Global Warming and China's Environmental Diplomacy [1 ed.] 9781617280702, 9781604560169

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Copyright © 2008. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved. Global Warming and China's Environmental Diplomacy, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2008. ProQuest Ebook Central,

Copyright © 2008. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved. Global Warming and China's Environmental Diplomacy, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2008. ProQuest Ebook Central,

Copyright © 2008. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

GLOBAL WARMING AND CHINA’S ENVIRONMENTAL DIPLOMACY

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GLOBAL WARMING AND CHINA’S ENVIRONMENTAL DIPLOMACY

Copyright © 2008. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

YU HONGYUAN

Nova Science Publishers, Inc. New York

Global Warming and China's Environmental Diplomacy, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2008. ProQuest Ebook Central,

Copyright © 2008 by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means: electronic, electrostatic, magnetic, tape, mechanical photocopying, recording or otherwise without the written permission of the Publisher. For permission to use material from this book please contact us: Telephone 631-231-7269; Fax 631-231-8175 Web Site: http://www.novapublishers.com NOTICE TO THE READER The Publisher has taken reasonable care in the preparation of this book, but makes no expressed or implied warranty of any kind and assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. No liability is assumed for incidental or consequential damages in connection with or arising out of information contained in this book. The Publisher shall not be liable for any special, consequential, or exemplary damages resulting, in whole or in part, from the readers‘ use of, or reliance upon, this material.

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Global warming and China's environmental diplomacy / Yu Hongyuan, editor. p. cm. ISBN H%RRN 1. Environmental policy--China. 2. Global warming--Government policy--China. 3. Greenhouse gases--Government policy--China. 4. Climatic changes--Government policy--China. 5. Global warming--Government policy--International cooperation. 6. Greenhouse gases--Government policy--International cooperation. 7. Climatic changes--Government policy--International cooperation. 8. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) I. Yu, Hongyuan. QC981.8.G56G5755 2008 2007036472 363.738'740951--dc22

Published by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. New York

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CONTENTS Preface

ix

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Executive Summary for Global Warming and China’S Environmental Diplomacy xi I. Literature Review and Methodological Setting in this Book xii II. From Fragmented to Coordinated Authoritarianism xiv III. The International Regime Theory in Chinese Climate Change Policy xvi IV. China‘s Climate Diplomacy Field: the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) xviii V. International-Domestic Implications for China and Global Climate Change xx Chapter 1

Introduction 1 1.1. Background of the Interaction Between the UNFCCC and China 3 1.2. Research Proposal on the UNFCCC and the Development of Foreign Policy Coordination in China 6 1.3. Research Case 8 1.4. Hypobook and Research Methods 10

Chapter 2

Theoretical Background for the Environmental Regimes 2.1. Key Concepts in my Book 2.2. Review on Related Literature 2.3. International Regimes and China 2.4. Summary and Conclusion

Chapter 3

The Background of Global Environmental Regimes 37 3.1. The UNFCCC and its Constituents 38 3.2. The Rise and Development of the Environmental Regime-UNFCCC 41

Chapter 4

China and Global Warming 4.1. The Fast Growth of Carbon Emissions in the Developing World 4.2. Impacts of Climate Change in China and Beyond 4.3. China's Domestic Response to Climate Change 4.3. China's International Response to Climate Change 4.4. Explanations for China's Responses to Climate Change

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15 15 20 27 33

47 48 49 52 55 59

vi Chapter 5

Chapter 6

Chapter 7

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Chapter 8

Contents Green Challenges for China and the US Environmental Relations 5.1. The Rising of Environmental Politics and Security 5.2. Environmental Policy in China and the US 5.3. Environmental Cooperation Between China and the U.S. 5.4. The Divergence Between China and the US in Combating Green Challenges Security Challenges of Global Warming and Implications for China and EU 6.1. Security Challenges of Climate Change in Asia-Pacific and Europe 6.2. EU and Climate Change 6.3. China-EU Cooperation on Climate change 6.4. Conflicts between China and EU on Climate Change Issues

63 63 64 66 66 69 70 71 74 77

Interests-Based Explanation for Environmental Diplomacy 7.1. The Global Environmental Facility (GEF) and the Interests Imposed by the GEF on China 7.2 The GEF and the Foreign Policy Coordination Process in China 7.3. Summaries

81

Knowledge-Based Explanation for Environmental Diplomacy 8.1. The Issues Negotiated in the Conference of Parties (COP) of the UNFCCC and China‘s Policy 8.2. Foreign Policy Coordination on the Issues Negotiated in the Conference of Parties 8.3. Conclusions

95

83 88 92

96 100 110

Chapter 9

Domestic Institutions Based Explanation for Environmental Diplomacy113 9.1. The UNFCCC as the Determinant Factor for the Creation of Foreign Policy Coordination in China 114 9.2. The Domestic Institutions for the UNFCCC 117 9.3. The Working Procedures of the China National Coordination Committee for Climate 121 9.4. The Divergence in Foreign Policy Coordination Institution 125

Chapter 10

Conclusion 10.1.The Environmental Diplomacy and International Environmental System 10.2. The Conclusions From my Empirical Study 10.3. The Implications From my Empirical Study 10.3. Conclusion

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129 131 139 142 149

Contents Chapter 11

Chapter 12

Chapter 13

Two Logics of Climate Change Games: Environmental Governance and Know-How Competition 11.1. Two Logics of Climate Change Games 11.2. The Logic of Collective Action in Climate Change 11.3. The Logic of International Competition for New Energy 11.4. The Implications of the Two Logics of Climate Change Games for China Conclusion The Future Trend of International Environment System and China’s Environmental Diplomacy 12.1. The Concept of International Environmental System 12.2. The History of International Environmental System 12.3. The Institutions and Norms in International Environmental System 12. 4. The Difficulties and Problems for the International Environmental System 12.5. The Future Trend of International Environmental System 12.6. International Energy System Developing Countries and Climate Change Negotiations 13.1. Increasing Role of Emerging Economies and Climate Politics 13.2. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies Taken by New Emerging Economies 13.3. Analysis of the Coping Strategies of New Emerging Economies

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Appendix I

vii

151 152 155 161 165 168 171 171 172 174 177 178 180 191 192 197 203 207

In the Belly of the Princeton Report: Fresh and Strategic Thinking on the Relationship Between the Global Environment and Energy The Role of the U.S. in the Relation on Energy and Environment The Significant Role of China in Balancing Global Energy use and Environmental Protection Conclusion

