Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan: Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations [1st ed.] 9789811542336, 9789811542343

Table of contents :
Front Matter ....Pages i-xxx
Issues and Theoretical Framework: Japanese Population Decline and Municipal Power/Regional Variations (Fumie Kumagai)....Pages 1-31
Methodology (Fumie Kumagai)....Pages 33-50
Population-Sustaining Power and Marriage Power by Prefecture and by Municipality (Fumie Kumagai)....Pages 51-74
Tokyo and Aichi Prefectures Along the Tokaido of the Goki-Shichido and Their Municipal Power (Fumie Kumagai)....Pages 75-106
Okinawa of Ryukyu, Fukuoka of the Saikaido, and Osaka of Kinai: The Goki-Shichido and Their Municipal Power (Fumie Kumagai)....Pages 107-152
Successful Municipal Revitalization in Devastated Communities in Eastern Japan: Some Examples from Aomori and Yamagata Prefectures in the Tosando (Fumie Kumagai)....Pages 153-191
People in Small Rural Municipality and on a Remote Island Connect Online to the Outside: Some Examples in Shimane Prefecture of the Sannindo and Kochi Prefecture of the Nankaido (Fumie Kumagai)....Pages 193-228
What Can Be Done Before a Municipality “Disappears”: Making the Best of Negative Municipal Resources (Fumie Kumagai)....Pages 229-264
Back Matter ....Pages 265-288

Citation preview

Fumie Kumagai

Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations

Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan

Fumie Kumagai

Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations

123

Fumie Kumagai Professor Emeritus, Kyorin University Tokyo, Japan

ISBN 978-981-15-4233-6 ISBN 978-981-15-4234-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4234-3

(eBook)

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore

Preface

More than four decades have passed since I became interested in the regional variations of my native country, Japan. Such an academic interest seems to have derived from an extended stay of 15 years in the United States, living in nine different states as a graduate student, college professor, and sociology researcher. I realized that the United States is truly diverse in her population and sociocultural outlook, even within the same state. Growing up in the suburbs of Tokyo I knew only about Tokyo, and whenever I was asked things about Japan, I started to wonder if my knowledge of Japan was appropriate or not. Soon after looking at Japan from the outside, I realized that Japan is, in fact, diverse in her characteristics. A tiny island nation, much smaller than the State of California, is a long stretched country, extending from the northern tip of the city of Wakkanai, located at about the same latitude as that of the United States-Canada border, to the islands of Okinawa, roughly equal to the southern tip of Florida. That realization made me notice how little knowledge I possessed about my own country. My partial ignorance of Japan was the starting point of my interest in the scientific study of regional variations in the population, family, household, and sociocultural characteristics of Japan. There are several episodes to remember. First, when I was a research fellow at the Japan Institute (now the Reischauer Institute of Japanese Studies) at Harvard University, a seminar on divorce and remarriage was held at Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium, sponsored by the International Sociological Association, Family Research Committee, in September 1981. I was honored to take the place of Prof. Kiyomi Morioka, a renowned scholar of Japanese family sociology, to present a paper on “Changing Divorce in Japan” on the recommendation of Prof. Morioka. My paper discussed a century of changes in divorce in Japan starting from 1882, contrasting prefectural differences. It was a total surprise to find that during the early history of divorce in Japan, Niigata Prefecture was one of the most divorce-prone regions. It was because Niigata Prefecture was and still is today one of the leading farming areas in Japan, and a large proportion of the labor force was engaged in agriculture prior to a high economic growth period. In addition, in the history of divorce in recent Japan, the northernmost prefecture of Hokkaido, and the southernmost prefecture of Okinawa v

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Prefecture are two of the highly divorce-prone prefectures. At the seminar, Prof. William Goode, an eminent scholar of international studies of divorce, commented highly on my research work, and the paper was published in the Journal of Family History (1983). It was, perhaps, the starting point of my scientific studies of regional variations of Japan, but it was at a prefectural level of analysis, rather than the municipal level. Obtaining the data was extremely difficult, and I visited data archive libraries quite often. The data for Japan and for prefectures in the study were adopted from the Japan National Yearbook (Meiji 4-Showa 1 (1871–1941) and Japan Statistical Yearbook (1947–1982)). It was beyond my imagination that small area open data, the major source of analyses for the current book, would become available through the Internet in less than 40 years. Fortunately, however, through the process of writing the article, I learned tremendously about regional variations and diversities in Japanese society which I had not been aware of. This realization drew me strongly to the topic of regional variations of Japanese population, the family, and household as a central theme for my research topic. The second episode that I should mention is my experiences in the town of Yamato in Minami-Uonuma County, Niigata Prefecture (the municipality now known as the city of Minami-Uonuma). I was a professor of sociology at the Graduate School of International Relations, International University of Japan for three years from 1984–87. It was the first time I lived outside Tokyo, and Yamato-machi displayed totally different scenes from what I knew about Japan. It was truly snow country, “Coming out of the long tunnel I saw snow country” as Yasunari Kawabata wrote at the beginning of his novel, Yukiguni (The Snow Country). Kawabata was the first Japanese writer to win the Nobel Prize for Literature. My experiences in Yamato strengthened the knowledge of diversity in Japan. Niigata Prefecture is divided not only by Echigo Province and Sado Province, but also by Jyo-Etsu, Chu-Etsu, and Ka-Etsu within Echigo Province. My research results were published as articles both in Japanese (1986a) and English (1986b); with a monograph in Japanese (1987) and a book in English entitled Unmasking Japan Today (1996). The third episode I should relate is a series of sessions that I organized for the Japan Society of Family Sociology from 1993 to 1995 on the topic of Japanese Families and Regional Variations. In organizing the sessions Prof. Kiyomi Morioka was extremely resourceful, and I owe him tremendously for the success of the sessions. Sessions were comprised of family sociologists who were well versed in local areas where each researcher resided. The anthology of research papers was published in two volumes entitled Japanese Families and Regional Variations (1997a, b). The fourth episode I would like to point out is my attempt to introduce the true state of Japanese families to the world. Up to that point Japanese families were introduced as “the Japanese family” as if there were no regional variations. By that time, I strongly believed that Japanese families should not be discussed by “average” figures, but should highlight regional variations. For this reason, I discussed families in Japan in such areas as fertility decline and population aging, household structures, marriage, and divorce with special attention to regional variations. The

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work was published as Families in Japan: Changes, Continuities, and Regional Variations (2008). The fifth episode was the surge of people’s strong interest in local communities and municipalities in Japan. It reached its peak when the Great East Japan Earthquake occurred on March 11, 2011. At that time, I had been drafting chapters for the book in Japanese that I would first publish in English, as stated in the fourth episode. It may sound strange that a book in Japanese comes only after I published the one in English. Nevertheless, my idea was strengthened by finding a strong interest in Japanese communities among Japanese people in general. Thus, I published a book in Japanese on the topic of community relations and municipal power with the assistance of two contributors, Hirotoshi Yagihashi, a sociolinguist, and Taeko Ishiguro, a community medical doctor (2011). The sixth episode which should be highlighted is when I participated in the seminar on “Living Alone in Asia” in Singapore in December 2013. An editor from Springer, one of the top rated leading academic book publishers in the world, approached me, to inquire about my interest in publishing a book in English. As I had written quite a few articles on Japanese families and population by prefectural level of analysis I agreed to compile them to produce a book in English. The invitation to write a book was no guarantee for book publication. Publishing an academic book in English entails an enormous amount of work, such as writing a book proposal of 10 pages, peer reviews by two anonymous referees, drafting a complete manuscript of eight chapters, again peer reviewed by two specialists on the topic, and the final revision based on their comments. It was then placed into the printing process, with galley proofs done via the Internet within a strictly limited length of time. Clearing each step was an enjoyable challenge to me rather than a series of problems to be avoided. The book was published in January 2015 entitled on Family Issues on Marriage, Divorce, and Older Adults in Japan: With Special Attention to Regional Variations, as hardcover print, and online eBook as well (2015). Up to the point stated above, data being analyzed were based on prefecture. In other words, it was the discussion of ken-min-sei (prefectural stereotypes, or pre-conceived notions about prefectures) without paying attention to regional variations within the same prefecture. In many parts of Japan, however, there are cases where the temperament and lifestyle customs vary greatly within the same prefecture, from east to west, north, and south. This recognition of diverse variations within a single prefecture prompted me to realize the need for a municipal level of analyses. This is derived from the fact that the current 47 prefectures in Japan are essentially based on the Bakuhan-taisei (feudal system of the shogunate and domains of the Edo period) comprised of 302 Han dynasties. Furthermore, it comes from the ancient system of Japanese Goki-Shichido (five home provinces and seven districts of ancient Japan) under the Ritsuryo system that dates back to the era of the decree of 710. For this reason, there are cases where the history, ethos, climate, humanity, customs, lifestyle, dialect, and temperament of the same prefecture are all different. As a result, there are many cases where characteristics vary among regions within the same prefecture.

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Therefore, I developed a strong desire to carry out analyses on population decline based on data by municipality. Fortunately, I was allowed to use statistical software such as G-Census and EvaCva, and was able to analyze the small area statistical open data compiled by the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. This was the seventh episode of my interest in the municipal level of analyses of families and population decline in Japan, and the book in Japanese was published in 2018 (Kumagai 2018). The intention to analyze Japan’s depopulating society from the standpoint of the regional power of municipalities was achieved. Regrettably, however, discussion of the Goki-Shichido and provinces with relation to regional variations within the same prefecture was premature, and it was hoped to become a central issue for future studies. This is it: Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan: Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations. The current book is truly unique in three aspects. First, the theoretical framework shows originality. In other words, it has been attempted to incorporate cultural and municipal characteristics into demographic analysis is interesting in the case of Japan highlighting historical factors as an explanation leading to distinct characters of different municipalities, and hence different “municipal power.” Second, the methodology is relatively creative, especially using small area data, i.e., various sociodemographic data of municipal level, to capture information at individual municipal level. It is remarkable to have access to such small area open data on Japan. Thus, the method has potential to attract more interest among scholars to utilize open data in their research. Third, the case of Japan provides a good lesson for other nations facing the same problem of population decline, and will encourage these nations to look into regional characteristics that may be utilized for revitalization. South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and later on China, for example, will be facing the same problems of population aging and regional shrinkage. Thus, I am certain that Japan’s experience as discussed in this book will be useful and provides comparative knowledge. Nevertheless, there are many other prefectures in Japan not discussed in the present study where regional variations within the same prefectures are outstanding. Studying them, i.e., not explored in the current study, would be the next agenda of my study. This work in English has, in part, been developed from my 2018 work published with Minerva-shobo in Japanese (Kumagai 2018), to which I hold the copyright. In writing the current book in English, however, I have developed the content in updating several aspects. First, today’s prefectures were discussed with relation to Goki-Shichido and provinces under the ancient political system based on the Ritsuryo Code. Second, the historical development of each prefecture and municipality were discussed extensively, as the knowledge of this history helps in understanding the significance of the regional cultural heritage which remains in each municipality today. Third, municipal level geographic maps of municipal power created by using GIS G-Census software, and EvaCva radar charts based on the small area data were included. Fourth, extensive discussion on the Local Revitalization Law of 2013 has been conducted. Fifth, the role of immigration and the foreign residents has been discussed as a strategy in the face of regional population decline

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and shrinkage for a more comprehensive understanding of how Japan is coping with the issue, especially under the new immigration law enacted in 2019. This book is a pioneering study analyzing the regional variations on small municipal levels, with demographic variables, sociocultural indicators, and historical identities. Thus, I strongly believe that the current book will make an original and unique contribution to regional population analysis in the fields. To a non-native speaker of English writing a lengthy book manuscript in English requires a total dedication and many sacrifices. I am fortunate, however, that Lawrence R. Blake, formerly a professional editor, has agreed to assist me in editing and rewriting to bring the manuscript into publishable form. Larry has been helping me well over the past decade, and is sensitive enough to understand what I would like to say and how to say it. Furthermore, I appreciate his sincere attitude toward the laborious task of editorial work. Should there be no assistance from him, it would not have been possible to complete the numerous tasks required to publish this book. Sincere acknowledgment is also extended to various individuals and institutions. Without their cooperation and support, this project could not have been accomplished. It is next to impossible to name them all, but let me list a few. For the use of small area data analysis programs, I owe tremendously the generosity of two institutions. They are Jun Konishi, Senior Researcher, the Statistical Information Institute for Consulting and Analysis (Sinfonica) for G-Census program, and the Fujitsu Social Science Laboratory, Ltd. for EvaCva program. Professors Hiroaki Shimizu, and Toshihiko Hara, well-known scholars of demography and the family, provided me with insightful suggestions and professional advice on the analysis of Japanese regional data. Alex Westcott Campbell, Editor of Springer Singapore encouraged me to pursue writing this manuscript by providing me with valuable instructions all the way. Satvinder Kaur, Editor of Springer India assisted me tremendously during the final stage of this book publication. Last but not least, special appreciation is extended to two anonymous reviewers of the book proposal, and two anonymous reviewers of the complete manuscript for their critical but constructive comments. At first, critical comments of reviewers were difficult to accept, but they were truly constructive and professional which lead to the completion of this project. Tokyo, Japan

Fumie Kumagai [email protected]

References of Fumie Kumagai cited in the Preface Kumagai, F. (1983). Changing divorce in Japan. Journal of Family History, 8, 1 (Spring), 85–108. Kumagai, F. (1986a). Nihon no kazoku no nijukozo (The dual structure of the Japanese family). Japanese Sociological Review, 36, 4 (March), 406–423. Kumagai, F. (1986b). Modernization and the family in Japan. Journal of Family History, 11, 4: 371–382.

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Kumagai, F. (1987). Kaso to Kamitsu ni Ikiru San-Sedai no Nihonjin [Three generation families in rural and urban Japan]. Tokyo: Toyota Foundation. Kumagai, F. (1996). Unmasking Japan today: The impact of traditional values on modern Japanese society. Westport, Conn.: Praeger. Kumagai, F. (1997a). Nihon no Kazoku to Chiikisei: Higashi Nihon no Kazoku wo Chuushintoshite [Japanese Family Structure and Regional Variations: Special Emphasis on Eastern Japan] (pp. 200+x), (Ed.). Kyoto: Minerva Shobo. ISBN4-623-02748-1. Kumagai, F. (1997b). Nihon no Kazoku to Chiikisei: Nishi Nihon no Kazoku wo Chuushintoshite [Japanese Family Structure and Regional Variations: Special Emphasis on Western Japan] (pp. 216+x), (ed). Kyoto: Minerva Shobo. ISBN4-623-02749-x. Kumagai, F. (2008). Families in Japan: Changes, continuities, and regional variations. Lanham, MD: University Press of America, Inc. Kumagai, F. (2011). Nihon no Chienn to Chiikiryoku: Chiiki no Kizuna Kouchikuhemukete [Community relations and community strength: Constructing the community bond.] Edited and authored by Kumagai, Fumie, and with Yagihashi, Hirotoshi, and Ishiguro, Taeko as chapter contributors respectively. Kyoto, Minerva-shobo. Kumagai, F. (2015). Family issues on marriage, divorce, and older adults in Japan: With special attention to regional variations. Singapore: Springer Nature. Kumagai, F. (2018). Chiikiryoku de Tachimukau Jinkou Genshou Shakai: Chiisana Jichitai no Chiiki Saisei Saku [Declining Population and Municipal Power in Japan: Policies for Area Revitalization of Small Municipalities.] Kyoto: Minerva-shobo.

Prologue: Introducing This Book

The Municipal Power (Chiiki-ryoku) of Japan is defined by the author of this book as historical, geographic, socioeconomic, and demographic characteristics, both positive and negative, which make up municipal and regional variations in historical context. Through identification of the municipal power this book attempts to provide vital images of regional population in Japanese municipalities, which are on the verge of extinction, struggling for their survival. In other words, municipal power provides effective regional policies for Japanese regional communities and for other countries facing with similar problems of population aging and regional shrinking. Therefore, the current book will make a unique contribution to regional population analyses in the fields of regional demography, historical demography, and regional population policy. There are quite a few books published on population aging and the shrinking of Japanese society which have generated keen attention among experts in many countries entering into the post-demographic transition phase. However, there is no other book which analyzes the regional variations on small municipal levels, with demographic variables, social indicators, and historical identities all intertwined. The theoretical framework for regional variations by municipality in Japan is set forth by the Goki-Shichido (Five Home Provinces and Seven Circuits of ancient Japan) under the Ritsuryo code, and provinces under the Han dynasties. The view presented in this book gives a long historical perspective on population and community development. Methods of analyses adopted in this book are unique in elaborating the significance of municipal power through statistical analysis using demographic data on national, regional, prefectural, and municipal levels, while combining other socioeconomic data. As for historical perspective and recent policy measures, the author has gathered broad qualitative information from historical archives, government papers, municipal documents, and NPO websites. This book is very informative and can present vivid images of Japan’s demographic situation at the regional and municipal level. We hope to prove that the population, and the municipality should not and cannot be judged by mere number of inhabitants but xi

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the aggregation of human history among the inhabitants from the past, present, and the future. Now that the unique aspects and the strength of the present book have been highlighted, the author admits her lack of sophisticated statistical knowledge. More specifically, weaknesses in advanced statistical analytical technique are found in two aspects. First, the relationship between historical background like the Goki-Shichido and/or the provinces under Han dynasties and the municipal power of municipalities studied are statistically suggested but not fully clarified. Second, causality and interrelationships among indicators for municipal power are not explained statistically to a full extent, but explanations are rather speculative. The purpose of this book, however, is not to clarify the causalities of municipal power but to observe the regional variations by municipality. For this reason, the author believes that the objective of this book has been met. Nevertheless, these weaknesses will give enough stimulus to younger generations of researchers to follow the framework that the author presented with more advanced statistical analytical technique. This book, therefore, elaborates on the significance of municipal power, both positive and negative, inherent in each municipality. It is because municipal power is one of the most effective countermeasures for population decline, and revitalization in Japan. Then, how is “Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan: Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations” organized and presented? The following is a brief explanation in seriatim on the structure of this book. Chapter 1 defines the central concept of this book, i.e., municipal power, as a determinant for the population decline, both positive and negative, and discusses historical developments and projections for population-declining Japanese society at the national level. Then, the chapter emphasizes the need for analyses through the regional revitalization method. Finally, the chapter discusses the theoretical framework for regional variations by municipality in Japan, i.e., the Goki-Shichido and provinces under Han dynasties. Chapter 2 explains the creative research methodology of this book, especially adopting small area open data to reveal information on power at the individual municipal level. These small area open data are presented graphically using GPI statistical software such as G-Census and EvaCva, enabling the reader to understand the regional distributions of population decline in Japan clearly. Chapter 3 studies three issues. First, the study identifies a strong relationship between the population-sustaining power and the marriage power by prefecture and by municipality in 2013. Second, projected population increase rates from 2010 to 2040 by prefecture and by municipality are studied by paying close attention to differences in the Goki-Shichido and provinces. Third, the study reveals the population concentration tendency for eight prefectures, rather than the popular hypothesis of population centralization in Tokyo. The importance of municipal power for revitalizing and reconstructing the population-declining municipalities are discussed in Chaps. 4–7. Chapter 4 highlights the fact that prefectures located in eastern Japan with high population increase, (or low population decrease) rates in 2040 projections all fall along the

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Tokaido of the Goki-Shichido, and the chapter studies Tokyo and Aichi Prefectures in detail. The regional variations within each of these prefectures are quite outstanding, affected by the provincial differences. For the case of Tokyo, municipal power differs among Musashi Province, Izu Province, and Okutama Region. As for Aichi Prefecture municipal divisions are distinctive between Owari Region and Mikawa Region. In western Japan, the study identifies prefectures which show high population increase (or low population decrease) rates in 2040 projections. From them Chap. 5 focused on Okinawa, Fukuoka, and Osaka Prefectures for detailed analyses of municipal power. Municipalities in Okinawa Prefecture reveal unique characteristics of municipal power derived from the historical development of the Ryukyu Kingdom, quite different from the innate Japanese sociocultural and demographic characteristics. The chapter also studies Fukuoka Prefecture of the Saikaido where provincial divisions of Buzen, Chikuzen, Chikugo, and Chikuho Provinces are distinctive. As for Osaka Prefecture, composed of three of the Five Home Provinces (Goki), presents itself three distinctively different provincial characteristics of Kawachi, Izumi, and Oumi. Four prefectures in northeastern Japan, namely Akita, Aomori, Iwate, and Yamagata in Mutsu and Dewa Provinces of the Tosando, are among the prefectures with most severely projected population losses. Chapter 6 studies the municipal power of Nishimeya-mura in Aomori Prefecture and Higashine-shi in Yamagata Prefectures in detail. It is remarkable to observe the efforts taken by the people in these remote impoverished municipalities, and they turn their municipal power into a driving force for their regional revitalization. Chapter 7 examines the municipal power of prefectures in western Japan whose population-sustaining power has been devastated for some time. The chapter chooses two prefectures for detailed analyses, Shimane in the Sannindo, and Kochi in the Nankaido. As for Shimane Prefecture, it is amazing to observe a clear sociocultural division of three provinces, namely Izumo, Iwami, and Oki. In the southwestern part of Japan the chapter analyzes Kochi of Tosa Province, in the Nankaido. However, no significant variation among the 34 municipalities in Kochi Prefecture is identified. Nevertheless, Otoyo-cho, one of the most seriously depopulated municipalities in Kochi Prefecture, presents its unique way to utilize municipal power for its own revitalization. Chapter 8, the final chapter of this book, reiterates that the very first step for regional revitalization is to learn its own municipal power, be it positive or negative. In the era of the so-called Society 5.0, this chapter explores some successful cases of community revitalization through the active use of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) programs. Close attention has been paid to successful applications for community building, such as drones, the Internet of Things (IoT), open data, cloud service, crowdfunding, inbound tourism, and sharing economies. With all these ICT programs the author of this book foresees that “smart municipalities” in small regional areas will become vital forces for the revitalization of Japanese society. In addition, an emerging view in revitalizing rural communities is to open the door to workers from overseas to fill any domestic manpower

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shortage. Izumo-shi of Shimane Prefecture, for example, is successful in alleviating population decline by accepting foreign workers. In fact, Japan is in need for immigration for sustaining the country. In the epilogue the author of this book admits two major shortcomings and unresolved issues of the current study. First, some additional consideration for the selection of variables to measure municipal power would be necessary, both on objective and subjective dimensions. Such additional variables will enable the researcher to conduct advanced statistical analyses of multilinearity of indicators. The author wishes and expects this venture will be pursued by younger generations. Another unresolved issue of the study is that deliberate efforts have been made in taking the Goki-Shichido, particularly its provinces, as the theoretical framework to examine regional differences in municipal power, especially within the same prefecture. Nevertheless, nine prefectures selected for the current study, i.e., Tokyo, Aichi, Aomori, Yamagata, Osaka, Shimane, Kochi, Fukuoka, and Okinawa, may not be enough to validate the theoretical framework for regional variations. The author is most willing to take the challenge to overcome this aspect of shortcoming in the near future. Now that the structure of this book has been presented, it is hoped that the central theme of the book has become clear. In other words, by identifying municipal power, both positive strengths and negative weaknesses, it is possible to revitalize Japanese municipalities on the verge of shrinking and disappearing. Having said that, now is the time to begin our discussion on Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan: Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations.

Contents

1 Issues and Theoretical Framework: Japanese Population Decline and Municipal Power/Regional Variations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1 Population-Declining Japanese Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.1 Population Decline in Progress in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.2 Changes in the Total Fertility Rate, Birth Rate, Death Rate, and Natural Increase Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.3 The Graying of Japan: Population Aging Japanese Society . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.4 Japanese Population Changes Through Population Pyramids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.5 A Trend Toward More Households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.6 Marriage Power, the Population-Sustaining Power, and Household Type . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 Population Decline and Regional Revitalization . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2.1 Projected Japanese Population in the Year 2040 . . . . . . 1.2.2 Regional Revitalization Law of 2014 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3 Theoretical Framework for Regional Variations by Municipality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.1 Chiiki as Region: The Definition of Chiiki Is not Established yet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.3.2 Goki-Shichido (the Five Home Provinces and Seven Circuits), Provinces and Regional Variations in Japan . . 1.3.3 Japanese Municipalities and Local Governments . . . . . . 1.4 Municipal Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4.1 Needs for Analyzing Population Decline by Municipality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.4.2 Analyzing Regional Revitalizations Through Municipal Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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2 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1 Open Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.1 The Definition of Open Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.2 Interoperability of Open Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.3 Significance of Open Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.1.4 Five Steps of Open Data and the Data Format . . . . . . . . 2.1.5 Open Data for the Current Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Small Area Statistics Data on Demography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1 The 18 Variables Which Seem to Affect the Population Increase Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2 Changes in the Population Increase Rate (%) and CMR (‰) by Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.3 The Population Increase Rate and CMR by Municipality: 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3 Projections for Japanese Population Increase Rates by Prefecture and by Municipality in 2040 and 2045 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.1 Top Ten Prefectures with High Population Increase Rate Projections in 2040 and 2045 (in Descending Order of Population Increase Rate) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.3.2 Bottom Eight Prefectures with High Population Decrease Rate Projections in 2040 and 2045 (i.e., Prefectures Ranked at the 40th to the 47th) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.4 Municipal Challenges in Innovative Community Building . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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3 Population-Sustaining Power and Marriage Power by Prefecture and by Municipality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.1 Population Increase Rates and Crude Marriage Rates (CRD) by Prefecture and Municipality in 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 Increase Rates in Projected Population of Municipalities by Prefecture: From 2010 to 2040 and from 2015 to 2045 . . . . 3.3 Marriage Power and Population Sustaining Power by Municipality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.4 Household Type: Nuclear Family Household and Generational Family Household . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.5 Population Issues on Ikkyoku Shuchu (Monopolar Concentration) in Tokyo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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4 Tokyo and Aichi Prefectures Along the Tokaido of the Goki-Shichido and Their Municipal Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1 Tokyo Metropolis, Chuo-ku of Musashi Province, Hinohara-mura of Sagami Province, and Mikurajima-mura of Izu Province . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.1 History of Musashi Province, Edo, and Tokyo . . . . . . . 4.1.2 Household Type, Marriage Power, and PopulationSustaining Power of Tokyo, Musashi and Izu Provinces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.3 Population Changes by Age Group: Tokyo, Chuo-ku, Hinohara-mura, and Mikurajima-mura . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.4 Radar Chart of Tokyo: Chuo-ku, Mikurajima-mura, and Hinohara-mura . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.5 Municipal Power of Chuo-ku: Commerce and Living . . 4.1.6 Municipal Power of Mikurajima-mura: Policies for Young Adults . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2 Aichi Prefecture, Nagakute-shi of Owari Province, and Toei-cho of Mikawa Province . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.1 How Aichi Prefecture Was Brought About . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.2 Mikawa Province vs. Owari Province . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.3 Population Changes by Age Group: Aichi, Nagakute-shi, Tokoname-shi, and Toeicho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.4 Radar Chart of Aichi: Nagakute-shi, Tokoname-shi, and Toei-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.5 Municipal Power of Nagakute-shi of Owari Region: The Youngest City in Japan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.6 Municipal Power of Toei-cho: Tehohe Festival . . . . . . . 4.3 Impacts of the Goki-Shichido on Variations in Municipal Power Among Municipalities in the Same Prefecture: Tokyo and Aichi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Okinawa of Ryukyu, Fukuoka of the Saikaido, and Osaka of Kinai: The Goki-Shichido and Their Municipal Power . . . . 5.1 Okinawa Prefecture and Nakagusuku-son . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.1 A Brief History of Ryukyu and Okinawa Prefecture 5.1.2 Household Type, Marriage Power and PopulationSustaining Power of Okinawa Prefecture: Ryukyu Province . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.1.3 Population Changes by Age Group: Okinawa, Nakagusuku-son,Tomigusuku-shi, and Zamami-son . 5.1.4 Radar Chart of Okinawa: Nakagusuku-son, Tomigusuku-shi, and Zamami-son . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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5.1.5 Nakagusuku-son: History and Population Changes . . 5.1.6 Municipal Power of Nakagusuku-son . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 Fukuoka Prefecture and Kasuya-machi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.1 A Brief History of Fukuoka Prefecture: Chikuzen, Chikugo, and Bizen Provinces of the Saikaido . . . . 5.2.2 Household Type, Marriage Power, and PopulationSustaining Power of Fukuoka Prefecture: Chikuzen, Chikugo, and Bizen Provinces of the Saikaido . . . . 5.2.3 Municipal Power of Kasuya-machi . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3 Osaka Prefecture and Tajiri-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.1 The Outlook of Osaka Prefecture: Settsu, Kawachi, and Izumi Provinces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.2 A Brief History of Osaka Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.3 Population of Osaka Prefecture by District . . . . . . . 5.3.4 Household Type, Marriage Power, and PopulationSustaining Power of Osaka Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.5 Municipal Power of Tajiri-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Contents

. . . . . 117 . . . . . 121 . . . . . 122 . . . . . 122

. . . . . 125 . . . . . 131 . . . . . 135 . . . . . 135 . . . . . 136 . . . . . 138 . . . . . 140 . . . . . 144 . . . . . 150

6 Successful Municipal Revitalization in Devastated Communities in Eastern Japan: Some Examples from Aomori and Yamagata Prefectures in the Tosando . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1 Tohoku Region of Mutsu and Dewa Provinces in the Tosando . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 Jomon Culture and the Tohoku Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 Aomori Prefecture and Nishimeya-mura . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.1 Profile of Aomori Prefecture: Tsugaru and Nanbu District . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.2 A Brief History of Aomori Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.3 Municipalities in Aomori Prefecture by District and Region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.4 Household Type, Marriage Power, and PopulationSustaining Power of Aomori Prefecture: Tsugaru and Nanbu Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3.5 Municipal Power of Nishimeya-mura . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4 Yamagata Prefecture and Higashine-shi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4.1 Profile of Yamagata Prefecture: Murayama, Mogami, Okitama, Shonai Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4.2 A Brief History of Yamagata Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . 6.4.3 Municipalities in Yamagata Prefecture by Region . . . . 6.4.4 Household Type, Marriage Power, and PopulationSustaining Power of Yamagata Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . 6.4.5 Municipal Power of Higashine-shi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Contents

7 People in Small Rural Municipality and on a Remote Island Connect Online to the Outside: Some Examples in Shimane Prefecture of the Sannindo and Kochi Prefecture of the Nankaido . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1 Shimane Prefecture and Ama-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.1 Profile of Shimane Prefecture: Izumo, Iwami, and Oki Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.2 A Brief History of Shimane Prefecture: How the Prefecture Came About . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.1.3 Municipalities in Shimane Prefecture by Region . . . . . . 7.2 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power of Shimane Prefecture: Izumo, Iwami, and Oki Provinces of the Sannindo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.1 Household Type, Marriage Power, and PopulationSustaining Power of Shimane Prefecture by Region . . . . 7.2.2 Population Changes by Age Group of Shimane Prefecture, Matsue-shi, Tsuwano-cho, and Ama-cho . . . 7.2.3 Radar Chart of Shimane Prefecture: Matsue-shi, Tsuwano-cho, and Ama-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3 Municipal Power of Ama-cho: “There Is Nothing that Is Not There” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.1 An Overview of Ama-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.2 Population Changes in Ama-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.3.3 Municipal Power of Ama-cho: “There Is Nothing that Is Not There” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4 Kochi Prefecture and Otoyo-cho of Tosa Province on the Nankaido . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4.1 A Profile of Kochi Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.4.2 A Brief History of Kochi Prefecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.5 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power of Kochi Prefecture: Tosa Province of the Nannkaido . . 7.5.1 Household Type, Marriage Power, and PopulationSustaining Power of Kochi Prefecture by Region . . . . . . 7.5.2 Population Changes by Age Group of Kochi Prefecture, Kochi-shi, Konan-shi, and Otoyo-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.5.3 Radar Chart of Kochi Prefecture: Kochi-shi, Konan-shi, and Otoyo-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.6 Municipal Power of Otoyo-cho: Small but Effective Projects that People in the Mountain Rural Area Appreciate . . . . . . . . . 7.6.1 An Overview of Otoyo-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.6.2 Population Changes in Otoyo-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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7.6.3 Municipal Power of Otoyo-cho: Some Countermeasures for the Revitalization of Otoyo-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 222 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 226 8 What Can Be Done Before a Municipality “Disappears”: Making the Best of Negative Municipal Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1 Needs for Regional Revitalization Programs by Analyses of Municipal Power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1.1 Comments on Regional Revitalization Law of 2014 . . . 8.1.2 Municipal Power, the Goki-Shichido, and Provinces . . . 8.1.3 Revitalization by Independence and Awareness . . . . . . . 8.2 Community Revitalization in the Era of Society 5.0 . . . . . . . . . 8.2.1 Using Drones . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.2 Using Various ICT Programs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.3 Using Cloud Service . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.4 Crowdfunding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.5 Inbound Tourism as Regional Revitalization Using ICTs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.6 Sharing Economies and Community Revitalization . . . . 8.3 Immigration: A New Strategy for Municipal Revitalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.1 Foreign Brides to Maintain Rural Farm Households . . . . 8.3.2 Foreign Workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.3 Revised Immigration and Refugee Recognition Act of 2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3.4 An Example of a Municipality Successful in Accepting Foreign Workers: Izumo-shi, Shimane Prefecture . . . . . . 8.3.5 Reasons Why Izumo-shi Attracts Foreign Residents . . . . References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Epilogue: The Future of Japanese Population and Society . . . . . . . . . . . 265 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269 Author Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 271 Subject Index. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275

List of Figures

Fig. 1.1

Fig. 1.2

Fig. 1.3

Fig. 1.4

Fig. 1.5

Fig. 1.6

Fig. 1.7

Changes in Japan’s population and the rate of increase every five years, from census data 1920–2015. Source IPSSR (2018a, Table 1.1). The figures are compiled and constructed by the author. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Long term changes in birth, death, and natural increase rates (‰) of the Japanese population: 1900–2015. Source IPSSR (2018a, Tables 12–26, 12–27), and MWL (Table 1). The figure is compiled and drawn by the author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Changes in percent distribution of the Japanese population by 3 age groups: 1884–2060. Source IPSSR (2018a, Tables 2.6 and 2.8), and MIAC (2017). The figure is compiled and constructed by the author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Changes in Japanese population pyramids by sex and five-year groupings: 1970, 1990, 2010, 2015, 2040 (projected). Source For 1970, 1990, and 2010 G-Census Japanese Census Data, and for 2015 and 2040 (projections) IPSSR (2013a). Figures are compiled and constructed by the author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Regions and prefectures of Japan. Source Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository, https://commons. wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Regions_and_Prefectures_of_Japan_ 2.svg. Accessed 8, Mar 2020. Labels are added by the author. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Japanese population by prefecture in 2015, and increase rates from 2010. Source Statistics Bureau (2016, Table 11.1). The figure is compiled and drawn by the author . . . . . . . . . . . Changes in the annual population increase rate (%) and marriage rate (‰): 1900–2015. Source IPSSR (2017, Tables 1.1, 1.2, 4.1), and MHLW 2016b, Table 2 for 2015 data. The figure is compiled and constructed by the author.

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Fig. 1.8

Fig. 1.9

Fig. 1.10

Fig. 1.11

Fig. 1.12

Fig. 1.13

Fig. 2.1 Fig. 2.2

List of Figures

Pearson Correlation Coefficient: r = 0.842; p < 0.001; and Regression Analysis: Y (Annual Population Increase Rate) = △2.254 + 0.413X (Marriage Rate); p < 0.001; Adjusted Residual R2 = 0.679 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Marriage rate (%) and population increase rate (%) by prefecture: 2014. Source e-Stat: Small Area Database: http://www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/chiiki/CommunityProfileTop DispatchAction.do?code=2 (Accessed 8 Sep 2016). The figure is compiled and constructed by the author. The National Average: Marriage Rate = 5.07; Population Increase Rate = −0.17; Correlation Coefficient r = 0.908; p < 0.001; Regression Analysis Y(Population Increase Rate) = △3.947 + 0.742X (Marriage Rate); p < 0.001; Adjusted R2 = 0.820 . . . Population increase rates projection for Japanese population by municipality: 2010–2040. Source IPSSR (2013), and using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Examples of projected population increase rates by municipality for Tokyo and Akita 2010–2040. Source IPSSR (2013) and using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www. g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Examples of rader charts by municipality in Tokyo and Akita. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. http://evacva.net/. Accessed 3 Apr 2018. Note Score for “0” indicates that no data is available for the index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Goki-Shichido (Five Regions and Seven National Routes). Source Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gokishichido.svg. Accessed 8 Mar 2020. Labels are added by the author . . . . . . Map of Japan in provinces in time of the Tokugawa era. Source Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Japan_in_ Provinces_in_time_of_Iyeyasu.jpg. Accessed 8 Mar 2020 . . . Five star open data. Source Berners-Lee (2006) . . . . . . . . . . . Changes in the annual population increase rate (%) by prefecture: 1970–1990–2015 (a) 1965–1970 (Average = 1.08; Highest = 5.10
Saitama; Lowest = −1.38
Kagoshima), (b) 1985–1990 (Average = 0.42; Highest = 1.78
Saitama; Lowest = −0.55
Aomori), (c) 2010–2015 (Average = −0.15; Highest = 0.58
Okinawa; Lowest = −1.19
Akita). Source IPSSR (2017), Table 12.3. The figures are compiled and constructed by the author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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List of Figures

Fig. 2.3

Fig. 2.4

Fig. 2.5

Fig. 3.1

Fig. 3.2

Fig. 4.1

Fig. 4.2

Changes in the crude marriage rate (‰) by prefecture: 1970–1990–2015 (a) 1970 (Average = 10.0; Highest = 12.5
Osaka; Lowest = 6.4
Kagoshima), (b) 1990 (Average = 5.9; Highest = 7.0
Tokyo; Lowest = 4.5
Shimane), (c) 2015 (Average = 5.1; Highest = 6.6
Tokyo; Lowest = 3.5
Akita). Source Statistics Bureau, MIAC (2016), Table 9.2. The figures are compiled and constructed by the author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Examples of projected population increase rates by municipality for Tokyo and Akita: 2010–2040. (a) Tokyo in 2040 (53, excluding 9 Islands, municipalities in total as of 2020), (b) projection for Akita Prefecture in 2040 (25 municipalities in total). Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020 . . . . . . Examples of radar charts by municipality in Tokyo and Akita (a) rader chart of Tokyo (Chuo-ku, Mikurajima-mura, Toshima-ku, Hinohara-mura), (b) rader chart of Akita (Ogatamura, Akita-shi, Kamikoani-mura). Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. http://evacva.net/. Accessed 3 Apr 2018. Note: Score for “0” indicates that no data is available for the index . . . . . . . . . . . Proportions of household type by prefecture: 2010 (a) nuclear family household, (b) generational family household, (c) living alone household Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 15 Feb 2020 . . . . . Correlation between the share (%) of the population by prefecture in 2015 and in 2045 (projected). Source IPSSR (2020), Table 12–06, data and figures are compiled and constructed by the author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Map of Tokyo Metropolis by municipality (23-ku (wards), 26-shi (cities,) 5-machi (towns), and 8-mura (villages) = Total of 62 Municipalities) (a) Tokyo Metropolis (b) Islands of Tokyo. Source Tokyo Metropolis Labelled Map, https://en. wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Tokyo_Metropolis_Labelled_ Map, and Japan Islands of Tokyo Map, https://commons. wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Japan_Islands_of_Tokyo_Map.svg, from Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. Accessed 10 Mar 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Projected population increase rates by municipality for Tokyo: 2010–2040 (not including island regions). Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

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Fig. 4.3

Fig. 4.4

Fig. 4.5

Fig. 4.6

Fig. 5.1

Fig. 5.2

Fig. 5.3

Fig. 5.4

List of Figures

Tokyo radar chart: Chuo-ku, Mikurajima-mura, and Hinohara-mura. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. https://evacva. net/app/?lang=en&radar_dataset=default. Accessed 10 July 2018. Note Score for “0” indicates that no data is available for the index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Map of Aichi Prefecture by municipality and by district (38 cities, 14 towns, and 2 villages = Total of 54 municipalities). Source GIS free color map, https://n.freemap. jp/st/list.html, and https://n.freemap.jp/tp/Aichi. Accessed 8 Mar 2020. The map is drawn by the author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Projected population increase rates by municipality for Aichi Prefecture: 2010–2040. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Aichi Prefecture radar chart: Nagakute-shi, Tokoname-shi, and Toei-cho. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. https://evacva.net/app/? lang=en&radar_dataset=default. Accessed 10 July 2018. Note Score for “0” indicates that no data is available for the index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Map of Okinawa Prefecture by municipality (11 cities, 11 towns, and 19 villages = Total of 41 municipalities). Sources Map-okinawa-pref https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File: Map-okinawa-pref.png, and Map of Okinawa Prefecture, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File: MapofOkinawaPrefectureJa.svg, from Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. Accessed 10 Mar 2020 . . . . . . . . . Projected population increase rates by municipality for Okinawa Prefecture: 2010–2040. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Okinawa Prefecture radar chart: Nakagusuku-son, Tomigusuku-shi, and Zamami-son. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. https://evacva.net/app/?lang=en&radar_dataset=default. Accessed 11 July 2018. Note Score for “0” indicates that no data is available for the index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . World Heritage Nakagusuku Castle Ruins. Source Nakagusuku Castle, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File: Nakagusuku_Castle25bs3104.jpg, from Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. Accessed 10 Mar 2020 . . . . . . . . .

..

82

..

89

..

93

..

95

. . 111

. . 114

. . 116

. . 118

List of Figures

Fig. 5.5

Fig. 5.6

Fig. 5.7

Fig. 5.8

Fig. 5.9

Fig. 5.10

Fig. 6.1

Fig. 6.2

Map of Fukuoka Prefecture by municipality and by district (28 cities, 30 towns, and 2 villages = Total of 60 municipalities). Source GIS free color map, https://n.freemap. jp/st/list.html, and https://n.freemap.jp/tp/Fukuoka. Accessed 11 Mar 2020. The map is drawn by the author. . . . . . . . . . . . Projected population increase rates by municipality for Fukuoka Prefecture: 2010–2040. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Fukuoka Prefecture radar chart: Kasuya-machi, Fukuoka-shi, and Toho-mura. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fuji Laboratories, Ltd. https://evacva. net/app/?lang=en&radar_dataset=default. Accessed 11 July 2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Map of Osaka Prefecture by municipality and by district (33 cities, 9 towns, and 1 village = Total of 43 municipalities). Source GIS free color map, https://n.freemap.jp/st/list.html, and https://n.freemap.jp/tp/Osaka. Accessed 11 Mar 2020. The map is drawn by the author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Projected population increase rates by municipality for Osaka Prefecture: 2010–2040. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Osaka Prefecture radar chart: Osaka-shi, Tajiri-cho, Nose-cho. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. https://evacva.net/app/?lang= en&radar_dataset=default. Accessed 11 July 2018 . . . . . . . . . Map of Aomori Prefecture by municipality (10 cities, 22 towns, and 8 villages = Total of 40 municipalities). Source GIS free color map, https://n.freemap.jp/st/list.html, and https://n. freemap.jp/tp/Aomori. Accessed 9 Mar 2020. The map is drawn by the author. Note Numbers on the map correspond to those found for the name of each municipality listed under each region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Projections for population increase rates by municipality in 2040 against 2010: Aomori Prefecture. Source Using the GCensus geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

xxv

. . 124

. . 129

. . 134

. . 136

. . 139

. . 146

. . 158

. . 163

xxvi

Fig. 6.3

Fig. 6.4

Fig. 6.5

Fig. 6.6

Fig. 7.1

Fig. 7.2

Fig. 7.3

List of Figures

Aomori Prefecture radar chart: Oirase-cho, Nishimeya-mura, Imabetsu-machi. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. https://evacva. net/app/?lang=en&radar_dataset=default. Accessed 11 July 2018. Note Score for “0” indicates that no data is available for the index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Map of Yamagata Prefecture by municipality (13 cities, 19 towns, and 3 villages = Total of 35 municipalities). Source GIS free color map, https://n.freemap.jp/st/list.html, and https://n.freemap.jp/tp/Yamagata. Accessed 9 Mar 2020. The map is drawn by the author. Note Numbers on the map correspond to those found for the name of each municipality listed under each region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Projections for population increase rates by municipality in 2040 against 2010: Yamagata Prefecture. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yamagata Prefecture rader chart: Higashine-shi, Yamagata-shi, and Okura-mura. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. https://evacva. net/app/?lang=en&radar_dataset=default. Accessed 11 July 2018 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Map of Shimane Prefecture by region and municipality (8 cities, 10 towns, and 1 village = Total of 19 municipalities). Source GIS free color map, https://n.freemap.jp/st/list.html, and https://n.freemap.jp/tp/Shimane. Accessed 8 Mar 2020. The map is drawn by the author. Note Numbers on the map correspond to those found for the name of each municipality listed under each region . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Projected population increase rates by municipality for Shimane Prefecture: 2010–2040. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Shimane Prefecture radar chart: Matsue-shi, Ama-cho, Tsuwano-cho. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. https://evacva.net/ app/?lang=en&radar_dataset=default. Accessed 11 July 2018. Note Score for “0” indicates that no data is available for the index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

. . 164

. . 173

. . 179

. . 180

. . 195

. . 203

. . 204

List of Figures

Fig. 7.4

Fig. 7.5

Fig. 7.6

Fig. 7.7

Fig. 8.1

Fig. 8.2

Fig. 8.3 Fig. 8.4

Fig. 8.5

Map of Kochi Prefecture by municipality (11 cities, 17 towns, and 6 villages = Total of 34 municipalities). Source GIS free color map, https://n.freemap.jp/st/list.html, and https://n. freemap.jp/tp/Kouchi. Accessed 8 Mar 2020. The map is drawn by the author. Note Numbers on the map correspond to those found for the name of each municipality listed . . . . . . . Projected population increase rates by municipality for Kochi Prefecture: 2010–2040. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Kochi Prefecture radar chart: Konan-shi, Kochi-shi, Otoyocho. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. https://evacva.net/app/? lang=en&radar_dataset=default. Accessed 11 July 2018 . . . . . Tanada in Otoyo-cho, Kochi Prefecture. Source Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository, https://commons. wikimedia.org/wiki/File:%E8%99%B9%E3%81%AE%E3% 81%82%E3%82%8B%E9%A2%A8%E6%99%AF_-_ panoramio.jpg. Accessed 8 Feb 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Total population prospects: 1950–2100. (a) World. (b) Japan. Source United Nations (2019). Using the graphs function of the UN data, figures are compiled by the author. https:// population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/. Accessed 5 Aug 2019 . . . . . . Changes and projections for percentage of population aged 65 years and over: 1950–2100. (a) World. (b) Japan. Source United Nations (2019). Using the Graphs function of the UN data, figures are compiled by the author. https://population.un. org/wpp/Graphs/. Accessed 5 Aug 2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Society 5.0. Source Cabinet Office, Government of Japan (2016) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Changes in the total number of foreign residents in Japan: 1950–2019. Source Data from 1950–2017 are taken from the Table 10-01 in IPSSR 2019, and 2018 and 2019 are from eStat at https://www.e-stat.go.jp/statsearch/files?page= 1&layout=datalist&toukei=00250012&tstat= 000001018034&cycle=1&year=20190&month= 12040606&tclass1=000001060399. Accessed 29 Jan 2020, and the figure is compiled and constructed by the author . . . . Changes in the number of foreign residents by prefecture: 1995–2010. (a) 1995. (b) 2010. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

xxvii

. . 213

. . 217

. . 218

. . 220

. . 231

. . 232 . . 236

. . 249

. . 250

xxviii

Fig. 8.6

Fig. 8.7

Fig. 8.8

List of Figures

Changes in the total number of foreign workers in Japan: 1993–2019. Source Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare (MHLW), 1993–2006: Employment Situation of Foreigners (as of June 1st of each year), and 2008–2019: Notification of Foreign Employment Status (as of October 31st of each year). Data are compiled, and figure is drawn by the author . . . . . . . . . 252 Changes in the number of foreign residents in Izumo-shi by nationality: 2006–2019. Source Izumo City Municipal Office (2016, 2020), Shimane Prefectural Office (2019), MIAC (2019a, b). Data are compiled and the figure is drawn by the author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 254 Number of foreign residents in Shimane Prefecture by municipality. (a) 1995. (b) 2010. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255

List of Tables

Table 1.1 Table 1.2 Table 2.1 Table 3.1 Table 3.2 Table 3.3 Table 3.4 Table 3.5

Table 4.1 Table 4.2

Table 4.3 Table 4.4

Table 5.1

Changes and projections (%) for proportions of population by age groups: 1920–2045 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Goki-Shichido (the five home provinces and seven circuits) and provinces . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Projected population increase rates by prefecture: from 2010 to 2040 and from 2015 to 2045 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Relationship between population increase rate and CMR in municipalities by prefecture: 2013 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Increase rates for projected population of municipalities by prefecture from 2010 to 2040 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Increase rates for projected population of municipalities by prefecture from 2015 to 2045 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Proportion (%) of household type by prefecture: 1980 and 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Population increase factors for Tokyo greater metropolitan areas, Aichi, Osaka, Fukuoka, and Okinawa Prefectures: 2016 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Municipal power of Tokyo: Chuo-ku, Hinohara-mura, and Mikurajima-mura . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Tokyo, Chuo-ku, Hinohara-mura, and Mikurajima-mura . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Municipal power of Aichi Prefecture: Nagakute-shi, Tokoname-shi, and Toei-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Aichi, Nagakute-shi, Tokoname-shi, and Toei-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Municipal power of Okinawa: Nakagusuku-son, Tomigusuku-shi, and Zamami-son . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

..

8

..

20

..

44

..

53

..

56

..

60

..

66

..

70

..

79

..

81

..

91

..

94

. . 112

xxix

xxx

Table 5.2

Table 5.3

Table 5.4 Table 5.5 Table 5.6

Table 5.7 Table 5.8 Table 5.9

Table 6.1 Table 6.2

Table 6.3 Table 6.4 Table 6.5

Table 7.1 Table 7.2

Table 7.3 Table 7.4

List of Tables

Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Okinawa Prefecture, Nakagusuku-son, Tomigusuku-shi, and Zamami-son . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Proportions of household type for Japan, Okinawa Prefecture, Nakagusuku-son, Tomigusuku-shi, and Zamami-son: 1985 and 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Proportions of generational households by district in Fukuoka Prefecture: 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Municipal power of Fukuoka Prefecture: Kasuya-machi, Fukuoka-shi, and Toho-mura . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Fukuoka Prefecture, Kasuya-machi, Fukuoka-shi, and Toho-mura . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Proportions of generational households by district in Osaka Prefecture: 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Municipal power of Osaka Prefecture: Osaka-shi, Tajiri-cho, and Nose-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Osaka Prefecture, Osaka-shi, Tajiri-cho and Nose-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Municipal power of Aomori Prefecture: Tsugaru, Nanbu, Oirase-cho, Nishimeya-mura, and Imabetsu-machi . . . . . . . . . Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Aomori Prefecture, Oirase-cho, Nishimeya-mura, Imabetsu-machi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Population changes in Nishimeya-mura by 3-age groups in every 5 year period: 1980–2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Municipal power of Yamagata Prefecture: By region and, Higashine-shi, Yamagata-shi, and Okura-mura . . . . . . . . . . . . Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Yamagata Prefecture, Higashine-shi, Yamagata-shi, Okura-mura . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Municipal power of Shimane Prefecture: By region and, Matsue-shi, Tsuwano-cho, and Ama-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Shimane Prefecture, Matsue-shi, Tsuwano-cho, Ama-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Municipal power of Kochi Prefecture, Kochi-shi, Konan-shi, and Otoyo-cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Kochi Prefecture, Kochi-shi, Konan-shi, Otoyo-cho . .

. . 113

. . 121 . . 126 . . 127

. . 128 . . 140 . . 141

. . 143 . . 160

. . 162 . . 167 . . 176

. . 178 . . 199

. . 201 . . 214 . . 215

Chapter 1

Issues and Theoretical Framework: Japanese Population Decline and Municipal Power/Regional Variations

Abstract In much of the world, country leaders worry that their population may be growing too fast. Not in Japan. Today’s population of 127 million (2015 census) is projected to fall to 99 million by 2050 and 88 million by 2065, using middle-range projections by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSSR 2018a) . Three issues are addressed in this chapter. First, we discussed historical developments and future prospects of population-declining Japanese society at the national level. We tapped on such aspects as the graying of Japan, fertility decline, population pyramid, household types, marriage power, and population-sustaining power. Second, we emphasized the need for analyses through the regional revitalization method based on the census and projection data by municipal level as is emphasized in the Machi-Hito-Shigoto Sousei Hou (Law for Revitalization of Local Regions, People, and Jobs: Regional Empowerment for Japan’s Growth) enacted on December 2, 2014. The law is commonly called Chihou Sousei Hou (Regional RevitalizationLaw). The municipal level population projections for 2040 and 2045 released by IPSSR are the basis of our discussion. Third, the theoretical framework, i.e. reasons for regional variations by municipality in Japan, of the Goki-Shichido (The Five Home Provinces and Seven Circuits), and Provinces under Han dynasties are discussed. The knowledge of the GokiShichido and Provinces will ensure the reader understands the significance of a regional level of analysis in the tiny island nation of Japan, and the cultural heritage which remains in each municipality. Through the above-mentioned three issues, this book elaborates on the significance of municipal power, both positive and negative, inherent in each municipality. It is because, municipal power is one of the most effective counter-measures for population decline, and revitalization

1.1 Population-Declining Japanese Society The population of Japan is shrinking. Although Japan is the tenth largest country in population in 2015, it is the only major nation whose population is on the decline (IPSSR 2018a, Table 1.16). Why? What has changed in Japanese society? © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 F. Kumagai, Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4234-3_1

1

2

1 Issues and Theoretical Framework: Japanese Population Decline …

Throughout the world, people are living longer, but only in Japan, among major nations, is the total population declining. Problems relating to the population decline are as follows: fewer children means fewer workers and a declining gross domestic product; fewer taxes collected and lower payments into pension funds; but pension funds and health care costs are stretched. In addition, many are moving from smaller municipalities into larger cities, bringing instability to both. Some sociologists are even projecting that some small municipalities will disappear. (Matsutani 2009; Matsutani and Fujimasa 2002). We can say that the population decline is the natural consequence of declining fertility and an aging society. First, we need to look at the future of Japan’s declining population as a whole. The prime objective of this study, however, is to analyze population decline from the standpoint of municipal power based on local municipalities. In this chapter, however, it is essential to understand the issue of the population decline in Japan as a whole.

1.1.1 Population Decline in Progress in Japan The 2015 national census displayed the reality of Japan’s aging society (Statistics Bureau 2016), and received a wide range of media attention not only in Japan but also abroad (The Guardian 2016; World Economic Forum 2016; The Washington PostWorld Views 2016; The Conversation 2016; MARKETPLACE 2016; The National Interest 2016). The 2015 national census revealed that, for the first time since the first census in 1920, the total population had declined in the past five years (see Fig. 1.1). The total population of Japan as of October 1, 2015 was 127.11 million, a loss of 947,000 people (minus 0.7%) from the 2010 national census. The population had boomed after World War II in Japan, birth rates jumped 15.3% from 1945 to 1950, mostly owing to the “baby boomers” born during 1947–1949. But then it decreased by 4.7% by 1965. The second “baby boomer” cycle, i.e., children of the first baby boomers, born between 1971 and 1975, hiked the population increase rate to +7.0%. Since then, however, the population increase rate for every five years has continued to decline, falling to −0.7% by the year 2015 (see Fig. 1.1). Among the major nations in the world Japan was the only country whose population increase rate between 2010 and 2015 fell into negative territory. The world average is +6.1% (Statistics Bureau 2016, Table 1.3). The total world population estimates in 2015 by the United Nations was 7.3 billion: China, 1.4 billion; India, 1.3 billion; the U.S.A., 322 million; and Japan, 127 million, 10th largest in the world (United Nations 2017).

1.1 Population-Declining Japanese Society

3

1,40,000

18.0 1,27,110

14.0 Population in 1,000

1,00,000

12.0

10.0

80,000 7.9

60,000

55,963

8.0

7.5

7.1

6.7

7.0 4.7

40,000

3.9

5.2

6.0

5.5 4.6

4.0

3.4 2.1

20,000

1.1

1.6

Increase Rate for 5 Years (%)

16.0

15.3

1,20,000

2.0 1.1

0.7

0.2

0.0

-0.7

0

-2.0 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Population in 1,000

Increase Rate for 5 Years (%)

Fig. 1.1 Changes in Japan’s population and the rate of increase every five years, from census data 1920–2015. Source IPSSR (2018a, Table 1.1). The figures are compiled and constructed by the author

1.1.2 Changes in the Total Fertility Rate, Birth Rate, Death Rate, and Natural Increase Rate According to the latest Japanese vital statistics, the total fertility rate (TFR) in 2015 was 1.46 (MHLW 2017), a slight increase by 0.04 from that of previous year in 2014. It was the highest rate since 1994’s 1.50. It dropped back again, in 2016, to 1.44. Thus, we can hardly say that the declining trend in the fertility rate in Japan has ceased. For the population to climb, it is necessary to have a TFR of 2.08 at the lowest. Japanese TFR statistics were made public for the first time in 1947. It was 4.54 in 1947, and has been on the decline to the lowest by 1.26 in 2005. Since then, it increased to 1.43 in 2013, but it went up and down in the most recent few years. In addition, the total Japanese live births in 2016 were 976,979. For the first time in the Japanese live birth history it was slightly below one million (MHLW 2017). In light of these recent vital statistics we must say that the population decline trend is progressing. Live births to unmarried mothers, or illegitimate children are not yet an accepted norm in Japan. Although the rate for births to unmarried mothers, as part of the total live births, has been on the rise, it is still extremely low (2.29% in 2015, Kumagai 2015: 56, Fig. 3.6) among industrialized nations.1 Although the rate differs drastically by race,2 in the United States as many as 40.2% of all live births in 2014 were out of wedlock (Kumagai 2015; OECD 2014). Recent research on the increasing prevalence of de facto partnerships (Iwasawa 2005; Nishi and Suga 2008; Raymo et al. 2009; Tsuya 2006) may prompt us to say that the second demographic change in Japan is in order. However, it would be premature to say that the pattern of the partnership formation in Japan has shifted to

4

1 Issues and Theoretical Framework: Japanese Population Decline …

the second demographic transition with non-marital cohabitation. It is because the dual structural nature of Japanese society and culture sustains the traditional family culture in the minds of even the young people in Japan today. Upon giving births to their first babies, cohabiting couples are most likely to resolve their cohabiting unions with a traditional marriage (Kumagai 2015: 54–57). From the above-mentioned research results on live births and marriage in recent Japan we might assume that the low fertility rates in Japan today have a simple answer: many men and women are not getting married.3 In fact, the rate for lifetime singlehood, i.e., the rate for Japanese men and women who never married has been on the rise steeply (1970: male 1.7%, female 3.33%; 2015: male 23.37%, female 14.06%). (See also Kumagai 2015: 40, Table 3.1). About one of every four men and one of every seven women never marry, even though most persons want to get married (86% Cabinet Office 2011). There are, however, attempts to change this trend. Programs are emerging which provide opportunities for those who want to get married, to meet members of the opposite sex who feel the same way (Kumagai 2015: 61–62). In light of these current situations, the word kon-katsu (marriage partner-seeking activities) has been popularized ever since Yamada coined the jargon in 2007 (Kumagai 2015; Yamada 2007; Yamada and Shirakawa 2008, 2013). Let us look at the population decline from a somewhat different perspective. The natural population increase rate is derived from the birth rate minus the death rate. For the first time since the Meiji era, the Japanese population increase rate turned negative in 2005, and has continued its decline since (see Fig. 1.2). The total fertility rate (TFR)4 in 2005 was a record low at 1.26, and gradually increased to 1.46 by 2015 40.0 36.2

35.0 32.4

Per 1,000 Population (‰)

30.0

29.0

20.0

28.1

25.4

25.0 20.8

18.8 16.2

15.0 11.6 10.0

17.2

17.2 13.6

12.8

11.8

10.9

10.8

10.0

9.6 7.6

6.9

5.0

7.3 6.2

6.7

9.5 7.7

9.5 8.5

10.4 8.0

3.3 1.8 0.0

1900

1920

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010-1.0

2015-2.3

-5.0

Birth Rate (‰)

Death Rate (‰)

Natural Increase Rate (‰)

Fig. 1.2 Long term changes in birth, death, and natural increase rates (‰) of the Japanese population: 1900–2015. Source IPSSR (2018a, Tables 12–26, 12–27), and MWL (Table 1). The figure is compiled and drawn by the author

1.1 Population-Declining Japanese Society

5

(MHWL 2016a). Nevertheless, the number of live births and the birth rate continue to decline. Together with the increasing trend in the death rate, therefore, there occurs a decline in the natural increase rate. The interrelationship of these measurements clearly indicates the progress of declining fertility and population aging in Japan.

1.1.3 The Graying of Japan: Population Aging Japanese Society The graying of Japan, i.e., an aging population with a declining fertility rate, would probably best describe the Japanese population and society today. The proportion of Japanese 65 and over (28.1% of the total population in 2018) has been increasing at an unprecedented pace. Among them, old-olds of 75 and over in particular have been on the rise dramatically recently (14.2% of the total population in 2018). As a consequence, proportions of other age groups have been declined significantly (child population: 12.2%, working population: 59.7% in 2018) (Statistic Bureau, MIAC 2018c). Only in 1970 did Japan enter the aging society, in which the proportion of older adults 65 and over hit 7% of the total population (see Fig. 1.3). In fact, Japan was one of the latecomers in this regard among the industrialized nations. Other countries became aging societies much earlier than Japan, some as early as the latter half of the nineteenth century (e.g., France in 1864, followed by Norway in 1885, Sweden in 1887, and the United States in 1942) (IPSSR 2018a, Table 2.18; Kumagai 2015). 65+: 1970: 7.1%

1994: 14.0%

2013: 25.1%

2017: 27.7%

2025: 30.0%

2060: 38.1%

100%

90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%

0%

0-14

15-64

65+

Fig. 1.3 Changes in percent distribution of the Japanese population by 3 age groups: 1884–2060. Source IPSSR (2018a, Tables 2.6 and 2.8), and MIAC (2017). The figure is compiled and constructed by the author

6

1 Issues and Theoretical Framework: Japanese Population Decline …

One of the unique features of Japan’s aging society, however, has been its swiftness. Japan experienced a doubling of the aging population in less than a quarter century, by 1994. This was truly unprecedented. No other industrialized nation experienced this rate of change (IPSSR 2018a, Table 2.18, Fig. 1.3).5 Today, however, some Asian nations, such as South Korea, Singapore, and China, launched into the aging society much later than Japan, are projected to double their aging population even quicker than that of Japan (IPSSR 2018a, Table 2.18; Kumagai 2015).6 Japan’s aging population since 1994 has continued to grow. In fact, it became a super-aging society in 2005 when the proportion of older adults exceeded 20% of the total population (see Fig. 1.3). In most Western societies, this will not happen for several years. At present, Japanese older adults 65+ exceed one quarter of the total (28.1% in 2018), and are projected to increase to nearly four out of every ten (38.4%) by 2065 (Statistics Bureau, MIAC 2018c) which will be the world highest among other leading countries.7 The population of children, however, shows a total contrast to its older counterparts, as seen in Fig. 1.3 (IPSSR 2018a). Thus, we are correct to say that the graying of Japan has been in progress at an unprecedented speed where the population is aging and fertility is declining (Kumagai 2015).

1.1.4 Japanese Population Changes Through Population Pyramids Since sometime around the mid-1950s to the mid-1970s, Japanese live births increased gradually. The population pyramid in 1970 shows a star shape where the bottom sections were wide. As discussed earlier, 1970 is the year when Japan launched into the aging society. Thus, the population pyramid of 1970 formed a stable pyramid shape with a wide bottom while narrowing toward the top (see Fig. 1.4a). The number of live births hit its peak in 1973 (2.09 million in total, 1.08 million baby boys, and 1.01 million baby girls), and it declined gradually afterwards. Since then, the shape of the population pyramid became the “guard type” with two bulges, the first baby boomers born between 1947 and 1949 (8.06 million in total), and the second baby boomers (children of the first baby boomers), born between 1971 and 1974 (8.16 million in total) (see Fig. 1.4a). The population pyramid of 1990 did not reveal the aging society of Japan clearly (see Fig. 1.4a). The 2010 counterpart, however, presents a screw type with a significant increase in the older adult population of 65 and over. As time progresses, this proportion accelerates dramatically (26.6% in 2015, 36.1% in 2040) projection (see Figs. 1.3, 1.4b). The population of children (0–14 years of age), on the contrary, exhibits a total contrast to the older adult population of both 65+ and 75+ (see Table 1.1). It has been shrinking rapidly, such that Japan may be rightfully called a super-aging society. Changes in the proportion of three age groups: children, working adults, and older

1.1 Population-Declining Japanese Society (a) 1970. 1990, and 2010: unit in% 1970 Male Female

1990

(b) 2015 and 2040 (projected): unit in 1,000 2015 Male Female 2040 Total M: 6,184.2

Total F: 6,525.3

Male

Male

Total M: 5,158.3

7

Female

2010

Male

Female

Female Total F: 5,569.3 (For 2015 and 2040 units are in 10,000.)

Fig. 1.4 Changes in Japanese population pyramids by sex and five-year groupings: 1970, 1990, 2010, 2015, 2040 (projected). Source For 1970, 1990, and 2010 G-Census Japanese Census Data, and for 2015 and 2040 (projections) IPSSR (2013a). Figures are compiled and constructed by the author

adults 65+, and those 75+, are as follows (National Census, IPSSR 2018a, b). The decline in child population, and incline in older adult population will accelerate in the future. The proportion of older adult population 75+, in particular, will constitute more than one fifth of the total population in less than a quarter century time from now. In contrast, the proportion of both the child and working populations will decline in the future. Since 1972 there exist 47 prefectures in Japan, comprised of one To (Tokyo), one Do (Hokkaido), two Fu’s (Osaka and Kyoto), and the rest of 43 Ken’s (see Fig. 1.5). The major objective in this chapter is to view the present state of population increase and/or decrease by prefecture through the 2015 census results. In other words, to see which prefectures show a population increase or decrease. We do not mean to analyze the reasons for population increase/decrease at this point. Detailed small area analyses by municipality for population increase/decrease will be conducted in later chapters of this book as they are the major theme of this study. According to the 2015 census the prefecture which shows the largest population of the entire 47 prefectures is Tokyo (13.515 million, 10.6% of the total population). The top nine prefectures comprise more than half the total population (68.473 million people, 53.9% of the total Japanese population). The prefecture of Tokyo is followed by Kanagawa, 9.126 million; Osaka, 8.839 million; Aichi, 7.483 million; Saitama, 5.384 million; Chiba, 6.223 million; Hyogo, 5.535 million; Hokkaido, 5.382 million; and Fukuoka, 5.102 million. (see Fig. 1.6). Furthermore, the total population for the greater Tokyo metropolitan area, including Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, and

46.2

48.6

5.2

1.3

0–14

15–64

65+

75+

1.3

5.0

49.4

45.7

1950

1.7

5.7

54.3

40.0

1960

2.1

7.0

60.3

32.7

1970

2.5

7.9

60.5

31.4

1975

3.1

9.1

67.4

23.5

1980

3.9

10.3

68.2

21.5

1985

4.8

12.1

69.7

18.2

1990

5.7

14.6

69.5

16.0

1995

7.1

17.4

68.1

14.6

2000

9.1

20.2

66.1

13.8

2005

Source National Census, and IPSSR (2013, 2018b). Figures are reconstructed by the author

1920

Age Group

Table 1.1 Changes and projections (%) for proportions of population by age groups: 1920–2045

11.1

23.0

63.8

13.2

2010

12.8

26.6

60.7

12.6

2015

14.9

28.9

59.1

12.0

2020

17.8

30.0

58.5

11.5

2025

19.2

31.2

57.7

11.1

2030

19.6

32.8

56.4

10.8

2035

20.2

35.3

53.9

10.8

2040

21.2

36.8

52.5

10.7

2045

8 1 Issues and Theoretical Framework: Japanese Population Decline …

1.1 Population-Declining Japanese Society

9

Fig. 1.5 Regions and prefectures of Japan. Source Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository, https:// commons.wikimedia.org/ wiki/File:Regions_and_Pre fectures_of_Japan_2.svg. Accessed 8, Mar 2020. Labels are added by the author

1,60,00,000

4 3

1,40,00,000

1 0

1,00,00,000

-1 80,00,000 -2 60,00,000

-3 -4

40,00,000

-5 20,00,000

-6 -7 Tokyo Kanagawa Osaka Aichi Saitama Chiba Hyogo Hokkaido Fukuoka Shizuoka Ibaraki Hiroshima Kyoto Miyagi Niigata Nagano Gifu Tochigi Gunmma Okayama Fukushima Mie Kumamoto Kagoshima Okinawa Shiga Yamaguchi Ehime Nagasaki Nara Aomori Iwate Ooita Ishikawa Yamagata Miyazaki Toyama Akita Kagawa Wakayama Yamanashi Saga Fukui Tokushima Kochi Shimane Tottori

0

Japanese Population: 2015

Popuation Increase Rate (%) from 2010

Japanese Population: 2015

2

1,20,00,000

Population Increase Rate(%) from 2010

Fig. 1.6 Japanese population by prefecture in 2015, and increase rates from 2010. Source Statistics Bureau (2016, Table 11.1). The figure is compiled and drawn by the author

Chiba prefectures, adds up to 36.131 million (28.4% of the total) (IPSSR 2018a, Table 12.2). In other words, nearly 30% of the Japanese population is concentrated in these four prefectures, resulting in the situation of the so-called “Ikkyoku Shuchu”

10

1 Issues and Theoretical Framework: Japanese Population Decline …

(centralization of population in Tokyo and neighboring three other prefectures) as seen in Fig. 1.6. Of all the 47 prefectures only eight attained an increase in population from 2010 to 2015. The highest is Okinawa (3.0%), followed by Tokyo (2.7%) and Aichi (1.0%). In addition, no prefecture in the 2015 census turned to an increasing trend from a previously decreasing trend. It should be noted that Osaka for the first time in the history of the national census showed a population decline in2015 (Statistics Bureau 2018c, Table 2.1, and Fig. 1.6).

1.1.5 A Trend Toward More Households Today, the population has been declining while the number of households has been on the rise in Japan. According to the 2015 national census report the total number of households is 53.43 million (+2.8%), an addition of 1.453 million households since 2010. In fact, the total number of Japanese households has been on the rise continuously since 1960. The rate of increase, however, has been on the decline recently (1975–95, 5–7%; 1995–2010, 4.8%; and 2010–2015, 2.8%). The decline in the population has meant a reduction in the average family size. In 1995 the average household size became lower than 3 (2.85) for the first time in Japan. Household size has continued to decline since (2.46 in 2010, and 2.38 in 2015, IPSSR 2018a, b, Statistics Bureau 2016, Table 4.2). Although projections for Japanese households are discussed in detail by IPSSR (2013) the central issue of this study is not on the household itself, but on population changes by municipality. Thus, let us just list four major points relating to the future direction of the Japanese households. First, the total number of households will hit its peak in 2019 (53.07 million), and will decline to 49.56 million by 2035. The average size of every household will decline from 2.42 people in 2010 to 2.20 people by 2035. Second, proportions of household types such as living alone, couple only, and/or single parent and children will increase. Projections for increased rates by the type of household from 2010 to 2035 are as follows: living alone: 32.4% → 37.2%; couple only: 19.8% → 21.2%; single parent and children: 8.7% → 11.4%. Among the living alone household the rate for older adult women 65 and over has consistently been the highest (Kumagai 2015: 140–153). Attrition in the household size is primarily due to an increase in the number of households. The category of married couple and children, for example, which used to represent more than 40% of the total households, will decline from 27.9% in 2010 to 23.3% by 2035. Third, aging of the head of household will progress, as will the proportion of households, headed by persons 65 and over. Projections for heads of household who are 65 and over will increase from 16.20 million (31.2% of the total households) in 2010 to 20.21 million (40.8%) by 2035, and those of 75 and over will increase from 7.31 million (45.1%) in 2010 to 11.74 million (58.1%) by 2035. It is not just the Japanese population that is increasing, but also the aging of households.

1.1 Population-Declining Japanese Society

11

Fourth, of the older adult households 65 and over, those living alone or those single parents with adult children are expected to increase dramatically: living alone, by 1.53 times, from 4.98 million in 2010 to 7.62 million in 2035); and single parents with adult children (1.52 times as many, e.g., from 1.33 million in 2010 to 2.01 million in 2035. Similarly, of the heads of household 75 and over, single parents and adult children will increase as many as 1.97 times (from 0.67 million in 2010 to 1.31 million in 2035), and those of living alone will increase as many as 1.73 times (from 2.69 million in 2010 to 4.66 million in 2035). Naturally, these changes in the household types and their projections also reflect the impact of population-declining society of Japan.

1.1.6 Marriage Power, the Population-Sustaining Power, and Household Type By now it is clear that the population decline in Japan has been caused by the rapidly progressing decline in fertility and increase in the aging of the population. In addition, it has been brought to our attention that there exist clear regional variations in this regard from one municipality to the other. Then, let us analyze why the fertility decline in Japan has become so critical. Changes in the annual population increase rate (%) and marriage rate (‰) from 1900 to 2015 suggest to us that there exists a positive relationship between them (see Fig. 1.7). In fact the Pearson correlation coefficient between these two variables was quite high (r = 0.842; p < 0.001). Furthermore, the regression analysis shows that the marriage rate possesses quite a high impact on the population increase rate. Y (annual population increase rate) = 2.254 + 0.413X (marriage rate), p < 0.001, R2 = 0.679. When we look at the relationship between these two variables by prefecture even stronger interrelationships were observed (r = 0.908; p < 0.001); Y (annual population increase rate) = 3.947 + 0.742X (marriage rate), p < 0.001, R2 = 0.820. The results indicate that more than 80% of the population increase rate is accounted for by the marriage rate by prefecture (see Fig. 1.8). Concern about the strong relationship between the marriage rate and the population increase rate is discussed in detail later in the book (see Sect. 3.3 in this book). In addition to marriage power and population-sustaining power of each municipality, we will also study various factors which might account for the community revitalization. Some examples are household type, i.e., the nuclear family versus the generational family households (Kumagai 2019), and various aspects of socio-economic dimensions of each municipality. As for the indicator for the household type of the municipality in this study we use the nuclear family versus generational family household calculated in the national census (2018a, b). We will discuss in detail on this issue in Chap. 3 of this book.

12

1 Issues and Theoretical Framework: Japanese Population Decline … 4.5

14.0 4.04

4.0 12.0 9.8

3.0

9.8

9.3

9.3 8.7

2.5

7.9

8

8.6

7.9

8.5

8.1

2.13

10.0

10

8.0

2.0

6.7

1.5 1.0

1.23 1.31

6.1

1.53 1.45

0.83

1.42 0.91

0.76

5.9

1.35 1.02 1.08

6.4 5.7

5.5

5.2

6.0

5.3 5.3

5.1 5.1 0.9

4.0

0.67 0.42

0.5 0.0

-0.5

6.4

0.31

0.21 0.13 0.05

-0.2 -0.22-0.17 -0.23 -0.28

1900 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1947 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Annual Population Increase Rate (%)

Marriage Rate (‰)

Annual Population Increase Rate (%)

12

3.5

2.0

0.0

Marriage Rate (‰)

Fig. 1.7 Changes in the annual population increase rate (%) and marriage rate (‰): 1900–2015. Source IPSSR (2017, Tables 1.1, 1.2, 4.1), and MHLW 2016b, Table 2 for 2015 data. The figure is compiled and constructed by the author. Pearson Correlation Coefficient: r = 0.842; p < 0.001; and Regression Analysis: Y (Annual Population Increase Rate) = 2.254 + 0.413X (Marriage Rate); p < 0.001; Adjusted Residual R2 = 0.679 7.00

1.00 5.96

0.68

6.00 Marriage Rate (‰)

0.50 0.42

5.00 4.00

4.15

0.00

3.70

3.00

-0.50

2.00 -1.00 1.00

-1.05

Annual Population Increase Rate (%)

6.50

-1.24 -1.50

Hokkaido Aomori Iwate Miyagi Akita Yamagata Fukushima Ibaraki Tochigi Gunnma Saitama Chiba Tokyo Kanagawa Niigata Toyama Ishikawa Fukui Yamanashi Nagano Gifu Shizuoka Aichi Mie Shiga Kyoto Osaka Hyogo Nara Wakayama Tottori Shimane Okayama Hiroshima Yamaguchi Tokushima Kagawa Ehime Kochi Fukuoka Saga Nagasaki Kumamoto Ooita Miyazaki Kagoshima Okinawa

0.00

Marriage Rate (‰)

Annual Population Increase Rate（％）

Fig. 1.8 Marriage rate (%) and population increase rate (%) by prefecture: 2014. Source e-Stat: Small Area Database: http://www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/chiiki/CommunityProfileTopDispatchAction. do?code=2 (Accessed 8 Sep 2016). The figure is compiled and constructed by the author. The National Average: Marriage Rate = 5.07; Population Increase Rate = −0.17; Correlation Coefficient r = 0.908; p < 0.001; Regression Analysis Y(Population Increase Rate) = 3.947 + 0.742X (Marriage Rate); p < 0.001; Adjusted R2 = 0.820

1.2 Population Decline and Regional Revitalization

13

1.2 Population Decline and Regional Revitalization 1.2.1 Projected Japanese Population in the Year 2040 When we look at the 2015 national census by municipality (1719 municipalities as of October 1, 2015), the great majority (1,416 municipalities, 82.4%) show a population decline, while 303 municipalities (17.6%) showed increments. Municipalities showing population increase are mostly from 23 wards (ku) of Tokyo, Cabinet Designated Cities (seirei shitei toshi),8 and their adjacent municipalities (Statistics Bureau 2016, Table 3.1). The news release on “Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2010–2040” by the Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSSR) on March 27, 2013 gave a significant blow to Japanese society (IPSSR 2013). The report clearly pinpointed the central issues of the declining population of Japanese society today and in the future. Based on the regional population by municipality of 2010 census data, the report made population projections for 2040 for each of the 1,799 municipalities (23 wards in Tokyo, 128 wards in 12 Cabinet Designated Cities, 764 cities, 715 towns, and 169 villages). Since that news release, IPSSR further published a report on the population projections by 2065 (IPSSR 2017, 2018b). In the new report IPSSR projected a decrease in the population decline rate. That is, the Japanese total population in 2065 would be 88.08 million, instead of the 86.74 million by 2060 in the previous prediction of 2013. The Population Division of the Nihon Sosei Kaigi (The Japan Policy Council, a private research organization founded in May of 2011, chaired by former Minister of Internal Affairs and Communication Hiroya Masuda) released the so-called Masuda Report in May 2014 (Masuda 2014) based on the IPSSR’s research report of 2013. One of the central aspects of the Masuda Report is that by the year 2040, 896 municipalities in Japan (49.8% out of 1,799) would disappear, based on the fact that women in the ages between 20 and 39, who are most likely to give birth, are moving out of their municipalities, the “municipalities most likely to disappear.” Among these 896 designated municipalities many are those of depopulated areas such as Minami-Maki village, Gunma Prefecture (the rate for the younger generation of women disappearing would be 89.9%). Surprisingly, however, some municipalities of the Cabinet Designated cities are also included, such as the wards of Toshima-ku in Tokyo (50.8%), Minami-ku in Sapporo city (63.3%), and Hanamigawa-ku in Chiba city (54.1%). The Masuda Report, however, had many defects. To name a few, it only relied on the decreasing numbers of younger women, not taking into account the trend to return to rural regions after the East Japan Great Earthquake of 2011, problems for projections and interpretations, etc. (Hisashige 2010; Odagiri 2014; Iwanami-shoten 2014; Fujiyama 2015; Kinoshita 2015; Iida et al. 2016). It is true that the population decline in Japan is a pressing reality that cannot be avoided. Nevertheless, rural agricultural regions in Japan have long been working

14

1 Issues and Theoretical Framework: Japanese Population Decline …

to solve their problems of depopulation, population decline, fertility decline, and population aging. People in these rural regions and municipalities have developed and implemented revitalization programs unique to their own areas. What is important is to listen to the voices of the people who live in the rural municipalities, and to learn the true state of these rural regions so that we can revitalize these municipalities (Yuuki 2016). If these things could be materialized, such rural regions and municipalities would surely survive, and not disappear. Municipalities might not disappear, but the population decline is real. The proportion of Japanese older adults aged 65 and over in 2015 was 26.6%, and it is projected to jump to as high as 38.4% in half a century by 2065. The Japanese population in 2040 will decrease by 16.2% from that of 2010. Stated more precisely, the population will decline from 127 million in 2010 to 107 million in 2040 (IPSSR 2018b). This is what Japan’s declining population and fertility decline is all about (Kumagai 2016). As we discussed earlier on Table 1.1 the proportion of adults aged 65 and over in Japan by 2040 is projected to exceed one-third of the total population (35.3%). Or, looking at it another way: in 2010, there were 87 municipalities with more than 40% older adults (5.2% of the total). In 30 years, there will be 836 municipalities (49.7%) with more than 40% older adults. Moreover, municipalities with older adults 50% and over (it is called genkai shuraku, depopulated village with most inhabitants being older adults) will increase from 9 (0.5% of the total) in 2010 to 167 (9.9%) in 2040 (Kumagai 2016). Of all the older adults 65 and over, the proportion of the old-olds, those who are 75 and over, was 43.8%. It will increase to as high as 57.3% (IPSSR 2013, and Fig. 1.4). The child population of 0 to 14 years old, on the other hand, will continue to decline. Its proportion in 2010 was 13.2% of the total Japanese population, while it will be 10.8% in 2040. The number of municipalities with child population below the average in 2010 was 192 (11.4% of the total municipalities), and it is projected to increase to as many as 970 (57.6%) in 2040 (see Table 1.1, and IPSSR 2013). The impact on the working population of 15 to 64 years old is serious. In 2010 the labor force consisted of 59.6 million Japanese workers, 63.8% of the total population. In 2040 attrition in the labor force will be by one-quarter of its 2010 counterpart, and is projected to be 44.8 million workers, 53.9% of the total Japanese population (see Table 1.1). This projected sharp decline in the working population is detrimental not only to the Japanese economy as a whole, but also to regional economic activities. By now it is evident that the Japanese population decline will progress rapidly (Statistics Bureau, MIAC 2016c). We must remember, however, that the rate of population decline in Japan is not even, but rather varies significantly from one municipality to the other. In other words, there exist remarkable regional variations throughout Japanese municipalities. These regional variations are found not only among prefectures, but also within the same prefecture itself. We cannot simply say that Japanese rural regions are disappearing. One municipality in a prefecture might show a sharp decline in its population, but another in the same prefecture might present a population increase (see Fig. 1.9).

1.2 Population Decline and Regional Revitalization

15

Fig. 1.9 Population increase rates projection for Japanese population by municipality: 2010–2040. Source IPSSR (2013), and using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author

Take Tokyo Metropolis, for example: Among its 62 municipalities there are genkai shuraku municipalities, mostly in nine island regions, but some are on the mainland such as Okutama-machi, and Hinohara-mura (Kumagai 2016). Tokyo is a big city, with big differences among its smaller municipalities. Each of their population increase rates and municipal capitals differ significantly (see Figs. 1.10a, 1.11a.). In Akita Prefecture, the one experiencing the most acute level of population decline in Japan, there are 25 municipalities altogether today, but with significant cultural and structural variations among these 25 municipalities. The population decline from 2010 to 2040 is −35.6% for Akita Prefecture as a whole, ranging from −54.3% in Koani-mura to −10.0% in Oogata-mura (see Figs. 1.10b, and Kumagai 2016). Similarly, their municipal capitals differ significantly (see Fig. 1.11b). The existence of these regional variations by municipality in Japanese society indicates that the unit of analysis for Japanese society and culture should neither be Japan as a whole, nor prefecture, but instead it should be each municipality. This is the central theoretical framework of the current study.

16

1 Issues and Theoretical Framework: Japanese Population Decline …

(a) Metropolitan Tokyo in 2040 (53, excluding 9 Islands, Municipalities in Total as of 2020)

(b) Projection for Akita Prefecture in 2040 (25 Municipalities in Total)

Fig. 1.10 Examples of projected population increase rates by municipality for Tokyo and Akita 2010–2040. Source IPSSR (2013) and using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020 (a) Rader Chart of Tokyo (Chuo-ku, Mikurajima-mura, Toshima-ku, Hinohara-mura)

(b) Rader Chart of Akita (Ogata-mura, Akita-shi, Kamikoani-mura)

Fig. 1.11 Examples of rader charts by municipality in Tokyo and Akita. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. http://evacva.net/. Accessed 3 Apr 2018. Note Score for “0” indicates that no data is available for the index

1.2 Population Decline and Regional Revitalization

17

1.2.2 Regional Revitalization Law of 2014 Due to declining fertility and population aging Japan is in a critical situation today. Thus, the Machi-Hito-Shigoto Sousei Hou (Law for Revitalization of Local Regions, People, and Jobs: Regional Empowerment for Japan’s Growth) was enacted on December 2, 2014. The law is commonly called Chihou Sousei Hou (Regional Revitalization Law) (Cabinet Office, Government of Japan 2013; Cabinet Secretariat of Japan 2014; Prime Minister’s Office of Japan Prime Ministers Office 2013a, b; Kido 2016). Each municipality is, then, requested to work on policies for materializing this law. The law has four goals: (1) create stable employment opportunities, particularly for young adults 15–34, especially empowering women; (2) attract people into local areas, emphasizing the best use of ICT, as used in modern work places, such as telework and satellite offices; (3) provide communities where married couples can raise families, with help from the community; and (4) encourage cooperation, not competition, among neighboring municipalities. These goals should make it easy for young couples to live and work full-time, with support from the local government. We will discuss how each municipality is deliberating the Regional Revitalization Law in chapters to follow in this book.

1.3 Theoretical Framework for Regional Variations by Municipality When we discuss regional variations of Japanese society it is essential that we pay attention to three central issues. First, what is meant by the term Chiiki? Is it simply a region? Second, what factors contribute to bringing about regional variations? In other words, what are the reasons for regional variations in the small island nation of Japan. Third, what is Chiiki-ryoku (municipal power), which really makes up each municipality including positive and negative characteristics as defined at the onset of Prologue of this book. There are quite a few scholars and researchers who discuss issues relating to Chiiki, such as extinction of regions, regional differences, revitalization of regions, and regional power (Iida et al. 2016; Masuda 2014; Motani 2007). Few, however, discuss the above-mentioned three critical issues in their studies of regional variations in Japan. Before anything else, therefore, let us clarify these three points.

