Nature, Society, and Marginality: Case Studies from Nepal, Southeast Asia and other regions (Perspectives on Geographical Marginality, 8) 9783031213243, 9783031213250, 3031213246

Table of contents :
Preface
Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
Contributors
Part I: Introduction
Chapter 1: Natural Disasters, Marginal Regions, and Labour Migration
Part II: Human Interference and Natural Systems
Chapter 2: Environmental Unsustainability or the Cost of Civilization
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Humans, Risks and Nature
2.3 Living with Risks
2.4 Natural Hazards in the Swiss Alps
2.4.1 Examples
2.4.2 Discussion
2.4.3 Lessons to Be Learnt
2.5 Who Bears the Costs?
2.5.1 Cost Externalization: Neglecting the Environment
2.5.2 Costs in Swiss Mountains
2.6 Out of Sight – Out of Mind
2.7 Conclusion
References
Chapter 3: Climate Change and Health Impacts on Vulnerable Communities: The Case of Kala-Azar (Visceral Leishmaniasis) in Nepal
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Data and Methods
3.3 Results and Analysis
3.3.1 Geographic Regions and Climatic Seasons
3.3.2 Climate Change and Extreme Climate Trends
3.3.3 Climate Sensitive Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases in Nepal
3.3.4 Origin and Distribution of Kala-Azar (Visceral Leishmaniasis) in Nepal
3.3.5 Risk Factors for Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL)
3.3.6 Control Measures
3.4 Discussion
3.5 Conclusion
References
Chapter 4: Cryosphere Changes, Cascading Disasters, and Societies – A Case in Langtang Valley
4.1 Background
4.2 Methodology
4.2.1 Study Area
4.2.2 Methods of Data Collection
4.3 Results
4.3.1 Cryosphere–Livelihood Linkages
4.3.2 Changes in the Cryosphere System
4.3.3 Cascading Disaster: The 2015 Gorkha Earthquake
4.3.4 Cascading Effects of a Cascading Disaster
4.4 Discussion
4.5 Conclusion
References
Part III: Geomorphological and Water Issues: Nepal and Brazil
Chapter 5: Urbanization and Soil Erosion in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal
5.1 Introduction
5.2 The Study Area
5.3 Methods and Materials
5.3.1 Land Use/Land Cover
5.3.2 Topography
5.3.3 Soil Erosion Rate
5.3.4 Field Study
5.4 Results
5.4.1 Land Use/Land Cover Change
5.4.2 Soil Erosion
5.5 Discussion
5.6 Conclusion
References
Chapter 6: Assessing Terrain Hazards for Sustainable Human Settlements in Chāngunārāyan Municipality of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Data and Methods
6.3 Study Area
6.4 Results and Analysis
6.4.1 Change in Land Uses and Built-up Area
6.4.2 Terrain Hazards
6.4.2.1 Landslide Hazards
6.4.2.2 Liquefaction Hazard
6.4.3 Settlements for Suitability and Unsuitability
6.4.4 Settlement Planning
6.5 Conclusion
References
Chapter 7: River Ecology Services and People of Riparian Settlements in the Tamakoshi River Basin, Central Nepal
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Methods and Materials
7.2.1 The Study Area — The Tamakoshi River Basin
7.2.2 Data and Survey Methods and Tools
7.3 Results and Discussions
7.3.1 The basin’s Riparian Settlements
7.3.2 The River Ecological Services
7.3.2.1 Product Resources
7.3.2.2 Natural, Aesthetic and Spiritual Aspects
7.3.2.3 Geo-Chemical Features
7.4 Conclusions
References
Chapter 8: Traditional Water Supply Systems and the Sponge City Concept Toward Diminishing Environmental Marginalization in Kirtipur Municipality, Nepal
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Data and Methods
8.2.1 The Study Area: Kirtipur Municipality
8.2.2 Survey Methods
8.3 Findings and Analysis
8.3.1 Traditional Water Sources
8.3.2 Traditional Conservation Systems of Water Supply Sources
8.3.3 The Sponge City Concept
8.4 Findings and Application
8.4.1 Change in Land Uses
8.4.2 Hydrological Analysis
8.4.3 Wetland Design
8.4.4 Ecological Water Management
8.4.5 Designing River Banks with Rainwater Garden
8.4.6 Permeable Pavement
8.4.7 Bioretention
8.5 Discussions
8.6 Conclusion
References
Chapter 9: Everyday Water Use in Kathmandu Valley of Nepal: Contextualizing Marginality and Social Vulnerability
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Conceptual Framework
9.3 Methods and Materials
9.3.1 Study Area
9.3.2 Data and Methods
9.4 Results and Discussion
9.4.1 Resource Availability and Use
9.4.2 Social Structure & Relationships
9.4.3 Marginality and Vulnerability
9.4.4 Resource Management and Role of Institutions
9.5 Conclusion
References
Chapter 10: Marginalized Urban Rivers: Between Local Governance and Environmental Justice
10.1 Theoretical Landmarks on Territorial Justice
10.2 From Landscape Management to the Right to Landscape: The Recursive Ring against Marginalization
10.3 Landscape Integration and Urban River Re-Naturalization
10.3.1 The Landscape Integration and the Local Governance Strategy
10.3.2 Re-Naturalization of Urban Rivers and Landscape Management Tactics
10.4 Jacaré River Basin Case: Analysis of a Marginalized Neighborhood
10.4.1 The Jacaré River Basin: A Description
10.4.2 The Jacaré: Vernacular Geographies of a Critical Neighborhood
10.5 Conclusion: A Propositional Agenda
References
Part IV: Economy and Society: Nepal and Southeast Asia
Chapter 11: Empowerment of Marginalized Dalit Women’s Groups Through Microfinance and Social Capital in Nepal
11.1 Introduction
11.2 SC Classifications and Concept Arrangement by the Social Capital Assessment Tool
11.2.1 SC Classifications
11.2.2 Concept Arrangement Framework by the Social Capital Assessment Tool
11.3 Methods: Interview Survey with Dalit Women
11.4 Results and Discussions
11.4.1 MF Activities of Dalit Women’s Groups
11.4.2 Women’s Empowerment and Poverty Reduction
11.4.2.1 Usefulness of MF Activities from the Perspective of Regional Discrepancies
11.4.2.2 Initiatives in the Badi Community
11.4.3 MF and SC Synergistic Effects
11.5 Conclusions and Recommendations
References
Chapter 12: Informal Marketing and Livelihood of Marginal Communities in Urban Kathmandu Valley, Nepal
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Data Base and Methods
12.3 Findings and Analysis
12.3.1 Brief Description of Kathmandu Valley
12.3.2 Features of Informal Marketing and Market Places
12.3.2.1 Growth and Development
12.3.2.2 Classification of Goods
12.3.2.3 Distribution Pattern of the Market Places
12.3.3 Livelihood Means
12.3.3.1 Employment and Income
12.4 Discussions and Conclusions
References
Chapter 13: Farmers’ Access to Agricultural Development Services in the Eastern Hills of Nepal: A Case of the Milke-Tinjure Watershed Region
13.1 Background
13.2 Data Base and Methods
13.2.1 Introduction to the Study Area
13.2.2 Database and Methods
13.3 Results and Analysis
13.3.1 Distribution of Cultivated Lands
13.3.2 Adoption Patterns of Modern Agricultural Inputs
13.4 Discussions
13.5 Conclusion
References
Chapter 14: People’s Accessibility and Periodic Markets in the Tankhuwākholā Watershed, Eastern Hills of Nepal
14.1 Introduction
14.2 Data Sources and Methods
14.3 Results and Analysis
14.3.1 Study Area
14.3.2 Growth and Development of the Periodic Markets
14.3.3 Spatio-Temporal Features of Hāts
14.3.4 Functions of Hāts
14.3.5 Linkages of Hats
14.3.5.1 Inflow
14.3.5.2 Outflow
14.3.5.3 Net Flow of Goods
14.4 Discussions
14.5 Conclusion
References
Chapter 15: Human-Elephant Conflicts in a Marginalised Community of Ulu Tembeling
15.1 Introduction
15.2 Methodology
15.3 Results and Findings
15.3.1 Respondents’ Profiles and General Information
15.3.2 The Intensity of HEC in Ulu Tembeling
15.4 Concluding Remarks
References
Chapter 16: The Sedentarization Program and Everyday Resistance to State Intervention in Vietnam’s Uplands
16.1 Introduction
16.2 Theoretical Insights
16.3 Methodological Considerations
16.4 Outline of the Study Site
16.5 Results
16.5.1 The Sociopolitical and Economic Situation of Un Village before State Intervention
16.5.2 State Interventions and Local Responses
16.5.2.1 The Forestland Allocation and Local Responses
16.5.2.2 The Sedentarization Program and Local Response
16.6 Discussion and Conclusion
References
Part V: Regional Policy Issues
Chapter 17: Accessibility and Governance Systems in Local Development: Measuring Marginality in the Mid-Marsyāngdi River Basin, Nepal
17.1 Introduction
17.1.1 Brief Account of Development of Accessibility in Nepal
17.1.2 Brief Description of Accessibility in Lamjung District
17.2 Data and Methods
17.2.1 The Study Area: The Mid-Marsyāngdi River Basin
17.2.2 Data and Methods
17.2.3 Methods of Analysis
17.3 Findings and Analysis
17.3.1 Status of Available Public Facilities at the District Level
17.3.2 VDC Level Facilities/Services in MMRB
17.3.3 Service Accessibility by Castes/Ethnic Groups in MMRB
17.4 Discussions and Conclusions
References
Chapter 18: Cohesion Policy in the Struggle Against the Marginalization of the Inner Peripheries: Polish Experience and Recommendations
18.1 Introduction
18.2 Impact of European Cohesion Policy on the Formation of the Polish Model of Development Policy
18.3 Objectives and Outcomes of Cohesion Policy Intervention in Poland
18.4 Comparison of Regional Centres and Inner Peripheries as Beneficiaries of Cohesion Policy – Facts and Opinions
18.5 Cohesion Policy and Inner Peripheries – Polish Experiences and Recommendations
References
Chapter 19: Between Two Empires and Two States: The Central Jordan Valley and the Jiftlik Saraya
19.1 Introduction
19.2 The Ottoman Years: The Bedouin Question, the Refugees, and the Infiltration of the Western Powers
19.2.1 The First Centuries 1517–1858
19.2.2 The Privatization of Lands in Ottoman Palestine and the Private Lands of Sultan Abdul-Hamid II in the Jordan Valley
19.2.3 Building Villages, Towns, and Government Houses in Palestine
19.3 The Jiftlik Lands – Geography and Characteristics
19.3.1 Climate and Terrain in the Jordan Valley and Wadi Fara’a (Tirtza River)
19.3.2 The Jiftlik Saraya Structure at Wadi Fara’a
19.3.3 The Jiftlik During World War I and the British Mandate Period
19.3.4 The Uniqueness of the Jiftlik Police Station Among the Tegart Array of Police Forts
19.3.5 The Importance of the Jordan Valley to the Jewish Community
19.4 The Central Jordan and Fara’a Valleys Under Jordanian Rule
19.4.1 The East Side of the Central Jordan Valley Under Jordanian Rule After 1948
19.4.2 The Western Side of the Central Jordan Valley Under Jordanian Rule After 1948
19.5 The Israeli Period, 1967–Present
19.5.1 Use of the Saraya Following the 1967 Six-Day War
19.5.2 Conservation
19.6 Conclusion
References
Archives
Published Sources
Part VI: Conclusion
Chapter 20: Humans and Nature: Conflict or Cooperation?
References

Citation preview

Perspectives on Geographical Marginality

Pushkar K. Pradhan Walter Leimgruber   Editors

Nature, Society, and Marginality

Case Studies from Nepal, Southeast Asia and other regions

Perspectives on Geographical Marginality Volume 8

Series Editors Walter Leimgruber, Department of Geosciences, Geography, University of Fribourg/CH, Fribourg, Switzerland Etienne Nel, University of Otago, Dunedin, Otago, New Zealand Stanko Pelc, Faculty of Education, University of Primorska, Koper, Slovenia

This series is now indexed in Scopus. This book series Perspectives on Geographical Marginality comprehensively overviews research, on areas and communities impacted by processes of marginalization as a result of globalization, economic, environmental, political and social change. This series seeks to discuss and determine what is geographical marginality by inviting leading international experts to publish theoretical and applied work. It also seeks to rigorously debate the degree to which local areas and communities are responding to these process of change and with what success. The series stems from the International Geographical Union’s (IGU)‚ ‘Commission on Globalization, Marginalization, and Regional and Local Response’ (C12.29). As is suggested by its name, the commission researches the problem of geographical marginality offering a leading forum from which this series will be led. Marginality cannot be defined without putting it into a certain perspective: economic, political and social (including cultural). Marginality has to be clearly distinguished from peripherality. Marginal areas may be a part of periphery or even the centre, but “cannot really be attributed to them”. Proposed themes which will be covered include: • Mountainous regions and globalization • Regional development and policy /or: Globalization and its impact on local and regional development • Theory of marginalization • Transformation of rural areas from the viewpoint of globalization and marginalization • Drivers of marginalization in border and peripheral areas.

Pushkar K. Pradhan  •  Walter Leimgruber Editors

Nature, Society, and Marginality Case Studies from Nepal, Southeast Asia and other regions

Editors Pushkar K. Pradhan Department of Geography Tribhuvan University Kathmandu, Nepal

Walter Leimgruber Department of Geosciences, Geography University of Fribourg Fribourg, Switzerland

ISSN 2367-0002     ISSN 2367-0010 (electronic) Perspectives on Geographical Marginality ISBN 978-3-031-21324-3    ISBN 978-3-031-21325-0 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21325-0 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

Preface

The present book originates in a symposium held in Kathmandu, Nepal, December 8–14, 2019, immediately before the first case of the SARS-CoV-2 virus was detected in Wuhan, China. The ensuing pandemic spread rapidly across the globe (it can be interpreted as a consequence of globalization) and turned the world upside down, crippling life for weeks and even months. One of the effects was that the process to publish the deliberations of the conference did not start immediately, and even afterwards, unexpected events delayed it. The pandemic, in a certain sense, marginalized life on Earth, showing that humans cannot control everything. This statement also underlies most of the following contributions: while humanity does everything it can imagine to organize life on the planet, it remains subject to the laws of physics, of nature. This is a truism that has also turned up in previous books in this series, but it is so obvious that it is usually overlooked by a society that still regards itself as the crown of creation. One sometimes wonders if the scientific denomination of homo sapiens is really correct and where the sapiens component has disappeared. The editors thank the contributors for their efforts to produce their texts on time, for their devotion to the subjects, and for their patience in a difficult time. They are also grateful to the Springer team (Evelien Bakker and colleagues) for their constant support in realizing our dream of publication. Kathmandu, Nepal Fribourg, Switzerland 30 September 2022

Pushkar K. Pradhan Walter Leimgruber

v

Contents

Part I Introduction 1

 Natural Disasters, Marginal Regions, and Labour Migration������������    3 Pushkar K. Pradhan and Walter Leimgruber

Part II Human Interference and Natural Systems 2

 Environmental Unsustainability or the Cost of Civilization����������������    9 Walter Leimgruber

3

Climate Change and Health Impacts on Vulnerable Communities: The Case of Kala-Azar (Visceral Leishmaniasis) in Nepal ������������������   33 Bandana Pradhan and Birgit Kuna

4

Cryosphere Changes, Cascading Disasters, and Societies – A Case in Langtang Valley ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������   49 Binaya Pasakhala, Amina Maharjan, Sabarnee Tuladhar, and Arabinda Mishra

Part III Geomorphological and Water Issues: Nepal and Brazil 5

 Urbanization and Soil Erosion in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal��������������   67 Chhabi Lal Chidi

6

Assessing Terrain Hazards for Sustainable Human Settlements in Chāngunārāyan Municipality of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal ������������������������������������������������������������������   85 Krishna Karkee, Shakti Gurung, and Anish Joshi

7

River Ecology Services and People of Riparian Settlements in the Tamakoshi River Basin, Central Nepal ��������������������������������������  101 Uttam Sagar Shrestha and Saruna Shrestha Amatya

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viii

Contents

8

Traditional Water Supply Systems and the Sponge City Concept Toward Diminishing Environmental Marginalization in Kirtipur Municipality, Nepal��������������������������������������������������������������  119 Gyanu R. Maharjan

9

Everyday Water Use in Kathmandu Valley of Nepal: Contextualizing Marginality and Social Vulnerability ������������������������  135 Shobha Shrestha and Devi Pd. Paudel

10 Marginalized  Urban Rivers: Between Local Governance and Environmental Justice����������������������������������������������������������������������  155 Ivaldo Lima Part IV Economy and Society: Nepal and Southeast Asia 11 Empowerment  of Marginalized Dalit Women’s Groups Through Microfinance and Social Capital in Nepal ����������������������������  167 Chikako Aoki and Pushkar K. Pradhan 12 Informal  Marketing and Livelihood of Marginal Communities in Urban Kathmandu Valley, Nepal ������������������������������������������������������  179 Puspa Sharma 13 Farmers’  Access to Agricultural Development Services in the Eastern Hills of Nepal: A Case of the Milke-Tinjure Watershed Region������������������������������������������������������������������������������������  197 Shyam Prasad Wagle 14 People’s  Accessibility and Periodic Markets in the Tankhuwākholā Watershed, Eastern Hills of Nepal���������������������������������������������������������  209 Shambhu P. Khatiwada 15 Human-Elephant  Conflicts in a Marginalised Community of Ulu Tembeling��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������  227 Moh Ruzed Embong and Jamalunlaili Abdullah 16 The  Sedentarization Program and Everyday Resistance to State Intervention in Vietnam’s Uplands������������������������������������������  237 Quy Le Ngoc Phuong and Doo-Chul Kim Part V Regional Policy Issues 17 Accessibility  and Governance Systems in Local Development: Measuring Marginality in the Mid-Marsyāngdi River Basin, Nepal�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������  253 Balkrishna Baral

Contents

ix

18 Cohesion  Policy in the Struggle Against the Marginalization of the Inner Peripheries: Polish Experience and Recommendations����������������������������������������������������������������������������  271 Anna Dubownik, Paweł Churski, Czesław Adamiak, and Barbara Szyda 19 Between  Two Empires and Two States: The Central Jordan Valley and the Jiftlik Saraya������������������������������������������������������  291 Rivka Yermiash and Ruth Kark Part VI Conclusion 20 Humans  and Nature: Conflict or Cooperation?�����������������������������������  325 Walter Leimgruber and Pushkar K. Pradhan

List of Figures

Fig. 2.1

Fig. 2.2 Fig. 2.3

Fig. 3.1 Fig. 3.2 Fig. 3.3 Fig. 4.1 Fig. 4.2 Fig. 5.1 Fig. 5.2 Fig. 5.3

Bondo (GR) after the second mudflow, 2017. The old village has been protected from the debris thanks to its location slightly above the valley floor. (Photo: Marco Giacometti/zvg, found on https://www.nzz.ch/panorama/ bildstrecke/bergsturz-­in-­graubuenden-­eine-­geroelllawine-­ streift-­das-­buendner-­dorf-­bondo-­ld.1312390, photo 48/64; Accessed August 1, 2021).............................................................. 15 The Randa rockfall 1991, scarp and dejection cone. (Photo WL, October 2004)............................................................. 16 Avalanche protection east facing slope of the Soushorn, Lauterbrunnen, canton of Berne. (Photo WL, February 2019, the picture measures roughly 3.4 km from left to right).................................................................................... 24 Relations between climate change and vector-borne diseases. (Source: Ogden, 2017).................................................... 37 Growth trend of Kala-azar cases and deaths in Nepal. (Source: DoHS, 2019).................................................................... 38 Distribution of Kala-azar cases by district in Nepal. (Source: DoHS, 2019).................................................................... 39 Map of the study area. (Source: Esri, Maxar, GeoEye, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AeroGRID, IGN, and the GIS User Community).......................... 51 Cascading effects of the 2015 earthquake in Langtang. (Source: Authors’ elaboration)....................................................... 56 The study area – the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal............................. 69 Land use/land cover change in the Kathmandu Valley from 1990 to 2019. (Source: Landsat 8 image 2019 ICIMOD)..... 73 Annual soil erosion rates (tons/ha), Kathmandu Valley................. 75

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xii

Fig. 5.4 Fig. 5.5 Fig. 6.1 Fig. 6.2 Fig. 6.3 Fig. 6.4 Fig. 6.5 Fig. 6.6 Fig. 6.7

Fig. 7.1 Fig. 7.2 Fig. 8.1 Fig. 8.2 Fig. 8.3 Fig. 8.4 Fig. 9.1 Fig. 9.2 Fig. 9.3 Fig. 9.4 Fig. 9.5

List of Figures

Ascending order of average soil erosion rate extracted by 200 m ⤬ 200 m square grid...................................................... 76 Soil loss in area (%) by year between hill slope and valley floor............................................................................... 77 Location of Chāngunārāyan municipality, Kathmandu Valley, Nepal.................................................................................. 88 Expansion of built-up areas between and 2012 and 2018.............. 90 Distribution of slope (degree), Chāngunārāyan municipality........92 Levels of landslide hazard, Chāngunārāyan municipality.............92 Liquefaction hazard for Chāngunārāyan municipality for 200 years return period. (Source: Genesis Consultancy 2018)......................................................................... 94 Liquefaction hazard for Chāngunārāyan municipality for 475 years return period. (Source: Genesis Consultancy 2018)......................................................................... 94 Distribution of suitable and unsuitable lands for settlements in Chāngunārāyan municipality. (Source: Genesis Consultancy 2018)............................................. 95 Location of the Tāmākoshi River Basin, central mountain region of Nepal............................................................................... 102 Spatial distribution of riparian settlements by sector in the Tāmākoshi River basin......................................................... 107 Land use of Kirtipur municipality.................................................. 120 Land use zones of Kirtipur municipality........................................ 123 Overview of conventional urban pluvial flood management pattern and sponge city pattern. (Source: Lashford et al., 2019)..................................................................... 126 Mean monthly temperature and precipitation, Kirtipur municipality...................................................................... 128 A conceptual framework of the study. (Modified after Choe & Yin, 2017; Gurung & Kollmair, 2005; Cutter et al., 2000).......................................................................... 138 Map of the study area. (Source: Survey Department & Department of Mines & Geology, Nepal)...................................... 139 Methodological framework of the study. (Modified after Callo-Concha et al., 2014; Lopez, 2017 & Shrestha, 2020)............................................................................... 141 Groundwater recharge potential zone. (Source: DoMG, 1888) and case study sites: Taudaha, Satungal, Raniban, Kapan and Chhetrapati locations................................................... 142 Distribution of groundwater sources over housing density............ 144

List of Figures

Fig. 10.1 Fig. 10.2

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The cut of the basin and its significant social uses: housing, commerce, farming. (Source: Lima et al. 2016).............. 160 Doors and windows of the visual basin: the landscaped connectors. (Source: Ivaldo Lima)................................................. 162

Fig. 11.1

The Input-Output Relationship between Microfinance and Social Capital. (Source: Yuki, 2003, UNESCO, 2002, Aoki, 2015).................................................................................... 169 Fig. 11.2 The Study’s survey districts in Nepal (1. Doti, 2. Kailali, 3. Bardiya, 4. Banke, 5. Jumla, 6. Rupandehi, 7. Nawalparasi, 8. Kaski, 9. Makawanpur, 10. Lalitpur, 11. Dhanusha, 12. Morang, 13. Jhapa, and 14. Ilam)............................................ 173 Fig. 11.3 Synergistic effects of Microfinance and Social Capital................. 175 Fig. 12.1 Fig. 12.2 Fig. 12.3 Fig. 12.4 Fig. 12.5 Fig. 12.6 Fig. 13.1 Fig. 13.2 Fig. 13.3 Fig. 14.1 Fig. 14.2 Fig. 14.3

Location of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal........................................... 181 Spatial distribution of market places, Greater Kathmandu............ 186 Size of market places and population density. (Source: Sharma, 2018).................................................................. 187 Market places vis-à-vis street vendors and public bus stops.......... 188 Squatter settlements in the Greater Kathmandu area..................... 191 Distribution of expenses on items by street vendors...................... 191 Location of study area — the Milke-Tinjure Mid Mountain range, Dhankutā District, Nepal..................................................... 198 Adoption of modern agricultural inputs by year............................ 203 Outflow of vegetables and other products from Dhankutā to outside places (GoN/DFID, 2013)............................................. 206 Location of the Tankhuwākholā watershed, Dhankutā District. (Source: Survey Department 1996, Toposheets Map of Nepal, Kathmandu)......................................... 212 People’s travelling patterns to hāts in the Tankhuwākholā watershed. (Source: Survey Department 1996, Toposheets Map of Nepal & author’s elabotation)........................................... 213 Marketing commodities at the hats of the study region. (Photos: S.P. Khatiwada)................................................................ 219

Fig. 16.1

Location of research site................................................................ 241

Fig. 17.1

Location of the Marsyāngdi River Basin in Lamjung District, Nepal. (Source: Survey Department 1996, District map of Lamjung, Nepal, Kathmandu).............................. 256 Location of service centres in Lamjung district. (Source: HMG 1989, Central Service Map. Suspension Bridge Division, Kathmandu)........................................................ 261 Road and drainage networks in the MMRB. (Source: Survey Department 1996, Toposheets Map of Nepal, Kathmandu, updated 2016)............................................................ 264

Fig. 17.2 Fig. 17.3

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Fig. 18.1

Fig. 18.2

Fig. 18.3

Fig. 18.4

Fig. 18.5 Fig. 18.6

Fig. 18.7

Fig. 19.1 Fig. 19.2 Fig. 19.3

List of Figures

Changes in the amounts and structure of the EU regional policy funds allocated in Poland in the period of 1990–2020 (value of the average annual allocation at the national level). (Source: Own work based on unpublished data by the European Commission)............................................................ 275 Structure of funds delivered within particular EU fund programmes in Poland in the period of 2007–2013. (Source: Own elaboration, based on data by SIMIK National Information System, Agency for Restructuring and Modernisation of Agriculture (ARMA) and Local Data Bank of Central Statistical Office)........................................ 276 Amount of resources spent within cohesion funds in NUTS 3 units (A) increased by RDP investment (B) and RDP investment and direct payments to farmers (C) per capita (thousand PLN). (Source: Own elaboration based on data by SIMIK National Information System, Agency for Restructuring and Modernisation of Agriculture (ARMA) and Local Data Bank of Central Statistical Office)............................................................................ 278 (A) GDP per capita in 2015, (B) change in GDP per capita 2006–2015 (%), (C) average gross salary in 2015, (D) change in gross salary 2006–2015 (%) in NUTS 3 units. (Source: Own elaboration based on data by Local Data Bank of Central Statistical Office)................................................. 279 Types of subregions (NUTS 3 units) in Poland. (Source: Own work based on data by Local Data Bank of Central Statistical Office)............................................................................ 283 Absorption level within particular programmes of EU funds by type of subregion. (Source: Own elaboration based on data by SIMIK National Information System, Agency for Restructuring and Modernisation of Agriculture (ARMA) and Local Data Bank of Central Statistical Office)............................................................................ 283 Changes in GDP and average salaries in subregions. (Source: Own elaboration based on data by Local Data Bank of Central Statistical Office)................................................. 284 Beit-She’an Saraya Building with the Abdulhamid II ‘Tughra’. (Source: Photo Rivka Yermiash, 2019).......................... 295 PEF Map 1880 “Tahunet el Kadriyeh” flourmill. (Source: Map Library, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem).................................................................................. 300 Wadi Fara’a in Jordan Valley, 1934–1939. (Source: Matson collection, The Library of Congress, Washington D.C.)........................................................................... 302

List of Figures

Fig. 19.4 Fig. 19.5 Fig. 19.6 Fig. 19.7 Fig. 19.8 Fig. 19.9 Fig. 19.10 Fig. 19.11 Fig. 19.12 Fig. 19.13

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Farawe Map1913. (Source: Central Zionist Archives (CZA), Jerusalem, Map no. J15M640).......................................... 304 German Map, June 1918. (Source: Map Library, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem)............................................ 305 Wadi Fara’a September 1918, end of World War I. (Source: Imperial War Museum, London, Photo George Westmoreland)................................................................... 306 Jiftlik Building, South Wall. (Source: Photo Rivka Yermiash, 2017)............................................................................. 309 Diagram of the PWD First Plan of the Jiftlik Tegart Building, 1940. (Source: Israel State Archive. file no. 4769–1).............................................................................. 309 Second Plan Diagram of scaled down program of the Jiftlik Tegart Building, 1940. (Source: Israel State Archive. file no. 4768–1)................................................................ 310 Construction of the Jiftlik police 1940–1941. (Source: Photographed by the Mandate Public Works. Israel State Archives)............................................................................... 310 The Jiftlik building, 1941. Source: Hagana Archives, Tel Aviv. Photog Shmuel Yosef Schweig. (We thank Dr. Gad Kroiser for his help)......................................................... 311 Water or feeding trough in the Jiftlik building, with the British addition on the Ottoman trough. (Source: Photo Rivka Yermiash, 2017)......................................................... 311 Comparison of the Jordan Valley 2021 and 1880. (Prepared by Prof Noam Levin from OpenStreetMap https://www.openstreetmap.org/ We thank Prof. Noam Levin for his help with the maps).................................................. 317

List of Tables

Table 3.1 Table 3.2 Table 3.3 Table 3.4

Distribution of poverty incidence in Nepal, 2011...........................40 Distribution of roads and road accessibility in Nepal.....................41 Healthcare service accessibility in Nepal........................................42 Distribution of per capita cultivated land by physiographic region, Nepal...................................................................................43

Table 5.1 The weight values of P and C factors for different land use/land cover classes......................................................................72 Table 5.2 Change in land use/land cover categories from 1990 to 2019....................................................................................74 Table 5.3 Change in land use/land cover categories in percent between valley floor and hill slope..................................................75 Table 5.4 Average rate of soil erosion and total amount of soil loss...............76 Table 5.5 Average soil erosion rates (tons/ha/year) by land use category.....................................................................................77 Table 5.6 Comparison of average soil loss rates (ton/ha/year) between hill slope and valley floor..................................................78 Table 6.1 Change in major land use categories in Chāngunārāyan municipality (2012–2017)...............................................................89 Table 6.2 Current built-up area and its projected growth (ha), Chāngunārāyan Municipality..........................................................90 Table 6.3 Elevation and landslide, Chāngunārāyan municipality...................93 Table 6.4 Classification of liquefaction susceptibility potentials....................93 Table 6.5 Distribution of suitable and unsuitable areas (ha) for settlements by elevation, Chāngunārāyan.......................................96 Table 7.1 Distribution of households and their position from the river bank by sector.........................................................................104 Table 7.2 The ecological services available in the Tāmākoshi River Basin......................................................................................109

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Table 7.3 Distribution of irrigated arable land by sector.................................109 Table 7.4 Distribution of chemical parameters by stream sectors...................116 Table 8.1 Description of population density classes, ward number and area range and location.............................................................121 Table 8.2 Distribution of traditional water sources by ward, Kirtipur municipality.......................................................................123 Table 8.3 Trend of land use change in Kirtipur municipality.........................127 Table 9.1 Marginality and vulnerability in resource availability and use context................................................................................148 Table 11.1 The relationship between microfinance activities and social capital in mountainous areas and areas far from cities..................................................................................171 Table 11.2 The relationship between microfinance activities and social capital in plain region and areas near cities.....................................172 Table 12.1 Distribution of petty vendors by income class and gender..............190 Table 13.1 Distribution of sample households by elevation and distance from highway..............................................................200 Table 13.2 Distribution of arable land (ha) by type and altitude.......................202 Table 13.3 Distribution of adopters among the market centres by year............203 Table 13.4 Distribution of adopters (hhs) by elevation zone from distance of Koshi highway......................................................204 Table 14.1 Market functions of the hāts in the Tankhuwākholā watershed region..............................................................................218 Table 15.1 Summary of Respondent Profile in Ulu Tembeling........................230 Table 15.2 HEC Incident among Respondents in Ulu Tembeling (January–December 2014)..............................................................230 Table 15.3 Extent of Damage during HEC among Respondents in Ulu Tembeling (January–December 2014).................................231 Table 15.4 HEC Intensity Crosses Tabulation between Elephant Group Type and Season (January – December 2014).....................231 Table 15.5 Elephant Group Type vs. Duration of Attack..................................232 Table 15.6 Elephant Group Type vs. Crop Stages.............................................232 Table 16.1 Table 16.2 Table 16.3 Table 16.4

Characteristics of the interviewed household heads........................240 Landholding per household in 1998................................................243 Changes in landholding between 1998 and 2009............................246 Change in landholding between 2009 and 2017.............................248

Table 17.1 Presence and absence of selected 10 facilities by VDC in MMRB...............................................................................262 Table 17.2 Comparison of facilities accessibility between district and study region..............................................................................263

List of Tables

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Table 17.3 Distribution of selected key facilities by VDC in MMRB..............265 Table 17.4 Facility accessibility by caste/ethnic groups...................................265 Table 17.5 Employment pattern among castes/ethnics of MMRB in selected key sectors.....................................................................266 Table 18.1 Spatial simultaneous autoregressive error models...........................281 Table 19.1 Population dynamics on the eastern side of the Jordan Valley......................................................................... 313

Contributors

Jamalunlaili Abdullah  UIMT, Shah Alam, Malaysia Czesław Adamiak  Nicolaus Copernicus University, Toruń, Poland Saruna Shrestha Amatya  Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal Chikako Aoki  Nihon University, Mishima, Japan Balkrishna Baral  Independent local development specialist, Kathmandu, Nepal Chhabi Lal Chidi  Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal Paweł Churski  Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland Anna Dubownik  Nicolaus Copernicus University, Toruń, Poland Moh Ruzed Embong  UIMT, Shah Alam, Malaysia Shakti Gurung  Centre for Disaster Management Studies, Kathmandu, Nepal Anish Joshi  Genesis Consultancy Pvt. Ltd., Kathmandu, Nepal Krishna Karkee  Women Humanitarian and DRR Platform, Kathmandu, Nepal Ruth Kark  Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel Shambhu P. Khatiwada  Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal Doo-Chul Kim  Okayama University, Okayama, Japan Birgit Kuna  German Aerospace Center, Bonn, Germany Walter Leimgruber  University of Fribourg/CH, Fribourg, Switzerland Ivaldo Lima  Fluminense Federal University, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Amina  Maharjan  International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Lalitpur, Nepal Gyanu R. Maharjan  Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal xxi

