India’s nuclear bomb 9780520217720, 0520217721

Table of contents :
1. Developing the Technological Base for the Nuclear Option 1948-1963 --
2. The First Compromise Shift toward a "Peaceful Nuclear Explosive" 1964 --
3. The Search for Help Abroad and the Emergence of Nonproliferation December 1964-August 1965 --
4. War and Leadership Transitions at Home August 1965-May 1966 --
5. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and Secretly Renewed Work on a Nuclear Explosive 1966-1968 --
6. Political Tumult and Inattention to the Nuclear Program 1969-1971 --
7. India Explodes a "Peaceful" Nuclear Device 1971-1974 --
8. The Nuclear Program Stalls 1975-1980 --
9. More Robust Nuclear Policy Is Considered 1980-1984 --
10. Nuclear Capabilities Grow and Policy Ambivalence Remains November 1984-December 1987 --
11. The Nuclear Threat Grows Amid Political Uncertainty 1988-1990 --
12. American Nonproliferation Initiatives Flounder 1991-1994 --
13. India Verges on Nuclear Tests 1995 May 1996 --
14. India Rejects the CTBT June 1996-December 1997 --
15. The Bombs That Roared 1998 --
Conclusion: Exploded Illusions of the Nuclear Age --
App. India's Nuclear Infrastructure.

Citation preview

India's Nuclear Bomb

A

•

•

•

B O O K

The Philip E. Lilienthal imprint honors special books in commemoration of a man whose work at the University of California Press from 1 954 to 1 9 7 9 was marked by dedication to young authors and to high standards in the field of Asian Studies. Friends, family, authors, and foundations have together endowed the Lilienthal Fund, which enables the Press to publish under this imprint selected books in a way that reflects the taste and judgment of a great and beloved editor.

India's Nuclear Bomb The Impact on Global Proliferation

•

•••

George Ferkovich

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA PRESS

Berkeley

Los Angeles

London

The publisher gratefully acknowledges the generous contribution to this book provided by the Philip E. Lilienthal Asian Studies Endowment, which is supported by a major gift from Sally Lilienthal.

University of California Press Berkeley and Los Angeles, California

University of California Press, Ltd. London, England

© 1999 by The Regents of the University of California

Photographs courtesy of the Hindu, the Indian Express, and the National Institute of Advanced Studies. Map and table courtesy of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Perkovich, George, 1 95 8India's nuclear bomb: the impact on global proliferation I George Perkovich. p. cm. "Philip E. Lilienthal Asian studies imprint." Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0- 5 20-2 1 772- 1 (alk. paper) 1 . Nuclear weapons-India. 2. India-Military policy. 3 . World politics- 1 9 89- I. Title. UA840.P47 2000 355 .02' 1 7' 0954---dc2 1 99 - 37464 CIP

Manufactured in the United States of America 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 or oo 10

9 8 7 6 5 4 3

The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of ANSI/NISO Z39.48-r992 (R 1997) (Permanence ef Paper)

2

To

my mothe?; Florine) and the memory ef my father; Judge George R. PerkovichJr.) who made this work possible) and to my wife) Bobbi Snow) and my son) Jake) who made it satiifying.

BLANK PAGE

CONTENTS

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xz

Introduction l

ONE

Developing the Technological Base for the Nuclear Option 1 94 8 -1 9 6 3

13 TWO

The First Compromise Shift toward a "Peaceful Nuclear Explosive" 1 9 64

60 THREE

The Search for Help Abroad and the Emergence of Nonproliferation DECEMBER 1 9 6 4-AUGUST 1 9 6 5

86 FOUR

War and Leadership Transitions at Home AUGUST 1 9 6 5-MAY 1 9 6 6

106 FI VE

The Nuclear Non-Proli feration Treaty and Secretly Renewed Work on a Nuclear Explosive 1 9 6 6 -1 9 6 8

125

SIX

Political Tumult and Inattention to the Nuclear Program I 9 6 9-I 9 7 I

146 SEVEN

India Explodes a "Peaceful" Nuclear Device I 9 7 I -I 9 74

161 EIGHT

The Nuclear Program Stalls 1 9 75-I 9 8 0

190 NI NE

More Robust Nuclear Policy Is Considered I 9 8 0-1 9 8 4

226 TEN

Nuclear Capabilities Grow and Policy Ambivalence Remains NOVEMBER 1 9 8 4-DECEMBER 1 9 8 7

