Later Prehistoric and Roman Landscapes on the Berkshire Downs 9781407313665, 9781407322964

Table of contents :
Front Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Abstract
Acknowledgements
List of Contents
List of Figures
List of Tables
Common Abbreviations
Chapter One: The Bershire Downs: Overview to the Study
Chapter Two: Later Prehistoric and Romano-British Rural Landscapes - Visibility and Interpretation
Chapter Three: The History and Historiography of the Berkshire Downs
Chapter Four: The Cropmarked Landscapes: An Overview of the Lambourn Downs Mapping Project
Chapter Five: Historical Sources - Maps and Documents
Chapter Six: Enhancing the Data from the Lambourn Downs Mapping Project - Light Detection and Ranging (Lidar)
Chapter Seven: The Archaeology of Woodland
Chapter Eight: Settlement and Land Use: Geophysical Surveys
Chapter Nine: Repopulating the Land - The Evidence from Metal Detected Objects
Chapter Ten: The Segsbury Landscape - Evolution and Changing Perspectives
Appendices
References

Citation preview

BAR 612 2015 LEVICK LATER PREHISTORIC AND ROMAN LANDSCAPES ON THE BERKSHIRE DOWNS

B A R 612 Levick cover.indd 1

Later Prehistoric and Roman Landscapes on the Berkshire Downs Paula Levick

BAR British Series 612 2015 09/04/2015 10:04:53

Later Prehistoric and Roman Landscapes on the Berkshire Downs Paula Levick

BAR British Series 612 2015

Published in 2016 by BAR Publishing, Oxford BAR British Series 612 Later Prehistoric and Roman Landscapes on the Berkshire Downs © P Levick and the Publisher 2015 The author is grateful to the Marc Fitch Fund for financial support towards the production of this work The author's moral rights under the 1988 UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act are hereby expressly asserted. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be copied, reproduced, stored, sold, distributed, scanned, saved in any form of digital format or transmitted in any form digitally, without the written permission of the Publisher.

ISBN 9781407313665 paperback ISBN 9781407322964 e-format DOI https://doi.org/10.30861/9781407313665 A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library BAR Publishing is the trading name of British Archaeological Reports (Oxford) Ltd. British Archaeological Reports was first incorporated in 1974 to publish the BAR Series, International and British. In 1992 Hadrian Books Ltd became part of the BAR group. This volume was originally published by Archaeopress in conjunction with British Archaeological Reports (Oxford) Ltd / Hadrian Books Ltd, the Series principal publisher, in 2015. This present volume is published by BAR Publishing, 2016.

BAR PUBLISHING BAR titles are available from: BAR Publishing 122 Banbury Rd, Oxford, OX2 7BP, UK E MAIL [email protected] P HONE +44 (0)1865 310431 F AX +44 (0)1865 316916 www.barpublishing.com

/DWHU3UHKLVWRULFDQG5RPDQ/DQGVFDSHVRQWKH%HUNVKLUH'RZQV $EVWUDFW 7KLVZRUNZDVXQGHUWDNHQIRUWKHGHJUHHRI'RFWRURI3KLORVRSK\LQ$UFKDHRORJ\DW2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\¶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

$FNQRZOHGJHPHQWV $JUHDWPDQ\SHRSOHKDYHSOD\HGDSDUWLQPDNLQJWKLVUHVHDUFKSRVVLEOH )RUHPRVW , ZRXOG OLNH WR WKDQN P\ VXSHUYLVRUV *DU\ /RFN DQG &KULV *RVGHQ IRU WKHLU VXSSRUW DGYLFH DQG HQFRXUDJHPHQWDQGP\LQWHUQDOUHYLHZHUV%DUU\&XQOLIIHDQG'DYLG*ULIILWKVIRUWKHLUHQWKXVLDVPDQGIHHGEDFN 7KDQNVPXVWDOVRJRWR2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\¶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

/,672)&217(176

&KDSWHUV

L

$SSHQGLFHV

Y

/LVWRI)LJXUHV

Y

/LVWRI7DEOHV

[LL

$EEUHYLDWLRQV

[LLL

%LEOLRJUDSK\



&+$37(521(7+(%(5.6+,5('2:1629(59,(:727+(678'+/&@2IILFHU SHUVFRPP  7KH SUDFWLFH RI GHHS SORXJKLQJ LV DUFKDHRORJLFDOO\ GHVWUXFWLYH DQG ZLWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI WKH KLOOIRUWV KDV UHPRYHG DOO VXUIDFH WUDFHV RI IRUPHU VHWWOHPHQWV DQG H[WHQVLYHDQFLHQWILHOGV\VWHPV&RQYHUVHO\WKHDUHDKDV VHHQ OLWWOH QHZ GHYHORSPHQW DQG ZKLOH XSVWDQGLQJ PRQXPHQWV DUH HURGHG DQQXDOO\ QR QHZ LQIRUPDWLRQ LV FRQWULEXWLQJ WR WKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI WKLV ODQGVFDSH IURP GHYHORSHUIXQGHGDUFKDHRORJ\

&XUUHQWXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKLVODQGVFDSHRZHVPXFKRILWV LQWHUSUHWDWLRQWRZKDWVXUYLYHGWREHUHFRUGHGSULRUWRLWV ORVV WKURXJK PRUH UHFHQW DJULFXOWXUDO SUDFWLFHV ,Q RUGHU WR HQKDQFH WKH /'03 GDWD IXUWKHU DQG WR JDLQ D JUHDWHU XQGHUVWDQGLQJ DQG QHZ LQVLJKWV LQWR HDUO\ ODQGXVH DQG VHWWOHPHQW IUHVK RULJLQDO GDWD ZDV QHHGHG 7KH SULPDU\ DLP RI WKLV VWXG\ WKHUHIRUH ZDV WR GHWHUPLQH WR ZKDW H[WHQW DQG E\ ZKDW PHWKRGV LW ZDV SRVVLEOH WR UHFRQVWUXFW D SORXJKGDPDJHG ODQGVFDSH $ QXPEHU RI QRQLQYDVLYH WHFKQLTXHV ZHUH FKRVHQ VRPH RI ZKLFK DW WKH WLPH RI WKH VWXG\ ZHUH UHODWLYHO\ QHZ RU QRW DV \HW LQFRUSRUDWHG LQWR PDLQVWUHDP DUFKDHRORJLFDO UHVHDUFK 7KHVHZHUHXVHGDORQJVLGHHVWDEOLVKHGPHWKRGV0XFKRI WKH HDUOLHU UHVHDUFK RQ WKH %HUNVKLUH 'RZQV DV HOVHZKHUH XVHG D VPDOO QXPEHU RI LQGLYLGXDO ILHOGZRUN PHWKRGV WR VXSSRUW LQWHUSUHWDWLRQV IURP DHULDO SKRWRJUDSKV VXFK DV ILHOGZDONLQJ DQGRU H[FDYDWLRQ 7KLV VWXG\ SURYLGHG WKH RSSRUWXQLW\ WR DVVHVV WKH SRWHQWLDO RI DQ LQWHJUDWHG QRQLQYDVLYH DSSURDFK WR WKH LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI WKLV ODQGVFDSH DQG WR WHVW DQG EXLOG RQ HDUOLHU LQWHUSUHWDWLRQV 7KH UHVXOWV DOVR UDLVHG TXHVWLRQV QRW SUHYLRXVO\ FRQVLGHUHG DQG WKH HPHUJLQJ WKHPHV IRUPHG WKH IRXQGDWLRQ IRU QHZ OLQHV RI LQYHVWLJDWLRQ DV WKHVWXG\SURJUHVVHG 7KH FRQFOXVLRQV GUDZQ IURP WKHVH PHWKRGV DUH XVHG WR SODFH WKH HQYLURQV RI 6HJVEXU\ &DPS LQ SDUWLFXODU DQG WKH %HUNVKLUH 'RZQV LQ JHQHUDO ZLWKLQ WKHRUHWLFDO IUDPHZRUNVDQGWRFUHDWHDQDUUDWLYHIRUWKHHYROXWLRQRI ODWHU SUHKLVWRULF DQG 5RPDQR%ULWLVK ODQGXVH LQ WKLV UHJLRQ

7KH SUREOHP LV IXUWKHU H[DFHUEDWHG E\ D SRRU FHUDPLF VHTXHQFH 3RWWHU\ LV JHQHUDOO\ FRQVLGHUHG WR HQWHU RQWR WKHILHOGVWKURXJKWKHSUDFWLFHRIPDQXULQJ5KRGHV   DQG ZKHUH LW VXUYLYHV FDQ EH XVHG WR SURYLGH DQ



6HJVEXU\ &DPS ZKHUH WKH FKDON HVFDUSPHQW PHHWV WKH FOD\VRIWKH9DOHRIWKH:KLWH+RUVHDQDUHDLQYHVWLJDWHG E\7LQJOH DQGDVSDUWRI2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\¶V9DOH DQG 5LGJHZD\ 3URMHFW ,Q WKH VRXWK LW H[WHQGV DV IDU DV (UPLQ 6WUHHW WKH 5RPDQ URDG FRQQHFWLQJ 6LOFKHVWHU &DOOHYD $WUHEDWXP  ZLWK :DQERURXJK DQG &LUHQFHVWHU EH\RQGZKLFKOLHWKHULYHUJUDYHOVRIWKH.HQQHW9DOOH\ ,Q WKH HDVW LW LV SDUWLDOO\ GHILQHG E\ 2OG 6WUHHW QRZ D JUHHQ ODQH UHFRUGHG LQ WKH FKDUWHU ERXQGV RI $'  *HOOLQJ    ZKLFK IROORZV WKH OLQH RI WKH )DUQERURXJK:HVW ,OVOH\ SDULVK ERXQGDU\ WR WKH SUHVHQW GD\ ,Q WKLV FRQWH[W 6WU 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

:HVWZDUGVWKHVWXG\DUHDH[WHQGVDVIDUDVWKH/DPERXUQ 3DULVK ERXQGDU\ EH\RQG ZKLFK D QXPEHU RI LQYHVWLJDWLRQV DQG VXUYH\V KDYH EHHQ FDUULHG DQG WKHVH ZLOOEHGLVFXVVHGIXUWKHULQ&KDSWHU *HRORJ\7RSRJUDSK\DQG+\GURORJ\ 7KH %HUNVKLUH 'RZQV OLHV ZLWKLQ WKH 1RUWK :HVVH[ 'RZQV $UHD RI 2XWVWDQGLQJ 1DWXUDO %HDXW\ >1:' $21%@ ,W IRUPV SDUW RI D FUHWDFHRXV FKDON IRUPDWLRQ WKDWH[WHQGVDFURVVWKHFRXQWU\IURP'RUVHWWR+(5@3DVW6FDSHWKH$UFKDHRORJ\'DWD6HUYLFH>$'6@ DQGWKH3RUWDEOH$QWLTXLWLHV6FKHPH>3$6@

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a P RUPRUH

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

)LJXUH  FRPSDUHV 5KRGHV GLVWULEXWLRQ WR WKDW RI WKH /'03IRUWKHVWXG\DUHD7KHDGGLWLRQDOFRYHUSURYLGHG E\WKH/'03VKRZVWKHILHOGVWREHPRUHH[WHQVLYHWKDQ SORWWHG E\ 5KRGHV¶ DQG WKH GLYLVLRQV EHWZHHQ WKH LQGLYLGXDO ILHOG EORFNV OHVV ZHOOGHILQHG  FRQILUPLQJ 5KRGHV VXVSLFLRQ WKDW WKH ILHOGV IRUPHG SDUWV RI PRUH H[WHQVLYH V\VWHPV 7KH ILHOG EDQNV WKDW WUHQG

'DWD6RXUFHVDQG6RIWZDUH 7KH /'03 GDWD ZDV VXSSOLHG E\ (QJOLVK +HULWDJH DV JHRUHIHUHQFHG GLJLWDO WLOHV $ WLOH UHSUHVHQWV D VXEVHW RI GDWDIRURQHDUHDRQDGLJLWDOPDSZKLFKFDQEHFRPELQHG



)LJXUH&RPSDULVRQRI 5KRGHVWUDQVFULSWLRQ SRO\JRQV WRILHOGVPDSSHG E\WKH/'03 ‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\ /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH

DSSUR[LPDWHO\QRUWKHDVWVRXWKZHVWOLQLQJWKH/DPERXUQ 9DOOH\DUHPRVWSUREDEO\PHGLHYDORUSRVWPHGLHYDOVWULS O\QFKHWV

5LFKDUGV FRQFOXGHG WKDW LW ZDV WKH EDUH VRLOV WKDW QRZ RIIHUHG WKH JUHDWHVW SRWHQWLDO IRU WKH GLVFRYHU\ RI QHZ VLWHV

5LFKDUGV¶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



.H\

5LFKDUGV 

/'03EDQN  /'03GLWFK 

/DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH )LJXUH)LHOGV\VWHPVEHORZ6HJVEXU\&DPS5LFKDUGV±ZLWKSHUPLVVLRQ RYHUODLQZLWK/'03WUDQVFULSWLRQ

7KHGHVWUXFWLYHQDWXUHRIVXFFHVVLYHSKDVHVRIDJULFXOWXUH FDQLQVRPHFDVHVUHGXFHWKHO\QFKHWVWRVPDOOOHQJWKVRI GLVFRQQHFWHGEDQNV:KHUHRQO\VLQJOHEDQNVUHPDLQWKH RULJLQDOPRUSKRORJ\DQGSHULRGRIXVHLVRIWHQGLIILFXOWWR GLVFHUQ DQG WKH\ PD\ KDYH IRUPHG IURP D GLIIHUHQW SURFHVVIRUH[DPSOHIUDJPHQWDU\EDQNVO\LQJZLWKLQWKH YLFLQLW\ RI DVVDUWHG ZRRGODQG FRXOG EH WKH UHPDLQV RI PHGLHYDO RU SRVW PHGLHYDO ZRRG EDQNV RU FRSSLFH ERXQGDULHVRUUHPQDQWVRIPHGLHYDORUODWHUVWULSILHOGV

3UHKLVWRULFDQG5RPDQR%ULWLVK)HOGV /DUJHEORFNVRIFRD[LDOILHOGVZHUHUHFRUGHGRQWKHKLJK GRZQODQGVLQSDUWLFXODULQWKHHDVWHUQDQGZHVWHUQH[WHQW RI WKH 3URMHFW DUHD :LWKLQ WKH VWXG\ DUHD WKH EHVW H[DPSOHV DUH WKRVH H[WHQGLQJ DFURVV *UHHQ 'RZQ DQG :DUUHQ 'RZQ LQ &KLOGUH\ )LJXUH  D  ZKHUH WKHLU VXUYLYDO KDV UHVXOWHG IURP WKH ODQG EHLQJ PDUJLQDO IRU DJULFXOWXUH LQ ODWHU SHULRGV  EHDULQJ ZLWQHVV WR WKH LQWHQVLILFDWLRQ RI 5RPDQR%ULWLVK ODQGXVH DQG WKH SUHVVXUHRQODQGGXULQJWKDWSHULRG

0HGLHYDODQG3RVW0HGLHYDO)LHOGV $ QXPEHU RI PHGLHYDO RU SRVW PHGLHYDO VWULS O\QFKHWV ZHUH UHFRUGHG WKH PDMRULW\ RI ZKLFK OLH LQ WKH VRXWK RI WKH VWXG\ DUHD DORQJ WKH /DPERXUQ 9DOOH\ 7KH\ DUH LQWHUSUHWHG DV DQ H[WHQVLRQ RI WKH W\SLFDO PHGLHYDO RSHQ ILHOGV\VWHPRQWRPRUHPDUJLQDOODQGDVSUHVVXUHIRUODQG LQFUHDVHG 7D\ORU    DQG UXQ SDUDOOHO WR WKH

2WKHUVDSSHDUWRODFNWKHOHYHORISODQQLQJRIWKHFRD[LDO V\VWHPV )LJXUH E  7KRVH DW /HWFRPEH %RZHUV EHORZ6HJVEXU\&DPSDUHSRVVLEO\DJJUHJDWHV\VWHPV,I ODWHU WKDQ WKH ODUJHU FRD[LDO ILHOGV LQ WKH ZHVW WKH O\QFKHWV ZRXOG KDYH KDG OHVV WLPH WR IRUP DQG ZHUH FRQVHTXHQWO\PRUHHDVLO\SORXJKOHYHOOHG



HQFORVXUH DQG LQFRUSRUDWH GLWFKHG HQFORVXUHV QDUURZ OLQHV UHFRUGHGRQ3DVW6FDSHDVSRVVLEO\5RPDQR%ULWLVK

FRQWRXUV RI WKH ODQG JLYLQJ WKH DSSHDUDQFH RI WHUUDFHV )LJXUH  F  $V ZLWK WKH FRD[LDO V\VWHPV WKH\ IRUP IURP WKH GRZQVORSH PRYHPHQW RI VRLO 7KH O\QFKHWV DUH PXFK ORQJHU WKDQ WKRVH RI WKH FRD[LDO V\VWHPV DQG ODFN FURVVEDQNV KRZHYHU ZKHUH RQO\ IUDJPHQWDU\ VLQJOH EDQNVVXUYLYHWKH\DUHGLIILFXOWWRGLVWLQJXLVKIURPHDUOLHU V\VWHPV

'LWFKHG)LHOGVDQG(QFORVXUHV 7ZRW\SHVRIGLWFKHGHQFORVXUHVZHUHUHFRUGHGZLWKLQWKH 3URMHFWDUHD,QWKH ZHVWRQUHODWLYHO\OHYHOJURXQGFORVH WR WKH 5LGJHZD\ DW EHWZHHQ P DERYH 2' ODUJH GLWFKHGV\VWHPVOLHZLWKLQWKHYLFLQLW\RI$OIUHG¶V&DVWOH DQG :D\ODQG¶V 6PLWK\ DQG LQ WKH HDVW WR WKH VRXWK RI *ULP¶V'LWFKQHDU:HVW,OVOH\GLVFXVVHGIXUWKHURQSDJH  5KRGHVQRWHGDVLPLODULW\EHWZHHQWKH/DWH%URQ]H $JH GLWFKHG V\VWHPV DW :HVW ,OVOH\ DQG WKRVH VHHQ HOVHZKHUH LQ :HVVH[ DQG FRQVLGHUHG WKHP WR EH D FRPSRQHQW RI D SDVWRUDO HFRQRP\ +H IXUWKHU REVHUYHG WKDW WKH GRZQV LQ WKLV DUHD SHUSHWXDWH D VHULHV RI DQLPDO QDPHV±'09¶V@JUHHQ ,QWKHQRUWKZHVWWKH SUHVHUYDWLRQ RI WKH ILHOGV RQ ERWK FOD\ZLWKIOLQWV DQG FKDON DSSHDU WR RZH WKHLU VXUYLYDO WR DQ DEVHQFH RI YLOODJHV DQG SRVVLEOH ORQJWHUP JUDVVODQG (OVHZKHUH YLOODJHV DQG FRD[LDO V\VWHPV DUH DOPRVW PXWXDOO\ H[FOXVLYHDOWKRXJKWKHH[WHQWRIDQ\ORVVLVXQFHUWDLQDQG LQYHVWLJDWLRQVDW0DGGOH)DUPLQWKH ZHVWRIWKHSURMHFW DUHDVKRZHGWKDWHDUWKZRUNVWKHUHKDGEHHQOHYHOOHGSULRU WRWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIPRGHUQDUDEOHDJULFXOWXUH*DIIQH\ 7LQJOH 

7KH HVWDWH PDS DOVR VKRZV DUHDV RI XQFXOWLYDWHG ODQG O\LQJ GLUHFWO\ WR WKH VRXWK RI ZKDW LV QRZ WKH PRGHUQ FRXQW\ERXQGDU\DWWKHQRUWKHUQH[WHQWRIWKHPDSZKHUH HYLGHQFH IRU FRD[LDO V\VWHPV LV ODFNLQJ 7KLV PD\ KDYH

&RS\ULJKW%HUNVKLUH5HFRUG2IILFH%5270 ‹&URZQ&RS\ULJKWDQGODQGPDUNLQIRUPDWLRQJURXS/LPLWHG  $OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH

)LJXUHD (VWDWHPDSRI)DZOH\1RUWKDVLQGLFDWHG RQ WKH PDS LV LQFRUUHFW E\ DSSUR[LPDWHO\ Û  7KH PRGHUQ 2[IRUGVKLUH%HUNVKLUH&RXQW\OLHVDWWKHWRS7KHORFDWLRQRI WKH )DZOH\ EDQMR HQFORVXUHV LV FLUFOHG LQ ZKLWH

)LJXUHE 2YHUOD\RIILHOGV\VWHPVRQ26PDS7KH ORFDWLRQRIWKH)DZOH\EDQMRHQFORVXUHVLVFLUFOHG



‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\ /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH

)LJXUH/RFDWLRQRIHDUO\PHGLHYDOYLOODJHV¶'09%RFNKDPSWRQ&DWPRUH(DVW/RFNLQJH*UHDW6KHIIRUG0DLGHQFRXUW :HVW%HWWHUWRQ:KDWFRPEH:RROOH\8QQDPHG'RPHVGD\%R[IRUG%ULJKWZDOWRQ&KDGGOHZRUWK(DVWEXU\(DVW*DUVWRQ *UHDW)DZOH\/LWWOH)DZOH\/HFNKDPSVWHDG/HWFRPEH5HJLV/HWFRPEH%DVVHWW:HOIRUG*UHDW6KHIIRUGDQG)DUQERURXJK DUHERWK'RPHVGD\YLOODJHVDQG'09V(DVWEXU\LVQRWOLVWHGLQ'RPHVGD\EXWLVUHIHUUHGWRE\QDPHF*HOOLQJ  SURSRVHGWKHQDPHWRPHDQµPDQRUWRWKHHDVWRI%RFNKDPSWRQ

