Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth 9780226209319

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Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth

Studies in Income and Wealth Volume 51

National Bureau of Economic Research Conference on Research in Income and Wealth

Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth

Edited by

Stanley L. Engerman and Robert E. Gallman

The University of Chicago Press Chicago and London

The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London © 1986 by the National Bureau of Economic Research All rights reserved. Published 1986 Paperback edition 1992 Printed in the United States of America 95 94 93 92 5 4 3 2

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Long-term factors in American economic growth. (Studies in income and wealth; v. 51) Includes indexes. 1. North America-Economic conditions. 2. United States-Economic conditions. I. Engerman, Stanley L. II. Gallman, Robert E. III. Series. HCI06.3.C714 vol. 51 330 s [330.973] 86-11408 [HC95] ISBN 0-226-20928-8 (cloth) ISBN 0-226-20929-6 (paperback)

§

The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Information Sciences-Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48-1984.

National Bureau of Economic Research Franklin A. Lindsay, chairman Richard Rosett, vice-chairman Martin Feldstein, president

Geoffrey Carliner, executive director Charles A. Walworth, treasurer Sam Parker, director offinance and administration

Directors at Large Moses Abramovitz Andrew Brimmer George T. Conklin, Jr. Jean A. Crockett Morton Ehrlich Martin Feldstein Edward L. Ginzton David L. Grove George Hatsopoulos

Walter W. Heller Saul B. Klaman Franklin A. Lindsay Roy E. Moor Geoffrey H. Moore Michael H. Moskow James J. O'Leary Robert Parry

Peter G. Peterson Robert V. Roosa Richard N. Rosett Bert Seidman Eli Shapiro Stephen Stamas Donald S. Wasserman Marina v.N. Whitman

Directors by University Appointment Marcus Alexis, Northwestern Charles H. Berry, Princeton James Duesenberry, Harvard Ann F. Friedlaender, Massachusetts Institute of Technology J. C. LaForce, California, Los Angeles Paul McCracken, Michigan James L. Pierce, California, Berkeley

Nathan Rosenberg, Stanford James Simler, Minnesota James Tobin, Yale John Vernon, Duke William S. Vickrey, Columbia Burton A. Weisbrod, Wisconsin Arnold Zellner, Chicago

Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations Carl F. Christ, American Economic Association Robert S. Hamada, American Finance Association Edgar Fiedler, National Association of Business Economists Robert C. Holland, Committee for Economic Development Douglas Purvis, Canadian Economics Association Douglass C. North, Economic History Association

Rudolph A. Oswald, American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations James Houck, American Agricultural Economics Association Albert Sommers, The Conference Board Dudley Wallace, American Statistical Association Charles A. Walworth, American Institute of Certified Public Accountants

Directors Emeriti Arthur Burns Emilio G. Collado Solomon Fabricant

Frank Fetter Thomas D. Flynn Gottfried Haberler

George B. Roberts Willard L. Thorp

Since this volume is a record of conference proceedings, it has been exempted from the rules governing critical review of manuscripts by the Board of Directors of the National Bureau (resolution adopted 8 June 1948, as revised 21 November 1949 and 20 April 1968).

To Raymond Goldsmith and to the memory of Simon Kuznets, pioneers of quantitative economic history

Contents

Prefatory Note

xiii

1. Introduction Stanley L. Engerman Robert E. Gallman

I.

THE NATIONAL PRODUCT

2. New Estimates of Gross National Product, Canada, 1870-1926: Some Implications for Canadian Development M. C. Urquhart Comment: J. H. Dales 3. Measuring the Transaction Sector in the AunericanEconomy, 1870-1970 John Joseph Wallis Douglass C. North Comment: Lance E. Davis

II.

95

CAPITAL AND WEALTH

4. The United States Capital Stock in the Nineteenth Century Robert E. Gallman Comment: Raymond W. Goldsmith

ix

9

165

x

Contents

5. Choices, Rents, and Luck: Economic Mobility of Nineteenth-Century Utah Households J. R. Kearl Clayne Pope Comment: Lee Soltow 6. Inheritance on the Maturing Frontier: Butler County, Ohio, 1803-1865 William H. Newell Comment: Lee Soltow Reply: William H. Newell III.

215

261

POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE

7. Rudimentary Contraceptive Methods and the American Transition to Marital Fertility Control, 1855-1915 Paul A. David Warren C. Sanderson Comment: Michael R. Haines 8. New Results on the Decline in Household Fertility in the United States from 1750 to 1900 Jenny Bourne Wahl Comment: Michael R. Haines 9. Nutrition and the Decline in Mortality since 1700: Some Preliminary Findings Robert William Fogel Comment: Peter H. Lindert 10. The Female Labor Force and American Economic Growth, 1890-1980 Claudia Goldin Comment: Susan B. Carter 11. Population and Labor in the British Caribbean in the Early Nineteenth Century B. W. Higman Comment: Stanley L. Engerman Comment: Gerald Friedman

307

391

439

557

605

xi

Contents

12. Revised Estimates of the United States VVorkforce, 1800-1860 Thomas Weiss Comment: Stanley Lebergott Reply: Thomas Weiss

IV.

641

SECTORAL STUDIES

13. Productivity Growth in Manufacturing during Early Industrialization: Evidence from the American Northeast, 1820-1860 Kenneth L. Sokoloff Comment: Jeffrey G. Williamson

14. Output and Productivity in Canadian Agriculture, 1870-71 to 1926-27 R. M. McInnis Comment: Gavin Wright 15. Growth and Productivity Change in the Canadian Railway Sector, 1871-1926 Alan G. Green Comment: Albert Fishlow

16. Long-Term Trends in State and Local Finance: Sources and Uses of Funds in North Carolina, 1800-1977 Richard Sylla Comment: Lance E. Davis

679

737

779

819

List of Contributors

869

Author Index

873

Subject Index

879

Prefatory Note

This volume contains the papers and discussion presented at the conference on Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth held in Williamsburg, Virginia, on March 22-24, 1984. Funds for the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth are provided to the National Bureau of Economic Research by the National Science Foundation; we are indebted for its support. We also thank Stanley L. Engerman and Robert E. Gallman, who served as co-chairmen of the conference and editors of this volume. Executive Committee, March 1984 F. Thomas Juster, chairman Orley Ashenfelter Christopher Clague Martin David W. Erwin Diewert Robert T. Michael

John R. Norsworthy Eugene Smolensky Helen Stone Tice Robert J. Gordon, NBER representative Zvi Griliches, NBER representative

Volume Editors' Acknowledgments Kathi Smith handled local arrangements for the meetings on which this volume is based, Mark Fitz-Patrick prepared the papers for the press, and Annie Spillane skillfully advised the editors. Lance E. Davis, Peter H. Lindert, and Gavin Wright served as referees and offered exceptionally insightful comments and suggestions, while the discussants were unusually responsible and helpful. The editors give their thanks to these contributors to the volume and to the principal contributors, the authors of the papers. xiii

1

Introduction Stanley L. Engerman and Robert E. Gallman

The present volume differs from its recent Income and Wealth predecessors in two respects. The first is the breadth of its topic, LongTerm Factors in American Economic Growth. Narrowly defined analytical subjects (e.g., The Measurement of Economic and Social Performance, Vol. 38, New Developments in Productivity Measurement and Analysis, Vol. 44, and The Measurement of Labor Costs, Vol. 48) have been the norm. The second is that its papers are concerned with the historical process of economic change. Although historical papers have appeared previously (see, e.g., Vol. 46) and for a time seemed to be becoming a common feature (see Vol. 33 and 34), most Conference volumes have not had a historical dimension. This is surprising in view both of the concern of the Conference's founders-particularly Raymond Goldsmith and Simon Kuznets-with the measurement and analysis of long-period change and of the contributions economic history can make to analyzing problems that have long engaged the Conference. Two preceding volumes-owing in considerable measure to the encouragement of Goldsmith and Kuznets-are exceptions: Trends in the American Economy in the Nineteenth Century (Vol. 24) and Output, Employment, and Productivity in the United States after 1800 (Vol. 30). Both address broad subjects in the field of economic growth; both resulted from collaborative meetings of the Economic History Association and the Conference, in which economic historians played prominent roles. The Planning Committee for the first, held in Williamstown Stanley L. Engerman is the John H. Munro Professor of Economics and professor of history at the University of Rochester, and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Robert E. Gallman is Kenan Professor of Economics and History at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