207 208 209 211

Appendix II

213

Appendix III

221

Appendix IV

223

Glossary

225

Bibliography Online Resources Index

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229 244 245

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PREFACE It is well known that international regimes may change Chinese policymaking to some extent. However, two questions have to be faced by political science scholars. First, what aspects of Chinese policy-making are affected by international regimes: policy-making structure and model, institutional arrangements or only some of the policy-makers‘ personnel factors? Second, in what way or by what intermediate variables do the international regimes function when changing Chinese policy-making? Since the early 1990s, the above two hot topics have attracted much scholarly attention in Chinese politics. Nevertheless, until now, only a few scholars had worked out the distinctive relations between them, and even fewer people worked on the bureaucratic politics level. By explaining and evaluating the development of policymaking coordination in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), I demonstrate the argument that international regimes have contributed to the development of coordination in Chinese Policymaking, taking the UNFCCC as a departure. Over the years, I have made endeavors in the fields of international environmental cooperation, and have extensive firsthand experience in formulating environmental regimes on global warming, as well as a detailed research background in environmental NGOs in the Chinese context. In December 1997, just after the signing of the Kyoto Protocol, I found a part time research job in the Administrative Center for China‘s Agenda 21. I joined two MSTC (Ministry of Science and Technology) projects: Response to Global Warming and Comparative Study on International Sustainable Development Strategies. Owing to the two projects, I gained not only environmental knowledge but also my research interest–climate change regime study, and the latter is greatly valuable for my future research. In August 2000, I was granted the honor of enrolling at the Chinese University of Hong Kong and became a Ph.D. student of the Department of Government and Public Administration. I had been a research associate in a Project on Global Environmental Policy and Chinese Environmental Values at Lingnan University of Hong Kong in 2004. Currently, I am a Deputy Director of the Department of International Organizations and Laws, Shanghai Institute for International Studies (SIIS). The SIIS is not only a well-known and comprehensive academic organization, but also one of most influential think-tanks to serve China's external relations. I owe much of my knowledge and intellectual progress to Professor Yang Jiemian‘s careful encouragement. With my solid background, demonstrated capability and my experience, I am confident that this book will make some contribution to the study of international relations.

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Yu Hongyuan

I would like to thank the Shanghai Institute for International Studies and the Chinese University of Hong Kong for offering me the best research and study environment to finish my PhD study and write this book. In my book preparation process, Professor Yang Jiemian of the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, Professor Wu Guoguang of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and Professor Harris of the Lingnan University of Hong Kong gave me tremendous help and guidance in my choice of topic, proposal shaping and book writing. I owe my knowledge and intellectual progress to them. In preparing this book, Professor Michel Davis gave me a lot of useful and careful help, particularly good advice on details, and I am very grateful for his long consistent concern about my research. Professor Kuan Hsin Chi helped me narrow down my research focus, shape my concepts and review my book. Professor Wilson Wong gave me a lot of kind advice on my research proposal. Professor Qin Yaqing in Beijing Foreign Relations College and Professor Shi Yinhong in Remin University gave me a lot of useful advice on building analytical context, and they answered a lot of questions on international regime theory. Zhang Maoming in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs provided me with background knowledge on Chinese foreign policy making. Professor Pan Jiahua of the China Academy of Social Science provided me many opportunities to contact the experts and officials related to my book topic. Two negotiators in the UNFCCC: Professor Zhou Ji and Tian Chunxiu, helped me master a lot information on China‘s behavior toward the Conference of Parties. Lee Rui, in the Ministry of Finance, provided information on the role of a ―window agent‖ in China‘s environmental policy. I also appreciate all the help the officials and experts below gave me in my field work in Beijing, and for providing me many materials on China‘s climate change policy making: Professor Ding Yihui (former President of IPCC), Chen Yue (Renmin University), Gao GuangSheng (Committee of Planning and Development), Ma Aimin (Committee of Development and Planning), Huang Jing (Ministry of Science and Technology), Zhang Jiayuan (Ministry of Science and Technology), Lu Xuedu (Ministry of Science and Technology), Mu Guangfeng (State Environmental Protection Administration), Zhou Hailin (Ministry of Science and Technology), Wang Wenyuan (China Academy for Science), Wang Yi (China Academy for Science) and Zhao Jun (Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Finally, I would like to express my deepest thanks to my parents, my wife and my son; their earnest support helped me conquer the hard work and challenges in my research career.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FOR GLOBAL WARMING AND CHINA’S ENVIRONMENTAL DIPLOMACY Global warming is a serious threat to human security. It not only leads to environmental degradation and resources scarcity, which may complicate geopolitics and even trigger traditional conflicts, but to increasingly frequent natural disasters that pose direct threat to human lives and properties. The Fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of 2007 has concluded that human activities are adding Greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere, and that this process is having a discernable impact on the global eco-system by raising global temperatures. The preponderance of evidence on global warming is indisputable and the evolution of climate change presents China with major security challenges to which it cannot be immune. In fact, in most cases China will be among the worst affected due to its vulnerable geographic position and economic structure. As China contributes to global economic growth, the country has simultaneously taken on the inevitable role of being, potentially, the largest polluter in the world. For a while, scholars used climate change policy-making in China as a rare, yet strong case to argue effects of international institution on domestic politics. Therefore, recent dramatic shift in China‘s participation in Bali Climate Change Conference (2007) came as a shock. Since the 1980s, Chinese leaders have paid increasing attention to environmental protection and in particular have been cognizant of the hazards brought about by climate change. However, China is still a so-called ―non-Annex I country‖ in global environmental governance, as it has not committed any immediate concrete responsibility for reducing green house gases (GHG). As China contributes to global economic growth, the country has simultaneously taken on the inevitable role of being, potentially, the largest polluter in the world. If China continues in unfettered pursuit of its immediate goal of economic development, its moral reputation will become severely damaged. It is also likely to lose the environmental loans it receives from world bodies. The alternative of pursuing environmental-protection policies based on international collective norms might, however, provide Beijing with a basis for securing future collaboration with the world in combating environmental disasters and for acquiring a reputation as a responsible state in the global community. Rationality should guide Beijing to be respectful of international norms in this regard. The problem, however, that China faces is whether its current political system allows it, both ideologically and practically, to comply with international standards of climate change control.

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Thus, domestic environmental compliance and coordination, particularly for evolution of China‘s policy Coordination in Climate Change, is crucial for human battle against climate change. The Marrakech Accord argues, "National coordinating mechanisms and focal points and national coordinating entities have an important role to play in ensuring coordination at the country and regional levels and may serve as the focal point for coordinating capacity1 building activities" Climate change is too complex, or demanding, for a single bureaucratic unit in China to handle and comprehend. Hence there remain disparities among the views held by different Chinese bureaucracies on reducing GHG emissions, the principles of equity and justice for such reduction, the balance between China‘s sustainable development and moral capacity building, and so on. In this book, the author endeavors to sort out possible explanations for 1) whether the global standard plays a role in China‘s climate change policy; and 2) how China‘s climate change policy is being coordinated, on the grounds that the need for compliance to international norms is acknowledged. The author interviewed forty-three officials and experts from more than twenty bureaucracies and institutions in 2003 and 2007.

