Mapping Global Dynamics: Geographic Perspectives from Local Pollution to Global Evolution 9783319517025

Table of contents :
Poiesis Foreword by Anne Buttimer
Map Dynamics in Functional Space-Time
Foreword by Waldo Tobler
Big History – Teasing out Significant Patterns
Foreword by David Christian
Co-evolving spheres – A perspective for 21st Century Global Studies
Foreword by Victor Faessel
Spaces’ Evolutions
Foreword by Gerald Hüther
Steering While Living or Mapping of Mapping of Mapping
Foreword by Alexander N. Chumakov
This Book Explores Reason and Rationality
Geography Steers Beyond Geometry
Let’s Replace General with Crucial
Heroes Create Solutions, Even in an Inconsistent World
Is … Is … Is
Acknowledgements
Preface
Structure
Summary
Part I: Objectives Leading to a Vision
Part II: Mapping in Eight Case Studies
Part III: Lessons Learned While Mapping
Part IV: Conclusions for Global Dynamics
Contents
Part I: Objectives Leading to a Vision: an Introduction
1: Objectives Leading to a Vision
1.1 Methods to Map Dynamic Development
1.2 The Research Question
1.3 Definition of Key Terms
1.4 Guidance to the Reader
References
Part II: Mapping in Eight Case Studies
2: Case Study ①: Cadastral Survey of Air Emissions for Salzburg
References
3: Case Study ②: Mineralogical and Soil Properties Influence Cs Uptake
References
4: Case Study ③: Geo-localising of Air Quality Monitoring Sites
References
5: Case Study ④: Geographic Patterns of Historical Global Deforestation
References
6: Case Study ⑤: Global Patterns of Energy Demand and Biomass Fuel Supply
References
7: Case Study ⑥: The Chain of Agricultural Production and Consumption
References
8: Case Study ⑦: Scenarios of Water Demand, Supply and Quality
References
9: Case Study ⑧: Social Mapping in the Game “Surfing Global Change”
References
References
Part III: Lessons Learned While Mapping
10: Lesson One: Synopsis of the Eight Mapping Strategies
10.1 Lists of Systemic Characteristic Properties of the Eight Mapping Cases
10.2 Three Basic Dimensions of Characteristics May Describe All Case Studies
10.3 From Causal Relationships to Spatial Patterns and Back Again
10.4 Overlooking the Innovative Steps in Mapping Realities
10.5 What Global Change Can Be in a Meta-Structural View
References
11: Lesson Two: The Geographic Perspective
11.1 A Suggested Definition of Geography
11.2 Main Constituents of Geography as a Science
11.3 Subdivisions Within the Science of Geography
11.4 Concepts of Spaces in Geography
11.5 What Geographers May Map: Geodetic Spaces and Social Spaces
References
12: Lesson Three: A Brief History of Geographic Thought
12.1 Modes of Perceiving in Classical Geographies
12.2 Reflections on Geography: Themes and Spatial Autocorrelation
12.3 Geography and GIS Develop as a Multiparadigmatic Science
12.4 Paradigms in Recent Economic and Developmental Geography
12.5 The Search for Metrics of Space in Twentieth-Century Geography
References
13: Lesson Four: Own Deliberations on “What Is Space?”
13.1 Reconciliation of Irreconcilable Paradigms Means Progress
13.2 Distance As a Notion Is Based on Interaction and Communication
13.3 Potential and Enacted Communication
13.4 The Essence of Time: An Option to Learn
13.5 Metrics in Virtual Spaces
References
14: Lesson Five: Evolutionary Patterns
14.1 Mapping Dynamic Time-Space Structures of Global Development
14.2 Perceiving Through Several Spaces Simultaneously
14.3 A Practical Method to Map Dynamics in Space-Time
14.4 What May Constitute Evolution of Structures
14.5 Towards Multiperspectivistic Perception: Meta-geography
References
Part IV: Conclusions for Global Dynamics
15: Conclusions for Global Dynamics
15.1 Conclusions from the Objectives
15.2 Conclusions from the Eight Case Studies
15.3 Conclusions from the Lessons Learned
15.4 The Essence of This Book
References
Part V: Annexes with Additional Material from Practice
16: Annex to the Introduction: Which Definitions of Geography Are Provided by Institutions
16.1 Approach to This Piece of Geographic Work
16.2 Definitions of Geography by Geographic Societies
16.3 Methodologies in Geography
16.4 Geography’s Perspectives and Epistemologies According to Literature
16.5 Navigating the Alps
References
17: Annex to Case ①: Inventories for Air Emissions: Methodologies and Trends
17.1 Methodology for an Energy and Emission Balance
17.2 Detailed Description of the Calculation Methodology
17.3 Detailed Description of the Results
17.4 Two Methods for Emission Projection
17.5 Possible Application of These Methods in Other Cities
References
18: Annex to Case ②: Geo-Referencing Radioactive Deposition and Transfer
18.1 Relevance of Environmental Radioprotection
18.2 A Study on Geo-Referencing Radioactivity in the Tauern Region of the Alps
18.3 Caesium Contamination of the Underwater Sediments
18.4 Caesium Contamination of the Soil Samples
18.5 Caesium Contamination of the Plants
18.6 Dependence of the Transfer Factors for Caesium
18.7 Control Experiments Regarding Particle Size Distribution
18.8 Suitability for a Geographic Information System GIS
18.9 Detection of Main Geofunctional Dependencies in the Soil-Plant System
18.10 Overview of Spatial Properties
References
19: Annex to Case ③: Siting of Air Quality Monitoring Stations
19.1 Structure of the Report on the AQMS in the Slovak Republic
19.2 Air Quality Monitoring Station in Hnúšťa
19.3 Air Quality Monitoring Station in Jelšava
19.4 A Geo-referenceable Example: Steel Works in Košice
19.5 Conclusions and Recommendations for AQMS Siting
References
20: Annex to Case ④: Quantifying, Visualising and Modelling Global Deforestation
20.1 The Global Carbon Cycle
20.2 Disturbance of the Global Carbon Cycle by Deforestation
20.3 Net Carbon Flow to the Atmosphere
20.4 Mapping Global Biomass Density
20.5 Detailed Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the Global Carbon Cycle
References
21: Annex to Case ⑤: Modelling Future Alterations of Global Carbon Flows
21.1 Mathematical Approaches to Global Modelling
21.2 The Model Architecture of a Global Biomass Energy Model
21.3 Functional Patterns of Carbon Flows
21.4 Deviating Global Carbon Flows for Global Energy Needs
21.5 Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Carbon Flows
References
22: Annex to Case ⑥: A Scenario Generator for Global Land-Use Change Scenarios
22.1 Summary of This Chapter
22.2 Aim of the Chapter
22.3 The Method: A Socio-economic Database with an Analytical Tool
22.4 The Conceptual Framework for Productivity in Agriculture
22.5 The Supply Side of Global Agricultural Productivity
22.6 The Demand Side of Global Food Production
22.7 The Economic Factor Input to Agricultural Production
22.8 Structure of Scenarios for the Demand Side: A Chain Formula
22.9 Quantitative Development of the Structural Variables
22.10 Trends for the Structural Variables
22.11 Projection of Trends Until 2050: A Dynamics-As-Usual Scenario
22.12 Modified Scenarios Until 2050
22.13 Generalising Description of the Modelling Strategy
22.14 Conclusions for This Chapter
References
23: Annex to Case ⑦: A Geo-referenceable Scenario Writing Technique
23.1 Summary of This Chapter
23.2 Reason and Motivation for a Baseline Scenario
23.3 Earlier Examples for Scenario Writing Methodologies
23.4 An Original Approach to Long-Term Scenarios Based on Trend Analyses
23.5 Structures for Methodologies Leading to a WFD Baseline Scenario (BLS)
23.6 The DPSIR Conceptual Framework
23.7 Architecture of a Baseline Scenario BLS
23.8 Underlying Conceptual Model for the Dynamic Behaviour of the BLS
23.9 Strategy for Filling Data into the System Architecture
23.10 Formal Description of the BLS Method
23.11 More Detailed Project Documentation
23.12 The Strategic Context for This Entire Piece of Work
23.13 Advantages of This Method for a BLS
References
24: Annex to Case ⑧: Mapping Social Procedures
24.1 Statistics of Communication
24.2 Indivisible Elements of Consideration: Perspectives
24.3 Which Basic Dimensions Exist in Social Processes?
24.4 Implications for Interdisciplinary Learning
24.5 Global Studies
References
25: Annex to Lessons Learned: Spotlights on the History and Future of Geography
25.1 A Sequence of Paradigms in Geography
25.2 Paradigmatic Shifts in Economic and Developmental Theories
25.3 Understanding of Space-Time Patterns in Human Geography
25.4 Abstract Concepts of Space and Time in Geography and in Physics
25.5 Revisiting the Key Concepts of This Book
25.5.1 Self-Referential Systems
25.5.2 Space Means Separation of Possibilities for Communication
25.5.3 A Methodology to Map Spatio-temporal Dynamics
25.5.4 Generalising the Task of Global Development
25.5.5 Granularity in Reality: Evolutionary Creation of Structures
25.5.6 Spatial Metrics Based on Potential or Enacted Communication
25.5.7 Modes of Communication, Reflectivity and Evolution
References
Appendix: Selection of Geographic Literature
A Selection of “Most Suitable” Geographic Literature in the Understanding of the Author
Literature
Index

Citation preview

Gilbert Ahamer

Mapping Global Dynamics Geographic Perspectives from Local Pollution to Global Evolution

Mapping Global Dynamics

Gilbert Ahamer

Mapping Global Dynamics Geographic Perspectives from Local Pollution to Global Evolution

Gilbert Ahamer Institute for Geographic Information Science Austrian Academy of Sciences Salzburg, Austria

ISBN 978-3-319-51702-5    ISBN 978-3-319-51704-9 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51704-9 © Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Printed on acid-free paper This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer International Publishing AG part of Springer Nature. The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

To see space, start with the void.

Fig. 0.0  Gilbert Islands and Ellice Islands in the Pacific, at the centre of this frontispiece. This historic map (Krusenstein, 1826) shows

“wonderland” as a “space of miracles” for many Europeans: the Pacific. I dedicate this book to Alice, my space of miracles

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Mapping Global Dynamics



Poiesis Foreword by Anne Buttimer Poiesis (lit. invitation to discovery) lies at the heart of this volume. “Autopoietic ensembles” occupy the “methodological landscape” presented here. Maps emerge in a far more imaginative form than those of conventional cartography; beyond patterns in space one finds processes of transition, with telling symbols of time, space and functional relationships. But the map retains what remains perhaps its most basic power, i.e. that of graphic language – one that transcends the impasses of vernacular tongue and disciplinary jargon. The map, as deployed here, serves as catalyst for intercultural and interdisciplinary dialogue on global issues. The author, Gilbert Ahamer, a leading expert in global environmental science and a passionate advocate of ecological concern, offers a challenge to readers and educational institutions in countries all around the world. In eight carefully chosen case studies, the expanded notion of “mapping” is applied at various scales – local, regional and global – to issues of environmental concern. In some cases, in-depth analyses framed within a particular country, e.g. in the Slovak Republic for air quality measurement and in Slovenia for water quality assessment, offer guidelines for other countries in their potential responses to EU Framework Directives. On energy supply and demand, the author has collaborated with the International Institute for Applied System Analysis on global emission patterns. His own Combined Energy and Biosphere Model demonstrates the strengths and limitations of biomass combustion and the constraints involved in transport. Global agriculture also gets attention: scenarios on food potential, with specific reference to cereal production, outline “saturation states” of supply and demand reached at different times and mapped as “functional state space”. Deforestation and climate change is another major issue addressed here: by plotting various timelines of developments in various regions of the world, it is possible to discern development phases in the spatio-temporal dynamics of global deforestation. A highly imaginative case study addresses issues of environmental education. “Social mapping” is deployed to examine the effectiveness of processes representing four steps of learning in four “voices”: soprano (information), alto (team), tenor (dialogue) and bass (integration). Quite an orchestral poiesis! Geographers will welcome this volume. With its energetic use of data and dynamic perspectives on mapping, it helps to restore the discipline’s fundamental concern about culturally diverse modes of interaction between humanity and the bio-physical environment. While elaborately illustrating the importance of information technology, it moves geographical imagination beyond the unfortunately blinkered twentieth-century logical positivist focus on “spatial analysis” – which led to a separation of physical and human branches of the field – and thus a loss of historical and environmental concern. Mapping Global Dynamics reminds geographers of their potentially vital role in Century 21: a “Latin American” voice evoking a conscientização (critical consciousness) in the scholarly world on issues of global concern. As the author suggests, this could be the evocative “Latin American” voice restored to life in the scientific world. Prof. Dr. Anne Buttimer Professor Emeritus of Geography, University College Dublin President of the International Geographical Union, 2000–2004 Vice President of Academia Europaea and Class Chair for Social and Related Sciences since 2012 Lifetime Achievement Honours, American Association of Geographers, 2014 Vautrin Lud Prize in 2014, informally called the “Nobel Prize for Geography” ix

Map Dynamics in Functional Space-Time Foreword by Waldo Tobler

Wikipedia defines a map as a symbolic depiction emphasising relationships between elements of some space, such as objects, regions, or themes. Many maps are static, fixed to paper or some other durable medium, while others are dynamic or interactive. Although most commonly used to depict geography, maps may represent any space, as in brain mapping, DNA mapping, or computer network topology mapping. The space being mapped may be two dimensional, such as the surface of the earth, three dimensional, such as the interior of the earth, or even more abstract spaces of any dimension, such as arise in modelling phenomena having many independent variables.

Given these possible dimensions of mapping, the book author, Gilbert Ahamer, conceives mappings of space and time, or space-time, as the projecting of light onto a geographic understanding of contemporary problems. He considers maps as dynamic enlightenments and then moves on to extend this to functional spaces. His emphasis is on change to include history and evolution. This is formulated as coordinate transformations, but not as frame-free tensor versions. The entire work leads to the concept of transitions which in turn leads to what are called meta-structures and trends. This is an ambitious story aimed at providing an overall frame for understanding and comprehending the contemporary world, a profound and wonderful example exploring world history and geography that broadens the scope from mappings to art.

Prof. Dr. Waldo Tobler Professor Emeritus at the Geography Department, University of California, Santa Barbara Founder of Analytical Geography Author of the “First Law of Geography” Seminal Contributions to Map Projections and to the Development of Geographic Information Science

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Big History – Teasing out Significant Patterns Foreword by David Christian

Seeing what we need to see in the Anthropocene: As a historian, working at the very large scales of “Big History”, it is a pleasure to write a foreword to Gilbert Ahamer’s rich study, Mapping Global Dynamics. His book is very timely. We live in an era so globally inter-connected that the big challenges we face are fantastically complex. In the last century, as we entered the Anthropocene epoch, we humans became, whether we realize it or not, managers of an entire planet. The problems posed by this challenge are entirely new and they represent entirely new types and levels of complexity. Indeed, we live at a pivotal moment in the history of planet earth because never before have living organisms had to make decisions that will affect the entire biosphere for hundreds of thousands, perhaps for millions of years. Clearly, we need guidance. And this book takes up the challenge of trying to map global dynamics in ways that can help us see more easily how our world is changing, so we can steer change in ways that will benefit future generations. Its central question is: How can you map global complexity in ways that will provide the insights and the guidance we will need in the critical middle decades of this century? Though the author’s background is in physics, environmental protection and economics, in this book he writes as a geographer. Indeed, he sees geography itself as a way of studying extreme complexity, both in space and time, and in the more abstract networks of relations between institutions and people. How can we map global changes so as to gain some control over the evolution of planet earth? How can we see and visualize the crucial changes so that we can respond in a timely way to the huge, potentially dangerous, and massively complex challenges they pose? “What”, the author asks “are suitable ‘mapping strategies’ when detecting patterns of global dynamics in time-space?” At the heart of this book are eight different projects, that explore ways of mapping increasingly complex problems. His first study shows in rich detail ways of mapping changes in air quality and emissions in his own region of Salzburg country. His second project maps in intricate detail how radioactivity from the Chernobyl accident entered plants and the food chain in the Austrian Alps. Such maps have immediate practical value for the institutions charged with managing air quality or identifying the pathways by which dangerous pollutants can enter the food chain. A third case study, based on work done in Slovakia, takes up the slightly different problem of deciding the most efficient way of locating air quality monitoring stations; while a fourth study maps changing demand for and supply of water in Slovenia. A further group of case studies tackles mapping challenges at larger scales. This group includes global studies of deforestation (the second most important driver of climate change after fossil fuel emissions) over the last century; the potential for production and use of biomass fuels in different regions; and possible pathways for the evolution of the global agricultural system in the near future. Finally, Ahamer shows how sophisticated mapping can help us understand the learning processes involved, as groups of people work towards consensus solutions to complex interdisciplinary problems. xiii

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Big History – Teasing out Significant Patterns

Each of the case studies contributes something new to the overall project of finding better ways of mapping complex systems linking the biosphere, physical geography and human activities. And as a historian I am pleased to see that one overall conclusion is that mapping can tease out significant patterns much better if it is historical as well as spatial, in other words, if it tracks the evolution of entire complex systems rather than capturing them, as in traditional mapping, at a particular point in time. The remaining chapters of Ahamer’s book explore what these projects can tell us more generally about the possibilities of sophisticated mapping of complex systems. In a final Chapter 15 describing VIII “meta-trends”, the author suggests that more sophisticated methods of mapping can help us see the crucial trends more clearly, and improve our chances of steering large, evolving patterns of change towards stable and sustainable outcomes. As the essence of this book (Section 15.4) concludes: “The ultimate practical question is: how controllable and steerable is the future by humankind? How can humans influence an autopoietic, autotelic historic process?” Non-experts like myself will find some of the more technical sections difficult. But researchers engaged in similar mapping projects will have a huge amount to learn from the rigour, detail and precision with which Ahamer tackles the task of mapping complex changes. And even non-experts will have a huge amount to learn from a book whose arguments are laid out with great clarity. The author is to be congratulated on producing a book that can help us get a grip on the extraordinarily complex, even “wicked” problems that the global community will be facing over the next few decades.

Prof. Dr. David Christian Founding Director and Distinguished Professor, Big History Institute, Macquarie University, Sydney President of the International Big History Association World History Association Book Prize for Maps of Time Founder of Big History Project initiative jointly with philanthropist Bill Gates

Co-evolving spheres – A perspective for 21st Century Global Studies Foreword by Victor Faessel

Based on several case studies spanning the natural sciences to social sciences, this book proposes a dialogic method of consensus building on global issues in evolutionary perspective. The essential feature of this rich, uniquely conceptualized work is that the three meta-theoretical and philosophical elements at its core–mapping methods, spatial theory, and evolutionary theory–fuse and intertwine with each other throughout the study. It is suggested here that metrics as such are ‘co-evolutive’–that is, they appear and disappear during the genesis and evolution of structures. The ultimate practical question addressed by this study is: How controllable and steerable is the future? How can humans influence an autopoietic, autotelic historical process? In western civilization, even at the present conjuncture in the shadow of the Anthropocene, optimism over the ability of humankind to steer complex global processes remains widespread. This text suggests a crucial adjustment of perspective: namely, the necessity to act, but to act in a manner that is coherent with ongoing autotelic processes and developments, mindful of the structuro-genesis of biosphere, humanosphere, noosphere, and institutional sphere. The uniquely interdisciplinary “Global Studies” perspective of this work, presented as a curriculum under the worldwide umbrella of the Global Studies Consortium, synthesizes perspectives from diverse traditional disciplines: geography, history, economics, sociology, technology, environment, international law and religious studies. Among such globally oriented spheres of scholarship and activism, the present volume should be well received. Prof. Dr. Victor Faessel Founding Secretary, Global Studies Consortium Founding Program Director of the Orfalea Center for Global & International Studies at the University of California, Santa Barbara Associate Director of the Mellichamp Initiative on 21st Century Global Dynamics at UCSB Managing editor of the Encyclopedia of Global Studies, the online journal global-e and the Oxford Handbook of Global Studies

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Spaces’ Evolutions Foreword by Gerald Hüther

In 1944, the Austrian physicist and co-founder of quantum mechanics Erwin Schrödinger expressed a physicist’s perspective on life in his conceptual book What Is Life? His view of cells as aperiodic crystals was held to have been inspiring subsequently for Watson and Crick’s actual discovery of the double helix of the DNA. Through the replication process, life evades the drop into the – dead – state of thermodynamic equilibrium. Order arises from order and is maintained. In his book, Schrödinger talks about “physical laws of a completely new type”. What is the general nature of the issue? Some structures are capable of self-replication – one of the most important characteristics of living systems. Thus, evolution necessitates both structures and processes (and the same is the double nature by which to understand the nature of information). Beings created by means of self-replication and cell division are even capable of writing touching poems, of starting wars and of searching for the meaning of life. Still, there seems to be an enormous hiatus between the coincidental external effects on a system and its potential for development. In 2014, 50 years later, another Austrian physicist, Gilbert Ahamer, taking the viewpoint of a geographer completed his book Mapping Global Dynamics (MGD) on some of the profound questions in geography: (1) “what is space?” and (2) “how are (spatial) structures created?”

(1) After having started out with experimental science, MGD examines the effects of conceptualising and building models on their “generation of meaning” as such. Inspired by the procedure of stepwise refinement of quantitative environmental, energy-related and educational models along the eight case studies, this book suggests that the comprehension of space and time itself be understood as the result of an iterative, recursive, self-defining, autopoietic and even selfguiding process that includes the observer – similar to the evolutionary transition from program-controlled to programmable in brains. To denote this audacious view typographically, the author suggests writing a circular arrow as index (x↺, t↺). In neurobiology, when understanding the biochemical functioning of the brain, “experience-­dependent plasticity of neuronal networks” means the physical connections or their loosening between nerves in our brain occurring as a function of how we use them. Gilbert Ahamer suggests applying this understanding to space and time as such and perceives them as a concept that has been engraved in the collective mind of living beings for long aeons – quite successfully (as we hold space and time to be real) and analogous to “neuronal pathways” in collective consciousness. In the same way as there are no superordinate “traffic planners” (on an individual, neurophysical level) for our brains during our human evolution that could decide on the aptitude of our future neuronal pathways, he suggests seeing that there is also no predeterminable planner on the collective level deciding on the suitability of world views, perspectives and life concepts – but instead, there is free choice in dignity for responsible individuals. As a conclusive next step, this book in the final Sect. 14.4 on evolutionary patterns suggests perceiving consciousness as the result of an autopoietic, self-guided process (p↺), denoted by xvii

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p for “perspective on the world”. This book’s suggestion is that the “entirety of all conscious views can be able of producing the entirety of perceived reality” (meta-geography, Sect. 14.5). This notion of meta-geography (when “all” standpoints are understood and taken at the same time) contributes to the imminent present-day need for bridging cultural gaps and at the same time to conceptual innovation. After having read through MGD, a tempting encouragement would be that there is transcendence – as a counterpart to immanence. Such might be a final stage of transpersonal cosmic consciousness. As a conceptual innovation, Chap. 13 proposes a novel definition of space based on Ludwig Boltzmann’s (1844–1906) epochal definition of entropy (S = k . ln W) and Claude Shannon’s (1916–2001) subsequent analogous definition for entropy in the information sciences. According to Shannon’s notion of information, the information content is equivalent to the logarithm of the possible states. However, in MGD, the substrate for statistical deliberations based on the concept of state space is not atoms as in physics, but interaction, hence acts of communication. This leads to a new metric of space and the statement that “space is a function of communication processes” – a concept well-linked with modern human geography. In the same vein, MGD offers a direct conceptual link to “learning”: time means learning efficiency. Actually, the evolution of life means a progressive enlargement of the learning ability of living systems.

(2) For the e volution of structures in general, two goals seem central to me: (a) the regularities that comprise the formation of structure in the universe up to the creation of life and consciousness; they can be referred to as structural laws and are actually mapped in the eight case studies of this book by using a globe symbol (geodetic space). Moreover, (b) the second aspect is the categorically new processes applicable by the foundation of these structural laws; these are mapped in this book by using an inverted globe symbol (functional space). Dealing with these two different and seemingly incompatible interpretations of the notion of “reality” or rather “information” is (often up to present) based on the not-­yet-­performed synthesis of these two perspectives: on one hand the perspective (a) that attributes information to the objective system and on the other hand the perspective (b) that attributes information to the observer. This double aspect of information, i.e. on one hand, the objectifying perspective (general structure) and, on the other, the subjectifying perspective (individual process) can be consistently conceived as one and the same because they form a unity, the unity of the universally interpreted “self”. On this track, MGD actually includes perspectives as an additional entity opening up into interparadigmatic and intercultural understanding  – and includes practical case studies of intercultural learning, global developmental studies and sociopolitical transformation during EU accession, both on an individual and national level. Therein, dialogue, social cohesion, team building and mutual understanding are at the same time both a fabric of conditions and the result of a learning process. MGD’s author sees (global) development as “growing together in responsibility”. For the target of such learning, our brain serves as a social organ. The STAB sequence proposed in Chap. 9 to support any learning does value cooperative social procedures. It means that, while a new (organisational) shape develops, through co-evolution new meaning also arises – an immanent principle of the development of living systems. This evolutionary procedure actually “equals” learning.

Spaces’ Evolutions

Spaces’ Evolutions

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Such a transition from the creation of structure in physical systems to the formation of self-­ replicating structures (as occurred in our universe’s evolution) is empirically corroborated by the dynamics of (desirable individual) learning procedures: learners are encouraged to joyfully and dynamically create structures among them, inspired by learners’ inner images. On this path, attention and love fuel life, and enthusiasm and significance fertilise the brain. This book is written for readers who feel inclined to say: Sometimes I can actually feel how I love to live, and then I begin to wonder. Scientists of the spirit and citizens of the heart will be attracted to this volume. Whoever fights for something and not against something is invited to read it. We hope that MGD may contribute to an “instruction manual for our evolution” for developing a world in which (still unfolding) humanity may change living conditions in a way that these conditions allow the formation of ever more human brains. We hope that it may support humankind in responsibly mastering their transition from program-controlled beings to self-programming beings.

Prof. Dr. Gerald Hüther One of the Most Renowned Brain Researchers in Germany Author of Number 1 Amazon Bestsellers Neurobiologist, Psychiatrist and Pedagogue at Several International Universities Founding Director at the Academy for Unfolding Potentials

Steering While Living or Mapping of Mapping of Mapping Foreword by Alexander N. Chumakov

The words in the title of this essay paraphrase the famous “Rose is a rose is a rose …” by the Paris-based poet Gertrude Stein, which originally appeared in her 1922 book Geography and Plays – and this iteration has a special significance in our story to be told. Her series of words is a perfect metaphor of that specific vertigo-like feeling accompanying all types of activity in which reason operates to decide upon whether reason itself is reasonable or not  – where an action (reasoning, in this case) has to double itself up all the time, simply in order to justify its own meaning.

This Book Explores Reason and Rationality Such an audacity of agenda I have encountered before in the texts of Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel and Gilles Deleuze. As a reader, I was pleased by the approach of asking the fundamental question in geographical science: what does it mean to map in general? This fundamental geographic question presupposes two others, dealing with the very essence of rationality as I see it: what do we map and what does the separation between geography and other sciences really mean? What place does this book occupy in the history of ideas? This is a very special book for very special readers: it is devoted to transformation processes in a world inhabited by professional “geographers”. But, after taking a closer look, you come to understand that it is not only about geography but also – or even especially – about tendencies in Global Studies, because the history of geography is seen here as almost identical to the broader intellectual history of the Western world. This evolving history of conceptual thinking is described as proceeding from “space” to “time” as the prime notion, in other words from a temporal presentation of space to a spatial presentation of time and – as I formulate myself – from “ideas about something” to “something about ideas”, from explanation to invention and from reconciliation to solution. As one of the grand conceptual lines of this book, firstly “thing (or element)” replaces the real as an object of consideration, then “function (or interaction of elements)” replaces “thing”, and, finally, “perspective (i.e. viewing the interaction of elements)” replaces “function” (see Table 1.1). Mapping Global Dynamics’ spatial analysis seems to touch the “topological” movement in political science, philosophy and even topological theology. I would also like to emphasise the role geography has in this approach as compared to the role of geometry in the work of Edmund Husserl and that of mathematics in the work of Alain Badiou.

Geography Steers Beyond Geometry Here, in the generality of concrete disciplines (geography, geometry, mathematics) – like in the Cartesian pineal gland (René Descartes believed this to be the seat of the soul) – we can see the very beginning of knowledge as the practice of separating laws from the question to which xxi

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degree accordance exists with these laws at all. Hegel in his Jena period defined this as smartness, and the author of this book calls it steering while living (  – using a ship’s steering wheel). At the beginning, we always find some already: reason finds itself included in an already happening process or, to be more precise, as an already happening process. Dr. Ahamer follows the same line of reasoning in geography as Edmund Husserl did in geometry. Science will regain its dignity, says the latter, only when providing its existential purpose, i.e. providing meaning for my own “here-and-now” (Table 10.14 on p. 141). For Husserl, all sciences – which ultimately count and measure – stem in one way or another from geometry. But geometry at its root is in no way abstract; on the contrary, its core and primary intention is the desperate effort of a naked body to survive, i.e. to have spatial continuation in time. Thus the subject of geometry could be found around any living body, trying to organise itself. However it is not a static web of things, but a flow in time. Thus “geo” becomes here the name of a habitat in a broader sense. So geometry is not about the “literal”, geographical “geo”, but about a literal, existential “geo”. Obtaining this “memory” does not destroy geometry, but gives it – and other sciences – all its “powers” back, connecting the dimensions of the general and specific, opening abstraction as the primordial condition of the surprised self, already separated, but inside, and as the concrete need to effectively interact with spatial entities in time. The same goes for geography, as you can conclude from the book you have in your hands. Geography as a specific science stands close to knowledge as such, because it makes maps. And maps of course are connected with the future – before going somewhere, you’d better take a look at the map and then decide. In a broader sense, every name, or word, is a map, because it places an entity into a web of other entities. Mapping of mapping opens mapping as the mapping of different spaces  – in this book, geographical spaces, functional spaces and finally even spaces of perspectives (Tables 15.5 and 15.6 on p. 222). More elaborate and more appropriate mapping strategies do not merely map a situation in static space, but interdependencies in time, and this leads to the disappearance of elements on these maps, because what appears to be an element turns into a function in time. But this is not the end. Mapping of mapping (as shown in Figs. 10.2 to 10.12 on p. 127–138) – by splitting the object away from mapping – leads to the complete disappearance of the preexisting “geo”, because any “geo” is the result of “geography” as in Benno Werlen’s “geography without space”. So advanced geography – as any good, i.e. over-responsible – theory becomes “antitheory” (as Alain Badiou calls it), stating that in the end, if theory begins with attention to the unknown, there is no such thing as “theory”. And if there is no theory, but if theory is replaced by transitions from one level of mapping strategy to another and more useful level of mapping strategy, this tells us nothing except to stay attentive and open up space for inventive life. This makes us able to steer while living, as the author of this book defines it, or in other words, to outgrow our own weaknesses, as Raymond Kurzweil formulates it.

Let’s Replace General with Crucial The following section deals with two features of Gilbert Ahamer’s approach, which I found to be its greatest advantages: first (let’s call it double fidelity) is its manner of discussing the fidelity of a special epistemological strategy to its own essence, namely, its fidelity to its essence as universal (“geography is special because it is universal”); second (let’s call it gambling with the ocean, as the captain suggests in Stéphane Mallarmé’s symbolic poem of 1897 “Un Coup de Dés Jamais N’Abolira Le Hasard” [A Throw of the Dice Will Never Abolish Chance]) is the assertion of the increasing ingenuity of science that simultaneously increases the realisation of its object’s inconsistency (“there is no “geo”, because every “geo” is a product of geography”).

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The approach to geography deployed in this book sets the specialised mind in an existential direction: Usually, when you approach “specialised research institutions” (the discipline of which is irrelevant), you are likely to encounter coats of dust and dead-eyed custodians, so that the entire institution seems to exhibit numerous signs of secondary importance, at least in the eyes of “natives”. “Okay”, you say to yourself then, “I will also think about it the same way they do”. But such an approach is no irrevocable law and it does not always work out as intended. Sometimes you can meet somebody with a burning insight – such as the author of this book – for whom special doesn’t mean secondary. Instead, you may understand special interest in its quintessential essence to be the very moment when you find how to put it before everything else and make everything preceding and succeeding special occurrence descend from such an object of conscious reasoning. As Viktor Frankl once said, “consciousness is my ability to be the governing principal concept of my own background”. For the author, geography – while still being a special science – also has to be understood as the principal science from which every other science could be considered to descend, because every science is reliant on mapping. Mapping arises not just from explanation, but most of all from invention, to which no explanation can be a substitute. For the Hungarian philosopher György Lukács, consciousness is not something one can acquire once and forever, but becoming conscious requires a situation. Let’s say that for Gilbert Ahamer, being a geographer is not a profession or a perspective acquired once and forever, but “becoming a geographer emerges in a situation”. In such an understanding, consciousness is inseparable from its connection to a solution. The fundamental situation defining how to become a “geographer” is the irreducible face-­ to-­face encounter with other people as described by Emmanuel Lévinas or the civil society of Immanuel Kant and Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel. (On his path to the pyramid, the author encountered so many faces.) On any path, every moment appears as an open problem and not as already cognised (spatial) uniformity as in the “classical” model. A problem, or deadlock, is something for which I have no recipe, because no doctor has ever encountered this before. This present-day understanding of geography – to put it into simple words – has much more suspense and excitement in it than had the understandings of the past. No unity can be found in this new geography of process or in geography of difference; not even unity of space. The author describes space in a Cantorian way, as multiple without one: “space”, he says, “is a product of manifoldness”, or, in Sect. 13.4, “space is a function of communication”.

