Japan and ASEAN, Always in Tandem: Towards a More Advantageous Win-Win Relationship through My "Three Arrows" 9789814519052

Table of contents :
CONTENTS
I. Welcome Remarks
II. Japan and ASEAN, Always in Tandem
III. Japan and ASEAN, Always in Tandem Towards a More Advantageous Win-Win Relationship through My “Three Arrows” (Japanese version)

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Japan and asean, always in Tandem

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The Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) was established as an autonomous organization in 1968. It is a regional research centre dedicated to the study of socio-political, security and economic trends and developments in Southeast Asia and its wider geostrategic and economic environment. The Institute’s research programmes are the Regional Economic Studies (RES, including ASEAN and APEC), Regional Strategic and Political Studies (RSPS), and Regional Social and Cultural Studies (RSCS). ISEAS Publishing, an established academic press, has issued more than 2,000 books and journals. It is the largest scholarly publisher of research about Southeast Asia from within the region. ISEAS Publishing works with many other academic and trade publishers and distributors to disseminate important research and analyses from and about Southeast Asia to the rest of the world.

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Singapore Lecture 26 July 2013

Japan and Asean, always in Tandem Towards a More Advantageous Win-Win Relationship through My “Three Arrows”

Shinzo Abe

Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore

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Published in Singapore in 2013 by ISEAS Publishing Institute of Southeast Asian Studies 30 Heng Mui Keng Terrace Pasir Panjang Singapore 119614 E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://bookshop.iseas.edu.sg © 2013 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore ISEAS Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data

Abe, Shinzō, 1954 Japan and ASEAN, always in tandem : towards a more advantageous win-win relationship through my “three arrows”. (Singapore lecture series, 0129-1912 ; [33]) 1. Japan—Relations—Southeast Asia. 2. Southeast Asia—Relations—Japan. 3. Japan—Economic policy—1989 4. Japan—Economic conditions—1989 5. Technological innovations--Government policy—Japan. 6. Agriculture and state—Japan. 7. Medical care—Government policy—Japan. I. Singapore Lecture (33rd : 2013 : Singapore) II. Title. III. Series: Singapore lecture series ; [33]. DS501 I597 no. 33         2013 ISBN 978-981-4519-04-5 (soft cover) ISBN 978-981-4519-05-2 (e-book, PDF) All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, translated, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photo­copying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. Typeset by International Typesetters Pte Ltd Printed in Singapore by Markono Print Media Pte Ltd

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CONTENTS I

Welcome Remarks

Tharman Shanmugaratnam

1

II Japan and ASEAN, Always in Tandem: Towards a More Advantageous Win-Win Relationship through My “Three Arrows” (English translation)

Shinzo Abe

5

III Japan and ASEAN, Always in Tandem: Towards a More Advantageous Win-Win Relationship through My “Three Arrows” (Japanese version)

Shinzo Abe

19

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I Welcome Remarks Tharman Shanmugaratnam

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance

His Excellency Shinzo Abe, Prime Minister of Japan Excellencies Distinguished Guests Ladies and Gentlemen It is with great pleasure that I welcome all of you to the 33rd Singapore Lecture. We are honoured to have with us this afternoon the Prime Minister of Japan, His Excellency Shinzo Abe. To Prime Minister Abe, thank you for agreeing to deliver the Singapore Lecture during what I know is a very short and busy trip to Singapore for you. Singapore and Japan share a warm and comprehensive relationship characterised by deep economic ties and wide-ranging cooperation in areas such as health, the environment and cultural exchanges. Prime Minister Abe himself has played an important role in advancing these relations. In 2007, together with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, he mooted the idea of setting up a Japan Creative Centre, or JCC, in Singapore to promote Japan’s cutting-edge technologies as well as Japanese arts and culture. The first of its kind outside of Japan, the JCC has become an enduring symbol of the long-standing ties between our two countries.

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Prime Minister Abe’s bilateral visit to Singapore today follows from Prime Minister Lee’s visit to Japan in May. It also marks Prime Minister Abe’s third visit to Southeast Asia after taking office in December last year, a clear reflection of the importance he places on building relations with our region. Since his re-election to the premiership, Prime Minister Abe has prioritised Japan’s economic recovery and diplomacy in the regional and global arena. He has rolled out a series of bold macroeconomic policies and reforms aimed at revitalising the Japanese economy. Collectively dubbed “Abenomics”, these policies will be the focus of today’s Singapore Lecture. Prime Minister Abe was known to be a skilled archery player in his college days. It is therefore no coincidence that the combination of monetary policy, fiscal policy and structural reform initiatives that comprise the new approach in Japan’s economic strategies is referred to as the “three arrows of Abenomics”. Singapore and the rest of the world watches the flight of the three arrows, and especially the progress of the third arrow of structural reforms, with great interest. Prime Minister Abe’s policy moves come at a crucial juncture, with the advanced economies still emerging from the throes of a deep financial crisis. Asia too is seeing increased uncertainties, although it remains the largest source of growth in the world economy. Asia’s growth will be more resilient and confidence in the region stronger, with an economically vibrant Japan. There indeed remains a strong complementarity between economic prospects in Japan and ASEAN. Success in “Abenomics” will provide a boost to the ASEAN economies through greater trade and investment. In turn, Japan’s re-engagement of the region is expected to add strength to its own economic recovery.