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I. LITERATURE REVIEW AND METHODOLOGICAL SETTING IN THIS BOOK There was little relevant data showing how international factors influences China‘s climate diplomacy. This information is only obtainable using a qualitative approach, such as documentary research, in-depth interviews, field research and the completion of questionnaires. In an attempt to determine whether the standard of global governance was the real driving force behind China‘s climate change policy-making, we interviewed forty-three officials and experts from more than twenty government agencies and institutions in 2003 and 2007. Other than an historical analysis, there are no relevant data in the literature showing how policy coordination on climate change in China is organized and functions. This information is only obtainable using a qualitative approach, such as documentary research, in-depth interviews, field research and the completion of questionnaires. In an attempt to determine whether the standard of global governance was the real driving force behind China‘s climate change policy-making, we interviewed forty-three officials and experts from more than twenty bureaucracies and institutions. The most important of these included the: National Coordination Committee on Climate Change National Development and Reform Committee Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ministry of Finance Ministry of Construction Ministry of Communications Ministry of Science and Technology 1

The UNFCCC, "the Marrakech Accords and Marrakech Declaration." . Accessed on November 12, 2002. pp. 10-14. Accessed on Febuary 12, 2008.

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Ministry of Water Resources Ministry of Environmental Protection State Forestry Administration China Meteorological Administration China Academy of Science China Academy of Social Science State Ocean Administration Peking University; Renmin University; Tsinghua University. The respondents were asked a set of standard questions on foreign influence. On completion of the questionnaires, interviewees were asked open-ended supplementary questions, which varied according to their relationship to foreign policy making on climate change and the UNFCCC. Respondents interviewed later were asked for answers based on results from earlier interviews. Based on my empirical studies, three intervening variables can explain international influences on the development of China‘s climate diplomacy: Firstly, the survey on the attitudes of Chinese officials and scholars on climate change will include the questions such as ―the essence of climate change ―and ―global climate change governance‖. Secondly, the interaction between China and global climate change regimes will be emphasized in the fieldwork. The questions will include ―What kind of role should China play in international climate change negotiations‖,‖ substantive obligations and opportunities at home and abroad for China‖ and etc. Thirdly, climate change policy coordination is significant for China to join global battle against global warming. Through the survey, we should learn how and why information communication and learning happen during policymaking, and whether mutual trust and consensus on climate policy will be achieved. On completion of the questionnaires, interviewees were asked open-ended supplementary questions, which varied according to their relationship to foreign policy coordination on climate change and the UNFCCC. Some of the interviewees were questioned several times, and therefore may be described technically as ―informants‖. Respondents interviewed late in the fieldwork were asked for answers based on results from earlier interviews. Our most important informants and our primary research came from the domestic institution that coordinates China‘s climate change policy, namely the NCCCC. We have attempted to highlight the influence of international climate change norms, revolving around the UNFCCC, on the development of the NCCCC. We asked our informants to elaborate on the following: 1. Preference/knowledge/interests of professionals and decision-makers; 2. Interests of different bureaucracies; and 3. Coordination of climate change policy among different bureaucracies before and after the founding of the NCCCC. Global climate change collective action is still at the negotiation stage, and has a potential and uncertain impact on China‘s climate diplomacy from the explanatory contexts of interests, knowledge and domestic institutions.Although field-study played a major role in this work, the importance of documentary study cannot be underestimated. Our document

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analysis primarily focused on United Nations‘ documents relating to the UNFCCC, research reports and working books published by NGOs, and environmental policy documents relating to The State-Group National Coordination Committee for Climate published by the Chinese 2 government. Other primary sources in China consulted include various research publications, newsbooks, journals and Internet material on climate change. In our investigation, we arbitrarily used three indicators: ―bargaining‖, ―consensus building‖ (tongyi koujing) and ―final policy-making‖ to evaluate the dependent variables (foreign policy coordination) in China. The UNFCCC, as an independent variable, is studied by its norms and rules listed in related protocols, as well as its issues-resolving procedures like the Conference of the Parties (COP) and the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

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II. FROM FRAGMENTED TO COORDINATED AUTHORITARIANISM The problem, which this book aims to answer, is: how China‘s climate change policy is being coordinated, on the grounds that the need for compliance to international climate change norms is acknowledged. Thus, we have to answer how Chinese policies are currently formulated at first? Most scholars, such as Kenneth Lieberthal and Michel Oksenberg, in referring to the domestic Chinese institution stress the structure of bureaucratic authority and the reality of bureaucratic behaviour to theorize what is known as the ―fragmented 3 authoritarianism‖ model. This model suggests that policy-making in China is not coordinated, as authority below the very top is fragmented, stratified and disjointed. Therefore, the arrangements for negotiation, bargaining, power exchange or reciprocity and 4 consensus-building among affected bureaucracies function unsystematically. Carol Lee Harrin and Suisheng Zhao suggest that ―institutional pluralism‖ in China is therefore characterized by conflict among political leaders and bureaucrats, who must be reckoned with 5 mainly according to the institutional resources provided by their offices. It is not a new concept to challenge the fragmented authoritarian assumption, however. Melanie Manion, for instance, once suggested ―policy coordinating mechanisms are particularly important to policymaking in the Chinese system because authority is formally structured so as to require the cooperation of many bureaucratic units, nested in separate

2

United Nations Conference Reports on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro, 1992; [2] UNFCCC, 1992-2000, United Nations: Report of the Conference of the Parties on its 1st to 9th Session. 3 See Kenneth Lieberthal, ―Introduction: The ‗Fragmented Authoritarianism‘ Model and Its Limitations‖, in Kenneth Lieberthal and David Lampton, eds., Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in Post-Mao China (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1992), p.1-30; Kenneth Lieberthal and Michel Oksenberg, ―Structure and Process : An Overview‖, in Kenneth Lieberthal and Michel Oksenberg, Policymaking in China: Leaders, Structures, and Processes (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1988), p.3-34. 4 Ibid, pp 2-6; Lieberthal and Oksenberg , Policymaking in China, 1988, p.23-24. 5 Carol Lee Harrin and Suisheng Zhao, eds., Decision Making in Deng’s China Perspectives from Insiders (New York: M.E. Sharpe Armonk, 1995), p.240-242. Also David Lampton, ―A Plum for a Peach: Bargaining, Interest, and Bureaucratic Politics in China‖, in Lieberthal and Lampton, Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in Post-Mao China, 1992, p.38.

