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Japan in the 21st Century: Environment, Economy, and Society [Har/Map ed.]
 0813123429, 9780813123424

Table of contents :
Cover
JAPAN IN THE 21ST CENTURY
Title
Copyright
Contents
List of Maps and Figures
Preface and Acknowledgments
Note on Numerical Conversions
1 Japan at the Crossroads: Grappling with Changes
2 Environmental Challenges and Constraints
The Physical Setting of Japan
Geologic Structure
Landforms
Rivers and Lakes: Drainage Patterns
Climates and Seasons
Vegetation Cover
Natural Resources
Natural Hazards
Alteration of Landforms by Human Activities
3 The Cultural Heritage
The Pottery People (Jomon Culture)
Yayoi Culture
The Evolution of the Yamato Cultural Core
The Nara and Heian Periods
The Shogun, Daimyo, and Samurai Cultures, 1185-1868
Japan's Emergence as a Great Power, 1868-1914
The Triumph of Fascism and World War II
Postwar Reform, Reconstruction, and Emergence as an Economic Superpower
Cultural Heritage in the Twenty-first Century
Religion
4 Japanese Landscapes
Primary Characteristics of the Japanese Landscape
Secondary Characteristics of the Landscape
5 Regional Reality
East and West, Center and Periphery, Omote-Nihon and Ura-Nihon
Hokkaido
Tohoku
Kanto
Chubu
Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku
Kyushu
Okinawa and the Nansei (Ryukyu) Islands
6 Demographic and Social Challenges
Falling Birthrates
Aging Society
Care of the Elderly
Population Distribution and Migration Patterns
Literacy, Education, and Civility
Minority Groups in Japan
Overseas Migration of Japanese
Foreign Workers in Japan
The Status of Women
Social Welfare and the Homeless
The Gap between Rich and Poor
7 Rural Landscape, Settlements, and Agriculture
The Rural Landscape
Rural Settlements
Land Use and Recent Changes in Agriculture
Declining Rice Farming and Increasing Diversity of the Rural Economy
Subsidies and the Future of Japanese Agriculture
Urban Agriculture in Japan
Land Reclamation for Agriculture
Maintaining the Vitality of Rural Communities
8 Urban Settlements
Early Historic Cities: Nara, Heiankyo (Kyoto), and Kamakura
Origins and Development of Cities in Feudal Japan
City Growth in the Modern Period (1868-2000)
The Japanese Megalopolis
Urban Development and Historical Preservation in the Megalopolis
The Structure of the Tokyo Metropolitan Region
The Urban Development Challenge
Moving Japan's Capital
9 The Political Challenge
The Political Culture
The Current Political System
Political Changes in 1993: Causes and Consequences
The National Flag and the Anthem: Symbols to Unite That Divide
Japan's Defense Policy
Territorial Disputes with Russia, China, and Korea
Japan, Asia, and the United States: Geopolitical Aspects
American Military Bases in Japan
Japan and Russia
Japan and Latin America
10 The Economic Challenge
Japan's Foreign Direct Investment
Japan's Economy, 1990-2004
Accounting Practices and Economic Woes: Japan's Bank Crisis
Essentials for Future Economic Performance
The Challenge of Structural Reform
11 Development and Restructuring of Industry
From Zaibatsu to Keiretsu
Japanese Manufacturing Strategy
Industrial Regions
Industrial Restructuring in Japan
12 Postindustrial Japan
The Development of Technology in Japan
The Growth of the Semiconductor Industry
The Location of High-Technology Industries
Biotechnology Industries
The Information Technology (IT) Industry
The Internet Economy
Science Cities and the Technopolis
Future Prospects
13 The Challenge of Environmental Preservation
Toxic Wastes
Grassroots Environmental Movements in Japan
14 Facing the Challenges
Three Major Transitions
Social Reforms for Sustainable Development
The Aging Society and the Falling Birthrate
The Future of the Countryside
The High-Technology Road
The Changing Lifestyles of the Young
Further Readings
Index

Citation preview

JAPAN IN THE 21ST CENTURY

IN THE 21ST CENTURY

VI E T, CO 0 ,A OCIE

PRADYUMNA

P. KARAN

CARTOGRAPHY BY DICK GILBREATH

'TIHlE U NlVlERSlTY

PREss OF KENTUCKY

Note: This book includes a folded oversize map of Japan. Publication of this volume was made possible in part by a grant from the National Endowment for the Humanities. Copyright © 2005 by The University Press of Kentucky Scholarly publisher for the Commonwealth, serving Bellarmine University, Berea College, Centre College of Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky University, The Filson Historical Society, Georgetown College, Kentucky Historical Society, Kentucky State University, Morehead State University, Murray State University, Northern Kentucky University, Transylvania University, University of Kentucky, University of Louisville, and Western Kentucky University. All rights reserved.

Editorial and Sales Offices: The University Press of Kentucky 663 South Limestone Street, Lexington, Kentucky 40508-4008 www.kentuckypress.com 13 12 11 10 09

7 6 5 4 3

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Karan, Pradyumna P. (Pradyumna Prasad) Japan in the twenty-first century: environment, economy, and society I Pradyumna P. Karan. p.cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-lO: 0-8131-2342-9 (alk. paper) - ISBN-lO: 0-8131-9118-1 (pbk.: alk. paper) 1. Japan. 2. Twenty-first century-Forecasts. I. Title: Japan in the 21st century. II. Title. DS806.K385 2004 952.05-dc22 2004020797 ISBN-l3: 978-0-8131-9118-8 (pbk.: alk. paper) This book is printed on acid-free recycled paper meeting the requirements of the American National Standard for Permanence in Paper for Printed Library Materials.

§® Manufactured in the United States of America. ~T.'