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1.3.1 Chiiki as Region: The Definition of Chiiki Is not Established yet Gamou contends that Chiiki is a form of the structure which contains in quantity and/or in quality a certain regional dispersion (Gamou 1956: 13). Kreiner uses Chiiki as unique characteristics, making diversity of itself (Kreiner 1996: 3). Shimizu defines Chiiki as the qualitative differences of Japanese social structure (Shimizu 2013: 15). Among research articles published in recent years, its definition and interpretation are not uniform yet. One dichotomizes as urban versus rural (Hara 2016), the other interprets it as regional block (Nakamura 2016), and others use prefectures as their unit of analysis (Hara 2011; Hiroshima 2016, Yoshida and Hiroshima 2011). There are scholars who treat region as a small area of municipality, and analyzed their social changes (Ouchi 1996; Hasumi 2012). These last two studies are macroscopic research based on massive observational data. Also, there have been quite a few regional issues in Japan written in English. Of them the anthology by Matanle and Sausch (2011) would be most comprehensive work discussing regional shrinkage under Japan’s national depopulation. Matanle and Sato (2010) analyzed rural depopulation in Japan by a case study of Niigata Prefecture and the Sado Island, and called it a “double-negative population disequilibrium,” whereby both the migratory and natural reproduction population contribution have turned negative. Taking the case study in rural Hongu-cho in Wakayama Prefecture John Knight suggests the new pattern of generational interaction called “koryu” as an effective measure for the revitalization of rural regions (2003). For the revitalization of rural agricultural community Thompson (2003, 2008) studied Towacho in Iwate Prefecture, and found an aggressive development such as “population politics” would be an effective solution. The anthology by Traphagan and Knight (2003) analyzed demographic and ethnographic explanation of how the aging and shrinking Japanese society is affecting the family. Lutzeler (2008) discussed uneven distribution of family and demography in Japan by prefectural level, and have been updated by Kumagai (2008, 2010, 2015) with more recent statistics. The anthology by Assmann (2016) is comprised of 11 chapters tapping on the problem of depopulation in rural communities in northern part of Japan. Through exploring new forms of regional employment, community empowerment, and reverse migration, the authors address potential opportunities and benefits that may help to depopulating sustain rural communities today. All of these references both in Japanese and English cited above adopt regional methods in analyzing the depopulating and shrinking Japanese society. However, many of the communities studied seem to be expediential to researchers themselves, and familiar to them. Such approach is certainly valuable to highlight the significance of studying shrinking regions of Japan by taking the unit of analysis as community and municipal level rather than the traditional methods of analyzing Japan as a whole, or by prefecture. Nevertheless, the author of this book feels strongly that there exists the fatal lack of standardization in the selection process of sample municipalities to

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be studied. In other words, the definition and the standardization of Chiiki is essential for the study of regional revitalization of Japan.

1.3.2 Goki-Shichido (the Five Home Provinces and Seven Circuits), Provinces and Regional Variations in Japan There are historical reasons for the regional variations in this small island country of Japan. Regional divisions of Japan were established for the first time in 701 under the centralized administration called the Ritsuryo system (literally, due to statute). This system divided the area of Japan stretching from Tohoku on the north to Kyushu on the south (excluding Ezo [Hokkaido] to the north and Ryukyu [Okinawa] to the south) into the Goki-Shichido (The Five Home Provinces and Seven Circuits, see Fig. 1.12). The term “Goki” (also called Kinai) referred to the Five Home Provinces surrounding ancient capitals of Nara and Kyoto, which were basically the center of all cultural activities in ancient Japan. “Shichido,” on the other hand, referred to the

Fig. 1.12 Goki-Shichido (Five Regions and Seven National Routes). Source Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Gokishichido.svg. Accessed 8 Mar 2020. Labels are added by the author

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Table 1.2 Goki-Shichido (the five home provinces and seven circuits) and provinces

provinces located along the seven main roads connecting various regions of Japan. They were the Sannyodo, Sannindo, Nankaido, Saikaido, Tokaido, Tosando, and Hokurikudo. Provinces included in each of these Shichido are shown in Fig. 1.12. These Five Home Provinces and seven circuits were subdivided into Kuni (states) in the same geographical area were combined into circuits (do, see Fig. 1.12, Table 1.2), Gun (counties), and Sato (villages). After further consolidations of these regions and municipalities, the centralized Japanese administrative divisions from Tohoku to Kyushu were finalized into Rokujyuu Ro-Kokku and Ni-to (66 states and 2 islands-Iki-island, Tsushima-island) in 824 (Kumagai 2011, 2015, see Table 1.2 and Fig. 1.13) As seen in Table 1.2, and Fig. 1.13 we recognize many of these provinces are still in use in present day Japan. It indicates that impacts of sociocultural characteristics of provincial days may likely to be operating in each municipality today. Sociocultural differences within the same prefecture today are the result of these provincial divisions. These divisions lasted for more than a millennium until the end of the Edo/Tokugawa Shogunate. The Edo Shogunate had been characterized by a dual structure called Baku-Han Taisei: Baku or Bakufu means the central government of the Edo Shogunate, and Han represents the local feudal domain headed by the feudal lord. Although the exact number of Han in the 19th century is not known, it is widely believed that there were about 270 traditional feudal domains by the end of the Edo Shogunate (Shiba 1994, 153). Each domain had its own traditions and culture, which became ingrained into the citizens and society. The characteristics of each feudal domain were unique, as they developed independently of each other (Asai 2007: 31; Shiba 1994, 153).

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Fig. 1.13 Map of Japan in provinces in time of the Tokugawa era. Source Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Japan_in_Provinces_in_ time_of_Iyeyasu.jpg. Accessed 8 Mar 2020

The second attempt to unify the country was the so-called “Second Meiji Restoration” of Haihan Chiken (dissolution of feudal domains and establishment of prefectures), which was enforced in August 1871 (Amino 1997: 150; Asai 2007: 14–31; Jansen 2000: 348; Kumagai 2011: 21–26; Kumagai 2015: 5–7). After the Meiji Restoration in 1868, the new government under the Meiji Emperor enforced Haihan Chiken in 1871. At that time Japan’s centralized system became San-pu Sanbyakuni-ken (3 Fu’s and 302 prefectures), based on each of the feudal domains. It is natural to believe, therefore, that these newly established 302 prefectures were identical to the former feudal domains. After further consolidation of these 302 prefectures in several stages, the administrative divisions of Japan were reduced by 1880 to a total of 46 prefectures, three of which were Fu (Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto) (Kumagai 2011, 2015). Today, there are 47 prefectures in Japan; Okinawa was returned to Japan from U.S. control in 1972. Therefore, it has been less than 50 years since the administrative divisions of Japan have been organized as 47 prefectures, comprised of one To (Tokyo), one Do (Hokkaido), two Fu’s (Osaka and Kyoto), and 43 other prefectures (as shown in Fig. 1.5). The feudal domain system has a long history. Today’s prefectures have a short history. One would expect the feudal domain system would have a deep effect on today’s society, culture, and personality (Kumagai 2011, 2015). Knowledge of these provinces and main roads are of utmost importance for understanding Japanese regional society and culture. Smiths of Japanese swords,

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for example, moved from one area to another over the Shichido, bringing traditions developed in one province to another. Understanding of this historical background, therefore, is essential to a full knowledge not only of the characteristics of work from a certain region, but of the connections between works of different regions (Nagayama 2017: 3). This characteristic of cultural diffusion becomes apparent in studying Japanese population today, where even within a single prefecture there exist distinctively different characteristics from one area (or district) to the other. Some examples of well-known prefectures containing multiple numbers of area characteristics are Aomori, Yamagata, Nagano, Shizuoka, Aichi, Hiroshima, and Fukuoka Prefectures (Kumagai 2011, 2015). Thus, it would be most appropriate to take the Goki-Shichido and Provinces as the theoretical framework of our study of municipal power and regional revitalization in Japanese population.

1.3.3 Japanese Municipalities and Local Governments Throughout the above-mentioned historical process Japanese municipalities (local governments), were brought about. Furthermore, in the modern history of Japan, the three so-called Great Mergers of municipalities should be noted. They are, namely the Great Mergers of Meiji,9 Showa,10 and Heisei. Going through the process of these three Great Mergers the total number of municipalities in Japan was reduced from 71,314 in the Meiji era to the present day of 1,718 as of October 2016 when the most recent merger of municipalities was enforced (MIAC 2016a). The Great Heisei Merger is the one which reduced the total number of municipalities by nearly half. In March 1999 there were 3,232 municipalities in total: 670-shi (city), 1,994-cho/machi (town), and 568-son/mura (village). It was reduced, however, to 1,728 municipalities: 786-shi, 757-cho/machi, and 185-mura/son by March 2010. Today, as of October 2019, the total number of Japanese municipalities is 1,724 (792-shi, 743-cho/machi, and 189-son/mura) (e-Stat 2019). The Great Merger of Heisei was pursued to revitalize regional municipalities. We wonder if that has ever been achieved. To answer this question, it is necessary to understand the socioeconomic situation at that time. These characteristics are three-fold. First, there existed acute differences in the financial situations of each municipality. Since 1955 Japan has achieved an unprecedentedly high economic growth. As a consequence, the centralization of political and economic institutions in the Tokyo metropolis progressed rapidly. In rural regions, on the other hand, depopulation and increases in the aging population were accelerated, and some became the so-called genkai shuraku discussed earlier. On top of that, the collapse of the bubble economy brought about a prolonged economic slump in Japan. Then, the Japanese economic situation further deteriorated in the economic downturn precipitated by the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy in 2008.

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Second, we observe a rapid increase in the declining fertility rates and the aging population. Due to the diversification of the people’s lifestyle regional municipalities are at risk. In other words, local governments are being forced to spend more with less money. Third, local municipalities were facing their own financial crises. The prolonged period of economic slowdown resulted in the attrition in tax revenue of local governments. Due to these socioeconomic situations, the Japanese government forced municipalities to merge, in hopes of shaving administrative costs. In other words, by merging municipalities it was hoped to strengthen the functions of local government. More specifically, the merged municipalities were to bring improvements by the following three functions. First, with fertility decline and a smaller, aging population, revenues must decline, too. But the needs for public services increase. Under these circumstances, it is necessary to merge local populations so that a municipal government could extend a certain level of services to its people. Second, owing to the development in the transportation sector, the living area of the people has been widened. Consequently, services to be extended by a municipality become more diverse in scope than they used to be. Hence, there emerges a need for merging municipalities. Third, as the national and local governments face financial crises, effectiveness in administrative functions must be considered. The merging of municipalities could be the answer. Furthermore, public facilities could be reorganized so that a number of municipalities could use them collaboratively. However, some demerits for merging municipalities in three areas should be noted. First, demerits in the area of political issues should be noted. That is, due to the municipal merging the psychological distance between the administration and the people might be widened. Or, the size of the municipality might assign the power difference among the municipalities merged together. Furthermore, deterioration in municipality services might be expected when the number of administrative staff is curtailed (Horiuchi 2009; Imai 2010). Second, demerits relating to economic areas must be considered. Municipality merging may likely result in deterioration of the local economy due to the so-called “straw phenomenon” where human beings, goods, funds etc. are sucked in like using straws. Thus, in some cases of municipality-merging, economic deterioration in the area worsened (Okada 2014). Third, we must note the demerit of municipality-merging in cultural aspects. That is, culture, history, and traditional events inherent in each municipality might become difficult to sustain, or even disappear. In short, municipality merging must be pursued in light of keeping the municipal bond of the local people. In other words, the essence of the municipality is based on the local people who reside there. They are the ones who make the municipality, and will revitalize it if anyone does.

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1.4 Municipal Power 1.4.1 Needs for Analyzing Population Decline by Municipality The unit of analysis in this study, therefore, is the municipality, a small area within the prefecture. That is because within a single prefecture there exists a wide range of regional variations including socioeconomic characteristics, and the personality of the people within. As stated earlier, prefectures were based in part on the old feudal domain structure. Although the domains were dissolved by Haihan Chiken (Dissolution of Domains and Establishment of Prefectures), the new prefectures retained many of the social and cultural characteristics of the past. Even prefectures adjacent to each other could have different socioeconomic patterns. These characteristics could be called “chiikiryoku” (literally meaning regional power/strength including both pros and cons of regional characteristics) (Hara 2018; Kumagai 2011, 2015, 2018; Miyanishi 1986, 2004). Both positive and negative traits in a municipality could help bond the people within. This is clearly different from the regular sense of social capital (Kumagai 2011, 2015); even negative characteristics can provide municipality solutions. Thus, the issue of population decline in Japan may suggest some unique measures for handling the issue in each municipality (Kumagai 2011: 3–26, 2015: 101). According to Miyanishi (1986, 2004), who coined the term, there are three elements in municipal power: the accumulation of municipal capital, including hard aspects of environmental conditions, and soft aspects of municipal organizations, and activities of the people within the municipality; the autonomy of the municipality, which enables the people to share the issues to be solved in light of their bonding; and the people’s interest in the municipality in which they reside. These people are strongly concerned about the municipal environment, and are most willing to improve the municipality to settle down there. These interests of the people will lead to municipal planning or regional participation awareness. Thus, these three elements of the municipal power combined together results in the chien, the autonomous relationships of the people within, their cooperation and organization as well. Consequently, the chien among the regional people further develops into strong bonding and chiikiryoku, including both positive and negative characteristics of the municipality as discussed earlier. This study, therefore, attempts to analyze the issue of the regional revitalization in the population-declining Japanese society through the perspective of the chiiki-ryoku. More concretely, we pay close attention to and highlight both the positive and negative characteristics of each municipality. We aim to attain the regional revitalization by making the best use of, or overcoming these municipal characteristics.

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1.4.2 Analyzing Regional Revitalizations Through Municipal Power By now, we have come to realize that there are wide ranges of regional variations in marriage power and population-sustaining power. We need to study in which municipalities marriages take place frequently, what factors facilitate people to get married, and what municipal power facilitates the population-sustaining power increase. These considerations will lead to an increase in the regional population-sustaining power, and revitalization in the long run. One solution could be the construction of municipal buildings where young people move in to meet potential marriage partners. Municipal building cannot be materialized solely by economic development. The municipal power, the essence for the betterment of each municipality, has never been uniform throughout Japan. It is the very element inherent to each municipality. For the revitalization of each municipality, therefore, it is the utmost importance to understand the power of each municipality. In this study we say the regional “revitalization,” (saisei) rather than “innovation” (sousei) as has been popularized in Japan. Mr. Shigeru Ishiba, a member of the House of Representatives, states that it is no longer possible to achieve revitalization of municipalities by getting works from public sectors, and/or attracting businesses, so the word “innovation” came out (Ishiba 2017). Our use of “revitalization” is based on our research results that there are quite a few disappearing municipalities being revitalized by the most effective use of ICT (Information and Communication Technology) available in the ongoing information society. “Revitalization” is distinctively different from the state of “innovation.” The former has a connotation that the municipality which was once “disappearing” is now being revitalized. The latter, on the other hand, may refer to having totally new municipalities from the scratch, at least to this researcher. For this reason, this study pays close attention to municipal power like marriage power, household type, and population-sustaining power which could be regarded as revitalizing municipalities throughout various prefectures and regions in Japan. In selecting municipalities to be investigated, we pay close attention to the Goki-Shichido and local Provinces as they are the theoretical framework of regional variations in our study. To propose countermeasures against the population-declining Japanese society, it is essential to look at municipal power, both positive and negative in nature, inherent to each municipality. The municipal marriage power revealed to be one of the most significant factors which account for the population sustaining power in each municipality. However, there seem to be factors which hinder married couples from having children, such as household finances, and the burdens of nurturing and rearing children. This is why municipal power becomes important for revitalizing and reconstructing the population declining municipalities. We will discuss in detail the

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significance and the importance of municipal power to revitalize population declining municipalities in Japanese society in Chaps. 4–8. Notes 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6. 7.

8.

9.

Rates (%) for illegitimate live births of major industrial nations in 2008 were as follows: Sweden: 54.7; France: 52.6; Denmark: 46.2; the UK: 43.7; the Netherlands: 41.2; the USA: 40.6; Iceland: 32.7; Germany: 32.1; Spain: 31.7; Canada: 27.3; Italy: 17.7; Hong Kong: 5.6; Japan: 2.1 (OECD 2014, Chap. 3: General Context Indicators). The US national average in 2012 was 40.7; for whites: 35.7; for African Americans: 71.8; Native Americans: 65.8; Hispanics 52.6, Asians or Pacific Islanders: 16.9. When we look at statistics by state in 2012 there exist significant regional variations with Utah the lowest at 18.7. States with high rates were Mississippi: 54.7; Louisiana: 53.2; and New Mexico: 52.1) (US Census Bureau 2012, Tables 86 and 89) (CDC 2013, Table 1.1) (United Nations, Population Division 2017). The rate for lifetime singlehood is derived from the national census conducted by the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication. The rate is derived by the median of the 45–49 and 50–54 age brackets (IPSSR 2018a, Table 6.23). The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children a woman would have if she survived all her childbearing (or reproductive) years, from age 15 to 49 (https://www.populationeducation.org/content/what-total-fertility-rate). Examples of “a doubling of the aging population” of some other industrialized nations are as follows: France (114 years: 1864–1978), Norway (92 years: 1885– 1977), Sweden (85 years: 1887–1972), the United States (72 years: 1942–2014), Canada (65 years: 1945–2010), the United Kingdom (46 years: 1929–1975), and Germany (40 years: 1932–1972). South Korea (19 years: 1999–2018), Singapore (22 years: 1999–2021), and China (26 years: 2001–2027). The world average of the proportion of older adults 65 and over in 2065 would be 18.3%, and the highest proportion of Japan would be followed by 37.7% in South Korea, followed by 32.8% in Italy, 31.8% in Germany, 30.3% in China, 27.6% in Canada, 27.1% in France, 26.9% in the United Kingdom, and 24.4% in the United States (United Nations, Population Division. 2017; Statistics Bureau 2018c). Cabinet Designated Cities (Seirei Shitei Toshi) in Japan are those with more than 500,000 population. As of October 1, 2017 there are 20: Sapporo, Sendai, Saitama, Chiba, Yokohama, Kawasaki, Sagamihara, Niigata, Shizuoka, Hamamatsu, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka, Sakai, Kobe, Okayama, Hiroshima, Kitakyushu, Fukuoka, and Kumamoto. In 1888 (Meiji 21) the total number of municipalities in Japan was 71,314. These municipalities were merged based on the number of households, approximately 300 to 500 households per each municipality. Consequently, the total number

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of municipalities was reduced by one-fifth, to 15,859 municipalities in 1889. This process in the Meiji era is called the Great Merger of Meiji (MIAC 2016a, b). 10. Similar to the Great Merger of Meiji, what was conducted in the Showa era is called as the Great Merger of Showa. That is, in October 1953 (Showa 28) there were 9,868 municipalities in total in Japan. To make the administrative affairs effective it was necessary to reduce the number of municipalities throughout Japan by about one-third. Then, each town and/or village was reorganized based on a population unit of approximately 8,000. Then, by 1961 the total number of municipalities was reduced to 3,472. This is called the Great Merger of Showa (MIAC 2016a, b).

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the implications of the one village, one product movement]. Keizai Chiri Gaku Nenpou [Annual Review of Economic Geography], 62, 306–323. Kinoshita, A. (2015). Kasegu Machi ga Chihou wo Kaeru [Municipalities Earn Lots Change Community]. Tokyo: NHK Publications. Knight, J. (2003). Repopulating the village? Chapter 6. In J. W. Traphagan, & J. Knight (Eds.), Demographic change and the family in Japan’s aging society. Albany, NY: SUNY Press. Kreiner, J. (Ed.) (1996). Chiikisei kara Mita Nihon [Japan through Regional Approach]. Tokyo: Shinyou-sha. Kumagai, F. (2008). Families in Japan: Changes, continuities, and regional variations. Lanham: University Press of America Inc. Kumagai, F. (2010). Forty years of family change in Japan: A society experiencing population aging and declining fertility. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, 36(4), 581–607. Kumagai, F. (2011). Nihon no Chien to Chiikiryoku [Municipal Bond and Municipal power in Japan]. (Edited and authored by Kumagai Fumie, and with Yagihashi Hirotoshi and Ishiguro Taeko as contributors for a chapter each.). Kyoro: Minerva-shobo. Kumagai, F. (2015). Family issues on marriage, divorce, and older adults in Japan: With special attention to regional variations. Singapore: Springer Nature. Kumagai, F. (2016). Konninn to jinkou genshou no chiikisei [For the cases of Aomori, Akita, Tokyo, and Okinawa prefectures]. (Outstanding Performance Award). ESTRELA, No.265 (April), 58–60. Kumagai, F. (2018). Chiikiryoku de Tachimukau Jinkou Genshou Shakai: Chiisana Jichitai no Chiiki Saisei Saku [Declining Population and the Municipal Power in Japan: Policies for Area Revitalization of Small Municipalities.] Kyoto: Minerva-shobo. Kumagai, F. (2019). Stem family. In D. Gu & M. E. Dupre (Eds.). Encyclopedia of gerontology and population aging. https://link.springer.com/referenceworkentry/10.1007/978–3-319-698922_325-2. Accessed 16 Oct 2019. Lutzeler, R. (2008). Regional demographics, Chapter 4. In F. Coulmas, H. Conrad, A. SchadSeifert, & G. Vogt (Eds.), The demographic challenge: A handbook about Japan (pp. 61–79). Brill: Lieden, The Netherlands. MARKETPLACE. (2016). Japan’s population is plunging, so where are the babies? 20 Apr 2016. Web edition. https://www.marketplace.org/2016/04/20/babies/. Accessed 15 Sept 2016. Matanle, P., Rausch, A. S., with the Shrinking Regions Research Group. (2011). Japan’s Shringing Regions in the 21st century: Contemporary responses to depopulation and socioeconomic decline. Amherst, NY: Cambria Press. Matanle, P., & Sato, Y. (2010). Coming soon to a city near you! Learning to live ‘beyond growth’ in Japan’s shrinking regions. Social Science Japan Journal, 13(2), 187–210. Masuda, H. (Ed.) (2014). Chihou Shoumetsu [Disappearing Local Regions]. Tokyo: Chukoushinsho. Matsutani, A. (2009). Jinkou Ryudo no Chihou Saiseigaku [Changing Population and Study of Regional Variations]. Tokyo: Japan Economic Journal Publishing. Matsutani, A., & Fujimasa, I. (2002). Jinkou Genshou Shakai no Sekkei [Planning for the Population Declining Society]. Tokyo: Chuko Shinsho. Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare [MHLW]. (2017). Heisei 28-nen Jinko Doutai Toukei Geppo Nenkei: Gaisuu no Gaikyou [Vital statistics of 2016-summaries]. (Published on June 5). http://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/geppo/nengai16/dl/gaikyou28.pdf. Accessed 5 June 2017. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2016a). Shichouson gappei shiryoushuMeiji to Showa no daigappei no tokuchou oyobi shichouson-suu no suii [Characteristic of Great Mergers of Meiji and Showa, and changes in the number of municipalities]. http://www.soumu. go.jp/gapei/gapei2.html. Accessed 20 Oct 2016. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2016b). Shichouson no Suiihyou (Shosaiban) [Changes in the number of municipalities-Detailed list] published on October 10. http://www.soumu.go.jp/main_content/000283329.pdf. Accessed 20 Oct 2016.

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Miyanishi, Y. (1986). Chiiki-ryoku wo takameru koto ga machizukuri-Jumin no chikara to shigaichi seibi [Increasing regional power results in the construction of the township: Power of the municipality people and the construction of the town]. Toshi Keikaku [Urban Planning], 143, 25-33. Miyanishi, Y. (2004). Chiiki-ryoku wo takameru koto ga machizukuri ni tsunagaru [Increasing regional power leads to the construction of the township]. Toshi Keikaku [Urban Planning], 247, 72–75. Motani, K. (2007). Jissoku Nippon no Chiikiryoku [Observational Research of Japanese Regional Powers]. Tokyo: Nihon Keizai Shinbun-sha. Nagayama, K. (2017). The connoisseur’s book of Japanese Swords. Tokyo: Kodansha International. Nakamura, M. (2016). Chiiki burokku nai ni okeru shusshouritsu no chigai: Toyama to Fukui no hikaku kara [Why regional fertility differs in Japan: How Fukui manages to have higher fertility rates than Toyama]. Japanese Journal of Family Sociology, 28(1), 26–42 The National Interest. (2016). Japan’s greatest challenge (and it’s not china): massive population decline. May 16, 2016. Web edition. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/japans-greatestchallenge-its-not-china-massive-population-16212. Accessed 15 Sept 2016. Nishi, F., & Suga, M. (2008). Hi-shinzoku no danjyo no doukyo no saikin no jyoukyou [Recent trends in cohabitation between non-family related man and woman in Japan]. Toukei [Statistics] 49–55. Odagiri, T. (2014). Iwanami-Shoten, (2014). Nousanson wa Shoumetsu Shinai [Rural Municipalities Will Never Disappear]. Tokyo: Iwanami-shoten. OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development). (2014). OECD health statistics 2014, families and children database. http://www.oecd.org/els/family/database.htm. Accessed 23 Apr 2017. Okada, T. (2014). Saranaru sentaku to shuuchu wa chihou toshi no suitai wo kasoku saseru [Furthering choices and concentrations would accelerate the deterioration of provincial cities]. Sekai (The World), October issue, 64–73. Ouchi, T. (1996). Sengo Nihon no Chiikishakai Hendou to Chiikishakai Ruikei: To-Do-Fu-Ken ShiChou-Son wo Tanni tosuru Toukei Bunseki wo Tooshite [Social Changes and Social Community Models of Post-War Japan: Statistical Analyses based on Prefectural and Municipal Levels of Analyses]. Tokyo: Toshin-do Publishing. Prime Minister’s Office. (2013a). Press conference of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on September 3. http://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/96_abe/statement/2014/0903kaiken.html. Accessed 18 Sept 2016. Prime Minister’s Office. (2013b). Website on Machi-Hito-Shigoto Sousei [Creation of the municipality, people, and job]. https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/headline/chihou_sousei/. Raymo, J. M., Iwasawa, M., & Bumpass, L. (2009). Cohabitation and family formation in Japan. Demography, 46(4), 785–803. Shiba, R. (1994). Meiji toiu Kokka, Jyo-kan [Meiji, A Nation State of Japan, Vol. 1]. Tokyo: NHK: Japan Broadcasting Corporation Publishing. Shimizu, H. (2013). Koureika Shakai Nihon no Kazoku to Kaigo: Chiiki kara no Sekkin [Families and Care in Population Aging Japanese Society: Through a Regional Perspective]. Tokyo: Jicho-sha. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2016). Heisei 27-nen kokuseichosa kekka: Jinkou-Zenkoku, To-Do-Fu-Ken, shi-cho-son betsu jinkou oyobi setaisuu [Results of 2015 national census: Population and household Japanese total, by prefecture, and by municipality]. Released on February 26, 2016. http://www.stat.go.jp/data/kokusei/2015/kekka/ pdf/gaiyou.pdf. Accessed 21 June 2016. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018a). Toukei de miru To-do-fu-ken no sugta [Statistical Observations of Prefectures: 2018]. Released on February 16, 2018. http://www.stat.go.jp/data/k-sugata/index.html. Accessed 8 Aug 2018. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018b). Toukei de miru shi-ku-cho-son no sugta [Statistical Observations of Municipalities: 2018]. Released on June 22, 2018. http://www.stat.go.jp/data/s-sugata/index.html. Accessed 8 Aug 2018. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018c). Toukei kara mita wagakuni no koureisha-keirounohi ni chinande [Japanese Older Adults through Statistics:

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On the Respect for the Aged Day], Statistics Topics No.113. Released on September 16, 2018. http://www.stat.go.jp/data/topics/topi1130.html. Accessed 18 Sept 2018. Thompson, C. S. (2003). Depopulation in rural Japan: “Population politics” in Towa-cho. Chapter 5. In J. W. Traphagan & J. Knight (Eds.), Demographic change and the family in Japan’s aging society (pp. 89–104). Albany, NY: SUNY Press. Thompson, C. S. (2008). Population decline, municipal amalgamation, and the politics of folk performance preservation in Northeast Japan, Chapter 19. In F. Coulmas, H. Conrad, A. SchadSeifert, & G. Vogt (Eds.), The demographic challenge: A handbook about Japan (pp. 361–386). Brill: Lieden, The Netherlands. Traphagan, J. W., & Knight, J. (Eds.). (2003). Demographic change and the family in Japan’s aging society. Albany, NY: SUNY Press. Tsuya, N. (2006). Wagakuni ni okeru kazoku keisei no pataan to youin [Patterns and correlates of partnership formation in Japan]. Jinkou Mondai Kenkyu [Journal of Population Problems], 63(1–2), 1–19. United Nations, Population Division. (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. https://population.un.org/wpp/. Accessed 18 Sept 2018. The Washington Post (2016). World View; It’s official: Japan’s population is dramatically shrinking. Friday 26 February 2015. Web edition. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/ 2016/02/26/its-official-japans-population-is-drastically-shrinking/. Accessed 15 Sept 2016. World Economic Forum. (2016). Japan’s population is shrinking: What does it mean for the economy? 26 Feb 2015. Web edition. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/02/japans-popula tion-is-shrinking-what-does-it-mean-for-the-economy/. Accessed 15 Sept 2016. Yamada, M. (2007). Kekkon shitainara Konkatsu no susume [Should you desire to get married why don’t you do Konkattsu?] in AERA of the 5th of November issue. Tokyo: Asahi Shimbun-sha. Yamada, M., & Shirakawa, M. (2008). Konkkatsu Jidai [Era of Konkkatsu]. Tokyo: Discover Keisho. Yamada, M., & Shirakawa, M. (2013). Konkattsu Shoko Gun [Konkattsu Syndrome]. Tokyo: Discover Keisho. Yoshida, Y., & Hiroshima, K. (2011). Jinkougenshou JIdai no Chiiki Seisaku [Regional Policies in the Era of Population Decline]. Jinkougaku raiburari 9 (Lib rary of Demography, Vol. 9). Tokyo: Hara-shobou. Yuuki, T. (2016). Jibuntachi no chiiki wo kangaeteiru ookina hinto ni [A hint for constructing one’s own municipality]. BIG Interview-chiiki zukuri he no teigen (Suggestions for constructing one’s own municipality). http://www.nhk.or.jp/chiiki-blog/900/241195.html. Accessed 19 Sept 2016.

Chapter 2

Methodology

Abstract The proposed study analyzed small area open data, seeking to revitalize regional communities. Through close analyses of the statistical data of municipalities which show high rates of population increase, we hope to identify contributing factors and find positive social capital. On the other hand, municipalities with a high rate of population decline can seek the negative social capital which created the population deterioration. In other words, identifying municipal social capital is the essential task for the study of Japanese population decline. The second method is the use of small area statistics on demography, such as household type, marriage power, and population-sustaining power. With the small area data in hand, the study presented visualization of municipal data by such software as G-Census (mapping, graphs, population pyramid) (G-Census in Toukei GIS Software G-Census G-Census 2016), and EvaCva radar charts (EvaCva in Fujitsu Social Science Laboratory, Ltd EvaCva 2014). Through these visualizing statistical tools it is possible to understand the regional distributions of population decline in Japan clearly. With these understandings, we can make suggestions for counter-measures and revitalization of each municipality and community. In selecting municipalities for detailed studies, we paid close attention to the Goki-Shichido and Provinces. It is because significant sociocultural variations within a single prefecture are believed to be caused by these historical developments in Japan. Consequently, the study enables us to understand regional diversities and variations by municipality within the same prefecture using such indicators as population-sustaining power, marriage power, household type, and others. It surely enhances our understanding of municipal power for each municipality, both positive and negative. Eventually, it leads us to propose measures for regional revitalization in each of the municipalities in Japan.

This study intends to analyze the rapidly declining Japanese population through small area open data by prefecture and by municipality. Two things should be noted on the methodology of this study: we analyzed open data, and small area data as well. In the study of regional variation it has been usually the case to set the unit of analysis as a regional block, and/or prefecture. Contrary to those longstanding practices this study uses open data of municipalities in each prefecture. In doing so it is possible to highlight the diverse pattern of population decline in Japan, and © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 F. Kumagai, Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4234-3_2

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to validate the fact that the nature of each municipality varies dramatically from one small area to the other within the same prefecture. Consequently, measures for population decline are not uniform but vary with each municipality. Thus, let us discuss these two kinds of data, open and small area.

2.1 Open Data Recently, people frequently talk about “open data” and “big data.” Big data is so voluminous that it could not be analyzed by ordinary computer software. The purpose for big data is to add values for corporate operations by solving socio-economic issues (MIAC 2012; Suzuki 2011). In this study, however, we do not use “big data,” but only open data.

2.1.1 The Definition of Open Data The concept of open data has its origin in the Open Knowledge Foundation (currently called Open Knowledge International) founded in May 2004 in Cambridge, U.K. by Rufus Pollock (Open Knowledge International 2016). Its Japan branch, OKJP: Open Knowledge Japan, was founded in July 2012 (Open Knowledge Japan 2016). Needs for the usage of open data are well-explained in the objectives for establishing OKJP. First of all, however, it is essential to understand what is meant by “open.” The Open Definition of the Open Knowledge International goes as follows: “Open data and content can be freely used, modified, and shared by anyone for any purpose” (Open Knowledge International 2016). The essential nature of open data is threefold: (1) Anyone can access the data and download it via the internet, being in an open format for public use; (2) the data should be reusable and redistributable; and (3) the data can be used, reused, and redistributed by anyone without regard to the purpose, race, and/or organization.

2.1.2 Interoperability of Open Data The essence of open data rests upon its interoperability, so that various systems and organizations could cooperate on a project. The interoperability of open data allows the combination of various data sets and their components. The key to the public usage rests upon the interoperability of one open data to the other, leading to excellent products and services.

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2.1.3 Significance of Open Data Open data, especially those of governmental organizations, are invaluable sources of information. Regrettably, however, many are not utilized to a full extent. The volume of the data collected is massive and important, but not used fully. The governmental data are legal official use, and should be available and open for public use. The significance of open data could be summarized into three points (Prime Minister’s Office 2012). First, when the data are made available for secondary use the people are able to analyze the governmental policies to make their own judgments. Consequently, the transparency and trustworthiness to the governmental administration will be enhanced. Second, when open data are used by all walks of people and various organizations, cooperation between the people and the administration will hopefully develop. Then, various public services will be made available in accord to the rapid development of Information and Communication Technology: ICT. Third, secondary use of open data revitalizes economic activities, facilitates the emergence of venture business, and contributes to the Japanese economy as a whole. Consequently, the operational efficiency is improved, and upgrading is attained.

2.1.4 Five Steps of Open Data and the Data Format As discussed earlier (2.1.1) the format of open data should be computer friendly, and must be available for secondary use. For these reasons, the ease of reading data, and copy-write restrictions determine the degree of its openness. This idea comes from the “Five-Star Linked Open Data,” proposed by Sir Tim Berners-Lee (2006), the inventor of the WWW (World Wide Web). Open data for this study would mainly be the third stage in Fig. 2.1. In other words, data are made public, and the formats are those available for public use in the XML and/or CSV formats. Nevertheless, in most cases the original data are modified, and processed to meet the objectives of the researcher, as has been done in the present study. When open data was made available for public use, the major research area of the present researcher, i.e., regional variations of Japanese society, benefited significantly. The availability of the small area data made it clear in identifying municipal resources, both positive and negative in nature. Prior to the time when open data via the Internet became available, the benefits derived from small area data could never be imagined. Through close analyses of small area statistical data at the municipal level, we can identify contributing factors and positive social capital for areas which show a high rate of population decrease. The municipality with a high rate of population decline can clarify the negative social capital which yields the deterioration. In other words, to know and identify municipal social capital is the essential task for the

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Available on the web (whatever format) but with an open licence, to be Open Data Available as machine-readable structured data (e.g. excel instead of image scan of a table) as (2) plus non-proprietary format (e.g. CSV (comma-separated values) instead of excel) All the above plus, Use open standards from W3C (RDF (Resource Description and SPARQL) to identify things, so that people can point at your stuff Framework)

All the above, plus: Link your data to other people’s data to provide context (Linked Open Data)

Fig. 2.1 Five star open data. Source Berners-Lee (2006)

study of Japanese population decline. If and only if we have municipal social capital, both positive and negative, can we propose and implement countermeasures for the revitalization of each municipality.

2.1.5 Open Data for the Current Study The second characteristic of the data to be used for the current study is that of the small area data. Thus, from governmental open data sources we will analyze the following area statistical data (for URLs of each data source refer to References at the end of this chapter): • e-Stat “Profiles of Prefectures and Municipalities-Cities, Towns, and Villages” (2018a, b, c, d, e) • e-Stat “Database by Municipality (Cities, Towns, and Villages)” (2018a, b, c, d, e) • e-Stat “Small Area Statistics (by Prefecture, City, Town, Village, Street, and Address) of the 2015 National Census” (2018a, b, c, d, e) • “Population, Vital Statistics, and Household from the Basic Resident Register” (MIAC 2015) • “Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2010–2040” (IPSSR 2013). • “Results of 2015 national census: Population and household-Japanese total, by prefecture, and by municipality” (Statistics Bureau, MIAC 2018a, b, c, d) • “Population Projection of Japan: 2015–2065” (IPSSR 2017) • “Latest demographic statistics of 2018” (IPSSR 2018a) • “Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2015–2045” (IPSSR 2018b).

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It is truly remarkable that these open data have been made available for public use. We are certain that results of these open data analyses by researchers from various fields will contribute to solutions for all aspects of people’s lives, and to help implement policies.

2.2 Small Area Statistics Data on Demography The second point of characteristics of the current study is the use of small area statistics data on demography. With the small area data in hand, the study conducts multiple regression analyses and visualization of municipal data by such software as G-Census1 (mapping, graphs, population pyramid) (G-Census 2016), and radar charts by EvaCva2 (EvaCva 2014). Through these statistical tools it is possible to visualize the regional distributions of the population decline in Japan clearly. With these understandings in hand, we can make suggestions for counter-measurements for each municipality and community. Population increase/decrease rates for each municipality were adopted from the “Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2010–2040” (IPSSR 2013), and “Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2015–2045” (IPSSR 2018b). Let us discuss analytical methods adopted in this study in detail.

2.2.1 The 18 Variables Which Seem to Affect the Population Increase Rates The first methodological step for this study was to derive variables which seem to affect population-declining rates by prefecture using prefectural data from the regional statistical database. These variables were used for correlation analyses and multiple regression analyses with the population-declining rates of each prefecture. These data analyses were conducted between October and December 2015. At that time, the most recent statistics available were those for 2010, 2012, and 2013 (Kumagai 2016; Statistics Bureau, MIAC 2016). The major issue for the current study is to consider reasons for the population decline at the municipal level. However, we derived 18 variables by prefecture, but not by municipality. There are two reasons for this: First, it is feasible to analyze 18 variables simultaneously for 47 prefectures, but not for 1725 municipalities. Thus, we derived 18 variables by prefecture. Second, using these 18 variables, detailed analyses for each prefecture was conducted. This type of two-stage analytical methodology was feasible to adopt for the current study.

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It must be noted, however, that there are 684 indicators for each prefecture, but only 43 of them for each municipality. And, therefore, it was necessary to apply secondary processing for deriving the municipal data and variables. Followings are the above-mentioned 18 variables for each prefecture classified into one of six categories: Variables for Population and Household: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11)

The proportion (%) of child population under 15 years of age in 2013 The proportion (%) of working population 15–64 years of age in 2013 The proportion (%) of older adult population 65 and over in 2013 The annual population increase rate (%) in 2013 The total fertility rate (TFR) in 2013 The proportion (%) of nuclear family households in 2010 The proportion (%) of living alone households in 2010 The proportion (%) of elderly couples living alone households in 2010 The proportion (%) of elderly living alone households in 2010 The crude marriage rate (CMR) per 1,000 Japanese population (‰) in 20133 The crude divorce rate (CDR) per 1,000 Japanese population (‰) in 2013

Variable for Economic Indicator: (12) Prefectural revenue per person (in 1,000 yen) in 2011 Variables for Administrative Indicators: (13) Financial indicators for prefecture in 2012 (14) The proportion (%) of child welfare finance of the total prefectural finance in 2012 (15) The proportion (%) of educational finance of the total prefectural finance in 2012 Variable for Education Indicators (16) The number of nurseries per 100,000 children, ages 0–5 years old, in 2012 Variable for Security (17) Number of penal code offenses per 1,000 population in 2012 Variable for Household Economy (18) Monthly revenue (in 1,000 yen) for the household head of working households in 2013. Of these 18 variables the independent variable for the study is (4), “the annual population increase rate (%) in 2013”, and the rest are dependent variables. Both the Pearson correlation and multiple regression analyses for these 18 variables for the Japan average, and for each prefecture were conducted. Then, it is found that the most significant dependent variable for the population increase rate is (10), “the crude

2.2 Small Area Statistics Data on Demography

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marriage rate (CMR) per 1,000 population (‰) in 2013.” The result of regression analyses by prefecture is as follows (Kumagai 2016): Y (The population increase rate in 2013) = 3.624 + 0.661X (CMR in 2013). P < 0.001, r = 0.884, Adjusted R2 = 0.778 It is found that the variance explained is nearly 80% (0.778). Therefore, analyses for CMR and factors which affect it by municipality are required in this study. However, as it has been discussed in the previous chapter (1.8.1) the relationship between the CMR and the population increase rate cannot be said to be simply causal. That is, demographically speaking, we cannot assume a high CMR in the municipality causes the population to increase (Hara 2018). Then, how should we interpret the high interrelationship between the CMR and the population increase rate in the municipality? The CMR could be interpreted simply as the “marriage power” of the municipality, while the population increase rate, could be taken as the “populationsustaining power” of the community. In other words, we interpret the marriage power as the possibility for marriage among the total population in the municipality. In other words, when the population ages, then a marriage is unlikely to take place. As a result, the birth rate lowers because no family is feasible. Consequently, the generational transfer in the municipality is tapered to lower the population-sustaining power. It is likely that the CMR is also correlated with such other factors as the age structure, income, economic strength, migration, etc. It alone, however, is most strongly correlated with the population increase rate. Stated differently, marriage power is taken as the best indicator for the population growth. As the illegitimate childbirth rate is extremely low in Japan (Kumagai 2008, 2015), if there is no marriage, there is no childbirth, and the population aging will follow, and therefore, the natural population decline will continue. Furthermore, most of the population migration in Japan occurs during the time of receiving the higher education, employment, and marriage among the people of younger generation. Thus, if there are not enough young people in the community it is unlikely that marriage will occur, and the population decline will progress, In other words, marriage is the product of the intertwinement of these two factors, and therefore, where the marriage is unlikely there will be the population decline.

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2.2.2 Changes in the Population Increase Rate (%) and CMR (‰) by Prefecture (1) Changes in the Population Increase Rate (%): 1970–1990–2015 Looking at changes in the population increase rates by prefecture in 1970, 1990, and 2015, we can immediately recognize that prefectures in dark shadings of high population increase rates diminish to increasingly lighter colors of low population increase rates, as the years pass. For the sake of easy comparison, graph legends are set the same for these three graphs. (see Fig. 2.2). Although the degree of the population changes by prefecture differs overall population decline has been rapidly in progress throughout Japan. It is hoped that differences in degree by prefecture will be highlighted explicitly by analyzing the small area data by municipality. In other words, differences in the population decrease rate will become clear not only by prefecture, but also by municipality within the very same prefecture itself. For the detailed results of these analyses, please refer to the chapters which follow. (2) Changes in the Crude Marriage Rates (‰): 1970–1990–2015 Overall outlook of CMR (‰, marriages per 1,000 population) by prefecture in 1970 is in dark tone in color, in other words CMRs are relatively high throughout Japan. As the years progress in 1990 and 2015, prefectures in dark color diminish to lighter ones, i.e. CMRs by prefecture are getting lower. As same as the population increase rates, graph legends for changes in CMR are set the same for these three graphs. Thus, comparisons across these three years can be made easily (see Fig. 2.3). It is quickly noticed that the CMR throughout Japan rapidly declines despite the differences in its degree by prefecture. Such differences by prefecture will hopefully be highlighted explicitly when analyzing the small area data by municipality. In other words, differences in CMR will become clearer not only by prefecture, but also by municipality within the very same prefecture itself. For the detailed results of these analyses, please refer to the chapters which follow.

2.2.3 The Population Increase Rate and CMR by Municipality: 2013 The most updated data available when the analyses for this project started were those of 2013. Moreover, in deriving these variables it was necessary to recalculate several data from the basic resident register. Statistical data used is “Demographic and household statistics for the basic resident register as of January 1, 2014” (MIAC 2014). Especially, we made references to the following two statistical tables in this basic resident register:

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(a)

(b)

(c)

Fig. 2.2 Changes in the annual population increase rate (%) by prefecture: 1970–1990–2015 (a) 1965–1970 (Average = 1.08; Highest = 5.10 ‧Saitama; Lowest = −1.38 ‧Kagoshima), (b) 1985–1990 (Average = 0.42; Highest = 1.78 ‧Saitama; Lowest = −0.55 ‧Aomori), (c) 2010– 2015 (Average = −0.15; Highest = 0.58‧Okinawa; Lowest = −1.19 ‧Akita). Source IPSSR (2017), Table 12.3. The figures are compiled and constructed by the author

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(a)

(b)

(c)

Fig. 2.3 Changes in the crude marriage rate (‰) by prefecture: 1970–1990–2015 (a) 1970 (Average = 10.0; Highest = 12.5 ‧Osaka; Lowest = 6.4 ‧Kagoshima), (b) 1990 (Average = 5.9; Highest = 7.0 ‧Tokyo; Lowest = 4.5 ‧Shimane), (c) 2015 (Average = 5.1; Highest = 6.6 ‧Tokyo; Lowest = 3.5 ‧Akita). Source Statistics Bureau, MIAC (2016), Table 9.2. The figures are compiled and constructed by the author

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43

• Total Population: The basic resident register of population including foreign residents, household, and vital statistics for 2013 by municipality. • Japanese Population: The basic resident register of population, household, and vital statistics for 2013 by municipality. Based on these databases we derived increase rates of population and CMR for all the 1,725 municipalities in 2013. Then, these data were registered to GIS Statistical Software G-Census to derive population increase rate and CMR for each prefecture and each municipality as well. Afterwards, regression analyses for the population increase rate (dependent variable) by CMR (independent variable) for each prefecture, and municipalities within the prefecture were conducted. Consequently, in many of the 47 prefectures, it is found that municipal CMR has significant impact on determining the population increase rate. For more details, refer to the chapters which follow.

2.3 Projections for Japanese Population Increase Rates by Prefecture and by Municipality in 2040 and 2045 Using the Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2010–2040 (IPSSR 2013), registered in the G-Census GIS software, we calculated the population increase rates for the year 2040 (against 2010 census data) for each prefecture and for 1725 municipalities as well. It is astonishing to find that the population will decrease in all 47 prefectures in 2040 (on an average of 16.2%). Based on the 2015 census results the Regional Population Projections for Japan 2015–2045 (IPSSR 2018b) were published as open data for 1798 municipalities.4 Unfortunately, however, this newer version of projections for population increase/decrease rates for the year 2045 had not been synchronized to the G-Census GIS software and/or the EvaCva. Thus, we are confined to the IPSSR 2013 data, and not to the IPSSR 2018 one, for the G-Census and/or the EvaCva graphic presentations. The average population increase rate for all the 47 prefectures in 2045 is projected to 16.1%, a very minimal difference from the 2040 counterpart (−16.2%). The rank order correlation between the 2040 and the 2045 projected data for all the 47 prefectures was 0.929. Thus, it would be correct to discuss in detail on the population projections data based on either one of the two open data. Thus, our discussion will be based on the 2010 open data rather than those of 2015.

44

2 Methodology

2.3.1 Top Ten Prefectures with High Population Increase Rate Projections in 2040 and 2045 (in Descending Order of Population Increase Rate) Top 10 prefectures for the high population increase rate projections in 2040 and 2045, in descending order of the population increase rate, are found in Table 2.1. For the location of each prefecture, refer to Fig. 1.5 in Chap. 1. Kyoto Prefecture, ninth on the 2040 list was eliminated from the detailed analyses and discussion. The reason for deleting Kyoto Prefecture is that adjacent prefectures such as the mega prefecture, Osaka, and little Shiga already highlight the diversity of Japanese society. In fact, Kyoto no longer is listed on the 2045 group. Thus, we will analyze the remaining nine prefectures for low population-declining rates in the chapters to follow. Table 2.1 Projected population increase rates by prefecture: from 2010 to 2040 and from 2015 to 2045 a. From 2010 to 2040

b. From 2015 to 2045 2010–2040

Rank

Prefecture

Rate (%)

2015–2045 Rank

Prefecture

Rate (%)

1

Okinawa

1.7

1

Tokyo

2

Tokyo

6.5

2

Okinawa

3

Shiga

7.2

3

Aichi

7.8

4

Aichi

7.5

4

Kanagawa

8.9

5

Kanagawa

7.8

5

Saitama

6

Saitama

12.4

6

Shiga

10.6

7

Fukuoka

13.7

7

Fukuoka

10.7

8

Chiba

13.8

8

Chiba

12.2

9

Kyoto

15.6

9

Hiroshima

14.6

10

Osaka

15.9

10

Okayama

15.7

40

Tokushima

27.3

40

Yamanashi

28.3

41

Shimane

27.4

41

Wakayama

28.6

42

Wakayama

28.2

42

Tokushima

29.2

43

Yamagata

15.6

43

Iwate

30.9

44

Iwate

29.5

44

Yamagata

31.6

45

Kochi

29.8

45

Kochi

31.6

46

Aomori

32.1

46

Aomori

37.0

47

Akita

35.6

47

Akita

41.2

0.7 0.4

10.2

Source IPSSR, Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSSR] 2013 and 2018b. The table is calculated and constructed by the author

2.3 Projections for Japanese Population Increase Rates …

45

2.3.2 Bottom Eight Prefectures with High Population Decrease Rate Projections in 2040 and 2045 (i.e., Prefectures Ranked at the 40th to the 47th) The reason for deciding to analyze eight prefectures of highly declining populations is that Fukushima (−26.8% for 2040, −31.3% for 2045) is expected to rank ninth in 2040 and fifth in 2045, respectively. The IPSSR projections for 2040 are based on the 2010 national census data and do not reflect the turbulent fluctuations after the East Japan Great Earthquake of March 11, 2011 which hit most severely in Fukushima Prefecture. Thus, we will analyze eight prefectures below Fukushima for high population-declining rates in the chapters to follow. GIS small area maps for each of the 47 prefectures were drawn and analyzed using the G-Census software, and EvaCva radar charts. A map for the small area data allows us to grasp the area differences and variations within the same prefecture easily (see Figs. 2.4 and 2.5, however in Fig. 2.4a and b names for the municipalities are not shown). We will analyze and discuss small areas in these 17 prefectures, in which nine have low population decline rates, and eight have high population decline rates. In principle, we will pick the top two low population-decline rate municipalities to check if there is a difference in variation, and one high population-decline rate municipality in each of these 17 prefectures. Consequently, it would be possible to understand the regional diversities and variations by municipality within the same prefecture on such indicators as the population increase rate, the marriage rate, and others. It would enhance our understanding on the community resources for each municipality, both positive and negative in nature. Eventually, it will lead us to propose countermeasures for the population decline in each of the municipalities in Japan. For the results of analyses, please refer to the chapters which follow. We must say, however, we analyze nine out of the above mentioned 17 prefectures in detail. Once we started our analyses with the above plan, we obtained sufficient knowledge from nine prefectures analyzed, more than half of the 17 prefectures mentioned. Thus, we decided to stop analyzing the remaining eight prefectures. Prefectures analyzed in detail in the chapters to follow are Tokyo, Aichi (in Chap. 4), Okinawa, Fukuoka, Osaka (in Chap. 5), Aomori, Yamagata (in Chap. 6), Shimane, and Kochi (in Chap. 7).

2.4 Municipal Challenges in Innovative Community Building Besides the above-mentioned prefectures for detailed analyses we will also analyze municipalities which show significantly high population increase rate forecasts in 2040 to find explanations for population increases.

46

2 Methodology

(a)

(b)

Fig. 2.4 Examples of projected population increase rates by municipality for Tokyo and Akita: 2010–2040. (a) Tokyo in 2040 (53, excluding 9 Islands, municipalities in total as of 2020), (b) projection for Akita Prefecture in 2040 (25 municipalities in total). Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-cen sus.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020

2.4 Municipal Challenges in Innovative Community Building

47

(a)

(b)

Fig. 2.5 Examples of radar charts by municipality in Tokyo and Akita (a) rader chart of Tokyo (Chuo-ku, Mikurajima-mura, Toshima-ku, Hinohara-mura), (b) rader chart of Akita (Ogata-mura, Akita-shi, Kamikoani-mura). Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. http://evacva.net/. Accessed 3 Apr 2018. Note: Score for “0” indicates that no data is available for the index

In addition to the detailed analysis of the nine prefectures and three local municipalities described above, we will select and analyze notable local municipalities in terms of Municipal Challenges in Innovative Community throughout the country. In fact, many of these municipalities analyzed are found that their population increase rates are high. At the same time, we will study in detail municipalities that propose new types of communities by taking advantage of various ICT technologies. We

48

2 Methodology

feel these attempts will enable us to point out issues to be resolved, and policies to be implemented for the revitalization of municipalities in the population-declining Japanese society. We will attempt to visualize these various statistical data by municipality through the use of such tools as the GIS G-Census statistical maps, population pyramids, and EvaCva radar charts. Notes 1. G-Census is a statistical GIS software based on various open data such as the national census, prefecture, and small area like municipality (city, ward, town, and village), and community. For more details, please refer to the following website: http://www.g-census.jp/. 2. EvaCva is a statistical software (developed by Fujitsu Social Science Laboratory, Ltd.) which visualizes open statistical data on economics, social lives, and environmental indicators of 184 indexes in total. For more details, please refer to the following website: http://www.fujitsu.com/jp/group/ssl/products/software/ applications/website/evacva-plus/index.html. 3. Both CMR and CDR in this study were based on those of Japanese population, calculated by the author. In other words, both male and female partners were Japanese, not including those of non-Japanese residents of either one of the partners. 4. The reason that the total number of municipalities for the IPSSR 2018 Regional Population Projections is set at is 1798 is as follows: Due to the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 no municipalities in Fukushima Prefecture were counted. Instead, Fukushima Prefecture was treated by itself. Thus, 1798 municipalities consists of 23 wards in Tokyo and 128 wards in other cities (Statistics by ward were only available in 12 of 20 cities designated by cabinet), 766 cities, 713 towns, and 168 villages. The 12 cities designated by cabinet whose ward level data were available were Sapporo, Sendai, Chiba, Yokohama, Kawasaki, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka, Kobe, Hiroshima, Kita-Kyushu, and Fukuoka. The longitudinal data for population projections for the remaining eight designated cities (Niigata, Saitama, Sagamihara, Shizuoka, Hamamatsu, Sakai, Okayama, and Kumamoto) were not available. Therefore, the data for these eight cities do not include ward data.

References Berners-Lee, T. (2006). Linked Data. https://www.w3.org/DesignIssues/LinkedData.html. Accessed 22 Feb 2018. EvaCva (2014). Fujitsu Social Science Laboratory, Ltd. Oopun deeta niyoru chiikitokusei no hakkenn [Discover Area Capitals via Open Data]. http://evacva.net/. Accessed 23 May 2014. G-Census (2016). Statistical Information Institute Consulting and Analysis (Sinfonica). Toukei GIS Software G-Census [GIS Statistical Software G-Census]. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 23 May 2014.

References

49

Hara, T. (2018). Review comments on F. Kumagai’s book publication in 2018 (personal correspondence on August 15). Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSSR]. (2013) Nihon no Chiikibetsu Shourai Suikei Jinko: Heisei 22-Heisei 52 [Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2010–2040]. Population Research Series No.330, December 25. http://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/bunken/data/pdf/ 208521.pdf. Accessed 13 Nov 2017. Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSSR]. (2017). Nihon no Jinkou Shourai Suikei: Heisei 27-Heisei 77 [Population Projection of Japan: 2015–2065]. Released on 10 April 2017. http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-zenkoku/j/zenkoku2017/pp_zenkoku2017.asp. Accessed 22 Apr 2017. Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSSR]. (2018a). Jinkou Toukei Shiryoushuu: 2018 [Latest Demographic Statistics of 2018]. http://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/tohkei/Popular/ Popular2018.asp?chap=0. Accessed 22 Mar 2017. Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSSR]. (2018b) Nihon no Chiikibetsu Shourai Suikei Jinko: Heisei 27-Heisei 57 [Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2015–2045]. http:// www.ipss.go.jp/pp-shicyoson/j/shicyoson18/t-page.asp. Accessed 31 Mar 2018. Kumagai, F. (2008). Families in Japan: Changes, continuities, and regional variations. Lanham, Maryland: University Press of America. Kumagai, F. (2015). Family Issues on Marriage, Divorce, and Older Adults in Japan: With special attention to regional variations. Singapore: Springer Nature. Kumagai, F. (2016). Konninn to jinkou genshou no chiikisei: For the cases of Aomori, Akita, Tokyo, and Okinawa prefectures]. (Outstanding Performance Award). ESTRELA, (265), 58–60. (April). Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2012) Heisei 24-nen ban jyohou tsushin hakusho [White Paper on Information Technology and Communication for the Fiscal Year 2012]. http://www.soumu.go.jp/johotsusintokei/whitepaper/ja/h24/pdf/index.html. Accessed 25 Sept 2016. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2014) Heisei 26-nen jyumin kihondaichou ni motozuku jinkou, jinkoudoutai, oyobi setaisuu [Demographic and Household Statistics for the Basic Resident Register as of 1 Jan 2014]. http://www.soumu.go.jp/menu_news/s-news/ 01gyosei02_02000062.html. Accessed 25 Sept 2016. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2015). Heisei 28-nen jumin kihondaicho ni motozuku jinkou, kinkoudoutai, oyobi setaisuu [Demographic and Household Statistics of the Basic Resident Register as of Jan 2015]. http://www.soumu.go.jp/menu_news/s-news/01gyos ei02_02000122.html. Accessed 28 Sept 2016. Open Knowledge International. (2016). https://okfn.org/. Accessed 25 Sept 2016. Open Knowledge Japan. (2016). http://okfn.jp/. Accessed 21 Nov 2016. Prime Ministers Office. (2012). Denshi Gyosei Oopun Senryaku [E-Government open data strategy]. http://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/it2/pdf/120704_siryou2.pdf and http://www.kantei. go.jp/jp/singi/it2/pdf/120704_gaiyou.pdf. Accessed 26 Sept 2016. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2016). Heisei 27-nen kokuseichosa jinkou tou kihon shuukei kekka no gaiyou [Summary of the basic demographic statistics of the 2010 national census]. Released on 26 Oct 2016. http://www.stat.go.jp/data/kok usei/2015/kekka/pdf/gaiyou.pdf. Accessed 28 Oct 2016. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018a). e-Stat Todo-fu-ken no sugata, shi-ku-chou-son no sugata [Statistics by Prefecture, and Statistics by Municipality]. http://www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/chiiki/Welcome.do. Accessed 26 Sept 2018. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018b). Heisei 27-nen kokuseichosa kekka: Jinkou-Zenkoku, To-Do-Fu-Ken, shi-cho-son betsu jinkou oyobi setaisuu [Results of 2015 National Census: Population and Household-Japanese Total, by Prefecture, and by Municipality]. Released on 26 Feb 2016. http://www.stat.go.jp/data/kokusei/2015/kekka/pdf/ gaiyou.pdf. Accessed 21 June 2018.

50

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Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018c). Toukei de miru To-do-fu-ken no sugta [Statistical Observations of Prefectures: 2018]. Released on 16 Feb 2018. http://www.stat.go.jp/data/k-sugata/index.html. Accessed 8 Aug 2018. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018d). Toukei de miru shi-ku-cho-son no sugta [Statistical Observations of Municipalities: 2018]. Released on 22 June 2018. http://www.stat.go.jp/data/s-sugata/index.html. Accessed 8 Aug 2018. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018e). Toukei kara mita wagakuni no koureisha-keirounohi ni chinande [Japanese Older Adults through Statistics: On the Respect for the Aged Day], Statistics Topics No.113. Released on 16 Sept 2018. http:// www.stat.go.jp/data/topics/topi1130.html. Accessed 18 Sept 2018. Suzuki, R. (2011). Biggu Bijinesu no Jidai [The Era of Big Business]. Tokyo: Shouei-sha.

Chapter 3

Population-Sustaining Power and Marriage Power by Prefecture and by Municipality

Abstract Three issues were studied in this chapter. First, we identified the relationship between population increase rates and crude marriage rates (CRD) by prefecture and by municipality in 2013. A high relationship between the CMR and population increase rate in municipalities, means the CMR is interpreted as the “marriage power” of the municipality, while the population increase rate is taken as the “populationsustaining power” of the community. In other words, we interpret marriage power as the possibility for marriage among the total population in the municipality. If the population ages, then marriages are less likely, the birth rate lowers and the generational transfer in the municipality is tapered to lower the population sustaining power. We used the nuclear family vs. the generational family households in small area open data. These contrasting household types are taken to imply distinctive cultural differences between southwestern and northeastern regions of Japan respectively. We examined variations within the same prefecture which might be accounted for the provincial differences of the Goki-Shichido. Second, projected population increase rates from 2010 to 2040 by prefecture and by municipality were studied. Recently IPSSR released similar projection data for every five years from 2015 to 2045 (IPSSR in Nihon no Chiikibetsu Shourai Suikei Jinko: Heisei 27-Heisei 57 IPSSR 2018b). Regrettably, however, the data have not been incorporated with the G-Census or EvaCva open database (G-Census in Statistical Information Institute Consulting and Analysis (Sinfonica) G-Census 2016; EvaCva 2018). Thus, our analyses focused on the projected data for 2040, and incorporated those of 2045 whenever possible. In identifying regions where population-sustaining power is strong or weak, we paid close attention to differences in the Goki-Shichido and Provinces. Third, the question arises as to the popular notion that Japan’s population is centralized in Tokyo. Instead, we would say that the population concentration occurs in large cities, four core regions and eight prefectures (including Okinawa). Besides the greater metropolitan Tokyo region (including Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba), population tends to settle in the regions of Aichi, Osaka, Fukuoka, and Okinawa Prefectures. Our analyses confirmed this population concentration tendency for these eight prefectures.

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 F. Kumagai, Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4234-3_3

51

52

3 Population-Sustaining Power and Marriage Power by Prefecture …

The analysis and discussion in Chaps. 1 and 2 have convinced us that population decline in Japan is inevitable and we must confront it. Before examining in detail population decline by municipality, let us discuss three issues in this chapter. (1) Population increase rates and crude marriage rates (CRD) by prefecture and by municipality in 2013. (2) Projected population increases for 2040 compared to 2010 by prefecture and by municipality. (3) The issue of population centralization in Tokyo.

3.1 Population Increase Rates and Crude Marriage Rates (CRD) by Prefecture and Municipality in 2013 In Chap. 1 of this book we identified the causal relationship between the marriage rate (CMR) and the population increase rate for all Japan and by prefecture (Sect. 1.7.2, and Figs. 1.7 and 1.8). We showed, not surprisingly, that the CMR is one of the most significant factors in Japan’s population decline. It is not only true for an extended period of Japanese history for the population as a whole, but also at the prefectural level. The more people who marry, the more children there are, and the higher the population. It’s been true for 110 years. Is it also true at the municipal level? In analyzing CMRs and annual population increase rates for all municipalities in Japan in 2013, it was necessary to calculate each value from the most recent basic resident register available when the calculation was conducted (Statistics Bureau 2015). Upon calculating these values, the data were formatted to register onto the G-Census software. It was a laborious but necessary task for correlation and multiple regression analyses. In addition, the G-Census program was used for GPS mapping, and constructing a population pyramid, and so was the EvaCva for radar charts by municipal level of analyses. For detailed discussion on both the G-Census (2016) and the EvaCva (2018), please refer to Chap. 2 of this book. In an attempt to identify major factors for the annual population increase rate of municipality we have conducted multiple-correlation analyses with 17 variables, including such indicators as household type, demographic factors, economic situation, administrative standing, education, and security. Then, CMR is found as one of the most significant indicators for the population growth of the municipality. For detailed discussion of these 18 indicators please refer to Sect. 2.2.1 in this book. There were 1,727 municipalities (786 cities, 757 towns, and 184 villages) as of January 1, 2014 when the data were obtained. Data were analyzed by prefecture and municipality within the relevant prefecture. Results are shown in Table 3.1. It should be noted, however, the table shows the results only for the top ten prefectures (Table 3.1a), and the bottom ten prefectures (Table 3.1b). Looking at two sub-tables in Table 3.1 four major points should be noted. First, the rank order correlation coefficient between the top ten prefectures in 2013 (Tokyo, Okinawa, Aichi, Kanagawa, Saitama, Fukuoka, Shiga, Chiba, Osaka, and Ibaraki in

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2

1

4

5

6

7

3

8

10

17

47

46

45

44

43

42

41

40

39

38

47

46

43

45

42

41

40

44

33

27

Nara

Hokkaido

Iwate

Tokushima

Shimane

Wakayama

Kochi

Yamagata

Aomori

Akita

Prefecture

Ibaraki

Osaka

Chiba

Shiga

Fukuoka

Saitama

Kanagawa

Aichi

Okinawa

Tokyo

Prefecture

39

179

33

24

19

30

34

35

40

25

Numbers of municipality

44

43

54

19

60

63

33

54

41

62

Numbers of municipality

4.13 4.84 4.41

−0.69 −0.54 −0.48

4.24

4.59

−0.80

4.41

4.34

−0.91 −0.77

4.14

−0.96

−0.76

3.62 4.20

−1.23 −1.02

CMR (‰)

5.60 4.87

−0.08 −0.44

Municipal average of population increase rates (%)

5.34 5.11

0.03

5.57

5.06

5.57

5.81

6.12

6.88

CMR (‰)

−0.05

0.04

0.13

0.13

0.16

0.42

0.53

Municipal average of population increase rates (%)

0.017*

0.180***

0.491***

0.394***

0.013

0.022*

0.060***

0.278***

0.362***

0.162***

Adjusted R2 (for CMR)

0.426***

0.552***

0.400***

0.250**

0.208***

0.539***

0.519***

0.408***

0.126

0.435***

Adjusted R2 (for CMR)

0.132

0.430

0.711

0.648

0.116

0.149

0.296

0.546

0.616

0.444

Multiple correlation coefficient

0.663

0.747

0.640

0.538

0.468

0.738

0.726

0.668

0.385

0.666

Multiple correlation coefficient

Source Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018a, b). Data are compiled and registered to G-Census by the author. Note Tokyo includes 23 special wards. Variables used for the multiple regression analyses other than CMR refer to Sect. 2.2.1 of this book. *p < 0.01, **p < 0.001, ***p < 0.0001

2013

2040

Rank order of population increase rate

b. Bottom 10 prefectures: 2013

2013

2040

Rank order of population increase rate

a. Top 10 prefectures: 2013

Table 3.1 Relationship between population increase rate and CMR in municipalities by prefecture: 2013

3.1 Population Increase Rates and Crude Marriage Rates (CRD) … 53

54

3 Population-Sustaining Power and Marriage Power by Prefecture …

Table 3.1a) and those for 2040 estimates is significantly high (r = 0.84, p < 0.001). The bottom ten prefectures found in Table 3.1b, on the other hand, are prefectures whose population decrease rates are high (Akita, Aomori, Yamagata, Kochi, Wakayama, Shimane, Tokushima, and Nagasaki). Their rank order correlation coefficient with those for 2040 estimates is also significantly high (r = 0.83, P < 0.001). Furthermore, the estimates for all 47 prefectures in 2040 and in 2045, is significantly high (r = 0.93, p < 0.001). These findings indicate that when we know prefectural rankings for annual population increase rates in 2013, we can estimate those for 2040 and 2045 respectively with a high significance level. Second, there are only two prefectures in 2013 with positive population increase rates, Tokyo (0.53%) and Okinawa (0.42%) (see Table 3.1a). Although positive, their annual population increase rates are less than 1%. We can see that the population decline had already begun by then. Third, prefectures whose annual population increase rates in 2013 were comparably high tend to show relatively high marriage rates. It is also true that they show relatively high multiple correlation coefficients and therefore the proportion of variance explained is high. Similarly, prefectures whose annual population decrease rates are high tend to exhibit a low level of the CMR among their respective municipalities (see Tables 3.1a and b). Fourth, earlier in this book we found that the adjusted variance explained for the annual population increase rate and the CMR by prefecture is significantly high (adjusted R2 for 2013 and for 2014 are 0.77 and 0.802, respectively, see Fig. 1.8 in Chap. 1). Similarly, we note that many of these values within each prefecture by municipality are also significantly high as shown in Table 3.1a. Okinawa Prefecture, however, is an exception in this regard (adjusted R2 = 0.126). In other words, factors contributing to the population increase rate in Okinawa seem to be other than the CMR. When the divorce rates (CDR) for each municipality were added to the multiple regression analyses in Okinawa variance explained for the population increase rate increased to 0.287, nearly 30%. In fact, factors contributing to vital statistics for Okinawans differ significantly from the rest of Japan. Many of the socio-economic factors in Okinawa are ranked at the bottom, and its divorce rate is the highest of all the 47 prefectures in Japan. Nevertheless, the people’s consciousness and feelings of belonging to their community and municipality are high, and the marriage rate is also quite high. A unique innate culture of Okinawa called “Yuimaru” (combined with both yui= cooperation and maru= take turn among members meaning mutual assistance and cooperation in pursuing agricultural work in the farmland) seems to govern the people’s life and mind still today. Another concept essential for understanding the interaction pattern of people in Okinawa is called “yaaninjyu,” equivalent to the family, but not conceptually equal to the traditional Japanese family (Kumagai 1997, 2008, 2011, 2015, 2016, 2018; Tamaki 1997). For more in detail on discussion of municipal power and population increase in Okinawa, refer to Chap. 5 of this book. When we examine the variance explained in Table 3.1b, it is noted that values are more or less low. That is, for prefectures whose population increase rates are low it is often the case that the CMR is not the strongest determining factor. However, such

3.1 Population Increase Rates and Crude Marriage Rates (CRD) …

55

prefectures as Iwate, Aomori, Tokushima, and Hokkaido their variance explained are significantly high. In these four prefectures, the CMR is a significantly high contributing factor for determining the population increase rate. Nevertheless, we must note that there are many municipalities today in which marriages seldom take place due to the depopulation, population aging, and/or no marriageable adult exists in the municipality. These problems are coming to be critical issues of the populationdeclining communities today.

3.2 Increase Rates in Projected Population of Municipalities by Prefecture: From 2010 to 2040 and from 2015 to 2045 The G-Census open data database is incorporated with the projected population estimates from 2010 to 2040 by municipality of the IPSSR studies in 2013 (IPSSR 2013). These estimates are compiled every five years from 2010 to 2040. The statistics are used here to derive population increase rates by municipality for GPS mapping, and population pyramid constructions. These detailed results will be discussed later in this book. In this chapter, however, we will confine our discussion to the population increase rate for each prefecture and by municipality. The table lists the average, the maximum and the minimum values and the names of municipalities within the relevant prefectures for the projected population increase rates for the year 2040 (see Table 3.2). In examining Table 3.2 we can point out four issues to be noted. First, the top ten prefectures for the average of population increase rates in municipalities by prefecture in 2040 projections (Okinawa, Tokyo, Shiga, Aichi, Kanagawa, Saitama, Fukuoka, Chiba, Kyoto, and Osaka) are all parts of the greater Tokyo metropolitan area, and around large cities, except for Okinawa. In addition, we note that the range for population increase rates, i.e., the distance between the minimum and maximum values within each prefecture is amazingly large. This raises a critical question as to the validity of discussing the population increase rates based on the average value of any relevant prefecture. Japan may be a small island nation, but one prefecture may vary greatly from another (Kumagai 1997, 2008, 2011, 2015). It is striking to confirm that the municipalities may also vary greatly within each prefecture. We must pay close attention to the municipal power of each municipality rather than the prefecture as a unit of analysis. This point will be discussed in detail in Chaps. 4 and 5. Second, let us now pay attention to the bottom ten prefectures on Table 3.2. These prefectures are Akita, Aomori, Kochi, Iwate, Yamagata, Wakayama, Shimane, Tokushima, and Nagasaki. The projected population increase rate in 2040 for all of these 10 prefectures is lower than −26%, which means that more than a quarter of the population in 2010 will disappear by 2040 for these bottom 10 prefectures. The rank order correlation for all of 47 prefectures with those in 2013 was highly significant (r = 0.84, p < 0.001).

Hyogo

Hiroshima

Ishikawa

Okayama

Tochigi

Ibaraki

Mie

Gunma

Kumamoto

Shizuoka

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

Chiba

8

13

Fukuoka

7

12

Saitama

6

Miyagi

Kanagawa

5

11

Aichi

4

Kyoto

Shiga

3

Osaka

Tokyo

2

9

Okinawa

1

10

Prefecture

Rank

35

45

35

29

44

25

27

19

23

41

35

43

26

54

60

63

33

54

19

62

41

Numbers of municipality

3035

1467

1630

1508

2423

1643

1611

974

2391

4674

1973

7454

2224

5358

4379

6305

8343

6856

1309

12308

1369

Population in 1,000

14.6 4.9

−19.3 −19.4

9.8

−18.4 12.5

−7.7

−18.1

15.0

−4.2

−17.2

−18.7

24.8

−16.7

−18.8

−3.2

24.4

−16.0 −1.9

3.4

−16.4

15.5

−15.6 −15.9

−16.4

5.0

3.5

−7.8

−13.8

22.2

−7.5 12.7

10.9

−7.2

29.8

14.4

−6.5

−13.7

23.7

−1.7

−12.4

Maximum (%)

Average (%)

Nagaizumi-cho

Kikuyo-machi

Yoshioka-machi

Asahi-cho

Tsukuba-shi

Oyama-shi

Hayashima-cho

Kawakita-machi

Higashihiroshima-shi

Nishinomiya-shi

Tomiya-mach

Tajiri-cho

Kizugawa-shi

Narita-shi

Kasuya-machi

Ina-machi

Kawasaki-shi

Nagakute-shi

Kusatsu-shi

Chuo-ku

Tomigusuku-shi

Municipality

Table 3.2 Increase rates for projected population of municipalities by prefecture from 2010 to 2040

−52.1

−58.1

−71.0

−56.5

−48.6

−43.2

−42.1

−54.5

−55.5

−42.6

−48.5

−45.6

−54.7

−47.2

−43.6

−56.6

−42.3

−55.7

−38.4

−52.1

−31.6

Minimum (%)

Nishiizu-cho

Itsuki-mura (continued)

Nammoku-mura

Minamise-cho

Daigo-machi

Mogi-machi

Takahashi-shi

Noto-cho

Akiota-cho

Shinonsen-cho

Shichikashuku-machi

Nose-cho

Minamiyamashiro-mura

Kyonan-machi

Toho-mura

Higashichichibu-mura

Yamakita-machi

Toei-cho

Kora-cho

Hinohara-mura

Ogimi-son

Municipality

56 3 Population-Sustaining Power and Marriage Power by Prefecture …

Prefecture

Saga

Gifu

Oita

Miyazaki

Fukui

Nara

Kagawa

Nagano

Yamanashi

Toyama

Kagoshima

Hokkaido

Niigata

Ehime

Tottori

Yamaguchi

Nagasaki

Fukushima

Tokushima

Shimane

Wakayama

Rank

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

Table 3.2 (continued)

30

19

24

59

21

19

19

20

30

179

43

15

27

77

17

39

17

26

18

42

20

Numbers of municipality

719

521

571

1845

1049

1070

441

1075

1791

4190

1314

841

666

1668

773

1096

633

901

955

1660

680

Population in 1,000

18.5 −3.3 −19.4 −5.6

−27.3 −27.4 −28.2

−1.0

−26.5 −26.8

4.6 −9.0

−25.1

−15.2

−24.9 −26.3

−1.6 −10.1

−24.6

−7.5

−23.0 −23.9

1.1 13.8

−23.0

7.3

−22.5 −22.8

8.1 8.5

−21.7

−10.6

−21.5 −22.4

−7.5 −10.2

3.9

−20.2 −20.2

8.1

−20.0

−20.7

Maximum (%)

Average (%)

Iwade-shi

Matsue-shi

Kitajima-cho

Okuma-machi

Togitsu-cho

Kudamatsu-shi

Hiezu-son

Matsuyama-shi

Seiro-machi

Otofuke-cho

Tatsugo-cho

Funahashi-mura

Showa-cho

Minamiminowa-mura

Utazu-cho

Kashiba-shi

Sabae-shi

Mimata-cho

Oita-shi

Minokamo-shi

Tosu-shi

Municipality

−50.6

−53.0

−58.6

−71.0

−56.1

−58.3

−34.8

−55.4

−50.8

−44.6

−52.5

−44.7

−63.2

−64.0

−43.2

−58.8

−47.9

−53.6

−50.0

−46.5

−40.2

Minimum (%)

Koya-cho

Tsuwano-cho

Naka-cho

Mishima-machi

Ojika-cho

(continued)

Kaminoseki-cho

Wakasa-mura

Kumakogen-cho

Awashimaura-mura

Yubari-shi

Yamato-son

Asahi-machi

Hayakawa-mura

Tenryu-mura

Tonosho-cho

Nosegawa-mura

Ikeda-cho

Hinokage-cho

Himeshima-mura

Shirakawa-cho

Tara-cho

Municipality

3.2 Increase Rates in Projected Population of Municipalities … 57

Yamagata

Iwate

Kochi

Aomori

Akita

43

44

45

46

47

25

40

34

33

35

Numbers of municipality

700

932

537

938

836

Population in 1,000

−16.4 −12.3 −27.2

−29.8 −35.6

−5.8

−32.1

−9.4

−29.5

Maximum (%)

−28.5

Average (%)

Ogata-mura

Oirase-cho

Konan-shi

Takizawa-shi

Higashine-shi

Municipality

−54.3

−59.7

−65.3

−51.8

−47.6

Minimum (%)

Kamikoani-mura

Imabetsu-machi

Otoyo-cho

Nishiwaga-machi

Okura-mura

Municipality

Notes Tokyo includes 23 special wards, and figures for Fukushima Prefecture are for reference only. Source IPSSR (2013), and the table includes all the 47 prefectures and 1877 municipalities (as of October 1, 2010). Values are compiled and the Table is constructed by the author

Prefecture

Rank

Table 3.2 (continued)

58 3 Population-Sustaining Power and Marriage Power by Prefecture …

3.2 Increase Rates in Projected Population of Municipalities …

59

Among these bottom ten prefectures there are municipalities which show relatively low level of population decrease rates such as Takizawa-shi in Iwate, Higashine-shi in Yamagata, Iwade-shi in Wakayama, and Kitajima-cho in Tokushima (see Table 3.2). We need to assess municipal power of these municipalities so that we might be able to apply them for other municipalities to enhance their population increase. Thus, among the prefectures whose population has seriously deteriorated we should pay close attention to those who have been seeking innovative programs to revitalize their municipalities. The detailed discussion will follow in Chaps. 6 and 7. Third, recently IPSSR released population projections for every five years from 2015 to 2045 by prefecture and municipality (IPSSR 2018b). Regrettably, however, the data are not incorporated with the G-Census open database (G-Census 2016). Thus, we compiled and constructed the table to compare projection data for 2045 with those for 2040 (see Table 3.3). The rank order correlation coefficient for all of 47 prefectures in 2040 and 2045 was extremely high (r = 0.93, p < 0.001). Thus, we can assume that it is appropriate to pursue our discussion based on the 2040 projection data of IPSSR 2013, but not the 2045 counterpart. In comparing Tables 3.2 and 3.3, we can see that the gap between the averages of the top and bottom prefectures is widening. In other words, the rate of decrease is smaller at the top, and greater at the bottom. This is likely due to the increasing concentration of population in greater urban areas, despite various efforts made by individual municipalities. However, when we pay attention only to the maximum value, the disparity is small, and the population growth rate tends to be low nationwide. Perhaps, this is because the natural population growth rate in Japan as a whole has been negative due to the decline in marriage (Hara 2020). The fourth point to be noted is, as we have already discussed in Sect. 1.7.2, and Figs. 1.7 and 1.8, that population increase rates by prefectural level are explained significantly by marriage rates. In fact, prefectures which show high marriage rates coincide with those of high population increase rates in 2015 (Tokyo, Okinawa, Saitama, Kanagawa, Aichi, Chiba, Fukuoka, Miyagi, Shiga, and Osaka, IPSSR 2018a). Similarly, the bottom ten prefectures whose population increase rates are low, or highly negative, suffer from a low marriage rate: Akita, Aomori, Kochi, Yamagata, Yamaguchi, Iwate, Wakayama, Nagasaki, Tokushima and Niigata Prefectures. Although we do not know the relationship at the municipal level, we can infer that there is a relationship between the population increase and the marriage rates at the municipal level as well since there is a relationship throughout the prefectures. On the contrary, however, there is no significant causal relationship between the total fertility rate (TFR) by prefecture and the population increase rate of the prefecture (R = −0.241, p = 0.03, Y (annual population increase rate) = −3.309 + 0.729X1 (CMR) −0.391X2 (TFR), p < 0.001, adjusted R2 = 0.058 (Statistics Bureau 2018b). The top ten prefectures on the projected population increase rates in 2040 in Table 3.2 have high marriage rates, but not high TFR scores. In fact, they are negatively related to each other, except for Okinawa. Marriages take place more frequently in large cities than isolated rural regions, but not so much so for TFR (MHLW 2018). When deciding whether or not to have children, a married couple will be strongly affected by other factors including their socio-economic status. According to the MHLW report,

7

8

7

8

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

14

9

12

20

22

21

28

16

18

19

11

6

3

10

5

6

9

4

5

10

3

4

15

2

1

13

1

2

Gunma

Mie

Tochigi

Kagawa

Shizuoka

Saga

Kumamoto

Hyogo

Kyoto

Ishikawa

Osaka

Okayama

Hiroshima

Chiba

Fukuoka

Shiga

Saitama

Kanagawa

Aichi

Okinawa

Tokyo

2040 2045 Prefecture Rank Rank

35

29

25

17

35

20

45

41

26

19

43

27

23

54

60

19

63

33

54

41

62

1973

1816

1974

976

3700

833

1786

5535

2610

1154

8839

1922

2844

5463

5102

1413

7267

9216

7483

1434

13515

1553

1431

1561

776

2943

664

1442

4532

2137

948

7335

1620

2429

6223

4554

1263

6525

8313

6899

1428

13607

14.7 −5.5 −4.9 −2.3 10.5 3.4 −4.7 20.3 2.2 −3.0 −1.5 −7.2 23.5 11.8

−12.2 −14.6 −15.7 −17.0 −17.9 −18.1 −18.1 −19.2 −20.3 −20.5 −20.5 −21.0 −21.2 −21.3

15.8

−10.2 6.2

5.1

−8.9

20.4

22.7

−7.8

−10.7

29.4

−10.6

34.9

0.7 −0.4

−57.3

−54.5

−42.8

−56.1

−55.1

−59.9

−49.1

−66.8

Yoshioka-machi

Asahi-cho

Utsunomiya-shi

Utazu-cho

Nagaizumi-cho

Tosu-shi

Kikuyo-machi

Fukusaki-cho

Kyotanabe-shi

Nonoichi-shi

Suita-shi

Okayama-shi

−77.0

−69.6

−59.5

−48.5

−65.4

−55.6

−63.6

−52.3

−66.4

−58.7

−59.1

−51.5

(continued)

Nammoku-mura

Minamiise-cho

Mogi-machi

Higashikagawa-shi

Nishiizu-cho

Tara-cho

Isuki

Kamigori-cho

Kasagi-cho

Noto-cho

Chihayakasaka-mura

Niimi-shi

Akiota-cho

Kyonan-machi

Kotake-machi

Kora-cho

Higashichichibu-mura

Yamakita-machi

Toyone-mura

Tonaki-son

Okutama-machi

Minimum Municipality (%)

Higashihiroshima-shi −56.1

Nagareyama-shi

Kasuya-machi

Kusatsu-shi

Toda-shi

Kawasaki-shi

Nagakute-shi

Nakagusuku-son

Chuo-ku

Numbers of 2015 Total 2045 Projected total Average Maximum Municipality municipality population in 1,000 population in 1,000 (%) (%)

Table 3.3 Increase rates for projected population of municipalities by prefecture from 2015 to 2045

60 3 Population-Sustaining Power and Marriage Power by Prefecture …

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

36

26

11

24

29

31

17

23

41

25

33

34

37

38

27

32

35

30

42

40

44

Iwate

Tokushima

Wakayama

Yamanashi

Ehime

Kagoshima

Nara

Nagasaki

Yamaguchi

Niigata

Hokkaido

Miyazaki

Shimane

Gifu

Ibaraki

Toyama

Nagano

Oita

Miyagi

Fukui

Tottori

2040 2045 Prefecture Rank Rank

Table 3.3 (continued)

33

24

30

27

20

43

39

21

19

30

179

26

19

42

44

15

77

18

35

17

19

1280

756

964

835

1385

1648

1364

1377

1405

2304

5382

1104

694

2032

2917

1066

2099

1166

2334

787

573

885

535

688

599

1013

1204

998

982

1036

1699

4005

825

521

1557

2236

817

1615

897

1809

614

449

0.5 −10.2

−29.2 −30.9

−4.5

−26.5

−5.8

−9.6

−26.3

−5.0

−7.2

−26.3

−28.6

−6.3

−25.6

−28.3

−8.9

−25.3

−14.7

−8.0

−23.8

−26.9

2.3

−23.4

−4.9

7.6

−13.2

−12.2

−23.3 −23.4

−26.9

−0.6

−23.1

−26.8

10.1 −9.2

−23.1

−21.9 −22.5

2.1 −6.4

−21.8

Takizawa-shi

Kitajima-cho

Hidaka-cho

Oshino-mura

Matsuyama-shi

Aira-shi

Kashiba-shi

Omura-shi

Yamaguchi-shi

Seiro-machi

Chitose-shi

Mimata-cho

Izumo-shi

Mizuho-shi

Tsukubamirai-shi

Funabashi-mura

Miyota-machi

Oita-shi

Tomiya-machi

Sabae-shi

Hiezu-son

Numbers of 2015 Total 2045 Projected total Average Maximum Municipality municipality population in 1,000 population in 1,000 (%) (%)

−59.9

−67.1

−64.1

−68.4

−62.4

−66.8

−79.4

−63.2

−67.4

−60.7

−77.3

−61.6

−52.0

−59.0

−55.8

−58.3

−72.2

−62.4

−58.5

−56.9

−62.6

(continued)

Kazumaki-machi

Tsurugi-cho

Koya-cho

Tabayama-mura

Kumakogen-cho

Minamiosumi-cho

Kawakami-mura

Ojika-cho

Kaminoseki-cho

Aga-machi

Utashinai-shi

Morotsuka-son

Okuizumo-cho

Shirakawa-cho

Daigo-machi

Asahi-machi

Tenryu-mura

Himeshima-mura

Shichigashuku-machi

Ikeda-cho

Hino-cho

Minimum Municipality (%)

3.2 Increase Rates in Projected Population of Municipalities … 61

44

45

46

47

43

45

46

47

All Japan

Akita

Aomori

Kochi

Yamagata

Fukushima

25

40

34

35

59

110920

1023

1308

728

1124

1914

106420

602

824

498

768

1315 −19.6 −16.3 −28.5

−31.6 −37.0 −41.2 −16.3

−6.3

−31.6

−31.3

Akita-shi

Oirase-cho

Kochi-shi

Higashine-shi

Numbers of 2015 Total 2045 Projected total Average Maximum Municipality municipality population in 1,000 population in 1,000 (%) (%)

−64.1

−71.0

−69.8

−59.7

Fujisato-machi

Imabetsu-machi

Otoyo-cho

Mamurogawa-machi

Minimum Municipality (%)

Notes The total number of 1,978 municipalities including 23 special wards in Tokyo, 128 government designated cities, other 766 cities, 713 towns, and 168 villages. Values for Fukushima Prefecture are for reference only, and those of municipality are not made public. Source IPSSR (2013, 2018b). Values are compiled and the table is constructed by the author

43

39

2040 2045 Prefecture Rank Rank

Table 3.3 (continued)

62 3 Population-Sustaining Power and Marriage Power by Prefecture …

3.2 Increase Rates in Projected Population of Municipalities …

63

the top 10 prefectures on TFR score in 2017 are Okinawa, Miyazaki, Shimane, Nagasaki, Kumamoto, Saga, Kagoshima, Tottori, Fukushima, and Kagawa. While, the bottom 10 prefectures on TFR score in 2017 are Tokyo, Kyoto, Hokkaido, Nar, Miyagi, Osaka, Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba, and Akita (MHLW 2018). The weak correlation between TFR and the population increase rate is due largely to the effect of the population migration on the population increase rate. The population migration is affected by the age structure, but unlike normal birth rate TFR is not affected by the age structure. It is because the TFR indicator itself excludes that factor, and therefore, the correlation between the two is very weak (Hara 2020).