WKH IUDJPHQWV RI ILHOG EDQNV VHHQ LQ WKH VRXWK RI )LJXUH  SUREDEO\ GDWH IURP WKLV WLPH DQG HDUOLHU 5RFTXH¶V VXUYH\RI)LJXUH SUHVHQWVWKHDUHDDVDPRVDLF RI GLIIHUHQW ODQGXVH W\SHV LQ SDUWLFXODU DUDEOH LQWHUVSHUVHG ZLWK ZRRGODQG SDVWXUH KHDWK DQG URXJK JUD]LQJ DQG ZDWHU PHDGRZV DOLJQLQJ WKH 5LYHU /DPERXUQ

/DQGXVHLQWKH/DPERXUQ9DOOH\ 7KH /DPERXUQ 9DOOH\ KDV SURGXFHG OLWWOH FURSPDUN HYLGHQFH IRU ODWHU SUHKLVWRULF DQG 5RPDQR%ULWLVK DFWLYLW\ 'XULQJ WKH WK FHQWXU\ WKH DUHD GHULYHG LWV SURVSHULW\ IURP FHUHDOV LQ SDUWLFXODU EDUOH\ ZKLFK ZDV JURZQRQWKHFKDONRIWKHORZHUVORSHVRIWKH'RZQVDQG



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

,Q WKH HDUO\ WK FHQWXU\ WKH IHUWLOLW\ RI LQWHQVLYHO\ IDUPHGFKDONODQGVFRXOGRQO\EHPDLQWDLQHGWKURXJKWKH GXQJRIVKHHSIROGHGRQWKHIDOORZHGILHOGV%RZLH   *UDVVODQG DQG DUWLILFLDO ZDWHU PHDGRZV DORQJ WKH 5LYHU /DPERXUQ ZHUH FUHDWHG WR SURYLGH HDUO\ VSULQJ IHHG DQG ZLQWHU KD\ ZKLFK ZDV HVVHQWLDO WR VXSSRUW WKH ODUJHIORFNVQHHGHGIRULQFUHDVHG\LHOGVRIFHUHDOV%HWWH\   7KH DJULFXOWXUDO GHSUHVVLRQ LQ WKH ODWH WK FHQWXU\UHVXOWHGLQPDQ\DUDEOHILHOGVEHLQJODLGWRJUDVV DVVKRZQLQ)LJXUHE DQGLWZDVRQO\LQWKHSRVWZDU \HDUV WKURXJK WKH XVH RI DUWLILFLDO IHUWLOLVHUV DQG LPSURYHG PDFKLQHU\ WKDW DUDEOH DJULFXOWXUH RQFH DJDLQ EHFDPHSRVVLEOH $V WKH DUWLILFLDO ZDWHU PHDGRZV GHPRQVWUDWHG ZLQWHU IORRGLQJZDUPHGWKHJURXQGDQGSURYLGHGHDUO\JUD]LQJ $ VLPLODU QDWXUDOO\ RFFXUULQJ SURFHVV PD\ KDYH EHHQ H[SORLWHG LQ WKH ODWH %URQ]H $JHHDUO\ ,URQ $JH ZKHQ FRROHUZHWWHUFRQGLWLRQVZRXOGKDYHUHVXOWHGLQDKLJKHU ZDWHU WDEOH DQG VHDVRQDO IORRGLQJ 7RGD\ DOOXYLDO GHSRVLWVRQWKHYDOOH\ERWWRPIORRGSODLQDQGQHDUVWUHDP DUHDV $EHVVHU HW DO   FRPELQHG ZLWK VHGLPHQWV IURPWKHZDWHUPHDGRZVKDYHWKHSRWHQWLDOWRPDVNDQ\ XQGHUO\LQJDUFKDHRORJ\

7KLVSDWWHUQLVQRWUHSHDWHGIRUDOOWKHSDULVKHVZLWKLQWKH VWXG\DUHD)LJXUHVDE VKRZWKHSDULVKERXQGDULHV FXWWLQJ GLDJRQDOO\ DFURVV WKH ILHOG EORFNV ,Q D  WKH ERXQGDU\ FXWV WKURXJK JDSV LQ WKH ILHOG EDQNV DQG WKH NLQN LQ WKH ERXQGDU\ VXJJHVWV LW ZDV QHJRWLDWLQJ D SUH H[LVWLQJIHDWXUHSUREDEO\IXUWKHUILHOGEDQNV&RQYHUVHO\ WKHILHOGVZLWKLQ/HWFRPEH%DVVHWWE QDUURZWRH IRUP D VPDOO WULDQJXODU SORW RI ODQG LQ WKH QRUWKHDVW FRUQHU RI WKH ILHOG EORFN 7KLV PLJKW KDYH IRUPHG IURP µOHIWRYHU¶ ODQG LQ D VLPLODU ZD\ WR D µJRUH¶ ZLWK WKH WHUPLQDO O\QFKHW IROORZLQJ WKH HGJH RI D GLIIHUHQW ODQG XVHW\SH7KHPRGHUQ5LGJHZD\WUDFNVKRZQDVDQHDVW ZHVWOLQHLQ)LJXUHE FXWVDFURVVILHOGV\VWHPVDQG LIH[LVWLQJDWWKDWWLPHPXVWKDYHUXQIXUWKHUWRWKHQRUWK

%RXQGDULHV7HUULWRULHVDQG/DQG%ORFNV ,QDUHDVZKHUHILHOGV\VWHPVVXUYLYHGLQVXIILFLHQWO\ODUJH EORFNV WKH\ KDYH DOORZHG D FRPSDULVRQ WR EH PDGH EHWZHHQ WKH SDULVK ERXQGDULHV DQG WKH DOLJQPHQW RI WKH HDUOLHU ILHOGV )LJXUH  D  VKRZV %ULJKWZDOWRQ LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH SDULVKHV RI /HWFRPEH 5HJLV :DQWDJH )DZOH\&KDGGOHZRUWKDQG)DUQERURXJK7KHERXQGDULHV

)LJXUH  7KH DJULFXOWXUDO ODQGVFDSH RI WKH /DPERXUQ 9DOOH\ DV GHSLFWHG E\ 5RFTXH  ([WUDFW IURP ³$ 7RSRJUDSKLFDO 0DSRI%HUNVKLUH´E\-RKQ5RFTXH&RS\ULJKW7KH%RGOHLDQ/LEUDULHV7KH8QLYHUVLW\RI2[IRUG&D6KHHW9GHWDLO 



D  /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH

E 

)LJXUH  D  &RPSDULVRQ RI ILHOG V\VWHPV WR PRGHUQ SDULVK ERXQGDU\E %ULJKZDOWRQ&KDGGOHZRUWKSDULVKERXQGDU\

E 

D  /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH ‹&URZQ&RS\ULJKWDQG/DQGPDUN,QIRUPDWLRQ*URXS/LPLWHG $OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG )LJXUHD (DVW*DUVWRQ)DZOH\SDULVKERXQGDU\E &KLOGUH\/HWFRPEH%DVVHWWSDULVKERXQGDU\



WKLVZRXOGSURYLGHDQH[SODQDWLRQIRUWKHLUVXUYLYDOLQDQ DUHD ZKLFK LV VKRZQ E\ 5RFTXH DQG WKH /86 WR KDYH EHHQXQGHUDUDEOHLQERWKSHULRGV)LJXUHE 

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µ&HOWLF¶ O\QFKHW OD\ DJDLQVW WKH HDVWHUQ VLGH RI WKH GLWFK VXJJHVWLQJ WKLV ZDV D ODWHU IHDWXUH

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

)LJXUH/HWFRPEH%DVVHWW SDULVK ERXQGDULHV 7KH ERXQGDU\ LQ WKH QRUWKZHVW $  IRUPV D UHJXODU FXUYH DV LW IROORZVWKHURDGDORQJ+ROEXUQ +LOO D URXWH LQ H[LVWHQFH SULRU WR WKH 5RFTXH VXUYH\ % KDV D PRUH VLQXRXV IRUP ZKHUH LW IROORZV WKH OLQH RI VSULQJV WKDW IHHG WKH /HWFRPEH %URRN & IROORZVDVWHSSHGERXQGDU\LQWR ZKLFK ODWHU ILHOGV KDYH EHHQ ILWWHG ' DOVR KDV D NLQN LQ WKH ERXQGDU\DVLWUXQVDFURVVRSHQ GRZQODQG ‹&URZQ&RS\ULJKWDQG/DQGPDUN,QIRUPDWLRQ*URXS/LPLWHG $OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG



D 

/DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH )LJXUHD %RXQGDULHV$IRUPHUILHOGERXQGDULHVUHFRUGHGRQWKH2UGQDQFH6XUYH\PDS %)DZOH\(DVW*DUVWRQSDULVKERXQGDU\

E 

E 

)LJXUH  &RD[LDO ILHOG V\VWHPV LQ UHODWLRQ WR (DVW 'LWFK7KHILHOGV\VWHPVLQWKH QRUWK OLH RQ D GLIIHUHQW DOLJQPHQW HLWKHU VLGH RI WKH WUDFNVKRZQDVDGDVKHGOLQH  VXJJHVWLQJ WKH WUDFN ZDV LQ H[LVWHQFH SULRU WR WKH IRUPDWLRQRIWKHILHOGV

/DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH )LJXUHE 3RVVLEOHSRVWPHGLHYDOILHOGVFHQWUHDQGVRXWK RILPDJH  /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ 3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH



:LWKLQ WKH ODUJHU 3URMHFW DUHD WKH ODUJHGLWFKHGV\VWHPV DW :HVW ,OVOH\ DQG $OIUHG¶V &DVWOH GLVFXVVHG LQ &KDSWHU  DSSHDU WR EH ERXQGHG E\ IRUPHU RU H[WDQW ULYHU FKDQQHOV DW :HVW ,OVOH\ WKH OLQH RI *ULP¶V GLWFK WR WKH QRUWK DQG WKH ULYHU FKDQQHO WR WKH VRXWK PD\ KDYH ERXQGHG DQ DUHD RI SDVWRUDO DFWLYLW\ 6LPLODUO\ WKH PRVW QRUWKHUQRIWKHGLWFKHVDW$OIUHG¶V&DVWOHPD\RQFHKDYH IRUPHGDFRPSOHWHFLUFXLWERXQGLQJWKDWDUHD

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

:LWKLQ WKH VWXG\ DUHD VPDOOHU H[DPSOHV PLJKW DOVR KDYH EHHQ VLWHG ZLWK WKH LQWHQWLRQ RI DOORZLQJ D VWUHDP WR SURYLGHDERXQGDU\)LJXUHFG 

‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\

)LJXUH/RFDWLRQRISRVVLEOHULYHUERXQGDULHV$±:HVW,OVOH\%±$OIUHG¶V&DVWOH &±:DUUHQ'RZQ'±%HORZ(DVW*DUVWRQ'LWFK

)LJXUHD 3RVVLEOHULYHUERXQGDU\DW:HVW,OVOH\

D 

/DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH %DVHGXSRQD%ULWLVK*HRORJLFDO6XUYH\(GLQDVXSSOLHGVHUYLFH  ZLWKWKHSHUPLVVLRQRIWKH%ULWLVK*HRORJLFDO6XUYH\



E 

%DVHG XSRQ D %ULWLVK *HRORJLFDO 6XUYH\(',1$ VXSSOLHG VHUYLFHZLWKWKHSHUPLVVLRQRIWKH%ULWLVK*HRORJLFDO6XUYH\ /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH

)LJXUHE 3RVVLEOHULYHUERXQGDU\DW$OIUHG¶V&DVWOH

G 

F 

%DVHGXSRQD%ULWLVK*HRORJLFDO6XUYH\(',1$VXSSOLHGVHUYLFHZLWKWKHSHUPLVVLRQRIWKH%ULWLVK*HRORJLFDO6XUYH\ /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH )LJXUHF /LQHDU6HWWOHPHQW>@RQ:DUUHQ'RZQ

G 3RVVLEOHPHDQGHUFXWRIIEHORZ(DVW*DUVWRQGLWFK

7KH ULYHU JUDYHOV VKRZQ LQ )LJXUH  DG  FRPSULVH TXDWHUQDU\ GHSRVLWV RI FOD\ VLOW VDQG DQG JUDYHO $ KLJKHUZDWHUWDEOHDQGGHIRUHVWDWLRQFRXOGKDYHLQFUHDVHG VXUIDFH UXQRII UHVXOWLQJ LQ DQ H[WHQGHG RU SHUPDQHQW VWUHDP IORZ *UXQG\    GHVFULEHV DQ LQWHUPLWWHQW VSULQJ IORZLQJ DORQJ WKH 1HZEXU\ WR :DQWDJH URDG LQ WKH ¶V WR WKH HDVW RI 6HJVEXU\ &DPS GLVFXVVHG EHORZ  ,I WKHVH VWUHDPV ZHUH H[WDQW ZKHQ WKH GLWFKHV ZHUH FRQVWUXFWHG WKH LQWHQWLRQ PLJKW KDYH EHHQ WR VHFXUH D WHUULWRULDO DUHD ZLWK DFFHVV WR D SHUPDQHQWZDWHUVXSSO\

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

5RDGVDQG7UDFNZD\V 5RDGV KDYH ERWK D VRFLDO DQG HFRQRPLF LPSRUWDQFH DQG DOWKRXJK DPRQJVW WKH ROGHVW IHDWXUHV WR EH IRXQG LQ WKH ODQGVFDSH WKH DJH RI PRVW DQFLHQW URDGV DQG WUDFNZD\V



HOXFLGDWH DQGLWLVSUREDEOHWKDWDQXPEHURIURDGV ZHUH DGRSWHGLQODWHUSHULRGVIURPWKH5RPDQDQGSUH5RPDQ WUDFNZD\V WKDW OLQNHG KLOOIRUWV IDUPVWHDGV VHWWOHPHQWV DQG VKHHS ZDONV 7KH JUHDWHVW ORVV WR UXUDO WUDFNZD\V RFFXUUHG GXULQJ 3DUOLDPHQWDU\ (QFORVXUH ZKHQ WKH\ ZHUH EORFNHG E\ WKH HQFORVXUH RI RSHQ ILHOGV DQG VXEVHTXHQWO\SORXJKHGRXW

IXUWKHU PRYHPHQW DQG HVWDEOLVKLQJ D QHZ URXWH DQ LQWHUSUHWDWLRQDOVRIDYRXUHGE\ *UXQG\ DQG 6KHUUDWW    1R FURSPDUNV RI DOWHUQDWH URXWHV KDYH \HW EHHQ UHFRUGHG DQG WKHUHIRUH ZKLOH WKH JHQHUDO FRXUVHRIWKH5LGJHZD\LVSUREDEO\RIJUHDWDQWLTXLW\LWV SUHFLVHDJHDQGKRZFORVHO\LWQRZDOLJQVWRWKHHDUOLHVW URXWHLVXQSURYHQ

7KH5LGJHZD\

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

2QH RI WKH PDMRU URXWHV UXQQLQJ WKURXJK WKLV DUHD ERWK WHPSRUDOO\DQGVSDWLDOO\LV WKH5LGJHZD\ ZKLFKIROORZV WKHFUHVWRIWKH 'RZQVIRUNLORPHWUHVIURP2YHUWRQ +LOO QHDU $YHEXU\ WR ,YLQJKRH %HDFRQ LQ %XFNLQJKDPVKLUH5LGJHZD\VZKLFKE\GHILQLWLRQOLHRQ WKH KLJKHVW JURXQG SURYLGH ZHOOGHILQHG DQG UHODWLYHO\ GU\ SDWKZD\V DERYH WKH ZDWHUVKHGV ZLWK JRRG YLVLELOLW\ RYHU ORQJ GLVWDQFHV ,W ZDV IRUPDOLVHG LQ WKH WK DQG WK FHQWXULHV GXULQJ (QFORVXUH ZKHQ LWV ZLGWK ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG DW RQH FKDLQ  PHWUHV  7RGD\ WKH 5LGJHZD\LVD1DWLRQDO7UDLODQGLVFODLPHGWREHRQHRI WKH ROGHVW URXWHV LQ WKH FRXQWU\ EHLQJ GDWHG E\ DVVRFLDWLRQ WR WKH KLOOIRUWV 8IILQJWRQ :KLWH +RUVH :D\ODQG¶V6PLWK\ORQJEDUURZDQGDQXPEHURISRVVLEOH URXQG EDUURZV WKDW OLQH LWV URXWH ,W KDV WKXV EHHQ DVVLJQHGYDULRXVHDUO\GDWHVE\DQXPEHURIDQWLTXDULDQV DQGKLVWRULDQVZKRWUDYHOOHGDORQJLWVURXWH VXPPDULVHG E\6WHDQH DQGPRUHUHFHQWO\E\%HOODQG /RFN ZKRVXJJHVWDSUREDEOHSUH1HROLWKLFGDWH

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µVWUDHWZD\¶ ZDVXVHGIRUILHOGVWKDWERXQGHGWKHURDG 5RDGVDQG7UDFNZD\VLQWKH6D[RQ&KDUWHUV 7KH 6D[RQ FKDUWHUV FRQILUP D QXPEHU RI URDGV WKURXJK WKHXVHRIGHVFULSWLYHQDPHVVXFKDVZHJDZD\RUURDG VWU WDPDGHURDG5RPDQ DQGKHUHSDWK±DUP\SDWK 6RPHRIWKHVHHDUO\WUDFNVDUHYLVLEOHWRGD\DVKROORZD\V RUJUHHQODQHVRWKHUVKDYHVXUYLYHGZLWKLQPRGHUQURDGV 6XWKHUDQ ZHJ  6RXWKHUQ :D\ UHFRUGHG LQ WKH %ULJKWZDOWRQ &KDUWHU $'   LV QRZ WKH %

%HOO /RFN XVHGD*,6EDVHGVWXG\WRFDOFXODWH WKH OHDVW HIIRUW URXWH DFURVV WKH 'RZQV 7KHLU FDOFXODWHG URXWH IROORZV D VOLJKWO\ GLIIHUHQW FRXUVH WR WKDW RI WKH PRGHUQ 5LGJHZD\ DQG WKHLU DVVHUWLRQ LV WKDW WKLV URXWH ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG RQ D IRUPHU DQLPDO WUDFN DQG SRVVLEO\ XVHG E\ SUH1HROLWKLF WUDYHOOHUV DQG ODWHU DGRSWHG DV D URXWHEHWZHHQKLOOIRUWVDQXPEHURIZKLFKZHUHGHVLJQHG VRWKDWLWVFRXUVHSDVVHGWKURXJKWKHLURSSRVLQJHDVWZHVW HQWUDQFHV HIIHFWLYHO\ EORFNLQJ WKH RULJLQDO URXWH WR DQ\

 KWWSWKHKXPDQMRXUQH\QHWSGIBVWRUHVWKDPHVSKDVH1HROLWKLF DQG(DUO\%URQ]H$JH5HVRXUFH$VVHVVPHQWSGI $FFHVVHG'HF



1HZEXU\WR:DQWDJHURDG,NQLHOG6WUHHWLVIRXQGLQWKH FKDUWHUV RI 8IILQJWRQ DQG %OHZEXU\ ZKHUH LW LV JLYHQ DV ,FHQKLOGHZHJDQGLNHQLOGH*HOOLQJ 

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

,Q WKH )DUQERURXJK &KDUWHU $'  VPDOHQ ZHJ QDUURZZD\ IRUPVWKHQRUWKHDVWHUQH[WHQWRIWKHSDULVK 7KLV WUDFN UDQ FORVH WR WKH HQWUDQFH WR 6SDUURZ¶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

,W LV RI LQWHUHVW WKDW WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH QRUWKHUQ EDQMR HQFORVXUHV OLH LQ FORVH SUR[LPLW\ WR SDULVK ERXQGDULHV )LJXUH   $V GLVFXVVHG DERYH VRPH RI WKHVH KDYH VXUYLYHGIURPWKH HDUO\ PHGLHYDOSHULRGDQGPLJKW KDYH HYHQHDUOLHURULJLQVFRQQHFWLQJWKHHQFORVXUHV%DQMR¶V DQGDDSSHDUWREHWKHH[FHSWLRQKRZHYHU&R[¶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

/\QFKHW:D\VDQG)LHOG%ORFNV /\QFKHWZD\VIRUPHGIURPWKHDOLJQPHQWRIWZRFORVHO\ VHW SDUDOOHO EDQNV DQG DUH WKHUHIRUH FRQWHPSRUDU\ ZLWK WKH FUHDWLRQ RI WKH ILHOGV 7KH EHVW H[DPSOH RI WKLV W\SH ZLWKLQWKHVWXG\DUHDLVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH

0DQ0DGH3RQGV ,W LV SRVVLEOH WKDW PDQPDGH SRQGV VHUYHG PDQ\ RI WKH VHWWOHPHQWV RQ WKH %HUNVKLUH 'RZQV UHSOHQLVKHG UHJXODUO\E\UDLQZDWHU+LVWRULFDOVRXUFHVUHFRUGUDPPHG IOLQW VWUDZ FOD\ DQG VDQG EHLQJ XVHG LQ WKHLU FRQVWUXFWLRQDOORIZKLFKDUHUHDGLO\DYDLODEOHZLWKLQWKH HQYLURQV RI 6HJVEXU\ &DPS LQFOXGLQJ WHUWLDU\ VDQG GHSRVLWVLQZRRGODQGDW/HWFRPEH%RZHUV&KDSWHU $ OD\HURIVRRWEHQHDWKWKHFOD\SUHYHQWHGHDUWKZRUPVDQG JUXEVEXUURZLQJLQWRWKHOLQLQJ7KHSRQGVRQFHFUHDWHG ZHUHNHSWYLDEOHE\WKHSXGGOLQJRIWKHFOD\WKURXJKWKH WUDPSOLQJRIWKHDQLPDOV

‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\ /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH

)LJXUH  /\QFKHWZD\ GHQRWHG E\ DUURZV 2YHUO\LQJ /'03GDWDRQDPRGHUQPDSDOVRVHUYHVWRGHPRQVWUDWHKRZ WKH PRGHUQ ILHOG OD\RXW QDUURZ OLQHV  LQ PDQ\ LQVWDQFHV GLVUHJDUGVHDUOLHUIHDWXUHV



‹&URZQ&RS\ULJKWDQG/DQGPDUN,QIRUPDWLRQ*URXS/LPLWHG $OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG ‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\ )LJXUH3RVVLEOHWUDFNZD\VLQUHODWLRQWRSDULVKERXQGDULHV7KRVHUHSUHVHQWHGE\EODFNGDVKHGOLQHVKDYHEHHQWUDQVFULEHG IURPFURSPDUNVRIO\QFKHWZD\VDQGIURPWKHYDULRXVDOLJQPHQWVRIILHOGVGLVFXVVHGLQWKLVFKDSWHU5RPDQURDGVDUHGHSLFWHGLQ EOXHDQGWKRVHUHFRUGHGLQWKH6D[RQFKDUWHUVLQUHG

ZDWHU RI D SRQG LV QHDUO\ H[KDXVWHG DQG D GRZQSRXU HQVXHV WKH UDLQ LQ WLPH GHOXJHV WKH VORSHV DQG FRQYHUWV WKHP LQWR FKDQQHOV E\ ZKLFK WKH UDLQ LV GUDLQHG GRZQ LQWRWKHSRQG´

,Q  $UWKXU %HFNHWW UHFRXQWV REVHUYDWLRQV PDGH E\ *LOEHUW:KLWHDQDWXUDOKLVWRULDQDQGHFRORJLVWUHJDUGLQJ D SRQG RQ VKHHS GRZQV DW 6HOERUQH LQ +DPSVKLUH ZKLFKWKRXJKQHYHUDERYHWKUHHIHHWP GHHSLQWKH PLGGOH DQG QRW PRUH WKDQ WKLUW\ IHHW  P  LQ GLDPHWHUDQGFRQWDLQLQJSHUKDSVQRWPRUHWKDQWZRRU WKUHH KXQGUHG KRJVKHDGV  JDOORQV  RI ZDWHU\HWQHYHULVNQRZQWRIDLOWKRXJKLWDIIRUGVGULQN IRUWKUHHKXQGUHGRUIRXUKXQGUHGVKHHSDQGIRUDWOHDVW WZHQW\KHDGRIODUJHFDWWOHEHVLGHV

,WLVSRVVLEOHWKDWDQXPEHURIWKHSLWOLNHIHDWXUHVVHHQRQ DHULDO SKRWRJUDSKV DUH PDQPDGH SRQGV RU ZHOOV 7KH HQFORVXUH GLWFK RI WKH HDUO\ ,URQ $JH VHWWOHPHQW DW /LGEXU\ :LOWVKLUH FXUYHV DURXQG D ODUJH SRQGOLNH GHSUHVVLRQLQFRUSRUDWLQJLWZLWKLQWKHHQFORVXUHDOWKRXJK HDUO\ H[FDYDWLRQV ZHUH LQFRQFOXVLYH DV WR LWV IXQFWLRQ &XQQLQJWRQ $W%HDFK¶V%DUQEDQMRHQFORVXUHLQ :LOWVKLUH +DUGLQJ    D ODUJH JHRSK\VLFDO DQRPDO\ RXWVLGH WKH HQWUDQFH ZDV IRXQG WR EH D ZHOO RU VKDIW P LQ GLDPHWHU 5RPDQ SRWWHU\ DQG DUWHIDFWV ZHUH

+HDOVRSURYLGHVIXUWKHUDQHFGRWDOREVHUYDWLRQVIURPWKH 5HY +3 6ODGH ³7KH VORSHV RI WKH 'RZQV ZHUH IRXQG JUHDWO\WRLQFUHDVHWKHYDOXHRIDGRZQIDOORIUDLQZKLFK LQ VRPH FDVHV ZDV IURP WKLV IDFW GRXEOH :KHQ WKH



*UXQG\ DQGFRQWLQXHVWRGRVRLQSDUWLFXODUO\ ZHW FRQGLWLRQV 0F2PLVK HW DO   KDYH REVHUYHG WKDWZLWKLQWKH637$EDUURZVZHUHRIWHQORFDWHGFORVHWR WKH VRXUFH RI VSULQJV 7KH VPDOO FHPHWHU\ µ:RROOH\ %DUURZV¶ O\LQJ DORQJVLGH WKH $ LV VWLOO H[WDQW RQ :RROOH\ 'RZQ DOWKRXJK DV GLVFXVVHG LQ &KDSWHU  WKH IXQFWLRQ DQG GDWH RI WKH PRXQGV LV XQFHUWDLQ 0LOOV   KDV IXUWKHU DUJXHG WKDW WKH µZRRO¶ HOHPHQW LQ :RROOH\PLJKWDOVRSURYLGHDUHIHUHQFHWRVSULQJV

UHFRYHUHG IURP WKH ILOOV EXW WKH ERWWRP ZDV QRW UHDFKHG DQGLWLVSRVVLEO\DQHDUOLHUIHDWXUH$W8IILQJWRQ+LOOIRUW DFOD\OLQHGJXOO\ PLJKWDOVR SURYLGHHYLGHQFH IRU ZDWHU PDQDJHPHQW0LOHVHWDO  $SRVVLEOHUHIHUHQFH WR ZHOOVLQWKLVDUHD LVSURYLGHGE\ +HZLWW ZKRUHFRXQWVDYLVLWE\&ROW+RDUH WR &RPSWRQ LQ WKH HDVW RI WKH 3URMHFW DUHD ZKLFK ZDV WKRXJKWE\DQWLTXDULDQVWREHD5RPDQWRZQRZLQJWRWKH µLQQXPHUDEOH TXDQWLWLHV¶ RI 5RPDQ FRLQV DQG EXLOGLQJ PDWHULDO GLVFRYHUHG GXULQJ SORXJKLQJ 7KH RZQHU RI WKH ILHOG GHVFULEHG KRZ VHYHUDO ZHOOV KDG IDOOHQ LQ DW GLIIHUHQWWLPHV

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¶V 3RRO %XFNDQPHU  ZKLFK LV WKRXJKW WR OLH FORVH WR )RJQDP 'RZQ5RPDQVHWWOHPHQWQHDU/DPERXUQ*HOOLQJ  DQGµEDWKLQJSODFH¶%XUQHVWRZH  $FURSPDUNHG IHDWXUH RIZKDWDSSHDUVWREHDVPDOOVHWWOHPHQWRUIDUPVWHDGOLHV FORVHE\

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 UIORGHQ DQ LQWHUPLWWHQW VSULQJRUVWUHDPRQWKHHDVWHUQERXQGDU\ZKLFKZDVVHHQ IORZLQJGRZQZKDWLVQRZWKH%LQWKHODVWFHQWXU\ *UXQG\    7KLV VSULQJ LV DOVR PHQWLRQHG LQ WKH ERXQGV RI )DUQERURXJK ZKLFK QDPHV D VHFRQG VSULQJDQµLQWHUPLWWHQWVSULQJUHVHPEOLQJDNHWWOH¶F\WHO IORGH RQWKHQRUWKHUQERUGHUDQGDµVKLHOGVKDSHGSRRO¶ VF\OGPHUH DVKRUWGLVWDQFHWRWKHHDVW7RWKHVRXWKHDVW RI )DUQERURXJK WKHUH LV D UHIHUHQFH WR IRUG PHDGRZV I\UG KDPPDV  RQ WKH ERXQGDU\ ZLWK 6WDQPRUH DQG *HOOLQJ KDVVXJJHVWHGWKDWWKHVWUHDPIURPZKLFK WKH :LQWHUERXUQH LV QDPHG PD\ KDYH KDG LWV VRXUFH LQ WKLVDUHDDWWKHWLPHRIWKHFKDUWHUV)RUVEHUJ  KRZHYHU VXJJHVWV I\UG ZDV D FRQWHPSRUDU\ ZRUG IRU WKH$QJOR6D[RQDUP\DQGPLJKWLPSO\JUD]LQJIRUWKHLU KRUVHV6WDQPRUHLVDOVRDUHIHUHQFHWRZDWHU6WDQPHUH± VWRQHSRRODQGWRWKHVRXWKWKHVPDOO3DULVKRI&DWPRUH FDW PHUH  WDNHV LWV QDPH IURP WKH PHDQLQJ µSRRO IUHTXHQWHG E\ ZLOG FDWV¶ 7KH DSSUR[LPDWH ORFDWLRQ RI WKHVHVRXUFHVDQGWKHLUSUR[LPLW\WRWKHEDQMRHQFORVXUHV LVVKRZQLQ)LJXUH

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

7KH :DQWDJH WR 6KHIIRUG URDG WKH PRGHUQ $  VHSDUDWHVWKHSDULVKHVRI)DZOH\DQG&KDGGOHZRUWKDQGLV FHQWUDOO\ ORFDWHG ZLWKLQ WKH FOXVWHU RI EDQMR HQFORVXUHV IROORZLQJWKHYDOOH\IORRUDQGLVLWVHOIDGU\VWUHDPEHG$ VWUHDP UDQ VHDVRQDOO\ DORQJ WKLV URDG LQWR WKH WK FHQWXU\ SRVVLEO\ IURP D VRXUFH FORVH WR :RROOH\ 'RZQ



)LJXUH3RQGO\LQJLQWKHGU\YDOOH\EHWZHHQ/HWFRPEH%RZHUVDQGEDQMRHQFORVXUHV7KHORFDWLRQRI /HWFRPEH%RZHUVLVQHDUWKHWUHHOLQHDWWKHWRSRIWKHLPDJH

%DVHGXSD%ULWLVK*HRORJLFDO6XUYH\(',1$ VXSSOLHGVHUYLFHZLWKWKHSHUPLVVLRQRIWKH %ULWLVK*HRORJLFDO6XUYH\ ‹ &URZQ FRS\ULJKW  2UGQDQFH 6XUYH\  )LJXUH   %DQMR HQFORVXUHV DQG RWKHU HQFORVXUH IRUPV WULDQJOHV  LQ UHODWLRQ WR UHFRUGHGZDWHUVRXUFHVQXPEHUHG  VF\OGPHUHF\WHOIORGH$:RROOH\ 'RZQ &DWPRUH P UIORGHQ GXQLDQ PHUH:KDWFRPEH



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±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

$QXPEHURISRVVLEOHZDWHUVRXUFHVKDYHEHHQLGHQWLILHG



/'03GDWDVHW7KLVQHZGDWDVHWZDVIXUWKHUH[DPLQHGWR GHWHUPLQH ZKHWKHU WKH UHODWLRQVKLSV LGHQWLILHG E\ SUHYLRXV UHVHDUFKHUV ZHUH VWLOO YDOLG DQG LI DQ\ QHZ WKHRUHWLFDOUHODWLRQVKLSVFRXOGEHGHWHUPLQHG

&+$37(56,; (1+$1&,1* 7+( '$7$ )520 7+( /$0%2851 '2:16 0$33,1* 352-(&7 ± /,*+7'(7(&7,21$1'5$1*,1*/,'$5 

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µLOOXPLQDWHG¶DQGYLHZHGIURPDQ\DQJOH7KH DELOLW\ WR DOWHU WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI LOOXPLQDWLRQ PDNHV LW SRVVLEOH WR HQKDQFH DQG GLVSOD\ SUHYLRXVO\ XQVHHQ IHDWXUHV DQG WR FUHDWH SURILOHV IRU WKH IHDWXUHV DOORZLQJ IRU D KLJK OHYHO RI REMHFWLYLW\ 7KH DELOLW\ WR PDS WR D PXFK ILQHU OHYHO RI DFFXUDF\ DOVR DVVLVWV LQ PDNLQJ ORFDWLRQDOFRUUHFWLRQVWRIHDWXUHVPDSSHGSUHYLRXVO\IURP FRQYHQWLRQDODHULDOFRYHUWKHH[SHFWHGDFFXUDF\RIZKLFK ZDVPHWUHV6&UXWFKOH\SHUVFRPP 

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

7KH QDWXUH RI WKH ODVHU DOORZV LW WR SHQHWUDWH EHWZHHQ OHDYHVDQGEUDQFKHVWRUHFHLYHDUHWXUQUHIOHFWLRQIURPWKH JURXQG :KHQ WKH ODVHU SXOVH KLWV D VROLG REMHFW SDUW RI WKHEHDPLVUHIOHFWHGEDFNWRWKHVHQVRUEXWRQµSRURXV¶ VXUIDFHV VXFK DV YHJHWDWLRQ RQO\ VRPH RI WKH SXOVH LV UHIOHFWHG ZKLOH WKH UHPDLQGHU SHQHWUDWHV WKURXJK WR WKH JURXQG VXUIDFH 7KH VHQVRU UHFRUGV DOO UHWXUQLQJ SXOVHV EXWDWWKHWLPHRIWKHVXUYH\XVHGLQWKLVVWXG\RQO\WKH ILUVWDQGODVWSXOVHZDVXVHG7KHWRSRIDQ\YHJHWDWLRQRU RWKHU IHDWXUH HQFRXQWHUHG ZDV UHFRUGHG DV WKH µILUVW SXOVH¶ WKH UHPDLQGHU RI WKH HQHUJ\ UHWXUQHG IURP WKH JURXQGVXUIDFH ZDVUHFRUGHGDVWKH µODVWSXOVH¶,QFDVHV ZKHUHWKHEHDPPDNHVFRQWDFWZLWKDVROLGVXUIDFHLQWKH ILUVW LQVWDQFH WKH ILUVW DQG ODVW SXOVH LV WKH VDPH ([SHULPHQWVLQZRRGHGDUHDVKDYHDVVHVVHGWKHSRWHQWLDO RI OLGDU IRU PDSSLQJ IRUHVW IORRUV DW  SHUFHQW LQ W\SLFDO GHFLGXRXV ZRRGODQG DQG  SHUFHQW GXULQJ ZLQWHU $FNHUPDQQ   9HJHWDWLRQ UHPRYDO DOJRULWKPV FDQ DOVR EH HPSOR\HG ZKLFK XQGHU RSWLPXP FRQGLWLRQV FRPSOHWHO\ VWULS WKH YHJHWDWLRQ WR UHYHDO IHDWXUHVQRUPDOO\PDVNHGE\ZRRGODQGFRYHU'HYHUHX[ HWDO/HQQRQDQG&URZ 

7KH VXFFHVV RI OLGDU LQ GHWHFWLQJ SORXJKGDPDJHG DUFKDHRORJLFDO UHPDLQV RQ RSHQ GRZQODQG ZDV GHPRQVWUDWHGDW6WRQHKHQJH%HZOH\HWDO ZKHUHLW DGGHG WR WKH H[WHQW RI WKH NQRZQ ILHOG V\VWHPV DQG SURYLGHG DGGLWLRQDO GDWD SDUWLFXODUO\ LQ WKH IRUP RI SUHYLRXVO\ XQVHHQ FURVVEDQNV UXQQLQJ SHUSHQGLFXODU WR WKH PDLQDOLJQPHQWRIILHOGV7KLVHQDEOHGWKHGHILQLWLRQ RI WKH ILHOGV WR EH FRPSOHWHG UHYHDOLQJ D UHJXODULW\ LQ WKHLU OHYHO RI SODQQLQJ ,Q DGGLWLRQ LW ZDV SRVVLEOH WR VKRZ WKH UHODWLRQVKLS RI WKH ILHOG EDQNV WR RWKHU PRQXPHQWV 7KH %HUNVKLUH 'RZQV SURYLGHG DQ LGHDO ODQGVFDSH LQ ZKLFK WR WHVW WKH DELOLW\ RI OLGDU WR UHFRUG IHDWXUHV LQ YDU\LQJ VWDWHV RI SUHVHUYDWLRQ DQG WR GHWHUPLQH WR ZKDW H[WHQW LW ZDV SRVVLEOH WR UHFRQVWUXFW D SORXJKOHYHOOHG ODQGVFDSH7KHGDWDIURPWKH/'03ZDVXVHGDVDGHYLFH DJDLQVWZKLFKWKHUHVXOWVFRXOGEHHYDOXDWHG

'LJLWDO 6XUIDFH 0RGHOV >'60¶V@ HOHYDWLRQ PRGHOV WKDW FRQWDLQ WKH KHLJKWV RI REMHFWV VXFK DV EXLOGLQJV DQG YHJHWDWLRQ DV ZHOO DV RSHQ JURXQG FDQ EH FUHDWHG IURP ILUVW SXOVH GDWD 'LJLWDO 7HUUDLQ 0RGHOV >'70V@ WKDW VKRZ YDULDWLRQV LQ VXUIDFH HOHYDWLRQV LQFOXGLQJ WKRVH FUHDWHGE\DUFKDHRORJLFDOIHDWXUHVIURPWKHODVWSXOVH

/LGDUGDWDZDVREWDLQHGIRUWZRFRQWUDVWLQJODQGVFDSHV± DQ DUHD RI KLJK FKDON GRZQODQG WR WKH VRXWKZHVW RI 6HJVEXU\ZKHUHDQFLHQWILHOGV\VWHPVZHUHUHFRUGHGSULRU WR WKHLU ORVV WKURXJK DJULFXOWXUH DQG WKH /DPERXUQ 9DOOH\ZKHUHWKH\DSSHDUWREHDEVHQW1HZLQIRUPDWLRQ GHULYLQJ IURP WKLV PHWKRG ZDV XVHG WR HQKDQFH WKH

0RUH UHFHQWO\ GHYHORSPHQWV LQ OLGDU VHQVRUV KDV H[SDQGHG DQG WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH HQWLUH DQDORJXH HFKR



WKH /DPERXUQ 9DOOH\ 7KH 1(5& GDWD KDV D JURXQG VDPSOLQJ GLVWDQFH RI P DQG WKLV KDV SURYLGHG WKH RSSRUWXQLW\ WR HYDOXDWH GDWD DW WZR GLIIHUHQW UHVROXWLRQV ZLWKLQ WKH /DPERXUQ 9DOOH\ DUHD )LJXUH  VKRZV WKH OLGDUFRYHUDJHDUHDIRUERWKGDWDVHWV7KHWHFKQLFDOGHWDLOV DUHJLYHQLQ$SSHQGL[

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µSRLQW FORXGV¶ RI KHLJKW REVHUYDWLRQV 7KH SRVLWLRQ RI HDFKKLWRQWKH JURXQGLVDVVRFLDWHG ZLWKD*36UHDGLQJ WKDW SURYLGHV FRRUGLQDWHV ; DQG @ WKRXJKW WR KDYH EHHQ SORXJKOHYHOOHG ZDV DOVR GHWHFWHG )LJXUH   7KH EDUURZ KDV D PD[LPXP GLDPHWHU RI P,QSURILOHWKH RXWHUEDQNVDQGIODQNLQJGLWFKHVFDQ EHGLVWLQJXLVKHGDQGWKHPRXQGKDVDPD[LPXPKHLJKWRI DSSUR[LPDWHO\FP,WLVSUREDEOHWKDWVRPHVXEVXUIDFH IHDWXUHVVXUYLYH

/LGDU IXUWKHU RIIHUHG WKH RSSRUWXQLW\ WR DVVHVV WKH SUHVHUYDWLRQ RU RWKHUZLVH RI D QXPEHU RI UHFRUGHG EDUURZV )ROO\&OXPS 7ZR RI VL[ EDUURZV >@ LQYHVWLJDWHG E\ *UHHQZHOO LQDQG*ULQVHOOLQZHUHGHWHFWHGE\OLGDUWRWKH VRXWK RI )ROO\ &OXPS DQG SURILOHV FUHDWHG )LJXUH   7KHUHPDLQLQJIRXUEDUURZVFRXOGQRWEHLGHQWLILHG

7KH SURFHVV ZDV UHSHDWHG IRU DOO WKH UHFRUGHG ULQJ GLWFKHV?PRXQGV ZLWKLQ ERWK OLGDU VWXG\ DUHDV EXW IHZ SURGXFHGSURILOHV WKDW FRXOG EH GHHPHG WR EH PRUH WKDQ WKH QDWXUDO VORSH RI WKH JURXQG RU SRVVLEOH DQLPDO GLVWXUEDQFH7KHUHVXOWVDUHVKRZQLQ7DEOH

68   $ PRXQG GHVFULEHG E\ *ULQVHOO DV D VDXFHU RU SRVVLEOH GLVF EDUURZ ZLWK D IODWWHQHG FHQWUDO PRXQGDQGDGLWFKWZHQW\IHHW ZLGHP 7KH PRXQG LVQRZDSSUR[LPDWHO\FPKLJK

)LJXUH%DUURZVDW)ROO\&OXPS

)LJXUH'LVFEDUURZ RQ1XWZRRG'RZQ

'DWD SURYLGHG FRXUWHV\ RI 1(5& $56) WKH 1DWXUDO (QYLURQPHQW 5HVHDUFK &RXQFLO¶V$LUERUQH5HVHDUFKDQG6XUYH\)DFLOLW\



No

Type

313 314 315 325 326 317 311 139 142 143 150 150 150 150 153 328 158 160 161 144 171 175 182