I

~ Member of the Association of

'I~ _

American University Presses

CONTENTS

List of Maps and Figures

ix

Preface and Acknowledgments

xi

Note on Numerical Conversions

xii

1 Japan at the Crossroads: Grappling with Changes 2

Environmental Challenges and Constraints The Physical Setting of Japan 9 Geologic Structure 10 Landforms 12 Rivers and Lakes: Drainage Patterns 18 Climates and Seasons 18 Vegetation Cover 22 Natural Resources 26 Natural Hazards 33 Alteration of Landforms by Human Activities

3 The Cultural Heritage

1

9

46

50

The Pottery People (Jomon Culture) 50 Yayoi Culture 52 The Evolution of the Yamato Cultural Core 52 The Nara and Heian Periods 53 The Shogun, Daimyo, and Samurai Cultures, 1185-1868 54 Japan's Emergence as a Great Power, 1868-1914 61 The Triumph of Fascism and World War II 63 Postwar Reform, Reconstruction, and Emergence as an Economic Superpower Cultural Heritage in the Twenty-first Century 69 Religion 70

4 Japanese Landscapes

77

Primary Characteristics of the Japanese Landscape Secondary Characteristics of the Landscape 95

5 Regional Reality

84

109

East and West, Center and Periphery, Omote-Nihon and Ura-Nihon Hokkaido III Tohoku 116 Kanto 121 Chubu 126 Kinki l37 Chugoku 148

109

69

Shikoku 151 Kyushu 154 Okinawa and the Nansei (Ryukyu) Islands

6

Demographic and Social Challenges

159

164

Falling Birthrates 167 Aging Society 169 Care of the Elderly 174 Population Distribution and Migration Patterns Literacy, Education, and Civility 181 Minority Groups in Japan 184 Overseas Migration of Japanese 187 Foreign Workers in Japan 190 The Status of Women 194 Social Welfare and the Homeless 198 The Gap between Rich and Poor 202

7

177

Rural Landscape, Settlements, and Agriculture

204

The Rural Landscape 204 Rural Settlements 206 Land Use and Recent Changes in Agriculture 208 Declining Rice Farming and Increasing Diversity of the Rural Economy Subsidies and the Future of Japanese Agriculture 226 Urban Agriculture in Japan 227 Land Reclamation for Agriculture 232 Maintaining the Vitality of Rural Communities 234

8

Urban Settlements

236

Early Historic Cities: Nara, Heiankyo (Kyoto), and Kamakura 237 Origins and Development of Cities in Feudal Japan 239 City Growth in the Modern Period (1868-2000) 243 The Japanese Megalopolis 248 Urban Development and Historical Preservation in the Megalopolis The Structure of the Tokyo Metropolitan Region 262 The Urban Development Challenge 276 Moving Japan's Capital 281

9

The Political Challenge

284

The Political Culture 284 The Current Political System 286 Political Changes in 1993: Causes and Consequences 292 The National Flag and the Anthem: Symbols to Unite That Divide Japan's Defense Policy 299 Territorial Disputes with Russia, China, and Korea 299 Japan, Asia, and the United States: Geopolitical Aspects 304 American Military Bases in Japan 305 Japan and Russia 310 Japan and Latin America 311

10

The Economic Challenge

261

312

Japan's Foreign Direct Investment 313 Japan's Economy, 1990-2004 315

298

220

Accounting Practices and Economic Woes: Japan's Bank Crisis Essentials for Future Economic Performance 318 The Challenge of Structural Reform 321

11

Development and Restructuring of Industry

323

From Zaibatsu to Keiretsu 325 Japanese Manufacturing Strategy 326 Industrial Regions 326 Industrial Restructuring in Japan 335

12

Postindustrial Japan

342

The Development of Technology in Japan 342 The Growth of the Semiconductor Industry 344 The Location of High-Technology Industries 345 Biotechnology Industries 348 The Information Technology (IT) Industry 350 The Internet Economy 352 Science Cities and the Technopolis 355 Future Prospects 357

13

The Challenge of Environmental Preservation Toxic Wastes 362 Grassroots Environmental Movements in Japan

14

Facing the Challenges

364

376

Three Major Transitions 376 Social Reforms for Sustainable Development 377 The Aging Society and the Falling Birthrate 379 The Future of the Countryside 382 The High-Technology Road 382 The Changing Lifestyles of the Young 383

Further Readings Index

393

387

359

317

MAPS AND FIGURES

5.3. Major horse farms in Hokkaido, 2000 113 5.4. Tohoku region 117 5.5. Kanto recion 122 5.6. Kanto Plain: Prefectures, major centers, and railroads 123 5.7. Kanto Plain: Terrain types 124 5.8. Chubu region 127 5.9. Kinki region 138 5.10. Underworld syndicates 142 5.11. Gangland battle sites 144 5.12. Nara Basin 146 5.13. Chugoku and Shikoku regions 149 5.14. Kyushu 155 5.15. Okinawa 159 6.1. Growth of population, 1925-2005 164 6.2. Demographic transition 166 6.3. Number of births and total fertility rate, 1947-99 167 6.4. Elementary school and university enrollment, 1900-1999 167 6.5. Population pyramid, 2000 171 6.6. Popplation age 85 and over, by prefecture 175 6.7. Distribution of population, 2000 177 6.8. Population density, 2000 180 6.9. Expenditure on Dowa projects, 1969-91 186 6.10. Ethnic Japanese and postwar Japanese emigrants in Latin America 188 6.11. Postwar Japanese settlements in the Amazon region 190 6.12. Foreign nationals entering Japan, 1990-99 191 6.13. Undocumented aliens 192 6.14. Homeless people in major urban areas, 2000 200 6.15. Causes of homelessness 200 7.1. Jori and shinden settlement patterns 207