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While Japan faces challenges, we should not forget that Japan is still a fount of new technologies and culture, reflecting deep fundamental strengths. These are strengths that Singapore and the region have benefited from over the last few decades and have more to learn from. As Prime Minister Abe said earlier this year, he is back and so is Japan. We look forward to Japan’s important contribution to the prosperity and stability of the region under Prime Minister Abe’s leadership. Excellencies, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, I now invite Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to deliver the 33rd Singapore Lecture. Thank you.

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II JAPAN AND ASEAN, ALWAYS IN TANDEM Towards a More Advantageous Win-Win Relationship through My “Three Arrows” Shinzo Abe

Prime Minister of Japan

Introduction Deputy Prime Minister, Deputy Chairman Wong Ah Long, Excellencies, Ladies and gentlemen, I am very grateful to have been invited to deliver this Singapore Lecture. I would also like to express my sincere appreciation to everyone at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies for affording me this opportunity. I consider myself to have been presented with a very timely opportunity today, in two or three senses. Five days ago on Sunday, Japan held an election to select half of the members of our House of Councillors. Today is my first opportunity since the election to deliver a structured talk on Japanese economy and various other issues. Most importantly of all, the will to change has returned to Japan, and so has strength. The “revolving door” politics with its high turnover for which Japan is now known has disappeared and is now a thing of the past.

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The second sense in which today’s address is timely is that three days ago, Japan made its debut in the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement process, joining the negotiations underway in Malaysia, your neighbour. I am intent on Japan expanding the potential of the economy of the Asia-Pacific region further, together with the United States and the other member countries in the negotiations. The third reason is that this year marks exactly the fortieth year of ASEAN-Japan relations. To commemorate this, Japan has invited the ASEAN heads of state and government to Japan in December, when we will hold a special summit. Today is therefore a truly ideal opportunity to consider the future of ASEAN-Japan relations.

The Significance of Our Victory in the House of Councillors Election In the House of Councillors election five days ago, our party was granted a strong mandate from the Japanese people, a rare occurrence in recent years. The ruling coalition has now successfully attained a majority in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors. Over the past few years an anaemic economy in Japan has engendered feeble politics, which in turn weakens the economy further. We have been experiencing a negative chain of weakening that extends to our diplomacy and national security. Ongoing deflation has made people gloomy in their outlook and inward-focused right to their core.

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In order to overturn this situation, we needed immediately and simultaneously to strengthen the economy while working towards greater stability and robustness politically. I believe that through the recent election, at a minimum we were able to achieve stability in politics. That said, we have still done nothing more than head to our starting point. In the third quarter of 2012, far from expanding, the Japanese economy instead contracted at an annualized rate of minus 3.6 percent. Yet the Japanese economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.1 percent in the first quarter of this year under my economic policy. If the Japanese economy were to continue to grow at this pace for a year, it would be equivalent to the new emergence of an economy the size of Israel’s. Japan has lost as much as US$500 billion in gross national income during the deflationary period of the last few years. This is the same as a country the size of Norway simply disappearing from the face of the earth. Needless to say, our tax base has shrunk accordingly, and we have become unable to maintain our public finances without relying on government bonds. Now you can see the picture. Without growth, there can be no fiscal reconstruction. Without growth, we can neither maintain nor enhance our social security system. And without growth, a strengthening of our diplomacy or national security will also be simply impossible. I trust that from this,

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the situation has become clear to you. All of these are predicated on economic growth. Borrowing a phrase from the late Margaret Thatcher, I have said that these are cases of “TINA” — “There Is No Alternative.” Moreover, a technology- and knowledge-intensive economy like Japan’s cannot enhance its productivity unless it takes advantage of innovation. What we need is the bold reform of our regulatory regime. This will serve as an external catalyst, much like the TPP negotiations. It will create new added value through dynamic competition and cooperation, which will extend beyond national borders to straddle the entire economic area. Achieving this will require robust political power that takes on vested interests. I feel that through this recent election, we now at long last hold in our hands the trigger for pointing both politics and the economy towards a better and then still better direction. All that remains for us is the execution of these plans. We have now reached a state of TINA. Truly, there is no alternative.

Aiming to Catch Up to and Then Overtake Singapore Since I achieved my comeback as Prime Minister at the end of last year, I have been promoting policies known as my “three arrows” to put the Japanese economy on a growth track once more. These “three arrows” are, specifically, monetary policy, fiscal policy, and a strategy for growth.

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From now on, we will be engaged in firing off the “third arrow” in particular. Implementing reforms will be the first and foremost political issue for us to tackle starting this autumn. We need to fortify the Japanese economy in substantial ways and increase real income. At the same time we must put public finances on a sustainable course. We must not lose our momentum. We will take a decision immediately this autumn on investment tax credits that will strongly incentivize companies. I will convene an extraordinary session of the Diet, aiming to enact in rapid-fire succession laws necessary for regulatory reform, laws to facilitate corporate restructuring, and more. In the months and years to come, Japan will transform into a more open economy. We will become an economy that applauds and assists those entrepreneurs that rise to their feet over and over again using their business failures as nourishment, strengthening them for future endeavours. It will be an economy in which those who actively take on challenges will be rewarded. We will become an economy that stimulates innovation in order to cultivate Japan’s technologies still further, from basic science to medical care and agricultural technologies. “Openness” — openness to other countries — “challenges” — actively taking on challenges — and “innovation” are the key concepts that will guide our reforms at all times.