Heroes Create Solutions, Even in an Inconsistent World While the hero of classical thought is a sage, who could be seen as autochthonous to his particular branch of (spatial) reality which he knows better than anybody else – like “the back of his hand” – the hero of the new epistemology is the action hero (like in action movies), because reality itself is found here to be dynamic: action, process, life (being often different from ideal) and so on (as is the case for Henri Bergson, Alfred North Whitehead, Gilles Deleuze and others; for the latter the concept of multiplicity replaces that of substance and event replaces essence – his magnum opus is entitled Difference and Repetition). Here we see the key difference between places that classical and present-day knowledge occupy in the life of ordinary people: the first is for some (because only a few from the total population have any interest in talking with sages), and the second is for everybody (because everybody likes going to the cinema). The wisdom of the sage is that which is described by the phenomenology of spirit; it deals with sedation or, as Hegel calls it, final reconciliation. The latter is connected of course with the desperate condition in which all time is gone, and you need to know how to go on living with a life that has not happened. Let us confirm to ourselves, then: philosophy begins not with an attempt to reach reconciliation, but with the ability to make concepts, and philosophy means

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not to cover one’s eyes in a difficult situation that calls for a solution. Then you – instead of having this or that particular map – have to understand what it means to map in general, even in the sense of “cosmic evolution”. Let’s say that an intellectual is a worker set to a machine called reason! How can I say “oh, no, not me” to the idea of being the operator of such a difficult and dangerous thing? If I work with reason, it means I am responsible for everything that happens to it; I cannot just say that something isn’t in my power! What a gallant position! Suitable for every specialist and for geographers also! This is precisely what the captain from the Mallarméan poem “A Throw of the Dice...” does. He opens up space for inventive (or interventive) life. A difficult situation (“me on the edge of inconsistency”) becomes here the invariant model for thinking about any situation in general. When you need to map the best path into the future, you need to change the usual approach into an inventive approach. While we usually collect general information about an accepted manner of counting and measuring in classical science, in the case of an inventive approach, you – turning from sage to gambler – are looking for a new, more effective paradigm while working with additional information which nobody processes and creates except you and which appears to become crucial in the calculation of possible outcomes. Contrary to a sage, a hero actually creates a future.

Is … Is … Is Gertrude Stein’s initially mentioned doubling, however, does not constitute something unfamiliar to “everyday” thinking. In order to avoid this doubling  – solely to have something solid – usually we must simply stop defining at some point (but instead continue acting). See, for example, Alain Badiou about the minimal element required for the quality of existence to exist, that which cannot be split without the disappearance of the analysed whole, having its name derived from the quality of being unable to be present after splitting. But, acting with respect to nature – or to say ethically or ecologically, i.e. taking care of minimal existences understood in a Spinozian way as conatus, the “desire” of every being to continue with respect to its own essence – how should we act if the minimal element which cannot be split without the system’s disappearance is splitting itself (remember the Badiouian formula “idea means that one is going to be divided into two” – through reflection), as in the case of pure theory deciding upon its own decision as mentioned above? Actually, this book sees an autopoietic iteration of conscious reflection and perspective-­ taking as the constituent for reality itself (p↺ and meta-geography in Sect. 14.5). How shall we then proceed with such a controversial entity as some theory, or theory of something, which is, on the one hand, theory (in the sense of contemplation), i.e. has no thing as its limit and is thus different from the difference between things, and is, on the other hand, something, different from other things, especially when it is a theory of some theory, i.e. methodological work in some particular field of theory, different from other fields of theory, as in the one presented in the book the reader now has before his eyes? Here, does the subject of research tend to disappear all the time, as mirage? First of all, it must be said that from a reader’s point of view this does not mean imperfection; it just adds to the story’s suspense, keeping us awake all the time as a truly Hitchcockian object, and it just makes you invest your energy in it. In this endeavour of Mapping Global Dynamics, the subject of research twinkles, disappears, comes back into existence with ever-new intensity and disappears again. It happens not only because what we have is the theory of a theory of something but also thanks to the essential features of a particular theory (of something), the attracted (theoretical) attention of the author and the choice of geography – representing the most difficult group of specific theories for analysis and the one most unprotected from “theoretical temptation”, to which belong –

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along with geography – geometry and mathematics. All three, due to their generality, have as a minimal element almost everything, so you can hardly find what not to split. That which could not be split rather acquires a quality of the promised – but not yet present – sublime object, of which the main property is its inaccessibleness, so its place remains always empty, i.e. vacant for substitutes. But does this absence of a definite minimal element mean losing it? Absolutely not! In everyday usage, geography of course does not work like this. However, everyday geography does not keep us awake inside its own action and does not make us remember our life as a “geographical exercise”. Gertrude Stein once remarked about her “Rose is…” poem: “Now listen! I’m no fool. I know that in daily life we don’t go around saying ‘is a ... is a ... is a ...’. Yes, I’m no fool; but I think that in that line the rose is red for the first time in English poetry for a hundred years”. Rephrasing her words, let’s say that it is this book that makes the author of this preface understand for the first time in his life how “red” present-day geography is.

Prof. Dr. Alexander Nikolayevich Chumakov First Vice President of the Russian Philosophical Society Chair of the Department of Philosophy at the Finance University under the Government of the Russian Federation Head of the Group “Global Studies” at the Institute of Philosophy at the Russian Academy of Sciences Leading Russian Spokesman for Globalism and Globalistics, i.e. Globalisation and Global Studies

Acknowledgements

Thanks to Academician Prof. Dr. Josef Strobl, who – using the vocabulary of the e-learning guru Marc Prensky – as a “geographic native” explained spatial thinking to the author as being “geographic immigrant”.

The author cordially thanks Mrs. Andrea Lyman and Mr. Alun Brown for their endless help in reviewing the English language of this book over many years. They are the first persons having actually read through the entire book word by word. xxvii

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Fig. 0.1  This book contains a main book which consists of the following four parts: Part I Objectives, Part II Mapping, Part III Lessons learned; Part IV Conclusions. (Part V can be seen as an annex to the main book providing further details.)

Preface

The guiding idea of the present volume is to take a geographic view on the dynamics of global change. It was completed mainly during the author’s affiliation to the Institute for Geographic Information Science at the Austrian Academy of Sciences in his hometown Salzburg ( ). The underlying research question is: “What are suitable mapping strategies when detecting patterns of global dynamics in time-space?” This monograph represents a methodic piece of work on the theme of Mapping Global Dynamics and contains eight case studies ① to ➇ performed by the author that pertain to several domains in the entire field of geography and neighbouring disciplines. These eight mapping strategies are systematically summarised in Chapter 10 (Table 10.4 to Fig. 10.5 on p. 124–133) and subsequently analysed with regard to several criteria. This volume comprises a “Main Book” (Parts I, II, III, IV) and “Annexes to the Main Book” (Part V). The Main Book’s structure is visually depicted by Fig. 0.1. It comprises Objectives (Part I), Mapping (Part II), Lessons learned (Part III), and Conclusions (Part IV). These five book parts are subdivided (into 1, 8, 5, 1, 1+8+1 chapters); thus twice reflecting the 8 case studies. According to the structure suggested by Springer, each chapter’s abstract sets out to answer the following four questions using four bulleted paragraphs: • What was done? • Why did you do it? • What did you find? • Why are these findings useful and important? In Section 1.4 on p. 11, you will find a “guidance for the reader” to guide you through the several layers of this book. A pyramid is used as the logo symbolising the target of the long journey through this volume. In fact, the journey to the pyramids was a real journey. There are also other graphical symbols to facilitate and highlight the perception of key concepts. The author cordially thanks Univ.-Prof. Dr. Josef Strobl (Salzburg University and Full Member of the Austrian Academy of Sciences) who has benevolently supported this endeavour for a long time. The author furthermore wishes to thank all colleagues at Springer for their excellent cooperation during this book’s publication procedure, especially Selvaraj Ramabrabha. The newly introduced mapping symbols are now made truly visible in both book and ebook modes of this text. As is clearly seen from outset, the most valuable pages of this volume are the forewords authored by international representatives of diverse disciplines. Located on several continents and framed in various science cultures, these most outstanding authors kindly devoted their time and interest to provide a context for this book as perceived from their respective branches of science. May their most valuable transdisciplinary reframing of global change harmoniously radiate further out into readership and augment the opportunities for insight and peace on the planet. Salzburg, Austria June 2015

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Structure Main Book Part I Objectives Leading to a Vision: an Introduction 1 Objectives Leading to a Vision.......................................................................................................   5

Part II Mapping in Eight Case Studies 2 Case Study ①: Cadastral Survey of Air Emissions for Salzburg.................................................  19 3 Case Study ②: Mineralogical and Soil Properties Influence Cs Uptake.....................................  27 4 Case Study ③: Geo-localising of Air Quality Monitoring Sites...................................................  37 5 Case Study ④: Geographic Patterns of Historical Global Deforestation....................................  45 6 Case Study ⑤: Global Patterns of Energy Demand and Biomass Fuel Supply.........................  53 7 Case Study ⑥: The Chain of Agricultural Production and Consumption..................................  67 8 Case Study ⑦: Scenarios of Water Demand, Supply and Quality...............................................  93 9 Case Study ⑧: Social Mapping in the Game “Surfing Global Change”..................................... 103

Part III Lessons Learned While Mapping 10 Lesson One: Synopsis of the Eight Mapping Strategies............................................................... 121 11 Lesson Two: The Geographic Perspective..................................................................................... 143 12 Lesson Three: A Brief History of Geographic Thought............................................................... 159 13 Lesson Four: Own Deliberations on “What Is Space?”............................................................... 173 14 Lesson Five: Evolutionary Patterns............................................................................................... 187

Part IV Conclusions for Global Dynamics 15 Conclusions for Global Dynamics.................................................................................................. 211

Annex to the Main Book Part V Annexes with Additional Material from Practice 16 Annex to the Introduction: Which Definitions of Geography Are Provided by Institutions........... 239 17 Annex to Case ①: Inventories for Air Emissions: Methodologies and Trends........................... 249 18 Annex to Case ②: Geo-Referencing Radioactive Deposition and Transfer................................ 255 19 Annex to Case ③: Siting of Air Quality Monitoring Stations...................................................... 277 20 Annex to Case ④: Quantifying, Visualising and Modelling Global Deforestation..................... 291 21 Annex to Case ⑤: Modelling Future Alterations of Global Carbon Flows................................ 301 22 Annex to Case ⑥: A Scenario Generator for Global Land-­Use Change Scenarios................... 311 23 Annex to Case ⑦ : A Geo-referenceable Scenario Writing Technique........................................ 343 24 Annex to Case ⑧: Mapping Social Procedures............................................................................. 357 25 Annex to Lessons Learned: Spotlights on the History and Future of Geography.................... 383 xxx

Summary

During the last decades, the main body of work published by the author has focussed on a spatial view of global dynamics. The scope of these publications ranges from the natural to social sciences. Geography as an analytical spatial perspective integrates both of these scientific domains.

Part I: Objectives Leading to a Vision The objective of this book (Chapter 1) is answering the question: What are the most suitable mapping strategies when detecting patterns of global dynamics in time-space?

(i)

The approach: It is helpful to adopt a spatial vantage point when trying to understand “Global Dynamics”. Eight case studies including air emissions, environmental radioactivity, deforestation, energy from biomass, land-use change, food supply, water quality and also cooperative interdisciplinary learning illustrate this perspective.

(ii) The innovation: It is very helpful to perform a coordinate transformation from “space and time” into “functional state space and evolutionary time” in order to better recognise structural patterns of long-term global dynamics.

(iii) T  he vision: Such a strategy opens the way to understanding global evolution as a series of transitions where each transition creates “structures” that might be spatial structures or also institutional structures in a society. The hypothesis emerges that suitable “structures” are resistant to disappearing easily during societal evolution.

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Part II: Mapping in Eight Case Studies In this monograph, a series of eight case studies stretching across natural and social sciences (Fig. 0.2) highlights a path towards the proposed mapping approach. Case Study ① For the official cadastral survey of air emissions in the province of Salzburg, a study of the specific emissions per unit activity in an area (so-called emission factors) has been conducted. For the example of traffic emissions, additional controlling factors are the altitude above sea level and the gradient of the road. The resulting cadastral survey was produced as a traditional map by the Provincial Government of Salzburg, but its algorithm was already open for interactive display such as in Geographic Information Systems (GIS).  This first case study is an example involving classical cartography (Chapter 2). Case Study ② Experimental analysis of geographic, mineralogical and soil properties at two dozen Alpine sampling locations for plants incorporating radioactive caesium after the Chernobyl accident was performed. The specific caesium (Cs) contamination of plants per unit soil contamination (the so-called transfer factor) was computed. Both Cs fallout as such, and the Cs transfer factor, show clear dependence on the parameter “altitude”. Multivariate statistical analysis reveals that “altitude” appears in this case as an aggregate parameter merely masking a set of deeper mineralogical reasons for variations in spatial patterns of Cs transfer from soil to plants. This case study and its spatial statistical analysis leads to acknowledging the usefulness of understanding descriptive parameters as “state vectors” in a “state space” of functional or systemic properties (Chapter 3). Case Study ③ Quality control of locations for air quality monitoring sites in the Slovak Republic was undertaken according to the European Union’s “Air Quality Framework Directive” (AQFD). As required by the enforced EU “best practice guidelines”, documentation and meteorological argumentation for the appropriateness of topographic locations for the two dozen air quality monitoring sites (AQMS) in the territory of the Slovak Republic has been performed (Chapter 4). Case Study ④ Which patterns did global deforestation follow in the past? Is it possible to learn from historical data sets about the occurrence of deforestation during the expansion of civilisations? Global deforestation scenarios deduced from historical trends allow for the simplification of complex historical procedures and also produce a sensitivity analysis of the global CO2 concentration rise which depends on both deforestation and fossil fuel combustion (Chapter 5).

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Case Study ⑤ Which spatial patterns of biomass fuel production prevail and determine its global energy potential? The author’s “Combined Energy and Biosphere Model” quantitatively evaluates the theoretical production of woody biomass in a geo-referenced manner for five different plant production strategies on areas with natural or agricultural vegetation. Differently distributed spatial patterns of supply and demand for biomass energy suggest a huge need for long distance transport when trying to make practical use of the biofuel potentials estimated by theoretical models (Chapter 6). Case Study ⑥ The logical chain of agricultural production and consumption is quantitatively analysed and projected for all the countries of the world with the target of designing land-use change scenarios for the “High-Resolution Biosphere Model” (HRBM). Such scenarios can drive the climate models used in the IPCC context. Regression analyses of the author’s “Global Change Data Base” (GCDB) along the entire chain suggest that there are consecutive phases of transition into characteristic saturation states for the chained subthemes. Such analyses encourage enriching the classical concept of space by a functional “state space”, as well as replacing time by “GDP/cap”, which is interpreted as a proxy for “evolutionary time”. Such a transformation of coordinates allows for better recognition of dynamical spatial patterns. The consecutive transitions identified might be generalised as basic characteristics in the system of global food supply and demand. All these transitions will ultimately influence future global land-use change (Chapter 7). Case Study ⑦ For the Republic of Slovenia, such a theoretical understanding of complex dynamic systems by means of a “state space” is practically applied for geo-referenced scenarios of demand, supply and quality of water. Delivering such scenarios is prescribed by the European Union’s “Water Framework Directive” (WFD). The EU concept of “drivers, pressures, state, impact and response” (DPSIR) is applied to a consecutive series of quotients of statistical variables representing the drivers of water quality. These scenario drivers are geo-­referenced; their scale might reach down to the municipal level or to the level of single watersheds using existing Slovenian statistical data infrastructures. Such scenarios can be made operational by suitable GIS applications in all EU administrations (Chapter 8). Case Study ⑧ Insights into and analyses of “social spaces” are enhanced by “functional mapping”: The websupported negotiation game “Surfing Global Change” (SGC) initiates social processes in university courses in four dimensions: cognition, dialogue, team building and understanding of complementary world views. A suitably designed rhythmic interplay of social processes in these four dimensions can significantly enhance interdisciplinary learning processes, as demonstrated by the analysis of several dozens of SGC implementations. The system of rules in SGC enhances the formation of social structures among learners. SGC has been inspired by the real-world procedures of candidate countries preparing for being accepted into the European Union. “Surfing Global Change” has reached the final round of the most prestigious European Prize in media didactics, the MEDIDA-PRIX (Chapter 9). The total of all eight case studies covers the geographic subdisciplines according to Fig. 0.2 which shows the three-column architecture of geography as a science according to the contemporary German geographers Gebhardt et al. (2007: 69).

Fig. 0.2  All eight case studies numbered from ① to ➇ are localised within the classical subdisciplines of geography including both natural and social sciences, as proposed by Gebhardt et al. (2007: 69); compare Figs. 11.9 and 11.10 on pp. 150 and 151

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Summary

Part III: Lessons Learned While Mapping Some first lessons learned from the eight case studies of Part II are as follows: • Geography can be understood as a structural discipline of science, namely, as a science of pattern recognition regarding space, time and function and further as a discipline of recognising pattern dynamics in all three of these aspects – while traditional understanding of geography might only emphasise the aspect of space. • Classically, geography includes physio-geography, human geography and a multiparadigmatic bridgehead pertaining to environment and society (Fig. 0.2). Environmental themes are intrinsically part of geography because (1) they highlight the double nature of geography being a natural and social discipline and (2) they encompass a plethora of paradigms between environmental determinism versus action orientation. • Geography intrinsically includes didactics because space is essentially constructed  – as understood mainly in human geography – and construction of any knowledge is the field of didactics. • Developmental themes, globalisation and developmental economics, e.g. in the concrete shape of developmentally oriented Global Studies curricula, are part of developmental geography, hence geography. An overview of Part III elaborating the five lessons learned is given here: Chapter 10 (with the hierarchical meaning of III.1) begins with comparing the eight mapping strategies, Chap. 11 (with the hierarchical meaning of III.2) continues with characteristics of the geographic perspective, Chap. 12 (with the hierarchical meaning of III.3) proceeds with a historic series of geographic approaches, and Chap. 13 (with the hierarchical meaning of III.4) adds own deliberations on the nature of space. Lastly, Chap. 14 (with the hierarchical meaning of III.5) discusses evolutionary patterns. Each of these five chapters in Part III has five sections. Analytically comparing mapping strategies is elaborated in the following five sections of this summary, here numbered III.1 to III.5, and entitled “Lesson One” to “Lesson Five” in the table of contents:

III.1 Lesson One Chapter 10, entitled “Synopsis of the Eight Mapping Strategies”, starts by listing systemic characteristic properties of the eight mapping cases (Sect. 10.1) that may pertain to elements, interactions and perspectives. All eight case studies fall into a system defined by this book as the following three dimensions of functional space (Sect. 10.2): • One-dimensional or multi-dimensional functional space • Deterministic (static truth) or autotelic functional structures (dynamically changing over time) • Linear (mono-causal) or looped (multi-causal, network-like) functional system. These three dimensions allow to portray all eight cases in a “methodological space” created by the above three basic dimensions spanning up a methodological cube (Fig. 10.2, p. 127) that allows “mapping the mapping strategies”. Spatial patterns are systemically co-determined (in the sense that they determine and are determined) by mutually influencing, mutually interdependent functional structures and functional patterns. Geographic reasoning may take the direction from causal relationships to spatial patterns as well as the reverse direction (Sect. 10.3 and Table 0.1 at right).

Summary

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Section 10.4 overlooks innovative steps in mapping realities along the eight case studies and suggests the following three cascades of key improvements when representing spatial, temporal and functional patterns: • No time – stepwise time – continuous time • No space – stepwise space – continuous space • No functions – determined functional space – continuous functional space – autocreative functional space. Hence, world views or cultures of understanding mean perception along sequences of manifoldness in the three domains of time, space and functionalities in single ➔ several ➔ continuous ➔ looped (hence autopoietic) manner. The proposed globe of geographic understanding (Sect. 10.5) maps the steps of improvements in mapping strategies. The main theme of the entire book, namely, to map the dynamics of global change, can be conceived in three dimensions relating to three types of questions: • As changes and patterns of changes in time (when?) • As changes and patterns of changes in space (where?) • As changes and patterns of changes in functional or communicational relationships (in which role?). “Global change” on a general level or meta-level might be seen as a shift of emphasis within these three principal dimensions of perception of reality, namely, from time and space towards functional spaces. III.2 Lesson Two Chapter 11, entitled “The Geographic Perspective”, proposes that geography itself is defined as a science that provides views and perspectives. It restarts considerations by deliberating that mapping means taking a standpoint outside the mapped system that is often inaccessible to humans (e.g. a bird’s eye view). Such standpoint may pertain to the level of facts, functions or perspectives – and the eight case studies cover all these three levels. III.3 Lesson Three In Chapter 12, entitled “A Brief History of Geographic Thought”, the history and evolving paradigms of geography are shown, including economic and developmental geography. Visions of space in geographic literature vary within the broad range of container space versus functional space (i.e. space of relations and of communication) versus space as a social construct. During the last century, geographic spaces and social spaces have been mapped by using most different metrics. Throughout this book, the yellow logo in Table 0.1 above is used for geo-space, and the logo in Table 0.1 below is used for functional space. Table 0.1  Which patterns occur in which spaces? Two main logos are used in this book: the geo-globe (yellow, with white lines) and the functional globe (white, with yellow lines). Both have “maps” characteristic of their spaces (compare Table 10.11 on p. 129)

Which patterns?

Logo

Map in which space?

Case study

Spatial patterns

Map in geodetic space

①③⑤⑦

Functional patterns

Map in functional space

②④⑥⑧

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Summary

III. 4 Lesson Four As Chapter 13, the author’s “own deliberations on what is space?” start out with Boltzmann’s seminal formula “S = k . log W” that linked formerly most different areas in science (Sect. 13.1). It inspires hypothesising a metric of space based on communication (Sect. 13.2) while distinguishig potential and enacted communication (Sect. 13.3), applicable also to virtual spaces (Sect. 13.5). Nearness is defined to be proportional to the logarithm of the number of communication options. In any case, “space” is seen as a result of the underlying communication process. Sect. 13.4 suggests to understand time as an option to learn. According to the French philosopher Lefebvre, space includes spatial practice, representation of space and representational space, and this book’s own suggestions allow formulaic understanding of this entire triad (Table 13.1 on p. 180). III. 5 Lesson Five Chapter 14, entitled “Evolutionary Patterns”, shows how trend patterns of global population, land use, agriculture, energy and economics can be perceived in time and space, while understanding that spatial structures and social relations are mutually constitutive (Sect. 14.1). Time-space patterns can be perceived more easily when choosing the representation in suitable space – this could be geo-space, time-space or functional space. Essentially, any (spatial) metric depends of the selected functionality constituting that space (Sect. 14.2). The optimal space of perception is understood to be the evolutionary functional space: A synopsis of all cases suggests that a transformation from the coordinate spaces of space and time into state space and evolutionary time facilitates detection and quantitative cognition of dynamic patterns of evolutionary development. Especially the identification of characteristic paths of development may become easier. • If followed logically to its end, given the principal material limits of the planet Earth, physical determinism and all possible alternative concepts of thinking may lead to cascades of saturation as an evolutionary paradigm, called here “blossoming evolution” (Sect. 14.3). Resulting (spatial or dynamic) patterns may partly be explained by spatial autocorrelation (e.g. dispersion modelling), but other functional patterns superimpose on such a (classically geographic) paradigm, e.g. masking parameters, granularity of regionalisation, different spatial distribution of different drivers, social spaces, political procedures and autopoietic developmental procedures (e.g. describable by temporal autocorrelation). Furthermore, this book understands any space as evolutionary space – produced by repeated, iterative reflection (Sect. 14.4). A relevant question can be: “To what degree can a complex spatial issue be understood when using solely the classical geographic paradigm?” • Geographic literature of the last decades and the quantitative analyses of this book suggest a clear answer: geography is a multiparadigmatic science. Such multi-perspectivistic perception is named meta-geography in this book (Sect. 14.5). Essentially, “reality” as such is an evolutionary entity, and can be co-produced and co-created by consciousness – this is one key message of the entire book.

Summary

xxxvii

Part IV: Conclusions for Global Dynamics The “Conclusions” of this book (Chap. 15) are summarised here as follows, addressing the four levels of I. practice, II. methodology, III. metatheory and IV. philosophy as these pertain to the entire domain of geography (Fig. 1.1 on p. 7 and Fig. 15.1 on p. 212 in Sect. 15.1): • The eight mapping strategies ① to ⑧ are understood as endeavours of pattern recognition in geo-spaces but also in functional, social and other spaces. Such mapping can pertain to facts ( ), functions ( ) or perspectives and views ( ); compare Table 1.1 on p. 6.

I. Practice • For all eight case studies, both geo-maps and functional maps have been produced in order to suitably portray the level of practice (see thumbnails in Fig. 15.2 on p. 215). • For all eight case studies, the brief descriptions, the mottos, the pertaining acts of mapping and the directions of reasoning are synoptically presented in Tables 15.1 to 15.3 on p. 213ff. • As one example, these two modes of maps created for case ⑥ allow to heuristically assess the explanatory power of the paradigms of spatial autocorrelation and temporal autocorrelation which could respresent the approaches of geography and economy (Table 15.4 on p. 215). It becomes visible that both paradigms are needed to explain reality.

II. Methodology • In order to suitably and most generally portray the level of methodology, this book proposes a methodological cube (Fig. 15.3 on p. 217), a globe of geographic understanding (Fig. 15.5 on p. 219) and a methodological landscape (Fig. 15.4 on p. 218; in more detail in Fig. 10.5 of p. 132f), where the methodical mapping innovations are identified from case to case. • When perseverating on the same track after the eight case studies, we reach at “steering while living” ( ). • The real-world cases show that the change rates of structural parameters describing a complex system are not constant but that their change rates change in themselves and are a function of their development phases, hence of evolutionary time. This is a concrete example for a mega-trend provided by this book; some are provided in Table 15.7 on p. 225. • The methodical interest thus focuses on structures, structural dynamics, and the circumstances of their transitions. • It is hence suggested to recognise structural and functional patterns and their shifts (“transitions”) during global change. • The methodological sequence suggests perceiving that sequences of manifoldness may occur in the perception of time t, space x and functional relationships f. For all these entities, such sequences seem to range from single to several, to continuous and to looped, hence autopoietic.

xxxviii

III. Metatheory • When generalising historic evolutionary developments quantified in this book on the level of metatheory, a (seemingly regular) series of transitions in a consecutive logical chain of cause and effect seems to best characterise the long-term global dynamic pattern of agriculture and land-use change (“blossoming evolution”). • The process of long-term global civilisation may be seen to consist in the evolutionary creation of structures as a consequence of these transitions: in practice, such structures can be spatial, social and also institutional. In the above-mentioned case study ➅, of the global dynamics of land-use change and its drivers, namely, production, distribution, supply and demand of cereals, it is proposed by the author to distinguish consecutive saturation curves as “elementary processes of long-term civilisational evolution” describing the structure of global mega-trends (Table 15.4 on p. 215).

IV. Philosophy • On the level of philosophy, several conclusions are proposed (structured by bracketed capital Roman numbers (I) to (VIII) and pictured by Fig. 15.7 to Table 15.7 on pp. 220– 225) that shall describe the structure of global meta-trends, i.e. the evolutionary changes of systems development and structure formation (Sect. 15.3): (I) Ever stronger emphasis on communication and functional relationships as compared to mere facts. (II) Increasing emphasis on acting as compared to mere understanding. (III) Ever more dense and complex manifestation in all types of spaces (x, t, f) along the sequence “single ➔ several ➔ continuous ➔ circular, hence autopoietic”. Manifoldness is increasingly perceived and reality expresses itself increasingly in reflected, autopoietic manner (i.e. constructing itself). (IV) As a consequence, time and space are also increasingly autopoietic entities, i.e. are self-constructed. (V) A new, communication-based metric of space may allow the describing of Lefebvre’s triad of space. (VI) Emphasis shifts from facts ( in x & t) ➔ (functional, communicational) relationships ( , f) ➔ views & perspectives ( , p), while in this sequence perspectives themselves become a self-constructing entity. (VII) Emphasis of perception shifts from facts ➔ single ➔ multiple perspectives (multi-­ culturalism) ➔ holo-perspectivism (360° view) ➔ perspective-less vision (named here meta-geography). (VIII) Evolutionary structure building is seen as result of a series of saturation states: “blossoming evolution”. • The futuristic vision of this book is to map global awareness, i.e. the p-world ( ) e.g. by an Interperspective Information System (IIS; see Fig. 15.10 on p. 223) in order to facilitate the handling of secular geopolitical conflicts by means of consensus building. Such interparadigmatic understanding is attempted via curricula of Global Studies.

Profoundly speaking, the essence of this book is to merge the threefold approach of, firstly, mapping methods, secondly, spatial theory, and thirdly, evolutionary theory (Sect. 15.4).

In the view of meta-geography, Global Structural Change means a shift within perception and understanding.