1.1. Japan and the United States 1 2.1. Continental plates around the Japanese archipelago 11 2.2. Relief map of Japan 13 2.3. Volcanic areas and mountains 14 2.4. Alluvial plains, diluvial terraces, and mountains, Saitama Prefecture 17 2.5. Land use by terrain 17 2.6. Gradients ofJapanese rivers 18 2.7. Precipitation and temperature 20 2.8. Dates of autumn color 22 2.9. Forest cover in prefectures, 2000 23 2.10. Forest types 23 2.11. Japan's energy sources 29 2.12. Nuclear power in Japan, June 2001 32 2.13. Kikai Caldera 38 2.14. Unzen-Fugendake volcanic eruption, 1990-95 39 2.15. The path of Isewan Typhoon 42 2.16. Waju in the flood plain of Ibi and Nagara Rivers 43 2.17. Areas affected by ground subsidence 44 2.18. Land reclamation in Tokyo Bay 47 3.1. The historical evolution ofJapan 54 3.2. Major domains and castle towns 57 3.3. Transportation network in Tokugawa Japan 59 3.4. Edo, 1602 and 1868 60 3.5. Sino-Japanese War, 1937-45 64 3.6. The puppet state of Manchukuo 65 3.7. Pacific War, 1941-42 66 3.8. Pacific War, 1942-45 66 3.9. Secret germ warfare operations of Unit 731 68 3.10. Buddhist pilgrimage route in Shikoku 74 4.1. Vernacular regions ofJapan 78 5.1. Geographic regions 110 5.2. Hokkaido III

ix

x • Maps and Figures 7.2. Distribution of cultivated land by prefectures, 2000 209 7.3. Classification of cultivated land 210 7.4. Full-time and part-time farm households 211 7.5. Distribution of full-time and part-time farm households by prefectures 212 7.6. Agricultural zones 213 7.7. Agricultural gross income per commercial farm household 216 7.8. Dates of rice planting and harvesting 220 7.9. Loss of cultivated land by prefectures 230 7.10. Ariake Bay land reclamation 232 7.11. Nakaumi reclamation project 233 8.1. Tokugawa period castle towns 240 8.2. Stages of urban growth, 1920-2000 245 8.3. Major cities of Japan 247 8.4. Population of cities by wards, 2000 248 8.5. The Japanese megalopolis 250 8.6. Urban structure of Osaka 256 8.7. Urban structure of Kyoto 257 8.8. Earthquake damage in Kobe 258 8.9. Urban structure of Hiroshima 259 8.10. Tokyo Metropolitan Area 262 8.11. Tokyo city wards 263 8.12. Early-nineteenth-century Tokyo 264

8.13. Tokyo urban subcenters 269 8.14. Central Tokyo 270 9.1. Structure of the national government 287 9.2. Administrative divisions of Japan 288 9.3. Structure of the local government 289 9.4. Northern Territories dispute 301 9.5. Senkaku Islands dispute 303 9.6. Take Shima Island dispute 304 9.7. U.S. military bases 306 10.1. Manufacturing employment and unemployment rate 315 11.1. Industrial regions 327 11.2. Distribution of motor vehicle industries 339 12.1. Changes in employment structure since 1900 342 12.2. Distribution of high-technology factories 346 12.3. Japan's e-commerce sales, 1998, and projection for 2003 351 12.4. Schools and the Internet in Japan and the United States, 1994-2000 352 12.5. Technopolis centers 355 13.1. Environmental movements 365 13.2. Minamata 366

PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

In 1992-93, another visiting research professorship at the Tokyo University of Foreign Studies provided the opportunity for geographic field reconnaissance from Hokkaido to Kyushu. Professor Cotton Mather of the University of Minnesota, who had done extensive geographic research on Japan at the Office of Strategic Services in Washington, D.C., during World War II, accompanied me on these field trips. The idea for writing this book on challenges facing Japan in the twenty-first century from a geographic perspective originated in 1998 while I was doing field research in Atsumi Peninsula with Cotton Mather. I began work on the book in 2000 during my stay at Nagoya University on a research fellowship from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. The fellowship enabled me to travel again to all the Japanese prefectures and visit with people in various walks of life in both rural and urban areas: factory workers, farmers, grassroots activists, government officials, and academics. To those individuals whom I interviewed in Japan, lowe a debt of gratitude for revealing many rich details of their country's social and cultural geography. The book in many ways represents my personal observations and interactions with the Japanese people and their country. My experiences were greatly enlarged and my observations confirmed through discussions with other professional geographers and scholars. Several individuals deserve specific mention. Professor Toshi Ikegawa (University of Hawaii-Windward Community College) helped prepare an earlier version of the section on physical geography that appears in chapter 2. Professor Jonathan Taylor (California State University at Fullerton) wrote the section on entertainment districts in Japanese cities that is included in chapter 8.

Japan stands as one of the more intriguing nations in Asia. Despite Japan's important role as the second-largest economy in the world and a major trading and strategic partner of the United States, geographic studies ofJapan in the United States have been relatively scarce. The standard English-language geography, Japan: A Geography, by Glenn Trewartha, was published in 1965. Momentous changes have taken place in every facet of the nation during the last four decades. In the early 1980s Japan's growing economic strength was a source of concern in the United States and Europe. Now there is worry about an economy that is slow to reform and grow. Fundamental problems such as banks overburdened by bad loans, a dangerous ratio of national debt to gross domestic product, a rigid labor market, a highly regu1ated economy, and an aging population and shrinking labor force have eroded Japan's ability to playa larger world role. Today Japan is a far different nation than it was in the 1980s. This book discusses the land, people, and economy ofJapan from a geographic perspective and identifies the demographic, economic, and environmental challenges fadng the country in the twentyfirst century. The text integrates important new research published in Japan and elsewhere during the last two decades. Maps, graphs, and photographs provide a gripping portrait of the new Japan. I first became interested in the geography of Japan in the 1960s while spending several weeks each year in the country-on my way to field research in the Himalayas-to visit with Japanese Himalayanists. A visiting research professorship in 1985-86 at the Institute for the Study of Languages and Cultures of Asia and Africa, Tokyo, provided my first prolonged opportunity to travel throughout the Japanese islands. xi

