Green Energy [1 ed.] 9788792982773, 9788792329417

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Copyright © 2012. River Publishers. All rights reserved.

Green Energy

RIVER PUBLISHERS SERIES IN COMMUNICATIONS

Consulting Series Editors MARINA RUGGIERI University of Roma “Tor Vergata” Italy

HOMAYOUN NIKOOKAR Delft University of Technology The Netherlands

This series focuses on communications science and technology. This includes the theory and use of systems involving all terminals, computers, and information processors; wired and wireless networks; and network layouts, procontentsols, architectures, and implementations. Furthermore, developments toward new market demands in systems, products, and technologies such as personal communications services, multimedia systems, enterprise networks, and optical communications systems.

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• • • • • •

Wireless Communications Networks Security Antennas & Propagation Microwaves Software Defined Radio

For a list of other books in this series, please visit www.riverpublishers.com

Green Energy Dr. M. D. Tiwari Director IIIT, Allahabad & Amethi and Former President Association of Indian Universities New Delhi

Dr. Anurika Vaish

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Associate Professor & Divisional Head, MBA (IT) & MS IIIT Allahabad

Aalborg

Published, sold and distributed by: River Publishers PO box 1657 Algade 42 9000 Aalborg Denmark Tel.: +4536953197

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EISBN: 978-87-92982-77-3 ISBN: 978-87-92329-41-7 © 2012 River Publishers All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without prior written permission of the publishers.

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Preface

Green Energy is increasingly becoming important component for all individuals and governments in the world. According to Brundtland Commission Report (Our Common Future, 1987) of United Nations states : “sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” Green Energy is widely considered as Sustainable Energy/ Renewable Energy which meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generation to meet their own needs. In the global movement of Green Energy — Sustainable Renewable Energy, most of the countries decided to be a part of this movement of saving our planet and our future generation. This humble effort is supported by the River Publishers, Denmark and eleven international authors who are experts in their respective fields. The output is this book — Green Energy. This book is comprising of six chapters. The first chapter discusses how global temperature can be controlled with the help of technology. It is claimed that the average temperature on earth has already warmed by close to 1◦ C since the beginning of the industrial era. Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2 , the most important greenhouse gas, ranged between 200 and 300 parts per million (ppm) for 800,000 years, but shot up to about 387 ppm over the past 150 years, mainly because of the burning of fossil fuels and, to a lesser extent, agriculture and changing land use. It mentions that the Kyoto Protocol of 1998 set limits on international carbon emissions which were not respected and major efforts were needed at the Conference of Parties (COP 15) at Copenhagen in December 2009. The result was Copenhagen Climate Accord. It is now agreed to aim at a CO2 Concentration in the atmosphere that should not exceed 450 ppm, in 2050, v

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vi so that global temperature increase will be limited to around 2◦ C, by then. It is believed that the energy sector is responsible for around two thirds of global carbon emissions (deforestation 17%, agriculture 14%). Presently, we are heavily dependent on fossil fuel (coal) for power generation and other thought is that practically one cannot ignore the major role being played by coal in global energy resources. The chapter discusses Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) technologies to improve power generation efficiency and also to reduce global temperature. Second chapter explains about green buildings. It explains about costs and benefits of green houses. It explains that there is misperception about green buildings costs consider to be 28 percent more whereas the addition cost of green building is about 2 percent, or $4 to $5 per square foot. If we consider the larger set of benefits that accrue over 20 years — improved health, indirect energy savings, reduction of emissions, operations and maintenance costs and so on — the savings add up. When we add up these benefits — the net present value of direct financial benefits primarily to the building owners, somewhat to the occupants, and somewhat to the community — the total benefits are about ten times greater than the cost premium of constructing a green building. Third chapter discusses about biofuels. Differently from electricity production, which can be provided from several renewable energy sources (solar, wind and small-hydro), the replacement of fossil fuels in transportation sector through commercialized technologies is possible only with biofuels (according to authors). This chapter discusses biofuels Programs in Brazil. In addition to the environmental benefits, the biofuels program in Brazil has shown significant benefits in social aspects. Brazil is the world’s second largest producer of biodiesel. This also analyses the perspectives of replication of the Brazilian experience in other developing countries, as well as the existing barriers and proposed policies to overcome them. Fourth chapter discusses about technical feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut. All twenty-five communities in Nunavut are dependent on the use of imported diesel fuel for their electricity, which results in environmental, social and economic problems. Communities face degradation of their lands, harm to their local wildlife, as well as reduced air quality. Additionally, the Government of Nunavut (GN) spends about 20% of its annual budget on energy, which limits its ability to address other essential infrastructure needs, including education, health and nutrition. This chapter critically

vii

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analyzes the technical viability of renewable energy technologies (RETs) to mitigate some of the damage done by diesel in three case-study communities in Nunavut: Iqaluit, Rankin Inlet, and Resolute Bay. Fifth chapter presents a summary of 15 years of grass root project experience in partnership with impoverished, remote high altitude communities in the Nepal Himalayas. The authors argue that access to elementary energy services is a critical aspect of long-term community development. They claim that tapping locally available renewable energy sources, through renewable energy technologies, developed for a defined geographical, culture and climatic context is central to a project’s sustainability and long-term success. Nepal is one of the poorest developing countries, with 42 of Nepal’s 75 districts considered acute and permanent food-deficit areas. Nepal is also one of a few countries with a lower female life-expectancy than male. Crops are vulnerable, with immediate consequences if natural calamities strike or weather patterns change. Nepal’s rural people and communities (∼75%) are deprived of even the most basic energy services. This chapter summarizes the role of renewable energy technologies, designed for a specific context, to meet identified community needs. Sixth chapter argues that, contrary to popular belief, sustainable sources, in particular solar power, are capable of providing all the energy the Europe needs at reasonable cost. The Europe does not need nuclear power to make a transition to a fossil-fuel free energy supply. The authors put arguments to support their statement. This book has covered a wide range of issues relating with global climate change to grass root level village life supported by data and references. I hope this book will be a significant contribution to the global movement of Green Energy — the Sustainable Renewable Energy. Dr. M.D.Tiwari Dr. Anurika Vaish

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Editors’ Biography

Dr. Murli Dhar Tiwari was born on August 16th , 1948 in a small village near Amethi in an ordinary family. After school education he completed his B.Sc., M.Sc. and D.Phil. Degrees from Allahabad University. In 1973 he joined HNB Garhwal University as a Lecturer, subsequently he became Reader, Head and Professor of Physics of the same University. In 1984 he joined University Grants Commission, New Delhi as a Principal Scientific Officer and after working for a decade on senior position there he then joined All India Council for Technical Education, New Delhi as a Senior Advisor in 1994. In 1995 he joined MJP Rohilkhand University, Bareilly as a Vice Chancellor. During 3 years of his tenure he opened a number of Professional Courses at this University which was adjudged First University in all U.P. Universities in performance appraisal in three consecutive years. He also received Rs. 1.5 crores per year as an award to the University. After completing his term at Bareilly, Dr. Tiwari moved to Allahabad and established Indian Institute of Information Technology, Allahabad (IIIT-A) in 1999. Since then he is working there as a Director. The Institute runs B.Tech. (IT & E&C), M.Tech. in 7 areas, MBA and MS(CLIS). The Institute got collaborations with most of the top class Universities of USA, Switzerland, U.K. and others. He has published about 150 research papers in refereed journals and supervised 12 Ph.D. students. He has ix

x Editors’ Biography

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enjoyed prestigious fellowships like Alexander-von-humboldt Fellowship and visited abroad several times. Dr. Tiwari has also worked on prestigious positions such as President of Association of Indian Universities, New Delhi. At present he is Chairman, Electronics and Technology Division, Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, Chairman, Indo-Swiss, Indo-Canada, Indo-Japan and Indo-Russian S&T Collaborative Programmes of Ministry of Science and Technology, Govt. of India. To promote science education and research in the country, Dr. Tiwari organized A Conclave of Nobel Laureates in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011 and the same is being done again in 2012. This is a unique programme and is contributing a lot for awareness and interests of young brilliant students for science education & research. At present his interests are Information Technology in general — Wireless Sensors, Human Computer Interaction and Application of IT in untaped Non-conventional Energy in particular.

Dr. Anurika Vaish is an Associate Professor and Divisional Head at the Indian Institute of Information Technology Allahabad (IIITA). She holds a Ph.D. in Information Technology from IIIT A. She has been instrumental in initiating, conceptualizing and promoting the MBA IT & Master in Cyber Laws & Information Security Program in IIIT A. She has authored a number of papers in peer reviewed national and international journals, conferences and books to her credit. With over 10 years of academic and research experience, her research interests span financial computations, modelling & engineering to behavioural sciences. A true motivator and key personnel behind many projects of international and national repute, she has been a role model for academicians as well as for students.

Contents

1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9

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2

3

3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4

Carbon Capture and Storage Need and Prospects Hisham Khatib The Background Copenhagen Climate Accord “Falls Short of What is Needed” The Need for CCS CCS and Mitigation CCS in Electrical Power Generation IGCC and Polygeneration A Road Map for CCS The Future of CCS The Future of CCS is Linked to Future of Coal

1 1 2 3 5 5 6 7 7 8

The Economics of Sustainability: The Business Case that Makes Itself∗ Greg Kats

11

Bioenergy in Developing Countries: Lessons Learned in Brazil and Perspectives in Other Countries Jose Goldemberg and Suani T. Coelho

25

Introduction Biofuels Programs in Brazil Environmental Aspects of Biofuels Production Scenarios for Biofuels Worldwide

xi

26 27 29 31

xii Contents 3.5 3.6 3.7

4

4.1 4.2

4.3

4.4 4.5

4.6

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5

5.1 5.2

Existing Barriers to Replicate the Brazilian Program Discussion Conclusions References Technical Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut Nicole C. McDonald, Ha T Nguyen, and Joshua M. Pearce Introduction Background 4.2.1 Current Electricity Systems in Nunavut 4.2.2 Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs) Methodology 4.3.1 RETScreen Renewable Energy Simulations 4.3.2 Energy Savings, Diesel Fuel Savings, Economic Savings and GHG Savings Results Discussion 4.5.1 Potential for PV and Wind 4.5.2 Economics 4.5.3 Natural Resource Portfolio Conclusions References The Role of Renewable Energy Technology in Holistic Community Development Alexander Zahnd and Philip Jennings Introduction Philosophy and Rationale of Holistic Community Development 5.2.1 A Glimpse at the History of Development 5.2.2 Comprehensive vs. Selective Approaches to Development

33 36 36 37

41 42 43 45 46 51 52 56 57 67 67 68 68 69 70

75 77 80 80 82

Contents

5.3

Holistic Community Development Concepts — “Family of 4” and “Family of 4 PLUS” 5.3.1 The “Family of 4” 5.3.2 Contextualised Technologies as part of the HCD Concept 5.3.3 The “Family of 4 PLUS” 5.3.4 Synergistic Effects 5.3.5 The Importance of Education Project Planning and Evaluation Procedures Results and Discussion Conclusions References

5.4 5.5 5.6

6

Europe’s Sunny Future∗ Jaap Hoogakker and Eva Bik

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6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5

Misconceptions Transition model Fertile land Crystal clear Sunny Future

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84 84 96 100 123 123 125 130 135 140 143 143 144 145 146 148

Authors

151

Index

153

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1 Carbon Capture and Storage Need and Prospects

Hisham Khatib Honorary Vice Chairman, World Energy Council Past Minister of Water Resources and Planning, Amman, Jordan

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1.1 The Background The need to manage and mitigate global carbon emissions is now the hottest global concern. In spite of all inhibition and controversies surrounding environmental issues and difficulties of predicting climate change there is (almost) global consensus that the continuous unmanaged emissions of carbon are going to increase atmospheric temperatures with serious environmental implications. To limit long term temperature increase to two degrees centigrade above the pre-industrial level has become a target agreed to almost by every government. The question is how and by whom? It is claimed that the average temperature on earth has already warmed by close to 1◦ C since the beginning of the industrial period. Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2 , the most important greenhouse gas, ranged between 200 and 300 parts per million (ppm) for 800,000 years, but shot up to about 387 ppm over the past 150 years, mainly because of the burning of fossil fuels and, to a lesser extent, agriculture and changing land use. The Kyoto Protocol of 1998 set limits on international carbon emissions. These were not respected. Emissions are not only increasing but they are Green Energy, 1–9. © 2012 River Publishers. All rights reserved.

2 Carbon Capture and Storage Need and Prospects increasing at a faster rate. Hence there was the need for a major effort at the Conference of the Parties (COP 15) at Copenhagen in Dec 2009. It is now agreed to aim at a CO2 concentration in the atmosphere that should not exceed 450 ppm, in 2050, so that global temperature increase will be limited to around 2◦ C, by then. It is believed that the energy sector is responsible for around two thirds of global carbon emissions (deforestation 17%, agriculture 14%). Therefore curtailing emissions from the energy sector (mainly power generation) has become the center of interest for managing global emissions.

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1.2 Copenhagen Climate Accord “Falls Short of What is Needed” The two-week UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen closed on 18 December without a binding agreement, although the summit agreed on a long term target of reducing emissions enough to hold the rise in global temperature to 2◦ C. However, the IEA issued a statement on 22 December saying: “The IEA welcomes the Copenhagen Accord, which provides guidance on the next steps towards a legally-binding agreement on climate change. The accord provides a clear environmental goal of limiting the increase in global temperature to 2◦ C. It calls for emissions to peak as early as possible as well as a collective commitment by developed countries to financially support developing country actions in mitigation and adaptation. It also lays out the foundation for support to developing country actions, over and above their unilateral actions. The IEA estimates that developing countries will need to invest around $200 bn annually by 2020 to move to a less carbon-intensive energy system. The $100 bn pledged by developed countries is a significant contribution towards that goal. However, IEA calculations show that emission reduction pledges to date fall short of what is needed to limit the long-term concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to 450 parts per million of CO2 -equivalent, in line with a 2◦ C increase.” This optimistic assessment of the Copenhagen outcome is not shared by everybody. Energy Security Analysis Inc (ESAI) analyst Sander Cohan said in a 21 December Occasional Memo that the non-binding nature of the agreement was a major shortcoming. “From a global perspective,” he warned, “a voluntary agreement undercuts the UN’s leadership in pushing major emitting nations to enact climate change. Ultimately, there is no mechanism for authority, and no

1.3 The Need for CCS

3

punishment for ignoring international norms. Even if competing economies implement their climate change plans, there is limited transparency to ensure that these plans are enforced and managed effectively. In addition to creating a vacuum in global leadership, the non-binding treaty is a disincentive for individual nations to enact carbon legislation.”

1.3 The Need for CCS

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To head for the targeted limited emissions there is a need for a portfolio of actions. Most prominent is efficiency in utilization with clean energy technologies increasing use of clean fuel. This will reduce energy intensity and mitigate emissions. With current trends, global energy-related CO2 emissions will increase from 26 gigatons in 2005 to 43–62 gigatons by 2050 (see Figure 1.1). Models rely on four technologies to close this gap — energy efficiency (the largest wedge), followed by renewable energy, carbon capture and shortage, and nuclear. Therefore, in priorities, CCS figure higher than nuclear in the portfolio of actions for managing emissions. CCS application is mainly in power plants.

Fig. 1.1 Source: IEA, World Bank.

4 Carbon Capture and Storage Need and Prospects High costs, limited availability of shortage site, as well as commercial viability are still barriers to the deployment of CCS technologies. In view of the World Bank CCS could reduce emission from fossil fuels by 85–95 percent and is critical in sustaining an important role for fossil fuels in a carbon-constrained world. It involves three main steps:

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• CO2 capture from large stationary sources, such as power plants or other industrial processes, before or after combustion. • Transport to storage sites by pipelines. • Storage through injection of CO2 into geological sites, including: depleted oil and gas fields to enhance oil and gas recovery, coal beds to enhance coal bed methane recovery, deep saline formations, and oceans. Currently, CCS is competitive with conventional coal on at a price of $50 to $90 ton of CO2 . Still at the R&D stage, it is technologically immature. The number of economically available geological sites close to carbon emission sources varies widely from country to country. Early opportunities to lower costs are at depleted oil fields and enhanced oil recovery sites, but storage in deep saline aquifers would also be required for deep emission cuts. CCS also significantly reduces efficiency of power plants and has the potential for leakage. The near-term priority should be spurring large-scale demonstration projects to reduce costs and improve reliability. Four large-scale commercial CCS demonstration projects are in operation — in Sleipner (Norway); Weyburn (Canada-United States); Salah (Algeria); and Snohvit (Norway) — mostly from gas or coal gasification. Together these projects capture 4 million tons of CO2 per year. A 450 ppm CO2 e trajectory requires 30 large-scale demonstration plants by 2020. Capturing CO2 from low-efficiency power plants is not economically viable, so new power plants should be built with highly efficient technologies for retrofitting with CCS later. Legal and regulatory frame-works must be established for CO2 injection and to address long-term liabilities. The European Union has adopted a directive on the geological storage of CO2 , and the United States has proposed CCS rules. Detailed assessments of potential carbon storage sites are also needed, particularly in developing countries. Without a massive international effort, resolving the entire chain of technical, legal, institutional, financial, and environmental issues could require a decade or more before application go to scale.

1.4 CCS and Mitigation

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It must be realized that the world’s largest emitter of CO2 is now China with over than one fifth of global emissions, followed closely by the United States. It is in these two countries where CCS needs to be demonstrated and deployed for the rest of the world to follow.

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1.4 CCS and Mitigation The best and cheapest way to reduce emissions is efficiency measures. We have to realize that we are only usefully using 39% of the primary energy we are consuming. It is expected that efficiency in energy use will improve by 1.5% annually, this efficiency improvement will enable world GDP to increase by over 3% annually while limiting annual energy and emissions growth (according to IEA Reference Scenario) to only 1.5% annually. But if we are aiming to achieve the 450 ppm Scenario energy growth need to be limited to only 0.8% annually. Quoting the IEA, “End use efficiency is the largest contributor to CO2 emission abatement in 2030, accounting for more than half of total savings in the 450 Scenario, compared with the Reference Scenario. Energy-efficiency investments in building, industry and fuel-cost savings over the lifetime of the capital stock often outweigh the additional capital cost of the efficiency measure, even when future savings are discounted. Decarbonisation of the power sector also plays a central role in reducing emissions. Power generation accounts for more than two-thirds of the savings in the 450 Scenario (of which 40% results from lower electricity demand).” In the carbon constrained scenario, CCS in the power sector and industry, but mainly in the power sector, represents 10% of total emissions savings in 2030 relative to the Reference Scenario. Hence, in this paper, we are going to concentrate on CCS in the power sector being the most important application of this technology.