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In order to break through the regulatory regime that has already petrified solid, much like bedrock, we need both a powerful drill and a sturdy drill bit. In a speech I delivered in London recently, I said that I myself intend to become that sturdy drill bit. I will restate here the same point I made then. We will advance regulatory reforms in the fields of electricity, agriculture, and medical services while promoting new services and new industries. From there, we will elicit the vitality of the Japanese economy. I will also push forward with special zones that will serve as showcases for regulatory reforms, capitalizing on indomitable political power to establish National Strategic Special Zones whose progress I myself will supervise as Prime Minister. This summer, Japan’s tourist sites are bustling with visitors from around Asia. We expect the number of visitors to increase to a degree never seen before. Going forward, we will also work together with non-Japanese entities to improve our infrastructure to enable foreign visitors to enjoy Japan’s tourist sites. We have been saying for some time that we want to be the most business friendly country in the world. I wholeheartedly hope for Japan to catch up to Singapore in this regard and, if possible, even overtake Singapore. To those in the audience today, let me say that Japan avidly welcomes your investment. I call this “Invest in Japan,” or “double-I J.” Feel free to repeat it, — it rolls off the tongue. Invest in Japan: “double-I J.”

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The Power of Dreams Some say that Shinzo Abe will ultimately be defeated if he takes on the vested interests surrounding agriculture and medical services. However they are wrong in presupposing that there will be little growth in those sectors and as a result the distribution of income should remain zero-sum. But my view is that we could always seek “positive-sum” paths for industries such as agriculture or medical services. We should bring forth new markets and services through innovation and provide growth opportunities. The “Yumechikara” type of wheat flour is just one recent example in which innovation has emerged in agriculture. Although we in Japan consume a considerable amount of bread, until now we were unable to produce flour suited for making bread from domestically grown wheat. But recently, we succeeded in making a variety that yields suitable flour, using wheat grown in Hokkaido, at the northern tip of the Japanese archipelago. The direct translation of the “Yumechikara” brand name is “The power of dreams.” This is the same phrase used by Honda Motor in its advertisements worldwide, but this is just a coincidence. This wheat flour will make it possible for us to compete evenly matched with high-quality imported goods. Moreover, by stimulating innovation and seeking markets outside Japan, even agriculture will become an industry that can go forward successfully under this “positive sum” approach, as already happens with our fruit and with wagyu, i.e., Japanese beef.

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A similar statement can be made about medical services. We will sell our knowhow in hospital operation and management and in medical insurance to emerging countries in package form. The government and the private sector will act in cooperation with each other to achieve this. We aim to start this type of endeavour in the immediate future, with an eye on the countries of Southeast Asia. I have visited thirteen countries in the half a year since I assumed office as Prime Minister. Wherever I went, I learned that there is a great deal of demand for Japan’s agricultural products and Japan’s medical treatment services. I discovered this in Moscow and found the same thing to be true in Abu Dhabi as well. All of this is untapped demand. I myself am spearheading the efforts we recently launched to uncover this limitless latent demand. The task assigned to me and to my administration is to implement these things step by step and point by point.

ASEAN and Japan Are Twin Engines ASEAN will play an enormously important role for the Japanese economy within that context. Over the past decade, the value of Japanese exports to ASEAN has jumped 2.3 times, while the value of imports from ASEAN into Japan has risen to 2.5 times the previous amount. A look at trends over the past decade shows us that we have run a balanced trade with each other. If you plot our trade figures on a graph, you will find that they track each other almost exactly, in superb fashion.

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An expanding Japan is in the best interest of ASEAN. A growing ASEAN is in the best interest of Japan. Between Japan and ASEAN, we find a state of affairs that affords us the ability to say such things with certainty. I believe that the effects of the “three arrows” that I have fired will — and, indeed, — must — extend not only to Japan but also to ASEAN. ASEAN will be the twenty-first century’s champion in fostering the vast middle class consumer market. The land, sea, and air infrastructure now being extensively constructed, including through cooperation with Japan, and the connectivity that will intensify as a result, will cause ASEAN’s “economies of scale” to come into full bloom. Asia has an enormous demand for infrastructure to connect east and west, with ASEAN at the very heart. I would like for Japan’s system technology to be used extensively towards improving the Asian region’s infrastructure, which will require an investment of some US$8 trillion by 2020. Singapore boasts an impressive infrastructure industry and the project creativity and management technology of Temasek and Ascendas. If we can bring these together with the system technology of Japan’s corporations, it would become the strongest “tag team” in the world for building “dream cities,” would it not? Let’s do it. Let’s embark on making that a reality. Japan, which has a long history of direct investment, is a “resident” in ASEAN from way back. Take, if you will, the enormous economic area that is about to come into being through the “confluence of the two seas,” stretching

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from the Pacific Ocean to the Indian Ocean. If we were to liken that economic area to an airplane, Japan and ASEAN would be like two engines attached to the right and left wings. There is no question that we will be able to fly high into the sky.