1

2

Stanley L. Engerman/Robert E. Gallman

in 1957, consisted of Harold F. Williamson (chairman), Stanley Lebergott, and John E. Sawyer; the resulting volume was edited by William N. Parker. The Planning Committee for the second, held in Chapel Hill in 1963, comprised Parker (chairman), Richard A. Easterlin, and Raymond W. Goldsmith; Dorothy S. Brady edited the published papers. Most students of the subject find the origins of the new economic history--cliometrics-in these two meetings. Cliometrics has two branches, one with a strong national accounts orientation, the other stressing, more generally, the use of economic theory and econometrics in the study of historical problems. Both branches were represented at Williamstown and Chapel Hill, but true to the leading interests of the Conference at that time, only the first is represented in Volumes 24 and 30. The remaining papers were published elsewhere, notably in the proceedings issue of the Journal of Economic History, but also in other JEH issues, in the Journal of Political Economy, and in other places. l Among these papers were two hortatory and influential pieces by Alfred H. Conrad and John R. Meyer on how economic history should be practiced, one ("Economic Theory, Statistical Inference, and Economic History," published in the December 1957 Journal of Economic History) arguing in the abstract, the other ("The Economics of Slavery in the Ante-bellum South," Journal of Political Economy, April 1958) by way of a case study. The latter, with Robert W. Fogel's "A Quantitative Approach to the Study of Railroads in American Economic Growth" (Journal of Economic History, June 1962), launched a heated discussion over methods in the study of economic history. The present volume is a lineal descendant of Volumes 24 and 30, the kinship showing clearly in its principal features. These consist of an abundant display of primary evidence (or the results of the manipulatiori of primary evidence) organized for long reaches of time, and frequently presented within the framework of the national accounts. (See, e.g., the papers by Urquhart, Green, McInnis, Weiss, Sylla, and Gallman, for examples of the last characteristic; examples of the first two are to be found in virtually all of the papers in this volume.) But kin are never identical and frequently far from it; Volume 51 has features that distinguish it from its predecessors. The papers that are organized within the general framework of the national accounts either fill gaps left by Volumes 24 and 30 (see the papers by Sylla and Green), offer replacements for series appearing in the previous volumes (Urquhart, McInnis), or set afoot plans to extend existing series into new temporal periods (Gallman) or geographic regions (Weiss). The paper by Richard Sylla employs archival materials and devises methods of assembling the evidence drawn from them into a coherent

3

Introduction

description of the fiscal activities of state and local governments, and, in addition, contributes to the fiscal history of North Carolina. It proposes ways of handling nineteenth-century state and local evidenceevidence that has rarely been treated systematically-and urges a general assault on state archival materials, thereby accepting the challenge laid down almost twenty years ago by Lance Davis and John Legler ("The Government in the American Economy, 1815-1902: A Quantitative Study," Journal of Economic History, December 1966). If the Sylla study is replicated for other states, one of the major gaps in the quantitative record of United States economic change will be filled. A set of such records for a wide variety of states would also permit potentially fruitful comparative analyses. The Green and McInnis papers are drawn from a major study of Canadian economic growth in the latter part of the nineteenth century and the early part of the twentieth. The papers consider changes in output and productivity in railroads and agriculture. In addition to their significance to the reinterpretation of Canadian economic history, they open opportunities for comparative analysis (which they, in some measure, exploit) with the papers by Fishlow, in Volume 30, and by Towne and Rasmussen and Gallman in Volume 24. Urquhart's paper, deriving from the same project as Green's and McInnis's, a project under the general direction of Urquhart, offers a new, detailed, carefully assembled set of estimates of Canadian national product. These estimates are linked with the official series, which begins in 1926, and are intended to replace the series from the path-breaking Firestone study of a quarter of a century ago (see Firestone's paper in Vol. 24). Urquhart and his discussant, John Dales, suggest ways in which the new work may influence the interpretation of Canadian economic growth, but their exchange is only the beginning of what promises to be an animated discussion. The Green, McInnis, and Urquhart papers report on a project drawing to a close; Weiss's paper describes the first steps in a new project intended to supply estimates of the labor force at the state level and at decadal intervals in the nineteenth century. Weiss plans to use Stanley Lebergott's procedures (perhaps in modified form) in his estimations, and he describes the tests he conducted on them and on the Lebergott estimates. As Weiss had expected, these tests demonstrated the sturdiness of Lebergott's original work. However, they also gave Weiss reason to revise Lebergott's sectoral distribution of his aggregate series, revisions that have implications for our understanding of early nineteenth-century economic growth. Gallman's paper contains new estimates of the aggregate capital stock and its components, 1840-1900, at decade intervals, including com-

4

Stanley L. Engerman/Robert E. Gallman

prehensive estimates of the value of agricultural land improvements. The series eventually will be extended to the early nineteenth century. They are readily linked with Goldsmith's twentieth-century series. The papers of Volume 51 that follow a national accounts form of organization thus combine with the papers of Volumes 24 and 30 to form a quantitative description of the scale and structure of the United States and Canadian economies in the nineteenth century. 2 Although the story is still incomplete (for example, these volumes contain very little on finance), it is nonetheless remarkably full. Most of these papers provide series that link with twentieth-century series, permitting analysis of economic change over very long periods. One may hope that future meetings of the Conference will continue to fill out systematically the quantitative record of these two national economies. Not all of the Volume 51 papers are organized on a national accounts basis, however. The two streams of cliometrics, separated in the publication of the proceedings of the Williamstown and Chapel Hill meetings, are rejoined here. Many of the Williamsburg papers have both the micro focus and the highly analytical character of papers (such as the Conrad and Meyer piece on slavery) presented at the Williamstown and Chapel Hill meetings but omitted from Volumes 24 and 30. In addition, many depend on samples drawn from large rich sources of primary micro data, a change that reflects the computational revolution that has taken place since the meeting that led to Volume 30. The first important step in this direction had, in fact, been taken in the period between the Williamstown and Chapel Hill meetings. The University of North Carolina Library, at the behest of William Parker, assembled microfilms of the manuscript census of population, agriculture, and industry for the American South in the mid-nineteenth century. Parker's goal was to draw a matched sample (matching entries from the agricultural, slave population, and free population schedules) to enable him to study the Southern cotton economy. At that time the University of North Carolina's computer facilities consisted of a Univac 1105, a vacuum tube instrument with computational power modestly inferior to a 1984 IBM personal computer. Under the circumstances, Parker's plan must be regarded as bold-indeed, audacious-as well as innovative. The projects from which at least seven of the papers in Volume 51 are drawn (those by Newell, Kearl and Pope, Fogel, Sokoloff, Wahl, Weiss, and Gallman) make some use of the manuscript census, and large samples figure in most of them. The manuscript census had been known and used before Parker came on the scene, of course, but large samples could not be handled effectively without modern computing facilities. Other samples of micro data also contribute to the Volume 51 papers. The enormous genealogical collection at Salt Lake City plays a central

5

Introduction

role in the Kearl and Pope, Fogel, and Wahl papers. Newell and Kearl and Pope use tax and probate records (in the latter case following in the footsteps of Alice Hanson Jones in American Colonial Wealth, 2d ed., 3 vols. [New York: Arno Press, 1977]); Sokoloff, the McLane Report on manufacturing in 1832; Fogel, military, school, and shipping records; Goldin, city directories; David and Sanderson, the Mosher sample dealing with the sexual behavior of middle-class women; Higman, plantation records, slave registrations, and records of slave compensation claims. These new forms of evidence have opened new topics, untreated in Volumes 24 and 30 and having to do chiefly with population and human development. The Fogel paper is concerned with the timing, pace, and determinants of the modern decline of mortality. As David and Sanderson point out, most research on the United States fertility transition has been concerned with demand-side phenomena. Their paper treats the supply side: the modes of behavior and the devices that led to lower levels of fertility. Wahl and Newell are both interested in the influence of one generation on the next: Newell in the intergenerational transmission of wealth, Wahl in the intergenerational transmission offertility patterns. Kearl and Pope, who have elsewhere explored intergenerational mobility, here focus their attention on intragenerational mobility. Sokoloff uses micro data from the manuscript census and the McLane Report to describe and explain patterns of widespread productivity change in manufacturing in the early decades of United States modernization, change more dramatic than previous scholarship had suspected. Finally, Volume 51 addresses a number of important conceptual topics. Claudia Goldin considers the impact on United States economic growth of the shift of female work activities from the home to the market. In doing so, she enters a domain that William Parker, in his introduction to Volume 24, argued was a difficult one in which to conduct quantitative work. Goldin pushes forward with imagination and skill. While Robert Fogel is chiefly concerned with mortality, his work has led him to proffer an alternative, sensitive index of human welfare, one that, he tells us, is able to capture changes in well-being missed by standard indices such as per capita income or the real wage rate. Moreover, this index is also available for periods of time for which systematic wage and income data are unavailable. John Wallis and Douglass North take up a topic that has long engaged the attention of students of growth (see, e.g., Simon Kuznets, Economic Change [New York: Norton, 1953], Ch. 6; William D. Nordhaus and James Tobin, "Is Growth Obsolete?", Studies in Income and Wealth, Vol. 38): the extent to which the rise of transaction costs has offset the benefits of economic growth. Their contribution to the subject-the first part of a

6

Stanley L. EngermanlRobert E. Gallman

larger project-is to define transaction costs, to measure the principal United States costs of this type, and to show how far the deduction of such costs affects the United States national product and the long-term rate of growth. Volume 51, then, is a descendant of Volumes 24 and 30, but with characteristics peculiar to itself. These three volumes, together with the historical papers from Volumes 33, 34, and 46, constitute a very substantial quantitative historical record. Gaps, however, remain. There is little on the financial sector. While four of the papers treat Canada and the British West Indies, neither the Dominion nor the Caribbean receives all the attention it deserves, and there are no papers on any other part of the world. In the United States colonial America is virtually unrepresented, although a substantial volume of quantitative work has been completed and more is under way. Opportunities for further useful historical volumes are emerging. One may hope that the time span between the Williamsburg meetings and the next set of meetings with a historical orientation will be shorter than the interval between Chapel Hill and Williamsburg.