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Arabinda  Mishra  International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Lalitpur, Nepal Binaya  Pasakhala  International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Lalitpur, Nepal Devi Pd. Paudel  Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal Quy  Le  Ngoc  Phuong  University of Agriculture and Forestry, Hue University, Hue, Vietnam Bandana Pradhan  Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal Pushkar K. Pradhan  Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal Puspa Sharma  Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal Shobha Shrestha  Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal Uttam Sagar Shrestha  Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal Barbara Szyda  Nicolaus Copernicus University, Toruń, Poland Sabarnee  Tuladhar  International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Lalitpur, Nepal Shyam Prasad Wagle  Tribhuvan University, Dhankuta, Nepal Rivka Yermiash  Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel

Part I

Introduction

Chapter 1

Natural Disasters, Marginal Regions, and Labour Migration Pushkar K. Pradhan and Walter Leimgruber

Most mountain regions in the world enjoy diversified features in terrain, geology, ecology, climate and societies, but many of them are prone to various types of naturally induced hazards such as landslides, avalanches, floods, and droughts. Besides, earthquakes also often occur, particularly in young mountains including the Himalayas, affecting natural, economic and social phenomena, and claiming the lives of many inhabitants. Furthermore, many regions and people particularly in the developing world are marginalized due to rugged terrain, hard labor, and inadequate basic facilities and infrastructure. Over the recent decades, climate change, particularly global warming has increased the difficulties of poor and marginalized communities in sustaining their livelihoods, due to their vulnerability to different climate change borne diseases. Both vulnerability and marginality eventually induce local people, particularly the working and productive group to leave their dwellings and move to other areas for safer, better opportunities, both within the country or abroad. Localities with few or no working populations are isolated and marginalized, arable land becomes fallow or is abandoned, and aged parents must live without care by the family. This is a major challenge across different countries of the world, though the degrees of marginalization and vulnerability vary from place to place or between communities. Efforts have been made to reduce this situation, but they are not sufficiently adequate. Against this backdrop, the annual conference on “Natural Disasters, Marginalized Regions and Labor Migration” under the IGU Commission on Marginalization, Globalization and Regional and Local Response C16.29 was held in Kathmandu, Nepal during December 8–14, 2019. A total of 32 scholars representing the P. K. Pradhan (*) Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal W. Leimgruber University of Fribourg/CH, Fribourg, Switzerland © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 P. K. Pradhan, W. Leimgruber (eds.), Nature, Society, and Marginality, Perspectives on Geographical Marginality 8, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21325-0_1

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Southeast, South and West Asian countries, Central Europe, and Latin America had presented their papers covering different issues in the conference. The above issues are a part of human-nature interrelationships, which are constant, but varying in range and intensity in both space and time. Regular updates demonstrate how they evolve and that, despite many setbacks, humans can learn how to adapt to the conditions set by nature and make efforts to repair the damages done. Thus, this book deals with the interactions between the natural and the human world that have long been a core element of research in geography and, since the beginning, also part of the studies on marginal regions and marginality. The permanent processes characterizing life in both nature and society demonstrate that also marginality is not a static concept but subject to constant change. In particular, the human imprint on nature and the impact of natural processes upon humans are proof of the dynamic systems we live in and have to adapt to. This book adopts a wide perspective of marginality: nature that has been marginalized by people (ecological marginality), but also social groups marginalized (social marginality) by politics, economic interests, development policies, and value judgements imbedded in culture. Some parts in the mountain regions are marginalized by unfair processes of development activities (spatial marginality). Thus, it sets out to explore the concepts of marginalization and marginality and to build an analysis through an empirical examination of its manifestations and causes in different parts of the world, drawing particularly on Nepal’s mountainous regions. Attempts are made in this book to bring together thematically diverse empirical studies on the livelihoods of people living in mountainous regions and beyond. In this way, it links up to the work of the forerunner organization, the Subcommission (later Study Group) on High Latitude and High-Altitude Regions (1982–1992). It continues the interesting discussions on margins, marginality, and marginalization in mountain regions and other areas. The book consists of six parts and 20 chapters and demonstrates the full extent of the marginality issue in the interactions between natural and human systems, as well as particularly on those segments of societies that have been left behind (marginal groups). The collection of scholarly written chapters examines social equity and environmental justice in Nepal and other countries of southeast Asia, central Europe, and Latin America. They deal with three key aspects: (i) regional and local phenomena, particularly in mountain regions, (ii) marginalization linked to the human misunderstanding of nature, and (iii) it offers an illustration of the breadth of the marginality concept. The three chapters of Part II offer insights into the theme of human interference with natural systems. They discuss natural catastrophes (ecological marginality), other disasters, and climate change and their impacts on nature itself, as well as on health and living conditions of marginal communities in mountain regions. Humanity continues to exploit nature recklessly without paying back to it, but it has to bear the costs. The warming climate due to increasing carbon-dioxide levels by human activities induces climate sensitive disease such as Kala-azar (Visceral Leishmaniasis) which affect the health of poor people living in remote villages, and

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cryosphere based cascading disasters impact the living conditions of high-mountain communities. These chapters also illustrate how places and people become marginal. The six chapters in Part III are about geomorphological and water issues in Nepal and Brazil. Five chapters deal with land and water based environmental resources, recklessly exploited for development projects, causing environmental hazards (soil erosion, landslides, river floods) and marginality in the mountain region of Nepal. They discuss the relationships between rapid but unplanned urbanization and land degradation inducing ecological marginality; river ecological resource services and livelihood of the riparian marginal communities affected by development activities (social marginality); and groundwater resource potentials (availability, access, and use) versus households and their vulnerability, and marginalization due to the legitimization of exclusion at different scales by the social institution, describing also plans for the sustainable development of human settlements. The chapter on Brazil discusses the re-naturalization of rivers as a legitimate intervention in urban space, as well as landscape integration as part of a local governance strategy. Part IV contains six chapters on the theme of economy and society in Nepal and Southeast Asia. The four chapters on Nepal discuss how socially marginalized communities and poor people of remote rural villages in the mountain region can be empowered through providing opportunities (micro-finance, social capital, informal marketing and marketplaces, and improved accessibility to essential services) in different economic activities. Differential accessibilities compared to benefits among the communities occur thanks to development works (spatial marginality). The chapter on Malaysia describes the difficult situation local communities of a geographically marginalized region face because of human-elephant conflict. The case study from Vietnam illustrates to what extent the process of state-making affects the socio-politico situations and livelihoods of ethnic minorities and their local response to mitigate central state policy. The three chapters in Part V deal with regional policy issues. The Nepal chapter examines marginalization as a consequence of spatial and social discriminations through unfair public policy practices in selecting service centers for deploying essential facilities and traditions against poor, lower castes, and ethnic groups by not allowing them access to resources, employment and income, and excluding them from the decision-making process. The chapter on Poland urges cohesion policy as an intervention tool in combating the marginalization of inner peripheries. The last paper explains the historical process of the evolution of marginal and peripheral areas in terms of land and settlements due to the political and historical transformations in Palestine, now Israel.

Part II

Human Interference and Natural Systems

Part II offers useful insights into the understanding of natural and socioeconomic catastrophes and climate change, and their impacts on the nature itself (ecological marginality), as well as on health and living conditions of the marginal communities in the mountainous regions of Switzerland and Nepal. By chosing cases from the Swiss Alps, the first chapter uses the notion of ecological marginality to connect it with Bonneuil’s thesis of ecological debt and discuss about how human activity brings about natural catastrophes and other disasters. It illustrates the way nature is hitting back and at what cost, arguing that the people continue to exploit nature recklessly without paying back. Regarding Nepalese mountains, two papers deal with disasters caused by warming climate, and its tremendous impacts on health and livelihood of the people, because the mountains are characterized by rugged terrain, and are remote and marginal due to the lack of roads and other essential facilities. The second paper deals with Kala-azar (Visceral Leishmaniasis), an infectious vector borne disease due to the warming climate, that has occurred in the mountains during recent decades where the disease has never been experienced before. Leishmaniasis is climate sensitive and occurs mostly in remote rural villages with little or no access to healthcare facilities and thus often infests poor people with weak adaptative capacities. The third chapter illustrates how a cryosphere based cascading disaster affects the living conditions of high-mountain communities. Their livelihood, based on the cryosphere, has gradually shifted to tourism, which lead to the degeneration of their cultural heritage (socio-cultural marginality) and the weakening of social capital, thereby increasing their physical and social vulnerability.

Chapter 2

Environmental Unsustainability or the Cost of Civilization Walter Leimgruber

2.1 Introduction When I reflected on marginality more than 25  years ago, I advanced ecological marginality as one of various approaches to our topic: “A region may be called ecologically central if it can function as a natural ecosystem with a minimum of human interference. In most cases, however, it would then be economically and socially marginal” (Leimgruber, 1994, p.10). The reverse is also true and is part of our present-­day reality, although there have been many efforts in recent years to arrive at a more balanced relationship between humans and nature. National parks, Biosphere Reserves and regional nature parks are visible signs of a change in mind, unless they are mere pretexts. When I wrote the sentence above in 1993, I did not anticipate that humanity was becoming aware of its meaning. It had been written after the Rio summit (1992), but what had been said at that time and in the two decades before has suddenly become manifest in a dramatic way: the pollution and degradation of air, land and water, global warming, species extinction, and the threat to the survival of the human species. There have been many popular manifestations of discontent with this gradual deterioration of our environment, initially mainly by associations for the protection of landscape and nature. Public protests have gathered momentum since the 1970s, however (Earth Day 1970, World Environment Day 1974), partly also in the context of globalization (Seattle 1999 during a WTO meeting, Genoa 2001 around the G8). The Extinct Rebellion originated in 2018, and so did the global climate protest movement Fridays for Future, pioneered by the Swedish student Greta Thunberg. This latest indicator of the general discontent with the current situation is borne by W. Leimgruber (*) University of Fribourg/CH, Fribourg, Switzerland e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 P. K. Pradhan, W. Leimgruber (eds.), Nature, Society, and Marginality, Perspectives on Geographical Marginality 8, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21325-0_2

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the young generation that opposes the ecological mismanagement caused by the present generation, and they receive a lot of support from the older generation as well. The young people of today are the decision makers of tomorrow, and it will be their task to redress the irresponsibility of the present-day economic and political leaders and consumers. However, many researchers and also the international community have expressed their concern about the risks human activities pose to our environment. One of the first was George Perkins Marsh in a lecture of 1847 (Hickman, 2011) that anticipated many of today’s thoughts  – they sound prophetic as the following quote shows: “Man cannot at his pleasure command the rain and the sunshine, the wind and frost and snow, yet it is certain that climate itself has in many instances been gradually changed and ameliorated or deteriorated by human action” (from ibid.). However, to continue this thought, Man can take them into account in his decisions and act accordingly. The scientific community seems to have remained largely silent, although political measures for the protection of forests occurred in the second half of the nineteenth century. The Symposium ‘Man’s role in changing the face of the Earth’, held in 1955 and uniting eminent researchers (among others Carl O. Sauer and Lewis Mumford; Thomas, 1956) was probably the first major event to draw our attention to the processes under way. But the biologist Rachel Carson had been writing about this topic many years before (see the collection of texts in Lear, 1998), anticipating her ‘Silent Spring’. This paper picks up from the 1994 idea and reflects on the relations between humans and nature from the perspective of our precarious existence. Precarious, because to live is and has always been a risk; the German author Erich Kästner formulated this truism in a small poem as to live is always life-threatening (Leben ist immer lebensgefährlich), the Italians use the saying to live dangerously (vivere pericolosamente). A risk is everything that threatens our life, our family and friends, and our material belongings (Geipel, 1992, p.2), but even when we lose our life and belongings, the world continues its course. Risk is a social category and related to our perception, and is part of human existence. “Thus all disasters are population-­ oriented, for arguably without people there can be no disaster” (Curson, 1989, p.3). Risks are omnipresent, and every decision may have an outcome different from what was expected. Risk prevention is a lucrative market for technological innovation and insurance companies, but although humanity has developed huge technological capacities, it is and continues to be weaker than nature. The après moi le deluge attitude (after me the flood) prevails.1

 This eighteenth century saying is attributed to the French King Louis XV or Madame de Pompadour. 1

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2.2 Humans, Risks and Nature Apart from the 1994 idea, I was motivated by an article by the French historian Christophe Bonneuil (2017). He discusses the asymmetric relationship between humans and nature, unequal ecological exchange and the crime against the climate during the Anthropocene. “The Anthropocene marks the failure of modernity which promised to separate history from nature, to liberate human destiny from natural determinism: the deregulations imposed on the Earth fall back on our lives and take us back to the reality of the thousands of interactions that link our society to the complex processes of an Earth that is neither stable nor external, nor unlimited” (Bonneuil, 2017, p.53 f.; transl. WL).2 The promise Bonneuil mentions is based on what humanity knows, but to know and to act are like the two sides of a coin: we know a lot but we do not act accordingly, rather do we take risks and take decisions that resemble gambling. Knowing the laws of physics can help to understand what to live with nature means. We manage to arrange ourselves and adapt to nature with technical measures and precautionary behaviour, but this is based on subjective judgements and the perception of local conditions. How such conditions will ultimately evolve is and remains unpredictable. We are also aware that any natural event that threatens human lives and artefacts (e.g. an avalanche, a flood, a volcanic eruption or others) is the result of natural forces following deterministic laws.3 By respecting these laws, we could avoid problems. Frequently, however, we trust our technology and ignore nature, experience and also spiritual aspects. Settling in unsafe places exposes us to certain risks such as floods or by destabilizing a slope. Anderson (1996, p.15) quotes the example of a Hongkong hospital that had been built on a steep slope. The local population warned the builders that they were cutting the dragon’s pulse, but they carried on, unimpressed. After a typhoon, the entire structure collapsed. The locals pointed to their warning which was to them more important that geomorphological facts, building norms and limits. One can also say that the planning authorities did not take nature into account. We have also overlooked the fact that by ignoring the problem of waste and residues we create our own natural catastrophes. It has been easy to dispose of all sorts of garbage in nature, intentionally or not, and the indiscriminate use of pesticides and synthetic fertilizers has given farmers the false idea that their production can increase forever. However, this is a ticking timebomb: landfills threaten groundwater, plastic in the oceans kills fish and other animals, intensive agriculture degrades the soils and menaces our food and water supply,4 overexploitation reduces the

 The term ‘anthropocene’ is subject to much debate and far from clear (Tripathy-Lang, 2021).  This holds also good for the spread of the Coronavirus in 2020 – just as for every other contagious disease. 4  In summer 2019, many Swiss municipalities had to close down a number of groundwater wells because they contained excessive residues of Chlorothanolin – the government banned the product from January 1, 2020 onwards (Bundesamt für Landwirtschaft, 2019). 2 3

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stock of plants and animals needed by future generations, etc. Defusing these timebombs will cost us dearly. These risks are building up slowly as time has a different meaning for us and for nature. Human time spans (life expectance, terms of office of politicians) are not sufficient to understand the full meaning of natural processes. It is true that decisive political action can show positive results in the short run, as in the case of Ozone-level depletion,5 but long-term solutions may take several generations. Humans call themselves Homo Sapiens, but I doubt if humans are really sapiens (i.e. wise, knowledgeable)!

2.3 Living with Risks A key term in Bonneuil’s paper is ‘ecological debt’, the result of unequal ecological exchange. He explains his argument as follows: “Whereas the Marxist notion of unequal exchange is related to the degradation of the terms of trade between centre and periphery as measured in the amount of work, the notion of ‘unequal ecological exchange’ is about the asymmetry that results when peripheral regions or regions dominated by the global economic system export goods of high ecological use-­ value against products with a low ecological use-value or which are harmful” (Bonneuil, 2017, p.55; transl. WL6). The ecological value can be measured by the ecological footprint,7 i.e. the surface needed to produce the goods we require for our daily life, the high-value energy input or raw materials incorporated into international trade, the waste and harmful substances and entropy generated and unequally distributed (ibid.). Replacing a tropical rainforest by a palm oil or soybean plantations or grazing land is a case in point. A rainforest is a complex ecosystem with an important regional and global role (carbon fixation, water regulation, biological diversity, treasury for medical plants etc.); it is ecologically central and economically rather marginal (Leimgruber, 1994, p.9  f.) but holds an inestimable option value. Oil palms, soybean plantations or pastures, on the other hand, are sterile monocultures of no ecological value, ecologically marginal but economically central (ibid.). Behind this are commercial interests (profit maximization) as well as regional, national and global power relations, from provincial and national governments to multinational companies.  It was discovered in the 1970s, first measures arrived in 1978 and the Montreal Protocol of 1987 launched an international effort to stop the emission of CFCs into the atmosphere. The depletion seems to have come to a halt in the 2000’s (Wikipedia, Ozone layer, accessed 09.04.2019). 6  Original: « l’asymétrie qui se joue lorsque des territoires périphériques ou dominés du système économique mondial exportent des produits à forte valeur d’usage écologique contre des produits qui ont une moindre valeur d’usage écologique voire sont générateurs de nuisances. » 7  It was 1.6 Earths in 2016 (WWF, 2016, p.13) and is on the increase. “Through changes in technology and land management practices, biocapacity has increased about 27% in the past 50 years. But it has not kept pace with human consumption: humanity’s Ecological Footprint has increased about 190% over the same time period.” This is the ‘great acceleration’ (WWF, 2018, p.30) that began after the end of World War II (Bonneuil, 2017, p.56). 5

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Humans understand debt usually as money owed to a person or an institution. The debt resulting from the inequality in Bonneuil’s arguments, however, is a moral debt that cannot be expressed in pecuniary terms. However, it includes human impacts on nature that generate real monetary costs (diseases, environmental degradation, and pollution) that are usually borne by the ordinary citizens (taxpayers), since the environment is a common good. Bonneuil’s arguments are directed towards the exploitation of the Earth’s resources in favour of human greed and consumption. However, the ecological debt goes beyond that and has deep consequences for mankind. We deprive our future generations of raw materials and leave them a ruined environment, and we intervene radically into natural processes without remembering that the laws of physics are stronger than human technology. This lack of regard for nature manifests itself in natural catastrophes that are occurring every year. Some of them (earthquakes and volcanic eruptions) are unpredictable despite sophisticated technologies or can only to some extent be anticipated, some can be anticipated and monitored (hurricanes), but others are expected (avalanches, landslides, rockfalls) but often without precise timing. Many negative consequences could be avoided if sufficient precautionary measures were taken and planners and politicians listened to scientists and/or learnt from history and ordinary people. We could, for example, avoid to build nuclear power stations close to or directly on fault lines, we can construct earthquake-proof buildings, and we can refrain from building settlements in flood plains or below unstable slopes. Common sense is lacking, for reasons of stubbornness, power or cost. Whatever type and size of natural disaster will strike a place or an area, humans play a role in it: passively as victims and actively as provokers. They are passively involved when they build their structures (houses, industries, roads and railways) in places that risk being touched by sudden events such as rockfalls, avalanches, floods etc. The modern western society trusts that technological progress has harnessed the forces of nature, or people feel safe because no catastrophe had occurred for decades (in their lifetime). The active role is more difficult to explain – nobody would intentionally trigger off a natural disaster (except during war). Climate change is a case in point. Sceptics pretend that humans are not involved in the current climate change (global warming). Doubtlessly, it is a natural process that has occurred throughout Earth history and is not directly caused by humans, but in the present time, we can ascertain that it is to a large extent induced by human activities, as the abrupt rise in temperatures since the massive use of fossil fuel and the resulting CO2 emissions into the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution demonstrate (NASA, 2019). It is our behaviour toward nature, the misconception that technology has defeated the laws of physics, that leads humanity into a cul-de-sac out of which it is difficult to escape. Time is a crucial element because of the inertia inherent in many processes, and because many processes occur very slowly; the results, however, may appear abruptly. Two examples from the English coast serve as illustrations. In the village of Happisburgh in Norfolk, cliff erosion is naturally strong because of the soft rock and the exposition of the coast to winds from the north and northeast. In

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the recent past, erosion has accelerated and houses have dropped down on the beach, and this will continue. The situation is clear: “Increased storminess fueled by climate change is expected to make erosion and flooding worse” (see https://www.pri. org/stories/2018-­04-­05/british-­village-­crumbles-­sea-­family-­holds-­home-­cant-­be-­ saved; accessed 21.06.2019). On the South Devon coast, the village of Hallsands completely disappeared. Sand was dredged from the beach between the late 1890s and 1902, changing the geometry of the beach and allowing the waves to attack the coastal cliffs directly. It was the unintentional consequence of a naval construction project near Plymouth. In 1917, the village fell into the sea and had to be abandoned. Only a few ruins remind us of the existence of this community (see Google Earth: 50°13′59” N, 3°39′30” W; https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-­england-­devon-­17974087; accessed 18.10.2021; https://www.visitsouthdevon.co.uk/places/hallsands-­p701613; accessed 18.10.2021). While Hallsands was visibly the result of a direct human intervention, the rising sea level as part of global warming is more difficult to prove as such. However, it is a reality. During a field trip along the beach between Natal and Fortaleza (Brazil) in 2005, the inhabitants of a fishing community showed us how the rising sea had started to hollow out the roots of the palm trees close to their houses, eating gradually away their beach and threatening their houses that had been constructed several tens of metres away from the water. They will ultimately have to build a new village some distance away or emigrate for good. The 2020 Covid-19 pandemic could merit its place in this chapter. This microscopic virus (a natural phenomenon) has managed to grind the global economy and society to an almost complete halt. This pandemic, which also originated in an unlucky relationship between humans and nature, had its costs (pecuniary as well as human), but it will take a few years to estimate their significance. Can we learn something from it? The list of examples is endless. In the following section, a few examples from the Swiss Alps will illustrate and discuss the idea of (ecological) debt and costs. Later, I shall inevitably have to refer to other catastrophes where human and natural factors combine, but one thing is sure: the bill always goes to humans.

2.4 Natural Hazards in the Swiss Alps Mountains are regions where the law of gravity manifests itself on a daily basis, all the year round. Avalanches are the result of snow instability and specific weather conditions in winter and spring, but sometimes also caused by careless skiers who leave the marked tracks. From spring through summer, and sometimes also into autumn, frost weathering and the melting permafrost can trigger off landslides and rockfalls, particularly on unstable slopes. Extreme weather conditions with heavy rain and storm have become frequent in the past years, leading to mudflows and river floods.

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2.4.1 Examples The following two examples look spectacular but are not exceptional.8 They occurred in 1991 and 2017, but their roots are older and humans play their part in them as well. 1. On August 23, 25 and 27, 2017, three rockfalls of cumulatively over three million cubic metres occurred on Mount Cengalo (3369 m) in the Bregaglia valley (southern Switzerland). Similar events had occurred in 2011 and 2012 when large masses of rocks had descended into the valley below, but without causing harm to humans. This time, however, eight hikers lost their lives, due to an unexpected chain of events: the masses fell onto a glacier which melted under the impact and triggered off a mudflow that rushed down the valley. The material covered the entire valley floor with the eight persons and continued as far as the main valley, partly covered and destroyed the village of Bondo, crossed the main valley floor and interrupted the road connection to the outside world (Fig. 2.1). No lives were lost in the village, but the inhabitants had to be evacuated to safer accommodations, and it was only in November that they could return to their homes in the older part of the village that had not been affected by the mudflow due to its higher elevation.

Fig. 2.1  Bondo (GR) after the second mudflow, 2017. The old village has been protected from the debris thanks to its location slightly above the valley floor. (Photo: Marco Giacometti/zvg, found on https://www.nzz.ch/panorama/bildstrecke/bergsturz-­in-­graubuenden-­eine-­geroelllawine-­ streift-­das-­buendner-­dorf-­bondo-­ld.1312390, photo 48/64; Accessed August 1, 2021)  At the end of the Ice Age, many rockfalls occurred on slopes destabilized by the retreating glaciers. This process can repeat itself due to global warming and the melting of glaciers.

8

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Fig. 2.2  The Randa rockfall 1991, scarp and dejection cone. (Photo WL, October 2004)

2. A spectacular rockfall had occurred in April and May 1991 in the valley leading to the tourist resort of Zermatt (Fig. 2.2). After repeated falls of large individual blocks, on two days, around 33 million cubic metres dropped from the Längenfluhberg into the valley, burying 33 buildings of a hamlet, damming the river, blocking road and railway downstream from the village of Randa, and covering the valley with a 15 cm layer of fine dust. There were no human fatalities but 7 horses and 33 sheep died. A bypass road and a new railway line had to be constructed and the lake behind the dejection cone had to be emptied through a 20 m deep channel dug at great speed. Ten years afterwards, small larches were sprouting from the debris on the lower part of the cone and have grown since – life is back. These are but two cases among many rockfalls and landslides that occur every year but usually take place in remote locations. They are spectacular because of the consequences for society: damage to infrastructure, loss of lives, follow-up costs – and lessons to be learnt.

2.4.2 Discussion To what extent can we connect these events to the active or passive role of humans discussed in the previous section? Certainly, intentions can be excluded, but human-­ induced climate change may be the unintentional active factor. The Mount Cengalo

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event in summer can be attributed to global warming that provokes the thawing of permafrost and thus destabilizes mountains (PERMOS, 2019, p.37). In the case of Randa, it was probably normal frost weathering and meltwater in cracks, because the event took place in spring immediately after the melting of the snow. However, the melting of the permafrost might also have played a role, although the geologists are not sure (Schindler et al., 1993, p.662).9 The Alps are instable and still rising, and earthquakes may have destabilized the mountain in the past without causing a movement at the time (ibid., pp.649, 653, 660). Slow processes may culminate in sudden events. Humans have always incurred risks in mountain regions, but they have learnt to cope with them. People built settlements and transportation routes away from danger zones and adapted their life to the risks they were exposed to. Living close to nature and with its rhythms had taught them that nature is stronger than man. However, humans also tend to forget, particularly as improved technology is said to harness natural forces. We ignore traditional strategies and occupy areas that are deemed safe thanks to dykes, walls, secured riverbeds etc. However, catastrophic floods, landslides, rockfalls and avalanches occur unexpectedly and are stronger than artificial defences.10 After clearing up the debris and taking new security and surveillance measures, we lull ourselves into a false sense of confidence until next time. At this point our passive role kicks in: by ignoring nature and historical experience we unknowingly and unintentionally contribute to catastrophes. Global warming and the thawing of permafrost above 2500 m will continue even if we manage to contain the rise of temperature in the short run (10 to 30 years). Natural processes have an inertia that outreaches human life-span perspectives. This is not new: the reality always differs from what we would like it to be. We have a limited perception of hazards, i.e. we tend to forget events quickly if they do not return within a few years. In their studies on droughts, storms and floods, Kates (1962, 1967) and Saarinen (1966) found that most people had a short memory. They returned to their homes after the events, convinced that such incidents are exceptional and would not recur in the short run. This attitude has not changed in the twenty-first century. In 2015, the Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL commissioned a survey of people’s awareness of natural hazards. A large majority of respondents (n = 2137) displayed a very strong attachment to their places of living, nature and landscapes, and would not like to leave it (Maidl et al., 2016, p.46). 45% of them did not remember any natural catastrophe at all – recollections went back roughly 10 years (ibid. p.20). Many people (45%) believe that science and technology can avert the risks (ibid. p.18). A majority agreed that damage could be averted if the authorities’ instructions were strictly  In June 2019, several huge blocks (150 to 300 tons) escaped from a rock glacier on the right side of the valley and threatened the village of Randa. People were evacuated but could return soon afterwards. A local dam was built do deviate further falling rocks. 10  In October 2000, a landslide destroyed a large part of the village of Gondo. 13 people died and almost the entire village had to be evacuated. A critical element was the protective wall against rockfalls at the base of a rock face, that gave way (unexpectedly) after extremely heavy rain. 9

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adhered to (ibid.). The role of climate change has been recognized by 78% (ibid., p.19). The political reaction after a catastrophe, apart from searching for a culprit, is risk assessment: (new) risk maps will be drawn, the alert system improved, and (new) evacuation plans prepared – and suddenly an event occurs that, according to the map, should not strike in this precise area because it was not classed as a hazard zone, or is stronger than anticipated. Predictions are problematic despite modern technology: the instability of Mount Cengalo was known and another rockfall had been forecast, but nobody could imagine the worst case that eventually happened, and nobody could give a precise date – nature has its own rhythm.

2.4.3 Lessons to Be Learnt These few examples demonstrate that something is wrong in the relations between humanity and nature. We are ultimately confronted with a problem of values that govern human actions and in the course of time have shifted from sacred (respect for nature) to secular (exploitation of nature; Leimgruber, 2004, pp.70 ff.). Secular values promote mechanistic and materialistic thinking; as a consequence, we value everything in money terms. It is obvious that we have to transcend this myopic attitude and realize that everything has its price. In the case of natural catastrophes, two types of costs occur: those arising in repairing damage (post-event costs), and the precautionary expenses that should prevent an event from happening or at least lessen its impact. For the former, insurances usually cover all or at least part of the cost, for the latter, we incur expenses without knowing whether they will really pay off. But this is the essence of the precautionary principle which “requires that, if there is a strong suspicion that a certain activity may have environmentally harmful consequences, it is better to control that activity now rather than to wait for incontrovertible scientific evidence” (Encycl. Brit., 2014, environmental law). Such evidence will, by the nature of things, inevitably arrive too late. Tampering with nature provokes other costs as well. The Human Development Report of 2007/08 establishes a direct relationship between global warming and poverty: “Climate change will undermine international efforts to combat poverty. … Climate change is hampering efforts to deliver the MDG promise. Looking to the future, the danger is that it will stall and then reverse progress built-up over generations not just in cutting extreme poverty, but in health, nutrition, education and other areas” (UNDP, 2007, p.1). It is well known “that climate-related risks are a major cause of human suffering, poverty and diminished opportunity” (ibid., p.74). The latest update goes even further, emphasizing that the degradation of the environment threatens human development gains (UNDP, 2018, pp.11 f.). Inequality and social unrest are the consequences (and costs). The ‘zero cost philosophy’ of twentieth century man is therefore obsolete and a new way back to reality is required (see Sect. 2.5). Nothing is free, there is always

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a price to be paid, not only in the shape of money. Humanity has run into a substantial moral debt towards the natural ecosystem without understanding the simple truth that everything is connected to everything. We can only acquit ourselves from the moral debt by a radical change in thinking and behaviour, but there is a long way to go. In the meantime, we are confronted with the material costs of our conventional behaviour, and they weigh heavily upon us. In an interview to ‘Il manifesto’ (Avallone & Leonardi, 2018), Jason Moore stated: “Nature is hitting us with the bill, and demanding payment for what we have been extracting from it for centuries.” Nature, however, has no bank account. This bill must be settled in a different way, and this will mean the end of our life as we have known it for centuries. Shall we ever be able to restore the environment after the damage done by humans? “But that’s a flawed path, because the idea of a nature that can be restored is both backward looking and rests on a vision of pristine nature that developed through genocide and conquest” (Patel & Moore, 2018, p.207). The unwillingness or inability to take precautionary steps force us to repair the unwanted consequences at a high cost, which manifests itself in two ways: 1. Natural catastrophes as sudden events show how vulnerable humankind ultimately is. The short-term repairing costs put a burden on personal, insurance and public budgets,11 and many consequences cannot be repaired at all, such as the loss of lives and the damages to cultural and natural heritage. 2. The slow degradation of our environment (soil degradation, air and water pollution, species extinction) and global warming put the prospects of our very existence into perspective. In this case we are confronted with long-term existence costs that will weigh heavily on future generations who will have to pay for our neglect.12 Nobody can deny that our (western) way of life creates an increasing pressure on the natural ecosystem with related costs. In her comment on the increasing ecological footprint and the Earth Overshoot Day, Jane Dalton writes: “The costs of the ‘ecological overspend’ include biodiversity loss, deforestation, soil erosion, collapsing fisheries, fresh water scarcity and the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, leading to a vicious circle of climate change and more severe droughts, wildfires and hurricanes” (Dalton, 2018) And even the International Monetary Fund has realized that “no single firm or household has a significant effect on climate, yet collectively there is a huge effect—so pricing is necessary to force the factoring of climate effects into individual-level decisions” (IMF, 2016, p.6). However, short-­ term thinking and a focus on immediate risks still dominate. “There is little private sector incentive to consider long-term risks from environmental degradation or

 Repairing material damage also boosts the economic performance (GDI, GDP), but this is a fake performance: the money could be put to better use. 12  The price for the disappearance of honeybees, for example, is either the loss of our food or the cost of (wo)manpower to artificially pollinate billions of flowers by hand (for more on this topic see Benjamin & McCallum, 2009). 11

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declining opportunities from investment. Instead many continue to invest in economic activities that result in environmental damage” (WWF, 2016, p.114).13

2.5 Who Bears the Costs? Nature offers services, and their (ecological) value is estimated at US$125 trillion a year (WWF, 2018, p.6). This is a lot of money but probably includes only their use value to humanity, i.e. the material and financial aspects. The non-use values (potential, knowledge, satisfaction etc.; Edwards & Abivardi, 1998) cannot be calculated and are not included in this figure. The WWF lists four groups of benefits that are key for our survival (comprising use and non-use elements): provisioning (food), regulating (water, air quality), supporting (nutrient cycles) and cultural (aesthetic values, health; WWF, 2018, p.18). Consuming them obviously has its price, but the producing and serving economy and the population as customers do not pay the full cost. Damaged buildings can be reconstructed, but the memories associated with them cannot, and human lives lost can only be calculated to the extent an insurance company puts a price on a human life. But what is the correct price for a human life? As Moore said in the interview quoted above, we will be presented with a bill, which we shall have to reimburse in some way or another. We usually understand a bill as a certain sum of money, and in this section, I want to look at precisely this point: how much does it cost to repair damages that are caused through negligent human behaviour? Such an approximation can help to shed light on the magnitude of this problem. Global warming is a major driver in certain cases, but the direct human component is difficult to ascertain. Avalanches, floods, rockfalls and landslides have occurred in the Alps before the advent of humans, but nowadays settlements, roads and railways must be protected with appropriate measures, no matter if humans are directly or indirectly responsible for the incidents. This means to face an element in economic calculations ignored so far: the true costs. For this, we have to look beyond the Alps.