Forty Years of Japan and ASEAN Forty years ago, in many countries of the region, the building of a state was viewed as an endless string of thorny challenges. We in Japan have observed closely as ASEAN countries made progress from that era until the present day, including the changes that have taken place in Myanmar in recent years. Tomorrow in Manila I will offer flowers at the memorial to Jose Rizal, the hero of Philippine modernization. Jose Rizal left us the following words: “Without education and liberty, which are the soil and the sun of man, no reform is possible.” The Asia manifested in ASEAN is the Asia that tirelessly moved forward, taking Rizal’s words as its motto. It was precisely by placing value on education and freedom that you have come so far down this long path. Am I correct here? We Japanese are proud to have always proceeded together with that kind of ASEAN, even during the era of the currency crisis that was so severely trying. I think that you yourselves will testify eloquently to what kind of country Japan was during this time.

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You who have been involved with Japan for such a long time are fully aware of the national character of Japan, which embraces the importance of freedom and peace and, never shooting even a single bullet, has never wavered from democracy or the rule of law. In recent years, Singapore and Japan have incorporated India, a great democratic power, into the grand tapestry of the East Asia Summit, and together have attained the tremendous achieve­ment of bringing about a confluence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. I am delighted that ASEAN and Japan have gone beyond their economic relations to forge a relationship that takes on responsibility for the security of the region, particularly freedom of navigation on the seas. Japan and ASEAN hold in common a highly-developed civil society and an urban culture. We should commend the fact that our relations have progressed to the point where each of us inspires the other in cultural aspects. My administration is currently working out a plan to be announced in concert with the Commemorative Summit at year’s end to enhance the richness of Asian culture even more. I hope you will look forward to this. Now, ASEAN and Japan are unfailingly “in tandem,” not only in economic but also in cultural terms. Ours is a relationship in which we stride forward together. In times both past and present and also into the future, what has guided Asia is not coercion through force. What has linked Asia together is the winds sweeping across the seas. It has been maritime trade, transported by the wind. It has been the blessings of the seas.

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What has been cultivated is a spirit in which we hold the forces of nature in awe. And yet at the same time we are optimistic to the core, believing that the fierce forces of nature will at some point transform into benign gusts of wind. What guides this kind of Asia is not coercive force. Rather, it is the interchange that takes place in a spirit of mutual respect and of learning from one another. It is the interchange that transpires in the spirit of being lively, warm-hearted, and at ease, in which we want to enjoy light-hearted moments with each other and even sing songs together. I am not saying that because Japan is the country that gave the world the magnificent invention of karaoke. And, I am looking forward to the day when I can have amicable discussions with the leaders of China, an important neighbouring country for Japan, in exactly this spirit of being at ease with each other. As we consider where we have been and where we are going in terms of our relations with the Republic of Korea, we have a relationship in which both Japan and the ROK are allies with the United States and form a foundation for regional security. In light of this, we are reconfirming our view that here too we are “in tandem” with the ROK both economically and culturally. Given this, I sincerely hope for us to hold candid discussions at the leaders level, or, at the Foreign Ministers’ level.

The Japan I Wish to Create I hold in mind a certain image of how I would like Japan to be.

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More than anything, I want Japan to be a country in which our young generation, and the generation after that, and the one still after that, are able to nurture a dream for the future and make their way forward, their eyes earnestly fixed straight ahead. I also wish to make Japan a country that offers and promotes peace and stability. Growth and turbulence are inherent in countries and regions, just as they are unavoidable in the case of human beings. In particular, rapid growth sometimes exposes us to risks that we did not face before. There is the possibility that there will come a time when the “public goods” of the sky and the sea, space, and cyberspace, which are by nature to benefit all people equally, come to be seen as the stage for a “zero sum” game. Economic peaks and valleys, changes in political systems, environmental degradation, and the aging of society — these are all great challenges now poised to visit the countries of Asia, which Japan has been working to tackle for some time. These are never-ending issues pertaining to the building of democracy, or the rule of law or the legitimacy of the procedures forming the basis for that democracy. But Japan continues to work to tackle these challenges. In the future, by grappling with these challenges together with the countries of ASEAN, Japan and ASEAN will together be able to carve out their future. Japan must regain an economy that is more powerful. Japan will foster in Asia a dynamic society in which all people, regardless

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of race, gender, differences in age, or disabilities, can pursue their potential. I pledge that by doing so, Japan will carry out its responsi­ bilities to enable ASEAN to attain greater abundance and Asia to become a place where hope shines for the future of its children. ASEAN, Japan, in tandem. Let us stride forward together, aiming at still greater heights!