1.5 CCS in Electrical Power Generation It is in electrical power generation that CCS has its most promising application. But we have to realize an important fact, CO2 capture and pressurization requires energy, thereby reducing overall energy efficiency, and adding cost. CCS therefore only makes sense for highly efficient processes. This implies

6 Carbon Capture and Storage Need and Prospects

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that CCS-enabling technologies, including efficiency technologies, must be focused on for CCS development. Nowhere this is obvious more than in the power sector. The efficiency of power generation world wide now averages around only 33%–35%, this renders CCS not economical to vintage plant. CCS need to be incorporated with new high efficiency power generation where the plant output of CO2 per kWh generated is relatively low to allow its economical sequestration and storage. There are two approaches to improve power generation efficiency: one is through increasing live steam parameters (pressure and temperature) to develop supercritical (SC) and ultra-supercritical (USC) technologies; another is by system integration. A typical example is Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC). In the next 10 years, SC and USC will be built in significant numbers, and these new plants are likely to remain in use until 2050 for electricity production from coal because of their flexibility and general advantages of lower cost, reliability, availability, maintainability, and operability. IGCC currently looks promising in its ability to produce deep CO2 reductions at least cost. New pulverized coal power plants — utilizing SC and USC — operate at increasingly higher temperatures and pressures and therefore achieve higher efficiencies than conventional units. Supercritical power generation has become the dominant technology for new plants in industrialized countries. Now considerable efforts are underway in United States, Europe, and Japan to develop 700◦ C-class Advanced Ultra-Supercritical (A-USC) steam turbines. If successful, this will raise the efficiency of the A-USC units to about 55% by 2020.

1.6 IGCC and Polygeneration In the industrialized world, IGCC is a technically proven and near-commercial technology. In the IGCC process, coal is gasified with oxygen to produce syngas that, after cleaning, is burned in a gas turbine to produce electricity. Exhaust gas from the gas turbine passes through a heat recovery boiler generating steam, which drives a steam turbine to generate extra electricity. IGCC has been hindered by its higher upfront capital investment, poorer reliability and availability, and inflexibility of operation, all of which are key

1.7 A Road Map for CCS

7

barriers to its deployment. To overcome this polygeneration is being developed. Polygeneration system is an energy system that couples IGCC and coal chemical technologies, including the output of power and chemical products.

1.7 A Road Map for CCS As a future roadmap to CCS it will be prudent to adopt critical CCS-enabling technologies as an immediate application (such as SC and USC power technologies) and CCS as a longer term goal. Coal gasification may be the leading clean technology. Gasification transforms coal’s complex mix of hydrocarbons into a H2 -rich syngas. Compared with conventional direct burning of coal, coal gasification is a more efficient, cleaner, and more flexible way to use coal. The syngas can be used for many different purposes, thereby increasing the flexibility of the energy supply. More important, gasification could even help control emissions of CO2 , which is appears to be more cost-effectively captured from syngas plants than from conventional coal-fired plants. This means coal gasification technology in combination with CCS could be an unbeatable combination for CO2 reduction when using coal.

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1.8 The Future of CCS The current high costs of CCS are an important obstacle to its widespread deployment, but they are expected to fall over time as the technology improves and as more experience is gained in commercial applications around the world. But there is some confusion around its true economics, exacerbated by the wide range of cost numbers quoted, the small number of actual demonstration projects, and the limited information about how different cost estimates are derived. Also CCS is a new technology that carries a significant energy penalty. However, among all the critical CCS — enabling technologies, coal gasification has the potential to play a leading role. By 2030, it is likely that costs of capture have come down, and all new large CO2 emitters are required to capture CO2 . By this time, the adoption of CCS will become standard practice for all large stationary fossil fuel installations, as is now the case for other pollutants. Retrofitting pulverized coal facilities

8 Carbon Capture and Storage Need and Prospects with CCS will take place. Power–chemicals–steel polygeneration with CCS will become the mainstay of the new capacity. Liu & Gallagher in their excellent article in CCS Map for China (Policy, Jan 2010, pp 59–74) make the following recommendation for commercializing CCS: 1. Strong Political Will 2. Create proper and adequate financial incentives 3. Existence of a rigorous policy and regulatory framework.

1.9 The Future of CCS is Linked to Future of Coal

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Coal, being the fossil fuel with the highest carbon content, is closely linked to CCS technologies. Therefore deployment of CCS depends to a great extent on the continuous future development of coal as a leading fuel, and vice versa. There were recent doubts about that mainly caused by the possible adoption of the 450 scenario which advocates less dependence on coal, as well as the recent large gas discoveries elsewhere, particularly in the US. In our view coal will continue to play its role as a leading fuel for decades to come. This is due to the abundant availability of coal resources in China, India, the States and also East Europe. In many of these countries it is the main/ only resources available. Also its cheapness compared to alternative fuels, as demonstrated in the following graph.

Source: IEA WEO (2009)

1.9 The Future of CCS is Linked to Future of Coal

9

Therefore coal will continue to play a major role in global energy resources for decades to come. Its future will be significantly aided by development of CCS technologies. Notes: This article benefited and quoted from: 1. IEA: World Energy Outlook 2009 2. World Bank: World Development Report 2010 3. Energy Policy Journal: H. Lui & G. S. Gallagher

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“Catalyzing Strategic transformation to a low-carbon economy — A CCS roadmap for China”, Col. 38, Jan 2010, pp 59–74

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2 The Economics of Sustainability: The Business Case that Makes Itself∗ Greg Kats

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President, Capital E, 1666 Connecticut Ave. NW, Suite 310, Washington, DC 20009, United States

I’m going to talk about the cost effectiveness of “greening” buildings, drawing from my book Greening Our Built World: Costs, Benefits, and Strategies.1 I wrote the book to address a fundamental question: How much does it cost to construct a green building compared to conventional buildings? Sponsors for the project included the largest real estate organizations in the country, the American Council on Renewable Energy, the American Institute of Architects, the American Public Health Association, Building Owners and Managers Association International, Enterprise Community Partners, the Federation of American Scientists, the National Association of State Energy Officials, the National Association of Realtors, the Real Estate Roundtable, the U.S. Green Building Council, and the World Green Building Council. The objective was to examine the issue from a balanced, in-depth perspective — greening the built environment is neither solely a nongovernmental organization initiative nor an environmental one. We started with 350 buildings and worked with 100 architects, and by the time we were done, we were able to gather good data on about 170 buildings. * Presentation Transcript — Achieving High-Performance Federal Facilities: Strategies and Approaches

for Transformation Change, July 20, 2010, National Academy of Sciences. 1 G. Kats, Greening Our Built World: Costs, Benefits, and Strategies, Island Press, Washington, D.C., 2010.

Green Energy, 11–23. © 2012 River Publishers. All rights reserved.

12 The Economics of Sustainability: The Business Case that Makes Itself∗

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We found that the perception is that building green costs about 17 percent more than building conventionally. However, the data show that the actual cost premium is closer to two percent of total design and construction costs, sometimes referred to as “first costs.” This misperception of higher first cost seems to be very widespread. For example, I had the opportunity to go to Beijing last fall as part of the Obama administration trip. In China, the perception is that green buildings cost 28 percent more (Figure 2.1). The perception of higher cost seems to be the primary determinant for why people don’t build green as a matter of course, which underscores the importance of gathering hard data on this, communicating those data, and helping people understand that green buildings are an important step toward building more intelligently. The firm that I run, Capital E, is currently developing an online, publicly accessible green building database. The database will meet the need for a centralized data source to provide building decision makers with the data necessary to understand and develop the business case for green buildings. The database will provide a standard template for building owners to enter data on green building projects. End users will be able to undertake analysis that generates charts covering a broad range of relative costs, benefits and performance metrics within user-specified building sets (e.g., cost effectiveness of all public buildings in a defined region). More information can be found at www.cap-e.com.

Fig. 2.1 Cost of building green: Evidence from 146 green buildings. Source: Greg Kats, Capital E.

13

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Fig. 2.2 Costs and benefits of green buildings: Present value of 20 years of estimated impacts based on study data set collected from recent green buildings. Source: Greg Kats, Capital E.

Figure 2.2 shows data collected for utility bills, principally energy and water, for green office buildings. The additional cost of building green is about 2 percent, or $4 to $5 per square foot. If you assume that energy prices do not rise very fast, discount them at 7 percent, and assume only 20 years of operation (which is conservative because buildings clearly last more than 20 years), then the net present value from utility bill savings alone is almost three times greater than first cost design premium. Thus, based on utilities alone, it is a fiscally prudent strategy to design and build green. Moreover, because there’s a lot of uncertainty about energy and water costs — which are volatile and tend to rise faster than inflation — it is also a risk reduction strategy. If you consider the larger set of benefits that accrue over 20 years — improved health, indirect energy savings, reduction of emissions, operations and maintenance savings, and so on — the savings add up. (When examining health-related issues, we relied particularly on the work that Vivian Loftness and her team at Carnegie Mellon University has done to compile and review hundreds of peer reviewed studies.2 ) When you add up these benefits — the 2 Carnegie Mellon University, Center for Building Performance and Diagnostics. BIDS Tool. Additional

information available at http://cbpd.arc.cmu.edu/ebids/

14 The Economics of Sustainability: The Business Case that Makes Itself∗

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Fig. 2.3 Costs and benefits of green buildings: Present value of 20 years of estimated impacts based on study data set and synthesis of relevant research. Note: There is significantly greater uncertainty, and less consensus, around methodologies for estimating health and societal benefits. Source: Greg Kats, Capital E.

net present value of direct financial benefits primarily to the building owners, somewhat to the occupants, and somewhat to the community — the total benefits are about ten times greater than the cost premium of constructing a green building (Figure 2.3). Over a period of 20 years, there are a number of additional benefits. There are substantial additional benefits from green design relating to productivity, property value, and other factors that we were not able to quantify for this project, but that are roughly the same order of magnitude as the benefits we were able to quantify. So, the question is no longer: Why would you design and construct a green building? it is instead: Why would you not design a green building? It is fiscally prudent to do so, and it entails lower risk. The next time someone says to you, We’re thinking of designing a conventional building, you should ask them, Who’s your lawyer? I say this because the allergies, asthma, and respiratory problems associated with conventional design begin to have greater liability impacts when you can build green, much healthier buildings cost effectively.

15

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Fig. 2.4 Conservation development: 20–30% reduced development costs. Source: Greg Kats, Capital E.

We also looked at ten Midwest residential development projects with a combined total of 1,500 homes. In these projects, the homes were built in close proximity to each other, and 50 to 60 percent of the land was set aside for parks, walking areas, or trails. The site development costs per project were more than 20 percent lower on average. The costs per unit were about $12,000 less than conventional development, primarily due to lower infrastructure costs. In addition, the initial sale value was higher, and subsequent value appreciation was greater (Figure 2.4). Green development is not only about individual buildings, but also about how buildings are located in relation to each other. The argument that you cannot build green without giving up economic benefits, at least for the building sector, is manifestly wrong. Interestingly, of the 170 buildings we studied, 18 were at least 50 percent more energy efficient and about one-third used some on-site renewable energy. The average CO2 reduction for these 18 buildings was about 65 percent, even though the technology used was 5 years old. The average payback for these buildings with two-thirds reduction in CO2 from operations was about 5 times the initial cost over 20 years (Figure 2.5).

16 The Economics of Sustainability: The Business Case that Makes Itself∗

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Fig. 2.5 Advanced energy savings and green premium: 18 buildings from the study data set. Source: Greg Kats, Capital E.

The lesson from this study is that we can reduce energy use to a much greater extent than we are typically doing today. The kind of vision that the General Services Administration is laying out, in terms of very deep reductions, is supported by what we know about the actual cost premiums of deep reductions. Executive Order 13514, Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance, sets somewhat ambitious goals for federal agencies, but it could go much farther. In my opinion, some goals are too weak and, in some cases, need both interim and long-term performance targets. This would help builders, architects, engineers, and constructors understand that there are goals that federal agencies, and in turn they, have to respond to and that the goals rise over specific periods of time. Executive Order 13514 requires the diversion of 50 percent of all construction and demolition waste by 2015. However, the average green building diverts more than 80 percent of construction and demolition waste cost effectively today. So, why isn’t there an 80 percent minimum mandate in this executive order? Similarly, zero-netenergy buildings by 2030 is a good goal, but we need interim goals, such as 50 percent lower energy use by 2018 and 75 percent lower use by 2025. Executive Order 13514 also calls for paper to include 30 percent recycled content. In my office and in my home, we use only 100-percent-recycledcontent paper. So, why wouldn’t the federal government establish a goal of 50 percent recycled content by 2015 and a goal of 80 percent recycled content

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17 by 2018? Setting such goals for federal agencies would signal to the market that there will be a large emerging demand over a finite timeframe, and then the market could build the capacity to respond to that market. Proponents of green design are sometimes accused of promoting things that are only plausible for the wealthy or for the government. On the topic of green affordable housing, I had the good fortune of being the principal advisor in developing the Green Communities Criteria which is now the national standard for design of green, affordable housing,3 with 20,000 units built. The design and construction cost premium is about 3 percent, but the utility bills for these units are about 35 percent lower than conventional units. These units also show substantial improvements in indoor environmental quality. If we can build green affordable housing cost effectively, then there is no building type that we cannot green cost effectively. In my opinion, all of the HUD homes (and keep in mind that HUD spends almost $5 billion a year on energy bills) and leased buildings should follow the Green Communities Criteria. (I should add that HUD in this administration is doing a lot of green, healthy cost effective design changes and programs already). There are other opportunities that could be mandated by an executive order. For example, greater coordination with the European Union (EU), California, and Massachusetts, which mandate zero net energy residential by 2020, while the EU mandate is for 2019. In addition, all new or retrofitted federal buildings should achieve a LEED Gold rating and reduce their energy use by 50 percent by 2015 and by 65 percent by 2018. Currently, there is public funding for building upgrades, such as lighting, with 2-year paybacks. But if you do a shallow retrofit, you can’t go in and do a more serious energy efficiency upgrade. “Cream skimming” should not be allowed, i.e., there should be no federal funding, subsidies, or tax benefits for retrofits that do not achieve either at least a 30 percent reduction in energy and water use or an Energy Star score of at least 90. The value of greening goes beyond energy savings. Figure 2.6 shows the Comcast Building, owned by Liberty Property Trust — a real estate investment trust in Philadelphia. Like many cities, Philadelphia is suffering from out-migration. Liberty built a super-green building; it’s the tallest building between New York and Dallas. When reporters 3 Available at http://www.practitionerresources.org/cache/documents/666/66641.pdf.

18 The Economics of Sustainability: The Business Case that Makes Itself∗

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Fig. 2.6 Comcast Building, Liberty Property Trust.

from the Philadelphia Enquirer saw the plans for this, they said, “This building challenges Philadelphia to be great again.” So, it’s not just about buildings. It’s also about brand. I think about brand as really three aspects. One is increased brand awareness. So, if I’ve got a new green bank branch, I’m going to get a lot of positive free media coverage that drives traffic to the site. There are attribute-specific preferences — I might have health concerns and care about indoor environmental quality improvements, or I might live in Arizona and care about reduced water use. These specific attributes I care about drive me to that building as a purchaser or tenant or client.

19

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But, I think the largest brand-related driver here is non-attribute-specific preference, e.g., the sense that it’s a higher-quality building, which contributes to the perception that my brand quality is better. The LEED green design process is a more rigorous and integrated one, so you end up getting a building that is more likely to be designed and built as intended and operated as designed. You reduce your risk and increase performance. It’s why at least half of the corporate 500 firms that are building headquarters now build green . . . it’s their face to the world. So, this larger brand aspect is hard to quantify, but ultimately it may be perhaps the largest driver in promoting green buildings. We are also starting to see a significant premium for green buildings in terms of increased rental rates, sales, and occupancy (Figure 2.7). The premium for green buildings is about two and a half times greater for LEED Certified and Energy Star buildings than for conventional ones. So, again, green design is not only about higher financial return it’s also about risk reduction. In a buyers’ market, people exercise their preferences, and they are starting to do so around green elements. We know climate change is happening. As with smoking’s link to cancer, the science is unambiguous about climate accelerating damage and costs. There are still perhaps 2 percent of climatologists who do not share this view — perhaps about the same percent of epidemiologists who do not accept the scientific consensus that smoking results in cancer.

Fig. 2.7 Green building benefits: Increased rent, sales and occupancy. Source: J. Spivey, “Commercial Real Estate and the Environment,” CoStar, 2008. Available at http:// www.costar.com/uploadedFiles/Partners/CoStar-Green-Study.pdf

20 The Economics of Sustainability: The Business Case that Makes Itself∗

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The question is, What are we going to do about it? My company, Good Energies, a venture capital firm, is one of the largest investors in clean energy technology. It’s a multi-billion dollar firm. I lead our investments in energy efficient and renewable technologies. I wanted to mention a couple of these technologies because they represent the kind of technologies that can cost effectively drive deep reductions in CO2 . Figure 2.8 is one example of technology we’re excited about. It’s called “Sage Electrochromics.” It allows you to vary the sunlight coming through a window between 2 percent and 65 percent. By itself, it can reduce the air conditioning load in a commercial building, on average, about 15 percent and peak about 25 percent. And, we’re just scaling manufacturing that. There are a couple hundred installations. I served as the director of financing for efficiency and renewables in the Department of Energy (DOE) for the Clinton Administration, and early DOE support for this technology illustrates the kind of impact that that federal support for research and development of fundamental technology can have. Figure 2.9 illustrates recent work by FERC that suggests that full deployment of distributed response, (basically demand management intelligent grid technology), could allow electricity growth to flatten from 1.7 percent down to

Fig. 2.8 Performance comparison.