2.5.1 Cost Externalization: Neglecting the Environment The documentary ‘Freightened’ released in 2016 (https://www.freightened.com; 27.02.2019) is a critical review of maritime transport. About 90% of global commodities travel by sea, particularly by container (about 60% of all seaborne cargo in  In June 2021, a narrow majority of Swiss voters (51.6%) rejected a law on reducing the emission of greenhouse gases (the CO2 bill) because fossil fuels could become more expensive. Four months later, in October 2021, gas, oil and petrol prices were on the upsurge due to a global critical supply situation; the negative vote in one small country was unable to influence market forces.  The Ukraine War in 2022 eventually resulted in even higher energy prices. 13

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2017; https://www.statista.com/topics/1367/container-­shipping/; 27.02.2019), although the number of container carriers is just under 10% of the global merchant fleet (ibid.). Their constantly increasing size (modern container ships can carry more than 15,000 containers) signifies an economy of scale and increases their attractiveness, although they put constraints on harbour facilities and canals. Long-­ distance transport for all sorts of goods is no more a decisive cost factor, thanks to globalism. But we must not overlook the risks. Maritime transport is deemed safe, and large ships may be more stable than small ones, but they are still prone to accidents. Disasters happen, and many of them make headlines. A well-documented case is the MV Rena that ran aground the Astrolabe Reef (Otaiti) in the Bay of Plenty (New Zealand) on October 5, 2011, broke apart on January 7, 2012, and eventually sank (Waitangi Tribunal, 2015, p.4). There was a significant oil spill and a large part of the cargo was lost. Large salvage operations were needed, and it is the shipping company’s responsibility to remove the wreck from the seabed (Waikato Times, 2012). A law suit followed, and the ship owners had to pay a fine of 600,000 NZ$14 (Waitangi Tribunal, 2015, p.6) – a modest sum if one considers the efforts of the clean-up and salvage of debris: 8000 volunteers removed over 1000 tons of oily waste (ibid.), and by 2015, the operation had cost more than 660 million NZ$ (Schiel et al., 2016, p.2). The most recent case has been the huge container ship Ever Given, that ran aground in and subsequently blocked the Suez Canal on March 23, 2021. Heavy winds and a sand storm were cited as major cause. Eventually afloat six days later, it reached its destination Rotterdam on July 29, delayed by more than four months. The Egyptians claimed 900 million US$ for compensation, but the real sum was not disclosed (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ever_Given#cite_note-­57; accessed 17.10.2021). The total damage to the economy cannot be calculated because of the complexity of the costs: ships that during that time were blocked at both entrances to the Suez Canal or took the route around the Cape, the cargo that could not be delivered in time (the problem of the global supply chain), fresh food that deteriorated and had to be discarded, etc. Who will eventually bear the cost? Probably the consumer and taxpayer, but to some extent also the environment through the prolonged burning of ship fuel. Such accidents (let alone the many oil tankers that have polluted the sea and coasts over the past 60–70 years) demonstrate that the cost of transport will eventually be much higher than economics of scale promise. Picking up the containers, removing a wreck from the sea, clearing up the coast etc. is extremely expensive, to say nothing of compensations to be paid for lost freight etc. While insurance companies will cover most of the expenses, this will drive the premium up with consequences for the cost structure of the firms. There is definitely a price to be paid and maybe (hopefully) also a lesson to be learnt. We do not hear much about the costs, but they must be huge – and who bears them?

14

 Roughly 400,000 US$.

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The dark side of the transport revolution (land, sea, air) has been the externalization of transportation costs in general which do not include the degradation of the environment.15 Externalizing costs today means to borrow from future generations: our children and grandchildren will have to bear the (financial and other) consequences and pay the bill. In maritime transport, externalization is particularly striking as “ship owners feel little need to green their fleets, as those hiring the vessels pay the fuel costs. When the price of bunker fuel (the sludgiest oil left over from refining) drops, as it has, eco resolve disappears” (Siegle, 2016). As one crew member in the film ‘Freightened’ remarked: “We are burning 200 tons a day. We cannot think about burning expensive fuel.” The most polluting fuel available is burnt on ships, to the detriment of air quality over the oceans.16 The environment therefore suffers from the externalization of costs, but consumers profit: goods in the shops would be substantially more expensive if they had to pay for the real costs. But this is only one aspect. Cheap transport makes it attractive for companies in the North to outsource production to countries with low labour costs, few or no labour laws, inexistent or weak trade unions, and low environmental standards. Apart from the environmental debt, the rich countries are also incurring a huge social debt. Not only do they externalize environmental costs, they also live at the expense of people in outsource countries, whose working and living conditions are worse than theirs. Globalization is a major culprit in this process. It promotes the externalization of the two major types of costs: environmental degradation and social deprivation. The reasoning is simple: consumers in the North request an increasing choice of cheap products that can only be manufactured in countries with low salary levels and bad working conditions, far away from consumers. Workers suffer because they are paid low wages and work long hours in often inadequate premises (light, air, sanitation, breaks etc.). The environment suffers in various ways: large-scale deforestation of tropical rainforests with limited agricultural potential (Miescher, 1996) for the benefit of mass-produce like soybeans, oil palms and cattle, unsustainable cultivation of raw material (cotton, fruit etc.) in unhealthy plantations (use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides), excessive space needed for mining minerals (deforestation), transport of raw materials to factories, of pieces to assembly plants, of final products to ports, distribution of end products to customers. This said, it is obvious that the classical capitalist system is flawed: while the consumer society in the North requests environmental and social standards, the

 Raw materials are transported through Europe to be transformed into consumer goods. In September 2017, the Swiss Radio’s consumer programme reported on apple purée and whipped cream (both made in Switzerland) that travel hundreds of kilometres in order to be filled into appropriate containers, and are re-imported (https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/unsinnige-transporte-schweizer-rahm-wird-in-italien-abgefuellt; 26.09.2018). The transportation costs are negligible (externalization hides part of the costs), and this transborder trade (export and re-import) inflates the trade statistics. The examples could easily be multiplied. 16  Regulations on air quality in ports have very low levels of tolerance and require the use of less polluting fuel, but they do not apply to international waters. 15

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customers are not prepared to pay the real costs.17 Adequate salaries, decent working hours, safe premises, less polluting fuel, bottling apple purée and whipped cream close to the consumer  – it all has its price. But the credo is still quantity before quality. On a regional scale, as was demonstrated by the two examples in Sect. 2.4.1, costs become very real and concern populations in mountain regions, for example. Let me therefore look more closely at the Swiss Alps and the major natural risks we face here: rockfalls, landslides, mudflows, and avalanches. They usually make national headlines, but only over a short period. Repair and maintenance are not breaking news any more, although the costs to protect the population have to be covered.

2.5.2 Costs in Swiss Mountains Mountains are a particularly sensitive ecosystem. As “the backbone of civilizations” (Stone, 1992, p.4), they play many roles on a global scale: water towers for human consumption, land use, and energy generation, weather makers for large parts of the world, and their biological diversity is one of mankind’s most valuable natural resources. They are also privileged places for spiritual and physical recreation (ibid.). Humans have been living in and with mountains since prehistoric times, and their activities have always put nature under considerable stress, as historical records document. The Alps, for example, suffered repeatedly from excessive deforestation and overuse from the fourteenth century onwards; underuse in the twentieth century, on the other hand, weakened the forests and threatened their stability (Messerli, 1989, pp.12 ff.). In the twentieth century, legislation favoured the growth of forests, and nowadays their spontaneous development on abandoned surfaces is not to everybody’s taste. Natural processes create our natural landscape, but it has been drastically transformed by human activities. As a result, various processes have accelerated, particularly (but not only) due to global warming. Landslides and mudflows in mountains and floods in the lowlands were the consequences of deforestation and overuse, long before global warming had become an issue. Rockfalls usually occur in spring and early summer after thawing, due to frost weathering. But in the wake of global warming, the gradual thawing of permafrost destabilizes not only rock glaciers but entire mountain sides and can provoke rockfalls. The Swiss research institute on snow and avalanches (SLF) shows that major rockfalls (>100,000 m3) during the period 1714–2015 started in June and lasted through summer, autumn and winter

 This also holds good for the meat on our tables, particularly when behind its industrial farms there is the destruction of the rainforest for soy fields, fodder that will be transported on ships around the world. To produce “1 kg of boneless meat in ruminant systems requires an average of 2.8 kg of grains that humans too can eat, and 3.2 kg in monogastric systems.” (FAO, 2018, p. 151). 17

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until April the following year (https://www.slf.ch/de/permafrost/permafrost-­und-­ naturgefahren/einfluss-­des-­hitzesommers-­2015-­auf-­felsstuerze.html; 16.01.2019). Such mass movements are difficult to forecast because they build up over long periods, decades to centuries and even thousands of years before they occur (ibid.). Certain events are predictable and precautionary measures can be taken. The course of certain avalanches is known because they descend every year at a certain time – they even have their names. Traditional settlements were therefore located outside such hazardous zones, and forests situated above the villages were protected: the Bannwald (literally: banned forest) had to be managed and could not be used commercially. Nowadays artificial obstacles are erected above the tree line in the source area of avalanches, and special metal nets shield routes from falling rocks. While passive actions (choosing the right place for buildings) are free of charge, all active precautionary measures come at a cost. The material for avalanche protection (steel or wooden grids) costs between 1500–2500 CHF per metre18; to this we have to add the building and manpower costs in difficult terrain (including helicopter transport of the material). To be effective, grids have to be constructed in parallel rows (Fig. 2.3). This can quickly amount to several hundred metres, costing millions of Swiss francs – a strain on the finances of small mountain communes. Besides, these structures need to be maintained, sometimes repaired during summer. The costs of maintenance in just one area of Brienz (Berne canton) are estimated at about 70,000 CHF per year, of which the commune has to pay about 16,000 CHF

Fig. 2.3  Avalanche protection east facing slope of the Soushorn, Lauterbrunnen, canton of Berne. (Photo WL, February 2019, the picture measures roughly 3.4 km from left to right) 18

 One Swiss franc is about equivalent to one US dollar.

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(http://www.brienzwiler.ch/images/gemeinde/informationen/2017/informationsschrift-­ gemeindeversammlung-­dezember-­2017.pdf; 23.01.2019). Avalanches sometimes reach the valley bottom and pose a threat to transportation. Road and railway tunnels can bypass risk areas, but they cost around 2.5 million CHF per 100 m – again a significant strain on local budgets. Even when cantons and Confederation offer substantial subsidies, communes have to bear their share as well. The best protection against avalanches and landslides is offered by forests. They cost about 10–20% of artificial protective structures and need maintenance measures every 10 to 30  years (http://www.schutzwald-­schweiz.ch/de/185.html; 23.01.2019). Temporary wooden obstacles can be erected during early afforestation phases, and by gradually rotting they will become part of the local ecosystem and need not be replaced. A different picture emerges in the case of major catastrophes that cause repair costs. The Mount Cengalo disaster (see Sect. 2.2) caused massive material damage (apart from the eight hikers who lost their lives), estimated at 41 million CHF (InfoBondo, 2018). In the main valley, 360,000 m3 of debris had been removed by October 2017, the workers toiling up to 20 hrs. and removing 15,000 m3 every day (InfoBondo, 2017). The debris had to be transported to a landfill for which land had quickly to be found and connected to the main road. Repair work included houses, electricity, water and road infrastructure, a new alarm system was installed and the retention basin built after the 2011 event enlarged. The commune worked out a project for protective constructions, estimated at 23 million CHF; added to the total damage of 41 million CHF (estimate), we arrive at approximately 64 million CHF (repair and precautionary costs combined). Solidarity across Switzerland was high, and almost 14 million CHF were donated through different organisations (InfoBondo, 2018), but even so, 50 millions remained to be covered by other sources. The situation varies, of course, from one event to another. Total costs in Randa amounted to 80 million CHF, of which about half went to the construction of the channel to drain the lake above the scree and a tunnel through the mountain as a precautionary measure. The new railway line cost another 16.5 million, altogether therefore almost 100 million CHF (both types of cost added up). A modest positive consequence is a small museum in the village that recalls the dramatic moment of the rockfall and the ensuing rescue operations, thus constituting an additional tourist attraction. Humans sometimes behave strangely in critical situations, usually because they naïvely think that they are better than nature and live under the illusion that a rockfall leaves us enough time to run away. In his book on rockfalls and human lives, the geologist Albert Heim discusses precisely this point (Heim, 1932). While most rockfalls have a natural cause, he lists man-made rockfalls that were usually due to quarrying (pp.180 ff.). In almost all cases, disasters could have been avoided if precautionary measures had been taken: propping overhanging parts and caverns in quarries, observing first signs of an imminent rockfall (individual rocks tumbling down the slopes, opening of fissures that turned to large cracks on the mountainside, or observing animal behaviour). The most important conclusion Heim draws is that

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“often humans behave in a very careless way and disturb the equilibrium of the slopes” (Heim, 1932, p.182; transl. WL). But the worst behaviour is due to human curiosity. During a rockfall in 1881, many locals watched the event from the opposite valley side, imagining that “there was still enough space between the slope and their place of observation” (ibid., p.204). But standing opposite the fall in its direct axis, they never realized that the debris would cross the valley floor and flood up the slope they were standing on (p.205), a miscalculation causing more than 100 fatalities.

2.6 Out of Sight – Out of Mind Rockfalls and landslides, avalanches and floods are spectacular events that quickly enter the headlines – and soon disappear again, often replaced by others. In each case, human responsibility must be assessed separately, but if they influence our life (as they often do), we are left with the costs and new insights about our relations to nature. Besides, there are other catastrophes that we do not register as such until they suddenly become manifest because a threshold was passed. They have been quietly creeping along, rarely monitored, and if scientists raised the issue, their warnings were often dismissed. They are no immediate threat but will ultimately affect the entire ecosystem. Examples are soil degradation, the extinction of animal and plant species, the overexploitation of resources, or waste deposits (landfills). Together with others they represent the overshoot of the system earth. Degenerated soils will produce less food, the loss of biodiversity reduces the pool of plants and animals essential for the survival of the ecosystem (including humans), the decline of honeybees (see footnote 8) threatens our food production (Benjamin & McCallum, 2009), the overexploitation of biological and mineral resources reduces the potential for future generations, and waste deposits are ticking time-bombs our children and grandchildren have to cope with. The issue of plastic garbage in the oceans is but the latest in a long series, but its effects on the marine fauna are becoming visible. It is not limited to the five major ocean gyres on and below the surface but occurs in Arctic and Antarctic waters; it can even be found at great depth. While exploring the Mariana Trench, (with 10,994 m below sea level the deepest known place on earth), the American explorer Victor Vescovo “found sea creatures, but also found a plastic bag and sweet wrappers” (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/science­environment-­48230157?utm_source=GA+newsletter&utm_campaign=ee86330a28-­ EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_05_16_08_21&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_ ea49f5d646-­ee86330a28-­395046933; accessed 18.10.2021). But plastic and microplastic occur also in rivers and lakes, find their way into the groundwater and into the fish we eat – human thoughtlessness backfires. Nuclear accidents such as Cernobyl in 1986 (Brown, 2019; Chernousenko, 1991; Gould, 1990) and Fukushima in 2011 are a separate category. They are sudden events with long-term and unforeseeable consequences, and these two cases are

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only the tip of the iceberg. “The total emissions from nuclear tests were a thousand times greater than emissions from Cernobyl. … Globally, atmospheric tests released at least 20 billion curies of radioactive iodine alone. Cernobyl issued far less at 45 million curies of iodine-131. Three quarters of fallout from nuclear testing landed in the Northern Hemisphere” (Brown, 2019, p.248). We are far from having overcome the consequences; Brown (2019) has unveiled details about ignorance, wishful thinking, ideological stubbornness, and political playing down the accident. Even if politicians pretend that they control the situation, they are like the sorcerer’s apprentice in Goethe’s famous ballad: they do not know what to do and believe the master will find the solution. They are maybe aware that they are putting a heavy burden on coming generations, but they do not know which master will help them. Compared to such man-made catastrophes it looks comparatively easy to shut down and dismantle a nuclear power station, an extremely expensive and time-­ consuming task (we are talking not of years but of decades). And a major predicament remains unsolved: where the radioactive waste (from both operating and decommissioned plants) shall be stored without causing harm to the living world in the coming centuries continues to be a mystery: nobody seems to have an idea. The people demand answers, but the politicians are at a loss. And nobody wants it in his/ her backyard. The optimistic idea that waste can be discarded into nature without causing problems to people had met with a serious backlash in Minamata (Kyushiu, Japan) in 1956. People started to fall ill and die from mercury poisoning, mercury contained in fish they were eating. The fish had been caught in Minamata Bay where the effluents of the Chisso chemical factory ended up. Thousands of inhabitants were affected, and pregnant mothers passed it on to their unborn babies.19 About 900 people died (the exact death toll is not known). Although the pollution has been eliminated, the process of victim certification is ongoing. By March 31, 2017, 20,321 persons had applied to be recognized, but only 2,280 had been accepted with 2,104 still on the waiting list.20 The vast majority (78%) were not eligible for compensation (https://www.minamatadiseasemuseum.net; accessed 20.01.2022). Although the toxic effect of the effluent had been known, the company had kept silent and after 1951 even deposited mercury directly into the bay. To name it ‘Minamata disease’ is sheer hypocrisy as mercury poisoning can occur everywhere (in 1965, for example, on Agano River, Niigata Prefecture, Honshu west coast; ibid.). The Minamata case may be due to ignorance, negligence and discretion,21 but fish poisoning can also occur from badly managed landfills anywhere in the world,  The same happened after nuclear tests and the many accidents in nuclear plants.  In February 2022, 2,283 had received compensation and 1,428 were still on the waiting list (Mail by Koizumi Hatsue of the Minamata Museum, 13 February, 2022). Bureaucracy is slow (everywhere) and the numbers diminish thanks to natural fluctuations 21  “Even after Chisso knew the factory wastewater was the cause of Minamata disease, it did not suspend its operations. In the judgement in the first Minamata disease trial, this type of negligent corporate morality was severely criticized.” (https://www.minamatadiseasemuseum.net/10-thingsto-know; accessed 18.10.2021) 19 20

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particularly if they were established decades ago. But clearing landfills also comes at a cost. Anyway, the fish from Minamata Bay are edible again and legislation has been tightened (Mail Koizumi Hatsue, Minamata Museum, 13 February, 2022). There are many more cases of ‘out of sight – out of mind’ disasters, and each of them illustrates the extent to which the human race has in an egoistic manner marginalized the natural environment, overestimating its own abilities. This is marginalization in the mind with concrete consequences for future generations, and it is the way modern capitalism functions (see Patel & Moore, 2018).

2.7 Conclusion Humans are vulnerable and despite many efforts they remain subject to natural forces. Their actions often have unintended negative consequences, due to neglect, curiosity and the search for the limits. But is it really wise to go to the limits (of knowledge) and beyond? Why can humans not learn from past experience and overcome the inertia in thinking? Environmental history is full of examples that they do not, even before the twenty-first century. Instead of choosing new safer settlement sites, people in the lowlands of the Rhine and Schelde deltas (today’s Netherlands) constructed higher dykes after catastrophic floods od 1014 and 1134, but they were insufficient and could not prevent floods in the following centuries (Winiwarter & Bork, 2019, pp.  18  f.). Even the improved dykes of the 19th and 20th centuries could not stop the 1953 flood that claimed 1,835 lives (ibid., p. 19). The obsession with permanent innovation results in a general rush to test and expand limits and take risks, and there are even seemingly objective motives: the Earth and her resources are limited, but the growing population demands more food, settlement space, goods and energy, and this leads us to seek and test out these limits, particularly with the existing growth-credo. We blindly believe in technological progress which should allow us to push them even further. The law of diminishing returns should teach us a lesson: more input does not increase output. The reality is that in the first half of the twentieth century, the annual consumption of fossil energy grew by 1.7% and resulted in 2.13% economic growth per year (factor 1.25), whereas after World War II, annual fossil energy use grew by 4.5% and the economy by 4.18% (factor 0.93; Bonneuil, 2017, p. 57). Capitalism is approaching its limits as it becomes increasingly difficult to pay the price: Patel and Moore (2018, p. 135) foretell an uncomfortable truth: “To ask for capitalism to pay for care is to call for an end to capitalism” From an ecological perspective we can replace ‘care’ by ‘nature’ to see the end of capitalism. In the early 1980s, the Swiss author Franz Hohler (1996) published a collection of short stories, one of which relates to the topic of this paper. In ‘The Reconquest’ (German original Die Rückeroberung) he describes how the city of Zürich is gradually being taken over by nature. First, an eagle nests opposite the chronicler’s house, further eagles do the same across the town; this is followed by deer that roam around the city. Next arrive wolves, killing not only deer but also people, wolves are

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followed by bears and snakes. The population gets increasingly scared and calls for measures, but to no avail: the animals cannot be exterminated. People therefore begin to leave the city. The ultimate blow are fast growing plants that begin to clad the buildings and cannot be eradicated. At the end of the story, most of the city is all quiet because the people (apart from the chronicler) have abandoned it and the trams no longer circulate. He reflects if it made sense to leave the city or if this was just the beginning of something that would spread inevitably (Hohler, 1996, p. 23).22 The story is, of course, fiction, but it is remarkable for two reasons. First, it was originally published in 1982, at a time when the ecological consciousness was just about to emerge. Warnings such as Rachel Carson’s book on pesticides (Carson, 1962) or the report of the Club of Rome (Meadows et al., 1972) had been ridiculed, rejected and ignored. And second, predators that had been eradicated through hunting in the nineteenth century (lynx, wolf, bear, bearded vulture) are now back to Switzerland (very much to the displeasure of farmers), and we are gradually getting used to their presence. Nature has definitely started to hit back and demarginalize itself, as uncompromisingly as humans used to treat nature, showing that in reality humanity is marginal.

References Anderson, E.  N. (1996). Ecologies of the heart. Emotion, belief, and the environment. Oxford University Press. Avallone, G., & Leonardi, E. (2018). Anthropocene? More like Capitalocene. Il Manifesto (https:// global.ilmanifesto.it/anthropocene-more-like-capitalocene/; Accessed April 18, 2019). Benjamin, A., & McCallum, B. (2009). A world without bees. Guardian Books. Bonneuil, C. (2017). Capitalocène. Réflexions sur l’échange écologique inégal et le crime climatique à l’âge de l’Anthropocène. EcoRev, 1(44), 52–60. Brown, K. (2019). Manual for survival. A Chernobyl guide to the future. Allen Lane. Bundesamt für Landwirtschaft. (2019). Chlorothalonil. (https://www.blv.admin.ch/blv/de/home/ lebensmittel-undernaehrung/lebensmittelsicherheit/stoffe-im-fokus/pflanzenschutzmittel/ chlorothalonil.html; Accessed March 29, 2020). Carson, R. (1962). Silent spring. Penguin (repr. 2009). Chernousenko, V. M. (1991). Chernobyl. Insight from the inside. Springer. Curson, P. (1989). Introduction. In J.  I. Clarke, P.  Curson, S.  L. Kayastha, & P.  Nag (Eds.), Population and disaster, IBG special publication series 22 (pp. 1–23). Blackwell. Dalton, J. (2018). Humans have used a year’s worth of Earth’s resources in just seven months. The Independent. Edwards, P.  J., & Abivardi, C. (1998). The value of biodiversity: Where ecology and economy blend. Biological Conservation, 83(3), 239–246. Encycl. Brit. (2014). Encyclopedia Britannica. Ultimate reference suite DVD. FAO. (2018). World livestock: Transforming the livestock sector through the sustainable development goals. Food and Agricultural Organization. Geipel, R. (1992). Naturrisiken. Katastrophenbewältigung im sozialen Umfeld.

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Gould, P. (1990). Fire in the rain. The democratic consequences of Chernobyl. Polity Press. Heim, A. (1932). Bergsturz und Menschenleben. Fretz & Wasmuth. Hickman, L. (2011). The 1847 lecture that predicted human-induced climate change. The Guardian. (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2011/jun/20/george-­perkins-­marsh-­climate-­ speech; Accessed August 31, 2019). Hohler, F. (1996). Die Rückeroberung. Erzählungen, München, Deutscher Taschenbuch Verlag, 2nd ed. (Original: Hamburg Luchterhand Literaturverlag 1982). IMF. (2016). After Paris: Fiscal, macroeconomic and financial implications of climate change, IMF staff discussion note SDN 16/01. International Monetary Fund. InfoBondo. (2017). Rafforzamento delle opere di premunizione per Bondo, Spino e Sottoponte / Bei Bondo werden weitere Deponiestandorte gesucht, October 17, 2017. (https://www.comunedibregaglia.ch/images/stories/avvisi_2017/infobondo_17.10.2017.pdf; Accessed January 23, 2019 – the site has since been closed). InfoBondo. (2018). Bondo – a un anno dalla frana del Pizzo Cengalo / Bondo – ein Jahr nach dem Bergsturz am Piz Cengalo. (https://www.comunedibregaglia.ch/images/stories/avvisi_2018/ infoBondo_13.8.2018-senza-contatti.pdf; Accessed January 23, 2019 – the site has since been closed). Kates, R. (1962). Hazard and choice perception in flood plan management (p. 78). University of Chicago, Department of Geography Research Paper. Kates, R. (1967). The perception of storm hazards on the shores of magalopolis. In D. Lowenthal (Ed.), Environmental perception and behavior (Vol. 109, pp. 60–74). University of Chicago, department of geography research paper. Lear, L. (Ed.). (1998). Lost woods. The discovered writings of Rachel Carson. Beacon Press. Leimgruber, W. (1994). Marginality and marginal regions: Problems of definition. In C.  Y. D.  Chang, S.  C. Sue, & Y.  Y. Lu (Eds.), Marginality and development issues in marginal regions. Proceedings of the IGU study group ‘Development issues in marginal regions’ (pp. 1–18). National Taiwan University. Leimgruber, W. (2004). Values, migration, and environment: An essay on driving forces behind human decisions and their consequences. In J.  D. Unruh, M.  S. Krol, & N.  Kliot (Eds.), Environmental change and its implications for population migrations (Vol. 20, pp. 247–266). Advances in global change research. Maidl, E., Wiederkehr, B., & Buchecker, M. (2016). Ergebnisbericht über die Bevölkerungsbefragung «Leben mit Naturgefahren», WSL Berichte 40, Birmensdorf. Eidg. Forschungsanstalt für Wald, Schnee und Landschaft. Meadows, D., Meadows, D., Zahn, E., & Milling, P. (1972). The limits to growth. Universe Books. Messerli, P. (1989). Mensch und Natur im alpinen Lebensraum. Risiken. Miescher, D. (1996). Die Tropen – ein ökologisch benachteiligter Raum? PhD Thesis University of Fribourg/CH. NASA. (2019). Climate change: how do we know? https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ (Accessed September 02, 2019). Patel, R., & Moore, J. W. (2018). A history of the world in seven cheap things. A guide to capitalism, nature, and the future of the planet. University of California Press. PERMOS. (2019). Permafrost in Switzerland 2014/2015 to 2017/2018. In J. Noetzli, C. Pellet, & B. Staub (Eds.), Glaciological report permafrost no. 16–19 of the cryospheric Commission of the Swiss Academy of sciences. https://doi.org/10.13093/permos-­rep-­2019-­16-­19 Saarinen, T. (1966). Perception of the drought hazard on the Great Plains (p. 106). University of Chicago, Department of Geography Research Paper. Schiel, D. R., Ross, D. N., & Battershill, C. N. (2016). Environmental effects of the MV Rena shipwreck: Cross-disciplinary investigations of oil and debris impacts on a coastal ecosystem. New Zealand Journal of Marine and Freshwater Research, 50(1), 1–9. Schindler, C., Cuénod, Y., Eisenlohr, T., & Joris, C.-L. (1993). Die Ereignisse vom 18. April und 19. Mai 1991 bei Randa (VS) – ein atypischer Bergsturz in Raten. Eclogae Geologicae Helvetiae, 86(3), 643–665.

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Siegle, L. (2016). The eco-guide to cargo ships. The Guardian, 2. Stone, P. B. (Ed.). (1992). The state of the world’s mountains. A global report. Zed Books. Thomas, W.  L. (1956). Man’s role in changing the face of the Earth. Chicago, University of Chicago Press (retrieve from https://archive.org/details/in.gov.ignca.5089/page/n5; Accessed August 31, 2019). Tribunal, W. (2015). The final report on the MV Rena and Motiti Island claims. Lower Hutt (New Zealand). https://forms.justice.govt.nz/search/Documents/WT/wt_DOC_85134478/Final%20 Report%20on%20the%20MV%20Rena%20W.pdf; Accessed April 11, 2019. Tripathy-Lang, A. (2021). The difficulty of defining the Anthropocene. Eos, 102. https://doi. org/10.1029/2021EO156556 UNDP. (2007). Human development report 2007/2008. Fighting climate change: Human solidarity in a divided world. United Nations Development Programme. UNDP. (2018). Human development indices and indicators. 2018 statistical update. United Nations Development Programme. Waikato Times. (2012, January 10). Sinking Rema leaking oil. (https://archive. is/20120914012410/http://www.stuff.co.nz/waikato-times/news/6232985/Split-Rena-sinking# selection-3471.0-3471.6). Winiwarter, V., & Bork, H.-R. (2019). Geschichte unserer Umwelt. 66 Reisen durdch die Zeit (3rd ed.). Theiss. WWF. (2016). Living planet report 2016. Risk and resilience in a new era. WWF. (2018). Living planet report 2018: Aiming higher. Gland.

Chapter 3

Climate Change and Health Impacts on Vulnerable Communities: The Case of Kala-Azar (Visceral Leishmaniasis) in Nepal Bandana Pradhan and Birgit Kuna

3.1 Introduction Nepal has experienced climate change, particularly global warming over the past years. This change has brought temperature extremities across the geographic regions of the country. According to DHM (2017), the temperature records show that most of the hill and mountain regions have experienced increasing warmer days and warmer nights, as well as an increasing duration of warm spells, while the duration of cold spells has increased in the Tarai region. On the other hand, the cool days have decreased in the country’s most parts and the cool nights have increased in some of its northern and northwestern mountain parts but decreased significantly in the southeastern Tarai region (lowlands). Unlike temperatures, the mean annual precipitation has shown decreasing trend across the country. But extremities are also found in the precipitation pattern among the geographic regions, which is declining in the hill and mountain regions, but is rising in the Tarai. These changes have health impacts across different parts of the country, offering ideal opportunities for vectors and vector-borne diseases, favored by the distinct seasons and climatic zones. The impact of climate change has exacerbated the problem at different levels by spreading the vectors in different places including mostly remote and marginal areas and people, and seasons. Kala-azar (Visceral Leishmaniasis) is one of them. This is one of the neglected tropical vector-borne diseases caused by different species of the protozoan parasite Leishmania, which are obligate intracellular protozoan parasites transmitted by the bites of infected female sandflies. This vector is found in different areas ranging from the Tarai B. Pradhan (*) Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal B. Kuna German Aerospace Center, Bonn, Germany © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 P. K. Pradhan, W. Leimgruber (eds.), Nature, Society, and Marginality, Perspectives on Geographical Marginality 8, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21325-0_3

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lowlands to higher elevations of the mountain region (DoHS, 2015). It is climatesensitive (Adhikari et al., 2010), as it affects the epidemiology in several ways, such as: (i) change in temperature, rainfall and humidity can have strong effects on vectors and reservoir hosts by altering their distribution and influencing their survival and population size; (ii) small fluctuations in temperature can have a profound effect on the developmental cycle of Leishmania promastigotes in sandflies, allowing the transmission of the parasite in areas not previously endemic for the disease; and (iii) drought, famine and flood can lead to massive displacement and migration of people to areas with transmission of Leishmania, and poor nutrition could compromise their immunity. This paper aims at analyzing climate change and the health impact of the Kala-­ azar disease on people and places, and its distribution pattern of disease cases in the geographic regions and districts of Nepal.

3.2 Data and Methods Data for this paper were drawn from publicly available secondary sources. Two such sources are the statistics of the health and population and of the meteorological departments of Nepal, which conducted several relevant studies in the country. Data on road density, healthcare service density, poverty, landholding size, and housing condition have been acquired from the related public sources, and these attributes have been used to define poor, and marginal people and places in this paper. The analysis has been performed at the ecological level based on the availability of district level data. The country is divided into three broad physiographic or ecological regions, mountains, hills, and the Tarai lowlands, defined by altitude from north to south respectively, and each region is subdivided into several administrative districts. These divisions imply climate variation and change, affecting the distribution of Kala-azar and its impacts on the health particularly of the poor people living in the scattered villages of remote areas in Nepal. Such areas of the hills and mountains, which have no road connections and thus must walk several hours on foot to reach to health, market, and other service centers, can be defined as marginal areas. Even in the Tarai plain region where access to facilities centers is not a problem, lower castes and poor people are often excluded from communal activities or community development works, can also be defined as marginal people.

3.3 Results and Analysis 3.3.1 Geographic Regions and Climatic Seasons In Nepal, three broad geographic regions are defined loosely by altitude: the Tarai region ranging between 60–600 masl (meter above sea level), the Hill region from >600–5870  m, and the Mountain (Himalaya) region above 5870  m (Burathokey,

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1968). In terms of area coverage, the Hills with 61,345 km2 is the largest occupying 42%, followed by the Mountain region (51,817 km2) with 35% and the Tarai region (34,019 km2) with 23%. The Tarai in the south borders with India’s northern states, and the northern Himalayas adjoin Tibet, China. Regarding population, the Tarai dominates with slightly over 50%, followed by the Hills with 43% and the Mountain region with only 7%. The population density varies accordingly: in the Tarai it amounts to 392 persons per km2, in the Hills 187 persons per km2, whereas the Mountains region has the lowest density of 35 persons per km2 (CBS, 2012). Altitude changes rapidly from 60 to 8,850 masl over a south-north span of 130–200 km and so the climate varies remarkably from sub-tropical in the Tarai to arctic in the high Himalaya. The country experiences four broad seasons, based on rainfall and temperature patterns. The winter season (December–February) is the coldest and driest season, the pre-monsoon season (March–May) is characterized by hot weather and thunderstorms, the Monsoon season (June–September) is rainy, hot, and humid, and the post-monsoon season (October–November) has warm weather with showers.