Summary

Contents

Mapping Global Dynamics Main Book Part I  Objectives Leading to a Vision: an Introduction 1 Objectives Leading to a Vision................................................................................ 5 1.1 Methods to Map Dynamic Development................................................................................   6 1.2 The Research Question...........................................................................................................   8 1.3 Definition of Key Terms.........................................................................................................  10 1.4 Guidance to the Reader...........................................................................................................  11 References..........................................................................................................................................  12

Part II Mapping in Eight Case Studies 2 Case Study ①: Cadastral Survey of Air Emissions for Salzburg.........................  19

References..........................................................................................................................................  26

3 Case Study ②: Mineralogical and Soil Properties Influence Cs Uptake.............  27

References..........................................................................................................................................  36

4 Case Study ③: Geo-localising of Air Quality Monitoring Sites............................  37

References..........................................................................................................................................  44

5 Case Study ④: Geographic Patterns of Historical Global Deforestation............  45

References..........................................................................................................................................  51

6 Case Study ⑤: Global Patterns of Energy Demand and Biomass Fuel Supply...............................................................................................................  53 References..........................................................................................................................................  65

7 Case Study ⑥: The Chain of Agricultural Production and Consumption.....................................................................................................  67 References..........................................................................................................................................  91

8 Case Study ⑦: Scenarios of Water Demand, Supply and Quality.......................  93

References.......................................................................................................................................... 100

9 Case Study ⑧: Social Mapping in the Game “Surfing Global Change”............. 103

References.......................................................................................................................................... 113

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Contents

Part III Lessons Learned While Mapping 10 Lesson One: Synopsis of the Eight Mapping Strategies....................................... 121

10.1 Lists of Systemic Characteristic Properties of the Eight Mapping Cases................................................................................................................... 123 10.2 Three Basic Dimensions of Characteristics May Describe All Case Studies................................................................................................................. 126 10.3 From Causal Relationships to Spatial Patterns and Back Again........................................ 129 10.4 Overlooking the Innovative Steps in Mapping Realities.................................................... 130 10.5 What Global Change Can Be in a Meta-Structural View................................................... 135 References.......................................................................................................................................... 142

11 Lesson Two: The Geographic Perspective............................................................. 143

11.1 A Suggested Definition of Geography............................................................................... 148 11.2 Main Constituents of Geography as a Science................................................................... 149 11.3 Subdivisions Within the Science of Geography................................................................. 150 11.4 Concepts of Spaces in Geography...................................................................................... 153 11.5 What Geographers May Map: Geodetic Spaces and Social Spaces................................... 154 References.......................................................................................................................................... 156

12 Lesson Three: A Brief History of Geographic Thought....................................... 159

12.1 Modes of Perceiving in Classical Geographies.................................................................. 160 12.2 Reflections on Geography: Themes and Spatial Autocorrelation....................................... 162 12.3 Geography and GIS Develop as a Multiparadigmatic Science.......................................... 163 12.4 Paradigms in Recent Economic and Developmental Geography....................................... 165 12.5 The Search for Metrics of Space in Twentieth-Century Geography.................................. 167 References.......................................................................................................................................... 170

13 Lesson Four: Own Deliberations on “What Is Space?”....................................... 173

13.1 Reconciliation of Irreconcilable Paradigms Means Progress............................................. 175 13.2 Distance As a Notion Is Based on Interaction and Communication.................................. 178 13.3 Potential and Enacted Communication.............................................................................. 180 13.4 The Essence of Time: An Option to Learn......................................................................... 182 13.5 Metrics in Virtual Spaces.................................................................................................... 183 References.......................................................................................................................................... 184

14 Lesson Five: Evolutionary Patterns....................................................................... 187

14.1 Mapping Dynamic Time-Space Structures of Global Development.................................. 189 14.2 Perceiving Through Several Spaces Simultaneously......................................................... 192 14.3 A Practical Method to Map Dynamics in Space-Time....................................................... 194 14.4 What May Constitute Evolution of Structures................................................................... 198 14.5 Towards Multiperspectivistic Perception: Meta-geography............................................... 202 References.......................................................................................................................................... 204

Part IV Conclusions for Global Dynamics 15 Conclusions for Global Dynamics.......................................................................... 211

15.1 Conclusions from the Objectives........................................................................................ 212 15.2 Conclusions from the Eight Case Studies.......................................................................... 213 15.3 Conclusions from the Lessons Learned.............................................................................. 217 15.4 The Essence of This Book.................................................................................................. 227 References.......................................................................................................................................... 232

Mapped, Globalised, Dynamised

Contents

xli

Annex to the Main Book Part V  Annexes with Additional Material from Practice 16 Annex to the Introduction: Which Definitions of Geography Are Provided by Institutions................................................................................... 239

16.1 Approach to This Piece of Geographic Work..................................................................... 239 16.2 Definitions of Geography by Geographic Societies........................................................... 240 16.3 Methodologies in Geography............................................................................................. 241 16.4 Geography’s Perspectives and Epistemologies According to Literature............................ 243 16.5 Navigating the Alps............................................................................................................ 246 References.......................................................................................................................................... 248

17 Annex to Case ①: Inventories for Air Emissions: Methodologies a nd Trends.................................................................................................................. 249

17.1 Methodology for an Energy and Emission Balance........................................................... 250 17.2 Detailed Description of the Calculation Methodology....................................................... 251 17.3 Detailed Description of the Results.................................................................................... 252 17.4 Two Methods for Emission Projection............................................................................... 252 17.5 Possible Application of These Methods in Other Cities..................................................... 254 References.......................................................................................................................................... 254

18 Annex to Case ②: Geo-Referencing Radioactive Deposition and Transfer........ 255



18.1 Relevance of Environmental Radioprotection.................................................................... 256 18.2 A Study on Geo-Referencing Radioactivity in the Tauern Region of the Alps.......................................................................................................................... 257 18.3 Caesium Contamination of the Underwater Sediments...................................................... 258 18.4 Caesium Contamination of the Soil Samples..................................................................... 263 18.5 Caesium Contamination of the Plants................................................................................ 267 18.6 Dependence of the Transfer Factors for Caesium.............................................................. 269 18.7 Control Experiments Regarding Particle Size Distribution................................................ 270 18.8 Suitability for a Geographic Information System GIS....................................................... 272 18.9 Detection of Main Geofunctional Dependencies in the Soil-Plant System................................................................................................................................ 273 18.10 Overview of Spatial Properties........................................................................................... 274 References.......................................................................................................................................... 276

19 Annex to Case ③: Siting of Air Quality Monitoring Stations............................... 277

19.1 Structure of the Report on the AQMS in the Slovak Republic........................................... 278 19.2 Air Quality Monitoring Station in Hnúšťa......................................................................... 279 19.3 Air Quality Monitoring Station in Jelšava.......................................................................... 281 19.4 A Geo-referenceable Example: Steel Works in Košice...................................................... 285 19.5 Conclusions and Recommendations for AQMS Siting...................................................... 287 References.......................................................................................................................................... 290

20 Annex to Case ④: Quantifying, Visualising and Modelling Global Deforestation................................................................................................ 291

20.1 The Global Carbon Cycle................................................................................................... 291 20.2 Disturbance of the Global Carbon Cycle by Deforestation................................................ 292 20.3 Net Carbon Flow to the Atmosphere.................................................................................. 295 20.4 Mapping Global Biomass Density..................................................................................... 298 20.5 Detailed Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the Global Carbon Cycle........................................ 298 References.......................................................................................................................................... 300

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Contents

21 Annex to Case ⑤: Modelling Future Alterations of Global Carbon Flows......... 301



21.1 Mathematical Approaches to Global Modelling................................................................ 301 21.2 The Model Architecture of a Global Biomass Energy Model............................................ 303 21.3 Functional Patterns of Carbon Flows................................................................................. 304 21.4 Deviating Global Carbon Flows for Global Energy Needs................................................ 306 21.5 Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Carbon Flows................................................................ 308 References.......................................................................................................................................... 310

22 Annex to Case ⑥: A Scenario Generator for Global Land-­Use Change Scenarios................................................................................... 311

22.1 Summary of This Chapter.................................................................................................. 312 22.2 Aim of the Chapter............................................................................................................. 312 22.3 The Method: A Socio-economic Database with an Analytical Tool.................................. 313 22.4 The Conceptual Framework for Productivity in Agriculture.............................................. 314 22.5 The Supply Side of Global Agricultural Productivity........................................................ 316 22.6 The Demand Side of Global Food Production................................................................... 316 22.7 The Economic Factor Input to Agricultural Production..................................................... 320 22.8 Structure of Scenarios for the Demand Side: A Chain Formula........................................ 322 22.9 Quantitative Development of the Structural Variables....................................................... 325 22.10 Trends for the Structural Variables..................................................................................... 329 22.11 Projection of Trends Until 2050: A Dynamics-As-Usual Scenario.................................... 333 22.12 Modified Scenarios Until 2050........................................................................................... 335 22.13 Generalising Description of the Modelling Strategy.......................................................... 338 22.14 Conclusions for This Chapter............................................................................................. 339 References.......................................................................................................................................... 342

23 Annex to Case ⑦ : A Geo-referenceable Scenario Writing Technique................ 343



23.1 Summary of This Chapter.................................................................................................. 343 23.2 Reason and Motivation for a Baseline Scenario................................................................. 344 23.3 Earlier Examples for Scenario Writing Methodologies..................................................... 344 23.4 An Original Approach to Long-Term Scenarios Based on Trend Analyses.............................................................................................................. 345 23.5 Structures for Methodologies Leading to a WFD Baseline Scenario (BLS)................................................................................................................... 349 23.6 The DPSIR Conceptual Framework................................................................................... 349 23.7 Architecture of a Baseline Scenario BLS........................................................................... 350 23.8 Underlying Conceptual Model for the Dynamic Behaviour of the BLS............................ 352 23.9 Strategy for Filling Data into the System Architecture...................................................... 353 23.10 Formal Description of the BLS Method............................................................................. 353 23.11 More Detailed Project Documentation............................................................................... 354 23.12 The Strategic Context for This Entire Piece of Work......................................................... 354 23.13 Advantages of This Method for a BLS............................................................................... 355 References.......................................................................................................................................... 356

24 Annex to Case ⑧: Mapping Social Procedures...................................................... 357



24.1 Statistics of Communication.............................................................................................. 358 24.2 Indivisible Elements of Consideration: Perspectives......................................................... 364 24.3 Which Basic Dimensions Exist in Social Processes?......................................................... 372 24.4 Implications for Interdisciplinary Learning....................................................................... 374 24.5 Global Studies.................................................................................................................... 375 References.......................................................................................................................................... 379

25 Annex to Lessons Learned: Spotlights on the History and Future of Geography............................................................................................................ 383

25.1 A Sequence of Paradigms in Geography............................................................................ 383 25.2 Paradigmatic Shifts in Economic and Developmental Theories........................................ 386 25.3 Understanding of Space-Time Patterns in Human Geography.......................................... 386 25.4 Abstract Concepts of Space and Time in Geography and in Physics................................. 387 25.5 Revisiting the Key Concepts of This Book........................................................................ 389 References.......................................................................................................................................... 396

Appendix: Selection of Geographic Literature............................................................. 401 Literature.......................................................................................................................... 409 Index.................................................................................................................................. 431

Main Book

Part I Objectives Leading to a Vision: an Introduction

1

Objectives Leading to a Vision

Abstract

• What will the future bring for our globe – and how may we act on it? Ultimately, this book is written in order to deliberate and develop several strategies to understand the deeper meaning of global change and globalisation. One of this book’s answers is: the future materialises as a “structural transition”. For our dayto-day living, “structural transition” may mean a change in the systemic functioning of our lives  – a transition which we might practically welcome and even consciously shape through our enhanced understanding. • With the intention of understanding structural dynamics in concrete long-term global evolution, this book perceives, structures and theorises a series of eight case studies that all have spatial relevance. The overall amount of detail provided by this book’s three decades of research supports the development of a methodological framework in eight steps of increasing complexity for how to map dynamic developments. • Geography – the “home discipline” of this book – is seen as a science of complexity. Its key approach of pattern recognition is proposed to pertain not only to space but also to time and functional relationships. In this book: (i) The objective is to examine: how to map the future? (ii) The approach is to explore the manner in which dynamics of time-space can be included in classical

mapping and thus allow the perception of patterns of globalisation. (iii) The innovation is to use transformed coordinates to better cognise structural dynamics in transitions. • This book understands that geography is a perspective of research. Therefore, it analyses the plethora of paradigms of space, mapping, patterns and geography and applies them to global change. • As a grand picture, it is proposed to view the long-term evolution of understanding and science during the past centuries as follows: in a growing degree of complexity, first single and then multiple expressions of the following three entities are perceived: facts, interactions and perspectives. • Moreover, this introductory chapter provides the reader guidance for the entire book Mapping Global Dynamics and leads to its four levels (symbolised in a pyramid), namely, practice, methodology, metatheory and philosophy that correspond to the composition of the volume.

Keywords

Mapping · Global change · Dynamics · Geography · Space · Spatial perspective · Complexity · Evolution · Time-space · Patterns · Geographic paradigms · Vision · Pattern recognition · Pyramid of science

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019 G. Ahamer, Mapping Global Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51704-9_1

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1  Objectives Leading to a Vision

1.1

Methods to Map Dynamic Development

The third millennium is the millennium of complexity.

The objectives of this book are to examine: How to map the future? How to map dynamic development? How to map geo-referenced scenarios? This text is a methodological piece of work that attempts to address these questions. As outlined in Part I of the summary of this volume on p. xxxi, (i) the approach is to adopt a spatial perspective, (ii) the innovation is to perform a coordinate transformation and (iii) the vision is to understand evolution as a series of transitions. These three components lead to the suggestions of the “lessons learned” in Part III: pattern recognition firstly with respect to spatial patterns; secondly, to patterns in time; and, thirdly, to functional patterns.

Science and its methods must be developed further to deal with complexity. “Patterns” are one manifestation of complexity. Geography as a science of complexity (RGC 1997: 70) has always dealt with patterns; hence, geography can be seen as a structural science. Understanding the dynamic aspects of patterns, of structures – and consequently even of geography itself – is the focus of this book. In Table 1.1, we view the overall history of the sciences and the types of tasks that the sciences have tackled, mastered or failed to master so far. The impression arises that until now, tasks with comparatively simple causal relationships have been mastered well by traditional mathematised, reductionist disciplinary science (above row in Table  1.1) that has largely succeeded in circumventing the enormously complex problems real life poses. An example from the author’s memory: Until now, environmental policies have been able to solve many issues caused by single, large emitters of air emissions such as factories or power plants; but they have not yet successfully tackled the emissions of households and traffic caused by large populations of diffuse and incoherent small-­scale emitters, such as each and every one of us, exhibiting complex behaviour that calls for systems analysis. The lower row of Table 1.1 names sciences dealing with manifolds of above items. Didactics and social sciences search for a suitable description of (autopoietic and autotelic; see Ossimitz 2000; Csíkszentmihályi 1990; Hüther 2004, 2008a) dynamics of large complex (learning) systems (cell below right).

Interest in finding patterns regarding space, time and functionalities suggests such a mode of cognition that should deliver an image of reality’s structures, not the structures of the perceiving lens. Readers might be familiar firstly with numerous spatial patterns from geography and geology (such as the shape of the profile of an Alpine valley telling the story of the valley’s genesis during and since the Ice Ages); secondly temporal patterns from economics or history (such as economic cycles, waves and trends); and thirdly functional patterns from mathematics, physics and technology. Viewing the long-term history of the sciences, we may expect that the final result and the overall perspective of this work will be the dynamic change of such recognised patterns, here identified and named as structural transitions. These structural transitions are similar to the phase changes in physics, homeopathy, didactics and psychiatry, where molecular structures or mental structures show dynamic transitions.

So, let’s reformulate the above diagnostic statement as a hopeful vision: May the third millennium lead to successfully managing life’s complexity!

Table 1.1  Evolution of understanding: Viewing the secular evolution of disciplines suggests that the science of the third millennium will deal with multiple perspectives (Ahamer et al. 2010b) and with complexity,

increasing from “single” to “many” along the downward arrows from first to second row (Ahamer 2010a). Hence, in this book, interest focuses on the two shaded areas below right

Interaction (of elements)

Perspective (on interaction of elements)

“Single ones” (low compl.)

Mechanics

Logics

Directive instruction

“Manifold” (higher complexity)

Statistical thermodynamics

Systems analysis

20th cent.

19th cent.

(degree of complexity)

Self-referenced patterns of social interaction

21st cent.

Element

1.1 Methods to Map Dynamic Development

7

Geographic science is understood here in this larger sense as the endeavour of a stepwise more profound science of pattern recognition, be these patterns spatial, temporal or even functional (see Chap. 10). The question should be asked: What is the origin of patterns? Observable reality is understood, in this context, to be the result of an ongoing evolutionary process of self-organisation which culminates in the production of structures (in space, time and functional space – where functional space is the entirety of all possible interactions and mutual relationships) in an interactive way, by means of interaction or “communication” – as proposed by systems analysis and (second-order) cybernetics. Such structures emerge during so-called (structural) transitions.

(i) The approach of this book is to assess whether it is helpful to adopt a spatial vantage point for detecting patterns of global dynamics and analyse in what respect it is helpful to go beyond it. This book explores the manner in which dynamics of time-space can be included so that it is most suitable for the given problem and allows the easiest perception and discernment of patterns of globalisation. In brief, the key aim of this text (according to the title) is to map global dynamics. It develops a consistent series of eight mapping methodologies in case studies from ① to ⑧ and then provides suggestions for how to understand globalisation on a meta-level. (ii) The innovation is to use transformed “coordinates” (hence metrics) to more effectively and concisely recognise structural and functional patterns and their dynamic, evolutionary shift during global change and globalisation. A further aim of this text is to innovatively use mapping strategies to find prerequisites for future cognition of patterns of global change and globalisation and develop methodologies for detecting and discerning particular (a) Structures (b) Structural dynamics (c) The (spatial, temporal, structural, organisational and institutional) circumstances of their transitions.

Philosophy

(iii) The vision is to predict likely future developments in civilisation, facilitated by such undertakings. This could enhance the possibility of managing such transitions and redirect them towards sustainability and global cooperation. Using this book’s suggested approaches leads to the suggesting of an iterative, evolutionary and saturating structure of techno-socioeconomic development that may be described as blossoming evolution (Chap. 14 and last page of Sect. 22.10). The following eight case studies ① to ⑧ serve as a guide towards the proposed mapping approach. The majority of this book’s figures attempt to facilitate readers’ insight into structures and structural dynamics. The eight cases inform about both practice and methodology, as is typical for any scientific endeavour according to the pyramid of science found in Borsdorf (1999: 21) according to Abler et al. (1971: 4). Regarding metatheory (Borsdorf 1999: 21), this sequence leads from positivism (cases ① to ③) via hermeneutics (④ to ⑤) to constructivism (⑥ to ⑧). This volume tries to contribute to all four layers of the “pyramid of (geographic) science” (see Fig. 1.1).

vision

Metatheory Methodology Practice

objectives

Fig. 1.1 The pyramid of geographic science according to Abler et al. (1971: 4), cited after Borsdorf (1999: 21). The present book sets out to contribute to all layers of geographic thinking: practice, methodology, metatheory and philosophy

8

1.2

1  Objectives Leading to a Vision

The Research Question

The research question of this book is:

What are suitable “mapping strategies” when detecting patterns of global dynamics in time-space?

Regarding scientific discipline, this is typically a geographic question dealing fundamentally with the concept of space. Concepts of geography and of space have been further developed by contemporary geographers such as Peter Haggett (2001), Peter Gould (1999), David Harvey (1989), Ed W.  Soja (1989), Benno Werlen (1987), Torsten Hägerstrand (1967), Ronald Abler et  al. (1971), Manuel Castells (1996) and others. This book understands that geography is a perspective of research, not an object of research. Geography means to integrate across a spatial viewpoint (see Sect. 16.1 on p. 239). A central tenet of geography is that location matters (RGC 1997: 30). Let us now look into several definitions of geography. Now, let us look into several definitions of geography provided by geographers worldwide: According to the British Royal Geographical Society (RGS 2013) founded in 1830, “geography is, quite simply, about the world in which we live. Geography informs us about (…) how and why the world is changing, globally and locally; how our individual and societal actions contribute to those changes; and the choices that exist in managing our world for the future”. The Rediscovering Geography Committee at the US National Research Council finds that the following coherent set of three perspectives hold the geographic discipline together (RGC 1997: 28): (1) the lenses of place, space and scale through which the world is analysed; (2) synthesis between dynamic systems in environment, society, economics and politics; and (3) multiple modes of spatial representations including visual and verbal (see Fig. 16.2 on p. 243). The Association of American Geographers (AAG 2013) states “what geography is all about: trying to make sense of the world”. In his book “Modern Geographical Thought”, the British-American geographer Richard Peet (1998: 47) discerns “positivist geography that looks at environment and sees space” and “humanistic geography that looks at environment and sees place”. Thus, modern geography visibly embraces diverse scientific paradigms.

The German geographer Joachim Scheiner (2002: 22f) perceives that “in geography a powerful paradigmatic change is emerging: swinging from a cosmological to a sociological paradigm, from space to society, from nature to culture, from body to spirit, from matter to meaning”. The present book traces this change. The French philosopher Henri Lefebvre (1991, 1975) suggests the triad of spatial practice, representations of space and spaces of representations (Formula 11.3 on p. 148; Unwin 2000: 16) to order the multitude of notions of space. This collection of contemporary concepts shows that the formerly purely geodetic understanding of space has extended into state space (e.g. in physics) and social spaces (e.g. in sociology). Therefore, present-day geography covers all such notions of space, while taking perspectives from natural, social and philological sciences (Hard 1973: 237). More definitions of geography by geographic institutions are portrayed in Sect. 16.2 on p. 240, and a wider scope of geographic approaches is analysed in Chaps. 11 and 12 on pp. 143–170, while this present introductory chapter provides merely a first condensed view on what constitutes geography. According to literature (e.g. Knox and Agnew 1997; Gebhardt et  al. 2007), during the history of geography concepts of space and of geography were as follows (Chap. 12 and Sect. 25.1): where questions were initially asked, and then around 1800–1950, the question became what is where? For philosopher Immanuel Kant (1724–1804), Lagrange and other (mostly French) mathematicians (Hund 1972), the categories of space and time represented the fundaments for cognition. In such understandings, only space and time enable access to the world. Peter Haggett’s (2001: 27; 2000) “geography on the beach” is an example of the quantitative revolution started after the 1980s. David Harvey (1989: 240) coined the term timespace compression in his book The Condition of Postmodernity, where it refers to “processes that … revolutionise the objective qualities of space and time”. This period also included the genesis of Geographic Information Science (GIS) as well as Benno Werlen’s (1992) action-oriented research. According to paradigms in sociology, modern geographic concepts include functionalism, structuralism and structural functionalism, behavioural social geography, a positivist or quantitative revolution, time geography, action-oriented research, mental maps and poststructuralist paradigms oriented to discourse. Geography as such underwent the so-­ called linguistic turn, and finally, after using hybrid approaches, geography became narrative (Aitken and Valentine 2006; Agnew et  al. 1996). Additionally, the paradigm of space enlarged to social spaces (Bourdieu 1989).

1.2 The Research Question

Space has never been an unequivocal concept and the understanding of space broadened from “purely geographic space” to state space as used since the twentieth century in mathematics and physics for the entirety of all modes of existence (i.e. states) a system can assume; this concept is included in Chap. 13. Analogously, in human geography, space is a space for action (in German: Handlungsraum); this means the entirety of all options and possibilities (to act) (Melnick 1989). Abstract concepts of space and time in geography and in physics are dealt with in Sect. 25.4. Based on experiments, contemporary quantum mechanics has proposed fundamentally new concepts of space (Schiemann 2006) and even a change in the structure of causality. Self-referential systems are touched at in Sect. 25.5.1. Restarting with the earliest approaches in geography, to the author, the related concepts of acting in space mean (a) knowledge of the terrain which means knowledge of the options for movement in space, (b) knowledge of individual possibilities to seize these options, (c) portraying and delimiting all possible options for action, (d) functionally and structurally fathoming the preconditions for action, (e) narrating the most newsworthy actions and (f) concluding from the preceding spaces of action to future ones still unheard of. The last item is the metatheory, the second highest level of the pyramid in Fig.  1.1 on p. 7, and the entire path from (a) to (f) is walked in this book. All these thoughts may keep the door open to mindfully understanding what makes up space, time, energy and patterns. Summing up, visions of space can be among other things (Unwin 1992: 1, Ahamer et al. 2010b: 303): • The (externally given) substrate for each reality to find a place in global and objective systems of coordinates (intersubjectively reliable: Becker 1969; Geiss 1981; Dorn 1991; Wee 1975; Wesson 2007) • Space as a container for realities (study the container to better understand the realities; Schmeikal 1993) • Space as a social construct (Carr and Chan-Fai 2004; Werlen 1993, 2010; Le Monde diplomatique 2011) • A facilitator of procedures which provides the possibility for actors to interact (in space they may interact).

9

In geographic literature, concepts of mapping have been varying (Sect. 11.5). Generally, a map reveals to the viewer a concise idea of underlying functional interrelations within the mapped entity. Gould and White (2002: 1) refer to the sensed, perceived physical landscape (mental maps); Haggett (1990) monitored the spatial diffusion process of farmers making use of offers for agricultural subsidies. For highlighting communicational spaces, geographer Peter Gould mapped the social relations in Shakespeare’s drama “Romeo and Juliet” as locations in the “behavioural space” (Fig. 11.15 on p. 155), thus performing social mapping. This book assumes that mapping often means attaining a (previously unattainable) standpoint in order to overlook the situation without perspective-bound distortions (Chap. 11), and that a map is always linked to the underlying model, understanding and paradigm (Fig. 10.1 on p. 122; Wood 1992; Pickles 1995; Schuurman 2009). Generally, a map can be defined here as a graphical structure that triggers deep understanding in the viewer about the underlying functional relationships and dynamics of underlying reality. In geographic literature, diverse concepts of patterns have been implemented (Sect. 12.5). For Haggett (1990), one possible metric for space may be based on vector maps of a (communicative or functional) diffusion process in time-­ space (see “travel distances” above in Fig. 12.5 on p. 167). He portrayed similar spatial diffusion processes for the spread of measles in the Pacific, for airline accessibility or telephone costs (Fig. 12.7 on p. 168). Blij and Muller (2000: 52–54), by applying Thünen’s rings to the spread of industrial revolution (Sect. 14.1), map dynamic time-space structures of global economic and institutional development, as promoted firstly by Torsten Hägerstrand (1967). This book, actually, sees patterns as the result of a selfcreating evolutionary process.

10

1.3

1  Objectives Leading to a Vision

Definition of Key Terms

This section clarifies key terms from this book and sets out to ensure that this book’s understanding is linked to general literature on geography, global change and systems analysis. • Complexity: According to the word’s Latin root, complex systems are “entwined”, “interrelated” (BD 2014) and show a high degree of internal linkage (cf. central column in Table 10.5 on p. 125). A large number of mutually interacting and interwoven elements create a structure of the system that yields dynamics and dynamic patterns (Herbert 2006; Manduca and Mogk 2006; Haken 2006; Mobus and Kalton 2015) by spontaneous self-organisation (Raia 2005: 297). Hence, complexity is situated between disorder (chaos or entropy) and order (or negentropy); it may pertain to all the dimensions of space and time (Heylighen 1996) and is certainly distinguished from ignorance (Edmonds 1999: 72). Weaver (1948: 537) discerned two forms of complexity: disorganised and organised, thus stretching from natural to social sciences (Castellani and Hafferty 2009). System properties emerge at a higher level as the result of interactions among system components (von Bertalanffy 1968; Holland 1998) and entails the growth of functional complexity by their dynamics as well as self-reinforcing structural complexification (Heylighen 1999: 20ff). Castellani (2014) has even mapped complexity science. It is important to distinguish between the pair of concepts “organisation” and “complexity”: “people often refer to living organisms as complex. They are not complex. They are organised cells [and have] less entropy than their surroundings. A central feature of life is organisation, not complexity. Complexity actually means random and unorganised” (Trevors 2014). • Pattern recognition: While this notion might be held to pertain to informatics, machine learning, statistics and data analysis (Bishop 2006: vii), this book understands patterns as structures in space, time and even functional dynamics. It is not the mere application of algorithms with predefined categories that seems most promising for analysing global change, but the inferring of suitable categories after contemplating complexity which promises to seize the essential characteristics, as is trained mostly in history, politics and sociology. • Blossoming evolution: This term was coined by the author 25 years ago (Ahamer 1995: 22) and denotes consecutive saturising phases of evolutionary structurising within a system that additionally codevelops the system’s target through conscious reflection.

• Global dynamics: Evolutionary development of structures of global and national societies including economics, land use, resource use, social behaviour, governance, culture, institutions and their quantitative and qualitative descriptors – while perceiving all their complexities and interrelatedness (Schweiker 2008: 5). • Global change: Includes systemic changes on all levels of the global system such as climate change, social, cultural, economic and paradigmatic change (NIC 2012). • Evolutionary structure-building: As this book holds communication, relationship and other processes (Whitehead 1929) to be more fundamental than facts (Chap. 13), any structure is generated by evolution – see, for example, the history of institutional structures. Certain system states are held to be more stable than others; these could represent forms of all levels, from cellular to institutional. An early Austrian biologist and system theorist conceived them as follows: “every organic form is the expression of the flux of processes” (von Bertalanffy 1950a: 27). “We may consider, therefore, organic forms as the expression of a pattern of processes of an ordered system of forces. This point of view may be called dynamic morphology” (ibid.; cf. Sheldrake 2009a). • Self-organisation: One of the key concepts in complexity science (Jantsch 1979, 1980; von Bertalanffy 1950b; Heylighen 2009) that is even applied here to the notion of space itself (Sect. 14.4). It means that something, “if left to itself, tends to become more organised” (Shalizi 2010). “A system is self-organising if it acquires a spatial, temporal, or functional structure without specific interference from the outside” (Prokopenko 2009: 287; Haken 2006). Definitions are often applied to social systems and social learning, such as: “self-organisation is a process where the organisation (constraint, redundancy) of a system spontaneously increases, i.e. without this increase being controlled by the environment or an encompassing or otherwise external system” (Reus 2007; Heylighen 2009). • Mega-trend: Long-term data trends that persist despite fluctuations in global techno-socio-economic evolution and hat may be discerned, among other tools, by the Global Change Data Base. • Meta-trend: Structural, systemic trends in the universal system pertaining to the evolution of knowledge, the unfolding of humans on the planet and the fundamental aspects of existence and development. • Manifoldness: Very simply, the property of being many as opposed to being one. How different types of manifoldness come about (several, continuous and looped, hence autopoietic) and how these can be mapped is one of the interests of this book. Among other key suggestions, this book suggests that space is a result of manifoldness.

1.4  Guidance to the Reader

1.4

Guidance to the Reader

Practical approaches pertaining to concrete work in the four layers of the pyramid in Fig.  1.1 on p. 7 are, starting from the bottom layer: I. Practice: experimentally identify the most influential factors in a complex dynamic system and provide reasonable estimates for them (Part V, and as an introduction Part I). II. Methodology: establish a picture of the key dynamics sufficiently well to describe likely future system behaviour (Part II). III. Metatheory: provide definitions of space and time and functions in a way that they permit deep cognition, i.e. an understanding of the underlying functional and structural dynamics (Part III). IV. Philosophy: create mutual representations of reality and its categories in a way so that deep contentedness is enabled for humans (Part IV).

11

Before starting the main chapters after this introductory chapter (Part I), here is a good opportunity to deliberate how best to read this book. Figure 1.2 shows the suggestion of how to lay a dynamic path of reading into the static architecture displayed in Fig.  1.1, for the target of maximising comprehension. The eight cases described in Part II show the methodology; the metatheory is brought as five lessons in Part III and paradigmatics and conclusions in Part IV. While the text in Part II focuses more on the methodological issues (2nd lowest level in Fig. 1.2), Part V focuses more on factual and practical issues (lowest level in Fig. 1.2). If readers need support on the practical level for details of the eight case studies, they may always consult Part V while reading Part II. In any case, it might be helpful to read Part V before a suggested second reading of the main book (Parts I, II, III and IV); see the suggestion in Fig. 1.2, with the target to seize all meaning on all the levels this book offers. The area measure of the single trapezoid sections in the pyramid relates roughly to the number of pages of the respective chapters.

Fig. 1.2  Recipe for how to read this book: The pyramid of geographic science from Fig. 1.1 is enriched with the suggestion to read this book in a way that the connections on all levels of meaning become apparent; this may occur better after revisiting the chapters. At the same time, this

pyramid comes close to Maslow’s hierarchy of needs as reported in Craglia et al. (2012: 11). In the stylised arrows of this figure, “P.” means “part”. (Photo of this pyramid at Giza: Adapted after Sutcliffe (2014))

Typographically, bold face structures the text; italics highlight key ideas and main thoughts; and underlined (in all mentioned faces) marks the the most important elements on the level of the entire book.

At the end of this introduction, the author hopes to be able to say the same as the mathematician Michael Whiteman (1967: 9, 25): “Throughout this book I have tried to keep strictly to the face-to-face presuppositionless method of phenomenological analysis”. This is also the very meaning of Part III’s second-last figure (Fig. 14.12) on p. 203 at right: perspective-less vision in meta-geography, finally enabling higher jhanas (ibid.: 109; Zen 2014; Jhana8 2013; Ahamer 2014d: 177).

12

1  Objectives Leading to a Vision

de Blij, H. J., & Muller, P. O. (2000). Geography: Realms, regions and concepts. Hoboken: Wiley. Dorn, H. (1991). The geography of science. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins AAG. (2013). Association of American geographers. About University Press. the AAG.  Available at http://www.aag.org/cs/about_aag/ Edmonds, B. (1999). Syntactic measures of complexity. Thesis, about_geography_2/overview University of Manchester, Department of Philosophy. Available at Abler, R., Adams, J. S., & Gould, P. (1971). Spatial organisation. The http://cfpm.org/pub/users/bruce/thesis/all.pdf geographer’s view of the world. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall. Gebhardt, H., Glaser, R., Radtke, U., & Reuber, P. (Eds.). (2007). Agnew, J., Livingstone, D. N., & Rogers, A. (1996). Human geograGeographie: Physische Geographie und Humangeographie. phy: An essential anthology. Oxford. Cambridge: Blackwell. Heidelberg: Spektrum Akademischer Verlag. Ahamer, G. (1995). A socio-economic interface for the global carbon Geiss, I. 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Sociological plexity during evolution. In F. Heylighen, J. Bollen, & A. Riegler Theory, 7(1), 14–25. (Eds.), The evolution of complexity (pp. 17–44). Kluwer Academic Carr, D., & Chan-Fai, C. (2004). Space, time, and culture. Dordrecht/ Publishers. Available at http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/Papers/ Boston/London: Kluwer Academic Publishers. ComplexityGrowth.html Castellani, B. (2014). Brian Castellani on the complexity sciences. Blog Heylighen, F. (2009). Self-organization. In F.  Heylighen, C.  Joslyn, by Theory, Culture and Society, October 9, 2014. Available at & V.  Turchin (Eds.), Principia Cybernetica Web (Principia http://theoryculturesociety.org/brian-castellani-on-the-complexityCybernetica, Brussels). Available at http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/ sciences/ SELFORG.html Castellani, B., & Hafferty, F.  W. (2009). Sociology and complexity Holland, J.  H. (1998). Emergence: From chaos to order. Cambridge, science. A new field of inquiry (Series: Understanding Complex MA: Perseus Books. Systems). Berlin/Heidelberg: Springer. Hund, F. (1972). Geschichte der physikalischen Begriffe [History of Castells, M. (1996). The information age: Economy, society and culPhysical Notions]. B.I.-Hochschultaschenbücher, Volume 543, ture. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell. Verlag Bibliographisches Institut. Craglia, M., de Bie, K., Jackson, D., Pesaresi, M., Remetey-Fülöpp, Hüther, G. (2004). Die soziale Dimension der Hirnforschung. In S. J. G., Wang, C., Annoni, A., Bian, L., Campbell, F., Ehlers, M., van Lederhilger (Ed.), Seele, wo bist du? Frankfurt am Main & Wien Genderen, J., Goodchild, M., Guo, H., Lewis, A., Simpson, R., (pp. 130–142). Skidmore, A., & Woodgate, P. (2012). Digital Earth 2020: Towards Hüther, G. (2008a). Die biologischen Grundlagen der Spiritualität. the vision for the next decade. International Journal of Digital In G.  Hüther et  al., (2008). Damit das Denken Sinn bekommt: Earth, 5(1), 4–21. Spiritualität, Vernunft und Selbsterkenntnis. 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13 Schiemann G. (2006). Zweierlei Raum – Über die Differenz von lebensweltlichen und physikalischen Vorstellungen. In M. Ott & E. Uhl (Eds.), Denken des Raums in Zeiten der Globalisierung (pp. 124– 134). LIT Verlag: Schriftenreihe des Internationalen Zentrums für Kultur- und Technikforschung der Universität Stuttgart. Schmeikal, B. (1993). Space-time sociology. Research Memorandum Nr. 313. Vienna: Institute for Advanced Studies. Schuurman, N. (2009). Critical GIScience. In R. Kitchen & N. Thrift (Eds.), International encyclopedia of human geography (pp. 363– 368). Oxford: Elsevier. Available at http://www.sfu.ca/gis/schuurman/PDF/-19-1-1.pdf Schweiker, W. (2008). Theological ethics and global dynamics. In In the time of many worlds. London: Blackwell. Shalizi. (2010). Self-organization. Notebook. Available at http://bactra. org/notebooks/selforganization.html Sheldrake, R. (2009a). Das schöpferische Universum. Second and enlarged edition, Ullstein, Berlin. Soja, E. W. (1989). Postmodern geographies: The reassertion of space in critical social theory. London: Verso. Sutcliffe, T. (2014). The pyramids 101. EscapeArtistes. http://www. escapeartistes.com/2012/03/29/the-pyramids-101/ Trevors, J. T. (2014). Personal communication. Unwin, T. (1992). The place of geography. London: Longman. Unwin, T. (2000). A waste of space? Towards a critique of the social production of space. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, NS, 25(1), 11–29. Weaver, W. (1948). Science and complexity. American Scientist, 36(4), 536–544. Available at http://people.physics.anu.edu.au/~tas110/ Teaching/Lectures/L1/Material/WEAVER1947.pdf Wee, P. (1975). Space and time: The relationship between ontology and eschatology in the philosophical theology of Paul Tillich. Dissertation at the department for philosophy and sociology, Free University, Berlin. Werlen, B. (1987). Gesellschaft, Handlung und Raum: Grundlagen handlungstheoretischer Sozialgeographie. Erdkundliches Wissen, Heft 89, F. Steiner Verlag, Wiesbaden. Werlen, B. (1992). Society, action and space: An alternative human geography. London: Routledge. Werlen, B. (1993). Gibt es eine Geographie ohne Raum? Zum Verhältnis von traditioneller Geographie und zeitgenössischen Gesellschaften. Erdkunde: Archiv für wissenschaftliche Geographie, 47(4), 241–255. Werlen, B. (2010). Gesellschaftliche Räumlichkeit 1  – Orte der Geographie. Stuttgart: Franz Steiner Verlag. Wesson, P.  S. (2007). Space  – Time  – Matter. Modern higher-­ dimensional cosmology. New Jersey: World Scientific Publishing. Whitehead, A. N. (1929). Process and reality: An essay in cosmology. New York: Macmillan Publishing. Whiteman, M. (1967). Philosophy of space and time and the inner constitution of nature (A phenomenological study). London/New York: George Allen & Unwin Ltd./Humanities Press. Wood, D. (1992). The power of maps. New York: The Guilford Press. Zen (2014). Samadhi - die Jhana-Stufen. Germany: Dai Shin Zen Kloster. see at https://zen-kloster.de/aktuell/117

Part II Mapping in Eight Case Studies

16

II  Mapping in Eight Case Studies

This preamble to Part II helps readers to be well oriented within Part II and to perceive the structure of all eight case study descriptions before reading them. In the eight Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9, the reader will find eight selected pieces of experimental work (Table II.1) that allow one to characterise methodologically the route that leads to the proposed mapping strategy. The reader may retrieve these works in still more detail from the eight Chapters 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 and 24 (working as additional material from practice for each of the eight case studies) or from the author’s list of references. Each of these single studies and scientific projects performed during the last three decades uses another approach towards spatiality. Table II.1  Names of the eight case studies ① to ➇ of this book including most relevant citations In Part II, these following eight independent case studies will be presented: ① Cadastral survey of air emissions for the Federal Country of Salzburg ② Mineralogical and soil properties influence uptake of radioactive caesium into plants ③ Quality control of air quality monitoring sites (AQMS) in Slovakia for EU accession ④ Geographic patterns of global deforestation in the past and future ⑤ Spatial patterns of global fossil fuel demand and global biomass energy production ⑥ Global scenarios for the chain of agricultural production and consumption ⑦ Geo-referenced scenarios for water demand, supply and quality for Slovenia ⑧ Map the social procedures in the negotiation game “Surfing Global Change”

(Core citations: Ahamer …) (1989; 2001b) (2012a; et al. 1992) (2001c, 2002) (1994a; 1997c) (1996a; et al. 1998) (1995 = & Esser 1997) (2008e; & Wahliß 2008) (2004d; 2005b; 2007a; 2010b)

Moreover, these (spatial) approaches build upon one another in a methodical sense. As a general rule, in one way or the other, each mapping approach builds on the previous one. For various analyses of the conceptual sequence of these eight cases, see the generalising overviews in Chap. 10 on “mapping strategies”, starting on p. 121 (Table 10.4 to Fig. 10.5). In general, from one case to the next, more spatial, temporal and functional dependencies are taken into account, as symbolically shown by the methodological cube in Fig. 10.2 on p. 127 or the methodological landscape in Fig. 10.5 on p. 132.