xii • Preface and Acknowledgments The generous help and hospitality of many friends and colleagues ensured the success of my field visits in Japan. In particular, I want to thank Shigeru Iijima, professor emeritus at the Tokyo Institute of Technology, who first introduced me to Japan in the early 1960s. I also thank Professor Hiroshi Ishii and other colleagues at the Institute for the Study of Languages and Cultures of Asia and Africa and the Tokyo University of Foreign Studies, who provided great fellowship in the field and helped me establish contacts with Japanese officials and scholars in various parts of the country. Field observations in Japan in the 1990s were greatly facilitated by President Kazuaki Imoto of IEC Kyushu International College, Yatsushiro, Kyushu, and former Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa. The University of Kentucky Field Research Station at Yatsushiro also helped with my research trips around the archipelago. At Nagoya University I benefited immensely from discussions on various aspects of Japanese geography with Professors Kohei Okamoto, Tsunetoshi Mizoguchi, and Masatomo Umitsu. Graduate students at Nagoya-Toslubumi Takai, Yumiko Yonemoto, Yuichiro Nishimura, Daisuke Hirouchi, and Tun Tsuchiya-helped me contact other scholars and locate archival research materials. Kenji Ito of Meijo University; Kenkichi Nagao of the Institute for Economic Research, Osaka City University; Shii Okuno of the University of Marketing and Distribution Sciences, Kobe; Kazusei Kato of the Kansai University of Foreign Studies; Kenichi Nonaka of the Institute for the Study of Nature and Humanity, Kyoto; Koji Ohnishi of Toyama University; Shin'ichiro Sugiura of Kanazawa University; Shigeru Kobayashi of Osaka University; Noritaka Yagasaki of Tokyo Gakugei University; Toshio Mizuuchi of Osaka City University; Yuji Yamamoto of Osaka International University; Biren K. Jha, Barrister-at-Law in Tokyo; and Asabe Shin-ichi, independent journalist and television producer, provided many insightful comments on the geography of Japan and the challenges facing the country. Professor Okamoto and his students at Nagoya University played a key role in the evolution of this book. They read the manuscript and made many constructive suggestions. Their meticulous comments were invaluable, and I am deeply indebted to them for the time they spent to read the text and brainstorm over parts of it, and for their unflagging

interest. Professor Miranda Schreurs of the University of Maryland, Professor Todd Stradford of the University of Wisconsin-Platteville, and Professor Unryu Suganuma of Hokuriku University also read earlier drafts of the manuscript and offered encouraging, stimulating, and helpful comments. My students at the University of Kentucky in the Department of Geography and the Japan Studies Program provided many constructive comments. The book has benefited from the comments of all these individuals, but I alone am responsible for any errors. Richard Gilbreath, Director of the University of Kentucky Cartographic Laboratory, edited the maps prepared by Donna Gilbreath, cartographer, and student cartographers Jeff Casperson, Jacqueline Goins, Dave McLaughlin, Tony Morris, Gina Poore, John Poskin, Whitney Walker, and Tony Zerhusen. I am grateful to all of them for their splendid work. NOTE ON NUMERICAL CONVERSIONS

Most of the physical measures in this book are given in English units, with metric equivalents added for the convenience of readers who are more familiar with metric units. All references to tons, however, designate metric tons unless indicated otherwise. For yen-to-dollar conversions, the rate of exchange at the time of writing, 109 yen to a dollar in June 2004, has been used throughout for the sake of simplicity.

Chapter 1

JAPAN AT THE CROSSROADS

Grappling with Changes Japan. The name evokes thoughts of electronics, dials, lights, and numbers. This ancient civilization, with its Shinto shrines and Buddhist temples, is closely associated with all that is new and modern in our times. Looking outward, Japan sees what it has become since Hiroshima: a source of fury and wonder, the world's second-largest economy, a power without arms. Looking inward, Japan sees old ways shaken and new ones moving forward at a hectic pace. What is Japan like? Who are the Japanese people?

What are the challenges that they face in the twentyfirst century? Their characteristics collide: democracy and hierarchy; formality and chaos; the overfed wresder and the shrunken tree; daring modernity and traditional skills; permissiveness and restrictiveness. In form, Japan is a parliamentary democracy. Yet a single party, the Liberal Democrats, was in power for almost all the years since World War II. In form, Japan is a capitalist, free enterprise society. Yet bureaucrats, businessmen, and politicians seem to collude for the greater glory of Japan. Is this real democracy? A real free enterprise society? Some say Japan is continuous. It interweaves the

Fig. 1.1. Japan and the United States. Japan is America's neighbor across the Pacific. Tokyo is located about 3,000 miles (4,828 km) from the west coast of Alaska and a little over 6,000 miles (9,656 km) from Chicago. The four largest islands of Japan cover an area a bit smaller than California. Japan lies in the same latitude as the United States. The residents of the islands call their homeland Dai Nippon or Great Land of the Rising Sun.

2 • Japan in the 21st Century tradition of temples with the discovery of cameras. It heeds parental voices even while recording them. It tells yesterday's time promptly, digitally. Japan is viewed as seamless: A garden. A blossom. A stone. A brook. The haiku that fuses them together. The wizened figure in a kimono who recites the haiku. How do we assess such a culture? Where did the Japanese come from? Where are they going in the twenty-first century? And why are they as they are? Even more than most peoples, the Japanese have been shaped by their environment. From the dawn of their history, close communication and often precarious coexistence with nature have dominated almost all aspects of the national character and culture. In chapter 2, we will examine a few of the natural features of this island nation, which have played such an important role in the making of the Japanese. In the other chapters we will explore Japan's social, economic, and political structure as it affects Japan's twenty-first-century role in the world. We will try to understand its environment, culture, and economy within the context of geography, and you will find explanations that clarify much of what seems so contradictory about Japan and the Japanese. All nations seek greatness, but few achieve it. During the past half century, Japan has attained this rare status. This claim will stand despite all of Japan's obvious flaws. The past fifty years constitute the greatest epoch of all Japanese history, outweighing the Heian age with its splendid writers, the Kamakura era with its great religious thinkers, the epoch of the warring states with its military heroes, and the Edo