3.3 Marriage Power and Population Sustaining Power by Municipality We must be cautious about the causal relationship between the marriage rate and the projected population increase rates by prefecture. Stated differently, we must be cautious in considering the CMR as a critical factor in the population increase rate. The CMRs (and the CDRs—crude divorce rates) derive from dividing the total number of marriage (or divorce) cases per 1,000 total population in each given year (CMR cases/population/1,000). These rates are based on the population as a whole, rather than the population of marriageable age group by sex. Marriage rates are more accurate if they are based on the population of the 25–34 age groups, those who are most likely to marry in Japan today (Kumagai 2008): 76. In general, the CMRs for the relevant female age groups are higher than those of their male counterparts. Furthermore, changes in the denominator for the CMR, the total population, are affected by such factors as the natural population increase rate, death rate of older adults in particular, and the social population increase rate (the rate for moving in—moving out of the municipality) as discussed earlier in Chap. 1 (Sect. 1.1.6). The female marriage rate is further complicated. A renowned demographer, Professor Toshihiko Hara, contends when a woman moves into a community to marry, the marriage rate will increase. On the other hand, a woman who moves out of the community to marry and lives outside the community, will force a decline in the marriage rate. Furthermore, if the female marriage rate is high and there are only a few unmarried women in the community, the likelihood of first marriages will decline. As a consequence, the marriage rate in the community will become low (Hara 2018). Thus, as Professor Hara pointed out, the relationship between the CMR and the population increase rate cannot be said to be simply causal. That is, demographically speaking, we cannot assume a high CMR in the municipality causes the population to increase. Then, how should we interpret the high interrelationship between the CMR and the population increase rate in the municipality? The CMR could be interpreted simply as the “marriage power” of the municipality, the power to create marriage

64

3 Population-Sustaining Power and Marriage Power by Prefecture …

that is the basis of population regeneration. On the other hand, the population increase rate, could be taken as the “population sustaining power,” including marriage, of the municipality (for more detailed discussion on these variables refer to Sect. 2.2.1 in this book). In other words, we interpret the marriage power as the possibility for marriage among the total population in the municipality. If the population ages, then a marriage is unlikely to take place. As a result, the birth rate lowers because no family is feasible. Consequently, the generational transfer in the municipality is tapered to lower the population sustaining power. Furthermore, as we have already witnessed in Table 3.1, prefectures which ranked low in the population increase rate reveal a positive relationship with the CMR within the relevant prefecture but with low correlation coefficient. For those, we cannot say that the CMR is a strong indicator for population increases. These exceptions, in fact, explain the very nature of regional variations in municipal power (chiikiryoku) which is defined as regional power/strength including both pros and cons of municipal characteristics) (see Prologue and Sect. 1.4 of this book). In other words, we can say that prefectures with large cities exhibit high population increase rates due primarily to the social population increase rate of people moving into the region. Instead, prefectures without any large city where the relationship between these two variables are weak suggest we consider factors other than the CMR for population increases. Let us reiterate, therefore, that the municipal marriage power is one of the effective factors accounting for the population sustaining power of the municipality.

3.4 Household Type: Nuclear Family Household and Generational Family Household We use the nuclear family and the generational family as the household type for small area open data study.1 The method of calculating the percentage of nuclear family households in this study is adopted from Kiyomi Morioka’s (1973) study. That is, take nuclear family households of the national census, excluding single person households, as the numerator to divide it by kin family2 households as the denominator. So single-person households are excluded from the nuclear family definition. Generational family households are derived by subtracting the nuclear family households from the kin family households, and divided by the total kin family households. This author looks at the family as a group of people acting together in pursuit of certain objectives and to conduct family lives together. These contrasting household types are well documented (Kumagai 1997, Shimizu 1992, 2011), and demonstrate distinctive cultural differences between southwestern and northeastern regions of Japan. Taking the 2010 national census data distribution of household type by prefecture is presented in Fig. 3.1 (see Fig. 3.1). It is clear that generational family households are more or less concentrated in northeastern prefectures except for Shimane and Tottori Prefectures of the Sannin region of western

3.4 Household Type: Nuclear Family Household and Generational …

(a)

65

(b)

(c)

Fig. 3.1 Proportions of household type by prefecture: 2010 (a) nuclear family household, (b) generational family household, (c) living alone household Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 15 Feb 2020

Honshu (see Fig. 3.1b). On the contrary, nuclear family households are concentrated in southwestern parts of Japan (see Fig. 3.1a). Such distribution is also true for living alone households of both older adults and younger adults included (see Fig. 3.1c). In this chapter, therefore, using the 1980 and 2015 census data we will examine these two contrasting household types by prefecture, to see if there exist regional variations by province and prefecture. In 1980 of the total kin family households (28,656,818) the generational family households were about one fourth (24.68%, 7,072,503). Prefectures high in generational family households were Yamagata (44.03%), Toyama (40.82%), Fukui 39.43%), Akita (39.31%), Niigata (38.51%), Shimane (36.58%), Tottori (35.84%), Iwate (35.39%), Fukushima (35.50%), and Ishikawa (34.54%) (see Table 3.4a). These prefectures all fall within the regions of the Tosando, Hokurikudo, and Sannindo as discussed in the theoretical framework of the Goki-Shichido earlier in this book (see Chap. 1).

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Table 3.4 Proportion (%) of household type by prefecture: 1980 and 2015 a 1980 Rank

Living Alone: LA Prefecture

Generational

Nuclear Family

LA TOTAL

Older Adults

Younger Adults

National average

24.68

60.28

15.04

2.46

12.58

1

Yamagata

44.03

46.79

9.18

1.49

7.69

2

Toyama

40.82

50.90

8.28

1.82

6.46

3

Fukui

39.43

50.52

10.05

2.43

7.57

4

Akita

39.31

50.76

9.93

1.66

8.27

5

Niigata

38.51

51.45

10.04

1.66

8.38

43

Kanagawa

19.24

65.40

15.36

1.53

13.83

44

Hokkaido

18.83

65.15

16.02

2.22

13.80

45

Osaka

17.53

65.96

16.51

2.60

13.91

46

Tokyo

16.90

56.43

26.67

2.36

24.31

47

Kagoshima

16.04

65.10

18.86

7.10

11.76

b 2015 Rank

Living Alone: LA Prefecture

Generational

Nuclear Family

LA TOTAL

Older Adults

Younger Adults

National average

9.68

55.79

34.53

11.11

23.42

1

Yamagata

24.67

49.84

25.49

9.42

16.07

2

Fukui

20.91

52.70

26.39

9.74

16.65

3

Akita

20.13

51.95

27.92

12.34

15.58

4

Niigata

19.44

52.96

27.60

9.73

17.87

5

Toyama

18.91

54.94

26.15

10.22

15.93

6.77

55.94

37.29

13.10

24.19

43

Hokkaido

44

Osaka

6.38

56.09

37.53

13.28

24.25

45

Kanagawa

6.11

58.39

35.50

10.06

25.44

46

Kagoshima

5.79

58.55

35.66

15.33

20.33

47

Tokyo

4.86

47.34

47.30

11.05

36.25

Source e-Stat basic Census Data: population and household, https://www.e-stat.go.jp/regional-sta tistics/ssdsview/prefectures. Accessed 16 Feb 2020. Data are compiled and the table is constructed by the author

3.4 Household Type: Nuclear Family Household and Generational …

67

On the contrary, prefectures low in generational family households and high in nuclear family households in 1980 were Kagoshima, Tokyo, Osaka, Hokkaido, Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba, Hyogo, Fukuoka, and Okinawa. They were included within the areas of the Tokaido, Kinai, Sannyodo, and Nankaido. These prefectures all have large cities, except for Kagoshima Prefecture. Nuclear family households in Kagoshima are known to consist of older adults, while those of other regions of younger adults (Fukuda 1983, Kumagai 2008, 2015, Shimizu 1986, 1992). Thirty-five years later, in 2015, the generational family households were 9.68% (3,321,692) of the total number of households in Japan (34,314,998). Prefectures high on the generational family household fall within the region of the Tosando (Yamagata: 24.67%, Akita: 20.13%, Iwate: 25.47%, Fukushima: 24.80%, Aomori: 22.69%, Gifu: 20.80%), the region of the Hokurikudo (Fukui: 20.91%, Niigata: 26.15%, Toyama: 24.63%), and the region of the Sannindo (Shimane: 24.75%, Tottori: 23.79%). Prefectures low in generational family households and high on nuclear family households in 2015 are mostly similar to those of 1980. In fact, the rank order correlation between these two years are significantly high (r = 0.953). They are Tokyo (4.86%), Kagoshima 5.79%), Kanagawa (6.11%), Osaka (6.38%), Hokkaido (6.77%), Kyoto (7.68%), Hiroshima (8.00%), Hyogo (8.04%), Fukuoka (8.13%), and Saitama (8.29%). In looking at Table 3.4 we note that sizeable increase in the proportion of living alone households for both older adults and younger adults as well. Decline in generational family households seems to be moving much more to living alone rather than to nuclear family households (see Table 3.4b). The difference in the household type is taken as municipal power derived from the Goki-Shichido and provinces, and the cultural heritage lasts for a long period of time. Thus, despite the declining trend in the generational family household, prefectures with high percentages of generational families tend to stay more or less the same over time. It is assumed that similar differences would be observed within the same prefecture, should it be governed by different Han dynasties and provinces. Thus, we will examine variations within the same prefecture which might be accounted for by the provincial differences of the Goki-Shichido, later chapters to follow, i.e., in Chaps. 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8.

3.5 Population Issues on Ikkyoku Shuchu (Monopolar Concentration) in Tokyo It is often said that the Japanese population today is in the state of ikkyoku shuuchu (monopolar concentration) in Tokyo (Ichikawa 2015; Fujimoto 1992; Kido 2016; Masuda 2014). People contend that population and advanced urban functions became intensely concentrated in Tokyo, causing the income disparity to widen. Such a way of describing Tokyo will give the impression as if most of Japan’s population is concentrated only in Tokyo. Therefore, Tokyo will be the only prefecture which will

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3 Population-Sustaining Power and Marriage Power by Prefecture …

remain in the future, and all the other prefectures will disappear. Does that really happen? In fact, not only Tokyo but also some other major urban areas and Okinawa will be the prefectures where the population concentration will be outstanding. Put it more precisely, their population will increase in the future. Japanese demographer, Toshihiko Hara, coined the word “Matthew effect of population decline“ in analogy to Matthew’s gospel, “If you can afford, you can be given more and more” (Hara 2011). Taking the national census data of 2010 and the population projection for 2030, he found that there exists a positive correlation between the current and the future population share of the prefecture. That is, the larger the current share of the population, the higher the population growth rate, and the future share of the population will also be high. It is because the population share is basically proportional to the size of the original population, and nonexistent populations do not increase or decrease. Taking the prefectural population share of 2015 and that of projection for 2045, correlation analysis is conducted (see Fig. 3.2). It is found that the correlation coefficient between these two population by prefecture is extremely high (R2 = 0.9894). The population share of Tokyo is by far the largest (2015: 10.9%; 2045: 12.8%), followed by Kanagawa (2015: 7.2%; 2045: 7.8%), Osaka (2015: 7.0%; 2045: 6.9%), and Aichi (2015: 5.9%; 2045: 6.5%). We should note that the population share of Osaka Prefecture will decline in 2045 from the 2015 counterpart. These results indicate that the share of population by each prefecture in the future will stay pretty much as the current situation. 14.000 y = 1.1319x - 0.2806 R² = 0.9894

12.000

2045

10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0.000 0.000

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

2015 Fig. 3.2 Correlation between the share (%) of the population by prefecture in 2015 and in 2045 (projected). Source IPSSR (2020), Table 12–06, data and figures are compiled and constructed by the author

3.5 Population Issues on Ikkyoku Shuchu (Monopolar Concentration) …

69

In other words, although the population share of Tokyo metropolitan area will increase, the population itself will decline, and other prefectures will remain to exist. Thus, it will neither happen that the monopolar concentration of the population in Tokyo, nor the disappearance of all the other prefectures in the future. Let us take a closer look, using the open database on prefectural demographic data of Statistics Bureau (2018a). Table 3.5 lists prefectures with high annual population increase rates. They are four prefectures composed of the greater metropolitan Tokyo region including Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba, prefectures of Aichi, Osaka, Fukuoka, and Okinawa. Indexes for population increase rates can be obtained as follows (Statistics Bureau 2018a): Population Increase = Natural Population Increase (Birth − Death) + Social Population Increase (Moving-in − Moving-out). Population Increase Rate (%) = Population Increase in Previous Year/Population as of October 1 of the Previous Year × 100. In examining Table 3.5 we noticed six points which need close attention. First, population increase in the greater metropolitan Tokyo region is due to a high rate of social population increase. More people are moving in rather than moving out. In addition, a low death rate suppresses the natural increase rate. These tendencies are especially outstanding in Tokyo (population increase rate = 0.80, natural population increase rate = −0.11, social population increase rate = 0.54). In addition, as we have already witnessed earlier in the acute increase in living alone households, both of younger adults and of older adults, contributes to population increase in Tokyo (see Table 3.4b). However, reasons for their moving into Tokyo are different among these two groups: younger adults on one hand are for getting higher education and/or employment, but for older adults moving into facilities for older adults on the other hand. Second, the proportion of older adults in the greater metropolitan Tokyo region is relatively low. It is projected, however, that the proportion will increase dramatically because the first baby boomers, those who are born between 1947 and 1949, are all 65 and over by the year 2015. Third, the proportion of children in the greater metropolitan Tokyo region is low. If the marriage rate is high, but the birth rate is extremely low, the result is a lowered child population (see Table 3.1). It is primarily due to the late marriage and the late birth of younger adults in Tokyo today. In fact, in 2018 average ages for the first marriage in Tokyo male was 32.4 (national average; 31.1), and for female was 30.4 (national average: 29.4) years of age, respectively (IPSSR 2020, Tables 6.12 and 12.35). In other words, it indicates that people get married late, and consequently the time when they give their first baby birth will come late, or it never does. Fourth, as we have examined earlier, the projected population increase rate from 2010 to 2040, and from 2015 to 2045 will decline throughout Japan (2040 = −16.2%, 2045 = −16.3% see Tables 3.2 and 3.3). However, four prefectures in the greater metropolitan Tokyo region are all ranked high on the population increase rate. This fact, perhaps, has resulted in a misleading image of the population concentration in Tokyo. The population composition today will not necessarily be the same in the

12.3

13.3

17.2

Osaka

Fukuoka

Okinawa

62.4

60.2

60.9

62.2

63.1

63.2

65.8

61.2

62.1

60.3

Working population rate [15–64 years old] (%)

Source Statistics Bureau, MIAC (2018a). Figures are compiled by the author

13.6

Aichi

11.3

Tokyo

12.4

12.2

Chiba

12.1

12.4

Saitama

Average for the above 4

12.4

All Japan average

Kanagawa

Child population rate [0–14 years old] (%)

Prefecture

20.4

26.6

26.8

24.3

24.8

24.4

22.9

26.5

25.5

27.3

Older adults rate [65+ years old] (%) 7.70 7.47 7.28 8.22

−0.26 −0.12 −0.18 −0.01

8.63

−0.14

0.38

0.05

11.55

8.56 7.79

−0.01 −0.18

0.32 −0.07

0.34

7.73 7.68

−0.07

0.38

0.21 −0.10

0.80

0.21

0.31

−0.13

Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population)

Natural population increase rate (%)

Population increase rate (%)

1.95

1.50

1.37

1.56

1.33

1.36

1.24

1.35

1.37

1.44

TFR(%)

8.13

9.99

9.55

8.69

8.63

8.46

8.32

9.04

8.71

10.30

Crude death rate (per 1,000 population)

Table 3.5 Population increase factors for Tokyo greater metropolitan areas, Aichi, Osaka, Fukuoka, and Okinawa Prefectures: 2016

−0.02

0.11

0.02

0.08

0.29

0.13

0.54

0.26

0.21

Social population increase rate (%)

70 3 Population-Sustaining Power and Marriage Power by Prefecture …

3.5 Population Issues on Ikkyoku Shuchu (Monopolar Concentration) …

71

future. The proportion of the working population in Tokyo today is high, and that of older adults is relatively low. In the years to come these population age groups will mature and move to the next population age group. Today’s small proportion of children will become workers in the future. Furthermore, the present-day large proportion of the working population group will become older adults, enlarging its proportion dramatically. Therefore, the population of Tokyo with its low birth rate and the high death rate today will also decline sooner or later. Now let us examine the regions with high population increase rates other than the greater metropolitan Tokyo region, except for Okinawa Prefecture. Among eight prefectures listed on Table 3.5, the population increase rate in Aichi Prefecture is the second highest on the list, i.e., next to Tokyo. It would be due to the increase in the working population into the area seeking for the work opportunities in the manufacturing sector of the region. Furthermore, influx of foreign workers, especially of Brazilians of Japanese descendants contributes to the increase in the population. (For more in detail on the discussion of “Immigration Issue and Foreign Workers” refer to Sect. 8.3 of this book.) As for Osaka Prefecture, population decline in Osaka in 2016 (−0.07) is primarily due to the negative natural population increase (birth rate − death rate). Furthermore, the social population increase rate in Osaka is nearly zero, while aging population rate is high. The population increase in Fukuoka Prefecture is due primarily to the active entrepreneurship of neighboring cities of Fukuoka-shi such as Kasuya-machi. Despite having large cities within the prefecture, population increase rates for Osaka and Fukuoka are low. That is due to the progress of population aging together with the high rate of older adult population, and high death rate reducing the low level of natural population increase rate. Therefore, we can say that both Osaka and Fukuoka suggest the future state of the population in Japan. (Detailed discussion on municipal power in Tokyo and Aichi Prefectures are found in Chap. 4 of this book.) The final point we should pay attention to on Table 3.5 is the population increase rate in Okinawa. That is, it displays characteristics quite different from any other prefecture in Japan, which might come from its unique cultural pattern as discussed earlier in this chapter (see Sect. 3.1, especially on yuimaru and yaaninjyu). The proportion of the child population is very high, while that of older adults is low, and that of the working population is similar to that of the greater metropolitan Tokyo region. The natural population increase rate is high indicating a high birth rate and low death rate, and the social population increase rate is practically zero. These facts suggest that Okinawans have very little geographic mobility compared to other prefectures, and older adults live longer. To attest to this statement the life expectancy of Okinawans is quite high in Japan. (In 2015, the average life expectancy of Japanese men 80.77, and women 87.01, whereas in Okinawa men 80.27, and women 87.44, IPSSR 2020, Table 12.40). As for the municipal power of Osaka, Fukuoka, and Okinawa Prefectures we will discuss in detail in Chap. 5 of this book. From these findings, we can now say that it is not correct that the population in Japan is monopolar centralized in Tokyo, but that there is a tendency for populations to concentrate in large cities, or in the core four regions and seven prefectures, and in Okinawa Prefecture. These four regions are the greater metropolitan Tokyo

72

3 Population-Sustaining Power and Marriage Power by Prefecture …

region including Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba, and regions of Aichi, Osaka, Fukuoka, and Okinawa Prefectures. We have identified this population concentration tendency in these seven prefectures, but not the concentration in Tokyo only. When we examined changes in the population share by prefecture in 2015 and that of projected in 2045 the same thing is confirmed. That is, it is undeniable that the population share of Tokyo metropolitan area together with four metropolitan regions and Okinawa Prefecture will increase in the future d (see Fig. 3.2). What we can say from the discussion developed in the current chapter is that analyses for population decline in Japan decline is not appropriate by prefectural level, but it should be by municipal level. In other words, to propose countermeasures against the population-declining Japanese society, it is essential to look at municipal power, both positive and negative in nature, inherent to each municipality. The municipal marriage power revealed to be one of the most significant factors which account for the population sustaining power in each municipality. However, there seem to be factors which hinder married couples from having children, such as household finances, and the burdens of nurturing and rearing children. This is why municipal power becomes important for revitalizing and reconstructing the population declining municipalities. We will discuss in detail the significance and the importance of municipal power to revitalize population declining municipalities in Japanese society in Chaps. 4, 5, 6, 7, and 8. Notes 1. In Japan there are three major methods to calculate nuclear family households. First is the method used for government statistics and White Paper on National Life (Kokumin Hakusho) by The Cabinet Office, Government of Japan. The nuclear family household here represents its proportion out of the general households in which people who live together are included. Second, in the first Japanese national census conducted in 1920 single person households were included among those of the nuclear families, and adopted by Takashi Koyama (1971). Thus, in this method the proportion of the nuclear households will become higher than the first method. The third method is the one that adopted by Kiyomi Morioka (1973), as used in this book. That is, take the nuclear family households of the national census which does not include single person households in the numerator, and divide it by the kin family households. The method adopted depends on the purpose of each researcher. 2. According to the definition by the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC] the kin family is composed of blood related members and relatives through marriage. Thus, those who reside in the same household, but are not kin members, are excluded from the kin family household count. Some examples of non-kin family members are those of friends temporarily or permanently residing with the family, and those living in a boarding house.

References

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Kumagai, F. (2018). Chiikiryoku de Tachimukau Jinkou Genshou Shakai: Chiisana Jichitai no Chiiki Saisei Saku [Declining Population and the Municipal Power in Japan: Policies for Area Revitalization of Small Municipalities.] Kyoto: Minerva-shobo. Masuda, H. (Ed.). (2014). Chihou Shoumetsu [Disappearing Local Regions]. Tokyo: Chukoushinsho. Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare [MHLW]. (2018). Heisei 29-nen Jinko Doutai Toukei Geppo Nenkei: Gaisuu no Gaikyou [Vital statistics of 2017-summaries]. (Published on June 1). https:// www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/geppo/nengai17/dl/gaikyou29.pdf. Accessed 11 Aug 2018. Morioka, K. (1973). Kazoku Shuki Ron[Family Life Cycle]. Tokyo: Baifukan. Shimizu, H. (1986). Jinko to Kazoku no Shakaigaku [Sociology of Population and Families]. Tokyo: Sai-shobo. Shimizu, H. (1992). Koreika Shakai to Kazokukouzou no Chiikisei [Regional Variation in Aging Society and Family Structures]. Tokyo: Jicho-sha. Shimizu, H. (2011). Nihon Kazoku ron saiko [Japanese families revisited]. Shakaigaku Ronso, 171(June), 33–42. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2015). Heisei 26nen 10-gatsu 1-nichi genzai zenkoku nenrei, danjyobetsu, to-do-fu-ken betsu, shi-cho-son betsu jinkou suikei [Population estimates for Japanese people by age, sex, prefecture, municipality as of 1 Oct 2014] (Published on 17 April 2015). http://www.stat.go.jp/data/jinsui/2014np/index.htm. Accessed 26 Sept 2016. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018a). Toukei de miru To-do-fu-ken no sugta [Statistical Observations of Prefectures: 2018]. Released on 16 Feb 2018. http://www.stat.go.jp/data/k-sugata/index.html. Accessed 8 Aug 2018. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018b). Toukei de miru shi-ku-cho-son no sugta [Statistical Observations of Municipalities: 2018]. Released on 22 June 2018. http://www.stat.go.jp/data/s-sugata/index.html. Accessed 8 Aug 2018. Tamaki, T. (1997). Dento to henkaku no hazamade yureru Okinawa-ken no kazoku [Changing families in Okinawa under tradition and modernization].in Nihon no Kazoku to Chiikisei Gekan [Japanese family structure and regional variations]. Vol. 2 of Nishi Nihon no Kazoku wo Chuushintoshite [Special emphasis on western Japan], F. Kumagai (ed.), 189–210. Kyoto: Minerva-shobo.

Chapter 4

Tokyo and Aichi Prefectures Along the Tokaido of the Goki-Shichido and Their Municipal Power

Abstract Prefectures located in eastern Japan with high population increases, (or low population decrease rates) in 2040 projections all fall along the Tokaido of the Goki Shichido. This chapter studied Tokyo and Aichi Prefectures in detail. The regional variations within each of these prefectures are quite outstanding. We examined their variations in municipal power by provincial differences within each prefecture. For the Tokyo Metropolis, we recognized that Chuo-ku of Musashi Province, Mikurajima-mura of Izu Province, and Hinohara-mura of the Okutama Region are distinctively different from one another in their municipal power and populationsustaining power. As for Aichi, these indicators of both Nagakute-shi of the Owari Region and Toei-cho of the Mikawa Region were investigated. These municipalities we studied are diverse, including a large city, a small city, a village on a remote island, and marginal settlements. Each of these municipalities developed its own revitalization policies to alleviate falling population, aging and fertility decline in their efforts to generate intergenerational dialogues. We found that each of their municipal power differs significantly from one municipality to the other even within the same prefecture, stemming from the han dynasty in the Tokugawa shogunate. Thus, it would be correct to say that differences in municipal power are likely due to the historical provincial variations in the Goki-Shichido of each municipality. These findings tell us that the impact of provincial differences of the Goki-Shichido on the regional revitalization of Japanese population today is too significant to ignore. Moreover, the current chapter revealed that it is of the utmost importance to pay close attention to municipal power, and the population-sustaining power of each community, not the prefecture as a whole, or Japan as a whole by any means.

Prefectures located in eastern Japan with high population increase rates, (or low population decrease rates) in 2040 projections are Tokyo, Aichi, Kanagawa, Saitama, and Chiba. They all fall along the Tokaido of the Goki-Shichido (the Eastern Sea Circuit, a road connecting Tokyo, Kyoto and other major cities of the Goki-Shichido) (for GokiShichido and Provinces see Figs. 1.12 and 1.13 in Chap. 1 of this book).1 This chapter will study Tokyo and Aichi Prefectures in detail. The regional variations within each of these prefectures are quite outstanding. We will examine their variations in municipal power by provincial divisions within each prefecture, established in the Taiho © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 F. Kumagai, Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4234-3_4

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Code of the Ritsuryo system in 701 discussed earlier in this book (refer to Chap. 1). For the Tokyo Metropolis, the municipal power and population-sustaining power of Chuo-ku of Musashi Province, Hinohara-mura of the Tama Region of Sagami Province, and Mikurajima-mura of Izu Province will be studied. As for Aichi, these indicators for Nagakute-shi of the Owari Region, Tokoname-shi, Chita Peninsula of the Owari Region, and Toei-cho of the Mikawa Region will be investigated.

4.1 Tokyo Metropolis, Chuo-ku of Musashi Province, Hinohara-mura of Sagami Province, and Mikurajima-mura of Izu Province 4.1.1 History of Musashi Province, Edo, and Tokyo Musashi Province (Musashi no Kuni, also called Bushu) was one of the 15 provinces of the Tokaido region of central Japan of the Goki-Shichido. Upon the establishment of the Kamakura Shogunate at the end of the 12th century Musashi was directly controlled by the Minamoto and Hojo families. After the Age of Provincial Wars, Tokugawa Ieyasu established his Shogunate in 1603. Then, Edo (present-day Tokyo, meaning eastern capital city) became the political center of Japan, although the imperial family stayed in Kyoto. At that time most of Musashi was administered directly by the Tokugawa Shogunate until the Meiji Restoration of 1868. Today, Musashi is divided into three prefectures: Tokyo (its southern part), Saitama (its northern part), and the eastern part of Kanagawa excluding both Yokohama and Kawasaki (Asai 2007a, b, Kodansha Encyclopedia of Japan 1983, Yawata 2009). Throughout the mid-Meiji Era, Tokyo was an extremely narrow municipality in comparison to the adjacent Sagami Province (also called Soushu) of Kanagawa prefecture today. It is because the San-Tama (Kita-Tama, Minami-Tama, NishiTama2 ), regions were not part of Tokyo, but of Kanagawa at that time. After politico-economic turmoil between Tokyo and Kanagawa prefectures these three Tama Regions were placed under the administration of Tokyo in September 1892 (Meiji 25). When the merging of Tokyo-fu (prefecture) and Tokyo-shi (city) to make the Tokyo Metropolis became a reality, these three Tama Regions were brought into the heated discussion. It is because the Tama Regions being agricultural, their economic disparity to Tokyo was evident, and Tokyoites were reluctant to include them within Tokyo. At the end, however, these three Tama Regions became part of the Tokyo Metropolis in July 1943. It was made possible due to three main reasons. First, they provided a green belt around the city, necessary for Tokyo to become an ideal city. Second, these three Tama Regions were ideal for military facilities, aiding the capital’s defense. And finally, during a disaster, the region could become an evacuation area (Asai 2007b: 81–85).

4.1 Tokyo Metropolis, Chuo-ku of Musashi Province …

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Of these three Tama Regions, only Nishi-Tama with Mizuho-machi, Hinodemachi, Okutama-machi, and Hinohara-mura still exists today and is called Nishitamagun (see Fig. 4.1), as all the municipalities in both Kita-Tama and Minami-Tama became cities by 1971. Today, approximately as much as one third of the total population of Tokyo (more than 4 million) reside in these three Tama Regions. (For

Fig. 4.1 Map of Tokyo Metropolis by municipality (23-ku (wards), 26-shi (cities,) 5-machi (towns), and 8-mura (villages) = Total of 62 Municipalities) (a) Tokyo Metropolis (b) Islands of Tokyo. Source Tokyo Metropolis Labelled Map, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Template:Tokyo_ Metropolis_Labelled_Map, and Japan Islands of Tokyo Map, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/ File:Japan_Islands_of_Tokyo_Map.svg, from Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. Accessed 10 Mar 2020

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locations of all the 62 municipalities in Tokyo today, refer to Fig. 4.1, Chuo-ku, Hinohara-mura in Nishitama-gun, and Mikurajima-mura are all circled.) As seen in Fig. 4.1 the area of Tokyo Metropolis stretches from the eastern tip, facing the Pacific Ocean, for a westerly distance of 1,619.9 km. It is the longest of the 47 prefectures, whose average length is of 182.7 km (Kokudo Chiri-inn 2018). It is expected, therefore, that the municipal power and socio-economic outlook will vary significantly from east to west. Other regions of Tokyo are two island regions, the Izu Islands and the Ogasawara Islands. As the name Izu signifies, during the Edo period the Izu islands were under the direct jurisdiction of the Edo Shogunate and known as Izu Province (also called Zushu). In 1876 (Meiji 9), however, both the Izu peninsula and the Izu Islands were placed in Shizuoka Prefecture. Two years later, in 1878, only the Izu Islands were included as part of Tokyo due to two main reasons. First, the economic interrelationship between the Izu Islands and Tokyo was inseparable, unlike that of the Izu Islands to Shizuoka. Second, the Izu Islands being directly south of Tokyo, were situated in a militarily important location. Thus, the Izu Islands were relocated into Tokyo, as were the Ogasawara Islands, which were an important military base for the Japanese army. After WWII the Ogasawara Islands were occupied by the U.S. army, until returned in 1968 (Asai 2007b: 86–88). From the brief history of Musashi Province, Edo, and Tokyo it is clear that Tokyo today is truly multi-faceted in its socio-economic and cultural background. And, therefore, its regional power should be multi-faceted, and would require analyzing by municipality. Thus, in order to investigate the population diversity of Tokyo let us divide it into the central city of old Musashi Province, the Tama Region which originally belonged to Sagami Province, and the Izu Islands of Izu Province. Representing each group we will inspect the municipal power closely of Chuo-ku, Hinohara-mura, and Mikurajima-mura.

4.1.2 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power of Tokyo, Musashi and Izu Provinces The municipal power of Tokyo was compared and contrasted (see Table 4.1). In looking at the generational family type, we are struck by the fact that a significantly large proportion of households in Hinohara-mura, nearly one-quarter (22.41%) today still adopt the traditional eastern agricultural ie system as Shimizu contends (1986, 1992). Chuo-ku, on the other hand, seems to have progressed into the modern type of nuclear family household. As for the household type of Mikurajima-mura, we must pay attention to the special living environment of the island which will be explained later in the current Sect. (4.1.6.2). The household type of Tokyo needs to be analyzed with caution. That is, districts where the people in Edo society live were designated by the hierarchy of samurai,

4.1 Tokyo Metropolis, Chuo-ku of Musashi Province …

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Table 4.1 Municipal power of Tokyo: Chuo-ku, Hinohara-mura, and Mikurajima-mura Municipality

Generational Marriage family household power 2013 2015 (%)a (%)b

Population-sustaining power 2013 (%)b

Japan average

13.29

5.30

−0.19

−6.3

Tokyo average

6.97

6.60

0.53

0.7

Chuo-ku Hinohara-mura Mikurajima-mura

Projected population increase rates 2015–2045 (%)c

5.11

12.11

3.24

34.9

22.41

1.63

−2.66

−62.4

0.00

3.18

−0.63

4.5

Sources a Statistics Bureau, MIAC 2018a, b, c b MIAC 2014 c IPSSR 2018b. The table is compiled and constructed by the author

farmers, artisans, and merchants (shi-no-kou-sho in Japanese). The Shitamachi are commercial districts where merchants and artisans resided in low-lying areas of the castle town (joka machi). The people in Shitamachi generated strong neighborhood ties of urban merchant cultural traditions life (Kodansha 1983). Districts that fall under Shitamachi in Tokyo today are to the east of the Sumida river including Chuoku, Taito-ku, Arakawa-ku, Sumida-ku, Edogawa-ku, Katsushika-ku, Adachi-ku, and Koto-ku (see Fig. 4.1). The Shitamachi contrasts with the yamanote (literally, the foothills), where samurai resided during the Edo period, and today the white-collar middle class live. Today, the yamanote districts include Shibuya-ku, Shinjyukuku, Nakano-ku, Suginami-ku, Meguro-ku, Chiyoda-ku, Minato-ku, and Bunkyo-ku. Thus, distinctive differences in socio-cultural traditions, social identity, and economic subsistence between the Shitamachi and the yamanote were generated. In fact, when we look at the distribution of generational family households of 62 municipalities in Tokyo today, there seem to be distinctive differences between districts. Municipalities in Nishitama ranked high on the generational family household index, followed by the Shitamachi districts except Chuo-ku, the yamanote districts, and the island regions. In other words, the traditional culture of the Jomon era seems to be present in these areas. The impact of the marriage power (X) on the population-sustaining power (Y) for 62 municipalities in Tokyo is highly significant (Y = −2.004 + 0.348X, adjusted R2 = 0.435, P = 0.000). The marriage power of Chuo-ku, however, is outstandingly strong, as is the population-sustaining power, and the projected population increase rate in 2045 is more than one-third of the 2015 national census population. On the contrary, the marriage power of Hinohara-mura is minimal, hence its populationsustaining power becomes negative, as does the projected population increase rate in 2045. Concerning Mikurajima-mura, marriages do occur less frequently here than in other municipalities of Tokyo, and therefore, the projected increase rate in 2045 is much higher than in Tokyo and nationally. These results of the municipal power of

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Tokyo suggest that we should analyze closely factors contributing to the projected population increase of Chuo-ku and Mikurajima-mura as well in 2045.

4.1.3 Population Changes by Age Group: Tokyo, Chuo-ku, Hinohara-mura, and Mikurajima-mura Projections for population increase rates in 2040 for Tokyo’s municipalities, not including the island regions, are presented by way of the GPS G-Census geographic tool. It is clear that the very central areas of Tokyo show projected increases in 2040, whereas the western part of Tokyo, Nishitama-gun, presents a projected population decline (see Fig. 4.2). Then, we are prompted to foresee that the population decline would be closely related to fertility decline and an increase in the older adult population in each municipality. By examining changes in the population proportion (%) of four age groups of Chuo-ku, Hinohara-mura, and Mikurajima-mura, our assumption seems to be correct (see Table 4.2). Proportions of the child population in Mikurajimamura have been and should be high, while those of older adult population have been

Fig. 4.2 Projected population increase rates by municipality for Tokyo: 2010–2040 (not including island regions). Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020

4.1 Tokyo Metropolis, Chuo-ku of Musashi Province …

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Table 4.2 Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Tokyo, Chuo-ku, Hinohara-mura, and Mikurajima-mura Japan

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

23.9

23.5

18.2

14.6

13.2

12.5

11.5

10.8

10.7

Working population 15–64

69.1

67.4

69.7

68.1

63.8

60.8

58.5

56.4

52.5

Older adults 65+ population

7.0

9.1

12.1

17.4

23.0

26.6

30.0

32.8

36.8

Old-olds 75+ population

2.1

3.1

4.8

7.1

11.1

12.8

17.8

19.6

21.4

Tokyo

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

20.6

14.7

11.8

11.4

11.3

10.9

10.4

10.3

Working population 15–64

71.6

74.7

72.3

62.8

66.8

65.5

63.1

59.0

Older adults 65+ population

7.7

10.6

15.9

20.4

22.7

23.6

26.5

30.7

2.6

4.2

6.3

9.4

10.9

14.1

14.2

16.7

Old-olds 75+ population Chuo-ku

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

17.5

13.3

9.7

10.5

11.9

12.9

12.4

12.2

Working population 15–64

69.2

71.3

72.0

73.6

72.0

72.1

69.5

64.6

Older adults 65+ population

13.3

15.4

18.3

15.9

16.1

15.0

18.1

23.3

4.6

6.9

7.8

7.4

7.6

8.6

8.3

10.9

Old-olds 75+ population Hinohara-mura

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

19.5

12.8

10.1

7.2

6.9

6.9

5.5

4.9

Working population 15–64

65.0

62.0

53.5

49.4

46.0

38.9

34.6

30.1

Older adults 65+ population

15.5

25.2

36.5

43.4

47.1

54.2

59.9

64.9

5.7

11.6

18.6

28.1

28.9

34.2

41.0

46.0

Old-olds 75+ population Mikurajima-mura

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

16.4

25.3

18.5

17.5

17.0

22.3

22.3

20.6

Working population 15–64

71.6

63.8

64.0

68.7

65.4

62.1

63.1

62.3

Older adults 65+ population

12.0

10.9

17.5

13.8

17.6

15.6

14.6

17.1

4.9

4.4

6.5

6.3

4.5

6.7

7.1

6.3

Old-olds 75+ population

Sources For 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2015 National Census; for 2025, 2035, and 2045 IPSSR 2018b. The table is compiled and constructed by the author

and should be lower than others on the list. Looking at the proportion for the oldolds (75+) population in Mikurajima-mura, there might be some particular reasons accounting for the situation. For example, life on the island might be hard for older people, and therefore, they are obliged to move to other areas. We will examine this in detail later in this chapter. Changes in the population proportion of Hinohara-mura contrast sharply to those of Chuo-ku, and of Mikurajima-mura, in particular. Hinohara-mura in 2015 is nearly at the marginal settlement (genkai shuuraku) state already. Its pace will accelerate to as high as 64.9% of the total population by 2045. Revenue would be limited, and the welfare cost would increase significantly. Let us, therefore, look at the

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socio-economic aspects of the municipal power of Chuo-ku, Mikurajima-mura, and Hinohara-mura to understand the present state of these municipalities.

4.1.4 Radar Chart of Tokyo: Chuo-ku, Mikurajima-mura, and Hinohara-mura Let us examine the EvaCva radar chart with 14 socio-economic indicators of Tokyo for these three municipalities, i.e. Chuo-ku, Hinohara-mura, and Mikurajima-mura (see Fig. 4.3). For an explanation of EvaCva, please refer to Chap. 2 on Methodology of this book. It is clear to see three distinctively different patterns of the radar chart among these three municipalities. As for Chuo-ku, the fact that both the social population growth (ranks 7th of all 1,742 municipalities in Japan tested on the index) and the natural population growth (ranks 12th) indices are quite high indicate high population increase rates as seen in Table 4.1. On the contrary, however, the low total fertility rate (TFR) index indicates that women are not having babies, but married adults are willing to form families. Thus, the great majority of people in Chuo-ku today are expected to be the working population. Chuo-ku has been providing residents of the child-rearing generation various preferential policies. The childcare fee for approved

Fig. 4.3 Tokyo radar chart: Chuo-ku, Mikurajima-mura, and Hinohara-mura. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. https://evacva.net/app/?lang= en&radar_dataset=default. Accessed 10 July 2018. Note Score for “0” indicates that no data is available for the index

4.1 Tokyo Metropolis, Chuo-ku of Musashi Province …

83

nursery schools in Chuo-ku is quite reasonable and ranks as second cheapest of all the 23 wards in Tokyo. Although the wealth index for Chuo-ku is high (ranks 5th), both the low security (ranks 1,728th) and the traffic safety (ranks 1,683rd) indices suggest that the living environment in Chuo-ku is poor and needs to be improved. However, a favorable index for medical facilities may give people a strong incentive to live there. The radar chart for Hinohara-mura contrasts significantly with its Chuo-ku counterpart. Socio-economic indicators and the natural population growth index are weak, and a large proportion of the municipal budget is spent for child and older adult welfare. It’s no surprise, then, that the great proportion of the people in Hinohara-mura are older adults, not productive and working. Hinohara-mura needs revitalization. In examining the radar chart for Mikurajima-mura, we expect that the people there lead fairly comfortable lives. Socio-economic indicators are strong, and living environments are quite favorable. In fact, employment, natural population growth, and security all ranked among the highest of the total 1,742 municipalities throughout Japan. However, perhaps due to the isolated island situation, the medical facility is not organized satisfactorily, and welfare programs for both children and older adults are not well organized. As seen in Table 4.2 a significantly small proportion of the people fall under the older adult population suggests that the great majority will leave the island due to the difficulties that they face in their daily living. Some may be surprised to see that within Tokyo significantly large variations in socio-economic indicators exist from one municipality to another. To understand why, it is necessary to divide Tokyo into three subgroups, namely, central Tokyo, originally of Musashi Province; the Tama Regions, originally of Sagami province of Kanagawa; and the island regions originally of Izu Province. These provinces are associated with the historical development of Tokaido during the Goki-Shichido. The differences in municipal power in present-day Tokyo are the product of the Goki-Shichido of the Ritsuryo era. Now, let us study in detail the municipal power of Chuo-ku and Mikurajima-mura, as both of them have demonstrated strong population increase trends. We would like to emulate their policies for the municipal revitalization of Japan.

4.1.5 Municipal Power of Chuo-ku: Commerce and Living 4.1.5.1

A Brief History of Chuo-ku

When Tokugawa Ieyasu began the Tokugawa Shogunate in Edo in 1603, the Ginza that took charge of money and grain was moved from Sunpu of Suruga Province (also called Sunshu, today’s Shizuoka Prefecture) to Edo. Furthermore, numerous bridges were constructed over rivers and moats throughout the castle town of Edo. The Nihonbashi became the central bridge in Edo, and was the starting point of the five national routes, namely the Tokaido, Nakasendo, Koshukaido, Nikkokaido, and Oushukaido.3 During the Edo era residences were divided by their status based on the medieval

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feudal system. With the coming of modernization in the Meiji era, differences in status and residential restrictions were abolished. Upon the Meiji Restoration in 1868 Edo was renamed Tokyo—the eastern capital as opposed to the western capital of Kyoto—and Tokyo was divided into 50 ku (wards) in 1869. In 1871, however, Tokyo was reorganized into 11 large and 103 small ku. In 1878 the 15-ku system was reorganized with six gun (counties) while Kyobashi-ku, and Nihonbashi-ku were established for the first time. In 1932 the 35-ku system was established, in which neighboring areas were divided into 20 ku and were added to the existing 15 ku. After World War II, in March of 1947, the 22-ku system was established in which both Kyobashi-ku and Nihonbashi-ku were merged into Chuo-ku, and in August Nerimaku became independent of Itabashi-ku, resulting in the 23-ku system of today (Chuo City Library 1994, 1995, 1996).

4.1.5.2

Three Areas of Chuo-ku and Their Municipal Power: Nihonbashi, Kyobashi, and Tsukishima Areas

Chuo-ku is commonly divided into three areas, namely the Kyobashi, Nihonbashi, and Tsukishima Areas, and each area has its own characteristics. The population of Chuo-ku today is 161,456 (as of October 1, 2018) and is continuing to grow (Chuo-ku Home Page 2018a). In the Kyobashi Area slightly less than one-quarter (23.8%) of the total population of Chuo-ku resides. The area includes such historic districts as Ginza, Yaesu, Kyobashi, Takaracho, Shintomi, Irifune, Minato, Akashicho, Tsukiji, and Shinkawa. All of them still maintain the emotion of the Edo era. The Ginza district, however, recently had an influx of foreign brand-name stores owned and run by non-Japanese managerial staff. Therefore, the Kyobashi Area today combines the amicable coexistence of Edo emotion and international charms (Chuo City Office 2018b). In the Nihonbashi Area a little less than one-third (30.5%) of the Chuo-ku population resides. Districts extending from the Nihonbashi-Honcho where Tokugawa Ieyasu conducted the first geographic measurements to the Muro-machi districts, have been prosperous with department stores, and Kayaba-cho, and Kabuto-cho have developed as financial business districts. On the other hand, in the Horidomecho, Kodenma-cho, Oodenma-cho, Yokoyama-cho, and Bakuro-cho districts there is a high concentration of fiber and textile wholesalers. The Tsukishima Area is composed of five districts: Tsukuda, Tsukishima, Kachidoki, Toyomi, and Harumi. They were all man-made, by filling areas of Tokyo bay under the slogan of economic enrichment, to make Japan strong by fostering industry in Japan. The area did not get any serious damage from the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923, or World War II. Japanese nagaya (tenement and row houses) used to be characteristic of the area reflecting downtown Tokyo. Since around the year 2000, however, the area has changed dramatically with the construction of high-rise condominiums. As a consequence, there has been an influx of people into the area, especially young working adults and their families. Nearly half (45.7%) of the population in Chuo-ku

4.1 Tokyo Metropolis, Chuo-ku of Musashi Province …

85

today resides in the Tsukishima Area, and the proportion is projected to increase by more than half by the year 2046 (Chuo City Office 2016). It is amazing to see the diversity and variety within the single municipality of Chuo-ku. When we look at its population the same is true. It used to be the Nihonbashi Area, one of Japan’s leading wholesale districts, where population growth in Chuo-ku was outstanding. Today, however, changes in the distribution structure of Japan obliged Chuo-ku to change also. As a consequence, large- and medium-scale wholesalers closed their businesses, and built condominiums on the land. Today, however, large scale development on the waterfront in the Tsukishima Area has had significant impact on the population increase in Chuo-ku. As has been discussed above, distributional proportion in the population among these three areas differ today, and the trend is expected to continue in the future. The Tsukishima Area, in particular, is expected to see a population increase, as housing facilities, currently under construction for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, will be used for permanent housing afterwards. Projected changes in the population distribution among these three areas from 2018 to 2046 are as follows: Kyobashi Area, 23.8–20.0%; Nihonbashi Area, 30.5–28.7%; and Tsukishima Area, 45.7% to 51.3% (Chuo City Office 2016). The municipal power of Chuo-ku, Tokyo, could therefore be summarized as having a low proportion of generational family households, a strong marriage power, and strong population-sustaining power. We should remember, however, population increase entails not only positive aspects, but also negative features to the lives of human beings. With a population of more than 160,000 today in Chuo-ku, nurseries and schools for primary education lag far behind the demand. Since the summer of 2018 Chuo-ku has been obliged to enforce measures to control the inflow of people, such as relaxing the floor-area ratio of housing. In doing so, it is expected to suppress construction of high-rise condominiums (Chuo City Office 2018a). At any rate, the population of Chuo-ku, Tokyo is projected to continue to increase for some time (see Tables 4.1, 4.2).

4.1.6 Municipal Power of Mikurajima-mura: Policies for Young Adults 4.1.6.1

A Brief Outlook of Mikurajima

Mikurajima is one of the Izu Islands comprised of 11 islands directly south of Tokyo. As the name of Izu connotes, together with the Izu peninsula, they used to belong to the Izu (also called Zushu) Province, Shizuoka Prefecture today. In 1878, however, the Izu Islands were incorporated into Tokyo due to their long-standing relationship with Edo rather than the Izu Province. That is, as the Izu Islands did not produce any rice, the Edo shogunate asked islanders to contribute such products as salt and Kihachijyo silk fabrics, instead. Then, the Edo shogunate provided them with rice. People in the Izu Islands come to Edo to sell products like silk fabrics, camellia

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oil, and fish, and they returned to the islands with food and daily commodities that they purchased in Edo. This relationship between the Izu islands and Edo continued to the Meiji era. Consequently, the people in the Izu Islands had much stronger affinities and relationships with Tokyo rather than the Izu Peninsula of Izu Province. Thus, the administrative affairs of the Izu Islands people such as taxation and family registration, were handled by branch offices in Tokyo rather than the Izu peninsula. The Izu Islands are very important for economic and military reasons, so that they were changed to belong administratively to the Tokyo Metropolis from Shizuoka Prefecture in 1878 (Asai 2007b). When we hear a municipality is on an island, we are tempted to assume it has a small, aging population. When it comes to Mikurajima, however, the situation is somewhat different. Mikurajima is a volcanic island, located on the Pacific Ocean, approximately 200 km south by southwest of Tokyo, with 5 km diameter, and 20.5 km2 in area (see Fig. 4.1). It is a part of Fuji-Hakone Izu National Park, and nearly all the island is designated as a national park. Among all the islands in Japan, Mikurajima perhaps is one of the most blessed with natural beauty. Thus, people have settled into the outside of the National Park district located in the northwestern district of the island (Mikurajima-mura 2016).

4.1.6.2

Changes in the Population of Mikurajima-mura

The total population of Mikurajima-mura was at its peak, 406, in 1950. It declined to as low as 177 by 1975, but then increased to 348 people in 198 households by 2010. Since then, however, it has been on the decline, to 319 people (168 males and 151 females) and 175 households as of October 1, 2018 (Mikurajima-mura Office 2019). In looking at the municipal power of Mikurajima-mura in Table 4.1 we noticed some interesting characteristics. The proportion of generational households is nil, although the marriage power suggests that marriages do take place. The populationsustaining power of 2013 is slightly below zero, but the projected population increase rate for 2045 is 4.5%, much higher than the Tokyo and Japan averages. What do these statistics mean? It would be expected that the older adult population would be low, while child population would be high. In fact, as seen in Table 4.2, the proportion of the projected child population in 2045 (20.6%) should be twice as high as the Japan and Tokyo average counterparts. However, the proportion of the older adult population in 2045 (17.1%) should be nearly half the average for both Japan and Tokyo. We came to question the factors operating underneath these peculiar phenomena. The Mikurajima-mura Tourism Association has some answers. That is, schools on Mikurajima are only through junior high school, and consequently, families with children who complete a primary education are obliged to leave the island for schools elsewhere. However, over the past ten years an increasing number of Mikurajimamura people who once left the island for study or work (those who are in their 20, 30, and 40 s) are returning to their hometown (village) to live permanently. In fact, 30 (23 males and 7 females) of the total 71 (37 males and 34 females) graduates of

4.1 Tokyo Metropolis, Chuo-ku of Musashi Province …

87

Mikurajima-mura junior high school returned to the island. The majority of these males were married, quite frequently to females who visited for dolphin-watching activities. In addition, when the people from Mikurajima-mura decide to return to the island, jobs are preferentially provided to them in public offices in Mikurajimamura. These jobs are at such offices as the Mikurajima-mura office, social welfare council, post office, agriculture council, fishery council, construction industries, etc. (Mikurajima Tourism Association 2015). Arranging a job, residence, and marriage for those who are returning to Mikurajima-mura would be very effective measures for regional revitalization.

4.1.6.3

Measures Needed for Population Increase for Mikurajima-mura

The population changes and projections of Mikurajima-mura suggest us to consider three issues for them to work on. First, a long-term settlement policy must be established. One of the reasons for the population increase in Mikurajima-mura is that of the social population growth of relatively younger generations. Nevertheless, they will leave the island when they confront critical changes in their life such as marriage, giving birth, and/or a new job, off-island. Therefore, some effective long-term policies for people to live permanently on the island are needed. Second, as the tourism-based economic revitalization is one of the strongest areas of municipal power of Mikurajima-mura, a new type of industry needs to be implemented, that of diversifying the primary industry, which is called the sixth sector industrialization.4 (Nogyo Kumiai Shinbun 2006). It’s a realization that many jobs are intertwined with others, such as fishing, processing plants and markets. Third, some attractive methods must be introduced so people understand change is needed in Mikurajima. In other words, such policies should be for people visiting Mikurajima, so they feel they are not only tourists, but also possible future residents. Mikurajima-mura Office aims at increasing its population to 500 by the year 2060 (Mikurajima-mura Office 2016), but a more realistic projection, by IPSSR 2018a, would be 350 by the year 2045. Nevertheless, in order to achieve their aggressive population vision for 2060 the aforementioned three measures should be implemented. If and only if they are carried out will an attractive revitalization of Mikurajima-mura materialize. As long as the people concerned are willing to evaluate both positive and negative aspects of their municipal power it would surely come true.

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4.2 Aichi Prefecture, Nagakute-shi of Owari Province, and Toei-cho of Mikawa Province 4.2.1 How Aichi Prefecture Was Brought About Now let us turn our discussion of municipal power to Aichi Prefecture. It is one of the few prefectures in eastern Japan whose population-sustaining power showed positive in 2013, and it is the only prefecture in eastern Japan not in the greater metropolitan Tokyo area. When many Japanese people think of Aichi Prefecture, the first thing that comes to mind is the city of Nagoya. However, in studying the municipal power based on the regional variation of Japan, we question our assumption that Aichi Prefecture is represented by Nagoya-shi. In order to answer this question, understanding a brief history of Aichi Prefecture is essential. Prior to the era of the Taiho Code of 701, today’s Aichi Prefecture was divided into three provinces, namely Owari (Kiso-gawa and Shonai-gawa areas), Mikawa (Yahagi-gawa area in Nishi-Mikawa), and Ho (Toyokawa area in Higashi-Mikawa) (Aichi Prefecture 2011). Then, under the Taiho Code, these three provinces were merged into two provinces, i.e., Mikawa and Owari, to become 2 of the 15 provinces of the Tokaido circuit of the Goki-Shichido. These two provinces lasted throughout the end of the Edo period. It should also be noted that all three samurai lords of the Sengoku era (the Age of Provincial Wars) in Japan, Oda Nobunaga, Toyotomi Hideyoshi, and Tokugawa Ieyasu, were all born in the ancient Aichi Prefecture. As the personalities of these great lords differ tremendously,5 so do the traditions, socio-economic outlook, and culture in this region. Moreover, of approximately 50 samurai lords of the Edo era who earned more than one million koku of rice, two-thirds were from today’s Aichi Prefecture (Takemitsu 2009, Yawata 2009). When the Haihan-chiken (abolition of feudal domains and establishment of prefectures) was enforced in 1871 (Meiji 4) 12 prefectures were established from two provinces. Then, a year later in November 1872 they were all integrated into Aichi Prefecture. At the time when Aichi Prefecture was created there were more than 2,900 municipalities. However, after the Great Mergers of Meiji and Showa the total number of municipalities was reduced to 88 by 1970.6 Afterwards for more than 30 years there was no merging of municipalities in Aichi Prefecture, but under the Great Merger of Heisei7 these 88 municipalities were further merged into the 54 municipalities (38 shi, 14 cho/machi, and 2 son/mura) of today (see Fig. 4.4). Today, Aichi Prefecture is composed of two major regions, the western half of Owari which includes Nagoya district, and the eastern half of Mikawa (see Fig. 4.4). Naturally, each of these regions has generated different cultural traditions and socio-economic standards.

4.2 Aichi Prefecture, Nagakute-Shi of Owari Province …

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Fig. 4.4 Map of Aichi Prefecture by municipality and by district (38 cities, 14 towns, and 2 villages = Total of 54 municipalities). Source GIS free color map, https://n.freemap.jp/st/list.html, and https://n.freemap.jp/tp/Aichi. Accessed 8 Mar 2020. The map is drawn by the author

4.2.2 Mikawa Province vs. Owari Province Mikawa and Owari Provinces hold different histories, traditions, and socio-cultural backgrounds. How do they differ? Mikawa Province (also called Sanshu) was one of the 15 provinces of Tokaido established under the Goki-Shichido, and is comprised of the eastern half of Aichi Prefecture today. During the Heian period (794–1192), lords in Mikawa Province built only small manors since they were on the plateau

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and a lack of water supply was not suitable for agriculture. During the Kamakura era (1192–1333), Ashikaga Yoshiuji, a powerful samurai warrior of the Kanto region moved in, and his progeny established headquarters in various areas of Mikawa. The Ashikaga clan, including the Hosokawa, Niki, Kira, Imagawa, and Isshiki families, was successful in developing land suitable for agriculture. The Ashikaga clan held the samurai morals of the Kanto area, such as frugality, courage, and loyalty, which were emulated by the existing samurai warriors in the Mikawa Region. As a consequence, Bushido (samurai spirit, chivalry) was cultivated throughout the Mikawa Region. Thus, despite the region being located in the middle of the Honshu islands, the personality of the people became similar to those from Kanto. During the Muromachi period (1338–1573) many of the Ashikaga clan left Mikawa Province to become shugodaimyo (provincial military governors) in various regions of Japan. What they left was the so-called personality of Mikawa Bushi based on the Bushido which was succeeded by the vassals of the Tokugawa. During the Edo period (1603–1867) the Tokugawa shogunate paid respect to Owari Province, and intentionally created small clan divisions in Mikawa Province. Thus, during the Edo period, Mikawa Province received strong cultural influences from Owari (Takemitsu 2009). Owari Province (also called Bishu) was one of the 15 provinces of Tokaido established under the Goki-Shichido, and is comprised of the western half of Aichi Prefecture today. In early times, it was the site of the Atsuta Shrine where one of the Three Secret Treasures of the Emperor8 is located, and was the half-way point between the capital and eastern Japan. During the Heian period (794–1185) the imperial family held large landed estates (shoen) with powerful temples and shrines in this fertile region. From the 12th century onward the Owari Province came under the domination of such military governor clans (shugo) as the Hatakeyama Clan, the Imagawa Clan, and later the Shiba Clan. Late in the Muromachi period (1333–1568) the power of the Oda Family as deputy military governors (shugodai) in Owari increased, and Oda Nobunaga emerged to dominate the region and eventually most of the country; his successor as military hegemon, Toyotomi Hideyoshi, also came from Owari. After Tokugawa Ieyasu founded the Tokugawa shogunate (1603–1867), his ninth son, Yoshinao (1600–1650), was assigned to the region, and established his headquarters at Nagoya Castle. His descendants exercised great influence as one of the three cadet houses (Gosanke) of the Tokugawa. Nagoya and its hinterland flourished as a major commercial and agricultural center, known for its rice, cotton, sake, and ceramics called Seto-mono. With the establishment of the prefectural system in 1871, Owari was combined with Mikawa Province to form Aichi Prefecture (Kodansha 1983, Takemitsu 2009). The brief history of Mikawa and Owari Provinces discussed above helps explain differences in the personalities of the people in Aichi Prefecture today, Mikawa Region of Bushido, and Owari of mercenary spirit.

4.2 Aichi Prefecture, Nagakute-Shi of Owari Province …

4.2.2.1

91

Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power of Aichi Prefecture: Owari and Mikawa Provinces

The municipal power of household type, marriage power, population-sustaining power, and projected population increase rates from 2015 to 2045 of Aichi Prefecture in the former Owari and Mikawa Provinces are compared and contrasted (see Table 4.3). Looking at the generational family household in 2015, we notice the average rate for Aichi Prefecture is much higher than the Japan average proportion, and that of Toei-cho of Higashi-Mikawa Region is outstandingly high. In fact, the average rate for the Mikawa Region on this index is 18.7% (Higashi-Mikawa average, 21.7%, Nishi-Mikawa average, 15.7%). High rates for the generational family household in the Mikawa Region, especially of the western part of the Mikawa Region (for example, Tahara-shi, 34.25%; Shinshiro-shi, 28.15%; Shitara-cho, 28.09%; and Toei-cho, 26.87%) is taken as evidence of the strong influence of the provincial culture of Mikawa in the Edo shogunate, and the Jomon culture which flourished in the northeastern region of Japan. On the other hand, the generational family household rates in the Owari Region today are significantly lower than their Mikawa Region counterparts. The average rate for Nagoya-shi for its 16 wards is 9.63% (ranging from the highest of Nakamuraku, 13.73%, to the lowest of Meitou-ku, 6.11%), and that of Owari Region is 19.7% ranging from the high of 27.72% in Minamichita-machi to the low of 6.67% in Nagakute-shi and 6.11% in Meito-ku of Nagoya-shi. Among the municipalities in the Owari Region, those located in the Chita Peninsula score high (e.g. Minamichitamachi, 27.72%; Mihama-machi, 19.62%; and Tokoname-shi, 15.55%), where the mixture of Mikawa and Owari culture might have been generated. Thus, we can say that regional variations in marriage power strongly reflect the Mikawa vs. Owari provincial differences in Tokaido of Goki-Shichido. Table 4.3 Municipal power of Aichi Prefecture: Nagakute-shi, Tokoname-shi, and Toei-cho Municipality

Generational family household 2015 (%)a

Marriage power 2013 (%)b

Population-sustaining power 2013 (%)b

Projected population increase rates 2015–2045 (%)c

Japan average

13.29

5.30

−0.19

−6.3

Aichi average

19.35

5.80

0.16

−7.8 22.7

Nagakute-shi

6.67

6.66

2.58

Tokoname-shi

15.55

4.99

1.09

5.7

Toei-cho

26.87

2.17

−2.07

−54.2

Sources a Statistics Bureau, MIAC 2018a, b, c b MIAC 2014 c IPSSR 2018b. The table is compiled and constructed by the author

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The impact of marriage power (X) on the population-sustaining power (Y) for 54 municipalities in Aichi Prefecture is highly significant (Y = –2.221 + 0.413X, adjusted R2 = 0.430, P = 0.000). The marriage power of Nagakute-shi, however, is outstandingly strong, as is its population-sustaining power, with a projected population increase rate in 2045 that is nearly one-quarter more than its 2015 national census population. On the contrary, the marriage power of Toei-cho in HigashiMikawa is quite small, hence its population-sustaining power becomes negative, as does its projected population increase rate in 2045. We can imagine that Toei-cho in 2045 will become a marginal settlement with the older adult population well over one-half of the total population (see Table 4.3). These results of municipal power for Aichi Prefecture suggest that we should analyze closely factors contributing to the projected population increase in 2045 of Nagakute-shi, Tokoname-shi, and Toei-cho as well.

4.2.3 Population Changes by Age Group: Aichi, Nagakute-shi, Tokoname-shi, and Toeicho Projections for population increase rates by municipality in 2040 in Aichi Prefecture are presented by way of the GPS G-Census geographic tool. It is clear that areas located in the western part of Aichi, i.e., the Owari Regions, show projected increases in 2040, whereas the eastern part of Aichi, both Higashi and Nishi-Mikawa Regions, project a population decline (see Fig. 4.5). Then, we are prompted to foresee that the population decline would be closely related to fertility decline and an increase in the older adult population in each municipality. By examining changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups of Nagakute-shi, Tokoname-shi, and Toei-cho, our assumption seems to be correct (see Table 4.4). Proportions of child population in both Nagakute-shi and Tokoname-shi in the Owari Region have been and should be high, while those of older adults population have been and should be much lower than others on the list, i.e., the Japan average, the Aichi average, and Toei-cho. Looking at the proportion for the old-olds (75+) population in Nagakute-shi which is the lowest on the list, we speculate that there might be some particular reasons accounting for the situation. For example, Nagakute-shi is adjacent to such large cities as Nagoya and Toyota (see Fig. 4.4). Living in Nagakute-shi might be hard for older people, prompting them to move to other areas. We will examine this in detail later in this chapter. Changes in the population proportion of Toei-cho of the Mikawa Region are quite contrasting to those of Nagakute-shi and Tokoname-shi of Owari. Toei-cho in 2015 is nearly at the marginal settlement state already. It is projected to rise to as high as 55.8% of the total population by 2045. In other words, revenue would be limited, and the welfare cost would increase significantly. Let us, therefore, look at the socioeconomic aspects of municipal power of Nagakute-shi, Tokoname-shi, and Toei-cho to understand the present state of these municipalities.

4.2 Aichi Prefecture, Nagakute-Shi of Owari Province …

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Fig. 4.5 Projected population increase rates by municipality for Aichi Prefecture: 2010–2040. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020

4.2.4 Radar Chart of Aichi: Nagakute-shi, Tokoname-shi, and Toei-cho Let us examine the EvaCva radar chart with 14 socio-economic indicators of Aichi Prefecture for these three municipalities, i.e. Nagakute-shi, Tokoname-shi, and Toeicho (see Fig. 4.6). For an explanation of EvaCva, please refer to Chap. 2 on Methodology of this book. It is clear to see three distinctively different patterns in the radar chart among these three municipalities. As for Nagakute-shi, the fact that both the social population growth (ranks 18th of all the 1,742 municipalities in Japan) and the natural population growth (ranks 7th) indices are quite high indicate high population increase rates as seen in Table 4.3. The low total fertility rate (TFR) index (Nagakute-shi ranks 571st, Tokoname-shi, 1,186th), however, indicates that women are not having babies, but married adults are willing to form families. Thus, the great majority of the people in Nagakute-shi and Tokoname-shi today are expected to be working. The fact that the child welfare program of these cities is not high (Nagakute-shi ranks 1633th,

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Table 4.4 Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Aichi, Nagakute-shi, Tokoname-shi, and Toei-cho Japan

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

23.9

23.5

18.2

14.6

13.2

12.5

11.5

10.8

10.7

Working population 15–64

69.1

67.4

69.7

68.1

63.8

60.8

58.5

56.4

52.5

Older adults 65+ population

7.0

9.1

12.1

17.4

23.0

26.6

30.0

32.8

36.8

Old-olds 75+ population

2.1

3.1

4.8

7.1

11.1

12.8

17.8

19.6

21.4

Aichi

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

25.0

18.5

15.4

14.5

13.8

12.5

11.8

11.8

Working population 15–64

67.6

71.7

70.1

65.2

62.4

61.4

59.2

55.1

Older adults 65+ population

7.4

9.8

14.5

20.3

23.8

26.2

29.0

33.1

2.4

3.9

5.6

8.9

10.8

15.7

16.5

18.5

Old-olds 75+ population Nagakute-shi

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

25.2

18.9

16.5

17.2

17.2

16.8

16.0

15.7

Working population 15–64

68.4

74.6

74.9

69.6

67.3

65.5

62.8

57.8

Older adults 65+ population

6.4

6.5

8.5

13.2

15.5

17.7

21.2

26.5

Old-olds 75+ population

1.8

2.5

3.2

5.3

6.4

10.1

11.2

13.7

Tokoname-shi

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

24.0

17.3

14.7

14.2

14.4

15.1

15.0

14.9

Working population 15–64

65.9

69.0

65.3

62.1

59.9

59.9

60.2

57.3

Older adults 65+ population

10.2

13.7

20.0

23.7

25.6

25.0

24.8

27.9

3.6

5.7

8.3

11.2

12.7

14.9

14.2

14.5

Old-olds 75+ population Toei-cho

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

16.5

13.7

10.6

8.0

8.1

7.9

7.3

7.0

Working population 15–64

65.2

60.2

49.0

44.2

43.2

38.6

38.5

37.2

Older adults 65+ population

18.4

26.2

40.3

47.8

48.8

53.6

54.2

55.8

8.1

10.2

19.0

30.7

30.8

34.6

39.2

38.3

Old-olds 75+ population

Sources For 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2015 National Census; for 2025, 2035, and 2045 IPSSR 2018b. The table is compiled and constructed by the author

Tokoname-shi, 971st), indicates that these programs might not be in high demand among residents in these cities. Although the wealth index for Nagakute-shi is high (ranks 24th), both the low security (1,687th) and the traffic safety (1,535th) indices suggest the living environment in Nagakute-shi is poor and needs to be improved, but the favorable index for municipal finance, and convenience for commuting to work may give people a strong incentive to live there (overall rating for Nagakute-shi is 33rd of all the 1,742 municipalities). The radar chart for Toei-cho contrasts with of Nagakute-shi, and Tokoname-shi. Socio-economic indicators are weak, the natural population growth index is nearly at the bottom (1,724th), not many people move in (social population growth ranks

4.2 Aichi Prefecture, Nagakute-Shi of Owari Province …

95

Fig. 4.6 Aichi Prefecture radar chart: Nagakute-shi, Tokoname-shi, and Toei-cho. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. https://evacva.net/ app/?lang=en&radar_dataset=default. Accessed 10 July 2018. Note Score for “0” indicates that no data is available for the index

562nd), a large proportion of the municipal budget is spent for medical facilities (ranks 34th), and for child welfare programs, 52nd). All of these together place the overall evaluation for Toei-cho 355th of the total 1,742 municipalities. We expect that the great proportion of the people in Toei-cho would be older adults, but not in the productive and working population (as seen in Table 4.4). It is imminent for Toei-cho to consider effective measures for revitalization. In examining the radar chart for Tokoname-shi, we expect that socioeconomicindices and living environment indices would be in between Nagakute-shi and Toei-cho. That is, their socio-economic indicators are not as strong as those of Nagakute-shi, but their child welfare (ranks 971st) is much better than the Nagakuteshi counterpart (ranks 1,633rd). In fact, of the 14 socio-economic indicators, municipal revenue (ranks 93rd) and finance (ranks 85th), and the social population growth (ranks 35th) are quite strong. Consequently, the overall rating for Tokoname-shi is 222nd. It is surprising to see that within Aichi Prefecture significantly large regional variations in socio-economic indicators exist from one municipality to another. Thus, for the correct understanding of Aichi Prefecture it is necessary to divide Aichi into two subgroups, namely, its eastern half originally of Mikawa Province (then afterwards divided into its eastern part of Higashi-Mikawa, and its western part of Nishi-Mikawa), and the western half originally of Owari Province. These provinces are associated with the historical development of the Tokaido of Goki-Shichido. Thus, we are correct to say that differences in municipal power in present-day prefecture are the product of the Goki-Shichido of the Ritsuryo era. Now, let us study in detail

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the municipal power of Nagakute-shi and Toei-cho in Aichi Prefecture as they are at the extreme ends of both positive and negative projected population increase rates in 2045.

4.2.5 Municipal Power of Nagakute-shi of Owari Region: The Youngest City in Japan 4.2.5.1

History of Nagakute

Nagakute-shi is surrounded by big cities: on the east side of Nagoya, on the west side of Toyota, on the south side of Seto, and on the north side of Nisshin of Owari Region. Its area is 21.55 km2 , with a population of 58,110 and 23,684 households as of October 1, 2018. The average age of its citizens in the 2015 national census was 38.6 years of age, the youngest average of all 1,742 municipalities in Japan today, and the population increase rate is the highest of all 54 municipalities in Aichi Prefecture (Nagakute City 2018). The history of Nagakute as a city has been brief, in fact the briefest of all the 795 cities including 23 special wards of Tokyo in Japan today (as of November 11, 2018, e-Stat 2018). Nagakute-shi is well-known for its history and tradition. It was the main site of the Komaki-Nagakute no Tatakai (Battle of Komaki and Nagakute), on April 9, 1584, where the armies of Hashiba (later changed to Toyotomi) Hideyoshi clashed headon with the forces of Oda Nobukatsu (the eldest son of Nobunaga) and Tokugawa Ieyasu. The battle was a seesaw affair with continuous offensive and defensive action. However, when Hideyoshi’s leading generals fell in battle, fortune shifted to the favor of Oda-Tokugawa. The battle ended in a great victory for Oda and Tokugawa, and several of Hideyoshi’s lords and commanders, including Ikeda Tsuneoki, died in the fighting. The number of dead reached 3,000 in what is known as the Battle of Nagakute. It led to Ieyasu establishing the Tokugawa shogunate. Many historical remains from this battle are found in Nagakute, including the graves of valiants such as Ikeda Tsuneoki, Mori Nagayoshi, and other commanders under Hideyoshi (Nagakute City Tourism Exchange Association 2018). Prior to the Meiji era, Nagakute was divided into five villages: Kitakuma, Ookusa, Maekuma, Iwasa, and Nagakute. Then, in 1906 (Meiji 39) these five villages were merged into Nagakute-mura, and after 75 years the village became Nagakute-machi in 1971 (Showa 46). When the population of Nagakute-machi exceeded 50,000 in January 2012, it became Nagakute-shi.

4.2.5.2

Population Changes in Nagakute-shi

Nagakute-shi is one of the few municipalities in Japan in which the population has been continuously increasing since the early part of the Showa era when its population

4.2 Aichi Prefecture, Nagakute-Shi of Owari Province …

97

was about 5,000 (1935, 4,985). The population doubled during the rapid economic growth of Japan in the post-WWII period (1970, 11,317), and under the development of the Nagoya area its population exceeded 50,000, and became a city in 2012 as discussed above (2012: 52,022). Ever since then, the population has been on the rise (57,598 in 2015) and most recently 58,110 in October 2018) (Nagakute City 2018a, 2018b). According to the projection of IPSSR (2018b) the population of Nagakute-shi in 2045 would be 70,660 (22.7% increase from that of 2015). Its projected increase rate is the 13th highest of all the municipalities throughout Japan. The average age of Nagakute-shi citizens in 2045 would be 44.1 years of age, and 5.5 years increment from that of 38.6 years in 2015 (Nagakute City 2018a). Thus, even the populationgrowing Nagakute-shi will face fertility decline and population aging in the years to come, as has been discussed earlier (see Table 4.4).

4.2.5.3

Reasons for Population Increase in Nagakute-shi

Four major reasons could be pointed out for such a remarkable century-long population increase in Nagakute-shi: its location, commuter services, comfortable living, and the popularity of a college town with cultural facilities and natural environments. First, Nagakute-shi is located in the northwestern Owari district of the northwestern region of Aichi Prefecture, on the west side of Nagoya-shi, and adjacent to Toyota-shi, the headquarters of the world-renown Toyota Motor Corp. Moreover, the Linimo9 Maglev Train, a popular name for the Aichi Kosoku Kotsu Tobu Kyuryou Sen, which connects Nagakute-shi to the center of Nagoya-shi in 40 min. The Linimo services began in 2005 when the Aichi Expo was held, and for the first time the people in Nagakute-shi were able to use train services operating in the area. The Linimo played a significant role in the development of Nagakute-shi, bringing travel convenience to the city. Second, Nagakute-shi has been developing as a commuter town to the larger city of Nagoya, with a trip of less than an hour. As the residential area developed, an in-flow of young adults with child-rearing families blossomed. As a consequence, proportions of both child and working populations are high, but there are few older adults. However, Nagakute-shi in the future will also face an aging population and more than a quarter of its population is projected to be older adults by the year 2045 (see Table 4.4). Third, Nagakute-shi provides for an enjoyable life. According to the report on livability10 Nagakute-shi ranks second of all the 795 cities (including 23 special wards of Tokyo).11 More specifically, its security ranks 19th, convenience 6th, comfortableness 7th, wealth 36th, and housing quality 723th, resulting in the second highest overall rank. The low evaluation for security and traffic safety dropped Nagakuteshi from the top to second place. This is similar to the EvaCva radar chart ranking discussed earlier. Fourth, Nagakute-shi presents a good living environment. A typical college town with four higher educational institutions,12 the city is also enriched with natural

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4 Tokyo and Aichi Prefectures Along the Tokaido of the Goki-Shichido …

surroundings and cultural facilities, all of which enhance the attractiveness of Nagakute-shi.

4.2.5.4

Unresolved Issues of Nagakute-shi

There are three major issues that Nagakute-shi must resolve in the future: development of countermeasures for the aging society, a program to keep college graduates from leaving the city, and an effective use of tourism resources. As we have noticed already, the population of Nagakute-shi has been continuously on the rise ever since the beginning of the Showa era, and is projected to continue into the year 2045. Afterwards, the aging process will accelerate rapidly. Thus, it is urgently requested to Nagakute-shi to propose countermeasures in pursuit of productive aging as proposed by Robert Neil Butler in his Pulitzer Prize-winning work of 1975.13 Productive aging could be said as successful aging, brought about by achieving personal satisfaction, and making a social contribution. In order to achieve successful aging of people in Nagakute-shi, it is essential to consider long-range measures now when the population of the city is still on the rise. It should never be postponed to the time when Nagakute-shi launches into the population-declining society. The number of college students who studied in Nagakute-shi and leave the city upon graduation has been increasing dramatically recently. One of the countermeasures for the problem would be to initiate collaborative research projects with the participation of universities, businesses, and administrative sectors. Should such projects materialize, students of all disciplines would have opportunities to make the best use of what they learned locally without leaving the city to work. Centering around the city of Toyota, Aichi is one of the leading industrial prefectures in Japan. Thus, it would be suggested that college graduates who once left Nagakute-shi for higher education return to the greater Nagoya region to work. Those who return to live in Nagakute-shi may need assistance in finding housing. Should these supporting programs be organized, the youthful generations which once left Nagakute-shi may be encouraged to return. Nagakute-shi is abundant with sightseeing attractions such as museums, historical sites, festivals, and parks14 (Nagakute Tourism Association 2018). Regrettably, however, they are not well publicized in and outside of Aichi Prefecture. Even if policies for Nagakute-shi to bring in tourists were successful, they would not directly result in an increase in the settled population. It is hoped that advanced information and communication technology (ICT) policies may be helpful. While the population increase in Nagakute-shi is in progress, policies discussed above should be implemented. If and only if they are put in place, would problems associated with the population decline will be minimalized.

4.2 Aichi Prefecture, Nagakute-Shi of Owari Province …

99

4.2.6 Municipal Power of Toei-cho: Tehohe Festival 4.2.6.1

History of Toei-cho of the Mikawa Region Since the Jomon Era

Toei-cho is situated in the northeastern part of Aichi Prefecture, the Oku-Mikawa Region, and its eastern tip is adjacent to the western end of Totoumi (also called Enshu) of today’s Shizuoka Prefecture. The area is outstanding for its steep terrain, from 170 to 1,000 m above sea level, across the short range of 15 km (Toei Town Office 2018). Today, Toei-cho is one of the most seriously population-declining municipalities in Aichi Prefecture (the population-declining rate from 2015 to 2045 is projected at −54.2% as seen in Table 4.3). The history of the people who lived in the area goes as far back as the Jomon period (about 131 BC–4 BC), and many remains have been discovered. The ruins of Shitara Castle reflect the style of the Kamakura period (1185–1333), and is taken as evidence that samurai warriors lived in the region. During the Edo period (1603– 1867) there were 17 villages, and most were Shogunate territories. The region is known for the many villages mingled in the same area (irimajiri-mura), and regarded as ethnologically unique (Toei Town Office 2018). After several stages of merging, 11 of these original 17 villages were merged to become the township of Toei-cho in 1955, and the remaining six villages added the following year, 1956. In the Meiji era the Bessho-Kaido highway (the present-day National Route 15) which runs vertically through Higashi-Mikawa between Toyohashi and Toei was renovated extensively. The newly renovated Bessho-Kaido brought massive industrial power to Toei. It became a major horse-breeding area to meet the high demand for military horses under a national policy to increase prosperity and military power. At around the same time, the sericulture (silkworm) industry became prosperous, and together with forestry, the core industry since the latter part of the Edo period they became the three core industries in the Oku-Mikawa Region in modern history. With changes in the military, the horse-breeding industry faded away during the last part of the Taisho era (1912–1926), but the other two industries, sericulture and forestry, continued to prosper, and brought sizable revenues to the area until around the 1950s. Mikawa-sugi, Japanese cedar trees„ were noted as a high quality cedar tree, and contributed significantly to the prosperity of Toei-cho for more than a century after the Meiji era. Unfortunately, however, changes in lumber market conditions resulted in a decline in cedar’s value. Thus, the forestry in Toei-cho today is no longer as prosperous as before, although it is still the core industry in the area (Toei Town Office 2018b). Today, the population of the town hits nearly the marginal settlement level (2015: 48.8% are older adults 65+) and is projected to rise to 55.8% by 2045, with more than one-third of them will be the old-olds of 75 and over (see Table 4.4).

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Population Changes in Toei-cho

Changes in the population in Toei-cho are frightening. When 17 villages were merged into Toei-cho in 1956 its population was 11,651, but declined by as much as 30% (3,446 in 2015). It has been declining continuously ever since the 1960s (1965, 9,519 with 2,094 households; 2015, 3,446 with 1,436 households; and a projection to 1,579 by the year 2045 (National Census, and IPPSR 2018a). The natural population increase rate of Toei-cho ranks nearly at the bottom (1724th), and the rate for the old-old population is extremely high. In other words, fertility decline and population aging in Toei-cho have been so rapid that there is serious concern about the extinction of the municipality as a whole. In analyzing the radar chart for Toei-cho we notice a somewhat peculiar fact. The overall ranking for Toei-cho is 355th, and belongs among the top one-fifth of the total 1,742 municipalities measured. Medical facilities rank 34th, and child welfare, 52nd, but the natural population increase rate is nearly at the bottom as we have discussed already. Then, we are prompted to question the factors that would be adding to these bipolar phenomena. A survey of town residents conducted by the Toei-cho Town Office (2016) reveals some of the crucial aspects that need to be remedied in the town. Younger adults seek improved housing and living conditions with more opportunities for better jobs and public policies for better family planning services, including childbearing and child-rearing. Without these policies, young families will not likely be attracted to reside in Toei-cho. For the older adult population, on the other hand, policies need to be implemented so they can lead healthy, active, and autonomous lives. At the same time, the municipal power of Toei-cho must be analyzed so that it can be utilized for planning to enhance the people to settle in. Then, what would be the municipal power of Toei-cho?

4.2.6.3

Municipal Power of Toei-cho: The Hanamatsuri and NPO Tehohe of Shidara

When we think of the municipal power of Toei-cho, no one will say but the Hanamatsuri. We must be cautious that the literal translation of Hanamatsuri in English is “flower festival,” but it has nothing to do with flowers. The Hanamatsuri was designated as a National Important Intangible Folk Cultural Asset in 1976. It is held in eleven areas of Toei-cho from November to the first of March every year. The festival was introduced during the Kamakura (1185–1333) and the Muromachi (1336–1573) periods by Hijiri (the wise) of Kumano and Kagahakusan, and has been practiced around the Tenryu River for more than 700 years. This festival is one of the shimotsuki-kagura, held to celebrate the revival of the power of the sun before and after the Toji (winter solstice). When the Hanamatsuri was started 700 years ago, the yudate15 and the kiyome (to purify) were the main parts of the festival. The people took over the Ise-kagura (sacred Shinto music and dance) and Suwa-kagura, and changed the festival over the

4.2 Aichi Prefecture, Nagakute-Shi of Owari Province …

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years. It has been held in the same style for about the past 400 years. The people wish to avoid all bad luck, demons, and illnesses. The people also wish for a good harvest, and for safety by welcoming god to the festival. In the older times, it was held for seven days and seven nights, and the people danced over 130 types of different dances. As it was a very large-scale festival requring money and manpower, the people stockpiled money, rice, and musicians for the festival. Due to the cost and energy required to hold the festival, in some areas it is held only once every seven or even twenty years. It is not known why the Kagura became the Hanamatsuri (Nagoya International Center: NIC 2014, Toei Board of Education 2018). It would be truly deplorable if this National Important Intangible Folk Cultural Asset of the Hanamatsuri is not preserved or limited to only the people in the region. In the small town of mountainous Toei-cho where population decline and aging are dramatically in progress, a group of young people called Shidara16 moved in, in 1990. Shidara is a professional taiko team preserving the waning folk traditions of Japan through song, music, and dance. During the Heian period (794–1185) farmers believed in Shidara-gami (God). At the end of July 945 hundreds of farmers carrying Mikoshi (a miniature shrine) on their shoulders started to March from the Settsu Province of the Goki along the Tokaido, and arrived at Iwashimizu Hachimangu Shrine of Kyoto at the beginning of August. Thus, the practice of worshiping the Shidaragami propagated widely among farmers throughout Japan (Amagasaki Municipal Archive 2006–2018). Since its inception in 1989, Shidara has toured throughout Japan, and in 1990 moved its headquarters to Toei-cho. In an effort to revitalize the Oku-Mikawa Region, the non-profit organization (NPO) Tehohe was established in 2010 by the leadership of Shidara, with the support of local residents and external supporters. The name of the organization, Tehohe is taken from the Hanamaturi dancers, who shout “Tehohe, Tehohe,” a unique sound of Tehohe which signifies the Oku-Mikawa Region. Shidara has not only performing locally but also has been giving performances in various regions of the United States, Europe, Korea, the Philippines, and Taipei. The NPO Tehohe has been actively involved in promoting the traditional art, and the creation of a new regional identity in cooperation with the local people. It is hoped that the Hanamatsuri together with the NPO Tehohe of Shidara group, will become a driving force to bring the people together.

4.2.6.4

Unresolved Isues of Toei-cho

It has been less than three decades since Shidara moved to Toei-cho. Regrettably, however, the population of Toei-cho has been continuously declining over these years. As we have discussed already, employment opportunities for younger adults are strongly needed for the revitalization of the town. Toei-cho should realize that it has a fortune in the Hanamatsuri, as a valuable tourism resource. Many industrial developments in Aichi Prefecture are more or less related to the auto industry and Toyota Motor Corporation. Apart from the auto related industry, however, Toei-cho

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possesses in itself a tremendously unique and strong municipal power in itself. This valuable municipal power should be developed to revitalize the town, perhaps by making use of advanced ICT policies, to attract younger adults to the area.

4.3 Impacts of the Goki-Shichido on Variations in Municipal Power Among Municipalities in the Same Prefecture: Tokyo and Aichi Prefectures located in eastern Japan with high population increases, (or low population decrease rates) in 2040 projections all fall along Tokaido of the Goki-Shichido. This chapter studied Tokyo and Aichi Prefectures in detail. The regional variations within each of these prefectures are quite outstanding. We examined their variations in municipal power by provincial differences within each prefecture. For the Tokyo Metropolis, we recognized that Chuo-ku of Musashi Province, Mikurajima-mura of Izu Province, and Hinohara-mura of the Okutama Region are distinctively different from one another in their municipal power and population-sustaining power. As for Aichi, these indicators of both Nagakute-shi of the Owari Region and Toei-cho of the Mikawa Region were investigated. These municipalities we studied are diverse, including a large city, a small city, a village on a remote island, and marginal settlements. Each of these municipalities developed its own revitalization policies to alleviate falling population, aging and fertility decline in their efforts to generate intergenerational dialogues. We found that each of their municipal power differs significantly from one municipality to the other even within the same prefecture, stemming from the han dynasty in the Tokugawa shogunate. Thus, it would be correct to say that differences in municipal power are likely due to the historical provincial variations in the Goki-Shichido of each municipality. These findings tell us that the impact of provincial differences of the Goki-Shichido on the regional revitalization of Japanese population today is too significant to ignore. Moreover, the current chapter revealed that it is of the utmost importance to pay close attention to municipal power, and the population-sustaining power of each community, not the prefecture as a whole, or Japan as a whole by any means. Notes 1.