Ring Ditch SU 3327 8006 No profile detected Ring Ditch SU 3337 8004 No profile detected Ring Ditch SU 3334 7995 No profile detected Ring Ditch SU 3334 7978 No profile detected Ring Ditch SU 3335 7972 No profile detected Ring Ditch SU 3323 7946 No profile detected at 1.5m or 1m resolution Ring Ditch SU 3327 7909 No profile detected at 1.5m or 1m resolution Ring Ditch SU 3327 7868 No profile detected Ring Ditch SU 3493 8382 No profile detected Ring Ditch SU 3412 8354 No profile detected Ring Ditch SU 3597 8257 No profile detected Earthwork SU 3590 8255 Disc barrow, mound ~15cm high Earthwork SU 3594 8256 Bowl barrow mound ~70cm high Ring Ditch SU 3596 8258 Irregular shaped cropmark; concave depression, ?bowl barrow Ring Ditch SU 3513 8204 No profile detected Ring Ditch SU 3505 8123 No profile detected Ring Ditch SU 3571 8121 No profile detected Earthwork SU 3534 7998 Recorded as extant, not visible on lidar Earthwork SU 3535 7967 Recorded as extant, ?mound ~ 10cm Ring Ditch SU 3443 7920 Irregular profile, ?animal damage Earthwork SU 3667 8211 Disc barrow, mound ~33cm high Earthwork SU 3622 8008 No profile detected Ring Ditch SU 3717 8049 No profile detected 7DEOH%DUURZ3URILOHV$OLVWLQJRIDOOEDUURZVLVJLYHQLQ$SSHQGL[

Grid Reference

Profile

)XUWKHU IHDWXUHV REVHUYHG LQ WKLV DUHD DQG WR D OHVVHU H[WHQW DFURVV WKH RWKHU ILHOG V\VWHPV ZHUH GHSUHVVLRQV ZLWKLQ D QXPEHU RI WKH ILHOGV 7KHVH GHSUHVVLRQV DUH ZLGHO\ GLVWULEXWHG DFURVV WKH 'RZQV DQG PDQ\ DUH XQGDWHG H[WUDFWLRQ SLWV IRU VDQG JUDYHO DQG SUREDEO\ PDUO  &KDON VRLOV DUH UDSLGO\ GHSOHWHG RI QXWULHQWV RQFH EURXJKW LQWR DQ DJULFXOWXUDO UHJLPH DQG IHUWLOLW\ FDQ EH PDLQWDLQHGE\PDUOLQJWKURXJKGHHSSORXJKLQJRULQWKH SDVWE\GLJJLQJSLWVWREULQJXSIUHVKQXWULHQWULFKFKDON WR IHUWLOL]H RU µPDUO¶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µ7KHZKROHRI WKH DQFLHQW ILHOGV RQ *UHHQ 'RZQ LV QRZ UHJXODUO\ SORXJKHGDQGQRVXUYLYLQJO\QFKHWVDUHNQRZQ¶(YHQVR WKH ILHOGV KDYH VXUYLYHG LQ D IRUP VXIILFLHQW WR EH GHWHFWHGE\OLGDU)LJXUH  7KHVH ILHOGV DSSHDU WR KDYH D OHYHO RI RUJDQLVDWLRQ WKDW FDQ QR ORQJHU EH LGHQWLILHG HOVHZKHUH ZLWKLQ WKH VXUYH\ DUHD ZLWK EUHDNV LQ WKH ILHOG EDQNV SURYLGLQJ DFFHVV WR DGMDFHQWILHOGV)DLQWWUDFHVRIFURVVEDQNVZHUHGHWHFWHG ZLWKLQDQXPEHURIWKHODUJHUUHFWDQJXODUILHOGVDQGLWLV SRVVLEOH WKDW WKHVH UHSUHVHQW HDUOLHU ILHOGV WKDW ZHUH UHXVHGDQGH[WHQGHGLQWKH5RPDQSHULRG)LJXUH 



'DWDSURYLGHGFRXUWHV\RI1(5&$56)WKH1DWXUDO(QYLURQPHQW5HVHDUFK&RXQFLO¶V $LUERUQH5HVHDUFKDQG6XUYH\)DFLOLW\ )LJXUH/RFDWLRQRIVLWHVGLVFXVVHGLQWKHWH[W

‹$VKPROHDQ0XVHXP8QLYHUVLW\RI2[IRUG )LJXUH([WDQWILHOGV\VWHPVRQ*UHHQ'RZQ&KLOGUH\1RYHPEHU



)LJXUH  )LHOG 6\VWHPV RQ *UHHQ 'RZQ &KLOGUH\ XQGHU PRGHUQFXOWLYDWLRQ0DU 105  7KH ILHOGV KDYHFRQWLQXHGWREHSORXJKHGWR WKH SUHVHQW GD\ DQG DUH FRQVLGHUHGGHVWUR\HG ‹&URZQ&RS\ULJKW(+

)LJXUH  *UHHQ 'RZQ ILHOG V\VWHPV UHFRUGHG E\ OLGDU $ PDMRU ILHOG D[LV UXQV QRUWKHDVW WR VRXWK ZHVWDFURVVWKHFHQWUHRIWKHLPDJH 'DWD SURYLGHG FRXUWHV\ RI 1(5& $56) WKH 1DWXUDO (QYLURQPHQW $LUERUQH 5HVHDUFK &RXQFLO¶V 5HVHDUFKDQG6XUYH\)DFLOLW\



'DWDSURYLGHGFRXUWHV\RI1(5&$56)WKH1DWXUDO(QYLURQPHQW5HVHDUFK&RXQFLO¶V$LUERUQH5HVHDUFKDQG6XUYH\)DFLOLW\ )LJXUH([SDQGHGYLHZRI*UHHQ'RZQILHOGV\VWHPV

'DWDSURYLGHGFRXUWHV\RI1(5&$56)WKH1DWXUDO(QYLURQPHQW5HVHDUFK&RXQFLO¶V$LUERUQH5HVHDUFKDQG6XUYH\)DFLOLW\ )LJXUH/RFDWLRQRISRVVLEOHSORXJKHGGRZQFURVVEDQNVDUURZHG 

0HUH(QG'RZQ68

)LJXUHD 7KHOLGDUGDWDKDVHQDEOHGWKLVIHDWXUHWR EH EURNHQ GRZQ LQWR LQGLYLGXDO FRPSRQHQWV VKRZLQJ RYHUO\LQJ EDQNV UXQQLQJ DSSUR[LPDWHO\ QRUWKVRXWK DQG HDVWZHVW JLYLQJ WKH LPSUHVVLRQ RI LQWHUQDO GLYLVLRQV 7KHVHDUHWUDQVFULEHGLQ)LJXUHE ZLWKWKHSRVVLEOH HQFORVXUH RXWOLQHG $ VOLJKW NLQN LQ WKH QRUWKHDVW EDQN VXJJHVWVLWZDVUHVSHFWLQJDQHDUOLHUIHDWXUH

$ UHFWLOLQHDU IHDWXUH ODUJHU WKDQ DQ LQGLYLGXDO FRD[LDO ILHOGDQGSRVVLEO\DQHQFORVXUHPHDVXULQJDSSUR[LPDWHO\ P [ P ZDV LGHQWLILHG O\LQJ WR WKH VRXWK RI WKH 0HUH (QG 'RZQ ILHOG V\VWHPV )LJXUH   7KH FURSPDUNV KDG EHHQ WUDQVFULEHG DV D VHULHV RI LUUHJXODU EDQNVWKDWDSSHDUHGWRIRUPIUDJPHQWVRIDODUJHUV\VWHP



'DWD SURYLGHG FRXUWHV\ RI 1(5& $56) WKH 1DWXUDO (QYLURQPHQW 5HVHDUFK &RXQFLO¶V $LUERUQH5HVHDUFKDQG6XUYH\)DFLOLW\ )LJXUH3RVVLEOHHQFORVXUHRQ0HUH(QG 'RZQ

'DWDSURYLGHGFRXUWHV\RI1(5&$56)WKH1DWXUDO (QYLURQPHQW5HVHDUFK&RXQFLO¶V$LUERUQH5HVHDUFKDQG 6XUYH\)DFLOLW\/DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹ (QJOLVK+HULWDJH 1XWZRRG'RZQ68

'DWDSURYLGHGFRXUWHV\RI1(5&$56)WKH1DWXUDO (QYLURQPHQW5HVHDUFK&RXQFLO¶V$LUERUQH5HVHDUFKDQG 6XUYH\)DFLOLW\

)LJXUHD )HDWXUHDVWUDQVFULEHGIURPDHULDOSKRWRJUDSKV

)LJXUHE IHDWXUHDVWUDQVFULEHGIURPOLGDU

1XWZRRG'RZQ68

'XULQJ WKHLU ILHOG LQYHVWLJDWLRQV WKH %)5* IRXQG WKH ILHOGVWREHOHYHOOHGIUDJPHQWDU\DQGZLWKDQRYHUDOOSODQ WKDW ZDVGLIILFXOWWRGLVWLQJXLVK%RZGHQ HWDOE   ([FDYDWLRQV E\ WKH *URXS DFURVV WZR O\QFKHWV VXUYLYLQJ ZLWKLQ WKH VPDOO DUHD RI ZRRGODQG NQRZQ DV 1XWZRRG GHWHUPLQHG D WHUPLQXV SRVW TXHP RI HDUO\

7KHILHOGV\VWHPVRQ1XWZRRG'RZQH[WHQGQRUWKZDUGV IURP0HUH(QG'RZQ7KH/'03DGGHGWRWKHQXPEHU RI SUHYLRXVO\ LGHQWLILHG ILHOG EDQNV DQG WKLV ZDV IXUWKHU LQFUHDVHGE\WKHOLGDUVXUYH\)LJXUHDQG 



'DWDSURYLGHGFRXUWHV\RI1(5&$56)WKH1DWXUDO(QYLURQPHQW5HVHDUFK&RXQFLO¶V$LUERUQH5HVHDUFKDQG6XUYH\)DFLOLW\ )LJXUH)LHOG6\VWHPVRQ1XWZRRG'RZQORRNLQJHDVWWRZDUGV/DQJ'RZQ,OOXPLQDWHGIURPWKHQRUWK

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

'DWDSURYLGHGFRXUWHV\RI1(5&$56)WKH1DWXUDO (QYLURQPHQW5HVHDUFK&RXQFLO¶V$LUERUQH5HVHDUFKDQG 6XUYH\)DFLOLW\ /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH )LJXUH7UDQVFULEHGILHOGV\VWHPVRQ1XWZRRG 'RZQ1RUWKDWWKHWRS



2QHRIWKHVHQRUWKVRXWKEDQNVUXQVWKURXJK2OG:DUUHQ EDQMRHQFORVXUHORFDWLRQFLUFOHG SUREDEO\RYHUO\LQJDQG WKHUHIRUHSRVWGDWLQJWKLVHQFORVXUH7KHEDQMRHQFORVXUH ZDVQRWGHWHFWHGE\OLGDU

2OG:DUUHQ68 7KH FRD[LDO ILHOG V\VWHPV WR WKH QRUWK RI 2OG :DUUHQ H[WHQG HDVWZDUGV DQG VRXWKZDUGV IURP WKRVH DOUHDG\ GLVFXVVHG DW 0HUH (QG 'RZQ )LJXUH   DQG DUH SRVVLEO\DFRQWLQXDWLRQRIWKHVDPHV\VWHP7KHUHPDLQV RI H[WUDFWLRQ SLWV VHHQ DV FLUFXODU DQG VXEFLUFXODU GHSUHVVLRQVDUHH[WHQVLYHDFURVVWKHVXUYH\DUHD

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

'DWDSURYLGHGFRXUWHV\RI1(5&$56)WKH1DWXUDO(QYLURQPHQW5HVHDUFK&RXQFLO¶V$LUERUQH5HVHDUFKDQG6XUYH\)DFLOLW\ )LJXUH)LHOGV\VWHPVDW2OG:DUUHQLOOXPLQDWHGIURPWKHZHVW2OG:DUUHQ)DUPOLHVWRZDUGVWKHFHQWUHRIWKHLPDJH



'DWDSURYLGHGFRXUWHV\RI1(5&$56)WKH1DWXUDO(QYLURQPHQW5HVHDUFK&RXQFLO¶V$LUERUQH5HVHDUFKDQG6XUYH\)DFLOLW\ /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH )LJXUH&RPELQHG/'03DQGOLGDUWUDQVFULSWLRQ7KHFLUFOHGHQRWHVWKHORFDWLRQRI2OG:DUUHQEDQMRHQFORVXUHZKLFK ZDVQRWGHWHFWHGE\OLGDU

FLUFXODU IHDWXUH WUDQVFULEHG IURP DHULDO SKRWRJUDSKV )LJXUHE DQGRQHRIWKHVPDOOHUQRUWKVRXWKEDQNV ZDV DOVR XQGHWHFWHG 7KLV ZDV FRQILUPHG E\ REVHUYLQJ WKH IHDWXUHV ZKLOH WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI OLJKW ZDV URWDWHG WKURXJK ž 7KH HORQJDWHG IRUP RI WKH ILHOGV VXJJHVWV WKH\DUHSUREDEO\5RPDQLQGDWH7D\ORU 

(DVW*DUVWRQ'RZQ68 $ VPDOOHQFORVXUHRUSRVVLEOHVHWWOHPHQW ZLWKDVVRFLDWHG ILHOGV ZDV GHWHFWHG RQ (DVW *DUVWRQ 'RZQ )LJXUH D 7KHVLWHLVYLHZHGORRNLQJHDVWDQGLOOXPLQDWHG IURP WKH QRUWKHDVW DW ž /LGDU GLG QRW GHWHFW WKH VPDOO



'DWDSURYLGHGFRXUWHV\RI1(5&$56)WKH1DWXUDO(QYLURQPHQW5HVHDUFK&RXQFLO¶V$LUERUQH5HVHDUFKDQG6XUYH\)DFLOLW\ )LJXUHD )LHOGVDQGSRVVLEOHVHWWOHPHQWRQ(DVW*DUVWRQ'RZQ

)LJXUHE )HDWXUHVWUDQVFULEHGIURP DHULDOSKRWRJUDSKV 'DWDSURYLGHGFRXUWHV\RI1(5&$56)WKH 1DWXUDO(QYLURQPHQW5HVHDUFK&RXQFLO¶V $LUERUQH5HVHDUFKDQG6XUYH\)DFLOLW\ /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK +HULWDJH



LPDJH IURP WKH VRXWKHDVW DW ž LW DOORZHG WKH UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHHQFORVXUHDQGWKHILHOGVWREHUH HYDOXDWHGVKRZLQJWKHILHOGEDQNVWRRYHUOLHWKRVHRIWKH ZRRG )LJXUH F  7KLV IHDWXUH LV YHU\ VLPLODU LQ IRUP DQG VL]H DW P [ P WR DQ HQFORVXUH ORFDWHG DSSUR[LPDWHO\NPWRWKHQRUWKHDVWLQYHVWLJDWHGWKURXJK JHRSK\VLFV GLVFXVVHG IXUWKHU LQ &KDSWHU   ZKLFK VKRZHG HYLGHQFH IRU RFFXSDWLRQ ,W LV SRVVLEOH WKHUHIRUH WKDW WKH /DQJ 'RZQ HQFORVXUH LV PXFK HDUOLHU DQG ZDV ODWHUUHXVHGDVDZRRGERXQGDU\

/DQJ'RZQ68 $UHFWLOLQHDUIHDWXUHPHDVXULQJP[PZDVGHWHFWHG E\ OLGDU WR WKH VRXWK RI D PRGHUQ SODQWDWLRQ RQ /DQJ 'RZQ)LJXUHD 7KLVZDVQRWSORWWHGIURPDHULDO SKRWRJUDSKV DQG WKH  2UGQDQFH 6XUYH\ PDS VKRZV WKH IHDWXUH WR EH WKH UHPDLQV RI 2OG :DUUHQ :RRG  $ IXUWKHU VPDOO GLWFKHG IHDWXUH PHDVXULQJ DSSUR[LPDWHO\ P [ P ZDV GHWHFWHG ZLWKLQ WKH HQFORVXUH WR WKH QRUWK3DUDOOHOEDQNVLQWHUVHFWWKHIHDWXUHDQGVOLJKWWUDFHV FRQWLQXH HDVWZDUGV %\ URWDWLQJ DQG LOOXPLQDWLQJ WKH

D 

E 

'DWD SURYLGHG FRXUWHV\ RI 1(5& $56) WKH 1DWXUDO (QYLURQPHQW 5HVHDUFK &RXQFLO¶V $LUERUQH 5HVHDUFK DQG 6XUYH\)DFLOLW\

‹&URZQ&RS\ULJKWDQGODQGPDUN,QIRUPDWLRQ*URXS /LPLWHG $OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG

)LJXUH D  5HFWLOLQHDU HQFORVXUH LQ %RZHUV :RRG E  )HDWXUH VKRZQ DV 2OG :DUUHQ :RRG RQ  26 PDS F  7KH IRUPHU RXWOLQH RI 2OG :DUUHQ :RRG ZLWK RYHUO\LQJ ILHOG V\VWHPV 7KH UHIOHFWHG OLGDU VLJQDO IURP WKH ZRRGODQG FDQRS\ DQG VXUURXQGLQJ VFUXE DQG WKH YHUWLFDO H[DJJHUDWLRQ DSSOLHG WR WKH GDWD KDV UHVXOWHGLQWUHHVKDYLQJDVDZWRRWKSURILOH F  'DWDSURYLGHGFRXUWHV\RI1(5&$56)WKH1DWXUDO(QYLURQPHQW5HVHDUFK &RXQFLO¶V$LUERUQH5HVHDUFKDQG6XUYH\)DFLOLW\



7KH 2UGQDQFH 6XUYH\ GUDZLQJ IRU /DPERXUQ   VKRZV WKH DUHD DV URXJK JURXQG RU VFUXE DQG LW ZDV UHFRUGHGDVSDVWXUHGXULQJWKH/DQG8WLOLVDWLRQ6XUYH\,W LVSRVVLEOHWKDWZKDWHYHUXQGHUOLHVWKHVHLUUHJXODUIHDWXUHV UHVXOWHGLQWKHODQGEHLQJDYRLGHGIRUDUDEOHDJULFXOWXUH

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

'DWDSURYLGHGFRXUWHV\RI1(5&$56)WKH1DWXUDO(QYLURQPHQW5HVHDUFK&RXQFLO¶V$LUERUQH5HVHDUFKDQG6XUYH\)DFLOLW\ )LJXUH)HDWXUHVDW6WDQFRPEH)DUP7KHIDUPEXLOGLQJVOLHLQWKHFHQWUHRIWKHLPDJH



'DWDSURYLGHGFRXUWHV\RI1(5&$56)WKH1DWXUDO(QYLURQPHQW5HVHDUFK&RXQFLO¶V$LUERUQH5HVHDUFKDQG6XUYH\)DFLOLW\ )LJXUH/RFDWLRQRISRVVLEOH5RPDQEXLOGLQJFLUFOHG RQ6WDQFRPEH'RZQ7KHFLUFXODUIHDWXUHGLUHFWO\WRWKHQRUWKHDVWLV DVPDOOPRGHUQUHVHUYRLU

5H(YDOXDWLQJ(DUOLHU6WXGLHV (QFORVXUHV

7KHORFDWLRQJLYHQIRUDQGFRUUHVSRQGWR IUDJPHQWVRIEDQNVUHFRUGHGE\OLGDU,QDGGLWLRQ DQG  OLH ZLWKLQ ILHOG V\VWHPV ,W LV SRVVLEOH WKDW IUDJPHQWDU\ILHOGEDQNVZHUHPLVLGHQWLILHGGXULQJHDUOLHU VXUYH\V RU WKDW ILHOG EDQNV LQFRUSRUDWH RU PDVN HDUOLHU HQFORVXUHVZLWKLQWKHILHOGV\VWHPV

7KH HQKDQFHG GDWD VHW SURYLGHG E\ OLGDU FRYHUDJH KDV DOORZHGDUHHYDOXDWLRQRIIHDWXUHVWKDWZHUHLGHQWLILHGE\ SUHYLRXVDXWKRULWLHV%UDGOH\DQG(OOLVRQ5LFKDUGV  EXWQRWWUDQVFULEHGE\WKH/'037KHVHDUHJLYHQ LQ7DEOHDQGWKHLUORFDWLRQVSORWWHGLQ)LJXUH

Monument No.

