Handbook of US Consumer Economics 9780128135242, 0128135247

Table of contents :
Front Cover
Handbook of US Consumer Economics
Handbook of US Consumer Economics
Copyright
Contents
Contributors
Preface
1 - Empirical analysis of the US consumer: fact, fiction, and the future
1. Big(ger) data: new sources and new questions
2. Consumer spending and the aggregate economy
3. Household finance
4. Responding to shocks
5. Spending over the life cycle
6. Measurement issues
7. International perspectives
8. Concluding thoughts
References
2 - Handbook of the consumer chapter: trends in household debt and credit
1. Overview
2. Data
3. Decomposing the borrowing cycle
4. Trends in borrower characteristics
5. Trends in other debt
6. Perspectives on current household debt
6.1 Change in debt composition
6.2 Implications of the change in debt composition
6.3 Delinquencies
7. Conclusion
References
3 - Trends in household portfolio composition∗
1. Introduction
2. Survey of consumer finances data and comparison to aggregates
2.1 Wealth measurement: comparing the Survey of Consumer Finances to macroaggregates
2.2 The Survey of Consumer Finances and other household finance research
3. Composition of average household portfolios
4. Household portfolios across the asset distribution
4.1 Across time
5. Asset concentration
6. Cohorts
6.1 Interpreting the cohort figures
6.2 Median household assets
6.3 Ownership of risky assets: business, equity, and housing
6.4 Business ownership
6.5 Equity ownership
6.6 Home-ownership
6.7 Mortgage holding
6.7.1 The risky asset share
6.8 Business share
6.9 Equity share
6.10 Housing share
6.11 Combined risk asset share
7. Financial vulnerability, shocks, and the health of the household balance sheet
7.1 Risk from asset price shocks
7.2 Financial vulnerability: income and asset price shocks18
7.3 Trends in vulnerability across time
8. Conclusion
References
4 - Household debt and recession in Brazil∗
1. Introduction
2. Aggregate view
3. Novel data set on Brazilian household debt
4. Characteristics of the household debt boom
4.1 Composition of household debt
4.2 Government-controlled banks and a tale of two booms
4.3 Credit growth across the income distribution
5. Potential causes of the household debt boom
5.1 Macroeconomic context
5.2 Institutional reforms and domestic programs
5.3 International factors
6. Concluding remarks
References
5 - Rationality in the consumer credit market: choosing between alternative and mainstream credit∗
1. Introduction
2. Pawn credit as an alternative to regular bank credit
3. Background: how pawnbroking works
4. Data and summary statistics
4.1 Data
4.2 Summary statistics
5. Main results
5.1 Empirical implementation
5.2 Access to mainstream credit for all swedes versus alternative credit users
5.2.1 Awareness about creditworthiness and immigrant status
6. Conclusion
References
6 - How do consumers respond to real income shocks?
1. Introduction
2. JPMCI research on consumer spending responses to income and price changes
2.1 Healthcare spending and tax refunds
2.2 Consumer spending around job loss and the expiration of unemployment insurance benefits
2.3 Consumer spending and the decline of gas prices between 2014 and 2015
2.4 Consumption, investment, and mortgage resets
2.5 Income fluctuations around mortgage defaults
3. Conclusion
Appendix
References
7 - Spending to and through retirement
1. Introduction
2. Description of data sources
2.1 CE Survey
2.2 HRS/CAMS Survey
2.3 Chase data
3. Literature review
3.1 The phased retirement hypothesis
3.2 Quantitative evidence of spending reductions in retirement
3.3 The retirement transition period
4. The life cycle of spending
4.1 Data Refinement
4.2 The J.P. Morgan expenditure model
4.3 Generational view
4.4 Investable wealth levels
4.5 Accounting for long-term care costs
4.6 Implications of the life cycle of spending for plan providers and employers
4.7 Implications of the life cycle of spending for firms that provide financial planning
5 Shifting into retirement
5.1 The retirement transition period data filter
5.2 Defining “retirement”
5.3 At what age do people retire?
5.4 Average spending the year before versus the year after retirement
5.5 Average spending the year before versus the year after retirement: households with at least $500,000 in investable wealth