21

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Fig. 2.9 FERC Report: Demand Response Potential. Source: FERC Assessment of Demand Response and Advanced Metering 2009, assumptions: smart meters, dynamic pricing default, enabling technologies.

zero. We have two smart grid investments in AlertMe and Tendril, (which I’m on the Board of). Both are growing very rapidly. They allow us to integrate across the meter, with a combination of efficiency and renewables, and drive toward this vision of deep reductions in energy waste through improved controls and enhancing comfort. Let me turn, finally, to CO2 emissions and the debate about whether mandating deep reductions in CO2 emissions will hurt the economy. We modeled the CO2 emissions from buildings under a range of scenarios and policy options (Figure 2.10). Then the question is, Does significant CO2 reduction hurt the economy or not? Well, there is an up-front cost premium associated with greening all of those buildings. However, the direct energy savings resulting from green buildings creates about $350 billion in current value to society. Once you add in other direct benefits, the value creation is about $1 trillion in net present value, if you pursue an aggressive strategy toward green (Figure 2.11). So, although some may argue about climate change, the data are unambiguous: We can achieve very deep reductions in CO2 emissions through thoughtful design, we can do it today, and we can do it cost effectively. In my opinion, those who argue we cannot are essentially saying that America

22 The Economics of Sustainability: The Business Case that Makes Itself∗

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Fig. 2.10 CO2 impact. Source: Greg Kats, Capital E.

Fig. 2.11 Greening=Wealth and Jobs Creation. NPV of net benefits of Business as Usual (BAU) and Green. Source: Greg Kats, Capital E.

has lost its capacity for innovation, that America has lost its capacity to drive through its political systems intelligent choices and the right regulatory structure, that America has lost its will to lead. I believe these pessimists are wrong. I think the investments being made by the federal government and the private

23

Fig. 2.12 G. Kats, Greening our built world: costs, benefits and strategies.

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sector will allow us to achieve deeper reductions and do so more and more cost effectively. Finally, I don’t know if I’ve mentioned this book as an option on a good Christmas present, but I will leave you this slide. Thank you.

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3 Bioenergy in Developing Countries: Lessons Learned in Brazil and Perspectives in Other Countries Jose Goldemberg1 and Suani T. Coelho2 1 Co-Presidents

of the Global Energy Assessment Council, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) & Professor Emeritus of the University of São Paulo, Brazil Brazilian Reference Center on Biomass Electrotechnics and Energy Institute (IEE), University of São Paulo, Brazil 2 University of São Paulo, Brazil

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Abstract Biofuels are one of the few practical alternatives to petroleum derivatives available. The existing commercialized liquid biofuels include bioethanol (to replace gasoline) and biodiesel (to replace diesel oil). Presently, fifty per cent of the gasoline consumed in Brazil has been replaced by sugarcane-ethanol without any subsidies paid by the government. Biodiesel is blended in 5% volume basis to all diesel oil used. The growth of biofuels in Brazil (mainly ethanol produced from sugarcane) to supply an expanding market as well as to export to other countries has raised concerns over its sustainability regarding environmental and social impacts. In particular there are concerns that biofuels production could compete with food production and increase pressure to native forests, such as the Amazonia forest in Brazil. Although such concerns were proven to be ungrounded the Brazilian experience has been considered unique and could be replicated in other countries. Green Energy, 25–39. © 2012 River Publishers. All rights reserved.

26 Bioenergy in Developing Countries The existing barriers to replication of the Brazilian ethanol program in other countries will be discussed as well as certification criteria that have been proposed to protect biofuels producers in industrialized countries.

3.1 Introduction Differently from electricity production, which can be provided from several renewable energy sources (solar, wind and small-hydro), the replacement of fossil fuels in transportation sector through commercialized technologies is possible only with biofuels. Transportation is an integrated and essential element of our modern lifestyle, but all over the world this sector is almost exclusively dependent on petroleum-based fuels and its use resulted in serious burden to the environment at the local, regional, and global level, particularly GHG emissions. In 2006, 23% of all GHG emissions came from the transportation sector (IPCC, 2007) and they represented 27% of total energy consumption in 2008 and are expected to continuously increase. The reason for this increase is directly linked to the growth in automobile ownership, which is shown in Figure 3.1.

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SÃO PAULO CITY

SÃO PAULO STATE

BRAZIL

Fig. 3.1 Growth on vehicle ownership in different regions. Source: GEA, 2011.

3.2 Biofuels Programs in Brazil

27

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For industrialized countries in the OECD, ownership is around 600 vehicles per 1000 inhabitants (close to 800 for the United States) but growing slowly. For developing countries (and former Soviet Union) the number is around 200 but growing rapidly. The drive to increase personal automobile ownership seems to be a characteristic of our times. Biofuels are one of the few practical alternatives to petroleum derivatives available. Other technologies, particularly electrical driven or hybrid vehicles, are still under development and will not be commercially available in large scale before 2020. The existing commercialized liquid biofuels include bioethanol (to replace gasoline) and biodiesel (to replace diesel oil). Presently worldwide biodiesel — 19 billion liters consumed in 2010 (REN21, 2011) — replaces less than 2% of diesel oil consumption in the world; ethanol replaces approximately 3% of the gasoline consumed (IEA, 2011). It is produced through the fermentation of agricultural products, such as sugarcane, corn, and wheat among others. Technically speaking, ethanol from sugarcane is an attractive alternative to gasoline (Goldemberg, Coelho and Guardabassi, 2008). It is produced from agricultural products and does not have the impurities found in petroleum-based products, such as sulphur oxides, lead compounds and particulates which are the main sources of pollution in metropolitan areas. This paper analyses the perspectives of replication of the Brazilian experience in other developing countries, as well as the existing barriers and proposed policies to overcome them. Section 3.2 presents the Brazilian experience with biofuels and bioenergy. Section 3.3 presents environmental aspects of biofuels production in Brazil. Section 3.4 analyses scenarios for biofuels worldwide. Section 3.5 discusses existing barriers to replicate the Brazilian program and sections 3.6 and 3.7 “Discussion” and “Conclusions”.

3.2 Biofuels Programs in Brazil The use of bioenergy in the Brazilian energy matrix has been a reality for a long time. Ethanol production in Brazil was initiated in 1975, in large scale, and it is nowadays economically competitive with gasoline (Goldemberg et al, 2004, Goldemberg, 2009). Brazil is the world’s second largest producer of ethanol (and the largest one using sugar cane ethanol) with 27.5 billion liters in 2010, after US producing ethanol from corn. In the last harvesting season there were 427 mills producing

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28 Bioenergy in Developing Countries ethanol and sugar. The national average for agricultural yield in 2010 was almost 78 (metric) tones of sugarcane per hectare, with some regions reaching 100 tones per hectare. Industrial yield in in the range of 43–55 liters of ethanol per ton of cane, during the last seasons and may reach up to 82 liters of ethanol per ton of cane in some regions (MAPA, 2011). The main advantage of sugarcane ethanol is its positive net energy balance in comparison to corn ethanol or ethanol from other crops. This energy balance is around 8.3 on average, with the best cases showing a balance of 10.2 (Macedo, Seabra and Silva, 2008). Initially ethanol was used in ethanol-dedicated engines or as an octane enhancer, replacing lead and/or MTBE.1 Currently, instead of ethanol-dedicated vehicles, hydrated ethanol is used in flex-fuel vehicles. More than 90 percent of all new cars sold in Brazil are flex-fuel, which can run on any blend of gasoline and/or ethanol, allowing drivers to make price-driven fuel choices (ANFAVEA, 2010). In the domestic market, it replaces 41.5 percent of light duty transportation fuel in the country (DATAGRO, 2010). In addition to the environmental benefits, the biofuels program in Brazil has shown significant benefits in social aspects. For example, the production of ethanol in Brazil was responsible for the creation of more than one million jobs mainly in rural areas and the introduction of mechanical harvesting of green sugarcane has resulted in an upgrading of the technical level of the working force. Bagasse, the residue from sugarcane crushing, is used for combined heat and power generation (cogeneration) in the mills, both for self-consumption and for the sale of electricity surplus to the grid. The installed capacity in 2010 was almost 6,000 MW and, in the 2009/2010 harvesting season, the total of electricity production from sugarcane bagasse was 20,031 GWh; 28.2% of the mills sell their surplus of electricity to the grid. Over the next 10 years, in the best scenario (considering 99 bar-boilers installed in all mills, for a sugarcane production forecast of 1.04 billion tones), electricity production from sugarcane bagasse is expected to increase to 68,730 GWh (CONAB, 2011). Brazil is the world’s second largest producer of biodiesel. By the end of 2010 the production was 2.3 billion liters and there were 68 plants registered 1 Methyl tertiary butyl ether — MTBE is an organic compound with molecular formula (CH ) COCH . 3 3 3

3.3 Environmental Aspects of Biofuels Production

29

with an installed capacity of 6.2 billion liters (ANP, 2011). Soy is the main feedstock used for biodiesel production (counting for 80%), followed by animal fat (almost 13%) and other vegetable oils. The domestic market of biodiesel is defined by the blending mandate of 5% biodiesel (B5) in all diesel sales in the country. In 2010, the use of B5 was anticipated from the scheduled year of 2013 and there was a significant increase in biodiesel production. The large use of soy bean oils is due to its low price, a consequence of the huge national production of soy bean,2 being this oil a byproduct of the soy (protein) production for animal feed.3 The increasing use of animal fat is due to the huge amount of cattle heads in the country (around 200 million heads) mainly to provide meat export to industrialized countries.

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3.3 Environmental Aspects of Biofuels Production The sustainability of biofuels production has been an increasing concern worldwide. In Brazil, harvesting burning practices of sugarcane crops, which result in significant air pollution, are being phased-out, resulting in significant benefits of mechanization.4 Also the availability of the sugarcane tops and leaves5 enables the production of higher surpluses of electricity to be sold to the grid. Despite the high investment costs — each harvesting machines costs about R$ 1 million (US$ 600,000.00) — the operational costs are reduced and productivity gains obtained. Mechanical harvesting can prevent the release of 3.9 thousand tones of particulates (∼28% of emissions from diesel vehicles in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region — SPMR); 45.3 thousand tones of carbon monoxide (12% of diesel emissions in SPMR) and 6.5 thousand tones of hydrocarbons (11% of diesel in SPMR) (SMA, 2011, Coelho et al., 2011). Due to the expansion of sugarcane production in the recent years, there are concerns about the direct impacts of land use change, which were studied 2 In 2009/2010 Brazil produced 68 million (metric) tones of soy from 23.24 million hectares, being the

second world largest soy producer (world production was 258 million tones). Brazil exported 28.35 million tones (MAPA, 2010). 3 Brazil produced in 2009/2010 6 million tones of soy bean oil, being 1.26 million tones for export (MAPA, 2010). 4 Mechanization of green cane harvesting started in 2002 in the state of Sao Paulo due to a state law and nowadays is also being required in several other states mainly for new mills. 5 Tops and leaves correspond to 30% of the sugarcane and are burned in the manual harvesting of sugarcane.

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30 Bioenergy in Developing Countries in NASSAR et al., 2008, NASSAR et al., 2011). These concerns led federal and state governments to adopt policies to limit expansion to areas suitable for this crop. The state of Minas Gerais was the pioneer in this process and launched its economic-environmental zoning in the year 2007. The zoning is based on social, economic and environmental information that shows regional characteristics, potentialities and vulnerabilities. In the state of São Paulo, the agro-environmental zoning, launched in September 2008 (SMA, 2008), was conducted by the State Secretariat for the Environment, based on studies related to soil and climate restrictions, topography, water availability, air quality, existence of protected areas and biodiversity conservation areas, identified by the Biota Program/Fapesp (Joly et al., 2010). Another important step was the agreement between UNICA (Brazilian Association of Sugarcane Agro industry) and the Secretariat for Environment of the State of Sao Paulo (SMA, 2011). The agreement stipulates a set of measures to be followed, anticipating the legal deadlines for the elimination of sugarcane harvest burning and immediately halting burning practices in any sugarcane harvests located in expansion areas. It also targets the protection and recovery of riparian forests and water springs in sugarcane farms, controls erosion and content water runoffs, implements water conservation plans, stipulates the proper management of agrochemicals, and encourages reduction in air pollution and solid wastes from industrial processes. The Federal Government launched, in September 2009, the national agro-ecological zoning for sugarcane and, in 2010, for oil palm. This zoning identified the areas where sugarcane crop expansion can take place. The zoning forbids sugarcane cultivation in 92.5% of national territory, including the Amazon Forest, Pantanal wetlands and other native biomes. According to these studies, there are in Brazil about 650,000 km2 available for sugarcane and 300,000 km2 for palm, without undesirable impacts. Presently, the area used for sugarcane is 96,700 km2 , producing more than 600 million tones (MAPA, 2011). This land availability complies with environmental and productivity requirements, mainly from the increase on cattle density (increase of the number of heads per hectare). On Embrapa Solos website6 many reports, maps and methodological issues can be easily accessed. 6 http://www.cnps.embrapa.br

3.4 Scenarios for Biofuels Worldwide

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Regarding the frequently asked question of competition between biofuels versus food, recent studies show that food and biofuels can be produced in a sustainable way, without any serious impact on food security (Egeskog et al., 2011, Zhang et al., 2010, Coelho et al., 2011).

3.4 Scenarios for Biofuels Worldwide

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An interesting option for sugar producers in developing countries could be the transfer of Brazilian experience to them, benefiting from the lessons learned during more than 30 years of the program (Goldemberg and Moreira, 1999). Worldwide there are 110 countries growing sugarcane for sugar production. In Africa there are 39 countries in these conditions (FAOSTAT, 2009). Such countries could produce sugarcane ethanol not only for internal consumption but also to export to industrialized countries, particularly the European Union. As mentioned above, the present ethanol production from sugarcane in Brazil is 27.5 billion liters per year in an area of 4.5 million hectares. The energy content (heating value) of ethanol is 35% smaller than gasoline but this is compensated to some extent by the fact that ethanol has a higher octane number. As a consequence the ethanol production in Brazil corresponds to “circa” 20 billion liters of gasoline equivalent. Such amount replaces 50% of the gasoline that would otherwise be consumed in the country. Worldwide gasoline consumptions is 1.2 trillion liters therefore ethanol produced in Brazil represents approximately 2% of that. What are the prospects for 2025? According to the International Energy Agency projections gasoline consumption, see Figure 3.2, would grow 46% to 1.7 trillion liters which means a growth of 3%/year. To replace 5% of the 2005

Gasoline consumption (x 1012 liters) Ethanol production (x109 liters) Sugarcane area (x 106 ha)

2010

2025 (5% gasoline replaced) 1.7

2025 (10% gasoline replaced 1.7

27

102

204

5.0

21

42

1.2

Fig. 3.2 Perspectives for gasoline and ethanol in 2025. Source: Leite et al., 2009.

32 Bioenergy in Developing Countries

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world’s gasoline consumption one would need approximately 100 billion liters of ethanol, i.e., 4 times the amount produced presently. The area needed for that would be 21 million hectares if the present productivity (in liters/hectare) remains the same. To replace 10% of the gasoline one would need 42 million hectares. However past experience indicates the productivity of ethanol production has been growing at 3% per year in the last 30 years. If this trend continues until 2025 the area needed to produce 204 billion liters of ethanol in 2025 could be reduced significantly. Interestingly enough, the biofuels mandates adopted by a number of countries around the world to be reached in 2020/22 are approximately 180 billion liters. These numbers include the mandates adopted by the United States which assume that after 2015 ethanol production would be produced by second generation technology in this country. The numbers given above, see Figure 3.3, tell us is that, if expectations on second generation technology would not materialize, ethanol from sugarcane could fill the gap using a sugarcane area not much higher than 20 million hectares.

Fig. 3.3 Average productivity increases in sugarcane and ethanol production in Brazil. Source: Flavely et al., 2011.

3.5 Existing Barriers to Replicate the Brazilian Program Country/region Present gasoline consumption* (billion liters per year) 2007 US 530 European 148 Union China 54 Japan 60 Canada 39 United 26 Kingdom Australia 20 Brazil 25.2 South Africa 11.3 India 13.6 Thailand 7.2 Argentina 5.0 The 5.1 Philippines Total 943.2

33

Potential Present ethanol production** demand resulting (billion liters per from present mandates up to year) 2008) 2020/22 per year 34 136 2.3 8.51 1.9 0.1 0.9 0.03

5.4 1.8 1.95 1.3

0.075 27 0.12 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.08

2.0 19.6 0.9 0.68 0.7 0.25 0.26

67.3

178.7

Fig. 3.4 Present production and potential demand for ethanol. Notes: ∗ IEA Statistics 2009; ∗∗ REN 21. Source: Goldemberg, 2011.

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3.5 Existing Barriers to Replicate the Brazilian Program Until recently, the use of biofuels was limited to local markets (in Brazil and in US) and played a marginal role, see Figure 3.4, in the global energy mix. However, today biofuels have acquired a global dimension. In general, developing countries have a higher potential to produce biomass than industrialized countries due to more favorable climate conditions and lower labor costs. As a result, international trade in biofuels and/or feed stocks from developing to the developed countries is expected to increase with significant positive implications for development (UNCTAD, 2009). It must be noticed that, as mentioned from the Brazilian experience, electricity from residues present a huge opportunity with enormous benefits for the increase of energy access in rural areas in developing countries. The existing “Cogen for Africa Project”, funded by GEF-UNEP-AfDB,7 is an extremely important experience that is being developed in Sub-Saharian countries.8 7 GEF — Global Environmental Facility. UNEP — United Nations Environment Program. AfDB — African

Development Bank. 8 http://www.afrepren.org/cogen/index.htm

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34 Bioenergy in Developing Countries Through the production (and also the use) of biofuels, energy security can be improved, power access enhanced, rural development aided, and both economic development and employment accelerated. In all these regions, land availability is crucial to achieving high production levels. Higher agricultural productivity in biomass crops could allow Africa to supply about 30 percent of world production of biomass (sugarcane agricultural yield is less than 1/3 of the Brazilian9 ) (FAOSTAT, 2009). Asian and African countries have seen substantial developments in their agricultural sector. Government support (adequate financial and policy instruments) allowed improved seeds and fertilizer use and these are some of the reasons behind the success but this should be expanded all over these countries but further improvements are still needed, including an adequate infrastructure for production and distribution. Among the 39 countries already producing sugarcane in Africa, there are many countries in Southern Africa which have large potential for growing biofuel feedstock. Angola, Mozambique, Zambia and Tanzania have low population densities and favorable soils and climate. Yet so far, commercial biofuel production in the region is limited. But this is about to change as many Southern African countries are planning to produce biofuels and have already started to grow feedstock with the purpose of producing ethanol mainly from sugarcane and biodiesel from Jatropha.10 Another issue being discussed is the apparent conflict between small versus large agro-business. Brazilian experience is often seen as a large scale monoculture of sugarcane not allowing the preservation of biodiversity and displaces small farmers. However, in the state of Parana most sugarcane plantation are owned by small farmers organized in cooperatives and results are quite positive, allowing the replication of this model. The only economic issue related to the scale of production is in the industrial phase, where the scale of the mills is indeed an important factor to allow the economic competitiveness of biofuels. There are several myths against biofuels (Goldemberg et al., 2011), most of them due to economic interest against biofuels production but there are studies

9 Authors personal field visit to West Kenya sugar mills in Kenya. 10 Global Network on Energy for Sustainable Development, Bioenergy Theme, 2010. www.gnesd.org

3.5 Existing Barriers to Replicate the Brazilian Program

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answering these questions, showing that biofuels can indeed be produced and used in a sustainable way, as well as electricity from biomass. There are studies (Goldemberg, 2009) showing that Brazilian sugarcane plantation in most regions are implemented following strict environmental rules and adequate environmental legislation, including the preservation and recovery of riparian forest in Sao Paulo State, allowing the adequate preservation and recuperation of local biodiversity. Another difficulty related to the production of biofuels in developing countries and mainly in least developing countries is the program “Everything But Arms” (EBA),11 where selected countries receive huge subsidies to export sugar to industrialized countries. This system of preferences is important to collaborate to the economic development of such countries but it could be expanded to cover the production of biofuels following certification criteria to be adequate and affordable to each country. Still in this context, it must be realized that certification is not a serious problem and can be accomplished by developing countries and even least developing countries if adequate capacity building and funding is provided, together with targets and timetables established to allow these countries to implement these criteria step by step (UNCTAD, 2008). Last but not least, UNCTAD (2008) argues that certification criteria must be used carefully for not being used as non-tariff barrier (in fact a neocolonialism).