For each of the eight cases enumerated above, the text of the eight Chaps. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 starts out with a description of the practical project and continues with the items in the six white boxes in Fig. II.1 for which the concept and spatial arrangement is taken from Strobl (2006).

After the end of the presentation of the case studies, Chap. 10 will develop a synopsis of the eight mapping strategies and will use the criteria of whether: • The functional space is one-dimensional or multi-dimensional • Dynamics and time dependencies are understood as deterministic or self-generated (autotelic) • No cause and effect or interrelated causal loops are cognised. In this larger context and beyond its thematic relevance in the narrow sense, each one of the eight case studies fulfils a role in the larger methodological concept of “mapping”, here called “the mapping strategies”. May the reader have as much joy when reading as was felt when writing!

II  Mapping in Eight Case Studies

17

Fig. II.1  This two-layer concept organises all eight case studies graphically. (Source: Strobl (2006: 17, 2009b) after Manfred M. Fischer, Vienna, cf. p. xxvii)

Regarding the structure of pages within Part II, all Chapters 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9 are presented in an analogous manner: ))Each case starts out with a short description of the scientific project and its methodology, referring to the specific concept of “space” applied. ))On the first page after the abstract, a figure with the graphical structure of Fig. II.1 contains text in the six white boxes (labelled in Fig. II.1 as “real-world problem”, “analysis and model”, “indicator”, “method”, “result”, “recommendation and action”) offering details on the concept applied to the case study in question; its two layers are the “empirical and operational” and the “policy and conceptual” domains of life. Thereafter, a grey box with these same items as bullet points explains the train of thought from this two-layer concept in more detailed language: • Real-world problem • Analysis and model • Indicator • Method • Result • Recommendation and action The last item sums up: “The act of mapping consists of ...”. ))The subsequent pages within each case study present characteristic figures and maps of materials and methods which illustrate the project, its results and the underlying “mapping process” in the stricter or larger sense. ))The motto of mapping in capital letters comes later in a box (a synopsis will be listed in Table 10.3 on p. 123, Sect. 10.1). Graphically, the eight cases are organised on pages as shown in Fig. II.2.

Introduction 2-layer concept Analysis; Model

Repre

Recommendation; Action

Interp

retati

senta

Indicator

tion Method

Result

Results

motto of mapping

Policy, Conceptual

Real World Problem

on Empirical, Operational

Pages for each case:

Maps & text

Methods

…

…

Fig. II.2  Regular layout structure of approximately six or more pages per case study in this Part II

…

18

References Ahamer, G. (1989). Emissionsfaktoren zur Verwendung in Emissionskatastern [Emission factors for usage in emission surveys]. Austria: Reviewed study for the Department of Environmental Protection of the Office of the Federal Government of Salzburg. 426 pages. Ahamer, G. (1994a), Auswege aus dem Treibhaus – Bewertung unterschiedlicher Strategien. Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen ‘et’. ISSN 0720-6240, Issue 4/1994, 228–236. Ahamer, G. (1995). A socio-economic interface for the global carbon cycle model ‘High Resolution Biosphere Model’. Final Report to the ESCOBA project group (= ‘European Studies on Carbon in Ocean, Biosphere and Atmosphere’ within the 3rd framework program), 32 pages. Institute for Plant Ecology, Justus-Liebig-University Giessen, Germany. Ahamer, G. (1996a). Global energy use and land use change in agriculture. In M.  F. Hofreiter & F.  Sinabell (Eds.), Macroeconomic and agricultural aspects of CO2 emission (pp. 51–66). Kiel: Wissenschaftsverlag Vauk. Ahamer, G. (1997c). Klimamodelle und Klimawandel [Climate models and climate change]. Lecture notes at Salzburg University, Institute for Geography, Summer semesters 1997 until 2001; and Institute for Chemical Technology at University of Technology Vienna 1999– 2003, 250 pages plus annexes. Ahamer, G. (2001b). A structured basket of models for global change. In C. Rautenstrauch & S. Patig (Eds.), Environmental information systems in industry and public administration (EnvIS) (pp. 101– 136). London: Idea Group Publishing, USA and Hershey. See http://www.igi-global.com/chapter/ structured-basket-models-global-change/18530 Ahamer, G. (2001c). Documentation of existing air quality measurement sites in the Slovak Republic. Report 9 in the framework of the Twinning Project SR98/IB/EN/03 on Air Quality, Bratislava, ISBN 80-88907-20-9, 250 pages, as Slovak translation “Dokumentácia existujúcich monitorovacích staníc kvality ovzdušia na Slovensku”. See http://www.shmu.sk/twinning_internal/Report9_final_ slovak.pdf. Bratislava, Oct. 01. Ahamer, G. (2002). Twinning on air quality: Comparison of results regarding the Slovak accession process. Meteorological Journal (Meteorologický Časopis), 5(1), 3–19. Bratislava. ISSN 1335-­339X.  See title in http:// www.shmu.sk/sk/?page=31&highlight=casopis and http://www.shmu.sk/File/ExtraFiles/MET_CASOPIS/ MC_5-2002_1.pdf Ahamer, G. (2004d). Negotiate your future: Web based role play. Campus-Wide Information Systems (CWIS), 21(1), 35–58. Ahamer, G. (2005b). ‘Surfing global change’: How didactic visions can be implemented. Campus-Wide Information Systems, 22(5), 298–319.

II  Mapping in Eight Case Studies Ahamer, G. (2007a). Diskurs als didaktisches Grundkonzept treibt die Konstruktion von Qualität in der Lehre voran. Zeitschrift für Hochschulentwicklung, 2(2), 62–89. http:// www.zfhe.at/ Ahamer. (2008e). Twinning mission report 1.11. In the framework of the Twinning Project SI06/IB/EN/01 “Development of financial instruments for water management based on the Water Framework Directive 2000/60EC”, Ljubljana/Slovenia. Ahamer, G. (2010b). Heuristics of social process design. In A. Lazinica (Ed.), Computational intelligence & modern heuristics. ISBN 978-953-7619-28-2, Intech, pp. 265–298. See http://www.intechweb.org/, http://www.sciyo.com/ articles/show/title/heuristics-of-social-process-design Ahamer, G. (2012a). Geo-referenceable model for the transfer of radioactive fallout from sediments to plants. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 223(5), 2511–2524. https://doi. org/10.1007/s11270-011-1044-x. Ahamer, G., & Esser, G. (1997). A scenario generator for land use changes for use in global carbon cycle models like the HRBM. Sciences Géologiques Bull, 50(1-4), 183–217. ISSN 0302-2692, Strasbourg, France. Ahamer, G., & Wahliß, W. (2008). Guidelines for establishing a baseline scenario. Strategies for the implementation of the European water framework directive. Final report on Phases 1 & 2 of the Twinning Project SI06/IB/ EN/01 “Development of financial instruments for water management based on the Water Framework Directive 2000/60EC” Ljubljana/Slovenia, May 2008. See http:// twinning.izvrs.si/ or directly at http://twinning.izvrs.si/ images/stories/pdf/guidelines_wp1_wp2_en.pdf Ahamer, G., Müller, H.-J., & Heinrich G. (1992). Wie viel radioaktives Cäsium enthalten Pflanzen und Sedimente in steirischen Gewässern? Mitteilungen des Naturwissenschaftlichen Vereines für Steiermark (Vol. 122, pp. 5–18). Listed in http://www.tugraz.at/forschung/ archiv/1-5-10-1-4.html, retrievable from http://www. landesmuseum.at/datenbanken/digilit/?litnr=28669 Ahamer, G., Hanauer, J., & Wolf, M.E. (1998). Methodik der NAMEA der Luftschadstoffe 1994 [Methodology for a NAMEA of air pollutants]. Report, Austrian Central Statistical Office ÖSTAT and Federal Environment Agency UBA, Vienna. Strobl, J. (2006). A digital Earth framework for regional autonomy in energy supply. Presented at the UN/Austria/ESA Symposium on Space Applications to Support the Plan of Implementation of the World Summit on Sustainable Development “Space Tools for Monitoring Air Pollution and Energy Use for Sustainable Development”, Graz, Austria, 12–15 September 2006, UN Office for Outer Space Affairs OOSA. http://www.oosa.unvienna.org/pdf/ sap/2006/graz/presentations/02-05.pdf Strobl, J. (2009b). A digital Earth framework for regional autonomy in energy supply. ENERegion Summer School, 01.07.2009.

2

Case Study ①: Cadastral Survey of Air Emissions for Salzburg

Abstract

• In the first of eight case studies, a simple, straightforward and solid task for “mapping” means to quantify geo-­referenced air emissions by coloured pixels on a map: this is a basic task of picturing spatially distributed facts on a paper plane. An “emission cadastre” is an example of such a classical, static regional map based on statistical data for energy consumption multiplied by emission factors. • The Federal Country of Salzburg in Austria has taken a leading role in the development of such a mapping exercise and has promoted such quantitative decision-­making support. It thus becomes possible for administrative purposes to view a country’s spatial emission patterns independent of political interests and to decide on the priorities of emission reduction measures to be taken. • This same classical mapping methodology is used at municipal, regional, national and global levels: spatial representation of environmental burdens instantly directs public policy making towards the most urgent locations for countermeasures. Such a mapping tool enhances consensus on where to act. • Such a geo-referenced tool can be used by all member cities of the “Climate Alliance” and was also included in the “Global Energy Analysis” (GEA) organised recently by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) as a main collaborative worldwide exercise. • In the context of this book, this first case study provides an initial and easy example of a static, geo-referenced map of facts as is common in cartography.

Keywords

Air emissions · Emission cadastre · Salzburg · Mapping · Environmental administration · Climate Alliance · Decision support · Environmental administration · Urban environment · Cadastral survey · Municipalities · Villach · Energy balance · Global Energy Analysis · Cartography

This first case study shows the most basic approach in geography. A classical example (and maybe historically the first case, Zirnstein 1994) of environmental protection is air quality and air emissions. The Federal Country of Salzburg was already committed, at an early stage since the 1980s, to providing a geo-referenced inventory of air emissions, mainly resulting from fuel combustion in three main source categories: traffic, households and industry. The main prerequisites for such a so-called emission cadastre are: (a) Statistical data on energy consumption (b) Information on the very complex technological circumstances of the combustion processes in industry, household, and traffic. This is moulded into aggregated coefficients, the so-called emission factors. The author has performed an extensive literature study on item (b), the emission factors (Ahamer 1989), commanded by the Federal Government of Salzburg (Mozart’s birthplace) in order to lay a basis for consistent cadastres of air emissions. • Real-world problem (Fig. 2.1, starting above left): a map of Salzburg shows the amount of air emissions per spatial unit. • Analysis and model: all technology or fuel-related drivers are parameterised by the “emission factor”; its values were identified after extensive literature review commanded by the Salzburg government. • Indicator: air emissions of the three main sectors traffic, household and industry. • Method: simply computing the sum of all sources in all modes on every single grid element. • Result: geo-referenced patterns of air emissions caused by all types of economic activities. • Recommendation and action: where to direct most effectively the government’s measures of air hygiene. The act of mapping consists of: representing reality by coloured grid elements on a map: cartography.

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019 G. Ahamer, Mapping Global Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51704-9_2

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2  Case Study ①: Cadastral Survey of Air Emissions for Salzburg

20

How much emission of which gas from which source & sector in which region of Salzburg?

Tell the local politicians: “first reduce the emissions in the most visible dark spots on the map”

Air emission = activity emission factor

(1) Traffic: km(/h) (2) Households: m² (3) Industry: GDP

Georeferencing these formulae on a 1x1km² grid

Analysis on emission factors (& cadastre)

Fig. 2.1  The two-layer concept presented in Fig. II.1 on p. 17 applied to case study ①: Cadastral survey of air emissions for Salzburg

This undertaking continues the endeavour of Emperor Joseph II of Austria (1780–1790) who commanded a complete geo-

referenced survey of “economic realities” in his empire in 1785 (Fig. 2.2 at the left) as an objective basis for taxation.

Fig. 2.2  Facsimile of the historic document founding the cadastre of Joseph II in 1785 (at the left, cited in Ahamer 1989: 8–11) which geo-­ referenced all citizens’ economic activities. Historically, this obligation for cadastres is the spark of ignition for geo-referencing any (economically) relevant fact, as does GIScience today when producing digital globes (Strobl 2008). On the right: when starting from the real situation

of life (L) and passing through the activities necessary for “mapping realities” until achieving measures (E, B, E, N), the resulting process can be symbolically read out as “life” in German language, namely “Leben” (Ahamer 1989: 356). This programmatic circle of perception, planning and action equals the two-layer approach (used for all eight case studies, e.g. Fig. II.1 on p. 17 or Fig. 2.1) in a nutshell

Since the 1970s, quantifying mapping of air emissions is one of the classical tasks of environmental science and has been regulated since then by technical norms (ÖNORM M9470 2000), national legislation (IG-L 1997) and later EU directives. How do the economic patterns of activity in a federal province result in the geographic patterns of the cadastral

map of air emissions (e.g., see Figs. 2.3 and 2.4)? In this mapping approach, “reality” (of air emissions) is considered to be the superposition of point, line and area sources. The resulting tool allows environmental policy makers to plan measures and to assess their results on emission levels; such maps may additionally use a scenario approach employing a “what-if” logic.

2  Case Study ①: Cadastral Survey of Air Emissions for Salzburg

21

Fig. 2.3  Varying detail when mapping emissions in Salzburg. Above: SO2 emissions in the City of Salzburg (left) and NOx emissions in the Federal Country of Salzburg, both mapped by a 1 × 1 km2 raster (right), illustrating the impact of reference areas (Wonka and Strobl 2009: 1f). Below: CO2 emitting sectors by districts in 1994 (far left), 1998 (left), 2002 (right) and 2006 (far right) – low geo-referencing was held suffi-

cient by technologically oriented administrative staff. Emission computations based on Ahamer (1989) and other compendia of emission factors. Sources: Federal Government of Salzburg, Gradischnik and E. Foelsche-Trummer (2009), Semikat. – Spatial distributions of SO2, NOx and CO2 emissions are characteristically different as a function of their respective main emitters

Fig. 2.4  Left: survey of different mapping approaches of existing emission cadastres in the 1980s in Austria in visibly different granularity; cited after Ahamer (1989: 12). The strategy of geo-­referencing was different in the mountaineous Austrian federal countries for apparently

topographical reasons, affecting settlement structures leading to uneven spatial distribution of emitters that mainly follow urban agglomeration patterns (on the right, from Wonka and Strobl 2009: 28), industrial sites and traffic veins

2  Case Study ①: Cadastral Survey of Air Emissions for Salzburg

22

An example of a simple detail: how does topography influence air emissions of vehicles? The answer is: by altitude and the gradient (steepness) of the road. Such “technologically known facts” are represented by simple mathematical formulae in the model (Fig. 2.5 left, two central boxes). Generally in models, rather complicated issues are technologically parameterised by one or more bulk coefficients. Cadastres of air emissions were required by Austrian national legislation for heavily polluted areas; they were regarded as one major tool for planning air quality measures (Ahamer 2000). Since the time of case study ①, cadastres’ specifications were normalised by national standards. Furthermore, the model results can serve as input for subsequent propagation calculation models. The results are maps of air hygiene which further contribute to maps of public health or even of the quality of life of citizens (Breuste et al. 2007: 508). Case study ① creates a spatial structure that might co-determine inhabitants’ choice of residence as a result of local air quality. As their ultimate goal, such simple maps direct political action by showing the most urgent reduction potential to administrators and policy makers. The “map of emissions”, in the hand of a regional policy maker, turns into a “map of options for action” when selecting those economic sectors which cause high air emission for reduction measures (Fig.  2.2 on the right : “N” for “new measure” as a feedback loop). This is exactly the deeper meaning of producing air emission cadastres as a foundation for political action. The formal notation of case study ① reads (Formula 2.1): Formula 2.1



air emission i  energy  emission factori

where: i = SO2, NOx, HC, particles, CO, CO2, etc. emission factori = EFi = (emission/energy), a function of combustion temperature, fuel, technology, etc.

Motto of mapping in case study ①: STATIC MAP OF FACTS (1 fact ➔ 1 pixel)

The mapping process in case study ① means to map one fact onto one pixel (= small squares on the emission cadastre of Fig. 2.3), namely: • The factual real-life situation of a given geo-referenced annual emission level • is mapped into a number (which necessitates a clear model of air emissions) • and this number (that might originate from a point source, line source or area source), • is geo-referenced onto a 1 km × 1 km grid of the inhabited areas of the province of Salzburg, • includes altitude and steepness as (topographic, hence geographic) explanatory variables for the amount of air emissions, as can be derived from combustion theory provided by chemical technology • and the author’s additional suggestion (Ahamer 1989: 351) was to produce an “interactive cadastre” covering the entire planning cycle (Fig. 2.2 at the right) that would allow to show maps of scenarios and political or technical assumptions or hypothesised measures and that in the meantime is open for application in a virtual globe. • In later years, the author implemented, on the one hand, such “scenario abilities” in the “energy and emission balance” for the cities of Graz (Ahamer 1997c: 136, example for result per district in Fig. 2.7 at bottom centre) and Villach (Themeßl et  al. 1995). On the other hand, he was responsible for generating the official Austrian emission balances for CO2 (Ahamer 1996) and all greenhouse gases under the Kyoto Protocol (Ahamer and Ritter 1998) for the Republic of Austria that were then officially reported in the Austrian National Communication under UNFCCC.

The author’s literature analysis has prepared norming of both calculation algorithms (Fig. 2.5) and emission factors (Fig. 2.6) for air emissions on the national level. Topographical information (altitude and steepness) describes changing partial pressure of oxygen in the cylinder resulting in changing emissions for constant motor torque.

2  Case Study ①: Cadastral Survey of Air Emissions for Salzburg

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Fig. 2.5  Left: Scheme of the computation algorithm for air emissions of vehicles (divided into categories shown on the right) as a function of various partial factors (six boxes on the left), including also the altitude

and steepness of roads, as defined by Ahamer (1989: 250f). Figure 2.6 displays numerical values for emission factors of vehicle types mentioned in the rightmost column

Fig. 2.6  Emission factors to be used in the algorithm of case study ① (Fig. 2.5 left and Formula 2.1). During 1960–1985, some emission factors for CO, NOx, HC, CO2, etc. tended to decrease in D, A, and CH for some vehicle types, meaning lower specific air emissions per kilometre

(Ahamer 1989: 255–257). This development reflected both improvements in combustion technologies (based on “endogenous technological progress”: Witt 2007) and the effect of environmental protection measures (BMUJF 1997)

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2  Case Study ①: Cadastral Survey of Air Emissions for Salzburg

The described methodological developments for the Federal Country of Salzburg have been used further: • For an energy and emission balance for Graz (Ahamer 1997b: 179f.) that has been compared to the results of the Graz emission cadastre in Fig.  2.7 (below right). This interactive tool has been developed for the municipal energy concept (KEK) and for the municipal plan for energy hygiene. Figure  2.7 shows energy and emission results on a different level of geographic resolution and quantifies the superposition of residential, industrial and traffic sources (on granularity, see Sect. 25.5.5). Here, quite statically, “1 fact is mapped into 1 pixel”.

• For an energy and emission balance for Villach (Ahamer 1999a; Themeßl et al. 1995). Figure 2.8 (above) shows the scenarios for energy and emissions of CO2, SO2, NOx, CO, HC and particles which use the projection methodology presented in case study ⑤ being further developed in case study ⑦. Clearly, the emitting sectors and fuels vary strongly from gas to gas. Figure  2.8 (above) visually demonstrates that the two major components of calculation derive from dwellings (at the left in each bar chart) and from workplaces (at the right in each bar chart).

Fig. 2.7  The algorithm of case study ① (Fig. 2.5) is refined to be used for any city, based on statistical data for dwellings, workplaces and traffic (above left). For the municipal energy concept (KEK) of Graz, energy demand (above right) and emissions (below left) were computed by sectors and fuels (Ahamer 1997b: 176). Below centre: coarse geo-­

referencing to the 17 municipal districts shows highest energy demand from workplaces in the central and industrial districts (01, 04, 05, 06) (Ahamer 1997b: 136). Below right: results of the CO2 emission cadastre (StmkLR 1989) were compared to this method (Ahamer 1997b: 179f)

2  Case Study ①: Cadastral Survey of Air Emissions for Salzburg

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Fig. 2.8  Application of case study ① to a scenario of final energy, useful energy, CO2, SO2, NOx, CO, HC and particles for 2020 for the City of Villach (above, source: Ahamer 1999a) as a function of sectors and fuels for Villach. Scenario generation as described in case study ⑤. For each of the eight tables, the relative contribution of sectors and fuels shows distinct patterns described by the emission factors (Ahamer

1989). The lower geographic resolution is kept, and the higher resolution relating to other (e.g. technological) disciplines is achievable. Below: Villach municipal area grew from 1961 to 2001 (left), highlighting difficulties of geo-referencing to administrative areas instead of grid cells (right). Population density (Wonka and Strobl 2009: 5) compares to Fig. 2.4 on the right

The approach for case study ① was not only applied to Salzburg, Graz and Villach, as described above, but was additionally published by the Austrian Federal Environment Agency (Chap. 17; Ahamer 1997b) as recommendation for any municipality, especially for the members of the Climate Alliance. The publishing house WEKA issued a handbook for professionals on sustainable municipal planning containing the above recommendations (Ahamer 2000). The question of a suitable granularity of geo-referencing (Ahamer 2014) was discussed within the Salzburg administration and the Austrian federal workgroup on emission cadastres (Ahamer 1996) and showed the inclination of non-

geographers (but more technologically minded persons) to prefer low geo-resolution allowing for high thematic resolution instead of high georesolution (examples pictured in Figs. 2.3, 2.4, 2.7 and 2.8). The author contributed to the urbanisation chapter of the Global Energy Analysis (GEA 2010; analogous to the IPCC endeavour) undertaken by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). This international project has developed a manner of mapping energy issues combining population density, economic level and energy consumption (Fig.  2.9) and uses two-dimensional legends combining two out of the three mentioned parameters.

Fig. 2.9  Methods for mapping energy issues used in the Global Energy Analysis (GEA 2010) initiated and performed by IIASA

Summing up, the methodology of case study ① is, in principle, open to GIS that has enormously developed since those years (Antenucci et  al. 1991; Fischer and Nijkamp 1992; Longley et  al. 2005). Given the availability of geo-­

referenced data for Austria, it can be applied down to the level of census units or even single buildings and can produce a very fine portrait of energy demand and the resulting emissions, including their driving forces.

26

References

2  Case Study ①: Cadastral Survey of Air Emissions for Salzburg

Breuste, J., Endlicher, J., & Meurer, M. (2007). Stadtökologie. In H. Gebhardt, R. Glaser, U. Radtke, & P. Reuber (Eds.), Geographie – Physische Geographie und Humangeographie (pp.  507–513). Ahamer, G. (1989). Emissionsfaktoren zur Verwendung in Munich: Elsevier. Emissionskatastern [Emission factors for usage in emission surFischer, M. M., & Nijkamp, P. (1992). Geographic information systems veys]. Austria: Reviewed study for the Department of Environmental and spatial analysis. Annals of Regional Science, 26(1), 3–17. Protection of the Office of the Federal Government of Salzburg. 426 Foelsche-Trummer, E. (2009). Semikat. Der Salzburger Energie- und pages. Emissionskataster (SEMIKAT) [Emission cadastre for Salzburg, Ahamer, G. (1996). CO2-Emissionen 1994 und 1995. UBA-Info variable years]. Methodology developed at the Government of September 1996, S. 2-4 (= official publication of the Austrian Salzburg, Office for Environmental Protection, Head: Othmar Federal Environment Agency UBA), also presentation at UBA on Glaeser. Available at http://www.salzburg.gv.at/themen/nuw/ 14. 8. 1996 and in the Federal Workshop on emission cadastres, umwelt/luftreinhaltung/semikat.htm Office of the Federal Government of Salzburg on 6. 11. 1996. GEA. (2010). Global energy assessment. Laxenburg: Coordinated by Ahamer, G. (1997b). Energie- und Emissionsbilanzierung für the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA. Österreichs Städte  – Fallstudie für Graz (Monographies, Volume http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/ENE/GEA/ M-084). Vienna: Federal Envioronment Agency. ISBN 3-85457-­ IG-L. (1997). Immissionsschutzgesetz  – Luft. Austrian Federal Law 338-3. Available at http://www.umweltbundesamt.at/fileadmin/site/ Gazette I 115/1997, as amended by I 34/2006. publikationen/M084.pdf Longley, P.  A., Goodchild, M.  F., Maguire, D.  J., & Rhind, D.  W. Ahamer, G. (1997c). Klimamodelle und Klimawandel [Climate models (2005). Geographic Information Systems and Science  – GIS. and climate change]. Lecture notes at Salzburg University, Institute New York: Wiley. for Geography, Summer semesters 1997 until 2001; and Institute for ÖNORM M9470. (2000). Emissionskataster luftverunreinigender Chemical Technology at University of Technology Vienna 1999– Stoffe. Österreichisches Normungsinstitut [Austrian Standards 2003, 250 pages plus annexes. Institute] (Ed.), 21 pages, Vienna. Available via https://shop.ausAhamer, G. (1999a). Energy and emission balance for the city of trian-standards.at/search/Details.action?dokkey=77246 Villach. Technical report to the Arbeitsgemeinschaft Erneuerbare StmkLR. (1989, November). Emissionskataster der Landeshauptstadt Energie Villach, Graz. Graz. Amt der Steiermärkischen Landesregierung, Fachabteilung Ahamer, G. (2000). Luftqualität und Klima [Air quality and climate]. In Ia, Graz. H. Hoffmann (Ed.), The handbook “Nachhaltige Gemeindeplanung Strobl, J. (2008). Digital Earth brainware. A framework for education [Sustainable municipal planning]”. Vienna: WEKA-Verlag. ISBN and qualification requirements. In J. Schiewe & U. Michel (Eds.), 3-7018-4640-2. Geoinformatics paves the highway to digital Earth (pp. 134–138). Ahamer, G. (2014). Forward looking needs systematised megatrends Osnabrück: Universität Osnabrück. in suitable granularity. Campus-Wide Information Systems, 31(2/3), Themeßl, A., Reiter, H., & Kogler, R. (1995). Erneuerbare Energie für 81–199. https://doi.org/10.1108/CWIS-09-2013-0044. die Stadt Villach. Arbeitsgemeinschaft Erneuerbare Energie (AEE) Ahamer, G. & Ritter, M. (1998). Austrian IPCC air emission invenGmbH, Gleisdorf/Villach. ISBN 3-901425-03-9. tory 1980–1996. Report under the United Nations Framework Witt, U. (2007). Innovation & growth = Progress? The normative impliConvention on Climate Change UNFCCC, Federal Environment cations of evolutionary economics. Lecture at the Graz Schumpeter Agency Vienna (UBA) and Federal Ministry of Environment, Youth Summer School 2007. http://www.unigraz.at/schumpeter.centre/ and Family. Official communication of Austria under the UN framesummerschool.php work convention on climate change, as of April 1998 (short version). Wonka, E. & Strobl, J.  (Ed.) (2009). Regionalstatistik in Antenucci, J., Brown, K., Crosswell, P., et al. (1991). Geographic inforÖsterreich auf der räumlichen Bezugsbasis von regionalstatismation systems – A guide to the technology. New York: Chapman tischen Rastereinheiten. 2. Auflage, Institut for Geographic & Hall. Information Science, Austrian Academy of Sciences and Statistik BMUJF. (1997). Second Austrian national climate report. Vienna: Austria. Available from www.oeaw-giscience.org/download/ Published by the Austrian Ministry for Environment, Health and RasterStatistikWonka2A.pdf family Affairs under UNFCCC. Zirnstein, G. (1994). Ökologie und Umwelt in der Geschichte. Marburg: Metropolis-Verlag.

3

Case Study ②: Mineralogical and Soil Properties Influence Cs Uptake

Abstract

Keywords

• After the Chernobyl accident, samples of soil, sediment and vegetation were measured in the Austrian Alps for their radioactivity, mostly radioactive caesium. The “transfer factor” is the quotient of radioactivity in plants and soil. It was computed for the hundreds of samples from 25 sites, including over 40 different plant species. To characterise all sampling locations of very diverse types, their mineralogical, biospheric, geographical and soil-­related parameters were measured by several methods of spectroscopy and soil chemistry in this multi-year case study, thus providing almost 50 describing parameters for modelling radioactivity transfer from soil to plants. • Following future nuclear incidents, a quick assessment tool will be needed to estimate the amount of radioactive fallout (mostly Cs-137 and Cs-134) likely to be transferred into plants, hence potentially into human nutrition. Therefore, knowledge about the main influences on the caesium transfer factor is required: which subset of the measured environmental parameters can describe most concisely the transfer procedure from soil to plants? • Extensive correlation and modelling exercises led to a “functional map” of the main impact factors prevailing in the transfer of radioactive caesium that graphically shows the strongest correlations among parameters describing the environmental system. The term “functional map” is proposed here for graphical plots that map the main functional relationships in a system that shows multiple interrelations. • For the stepwise development of mapping strategies in this book, this second case study is important because it gives a first and easy example of a “functional map” that allows switching between the space of locations or geo-­space and the “space of relations”, also called “functional space” in this book.