period with its unprecedented flowering of political reflection. Between 1945 and 2000, more Japanese have lived more decently, enjoyed better health and more prosperity, while benefiting from greater freedom and peace, than at any other time in recorded history. This is a singular triumph. Even more astonishing, the postwar labors of the Japanese people have all but ensured that Japan's name will be added to that very select list of nations that have successively stood at the spear point of economic progress during those years. Against enormous odds and the weight of history, Japan has transcended its obvious weaknesses (its physical constraints and its dependence on imported raw materials and export markets, for example) to play the predominant role in a historic transformation: the shift of the center of economic activity and initiative from the Atlantic to the Pacific. More than the decolonization of Asia and Africa, this marked the end of the long era of Western domination of world history. Japan's economic surge has helped to spark the revival of East Asian energies after two centuries of decline and turmoil. More importantly, the Japanese model has demonstrated that a people can successfully pursue their own destiny in defiance of economic laws and the iron cage of rationalization. Unique among the advanced industrial nations, Japan developed a benevolent society in which many employees are valued throughout the whole of their working lives. The postwar Japanese family blunted

The high-speed, superexpress bullet train (shinkansen) symbolizes Japan's natural beauty and impressive technology. These high-speed trains travel almost silently and without vibration at more than 100 miles (161 km) per hour, and they run nearly the entire length of the country. Wind and earthquake detectors and rain gauges are installed along the entire line to warn of impending natural disasters. In case of an earthquake, the current is automatically shut down, and the train in the danger area stops; if there is high wind or heavy rain, the train's running speed is automatically reduced, or the train is stopped. Photo by P.P. Karan.

Japan at the Crossroads • 3 Despite modernization and urbanization, Japanese people have made major efforts to preserve their culture and tradition through a variety of festivals celebrated at various times during the year. A dance performance in Tokyo's Asakusa district at the Tanabata Matsuri is celebrated on the seventh day of the seventh month (July 7). Many festivals in Japan have their origins in tradition and are related to the annual cycle of planting, growing, and harvesting, which followed the four seasons. Festivals were observed when a major task in rice cultivation was completed. They gave rhythm to life in a village community. During the festivals many urban Japanese return to their former village homes. A large proportion of the population of metropolitan areas have rural roots, their families having lived in the cities only for two or three generations. Photo by P.P. Karan.

the pain of modernity. A delicate Japanese balance permitted the maximum division of labor (the father's total commitment to the workplace, matched by the full educational mobilization of the children, with the mother playing the role of indispensable family anchor). At the same time a higher standard of civilized life is reflected in the freedom of a woman to walk alone in the city, day or night, unafraid. That such freedom has been secure in this huge society almost without interruption through all the stresses and strains of the postwar era is astonishing. Two decades ago Japan was praised as a nation with small government, balanced budget, and economic vitality. Japanologists such as Chalmers Johnson and Ezra Vogel described the Japanese state as a growth-oriented "developmental state" (Johnson 1982; Vogel 1979, 2000) in which the state bureaucracy, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of International Trade and Industry in particular,' collaborating with business associations and the Liberal Democratic Party, coordinated market activities and allocated resources efficiently to promote economic growth. One of the major institutional instruments of the developmental state system was the linkage of public and private finances, in which leading ministries controlled the Bank of Japan's finan1 The central government underwent a major reorganization in January 2001, and the names of the ministries have changed.

Traditional Japanese clothing, such as the kimono worn by this woman, is no longer part of everyday life and is reserved for special ceremonial occasions. Japanese adopted Western-style clothing in the mid-nineteenth century. Until the recession of the 1990s the Japanese topped the list of big fashion spenders on clothing. Now, it's good-bye to designer suits as Japanese taste is drifting down-market. Photo by P.P. Karan.

4 • Japan in the 21st Century cial policy as a means of growth-oriented economic policy. However, in the 1990s Japan's fiscal condition worsened, and its economic growth rate became one of the lowest in Asia (Yoichi 2000). The "Developmental Public Work State" failed. As the twenty-first century began, a sense of greatness did not define Japan's mood. Fears of national stasis, even retreat, persisted despite evidence that the recent recession was at last easing. The 1980s taught the Japanese to celebrate their success; then the 1990s provoked the most severe crisis of national confidence since 1945. For the first time since the brutal ending of the Pacific War, the Japanese have been forced to brood on why countries decline and fall. Just a few years ago, Japan was a country so dedicated to extravagance that some restaurants even offered meals topped with gold dust, a tribute to corporate expense accounts, and executives were picking up Armani suits and patches of American real estate as if they were stuffing a gift bag with baubles. National spending soared. But now after several years of near-zero growth, many Japanese are anxious about their future. The collapse ofJapan's "bubble" economy is having a dramatic impact on consumer behavior. Traditionally, Japanese consumers placed overwhelming priority on a product's quality and on luxury brand names: Hermes scarves, Prada handbags, Rolex watches, fashion and leather goods from Louis Vuitton, Tiffany, Giorgio Armani, and Bvlgari. Since 1996 sales of luxury goods have declined by more than one-third, to 1.2 trillion yen ($10.8 billion), according to Yano Research Institute. That is a big change from the heady 1980s, when the average Japanese was flush with cash. But consumer behavior changed when the economy slipped into reverse more than a decade ago. The lifetime employment system began to crumble, disposable incomes declined, and consumers started to look harder at what they were buying. Young Japanese working women living with their parents have room in their budgets to shop for luxuries. The number of young working women is dwindling, however. Japan's population is aging rapidly, and the sluggish economy, rising unemployment, and higher taxes mean that the smaller new generation of young adults tends to have less to spend. Now economic uncertainty and political inertia have altered the tendency to shop for mainstream brands like Gap and its Japanese equivalent,

The idea of dressing down arrived in Japan in the 1990s with the recession. Uniqlo, a Japanese retailer, often called the clone of the Gap, is growing rapidly. Young women in Japan now tend to wear simple casual clothing sold at stores similar to Kmart and Target. Gone are the heady 1980s, when Japanese were dressed in the likes of Gucci and Hanae Mori; when Japanese companies seemed unstoppable; when some Japanese and Western commentators opined that Japan had developed a form of capitalism newer and better than that practiced elsewhere. All this now smacks of hubris. Photo by P.P. Karan.