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11 In 1968, the first United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) recommended

the creation of a “Generalised System Tariff of Preferences” under which industrialised countries would grant autonomous trade preferences to all developing countries. The European Community was the first to implement a “Generalised Schemes of Tariff Preferences” scheme (the acronym “GSP” sometimes refers to the system as a whole, sometimes to one of the individual schemes) in 1971. Other countries have subsequently established their own GSP schemes that differ both in their product coverage and rules of origin. In order to update its scheme on a regular basis and to adjust it to the changing environment of the multilateral trading system, the EU’s GSP is implemented following a cycle of ten years. The present cycle, which lasts from 2006 to 2015 was adopted in 2004. Traditionally, it has been admitted that the group of least developed countries (LDCs) should receive more favourable treatment than other developing countries. Gradually, market access for products from these countries has been fully liberalised. In February 2001, the Council adopted the so-called “EBA Regulation” (“Everything But Arms”), granting duty-free access to imports of all products from LDCs, except arms and ammunitions, without any quantitative restrictions (with the exception of bananas, sugar and rice for a limited period). EBA was later incorporated into the GSP Council Regulation (EC) No 2501/2001. The Regulation foresees that the special arrangements for LDCs should be maintained for an unlimited period of time and not be subject to the periodic renewal of the Community’s scheme of generalised preferences. Available at http://ec.europa.eu/trade/wideragenda/development/generalised-system-of-preferences/everything-but-arms/

36 Bioenergy in Developing Countries

3.6 Discussion Considering the above issues related to barriers to the replication of the Brazilian biofuels program in other developing countries, the most significant experience to get from the Brazilian lessons learned includes the adequate choice for biofuels crops, through the establishment of an agro-environmental-economic zoning to define the best areas for food and fuel production, ensuring food security and contributing to the rural development (not only through the creation of jobs in rural areas but also through the increase of energy access from sugarcane bagasse, as already being done) (Goldemberg, 2009). Developing countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia have the potential to produce the needed raw material and to produce ethanol and biodiesel, and the exploitation of such resources could be quite fast through technology transfer. However, for this process to be successful two main steps are needed: local adequate incentive policies and foreign financing for the projects and for capacity building where needed. It should be pointed out here that, when discussing the best regions for each crop, Jatropha curcas use in large-scale plantation should be carefully evaluated, because there are not yet enough varieties (to ensure disease and losses) in the plantation, according to The Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation Sato et al., 2009). Recently, a mission of CENBIO (The Brazilian Reference Center on Biomass)12 in Mozambique concluded that with adequate actions one can reach the development of biofuels sustainable production in Africa with technologies already commercialized.

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3.7 Conclusions Many developing countries (mainly in Africa and Asia) have a small internal market but have land and climate adequate for the production of biofuels. The production of biofuels to be exported to industrialized countries could stimulate rural development, generate jobs, increase energy access and reduce poverty. Preconditions for that include the need of capacity building to master the technologies required both in the agricultural and industrial areas. Assistance 12 http://cenbio.iee.usp.br

References

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from other developing countries, such as Brazil or India, which have important activities in sugarcane production (either for sugar or ethanol), could be very fruitful in this case, fostering South-South cooperation. The introduction of a bioethanol activity in developing countries should in all cases be preceded by a proper agronomic ecological zoning to identify producing areas, in order to respond to frequent criticism that biofuels production does not comply with appropriate certification criteria to local conditions. Such arguments can in reality be interpreted as non-tariff protectionism barriers adopted by some countries in Europe and the United States, to protect non-competitive agro-industrial activities in their countries.

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References [1] ANFAVEA (2010) — Official Brazilian Automotive and Autoparts Industry Guide. Brazil Automotive Industry Yearbook, 2010. Available at: http://www.anfavea.com.br/ anuario.html. [2] ANP (2011) NATIONAL PETROLEUM AGENCY, 2011. Available at: http://www.anp. gov.br/?id=472. [3] Coelho, S. T., Agbenyega, O., Agostini, A., Erb, K., Haberl, H., Hoogwijk, M., Lal, R., Lucon, O. S., Masera, O., Moreira, J. R. (2011). Chapter 20: Trade-offs, Land and Water. In Global Energy Assessment. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Cambridge University Press. [4] Coelho S. T., Guardabassi, P., Grisoli, R. (2011 — under publication). Brazilian success story with regard to biofuels and the lessons India can learn from it. In Energy Security Insights.The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), New Delhi. July-September 2011 issue. [5] CONAB (2011) National Company of Food Supply, 2011. Available at: http://www.co nab.gov.br/OlalaCMS/uploads/arquivos/11_05_05_15_45_40_geracao_termo_baixa_ res.pdf. [6] DATAGRO (2010), Datagro Bulletin, 2010. Available at: http://www.datagro.com.br. [7] Egeskog, A. et al. (2011) Integrating bioenergy and food production — A case study of combined ethanol and dairy production in Pontal, Brazil. Energy for Sustainable Development v. 15, p. 8–16, 2011. [8] FAOSTAT. Crops. Sugarcane. Data from 2009. Available at: http://faostat.fao.org/ site/567/DesktopDefault.aspx?PageID=567#ancor. [9] Flavell, R., Cruz, C.H.B., Christie, M., Allen, J., Keller, M., Gilna, P., Kell, D. Moving forward with biofuels. Nature Outlook Biofuels. 23 June 2011, Vol 474, Issue No 7352, S44–S48. [10] GEA (2011). Global Energy Access. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and Cambridge University Press. [11] Goldemberg, J. (2011) Sugarcane ethanol: Strategies to a successful program, In Advanced Biofuels & Bioproducts. James W. Lee (ed), Springer.

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38 Bioenergy in Developing Countries [12] Goldemberg, J., La Rovere, E. L., Coelho, S. T., Simões, A. F., Guardabassi, P., Grisoli, R., Moreno, M. (2011) Bioenergy Study Theme. Final Report. GNESD — Global Network for Sustainable Development. Available at www.gnesd.org (under development). [13] Goldemberg, J. (2009). The Brazilian Experience with Biofuels. Innovations Journal., 4, pp. 91–107. [14] Goldemberg, J., Coelho, S. T., Guardabassi, P. (2008). The sustainability of ethanol production from sugarcane. Energy Policy, 36, pp. 2086–2097. [15] Goldemberg, J., Coelho, S. T., Nastari, P. M., and Lucon, O. d. (2004). Ethanol learning curve — the Brazilian experience. Biomass and Bioenergy, 26, pp. 301–304. [16] Goldemberg, J., and Moreira, J. R. (1999). The alcohol program. Energy Policy, 27, pp. 229–245. [17] IEA (2011). International Energy Agency. World Energy Statistics. Paris. Available at http://www.iea.org/stats/index.asp. [18] IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Fourth Assessment. Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. [19] IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (R. a. Pachauri, Ed.) Geneve, Switzerland. [20] Joly, C. A., Rodrigues, R. R., Metzger, J. P., Haddad, C. F., Verdade, L. M., Oliveira, M. C. (2010). Biodiversity Conservation Research, Training, and Policy in São Paulo. Science, 328, pp. 1358–1359. [21] Leite, R.C.C., Leal, M.R.L.V., Cortez, L.A.B;. Griffin, W.M., Scandiffio, M.I.G. (2009) Can Brazil replace 5% of the 2025 gasoline world demand with ethanol? Science. V. 34/5 (655–661). [22] Macedo, I. C., Seabra, J. E., Silva, J. E. (2008). Green house gases emissions in the production and use of ethanol from sugarcane in Brazil: The 2005/2006 averages and a prediction for 2020. Biomass and Bioenergy, 32, pp. 582–595. [23] MAPA (2011) Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply. Sugarcane, 2011. Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Brasília. Available at: http://www.agricultura.gov.br/vegetal/estatisticas. [24] MAPA (2010). Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply. Anuário Estatístico da Bioenergia. Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Brasília. [25] Nassar, A. M., Rudorff, B. F., Antoniazzi, L. B., Aguiar, D. A., Bacchi, M. R., & Adami, M. (2008). Prospects of the sugarcane expansion in Brazil: impacts on direct and indirect land use changes. In P. Zuurbier, & J. van de Vooren (Eds.), Sugarcane ethanol — Contributions to climate change mitigation and environment (pp. 63–93). Wageningen Academic Publishers. [26] Nassar, A M, Harfuch, L., Bachion, LC and Moreira, M.R., (2011). Biofuels and land-use changes: Searching for the top model. Focus. 1: 224–232. (doi: 10.1098/rsfs.2010.0043). [27] REN21 (2011). Renewables 2011 Global Status Report. Available at: http://www.ren21. net/REN21Activities/Publications/GlobalStatusReport/GSR2011/tabid/56142/Default. aspx. [28] Sato, M. et al. (2009) A Cultura do Pinhão-Manso (JATROPHA CURCAS L.): Uso para fins combustíveis e descrição agronômica. EMBRAPA. Revista Varia Scientia v. 07, n. 13, p. 47–62, 2009. Available at http://e-revista.unioeste.br/index.php/variascientia/ article/download/2523/1947.

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[29] SMA (2011) The Green Ethanol Program Website, São Paulo State Environment Secretariat, Brazil, http://homologa.ambiente.sp.gov.br/etanolverde/english.asp. [30] SMA (2008). Zoneamento Agroambiental. Retrieved March 12, 2011, from http://www.ambiente.sp.gov.br/etanolverde/zoneamentoAgroambiental.php. [31] Somerville, C., Youngs, H. et al. (2010). Feedstocks for Lignocellulosic Biofuels. Science. 13 August 2010. Vol. 329 no. 5993 pp. 790–792. [32] UNCTAD. (2009). The Biofuels Market: Current Situation and Alternative Scenarios. Available at http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/ditcbcc20091_en.pdf. [33] UNCTAD (2008). Making Certification Work for Sustainable Development: The Case of Biofuels. Available at http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/ditcted20081_en.pdf. [34] Zhang, Z., Lohr, L., Escalante, C., & Wetzstein, M. (2010). Food versus fuel: What do prices tell us? Energy Policy, 38, pp. 445–451.

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4 Technical Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut

Nicole C. McDonald1 , Ha T Nguyen2 , and Joshua M. Pearce3 1 School

of Environmental Studies, Kingston, Queen’s University, Canada of Geography and Environment, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts 02215, USA 3 Department of Materials Science & Engineering and Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI 49931, USA 2 Department

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Abstract All twenty-five communities in Nunavut are dependent on the use of imported diesel fuel for their electricity, which results in environmental, social and economic problems. This chapter critically analyzes the technical viability of renewable energy technologies (RETs) to mitigate some of the damage done by diesel in three case-study communities in Nunavut: Iqaluit, Rankin Inlet, and Resolute Bay. RETs are screened for available data, potential energy output and economic impacts of RET systems of equivalent peak power to current diesel plants are determined using numerical simulation. These impacts are quantified for the RET system by: (i) percent of diesel generated energy saved, (ii) amount of diesel fuel reduced, (iii) the economic savings from unused diesel fuel, and (iv) greenhouse gas emission reduction potential. The results are then discussed and conclusions are drawn about the specific RET viability of solar photovoltaic and wind power systems in Nunavut.

Green Energy, 41–73. © 2012 River Publishers. All rights reserved.

42 Technical Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut Keywords: Nunavut; renewable energy; solar power; photovoltaic; wind power; microgrids.

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4.1 Introduction Currently all twenty-five communities in the most desolate Canadian territory of Nunavut are overwhelmingly dependent on the use of imported diesel fuel for their electricity [1,2]. This lack of energy self-sufficiency is a contributing factor in the limitations of the regions social and economic prosperity and is directly responsible for 20% of the territory’s annual budget [1]. Unfortunately, there are a number of environmental, social and economic problems associated with diesel use. Communities face degradation of their lands, harm to their local wildlife, as well as reduced air quality [3,4]. Additionally, the Government of Nunavut (GN) spends about 20% of its annual budget on energy, which limits its ability to address other essential infrastructure needs, including education [5,6], health [7] and nutrition [8]. Though there has been little progress in reducing diesel dependency in Nunavut communities, other parts of Canada have joined the rest of the global community [9] to begin to take advantage of the economic and environmental benefits of renewable and appropriate energy sources [10].1 In 2009, Ontario enacted the Green Energy and Green Economy Act, which enabled the Ontario Power Authority to launch the FIT (feed-in tariff) program; a program aimed at encouraging the development of renewable energy across the province [11–13]. These renewable energy sources, which include solar photovoltaic (PV) systems, wind turbines, hydroelectric power, and wasteto-energy, aim to meet environmental, cultural and economic resource constraints of any localized community [14]; critical issues that must be addressed in many Nunavut communities.2 Consequently, renewable energy technologies (RETs) have become a worthwhile potential energy resource option for Nunavut communities [1]. Unlike the more temperate parts of Canada, Nunavut is an extreme environment regularly recording temperatures below −30◦ C and experiencing months of 24 hour darkness followed by months of 24 hours sunlight [15]. Thus it 1 Although it should be noted that Canada’s emissions have continued to steadily increase. See Human

Activity and the Environment (16-201-X). 2 Even in Ontario, however, the Green Energy Act does not adequately address remote communities.

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is necessary to determine what RETs are an appropriate technology for the region [16]. This chapter critically analyzes the technical viability of RETs in three case study communities in Nunavut: Iqaluit, Rankin Inlet, and Resolute Bay. First, the RETs are screened for available data in the region. Then the potential energy output of wind and PV plants of equivalent peak power to the current diesel plants is determined using numerical simulation for a number of data sets. Secondly, the energy impact and economic impact are determined for each technology in the three case study areas. These values are quantified by: (i) percent of diesel generated energy saved (kWh) by the RET system, (ii) the amount of diesel fuel reduced (litres) by the RET system, (iii) the economic savings from unused diesel fuel, and (iv) the greenhouse gas emission reduction potential. The results are then discussed and conclusions are drawn about the technical viability of solar and wind energy systems in Nunavut.

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4.2 Background Nunavut is one of three territories in Canada, and was established relatively recently by the Nunavut Land Claims Act in 1999. The territory covers about 2 million square kilometers of land, one fifth of Canada’s landmass; and most of this land is located North of 60◦ [17]. Figure 4.1 shows a map of Nunavut with an inset of the location of Nunavut in relation to the rest of Canada. Currently Nunavut’s population is about 33,220 and is spread across twenty-five communities, ranging in size from 150 to 7,000 people [18, 19]. The communities are all remote, and rest upon complex terrain; as a result there are no roads or rail connecting the communities [20]. Therefore, everything entering or leaving the territory including people, food, and fuel, depends on planes and sealift3 [21]. Within Nunavut, each community is very different culturally, geographically, and economically due to their locations. For example, many communities in Nunavut experience different degrees of “light” and “dark” seasons, as well as varying average temperatures [22]. Because communities in Nunavut are spread out geographically, it is essential that case study communities 3 Sealift in this context, refers to the re-supply of isolated communities with fuel, building materials,

foodstuffs, vehicles and other goods. This is the most common method used in the Canadian Arctic and Nunavut due to the lower cost and the larger capacity of ships and barges over aircraft. An annual occurrence in the Arctic, the sealift is usually performed between July and October, when the occurrence of sea is ice free.

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44 Technical Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut

Fig. 4.1 Map of Nunavut.

are located across the difference regions and latitudes. Accordingly, Iqaluit,4 Rankin Inlet and Resolute Bay were chosen as can be seen in Figure 4.1. In 4 It should be noted that Iqaluit is much larger and more accessible with better technical and human resources

than other communities and is chosen here as a trajectory.

4.2 Background

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addition to varying geographic locations, these communities also experiences varying weather and seasonal variations [17].