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6

chains of authority.‖ As we have observed, China‘s policy-making, at least in the area of climate change, is actually highly coordinated and is subjected more to international rather than domestic constraints. When Beijing wishes to reach a consensus that follows international regimes and their norms, different bureaucratic sections are able to communicate and bargain among themselves under a formal and organized system. In other words, international standards have definitely influenced Chinese domestic policy on climate change, and implementation is brought about through policy coordination among different governmental and semi-governmental units. What actually is policy coordination? According to academics like John Burns, it can be ―conceived of in minimalist terms to involve no more than avoiding direct conflicts among programs, and policy coordination is the process by which two or more policies or programs 7 are matched or harmonized to achieve shared goals and objects.‖ Nina Halpern sees it as something more macro, which involves: All the management of policy decision process so that tradeoffs among policy interests and goals are recognized, analyzed, and presented to top leadership to make decisions; and the oversight of official actions, especially those that follow major high-level decisions, must reflect the balance among policy goals, that the top leadership and his responsible officials have decided upon.8

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Having looked at various definitions, we have chosen for the purposes of our research to define policy coordination as follows: (1) Independent decision-making by ministries; (2) Communication with other ministries (information exchange); (3) Consultation with other ministries (a two-way process); (4) Avoiding divergence among ministries; (5) Inter-ministerial search for agreement (seeking consensus); and (6) Arbitration of inter-organizational differences.9

6

Melanie Manion, ―Politics in China‖, in Gabriel A. Almond; G. Bingham Powell; Kaare Strom; and Russell J. Dalton, eds., Comparative Politics Today: A World View (New York: Addison Wesley Longman, 2000), p.449, emphasis added. 7 John P. Burns, Horizontal Government: Policy Coordination in China, book prepared for the International Conference on Governance in Asia: Culture, Ethics, Institutional Reform and Policy Change, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, (December 2002), p.1-2. 8 I.M. Destler, Making Foreign Economic Policy (Washington D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1980), p.8. 9 Categorization of these points is inspired by a document prepared by the OECD Public Management Service, on behalf of the Secretary-General of the OECD, 1995, p.5-6.

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III. THE INTERNATIONAL REGIME THEORY IN CHINESE CLIMATE CHANGE POLICY As a world economic powerhouse and polluter, China is central to regional and global efforts in fighting global warming, particularly in the Post-Kyoto climate negotiations. For those who concerned about the environmental threats to human and national security, China is 10 arguably the most important Asian Pacific country. As a byproduct of nearly three decades of economic expansion, China is now experiencing widespread and often acute environmental 11 problems with severe local, national and regional consequences. It produces vast amount of GHGs, especially carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels (i.e., coal, oil and natural gas). Due to its rapid economic growth and stagnant energy efficiency, China has become the second largest national source of GHGs, and it is expected to surpass the United States by the 12 year 2020. Since the 1990s, China, along with the rest of the world, has paid increasing attention to environmental protection and the Chinese society has grown more and more aware of the menace brought about by climate change. However, as China continues to see itself as a developing country in the global environmental governance, it refuses to commit to any immediate and concrete obligation for reducing GHGs. Since the 1990s, many scholars have examined the influence of international regimes on 13 China. Interestingly, the international agreement that has started the process of regulating countries‘ emissions of GHGs, the UNFCCC, originally did not require China, classified as a developing country by the treaty, to limit its emission, neither at that moment nor in the future. China‘s attempt to conserve energy has been more motivated by domestic concerns, such as an intention to reduce its heavy reliance on imported fossil fuels. Before the 1990s, the government had made almost no effort towards reducing GHGs and lowering China‘s impact on global warming. It is the gradual interaction between China and the outside world that has persuaded Beijing to apply the principles of the UNFCCC in domestic climate change policies. As Miranda Schreurs and Elizabeth Economy argued: The internationalization of environmental policy formation is not just a matter of a state responding to the emergence of new kinds of problems 10

11

Some of these ideas and discussions of other Asian Pacific countries can be found in Paul G. Harris, 'Environmental Politics and Foreign Policy in East Asia: A Survey of China and Japan', in Paul G. Harris (ed), Confronting Environmental Change in East and Southeast Asia (London: Earthscan/United Nations University Press, 2004). On environmental security, see Lorraine Elliott, 'Environmental Security in East Asia: Defining a Common Agenda', in Paul G. Harris (ed), International Environmental Cooperation (Boulder: University Press of Colorado, 2002), pp. 31-52.

See Vaclav Smil, China's Environmental Crisis (Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe, 1993); Japan Environmental Council, Shunichi Teranishi, and Takehisa Awaji (eds), The State of the Environment in Asia 1999/2000 (Tokyo: Springer-Verlag, 2000), pp. 98-100; The World Bank, The World Bank and climate change: East Asia (Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 1997), < http://www.worldbank.org /html/extdr/ climchng/eapclim.htm>. Accessed on 2 April 2003.

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See the UNFCCC's Document, 'GHG Emissions and Reduction Targets', . Accessed on 15 October 2003. China's Office of National Coordination Committee for Climate Change (ed), 'China's GHG emission in the World', . Accessed on 15 October 2003. 13 Samuel Kim, China and World (Boulder: Westview Press, 1989, 1992, 1998); Michel Oksenberg and Economy, China Joins the World (New York: The Foreign Relations Council, 1997); Alistair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross, Engaging China: the Management of an Emerging Power (London; New York: Routledge, 1999).

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or new ways of viewing old ones. The internationalization of environmental politics also reflects the efforts by international actors and institutions to reach down into the state to set the domestic policy agenda and influence the policy formation and implementation processes.14

Only from this perspective would it make sense to look at international agreements on climate change in which China is a signatory party. Indeed, much of the explanation for China‘s high degree of domestic policy coordination on climate change reflects the impact of the UNFCCC, and the international climate change regime of which it is a part. As Economy puts it again, ―the requirements of the regime result in the proliferation of new domestic 15 actors or the establishment of new bureaucratic linkages that influence policy outcome.‖ She further argues ―international regimes spur the emergence of new bureaucratic arrangements to manage China‘s involvement in the regimes and encourage the introduction of new actors from the scientific and expert communities into prominent policy-making 16 positions.‖ However, the assumption made by Economy and her colleagues has limitations. Economy and Pearson once described four factors relevant to the study of the relationship between international regimes and Chinese domestic policy-making:

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(1) Transmission of new ideas and knowledge; (2) New domestic bureaucratic institutions; (3) Training opportunities, financial transfers, and technological advances; and (4) Scientific and expert communities.17 However, they have not looked at the distinctive relationship between international regimes and Chinese bureaucratic politics, but assumed the authoritarian fragmented model to be universally applicable in Chinese policy-making. As a result, the coordinating role that is provided by new institutions indirectly set up by international regimes has been neglected. This is precisely the area of interaction that this article wishes to explore.

14

Elizabeth Economy and Miranda A. Schreurs, ―Domestic and International Linkages in Environmental Politics‖, in Miranda A. Schreurs and Elizabeth Economy, eds., The Internationalization of Environmental Protection (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1997), p.6. 15 Elizabeth Economy, ―The Impact Of International Regimes on China's Foreign Policy-Making Perspectives and Policies but Only to a Point‖, in David Lampton, ed., The Making of Chinese Foreign and security Policy in the Era of Reform 1978-2000 (Stanford, California, Stanford University 2001), p.236. 16 Economy, ―The Impact of International Regimes on China‘s Foreign Policy-Making‖, 2001, p.251. 17 Ibid, p.236-257. Margaret M. Pearson, ―The Major Multilateral Economic Institutions Engage China‖, in Engaging China: the management of an emerging power, ed. Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross (New York: Routledge, 1999), p.207-234.