The Taiho Code (Taiho Ritsuryou) of 701 classified Shichido into three groups depending on the importance of each province, i.e., the Tairo, Churo, and Shoro. The Tairo includes the Sanyodo only because it is regarded as the most important of the Shichido which connects the Goki (or the Kinai) of the then capital region of Japan and the Dazaifu which controlled the Saikaido region. The Churo includes the Tokaido and the Tosando as important regions next to the Sanyodo. The third rank is the Shoro, including the Hokurikudo, Sannindo, Nankaido, and Saikaido (Asai 2007a: 28–29).

4.3 Impacts of the Goki-Shichido on Variations in Municipal …

2.

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In the Tama county established under the political system based on the Ritsuryo codes various central structures of the Musashi Province were built such as Kokufu (provincial capital), Kokubun-ji (temple), and shirines (Asai 2007b). 3. These gokaido are as follows: the Tokaido (493 km to Kyoto), the Nakasendo (533 km to Kyoto), the Koshukaido (209 km to Shimosuwa), the Nikkokaido (144 km to Hachiishi, Tochigi), and the Oushukaido (189 km to Shirakawa, Fukushima). 4. The sixth sector industry (rokuji sangyou in Japanese) is the development of products and markets utilizing domestically produced agriculture, forestry, and fishery products in order to promote initiatives, including those undertaken by agricultural-commercial-industrial collaborations, to promote primary producers’ diversification into processing and distribution (Nogyo Kumiai Shinbun 2006). 5. There is a famous tanka (Japanese poem of 17 syllables) signifying these three warrior lords: Oda Nobunaga said “If the little cuckoo does not sing, I will kill it.” Toyotomi Hideyoshi said “If the little cuckoo does not sing, I will force it to sing.” Tokugawa Ieyasu said “If the little cuckoo does not sing, I will wait until it starts to sing.” This reflects the brutal personality of Nobunaga who would kill anyone instantly if he did not behave as Nobunaga expected. For the case of Hideyoshi, it reflects his personality of high level of conception by extraordinary imagination even if others consider it impossible to achieve. As for Ieyasu, it explains his perseverance, to wait patiently for a good opportunity. 6. For both Great Merger of Meiji and Showa refer to end notes 10 and 11 in Chap. 1 of this book. 7. For the detailed explanation of the Great Merger of Heisei refer to the Sect. 1.3.3 “Japanese Municipalities and Local Government” in Chap. 1 of this book. 8. They are Mirror, Sword, and Jewels. The Sword is located in the Atsuta Shrine. 9. The “Linimo,” which runs on the Tobu Kyuryo Line through downtown Nagakute, was Japan’s first operational magnetic levitation train line. This maglev train is used for many special occasions, and includes the Chartered Waku-Waku Linimo, an entire train that can be reserved, the Chartered Event Linimo, a train that can be used for weddings and other events, and the Linimo Xmas Train, a special train that is beautifully decorated at Christmas time (“Linimo” in Nagakute City Tourism Exchange Association 2018). 10. The report is published by Toyokeizai Shinpo-sha every year. The ranking of each city is comprised of 16 indices in five categories, similar to EvaCva Radar Chart. The five categories are Security (hospitals, nursing homes, TFR, and the child population), Convenience (retail industry annual sales, large retail store area, and the number of food and beverage retail establishments), Comfort (sewage facilities penetration rate, park area, social population increase rate, and the number of new housing construction), Wealth (the municipal financial power index, local tax revenue, and the taxable income, per taxpayer), and Housing Quality (the total floor area of the house, and the house ownership rate). For each of these 16 indices, the average score is 50, and its standard deviation was calculated and averaged for each category (Toyokeizai Shinpo-sha 2018).

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11. As of October 28, 2018 the breakdown of municipalities is as follows: Cabinet designated cities, 20; cities, 772; special wards, 23; wards, 175; branch offices/promotion bureaus, 18; counties, 307; towns, 743; villages, 189; totaling 1,724 municipalities (20 Cabine designated cities +772 cities +743 towns + 189 villages as of November 11, 2018) (e-Stt 2018). 12. These institutions are Aichi Prefectural University, Aichi Prefectural Institute of Arts, Aichi Medical University (private), and Aichi Shukutoku University (private). 13. The book is entitled Why Survive? Being Old in America, published by Harper & Row in 1975. It presents a whole range of problems associated with older people in American society stemming from poverty, the failures of the Social Security system, and social isolation. Butler argues for comprehensive reform by development of a strategy for dealing with an aging population, with suggestions for “productive aging.” Arguments presented by Butler more than four decades ago are not obsolete today, and should be emulated by people who face aging problems today throughout the world. 14. Some of their examples: Museums: Aichi Prefectural Ceramic Museum, Nagakute Historical Museum, Meito Art Museum, Toyota Automobile Museums; Festivals: Nagakute Art Festival, Onpak Music Festival (summer), Nagakute Winter Festival; Nagakute Cultural Center; Expo 2005 Aichi Commemorative Park (Moricoro Park); Galleria Concert; Kosenjyo Park (“Museum and History” in Nagakute City Tourism Exchange Association 2018). 15. “Yudate” is a Shinto ritual in which a shaman or priest soaks bamboo grass in boiling water, and sprinkles the water on worshippers, originally a form of divination, later a purification ceremony, now primarily used to pray for good health (Weblio Dictionary). 16. The etymology of Shidara is related to the Japanese drum. A drummer who plays it well was called ‘shidara,’ and one who could not was ‘fushidara.’ Shidara in Japanese is composed of three Japanese characters. “Shi” is from the phrase “Kokorozashi”, meaning ‘a strong will to persevere at all costs’, “Da” means ‘big’ or ‘many’, and “Ra” means ‘people.’ Three of these Japanese characters are combined, hence Shidara is a group of people with a great strong will to succeed and persevere.

References Aichi Prefecture Office. (2015). Aichi no Oitachi [How Aichi Prefecture came about]. Renewed on 31 Mar. https://www.pref.aichi.jp/soshiki/koho/0000007714.html. Accessed 22 Oct 2018. Amagasaki Municipal Archive. (2008). Apedia [Encyclopedia of Amagasaki regional history]. http://www.archives.city.amagasaki.hyogo.jp/apedia/. Accessed 31 Oct 2018. Asai, K. (2007a). Otona no tame no Nihon Chiri [Japanese Geography for Adults]. Tokyo: Nihon Jitsugyo Shuppan-sha.

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Asai, K. (2007b). Shiranakatta! Odoroita! Nippon Zenkoku “Kenkyo” no Nazo [New Facts! Surprise! The Mystery of Borders of Prefectures throughout Japan]. Tokyo: Nihon Jitsugyo Shuppan-sha. Butler, N. R. (1975). Why survive?: Being old in America. Harper & Row. Chuo City Office. (2016). Chuo-ku jinko bijyon: Jinko doutai bunseki oyobi shourai jinko suikei [The population vision of Chuo-ku: Changes and the future projections of the population] and https://www.city.chuo.lg.jp/kusei/kobetsukeikaku/kobetsukeikaku/zinkouvision.files/zinkou vision.pdf. Accessed 15 Oct 2018. Chuo City Office. (2018a). Chuo-ku no jinko to setai (Population and households of Chuo ward as of 1 Oct 2018). Chuo City Office. http://www.city.chuo.lg.jp/kusei/statisticaldata/zinko/tyuuou kunozinkousetaisuu.html. Accessed 14 Oct 2018. Chuo City Office. (2018b). Chomei no yurai [Origins of areas and districts in Chuo-ku]. http:// www.city.chuo.lg.jp/kusei/syokai/tyomeiyurai/index.html. Accessed 14 Oct 2018. Chuo City Library, ed. (1994, 1995, 1996). Chuo-ku Enkaku Zushu: Tsukishima-hen, Nihonbashihe, and Kyobashi-hen [History charts and drawings for Tsukishima, Nihonbashi, and Kyobashi Areas in Chuo ward]. Tokyo: Chuo City Library of Tokyo. e-Stat, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018). Shi-ku-chou-son suu wo shiraberu [Japanese municipalities update]. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/municipalities/number-ofmunicipalities. Accessed 11 Nov 2018. Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSSR]. (2018a). Jinkou Toukei Shiryoushuu: 2018 [Latest demographic statistics of 2018]. http://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/tohkei/Popular/ Popular2018.asp?chap=0. Accessed 22 Mar 2017. Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSSR]. (2018b) Nihon no Chiikibetsu Shourai Suikei Jinko: Heisei 27-Heisei 57 [Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2015–2045]. http:// www.ipss.go.jp/pp-shicyoson/j/shicyoson18/t-page.asp. Accessed 31 Mar 2018. Kodansha, Ltd. (1983). Kodansha encyclopedia of Japan. Tokyo: Kodansha. Kokudo Chiri-inn (Geospatial Information Authority of Japan). (2018). To-do-fu-ken no ichi jyohou [Geospatial information of prefectures in Japan]. http://www.gsi.go.jp/KOKUJYOHO/CENTER/ zenken.htm. Accessed 10 Oct 2018. Mikurajima Tourism Association. (2015). Mikurajima-mura no jinko zouka riyu [Reasons for population incrase of Mikurjima-mura]. Personal correspondence of Oct 22. Mikurajima-mura Office. (2016). Mikurajima-mura jinko bijyon—machi, hito, shigoto sousei chouki jinko bijyon keikaku [The population vision of Mikurajima-murau: Changes and the future projections of the population] General affairs division planning finance section. http://www.mikurasima. jp/data/gyosei/jinkou.pdf. Accessed 17 Oct 2018. Mikurajima-mura Office (2019). Koho Mikura [Public Relations] No. 351, Oct 9. http://www.mik urasima.jp/data/koho/351.pdf. Accessed 18 Oct 2019. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2014) Heisei 26-nen jyumin kihondaichou ni motozuku jinkou, jinkoudoutai, oyobi setaisuu [Demographic and household statistics for the basic resident register as of 1 Jan 2014]. http://www.soumu.go.jp/menu_news/s-news/01gyos ei02_02000062.html. Accessed 25 Sept 2016. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2016). Heisei 28-nen jyu gatsu touka genzai Shi-cho-son suu no suii hyou [Changes in the number of municipalities in detail as of 10 Oct 2016]. http://www.soumu.go.jp/main_content/000283329.pdf. Accessed 25 Jan 2018. Nagakute city. (2018a). Nagakute-shi no toshikeikaku no hensen [Changes in the city planning of Nagakute-shi]. As of April 1. https://www.city.nagakute.lg.jp/keikaku/toshiseibi/toshikekaku/ documents/toshikeikaku_hennsennh30.pdf. Accessed 27 Oct 2018. Nagakute City. (2018b). Nagakute city home-page. https://www.city.nagakute.lg.jp/index.html. Accessed 25 Oct 2018. Nagakute City Tourism Exchange Association. (2018). Nagakute-shi no rekishi [The history of Nagakute]. http://kutte-nagakute.jp/. Accessed 25 Oct 2018.

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Nagoya International Center (NIC). (2014). Oku-Mikawa no Hanamatsuri [The Hanamatsuri of Oku-Mikawa]. http://www.nic-nagoya.or.jp/en/nagoya_calendar/NIC_E_07_1611.pdf. Accessed 30 Oct 2018. Nogyo Kumiai Shinbun (Agriculture Council Newspaper). (2006). Imamura Naomi no chiiki nougyou kasseika jyuku [Naratomi Imamura’s school for the revitalization of the community agriculture] 26 Oct. http://www.jacom.or.jp/archive02/document/column/kora114/kora114s0610 2503.html Accessed 4 May 2017. Shimizu, H. (1986). Jinko to Kazoku no Shakaigaku [Sociology of Population and Families]. Tokyo: Sai-shobo. Shimizu, H. (1992). Koreika Shakai to Kazokukouzou no Chiikisei [Regional Variation in Aging Society and Family Structures]. Tokyo: Jicho-sha. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018a). Toukei de miru To-do-fu-ken no sugta [Statistical Observations of Prefectures: 2018]. Released on 16 Feb 2018. http://www.stat.go.jp/data/k-sugata/index.html. Accessed 8 Aug 2018. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018b). Toukei de miru shi-ku-cho-son no sugta [Statistical Observations of Municipalities: 2018]. Released on 22 June 2018. http://www.stat.go.jp/data/s-sugata/index.html. Accessed 8 Aug 2018. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018c). Nihon no shi-ku-cho-son suu wo shiraberu [Japanese municipalities today]. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/mun icipalities/number-of-municipalities. Accessed 28 Oct 2018. Takemitsu, M. (2009). Shitteokitai Nihon no Kennminsei [Japaneese personalities by prefecture]. Tokyo: Kodansha. Toei Board of Education. (2018). Hanamatsuri no sekai: Keisho sareru Toei-cho no minzoku geino [The world of the Hanamatsuri: The traditional festival of Toei-cho]. http://www.town.toei.aichi. jp/hana/area/pdf/english.pdf. Accessed 30 Oct 2018. Toei Town Office. (2016). Toei-cho jinko bijyon [The Population Vision of Toei-cho]. http://www. town.toei.aichi.jp/secure/1115/27keikaku_bijon.pdf. Accessed 30 Oct 2018. Toei Town Office. (2018). Toei-cho no gaiyo [Outlook of Toei town]. http://www.town.toei.aichi. jp/1095.htm. Accessed 29 Oct 2018. Toyokeizai Shinpo-sha. (2018). Sumiyosa lankingu; 2018 [Rankings for livability: 2018]. https:// toyokeizai.net/articles/-/225720?page=2. Accessed 28 Oct 2018. Yawata, K. (2009). Yonjyu-shichi To-Do-Fu-Ken Unchiku Jiten [Thorough studies of 47 prefectures of Japan].

Chapter 5

Okinawa of Ryukyu, Fukuoka of the Saikaido, and Osaka of Kinai: The Goki-Shichido and Their Municipal Power

Abstract In western Japan, the study identified prefectures which show high population increase (or low population decrease) rates in 2040 projections. We chose Okinawa, Fukuoka, and Osaka Prefectures for our detailed analyses of municipal power. Concerning the relationship between regional variations in municipal power and the Goki-Shichido we paid close attention to the historical development of the Ryukyu Kingdom of Okinawa. Then, in an attempt to examine factors contributing to the high population increase rate in Okinawa, Nakagusuku-son is investigated in detail. It was found that four factors contribute to its high population increase. First, the people in Nakagusuku-son exhibit a high commitment to the village. Second, negative municipal power such as urban infrastructure, medical and child welfare, child rearing and education programs need to be overcome. Third, use Ryukyu University in village collaboration programs to stimulate the residents. Finally, make the best use of the invaluable asset of the Nakagusuku Castle Ruins, a World Heritage Site, to attract not only tourists, but permanent residents. Loss of Shuri Castle is exactly the loss of municipal power of Okinawans. We believe, however, that it will be restored in the near future. In analyzing the population decline in Fukuoka Prefecture, its 60 municipalities are divided into four districts, namely Kita-Kyushu (formerly Buzen Province), Fukuoka (formerly Chikuzen Province), Chikugo, and Chikuho (named after taking Chiku of Chikuzen Province and Ho of Buzen Province) districts. Each of these four districts in Fukuoka Prefecture has its own history and regional characteristics stemming from its own provincial background. Consequently, countermeasures for the population decline of each district differ for each. We should note, however, in Fukuoka Prefecture as a whole the emphasis placed on international exchange among Asian nations, and other regions in the world is outstanding. Furthermore, Kasuya-machi of the Fukuoka District has been well recognized throughout Japan as a population-increasing municipality. When people recognize the municipal power of Kasuya-machi, such as the rich natural environment and numerous designated cultural treasures, and transmit this information actively to the outside world, the population increase of the town could be further accelerated. As for Osaka Prefecture we investigated the municipal power of eight different districts from Izumi, Kawachi, and Settsu Provinces of Kinai of the Goki-Shichido. However, none of the districts in Osaka Prefecture has been affected in their demographic characteristics in any significant manner by their original provincial differences. It is, perhaps, due © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 F. Kumagai, Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4234-3_5

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to the fact that the historical ruling of Toyotomi Hideyoshi superseded everything else. Of 43 municipalities in Osaka Prefecture, the municipal power of Tajiri-cho, which shows a remarkable social population increase in recent years, was analyzed. It is urgently requested that Tajiri-cho initiate measures for its natural population increase so that the town can slow down its population decline. Earlier in our study we identified prefectures in western Japan with high projected population increase (or low population decrease) rates (Chap. 3). These prefectures are Okinawa, Shiga, Fukuoka, and Osaka. In this chapter we will pick Okinawa, Fukuoka, and Osaka Prefectures for our detailed analyses of municipal power. Concerning the relationship between municipal power and population decline, we will pay close attention to the historical development of Ryukyu for Okinawa. Then, in an attempt to examine factors contributing to a high population increase rate in Okinawa, Nakagusuku-son will be investigated in detail. In Fukuoka Prefecture, we will compare and contrast the municipal power of Chikuzen, Chikugo, and Bizen provinces of the Saikaido. For a detailed study of a municipality which shows a high population increase rate in Fukuoka Prefecture, we will examine the municipal power of Kasuya-machi. As for Osaka Prefecture, we will inspect any significant differences in municipal power in Settsu, Kawachi, and Izumi Provinces of Kinai. Afterwards, the municipal power of Tajiri-cho in Osaka will be investigated. These analyses for population-declining Japan by province and municipality will prove the significance of the Goki-Shichido framework for regional variations in Japanese population.

5.1 Okinawa Prefecture and Nakagusuku-son 5.1.1 A Brief History of Ryukyu and Okinawa Prefecture Okinawa Prefecture is located between the southwestern part of Kyushu and Taiwan, and is comprised of 160 islands, of which 49 islands are occupied, such as the main island of Okinawa, Miyako, Ishigaki, and Iriomote with Taketomi-cho. The total area of Okinawa Prefecture is approximately 2,281km2 , and it is the fourth smallest prefecture in Japan after Kagawa, Osaka, and Tokyo. These islands of Okinawa extend approximately 1,000 km east to west, and 400 km north to south, covering nearly half the length of Honshu, Shikoku, and Kyushu islands. The climate of Okinawa is subtropical, with an average yearly temperature of 23.1°C, seldom getting below 10 degrees even in mid-winter. There are more than 100 days in a year when the temperature gets above 30°C, with abundant rainfall and frequent typhoons (Okinawa Prefectural Government 2015). The sociocultural characteristics of Okinawa Prefecture today differ significantly from those of any other part of Japan. Okinawa had been the Ryukyu Kingdom, not a

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part of Japan. It was only in 1879 (Meiji 12) when the Ryukyu Kingdom of 450 years (1429–1879) became Okinawa Prefecture of Japan (Takemitsu 2001; Yawata 2009). By the 12th century, numerous small local rulers had emerged, and they were consolidated by conquest into a unified kingdom by Shohashi in 1492. The ruler of the Ryukyu kingdom paid tribute to the Chinese emperor, and developed major trading with southeastern Asian nations, including such goods as red color dye, perfume, and ivory, which led to massive trade with Japan, Korea, and China. This was known as the Great Trade Era in the Ryukyu Kingdom, for 150 years, from the end of the 14th century to the mid-16th century (Okinawa Prefectural Government 2015; Takemitsu 2001; Yawata 2009). In 1609 the Ryukyu Kingdom was invaded and conquered by the Shimazu family of the Satsuma Domain (Kagoshima Prefecture today), at around the time when the Tokugawa shogunate began in Edo. During this period, Ryukyu developed its own sophisticated culture, under the influence of Japan (Okinawa Prefectural Government. 2015). With the coming of the Meiji era the Japanese government claimed formal sovereignty over the kingdom of Ryukyu, which lasted for 450 years, and incorporated it as Okinawa Prefecture in 1879.1 When the abolition of feudal domain and establishment of prefectures (Haihan Chiken) was enforced in 1871, the Satsuma domain became Kagoshima Prefecture. At that time, the kingdom of Ryukyu had gotten out of the control of Kagoshima Prefecture and the Ryukyu Domain was established in 1872 under the supervision of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Meiji Government. Five years later, then, Okinawa Prefecture was established in 1879. This entire process of the forced assimilation of the Ryukyu Kingdom into Japan is called the Ryukyu Shobun (Disposition of Ryukyu), ending its tributary relations with China and abolishing the Ryukyu Kingdom (1872–1879) (Akira 2007). Toward the end of World War II, in March 1945, American troops invaded the islands; the Battle of Okinawa was one of the bloodiest conflicts in the Pacific War, with more than 100,000 people in Okinawa killed. Then, the Okinawa islands were administered by the American military for 27 years until returned to Japan (1945– 1972). During this period, US military bases were constructed one after the other. U.S. bases in Okinawa comprise approximately 70% of all the US military bases in Japan (Okinawa Prefectural Government 2015). Due to the difficult situation in which Okinawa is placed today, agricultural activity is limited to sugarcane and pineapple, and economic development has been severely hampered. As a consequence, the service industry which caters to the military bases is a major source of revenue. The tourism industry is also prosperous, as a warm climate, subtropical vegetation, corals, beaches, unique arts and handicrafts attract visitors. Thus, the history and culture of the ancient kingdom of Ryukyu have been inherited by Okinawans today (Okinawa Prefectural Government 2015). It is heartbreaking to know that nine of 14 buildings of Shuri Castle2 in Naha were burnt down and destroyed on the 31st of October 2019. The Castle sites were designated World Heritage by UNESCO in 2000. Shuri Castle has been a symbol of the Ryukyu Kingdom and adorns the heart of its history and culture. In other words, Shuri Castle is Okinawa’s identity, and the heart of Okinawa’s spiritual culture. Thus,

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the sense of loss of the people of Okinawa cannot be expressed in words. The Castle sites are truly the municipal power of Okinawa, also known to many tourists as symbol of the historical/cultural journey of Ryukyu into Okinawa, and foundation of Okinawan identity. Immediately after extinction of the disastrous fire Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki stated intent to restore Shuri Castle as soon as possible. Not only Okinawans, but also all the Japanese people strongly want it comes true in the near future with the cooperation of the government, concerned organizations in Japan and abroad, the people of Okinawa, the people of Japan, and Uchinanchu (Okinawans) around the world (Nikkei Asian Review 2019; OPN-LA 2005; Ryukyu Ryukyu Shimpo 2019).

5.1.2 Household Type, Marriage Power and Population-Sustaining Power of Okinawa Prefecture: Ryukyu Province Because of the historical development of Okinawa Prefecture, it is not possible to analyze it by provincial differences. The reason for discussing Okinawa here are two. First, the population increase rate of Okinawa in the 2015 national census from that of the previous counterpart was 2.9%, the highest of all the 47 prefectures. Second, the IPSSR report of the projected population increase rate from 2010 to 2040 (−1.7%) was the highest of the 47 prefectures (IPSSR 2013, and discussed in detail in Table 3.2 of Chap. 3 in this book). Its most recent report, for the 2045 projection based on the 2015 national census lists Okinawa as the second highest (−0.4%) next to Tokyo (0.7%) (IPSSR 2018b), For a more detailed discussion on this topic, refer to Table 3.3 in Chap. 3 of this book. For these reasons Okinawa was chosen for analyses of municipal power in one of the prefectures in the western part of Japan. The municipal power of household type, marriage power, population-sustaining power and population increase rates from 2015 to 2045 of Okinawa Prefecture were compared and contrasted (see Fig. 5.1 and Table 5.1). Concerning the generational family household in 2015, the average rate for Okinawa Prefecture is slightly lower than that of the Japan average. The highest is Naha-shi (20.26) and the lowest is Yonaguni-machi (7.78%). It is interesting to note that cities in Okinawa show high on this score, but towns and villages tend to be low. Nevertheless, the rate for the generational family household in Okinawa is not as high as other regions in Japan that reflect traditional Japanese households. Throughout the history of the family in Okinawa, there existed no ie system such as in the traditional Japanese family. The family in Okinawa is called yaaninjyu and its continuity is based on a patriarchal relationship (Tamaki 1997; Tanaka 1986). The idea and the scope of yaaninjyu is based only on individual’s own perspective, rather than any defined concept. Therefore, the subjective orientation of yaaninjyu determines the boundary of the structure as well as the function of the family in Okinawa.

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Fig. 5.1 Map of Okinawa Prefecture by municipality (11 cities, 11 towns, and 19 villages = Total of 41 municipalities). Sources Map-okinawa-pref https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mapokinawa-pref.png, and Map of Okinawa Prefecture, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Map ofOkinawaPrefectureJa.svg, from Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. Accessed 10 Mar 2020

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Table 5.1 Municipal power of Okinawa: Nakagusuku-son, Tomigusuku-shi, and Zamami-son Municipality

Generational Marriage family household power 2013 2015 (%)a (‰)b

Population-sustaining power 2013 (%)b

Projected population increase rates 2015–2045 (%)c

Japan average

13.29

5.30

−0.19

−6.3

Okinawa average

11.32

6.02

−0.07

−0.5

Nakagusuku-son

11.16

7.24

2.53

29.4

Tomigusuku-shi

14.60

5.86

1.30

14.0

Zamami-son

10.53

11.17

−2.19

−34.5

Sources a Statistics Bureau, MIAC (2018a, b, c) b MIAC 2014 c IPSSR (2018b). The table is compiled and constructed by the author

People who are categorized as family members are those within the boundary of the yaaninjyu who solidify a binding family tie with one another. Such a strong bond, in turn, reflects on the interpersonal relationships of the people within the yaaninjyu (Kumagai 2008, 2015). Thus, yaaninjyu could likely to be one of the contributing municipal power for the population sustainability among the Okinawans. Another municipal power contributing to the population sustenance in Okinawa would be the religious orientation of the people, the great majority believe in and practice ancestor worship. This is signified by the ihai (the symbol of the family ancestor) sacredly placed within the butsudan (a miniature Buddhist temple in the home). This ihai is passed on from one generation to the next within the family. However, only the eldest son in the family may be the successor; no female offspring can assume this role. Therefore, a new wife is only acknowledged as a family member after giving birth to her first son. It would appear that this practice facilitates the high birth rate among women in Okinawa. Women are eager to have sons (Kumagai 2008, 2015). The impact of marriage power (X) on the population-sustaining power (Y) for 41 municipalities in Okinawa Prefecture is not significant (Y = −1.469 + 0.230X, adjusted R2 = 0.126, P = 0.014). The marriage power of Nakagusuku-son, however, is outstandingly strong, as is the population-sustaining power, and the projected population increase rate in 2045 is nearly 30% higher than 2015. On the contrary, the marriage power of Zamami-son is quite high, but its population-sustaining power is very low. The marriage power of Zamami-son must be looked at with caution. It is because the population of Zamami-son is very small (870 in 2015, and projected to decline to 620 by 2040, and 570 by 2045), and the same with yearly marriages (usually 5–8 a year), hence its marriage power fluctuates significantly year by year (Zamami-son Municipal Office 2015). The declining population trend in Zamamison is a threatening situation that reflects on its projected population increase rate in

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2045 (−34.5%). It is expected that Zamami-son in 2045 will near marginal settlement status, with the older adult population one-half of the total population (see Table 5.2). These results of municipal power for Okinawa Prefecture suggest that we should analyze closely factors which contribute to the projected population increase in 2045 of Nakagusuku-son, and Tomigusuku-shi where the projected population increase rates for 2045 are positively high. We will analyze the municipal power of Nakagusuku-sun in detail later. Table 5.2 Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Okinawa Prefecture, Nakagusuku-son, Tomigusuku-shi, and Zamami-son Japan

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

23.9

23.5

18.2

14.6

13.2

12.5

11.5

10.8

10.7

Working population 15–64

69.1

67.4

69.7

68.1

63.8

60.8

58.5

56.4

52.5

Older adults 65+ population

7.0

9.1

12.1

17.4

23.0

26.6

30.0

32.8

36.8

Old-Olds 75+ population

2.1

3.1

4.8

7.1

11.1

12.8

17.8

19.6

21.4

Okinawa Prefecture

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

29.4

24.7

20.2

17.8

17.3

16.5

15.6

Working population 15–64

62.8

65.3

65.9

4.8

63.9

58.8

56.7

53.3

Older adults 65+ population

78.0

10.0

13.9

17.4

19.7

24.6

27.8

31.4

3.2

4.4

5.9

8.7

10.1

12.5

16.1

17.8

Old-Olds 75+ population Nakagusuku-son

15.3

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

26.4

20.1

18.5

16.5

17.4

17.6

16.6

16.1

Working population 15–64

64.2

66.9

66.4

66.9

64.9

60.3

58.6

54.6

Older adults 65+ population

9.4

13.0

15.1

16.6

17.8

22.1

24.8

29.2

4.1

5.8

7.3

9.0

9.7

11.1

14.7

16.6

Old-Olds 75+ population Tomigusuku-shi

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

35.3

28.7

21.8

20.0

20.0

19.1

17.9

17.4

Working population 15–64

59.9

64.6

67.8

65.6

63.1

59.2

57.3

53.6

Older adults 65+ population

4.8

6.7

10.5

14.1

16.9

21.6

24.8

29.0

Old-Olds 75+ population

1.9

3.1

4.7

6.6

8.0

11.2

14.4

16.2

Zamami-son

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

19.7

17.1

21.1

17.5

17.9

15.0

11.2

9.8

Working population 15–64

55.5

56.2

56.3

59.3

62.3

59.5

54.0

44.4

Older adults 65+ population

24.8

26.7

22.6

23.2

19.8

25.5

34.7

42.8

Old-Olds 75+ population

11.3

13.1

11.5

15.3

11.4

11.3

16.2

22.5

Sources For 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2015 National Census; for 2025, 2035, and 2045 IPSSR 2018b. The table is compiled and constructed by the author

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5.1.3 Population Changes by Age Group: Okinawa, Nakagusuku-son,Tomigusuku-shi, and Zamami-son Projections for population increase rates by municipality in 2040 in Okinawa Prefecture are presented by way of the GPS G-Census geographic tool (see Fig. 5.2). The figure shows high projected population increase rate areas in 2040, concentrated in surrounding Naha-shi, the capital city of Okinawa Prefecture. It is true that both industries and residences in Okinawa Prefecture are heavily concentrated in Naha. Nevertheless, two factors have prevented Naha from constructing high rise buildings: narrow land areas and building height restrictions forced by aviation laws. Consequently, municipalities near Naha have become commuter towns. Projected population increase rates for 2040 of these municipalities are as follows: Naha (−8%), Tomigusuku-shi (23.7%), Urasoe-shi (5.2%), Itoman-shi (2.1%), Nanjoshi (−9.9%), Yonabaru-cho (2.3%), Haebaru-cho (12.7%), Yaese-cho (10.3%), Ginowan-shi (−0.3%), Nishihara-cho (3.5%), and Nakagusuku-son (6.7%) (for locations of these municipalities refer to Fig. 5.1). These 11 municipalities make up the Naha Metropolitan Area, and its population altogether amounts to nearly 84,000,058% of the total Okinawa population of 1.45 million population in 2018. The population density of some municipalities in the Naha Metropolitan Area is equivalent to those of the three major metropolitan areas in Japan, namely Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya (Okinawa Prefectural Government, Bureau of Statistics 2018).

Fig. 5.2 Projected population increase rates by municipality for Okinawa Prefecture: 2010–2040. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020

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In fact, based on yearly population increase rates, the top ten of the 41 municipalities in Okinawa in 2018 scatter around the Naha Metropolitan Area. These municipalities are Nakagusuku-son (2.34%), Yonabaru-cho (1.86%), Kitanakagusukuson (1.82%), Tomigusuku-shi (1.72%), Naebaru-cho (1.55%), Yaese-cho (1.49%), Nanjo-shi (0.98%), Ginoza-son (0.96%), Itoman-shi (0.84%), and Kin-cho (0.62%). Furthermore, of these ten municipalities, the top six rank among the top 50 municipalities of Japan’s total 1,747 municipalities (Statistics Bureau 2018a, b) in 2018. Their ranks are as follows: Nakagusuku, 10th; Yonabaru, 26th; Kitanakagusuku, 27th; Tomigusuku, 32nd; Naebaru, 40th; and Yaese, 43rd (Nikkei 2018). It is clear that an acute population concentration exists in Okinawa, especially in the Naha Metropolitan Area. On the other hand, the population increase rates for 2040 for the northern part of Okinawa Island, and remote island regions of Okinawa, are highly negative (see Fig. 5.2). In remote island regions, younger adults tend to move to large urban regions such as Naha, hence the progress of depopulation has accelerated significantly (Okinawa Prefectural Government 2015, 2018). This fact is taken as evidence of regional variations in population within the same prefecture. For the case of Okinawa, the provincial differences cannot be taken into consideration. Instead, socio-cultural impacts of the Ryukyu Kingdom are still operating underneath the minds of Okinawans today. Changes and projections for the population proportion by age group of Okinawa Prefecture are presented in Table 5.2. Population increase rates of Okinawa as a whole have been declining gradually (1.98% in 1975, 0.45% in 2010, and −0.31% projected in 2040. Furthermore, the population projection of Okinawa will hit its peak by 2025 (1.443 million), and will turn to a declining trend afterwards (IPSSR 2013; Okinawa Prefectural Government 205, 2016). The proportion of children in Okinawa is the highest of 47 prefectures in Japan (17.3% vs. the national average of 12.5% in 2015). On the other hand, the proportions of older adults has been relatively low in comparison to other prefectures. The proportion of old-olds (75 years and older) is projected to increase rapidly from sometime around the year 2015 (see Table 5.2). It means that Okinawa is moving to a fertility-declining and population-aging society now. In this section, therefore, we will analyze the municipal power of Nakagusuku-son in detail. Reasons for its selection are three-fold. First, due to the history of Okinawa being the Ryukyu Kingdom we cannot attest to the provincial impact on Okinawa. Second, Nakagusuku-son is the only village among communities belonging to the Naha Metropolitan Area. Third, we have identified earlier that the projected population increase rate of Okinawa Prefecture from 2015 to 2045 ranks second (−0.4%) next to the top of Tokyo (0.7%) of all the 47 prefectures (refer to Table 3.3 in Chap. 3, Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSSR 2018b)). Of all the 41 municipalities in Okinawa, the projected population increase rate of Nakagusuku-son will be the highest (29.4%). For these reasons, it would be of utmost significance to examine the municipal power of Nakagusuku-son as it may likely be a lesson for other population-declining communities.

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5.1.4 Radar Chart of Okinawa: Nakagusuku-son, Tomigusuku-shi, and Zamami-son Let us examine the EvaCva radar chart with 14 socio-economic indicators of Okinawa Prefecture for these three municipalities, Nakagusuku-son, Tomigusuku-shi, and Zamami-son (see Fig. 5.3). For an explanation of EvaCva, please refer to Chap. 2 on Methodology of this book. At a glance we notice that the overall outlook of Nakagusuku-son and Tomigusuku-shi is similar except for social or natural population growth, and Total Fertility Rate (TFR). Nakagusuku-son exceeds Tomigusuku-shi on the social population index (ranks 12th of the total 1,741 municipalities in 2015), but Tomigusuku-shi scores higher on natural population growth (ranks 3rd) and TFR (ranks 19th) indicators. Life expectancy indications for both Nakagusuku-son and Tomigusuku-shi is quite favorable indeed (90th and 56th respectively), but child welfare index is poor (1,617th and 1,264th, respectively. The low employment index for both Nakagusukuson (1,715th) and Tomigusuku-shi (1,618th) indicates that these two municipalities are commuter towns, and the majority of residents work in other municipalities. The overall rating for Nakagusuku-son is 240th, while that of Tomigusuku-shi is 140th. The radar chart for Zamami-son, however, presents quite a different picture from the two municipalities above. As we have discussed earlier in this chapter, the population of Zamami-son has been declining rapidly, and it will reach a marginal settlement level at some point. Of the 14 indicators on the radar chart, two show a positive

Fig. 5.3 Okinawa Prefecture radar chart: Nakagusuku-son, Tomigusuku-shi, and Zamami-son. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. https://eva cva.net/app/?lang=en&radar_dataset=default. Accessed 11 July 2018. Note Score for “0” indicates that no data is available for the index

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outlook, traffic safety (ranks 93rd), and TFR (ranks 105th) but this must be looked at with caution as the population in Zamami-son is too small to judge this TFR score as stable, and it will fluctuate significantly year by year. On the other hand, some indicators for Zamami-son are especially bad. For example, finance ranks 1,685th, child welfare, 1,667th, and older adult welfare, 1,645th, bringing its overall rating to 1,547th of the total 1,741 municipalities. Analyzing the radar chart of the three municipalities in Okinawa assured us to go further to investigate the municipal power of Nakagusuku-son, and to examine the reasons and factors for such a small municipality having attained a population increase. By doing so, we hope to be able to emulate the model developed by Nakagusuku-son in other municipalities suffering from population decline.

5.1.5 Nakagusuku-son: History and Population Changes 5.1.5.1

History of Nakagusuku-son and Nakagusuku Castle Ruins

People who live in Nakagusuku-son3 are proud to mention the cultural heritage of the Nakagusuku Castle Ruins. It is visible evidence of the Ryukyu Kingdom and is a perfect reflection of that period of time in Okinawa’s history. The Nakagusuku Castle Ruins are located 150–170m above sea level and can be found in the villages of Nakagusuku and Kita Nakagusuku on a lush plateau of limestone that forms a straight line from northeast to southwest (for these locations see Fig. 5.1). The southeast side faces a 15-meter-high jagged cliff, while the northwest faces a steep slope. The only access to the castle is the main gate and the rear gate, which are located on the north and south parts of the castle on the ridge of the hill. This made Nakagusuku Castle easy to defend and very difficult to attack (see Fig. 5.4 top). Nakagusuku Castle is divided into six enclosures. Its barricades are made from Ryukyu limestone and its beautiful curving lines are in perfect harmony with the natural rocks and landscapes (see Fig. 5.4). Nakagusuku Castle offers a beautiful panoramic view: to the east, you can see Nakagusuku Bay and the Pacific Ocean; to the west, you can see the city of Ginowan and the East China Sea; to the north, the Katsuren Peninsula and Yomitan; and to the south, Yonabaru and the Chinen Peninsula, which gives the site a picturesque touch. As we discussed earlier, the Ryukyu Kingdom was established about 590 years ago and lasted for over 450 years. It featured a feudal system that was established on the Nansei Archipelago of Japan. The Japanese government that was created during the Meiji restoration banished the king of the Ryukyu Kingdom and established the Okinawa Prefecture (instead of the Ryukyu Principality). This marked the fall of the Ryukyu Kingdom (Nakagusuku Kyodo Kanri Kyogikai 2018; Nakagusuku-jo site 2018; Nakagusuku Village Office 2013; Tabirai 2018). The term gusuku refers to the castles that were constructed between the 12th and 16th centuries. These gusukus were constructed by the so-called ajis, lords or chieftains of the gozoku (upper class). Based on the existing agricultural settlements,

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Fig. 5.4 World Heritage Nakagusuku Castle Ruins. Source Nakagusuku Castle, https://commons. wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Nakagusuku_Castle25bs3104.jpg, from Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository. Accessed 10 Mar 2020

the territories were divided at that time, and the ajis built gusukus as homes as well as places to protect themselves from their enemies. It is said that there were more than 300 gusukus in the Ryukyu Kingdom. Nakagusuku Castle is one of the bestpreserved castles in Okinawa, having suffered very little damage during past wars. Because of this fact, Nakagusuku Castle presents great historical and strategic value. The first generation of Nakagusuku ajis started construction of the castle in the second half of the 14th century. The construction lasted for a few generations. Around 1440 the Lord of Zakimi, “the Yomitan Mountains Aji (Lord) Gosamaru” moved to the castle by order of the king. It is said that Lord Gosamaru built the north enclosure and the third enclosure with the most advanced masonry technique at the time. Later on, administrative offices were established there, including the Nakagusuku Village Office, but it was destroyed during the war in 1945. After the war, the castle was transformed into the first park of the prefecture. It was used to entertain the Okinawan so they built a zoo and an amusement park. On May 15, 1972, Okinawa was given back to Japan. Nakagusuku Castle became a governmentdesignated historical site and on December 12, 2000 became a UNESCO World Heritage Site under the title “Gusuku Sites and Related Properties of the Ryukyu Kingdom.” On April 6, 2006 Nakagusuku Castle was chosen as one of the 100 most famous Japanese castles by the Japan Castle Foundation (Nakagusuku Kyodo Kanri Kyogikai 2018; Nakagusuku-jo site 2018; Nakagusuku Village Office 2013; Tabirai 2018).

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119

To this day, it is still not known when exactly Nakagusuku Castle was built or who was the first to live in it. All that is known is that Nakagusuku Castle was the home of the first Nakagusuku aji and Lord Gosamaru is the aji who made it famous. Lord Gosamaru was born in Yamada Castle and later succeeded the Yamada aji. He fought with Sho Hashi to unify the three kingdoms and was a hero of the first Sho dynasty. In return for his achievements, Lord Gosamaru was given the Yomitan mountains area. He built Zakimi Castle and started to live there and became the Yomitan aji, and worked with King Sho Hashi for unification of the Ryukyu Kingdom (Nakagusuku Kyodo Kanri Kyogikai 2018; Nakagusuku-jo site 2018; Nakagusuku Village Office 2013; Tabirai 2018). However, the aji of Katsuren, Amawari, was gaining power and in order to control him, the king ordered Lord Gosamaru to move to Nakagusuku where he became the Nakagusuku aji. Lord Gosamaru killed himself in 1458 because he knew that King Sho Taikyu, the sixth king of the Sho dynasty, sent Lord Amawari, the aji (lord) of Katsuren and the general of his army, to defeat him. It is said that Lord Amawari wanted the king’s throne and regarded Lord Gosamaru as a threat. In order to get rid of him, Lord Amawari set up a deception so that Lord Gosamaru would appear treasonous in the eyes of King Sho Taikyu (Nakagusuku Kyodo Kanri Kyogikai 2018; Nakagusuku-jo site 2018; Nakagusuku Village Office 2013; Tabirai 2018). King Sho Taikyu believed Lord Amawari and ordered Lord Amawari to attack Nakagusuku Castle. Seeing Lord Amawari brandishing the flag of the king’s army, Lord Gosamaru understood that it was a conspiracy. Being a servant of the king, Lord Gosamaru decided that he would not fight his king’s army. Instead, Lord Gosamaru entrusted his third son to his nurse’s care, who managed to escape with the child, while he performed suicide with his wife and the rest of his children. It is said that later, Lord Amawari’s treachery was discovered and that he was killed by the king’s army (Nakagusuku Kyodo Kanri Kyogikai 2018; Nakagusuku-jo site 2018; Nakagusuku Village Office 2013; Tabirai 2018). This event is called “the Gosamaru-Amawari disturbance” and is the theme of an Okinawan classic theatrical play (Kumiodori). The play depicts Lord Gosamaru as the king’s loyal servant and Lord Amawari as the treacherous rebel. This play is based on the interpretations of the Shuri Royal Government. However, there are other stories that depict Lord Amawari as a hero beloved by his people. This event is the most mysterious one in the Ryukyu Kingdom’s history (Nakagusuku Kyodo Kanri Kyogikai 2018; Nakagusuku-jo site 2018; Nakagusuku Village Office 2013; Tabirai 2018). In 1853, a U.S. naval expedition came to Japan, led by Commodore Matthew C. Perry, to pressure the country to open its borders. It also made a stop at the Ryukyu Islands, where Perry conducted an inland survey that included Nakagusuku Castle. From this expedition there are remains of some sketches of the castle and measurement plans. Perry wrote the following in his narrative of the Expedition of an American Squadron to the China Seas and Japan: “The material used to build the fortress is limestone and the masonry is an admirable construction. The stones are processed in a very interesting way and are carefully shaped and jointed, even though cement or mortar is not used. I think this work will last for a long time.”

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Foreign visitors of Japan who came from developed countries were astonished by the advanced construction technique of the Ryukyu inhabitants when they saw the barricades that had withstood wind and rain for more than 400 years (Nakagusuku Kyodo Kanri Kyogikai 2018; Nakagusuku-jo site 2018; Nakagusuku Village Office 2013; Tabirai 2018; Nakagusuku Village Office 2018).

5.1.5.2

Changes in the Population and Households of Nakagusuku-son

Nakagusuku-son with its history and scenic beauty has come to receive much attention for its significantly high population increase rates. The population had leveled off by 1980 (1972, 10,472 total; male, 5,089; female, 5,363; and 2000 households with an average household member size of 5.2). Since the latter half of the 1980s, however, its population has been increasing continuously. As of November 30, 2018, the total population was 21,249 with 10,625 males, 10,624 females, 8,577 households, and 2.5 average household members Nakagusuku Village Office 2018). The most recent population of Nakagusuku-son, 21,249 in November 2018, is much larger than the projected population of 21,012 in 2020 (IPSSR 2018b). It is somewhat astounding to note that despite continuous increases in population and household numbers, the family size in Nakagusuku-son today has decreased to less than half of its 1980 counterpart. With population aging, it is expected that older adults living alone or couples-only households would increase. In fact, this general trend is identified in Table 5.3. The decline in the proportion of the nuclear family household is observed except for the case of Nakagusuku-son. There, however, older adults living alone have been increasing. The increase in the nuclear family household type indicates that the social population increase in younger adults has been occurring in Nakagusuku-son. Such a changing trend will surely be reflected in its municipal power. The social population increase in Nakagusuku-son must be looked at with caution. That is, of the total 21 districts in Nakagusuku, the social population increase is observed only in the southwestern region of Minamiuebaru District. Reasons for this occurrence are two-fold. First, the Ryukyu University campus moved into the Minamiuebaru District of Nakagusuku-son in 1984. Subsequently, land readjustment projects were initiated, and housing development has been ongoing. Second, Minamiuebaru district of Nakagusuku-son is adjacent to nearby cities such as Naha and Urasoe (Nakagusuku-son Village Office 2016). It is outstanding that the population increase in Nakagusuku-son has occurred in the one-electrate concentration in Minamiuebaru District. In fact, as much as onethird of the village population is concentrated in the district (Nakagusuku-son Village Office 2016).

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Table 5.3 Proportions of household type for Japan, Okinawa Prefecture, Nakagusuku-son, Tomigusuku-shi, and Zamami-son: 1985 and 2015 Japan

1985

2015

Nuclear family household

60.04

55.79

Proportions of living alone households of older adults 65+

3.11

11.40

Proportions of older adults 65+ couple only households

3.73

11.11

Okinawa Prefecture

1980

2015

Nuclear family household

65.91

58.57

Proportions of living alone households of older adults 65+

2.78

7.33

Proportions of older adults 65+ couple only households

4.18

9.35

Nakagusuku-son

1980

2015

Nuclear family household

53.47

59.1

Proportions of living alone households of older adults 65+

5.12

Proportions of older adults 65+ couple only households

No data

Tomigusuku-shi

1980

2015

Nuclear family household

74.02

66.57

Proportions of living alone households of older adults 65+

1.89

7.22

Proportions of older adults 65+ couple only households

No data

Zamami-son

1980

2015

Nuclear family household

56.31

42.16

Proportions of living alone households of older adults 65+

10.68

Proportions of older adults 65+ couple only households

No data

6.03 6.14

5.90

7.06 12.80

Sources Statistics Bureau (2018a, b, c). Figures are compiled and the table is constructed by the author

5.1.6 Municipal Power of Nakagusuku-son Based on the population outlook of Nakagusuku-son that we have discussed above, four characteristics of its municipal power can be pointed out. First, the people in Nakagusuku-son exhibit a strong desire to continue living in the village (nearly 90%, including those who said they wish to move to other districts in the village, about 20%). Second, people express a strong desire to develop public transportation and urban infrastructures, while enhancing medical welfare programs, and organizing support programs for child rearing and child education. These should be taken as a negative municipal power of Nakagusuku-son which must be deliberated seriously. Third, with the youthful student body of Ryukyu University in the village, collaborative programs between the university and the village should be developed in all academic programs. Finally, the Nakagusuku Castle Ruins, a World Heritage Site, is an invaluable asset of Nakagusuku-son. As we have discussed already, it is a truly invaluable asset

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of Nakagusuku-son, of which the people should be proud. There is no way not to make full use of it to attract newcomers, and for all residents to enjoy it as well. The above-mentioned municipal power of Nakagusuku-son should be combined with modern information and communications technology (ICT) and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. Should it materialize, the population increase of Nakagusuku-son will be here to stay.

5.2 Fukuoka Prefecture and Kasuya-machi The second prefecture that we are going to discuss in this chapter is Fukuoka, for two reasons: First, the population increase rate of 2015 from the previous 2010 national census was 0.6%, and it was 6th highest of all the 47 prefectures. Second, regional population projections for 2040 and 2045 by IPSS report both as 7th highest of all the 47 prefectures, with −13.7% and by 2045, −10.7% increase rates respectively. Of all the 60 municipalities in Fukuoka Prefecture the population increase rate of Kasuya-machi in the Fukuoka District (ancient Chikugo Province) is outstandingly high (29.8% in 2040, and 20.4% in 2045) a high rate throughout Japan. Thus, we will investigate the municipal power of Kasuya-machi in detail (IPSSR 2013, 2018a).

5.2.1 A Brief History of Fukuoka Prefecture: Chikuzen, Chikugo, and Bizen Provinces of the Saikaido Fukuoka Prefecture is located in northern Kyushu and bounded by the Hibiki Sea to the north, the Inland Sea to the east, Oita Prefecture to the southeast, Kumamoto Prefecture to the south, the Ariake Sea and Saga Prefecture to the southwest, and the Genkai Sea to the northwest. The terrain is dominated by the Tsukushi Mountains, which cut across the middle of the prefecture from southwest to northeast. Flat areas are found in river and mountain valleys, including the broad plains around the river Chikugogawa in the south, the region around the city of Fukuoka in the west, and the area between the cities of Nogata and Kita Kyushu in the north. The climate is generally warm and mild, with relatively little precipitation in the coastal areas. Cloudy and stormy weather is common in the winter months (Fukuoka-kencho 2018; Kodansha 1983). Because of its proximity to the Asian mainland and its strategic location between Kyushu and Honshu, the Fukuoka area was one of the first areas to display notable cultural development. Yamatai-koku, the ancient Japanese kingdom referred to in the Chinese chronicle Wei Zhi, is believed by some scholars to have been located in this region, and prehistoric artifacts have been discovered in great quantities. Dazaifu, the central government outpost for all of Kyushu in the ancient period, was located approximately 15 kms south of today’s city of Fukuoka. Since Dazaifu was

5.2 Fukuoka Prefecture and Kasuya-machi

123

connected to the central government via the Saikaido and the Sannyodo, both circuits were considered important, and the latter was named as the only Tairo (the position of chief minister in the Edo era) of the seven circuits, and the former was named as one of the Churo (arbitration office) of the Goki-Shichido as discussed earlier in the book (see Chap. 1. Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations in Japan). Dazaifu served as the embarkation point for government missions to China. The Fukuoka coast was the scene of the Mongol invasions of the 13th century, and of a flourishing foreign trade in the 16th and 17th centuries. Under the old provincial system (Kokugun system) the area was divided into the three provinces of Chikuzen (north-western part) governed by the Kuroda-clan, Chikugo (southern part) governed by the Kurume-clan of Arima family, and Buzen (northeastern part) governed by the Kokura-clan (Fukuoka-kencho 2018; Kodansha 1983). Today, based on geographic, historical, and economic characteristics, 60 municipalities in Fukuoka Prefecture are divided into four districts, namely Kita-Kyushu (13 municipalities, formerly Buzen Province), Fukuoka (20 municipalities, formerly Chikuzen Province), Chikugo (12 municipalities), and Chikuho (15 municipalities, named after taking one Chinese character each from Chiku of Chikuzen Province, and from Hou of Buzen Province (see Fig. 5.5). The Kitakyushu District today inherits its ancient castle town of refined culture, which developed into a high-tech and environmentally conscious industrial zone. The population of Kitakyushu district (1,281,148) is the second largest of four districts, but the decrease (25,841, −2.0%, from the previous national census in 2010) is the largest of the four districts. Thirteen municipalities included in the district are Okagaki-machi, Ashiya-machi, Mizumaki-machi, Onga-cho, Nakamashi, Kitakyushu-shi, Kanda-machi, Yukihashi-shi, Miyako-machi, Chikujo-machi, Buzen-shi, Yoshitomi-machi, and Kouge-machi (Fukuoka-kencho 2018). The Fukuoka District, with the historical city of Dazaifu, prospered through international trade, and progressed into a core management sector in Kyushu with the accumulation of tertiary industries. The district today has developed into the leading commercial, economic, and political zone in western Japan. According to the 2015 national census, only the Fukuoka District of four districts in Fukuoka Prefecture shows a population increase from the previous national census in 2010 (3.8%, total population is 2,591,442 with 95,602 increase). The reason that the Fukuoka District attained a population increase is believed that the district learned lessons from its minus/negative municipal power to turn them into strengths. More concretely, the people in the Fukuoka District built a positive municipal power through private sectors, not government (Kinoshita 2018). Twenty municipalities included in the district are Munakata-shi, Fukutsu-shi, Koga-shi, Shingu-machi, Hisayama-machi, Kasuya-machi, Sasaguri-machi, Shime-machi, Sue-machi, Umi-machi, Itoshimashi (merged with Shima-machi, Nijo-machi, and Maebaru-shi in 2009), Fukuokashi, Kasuga-shi, Dazaifu-shi, Nakagawa-shi, Onojo-shi, Chikushino-shi, Chikuzenmachi, Asakura-shi, and Toho-mura (Fukuoka-kencho 2018). The Chikugo District is rich in a natural environment, and various primary industries have developed, such as agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Recently, however,

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Fig. 5.5 Map of Fukuoka Prefecture by municipality and by district (28 cities, 30 towns, and 2 villages = Total of 60 municipalities). Source GIS free color map, https://n.freemap.jp/st/list.html, and https://n.freemap.jp/tp/Fukuoka. Accessed 11 Mar 2020. The map is drawn by the author

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125

the district has been suffering from a population drain and aging. Being dominated by an agricultural socio-economic culture, the lifestyle of the people in the district is more or less conservative. The population of the Chikugo District in 2015 (812,402, a decrease of 25,841 from 2010) is the third largest after the Kitakyushu District. The population decrease rate from the previous national census (−2.5%) is second highest next to the Kitakyushu District. Twelve municipalities in the district include Ogori-shi, Tachiarai-machi, Kurume-shi, Ukiha-shi, Okawa-shi, Ooki-machi, Chikugo-shi, Hirokawa-nachi, Yame-shi (merged with Yame-shi, Kuroki-machi, Tachibana-machi, Hoshino-mura, Yabe-mura in 2008), Yanagawa-shi, Miyama-shi, and Omuta-shi (Fukuoka-kencho 2018). Finally, the Chikuho District, which used to be a large-scale coal mining zone, is becoming a mecca for the automobile industry. Furthermore, a transportation network to both the Fukuoka and the Kitakyushu districts has been organized, and various infrastructures have been developed from the socio-economic devastation of the past. The population of Chikuho District in 2015 is the smallest of the four districts (416,564, with −19,385 decrease from the previous national census in 2010). The population decrease rate of −4.4% is the largest of the four districts in Fukuoka Prefecture. Fifteen municipalities in the district are Kurate-machi, Miyawaka-shi, Nogata-shi, Kotake-machi, Iizuka-shi, Fukuchi-machi, Kawara-machi, Itoda-machi, Tagawa-shi, Keisen-machi, Kama-shi, Kawasaki-machi, Oto-machi, Aka-mura, and Soeda-machi (Fukuoka-kencho 2018). As we have just analyzed, each of these four districts in Fukuoka Prefecture has its own history and regional characteristics stemming from their own provincial backgrounds. Consequently, countermeasures for population decline in each district differ from one to the other. We should note, however, the emphasis placed on the international exchange of Asian nations, and other regions in the world is outstanding.

5.2.2 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power of Fukuoka Prefecture: Chikuzen, Chikugo, and Bizen Provinces of the Saikaido 5.2.2.1

Proportions of Generational Households by District/Province of the Saikaido in Fukuoka Prefecture: 2015

In order to examine differences in the household type by province in Fukuoka Prefecture let us look at Table 5.4. Of the four districts in Fukuoka Prefecture, it is evident that only the Chikugo District (formerly Chikugo Province) today exhibits a diverse outlook from the other three districts. As it has been proved that the generational households and the traditional farming and agricultural society in Japan go hand in hand (Shimizu 1986, 1992), we can see such characteristics in the Chikugo District. It

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Table 5.4 Proportions of generational households by district in Fukuoka Prefecture: 2015 Average %

Ranges Lowest % (Municipality)

Highest % (Municipality)

Japan average

13.29

–

–

Fukuoka Prefecture Average

11.58

–

–

Kita-Kyushu District (Buzen Province)

12.86

9.35 (Kita-Kyushu-shi)

16.90 (Kouge-mura)

Fukuoka District (Chikuzen Province)

12.01

7.36 (Fukuoka-shi)

36.81 (Toho-mura)

Chikugo District (Chikugo Province)

23.24

13.91 (Ogori-shi)

30.34 (Ukina-shi)

Chikuho District

14.98

11.29 (Tagawa-shi)

20.63 (Aka-mura)

Source Statistics Bureau, MIAC (2018a, b, c). The table is compiled and constructed by the author

also coincides with what we have just discussed about the Chikugo District. Proportions for the generational household of municipalities belonging to districts other than Chikugo are mostly below 20% or so, except for Toho-mura (36.81%) and Asakura-shi (26.26%), both in the Fukuoka District. Due to its rural environment, the Chikugo District as a whole is suffering from fertility decline and population aging. We should note, however, within the same district in Fukuoka Prefecture, the rate for population increase/decrease differs significantly. It is especially true for the Fukuoka District. The Fukuoka District today is noted for its prosperity in commerce, high tech industries, and political spheres in western Japan. However, we should examine closely regional variations within the district. Thus, let us analyze the municipal power of three municipalities within the district, namely Kasuya-machi, Fukuoka-shi, and Toho-mura.

5.2.2.2

Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power of Fukuoka District, Formerly Chikuzen Province of the Saikaido

The municipal power of household type, marriage power, population-sustaining power, and projected population increase rates from 2015 to 2045 of Kasuya-machi, Fukuoka-shi, and Toho-mura are examined. All three municipalities belong to the same Fukuoka District, but their municipal power differs significantly as seen in Table 5.5. Looking at the generational family household in 2015, we notice that the average rate for Fukuoka Prefecture is much higher than that of Fukuoka-shi, and Kasuya-machi as well. Nevertheless, the rate for Toho-mura is by far the highest of not only 20 municipalities in the Fukuoka District, but also in all 60 municipalities in Fukuoka Prefecture.

5.2 Fukuoka Prefecture and Kasuya-machi

127

Table 5.5 Municipal power of Fukuoka Prefecture: Kasuya-machi, Fukuoka-shi, and Toho-mura Municipality

Generational Marriage family household power 2013 2015 (%)a (‰)b

Population-sustaining power 2013 (%)b

Projected population increase rates 2015–2045 (%)c

Japan average

13.29

5.30

−0.19

−6.3

Fukuoka average

11.58

5.57

0.04

−10.7

Kasuya-machi

9.66

7.39

1.89

20.4

Fukuoka-shi

7.36

7.03

0.86

7.5

Toho-mura

36.81

3.32

−1.55

−50.7

Sources a Statistics Bureau, MIAC (2018a, b, c) b MIAC 2014 c IPSSR (2018b). The table is compiled and constructed by the author

When we examine marriage power and population-sustaining power in 2013, and projected population increase rates from 2015 to 2045, we notice two major characteristics. First, each indicator varies significantly among these three municipalities which belong to the same Fukuoka District. Second, although marriage power and population-sustaining power of 2013 seem to be related to each other, Kasuya-machi and Toho-mura seem to be on extreme ends of these indicators. In fact, the impact of marriage power (X) on the population-sustaining power (Y) for 60 municipalities in Fukuoka Prefecture is significant (Y = −2.321 + 0.397X, adjusted R2 = 0.208, P = 0.000). The marriage power of Kasuya-machi, however, is outstandingly strong, as is the population-sustaining power, and the projected population increase rate in 2045 is slightly more than one-fifth of the 2015 census population (20.4%). On the contrary, the marriage power of Toho-mura is far less than the average in Fukuoka Prefecture, hence its population-sustaining power becomes negative, as does its projected population increase rate in 2045. As we can imagine, Toho-mura in 2045 is projected to become a marginal settlement with the older adult population well over one-half of its total population (see Table 5.6). These results of municipal power for Fukuoka Prefecture suggest that we should analyze closely factors contributing to the projected population increase in 2045 of Kusuya-machi of the Fukuoka District, formerly Chikuzen Province.

5.2.2.3

Population Changes of Fukuoka Prefecture

The 2015 national census reveals that the population of Fukuoka Prefecture is 5,101,556, a 0.6% increase (29,588 people) from the previous national census (Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC] 2018a, b). The male-female ratio of the population is 89.6 (male 2,410,418 vs. female 2,691,138), a 0.2% increase for female. Ever since 1950 the female population has exceeded the

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Table 5.6 Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Fukuoka Prefecture, Kasuya-machi, Fukuoka-shi, and Toho-mura Japan

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

23.9

23.5

18.2

14.6

13.2

12.5

11.5

10.8

10.7

Working population 15–64

69.1

67.4

69.7

68.1

63.8

60.8

58.5

56.4

52.5

Older adults 65+ population

7.0

9.1

12.1

17.4

23.0

26.6

30.0

32.8

36.8

Old-Olds 75+ population

2.1

3.1

4.8

7.1

11.1

12.8

17.8

19.6

21.4

Fukuoka Prefecture

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

21.8

19.0

14.8

13.6

13.4

12.7

12.0

11.9

Working population 15–64

67.6

68.6

67.8

64.1

60.7

57.7

56.4

53.0

Older adults 65+ population

10.6

12.5

17.4

22.3

25.9

29.6

31.6

35.2

4.1

5.1

7.3

11.0

12.5

17.1

19.4

20.2

Old-Olds 75+ population Kasuya-machi

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

26.7

21.2

16.9

18.1

18.8

18.2

17.5

17.2

Working population 15–64

66.9

69.8

71.2

67.1

64.3

64.3

63.9

59.4

Older adults 65+ population

6.4

9.0

11.9

14.8

16.9

17.5

18.6

23.3

Old-Olds 75+ population

2.0

3.3

4.6

6.3

7.2

9.6

9.9

10.8

Fukuoka-shi

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

23.3

18.8

14.3

13.3

13.3

12.4

11.7

11.5

Working population 15–64

69.8

72.0

72.4

69.1

66.0

63.4

60.9

56.8

Older adults 65+ population

6.9

9.2

13.3

17.6

20.7

24.2

27.3

31.7

Old-Olds 75+ population

2.3

3.6

5.3

8.2

9.5

13.6

15.8

17.7

Toho-mura

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

18.2

17.6

13.5

10.4

10.2

10.2

9.9

9.9

Working population 15–64

64.5

59.0

53.3

51.6

49.3

40.4

37.5

37.4

Older adults 65+ population

17.3

23.4

33.2

38.0

40.5

49.4

52.6

52.7

6.8

11.1

16.1

25.0

25.9

28.6

37.7

38.8

Old-Olds 75+ population

Source For 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2015 National Census, for 2025, 2035, and 2045 IPSSR (2018b). The table is compiled and constructed by the author

male counterpart in Fukuoka Prefecture, and the differences have been increasing recently. In 2015, the total population of Fukuoka Prefecture ranked 9th, and its population increase rate was 6th from the top of the 47 prefectures. Since the first national census in 1920 the population of Fukuoka Prefecture made substantial increases until the year 1960 (from 2,188,249 to 4,006,679). It has continued its growth (4,027,416 in 1970) and continues to increase today. The population increase rate, however, hit its highest in 1975 (6.6% of the previous national census), and is continuing to decline. According to the population projection by IPSSR (2018b), the population of Fukuoka Prefecture will decline to 4,554,486 by 2045 (IPSSR 2018b).

5.2 Fukuoka Prefecture and Kasuya-machi

129

Projections for population increase rates by municipality in 2040 in Fukuoka Prefecture are presented by way of the GPS G-Census geographic feature (see Fig. 5.6). In looking at the figure we can see immediately areas where projected population increase rates are high in 2040, mostly in the northwestern part of Fukuoka Prefecture, i.e., Fukuoka District. It is especially so for Fukuoka-shi, its vicinitiy and surrounding municipalities. It is true that Fukuoka-shi is not only the capital of Fukuoka Prefecture, but also the center for the entire Kushu Island, and western Japan as well. However, both the southern part, (Chikugo district), and the eastern part of Fukuoka Prefecture, (Chikuho District) and the western part of the Kitakyushu District show a population decline. When we look at the population in Fukuoka Prefecture the top three municipalities account for more than half (55%) of the total population. These three municipalities are Fukuoka-shi in the Fukuoka District, formerly Chikuzen Province (1,538,681 people, and 30.2% of the total population in Fukuoka Prefecture), Kitakyushushi of the Kitakyushu District, formerly Buzen Province (961,286 people, 18.8%), and Kurume-shi of the Chikugo District (304,552 people, 6.0%), formerly Chikugo Province.

Fig. 5.6 Projected population increase rates by municipality for Fukuoka Prefecture: 2010–2040. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020

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The municipality with the least population is Toho-mura, on the eastern tip of the Fukuoka District (2,174), followed by Aka-mura (3,022), and the Oto-machi (5,176) of the Chikuho District, and Yoshitomi-machi (6,627) and Kouge-machi of the Kitakyushu District also show low populations (for locations of municipalities see Fig. 5.5).

5.2.2.4

Population Changes by Age Group: Fukuoka, Kasuya-machi, Fukuoka-shi, and Toho-mura

As seen is Table 5.6, the child population of Fukuoka Prefecture in 2015 declined slightly (8,079) from the previous national census, and its proportion (13.4%) ranks 7th highest of the total 47 prefectures. The working population, on the other hand, decreased substantially (−170,077), and the proportion is the same as the national average (60.7%) ranking 11th of all the prefectures. The population of older adults (65+) in 2015, however, increased substantially (181,388), and exceeded one quarter of the total population in Fukuoka Prefecture (25.9%) for the first time. Even so, the proportion of older adults in Fukuoka Prefecture ranks 38th from the top (10th from the bottom) of all the 47 prefectures. Thus, at this stage, the aging level of Fukuoka Prefecture cannot be said as outstandingly high yet. Nevertheless, the proportion of the older adult population in Fukuoka Prefecture will become one third of the total population in years to come. Of all the 60 municipalities in Fukuoka Prefecture, as discussed earlier, the population decrease rate of Toho-mura in the 2015 national census is the highest (−10.6%), and it will decline as much as -43.6% from the 2015 national census level (see Table 3.2 in Chap. 3). The proportion of the older adult population in Toho-mura is expected to exceed half the entire population by sometime around 2030, and become a marginal settlement. Based on these findings of population changes by age group in Fukuoka Prefecture, we can see that the old-old population will continue to increase substantially. Furthermore, Fukuoka Prefecture will move on to a fertility-declining and population-aging society rapidly from now on.

5.2.2.5

Factors Contributing Population Increase in Fukuoka Prefecture

It is true that the population of Fukuoka Prefecture as a whole has been increasing. However, we must analyze the factors with caution. When we looked at the population of Fukuoka Prefecture we noted that both the child and the working population are declining continuously, while the older adult counterpart is increasing. In other word, as it has been discussed in the previous section, we now know that the population of Fukuoka Prefecture comes from a substantial increase in the older adult population. Thus, Fukuoka Prefecture is truly on the verge of a fertility-declining and populationaging society.

5.2 Fukuoka Prefecture and Kasuya-machi

131

Declines in both the child population and working population that pays taxes and pension premiums are evident while the population of older adults increases substantially. In other words, the population increase in Fukuoka Prefecture is largely attributed to an increase in older adults. It is essential to realize this structural problem of the population increase, which should not be welcome for the long-range perspective of a population-sustainable society. According to the IPSSR report (2018b), the population of Fukuoka Prefecture in 2045 will decline by −10.7% from that of 2015 (see Table 3.3 in Chap. 3). However, it is projected that the older adult population will increase faster than the national average. Furthermore, rates for the population decrease in Fukuoka Prefecture differ not only by the district which is more or less based on the ancient province, but also municipalities within the same district itself. Thus, any countermeasure for the population decline in Fukuoka Prefecture will differ from one municipality to the other, reflecting municipal power and regional characteristics.

5.2.3 Municipal Power of Kasuya-machi The IPSSR report (2013) reveals that the projected population increase rate of Kasuya-machi from the 2010 national census to 2040 would be 29.0%, which is not only the highest among all the municipalities in Fukuoka, but also throughout Japan. Kasuya-machi has been developing as a commuter suburb of Fukuoka-shi, and its population has been growing continuously ever since 1970. Therefore, knowledge of the municipal power of Kasuya-machi would likely contribute to policies for other municipalities throughout Japan which are facing the critical issue of population decline.

5.2.3.1

An Overview of Kasuya-machi

Kasuya-machi resulted from the merger of Ookawa-mura and Nakahara-mura on March 31, 1957, a typical farming town with a population of 11,607, and a flat land area of only 14.12 km2 . Kasuya-machi adjoins five municipalities, namely Fukuokashi on the west, Hisayama-machi on the north, Sasaguri-machi and Sue-machi on the east, and Shimen-machi on the south (see Fig. 5.5). The town is rich in natural surroundings with the Tatara River running east to west, and the Sue River from south to north. The land of Kasuya-machi is more or less flat, but there is a large botayama (a pile of coal waste) at the south-eastern border of Sue-machi and Shimen-machi resulting from Shimen Coal Mine. Furthermore, there are reservoirs in Kasuyamachi, such as Yayoicho-pond which is one of five large tameike4 (reservoirs/farm ponds) in Chikuzen: Shikinawa-pond, Kodaima-pond, Shindaima-pond, and Moutapond (Kasuya-machi 2019). The strength of Kasuya-machi that we must point out is its blessed situation as a hub of traffic. All the major roads in the metropolitan Fukuoka area run

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through Kasuya-machi. More concretely, they are the Fukuoka interchange of Kyushu Expressway, the ramp of Fukuoka Expressway, national highway No. 201, and Fukuoka outer ring lines which surround the metropolitan Fukuoka area. In addition, in Kasuya-machi there are six stations on the JR (Japan Railway Co.) line. One can easily get to the JR Hakata station in 10 minutes on the JR line, or in 20 minutes by car. Thus, we can say that Kasuya-machi has benefited from the convenience of city functions (Kasuya-machi 2019). Furthermore, Kasuya-machi is also blessed with a natural environment. While located in the suburb of Fukuoka city many rural areas are still left today, and people in the suburbs grow broccoli and other vegetables. Together with the commercial and the hub of traffic developments Kasuya-machi today has come to advance to a distribution business center (Kasuya-machi 2019). Kasuya-machi being blessed with an environment in which the city and nature are in harmony, the projected population increase rate in 2040 from 2010 will be 29.8%, the highest of all the 1,741 municipalities in Japan (IPSSR 2013). Although fertility decline and population aging are in progress widely throughout Japan, Kasuya-machi has a high birth rate, and an average age of 39 years, from the child-rearing generation.

5.2.3.2

Changes in the Population in Kasuya-machi

Since the 1960s Kasuya-machi has been developing as a commuter town to Fukuokashi. Consequently, its population has been increasing continuously (1970, 18,691; 2000, 34,811; 2010, 41,997; and 2015, 45,360). The population increase rate of Kasuya-machi from the 2010 national census to the 2015 counterpart is 8.0%, and the second highest, next to Shingu-machi (23.0%) of all the 60 municipalities in Fukuoka Prefecture. The population increase rate for 2015 of Kasuya-machi ranks 24th of all the 1741 municipalities in Japan. In addition, it has 151 (0.3%) more people than what was projected in 2010 (Statistics Bureau 2018a, b). The projected population of Kasuya-machi in 2045 is 54,631 (20.4% increase from 2015), with an increase rate that is 14th highest of all the municipalities in Japan at that time. Then, the average age for the people in Kasuya-machi in 2045 would be 42.9 years of age, a 3.2 year increase from 39.7 years of age in 2015 (IPSSR 2018b). We have discussed earlier that the marriage power and population-sustaining power of Fukuoka are significantly related to each other (see Table 5.5). For the case of Kasuya-machi, in particular, the relationship is outstanding (marriage power, 7.39; and population-sustaining power, 1.89). Consequently, the natural population increase rate for Kasuya-machi is also high (1.02%/year as opposed to −0.1%/year for the Fukuoka prefectural average). The social population increase rate, on the other hand, was once minus in 2011, i.e., more people moved out rather than moved in. Except for the year 2011 the social population increase rate has been positive, and more people are moving in than moving out (Kasuya-machi Town Office 2016). The number of live births in Kasuya-machi is also high. The average live births in a year is 721, or 17.3 live births per every 1,000 population (the national average

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is 8.4 live births per 1,000). It is the highest of all the 1741 municipalities in Japan (Kasuya-machi Town Office 2016).

5.2.3.3

Population Changes of Kasuya-machi by Age Group

It is true that the proportion of both the child and working populations of Kasuyamachi has been declining. However, the proportion of the child population in 2015 (18.1%) is much higher than the national average (12.5%) and the Fukuoka prefectural average (12.5%). However, the proportion of older adults 65 and over (16.9%) is exceedingly lower than the national average (26.6%) and the Fukuoka prefectural average (25.9%). The process of aging will continue to progress in Kasuya-machi (projected to be 23.3% in 2045), but its speed is much slower than the national average (36.8%), and/or other municipalities in Fukuoka Prefecture (see Table 5.6). When we examine the population of Kasuya-machi by the actual number of people in each age group, a somewhat different feature could be highlighted. That is, the total number of people is expected to increase, and the actual population in all three age groups is also expected to increase. In many municipalities in Japan both the child and the working populations are forecast to decline, while the older adult population increases. In Kasuya-machi, instead, the population is projected to increase across the age groups from 2015 to 2045 (child population, 8,503 to 9,411; working population, 29,196 to 32,466; and older adult population, 7,661 to 12,754). As a consequence, the child and the working populations of Kasuya-machi in 2045 will be considerably higher, and that of the older adult population will be much lower than other municipalities (see Table 5.6, Fig. 5.7).

5.2.3.4

Radar Chart of Kasuya-machi

The moment we look at the radar chart in Fukuoka Prefecture for Kasuya-machi, Fukuoka-shi, and Toho-mura, we notice a clear difference in these three municipalities. Although the comprehensive evaluation for Kasuya-machi is 601st of the total 1,741 municipalities, its population-related indexes received high evaluations. More specifically, the natural population increase rate ranks 2nd; TFR, 19th; and the social population increase rate 60th of the 1,741 municipalities. These population-related indicators, therefore, are taken as a positive municipal power for Kasuya-machi. Economic indicators for Kasuya-machi are not evaluated highly, perhaps because economic activities do not take place so much within the municipality. It reflects the fact that Kasuya-machi is a commuter town to the adjacent capital city of Fukuoka, and therefore, the people who live there are not engaged in economic production. The negative municipal power of Kasuya-machi is shown in the radar chart. Traffic safety ranks 1,732nd; security, 1,716th; child welfare, 1,628th; and older adult welfare, 1,525th. Should Kasuya-machi overcome these negative municipal power indicators, and continue to keep up with the positive ones the population increase of the town will be here to stay.

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Fig. 5.7 Fukuoka Prefecture radar chart: Kasuya-machi, Fukuoka-shi, and Toho-mura. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fuji Laboratories, Ltd. https://evacva.net/app/? lang=en&radar_dataset=default. Accessed 11 July 2018

5.2.3.5

Municipal Power and Resources in Kasuya-machi

First of all we should mention Kayoicho-koen, the popular park where people from all sectors of life can enjoy sports and recreation surrounded by rich natural environments throughout the year. In the park there is a spacious rose garden (1,300 m2 ) with 180 species and roses of approximately 2,400 stocks. In addition, around the promenade of Kayoicho-koen 700 cherry trees are planted, and bloom spectacularly in the spring (Kasuya-machi Town Office 2019). Kasuya-machi possesses a wide range of designated cultural properties. There are historical sites, natural treasures, and tangible cultural properties (Kasuya-machi Town Office 2019). Unfortunately, they are not well-known to the public. Thus, it is hoped that they are introduced to the public more effectively with the help of a highly developed modern ICT. Kasuya-machi has been well recognized throughout Japan as a populationincreasing municipality. When the people recognize the municipal power of Kasuyamachi, the rich natural environment and the abundance of designated cultural treasures, and transmit this information actively to the outside world the population increase of the town will further accelerate.

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5.3 Osaka Prefecture and Tajiri-cho 5.3.1 The Outlook of Osaka Prefecture: Settsu, Kawachi, and Izumi Provinces The third prefecture we will analyze in the current chapter is Osaka. It is the most centrally-located prefecture in Japan. The prefecture shapes a long curve in the north and south, and is surrounded by four prefectures, namely Kyoto Prefecture to the north, Nara Prefecture to the east, Wakayama Prefecture to the south, and Hyogo Prefecture to the west. The total area of Osaka Prefecture is 1899 km2 , about 0.5% of the total area of Japan, and the second smallest prefecture next to Kagawa (1877 km2 ). The population of Osaka Prefecture, however, is third largest (8,839,000), next to Tokyo (13,515,000) and Kanagawa (9,126,000) prefectures in the 2015 national census, accounting for nearly 7% of the total Japanese population. Thus, Osaka Prefecture today forms a huge urban area in Japan (Osaka Prefecture 2015). In addition, of all the foreigners with non-Japanese citizenship residing in Japan at the end of 2017 (2,561,848) 8.9% reside in Osaka while Tokyo has 21.0%; and Aichi, 9.5% (Ministry of Justice 2018). Under the ancient system of the Goki-Shichido (the five home provinces and seven circuits) three home provinces, Settsu, Kawachi, and Izumi were included in today’s Osaka Prefecture. After the Meiji Restoration these three provinces were not used for administrative divisions. Instead, Osaka Prefecture was divided into eight districts. Settsu Province became Mishima, Toyono, and Osaka-shi districts; Kawachi Province became Minami-Kawachi, Naka-Kawachi, and Kita-Kawachi districts, and Izumi Province became Senboku and Sennan districts (Osaka Prefecture 2015). As is true for any other prefecture in Japan, Osaka Prefecture can never be discussed as a whole since it entails diverse regional variations. Osaka’s 43 municipalities (33 cities, 9 towns, and 1 village, see Fig. 5.8) today are divided into eight districts. Let us list the municipalities which belong to each of these eight districts. (See Fig. 5.8 for their locations.) • Osaka-shi (24 wards), • Mishima District (5 municipalities: Suita-shi, Takatsuki-shi, Ibaraki-shi, Settsushi, and Shimamoto-cho), • Toyono District (5 municipalities: Toyonaka-shi, Ikeda-shi, Minoh-shi, Toyonocho, and Nose-cho), • Senboku District (5 municipalities: Sakai-shi, Izumiotsu-shi, Izumi-shi, Takaishishi, Tadaoka-cho), • Sennan District (8 municipalities: Kishiwada-shi, Kaizuka-shi, Izumisano-shi, Hannan-shi, Sennan-shi, Kumatori-cho, Tajiri-cho, Misaki-cho), • Minami-Kawachi District (9 municipalities: Tondabayashi-shi, Kawachinaganoshi, Matsubara-shi, Habikino-shi, Fujiidera-shi, Osakasayama-shi, Taishi-cho, Kanan-cho, Chihayaakasaka-mura),

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Fig. 5.8 Map of Osaka Prefecture by municipality and by district (33 cities, 9 towns, and 1 village = Total of 43 municipalities). Source GIS free color map, https://n.freemap.jp/st/list.html, and https:// n.freemap.jp/tp/Osaka. Accessed 11 Mar 2020. The map is drawn by the author

• Naka-Kawachi District (3 municipalities: Yao-shi, Kashiwara-shi, Higashiosakashi) • Kita-Kawachi District (7 municipalities: Moriguchi-shi, Hirakata-shi, Neyagawashi, Daito-shi, Kadoma-shi, Shijonawate-shi, Katano-shi).

5.3.2 A Brief History of Osaka Prefecture Archeological remains, including excavated materials such as paleolithic-style stone utensils, show that men settled in the prefecture more than 10,000 years ago. Around the 5th century, continental Chinese culture was introduced to Osaka via the Korean Peninsula, and Osaka became the center of politics and culture in Japan (Osaka Prefecture 2010).

5.3 Osaka Prefecture and Tajiri-cho

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From the 6th to the 8th centuries, Naniwazu was the major port of departure from Japan to the East Asian continent. It was during this period that Buddhism, continental culture and technology were brought to Japan by Korean and Chinese kikajin (immigrants). In the 7th century, a capital castle (tojyo) was built in Osaka using Chinese construction methods, for the first time in Japan. Walls surrounding the city jyokaku (a city by walls) protected it from invasion by enemies. Although the capital of Japan moved to Nara, and/or Kyoto afterwards, Osaka continued to remain a gateway of culture, commerce and business (Osaka Prefecture 2010). Since the end of the 12th century, samurai warriors, rather than aristocrats, controlled the administration, and the city of Osaka declined from the middle of the Heian period (794–1185) to the period of Northern and Southern Courts (1336– 1392). However, the city of Sakai flourished from around the end of the Muromachi period (1333–1568) as a center of foreign trade. With the construction of Osaka Castle by Toyotomi Hideyoshi, who achieved the unification of Japan in 1583, Osaka once more prospered as a center of politics and commerce (Osaka Prefecture 2010). In the Edo period (1600–1868), Osaka and Sakai were put under the direct but remote control of the Tokugawa shogunate. Consequently, Osaka was freed from the strict supervision of any specific clan family, unique among the regions in Japan at that time (Takemitsu 2001). This loose control contributed to the prosperous development of the society of Osaka. In fact, warehouses of various domains were constructed in Osaka, and the city, called the Tenka no Daidokoro (the center of business) became an important distribution center of rice and other products throughout the nation. In this period the city of Osaka, backed by the enormous economic power of merchants, developed a unique culture called Kamigata, significantly different from that of its Edo counterpart. It is the culture for townspeople in Osaka represented by such people as haiku poet Nishiyama Soin, the novelist Ihara Saikaku, and the playwright Chikamatsu Monzaemon (Osaka Prefecture 2010). Based on the economic strength of emerging townspeople, a free and open-hearted spirit, not bound by formality and/or sect, was nurtured in the city of Osaka, where people acquired a high degree of pursuit for learning. The Kaitoku-Do was opened in 1724 by five powerful merchants in Osaka for townspeople with a high learning sprit. After two years it became Osaka Gakumon Jyo, a half-public, half-private learning institution. The moral principle of Osaka Gakumon Jyo is neo-Confucianism, respect for the rationality which denies superstition, and respect for the natural sciences. The other notable private school opened in Osaka was Teki-Jyuku, opened in 1838 by the scholar Ogata Koan emphasizing the freedom of learning and independence. Being attracted by the personality and high scholarship of Ogata Koan, thousands of aspiring youths from all over Japan came to Teki-Jyuku to study under his leadership. These two schools, Kaitoku-Do and Teki-Jyuku, closed down at the beginning of the Meiji era, and the faculty of Teki-Jyuku joined to establish Osaka Medical School (Medical School of Osaka National University today), and the collection of books of KaitokuDo was donated to the University of Osaka as the Kaitoku-Do Library. Thus, the academic minds of these two schools have been succeeded by the Osaka National University (Saitama Prefecture 2007). It is certain that these cultural backgrounds

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contributed to make the culture and the personality of the people in Osaka openminded, and generated entrepreneurial spirit. After the establishment of the modern prefectural system in 1871 the boundaries of Osaka Prefecture were defined in 1871. The turmoil caused by the Meiji Restoration and the establishment of a modern nation placed burdens on the shoulders of the people in Osaka. However, once out of stagnation, the city of Osaka developed into a major center of commerce and industries, mainly spinning cloth, during the Meiji period (1868–1912). After World War II the metal, machinery, and chemical industries witnessed a dramatic growth, and as much as 70% of the total production of Osaka Prefecture come from the heavy and chemical industries. The industrial center, known as the Hanshin Industrial Zone, is located along the lower reaches of the river Yodogawa, and afterwards iron and steel, shipbuilding, oil, and lumber industrial complexes were constructed on land reclaimed from Osaka Bay. More recently in 1994 the Kansai International Airport known as Kanku was built in the middle of Osaka Bay, contributing significantly to Osaka becoming one of the leading global cities in the world (Kodansha 1983; Osaka Prefecture 2010).

5.3.3 Population of Osaka Prefecture by District The population of Osaka Prefecture (8.84 million in 2015) and its increase rates vary significantly from one district to the other (see Fig. 5.9)5 . When we look at the population by district, the concentration is outstandingly high in the Osaka District. Osaka became a city in 1889, then a special city in 1947, to Seirei Shitei Toshi (a city that government designated by ordinance) in 1956 when its population exceeded 500,000, and was divided into 24 wards in 1989. The population of Osaka-shi is 2.7 million today, slightly more than one third of the entire population of Osaka Prefecture, in an area of 221 km2 . The city, located in about the middle of Osaka Prefecture, is the prefectural capital, and the center of economic activity of the prefecture (Osaka Convention & Tourism Bureau 2019). As we have pointed out earlier, the population of Osaka Prefecture, 8,839,469 in 2015, decreased by 25,776 people (−0.29%) from the previous national census in 2010). It is the third largest prefecture in Japan. However, the population increase rates for 2040 (−15.9%) would rank 10th, and for 2045 (−17.0%) would rank 11th (see Tables 3.2 and 3.3). In fact, the decline in the population in Osaka Prefecture in 2015 is the first time in 68 years since the extraordinary national census held in 1947 (Statistics Bureau 2018a, b). That may indicate the substantial projected population decrease rates for 2040 and 2045. When we analyze the population increase rate (from 2010 to 2015) of Osaka Prefecture by district it is clear we must grasp the regional variations. Only three of eight districts show an increase, namely the Mishima District (+1.88%), Osaka-shi District (+0.87%), and the Toyono District (+0.77%). The remaining five districts, however, show a population decline: (Senboku District, −0.60%; Naka-Kawachi

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Fig. 5.9 Projected population increase rates by municipality for Osaka Prefecture: 2010–2040. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020

District, −1.53%; Kita-Kawachi District, −1.85%; Sennan District, −2.09%; and Minami-Kawachi District, −3.04%, Osaka Prefectural Government 2018). Even within the same district, however, there exist wide variations in population increase rates. In Sennan District, for example, the population increase rate is negative, i.e., on the decline, but Tajiri-cho in the same district attained as high as +4.11% population increase rate, and its projected population increase rate for 2040 is expected to be +3.4% (Osaka Prefectural Government 2018; IPSSR 2013). These scores for Tajiri-cho are the highest population increase rates among all the 43 municipalities in Osaka Prefecture. In Toyono District, the population increment is on the rise, but the population increase rate for Nose-cho is highly negative (−1.97%), and is the highest negative rate of all the 43 municipalities in Osaka Prefecture. The same could be said for the projected population increase rate for Nose-cho in the year 2040 (−45.6%). These statistics will, perhaps, symbolize the regional variations and municipal power of Osaka Prefecture.

