a series of six hurricanes of exceptional force, with giant waves 8 to 10 metres high washing the atolls and destroying at Tikehau Atoll corals over 13 millions of square metres, i.e. 80 per cent of the outer slope (16). It is well known since a long time that the exceptional Ninos result, on the Peru coast, in a massive mortality of fishes (principally anchovies), hence a glut of rotten carcases in the coastal waters, and a migration of sea birds deprived of their usual food. But the 1982–1983 ENSO extended widely its biological affects to the Central Equatorial Pacific, with a disappearance of pelagic fishes around the Line Islands, and a correlative departure of birds (15). The disturbance of the normal climatic succession had effects on terrestrial forests, with an unusual dry season affecting the semideciduous forest in Central Panama, and, on the other side of the

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Fig. 7. Sea surface temperature distribution in C along the Equatorial Pacific (L: low H: high) , after Cane (11) in Guilcher (12).

ocean, droughts afflicting East Borneo in Sabah and Kalimantan, where rainfall was one third the average over a ten-month period (Egbert et al. in Glynn editor, 9). Even in the northern hemisphere, deleterious impacts occurred simultaneously with the 1982–1983 ENSO. “The unusual winds in the Tropical Pacific coincided with a deepening of the Aleutian low pressure center in the North Pacific… This resulted in unusually strong westerly winds and a series of severe storms at unusually low latitudes in the subtropical North Pacific, with severe coastal erosion and damage to facilities”. D.V.Hansen, in Glynn editor (9), who relates these events,

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Fig. 8. Variation of sea level (heights in cm) at three islands in the Western, Central, and Eastern Equatorial Pacific during 1981–1983 ENSO. After data in Lucas et al., 1984 (14).

notes, however, that they were not necessarily due to the ENSO. It is a matter of discussion indeed to determine to what extent ENSO results in large atmosphere and oceanic disturbances outside the Equatorial and South Tropical Pacific. Andrade and Sellers (17) have found a positive correlation between ENSO and rainfall in Arizona and New Mexico during Spring and Autumn, but not during Winter or Summer, perhaps (or probably) because ENSO is only one element among others. The distant influence of ENSO remains thus a matter of discussion. Succession of processes in ENSO A major problem is, of course, to determine whether the initial impulse of ENSO is to be found in the atmosphere or in the ocean. Bjerknes (18) thought that it is the atmosphere which determines what he calls a

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“Walker circulation”, because he thinks that fluctuations in such a wind circulation are responsible for the Southern Oscillation: an abnormal amount of cold, dry air transferred from south to north along the Peru coast by the trade winds flows along the equator towards the Western Pacific, whence it comes back at high altitude, after warming and moistening by the ocean, to sink into the Eastern Pacific: hence the abnormal, strong Nino, which would thus derive from abnormally strong trade winds. Although Wyrtki (19) has suggested a rather different process, he thought also that the succession of events is initially due to atmosphere forcing, and other papers reviewed by Lockwood (20) arrive generally to similar conclusions. Attempts have been made by Cane et al. (21) and Schopf et al. (22) to obtain a prediction one or two years in advance; it may be hoped that the international cooperation in the Pacific will be able to reach this target in the understanding of large scale changes. The case of the Norwegian and Greenland Seas Another area where the international cooperation is typical is the Norwegian and Greenland Seas and their connections with the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans. Since the pioneer investigations carried out by the Norwegians in the early beginning of this century (Helland-Hansen et al., 23) , the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas (ICES) has coordinated the research on the distribution and variations of the temperatures and salinities, in support of the fisheries, so active in this nordic area. A recent achievement has been the so-called Deep Water Project, carried out in 1981–1982 by a group of American, Canadian, German, Icelandic and Norwegian oceanographers, with the main results published by Clarke ed. (24). The formation of the Greenland Sea deep water was precised, with evidence of separate circulation patterns in each of the deep basins, and precisions on the duration of deep convection and relation with winter air temperature. The investigations were extended to the connection with the Arctic Ocean (Figure 9). A particular attention has been paid to the connection of the Norwegian Basin with the North Atlantic over the Scotland-Iceland submarine ridge. Dietrich (25) has demonstrated that the Norwegian Sea dense deep water can flow intermittently over the ridge, and can be, after mixing, an essential element of the Atlantic deep water. Its way across the complicated topography of the North Atlantic has been followed by Harvey et al. (26), who have shown that a main way of its spreading is the Charlie-Gibbs fracture zone, and the amount of transport has been precised (Figure 10).