Uniqlo. Japanese are becoming much more bargainconscious and are willing to buy at Wal-Mart, which opened its first store in Yokohama in partnership with Seiyu, Japan's fourth-largest retailer. This price sensitivity is causing a revolution in the distribution of goods. Japanese consumers have stopped making weekend shopping forays to expensive department stores, opting instead for suburban discount centers. In the Tokyo and Osaka areas alone, there are at least eight major megamalls under construction hoping to take advantage of the changes. Most of these malls are American-inspired projects and feature America's best specialty retailers and American-style entertainment venues. Large department stores such as Sogo collapsed in 2000 because they had borrowed heavily and overexpanded; they paid the price when real estate values fell in the 1990s. The squeeze on Sogo came about when banks faced new competition from overseas and a deregulated financial system, which could no longer keep shaky companies on life support forever. Japanese banks are cleaning up their balance sheets; in the

Japan at the Crossroads • 5

years approach-is on the horizon, efforts to get older citizens to spend their life savings are unlikely to succeed. Frugality is sweeping Japanese society as it enters the new millennium. Magazines offer suggestions for saving, telling readers that microwave cooking is half as expensive as gas-burner cooking and recommending baths rather than showers or small instead of large televisions. A long recession notwithstanding, shops dealing in used goods are going strong. The trend is endorsed by cheap prices and a changing awareness of consumers, who now value quality more than newness and who are also interested in environmental issues. A case in point is the recent rise in the number of secondhand golf-club shops, which were hard to come across a few years ago, and Despite the collapse of the asset-inflated economic bubble in 100-yen stores (similar to the Dollar General stores 1990 and the general business slowdown, new shopping malls in the United States). More than two hundred usedsuch as this one, called Apita, in suburban Nagoya, are being constructed all across the country in response to strong con- golf-club outlets opened in 2000, and about the same sumer demand by the young Japanese. The stores that fill the number have contracted to become part of Golf Partmall include outlets for Lands End, Gap, Starbucks Coffee, ner, a franchise chain that opened in 1999. The rapid McDonald's, and Eddie Bauer. Each day cars jam the parking growth of shops selling used goods contrasts sharply structures adjoining the shopping complex. Consumers are willwith the slow growth in consumption. The Ministry ing to spend on luxury items that are discounted and quality rtems that are inexpensive in shopping malls.Thanks to cheaper of Economy, Trade, and Industry's Commercial Cenland in the 1990s and looser regulations, the shopping mall sus shows that there were 10,568 used-goods retailconcept is taking root in suburban Japan. Photo by P.P. Karan. ers in Japan in 1999, an increase of24.9 percent from 1997. That growth is astonishing considering that the overall number of retailers decreased 7.5 percent in short term this may result in job losses that will de- the same period. Until recently, many Japanese were unwilling to lay economic recovery. Most scholars say that Japan must swallow strong medicine in order to rise again. buy secondhand goods. But the negative feeling has Japanese banks are now shifting themselves from been dying down, particularly among young people. government control, while companies are casting off In an Economic Planning Agency survey in August the control of banks. Strings of interdependence, 2000,47.9 percent of the respondents reported buywhich crisscross among Japanese companies two or ing books and CDs at secondhand shops. About 31 three times, are being snipped one by one. For ex- percent had purchased used clothes, and about 24 ample, Nissan Motor Company, supported previ- percent had bought used children's wear. Consumously by the Industrial Bank of Japan, Japan's main ers are more aware now than in the 1980s of the balbank, chose to survive as a member of France's ance between price and quality, as evidenced by the Renault group, which introduced Western-style pric- extraordinary success of clothes retailer Uniqlo, ing and smashed entrenched and often costly cor- which made its name with its own brand of clothing at reasonable prices. Japan's society may be moving porate relationships. Japan's elderly citizens have enough money (54 from one ftlled with disposable goods to one that percent of the nation's personal assets), and they emphasizes recycled products. could revive the economy if they spent a little more. Cost cutting has increased household savings in But fear of the future deters seniors from opening Japan, which have climbed to 21 percent of dispostheir wallets. Without strong evidence that a well- able income, from about 18.5 percent in 1991. Houseconstructed social security system-one that could hold savings were less than 5 percent in the United ease the anxiety senior citizens feel as their declining States. Savings cut domestic consumption and thus

8uccess turns sour. 80go Department 8tore chain in Toyota City was closed in 2000. The financial collapse of 80go, one of the largest chain stores in Japan, was a shocking reminder of Japan's economic problems. 80go borrowed huge amounts of money from banks, overexpanded during the 1980s real estate boom, and paid the price when values fell in the 1990s. 80go started in 1830 as a secondhand kimono shop, and it was a struggling 3-store department chain until 1962, when it became transformed into a retailing colossus with 41 outlets in Japan and overseas. 80go opened stores near busy railway stations and bought nearby land. As business took off at the department store, surrounding land rose in value, providing collateral for further expansion. Trouble began as land prices fell after the burst of the bubble economy. By 1994 80go was in default, but it was still opening stores in 1998. When the end finally came in 2000, 80go had racked up more than $17 billion in debt, making the corporate collapse one of the biggest in postwar Japanese history. Photo by PP Karan.