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5.3.4 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power of Osaka Prefecture 5.3.4.1

Proportions of Generational Households by District in Osaka Prefecture: 2015

In examining the proportion of generational households by district in Osaka Prefecture we notice that there exist wide variations from one district to the other, and within the same district as well (see Table 5.7). The average proportion of generational households is highest in the Sennan District, and its variation is not so wide. In fact, the production of agricultural products, mostly vegetables and fruits, in Sennan district is much larger than any other district in Osaka Prefecture. Furthermore, there are many fishing ports in the Sennan District (Osaka Prefecture 2015). Although it is lower than the national average, the relatively high proportion of generational households in the Sennan District may be due to the fact more people are engaged in primary industries in the area. Nevertheless, it is premature to say that that the high proportion of generational households in the Sennan District, among other districts in Osaka Prefecture, would reflect the traditional farming and agricultural society in Japan. It is just because the proportion is slightly over 10% of the total household types, and even much lower than the national average. Thus, we would be correct to say that the low level of generational household in Osaka Prefecture would reflect the overall characteristics of urban society, regardless of the ancient provincial differences of Settsu, Kawachi, and/or Izumi. We should note, however, within the same district in Osaka Prefecture, the rate for generational households differs significantly. It is especially true for the Toyono Table 5.7 Proportions of generational households by district in Osaka Prefecture: 2015 Average Ranges % Lowest % (Municipality) Highest % (Municipality) Japan average

–

–

Osaka Prefecture average

13.29 7.95

5.55 (Suita-shi)

22.27 (Nose-cho)

Osaka-shi District

8.12

6.85 (Tsurumi-ku)

11.48 (Ikuno-ku)

Mishima District

6.39

5.55 (Suita-shi)

7.42 (Settsu-shi)

Toyono District

10.43

5.83 (Toyonaka-shi)

22.27 (Nose-cho)

Senboku District

9.15

7.47 (Takaishi-shi)

11.98 (Tadaoka-cho)

Sennan District

10.81

9.55 (Hannan-shi)

12.12 (Misaki-cho)

Minami-Kawachi District 10.62

7.31 (Osakasayama-shi)

17.67 (Chihayaakasaka-mura)

Naka-Kawachi District

8.41

8.35 (Higashiosaka-shi)

8.53 (Kashiwara-shi)

Kita-Kawachi District

7.60

6.45 (Hirakata-shi)

8.50 (Kadoma-shi)

Source Statistics Bureau, MIAC (2018a, b, c). The table is compiled and constructed by the author

5.3 Osaka Prefecture and Tajiri-cho

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District which includes Toyonaka-shi, Ikeda-shi, Minoh-shi, Toyono-cho, and Nosecho. As we have witnessed earlier, Osaka Prefecture today is noted for its commercial prosperity and has become one of the leading urban areas in the world. However, we should examine closely regional variations within the district. Thus, let us analyze the municipal power of three municipalities within the prefecture, namely Osakashi, Tajiri-cho, and Nose-cho. Osaka-shi is the prefectural capital. Tajiri-cho has the highest population increase rate projection (3.4%) among all the 43 municipalities in Osaka Prefecture in 2040 despite belonging to the population-declining Sennan district. The projected population decrease rate for Nose-cho in 2040 is the highest (−45.6%) in Osaka Prefecture.

5.3.4.2

Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power of Osaka Prefecture, Osaka-shi, Tajiri-cho, and Nose-cho

The municipal power of household type, marriage power, population-sustaining power, and projected population increase rates from 2015 to 2045 of Osaka-shi, Tajiri-cho, and Nose-cho are examined. These three municipalities belong to the same district as Sennan in Osaka Prefecture, and their municipal power differs significantly as seen in Table 5.8. They present good examples of diversity in the same prefecture in Japan. Looking at the generational family household in 2015, we notice that the average rate for Osaka Prefecture is the lowest of the statistics presented on the table. Yet, the rate for Nose-cho is by far the highest, not only among municipalities in the Toyono District, but also in all the 43 municipalities in Osaka Prefecture. When we examine marriage power and population-sustaining power in 2013 and projected population increase rates from 2015 to 2045, we notice two major characteristics. First, each indicator varies significantly among these three municipalities. Second, although marriage power and population-sustaining power of 2013 seem Table 5.8 Municipal power of Osaka Prefecture: Osaka-shi, Tajiri-cho, and Nose-cho Municipality

Generational family household 2015 (%)a

Marriage power 2013 (%)b

Population-Sustaining power 2013 (%)b

Japan Average

13.29

5.30

−0.19

−6.3

Osaka average

7.95

5.60

−0.08

−17.0

Osaka-shi

8.12

7.04

0.16

−10.4

Tajiri-cho

9.88

4.15

3.09

−11.6

Nose-cho

22.27

3.32

−1.96

−58.1

Sources a Statistics Bureau, MIAC (2018a, b, c) b MIAC 2014 c IPSSR (2018b). The table is compiled and constructed by the author

Projected population increase rates 2015-2045 (%)c

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to be related to each other, Tajiri-cho and Nose-cho are at extreme ends of these indicators. In fact, the impact of marriage power (X) on the population-sustaining power (Y) for 43 municipalities in Osaka Prefecture is significant (Y = −2.29 + 0.387X, adjusted R2 = 0.552, P = 0.000). We notice a somewhat unexpected figure of marriage power for Tajiri-cho, which is much lower than expected. However, the population-sustaining power, and the projected population increase rates in 2045 are much higher than expected. It indicates that the population structure of Tajiri-cho might differ from what is expected. Furthermore, the marriage power of Nose-cho is far less than the average in Osaka Prefecture, hence its population-sustaining power becomes negative, as does its projected population increase rate in 2045. As we can imagine, Nose-cho in 2045 is projected to become a marginal settlement with the older adult population well over one-half of its total population (see Table 5.8). These results of municipal power for Osaka Prefecture suggest that we should analyze closely factors contributing to the projected population increase in 2045 of Tajiri-cho of the Sennan District, formerly Izumi Province.

5.3.4.3

Population Changes by Age Group of Osaka Prefecture: Osaka-shi, Tajiri-cho, and Nose-cho

As seen in Table 5.9 the 2015 child population of Osaka Prefecture (1,083,111) in 2015 declined slightly (−72,089) from the previous national census, and its proportion (12.5%) ranks 29th highest of the total 47 prefectures. The working population (5,341,654), on the other hand, decreased substantially (−306,418), and the proportion declined to 61.3% which ranks 10th highest of all the 47 prefectures. The population of older adults 65+ in 2015 (2,278,324), however, increased substantially (+315,576), and exceeded one quarter of the total population in Osaka Prefecture (26.2%) for the first time. Even so, the proportion of older adults in Osaka Prefecture ranks 37th from the top (11th from the bottom) of the 47 prefectures. Thus, at this stage, the aging level of Osaka Prefecture cannot be said as outstandingly high yet. Nevertheless, the proportion of the older adults in Osaka Prefecture will become one third of the total population in years to come. In fact, it is projected that by 2030 more than 30%, and by 2040 more than 40% of all the people in Osaka Prefecture will be 65 or older. In other words, aging in Osaka Prefecture is progressing much faster than the national average. Of all the 43 municipalities in Osaka Prefecture, the population decrease rate in 2015 was the highest in Nose-cho (−11.97%), and by the year 2045 it will decline as much as −45.6% of the 2015 national census level (see Table 3.2 in Chap. 3). The total population of Nose-cho in 2015 was 10,256, and the decrease rate was 104th of the municipalities in Japan, and it is 410 people (3.8%) fewer than what was projected. In other words, the population decrease in Nose-cho has been progressing much faster than had been projected. On the other hand, the proportion of the older adult population in Nose-cho is expected to exceed half the entire population soon

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Table 5.9 Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Osaka Prefecture, Osaka-shi, Tajiri-cho and Nose-cho Japan

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

23.9

23.5

18.2

14.6

13.2

12.5

11.5

10.8

10.7

Working population 15–64

69.1

67.4

69.7

68.1

63.8

60.8

58.5

56.4

52.5

Older adults 65+ population

7.0

9.1

12.1

17.4

23.0

26.6

30.0

32.8

36.8

Old-Olds 75+ population

2.1

3.1

4.8

7.1

11.1

12.8

17.8

19.6

21.4

Osaka Prefecture

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

24.4

17.3

14.2

13.3

12.5

11.1

10.5

10.5

Working population 15–64

68.3

73.0

70.8

64.4

61.3

60.4

57.9

53.3

Older adults 65+ population

7.2

9.7

15.0

22.4

26.2

28.5

31.6

36.2

2.3

3.8

5.6

9.5

11.8

17.7

18.1

20.6

Old-Olds 75+ population Osaka-shi

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

20.5

15.2

12.6

11.7

11.0

10.2

9.7

9.6

Working population 15–64

70.3

73.1

70.2

65.7

63.7

63.5

61.3

57.0

Older adults 65+ population

9.2

11.8

17.1

22.7

25.3

26.3

29.0

33.4

Old-Olds 75+ population

2.9

4.6

6.5

10.3

12.0

16.1

16.1

18.5

Tajiri-cho

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

23.5

15.4

13.7

16.9

14.8

12.9

11.5

10.9

Working population 15–64

67.8

71.8

67.3

61.6

62.1

63.9

65.4

59.7

Older adults 65+ population

8.7

12.8

19.0

21.5

23.1

23.1

25.2

29.4

Old-Olds 75+ population

2.8

5.0

7.3

9.9

11.3

14.5

14.4

16.1

Nose-cho

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

21.5

19.0

17.6

10.2

8.0

5.3

3.8

3.1

Working population 15–64

63.9

63.3

63.4

62.4

57.2

45.6

34.9

28.4

Older adults 65+ population

14.6

17.8

19.0

27.3

34.8

49.1

61.3

68.5

5.6

7.7

8.5

13.9

14.0

27.5

38.9

48.8

Old-Olds 75+ population

Sources For 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2015 National Census; for 2025, 2035, and 2045 IPSSR (2018b). The table is compiled and constructed by the author

after 2025 (projected to be 55.0% in 2030), placing it in the marginal settlement category. Based on these findings of population changes by age group in Osaka Prefecture, we can see that the old-old population will continue to increase substantially from 2010 on. Furthermore, Osaka Prefecture will move on to the fertility-declining and population-aging society rapidly from now on.

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5.3.5 Municipal Power of Tajiri-cho The population increase rate of Tajiri-cho is quite high not only in Osaka but also among all the municipalities in Japan. In fact, the social population growth on the radar chart for Tajiri-cho ranks as high as the 5th of all the municipalities in Japan (Osaka Prefecture 2016). The population of Tajiri-cho today is less than 10,000 (2015: 8,417), but it has been increasing ever since 1995 (6,285), and is expected to increase by 2020 (8,527). After that, however, it is expected to decline to 7,741 by the year 2045 (IPSSR 2018b). We wonder why the small town of Tajiri-cho with the population of less than ten thousand achieved such a remarkable population growth in a short period of time. Therefore, it would be worthwhile evaluating the factors which contributed to the population growth of Tajiri-cho. Let us examine Tajiri-cho, its geography, a brief history, population, and municipal power.

5.3.5.1

An Overview of Tajiri-cho

Tajiri-cho is a small town located in the southern part of Osaka Prefecture in the Sennan District with a total area of 4.96 km2 . The town is adjacent to Izumisano-shi to the north and Sennan-shi to the south. The central portion of Kansai International Airport, built on a man-made island, is located 5 km offshore (see Fig. 5.8). Nankai Honsen Line (Nankai Electric Railway) connects Tajiri-cho to the center of Osaka-shi in 40 km, and 40 min to Namba Station; and to Wakayama-shi in 20 km, and 30 min to Wakayama-shi station. Being located at the easternmost end of the Setouchi climate zone, Tajiri-cho enjoys a mild climate throughout the year with little precipitation. Thus, from ancient times the town must bring water from reservoirs for agriculture (Tajiri-cho Town Office 2019). The location and mild climate of Tajiri-cho makes for a comfortable living environment. Consequently, people like to move there. As jori-sei,6 the system of land subdivision in use in the 7th and 8th centuries of the Ritsuryo era, was in use here, the history of Tajiri-cho is believed to be long. The abolition of the han system in 1871 (Meiji 4) resulted in the Yoshimi District being added to Yoshimi Prefecture, and the Kashoji District to Kishiwada Prefecture. However, they were combined to become Sakai Prefecture in the same year, and merged into and placed under the administrative division of Osaka Prefecture in 1881 (Meiji 14). After the merger and the enforcement of the town system the town of Tajiri-cho was brought about in 1953 (Showa 28) (Tajiri-cho Town Office 2019). Owing to the favorable living environment of Tajiri-cho the population increase rate in recent years is remarkable (4.1% in 2015 from 2010), 75th highest of the total 1741 municipalities in Japan. The population in 2015 (8,417), in fact, is 142 (1.7%) more than what was projected by IPSSR (2013). However, the further population projection for Tajiri-cho indicates a declining trend starting sometime around the year 2020 (IPSSR 2018b). Then, we must investigate factors accounting for changes in the trend.

5.3 Osaka Prefecture and Tajiri-cho

5.3.5.2

145

Changes in the Population in Tajiri-cho

According to the census, the population of Tajiri-cho declined from 1960 (8,204) to 1995 (6,285). Since then, however, the population has increased to 8,085 in 2010 and 8417 in 2015, (Tajiri-cho Town Office 2016). The population increase rate for 2015 is 4.11%, and 75th highest of all the 1,741 municipalities. Furthermore, the population is 142 people more (1.7%) than what was projected by IPSSR in 2013 (Tajiri-cho Town Office 2016). According to the most recent report of IPSSR (2018b), however, the population projection for Tajiri-cho will hit its peak sometime around the year 2020 (8,527), and will continue to decline to 7,441 by 2045 (−11.6% decline from 2015). At that time, the average age for Tajiri-cho people would be 46.0 years of age, 3.4 years increase from 42.6 years of age in 2015 (IPSSR 2018b). The life expectancy at birth for Tajiri-cho in 2015 for both males and females is lower than the national average. It is 80.6 years for males (−0.2 of the national average), and 86.7 years for females (−0.3 of the national average) (MHLW 2018). The live birth rate of Tajiri-cho is higher than the national and prefectural average. The average number of live births per year in Tajiri-cho between 2008 and 2012 was 88, or 11.0 live births per every 1,000 population (the national average was 8.4 live births). It ranked 74th highest of all the 1741 municipalities in Japan. In addition, the TFR (total fertility rate) of Tajiri-cho in the same period was 1.56 (the national average was 1.38; Osaka prefectural average is 1.4), ranking 537th of all the municipalities in Japan (Tajiri-cho Town Office 2016). The recent population increase in Tajiri-cho, in fact, has been supported by a social population increase rather than a natural population increase. In fact, the EvaCva radar chart results for Tajiri-cho reveal that the Social Population Growth T-score of 104.88, ranks 5th highest of all the municipalities, and the Natural Population Growth T-score of 55.87, ranks 514th highest of all the municipalities (EvaCva 2018). Based on these population changes and projections for Tajiri-cho, we come to realize some social factors are accounting for them. Let us, therefore, analyze the population changes for Tajiri-cho by age-group.

5.3.5.3

Population Changes of Tajiri-cho by Age Group

In analyzing the population changes of Tajiri-cho by age group, we noticed that in 2015, proportions for both the child (14.8%) and working (62.1%) population are higher than the national average, the prefectural average, and other municipalities in Osaka. On the other hand, its proportion for older adults (23.1%) is lower than others. In other word, the process of fertility decline and population aging in Tajiri-cho has been, and will be, much slower than others (see Table 5.9). When we examine the population of Tajiri-cho, not by proportion, but by the actual number of people in each age-group, a somewhat different outlook could be highlighted. That is, the total number of people is expected to increase by 2020, but the actual number of population increase will be for the working (+218) and

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older adult (+38) population group, but not for the child population (−146). In many municipalities in Japan both the child and the working populations decline, while the older adult population increases. For Tajiri-cho, instead, the working population is projected to increase by 2025 (2015, 5,151 to 2025, 5,503), then starts to decline to 4,444 by 2045. As a consequence, the child and the working populations of Tajiri-cho in 2045 will be higher, and that of the older adult population will be much lower than other municipalities (see Table 5.9). Nevertheless, the progress of fertility decline and aging cannot be avoided in Tajiri-cho although its speed is much slower than other communities in Japan. Thus, it is worthwhile to evaluate municipal power of Tajiri-cho to further enhance its strengths, and to overcome its weakness. Let us, therefore, analyze them via EvaCva radar chart.

5.3.5.4

Radar Chart of Tajiri-cho

Looking at the radar chart for Osaka Prefecture in which Osaka-shi, Tajiri-cho, and Nose-cho are presented, we notice there exist clear differences in municipal power among them. The social population growth of Tajiri-cho ranks 5th of all municipalities; revenue, 10th; and finance, 12th. On the other hand, such indicators as security (1,706th), and child welfare (1,597th) are rated poorly. Consequently, the overall evaluation of Tajiri-cho ranks 13th of all the municipalities in Japan (Fig. 5.10). Although the social population growth of Tajiri-cho is quite high, neither the natural population growth (514th) nor TFR (537th) is high, hence the poor rating for

Fig. 5.10 Osaka Prefecture radar chart: Osaka-shi, Tajiri-cho, Nose-cho. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. https://evacva.net/app/?lang=en&radar_ dataset=default. Accessed 11 July 2018

5.3 Osaka Prefecture and Tajiri-cho

147

child welfare. Then, we come to question the meaning of this radar chart of Tajiricho. It is very likely that there are some socio-economic factors which brought about the inflow of people into the small town of Tajiri-cho in recent years, but did not result in natural population growth. Three major reasons could be pointed out which account for the social population growth of Tajiri-cho. First, the Kansai International Airport, whose central portion is located in Tajiri-cho, opened in 1994. Second, the Osaka Prefectural Police Academy with dormitories opened in Tajiri-cho in April 2013. Third, land development for housing has been planned between 2015 and 2025 on the land where Osaka prefectural housing moved out (Tajiri-cho Town Office 2017). These factors contribute to the projected population increase of Tajiri-cho up to sometime around the year 2020 (8,687). Then, it is projected to decline to 7,441 by 2045 (IPSSR 2018b).

5.3.5.5

Municipal Power and Resources in Tajiri-cho

Should the projected population increase hit its peak, then quickly decline, what measures must be taken to maintain its population growth? The first step would be that residents of Tajiri-cho understand its municipal power, both positive and negative, then to express them to municipal authorities. Voices of the people concerned about the future of their town are expressed in a survey conducted by the Tajiri-cho Town Office. The majority of people (68%) want to remain in the town. Reasons for their liking the town are as follows: its compactness (35.3%), a sea view (22.5%), nearby Kansai International Airport (16.3%), fishing ports (9.3%), and the danjiri7 festival (7.4%) (Tajiri-cho Town Office 2016). When the residents of Tajiri-cho are asked what they wish for the future of the town, they responded as follows: extend good welfare programs for all age groups to live safely (50.2%), provide good residential areas with comfortable living environments (21.2%) organize educational and cultural programs with well-thought-out school environments and life-long learning opportunities (12.5%); and create a lively community with local industries such as agriculture and fishing (5.5%) (Tajiri-cho Town Office 2016). These responses truly reflect the positive and negative aspects of municipal power for Tajiri-cho today. Thus, it is urgently requested that the town administration weigh the negative/deficient aspects of municipal power so that the population of Tajiri-cho could be maintained, or increased. Five possible measures could be suggested. First, younger adults should be encouraged to move into and stay in Tajiri-cho. Although the social population growth has been high in recent years, the rate to move out is also high for this age group. Thus, measures must be developed for them to want to stay in the town. Second, it is suggested that Tajiri-cho should offer health care programs to meet the needs of people in the town. Otherwise, dissatisfied people will move out sooner or later. Third, generate surroundings in which women can raise children while working. More specifically, some tax incentive plans for working mothers with preschool children need to be developed, to provide support programs for generational families, and/or encourage parents to live near their daughters who are working mothers.

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Fourth, Tajiri-cho administration must be concerned about developing the town to take advantage of its compactness. Then the town of Tajiri-cho would become a so-called comfortable “compact city.” Finally, Tajiri-cho needs to become a livelier community by taking into consideration the positive aspects of its municipal power. We surely know that it is not an easy task to confront these tasks. If and only if we are willing to do so would the population growth of Tajiri-cho in the year 2045 be realized. If not a population increase, it is possible for Tajiri-cho to slow down its population decline. To conclude the section on Osaka Prefecture, it is interesting to note that none of the districts in the prefecture has been affected in their demographic characteristics in any significant manner by their original provincial differences of Settsu, Kawachi, and Izumi Provinces of the Goki-Shichido. It is, perhaps, as we noted earlier, the historical ruling of Toyotomi Hideyoshi that took precedence over anything else. In the next chapter we will discuss municipalities in Eastern Japan which developed some unique programs for regional revitalization despite suffering from acute population decline at the prefectural level. We will analyze cases from Aomori and Yamagata prefectures in the Tosando. Notes 1. When the abolition of feudal domain and establishment of prefectures (Haihan Chiken) was enforced in 1871 the Satsuma Domain became Kagoshima Prefecture. At that time, the kingdom of Ryukyu was released from the control of Kagoshima Prefecture and Ryukyu Domain was established in 1872 under the supervision of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Meiji Government. Five years later, then, Okinawa Prefecture was established in 1897. This entire process of the forced assimilation of the Ryukyu kingdom and Okinawa Prefecture into Japan is called the Ryukyu Shobun (Disposition of Ryukyu), ending its tributary relations with China and abolishing the Ryukyu Kingdom (1872–1879) (Akira 2007). 2. Shuri Castle: the three-story Seiden, the main castle building, once served as the heart of political and religious life of the ancient Ryukyu kingdom. Stone walls and the stairs leading to the Seiden date back to the kingdom, formed in the 15th century. The Chinese-architecture-influenced castle and other strongholds dotting Okinawa were designated World Heritage sites by UNESCO in 2000. Japan’s Agency for Cultural Affairs has sent a four-member team to Shuri to evaluate the damage. The castle, part of which appears on the 2,000 yen ($18) bill, was once destroyed during the Battle of Okinawa in 1945. Pushed by Okinawa residents, the central government decided in 1986 to restore the castle to its 18th-century glory. Researchers combed over the remains and consulted prewar photos along with historic refurbishment records and testimony from locals. Construction work officially began in 1989, recruiting temple carpenters and lacquerware artisans. Reconstruction on the Seiden and other buildings wrapped up in 1992, just in time for the 20th anniversary of Okinawa’s return to Japan.

5.3 Osaka Prefecture and Tajiri-cho

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

149

Restoration work continued until this past January 2019 (Nikkei Asian Review 2019). The section is written based on the following references: Nakagusuku Nakagusuku Kyodo Kanri Kyogikai 2018; Nakagusuku-jo site 2018; Nakagusuku Village Office 2013; Tabirai 2018. Tameike is a human-made pond for rice paddy fields. The oldest tameike in Japan is said to be Sayama-ike in Osaka Prefecture which was believed to be made sometime at the beginning of the 7th century. There are 5,270 tameikes in Fukuoka Prefecture, the largest number of all the seven prefectures in Kyushu. Each contains about 100 million tons of water. The reason for the many tameike in the northern part of Fukuoka Prefecture is that there are not enough large rivers in the region, and lack water for agriculture (Fukuoka kencho 2018). The area in the middle of the map is where the city of Sakai is located, It is left blank as there is no data for it. Sakai-shi became Seirei Shitei Toshi (a city that government designated by ordinance) in 2006 with seven wards. However, in the G-Census 2010 data they were not reflected on. Thus, the population increase rates for the area are left blank. The name of Sakai comes from its meaning in Japanese “boarders” of three provinces, namely Settsu Province, Izumi Province, and Kawachi Province. For this reason, the city emblem of Sakai was designated as the Japanese character of three “shi” being put together in June 1895 (Meiji 28) (Sakai City Office 2013). Jori-sei is the system of land division in use in the 7th and 8th centuries in Japan. Under the Taika Reform of 645, tracts of land were divided into squares measuring 6 cho to a side (1 cho is equal to 109 m). Counting from north to south, these units were designated jo 1, jo 2, etc., from east to west, the same units were called ri 1, ri 2, etc. Each of these units was further divided into 36 equal and numbered squares, called tsubo, each having an area of 1 square cho. Thus, it was possible to indicate any parcel of land by specifying in which tsubo, ri, jo, gun (district) and kuni (province) it lay. The field divisions were demarcated by foot paths and irrigation dICThes (Kodansha 1983). Danjiri appear mainly in festivals of western Japan, and are roughly categorized into two types, ‘hiki-danjiri’ (a decorative float towed by festival participants) and ‘katsugi-danjiri’ (a decorative float shouldered by festival participants). It is believed that the danjiri festival of Kishiwada held in 1703 (Genroku 16) under the ruling of the then Kishiwada feudal lord Okabe Nagayasu, is the origin of all its present variations. He built a Shinto temple to pray for a rich harvest, and he permitted town folk to come into the precincts of the Castle of Kishiwada, pulling danjiri. The danjiri festival is well-known as the most dangerous festival in Japan. However, it truly attracts and enthuses the participants who are residents in the community (Ueda 2006; Osaka Convention & Tourism Bureau 2019).

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Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018c). Shi-kucho-son wo shiraberu [Updates of the total number of municipalities in Japan by prefecture as of December 27]. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/municipalities/number-of-municipalities?year= 2018&month=12&day=27&file_format=csv&sort_key=tokubetuCnt&sort_order=asc&form_b uild_id=form-6JOQwzbSdYOd4MCupaTkx9yCT3p0rIWlWea0H5gBR-g&form_id=city_c ount_form. Accessed 27 Dec. Tabirai. (2018). Nakagusuku-son tanpo: Rekishi to bunka ga nokoru machi [Visit Nakagusuku-son where history and culture are persistent] in Okinawa. http://www.tabirai.net/sightseeing/tatsujin/ 0000394.aspx. Accessed 24 Dec 2018. Tajiri-cho Town Office. (2016). Tajiri-cho Jinko Bijyon [Population Policies for Tajiri-cho]. Published in March. http://www.town.tajiri.osaka.jp/ikkrwebBrowse/material/files/group/4/jin kobijon.pdf. Accessed 27 Jan 2019. Tajiri-cho Town Office. (2017). Tajiri-cho toshikeikaku masutaa pulannn [The plan for the urban development of Tajiri-cho] March. http://www.town.tajiri.osaka.jp/ikkrwebBrowse/mat erial/files/group/14/toshikeikakuMP.pdf. Accessed 29 Jan 2019. Tajiri-cho Town Office. (2019). Kanko-Machi no gaiyo-Rekishi chisei [An overview of Tajiri-cho, its area and history]. http://www.town.tajiri.osaka.jp/kanko/gaiyou/1292561393665.html. Accessed 26 Jan 2019. Takemitsu, M. (2001). Kennminsei no Nihon Chizu [Characteristics of Japan by prefecture]. Tokyo: Bungei Shunjyu. Tamaki, T. (1997). Dento to Henkaku no Hazamade Yureru Okinawa-ken no Kazoku [Changing families in Okinawa under tradition and modernization]. In Nihon no Kazoku to Chiikisei Gekan [Japanese family structure and regional variations]. Vol. 2 of Nishi Nihon no Kazoku to Chuushintoshite [Special emphasis on western Japan], ed. Fumie Kumagai, 189–210. Kyoto, Japan: Minerva Shobo. Tanaka, M. (1986). Okinawa no Kazoku [Families in Okinawa]. In Hiroko Hara (Ed.), Kazoku no Bunka Shi [Cultural history of the family]. Tokyo: Kobundo. Ueda, K. (2006). Danjiri festival. http://www2.sensyu.ne.jp/uedaka/Festival.htm. Accessed 31 Jan 2019. Yawata, K. (2009). 47 To-do-fu-ken Unchiku Jiten [Encyclopedia of 47 prefectures in Japan]. Tokyo: PHP. Zamami-son Municipal Office. (2015). Zamami-son kosodate pulann [Suggestions for assisting for child planning in Zamami-son]. http://www.vill.zamami.okinawa.jp/news/%E5%BA%A7% E9%96%93%E5%91%B3%E6%9D%91%E5%AD%90%E3%81%A9%E3%82%82%E3% 83%BB%E5%AD%90%E8%82%B2%E3%81%A6%E6%94%AF%E6%8F%B4%E4%BA% 8B%E6%A5%AD%E8%A8%88%E7%94%BB.pdf. Accessed 18 Dec 2018.

Chapter 6

Successful Municipal Revitalization in Devastated Communities in Eastern Japan: Some Examples from Aomori and Yamagata Prefectures in the Tosando

Abstract Four prefectures in northeastern Japan, namely Akita, Aomori, Iwate, and Yamagata in Mutsu and Dewa Provinces of the Tosando, are among the prefectures with the most severely projected population losses. Are there some common socio-cultural characteristics prevailing throughout these regions? We examined most closely the municipal power of Aomori and Yamagata Prefectures. It is widely acknowledged that the socio-cultural characteristics and municipal power in Aomori Prefecture are clearly divided into two, i.e., Tsugaru on the west and Nanbu on the east. In studying the municipal power of Aomori Prefecture we compared and contrasted these two regions. Among all the 40 municipalities in Aomori Prefecture today, Nishimeya-mura is noted for its success in attracting visitors through its eco-tourism and dam tourism, its scenic dams. We examined the municipal power of Nishimeya-mura including such aspects as marriage power, household type, and population-sustaining power. Nishimeya-mura is truly enriched with municipal power from natural and infrastructure resources such as the Shirakami-Sanchi World Heritage site and the Tsugaru Dam which no other municipality in Japan, or even in the world, possesses. Nishimeya-mura should be proud of its enriched municipal power, and make the best use of them for its revitalization. Although the residential population is unlikely to increase, tourists could become not only a source of substantial revenue, but also bring liveliness to the village, especially of young people not previously attracted to the region. However, to get the attention of the younger generations it is important that effective advertising be implemented by way of modern ICT technologies. Another prefecture that we examined closely is Yamagata, divided into four regions, namely, Shonai, Mogami, Murayama, and Okitama. There exist distinctive socio-cultural characteristics in each of these four regions. Therefore, we studied municipal power such as marriage power, household type, and population-sustaining power of these regions and municipalities. Then, we investigated the municipal power of Higashine-shi of the Murayama Region for its success in increasing its population, noted not only in Yamagata Prefecture, but also throughout Japan. Pioneering projects initiated by Higashine-shi such as Sakuranbo Tantokuru Center, Higashine Asobia Land, and Manabia Terrace definitely facilitated a social population increase in the city. In fact, the increase in social population in the 2010 national census from the previous one was 1.09%, and that of 2015 was 3.47% (Higashine City 2019). Municipalities throughout Japan are keenly interested © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 F. Kumagai, Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4234-3_6

153

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in the policies implemented here, and facilities constructed in Higashine-shi. Thus, many municipal officials and council members visit the city to emulate and reflect on their own population problems (Fujisawa City Council 2017). For both Aomori (Mutsu Province) and Yamagata (Dewa Province) Prefectures in the Tosando of today’s Tohoku region, the impact of the bakuhan (shogunate and domain) system operated stronger than that of the Goki-Shichido in forming today’s municipal power. Under the influence of the bakuhan system clear differences between Tsugaru and Nanbu in Aomori Prefecture emerged. Similarly, the bakuhan system brought about differences among the Shonai, Mogami, Murayama, and Okitama Regions which have been adapted to administrative divisions in Yamagata Prefecture today.

6.1 Tohoku Region of Mutsu and Dewa Provinces in the Tosando As we have witnessed earlier in this book (Chap. 3), prefectures which most seriously suffer from population decline are located in the Tohoku Region, sometimes called Ou region. The region encompassing the entire northern end of Honshu island, consisting of six prefectures, namely Aomori, Iwate, Akita, Yamagata, Miyagi, and Fukushima Prefectures. In Goki-Shichido, under the Ritsuryo system, this region belonged to the Tosando Circuit, and was called Michinoku Province (645). Michinoku refers to remote areas from the center of Japan, and it was changed to Mutsu (outback land in Japanese characters) Province. Subsequently, Dewa Province was established (712). Thus, adding these two provinces, the region sometime was called Ou (two Japanese characters signifying outback and a feather, respectively). It was only after the Meiji era when the region started to be called Tohoku (Shogakukan 2019). Of all the six prefectures in the Tohoku Region, Aomori, Iwate, Miyagi, and Fukushima Prefectures fell under Mutsu Province, while Akita and Yamagata Prefectures were under Dewa Province. The Great East Japan Earthquake of March 11, 2011, which is called a triple disaster, hit most severely and devastingly in the Tohoku Region, especially in Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures. The earthquake was followed by a great tsunami which flooded the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear electric plant, knocking out all backup power to the plant and washing radioactive isotopes into the sea. In this chapter, of the six prefectures in the Tohoku Region in Tosando we will study closely Aomori and Yamagata Prefectures. Furthermore, in each prefecture we will discuss municipalities which developed some unique programs for regional revitalization despite suffering from acute population decline at the prefectural level. They are Nishimeya-mura in Aomori Prefecture, and Higashine-shi in Yamagata Prefecture.

6.2 Jomon Culture and the Tohoku Region

155

6.2 Jomon Culture and the Tohoku Region The Jomon period began approximately 13,000 years B.C., and the prehistoric Jomon culture flourished for approximately 10,000 years until the beginning of the Yayoi period, when full-scale rice cultivation began on the Japanese archipelago approximately 2,300 years ago. The Jomon culture continued for a very long period. It was not a stagnant or immature society, but a mature society with superior technology and rich spiritual elements, having reached the ultimate development of a hunting and gathering culture. Since Jomon people are the direct ancestors of contemporary Japanese people, it is no exaggeration to say that the contemporary life of the Japanese people is an extension of Jomon culture (Jomon Japan 2019). Although the Jomon culture penetrated widely throughout Japan, and became a foundation of Japanese culture, it also varied from place to place, and was most prosperous in the Tohoku Region (Amino 1982; Takemitsu 2001). Due to life based on hunting and gathering in natural surroundings the people of the Jomon era lived on the basis of equality. However, Yayoi culture was brought into western Japan at the beginning of the second century B.C. from the Korean peninsula, and a rice cultivation culture was introduced into Japan. Yayoi culture as opposed to Jomon culture showed respect for the master-follower relationship, approving of the rich and the poor differences. This principal is based on the rice cultivation culture led by the land holder, and established the status system of Japanese agricultural society (Takemitsu 2001). Consequently, the basis for the stem family system in agricultural society in the Tohoku Region was formed. The stem family consists of a married couple, one of the couple’s children selected to carry on the family lineage, that child’s spouse, and their children. It continues the family lineage across generations (Kumagai 2019).

6.3 Aomori Prefecture and Nishimeya-mura 6.3.1 Profile of Aomori Prefecture: Tsugaru and Nanbu District Aomori Prefecture is located at the northern-most point of the Japanese main island of Honshu. It is bounded on the north by Tsugaru Strait, on the east by the Pacific Ocean, on the south by Iwate and Akita Prefectures, and on the west by the Sea of Japan. It is roughly located at the same latitude as New York City, Beijing, Rome, and Madrid (Aomori Prefectural Government 2008). The western and central portions of Aomori Prefecture are dominated by the Dewa and Ou mountains, while the eastern area is relatively level, with some hills at the foot of the Ou Mountains. Aomori Prefecture is surrounded by the sea on three sides, and the Ou Mountain Range, located in the center of the prefecture, runs from Mutsu Bay at the northern tip of Aomori Prefecture down through the Tohoku

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Region, dividing the prefecture into two distinctively different regions. These regions are Tsugaru on the west, and Nanbu on the east of Aomori Prefecture (Aomori Prefectural Government 2008). These two different regions create a topography of complicated land and marine features, resulting in a climate that can vary widely within the prefecture. A good example of these differences can be seen in the heavy snowfall in the Tsugaru Region during winter. On the other hand, it brings down the “Yamase” (cold humid wind descending from the easterly mountains in the summer) that primarily develop around the Pacific Ocean side of the prefecture. In typical winter conditions, cold humid air collides with the Ou Mountain Range, causing snowfall in the Tsugaru Region, while the area along the Pacific Ocean side of the prefecture is shut off from this air due to the Ou Mountain Range, creating many sunny and dry days in these areas. In the summer, the cool humid “Yamase” creates many days of low temperature and high humidity along the Pacific Ocean side (Aomori Prefectural Government 2008).

6.3.2 A Brief History of Aomori Prefecture We come to the question, then, how the distinctively different cultures of Tsugaru and Nanbu Regions in Aomori Prefecture emerged. It is all based on history. The name Aomori (literally means blue forest) dates back in 1624 (Kanei 1) in the early period of the Edo era when the Hirosaki clan started to build a port town, Tosa Minato, in today’s city of Aomori. The name was written in two Chinese characters, aoi (in blue color) and mori (a forest). At that time, there was a “forest in blue color” in the central area, and it was a crucial landmark for a ship entering the port. Hence the Hirosaki clan named the place Aomori (Aomori Prefectural Government 2012a, b). Prior to the Nara period in the Tohoku Region there existed a different culture from that of the Yamato Imperial Court, located in the western region. The culture of the Tohoku Region at that time inherited the Jomon culture in which hunting and gathering were the major source of subsistence. Even after the introduction of Yayoi culture which brought farming to the region, the people in the Tohoku Region continued to worship gods of the mountains and wild fields stemming from the Jomon culture. The imperial court called the people in the Tohoku Region at that time Emishi (meaning non-Yamato people in northern Japan). With the coming of the Nara era (710–794) the Tohoku Region was gradually put under the control of the central government. However, most of today’s Aomori Prefecture remained independent of the central government even during the Heian period (794–1185) (Takemitsu 2009). By the coming of the Kamakura Shogunate (1185–1333) independent Emishi clans came under the rule of the shogunate. In the Tsugaru Region the powerful Ando clan was assigned to the Ezo Kanrei, a shogunal deputy of the Tohoku Region. Under the rule of the Ando clan, which was pretty much independent of the Kamakura shogunate, the people in the Tsugaru Region fostered and developed open-minded, challenging, and adventurous propensities. During the Muromachi era (1336–1493) the Ando clan was gradually taken over by the easterly clans who moved to the

6.3 Aomori Prefecture and Nishimeya-mura

157

Nanbu Region from the Kanto region. The Kanto bushi spirit respects loyalty to the lord, a sharp contradiction to the free spirit of the Tsugaru people. This was the major reason for the emergence of animosity between the Tsugaru and the Nanbu people. In the Sengoku era (1493–1573) the Tsugaru clan, however, became independent of Nanbu rule. Then, during the Edo period, the present-day Aomori Prefecture was divided into two, i.e., the western part of Tsugaru, and the eastern part of Nanbu. Nevertheless, we must remember that the Nanbu family during the Edo era controlled the eastern part of today’s Aomori as well as Iwate Prefectures, and became the Morioka Han Dynasty. As Morioka was distant from the eastern part of Aomori Prefecture, the personality of the Nanbu people in Aomori resembled much closer the Tsugaru people than their Nanbu counterpart in Morioka region. At the time of the abolition of feudal domains and establishment of prefectures in the Meiji era in 1871 (Meiji 4) the Tsugaru and the Nanbu were merged into Hirosaki Prefecture in July, and renamed Aomori Prefecture in September of the same year (Aomori Prefectural Government 2012a, b; Takemitsu 2009). From a quick observation of the history of Aomori Prefecture it is clear that today’s Aomori Prefecture is a combination of two distinctively different regions, the western Tsugaru, and the eastern Nanbu. Therefore, as far as Aomori Prefecture is concerned, it would be more appropriate to examine its population and regional variations based on these regional differences, rather than on the basis of the Goki Shichido theoretical framework. For this reason, examinations and discussion on the population in Aomori Prefecture will be based on the Tsugaru versus Nanbu Regional dichotomies.

6.3.3 Municipalities in Aomori Prefecture by District and Region Based on the historical development of Aomori Prefecture, we learned that the prefecture today is distinctively divided into two, i.e., the Tsugaru Region on the west and the Nanbu Region on the east. Thus, it would be worthwhile to examine if these contentions are scientifically validated by the population-related indices. Furthermore, the Tsugaru Region is divided into three districts, Tousei, Chunan and Seihoku, while. the Nanbu Region is divided into three districts, namely Shimokita, Kamikita, and Sanpachi (Aomori Prefectural Government 2011, see Fig. 6.1). Of the 40 municipalities in Aomori Prefecture today (10 cities, 22 towns, and 8 villages, see Fig. 6.1), the district and municipalities belonging to each are shown below. (For the location of each municipality, refer to Fig. 6.1.) Tsugaru Region (19 municipalities). Tousei District (Northern central part-5 municipalities): Aomori-shi, Hiranai-cho, Imabetsu-machi, Yomogita-mura, and Sotogahama-machi.

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Tsugaru Region (19 municipalities) Tousei District: 1. Aomori-shi, 2. Hiranai-cho, 3. Imabetsu-machi, 4. Yomogita-mura and 5. Sotogahama-machi. Chuunan District: 6. Hirosaki-shi, 7. Kuroishi-shi, 8. Hirakawa-shi, 9. Nishimeya-mura, 10. Fujisaki-machi, 11. Oowani-machi, and 12. Inakadate-mura Seihoku

District:

13.

Goshogawara-shi,

14.

Tsugaru-shi,

15.

Ajigasawa-mcchi,

16.

Fukaura-machi, 17. Itayanagi-machi, 18. Tsuruta-machi, and 19. Nakadomari-machi. Nanbu Region (21 municipalities) Shimokita District: 20. Mutsu-shi, 21. Ooma-machi, 22. Higashidori-mura, 23. Kazamaura-mura, and 24. Sai-mura Kamikita District: 25. Towada-shi, 26. Misawa-shi, 27. Noheji-machi, 28. Shichinohe-machi, 29. Rokunohe-machi, 30. Yokohama-machi, 31. Tohoku-machi, 32. Rokkasho-mura, and 33. Oisare-cho. Sanpachi District: 34. Hachinohe-shi, 35. Sannnohe-machi, 36. Gonohe-machi, 37. Takko-machi, 38. Nanbu-machi, 39. Hashikami-machi, and 40. Shingo-mura.

Fig. 6.1 Map of Aomori Prefecture by municipality (10 cities, 22 towns, and 8 villages = Total of 40 municipalities). Source GIS free color map, https://n.freemap.jp/st/list.html, and https://n.fre emap.jp/tp/Aomori. Accessed 9 Mar 2020. The map is drawn by the author. Note Numbers on the map correspond to those found for the name of each municipality listed under each region

6.3 Aomori Prefecture and Nishimeya-mura

159

Chuunan District (Southern central part-7 municipalities): Hirosaki-shi, Kuroishishi, Hirakawa-shi, Nishimeya-mura, Fujisaki-machi, Oowani-machi, and Inakadatemura. Seihoku District (Western part-7 municipalities): Goshogawara-shi, Tsugarushi, Ajigasawa-machi, Fukaura-machi, Itayanagi-machi, Tsuruta-machi, and Nakadomari-machi. Nanbu Region (21 municipalities). Shimokita District (Northeastern part-5 municipalities): Mutsu-shi, Ooma-machi, Higashidori-mura, Kazamaura-mura, and Sai-mura. Kamikita District (Eastern central part-9 municipalities): Towada-shi, Misawashi, Noheji-machi, Shichinohe-machi, Rokunohe-machi, Yokohama-machi, Tohokumachi, Rokkasho-mura, and Oisare-cho. Sanpachi District (Southeastern part-7 municipalities): Hachinohe-shi, Sannnohemachi, Gonohe-machi, Takko-machi, Nanbu-machi, Hashikami-machi, and Shingomura.

6.3.4 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power of Aomori Prefecture: Tsugaru and Nanbu Regions 6.3.4.1

Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power of Aomori Prefecture by Region and District

The municipal power of household type, marriage power, population-sustaining power, and projected population increase rates from 2015 to 2045 of Aomori Prefecture are compared and contrasted by region and district (see Table 6.1). Looking at the generational family household in 2015, we notice that the average rate for Aomori Prefecture (28.96%) is much higher than the Japan average (13.29%), and that of Nishimeya-mura (38.14%) of Chunan District in the Tsugaru Region is outstandingly high. In fact, the average rate for the Tsugaru Region on this index is 31.42% (Tousei District average, 25.23%; Chunan District average, 35.31%; and Seihoku District average, 31.94%). High rates for the generational family household in the Tsugaru Region, especially of the southern central part of the Tsugaru Region (Chunan District, for example, Inakadate-mura, 43.91%; Nishimeya-mura, 38.14%; Oowani-machi, 37.81%; and Hirakawa-shi, 37.78%) is taken as evidence of the strong influence of the Tsugaru clan during the Edo shogunate, and the Jomon culture which flourished in the northeastern region of Japan. On the other hand, the generational family household proportions in the Nanbu Region in Aomori Prefecture today are significantly lower than their Tsugaru Region

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Table 6.1 Municipal power of Aomori Prefecture: Tsugaru, Nanbu, Oirase-cho, Nishimeya-mura, and Imabetsu-machi Municipality

Generational family household 2015 (%)a

Marriage power 2013 (‰)b

Population-sustaining power 2013 (%)b

Japan average

13.29

5.30

−0.19

−6.3

Aomori Prefecture average

28.96

2.16 (3.45)

−1.02

−37.0

Tsugaru Region (19)

31.42

3.11

−1.72

−51.1

Tousei District (5)

25.23

2.41

−2.28

−56.0

Chunan District (7)

35.31

3.83

−1.33

−43.8

Seihoku District (7)

31.94

2.90

−1.73

−54.8

26.73

4.53

−1.47

−39.1

Shimokita District (5) 17.31

4.38

−2.14

−50.3

Kamikita District (9)

22.41

4.46

−1.00

−34.2

Sanpachi District (7)

30.46

4.98

−1.59

−46.3

−0.04

−16.3

Nanbu Region (21)

No data

Projected population increase rates 2015–2045 (%)c

Oirase-cho (Nanbu-Kamikita)

22.36

Nishimeya-mura (Tsugaru-Chunan)

38.14

4.03

−2.11

−56.8

Imabetsu-machi (Tsugaru-Tousei)

19.81

0.97

−3.18

−71.0

Sources a Statistics Bureau, MIAC (2018a, b) b MIAC (2014) c IPSSR (2018). The table is compiled and constructed by the author

counterparts (see Table 6.1). The average rate in the Nanbu Region for its total 21 municipalities is 26.73%, but variations by district within the Nanbu Region should be noted (Shimokita District, ranging from the high of Higashidori-mura, 29.74%; to the low of Mutsu-shi, 16.96%; that of Kamikita District, ranging from the high of 34.19% in Tohoku-machi to the low of 16.96% in Mutsu-shi; and that of Sanpachi District ranging from a high of 46.27% in Shingo-mura to the low of 17.10% in Hachinohe-shi). Among the municipalities in the Nanbu Region, those located in the Sanpachi District, southeastern part of Aomori Prefecture, score high, where the mixture of Nanbu in Aomori and Iwate culture might have been generated. Thus, as we have discussed earlier, the cultural orientation of the Nanbu people in Aomori appears to be much closer to the Tsugaru people than their Nanbu counterpart in Morioka region in Iwate Prefecture. The municipal power of marriage power,1 population-sustaining power, and projected population increase rates for municipalities in Aomori Prefecture by region were also examined. Here again, we notice there exist clear regional differences in

6.3 Aomori Prefecture and Nishimeya-mura

161

these indices between the Tsugaru and the Nanbu Regions. In the Tsugaru Region marriage power, and population sustaining power in 2013 were much weaker than those of their Nanbu counterparts, hence the projected population increase rates for 2045 is expected to be far more serious than those of the Nanbu Region (see Table 6.1). Thus, we can say that regional variations in marriage power strongly reflect the Tsugaru vs. Nanbu Regional differences in Aomori Prefecture. The impact of marriage power (X) on the population-sustaining power (Y) for 40 municipalities in Aomori Prefecture is highly significant (Y = –3.110 + 0.442X, adjusted R2 = 0.362, P = 0.000). The marriage power of Nagakute-shi, however, is outstandingly strong, as is its population-sustaining power, with a projected population increase rate in 2045 that is nearly one-quarter more than its 2015 national census population. We should note that the marriage power of Imabetsu-machi in Tousei District in the Tsugaru Region is quite small, hence its population-sustaining power becomes negative, as does its projected population increase rate in 2045. We can imagine that Imabetsu-machi in 2045 will become a marginal settlement with the older adult population well over one-half of the total population (see Table 6.2 presented in the following section). These results of municipal power for Aomori Prefecture suggest that we should analyze closely factors contributing to the projected population increase in 2045 of each municipality separately, but not Aomori Prefecture as a whole.

6.3.4.2

Population Changes by Age Group of Aomori Prefecture, Oirase-cho, Nishimeya-mura, and Imabetsu-machi

The total population of Aomori Prefecture has been on the decline ever since the 1985 national census (1,524,448 people) compared to 2015 (1.308,649 people, a loss of 64,690 (−4.7%) people from the previous national census). Among all the 47 prefectures in Japan, the population decrease rate for the most recent five years (−4.7%) is third highest, next to Akita and Fukushima prefectures. Based on the 2015 national census, the projected population for Aomori Prefecture in 2045 would be 824,000, (−37.0% from the population in 2015, a decrease rate that is second highest after Akita Prefecture). In 2045 the average age of the people in Aomori Prefecture would become 57.2 years of age, an 8.2-year increase from that of 2015 (IPSSR 2018). Fertility decline and population aging in Aomori Prefecture will be accelerated further than ever before. By 2025 the proportion of child population will be below 10%, and by the year 2035 the population of older adults 65 and over will exceed 40%, and old-olds 75 and over will be more than a quarter of the entire population in Aomori Prefecture (see Table 6.2). Projections for population increase rates by municipality in 2040 in Aomori Prefecture are presented by way of the GPS G-Census geographic tool. It is clear that population decline would be accelerated throughout Aomori Prefecture regardless of regions or districts. We notice, however, a few municipalities are marked relatively in dark. They are Nishimeya-mura of Chunan District in the Tsugaru Region, Ooma-machi of Shimokita District in the Nanbu Region, and Oirase-cho of Kamikita District in the Nanbu Region (see Fig. 6.2).

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Table 6.2 Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Aomori Prefecture, Oirase-cho, Nishimeya-mura, Imabetsu-machi Japan

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

23.9

23.5

18.2

14.6

13.2

12.5

11.5

10.8

10.7

Working population 15–64

69.1

67.4

69.7

68.1

63.8

60.8

58.5

56.4

52.5

Older adults 65+ population

7.0

9.1

12.1

17.4

23.0

26.6

30.0

32.8

36.8

Old-olds 75+ population

2.1

3.1

4.8

7.1

11.1

12.8

17.8

19.6

21.4

Aomori Prefecture

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

24.0

19.5

15.1

12.6

11.4

9.9

8.8

8.2

Working population 15–64

67.1

67.5

65.4

61.7

58.4

53.4

49.8

45.0

Older adults 65+ population

8.8

12.9

19.5

25.8

30.1

36.7

41.4

46.8

2.9

5.0

7.6

13.1

15.4

20.8

25.9

29.1

Old-olds 75+ population Oirase-cho

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

25.0

20.6

18.1

15.8

14.2

12.2

11.1

10.5

Working population 15–64

66.2

66.4

65.7

63.3

61.0

56.5

53.4

49.1

Older adults 65+ population

8.8

13.0

16.3

20.9

24.8

31.3

35.4

40.4

Old-olds 75+ population

2.6

4.9

6.5

10.2

11.9

16.6

21.3

24.0

Nishimeya-mura

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

18.3

14.2

11.7

9.1

9.1

8.9

7.0

6.2

Working population 15–64

68.6

67.6

55.2

56.7

53.0

50.6

47.5

44.4

Older adults 65+ population

13.0

18.2

33.1

34.1

37.9

40.4

45.5

49.4

4.6

7.2

12.1

21.3

23.2

24.1

27.2

31.8

Old-olds 75+ population Imabetsu-machi

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

23.0

20.2

11.3

6.5

5.0

3.7

2.8

2.3

Working population 15–64

66.2

59.8

56.5

49.4

44.4

33.8

29.7

24.9

Older adults 65+ population

10.8

20.0

32.3

44.1

50.5

62.4

67.5

72.8

4.3

8.0

13.2

25.2

29.5

37.9

49.6

52.0

Old-olds 75+ population

Sources For 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2015 National Census; for 2025, 2035, and 2045 IPSSR 2018. The table is compiled and consructed by the author

We are somewhat puzzled with the population increase rate for Nishimeya-mura as we observed that it is projected to be −56.8% in 2045 from the 2015 national census (see Table 6.1). As G-Census GIS projection is based on the 2010 census population, we speculate that there might be some particular reasons accounting for the situation in Nishimeya-mura for its population between the years 2010–2015. For example, the population increase might have been brought into Nishimeya-mura because of the increase in people not residing there permanently. We will investigate this matter in detail later in this chapter. Furthermore, although it is difficult to identify in the G-Census figure presented here, the municipality in which the population decline rates is most acute in 2040,

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Fig. 6.2 Projections for population increase rates by municipality in 2040 against 2010: Aomori Prefecture. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020

in Aomori Prefecture, is Imabetsu-machi of Tousei District in the Tsugaru Region (see Fig. 6.1 for the location of Imabetsu-machi). The projected population decrease rates of Imabetsu-machi is −24.7% in 2040 from 2010 (IPSSR 2013), and −71.0% in 2045 from 2015 (IPSSR 2018). Then, we are prompted to foresee that the population decline would be closely related to fertility decline and an increase in the older adult population in each municipality. By examining changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups of Oirase-cho, Nishimeya-mura, and Imabetsu-machi, our assumption seems to be correct (see Table 6.2). Proportions of child population in Oirase-cho of Kamikita District in the Nanbu Region has been and should be high, while that of older adults has been and should be much lower than others on the list (except for the Japan average), i.e., the Aomori average, Nishimeya-mura, and Imabetsu-machi. Looking at the proportion for the old-olds (75+) population in Oirase-cho up to the year 2025, which is the lowest on the list, we speculate that there might be some particular reasons accounting for the situation. For example, Oirase-cho is adjacent to such large cities as Misawa-shi and Hachinohe-shi (see Fig. 6.1). Living in Oirase-cho might be convenient for older people, prompting them to move into the area. Changes in the population proportion of Imabetsu-machi of the Tousei District in the Tsugaru Region are quite contrasting to those of Oirase-cho, as we have discussed above. Imabetsu-machi in 2015 is at the marginal settlement state already. The rate for older-adults in Imabetsu-machi is projected to rise to as high as 72.8% of the total population by 2045. In other words, revenue would be extremely limited, and welfare costs would increase significantly. Let us, therefore, look at the socio-economic

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aspects of municipal power of Oirase-cho, Nishimeya-mura, and Imabetsu-machi to understand the present state of these municipalities.

6.3.4.3

Radar Chart of Aomori Prefecture: Oirase-cho, Nishimeya-mura, and Imabetsu-machi

Let us examine the EvaCva radar chart with 14 socio-economic indicators of Aomori Prefecture for these three municipalities, i.e. Oirase-cho, Nishimeya-mura, and Imabetsu-machi (see Fig. 6.3). For an explanation of EvaCva, please refer to Chap. 2 on Methodology of this book. It is clear to see three distinctively different patterns in the radar chart among these three municipalities. Of all the 40 municipalities in Aomori Prefecture where the population decline progresses rapidly, Imabetsu-cho seems to be the municipality doing best in sustaining the population. Overall rating for Oirase-cho is 899th, about the middle of the 1,742 municipalities. Both the natural and the social population growth exceed the national average, which rank 371st and 304th, respectively. However, in the radar chart we notice a sharp bump in the life expectancy index of Nishimeya-mura, which is 1,660th of the 1,742 municipalities in Japan. It indicates that the proportion of older adults might not be large. In fact, its proportion of Oirasecho in 2015 was the smallest among the Japan average, Aomori Prefect average, and the three municipalities listed in Table 6.2. The larger proportion of child population

Fig. 6.3 Aomori Prefecture radar chart: Oirase-cho, Nishimeya-mura, Imabetsu-machi. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. https://evacva.net/ app/?lang=en&radar_dataset=default. Accessed 11 July 2018. Note Score for “0” indicates that no data is available for the index

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and smaller proportion of older adult population indicates a relatively large proportion of working population. This assumption seems to be validated in the case of Oirase-cho up to the year 2015 (see Table 6.2). Now, let us study in detail the municipal power of Nishimeya-mura of the Chunan District in the Tsugaru Region in Aomori Prefecture. As we have pointed out earlier, Nishimeya-mura presents a somewhat unique model of the projected population increase/decrease rates in 2040 and 2045. By looking at the radar chart of Nishimeyamura, we notice the employment index differs significantly from the other two municipalities examined in Aomori Prefecture. The index for Nishimeya-mura ranks 507th of the entire 1,742 municipalities in 2014 when the EvaCva indices were created.2 In fact, this high evaluation of the employment index for Nishimeya-mura coincides with the projected population increase rate in 2040, as seen in Fig. 6.2 which is based on the 2010 national census data. In other words, the projected population increase for 2040 does not take into consideration actual changes which occurred in the Nishimeya-mura population between 2010 and 2014. Thus, we should evaluate with caution. Concerning the radar chart for Imabetsu-machi, it is shocking to notice that most of the indices are strikingly low (mostly about 1,700th), except for traffic security (20th of the 1,742th municipalities in Japan), and child welfare (52nd). Overall evaluation of Imabetsu-machi is 1,735th. The result of radar chart for Imabetsu-machi matches the projected population by age-group that has been discussed in Table 6.2. As is discussed above, both the G-Census GPI mapping and the EvaCva radar chart for Nishimeya-mura present some unique features of socio-demographic characteristics. Therefore, we are prompted to examine the municipal power of Nishimeya-mura in Aomori Prefecture.

6.3.5 Municipal Power of Nishimeya-mura 6.3.5.1

An Overview of Nishimeya-mura

According to the 2015 national census, the population of Nishimeya-mura was the smallest of all the 40 municipalities in Aomori Prefecture (1,415 people and 488 households in 2015; 1,372 people and 541 households as of March 1, 2019; Nishimeya-mura Yakuba 2019). Even so, the village has been getting wide attention not only in Japan, but also from foreign visitors (Nihon no Kyodo Bunka 2017). There must be some reason for it. Before examining the municipal power of Nishimeyamura, let us have an overview of the village by looking at its geography and a brief history. Nishimeya-mura is situated in the southwestern part of Aomori Prefecture, the Chunan District of the Tsugaru Region. The western part of Nishimeya-mura is adjacent to Ajigasawa-machi, the southern part borders Akita Prefecture, and the northeastern part is adjacent to Hirosaki-shi (see Fig. 6.1). It is located approximately 16kms from Hirosaki-shi, the center of the Tsugaru Region, and the total land area

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is 246.58 km2 . Its three sides are surrounded by mountains, with 94.4% of its area as woods and forests with very little arable land and/or cultivated land area. The Aomori Prefectural main road and the Iwaki River run through the center of the village connecting to Hirosaki-shi, and 14 communities are along the road and the river (Nishimeya-mura Shokuin Kumiai 2000). The history of Nishimeya-mura is traced as far back as the Jomon period, and many potteries and earthenware have been excavated. The village is called Meya, believed to be the Ainu language. It is assumed that Japanese culture entered into the village during the Daido period (806–810). When the Oppu Gold Mine was discovered by Lord Tsugaru Tamenobu in Keicho 3 (1597) the village started to flourish. During its peak period about ten new towns were established such as akinai-machi (town for merchants), hatago-machi (lodging town), yamashi-machi (town for mine operators), and fukiya-machi (town for metal refiners and casters). With the abolition of the Han system in the Meiji era, gold mining was temporarily halted, and the village declined quickly. In 1883 (Meiji 16) eight villages were created in the Nakatsugaru District, and a headquarters was built in Tashiro-mura. Then, with the establishment of the municipality system in 1898, each of these eight villages became independent, and one of them, Nishimeya-mura, emerged (Nihon no Sato Bunkla 2017).

6.3.5.2

Population Changes in Nishimeya-mura

As we have witnessed earlier, the 2015 national census reveals that the population of Nishimeya-mura is the smallest of 40 municipalities in Aomori Prefecture, and it continues to decline today (1,372 people, 643 males, 729 females, and 541 households as of March 1, 2019). The total population of Nishimeya-mura has been declining ever since 1980 (2,812 people), except for the year 2010 when its total population increased by 84 (see Table 6.3). This seems to be the reason for an unusually high population increase rate, derived for the population projection in Nishimeya-mura for 2040 by the IPSSR study (IPSSR 2013). The IPSSR study is based on the population changes by 2010, and there was no way to take into consideration the population changes afterwards. The G-Census GIS statistical data are based on the IPSSR 2013 report with data from the 2010 national census. Therefore, we saw some unusual projections in the population increase for Nishimeya-mura in Fig. 6.2. According to the Nishimeya-mura population report (Nishimeya-mura 2015) the population increase of 84 people from 2005 to 2010 was due to a substantial increase of the working population, ages 15–64 (101 people), mostly male workers engaged in the construction industry. By the time of the 2015 national census many of them had likely left the village, in fact, as many as 154 people in the working age-group left the village (see Table 6.3) as confirmed in the proportion of the working population in Nishimeya-mura from 2000 to 2010 (see Table 6.2). As the total number of the village people was quite small then, even a small number of people moving in or out had a significant impact on the projected population increase rate. The total population of Nishimeya-mura in 2015 (1,415 people, −11.2% from 2010) is 19 people fewer (−1.3%) than what was projected by the IPSSR study

−34

−161

−28

−223

−72

−221

−14

−307

0–14

15–64

65 and over

Total

−51

6

−40

−17

1990–1995

−14

22

−22

−14

1995–2000

−336

−103

−201

−32

2000–2005

84

−7

101

−10

2005–2010

−178

−8

−154

−16

2010–2015

−1,025

−132

−698

−195

Total

Source Nishimeya-mura 2015, the data for 2015 were added the Population Migration Reports based on the Basic Resident Register, MIAC, and data for 2015 were from the national census. The table is compiled and constructed by the author

1985–1990

1980–1985

Age group

Table 6.3 Population changes in Nishimeya-mura by 3-age groups in every 5 year period: 1980–2015

6.3 Aomori Prefecture and Nishimeya-mura 167

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(IPSSR 2013). A further population decline is projected to 611 (−56.8% from the population in 2015) by the year 2045, and the projected population decrease rate ranks 162nd of the 1,741 municipalities in Japan. At that time, the average age for the people in the village would be 59.9 years old, a 6.3-year increase from that of 2015. By the year 2045, Nishimeya-mura would be nearly a marginal settlement state (see Table 6.2, and IPSSR 2018). Due to changes in the industrial structure the depopulation in Nishimeya-mura started in 1960 when the population hit its highest (5,346 people). When the construction of Meya Dam was completed in March 1960, many workers in the agricultural and/or mining industries outside of Nishimeya-mura were forced to leave, to seek jobs elsewhere. Consequently, in 1971 the village was designated a depopulated area under the Emergency Act for Depopulated Area Measures by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication (MIAC 2000). Furthermore, with the complete closing of Oppu Mines in August 1978 the population decrease in Nishimeya-mura accelerated, and fertility decline became an inevitable consequence (Nishimeya-mura Yakuba 2015). Nevertheless, we should be alert enough to examine the positive sides of municipal power and resources in Nishimeya-mura, such as the Shirakami-Sanchi World Heritage site of ancient beech trees, the popular Tsugaru Dam, its closeness to Hirosaki-shi, and a highly evaluated pioneer program in Japan on child rearing, to name a few. As we have witnessed earlier, the EvaCva radar charts rank child welfare 63rd, older adult welfare 67th, security 25th, and traffic safety 42nd. These positive indices could be turned into assets of the village to ease population decline by encouraging younger people to move into the village. Thus, let us study new programs in Nishimeya-mura on “eco-tourism” and “dam–tourism.”

6.3.5.3

Municipal Power of Nishimeya-mura: Ecotourism of Shirakami-Sanchi World Heritage and Dam Tourism of Nishimeya Dam

(1) Eco-Tourism Everyone would agree that the most precious municipal power of Nishimeya-mura, where depopulation has been progressing rapidly, would be the Shirakami-Sanchi (Mountains) World Heritage range. There is no better way for making best use of its valuable municipal power. Hence, Nishimeya-mura together with neighboring municipalities such as Ajigasawa-machi, and Fukaura-machi launched the experimental program of Shirakami-Sanchi Ecotourism in 2011 (Aomori Prefectural Government 2012b). What is meant by “ecotourism?” According to the Japan Ecotourism Society (JES) the concept of “ecotourism” is based on conservation and preservation of unique local resources. And therefore, ecotourism aims to activate local economies by providing tourists with opportunities to experience local attractions accompanied by competent

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interpreters while preserving local resources such as the natural environment, culture, and historical heritage (Aomori Prefectural Government 2012b; JES 1998). Shirakami-Sanchi, registered as a UNESCO World Heritage property in December 1993, is the general name given to an extensive mountainous region of 130,000 ha ranging from the southwest of Aomori to the northwest of Akita Prefecture. Within this area are 16,971 ha of land including virgin forests of Japanese beech. This trackless site includes the last virgin remains of the cool-temperate forest of Siebold’s beech trees that once covered the hills and mountain slopes of northern Japan, from eight to twelve thousand years ago. The black bear, and 87 species of birds can be found in this forest (Aomori Prefectural Government 2012b; UNESCO World Heritage Center 2019). When the ice age arrived, the beech forests moved south in response to the cooling of the climate. However, shrubs and herbaceous plants were blocked by mountains stretching from east to west in Europe and many other regions throughout the world, making it impossible for them to move south. Since only beech trees moved south, the vegetation in the beech forests came to be simplified. In Japan, there were no mountains blocking the southward movement of their distribution, and so the species composition of the plant community in the Arctic region was largely maintained. For this reason, in Shirakami-Sanchi, a distinctive beech forest similar to the one around the Arctic region approximately 30 million years ago has been preserved (Kankyo-sho 2019). The primeval beech forest of the Shirakami-Sanchi World Heritage Property is conserved through measures like patrols and management grounded in various laws, ordinances, and rules. At present, no significant problems have surfaced that would threaten its outstanding universal value. However, ongoing monitoring of the natural environment is necessary since the possibility of challenges arising in the future has been pointed out, such as the impact from climate change. Japanese Government officials, experts, and local stakeholders are working together to promote conservation efforts (Kankyo-sho 2019). Rangers from the Ministry of the Environment and personnel from other government agencies, staff hired by the agencies, and volunteers periodically carry out patrols to ensure that the World Heritage property is being properly conserved. Trespassing is prohibited in core areas, as are the felling of and damage to trees, illegal harvesting of plants, poaching of fish in no-fishing areas, disposal of trash, and open bonfires. In addition, they educate visitors about etiquette and provide instruction on procedures for visiting the mountains. Joint patrols are carried out several times a year, organized by the Shirakami-Sanchi World Heritage Area Liaison Committee (Kankyo-sho 2019). As mentioned earlier, a committee was launched to promote ecotourism in Shirakami-Sanchi, establishing the Kan-Shirakami Ecotourism Suishin Kyogikai in 2011 (Council for Promoting the Pan Shirakami Ecotourism), which was expanded to include eight surrounding municipalities in both Aomori and Akita Prefectures. The committee carries out activities to unearth local resources such as asking local people how they have interacted with nature in Shirakami-Sanchi in the past and conducting questionnaires related to historical culture, foods, and nature that the people can

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show off, value, and look on with pride. This is done with the goal of having local residents, local stakeholders, and others come together to work to address ecotourism in the World Heritage property and its surrounding regions. Promoting ecotourism will convey to tourists the appeal inherent in the local area, get them to understand its value and importance, and thereby lead to further conservation (Kan-Shirakami Exotourism Suishin Kyogikai 2018). What is needed for Nishimeya-mura to further promote ecotourism of ShirakamiSanchi would be to organize some programs for tourists. In order to materialize the objective, it is essential to train professional rangers and/or guides to teach tourists about the wonders of nature and connections between humans and nature by having them experience nature. With these programs, tourists could go out into nature together with experts of the rivers and mountains who actually live in the area of Shirakami-Sanchi. The tourists also hear talks about the traditional dietary culture, hunting by Matagithe Japanese traditional winter game hunter — fishing from river fishermen, and the wonders of nature. It would be ideal if Shirakami-Sanchi could be used for environmental learning experiences for tourists who visit the World Heritage site. It is urgently suggested to encourage young people to take part in such training programs for professional rangers and/or guides of Shirakami-Sanchi. (2) Dam Tourism: From Meya Dam to Tsugaru Dam The other resource that Nishimeya-mura can make use of for revitalization is Tsugaru Dam. Recently there has emerged the so-called “dam tourism” in Japan. Dam tourism is a Japanese-coined word by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), and its synonym in English would be “infrastructure tourism.” Thus, dam tourism signifies an emerging segment of the tourism market incorporating dams and neighboring natural environments that have drawn interest from both sightseers and travel organizers alike. Consequently, dam tourism enables the dam to express its effectiveness for tourism resources (MLIT 2019a, b). Now that the construction of Tsugaru Dam was completed in the fall of 2016, Nishimeya Dam Lake Amphibious Bus Tour is in operation as an integral part of municipal power in Nishimeya-mura. Before learning dam tourism in Nishimeya-mura, let us study briefly about Tsugaru Dam. Prior to the recent debut of Tsugaru Dam there existed Meya Dam in the Iwaki River (Iwaki-gawa) which was completed in 1960. For an extended period of nearly 60 years Meya Dam protected the area from flooding, supplied agricultural irrigation water, provided electricity through hydropower, and contributed significantly to the development of the Tsugaru Region in various ways. As years progressed, the demand for water supply became increasingly apparent, and, therefore, a project to redevelop Meya Dam as Tsugaru Dam was established in 1988, and three years later in 1991 dam construction started. By the year 2014 the concrete placement to the dam body was completed. Between February and September of 2016, an examination for

6.3 Aomori Prefecture and Nishimeya-mura

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powering water into the dam was pursued to test for the safety of the new dam, and all construction works were completed in October. Then, in April 2017, the Iwakigawa Dam Integrated Management Office was opened to manage the facility, and the old Meya Dam in the bottom of the new Tsugaru Dam was named Shirakami Lake. The size and capacity of Tsugaru Dam are as follows: height, 97.2 m (1.7 times of Meya Dam); crest length, 342.0 m (2.0 times); dam volume, 759,000 m3 (6.4 times); reservoir capacity, 140,900,000 m3 (3.6 times); catchment area, 172 km2 ; and water surface area, 510 ha (2.5 times) (MLIT, Bureau of the Tohoku Region 2019). Now that Tsugaru Dam was completed Nishimeya-mura administration office considers it an essential municipal power for the revitalization of not only the village, but also the entire Tsugaru Shirakami Lake Park region. One of the programs they offer, which is gaining popularity among tourists, is the Nishimeya Dam Lake Amphibious Bus Tour. The amphibious bus takes tourists from a bus stop near Beech Nishimeya for a drive through the beautiful natural scenery, a splash into Lake Tsugaru Shirakami, then a sightseeing tour on the lake, returning on land to the departing point of the information center of Michi-no-Eki Tsugaru Shirakami. The round-trip tour lasts 60 min altogether, 40 min on land, and 20 min on water. (Tsugaru Navi 2019; Tsugaru Shirakami Tour 2019). Nishimeya-mura is truly enriched with municipal power of natural and infrastructure resources such as Shirakami-Sanchi World Heritage site, and Tsugaru Dam which no other municipality in Japan, or even the world possesses. Nishimeya-mura should be proud of its enriched municipal power, and make the best use of them for their revitalization. Although the residential population is unlikely to increase, tourists will become not only a source of the substantial revenue, but also bring liveliness to the village, especially young people who were not attracted to the region before. Needless to say, however, in order to get the attention of the younger generations it is important that effective measures for advertising be implemented using modern ICT technologies.

6.4 Yamagata Prefecture and Higashine-shi 6.4.1 Profile of Yamagata Prefecture: Murayama, Mogami, Okitama, Shonai Regions Yamagata Prefecture is located in northeastern Honshu (the main island of Japan) of the Tohoku Region, and bordered to the north by Akita Prefecture, to the east by Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures, to the south by Fukushima and Niigata Prefectures, and to the west by the Sea of Japan. It is located approximately 300 km north of Tokyo, about a three-hour ride on the Yamagata Shinkansen Bullet Train from Tokyo. The land area of Yamagata Prefecture as of October 1, 2015 is 9,323.15 km2 (east-west about 97 km, north-south about 164 km), and it ranks as 9th largest of all

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the 47 prefectures. The terrain is predominantly mountainous, with the Ou Mountains running north and south along the eastern edge of the prefecture, and the Dewa and Asahi mountain ranges rising along the coast on the west. Thus, the Prefecture is surrounded by such beautiful mountains as Zao, Gassan, Chokai, and Azuma which are counted in Japan’s top one hundred famous mountains. Between these mountain chains the so-called “mother river” Mogami-gawa flows northward, and then westward, emptying into the Sea of Japan at Sakata-shi. The estuary of Mogami-gawa forms Shonai Plain, and most of the prefecture’s level areas are located along this river. The climate is characterized by warm summers, and snowy winters (Yamagata Prefectural Government 2017). The harmonious coexistence between nature and humans brings about another Japan in which people find a spiritual culture. In fact, it is well-known that Matsuo Basho, the great Haiku poet during the Edo era, spent 43 days, nearly one third of his 156-day journey in Oku no Hoso Michi (the narrow road to the deep north in the Tohoku Region), traveling through Yamagata Prefecture. With the historical influence of the shogunate in the Edo period, the prefecture today is divided into four regions, namely, Murayama, Mogami, Okitama, and Shonai Regions. There exist regional differences among them in their dialects, food, and culture (Yamagata Prefectural Government 2017).

6.4.2 A Brief History of Yamagata Prefecture During the formative years of the Japanese nation, today’s Yamagata area was occupied by Ezo (Emishi)3 tribesmen. Similar to Aomori Prefecture, Yamagata inherited the Jomon culture, and many artifacts such as potteries and clay figures have been excavated in the area. In fact, the clay figure called the “goddess of Jomon” is regarded as the largest one excavated in Japan. After the Jomon era, the Yayoi culture of rice cultivation was brought into the area. A huge zenpou kouen fun (circular-shaped ancient tomb with rectangular frontage) which signifies the Yayoi culture exists in Nanyo-shi (see Fig. 6.4 in the following page) in the southern part of the prefecture (Yamagata Prefectural Government 2017). The central government of the Imperial House of Yamato gradually extended its control over the Tohoku Region, and Dewa Province was established in 712, extracting it from Echigo (Niigata Prefecture today). It was two years after the beginning of the Nara era with Heijyo-kyo (castle) in Nara of then Yamato, one of the five home provinces of the Goki-Shichido. Four years from the beginning of the Nara era in 714, however, Mogami and Okitama counties were extracted from the neighboring Mutsu Province to incorporate into Dewa Province of the Tosando. (For prefectures and of the Tosando refer to Fig. 1.5, and Fig. 1.12, respectively in Chap. 1 of this book). During this era, three ancient temples for Shugendo mountains (Japanese mountain asceticism-shamanism incorporating Shinto and Buddhist concepts) were erected, and are transmitted to today. These temples are Jakusho-ji of Tendo-shi, Risshaku-ji of Yamagta-shi, and Jion-ji of Sagae-shi. In this manner

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173

Murayama Region (14 municipalities): 1. Yamagata-shi, 2. Sagae-shi, 3. Kaminoyama-shi, 4. Murayama-shi, 5. Tendo-shi, 6. Higashine-shi, 7. Obanazawa-shi, 8. Yamanobe-machi, 9. Nakayama-machi, 10. Kahoku-machi, 11. Nishikawa-machi, 12. Asahi-machi, 13. Oe-machi and 14. Oishida-machi Mogami Region (8 municipalities): 15. Shinjo-shi, 16. Kaneyama-machi, 17. Mogami-machi, 18. Funagata-machi, 19. Mamurogawa-machi, 20. Okura-mura, 21. Sakegawa-mura and 22. Tozawa-mura Okitama Region (8 municipalities): 23. Yonezawa-shi, 24. Nagai-shi, 25. Nanyo-shi, 26. Takahata-machi, 27. Kawanishi-machi, 28. Oguni-machi, 29. Shirataka-machi, and 30. Iide-machi Shonai Region (5 municipalities): 31. Tsuruoka-shi, 32. Sakata-shi, 33. Mikawa-machi, 34. Shonai-machi and 35. Yuza-machi

Fig. 6.4 Map of Yamagata Prefecture by municipality (13 cities, 19 towns, and 3 villages = Total of 35 municipalities). Source GIS free color map, https://n.freemap.jp/st/list.html, and https://n.fre emap.jp/tp/Yamagata. Accessed 9 Mar 2020. The map is drawn by the author. Note Numbers on the map correspond to those found for the name of each municipality listed under each region

Dewa Province (or today’s Yamagata Prefecture) was gradually incorporated into the central government in Nara (710–794) and/or Kyoto throughout the Heian era (794–1185). At the end of the Heian era, however, Dewa Province was believed to be under the strong influence of the Oshu Fujiwara family as many Yoshitsune4 legends were known in the area (Yamagata Prefectural Government 2017).

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During the Kamakura period (1185–1333) samurai warriors in the Kanto Region who had contributed significantly in attacks upon the Oshu Fujiwara family were assigned to various areas of Dewa Province as jito (estate stewards). These samurai warriors, from such as the Oe, Sagae, and Nagai families of the Murayama and Okitama Regions, and the Muto and Taihoji families in the Shonai Region, assigned their agents to rule the areas instead. Later on, however, they themselves came to each region to become the local lords. In 1356, the Shiba family which controlled Oshu (Mutsu Province) sent Shiba Kaneyori to Dewa Province as the Ushu administrator. As the headquarters of the Shiba family was in the Mogami Region they changed the family name to Mogami, and Mogami Yoshiaki, in particular, expanded their power to the northern part of Dewa Province from Murayama, Mogami, and Shonai Regions (Yamagata Prefectural Government 2017). After the Battle of Sekigahara (1601) the Okitama Region was administered by Naoe Kanetsugu, while the rest of Dewa Province came under the rule of Mogami Yoshimitsu who fought with the Tokugawa Family in the Eastern Group at the Battle of Sekigahara. However, the Mogami family was abolished (called kaieki5 in Japanese) in 1622 due to an internal dispute. Since then, the Yamagata part of Dewa Province was split among numerous small family clans. Among them, some family clans such as Shonai, Shinjyo, Yonezawa, and Yamagata were relatively strong. Having an excellent port of Sakata, regarded as the number one port on the Japan Seaside of Honshu, contributed to the flourishing of the Shinjyo Region to prosper by the refined type of Kyoto culture being brought into the region. In Sakata, the Honma family, the most influential landlord throughout Japan, emerged. Three regions other than Shinjyo, namely Shonai, Yonezawa, and Yamagata, being located in easy access to Sendai, enabled them to absorb the Sendai propensity, known as craving for new things, and an enterprising spirit. Uesugi Yozan, the ninth lord of the Yonezawa clan, received respect for his efforts in reconstructing the family clan from an exhausted financial situation (Takemitsu 2009; Yamagata Prefectural Government 2017). Upon the enforcement of Haihan Chiken (the abolition of feudal domains and establishment of prefectures) in 1871 the feudal domain system was abolished, and the prefectural system was introduced. Then, the feudal domains in the Yamagata region of Dewa Province were reorganized into seven prefectures. They were, namely, Yamagata, Yonezawa, Kamiyama, Tendo, Shinjyo, Oizumi, and Matsumine Prefectures. Five years later in 1876, however, these seven prefectures were merged into one to become Yamagata Prefecture. At that time, there were 336 towns and 1,223 villages in 11 counties in Yamagata Prefecture. In 1889, with the enforcement of municipal regulations, Yamagata Prefecture was reorganized into two cities (Yamagata and Yonezawa), eight towns (Miyauchi, Nagai, Kamiyama, Tendo, Shinjyo, Sakata, Matsumine, and Tsuruoka), and 212 villages. After several stages of municipal reorganization, and the Great Merger of Showa,6 Yamagata Prefecture in 1968 had 13 cities, 27 towns, and 4 villages, and today there are 35 municipalities (13 cities, 19 towns, and 3 villages) in the prefecture (Yamagata Prefectural Government 2017, and see Fig. 6.4).

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6.4.3 Municipalities in Yamagata Prefecture by Region From the history of Yamagata Prefecture we learned that it has been under the significant influence of feudal domains rather than Dewa Province on Tosando of the Goki Shichido itself. Furthermore, it is understandable why the regional variations, i.e., Murayama, Mogami, Okitama, and/or Shonai, emerged and still have a significant impact on population, culture, and all spheres of life in Yamagata Prefecture. Thus, let us find where and in which region 35 municipalities (see Fig. 6.4) in Yamagata Prefecture are located and belong to four Regions respectively (see Fig. 6.4). Murayama Region (14 municipalities): Yamagata-shi, Sagae-shi, Kaminoyamashi, Murayama-shi, Tendo-shi, Higashine-shi, Obanazawa-shi, Yamanobe-machi, Nakayama-machi, Kahoku-machi, Nishikawa-machi, Asahi-machi, Oe-machi and Oishida-machi. Mogami Region (8 municipalities): Shinjo-shi, Kaneyama-machi, Mogamimachi, Funagata-machi, Mamurogawa-machi, Okura-mura, Sakegawa-mura and Tozawa-mura. Okitama Region (8 municipalities): Yonezawa-shi, Nagai-shi, Nanyo-shi, Takahata-machi, Kawanishi-machi, Oguni-machi, Shirataka-machi, and Iide-machi. Shonai Region (5 municipalities): Tsuruoka-shi, Sakata-shi, Mikawa-machi, Shonai-machi and Yuza-machi.

6.4.4 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power of Yamagata Prefecture 6.4.4.1

Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power of Yamagata Prefecture by Region

The municipal power of household type, marriage power, population-sustaining power, and projected population increase rates from 2015 to 2045 of Yamagata Prefecture are compared and contrasted by region (see Table 6.4). Looking at generational family households in 2015, we notice that the average rate for Yamagata Prefecture (40.69%) is more than three times as much as the Japan average proportion (13.29%). Among four regions in Yamagata Prefecture, the Mogami Region (48.60%) is by far the highest. High rates for generational family households in the Mogami Region, (Sakegawa-mura 56.10%; Kaneyama-machi 54.82%; Tozawamura 51.23%; Funagata-machi 49.96%, Okura-mura 47.65%, and Mamurogawamachi 46.35%) are taken as evidence of the strong influence of the Tsugaru clan family during the Edo shogunate, and the Jomon culture which flourished in the northeastern region of Japan.

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Table 6.4 Municipal power of Yamagata Prefecture: By region and, Higashine-shi, Yamagata-shi, and Okura-mura Municipality

Generational family Marriage Population-sustaining household 2015 (%)a power power 2013 (%)b 2013 (‰) b

Japan average

Projected population increase rates 2015–2045 (%)c

13.29

5.30

−0.19

−6.3

Yamagata Prefecture 40.65 average

3.80

−1.53

−31.6

Murayama Region (14 municipalities)

37.59

3.97

−1.19

−30.3

Mogami Region (8 municipalities)

48.60

3.67

−2.24

−52.2

Okitama Region (8 municipalities)

39.11

3.71

−1.62

−43.6

Shonai Region (5 municipalities)

38.93

3.70

−1.21

−39.3

Higashine-shi (Murayama Region)

31.77

5.93

0.23

−6.3

Yamagata-shi (Murayama Region)

21.49

4.68

−0.12

−31.6

Okura-mura (Mogami Region)

47.65

3.87

−3.11

−55.0

Sources a Statistics Bureau, MIAC (2018a, b) b MIAC (2014) c IPSSR (2018). The table is compiled and constructed by the author

On the other hand, rates for generational family households in three regions other than Mogami in Yamagata Prefecture today are significantly lower than their Mogami Region counterpart (see Table 6.4). The average rate in the Murayama Region for its total 14 municipalities is 37.59%, but municipal variations within the region should be noted (ranging from the high of 48.19% in Oishida-machi, to the low of 21.49% in Yamagata-shi). It is also true for the remaining two other regions, the Okitama and Shonai Regions. In the Okitama Region it varies from a high of 49.06% in Kawanishi-machi to the low of 29.13% in Yonezawa-shi, and that of Shonai ranging from the high of 44.07% in Shonai-machi to the low of 30.01% in Sakata-shi). The municipal power of marriage power, population-sustaining power, and projected population increase rates for municipalities in Yamagata Prefecture by region were also examined. We noticed that regional variations on marriage power are not outstanding enough to make a difference. However, the one for Higashineshi (5.93‰) where the proportion for generational family households (31.77%) is much lower than the prefectural average (40.65%) and regional average (Murayama 37.59%).

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The impact of marriage power (X) on population-sustaining power (Y) for 35 municipalities in Yamagata Prefecture is highly significant (Y = –3.551 + 0.534X, adjusted R2 = 0.278, P = 0.000). The marriage power of Higashine-shi, however, is outstandingly strong, as is its population-sustaining power for 2013 (0.23%), with a projected population increase rate in 2045 (−6.3%) among all the 35 municipalities in Yamagata Prefecture. We should note that the marriage power of Okuramura (3.87‰) in the Mogami Region is quite small, hence its population-sustaining power becomes negative (−3.11%), as does its projected population increase rate in 2045 (−55.0%). We can imagine that Okura-mura in 2045 will become a marginal settlement with the older adult population becoming well over one-half of the total population (see Table 6.5 presented in the following section). These results of municipal power for Yamagata Prefecture suggest that we should analyze closely factors contributing to the projected population increase in 2045 of each municipality separately, but not Yamagata Prefecture as a whole.

6.4.4.2

Population Changes by Age Group of Yamagata Prefecture, Higashine-shi, Yamagata-shi, and Okura-mura

The total population of Yamagata Prefecture hit its peak in 1950 (1,357,347 people), and declined to 1,220,302 people in 1975. Then, 10 years afterwards, in 1985, it increased (1,261,662 people). However, it has been declining ever since the 1985 national census to that of 2015 (1,123,891 people, and it is minus 45,600 (−3.9%) people from the previous national census). Among all the 47 prefectures in Japan, the population decrease rate for the most recent five years (−3.9%) is the sixth highest, next to Akita, Fukushima, Aomori, Iwate, and Kochi Prefectures. Based on the 2015 national census, the projected population for Yamagata Prefecture in 2045 would be 768,000, −31.6% from the population in 2015, a decrease rate that would be the third highest of 47 prefectures after Akita and Aomori Prefectures. In 2045 the average age for the people in Yamagata Prefecture would become 55.1 years of age, a 6.0-year increase from that of 2015 (IPSSR 2018). Fertility decline and population aging in Yamagata Prefecture will accelerate further than ever before. By 2025 the proportion of the child population will be 11%, by the year 2040 adults 65 and over will exceed 40%, and by the year 2035 old-olds 75 and over will be more than a quarter of the entire population in Yamagata Prefecture (see Table 6.5). Projections for population increase rates by municipality in 2040 in Yamagata Prefecture are presented by way of the GPS G-Census geographic tool. It is clear that population decline would accelerate throughout Yamagata Prefecture regardless of the region. We notice however, a few municipalities are marked relatively in dark shades. They are Higashine-shi, Yamanobe-machi, Yamagata-shi, Sagae-shi, and Tendo-shi of the Murayama Region. Populations in all of these municipalities are in fact declining, but their decline rates are relatively low, and they are marked as relatively darker (see Fig. 6.5).