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IV. CHINA’S CLIMATE DIPLOMACY FIELD: THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (UNFCCC)

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How has China responded to climate change in its compliance with global standards? Broadly speaking, China‘s climate change diplomacy has sought to protect China‘s sovereignty and national interests18, to acquire foreign aid and technical assistance, to promote China‘s economic growth under Scientific Outlook on Development, and to enhance its role as a responsible power and the leader of the developing world. In order to cope with these agendas, China has responded prudently and incrementally towards growing international influences, particularly from the UNFCCC. To some extent, China and the UNFCCC have become interdependent on the issue of climate change. China's climate change diplomacy holds the following propositions: first, sustainable development is the most effective response to climate change; second, the UNFCCC provides a fundamental and effective framework for international cooperation on the issue; third, developed countries should take the lead in adopting measures to reduce emission after 2012 in continued compliance with the principle of ―common but differentiated responsibilities.‖19 Meanwhile, the international community may explore a more pragmatic and flexible mechanism, promote international technical cooperation and enhance international capacity for coping with climate change. The most important platform for China‘s diplomacy is in the multilateral negotiations. According to Mancur Olson's theory of collective action, major power interaction decides the rules and legitimacy of collective action. In reality, the development of UNFCCC depends upon the participation of China which plays a proactive role in the so called ―G77 + China‖ negotiation bloc. In review, we can divide the global climate change regime-building process into three stages: 1. Before 1992 the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: this stage focused on a consensus of international climate change regime building. 2. From the 1992 Rio Summit to the 1997 Kyoto Conference: this stage focused on the legally binding mechanisms for reducing GHG emissions. 3. After the 1997 Kyoto Conference: this stage focuses on the implementation and ratification of Kyoto Protocol. 20 18

Elizabeth, Economy, 'China's Environmental Diplomacy', in Samuel S. Kim (ed), China and the World: Chinese Foreign Policy Faced the New Millennium (Boulder: Westview Press, 1998), p. 264. 19 The principle of ―common but differentiated responsibilities‖ is the global consensus in the UNFCCC. This principle means that the industrialized, wealthy countries of the world bear responsibility for global warming because of their historic emissions of greenhouse gases for more than three hundred years. Developed countries‘ per capita emissions remain far above those of the developing countries, meaning that their responsibility continues. See UNFCCC, 9 May 1992, at http://www.unfccc.int. 20

1992

1994

Table 1.: the Development of International Climate Regime Rio Earth Summit - "Rio signatories over 150 countries to the UNFCCC committed to achieving "stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system." Entry into force of the UNFCCC

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China has been involved since the 1990s in the foundation, negotiations and implementations of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. In the first stage, from about 1990 to mid-1992, China worked together with other countries to formulate the UNFCCC. China made important contributions to the consensus on the principle of ―common but differentiated responsibilities‖ which allowed the UNFCCC to come into force in 1994. The convention was adopted in principle by China on May 9, 1992 and was formally opened for signature at the UN Conference on Environment and Development the same year in Rio de Janeiro, where it received 155 signatures, including China‘s.21 Finally, China‘s National People‘s Congress ratified the UNFCCC in November 1994. The greatest subsequent challenges for China in the conferences of the parties to the UNFCCC were the Kyoto Protocol and the so-called flexible mechanisms for its implementation, such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), joint implementation (JI, whereby polluters can offset their emissions with projects in other countries) and international emissions trading schemes (IETS).22 The EU persuaded China and other developing countries to accept these environment trading systems. The third stage ranged from late-1997, when the parties to the UNFCCC agreed to the Kyoto Protocol, to the present. During this period, Chinese diplomacy has focused on two issues: (1) how to improve international environmental trading mechanisms and (2) preventing the Kyoto Protocol from becoming a failure because of American rejection. At the World Summit on Sustainable Development held in Johannesburg in 2002, as a gesture following up on the UNFCCC and to highlight the absence of ratification from the Bush Administration, former premier Zhu Rongji ratified the Kyoto Protocol.23 China showed further interest in the flexibility mechanisms like the CDM. From COP8 to COP12, China gradually formed its position in these negotiations as follows:

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1995 1997

1998 2001

2002 2005

2007

Table 1. Continued First Conference of the Parties (COP1), Berlin, Germany, Berlin Mandate, ― Common but Differential Responsibilities‖ for developing countries(China plus Group 77) COP3, Kyoto - Over 160 countries sign the Kyoto Protocol. Industrialized signatories commit to binding GHG reductions of a global average of 5.2% below 1990 levels for the period of 20082012 COP 4, Buenos Aires, Argentina - Parties set deadline to decide on Kyoto rules. The implementation of reducing the GHG in developing countries. COP7, Marrakech the 165 nations endorsing the Marrakech consensus have adopted guidelines for implementing the Kyoto Protocol. COP8, New Delhi , China ratify the Kyoto protocol The Second World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in September 2002. COP11and MOP1，Montreal, Canada. The Kyoto protocol came into effect. The Montreal Action Plan is an agreement to extend the life of the Kyoto Protocol beyond its 2012 expiration date and negotiate deeper cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions. COP-13 and MOP-3 was held in Bali, Indonesia. The negotiation focused on the post 2012 framework on GHG reduction.

21

The UNFCCC, ―Issues: A Brief History of the Climate Change Process‖, http://www.UNFCCC.int/cop7/ briefhistory.html, Accessed on November 12, 2006. 22 Richard Cooper, ―Toward a Real Global Warming Treaty‖, Foreign Affairs, 77, 2 (1998), pp. 66-80. 23 Jiang Weixin, ―Presentation in the Cop8‖, Renmin Ribao, November 11, 2002.

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Yu Hongyuan ―1. The UNFCCC provides a fundamental and effective framework for international cooperation in response to climate change. Compliance with the principles enshrined in the Convention, particularly the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities is of great significance. 2. Countermeasures against climate change should be taken under the framework of sustainable development. 3. Great importance should be attached to the role of technology in the combat against climate change. 4. Mitigation of and adaptation to climate change should be given equal consideration. 5. The international community should focus on taking concrete actions against climate change. Win-win international cooperation in this regard, like CDM should be encouraged.‖24

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Based on above beliefs, Chinese president Hu Jintao put forward four proposals to tackling climate change at the 2007 APEC Summit, ―First, cooperation is indispensable to global efforts to tackle climate change. Second, efforts are needed to pursue sustainable development, as climate change is ultimately a development issue and it can only be addressed in the course of sustainable development. Third, the UNFCCC should be upheld as the core mechanism for addressing climate change. The Convention and its Kyoto Protocol constitute the legal basis for international cooperation on climate change and are the most authoritative, universal and comprehensive international frameworks for the issue. Fourth, efforts should be made to promote scientific and technological innovation, as science and technology are important means for tackling climate change.‖25 In practice, China clearly follows this line of guidance.