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III

日本とASEAN  ·  Always  in  tandem  ［３本の矢］ で一層のWin-Win関係へ 日本国総理大臣 安倍晋三

はじめに 副首相閣下、 ウォン・アーロン副理事長、 お集まりの皆様、 「シンガ ポール・レクチャー」 にお招きくださって、有難うございます。東南 アジア研究所の皆さんにも、心より、御礼申し上げます。 本日私は、二重、三重の意味で、 タイムリーな機会をいただい たと思っています。 5日前の日曜、 日本では、参議院議員の半数を改選する選挙 がありました。 日本の経済などについて、本日が、選挙の後では、 ま とまった話をする初めての機会になります。 何よりもまず、 日本には、変革の意思と、 力が戻ってきました。 入れ替わりに、 いまや有名となった、 「回転ドア」政治が、消えて、 な くなりました。 二番目には、3日前、 お隣、 マレーシアを舞台にした交渉で、 日 本は初めて、TPPのプロセスへ入りました。 米国などメンバー国とともに、 日本は、 アジア・太平洋経済の 可能性を、一層広げていきたい。 そう思っています。

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三番目に、ASEANと、 日本のお付き合いは、今年でちょうど 40年を迎えます。 それを記念し、12月には、各国から、首脳を日本 へお招きし、特別サミットを開きます。 ASEANと日本の関係について、未来を展望するにも、本日 は、 たいへん良い機会になるでしょう。 参議院選挙勝利の意味 5日前、参議院選挙で、私たちの党は、国民から、近来稀に見る、強 い負託をもらいました。衆議院、参議院の双方で、連立与党は、過 半数を得ることができました。 ここしばらく、 日本では、弱い経済が、弱い政治を生み、 それ が、経済を、 また弱くする。外交・安保まで、弱体化が及ぶという、 「 負の連鎖」 が続いていました。 打ち続いたデフレーションが、人々の心まで、後ろ向き、内向 きにしてしまいました。 この状況をひっくり返すには、経済を強くすることと、政治を 安定させ、強化する努力を、両方とも一度に、時を移さず、実行する ことが必要でした。 このたびの選挙を経て、少なくとも、政治の安定を、 かちとるこ とができたと思います。

しかし、私たちは、 まだ出発点へ立ったに過ぎません。

昨年の第3四半期、 日本経済は成長するどころか、年率換算 で、 マイナス3.6%縮みました。

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私の経済政策で、今年の第1四半期、 日本経済は、年率にし て4.1%成長しました。 このペースで1年伸び続けると、 イスラエル 1国分の経済が新たに生まれることになります。 日本は、過去数年のデフレ期間に、5000億ドルもの国民所 得を失いました。 これは、地上から、 ノルウェー級の国家がひとつ、 丸ごと消滅したのと同じです。 当然、徴税ベースは小さくなって、国債に頼る以外、財政を維 持できなくなりました。 いかがですか。成長なくして、財政再建なし。成長なくして、社 会保障制度の維持や充実なし。 そして成長なくして、外交や、安全保障の強化は、 あり得ない、 ということが、 お分かりいただけるでしょう。

経済成長は、 すべての前提条件です。

マーガレット・サッチャーに倣って、私はこれを、 「ティナ (TINA)」、”There is no alternative”だと言ってきました。 しかも日本のような、技術、知識集約型の経済は、 イノベーシ ョンの助けを借りないと、生産性を伸ばすことができません。 必要なのは、規制の大胆な改革です。TPP交渉のような、外 部からの触媒です。 国境を越え、経済圏をまたいだ、 ダイナミックな、 「競争」 と 「協 調」 による、新しい付加価値の創造です。 そしてそれには、既得権益に立ち向かう、強い政治力を必要 とします。

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今度の選挙で、私たちはようやく、政治と、経済を、 良い方へ、 良い方へ、回していくきっかけを、 つかんだのだと思っています。 あ とは、実行あるのみ。

本当に、私たちは今、TINAの状態になりました。

シンガポールに追いつき、追い越したい 昨年末に首相としてカムバックして以来、 日本経済を再び成長軌 道に乗せるため、金融政策、財政政策、 そして成長戦略からなる、 いわゆる 「3本の矢」 の政策を進めてきました。

ここから先、私たちは 「3本目の矢」 の射込みにかかります。

秋以降、私たちの政治課題は、一にも二にも、改革の実行で す。 日本経済を本当に強くし、実質所得を増やすことです。 あわせ て、持続可能な道筋に、財政を乗せることです。 モメンタムを失ってはいけません。早速、 この秋には、企業にと って強いインセンティブとなる投資減税を決定します。 臨時国会を招集し、規制改革のため必要な法律、事業の再 編を進めるための法律など、矢継ぎ早の成立を目指します。 これから日本は、 もっとオープンな経済になります。 ビジネス の失敗をむしろ栄養とし、何度でも立ち上がるアントレプレナー を、讃え、助ける、経済になります。 チャレンジする人が、報われる 経済です。 基礎科学から、医療、農業まで、 日本がもつテクノロジーを、 も っと伸ばすため、 イノベーションを促す経済になります。 「オープン」、 「チャレンジ」、 「イノベーション」。常に、私たち の改革を導くキーコンセプトです。

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もはや岩盤のように固まった規制を打ち破るには、強力なド リルと、強い刃(は)が必要です。 自分はその、 「ドリルの刃」 になるん だと、私は先に、 ロンドンで言いました。 もう一度、 同じことを言います。電力や農業、医療分野で規制 の改革を進め、新たなサービス、新しい産業を興し、 日本経済の活 力を、 そこから引き出します。 規制改革のショーケースとなる特区も、総理大臣である私自 身が進み具合を監督する 「国家戦略特区」 として、強い政治力を 用いて、進めます。 この夏、 日本の観光地は、 アジアからやってくるお客さんで賑 わいます。訪問者の数は、 これまでにない伸びを示すでしょう。海 外の方とともに、 日本の観光地を楽しめる、 そんなインフラも整えて いきます。 世界一、 ビジネス・フレンドリーな国にしたいと、私たちは言い 続けています。 この点、 シンガポールに追いつき、 できれば追い越 したい。真剣に、 そう思っています。