261 ELEVEN

The Nuclear Threat Grows Amid Political Uncertainty 1 9 8 8 -1 9 9 0

29 3 TWELVE

American Nonproliferation Initiatives Flounder 1 99 1-1994

318 THIRTEEN

India Verges on Nuclear Tests I 9 95-MAY I 9 9 6

3 53 FOURTEEN

India Rejects the C TB T JUNE 1 9 9 6 -DECEMBER 1 9 9 7

378

FIFTEEN

The Bombs That Roared 1 99 8 4°4

Conclusion: Exploded Illusions of the Nuclear Age 444 APPENDIX

India's Nuclear Infrastructure 469 NOTES

473 INDEX

583

BLANK PAGE

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

As with any large undertaking, this book and I have benefited enormously from the assistance, grace, insight, and goodwill of many people. Often authors thank their families last but not least, but my debt to my family is so enormous I must thank them first and foremost. My wife, Bobbi Snow, and my son, Jake, did more than bear my obsession with this project and the several years of distracted week­ ends and evenings-they actually encouraged me to keep going. Whatever guilt I feel over the time spent away from them is self-imposed; their generosity of spirit has been remarkable. I only hope the result warrants their gift. This project would not have happened without the active encouragement, sup­ port, and indulgence of my employers at the W AltonJones Foundation. Writing books is not part of the job description, yet my boss and friend, Dr. Pete Myers, never once wavered in his support of me and this project, and I will always be in­ debted to him for this. Similarly, the board of the foundation has created a singu­ lar environment conducive to openness and creativity. Jamie Bennett, Jamie Cameron, Barney Curry, Pat Edgerton, Brad Edgerton, Bill Edgerton, Diane Edgerton Miller, Scott McVay, and all of their families have provided intellectual, spiritual, and material sustenance to my family and me in this project and every­ thing else. All of my other colleagues at the foundation have helped more than they know, too, most particularly Kay Mason, Lisa Stewart, Bill Hoehn, Kristen Svokko, and in the realm of computers, Brian Wheeler andJudith Carlin. Given the peculiarities of the Indian system and the absence of available writ­ ten records, this book depends heavily on interviews with former and current high-ranking officials and others familiar with the ins and outs of Indian policy­ making. Many interviewees are identified in the text and notes, and I thank them again here for their generosity and insights. Many others, however, are not identi­ fied. Nothing in this book compromises the national security of India, yet it is con­ ceivable that sources of some of the information contained here could suffer reprisals if their identities were known. If this history provides useful information to the Indian people, then much of the debt will be owed to the dozens of Indian interviewees who informed it. My gratitude to all of them, named and unnamed.

xi

xzi

ACKNOW L E D GMENTS

So, too, thanks to current and former American officials who shared their experi­ ences and perspectives with me. They have worked with great care and dedica­ tion, often thanklessly, on difficult problems in a region whose importance is often underappreciated. Beyond the specific issues addressed in interviews, this project and I have ben­ efited greatly from weeks of stimulating, sometimes mutually exasperating, con­ versations in India. Among those interlocutors I can list here are V S. Arunacha­ lam, Dipankar Banerjee, Kanti Bajpai, Praful Bidwai, P. R. Chari, Brahma Chellaney, Giri Deshingkar, Eric Gonsalves, Inder Malhotra, Amitabh Mattoo, Raja Mohan, K. C. Pant, Raja Ramanna, Varun Sahi, Arun Singh, Jasjit Singh, Jaswant Singh, Rakesh Sood, K. Subrahmanyam, and the late K. Sundarji. None of these fine people bear responsibility for any failings in this book. I also owe spe­ cial thanks to Chris Smith for bringing me to India the first time, beginning a jour­ ney of infatuation, awe, respect, bewilderment, frustration, and, ultimately, friend­ ships. Chapters of this book also benefited enormously from critical review by many readers, nearly a dozen of whom in India and the United States are better left un­ named to spare them for any blame for the faults I have committed. Others can be thanked, a few for reading almost all of the chapters in various stages-Stephen P. Cohen, Marvin Miller, Joe and Frank Perkovich, and, with an emphasis on the theoretical sections, Scott Sagan. Many others read large chunks or particular chapters with keen critical eyes: David Albright, Harry Barnes, Joe Bradarich, Avner Cohen, Zachary Davis, Sumit Ganguly, Robert Goheen, Dick Graham, Thomas W Graham, Rodney Jones, Alan Lightman, Robert Oakley, Mitchell Reiss, Ashley Tellis, and Frank Wisner. This project began at the University of Virginia, where I was guided gently and insightfully by Melvyn Leffier, David Newsom, Michael Smith, and Kenneth Thompson. Instead of a painful ordeal, they facilitated a pleasant and enlighten­ ing experience. Similarly, my friend and frequent adviser Frank von Hippe! en­ couraged me through this and other experiences with good humor. The National Security Archive in Washington, D.C . , provided plentiful raw material for this book, in the form of its extensive and well-organized collection of declassified U. S. government documents. Bill Burr and Joyce Battle there were enormously helpful. Leonard S. Spector, then at the Carnegie Endowment for In­ ternational Peace, generously gave access to his extensive files. Michael Krepon and his associates at the Henry L. Stimson Center-Khurshid Khoja and Michael Newbill, particularly-provided encouragement, news clippings, and other friendly help. Special thanks are also due to Malini Parthasarathy, executive editor of the Hindu, and Shekhar Gupta and A. Hariharan of the Indian Express for pro­ viding the photographs used here. Having heard publishing horror stories from other writers, I owe special grat­ itude to Jim Clark of the University of California Press for his alacrity, warm en­ couragement, and dedication to this project. He and his assistant Katherine Bell