Notes 1. One of them, Moses Abramovitz's "The Welfare Interpretation of Secular Trends in National Income and Product," was clearly concerned with a subject of interest to the Conference, but Abramovitz chose to place it in Bernard Haley's festschrift: The Allocation of Economic Resources: Essays in Honor of Bernard Francis Haley. 2. The Gallman and Weiss paper prepared for Volume 34 should also be added to the list. Read with the Volume 24 paper by Gallman, it describes the sectoral distribution of economic activity in the nineteenth century.

2

New Estimates of Gross National Product, Canada, 1870-1926: Some Implications for Canadian Development M. C. Urquhart

This paper has its genesis in a project devoted to the preparation of national income· estimates for Canada for the years 1870-1926: the delimitation of the period is explained by the twin facts that the first Canadian census after confederation was taken in 1871 and that the official estimates of the national income of Canada begin in 1926. The estimates are now complete-just barely. In this paper, I examine some of the consequences of the availability of the new data for the interpretation of Canadian economic development in the period covered by the estimates. In my discussion I barely scratch the surface, largely because the preparation of the estimates themselves absorbed nearly all of my time until very recently. Before getting on with the main task I should say just a word about the new estimates. I shall be brief at this juncture, even though it is perhaps fair to say that they are the main contribution of this paper. The estimates comprise: annual estimates of gross domestic product, at factor cost by industrial sector, and of gross national product at market prices, all in current prices; annual estimates of gross national product at market prices in constant dollars; annual estimates of government expenditure on goods and services, by level of government; annual estimates of the main components of the balance of international payments, a large part of which has been newly estimated; annual estimates of capital formation in residential construction throughout the period and of producers' durables from 1870 to 1895, which, together with new capital formation estimates for nonresidential investment prepared by Statistics Canada, provide a new series for gross M. C. Urquhart is the Sir John A. Macdonald Professor of Political and Economic Science in the Economics Department of Queen's University, Ontario, Canada.

9

10

M. C. Urquhart

domestic capital formation for the entire period. They are the product of a collaborative work by seven of us in academia, assisted by at least a score of research assistants, over a decade, mostly on a spare-time basis. I had hoped myself to be pretty much chairman of the board, but it did not work out that way, with the result that I must take responsibility for large parts of the new estimates as well as for the delays in their production. The division of responsibility for the variou~ parts of the estimates is given in appendix 1. As for the quality of the new estimates, I have considerable confidence in them, comparatively speaking, which is not to say that they do not have limitations. But then, which country's estimates do not? The estimates have been prepared from a mass of data. The basic source information, frequently hitherto untapped, proved to be substantially better than we had expected it to be. And we have put a good deal of effort into developing processes that make the greatest feasible use of that information. Having said this much, I hasten to add, as I am sure everyone knows, that the basic information was considerably less in quantity and quality than that on which the official estimates for Canada, beginning in 1926, are based. Ultimate judgment of the quality of the estimates must come, of course, from others than those of us who were engaged in the project. A general statement of the sources of the data is given in appendix 2; a detailed statement would be of such volume as to be unmanageable on this occasion. I do not intend to proceed with a detailed discussion of the basis of the estimates but rather to see what inferences, if any, can be easily made from them about the nature of Canadian economic development. However, given that the estimates are the most important part of the paper, I present them immediately. They are given on an annual basis because the annual data contain much information, useful to my later musings, that would be submerged in annual averages. Table 2.1 presents gross domestic product (GDP) at factor cost, by industry, and gross national product (GNP) at market prices. For all industries but two the data are given on an annual basis; the industry groups, "wholesale and retail trade" and "community, business and personal services," have been given only for census dates and for 1926, the first year of the official accounts, these being the years for which primary data are available and there being no satisfactory specific annual interpolaters. The aggregate GDP at factor cost was interpolated between census years and to 1926 on the basis of the sum of those series for which annual estimates are available-the latter make up by far the larger part of GDP. Table 2.2 presents data on gross capital formation broken down by a number of categories. As has been stated already, our project's contribution to this material is limited to the estimates for residential con-

(continued)

1120 392180

4034 388146

24550 412696

5412 358838

23715 382553

8000 21959 5268 1756 3587 3438 203

7000 20756 4595 1589 3441 3480 200 21176

1027 364250

6960 306 3362 5354 89406 505 21000 22609

5790 211 2921 4431 76983 399 20000 20000

391060

145281

143797

26454 363223

1871

1870

27029 447254

4991 420225

1718 425216

423498

10000 26609 6086 2230 3908 3978 223

7669 516 4249 5507 98954 641 26300 22014

147381

1872

28456 485543

7039 457087

5409 458654 29114 487768

1230 464126

462896

10000 28769 7914 3076 4476 4800 263

9257 998 5186 4762 107930 778 32000 23777

154516

1874

1451 464063

462612

10000 28209 7989 2548 4202 4428 243

9175 867 4775 5436 123997 744 28700 23372

144490

1873

Gross National Product, Canada (Thousands of Dollars)

Agriculture Forestry (excluding agriculture) Hunting, trapping Fisheries Mining Manufacturing Manufactured gas Construction Transportation Electric light & power Corrlmunications Banking & finance Residential rents Federal government Provincial government Municipal services Education, public Universities Wholesale & retail trade Community, business, and personal service GDP (old official basis) Public revenues from resource royalties GDP (new basis) Less: net interest & dividends paid abroad GNP at factor cost Indirect taxes less subsidies GNP at market prices

Table 2.1

27773 452452

8192 424629

864 432871

432007

8000 27725 8689 3058 4748 5120 283

8184 1047 4596 6109 97479 813 29000 19690

146516

1875

27967 421670

9079 393703

1040 402782

401742

28913 434696

9804 405783

415587

999

414588

9000

26779 8474 2890 5340 5935 323

9000

7244 894 5330 5237 93173 562 19500 19323

144466

1877

27123 8782 2933 4986 5355 303

7101 1047 4936 5906 84232 848 22700 19849

139172

1876

29268 409649

10047 380381

807 390428

389621

8000 26515 8385 2604 5395 5900 343

6565 850 5868 4736 83725 534 17300 21454

134193

1878

32677 445127

11993 412450

862 424443

423581

26290 7723 2607 5482 6105 363

9000

5911 752 6007 5385 86996 825 17400 21249

158421

1879

38236 481954

14286 443718

1340 458004

36895 456664

10000 27275 7980 2541 5586 6198 383 31976

42535 568689

14727 526154

1871 540881

539010

12000 28654 8404 2704 5711 6221 420

7923 1101 6978 5404 122923 847 22400 27929

197021

159339 5908 1019 6540 5289 103615 719 20400 25001

1881

1880

(continued)

Agriculture Forestry (excluding agriculture) Hunting, trapping Fisheries Mining Manufacturing Manufactured gas Construction Transportation Electric light & power Communications Banking & finance Residential rents Federal government Provincial government Municipal services Education, public UDiversities Wholesale & retail trade Community, business, and personal service GDP (old official basis) Public revenues from resource royalties GDP (new basis) Less: net interest & dividends paid abroad GNP at factor cost Indirect taxes less subsidies GNP at market prices

'Iable 2.1

586489

1663 588152

16846 571306

40221 611527

590448

1982 592430

15745 576685

42200 618885

17961 514066 40463 554529

40432 585177

1483 532027

530544

14000 29689 12436 3013 6554 7045 566

17291 544745

1379 562036

560657

14000 30112 11091 2984 6205 6733 530

14000 30687 10259 3014 6067 6580 493

13000 31080 9240 2882 5904 6339 456

906

34000 31301

44196 560733

22199 516537

1675 538766

537061

15000 28986 11249 3186 6788 7268 603

9343 1130 8385 7500 133241 1281 25500 32168

8136 1101 8090 6250 127817 1166 25700 28672

8685 924 8044 6065 132910 950 38000 31015

9297 745 7640 5498 148958

8940 798 7459 5740 142493 769 3()()()() 29051

158063

165035

173396

185086

204892

1886

1885

1884

1883

1882

46434 611076

24817 564642

2021 589459

49770 630304

24687 580534

2739 605221

602482

548 18000 35496 11250 3451 7766 7501 676

526 17000 33892 11297 3423 6954 7152 640

587438

10170 1280 8143 9155 148915 1361 31600 36177

170638

1888

9458 1246 8347 8083 141622 1467 30200 33604

175819

1887

49561 655760

26920 606199

2388 633119

630731

636 19000 36580 11117 3957 8447 7663 713

10697 1134 8031 10348 156984 1506 34200 36320

177122

1889

49017 685419

29904 636402

2080 666306

60143 664226

936 745 18000 37493 11416 3904 8635 7987 749 53052

40460

10933 992 8279 12350 171691 1705 30100

184656

1890

50253 703505

30313 653252

2564 683565

681001

11105 985 8682 14729 172454 1642 31200 39840 1012 855 2()()()() 38724 11565 4388 9505 8285 786

189108

1891

51676 700285

648609

31156

3649 679765

676116

12285 165317 1715 28600 42429 1089 921 22000 41267 11818 4119 9202 8552 804

8668

11422 1013

189499

1892

50257 682408

31951 632151

3193 664102

660909

11575 1084 9623 14505 158575 1715 26200 42234 1166 1162 21000 42442 12275 4091 9437 8479 821

181588

1893

Agriculture Forestry (excluding agriculture) Hunting, trapping Fisheries Mining Manufacturing Manufactured gas Construction Transportation Electric light & power Communications Banking & finance Residential rents Federal government Provincial government Municipal services Education, public Universities Wholesale & retail trade Community, business, and personal service GDP (old official basis) Public revenues from resource royalties GDP (new basis) Less: net interest & dividends paid abroad GNP at factor cost Indirect taxes less subsidies GNP at market prices (continued)