お集まりの皆さん、皆さんの投資を、 日本は歓迎します。

Invest in Japan、 ダブル・アイ・ジェイ(IIJ)と、 申し上げます。 皆さんも、復唱してください。 ダブル・アイ・ジェイです。 The Power of Dreams 農業や、医療をめぐる既得権益と戦って、安倍晋三は、結局負ける だろう。 そう言う人がいます。 こんな言い方に、私はすでに、現状を固定したうえで、利益の 配分はゼロ・サムになると考えたがる、誤りがあると思います。

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私の発想は、常に、 プラス・サムです。新しい市場やサービス を、 イノベーションによってつくり出し、成長機会を提供すればい いのです。 「ゆめちから」 という小麦粉などは、農業にイノベーションが 起きた最近の例です。 日本人はたくさんのパンを食べるのに、国内産小麦から、 パン に向いた満足な小麦粉は、今までできませんでした。 それが、最近、列島北端の北海道で取れる小麦に、 ふさわし い小麦粉をつくれる品種ができました。 小 麦 粉 のブ ランド 名 、 「 ゆ め ち か ら 」を 直 訳 すると 、 The power of dreamsとなります。 自動車のホンダが、 ワールドワ イドで宣伝に使うフレーズと同じになりますが、 これは、偶然の一 致です。 この小麦粉なら、品質の高い輸入品とも互角の競争ができる でしょう。 さらに、果物や、和牛のように、 イノベーションを促し、 日本の 外に市場を求めていけば、農業だって、 プラス・サムの発想で、 やっ ていける産業になるはずです。 似たことは、医療にも当てはまります。病院の運営、医療保険 のノウハウを、組み合わせた形で新興国に売る。 そのため、政府と 民間が協力しあう。 こういうやり方を、東南アジアの国々を念頭に、 早速始めようとしています。 総理就任以来半年で、13の国々を回った私は、行く先々で、 日本の農産品、 日本の医療サービスに、多くの需要があることを学

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びました。 モスクワで、 そのことを知りました。 アブダビでも、同じこ とに気づきました。 みな、埋もれた需要です。限りのない潜在需要を掘り起こす 努力を、私が先頭に立って始めたところです。 これらのことを、 ひとつひとつ、着実に実施していくことが、私 と、私の政権に課された課題です。 ASEANと日本はツイン・エンジン そこで、日本 経 済にとって、 とても大 事な役 割を果たすのが 、 ASEANです。 過去10年、 日本からASEANへの輸出額は2.3倍。ASEANか ら日本が輸入した額は、2.5倍になりました。 貿易収支は、10年のトレンドで見て、ずっと均衡していて、 グ ラフに描くと、 ぴったり寄り添い、見事なものです。 伸びる日本は、ASEANの利益。成長するASEANは、 日本の 利益。確信をもってそう言える実態が、 日本とASEANの間にあり ます。 私が射込む 「3本の矢」 の効果は、 日本だけでなくASEANに も及ぶ、 いや、及ばせなければならない。 そう思っています。 ASEANは、21世紀を代表するミドルクラス市場になります。 日本も協力し、精力的につくっている陸、海、空のインフラと、 それ によって強まる連結性は、ASEANがもつ、 「規模の経済」 を、全面 開花させるでしょう。

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アジアには、ASEANを真ん中にして、東西をつなぐ厖大なイ ンフラ需要があります。2020年までに8兆ドルの投資を必要とする アジア地域のインフラ整備に向けて、 日本のシステム技術を大い に活用していただきたい。 シンガポールが誇るインフラ産業、 テマセック、 アセンダスが 持つプロジェクト創造力そしてマネジメント技術。 これと日本企業 のシステム技術が組み合わされば、 「 夢の都市」 をつくる、世界最 強のタッグになりませんか。 やりましょうよ。 そして長い直接投資の歴史をもつ日本は、 もともと、 ASEANの 「住人」です。太平洋から、インド洋にまたがる、 「 2つの海の交わ り」 に生まれようとしている一大経済圏を、 もし飛行機にたとえるな らば、 日本とASEANは、左右両翼についた、2つのエンジンみたい なもの。

高く、飛んでいくことができるに違いありません。

日本とASEANの40年 40年前、 それは、地域の少なくない国において、国家の建設が、果 てしのない難題に見えた頃。 私たち日本人は、 そんな当時から今日まで、近年のミャンマー に生じた変化を含め、ASEAN諸国が進歩を遂げるさまを、 つぶさ に見てきました。 明日私はマニラで、 フィリピン近代化の英雄、 ホセ・リサール の記念碑に花を献げます。