Chernobyl · Environmental radioactivity · Fallout · Radioactive caesium · Cs-137 · Cs-134 · K-40 · Gamma spectroscopy · Transfer factor · Multiple correlations · Regressions · Principal component analysis · Radioactive deposition · Aquatic vegetation · Soil-plant transfer · Particle size distribution · Atomic absorption spectrometry · Organic content · Heat loss · Mineralogy · X-ray diffractometry · Montmorillonite · Muscovite · Austrian Alps · Salzkammergut · Liezen · Altitude dependency · Weathering stage · Clay minerals · Caesium adsorption · Caesium resorption · Functional landscape · Functional interdependence · Functional map · Ecological system · Sediments · Clay fraction · Soil depth profile · Cs quotient · Caesium transfer

Case study ➁ was performed as traditional geographical field work (see Gebhardt et  al. 2007: 102) and shows how mineralogical and soil properties influence radioactivity uptake into plants after a nuclear accident (Fig. 3.1). After the disastrous nuclear power plant accident in Chernobyl in April 1986, considerable amounts of radioactivity (mainly the caesium isotopes 137 and 134) were transferred across the higher atmosphere and also displaced into Austria (Fig.  3.2), which received on its soils the highest deposition in continental “Western” Europe at that time (Fig. 3.3 top right). Consequently, radioactivity reached the food chain, mainly by (then insufficiently known) mechanisms of Cs transfer from soil into plants (scheme in Fig. 3.3 top left). In order to assess the involved danger to humans, the concept of the transfer factor (TF = Cs in plant/Cs in soil) was widely applied under the assumption that a single transfer process could suitably describe the complex procedures of contamination and uptake (logical flow model in Fig. 3.3 top centre).

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019 G. Ahamer, Mapping Global Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51704-9_3

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3  Case Study ②: Mineralogical and Soil Properties Influence Cs Uptake

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Which mineralogical & soil properties enhance Chernobyl Cs transfer from sediments to plants?

Sampling & measuring sediments & plants, correlation analyses

List of over 30 parameters specifying each site’s soil & mineralogy

Use clay minerals to bind Cs, do not take food from acid or organic soils

Multiple correlation and regression

Geographic altitude, but only masking parameter

Fig. 3.1  Two-layer concept applied to case study ②: Mineralogical and soil properties influence uptake of radioactive caesium

In this practical project carried out over a period of three years, the author collected and measured samples from several dozens of locations (see Fig. 3.3 below left) while taking into account a wide variety of biotopes (see Fig. 3.4), soil types and plant species (Fig. 3.5). All samples were measured (see Fig. 3.6) for their radioactivity (Cs-134, Cs-137, K-40; by gamma spectroscopy), organic content (by heat loss), clay minerals (X-ray diffractometry), particle size distribution (centrifuges) and content of stable K and Cs (atomic absorption spectrometry). Statistical methods such as principal component analysis, regressions and multiple correlations between all these measured descriptive parameters (Fig. 3.7) helped to heuristically establish a quantitative model for the transfer factor (TF). Thus, geospatial variability was described by clusters of quantitative variables pertaining to different sciences.

• Real-world problem (Fig. 3.1): what determines the transfer of Chernobyl fallout from soil to plant? • Analysis and model: firstly describe this entire process of soil-plant transfer by one bulk “transfer factor” (TF) which is the quotient (Cs in plant/Cs in soil), but secondly understand what influences this TF. • Indicator: over 20 indicators are measured experimentally to quantify influences on TF. • Method: correlation and regression tools taken from Statgraph, an earlier common user program. • Result: a “landscape” of functional interactions, where lines mean strong correlations (Fig. 3.11). • Recommendation and action: avoid circumstances correlated positively to TF, and search negatively correlated circumstances, recommendations relating to soil types, harvesting and nutritional behaviour. The act of mapping consists of: comparing and correlating many data patterns (= “functional maps”) containing the driving factors of the assessed parameter (TF) and inferring general laws for TF.

Fig. 3.2  Meteorological modelling of the transport paths of radioactive air packages after the Chernobyl accident; meteorological modelling by Kolb et al. (1986); see UBA (1986: 8–9). Basic formulae of atmospheric modelling are described in (Ahamer 1997: 202f)

3  Case Study ②: Mineralogical and Soil Properties Influence Cs Uptake

Fig. 3.3  Above left: pathway of radioactive caesium from fallout via sediment and soil solution into (aquatic) plants (Ahamer 1991). Above centre: the 3-year work plan comprised of measurements, computation, statistics as well as geo-referenced interpretation. Above right: map of caesium contamination in Austria after the Chernobyl accident (UBA

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1986). Below left: location of sampling sites in Styria, Austria; the measured depositions of radioactive fallout exhibit a strong dependence on the altitude in three instances (below right, Ahamer et al. 1992: 6–8). This altitude dependency was corroborated by UBA (1986: iv, 60) for the Rax mountains

Fig. 3.4  Typical sampling locations in the Alps for measuring geographical, radiological, mineralogical, soil and plant parameters and subsequent calculations of the transfer factor (TF) of Cs from soil to plant (Ahamer 1991); see more in Fig. 18.25 on p. 274

Fig. 3.5  A selection from the hundreds of plant samples from over 40 species used for calculating the Cs transfer factor. (Images: Thommen 1973)

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3  Case Study ②: Mineralogical and Soil Properties Influence Cs Uptake

Fig. 3.6  A series of measurement techniques performed for all soil and plant samples, starting from above left: the typical Marinelli beaker used for gamma spectroscopy, acid soil extracts for measurement by atomic absorption spectroscopy, dried soil fraction for X-ray diffrac-

tometry of clay minerals, probes for heat loss quantifying organic soil content, spectrometer monitor, X-ray diffractometer bench, ultracentrifuge for fractionising and fractions of defined particle sizes. (Source: Ahamer 1991)

Fig. 3.7  Mineralogical measurement results performed for all sites include cumulative distributions of particle size, discerning classes of particle size leading to results in Fig. 3.12, gamma peak intensities for

Cs-134, Cs-137 and K-40, and X-ray diffractometry peaks identifying the weathering stage of clay minerals, yielding the results in Fig. 3.8 on the left. (Source: Ahamer 1991)

The general research question for this case study is: how are environmental impacts processed by the biosphere? How can the ecological and space-related complexity be reduced to a set of defined variables measured experimentally? The method of choice here is establishing a set of correlations between space-related descriptors, the strength of which describes the structure of functionalities, especially regarding content of clay minerals, particle size, organic content and pH value (Ahamer et al. 1989). The object of mapping here is not “facts” but “functional structures” (Fig.  3.11). After understanding the functional tissue, the population can manage their diet accordingly.

variables to a degree of validity sufficient for the scientific needs, namely, for establishing a quantitative heuristic model of caesium transfer from soil to plants in case of emergency (Ahamer 2012a). Such a simple model would allow quick and easy measurement in case of an emergency (such a formula is proposed later in Fig. 3.10).

The initial practical objective of this case study was to determine which parameters have to be measured after contamination in order to allow for a quick and precise prediction of the radioactive burden in plants in emergency. The scientific goal of this case study led to characterising functionalities of space by a reduced set of geo-referenced

After performing the measurements, illustrated by the above figures, a first heuristic approach consisted in a list of explaining parameters (Fig.  3.8 left) ranked according to their correlation strength (r2; see Ahamer and Müller 1988). Interpretation (using principal component analysis) shows that phenomenologically appearing parameters are just “masking” underlying parameters that more precisely describe concrete biospheric procedures acting authentically as driving forces for the Cs transfer. Parameters ranked near the top of the list in Fig.  3.8 on the left often reflect causal relationships that are more stringently described by other descriptors highly correlating with them. The best

3  Case Study ②: Mineralogical and Soil Properties Influence Cs Uptake

example is “geographical altitude” masking (i) Cs deposition (Fig.  3.8 centre, reflecting saturation effects in plant nutrition), (ii) heat loss (i.e. organic content of sediment) and (iii) clay mineral content with a particle size relevant for plant

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nutrition (Fig. 3.8 right, showing that adsorption of Cs and K varies significantly with particle size, corroborating the strong role of the smallest-sized minerals in Cs adsorption and desorption dynamics).

Fig. 3.8  Simple model for Cs transfer: On the left: ranking of the most significant correlations, centre: regression of TF on the Cs-137 content (Ahamer 2012a), on the right: distribution of radionuclide adsorption. Interpretation: see text above

Methodologically speaking and contemplating the “functional landscape” of Fig. 3.11, each single interconnection of descriptive parameters is understood as a “function”. In contrast to case study ①, case study ② concentrates no longer on facts as objects of cognition but on functions as objects of cognition. This is one of the main messages of this chapter.

Motto of mapping in case study ②: STATIC MAP OF FUNCTIONS (1 function ➔ 1 arrow) The consecutive phases of reasoning and modelling (see project plan in Fig. 3.3 above centre) from simple to detailed models are condensed into Fig. 3.11 which shows one larger circle for each one of four larger scientific disciplines: geography and fallout, mineralogy, soil parameters and plant parameters. Because at least each one of these larger fields is likely to vary independently in variform reality, the aim for the heuristic model is to use at least one parameter from each larger circle representing a larger discipline.

Case study ② takes interdisciplinary cooperation seriously. Experimental work was performed at institutes with the following specialties (some of them at Graz University of Technology): • Theoretical physics and reactor physics (gamma spectroscopy) • Plant physiology (specification of plant species, ecology) • Mineralogy and technical geology (soil particle distribution, X-ray spectroscopy for mineralogy, soil science) • Microchemistry and radiochemistry (atomic emission spectroscopy) • Statistics and automated data processing (regressions, correlations, principal component analysis) • Austrian Research Institute Seibersdorf (literature research, including original literature in Russian and Ukrainian languages) • Bavarian State Research Institute for Water Research • Society for Radiation Research (gsf) in Neuherberg near Munich (radioactivity migration in soils).

3  Case Study ②: Mineralogical and Soil Properties Influence Cs Uptake

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Compared to common concepts after Chernobyl, this case study has attempted to divide the entire procedure of transfer from fallout via soil to plant into two or three phases (denoted by the boxes on top of Fig. 3.11), namely: • First phase: the interception (including retention during the first year after the accident) of radioactivity by the sediments (Fig. 3.11 above left and Fig. 3.3 below right) is sufficiently well described by: (α) One geographic parameter: grass contamination, the most widely measured metric for fallout (β) One mineralogical parameter: muscovite, having very strong adhesive capabilities for Cs (γ) One soil parameter: inversely correlated with heat loss, denoting soil organic content with very low adhesive potential for Cs. • Second phase: the transfer of Cs from soil to plant may also be suitably described by three descriptors: (δ) One geographic parameter: Cs-137 content from the sediment itself, denoting saturation effects (ε) One mineralogical parameter: montmorillonite, ­having very low adhesive capabilities for Cs

Fig. 3.9  Detailed model for Cs transfer: the six strongest correlations (compare Fig. 3.8 left) describe best the entire transfer process of caesium first from precipitation to soil (Cs resorption; see the three figures on the left) and subsequently to plants (Cs transfer; see the three figures

137Cs and 134Cs resorb.

(α) (γ) (β)

=

= (fallout [map value])1.8 × (weight loss [%])0.8 × exp (0.1 × muscovite [%])

(ζ) One plant parameter: the transfer factor for K-40 which serves as aggregate inclination of the plant species to absorb Cs. Both Cs fallout as such and the Cs transfer factor show clear dependence on the parameter “altitude”. Multivariate statistical analysis reveals that “altitude” appears in this case as an aggregate parameter just masking a set of deeper mineralogical reasons, such as the specific particle distribution by clay minerals for variation in spatial patterns of Cs transfer from soil to plants. The lower a sampling site was situated, (i) the lower prevalent contamination was, (ii) the more likely swamps or moors occurred and (iii) the more weathered clay minerals were washed down. In this sense, items (i), (ii) and (iii) from Fig.  3.8 on the left (“simple model”) reflect the items (α) to (ζ) from the above-mentioned list. As a result, and by means of correlation analyses (Fig. 3.9 and long arrows in Fig. 3.11), it is possible to describe most of the variation of (1) Cs interception and (2) Cs transfer by a simple heuristic formula (Fig. 3.10) containing mostly easily measurable parameters (details in Chap. 18). This was the plan for case study ②.

on the right). (Source: (Ahamer and Müller 1993: 108f). Still, the amount of variation is very high due to the decision to incorporate a wide variety of locations and plants: reality is given preference to “clean” formulae)

transfer factors TF(137Cs) = = (Cs activity in sediment)-0.5 × (montmorillonite [%])-0.2 × (TF for 40K)

(δ) (ε) (ζ)

Fig. 3.10  Detailed model for Cs transfer: this heuristic formula selects the most significant explanatory variables as results of the correlations in Fig. 3.9 which are also represented by Greek letters and lines in Fig. 3.11. (Source: Ahamer 2012a)

3  Case Study ②: Mineralogical and Soil Properties Influence Cs Uptake

Cs resorption in sediment

Fall-out

(α) (β) altitude +0.44

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Cs in soil solution

(γ)

(δ)

(ε)

Cs uptake in plants (ζ)

blooming season

catchment area +0.68

+0.29

altitude

GEOGRAPHY FALL-OUT −0.63 air activity

+0.34

+0.50 grass activity UBA +0.83 +0.49 +0.32 +0.37 Cs-137 in soil, grass activity hay activity 0–5 cm Env. Report +0.45 +0.57 SEDIMENT Cs-134 in sedim. Cs137/Cs134 +0.60

Cs-137 in soil, 5–10 cm

Food chain

+0.32 0.5µm fraction in sediment

nitrogen +0.63

plant society −0.76

light

moistness

−0.40

Mineralogy

+0.31

reaction number UPTAKE

share of dry weight

2µm fraction in sediment

weight loss after heating

PARTICLE SIZE CLAY MINERALS

montmorillonite

kaolinite

muscovite/mica +0.74

−0.45 total potassium K

+0.74

−0.73

+0.45

AF=TF(Cs)/ TF(K)

TF(K)

+0.69 +0.63 sum of clay minerals +0.83

GROWTH LOCATION continentality

temperature +0.56

+0.44

Cs-137 in sedim. +0.85 Cs137/K40

Geography, fallout

germing season

chlorite

amorphous plagioclase −0.51 share +0.67 −0.54 quartz dolomite

+0.73 MIN.

Fig. 3.11  “Functional map”: Plot of functional interdependencies between several dozens of experimentally measured parameters from four scientific disciplines (geography, mineralogy, soil science, plant physiology) explaining Cs transfer from soil to plants (Ahamer and

+0.44

−0.75

−0.63

total K in soil sample

+0.94

specif. weight of sediment DENSITY Cs & K

Plant parameters

extracted stable caesium +0.45 extracted potassium K −0.37

pH

pH value

Soil parameters Müller 1993: 106). Methodologically, each oval represents a state vector in the state space. Dashed short lines mean negative correlation and full lines positive correlation. Short lines are labelled by r values and long lines by bracketed Greek letters linking to Figs. 3.9 and 3.10

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3  Case Study ②: Mineralogical and Soil Properties Influence Cs Uptake

As a first additional result, it was possible to show that the contents of muscovite and montmorillonite are correlated with different particle sizes of the sediment (see Fig.  3.12 below), in line with what the weathering process of clay mineral suggests (Fig. 3.12 below right). Muscovite at the start of the weathering chain exhibits a larger particle size than montmorillonite at its end  – this is why montmorillonite accumulates more frequently in the smallest fractions (full line) as compared to muscovite (dashed line).

Additionally, muscovite at the start of the weathering chain exhibits a smaller interlayer distance (Fig. 3.12 below left) and consecutively stronger binding forces for nutrient ions (and by chance also for Cs ions that are bound almost irreversibly) than montmorillonite which only loosely binds nutrient ions (and also Cs ions that are easily exchangeable and easily available for plant nutrition).

Fig. 3.12  Mineralogical explanation of the findings: muscovite binds Cs strongly; montmorillonite binds Cs weakly, both as a function of the interlayer distance in these silicates (above left, for montmorillonite; muscovite has a larger interlayer distance). Kaolinite and chlorite are

not active in terms of cation exchange (above right: weathering chain). Consistent with these findings, muscovite accumulates in larger fractions, whereas montmorillonite accumulates in the smallest fraction (below, Ahamer 1991).

3  Case Study ②: Mineralogical and Soil Properties Influence Cs Uptake

As a second additional result, the profile of radioactivity decrease along depth of adjacent soil samples was thoroughly analysed. In unploughed soils, this is a function of the sorption/desorption equilibrium. Figure 3.13 on the left shows one typical example: Cs-137 and Cs-134 concentrations fall by a factor of 50 from the layer 0–5cm to the layer 10–15cm (its statistics in Fig.  3.13 centre below), whereas concentrations of the naturally occurring K-40 remain constant. A closer look reveals that Cs-134 falls more than

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Cs-137 does; in other words, the quotient of both isotopes is not constant (Fig.  3.13 centre below). Taking into account the unequal half-life period of both isotopes allows to compute the “age” of fallout, namely, its origin from either Chernobyl in 1986 or else from global bomb tests in preceding years. Consequently, maps of inferred atomic bomb fallout can be constructed (Fig.  3.13 right and Sect. 18.4 on p. 263).

Fig. 3.13  In soil depth profiles (left), the quotient of Cs137/Cs134 (centre, Ahamer 1991; Ahamer et al. 1992: 9–11) serves as a key to discern two sources of fallout: from Chernobyl and the remainder from global atomic bomb tests (right, UBA 1986)

Back to the methodology of case study ②: what became clear when studying the multitude of potential correlations (e.g. Fig.  3.9) is the following: it may well occur that the parameter in question (here, TF) itself does not show very clear correlations, but the “driving parameters” behind the gross and aggregate effect do. Such (often masked) driving parameters can show clearer correlations and they can also provide a clearer scientific explanation and argumentation. Such a very general finding will be applied to global scenarios later in case studies ⑥ and ⑦. Another finding of general bearing: already in case study ②, we may find an aspect of wider significance: one of the highest correlations of the quotient TF is with its denominator, the Cs content itself (number 3 in Fig. 3.8 left, Fig. 3.8 centre or Fig. 3.9δ). One could argue: what a mathematical artefact! The statistical variation of “Cs in soil” is of course propagated into a quotient containing this magnitude as denominator. But on the other hand, this mentioned strong correlation undermines completely the working hypothesis made at the outset, namely, that stable and reliable functional relationships would act between the main entities, reflected by constant coefficients (“natural laws”). When

viewing the relevant correlation (Fig. 3.8 centre), we have to adopt the following view: for a certain zone of values assumed by the variable “Cs content in sediments”, we might assume a constant transfer factor, but when leaving this “zone of suitability of assumption”, the notion of a “computable process” loses its meaning. Such reasoning may deepen our u­ nderstanding of the applicability of models outside the range for which these models’ terms have been coined. Biologically, it is well understandable that a plant will not absorb an identical percentage of nutrients, the concentration of which fluctuates across three orders of magnitude. In brief, the concept of a (constant) coefficient TF (Atun and Kilislioglu 2003) will be later replaced by the concept of interlinked procedures that tend to reach saturation at a given point. The great variability of the (no longer “natural constant”) TF on almost all other parameters (Fig. 3.9) is typical (a) for living systems and (b) for the decision of the author to describe reality as it is and not by artificially defined experimental settings such as in lysimeters (Boikat et al. 1985) that might well deliver “beautiful, clean formulae”.

3  Case Study ②: Mineralogical and Soil Properties Influence Cs Uptake

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Inside this heuristic model (Fig.  3.14), the describing parameters are correlated among themselves as depicted by the short lines in Fig. 3.11 (dashed means negative correlation; r is written near all lines). Such deliberations lead the

researcher to not only (mentally) “live” in the world of facts (= measurement value) but – more easily – in the world of correlations (these quite possibly represent functional interconnections).

fallout soil science

mineralogy, geology

topography

transfer of Caesium

plant physiology

Fig. 3.14  General set-up of case study ② investigating caesium transfer from soils to plants (Ahamer and Müller 1993: 102) as seen through the lenses of different scientific specialties (left, Ahamer 2012a). Methodologically, this case map “functions” (right and Fig. 3.11) into a consistent view of reality (= “model”), which additionally is geo-­

referenceable (Ahamer et  al. 1992: 16). The geographic concept “proximity entailing similarity” (Waldo Tobler’s First Law Geography on spatial autocorrelation; see Longley et  al. 2005) applied here in case study ② to “functional space” and no longer “geodetic space” as in case study ①

Therefore, the viewpoint will be developed (during later cases) that beyond the real physical landscape, there is a “landscape of descriptors” describing the functional structure of reality. Summing up, in case study ②, reality is mapped as landscape of state vectors in state space.

Ahamer, G., Müller, H.-J., Oswald, K., Heinrich, G., Kolmer, H., Klima, K., & Pacher, F. (1989). The uptake of radioactive caesium into the aquatic vegetation of Styria/Austria. Proceedings of the XIX. International meeting of the European society of nuclear methods in agriculture (ESNA), 29. August to 2. September 1988, ed. by the Austrian Research Centre Seibersdorf, report OEFZS-­4489, LA-210/89, February 1989, pp. 157–181. Ahamer, G., Müller, H.-J., & Heinrich G. (1992). Wie viel radioaktives Cäsium enthalten Pflanzen und Sedimente in steirischen Gewässern? Mitteilungen des Naturwissenschaftlichen Vereines für Steiermark (Vol. 122, pp. 5–18). Retrievable from http://www. landesmuseum.at/datenbanken/digilit/?litnr=28669 Atun, G., & Kilislioglu, A. (2003). Adsorption behavior of cesium on montmorillonite-type clay in the presence of potassium ions. Journal of Radioanalytical and Nuclear Chemistry, 258(3), 605–611. Boikat, U., et  al. (1985). Caesium and cobalt transfer from soil to vegetation on permanent pastures. Radiation and Environmental Biophysics, 24, 287–301. Gebhardt, H., Glaser, R., Radtke, U., & Reuber, P. (Eds.). (2007). Geographie: Physische Geographie und Humangeographie. Heidelberg: Spektrum Akademischer Verlag. Kolb, H. et  al. (1986). Diskussion meteorologischer Aspekte der radioaktiven Belastung in Österreich durch den Reaktorunfall in Tschernobyl. Arbeiten aus der Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Heft 69. Longley, P.  A., Goodchild, M.  F., Maguire, D.  J., & Rhind, D.  W. (2005). Geographic Information Systems and Science  – GIS. New York: Wiley. Thommen, E. (1973). Taschenatlas der Schweizer Flora. Mit Berücksichtigung der ausländischen Nachbarschaft. 5. Auflage. Basel: Birkhäuser Verlag. UBA. (1986). Tschernobyl und die Folgen für Österreich. Vorläufiger Bericht, Wien, 11/1986, Monographien, Band 001. ISBN: 3-85457-­ 061-9. Available at http://www.umweltbundesamt.at/fileadmin/site/ publikationen/M001.pdf

References Ahamer, G. (1991). Die Aufnahme von radioaktivem Cäsium in die Teichvegetation der Steiermark – Messungen und Modellerstellung [Uptake of radio-active caesium into the aquatic vegetation of Styria, Austria  – measurements and model building], 280 pages, draft report for the Reactor Institute Graz, Austria. Ahamer, G. (1997). Klimamodelle und Klimawandel [Climate models and climate change]. Lecture notes at Salzburg University, Institute for Geography, Summer semesters 1997 until 2001; and Institute for Chemical Technology at University of Technology Vienna 1999– 2003, 250 pages plus annexes. Ahamer, G. (2012a). Geo-referenceable model for the transfer of radioactive fallout from sediments to plants. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 223(5), 2511–2524. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11270-0111044-x Springer International (impact factor 1.743 in 2010). Ahamer, G. & Müller, H.-J. (1988). Caesium-137 uptake in aquatic vegetation. Poster at the XIX. International meeting of the European society of nuclear methods in agriculture (ESNA), 29.8.-2.9.1988, Vienna, p. 35. Ahamer, G., & Müller, H.-J. (1993). Überlegungen für ein Modell zum Verhalten von radioaktivem Cäsium in der Teichvegetation. In Report of the reactor institute Graz (Vol. RIG-21, pp.  101– 114). Graz: Institute for Theoretical Physics of the Technological University Graz.

of of is to

4

Case Study ③: Geo-localising of Air Quality Monitoring Sites

Abstract

• In the framework of the accession of Central European states to the European Union, the Slovak Republic has strengthened its air quality-related institutions and adapted its national legislation to the EU acquis communautaire. For that target, the author has acted as Pre-­ Accession Adviser in a so-called EU Twinning project that had to promote and achieve this transition in a collaborative manner. One task out of many was to assess if the locations of air quality monitoring stations (AQMS) were chosen in a geographically suitable manner in order to provide valid data capable of describing the air quality of an entire air quality management zone. • The meteorological situation (topography, frequency distribution of wind speed, etc.) and the structure of industrial, household or traffic polluters in an entire zone had to be analysed to define an appropriate selection of measurement sites that are able to provide reliable characterisation of expectable future air quality. The EU legislation defines that after exceeding welldefined threshold values for the concentration of several pollutants, decisive policy measures have to be taken on the basis of concrete plans. • The entirety of meteorological data and personal visits in all regions showed that most AQMS were suitably sited but some had to be repositioned to fully comply with EU standards. • The resulting project report by the author fulfilled the reporting obligations of the Slovak Republic to the European Commission as required by the European Air Quality Framework Directive in force. • In this third case study, mapping means to reduce and condense spatial complexity by selecting a subset of typical locations.

Keywords

European Union · Accession to the EU · Approximation to EU · Transition of legal systems · Twinning project ·

Copenhagen criteria · Central Europe · Slovak Republic · Pre-accession adviser · Political transition · Legal transposition · Legal implementation · Administrative cooperation · Environmental legislation · Air quality · Air quality legislation · Air quality framework directive · Air quality monitoring stations · Air quality management zones · Air quality management plans · Siting · Wind roses · Topographical relevance · EU best practice guidelines · Slovak Ministry of Environment · Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute · Slovak Meteorological Journal · Bratislava · EU environmental reporting · Consensus building

In case study ➂, the quality control of proper geographic locations of air quality monitoring sites (AQMS) in Slovakia was performed by the author (Fig. 4.1). Before accession to the European Union, the Republic of Slovakia has asked the EU for support to strengthen its institutions in the field of air quality in order to fully meet the accession requirements (Copenhagen criteria). Regarding air pollution, the entire EU has been regulated by the Air Quality Framework Directive (AQFD) which has to be implemented by national legislation in each member state or candidate country. The main EU instruments for accession are the so-­ called Twinning projects which consist of a partnership of experts from member states (MS) and candidate countries (CC) of the level of administrative experts and which last typically 1–2 years and are managed in the CC by a long-­ term expert residing in the CC for at least one year (which was the author’s role). As one of the activities in this Twinning, the geographic locations of the three dozen “Air Quality Monitoring Stations” (AQMS) on Slovak territory had to be doublechecked and corroborated with meteorological argumentation by the author according to the “best practice guidelines” in force that had been worked out by experts on the EU level.

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019 G. Ahamer, Mapping Global Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51704-9_4

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4  Case Study ③: Geo-localising of Air Quality Monitoring Sites

38

How to situate AQMS nationally in order to best detect exceedances of limit values?

Atmospheric diffusion analyses, wind roses, practical assessment of situations & topography

Are the stations suitably downwind from the most relevant polluters?

Relocate some of the official Slovak stations, amend technicalities, draw up air quality management plans in heavily polluted areas

Expert judgements & estimation using wind data

60-80% are appropriately located for EU Directive

Fig. 4.1  Two-layer concept applied to case study ③: Geographic location of air quality monitoring sites in the Slovak Republic

Two articles in the reviewed Slovak Meteorological Journal (Ahamer 2001a, 2002) and also a book chapter (Ahamer 2005c) highlight the EU accession process in general, the aforementioned Twinning project and its results. An example of a concrete result is a map that outlines for which of the Slovak administrative regions the above-mentioned “Air Quality Management Plans” (AQMPs) are still to be established (Fig. 4.8).

• Real-world problem (Fig. 4.1, starting above left): identify monitoring sites which characterise sufficiently well the air quality in all regions of the Slovak Republic. • Analysis and model: assess the meteorological situation with respect to local emitters. • Indicator: year-long half-hourly air quality measurement data series from previously selected AQMS. • Method: combined analysis of topography, wind roses and emission data of all major air pollutants. • Result: a list of the most characteristic and suitable air quality monitoring sites for each Slovak region. • Recommendation and action: move some AQMS and build some new ones, financed by the EU. The act of mapping consists in: reducing the geographic and topographic complexity of an entire area to a set of characteristic and representative single points by means of a legitimate algorithm.

The author worked in the role of such a “Pre-Accession Adviser” (PAA) in an Air Quality Twinning in the Slovak Hydrometeorologic Institute (SHMÚ) in Bratislava and was responsible for the co-ordination of a dozen short-term experts from the Slovak, Austrian and British authorities. The Twinning on Air Quality SR98/IB/EN/03 during 2000– 2001 comprised three main parts (represented as three sectors on the reports’ covers in Fig. 4.5 at the left): 1. Legal part: transposition of legal status, namely, the acquis communautaire regarding air quality, into Slovak law. 2. Technical part: implementation of the transposed regulations. 3. Practical part: enforcement of Slovak legislation in case of exceedances by AQMPs. The geographic task is: how can differentiated and topographically determined realities such as air quality be truly captured (= sufficiently adequate in their temporal and spatial significance, compare Fig. 4.2) so that their legal relevance remains intact? The aim is to adapt or corroborate the geo-localisation of two AQMS per region. The concrete target is: • To create sound and reliable legal legitimacy on the basis of geo-referenced data selections. • To adhere to the EU “best practice guidelines”; these are normative texts hierarchically lower than the EU framework directives or daughter directives. • To give concrete advice regarding future governmental investments and EU infrastructure programmes, namely, to relocate AQMS or to buy new AQMS equipment (as was done in the subsequent project SK03/IB/ EN/01).

4  Case Study ③: Geo-localising of Air Quality Monitoring Sites

Methodologically, case study ③ seeks to characterise properties of space by a reduced set of geo-referenced points to a degree of validity that is sufficient in legal terms. Legitimisation occurs through a representative selection of spatially distributed time series of measurements that secure geo-representativeness.

39

Motto of mapping in case study ③: STATIC MAP OF REPRESENTATIVE SITES (1 fact ➔ 1 site) (in other words, validity of georeferenced reduction of complexity).

Fig. 4.2  Maps of the emissions of SO2, NOx, CO and PM10 in t/km2 in 1999 for each district in the Slovak Republic as cited in the first of 12 EU Twinning reports edited by the author (Schneider 2000). (Data source: SHMÚ)

Previous eras of air quality management in the 1980s used the concept of “polluted areas” (Fig. 4.3 left, according to pioneering German legislation: BImSchG 1974) which had to be monitored by well-targeted continuous measurements, whereas the modern concept of the AQFD divides the

entire area into “zones” (Fig.  4.3 centre) which must be described by well-argued measurement sites capturing the worst likely air quality (Fig. 4.4 right). For budget reasons, the number of ~30 relevant sites on the entire Slovak territory (Fig. 4.3 right) could not be augmented considerably.

Fig. 4.3  Evolution of the zoning methodologies: before the air quality framework directive (left) and according to the AQFD (centre); scenario 1 means one of the options for administrative regions (green, AQMS in

polluted areas; red, AQMS in clean air areas). Map of the limited number of existing air quality monitoring stations (AQMS) (right, source: SHMÚ and Ahamer 2001c)

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4  Case Study ③: Geo-localising of Air Quality Monitoring Sites

Fig. 4.4  Map of Slovak administrative regions and the locations of the air quality monitoring sites (AQMS) (above left), the topography and the wind roses (below left), the isolines of SO2 and NO2 concentrations

as computed by the Slovenský Hydrometeorologický Ústav (SHMÚ) show the “hot spots” of pollution. (Images cited after Ahamer 2001c: 11–26)

Geographically, the zoning of “air quality zones” was still completely unclear during the Twinning because of political struggle inside the SR government about how to deal with the Hungarian minority and their possible unification in to one southern Hungarian-speaking administrative region as politically desired by the minority. Consequently, the Twinning partners had to develop three different scenarios

for “air quality zones” in order to take into account possible future administrative borders of regions in Slovak territory. Ultimately, this concept of “air quality zones” is a method to take into account complex geographic realities impacted by administrative and topographic aspects such as local emissions (Fig. 4.2), wind (Fig. 4.4 below left and Fig. 4.5 right) or pollutant concentration (Fig. 4.4 right).

4  Case Study ③: Geo-localising of Air Quality Monitoring Sites

41

Fig. 4.5  Report cover for the 12 published reports (far left), geo-­ (wind roses, right) and emission data (top right) from Twinning Report referenced registry of the large (blue) and medium (green) emitters of number 9 (Ahamer 2001c: 17–37) as documented in this Air Quality air pollution (left, using the example of Bratislava), meteorological data Twinning for all Slovak AQMS sites (red)

Figure 4.5 shows how the documentation (cover at far left) had to be done: for each area (map at near left), the AQMS at each site (red sign) had to record the emissions of the main emitters (blue signs and listed in the table on top) while taking into account the prevailing wind distribution (on the right) and the regional wind situation (far right; as intensive research and conversation showed, no such wind atlas covering all of Slovakia had existed at the time).

Figure  4.6 illustrates that the guidelines required the author to document the local situation by “compass photographs” into eight directions (N, NE, E, SE, S, SW, W, NW) and by a detailed map. Infrared detectors, filters, hoses, pumps, electronics and data transmission had to be checked during field missions of several weeks in all of Slovakia (as example, see Sect. 19.3 on p. 281).

Fig. 4.6  Sample locations for the AQMS in the territory of the Slovak Republic: from left to right: site on the premises of the Slovak Hydrometeorologic Institute (SHMÚ) plus map; Vlčince near Žilina;

Žiar nad Hronom; Kojšovská Hoľa near Košice, presently a weather radar station after having been built as a military station overlooking Hungary during Comecon times (Ahamer 2001c)

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The target of the official Slovak national report under AQFD by the author (Ahamer 2001c) was to prove that the real-world situation of air quality is measured to the best possible extent by the prescribed number of monitoring stations (three per air quality zone; see Fig. 4.4 top left) – or in case of suboptimal siting to suggest improvements. Criteria for geographical representativeness are: • The largest emitters (listed in an emission database, Fig. 4.5 centre above) are captured sufficiently well. • The most severe situations of high pollutant concentration (see Fig. 4.4 right) that result from topography and meteorological conditions (mainly wind; see Fig.  4.4 below left and Fig. 4.5 at right) are captured sufficiently well.