3.3.2 Climate Change and Extreme Climate Trends Nepal has experienced a gradually warmer climate over the years. According to the study by MoPE (2017), based on the 93 metrological stations throughout the country from 1971 to 2014, the annual average maximum temperature shows an increasing trend with 0.056 °C per year according to altitude. This average annual trend varies among the three broad physiographic regions and reaches 0.021  °C in the Tarai, 0.052 °C in the Hills, and 0.086 °C in the Mountains (DHM, 2017). Unlike temperature, the average annual precipitation shows a decreasing trend in the hill and mountain regions, except for the Tarai region (MoPE, 2016). The mean annual decrease of precipitation for the country is 1.3 mm per year. The average monsoon days in the country are 102. However, the analysis of the last 40 years’ data indicates that there is a fluctuation in onset of Monsoon of 5 days per decade. The annual mean precipitation is around 1,858 mm, ranging from above 5,000 mm to less than 150 mm (DHM, 2017). Nepal witnesses extreme climate trends. Temperature extremities are observed in most parts of the country. According to DHM (2017), the temperature records show that most hill and mountain areas have experienced increasing warm days and warm nights, as well as increasing longer warm spells. The length of cold spells is increasing in the Tarai region. On the other hand, cool days are decreasing in most districts, while cool nights are increasing in some of the northern and northwestern parts but are decreasing significantly in the southeastern parts. Extreme precipitation also varies greatly in different parts of the country. There is an increasing trend in extreme precipitation particularly in the northern and northwestern parts. The northwestern parts also show an increasing trend in number of rainy days, whereas very wet days and extremely wet days are decreasing significantly in the northern parts.

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Consecutive wet days are increasing in the western and eastern parts, but decreasing in such extremities particularly in the northwestern parts. According to MoPE (2004), Nepal’s Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission is only around 0.027% of the total global emissions of 38,135 million metric ton carbon dioxide equivalent. Annual carbon dioxide emissions (tonnes) per capita in the country is also low (7–11), followed by Kalikot (57.9%), Bajhang (56.8%), Humla (56%) and Darchula (53%) of the Far West, belonging to the high to medium groups of Kala-­ azar cases. The districts with the least proportion of poor as a share of the respective district’s population are Kaski (4%), Ilam (7.3%), Lalitpur (7.6%), Kathmandu (7.6%) and Chitwan (8.9%), where no case of Kala-azar was reported in 2019 (Fig.  3.3). Table  3.1 shows the distribution of poverty features by physiographic region in Nepal. Second, poor road connections and quality are major constraints as they hinder the communities from accessing healthcare service locations and other services in Table 3.1  Distribution of poverty incidence in Nepal, 2011 Region Mountain Hill Tarai

Poverty incidence % 42.3 24.3 23.4

Distribution of poor % 11.8 42.8 45.4

Source: CBS (2012)  US Dollar 1 ≈ 85.4 NPR in 2012.  Non-food items include clothing, shelter, etc.

3 4

Distribution of population% 7.0 44.2 48.7

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Nepal. The road network is 8.5  km/100  km2 or 21.3  km per 1000 people (DoR, 2018). The district headquarters, where most of the basic facilities such as health, education, agriculture services, market, bank, communications, etc. are located, have poor road connections. In the hills and in the Tarai, the population pressure on the road system is above the national average value (Table 3.2). Limited or lack of road connectivity is the most hindrance to the people living in the scattered villages to the healthcare facilities particularly in the hills. Third, the prevalence of Kala-azar is strongly associated with access to healthcare facilities in Nepal. The primary healthcare facility is provided to the people through the health post located in each center of the village administrative area (CBS, 2013). According to the Nepal Living Standards Survey 2010–2011, only 61.8% of households in Nepal can reach the nearest public health posts within half an hour, with significant urban and rural differences (Cao et al., 2021). Healthcare units are often added in rural areas across the country whenever needed, but this expansion has not been matched by an expansion in the domestic resources, workers and supplies, and the available resources are not efficiently distributed (Rai et al., 2001). Many healthcare units are poorly utilized, mainly due to the lack of trained health workers and insufficient medical supplies, as well as to the location sites often far away from many villages. A study by Boelaert et al. (2009) indicated that the reasons for not accessing healthcare services were insufficient drugs (61%), distance (22%), staff unavailability (19%), sickness (9%), money (7%), and facility hours (4%). A significant portion of the rural population still rely on local traditional healers, which results in an under-utilization of the existing health posts in many remote rural areas. One of the reasons of the fast diffusion of Kala-azar infection in Nepal can be attributed to the rapid spread in the neighboring northern states of India and the open border between Nepal and India (Rai et al., 2001). Population pressure on the healthcare facilities is high in the districts of the Tarai region and Kathmandu valley with their high population size (Table 3.3). In the mountains and hills, on the other hand, it is below the national average value due to low population density, but the scattered settlement is the main reason for poor access or long distance to the existing healthcare facilities in these regions (MoPE, 2016). Fourth, poor housing (roof type, wall structure) and domestic sanitary conditions such as lack of waste management or open sewerage may increase sandfly breeding Table 3.2  Distribution of roads and road accessibility in Nepal

Mountain Hill Tarai KTM Valley Country

Population (2011) 1,781,792 11,394,007 13,318,705 2,517,023

Area (km2) 51,817 61,346 34,018 899

Total road (km) 1605 7286 4422 501

No. of persons served/km road 1110 1564 3012 5028

26,494,504

147,181

13,448

1970

Source: DoR (2018)

Road density/100 km2 3 12 13 56 9

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Table 3.3  Healthcare service accessibility in Nepal Region Mountain Hill Tarai Kathmandu valley Country

Total healthcare units 578 2037 1478 182 4275

Population/healthcare unit 3083 4358 9011 13,830 6198

Source: DoHS (2015)

and resting sites, therefore facilitating their access to humans. Sandflies are attracted to crowded housing as these provide a good source of blood-meals. Mud walls, palpable dampness in houses, and peri-domestic vegetation may increase the risk of infection, enhancing the density and prolonging the survival of the sandfly vector. Human behavior such as sleeping outside or on the ground, may increase risk (Younis et al., 2020). These conditions are usually seen in the poor rural villages of the districts of Tarai region. Mud bonded bricks/stone houses make up 49.5% of all houses in rural Nepal, 93% in the mountains, 65% in the hills, and 17% in the Tarai of all houses (CBS, 2014). Buildings in rural Nepal are mostly old; about 42% were built between 5–10 years ago, the remaining 58% are than 10 years old (of which more than 17% as old as 21–50 years). Poor houses can also be described by roof type, thatch or straw roofs, mud roof with poor maintenance. On average, about one-fourth of the houses in all three regions have thatch/straw roofs (CBS, 2012). These houses with damp earthen floors in rural settings are common and are an ideal breeding site for sandflies. Fifth, access to or ownership of land is a resource or wealth. Per capita cultivate land in rural Nepal, where agriculture is the mainstay of the majority of population, and this can be used to the indicate poverty level or the capacity to afford health services. The cultivated land is often measured with respect to the total area. For instance, in some districts of eastern and central Tarai, eastern hills and Kathmandu valley, over 50% land are under cultivation, whereas in the entire Tarai region, this is only 30% land. Un-utilized arable land is the consequence of lacking irrigation, short supply of labor, etc. Besides, the quality (productiveness) of cultivated land is usually poorer in the hill and mountain slope areas than in the plains. And finally, the per capita land of 0.795 ha per household (average household size: 5.6) is very small (Table 3.4), just about enough to ensure subsistence production for the families. Besides, about 23% of households are landless (no land of their own for crop production); this figure is even higher, if Dalits and ethnic communities of both Hills and Tarai are considered (Dhakal, 2011). There is a huge disparity in the distribution of cultivated land among the farm households. The study of the Leitner Center for International Law and Justice (2011) found that the bottom 47% of agricultural households control only 15% of agricultural land as against the top 5% who control more than 37%.

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Table 3.4  Distribution of per capita cultivated land by physiographic region, Nepal Region Mountain Hill Tarai Country

Cultivated land ha/person 0.128 0.093 0.102 0.099

Cultivated land ha/hhs 3.341 0.621 0.563 0.795

Man/Land ratio (persons/ha) 8.3 11.6 10.0 10.5

Source: CBS (2014)

Finally, other factors include (i) the epidemic of visceral leishmaniasis which is often associated with migration and the movement of non-immune people into areas with existing transmission cycles, and (ii) the incidence of leishmaniasis that can be affected by environmental changes such as urbanization, and the human incursion into forested areas. The former is usually associated with the people who migrate to cities within the country and other countries for employment. Migrants for work are of two types: seasonal workers particularly during the off-cultivation season as described above, and migrant workers who often go to foreign countries (India, Gulf region, east Asia) for longer periods, more than 2 years (Pradhan et al., 2019). Regarding the second factor, Nepal is a poorly urbanized country with only around 18% of the total population living in urban areas, but the urbanization rate with above 5.6% per annum is rapid (CBS, 2012; Pradhan, 2013). Higher urbanization has occurred in small cities and towns, as well as in new areas accessed by roads, the latter causing clearance of the forest areas (Sharma & Pradhan, 2016).

3.3.6 Control Measures According to the World Health Organization (WHO, 2014), the strategy for VL control broadly includes three main activities: interruption of transmission by reducing vector population through indoor residual insecticides; early diagnosis and complete treatment of VL cases, and a health education program to create community awareness. In 2005, the government of Nepal together with the governments of Bangladesh and India launched a joint initiative to eliminate VL as a public health problem and aimed to reduce the disease incidence to less than one visceral leishmaniasis case per 10,000 population at the district level by the end of 2015. Nepal achieved this target in 2013 and it has been sustained since then. The program promoted education to increase awareness of the disease. It adopted control measures based on health education material which specifically targets communities and promotes community participation. Following the WHO recommendations, the Kala-azar elimination program replaced miltefosine with a single dose infusion of liposomal amphotericin B (AmBisome) as first line treatment in 2016  in Nepal. Synthetic pyrethroid has been used for vector control using indoor residual spraying in the country.

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However, the Epidemiology and Disease Control Division of Nepal conducted an independent assessment of Kala-azar elimination program in the year 2017 to review and assess the progress of the elimination program (MoHP, 2014). The program initially identified 12 districts of the central and south-eastern Tarai region as Kala-azar endemic, and in 2016 six additional districts from the hills were included, making a total of 18 districts. The Government of Nepal was committed to eliminate VL by 2020, but the rise in incidence of cases from non-program districts has been a major obstacle in achieving the set target.

3.4 Discussion Kala-azar remains a public health concern in Nepal. VL cases have been reported in increasing numbers in the country’s eastern hills in 2000. This is a challenge to the ongoing VL elimination program—as they could constitute a reservoir of future re-­ emergence if local transmissions are confirmed. Global warming could play a vital role in the growing adaptability of the vectors which will subsequently increase the habitat area for the vector borne diseases pathogens worldwide (Dhimal et al., 2015; Campbell-Lendrum et al., 2015; Ogden, 2017; Medlock & Leach, 2015). Leishmaniasis is often described as the disease of the poor. Regarding Kala-azar infection in two districts such as Okhaldhunga and Bhojpur in the eastern hills of Nepal (Fig. 3.3), six cluster villages and their 122 households can be described as poor and remote places in terms of their features, such as accessibility on foot, altitude ranging 378–1583 m, thatched roofs, mud wall and wooden houses, agriculture, and daily wage labor as main occupations, owning domestic animals, sleeping on the ground, etc. (Ostyn et al., 2015). The two districts are non-adjacent, lie north of the Tarai in the hill region which makes the transition between the southern tropical plains and the northern cold high mountains. In other parts of the country, no information on the distinctive areas of the poor people is available; hence, the regions and their districts have been defined by some parameters such as poverty, road accessibility, health accessibility, housing condition, and landholding distribution. The elimination of VL is directly related to poverty alleviation: a reduction of the poverty incidence by 10% will lead to a 16% reduction of VL incidence. The strategy for disease control or elimination should shift from traditional disease-­ centered approaches to a holistic approach that can break the links between poverty and VL (Adhikari et al., 2010). In the future, leishmaniasis could be seen not only as a disease of the impoverished rural dwellers, but also as a global public health problem that can affect people in developed rich nations. In Nepal, initially Kala-azar cases were detected in some districts of its sub-­ tropical Tarai region, from where it spread to the cool hill areas. Local transmission of Leishmania donovani is ongoing in the hill districts. Three arguments have been forwarded (Ostyn et al., 2015): Firstly, there were several VL cases in permanent residents of settlements in the hills, most of them relatively recent, people who had not travelled to known endemic areas. Secondly, a considerable number of

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asymptomatic residents have been exposed to Leishmania sp. and in two of them L. donovani was confirmed. Thirdly, P. argentipes sand flies were present in these hill districts. The study of DoHS (2006) looked at the economic impact of VL in Nepal and found that the average VL treatment cost incurred by patients was greater than the annual household per capita income. Although healthcare services are generally provided free of cost in developing countries including Nepal, affected households still incur a substantial amount of financial burden due to treatment of episodes of leishmaniasis. A study in Nepal by Adhikari et al. (2010) showed that indirect costs increased from 47% in 2006 to 53% in 2010. This may be because most affected individuals live in remote villages far away from the free government healthcare facilities, which are usually located in the cities and urban centers. Because leishmaniasis is primarily more common in rural areas and villages, many of the affected individuals patronize the more expensive and often inadequate private health-care facilities located in these villages. Although information on Kala-azar impacts on men and women is lacking in our paper, some studies reveal no difference in infection rates between men and women. However, infected women have less access to healthcare services and are less likely to report to a health center even when available (Okwor & Uzonna, 2016). Men are usually engaged in productive labor outside the home, whereas women are often involved in unpaid reproductive labor (work done within the home such as cooking, care of children and livestock, and gardening/farming). As a result, many women lack the financial resources for travel, clinical care, and drugs and usually will not be willing to spend the limited cash resources on their health needs. Furthermore, gender differences affect how illness is experienced, treatment-seeking behaviors, nature of treatment, a well as care and support received from family, health caregiver, and the community (Paudel et al., 2012). The connection between poverty and the risk of developing leishmaniasis is very strong and mediated through many factors: ecological factors such as poor housing conditions, including cracked walls that provide resting places for sandflies, damp earthen floors that enhance vector survival, and improper doors that allow sandflies to enter (Adhikari et al., 2010). Also, socioeconomic factors such as, literacy, and the type of work have been shown to influence the incidence of leishmaniasis. Poor sanitation and irregular garbage collection provide sandfly breeding grounds and are associated with increased risk for contracting leishmaniasis in Latin America, with highest cases reported from Brazil (PAHO, 2018). Although insecticide bed nets have been shown to be effective in the control of leishmaniasis, most families living in endemic areas cannot afford bed nets. Urbanization and migration from rural areas to peri-urban cities with inadequate housing and sanitary conditions have led to increased epidemics of leishmaniasis in different parts of the world (Desjeux, 2001). This is also the case in endemic districts of Nepal.

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3.5 Conclusion Nepal has experienced climate change, particularly warm climate over the past decades, affecting the health of people. The spatial distribution of VL in the districts of Nepal is increasing. There is no doubt that early detection of the cases and treatment are essential, but they should not be the only priority. Priority should be given to the elimination of the diseases though preventive measures (planned entomological surveillance) and awareness programs (keep surrounding of houses clean, use bed net, keep domestic animal sheds away from residence, a balanced diet, etc.) to the village people. The transmission of the parasites is complex due to the varying ecological relationships between human and/or animal hosts, parasites, and sandflies. Moreover, vector-borne diseases like leishmaniases are intricately linked to environmental changes and socioeconomic risk factors, advocating the importance of the One Health approach to control these diseases. The development of an accurate, fast, and cost-effective diagnostic tool for leishmaniases is a priority, and the implementation of various control measures such as animal sentinel surveillance systems is needed to better detect, prevent, and respond to the (re-)emergence of leishmaniases. Less than one-third of the households have access to services of the government health facility in Nepal. The health of poor and marginal people having less adaptative capacity is affected more due to climate change. If the key factors such as limited or no drug supply, staff unavailability, long distance to health institutions and inconvenient health facility hours were addressed in the health policy, access to public healthcare services would be achieved. However, more studies on specifically poor and marginal communities and their living conditions (socioeconomic and sanitation features) and the vector-borne diseases like Kala-azar need to be carried out. Acknowledgements We extend our thanks to Dr. Puspa Sharma, Associate Professor of Geography, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal for constructing the map of Nepal for this paper.

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Chapter 4

Cryosphere Changes, Cascading Disasters, and Societies – A Case in Langtang Valley Binaya Pasakhala, Amina Maharjan, Sabarnee Tuladhar, and Arabinda Mishra

4.1 Background The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, home to some of the most marginalized communities of the world, is often characterized as an area with fragile and hazardous terrain and harsh environmental conditions (Jodha, 1992). A large part of the region is frozen water in the form of ice, glaciers, snow, and permafrost, which contributes to ten major river basins in Asia (Bajracharya et al., 2015). The livelihoods (economic and non-economic) of the people in the HKH are dependent on the contributions of the cryosphere. For instance, meltwater supplies are used for agriculture, pastoral activities, drinking water, hydropower generation, and recreation (Mukherji et al., 2019; Xiao et al., 2015). It also supports high-mountain vegetation and wildlife (Paudel & Andersen, 2013; Xu et al., 2009). The local communities also revere the snow-capped mountains as their local deities (Allison, 2015). Thus, the cryosphere services contribute to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 14 and 15 (Wang et al., 2019a). The HKH region is also considered a hotspot of climate change. The increase in temperature in the region exceeds the global average temperature rise (IPCC, 2014). Consequently, glaciers and snow cover in the region are decreasing rapidly (e.g. Bajracharya et  al., 2015; Bolch et  al., 2019). The rate of cryosphere changes is expected to exacerbate further with the continuing rise in global temperature (Kraaijenbrink et al., 2017). Climate change and rapid transformations in the cryosphere have also increased the frequency and intensity of disasters (IPCC, 2014) in

B. Pasakhala (*) · A. Maharjan · S. Tuladhar · A. Mishra International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Lalitpur, Nepal e-mail: [email protected] © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 P. K. Pradhan, W. Leimgruber (eds.), Nature, Society, and Marginality, Perspectives on Geographical Marginality 8, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21325-0_4

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the region, which is already prone to multiple hazards (Vaidya et al., 2019). Further, climate and cryosphere changes are likely to amplify extreme events referred to as “cascading disasters” that trigger causal chains of secondary events leading to serious consequences of significant magnitude (Pescaroli & Alexander, 2015; Riddell et al., 2019). Floods, landslides, earthquakes, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF), and avalanches are some of the common disasters in the HKH region. They cause huge losses of lives and damages to property and infrastructure (Schwanghart et al., 2016; Xu et al., 2009). The outburst of Booni Gol (Pakistan) and Chorabari Lake (India) resulted in the deaths of thousands of people and economic losses worth millions of US dollars (UNDP, 2018; WB, GoUK, and ADB, 2013). In Nepal, more than 270 people died due to avalanches and snowstorms during 1995 and 2015 (MoHA and DPNet-Nepal, 2015). The high-mountainous communities are socially and politically marginalised, having poor accessibility to basic infrastructures and low representation in the national agenda (Gioli et al., 2019). In addition to marginalization, their proximity to the cryosphere and high dependence on natural resources, make them vulnerable to impacts of climate change (Xenarios et al., 2018). Moreover, they are also experiencing various social, economic, political, and cultural transformations that have created new opportunities and challenges (Wang et al., 2019b). Globalization, economic growth, demographic changes, and infrastructure and technological development have different impacts on the marginalization of mountain communities. For instance, improved connectivity and access to basic services have reduced marginality. But infrastructure development has also ruptured the uniqueness of the mountain ecosystem and exposed the communities to new vulnerabilities (Jodha, 1992; Bhatta et al., 2019). The combined effects of climatic and non-climatic drivers of change in the HKH region will have cascading effects on human and natural systems (Thonicke et al., 2020). With growing awareness of climate and rapid cryosphere changes in the region, most efforts have focused on understanding their physical aspects (Rasul et al., 2019). Yet, an empirical understanding of the cascading disasters and their cascading effects on the livelihoods of the mountain people is still rather poor, but this is essential for developing and implementing effective adaptation plans (Rasul & Molden, 2019). In this context, a study was conducted in the Langtang valley of Nepal, which suffered from an avalanche triggered by the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake. The earthquake was a cascading disaster that killed more than 9000 people in Nepal. In the case of Langtang, it has not been possible to estimate the exact number of deaths caused only by the earthquake or the avalanche; however, the latter buried settlements, killing hundreds of people (Soden & Lord, 2018). The study assessed the changes in the cryosphere system from the perspective of the local people and analysed the socio-economic situation and the cascading effects of the persistent changes on local livelihoods.

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4.2 Methodology 4.2.1 Study Area Langtang village is located in the Gosaikunda Rural Municipality of Rasuwa district, about 60 km north of Kathmandu at longitude 85°34’ N and latitude 28°12′ E. The name of the village is associated with the story of a Buddhist lama who was searching for his lost yak – ‘Lang’ in Tibetan meaning ‘yak’ and ‘Tang’ meaning ‘follow’. The village is located close to the border between Nepal and the Tibetan Autonomous Region of China. The elevation ranges from 1300  m asl to above 7200 m asl at its highest point, Mt. Langtang-Lirung. The village comprises five major settlements  – Gumba Danda, Langtang, Mundu, Singdhum, and Kyanzing (Fig. 4.1). The lower areas of Langtang are characterized by steep hills and a river valley, while the upper areas are mainly mountains covered by snow and glaciers. The inhabitants of Langtang are one of the marginalized communities in Nepal, mostly Tibetan-speaking people, who came from Kyirong, Tibet, before the mid-­1600s (Mcveigh, 2004). Therefore, they have a close cultural affinity with the Tibetans. In 2011, there were 152 households with a total population of 415 people (Central Bureau of Statistics, 2014). In 1953, the then royal Government of Nepal, with assistance from the Swiss government, established a cheese factory in Kyanzing to support the livelihoods of the local yak herders. Despite opposition of the local

Fig. 4.1  Map of the study area. (Source: Esri, Maxar, GeoEye, Earthstar Geographics, CNES/ Airbus DS, USDA, USGS, AeroGRID, IGN, and the GIS User Community)

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communities, the Government of Nepal declared the area as Langtang National Park in 1976 (Stevens, 2013). The local communities were neither evicted nor relocated from their area. Although they maintained ownership over their private houses and crop fields, their collectively managed lands were nationalized. The imposition of state rules and regulations, while dismantling customary laws and institutions had exacerbated their economic, social, and political marginalization (Stevens, 2013).

4.2.2 Methods of Data Collection In-depth, face-to-face interviews and a group discussion were conducted with local inhabitants from the five major villages of Langtang valley during May–June 2019. A conscious effort was made to capture the voices of both male and female members of different age groups and occupations. The interviews were held with 20 local inhabitants, comprising 11 men and nine women. These respondents were farmers, hotel entrepreneurs, herders, local shamans, porters, mother’s group members, and local leaders. In addition to these inhabitants, government officials and experts working in the area were also interviewed for the study. The in-depth interviews centred around two main components: livelihood–environment linkages and socio-economic development in the village. They focused on environment (snow, glaciers, glacial lakes, rivers, and natural disasters), livelihoods, community vitality, values, spirituality, and religious beliefs, as well as on infrastructure development and the opening up of different economic opportunities. The group discussion was attended by 21 participants from all five settlements.

4.3 Results 4.3.1 Cryosphere–Livelihood Linkages Agriculture, animal husbandry, and tourism are the major livelihood sources of the local communities in Langtang. The households are also dependent on income from remittances, selling of handicraft goods, and trading in non-timber forest products, including Ophiocordyceps sinensis or locally known as yartsa gunbu. The meltwaters from the Zhangbu and Kimjung glaciers are the major sources of water for irrigation, drinking, and other domestic purposes. The Chuhang Khola – a stream flowing from the Zhangbu glacier –is the water source for a 120-KV micro-hydro power plant that supplies electricity to all the five settlements. Snow is the major source of soil moisture for agricultural crops as well as for pasture vegetation, including medicinal plants. The local communities cultivate only one crop a year due to low temperature and windy conditions. Their major crops are potato, buckwheat, and naked barley. Their agricultural production is

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sufficient for their own consumption for three months or less only. They also raise yaks, yak-cow hybrids, sheep, goats, horses, and mules. Yak cheese is sold to the local cheese factory to generate cash income, while the yak and sheep wool is used to make carpets and cloths. As these villagers are Buddhists, they do not slaughter animals, but the carcass of yaks, its hybrids and sheep is part of their diet. To cope with forage shortages and seasonal temperature changes, the locals graze animals in pastures at different altitudinal ranges during different seasons. In winter (October to April), the animals move to pastures in Rimche (2500 m asl) and Ghodatabela (2900 masl) for grazing, while in summer (April to September), they move to highland pastures in Chyamki (3300 masl) and Kyanzing (3900 masl). During their stay on the summer pasture, the herders make yak cheese. The local communities revere Mt. Langtang-Lirung as their local protector deity. Every morning, they burn juniper leaves to receive its blessings, while festivals such as Tarna, Langshisha, and Duppa Chhijyu are celebrated to worship the deity. As regards tourism, Langtang’s glaciers and snow-capped mountains, its high-­ altitude lakes, diverse wildlife and rich cultural heritage attract thousands of foreign and Nepali tourists every year. In 2019, 21,945 tourists (16,386 from abroad and 5,559 from Nepal) visited the area. The Langtang trekking route is the most accessible and closest to Kathmandu.

4.3.2 Changes in the Cryosphere System The communities were asked about their perception of the changes in the local cryosphere system. The response was unequivocal about the increase in temperature and the shrinking of glaciers, particularly the Kimjung and Yala glaciers in Langtang. Their observations corroborate the Yala glacier monitoring measurements, which show rapid shrinking of the glacier due to an increase in air temperature and changes in the precipitation patterns (Acharya & Kayastha, 2018). During the group discussion, researchers showed the photos of the glacier – taken in 1982, 1996, 2008, and 2017  – to the local communities. Observing the changes in the glacier level, the participants stated that they were aware about the shrinking of the glacier but did not know that it had happened at such a large scale. A local cheese entrepreneur (a 46-year-old man) recalled: In the past, the Kimjung glacier was brighter and closer to my house, but in the recent years, the glacier has become darker in colour and has receded upward. The summer in the village has become hotter than in my childhood days.

Most of the participants in the group discussion were upset but not much worried about the changes in the Yala glacier. However, they were really concerned about the changes in the intensity and pattern of snowfall. Over the last 15  years, the amount of snowfall has declined, and snow has begun to melt earlier, by mid-Jestha (end of May). In the past, they had snowfall only in Poush (mid-December to

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mid-­January) and Magh (mid-January to mid-February) and the snow lasted until the end of Baisakh (mid-May). In the years 2011, 2014, 2015, 2018, and 2019, they had exceptionally heavy snowfall from Falgun (mid-February to mid-March) to Baisakh (mid-April to mid-May). A local herder (a 66-year-old man) said: The existing glacier will be sufficient to supply water for my next two generations, so I am not much worried about the shrinking of glaciers. Some years, we do not have sufficient snowfall, and other years, there is heavy snowfall. The grass is not sufficient for animals due to such fluctuations. Untimely snowfall and snowstorms killed innumerable number of yaks and hybrids in 2014 and 2018. We had to bear huge financial losses. If this continues, I will not be able to support my family through herding, I will have to look for alternatives.

The pace of the impacts of the gradual decline in snowfall has been slow, while unseasonal and heavy snowfall had sudden-onset impacts. The decline in snowfall has reduced water availability for crops, thereby causing crop failure. The unseasonal and heavy snowfall has also caused crop failure by washing away the sowed seeds. The farmers sow the seeds of potato in late Chaitra (mid-April) but snowfall and the melting of snow in Baisakh (mid-April to mid-May) erode them. Moreover, unseasonal and heavy snowfall in the years 2014, 2018, and 2019 caused water and food shortages for the yaks, resulting in mass deaths of the animals. Two different thoughts were expressed on the reasons for the melting of glaciers and the changes in snowfall pattern. One group of villagers blamed it on the impact of anthropogenic activities on the environment. According to this group, the burning of waste near the peaks by expedition teams and the roofing of new houses with zinc sheet have increased the local temperature, leading to the rapid melting of glaciers. Some villagers stated that the greenhouses built for vegetable farming are also driving the increase in local temperature, resulting in glacier melting. According to a member of the Langtang Buffer Zone Committee (a 35-year-old man): In the past, there were only two hotels in Kyanzing, and there were less people. Now, with the increase in population, the environment is getting more polluted. Nowadays, people use zinc sheets for roofing their houses, and build plastic greenhouse tunnels. These are making Langtang warmer and causing rapid shrinkage of glaciers.

Another group of villagers believed they have angered their local deity, which caused avalanches and unseasonal and heavy snowfall in Langtang. According to this group, the deity is angry because the villagers have not followed the rituals and there is growing disharmony in the society. A member of the local mother’s group (a 51-year-old woman) said: The avalanches in the past were not as scary as they are now. During our father’s and forefathers’ time, we used to do pujas – Nara, Torpe, Yulbachhiju – to keep our deities happy and they would save us from disasters; but nowadays, people do not pray to the deity. Now, even the social bonding between the community members is not the same as in the past. Since there is negativity in social relationships, the environment will also suffer. If people get along and are good with one another, then the gods will also be more forgiving.

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4.3.3 Cascading Disaster: The 2015 Gorkha Earthquake Most of the respondents stated that they had experienced avalanches in the past as well and that disasters were nothing new for them. The interviewees linked the unseasonal and heavy snowfall with avalanches. They said that avalanches came in two forms- ‘khari’ which involves the sliding of snowpack with rocks and ‘khaiyu’ which involves the suspension of snow in the air. According to them, khaiyu is less devastating than khari. The villagers recalled a khaiyu that struck in 1993, which caused a helicopter crash (but without any casualty). Though the villagers do not remember the year, khaiyu have also damaged a few hotels, and killed a few animals. Some important khari events that took place in the Langtang valley in the last two decades were in the years 1997 and 2011 (in Singdhum), 2015 (in Langtang) and 2019 (in Mundu). The khari of 1997 killed a few yaks, the one of 2011 killed two people, while there were no casualties in 2019. Talking about the khari of 2015, the villagers said that they had never experienced anything like that before – the cascading effect and the scale of destruction. They recalled that there was heavy snowfall in the Falgun (mid-February to mid-­ March) and Chaitra (mid-March to mid-April) months of 2015, and the mountain peaks were full of soft snow. Thus, when the earthquake hit Nepal in April 2015, it triggered the soft snow to slide from the mountain peaks; it then gained momentum and carried along with it rock and other debris, creating a massive khari. A local leader (a 42-year-old man) recounted: In recent years, there has been snowfall between Falgun and Baisakh, which is unusual. Snow during these months does not compact well and melts faster, leading to frequent avalanches in the area.

The earthquake itself only destroyed a few houses but the secondary disaster in the form of the khari buried most part of Gumba Danda and Langtang settlements, and the wind blast triggered by the khari also killed people, destroyed forests and houses within a radius of about 5 km. The debris from the avalanche blocked the Langtang River for a couple of days, arousing fear among the local survivors as well as the downstream communities. A survivor of the disaster (a 49-year-old woman) recalled: I heard a huge noise, like an explosion, then felt the earth shake. So, all of us ran outside from our houses for safety. But then I saw a huge, black mass falling down the mountain slopes and so screamed to everyone to run back inside their houses. Those of us inside our houses survived with injuries, but I lost my elder daughter and three sisters. My daughter was working in the crop field and had no chance to take shelter from the khari. My eldest son was buried under the debris; nobody thought he would survive; but my husband did not give up and dug him out, and later he was flown to Kathmandu for medical treatment. He has not returned to the village since then. I had never heard of such a scale of disaster in Langtang before.

Altogether, the khari and the wind blast killed over 175 villagers (about 22 per cent of the local population), 27 guides and porters, and 40 tourists from 14 countries. Moreover, two-third of the livestock population in the village is estimated to have

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been killed by this disaster. During the field visit, the study team noticed that the forest trees in the radius of an estimated 5 km from Langtang village were severely damaged and that the trees did not have any leaves. The villagers reported that the damage to the forest let loose strong gusts of wind in the Langtang valley; the forest had earlier played a vital role as a windscreen.

4.3.4 Cascading Effects of a Cascading Disaster The 2015 Gorkha Earthquake and khari changed the ways of life of the villagers – these two events have not only had a massive impact on the traditional means of livelihood (Fig.  4.2) but also an adverse effect on culture and local knowledge. Moreover, all the respondents had lost at least one immediate family member or a relative; this has left the survivors with long-term psychological scars. Moreover, five households have no surviving members. Before the disaster, the communities were gradually shifting from an agro-­ pastoral based livelihood to one related to tourism; but this shift was accelerated by the disaster. During the fieldwork in April 2019, the study team found that almost all households had shifted from earning their livelihood through traditional means to one that depended on tourism. While there are multiple factors behind this shift, the disaster of 2015 is one of the significant factors (Tuladhar et al., 2021). In the area of trade, one major development that took place after the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake was the closure of the Zhangmu (China) – Kodari (Nepal) cross-border trade route between China and Nepal. Now it is the Gyirong (China) – Rasuwa Fort (Nepal) route that has become the major trading route between the countries after the earthquake. And this shift has generated good economic opportunities for the residents of the Langtang valley. A few households in Langtang are now operating

Earthquake

Khari

Wind blast

Loss of life

Loss of labour and indigenous knowledge/skills

Loss of livestock and land

Shift in traditional livelihoods

Damages to property and infrastructure

Lack of resources

Homogeneity in livelihood

Increased marginality

Fig. 4.2  Cascading effects of the 2015 earthquake in Langtang. (Source: Authors’ elaboration)

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shops and hotels in Gyirong. Moreover, in 2018, the Chinese and Nepalese governments agreed to construct a railway line between Shigatse (China) and Kathmandu via Gyirong and Syafrubesi by 2024. During fieldwork, the Langtang village was accessible only by trekking trails and it took at least a day for the villagers to reach Syafrubesi, the nearest market from the study area and located about 15 km away from Rasuwa Fort. At this time, a road was being constructed to connect Langtang with Syafrubesi, and the villagers expected the newly elected local government to expedite this construction as well as the work on other infrastructure. All these political and infrastructural developments at a local and a macro scale have also provided the villagers with alternative livelihood options such as trading. Four years after the earthquake, and at the time of this study, most of the settlements in Gumba Danda and Langtang were still buried under the debris of the khari. Since the settlements were located inside the Langtang National Park, the locals could not purchase new areas for their private use. The survivors, whose land and houses were buried under the debris, had to build new houses on their cultivable land, thus replacing crop land with buildings. As a result, those households either had to completely abandon agriculture or cultivate on remaining land after re-­ building their houses. The loss of life, almost 22 per cent of the village population, had significantly reduced the labour force, including that of those who practiced traditional carpentry, animal husbandry and agriculture. A guest house owner (a 28-year-old man) said: I had built my house using traditional wood carving for the main door. There were three old men who had that skill. But all three were killed in the khari; now there is nobody in the village with the skills of wood carving. So, even if somebody wants to build a house with traditional architecture design, it is going to be difficult to find artisans locally.