Japan at the Crossroads' 7

increase the trade surplus. In Japan, women often control the household purse strings, and one sign of the times is the dwindling allowances that wives give their husbands. It is the habit of parsimony that will help fortify the Japanese economy and society in the long run, because those billions are recycled into moneymaking investment projects throughout the international economy. What a difference a dozen years can make! When the Japanese stock market was at its peak in 1989, many experts around the world foresaw Japan capturing global economic and industrial leadership. Japanese companies bought up chunks of Hollywood and New York real estate; they talked about their nation's gross national product surpassing America's in the twenty-first century. Many Japanese thought the twenty-first century would be the Japanese century. But after years of unremitting economic struggles since the 1990 burst of the "bubble economy:' that seems unlikely. Japanese books, business magazines, and dailies are now arguing thatlike Britain a century ago-Japan may be in an inexorable decline in international prestige and economic might. Many business leaders and ordinary citizens say that unless the economy is freed of regulatory barriers, the bureaucracy is reorganized, and the approach to policymaking is changed, Japan's aging society and the flight of manufacturing industries to lower-wage countries will bring about even greater economic problems. About four-fifths of the Japanese economy, including the financial industry, lumbers through commerce under heavy regulation. Japan has outgrown the postwar set of restrictions and must replace them with more market-oriented capitalism. For the regulated swath of the economy, the transition toward market mechanisms is fraught with growing pains. The Japanese government has talked about transforming Japan's economy and the financial system but has not been able to accomplish much. The bureaucrats who sit at the apex of the current system don't share the conviction that change is needed-in their view the old machinery needs only a bit of tweaking. Meanwhile, the nation's political leaders have demonstrated neither the ability nor the inclination to push for real reforms. The public wants politicians to reform Japan's economic structure and to exercise leadership in

making a breakthrough in the current sluggish economic environment. This sentiment is a reflection of the political confusion and economic stagnation of the 1990s, which has been dubbed "the lost decade;' In any country, although politics leads the economy, the economy can also move politics. Therefore, if an economic malaise caused by a crisis of politics persists for a long time, the power of the economic sector eventually will change the political structures. In Japan such a move has already begun at the local government level, as evidenced by the 2000 gubernatorial elections in Tochigi and Nagano, and it might not be long before the political scene at the national level is also transformed. When is Japan going to recover, restructure, and take off again? The question is simple, the answer very complicated. There are daunting obstacles in the way of dynamic change, including a mountain of bad bank loans, excessive regulation, and informal as well as formal barriers to open markets. There is a realtime urgency. Not only does the world need Japan as an ongoing engine for growth, but growth is by far the best answer to Japan's government debt burden and the fiscal consequences of the nation's rapidly approaching demographic problems. Most Japanese accept that change is needed, but there is a lack of determination to implement any reforms that would cause real pain. Although deregulation and liberalization are recognized as important policy issues, several issues combine to keep the pace of change disappointingly slow. The rapid aging of the population has implications for the structure of the future labor force, the savings rate, and the government's budget. The banking system is heavily burdened by bad debt. The government's fiscal position has also deteriorated rapidly, largely owing to the implementation during the 1990s of successive fiscal stimulus packages (about $826 billion) and to the sluggish tax revenue growth. Deflation. Recession. Huge public debts. Insolvent banks. Even amid this economic gloom, some Japanese are less worried than optimistic. Japan may not rival America in innovation, but it has repeatedly shown prowess in catching up with the West. It is a kind of social phenomenon that Japan as a country starts to move when it is triggered by pessimism. Japan maintains a hope for success and a sense of crisis as it faces the challenges of the twenty-first century. Given the resourcefulness that produced its

8 • Japan in the 21st Century postwar economic miracle, Japan is likely to emerge from a decade of stagnation and reestablish sustained economic growth. This book discusses the challenges facing Japan in the twenty-first century in the context of the country's geography. Chapter 2 deals with environmental challenges and constraints. The historical and cultural roots of Japan, which provide the background for understanding the contemporary challenges, are the topic of chapter 3. A comprehensive account of the landscape and regions of the country, which provide the stage for the nation's development, is found in chapters 4 and 5. Ancient Chinese culture and politics have influenced Japan. Religion in Japan, during much of its history, has centered on Shintoism and Buddhism. The philosophy of Confucianism, which respects humility and requires strict hierarchical relationships, deeply penetrated Japanese society. As a result Japanese culture differs from that of the West in many respects. The Tokugawa (Edo) era, which began in the early seventeenth century, established a closedcountry policy that built a unique culture and societal system. In the latter half of the nineteenth century, Japan opened itself to external influence with the arrival of Commodore Perry's black ships. The Meiji Restoration, which more definitively opened Japan's door to the West, introduced European science, technology, and political systems and resulted in earnest efforts to build a modern state. Initially, Japan modeled itself after the German brand of constitutional monarchy and established an imperial parliament. Because of its declining birthrate, Japan is facing an aging society. The average life expectancy in Japan is the highest in the world for both men and

women. The challenges of demography, particularly those related to the aging society, are discussed in chapter 6. The problems of the rural and urban areas are described in chapters 7 and 8. The postwar political culture, attempts to reform the political system, and Japan's relations with its neighbors are analyzed in chapter 9. The end of World War II saw the Japanese economy developing swiftly, becoming the second-largest in the world, behind only the United States in terms of gross domestic product. However, the economic bubble burst in the 1990s owing to unchecked speculation, the appreciation of the yen, and the progression of information technology that propelled the globalization of Japanese companies. Economic challenges, including the shift in management methods from the one that had been established in Japanese culture and institutions, marked by the seniority system, lifetime employment, and group decision making, to a method that recognizes openness, fairness, and speed; industrial restructuring; and the problems of the postindustrial sector of the economy, are discussed in chapters lO, 11, and 12. Chapter 13 treats the impact of rapid development on environment and the citizens' movement to protect the local environment. Chapter 14 pulls together major ideas that hear on the challenges confronting Japan in the twenty-first century. REFERENCES Johnson, Chalmers. 1982. MITI and the Japanese Miracle, 192575. Stanford, CA: Stanford Univ. Press. Vogel, Ezra. 1979. Japan as Number One: Lessons for America. London: Harper. - - . 2000. Is Japan Still Number One? Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia: Pelanduk. Yoichi, Masuzoe. 2000. uars of Trial: Japan in the 199Os. Tokyo: Japan Echo.