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ホセ・リサールは、 こんな言葉を遺しています。

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「人の苗床となり、太陽となるのは、教育であり、 自由である。 それなしには、 いかなる改革も成就しない」。 ASEANが示したアジアとは、 リサールの言葉をモットーに、 たゆまず歩んだアジアです。教育と、 自由を重んじたからこそ、皆さ んは、 はるかな道をここまできたのです。違いますか? 私たち日本人は、 そんな、ASEANと、苦しかった通貨危機の 時期を含め、 いつも一緒に進んできたのを誇りに思います。 皆さんはまた、 この間の日本がどんな国だったか、雄弁に証 言してくださるでしょう。 自由と、平和の大切さを奉じて、銃弾の一発とて撃たず、民主 主義や、法の支配を、揺るがせにしなかった日本、 そんな日本の国 柄を、長い付き合いの皆さんは、 よくご存知です。 近年に至ると、 シンガポールと日本は、民主主義の大国インド を、東アジア・サミットという大きなタペストリーに織り込み、太平 洋と、 インド洋に、結合をもたらした、偉大な達成をともにしていま す。 ASEANと日本が、経済関係を超え、地域の安全保障、 とりわ け、航海の自由に責任をもつ間柄となったことを、私は、喜びたい と思います。 高度に発達した市民社会と、都市文化を共有する日本と ASEANが、文化面で、互いに触発し合う関係に至ったことを、慶 賀すべきだと思います。 年末の、特別サミットに合わせ、 アジアの文化を一層豊かに するプランを、 いま私の政権は練っています。 ご期待ください。

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いまや、ASEANと日本は、経済だけでなく、文化でも、常に 「 in tandem」。共に歩いて行く仲です。 アジアを導くものは、昔も、今も、 これからも、力による威圧で はありません。 アジアをつないだものとは、海を渡る風でした。風が運んだ、 海の交易でした。海の、恵みでした。 培われたのは、 自然の猛威を畏れる気風です。半面、猛々しい 自然は、 それでもいつか、優しい一陣の風に変わると信じる、根っ からの楽天主義です。 そんなアジアを導くものとは、威圧する力などではなく、互い に敬い、学び合い、 もっと言えば笑い合って、一緒に歌いたくなるよ うな、快活で、慈愛に満ち、寛(くつろ)いだ精神の交流でしょう。 これは日本が、 あの偉大な発明、 「カラオケ」 を生んだ国だか ら、 そんなことを言うのではありません。 そして、 まさしくこの寛いだ精神のもと、私は、 日本にとって重 要な隣国である中国の首脳と、親しく話し合える日を期待していま す。 韓国については、互いの来し方行く末に思いを致すにつけ、 日本とは、共に米国の同盟国でありますし、地域安保の土台をな す間柄、経済でも文化でも、 やはり in tandem だという思いを新 たにしています。 こうして、首脳同士、 あるいは外相同士、胸襟を開いて、話し 合えればいいと念じています。

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こんな日本を作りたい 私には、 日本が、 こんなふうになったらいいという、 ひとつのイメー ジがあります。 なにより、 日本の若い世代、 その次、 またその次の世代が、未 来に夢を抱き、 ひたすら前を向いて、進んで行くことができる国で あってほしい。 そして日本を、平和と安定を提供し、増進する国であるように したい。 そう、願っています。 成長と、動揺は、人間の場合にそうであるように、国や、地域 についても、 つきものです。 とくに、急に成長することは、従来なかったリスクを、時に顕在 化させます。 本来、 すべての人々を隔てなく潤すはずの、空や海、宇宙、 そ してサイバースペースといった公共財は、 ともすると、ゼロサム・ゲ ームの舞台に見える、 そんな時期があるでしょう。 経済の浮き沈み、政治体制の変化、環境の劣化や、社会の高 齢化。 日本は、 それら、 いままさにアジアの国々を見舞いつつある難 問に、挑戦し続けてきました。 民主主義にしろ、 その、根幹をなす、手続きの正当性や、法の 支配にしろ、永遠の課題です。 しかし日本は、挑戦し続けます。 そしてこれからは、ASEANの国々とともに挑戦することによっ て、 日本とASEANは、一緒に未来を切り拓いていくことができま す。

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日本は、 より強い経済を手に入れ、 アジアを人種や性別、年 齢の違い、障害の有る無しにかかわりなく、 すべての人が可能性 を追求できるダイナミックな社会とし、我々はより素晴らしい場所 に変えていきたいと考えています。 そうすることで、ASEANがより豊かになり、 アジアが、子ども たちの将来に希望輝く場となるよう、 日本は、 自らの責任を果たし ていくことをお約束します。

ASEAN, Japan, in tandem.



さらなる高みに向けて、 ともに歩んでいきましょう!!