V. INTERNATIONAL-DOMESTIC IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA AND GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE To specifically address the policy coordination issues of climate change, in 1998 the State Council of the Chinese government created the National Coordination Committee for Climate Change. The committee was given responsibility for the coordination and formulation of policies and measures related to climate change. Chaired by the State Development Planning Commission, the NCCCC is composed of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and 13 government departments (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Development and Planning, Ministry of Science and Technology, State Economic and Trade Commission, China Meteorological Administration, Ministry of Finance, State Environmental Protection Administration, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Communications, Ministry of Water

24

Office of China National Coordination Committee on Climate Change,"Statement by Mr.Jiang Weixin at the Joint High-level Segment of COP12","Statement by H. E. Mr. Liu Jiang, head of the Chinese Delegation at the Sixth Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC",, accessed on OCT. 3, 2007. 25 China Ministry of Foreign Affairs,.

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Resources, Ministry of Construction, State Forestry Administration, and State Oceanic Administration), giving it an important coordinating function.26 In 2008, according to the website of China's Office of National Coordination Committee for Climate Change, ―Update National Coordination Committee on Climate Change, approved by the State Council, assumed office in October, 2003, Ma Kai, Chairman of National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is posted as the chairman of the Committee ; Liu Jiang, Vice Chairman (ministerial level) of NDRC is posted as Executive Deputy Chairman ; Deputy Chairmen are Zhang Yesui, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Deng Nan, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Qin Dahe, Administrator of China Meteorological Administration and Zhu Guangyao, Deputy Minister of State Environmental Protection Administration. National Development and Reform Commission is responsible for coordination on Climate Change Policies and actions adopted by various departments; Ministry of Foreign Affairs takes the lead for participating in international climate change negotiation; State Meteorological Administration takes the lead for participating in the work of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The Office of the National Coordination Committee on Climate Change is situated in Department of Regional Economy of NDRC and responsible for routine work of the Committee.‖27

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Interest-Based Explanantaion Environmental funds are playing an increasingly important role in China. John P. Burns argues there are three interest-based incentives for China‘s foreign policy: ―fiscal pressures, economic globalization, and economic development.‖28 In climate change area, Zhang Zhihong argues that ―the UNFCCC generates tangible and intangible interests for China. The tangible benefits include external financial and technical assistance, transfer of advanced, environmentally friendly technologies, foreign investments, and management know-how. The intangible benefits are likely to be just as important. China can boost its image as an environmentally responsible nation to further its foreign policy goals, including cementing solidarity with developing countries and enhancing relations with developed countries and multilateral agencies‖.29 I focus on the material incentives from the GEF and CDM. The projects, funds and loans attract many bureaucracies to intermeddle in the climate change policy making. The 26

See: YU Hongyuan,―Knowledge and Climate Change Policy Coordination in China.‖ East Asia: An International Quarterly. vol. 21, no. 3(2005). ―Global Environmental Regimes and Policy Coordination in China.‖ Journal of Chinese Political Science, vol. 9, no. 2, 2004. 27 China's Office of National Coordination Committee for Climate Change,"Brief Introduction of National Coordination Committee on Climate Change",http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/en/Public_Right.asp?class=25. 28 John P. Burns, Horizontal Government: Policy Coordination in China, book prepared for the International Conference on Governance in Asia: Culture, Ethics, Institutional Reform and Policy Change, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, December 2002, pp. 2-3. 29 Zhang Zhihong: ―Forces Behind China‘s Policy,‖ in Paul G. Harris (ed), Global Warming and East Asia: The Domestic and International Politics of Climate Change (London: Routledge, 2003), p. 57.

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interaction of domestic politics and international negotiations emphasizes, at the national level, domestic interests pressing for policies conducive to their interests internationally.30 Global warming is inherently a global problem, and China cannot act upon preventing global warming without the necessary financial and technological assistance. The GEF and CDM will be very important for China. ―China will actively seek investments from the international community for projects which assist in the slowing of climate change.‖31Under this framework of the GEF and CDM, international aid (funds and technology transfers) could enhance China‘s capabilities against global warming. China also tries to seek international technical assistance, funds and loans in order to gain some economic benefits such as improving energy efficiency and reducing GHG emissions.32 Considering the question of the influence international aid or loans has had in helping to prevent climate change, most respondents have chosen positive answers (i.e., extremely significant fairly significant or average33).The systematic, complex and flexible climate change regime - the UNFCCC – has come about due to the climate change science and human collective action.

28

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Figure 1. The influence of international aid or loans in helping to prevent climate change: 2003 and 2007

Considering the question: what are the most important international factors motivating China to perfect its climate change coordination work, the influence of interest-based factors from global climate change action still matters from 2003 to 200734.

30

See Karen T. Litfin, Ozone Discourses: Science and Politics in Global Environmental Cooperation, (New York: Columbia University Press, 1994). 31 See China‘s State Council ed.,China’s Agenda 21-White book on China’s population, environment, and development in the 21st century (Beijing: Environmental Science Press), 1994, p.10. 32 Ibid.. 33 The meanings of different options: A. Extremely significant; B.Fairly significant; C.Average; D.Negligible; E. Don‘t know. 34 The meanings of different options: A. International norms; B. International expertise and international training; C. International environmental loans and aid; D. International negotiation requirements; E. Other.

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Figure 2: What are the most important international factors motivating China to perfect its climate change coordination work? 2003 and 2007

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Considering the question: Do you believe that it is time for China to undertake substantive obligations and opportunities at home and abroad, with regard to the climate change pact(Year of 2007)35?

From this survey results, we can conclude that China currently remains on a growthoriented, unsustainable, resource constrained economic trajectory, but it faces the critical dilemma between promoting development and struggling against environmental degradation and global warming. In this dilemma, as China gradually becoming world economic engine, it also steadily marches towards the largest polluter. When China decreases the Emission of GHG by 10-20%, the GDP of the country will decrease by 2%. When per Capital income 36 increases by 51%, the emission of GHG also will increase by 1.29%. So decreasing the emission of GHG will have a negative effect on China‘s economic development priority principle. With thus in mind, China will try to avoid sharing concrete responsibility in environmental cooperation. 35 36

The meanings of different options: A. Yes, B. Not yet , C. Not for a long time yet。 Zhang Zhongxiang, 1996, Macroeconomic Effect of Co2 Emmisssion Limits: A computer General Equilibrium Analysis, A book presented at 7th Annual Conference of tit European Association of Environment and Resource Economists, Lisbon.

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From the discussion above, interests imposed by global climate change actions are a great influence on China‘s climate change policy. However, only interests-based is not enough for explaining the development of policy coordination in China. China still put high priorities on economic growth, besides, the GEF and CDM cannot help China to resolve all the issues around the climate change because China is too large to depend only on foreign loans and grants, though it is somewhat helpful.

Knowledge-Based Explanation Climate change is a human activity that takes place in different areas (i.e. energy industry, agriculture planning, and communications) and has to be prevented by the cooperation of different bureaucracies. The issues negotiated in the Conference of Parties on the UNFCCC cover all the damages imposed by climate change (i.e., economic cost, environmental disaster, land decrease) and all the methods for its prevention (environmental trade, and the knowledge of the many different areas that are involved herein.) In this regard, knowledge-based factors push the learning from and communicating in China climate change diplomacy. Samuel S. Kim argues that Chinese foreign policy is seen as the one outcome of a continuing interplay between decision-makers‘ perceptions of interests and their perceptions of responses to international material pressures.37.