Monument Type

Reference

983977

Settlement

Bradley and Ellison (1975)

623143

Settlement

Bradley and Ellison (1975)

623192

Enclosure

Richards (1978)

623188

Settlement

Bradley and Ellison (1975)

623189

Settlement

Bradley and Ellison (1975)

623214

Rectangular enclosure

Richards (1978)

7DEOH(QFORVXUHVUHFRUGHGE\SUHYLRXVDXWKRULWLHV



/DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH )LJXUH/RFDWLRQRIHQFORVXUHVXQUHFRUGHGE\WKH/'03

7KHYLOODJHVRI/DPERXUQ(DVWEXU\DQG(DVW*DUVWRQ ZHUH LQ H[LVWHQFH IURP DW OHDVW WKH HDUO\ PHGLHYDO SHULRG ZLWK WKH ODQG OLQLQJ WKH YDOOH\ VLGHV XQGHU SRVW5RPDQ FXOWLYDWLRQ ORQJ EHIRUH WKDW RI WKH KLJK GRZQODQG7KHPDMRULW\RIWKHIHDWXUHVWKDWVXUYLYHG WR EH UHFRUGHG ZHUH PHGLHYDOSRVW PHGLHYDO LQ GDWH LQFOXGLQJ WKH SUREDEOH UHPDLQV RI %RFNKDPSWRQ GHVHUWHGPHGLHYDOYLOODJH)LJXUH DQGDVHFWLRQ RIZDWHUPHDGRZDW68)LJXUH 

7KH/DPERXUQ9DOOH\ 7KH GDWD SURYLGHG E\ WKH (QYLURQPHQW $JHQF\ IROORZHGDQDUURZFRUULGRUVWUHWFKLQJIRUNPDORQJ WKH /DPERXUQ 9DOOH\ IURP /DPERXUQ YLOODJH WR WKH RXWVNLUWVRI*UHDW6KHIIRUG)LJXUH 7KHJURXQG VDPSOLQJ GLVWDQFH RI P RIIHUHG JUHDWHU UHVROXWLRQ WKDQ WKDW SURYLGHG E\ WKH 1(5& GDWD DQG KDG WKH SRWHQWLDOWRGHWHFWIHDWXUHVXQUHFRUGHGE\WKH/'03



‹(QYLURQPHQW$JHQF\FRS\ULJKWDQGRUGDWDEDVHULJKW$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG )LJXUH9LHZORRNLQJHDVWDORQJWKH/DPERXUQ9DOOH\/LGDUGHULYHGLPDJH

‹(QYLURQPHQW$JHQF\FRS\ULJKWDQGRUGDWDEDVHULJKW$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG )LJXUH7KHSUREDEOHHDUWKZRUNVRI%RFNKDPSWRQGHVHUWHGPHGLHYDOYLOODJHLQWKHIRUHJURXQGVKRZLQJKRXVHSODWIRUPV ERXQGDULHVDQGWUDFNZD\V7KHIULQJHVRI/DPERXUQYLOODJHOLHLQWKHQRUWKZHVWFRUQHURIWKHLPDJH'DWDLOOXPLQDWHGIURPWKH HDVWYLHZHGORRNLQJQRUWK



‹(QYLURQPHQW$JHQF\FRS\ULJKWDQGRUGDWDEDVHULJKW$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG )LJXUH)RUPHUZDWHUPHDGRZVOLQLQJWKH5LYHU/DPERXUQ

7KHILHOGVDUHVKRZQLOOXPLQDWHGIURPWKHQRUWKHDVWDQG YLHZHG ORRNLQJ QRUWK 7KH EDQNV KDYH EHHQ RXWOLQHG LQ WKH LPDJH RQ WKH ULJKW IRU FODULW\ 7KHVH ILHOGV ZHUH QRW WUDQVFULEHG E\ WKH /'03 DOWKRXJK D IUDJPHQW RI D FRD[LDOV\VWHP ZDVUHFRUGHG PWRWKHVRXWKDQGWKHVH PLJKWRQFHKDYH IRUPHGFRPSRQHQWVRIDODUJHUV\VWHP $QH[DPLQDWLRQRIWLWKHDQGHQFORVXUHPDSVE\3HDNHDQG %LUNEHFNVKRZHGWKLVDUHDKDGUHYHUWHGWRSDVWXUHIURPDW OHDVWFRQWLQXLQJLQWRWKH ¶V7KH ORZHUVORSHV ZHUHXQGHUWKHSORXJKE\WKHWLPHRIWKH/DQG8WLOLVDWLRQ 6XUYH\DQGWKHILHOGVVKRZQKHUHKDYHVXUYLYHGRZLQJWR WKHVWHHSQHVVRIWKHVORSH,WUHPDLQVWRGD\RQHRIWKHIHZ DUHDVRIODQGXQGHUJUDVV

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

D 

E 

‹(QYLURQPHQW$JHQF\FRS\ULJKWDQGRUGDWDEDVHULJKW$OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG )LJXUH:HVW)LHOG'RZQILHOGV\VWHPV(DVW*DUVWRQORRNLQJVRXWKHDVWD WKFHQWXU\VWULSO\QFKHWVE 3UHKLVWRULFRU 5RPDQFRD[LDOILHOGVRXWOLQHG 



JURXQGVXUIDFHEHQHDWKVKRZHGWKDWWKHO\QFKHWVUHFRUGHG RQ DHULDO SKRWRJUDSKV KDG QRW VXUYLYHG 7KH O\QFKHWV DV WUDQVFULEHG E\ WKH /'03 LQ WKLV ORFDWLRQ ODFNHG FURVV EDQNV DQG DUH SUREDEO\ VKRUWOLYHG PHGLHYDO RU SRVW PHGLHYDOIHDWXUHV

6XPPDU\ /LGDU KDV GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW WKH SRWHQWLDO FXUUHQWO\ UHPDLQVWRHQKDQFHWKHIHDWXUHVRQWKH%HUNVKLUH'RZQV EH\RQG ZKDWLVSRVVLEOHIURPFRQYHQWLRQDODHULDOVXUYH\ HYHQZKHUHGHVWUXFWLRQDSSHDUVWREHDEVROXWH

7KH GHWHFWLRQ RI IRUPHU GLWFKHV DQG GLWFKHG HQFORVXUHV ZDV OHVV VXFFHVVIXO ZLWK RQO\ WKH YLVLEO\ H[WDQW VHFWLRQV RI(DVW'LWFKLGHQWLILDEOH,WLVSUREDEOHWKDWWKHHQFORVXUH EDQNV QHYHU UHDFKHG WKH KHLJKW RI WKH O\QFKHWV DQG WKH VLOWLQJXSRIWKHGLWFKHVDQGVXEVHTXHQWOHYHOOLQJWKURXJK SORXJKLQJ QRZ SURYLGHV LQVXIILFLHQW GHILQLWLRQ IRU WKHLU GHWHFWLRQ )RU WKHVH VLWHV FRQYHQWLRQDO DHULDO VXUYH\ VWLOO KDVDUROHWRSOD\ZLWKIXUWKHUVXSSRUWIURPJHRSK\VLFDO VXUYH\

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

7KH DELOLW\ WR URWDWH DQG WLOW WKH LPDJH HQDEOHG WKH UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHILHOGEDQNVDQGRWKHUIHDWXUHVWR EH GHWHUPLQHG DQG DOWHUQDWLYH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQV WR EH SXW IRUZDUGIRUH[DPSOHRQ/DQJ'RZQS 

7KLVDQGWKHSUHYLRXVWZRFKDSWHUVZHUHFRQFHUQHGZLWK UHEXLOGLQJODQGVFDSHVZKHUHGHVWUXFWLRQDSSHDUVDEVROXWH ,Q WKH IROORZLQJ FKDSWHU ZRRGODQG LV H[DPLQHG IRU LWV SRWHQWLDOWRSUHVHUYHVLWHV

$W /HWFRPEH %RZHUV WKH SRWHQWLDO RI OLGDU WR SHQHWUDWH WKURXJK WKH ZRRGODQG FDQRS\ VXIILFLHQWO\ WR GHWHFW WKH



 7KHFURSPDUNUHPDLQVRIIUDJPHQWDU\O\QFKHWV RIXQNQRZQGDWHZHUHUHFRUGHGE\WKH/'03LQILHOGVWR WKH QRUWK DQG LW ZDV SRVVLEOH PRUH FRPSOHWH O\QFKHWV VXUYLYHGZLWKLQWKHZRRGODQGIURPZKLFKDOD\RXWFRXOG EHGHWHUPLQHGDQGDQDSSUR[LPDWHGDWHDVVLJQHG

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

7UHHV 0RVW %ULWLVK ZRRGODQG WUHHV DUH FDSDEOH RI UHJHQHUDWLRQ DIWHUEHLQJFXW7KLVDWWULEXWHKDVEHHQPDGHXVHRIRYHU WKHFHQWXULHVLQWKHSURFHVVHVRISROODUGLQJDQGFRSSLFLQJ 3ROODUGHG WUHHV DUH FXW P DERYH JURXQG ZLWK QHZ JURZWKVSURXWLQJIURPWKDWSRLQWZKHUHDVFRSSLFHGWUHHV DUH FXW GRZQ WR DOPRVW JURXQG OHYHO ZLWK QHZ JURZWK VSURXWLQJ IURP WKH EDVH RU VWRRO  %\ UHFXWWLQJ DW LQWHUYDOV RI EHWZHHQ ±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

7KH VXUYH\V ZHUH XQGHUWDNHQ GXULQJ WKH ZLQWHU PRQWKV ZKHQ WKH YHJHWDWLRQ ZDV ORZ $ VLPSOH SDFLQJ PHWKRG ZDVXVHGWRFDOFXODWHGLVWDQFHDQGDOVRWKHH[WHQWRIDQ\

7KH W\SH RI ZRRGODQG PDQDJHPHQW EHLQJ SUDFWLFHG LV RIWHQ UHIOHFWHG LQ WKH QDPH RI WKH ZRRG ZLWK WKH ZRRG



7UDLQLQJDQGKDQGERRN7KH:RRGODQG$UFKDHRORJ\+DQGERRN SURYLGHGE\WKH$21%>ZZZQRUWKZHVVH[GRZQVRUJXN@



:KLWH-(VWLPDWLQJWKH$JHRI/DUJHDQG9HWHUDQ7UHHVLQ %ULWDLQ)RUHVWU\&RPPLVVLRQ,QIRUPDWLRQ1RWH



)LJXUH$OGZRUWK6WUHDWOH\*ULP¶V'LWFK2FWREHU

HOHPHQWUHIHUULQJWRZRRGODQGJURZQIRUWLPEHUZKHUHDV FRSVH LQGLFDWHV FRSSLFLQJ IRU ZRRG WKH XVHV RI ZKLFK LQFOXGHZRRGIXHOKXUGOHPDNLQJEXLOGLQJPDWHULDOVDQG FKDUFRDO

&ROGULGJH&RSVH*UHDW6KHIIRUG 2YHUYLHZ &ROGULGJH &RSVH LV D VPDOO DUHD RI PL[HG GHFLGXRXV QDWLYHZRRGODQGRIDSSUR[LPDWHO\KDO\LQJNPWRWKH VRXWK RI *UHDW 6KHIIRUG 7KH FRSVH ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG E\ WKH WLPH RI WKH 5RFTXH VXUYH\ LQ  DQG KDV DQ +/& GHVLJQDWLRQRIDQFLHQWZRRGODQGZLWKWKHPRVWVRXWKHUO\ SRUWLRQ GHVLJQDWHG DV VHFRQGDU\ ZRRGODQG 7KHUH LV HYLGHQFH WKDW WKH ZRRGODQG ZDV PDQDJHG LQ WKH SDVW SRVVLEO\ IRU ZRRG IXHO DQG IHQFLQJ 7RGD\ WKH ZRRG LV XVHGSULPDULO\IRUWKHEUHHGLQJRIELUGVIRUWKHVKRRW

*URXQG)ORUD 7KH SODQW VSHFLHV SUHVHQW LQ WKH JURXQG IORUD RI D ZRRG DUH LQIOXHQFHG E\ WKH ZRRG¶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

7KHDUFKDHRORJ\VXUYH\WRRNSODFHEHWZHHQ)HEUXDU\DQG 0DUFK  DQG WKH HFRORJ\ VXUYH\ LQ $SULO  7UDYHUVHV ZHUH UXQ DW P LQWHUYDOV 7KH FRPSDUWPHQWV VXUYH\HGDUHVKRZQLQ)LJXUH .QRZQ$UFKDHRORJ\

(DFK VXUYH\HG ZRRG ZDV FKHFNHG LQ WKH VSULQJ SULRU WR WKHZLQWHUVXUYH\WRHQVXUHWKDW$:,6DSSOLFDEOHWRWKLV JHRJUDSKLFDOORFDWLRQVRXWKHDVW(QJODQG  ZHUHSUHVHQW DQGWKDWJHQHUDOO\VSHFLHVVXFKDVQHWWOHV8UWLFDGLRLFD  DQG JRRVHJUDVV *DOLXP DSDULQH  ZKLFK LQGLFDWH WKH SUHVHQFH RI SKRVSKDWHV ZHUH DEVHQW $V DQFLHQW ZRRGV DUHVKRUWRISKRVSKDWHWKHLU SUHVHQFHLVVHHQWR LQGLFDWH KXPDQDFWLYLW\VRPHWLPHVVHYHUDOFHQWXULHVHDUOLHU

/LQHDUGLWFKHVRIDQXQNQRZQGDWHZHUHUHFRUGHGE\WKH /'03WRWKHVRXWKRIWKH&RSVHDQGVPDOOIUDJPHQWVRI EDQNV SUREDEO\ WKH UHPDLQV RI PHGLHYDO VWULS O\QFKHWV ZHUH UHFRUGHG WR WKH VRXWK DQG QRUWKHDVW (UPLQ 6WUHHW OLHV DSSUR[LPDWHO\ NP WR WKH VRXWK 7KH FRSVH RQFH H[WHQGHG IXUWKHU QRUWKHDVWZDUGV GHILQHG RQ HLWKHU VLGH E\ URDGV DQG D FURSPDUNHG ULQJ GLWFK DQG DQ H[WDQW



‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\

)LJXUH6XUYH\HGFRPSDUWPHQWVZLWKLQ&ROGULGJH&RSVH

%URQ]H $JH EDUURZ IRUPHUO\ SUHVHUYHG ZLWKLQ WKH ZRRGODQGQRZOLHRQRSHQODQGWRWKHQRUWKHDVW3HDNH 5LFKDUGV 

0DQ0DGH)HDWXUHV

/RQJHYLW\RIWKH:RRGODQG

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

3LWV

7KH FRSVH WDNHV LWV QDPH IURP WKH PDQRU RI &ROGULGJH ZKLFKZDVPHUJHGZLWK:HVW6KHIIRUGDWVRPHWLPHDIWHU  7KH HDUOLHVW GRFXPHQWDU\ UHIHUHQFH IRU SRVVLEOH ZRRGODQG DFWLYLWLHV LQ WKH DUHD FRPHV IURP WKH FRO HOHPHQW LQ &ROGULGJH  D UHIHUHQFH WR FKDUFRDO EXUQLQJ ZLWK ULGJH GHULYLQJ IURP WKH ROG (QJOLVK ZRUG +\UFJ *HOOLQJ  7ZRDVKFRSSLFHVWRROVJURZLQJRQWKHZRRGEDQNVZHUH DJHG EHWZHHQ  \HDUV ROG VXJJHVWLQJ WKH ZRRGEDQNV ZHUHFRQVWUXFWHG LQWKHWK ±WKFHQWXULHV $ 6WUXJQHOO SODQW ELRORJLVW SHUV FRPP  $ WRWDO RI WKLUWHHQ$:,6ZHUHUHFRUGHGLQ&ROGULGJH&RSVHGXULQJ WKH VXUYH\ ZLWK WKH KLJKHVW QXPEHUV IRXQG LQ &RPSDUWPHQWV % DQG ' DQG LQ SDUWLFXODU DORQJ WKH QDUURZWRQJXHRIODQGLQWKHVRXWKZHVWRI&RPSDUWPHQW % $PRQJVW WKH VSHFLHV ZDV +HUE 3DULV UHJDUGHG DV D µORQJHYLW\ LQGLFDWRU¶ VXJJHVWLQJ WKH ZRRGODQG LV SDUWLFXODUO\ ROG %RZHQ   6SHFLHV VXFK DV QHWWOHV 8UWLFD GLRLFD  DQG JRRVHJUDVV *DOLXP DSDULQH  ZHUH DEVHQWIURPWKHPDMRULW\RIWKHZRRG

(DUWKZRUN(QFORVXUH 7KH PRVW SURPLQHQW IHDWXUH ZLWKLQ WKH FRSVH LV D UHFWLOLQHDU HQFORVXUH LQ FRPSDUWPHQW $ )LJXUHV  DQG   7KLV FRPSULVHV DQ HDUWKHQ SODWIRUP DSSUR[LPDWHO\ P[PZLWKEDQNVUDQJLQJIURPDSSUR[LPDWHO\P LQ KHLJKW LQ WKH HDVW WR EHWZHHQ ±FP WRZDUGV WKH QRUWKZHVW7KHHQFORVXUHLVVXUURXQGHGRQWKHUHPDLQLQJ WKUHH VLGHV E\ D VXEVWDQWLDO GLWFK ,QLWLDO LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI WKHIHDWXUHLQODWHZLQWHUFRQFOXGHGWKDWGDPDJHKDG RFFXUUHGLQWKHQRUWKZHVWZKHUHWKHEDQNVZHUHUHGXFHG SRVVLEO\ WKURXJK DFWLYLWLHV LQ WKH UHJLRQ RI WKH WUDFNZD\ DQGWKHSKHDVDQWUHOHDVHSHQ



 6XUYH\

‹ &URZQ FRS\ULJKW  2UGQDQFH

)LJXUH  )HDWXUHV UHFRUGHG LQ &ROGULGJH &RSVH 6HH $SSHQGL[  IRUDQXPEHUHGSORWDQGGHVFULSWLRQ RIIHDWXUHV

 )LJXUH(QFORVXUHLQ&ROGULGJH&RSVH

7KH HFRORJ\ KRZHYHU GLUHFWO\ FRQWUDGLFWHG WKH RULJLQDO ILQGLQJV 7KH QRUWKZHVW RI WKH HQFORVXUH LV WKH RQO\ XQGLVWXUEHG DUHD FRQWDLQLQJ WKH VDPH $:,6 DV HOVHZKHUHLQWKHZRRGODQGZKHUHDVWKHVHHPLQJO\ ZHOO SUHVHUYHG VRXWKHUQ H[WHQW ODFNV $:,6 DQG KDV D GHQVH FRYHULQJ RI GRJ¶V PHUFXU\ 0HUFXULDOLV SHUHQQLV  LQGLFDWLQJGLVWXUEHGJURXQG 7KLVSODQWH[WHQGVIURPWKH FHQWUH RI WKH HQFORVXUH DQG LQWR EXW QRW EH\RQG WKH ERWWRPRIWKHGLWFKLQWKHVRXWKHDVW7KHRXWHUVLGHRIWKH GLWFK DQG WKH VXUURXQGLQJ ODQG KDV WKH VDPH $:,6 DV HOVHZKHUH 'RJ¶V PHUFXU\ EHQHILWV IURP D KLJK S+ VXJJHVWLQJDGLIIHUHQWVRLOLVRYHUO\LQJRUPL[HGZLWKWKH FOD\ZLWKIOLQWV WKH PRVW SUREDEOH VRXUFH FRPLQJ IURP WKHXQGHUO\LQJFKDON,WQRZDSSHDUVWKDWLWLVWKHVRXWKHUQ H[WHQW WKDW KDV EHHQ FRQVLGHUDEO\ GLVWXUEHG ZKLOH WKH QRUWKHDVWHUQVHFWRULVPRUHUHSUHVHQWDWLYHRIWKHRULJLQDO IHDWXUH DOEHLW HURGHG RYHU WLPH 3KHDVDQW DFWLYLW\ KDV EHHQ FRQVLGHUHG IRU WKH FKDQJH LQ YHJHWDWLRQ KRZHYHU VWXGLHVLQWRWKHHIIHFWVRISKHDVDQWDFWLYLW\RQ ZRRGODQG YHJHWDWLRQKDVVKRZQWKDWWKLVFDXVHVDUHGXFWLRQLQGRJ¶V PHUFXU\ UDWKHU WKDQ DQ LQFUHDVH 6DJH HW DO     ,W LV SRVVLEOH WKDW D UHVWUXFWXULQJ RI WKH IHDWXUH KDV RFFXUUHGLQWKHVRXWKXVLQJHDUWKIURPWKHGLWFKWRUDLVH WKH OHYHO RI WKH LQWHULRU )OLQW LV YLVLEOH ZLWKLQ WKH EDQN EXW LW LV XQFHUWDLQ LI WKLV LV D QDWXUDO FRPSRQHQW RI WKH EDQNVRLOVRULILWKDVEHHQXVHGDVDUHYHWWLQJPDWHULDO

5RRNVQHVW&RSVHDQG'RZQ&RSVH&KDGGOHZRUWK 2YHUYLHZ $SSUR[LPDWHO\  KD RI PL[HG GHFLGXRXV ZRRGODQG OLHV ZLWKLQWKH'HIHQFH(VWDWHVRI5$):HOIRUGFRPSULVLQJ 'RZQ&RSVH5RRNVQHVW&RSVHDQG%DVVGRZQ&RSVHDOO LQ&KDGGOHZRUWK3DULVK%DVVGRZQ&RSVHZDVPHQWLRQHG LQ D JUDQW E\ 5DOSK %DVVHW WR $ELQJGRQ $EEH\ *HOOLQJ  DQGLVSUREDEO\RYHU\HDUVROGEXWKDV VHHQ FRQVLGHUDEOH JURXQG GLVWXUEDQFH IURP DFWLYLWLHV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH EDVH +XJPDQ¶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

:HVW %HUNVKLUH +(5 UHFRUGV D KRDUG RI WK FHQWXU\ 5RPDQ FRLQV GLVFRYHUHG LQ  LQ +DQJPDQ¶V 6WRQH /DQH>0:%@DSSUR[LPDWHO\PIURPWKHJDWHRI %DVVGRZQ&RSVHDQGD5RPDQWRPEPDGHRIUXEEOHDQG IOLQWV >0:%@ GLVFRYHUHG LQ  DSSUR[LPDWHO\ P WR WKH HDVW $ WKLUG XQYHULILHG FODLP LV WKDW RI D SRVVLEOH5RPDQWHVVHOODWHGSDYHPHQW>0:%@IRXQG LQDILHOGQHDUWR3RXJKOH\IDUPKRXVHLQ +LVWRU\DQG/RQJHYLW\RIWKH:RRGODQG 7KHPDMRULW\RIWKHVXUYLYLQJZRRGODQGOLHVLQDQDUHDRI &KDGGOHZRUWKNQRZQDV3RXJKOH\7KHHDUOLHVWUHIHUHQFH WRZRRGODQGLVIRXQGLQWKHFKDUWHUVRI$'ZKHUHWKH QDPH3RXJKOH\LVGRFXPHQWHGDVµ3RKDQOHFK¶WKRXJKWWR PHDQ µZRRG E\ D IHDWXUH UHVHPEOLQJ D EDJ¶ IURP SRFK µSRXFK¶ RU µEDJ¶ DQG OHFK RU OH\ PHDQLQJ ZRRG RU FOHDULQJ LQ D ZRRG *HOOLQJ    $W WKLV WLPH LW ZDVUHFRUGHGWKDW&RHQZXOI.LQJRI0HUFLDJDYHDJUDQW RI SULYLOHJH WR $ELQJGRQ $EEH\ IRU ZRRGODQG DW 3RXJKOH\ .HOO\    7KH H[DFW ORFDWLRQ RI WKH ZRRGV LV QRW JLYHQ $ UHFHQW FRXQWU\ZLGH VWXG\ RI WKH