1895

167159

10973 1119 9517 15010 137998 1532 21100 38658 1320 1162 22000 44544 11397 4142 9443 9280 857

611950

2481 614431

29998 584433

48985 633418

1894

172555

10732 1113 9790 14296 145114 1728 21300 42044 1241 1162 22000 44012 12085 4334 9572 9234 839

631077

2353 633430

31380 602050

49361 651411

53204 640817

30499 587613

2341 618112

615771

12162 1132 9809 16500 138751 1366 2()()()() 43488 1395 1162 24000 46537 11987 4523 9763 9694 874

157150

1896

56315 717022

31195 660707

3833 691902

688069

12697 1046 10656 21126 156082 1285 23300 45107 1471 1162 25000 46138 12631 4573 10295 9737 892

186915

1897

59175 769372

34450 710197

3849 744647

740798

12318 1008 9625 28607 169539 1255 3()()()() 52077 1546 1512 28000 49252 14166 4687 10540 9741 910

188867

1898

64631 825982

35673 761351

4150 797024

792874

13020 1084 10504 36481 179188 1195 30400 55589 1625 1600 32000 53288 14107 4726 10725 9939 928

200280

1899

66907 907357

37120 840450

4740 877570

84469 872830

13137 1127 10649 47713 200146 1309 32500 62083 1700 1818 39000 60453 15672 5240 11330 10158 945 65553

207828

1900

63794 2124 2192 41000 65529 17259 5462 12419 10687 963

74694 990663

39540 915969

4634 955509

81806 1119599

41493 1037793

4878 1079286

1074408

46800

73574 2652 2548 48000 68857 17575 5872 13508 11043 1126

40900

950875

14749 1399 10640 44548 243475 1238

280116

1902

14439 1143 12155 47922 203941 1219

243414

1901

86907 1178150

42485 1091243

5886 1133728

1127842

15109 1508 11291 42201 259771 1469 59100 84534 3234 2981 57000 72380 19456 6012 14825 11662 1289

267048

1903

93366 1205816

45765 1112450

6300 1158215

1151915

15594 1504 11454 40682 254645 1755 67500 86345 4985 3429 45000 77769 23380 6146 16504 12715 1452

278782

1904

94545 1361543

49639 1266998

5702 1316637

1310935

308439 1899 78500 92760 6023 4164 56000 87312 23934 6565 17458 13435 1615

44686

17263 1611 14089

303838

1905

(continued)

Agriculture Forestry (excluding agriculture) Hunting, trapping Fisheries Mining Manufacturing Manufactured gas Construction Transportation Electric light & power Communications Banking & finance Residential rents Federal government Provincial government Municipal services Education, public Universities Wholesale & retail trade Community, business, and personal service GDP (old official basis) Public revenues from resource royalties GDP (new basis) Less: net interest & dividends paid abroad GNP at factor cost Indirect taxes less subsidies GNP at market prices

18ble 2.1

152088 2022810

128577 1838343

118421 1653793

119341 1728406

107216 1525885

86239 1870722

77439 1709766

68628 1535372

60586 1609065

56030 1418669

8653 1956961

6816 1787205

7267 1604000

7082 1669651

5677 1474699

148359 1948308

1780389

1596733

1662569

1469022

22995 2774 14359 61975 452122 2078 158500 153591 9503 10401 73000 132764 32556 15465 27888 20776 2431 204444

21187 2276 14177 52979 406284 1921 124100 132869 9512 9306 75000 120417 27759 13450 24722 18976 2268

18049 1652 12356 52388 349336 2141 113800 131485 8553 8807 76000 115264 30782 11628 23030 17399 2105

19795 1812 12651 53077 401828 2146 113100 132799 7660 8223 77000 105533 27448 10165 21078 15387 1942

19466 1947 12961 49306 363617 1679 91000 108661 6790 4860 71000 96564 18265 8288 19439 14333 1779

402327

402554

335689

354676

318796

1910

1909

1908

1907

1906

179874 2233165

105303 2053291

9218 2158594

2149376

219970 2493876

118759 2273906

9202 2392665

2383463

25329 3249 16059 75072 516339 3181 215600 207943 16103 13467 104000 162753 42137 20904 34715 25235 3088

477958

469654 25066 2641 16119 57026 469566 2203 178200 174855 13786 11387 92000 142948 37194 17792 29838 22229 2594

1912

1911

225237 2651472

141168 2426235

9877 2567403

2557526

24341 3683 16039 81903 517791 3535 219600 246670 17995 15795 125000 181142 50515 22849 36692 27274 3582

517812

1913

224992 2448579

153271 2223587

9874 2376558

2366984

24048 2318 15409 74860 447723 3042 172800 222008 20611 17507 114000 182980 79830 21050 40525 30464 4075

490900

1914

252469 2688579

173251 2436110

7776 2609361

2601585

23453 2823 17252 81724 475178 1953 126500 190025 22080 17549 93000 181795 151371 20588 46275 34428 4569

686638

1915

296627 3242722

172294 2946095

7415 3118389

3110974

26208 3666 19269 107252 664054 3067 116300 229617 23861 20127 104000 186371 239223 19589 48725 34491 5062

771679

1916

330415 3991872

173505 3661457

8048 3834962

3826914

37850 5021 25593 117201 960072 3653 122000 260507 27551 22503 131000 203125 264918 23135 50274 36595 5556

935133

1917

Agriculture Forestry (excluding agriculture) Hunting, trapping Fisheries Mining Manufacturing Manufactured gas Construction Transportation Electric light & power Communications Banking & finance Residential rents Federal government Provincial government Municipal services Education, public Universities Wholesale & retail trade Community, business, and personal service GDP (old official basis) Public revenues from resource royalties GDP (new basis) Less: net interest & dividends paid abroad GNP at factor cost Indirect taxes less subsidies GNP at market prices

1919

943779

49270 12716 28042 113996 1042248 4660 148500 334555 32963 32031 163000 242426 172761 31316 58518 47073 6543

4106737

11612 4118349

178467 3939882

427499 4367381

1918

906176

42285 8188 29239 139388 1084026 3129 109700 256400 30858 25344 132000 218207 324396 25409 54540 41168 6050

4053209

8969 4062178

176060 3886118

375364 4261482

510708 5060886

186029 4550178

14081 4736207

303245 4722126

63740 11536 25134 147166 1271069 6202 184600 381516 37353 31035 221000 283216 103221 39681 66621 57043 7037 439432

1042279

1920

502713 4073825

210928 3571112

14978 3782040

3767062

37689 9876 19118 115178 873027 7558 175400 347987 39495 34156 193000 314351 98038 43758 76081 68458 7335

677845

1921

539181 4233945

225335 3694764

13790 3920099

3906309

48229 12376 21489 127971 865311 8640 182400 355327 43718 34380 169000 331245 89769 49251 75599 74549 7632

720736

1922

572375 4555266

231279 3982891

13175 4214170

4200995

46876 11507 21480 136465 954824 8811 215900 363993 46733 35418 157000 344563 87800 50666 75631 77606 7930

778527

1923

547796 4501525

241200 3953729

15829 4194929

4179100

58588 11159 22198 137769 899777 6793 193900 345071 51635 37216 168000 352049 87632 49026 75941 77443 8228

783897

1924

578989 4995748

243394 4416759

16974 4660153

627000 5345315

208000 4718315

18009 4926315

506000 4908306

11807 27547 154000 1067402 9174 203200 405179 69877 46688 209000 359551 91954 50964 78671 81111 8825 534000

4643179

66000

10855 23919 132514 953898 8759 198200 368982 59354 39815 183000 357484 91128 51564 75134 79032 8526

927356

1926

66000

991144

1925

16

M. C. Urquhart

'Dable 2.2

Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Current DoUan (Millions of DoUan)

Total Housing Total GovemManufac- Railway & Other Construc- Private Public ment Grand Year turing Telegraph Business tion Business Schools Total Total 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915

5.4 6.1 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.1 5.9 5.6 5.9 8.9 14.6 19.7 18.9 14.1 12.3 12.5 13.5 14.1 14.3 13.8 12.0 11.8 11.2 10.5 10.5 12.6 14.4 19.1 24.9 30.2 37.2 42.8 54.9 55.5 57.3 61.4 72.1 70.0 74.2 97.9 123.2 155.8 157.6 108.7 85.9

12.4 27.0 29.3 25.3 24.1 15.3 8.7 6.4 8.7 14.1 18.3 44.0 57.5 72.5 33.8 23.7 23.4 20.7 22.1 15.3 14.2 12.0 12.9 8.8 6.6 7.4 10.7 18.6 15.8 18.7 21.7 24.3 33.2 37.6 48.3 63.4 103.9 103.0 92.9 109.5 125.2 157.0 175.4 126.6 97.7

11.7 13.2 14.2 15.2 14.6 14.2 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.7 18.2 22.1 24.3 20.0 16.9 18.1 20.9 25.8 24.0 21.8 28.4 26.8 29.0 21.8 27.0 25.3 33.0 42.4 42.7 51.4 76.8 90.1 104.1 105.6 107.8 128.3 146.3 137.7 165.4 204.1 230.7 282.1 268.6 197.0 130.4