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4.2.1 Current Electricity Systems in Nunavut Currently all twenty-five communities in Nunavut are overwhelmingly dependent on the use of expensive imported diesel fuel for their electricity. A sole company, Qulliq Energy Corporation (QEC), an agency of the GN [23], provides this electricity. Altogether, the QEC manages twenty-seven diesel plants spread across the territory, none of which are interconnected due to the remote nature of the territory [23]. Thus all communities operate as microgrids. The territory currently has an installed capacity of 54.3 MW of dieselgenerated electricity, and uses over 150 million litres of diesel each year in order to provide the territory with energy [24,25]. However, the diesel plants in Nunavut are very inefficient, and convert only 35% of the embodied energy in the fuel into electricity [2]. As a result, the majority of the energy produced by the generators is wasted as most of the communities do not take advantage of the ‘waste heat’ for cogeneration [2], which would significantly improve this conversion efficiency. This opportunity is being partially capitalized on with some plants installing waste heat recovery systems, although this initiative is still in the early stages of implementation [1]. Fuel supply in Nunavut is unique in that all fuel is shipped to communities by sea tankers since there are no roads or rail connecting the territory to other Canadian regions [2]. This poses increased environmental concerns to communities, including the possibility of fuel spills, which are expected to climb according to the GN [1]. Additionally, because diesel generated energy produces greenhouse gases and is an emission-intensive and polluting energy source. The greenhouse gas emissions result in further climate destabilization, which is negatively impacting Nunavut, and there are increased air quality impacts on the communities from the other diesel-generated emissions [26]. Finally, diesel generated electricity is extremely expensive in Nunavut compared to other parts of Canada [27]. In the 2007 Nunavut Energy Strategy, the GN (GN) estimated that it spent about 20% of the territory’s annual budget on energy [1]. This trend continued, and in 2009–2010 the GN spent about $120 M in order to buy 157 M litres of fuel. The GN estimates that in 2010– 2011, the cost will increase to $136 M for diesel fuel, and that the current

46 Technical Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut purchasing price is likely to rise in the future [25]. There are many reasons for the high cost of energy production in Nunavut, namely high diesel fuel prices, inefficient generators, high transportation costs, and lack of integrated energy systems [25]. Combined these factors translate to very high electricity rates, ranging from 52¢/kWh in Iqaluit to 103¢/kWh in Kugaruuk. Comparatively, Ontario electricity rates are only about 11¢/kWh [27].5 Because these rates can be intrusively high, the GN has developed enormous subsidies for both residential and commercial electricity users, and in the 2007–2008 fiscal year it spent $40.4 M on energy subsidies [25]. Utilizing this form of electricity subsidy is well known to discourage energy conservation [25,28] and thus a positive feedback loop is in place further driving up energy costs for the government.

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4.2.2 Renewable Energy Technologies (RETs) Renewable energy technologies have been developed across the world in all sorts of environments; but recently Canada’s North has also begun to embrace the possibility of integrating RETs into their remote communities [1]. In 1987, Nunavut installed its first RET system, a wind turbine, in Cambridge Bay [29]. Now, as new technologies emerge, there exists many RET systems that could provide Nunavut with renewable energy, and ultimately reduce the territory’s dependence on diesel use [1]. For example, recently a vertical wind turbine, designed “to be simple and durable for Northern climates”, was introduced at an Iqaluit trade show [30]. In addition, work is continuing to investigate the painting of turbines black to slough off icing. These new technologies are especially promising in Nunavut, given the substantial natural resources that exist in the territory, including annual solar resources and wind resources.6 Though there are many different RETs that could be used in Nunavut, this chapter will assess the feasibility of a solar photovoltaic (PV) plant and wind turbine plant in three case study Nunavut communities. Hydropower is also a viable solution to the territory’s diesel dependency; however, there is a lack 5 It is instructive to note that these rates compare to the feed in tariff rates provided by the Ontario Green

Energy Act. For example, small residential solar PV systems in Ontario is currently 80.2¢/kWh and 44.3¢/kWh for MW scale-community systems (OPA, 2009). 6 It should be noted that experimental systems are ill-advised in remote communities without backup generation. Many of the past attempts in Nunavut and elsewhere with experimental designs have failed. However, pilot projects that are successful can be scaled up. There have been advances in wind for remote communities, notably many of successful projects in Alaska, Antarctica and Australia, among others (see Renewable Energy Alaska Project (REAP-http://alaskarenewableenergy.org/ for many such examples).

4.2 Background

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of complete available data that is necessary to simulate a hydropower plant in the given communities in detail [1,2].7 4.2.2.1 Solar Energy in Nunavut

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Solar photovoltaic cells, which convert sunlight directly into electricity, have been established as a sustainable energy source for some time [31]. In Nunavut there is a single installed small-scale solar PV array located on the south-facing facade of the Arctic College in Iqaluit [32] as seen in Figure 4.2. Mounting the PV on a vertical surface, although not at the optimal angle for solar collection of a clean surface has the advantage of having no snow related losses and gaining substantial solar flux from snow albedo [33]. The PV system is grid-connected and has been functional since 1995 [32]. Since being installed, the array is estimated to have produced 2, 016 ± 200 kWh annually, with efficiencies ranging from 7% to 11%, depending on the time of year and sunlight conditions [32].

Fig. 4.2 Solar Photovoltaic Array on south-facing wall of the Arctic College in Iqaluit, Nunavut. 7 The QEC has undertaken and completed pre-feasibility studies for several potential hydro-electric gener-

ation sites and has initiated studies, which focus on a single storage site at Qikiqgijaarvik and supporting run-of-the-river facilities at Akulikutaq and/or Tungatalik and Qairulituq. If the studies are positive, licences are approved, and funding is available, the QEC anticipates making Nunavut’s first hydroelectric generation facility operational by 2012. QEC plans, at a later stage, to investigate the feasibility of hydro-generation projects in communities in the Kivalliq and Kitikmeot.

48 Technical Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut Though there have not been any large-scale solar PV systems installed in Nunavut, there have been projects and programs that have begun to assess the technical potential of PV in the North, including the Photovoltaics for the North Program [34]. This program examined the barriers of increasing the PV market in Northern Canada [35] and showed that long-term deployment of solar PV in the community diesel grid would have the greatest potential [34]. In addition, projects including Northern “adaptation kits” for PV systems have been developed through the Photovoltaics for the North Program, which have helped to accelerate the removal of snow and ice build up on commercially available PV modules [34,36]. Essentially, these adaptation kits consist of a black absorber foil and Lexan back cover that are bonded to the rear of the panel, which combined collect the solar radiation that is incident on the rear panel and raise the temperature of the panel, ultimately increasing snow and ice removal [37].

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4.2.2.2 Wind Energy in Nunavut Wind energy is produced by harnessing the kinetic energy of the wind using turbines, and converting it to electricity. Accordingly, there is a cubic relationship between wind speed and the power produced by wind turbines. Though there is little installed wind capacity in Nunavut, there have been major technological advances made to decrease cold weather and icing problems [38]. For instance, Yukon Energy modified wind turbines in Whitehorse to account for the cold climate and rime icing by fitting them with StaClean coated blades and edge blade heaters [39].8 As a result, this has made wind power a more viable option for Northern climates [40]. Currently, there exist very few wind turbine projects in Nunavut, two turbines in Kugluktuk, one turbine in Rankin Inlet and another turbine in Cambridge Bay [41]. However, the turbines in Kugluktuk and Cambridge Bay are no longer in service [41]. The remaining turbine in Rankin Inlet still functions as seen in Figure 4.3, but does not provide any substantial electricity 8 In the Yukon the turbine modifications were made for rime icing (a coating of tiny, white, granular ice

particles caused by the rapid freezing of supercooled water droplets on impact with the turbine blades) problems as a result of the high elevations and moisture where these particular turbines operate. There is not evidence that this is necessarily a common problem simply because a community is in the Arctic. Other modifications such as high strength steel and other low temperature modifications also need to be looked at carefully.

4.2 Background

49

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Fig. 4.3 Wind Turbine in Rankin Inlet, Nunavut.

to the Rankin Inlet power grid [2,42]. The lack of wind power in the North can be attributed to the many challenges of using such a technology, including a lack of wind turbine foundations, operation of control and brake systems and a lack of maintenance workers [42]. Additionally, wind power depends on wind strength, which makes this type of energy source sometimes unreliable and intermittent in regions where wind speed varies [43]. This, however, is not a major problem regardless of penetration as long as suitable storage or back up generation is available. 4.2.2.3 Hydropower in Nunavut Hydroelectricity is produced by capturing the energy created from the flow of water running through the blades of a turbine. An appropriate use of

50 Technical Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut hydropower in Nunavut is a run-of-river system, since these systems use little or no storage and require low-head9 water flow [44]. Currently in Nunavut there are no installed hydropower systems; however, in the last decade QEC has begun exploring a potential hydropower plant near Iqaluit, which would provide the community with all of its electrical power needs [45]. However, one of the greatest barriers to hydropower in Nunavut is the potential impact on the surrounding wilderness, and more importantly wildlife [46]. For this reason, hydropower projects must pass a number of environmental assessments to ensure that there will be no impact to the surrounding environment [46]. Though hydropower is a viable option for Nunavut, there is a lack of available solid measured data, which is necessary to simulate hydropower plants. These measurements include the gross head, residual flow, and design flow. However, given the limited government resources available to perform hydropower surveys, this data has not been gathered for most Nunavut communities, including Rankin Inlet and Resolute Bay, though some measurements have been made for sites surrounding Iqaluit. Because this data is unavailable,10 this chapter will not include a technical or economic assessment of hydropower plants for the three Nunavut case study communities. However, it is essential that a hydropower portfolio be developed for Nunavut in the future in order to aid in future assessments of hydropower potential.

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4.2.2.4 Other RETs in Nunavut While it is evident from Table 4.9 that wind and solar PV systems could provide noticeable diesel electricity savings, diesel fuel savings, economic and emissions savings, it is important to recognize that there are other RETs that could be successful in Nunavut as well. These technologies include tidal power, waste-to-energy and geothermal. 9 Head is the vertical distance over which water flows as it moves from a higher area to a lower area

(CanmetEnergy, 2005). 10 There has been numerous studies of hydro potential all over Canada, including the North.

Much of this data has been collected by Environment Canada (HYDAT) and NRCan. They are estimates in many cases, and those wishing to build some preliminary estimates are referred to http//:www.retscreen.net/fichier.php/611/retscreen_table7_e.xls and http://www.ec.gc.ca/rhc-wsc/ default.asp?lang=En&n=9018B5EC-1

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Tidal power plants already exist in other Northern states, including one system in Kislo Gubskaya, Russia [47], which has a capacity of 1.5 MW [47]. In Canada, the federal government has begun to work on an atlas that outlines possible locations for tidal power plants. Among these locations are a number of Nunavut communities, including Frobisher Bay, which boasts one of the highest tides in the world of about 35 feet [48]. Waste-to-energy is also a viable option for Nunavut communities; especially in some of the larger communities since waste generally accumulates in the local dumps rather than being removed from the community [49]. There are currently a number of waste-to-energy plants across the world, including some in cold regions such as Norway, which can produce upwards of 11.9 MW [50]. The application of these systems in foreign cold climate regions could be utilized in Northern Canada. Finally, geothermal, a technology already successful in many Arctic and sub-Arctic regions including Russia and Iceland could also be developed in Nunavut [51]. Recently, a project was announced in the Northwest Territories, which would develop a demonstration project in Ft. Liard able to provide 600 residents with heat and power [52]. The territory is hopeful that this project can be used as a model for future geothermal projects in Northern Canadian communities [52]. Like hydropower, these technologies could prove to be successful in Nunavut; however because they lack resource data, and have not been adequately tested in Northern communities, they will not be included in the technical or economic assessments performed in this chapter. Nonetheless, as these technologies are further developed for Arctic conditions, they could be a very viable option for Nunavut. This is especially true for tidal energy given that the territory has some of the highest tides in the world.

4.3 Methodology To determine the technical viability of RET plants in Nunavut, three case study communities were chosen because of their geographic disparity and differential access to solar and wind energy, they include: Iqaluit, Rankin Inlet and Resolute Bay. These specific communities were chosen because they adequately represent the varying geographical location and size, and community population of all of Nunavut’s communities.

52 Technical Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut Upon choosing the communities, wind and solar resource maps were developed for Nunavut followed by an analysis of the technical viability of a solar photovoltaic plant and wind turbine plant using different datasets for each technology in RETScreen [53], a free renewable technology numerical simulation program developed by Natural Resources Canada. For solar energy, datasets were used from NASA and CERES climate databases, whereas wind energy simulations employed NASA, CERES and Canadian Wind Atlas (CWA) datasets. Upon completing the renewable energy simulations in RETScreen, it was possible to determine the range of potential renewable energy output for each community for both technologies, as well as the potential fuel, energy, economic, and GHG emissions savings.

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4.3.1 RETScreen Renewable Energy Simulations The RETScreen simulations all followed a specific criterion to ensure uniformity and accuracy. Each RET system was designed to have an equivalent potential power capacity as the current diesel plant in the community. This would allow for following a previously developed dispatch strategy for hybrid systems consisting of an RET and a combined heat and power source [54]. This dispatch strategy is chosen because a relatively small storage capacity enables a RET to match a load when hybridized to an equivalent peak power CHP system such as the existing diesel generators in Nunavut. Therefore, the systems designed in RETScreen are about 15 MW (Iqaluit), 5.5 MW (Rankin Inlet), and 1.9 MW (Resolute Bay). The first dataset used in RETScreen was the default data provided by NASA. It includes climatic parameters such as daily horizontal solar radiation, mean wind speed and mean temperature between 1983 and 2005 over a global grid of 1 degree or 111 km in resolution [55]. Ground measurements and interpolations between 4,700 stations were used [55]. However, solar and wind datasets available from the Canadian Wind Atlas and Environment Canada CERES (Canadien des Energies Renouvelables Eolienne et Solaire). The Environment Canada CERES solar data is generated based on 1974–1993 monthly mean daily global insolation data from 144 meteorological stations across Canada [56]. Insolation values were interpolated over the country in a regular grid of 300 arc seconds ∼10 km using thin-plate

4.3 Methodology

53

smoothing splines as demonstrated in the ANUSPLIN model [56]. Using this data a resource map was developed for the solar resources in Nunavut, as seen in Figure 4a. The Canadian Wind Atlas data was produced by running the statisticaldynamical downscaling method, which involves the following steps: (i) wind climate classification, (ii) mesoscale simulations, (iii) statistical postprocessing, and (iv) microscale modeling (Canadian Wind Energy Atlas, 2003). Mesoscale simulations used the Mesoscale Compressible Community model over 5 km resolution tiles at 60 N latitude [57]. Mean annual and monthly wind speed and power were statistically output for three elevations: 30 m, 50 m and 80 m in MID/ MIF arcGIS-compatible files [57]. The 50 m level was chosen to develop a wind map illustration, as seen in Figure 4b. Solar Photovoltaic Plant. Each solar PV plant was designed using solar modules almost identical to those currently used in Iqaluit, Nunavut — Shell mono-silicon SM55, which have a rated capacity of 55 W.11 The specific number of units in the system varies according to the community’s original installed diesel capacity. In addition, RETScreen also requires a number of inputs, including slope, azimuth angle, miscellaneous PV array losses, and inverter capacity, efficiency and losses. These values are described in greater detail below, and summarized in Table 4.1. The slope of the panels corresponds to the angle between the PV array and the horizontal, and the optimal angle values for the three systems were

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Table 4.1. Solar Photovoltaic Plant Input Parameters. Solar Photovoltaic Plant

Iqaluit

Rankin Inlet

Resolute Bay

Type and Model Number of Units and Capacity (kW) Slope (◦ ) Azimuth (◦ ) Misc. Losses (%) Inverter Capacity (kW) Inverter Efficiencies (%) Inverter Losses (%)

Shell mono-Si SM55 290,000 units 15,900

Shell mono-Si SM55 100,000 units 5,500

Shell mono-Si SM55 34,000 units 1,870

59 0 10 16,500 85 0

56 0 10 6,000 85 0

64 0 10 2,000 85 0

11 It should be pointed out that this is an extremely conservative estimate as there have been significant

improvements in PV modules since this time. However, in order to take advantage of high quality performance data these systems were used here.

54 Technical Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut determined using a sensitivity analysis without accounting for snow-related losses. The azimuth angle refers to the angle between the horizontal projection of the normal to the surface and the local meridian and was sent to 0◦ . Miscellaneous losses occur in every system due to shading from dirt or snow, and were set to 10% based on work on the solar PV project at the Arctic College in Iqaluit, Nunavut [58]. The tilt angles of the PV were all relatively high due to the northern latitude of the case studies and following building code estimates of snow covering on glass these losses would be minimal.12 The inverter converts the produced DC power from the PV system to AC power needed by the loads. The inverter efficiency value used in a very similar system in Iqaluit, Nunavut was 85% therefore the three case study systems have been developed using this very conservative value [59]. The inverter capacity refers to the nominal output of the system in kW AC, and is determined based on the size and capacity of the overall system. Finally, inverter losses include other power conditioning losses, such as those incurred in DC-DC converters or in step-up transformers; usually this value is 0% [61].

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Wind Turbine Plant. The three wind turbine plants are composed of Nordex N50-50 m wind turbines, a similar system is in use in Whitehorse, NWT [60]. These systems were again chosen because of the potential to obtain quality performance data, although it is recognized that more modern turbines would be used in a deployment. Depending on the size of the plant and the capacity required by the community, each system is composed of a differing number of units. These values, as well as wind measurements and losses are further explained below and summarized in Table 4.2. The wind measurement refers to the height from the ground that the annual wind speed is measured. Generally this measurement ranges from 3 to 100 m; however, the most common value is 10 m and was used here [62]. The wind shear coefficient is the rate at which the wind speed varies at different heights from the ground. In general, the coefficient for a smooth terrain will be much lower than that of a terrain that contains large obstacles [62]. Accordingly, since Iqaluit is located in rough terrain a coefficient of 0.25 is used, while a coefficient of 0.15 is used in Rankin Inlet, where the terrain is 12 Extensive research is being done by the Queen’s University Applied Sustainability Research group to

determine the losses associated with snow cover on solar panels (Andrews and Pearce, 2011).

4.3 Methodology

55

Table 4.2. Wind Turbine Plant Input Parameters. Wind Turbine Plant

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Type and Model Number of Units and Capacity Wind Measured at (m) Wind Shear Coefficient Array Losses (%) Airfoil Losses (%) Misc. Losses (%) Availability (%)

Iqaluit

Rankin Inlet

Resolute Bay

Nordex N50 50 m 19 units 15,200 10 0.25 10 10 4 90

Nordex N50 50 m 7 units 5,400 10 0.15 10 10 4 90

Nordex N54 50 m 2 units 2,000 10 0.2 8 10 4 90

smooth and tundra-like. Because the terrain in Resolute Bay is a combination of smooth and rough, a value of 0.20 was used. Array losses are a result of the interaction between wind turbines in a wind farm, and can be impacted by the turbine spacing, orientation, site characteristics and topography; therefore, if a single wind turbine is installed, the array losses will be 0%. The systems designed in this chapter are composed of a small number of wind turbines therefore the values used range from 8 to 10% [62]. The airfoil losses for a wind turbine plant are commonly referred to as the icing losses — losses incurred from build-up on the blades of bugs or ice [62]. Values generally range between 0 to 10% depending on the environment where the system is installed. For Nunavut communities, the airfoil losses are likely high and the maximum used because of the cold climate and likely ice build-up on the wind turbine blades.13 Miscellaneous losses occur because of the system starting and stopping, off-yaw operation, high wind and cut-outs from wind gusts; average values range from 2 to 6% [62]. Because most Nunavut communities experience somewhat high wind gusts [63], a value of 4% was used in the simulations. Finally, the availability of the system is the percentage of time that the system is running. The availability of a system will decrease with scheduled maintenance, wind turbine failures and station and utility outages. In the past, wind turbines in Nunavut have been unpredictable and have frequently

13 There is no direct evidence to suggest just because it is cold there will necessarily be icing as there needs

to be humidity as well. This loss again was set at the highest level to obtain a conservative value for energy generation.