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Fig. 9. Example of international survey in the Norwegian Sea, 1972–1984, with three ships in eight expeditions. Simplified after Heinze et al. in Clarke(24)

These studies have thrown a new light on the general circulation in the deep Atlantic, with some modifications in the classic scheme due to Wüst and the German expedition of Vermessungsschiff “Meteor” in the twenties.

Fig. 10. Norwegian Sea outflow water over the Scotland-Iceland ridge and through the Charlie-Gibbs fracture zone (CGFZ) after Harvey and Theodorou (26) Figures in sverdrups.

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Fig. 11. Significant sounds (straits) between the Arctic Ocean and Baffin Bay.

The Canadian outlet of the Arctic Ocean Still another area where variations in sea water circulation can be an element to the understanding of climatic changes is the connection between the Arctic Ocean and the Baffin Bay, hence the North Atlantic (Figure 11), which consists of three sounds or straits across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: the Barrow, Jones and Smith Sounds. The water transport is eastwards, resulting form a sea level difference between the Arctic Ocean and the Baffin Bay. Current mater measurements made in 1981–1983 (Prinsenbere et al., 27) in the Barrow Sound have shown that the volume transport through that strait has an annual mean of 0.5 sv. and varies seasonally from 0.2 sv. in January to 1.0 in August. From other observations, the total outflow of Arctic water through the three passages is evaluated at 0.9 sv. in Winter and 3.8 sv. in Summer for 1981–1982, that is, a significant contribution to the total volume of outflow of the Arctic estimated to be 9.4 sv. The continuation of these investigations will be worthwile because of possible impact on climate of changes in water and heat transport. A case of combined investigations in the North Atlantic Combined studies on the oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic are not confined to the Gulf Stream itself; they also extend to adjacent areas. Such

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is the Polymode Dynamics Experiment (28), carried out by a team of American laboratories during two months (15 May-15 July 1978), in an area 200 km wide centered on 31°05’N-69°30’W, off Georgia, West of the Sargasso Sea. An interesting topic consisted in the study of small rings, less than 50 km in diameter. It was found that these rings belong to various types; they derive partly at least, from the meanders formed in the Gulf Stream, but their cores can derive initially from areas as different as the Labrador Sea and the Caribbean region. Such results can have an impact in climatology, and, perhaps, explain unexpected peculiarities in the influence of the North Atlantic on the climate of Western Europe. The use of remote sensing Investigations on the oceanic circulation will certainly increase their efficiency in using remote sensing. A recent example is provided by results of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in surface transport estimates for the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio extensions (Chang Kou Tai, 29). The method has been based on 25 tracks of Geosat distributed over the four seasons. After these currents have left the coastal waters in their eastward course, both have a surface strength of the order of 90 sv.; they continue to be fed downstream until a maximum of the order of 130 sv. is reached, near 150°E for the Kuroshio and 63ºW for the Gulf Stream. Then the Gulf Stream decays slowly, with 128 sv. at 55°W, while the Kuroshio decays much faster, with 68 sv. near 165°E. These results compare well with those derived from classic methods, but are obtained at much lower costs. They suggest the existence of a seasonal cycle in the intensity of both currents, with a minimum in Winter and a maximum in Autumn. The connection between atmosphere and ocean is thus precised. CONCLUSION This review, which has been selected to some typical examples, shows that the modern study of the oceanic circulation, quite often carried out in international cooperation with multiship surveys, seems to be able to precise more and more the connections between ocean and atmosphere, with interaction of both sources and energy. The case of the South Pacific and South Atlantic Ninos is particularly promising for short range prediction of changes in climate on the nearby coasts and improvement of the management of these areas. The International Council of Scientific Unions, founded in 1931, has been and will continue to be an essential

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instrument of cooperation on global environment between states and disciplines (30). REFERENCES 1. 2. 3.