4  Case Study ③: Geo-localising of Air Quality Monitoring Sites

Several field trips by the author in spring 2001 (Fig. 4.6) resulted in suggestions to improve the placement of several stations in order to meet EU criteria (Table 19.2 on p. 289), be it because several industries had closed down in recent years or because of increased traffic. A key result of annual official national AQ reports required by the AQFD (for which the Twinning team produced samples; a typical cover see in Fig. 4.5 far left) was the assessment above which critical level (defined in Fig.  4.7 left) each zone was situated regarding air quality of SO2, NOx, PM10 (= particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 10μm) and other pollutants (Fig. 4.8).

Fig. 4.7  The AQFD defines an elaborate sequence of threshold values with resulting tasks after their exceedances (on the left). Additionally, the “margin of tolerance” allows for controlled exceedances until a well-defined “attainment date” (on the right). (Image source: Ahamer 2002: 9)

Fig. 4.8  Map of the assessment of Slovak ambient air quality for SO2, NO2 and particulate matter primary energy 1990

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relative units

Fig. 6.20  On the left: countries are shaded with woody biomass growth higher than primary energy demand (1990). On the right: total biomass growth (as + nvn) per grid element (2.5  ×  2.5°) divided by

primary energy (1990): at first sight, this diagnosis seems promising but almost all dark grid cells are outside urban areas, which emphasises that only rural areas seem sufficiently autarkic

Figure 6.21 (left) provides a synopsis of all four types of transport restrictions (granularities: globe, region, country, grid cell: Ahamer 2014b) mentioned above and shows the considerable decline of biomass potential when calling for “transport sustainability”. When the energy demand pro-

jected for 2100 limits biofuel use, higher potentials exist (Fig.  6.21 right) but dwindle under transport restrictions  – more pronounced for the nvn strategy using remote, non-­ urban areas as compared to using agricultural areas situated nearer to populated, urban areas hungry for energy (as).

Fig. 6.21  Highly theoretical growth potential for biomass (herbaceous plus woody, on agricultural areas: as plus on natural areas, nvn), if biomass transport can occur only within the following areas: (1) entire

globe, (2) continent, (3) country and (4) grid element. Biomass energy use is restricted by the primary energy demand inside the respective areas in 1990 (left) or 2100 (right)

Looking at case study ➄ from the meta-level, the direction of logical conclusion goes from causal relationships (claimed to be known) to spatial patterns, as opposed to case study ④ earlier.

But it is only an illusion that we pretend to know sufficiently well how (the change in) one variable impacts on (the change in) another given variable. In reality, we can never be sure to know enough about functional interactions of reality in order to be able to run “models”. One approach might be to start out from real-world trends instead of starting out from formulae and models, which always remain hypotheses based on reduced complexity.

Generally speaking, functions (= “formulae”) are known here in case study ➄: these formulae describe growth and decay of plants according to aggregate biological knowledge. In a well-defined quantitative model as is used in case study ➄, there is no doubt about how the different descriptors interact with each other – at least in the perception of the modeller.

Such an approach is chosen in case study ⑥ – to better comply with life’s complexity.

6  Case Study ⑤: Global Patterns of Energy Demand and Biomass Fuel Supply

References Ahamer, G. (1993). Der Einfluss einer verstärkten energetischen Biomassenutzung auf die CO2-Konzentration in der Atmosphäre. Dissertation, Technische Universität Graz, Austria. Ahamer, G. (1994a). Auswege aus dem Treibhaus – Bewertung unterschiedlicher Strategien. Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen ‘et’. ISSN 0720-6240, Issue 4/1994, 228–236. Ahamer, G. (1996a). Global energy use and land use change in agriculture. In M.  F. Hofreiter & F.  Sinabell (Eds.), Macroeconomic and agricultural aspects of CO2 emission (pp.  51–66). Kiel: Wissenschaftsverlag Vauk. Ahamer, G. (1997c). Klimamodelle und Klimawandel [Climate models and climate change]. Lecture notes at Salzburg University, Institute for Geography, Summer semesters 1997 until 2001; and Institute for Chemical Technology at University of Technology Vienna 1999– 2003, 250 pages plus annexes. Ahamer, G. (2008b). Im Spiegelkabinett unterschiedlicher Entwicklungsvorstellungen. Journal für Entwicklungspolitik (JEP), 24(3), 56–76. See https://www.mattersburgerkreis.at/site/de/shop/ jepartikel/shop.item/169.html Ahamer, G. (2014b). Forward looking needs systematised megatrends in suitable granularity. Campus-Wide Information Systems, 31(2/3), 81–199. https://doi.org/10.1108/CWIS-09-2013-0044. Ahamer, G., & Strobl, J.  (2009, April). Energetic mapping: Maps of energy potentials and plots of energy trends. In Proceedings of the International Conference “V Zhandaev Readings”. Al-Faraby University, Almaty, Kazakhstan. Ahamer G., Strauß, C., Prüller, R., & Scholz, J.  (2009). OpenSolarCA’09  – Open access for success -Solar energy potentials in Central Asia evaluated by GIS methods. Workbook for the workshop on August 24–26, 2009  in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. ISBN 978-3-85125-067-1.

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Ahamer G., Strauß, C., Prüller, R., Scholz, J., & Lehner, C. (2010c). EnerGIS’10 Staff Development Workshop – Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for energy issues in central Asia. Workbook for the workshop on September 20-24, 2010 in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, ISBN 978-3-85125-124-1. GEA. (2010). Global energy assessment. Laxenburg: Coordinated by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA. http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/ENE/GEA/ Goodchild, M. F., Steyaert, L. T., & Parks, B. O. (1996). GIS and environmental modeling: Progress and research issues. New  York: Wiley. Landes, D. S. (1999). The wealth and poverty of nations: Why some are so rich and some so poor. New York: W.W. Norton. Salmhofer, C. (2007). Critical contributions on palm oil. Interdisciplinary Practical “A Climate to Act” at Graz University, SS2007, Environmental Systems Sciences, Graz, Austria. Salmhofer, C. (2009). OpenSolarCA‘09 Konferenz in Kirgisistan. Report for Klimabündnis Kärnten, http://www.klimabuendnis.at/ start.asp?ID=229556. SRES. (2000). Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Nebojša Nakićenović and Rob Swart (Eds.), Cambridge University Press. Available from http://ww.ipcc.ch. Summary for policy makers at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special-reports/spm/sres-en.pdf Strobl, J. (2006a). A digital Earth framework for regional autonomy in energy supply. Presented at the UN/Austria/ESA symposium on space applications to support the plan of implementation of the world summit on sustainable development “Space Tools for Monitoring Air Pollution and Energy Use for Sustainable Development”, Graz, Austria, 12–15 September 2006, UN Office for Outer Space Affairs OOSA. Tobler, W. R. (1970). A computer movie simulating urban growth in the Detroit region. Economic Geography, 46(2), 234–240. WEC. (1998). World energy outlook. IIASA and World Energy Council, Nebojša Nakićenović, Arnulf Grübler, Alan McDonald (Eds.), Cambridge University Press.

7

Case Study ⑥: The Chain of Agricultural Production and Consumption

Abstract

• This is the most voluminous of all eight case studies. It perceives and quantitatively detects the main dynamics in the global agricultural system. Food demand and supply are analysed per country during a time span of several decades. The path from demand to supply of cereals is described as a logical chain including the following steps (“absolute variables”): deforestation, arable land, cereal area, cereal production, cereal supply, cereal food and population. Quantitative analyses and correlations for this logical chain are provided by the Global Change Data Base (GCDB, © G. Ahamer). • The classical question “how many people can the planet feed?” calls for an answer in the form of scenarios that include reasonable assumptions on future trends in the following descriptors, which are actually the quotients of consecutive steps in the chain (“relative variables”, describing seven subthemes): cereal area demand, cereal productivity, cereal trade, cereal distribution, quality of food mix, cereal food per capita and population growth. Many graphical and analytical correlations between these magnitudes and their driving factors allow insights into the interconnected long-term dynamics: saturation states seem to be reached in several subsystems at different points in time which suggests the conceiving of (a) “evolutionary time” (GDP/capita is used as proxy variable) and (b) a “functional state space” made up by the above-­mentioned relative variables describing system states. • An in-depth analysis of correlations of swarms of timelines of the globe’s countries suggests that the dynamics of the food system can be best described by a sequence of saturation states that is consecutively reached in all of the above-mentioned agricultural subthemes (relative vari-

ables). This hypothesised evolutionary dynamic is named “blossoming evolution” in the present book. Change rates of such variables seem to evolve smoothly and cause system transitions when switching sign. • These findings suggest that the architecture of a complex, evolving system may depend on the system’s stage in its evolution. Additionally, the findings allow assessment of the explanatory power in the seven subthemes of (a) spatial dependencies (e.g. autocorrelation in space as in geography) as opposed to (b) temporal dependencies (e.g. autocorrelation in time as in economics). • This sixth case study maps a complex functional system into correlations of time series of state variables.

Keywords

Agriculture · Global food system · Agronomy · Cereal supply · Cereal demand · Cereal area · Cereal productivity · Cereal trade · Cereal distribution · Food mix · Cereal food per capita · Population growth · Global Change Data Base (GCDB) · Land use · Arable land · Environmental Kuznets curve · Change patterns · Green revolution · Food production · Food demand · Agricultural production efficiency · Evolutionary path · Transition phase · Structural shift · Logical chain · Correlations · Regressions · Time series · Evolutionary time · Functional space · System state · State space · Blossoming evolution · Systemic parameters · GCDB method · System transitions · Driving factors · Spatial autocorrelation · Temporal autocorrelation · Geography · Economics · Evolutionary system · Saturation state · Turning point of paths · Mapping strategy · Trend diagram · Pattern recognition · Evolutionary pattern

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019 G. Ahamer, Mapping Global Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51704-9_7

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7  Case Study ⑥: The Chain of Agricultural Production and Consumption

68

How much land will be presumably deforested in a given area?

Deforestation could be driven by additional need for arable land (questionable hypothesis)

Past trends of the drivers that are likely to be continued in future

In order to avoid deforestation, loosen the pressure on all drivers Know how to act

Extrapolation of those drivers according to its non-linear past

A combination of several agroeconomical effects

Fig. 7.1  Two-layer concept applied to case study ➅: The chain of agricultural production and consumption

Case study ➅ presents global scenarios for ‘‘the chain of agricultural production and consumption” and understands that “global change” is driven not only by fossil fuel emissions (as described in case study ➄) but also by deforestation activities (case study ④), as shown in Fig. 5.7 on p. 50. Hence, it was essential to find possible answers to the question “how much deforestation will take place in the coming decades?” This is partly linked to the traditional question “how many people can the globe’s surface feed?” Moreover, complex effects of technological innovations, shifts in consumption patterns and labour divisions invariably occur that cannot be described easily by straight algorithms.

The preceding case study ➄ did not yet answer the fundamental question of to what extent, and how dynamically, biomass energy production might enter into conflict with food production – such is included in this case ➅.

• Real-world problem (Fig. 7.1): an explanation is searched for the very complex global pattern of driving forces for deforestation activities in the different countries of the world. • Analysis and model: a multitude of correlation and cross-­correlation analyses between time series (not only for data points as in case study ➁) is established in order to single out potential “driving factors” exhibiting high correlation coefficients. Also quotients and change rates of these drivers are viewed. • Indicator: the explicitness and smoothness of historic paths of development. • Method: a graphic-oriented pattern analysis of sets of data series, because it is very important to understand the “texture” of correlations (as an example,

the impact of weather and climate on agricultural yields). • Result: clusters of likely descriptors for a complex dynamic phenomenon partly depending on geographic and climatic framework conditions and partly depending on the economic level. • Recommendation and action: respect the course of historic procedures and integrate the dynamics of ongoing long-term trends into the design of political measures.

The author’s analysis finally extended to identifying driving factors that determine likely future deforestation activities, which – in an early concept – were largely determined by the quest for new arable land.

The act of mapping consists in: finding and creating graphic representations for a geo-referenced dynamic development of a multitude of parameters in history and in the future. (Time series are aggregated on the levels of countries, regions or continents.)

7  Case Study ⑥: The Chain of Agricultural Production and Consumption

The EU project “European Studies of Carbon Cycle in Ocean, Biosphere and Atmosphere” (ESCOBA) embraced almost all European study groups working on the global carbon cycle (Fig. 7.2; Kaduk and Heimann 1996) and included the author’s study on future scenarios of land-use change (Ahamer 1995; Ahamer and Esser 1997). These scenarios were planned to drive the assumed landuse change in the “High-Resolution Biosphere Model”

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HRBM (Esser 1988) which models the globe’s biosphere in a 0.5° × 0.5° grid level (Fig. 7.2) with an algorithm comparable to the author’s CEBM used in case studies ④ and ➄. Technically speaking, the link from the author’s scenario driving land-use change to the HRBM was the model parameter “relative agricultural productivity” (RAP), the quotient of agricultural versus natural plant productivity in a given country (see maps of RAP and RAP change rate in Fig. 7.3).

Fig. 7.2  The density of NPP in the new HRBM (at left, Kaduk and Heimann 1996: 15, Esser et al. 1994) compared to the average NPP levels resulting from an international IGBP comparison exercise of 17 biosphere models (at the right, Cramer et al. 1995: 14)

Fig. 7.3 The variable “relative agricultural productivity” RAP = NPPagri/NPPnat (defined by Esser et al. 1994: 29) is the link between the global growth model (HRBM, Fig. 7.2 at left) and the global agricultural model (rhombus in the centre of Fig. 7.6 on p. 71). As a rough approximation, it tries to describe agronomical efficiency as an aggre-

gate number per country (left). The RAP change rate is shown at the right (compare its time series in Fig. 7.4 left). Data and change rates: Esser et al. 1994 and equivalent to Ahamer (1995), mapped into the 0.5×0.5° grid (~40×40km2) of the High-Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM); graphics by Esser and Kühn (2002: 251)

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7  Case Study ⑥: The Chain of Agricultural Production and Consumption

The emphasis of this case study ⑥ lies in mapping the dynamics of geo-space, especially of its agricultural structures. The object of mapping is an interacting system, not only a geographically distributed set of attributes. The act of mapping pertains to the interrelation of facts, not to the facts themselves (compare Haggett’s (2000) approach “geography on the beach” where he focuses on distances between objects, as mentioned in Sect. 11.2 on p. 149). Resulting maps should hence not only show objects but rather include ­relations between objects. Therefore, the act of mapping in case study ⑥ extends from the topographical space to the functional space.

The self-regulating, evolutive system of case study ⑥ is best depicted by focusing on its dynamics. Essentially, the functions (i.e. the relations between describing variables) are not yet known and are still to be identified – this is the key methodological difference to case study ➄. Visible “paths of

development” of describing variables are understood here to represent fundamental evolutionary trajectories. A reliable “function” in this pragmatic sense is whatever shows sufficient correlation. The task of “pattern recognition” (typical of any geographic science) here not only applies to spatial patterns but also extends to “functional patterns”. Here, the functional space (as different from the space of objects) is described graphically by correlation patterns (signals often look noisy as in Fig.  7.10) by means of the “Global Change Data Base” (GCDB) (Ahamer 1994c, 2013c, 2015, 2018). The fundamental difference between objects (= elements) and functions (= interactions) was introduced by the two central columns of Table 1.1 on p. 6. (Later in Figs. 10.5f on p. 132, this entire deliberation will be deepened.) In the GCDB, time series are only a starting point for further analysis. Figure  7.4 shows some examples from the GCDB (which has been originally developed to compute, organise and display global trends): at the left a relative variable (source data from FAO) in the form of an index, at the centre an absolute variable (graphically an area plot, symbolised by rectangles in Fig. 7.6) and at the right a relative variable (graphically a line plot, symbolised by rhombuses in Fig. 7.6).

Fig. 7.4  Graphical examples of time series from the GCDB pertaining to agriculture. The distinction between absolute variables (t, ha, €, persons, etc.) and relative variables (e.g. quotients of the former) is the

same as for energy variables in case study ➄ and is inspired by Formula 5.1 on p. 51. For the definition of the “seven continents” (defined by the FAO database), see Fig. 7.5

At this point, we start to become aware that some mapping exercises pertain to objects (i.e. properties of grid cells) and some to functions. It is possible to: • Map objects, e.g. ① and ③ • Map functions between objects, e.g. ② and ⑥.

Fig. 7.5  Definition of the 120 countries (at left) and of the “seven continents” (at right including the former USSR) as used by GCDB & FAO. Blueish colours refer largely to what was earlier called “1st World”, red to “2nd World”, and greenish-brown to “3rd World”

7  Case Study ⑥: The Chain of Agricultural Production and Consumption

However, case study ➅ very decisively goes beyond conceiving time series of parameters. We do not limit ourselves to mapping change rates. Even the GIS (geographical information systems) scientists Andrienko and Andrienko (2006: 12, 390) show that a plain “time series” strategy is not sufficient to render visible existing dynamic structures. Hence, quotients are either displayed as time dependent (e.g. Fig. 7.4 right) or as function of GNP/cap (e.g. Figs. 7.8, 7.9 and 7.15 to 7.41). For this target, the analytical tool for the GCDB (© G. Ahamer) contains not only the above-mentioned tool for deriving new parameters but also the tool for correlating parameters. The logical scheme used in case study ➅ (and case study ⑦ in analogical manner) is shown in Fig. 7.6. Each pair of rectangles (0 = extensive variables) forms a quotient (◊ = rhombus = intensive variables). Below left in Fig. 7.6, “yn” denotes one such absolute variable along the logical chain (rectangles); quotients such as “yn−1/yn” denote relative vari-

Fig. 7.6  The agronomical chain of cause and effect for the High-­ Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM) with 0.5°×  0.5° ~ 60,000 grid elements (Ahamer 1995). The elements of this logical chain (rectangles; global values for yn and its change rates are given) are connected by processes (arrows) that are characterised by aggregate quotients

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ables (rhombuses). Later in Sect. 22.8, Fig. 22.13 on p. 323 clearly depicts and defines these two types of variables. According to Formula 7.1 (Ahamer 1995; Ahamer and Strobl 2010: 5), the scenarios are organised as being logically composed by the “chain of cause and effect” in Fig. 7.6 in order to be systematically and methodically transparent (scenario examples later in Fig. 7.7). Per-country food demand and supply (in structural analogy to Formula 5.1 on p. 51) are described by:

Formula 7.1

Arable land use   arable land / cereal area    cereal area / cereals produced    cereals produced / cereals supplied    cereals supplied / cereals as food    cereals as food / capita   population

(rhombuses; global values for “yn−1/yn” are given). As defined by Formula 7.1, these (demand-side) quotients are considered as driving factors for their leftwards neighbour, namely, the supply side. Consecutive numbering on the bottom line refers to all Figs. 7.7 to Fig. 7.45 and the following subheadline numbering (0) to (7)

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7  Case Study ⑥: The Chain of Agricultural Production and Consumption

Fig. 7.7  Above: Average annual change rates of the demand side of the global agricultural chain (rightmost five rhombuses in Fig. 7.6) for the “High-Resolution Biosphere Model” (HRBM), developed out of the CEBM used in case studies ④ and ➄. This logical structure for land-use change shows annual change rates of the impact factors in Formula 7.1

that are graphically defined as quotients in Fig. 7.6. Below: Three pronounced scenarios (mid, hi, lo) sweep the range of possible future agricultural development (details in Chaps. 22.9–22.12 on p. 325ff; Ahamer 1995)

In case study ➅, the entire agricultural production process is understood to be the result of a complex set of drivers that can no longer be described by (simple) formulae (as sometimes in economics or as still in case study ➄) but rather by taking into account “reality” as it is (here “reality” is described in the form of statistical data); Chap. 22 provides more detail.

The same approach of “esteeming” complex reality but not simplifying formulae characterised already case study ②. Therefore, in this text, preference is given to a graphical method as opposed to an analytical method of description as occurs traditionally in science. Such complies well with geography as a “pattern-oriented” science.

7  Case Study ⑥: The Chain of Agricultural Production and Consumption

The bars numbered (2) through (7) in the legend at right in Fig.  7.7 equal the “driving factors” (the five rightmost rhombuses) in the logical chain of Fig. 7.6 or the quotients in Formula 7.1 on p. 71. These demand-side drivers are hypothesised to influence land-use change (black bar no. 1). Supply-side drivers, however, are analysed in Figs. 7.8 (energy and labour intensities of agriculture) and 7.9a–h.

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Well-arguable scenario writing is the essence of case study ➅ and therefore the next step of reasoning will ask for the internal interdependencies within the (potentially large) set of driving factors and represents the analogous methodological step as the switch from the “simple” model to the “detailed” model in case study ② (a collection of such correlations is in Fig. 7.10a–h).

Energy intensity of agriculture Energy demand in Agriculture / Agriculture, value added Megajoule / US$, 1987 constant prices

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Soviet Union likely future development

Africa Asia Europe

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path of development

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100 000 US$, Atlas method

Labour intensity of agriculture workers / 1000 US$, 1987 constant prices

Agricultural labour force / Agriculture, value added in 1987 $

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path of development Soviet Union Africa Asia Europe N+C America Oceania South America World

1

likely future development

0.1 100

1 000

10 000

Gross national product per capita Fig. 7.8  Global agriculture is characterised by increasing energy intensity (above) and decreasing labour intensity (below; Ahamer 1997a). The seven "continents" (Fig. 7.5) are marked in the legend; and the position of the continent symbol within the line means the most recent year of the time

100 000 US$, Atlas method

series. Thus, time development in such images graphically resembles a swimming tadpole - thus defining well its direction. Economically speaking, a replacement of economic factor inputs can be observed as a global long-term trend, namely human labour is replaced by (fossil) energy

Fig. 7.9  Selection of global trends that have inspired the agricultural scenarios for the HRBM in Figure 7.7. These parameters are likely to change with increasing GDP/cap.: (a) structural shift of economic sectors with lower share of agriculture, (b) energy intensity improvement,

(c) improving area efficiency, (d) lowering share of agricultural workforce, increasing machinery input (e) and fertiliser input (f) reduced food use of produced cereals, increased meat share in diet (h) (Data source: GCDB, FAO, World Bank)

10000

(b)

Intensification in cereal production and in meat production 1000 t/1000 ha

Petajoule / 10^12 US$, 1987 constant prices Total: Agriculture / Agriculture, value added / Conversion Factor

(a)

Energy intensity in agriculture versus cereal productivity

100000

1

0.1

World NAM: North America LAM: Latin America & Carib.

Soviet Union Africa Asia Europe N+C America Oceania South America World

WEU: Western Europe

Slaughtered meat - Production / Perm pastures

EEU: Central & East. Europe FSU: Former Soviet Union MEA: Mid. East & North Africa AFR: Sub-Saharan Africa CPA: Centrally Planned Asia SAS: South Asia PAS: Other Pacific Asia PAO: Pacific OECD

1000

0.01

0.001

100 0.10

1.00 Cereals, total - Production / Cereals, total - Area Harv.

0.1

10.00 t / ha

(c)

10 1000 t / 1000 ha

(d)

Production factor "land" input versus production factor "machinery" in cereal production 10

Numbers / 1000 t

Numbers / 1000 t

Labour force input versus mechanisation in cereal production

1 Cereals, total - Production / Land use - Arable land

1000

100

1 0.001

0.01

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1

10

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Harves.-threshers - In use / Cereals, total - Production

10

Soviet Union Africa Asia Europe N+C America

1 0.1

1

10

Oceania South America World

0.01

0.001

0.0001 Agricultural labour force - Total / Cereals, total - Production

0.1 Land use - Arable land / Cereals, total - Production

1000 / 1000 t

(e)

t / ha

Impact of fertilizer use on cereal yield

1000 ha / 1000 t

(f)

Increase in arable land versus deforestation

10

Land use - Arable land

Cereals, total - Production / Cereals, total - Area Harv.

1000 HA

1 000 000

1

Soviet Union Africa Asia Europe N+C America Oceania South America World

100 000

a slope like with the dotted line means: decrease in forest land equals increase in arable land

0.1 0.001

0.01

Manuf. fertilizers - Consumption / Cereals, total - Area Harv.

0.1

(g) numbers / 1000 t

Energy input (fertilzer intensity) versus level of mechanization (machinery intensity) 1000 t /1000 ha

10 000 100 000

1 t / ha

100

Land use - Forest wood

1000 HA

1 000 000

(h)

Increasing mechanisation in cereal production

100

1 0.001

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Tractors agricultural - In use / Cereals, total - Production

Manuf. fertilizers - Consumption / Cereals, total - Area Harv.

10

Soviet Union Africa Asia Europe N+C America 10

Oceania South America World

0.01

1 0.001 Harves.-threshers - In use / Cereals, total - Area Harv.

0.1 Numbers /1000 ha

Fig. 7.10  Mapping of the dynamics of the global agricultural system in order to build scenarios for the High-Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM). The figures are examples of correlations produced by the analytical tool of the “Global Change Data Base” (GCDB, © Gilbert Ahamer) and show typical evolutionary paths of cereal and meat pro-

1 Harves.-threshers - In use / Cereals, total - Production

Numbers / 1000 t

10

duction, mechanisation in agriculture and land-use change as displayed by the correlations by countries, by continents or by regions (Ahamer 1995). A strong correlation might indicate (quasi-)causal relationship and could be seen as a “path of evolutionary development” (Data source: GCDB, FAO, World Bank). Legend for (a) to (h): see overleaf

7  Case Study ⑥: The Chain of Agricultural Production and Consumption

76

Legend for the single themes in Fig. 7.10 starting from above left row by row: (a) “Energy intensity and cereal productivity”: energy use in agriculture per GDP in agriculture vs. cereals produced per cereal area (b) “Intensification in cereal production and in meat production”: slaughtered meat per pastures vs. produced cereals per arable land (c) “Labour force and mechanisation”: harvesters and threshers per produced cereals vs. agricultural labour force per produced cereals (d) “Input of land and machinery”: harvesters and threshers per produced cereals vs. arable land per produced cereals (e) “Impact of fertiliser use on cereal yield”: produced cereals per cereal area vs. fertilisers consumed per cereal area (f) “Deforestation”: arable land vs. forest woodland (g) “Fertiliser intensity and machinery intensity”: fertilisers consumed per cereal area vs. harvesters and threshers per cereal area (h) “Increasing mechanisation in cereal production”: agricultural tractors per produced cereal vs. harvesters and threshers per produced cereals

Parameters shown in Fig. 7.10 describe the supply side (i.e. the left third of Fig. 7.6, whereas the demand side at the right hand side therein fills Fig. 7.7) of the global agricultural food chain in various ways, for example, land used per produced cereals, deforested land, fertiliser input, machinery input and energy input. These agricultural factor inputs (circle in the centre of Fig.  7.6, some plotted in Fig. 7.8) are interconnected among themselves (as were the biospheric and other descriptors in the detailed caesium model in case study ➁, Fig. 3.11 on p. 33). In some cases of Fig. 7.10b, e, f, h, the graphical impression arises that the development for most countries and regions follows a “path” which might be similar for all economies. Such detection of evolutionary regularities is one of the targets of the GCDB. Weather-induced volatility of agricultural productivity as in Fig.  7.10c shows characteristic graphical zigzag patterns that might be less pronounced after geographical aggregation or moving averaging in time.

Figure 7.11 enlarges Fig.  7.10f and suggests two distinctly differing paths for the so-called First and Third Worlds: afforestation and decrease of arable land (by setaside policies) in Europe (pointing rightwards down) and the opposite for Asia, Africa and South America (deforestation, trend pointing upwards left). This is the same message as in Fig. 5.4 on p. 48, only viewed by another mapping strategy. Actually, one target of this book is to discuss diverse mapping strategies. Additionally, Figure 7.11 suggests a practically oriented estimation for how much space might be available for biomass fuels given business-as-usual trends in land-use changes. It thus complements the theoretically oriented assessment of the maximum biospheric biomass energy potential performed in case study ➄ by a more realistic evaluation of area actually disposable for globally phasing in biomass production.

The land use transition: space is freed for biomass

Arable land in 1000 ha

1 000 000

path of Third World: more arable land = less forest

Soviet Union Africa Asia Europe N+C America Oceania South America World

100 000

path of First World: more forest = less arable land

10 000 100 000

1 000 000 Forest wood land in 1000 ha

Fig. 7.11  This example shows that long-term trends often depend substantially on the geographic (or economic) region. Hence, megatrends are geo-referenced. The First World seems likely to increase forest areas anyhow, according to trends in recent decades. To interpret the direction of these line graphs, see caption of Fig. 7.8: they move towards the symbol

7  Case Study ⑥: The Chain of Agricultural Production and Consumption

The long-term, evolutionary, historic information contained in Fig. 7.11 corroborates the hypothesis made in Fig. 5.4 centre on p. 48, namely, that a civilisational phase of deforestation (triggered by perceived shortage of arable land) would be followed by a civilisational phase of afforestation (and affluence of arable land). In Europe, presently set-aside areas have to be explicitly dealt with politically and need considerable financial efforts to solve such land-­use transition.

77

One generalisable result of all cases is that regression analyses along the entire chain (Ahamer 1994a) suggest that

there are consecutive phases of transitions into characteristic saturation states for the chained subthemes (Fig.  7.12 centre). An example is the sequence of economic sectors displayed in Fig.  7.12 centre right (quantitative details in Ahamer 2004a, b, 2005a: 103; 2010b: 291). The principally same type of structural shift is illustrated by the well-known geographer Haggett (2001: 249) for the first, second, third and fourth economic sector (cf. Fig. 23.5 on p. 346); and more generally Haggett (2000: 142ff) and Kuby et al. (2007: 149) write on shifting styles.

Fig. 7.12  The mapping strategy of the GCDB consists in depicting a very complex manifold of data (and their change rates) not as time series but as a function of the economic level GDP/cap (far left). It allows generating of hypotheses on the “global civilisational evolution”

such as the saturation paradigm (left). A series of saturation curves (right, “blossoming evolution”; see end of Sect. 22.10) is suggested to occur at a different physical time (but the same evolutionary time) around the globe (far right)

The notion of “carrying capacity” can very suitably be integrated into reasoning about global scenarios and global trends. Several of the correlations in Fig. 7.10 show saturation effects, which means that saturation is an essential characteristic of the global agronomical evolution. To generalise: the unlimited growth of variables exhibits a slowdown and break before a limit is exceeded. Presumably the level of the saturation limit can be identified by close analysis of the data and the hypothesis that evolution occurs along the path of a sigma curve. For the very long-term evolution, the level of this saturation limit is more decisive than the exact path towards it. A good practical example for the application of “carrying capacity” is the RAINS model developed at IIASA that has defined critical load thresholds of SO2 deposition for Europe that must not be exceeded. The RAINS (1998) model calculates the maximum emission for each country, which served as basis for the negotiations of SO2 emissions. This example proved that a successful international treaty was reached on the basis of a scientific model. A similar notion is “the ecological footprint” (see Rauch and Strigl 2005) which represents an aggregated metric for a

compound of several environmental variables which are all renormalised to a value of “area demand”. When methodologically deliberating the best mapping strategy, the question arises whether quotients are best plotted as a function of time or of something else – and answers are possible on several levels: • Such plots show almost no correlations or other patterns • Many economic effects do not depend on calendar years but on the inner structure of an economy. Therefore, the decision was made to plot all variables of the GCDB against GDP/capita. Figure 7.12 (far left) clearly defines the best mapping strategy as the one which facilitates best “pattern recognition”. Hence, “GDP/cap” is pragmatically preferred to “time” as the axis for “maps of time-space dynamics” (see the following dozen of figures), even if seemingly prejudicing a developmentist model (Ahamer 2010a). This “transformation of coordinates” was hinted at in item I.ii of the summary on p. xxxi. Further analyses on the detectability of evolutionary patters follow in Chap. 14.

7  Case Study ⑥: The Chain of Agricultural Production and Consumption

78

Detailed consideration of levels and change rates for case study ➅: Land-use change in the GCDB:

0.1

0.1

GDP per capita

to +1% to

0%

0%

to −1%

−1%

to −2% < −2%

+10%

6%

4%

2%

0%

0%

100 000

+2% +1%

8%

10 000

100 000 current US$ / person

10%

> +2%

-2%

change rates

-4%

-6%

-8%

-10%

−10%

GDP per capita

$/cap

levels

10 000

1 000

1

$/cap

1

10 100

10 ha / ha

10 10 5 2 1 0.5 0.2 0.1

Land use - Arable land / Cereals, total - Area Harv.

> 5 to 2 to 1 to 0.5 to 0.2 to 0.1 to
ρ( ) where ρ( ) denotes the density of respective items (compare Table 10.5 on p. 125). This means that a conscious entity has much more interaction within itself than with the outside. This text uses the word “consciousness” for such reflection leading to self-­ awareness. Some more very basic suggestions to define “conscious” are: • Reflective thinking occurs. • ρ( ) > ρ( ) or even ρ( ) >> ρ( ). • Is able to look in on itself, creates a “representational space” according to Lefebvre (1974). • Hence is able to plan deliberately and can therefore be an “actor”. • Is a starting point of individual action and hence able to enact (procedures). • As a consequence, possibly produces a time of itself (its system time = treflecting individual). • As a consequence, is not only subject to the Second Law of Thermodynamics. A non-reflecting entity cannot perceive itself and is therefore unable to take the role of an actor. Hence, actors can be seen as reflective (i.e. conscious) entities. The following paragraph (and Sect. 13.2 to 13.4) applies to conscious entities in the above sense. Hence, such an interacting system is ­self-­defining, self-generating, i.e. autopoietic (the systems analytic vocabulary for “producing itself”) and no longer prone only to the maximisation of entropy according to the Second Law of Thermodynamics, which is valid (only) for non-self-­ organising systems. There is a co-evolution (i.e. mutual shaping during their genesis; compare Norgaard 1995, 2004, 2005) of space, the individual actors in it (humans forming a society) and the perspectives taken by them (set of views forming values). In the same vein, recent psychological and medical literature (Bauer 2007; Hüther 2006a, 2008b, 2011a) verifies that human behaviour is targeted to successful cooperation and delivers an experimental corroboration by detecting substances producing the perception of happiness after humans have behaved cooperatively.