AC KNOWL E D G M E N T S

xm

and their colleagues are special. Impressions staff and their editor, Tony Calli­ han, provided excellent and friendly production coordination and copyediting. Thank you. Lastly, for additional personal and intellectual sustenance, thanks to Steve Wag­ ner (from the beginning), Karl and Jenny Ackerman, the Grahams, Kay and Davis Parker, the New Year's Eve group, the basketball guys at Olin's, Ethan :Miller, Paul Perkovich, Katie Bradarich, all the Snow-Perkovich-Bradarich nieces and nephews, and the mother of the brood, Florine Perkovich.

500 Miles

0 T ermmal Ba/11stics Research Laboratory. Key DRDO site (or work on nudear weapon 1mplos1on

CHINA

systems. Narora I and 2 and Kal 384-85, 43I Suri, N.C., 416 Swamy, Subramaniam, 203, 254 Swatantra Party, 73-74, 77, 88, I32, I47-48, 169 Sweden, IOI, Io4, 133, I87 Symington Amendment. See U.S. Congress

Tahliani, Admiral, 273-74 Taiwan, 455, 462 Talbott, Strobe, 342 -45, 390, 435-36

596

INDEX

Tarapur. See reactors, nuclear Tashkent Declaration, 1 ro Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (TIFR), 16--17, 29 Tata Trust, Sir Dorab, 1 6 Taylor, Ted, 428 Teller, Edward, 43 1 Tellis, Ashley; 453 Tenet, George, 418 Terminal Ballistics Research Laboratory; 156, 172, 242 Thant, U., ro9 Thapar, Ramesh, 72-73 thermonuclear weapon (hydrogen bomb): and Chidambaram, 398; and China, 1 18; cost of, So; early work on, 26!, 271 -72, 294, 340; mastery of, 2; need for, 385, 431 - 32, 432 -33; test of, 404, 416, 425- 27; U.S. intelligence on, 349 Thompson, Llewellyn E., 91-93 thorium, 18, 22, 26, 93 Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Co-operation, 1 63 tritium, 2, 242, 272, 427-29 Trivedi, UM., 78-79 Trivedi, V.C.: background of, w4; and Chinese test, 67; and NPT negotiations, r 14 -15, 134, 139, 143; on PNEs, 120, 127, 138; and Pugwash, 62 Trudeau, Pierre, 159 Tully; Mark, 257

Ukraine, 455, 460-62 United Front, 375-76, 394, 402, 405 United Kingdom: aid to India, 323; arms to India, 55; and CTBT, 382; and disarma­ ment, 39, 456, 463; effect on India, 465; and Indian Atomic Energy Act, 18-20; and Indian space program, 154, 245; nuclear weapons costs, 316; promotion of nuclear power, 27, 34, 430; resistance to, 144 United Nations: and atomic energy; 21, 25- 26; Conference on Peaceful Nuclear E;xplo­ sives, 35; Disarmament Commission, ro3; General Assembly Resolution 2028, ro4-5, 134; and Indo-Pak war (1965), ro9; and NPT, 139; Security Council