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Table 6.5 Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Yamagata Prefecture, Higashine-shi, Yamagata-shi, Okura-mura Japan

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

23.9

23.5

18.2

14.6

13.2

12.5

11.5

10.8

10.7

Working population 15–64

69.1

67.4

69.7

68.1

63.8

60.8

58.5

56.4

52.5

Older adults 65+ population

7.0

9.1

12.1

17.4

23.0

26.6

30.0

32.8

36.8

Old-olds 75+ population

2.1

3.1

4.8

7.1

11.1

12.8

17.8

19.6

21.4

Yamagata Prefecture

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

21.0

18.6

15.0

12.8

12.1

11.0

10.2

9.6

Working population 15–64

67.3

65.1

62.1

59.6

57.1

53.0

50.9

47.4

Older adults 65+ population

11.7

16.3

23.0

27.6

30.8

36.0

38.9

43.0

4.0

6.4

9.8

15.4

16.9

20.6

25.0

26.7

Old-olds 75+ population Higashine-shi

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

21.0

18.9

15.6

14.4

14.3

13.4

12.7

12.1

Working population 15–64

67.6

66.4

63.5

61.2

59.6

57.3

56.2

52.9

Older adults 65+ population

11.4

14.7

20.8

24.4

26.1

29.3

31.1

34.9

3.5

6.2

8.4

13.5

14.7

16.9

19.7

21.0

Old-olds 75+ population Yamagata-shi

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

22.1

18.5

14.7

13.2

12.7

11.6

10.7

10.1

Working population 15–64

68.2

67.7

65.7

62.6

60.1

56.8

54.5

50.2

Older adults 65+ population

9.6

13.8

19.6

24.1

27.3

31.6

34.8

39.7

Old-olds 75+ population

3.2

5.4

8.3

12.8

14.3

18.7

22.0

24.1

Okura-mura

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

21.4

19.7

15.8

11.7

12.2

10.7

8.9

7.4

Working population 15–64

66.2

62.4

57.1

56.1

53.5

45.7

43.1

41.8

Older adults 65+ population

12.5

17.8

27.0

32.2

34.3

43.7

48.0

50.8

4.9

6.3

12.4

19.3

20.0

23.3

32.7

34.9

Old-olds 75+ population

Sources For 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2015 National Census; for 2025, 2035, and 2045 IPSSR 2018. The table is compiled and constructed by the author

Furthermore, it is difficult to identify in the G-Census figure presented here that the municipality in which the population decline rate in 2040 is most acute is Okuramura of Mogami Region (see Fig. 6.4 for the location of Okura-mura). The projected population decrease rates of Okura-mura would be −47.6% in 2040 from 2010 (IPSSR 2013), and −55.0% in 2045 from 2015 (IPSSR 2018). Then, we are prompted to foresee that the population decline would be closely related to fertility decline, and an increase in the older adult population in each municipality. By examining changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups of Higashine-shi, Yamagata-shi, and Okura-mura our assumption seems to be validated (see Table 6.5). Proportions of child population in Higashine-shi of the

6.4 Yamagata Prefecture and Higashine-shi

179

Fig. 6.5 Projections for population increase rates by municipality in 2040 against 2010: Yamagata Prefecture. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020

Murayama Region has been and should be high, while that of older adults population has been and should be much lower than others on the list except for the Japan average, the Yamagata average, and Okura-mura. Changes in the population proportion of Higashine-shi of the Murayama Region are quite contrasting to those of Okura-mura of the Mogami Region. It is expected that Okura-mura by the year 2045 will exceed the marginal settlement state (50.8%). In other words, revenue would be extremely limited, and welfare costs would increase significantly. Let us, therefore, look at the socio-economic aspects of municipal power of these three municipalities in Yamagata Prefecture, namely Higashine-shi, Yamagata-shi, and Okura-mura to understand the present state of these municipalities.

180

6.4.4.3

6 Successful Municipal Revitalization in Devastated …

Radar Chart of Yamagata Prefecture: Higashine-shi, Yamagata-shi, and Okura-mura

Let us examine the EvaCva radar chart using 14 socio-economic indicators of Yamagata Prefecture for these three municipalities, i.e. Higashine-shi, Yamagata-shi, and Okura-mura (see Fig. 6.6. For an explanation of EvaCva, please refer to Chap. 2 on Methodology of this book). In comparing and contrasting these three municipalities in the radar charts we notice that the overall pattern of Higashine-shi and Yamagata-shi are similar to each other, but that of Okura-mura differs significantly from the other two. Overall ratings for Higashine-shi, Yamagata-shi, and Okura-mura are 282nd, 593rd, and 1,300th of all the 1,742 municipalities, respectively. As we have noticed earlier, the populationdeclining rate of Okura-mura is at a critical situation. The overall evaluation for the municipality is also quite negative. The radar chart for Okura-mura shows clearly two essential reasons for it. Namely, poor evaluations for population indices (natural population growth, 1,645th; and social population growth, 1,657th), and those of economics (municipal GDP, 1,576th; revenue, 1,415th; finance, 1,570th; and wealth, 1,706th. On the other hand, we notice that indices for life expectancy (687th), older adult welfare (541st), and employment (971st) are not so bad. This may indicate that the population of Okura-mura as a whole has come to be an adult-oriented society already. In fact, changes in population proportions by age groups for the village coincide with this assumption (see Table 6.5). Nevertheless, it should also be noted

Fig. 6.6 Yamagata Prefecture rader chart: Higashine-shi, Yamagata-shi, and Okura-mura. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. https://evacva.net/ app/?lang=en&radar_dataset=default. Accessed 11 July 2018

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181

that the child welfare index of Okura-mura is rated very favorably (124th) and that of TFR (166th) as well. What do these contrasting findings mean? Our conjecture would be that the increase rate for the adult population is much larger than that of children. Consequently, the population decline in Okura-mura progresses rapidly. According to the most recent national census in 2015 the population decrease over the previous five years in Okura-mura was 3.412 people (−9.3%) (MIAC 2016c). The population projection for Okura-mura in 2045 from 2015 would accelerate further to −55.0%, a reduction to 1,500 people. Its population reduction rate would be 207th highest of the total 1,741 municipalities (as of April 1, 2017). The average age for Okura-mura people in 2045 would be 60.6 years of age, an 8.8-year increase from 51.8 years in 2015 (IPSSR 2018). Now, let us study the radar chart of Higashine-shi of the Murayama Region in Yamagata Prefecture. As we have witnessed earlier, Higashine-shi presents a somewhat unique model of the projected population increase/decrease rates in 2040 (−9.4%) and 2045 (−6.3%) (see Tables 3.2 and 3.3 in Chap. 3 of this book, IPSSR 2013, 2018). That is, the rate for projected population decline is the lowest among municipalities in the Tohoku Region where most of them, except for Miyagi Prefecture, are suffering from an acute level of population decline. The overall pattern of radar charts for Higashine-shi and Yamagata-shi, the prefectural capital, look very much alike. Of the 14 indices measured, however, there are only two which differ between these two municipalities. They are the municipal gross domestic product (GDP) and the total fertility rate (TFR). Higashine-shi is well-known especially for its fruit production, which results in a high score for the municipal GDP (ranks 100th, while Yamagata-shi ranks 465th of all the 1,742th municipalities in Japan). As for the TFR, Higashine-shi ranks 291st, while Yamagata-shi is 1,239th. It is likely that the high rate for municipal GDP brought about both social and natural population growth, and resulted in the favorable TFR in Higashine-shi rather than Yamagata-shi. As is discussed above, both the G-Census GPI mapping and the EvaCva radar chart suggest we examine Higashine-shi in detail for its municipal power, to investigate reasons for the high rate of economic activities, and the fertility activities as well. Let us study, therefore, the municipal power of Higashine-shi in Yamagata Prefecture.

6.4.5 Municipal Power of Higashine-shi 6.4.5.1

An Overview of Higashine-shi

As a city, the population of Higashine-shi is relatively small (47,768 people in 2015, and 47,831 people and 17,580 households as of March 1, 2019), but it ranks as 6th largest in Yamagata Prefecture (cities preceding Higashine-shi are Yamagata, Tsuruoka, Sakata, Yonezawa, and Tendo). The reason for our attention to Higashineshi is that the population decrease rate for the city from 2010 to 2040 is the lowest (−9.4%) of all the 35 municipalities in Yamagata Prefecture (average: −28.5%) (IPSSR 2013). Furthermore, Higashine-shi is the only municipality among 35 municipalities in Yamagata Prefecture which showed a population increase in the 2015

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national census from that of the previous one (MIAC 2016b). Thus, we believe it is worthwhile to examine the municipal power of Higashine-shi which contributes to the population increase of the city. Before examining the municipal power of Higashineshi, however, let us have an overview of the city by looking at its geography and a brief history. Higashine-shi is located in the central part of Yamagata Prefecture in the Murayama basin of the Murayama Region. The northern part of Higashine-shi abuts Murayama-shi and Obanazawa-shi, its western part abuts Sagae-shi and Kahokumachi, the eastern part of Higashine-shi is adjacent to Sendai-shi of Miyagi Prefecture, and the southern part abuts Yamagata-shi and Tendo-shi (see Fig. 6.4). It is a rural city immersed in a rich nature environment, including hot springs. At the same time, Higashine-shi today has become the transportation center of Yamagata Prefecture, with Yamagata Airport, Sakurambo Higashine Station on the Yamagata bullet train and national highway routes 13, 48, and 287 passing through the city. As a consequence, Higashine-shi has become one of the major industrial cities in the Tohoku Region, a center of technology. The total land area is 206.94 km2 , the 9th largest in Yamagata Prefecture. The land of Higashine-shi, however is on an alluvial fan,7 and its central part in particular suffers from poor water services. Therefore, land development had to wait until quite recent times, and it was only in contemporary times that the area turned into a well-known orchard area in Japan (Higashine City 2019; Kumagai 2018). Higashine-shi has a long history, and various remains from the Jomon era have been discovered. It is said there was a huge lake called Mogaumi in the center of Murayama basin, and also on the foot of Ou Mountains there was a place called Higashine where an advanced level of cultivation was recognized. For this reason, the place where cultivation first took place was called Higashine. During the Heian period (794–1185) lowland fields in the northwestern part of Higashine pioneered the Jori system of land subdivision in ancient Japan. Then, Murayama county was newly established, and became the political center of the region. Then, Odanojimasho (Manor Odanojima), recorded as the oldest manor in the Tohoku Region, was built. During the Nanbokucho period (1336–1392), the influential lord of the manor, Odajima Nagayoshi, controlled the region (Higashine City 2019; Kumagai 2018). During the Sengoku era (1467–1590) the Satomi clan family controlled the region, and built the impressive Higashine castle, the foundation of the castle town Higashine. However, with the kaieki8 of the Mogami family in 1622 the Higashine family came under the supervision of the Awa Tokushima clan family. Since then, frequent changes in the lord of Yamagata took place. Around that time in the Edo period the construction of the Akita Road (known as Ushu Kaido9 ) was completed, and Edo culture was brought into the area directly by Sankin-kotai10 (alternate attendance). Consequently, such cash crops as benibana11 (safflower) and tobacco were produced and contributed to the development of a progressive attitude in the people of Higashine (Akita City Office 2019; Higashine City 2019; Kumagai 2018). The enactment of the town and village system in 1889 (Meiji 22) resulted in the merger of six villages in the region, namely Higashine, Togo, Takasaki, Otomi, Odajima, and Nagatoro villages, bringing about the birth of Higashine-machi. Seven

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183

years later in 1896 Higashine-mura became a town. In 1954 these six municipalities (one town and five villages) were merged to become Higashine-machi, and further to a city in 1958 (Higashine City 2019; Kumagai 2018). Higashine-shi today is well-known for its cherry production, as much as 22% of all the cherry production in Japan. Various kinds of fruits are produced throughout the year such as peaches, grapes, apples, and La France pears, sometimes called “the queen of fruits.” The popular Satonishiki brand cherry had its origin in Higashine-shi, and cherry has been designated as the city flower (Higashine City 2019). According to the Yamagata Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Statistics Annual Report, the annual production of cherries in Yamagata Prefecture has been increasing continuously in recent years (2001, 22,900 million yen; and 2012, 33,200 million yen, the highest amount ever). Of the total cherry production in Yamagata Prefecture the share of Higashine-shi is outstandingly high (26–27%, while Tendo-shi is a little less at 20%, Sagae-shi still less at 15%, and Yamagata-shi, Kahoku-machi, and Murayamashi about 13% respectively) (Tohoku Regional Agricultural Administration Office 2015). According to a survey conducted by the Higashine City office of unmarried adults in Higashine-shi, as many as two-thirds (66.7%) want to marry. Major reasons for staying single were the economic uncertainties of family life (72.6%), and little opportunity for getting to know people of the opposite sex (41.4%) (Higashine City 2015a, b). It is imperative to intentionally create occasions for unmarried adults to associate with one another. At the same time, welfare programs for child rearing need to be reevaluated, and appropriate financial support must be extended to families with children.

6.4.5.2

Population Changes in Higashine-shi

Reasons for studying Higashine-shi in detail are twofold. First, as stated earlier, of all the 35 municipalities in Yamagata Prefecture, Higashine-shi is the only one that showed a population increase in the 2015 national census (47,768 people) from the previous one conducted in 2010 (46,414 people, a 2.9% increase). The increase rate ranks 122nd of all the municipalities in Japan, and the population increase was 1,503 people more than projected by IPSSR based on the 2010 census data (IPSSR 2013). Second, the projected population increase rate s of Higashine-shi for both the years 2040 (−9.4%) and 2045 (−6.3%) would be the highest in Yamagata Prefecture (refer to Tables 3.2 and 3.3 in Chap. 3) (IPSSR 2018, 2019). The population of Higashine-shi has been increasing ever since 1970 (39,113 people). As of March 1, 2019, there were 47,831 people (23,596 males, 24,236 females, and 17,580 households). It is projected to increase by the year 2020 (48,354 people), and will start to decline from around that time to 44,782 people by 2045. At the time, the average age for the people in Higashine-shi would be 50.4 years old which will be the youngest of all the 35 municipalities in Yamagata Prefecture, a 4.5-year increase from 45.9 in 2015 (Japanese average would be 53.0 years old, and Yamagata Prefecture average would be 55.1 years old in 2045). Thus, we can guess that population aging and fertility decline in Higashine-shi will progress much

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slower than other municipalities. In fact, as is found in Table 6.5, the proportion of child population for Higashine-shi in 2045 is projected to be 12.1%, and that of older adults 65 and over would be slightly more than one-third of the total population (34.9%) in Higashine-shi (refer to Table 6.5, Higashine City 2019; IPSSR 2018). As we have discussed earlier, successful fruit production in Higashine-shi contributes to the city’s economic wellbeing, which brings about a favorable situation in its population. We should also note that a relatively high proportion of the population in Higashine-shi engages in the primary industry (13.7%, in comparison to Yamagata Prefecture, 9.4%; and to Japan, 4.0%), whereas there were 31.9% in the secondary industry, and 54.4% in the tertiary industry in Higashine-shi in 2010. Higashine-shi has been developing and implementing various policies and programs to solidify industrial bases in the city since 1973. They are, for example, a land readjustment program, a residential population enhancement policy, urban infrastructure maintenance programs, construction of a high speed transportation network, research and further development of the highly productive agriculture, and promotion to the sixth sector industry.12 These efforts bring about an inflow of the working population with the child rearing generation, and result in a high birth rate (Higashine City 2019). According to the statistics published by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the average number of annual live births in Higashine-shi between 2008 and 2012 was 447, equivalent to 9.7 per 1,000 population (Japan average, 8.4 people), ranked 177th in Japan. The total fertility rate (TFR) of the same period was 1.66 ranking 291st. The marriage rate per 1,000 population was 6.2‰, much higher than the national average of 5.5‰. As pointed out earlier, the marriage power and population-sustaining power in Yamagata Prefecture is related significantly The contention is strongly validated for the case of Higashine-shi by the MHLW report and our analyses presented earlier in Table 6.4. (MHLW 2014, and see Table 6.4). In other words, the high marriage rate in Higashine-shi seems to be one of the contributing factors for an increase in population. Today, more than 60% of the people in Higashine-shi who engage in the agriculture industry are 60 years and older (Higashine City 2015a). Thus, it is a serious task for the city to interest younger people to work in agriculture. With the coming of a society that is centered around smart technology, it is imperative for Higashine-shi to revitalize the agricultural industry to meet such social changes.

6.4.5.3

Municipal Power of Higashine-shi: Innovative Child Rearing Programs

As we have witnessed, the population of Higashine-shi has been continuously growing well over the past half century. The major contributing factor for it would be the city’s active approaches in creating jobs, and the closeness between residences and the workplace (Kumagai 2018). Under the slogan of “Kosodate surunara Higashine-shi” (Should you raise children, live in Higashine-shi, the best place for child rearing) the city has implemented various pioneering policies for child rearing

6.4 Yamagata Prefecture and Higashine-shi

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prior to any other municipality in Japan. Some examples are: in 2000 a policy to provide free medical expenses for the third child in the family was implemented; in 2008, the so-called five-star program for supporting child-rearing families was enforced including the following five types of financial support (Higashine City 2015a, 2018): – – – – –

Financial support for medical examination expenses of pregnant women Free medical expenses for preschoolers Extension of holiday childcare services Free hospitalization fees for school children Free medical expenses for paternal families.

At the same time, facilities for the wellbeing of the people in Higashine-shi are gaining attention not only from the people in Higashine-shi, but also from many municipalities throughout Japan that struggle to solve the problem of fertility decline and population shrinkage. There are three facilities to pay attention to, namely Sakuranbo Tantokuru Center, Higashine Asobia Land, and Manabia Terrace (Kumagai 2018). Let us study these three facilities briefly. (1) Sakuranbo Tantokuru Center This comprehensive facility opened in April 2005 to provide health, welfare and medical programs not only for children, but also for all people in the city, run by NPO Create Higashine.13 It comprises six areas, namely child rearing support, health, welfare, medicine, sharing, and administration offices. The center was the first to obtain the environmental IOS1400114 approval in Yamagata Prefecture, and meets provisions of the Barrier Free Universal Design Act enacted on December 20, 2006.15 In ten years since the opening of the center in 2005, as many as 3.54 million people visited. In fact, the name of Tantokuru comes from “tanto” meaning “many,” in Italian and Japanese and “kuru” indicates “come to visit,” in Japanese, wishing many people would visit the center (Higashine City 2015b; MLIT 2019b; NPO Create Higashine 2019). (2) Higashine Asobia Land The second facility for children is the spacious 4.4 ha Higashine Asobia Land (outdoor playground) opened in May 2013, where children can play freely, while fostering autonomy, sociability, and creativity. The spacious playground is divided into five zones, namely a symbol zone, agricultural experience open space, adventure square, toddler plaza, and slope zone. Children learn by participating in various types of play with the assistance of play leaders. Thus, children learn to not fear making mistakes when they play, and are encouraged to learn from their experiences. Families who visit Higashine Asobia Land are not only from Higashine-shi, but also from outside (Higashine Asobia Land 2019; Higashine City 2019).

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(3) Manabia Terrace Another facility in Higashine-shi we should pay attention to is Higashine Manabia Terrace, opened on Japanese Cultural Day, November 3, 2016. It is a comprehensive cultural facility with a library of 200,000 books, a museum, and a city cultural center adopting all sorts of the most updated ICT. The meaning of “manabia” is “to learn,”; while “Terrace” signifies both “to shine” in Japanese and a place where people gather, in English. Higashine City adopted the private finance initiative (PFI)16 method, and the SPC (special purpose company) Mediagate Higashine, Co. was established to run Manabia Terrace. For 20 years after the completion of the facility the SPC will be responsible for the maintenance and management of the facility. The total project cost, including its management, amounts to 6.5 billion yen (facility maintenance cost of 3.4 billion yen), and is expected to cost 780 million yen less than if built and managed by the city of Higashine alone (Manabia Terrace 2019). Pioneering projects initiated by Higashine-shi such as Sakuranbo Tantokuru Center, Higashine Asobia Land, and Manabia Terrace definitely facilitated a social population increase in the city. In fact, the social population increase in the 2010 national census from the previous one was 1.09%, and that of 2015 was 3.47% (Higashine City 2019). Municipalities throughout Japan are keenly interested in the policies implemented, and facilities constructed in Higashine-shi. Numerous municipal officials and council members from other communities visit the city to emulate and reflect on their own population problems (Fujisawa City Council 2017). In both Aomori (Mutsu Province) and Yamagata (Dewa Province) Prefectures in the Tosando of today’s Tohoku Region, the impact of the bakuhan (shogunate and domain) appears to have had a greater effect on the people than that of GokiShichido in their making of municipal power. Under the influence of the bakuhan system clear differences between the Tsugaru and the Nanbu in Aomori Prefecture emerged. Similarly, the bakuhan system resulted in differences among Shonai, Mogami, Murayama, and Okitama Regions which are still adopted in administrative divisions in Yamagata Prefecture today. In the next chapter we will examine the municipal power of prefectures in western Japan whose population-sustaining power has been devastated for some time. Two prefectures, in particular, are Shimane in the Sannindo, and Tokushima in the Nankaido. Notes 1.

2. 3.

Marriage power of the Nanbu Region must be looked at carefully. It is because no data were available for all five municipalities in Shimokita District, four out of nine municipalities in Kamikita District, and six out of seven municipalities in Sanpachi District. Thus, in deriving the average scores for marriage power of each district, municipalities with no data available on this index were excluded. For detailed discussion on the EvaCva GPS scale as well as indices within the scale refer to Chap. 2 of this book. Ezo or Emishi is a historic term for non-Yamato people in northern Japan who did not surrender to the rule of the Yamato Imperial Court. After the Meiji era

6.4 Yamagata Prefecture and Higashine-shi

4.

5.

6.

7.

8. 9.

187

it became a synonym for “Yezo,” the lands north of the main island, Honshu, especially Hokkaido, and also Shakhalin and the Kuril Islands (Shougakukan 2019). Yoshitsune Minamoto’s Life History: Yoshitsune Minamoto was the ninth child of Yoshitomo Minamoto, the head of the Minamoto clan, born in 1159. His childhood name was Ushiwaka until the age of 16. In those days, the imperial Taira and Minamoto clans battled one another. Yoshitsune’s father was killed by the Taira clan the same year Yoshitsune was born. Therefore, Yoshitsune ran away with his mother, Tokiwa, and his two older brothers. From that point, Yoshitsune lived in Kurama temple, just north of Kyoto city, and was raised as a priest. However, he eventually refused to become a priest and left the temple in 1174. He joined forces with Yoritomo, his older brother, in an attempt to defeat the Taira clan. Yoshitsune won many battles and became a hero. However, he gradually started to act with greater authority and his brother, Yoritomo, began regarding his younger brother as an enemy. Yoshitsune escaped from his brother Yoritomo and went to Oshu, which is now the Tohoku Region of northeastern Honshu, to ask for help. However, the feudal lord of Oshu, Yasuhira Fujiwara, betrayed him. In the end, Yoshitsune killed himself at the young age of 31 (Kyoto University of Foreign Studies 2012). Kaieki is one form of punishment administered to samurai warriors. It includes loss of samurai warrior status, and reduction to the common class. Family assets and estate were all forfeited by the Edo shogunate. The punishment was lighter than seppuku (harakiri), but heavier than chikkyo (house arrest, or being confined at home). Similar to the Great Merger of Meiji, what was conducted in the Showa era is called the Great Merger of Showa. That is, in October 1953 (Showa 28) there were 9,868 municipalities in Japan. To make the administrative affairs effective it was necessary to reduce the number of municipalities throughout Japan by about one-third. Then, each town and/or village was reorganized based on a population unit of approximately 8,000. By 1961 the total number of municipalities was reduced to 3,472. This is called the Great Merger of Showa (MIAC 2016a). Refer also to Endnotes #7 and #8 in Chap. 1 for the Great Merger of Meiji, and of Showa. An alluvial fan is a triangle-shaped deposit of gravel, sand, and smaller materials called alluvium. Alluvial fans are usually created as flowing water interacts with mountains, hills, or the steep walls of canyons. Streams carrying alluvium can be trickles of rainwater, a fast-moving creek, a powerful river, or even runoff from agriculture or industry. As a stream flows down a hill, it picks up sand and other particles—alluvium. The rushing water carries alluvium to a flat plain, where the stream leaves its channel to spread out. Alluvium is deposited as the stream fans out, creating the familiar triangle-shaped feature (National Geographic Encyclopedia 2019). For an explanation of kaieki, refer to endnote #5. The Ushu kaido was one of the major roads constructed in the Edo period, and was the central road in the Tohoku Region together with the Oshu kaido. The

188

10.

11.

12.

13. 14.

15.

16.

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route of the Ushu kaido departs from Kori-machi in Fukushima Prefecture, runs to the north through Miyagi, Yamagata and Akita Prefectures, reaching as far as Aburakawa in Aomori Prefecture (Akita City Office 2019). The Sankin-kotai is a rule of the Tokugawa Shogunate formalized in 1635, whereby daimyo were required to reside in alternate years at Edo (now Tokyo) in attendance on the shogun. Its purpose was to strengthen the control of the shogun over the daimyo as it required a massive amount of funds to pursue successfully (Kodansha Ltd. 1983). The color of benibana (safflower) itself is yellow, and “beni” is the red color pigment extracted from benibana petals, which have only 1% of red pigment. Benibana is said to have its origin in the Nile River Valley of Egypt. It spread from the Middle East to India and later into China through the Silk Road, and then came to Japan in the mid-3rd century. The fine quality of beni has a brilliant gloss of an iridescent green glow with a beautiful red gradation. No other red pigment can compete with beni. Japan has a long history of fascination towards the red color. Because the color of beni is the most desired among many different shades of red color, this glorious red color is used not only for makeup but also for garments as a symbol of luck to protect women from illness in their lifetime (Isehan-Honten Co., Ltd. 2011). The sixth sector industry (rokuji sangyou in Japanese) is the development of products and markets utilizing domestically produced agriculture, forestry, and fishery products in order to promote initiatives, including those undertaken by agricultural-commercial-industrial collaborations, to promote primary producers’ diversification into processing and distribution (Nogyo Kumiai Shinbun 2006). NPO Create Higashine (http://www.higashine.org/). ISO14001 is the specification which defines the ecological management system issued in 1996 (ISO14001: https://www.env.go.jp/policy/j-hiroba/04-iso14001. html. Ministry of the Environment 2019). The name of the act in Japanese is “koureisha, shougaisha tou noidou tou no enkatsuka no sokushin ni kansuru houritsu” [the Act to facilitate the movement of older persons, and physically disabled persons] enacted by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport on December 20, 2006. http://www.mlit.go. jp/jutakukentiku/build/barrier-free.html. Accessed 5 May 2019. PFI stands for Private Finance Initiative. It is a system in which private companies build and sometimes manage large projects such as hospitals or roads, and then the government pays to use them. Companies involved with the Mediagate Higashine PFI project are Yamashita Design Co., Kajima Construction Co., Mitsubishi Electronic Co. and Yamagata Building Services (building maintenance), Library Distribution Center, and NEC Capital Solutions (factory automation (FA). (Manabia Terrace 2019).

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Kan-Shirakami Ecotourism Suishin Kyogikai (Council for Promoting the Pan Shirakami Ecotourism). (2018). Shirakami-Sanchi Ekotsuurizumu [Shirakami-Sanchi Ecotourism]. http:// www.eco-shirakami.net/. Accessed 2 Apr 2019. Kodansha, Ltd. (1983). Kodansha encyclopedia of Japan. Tokyo: Kodansha. Kyoto University of Foreign Studies. (2012). The legend of Yoshitsune Minamoto in The Kyoto Project. http://thekyotoproject.org/english/yoshitsune-minamoto/. Accessed 13 Apr 2019. Kumagai, F. (2018). Chikiryoku de Tachimukau Jinko Gensho Shakai: Chiisana Jichitai no Chiiki Saiseisaku [Declining population and the municipal power in Japan: Policies for area revitalization of small municipalities]. Kyoto: Mineruva-shobo. Kumagai, F. (2019). Stem family. In Encyclopedia of gerontology and population aging. Springer. Manabia Terrace. (2019). Manabia Terrace Homepage. https://www.manabiaterrace.jp/. Accessed 6 May 2019. Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW). (2014). Heisei 20-nen-24nen jinkodotai hokenjyo shi-cho-son betsu toukei [Vital statistics by health center, and by municipality: 2008– 2012] released February 13. https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/other/hoken14/ index.html. Accessed 3 May 2019. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication (MIAC). (2000). Kaso Chiiki jiritsu sokushin tokubetsu sochi hou [Special act for facilitating depopulated areas to become economically independent of themselves]. (Enacted on March 31, 2000 as No. 15 act, and the final modification was made on June 24, 2015 as Act No. 46.) http://elaws.e-gov.go.jp/search/elawsSearch/elaws_ search/lsg0500/detail?lawId=412AC1000000015. Accessed 31 Mar 2019. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2014). Heisei 26-nen jyumin kihondai chou ni motozuku jinkou, jinkoudoutai, oyobi setaisuu [Demographic and household statistics for the basic resident register as of 1 Jan 2014]. http://www.soumu.go.jp/menu_news/s-news/01g yosei02_02000062.html. Accessed 25 Sept 2019. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2016a). Shichouson gappei shiryoushuMeiji to Showa no daigappei no tokuchou oyobi shichouson-suu no suii [Characteristic of Great Mergers of Meiji and Showa, and changes in the number of municipalities]. http://www.soumu. go.jp/gapei/gapei2.html. Accessed 22 Apr 2019. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2016b). Shichouson no Suiihyou (Shosaiban) [Changes in the number of municipalities-Detailed list] published on October 10. http://www.soumu.go.jp/main_content/000283329.pdf. Accessed April 14, 2019. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2016c). Heisei 27-nen kokuseichousa: jinkoutou kihon shuukei kekka-Zenkoku, to-do-fu-ken, betsu jinkou oyobi setaisuuhi-cho-son [Results of 2015 national census of population and household for Japan, by prefecture and by municipality]. Released on October 26, 2016. http://tkj.jp/read/index/magazine/inaka/month/201 702/maxpage/24/pagedir/2/. Accessed 27 Oct 2019. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT). (2019a). Damu tsuurizumu [Dam tourism]. http://www.mlit.go.jp/river/dam/dam_tourism.html. Accessed 3 Apr 2019. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT). (2019b). Koureisha, shougaisha tou noidou tou no enkatsuka no sokushin ni kansuru houritsu [the Act to facilitate the movement of older persons, and physically disabled persons] enacted on December 20, 2006. http://www. mlit.go.jp/jutakukentiku/build/barrier-free.html. Accessed 5 May 2019. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) Bureau of the Tohoku Region. (2019). Iwakigawa Damu Togo Kanri Jimusho: Tsugaru damu no rekishi [Iwakigawa Dam Integrated Management Office: History of Tsugaru Dam]. http://www.thr.mlit.go.jp/tugaru/specifi/ tugaru_hispe.html. Accessed 4 Apr 2019. Ministry of the Environment. (2019). IOS14001. https://www.env.go.jp/policy/j-hiroba/04-iso 14001.html. Accessed 5 May 2019. National Geographic. (2019). Encyclopedic Entry. https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclope dia/. Accessed 22 Apr 2019. Nihon no Sato Bunka (Japanese Local Culture). (2017). Nishimeya-mura: Nihon no kyodo bunka— kagayaku chiikino bunka to chiiki no sangyo bunka [Local culture and industries of Nishimeya

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Chapter 7

People in Small Rural Municipality and on a Remote Island Connect Online to the Outside: Some Examples in Shimane Prefecture of the Sannindo and Kochi Prefecture of the Nankaido Abstract This chapter examines the municipal power of prefectures in western Japan whose population-sustaining power has been devastated for some time. Two prefectures studied, in particular are, Shimane in the Sannindo, and Kochi in Nankaido. Shimane Prefecture is in the Sannindo of the Goki-Shichido. However, we must remember the socio-cultural divisions of the three provinces in Shimane Prefecture, namely Izumo, Iwami, and Oki. Our investigations identified clear variations in municipal power through provincial differences. It is widely acknowledged that the Izumo region holds northeastern socio-cultural orientation while the Iwami region carries a southwestern socio-cultural orientation, and the Oki region is independent. This assumption has been validated in the current study by measuring municipal power in Shimane Prefecture. Furthermore, we inspected closely the municipal power of Ama-cho on Oki Islands. Under the slogan of “There is nothing that is not here,” Ama-cho seems to have modified its defensive administrative attitudes to challenges, as exemplified in the increase in employment and the Dozen High School programs. The number of I-turns between 2004 and 2015 amount to some 300 households and 400 people, of whom 70 people are in their 20s and 30s. These demographic changes tell that Ama-cho has been changing for the better in recent years. We should remember, however, the population of Ama-cho once was 7,000 in 1950, and it has been on the declining trend continuously to less than 2,400 by the year 2015, of which 40% are older adults. It is true, therefore, that the population crisis of Ama-cho has not been solved but continues to exist. What is important for the revitalization of a local remote community on an island such as Ama-cho is its determination to make decisions for pursuing the projects that they set up. Each municipality is encouraged to take its own initiative and challenge on one hand, but at the same time its seriousness and determination to revitalize the community is expected. Another prefecture suffering from population deterioration in the southwestern part of Japan is Kochi of Tosa Province, in the Nankaido. First, we analyzed municipal power across 34 municipalities within Kochi Prefecture, and found little noticeable variations within the prefecture. This is, perhaps, because Kochi Prefecture had existed as Tosa Province solely. Then, we examined Otoyo-cho, one of the most seriously depopulated municipalities in Kochi Prefecture. It is the inevitable reality that population decline in Otoyo-cho has been developing rapidly; the population today has been reduced to less than one-sixth (3,611 in 2019) from the time © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 F. Kumagai, Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4234-3_7

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when Otoyo-cho was established in 1955 (22,386). At the same time, we know that now is the time to preserve the superb natural environment surrounding Otoyo-cho. Thus, taking advantage of positive aspects of the municipal power and social capital of Otoyo-cho it is imperative to work on countermeasures for this imminent situation. For this reason, we considered three programs that have been adopted in Otoyo-cho in recent years. They are the very programs that could be pursued by the mountain rural area of Otoyo-cho, but no other place. These programs are the Otoyo Peony Society (Otoyo Shakuyaku no Kai), Otoyo Delivery Service (Otoyo Takuhai Service), and Welcome to Otoyo Immigration Project (Oideyo Otoyo Ijyu Keikaku). We discuss each project in the current chapter. Accumulation of these small but steady efforts will surely contribute to the revitalization of Otoyo-cho.

As we have witnessed earlier in this book (Chap. 3) prefectures in the western part of Japan most seriously suffer from population decline today. Projections for 2040 are Kochi (ranks 45th, −28.8% from 2010), Wakayama (42nd, −28.2%), Shimane (41st, −27.4%), and Tokushima (40th, −27.3%) (refer to Table 3.2, Chap. 3). When we looked at the population increase projections for 2045, Kochi (ranks 45th, −31.6% from 2015) Tokushima (41st, −29.2%), and Wakayama (40th, −28.6%) Prefectures again occupy the bottom layers of rankings. The projection for Shimane Prefecture (ranks 30th, −23.8% from 2015) is quite different from the other three prefectures. That is, the ranking for the population projection for Shimane Prefecture in 2045 jumped to 30th from 41st in 2040. It is worth studying what municipal power contributed to Shimane Prefecture to raise its population increase ranking. Another prefecture in the western part of Japan we study closely in this chapter is Kochi Prefecture. It is because Kochi Prefecture continues the highest population decline rate among prefectures in western Japan. Thus, its municipal power should be investigated closely. When we examine the size of the population by prefecture we found the bottom three prefectures are Tottori (550,000 people), Shimane (670,000 people), and Kochi (699,000 people) as of June 1, 2019. These three prefectures are all located in the Chugoku and Shikoku Regions (NHK News Web 2019).

7.1 Shimane Prefecture and Ama-cho 7.1.1 Profile of Shimane Prefecture: Izumo, Iwami, and Oki Regions Shimane Prefecture is located at the northern part of the Chugoku District (Chugokuchiho in Japanese) in western Honshu. It is bounded on the north by the Sea of Japan, on the east by Tottori Prefecture which leads to the Keihanshin District, on the south

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195

by the Chugoku mountains leading to Hiroshima Prefecture, and on the west by Yamaguchi Prefecture connecting to the Kyushu District. It is roughly located at the same latitude as the cities of Kyoto and/or Nagoya. The distance between the easternmost city, Yasugi, and the westernmost town, Tsuwano, is approximately 230 km, and the total coastline extends 1,027 km with 562 km of Shimane coastline and 465 km of the Oki Islands coastline (see Fig. 7.1) (Shimane Prefectural Government 2019). Izumo Region (6 municipalities) 1. Matsue-shi, 2. Izumo-shi, 3. Yasugi-shi, 4. Unnan-shi, 5. Okuizumo-cho and 6. Iinan-cho Iwami Region (9 municipalities) 7. Hamada-shi, 8. Masuda-shi, 9. Ohda-shi, 10. Gotsu-shi, 11. Kawamoto-machi, 12. Misato-cho, 13. Ohnan-cho, 14. Tsuwano-cho and 15. Yoshika-cho Oki Region (4 municipalities) 16. Okinoshima-cho, 17. Ama-cho, 18. Nishinoshima-cho and 19. Chibu-mura

Fig. 7.1 Map of Shimane Prefecture by region and municipality (8 cities, 10 towns, and 1 village = Total of 19 municipalities). Source GIS free color map, https://n.freemap.jp/st/list.html, and https:// n.freemap.jp/tp/Shimane. Accessed 8 Mar 2020. The map is drawn by the author. Note Numbers on the map correspond to those found for the name of each municipality listed under each region

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Shimane Prefecture is composed of three former provinces, as designated in the Sannindo of the Goki-Shichido: the eastern part of Izumo, the western part of Iwami, and the islands region of Oki Provinces after the Taika Reform of 645. The Izumo region is mentioned in the mythic cycles of Kojiki (712), Japan’s first chronicle, and it set the stage for Japan mythology. Of many shrines in the Izumo region, Izumo Shrine is one of the most important centers of the Shinto religion in Japan. The Iwami region is famous for its beautiful scenery as described in the poems of Kakinomoto Hitomaro in Manyo-shu1 from the 8th century. Being assigned as the provincial head, Hitomaro composed poems of the beautiful scenery of the area for his beloved wife at home. In the Oki islands region in the Japan Sea, formerly used as places of exile for political prisoners, there are many historical remains from the former capital of Kyoto, including those related to Emperor Go-Daigo, the 96th emperor of Japan who reigned from 1318 to 1332 (Shimane Prefectural Government 2019; Takemitsu 2001).

7.1.2 A Brief History of Shimane Prefecture: How the Prefecture Came About During the Kamakura period (1185–1333), the shugo jito system (system to govern provinces by military governors and their estate stewards) was established. The shugos for Izumo, Iwami, and Oki were all from the Sasaki clan of Oumi Province, Shiga Prefecture today. They settled in local areas, and became powerful zaichi ryoushu (local lords) with the authority to control farmers and fishermen in their territory by executing authority under the shoen koryo sei (system of public lands and private estates) in medieval Japan. The Iwami shugo was defeated in the Jokyu War (1221), and the local clan of Masuda became the shugo of the Iwami Province (Shimane Prefectural Government 2019). With the coming of the Muromachi era (1336–1573), the Kyogoku clan was assigned to Izumo and Oki, and the Oouchi clan to Iwami Province respectively. After the Oonin War (1467–1477), however, gekokujo (juniors dominating seniors) became the dominant trend, and shugodai (acting shugo and military governors in the Kamakura and Muromachi periods) of the Amako family of the Kyogoku clan gained power rapidly. Then, the Amako family gained such territory as the precious areas of a sand mine of Oku Izumo, and the Iwami Silver Mine. At the peak of their prosperity in the beginning of the 16th century, the Amako clan grew to be a large warlord covering both the Sannin and Sanyo regions. However, their prosperity did not last long, and the Amako clan was destroyed by Mori Motonari of Yasugi in 1566 (Shimane Prefectural Government 2019). After the battle of Sekigahara (1600), Horio Yoshiharu, assigned as the Taishu (governor-general) to Izumo and Oki Provinces, built Matsue Castle in Matsue in 1638 (Kannei 15) The grandson of Tokugawa Ieyasu, Matsudaira Naomasa moved into the castle to rule the shinpan (ruled by the direct male descendant of Tokugawa

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Ieyasu) Matsue Domain which lasted until the Meiji Restoration in 1868 (Shimane Prefectural Government 2019). The Iwami Province consisted of the silver mine of tenryo, (territory under the direct control of the Tokugawa shogunate), the Hamada Domain, and the Tsuwano Domain. The Iwami Silver Mine had its prosperous period in the first half of the 17th century, boasted of being the number one producer of silver in Japan. The lords of Hamada Domain changed frequently, and it became a shinpan Matsudaira Domain at the end of Tokugawa era. Then, the shimpan Matsudaira Domain was attacked by Choshu during the second conquest of the Choshu Expedition and uprising in 1866,2 and Hamada castle was burned down. The Tsuwano Domain was ruled by the Kamei clan, but they joined with the Choshu Domain to overthrow the shogunate in the mid-19th century (Shimane Prefectural Government 2019). As for Oki Province, it became tenryo during the Edo period, but was actually rulede by the governor of Matsue Domain for a long period of time. Consequently, in March of the Meiji Restoration in 1868, Oki disturbances and revolts of the people in the islands occurred (Shimane Prefectural Government 2019). As seen in the historical development of these three provinces, the area came under the control of a succession of warrior families from the latter part of the Heian period (794–1185) to the Edo period (1600–1868). After several stages of complicated processes, Izumo, Iwami, and Oki Provinces were finally incorporated into the modern prefectural system as Shimane Prefecture in September 1881 (Meiji 5) (Shimane Prefectural Government 2019). Even though the three provinces of Izumo, Iwami, and Oki were incorporated into Shimane Prefecture, it seems as if each of them maintains its own characteristics and history and carry on their own culture today.

7.1.3 Municipalities in Shimane Prefecture by Region Based on the historical development of Shimane Prefecture, we learned that the prefecture today is distinctively divided into three, i.e., the Izumo region on the northeast, the Iwami region on the southwest, and the Oki islands region in the Japan Sea (see Fig. 7.1). Thus, it would be worthwhile to examine if these contentions are scientifically validated by the population-related indices. Of the 19 municipalities in Shimane Prefecture today (8 cities, 10 towns, and 1 village), the region and municipalities belonging to each are shown below (For the location of each municipality, refer to Fig. 7.1). Izumo Region (6 municipalities) Matsue-shi, Izumo-shi, Yasugi-shi, Unnan-shi, Okuizumo-cho and Iinan-cho (Higshiizumo-cho, and Hikawa-cho found on Fig. 7.1 were merged into Matsue-shi, and Izumo-shi in 2011, respectively.)

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Iwami Region (9 municipalities) Hamada-shi, Masuda-shi, Ohda-shi, Gotsu-shi, Kawamoto-machi, Misato-cho, Ohnan-cho, Tsuwano-cho and Yoshika-cho Oki Region (4 municipalities) Okinoshima-cho, Ama-cho, Nishinoshima-cho and Chibu-mura.

7.2 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power of Shimane Prefecture: Izumo, Iwami, and Oki Provinces of the Sannindo 7.2.1 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power of Shimane Prefecture by Region The municipal power of household type, marriage power, population-sustaining power, and projected population increase rates from 2015 to 2045 of Shimane Prefecture are compared and contrasted by region and district (see Table 7.1). Looking at generational family households in 2015, we notice that the average rate for Shimane Prefecture (22.28%) is much higher than the Japan average proportion (13.29%), and that of the Izumo region (33.67%) is even higher. However, the proportion for Matsueshi (19.01%), the capital of Shimane Prefecture, which belongs to the Izumo region, significantly deviates from the regional average. In fact, social population increases of Matsue-shi in recent years have been witnessed and revealed that younger adults with families are moving into the city from outside the Izumo region, and outside Shimane Prefecture as well (Matsue City Municipal Office 2018). Hence, the proportion of traditional generational family households in Matsue-shi does not resemble other municipalities in the Izumo region. Nevertheless, we observe a distinct regional or provincial impact on the proportion of generational family households in 2015 in municipalities in Shimane Prefecture. In fact, when we arranged distributions of the generational family household proportions for all the 19 municipalities in Shimane Prefecture in descending order, the top five municipalities all belong to the Izumo region (the highest of Okuizumocho, 42.55% to the lowest of Izumo-shi, 30.50%), and Matsue-shi of Izumo region (19.01%, ranks 13th of 19 municipalities) fell far below the average of the Izumo region. High rates for generational family households in the Izumo region are taken as evidence of the strong influence of the aforementioned Izumo Shrine and the Tokugawa shogunate, and also the Jomon culture which flourished in the northeastern region of Japan. To support this point, we can cite the differences in dialect among the three regions in Shimane Prefecture, namely Izumo, Iwami, and Oki dialects. Both Iwami and Oki dialects resemble that of the Kansai (western Japan) region,

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Table 7.1 Municipal power of Shimane Prefecture: By region and, Matsue-shi, Tsuwano-cho, and Ama-cho Municipality

Generational family household 2015 (%)a

Marriage power 2013 (‰)b

Population-sustaining power 2013 (%)b

Projected population increase rates 2015–2045 (%)c

Japan average

13.29

5.30

−0.19

−6.3

Shimane Prefecture average

22.28

4.24

−0.77

−23.8

Izumo Region (6 municipalities)

33.67

4.02

−1.19

−33.7

Iwami Region (9 municipalities)

21.89

3.55

−1.73

−41.3

Oki Region (4 municipalities)

11.27

3.07

−0.09

−40.2

Matsue-shi (Izumo Region)

19.01

4.78

−0.40

−14.9

Tsuwano-cho (Iwami Region)

24.40

3.20

−1.96

−51.8

Ama-cho (Oki Region)

13.75

3.39

1.81

−27.8

Sources a Statistics Bureau, MIAC (2018a, b) b MIAC (2014) c IPSSR (2018). The table is compiled and constructed by the author

while the accent of the Izumo dialect, called the Unpaku dialect, has close affinity to that of the Tohoku (northeastern Japan) region, popularly called the “zuu-zuu ben” dialect (Kumagai 2011, 2018; Takemitsu 2001; Matsumoto 1973). On the other hand, generational family household rates in the Iwami region in Shimane Prefecture today are significantly lower than their Izumo region counterparts (see Table 7.1). The average rate for the total nine municipalities in the Iwami region is 21.89%, ranging from the high of Ohnan-cho, 27.05%, to the low of Hamada-shi, 17.60%. The Iwami people are obliged to peddle fish from town to town for a living. Consequently, the people in the Iwami region are known as friendly, open-minded, and optimistic (Takemitsu 2001, 2009). The average proportion of the generational family household for four municipalities of the Oki region is 11.27%, one-third that of their Izumo region counterparts, ranging from the high of Okinoshima-cho (14.68%) to the low of Chibu-mura (6.70%). Some people in the Oki region feel it is necessary to move out of the islands to find work, and it is difficult to maintain the traditional generational family household. Hence, its low rate is observed. The municipal power of marriage power, population-sustaining power, and projected population increase rates for municipalities in Shimane Prefecture by

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region were also examined. Here again, we notice there exist clear regional differences in these indices among the Izumo, Iwami, and Oki regions. However, we observed somewhat unexpected results here, especially in the Oki region. That is, despite the fact that its marriage power is the lowest of these three regions the population-sustaining power for the Oki region is by far the highest among these regions. We suspect that somewhat unusual social population movements have been taking place in the Oki region in recent years, especially as seen in Ama-cho on Table 7.1. We will investigate this later in this chapter. With these somewhat unusual trends, we are skeptical of the existence of significant relationship between marriage power and the population-sustaining power in the case of municipalities in Shimane Prefecture. In fact, when we examined the impact of marriage power (X) on the populationsustaining power (Y) for 19 municipalities in Shimane Prefecture, no significant causal relationship was observed (Y = −0.802 − 0.112X (CMR‰), adjusted R2 = 0.041, P = 0.627). It is somewhat puzzling to see indices for the municipal power of Ama-cho, especially of its high population-sustaining power in 2013 (1.81%), but its projected population increase rates for 2045 is not so positive (−27.8%) (see Table 7.1). Although a natural population decline was observed each year, its social population increased every year from 2009 to 2016. It can be assumed that some significant socio-demographic changes have been emerging in Ama-cho in recent years, but its trend might not be projected into the future. Thus, let us examine the municipal power of Ama-cho in detail later in this chapter. We should note that the generational family household rate of Tsuwano-cho (24.40%) is high among municipalities in the Iwami region, but the population-sustaining power in 2013 is quite low (−1.96%), as is that of the projected population increase rates for 2045 (−51.8). We suspect that Tsuwano-cho will become a marginal settlement with the older adult population well over one-half of the total population in the not too distant future (see Table 7.2). These results of municipal power for Shimane Prefecture suggest that we should analyze closely factors contributing to the projected population increase in 2045 of each municipality separately, but not Shimane Prefecture as a whole.

7.2.2 Population Changes by Age Group of Shimane Prefecture, Matsue-shi, Tsuwano-cho, and Ama-cho The total population of Shimane Prefecture has been declining ever since the 1985 national census (794,629 people) to that of 2015 (694,352 people, minus 23,054 (−3.2%) people from the previous national census). Among all the 47 prefectures in Japan, the population decrease rate for the most recent five years (−3.2%) ranks 13th from the highest. However, the total population of Shimane Prefecture, in fact, is 7,247, 1.1% more than what was projected by IPSSR based on the 2010 national census. Based on the 2015 national census, the projected population for Shimane Prefecture in 2045 would be 529,000, (−23.8.0% from the population in 2015, see

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Table 7.2 Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Shimane Prefecture, Matsue-shi, Tsuwano-cho, Ama-cho Japan

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

23.9

23.5

18.2

14.6

13.2

12.5

11.5

10.8

10.7

Working population 15–64

69.1

67.4

69.7

68.1

63.8

60.8

58.5

56.4

52.5

Older adults 65+ population

7.0

9.1

12.1

17.4

23.0

26.6

30.0

32.8

36.8

Old-Olds 75+ population

2.1

3.1

4.8

7.1

11.1

12.8

17.8

19.6

21.4

Shimane Prefecture

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

21.3

18.4

14.7

12.9

12.6

11.9

11.3

11.2

Working population 15–64

65.0

63.3

60.5

58.0

55.0

52.1

51.7

49.2

Older adults 65+ population

13.7

18.2

24.8

29.1

32.5

36.0

37.0

39.5

5.3

7.7

11.3

16.6

17.7

21.6

24.1

23.9

Old-Olds 75+ population Matsue-shi

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

23.3

18.7

15.3

13.7

13.2

12.2

11.6

11.6

Working population 15–64

67.1

67.1

65.0

61.8

58.7

55.9

54.2

51.0

Older adults 65+ population

10.6

14.2

19.7

24.6

28.2

31.9

34.2

37.4

4.0

5.9

8.5

13.1

14.5

19.0

21.3

22.5

Old-Olds 75+ population Tsuwano-cho

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

18.1

16.5

12.3

9.1

8.7

8.9

9.2

9.9

Working population 15–64

63.9

59.7

53.6

49.3

46.0

40.7

41.9

41.8

Older adults 65+ population

18.0

23.8

34.0

41.6

45.3

50.4

48.9

48.4

6.9

10.7

15.9

25.2

27.4

31.6

35.7

32.2

Old-Olds 75+ population Ama-cho

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

18.5

16.5

12.4

10.5

10.5

13.5

13.3

13.3

Working population 15–64

60.6

56.8

51.5

50.6

50.5

45.0

48.7

49.2

Older adults 65+ population

20.9

26.6

36.1

38.9

39.0

41.5

38.0

37.5

8.8

11.6

17.4

23.7

22.3

24.6

27.3

22.9

Old-Olds 75+ population

Sources For 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2015 National Census; for 2025, 2035, and 2045 IPSSR (2018). The table is compiled and constructed by the author

Table 3.3 in Chap. 3) (IPSSR 2013, 2018; MIAC 2016). It should be noted, however, its projected population increase rate (−23.8%) ranks 30th of the total 47 prefectures, a significant jump from the rank of 41st for the 2040 projection based on the 2010 national census as shown in Table 3.2 in Chap. 3. It would be worth investigating why this occurred. In 2045 the average age of the people in Shimane Prefecture would become 57.2 years old, a 3.2-year increase from that of 49.5 in 2015 (IPSSR 2018). The life expectancy at birth for men in Shimane in 2015 is 80.79 years of age, 0.02 years longer than the national average, and for women 87.64 years of age, 0.63 years longer than the national average (MHLW 2017)Fertility decline and population aging in Shimane

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Prefecture will accelerate further. By 2045 the proportion of children will be 11.2%, slightly above the national average, while adults 65 and over will be nearly four out of 10 people, and old-olds 75 and over will be nearly one quarter of the total population in Shimane Prefecture (see Table 7.2). Projections for population increase rates by municipality in 2040 in Shimane Prefecture are presented by way of the GPS G-Census geographic tool. Although no outstanding regional division for the projected population increase rate could be observed, we can identify some tendencies for regional variations. That is, municipalities in the Izumo region are less severely hit by the projected population decrease, except for Okuizumo-cho (see Figs. 7.1 and 7.2). It seems as if the population decline would be more serious in Iwami and Oki regions than Izumo. In the Iwami region, however, Hamada-shi is doing far better than other municipalities, while Tsuwano-cho, and Kawamoto-cho are suffering from the population decline seriously. As for the Oki region, population decline for four municipalities is in a critical situation. However, we noticed some unexpected population movement in Ama-cho. That is, the projected population of Ama-cho by age group is somewhat opposite to the general trend: the child population increases, while the projected proportion for both older adults and the old-old population decreases by 2045. In addition, we should also pay close attention to the projection for the working population of Amacho that turns to an increasing trend from 2025 onward (see Table 7.2). It is likely that some significant changes in the demographic situation have been occurring in Ama-cho, which would give some positive impact on the population trend. We will investigate in detail on the municipal power of Ama-cho later in the section. Matsue-shi, being the capital of Shimane Prefecture, with a population of 206,230 people in 2015, is the largest of the total 19 municipalities, and its overall pattern of population distribution by age group resembles the national average, and Shimane Prefecture as well (see Table 7.2). The projected population decrease of Matsue-shi in 2045 from 2015 would be −14.9% (see Table 7.1), and is much smaller than the Shimane prefectural average (−23.8%). On the other hand, as we have witnessed earlier, the projected population decrease of Tsuwano-cho in 2045 (−51.8%) is critical, as is its population aging. By 2015, Tsuwano-cho would be a marginal settlement for its older adult population, but its projected proportion will ease a little bit afterward. It is a relief to notice, however, that the projected proportions for child population in Tsuwano-cho would be increasing. We must note, however, the proportion for the working population in Tsuwano-cho dropped below half of the entire population in 2010, and is projected to continue to decline (see Table 7.2). In other words, revenue would be limited, and welfare costs for older adults would increase. Let us, therefore, look at the socio-economic aspects of municipal power of Matsue-shi, Tsuwano-cho, and Ama-cho to understand the present state of these municipalities.

7.2 Household Type, Marriage Power …

203

Fig. 7.2 Projected population increase rates by municipality for Shimane Prefecture: 2010–2040. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020

7.2.3 Radar Chart of Shimane Prefecture: Matsue-shi, Tsuwano-cho, and Ama-cho Let us examine the EvaCva radar chart using 14 socio-economic indicators in Shimane Prefecture for these three municipalities, i.e. Matsue-shi, Tsuwano-cho, and Ama-cho (see Fig. 7.3). For an explanation of EvaCva, please refer to Chap. 2 on Methodology.

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Fig. 7.3 Shimane Prefecture radar chart: Matsue-shi, Ama-cho, Tsuwano-cho. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. https://evacva.net/app/?lang= en&radar_dataset=default. Accessed 11 July 2018. Note Score for “0” indicates that no data is available for the index

It is clear to see three distinctively different patterns in the radar chart among these three municipalities. Of all 19 municipalities in Shimane Prefecture where population decline progresses, Ama-cho of the Oki region seems to be doing best in sustaining the population. Overall rating for Ama-cho is 41st of all the, 1,742 municipalities in Japan. In fact, the social population growth rate (91.89) ranks 8th of the total 1,741 municipalities measured. However, in the radar chart we notice a sharp bump in the finance index of Ama-cho, which is 1,696th of all the 1,718 municipalities measured on the index (There was no data for the municipal GDP index for Ama-cho, hence its score is zero.). It is puzzling to observe that despite the high employment index (ranks 20th of the 1,742 municipalities) other economic indicators are not as positive. Together with the extremely high rate for social population growth, and the high employment rating, we can imagine some unusual socio-economic changes affecting its municipal power have been occurring in Ama-cho in recent years. We will examine this in detail later. Now, let us study in detail the municipal power of Tsuwano-cho of the Iwami region in Shimane Prefecture. As we have pointed out earlier, the population projection of Tsuwano-cho shows that it will be a marginal settlement by the year 2025 (see Table 7.2). Furthermore, its projected population decrease rate (−53.0% for the 2040 projection) is one of the worst in Shimane Prefecture (see Table 3.2 in Chap. 3). In examining the radar chart of Tsuwano-cho, we notice two indices, in particular are critical, namely the natural population growth which ranks 1,671st, and the wealth ranking at 1,595th of the 1,742 municipalities measured for both indices. Their child welfare ranks as high as 99th, but it does not seem to attract the family

7.2 Household Type, Marriage Power …

205

rearing generation. Perhaps the low level of wealth makes it difficult to raise children. Consequently, population decline progresses rapidly. It is urgently requested to provide some effective measures to overturn the population decline in Tsuwano-cho. Concerning the radar chart for Matsue-shi of the Izumo region, we notice that most of the indices rank about the top one-third to the middle of the total municipalities in Japan, except for the security index which ranks 1,214th of 1,742 municipalities measured. As we discussed earlier, Matsue-shi, the capital of Shimane Prefecture, has the largest population of the 19 municipalities in the prefecture. The people in the city of Matsue may be indifferent and treat others as strangers, which may explain the low level of security in the city (Security for Tsuwano-cho ranks 225th, and for Ama-cho, 80th, see Fig. 7.3). As is discussed in the above, both the G-Census GPI mapping and the EvaCva radar chart for Ama-cho present some unique features of socio-demographic characteristics. Therefore, we are prompted to examine the municipal power of Ama-cho of the Oki region in Shimane Prefecture.

7.3 Municipal Power of Ama-cho: “There Is Nothing that Is Not There” 7.3.1 An Overview of Ama-cho Oki Shoto (the Oki Islands) lie in the Sea of Japan approximately 50–60 kms north of the Shimane Peninsula. They consist of some 180 islands, although only four are inhabited: the three islands of Dozen on the west consisting of Nakanoshima with Ama-cho, Nishinoshima with Nishinoshima-cho, and Chiburi-shima with Chibumura, plus the eastern part of Dogo-shima with Okinoshima-cho. These inhabited islands are hilly, with little level land. Ama-cho is located on the small island of Nakanoshima with only 33.46 km2 in area, 89.1 km in circumference, and is the sole municipality on the island (Ama Town Office 2008, and see Fig. 7.1). The countryside of Ama-cho is blessed with paddy fields of approximately 100 ha, which produce enough to feed the people in three of the inhabited islands of the Oki. Of these three inhabited islands, Nakanoshima is the only island with paddy fields. The paddy fields are supplied by the abundant water springing up from the hillside, and the people drink underground water, not relying on dams at all (Community Travel Guide Editorial Board 2012). Ama-cho is a self-sufficient semi-agricultural and semi-fishing island where people can enjoy the richness of the sea under the influence of the Tsushima Warm Current, similar to the Gulf Stream on America’s Atlantic coast. Furthermore, there is abundant spring water and a waterfall that was selected as one of the 100 famous waterfalls in Japan (Ama Town Office 2008). A mokkan (wooden plate), stating that Ama-cho presented dried abalones to the imperial court was excavated from the Heijo-kyo (ancient name of Nara) site. It

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signifies that ancient Ama-cho was regarded as one of the Mike-tsu-kuni3 provinces in Japan during the Nara period (710–794) (Ama Town Office 2008). Under the Ritsuryo code, there are three levels of punishment by exile (sanru literally means three exile places). On-ru (exile to a remote location) was for the most serious criminals. The Oki Islands were designated as On-ru islands in 724 by Emperor Shomu. It was the exile location for such high-ranking people as emperors, aristocrats, and officers. It was regarded as a less serious punishment than execution by decapitation, but more serious than banishment. The Oki Islands were selected as On-ru for two reasons. First, the place was far from Nara, then the capital of Japan. Second, it also allowed the exile to still live a normal life. There was no danger that the politically high-ranking exile would starve, or face other dangers. The Oki Islands, being surrounded by the sea with plentiful food, and rich in history, there was no concern for the danger of everyday lives. Among the people who were punished by On-ru to the Nakanoshima of the Oki Islands were such prominent people as Emperor Gotoba, Emperor Godaigo in the Kamakura period (1185–1333), and the poet Ono no Takamura in the Heian period (794–1185) (Oki Islands UNESCO Geopark Promotion Committee 2013). These prominent people brought a sophisticated culture with them to the island, and therefore, an abundance of valuable cultural heritages are kept on the island today. At the same time, receiving these high ranking people under On-ru cultivated the cultural climate of accepting and welcoming people from outside, the so-called “I-turn”4 where people move from urban regions to rural regions to work in contemporary Japan (Zenkoku Cho-son Kai 2015). In 1904 (Meiji 37) the village of Ama was established, and on January 1, 1969 the town system was enforced to become Ama-cho. The population decline in Ama-cho progressed for some time, but began increasing in 2012 (Ama Town Office 2017).

7.3.2 Population Changes in Ama-cho Until recently Ama-cho had long struggled with problems of depopulation, fertility decline, and population aging, and relied on public relief for survival. There was a fear the island would become an uninhabited island. With the slogan of “there is nothing that we do not have,” the people started to study their issues, and regarded them as municipal power, i.e., the minus social capital, to be resolved for their independence from public relief. Such positive attitudes and a challenging spirit of the people in Ama-cho has attracted people from outside the island. Consequently, a social population increase has been observed since 2009 (Ama-cho Town Office 2015; Zenkoku Cho-son Kai 2015). Thus, let us examine the population changes and municipal power of Ama-cho which could be emulated by other municipalities suffering from population decline. When the first national census was conducted in Japan in 1920, the population of Ama-cho was 5,478, and it hit its high point of 6,986 in 1950. It declined to 2,353 in 2015 (−0.9% from the previous national census in 2010), and 1,057 households (+0.5% from 2010). The most recent vital statistics

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published by the town office show the population of Ama-cho as 2,266 (1,075 males, and 1,191 females) with 1,181 households in May 2019 (Ama Town Office 2019). The total population of Ama-cho in 2015 (2,353 people, −21 people (−0.9%) from its 2010 counterpart) is 160 people more (7.3%) than what was projected by the IPSSR study (IPSSR 2013). However, a further population decline is projected to 1,698 (−27.8% from the population in 2015) by the year 2045. At that time, the average age for people in the town would be 52.3 years old, 0.2 years younger from that of 2015. In examining changes in the population we notice a somewhat unusual pattern in Ama-cho. That is, despite the declining trend of the population itself, proportions for both the child and the working population are projected to increase. This coincides with the radar chart rankings for Ama-cho that we discussed earlier. That is, the social population increase rate for Ama-cho is unusually high (ranks 8th of the entire 1741 municipalities in Japan), but the natural population increase rate is quite low (ranks 1,306th). In other words, the people in the younger adult generation with families are moving into Ama-cho, but not so much the older adult generation (see Table 7.2, and IPSSR 2018). The life expectancy at birth for Ama-cho is higher than the national average for both men and women. According to the recent statistics published by the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare in 2018, they are 81.0 years for men (0.2 years higher than the national average), and 87.7 years for women (0.8 years higher than the national average) in 2015 (MHLW 2018). According to the statistics published by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the average number of annual live births in Ama-cho between 2008 and 2012 was 13, equivalent to 5.7 per 1,000 population (Japan average: 8.4 live births), and ranked 1,367th in Japan. The total fertility rate (TFR) for the same period was 1.64 and ranked 326th. The marriage rate per 1,000 population was 3.2‰ (Japan average: 5.5‰), much lower than the national average. As was pointed out earlier, the marriage power and population-sustaining power in Shimane Prefecture is not significantly different among the individual communities. It seems to be true for Ama-cho, too, as we pointed out in our analyses presented earlier in Table 7.1. In other words, the high population-sustaining power in Ama-cho seems to be derived from other than its marriage power (MHLW 2014, and see Table 7.1). Thus, let us now examine the municipal power of Ama-cho.

7.3.3 Municipal Power of Ama-cho: “There Is Nothing that Is Not There” (1) Negative Municipal Powers of Ama-cho Ama-cho entails in itself three serious negative municipal powers. First is the geographic handicap of the town being on a remote island. The only transportation between the town and Shimane Prefecture on Honshu island is high speed ferry boats. However, the strong northwestern seasonal wind during the winter means the

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ferry is frequently cancelled. It is expected of the people of Ama-cho that this negative municipal power be turned into their asset (Ama Town Office 2008, 2015, 2017, 2019; Zenkoku Cho-son Kai 2015). The second negative municipal power of Ama-cho is its progressive depopulation, and its extreme level of fertility decline and population aging. Due to the lack of employment opportunities, educational and medical facilities, a majority of the people leave the island after completing high school. The fact that the younger adults leave the island, and a declining trend in the natural population increase rate are regarded as negative municipal powers of Ama-cho (Ama Town Office 2017). Third, the financial deterioration of Ama-cho needs to be pointed out as negative, but the municipality has taken advantage of the Remote Islands Development Act No. 72 of 1953,5 to construct social capital through public business. As a consequence, the lives of people in Ama-cho have improved to some extent. On the other hand, however, the local bond balance has inflated far beyond the local financial strength, and the town was heavily in debt (10.2 billion Japanese Yen). Therefore, the financial failure of the town has been expected to come sooner or later (Ama Town Office 2017). In light of these three negative municipal powers, the Ama Town Office analyzed its financial standing to find that the town would drop into the red by 2002. In order to solve the situation, the Ama Town Office derived the “Third Phase of Comprehensive Promotion Planning—the Declaration for the Kinnya Monnya6 ” in 1999. The people of Ama-cho made a wish to the Kinnya Monnya for their financial revitalization. At the same time, a community participation plan for the independence of the town was established, for administrative reforms to reduce labor costs, and turn to child care and/or settlement promotion measures. The town of Ama regarded itself as a development strategist for industrial promotion. Results of this promotional planning materialized in “shima narade wa no mono zukuri to hito zukuri” (producing products and the people unique to the island of Ama-cho) (Ama Town Office 1999, 2015, 2017). In other words, a clear understanding of the negative municipal power in fact equals recognition of municipal power which could be developed into a positive municipal power instead. (2) “There Is Nothing That Is Not Here” and Where There is a Will There is a Way “There is nothing that is not here” (Naimono wa nai in Japanese) could be interpreted as “all that we need is here” or “with our wisdom we can do what we need to do.” As we have studied earlier, being surrounded by sea, Ama-cho is blessed with various kinds of seafood, and high quality spring water enabling the people to be self-sufficient in rice production and other agricultural products. Thus, the people in Ama-cho enjoy what they have already, rather than lamenting what they do not have. “There is nothing that is not here” paradoxically means that “we have everything here already.” (Ama Town Office 2017; Community Travel Guide 2012). In Ama-cho it has long been the habit of eating curried rice with sazae (turban shell mollusk) rather than meat as most others in Japan do. This eating habit of Ama-cho is sometimes regarded as a somewhat strange local food culture. When it was pointed

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out by a young I-turn person that it might be seen as positive to the Ama Town Office, the town took the initiative through its Product Commercialization Program in 1998. Today, curried rice with turban shell is sold widely throughout Japan under the name Shimajya joshiki sazae karee! (In Ama-cho it’s common sense to have turban shell in curried rice!) (Community Travel Guide 2012). Ama-cho introduced the Cells Alive System (CAS)7 to preserve the freshness in its abundant seafood in 2004 (ABI Inc. 2012; Owada 2001; Owada and Saito 2009). Owing to the successful introduction of CAS in Ama-cho, marketing for such frozen seafood as white squid, Iwagaki oyster, and turban shell has been broadened to the greater Tokyo regions and even abroad (Community Travel Guide 2012). With the introduction of these unique ideas and modern ICT, employment opportunities on the island have been enhanced. Consequently, an inflow of young I-turn adults has been on the rise, to as many as ten percent of the total population of Ama-cho today (Ama Town Office 2017). (3) Dozen High School and Human Development Human development programs of Ama-cho have gotten wide attention, especially the one called “Make Dozen High School Attractive.” As mentioned earlier, the Dozen Islands consist of three islands, Nakanoshima, Nishinoshima, and Chiburijima (see Fig. 7.1), and Dozen High School is the only high school on these three islands (Dozen High School 2019; Yamauchi et al. 2015; Watanabe 2014). Due to an acute decline in the student body the Dozen High School was on the verge of closing in 2009, when there were less than 30 students in each year’s class. Thus, it was assumed that the high school would be merged into one on the mainland of Honshu sooner or later. At that time, an I-turn person, who used to work for a human resource development section of a leading Japanese corporation, proposed a program to bring students from off-island. He argued that young people from urban regions should have the experience of learning in an island environment. Since the launch of the project, 10–20 students from outside the island have entered the high school each year, enabling it to stay open. Consequently, the total student body increased significantly, from 89 students in 2008 to 179 in 2018, consisting of 94 from within the Dozen Islands, and 85 from outside. Students came from throughout Japan, as many as 31 prefectures, from Hokkaido to Kagoshima, and 10 students from six foreign countries, i.e., the United Arab Emirates, Bhutan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. Due to the success in the Dozen High School program, the Ministry of Education approved an increase in the size of the entering student class each year from 40 in 2008 to 80 in 2014, unusual for a high school on an isolated depopulated island (Dozen High School 2018). The Dozen High School curriculum includes a program to study abroad, and 40% of the student-body takes advantage of it every year. The total number of its faculty is 37, with six as coordinators. In addition, a special lecture series by former top-class corporate workers, and I-turns who graduated from topnotch Japanese universities is offered. The great majority of the students aim at advancing to major universities (Dozen High School 2018).

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Ama-cho has also been developing a comprehensive program, from nursery through secondary school. In other words, education in Ama-cho has been regarded as both an island of child rearing, and for human development (Ama Town Office 2015, 2017, 2019). It is hoped, therefore, that these programs and ideals aid the social population increase by young people of the UI turns would be here to come in Ama-cho. (4) Internet Communication and Technology (ICT) The Internet Communication and Technology network has been well developed in Ama-cho. A fiberoptic network was set up throughout Ama-cho in 2010 under the “Ama Network,” not commonly seen in a remote island. Thus, the people on the island are well connected both within and outside. When school ferries are cancelled, students are still able to receive lectures via the distant education network. Furthermore, Dozen High School students exchange communication with those in other prefectures. In addition, such information as administrative matters of the town are sent to each household via the two-way communication system. Thus, the people feel that they are well connected with each other and the town (Ama Town Office 2019). Under the slogan of “There is nothing that is not here,” Ama-cho seems to have achieved a change from its defensive administrative attitudes to challenging ones, as exemplified in the increase in employment and the Dozen High School programs. The number of I-turns between 2004 and 2015 amounted to some 300 households and 400 people, of whom 70 people are in their 20s and 30s. These demographic changes show that Ama-cho has been changing for the better in recent years. We should remember, however, the population of Ama-cho was 7,000 in 1950, and it has been declining continuously to less than 2,400 by the year 2015, in which 40% are older adults. It is true, therefore, that the population crisis of Ama-cho has been improved but not solved. What is important for the revitalization of a local remote community on an island such as Ama-cho is its determination to make decisions for pursuing the projects they set up. Each municipality is encouraged to take its own initiative and challenge on one hand, at the same time its seriousness and determination to overcome the community revitalization is expected.

7.4 Kochi Prefecture and Otoyo-cho of Tosa Province on the Nankaido 7.4.1 A Profile of Kochi Prefecture Kochi Prefecture (formerly Tosa Province) is located in the southern part of Shikoku which literally means four provinces, bounded by Ehime Prefecture (Iyo Province) to the northwest, Tokushima Prefecture (Awa Province) to the northeast, Kagawa Prefecture (Sanuki Province) to the north, and the Pacific Ocean to the south. The Shikoku Mountain Range which runs across the Shikoku islands separates Kochi

7.4 Kochi Prefecture and Otoyo-cho of Tosa Province on the Nankaido

211

Prefecture from the other three prefectures. The total area of Kochi Prefecture is 7,104 km2 , the largest of four prefectures in Shikoku, and the 18th largest area of the 47 prefectures in Japan. Forests consist of as much as 84% of the total area of Kochi Prefecture. The terrain consists of the Ishizuchi Mountains, with small level areas connected along rivers. A long coastline faces the Pacific Ocean, the rias coast on the west, and the coast of elevation with flat sandy beaches on the east. It has a mild climate, but fierce typhoons attack the prefecture several times a year, resulting in the unique natural and spiritual features of Kochi Prefecture (Kochi Prefecture 2014). Due to the warm and humid climate, subtropical plants such as Akou (Japanese sea fig tree, bonding tree), and Belou (Chinese fan palm), which grow in the coastal scenery of the Cape Ashizuri (the main attraction of Ashizuri-Uwakai National Park), and the Cape Muroto-misaki areas. Agriculture is the main occupation, and the Kochi plain is one of the few places in Japan that permits harvesting of two rice crops annually, and various vegetables grown in greenhouses. Forestry and fishing are also important industries of the prefecture. However, apart from woodworking and papermaking which draw on the prefecture’s abundant lumber resources, there is very little industry. Kochi Prefecture is also known as a center for the breeding of fighting dogs (Kochi Prefecture 2014). Perhaps due to the severe climate the people in Kochi Prefecture fostered in themselves a unique personality to survive its difficulties. The unique temperament of a man in Kochi is called Iggoso, and a woman, Hachikin (Sanseido 2019). Iggoso can be translated as a stubborn man who never compromises, does not listen to others, and decides matters by himself. On the other hand, Hachikin is a typical Kochi woman: active, lively, and with a refreshing temperament. An Iggoso man and a Hachikin woman get along well, because they are straightforward and independent of each other, but compromise when it is necessary (Kochi Prefecture 2014; Sanseido 2019; Takemitsu 2001).

7.4.2 A Brief History of Kochi Prefecture Kochi Prefecture was known as Tosa Province under the ancient Goki-Shichido provincial system. The unification of Tosa Province came at the end of the Sengoku era (the Warring States Period in Japan) due to the autonomous personality of the people in Tosa, and the geographic isolation of each region in Tosa as well. During the Sengoku period (1467–1568) it came under the control of several warrior families, and the Chosokabe and Motochika clans took control and unified Tosa Province in 1574. The Chosokabe clan warriors were called Ichiryo gusoku.8 In peacetime, they lived as farmers engaged in working the land, but once they were mobilized by the feudal lord Chosokabe, they were supposed to respond at once with ichiryo (one set) of gusoku (weapon, armor). The troops of Ichiryo gusoku were strong enough to overtake the entire region of Tosa Province by 1574. Chosokabe Motochika, the leading powerful Ichiryo gusoku, unified the Shikoku region, but the territory was reduced to only Tosa Province due to the Shikoku Conquest by Toyotomi (then

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Hashiba) Hideyoshi in 1585. At the Battle of Sekigahara in 1600 the Chosokabe clan joined the Western camp, and was defeated. Consequently, the Chosokabe clan lost its land, and Tosa had to accept a new daimyo, Yamauchi Kazutoyo of the Tozama Daimyo,9 non-hereditary daimyo of the Tokugawa shogunate family. The Yamauchi clan suppressed them and put what remained of the Chosokabe corps, including Ichiryo gusoku, under its control, giving them the rank of goshi (country samurai), which was a rank below that of a joshi (upper-level feudal retainer of a daimyo) . (Kochi Prefecture 2014; Takemitsu 2001). In the latter part of the Edo period (1600–1868) samurai warriors from Tosa, such as Sakamoto Ryoma and Nakaoka Shintaro, were prominent in the movement to overthrouw the Tokugawa shogunate. At the time of the Meiji restoration, Itagaki Taisuke took the initiative for the Movement for Civic Rights and Freedom in the 1880s, and Jiyu wa Tosa no sankan yori (freedom comes from the mountains of Tosa) became a popular phrase among the Japanese people. Furthermore, it produced many great people such as explorer Nakahama John Manjiro, philosophers Nakae Chomin and Kotoku Shusui, businessman and founder of Mitsubishi, Iwasaki Yataro, and scientists Makino Tomitaro and Terada Torahiko. The prefecture’s present name of Kochi dates from 1871, and the current boundaries were established in 1880. Since the ancient period to the end of the Edo era, Tosa Province existed by itself without being divided, and changes to Kochi regional variations within the prefecture were not observed to any significant degree (Kochi Prefecture 2014; Kodansha Ltd. 1983; Takemitsu 2001).

7.5 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power of Kochi Prefecture: Tosa Province of the Nannkaido As we have mentioned at the beginning of this chapter, the population of Kochi Prefecture ranks 45th, the third smallest of the 47 prefectures in Japan (the bottom three prefectures are Tottori (550,000 people), Shimane (670,000 people), and Kochi (699,000 people) as of June 1, 2019 (NHK News Web 2019). Thus, the population density of Kochi Prefecture is very low (107.6 people/km2 ).

7.5.1 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining Power of Kochi Prefecture by Region Of the 34 municipalities in Kochi Prefecture, we chose three for detailed studies, namely Kochi-shi, Konan-shi, and Otoyo-cho. Kochi-shi is the capital, with the largest population in Kochi Prefecture and the highest population-sustaining power

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as well. Konan-shi has the second-highest population-sustaining power, and Otoyocho had the smallest population-sustaining power in 2013 and in its projected rates for 2045 in Kochi Prefecture (see Fig. 7.4 and Table 7.3). The municipal power of household type, marriage power, population-sustaining power, and projected population increase rates of these three municipalities are compared and contrasted from 2015 to 2045 (see Table 7.3). Looking at the generational family household in 2015, we notice that the average rate for Kochi Prefecture (14.76%) is slightly higher than the Japan average proportion (13.29%). It is City (-shi): 11 1.Kochi-shi, 2. Muroto-shi, 3. Aki-shi, 4. Nankoku-shi, 5. Tosa-shi, 6. Susaki-shi, 7. Sukumo-shi, 8. Tosashimizu-shi, 9. Shimanto-shi, 10. Konan-shi, 11. Kami-shi Town (-machi, -cho): 17 12. Toyo-cho, 13. Nahari-cho, 14. Tano-cho, 15. Yasuda-cho, 16. Motoyama-cho, 17. Otoyo-cho, 18. Tosa-cho, 19. Ino-cho, 20. Niyodogawa-cho, 21. Nakatosa-cho, 22. Sakawa-cho, 23. Ochi-cho, 24. Yusuhara-machi, 25. Tsuno-cho, 26. Shimanto-cho, 27. Otsuki-cho, 28. Kuroshio-cho Village (-mura, -son): 6 29. Kitagawa-mura, 30. Umaji-mura, 31. Geisei-mura, 32. Okawa-mura, 33. Hidaka-mura, 34. Mihara-mura

Fig. 7.4 Map of Kochi Prefecture by municipality (11 cities, 17 towns, and 6 villages = Total of 34 municipalities). Source GIS free color map, https://n.freemap.jp/st/list.html, and https://n.freemap. jp/tp/Kouchi. Accessed 8 Mar 2020. The map is drawn by the author. Note Numbers on the map correspond to those found for the name of each municipality listed

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Table 7.3 Municipal power of Kochi Prefecture, Kochi-shi, Konan-shi, and Otoyo-cho Municipality

Generational family household 2015 (%)a

Marriage power 2013 (‰)b

Population-sustaining power 2013 (%)b

Projected population increase rates 2015–2045 (%)c

Japan average

13.29

5.30

−0.19

−6.3

Kochi Prefecture average

14.76

3.29

−1.63

−31.6

Kochi-shi

9.41

5.05

−0.33

−19.6

Konan-shi

13.78

4.22

−0.38

−20.4

Otoyo-cho

12.06

1.80

−4.44

−69.8

a Statistics

Sources Bureau, MIAC (2018a, b) b MIAC (2014) c IPSSR (2018). The table is compiled and constructed by the author

surprising to observe that the rates are much lower in three of the municipalities we studied for Kochi Prefecture. Thus, we can say that the trend of traditional family households seems to be fading away in Kochi Prefecture as a whole. As we have learned from the brief history of Kochi Prefecture, it developed as Tosa Province as a whole, and therefore, there seems to be no significant pattern of regional variation within Kochi Prefecture today. When we examined the impact of marriage power (X) on the population-sustaining power (Y) for 34 municipalities in Kochi Prefecture no significant causal relationship was observed (Y = –2.290 + 0.201X (CMR‰), adjusted R2 = 0.088, P = 0.084). Although there seems to be no significant causal relationship between the marriage power and the populationsustaining power by municipality in Kochi Prefecture, the relationship between these two variables are observed on Table 7.2. That is, the higher the marriage power of the municipality, the higher is the population-sustaining power of the municipality. Furthermore, the population-sustaining power seems to lead us to the projected population increase rates for the year 2045 in Kochi Prefecture. The projected population increase rate for Kochi Prefecture in 2045 from 2015 would be nearly one third of what it is today (−31.6%). We should note that in Otoyo-cho where the marriage power is extremely low, the projected population increase rate for 2045 is strikingly low (−69.8%). Hence, we suspect that Otoyo-cho will become a marginal settlement with the older adult population well over one-half of the total population in the not too distant future. In fact, the municipality reached the marginal settlement state in the year 2010, and its proportion for the older adults 65 and over population in 2045 would be as high as nearly two-thirds of the entire Otoyo-cho population (63.1%, see Table 7.4 presented in the following section). These results of municipal power for Kochi Prefecture suggest that we should analyze closely factors contributing to the projected population increase in 2045 of each municipality separately, but not Kochi Prefecture as a whole.

7.5 Household Type, Marriage Power, and Population-Sustaining …

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Table 7.4 Changes in the population proportion (%) by four age groups: Japan, Kochi Prefecture, Kochi-shi, Konan-shi, Otoyo-cho Japan

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

23.9

23.5

18.2

14.6

13.2

12.5

11.5

10.8

10.7

Working population 15–64

69.1

67.4

69.7

68.1

63.8

60.8

58.5

56.4

52.5

Older adults 65+ population

7.0

9.1

12.1

17.4

23.0

26.6

30.0

32.8

36.8

Old-Olds 75+ population

2.1

3.1

4.8

7.1

11.1

12.8

17.8

19.6

21.4

Kochi Prefecture

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

20.9

17.6

13.8

12.2

11.6

10.5

9.8

9.7

Working population 15–64

66.0

65.2

62.7

59.0

55.5

52.7

51.4

47.6

Older adults 65+ population

13.1

17.2

23.6

28.8

32.8

36.8

38.8

42.7

5.3

7.3

10.5

15.9

17.2

22.4

25.1

25.7

Old-Olds 75+ population Kochi-shi

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

22.2

18.1

14.3

13.4

12.4

11.4

10.4

10.2

Working population 15–64

67.8

68.6

67.1

63.0

59.5

57.3

55.3

50.5

Older adults 65+ population

10.0

13.4

18.6

23.6

27.7

31.3

34.2

39.3

3.8

5.5

8.0

12.2

13.5

18.8

21.0

22.7

Old-Olds 75+ population Konan-shi

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

19.7

17.3

14.4

13.8

13.3

12.2

11.7

11.8

Working population 15–64

64.7

63.9

62.1

59.1

55.9

54.7

54.3

50.5

Older adults 65+ population

15.6

18.7

23.5

27.1

30.8

33.1

34.0

37.8

6.2

8.0

10.7

14.7

15.4

20.1

21.2

21.1

Old-Olds 75+ population Otoyo-cho

1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2025 2035 2045

Child population 0–14

14.0

11.5

8.5

5.1

4.7

5.0

4.4

3.6

Working population 15–64

64.6

58.3

47.1

40.8

39.3

33.9

33.6

33.3

Older adults 65+ population

21.4

30.3

44.5

54.0

55.9

61.1

62.0

63.1

9.1

12.2

20.6

34.4

36.3

37.7

44.1

42.3

Old-Olds 75+ population

Sources For 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2015 National Census; for 2025, 2035, and 2045 IPSSR (2018). The table is compiled and constructed by the author

7.5.2 Population Changes by Age Group of Kochi Prefecture, Kochi-shi, Konan-shi, and Otoyo-cho The total population of Kochi Prefecture has been declining ever since the 1985 national census (837,784 people); in 2015 (728,286) people, minus 36,180 (−4.7%) people from the previous national census in 2010). Among all the 47 prefectures in Japan, the population decrease rate for the most recent five years (−4.7%) ranks 45th from the highest in decline (next to Aomori, and Akita prefectures). Moreover, the total population of Kochi Prefecture, in fact, is 1,403 (0.2%) less than what was projected by the IPSSR projection based on the 2010 national census. Based on

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the 2015 national census, the projected population for Kochi Prefecture in 2045 is 500,000, (−31.6% from the population in 2015, see Table 3.3 in Chap. 3) (IPSSR 2013, 2018; MIAC 2016). It should be noted, however, its projected population decrease rate (−31.6%) ranks 45th of the total 47 prefectures, the same as for the 2040 projection based on the 2010 national census as discussed in Table 3.2 in Chap. 3. In 2045 the average age of the people in Kochi Prefecture would become 54.6 years of age, a 4.8-year increase from that of 49.8 in 2015 (IPSSR 2018). The life expectancy at birth for men in Kochi Prefecture in 2015 is 80.26 years of age, 0.51 less than the national average, and for women 87.01 years of age, the same as the national average (MHLW 2017). Fertility decline and population aging in Kochi Prefecture will accelerate further. By 2045 the proportion of child population will fall below ten percent (9.7%), much lower than the national average, while the older adults 65 and over will be above four out of 10 people (42.7%), and old-olds 75 and over will be more than one quarter of the total population (25.7%) in Kochi Prefecture (see Table 7.4). Projections for population increase rates by municipality in 2040 in Kochi Prefecture are presented by way of the GPS G-Census geographic tool. As we have indicated earlier, no outstanding regional division for the projected population increase rate could be observed in Kochi Prefecture. The projected average population increase rate for Kochi Prefecture in 2040 is −29.8%, with Konan-shi the highest (−16.4%), and Otoyo-cho the lowest (−65.3%). There are only three municipalities whose projected population increase rate for 2040 is above −30.0%. They are Konan-shi (−16.4%), Kochi-shi (−21.8%), and Nankoku-shi (−23.5%). These municipalities are, in fact, adjacent to each other and to the capital city of Kochi. The problem for the projected population decline for 2040 in remote areas in Kochi Prefecture seems to be extremely serious, and will exceed much higher than the marginal settlement level such as Otoyo-cho (−65.3%) and Muroto-shi (−60.9%) (see Figs. 7.4 and 7.5). Kochi-shi, the capital of Kochi Prefecture, had a population of 337,190 in 2015, the largest of the prefecture’s 34 municipalities. Its overall pattern of population distribution by age group resembles the national average with a smaller child population and larger older adults 65 and over population (see Table 7.4). The projected population decrease rate for Kochi-shi in 2045 from 2015 is −19.6% (−66,139 people), and is much smaller than the Kochi prefectural average (−31.6%). Consequently, the total population of Kochi-shi in 2045 would become 271,051 people, while Otoyo-cho’s 2015 population (3,962) would be reduced by nearly 70% in 2045, and is projected to become 1,195 people (see Tables 7.2 and 7.3). In addition to the critical situation of the projected population decrease in Otoyocho, it is also true for its population aging. By 2010, Otoyo-cho was in the marginal settlement level for its older adult population, and it would increase to as much as two-thirds of the total population in 2045. Moreover, of 10 older adults 65 and over as many as four would be those of the old-olds, i.e., 75 and over, by 2045. Thus, the population pyramid of Otoyo-cho in 2045 would consist of a very small child population, one-third working population, and two-thirds older adult 65 and over population (see Table 7.4). In other words, revenue would be limited, and welfare costs for older adults would increase. Let us, therefore, look at the socio-economic

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Fig. 7.5 Projected population increase rates by municipality for Kochi Prefecture: 2010–2040. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020

aspects of municipal power of Kochi-shi, Konan-shi, and Otoyo-cho to understand the present state of these municipalities.