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25  Annex to Lessons Learned: Spotlights on the History of Geography

25.5.2 Space Means Separation of Possibilities for Communication To repeat what was suggested in Sect. 13.2 to define space in very fundamental manner, space separates individuals taking part in communication. For this understanding compare the usage of travel time for creating an (additional) metric in space by the geographer Peter Haggett in Fig. 12.5 on p. 167. Distance renders communication impossible; this is equivalent to the meaning of space as a provider of opportunities to interact, when colocated. Analogously to the above contemplation of “what is space?”, we may perceive “time”: Time separates procedures taking place. Quite literally speaking, procedures (from Latin, coming forward; mathematically, time intervals Δt) take (i.e. need) place to exist, and they need time (t) as a substrate for occurring, i.e. lasting (existing) during the change process. Space prevents from happening at the same place, and time prevents from happening in the same period.

Formula 25.1:

space : = separation of possibilities for communication

Formula 25.1 writes this approach suggested above (the sign := means “is defined by”, as in mathematics). Such an approach is in line with the British geographer Ron Martin (1999: 65): “if everything occurred at the same time there would be no development, and indeed, there would be no time”. Consequently, lifting such “spatial” separation (i.e. providing juxtaposition in such space, or proximity as in Schweiker 2008: 6; Brown 2008: 50) enables communication. From a humanistic, philosophical standpoint, it might even be desirable to enable more and more communication – this might boil down to rendering space ever more irrelevant – admittedly a concept that might seem unusual at first sight (Renard 2003). Quite practically, lifting (i.e. vanishing, rendering irrelevant or dissolution) of such space may occur among other places: (1) In everyday life through information and communication technologies (ICT) such as the Internet (see Fig. 13.1 on p. 183); for example, see the early Arab Spring movements, through true and empathic cooperation among humans (Hüther 1999, 2004; 2006a, 2015: 18; Dorner 2009: 67; Sheldrake 2003) or technologically by e-learning strategies: what an implementation of de Chardin’s (1955) noosphere (ὁ νοῦς or ὁ νόος: the mind in Greek).

(2) In quantum mechanics through instantaneous information transfer across large distances as described by Einstein, Podolsky and Rosen (Einstein et  al. 1935) and often reconsidered as the EPR paradox (Moser 1989, 1999; Dispenza 2015, 2019). In this sense, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) facilitate the exchange of views (to the extent that these are space-related and geo-referenced, hence localisable) which is a necessary precondition for dialogue (Sui & Goodchild 2011) that in turn promotes scientific evolution or at least is hoped to promote cultural evolution at the same time. In the sense of this text, GIS (and virtual globes) act as providers of world views; they facilitate and enhance discussion on individual world views (and thus might even contribute to “speeding up” evolution), at least technically, but in an optimistic case also conceptually by deepening understanding of opposing views. From the perspective of GIS proponents, geo-referencing may represent a common denominator between and among individuals who want to exchange world views, e.g. for planning, which concretely means public participation by GIS (PPGIS, Jekel et  al. 2010; Ahamer & Purker 2011; Strobl 2006b). Similarly, Craglia et  al. (2012: 13) posit that the new “Digital Earth (…) will be not just about space and spatial relations but also about place, culture and identity, spanning the physical and virtual space. It will thus emphasise the analysis of networks and flows, and relationships”.

25.5.3 A Methodology to Map Spatiotemporal Dynamics Mapping of land-use changes or energy issues has taken many forms, as described in Ahamer and Strobl (2009). In this chapter and the entirety of this book (esp. Chap. 7), two mapping strategies are proposed (here using the example of energy economics): (1) classical maps of energy demand and of potential energy supply and (2) plots of energy-related structural variables against GNP/cap. Conclusions can be drawn by (1) comparison of the different spatial patterns and (2) projection of long-term trends for energy demand and supply. The combination of both approaches facilitates “mapping” of dynamic structures. When trying to describe or “map” the future, two principal approaches can be considered: 1. Mapping the spatial patterns of supply and demand (and their driving forces) 2. Mapping the temporal patterns of supply and demand (and their driving forces) Geography as a scientific discipline proposes different views on reality from an idealised standpoint that no human

25.5  Revisiting the Key Concepts of This Book

ever takes in practice (generalised bird view, Ahamer et al. 2010b). But this “borderline case” of a bird’s view permits the existing differences in perception among individuals to be overcome. Principally speaking, such bridging of standpoints is needed in any civil society (Schmitz 2009: 9, 2003: 21, Dave 2008: 290, Ahamer 2008f: 88). The present Section 25.5.3 investigates the following issue: how much energy do we need globally and how can we cover that demand globally? The following paragraphs will introduce to (spatial and temporal) maps (shown in Ahamer & Strobl 2009). What drives energy demand? Generally speaking and using terms of system analysis, any complex (economic or other living) system tends to grow as a result of its inner structure. Consequently, the growth rate of any (economic or other) system is closely determined by its inner (political, technological, social, etc.) structure. We may hypothesise: if the systems structure remains the same, the growth rates are likely to be constant. But in reality each system changes during growth and alters its structure. This is the reason why each of the formula’s quotients (in Formula 5.1 on p. 51, compare Fig. 6.2 on p. 55 and Fig. 6.14 on p. 59) changes: it “walks along a path of development” and hence characterises the “emission scenarios”. In addition to the absolute magnitudes (CO2, E, GNP, Pop), the maps in Chap. 6 show the relative magnitudes made up of the quotients of the neighbouring (and subsequent) variables for the years 1990 and 2100: E/cap, CO2/ cap, E/GNP and GNP/cap.

391

China and the USSR over the previous century (Ofer 1987, Chow 1993). In some studies on growth (Grossman & Krueger 1995: 370), environmental damage is reported to increase with GNP growth up to a level of 9000$/cap and then it decreases: This behaviour is referred to as environmental Kuznets curve (EKC, Foster & Rosenzweig 2003, compare Fig. 7.44 on p.  89). As an example, according to the IMF (2009), Kazakhstan’s GDP/cap amounts to 6868$/a for 2007  – a good indication for imminent improvement of fossil fuel-­ induced environmental damage. Evolutionary economics as a scientific discipline views developing economic structures (Bergh & Stagl 2003: 290) and links them to institution building. In a sense this recent scientific discipline can be seen as an application of Schumpeter’s ideas (Hanusch 1988).

All components of Formula 5.1 on p. 51 have been mapped in Figs. 6.3 to 6.13 on p. 55ff. The reader might have noticed that each of these parameters: 1. Develops with a different dynamic 2. Develops with a different geographic pattern 3. Might run into saturation or even reverse the direction of change from + to – or vice versa

Change rates are essential (as graphically displayed in Fig. 23.8 on p. 348) – but how to map them? From the above deliberations, we can deduce that growth rates play a central role in describing the dynamics of a system, (compare Fig. 7.45 on p. 89). Consequently, we should concentrate on how to “map” them in a suitable manner. As two examples, the growth rates for population and for GNP/cap are displayed as a traditional map (in Fig. 6.13 on p. 58 and in Fig. 7.40 on p. 87), again serving to discern typical geographical patterns. However, interpretation will largely follow the lines of complex historic, economic and political “world wisdom” and does not easily open itself to simple dependencies on latitude, longitude or climate, even if several authors have tried to deliver explanations that may seem too simplistic to many readers (Landes 1999). At this point, our perspective opens from patterns to the dynamics of patterns. The global mega-trend of agricultural efficiency improvement is likely to release pressure on arable land and to free up a certain amount of arable land for other targets such as energy production (Ahamer 1997a). Similarly, a rise in forests with GDP/cap is reported by Foster and Rosenzweig (2003: 601).

Geographic patterns of growth may show parallel growth in all countries or widening gaps between countries (see on Table 14.2 on p. 191)  – this is a highly disputed question among economists (Basu and Weil 1998) – depending on the growth theory a person prefers, either a neo-classical or Keynesian view (Barro 1999). Findings that seem to apply at any rate are as follows: political stability and democracy also promote economic growth (Barro 1991: 432), not only technology (deLong & Summers 1991), research and development (Jones & Williams 1998) and stable economic integration (Rivera & Romer 1991, 1994; Devereux & Lapham 1994). Regression methods were widely used to analyse growth patterns in

Ultimately, the present volume heads towards the “evolution of structures” and how to best describe them, notably also of institutionalised, i.e. durable social structures (Ahamer 2008b), be they explicitly in the form of administrative institution building (e.g. Twinnings that played a role in cases ③ and ⑦) or more implicitly in the form of prevailing production patterns (such as global land use, agroeconomic and energy economic systems in case studies ④, ⑤, ⑥). Evolution includes cultural evolution and civilisational evolution, as is understood in this text. This means the genesis of any structures, not only of biological ones. As an example, evolutionary economics has become a well-­ established discipline, as has institutional economics.

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25  Annex to Lessons Learned: Spotlights on the History of Geography

Fig. 25.1  The interrelatedness between spatial structures and communicative procedures (see Fig. 14.3 on p. 190) applied to economic and demographic functions according to Knox and Agnew (1997: 5). This conceptual framework is implemented in Table 14.1 on p. 188

25.5.4 Generalising the Task of Global Development Many of us may tacitly hope that there is only a small step from the description of reality to control of reality when having understood spatio-temporal dynamic systems, as Haggett (1990: 104) impressingly describes in his chapter “From Forecast to Control”. He uses the example of the spatial diffusion of foot-and-mouth disease and shows that monitoring the spatial pattern of its spread facilitates “geographically targeted vaccination strategies, in conjunction with slaughter, as a more cost-effective way of containing” this highly infectious disease as compared to slaughtering the entire animal population in previous times. Given the strong dependence of tacit understandings on preconceptions (as is visible from the history of geographic thought, Chap. 12), it is appropriate to introduce a caveat: this text aimed to develop a presuppositionless (Whiteman 1967: 9, 25) and ideology-free, theory-free assessment method for global change – at least between the two main competing theories within economics, the neoclassic model and Keynes’ theory. Hence, the empiric and heuristic pattern-oriented GCDB method was chosen. Still there remains one theoretical aspect within that has to be interpreted suitably (or exchanged against another parameter), namely, the pragmatically chosen parameter GDP/cap for the horizontal axis (which adds the conceptual insufficiencies of the classical GDP concept and the insufficiencies pertaining to all path interpretations).

At any rate, any pattern-oriented method for path detection is an iterative endeavour taking the steps “contemplation of diagram patterns” and subsequently “reconsidering the dimensions spanning up the diagrams” during several steps of iteration. Any pattern-oriented method can be interpreted as a methodology deeply inspired by geographical thinking. Further application of this method might be provided in a future book. The present book is still the methodological volume, not yet the volume containing detailed results beyond Fig. 14.9 on p. 197 at the right. Another issue for the GCDB method is: Could one find a well-equilibrated view of a space-referenced (geographic perspective) and a time-referenced view (historic or economic perspective) of complex procedures (Fig.  25.1)? A considerable spatial turn in human and social sciences was diagnosed by Soja (1989) that he feels is overdue after a century-long emphasis on historic and social sciences (Gebhardt et  al. 2007: 32; Goodchild & Janelle 2010: 4ff; Barney & Arias 2008: 3; Sects. 12.2 and 25.1). For Soja, the task of geography as “spatial science” consists in analysing the unrepeatable uniqueness of spatial patterns and the simultaneousness of different forms of societal organisation and structurisation while leading beyond Hettner’s layer model (Fig. 11.12 on p. 152; Gebhardt et al. 2007: 47). (Such an approach might be by the way a contradiction to one of the scientific paradigms of classical natural sciences, which is repeatability.)

25.5  Revisiting the Key Concepts of This Book

393

Fig. 25.2  A stamp symbolises potential communication (left); a stamped stamp symbolises enacted communication (right)

25.5.5 Granularity in Reality: Evolutionary Creation of Structures

25.5.6 Spatial Metrics Based on Potential or Enacted Communication

Where might the speculative concept of Sect. 13.3 on p. 180 for including time into space lead to? As a second hypothesis, such a proposed underlying structure of reality could potentially explain granularity; this is the grained structure of reality (Ahamer 2014b). Actually, grained structures have been the regular world view in physics for a century, as an example pertaining to energy that can only stepwise be added to a given energetic state. These tiny portions, the so-called energy quanta, are described by quantum mechanics and are a direct consequence of the structure of reality as such (Trevors & Masson 2011: 43). Based on the seminal findings of the German physicist Max Planck (1858– 1947), no continuum of energy states can be envisaged anymore. In the discipline of geography, granularity is a common and constitutive feature, mainly in GIS where the resolution of images of the Earth’s surface invites deliberations on optimal resolution for discerning structures, mostly geodetic structures in the landscape (Lang & Blaschke 2008; Li et al. 2014). Moreover, granularity of information (among other things regarding economic sectors or time steps) was discussed in Ahamer (2014b); compare the analogous Fig. 15.11 on p. 224. In the quite contemplative picture provided in Sect. 13.2, information leads to the granularising of consciousness into individual consciousness. In such a view, the existence of individuals (as opposed to one single holistic total) is a consequence of the structure of reality as such.

A very practical example for what is meant by the difference between potential or enacted communication is a normal stamp: by itself, a stamp is only an “option to communicate” with somebody via letter (at the left in Fig. 25.2). However, only when the stamp is devaluated and stamped, the act of communication is actually implemented and enacted (at the right in Fig. 25.2). When continuing to consider Formula 13.12 on p. 180 and envisaging the limit case described therein, it could be (very hypothetically) deliberated that the number of these occurrences might tend to a maximum during universal history, in case (as a hypothesis) the options for communication increase or sum up (because no communication option might ever be “forgotten”)  which would result in ever smaller distances |x| in the universe – such a universe would shrink. Conversely, decreasing the number of universal occurrences for communication options would mean an expanding universe.

Compared with the basic differentiation of options of communication versus enacted communication in Sect. 13.3, two principal cases can be distinguished: 1. In cases of a low number of individuals: options >> enacted (because there are so few actors) ⇒ t is slow. 2. In cases of a high (or maximum) number of individuals: options ≈ enacted, i.e. all actions are taken into account and are made use of; hence, Formula 13.13 on p. 180 is valid. This means that consciousness extends to the limits of the universe.

It may be helpful to consider when such a borderline case (i.e. when the sign = instead of the sign > is valid in Formula 13.12 on p. 180 which would mean that any possible communication option is also enacted) is reached: this might occur after t = ∞, i.e. after infinite time. Such might be symbolically thought of as an outer skin of a universe based on a metric of enacted communication (as opposed to communication options). In other words, this hypothetic symbolic interpretation means that the outer border of the universe is limited by how much the communication options are made use of; hence, this outer border of the universe is no fixed border at all. In the context as described above, W(enacted communication) is the limit case for minimal nearness. As a tentative result of the above contemplation, one may conceive that the individual world of one acting conscious entity is smaller than the universe as such. This statement is no surprise when compared to either everyday experience or the common psychology of perception.

25  Annex to Lessons Learned: Spotlights on the History of Geography

394

Another tentative symbolic inference of the above contemplation might be that the maximum time span for life (possibly individual life or life in general) might be indicated by when all communication options are made use of. This equals the case of the sign “=” above as opposed to the sign “>”. Consequently, tmax is individually different for all entities. Preliminarily and tentatively, we define as tmax(life) = when all (communication) options are made use of. It seems that there are as many worlds as there are types of communication.

25.5.7 Modes of Communication, Reflectivity and Evolution Table 25.1 provides an overview of all three fundamental types of interaction in space, namely, those analogous to matter particles, information or light (from left to right, compare the longer tables in Ahamer 2014d: 185ff).

Table 25.1  Three examples of re-location from location 1 to location 2 for different entities (Ahamer 2014d: 185ff). These entities create three different concepts of space. Legend: ∝ means proportional; ∫ means integral; δ means delta function (always 0 except 1 at location of x)

Movement of a material individual in geodetic space: 1→2 One action Non-dissipative field

Spread of information in space one action, one entity One action

2 1

Constant = mass Mass exists at location 2 ⇒ “individuality”: unmistakable, unexchangeable, no ubiquity

Propagation of electromagnetic wave in space (e.g. light) One action Dissipative field 2

2 1

1

Constant = info in space All information exists ⇒ “is everywhere”: undeletable, not loseable (= impossible to lose)

As mentioned on the first page in Sect. 13.2 on p. 178 and below centre in Table 15.8 on p. 225, the number of possible communicative combinations is best described by combinatorics, i.e. by n! (= n × (n-1) × (n-2) × … × 2 × 1). As a remark, it is mentioned here that the mathematical function “n!” grows much faster than the “exp(n)” after a certain threshold value of n. This very tentatively could eventually hint at starting from when “individuals” are produced in a conscious continuum that potentially interacts within itself, namely, possibly starting from when the “energy for inner formation” of an additional element of n can be invested by the system because it is energetically preferable to generate an additional individual or similar. As a generalisation, the suitable mathematical function for structural growth might be Γ(x), not exp(x) which is appropriate for biological growth or any material growth: • In mathematics, the structure of n! (n factorial; Γ(x) in , ), or as generalised writing ( special case n above k) equals the group shaking hands with each other, the number of ways of how to combine elements with each other, combinatorics, hence the creation of (communicative) structures  – which might even be practically unlimited. • In mathematics, the structure of exp(x) equals the growth that is proportionate to the magnitude itself (x ∝ x), such

Constant = ∫ density over a sphere Light is completely existent in sphere 2 ⇒ ubiquity: no individuality, needs field for transport

as bacterial growth or economic growth – which is only theoretically unlimited. Evolution includes cultural evolution and civilisational evolution, as understood in this text. This means the genesis of any structures, not only of biological ones (Trevors 2010; Abel & Trevors 2006; Levy-Booth et  al. 2007). As an example, evolutionary economics has become a wellestablished discipline. On a meta-level, evolution means that the material (i.e. space-related) world and non-material (i.e. not space-related) world coexist but with a shift of emphasis towards the latter. The following path of reasoning (mentioned in the vision in item I.iii in the Summary on p. xxxi) seems promising. When understanding global evolution as a series of structural transitions as in case study ⑥ (Fig. 7.44 on p. 89) or others (such as case study ⑧) then each transition can be understood to create “structures” that might be spatially anchored structures or also socially anchored institutional structures in a society. The hypothesis emerges that suitable “structures” are resistant to disappearing easily during evolution. A “structure” is a domain where certain laws are valid, e.g. legislation, joint or egoistic benefit, optimisation, e.g. energy, infrastructure, spatial planning, transportation, etc.

25.5  Revisiting the Key Concepts of This Book

One possible hypothesis (backed by system analysis; see Sterman (2000)) is that the creation of structures is highest with highest density of interaction in a system. Introduce and define the notion of “density of interactions” as ρ(interaction) = number of interactions/number of elements in a system. Beyond a critical threshold of ρ, autopoietically structures seem to begin to grow evolutionarily. Two examples of such institutional structures regarding climate change are the IPCC and the UNFCCC (at the left in Fig. 5.7 on p. 50), representing the scientific (IPCC, factuality) and the administrative (UNFCCC, legitimacy) paradigms. Walking through the sequence as suggested in Fig. 9.11 on p. 113 represents the STAB procedure. STAB represents such an elementary cycle of institution building and may be applied to both societal and individual themes such as climate change and e-learning. As a preliminary working hypothesis (which will not be essential for the coming derivations, however), “consciousness” may be understood as a property generated by reflectivity or reflection, again mediated by communication ( ). All these theoretical ingredients are easily hypothesisable and are not unusual for a systems analysis approach towards reality. At any rate, the eminent geographer Waldo Tobler (2004a: 305) cites the eminent physicist Feynman (1967, 156) by pointing out that (new) “laws can only be discovered by doing something radically different”. In the view of the GCDB method, targets of civilisations are closely related to the second derivative of the respective magnitude, because “implemented targets” necessarily mean the deviation of the “business-as-usual” trend. Possibly a constructivist approach similar to “Surfing Global Change” (see case study ⑧) can be used to accelerate the formation of authentic targets in a society. This approach means having confidence in the validity of responsible self-directedness of people and to consequently educate them accordingly. In the evolutionary and systemic understanding of this book, the variable GDP/cap will therefore dissolve by itself and will lose its meaning: the cascade of sigma curves in Fig. 7.12 on p. 77 suggests that a saturating sigma curve redirects the main interest and target of evolutionary movement and hence produces new values (Ahamer 2008b). Only seemingly, an interpretation of the social behaviour of mankind is the pursuit of a higher economic level (i.e. GDP/cap) and maximisation of own profit (as suggested by neoclassical economics’ concept of homo oeconomicus) and that the “evolutionary target value” would be higher GDP/ cap. But the professional experiences of several (developmental) projects in many countries at various stages of transition rather suggested that values are produced by esteem (in German, Wertschätzung erzeugt Werte; Ahamer 2013a: 229): Esteem creates value (Formula 25.2).

395

Formula 25.2:

Esteem creates value

This is a special case of: perception of reality results in the fact that there is reality, i.e. it is possible to invest in the values by perceiving them in reality (Ahamer 2010a; 2013a: 229; Küstenmacher et  al. 2012; Trevors & Saier 2010b; Hüther 2008b, c, 2011a, b; Capra 1997). Such an approach is similar to Hans Jonas’ (1979) principle of responsibility (ethics based on the concept of responsibility, consequentialism, practically implemented in technology assessment, climate protection, e.g. see in Staehli 1998). In brief, in this book values are thought of as those targets of evolution that are not explainable by intra-system reasoning (e.g. by material necessity or by self-interest) but that reach beyond the explanatory system envisaged (compare Gödel’s incompleteness theorems). In a materialist economic world, Fig. 14.8 on p. 195 and Table 14.3 on p. 196 map the shift of relative weights of “values”, i.e. targets of evolutionary dynamics, and show the consecutively emerging “new” civilisational values labelled by means of a vocabulary of economic sectors. In the multiparadigmatic view of this book, there is not only social (and symbolic) capital (Castells 1996; Ahamer & Strobl 2010: 11) but especially capital of consciousness – most likely the result of a reflective and autopoietic process (Hüther 2015: 10; Ahamer 2008b, 2009a, b). By definition, capital is something stockable, something that cannot be destroyed easily, mathematically an integrating function. After the emergence of and saturation in “values” pertaining to nutrition (e.g. in Fig. 7.7 on p. 72), material requirements, economic value and quality of life (well-being) – representing the “classical” economic sectors and hence epochs – intuitively a continuation of such emerging and saturating “values = evolutionary targets” is conceivable, namely, individual, societal, global and universal consciousness. It is clarifying to see that “evolutionary targets” seen from an ex post viewpoint are identical to “values” seen from an ex ante viewpoint (Ahamer & Strobl 2010: 10; Hüther 2015: 88). In this view, the final target of the universe’s evolution is to condense consciousness. Ultimately, neither pie charts of percentages of emitted CO2 nor plots of percentages of GDP but perceived and stabilised percentages of consciousness are appropriate to “map a civilisation”, e.g. graphically symbolised by the second derivatives as apparent from the slopes in figures such as Fig. 7.45 on p. 89 or more generally suggested by the IIS in Fig. 15.10 on p. 223.

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Based on the above contemplations, it can be hoped that consciousness is undeletably growing along evolution. Consciousness is enacted by communication. As a consequence of the above and based on formulae such as Formula 13.13 on p. 180 (meaning that space essentially acts as a hindrance to communication; see Ahamer 2012b: 328), space as such might necessarily shrink, vanish and become essentially void as a concept to the extent that communication becomes pervasive (Renard 2003; Schucman 1976). Revisiting the paradigms of geography, this book* suggests: • There is still no determinism: design the future! • Mankind’s hope is in voluntary learning effects. • Ceterum censeo: very final conclusion on how to best cope with global change: we should speed up procedural, socio-political, institutional evolutionary time as opposed to physical, astronomical, climate change time.

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* This book dealt with (global dynamics perceived through) space x; a planned next book will deal with time t (and energy), and a third book may be planned on (educational) structures by further analysing social patterns and dynamics supporting global techno-socio-economic evolution. The ultimate practical question is: How controllable and steerable is the future by humankind? How can humans influence an autopoietic, autotelic historic process? Presently, in western civilisation, and also regarding climate change, steering optimism was and is widespread. In contrast, this text suggests: Act, but act in coherence with ongoing autotelic procedures and developments and with the structurogenesis of the humanosphere, noosphere and institutional sphere in the cosmos (Vernadsky 1997; Ilyin & Rozanov 2013).

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 ppendix: Selection of A Geographic Literature

 Selection of “Most Suitable” A Geographic Literature in the Understanding of the Author 1. Integrative views (covering both physical geography and human geography) • Geographie: Gebhardt et al. (2007) [in German] • The Geographer’s Art: Haggett (1990) • Becoming a Geographer: Gould (1999) • Geography – A Global Synthesis: Haggett (2001) • Spatial Organisation. The Geographer’s View of the World: Abler et al. (1971) • Mental Maps: Gould & White (2002) • Geography: Realms, Regions and Concepts: de Blij & Muller (2000) • Geographisch denken und wissenschaftlich arbeiten: Borsdorf (1999) [in German] 2. Geography of globalisation • Geography of Globalisation. A critical introduction: Herod (2009) • The Power of Place: de Blij (2009) • Klassiker der Entwicklungstheorie. Fischer et  al. (2008) [in German]

3. Economic geography •  The Geography of the World Economy: Knox & Agnew (1997) • Economic Geography, a Contemporary Introduction: Coe et al. (2007) • Ökonomie der internationalen Entwicklung: Jäger & Springler (2012) [in German] 4. Human geography • Humangeographie: Gebhardt et al. (2008) [in German] • Human Geography. An Essential Anthology: Agnew et al. (1996) • Approaches to Human Geography: Aitken & Valentine (2006) • The Condition of Postmodernity: Harvey (1989) 5. Philosophy of space and time • Time, Space and Knowledge: Tulku (1986) • Concepts of Time and Space: Čapek (1976)

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Literature

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Ahamer, G. (1994a). Auswege aus dem Treibhaus – Bewertung unterschiedlicher Strategien. Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen ‘et’, ISSN 0720-6240, Issue 4/1994, 228–236. Ahamer, G. (1994b). Influence of an enhanced use of biomass for energy on the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. International Journal of Global Energy Issues, 6(1/2), 112–131. Ahamer, G. (1994c). The socio-economic database for the HRBM. Third interim report, Institute for plant ecology, Justus-Liebig-University, Giessen, Germany. Ahamer, G. (1995). A socio-economic interface for the global carbon cycle model ‘High Resolution Biosphere Model’. Final Report to the ESCOBA project group (= ‘European studies on carbon in ocean, biosphere and atmosphere’ within the 3rd framework program), 32 pages. Germany: Institute for Plant Ecology, Justus-­ Liebig-­University Giessen. Ahamer, G. (1996a). Global energy use and land use change in agriculture. In M.  F. Hofreiter & F.  Sinabell (Eds.), Macroeconomic and agricultural aspects of CO2 emission (pp.  51–66). Kiel: Wissenschaftsverlag Vauk. Ahamer. (1996b). Abschätzung der CO2-Minderungspotentiale zur Erreichung des Torontoziels durch Österreich [Assessment of Austria’s CO2 reduction potentials to reach the Toronto target]. UBA-Info October 1996 (pp.  2–6). Vienna, Austria: Federal Environment Agency (UBA). Ahamer, G. (1996c). CO2-Emissionen 1994 und 1995. UBA-Info September 1996, S. 2-4 (= official publication of the Austrian Federal Environment Agency UBA), also presentation at UBA on 14. 8. 1996 and in the Federal Workshop on emission cadastres, Office of the Federal Government of Salzburg on 6. 11. 1996. Ahamer, G. (1997a). Supply and demand in energy and agriculture: Emitters of CO2 and possibilities for global biomass energy strategies. World Resource Review (WRR), 9(4), 491–507. ISSN 10428011. See http://www2.msstate.edu/~krreddy/glowar/archive/ wrrvol997.html Ahamer, G. (1997b). Energie- und Emissionsbilanzierung für Österreichs Städte  – Fallstudie für Graz (Monographies, Volume M-084). Vienna: Federal Envioronment Agency. ISBN 3-85457-­ 338-3. Available at http://www.umweltbundesamt.at/fileadmin/site/ publikationen/M084.pdf Ahamer, G. (1997c). Klimamodelle und Klimawandel [Climate models and climate change]. Lecture notes at Salzburg University, Institute for Geography, Summer semesters 1997 until 2001; and Institute for Chemical Technology at University of Technology Vienna 1999– 2003, 250 pages plus annexes. Ahamer, G. (1999a). Energy and emission balance for the city of Villach. Technical report to the Arbeitsgemeinschaft Erneuerbare Energie Villach, Graz. Ahamer, G. (1999b). Technologiefolgenabschätzung [Technology Assessment]. Integrated university lectures at the University of Applied Sciences Joanneum Graz, curricula “Civil Engineering and

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410 Construction Management” and “Architecture” as well as Salzburg University, curriculum “Geography”, 400 pages. Ahamer, G. (2000). Luftqualität und Klima [Air quality and climate]. In H. Hoffmann (Ed.), The handbook “Nachhaltige Gemeindeplanung [Sustainable municipal planning]”. Vienna: WEKA-Verlag. ISBN 3-7018-4640-2. Ahamer, G. (2001a). Twinning: A tool for enhancing the accession process in the environmental sector. Meteorological Journal (Meteorologický Časopis Bratislava), 4(3), 3–17. ISSN 1335-­ 339X.  See title in http://www.shmu.sk/en/?page=31&highlight=c asopis and http://www.shmu.sk/File/ExtraFiles/MET_CASOPIS/ MC_4-2001_3.pdf Ahamer, G. (2001b). A structured basket of models for global change. In C.  Rautenstrauch & S.  Patig (Eds.), Environmental information systems in industry and public a­dministration (EnvIS) (pp.  101–136). London: Idea Group Publishing, USA and Hershey. See http://www.igi-global.com/chapter/ structured-basket-models-global-change/18530 Ahamer, G. (2001c). Documentation of existing air quality measurement sites in the Slovak Republic. Report 9 in the framework of the Twinning Project SR98/IB/EN/03 on Air Quality, Bratislava, ISBN 80-88907-20-9, 250 pages, as Slovak translation “Dokumentácia existujúcich monitorovacích staníc kvality ovzdušia na Slovensku”. See http://www.shmu.sk/twinning_internal/Report9_final_slovak. pdf. Bratislava, Oct. 01. Ahamer, G. (2001d). Complete website and project database of the Pre-Accession Adviser (PAA) for the “Twinning Project SR98/IB/ EN/03 on Air Quality” performed from May 2000 to May 2001 between the EU Candidate Country Slovak Republic and the EU Member State Austria in the framework of the accession process funded by Phare. See websites under http://www.shmu.sk/twinning/ Entrance.html. Last retrieved on 20 May 2002. Ahamer, G. (2002). Twinning on air quality: comparison of results regarding the Slovak accession process. Meteorological Journal (Meteorologický Časopis), 5(1), 3–19. Bratislava. ISSN 1335-­ 339X.  See title in http://www.shmu.sk/sk/?page=31&highlight=c asopis and http://www.shmu.sk/File/ExtraFiles/MET_CASOPIS/ MC_5-2002_1.pdf Ahamer, G. (2004a). Structural change in energy economics and long-term global mega-trends. Working Paper at Graz University. See http://www.uni-graz.at/globalstudies/deposit/USW_ VisionWirtschaftsEnergiekapitel.pdf Ahamer, G. (2004b). Experiences during three generations of web based learning. Six years of web based communication. In D.  Carstensen & B.  Barrios (Eds.), Campus 2004 (Series Medien in der Wissenschaft, Vol. 29, pp.  157–169). Münster/New York/ München/Berlin: Waxmann Verlag. http://www.waxmann. com/?eID=texte&pdf=1417.pdf&typ=inhalt Ahamer, G. (2004c). UBA Vision. Materials and analyses for the long-­ term corporate strategy of the Federal Environment Agency, Report, Vienna. Ahamer, G. (2004d). Negotiate your future: Web based role play. Campus-Wide Information Systems (CWIS), 21(1), 35–58. Ahamer, G. (2004e). Rules of the new web-supported negotiation game ‘SurfingGlobalChange’. Game for your Mark! In D. Carstensen & B. Barrios (Eds.), Campus 2004 (Series Medien in der Wissenschaft, Vol. 29, pp.  145–156). Münster/New York/München/Berlin: Waxmann Verlag. Ahamer, G. (2005a). How accession to the EU could change the atmosphere in a new member state. In M. Tschandl (Ed.), The challenge of the EU enlargement (pp. 91–108). Graz: Leykam Verlag. Ahamer, G. (2005b). ‘Surfing global change’: How didactic visions can be implemented. Campus-Wide Information Systems, 22(5), 298–319. Ahamer, G. (2005c). Imposing A dialogue helps to minimize a potential “clash of cultures”. In M. Tschandl (Ed.), The challenge of the EU enlargement (pp. 35–63). Graz: Leykam Verlag.