Chapter 2

ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES AND CONSTRAINTS

between Seattle and Los Angeles. The northernmost part of Japan lies in the latitude of Maine, and the southern areas lie in the latitudes of southern Alabama. The southern chain of the small Nansei (Ryukyu) Islands extends more than 700 miles (I, 100 km). The Nansei Islands, between Kyushu and Taiwan, lie in the latitude of the Florida Keys and central Mexico. The Izu and Ogasawara Islands extend more than 1,000 miles (1,600 km) between the capital city of Tokyo and the tropical Mariana Islands. This geographic reach of the Japanese islands is unusually long. The Sea of Okhotsk, the Sea of Japan, the East China Sea, and the Pacific Ocean surround Japan. The three seas, which cover part of the Asian continental shelf, are shallower than the Pacific Ocean to the east. The Korea Strait between the Island of Tsushima and Korea is only 31 miles (50 km) wide and 500 feet (150 m) deep. In contrast, on the east side of Japan, the floor of the Pacific Ocean drops away quickly into the zones of tectonic subduction forming the Chishima-Kamchatka, Japan (Tuscarora), and Izu-Ogasawara trenches. One of the greatest ocean depths in the world is found in the Japan trench at 35,040 feet (10,680 m). Another oceanic feature is that a cold surface ocean current, the Oyashio, from northern polar waters, meets with a strong warm surface current, the Kuroshio, from southern equatorial waters, off the east coast of Japan. The Oyashio, also known as the Chishima (Kuri) Current, literally means "parent" current because it has provided good fishing. The Kuroshio, also known as the Japan or Black Current, literally means "black" current and is named for its dark color. The Kuroshio is one of the strongest ocean currents in the world-as strong as the Gulf Stream. A tributary of the Kuroshio, the warm

What challenges and constraints does the natural environment offer to Japan? What is the influence of nature on the country's society and culture? What impact will the environmental challenges have on Japan's role in the twenty-first century? The Japanese dwell in a dynamic and ever-shifting, even though restricted, natural setting, from cold northern seas to tepid southern waters. There is striking diversity in geography and environment from region to region. These differences have been a major factor in creating the unique blend that is Japanese culture. A slender mountain range stretching down the middle forms the backbone of the island nation. There are basin lands between the mountains and small plains along the coast. THE PHYSICAL SETTING OF JAPAN

Physically, Japan is made up of a ragged chain of islands scattered as a crescent off the east coast of Asia. In terms of size, these islands are but a footnote to the great landmass of Asia. But that footnote is where the Japanese have carved out their life and developed their culture. The total area, about 146,000 square miles (378,000 sq km) is one-twenty-fifth the size of the United States, about the same size as Italy, and less than the area of California. Only three West European countries (France, Spain, and Sweden) are larger than Japan. The elongated shape of the Japanese archipelago in the north-south direction has played an important role in shaping the country's natural and cultural landscapes. The entire archipelago covers 25 degrees oflatitude, from 45° N to 20 o N,about 1,740 miles (2,800 km) along the meridian. The four major islands cover a total north-south distance of nearly 1,150 miles (1,850 km), which is about the same as the distance between St. Paul and New Orleans or 9

10 • Japan in the 21st Century

Wakkanai, an ice-free port on Soya Strait between the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan, is a major fishing center in northern Hokkaido. Wakkanai forms the northernmost tip of Japan at latitude 45° 31' north, and Japan extends southwest from Hokkaido to the Ryukyu Islands, north of Taiwan. Photo by P.P. Karan.

Tsushima Current, enters the Sea of Japan through the Korea Strait and plays an important role in the climate of Japan. GEOLOGIC STRUCTURE

The Japanese islands are located at the junction of major ever-shifting tectonic plates (see fig. 2.1). Some of these plates are enormous-the rocks underlying much of the Pacific Ocean, for example, rest on a single Pacific plate 6,210 miles (10,000 km) widewhereas others span only a couple hundred miles. What distinguishes a plate, however, is that it moves as a cohesive body across the surface of the earth. The motion is slow, usually on the order of two inches or less per year. As a plate moves, it grinds or knocks against its neighbors; this plate-to-plate interaction produces the majority of the earthquakes in Japan. The Japanese archipelago was created by crustal movements involving four major tectonic plates: the Pacific plate underlying the western Pacific, the Eurasian plate beneath the Asian landmass and the Sea of Japan, the North American plate in the north, and the Philippine plate to the south. Ocean deeps mark the lines of collision between the plates. The intermittent sliding of the ocean bed along the deeps results in earthquakes and tidal waves called tsunamis. The friction of movement deep beneath the western plates melts the surrounding crust, which spews forth as volcanoes that run along the entire island chain. The volcanic zones, many of which contain hot springs, have considerable value as tourist attractions.

The largest earthquakes have originated in the subducted Philippine and Pacific plates, although the havoc wrecked on Kobe by the 1995 Hanshin earthquake reveals the hazard posed by shallow crustal quakes to densely populated cities. The complex geologic structure of the islands offers an explanatory framework for its complicated geomorphology (Yamazaki 1996), which in turn often provides meaningful explanations for the diverse physical and cultural landscapes of Japan. Two major geologic features of the Japanese islands are the Fossa Magna and the Median Tectonic Line. The Fossa Magna is a great structural depression or rift valley in central Honshu created by block faulting. The western edge of the Fossa Magna is known as the Itoigawa-Shizuoka Line. The eastern edge is not clear because of volcanic activity in the Quaternary period, but it most likely runs through Naoetsu in Niigata Prefecture and Choshi in Chiba Prefecture. The Fossa Magna divides northeastern from southwestern Japan. Northeast of the Fossa Magna, Honshu runs in a north-south direction, and to the southwest it runs east and west. In general, in the northeastern part of Japan, the Pacific Ocean side is geologically older than the Sea ofJapan side. In contrast, in the southwestern part, the Pacific Ocean side is geologically younger than the Sea of Japan side. The Median Tectonic Line is one of the major fault lines longitudinally dissecting the Japanese islands. The origin of the line is traced back to the

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