7.5.3 Radar Chart of Kochi Prefecture: Kochi-shi, Konan-shi, and Otoyo-cho Let us examine Kochi Prefecture using the EvaCva radar chart with 14 socioeconomic indicators for these three municipalities, i.e. Kochi-shi, Konan-shi, and Otoyo-cho (see Fig. 7.6). For an explanation of EvaCva, please refer to Chap. 2 on Methodology. It is clear to see three different patterns in the radar chart among these three municipalities. Of all the 34 municipalities in Kochi Prefecture where the population decline progresses in critically rapid speed, Kochi-shi seems to be the municipality doing best in sustaining the population as far as the EvaCva Radar Chart is concerned. Nevertheless, the overall rating for Kochi-shi is 1,063rd, and Konan-shi is 1,242nd of all the 1,742 municipalities in Japan. The overall rankings of both Kochi-shi, and Konan-shi, where population decline progresses slowly, reflects the seriousness of the population decline in Kochi Prefecture. Of the 14 indices measured for Kochi-shi, the rate for hospitals (66.75) ranks 112th, the natural population growth rate (56.22) ranks 494th, and the social population growth rate (53.88) is 520th of the total 1,742 municipalities measured. However, the security rate for Kochi-shi (35.02) ranks as

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Fig. 7.6 Kochi Prefecture radar chart: Konan-shi, Kochi-shi, Otoyo-cho. Source The figure is drawn by the author using the EvaCva of Fujitsu Laboratories, Ltd. https://evacva.net/app/?lang= en&radar_dataset=default. Accessed 11 July 2018

low as 1,630th. In fact, the overall pattern of the radar chart for Konan-shi resembles that of Kochi-shi, except for two indices, hospitals (48.3 ranking, 868th), and social population growth rate (58.01, 248th). It is striking to observe that T-scores for all the economic indicators of the radar chart for Konan-shi fall below 50, and ranks above 1,000th despite its high rate on the social population growth. Now, let us study in detail the municipal power of Otoyo-cho whose pattern looks quite different from the other two municipalities. As we have pointed out earlier, the population of Otoyo-cho hit the marginal settlement level in 2010 (see Table 7.4). Furthermore, its projected population decrease rates (−65.3% for 2040, and −69.8% for 2045) are among the worst throughout Japan (as seen Tables 3.2 and 3.3 in Chap. 3). In examining the radar chart of Otoyo-cho, we notice four indices in particular are critical, namely the natural population growth (9.59) which ranks 1,738th, the wealth (36.71) at 1,724th, the social population growth (33.71) at 1,668th, and the municipal GDP ranking 1,512th of the 1,742 municipalities measured. Furthermore, we notice that other economic indicators such as revenue, finance, and employment are rated very low, and life expectancy as well. On the other hand, however, such indicators as child welfare (101.67 ranked as high as 8th), and hospitals (69.49 ranks 77th) in Otoyo-cho are extremely high. What do all of these indicators for Otoyo-cho mean? We speculate that despite the allocation of sizable funds for child welfare, the population growths, both natural and social, do not follow due to the sharp decline in both the child and the working population. All of them lead the municipality of Otoyo-cho toward the marginal settlement level.

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As is discussed above, both the G-Census GPI mapping and the EvaCva radar chart for Otoyo-cho highlighted serious features of socio-demographic characteristics. Therefore, now is the time for us to examine the municipal power of Otoyo-cho in Kochi Prefecture in detail.

7.6 Municipal Power of Otoyo-cho: Small but Effective Projects that People in the Mountain Rural Area Appreciate As we have witnessed, Otoyo-cho became a marginal settlement municipality in 2010, and has been on the verge of community extinction. Even so, however, people managed to make the best use of their surroundings, the mountains and the Yoshino River (Otoyo-Town 2015).

7.6.1 An Overview of Otoyo-cho Otoyo-cho is located at the central point of the Shikoku mountains which run through the northeast region of Kochi Prefecture, approximately 40 km east of Kochi-shi, the capital of Kochi Prefecture. It is bounded by Kami-shi to both the east and south, Motoyama-cho to the west, Chuo-shi of Ehime Prefecture and Miyoshi-shi of Tokushima Prefecture to the north (see Fig. 7.4). The Yoshino River, designated as a class A river10 by the Japanese government, runs through the center of Otoyo-cho which makes the town famous for its land-slide zone. The total area of Otoyo-cho is 315.06 km2 (32 km east to west, 28 km south to north, the vast area is equivalent to approximately half of the 23 wards of Tokyo). This immense area of the town of Otoyo today includes 85 shuraku (narrow clustered districts in which a small number of rural families reside), and of them 69 districts are marginal settlements where more than half of the people are older adults of 65 and over. The climate is humid, with annual precipitation as much as 3,000 mm. Furthermore, the average temperature throughout the year is 14 °C, with relatively cool summers, and a coating of snow in the winter (Otoyo-Town 2015). Otoyo-cho, which endures the most heavy snowfall in Kochi Prefecture, is located in a mountainous area with an average elevation of 450 m, and has little arable land area, with cultivated fields only 1.1% of the total land area. Instead, the mountain slopes are groomed with tanada (terraced paddy fields) where rice fields are arranged in a staircase pattern of a very steep slope on the mountain. The beautiful scenery of tanada is well-known for its seasonal color changes (see Fig. 7.7). Thus, people in Otoyo-cho learn to enjoy changes in the four seasons such as green paddy fields during rice-planting, the golden color of rice plants at harvest, and snow-covered white fields in the winter (Otoyo-Town 2015).

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Fig. 7.7 Tanada in Otoyo-cho, Kochi Prefecture. Source Wikimedia Commons, the free media repository, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:%E8%99%B9%E3%81%AE%E3% 81%82%E3%82%8B%E9%A2%A8%E6%99%AF_-_panoramio.jpg. Accessed 8 Feb 2020

No historical artifacts of the Jomon or Yayoi eras has been found in Otoyo-cho, and its history could be traced back from the Nara period (710–794) when the highranking Buddhist priest Gyoki built Hourakuji and Jyoufukuji temples in 724. In 797 the national road which connects the capital (the Kinai region of the Gokifive capital provinces surrounding the ancient capitals of Nara and Kyoto) and local regions was developed based on the Eki-sei transportation system, similar to the Pony Express of the early western United States. The Eki-sei transportation system being intended mainly for transmission of urgent information between the capital and local regions, ekiro (highways) from the capital and local regions and umaya (facilities for providing houses, foods, etc.) along ekiro were maintained, and informants, carrying an ekirei bell and using one of five to twenty ekiba (horses for transportation of official travelers) kept in an umaya, passed through ekiro. Kochi Prefecture had been Tosa Province and the history of Otoyo-cho more or less coincides with that of Kochi Prefecture discussed in the previous section (Otoyo-cho History Editorial Board 1987). Nevertheless, it would be significant to mention the Tajikawa Shimo Bansho (guard house), which was installed during the Edo period (1718) as the road for Sankin koutai of the Yamauchi Daimyo of Tosa. Among three bansho11 built in Tosa Province, Tajikawa Shimo Bansho was designated as honjin (the headquarters, and an inn officially designated as a lodging for a Dymyo). Thus, the system required

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Yamauchi Daimyo’s alternate-year residence, a procession in which a daimyo goes to Edo and returns to Tosa the following year (Otoyo-cho History Editorial Board 1987). As we discussed earlier, with the enforcement of the municipal system Tosa Province became Kochi Prefecture in 1871, and the current boundaries of the prefecture were established in 1880. In 1889 (Meiji 22), Otoyo-cho was divided into four villages, namely, Higashi-Toyonaga-mura, Nishi-Toyonaga-mura, Oosugi-mura, and Tenbin-mura, which lasted until 1955 when they were merged into one, Otoyo-mura (22,368 people, 4,704 households). Then, in 1972, the village became the town of Otoyo (13,504 people, 3,814 households in 1970). The population of Otoyo-cho hit its peak at the time of the merger in 1955. Ever since then, it has been on the decline continuously. Let us examine changes in the population decline in Otoyo-cho in detail.

7.6.2 Population Changes in Otoyo-cho As we have discussed in the previous section, prior to the merging of four villages into Otoyo-cho, the total population of these four villages exceeded 20,000 (23,542 in 1950). Today, it has shrunk to 3,611 people and 2,121 households as of June 30, 2019 (Otoyo-cho History Editorial Board 1987; Otoyo-Town, Resident Section 2019). Why did this extreme level of attrition in population occur? It is because of Japan’s rapid economic growth and changes in employment opportunities during the 1960s, and a population flow to central city areas. By the year 1980 the population of Otoyo-cho declined to below 10,000 (9,411), and 5,492 in 2005 (with 50.8% 65 and older, thus dropping Otoyo-cho into a marginal settlement municipality) By the time of the national census in 2015 it was reduced to below 4,000 (3,962, a reduction rate from the previous national census in 2010 of −16.0%), and a fall to 2,050 households (−11.3% from 2010). In other words, more than one out of two people in Otoyo-cho today are older adults, and the increasing rate of reduction will accelerate year by year. The population decline rate of Otoyo-cho in 2015 is the 30th highest of the total municipalities in Japan in 2015, and 126 people (3.1%) more than what was projected by the IPSSR studies. In other words, the speed of the population decline has increased (IPSSR 2013; Otoyo-Town 2019a, b). Furthermore, the population projection for Otoyo-cho in 2045 is 1,200, (−69.8% from that of 2015). This projected rate for population decline is the 18th highest of the entire 1,741 municipalities in Japan today. This coincides with the radar chart rankings for both natural and social population increase rates of Otoyo-cho, which we have discussed earlier. At that time, the average age for people in the town would be 66.8 years old, 3.7 years older from that of 2015 (IPSSR 2018). According to the recent statistics published by the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare, the life expectancy at birth of Otoyo-cho people is 79.0 for men (1.8 years shorter than the national average), and 87.0 for women (the same as the national average for women) in 2015 (MHLW 2018).

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According to the statistics published by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the average number of annual live births in Otoyo-cho between 2008 and 2012 was 13, equivalent to 2.7 per 1,000 population (Japan average: 8.4 live births), and ranked 1,731st in Japan. The total fertility rate (TFR) for the same period was 1.44 and ranked 999th. The marriage rate per 1,000 population was 2.5‰ (Japan average: 5.5‰), lower than half the national average. As was pointed out earlier, the marriage power and population-sustaining power in Kochi Prefecture is not significantly different among the communities. However, the contention seems to be true for Otoyo-cho as we pointed out in our analyses presented earlier in Table 7.3. In other words, the extremely low population-sustaining power in Otoyo-cho seems to be derived from the low level of the marriage power (MHLW 2014, and see Table 7.3). Thus, let us now examine the municipal power of Otoyo-cho.

7.6.3 Municipal Power of Otoyo-cho: Some Countermeasures for the Revitalization of Otoyo-cho It is the inevitable reality that population decline in Otoyo-cho has been developing rapidly; the population today has been reduced to less than one-sixth (3,611 in 2019) what it was at the birth of Otoyo-cho in 1955 (22,386). At the same time, we know that now is the time to preserve the superb natural environment surrounding Otoyocho. Thus, taking advantage of positive aspects of the municipal power and social capital of Otoyo-cho, it is imperative to work on countermeasures for this imminent situation. Let us consider three programs that have been adopted in Otoyo-cho in recent years. They are the very programs that could be pursued by the mountain rural area of Otoyo-cho, but no other place. They are the Otoyo Peony Society (Otoyo Shakuyaku no Kai), Otoyo Delivery Service (Otoyo Takuhai Service), and Welcome to the Otoyo Immigration Project (Oideyo Otoyo Ijyu Keikaku). Let us discuss each project briefly (Otoyo-Town 2019a, b).

7.6.3.1

Otoyo Peony Society of the Youne District

The Youne District, one of 85 districts (shuraku) in Otoyo-cho, is located in the eastern part of the town, with a population of some 80 people. The district used to be known for its beautiful scenery of tanada, terraced paddy fields (see Fig. 7.7). With population aging, however, such scenery could no longer be enjoyed as many of the fields and rice paddies were abandoned and are no longer cultivated. Then, with the cooperation of the local people and students from the Agricultural Department of the Kochi University the Otoyo-Peony Society was founded in October 2013. The aim of the society is to cultivate peonies in these abandoned fields, and to revitalize the Youne district by restoring the beautiful scenery that the people used to enjoy (Otoyo-Peony Society 2019).

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Peonies were designated a semi-endangered species by the Japanese Ministry of the Environment, fearing it was on the verge of extinction. It is because of its value as a rare and elegant flower that they have been stolen, the forest development, and/or its transplantation for the sake of the plant succession. Fortunately, however, there are masses of peonies in the Youne district of Otoyo-cho, and they are perennial plants. Therefore, it is not burdensome for older people to handle them. The Otoyo Peony Society, then, decided to be responsible for the comprehensive operation and maintenance of peonies in the district. Through the assistance of cloud funding, 1,200 peonies were planted in the fields of 3500 m2 , and chikibi (corn from mountain regions of Kochi Prefecture, not sweet but sticky), mochikibi (pilled millet), and onions have been added to cultivate and harvest (Otoyo-Peony Society 2019). What is important for the Otoyo Peony Society is not only its revitalization of the terraced paddy fields, but also the intergenerational contacts generated between the local older people and the university students. They work cooperatively to plant, cultivate, harvest, and eat while conversing. Through these activities the marginal settlement of the Youne district of Otoyo-cho has been changing to a community. It may not provide a permanent population settlement, but the depopulated community has been becoming active and revitalized by the cooperation.

7.6.3.2

Otoyo Delivery Service

The Otoyo Delivery was a service started in 2012 by Yamato Transport, the largest transport company in Japan, with the cooperation of the Otoyo Chamber of Commerce, and the Otoyo Town Office. The objective of the service is threefold, namely to assist the shopping of older adults who live in the rural mountainous regions of Otoyo-cho by delivering commodities on the same day they are ordered, to check on the well-being of the people at the time of delivery, and to revitalize local stores. In other words, this delivery service kills three birds with one stone. For older adults living in remote rural mountainous areas, driving to shopping areas in the central area of town is extremely difficult, and the cost for taxi fare is quite high, as much as 6,000 yen for a round trip. Thus, with the cooperation of these three organizations the service has grown (Otoyo-Town 2018). Residents of Otoyo-cho who use the Otoyo Delivery Service are required to buy items that cost more than 1,000 yen for each delivery with the fee for delivery service as little as 150 yen. The low fees become possible because each store that takes orders bears part of the cost, and the Otoyo Town Office issues a subsidy. This delivery service is well-appreciated by the people of Otoyo-cho. There are 121.1 requests monthly for the delivery service, at an average cost of 4,029.2 yen per delivery (Otoyo-Town 2018). The Otoyo Delivery Service has been successful in assisting people who have limited access to shopping facilities. At the same time, shopping facilities in Otoyocho welcome the service because it helps business. The service does not increase the population itself, but it contributes to the revitalization of Otoyo-cho.

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Oideyo Otoyo Immigration Project

When we discussed the radar chart of Kochi Prefecture of three municipalities, i.e., Kochi-shi, Konan-shi, and Otoyo-cho earlier, we noted the one for Otoyo-cho deviates significantly from the other two. Indices which differ significantly from other two are child welfare (ranks 8th of the 1,742 municipalities), hospitals (ranks 77th), natural population growth (ranks 1,738th), social population growth (ranks 1,668th), and wealth (ranks 1,724th) (see Fig. 7.6). As has been discussed already, the social population decrease in Otoyo-cho is critical, ever since the high economic growth in the 1960s (−613 people in 1965, −256 in 1975, and −37 in 2018). In recent years, about 120 people move into Otoyo-cho every year, while there are about 150 people who move out year). Consequently, the social population decrease becomes about −30 people or so in Otoyo-cho today (Otoyo-Town 2019a, b). Around the year 2000 five to ten people each year moved in and started to live permanently in Otoyo-cho. The trend to move from the urban region to the countryside has accelerated throughout Japan ever since the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011. The same has been happening in Otoyo-cho. A non-profit organization to assist people who wish to immigrate to Otoyo-cho, Genki (means healthy and lively in Japanese) Otoyo was founded in 2012. Since then, about 20 people have been immigrating to the town every year. Where do these immigrants come from? Many of them move into Otoyo-cho from such neighboring municipalities in Kochi Prefecture as Kochi-shi, Motoyama-cho, Tosa-cho, and Nankoku-shi. In fact, those who moved to Otoyo-cho from other municipalities in Kochi Prefecture in 2018 were nearly as many as half the total (45.4%). Full-time jobs available to newcomers are limited mostly to those in the field of nursing care, but no private organizations. Thus, people must venture capital of their own, or commute to other cities in Kochi Prefecture for work (Genki Otoyo 2019; Otoyo-Town 2019a, b). As we learned already, welfare programs for children in Otoyo-cho are highly rated. Then, what are they? Various allowances are provided for children and minors under 19 years of age, i.e., throughout the end of the fiscal year in March until the relevant individual is beyond 18 years of age. These welfare programs for children include medical costs, child welfare allowances for single parent families (for each child in the family), welfare programs for handicapped children, child care allowances for children up to the age of 15 or through junior high school, and medical cost allowances for single parent families (Otoyo Town 2019a, b). Although the number of immigrants to Otoyo-cho each year itself is small, its impact on a small municipality is too significant to ignore. The people who are attracted to a rural country life in Otoyo-cho appreciate the well-thought-out child welfare programs provided by the town. Should the trend of immigration continue in the future, we hope that Otoyo-cho is here to stay. In the next chapter, which is the concluding chapter, we will discuss three major issues for the study of municipal power and population decline in Japan. They are, what has been discovered in the current study, emerging new approaches developing in recent years, and unresolved issues and future research on the topic.

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Notes 1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

Manyo-shu, which literally means a collection of ten thousand leaves, is the oldest anthology of poems from the 8th century in Japan. The collection includes not only poems read by nobles, but ones by people of lower classes such as farmers and warriors, containing about 4,500 poems. Japanese new imperial era “Reiwa” (meaning “auspicious harmony”) is taken from Manyo-shu (Eigo de Nihon 2019). Choshu Expeditions are two punitive expeditions in 1864 and 1866 by the Tokugawa shogunate against the Choshu domain (now Yamaguchi Prefecture). For a detailed explanation, refer to Kodansha, Ltd. 1983. Mike-tsu-kuni is a province which presented “Miketsu” (foods for the emperor and the imperial family) in ancient times and lasted throughout the Heian era (794–1185) (Wakasa Obama Tourist Bureau 2019). I-turn is one of the UIJ turn phenomena used in Japan. U-turn refers to people studying or working in big cities who return to their hometowns to seek employment, I-turn refers to people who move from urban regions to rural regions to work, and J-turn signifies the people originally from the countryside who move to big cities, then move back to local cities near their hometown (Kenkyu-sha weblio Japanese-English online dictionary). Remote island regions designated as regions at which remote islands development measures are to be implemented pursuant to the provisions of paragraph (1) of Article 2 of the Remote Islands Development Act (Act No. 72 of 1953) (Ministry of Land, and Internal Transportation, https://www.mlit.go.jp/kokudo seisaku/chirit/kokudoseisaku_chirit_fr_000003.html. Accessed 23 June 2019). Kinnya Monnya is the folk song of the Oki Islands, which originated in Amacho into which the nature, culture and human feelings are all blended into one, and the people feel power for survival (Ama Town Office 1999). The Cells Alive System (CAS) is a line of commercial freezers manufactured by ABI, Inc. (http://www.abi-net.co.jp/) of Chiba, Japan claimed to preserve food with greater freshness than the usual process of freezing, by using electromagnetic fields and mechanical vibrations to limit ice crystal formation that destroys food texture. They also are claimed to increase tissue survival without having its water replaced by cryogenically compatible fluids (ABI 2012; Owada 2001; Owada and Saito 2009). The freezers have attracted attention among the food processing industry (Cheng et al. 2017). Ichiryo Gusoku was the military uniform of Chosokabe troops. Ichiryo gusoku (literally means a set of armor) was a designation for a part time soldier and farmer. Their organization, formed and managed by the Chosokabe clan, the daimyo of Tosa Province in the Sengoku period targeting on armed peasants and jizamurai (local samurai) before heinobunri (a policy to strictly separate soldiers and farmers) (Kochi Prefecture 2014). Depending on his connection to the Tokugawa Shogun family, related families (Shinpan, Shinpan Daimyo) were classified mainly as Fudai Daimyo (hereditary daimyo) that were vassals of the Tokugawa family before the Battle of

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Sekigahara, and Tozama Daimyo (non-hereditary daimyo) that became vassals around the time of the Battle of Sekigahara (Kodansha 1983). 10. In Japan, a class A river is a specified waterway of special importance for the lives of the people and for the development of industries protected by the Japanese Government (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism 2007). 11. Three bansho in Tosa Province were Tachikawa Bansho (in Otoyo-cho), Iwasaguchi Bansho (in Kitagawa-mura), and Ikegawa-guchi Bansho (in Niyodogawacho). Tachikawa Bansho was designated as Honjin (the headquarters), and was the last inn for the Yamauchi daimyo on the Tosa road (Otoyo History Editorial Board 1987; Otoyo-cho Kankou 2019).

References ABI, Inc. (2012). CAS seru araibu shisutemu—Sekai hatsu no kaihatsu ni seikou [CAS (Cell Alive System)—The first innovation successful in the world]. http://www.abi-net.co.jp/cas/mechanism. html. Accessed 24 June 2019. Ama Town Office. (1999). Daisanji sougou shinnkou keikaku—Kinnya monya no hen [The third phase of comprehensive promotion planning—The declaration for the Kinnya Monnya]. http:// www.town.ama.shimane.jp/gyosei/soshin/1010/post-8.html. Accessed 23 June 2019. Ama Town Office. (2008). Ama-cho gaiyou [An overview of Ama-cho]. http://www.town.ama.shi mane.jp/about/gaiyo/. Accessed 17 June 2019. Ama Town Office. (2015). Ama-cho sousei sougou sennryaku-jinkou bijyon [The population revitalization strategy of Ama-cho—A population vision]. 30th of October. http://www.town.ama. shimane.jp/topics/pdf/amaChallengePlan2015.pdf. Accessed 20 June 2019. Ama Town Office. (2017). Ama-cho koukyoushisetsu tou sougou kanri keikaku [Proposal for the comprehensive management planning facilities of Ama-cho]. http://www.town.ama.shimane.jp/ gyosei/2017/04/05/pdf/kannri.pdf. Accessed 17 June 2019. Ama Town Office. (2019). Koho Ama [Bulletin of Ama town], No. 482, published 17th of May. http://www.town.ama.shimane.jp/koho-ama/2019/05/. Accessed 20 June 2019. Cheng, L., Sun, D.-W., Zhu, Z., & Zhang, Z. (2017). Emerging techniques for assisting and accelerating food freezing processes: A review of recent research progress. Critical Reviews in Food Science and Nutrition, 57(4), 769–781. Community Travel Guide Editorial Board. (Ed). (2012). Amanohito—Okinoshima Ama-cho Hitobito ni Deau Tabi [Traveling to Ama-cho to meet with the people]. Tokyo: Eiji-shuppan. Dozen High School. (2018). Shiman-kenritsu Oki-Dozen Koto Gakko [Dozen Senior High School]. http://www.dozen.ed.jp/. Accessed 25 June 2019. Dozen High School. (2019). Dozen koukou miryokuka purojekuto [Make Dozen High School attractive project]. http://miryokuka.dozen.ed.jp. Accessed 25 June 2019. Eigo de Nihon. (2019). Eigo de Nihon [Let’s say it in English]. https://eigodenihon.com/shingengoreiwa-explain-in-english/. Accessed 5 June 2019. Genki Otoyo. (2019). Genki Otoyo (an NPO to assist those who wish to emigrate to Otoyo-cho). http://genki-otoyo.org/. Accessed 17 July 2019. Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSSR]. (2013). Nihon no Chiikibetsu Shourai Suikei Jinko: Heisei 22-Heisei 52 [Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2010–2040]. Population Research Series No. 330, December 25. http://www.ipss.go.jp/syoushika/bunken/data/pdf/ 208521.pdf. Accessed 13 Nov 2017.

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Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSSR]. (2018). Nihon no Chiikibetsu Shourai Suikei Jinko: Heisei 27-Heisei 57 [Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2015–2045]. http:// www.ipss.go.jp/pp-shicyoson/j/shicyoson18/t-page.asp. Accessed 31 Mar 2019. Kochi Prefecture. (2014). Kochi-ken no shoukai [Introducing the prefecture of Kochi]. https://www. pref.kochi.lg.jp/info/fudo.html. Accessed 28 June 2019. Kodansha, L. (1983). Kodansha Encyclopedia of Japan. Tokyo: Kodansha. Kumagai, F. (2011). Nihon no Chienn to Chiikiryoku: Chiiki no Kizuna Kouchikuhemukete [Community Relations and Community Strength: Constructing the Community Bond.] Edited and authored by Kumagai Fumie, and with Yagihashi Hirotoshi, and Ishiguro Taeko.as chapter contributors respectively. Kyoto, Minerva-shobo. Kumagai, F. (2018). Chiikiryoku de Tachimukau Jinkou Genshou Shakai: Chiisana Jichitai no Chiiki Saisei Saku [Declining Population and the Municipal Power in Japan: Policies for Area Revitalization of Small Municipalities.] Kyoto: Minerva-shobo. Matsumoto, S. (1973). Suna no Utsuwa. Tokyo: Shincho-sha. Matsue City Municipal Office. (2018). Heisei 30 nendo Matsue-shi no jinko doutai, shiryo 3–1 [Vital statistics of Matsue city in 2018 Supplementary documents 3-1]. http://www1.city.matsue. shimane.jp/shisei/keikaku/seisaku/senryaku/H30suisinkaigi.data/05_siryou3-1.pdf. Accessed 10 June 2019. Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW). (2014). Heisei 20-nen-24nen jinkodotai hokenjyo shi-cho-son betsu toukei [Vital statistics by health center, and by municipality: 2008– 2012] released February 13. https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/other/hoken14/ index.html. Accessed 21 June 2019. Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare [MHLW]. (2017). Heisei 27 nendo to-do-fu-ken betsu seimeihyou no gaikyou [Life expectancy at birth by prefecture in 2015] press release on the 13th of December. https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/life/tdfk15/index.html. Accessed 12 June 2019. Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare [MHLW]. (2018). Heisei 27-nen shi-ku-cho-son betsu seimeihyou no gaikyou [Summary of life expectancy by municipality in 2015]. https://www.mhlw.go. jp/toukei/saikin/hw/life/ckts15/dl/ckts15-08.pdf. Accessed 20 June 2019. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2014) Heisei 26-nen jyumin kihondaichou ni motozuku jinkou, jinkoudoutai, oyobi setaisuu [Demographic and household statistics for the basic resident register as of January 1, 2014]. http://www.soumu.go.jp/menu_news/s-news/ 01gyosei02_02000062.html. Accessed 25 Sept 2016. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2016). Heisei 27-nen kokuseichousa: jinkoutou kihon shuukei kekka-Zenkoku, to-do-fu-ken, betsu jinkou oyobi setaisuuhi-cho-son [Results of 2015 national census of population and household for Japan, by prefecture and by municipality]. Released on 26 October 2016. http://tkj.jp/read/index/magazine/inaka/month/201 702/maxpage/24/pagedir/2/. Accessed 27 Oct 2016. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism [MLIT]. (2007). Ikkyu Kasen to nikkyu kasenn no chigai [Class A river and class B river in Japan]. https://www.mlit.go.jp/river/basic_ info/iken/question/faq_index.html. Accessed 9 July 2019. NHK News Web. (2019). Kochi no jinko suikei 70-man-nin ware [Population estimate for Kochi Prefecture has fallen below 700,000 as of June 1, 2019]. https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/201 90620/k10011961041000.html. Accessed 20 June 2019. Oki Islands UNESCO Geopark Promotion Committee. (2013). On-ru no shima [The island of On-ru: The Oki Islands]. http://www.oki-geopark.jp/episode/lifestyle/history/islands-of-exile/. Accessed 17 June 2019. Otoyo-cho History Editorial Board. (1987). Otoyo-cho Shi [History of Otoyo-cho]. Tokyo: Daiichi Hoki Shuppan. http://www.town.otoyo.kochi.jp/dl/dtl.php?k=4&i=4. Accessed 10 July 2019. Otoyo-cho Kankou. (2019) Otoyo-cho kankou gaido [Otoyo-cho tour guide]. https://www.otoyokankou.com/spot/tachikawa/. Accessed 10 July 2019. Otoyo Peony Society. (2019). Otoyo Shakuyaku no Kai [Otoyo Peony Society]. https://www.oto yopeony.org/home. Accessed 15 July 2019.

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Otoyo-Town. (2015). Otoyo-cho no chisei to gaiyou [Outlook of Otoyo-cho]. http://www.town. otoyo.kochi.jp/prof/. Accessed 9 July 2019. Otoyo-Town. (2018). Otoyo takuhai saabisu no torikumi [Delivery services for merchandise to the people in Otoyo-cho]. https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/keizaisaisei/miraitoshikaigi/suishi nkaigo2018/infla/dai3/siryou3.pdf. Accessed 16 July 2019. Otoyo-Town. (2019a). Kosodate-Kyouiku [Programs for child welfare and education in Otoyo-cho]. Updated 4th of February. http://www.town.otoyo.kochi.jp/life/list.php?hdnSKBN=B&hdnCat= 400&hdnJPN=%C6%FC%CB%DC%B8%EC. Accessed 17 July 2019. Otoyo-Town. (2019b). Otoyo-cho machi hito shigoto sousei sougou senryaku-Heisei 27-Heisei 31 (Kaiteiban) [Comprehensive planning for the revitalization of Otoyo town (revised updated version)] Revised and updated on June 27. http://www.town.otoyo.kochi.jp/life/detail.php?hdn Key=874. Accessed 12 July 2019. Otoyo-Town Resident Section. (2019). Jinko, setai, nenrei shuukeihyou-Reiwa gan-nenn 6gatsu 30nichi genzai [Population, households, ages in Otoyo-cho as of June 30, 2019]. Resident Section, uploaded on July 8. http://www.town.otoyo.kochi.jp/life/detail.php?hdnKey=874. Accessed 10 July 2019. Owada, N. (2001). Highly-efficient freezing apparatus and highly-efficient freezing method. US Patent US7237400B2. https://patents.google.com/patent/US7237400. Accessed 24 June 2019. Owada, N., & Saito, S. (2009). Quick freezing apparatus and quick freezing method. US Patent No. PCT/JP2005/006402. http://appft1.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HIT OFF&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearch-bool.html&r=1&f=G&l=50&co1=AND&d= PG01&s1=20090199577&OS=20090199577&RS=20090199577. Accessed 24 June 2019. Sanseido. (2019). Zenkoku Hougen Jiten [Online dictionary of Japanese dialect]. https://dictionary. goo.ne.jp/dialect/. Accessed 29 June 2019. Shimane Prefectural Government, Public Relations Office. (2019). Shimane-ken no purofiiru [Profile of Shimane Prefecture]. https://www.pref.shimane.lg.jp/admin/seisaku/koho/profile/. Accessed 5 June 2019. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018a). Toukei de miru To-do-fu-ken no sugta [Statistical Observations of Prefectures: 2018]. Released on February 16, 2018. http://www.stat.go.jp/data/k-sugata/index.html. Accessed 25 Dec 2018. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018b). Toukei de miru shi-ku-cho-son no sugta [Statistical Observations of Municipalities: 2018]. Released on June 22, 2018. http://www.stat.go.jp/data/s-sugata/index.html. Accessed 25 Dec 2018. Takemitsu, M. (2001). Kennminsei no Nihon Chizu [Characteristics of Japan by prefecture]. Tokyo: Bungei Shunjyu. Takemitsu, M. (2009). Shitteokitai Nihonnjinn no Kennminsei [Characteristics of Japan we should know]. Tokyo: Kadokawa-Gakugei Shuppan. Wakasa Obama Tourist Bureau. (2019). Mike-tsu-kuni towa [What is Mike-tsu-kuni?]. https://www. wakasa-obama.jp/About/About-Miketsukuni.php. Accessed 17 June 2019. Watanabe, S. (2014). Sugina no Shima Ryugaku Nikki—Shima ga Atatakai Kokoro to Manabu Shisei wo Hagukunde kureta [Sugina’s Diary of Studying at Dozen High School on Nakanoshima Island where she learned warm-heartedness of the people, and attitudes for studying]. Tokyo: Iwanami-shinsho. Yamauchi, M., Iwamoto, Y, & Tanaka, T. (2015). Mirai wo Kaeta Shima no Gakko—Oki Dozen Hatsu Furusato Saiko heno Michi [Dozen High School on a remote island which changed the future—Challenge for the revitalization of the hometown]. Tokyo: Iwanami-shoten. Zenkoku Cho-son Kai. (National Association of Towns and Villages). (2015). Shimane-ken Amacho—Naimono ha nai no seishin de akunaki chosen [Ama-cho of Shimane Prefecture: Challenging spirit with the firm belief of “there is nothing that we cannot achieve”]. Vol. no. 2913, March 16th issue, written by the General Affairs Office of Ama-cho Town Office. https://www. zck.or.jp/site/forum/1317.html. Accessed 19 June 2019.

Chapter 8

What Can Be Done Before a Municipality “Disappears”: Making the Best of Negative Municipal Resources

Abstract This chapter reiterates that the overall population of Japan continues to decline, although some municipalities have been successful in their community revitalization efforts. The reason some municipalities are successful may come from a realization of their municipal power. The Regional Revitalization Law of 2014 certainly facilitated municipalities in examining their demographic situations, and to realize their municipal power. However, it is questionable how much municipal power has been taken into consideration in community revitalization. Let us reiterate then, the very first step for regional revitalization is to realize its own municipal power, be it positive or negative. In the era of the so-called Society 5.0, this chapter explores some successful cases of community revitalization through the active use of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) programs. We pay close attention to successful application of community building, such as drones, the Internet of Things (IoT), open data, cloud service, crowdfunding, inbound tourism, and economiessharing. We come to realize that modern ICT programs can help, but communities’ determination to assess their municipal power, both strengths and weaknesses, is of most importance. We must admit that there are some unresolved issues in the study. We are most willing to set them as essential themes for the future research of community revitalization in Japan. At this point we can point out two essential unresolved issues for future research. First, we emphasized municipal power such as marriage power, household type, and economic indicators for the population-sustaining power of municipalities. However, in our future research we need to explore other aspects of municipal power, to allow the pursuit of regional revitalization more effectively. Although it is difficult to measure, we need to tap on the subjective dimension of people who facilitate community revitalization. Second, we have made deliberate efforts in taking the Goki-Shichido, particularly its provinces, as our theoretical framework to examine regional differences in municipal power, especially within the same prefecture. We were successful in examining such prefectures as Tokyo and Aichi of the Tokaido region, Aomori and Yamagata of the Tosando region, Osaka of the Kinai region, Shimane of the Sannindo region, Kochi of the Nankaido region, and Fukuoka of the Saikaido region. Nevertheless, we need to test municipal power in other prefectures within the prefectural variations, such as Nagano of the Tosando, Shizuoka and Mie of the Tokaido, Hiroshima of the Sannyodo, and Fukui, Ishikawa, and Niigata of the Hokurikudo. Only if we know these prefectural, the © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 F. Kumagai, Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4234-3_8

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Goki-Shichido, and provincial variations can we say that taking the Goki-Shichido as our theoretical framework for regional variation is validated. We believe, however, our studies on Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan: Goki-Shichido and Regional Variations are significant in shedding light on an unexplored field. One effective strategy in fighting the problem of Japan’s declining population would be to bring foreign workers into the municipality. An example is Izumo-shi in Shimane Prefecture. The city successfully implemented the Multicultural Symbiosis Promotion Plan to settle foreign workers with Family Stay status into the municipality. The implementation of such a plan seems simple, but is difficult to achieve. Izumo-shi, however, has proved that getting foreign workers settled in the municipality, with their families, would be one of the most effective strategies for population decline.

8.1 Needs for Regional Revitalization Programs by Analyses of Municipal Power We started our project by saying, “In much of the world, country leaders worry that their population may be growing too fast. Not in Japan.” Today’s Japanese population of 127 million (2015 census) is projected to fall to 99 million by 2050 and 88 million by 2065, according to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSSR 2017). Recently published World Population Prospects 2019 by the United Nations (2019) confirms what we have said. It reports that the world’s population continues to grow although at a slowing rate. The world population in 1950 was 7.7 billion, and is projected to exceed 100 billion by 2050, continuing to increase into the year 2100 (see Fig. 8.1a). We should note, however, regions where the population explosion continue to occur are mostly in African and West Asian nations (United Nations 2019). The population of Japan, on the other hand, will continue to decline from 127 million in 2015 to a projected 75 million by the year 2100, a projection which had been reduced from 84.5 million by the previous UN report of 2017 (see Fig. 8.1b) The UN report also highlighted the rapid aging of the world’s population (see Fig. 8.2a). The aging speed of Japan, in particular, is truly unprecedented. The proportion of Japanese people 65 and over in 1950 was 5%, and when its proportion hit 7% in 1970 Japan launched into the aging society. Today its proportion is as high as 28%, and projected to be 38% by 2050 (see Fig. 8.2b). Throughout the current study we noticed many municipalities in Japan today already qualify as a marginal settlement in which more than half of the population is 65 and over. At the same time, we detected that each of the municipalities facing critical population extinction is attempting to identify its own municipal powers as outlined by the Regional Revitalization Law of 2014 (Cabinet Secretariat 2014). Thus, now is the time for us to evaluate the Regional Revitalization Law based on our current studies.

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Fig. 8.1 Total population prospects: 1950–2100. (a) World. (b) Japan. Source United Nations (2019). Using the graphs function of the UN data, figures are compiled by the author. https://pop ulation.un.org/wpp/Graphs/. Accessed 5 Aug 2019

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Fig. 8.2 Changes and projections for percentage of population aged 65 years and over: 1950–2100. (a) World. (b) Japan. Source United Nations (2019). Using the Graphs function of the UN data, figures are compiled by the author. https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/. Accessed 5 Aug 2019

8.1.1 Comments on Regional Revitalization Law of 2014 In discussing municipal power and population decline in Japan we emphasized the need for analyses through the regional revitalization method based on the census and

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projection data on a municipal level. The same is emphasized in the Machi-HitoShigoto Sousei Hou (Law for Revitalization of Local Regions, People, and Jobs: Regional Empowerment for Japan’s Growth) enacted on December 2, 2014. The law is commonly called Chihou Sousei Hou (Regional Revitalization Law). The first phase of the Regional Revitalization Law was set for the fiscal years of 2015–2019. We pointed out four goals stipulated in the Regional Revitalization Law. They are namely, (1) create stable employment opportunities, particularly for young adults 15– 34, especially empowering women; (2) attract people into local areas, emphasizing the best use of ICT as used in modern work places, such as telework and satellite offices; (3) provide communities where married couples can raise families, with help from the community; and (4) encourage cooperation, not competition, among neighboring municipalities. We should remember, however, these four goals were based on the government’s regional revitalization initiative. In other words, it is aimed at reversing the population flow into the greater Tokyo area (including Saitama, Chiba, and Kanagawa prefectures) from other municipalities where depopulation is in progress. Regrettably, however, the governmental goal to balance the population flow into and out of the greater Tokyo area by the end of the first-phase of the law, i.e., by the end of fiscal year 2019 (Japanese fiscal year runs from the 1st of April to the 31st of March) as far from being met. On the contrary, the net population inflow to the greater Tokyo area has accelerated over the recent few years. It reached nearly 140,000 in 2018 as opposed to some 100,000 in 2013. In 2018 about 490,000 people resettled in the greater Tokyo area from other parts of the Japan, as opposed to some 350,000 people who moved out of the capital area. Of the total new inflow to the greater Tokyo area, about half are young people entering universities or beginning work. Moreover, women outnumber men in the net population inflow to the greater Tokyo area (Statistics Bureau 2019). In order to reverse the population flight to the greater Tokyo area, it is imperative to create work opportunities in local areas for the young people. When we think of the high level of centralization of various functions in the capital area in Japan, it will be a difficult task to accomplish. Another measure that was hoped to disperse the population concentration and halt the inflow of people into the greater Tokyo area, as stated in the Regional Revitalization Law of 2014, was the relocation of national government functions out of Tokyo. Forty-two prefectures expressed a desire to welcome governmental functions to their prefectures. In reality, however, little has been achieved in this regard except for three cases: a plan to move the Cultural Affairs Agency to Kyoto by 20211 ; the ad hoc facility of the Consumer Affairs Agency to Tokushima, which moved in July 2017 and is planned to be upgraded to a permanent office in 20202 ; and the Data Utilization base of the Statistics Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication (MIAC) , which was established in Wakayama Prefecture in April 2018 (Asahi Shinbun Digital 2019a). Two major barriers which seem to prevent national government functions from relocating out of Tokyo could be pointed out. First, there exists a strong propensity among many Japanese people to be close to the center of the national government and

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private organizations as well. That is a part of the culture ingrained into the mind of Japanese people, and extremely difficult to alleviate. In the era of highly developed ICT, Japanese people understand that people are connected to each other throughout Japan and across the world. The convenience of living in the greater Tokyo area amid presumed work opportunities, however, supersede relocating national government functions out of the greater Tokyo area. Second, access to the local municipalities is another hindrance to national government functions relocating out of Tokyo. The number of local municipalities connected by airlines and Shinkansen bullet trains are limited. Without them, people feel it is too inconvenient to fulfill their functions and business. In fact, the Regional Hub Base Urban Area Plan (Chihou Chuusu Kyoten Toshi-ken Koso) was established in August 2014. The plan designated 61 cities with an average population of 450,000 throughout Japan, and expects these local cities to block population migration to the greater Tokyo area (MIAC 2014) . However, it is essential to provide young people with jobs, so that they can stay in these regional hub base urban areas. During the past five years since the establishment of the Regional Hub Base Urban Area Plan in 2014, it is questionable to what extent this objective has materialized. More active measures for providing attractive work opportunities to young people wishing to relocate out of the Tokyo area must be established. Then, what we can suggest for the revitalization of population-declining Japan is recognition of municipal power, both its positive and negative aspects, by the local people as we have done so throughout the current book. Fair and correct recognition of the municipal power by the local people is, in fact, the very first step for revitalization of the municipality.

8.1.2 Municipal Power, the Goki-Shichido, and Provinces For the analyses of regional variations in the population decline in Japan, the current study stipulated the theoretical framework of the Goki-Shichido and provinces under Han dynasties. We found that the knowledge of the Goki-Shichido and provinces helped us understand the significance of a regional level of analysis in the tiny island nation of Japan, and the cultural heritage which remains in each municipality. For analyses of the population in Metropolitan Tokyo today, which used to belong to the Tokaido of the Goki-Shichido, must be divided the provinces of Musashi and Izu, and the Okutama regions. Aichi Prefecture in the Tokaido should be divided into two, i.e., Owari versus Mikawa provinces. As for Okinawa Prefecture, it is important to pay due attention to the historical development of the Ryukyu Kingdom. Fukuoka Prefecture of the Saikaido needs to be divided into the four regions of Buzen, Chikuzen, Chikugo, and Chikuho provinces. In analyzing the population of Osaka Prefecture of the Kinai, we need to pay attention to its division by the former provinces of Izumo, Kawachi, and Settsu. We learned that Aomori Prefecture of the Tosando is distinctively divided into two, i.e., Tsugaru and Nanbu provinces. Yamagata Prefecture, which also belonged to the Tosando, must be analyzed by

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the regional differences of Shonai, Mogami, Murayama, and Okitama. Concerning Shimane Prefecture of the Sannindo, demographic characteristics are clearly divided into three, i.e., Izumo, Iwami, and Oki provinces. As for population decline in Kochi Prefecture, which used to belong to the Nankaido, no clear regional variation could be detected, perhaps due to its historical development as Tosa Province solely.

8.1.3 Revitalization by Independence and Awareness In analyzing the population revitalization programs and/or services of municipalities which had been successful in increasing populations, the traditional model for community revitalization programs play key factors. They are: • Construction of a commuter town (“bed town” in Japanese terminology): As found in Chuo-ku of Metropolitan Tokyo (Chap. 4), Nagakute-shi of Aichi Prefecture (Chap. 4), and the Naha Metropolitan Area of Okinawa Prefecture (Chap. 5). • Convenient transportation services: As found in Ina-cho of Saitama Prefecture (Kumagai 2018), Inzai-shi of Chiba Prefecture (Kumagai 2018), Chuo-ku of Metropolitan Tokyo (Chap. 4), Kawasaki-shi (Kumagai 2018), Nagakute-shi of Aichi Prefecture (Chap. 4), Kusatsu-shi of Shiga Prefecture (Kumagai 2018), and Tajiri-cho of Osaka Prefecture (Chap. 5). • Construction of an academic city: As found in Nagakute-shi of Aichi Prefecture (Chap. 4), and Kusatsu-shi of Shiga Prefectutre (Kumagai 2018). • City planning, using residential or large commercial construction and new train stations: As found in Ina-cho of Saitama Prefecture (Kumagai 2018), Inzai-shi of Chiba Prefecture (Kumagai 2018), Chuo-ku of Metropolitan Tokyo (Chap. 4), Kaisei-machi of Kanagawa Prefecture (Kumagai 2018), Nagakute-shi of Aichi Prefecture (Chap. 4), Kusatsu-shi of Shiga Prefecture (Kumagai 2018), Tajiri-cho of Osaka Prefecture (Chap. 5), and Kasuya-cho of Fukuoka Prefecture (Chap. 5). • Abundant local resources: As found in Chuo-ku of Metropolitan Tokyo (Chap. 4), Chuo-ku of Osaka Prefecture (Chap. 5), Kasuya-cho of Fukuoka Prefecture (Chap. 5), and Nakagusuku-son of Okinawa Prefecture (Chap. 5). • Tourist attractions: As found in Mikurajima-mura of Metropolitan Tokyo (Chap. 4), the Naha Metropolitan Area of Okinawa Prefecture (Chap. 5), and many municipalities in Okinawa Prefecture (Chap. 5). Furthermore, we noted municipalities throughout Japan suffering from population decline, yet attracting people from outside and developing an interconnectedness with each other, mostly via cyberspace and online. Owing to the rapid development of ICT, new types of human relationships have been emerging which may save municipalities from disappearing. We have identified some municipalities both in eastern and western Japan, which are developing innovative regional revitalization programs despite their declining populations. The population decline in prefectures and municipalities in eastern Japan is at a critical level. Gojome-machi in Akita Prefecture has been revitalized with the

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new concept of “sharing villages” where people are virtually connected online, but physically visit the village at times (Kumagai 2018). Now is the time, therefore, to explore new methods of community revitalization, not of centralized orientation but with policies rooted in the local community. In the era of advanced information technology, people need not live close to large cities. When people are connected to each other via ICT, there are numerous modern methodologies to develop community revitalization. Various municipalities investigated in this book have suffered from population deterioration, but have successfully revitalized their municipalities, using different approaches. Upon analyzing these municipalities we learned that they identified negative municipal power and that resources, and turned them into strengths. The Internet has helped these communities, using numerous rapidly developing ICT-related innovations.

8.2 Community Revitalization in the Era of Society 5.0 It has been suggested that ICT is the best way to achieve regional revitalization today, as society has advanced to the so-called Society 5.0. Then, what is Society 5.0, and how does regional revitalization in Society 5.0 differ from those of previous societies? The Cabinet Office, Government of Japan defined Society 5.0 as “a humancentered society that balances economic advancement with the resolution of social problems by a system that highly integrates cyberspace and physical space.” The first human society was Society 1.0, a hunting and gathering society. It was followed by Society 2.0, an agricultural society; Society 3.0, an industrial society; Society 4.0 the information society, and Society 5.0 (see Fig. 8.3, Cabinet Office, Government of Japan 2016). With the use of advanced ICT, Society 5.0 will become as follow:

Fig. 8.3 Society 5.0. Source Cabinet Office, Government of Japan (2016)

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• Internet of Things (IoT) will connect most people and things. All kinds of knowledge and information will be shared, bringing out totally new values. • Social issues will be overcome and humans will be liberated from various types of constraints. For example, drones will facilitate human contacts in depopulated local regions. • Artificial Intelligence (AI) will free humans from the burdensome work of analyzing huge amounts of information. • The quality of life of people will be enhanced, being freed from physical labor through the use of such advanced ICT as robots and automatic-driving cars. Thus, let us pay close attention to some examples of their successful applications for community building, such as drones, ICT programs, cloud services, crowdfunding, inbound tourism, and sharing economies. Let us discuss some examples of each.

8.2.1 Using Drones The use of drones has come to be one of the most integral means of regional revitalization, especially in local remote areas. In the past, drones were used widely in such fields as reporting (showing ground images from above), media, and tourism promotion. In recent years, however, drones have been in high demand in other fields such as agriculture, construction, civil engineering and land surveys, and delivery services to isolated islands and remote areas. Japan’s Safety Rules on Unmanned Aircraft (UA)/Drone was enacted on November 11, 2015, and revised on June 24, 2019 (MLIT, Civil Aviation Bureau 2019). Right after enactment of the rules the number of applications for flying drones in January 2016 was 812 cases, but in nearly three years, in December 2018 the number more than tripled (2,579 cases) (MLIT 2019). With the expansion of areas in which drones can be utilized, some drone services have been in high demand. In the fiscal year 2017 the total market for drone use was as much as 15.5 billion yen (agriculture, especially pesticide spraying, 10.8 billion yens; civil engineering and architecture, especially surveying, 2.3 billion yen; and drone pictures, 1.5 billon yens) (Nikkei Business Daily 2019). Naka-cho of Tokushima Prefecture is a small town (8,417 people, and 3,995 households as of December 31, 2018). The town has been suffering from acute fertility decline and population aging. The proportion of people 65 and over in 2015 was 46.9%, which is projected to exceed the marginal settlement level soon (its projection for 2020 is 52.1%) (Naka-cho Town Office 2019). This small rural town is widely known throughout Japan as the municipality where drones have been most actively in use for regional revitalization. In April 2016, a Drone Promotion Office was established in Naka-cho Town Office, the first such public office in a Japan municipality. Drones have been actively used in wildlife protection, a problem in mountainous areas; experimentally in forestry management and in entertainment, such as drone

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races and production of a drone map that summarizes flight spots in Naka-cho so that people can enjoy aerial photography by drone, safely. These programs deliberated by Naka-cho Drone Promotion Office attract people not only among town residents, but also widely throughout Japan. Although the resident population does not increase, drone-related measures truly increase the inflow of non-resident population to Naka-cho, which contributes to the revitalization of the town (Kumagai 2018). There is no doubt that drones will also be used in city areas in the very foreseeable future as has been done in experiments at the central Shinjuku area (DRONE PRESS 2017; Kumagai 2018) , and in Fukuoka-shi (J-CAST 2019). The technological development of drones is but one attempt for community development. Thus, it is expected that drones, together with such advanced technologies as AI (Artificial Intelligence) and IoT (Internet of Things) will become a leading force in community revitalization.

8.2.2 Using Various ICT Programs Today municipalities in Japan are making efforts in community development utilizing ICT. Based on the experience of the Great East Japan Earthquake, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication (MIAC) established a round-table conference on ICT-based city planning in December 2011. MIAC requested municipalities to apply for governmental support for community development plans utilizing ICT. MIAC has a portal website to publish award-winning community development programs each year (MIAC 2019a, b). One of its websites lists 100 case studies in ten different fields. These fields are education, medical/nursing/health, disaster prevention, agriculture/forestry/fishery industries, tourism, government and private sector cooperation on IoT platforms, work style, local/regional business, and “smart” city. Of the selected 100 case studies, we selected five cases to introduce their programs briefly. Let us find how each municipality utilized ICT for its community revitalization plans.

8.2.2.1

Prevention of “Kerosene Refugees” in Rural Areas Using IoT by Shinshinotsu-mura, Hokkaido

Shinshinotsu-mura is a small municipality (population: 3,068, households: 1,404 as of August 1, 2019) located in the southwestern part of Hokkaido with heavy snowfall in the winter (Shinshinotsu Village Office 2019). Due to the rapid progress of population decline and depopulation in Shinshinotsu-mura, one of the most important infrastructures for people living in cold regions is to secure kerosene delivery for their daily heating. Due to labor shortages, people were on the verge of becoming “kerosene refugees” recently. Then they considered a plan for the prevention of kerosene refugees in rural areas using IoT which received a Regional Revitalization Award in 2019 (MIAC 2019a, b) .

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The plan entails attaching a sensor to the kerosene tank of each household for five months, in order to determine when to fill it up precisely. This has reduced the cost of kerosene delivery by 36%, and the number of lubrications by 20%. The results show significant savings in labor and fuel for each household (Shinshinotsu Village Office 2019). This program truly is a good example of utilization of ICT for community revitalization rooted in daily living of a heavy snow region.

8.2.2.2

Making Public Transportation Schedules Open Data by Nakatsugawa-shi, Gifu Prefecture

The population of Nakatsugawa-shi as of August 1, 2019 was 78,457 with 31,037 households (Nakatsugawa City Office 2019a, b). A great majority of the people there use cars for daily transportation. As a consequence, the number of users of public transportation, especially local buses, is declining rapidly year by year, leading to a negative spiral, where a decline in revenue due to a decrease in users leads to a decline in services such as a lower frequency of buses, which leads to further decrease in users. The prepared GTFS-JP3 data is made public by the bus company and Nakatsugawa-shi on their websites. By using these data, real-time bus operation guidance uses digital signage, i.e., a signboard with a liquid crystal display, and bus location services can be easily implemented (Nakatsugawa City Office 2019a) By the use of ICT the city office made the public transportation data open data so that anyone can access it and reformulate it. Such transportation data is convenient not only for city residents, but also encourages visitors and tourists to use them, hopefully revitalizing local bus transportation. The program was awarded a Regional Revitalization Award of 2019 (MIAC 2019a, b) . Using ICT, the convenience of public transportation is enhanced significantly, and a local public transportation network, which had been on the decline, will be maintained. Thus, the ICT-assisted public transportation data allow the residents and visitors to build a foundation for moving easily within the community.

8.2.2.3

Agricultural Work Support Notification IoT “Teru-chan” by Itoman-shi, Okinawa Prefecture

Teru-chan is a farm work support notification system that notifies workers of situations in the field, such as illuminance and humidity, using mobile phones. The system has been developed and is on a test run by Itoman-shi, Okinawa Prefecture in August 2018, and the official operation started in April 2019 (Itoman City Office 2018). The program received a Regional Revitalization Award of 2019 (MIAC 2019a, b) . Demonstration tests proved it was successful in monitoring the growth of Kogiku (small chrysanthemums), using electric cultivation. The number of patrol checks, that had taken about 400 min per month became zero, leading to a reduction in physical burden (sleeping time) and psychological burden (anxiety). In another test case, for mango cultivation, work efficiency was improved by eliminating the bother

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of checking thermometers at the site. In addition, introduction of the system led to changes in the awareness of experienced workers. Those who shy away from using smartphones and tablets felt the usefulness of agricultural IoT with Teru-chan. Furthermore, workers have learned that the use of more advanced functions would lead to further quality improvement and efficient production. Consequently, workers became willing to introduce smartphones and tablets in their agricultural work (MIAC 2019a, b) .

8.2.2.4

Let’s Make Barrier-Free Map Together by WheelLog!

WheelLog! is an organization aiming at creating a world where people on wheelchairs can get around more easily. The organization is working to improve the quality of life of wheelchair users through barrier-free maps of Japan. Wheelchair users can use the world’s first probe information (travel routes in wheelchairs) to create a free barrier-free map application. WheeLog! users contribute in creating barrier-free maps nationwide. In other words, the WheeLog! shows where wheelchair users can go, reducing wheelchair users’ concerns about going out. The application program is based on the open data of each municipality. The program received a Regional Revitalization Award of 2019 (MIAC 2019a, b, WheeLog! 2019). There is no doubt that barrier-free information provided by the WheeLog! program will enhance the quality of life for wheelchair users. At the same time, such barrier-free information can be effectively transmitted to tourists on wheelchairs not only from Japan but also from abroad.

8.2.2.5

Disseminating the Charm of Osaka City by Way of Open Source Regional Data of Osaka Municipal Library, Osaka Prefecture

Making the image data stored at Osaka Municipal Library into open data facilitated the people’s interests in and recognition of such data, and increased inquiries about the use of image data. It has been reported that open data image data have been used for such occasions as event publicity, bus wrapping design, event memorabilia, and framed pictures for overseas guests. Furthermore, the number of accesses to the Osaka City Library homepage increased from 7.14 million in 2015 to 8.66 million in 2017) and use of the Osaka City Library digital archive system from 28 thousand in 2015 to 78 thousand in 2017. On the other hand, the number of applications for secondary use of images, which was very complicated for users, has decreased from 129 cases in 2015 to 49 cases in 2017, leading to a significant reduction in administrative work for library employees (MIAC 2019a, b; Osaka Municipal Library 2019). Thus, making regional data open benefits not only the users, but also the administration. In addition, the utilization of open data from local materials contributes to revitalization of the city by creating new local information, and business. As we have discussed, ICT in its various forms has been playing significant roles in the revitalization of municipalities and communities. With the rapid development of technology it

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is certain that various ICT apparatus, IoT, and robotics will help community planning and building.

8.2.3 Using Cloud Service In Japan, where the population is declining rapidly, efforts are being made to utilize “cloud4 service.” It provides users with data and software stored on a computer network that users had previously kept on their computers (Kumagai 2018; MIAC 2018) . In community development, local residents can use cloud services by taking the initiative to build an autonomous organization that will overcome the population decline. We will introduce briefly examples from Masuda-shi, Shimane Prefecture, and Marumori-cho, Miyagi Prefecture, discussed in the previous work of the author (Kumagai 2018).

8.2.3.1

Community Building to Overcome Population Decline Using Kintone by Masuda-shi, Shimane Prefecture

Masuda-shi, Shimane Prefecture, is one of the “disappearing municipalities” designated by the Japan Creation Council (Masuda 2014). Ever since 1985 the city’s population has declined (1985, 60,080; as of May 31, 2019, 46,550; 2045 projected, 31,508) (IPSSR 2018; Masuda City Office 2019). Consequently, in recent years various problems emerged in the community such as increases in uncultivated land due to a shortage of farmers; in wildlife damage caused by deforestation of unmanaged mountain forests; devastation of satoyama (rural natural areas), and increased number of vacant houses (Masuda City Office 2017). In order to establish a public-private partnership the city used the cloud database kintone,5 which is provided by Cybozu Corporation. In education, significant results have been obtained. For example, nursery school, elementary school, and junior high school teachers and school board staff share the contents of their hometown education on kintone. Based on the past implementation content, teachers and the staff of the school board create a “hometown education plan” in which educational institutions have collaborated, so Masuda-shi now has materialized in systematic learning activities (Masuda City Office 2017). The cloud database kintone has been applied to not only the field of education but also in various fields of community building in Masuda-shi. Some examples for using the kintone database are municipal office management, traffic measures, vacant houses, crisis management, ledger management, settlement promotion, and disaster prevention (Masuda City Office 2017). Masuda-shi of Shimane Prefecture seemed to be successful in creating a team that can solve regional problems, mainly with local residents. By using kintone, all participants in the group are able to share data. It is an essential tool for the

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materialization of a cooperative independence model in the hilly and mountainous areas of Japan.

8.2.3.2

Marumori-machi, Miyagi Prefecture

The population of Marumori-machi,6 Miyagi Prefecture, has been declining ever since 1980 (1985, 20,849; as of September 2019, 13,431; 2045 projected, 6,231). Marumori-machi is located at the southernmost part of Miyagi Prefecture, and the southwestern part is adjacent to Fukushima Prefecture. The town is located in a circular basin within a mountainous area, and is surrounded by the Abukuma Highlands, where the Abukuma River flows through the northern part of the town. The population decline rate of the town is sixth from the bottom of all the 35 municipalities in Miyagi Prefecture (−9.79% in the 2015 national census) (IPSSR 2018; Marumori Town Office 2019). Thus, the town office of Marumori-machi frankly admits that they are in crisis, and calls for people to migrate here (Nikkei 2016). In order to overcome population decline, the Marumori Town Office opened the Marumori Migration and Settlement Support Center in April 2016. The center works on a project to acquire information on possible migrants to the town. As part of the activity, the town focused on CMR (Customer Relationship Management)7 , considering visitors and people interested in Marumori-machi as customers. A cloud service was used to collect demographic information of visitors to the town, list their demographic data, and conduct an ad hoc analysis,8 which led to improvements in measures and proposals for new promotions. Utilizing advanced technologies such as IoT, and AI, the project aims at collecting and accumulating data about migrants, settlers, and tourists, to help solve the problem of population decline. The system started its operation in February 2017, by the settled residents of Marumori-machi (Marumamori Town Office 2019). In other words, Marumori-machi aims at making itself an advanced local government that uses ICT in solving regional problems.

8.2.4 Crowdfunding Crowdfunding is a service originated in the United States, coined by “crowd” and “funding,” a project that raises a relatively small amount of funds from individuals via the Internet. Overseas, a large market has already been formed. In Japan, the first crowdfunding service was provided in 2001, but it was the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 which brought popular recognition to crowdfunding. It is a method of raising capital through the collective effort of friends, family, customers, and individual investors. This approach taps into the collective efforts of a large pool of individuals—primarily online via social media and crowdfunding platforms—and leverages their networks for greater reach and exposure (Yano Research Institute 2018).

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In crowdfunding, information is transmitted using such Internet exchange sites as Facebook, Twitter, and Line, an app providing free communication. As a result, the person who has provided project funds can grasp the project operator and the progress of the project. With face-to-face project management, it is possible to use funds to support the project itself. Some examples of utilizing crowdfunding for community building are found in “Shared villages using old private houses in Akita Prefecture” (Kumagai 2018) and the Kochi Prefecture Otoyo Peonies Association as discussed in Chap. 7. Utilization of crowdfunding, together with local resources, result in producing high value-added products and services. A survey conducted by Nihon Keizai Shimbun in 47 prefectures and 813 municipalities in July 2016, revealed that the use of crowdfunding has spread to 34 prefectures (72%) and 133 communities (16%) (Nikkei Digital 2016). Crowdfunding is spreading throughout Japan as a means to secure new financial resources and revitalize the local economy. Although it is not the same sense of community building as regional revitalization, in response to the painful arson that struck Kyoto Animation9 on July 18, 2019, Sentai Filmworks Inc. launched crowdfunding to raise donations under the hashtag #Help KyoAni Heal. Sentai Filmworks was established in 2008 and distributes Japanese anime overseas. It has also worked on Kyoto animation works such as the “Clannad” and “K-On!” Series (Senti Filmworks 2019). Rather than relying on conventional subsidies, the private sector has been used for regional revitalization projects, with cooperation from administrative and financial institutions. Crowdfunding plays a significant role in building such a sustainable system. Thus, crowdfunding today has become one of the integral means for community building, allowing individuals to contribute online to support projects. It is expected that community-based crowdfunding will become more active in the future. Nevertheless, there is one thing that we must remember about the role of crowdfunding in community building. That is, crowdfunding is not only using the Internet as a tool, but also has the aspect that conventional financial and securities market common sense and wisdom is difficult to apply in terms of market participants’ needs. It is the same as the Social Networking Service (SNS)10 world is far from the conventional analog world. Therefore, it is important to recognize such qualitative differences when considering the way of crowdfunding in community revitalization.

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8.2.5 Inbound Tourism as Regional Revitalization Using ICTs 8.2.5.1

Increase in Inbound Tourists

Recently we often hear the word “inbound,” which means “coming in from the outside,” and is a term in the tourism industry that refers to foreign tourists visiting Japan. A trip to a foreign country from one’s own country is called an outbound or overseas trip. The reason why the term “inbound” has come to be heard so often is that the number of foreign tourists visiting Japan has increased at an unprecedented rate. Speaking of Japanese tourism so far, the major focus has been on Japanese domestic and overseas travel. The number of foreign visitors to Japan in 1964 (the year of the Tokyo Olympics), when statistics were collected by the Japanese government for the first time, was 350,000. On the other hand, the number of Japanese leaving Japan in the same year was 221,000. The number of Japanese leaving Japan increased year by year, reaching a record high of 17.82 million in 2000. In comparison, the number of foreign tourists visiting Japan in the same year was about one fourth that, i.e., 4.76 million (JNTO 2019; Kumagai 2018). In an attempt to increase foreign visitors to Japan, the Japanese Tourism Agency and private sectors started a “Visit Japan Campaign” in 2003. It is a campaign to promote foreign visits to Japan. In the campaign, 20 countries were selected as priority markets. These 20 markets are South Korea, China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, India, Australia, the USA, Canada, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Russia and Spain. Various attempts have been made to encourage foreign tourists to visit Japan, e.g., organizing tourist spots for international competitions, developing travel products for foreigners, preparing multilingual guides, relaxing visa conditions for Asian countries, improving immigration procedures, constructing base airports, inviting LCCs (low-cost carriers), and promoting tourist spots and tour trips to Japan based on tourism demand in each country and/or region (Kumagai 2018; MLIT 2019) . Since 2013, the number of foreign tourists has increased at an unprecedented rate, reaching 19.74 million in 2015 (up 47.1% from the previous year). As a result, the number of foreign tourists exceeded the number of Japanese leaving Japan (16.21 million) for the first time in 44 years in 2015. In 2018, the number of visitors to Japan surged to 31.19 million (the number of Japanese overseas travelers was 18.95 million). Furthermore, the number of foreign tourists visiting Japan is expected to increase to 40 million in 2020 when the Olympics and Paralympics are held in Tokyo (JNTO 2019; MLIT 2019). Unfortunately, however, due to the coronavirus pandemic the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics have been postponed to the summer of 2021. It is uncertain that they will be held as rescheduled or not. The negative impact of coronavirus is tremendous in various fields such as economy, manufacturing sectors, employment, and tourism industries to name a few.

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Inbound Tourism and ICTs

These inbound tourists visit diverse places in Japan, and speak various languages. It is a good opportunity to practice regional revitalization in local areas. At the same time, there emerge problems that must be addressed and solved for successful regional revitalization through inbound tourism. Some of the problems raised by inbound tourists are as follows (MLIT 2019): (1) As a means of acquiring information, two-thirds of inbound tourists visiting Japan used smartphones. About 28% of foreign tourists mentioned that there was no free public wireless LAN available. (2) Stores without cashless payment or Wi-Fi risk losing sales opportunities. (3) Tourists visiting Japan speak various languages. Thus, four major issues to be addressed with relation to the inbound tourism, which could be solved by the utilization of ICTs. First, each store is advised to organize a Wi-Fi environment. When a visitor “checks in” on the Facebook page of the store, the store name is displayed on the visitor’s “timeline” along with the name of the store, and the store can be promoted on SNS. The Wi-Fi environment is one of the features that foreign tourists want. Therefore, there is an urgent need for local governments to immediately develop an Internet environment and to promote inbound measures for foreign visitors to Japan. Second, the installation of QR (Quick Response) payment codes11 is recommended. Multiple QR payment services can be automatically recognized and payments processed, increasing the number of payment methods for customers at stores. Third, the utilization of multilingual automatic translation tools is highly recommended. By using an automatic translator, communication with foreign tourists visiting Japan can be facilitated. Fourth, the use of big data is recommended. Recently, the use of big data has become an important theme, even inbound. Foreign tourists visiting Japan spend money on a wide variety of things such as shopping, lodging, food, transportation, entertainment and leisure. Various companies have big data for each item, and it is possible to obtain it. However, big data tends to be for analysis only. Instead, it is important to have a perspective on how to use the results of analysis to solve problems. Otherwise, even if we get valuable big data, we cannot take advantage of it. In order to make effective use of big data, it is important to connect to specific measures after analysis. Keeping this in mind, it is necessary to look at the use of big data for tourists (Kumagai 2018; MLIT 2019).

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8.2.6 Sharing Economies and Community Revitalization 8.2.6.1

What Is Sharing Economy?

So far, we have introduced new types of community development mainly using ICT. As a final example, we will examine the “sharing economy.” Then, what does “sharing economy” mean? It is a new socioeconomic change brought about by the spread of social media developed in the information society. Typically, it is a service that mediates lending of idle assets held by individuals, including intangible assets such as skills. Advantages of the sharing economy rest upon the fact that the lender can still use the idle asset, while the borrower can use it temporarily, without owning it. In order for a loan to be established, a security of trust is necessary. A major feature is that such services are provided via the Internet. For this purpose, it is possible to utilize information exchange, which is an essential characteristic of social media (Kumagai 2018; MIAC 2018). The sharing economy has grown globally, mainly in the West, starting with Silicon Valley. The origin is said to be US Airbnb, which started the so-called “private night accommodation” (minpaku in Japanese) brokerage service in 2008. After that, services such as cars, and pet sitters that mediate lending and borrowing goods between individuals have appeared (Airbnb 2019; Kumagai 2018; MIAC 2018) . The major reason for the popularization of the sharing economy is the development of technology such as the spread of the Internet, smartphones and tablet devices. The sharing economy has achieved rapid growth as the Internet has developed, and it can be easily used by terminals. Users can use the system anytime and anywhere with a single smartphone, making it easier to receive services. On the other hand, the supply side (lender) who provides the system has prepared an environment where it is easy to provide the service. Everything that was previously managed by a dedicated machine or special system can now be accessed with just one smartphone. This makes it easier for the supplier who provides the system to manage users and information. It can be said that this became a factor expanding the sharing economy (Sharing Economy Lab 2017). Why is the sharing economy attractive in local communities? In order to respond to this question we must pay attention to the structural issues facing local municipal governments, such as declining fertility, population aging, and depopulation. These issues are difficult to solve through public services under their limited budget and personnel situations. Then, in lieu of the current public service, attention is being paid to the efficient use of idle assets already in the region, i.e. the idea of the “sharing economy” in a way to make the lives of local residents convenient and fulfilling. Therefore, each region has the advantages and benefits of a sharing economy (Kumagai 2018; Sharing Economy Lab 2017). Thus, we can think of benefits of the sharing economy as three-fold. First, it reduces local government costs and budget. Second, many of the services provided by the sharing economy are directly linked to the daily life of local residents. Third,

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idle assets in the region are considered as integral municipal power to improve convenience and attractiveness of the region (Kumagai 2018).

8.2.6.2

Sharing City

In November 2016, Sharing Economy Lab organized to announce the “Sharing City Declaration” with mayors of five cities. These five cities are Yuzawa-shi, Akita Prefecture; Chiba-shi, Chiba Prefecture; Hamamatsu-shi, Shizuoka Prefecture; Takushi, Saga Prefecture; and Shimabara-shi, Nagasaki Prefecture. Sharing Economy Lab, with approximately 120 companies, mainly IT related companies, aims to solve regional problems by utilizing multiple sharing services. More specifically, people in the city share such ideas as parenting, and the use of tourism facilities on the Internet. In doing so, it is possible to create a city sharing the vitality of ideas from the private sector (Kumagai 2018; Sharing Economy Lab 2017). Then, let us discuss briefly the initiatives of each of these five cities that have declared the sharing city. (1) Yuzawa-shi, Akita Prefecture: The city established “child-rearing sharing” in cooperation with AsMama, Inc.12 It is a “child-rearing sharing business” that asks for help on child-rearing via the Internet through acquaintances and familiar people. Within a group made up of acquaintances a person registers oneself on the Internet site asking for daycare assistance. On the other hand, a registered friend or acquaintance provides daycare at home. (2) Chiba-shi, Chiba Prefecture: The Chiba-shi Family Support Center is working on matching childcare sharing programs using ICT. Its main purpose is not mutual support from the municipal government—public assistance—but mutual assistance activities among citizens. For example, mutual support activities organized by people who want to extend help with childcare (providing members), and people who want to receive assistance on childcare (requesting members) will support child-rearing among local members. Furthermore, through these activities, new interactions and human relations will be brought into the community which in turn will contribute to the regional community building (Chiba City Office 2018; Kumagai 2018). (3) Hamamatsu-shi, Shizuoka Prefecture: In 2005, the 12 municipalities of the Tenryu River valley and the Lake Hamanatsu region merged to form the largest city in Shizuoka Prefecture, with a population of 800,000.13 The city put forward three major themes, encouraging young people to challenge themselves, supporting couples with children, and providing a sustainable and creative city. As Hamamatsu-shi is the product of 12 municipalities, it faces various problems, and therefore, the sharing economy is actively used as its countermeasure. Experience-based trips such as private home accommodations contribute

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greatly to the revitalization of mountainous areas. For an effective use of public facilities not currently in use, the city cooperates with SpaceMarket, Inc.14 to promote matching of space needs (Hamamatsu City Office 2019). (4) Taku-shi, Saga Prefecture: Making the best use of the Internet, Taku-shi targets those who want to work, but cannot travel to a job. The city has partnered with CloudWorks Inc.15 to provide work opportunities at home. The purpose is to train “cloud workers” who receive work orders from companies through the Internet. Cloud work would be for all ages from child-rearing housewives to people in their 70 s, who can work any time and any place of their choice. The Working Support Center (opened in front of Taku Station in November 2016) not only extends support to local sharing businesses which support workers, but is also a challenge shop, where experts give management guidance to those wgmaiho want to start a business. In order to enhance regional revitalization, it is also planned that local people will guide visitors to local attractions in cooperation with companies that provide services specialized in Chakuchigata Kanko (community-based tourism, or landing-type tourism)16 (Kumagai 2018; Taku City Office 2018). (5) Shimabara-shi, Nagasaki Prefecture: Shimabara-shi faces serious problems such as declining fertility, population aging, depopulation (in particular, the younger generation), and an increase in vacant houses. Then, the city formed a partnership with the tourism service Tabica (http://tabica.jp/) in March 2017 hoping to create experience-based tours of the city. With the active utilization of such sharing economy features as the castle tower of Shimabara Castle, the city now provides tourists with experiences created by citizens (Kumagai 2018; Shimabara City Office 2017). It is hoped that new tourism services will be created by the active utilization of tourism resources and municipal power of Shimabara City. The sharing economy solves efficiently a wide range of problems in the local region. We must remember, however, each local community has different problems, and it is not possible to propose a single uniform solution. It is important, therefore, for local municipalities to first clarify the issues they have, and then analyze whether these issues can be solved with assets not in use, and what kind of sharing service is suitable.

8.3 Immigration: A New Strategy for Municipal Revitalization In recent years, foreign residents in Japan have been on the rise amounting to as many as slightly less than three million17 (Ministry of Justice 2019, and see Fig. 8.4), both “oldcomers”18 and “newcomers” inclusive. On the other hand, the Japanese population (about 127,444,000 in 2019) is about 430,000 less than in previous year, peaking in 2009 and falling for 10 consecutive years. The decline was the largest

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Fig. 8.4 Changes in the total number of foreign residents in Japan: 1950–2019. Source Data from 1950–2017 are taken from the Table 10-01 in IPSSR 2019, and 2018 and 2019 are from e-Stat at https://www.e-stat.go.jp/statsearch/files?page=1&layout=datalist&toukei=00250012&tstat=000 001018034&cycle=1&year=20190&month=12040606&tclass1=000001060399. Accessed 29 Jan 2020, and the figure is compiled and constructed by the author

since the current survey started in 1968 (MIAC 2019b). Thus, foreign residents in Japan today are considered a vital force for population revitalization, especially in regional areas. In 1990 the number of resident aliens exceeded one million, rising above two million in 2005, and continues to rise to nearly three million today (see Fig. 8.4). However, we must pay close attention to the composition of these resident aliens. Although the number of foreign residents in Japan has increased dramatically over the years, their distribution by prefecture has stayed mostly the same. In 1995, the top six prefectures with large numbers of resident aliens were, in order, Tokyo, Osaka, Aichi, Kanagawa, Hyogo, and Saitama. Then, in 2010, the ranking order stayed the same, except that Saitama passed Hyogo, into fifth place (see Figs. 8.5a, b). Similarly, over the years the proportion of foreign residents to the total prefectural population has increased, except for Osaka Prefecture where the number of foreign residents declined with the native population (see Fig. 8.5a, b). Foreign residents in Japan are likely to be concentrated in large urban areas, but somewhat different characteristics can be observed in recent years among foreign brides and/or foreign workers.

8.3.1 Foreign Brides to Maintain Rural Farm Households Although intercultural marriage in Japan used to be a small portion of the total annual marriages, it has been on the rise recently. When the Japanese government

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Fig. 8.5 Changes in the number of foreign residents by prefecture: 1995–2010. (a) 1995. (b) 2010. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020

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made such statistics available, the majority was comprised of Japanese wives and U.S.A. husbands. Since the 1980s, however, the pattern has changed ed, and the great majority now is that between Japanese husbands and foreign brides, primarily from China, the Philippines, and Korea (North and South). Initially, these foreign brides were brought to the rural farms of Yamagata Prefecture through municipal efforts in the mid-1980s. Studies of foreign brides in several rural farming municipalities in Yamagata Prefecture revealed a high relationship between the proportion of foreign residents and three-generation households. Stated differently, foreign brides in intercultural marriages contributed to the continuity of the stem family. These foreign brides were brought to rural farming communities to fill the lack of a marriageable female population. The resident women had left for urban regions, seeking better job opportunities. Consequently, Japanese men who wished to get married were left without marriage opportunities. Then each municipality in Yamagata Prefecture developed strategies to recruit foreign brides from Asian nations, mainly from the Philippines. It was regarded as an effective strategy to maintain rural farm households. At the same time, however, such strategy was criticized as violating the human rights of foreign brides (Kumagai 2008, 2015a, b).

8.3.2 Foreign Workers The number of foreign workers in Japan today amounts to a record high of 1.66 million in 2019, an increase of 13.6% (198,000 workers) from the previous year, and trice as many as 2014 (MHLW 2020, see Fig. 8.6). As seen in Fig. 8.6, foreign workers have been increasing by 200,000 each year. In five years the number of foreign workers in Japan will double. It indicates that in recent years foreign workers have become an integral force, filling the shortage in the Japanese labor force. Prior to 1980, the problem of labor shortage in Japan was solved within Japan, because Japan was able to secure a labor force within itself. In the 1980s, however, with the high growth of the Japanese economy, a great majority of Japanese young people received higher education, and changes in the demographic structure emerged. That is, the labor force shifted from the primary to the tertiary industries, and a large proportion moved into the service sector. Japanese people started to shun simple labor-work as “san Ks,” an acronym taken from three abhorred words: Kitsui (hard), Kitanai (dirty), and Kiken (dangerous) leading to a serious labor shortage. On the other hand, in Southeast and South Asia, migration to other countries was structured around the patterns of the 1970s, when jobs in the Middle East flourished, from the boom in oil money. But that came to an end, and migrant workers had nowhere else to go, until Japan’s economic boom was noticed (Ishikawa 2011; Kumagai 1996). By the early 1980s, Asian women, mainly from Korea and the Philippines, began flowing into Japan, primarily for jobs in the food and beverage business, under the guise of an entertainment visa. During the bubble economy period, people from the Middle East, such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Iran also came to Japan to work. Although Japan did not allow foreign nationals to work at that time, many of them

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1,800,000

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Fig. 8.6 Changes in the total number of foreign workers in Japan: 1993–2019. Source Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare (MHLW), 1993–2006: Employment Situation of Foreigners (as of June 1st of each year), and 2008–2019: Notification of Foreign Employment Status (as of October 31st of each year). Data are compiled, and figure is drawn by the author

came to Japan on a tourist visa, student visa, or training visa and engaged in construction and manufacturing in the form of illegal employment (Ishikawa 2011; Kumagai 1996). Then, the Revisions to the Immigration Control and Refugee Recognition Act (Immigration Act) was enacted in 1990 and started to bring the phrase “newcomers” into Japan, as Nikkeijin (South Americans of Japanese descent, especially Brazilian), arrived in the country. In 1990, revisions were also made to the foreign training system, which had been established in 1981 to help the economies of developing countries, by introducing a group supervision system with the cooperation of a regional chamber of commerce. In 1993, the technical intern training visa system (gaikokujingino jisshuu-sei seido) was launched for foreign trainees in Japan. Consequently, foreign trainees who reached a certain skill level could receive up to one additional year of training (later extended to two years) (Ishikawa 2011). In fact, the total number of foreign workers under the technical intern trainee category in 2019 amounted to 384,000 foreign workers (23.21% of the total) (MHLW 2020). At the end of the 1990s, with a scarcity in job opportunities, the labor shortage in the blue-collar sector was solved but a labor shortage due to population aging and globalization requiring highly developed ICT workers had emerged. Meanwhile, foreign workers, such as foreign nurses and care workers were gradually accepted by Japanese society (Ishikawa 2011). Then, a historic immigration reform in Japan took place in April 2019. That is, Revisions to the Immigration Control and Refugee Recognition Act which was passed in December 2018 and enacted in April 2019, created a new visa category of “Specified Skills” (Immigration Services Agency of Japan 2020). The Japanese

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government plans to bring in 345,000 foreign workers over the next five years under this system (Immigration Services Agency of Japan 2020), and it was expected to have a maximum of 47,000 in the fiscal year of 2019. However, foreign workers under the category of specified skills in 2019 were only 520 (MHLW 2020).

8.3.3 Revised Immigration and Refugee Recognition Act of 2019 The Revised Immigration and Refugee Recognition Act of 2019 officially enables lower-skilled and semi-skilled foreign workers to come to Japan to work. Over the next five years it plans to allow the admission of up to 345,000 workers under the new visa. In order to meet the acute labor shortage in Japan’s rapidly aging society it is highly likely that the number of these foreign workers under the newly revised law will increase in the future. In this regard, therefore, enforcement of this revised immigration act is very significant. The revised Immigration and Refugee Recognition Act of 2019 highlights three major points. First, the revised act allows lower-skilled foreign workers who meet with industry-specific language and skills requirements will be eligible to live and work in Japan under a new five-year working visa, Specified Skills category 1 residence status, but it will not allow foreign workers to bring family members (Menju 2019). Second, the category 2 residence status of the new system offers foreign workers with advanced skills a possible path to permanent immigration in Japan. Category 1 workers could upgrade their status to category 2 if they qualify by passing an examination or meeting other conditions. At the same time, Japanese industries and manufacturers are expected to invest in training these foreign workers to fill an acute shortage of skilled production workers (Menju 2019). Third, in addition to the immigration reforms the Japanese government adopted support and integration policies by “Comprehensive Measures for the Acceptance and Inclusion of Foreign Human Resources” in December 2018. In the past, various social and language problems faced by foreign workers and their children have been ignored. Thus, it is hoped that the newly established measures will offer support for foreign workers and their families who will be an integral force for the revitalization of Japanese population and society in years to come (Menju 2019).

8.3.4 An Example of a Municipality Successful in Accepting Foreign Workers: Izumo-shi, Shimane Prefecture In Chap. 7 we discussed Shimane Prefecture, one of the most severely populationdeclining prefectures in the western region of Japan. At that time, we briefly

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mentioned that of the total 19 municipalities in Shimane Prefecture today, only one municipality, i.e., Izumo-shi, attained a population increase in the national census of 2015 from that of 2010. Also, we analyzed in depth reasons why Ama-cho, a small island municipality on Okino-shima, was successful in attracting people from outside. But we did not pay close attention to the foreign residents and workers in Izumo-shi, Shimane Prefecture. The population increase in Izumo-shi can likely be attributed to the influx of foreign residents in the city in recent years. Thus, let us analyze the changing trend of foreign residents in Izumo-shi, and reasons for it. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications announced on July 10, 2019, a population survey based on the Basic Resident Register. According to the report, the total number of foreigners living in Japan was 2,829,416 as of January 1, 2019, an increase of about 170,000, or 3.48% from the previous year (see Fig. 8.4). The population growth rate of foreign residents in Shimane Prefecture in the same year was 15.42%, the highest among all the 47 prefectures in (MIAC 2019b). During the 1990s the total number of foreign residents in Shimane Prefecture was less than 5,000, exceeding 5,000 in the year 2000, and is about 9,000 today. Those who reside in Izumo-shi today amount to more than half the total. It is clear, however, that the increasing trend in the total number of foreign residents in Izumo-shi has accelerated only since the mid-2010s (see Fig. 8.7). Of the total 19 municipalities in Shimane Prefecture today, Izumo-shi has by far the most abundant (4,667 people, a 25.10% increase from the previous year, followed by Matsue-shi, the capitol city of Shimane Prefecture), with 1,482. Of these foreign residents in Izumo-shi, Brazilians comprise more than two-thirds of the total (MIAC 2019b; Shimane Prefectural Office 2019) (see Figs. 8.7 and 8.8). So why is Izumo-shi successful in bringing foreign residents into their communities? 10000 8,875

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Fig. 8.7 Changes in the number of foreign residents in Izumo-shi by nationality: 2006–2019. Source Izumo City Municipal Office (2016, 2020), Shimane Prefectural Office (2019), MIAC (2019a, b). Data are compiled and the figure is drawn by the author

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(a)

(b)

Izumo-shi Fig. 8.8 Number of foreign residents in Shimane Prefecture by municipality. (a) 1995. (b) 2010. Source Using the G-Census geographic statistical tool the figure is compiled and constructed by the author. http://www.g-census.jp/. Accessed 1 Feb 2020

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8.3.5 Reasons Why Izumo-shi Attracts Foreign Residents Four major reasons why Izumo-shi attracts foreign residents could be pointed out. First, there is a leading worldwide ceramics manufacturing company which hires foreign workers actively—Izumo Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd.,19 a subsidiary of Murata Manufacturing Group. At Izumo Murata Manufacturing, 1,000 JapaneseBrazilians work to support Murata’s “strongest plant.” Izumo Murata manufactures multilayer ceramic capacitors, which boast the number one share in the world. In response to increasing demand for smartphones and automobiles, a new production line has been launched. Consequently, Japanese-Brazilian employment has increased as well. With the solid work opportunities available foreign workers regard Izumo-shi as providing a good working environment (Kanda 2019; Izumo Murata Manufacturing 2020). A second reason why Izumo-shi attracts foreign residents would be that many of them hold the “Family Stay” (Kazoku taizai) residence status. Foreign residents in Japan must obtain one of the 36 types of resident status, and Japanese Brazilians who lived in Izumo-shi used to be granted “resident” status. Recently, however, it has changed to “Family Stay” status. The number of foreigners who want to come to Japan with their family is increasing. Furthermore, foreigners who have a resident status can bring their families. Many of them have been employed in Japan in the past as international students or technical interns. For this reason, spouses and children with the status of residence called “family stay” are increasing rapidly in Izumo-shi, which in turn contributes to the increase in foreign residents in the area (NHK 2018). Third, in 2016 Izumo-shi announced a Multicultural Symbiosis Promotion Plan, which states “We will accept foreign residents as good partners and good neighbors, and will promote to develop the city where both Japanese and foreign residents can live amicably.” More specifically, the city will work (1) to develop administrative sections for foreign residents to feel at ease when visiting, (2) to provide child care programs with the assistance of interpreters to alleviate communication problems of non-Japanese speaking residents, and (3) to implement disaster prevention drills that are easier for foreigners to take part in. It also includes a numerical target for the percentage of foreign residents in the city. That is, the ratio of foreign residents who will be settled in the city for more than five years will be raised from 24.6% in 2015 to more than 30% by March 2021. In other words, Izumo-shi wants to make the municipality comfortable for foreign residents to live in, one of the essential countermeasures for declining population (Izumo City Municipal Office 2016). It is remarkable that the numerical target to raise the long-term foreign residents to 30% by 2021 was reached by the end of fiscal year 2017, i.e., March 2018, well in advance of the target set forth by March 2021 (Mainichi Shimbun 2018). Fourth, the well-thought-out language program for children of foreign residents in Izumo-shi would be another strong incentive for foreign residents who wish to settle in the city. As more foreigners live with their families, foreign children are increasing in Izumo-shi. During the five-year period between 2013 and 2018, the number of foreign children under the age of 15 increased by 185, especially elementary school

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pupils who increased by 135, more than triple (3.2 times) the previous number. It is the highest growth rate in all the municipalities in Japan One of the possible contributing factors for the increase in foreign residents and their children in Izumoshi would be the Japanese language program called “toridashi jyugyou” (take-out class of Japanese language). The program literally “takes out” children who are behind in regular classes and teaches them according to the level of proficiency in Japanese language of each child. For each of the lower grades, middle grades, and higher grades, one class is composed of small groups of three to four children, or one-on-one basis. Subjects such as physical education and music not requiring a lot of language skills are taken together with Japanese children in regular classes to create an environment that is easy for foreign children to blend into. Therefore, individual timetables must be made suitable for each foreign child. It usually takes three to four months before each child understands an introductory level of Japanese language. An instructor of Japanese language also gives guidance on matters of everyday life to these foreign children so that they can adapt to the school environment (Izumo City Municipal Office 2019; Yahoo News 2019). These well-prepared Japanese learning programs for foreign children have been appreciated by their parents, one reason for the high rate of foreign residents settling in the municipality of Izumo-shi. Multicultural and multinational symbiosis may seem easy, but is difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the Multicultural Symbiosis Promotion Plan implemented by Izumo-shi seems to have proved that getting foreign workers with their families settled in the municipality would be one of the most effective strategies for the population decline in Japan. Notes 1.