Literature Ahamer, G. (2006a). Development of financial instruments for water management based on the Water Framework Directive 2000/60/ EC. Presentation for the Twinning SI 2006/IB/EN/01 in the Slovene Ministry of European Affairs, 14 November 2006. Ahamer, G. (2006b). Surfing global change: Negotiating sustainable solutions. Simulation & Gaming – An International Journal (S&G), 37(3), 380–397. 10.1177/1046878106287772. http://www.unice.fr/ sg/. Text at http://sag.sagepub.com Ahamer, G. (2007a). Diskurs als didaktisches Grundkonzept treibt die Konstruktion von Qualität in der Lehre voran. Zeitschrift für Hochschulentwicklung, 2(2), 62–89. http://www.zfhe.at/ Ahamer, G. (2007b). The project “Surfing Global Change” (SGC) is finalist in the medidaprix 2007. See www.medidaprix.org Ahamer, G. (2008a). Geo-strategic similarities facilitate intercultural discursive strategies. KSUCTA News, 4(22), 67–71. Kyrgyz State University of Construction, Transport and Architecture, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, ISSN 1694-5298. Ahamer, G. (2008b). Im Spiegelkabinett unterschiedlicher Entwicklungsvorstellungen. Journal für Entwicklungspolitik (JEP), 24(3), 56–76. See https://www.mattersburgerkreis.at/site/de/shop/ jepartikel/shop.item/169.html Ahamer, G. (2008c). Virtual structures for mutual review promote understanding of opposed standpoints. The Turkish Online Journal of Distance Education (TOJDE), 9(1), 17–43, ISSN 1302-6488. See http://tojde.anadolu.edu.tr/ Ahamer. (2008d). Twinning mission report 1.9. In the framework of the Twinning Project SI06/IB/EN/01 “Development of financial instruments for water management based on the Water Framework Directive 2000/60EC”, Ljubljana/Slovenia. Ahamer. (2008e). Twinning mission report 1.11. In the framework of the Twinning Project SI06/IB/EN/01 “Development of financial instruments for water management based on the Water Framework Directive 2000/60EC”, Ljubljana/Slovenia. Ahamer, G. (2008f). Learning and analysing through the ’Global Change Data Base’. GISCA’08 conference on geographic information systems in Central Asia, Kyrgyz State University of Construction, Transport and Architecture, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. KSUCTA News, 4(22), 85–98. ISSN 1694-5298. Ahamer, G. (2008g). Evolution by reflection – Mapping global dynamics. Presentation for the Scientific Advisory Board of ÖAW-­ GIScience on 9.10.2008, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Salzburg, Austria. Ahamer, G. (2009a). Rezension des Bandes ”Klassiker der Entwicklungstheorie – Von Modernisierung bis Post-Development”, Journal für Entwicklungspolitik (JEP), 4/2009, 115–119. ISBN 978385476-276-8. See https://www.mattersburgerkreis.at/site/de/ shop/jepartikel/shop.item/1291.html Ahamer, G. (2009b). Mapping global change. Presentation at the Paris-Lodron University Salzburg, Department for Geography and Geology, 19.3.2009. Ahamer, G. (2009c) Am Nullpunkt des Studiums: Interfakultärer Dialog. Selbstmanagement in Studium und Beruf. [At point zero of my studies: Interfaculty dialogue. Self-management during studies and professional life] Lecture in the frame of the basic module for all faculties, Graz University, Austria. Available at https://www. researchgate.net/publication/340183429_Am_Nullpunkt_des_ Studiums_-_Interfakultarer_Dialog_At_point_zero_of_my_studies_-_An_interfaculty_dialogue Ahamer, G. (2010a). Social and cultural geography (Lecture notes for global studies) at Karl-Franzens University Graz, available at https:// www.researchgate.net/publication/236605390_Basic_Lecture_ Global_Studies_part_Social_and_Cultural_Geography_as_ppt Ahamer, G. (2010b). Heuristics of social process design. In A. Lazinica (Ed.), Computational intelligence & modern heuristics. ISBN 978-953-7619-28-2, Intech, pp.  265–298. See http://www. intechweb.org/, http://www.sciyo.com/articles/show/title/ heuristics-of-social-process-design

Literature Ahamer, G. (2011a). How technologies can localise learners in a multicultural space. International Journal of Technology and Educational Marketing (IJTEM), 1(3), 1–24. Ahamer, G. (2011b). IT-supported interaction creates discursive spaces. International Journal of Latest Trend in Computing (IJLTC), 2(2), 225–239. ISSN 2045-5364. Ahamer, G. (2011c). Localize individuals in spaces of interaction  – Analysis of online review processes. International Journal of Computer Science & Emerging Technologies (IJCSET), 2(3), 435– 454. ISSN 2044-6004. Ahamer, G. (2012a). Geo-referenceable model for the transfer of radioactive fallout from sediments to plants. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 223(5), 2511–2524. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11270-011-1044-x. Ahamer, G. (2012b). Human geography trains diverse perspectives on global development. Multicultural Education & Technology Journal (METJ), 6(4), 312–333. https://doi. org/10.1108/17504971211279554. Ahamer, G. (2012c). The jet principle: Technologies provide border conditions for global learning. Multicultural Education & Technology Journal (METJ), 6(3), 177–210. https://doi. org/10.1108/17504971211254010. Ahamer, G. (2012d). A four-dimensional Maxwell equation for social processes in web-based learning and teaching – Windrose dynamics as GIS: Games’ intrinsic spaces. International Journal of Web-­ Based Learning and Teaching Technologies (IJWLTT), 7(3), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.4018/jwltt.2012070101. Ahamer, G. (2012e). Training to bridge multicultural geographies of perspectives. Campus-Wide Information Systems (CWIS), 29(1), 21–44. https://doi.org/10.1108/10650741211192037. Ahamer, G. (2012f). Apocalypse Now  – Wandeln wir uns oder das Klima? The science quarter hour in the pub. Center for society, knowledge and communication, The seventh faculty, Graz University, 5.12.2012. See http://www.uni-graz.at/prko1www/ prko1www_projekte/prko1www_apocalypse.htm Ahamer, G. (2013a). Multiple cultures of doing geography facilitate global studies. Multicultural Education & Technology Journal, 7(2/3), 228–250. Ahamer, G. (2013b). Game, not fight: Change climate change! Simulation and Gaming – An International Journal, (S&G), 44(2–3), 272–301. Sage Publishers, California; Special Issue on “Climate change and simulation/gaming”. https://doi.org/10.1177/1046878112470541. Ahamer, G. (2013c). A planet-wide information system. Campus-Wide Information Systems, 30(5), 369–378. https://doi.org/10.1108/ CWIS-08-2013-0032. Ahamer, G. (2014a). Chapter 1: GISS and GISP facilitate higher education and cooperative learning design. In S.  Mukerji & P.  Tripathi (Eds.), Handbook of Research on Transnational Higher Education Management (Advances in Higher Education and Professional Development (AHEPD) Book Series, Vol I, pp.  1–21). USA: IGI Global Publishers. https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-4458-8. ch001. Ahamer, G. (2014b). Forward looking needs systematised megatrends in suitable granularity. Campus-Wide Information Systems, 31(2/3), 81–199. https://doi.org/10.1108/CWIS-09-2013-0044. Ahamer, G. (2014c). Evolutionary bloom: Collation of data on long-­ term evolutionary process in the world. MSU Bulletin – Series XXVII Globalistics and Geopolitics, 2014(3/4), 25–35. ISSN 0201–7385, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia. See http:// msupublishing.ru/index.php?option=com_content&view=article& id=356&Itemid=100123. [Original citation in Russian language: Ахамер Г. (2014), Эволюционный расцвет: обобщение данных о долгосрочных эволю-ционных процессах в мире. Вестник Московского университета, Серия XXVII: Глобалистика и геополитика, № 3/4, 25-35, Издательство Московского университета МГУ.].

411 Ahamer, G. (2014d). Formalised definition of communicational spaces. International Journal of Convergence Computing, 1(2), 167–198. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJCONVC.2014.063756. Ahamer, G. (2014e). Converging formalisations of communicational spaces. International Journal of Convergence Computing, 1(3), 199–220. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJCONVC.2015.076021 Ahamer, G. (2014f). Socio-drama in the web-supported negotiation game “Surfing Global Change”. In M.  Khosrow-Pour (Ed.), Inventive approaches for technology integration and information resources management (pp. 113–142). Hershey: IGI Global. https:// doi.org/10.4018/978-1-4666-6256-8.ch006. Ahamer, G. (2014g). Global studies means forward-looking. Editorial. Campus-Wide Information Systems, 31(2/3), 78–81. https://doi. org/10.1108/CWIS-01-2014-0001. Ahamer, G. (2014h). Kon-Tiki: Spatio-temporal maps for socio-economic sustainability. Journal for Multicultural Education, 8(3), 206–223. https://doi.org/10.1108/JME-05-2014-0022. Ahamer, G. (2015). Applying student-generated theories about global change and energy demand. International Journal of Information and Learning Technology, 32(5), 258–271. https://doi.org/10.1108/ IJILT-01-2015-0002. Ahamer, G. (2017). The global change Data Base pictures global dynamics. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy, 12(1/2/3), 121–149. https://doi.org/10.1504/IJFIP.2017.10006864. Ahamer, G. (2018). Applying global databases to foresight for energy and land use – The GCDB method. Foresight & SDI Governance, 14(4), 46–61. https://doi.org/10.17323/2500-2597.2018.4.46.61. Ahamer, G., & Esser, G. (1997). A scenario generator for land use changes for use in global carbon cycle models like the HRBM. Sciences Géologiques Bull, 50(1-4), 183–217. ISSN 0302-2692, Strasbourg, France. Ahamer, G., & Jekel, T. (2010). Make a change by exchanging views. In S. Mukerji & P. Tripathi (Eds.), Cases on transnational learning and technologically enabled environments (pp. 1–30). Hershey/New York: IGI Global. Ahamer, G., & Kumpfmüller, K. (2014). Education and literature for development in responsibility – Partnership hedges globalization. In S. Mukerji & P. Tripathi (Eds.), Handbook of research on transnational higher education management (pp. 1–21). USA: IGI Global Publishers. Ahamer, G., & Lesch, K.-H. (1995). Energie- und Emissionsbilanz Graz für die Jahre 1987 und 1993 [Energy and emission balance Graz for the years 1987 and 1993]. KEK report Nr. 6 in the framework od the Municipal Energy Concept (KEK), Energy Agency Vienna (E.V.A.) and Department for Environmental Protection of the Municipality of Graz, 56 pages. Ahamer, G., & Mayer, J.  (2013). Forward looking: structural change and institutions in highest-income countries and globally. Campus-­ Wide Information Systems, 30(5), 386–403. Ahamer, G., & Müller, H.-J. (1988). Caesium-137 uptake in aquatic vegetation. Poster at the XIX. International meeting of the European society of nuclear methods in agriculture (ESNA), 29.8.-2.9.1988, Vienna, p. 35. Ahamer, G., & Müller, H.-J. (1993). Überlegungen für ein Modell zum Verhalten von radioaktivem Cäsium in der Teichvegetation. In Report of the reactor institute Graz (Vol. RIG-21, pp.  101– 114). Graz: Institute for Theoretical Physics of the Technological University Graz. Ahamer, G., & Purker, E. (2011). Surfing Global Change – Partizipation „spielend“ erlernen. In M.  Handler & R.  Trattnig (Eds.), Zukunft der Öffentlichkeitsbeteiligung. Chancen  – Grenzen  – Herausforderungen” (pp.  163–170). Lebensministerium.at & ÖGUT & Strategiegruppe Partizipation, Vienna, 2011, ISBN 978-­ 3-­200-02142-6. See http://www.partizipation.at/zukunft-oe-beteiligung.html

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Index

A Absolute space, 385 Accessibility, 154 Accession to the European Union (EU), 37 Action in reflection, 193 Administrative cooperation, 37 Afforestation, 76 Agricultural areas, 291 Agricultural factor inputs, 333 Agricultural land demand, 311, 333 Agriculturally used area, 312, 329 Agricultural production efficiency, 67 Agricultural scenario, 323, 325, 327, 328, 331, 338 Agricultural transition, 187 Agriculture, 67–90 Agronomy, 79 Agro-technical progress, 311 Air emissions, 19–25, 285 Air pollutants, 250 Air quality, 37–43, 278–288 Air Quality Framework Directive (AQFD), 37, 39, 277, 287, 290 Air quality legislation, 37 Air quality management plans (AQMPs), 38, 42 Air quality management zones, 37 Air quality monitoring stations (AQMS), 37–39, 277–288 Alps, 246–247 Altitude dependency, 29, 255 Analytical tool, 312, 313, 321, 327, 334, 338 Approximation to EU, 37 Aquatic vegetation, 27 Arable land, 68, 71, 75–82, 89, 315, 323, 327, 330, 332 Assessment, 255 tool, 252 Atomic absorption spectrometry, 28 Atomists, 141 Austrian Alps, 27, 257–259, 268, 269 Autoadaptive didactics, 108 Autopoietic, 119, 124, 130, 214–141 dynamics, 195 Autotelic, 217, 228, 398 B Baseline scenario (BLS), 94–100, 343–344, 349–355 Basic social dimensions, 357 Best practice guidelines, 37 Biomass density, 298 Biomass energy, 53, 54, 60, 61, 63 potential, 61, 62, 306 scenarios, 307 strategies, 303 Biomass fuel(s), 303, 304

combustion, 303, 304 production, 304 Biomass growth strategies, 60, 62 Biomass potential, 305 Bird’s eye view, 143, 144 Blossoming evolution, 77, 196, 201, 311 Boltzmann, Ludwig, 176, 178, 179 Bottom-up method, 253, 344, 349 Bratislava, 38, 41, 44 Business-as-usual scenario, 343 C Cadastral survey, 19–24 Caesium adsorption (Cs adsorption), 27, 267 Caesium contamination, 258–268 Caesium deposition, 255 Caesium quotient (Cs quotient), 27, 265, 266 Caesium resorption, 27 Caesium transfer (Cs transfer), 27, 30, 36, 214 into plants, 257, 271 Calculation methodology, 249–251 Carbon cycle, 45 Carbon emissions, 45 Carbon fluxes, 291, 301, 308 Carbon-neutrality, 301 Carbon pools, 295, 299, 304 Cartography, 19 Castells, Manuel, 183 Causal relationship(s), 129, 141, 215, 220 CEBM, see Combined Energy and Biosphere Model Central Europe, 49, 257, 260 Cereal area, 71, 76, 80–82, 89, 311, 328, 329 Cereal demand, 311 Cereal distribution, 84 Cereal food per capita, 67 Cereal for food, 311 Cereal production, 319, 321, 322, 324, 334 Cereal productivity, 76, 81 Cereal supply, 83–84, 311 Cereal trade, 82 Chain formula, 314, 322–323, 333, 335, 351 Change patterns, 67 Change processes, 173, 182 Chernobyl, 27–29, 32, 35, 256–259, 265, 266 Classical approximation, 301 Clay fraction, 27 Clay minerals, 28–33, 255, 267, 270–273 Climate Alliance, 25, 249 CO2 emissions per capita, 53 Co-evolution, 200, 203, 391 CO2 fertiliser effect, 307

© Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2019 G. Ahamer, Mapping Global Dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-51704-9

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432 Combined Energy and Biosphere Model (CEBM), 45–50, 53–62, 291–295, 298, 303–306, 308 Common Implementation Strategy (CIS), 93, 101 Communicational density, 184 Communicational patterns, 121 Communicational world, 183 Communication diagrams, 357 Communication mapping, 357 Communication option, 180, 395, 396 Communicative social action, 177 Competitive debate, 104 Complexity, 5 Concepts of space, 143, 152, 153 Conceptual integration, 176, 223, 227 Conceptual model, 351, 352 Consensus building, 43, 107, 369, 370 Controversial debate, 103 Conversion into agricultural areas, 311 Convey information, 357 Cooperative discussion, 104 Coordinate transformation, 192, 212, 217, 225 Copenhagen criteria, 37 CO2 reduction potential, 307 Correlation(s), 68, 70, 77, 90 analysis, 321, 327, 334–335, 339 Critical GIS, 164 Cs-134, 27, 28, 30, 33, 35, 255, 258, 259, 273 Cs-137, 27, 28, 30–33, 35, 255, 258–260, 263–268, 270 D Debate, 360, 363, 372, 373 de Chardin, Teilhard, 194, 199 Decision support, 19 Definition of geography, 148, 240 Deforestation, 291–299, 304–307, 312, 319, 323, 327, 329, 333 scenarios, 48, 50, 295, 299 de la Blache, Paul Vidal, 161 Dependence on plant species, 255 Dependency theory, 166 Depth profiles, 255 Descriptive period, 161 Deterministic, 217 Developmental geography, 165, 385 Developmental paradigms, 242 Developmental phase, 216 Development paths, 198, 311 Diagnostic tool, 250 Didactic jet principle, 103, 360 Dimensionality, 126, 127, 141 Disciplinary views, 357 Discourse, 372 analysis, 387 Distance in space, 179, 192 Disturbed carbon cycle, 291 Donbass, 187 Drava River, 93, 100 Drivers of energy demand, 53 Drivers, pressures, state, impact and response (DPSIR) concept, 95, 97, 345, 349–353 Driving factors, 68, 71 Driving forces, 312, 339 Dushanbe, 144–147 Dynamic(s) mapping, 48 pattern, 50, 119, 124, 127, 134, 393

Index recognition, 112, 192 structures, 103 time-space structures, 189–190 Dynamics-as-usual scenario, 311, 332, 333, 335, 336 E Ecological system, 27 Economic(s) geography, 162, 165–166, 336, 387 organisation, 394 sectors, 344, 346, 349, 350 shift, 346 views, 370 EIA, see Environmental Impact Assessment Emission balance, 249–252 Emission cadastre, 19, 21, 22, 24 Emission factors, 252, 253 Emission inventory, 249 Emission of chemicals, 350 Emission projection, 252–253 Emissions scenarios, 207 Enacted communication, 180–182, 395 Enact processes, 182 Energetists, 176 Energy autarky, 64 Energy balance, 19, 251 Energy concept, 249, 254 Energy demand, 53–64 per capita, 57 Energy intensity, 54, 57, 58 Energy-related CO2 emissions, 301, 307, 323 Energy scenarios, 61, 301 Energy supply, 53 Energy transition, 188 Entropy, 175, 176 Environmental administration, 19 Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), 105 Environmental Kuznets curve, 80 Environmental legislation, 43 Environmental pollution transition, 225 Environmental radioactivity, 308 Environmental Systems Analysis, 377 Environment & society, 151 Essence of space, 173 Essence of time, 182 Estimation of land use changes, 339 Euclidean space, 389 European Union (EU) accession, 277 best practice guidelines, 37 environmental reporting, 37 Twinning Project, 93, 95, 227, 284, 354 Evolution, 5 Evolutionary dynamics, 201, 397 Evolutionary economics, 393, 396 Evolutionary paradigm, 188 Evolutionary path, 75 Evolutionary pattern, 45 Evolutionary phase, 211 Evolutionary procedure, 189, 199 Evolutionary space, 190, 195, 200, 226 Evolutionary system, 67, 187 Evolutionary theory, 277 Evolutionary time, 77, 84, 90 Evolutionary turn, 188 Extensive magnitudes, 349, 351

Index F Factor decomposition, 59 Fallout, 28, 29, 31–33, 255, 256, 259, 261, 262, 265, 266, 272 Fertiliser effect, 295 Fields in space, 175, 177, 181 First law of geography, 161, 164 Five-level game, 361 Food demand, 71, 85, 314, 319, 325, 329, 333, 338, 339 Food mix, 49 Food production, 68, 82, 312, 313, 316–320, 324, 326, 329, 332, 333, 335, 336, 338 Food supply, 314, 316, 319, 323, 325, 338 Forecasting, 190, 201 Formula architecture, 349 Formulaic comprehension, 178 Fossil energy, 53, 68 Four social dimensions, 109 Fuel mix, 55, 58 Fukushima, 255, 256, 261 Functional dimensions, 128 Functional interdependence, 33 Functionalism, 161 Functional landscape, 31 Functional map(s), 28, 33, 123, 129, 133, 215, 224, 226, 231, 308 Functional pattern(s), 119, 129–134, 212, 216, 217, 222, 304–306 Functional relationships, 304, 308 Functional space, 70, 118, 119, 123–126, 129, 132–141, 178–182, 192–193, 200, 202 Future as dialogue, 371 G Galilei, Galileo, 385 Gamma-spectrometry, 270 Gamma spectroscopy, 28, 30, 31 GCDB, see Global change data base GDP growth rate, 345 GDP per capita, 351 Geo-determinism, 386 Geodetic metric, 174, 179 Geodetic space, 152–155 Geofunctional dependencies, 273 Geographical perspective, 148, 165, 188, 243, 385 Geographic epistemologies, 245–246 Geographic Information Science (GIS), 163–165 Geographic Information System (GIS), 258, 272–273 workshop, 144 Geographic layer model, 151 Geographic literature, 153, 155 Geographic paradigm(s), 159, 165, 242, 385–388 Geographic perspective(s), 143–155, 243 Geographic subdisciplines, 152 Geographic thought, 159–170 Geographic views, 378 Geography, 6, 70, 71, 90, 215, 219, 222, 225, 227, 228, 385–398 Geography of landscapes, 150 Geography’s perspectives, 243–245 Geo-localisation, 38, 146, 155, 165 Geo-map, 129, 215, 231 Geopolitics, 386 Geo-positioning system (GPS), 144–146 Geo-visualisation, 284 GIS, see Geographic Information Science Global agricultural system, 316 Global carbon cycle, 291–292, 303, 306, 309 Global change 5, 188, 190, 195, 197, 200, 201, 215, 216, 219, 220, 224, 225, 228, 231, 312, 339

433 Global Change Data Base (GCDB) method, 67, 70, 74–77, 82, 84, 188, 190, 194, 195, 200, 201, 215, 224–226, 312, 345–348, 353 Global convergence, 198 Global deforestation, 45–51 Global development, 189–192, 195 Global dynamics, 216, 221, 228 Global Energy Analysis (GEA), 25 Global evolution, 188, 190 Global food system, 90 Globalisation, 184, 189–191, 197, 200, 357, 358, 363, 375, 378 Global patterns, 53–64, 70 Global scenarios, 311–341 Global structural change, 139–141, 219, 220, 227 Global studies, 186 curricula, 375 Global Studies Consortium (GSC), 375 Globe of geographic understanding, 138, 219–220, 227 Gould, Peter, 149, 155 Granularity, 395 Graphical pattern recognition, 217 Graz, 249, 254 Green revolution, 82, 330 Grounded theory, 195 Group formation, 108 Growing complexity, 220 Growth theory, 166, 388, 393 H Hägerstrand, Torsten, 387, 388 Haggett, Peter, 149, 154, 392 Harvey, David, 174, 387, 388 Heat loss, 28, 30, 31 Herbaceous biomass, 62, 309 Hettner, Alfred, 151 High Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM), 312, 313, 323–329, 338 Hiking paths, 246, 247 Historic deforestation, 45–51, 294 Historic maps, 161 History of geography, 160–170, 245, 385–398 Hnúšt’a, 280, 281, 289 Holo-perspectivism, 203, 204, 224, 228 Household sector, 249 Human geography, 149–152, 154 I Industry sector, 250, 252 Integrate other views, 372 Integration of opposites, 131 Intensity variables, 327, 328, 338 Intensive magnitudes, 349, 351, 353 Interdisciplinary university courses, 103 Internet age, 183, 184 Interperspective Information System (IIS), 222, 228, 369–371 Intrinsic property of space, 177 J Jelšava, 279–286, 289 Jhana, 227 K K-40, 28, 30, 32, 258, 259, 265, 273 Kant, Immanuel, 153, 386

434 Košice, 285–287, 289 Kuznets curves, 188, 194 L Länderkunde, 150 Landschaftskunde, 150 Land use change, 45, 50, 178, 215, 216, 311–341 transition, 76 Layered reality, 365 Learning efficiency, 182 Lefebvre, Henri, 148, 174, 179–180 Legal implementation, 38 Legal transposition, 38 Level of facts, 148 Level of functions, 148 Level of perspectives, 148 Liezen, 260 Linguistic turn, 161, 164, 387 Logical chain, 71, 79, 85–89 Long-term development, 332 Long-term trends, 68, 73, 76, 90, 216, 312, 392 M Mach, Ernst, 176 Magritte, René, 197 Managing transitions, 211 Manifoldness, 136–138, 141, 178, 218–221, 224, 228 Map global awareness, 369 Map of paths, 246 Map of social procedures, 110 Mapping approaches, 127, 128, 131, 138, 141, 212, 217, 219 of facts, 214 of functions, 214 paradigm, 135 of perspectives, 211, 222 social procedures, 357–377 strategy(ies), 76, 77, 90, 214, 223 Map time-space, 357 Matrix multiplication models, 301 Maximal biomass use, 301 Maximum biomass fuel growth, 301 MEDIDA-PRIX, 105 Mega-trend, 216, 228 Mental maps, 387 Mental model, 122 Meta-geography, 202–203, 219, 224–227 Metaphysics, 187 Metatheory, 212, 220, 227 Meta-trend, 220, 222, 227, 228 Meteorology, 139, 150, 277 Methodological cube, 127, 130, 214, 217–220, 228 Methodological landscape, 130, 132, 218–220, 228 Methodology, 212, 213, 216–217, 225, 228 Metric for space, 167–169 Metric of distance, 173, 183 Mineralogy, 28, 31, 33, 36, 263, 270–272 Ministry of Environment, 93 Minkowski distance, 183 Model architecture, 303 Modelling strategy, 322, 330, 335–338 Mono-causal, 217 Montmorillonite, 32–34, 267, 270–273

Index Morphogenetic field, 181 Multi-causal, 211 Multi-dimensional space, 211 Multi-disciplinary, 376 Multi-perspectivism, 224 Multiperspectivistic, 202–204 Multiple correlation(s), 28, 311 analysis, 271 Municipalities, 25, 344 Municipal policy, 249 Muscovite, 32–34, 271–273 Musical notes, 357 Musical score, 110, 111, 357 Mutually constitutive, 190 N NAMEA project, 343 Natural areas, 291 Nature of space, 357 Nature of time, 357 Nearness in space, 178–180 Negotiation game, 103–107, 111, 358, 371 Net carbon flow, 295 New spaces, 173, 174 Non-linear mapping, 169 Noosphere, 191, 392, 398 O Opportunity for processes, 182 Organic content, 28, 30, 31 P Paradigmatic evolution, 357 Particle size distribution, 28, 258, 267, 270 Path dependency, 311 Paths in evolution, 339 Paths of development, 194, 198, 239 Pattern analysis, 334 recognition, 70, 77, 90, 144, 148, 188, 190, 192, 201, 212, 213, 217 shift, 150 Peer review, 104, 112 processes, 357 Perceive perspectives, 357 Perception, 189, 190, 195–196, 200–203 of structures, 195 Perspective, 118, 123, 128, 135, 141 Perspectiveless vision, 203, 224, 228 Physical distance, 154 Physio-geography, 150 Phytomass, 291, 303, 304 Plant productivity, 291 Policy evaluation, 93 Policy making tool, 93 Political transition, 187 Population growth, 87–89, 343 Population maps, 53 Population scenarios, 53 Population transition, 188 Possibilism, 385 Possibilistic phase, 161 Postmodernism, 388

Index Postmodernity, 388 Post-structuralism, 385 Post-structuralist geography, 159 Potential communication, 395 PPGIS, see Public participation geographic information systems Pre-accession adviser (PAA), 37, 38 Predetermined world, 164, 196 Pressure on land, 311 Pre-structured world, 121 Principal component analysis, 28, 30, 31 Production of meaning, 163, 195 Provider of distance, 175, 178 Public participation geographic information systems (PPGIS), 164 Pyramid of sciences, 211 Q Quantitative revolution, 387 R Radioactive burden, 255 Radioactive caesium, 28, 29, 266, 272 Radioactive deposition, 27 Radioactivity evaluation, 255 Radionuclide adsorption capacity, 255 Radioprotection, 255 Ratzel, Friedrich, 386 Reachability, 168, 192, 196 Recursive definition of space, 196 Reflectivity, 177, 396–397 Regional geography, 150, 152 Regional potential, 53 Regression(s), 28, 31, 77 analysis, 270 Relative agricultural productivity (RAP), 312–315, 320, 322–325, 327, 328, 334, 338, 339 Representational space, 148, 173, 192, 202 Representations of space, 179–180, 222 Restructuring of space and time, 184 Rhythmised communication, 357, 358 Rhythmised social procedure, 104 S Salzburg, 19–25, 257–260 Salzkammergut, 260 Saturation processes, 332 Saturation state, 77 Scenario generator, 311–341 Scenario method, 355 Scenario writing, 343–355 Science of complexity, 162, 244 Science of structures, 162 Second law of thermodynamics, 176 Sectoral GDP, 98, 99 Sectoral structure, 250 Sediment(s), 28, 29, 31–35 radioactivity, 259 Self-creation, 191 Self-localisation, 141 Self-organising, 226 Self-referenced reality, 177, 289 Self-referenced structure building, 113 Self-referential system, 391–392 Sequences of manifoldness, 219

435 Set-aside areas, 332 SGC, see Surfing Global Change Sheldrake, R., 181 Shift of economic sectors, 188, 197 Simulation game, 110 Site selection, 290 Siting, 277–290 Slovak Hydro-meteorological Institute (SHMU), 38, 39, 41, 42, 283, 289 Slovak Meteorological Journal, 38, 43 Slovak Ministry of Environment, 43 Slovak Republic, 38, 39, 41, 43, 277–279, 286–288 Slovenia, 16, 93–96, 100, 123, 133, 213, 377 Social diagrams, 361 Social dynamics, 103, 109, 110 Social landscape, 155 Social map, 154, 155 Social mapping, 103–113, 357–378 Social relation, 190 Social space, 190–193 Social state variables, 108 Socio-economic database, 312, 313, 330, 334 Socio-economic megatrends, 339 Soil carbon depletion, 304 Soil depth profile, 35 Soil layers, 265 Soil organic carbon, 236, 238 Soil-plant transfer, 28 Soil radioactivity, 265, 269 Soil science, 273 Soja, E.W., 174, 183 Space of perception, 195, 200 of relations, 119, 126, 141 Space-less communication, 184 Spatial autocorrelation, 194, 198–202, 215 Spatial biomass patterns, 307–309 Spatial change, 387 Spatial concept, 389 Spatial diffusion, 162 Spatial distance, 174, 177 Spatial dynamics, 389 Spatial fields, 174, 177, 180 Spatiality, 174, 177, 180 Spatial metrics, 167, 193, 395–398 Spatial patterns, 119, 123, 129–133, 141, 149, 155, 212, 215, 220, 222 Spatial perspective, xxxi Spatial practices, 148, 180, 182 Spatial standpoint, 118, 125 Spatial structure, 149, 154, 189–191, 193 Spatial theory, 227 Spatial turn, 165 Spatio-temporal dynamics, 392–394 Spatio-temporal structures, 190 State space, 33, 124, 125, 129, 153, 175, 181, 225, 301, 367, 389 Static truth, 217 Statistics of communication, 358–363 Structural development, 181 Structural dynamics, 214, 216 Structuralism, 161 Structural shift, 74–77, 346–348 Structural similarity, 181 Structural transitions, 188, 199, 216, 217, 225, 226, 228 Structural variables, 313, 325–328 Structures, 214, 216, 217, 224–228 of causality, 127

436 Structurogenesis, 398 Styria, 260 Surfing Global Change (SGC), 103–113, 357–360, 363, 371–373 Systemic parameters, 42 System state, 88 System transitions, 84, 89 T Tajikistan, 144–147 Target value, 397 Team building, 372 Techno-socio-economic evolution, 198–201 Temporal autocorrelation, 194, 198 Thematic landscape, 105, 109 Theories of development, 190, 197 Thermodynamics, 175 Thirdspace, 174 Time dependency, 126, 127, 141 Time-distance, 192 Time-geography, 387, 389 Time series, 68–70, 77, 80, 81, 90 Time-space, xxix, xxxi, xxxv, xxxvi, 135, 136, 139–141 compression, 174 Tobler, Waldo, 161, 163 Top-down method, 253, 254, 344, 349 Topographical relevance, 38 Traffic sector, 289 Trans-disciplinary, 108, 150, 151, 224, 241 Transfer factor, 27–31, 33, 34, 258, 269–271, 273 Transition of legal systems, 43 Transition of system states, 225 Transition phase, 77 Transport restrictions, 63 Travel distance, 246, 247 Travel function, 178, 179 Travel intensity, 246 Travel time, 182 Trend diagram, 77, 78, 89, 90, 215 Trend extrapolation, 314, 345 Trend projections, 250, 354 Triangle inequality, 183 Turning point of paths, 8

Index Twinning project, 37, 38 Type of space, 179, 183, 184 U Ukraine, 190 Unequal exchange, 166 Unit time step, 182 University didactics, 367 Urban environment, 21 V Vernadsky, Vladimir I., 198, 199 Villach, 22, 23, 250, 252–255 Virtual spaces, 183, 184 Vision, xxiii–xxviii W Wallerstein, Immanuel, 165 Waste water, 350 Water bodies, 93, 94, 350, 353 Water demand, 93–100, 349, 350, 355 Water discharge, 350, 351 Water Framework Directive (WFD), 93–98, 344, 345, 349–351 Water policy, 94 Water pollution, 96 Water quality, 93–100 Water sheds, 94 Water supply, 93–100 Water use, 349–351 Weathering stage, 30 Web-based learning, 363 What is space, 188, 367, 368 What is where, 161 Wind rose(s), 38, 40, 283, 285, 288 Woody biomass, 54, 60, 61, 63, 306, 309 World systems theory, 165, 166 X X-ray diffractometry, 28, 30