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SHINZO ABE

Shinzo Abe became the Prime Minister of Japan in December 2012, after winning a landslide victory in the general election. He campaigned to revive Japan: to restore a strong economy; to accelerate reconstruction from devastation of earthquake and tsunami; to defend the territory and engage in proactive diplomacy; and to restore education. Upon assuming his post, Prime Minister Abe immediately started to implement concrete policies to put his vision into reality. His economic policy, among others, attracted world’s attention. His “three arrows” came to be dubbed as “Abenomics”. Japanese economy has been suffering from deflation for more than 15 years. Conventional remedies have been tried time and again, without avail. Therefore, Prime Minister Abe took a whole new approach. He believes that drastic policy measures on a different dimension are necessary to pull the Japanese economy out of entrenched deflation. He has fired the “three arrows” one after another. The “first arrow” is a bold monetary policy never seen before in Japan. The “second arrow” is a largest scale supplementary budget. The “third arrow” is a growth strategy announced recently to push structural reform and liberalize economy. The result of his new approach has been dramatic. In the third quarter (July–September) last year, the Japanese GDP shrank at an annualized rate of minus 3.6 percent. However, with his

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new policy, the Japanese GDP grew to an annualized rate of plus 4.1 percent in the first quarter (January–March) this year. On 21st July 2013, the Upper House election was held in Japan. Based on the results, Prime Minister Abe is all the more committed to advancing his “third arrow,” i.e. growth strategy and promote foreign direct investment into Japan. The Prime Minister has already named the upcoming autumn session of the Parliament as an extraordinary session to implement his growth strategy.

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THE SINGAPORE LECTURE SERIES

Inaugural Singapore Lecture 14 October 1980 The Invisible Hand in Economics and Politics by MILTON FRIEDMAN 2nd Singapore Lecture 30 October 1981 American Foreign Policy: A Global View by HENRY KISSINGER 3rd Singapore Lecture 2 December 1982 Peace and East-West Relations by GISCARD D’ESTAING 4th Singapore Lecture 10 November 1983 The Soviet Union: Challenges and Responses as Seen from the European Point of View by HELMUT SCHMIDT 5th Singapore Lecture 8 November 1984 The Western Alliance: Its Future and Its Implications for Asia by JOSEPH M.A.H. LUNS 6th Singapore Lecture 5 December 1985 Deficits, Debts, and Demographics: Three Fundamentals Affecting Our Long-Term Economic Future by PETER G. PETERSON

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34 7th Singapore Lecture 25 November 1986 Trends in the International Financial System by RAYMOND BARRE 8th Singapore Lecture 27 November 1987 The Challenge of Change in the Asia-Pacific Region by BOB HAWKE 9th Singapore Lecture 14 December 1988 Regionalism, Globalism and Spheres of Influence: ASEAN and the Challenge of Change into the 21st Century by MAHATHIR BIN MOHAMAD 10th Singapore Lecture 15 October 1989 Trade Outlook: Globalization or Regionalization by BRIAN MULRONEY 11th Singapore Lecture 3 April 1991 International Economic Developments by R.F.M. LUBBERS 12th Singapore Lecture 4 January 1992 U.S. Policy in the Asia-Pacific Region: Meeting the Challenges of the Post Cold-War Era by GEORGE BUSH

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35 13th Singapore Lecture 8 September 1994 India and the Asia-Pacific: Forging a New Relationship by P.V. NARASIMHA RAO 14th Singapore Lecture 17 January 1996 Australia, Asia and the New Regionalism by PAUL KEATING 15th Singapore Lecture 14 January 1997 Reforms for the New Era of Japan and ASEAN: For a Broader and Deeper Partnership by RYUTARO HASHIMOTO 16th Singapore Lecture 6 March 1997 South and Southern Africa into the Next Century by NELSON R. MANDELA 17th Singapore Lecture 30 November 1999 China and Asia in the New Century by ZHU RONGJI 18th Singapore Lecture 14 February 2000 Global Values: The United Nations and the Rule of Law in the 21st Century by Kofi A. Annan

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36 19th Singapore Lecture 27 November 2000 Peace on the Korean Peninsula and East Asia by KIM DAE-JUNG 20th Singapore Lecture 14 January 2002 Japan and ASEAN in East Asia: A Sincere and Open Partnership by JUNICHIRO KOIZUMI 21st Singapore Lecture 9 April 2002 India’s Perspectives on ASEAN and the Asia-Pacific Region by ATAL BIHARI VAJPAYEE 22nd Singapore Lecture 6 July 2002 EU-Asia: Sharing Diversity in an Inter-regional Partnership by ROMANO PRODI 23rd Singapore Lecture 13 May 2003 Investments into the Future: State and Economy at the Beginning of the 21st Century by GERHARD SCHRÖDER 24th Singapore Lecture 30 April 2004 Global Challenges in the 21st Century: A View from Chile by Ricardo Lagos 25th Singapore Lecture 16 February 2005 Indonesia: The Challenge of Change by Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono

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37 26th Singapore Lecture 21 April 2005 Africa’s Season of Hope: The Dawn of a New Africa-Asia Partnership by thabo mvuyelwa mbeki 27th Singapore Lecture 1 February 2006 Evolution of Enlightened Societies by A.P.J. ABDUL KALAM 28th Singapore Lecture 11 April 2006 Opportunities and Challenges for Asian-Arabian Ties by suLtan bin abdul aziz al-sAud 29th Singapore Lecture 12 August 2008 Building on ASEAN’s Success: Towards an Asia-Pacific Community by kevin rudd 30th Singapore Lecture 23 October 2009 Towards New Global Partnerships: Economics, Governance, Values by JAN PETER BALKENENDE 31st Singapore Lecture 2 June 2011 by ANGELA MERKEL 32nd Singapore Lecture 13 March 2012 The Importance of Governance for Sustainable Development by Helen Clark 33rd Singapore Lecture 26 July 2013 by SHINZO ABE

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