23.2 31.2 27.5 29.6 35.3 30.5 23.8 19.6 17.4 17.4 20.6 18.2 14.3 12.0 14.4 16.6 22.7 31.7 38.2 41.8 39.7 42.2 39.2 30.4 22.2 19.4 20.2 23.5 26.9 28.0 25.6 28.3 32.8 42.9 54.5 71.0 83.9 83.2 78.2 101.2 131.0 148.2 171.0 155.7 108.6 61.4

60.7 73.8 79.7 82.4 75.8 59.4 48.5 43.6 46.1 58.3 69.3 100.1 112.7 121.0 79.6 77.0 89.5 98.8 102.2 90.6 96.8 89.8 83.5 63.3 63.5 65.5 81.6 107.0 113.3 125.9 164.0 191.0 235.1 253.2 284.4 337.0 408.5 388.9 433.7 542.5 627.3 765.9 757.3 540.9 375.4

0.7 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.3 3.6 4.1 6.2 7.1 7.5 9.1 11.0 14.8 16.7 18.9 16.8

1.5 2.8 2.9 8.0 7.3 9.0 11.6 10.4 9.0 6.9 7.1 5.7 7.4 8.0 6.4 7.5 8.6 5.6 7.5 6.2 6.8 6.1 7.5 10.2 13.2 7.2 7.5 10.1 11.9 13.0 14.6 16.0 18.4 21.6 24.0 18.6 33.0 42.0 35.8 45.3 55.0 69.4 96.5 100.5 78.5

60.0 62.9 77.9 84.3 92.5 85.2 70.1 61.5 55.3 56.0 66.1 77.2 106.8 121.0 129.9 86.9 85.5 99.4 105.9 111.8 98.6 105.3 97.4 92.4 74.9 78.0 73.8 90.1 118.5 126.4 140.2 180.2 208.6 255.2 277.1 312.0 359.7 447.7 438.0 477.0 596.9 694.2 850.1 870.5 660.3 470.7

17

New Estimates of Gross National Product, Canada, 1870-1926

18ble 2.2

(continued)

Total ManufacYear turing

Housing Total GovernConstruc- Private Public ment Railway & Other Grand Telegraph Business tion Business Schools Total Total

1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926

49.0 76.0 86.5 95.1 115.5 100.0 50.5 102.9 83.1 52.2 84.3

13.5.0 143.4 100.4 96.2 152.1 99.7 92.1 141.5 136.7 119.1 129.8

190.6 263.1 247.8 286.9 335.9 273.1 227.7 300.3 252.6 298.5 304.0

60.2 58.1 59.1 96.6 127.3 136.2 180.9 176.0 164.0 168.2 184.2

434.8 540.6 493.8 574.8 730.8 609.0 551.2 720.6 636.4 638.0 702.3

11.6 11.6 10.7 14.9 20.7 26.2 27.6 31.3 22.1 21.7 19.7

.54..5 39.6 44.9 70.8 87.7 93.8 90.7 109.5 102.9 107.4 84.4

.500.9 591.8 549.4 660.5 839.2 729.0 669.5 861.5 761.4 767.1 806.4

struction and the estimates of investment in machinery and equipment before 1896 which are necessary to obtain estimates oftotal fixed capital formation, 1870-95. The other estimates are those of Statistics Canada. They have been prepared as a part of Statcan's program to obtain capital stock estimates for 1926 and later years by the perpetual inventory method (Statcan 1981). Table 2.3 presents estimates of government expenditure on goods and services by federal, provincial, and municipal government and by public schools. The last is included because, in Canada, public education has been, in the main, organized under local school boards and, in our period, financed mainly by property taxes. Table 2.4 presents data on the main components of the balance of international payments, both current and capital account. A great deal of work has been done on these data for this project. Some parts of earlier estimates have been used, but much is new. And everything has been rechecked and reexamined. Now to return to the main task, my scheme, in broad terms, is to address conflicting interpretations of Canadian development from 1870 to the mid-1920s that have been a subject of controversy. One interpretation of Canadian development, the traditionalist view, is that, at least until the Second World War, the pace of Canadian economic growth was determined by the presence or absence of export staples. The best-known expositer of this view is perhaps H. A. Innis in his works on the fur trade and the codfisheries. And Arthur Lower has emphasized the exploitation of the forest. It was W. A. Mackintosh, however, who dealt most specifically and in greatest detail with the

18

M. C. Urquhart Govemment Expenditure on Goods and Services (Millions

Table 2.3

of DoUan)

Year

Federal

Provincial

1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915

7.0 8.9 9.6 12.5 14.9 14.6 15.6 13.9 13.8 13.2 13.3 14.3 15.6 20.8 19.4 32.4 18.8 21.7 20.1 17.9 18.5 20.7 19.6 20.8 20.5 19.8 21.5 22.3 24.7 25.7 27.5 32.1. 31.5 41.8 43.8 46.3 46.8 53.0 61.3 56.6 61.6 74.8 78.5 101.2 173.7 257.5

1.8 2.9 3.6 4.0 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.2 4.6 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.5 6.1 5.9 7.1 7.2 7.6 7.0 7.0 7.2 6.8 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 8.2 8.5 9.1 9.3 9.5 10.2 12.9 16.3 19.5 22.3 25.8 30.5 35.9 40.1 36.8 33.2

Municipal 4.7 4.9 5.8 6.2 8.5 8.6 9.6 10.9 10.6 10.0 9.5 9.6 9.3 10.2 10.6 10.5 11.1 11.8 11.6 13.0 12.9 14.0 13.4 14.2 15.3 16.2 14.6 15.4 16.8 17.7 18.9 20.9 22.7 25.2 28.6 30.6 31.1 38.9 45.0 44.6 52.4 58.2 69.9 82.9 89.2 89.1

Public Education 5.0 5.0 6.2 7.1 7.9 8.3 8.3 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.6 10.0 10.0 10.6 11.3 11.5 11.8 11.9 11.7 12.6 12.6 13.1 13.0 13.4 13.5 13.9 14.8 15.3 16.1 18.0 20.2 21.8 25.2 28.6 31.0 34.8 39.4 46.0 50.4 56.6 59.4

Total 18.5 21.7 25.2 29.8 36.2 36.4 38.2 38.2 37.3 36.0 35.5 36.6 38.4 45.0 44.3 57.6 45.4 49.6 48.2 49.3 50.1 54.1 51.9 53.7 55.6 55.4 56.6 58.1 62.3 64.3 68.5 76.3 78.6 92.4 99.9 107.3 112.6 133.4 154.4 154.5 174.6 202.9 230.3 274.6 356.3 439.2

19

New Estimates of Gross National Product, Canada, 1870-1926

Table 2.3

(continued)

Year

Federal

Provincial

Municipal

Public Education

Total

1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926

361.4 361.1 457.9 515.9 325.1 281.1 247.8 188.0 168.8 174.0 169.5

31.6 36.6 40.1 51.7 70.3 76.0 85.4 85.6 81.7 85.1 82.8

82.2 79.2 88.8 104.8 108.0 118.6 119.9 127.0 125.0 128.9 119.4

54.3 53.9 61.6 173.1 91.2 110.9 119.8 127.3 117.9 119.4 120.0

529.5 530.8 648.4 745.5 594.6 586.6 572.9 527.9 493.4 507.4 491.7

period from Confederation (1867) to the 1930s, and many others elaborated on his work. The traditionalist view was that the period from 1870 to 1900 was a period of laggard growth because Canada had lost external markets for wheat and forest products with the evolution of free trade in Britain and the end of reciprocity with the United States (in 1866) and with the substantial replacement of activities based on wood, wind, and water, such as wooden ship building and other construction, by those based on steam and iron (or steel). The loss of markets for forest products stemmed directly from the decline in use oflumber and timber; the loss of the grain market stemmed indirectly from the competition with grain from the Middle West of the United States made more than competitive by the presence of the new railways. Then, from the midor late 1890s onward, when some cost and price changes occurred into which we need not go, the development of new export staples and most especially of wheat as the country's great export staple, supplemented later by the development of base and precious metals and by pulp and paper, led to a period of unprecedented growth. In fact, so the argument goes, the emergence of Canada as a developed economy stems from the emergence of wheat and to a lesser degree pulp and paper and base and precious metals: the agricultural expansion provided a market for industrial products for the two big central provinces, Ontario and Quebec, and this led to the economic integration of the various polities that had joined together at Confederation and afterwards. l Following the Second World War a twofold questioning of this view took place. On the one hand, it was argued that there was a considerable growth in manufacturing output and in productivity in manufacturing even from 1870 to 1900 and that the process of growth in manufacturing from 1900 onward was merely a continuation of what went before. On

Total current Capital (short term) Total current & capital

Debits Imports (adjusted) Imports of gold coin & bullion Freight Tourist payments Migrants' capital Noncommercial remittance Insurance Interest & dividends

1600 1459 2400 1195

1151 80787 13290 7350 13519 114944

700 1328 2100 804

850 72167 3394

5957 2500 658 378 5185 114944

5463 2400

553 129 6262 96026 5005 101031 114944

100267

81220

25470 101031

72981

1871

66385

1870

785 335 5701 132476 2431 134907

7498 2600

115557

35699 134907

710 91189 8019

3000 1636 2600 1466

81777

1872

140559

835 805 6265 140559

6985 2500

123169

856 95086 22742 289 22443 140559

1200 1712 3300 2409

85609

1873

755 655 7877 140129 5580 145709

7399 2400

121044

17454 145709

838 89746 38509

1900 1616 3300 1303

80789

1874

Canada's Balance of Intemational Payments (Thousands of DoUars)