7KH SRVVLELOLW\ WKDW WKLV LV WKH UHXVH RI D PXFK HDUOLHU IHDWXUH VKRXOG DOVR EH FRQVLGHUHG 7KH HQFORVXUH LV VLPLODU LQ VL]H DQG IRUP WR RWKHUV UHFRUGHG IURP FURSPDUNV LQ WKH UHJLRQ LQ SDUWLFXODU D SUREDEOH HQFORVXUH >@ &KDSWHU  )LJXUH   O\LQJ LQ RSHQODQGDW)DZOH\DSSUR[LPDWHO\NPWRWKHQRUWKRI &ROGULGJH &RSVH H[DPLQHG IXUWKHU LQ &KDSWHU   DQG FRQVLGHUHGWREHODWHUSUHKLVWRULF





(VWDWH0DSRI%525HIHUHQFH'(:3

RFFXUUHQFHV RI WKH ZRUG SRKKD DQG SRFFD KDV SURYLGHG DQ DOWHUQDWLYH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI WKH QDPH VXJJHVWLQJ LW PLJKWEHDUHIHUHQFHWRDQDQLPDOZLWKVSRWVµSRF¶VXFK DV IDOORZ GHHU 7KLV WKHQ ZRXOG JLYH WKH PHDQLQJ RI 3RXJKOH\ DV µZRRG RU FOHDULQJ ZKHUH IDOORZ GHHU DUH IRXQG+RXJK 7KHQDPH&KDGGOHZRUWKPLJKWDOVR EH D UHIHUHQFH WR ZRRGODQG ZLWK WKH µ&KDG¶ HOHPHQW EHLQJDGHULYDWLRQRIWKH&HOWLFZRUGIRUZRRGµ&RHG¶

(VWDEOLVKLQJWKH$JHRIWKH:RRGODQG 0DQ\RIWKHHQFORVLQJZRRGEDQNVDQGGLWFKHVGDWHWRWKH RULJLQDO OD\LQJ RXW RI WKH ZRRGODQG FRPSDUWPHQWV &RSSLFH VWRROV RYHU P LQ FLUFXPIHUHQFH DQG D VPDOO QXPEHU RYHU P RFFXU ZLWKLQ 5RRNVQHVW &RSVH DQG DOO FRPSDUWPHQWV RI 'RZQV &RSVH 7KH JUHDWHVW FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI WKHVH ZDV IRXQG LQ 'RZQV &RSVH FRPSDUWPHQW ' $ FRSSLFH VWRRO RI RYHU P FLUFXPIHUHQFH LV OLNHO\ WR EH  \HDUV ROG GHSHQGLQJ RQ VSHFLHV DQG FRQGLWLRQV IRU JURZWK 5DFNKDP   8VLQJ 5DFNKDP¶V FDOFXODWLRQV RQH RI WKH DVK VWRROV LQ 'RZQV &RSVH &RPSDUWPHQW ' LV SUREDEO\ LQ WKH UHJLRQ RI  \HDUV ROG 6WDQGDUG DQG FRSSLFHWUHHVSRVWGDWLQJWKHFUHDWLRQRIWKHZRRGEDQNV KDYH EHHQ DJHG DW EHWZHHQ  WR RYHU  \HDUV ROG LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW WKH ZRRGODQG DQG DVVRFLDWHG EDQNV DQG WUDFNZD\VUHDFKEDFNLQWRPHGLHYDOWLPHV

7KH VLWH KDV KDG D PL[HG KLVWRU\ VXPPDULVHG LQ 3DJH DQG 'LWFKILHOG    ,Q  WKH KHUPLWDJH RI µ(OOHQIRUGHPHUH¶ RU µ&OHQIRUGHPHUH¶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

0DQ0DGH)HDWXUHV 7KH VXUYH\ VKRZHG WKH ZRRGODQG WR EH ULFK LQ DUFKDHRORJLFDO IHDWXUHV $GGLWLRQDO EDQNV LQ 5RRNVQHVW DQG 'RZQ &RSVH DUH SRVVLEO\ IUDJPHQWV RI D SUH ZRRGODQGILHOGV\VWHP,QDGGLWLRQSLWVGXJIRUDQXPEHU RI SXUSRVHV ZHUH DOVR UHFRUGHG 7KH PRVW UHFHQW VWUXFWXUHV FRPSULVH EULFN DQG FRQFUHWH ::,, DLU UDLG VKHOWHUVDQG IHDWXUHV UHODWLQJ WR WKH &ROG:DUXVHRI WKH EDVH

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µPLVVLQJ¶ EDQMR HQFORVXUH :LQWRQ    PLJKWVXUYLYHZLWKLQWKHZRRGODQG

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



7KH5RDG $ SURPLQHQW IHDWXUH ZLWKLQ WKH ZRRGV LV DQ ROG VXQNHQ URDG RU GURYHZD\ ZKLFK UXQV EHWZHHQ 'RZQ &RSVH &RPSDUWPHQW$DQG5RRNVQHVW&RSVHIODQNHGRQ HLWKHU VLGH E\ ZRRG EDQNV XS WR P KLJK ZKHUH PHDVXUHG )LJXUH   7KH 5RFTXH PDS VKRZV LW UXQQLQJ IURP 3RXJKOH\)DUPLQWKH VRXWKHDVWWRZDUGV3RXJKOH\%DUQ

7KH:URXJKWRQ3DSHUV%52FDWDORJXH5HI'(:



‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\

)LJXUH:RRGODQGFRPSDUWPHQWV5RRNVQHVWDQG'RZQ&RSVHGLVFXVVHGIXUWKHULQWKHWH[W

5RRNVQHVW &RSVH PD\ KDYH EHHQ GXJ IRU VLPLODU SXUSRVHV

DQGRSHQODQGLQWKHQRUWKZHVW$ILHOGPDSOHFRSSLFHRQ WKH QRUWKHUQ EDQN LQ 5RRNVQHVW &RSVH PHDVXUHG P LQ FLUFXPIHUHQFH VXJJHVWLQJ DQ DJH RI DURXQG  \HDUV ZLWKWKHURDGSUHGDWLQJLWDQGSRVVLEO\GDWLQJWRWKHXVH RIWKH3ULRU\LIQRWHDUOLHU

,Q 5RRNVQHVW &RSVH D QXPEHU RI SLWV OLH FORVH WR WKH SUREDEOH O\QFKHWV EXW GR QRW FXW RU RYHUOLH WKHP DQG WKHVHPLJKWEHFRQWHPSRUDU\IHDWXUHVSRVVLEO\PDUOSLWV 0DUOLQJ KDV EHHQ SUDFWLFHG IRU DW OHDVW D WKRXVDQG \HDUV DQG LV GRFXPHQWHG LQ ERWK WKH 6D[RQ &KDUWHUV DQG WKH &DUWXODULHVRI$ELQJGRQ$EEH\$QH[DPSOHGHVFULEHGLQ WKH ERXQGV IRU 8IILQJWRQ  $'  µ«DQG WKHQ WR WKH KHDGODQGV DQG WKHQ WR WKH FKDON SLWV«¶ *HOOLQJ    LV SRVVLEO\ D UHIHUHQFH WR PDUO SLWV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKHILHOGV\VWHPVWKHUH

7KLV LV D UDUH VXUYLYLQJ H[DPSOH DQG HOVHZKHUH IRUPHU URDGV DUH QRZ SORXJKHG XQGHU RU LQFRUSRUDWHG LQWR PRGHUQ URDGV 7KH URDG DOVR VHUYHV WR GHPRQVWUDWH KRZ SORXJKHGRXW DQG EDFNILOOHG KROORZD\V PLJKW EH PLVWDNHQIRUGLWFKHVIURPWKHLUFURSPDUNIRUPDORQH 3LWV

'RFXPHQWDU\ HYLGHQFH VKRZV WKH ZRRGV ZHUH EHLQJ PDQDJHG IRU WLPEHU DV ZHOO DV XQGHUZRRG IRU IHQFLQJ DQGILUHZRRG6DZSLWVZRXOGKDYHEHHQORFDWHGFORVHWR WKH DUHD RI IHOOLQJ DQG SUREDEOH H[DPSOHV LQ 5RRNVQHVW DQG 'RZQ &RSVH DSSHDU DV VKDOORZ µERDWVKDSHG¶ GHSUHVVLRQV

3LWV DQG KROORZV RI YDULRXV W\SHV ZHUH UHFRUGHG LQ ERWK 'RZQ &RSVH DQG 5RRNVQHVW &RSVH0RVWRIWKHSLWVDUH UHJXODU LQ IRUP DQG DUH HLWKHU URXQGHG RU VXEURXQGHG :KHUH VKDOORZ SLWV RU KROORZV KDYH DQ LUUHJXODU RXWOLQH WKH\ KDYH EHHQ LQWHUSUHWHG DV WUHH WKURZV DQG WKRVH ODFNLQJVSRLODURXQGWKHRXWVLGHDVH[WUDFWLRQSLWV$VDQG SLW LQ &KDGGOHZRUWK &RPPRQ &RSVH DQG FKDON SLWV LQ +XJPDQ¶V:RRG%DVVGRZQ&RSVHDQGRQRSHQODQGWR WKHZHVWRI3RXJKOH\)DUPDUHVKRZQRQWKH)LUVW(GLWLRQ 26 PDS DQG VRPH RI WKRVH LQ 'RZQ &RSVH DQG

 %525HI'(:7,QGHQWXUHGDWHG-DQEHWZHHQ-RVHSK 6D\HUDQG5REHUW6RXWKE\,QGHQWXUHGDWHG$SULOEHWZHHQ -RKQ:DVH\0DU\:DVH\-DQH6WRFNSRROH5REHUW%DNHUDQG'HDQ DQG&KDSWHURI:HVWPLQVWHU



 6XUYH\

‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH

)LJXUH  )HDWXUHV UHFRUGHG LQ 5RRNVQHVW DQG 'RZQ &RSVH 6HH $SSHQGL[  IRU D QXPEHUHG SORW DQGGHVFULSWLRQRIIHDWXUHV

)LJXUH)RUPHUURDGWKURXJK5RRNVQHVWDQG'RZQ&RSVH$SULO

ZRRGODQG ZLWK VRPH UHSODQWLQJ LQ WKH VRXWK DOWKRXJK RQO\ VHYHQ DQFLHQW ZRRGODQG LQGLFDWRU VSHFLHV ZHUH UHFRUGHG GXULQJ WKH VXUYH\ WKH PDMRULW\ RI ZKLFK OLH LQ WKHQRUWKRIWKHZRRG

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

5RFTXH VKRZV WKH DUHD DV RSHQ GRZQODQG LQ WKH ODWH ¶V 7KH ODQGRZQHU ZKR EHOLHYHV WKDW ERWK %RZHUV )DUPDQGWKHZRRGODQGZHUHHVWDEOLVKHGEHIRUHWKLVGDWH GLVSXWHVWKLV7KLVLVDUHODWLYHO\VPDOODUHDRIZRRGODQG DQG LW LV SRVVLEOH 5RFTXH FRQVLGHUHG LW WRR VPDOO WR UHFRUGKRZHYHUWKHVPDOOQXPEHURI$:,6LQWKHVRXWK RI WKH ZRRG DQG WKH DJH RI WKH WUHHV RQ WKH ZRRGEDQNV H[FOXGLQJ WKRVH DOLJQLQJ &R[¶V 'URYH D IRUPHU GURYH URDG DQG QRZ D WUDFN VXJJHVW DQ DJH RI OHVV WKDQ  \HDUV ,WV HDUOLHVW SRVVLEOH SUHVHQFH LV DQ RXWOLQH QDPHG VLPSO\DVµ%RZHUV¶O\LQJZLWKLQDQHQFORVHGILHOGRQWKH  (QFORVXUH PDS )LJXUH   7KH DFFRPSDQ\LQJ DSSRUWLRQPHQW VWDWHV ³«RQH SORW RI ODQG RU JURXQG VLWXDWH VLF  RQ WKH 'RZQV LQ WKH 7RZQVKLS RI /HWFRPE VLF  5HJLV FRQWDLQLQJ RQH KXQGUHG DQG WKLUWHHQ DFUHV DQGHLJKWSHUFKHV«´7KHDZDUGJLYHVQRPHQWLRQRIWKH ZRRGODQG RU LWV XVHV 7KH  26 PDS VKRZV WKDW WKH ZRRG ZDV HVWDEOLVKHG E\ WKDW WLPH )LJXUH   $ VDOH FDWDORJXHIRU%RZHUV)DUPGDWHGOLVWVWKHQRUWKHUQ FRPSDUWPHQW DV %RZHUV ZRRG DQG WKH VRXWKHUQ FRPSDUWPHQWDV%RZHUV&RSVHDOWKRXJKQRHYLGHQFHIRU FRSSLFLQJUHPDLQV

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

)RXU HQFORVXUHV O\LQJ WR WKH HDVW RI %RZHUV :RRG ZHUH UHFRUGHG E\ WKH /'03 FRPSULVLQJ /HWFRPEH %RZHUV  DQG  EDQMR HQFORVXUHV DQ DVVRFLDWHG HQFORVXUH DQG D PHGLHYDO RU SRVW PHGLHYDO FRSSLFH ERXQGDU\ ZKLFK LV VWLOOYLVLEOHLQJUDVVODQGWRWKHHDVWRI%RZHUV:RRG

2YHUYLHZ %RZHUV:RRGFRPSULVHVKDRI PL[HGGHFLGXRXVQDWLYH ZRRGODQG DQG VRPH FRQLIHU O\LQJ DSSUR[LPDWHO\ NP VRXWK RI 7KH 5LGJHZD\ GLUHFWO\ EHORZ 6HJVEXU\ &DPS 7KHXQGHUO\LQJJHRORJ\RIFOD\ZLWKIOLQWVLVPL[HGZLWK SODWHDX GULIW 7KH ZRRG KDV D GHVLJQDWLRQ RI DQFLHQW





$XFWLRQ6HSWHPEHU%525HI'(;

0DQPDGH)HDWXUHV 2QO\DVPDOOQXPEHURIIHDWXUHVZHUHUHFRUGHGZLWKLQWKH ZRRG7KHVHFRPSULVHGVKDOORZZRRGEDQNVDQGFRSSLFH ERXQGDULHV PRVW SUREDEO\ RI D SRVW PHGLHYDO GDWH DQG H[WUDFWLRQ SLWV 7KH PDLQ ERG\ RI WKH ZRRGODQG OLHV RQ IDLUO\ OHYHO JURXQG DQG WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI ODUJH O\QFKHWV ZRXOGQRWEHH[SHFWHG

)LJXUH   ([WUDFW IURP WKH  (QFORVXUH 0DS IRU /HWFRPEH5HJLVQRUWKWROHIW %525HIHUHQFH45'&% &RS\ULJKW%HUNVKLUH5HFRUG2IILFH

‹&URZQ&RS\ULJKWDQG/DQGPDUN,QIRUPDWLRQ*URXS/LPLWHG  $OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG  ‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\ /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH

)LJXUH([WUDFWIURPWKH26PDS

.QRZQ$UFKDHRORJ\

)LJXUH)HDWXUHVUHFRUGHGZLWKLQ%RZHUV:RRGVKRZQ LQEOXH/'03GDWDLVVKRZQLQLQUHG

5HPDLQV RI FRD[LDO ILHOG V\VWHPV ZHUH UHFRUGHG WR WKH QRUWK HDVW DQG ZHVW DQG WKHVH DSSHDU WR UXQ XS WR WKH ZRRG /LQHDU IHDWXUHV ZLWKLQ WKH ZRRG LQWHUSUHWHG DV ILHOGO\QFKHWVDQGFRSSLFHERXQGDULHVDUHUHFRUGHGRQWKH 2[IRUGVKLUH+(5>351@

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

)LHOGZRUN 7KH VXUYH\ WRRN SODFH RYHU D VLQJOH GD\ LQ $SULO  7KH ZRRGODQG LV UHODWLYHO\ RSHQ DQG WKLV KDV UHVXOWHG LQ WKHJURZWKRIH[WHQVLYHEUDPEOHWKLFNHWVPDNLQJVWDQGDUG VXUYH\SURFHGXUHVLPSRVVLEOH$OOIHDWXUHVZHUHUHFRUGHG XVLQJ D KDQGKHOG *36 VXSSOHPHQWHG ZLWK WKH VWDQGDUG SDFLQJPHWKRGWRPHDVXUHIHDWXUHV*36DFFXUDF\UDQJHG IURP P WKURXJKRXW WKH VXUYH\ :KHUH SRVVLEOH WKH DFFXUDF\ RI WKH *36 ZDV FRQILUPHG DJDLQVW ORFDWLRQV UHFRUGHG RQ 2UGQDQFH 6XUYH\ PDSSLQJ 'HWDLOV RI UHFRUGHGIHDWXUHVDUHJLYHQLQDSSHQGL[



)LJXUH3UREDEOHO\QFKHWLQ%RZHUV:RRG

7KH IUDJPHQWDU\ QDWXUH DQG ODFN RI WKH FRD[LDO ILHOGV V\VWHPV UHFRUGHG LQ WKLV DUHD FRPSDUHG WR WKRVH LQ WKH ZHVWKDVEHHQFRPPHQWHGRQE\DQXPEHU RIDXWKRULWLHV IRU H[DPSOH 6PDOO  7D\ORU   DQG WKH VRLOV DOWKRXJKRYHUFRPHWRVRPHH[WHQWE\PRGHUQDJULFXOWXUDO HTXLSPHQWZHUHSRVVLEO\EH\RQGWKHFDSDELOLWLHVRIHDUO\ DJULFXOWXUDOLVWV 7KH WLWKH DZDUG VKRZV WKDW PXFK RI WKH ODQGZDVXQGHUDUDEOHDWWKDWWLPHKRZHYHUODWHUVXUYH\V VKRZWKDWWKLVZDVVKRUWOLYHG

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µ7KH:LOGHUQHVV¶RQPRUHUHFHQW26PDSVDUHIHUHQFHWR SRRU ODQG *HOOLQJ    7KLV ODQG PLJKW KDYH UHPDLQHG ZRRGHG LQ HDUOLHU SHULRGV RU DOORZHG WR UHJHQHUDWH RQFH WKH TXDOLW\ RI WKH VRLOV KDG EHHQ GHWHUPLQHG ZLWK VHFRQGDU\ ZRRGODQG FDSDEOH RI UHJHQHUDWLQJ ZLWKLQ  \HDUV 5DFNKDP    7KH ODQGLQWKLVDUHDERUGHUV)DZOH\GLVFXVVHGLQ&KDSWHU D QDPH ZKLFK LPSOLHV ZRRGODQG 7KH FRLQFLGHQFH RI FOD\ZLWKIOLQWV WKH DEVHQFH RI FRKHVLYH ILHOG V\VWHPV DQGDUHIHUHQFHWRZRRGODQGLQWKHSDULVKQDPHKDVDOVR EHHQQRWHGE\5LFKDUGV 

)RUPHU/DQG8VH 7KH VXUYLYDO RI VDQG SRFNHWV VXJJHVWV WKH ODQG LQ WKH VRXWK RI WKH ZRRG KDV QHYHU EHHQ SORXJKHG DQG LW LV SUREDEOH WKDW VLPLODU GHSRVLWV RQFH H[LVWHG HOVHZKHUH LQ WKLVUHJLRQ7KH7LWKH$ZDUGUHFRUGVDQDUHDWRWKH QRUWKZHVW RI %RZHUV :RRG ERUGHULQJ WKH /HWFRPEH %DVVHWWSDULVKERXQGDU\DV6DQG+LOO)LJXUH 



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

‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\ /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH

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

)LJXUH3RVVLEOHFRUUHVSRQGHQFHEHWZHHQO\QFKHWV RXWVLGHWKHZRRGODQGDQGZRRGERXQGDULHV

:KLOH WKH IUDJPHQWDU\ ILHOG EDQNV LQ WKH YLFLQLW\ RI WKH ZRRG FRXOG EH DJJUHJDWH V\VWHPV RU ODUJHU FRD[LDO V\VWHPV HURGHG E\ PRGHUQ DJULFXOWXUH LW QRZ VHHPV PRUH SUREDEOH WKDW WKHLU IRUP ZDV LPSRVHG E\ XQIDYRXUDEOH VRLO FRQGLWLRQV ZLWK WKH VRLOV SUHYHQWLQJ PDMRUDUDEOHDJULFXOWXUHGHYHORSLQJDQGZLWKWKHEHVWXVH EHLQJPDGHRIDOODYDLODEOHODQG 6XPPDU\

:KLOH OLGDU LV QRZ EHLQJ XVHG WR JUHDW HIIHFW WR PDS ZRRGODQG WKHUH VWLOO UHPDLQV D SODFH IRU WKLV W\SH RI VXUYH\WRJURXQGWUXWKWKHIHDWXUHVLGHQWLILHGE\OLGDUDQG WRSURYLGHDUHODWLYHGDWH

7KLV VWXG\ HYDOXDWHG D UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH PHWKRG RI DUFKDHRORJLFDOVXUYH\DQGGHPRQVWUDWHGWKHSRWHQWLDOIRU DUFKDHRORJLFDOIHDWXUHVWRVXUYLYHHYHQLQVPDOOWUDFWVRI ZRRGODQG $OWKRXJK RQO\ %RZHUV :RRG FRQWDLQHG IHDWXUHV SHUWLQHQW WR WKLV VWXG\ &ROGULGJH &RSVH 'RZQ