Also, after the disaster, many individuals, particularly the younger ones, did not want to return or remain in Langtang due to the psychological trauma of losing loved ones and of painful memories. The disaster also completely damaged the local primary school; thus, the local children were sent to schools in Dhunche or Kathmandu. Such factors also led to a decline in labour for farming and animal rearing. Social festivities too were affected. For the last few years, the community had not gathered and celebrated annual festivals like Langshisha and Duppa Chhijyu. The respondents reported that the practice of coming together and organizing events and prayers was on the wane. According to a local porter (a 42-year-old man): I have sent my son and daughter to Kathmandu for education. Lots of young people have migrated to Kathmandu to study and do not want to come back. They want to stay there or go overseas; only the old people are left here. We do not have enough people to even celebrate our festivals.

Tourism, on the other hand, evolved as the primary livelihood source for the local population. Tourism had played a vital role during recovery and rebuilding after the disaster. The foreign tourists, who had visited Langtang earlier, provided communities with relief materials and financial aid. Foreign tourists also supported many local youths and children to out-migrate from Langtang to Kathmandu and abroad

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for education and employment opportunities. Moreover, interactions with foreign tourists have changed the aspirations of local youths – they now want to out-migrate from the village to engage in alternative economic activities. The respondents perceived that the households engaged in tourism prior to the earthquake received more financial and supports for rebuilding than agro-pastoral based households. According to a guest house owner (a 28-year-old man): Before the earthquake, agriculture and livestock were major income sources. My brother who looked after our yaks died in the earthquake. I had to build a house on our agricultural land, so I did not have enough land for agriculture as well. Those having close relations with foreign tourists directly received financial aid and were able to build their houses within a short time, while it took me more than a year. So, I invested in tourism business. I borrowed money and went to Kathmandu to a relative for six months training on hospitality management.

The growth of tourism has also ensued competition among local communities for inviting tourists to stay in their guest houses. The decline in  local traditions and culture has had an adverse effect on social capital and community vitality. Since the villagers have mostly abandoned agriculture, they import food grains, vegetables, and other food products from outside for their own consumption as well as for the tourists. This shift in livelihood sources and the decline in social capital and community vitality have had a negative influence on the overall social harmony in Langtang. According to a farmer (a 45-year-old woman): It is very sad to see how my village is changing. Nobody wants to do farming any more. All our food comes from Syafrubesi. Everyone is busy inviting tourists to stay in their guest houses. In the past, we offered tea for free to the guests, but now people ask money even for a cup of water.

The high-mountain communities are considered as egalitarian societies (Gurung, 1999). But with changes in the cryosphere, the economy and society, this egalitarian structure is also eroding, leading to adverse effects on the social and natural resource management system. Take, for instance, the case of solid waste management in the area. At present, there is no system of solid waste collection and management; as a consyequence, plastic bottles, wrappers, beer and whiskey bottles, and other wastes are piled up and disposed of in the Langtang River. Also, the mules used for transporting goods leave behind trails of dung. Most of the interviewees were worried about the growing environmental problems, including the shrinking of glaciers and snow cover and their negative implications for tourism. However, there has been little discussion on how to deal with the negative effects of tourism and the increased import of goods from the downstream areas. According to a ward member (a 43-year-old woman): The tourists come here to see the mountains and nature. If there is no snow, there will be a lot of problems. Environmental degradation will lessen the attractiveness of the area. The tourists will also not come here. If that happens, we will have to return to farming.

Similarly, the respondents unequivocally stated that the incidence of hazard has increased in the last decade. That, however, has not led to any disaster preparedness plans. As witnessed during the field visit, an avalanche had occurred between

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Langtang and Mundu villages, but there was no system in place of warning the guides/porters or guests; neither was any initiative taken to create a path over the avalanche debris. Moreover, the interviewees were hesitant to report incidences of hazards to the media or government. They feared that the national and international coverage of any disaster in the area would reduce the number of tourists. The interviewees were also of the opinion that since external agencies would not be able to prevent those disasters from happening, it would be futile to inform them after the disaster had happened. According to a local porter (a 25-year-old man): We do not report khaiyu and khari to the media or government offices. The media reporters will misreport a simple landslide as a devastating one, and that will scare away the tourists from visiting Langtang. Foreign tourists may rather enjoy walking over a khaiyu; that would be adventure tourism for them.

4.4 Discussion Cascading disasters and cascading effects due to climatic and non-climatic changes. The study shows that climate change exacerbates the risks of cascading disasters in the high mountains that are seismically active. The communities were bearing both the sudden onset (e.g., untimely and heavy snowfall, avalanches) and slow-paced impacts (increase in temperature, decline in snowfall, and shrinking of glaciers) of climate change; this was also evident in other areas of the region (Manandhar et al., 2011). Similarly, non-climatic drivers of change such as globalization and infrastructure development have had social, economic, and cultural impacts on local livelihoods. The climatic and non-climatic drivers of changes and their interactions in the high mountains at a rapid rate have made disasters more complex and severe than in the past (Mukherji et al., 2019; Pescaroli & Alexander, 2015). All these changes threaten the progresses made on sustainable development agendas and can further perpetuate marginalization of the community. The shift from diversified livelihoods to overdependence on the tourism sector. In the high mountain regions, globalization and improved connectivity have led to a growth in tourism and migration (Wang et al., 2019b), which was also observed in Langtang. The shift from a diversified livelihood system to tourism was gradual until 2015 but dramatically increased after the 2015 earthquake. Loss of land, livestock and property forced households to shift their livelihoods to tourism. Despite without sufficient funds, knowledge and skills, most households decided to invest in tourism-based livelihoods. A fallout of this has been a large-scale abandonment of agriculture and animal husbandry activities in the mountains (Aryal et al., 2018). This has created a heavy dependence on food and non-food imports from the downstream areas to meet the demands of the local population as well as those of the tourists (Banskota & Sharma, 1997). Moreover, any disruption in tourism activities or connectivity can have an adverse impact on the basic food and nutrition situation of the local population. For

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instance, the Government of Nepal had promoted 2020 as a year to visit the country. Langtang is famous with Chinese and South Korean tourists, among others. But the corona virus epidemic has had a severe negative impact on the number of visitors coming to Nepal (Poudel, 2020). This will have an adverse effect on the tourism-­ dependent Langtang community and worsen their marginalization. Mobility of people and weakening social capital. With the expansion of tourism and the external social network, there has been an unintended impact on the mobility of the people, particularly on the young. Almost the entire youth of Langtang village now live in Kathmandu for educational purposes, including primary school. This entails the risk of the younger generation losing a sense of attachment towards their native place and also a loss of identity. Besides, due to the job opportunities provided by the tourism sector, there has been an in-migration of young men from other parts of Nepal. In the high mountains, tourism and migration have contributed to an increase in the average cash income of the households (Nepal & Nepal, 2004; Padoa-Schioppa & Baietto, 2008). In Langtang, this increase in household income through tourism has reduced economic marginalization, but also increased social inequality. Although there have been no visible conflicts, during the field visit, a sense of discontent could be observed. Growing social inequality and decline in social capital and community vitality can contribute to conflicts in the community. The disintegration of social assets has also created challenges for the environment in terms of aspects such as waste management and community development work (Nepal, 2000). Growing disconnection with snow, mountains, and glaciers. As the villagers have accorded high priority to tourism, their connection with snow, mountains, and glaciers has been thinning over time. This can lead to an erosion in traditional knowledge, which has usually been transferred through oral histories rather than written documents (Cruikshank, 2001). In the future, even if the communities want to revive some of their other sectors of livelihood, this can pose a grave challenge. The loss of local knowledge will not only be harmful for the Langtang community, but also for the wider group of stakeholders, as the traditional knowledge of the mountain communities can be of significant help in carrying out scientific studies on cryosphere changes (Cruikshank, 2001; McAdoo et al., 2006).

4.5 Conclusion The communities in Langtang live close to snow and glaciers, and the cryosphere plays a vital role in the sustenance of their livelihoods. In recent years, the communities have witnessed changes in snowfall pattern and there has been a receding of glaciers. The 2015 Gorkha Earthquake  – a cascading disaster, triggering an avalanche (a secondary event) – resulted in the deaths of local villagers, guides, porters, and foreign tourists. Moreover, the khari caused further damages: deaths of livestock, decline in the labour force, loss of cultivable land, and depletion of traditional knowledge. This meant shifts in livelihood practices and the weakening of social

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capital. The case study on Langtang village shows that climate change has exacerbated natural hazards, and the social and economic changes in high-mountain society are making the communities more vulnerable to cascading disasters and their cascading effects, likely to further marginalize the community. The direct impacts of climate change are expected to become more severe in the future and the temperature is projected to keep rising (Bolch et al., 2019). There is an urgent need to combat climate change and address its challenges, or else, the efforts to achieve the sustainable development goals will be futile. Moreover, the mountainous communities will disproportionately bear the costs of inaction. Therefore, both global response and bottom-up strategies are necessary to build the resilience of the mountain communities. A better understanding of the nature of hazards (gradual and sudden ones) as well as of the local context (socio-economic and biophysical conditions) is necessary for disaster management. A physical assessment of various hazards by engaging different actors and stakeholders will help raise the awareness levels of the local communities as well as develop locally appropriate disaster management strategies. Moreover, the risks due to climatic and non-climatic changes and their possible cascading effects need to be considered while preparing development plans that integrate all aspects of the issue. The communities in Langtang have shifted from traditional farming to non-farm livelihood practices, which have been documented elsewhere in the HKH region as well (Wang et al., 2019b). However, their greater reliance on a single sector (tourism) and the large-scale abandonment of agriculture and livestock production threaten their food and nutrition security. Therefore, there is a need to diversify local livelihoods and closely integrate different livelihood sources; for instance, by promoting traditional food and livestock products in the tourism sector. These are the some of the measures to be undertaken to help build resilient mountain livelihoods and address issues that contribute to the marginalization of the mountainous community. Acknowledgements  We extend our sincere thanks to Mr. Amrit Thapa and Mr. Prashant Thapaliya for preparing Fig.  4.1. This study was supported by the Cryosphere Initiative at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) and was funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Norway, and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) and by ICIMOD core funds contributed by the governments of Afghanistan, Australia, Austria, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Norway, Pakistan, Sweden, and Switzerland. The views and interpretations in this publication are solely those of the authors and are not attributable to ICIMOD.

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Part III

Geomorphological and Water Issues: Nepal and Brazil

Human activities inevitably encroach onto the natural ecosystem and enter into conflict with the laws of physics. Water is a major issue and is the red thread running through all six chapters. The chapter by Chidi examines the issue of soil erosion in the most densely populated region of Nepal, a problem related to urban growth and land use and land cover change. The contribution by Karkee and co-authors addresses a similar topic, but in a rural area. Landslides and soil liquefaction are the most important threats. Shrestha and Shrestha discuss the ecosystem services offered by the rivers, but focus not only on the water resource and the fish but also on drift wood, stones, gravel and sands, important resources for local populations. Water management in expanding urban settlements can be a major challenge. Maharjan’s chapter presents an interesting concept for urban water management, to be applied in the university town of Kirtipur near Kathmandu. In the same region, Shrestha and Paudel look at daily water issues and social justice. Together with environmental justice, this is also the subject of Lima’s paper on re-naturalizing rivers. This change of continent reveals that also in Brazil people are confronted with similar problems.

Chapter 5

Urbanization and Soil Erosion in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal Chhabi Lal Chidi

5.1 Introduction Lands are marginalized by natural and/or artificial forces, which have great potential for transformation. Marginal lands have been extensively investigated and discussed by scientists such as underused, difficult to cultivate, low economic value, lands with uncertain status, degraded lands and lands with varied developmental potentials (Cervelli et al., 2020). Urban areas may be part of the hydrological system of a watershed, where land degradation and inundations may be the negative consequences of the overexploitation of natural resources and an improper management system of the watershed (Sun et al., 2019). Soil is the most precious resource for humans and other living beings that create a dynamic and complex ecosystem. Half of the topsoil on the planet has been lost in the last 150 years (Gupta, 2019). The effect of soil erosion is not limited to the loss of its fertility, but includes an increase in pollution, sedimentation, clogging of waterways and declining aquatic life. Soil erosion leads to land degradation, resulting in a weak water holding capacity of land, flooding, and finally to desertification (Lal, 2014). Although the problem of soil erosion is mostly related to agriculture practices, it is also an important phenomenon in the urban environment (Shikangalah et al., 2016). Population growth demands new land for built up areas resulting in the removal of vegetation and aggravating soil erosion by runoff water, thus leading to more land degradation on marginal lands, particularly slopes. Rapid urbanization is a common phenomenon leading to environmental degradation in developing countries. This is an essential concern. However, until now little attention has been paid to the issue of soil erosion due to the urbanization process (Shikangalah et al., 2016). Urbanization changes the land surface by covering formerly open areas with asphalt or concrete, surfaces C. L. Chidi (*) Central Department of Geography, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 P. K. Pradhan, W. Leimgruber (eds.), Nature, Society, and Marginality, Perspectives on Geographical Marginality 8, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21325-0_5

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whose water holding capacity is zero with soil erosion (Aswathy & Sindhu, 2013). High demand of land for construction of buildings, removal of vegetation, increasing demand of locally available construction materials are some of the important factors that accelerate soil erosion in vacant or bare surface areas. Studies so far available on soil erosion due to urbanization are mostly associated with dry and tropical climatic regions. For instance, Aswathy and Sindhu (2013) showed a significant increase in soil erosion due to urbanization in Kerala, India, whilst in Inner Mongolia, Chinese urbanization has shown both negative and positive impacts on soil erosion. Soil erosion intensity is generally linked to the pattern of population concentration over urban space in the developing countries (Silveira, 2002). Soil erosion in urban regions appears to occur for two reasons: change in land use/land cover, and an increasing demand for construction materials (sand, gravel and stones) for the construction of buildings and other related infrastructure. Over the years, quarrying activities of locally available construction materials have increased enormously in many developing countries of Asia, Africa and South America, where regular monitoring and regulation systems of those activities are highly lacking, leading to further aggravating soil erosion around the cities (UNEP, 2019). These efforts seem to be inadequate to cope with sustainable urban environment; therefore, people living in urban areas are likely to suffer the most severe environmental consequences of increasing erosion risks. Rapid urbanization has taken place in the developing countries mostly due to rural in-migrants and without well planned urban structure (Ishtiaque et al., 2017). For instance, the capital city Kathmandu in the Kathmandu Valley of Nepal has developed dramatically over the past four decades. The urban population in this city has grown by 4% annually, which makes it one of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in South Asia. Kathmandu is the first city region in Nepal to face the unprecedented challenges of rapid urbanization and modernization at a metropolitan scale (Haack & Rafter, 2006; Pathak & Lamichhane, 2014). Due to this rapid urban growth, land use/land cover has changed dramatically. What used to be agricultural areas have been converted into built-up zones and other urban related infrastructures (Ishtiaque et al., 2017). In addition, the Bagmati River and its tributaries flowing through the valley often cause flash floods and sedimentation. Soil erosion increases due to changes in land use/land cover and the clearing of land for urban buildings on the surrounding slopes, but this is mainly because of a lack of monitoring of haphazard extraction activities of building materials (Sayami & Tamrakar, 2007; Sada & Shrestha, 2013). Research on soils erosion as a consequence of urbanization is lacking, particularly in the Kathmandu valley, the largest urban region in Nepal with five cities. This study is an attempt to assess the relationship between land use/ land cover change and soil erosion process in the context of urban development in the Kathmandu Valley. Besides, it looks at the cause and effect relationship between urbanization and soil erosion, and identifies the situation of the marginal parts of the city and the city in the Kathmandu Valley.

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5.2 The Study Area The Kathmandu Valley lies in the middle hill region of Nepal and is located between 85°11′15″ − 85°31′30″ east and 27°32′21″ − 27°49′01″ north (Fig. 5.1). It covers an area of 670 km2. The elevations of the valley range from 1095 m to 2785 m a.s.l. at the eastern Phulchoki peak. More than half of the valley’s total area is composed of hill slopes, the other part being the valley floor (47.8%). Average temperatures range from 3 °C in winter to 30 °C in summer. The average rainfall in the valley is 1500 mm, with 80% falling during the rainy summer season (July–September). The Bagmati with its tributaries flows down from the surrounding hills, draining the entire basin and flows out of the valley to the south. The urban population of Kathmandu Valley was nearly 1.5 million in 2011, nearly one-fifth of the total urban population of Nepal. Over the last six decades from 1952 to 2011, the urban population grew from 181,082 in 1954 to 1,465,000 in 2011, to which migrants contributed approximately 70%. Between 1981 and 1991 the valley’s urban population increased by over 82%, 59% by migration, the largest ever since the 1950s (Pradhan et al., 2020; Pradhan, 2003). In 2011, the net inflow of migrants accounted for 36% of the valley’s urban population, which is said to be the largest net inflow of migrants among all urban areas in Nepal (CBS, 2012). The urban built-up area has increased by 137% during the years 1990–2019, expanding across the valley floor, as well as over the surrounding hill slopes.

Fig. 5.1  The study area – the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

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5.3 Methods and Materials In dealing with the soil erosion rate in relation to land use/land cover change due to urbanization in the Kathmandu Valley, the following methods and techniques were used.

5.3.1 Land Use/Land Cover The freely available land use/land cover data of 1990, 2000 and 2010 were taken from the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (http://apps. geoportal.icimod.org). These data at 30 m spatial resolution were derived from the Landsat images by using the Object Based Image Analysis (OBIA) technique (Uddin et al., 2015). The same technique was used to derive land use/land cover data for 2019 from Landsat 8 image. These time series land use/land cover data were used for an analysis of change between the valley floor and the hill slope area. For acquiring the bare soil area, the high-resolution Google Earth images were used and bare soil areas were merged with the land use/land cover map. Dominant land use/land cover categories comprised agriculture, forests, and built-up areas; their change was compared between valley floor and hill slope. Particular attention was paid to the trend of change of bare soil surfaces because they are highly liable to soil erosion.

5.3.2 Topography The Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to derive the terrain level by using the SRTM DEM at 30 m spatial resolution. The data were acquired from the website https://dwtkns.com/srtm30m/. Two regions, the valley floor and the hill slope were identified by using the slope gradient and altitude. Based on the SRTM DEM, the semi-automatic method was used to calculate the slope gradient and altitudinal zoning, for which self-judgment was used on the basis of micro topographic features.

5.3.3 Soil Erosion Rate The Revised Universal Soil Erosion Equation (RUSLE) model was used to estimate the soil erosion rates in tons/hectare/year (t/h/y) on various land use/land cover area, which has been widely used by various authors for long term soil erosion estimation (Ganasri & Gowda, 2015; Renard et  al., 1991; Uddin et  al., 2016). The RUSLE model is expressed as:

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S = R × K × LS × C × P

Where,

S = annual soil erosion rate (t/h/y) R = rainfall erosivity K = soil erodibility factor LS = topographic factor C = land use/land cover management factor P = protection factor Rainfall Erosivity (R factor): The geospatial based RUSLE model requires a high resolution climatic data base for soil erosion estimation (Benavidez et al., 2018). As there was no such database in Nepal, the data for rainfall erosivity was taken from the European Soil Data Centre (https://esdac.jrc.ec.europa.eu/), which provides more detail data for Europe and some selected global database. R-factor raster data was derived from the global database. These data were produced for the years 2013–2017 in collaboration with the European Commission, University of Basel, and Meteorological and the Environmental Institutions (Panagos et  al., 2017). Spatial resolution of R factor is 1 km, which was developed based on rainfall of temporal coverage of 30–40 years. The output unit of R factor is MJ mm/ha/h. Soil erodibility (K factor): Soil erodibility is the rate of soil loss, which is measured on a unit plot. K factor was derived from the soil samples collected from the field. Soil structures were identified during the soil samples collection and other properties of soil were derived by physical and chemical analysis. K factor was calculated using the following equation (Wischmeier & Smith, 1978; Renard et al., 1991):

K = 0.1317 × {2.1× 10−4 × M1.14 × (12 − a ) + 3.25 × ( b − 2 ) + 2.5 × ( c − 3)} / 100 



Where, K = soil erodibility (t ha h/ha/MJ/mm) M = soil textural factor a = organic matter content in percent in the soil b = soil structure class code c = soil permeability class code MJ = Mega Joule Topographic factor (LS): The topographic factors including slope gradient (S) and slope length (L) were derived from the SRTM DEM of 30  m spatial resolution. These topographic factors were calculated using the following formula (Morgan & Davidson, 1991):



LS = √

l ( 0.065 + 0.045s + 0.0065s 2 ) 22

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Where, l is the slope length in meter and s is the slope percent. Slope percent was calculated in ArcGIS format and slope length (l) in meter was derived using the equation:  A  l = s   22.13  0.4

Where, As is unit contributing area (m2)

Cover management (C factor) and protection (P factor): The weight factors such as cover management factor (C factor) and protection factor (P factor) were derived with reference to the studies carried out in different parts of the world (Gwapedza et al., 2018; Jang et al., 2015; Sadeghi et al., 2013; Tiruneh & Ayalew, 2015). The weighted values of C and P factors are given in Table 5.1. The RUSLE model was used to derive estimated rate of soil erosion for each of the four years, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2019. First, the rates of soil erosion for the valley’s floor and hill slope, as well as for the spatial and temporal comparisons were calculated, afterwards the trend and pattern of soil erosion were identified with regard to the urban growth trend in the Kathmandu Valley. The average value of the soil erosion rate was calculated based on a 200⤬200 m grid as unit of observation for the spatial analysis and presentation.

5.3.4 Field Study The ground reality verification was carried out in the northeastern part of the valley where observation, mapping, and measurements of the sediments available in the streams were performed. Discussions with a total of 30 local key informants (farmers, teachers, contractors, labors, social workers, politicians and administrative personnel) were conducted to acquire information on the ground situation. Total

Table 5.1  The weight values of P and C factors for different land use/land cover classes Land use class Agriculture Built up Forest Grass land Bare soil Shrubs Water body

C factor 0.37 0.10 0.009 0.12 0.45 0.013 0.01

P factor 0.62 1 1 1 1 1 1

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sediment deposits in the streams and on their banks were estimated based on the measurements of the sediments at pilot sites, as well as on the information obtained from the discussion with the local people. The volume of sediments deposited for a year was estimated based on the measurement of the river channel widths and depths, and the sediments deposited during the rainy season of that year.

5.4 Results 5.4.1 Land Use/Land Cover Change Two major changes in the land use/land cover categories in the Kathmandu Valley include built-up and agricultural land. Figure 5.2 depicts the increase of urban builtup and the decrease of cultivated land from 1990 to 2019, with the former ­

Fig. 5.2  Land use/land cover change in the Kathmandu Valley from 1990 to 2019. (Source: Landsat 8 image 2019 ICIMOD)

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encroaching massively upon the latter. The forest cover is mostly confined to the surrounding hill slopes, which have also been affected by the urban sprawl, albeit to a lesser degree. During the last three decades, the spatial growth of the urban area has taken place mainly in the eastern part of the valley, where vast extensive areas of agriculture land existed in the past. The expansion of urban settlements has occurred in other directions, as well. Road construction might be one of the factors. Major highways connect the valley with the outside world in all directions. The growth of the built-up area was also due to a rapid population increase through in-­ migration (as stated above) during the past 30 years. The transfer between land use categories during this period has been substantial. Built-up areas increased from 101.17  km2 in 1990 to 239.86  km2 in 2019 by 138.69  km2 or 137.01%. Agricultural land, on the other hand, shrank from 283.41 km2 in 1990 to 180.9 km2 in 2019, a decrease of 102.51 km2 or 36.2%. Bare soils surfaces, for their part, more than trebled in the same time, from 1.34 km2 in 1990 to 4.2  km2. Table  5.2 shows the highest increase rate of bare soil surface between 2000 and 2010. This was due to quarrying activities (sand and gravel) and the preparation of vegetated land for real estate purposes. The demand for sand and gravel was a consequence of construction works related to urbanization. Although the total area of bare soil surface is comparably low, its rate of change rate is high, which is crucial for determining the soil erosion rate. This has been validated by the study of Sada and Shrestha (2013) that also showed an increase in bare soil surface areas in the peri-urban region of the valley. The valley’s hill slope occupies an area of 349.74 km2 (52.2%), more than the valley floor (320.26  km2). In the valley floor, agricultural land has decreased by almost 55% during the last three decades. The decline was higher after 2000 compared to the previous years. Table 5.3 shows growing rates of agricultural land in the hill slope area from 1990 to 2010 and then a sharp decline in 2019, while during the same period (2010–2019) the built-up area increased considerably on the hill slopes. The built-up area has constantly grown in the valley floor by over 121% from 1990 to 2019, but considerably less on the hill slopes, where, however, this surface was

Table 5.2  Change in land use/land cover categories from 1990 to 2019 Land use/land cover Agriculture Built up Forest Grass Bare soil Shrub Water Total

1990 Area km2 283.41 101.17 276.71 6.69 1.34 0.01 0.67 670

% 42.3 15.1 41.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 100

2000 Area km2 268.00 131.32 255.27 12.06 2.01 0.67 0.67 670

Source: ICIMOD and Landsat8 image

% 40.1 19.6 38.1 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 100

2010 Area km2 237.85 170.85 247.80 8.04 4.69 0.01 0.67 670

2019 % 35.5 25.5 37.0 1.2 0.7 0.0 0.1 100

Area km2 180.90 239.86 241.20 0.67 5.36 1.34 0.67 670

Total change Area % km2 27.0 −102.51 35.8 138.69 36.0 −35.51 0.1 −6.02 0.8 4.02 0.2 1.33 0.1 0.00 100 --

% −36.17 137.09 −12.83 −89.99 300.00 0.00 0.00 --

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Table 5.3  Change in land use/land cover categories in percent between valley floor and hill slope Land use/ land cover Agriculture Built up Forest Bare soil

1990 VF 58.4 31.5 8.3 0.3

HS 27.5 0.2 71.6 0.1

2000 VF 51.5 40.5 5.7 0.5

HS 29.6 0.4 67.8 0.1

2010 VF 41.5 52 4.7 0.9

HS 30.0 1.1 66.6 0.8

2019 VF 26.5 69.7 3.0 0.6

HS 27.5 4.8 66.2 0.9

Total change VF HS −54.62 0 121.27 2300 −63.86 −7.54 100 800

Note: VF = valley floor; HS = hill slope

Fig. 5.3  Annual soil erosion rates (tons/ha), Kathmandu Valley

originally small. The forest area has constantly dwindled in both regions, but with hugely different rates: nearly 64% in the valley floor and just over 7% on the hill slopes. Table 5.3 also illustrates a regularly expanding rate of bare soil surface area on the hill slopes, relatively larger than that in the valley floor where it decreased after 2010 due to the growth of the built-up area. The dramatic growth of the bare soil surface on the hill slopes resulted from increasing preparations of land plotting for housing and the extraction of earth materials, as well as roads constructions. It is expected that built-up areas in the hill slope area will expand considerably, as land for further settlement development in the valley floor is scarce or very expensive.

5.4.2 Soil Erosion Soil loss has been increasing substantially for the past 30 years (Fig. 5.3). The four maps illustrate how this loss evolved, with a particularly high intensity in the lower parts of the hill slope zone, compared to the valley floor. The soil erosion rate in the middle and lower parts of the hill slopes is relatively low because of the dense forests. The decline of soil erosion since 1990 in the valley floor is the result of the urban sprawl which replaced cultivated land and bare surfaces. Urbanization subsequently crept up the hillsides, and soil erosion diminished. The highest intensity soil erosion occurs in the south-western part of the valley with the steep slope with bare surface along the Bagmati River, a consequence of land degradation. The average rate of soil loss increased until 2010 and declined afterwards. The total soil loss in the valley was one million ton/hectare/year during the past three decades. The decrease in the annual loss in the last decade was the consequence of

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built-up areas encroaching on agricultural land, the second highest erodible area (built-up land being the lowest erodible surface). Although total soil loss has decreased, soil loss rates in the limited areas were double in the last decade compared to the past decades (Table 5.4), because of the highest rate of soil erosion on bare soil surfaces and the increasing area of bare surfaces on the steep hill slope. Soil erosion is unevenly distributed across the study area (Fig. 5.4). Losses of 60 t/h/y are rare and make up less than 1% of all cases examined (0.9% in 2010). The areas experiencing a loss of more than 40 t/h/y, on the other hand, accounted for 1.81% of the valley area in 1990 and 2010, and 2.71% in 2019. An interesting dynamic becomes visible when taking 20  t/h/y as a threshold value: the loss increased from 11.76% in 1990 to 15.84% in 2010, but decreased to 13.12% in 2019. The highest soil erosion rate was observed during the field research mostly in the bare surface areas of the hill slope, where land was cleared for the construction of buildings and additional roads, and the quarrying of sand, gravel and stones. As shown in Fig. 5.5, about 80% of the valley floor area has less than average soil loss whereas it ranged from 40% to 44% in the hill slope area. The average value divides the data into two categories: in three-fifths of the valley the loss is below Table 5.4  Average rate of soil erosion and total amount of soil loss

Year 1990 2000 2010 2019

Average soil erosion rate (ton/ha/year) Maximum rate Average rate Average rate of change (%) 822 4.75 – 1129 15.69 6.37 1129 16.30 3.89 2216 15.22 −6.63

Amount soil loss (ton/ha/ year) Total Change (%) 988,361 – 1,051,330 6.37 1,092,265 3.89 1,020,075 −6.60

Source: Calculated using RUSLE model

Fig. 5.4  Ascending order of average soil erosion rate extracted by 200 m ⤬ 200 m square grid

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Fig. 5.5  Soil loss in area (%) by year between hill slope and valley floor Table 5.5  Average soil erosion rates (tons/ha/year) by land use category Land use Bare Agriculture Grass Shrub Forest Built up Water

1990 64.6 27.4 17.0 9.2 5.2 4.7 4.9

2000 53.3 29.8 27.9 10.8 5.5 5.0 6.5

2010 90.1 33.2 29.0 23.0 5.5 5.4 3.6

2019 97.1 37.5 11.8 13.6 5.6 6.3 5.7

Source: Calculated using RUSLE model

‘average’, whilst in the other two-fifths it lies above. However, areas with less than ‘average’ soil loss are increasing in both regions. Figure 5.5 also shows a decreasing rate of soil loss area above ‘average’ in the valley floor compared to the hill slope area. However there is a concentration of soil erosion above average in limited parts of the valley floor. The various land use/land cover categories show different rates of soil erosion (Table 5.5). The bare soil surface appears to be most prone to soil erosion, as the increase from 65 to 97 t/ha/y during the 30 years illustrate. Agricultural land comes next, followed by the other categories. The agricultural surfaces had contributed less than half of the average soil erosion rate, compared to the bare soil surface in 1990, and nearly half in 2000, and it was nearly one-third compared to the bare surface in 2010 and 2019; this is due to the expansion of bare soil surfaces across the steep hill slopes and the shrinking of bare soil surfaces in the valley floor. Obviously the water bodies have the lowest average rate of soil erosion, behind built-up areas. This below average soil erosion rate in the valley floor was due to the expansion of settlements. In the course of time, bare surfaces grew substantially on the hill slopes (Table 5.6), which resulted in a more than double the rate of soil loss over the valley floor, where the problem of soil erosion had diminished thanks to the growth of built-up areas, shrinking agricultural land, and diminishing bare surfaces.

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Table 5.6  Comparison of average soil loss rates (ton/ha/year) between hill slope and valley floor Year 1990 2000 2010 2019

Hill slope 19.6 21.6 23.2 22.3

Valley floor 9.5 9.3 8.7 7.5

Average 14.8 15.7 16.3 15.2

According to the local informants, particularly the activities, such as plotting of land in the hill slope area and sand mining in both hill slope and valley zones have indeed occurred over the last 30  years. Based on the information obtained from them, the explanations follow as below. First, the increase of bare soil surfaces contributing to soil erosion is due to land plotting for the construction activities associated with urban expansion that occurs mostly only for two or three years. Later, it stabilizes either by growing vegetation in vacant areas or by the construction of buildings. Heavy sediments are often supplied from the bare soil areas during the rainy season. Besides, soil erosion on bare surface areas is high where sand and gravel have often been quarried. These areas also regularly supply sediments into the river beds. Second, from the field measurements of sediments in three streams at the hill foot it was estimated that about 29,738 m3 of sediments were deposited in the 1.3 km Sangla Khola (stream) channel during the summer rainy season. Likewise, the estimated sediment deposits were 27,064 m3 in the 1.1 km channel Koirala Khola, and 24,633 m3 in the Mahadev Khola channel (1 km). These volumes of sediments were found to have increased over the last three years due to the growing bare surface area in the upstream watershed area. The quarrying activities (sand and gravel) contribute to the soil erosion process in the hill slope areas, but they are illegal. It was observed that the river beds filled up with large amounts of sediments transported by the rivers flowing from the hill slopes. Third, two adverse impacts of human activities could be clearly seen in the valley. One was water overflowing from the rivers filled with sediments to the surrounding paddy fields, damaging the standing crops in the foot hill area during the rainy season. Another was the deepening and narrowing of the river channels due to excessive extraction of sand from the river bed in the valley floor. Large parts of cultivated land and infrastructure such as roads, bridges and buildings are assumed to be at risk outside the city core.