2.

3.

4.

In proposing the relocation of the Cultural Affairs Agency from Tokyo to Kyoto, local officials noted that about half of Japan’s designated national treasures are based in the Kansai region, as well as about 40% of its important cultural properties (Japan Times 2016). In April 2020, the Japanese government will establish the Consumer Agency New Future Creation Strategy Headquarters (tentative name) in Tokushima City. However, the idea of the full relocation of the agency was deterred. That is, operations that require external coordination such as parliamentary response, crisis management, and system development will continue to be conducted in Tokyo (Asahi Shinbun Digital 2019b). The GTFS-JP (General Transit Feed Specification Japan) is the Standard Bus Information Format data, and is prepared by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in March 2017 (GTFS-JP 2019). The word “cloud” is different between “cloud service” and “crowdfunding” which is discussed in the next section. In Japanese pronunciation there is no difference between the sound of “l” and “r”. To most Japanese, therefore, it is difficult to differentiate these two sounds, which would be difficult to understand to a native speaker of English. It is a well-known fact that Japanese people often make mistakes in pronouncing such words as “love vs. rub,” “free vs. flea,” “lane vs. rain,” etc.

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Kintone is Cybozu’s cloud service that allows one to easily create a system tailored to one’s business without knowledge of computer language. Business apps can be created intuitively and shared within the team. It also has the function of an in-house SNS that activates connections between employees. Thus, team members can share information quickly (Cybozu 2019). 6. On the 12th of October 2019 Marumori-machi suffered tremendous damage due to the unprecedented heavy rains of Typhoon Hagibis (called as Typhoon No. 19 in Japan), and many of its functions were paralyzed. It is heartbreaking to know that it will take many years to recover from the disaster. The severity of the disaster was reported by news media such as “Both the plight and the resurgence … Voice from the disaster area delivered by SNS-~-, Miyagi Marumori-machi-~-. https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2019-10-17—boththe-plight-and-the-resurgence—-voice-from-the-disaster-area-delivered-bysns-~-miyagi-marumorimachi-~-%7C-nhk-news-.SJW0603rKB.html (NHK News 2019). 7. Customer relationship management (CRM) is the combination of practices, strategies and technologies that companies use to manage and analyze customer interactions and data throughout the customer lifecycle, with the goal of improving customer service relationships and assisting in customer retention and driving sales growth. CRM systems compile customer data across different channels, or points of contact between the customer and the company, which could include the company’s website, telephone, live chat, direct mail, marketing materials and social media. CRM systems can also give customer-facing staff detailed information on customers’ personal information, purchase history, buying preferences and concerns (Whatis. com 2019). https://searchcustomerexperience.techtarget.com/definition/CRMcustomer-relationship-management. Accessed 18 Aug 2019. 8. Ad hoc analysis is a business intelligence (BI) process designed to answer a single, specific business question. Users may create a report that does not already exist or drill deeper into a static report to get details about accounts, transactions or records (Whatis.com 2019). https://searchbusinessanalytics.techtarget.com/ definition/adhoc-analysis. Accessed 18 Aug 2019. 9. The Kyoto Animation Arson Case (Kyoto Animation Hokajiken) is an arson case that occurred in Fushimi Ward, Kyoto City, Kyoto on July 18, 2019. It is often treated as an arson-murder case. A man invaded the first studio of Kyoto Animation, spread gasoline and ignited it, causing 74 persons involved in the company to suffer injuries, 35 of whom died (The Guardian 2019). 10. A social networking service (SNS) is an online vehicle for creating relationships with other people who share an interest, background, or real relationship. Social networking service users create a profile with personal information, photos, etc. and form connections with other profiles. These users then use their connection to grow relationships through sharing, emailing, instant messaging, and commenting. Social networking services may also be referred to as a “social networking site” or simply “social media.” For more in detail on SNS

8.3 Immigration: A New Strategy for Municipal Revitalization

11.

12.

13.

14.

15.

16.

17.

259

refer to “Social Networking Service – SNS” at https://www.investopedia.com/ terms/s/social-networking-service-sns.asp#targetText=A%20social%20netw orking%20service%20(SNS,form%20connections%20with%20other%20prof iles. Accessed 21 Oct 2019. The QR (Quick Response) code is something which small business owners and entrepreneurs need to be aware of since it is increasingly becoming an important tool. The QR code is basically a natural extension of the conventional barcode, which has been around since the mid-1970s on everything from supermarket groceries to large container shipments. It was designed in 1994 for Japanese auto-makers by Denso to track car parts. Now it is being used by big companies and small businesses (Small business Trends 2019). AsMama, Inc. is an organization which supports establishment of a satisfactory child-rearing environment between neighbors and local people. http://asm ama.jp/. Accessed 25 Aug 2019. On July 1, 2005, the 12 municipalities of the Tenryu River and the Lake Hamana region were merged to form the new “Hamamatsu City,” the largest city in Shizuoka Prefecture with a population of 800,000. In 2007, the city became a government-designated city. The Hamamatsu city system, which began in the Meiji era, celebrated its 100th anniversary in 2011, and commemorative events were held throughout the year. Today the city is working to become creative, where new values for industries and cultures will emerge and be cultivated. (Hamamatsu City Office 2016) https://www.city.hamamatsu.shizuoka. jp/koho2/intro/ayumi01.html. Accessed 26 Aug 2019. SPACEMARKET (Space Market, Inc.) offers an easy and one-stop service from booking to payment for about 6,000 unique spaces from rental conference rooms to private accommodations. https://www.spacemarket.com/about/ service. Accessed 26 Aug 2019. CloudWorks Inc. operates a comprehensive crowdsourcing site of the same name. It provides online services to match home workers and employers, perform business, and pay remuneration (CloudWorks Inc. https://crowdworks. co.jp/. Accessed 26 Aug 2019). Chakuchigata Kanko (community-based tourism) is a new form of tourism in which tourist destinations organize programs unique to the local community, where the participants gather and tour the local area. It is expected to lead to regional promotion compared to the traditional “departure type tourism,” which is planned mainly by travel agencies in the city and taking participants to their destinations. (“Keywords” and “What is landing-type tourism” in the Kotobank Asahi Shimbun https://kotobank.jp/word/%E7%9D%80%E5%9C%B0%E5% 9E%8B%E8%A6%B3%E5%85%89-892707. Accessed 26 Aug 2019. There are two different kinds of statistics on foreign residents in Japan. One comes from the “Gaikokujin suu” (Number of Foreign Residents in Japan) of the national census administered once every five years. The other is on the “Zairyuu Gaikokujin Toukei” (Registered Aliens in Japan) compiled by the Ministry of Justice every year. Numbers registered to these statistics each year differs, and

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those in the national census are about 75–80% of those compiled by the Ministry of Justice (Ishikawa 2011). 18. Newcomers are foreign residents in Japan from China, Brazil, and the Philippines whose number increased drastically since 1990. Of them Chinese resides mostly in rural depopulated farming regions, and they are foreign wives to Japanese husbands, trainees, and/or technical interns. Brazilian residents, on the other hand, are concentrated in the industrial areas of Tokai regions such as Shizuoka and Aichi Prefectures. Foreign residents from the Philippines reside widely throughout Japan; those who reside in remote islands or depopulated regions are most likely wives of Japanese husbands, rather than trainees or technical interns. Oldcomers, on the other hand, are descendants of Taiwanese and Koreans who migrated into Japanese main islands prior to World War II when they were under Japanese occupation. They are often called Zainichi (living in Japan) (Ishikawa 2011). 19. Izumo Murata Manufacturing was established in 1983 as part of the Murata Manufacturing Group, which supplies the world’s most advanced electronic components, and has grown as a core base for supplying ceramic capacitors supported by customers and many other stakeholders. (From the President messages, Izumo Murata Manufacturing, https://www.murata.com/ja-jp/group/ izumomurata/corporate/message. Accessed 5 Feb 2020.)

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Kumagai, F. (2015a). International marriage in Japan: A strategy to maintain rural farm households, Chapter 4. In F. Kumagai (Eds.), Family issues on marriage, divorce, and older adults in Japan: With special attention to regional variations. Springer Nature. Kumagai, F. (2015b). Intercultural marriage migration in Japan, Chapter 3. In E. Heikkila & D. Rauhut (Eds.), Marriage migration and multicultural relationships. Turku, Finland: Institute of Migration. Kumagai, F. (2018). Chiikiryoku de Tachimukau Jinkou Genshou Shakai: Chiisana Jichitai no Chiiki Saisei Saku [Declining population and municipal power in Japan: Policies for Area revitalization of small municipalities]. Kyoto: Minerva-shobo. Mainichi Shimbun. (2018). Izumo-shi, sakunendo matsu ni gaikokujin go-nen teijyuritsu 30% koe [Izumo city: Foreigners 5 years settlement rate more than 30%, by the end of fiscal year 2017]. Local issue of December 13th. https://mainichi.jp/articles/20181213/ddl/k32/040/380 000c. Accessed 1 Feb 2020. Marumori Town Office. (2019). Marumori town official website. http://www.town.marumori.miy agi.jp/. Accessed 18 Aug 2019. Masuda, H. (Ed.). (2014). Chihou Shoumetsu [Disappearing local regions]. Tokyo: Chukou-shinsho. Masuda City Office. (2017). Heisei 28 nendo ICT wo katsuyou shita jizokukanouna chiikiennei moderu no kouchiku jisshojikken seika houkokusho [Report on the community building experiments by using ICT and cloud data base: 2017] 21st of June. https://www.city.masuda.lg.jp/upl oaded/attachment/5429.pdf. Accessed 17 Aug 2019. Masuda City Office. (2019). Masuda-shi no jinko: Reiwa 5-gatsu matsu genzi [Population of Masuda city, as of May 31, 2019]. https://www.city.masuda.lg.jp/soshiki/3/detail-51775.html. Accessed 17 Aug 2019. Menju, T. (2019). Gaikokujin ukeire seisaku to nihon no mirai [Historic immigration law reform of 2019, and the future of Japan]. January 23 issue of nippon.com. https://www.nippon.com/ja/indepth/a06004/. Accessed 20 Jan 2020. Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare [MHLW]. (2020). Gaikokujin koyo jyoukyou no todokede jyoukyou: Reiwa Gannenn 10-gatsu matsu genzai [Notification of foreign employment status: As of 31st of October 2019], released 31st of January. https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_09109. html. Accessed 1 Feb 2020. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications [MIAC]. (2014). Chihou Chuusu Kyoten Toshiken Koso [Regional hub base urban area plan] established on the 25th of August. http://www. soumu.go.jp/menu_news/s-news/01gyosei03_02000024.html. Accessed 8 Aug 2019. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2018). Heisei 30-nen ban joho hakusho [White paper on information and communication in Japan 2018], published in July. http://www. soumu.go.jp/johotsusintokei/whitepaper/h30.html. Accessed 17 Aug 2019. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2019a). ICT Chiiki kasseika pootaru [Regional activation portal utilizing ICT]. http://www.soumu.go.jp/main_sosiki/joho_tsusin/top/ local_support/ict/. Accessed 15 Aug 2019. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2019b). Jumin kihon daicho ni motoduku jinko, jinkodoutai oyobi setaisuu: Heisei 31-nenn 1-gatsu 1-nichi genzai [Population, demographics, and number of households based on the basic resident register: as of the 1st of January 2019], released on the 10th of July. https://www.soumu.go.jp/menu_news/s-news/01gyosei02_0 2000193.html. Accessed 4 Feb 2020. Ministry of Justice. (2019). Zairyu gaikoku jin suu: Reiwa gannnenn 6-gatsu matsu genzai [Resident aliens in Japan as of June 30 2019]. News release on the 25th of October. http://www.moj.go.jp/ nyuukokukanri/kouhou/nyuukokukanri04_00083.html and http://www.moj.go.jp/housei/toukei/ toukei_ichiran_touroku.html. Accessed 30 Jan 2020. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism [MLIT]. (2019). Kanko hakusho [White paper on tourism in Japan: 2019], released June 21. http://www.mlit.go.jp/statistics/file000008. html. Accessed 23 Aug 2019. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism [MLIT], Civil Aviation Bureau. (2019). Mujin koukuki (doroon rajikonki nado) no hikou ruuru [Japan’s safety rules on unmanned aircraft

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(UA)/Drone], July 24. https://www.mlit.go.jp/koku/koku_tk10_000003.html. Accessed 14 Aug 2019. Naka-cho Town Office. (2019). http://www.town.tokushima-naka.lg.jp/gyosei/. Accessed 14 Aug 2019. Nakatsugawa City Office. (2019a). Koukyou koutsu oopun deeta saisentan inaka heno chousen [Challenge to make the public transportation schedule open data]. Last updated on April 16. http://www.city.nakatsugawa.gifu.jp/page/083350.html. Accessed 15 Aug 2019. Nakatsugawa City Office. (2019b). Nakatsugawa city homepage. http://www.city.nakatsugawa.gif u.jp. Accessed 15 Aug 2019. NHK. (2018). Kizuite kudasai, watakushitachi ha kokoni imasu [Please notice, we are here]. Tuesday, December 25. https://www.nhk.or.jp/seikatsu-blog/cat-12321/311770.html. Accessed 5 Feb 2020. NHK News. (2019). Both the plight and the resurgence … Voice from the disaster area delivered by SNS—Miyagi Marumori-machi—, NHK News 2019-10-17T10:13:25.799Z. https://www. tellerreport.com/news/2019-10-17—both-the-plight-and-the-resurgence—-voice-from-the-dis aster-area-delivered-by-sns-~-miyagi-marumorimachi-~-%7C-nhk-news-.SJW0603rKB.html. Accessed 21 Oct 2019. Nikkei, B. P. (2016). Chiho jichitai hatsu honkakuteki dejitaru marketing! Miyagi-ken Marumorimachi wa kuraudo katsuyou de jinko gensho ni tachimukau [Full-scale digital marketing from local government! Marumori-machi, Miyagi, Prefecture will fight against population decline by using cloud]. http://special.nikkeibp.co.jp/atcl/BPN/15/DTrans/000051/. November issue of Digital Transformation. Accessed 18 Aug 2019. Nikkei Digital. (2016). Kuraudo fandingu 34 to-do-fu-ken ga katsuyo [34 prefectures are utilizing crowdfunding for community building]. July 30, @12:30. https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGX LASFB25H9R_Q6A730C1MM0000/. Accessed 21 Aug 2019. Nikkei Business Daily. (2019). Doroon jitsuyouka, chihou ga senkou [Utilization of drones-local municipalities are more advanced than central cities] 10th of July issue, @18:00. https://www. nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO47189110Q9A710C1XY0000/. Accessed 14 Aug 2019. Osaka Municipal Library. (2019). Osaka city library digital archive. http://image.oml.city.osaka.lg. jp/archive/. Accessed 16 Aug 2019. Sentai Filmworks. (2019). HelpKyoAniHeal. Created July 18, 2019. https://www.gofundme.com/f/ help-kyoani-heal. Accessed 22 Aug 2019. Sharing Economy Lab. (2017). Shoyu kara kyouyuu he—Chihou kadai no kaiketsu ya chihousousei wo ninau shearing ekonomi no katachi [From “owned” to “shared”–the model of a sharing economy being effective for solving local issues and creating local communities] May 9th. http:// sharing-economy-lab.jp/share-regional-revitalization. Accessed 25 Aug 2019. Shimabra City Office. (2017). Sharing city Shimabara. https://www.city.shimabara.lg.jp/page4437. html?type=search&q=%ef%bc%b4%ef%bc%a1%ef%bc%a2%ef%bc%a9%ef%bc%a3%ef% bc%a1&radiobutton=4&now_P=1&show_num=20&sc_id=2. Accessed 26 Aug 2019. Updated on December 18. Shimane Prefectural Office. (2019). Shimane-ken no gaikokujin jyuumin jinkou [The population of foreign residents in Shimane Prefecture]. https://www.pref.shimane.lg.jp/life/international/kou ryu/kokusai/data/touroku.html. Accessed 2 Feb 2020. Shinshinotsu Village Office. (2019). https://www.vill.shinshinotsu.hokkaido.jp/. Accessed 15 Aug 2019. Small Business Trends. (2019). What is a QR code and how does it work?. https://smallbiztrends. com/2015/05/what-is-a-qr-code.html. Accessed 23 Aug 2019. Statistics Bureau, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication [MIAC]. (2019). Jumin kihon daicho jinko ido houkoku [Annual report on internal migration in Japan derived from the basic resident registration]. https://www.stat.go.jp/data/idou/sankouhyo.html. Accessed 7 Aug 2019. Taku City Office. (2018). Shearingu shiti sengen—lokaru sharing jigyo [Sharing city declarationlocal sharing business]. Commerce and Tourism Division, updated December 10. https://www. city.taku.lg.jp/main/9042.html. Accessed 2 Aug 2019.

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United Nations. (2019). World population prospects 2019, 26th ed. UN, DESA, Population Division, released on the 17th of June. https://population.un.org/wpp/. Accessed 5 Aug 2019. WheeLog!. (2019). WheeLog! Home-Page. https://www.wheelog.com/hp/. Accessed 16 Aug 2019. Yahoo News. (2019). Kazoku to teijyuu suru gaikokujin roudousha—Kodomo no nihongo kyouiku, jyuumin tono kyousei ni dou torikumu [Foreign workers who settle in Japanese communities with their families–how to work on “Japanese education for children” and “symbiosis with residents].” March 13th issue. https://news.yahoo.co.jp/feature/1261. Accessed 5 Feb 2020. Yano Research Institute. (2018). Kokunai kuraudofandingu shijyo [Crowdfunding market in Japan]. Yano Research Institute Market Research Report No. 2036, press release December 3rd. https:// www.yano.co.jp/press-release/show/press_id/2036. Accessed 20 Aug 2019.

Epilogue: The Future of Japanese Population and Society

Unresolved Issues and Future Research Understanding data can aid in identifying areas that will contribute to community revitalization. Before anything else, we must know where in Japan it is located, and why population increase/decrease occurs there. Only when we know the locations and factors for population decline, can we step forward for revitalization. Let us reiterate then, the very first step for regional revitalization is to know the region’s own municipal power, positive and negative. At the same time, we must admit that there are some unresolved issues in the current study. We are most willing to set them as essential themes for the future research of community revitalization in Japan. At this point we can identify two essential unresolved issues for future research.

Further Analyses of Municipal Power and Regional Revitalization First, we emphasized such municipal power as marriage power, household type, and economic indicators for the population-sustaining power of municipalities. Marriage power seems to be one of the most significant contributing factors for populationsustaining power. Nevertheless, we must admit some prefectures and/or municipalities are affected very little by marriage power in sustaining their population. Thus, additional indicators which contribute to the population increase and/or decline need to be identified. Furthermore, with these various municipal power measurements, a more advanced level of multilinear statistical analyses needs to be conducted. As we have discussed in Chap. 8, in Society 5.0modern ICT programs can help to facilitate regional revitalization in various manners. Of most importance, however, is the people’s determination to assess their municipal power, both strengths and weaknesses as has been proved in the case of Ama-cho in Shimane Prefecture (see © Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 F. Kumagai, Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4234-3

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Chap. 7). Then, how can we measure psychological and subjective dimensions of human beings, as factors in regional revitalization? In our future research we need to explore some other aspects of municipal power which may pursue regional revitalization more effectively, and deliberate the methods for measurement as well. With relation to these factors one notable municipality, where the annual population growth rate is remarkably high, has been brought to our attention. It is Chibumura in Shimane Prefecture, located on the small southern island of Ama-cho called Chiburi-jima. As is the case of other municipalities on remote isolated islands the population of Chibu-mura has been declining ever since 1980 (1980, 1,068; 2015, 615; 2045 projected, 315, IPSSR 2018). More recent statistics published by Nikkei on population growth rate by municipality, however, showed a somewhat amazing result (Nikkei 2019a, b, c, d).1 That is, as of January 1, 2019 the population growth rate of Chibu-mura ranked second of all municipalities in Japan (population: 638, growth rate: 3.91%, Nikkei 2019a). The growth rate of the child population of Chibu-mura ranked 6th highest (10.77%, Nikkei 2019b); and the working-age population, 2nd (5.77%, Nikkei 2019c), but no ranking was found for the older-adult population among the top 50 municipalities, nor among the top 10 of the 19 municipalities in Shimane Prefecture (Nikkei 2019d). Furthermore, during the year from October 2015 to September 2016, of all the 19 municipalities in Shimane Prefecture, the population of 17 cities and towns decreased, but the population of Chibu-mura increased along with Izumoshi. The population increase rate (3.25%) and the rate of social increase (4.55%) of Chibu-mura are among the top in the group, and the situation should be called the “Miracle of Chibu-mura” (Chibu Village Office 2018, and Chap. 7 of this book). Why does this population growth occur in Chibu-mura? In 2011, in uncertain times, the people could not look optimistically to the future. The village broke the negative chain with consciousness, and the people worked together with a spirit of determination, and a creative viewpoint to begin a new era on their own. They established Joint CompanyShimamori Chiburi in Chibu-mura in 2018 (Joint Company Shimamori Chiburi 2019). Then, the Fifth Chibu Village General Promotion Plan was formulated, with the goal of a lively village and a lively island (Chibu Village Office 2018) . The plan is similar to what had been successfully pursued by the adjacent town of Ama-cho as discussed in Chap. 7of this book (Ama Town Office 2015). These efforts are not directly measurable, but seem to have been shown in actual statistical results of demographic data.

1 “The Population Growth Rate Ranking 2019” is based on the data of the Population, Demographics

and Number of Households Based on Basic Resident Register released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications in July 2019 (as of January 1, 2019). It ranks the rate of population change during the year from January to December. Similar reports have been published on the growth rate for child populations (Nikkei 2019b), for working populations (Nikkei 2019c), and for older adult populations (Nikkei 2019d). These rankings are based on the rate of change, rather than the population changes. The aim is to visualize a relatively small municipality with a growing population.

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267

Further Analyses Within Prefectural Variations of Municipal Power Needed Based on the Goki-Shichido, and Provinces Second, we have made deliberate efforts in taking the Goki-Shichido provinces, particularly, as our theoretical framework to examine regional differences in municipal power, especially within the same prefecture. We were successful in examining such prefectures as Tokyo (Musashi vs. Izu) and Aichi (Owari vs. Mikawa) of the Tokaido region, Aomori (Tsugaru vs. Nanbu) and Yamagata (Murayama vs. Mogami vs. Okitama vs. Shonai) of the Tosando region, Osaka (Settsu vs. Kawachi vs. Izumi) of the Kinai region, Shimane (Izumo vs. Iwami vs. Oki) of the Sannindo region, Kochi (Tosa) of the Nankaido region, and Fukuoka (Chikuzen vs. Chikugo vs. Buzen) of the Saikaido region. Nevertheless, we need to test municipal power in other prefectures noted for variations. Some examples are Nagano Prefecture of the Tosando region (Nagano vs. Ueda vs. Saku vs. Matsumoto vs. Ina), Shizuoka Prefecture (Shizuoka vs. Hamamatsu), and Mie Prefecture (Iga vs. Ise vs. Shima) of the Tokaido region, Hiroshima Prefecture (Hiroshima vs. Fukuyama) of the Sannyodo region, and Fukui Prefecture (Wakasa vs. Echizen), Ishikawa Prefecture (Kaga vs. Noto), and Niigata Prefecture (Echigo vs. Sado) of the Hokurikudo region. If and only if we know these prefectural, the Goki-Shichido and provincial variations can we say that our efforts in taking the Goki-Shichido as our theoretical framework for regional revitalization is validated.

Concluding Remarks Then, what would be the future of Japanese population? As pointed out at the beginning of this book, Japanese society as a whole is facing and will continue to face the problem of a population-declining society, yet regional variations will be here to stay. Studies in this book proved that there are significant degrees of regional variations in the population decline of each local municipality. The same can be said within the same prefecture as well as across prefectures. This is especially clear when we examined the local municipalities of prefectures where the population is declining significantly. There are many local municipalities where the population is declining, but they have developed unique programs which resulted in regional revitalization. What is most necessary for regional revitalization is a future-oriented approach to learning the municipal power unique to each local municipality and utilizing it for future development. With the high level of various types of ICT-related technological developments the shortage of manpower may not be too much of the problem. Nevertheless, analyses of municipal power cannot be done by artificial intelligence (AI), but could be done so through the natural human intelligence. Thus, we must ask, “What will happen to the surviving and disappearing regions?” Based on the current study the author of this book believes that Japanese population in the future will be concentrated around

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the Tokaido of the Goki-Shichido, and some other densely populated regions that remain connected to these concentrated regions. As for small municipalities scattered throughout Japan only those who are successful in maintaining their own identity of unique municipal power will survive. They will be smart municipalities connected not only to the outer populated regions of Japan, but also to global societies through highly developed network and virtual space. Perhaps, the main transportation system in such municipalities would become “Mobility as a Service” (MaaS) including such as remotely operated automobile, or a large drone, serving as a flying bus or car. Regrettably enough, however, population aging and the shrinking of Japan and the world as well will not cease but will continue. Local municipalities can achieve regional revitalization, by generating awareness by local residents, establishing autonomy, and being oriented toward the future. As of 2040 and/or 2045, it seems to be the inevitable reality that the population decline will progress throughout Japan. Now that we take the inevitable reality, the introduction of municipal power unique to local municipalities will revitalize the local communities in cooperation with regional industry, culture, nature, and very importantly, with foreign tourists, and newcomers of foreign residents. These regional revitalization methods may not increase resident population, but they will surely increase those who are interested in, connected, and related to these municipalities, especially in the era of Society 5.0. We believe, therefore, our studies on “Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan: Goki-Shichidoand Regional Variations” are significant in shedding light on the unexplored field. Let us hope and end our discussion by praying that the best use of municipal power comes true in the not too distant future, certainly before today’s municipalities disappear. People in Japan, and throughout the world, now live amid a pandemic, caused by a very small coronavirus (COVID-19) which is killing many of us. We must adopt and adjust to lifestyles different from those we are used to. The author of this book hopes that under these circumstances what has been discussed in the present study, especially a new way to look at and live in the shrinking Japanese society might give suggestions for generating a new perspective for pursuing our lives in this difficult time.

References

Ama Town Office. (2015). Ama-cho sousei sougou sennryaku-jinkou bijyon [The population revitalization strategy of Ama-cho—the population vision]. 30th of October. http://www.town.ama. shimane.jp/topics/pdf/amaChallengePlan2015.pdf. Accessed 20 June 2019. Chibu Village Office. (2018). Chiburi-jima no sangyo fuukei hito niyoru koyo soshutsu purojekuto [For business, sightseeing spots, and people to produce work opportunities in the village of Chibur, and the island of Chiburi] Original October 16, 2016, updated and enacted on August 31. https:// www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/tiiki/tiikisaisei/dai51nintei/plan/y395.pdf. Accessed 1 Sept 2019. Institute of Population and Social Security Research [IPSSR]. (2018). Nihon no Chiikibetsu Shourai Suikei Jinko: Heisei 27-Heisei 57 [Regional Population Projections for Japan: 2015–2045]. http:// www.ipss.go.jp/pp-shicyoson/j/shicyoson18/t-page.asp. Accessed 31 Mar 2018. Nikkei, B. P. (2019a). Jinko zogenritsu raking 2019 [The population growth rate ranking 2019]. https://project.nikkeibp.co.jp/atclppp/071000017/071200002/. Accessed 29 Aug 2019. Nikkei, B. P. (2019b). Nensho jinko zogenritsu ranking 2019 [The child population growth rate ranking 2019]. https://project.nikkeibp.co.jp/atclppp/071000017/071200003/. Accessed 29 Aug 2019. Nikkei, B. P. (2019c). Seisan nenrei jinko zogenritsu ranking 2019 [The working population growth rate ranking 2019]. https://project.nikkeibp.co.jp/atclppp/071000017/071200004/. Accessed 29 Aug 2019. Nikkei, B. P. (2019d). Ronen jinko zogenritsu ranking 2019 [The older adult population growth rate ranking 2019]. https://project.nikkeibp.co.jp/atclppp/071000017/071200005/. Accessed 29 Aug 2019.

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 F. Kumagai, Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4234-3

269

Author Index

A ABI, Inc., 209, 225 Aichi Prefecture Office, 88, 104 Akira, M., 109, 148 Akita City Office, 182, 188 Amagasaki Municipal Archive, 101 Ama Town Office, 205–210, 225, 266 Amino, Y., 21, 155 Aomori Prefectural Government, 155–157, 168, 169 Asahi Shinbun digital, 233, 257 Asai, K., 20, 21, 76, 78, 86 Assmann, S., 18

B Berners-Lee, T., Sir, 35 Butler, N.R., 98

C Cabinet Office (CAO), 4, 72, 236 Cabinet Secretariat of Japan, 17 Cheng, 225 Chiba City Office, 247 Chibu Village Office, 266 Chuo City Library, 84 Chuo City Office, 84, 85 Community Travel Guide Editorial Board, 205 Conversation, 2 Cybozu, 241, 258

D DRONE PRESS, 238

E Economic Journal of Japan, 2 Eigo de Nihon, 225

F Fujimasa, I., 2 Fujimoto, T., 67 Fujisawa City Council, 154, 186 Fujiyama, H., 13 Fukuda, H., 67 Fukuoka-kencho, 122, 123, 125

G Gamou, M., 18 Guardian, 2, 258

H Hamamatsu City Office, 248, 259 Hara, T., 18, 39, 59, 63, 68 Hasumi, O., 18 Higashine City, 153, 182–186 Hiroshima, K., 18 Hisashige, T., 13 Horiuchi, T., 23

I Ichikawa, H., 67 Iida, Y., 13, 17 Imai, T., 23 Immigration Services Agency of Japan, 252 IPSSR, 1, 3–7, 9, 10, 12–16, 26, 36, 37, 41, 43–45, 48, 51, 55, 59, 62, 68, 69, 71, 87, 97, 110, 113, 115, 120, 122, 127,

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 F. Kumagai, Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4234-3

271

272 128, 131, 132, 139, 143–145, 147, 161, 163, 166, 168, 177, 178, 181, 183, 184, 200, 201, 207, 215, 216, 221, 230, 241, 242, 266 Ishiba, S., 25 Ishikawa, Y., 65, 229, 251, 252, 267 Itoman City Office, 239 Iwanami-shoten, 13 Izumo City Municipal Office, 256, 257

J Jansen, M.B., 21 Japan Ecotourism Society (JES), 168 Japan Times, 257 J-CAST, 238 JNTO, 244 Joint Company Shimamori Chiburi, 266 Jomon Japan, 155

K Kanda, Y., 256 Kankyo-sho, 169 Kan-Shirakami Exotourism Suishin Kyogikai, 170 Kido, H., 17 Kinoshita, A., 13, 123 Knight, J., 18 Kodansha, 76, 79, 90, 122, 123, 138, 149, 188, 212 Kokudo Chiri-inn, 78 Kreiner, J., 18 Kumagai, F., 1, 3–6, 10, 11, 14, 15, 18, 20– 22, 24, 33, 37, 39, 51, 54, 55, 63, 64, 67, 75, 107, 112, 153, 155, 182–185, 193, 199, 229, 235, 236, 238, 241, 243–248, 251, 252 Kyoto University of Foreign Studies, 187

L Lutzeler, R., 18

M Mainichi Shimbun, 256 MARKETPLACE, 2 Marumamori Town Office, 242 Masuda, H., 13, 17, 67, 196, 241 Matanle, P., 18 Matsue City Municipal Office, 198 Matsumoto, S., 199, 267 Matsutani, A., 2

Author Index Menju, T., 253 MHLW, 3, 12, 59, 63, 145, 184, 201, 207, 216, 221, 222, 251–253 MIAC, 5, 6, 14, 22, 27, 34, 36, 37, 40, 42, 70, 72, 112, 126, 127, 140, 168, 181, 187, 201, 216, 233, 234, 238–241, 246, 249, 254 Mikurajima-mura Office, 86, 87 Mikurajima Tourism Association, 87 Ministry of Justice, 135, 248, 260 Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), 170, 171, 185, 237, 244, 245 Miyanishi, Y., 24 MLIT, Bureau of the Tohoku Region, 171 Morioka, K., 64, 72, 157, 160 Motani, K., 17 N Nagakute City, 96, 97 Nagakute City Tourism Exchange Association, 96 Nagakute Tourism Association, 98 Nagayama, K., 22 Nagoya International Center, 101 Nakamura, M., 18 Nakatsugawa.City Office, 239 National Interest, 2 NHK, 194, 212, 256, 258 NHK News Web, 194, 212 Nikkei Asian Review, 110, 149 Nikkei BP, 115, 242, 266 Nikkei Business Daily, 237 Nishimeya-mura Shokuin Kumiai, 166 Nishimeya-mura Yakuba, 165, 168 Nogyo Kumiai Shinbun, 87, 188 NPO Create Higashine, 185, 188 O Odagiri, T., 13 OECD, 3, 26 Okada, T., 23 Oki Islands UNESCO Geopark Promotion Committee, 206 Okinawa Prefectural Government, 108, 109, 114, 115 Open Knowledge International, 34 Open Knowledge Japan, 34 OPN-LA, 110 Osaka Convention & Tourism Bureau, 138, 149 Osaka Municipal Library 2019, 240

Author Index Osaka Prefectural Government, 139 Otoyo-cho History Editorial Board, 220, 221 Otoyo-cho Kankou, 226 Otoyo-Peony Society, 222, 223 Otoyo-Town, 219, 221–224 Ouchi, T., 18 Owada, N., 209 P Prime Minister’s Office of Japan, 17 R Rausch, A. S., 18 Ryukyu Shimpo, 110 S Saito, S., 209, 225 Sakai City Office, 149 Sanseido, 211 Sato, Y., 18 Senti Filmworks, 243 Sharing Economy Lab, 246, 247 Shiba, R., 20, 90, 174 Shimabara City Office, 248 Shimane Prefectural Government, 195–197 Shimane Prefectural Office, 254 Shimizu, H., 18, 64, 67, 78, 125 Shinshinotsu Village Office, 238, 239 Shirakawa, M., 4 Shogakukan, 154 Small Business Trends, 259 Statistics Bureau, 2, 5, 6, 9, 10, 13, 14, 26, 36, 37, 52, 59, 69, 70, 72, 112, 115, 121, 126, 127, 132, 138, 140, 233 Suzuki, R., 34 T Tabirai, 117–120, 149 Tajiri-cho Town Office, 144, 145, 147 Takemitsu, M., 88, 90, 109, 137, 155–157, 174, 196, 199, 211, 212

273 Taku City Office, 248 Tamaki, T., 54, 110 Tanaka, M., 110 Thompson, C. S., 18 Toei Board of Education, 101 Toei Town Office, 99 Tohoku Regional Agricultural Administration Office, 183 Toyokeizai Shinpo-sha, 103 Traphagan, J. W., 18 Tsugaru Navi, 171 Tsugaru Shirakami Tour, 171

U UNESCO World Heritage Center, 169 UNICEF, 00 United Nations, 2, 26, 230

W Wakasa Obama Tourist Bureau, 225 Washington Post-WorldViews, 2 Watanabe, S., 209 Whatis.com, 258 WheeLog!, 240 World Economic Forum, 2

Y Yahoo News, 257 Yamada, M., 4, 119 Yamagata Prefectural Government, 172–174 Yamauchi, M., 209, 212, 220, 221, 226 Yano Research Institute, 242 Yawata, K., 76, 88, 109 Yoshida, Y., 18 Yuuki, T., 14

Z Zamami-son Municipal Office, 112 Zenkoku Cho-Son Kai, 206

Subject Index

Symbols #Help KyoAni Heal, 243 2020 Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics, 85, 244 23 wards of Tokyo, 219

A Abolition of the han system, 144, 166 Abukuma Highlands, 242 Abukuma River, 242 Ad hoc analysis, 242, 258 Age of Provincial Wars, 76, 88 Aging population, 5, 6, 22, 23, 26, 71, 86, 97 Aging society, 2, 5, 6, 98, 230, 253 Agricultural Department of the Kochi University, 222 Aichi, 7, 10, 22, 45, 51, 52, 55, 59, 68–72, 75, 76, 88–93, 95–99, 101, 102, 135, 229, 234, 235, 249, 260, 267 Aichi Kosoku Kotsu Tobu Kyuryou Sen, 97 Aichi Prefecture, 71, 75, 88–93, 95–99, 101, 102, 234, 235, 260 Ainu, 166 Airbnb, 246 Ajigasawa-machi, 165, 168 ajis, 117, 118 Aka-mura, 125, 126, 130 Akashicho, 84 Akita, 15, 16, 41, 42, 46, 47, 54, 55, 59, 63, 65, 67, 153–155, 161, 165, 169, 171, 177, 182, 188, 215, 235, 243, 247 Akita Prefecture, 15, 16, 46, 155, 161, 165, 169, 171, 188, 215, 235, 243, 247 Akita Road, 182 Akou, 211

Ama-cho, 193, 198, 200, 202–210, 225, 254, 265, 266 Amako clan, 196 Amako family, 196 Amawari, 119 aoi, 156 Aomori, 22, 41, 45, 54, 55, 59, 67, 148, 153– 161, 163–166, 168, 169, 172, 177, 186, 188, 215, 229, 234, 267 Aomori Prefecture, 153–166, 172, 177, 186, 188, 234 Aomori shi, 157 App, 243 Ariake Sea, 122 Artificial Intelligence (AI), 122, 237, 238, 242, 267 Asahi-machi, 175 Asakura-shi, 123, 126 Ashikaga, 90 Ashikaga clan, 90 Ashikaga Yoshiuji, 90 Ashiya-machi, 123 Ashizuri-Uwakai National Park, 211 AsMama, Inc., 247 Australia, 244 Automatic translator, 245 Awa Province, 210 Awa Tokushima clan family, 182 Azuma, 172

B Baby boomers, 2, 6, 69 Bakufu, 20 Baku-Han Taisei, 20 Bakuro-cho, 84 Battle of Sekigahara, 174, 196, 212, 226

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020 F. Kumagai, Municipal Power and Population Decline in Japan, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-4234-3

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276 Beijing, 155 Belou, 211 Benibana, 182, 188 Bessho-Kaido, 99 Bhutan, 209 Big data, 34, 245 Bizen, 108, 122, 125 Botayama, 131 Buddhism, 137 Bunkyo-ku, 79 Bushido, 90 Buzen, 107, 123, 126, 129, 234, 267

C Canada, 26, 244 Cape Ashizuri, 211 Cape Muroto-misaki, 211 Cashless payment, 245 Cells Alive System (CAS), 209, 225 Chakuchigata Kanko, 248, 259 Chiba, 7, 9, 13, 26, 48, 51, 52, 55, 59, 63, 67, 69, 72, 75, 225, 233, 235, 247 Chiba Prefecture, 9, 235, 247 Chiba-shi, 247 Chibu-mura, 198, 199, 205, 266 Chiburi-jima, 209, 266 Chiburi-shima, 205 Chien, 24 Chihayaakasaka-mura, 135 Chihou Chuusu Kyoten Toshi-ken Koso, 234 Chihou Sousei Hou, 1, 17, 233 Chiiki, 17, 18 Chiiki-ryoku, 17, 24, 64 Chikamatsu Monzaemon, 137 Chikugo, 107, 108, 123, 126, 234, 267 Chikugo District, 123, 125, 126, 129 Chikugogawa, 122 Chikugo-shi, 125 Chikuho, 107, 123, 125, 126, 129, 130, 234 Chikuho District, 125, 126, 129, 130 Chikujo-machi, 123 Chikushino-shi, 123 Chikuzen, 107, 108, 122, 123, 125–127, 129, 131, 234, 267 Child population, 5, 7, 14, 38, 69, 71, 80, 86, 92, 130, 131, 133, 142, 146, 161, 163, 164, 177, 178, 184, 202, 216, 266 China, 2, 6, 109, 117, 119, 123, 209, 244, 251, 260 Chinen Peninsula, 117 Chiyoda-ku, 79 Chokai, 172

Subject Index Choshu, 197, 225 Choshu Domain, 197 Choshu Expedition, 197, 225 Chosokabe clan, 211, 212 Chosokabe Motochika, 211 Chugoku and Shikoku Regions, 211 Chugoku-chiho, 194 Chugoku District, 194 Chugoku mountains, 195 Chunan, 157, 159, 161, 165 Chuo-ku, 47, 75, 76, 78–85, 102, 235 Chuo-ku of Osaka Prefecture, 235 Chuo-shi, 219 Chuunan District, 159 Class A river, 219, 226 Cloud service, 229, 237, 241, 242, 257, 258 CloudWorks Inc., 248, 259 Cohabiting couples, 4 Cohabiting unions, 4 Comma-Separated Values (CSV), 35 Comprehensive Measures for the Acceptance and Inclusion of Foreign Human Resource, 253 Coronavirus (COVID-19), 244, 268 Crowdfunding, 229, 237, 242, 243, 257 Crude Divorce Rate (CDR), 38, 48, 54, 63 Cultural diffusion, 22 Customer Relationship Management (CMR), 38–40, 43, 48, 51–55, 59, 63, 64, 200, 214, 242, 258 Cybozu Corporation, 241

D Daido period, 166 Daito-shi, 136 Dam Tourism of Nishimeya Dam, 168 Danjiri, 147, 149 Dazaifu, 122, 123 Dazaifu-shi, 123 Declining fertility, 2, 5, 17, 23, 246, 248 de facto partnerships, 3 Depopulation, 14, 18, 22, 55, 115, 168, 206, 208, 233, 238, 246, 248 Dewa, 155, 172 Dewa Province, 153, 154, 172–175, 186 Digital archive system, 240 Disappearing municipalities, 25, 241 Dolphin-watching, 87 Dozen High School, 193, 209, 210 Drones, 229, 237, 238, 268

Subject Index E Eastern Group at the Battle of Sekigahara, 174 East Japan Great Earthquake, 13, 45 East Japan Great Earthquake of 2011, 13 Echigo, 172, 267 Echizen, 267 Ecotourism, 168–170 Edo, 76, 78, 83–86, 88, 109, 123, 137, 156, 157, 172, 182, 188, 212, 221 Edo period, 78, 79, 88, 90, 99, 137, 157, 172, 182, 187, 197, 212, 220 Edo shogunate, 20, 78, 85, 91, 159, 175, 187 Ehime Prefecture, 210, 219 ekiba, 220 ekirei, 220 ekiro, 220 Eki-sei, 220 Emergency Act for Depopulated Area Measures, 168 Emishi, 156, 172 Emperor Godaigo, 196, 206 Emperor Gotoba, 206 Emperor Shomu, 206 Enshu, 99 e-Stat, 12, 22, 36, 66, 96, 249 EvaCva, 16, 33, 37, 43, 45, 47, 48, 51, 52, 82, 93, 95, 97, 103, 116, 134, 145, 146, 164, 165, 168, 180, 181, 186, 203–205, 217–219 Ezo, 19, 156, 172

F Facebook, 243, 245 Family Stay (Kazoku taizai), 256 Fertility decline, 1, 11, 14, 23, 75, 80, 92, 97, 100, 102, 126, 132, 145, 146, 161, 163, 168, 177, 178, 183, 185, 201, 206, 208, 216, 237 Feudal domain system, 21, 174 Fighting dogs, 211 Five-Star Linked Open Data, 35 Foreign brides, 249, 251 Foreign residents, 43, 248, 249, 254, 256, 257, 259, 260, 268 Foreign tourists visiting Japan, 244, 245 Foreign workers, 71, 230, 249, 251–253, 256, 257 France, 5, 26, 183, 244 Fuji-Hakone Izu National Park, 86 Fujiidera-shi, 135 Fujisaki-machi, 159

277 Fukaura-machi, 159, 168 Fukiya-machi, 166 Fukuchi-machi, 125 Fukui Prefecture, 267 Fukuoka, 7, 26, 45, 48, 51, 52, 55, 59, 67, 69, 71, 72, 107, 108, 122–134, 149, 234, 235, 267 Fukuoka District, 107, 122, 123, 126, 127, 129, 130 Fukuoka Prefecture, 22, 71, 107, 108, 122– 134, 149, 234, 235 Fukuoka-shi, 71, 123, 126–134, 238 Fukushima, 45, 48, 62, 63, 65, 67, 154, 161, 171, 177, 188, 242 Fukushima Prefecture, 45, 48, 62, 154, 161, 171, 188, 242 Fukutsu-shi, 123 Fukuyama, 267 Funagata-machi, 175

G Gaikokujingino jisshuu-sei seido, 252 Gassan, 172 G-Census, 7, 15, 16, 33, 37, 43, 45, 46, 48, 51–53, 55, 59, 65, 80, 92, 93, 114, 129, 139, 149, 161–163, 165, 166, 177–179, 181, 202, 203, 205, 216, 217, 219, 250, 255 Generational family household, 11, 51, 64, 65, 67, 79, 85, 91, 110, 126, 141, 159, 175, 176, 198–200, 213 Genkai Sea, 122 Genkai shuraku, 14, 15, 22 Genkai shuuraku, 81 Genki Otoyo, 224 Germany, 26, 244 Gifu Prefecture, 239 Ginowan-shi, 114 Ginoza-son, 115 Ginza, 83, 84 Gojome-machi, 235 Goki, 1, 19, 20, 22, 25, 33, 51, 65, 67, 75, 76, 83, 88–91, 95, 101, 102, 107, 108, 123, 135, 148, 154, 157, 172, 175, 186, 193, 196, 211, 220, 229, 234, 267, 268 Goki-Shichido, 1, 19, 20, 22, 25, 33, 51, 65, 67, 75, 76, 83, 88–91, 95, 102, 107, 108, 123, 135, 148, 154, 157, 172, 175, 186, 193, 196, 211, 229, 230, 234, 267, 268 Gonohe-machi, 159

278 Gosamaru, 118, 119 Gosanke, 90 goshi, 212 Goshogawara-shi, 159 Gotsu-shi, 198 Gozoku, 117 Graying of Japan, 1, 5, 6 Great East Japan Earthquake, 48, 154, 224, 238, 242 Great Kanto Earthquake, 84 Great Merger of Heisei, 22, 88 Great Merger of Showa, 27, 174, 187 Great Mergers of Meiji, 22, 88 Great Mergers of Meiji and Showa, 88 GTFS-JP, 239, 257 Gun, 20, 84, 149 Gusoku, 211, 212, 225 Gusuku, 117, 118 Gyoki, 220

H Habikino-shi, 135 Hachikin, 211 Hachinohe-shi, 159, 160, 163 Haebaru-cho, 114 Haihan chiken, 21, 24, 88, 109, 148, 174 haiku poet, 137, 172 Hamada castle, 197 Hamada-shi, 198, 199, 202 Hamamatsu, 247, 248, 267 Hamamatsu-shi, 247 Han, 1, 20, 67, 75, 102, 144, 157, 166, 234 Hanamatsuri, 100, 101 Hanamigawa-ku, 13 han dynasty, 75, 102, 157 Hannan-shi, 135 Harumi, 84 Hashikami-machi, 159 Health care costs, 2 Heian period, 89, 90, 101, 137, 156, 182, 197, 206 Hibiki Sea, 122 Hiezu-son, 57, 61 Higashidori-mura, 159, 160 Higashi-Mikawa, 88, 91, 92, 95, 99 Higashine Asobia Land, 153, 185, 186 Higashine castle, 182 Higashine family, 182 Higashine-machi, 182, 183 Higashine-mura, 183 Higashine-shi, 59, 153, 154, 171, 176–186 Higashiosaka-shi, 136

Subject Index Hijiri, 100 Hinode-machi, 77 Hinohara-mura, 15, 47, 75, 76, 78–83, 102 Hirakata-shi, 136 Hirakawa-shi, 159 Hiranai-cho, 157 Hirokawa-nachi, 125 Hirosaki, 156, 157 Hirosaki-shi, 159, 165, 166, 168 Hiroshima, 9, 12, 18, 22, 26, 44, 48, 56, 60, 67, 195, 229, 267 Hiroshima Prefecture, 195, 267 Hisayama-machi, 123, 131 Ho, 88 Hokkaido, 7, 19, 21, 55, 63, 67, 187, 209, 238 Hokurikudo, 20, 65, 67, 229, 267 Hong Kong, 26, 244 Honma family, 174 Honshu, 65, 90, 108, 122, 154, 155, 171, 174, 187, 194, 207, 209 Horidome-cho, 84 Horio Yoshiharu, 196 Hosokawa, 90 Hourakuji, 220 Household type, 1, 10, 11, 25, 33, 51, 52, 64, 65, 67, 78, 91, 110, 120, 121, 125, 126, 140, 141, 153, 159, 175, 198, 212, 213, 229, 265 Hyogo, 7, 67, 135, 249

I Ibaraki-shi, 135 Ichiryo, 211, 212 Ichiryo gusoku, 211, 212 Idle assets, 246, 247 ie, 78, 110 Iga, 267 Iggoso, 211 Ihara Saikaku, 137 Iide-machi, 175 Iinan-cho, 197 Iizuka-shi, 125 Ikeda-shi, 135, 141 Ikeda Tsuneoki, 96 Ikkyoku Shuchu, 9, 67 Illegitimate children, 3 Imabetsu-machi, 157, 160–165 Imagawa, 90 Immigration, 71, 194, 222, 224, 244, 248, 252, 253 Imperial House of Yamato, 172

Subject Index Ina, 267 Inakadate-mura, 159 Inbound, 229, 237, 244, 245 Inbound tourism, 229, 237, 244, 245 India, 2, 244 Indonesia, 209, 244 Industrial structure, 168 Information and Communications Technology (ICT), 17, 25, 35, 47, 98, 102, 122, 134, 153, 171, 186, 209, 210, 229, 233–240, 242, 244–247, 252, 265, 267 Inland Sea, 122 Intangible assets, 246 Internet of Things (IoT), 229, 237–242 Irifune, 84 Irimajiri-mura, 99 Iriomote, 108 Ise, 100, 267 Ise-kagura, 100 Ishigaki, 108 Ishikawa Prefecture, 267 Ishizuchi Mountains, 211 Isshiki, 90 Itabashi-ku, 84 Itagaki Taisuke, 212 Italy, 244 Itoda-machi, 125 Itoman-shi, 114, 115, 239 Itoshima-shi, 123 I-turn, 193, 206, 209, 210, 225 Iwade-shi, 59 Iwagaki oyster, 209 Iwakigawa Dam, 171 Iwaki River, 166, 170 Iwami, 193, 194, 196–200, 202, 204, 235, 267 Iwami Province, 196, 197 Iwami region, 193, 196–200, 202, 204 Iwamishugo, 196 Iwami Silver Mine, 196, 197 Iwasa, 96 Iwasaki Yataro, 212 Iwashimizu Hachimangu Shrine, 101 Iwate, 18, 55, 59, 65, 67, 153–155, 157, 160, 177 Izu Islands, 78, 85, 86 Izumi, 107, 108, 135, 140, 142, 148, 149, 267 Izumiotsu-shi, 135 Izumisano-shi, 135, 144 Izumi shi, 135

279 Izumo, 193, 194, 196–200, 202, 205, 230, 234, 235, 253, 254, 256, 257, 266, 267 Izumo Murata Manufacturing Co., Ltd., 256 Izumo Region, 193, 196–199, 202, 205 Izumo-shi, 197, 198, 230, 253, 254, 256, 257, 266 Izumo Shrine, 196, 198 Izu peninsula, 78, 85, 86 Izu Province, 75, 76, 78, 83, 85, 86, 102 J Jakusho-ji, 172 Japan Creation Council, 241 Japanese Population, 1, 4–7, 9, 10, 13–15, 22, 33, 36, 38, 43, 67, 75, 102, 108, 135, 230, 248, 253, 265, 267 Japan Seaside of Honshu, 174 Japan’s Safety Rules on Unmanned Aircraft (UA)/Drone, 237 Jion-ji, 172 Jiyu wa Tosa no sankan yori, 212 Joka machi, 79 Jokyu War, 196 Jomon, 79, 91, 99, 155, 156, 159, 166, 172, 175, 182, 198, 220 Jomon culture, 91, 155, 156, 159, 172, 175, 198 Jomon era, 79, 99, 155, 172, 182 Jori system, 182 joshi, 212 Jyokaku, 137 Jyoufukuji, 220 K Kabuto-cho, 84 Kachidoki, 84 Kadoma-shi, 136 Kagahakusan, 100 Kagawa, 63, 108, 135, 210 Kagawa Prefecture, 210 Kagoshima, 41, 42, 63, 67, 109, 209 Kagura, 101 Kahoku-machi, 175, 182, 183 kaieki, 174, 182, 187 Kaisei-machi, 235 Kaitoku-Do, 137 Kaitoku-Do Library, 137 Kaizuka-shi, 135 Kakinomoto Hitomaro, 196 Kamakura, 76, 90, 99, 100, 156, 174, 196, 206

280 Kamakura era, 90 Kamakura period, 99, 174, 196, 206 Kama-shi, 125 Kamei clan, 197 Kamigata, 137 Kamikita, 157, 159–161, 163, 186 Kaminoyama-shi, 175 Kami-shi, 219 Kamiyama, 174 Kanagawa, 7, 51, 52, 55, 59, 63, 67–69, 72, 75, 76, 83, 135, 233, 235, 249 Kanagawa Prefecture, 76, 233, 235 Kanan-cho, 135 Kanda-machi, 123 Kaneyama-machi, 175 Kanku, 138 Kanrei, 156 Kansai International Airport, 138, 144, 147 Kantobushi spirit, 157 Kashiwara-shi, 136 Kashoji District, 144 Kasuga-shi, 123 Kasuya-cho, 235 Kasuya-machi, 71, 107, 108, 122, 123, 126– 128, 130–134 Katsuren, 117, 119 Katsuren Peninsula, 117 Kawachi, 107, 108, 135, 140, 148, 234, 267 Kawachinagano-shi, 135 Kawakita-machi, 56 Kawamoto-machi, 198 Kawanishi-machi, 175, 176 Kawara-machi, 125 Kawasaki, 26, 48, 76 Kawasaki-machi, 125 Kawasaki-shi, 235 Kayaba-cho, 84 Kayoicho-koen, 134 Keihanshin District, 194 Keisen-machi, 125 Kerosene refugees, 238 Kihachijyo, 85 Kikajin, 137 Kinai, 19, 67, 107, 108, 220, 229, 234, 267 Kin-cho, 115 King Sho Hashi, 119 King Sho Taikyu, 119 Kinnya Monnya, 208 kintone, 241, 258 Kira, 90 Kishiwada Prefecture, 144 Kishiwada-shi, 135 Kiso-gawa, 88

Subject Index Kitajima-cho, 59 Kita-Kawachi, 135, 136, 139 Kita-Kawachi District, 135, 136, 139 Kitakuma, 96 Kita Kyushu, 122 Kitakyushu District, 123, 125, 129, 130 Kitakyushu-shi, 123, 129 Kitanakagusuku-son, 115 Kita-Tama, 76, 77 Kiyome, 100 Koani-mura, 15 Kochi, 45, 54, 55, 59, 177, 193, 194, 210– 217, 219–224, 229, 235, 243, 267 Kochi plain, 211 Kochi Prefecture, 177, 193, 194, 210–217, 219–225, 235, 243 Kochi-shi, 212, 215–219, 224 Kodenma-cho, 84 Koga-shi, 123 Kogiku, 239 Kojiki, 196 Komaki-Nagakute no Tatakai, 96 Konan-shi, 212, 213, 215–218, 224 Kon-katsu, 4 Korea, 6, 26, 101, 109, 244, 251 Korean peninsula, 136, 155 Koshukaido, 83 Kosodate surunara Higashine-shi, 184 Kotake-machi, 125 Kotoku Shusui, 212 Kouge-machi, 123, 130 Kumamoto, 63, 122 Kumatori-cho, 135 Kuni, 20, 76 Kurate-machi, 125 Kuroda-clan, 123 Kuroishi-shi, 159 Kurume-shi, 125, 129 Kusatsu-shi, 235 Kyobashi, 84, 85 Kyobashi Area, 84, 85 Kyobashi-ku, 84 Kyogoku clan, 196 Kyoto, 7, 19, 21, 26, 44, 48, 55, 63, 67, 75, 76, 84, 101, 135, 137, 173, 174, 187, 195, 196, 220, 233, 243, 257, 258 Kyoto Animation, 243, 258 Kyoto Prefecture, 44, 135 Kyushu, 19, 20, 108, 122, 123, 132, 195 Kyushu District, 195 L Lake Hamanatsu, 247

Subject Index LAN, 245 Land holder, 155 Landing-type tourism, 259 Land-slide zone, 219 LCCs, 244 Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, 22 Lifetime singlehood, 4 Line, 117, 132, 144, 243, 256 Linimo, 97 Live birth, 3–6, 26, 132, 133, 145, 184, 207, 222 Living alone households, 10, 38, 65, 67, 69, 121 Lord Amawari, 119 Lord Gosamaru, 118, 119 Lord of Zakimi, 118 Lord Tsugaru Tamenobu, 166

M Machi-Hito-Shigoto Sousei Hou, 1, 17, 233 Macroscopic studies, 18 Madrid, 155 Maebaru-shi, 123 Maekuma, 96 Makino Tomitaro, 212 Malaysia, 209, 244 Mamurogawa-machi, 175 Manabia Terrace, 153, 185, 186, 188 Manyo-shu, 196 Marginal settlement, 75, 81, 92, 99, 102, 113, 116, 127, 130, 142, 143, 161, 163, 168, 177, 179, 200, 202, 204, 214, 216, 218, 219, 221, 223, 230, 237 Marriage power, 1, 11, 25, 33, 39, 51, 63, 64, 72, 79, 85, 86, 91, 92, 110, 112, 125–127, 132, 140–142, 153, 159– 161, 175–177, 184, 198–200, 207, 212–214, 222, 229, 265 maru, 54 Marumori-cho, 241 Marumori-machi, 242 Marumori Migration and Settlement Support Center, 242 Masuda, 13, 17, 67, 196, 241 Masuda Report, 13 Masuda-shi, 198, 241 Matagi, 170 Matsubara-shi, 135 Matsudaira Domain, 197 Matsudaira Naomasa, 196 Matsue Castle, 196 Matsue Domain, 197

281 Matsue-shi, 197, 198, 200, 202–205, 254 Matsumine, 174 Matsumoto, 199, 267 Meguro-ku, 79 Meiji era, 4, 22, 27, 76, 84, 86, 96, 99, 109, 137, 154, 157, 166, 186, 259 Meiji Restoration, 21, 76, 84, 117, 135, 138, 197, 212 Mercenary spirit, 90 Merging municipalities, 23 Metropolitan Tokyo, 51, 69, 71, 88, 234, 235 Meya, 168, 170, 171 Meya Dam, 168, 170, 171 Michinoku, 154 Mie Prefecture, 267 Mikawa, 75, 76, 88–92, 95, 99, 102, 234, 267 Mikawa Bushi, 90 Mikawa-machi, 175 Mikawa Province, 88–91, 95, 234 Mikawa Region, 75, 76, 90–92, 99, 102 Mikawa-sugi, 99 Mikurajima-mura, 47, 75, 76, 78–83, 85–87, 102, 235 Mikurajima-mura Tourism Association, 86 Minami-Kawachi, 135, 139 Minami-Kawachi District, 135, 139 Minamiminowa-mura, 57 Minami-Tama, 76, 77 Minamiue-baru District, 120 Minato, 84, 156 Minato-ku, 79 Minoh-shi, 135, 141 Minpaku, 246 Misaki-cho, 135 Misato-cho, 198 Misawa-shi, 159, 163 Mishima, 135, 138 Mishima District, 135, 138 Miyagi, 59, 63, 154, 171, 181, 182, 241, 242 Miyagi Prefecture, 154, 181, 182, 241, 242 Miyako, 108 Miyama-shi, 125 Miyauchi, 174 Miyawaka-shi, 125 Miyazaki, 63 Miyoshi-shi, 219 Mizuho-machi, 77 Mizumaki-machi, 123 Mochikibi, 223 Mogami, 153, 154, 171, 172, 174–179, 182, 186, 235, 267 Mogami family, 174, 182 Mogami-gawa, 172

282 Mogami-machi, 175 Mogami Yoshiaki, 174 Mogami Yoshimitsu, 174 Mongol invasions, 123 Monopolar concentration, 67, 69 mori, 156 Moriguchi-shi, 136 Mori Motonari, 196 Mori Nagayoshi, 96 Motoyama-cho, 219, 224 Movement for Civic Rights and Freedom, 212 Munakata-shi, 123 Municipality merging, 23 Municipal power, 1, 2, 17, 22, 24–26, 33, 54, 55, 59, 64, 67, 71, 72, 75, 76, 78, 79, 82–88, 92, 95, 96, 99, 100, 102, 107, 108, 110, 112, 113, 115, 117, 120–123, 126, 127, 131, 133, 134, 139, 141, 142, 144, 146–148, 153, 154, 159–161, 164, 165, 168, 170, 171, 175–177, 179, 181, 182, 184, 186, 193, 194, 199, 200, 202, 204– 208, 213, 214, 217–219, 222, 224, 229, 230, 232, 234, 236, 247, 248, 265–268 Murata Manufacturing Group, 256, 260 Murayama, 153, 154, 171, 172, 174–177, 179, 181, 182, 186, 235, 267 Murayama-shi, 175, 182, 183 Muromachi, 84, 90, 100, 137, 156, 196 Muromachi era, 156, 196 Muromachi period, 90, 100, 137, 196 Muroto-shi, 216 Musashi Province, 75, 76, 78, 83, 102 Mutsu, 153–155, 172, 174, 186 Mutsu Bay, 155 Mutsu shi, 160

N Nagai, 174 Nagai-shi, 175 Nagaizumi-cho, 56, 60 Nagakute, 96, 97 Nagakute-machi, 96 Nagakute-mura, 96 Nagakute-shi, 75, 76, 88, 91–98, 102, 161, 235 Nagano, 22, 229, 267 Nagano Prefecture, 267 Nagasaki, 54, 55, 59, 63, 247, 248 Nagasaki Prefecture, 247, 248

Subject Index Nagaya, 84 Nagoya, 88, 90, 92, 96–98, 101, 114, 195 Nagoya Castle, 90 Nagoya-shi, 88, 91, 97 Naha, 109, 114 Naha Metropolitan Area, 114, 115, 235 Naha-shi, 110, 114 Naimono wa nai, 208 Naka-cho, 237, 238 Naka-cho Drone Promotion Office, 238 Nakadomari-machi, 159 Nakae Chomin, 212 Nakagawa-shi, 123 Nakagusuku Castle Ruins, 107, 117, 118, 121 Nakagusuku-son, 107, 108, 112–117, 120– 122, 235 Nakahama John Manjiro, 212 Naka-Kawachi, 135, 136, 138 Naka-Kawachi District, 136 Nakama-shi, 123 Nakano-ku, 79 Nakanoshima, 205, 206, 209 Nakaoka Shintaro, 212 Nakasendo, 83 Nakatsugaru District, 166 Nakatsugawa-shi, 239 Nakayama-machi, 175 Nanbokucho period, 182 Nanbu, 153–157, 160, 161, 186, 234, 267 Nanbu-machi, 159 Nanbu Region, 156, 157, 159–161, 163, 186 Naniwazu, 137 Nanjo-shi, 114, 115 Nankaido, 20, 67, 186, 193, 194, 210, 229, 235, 267 Nansei Archipelago of Japan, 117 Nanyo-shi, 175 Naoe Kanetsugu, 174 Nara, 9, 19, 53, 57, 61, 135, 137, 156, 172, 173, 205, 206, 220 Nara period, 156, 206, 220 National Important Intangible Folk Cultural Asset, 100, 101 National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSSR), 1, 230 Natural population increase rate, 4, 63, 69, 71, 100, 132, 133, 207, 208 Neo-Confucianism, 137 Nerima-ku, 84 Newcomers, 248, 260 New York City, 155 Neyagawa-shi, 136

Subject Index Nihon-bashi, 83 Nihonbashi Area, 84, 85 Nihonbashi-ku, 84 Nihon Sosei Kaigi, 13 Niigata, 18, 26, 48, 59, 65, 67, 171, 172, 229, 267 Niigata Prefecture, 18, 59, 171, 172, 267 Nijo-machi, 123 Niki, 90 Nikkokaido, 83 Nishihara-cho, 114 Nishikawa-machi, 173, 175 Nishimeya Dam Lake Amphibious Bus Tour, 170, 171 Nishimeya-mura, 153–155, 159–168, 170, 171 Nishi-Mikawa, 88, 91, 92, 95 Nishinoshima, 205, 209 Nishinoshima-cho, 198, 205 Nishi-Tama, 76, 77 Nishitama-gun, 77, 78, 80 Nishiyama Soin, 137 Nogata, 122 Nogata-shi, 125 Noheji-machi, 159 Nose-cho, 135, 139, 141–143, 146 Noto, 267 NPO Tehohe, 100, 101 Nuclear family, 11, 38, 51, 64, 65, 67, 72, 78, 120, 121 Nurturing and rearing children, 25, 72

O Obanazawa-shi, 175, 182 Odajima Nagayoshi, 182 Oda Nobukatsu, 96 Oda Nobunaga, 90 Odanojima-sho, 182 Oe-machi, 175 Ogasawara Islands, 78 Ogata Koan, 137 Ogori-shi, 125, 126 Oguni-machi, 175 Ohda-shi, 198 Ohnan-cho, 198, 199 Oideyo Otoyo Ijyu Keikaku, 194, 222 Oideyo Otoyo Immigration Project, 224 Oirase-cho, 160–165 Oishida-machi, 175, 176 Oita, 122 Oizumi, 174 Okagaki-machi, 123

283 Okawa-shi, 125 Oki, 193–200, 202, 204–206, 225, 235, 267 Oki Islands, 193, 195–197, 205, 206 Okinawa, 9, 10, 12, 19, 21, 41, 44, 45, 51– 56, 59, 60, 63, 67–72, 107–118, 121, 148, 234, 235, 239 Okinawans, 54, 71, 107, 109, 110, 112, 115 Okinawa Prefecture, 51, 54, 70–72, 108– 111, 113–117, 234, 235, 239 Okinoshima-cho, 198, 199, 205 Oki Province, 196–198, 235 Oki region, 193, 194, 198–200, 202, 204, 205 Oki Shoto, 205 Okitama, 153, 154, 172, 174–176, 186, 235, 267 OKJP, 34 Okuizumo-cho, 197, 198, 202 Oku-Mikawa Region, 99, 101 Oku no Hoso Michi, 172 Okura-mura, 175–181 Okutama-machi, 15, 77 OkuTama Region, 75, 102, 234 Oldcomers, 248, 260 Older adult population, 6, 7, 38, 71, 80, 83, 86, 92, 100, 113, 127, 130, 131, 133, 142, 146, 161, 163, 165, 177, 178, 200, 202, 214, 216, 266 Older adults 65+, 6, 7, 99, 121, 142 Older adults 65 and over, 5, 14, 133, 161, 184, 214, 216 Old-olds, 5, 14, 81, 92, 99, 115, 161, 163, 177, 202, 216 Omuta-shi, 125 Onga-cho, 123 Onojo-shi, 123 Ono no Takamura, 206 Oodenma-cho, 84 Oogata-mura, 15 Ooki-machi, 125 Ookusa, 96 Ooma-machi, 159, 161 Oouchi clan, 196 Oowani-machi, 159 Open data, 33–37, 43, 48, 51, 55, 64, 229, 239, 240 Open Knowledge Foundation, 34 Oppu Gold Mine, 166 Oppu Mines, 168 Osaka, 7, 10, 21, 26, 42, 44, 45, 48, 51, 52, 55, 59, 63, 67–72, 107, 108, 114, 135–149, 229, 234, 235, 240, 249, 267 Osaka Bay, 138

284 Osaka City Library, 240 Osaka Gakumon Jyo, 137 Osaka Medical School, 137 Osaka Municipal Library, 240 Osaka National University, 137 Osaka Prefectural Police Academy, 147 Osaka Prefecture, 68, 71, 107, 108, 135–144, 146, 148, 149, 234, 235, 240, 249 Osakasayama-shi, 135 Osaka-shi, 135, 138, 141, 143, 144, 146 Oshu Fujiwara family, 173, 174 Oto-machi, 125, 130 Otoyo-cho, 193, 194, 210, 213–224 Otoyo Delivery Service, 194, 222, 223 Otoyo Peony Society, 194, 222, 223 Ou, 154–156, 172, 182 Oumi Province, 196 Ou Mountain Range, 155, 156 Ou Mountains, 155, 156, 172, 182 Oushukaido, 83 Owari, 75, 76, 88–92, 95–97, 102, 234, 267 Owari Province, 88–90, 95 Owari Region, 75, 76, 91, 92, 96, 102 P Pacific Ocean, 78, 86, 117, 155, 156, 210, 211 Philippines, 101, 244, 251, 260 Pony Express, 220 Population aging, 5, 14, 17, 39, 55, 71, 97, 100, 120, 126, 132, 145, 161, 177, 183, 201, 202, 206, 208, 216, 222, 237, 246, 248, 252, 268 Population decline, 1–4, 10, 11, 13–15, 24, 33–35, 37, 39, 40, 45, 52, 54, 68, 71, 72, 80, 92, 98, 101, 107, 108, 117, 125, 129, 131, 138, 148, 154, 161– 164, 168, 177, 178, 181, 193, 194, 200, 202, 204–207, 216, 217, 221, 222, 224, 230, 232, 234, 235, 238, 241, 242, 257, 265, 267, 268 Population Decline in, 2, 10, 11, 13–15, 24, 33, 37, 45, 52, 71, 72, 107, 125, 131, 181, 193, 205, 206, 217, 221, 222, 224, 230, 232, 234, 235, 257, 268 Population-declining Japanese society, 1, 24, 25, 48, 72 Population declining municipalities, 25, 26, 72 Population pyramid, 1, 6, 33, 37, 48, 52, 55, 216 Population sustaining power, 1, 11, 25, 33, 39, 51, 52, 63, 64, 72, 75, 76, 78, 79,

Subject Index 85, 86, 88, 91, 92, 102, 110, 112, 125– 127, 132, 140–142, 153, 159–161, 175–177, 184, 186, 193, 198–200, 207, 212–214, 222, 229, 265 Projected population increase rate, 16, 44, 46, 51, 55, 59, 63, 69, 79, 86, 91, 92, 96, 110, 112–115, 126, 127, 129, 131, 132, 139, 141, 142, 159–161, 165, 166, 175–177, 183, 198–203, 213, 214, 216, 217 psychological and subjective dimensions, 266

Q QR payment services, 245 Quick Response (QR), 245, 259

R Regional level of analysis, 1, 234 Regional Population Projections for Japan, 13, 36, 37, 43 Regional revitalization, 1, 13, 17, 19, 22, 24, 25, 33, 75, 87, 102, 148, 154, 229, 230, 232, 233, 235–240, 243, 245, 248, 265–268 Regional Revitalization Award, 238–240 Regional Revitalization Law, 1, 17, 229, 230, 232, 233 Regional statistical database, The, 37 Regional variations, 1, 11, 14, 15, 17, 19, 24, 25, 33, 35, 64, 65, 75, 88, 91, 95, 102, 107, 108, 115, 123, 126, 135, 138, 139, 141, 157, 161, 175, 176, 202, 212, 214, 230, 234, 235, 267, 268 Resident aliens, 249 Residents status, 00 Revised Immigration and Refugee Recognition Act of 2019, 253 Rice cultivation culture, 155 Risshaku-ji, 172 Ritsuryo, 19, 76, 83, 95, 144, 154, 206 Rokkasho-mura, 159 Rokunohe-machi, 159 Rome, 155 Russia, 244 Ryukyu, 19, 107–110, 115, 117–121, 148, 234 Ryukyu Kingdom, 107–109, 115, 117–119, 234 Ryukyu Shobun, 109 Ryukyu University, 107, 120, 121

Subject Index S Sado, 18, 267 Saga, 63, 122, 247, 248 Sagae-shi, 172, 175, 177, 182, 183 Sagami Province, 76, 78, 83 Saga Prefecture, 122, 247, 248 Saikaido, 20, 108, 122, 123, 125, 126, 229, 234, 267 Saitama, 7, 41, 51, 52, 55, 59, 63, 67, 69, 72, 75, 76, 233, 235, 249 Saitama Prefecture, 137, 235 Sakai Prefecture, 144 Sakai-shi, 135 Sakamoto Ryoma, 212 Sakata, 174, 181 Sakata-shi, 172, 175, 176 Sakegawa-mura, 175 Saku, 267 Sakurambo Higashine Station, 182 Sakuranbo Tantokuru Center, 185 Sankin-kotai, 182 Sankin koutai, 220 San Ks, 251 Sannin, 196 Sannindo, 20, 65, 67, 186, 193, 196, 198, 229, 235, 267 Sannnohe-machi, 159 Sannyodo, 20, 67, 123, 229, 267 Sanpachi, 157, 159, 160 Sanpachi District, 159, 160 San-pu Sanbyakuni-ken, 21 San-Tama, 76 Sanuki Province, 210 Sanyo, 196 Sapporo, 13, 26, 48 Sasaguri-machi, 123, 131 Sasaki clan, 196 Sato, 20 Satomi clan family, 182 Satoyama, 241 Satsuma, 109, 148 Second baby boomer, 6 Second demographic change, 3 Second Meiji Restoration, 21 Seihoku, 157, 159 Seihoku District, 159 Senboku, 135, 138 Senboku District, 135, 138 Sendai, 26, 48, 174 Sendai propensity, 174 Sengoku era, 88, 157, 182, 211 Sennan, 135, 139–142, 144 Sennan District, 135, 139–142, 144

285 Sennan shi, 135, 144 Sentai Filmworks Inc., 243 Seto-mono, 90 Settsu, 101, 107, 108, 135, 140, 148, 149, 234, 267 Settsu-shi, 135 Sharing economy, 246–248 Sharing villages, 236 Shiba Kaneyori, 174 Shibuya-ku, 79 Shichido, 1, 19, 20, 22, 25, 51, 65, 67, 75, 76, 83, 88–91, 95, 102, 107, 108, 123, 135, 148, 154, 157, 172, 175, 186, 193, 196, 211, 229, 230, 234, 267, 268 Shichinohe-machi, 159 Shidara, 100, 101 Shidara-gami, 101 Shiga, 44, 52, 55, 59, 108, 196, 235 Shiga Prefecture, 196, 235 Shijonawate-shi, 136 Shikoku, 108, 194, 210, 211, 219 Shikoku Conquest, 211 Shikoku Mountain Range, 210 Shima, 208, 267 Shimabara Castle, 248 Shimabara-shi, 247, 248 Shimajya joshiki sazae karee!, 209 Shima-machi, 123 Shimamori Chiburi, 266 Shimamoto-cho, 135 Shima narade wa no mono zukuri to hito zukuri, 208 Shimane, 42, 45, 54, 55, 63–65, 67, 186, 193–205, 207, 212, 229, 230, 235, 241, 253, 254, 265–267 Shimane Prefecture, 193–205, 207, 230, 235, 241, 253, 254, 265, 266 Shimazu family, 109 Shime-machi, 123 Shimen-machi, 131 Shimokita, 157, 159–161 Shimokita District, 159–161 Shimotsuki-kagura, 100 Shingo-mura, 159, 160 Shingu-machi, 123, 132 Shinjo-shi, 175 Shinjyo, 174 Shinjyuku-ku, 79 Shinkawa, 84 shi-no-kou-sho, 79 shinpan, 196, 197 Shinshinotsu-mura, 238

286 Shinshiro-shi, 91 Shintomi, 84 Shinto religion, 196 Shirakami-Sanchi Ecotourism, 168 Shirakami-Sanchi World Heritage, 153, 168, 169, 171 Shirataka-machi, 175 Shitamachi, 79 Shitara Castle, 99 Shitara-cho, 91 Shizuoka, 9, 12, 22, 26, 48, 56, 60, 229, 267 Shizuoka Prefecture, 78, 83, 85, 86, 99, 247, 267 Shoen koryo sei, 196 Sho Hashi, 119 Shohashi, 109 Shonai, 153, 154, 174–176, 186, 235, 267 Shonai-gawa, 88 Shonai-machi, 175, 176 Shonai Plain, 172 Showa era, 27, 96, 98, 187 Shugendo, 172 shugodai, 90, 196 Shugodaimyo, 90 Shugo jito, 196 shuraku, 14, 15, 22, 219, 222 Shuri Castle, 107, 109, 110, 148 Silicon Valley, 246 Sixth sector industrialization, 87 Small area data, 33, 35–37, 40, 45 Small area statistics on demography, 33 Smart City, 238 Smartphone, 240, 245, 246, 256 Social capital, 24, 33, 35, 36, 194, 206, 208, 222 Social Networking Service (SNS), 243, 245, 258 Social population growth rate, 204, 217, 218 Society 1.0, 236 Society 2.0, 236 Society 3.0, 236 Society 4.0, 236 Society 5.0, 229, 236, 265, 268 Soeda-machi, 125 Sotogahama-machi, 157 SpaceMarket, Inc., 248 Spain, 244 Stable pyramid shape, 6 Status system, 155 Stem family, 155, 251 Straw phenomenon, 23 Sue-machi, 123, 131 Sue River, 131

Subject Index Suginami-ku, 79 Suita-shi, 135 Sunpu, 83 Sunshu, 83 Suruga Province, 83 Suwa-kagura, 100 T Tablet devices, 246 Tachiarai-machi, 125 Tadaoka-cho, 135 Tagawa-shi, 125, 126 Taiho Code, 76, 88 Taika Reform, 196 Taiko, 101 Taishi-cho, 135 Taishu, 196 Taiwan, 108, 244 Tajikawa ShimoBansho, 220 Tajiri-cho, 108, 135, 139, 141–148, 235 Takahata-machi, 175 Takaishi-shi, 135 Takaracho, 84 Takatsuki-shi, 135 Taketomi-cho, 108 Takizawa-shi, 59 Takko-machi, 159 Taku-shi, 247, 248 Taku Station, 248 Tama Region, 76–78, 83 Tameike, 131 tanada, 219, 220, 222 Tantokuru, 153, 185, 186 Tashiro-mura, 166 Tatara River, 131 Tehohe, 99–101 Teki-Jyuku, 137 Tendo, 174, 181 Tendo-shi, 172, 175, 177, 182, 183 Tenka no Daidokoro, The, 137 Tenryu River, 100, 247 Terada Torahiko, 212 Teru-chan, 239, 240 Thailand, 209, 244 There Is Nothing That Is Not Here, 193, 208, 210 There Is Nothing That Is Not There, 205, 207 Toei-cho, 75, 76, 88, 91–96, 99–102 Tohoku, 19, 20, 154–156, 171, 172, 181– 183, 186, 199 Tohoku-machi, 159, 160 Tohoku Region, 154–156, 171, 172, 181, 182, 186

Subject Index Toho-mura, 123, 126–128, 130, 133, 134 Toji, 100 Tojyo, 137 Tokaido, 20, 67, 75, 76, 83, 88–91, 95, 101, 102, 229, 234, 267, 268 Tokoname-shi, 76, 91–95 Tokugawa Ieyasu, 76, 84, 88, 90, 96, 196 Tokugawa shogunate, 20, 75, 76, 83, 90, 96, 102, 109, 137, 197, 198, 212 Tokushima, 54, 55, 59, 182, 186, 194, 210, 219, 233, 237 Tokushima Prefecture, 210, 219, 237 Tokyo, 7, 10, 13, 15, 16, 21, 22, 42, 45–47, 51, 52, 54, 55, 59, 62, 63, 67–72, 75, 76, 78–80, 82–86, 88, 96, 97, 102, 108, 110, 114, 115, 135, 171, 209, 219, 229, 233–235, 244, 249, 267 Tokyo bay, 84 Tokyo-fu, 76 Tokyoites, 76 Tokyo Metropolis, 15, 22, 75, 76, 78, 86, 102 Tokyo metropolitan area, 7, 55, 69 Tokyo Olympics, 85, 244 Tokyo-shi, 76 Tomigusuku-shi, 112–116, 121 Tomiya-machi, 61 Tondabayashi-shi, 135 toridashi jyugyou, 257 Tosa, 156, 193, 210–212, 214, 220, 221, 235 Tosando, 20, 65, 67, 148, 153, 154, 172, 175, 186, 229, 234, 267 Tosa Province, 193, 210–212, 214, 220, 221, 225, 226, 235 Toshima-ku, 13, 47 Tosu-shi, 57, 60 Total Fertility Rate (TFR), 3, 4, 26, 38, 59, 63, 82, 93, 116, 117, 133, 145, 146, 181, 184, 207, 222 Total Population, 2, 5–7, 13, 14, 39, 43, 51, 63, 64, 77, 81, 84, 86, 92, 113, 120, 123, 127–130, 142, 161, 163, 166, 177, 184, 200, 202, 207, 209, 214–216, 221 Totoumi, 99 Tottori, 63–65, 67, 194, 212 Tottori Prefecture, 64, 194 Tousei, 157, 159, 161, 163 Tousei District, 157, 159, 161, 163 Towada-shi, 159 Toyohashi, 99 Toyokawa area, 88 Toyomi, 84 Toyonaka-shi, 135, 141

287 Toyono, 135 Toyono-cho, 135, 141 Toyono District, 135, 138, 139, 141 Toyota Motor Corp., 97, 101 Toyotomi Hideyoshi, 88, 90, 108, 137, 148 Toyotomi (then Hashiba) Hideyoshi, 212 Tozama Daimyo, 212, 226 Tozawa-mura, 175 Triple disaster, 154 Tsugaru, 153–157, 159–161, 163, 165, 166, 168, 170, 171, 175, 186, 234, 267 Tsugaru Dam, 153, 168, 170, 171 Tsugaru Region, 156, 157, 159, 161, 163, 165, 170 Tsugaru Shirakami Lake Park, 171 Tsukiji, 84 Tsukishima, 84 Tsukishima Area, 84, 85 Tsukuda, 84 Tsukushi Mountains, 122 Tsuruoka, 174, 181 Tsuruoka-shi, 175 Tsuruta-machi, 159 Tsuwano, 195, 197 Tsuwano-cho, 198, 200, 202–205 Tsuwano Domain, 197 Twitter, 243

U Uchinanchu, 110 Ueda, 149, 267 Uesugi Yozan, 174 UK, 244 umaya, 220 Umi-machi, 123 UNESCO, 109, 118, 148, 169, 206 United Arab Emirates, 209 Unmarried mothers, 3 Unnan-shi, 197 Urasoe-shi, 114 USA, 244 U.S. army, 78 Ushu, 174, 182, 187, 188 Ushu Kaido, 182, 187, 188

V Vietnam, 244

W Wakasa, 267 Wakayama, 18, 54, 55, 59, 135, 194, 233

288 Welcome to Otoyo Immigration, 194 WheelLog!, 240 Wi-Fi, 245 Working population, 5, 7, 14, 38, 71, 82, 95, 97, 130, 131, 133, 142, 146, 165, 166, 184, 202, 207, 216, 218, 266 World Heritage, 107, 109, 118, 121, 148, 153, 168–171 World Population Prospects, 230 World War II (WWII), 2, 78, 84, 109, 138, 260 X XML, 35 Y Yaaninjyu, 54, 71, 110, 112 Yaese-cho, 114, 115 Yaesu, 84 Yahagi-gawa, 88 Yamagata, 22, 45, 54, 55, 59, 65, 67, 148, 153, 154, 171–186, 188, 229, 234, 251, 267 Yamagata Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Statistics Annual Report, 183 Yamagata Airport, 182 Yamagata Prefecture, 148, 153, 171, 172, 174, 175, 177, 180, 182, 183 Yamagata-shi, 175–183 Yamagata Shinkansen Bullet Train, 171 Yamagta-shi, 172 Yamanobe-machi, 175, 177 Yamanote, 79 Yamase, 156 Yamashi-machi, 166 Yamatai-koku, 122 Yamato Imperial Court, 156

Subject Index Yamauchi Kazutoyo, 212 Yame-shi, 125 Yao-shi, 136 Yasugi, 195, 196 Yasugi-shi, 197 Yayoi, 155, 156, 172, 220 Yayoi culture, 155, 156, 172 Yokohama, 76 Yokohama-machi, 159 Yokoyama-cho, 84 Yomitan, 117–119 Yomitan aji, 119 Yomogita-mura, 157 Yonabaru-cho, 114, 115 Yonaguni-machi, 110 Yonezawa, 174, 181 Yonezawa-shi, 175, 176 Yoshika-cho, 198 Yoshimi District, 144 Yoshino River, 219 Yoshioka-machi, 56, 60 Yoshitomi-machi, 123, 130 Yoshitsune, 173, 187 Youne district, 222, 223 Yudate, 100 yui, 54 Yuimaru, 54, 71 Yukihashi-shi, 123 Yuza-machi, 175 Yuzawa-shi, 247

Z Zaichi ryoushu, 196 Zakimi Castle, 119 Zamami-son, 112–114, 116, 117, 121 Zao, 172 Zenpou kouen fun, 172