Credits Exports (adjusted) Exports of gold coin & bullion Freight Tourist receipts Migrants' capital (net) Noncommercial remittance Insurance Interest & dividends Total current Capital (long term) Capital (short term) Net errors & omissions Total current & capital

'DIble 2.4

122858

696 339 9364 122858

5579 2200

104679

1173 86578 14709 3303 18267 122858

3100 1536 3300 688

76781

1875

113527

10777 113527 111133

624 666

6141 2200

93785

4328 973 88513 10900 1913 12200 113526

1600 1522 3300 711

76080

1877

489 10054 111133

2200

4660

93064

975 84453 16303 36 10341 111133

2100 1523 3300 419

76137

1876

583 967 10905 105831 2532 108363

5492 2400

85484

14401 108363

858 82548 11414

2100 1480 3300 790

74020

1878

541 543 13003 103057 1762 104819

4772 2500

81698

3719 104819

1010 86838 14262

600 1549 4100 2109

77470

1879

550 1067 15402 117891 2409 120300

4607 2700

93565

6546 120300

1116 101397 12358

1800 1817 4100 1723

90841

1880

(continued)

Debits Imports (adjusted) Imports of gold coin & bullion Freight Tourist payments Migrants' capital Noncommercial remittance Insurance Interest & dividends Total current Capital (short term) Errors & ommissions Total current & capital

Credits Exports (adjusted) Exports of gold coin & bullion Freight Tourist receipts Migrants' capital (net) Noncommercial remittance Insurance Interest & dividends Total current Capital (long term) Capital (short term) Net errors & omissions Total current & capital

5676 3300 1179 817 16891 150640 584 151224

688 303 15777 135186 1918

137104

29450 151224

31.10 137104

5699 2900

1146 111464 10310

1050 108119 25775

122777

1500 1976 4100 3935

1600 1976 4100 612

109819

98807

1882

98782

1881

156212

1444 763 18021 150449 5763

6198 3200

120823

32409 156212

1175 105099 18704

1000 1851 4100 4425

92548

1883

138375

1946 958 18754 138375

5130 3200

108387

1463 98643 23927 5052 10754 138375

1200 1748 4700 2130

87402

1884

1946 1184 19172 131922 533 8177 140632

4549 3200

101871

140632

1211 93762 46870

400 1705 4700 494

85252

1885

142940

1869 643 23436 140531 2409

5693 3800

105090

10654 142940

1237 97086 35200

2000 1728 4700 1046

86376

1886

156663

1861 884 26175 146918 9745

5412 3800

108786

41087 156663

1358 99944 15632

800 1782 4700 2219

89085

1887

159386

2105 2024 29360 159386

6145 4100

1900 5561 3800 1987 1451 26532 150915 11900 1880 164695

115652

2440 105076 21334 569 32407 159386

4800 1797 4900 1270

89868

1889

109684

164695

1845 98177 66519

1763 4700 1704

88164

1888

166461

173671

1899 984 32336 164918 8753

5865 4100

800 5701 4100 2028 1735 32316 164116 2345

119736

41938 173671

2023 116686 15048

1400 2068 4900 2907

103388

1891

117435

39975 166461

2412 104014 22478

1890 4900 336

94477

1890

(continued)

Debits Imports (adjusted) Imports of gold coin & bullion Freight Tourist payments Migrants' capital Noncommercial remittance Insurance Interest & dividends Total current Capital (long term) Capital (short term) Errors & omissions Total current & capital

Credits Exports (adjusted) Exports of gold coin & bullion Freight Tourist receipts Migrants' capital (net) Noncommercial remittance Insurance Interest & dividends Total current Capital (long term) Capital (short term) Net errors & omissions Total current & capital

18ble 2.4

1600 6024 4300 1695 363 34722 166680 9624 176304

1662 793 33529 171145

9953

181098

35853 176304

30207 181098

3300 6072 4100

2771 124530 15921

2373 122266 28625

117975

2276 4900 777

2238 4900 859

121689

113806

1893

111896

1892

162483

4855

1768 556 34536 157628

4400

600 6095

109672

10071 162483

3156 121311 31101

II

2224 4700

111220

1894

159470

5636

300 6397 4500 187 1514 666 33349 153834

106921

316i7 159470

3351 121275 6568

2220 4700

111004

1895

173229

11208

2900 6361 5000 174 1311 952 34075 162021

111248

29446 173229

3576 133224 10559

2450 4700

122498

1896

6741 6313 185516

35219 172462

404

1352

7649 5300

122538

185516

205808

5312

1484 565 38744 200496

10148 5500

144055

9388 205808

4294 179697 16722

12900 3058 4500 2037

2900 2859 4700 39

4024 157480 28036

152908

1898

142958

1897

237202

40179 224940 1285 10977

46

1800

10983 5300

166632

42144 237202

4506 195058

2385

9600

22100 3068

153399

1899

2592 243757

42065 241166

2487

11142 4900

180572

285158

28699

44371 256459

3484

11068 5400

192136

27737 285158

214 4831 224260 33161

1196 4945 215547 25350 2860 243757

21500 3584 8000 6915

179216

1901

24800 3374 7000 5537

168695

1900

289727

3266

4335 3123 47472 286461

11981 6100

213450

22800 289727

5979 246560 20367

13700 3970 11000 13412

198499

1902

Total current Capital (short term) Errors & omissions Total current & capital (continued)

Debits Imports (adjusted) Imports of gold coin & bullion Freight Tourist payments Migrants' capital Noncommercial remittance Insurance Interest & dividends

Credits Exports (adjusted) Exports of gold coin & bullion Freight Tourist receipts Migrants' capital (net) Noncommercial remittance Insurance Interest & dividends Total current Capital (long term) Capital (short term) Net errors & omissions Total current & capital

7280

5640 1616 48595 309299

309299

345730

51206 324580 21150

12347 6900

12410

6000

246848

21 370933

32422 345730

370933

409246

11624 2661 62948 409246

15194 12900

14521 9400 9054 2734 55926 355148 15785

303919

263513

6918 290212 81306 12514 25215 409246

6287 262474 108438

4799 5441 234217 79091

235037

6110 242372 30290 16723 19914 309299

3900 4790 16800 18292

12500 4180 13300 17191

6500 3772 12800 12326

6800 3994 10500 15264

1906 239512

1905 209015

188580

1904

199704

1903

461327

17690 897 67004 461327

16080 13400

346256

6418 297814 69847 21824 71842 461327

1400 5011 16200 18258

250527

1907

539555

528570

19829 1409 86682 494968 33602

16131 16600

19100 13992 15100 17029 555 74173 447096 92459

354317

5288 528570

9243 338106 185176

2700 5622 19600 19825

281116

1909

307148

71577 539555

5545 290933 177045

5035 19200 9397

251756

1908

2344 600952

27014 874 96827 598609

4100 18783 21600

429411

600952

10587 352994 222072 25886

5708 24700 26639

285361

1910

726932

723482 3450

36056 1666 114855

21800 23882 25200

500023

189348 726932

9552 365049 172535

5907 26200 28023

295366

1911

871913

871913

47483 2711 128449

32550 29000

631720

9690 429712 277868 182 164151 871913

11300 6965 29400 24092

348265

1912

931165

912403 18762

55797 2403 150850

7400 30160 33200

632593

113384 931165

9682 491368 326413

8428 30500 21366

421392

1913

(continued)

Debits Imports (adjusted) Imports of gold coin & bullion Freight Tourist payments Migrants' capital } Noncommercial remittance Canadian expend free Insurance Interest & dividends Total current War finance, external Capital (short term) Net errors & omissions Total current & capital

Credits Exports (adjusted) Exports of gold coin & bullion Freight Tourist receipts Migrants' capital } Noncommercial remittance Insurance Interest & dividends Total current Capital (long term) Capital (short term) War finance, external Net errors & omissions Total current & capital

1llble 2.4

174080 1005723

995021

113400

30000 5700 182851 881621

5000 6100 163671 831643

1444015

100000 5000 186394 1262015 52600 129400

12300

11300

20100

113097 1444015

145500 29000

1005723

9400 101000 25000

60400

90583 995021

3600 14100 1235096 95823

80200 35000

2000 9600 815405 28633

3900 10400 578387 381836 21200 24300

19200

783825

18300

28200

14000 91700 53200

516370

70700 36600

22600 41100 29600

1039296

1916

521572

678205

1915

442587

1914

90156 1723489

175000 8300 192805 1520233 113100

18000

1700 139000 27000

958428

1723489

6600 19300 1656970 55720 10800

20000

64400

84100

1462570

1917

1670031

194960 1522231 119300 28500

8600

170000

21200

144100 30000

953372

69624 1670031

3200 18900 1546839 53570

21600

16300 83800 66100

1336938

1918

1593332

95000 14800 198467 1546032 25600 21700

12100

125600 47000

1053065

4450 1593332

20000 1531072 57811

2900

32200

15700 86900 73000

1300372

1919

50699 1751310

20000 19400 206929 1700611

10000

48400

170100

1225783

1751310

4800 20900 1545165 132745 42400 31000

40700

34200 114400 64200

1265965

1920

Debits Imports (adjusted) Imports of gold coin & bullion Freight Tourist payments Migrants' capital } Noncommercial remittance Canadian expend free Insurance Interest & dividends Total current War finance, external Capital (short term) Net errors & omissions Total current & capital