27

30

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Figure 3: Does policy coordination on climate change strengthen the information communication and 38 learning in 2003 and 2007

The knowledge-based factors from international regimes are important for policy coordination on climate change in China as follows: (1) As the UNFCCC should be regarded as a scientific problem (climate change science and energy science) solving regime, therefore 37 38

Kim, China and World, (1998), 23. The meanings of different options: A. Extremely significant; B.Fairly significant; C.Average; D.Negligible; E. Don‘t know.

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China‘s climate change diplomacy is very deeply connected with scientific and technical knowledge. (2) Interests of China toward the UNFCCC are not clearly defined because of many uncertainties concerning the climate change science and the economic costs. 39 Thus, knowledge may become a significant source of clarification of China‘s national interests on the UNFCCC. (3) Without enough knowledge integrated from different fields, China cannot identify its national interests or cope with the issues negotiated in the Conference of Parties. Considering the question if policy coordination on climate change strengthens the information communication and learning that takes place between individuals, most people concerned gave me positive answers. Another kind of knowledge based factor, namely, international normative factors, will also play an increasingly important role in explaining Chinese policy coordination behavior from the regulative and constitutive approaches. From the figure below, we can see that international norms (acquired from international negotiations). The international norms in the UNFCCC state, ―Acknowledging that change in the Earth's climate and its adverse effects are a common concern of humankind, Acknowledging that the global nature of climate change calls for the widest possible cooperation by all countries and their participation in an effective and appropriate international response, in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities and their social and economic conditions, Determined to protect the climate system for present and future generations.‖ Katzenstein argues that the concepts of international norms refer to collective expectations for the proper behavior of actors with a given identity. Norms thus either define (or constitute) identities or prescribe (or regulate) behaviors, or they do both.40 Thus, ―Every country should strengthen policy coordination and prevent global warming‖ as a norm in the UNFCCC. It has both constitutive and regulative aspects,41 and besides that, it can affect the interaction between the interests and knowledge. First, regarding the constitutive aspects, the international struggle against global warming can shape China‘s climate change diplomacy. In my fieldwork, many officials believe that China is a responsible stakeholder in the international system and has been keeping very seriously to its promises. Second, regarding the regulative aspects, China climate change diplomacy has been faced with international pressures on carbon reduction targets and timetable. Considering the question on what is the most important international factor motivating China to perfect its climate change coordination work, the influence of interest-based factors from global climate change action still matters from 2003 to 200742. China‘s position is getting crucial in the climate change debate due to its leading role in the developing world. With responsibilities, there comes the political and diplomatic power that enables China to influence international environmental agenda. As a result, China‘s 39

Ding Yihui said, ―China takes few actions which only aim to reduce the GHG emissions except some scientific research. Moreover, China makes no systematic and comprehensive research on the influences (i.e., economic cost, agriculture disaster) of climate change on China till now.‖ Interview with Ding Yihui, former President of the IPCC, China Meteorological Administration, March, 2003. 40

Katzenstein, The Culture of National Security Norms and Identity in World Politics, (1996), 12-31.

41

See Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999). 42 The meanings of different options: A. International norms; B. International expertise and international training; C. International environmental loans and aid; D. International negotiation requirements; E. Other.

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position in the environmental negotiations is likely to put its moral reputation at stake as well. Thus, China begin to put more and more emphasis on the pressures of international negotiations.

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Figure 4 : What is the most important international factor affecting coordination work in China in 2003 and 2007

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Domestic, Institution –Based Explanantaion Climate change is too complex, or demanding, for a single bureaucratic unit in China to handle and comprehend. Hence there remain disparities among the views held by different Chinese bureaucracies on reducing GHG emissions, the principles of equity and justice for such reduction, the balance between China‘s sustainable development and moral capacity building, and so on. Thus, the new policy coordination has to be founded. As Economy puts it again, ―the requirements of the regime result in the proliferation of new domestic actors or the 43 establishment of new bureaucratic linkages that influence policy outcome.‖ She further argues that ―international regimes spur the emergence of new bureaucratic arrangements to manage China‘s involvement in the regimes and encourage the introduction of new actors 44 from the scientific and expert communities into prominent policy-making positions.‖ In United Nations‘ documents, like the UNFCCC Books from 1995 to 2005, national communication and coordination institutions are key terms highlighted by the UNFCCC and 45 other environmental agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol. The UNFCCC, therefore, provides a common issue and plays an instrumental role in the development of policy coordination among Chinese agencies. According to the UNFCCC, "National coordinating mechanisms and focal points and national coordinating entities have an important role to play in ensuring coordination at the country and regional levels and may serve as the focal

43

Elizabeth Economy, ―The Impact Of International Regimes on China's Foreign Policy-Making Perspectives and Policies but Only to a Point‖, in David Lampton, ed., The Making of Chinese Foreign and security Policy in the Era of Reform 1978-2000 (Stanford, California, Stanford University 2001), p.236. 44 Economy, ―The Impact of International Regimes on China‘s Foreign Policy-Making‖, 2001, p.251. 45 The UNFCCC, ―The Marrakech Accords and Marrakech Declaration‖, p.10-14.

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point for coordinating capacity-building activities" China has built a networked and coordinative institution: China National Coordination Committee for Climate, to deal with the issues negotiated in the Conference of Parties on the UNFCCC which cover all the damages imposed by climate change and all the methods for its prevention . The UNFCCC reflects the efforts of international regimes to reach down into the state to set the domestic institutions: China National Coordination Committee for Climate. There are four stages for policy coordination in this domestic institution: (1) making independent proposals or decisions; (2) communication and consultation stage; (3) inter ministerial search for consensus process; and (4) the final decision-making. The National Coordination Committee on Climate Change is formally built to deal with any policy issues related to the global struggle against global warming. In our survey in 2003 and 2007, most informants agreed that it was necessary to build policy coordination and institutions based on such global – rather than domestic – standards.

40

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Figure 5: How necessary do you think inter-departmental coordination is

47

in 2003 and 2007

What are the implications of China's response to global warming and climate change? Clearly it has done something, and equally clear that China‘s model is near what is required to adequately address the climate crisis for the developing world. The countries of Asia Pacific can not only benefit from China's growth, but also from the consequences of China's balanced development model. Even the world's wealthiest country, the United States, has failed utterly in acting to address climate change issues. Like most countries, each has sought to make incremental changes domestically while avoiding international obligations to substantially limit GHG emissions. But China will and must do enough; instead of waiting on the rich countries of the world to take much more concerted action. China has used its dual status as a developing country (with rights to and needs for development) and its growing role as a major contributor to global environmental problems (such as GHG emissions) to acquire substantial influence in international environmental negotiations. To be sure, China has a strong possibility for leap fogging into a clean energy development path. 46

The UNFCCC, "the Marrakech Accords and Marrakech Declaration." . Accessed on November 12, 2002. pp. 10-14. 47 The meanings of different options: A. Extremely necessary; B. Necessary; C. Hardly necessary; D. Not necessary; E. Don‘t know.