7KH IROORZLQJ FKDSWHU FRQWLQXHV WKH WKHPH RI VLWHV H[DPLQLQJWKRVHWKDWQRZVXUYLYHRQO\DVFURSPDUNV



&+$37(5(,*+7

6LWHV&KRVHQIRU,QYHVWLJDWLRQ %DQMR(QFORVXUHV

6(77/(0(17 $1' /$1'86( *(23+(@P[PHQFORVHVDQ DUHD RI KD ZLWK D VLPSOH HQWUDQFH WR WKH HDVW 7KH GLWFK LQ WKH VRXWKHDVW PLUURUV WKH VKDSH RI WKH ODUJHU

7KH)LHOG6\VWHPV 7KH VXUYH\ GHWHFWHG VRPH EXW QRW DOO RI WKH UHPDLQV RI WKH IRUPHU O\QFKHWV LGHQWLILHG IURP FURSPDUNV $'  IURPZKLFKLWLVSRVVLEOHWRGUDZVRPHEULHIFRQFOXVLRQV )LJXUH ,IDVVXJJHVWHGE\/RFNDQG*RVGHQ WKHILHOG V\VWHPVZHUHHDUOLHUWKDQWKHHQFORVXUHDQ\SUHH[LVWLQJ ILHOGEDQNVPLJKWKDYHKDGDQLQIOXHQFHRQWKHOD\RXWRI WKHHQFORVXUHDVVXJJHVWHGIRU3HUERURXJK&DVWOH3D\QH HW DO    ZKHUHDV DW &  WKH FURSPDUN RI WKH O\QFKHWDSSHDUVWRPLUURUWKHVKDSHRIWKHEDQMRHQFORVXUH LQ WKH VRXWK LQGLFDWLQJ WKDW VRLO KDG EXLOW XS DURXQG WKH EDQN 7KH FURSPDUNV RI WZR IXUWKHU O\QFKHWV UXQ QRUWK VRXWK RQ HLWKHU VLGH RI WKH EDQMR HQFORVXUH HIIHFWLYHO\ SXWWLQJ WKH HQWUDQFH RXW RI XVH 6LPLODUO\ LW LV DOVR XQOLNHO\ WKDW WKH HQWUDQFH WR WKH SRO\JRQDO HQFORVXUH ZRXOGKDYHEHHQFRQVWUXFWHGDFURVVDSUHH[LVWLQJEDQN $ EOXUULQJ RI WKH ODUJHU HQFORVXUH GLWFK '  ZKHUH LW LV LQWHUVHFWHG E\ WKH O\QFKHW PLJKW DOVR EH WKH UHVXOW RI DQFLHQWSORXJKGDPDJH 7KH FRPELQHG FURSPDUN DQG JHRSK\VLFDO HYLGHQFH VXSSRUWV WKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ WKDW WKH ILHOGV SRVWGDWH WKH HQFORVXUHV ,I WKH HQFORVXUH LV RI D PLGGOHODWH ,URQ $JH GDWHWKHQWKHILHOGV\VWHPVPXVWEHODWHU7KLVVXJJHVWV WKH HQFORVXUH GLWFKHV ZHUH LQILOOHG DW WKDW WLPH LQGLFDWLQJDSUREDEOHFKDQJHLQWKHDJULFXOWXUDOHFRQRP\ RIWKLVDUHDLQWKH5RPDQSHULRG

/DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH )LJXUH/RFDWLRQRIILHOGV\VWHPV



6SDUURZ¶V&RSVH/HWFRPEH5HJLV2[IRUGVKLUH 6SDUURZ¶V &RSVH EDQMRHQFORVXUH OLHVRQUHODWLYHO\ OHYHO JURXQG DW DSSUR[LPDWHO\ P 2' $HULDO SKRWRJUDSKV VKRZLWWREH'VKDSHGPHDVXULQJDSSUR[LPDWHO\P[ P ZLWK D VKRUW IXQQHOVKDSHG HQWUDQFH ZKLFK H[WHQGV LQWR DQWHQQD GLWFKHV DW HLWKHU VLGH )LJXUH   )XUWKHU GLWFKHVDQGIUDJPHQWVRIILHOGV\VWHPVOLHLQWKHYLFLQLW\ EXWWKHLUUHODWLRQVKLSWRWKHEDQMRHQFORVXUHLVXQFOHDU

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¶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

‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\ /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URJUDPPH‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH

)LJXUH7UDQVFULEHGFURSPDUNVIRU6SDUURZ¶V&RSVH EDQMRHQFORVXUH

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



,QWKHZHVWDSUREDEOHHQWUDQFHWRWKHODUJHUHQFORVXUHLV GHILQHG E\ ZKDW DSSHDU WR EH GRXEOH GLWFKHV VLPLODU LQ IRUP WR WKRVH VHHQ DW WKH 6RXWK )DZOH\ FRPSOH[ DOWKRXJKRQHRIWKHVHDOVRFRUUHVSRQGVWRWKHORFDWLRQRI ILHOG O\QFKHW ZKLFK PLJKW KDYH EXLOW XS DJDLQVW D SUH H[LVWLQJEDQN 3DLUHGGLWFKHVLQWKH VRXWKZHVWUXQLQWRD VSDFHFUHDWHG E\ WKH DQJOH RI WKH HQFORVXUH DQG WKH DQWHQQDH GLWFKHV DQGZKLFKDSSHDUWRIRUPDIXUWKHUHQFORVXUH 7KH)LHOG6\VWHPV *HRSK\VLFVKDVSURYHQOHVVVXFFHVVIXOLQHOXFLGDWLQJWKH UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHILHOGV\VWHPVDQGWKHHQFORVXUHV DQGLWLVSUREDEOHWKDWWKHVOLJKWHULQFOLQHLQWKLVDUHDGLG QRW SURGXFH WKH VXEVWDQWLDO O\QFKHWV VHHQ HOVHZKHUH DQG WKH\ ZHUH WKHUHIRUH PRUH UHDGLO\ SORXJKHG RXW 7KHUH LV QR LQGLFDWLRQ RI SORXJK GDPDJH DFURVV WKH HQFORVXUH GLWFKHVDOWKRXJKVRPHSRVVLEOHGLVWXUEDQFH KDVRFFXUUHG LQ WKH DUHD DUURZHG LQ )LJXUH  ZKLFK FRUUHVSRQGV ZLWKWKHIHDWXUHWUDQVFULEHGDVDO\QFKHW

‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW 2UGQDQFH6XUYH\

)LJXUH*HRSK\VLFDO VXUYH\±6SDUURZ¶V&RSVH

‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW 2UGQDQFH6XUYH\ /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ 3URJUDPPH‹(QJOLVK +HULWDJH

)LJXUH/RFDWLRQRIILHOG V\VWHPVDW6SDUURZ¶V&RSVH



 2WKHU (QFORVXUH )RUPV  1RUWK )DZOH\ )DUP )DZOH\%HUNVKLUH

SRVWKROHVRQHWKLUGDORQJLWOHQJWKIURPWKHQRUWK PLJKW GHILQHDJDSHQWUDQFH

$UHFWLOLQHDUGLWFKHGHQFORVXUHZDVUHFRUGHGO\LQJP WRWKH VRXWKHDVWRI /HWFRPEH%RZHUVEDQMRHQFORVXUH DWDSSUR[LPDWHO\P2')LJXUH 7KHHQFORVXUH OLHV DPLG SUHKLVWRULF RU 5RPDQ ILHOG V\VWHPV WKDW VXUURXQG EXW GR QRW HQFURDFK XSRQ LW VXJJHVWLQJ LW ZDV H[WDQW GXULQJ WKH XVH RI WKH ILHOGV 7KH FURSPDUNV VKRZ DQLQWHUQDOGLYLVLRQUXQQLQJFHQWUDOO\QRUWKVRXWKWKURXJK WKHHQFORVXUHDQGDQXPEHURILOOGHILQHGGLWFKIUDJPHQWV O\LQJ ZLWKLQ WKH HDVWHUQ VHFWLRQ 7KUHH VHFWLRQV RI GLWFK OLHDERYHWKHHQFORVXUHLQWKHQRUWK

7KH IHDWXUHV O\LQJ ZLWKLQ WKH HDVWHUQ VHFWRU ZHUH SRRUO\ UHSUHVHQWHGE\WKHFURSPDUNHGGDWDDQGFDQQRZEHVHHQ WR FRPSULVH D VXEFLUFXODU HQFORVXUH DSSUR[LPDWHO\ P [ P $ QXPEHU RI LQWHUQDO IHDWXUHV SRVVLEO\ SLWV VHYHUDOGLWFKHVRIYDULRXVOHQJWKVDQGVPDOOHUHQFORVXUHV OLH ZLWKLQ WKLV HQFORVXUH 1R HQWUDQFH FRXOG EH GHWHUPLQHG ,Q WKH ZHVW WKH HQFORVXUH GLWFK FXWV D ODUJH FOXVWHU RI SLWOLNH IHDWXUHV DQG WKHVH PLJKW UHSUHVHQW DQ HDUOLHU XQHQFORVHG SKDVH RI VHWWOHPHQW 5HFWLOLQHDU IHDWXUHV SRVVLEO\ ILHOGV RU SDGGRFNV ZLWK DQ RYHUDOO GLPHQVLRQRIP [POLH LQWKH QRUWKZHVWFRUQHURI WKHHQFORVXUH

7KH ODQGRZQHU EHOLHYHV D QXPEHU RI 5RPDQ FRLQV DQG DUWHIDFWV KDYH EHHQ UHFRYHUHG IURP WKH ILHOG E\ PHWDO GHWHFWRULVWV DOWKRXJK QRQH KDYH EHHQ UHSRUWHG DQG VXVSHFWV D 5RPDQ EXLOGLQJ H[LVWV VRPHZKHUH LQ WKH YLFLQLW\

7KH RYHUDOO LPSUHVVLRQ LV RQH RI D VPDOO IDUPVWHDG ZLWK VHWWOHPHQWLQWKHHDVWDQGWKHDUHDGLYLGHGWRSURYLGHDQ DUHDIRUJUD]LQJDQLPDOVRUJDUGHQSORWVLQWKHZHVW7KH RULJLQ RI WKH VXEVWDQWLDO OLQHDU DQRPDO\ LQ WKH VRXWK LV XQFHUWDLQDOWKRXJKLWFRUUHVSRQGVWRDIHDWXUHUHFRUGHGDV D ILHOG EDQN LQ )LJXUH  7KH OLQHDU IHDWXUH LQ WKH QRUWKZHVWLVSRVVLEO\DFRPSRQHQWRIDIXUWKHUHQFORVXUH

5HVXOWVDQGLQWHUSUHWDWLRQ 7KH VXUYH\ UHYHDOHG JUHDWHU GHWDLO ZLWKLQ WKH HQFORVXUH WKDQ KDG EHHQ VXVSHFWHG IURP DHULDO SKRWRJUDSKV DORQH DQGLWLVSUREDEOHWKDWPRUHWKDQRQHSKDVHRIDFWLYLW\LV UHSUHVHQWHG )LJXUHV   7KH IRUP RI WKH RXWHU HQFORVXUH FORVHO\ UHVHPEOHV WKH WUDQVFULEHG GDWD FRPSULVLQJDQDUHDRIDSSUR[LPDWHO\KDHQFORVHGE\D GLWFK P [ P ZKLFK DSSHDUV WR UHVSHFW WKH OLQH RI WKHPRGHUQURDG7KHHQFORVXUHLVGLYLGHGLQWHUQDOO\E\D GLWFKHG IHDWXUH SRVVLEO\ D WUDFNZD\ 7ZR SLWV RU

7KH VXUYH\ ZDV XQDEOH WR GHWHFW WKH ILHOG V\VWHPV DOWKRXJK D VPDOO QXPEHU RI DEUDGHG 5RPDQ JUH\ZDUH VKHUGV SRVVLEO\ IURP PDQXULQJ ZHUH REVHUYHG RQ WKH ILHOG VXUIDFH 7KH VRLOV LQ WKLV SDUW RI WKH ILHOG DUH H[WUHPHO\ VKDOORZ DQG LW LV SUREDEOH WKDW WKH O\QFKHWV KDYHEHHQREOLWHUDWHG

‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\

 /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URJUDPPH ‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH )LJXUH&URSPDUNVDW1RUWK)DZOH\ )DUP

‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\

)LJXUH*HRSK\VLFDO6XUYH\±1RUWK)DZOH\)DUP



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lUWHQHQFORVXUHDIRUPRIULWXDOVLWHLQ ZKLFK WKHSLWVFRQWDLQFUHPDWLRQEXULDOV0DVVH\ 7KLVLV GLVFXVVHGIXUWKHULQ&KDSWHU

‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\

)LJXUH5HODWLRQVKLSRIVTXDUHHQFORVXUHFHQWUH WRWKH)DZOH\DQG6RXWK)DZOH\HQFORVXUHV



)LJXUH6RXWK)DZOH\)DUPHQFORVXUHJHRSK\VLFDOVXUYH\

/DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URJUDPPH‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH )LJXUH6RXWK)DZOH\)DUPHQFORVXUH± /'037UDQVFULSWLRQ

)LJXUH6RXWK)DZOH\)DUPHQFORVXUH±FRORXUVKDGHGSORW

)DZOH\ WKHUH LV OLWWOH FRQILUPHG HYLGHQFH IRU 5RPDQR %ULWLVKVHWWOHPHQWRQWKLVSDUWRIWKH'RZQV

,QYHVWLJDWLQJ5RPDQR%ULWLVK6HWWOHPHQW 7KHUHPDLQLQJWZRVXUYH\VDW'RJNHQQHO/DQHDQG&KDLQ +LOO ZHUH FDUULHG RXW WR LQYHVWLJDWH SRVVLEOH 5RPDQR %ULWLVKEXLOGLQJVRUVHWWOHPHQWLQWKHDUHD2WKHUWKDQWKH 5RPDQ EXLOGLQJ DW 6WDQFRPEH 'RZQ DQG WKH SRVVLEOH EXLOGLQJUHFRUGHGGXULQJWKHVXUYH\DW6RXWK



%RWK VLWHV KDG DQHFGRWDO LQIRUPDWLRQ IRU 5RPDQ EXLOGLQJV DQG DW &KDLQ +LOO D ODUJH QXPEHU RI 5RPDQ ILQGVZHUHUHFRYHUHGE\PHWDOGHWHFWRULVWV&KDSWHU 

'RJNHQQHO/DQH6RXWK)DZOH\%HUNVKLUH 7KHFURSPDUNRIDVPDOOVTXDUHHQFORVXUHDSSUR[LPDWHO\ P E\ P ZDV UHFRUGHG RQ DHULDO SKRWRJUDSKV LQ WKH ¶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¶V H[FDYDWLRQ WUHQFK ZDVQRWDVFHUWDLQHG *HRSK\VLFVGLGQRWGHWHFWDQ\ORZYDOXHDQRPDOLHVZKLFK PLJKWVXJJHVWDVSUHDGRIVWRQHZRUNDOWKRXJKLIUREEHG RXWWKLVZRXOGDFFRXQWIRUWKHVOLJKWO\LUUHJXODUOLQHRIWKH GLWFKHV,WLVXQNQRZQLIWKH¶VH[FDYDWLRQSURGXFHG EXLOGLQJ PDWHULDO ,W DOVR ODFNV HYLGHQFH IRU WKH W\SH RI DFWLYLW\H[SHFWHG ZLWKLQDSUHKLVWRULFRUQDWLYH5RPDQR %ULWLVK VHWWOHPHQW 7KH FHQWUDOO\ SODFHG RSSRVLQJ HQWUDQFHV DQG WKH LQQHU HQFORVXUH ZRXOG QRW KDYH IXQFWLRQHG ZHOO LQ WHUPV RI VWRFN PDQDJHPHQW DQG WKH IXQFWLRQRIWKLVIHDWXUHUHPDLQVXQUHVROYHG

‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\ /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URJUDPPH‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH

)LJXUH7UDQVFULEHGFURSPDUNVIRU'RJNHQQHO/DQH HQFORVXUH

7KH6XUYH\$UHD

)LJXUH*HRSK\VLFDOVXUYH\'RJNHQQHO/DQHHQFORVXUH

7KH HQFORVXUH XQGHUOLHV D WUDFN XVHG UHJXODUO\ E\ UDFHKRUVH WUDLQHUV WR QHDUE\ JDOORSV DQG WKH VXUYH\ ZDV



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

‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\ /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URJUDPPH‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH

)LJXUH&URSPDUNHGIHDWXUHVWUDQVFULEHGGXULQJWKH /'03IURPDHULDOSKRWRJUDSK10568  $35DQGORFDWLRQRISRVVLEOH5RPDQEXLOGLQJDV UHSRUWHGE\$&&DVWOHKRXVHV\PERO 

$OWKRXJK ODFNLQJ FURSPDUN HYLGHQFH IRU DQ\WKLQJ RWKHU WKDQ GLWFKHG IHDWXUHV D SRVVLEOH 5RPDQ EXLOGLQJ ZDV GLVFRYHUHGLQWKHWKFHQWXU\GXULQJWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQRI DURDGLQDQDUHDQHZO\XQGHUHQFORVXUH$NHUPDQ  $NHUPDQ¶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



‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\

)LJXUH/RFDWLRQRIVXUYH\V

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

)LJXUH*HRSK\VLFDOVXUYH\±&KDUOWRQ'RZQHQFORVXUH

)LJXUH*HRSK\VLFDOVXUYH\±XQSURFHVVHGGDWD



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

)LJXUH5HFWDQJXODUIHDWXUHDUURZHG XQSURFHVVHGGDWD

:HVWHUQ)LHOG± 7KHVXUYH\LQWKHILHOGWRWKHZHVWUHYHDOHGIXUWKHU GLWFKHG ILHOGV SLWV D WUDFNZD\ DQG SRVVLEOH HQFORVXUH QRQH RI ZKLFK KDG SUHYLRXVO\ EHHQ UHFRUGHG DV FURSPDUNV)LJXUH 

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



‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\

)LJXUH'LWFKHGILHOGVDQGWUDFNZD\

‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\

)LJXUH5RPDQSRWWHU\GLVWULEXWLRQ

‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\

)LJXUHDQGJHRSK\VLFDOVXUYH\V



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¶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¶V &DVWOH DW KD DQG DOVR DSSHDUV WR KDYH VHHQ LQWHQVLYH XVH ,Q FRPPRQ ZLWK $OIUHG¶V &DVWOH LW KDV DQ H[WHUQDO GLWFK ZKLFK LV FRQWLJXRXV EXW H[WHQGV EH\RQG WKH HQFORVXUHDQGLVVLWHGDZD\IURPWKHKLJKHVWJURXQG7KLV RQFH DJDLQ UDLVHV TXHVWLRQV DV WR WKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI $OIUHG¶V&DVWOHDVDKLOOIRUW&RWWRQ3D\QHHWDO    DQG WR KRZ WKHVH IHDWXUHV PLJKW KDYH ORRNHG SULRUWRSORXJKOHYHOOLQJ µ+RWVSRWV¶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

XQGHUVWDQGLQJRIVHWWOHPHQWW\SHVDQGDVVRFLDWHGIHDWXUHV LQWKHVHDUHDV 7KHVXUYH\VZHUHDOVRDEOHWRKLJKOLJKWZKHUHGDPDJHLV SRVVLEO\RFFXUULQJDVDW2OG:DUUHQ/HWFRPEH%RZHUV DQGWKH6RXWK)DZOH\)DUPHQFORVXUHV 4XHVWLRQVGR KRZHYHUUHPDLQ7KHVXUYH\DW1HWWOHEDQN &RSVHEDQMRHQFORVXUHLELG VKRZHGWKDWZKLOH WKHVXUYH\SURGXFHGDFOHDUVSDWLDOSODQLWUHYHDOHGOLWWOH RIWKHFRPSOH[LW\DQG PXOWLSHULRGHYROXWLRQRIWKHVLWH 6XEVHTXHQW H[FDYDWLRQ UHYHDOHG TXDUULHV DQG RWKHU LUUHJXODUKROHVRYHQVDQGKHDUWKVJUDYHVDQGWUHHWKURZ KROHV DQG LW LV SUREDEOH WKDW VLPLODU IHDWXUHV DUH UHSUHVHQWHGKHUH7KHFKURQRORJLFDOUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQ WKH IHDWXUHV LV LQ PRVW FDVHV LPSRVVLEOH WR GHWHUPLQH DOWKRXJK IHZ VXSHULPSRVHG IHDWXUHV ZHUH LGHQWLILHG DQG WKRVH RQ PRUH FRPSOH[ VLWHV PLJKW EH FRQWHPSRUDU\ RU DW OHDVW H[WDQW DQG UHVSHFWHG E\ ODWHU PRGLILFDWLRQV DQG H[WHQVLRQV $W 6RXWK )DZOH\ VHYHUDO SKDVHV RI DFWLYLW\ FRXOGEHSUHVHQWUHSUHVHQWLQJFHQWXULHVRIFRQWLQXRXVRU LQWHUPLWWHQWDFWLYLW\7KLVGLIILFXOW\LVPDJQLILHGIRUVLWHV WKDWUHPDLQPRUSKRORJLFDOO\XQGDWHDEOHIRUH[DPSOHWKH HQFORVXUHVDW1RUWK)DZOH\)DUPDQG&KDLQ+LOO ,W LV DOVR XQFHUWDLQ LI WKH DEVHQFH RI KRXVH VWUXFWXUHV LV UHDORUD OLPLWDWLRQRIWKH PHWKRGXVHG7KH JHRSK\VLFDO VXUYH\DW6HJVEXU\&DPSLGHQWLILHGRQO\DVPDOOQXPEHU RIDQQXODUJXOOLHVZLWKRWKHUVGHVFULEHGDVEHLQJZHDNO\ UHVROYHG DQG µDW WKH PDUJLQV RI YLVLELOLW\¶ 3D\QH HW DO  $QQXODUJXOOLHVGHILQLQJWKHSRVLWLRQRIIRUPHU URXQGKRXVHV ZHUH GHWHFWHG RQO\ ZLWKLQ WKH &KDLQ +LOO