Credits Exports (adjusted) Exports of gold coin & bullion Freight Tourist receipts Migrants' capital } Noncommercial remittance Insurance Interest & dividends Total current Capital (long term) Capital (short term) War finance, external Net errors & omissions Total current & capital

31900 6500 13400 1127472 131453 27000 46800 1332725

36300 4100 19200 1148690 50516 144400 27900 1371507

14100 254000 1265967 15700 232834 1514500

9900

243579 1319175 12700 224682 1556557

9900

238736 1253453

79273 1332725

57470 1371507

9400

10600 230128 1314037

8400

16900

23100

99100 49100

840267

40900

121400 43900

891996

1514501

20700

63800 1556557

10500 12800 1341238 152563

37800

4600 83000 117000

1075538

1924

8100 12300 1375607 117150

38000

82200 89200 103300

1042507

1923

116500 43300

45300 94300

807417

78500 78900

42200 84300 68300

890409

918272

1922

894290

1921

92800 158350 1625227

18600 256894 1374077

20800 }

106400 55900

915483

1625227

1900

15700 13500 1567889 55438

37800 }

30000

15100 86700 128500

51800 129800 1719600

240000 1538000

121000

99000

105000

973000

1719600

2300

32000 1665000 52300

83000

152000

96000

1272000

1926

1270589

1925

26

M. C. Urquhart

the other hand, there was an attempt to show that the rents from wheat production produced by the populating of the prairies by 1910 were so small that settlement of the latter could have had little effect in the growth of per capita income that took place from 1900 to 1910. Both approaches downplayed the role of the staple. 2 It is not the aim of this paper to try to reconcile the contending views of Canadian growth or to try to pick a winner, if indeed there is O:le. But our data do provide a considerable amount of new information that has a bearing on the contending interpretations, and it is to these that we turn. I present the remaining material of this paper in three parts. First, some background facts, not new to this paper but of relevance to our material, are presented. Second, the relationships among the aggregates are examined. Third, the nature of changes in the structure of GNP are examined. 2.1 Background Facts A most important set of facts relates to the underlying population base and its growth. On one hand, Canada failed to retain the natural increase in its population in each decade from 1870 to 1900, despite having a substantial number of immigrants; on the other hand, it gained large numbers from net immigration in 1900-1921 (and to 1926). The relevant data are shown in table 2.5: it relates to the population 10 years of age and over, since only for them could estimates of survival from the last census be made-the natural increase, the immigration and emigration all apply to the 10 and over age groups. The loss from net out-migration in the 10-year and older age group in each decade from 1871 to 1901 averages 4.9% of the beginning population. Other data show that Quebec's net loss by migration of pop18ble 2.5

Population and Changes in Population 10 Years of Age and Over, by Decades, 1861-1931 (Thousands of Persons)

Decade

Population at End of Decade

Natural Increase

1861-71 1871-81 1881-91 1891-1901 1901-11 1911-21 1921-31

2630 3164 3628 4101 5528 6677 8169

563 619 669 654 711 916 1389

Immigration

Emigration

186 353 903 326 1782 1592

376 438 1108 507 1066 1360

Source: Historical Statistics of Canada, 1st ed., p. 22.

Net Migration -191 -85 -205 -181 +715 +233 +103

27

New Estimates of Gross National Product, Canada, 1870-1926

ulation was very high in both 1881-1891 and 1891-1901 and that insofar as they were nativeborn most of the migrants left the country; Ontario also lost large numbers, especially in 1891-1901, but a quite large part of the loss comprised migration of the nativeborn to Western Canada. By contrast, in 1901-11 the countrywide net inflow of migrants aged 10 years and over was of the same order as the natural increase in the same age group, and the net inflow remained substantial although smaller in the succeeding two decades. Supplementary data show that Quebec and the Maritime Provinces continued to lose population by migration-in this regard Quebec's relatively high rate of natural increase should be kept in mind-that the Prairie Provinces were big gainers in 1901-11 and 1911-21, that British Columbia was a big gainer in all three decades, and that Ontario also gained substantial numbers from net in-migration in all three decades, a point of which we shall see the relevance later. The figures for total population in Canada and the significant provincial groupings are given in table 2.6. While there are differing estimates of the labor force and its industrial distribution before 1901, the general lines of the division between agricultural and other pursuits are sufficiently accurate to be useful. The so-called gainfully occupied and the numbers engaged in agriculture are given in table 2.7. It should be noted at once that in 1900 the numbers in agriculture and total gainfully occupied are too low owing to the omission of a considerable number of unpaid farmers' sons from the count. A next "fact" concerns the railways in Canada. Of 1870, it can be said, with only slight exaggeration of fact, that the Canadian railways system was limited to a main line from north of Quebec City, through Montreal and Toronto to Sarnia (near Detroit) with a connection from Montreal to Portland, Maine, lines from the Niagara Peninsula and from Hamilton to Detroit, and a few short spurs from these lines; the Maritime Provinces had only 379 miles in 1867 at Confederation. RailTable 2.6

Population of Canada and Five Provincial Groups, Census Dates 1871-1931 (Thousands of Persons)

Year

Canada

Maritime Provinces

Quebec

Ontario

Prairie Provinces

British Columbia

1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931

3689 4325 4833 5371 7207 8768 10377

768 871 881 894 938 1000 1009

1192 1359 1488 1649 2006 2361 2875

1621 1927 2114 2183 2527 2934 3432

73 89 252 469 1343 1968 2367

36 49 98 179 393 525 694

Source: Historical Statistics of Canada, 1st ed., p. 14.

28

M. C. Urquhart

18ble 2.7

Total Gainfully Occupied and the Numbers Engaged in Agriculture, Census Dates, 1871-1921 (Thousands of Persons)

Year

Total Gainfully Occupied

Total Engaged in Agriculture

Proportion Engaged in Agriculture

1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931

1130 1378 1606 1783 2724 3164 3922

579 667 744 717 958 1041 1128

0.5124 0.4803 0.4633 0.4021 0.3517 0.3290 0.2875

Source: Historical Statistics o/Canada, 1st ed., p. 59; and R. M. McInnis, "Output and Productivity in Canadian Agriculture," in this volume; Firestone 1958, p. 184, for gainfully occupied in 1871. 18ble 2.8

Railway Track and Equipment, Selected Years, 1870-1925

Year

Miles of First Main Track in Operation

1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925

2617 4331 6858 10273 13151 15977 17657 20487 24730 34882 38805 40350

Number of Locomotives

Number of Passenger Cars

Number of Freight Cars

980 1157 1524 1771 2023 2282 2906 4079 5486 6030 5752

1000 1170 1655 2018 2658 2828 3006 4320 6326 6557 6839

20297 24079 38318 49356 56963 64979 86196 119713 201690 224489 224227

Source: Historical Statistics o/Canada, 1st ed., pp. 528, 532, 533.

way building played a major role in Canadian development from 1870 to the First World War both in the direct impact of the railway building on the economy and through its contribution to freight and passenger movement once it was built. Some measure of its impact is given by the miles of line in operation and the equipment in use which is given in table 2.8. We will return to the railways later. Finally, there is a question about the course of prices through this period and how movements in real GNP differ from those measured in current prices. Estimates of GNP measured in 1900 dollars along

29

New Estimates of Gross National Product, Canada, 1870-1926

with an implicit price index and real GNP per capita are given in table 2.9. The deflation of GNP in current prices was essentially done by two components. Gross domestic fixed capital formation in current prices broken into residential and nonresidential items was deflated by indexes of costs of capital goods appropriate to each of the items. All of the remaining part of the GNP was deflated by an index of consumer prices, part of which was constructed within this project. 5 The deflation procedure can probably be improved, but I have sufficient confidence in our findings that I do not expect further refinements in the deflation process to result in changes that would lead to any significant reinterpretation of the meaning of the data. In order to aid the interpretation of the data in table 2.9, certain growth ratios calculable from it are given in table 2.10 and for comparative purposes comparable growth rates are given for the United States. The entries are usually for decadal periods; however, the first entry in each panel is for 9 years and the final entry in panel C, real GNP per capita, is for 19 years. For both countries, the rates of growth of population are between the single years at the beginning and end of each period; for both countries, the rates of growth of real GNP are those between the averages of 3 years centered on the beginning and on the ending year of each period. I am most indebted to Robert Gallman for providing me with the estimates of the growth of real GNP and real GNP per capita in the United States from 1871 to 1900. We should note at once that there is a considerable arbitrariness in the growth rates that are obtained for each period determined by the choice of beginning and ending years of the period. Thus, if the first decade were made to end in 1882 and the second in 1892, the calculated growth rate for income in Canada for the first period would be raised and that for the second period lowered; or if we divide the decade from 1890 to 1900 into two parts, we can see from table 2.9 that all of the growth in per capita income took place between 1896 and 1900. It is important that we keep these properties of the data of table 2.10 in mind when we come to draw inferences from them. The main series of relationships among aggregates which utilize our new data and that appear to be relevant to the issues about the nature of Canadian development are given in table 2.11. The figures are given on an annual basis because the year-to-year movements themselves contain valuable information. The ratios are between values in current dollars. A few comments about the data of table 2.11 are in order. First, all of the absolute values from which the ratios are calculated appear in other tables and hence are not given here. Second, the gross fixed capital formation ratio includes public as well as private capital formation; the public component-budgetary capital formation-is ordi-