vote, 386-87; and security guarantees, 88, Il9 United States: and Afghanistan, 221 - 22; arms to Pakistan, 22-25, 227; assistance to India, 30, 62, 131, 137, 2w; assistance to Pakistan, 48 -49, 391 ; and Atoms for Peace, 25; and Baruch Plan, 2 1 ; and Bhabha, 61; and China, 1 6 1 - 63, 217, 350, 396-97; constraints on India, 83-84; costs of nuclear weapons, 79; and crisis of 1 990, 307-u; and CTBT negotiations, 379; and disarmament, 39, 456, 463; and R. Gandhi, 26!; and heavy water, 62, 249-50, 285-86; and Indian Atomic Energy Act, 1 8 - 20; and Indian attack on Kahuta, 258; and Indian debate (1964), 77; and Indian for­ eign policy, 41, 317, 321 -22; and Indian missile program, 300; and Indian nuclear tests, 193, 368, 374, 417-19; and Indian space program, 154, 245, 327-28, 335, 337; and Inda-Pak war (1965), ro9-n; intelligence assessments by, 5, 44, 57-58, 71, 155, 217, 340, 374, 397; and Kashmir, 42; nonproliferation debate in, 30, 198-99; nonproliferation initiatives (199 1 -1994), 318, 325, 329, 335 -36; and non-weapon grade pluto­ nium, 429; and North Korea, 461 - 62; and NPT negotiations, 99-ro3, w5, 1 27, 135 -39; nuclear doctrine of, 432; nuclear sharing proposal, 9 1 - 92, roo, u5-16; and peaceful nuclear explosives, 35, 159; and PNE (1974), 1 n, 183-85, 190-91; policy 8, 49-58, 232 - 33, 386; pressure on India, 2, 368-70, 465; pro­ motion of nuclear power, 32, 34, 149; resistance to, 144, 170, 377, 392-93; sanctions, 205, 435- 37; and security guarantees, 86-88, ro2, I I9; and Sino­ Indian war, 44 -46; and South Korea, 462; strategic dialogue with India, 402; and Taiwan, 462; technology coopera­ tion with India, 266- 69; threat to China, 72; Trivedi criticism of, n4 -15 United States Congress: criticism of India, 54; Joint Committee on Atomic Energy, 30; and NNPA, 206-9, 225; and nonprolifer­ ation, 184, 190, 193, 302; and nuclear

INDEX tests, 420-21; Symington Amendment, 198, 217, 221; and Tarapur, 57, 2 1 2 United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 202, 218 Unna, Warren, 120 unproliferation, 7, 455 -56 uranium-233, 26-28 uranium, highly enriched, 298 uranium enrichment, 1 86, 196. See also Kahuta URENCO, 196

Vaidya, A.S., 273-74 Vajpayee, Atal Behari: and 1998 election, 405; and BJP, 238; and China, 216-17, 415; as foreign minister, 200, 204, 2w; on Kash­ mir, 407; and National Security Council, 411; and nonproliferation, 215, 332, 366; on nuclear policy, 408-9, 435; and nuclear tests, 374-75, 422- 24, 434, 442; on nuclear weapons, 2, 291, 360, 420, 449; and the United States, 218, 412-13 Vanaik, Achin, 381 Vance, Cyrus, 210 Vellodi, N., 150-51 Venkataraman, R., 237, 242 -43, 246-47, 253-54, 314, 328 Venkatesan, Sambasiva, 172 Venkateswaran, A.P., 280, 457 Vira, Dharma, 113

Vitro International, 28, 64 Vohra, A.M., 177

Wallace, Terry, 426 Waltz, Kenneth, 274, 314-16, 454 Webster, William, 301 Weinberger, Caspar, 269 Weiner, Tim, 368 Weiss, Leonard, 207 Wiesner,Jerome, 93-97 Wilson, Harold, 87 Wisner, Frank, 342, 368 Wohlstetter, Roberta, 268 Wolpert, Stanley, 40 Woodward, Bob, 279 Woolsey,James, 335 Wulf, Norman, 345

Yadav, Mulayam Singh, 376, 389, 398 -401 yield (explosive) of tests, 1 8 1 - 83, 425 -27

Zangger committee, 1 87, 191 Zia, ul-Haq: coup of, 204; death of, 297; and India, 231, 239, 251 , 276; and nuclear weapons, 222, 281; and the United States, 237, 257-58, 264 Zumwalt, Elmo Jr., 1 64

597

BLANK PAGE

Compositor: Text: Display: Printer and Binder:

Impressions Book andJournal Services, Inc. roh 2 Baskerville Baskerville Edwards Brothers