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Park, Y.H., Synthèse sur les caractères physiques du courant circumpolaire antarctique. Ann. Hydrogr., 1989, 5e ser., 16, 7–32. Dietrich, G., Kalle, K., Krauss, W. and Siedler, G., Allgemeine Meesreskunde, Berlin and Stuttgart, 1975, 3rd ed., p. 455. Gordon, A.L., Spatial and temporal variability within the Southern Ocean. In Antarctic Ocean and resources variability, ed. Sahrlage, Springer Verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg, 1988, pp. 41–56. Rui Xin Huang, Does atmosphere cooling drive the Gulf Stream circulation? I. Phys. Oceanogr., 1983, 13, 1146–1157. Guilcher, A., Problèmes climatico-océanographiques du désert côtier d’Angola, particulièrement à la baie des Tigres (16°35°S). Norois, 1982, 29, 507–517. Hirst, A.C. and Hastenrath, S., Atmosphere-ocean mechanisms of climate anomalies in the Angola tropical atlantic sector, I. Phys. Oceanogr., 1983, 13, 1146–1157. Dias, C.A., Preliminary report on the physical oceanography off South Angola, March and July 1971. Internat.Com. Southeast Atlantic Fisheries, FAO, Rome, mimeogr., 1972, 15 p. Moroshkin, K.V., Bubnov, V.A. and Bulatov, R.P., Water circulation in the Eastern South Atlantic Ocean, Oceanology, 1970, 10, 1, 27–34. Glynn, P.W., editor, Global ecological consequences of the 1982–83 El Nino Southern Oscillation, Elsevier Oceanogr. Ser. 52, 553 pp. Rasmusson, E.M., El Nino and variations in climate, Am. Sci., 1985, 73, 168–177. Cane, M.A., El Nino, Ann. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 1986, 14, 43–70. Guilcher, A., Ocean et atmosphère: le cas du Nino et de son homologue sudatlantique, Climats et Climatologie, Pagney commemorative volume, Dijon, 1988, 243–249. Walker, G.T., Correlation in seasonal variations of weather, IX: a further study of world weather, Mem.India Meteorol. Depart., 1924, 24, part 9, 275–332. Lucas , R., Hayes, S.P. and Wyrtki, K., Equatorial sea level response during the 1982–1983 El Nino, I. Geophys. Res., 1984, 89 (6), 10425–10430. Doumenge, F., Déséquilibres climatiques et catastrophes dans le Pacifique intertropical, juillet 1982—avril 1983, Ann. de Géogr., 1983, 92, 403–413. Laboute, P., Evaluation des dégâts causés par les passages des cyclones de 1982– 1983 en Polynésie Française sur les pentes externes des atolls de Tikehau et de Takapoto (Tuamotus), Proc. 5th Internat. Coral Reef Congr, Tahiti, 1985, 3, 323– 329.

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THE IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON CORAL REEFS AND REEF ISLANDS Eric C.F.Bird University of Melbourne, Australia

ABSTRACT The global sea level rise forecast as a consequence of the enhanced Greenhouse Effect and global warming is expected to revive coral growth on intertidal reef flats. Evidence from studies of upward growth of coral reefs during the Late Quaternary marine transgression, between 18,000 and 6,000 years ago, from measurements of coral growth, from biogeochemical budgets, and from coral responses on submerging parts of tilting and subsiding reefs suggest that a slow sea level rise (