30

M. C. Urquhart

table 2.9

Gross National Product in Current and Constant DoUan and Real Gross National Product per Capita, 1870-1926

Year

GNP in Current Market Prices ($mm)

GNP in Constant (1900) Prices ($mm)

1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910

382.6 412.7 447.3 487.8 485.5 452.5 421.7 434.7 409.6 445.1 482.0 568.7 618.9 611.5 585.2 554.5 560.7 611.1 630.3 655.8 685.4 703.5 700.3 682.4 651.4 633.4 640.8 717.0 769.4 826.0 907.4 990.7 1119.6 1178.2 1205.8 1361.5 1525.9 1728.4 1653.8 1838.3 2022.8

369.5 385.9 382.8 419.3 427.8 417.1 391.1 416.5 402.6 441.8 462.1 527.0 547.2 545.7 592.0 556.3 559.4 579.0 616.1 620.9 657.4 679.9 676.2 666.9 700.6 698.9 680.7 757.2 786.5 857.8 907.8 984.1 1073.6 1115.1 1131.4 1248.2 1380.6 1456.0 1383.3 1520.4 1655.4

Implicit Price Index 1900 = 100

Population in Thousands of Persons

Real GNP per Capita in 1900 Dollars

104 107 117 116 113 108 108 104 102 101 104 108 113 112

3625 3689 3754 3826 3895 3954 4009 4064 4120 4185 4255 4325 4375 4430 4487 4537 4580 4626 4678 4729 4779 4833 4883 4931 4979 5026 5074 5122 5175 5235 5301 5371 5494 5651 5827 6002 6097 6411 6625 6800 6988

102 105 102 110 110 105 98 102 98 106 109 122 125 123 132 123 122 125 132 131 138 141 138 135 141 139 134 148 152 164 171 183 195 197 194 208 226 227 209 224 237

99

100 100 106 102 106 104 104 104 102 93 91 94 95 98 96 100 101 104 106 107 109 111 119 120 121 122

31

New Estimates of Gross National Product, Canada, 1870-1926

Table 2.9

(continued) GNP in Current Market Prices

GNP in Constant

(1900) Prices

Implicit Price Index

Year

($mm)

($mm)

1900

1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926

2233.2 2493.9 2651.5 2448.6 2688.6 3242.7 3991.9 4261.5 4367.4 5060.9 4073.8 4233.9 4555.3 4501.5 4995.7 5345.3

1770.7 1905.4 1979.8 1835.6 1964.4 2182.5 2273.2 2141.4 1994.9 1992.0 1800.3 2060.9 2194.0 2210.1 2450.3 2611.8

126 128 134 133 137 149 176 199 219 254 226 205 208 204 204 205

=

100

Population in Thousands of Persons

7207 7389 7632 7869 7981 8001 8060 8148 8311 8556 8788 8919 9010 9143 9294 9451

Real GNP per Capita in

1900 Dollars

246 258 259 233 246 273 282 263 240 233 205 231 244 242 264 276

narily less than 10% of the total, as may be seen from table 2.2. Third, the net capital inflow has been measured, for all years, by the current account balance on international account. Fourth, the implied domestic saving is simply the difference between the gross fixed capital formation ratio and the capital inflow ratio. Fifth, the export ratio and the government expenditure ratio are, respectively, for merchandise exports and for government expenditures on goods and services. Finally, the ratio of export prices to import prices, the terms of trade, are given to show the qualitative nature of the impact of international prices on real income in Canada. We are now in a position to examine the bearing of the data that we have considered on the matter at issue. I shall not go into the details of the way in which the traditionalists saw the staples as contributing to growth nor the arguments of the critics about the inadequacies of the traditionalists' explanations: such would take too much space. A well-rounded analytical statement and evaluation of the issues and contentions is given in Richard E. Caves's "Export-Led Growth and the New Economic History" in the Kindleberger festschrift (Caves 1971). Rather, I shall just examine the extent to which our data at least seem consistent with what the traditonalists or their critics would expect us to observe. Suffice it to say that in a period of expansion the traditionalists saw a growth of the export sector of the economy (the

32

M. C. Urquhart

18ble 2.10

Years

1871-80 1880-90 1890-1900 1900-1910 1910-20 1920-25 1871-80 1880-90 1890-1900 1900-1910 1910-20 1920-25 1871-80 1880-90 1890-1900 1900-1910 1910-20 1920-25 1871-90

Compantive Growth Rates of Canada and the United States (AU Growth Rates in Compound Rates Percent per Annum) Canada

A. Population 1.6 1.2 1.0 2.8 2.0 1.7 B. Total Real GNP 2.6 3.2 3.5 6.0 1.6 4.7 C. Real GNP per Capita 1.0 2.0 2.4 3.2 -0.4 2.9 1.5

United States

2.3 2.3

1.9 2.0 1.4 1.7 5.7 3.5 3.6 3.8 2.5 4.7 3.3 1.2

1.7 1.8 1.1 2.9 2.2

Source: For Canada, calculated from the data of table 2.9. For the United States, for 1871-1900, real GNP and per capita growth rates provided by Robert Gallman from data underlying his paper in vol. 30 of the Conference series; for 1900-1925, Kendrick 1961, pp. 298-99, and Historical Statistics of U.S., Colonial Times to 1970, p. 8.

high-productivity sector) lead to a more general expansion that permeated from the export sector to most other parts of the economy. For example, for the period 1895-1920, W. A. Mackintosh, in describing the main measured dimensions of growth-in which, incidentally, the high population growth was mentioned first-wrote: The most fundamental single characteristic of the period was a high rate of investment induced by improved expectations of profit from the exploitation of natural resources, which had been newly discovered, newly tapped by the extending railways, subjected to new productive techniques, or converted into profit possibilities by favourable shifts in costs and prices. Overwhelmingly most important were the wheat lands of the Prairie Provinces. Prospective profitableness in the exploiting industries created markets for other industries and for a time investment fed on itself. (Mackintosh 1939, p. 41) There remains one matter of contention that requires comment. The traditionalists did not elaborate on whether economic growth meant

33

New Estimates of Gross National Product, Canada, 1870-1926

Table 2.11

Ratios of Selected Aggregate Expenditure Items to GNP and Terms of Trade

Year

Capital Formation! GNpa

1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1899 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910

0.157 0.152 0.174 0.173 0.191 0.188 0.166 0.141 0.135 0.126 0.137 0.136 0.173 0.198 0.222 0.157 0.152 0.163 0.168 0.170 0.144 0.150 0.139 0.135 0.115 0.123 0.115 0.126 0.154 0.153 0.155 0.182 0.186 0.217 0.230 0.229 0.236 0.259 0.265 0.259 0.295

0.062 0.083 0.092 0.093 0.104 0.080 0.063 0.058 0.057 0.036 0.034 0.048 0.063 0.074 0.068 0.069 0.077 0.077 0.084 0.083 0.088 0.069 0.070 0.062 0.056 0.051 0.045 0.021 0.027 0.036 0.028 0.033 0.036 0.057 0.075 0.068 0.078 0.095 0.094 0.085 0.121

0.095 0.069 0.082 0.080 0.087 0.108 0.103 0.083 0.078 0.090 0.103 0.088 0.110 0.124 0.154 0.088 0.075 0.086 0.084 0.087 0.056 0.081 0.069 0.073 0.059 0.072 0.070 0.105 0.127 0.117 0.127 0.149 0.150 0.160 0.155 0.161 0.158 0.164 0.171 0.174 0.174

0.174 0.177 0.183 0.176 0.166 0.170 0.181 0.175 0.181 0.174 0.188 0.174 0.160 0.151 0.149 0.154 0.154 0.146 0.140 0.137 0.138 0.147 0.160 0.167 0.171 0.175 0.191 0.199 0.199 0.186 0.186 0.181 0.177 0.169 0.156 0.154 0.157 0.145 0.152 0.153 0.141

1911 1912 1913 1914 1915

0.311 0.341 0.328 0.270 0.175

0.160 0.177 0.159 0.114 0.025

0.151 0.166 0.169 0.156 0.150

0.132 0.140 0.159 0.199 0.252

(continued)

Capital Inflow/ GNPb

Implied Savings RatioC

Exports/ GNpd

Government Spending! GNpe

Export! Import Price Sf

0.048 0.053 0.056 0.061 0.075 0.080 0.091 0.088 0.091 0.081 0.074 0.064 0.062 0.074 0.076 0.104 0.081 0.081 0.076 0.075 0.073 0.077 0.074 0.079 0.085 0.087 0.088 0.081 0.081 0.078 0.075 0.077 0.070 0.078 0.083 0.079 0.074 0.077 0.093 0.084 0.086 0.091 0.092 0.104 0.146 0.163

0.68 0.66 0.72 0.76 0.78 0.82 0.82 0.89 0.88 0.86 0.86 0.91 0.93 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.99 1.06 0.99 1.01 2.00 1.05 1.05 1.08 1.13 2.06 1.09 1.09 1.07 1.00 1.02 1.06 1.07 1.05 1.03 1.05 1.04 1.06 1.14 1.14 1.12 1.13 1.11 1.04 1.15 1.24

34

M. C. Urquhart

Table 2.11

(continued)

Year

Capital Formation! GNpa

Capital Inflow/ GNP

Implied Savings RatioC

Exports/ GNP