56 Technical Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut experienced downtime because of maintenance and failures; therefore a value of 90% was used in the simulations [41].14 4.3.2 Energy Savings, Diesel Fuel Savings, Economic Savings and GHG Savings Using the results generated in RETScreen, the potential energy output of the RET system was determined for each community.15 Combined with data for the total electricity used in each community, obtained from the GN, the overall percent of diesel generated kWh saved (P) in a year can be determined using: P = [(ERE ) × (100)]/[ET ] [%]

(4.1)

Where ERE is the annual potential energy output of the RET system in a community in kWh, and ET is the total electricity used in a given community in kWh, obtained from the GN database. Furthermore, the amount of diesel fuel saved using a RET system can be determined from: DS = (ERE )/(3.6 kWh) [L]

(4.2)

Where ERE is the potential energy output of the RET system in a community in kWh, and 3.6 kWh is the electrical energy equivalent of each litre of diesel burned in Nunavut [2]. The economic savings (S) produced from unused diesel fuel can be determined using: S = (DS ) × ($0.76) [$CAD]

(4.3)

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Where S is the economic savings in dollars and $0.76 is the purchasing price of diesel fuel in 2009–2010 [25].16 14 Again, this is a very conservative assumption. These are different turbine technologies and past experience

with downtimes cannot necessarily be extrapolated as there are several variables including a learning curve, which can significantly change the outcomes. 15 For high-penetration system systems described here (where installed capacity of the RET exceeds minimum loads) there will be many hours when more power is available from the RET system than can be used by the community. For systems this size, there would normally be very significant interactions with the diesel generators, changing their operating curves. However, in this case the dispatch strategy designed by Nosrat and Pearce (2011) is used, which allows for storage. A more detailed study is needed to optimize the storage size and find the percentages of used vs dumped electricity and heat. 16 All of the economic savings calculated here should be viewed as estimates. Clearly there is variance in the cost of diesel fuel both geographically and temporally.

4.4 Results

57

Finally, the greenhouse gas emissions savings were calculated by: GHG = (DS ) × (2.6391)[kg of CO2 eq]

(4.4)

Where GHG is the greenhouse gas emissions savings in kg of CO2 equivalent and 2.6391 is the conversion factor for diesel fuel to greenhouse gas emissions [64].

4.4 Results Firstly, solar and wind resource maps, as seen in Figures 4a and 4b, were created following Section 4.3.1. From Figures 4a and 4b, it is evident that a number of communities can be considered to have high solar or wind resources, which make them a successful candidate for introducing RETs. This is further supported by the results of the RETs simulations, which compare the potential energy output of the RET systems to the current diesel electricity use in the community, and consequently show the diesel energy savings, diesel fuel savings, economic, and emissions savings following equations 1–4. Table 4.9 provides a summary of these savings.

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Iqaluit The current diesel plant capacity in Iqaluit is 15 MW and produced a total of 54,640,500 kWh in 2009–2010. A solar PV and wind plant of equivalent capacity were designed using RETScreen. First, using two sets of solar data, NASA and CERES, the annual potential solar energy output was found to be 18,179,900 kWh and 20,539,500 kWh respectively. The monthly kWh produced compared to the electricity use of the community in 2009–2010 is shown in Figure 4.5. In addition the percent of the load that can be met with the PV system is shown in Table 4.3 for the NASA and CERES data. Similar to solar energy, two data sets, NASA and CERES, were used to determine the potential energy output of an equivalently sized wind system. The system using NASA wind energy data was found to provide 26,721,000 kWh, while the system using CERES data was found to provide 26,991,000 kWh. Figure 4.6 is a comparison the monthly electricity outputs of the two systems to the actual electricity use of the community in 2009–2010. The percentage of the load for the two data sets is shown in Table 4.4.

58 Technical Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut

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Fig. 4a Solar Resource Map of Nunavut.

Figure From the total electricity used by the community and the potential electricity outputs of the RET systems, the overall percent of kWh saved in a year was found to be between 33–38% for the solar PV plant and between 46–49% for the wind turbine plant.17 Additionally, the diesel fuel savings was found to between 5,050,000 and 5,700,000 litres using a solar PV system and 17 It is important to note that these percentages are for the “zero dumping” case, where all of the RET

generated electricity is used. These figures give a wide view of the potential for RETs in Nunavut. A far more detailed temporal analysis and full systems designs and optimizations are necessary to provide complete RET percentages.

4.4 Results

59

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Fig. 4b Wind Resource Map of Nunavut.

between 7,420,000 and 7,500,000 litres using a wind system. The economic savings provided from not purchasing Ds was found to be between $3.8 M and $4.3 M for solar PV and around $5.6 M for wind. Finally, GHG savings for the two systems was found to be between 13.3 M and 15 M kg CO2 equivalent and 19.6 M and 19.8 M kg CO2 equivalent for solar and wind respectively. Rankin Inlet The current diesel system in Rankin Inlet has a capacity of about 5,500 MW, and produced 14,877,000 kWh in 2009–2010. Solar PV and wind systems of equivalent capacity were designed in RETScreen using available NASA data.

60 Technical Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut

Fig. 4.5 Potential Solar Electricity Output versus Current Diesel Electricity Use for Iqaluit.

Table 4.3. Potential Solar Electricity Output as a Percentage of Current Diesel Electricity Use for Iqaluit.

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Month

Monthly % PV NASA

Monthly % PV CERES

January February March April May June July August September October November December

19% 30% 58% 70% 63% 45% 37% 29% 22% 17% 14% 11%

26% 43% 79% 80% 64% 43% 36% 28% 20% 22% 20% 11%

Total

33%

38%

For the solar system, it was determined that the potential electricity output was 6,870,000 kWh. Figure 4.7 provides a graphical representation of the monthly potential electricity output of the solar PV system compared to the actual electricity use in Rankin Inlet in 2009–2010, while Table 4.5 summarizes these monthly values in percent and compares them to wind. A similar system was created for wind energy, and the total energy output of this system was found to be 19,700,000 kWh. Monthly electricity outputs are compared to the actual electricity use in Rankin Inlet in Figure 4.8.

4.4 Results

61

Fig. 4.6 Potential Wind Electricity Output versus Current Diesel Electricity Use for Iqaluit. Table 4.4. Potential Wind Electricity Output as a Percentage of Current Diesel Electricity Use for Iqaluit.

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Month

Monthly % Wind NASA

Monthly % Wind CERES

January February March April May June July August September October November December

42% 44% 32% 55% 64% 48% 28% 34% 45% 59% 57% 38%

50% 44% 54% 64% 70% 49% 28% 37% 40% 55% 64% 42%

Total

46%

49%

Using NASA data18 the values determined from the RETScreen simulations show that the overall percent of kWh saved using the solar PV and wind systems is 46% and 133% respectively. The fuel saved using the solar PV system would be about 1,909,000 litres, while the economic savings from this system would be about $1.4 M and the GHG savings would be 5.0 M kg CO2 equivalent. However, because the wind system could provide more electricity than is currently used in Rankin Inlet, the diesel fuel saved in the community 18 NASA is the only available data set for Rankin Inlet, as this community is not included in the CERES

database.

62 Technical Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut

Fig. 4.7 Potential Solar Electricity Output versus Current Diesel Electricity Use for Rankin Inlet. Table 4.5. Potential Solar Electricity Output and Wind Electricity Output as a Percentage of Current Diesel Electricity Use for Rankin Inlet. Month

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January February March April May June July August September October November December Total

Monthly % PV NASA

Monthly % Wind NASA

18.6% 34.1% 43.5% 67.0% 79.6% 76.2% 74.4% 58.7% 44.4% 43.5% 25.6% 9.6% 46.2%

137.4% 131.7% 129.1% 133.1% 130.6% 119.4% 110.3% 124.5% 140.1% 152.4% 143.1% 132.6% 132.6%

Fig. 4.8 Potential Wind Electricity Output versus Current Diesel Electricity Use for Rankin Inlet.

4.4 Results

63

would be equivalent to that which was used in 2009–2010, which is about 4,130,000 litres. Moreover, the economic savings provided from saving all the fuel currently used in the community would be about $3.1 M and the GHG savings would be 10,900,000 kg CO2 equivalent. Resolute Bay

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Resolute Bay is much smaller than the first two case studies and therefore, has an installed diesel capacity of only 1,860 MW; and in 2009–2010, the community used 4,200,000 kWh. Systems of equivalent capacity were designed in RETScreen using data from NASA and CERES. The results of the solar simulations determined that the potential electricity outputs would be between 2,083,666 and 2,089,673 kWh. Figure 4.9 and Table 4.6 provide a comparison of the monthly potential electricity output of the solar systems compared to the 2009–2010 electricity use in Resolute Bay. Wind energy simulations were also done in RETScreen using NASA and CERES data, and the total energy output was found to be between 1,432,500 and 1,451,389 kWh. The monthly energy outputs are summarized in Table 4.7 and a graphical comparison of these outputs to the actual energy use in Resolute Bay is shown in Figure 4.10. From the results of the RETScreen simulations, the overall percent of kWh saved from a solar PV system was found to be between 49–50% and between 122–128% for a wind system. From these values it was determined that a solar PV system would save between 578,796 and 580,465 litres of diesel fuel,

Fig. 4.9 Potential Solar Electricity Output versus Current Diesel Electricity Use for Resolute Bay.

64 Technical Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut Table 4.6. Potential Solar Electricity Output as a Current Diesel Electricity Use for Rankin Bay. Month January February March April May June July August September October November December Total

Monthly % PV NASA 0% 43% 84% 126% 126% 94% 70% 42% 34% 31% 0% 0% 50%

Monthly % PV CERES 0% 43% 87% 126% 123% 91% 70% 40% 34% 34% 0% 0% 49%

Table 4.7. Potential Wind Electricity Output as a Percentage of Current Diesel Electricity Use for Resolute Bay. Month

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January February March April May June July August September October November December Total

Monthly % Wind NASA

Monthly % Wind CERES

117.16% 119.56% 101.85% 118.23% 126.65% 130.67% 143.45% 140.74% 156.79% 152.23% 127.44% 120.72% 128.27%

129% 123% 145% 150% 134% 117% 115% 127% 113% 118% 108% 105% 122%

between $439,885 and $441,153, and between 1,527,501 and 1,531,904 kg CO2 equivalent. Alternatively, because the wind system could provide enough electricity to replace the total current electricity use in the community, Ds is equal to the diesel fuel used in 2009–2010, which was 1,170,572 litres. In addition, the economic savings from this saved diesel fuel would be about $889,634 and the GHG savings would be 3,089,256 kg CO2 equivalent. Summary of Results From Table 4.8, it is evident that there could be substantial savings provided by integrating a solar PV or wind system in Iqaluit, Rankin Inlet and Resolute

4.4 Results

65

Fig. 4.10 Potential Wind Electricity Output versus Current Diesel Electricity Use for Resolute Bay. Table 4.8. Summary of Savings Provided by Solar PV and Wind Systems. Community

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Iqaluit ∼15 MW Capacity

Diesel System

Solar PV System (savings)

Wind System (savings)

18,179,900– 20,539,500 33–38% 5,049,972– 5,705,417 3.8 M−4.3 M 13,327,38– 15,057,165

26,991,000– 26,721,000 49% 7,422,500– 7,497,500 5.6M 19,588,72– 19,786,652

Annual kWh

54,640,500

% kWh Diesel Fuel (litres)

100 % 15,177,917

Economics ($) GHG (kg CO2 eq)

11.5 M 40,056,040

Rankin Inlet ∼ 5.5 MW Capacity

Annual kWh % kWh Diesel Fuel (litres) Economics ($) GHG (kg CO2 eq)

14,877,101 100 % 4,132,528 3.1 M 10,906,155

6,872,500 46% 1,909,028 1.4 M 5,038,115

19,720,731 > 100% 4,132,528 3.1 M 10,906,154

Resolute Bay ∼ 1.0 MW Capacity

Annual kWh

5,395,000

% kWh Diesel Fuel (litres)

100 % 1,172,405

2,083,666– 2,089,673 49–50% 578,796– 580,465 $439,885– $441,153 1,527,501– 1,531,904

5,157,000– 5,225,000 > 100% 1,172,405

Economics ($) GHG (kg CO2 eq)

891,028 3,089,256

891,028 3,089,256.42

Bay. This is especially true for the wind systems in Rankin Inlet and Resolute Bay, where the yearly potential wind electricity output of the systems could cover more than 100% of the actual electricity used in the community when

66 Technical Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut Table 4.9. Discrepancies between Default RETScreen Data Set (NASA) and Independent Data Sets (CERES and Canadian Wind Atlas). Discrepancies

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SOLAR WIND

NASA versus CERES NASA versus CERES NASA versus Wind Atlas

Iqaluit

Rankin Inlet

+11.5% +1.0% +69.9%

N/A N/A −10.5%

Resolute Bay −1.3% −0.3% −45.5%

sized at the same capacity as the current diesel generators. Additionally, solar PV when sized similarly could provide a third to a half of the diesel electricity reductions in the three communities, and thus considerably decrease diesel fuel use.19 However, it is also apparent from Table 4.8 that the results of the RETScreen simulations have a considerable variance according to the resource data set used. As RETScreen uses the NASA climate database as its default data set, the discrepancy between this data set and the two independent data sets was determined; the results are outlined in Table 4.9. As can be seen in Table 4.9, the discrepancy between the NASA and CERES data for both solar and wind simulations is relatively low. It was found that the simulations that employed CERES data were between 0.3−12% of the default NASA data results. This is likely because both data sets are measured values at specific locations [65]. CERES provides data for 144 Canadian locations for the 1974-1993 period, including global, direct beam, and diffuse solar radiation on a horizontal surface and 31 tilted surface orientations including 1 sun-tracking surface, referred to as FTS (follow the sun). Global horizontal radiation was measured at only about 25% of the locations, and simulated at the remaining stations using the MAC3 model [66]. Global radiation on nonhorizontal surfaces was modeled from horizontal radiation for all locations using the Hay model [67]. Mean bias errors for the Hay model typically ranged from 5 to 10% for a variety of tilted surface orientations [56]. In addition, data for 8 meteorological stations in Alaska, which was extracted from the U.S. National Solar Radiation Database that covers a similar period (1961–1990) and provides monthly and annual mean radiation data, was also added due to 19 It should be noted that these values are based off of sizing systems to follow a hybrid backup of the

RET and thus only have the power of the current diesel system. Any value up to 100% renewable energy could be obtained by continuing to increase the size of the RET system and the storage available.

4.5 Discussion

67

concerns over data sparsity in the far north [56]. On the other hand, the SSE data set contains measurements of global solar energy for 1195 ground sites and over 200 satellite-derived meteorology and solar energy parameters averaged over 22 years (1983–2005). Thus, SSE and CERES must be compared carefully and small errors can be expected in the estimations of photovoltaic yield. Contrarily, there was a large discrepancy between the NASA data simulations and the Canadian Wind Atlas data simulations. As seen in Table 4.9, these discrepancies were between 10.5–70%. The reason for this large discrepancy is due to the way the Canadian Wind Atlas is generated. The Canadian Wind Atlas data is simulated and the data was validated using a set of long-term anemometric stations operated and archived by Environment Canada in larger cities that had at least 30,000 records [68]. Moreover, this data was extrapolated from 50 m by a logarithmic formula to a 10 m level [68]. However, because Nunavut communities are very remote and are not largely populated, it is clear the data in this region was overlooked in the validation and is therefore not very accurate [68].

4.5 Discussion

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4.5.1 Potential for PV and Wind Based on the results of the RETScreen simulations, it is evident that wind and solar PV could dramatically displace diesel use in the three case study communities. For instance, between the months of March and August, as seen in Tables 4.3, 4.5, 4.7 and 4.9, solar power could potentially provide about 40% or more of the current electricity use in each of the three communities. This is especially true in Resolute Bay, where there is 24-hour sunlight during these months. Wind energy, on the other hand, also shows excellent potential depending on the location of the community. In Iqaluit, wind energy varies monthly, ranging from 28% to 70% throughout the year, depending on the wind data used. However, winds in Resolute Bay and Rankin Inlet are much stronger and continuous throughout the year, and as illustrated in Tables 4.4 and 4.6, could provide wind energy that would displace more than 100% of the current diesel electricity used in the communities each month with appropriate short term storage or diesel used as a backup.

68 Technical Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut 4.5.2 Economics From the results it is evident that integrating RETs into Nunavut communities could provide a number of environmental benefits and diesel fuel savings in communities; however, within the communities, the main driver for change still remains the economic feasibility of a system [69,70]. Table 4.9 shows that there can be substantial economic savings from simply reducing diesel fuel use. It is clear that the levelized costs of solar electricity at current costs for RETs in Ontario are less than current electrical rates in Nunavut. Nonetheless, to provide an accurate and realistic economic assessment, it is essential to determine the annualized return on investment (ROI) of the system, which is the time required to recover the initial investment from the revenue stream [71,72]. As part of this calculation, one must also consider the complex government subsidies that exist for electricity use and generation in Nunavut. In calculating the ROI it would be possible to determine if these wind and solar PV systems are economically feasible for Nunavut communities and is left for future work.