5.6 Beyond averages: distribution of changes in spending the year before versus the year after retirement
5.7 Evidence of a retirement spending surge
5.8 Spending volatility
5.9 Spending volatility beyond the transition phase
6. Implications
6.1 Key takeaways for employers
6.2 Ideas for firms that develop retirement plans for individuals
7. Suggestions for further research
8. Closing
References
8 - Are millennials different?∗
1. Introduction
2. Definitions of generations and a review of research on age, generations, and economic decisions
3. A comparison of demographics by generation
4. Comparison of income and balance sheets by generation
4.1 Income
4.2 Debt
4.3 Assets and net worth
5. Comparison of consumption behavior by generation
5.1 Household spending in the CE survey by age and generation
5.2 An empirical assessment of generational consumption patterns
5.3 Do millennials have a unique consumption basket?
6. Case study I: vehicle purchases
6.1 Case study II: spending on food and housing
7. Conclusion
Data appendix
References
9 - China's consumer spending e-commerce: facts and evidence from JD's festival online sales∗
1. Introduction
2. Overall development of China's e-commerce
2.1 China's main online retailers
2.2 JD's E-Commerce data
3. Patterns and key features of China's e-commerce
3.1 Online consumer spending, by festival
3.2 Online consumer spending, by product
3.3 Online consumer spending, by age cohort
3.4 Online consumer spending, by region
4. E-commerce spending and regional income
4.1 Trends and patterns against regional income
4.2 Estimation results
5. Concluding remarks
Appendices
References
10 - Consumer expectations and the macroeconomy
1. Disentangling preferences and expectations
2. Survey data on subjective expectations
3. Quantitative and probabilistic question formats
4. The information content of probabilistic questions
5. Are expectations data predictive?
6. Integrating subjective expectations data into economic models of behavior
7. Summary and directions for future research
References
11 - Macro forecasting using alternative data
1. The importance of macroeconomic measurement and prediction
2. Important economic data releases and prediction
3. Macro Data are Noisy
3.1 The revision problem in traditional data
3.2 Increased noise in times of low growth
4. Our goal: real-time macro data with less noise
4.1 Nowcasting
4.2 The pyramid-like framework of nowcasting
5. Alternative data
5.1 The microfoundations of macro: alternative data in the context of the Lucas and Romer critique
6. An framework for alternative data
7. Predicting data releases with search data
7.1 Why curate? The Google Flu story
7.2 Modeling differences rather than levels
7.3 Housing, retail, and auto sectors with alternative data
8. Modeling case study: Nonfarm payrolls
8.1 Interpretable versus Blackbox or top-down versus bottom-up models via Kuhn
8.2 The practical reason: modeling noise in small data sets
8.3 The five keys: clean data, internal consistency, shrinkage, bootstrapping, and ensembling
8.4 The model overconfidence metric
8.5 Discussion of case study results
9. Live production results
9.1 Prediction in practice: the main mistakes17
9.2 Public benefits of microfoundations of macro
9.3 Two main contributions: accurate measurement and more detail
9.4 Mitigating data colonialism?
Acknowledgments
References
12 - Regional price parities in the United States
1. Introduction
2. Price levels for CPI areas
3. Regional price parities for states and metropolitan areas
4. Selected results
4.1 Regional price parities for states
4.2 Adjusted personal incomes for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan portions of states27
5. Concluding remarks
Acknowledgments
References
13 - Measuring prices and real household consumption of medical goods: service-based versus disease-based approaches
1. Introduction
2. Basic theoretical framework
2.1 Utility and health
2.2 Medical price and cost of living indexes
2.3 Decomposing nominal expenditures
3. The current service-based approach to medical measurement
3.1 Current methods
3.2 What current price indexes measure and do not measure
4. The disease-based approach
4.1 Single-disease price indexes
4.2 General disease-based price indexes
5. BLS experimental disease-based price indexes
6. Data
7. Results
7.1 Trends in utilization by disease
7.2 Disease-based price indexes
7.3 Decomposition of nominal expenditures
8. Discussion and future work
8.1 Limitations of current disease-based measures
8.2 Quality adjustment
9. Conclusion
References
14 - A brief history of the supplemental poverty measure1
1. Introduction
2. History and background
2.1 The official poverty measure
2.2 National Academy of Sciences panel on poverty measurement and research that lead to the SPM
2.3 The interagency technical working group to develop a supplemental poverty measure and early research
3. Construction of the SPM thresholds
3.1 Equivalence scale
3.2 Threshold estimation
3.3 Geographic adjustments
4. Resources
5. Additions to income: noncash benefits
5.1 Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program
5.2 National School Lunch Program
5.3 Supplementary nutrition program for women, infants, and children
5.4 Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program
5.5 Housing assistance
6. Subtractions from resources: necessary expenses
6.1 Taxes
6.2 Work-related expenses
6.3 Child support paid
6.4 Medical expenses
7. SPM estimation
8. SPM poverty rates
9. Changes to the SPM since 2011
10. Extensions of the SPM
11. Ongoing research on the SPM
12. Future directions for SPM
13. Summary
References
Index
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
H
I
J
K
L
M
N
O
P
Q
R
S
T
U
V
W
Z
Back Cover

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