5.5 Discussion Soil erosion as described in this chapter is part of a complex chain of events and ultimately a result of the process of urbanization. Studies reveal that hill slope agriculture is highly prone to it with the consequence of desertification. The growing human population demands more land for settlement, and the growth of agriculture

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requires more land, possibly taken from forests, which results in deforestation and a thinner vegetation cover (Sati, 2006). These activities lead to soil erosion in the hill slope areas. Urbanization, the result of population pressure, requires a high amount of resources to continue and sustain its existence (Mundhe & Jaybhaye, 2015). New land for settlements encroaches on other land use/land cover areas. In the initial phase, bare soil surfaces for infrastructure development leads to increase in soil erosion, but later these surfaces become mostly non-erodible (Nguyen et al., 2019). In the Kathmandu Valley, rapidly growing urbanization across all areas of the valley floor and gradually over the hill slopes is a major cause for the high rates of soil erosion. Human activities, such as preparing land for construction works, and continuing quarrying of materials for the construction of urban related infrastructure on the hill slopes have led to high rates of soil erosion, thus creating serious environmental problems. The growing demand for construction materials has caused an increase in bare soil surfaces around the urban area, leading to high rates of soil erosion. The studies by Sayami and Tamrakar (2007) and Sada and Shrestha (2013) also indicated high rates of soil erosion in the surrounding hills, mainly due to illegal sand, gravel and stone extraction. This situation is common in other cities of developing countries in the world (UNEP, 2019). In the towns of Kathmandu Valley, most of these problems are related to excessive quarrying activities of sands and gravels, because of a weak implementation of the environmental conservation acts and lacking of monitoring from the respective authorities (Paudel et al., 2014; Basnet, 2016). Thus marginal hill slope area has the major problem of excessive soil erosion. Increasing built-up areas means decreasing soil loss due to erosion, but adversely affects groundwater recharge. The settlement area expands on cultivated land and bare surfaces, which is the general process of urbanization in the world (Nguyen et  al., 2019). The urbanization process in Kathmandu Valley appears to be near maturity, because of extremely limited vacant areas for further expansion. An increasing trend of soil erosion due to rapid urbanization is clearly visible on the hill slopes. Thus, urbanization has restricted it on the valley floor, but has a negative impact on the hill slopes. Field investigation has identified that increasing bare soil surfaces in the marginal parts of the steep hill slopes is the main cause of excessive soil erosion, although its rate has decreased in the valley floor in recent decades. Heavy sediment loads in the streams have caused heavy floods in the foothill areas during the rainy season, damaging fields, roads, and settlements. Local farmers used to collect sand coming into the stream during the rainy period to protect their fields from flooding and sell collected sands in the dry season. Using sedimentation in the streams as a pretext, contractors illegally collect excessive amounts of sand from the river beds below the foothill, thereby deepening the river bed. In the peripheral city region, this practice resulted in damage, and risking damaging roads, bridges, buildings, and fields. Thus, soil erosion not only causes heavy soil loss from the steep hill slope but has also multiple effects on the urban infrastructure in the foothill areas and peripheral regions of Kathmandu city. Additionally, frequent floods in the rainy season are reported in Kathmandu valley and their trend is increasing due to extreme rainfall in

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the recent past due to climate change (UN-Habitat, 2015). Past studies reported that increasing flash floods are not only the consequence of climate change in the cities of developing countries but go together with increasing sealing of surfaces due to urbanization, encroachment of drainage, and mismanagement of solid waste (Pervin et al., 2019). Although the increasing river sediment load is also an important factor of flooding (Nones, 2019), it is the most neglected aspect of urban flooding research. High soil erosion from the steep hill slopes has resulted in heavy sediment loads in the streams of Kathmandu Valley, which ultimately drain in the city area contributing to increasing flood levels. The sediment load combines with other factors such as rainfall intensity, increasing impervious surfaces, improper management of drainage channels, and solid waste. However, nobody has so far tried to focus on these aspects in Kathmandu valley. It is most important that sustainable flood management requires assessing all causes of flood in the city area, which ultimately touches the marginal parts of the city dwellers living along the river channels and on steep hill slopes.

5.6 Conclusion Urbanization in the Kathmandu Valley has a negative impact on the surrounding hill slopes, leading to soil erosion process. There is an increasing average soil erosion rate in the hill slope region, leading to the soil erosion in a critical state due to urban encroachment and bare soil surfaces, and the expansion of cultivated in the hill slope for urban agriculture. The bare soil surface areas are associated with the hill slopes, which were previously covered with vegetation; they can be called ‘environmental marginal areas’. Activities related to urban development such as land plotting for infrastructure development, quarrying, and road construction are responsible for such surfaces, and they will eventually alter the dynamics of the hydrological environment (Thapa et al., 2017). A weak implementation of rules and regulations to control resource extraction (sand, gravel, stones) can be blamed for soil erosion in the hill slopes. On the other hand, the bare soil surface area in the valley floor is diminishing, as opposed to the built-up area. Additional soil degradation in the valley floor is the result of a drastic decline of the groundwater level up to 80 m with the rate of 1–4 m per year in the deep aquifers (Shrestha et  al., 2012). This is due to an excessive withdrawal of groundwater for the consumption of the rapidly growing urban population. The tremendous increase of the urban built-up space (an impervious surface) means less open space for water recharge, which radically reduces the groundwater level. In recent years, excessive groundwater withdrawal has caused ground subsidence, another major problem in the valley: a mean subsidence rate of 8.06 cm/year has been observed in the valley (Krishnan & Kim, 2018). Finally, the lack of a law on urban land use zonation and of urban land use planning is the major cause of the haphazard land use change and urban expansion in the Kathmandu Valley, resulting in land degradation. Land development is

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unsustainable because it does not consider land use and drainage. Thus, the problem of soil erosion over the valley’s hill slopes needs to be controlled or managed by adopting and implementing the environmental protection acts, as well as by regulating and monitoring the quarrying activities to arrive at urban environmental sustainability.

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Chapter 6

Assessing Terrain Hazards for Sustainable Human Settlements in Chāngunārāyan Municipality of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal Krishna Karkee, Shakti Gurung, and Anish Joshi

6.1 Introduction Nepal is one of the most vulnerable mountainous countries of the world as concerns seismic, landslide and river flood hazards. The country had experienced numerous earthquakes in the past, the 2015 earthquake at 7.8 Richter scale being the most recent. Other hazards such as landslides, soil erosion, and river flash floods and siltation often occur during the monsoon rain season. These natural hazards damage every year many constructions, properties and crop lands, and harm or kill people and livestock, making many areas isolated or inaccessible due to extremely lacking roads across different parts of the country. In historic time, the traditional Nepalese settlements were tiny and strategically situated on the ridges and surrounding slopes. They were thus safe from malaria that prevailed in the warm river valleys, could preserve limited precious arable lands, and had protected them from possible attacks of the neighbouring tiny states (Regmi, 1978). Later, along with the political change and development activities, the settlements began to evolve in other areas including terrain hazard prone zones like hill slopes and flood plains, without considering safety planning measures. In recent years, natural hazards have increased remarkably in the country due to man-made factors, such as rapid population growth and migration, haphazard development of

K. Karkee (*) DRR and Humanitarian Response Professional and National Coordinator of Women Humanitarian and DRR Platform, Kathmandu, Nepal S. Gurung Centre for Disaster Management Studies and a Member Secretary of Women Humanitarian, Kathmandu, Nepal A. Joshi Genesis Consultancy Pvt. Ltd, Lalitpur, Nepal © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 P. K. Pradhan, W. Leimgruber (eds.), Nature, Society, and Marginality, Perspectives on Geographical Marginality 8, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21325-0_6

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infrastructure (roads, irrigation canals, water supply systems, sewer network, electricity lines, and public buildings), urbanization, poor construction practices, and lack of effective hazards safety considerations, among others. Planning of settlements and their associated facilities in the hazard risk areas including hill slopes, riverbanks, and flood areas in the country have been grossly neglected (Bothara et al., 2018). Safe and resilient settlement and infrastructure development is required to mitigate the risks and losses caused by the different hazards. The Kathmandu Valley of Nepal is among the oldest settled areas in the central Himalaya (Depuis, 1962). The early development of the towns and villages in the valley is believed to have taken place probably during the period ca 300–800 AD, and most of the prominent settlements appear to have expanded and consolidated by the beginning of the thirteenth century (HMG/UN/UNESCO, 1975). Those traditional settlements were built on upland plains, locally known as Tar lands with terrace fields on either side of the rivers, as well as on the surrounding ridges to keep away from the possible effect of river floods. Along with ceremonial complexes consisting of temples, shrines, and palaces they were prosperous in art, culture, and civilization, which were maintained due to sufficient food supply from their own rich agricultural resource base with productive soils and water supply, and entrepôt trade with Tibet and India (Pradhan, 2003). On the other hand, the valley lying in the main Himalayan thrust zone has been reportedly destroyed several times by destructive earthquakes. Other hazards such as river flash floods, landslides and soil erosion also often occur in the valley. Chāngunārāyan, our study area lying in the north-east part, is one of the historical towns of Kathmandu Valley. Like other towns and cities, this town was also damaged by the 2015 earthquake. The traditional settlement in the municipality consisting of mud-bonded brick masonry buildings with wooden frames is a mix of poor and rich communities. The poor people’s houses are poorly maintained, dilapidated condition and low height, or waiting for renovation. They keep on living in such houses or temporary shelters on the hill slopes or on the riverbanks despite vulnerable. Unlike poor people, the rich people keep maintaining their building or make stronger by retrofitting or construct new buildings in other places. This chapter analyzes the terrain hazards vis-à-vis the existing settlements and related infrastructure or environmental marginalization in the municipality and suggest a plan for sustainable human settlements.

6.2 Data and Methods This paper draws on data from the 2018 Pleiades 0.5 m MSS satellite imagery and field survey carried out in Chāngunārāyan municipality in the same year. The layers on land use include built-up area, road network and other uses and were prepared in the ArcGIS format (Dai et al., 2001). Information on probable terrain hazard areas and impacts due to landslides, floods and siltation was acquired from consultative meetings carried out with the communities at different localities of the municipality.

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In the meetings, maps showing locations of the probable terrain hazards were verified. Other digital and analogue data were gathered from the available public sources. Two types of terrain hazards such as landslide and flood areas have been identified and liquefaction potential (PL) has also been analyzed (Bendimerad, 2014; Bothara et  al., 2018). Factors like elevation, slope, and geological structure, and river drainage pattern with respect to settlement location and land uses were considered for this analysis. Generally, the greater the slope and the closer the location of land to the river bank the higher is the vulnerability, and conversely gentle slopes and a great distance from riverbank signify less vulnerability. Distance between riverbank and settlements and slope gradient were considered the important parameters for the vulnerability analysis. The areas within 15 meters buffer zone from the riverbanks as provided by the government (MoUD, 2020) are the flood prone zones and slope areas above 150 excluding flat ridge top (LRMP 1986) are considered unfeasible or environmentally vulnerable for human settlements, which have been identified. Studies available indicate that most of the poor and marginal communities live in the flood prone areas (CARE Nepal, 2008; DWIDP, 2009; MOPE, 1999; Sharma & Pradhan, 2017). The geological structure and properties have been used to analyse the potential liquéfaction hazards (seismic hazard susceptibility). At the end, a conservation plan for resilient settlement development and land use by different categories is provided.

6.3 Study Area Chāngunārāyan, one of four municipalities of Bhaktapur district, lies in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal (Fig. 6.1). The municipality covers an area of 62.98 km2 and had a population of 55,430 with a density of 880 persons per km2 (CBS, 2012). The town comprises several religious and cultural shrines, traditional rest houses (Satals), stone spouts, and ponds covering approximately 1.5 hectares, of which the famous fifth century Chāngunārāyan temple enlisted in the UNESCO World Heritage is significant for religious and cultural reasons. The temple lies on the ridge at 2191 masl (meter above sea level) and attracts a huge number of devotees and visitors every year. The town has maintained its historic settlements of different indigenous ethnic groups around the temples. Its topography consists of lowlands and hills, with elevations ranging from 1372 to 2191 masl (meter above sea level). Most land is devoted to agriculture, confined to the lowlands and the terraced hill slopes. Different crops are grown with rice as the major staple crop. Besides, wheat, potatoes, mustard, and varieties of seasonal vegetables (tomato, cauliflower, radish, cabbage, spinach, chilies, garlic, onion, etc.) are grown. The farmers have recently initiated commercial farming of off-­ season vegetables in the plastic tunnel technique. Forest covers over one-fourth of the municipal area. They are mixed forests of hard and soft tree species situated on the municipality’s northern hill slopes and surrounding the shrines. They are mostly

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Fig. 6.1  Location of Chāngunārāyan municipality, Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

managed by the communities. These forests are important for surface and groundwater recharging and protecting the hill slopes from degradation. The water bodies include rivers, springs and ponds and their water is used for irrigation and domestic purposes. Major rivers flowing through the municipality are the Manoharā, the Hanumante and the Khasāngkhusung. Most of the ponds are of cultural importance and some of them have been used for fishing. There is a major road to connect traditional town of Chāngunārāyan lying on the ridge with Bhaktapur (5.7 km) and Kathmandu (13 km), and all others in the municipality are earth roads, mostly not passable for vehicles during the rainy season. The population density of settlement areas shows 128.6 persons per ha. The river basin or arable land covers around 55% of the municipal area, where mostly other castes than Newar and Tamang ethnic communities live. Newars mostly live in the town and Tamang villages are scattered over the hill slopes. Overall, the poverty status of the municipality is lower than the national level (CBS, 2011).1 One project study indicates that even the poverty status of the subproject district of the Bhaktapur-­ Chāngunārāyan Road (5.7 km) is below poverty line (DoR, 2008). The people living

 The Nepal Living Standard Survey has defined poverty line at NRs 19,261 per person per year. This is approximately 225 US dollars. It shows that 25% Nepali people are below the absolute poverty line. 1

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in the scattered villages over the slopes or at places quite away from the main road without road access appear to be marginalized. Though there is no record available of housing type by structure in Chāngunārāyan town, it can be guesstimated from the studies carried out elsewhere in other parts of the country that the non-­engineered buildings in the Kathmandu Valley shares nearly 65%, exhibiting high vulnerability, i.e., the buildings have very low lateral resistant and limited ductility (Chaulagain et al., 2015; Goda et al., 2015). The 2011 census data indicate that the mud-bonded brick/stone masonry buildings are the most common (sharing 44.2%) in all geographical regions of Nepal (CBS, 2012). These buildings mostly belong to poor people. From these statistics, we can estimate that the poverty status and building conditions of traditional settlements in Chāngunārāyan municipality can be comparable with other parts of the country.

6.4 Results and Analysis 6.4.1 Change in Land Uses and Built-up Area The change in land use categories of Chāngunārāyan municipality over five years is depicted on Table 6.1, based on satellite images of 2012 and 2017. Among the four major land use types, identified on the basis of the national toposheet classification (SD, 1996), only cultivated land has decreased by about 10% during this period, while the other three land use types, viz. vegetated land (forest and tree clusters), settlements and other lands (roads, water bodies, sand, brick kiln and barren) have increased in surface with different rates, the largest being the “other land category”, followed by settlements and forests. The built area has increased by over 27% between 2012 and 2017, spreading mostly over the lowlands and foothills, which were previously used for agricultural purposes. Consequently, land value has soared immensely since the last decade, yet it was less than that in the two large neighbouring cities of Kathmandu and Bhaktapur. Urbanization has occurred haphazardly, encroaching upon prime agricultural land and hill slopes.

Table 6.1  Change in major land use categories in Chāngunārāyan municipality (2012–2017) Year 2012 2018 2028 2038

Built-up area 508.38 648.77 867.45 1068.34

Projected built up areas (ha) Change Increase (%) – – 140.39 27.61 218.67 33.71 200.89 23.16

Source: Genesis Consultancy (2018)

Annual growth rate (%) – 0.37 0.35 0.32

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Based on the BAU (Business-As-Usual) scenario model, the Markov Chain algorithm has calculated the projected growth of built-up areas comprising settlements, roads, recreational land (parks, playgrounds, etc.), institutional (public buildings, temples, etc.) and open spaces at 27.6% in 2018 (Genesis Consultancy, 2018), but with a declining tendency after 2018 (Table 6.2). According to these scenarios, the growth of built-up areas is projected to occur in the southern part of the municipality (Fig. 6.2). They are based on the population growth rate of 2011 (1.44%). The population is therefore expected to increase to 63,997 in 2021, 73,888 in 2031 and 85,308 in 2041 (Genesis Consultancy, 2018). This is due to the impact of the rapid urbanization of the two neighbouring large cities which expand on the land of Chāngunārāyan. Therefore, a further expansion of the built-up areas can be expected in the municipality. This calls for urgent planning for the conservation of agricultural and forest land.

Table 6.2  Current built-up area and its projected growth (ha), Chāngunārāyan Municipality Land use (LU) types Cultivated Vegetated Settlements Other lands Total

Built up areas (ha) 2012 % 2017 4705.70 74.6 4283.41 1151.92 18.3 1374.34 431.12 6.8 548.04 21.24 0.3 104.19 6309.98 100 6309.98

% 67.9 21.8 8.7 1.7 100

Change area 2012–2017 422.29 (−) 222.42 116.92 82.95 844.58

Source: Genesis Consultancy (2018)

Fig. 6.2  Expansion of built-up areas between and 2012 and 2018

Change % by LU type 9.97 (−) 19.31 27.12 390.65 13.38

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6.4.2 Terrain Hazards Here, two types of terrain hazard including landslide and earthquake with respect to settlement and land uses are considered. This section is devoted to an analysis of two terrain hazards that concern settlements and land use: landslides and soil liquefaction. 6.4.2.1 Landslide Hazards Consisting of hills and valleys, Chāngunārāyan municipality often experiences landslides and floods. Usually, the slopes are prone to the risk of landslides, and the lowlands near to the rivers are at the risk of flash floods. Soil erosion occurs on the hill slopes. These hazards are caused by incessant torrential monsoon rains. On the 2018 satellite images, more than 200 landslides were identified. Every year these hazards cause huge losses by damaging properties and killing people. For instance, in 2016 and 2018, the settlements and agricultural fields around the Manoharā River and the Hanumante River were submerged when flash floods occurred in those rivers (Genesis Consultancy, 2018). In 2018, 3 persons were killed, and huge properties were damaged by landslides. The study also revealed that it is usually the landless, poor and wage laborers living on vulnerable lands such as riverbanks and steep slopes who are most affected). Further, slope angle is an important factor causing landslides, while ground cover with plants enables to protect land from landslides. Thus, bare ground no matter what slope degree is more prone to the hazards of landslides and soil erosion. In Chāngunārāyan municipality, most of the land having slopes of 15 degrees and below are lowland and possibly more prone to flood hazard (Fig. 6.3). However, sunny slope areas are also preferable sites for Nepalese human settlements and cultivation. The landslide hazard map has been prepared based on intrinsic factors like bedrock geology, slope gradient, slope aspect, elevation, land use pattern, drainage pattern, soil depth, and soil type, as well as of extrinsic factors such as rainfall and earthquakes. Figure  6.4 shows a high landslide hazard mostly in the eastern and northern parts of the municipality. It can also be related to soil erosion (Genesis Consultancy, 2018). Signs of soil creeping were observed at various places including the Changunarayan Temple area in the central-west part, where the traditional Newar settlements are located). The information shown in Table  6.3 is based on the overlay of landslide area layer and elevation layer. The table shows that landslide prone areas are decreasing with higher elevation. Important factors of landslides are exposure to the sun, lacking plant cover (bare ground) and human activities such as haphazard clearance and removing land for development projects (road and buildings), and the presence of soft sediments that appear to have triggered the landslides. These factors are also responsible for erosion. Forests still cover the higher elevations and steep slopes where access is difficult.

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Fig. 6.3  Distribution of slope (degree), Chāngunārāyan municipality

Fig. 6.4  Levels of landslide hazard, Chāngunārāyan municipality

K. Karkee et al.

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Table 6.3  Elevation and landslide, Chāngunārāyan municipality Elevation class (m) < 1400 1400–1600 1600–1800 1800–2000 > 2000 Total %

Area in hectare Low Moderate 931.9 2462.8 188.0 1042.1 183.5 639.1 71.0 333 9.1 48.6 1383.6 4525.7 22.0 71.9

High 64.7 242.6 50.3 21.8 1.8 381.3 6.1

Total 3459.4 1472.9 873.0 425.8 59.6 6290.6 100

% 55.0 23.4 13.9 6.8 0.9 100.0

Source: Genesis Consultancy (2018) Table 6.4  Classification of liquefaction susceptibility potentials Values PL = 0 0 65 56–65 46–55 36–45 26–35 15–25 Migration place Yen Bai Son La Lao Cai Living experience in un village Less than 20 years More than 20 years Education level Illiterate Primary school Secondary school No. of household members Less than 5 More than 5 Religion Christianity

Persons

Percentage (%)

0 1 4 7 1 1

0 7 29 50 7 7

1 9 4

7 64 29

3 11

21 79

8 5 1

57 36 7

0 14

0 100

14

100

Source: Field Survey, 2017

occurring in the two main state interventions in Un village: the forestland allocation policy and the sedentarization program. In this section, we also analyze the ways in which local resistance can go beyond state surveillance. The discussion and conclusion are presented in the final section.

16.4 Outline of the Study Site Un village lies at the north-western border of Thanh Hoa province (Fig. 16.1). It borders Son La province to the north. The village has 93 households with a total population of 609 Hmong persons. They live in an area of approximately 400 hectares spread out over a mountainous zone with an elevation between 650 and 700 m above sea level and steep slopes ranging from 25° to 30°. This village is relatively isolated as it is about 300 km from the central city of Thanh Hoa province. It has an extremely limited road access, especially during the rainy season. The distance from

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Fig. 16.1  Location of research site

the center of Muong Lat district to Un village is only approximately 30 km; however, it takes more than three hours to get to the village by motorbike on a small, rough road and then on water. The people of this village originally lived in the northern provinces of Son La, Lao Cai, and Yen Bai (Fig. 16.1). Each group from the different provinces belongs to a different subgroup of Hmong. The group from Son La province belongs to the Black Hmong, the group from Lao Cai province to the Flower Hmong subgroup, and the group from Yen Bai province to the White Hmong. These three groups migrated to Un village at different times from 1991 to 2001. The first lineage of 12 households in the Vang clan from Yen Bai province settled in the village in 1991. Meanwhile, the group from Lao Cai province, consisting of the four clans of Ho, Mua, Giang, and Sung, moved to Un village from 1992 to 1996. The Phang, Hang, Lo, Thao, Ly, and Sung clans from Son La province migrated to the village between 1993 and 2001. Chain migration was also popular among the Hmong people. For instance, the Mua clan from Lao Cai province came to this village in 1995, receiving information on Un village from the Ho clan who migrated earlier in 1992. In 1994, the local authorities tried to evict these Hmong people and send them back to their places of

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origin, but failed. They quickly returned to Un village and brought more relatives back with them. The reasons for migration differed among the three groups. For the Yen Bai group, their land was too exhausted for shifting cultivation, which led them to leave their original place. The land of the Lao Cai group was still fertile and abundant for cultivation. They migrated to avoid the ban on Christianity by the government. Since 1992, the government has strictly banned opium poppy cultivation, which was the main traditional income source for the Son La group,2 causing them to migrate to Un village, which is difficult for outsiders to access. In 1997, the local authorities in Thanh Hoa province officially recognized Un village. Since then, they have begun to invest in the village infrastructure. In 2006, the access road to the village was constructed, among which only 2 km of 8 km was paved. The primary school and kindergarten were built in 2008, and most of their teachers were dispatched Kinh people, the ethnic majority in Vietnam.

16.5 Results 16.5.1 The Sociopolitical and Economic Situation of Un Village before State Intervention When they moved to Un village, each of the Lao Cai, Yen Bai, and Son La groups settled in three separate areas. Each group of households lived together based on clans and religious beliefs. The residential areas of each group are in the watershed protection forest, which borders Thanh Hoa and Son La provinces. The area is rich in natural forests, has a rugged topography, and the climate is suitable for the traditional livelihood activities of the Hmong people. In order to preserve their subsistence economy, cultivating in burnt-over land was the main, vital economic practice of the people of Un village. In this practice, the villagers cleared the slash-and-burn fields within the ownership of their community to grow two or three crops, depending on the fertility of the land. After that, they left the plots of the impoverished land for eight to ten years so that the soil could regain its fertility, after which they returned to cultivate these plots. According to our questionnaire survey, before 1998, each household had 1.7 ha of arable land on average, while the largest household had 5 ha, and the smallest one had 0.5 ha (Table 16.2). The cultivated lands of the households were located on both the Son La province side and the territory of Un village. In shifting cultivation, the villagers carried out multi- and inter-cropping on pieces of sloping land. Rice was grown in the central part of the piece, while the surrounding space was used for corn, vegetables, cassava, and medicinal herbs. This multi- and inter-cropping  They had converted to Christianity before migration, and the government’’s suppression of Christianity was another reason for their migration. 2

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Table 16.2  Landholding per household in 1998 No Place before migration 1 Bac yen district, son La Province 2 Moc Chau district, son La Province 3 Moc Chau district, son La Province 4 Bac yen district, son La Province 5 Phu Yen district, son La Province 6 Moc Chau district, son La Province 7 Phu Yen district, son La Province 8 Yen Chau district, son La Province 9 Moc Chau district, son La Province 10 Muong Khuong district, Lao Cai Province 11 Bac ha district, Lao Cai Province 12 Bac ha district, Lao Cai Province 13 Bac ha district, Lao Cai Province 14 Man Cong district, Yen Bai Province Total Average

Migration year 1993 1995 1995 1996 1996 1996 1998 1999 2001 1992 1995 1995 1996 1991

Landholding 1998 (ha) Total Un Son La 5 1 4 1.3 1.3 0 1 1 0 2 1 1 1.4 0.4 1 2.5 1 1.5 0.5 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 1 1 0 4 2 2 23.7 13.7 10 1.7 1.0 0.7

Source: Field Survey, 2017

model provided enough produce to ensure self-sufficiency and secure the food supply for their families. Hunting and harvesting of forest products were other important economic activities in Un village. Raising livestock and poultry was also popular, and they were used for daily food and special dishes in cultural activities. The villagers practiced upland swidden cultivation in a closed cycle. With rich soil and forests, the land rotation of the Un villagers was carried out over eight to ten years. After a fallow period for forests to regenerate and soil to re-fertilize, the villagers slashed and burned areas to grow crops in places other than the degraded plots. In addition to protecting upland fields from becoming impoverished, the villagers also established regulations and customary rules to protect the forests. As for the Yen Bai group, the head of the clan stipulated the sacred forest had an area of about 2 hectares. This forest was used to worship, and no one was allowed to cut down its trees or cultivate it. As for the Son La group, the watershed forest area was zoned for protection and preservation as it maintains water supply for the whole group. In daily life, mutual assistance in production and distribution was a common practice of the people in Un village. In cultivation and other production activities, the rotating and exchanging of laborers among members with a blood relationship and those who had warm neighborhood relations was popular within the group. In the harvest season, some households got together and took turns in harvesting for the individual household. This type of exchanging laborers was practiced over the whole cycle of upland cultivation, from burning, tilling, and weeding to harvesting.

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Rotating and exchanging laborers ensured that all families were able to grow crops at a suitable time, because rice and maize were the main crops for the Hmong people in Un village. Apart from the equality of mutual support, the Hmong people in each of the three groups assisted each other in their daily lives. If a household in the group faced poor working conditions, those with better conditions would help without payment. This transaction not only provided help among the households of the same clan but also extended to the whole community. Mutual support was voluntary rather than compulsory. The Son La group, who are Christians, established a fund to support households going through difficulties and for group activities. The group fund was raised with the voluntary contributions of every individual from every household in the group, according to the 1/10 rule. The 1/10 rule means that if a household harvested ten bags of rice in the productive season, they would contribute one bag to the fund. The fund would be used to support the families in need, as gifts for sick people, and for community activities, such as Christmas, Easter, and the New Year. In addition to labor assistance, the sharing of cultivation land with newly relocated households by long-standing households with large land plots was also common in the village. The mutual support and assistance among the families in each group ensured that all households in the community had enough food for survival. As a result, social relationships in the community were maintained and strengthened. In summary, the livelihoods and social structure of the three Hmong groups in Un village were characterized by an economy based on relationships. That is, they shared a moral economy with many agreements on culture, society, and technology, ensuring a “subsistence ethic” (Scott, 1976) in which safety was most important. The people of Un village tended to avoid resorting to behaviors that could create risks, especially if they were to make their family’s economic life fall below the acceptable point of self-sufficiency.

16.5.2 State Interventions and Local Responses There were two main state interventions in Un village, on which this section will focus. The first is the forestland allocation that started in 1998, and the other is the sedentarization program that began in 2009. 16.5.2.1 The Forestland Allocation and Local Responses Before the forestland allocation, besides swidden lands in Un village, the villagers also crossed the provincial border to cultivate lands in Son La province. To ensure self-sufficiency and food supply, the area of one’s reclaimed land depended on the size of the household. The bigger the family, the more reclaimed land they had. Within the territory of Un village, there was also a sacred forest, the cultivation of which was strictly forbidden by the community.

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The Muong Lat district government implemented the process of forestland allocation to individual households in 1998. It ignored the village’s customary land use rights, and, thus, the villagers found it strange to adjust their land rights to comply with government regulations. When implementing the forestland allocation, the authorities did not consider the reality and current conditions of the area in terms of the swidden cultivation that the people had been practising. They only zoned the area of land allocation within the boundary of Un village. Moreover, the acreage of allocated lands was 2 ha for each household, irrespective of family size. The location of the allocated lands was determined by lottery, without considering the distance from people’s houses. Before the forestland allocation, lands and houses were often close to each other for convenient cultivation, care, and harvest. When allocating forestland, the authorities did not pay attention to the customary rules of the community. The sacred forest, which was protected by the community, was divided into small plots and listed as lands to be handed to individual households. This forestland allocation process ignored the customary rules and resulted in the villagers’ resistance. They refused to follow the authorities’ allocation of the land and agreed to continue cultivating the lands as they had done before. At the same time, most people in Un village refused to receive the certificate of land use rights that the district officers assigned to the individual households. Of the 14 interviewed households, only two had received the certificate, while the others had refused it. However, the two households that received the certificate did not cultivate the allocated lands. One of them gave the reasons: In the past, our family had one ha of upland fields. In 1998, we were allocated 2 ha by the authorities. The land assigned to us used to be cultivated by 3 families in the village. Meanwhile, the land we formerly used was nearer to my house than the allocated land. Although the area divided by the authorities was bigger than our land, it was the other families’ land, so I did not take it. If I had followed the authorities, there would have been arguments or conflicts among the households in the village, while we are living in harmony. Because it did not meet the people’s wishes, it was impossible for me to follow the authorities’ method for dividing the land. (A 44-year-old head of household)

By refusing the land use right certificates and ignoring the state intervention, the villagers could keep their lands and avoid disturbing community harmony and customary rules. They could even continue to reclaim and expand cultivated areas on the Son La province side. As a result, after the failure of the forestland allocation process, the total acreage of the cultivated land of the 14 interviewed households increased in comparison to that recorded in 1998. Each household had 4.5 hectares on average in 2009, whereas it was 1.7 hectares in 1998, which is about 2.5 times more. In particular, the average acreage of the land on the Son La province side jumped from 0.7 hectares in 1999 to 2.9 hectares (Table 16.3). The refusal to receive land use rights certificates indicates that the customary power of regulation over land relations expanded and intensified, while the state’s regulatory power was diminished.

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Table 16.3  Changes in landholding between 1998 and 2009

ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Total Average

Year migration 1993 1995 1995 1996 1996 1996 1998 1999 2001 1992 1995 1995 1996 1991 23.7 1.7

Landholding 1998 (ha) Son Total Un La 5 1 4 1.3 1.3 0 1 1 0 2 1 1 1.4 0.4 1 2.5 1 1.5 0.5 0 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 2 2 0 1 1 0 4 2 2 13.7 10 62.9 1.0 0.7 4.5

Landholding 2009 (ha) Son Total Un La 6 1 5 3.1 2.3 0.8 4 1 3 6 2 4 4.4 0.4 4 8 2 6 2.3 0 2.3 3 0 3 2.1 1.5 0.6 3.7 1.7 2 5 3 2 3.3 3.3 0 4 2 2 8 2 6 22.2 40.7 39.2 1.6 2.9 2.8

Changed 1998/2009 (ha) Son Total Un La 1 0 1 1.8 1 0.8 3 0 3 4 1 3 3 0 3 5.5 1 4.5 1.8 0 1.8 3 0 3 2.1 1.5 0.6 2.7 0.7 2 3 1 2 1.3 1.3 0 3 1 2 4 0 4 8.5 30.7 0.6 2.2

Source: Field Survey, 2017

16.5.2.2 The Sedentarization Program and Local Response The project of stabilizing the life, production, and socioeconomic development of the Hmong people in the Muong Lat district was implemented in 2009. This program has been put into practice throughout the district, which has 15 villages, including Un village. Generally, the Hmong people live in mountainous areas with steep terrain, which makes it difficult for the state to control them. Therefore, the objectives of the program were to stabilize the local population in order to integrate them into the socioeconomic development plans and facilitate synchronized investments in the basic infrastructure of each village. The program sought to convince the Hmong people in Un village to have permanent settlements without free migration by 2010. The goals were to transform shifting cultivation practices into other more effective economic activities, prevent the replanting of the traditional drugs of the Hmong people, overcome poverty step-by-step, and contribute to retaining the national defense and security, especially along the border. Accordingly, the program sought to resettle the Hmong people from the watershed forests, allegedly at risk of being destroyed, to a lower-lying area in stable settlements for long-term convenience and the benefits of state investments in infrastructure construction. The new residential area is about 2–3 km away from the old one. Apart from Un village, the district authority includes 15 villages with 353 households and 2118 people, who were moved to the planned area.