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4.5.3 Natural Resource Portfolio As previously discussed in Sections 4.2.2.3 and 4.2.2.4, there are numerous RETs that could be technically viable in Nunavut, including hydropower, tidal power, and geothermal power. However, a major barrier to determining their potential success is the availability of accurate resource data. In the case of hydropower, there has been little hydrology data gathered in Nunavut. As a result, it is currently not possible to create an accurate map outlining the hydrology resources in the territory, or the energy that can be produced by a hydropower plant in any Nunavut community using existing data. Furthermore, upon completing the solar and wind simulations in RETScreen, it became apparent that the available data for both resources varies greatly depending on the source of the data. Moreover, some climate databases, such as CERES by Environment Canada, lack data for a number of Northern communities, including Rankin Inlet. This poses a major barrier for future RET development in the territory as simulations may not provide accurate models of potential energy output for RET systems in certain Nunavut communities and thus strong economic cases cannot be made. Therefore, it is suggested that a comprehensive renewable resource portfolio be developed in Nunavut; which

4.6 Conclusions

69

should include accurate hydrology, solar and wind data collected from ground monitoring stations, as well as data measuring the geothermal potential, tidal stream data, and other natural resource data.

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4.6 Conclusions This chapter examined the technical feasibility of two RETs, solar PV and wind turbines, for three Nunavut communities, Iqaluit, Rankin Inlet, and Resolute Bay. RET systems were designed to match the current diesel power plant capacity in each community. Through the analyses it was found that a solar PV plant could reduce diesel electricity production by 33% to 50%, depending on the community, and provide economic savings between $494,000 and $4.3 M/year. Moreover, PV systems proved to potentially save between 1,527,500 and 15,057,200 kg of CO2 equivalent. Thus hybrid solar CHP systems have significant potential for remote communities and should be further investigated. Wind energy proved to be even more successful, providing potential diesel electricity reductions of more than 100% in Rankin Inlet and Resolute Bay, and about 49% in Iqaluit. Moreover, the potential economic savings from wind were found to be between $891,028 and $5.6 M a year, while the GHG savings could be between 3,089,256 and 19,786,652 kg of CO2 equivalent. It is clear that wind-diesel systems have significant potential for remote communities, but have faced many technical challenges (e.g., power integration and control systems), which must be addressed in the future. From these results, it is evident that solar PV and wind turbines are a technically viable option for Nunavut communities as they look to reduce the diesel use across the territory. In addition, combined with further economic analyses following the ROI argument, these systems will likely also prove to be economically feasible, thereby making RETs a sound and beneficial investment for the territory of Nunavut.

Acknowledgments The authors would like to acknowledge support from Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, TD Canada Trust, the Government of Nunavut, and helpful discussions and data from Qulliq Energy Corporation, and R. Andrews.

70 Technical Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut

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References [1] Government of Nunavut (GN), 2007a. The Government of Nunavut Energy Strategy. Iqaluit: Department of Executive and Intergovernmental Affairs. [2] Government of Nunavut (GN), 2007b. A Discussion Paper for Ikummatiit — An Energy Strategy for Nunavut. Iqaluit: Department of Executive and Intergovernmental Affairs. [3] Weir, E., 2002. EPA links diesel exhaust, lung cancer. CMAJ, 167(7). [4] CACP, 1999. Provocative factors in asthma. CMAJ, 161 (11 Supplement 1). [5] NTI, 2009. Recruitment and Retention of Inuit Nurses in Nunavut March 2009. Iqaluit: Department of Health and Social Services. [6] NTI, 2005. Nunavut Adult Learning Strategy. Iqaluit: Department of Health and Social Services. [7] Government of Nunavut (GN), 2009. Nunavut Maternal and Newborn Health Care Strategy 2009–2014. Iqaluit: Department of Health and Social Services. [8] Egeland, G.M., Pacey, A., Cao, Z., and Sobol, I., 2010. Food insecurity among Inuit preschoolers: Nunavut Inuit Child Health Survey, 2007–2008. Canadian Medical Association Journal, 182(3), 243–248. [9] REN 21 (Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century), 2009. Renewables Global Status Report 2009 Update. Paris: REN21 Secretariat. [10] Branker K., Pearce, J. M., 2010. Financial Return for Government Support of Large-Scale Thin-Film Solar Photovoltaic Manufacturing in Canada. Energy Policy 38(8), 4291–4303. [11] Smitherman, G., 2009. Bill 150, An Act to enact the Green Energy Act, 2009 and to build a green economy, to repeal the Energy Conservation Leadership Act, 2006 and the Energy Efficiency Act and to amend other statutes, 2009. Ottawa: Legislative Assembly of Ontario. [12] OPA (Ontario Power Authority), 2010. Facilitating the Development and use of Renewable Energy and Enabling 2010 and 2025 Renewable Energy Targets. Available from: http://www.ontarioelectricityrfp.ca/Storage/69/6448_E-2-2_corrected_080505_ _mm_.pdf [Accessed January 27, 2011]. [13] OPA (Ontario Power Authority), 2010. Feed-in Tariff Program Development. Available from: http://fit.powerauthority.on.ca/Page.asp?PageID=1115&SiteNodeID=1052 [Accessed January 27, 2011]. [14] St. Denis, G., Parker, P., 2009. Community energy planning in Canada: The role of renewable energy. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13(8), 2088–2095. [15] Environment Canada, 2010. National Climate Normals 1971–2000: Nunavut [Online]. Government of Canada. Available from: http://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climate_ normals/index_e.html [Accessed January 30, 2011]. [16] Pearce, J.M., Albritton, S., Grant, G., Steed, G. and Zelenika, I. 2011. Enabling Innovation in Appropriate Technology for Sustainable Development, Sustainability: Science, Practice & Policy (in press). [17] Government of Nunavut (GN), 2008a. Nunavut Communities. Iqaluit: Department of Government and Community Services. [18] Nunavut Bureau of Statistics, 2009. Nunavut Population Estimates by Region and Community. Iqaluit: Department of Finance. [19] Nunavut Bureau of Statistics, 2010. Nunavut Quick Facts [Online]. Government of Nunavut. Available from http://www.eia.gov.nu.ca/stats/ [Accessed December 20, 2010].

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[20] Statistics Canada, 2009. Transportation in the North [Online]. Government of Canada. Available from http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/16-002-x/2009001/article/10820-eng.htm [Accessed December 29, 2010]. [21] Joint Ventures Ltd, 2003. Bathurst Inlet Port and Road Project. Yellowknife. [22] Government of Nunavut (GN), 2006. An Introduction to Health and Social Services in Nunavut. Iqaluit: Department of Health and Social Services. [23] London Economic Press, 2004. Nunavut: Fact Sheet. Boston: London Economic Press. [24] Centre for Energy, 2009. Nunavut — Statistics [Online]. Available from: http://www. centreforenergy.com/FactsStats/Statistics.asp?Template=5,12 [Accessed December 29, 2010]. [25] Government of Nunavut (GN), 2010. Fiscal and Economic Outlook. Iqaluit: Department of Finance. [26] INAC, 2010. ecoENERGY for Aboriginal and Northern Communities Program Overview [Online]. Government of Canada. Available from: http://www.ainc-inac.gc.ca/ enr/clc/pra/ovr-eng.asp [Accessed December 29, 2010]. [27] Government of the Northwest Territories (GNWT), 2008. Electricity Rates for 1,000 kW/h in North America (in cents per Kw/h). Yellowknife: Department of Industry, Tourism and Investment. [28] Von Moltke, A., McKee, C., Morgan, T., 2004. Energy Subsidies: Lessons learned in assessing their impact and designing policy reforms. 1st ed. Sheffield: Greenleaf. [29] NRCAN, 1998. Renewable Energy in Canada’s Remote Communities — Prefeasibility Studies of Potential Projects. Varennes: CANMET. [30] Windeyer, Chris, 2010. A wind turbine designed with the Arctic in mind. Nunatsiuq News. 27 September. [31] Pearce, J.M. 2002. Photovoltaics — A Path to Sustainable Futures, Futures 34(7), 663–674. [32] Poissant, Y., Thevenard, D., Turcotte, D., 2004. Performance Monitoring of the Nunavut Arctic College PV Systme: Nine Years of Reliable Electricity Generation. Iqaluit: Nunavut Research Institute. [33] Andrews, R. and Pearce, J.M. 2011. The effects of snow on photovoltaic performance [Online]. Appropedia. Available from: http://www.appropedia.org/Effects_of_ snow_on_photovoltaic_performance [Accessed May 9, 2011]. [34] Dignard-Bailey, L., Martel, S., Ross, M.M.D., 2007. Photovoltaics for the North: A Canadian Program. Varennes: Natural Resources Canada. [35] Malcolm, D., Martel, S., Troke, S., 1998. Photovoltaics for the North: Five Years of Breaking Down Barriers in the Northwest Territories. Northwest Territories: CANMET. [36] Ross, M.M.D, Usher, E.P., 1995. Photovoltaic Array Icing and Snow Accumulation: A Study of a Passive Melting Technology. In: Proceedings of the 21st Annual Conference of the Solar Energy Society of Canada, 31 October to 2 November Toronto. [37] Ross, M. M. D., 1995. Snow and Ice Accumulation on Photovoltaic Arrays: An Assessment of the TN Conseil Passive Melting Technology. Varennes: CANMET. [38] CanmetENERGY, 2008. Renewables: Wind Energy in Cold Climates [Online]. Natural Resource Canada. Available from: http://canmetenergy-canmetenergie.nrcanrncan.gc.ca/eng/renewables/wind_energy/cold_climate.html [Accessed December 28, 2010]. [39] Yukon Development Corporation and Yukon Energy, 2001. The Winds of Change: The Story of Wind Generation in the Yukon. Whitehorse: Government of Yukon.

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72 Technical Feasibility of Renewable Electricity Generation in Nunavut [40] Tammelin, B. and Seifert, H., 2001. Large Wind Turbines Go Into Cold Climate Regions. In: EWEC, 6 July Copenhagen. [41] Nunavut Power, 2002. Wind Power Generation. Iqaluit: Government of Nunavut. [42] Ascher, A., 2002. North wind: Nunavut and Yukon are hoping wind turbines will reduce dependency on diesel plants. Alternatives Journal, 28(4). [43] Hessami, M-A., Campbell, H., 2011. A feasibility study of hybrid wind power systems for remote communities. Energy Policy, 39(2): 877–886. [44] CanmetENERGY, 2005. An Introduction to Micro Hydropower Systems. Ottawa: Natural Resource Canada. [45] George, J., 2007. Jaynes Inlet top choice for Iqaluit hydro plan. Nunatsiaq News. 16 March 16. [46] QEC, 2008. Iqaluit Hydro-electric project. Iqaluit: Government of Nunavut. [47] Industcards, 2010a. Wave and Tidal Hydroelectric Plants. Available from http://www. industcards.com/hydro-wave-tidal.htm [Accessed December 29, 2010]. [48] Nunavut Parks, 2010. Sylvia Grinnell Territorial Park [Online]. Government of Nunavut. Available from: http://www.nunavutparks.com/english/parks-special-places/ sylvia-grinnell-territorial-park/features.html [Accessed December 28, 2010]. [49] Pearson, B., 2008. Don’t dump it — Burn it. Nunatsiaq News. 25 July. [50] Industcards, 2007. Waste-to-energy plants in Norway. Available from http://www. industcards.com/wte-no.htm [Accessed December 29, 2010]. [51] Industcards, 2010b. Geothermal Power Plants in Europe. Available from http://www. industcards.com/geo-europe.htm./ [Accessed December 29, 2010]. [52] CanGEA, 2010. Empowering Canadian Geothermal — 5,000 MW by 2015! [Online]. Canadian Geothermal Energy Association. Available from: http://www.cangea. ca/images/uploads/Index%20of%20Canadian%20Geothermal%20Projects%20and%20 Hot%20Springs.pdf [Accessed December 29, 2010]. [53] NRCAN, 2010. RETScreen International: Empowering Cleaner Energy Decisions [Online]. Government of Canada. Available from http://www.retscreen.net/ang/ home.php [Accessed December 28, 2010]. [54] Nosrat, A. and Pearce, J.M. 2011. Dispatch Strategy and Model for Hybrid Photovoltaic and Combined Heating, Cooling, and Power Systems, Applied Energy 88, 3270–3276. [55] NASA, 2009. Surface meteorology and Solar Energy (SSE) Release 6.0 Methodology. Report. [56] Pelland, S., McKenney, D. W., Poissant, Y., Morris, R., Lawrence, K., Campbell, K. and Papadopol, P. 2006. The Development of Photovoltaic Resource Maps for Canada. In Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Solar Energy Society of Canada (SESCI) 2006. [57] Canadian Wind Energy Atlas, 2003. Methodology. Ottawa: Environment Canada. [58] NRCAN, 2009. Power-Photovoltaic — 3.2 kW -Isolated-grid/Canada [Online]. Government of Canada. Available from http://www.retscreen.net/ang/case_studies_ 3_2KW_isolated_grid_canada.php [Accessed December 28, 2010]. [59] RETScreen, 2009a. Power-Wind turbine — 150 kW -Isolated-grid/Canada. Ottawa: Natural Resources Canada. [60] RETScreen, 2009b. Power-Photovoltaic — 3.2 kW -Isolated-grid/Canada. Ottawa: Natural Resources Canada.

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[61] RETScreen, 2005. RETScreen Software Online User Manual: Photovoltaic Project Model. Ottawa: Natural Resources Canada. [62] RETScreen, 2004. RETScreen Software Online User Manual: Wind Energy Project Model. Ottawa: Natural Resources Canada. [63] Hudson, E., Alhoshi, D., Gaines, T., Simard, G., Mullock, J., 2001. The Weather of Nunavut and the Arctic. Kelowna: Nav Canada. [64] Defra, 2009. 2009 Guidelines to Defra / DECC’s GHG Conversion Factors for Company Reporting. United Kingdom: Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. [65] Tiongson, K. 2004. Historical Weather and Climate Data Available from Environment Canada. Downsview: Environment Canada. [66] Davies, J.A., Abdel-Wahab, M. and McKay, D.C., 1984. Estimating Solar Irradiation on Horizontal Surfaces. International Journal of Solar Energy, 2, 405–424. [67] Hay, J.E., 1979. Calculation of monthly mean solar radiation for horizontal and inclined surfaces. Solar Energy 23:301–330. [68] Benoit, R., Yu, W., Glazer, A., 2004. A Wind Energy Atlas for Canada: Solving the Challenge of Large-Area Wind Resource Mapping. Dorval: Environment Canada. [69] McDonald, N.C., 2011. Exploring Local Nunavut Perspectives on Renewable Energy Expansion. Public Sector Digest, April 2011. [70] McDonald, N.C. and Pearce, J.M. 2011. Community Voices: Perspectives on Renewable Energy in Nunavut. To be published. [71] McLaughlin, D.V.P., McDonald, N.C., Nguyen, H.T., Pearce, J.M., 2010. Leveraging Photovoltaic Technology for Sustainable Development in Ontario’s First Nations Communities. Journal of Sustainable Development 3(3), 3–13. [72] Pearce, J. M., Denkenberger, D., and Zielonka, H., 2009. Accelerating Applied Sustainability by Utilizing Return on Investment for Energy Conservation Measures. International Journal of Energy, Environment and Economics, 17(1), 61–80.

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5 The Role of Renewable Energy Technology in Holistic Community Development

Alexander Zahnd1 and Philip Jennings2 1 RIDS-Nepal,

Nepal / Murdoch University WA; Australia / Kathmandu University, Nepal 2 Professor of Energy Studies School of Engineering and Energy Murdoch University, Murdoch, Western Australia 6150 Australia

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Abstract Recent research has demonstrated a direct relationship between poverty alleviation and improved access to clean, efficient energy services, (IEA, 2002; Saghir, 2005). Thus, improved access to basic energy services, such as a smokeless stove for cooking/room heating, basic electric indoor lighting, hot water for cooking/drinking/personal hygiene, have been recognized as a central part of an holistic community development (HCD) program (Zahnd, 2012). People’s needs are not just individual problems, but multi-faceted. Most of the 1.6–2 billion people without access to electricity (Mills, 2002), 1.1 billion without safe drinking water, 2.3 billion suffering from water-related diseases (with >2 million children dying each year), 2.4 billion without adequate sanitation (TEAR, 2002) and 2.4 billion relying on traditional biomass for their daily energy services (IEA, 2002), live in developing countries, and four out of five live in rural areas (IEA, 2002). Experience of working with remote, impoverished high altitude mountain communities in Nepal, since 1996, shows, that 80–85% of the local village communities identify the same four needs they wish to address: a pit latrine for improved hygiene/health; a smokeless stove Green Energy, 75–142. © 2012 River Publishers. All rights reserved.

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76 The Role of Renewable Energy Technology in Holistic Community Development inside the house for cooking/room heating/hot water; basic electric indoor lighting; and access to clean drinking water (Zahnd, 2012). The local people’s own identified needs show how central improved access to energy services is. With due respect and desire to address them, Zahnd has developed the “Family of 4” HCD concept which includes projects, implemented in parallel, for each family of a village, addressing all four of these needs. Further, once the “Family of 4” projects are in place, and their impact and benefits are experienced, the local people start to recognize additional needs. Therefore, Zahnd created the “Family of 4 PLUS” HCD concept. While the “Family of 4” is a more rigid concept, with all four projects to be implemented alongside each other for each family, the “Family of 4 PLUS”, is made up thus far of 8 additional projects and is a more flexible concept, based on additional identified needs and requests (Zahnd, 2012). Both HCD concepts address the millennium development goals (MDGs) directly. After a decade of implementing HCD projects in 16 villages in the remote high altitude Nepal Himalayas, where the national grid and drivable roads will probably never go, these concepts have been shown to bring significantly more, long-term benefits than individual projects would have been able to (Zahnd 2012). This is because the multi-faceted needs of the communities are recognised and addressed through a holistic, context-specific, multi-project approach, which produces synergistic benefits. Further, the HCD approach enables communities in such a unique and fragile ecosystem that is threatened by climate change, to adapt and become more resilient by tapping into their locally available renewable energy resources in sustainable, carbon neutral ways. This paper presents a summary of the results of 15 years of grass roots project experience in partnership with impoverished, remote high altitude communities in the Nepal Himalayas. We argue that access to elementary energy services is a crucial aspect of long-term community development. We claim that tapping locally available renewable energy sources, through renewable energy technologies, developed for a defined geographical, cultural and climatic context is central to a project’s sustainability and long-term success. These contextualized renewable energy technologies (RETs), in concert with other project components, are part of the new multi-pronged, long-term community development approach for professionals working in the field of RETs and community development around the globe.