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

FXOWXUH7KLVLVGHPRQVWUDWHGLQ7DEOHZKLFKVKRZVDOO ILQGV UHFRUGHG IURP WKH SDULVKHV ZLWKLQ WKH YLFLQLW\ RI 6HJVEXU\ &DPS /HWFRPEH %DVVHWW /HWFRPEH 5HJLV :DQWDJHDQG/RFNLQJH SULRUWRWKLVVWXG\7KHPDMRULW\ RIWKHILQGVDUHSRRUO\ORFDWHGVRPHRQO\WRWKH QHDUHVW NPJULGVTXDUHDQGZKLOHSURYLGLQJHYLGHQFHIRUGDWLQJ DQG OLPLWHG KXPDQ DFWLYLW\ WKH\ KDYH RIIHUHG OLWWOH ZLWK ZKLFK WR EXLOG D ODQGVFDSH KLVWRU\ )XUWKHU ,URQ $JH FRLQVDUHPHQWLRQHGE\*LEERQVDQG'DYH\  EXWORFDWLRQVDUHOLPLWHGWRSDULVKHV

&+$37(51,1( 5(3238/$7,1* 7+( /$1' ± 7+( (9,'(1&( )5200(7$/'(7(&7('2%-(&76 ,QWURGXFWLRQ 7KHPHWKRGVGLVFXVVHGVRIDULQWKLVVWXG\KDYHHQKDQFHG RXUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIHDUO\VHWWOHPHQWDQGODQGXVHZLWKLQ WKH HQYLURQV RI 6HJVEXU\ &DPS KRZHYHU E\ LWV YHU\ QDWXUH D VWXG\ XVLQJ QRQLQYDVLYH WHFKQLTXHV RQ VLWHV ZKLFK KDYH QR ZULWWHQ KLVWRU\ DQG WKH GHFLVLRQ QRW WR HPSOR\ILHOGZDONLQJDVDVWDQGDUGPHWKRGRORJ\KDVOHIW WKLV ODQGVFDSH ODUJHO\ µXQSHRSOHG¶ DQG WKH PRQXPHQWV ZLWKLQLWXQGDWHG

7KH EHQHILWV RI XVLQJ PHWDO GHWHFWHG ILQGV LQ DUFKDHRORJLFDOUHVHDUFKLVLQFUHDVLQJO\DFNQRZOHGJHGIRU H[DPSOH 3HVWHOO DQG 8OPVFKQHLGHU  :RUUHOO HW DO   EXW LW LV RIWHQ XQFHUWDLQ LI WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH ILQGVLVDWUXHUHIOHFWLRQRISDVWDFWLYLW\RUDSUHIHUHQFHRQ WKH SDUW RI WKH GHWHFWRULVW IRU D SDUWLFXODU DUHD 7KH PHWKRG XVHG KHUH HOLPLQDWHV WKHVH XQFHUWDLQWLHV DQG GHPRQVWUDWHV KRZ PHWDO GHWHFWHG ILQGV FDQ EH XVHG WR JDLQLQVLJKWVLQWRODQGXVHDQGRWKHUDFWLYLWLHV

&XUUHQWXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIFRPPXQLW\DQGODQGXVHZLWKLQ WKH HQYLURQV RI 6HJVEXU\ &DPS RZHV OLWWOH WR PDWHULDO Period Bronze Age

Find Four palstaves found 1872

Iron Age Iron Age Iron Age

Two Atrebatic coins (55-45 BC) Silver unit (Atrebatic) Silver unit (Dobunic)

Iron Age

Silver unit (Dobunic)

Iron Age

Six coins

Iron Age

Silver unit of Caratacus (AD 43-51)

Iron Age Iron Age

Roman Late Roman Roman

Roman

Roman

Silver Unit (Dobunic) Ceremonial macehead discovered 1948. Originally interpreted as horse gear (Collins 1948; Jope 2000) Miliarensis of Augustus Valens. Minted Trier AD 367-75 Small number of gold and silver coins found in 1750 with 3 or 4 bronze vessels. Possible hoard (Davey 1901: 11-12) Coins of Tetricus (AD 271-274 and Maximinius (AD 305-312)

Early 4th century coin-reduced follis of maxentius. Discovered in 1973.

Location Lattin Down, Lockinge: Published description - centred on a deep quarry-pit planted with conifers. SU 41348381 – EH Field Investigator 1 mile NW of Segsbury Camp Within 1000m square of SU3886 Letcombe Regis: No grid ref.

Letcombe Regis (Possibly same as above) – within 1000m square of SU3886 At or near Wantage Letcombe Bassett SU 373 846

1000m square SU3785 Lattin Down: Farmer indicated approximately 800 yards south-east of White House Farm Letcombe Bassett SU 367 845 Letcombe Regis: SU 3884 Peake 1931 (p. 106) states coins were found within Segsbury Camp. Same volume (p. 209) reports they were found near to Segsbury Camp Letcombe Bassett: Southwest of Segsbury Camp. SU 3783 Lockinge. No grid ref.

Reference Pastscape 233829

PRN 14376 *CCI-090182 Pastscape 229142 PRN 9585 CCI-980172 Pastscape 229133 PRN 9709 (possibly CCI910001) CCI-41957 Pastscape 233823 PRN 9708 Pastscape 229196 PRN 9589 Peake 1931: 106; 209)

Pastscape 975843

Two coins, one Roman and one Gaulish (c. 50 Pastscape BC) 233733 7DEOH3UHYLRXVILQGVUHFRUGHGIURPSDULVKHVVXUURXQGLQJ6HJVEXU\&DPS351QXPEHUVIURP2[IRUGVKLUH+(5 &&,  &HOWLF&RLQ,QGH[



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±*36 1DYLJDWLRQJUDGH *36 KDQGVHWV ZHUH XVHG ZKHUH SRVVLEOH WR UHFRUG WKH ILQGVSRW IRU HDFK DUWHIDFW $OO KDQGVHWV ZHUH FKHFNHGDWWKH VWDUWRIHDFKGD\WRHQVXUH WKH\ZHUHVHWWRDFRPPRQUHIHUHQFLQJV\VWHPZLWKLQWKH JOREDO FRRUGLQDWHV GHILQHG E\ :*6 :RUOG *HRGHWLF 6\VWHP DQGVHWWRORFDO PDSGDWXPV7KLVW\SHRI *36 HTXLSPHQW JHQHUDOO\ SURYLGHV D KRUL]RQWDO SRVLWLRQ RI EHWZHHQ  PHWUHV DQG DFFXUDF\ YDULHG WKURXJKRXW WKHGD\ $FFXUDF\RIWKHILQGVSRW±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

Name/Parish

Dates

Number of detectorists

Area (Ha)

Finds Recorded (pre 1750)

Letcombe Rally (Letcombe Regis)

26-28 Aug 2006

2000

255

539

Court Hill Rally (Wantage)

26 Aug 2007

100

30

39

Wantage Rally (Wantage and Lockinge)

1-2 Sep 2007

750

233

665

Chain Hill (Locking)

17 Aug 2008

100

31

*15

Lattin Down Rally (Wantage)

6-7 Sep 2008

600

179

123

7DEOH5DOO\GHWDLOV 8QPRQLWRUHGUDOO\)LQGVUHSRUWHGWRUHJLRQDO)LQGV/LDLVRQ2IILFHUV

‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\

)LJXUH5DOO\ORFDWLRQV



ILHOGV ZHUH OHIW XQFXOWLYDWHG HDFK \HDU SUHFLSLWDWLQJ FROOXYLDWLRQ 1R DWWHPSW KDV EHHQ PDGH WR FDOFXODWH WKH GLVWDQFH HDFK DUWHIDFW KDV WUDYHOOHG IURP LWV RULJLQDO SRVLWLRQ DV WKH ODUJH QXPEHU RI YDULDEOHV DQG XQFHUWDLQWLHV LQKHUHQW ZLWKLQ WKLV W\SH RI FDOFXODWLRQ ZRXOGLQYDOLGDWHWKHRYHUDOOFRQFOXVLRQV

([SHULHQFHG GHWHFWRULVWV WHQGHG WR ZRUN DW WKH ERWWRP RI VORSHV ZKHUH LW ZDV DQWLFLSDWHG WKHUH ZRXOG EH D JUHDWHU FRQFHQWUDWLRQ RI DUWHIDFWV WKRXJKVRLOVOLSSDJHGXULQJSORXJKLQJ 7KH5DOOLHVLQ&RQWH[W

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¶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

%URQ]H$JHWRWKHSRVWPHGLHYDOSHULRGVZHUHUHFRUGHG ZLWK5RPDQFRLQVGRPLQDWLQJWKHDVVHPEODJH

/DWWLQ'RZQ5DOO\ /DWWLQ'RZQWRWKHHDVWRI6HJVEXU\&DPSOLHVGLUHFWO\ WRWKHVRXWKRIWKH5LGJHZD\DQGZLWKLQDIHZPHWUHVRI *ULP¶V 'LWFK )LJXUH   $ VPDOO DUHD WR WKH QRUWK RI WKH 5LGJHZD\ ZDV DOVR PHWDO GHWHFWHG $ %URQ]H $JH KRDUGRIIRXUSDOVWDYHVZDVIRXQGLQWKLVYLFLQLW\LQ *LEERQV  'DYH\   DQG DQ ,URQ $JH FHUHPRQLDO PDFHKHDGLQ&ROOLQV-RSH $GDPDJHG EHOO EDUURZ LQYHVWLJDWHG E\ 3LJJRWW    IURPZKLFKSRWWHU\DQDZODQGDGDJJHUZHUHUHFRYHUHG OLHVMXVWEH\RQGWKHQRUWKHDVWHUQERUGHURIWKHUDOO\DUHD DQG LV FXW E\ WKH PRGHUQ 5LGJHZD\ $ VPDOO QXPEHU RI LVRODWHGILHOGEDQNVZHUHUHFRUGHGLQWKLVDUHDDQGWKHVLWH ERUGHUV WKH FURSPDUNHG UHPDLQV RI 6SDUURZ¶V &RSVH EDQMRHQFORVXUHDODUJHULQJGLWFKDQGDQXPEHURIRWKHU GLWFKHG IHDWXUHV UHFRUGHG E\ WKH /'03 ,W ZDV DQWLFLSDWHG WKDW WKH UDOO\ ZRXOG SURYLGH D VLPLODU DVVHPEODJHWRWKDWUHFRYHUHGGXULQJWKH/HWFRPEH5DOO\ 7KH XQVHDVRQDEO\ ZHW ZHDWKHU FRQGLWLRQV WKURXJKRXW $XJXVW DQG LQWR 6HSWHPEHU  UHVXOWHG LQ D ODWH KDUYHVWDQGFRUQVWXEEOHKDGEHHQOHIWUHGXFLQJWKHUDQJH RI WKH PHWDO GHWHFWRU ,Q DGGLWLRQ VHYHUH VWRUPV GXULQJ ERWKGD\VRIWKHUDOO\FRQVLGHUDEO\UHGXFHGWKHGHWHFWLQJ WLPHDQGWKH QXPEHURILWHPVUHFRYHUHG)LQGVIURPWKH

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

‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\

)LJXUH/HWFRPEH5DOO\±ILQGVUHSRUWHGE\SHULRG



‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\

)LJXUH&RXUW+LOO5DOO\±ILQGVUHSRUWHGE\SHULRG

‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\

)LJXUH:DQWDJH5DOO\±ILQGVUHSRUWHGE\SHULRG



‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\

)LJXUH/DWWLQ'RZQ5DOO\±ILQGVUHSRUWHGE\SHULRG

(DFKRIWKHUDOOLHVSURGXFHGILQGVRID%URQ]H$JHGDWH WKH PDMRULW\ RI ZKLFK IDOO ZLWKLQ D QXPEHU RI NQRZQ W\SRORJLHV IRU ZKLFK GDWLQJ LV ZHOO HVWDEOLVKHG 1HHGKDP HW DO   7ZHQW\QLQH DUWHIDFWV VSDQQLQJ DOO SHULRGV RI WKH %URQ]H $JH  %& %&  ZHUH UHSRUWHG 7DEOH   7KH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH ILQGV LV VKRZQLQ)LJXUH

$VVKRZQLQ)LJXUHWKHILQGVZHUHGLVFRYHUHGRYHUD ODUJH DUHD DQG DSSHDU WR EH VSDWLDOO\ DQG LQ VRPH FDVHV FKURQRORJLFDOO\ XQUHODWHG DOWKRXJK WKH PDMRULW\ RI WKH D[HVDQGD[HIUDJPHQWVZHUHUHFRYHUHGFORVHWRRUWRWKH QRUWK RI WKH 5LGJHZD\ DQG *ULP¶V 'LWFK ZKLOVW VZRUGV DQGVSHDUVZHUHRQO\IRXQGLQWKHVRXWKZHVW6PDOOWRROV GDJJHUV DQG RUQDPHQWV VXFK DV SLQV ZKLFK QRUPDOO\ RFFXU DV WKH VROH PHWDOZRUN FODVV LQ JUDYHV 1HHGKDP  ZHUHGLVWULEXWHGDFURVVWKHDUHD

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

,W LV XQFHUWDLQ KRZ UHSUHVHQWDWLYH WKH ILQGV DUH RI WKH RULJLQDO GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG IXUWKHU DUWHIDFWV SUREDEO\ UHPDLQ XQGLVFRYHUHG XQUHSRUWHG RU KDYH DOUHDG\ EHHQ GHVWUR\HG E\ SORXJKLQJ RU VRLO FKHPLFDOV 8QWLO QRZ *ULP¶V 'LWFK DQG WKH VPDOO QXPEHU RI H[WDQW EDUURZV DQG ULQJ GLWFKHV KDYH SURYLGHG WKH RQO\ HYLGHQFH IRU %URQ]H $JH DFWLYLW\ LQ WKH DUHD DOWKRXJK WKH GLWFKHG HQFORVXUHV LGHQWLILHG GXULQJ WKH /'03 UHPDLQ XQGDWHG 7KH DUWHIDFWV UHSUHVHQW D SHULRG RI DSSUR[LPDWHO\  \HDUV D WLPH WKDW VDZ FKDQJHV LQ VRFLHWLHV HFRQRPLHV EHOLHI V\VWHPV DQG ODQGVFDSH DQG DSSHDU WR FURVV WKH ERXQGDULHVRIDQXPEHURILQWHUSUHWDWLRQV%UDGOH\  7KH DVVHPEODJH LV YLHZHG KHUH DJDLQVW D EDFNJURXQG RI VRPHRIWKHVHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQV

7KH%URQ]H$JH



Artefact Type Period Rally Flint barbed and tanged arrowhead Late Neolithic-early Bronze Age Letcombe Flat axe (decorated) Early Bronze Age Lattin Down Tanged dagger Early-Middle Bronze Age Lattin Down Socketed spearhead with side loops Middle Bronze Age Letcombe Socketed spearhead with side loops Middle Bronze Age Letcombe Socketed spearhead with side loops (fragment) Middle Bronze Age Letcombe Spearhead fragment Middle Bronze Age Letcombe Sickle blade Middle Bronze Age Letcombe Rapier Middle Bronze Age Letcombe Quoit-headed pin Middle Bronze Age Letcombe Disc-headed pin Middle Bronze Age Chain Hill Sword blade fragment Middle-late Bronze Age Letcombe Palstave axe Middle-late Bronze Age Letcombe Palstave axe Middle-late Bronze Age Court Hill Palstave axe fragment Middle-late Bronze Age Wantage Palstave axe fragment Middle-late Bronze Age Lattin Down Blade fragment Middle-late Bronze Age Lattin Down Sword Late Bronze Age Letcombe Sword blade fragment Late Bronze Age Letcombe Ingot Late Bronze Age Letcombe Socketed axehead fragment Late Bronze Age Letcombe (?socketed) axe fragment Late Bronze Age Court Hill Socketed axehead fragment Late Bronze Age Wantage Socketed axehead fragment Late Bronze Age Wantage Ingot/bronze waste ?Late Bronze Age Chain Hill *Awl Bronze Age Court Hill *Awl Bronze Age Letcombe *Awl Bronze Age Wantage Blade fragment Bronze Age Lattin Down 7DEOH%URQ]H$JHDUWHIDFWV'DWLQJIROORZV3$6JXLGHOLQHV±HDUO\%URQ]H$JH%&PLGGOH%URQ]H$JH %&ODWH%URQ]H$JH%& $ZOVDUHLQWHUSUHWHGDVPXOWLIXQFWLRQDOWRROVXVHGIRUERWKZRRGDQGOHDWKHUZRUNLQJDQG IRUGHFRUDWLQJRUQDPHQWVDQGZHDSRQV7KH\DUHIRXQGZLGHO\LQ%URQ]H$JHFRQWH[WVIRUDOOSHULRGVDQGQRFORVHW\SRORJLFDO GDWHFDQEHDVVLJQHG

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¶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

‹&URZQ&RS\ULJKWDQG/DQGPDUN,QIRUPDWLRQ*URXS/LPLWHG $OOULJKWVUHVHUYHG  /DPERXUQ'RZQV0DSSLQJ3URMHFW‹(QJOLVK+HULWDJH )LJXUH26PDSVKRZLQJ,URQ$JHDQG5RPDQILQGVGLVWULEXWLRQ*UHHQ±DOOHDUO\5RPDQILQGVEOXH±,URQ$JH FRLQVUHG±,URQ$JHREMHFWV



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±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

‹&URZQFRS\ULJKW2UGQDQFH6XUYH\

)LJXUH'LVWULEXWLRQRIPHGLHYDODQGSRVWPHGLHYDOILQGV

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

DOWKRXJKWKHH[DFWORFDWLRQRIWKHZRRGODQGLVXQFHUWDLQ 7KH VRLOV DUH FOD\ZLWKIOLQWV DQG LW LV SRVVLEOH WKDW WKLV DUHD KDG UHPDLQHG ZRRGHG IURP DW OHDVW WKH 5RPDQ SHULRG LQWR WKH WK FHQWXU\ ZKLFK ZRXOG SURYLGH RQH H[SODQDWLRQIRUWKHGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKHILQGV

)LJXUH/RFDWLRQRIVXUYH\HGZRRGODQG&KDSWHU WR UDOO\DUHD

3DVWVFDSH UHFRUG  SURYLGHV DQ DFFRXQW RI WKLV ZKLFK LV VXPPDULVHG EULHIO\ KHUH 7KH ILQGVSRW DQG FDSWLRQVKRZQRQWKHPDS)LJXUH DQGPDUNHG $LQ)LJXUH ZDVDOWHUHGLQRQWKHDXWKRULW\RI +DUROG 3HDNH WKH WKHQ &XUDWRU RI 1HZEXU\ 0XVHXP WR WKHORFDWLRQVKRZQLQ)LJXUH%LQ)LJXUH 7KLV LVQRZWKHDFFHSWHGORFDWLRQDQGWRGD\QRUHDVRQFDQEH IRXQG IRU WKH RULJLQDO VLWLQJ 7KH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH 5RPDQ DUWHIDFWV FRUUHVSRQGV WR WKH RULJLQDO ILQGVSRW VKRZQRQWKHPDSZKLFKVXJJHVWVWKHUHZDVVRPH IRXQGDWLRQIRUWKHRULJLQDOORFDWLRQDOWKRXJKZKHWKHUWKLV LVWKHVLWHRIWKHFRLQKRDUGRUWRPELVXQFHUWDLQ

‹ODQGPDUNLQIRUPDWLRQJURXS/WGDQG&URZQFRS\ULJKW )LJXUH26PDSVKRZLQJWKHORFDWLRQRI5RPDQ FRLQVSRWWHU\DQGKXPDQUHPDLQVFLUFOHG 

‹ODQGPDUNLQIRUPDWLRQJURXS/WGDQG&URZQFRS\ULJKW )LJXUH26PDSVKRZLQJWKHORFDWLRQRIWKH5RPDQ 7RPEFLUFOHG EXWQRPHQWLRQLVPDGHRIWKHDUWHIDFWV )LJXUH5DOO\DUHDZKLWHOLQH DQGH[WHQWRIZRRGODQGLQ  RYHUODLQ RQ DQ 2UGQDQFH 6XUYH\ GUDZLQJ E\ :LOOLDP 6WDQOH\ SXEOLVKHG  %ULWLVK /LEUDU\ /DPERXUQ 26'  &RQWDLQV SXEOLF VHFWRU LQIRUPDWLRQ OLFHQVHG XQGHU WKH 2SHQ*RYHUQPHQW/LFHQFHY

+LVWRULFDOO\ WKHUH KDV EHHQ VRPH FRQIXVLRQ RYHU WKH ORFDWLRQ RI WKH 5RPDQ WRPE DQG WKH FRLQ KRDUG DQG DW VRPH SRLQW WKH WZR ILQG VSRWV DSSHDU WR KDYH EHHQ PHUJHG VRPHWKLQJ WKDW KDV QHYHU EHHQ IXOO\ UHVROYHG



6XPPDU\ ,QWKHLUUHYLHZRIODWHU,URQ$JHVWXGLHV+DVHOJURYHDQG 0RRUH    QRWHG WKDW LQ UHFHQW \HDUV GLVFXVVLRQV KDYHEHHQGRPLQDWHGE\ODQGVFDSHDQGVHWWOHPHQWDWWKH H[SHQVH RI PDWHULDO FXOWXUH GHVFULELQJ WKH ODWWHU DV ³«WKH µOLQFK SLQV¶ RI ERWK FKURQRORJLFDO DQG VRFLDO PRGHOV´7KHRSSRVLWHYLHZFDQEHWDNHQIRUWKH%URQ]H

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

&+$37(57(1 7+( 6(*6%85