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In order to help the people settle in, the district authority leveled the ground and arranged living spaces for all 64 households in Un village. The new residential area was divided into two groups of households, namely the Lao Cai group and the Son La group, with a floorplan of approximately 140 m2 per house. The location of each group’s accommodation was performed by self-selection. However, after leveling the area for the Son La group, there was only enough room for 25 of the 40 households. The district authority therefore randomly selected 15 households belonging to the Son La group and forced them to live in an area with 24 households from the Lao Cai group. However, the 15 families from the Son La group had lived in the same hamlet and were familiar with each other. They did not agree to move to the area that the authorities had planned and arranged. In order to have houses for these households, others in the Son La group supported them by letting the old neighbors stay near their homes. That the households themselves arranged the living area together ensured that the families with bloodlines or neighbor relations could live together as before. Apart from zoning the settlement area, the authorities stabilized the cultivation area of the people of Un village. In this process, the people could only cultivate the upland fields within the border of Un village. They were banned from slashing and burning land outside Un village, especially in the watershed forest of Son La province, where many households from Un village had cultivated before 2009. To execute this regulation, rangers and border guards often made checks, especially in February, when the villagers started to burn forests, to prevent new reclamation. However, the implementation of fixed cultivation and limiting shifting cultivation in the village could not completely prevent these practices. The households in the village continued to cultivate the upland fields that they had claimed before. There was mutual assistance among the Hmong people. Whenever they heard that a forest was being checked, the people working in the fields in Son La would report to others to escape to avoid being caught by the forest rangers. A 32-year-old interviewee of the Yen Bai group said the following: After implementing sedentary farming, from 2011-2012, rangers start patrolling the land on the Son La side. In addition to using the old upland fields that were cleared in the previous crop, my family can only expand by 0.2 hectares next to that plot of land and cannot slash and burn freely new land as before. In February or March, the time when we clear for new upland fields, forest rangers usually patrol. Whenever they come, I am informed by the Hmong people in Son La; therefore, I know and run away. Thanks to that, I have not been caught by rangers yet and can still cultivate in upland fields in Son La.

According to the data from the interviews, there are six households (42%) that continue to practice shifting cultivation on their old land in Son La, which was reclaimed and abandoned to be fertile again before the sedentarization. In addition, eight households (57%) have not only used their old upland plot but also extended their new cultivation area. Accordingly, the average cultivation area per household increased from 4.5 hectares in 2009, before sedentarization, to 5.5 hectares in 2017 (Table 16.4).

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Table 16.4  Change in landholding between 2009 and 2017 ID Year migration 1 1993 2 1995 3 1995 4 1996 5 1996 6 1996 7 1998 8 1999 9 2001 10 1992 11 1995 12 1995 13 1996 14 1991 Total Average

Landholding 2009 (ha) Total Un Son La 6 1 5 3.1 2.3 0.8 4 1 3 6 2 4 4.4 0.4 4 8 2 6 2.3 0 2.3 3 0 3 2.1 1.5 0.6 3.7 1.7 2 5 3 2 3.3 3.3 0 4 2 2 8 2 6 62.9 22.2 40.7 4.5 1.6 2.9

Landholding 2017 (ha) Total Un Son La 6.0 1.0 5.0 3.5 2.3 1.2 6.0 1.0 5.0 6.0 2.0 4.0 6.4 0.4 6.0 8.0 2.0 6.0 3.1 0.8 2.3 4.0 0.0 4.0 3.5 2.5 1.0 6.7 2.7 4 6 4 2 4.6 4.3 0.3 5 3 2 8.2 2 6.2 77.0 28.0 49.0 5.5 2.0 3.5

Changed 2017/2009 Total Un Son La 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.4 3.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 1.3 1.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 14.1 5.8 8.3 1.2 0.4 0.6

Source: Field Survey, 2017

In addition to preventing the spread of clearing forests for farming land, rangers also try to stop the replanting of traditional drugs. However, their efforts at prevention have been neither thorough nor successful. In order to earn more, some households continue to plant the traditional drug plants of the Hmong people in the Son La area for medical treatment and sale. Drug plants are grown on small plots of land and mingled with cultivation fields, making it difficult for forest rangers to detect them.

16.6 Discussion and Conclusion This study describes how the Hmong people of Un village practice forms of everyday resistance to avoid the surveillance of the state. The Hmong people in Un village have their own knowledge, traditional farming system, land tenure system, customs and subsistence ethics. These traditional systems have been constructed from the long-stand adaptation to the natural environment, being embedded in their landscapes and customary laws. Moreover, their systems have been regularly practiced and well maintained among the Hmong people in Un village. From the viewpoint of the Vietnamese government, however, the socio-political systems of ethnic minorities are still considered a lower stage of development (Michaud, 2009). Ethnic minority peoples’ livelihoods and cultural practices are blamed as primitive, traditional, and backward, a cause of poverty. In particular,

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swidden cultivation is often deemed unproductive and detrimental to the environment. In line with this argument, the Vietnamese government pretends these traditional systems are the main reason why the Hmong live still in poverty and hardship. Therefore, the state has implemented the forestland allocation and sedentarization programs in an effort to ‘modernize’ the Hmong people. At the same time, it aims to control people and resources through surveillance under the state’s regulations. In fact, for many modern states, especially post-colonial ones in Asia, like Vietnam, a fundamental challenge to their power and sovereignty is the integration of their diverse ethnic groups within their national borders and society (Hall et al., 2011; Ducan, 2004; Salemink, 1997). However, the processes did not work as expected. This study found that the Hmong people in Un village are neither passive nor accepting the status created by the state. The forestland allocation and sedentarization programs have ignored the village’s traditional systems and threated the harmonious life of the community. Thus, the Hmong have employed the strategy of “everyday forms of resistance” (Scott, 1985) in order to avoid the surveillance of the state, who is trying to extract their resources and dominate them. Even though the sedentarization program seems to have successfully established fixed settlements, it has failed to create fixed farming. The Hmong people continue to expand their encroachment of shifting cultivation outside the village territory and tacitly cultivate the traditional drug plants of the Hmong people. Shifting cultivation, rather than a primitive form of agriculture practiced in the uplands from state’s perspective, was an “escape crop” to resist the “friction of appropriation” of state (Scott, 2009). By using a settlement pattern to create friction and distance from the state’s power, the Hmong people have successfully repelled the state’s surveillance. This study indicates that government policies and programs are not always implemented as they are planned, especially when they are far from the local reality. The local context plays an important role in helping local people go beyond the state’s surveillance.

References Do, S. D. (1994). Shifting Cultivation in Vietnam: Its Social, Economic and Environmental Values Relative to Alternative Land Use. International Institute for Environment and Development, London, IIED Forestry and Land Use Series, No.3, p.55. Ducan, R.  C. (2004). Legislating modernity among the marginalized. In R.  C. Ducan (Ed.), Civilizing the Margins: Southeast Asian Government Policies for the Development of Minorities (pp. 1–23). Cornell University Press. Fox, J., Truong, D. M., Rambo, A. T., Tuyen, N. P., Cuc, L. T., & Leisz, S. (2000). Shifting cultivation: A new old paradigm for managing tropical forests. Bioscience, 50(6), 521–528. https:// doi.org/10.1641/0006-­3568(2000)050[0521:SCANOP]2.0.CO;2 Fox, J., Fujita, Y., Ngidang, D., Peluso, N., Potter, L., Sakuntaladewi, N., Sturgeon, J., & Thomas, D. (2009). Policies, political-economy, and Swidden in Southeast Asia. Human Ecology, 37(3), 305–322. Hall, D., Hirsch, P., & Li, M. T. (2011). Powers of Land Dilemmas in Southeast Asia: Challenges of the Agrarian Transition in Southeast Asia. National University of Singapore Press.

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Keyes, C. (2002). Presidential address: “The peoples of Asia”-science and politics in the classification of ethnic groups in Thailand, China, and Vietnam. The Journal of Asian Studies, 61(4), 1163–1203. McCaskill, D. (1997). From tribal peoples to ethnic minorities: The transformation of indigenous peoples. In D.  McCaskill & K.  Kampe (Eds.), Development or Domestication? Indigenous People of South-East Asia (pp. 26–60). Silkworm Books. Michaud, J. (2009). Handling mountain minorities in China, Vietnam and Laos: From history to current concerns. Asian Ethnicity, 10(1), 25–49. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631360802628442 Nguyen, V. C. (2008). From swidden cultivation to fixed farming and settlement: Effects of sedentarization policies among the Kmhmu in Vietnam. Journal of Vietnamese Studies, 3(3), 44–80. Rambo, A. T., & Jamieson, L. N. (2003). Upland areas, ethnic minorities, and development. In V. L. Hy (Ed.), PostWar Vietnam: Dynamics of a Transforming Society (pp. 139–170). Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Salemink, O. (1997). The king of fire and Vietnamese ethnic policy in the central highlands. In D.  McCaskill & K.  Kampe (Eds.), Development or Domestication? Indigenous People of South-East Asia (pp. 488–535). Silkworm Books. Scott, C.  J. (1985). Weapons of the Weak: Everyday Forms of Peasant Resistance. Yale University Press. Scott, C. J. (2009). The Art of not being Governed: An Anarchist History of Upland Southeast Asia (pp. 1–464). http://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300169171/art-­not-­being-­governed Tran, V. H. (1996). The changes of socio-economic of Dao people in Tan Dan commune, Hoanh Bo district, Quang Ninh Province. Journal of Anthoropology Vietnam, 4, 56–64. Tran, D. V. (2007). Solutions in Fallow Management: Swidden Agriculture Experience in Vietnam’s Uplands. Center for Agricultural Research and Ecological Studies, Hanoi Agricultural University.

Part V

Regional Policy Issues

The last chapter deals with regional development. At the core of Baral’s contribution on a small region in the central Nepal mountains are spatial and social marginalization, due to the unfair provision of facilities (spatial) and discrimination of lower groups (social). The planning of service centers is often based on political and not technical criteria, while discrimination has its roots in the caste system, which is hard to eradicate. A stark contrast is offered by Chursky and co-authors on the problems of regional development in Poland, which must be seen in the context or European Union regional policy. The EU is seeking to reduce internal disparities through its cohesion policy, but as a top-­down policy, it will be difficult to attain that goal. Finally, a further contrast can be seen in the chapter by Yermiash and Kark. They use a historical approach on a marginal region of the former Ottoman Empire and illustrate how in the course of time settlement policy did not really manage to lead a small region out of marginality.

Chapter 17

Accessibility and Governance Systems in Local Development: Measuring Marginality in the Mid-Marsyāngdi River Basin, Nepal Balkrishna Baral

17.1 Introduction 17.1.1 Brief Account of Development of Accessibility in Nepal Nepal is a nation of geographical and social diversity. Many indigenous communities live across the hills and mountains in the middle and northern settlement belts, as well as in the Tarai plain of the south. The mountains are the traditional homeland of the Nepalese. From the very beginning, the indigenous communities in the middle hill belt appear to have inhabited distinctive territorial pockets, and the settlements were mostly tiny and scattered and were closed economic units producing the basic requirements of life (Regmi, 1971; Hagen, 1971). Roads were lacking, and the rugged mountain terrain imposed severe limits on the movement of goods and people. During the second half of the eighteenth century, when several tiny states were unified into Nepal as a single nation, people’s mobility across the hills and mountains in the country increased. Of particular importance were the movements of the Newar, the native ethnic group of Kathmandu Valley, who were traders and manufacturers by tradition. Their goals were several strategic locations or break of bulk points along the traditional trans-Himalayan trade routes across the country, and they set up long-distance trading posts (Blaikie et al., 1976). During the early nineteenth century, the country saw an improvement in communications and transport based on the administration of the postal system of locally organized porterage, and the establishment of a series of staging posts manned by locals and operating under the supervision of administrative offices situated at strategic points along the trails (Regmi, 1988). Some of the offices of this kind were located in important towns along the crucial routes across the country. Such crucial routes for instance from B. Baral (*) Independent Local Development Specialist, Kathmandu, Nepal © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 P. K. Pradhan, W. Leimgruber (eds.), Nature, Society, and Marginality, Perspectives on Geographical Marginality 8, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21325-0_17

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Kathmandu Valley to connect hill towns were Bandipur, Pokhara and Tansen in the west, Silgadi in the far west, and Chainpur and Dhankuta in the east (Blaikie et al., 1976). They continued to act as a major long distance trading posts. The warm river valleys and the foothills were inhabitable mainly because of their weaker strategic location and the prevalence of malaria but were used for subsistence food crop production (Gurung, 1971). After the initiation of the malaria eradication programme in the late 1950s, the warmer valleys in the hills and the Tarai plain became habitable and people began to move to the warmer valleys and the Tarai plain for exploring better economic activities such as agriculture and trade. Planned development efforts in Nepal began in the mid-1950s and have continued since. The plans so far undertaken have been focusing on building physical infrastructure including irrigation, roads, bridges, communication, and power for setting up the basis of development. With the provision of those facilities, it was assumed that the people would have an easy access to such infrastructure facilities. The national plans also initiated several strategies, including policy measures and programmes to develop rural areas, but most of them failed to achieve their targets. Usually, the major weakness was that most of the benefits of these development activities accrued to the few rich landlord groups who had vested interests, while the poor were deprived of the process of development (Pradhan, 1982). Particularly in the Seventh National Plan (1986–1990), ‘Service Centre Approach’ was adopted to induce growth from below through establishing rural service centres in each district. The approach identified ‘basic services’ comprising education, health, security, agriculture extension service, veterinary, communication, water and sanitation, etc. to bet set up in each service centre for delivering them to the people across the country (HMG, 1985). In Nepal, two important factors for an effective accessibility of the people to basic facilities are roads and service centres or market towns. First, the opening of new roads appears to be the first stage in the development of various productive activities, as well as the integration between urban and rural areas (Shrestha, 1973–74; Blaikie et al., 1976; Schroeder & Sisler, 1980; Pradhan, 1982; Pradhan & Routray, 1992). But the pace of road building across different parts of the country is very slow due mainly to the lack of financial resources and a sincere commitment of the government. Only in 1956, the first road, the Tribhuvan highway (190 km) was built, linking the Kathmandu Valley to the Tarai in the south on the border with India. The construction of other roads followed but with very slow progress (Pradhan, 1982). Until now, not all districts are connected to the road network. In the hills and mountains, the roads being built are of two types: fair-weather roads where vehicles can operate seasonally, and all-weather road, where vehicles can operate all year round. The latter type accounted for only 30% of the total rural road network, while the former type together with the non-operation roads (abandoned roads due to badly damaged or lack of maintenance) make up the remaining 70% (DOLIDAR, 2011). Alternatively, the trail networks comprising east-west tracts as main arteries and their tributary trails to the south and north across the hills and mountains are still important and working in the absence of motor roads, although villagers need a lot of time and energy to travel on foot along such trails to reach the

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nearest service centres. These trails were mostly built during the nineteenth century, to deliver government supplies and promote trade and commerce. However, river floods during the monsoon season (July–September) make it difficult for local people to leave their villages as bridges are lacking. The development of rural regions can be encouraged by offering vital services to the inhabitants in market towns. Dispersed settlement in hills and mountains is a crucial problem, and so is the lack of a good road network for urban centres. Given these circumstances, it is difficult to provide adequate and economically feasible basic infrastructure and services. The development of rural regions can be encouraged by offering vital services to the inhabitants in market towns. Dispersed settlement in hills and mountains is a crucial problem, and so is the lack of a good road network for urban centres. Given these circumstances, it is difficult to provide adequate and economically feasible basic infrastructure and services.

17.1.2 Brief Description of Accessibility in Lamjung District This sub-unit addresses these problems in the case of the district of Lamjung in Gandaki province, western hill region. In historic time, the district like other districts of Nepal had acted as major entrepôt for the trade between India through Chitwan, Tarai in the south and the mountain district of Manang and Tibet (China) in the north (Messerschmidt, 1980).1 Until 1950, Lamjung used to export food to Manang and Tibet, and in turn imported Tibetan salt and medicinal herbs. The district administrative centre was often shifted over time. For instance, Sundarbazār was the first administrative centre in 1839, but was replaced by Parewadāndā in 1882. In 1949, Kunchhā was designated as the district headquarters and remained so till 1970. The headquarters was eventually shifted to Besishahar in 1971, its current location. In Lamjung district, agriculture is the main occupation of the majority of the population with tourism and local resource-based small enterprises as additional economic activities. The major income source, however, are remittances from locals who emigrated abroad for work. The district entered the modern transportation era, when the Dumre-Besishahar Road, connecting to the Prithvi highway (Pokhara-­ Kathmandu) was completed and opened to vehicles in 1986. Likewise, the construction of the first hydropower project—the Mid-Marsyāngdi power station (70 MW) was completed in 2008. As a result, the movement of people—coming in  There were several mountains passes or trade routes, also known as ‘salt route’ between Nepal and Tibet from east to west. Some of the important routes in terms of volume of trade were Kora-La and Lo-Manthang via upper Mustang and Manang in the west, Kerung and Kuti via Kathmandu Valley in the centre, and Nangpa-La and Wollangchung via Khumbu in the east. Two of the most important goods traded were salt from the lakes of Tibet and rice from the Middle Hills of Nepal(Haimendorf, 1971; Pant, 1962). 1

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Fig. 17.1  Location of the Marsyāngdi River Basin in Lamjung District, Nepal. (Source: Survey Department 1996, District map of Lamjung, Nepal, Kathmandu)

and going out began in the district. These have brought about transformations in social, economic and cultural phenomena in the basin; the impacts on the people and places appear to be at varying levels. Against these backdrops, this chapter attempts to analyse accessibility as a measure of marginality and to explore the factors of differential accessibility levels among the people and places in the Mid-Marsyāngdi River Basin of Lamjung district. It represents the western hills of Nepal (Fig. 17.1).

17.2 Data and Methods 17.2.1 The Study Area: The Mid-Marsyāngdi River Basin The study area of the Mid-Marsyāngdi River Basin (MMRB), including its 12 village administrative areas, known as ‘Village Development Committee’ (VDC) is the largest among several other river basins (such as the Chepe, the Rudi, the Khudi, the Dordi, the Mādi, the Pāudi, etc.) in Lamjung district. The basin has a total area of 129  km2, sharing 7.6% of the district area (1692  km2). The basi’s terrains are composed of lowlands (about 30%), surrounded by the hills and mountains (about 70%). The elevations range from 600 to 2000 masl. Agricultural land including both Khet (lowland irrigated by river water where staple crops such as rice, wheat, and maize are grown) and Bāri or Pākho (sloppy terrace or dry land, where crops such

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as millet, buckwheat, etc. are grown) accounted for 60%, forests cover 29%, and the remaining surfaces are water bodies, settlements, roads and trails, etc. The Marsyāngdi is the largest perennial river coming from the northern Himalayas. It drains the major part of the district and flows to the south-east to become one of the seven tributaries of the Gandaki River system of western Nepal. The total population of the basin was 50,978 in 2011 and accounted for 30.4% of the district population of 167,724 (CBS 2012). At the district level, the population in Lamjung district had grown till 2001 and then declined in 2011.2 Before 2011, the growth of population in the basin was due to the construction of its first Mid-­ Marsyāngdi Hydropower Plant in 2008 that attracted employees from different parts of the country. In fact, the 2011 census mentioned for the first time non-local inhabitants of Lamjung, such as the Tarai people and others like Rai, Limbu, Sherpa, Tamang, etc., who were not listed in the 2001 population census. Altogether, the population consisted of 50 different castes and ethnics, including Gurungs, Magars, Parbates (Bahun and Chhetri), Chepāng, Kumāl, and Dalits (Kāmi, Sārki, Gandharb) as major communities. The Gurungs and Magars have a tradition to join the military services as Gurkha soldiers in foreign countries (Great Britain and India) or within the country. In recent years, the Gulf and the Asian countries (Malaysia, Korea, etc.) are emerged as new employment opportunities to the people of the basin and other parts of the country. In historic time, three major traditional highways or long distance trading routes or trails crossed Lamjung, such as: (i) north-south, (ii) westward, and (iii) eastward. The first was the route from Bhikhnāthori (India) and Nārāyanghāt in the south (the Tarai region) to Manang (the Himalayan region) and Tibet in the north. The major market towns like Bhoteodār, Faliasānghu, Besishahar, Khudi-Bhulbhule and Bahundāndā were located along it. The second led westwards to Pokhara with the market towns of Bhorletār, Nalmā, Bakhrejagat, Gāunshahar, and Baglungpāni. On the third, the major market towns developed along the traditional route from Lamjung east to Kathmandu and included Tarkughāt, Dhāmilikuwa, Chiti, Chakratirth and Bichaur. The district was connected with places outside the country only in 1986, when the construction of 134 km long Dumre-Besishahar Road was finished and opened to vehicles for the first time, but its improvement with a black top surface was completed in 1999 only (HMG, 2000). The Dumre-Besishahar-­ Manang highway is the only thoroughfare to connect the basin with other parts of the country. The basin also contains two hydropower projects of national importance, viz., the Middle Marsyāngdi (70 MW) and the Upper Marsyāngdi (50 MW), both built during the last decade.

 In 1971, the district had a population of 125,489 that increased to 145,318 in 1981. The trend of population growth continued till 2001 (total: 177,149) and declined to 167,724  in 2011. The growth rates for the district fluctuated. For instance, the annual growth rate of population 1971–1981 was 0.85%; declined to 0.06% (1991–2001); grew to 1.42% (1991–2001) and again declined by negative growth 0.55% (2001–2011). One of the reasons for this sharp decline in the growth rate might be the absent population, which was 21,161 in 2011, increased from 12,749 in 2001 (CBS, 2012). 2

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Currently, the basin is the entry gate to the Annapurna circuit trek, one of the most popular treks in the world, and attracts many foreign and domestic tourists. It offers the diverse experiences of unique villages and cultural experiences of Gurungs, Magars and Thakalis, eloquent hillside terraced fields, lush vegetation, and alpine meadows. The basi’s other popular features are the homestay facilities for tourists. There are many homestay villages including Ghalegāun around the district that offer the guests unique Gurung culture and traditional lifestyle, as well as picturesque views of the surrounding Himalayan peaks. Thus, Lamjung district has witnessed a number of development activities over the past decades and its people living in different places have experienced impacts or benefits of development work at various levels.

17.2.2 Data and Methods Local development is about improving people’s wellbeing and better living conditions across the region through providing public basic facilities such as education, health, security, communication, employment, roads, banks, etc. Their planning occurs through policy measures and programmes on of the government. For effectively delivering these facilities to the people, the system depends on the locational attributes or ‘accessible site’ of the facilities, which in turn is determined by a number of factors, such as terrain features, settlement patterns and population density, access types (roads, trails, bridges), availability and supply of facilities, structure of public organization, awareness of the people, etc. If particular communities living in the settlement, or certain parts of a region do not receive or get access to those facilities, they are ‘marginalized’. In other word, they are not being integrated in the local, regional or national development mainstreams. Given these circumstances, this chapter was primarily based on the data of a field survey carried out in 2013. A series of survey methods and tools were used. First, the basin area was delineated on the digital toposheet and all other digital data including drainage, road network and land uses were acquired from the Survey Department, the Government of Nepal (SD, 1995) and verified, and their layouts were prepared by using the ArcGIS software. Second, an observation survey was carried out by visiting all its 12 VDCs (Archalbot, Bānhhakhet, Besishahar, Bharte, Bhoteodār, Chandisthānān, Chiti, Gāunshahar, Hiletaksār, Sundarbazār, Tārkughāt, and Udipur) and their settlements, and their current conditions (sanitation, environment, roads) were recorded. This included the number and levels of the facilities, such as post offices, primary, lower secondary and secondary schools, extension services of agriculture and the veterinary, police posts, co-operatives, banks, road-­ heads, and market towns located in these VDCs. GIS technology has been used to prepare layouts to portray the physical, social and infrastructure conditions. Four basic facilities (schools, healthcare service, drinking water and sanitation, and road network) were considered the key infrastructure for accessibility. The public agencies are considered responsible for provision of the facilities. A semi-structured

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questionnaire was administered to the representatives of public offices of those facilities and infrastructure at district level, and interviews were conducted to acquire information on their status, service delivery systems, problems and prospects. The consultation meeting with the representatives of district level public offices and non-government and community organizations was held at the headquarters in Besishahar, which allowed to acquire information about accessibility status, delivery systems, challenges and problems, and measures to be taken. Formal discussions were held with the leaders of major political parties, social workers, teachers and elderly people based in the district headquarters, and they provided information on local development plans, problems and future plans for improving service delivery systems.

17.2.3 Methods of Analysis Marginalization occurs due to spatial and social discrimination. Here, spatial discrimination is used to refer to an inequitable provision of facilities to different human settlements in a region without assessing their roles and importance, and social discrimination is due to unfair practices and traditions against poor, lower castes, and ethnic groups in accessing to public resources, facilities, and organizations. The accessibility and features of facilities for human settlements are basic elements in any region. Settlements are broadly of two types. The first are service centres with services and facilities, the second the dependent settlements, whose inhabitants travel to the service centres in order to obtain facilities. The relationship between these two types of settlement concerning the accessibility of the facility is dependent on various factors, such as terrain, roads and transports, number and types of facilities, population distribution, and so on. This concept, originally developed by Christaller (1966), has been adopted in the analysis of facility accessibility. Level and type of facilities depend on the prevailing socioeconomic conditions of the local region. Here in this study, ten types of facilities were considered: banks, clinics, cooperatives, extension services−agriculture and veterinary, healthcare services, high schools, lower secondary schools, police posts, post offices and road link for the 12 VDCs. The VDCs with their headquarters were assumed to act as service centres. Their relative importance has been analysed in terms of accessibility of those facilities. Two simple but basic types of technique have been used to assess the facility accessibility. One is the Scalogram technique, which simply uses the logic of 1 and 0 for presence and absence of given facilities in the VDCs (Pradhan, 2004). An index has been built based on presence and absence of the type of facilities with respect to the total (10) facilities for each VDC. This was used for finding gaps in the offer of the facilities among the VDCs. Another is the density analysis of the four key facilities mentioned above. This technique has been used to measure the

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facilities in terms of area and population (CBS 2017). It assumes that the larger the area and population of the VDC, the greater would be the provision of the given services and vice versa. Conversely, if such conditions do not exist, the reverse would be the result, i.e., the accessibility would be poor in the case of larger VDCs. This was carried out at two levels: one at the VDC level of MMRB and another at the people (community) level. A comparative analysis of the facility accessibility was performed between the MMRB VDCs and the district as a whole. As the identification of the service centres and their supply of basic facilities in the district are the responsibilities of the local government, an analysis of the governance system with regard to the delivery of the facilities has been undertaken in terms of public policy and programmes. The delivery of the facilities by the private sector through the market towns as complementary to the public sector has been omitted in the analysis and no information was collected. The analysis focused on the provision of facilities by the local (district) government and their access by the people.

17.3 Findings and Analysis 17.3.1 Status of Available Public Facilities at the District Level Administratively, Lamjung district was divided into 61 VDCs before 2015.3 There district counted 42 district level public facility offices all located at the Besishahar headquarters. They represented most of the nationally defined facility sectors and ranged from general administration, security, social services to development activities.4 In addition, the district headquarters also comprised 18 public and private financial organizations, 209 private commercial enterprises (production based 26; agriculture and forestry based 71; tourism based 39; service based 58 and construction based 15), 8 healthcare services (public and private), and 311 associations (political, social, community etc. and clubs). The services at village (VDCs) level were few and basic such as administration, education, health, communication, revenue, etc. The policy of service centre approach initiated by the government in 1985 during the seventh national periodic plan aimed at facilitating access to people with 2–3 h travel time between their residential villages and the location of basic facilities

 According to the constitution of 2015, the country has been divided into seven provinces and likewise, the local government units lying in the districts have also been changed and formed into rural municipality and urban municipality. Accordingly, Lamjung district consisted of four urban municipalities (Besishahar, Madhyanepāl, Rāinās and Sundarbazār) and four rural municipalities (Dordi, Dudhapokhari, Kabaholāsothār and Marsyāngdi) after that year. 4  They included services related to security, administration, economy, infrastructure, environment conservation, health and education, development projects, and others. 3

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(HMG, 1985). Accordingly, Lamjung district was divided into 11 sub-district units (Fig. 17.2), known as ‘Ilākās’ together with a centre identified for each Ilākā. Each service centre was to be equipped with 6–8 types of basic facilities such as health, sanitation, primary education, rural transport, drinking water, security, communication, extension service, market centre, etc. However, the service centre approach failed the implementation by the government was insufficient and, in most cases, the political intervention in the selection of service centres ignored the necessary technical criteria (Pradhan & Pradhan, 1994).

Fig. 17.2  Location of service centres in Lamjung district. (Source: HMG 1989, Central Service Map. Suspension Bridge Division, Kathmandu)

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17.3.2 VDC Level Facilities/Services in MMRB The location of facilities is determined by the number of people to be served and the distance they have to cover to reach them. The goal is to serve a maximum of people at minimum distance. Table 17.1 depicts ten selected facilities, which is common in other rural areas of Nepal as well. Not all villages in the study region are equally equipped. The villages of the district are on average equipped with two-thirds (66%) of the ten facilities chosen. Five VDCs (Besishahar, Bhoteodār, Chiti, Sundarbazār, and Tārkughāt) had more than this figure with Besishahar on top. This is due to its role as district headquarters where most of the district level facilities including the ten types are located. Of the remaining seven VDCs with poorer levels of accessibility, Bānhhakhet and Hiletaksār are in the worst position and therefore the most marginalised villages. We notice that only cooperative and healthcare service were available in all 12 VDCs. Also, in all 12 VDCs telephone, electricity, and primary schools are available (not included in Table 17.1). The disparity in the provision of basic facilities to the VDCs is huge. In terms of area served by each of the four facilities (Table  17.2), the study region’s VDCs as a whole fare significantly better than other VDCs of the entire district. Yet, even the people within the basin had to travel on average almost 12 km to the nearest health service, which is even greater for those VDCs without healthcare facility.

Table 17.1  Presence and absence of selected 10 facilities by VDC in MMRB VDCs Archalbot Bānhhakhet Besishahar Bharte Bhoteodār Chandisthān Chiti Gāunshahar Hiletaksār Sundarbazār Tārkughāt Udipur Total/average

BK 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 4

CL 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 7

CO 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12

ES 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 3

HS 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 12

SS 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 8

LS 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 5

SP 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 6

PO 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 11

RH 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11

Total 5 4 10 5 9 6 9 5 4 9 8 5

Index (Sn/N) 0.50 0.40 1.00 0.50 0.90 0.60 0.90 0.50 0.40 0.90 0.80 0.50 0.66

Source: DDC Lamjung (2008) Notes: BK bank, CL clinic, CO co-operative, ES extension service, HS healthcare service, SS secondary (high) school, LS lower secondary school, SP security (police) post, PO post office, and RH road head. 1 = presence of facility; 0 = absence of facility; Sn/N, where n = total of presence of facilities for a particular VDC; and N = total types of facilities considered here

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Table 17.2  Comparison of facilities accessibility between district and study region Area (km2)/ service Services District (without MMRB) MMRB District MMRB School units 316 87 4.9 1.5 Water supply (%) 23,105 13,927 – – Road length (km) 75.32 31.52 20.8 4.1 Healthcare units 54 11 28.9 11.7 Area km2 1563 129 Population 116,748 50,978

Population/ service District MMRB 369.5 586.0 86.4 90.9 1550.0 1617.3 2162.0 4634.4

Source: DDC Lamjung (2008) Note: Water supply at household level

There appears to be a much higher population5 pressure on three of the facilities (except drinking water) in the study region than in other parts of the district (Table 17.2). In healthcare, for instance, one unit had to serve over 4600 persons in the study region, a very poor situation, compared to other areas of the district where it was less than half of that density. Only in water supply, household coverage was much better for the basin than that for the other areas of the district. All households of the study region had received access to the public taps for drinking water, and the households of nine VDCs (apart from Archalbot, Bharte and Hiletaksār) also private taps at their disposal. There was a natural spring water source for the households of Bhoteodār, only. The relatively poor accessibility condition in the study region was mainly due to the high density of population, which was 395 persons/km2. So, the people of those VDCs without healthcare facility had to travel to other VDCs having healthcare facility. Of all, the school facility with an average serving area of 1.5 km2 seems to be the most accessible. The presence of roads is the most important factor to facilitate access to the various facilities. In the basin, the main road lies on the western side of the Marsyāngdi River and thus can be used by those villages lying along it, whereas villages on the other (eastern) side cannot use it unless there is a bridge (Fig. 17.3). Indeed, only a single narrow bridge connects the six villages on the eastern side of the river. Two largest VDCs—Bānhhakhet and Chiti—have no road link. Again, the mere existence of a road makes little sense without public transport. This applies to most roads, except for the main thoroughfare connecting Besishahar with major places to the north and the south, where public transport service was available. A trail appears to be the only option available for on-foot traveler to connect to the road head points, or to the facilities’ locations. However, the practice in Nepal is that these trails are often used as reference or base for future road planning and construction. Also, summer monsoon rainfall is a crucial factor. During this season, most of the rivers and local streams (or Khahare) get often flooded, making it difficult for the villagers travel to the service centres (Fig. 17.3). Table 17.3 shows the

 The picture would be better if we knew how many children of the VDCs frequent schools.

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Fig. 17.3  Road and drainage networks in the MMRB. (Source: Survey Department 1996, Toposheets Map of Nepal, Kathmandu, updated 2016)

distribution of facilities such as health, school, road and main trail, and post office with respect to area, population size, and settlement unit by VDC of the basin. According to this table, there is more or less a similar accessibility pattern between post office and health care facility, as each VDC, except one or two, has got one of these public services. Of the study region’s 12 VDCs, most had a healthcare and post office, while six VDCs had no road link. In terms of school, each VDC had a primary, or a lower secondary, or a secondary school, and a few had all three or two schools, signifying a relatively better facility in education (Table 17.3). There appears to be some positive relationship between the area size and the number of schools by VDC in the study region, i.e., higher size of VDC area having larger number of schools. But in the case of population size, no such straight relationship can be found with the number of schools. This means no VDC with a bigger population had proportionally a larger number of schools.