5.1 Introduction

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5.1 Introduction Nepal is a unique country, in regard to its culture, people, geography, ecosystems and climate. These are crucial factors to be understood in great detail when developing and implementing development projects (Zahnd, 2012). Situated in the lap of the Himalayas, Nepal is landlocked between China to the north and India to the south, east and west. It embraces unique climatic environments, from tropical to high alpine, in a physical ecosystem, ranging between altitudes of 70 m.a.s.l. to 8,848 m.a.s.l. Previously cut off by thick forests and jungles infested with malaria and dangerous animals, its culture developed for most of its history in isolation from any foreign influence. Thus it comes as no surprise that Nepal is still in its infancy in regard to its new democratic political system, which started to take shape only in the 1990s. Further, frequent changes in the political leadership, with minimal long-term planning, as well as the decade long civil war from 1996–2006, have resulted in the decay of the urban infrastructure, so that it has become “acceptable” in the capital, Kathmandu, to live without access to electricity from the grid for 18 hours a day during the drier season of the year, from February to May. Nepal is one of the poorest developing countries, with 42 of Nepal’s 75 districts considered acute and permanent food-deficit areas. Nepal is also one of a few countries with a lower female life-expectancy than male (Zahnd, 2012). Officially 92 different languages are spoken by 103 distinct castes and ethnic groups (Nepal, 2001, census). Most people in the mid- and high-altitude hill/mountain areas are subsistence farmers with little farm land, poor soil and harsh conditions, making a meagre living. Crops are vulnerable, with immediate consequences if natural calamities strike or weather patterns change. In order to engage in development work, it is important to first comprehend people’s culture in depth (Zahnd, 2012). This is vital for anyone involved in community development projects in Nepal, because it was isolated from the outside world for more than two centuries until 1950. The Nepalese are family oriented and most tasks and events are believed to be connected with the spiritual world. Fortune and misfortune are widely accepted as the result of fate. Fatalism proclaims that “one has no personal control over one’s life circumstances, which are determined through a divine or powerful external

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78 The Role of Renewable Energy Technology in Holistic Community Development agency”. Bista (1991, 2–4) points out that the culture of fatalism is inherently unsupportive and in conflict with development and productivity. He goes on to say: “this deep belief in fatalism has had a devastating effect on the work ethic and achievement motivation, and through these on the Nepalese response to development. It has consequences for the sense of time, and in particular such things as the concept of planning, orientation to the future, sense of causality, human dignity and punctuality.” He explains (1991, 29–59), that the class and caste system are “at the base of many of Nepal’s development difficulties”. Another strong cultural tie, connected with fatalism, is dependency, expressed in the concept of afno manche, meaning one’s own-people, belonging to the “inner circle” of a group of people. It encourages the problem of inclusion-exclusion as group members acquire favourable status through the trading of privileges/services rather than based on professional standing. This can clearly impede project goals as Bista (1991, 4) explains, saying: “with afno manche one finds exclusionary tendencies, factionalism, failures in cooperation, and corruption in various forms leading to malfunctioning of development administration and dissatisfaction at every level”. Thus, dependency and fatalism, deeply rooted and combined in the society’s belief and cultural systems, pose significant impediments to sustainable development. Approximately 80% of Nepal’s population belong to the 2.4 billion people who rely on traditional biomass such as firewood, agricultural residues and dung, for their day to day cooking, heating and lighting needs. The rich resources of Nepal, in particular the abundant water from over 6,000 rivers flowing from the high Himalayas down to the Indian sub-continent, and its abundant solar energy, with 300 sunny days per year, are underutilised. Thus most (∼75%) of Nepal’s rural people and communities are deprived of even the most basic energy services. Over the course of the last four decades many summits, conferences and seminars on “Sustainability and Development” were held (Zahnd, 2012), and many theorists have come up with new definitions for “sustainable development”. However, rather than clarifying the original meaning of each word and defining the practical outworking and implications of joining them, “sustainable development” is used today as buzz word which, unless included in a project proposal, donors will not even consider to finance.

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The word “development” has distinct social and political connotations, often equated with growth and expansion, in terms of physical production or economic growth, but as well non-physical growth such as in measuring well-being after a course of action. In fact, since the beginning of the new millennium it has become more and more clear that equating economic and material growth simply with the concept of development is unrealistic, since ongoing exponential economic growth is a physical impossibility within the realm of the earth’s ecosystem, due to its finite resources and limited boundaries. The word “sustainable” originated in a context of harvesting and managing renewable resources in such ways that they do not deplete, but will be available for future generations as well. Thus it has its roots in the defined and limited ecosystem which supports human life and its endeavours, indicating constraints within which mankind has to live in order to survive. It is obvious that the need to maintain the ecological balance for survival is vital in order to allow mankind to continue to live within the boundaries of the earth’s ecosystem. And all that takes place within a social and political framework of aspirations for advancement or growth (or development). Hence, in joining the two concepts of “sustainability” and “development” to form “sustainable development”, it is clear that it emphasises the need to maintain the ecological balance while striving for social and political changes (Earth Charter, 1992). History has shown that these two aspects intrinsically influence each other and thus, the objectives of maintaining ecological balance or sustainability are paramount to the approach to development. Thus, a deep understanding of the local belief systems, customs, political history, deeply rooted poverty, status of development and economy (Zahnd, 2012) are crucial for community development projects in Nepal. In addition, the environmental, technical, managerial and philosophical issues form a basis for understanding and implementing community development projects. This paper summarizes the role of renewable energy technologies, designed for a specific context, to meet identified community needs. These RETs are embedded in the new holistic community development concepts “Family of 4” and “Family of 4 PLUS” (Zahnd, 2012). Renewable energy technologies such as solar PV, solar thermal (water heating, cooking, food drying), pico-hydro power, small scale wind turbines and biomass (firewood)

80 The Role of Renewable Energy Technology in Holistic Community Development cooking and heating stoves, are considered within the context of implemented, village based, holistic community development projects.

5.2 Philosophy and Rationale of Holistic Community Development

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5.2.1 A Glimpse at the History of Development Until the 1980s there was a strong sense of optimism in discussions and debates about international development. The world economy was growing and the social climate, particularly in the late 1960s and 1970s was favourable for projects that emphasised holism, community, and social equality. Investments in international development were high and expected to continue increasing. Multi-sectoral, broad-based comprehensive primary health care was “in.” When WHO’s concept of “primary health care for all” emerged in the 1970s, primary health care as a concept was integrative and multi-level, with “health” given the holistic definition of “the physical, mental and social well being of the individual” (Alma Ata, 1978). Holistic community development, as a strategy for improving health outcomes, emerged in a period during which there was significant debate about the nature of poverty and the need to understand the structural changes that would be necessary to improve the lives of the impoverished. The foundation of this approach relied upon the idea that improvements in health would always be contingent in part upon changes in the social, political and economic factors that ultimately determine the quality of life of the world’s poorest. It was understood that many issues affect health, and that in most project sites in the rural developing world, the lack of physical infrastructure (roads and bridges), the absence of running water and electricity, the difficulties associated with getting people to accept and use such innovations as latrines, improved cooking/heating stoves, and lack of transport (among many other social and economic factors) all affect health outcomes. Accordingly, the assistance of a variety of professionals in broad, multi-sectoral programs to improve health status in a target population was considered necessary. Health was viewed, not simply as a problem of disease, but as one of several factors contributing to lower the quality of life that the poor experience. Some examples of comprehensive primary health care programs would include projects that improve health awareness and training, community public

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health education, improved access to affordable energy services (electricity, warm/hot water, room heating etc.), drinking water taps, capacity to grow more nutritious food, improvements in the safety and cleanliness of living areas, building health posts and furnishing them with staff, supplies, and on-going training. It was axiomatic among community development professionals and theorists of development that projects should be holistic, multi-pronged, and involve the efforts of a multi-disciplinary team, acting in concert with local people. This was the climate out of which the Alma Ata conference in 1978 developed. In the early 1980s the world economy looked very different — economic recession, debt, the oil crisis and an increasingly unfavourable trade climate had taken their toll, and the world economy was not growing as hoped. Development projects across sectors had failed and many people had lost confidence in the process of international development. Projects focused on health were particularly concerning to analysts of development, because the possibility that health was not a development sector that was going to be able to be “turned over” to some governments in the developing world any time in the next 50 years was beginning to be understood (LaFond, 1995). As LaFond (1995) notes, weakening public support for overseas assistance in the 1980s strongly affected international donor agencies’ budgets to programs that could not show “results.” Health-focused UN agencies (e.g., UNICEF) and the WHO were affected by heightening public scrutiny and criticism as well, and were increasingly governed by the need to show results that were simple to display, easy to understand, and obtainable within a defined funding cycle (often only 1 year). Due to this, plus greater emphasis by donor agencies on quantifiable results and outcomes, a more narrow definition of primary health care emerged and dramatically changed the nature of the projects that were promoted and funded. This definition is often associated with the somewhat contentious “selective approach,” centred on short-term, single-goal-oriented interventions, and cost effectiveness. Vaccination programs are an example of this approach. These are simple, effective and affordable interventions that prevent devastating, often fatal diseases experienced by many of the rural poor (e.g., measles, pertussis, tetanus, poliomyelitis, diphtheria and tuberculosis). Other single component projects include solar PV systems for indoor lighting, village drinking water systems and literacy programs.

82 The Role of Renewable Energy Technology in Holistic Community Development Thus the emphasis on multi-pronged projects fell by the way-side in the 1980s and 1990s, when international funding for development aid came under increasing scrutiny, and the scope of projects narrowed in order to meet evertightening control over reporting and transparency, and an overwhelming need to show results — preferably within one fiscal year.

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5.2.2 Comprehensive vs. Selective Approaches to Development Thus, over the course of the last few decades, community development has mostly addressed individual issues and needs of projects’ end-users, with often minimal interaction and participation of the receiver, resulting in minimal long-term impact and/or new opportunities for the beneficiaries. This is a consequence of the serious shortcoming of failing to recognise that communities have multi-faceted problems and needs within a defined environment and culture. Single-strand projects can never address these many-sided needs and issues, which are all dependent on, and interlinked with, each other. The various self-identified needs of the community have to be heard and included in a new, more holistic community development project approach. Today, most of the traditional health projects concentrate on curative health treatments, addressing sicknesses and health impairments caused by people’s poor living conditions. While people treated under such single-objective, curative health projects get better over the short-term, they often fall sick again once they return to their homes and former way of life, because the root causes of their poor health conditions have not been dealt with. This widespread approach to development shows that there is a significant lack of understanding of the importance of preventative health care measurements and projects. Thus it can be claimed, that while selective approaches to development can be effective in achieving carefully specified goals, selective approaches cannot produce the critical synergistic-benefits of a multi-pronged, holistic project framework. As previously mentioned, there is a direct relationship between poverty alleviation and improved access to clean, efficient energy services, such as electrical and thermal energy. In addition to the evidence in the literature, Zahnd can testify that this is also his personal experience from living and working since 1996 with the poorest and most remote high altitude mountain communities in the Nepal Himalayas. These years have also convinced him

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that a selective approach alone cannot effectively and responsibly improve the livelihood and health outcomes of the people in the Humla district in Nepal, where he has worked with the non-profit NGO, RIDS-Nepal, since 2002. Currently, it is widely recognised that acute respiratory infections (ARIs), diarrheal diseases and malnutrition are the main problems that need immediate and sustained attention in rural Nepal (Winrock, 2004; Benguigui, 1999; Pandey, 1989). These problems cannot be addressed without making deep and significant changes to infrastructure and behaviour patterns. While selective projects targeting diseases like polio and measles are critical and do show results that are easily quantified, they cannot be the only approach to tackling the serious health problems facing rural people in the struggle for improved overall living conditions. The scope of solutions has to be as wide and as multi-sectorial as the identified problems that local people suffer. Thus respiratory infections can be addressed through a stove inside the homes, supported with solar PV or pico-hydro powered minimal electrical indoor lighting, improving the cooking, room heating and indoor lighting conditions from the previous open fire place drastically over time. Diarrheal diseases can be countered through a family built and owned pit latrine, thus banning the open defecations that spread disease. Access to clean drinking water is facilitated through the village owned and built drinking water system, which pipes clean and fresh water from the community owned water source. Malnutrition, a very widespread phenomenon, can mainly be addressed through increased hygiene awareness and non-formal education literacy classes, enabling the mothers to understand the reasons for their children’s poor nutritional state and often early, unnecessary death. Further, increased local food availability is achieved through high altitude greenhouses, which produce vegetables for 10 months per year, instead of the previous 3–4 months through the traditional farming technologies. These produce long lasting changes which lead to sustainable development after some 5–10 years of constant improvement of people’s living conditions. In our time in the villages, we have seen positive synergistic effects of holistic community development programs, when project components are chosen by villagers based on their needs assessment and when these components dove-tail together to improve the overall hygiene, sanitation and access to elementary energy services and the health situation in the village. Thus, the local RET projects, developed in this context, are embedded in long-term HCD

84 The Role of Renewable Energy Technology in Holistic Community Development activities and preventative health care programs that remove the root causes of poor health conditions. Two major, direct health related benefits, are experienced through RET projects. First, their application and use brings relief from suffering, related to poor living conditions, such as heavy indoor air pollution from open-fire cooking and heating. This enables improved overall health-, and livingconditions, even for people with permanent and incurable health conditions. The second, even greater and more long-term benefits of RETs, lie in the prevention of a whole range of illnesses and health impairments for the people born into families who already have an HCD project implemented. This paper aims to show that an improved, long-term HCD approach to community development for Nepal’s people, based on their identified needs and local resources, within their context and culture, is urgently needed. It argues through practical examples that appropriate and sustainable solutions for long-term development of local communities demand that people’s needs are recognised, respected and addressed in more holistic ways. It stresses that recognising, and utilising the communities’ locally available resources is crucial for long-term sustainable development. It sets out to demonstrate that tapping into the locally available renewable energy resources, and converting them through contextualised renewable energy technologies for easier access to improved energy services, has to be a central part of community development. This is demonstrated, through practical examples from the daily lives of some of Nepal’s remotest, high-altitude village communities, who live under the harshest imaginable conditions.

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5.3 Holistic Community Development Concepts — “Family of 4” and “Family of 4 PLUS” 5.3.1 The “Family of 4” Zahnd’s extensive experience working and living in the high altitude villages in Nepal, in combination with the teaching and reading of the development literature, has convinced him that a return to a HCD model, appropriately designed for a defined local context brings real and sustainable life changes with positive health improvements for local people. The most commonly expressed needs of communities are a Pit Latrine, a Smokeless Stove, Basic Indoor Lighting and Clean Drinking Water. These

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all address improved and easier access to basic energy services, and better hygiene and health conditions. Thus Zahnd developed the new Holistic Community Development (HCD) concept of the “Family of 4” (a Pit Latrine, a Smokeless Stove, Basic Indoor Lighting and Clean Drinking Water). Once the “Family of 4” HCD is implemented, in use and impacting on people’s lives and living conditions, the “Family of 4 PLUS”, with various additional measures is introduced (Zahnd 2012). Some of the primary health conditions affecting people in the remote mountain communities where we work are: scabies and other skin conditions, due to unhygienic living conditions; chronic and often severe upper-and lower-respiratory chest infections, due primarily to indoor air pollution from cooking over open-fires; gastro-intestinal worms and other parasites due to the lack of hygienic human waste disposal systems; and dysentery and Giardia infections from polluted drinking water. To address only one of these problems with a technical solution might be attractive to a donor with a limited mandate, time-frame, or budget. While recognising that limitations such as these are a reality for many donors, experience shows that a single-pronged approach is neither sustainable nor beneficial in the long-term. The lure of the single-pronged approach — its simplicity, the possibility of completing the project within a single fiscal year for results to be reported back to the donor, and so on — must be resisted. Therefore Zahnd developed the “Family of 4” HCD concept (Figure 5.1), which is a set of innovations that are installed, as a group, into each home in a target village. It includes a pit latrine, a smokeless metal stove, basic indoor lighting (through a locally available and readilyutilised renewable energy resources such as solar, hydro or wind), and access to a safe drinking water system. The “Family of 4” HCD approach addresses the key features of village life which are responsible for primary health problems. The synergistic-benefits of the components are consequently many times more powerful than individual projects, such as “just” light, or “just” clean water, or “just” better sanitary conditions when implemented alone. 5.3.1.1 Pit Latrine (1st Pillar of the “Family of 4” HCD Concept) It is common that people in the villages defecate wherever a free and private place can be found. Due to lack of awareness of the importance of hygiene

86 The Role of Renewable Energy Technology in Holistic Community Development

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Fig. 5.1 The “Family of 4” consists of a pit latrine, a smokeless metal stove, elementary indoor lighting for each household and access for each family to clean drinking water from the village based tap stands.

and sanitation, a shortage of land, and with no local examples to imitate, the pit latrine is not a traditional part of the infrastructure for a household. In the “Family of 4” model, the pit latrine is the first component to be built (Figures 5.2, 5.3). The installation of the smokeless metal stove and the basic indoor lighting system does not proceed until the less exciting, lower prestige work of building the latrine has been finished. Because human waste is considered to be “polluting” in the local ideology, few people want to be associated with the building of a latrine or its maintenance. Encouraging people to overcome this set of beliefs and associated habits has been one of the largest challenges we face. An approach that we have found useful is to increase awareness and education about the issues surrounding hygiene and sanitation with posters and brochures we designed as well as with songs written in the local dialect, using images familiar to people from their own valley. We also emphasise these messages using the same materials (and more) in the NFE-classes. Gradually, people see the need to use and properly maintain their pit latrine. As a result,

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Fig. 5.2 The first “pillar” of the “Family of 4” is always the Pit Latrine (PL), one per family, as preventative health care through improved hygienic conditions and environment is a crucial pre-requisite for sustainable development.

the walking paths, the surrounding village fields, and the streams are cleaner than ever before, greatly minimising the risk of the spread of diarrhoea and other diseases.

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5.3.1.2 Smokeless Metal Stove (2nd Pillar of the “Family of 4” HCD Concept) In terms of energy, Nepal’s traditional biomass fuel consumption represents 85%–90% of all energy services nationwide and 100% in remote mountain areas such as Humla. An open-fireplace with no chimney and a house full of smoke is “normal” in Humla. The daily firewood consumption is 20kg–40kg (Zahnd, 2012), and the indoor air pollution has a direct chronic impact on the health of women and children in particular (ITDG n.d.). These cause respiratory diseases, asthma, blindness and heart disease (IEA, 2002), resulting in the extremely low life-expectancy for women and the high death rate of children