17.3.3 Service Accessibility by Castes/Ethnic Groups in MMRB At the community level, the key informant survey showed that two social groups, viz. the Parbates and the Janajātis (higher castes) had better access to all five key facilities than the Dalits, the lower castes (Table 17.4).

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Table 17.3  Distribution of selected key facilities by VDC in MMRB VDC name Archalbot Bānhhakhet Besishahar Bharte Bhoteodār Chandisthān Chiti Gāunshahar Hiletaksār Sundarbazār Tārkughāt Udipur Total

Area (km2) 6.6 25.67 6.47 8.89 7.54 4.24 15.68 19.27 8.81 7.03 8.69 10.1 129

Population 1427 2528 13,728 1991 6721 1685 4593 5877 1493 5970 2572 2393 50,978

Settlementa unit 17 24 22 19 19 6 30 47 18 18 17 14 251

Selected public facilities HC SC PO RD 1 3 1 0 1 12 1 0 1 6 1 2.45 1 9 1 0 0 8 1 7.09 1 3 0 4.25 1 9 1 0 1 8 1 4.61 1 3 1 0 1 7 1 8.67 1 15 0 0 1 4 1 4.44 11 87 10 31.52

MT 8.13 15.53 4.09 12.96 6.08 0 29.97 23.04 10.65 2.71 10.40 5.73 129.29

Source: DDC Lamjung (2008); CBS (2017) Notes: HC Healthcare unit, SC School unit, PO Post office, RD Road length (km), MT Main trail (km) a Settlement unit refers to settlement cluster, and its size varies in terms of housing units Table 17.4  Facility accessibility by caste/ethnic groups Castes/ethnicities Parbates Janajātis Dalits

Access to facilities (percentage) Health School Electricity 43.4 36.0 50 42.4 36.0 39 14.2 28.0 9

Telephone 31.0 37.8 1.8

Water supply 14.7 20.9 5.7

Source: Field survey (2013)

Employment and income are the key factors for empowering the people, particularly the vulnerable or poor communities, for which education and skill training are important. The information obtained from the interviews with the key informants as shown in Table 17.5 indicates that the employment level of the Dalits was very low compared to the Parbates and the Janajātis. Due to low level of school educational attainment,6 they could find little employment in the selected public sector organizations. Despite the sharing of higher attainment of the Janajātis in school education, as of the Parbates, their employment share in the selected organizations was quite low with less than one-fourth of the total employments, while that of the Parbates was nearly 72% (Table 17.5). The Janajātis do not necessarily need to be employed in the region because of other employment opportunities. Traditionally, particularly since World War I, they

 At the national level, the literacy rate of the Hill Dalits was 25% in 2011, which was quite low as compared to the national literacy rate at 67% (CBS, 2012). 6

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266 Table 17.5  Employment pattern among castes/ethnics of MMRB in selected key sectors Castes/ ethnicities Parbates Janajātis Dalits Others

Population sharing (%) 47.7 35.8 14.8 1.7

Proportion of the total by sector in percentage Healthcare School School Political service management teacher partiesa 78.6 64.0 78.0 65.7 21.4 28.0 19.0 26.7 0.0 8.0 3.0 7.6 – – – –

Average 71.56 23.78 4.65 –

Source: Field survey (2013) Note: Parbates = Bāhun, Chhetri, etc. a There were three major political parties, such as Congress-1 & Two Communist Parties

were recruited as Gurkha Soldier, popularly known as ‘Lāhure’ in the British army7 (Caplan 2003; Gurung, 2011). Obviously, the low educational attainment by the Dalits translates into having the lowest level of employment, below 5% (Table 17.5). The Parbates dominate employment in all sectors, while the Dalits had the least opportunities in the public sector and in political parties. However, the situation of elected representatives has changed dramatically during the past two decades, and social discrimination has diminished. The survey showed that the number of elected representatives among the Parbates had declined from 59 in 1992 to 31 in 2017, while the Janajātis representatives increased from 36 to 48, those of the Dalits from 5 in 1992 to 20 in 2017.

17.4 Discussions and Conclusions Providing basic facilities across rural regions is a crucial challenge to development in Nepal. It is widely accepted that rural people feel relieved when obtaining services, if the location of basic services is close to their dwellings, and if the provision of basic facilities concerns particularly the poor or disadvantaged. Accessibility is a precondition for inclusiveness, improved and participatory development, as well as an instrument of a good governance system (Pradhan, 2004; Baral, 2009). The provision of a good road network is a basic factor to ease the movement of the people and for efficient delivery of basic services. Similar to other hill districts of Nepal, access to the facilities in Lamjung and its Mid-Marsyāngdi basin has varied remarkably between different groups of people, as well as between places, due mainly to the rugged mountain terrain and the lack of road access (Pradhan, 2007; Baral, 2009). Another factor is the drainage system

 It refers to the person who serves in foreign army. In the war of 1814–16, Nepalis fought the East India Company and the British were impressed by the gallantry of the defenders. After the Sugauli Treaty in 1816 (Shrestha, 2013) they started recruiting Nepali soldiers for the British Army. There was a popular song sang by locals in Lamjung, “Bāchchhi pāyoo jangal ko bāgh lāi, thito lagyo Germanko dhāwā lāi”—young calf for wild cats, you men for the German war. 7

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in the hills and mountains. Particularly during the rainy seasons, in most of the rivers the water level often rises; the resulting floods are obstacles to travelling for most people as there are no bridges across the rivers and streams. Besides, since not all service centres at VDC level have all basic facilities, the people of those VDCs lacking certain facilities have to travel several hours or days to visit the headquarters or service centres where they are located. This obviously enhances the disparity in accessibility among places and people. The caste system, which has prevailed as a tradition in Nepal for long, is the main cause of discrimination and marginalization between the communities. The system has divided the people into two groups—touchable or upper castes and untouchables or lower castes (such as tailoring, blacksmith, leather-smith, etc. who are traditional skill based craftsmen/entrepreneurs). The touchable isolate or circumvent the untouchables by preventing access to the common resources, such as fetching water from public taps or springs, entering temples, participating in feasts, etc (Subba et al., 2014). This is a social marginalization. According to Amartya Sen, a group which is excluded from social relations will suffer from limited living opportunities and capacity deprivation which prevents people from appearing in public without feeling shame or unable to interact freely with others (Sen, 2000, 2005). In Nepal, the government adopted the ‘Naya Muluki Ain’ (Country Code Act) in 1963 against caste-based discriminatory practices and untouchability and declared that everyone was equal before the law (Lamsal, 2012). However, the inhuman discriminatory practices continue, due to a weak implementation of the act (Bhattachan, 2008). For this reason, unemployed Dalits around the country including the Mid-Marsyāngdi basin tend to go abroad for employment, causing a serious problem of declining of the Dalit youths. As a result, thousands of hectares of agricultural land in the country have now been left fallow or uncultivated, due to shortage of labour. The irony is that the country, once self-sufficient in food production, now spends billions for importing food. The service centre approach as a spatial decentralized policy adopted by the government in the 1980s had aimed at integrating local service centres and their rural hinterlands, improving their capacity to stimulate rural economies and providing increased access for rural population to the service centres based facilities (HMG, 1985). According to this policy, the technical criteria were made to determine the feasible sites or settlements to establish at least nine service centres in each district. But in most cases, those technical criteria were ignored during the implementation process. For instance, out of 11 service centres in Lamjung District (see Fig. 17.2), three (Dhamikuwa, Karāputār, and Neta) could not function properly for the delivery of the services, because they were selected on account of a political decision, ignoring the technical criteria. Their location was indeed far from the surrounding villages, and their inhabitants spent a lot of time and money to visit those centres (Baral, 2018). The four centres of Besishahar, Chiti, Khudi, and Sundarbazār function well as market towns in delivering the services, due to their favourable location. Like in Lamjung, the selection of the service centres in several other districts has often ignored some of the technical criteria such as existing market towns as potential service centres in terms of the functional linkage system, population

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size, locational attributes, marketing activities, seat of the traditional ruler of the community or marketing or both (Gurung & Roy, 1987; Shrestha, 1987; Pradhan & Routray, 1992). Some of the development policies and acts, such as service centre strategy, growth pole, integrated rural development, basic needs approach, district decentralized act, country code act were relevant to address the issues such as balance spatial distribution, minimizing social discrimination, rational distribution of resources and development works, etc. in the country. However, they all were futile. Some of the major weaknesses (among many) included lack of commitment and sincerity of the government to implement them (Shrestha, 1987; Pradhan, 1982). We must therefore think of finding ways about how the government system can be made more professional and committed to implement the policies formulated against caste discrimination or unfair or unequal treatment between people and places in the country.

References Baral, B.  K. (2009). Role of service centers in  local development in Lamjung district, Nepal. Nepalese Journal of Development and Rural Studies, 6(1), 1–10. Baral, B. K. (2018). People’s Access to Local Development Facilities in the Mid-Marsyāngdi River Basin, Lamjung District, Nepal. Unpublished PhD Dissertation, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, Tribhuvan University. Bhattachan, K.  B. (2008). Background Paper on Dalit Issues. The Dalits of Nepal and New Constitution: A Resource on the Situation of Dalits in Nepal, their Demands and the Implications for a New Constitution. United Nations Development. Blaikie, P., Cameron, J., Feldman, D., Fournier, A., & Seddon, D. (1976). The Effects of Roads in West-Central Nepal (3 Vols). Report Submitted to the Ministry of Overseas Development (U.K.). Overseas Development Group, University of East Anglia. Caplan, L. (2003). Warrior Gentlemen, ‘Gurkhas’ in the Western Imagination. Himal Books. CBS. (2012). Population Monograph of Nepal (Vols. I and II). Central Bureau of Statistics. CBS. (2017). District Profile of Lamjung. Central Bureau of Statistics. Christaller, W. (1966). Central Places in Southern Germany. Prentice-Hall. DDC Lamjung. (2008). Annual District Development Plan. District Development Committee. DOLIDAR. (2011). National Plan for Rural Road Maintenance. Department of Local Infrastructure Development and Agricultural Roads, Government of Nepal. Gurung, H. B. (1971). Rationale for hill areas development. Nepal Industrial Digest, 17–24. Gurung, S. (2011). British Gurkha recruitment and higher education of Gurung young men. Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology, 5, 143–170. Gurung, S. B., & Roy, P. (1987). Decentralization in Nepal. Orient Longman. Hagen, T. (1971). Nepal: The Kingdom in the Himalayas. Oxford & IBH Publishing. Haimendorf, C. V. F. (1971). Himalayan Traders: Life in the Highland Nepal. Bharat Bharati. HMG. (1985). The Seventh Plan (1985–1990). National Planning Commission, HMG. HMG. (1989). Central Service Map. Suspension Bridge Division. HMG. (2000). Effectiveness of Investment in Dumre-Besishahar Road. National Planning Commission, His Majesty’s Government. Lamsal, H. B. (2012, December). Role of Dalit civil society against untouchability: Challenges and prospects. Nepal Journal of Social Science and Public, 2(1), 75–84. Messerschmidt, D.  A. (1980). Gateway-hinter relations in changing Nepal. Contributions to Nepalese Studies, 8(1), 21–39.

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Pant, Y. P. (1962). Nepal-China trade relations. The Economic Weekly. April 14, pp. 621–624. Pradhan, B. B. (1982). Rural Development in Nepal: Problems and Prospects. A Project Report. Ministry of Panchayat and Local Development/UNDP. Pradhan, P. K. (2004). Rural Urban Relations with Particular Reference to Nepal. Rural Urban Partnership Programme/United Nations Development Programme. Pradhan, P. K. (2007, January–June). Analysis of marginal and remote areas of Nepal. Nepalese Journal of Development and Rural Studies., 4(1). Pradhan, P. K., & Pradhan, P. S. (1994). Spatial Analysis of Rural Service Delivery System (Lalitpur District). MENRIS Case Study Series, No.2: Application of GIS to rural development planning in Nepal, MENRIS/ICIMOD. Pradhan, P.  K., & Routray, J.  K. (1992). Market Center and Rural Development in Chitwan District, Nepal. Asian Institute of Technology. Regmi, M. C. (1971). A Study in Nepali Economic History (1768–1846). Manjusri Publishing House. Regmi, M. C. (1988). An Economic History of Nepal: 1846–1901. Nath Publishing House. Schroeder M.  C. W., & Sisler, D.  G. (1980). The Impact of the Sunauli-Pokhara Highway on the Regional Income and Agricultural Production of Pokhara Valley, Nepal. Department of Agricultural Economics, Occasional Papers No. 32. Cornell University. SD. (1995). Toposheet of Nepal. Survey Department. Sen, A. (2000). Social Exclusion: Concept, Application, and Scrutiny. Asian Development Bank. Sen, A. (2005). Human rights and capabilities. Journal of Human Development, 6(2), 151–166. Shrestha, C. B. (1987). Structure of rural market centres in the Kathmandu Valley. The Journal of Development and Administrative Studies, 9(1), 1–12. Shrestha, C. B. (1973–74). The system of central place in the Arniko Rajmarg area of Nepal. The Himalayan Review, 5-6, 19–39. Shrestha, B. N. (2013). Demarcation of the international boundaries of Nepal. In H. Srebro (Ed.), International boundary making (pp. 149–180). International Federation of Surveyors (FIG). Subba, C., Pyakuryal, B., Bastola, T. S., Subba, M. K., Raut, N., & Karki, K. (2014). A Study on Social Status of Indigenous Peoples in Nepal. LAHURNIP.

Chapter 18

Cohesion Policy in the Struggle Against the Marginalization of the Inner Peripheries: Polish Experience and Recommendations Anna Dubownik, Paweł Churski, Czesław Adamiak, and Barbara Szyda

18.1 Introduction Cohesion policy continues to be the second policy of the European Union (EU) as far as expenditures are concerned. Its significance, however, is changing alongside the ever-stronger impact of globalisation and other contemporary socio-economic megatrends (Bakas, 2009; Naisbitt & Naisbitt, 2018). The impact of those global phenomena modifies the mechanisms and effects of the operating growth factors, which requires rethinking and changes in their operational use (Churski et al., 2018, 2020). It does not alter the main objective of the cohesion policy: attempts at convergence of development and reduction of spatial disparities to a level low enough to be socially accepted (Faludi, 2006; Molle, 2007). However, it increases the scale of challenges faced by this policy in the context of its effective impact on the development of economically weaker areas. In this context particularly interesting are permanently marginalized areas. In the literature on the subject, they are referred to as inner peripheries (Czapiewski & Janc, 2009; Pérez-Soba et al., 2013; Copus et al., 2017), and they do not necessarily A. Dubownik (*) Faculty of Socio-Economic Geography and Spatial Management, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland Faculty of Earth Sciences and Spatial Management, Nicolaus Copernicus University, Toruń, Poland P. Churski Faculty of Socio-Economic Geography and Spatial Management, Adam Mickiewicz University, Poznań, Poland C. Adamiak · B. Szyda Faculty of Earth Sciences and Spatial Management, Nicolaus Copernicus University, Toruń, Poland © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 P. K. Pradhan, W. Leimgruber (eds.), Nature, Society, and Marginality, Perspectives on Geographical Marginality 8, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-21325-0_18

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need to represent peripheries defined in terms of physical distance. The existence of inner peripheries results from combinations of undesirable processes, features and evolutionary dynamics which lead to limiting their developmental potential (ESPON, 2017). Inner peripheries are regularly depopulating, which results in unfavourable demographic trends; they also stand out for their limited infrastructure resources and poor accessibility of public services (Kluza, 2020). The processes of marginalization, identified in inner peripheries, are conditioned predominantly by their limited relations with their surrounding areas. These areas are not included in external networks of relations which are at the basis of producing synergy effects and reinforcing the growth process, typical for core areas. They are also characterized by internal deficits related to the quality of the components of place-based capital which, therefore, reflects a low level of internal networking. As a result, it does not provide an attractive environment for business activity. The gap between European inner peripheries and the most developed areas is still maintained, or even growing (Fiaschi et al., 2018). In light of the above, it is necessary to analyse and assess the foregoing effects of intervention within the cohesion policy. From among all EU member states, Poland remains the biggest beneficiary of European cohesion policy. Being the largest member state in the group of the so-­ called ‘new member states’, and at the same time featuring strong regional diversification  – both inter- and intra-regional  – it constitutes a peculiar laboratory for testing the cohesion policy (Rudnicki et al., 2019). The aim of this chapter is to present Polish experiences related to the use of intervention measures under the cohesion policy as a tool to counteract marginalization processes of the inner peripheries. The study covers the area of Poland, accounting for its subregional structure (NUTS 3), in the period of 2007–2013/15, which corresponded to the first full European budget in which Poland participated as an EU member state. This study, besides including the cohesion policy funds, analyses also the funds obtained by Polish regions within the Common Agricultural Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy. Although reaching territorial cohesion was not the principal aim of implementation of these programmes, it was acknowledged that the amount of funds granted as support for agricultural holdings and other institutions, on the one hand, and the specific territorial dimension of their spending in rural areas, on the other, may have a substantial impact on the economies of the inner peripheries and the reduction of territorial disproportions in development. The research procedure consisted of the following stages. The first step was to present the transformations of the Polish regional policy, with special emphasis on the effects of the Polish integration with the EU on programming and implementing these public intervention measures. The subsequent step focused on the presentation of objectives and results of the cohesion policy intervention in Poland within the EU budget framework of 2007–2013; the analysis involved the description of objectives and scopes of particular aid programmes and the examination of the impact of funds gained within these programmes on economic growth and on the increase of the subregions’ inhabitants prosperity. Further, special attention was devoted to the contrast between the largest cities (regional centres, which in the case of Poland are the poles of development in the network-based, polycentric system of settlement) and

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the subregional units representing the inner peripheries. To identify the impact of the cohesion policy on the processes of economic growth concentration and diffusion, both quantitative data and opinions derived from direct interviews were used. The whole analysis was summarised with a description of marginalization-related challenges to the cohesion policy, including EU recommendations formulated within this scope, on the one hand, and Polish practices, on the other. The results obtained enabled us to indicate certain regularities observed in Poland pertaining to the objectives and outcomes of the intervention of the European cohesion policy in the face of a growing impact of globalisation.

18.2 Impact of European Cohesion Policy on the Formation of the Polish Model of Development Policy Current economic disparities between regions of Poland have been evolving since the era of industrialisation as a result of the unequal location of urban centres, natural resources, and the frequent changes of political borders. Although the origins of the practical use of control over regional development to prevent spontaneous consequences of socio-economic development date back to the beginning of the twentieth century, in the case of Poland and other post-socialist countries, its application has a much shorter history. In the period after World War II, due to those countries lying within the Soviet area of influence, in the conditions of the socialist political system and centrally planned economy, regional policy was extremely flawed. It was limited to the preparation and implementation of 5- and 6-year plans by the Communist party which affected decisions on the location of central investment and the redistribution of state budget funds to regional bodies and local party committees vested with authoritarian power. As an effect, pre-communist inter-regional and intra-regional disparities in the location of industry and infrastructure were reproduced. The political and economic transformation, initiated in 1989, triggered off extensive changes. A decision was made not to implement any regional policy actions, which was influenced by three factors. Firstly, it had been assumed that the market mechanism would be an optimal economic regulator, also applicable to spatial management. Secondly, there had been concerns that the principles and the set of instruments of regional policy, through the use of strategy and programme documents, would be deemed by society as a manifestation of the continuation of central planning. Thirdly, the dramatic condition of the state budget had not allowed to reserve special funds dedicated to development policy and to bridging the gaps in spatial development. Consequently, in the period of 1990–1995 the gaps widened, both at the inter- and the intra-regional levels, trapping several regions and sub-regional units in the vicious circle of unemployment, negative demographic processes and low competitivity. The range of the disparities increased during the negotiations on the membership of Poland in the EU. As a consequence, work on the objectives of

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the Polish regional policy was initiated. It should be highlighted that, from the very beginning, the process of constructing and transforming the regional policy model was substantially determined by the relations between Poland and the EU as well as by the impact of European cohesion policy, both indirectly and directly. The process can be systematised and presented in three stages: • The pre-accession period – 1999 to 2004 – was connected with the implementation of the administrative and territorial state reform (1999) and the first  – in post-war Poland – act of law on the conditions for supporting regional development (2000). It provided the basis for regional self-government, empowered with their own competences and budget, ready to accept the challenges associated with the implementation of intraregional policy. Moreover, a model of regional policy relying on good practices from France was introduced to public activities. However, its proper implementation was hampered by serious financial and political barriers, resulting in far-reaching distortions. • The period of the first budget perspective following the accession  – 2004 to 2006  – connected with the complete adaptation of Polish regional policy to European standards, guaranteed through the enactment of new regulations (2004 and 2006). Amendments were also made later in the context of very intensive political competition, and the distribution of European funds was in many cases based on non-substantive criteria. The overarching aim of the changes introduced then was to create possibilities to secure the access to the structural funds and to the Cohesion Fund. Unfortunately, it resulted in the formation of the idiosyncratic ‘absorption maximisation culture’ focusing on the acquisition of the highest possible value of resources, rather than on the selection of the best method of their use. • The period of constructing a new model of the Polish regional policy and the full-fledged participation in the EU budget – 2007 to 2013 – basing on the new law on the rules of pursuing development policy (2006).1 In this time specific-­ focus, measures were undertaken to organize the national system of programming and implementation of development measures. Strategy and programme papers gained clear structure at national, regional and local levels.2 As a result, the objectives and commitments of the state regional policy were unambiguously separated from the process of absorption of funds derived from the European cohesion policy, thus the acquisition of these funds was treated as an instrument for the implementation of national development priorities rather than as a goal in itself.

 The Act of 6 December 2006 on the rules of pursuing development policy (Journal of Laws 227/2006, item 1658) is still valid as an act of law regulating the method for programming and implementing intervention measures within regional policy in Poland. However, since its effective date it has already been amended 19 times, which proves the extreme instability of legal regulations – a situation which considerably decreases its effectiveness. 2  It has been subject to updates since 2015 due to the change of governments. Remarkably, as a result of this process documents are adjusted only, rather than being structurally changed. 1

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Fig. 18.1  Changes in the amounts and structure of the EU regional policy funds allocated in Poland in the period of 1990–2020 (value of the average annual allocation at the national level). (Source: Own work based on unpublished data by the European Commission)

During the whole analysed period, Poland was systematically increasing its ratio of absorption of the EU funds dedicated to cohesion policy (Fig. 18.1), becoming the largest beneficiary from among the 28 Member States in the currently running perspective of 2014–2020. Such a dynamically rising allocation of funds, however, did not lead to the convergence of development in the inter-regional structure. The development gap measured by the participation rate of the five economically strongest and five economically weakest Polish voivodships in the gross domestic product has not narrowed. On the contrary, it is widening: the Gini index of GDP concentration in voivodships rose from 13.1% to 14.8% in the period of 2006–2015 (Dubownik et al., 2019). It proves the need to focus the intervention measures of Polish regional policy on reducing the scale of disparities in spatial development. So far, they have been completely ineffective or unsatisfactory in matters discussed here. The reduction of regional inequalities is thus invariably the overarching objective of the intervention measures within Polish regional policy.

18.3 Objectives and Outcomes of Cohesion Policy Intervention in Poland The Polish accession to the EU was a breakthrough in Poland’s economic development due to stronger regional financial capital, gained thanks to the access to a wide array of non-refundable subsidies which were available within the European cohesion policy, the Common Agricultural Policy, and the Common Fisheries Policy. The funds which could be obtained within individual policies differed and were

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dedicated to various groups of beneficiaries. EU programme funds constituted an element of the capital for improving the financial standing of regions, but they also stimulated growth in the significance of other factors through raising human and social capital as well as physical capital, at the same time fostering innovativeness in regions (Churski, 2008). Access to European cohesion policy intervention measures in the period 2007–2013 was based on the national strategy document ‘National Strategic Reference Framework’ (NSRF), also known as the ‘National Cohesion Strategy’ (NCS). It stated that the main priority in the implementation of European funds, in the case of intervention measures under the cohesion policy, was to create conditions for growth in competitiveness of the Polish economy relying on knowledge and entrepreneurship, guaranteeing higher employment and improved social, economic and spatial cohesion (Narodowe Strategiczne..., 2007).3 The fulfilment of this objective was primarily connected with the delivery of funds within 16 regional operational programmes (ROP), elaborated at the regional level by voivodship authorities, and within four national operational programmes which were managed centrally (Fig. 18.2).4

Fig. 18.2  Structure of funds delivered within particular EU fund programmes in Poland in the period of 2007–2013. (Source: Own elaboration, based on data by SIMIK National Information System, Agency for Restructuring and Modernisation of Agriculture (ARMA) and Local Data Bank of Central Statistical Office)  According to the Legislative Package of 2007–2013 and the Community Strategic Guidelines included therein, each member state was to prepare a national strategy paper (NSRD) setting forth the established method to satisfy the development goals with due consideration of the European Union’s priorities and with the support from the Community budget. 4  The number and focus of the operational programmes dedicated to the fulfilment of the national strategy paper (NSRD) was left at each country’s discretion. 3

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The Infrastructure and Environment Operational Programme was the national programme with the biggest budget. Its aim was to improve the investment attractiveness of Poland and its regions through developing technical infrastructure together with enhancing environment and health, maintaining cultural identity, and developing territorial cohesion (Program Operacyjny Infrastruktura i Środowisko 2007–2013, 2007). Second in size, the Innovative Economy Operational Programme, was aimed to provide financial support to create proper development conditions for innovative enterprises, particularly those launching new products with the use of modern technologies and in cooperation with the scientific community (Program Operacyjny Innowacyjna Gospodarka, 2007). The Human Capital Operational Programme was designed to financially support the development of human resources. The funds from that programme were usually allocated to the so-called ‘soft projects’ aimed at a more comprehensive use of the potential in human resources – both in the individual and the social dimension. The aim of the programme was to increase the level of employment, education, adaptive potential of enterprises and their workers and to prevent social exclusion, thus to create social cohesion (Program Operacyjny Kapitał Ludzki, 2007). The Development of the Eastern Poland Operational Programme was supposed to increase the pace of socio-economic growth in Eastern Poland in compliance with the principle of sustainable development (Program Rozwój Polski Wschodniej 2007–2013, 2006). It was implemented pursuant to the decision by the European Council, made upon the Polish government’s request, in December 2005 on awarding special funds for the development of five EU regions with the lowest GDP per capita. The Common Agricultural Policy was another EU policy, important from the point of view of Polish beneficiaries, in the period of 2007–2013. It was financed from the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) and the system of direct payments. These funds were to support multi-functional and sustainable development of agriculture and rural areas, both through the system of direct payments and subsidies from the 2007–2013 Rural Development Programme (Program Rozwoju Obszarów Wiejskich, 2007). The EU intervention measures in the period of 2007–2013  in Poland focused also on fisheries. Subsidies from this programme were dedicated to fishermen, fish processing plants, fish producers and to areas dependent on fishing (Program Operacyjny Zrównoważony Rozwój Sektora Rybołówstwa…, 2008). Since the Polish accession to the EU, the interventionism which is part of European public policies has been a considerable stimulus to the regional development of Poland. Due to the need to adapt the domestic regional policy to European standards, substantial progress has been made. On an ongoing basis, improvements have been achieved in the organizational efficiency of institutions which distribute, verify and assess the impact of subsidies on regional development. Similar changes occurred in the success ratio of applications for aid measures, including municipal, suburban and rural areas. Ventures taking advantage of the possibility to apply for EU subsidies abound and their value is spatially diversified (Fig. 18.3).

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Fig. 18.3  Amount of resources spent within cohesion funds in NUTS 3 units (A) increased by RDP investment (B) and RDP investment and direct payments to farmers (C) per capita (thousand PLN). (Source: Own elaboration based on data by SIMIK National Information System, Agency for Restructuring and Modernisation of Agriculture (ARMA) and Local Data Bank of Central Statistical Office)

The absorption of such considerable amounts raises questions such as their impact on the regional economies’ and people’s prosperity, and on the regularities in subregional spatial patterns. They can be answered as follows: first, for each of the Polish subregions, the value of the regional economy was determined by the regional per capita GDP, and people’s wealth was evaluated via the index of the average monthly gross salary. In 2015, the nominal GDP per capita in the whole of Poland equaled 46,700 PLN. The highest values were found in big cities (including Warsaw, where the result is almost three times higher than the national average), and the lowest ones were typical of peripheral subregions in the east and south-east of the country (the lowest indications were at the level of 50–60% of the national average, Fig. 18.4a). In the period from 2006 to 2015, the GDP per capita in particular subregions rose by 40.6–113.8% (by 66.9% in the whole of Poland) and the pace of growth did not demonstrate any pronounced regional differences (Fig.  18.4b). The amount of the average monthly gross remuneration was 4151 PLN in 2015. The average salaries were definitely less regionally diversified than tdhe GDP: in Warsaw subregion they were at the level of 135% of the national average and in the poorest subregions they accounted for 76% (Fig. 18.4c). In the period between 2006 and 2015 remunerations in particular subregions increased by 47.5–76.5% (by 57.4% in all of Poland; Fig. 18.4d). The next step was to measure how money from particular EU funds contributed towards the economic growth of Polish regions and the increase of their inhabitants’ prosperity. A regression analysis was conducted to this end. The models included, except for the cohesion funds, resources obtained within the Common Agricultural Policy and the Common Fisheries Policy, which make up a considerable part of EU funds, especially those targeting peripheral regions. It was assumed that the impact of European funds on economic growth and inhabitants’ wealth may be long-term in nature (supply-side effects arising from a better condition of infrastructure, higher quality of human and social capital, development of entrepreneurship, etc.; Gorzelak & Smętkowski, 2019) and short-term in nature (demand-side effects arising from

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Fig. 18.4 (A) GDP per capita in 2015, (B) change in GDP per capita 2006–2015 (%), (C) average gross salary in 2015, (D) change in gross salary 2006–2015 (%) in NUTS 3 units. (Source: Own elaboration based on data by Local Data Bank of Central Statistical Office)

the scope of investment determined by the access to public funds or from the level of consumption of direct payments to agriculture; Crescenzi et  al., 2015). It was established that 72 statistical subregions (NUTS-3 units) were to act as analytical units. Two pairs of models were constructed, where dependent variables were represented by regional GDP per capita in 2015 and average monthly gross salary in 2015, respectively. Among the independent variables in each model there were GDP per capita and average remuneration prior to the analysed period (in 2006), respectively. Also, there were variables describing resources for internal growth at the onset of the period, viz. capital of enterprises (fixed assets in enterprises per capita in 2006) and skilled labour force (ratio of inhabitants with completed tertiary education according to the national census of 2002). Additionally, a dichotomous variable informed whether or not a region belonged to the group of regions from Eastern

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Poland which qualified for special support under the Eastern Poland Operational Programme. In the second model from every pair the amount of EU resources spent in a particular region within each fund was added to the independent variables. During the construction of the regression models the assumption was made that individual independent variables have multiplicative impacts on the dependent variables, therefore the regression function is expressed with a logarithm. Moreover, initial attempts at the construction of the regression model showed the spatial autocorrelation of residuals, which proves the existence of spatial effects – the ‘spillover’ of effects of spending and investment (Cliff & Ord, 1981). That is why instead of a simple regression model, a different model was constructed, a spatial simultaneous autoregressive error model. The calculations were made by means of the R spdep package (Bivand et al., 2013). Upon inclusion of the spatial effect, the regression function took the following form: n



ln ( y2015,i ) = β 0 ln ( y2006,i ) + β1 ln ( x1,i ) +  + β k ln ( xk ,i ) + λ ∑ ( Wi , j y j ) + ε i j =1



where y2015,i means the value of the dependent variable in 2015 in subregion i, y2006,i is the value of the variable at the beginning of the analysed period (in 2006), x1,i,… are the values of independent variables, and β represents coefficients in the model. Lambda (λ) means a coefficient of spatial autocorrelation. When its value is close to 0, it means there is no spatial autocorrelation between the values of variable y – in subregions lying close to each other the values, after elimination of the impact of the independent variables, are neither unexpectedly close to each other nor extremely different. Positive values of coefficient λ mean positive autocorrelation of variable y (neighbouring regions have similar economic dynamics unrelated to the similarities between the values of independent variables) and negative values point to negative spatial autocorrelation  – unexpectedly big differences between neighbouring regions. Wi,j stands for elements in the matrix of spatial relations. The spatial neighbourhood matrix standardized by lines was employed. Therefore, it was assumed that only adjoining regions may have a mutual impact on the value of the dependent variable. At the same time, the more neighbours the region has, the smaller the individual impact of each of them. The first model, which explains an increase in regional GDP by referring to development factors other than European funds, confirms the significant impact of all the assumed factors (Table  18.1). The highest coefficient by the first variable demonstrates that the regional diversification of GDP per capita is remarkably stable. Besides that, an above-average rise was noted in regions which at the beginning of the analysed period featured high levels of human and physical capital. Irrespective of other factors, Eastern Poland’s regions suffered from the slowest development. The diversification of average salaries turned out to be even more stable than the GDP values. Surprisingly, remunerations grew more slowly in places where initially the business capital was high, which proves the relative convergence of salaries. In most cases, the amount of EU subsidies did not have a statistically significant impact on changes in the GDP nor on salaries in subregions. No statistically

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Table 18.1  Spatial simultaneous autoregressive error models Dependent variable: GDP per capita in 2015 Independent variables: GDP in 2006 0.8138*** Earnings in 2006 0.0733*** Ratio of people with completed tertiary education in 2002 0.0842* Value of fixed assets in enterprises in 2006 per capita Location in Eastern −0.0559* Poland EU funds: Direct payments Rural development programme Regional operational programmes Infrastructure and environment operational programme Innovative economy operational programme Human capital operational programme Eastern Poland operational programme Lambda 0.2032 AIC −160.44

Dependent variable: Average gross remuneration in 2015

Dependent variable: Average gross remuneration in 2015

−0.0338

1.0420*** 0.0063

0.9650*** −0.0426

0.1108**

−0.0334***

−0.0157

0.1607

−0.0070

0.2727

Dependent variable: GDP per capita in 2015 0.7922***

0.0178 0.0086

0.0165* −0.0151

0.0720

0.0186

0.0287*

0.0123**

0.0038

−0.0091

−0.1180**

−0.0442*

−0.0104

−0.0135

0.1269 −160.01

0.0521 −291.17

0.1843 −296.94

Statistical significance: ˙ * p