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China could show true leadership on climate change in the developing world. From the political consideration, China‘s government will gain the reputation of high efficiency and adaptability in climate diplomacy, influenced by international factors from explanatory contexts of interests, knowledge and domestic institution. A concerted transition to an economy that produces fewer carbon emissions is the road that China must choose, especially with financial and technical aid from the developed world. However, such aid would have to come with clear restrictions from the developed world. As we know, China's emissions per person are still below the global average. "On average, each person in the US now emits more than five tonnes of carbon per year, while in China the figure is only one tonne per year. Since the start of the industrial revolution, the US and Europe account for more than 50 per cent of the total, accumulated global emissions over two centuries, while China accounts for 48 less than eight per cent." Thus, it is essential that climate change be fully integrated into development policy, the rich countries should help developing countries to build an equitable, sustainable, clean and low carbon growth model. Otherwise, collective action against global warming is hopeless. China should and must work together with other world in the battle against global warming, particularly EU and the US.

48

"CO2 emissions increasing faster than expected", M2 Presswire, May 22, 2007.

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Chapter 1

INTRODUCTION

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Since the early 1990s, we have witnessed growing worldwide concerns on regulating global climate change.49 Global warming has become a common aversion issue50 and affected environmental political behaviors among different countries.51 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its close interaction with the economy, society and politics has become a hot common political issue around the world since the 1992 Rio Summit. Mitigating global climate change will be achieved by substantial collaboration under the UNFCCC. As a kind of cracker-barrel regime in negotiation stage, the UNFCCC is crucial in bringing the climate change problem to the attention and action at the 52 levels of domestic and foreign policy making. The harm done by climate change also adds a potential and real environmental threat to China. Climate change has been recognized as an important source of environmental threat to China since the 1990s, and caught more and more attention from Chinese leaders. Global warming may lead to a sea level rise and some extreme weather events, which would cause 49

"Climate change" means a change of climate, which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods. Climate change is driven by an imbalance between the energy the Earth receives from the sun, largely as visible light, and the energy it radiates back to space as invisible infrared light. The huge growth of industrial activity contributes a lot to it in recent 100 years. Climate change results in some of these gases helping to regulate the amount of energy and heat that escape from the atmosphere, commonly referred to as greenhouse gases (GHG). See Houghton: Global Warming,(Oxford: Lion Publishing plc), 1994,pp. 1-10. 50 Arthur Stein: ―Cooperation and Collaboration: Regimes in an Anarchic World‖, in David A. Baldwin (ed.), Neorealism and Neoliberalism: the Contemporary Debate, (New York, Columbia University Press, 1993), pp. 41-42. 51 The literature on climate change ,mainly include: Houghton: Global Warming,(Oxford: Lion Publishing plc), 1994. Ward, Barbara and Dubos, Rene: Only one earth: The Care and Maintenance of a Small Planet, (New York: Penguin, 1972). Watson, R.T., Zinyoewera, M.C. & Moss, R.H. (Eds.):Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),Climate Change 1995 - Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996.) Houghton, J.T., Meira Filho, L.G., Callander, B.A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A. & Maskell, K. (eds.):Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996). 52 Peter M. Haas: “Epistemic Communities and International Policy Coordination‖, in International Organization, (winter, 1992). pp 1-35.

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coastal flooding and damage in China. Moreover, it leads to environmental degradation/scarcity, particularly in water resources in China.53 China has risen to become the world‘s pre-eminent economic and political force – for good and ill. While it has contributed to regional economic growth, it has simultaneously taken on the unenviable role of being the region's largest polluter. The greenhouse gas (GHG)54 emissions of carbon dioxide in China caused by fossil fuel burning are enormous. China is now the second largest source – after the United States - of pollutants that are warming the global atmosphere55 with its high economic development and low energy efficiency industrial structure. This situation has attracted growing, serious and worldwide concerns and pressures. In the last few years, in order to secure its international reputation and acquire the international environmental funds and technology transfer, China has to take some steps to respond to the international trend to protect the climate in the context of the UNFCCC, energetically.56 According to a fragmented authoritarianism model, policy making in China is disjointed, protracted, and incremental. However, China‘s policy making in the climate change area takes place at a very coordinated level. What variables can explain the development of foreign policy coordination in China best? China is a non- Annex I country, and it does not share the concrete responsibilities for reducing green house gases (GHG) in the short run. China never changed its industry and consumption structure, and related domestic laws only aiming to control its GHG emissions. In accordance, domestic variables are not enough to explain coordination phenomenon in Chinese policy. In order to find the answer to what makes the development of foreign policy coordination in China, I focused on the international factors, mainly the UNFCCC. My book tries to discuss the relation between the international climate change regime (the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)57 and a domestic issue (foreign policy coordination in China). The UNFCCC, and the actions required to meet the potential threats of climate change, now occupy a more prominent position on the political agenda of China, and China has to respond under the UNFCCC influences carefully and seriously. China has joined the UNFCCC and its COP58 negotiations about the mitigation of the climate change problems and built foreign policy coordination institutions. I find that the UNFCCC plays an important role for the development of foreign policy coordination in China. In my book, I will try to explore the three processes – interests based, knowledge based and domestic institution based – influenced by the international regimes on foreign policy coordination in China.

53

State Council, White Paper on Population, Environment, and Development in the 21st Century, April 1994, p. 14. When these greenhouse gasses (GHG) accumulate they allow light to pass through to Earth where it warms the planet and cycles back to the stratosphere to leave, where it gets trapped. Instead of escaping, it re-circulates, warming the Earth. Activities from fossil fuel burning to deforestation result in increased greenhouse gasses such as carbon dioxide and methane 55 For a recent summary of China's greenhouse pollution, see Keith Bradsher, "Air pollution rises with China's growth," International Herald Tribune, 23 October 2003, p. 1. China's per capita emissions remain well below those of the developed countries. 56 Nicholas Lenssen: "All the Coal in China," in World Watch, Vol. 6, No.2, (April-May. 1993). pp. 2-5. 57 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change with its protocol, mandate and mechanism. See www.unfccc.int 58 The Conference of Parties, Parties means the countries that joined the UNFCCC. 54

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3

In this chapter, I introduce my book from the following five aspects: the rise of research fields for climate change, background of China and climate change, research proposal, case chosen, outline of my study and methods.

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1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UNFCCC AND CHINA A generation has passed since the world's governments began to seriously consider the problems of global warming and resulting climate change.59 We know that global warming is caused by human activities - notably the burning of coal, oil and other fossil fuels - resulting in the emissions of carbon dioxide and other so-called 'greenhouse gases' (GHGs).60 Global warming in turn is causing climate change manifested by rising sea levels, droughts, floods, spread of pests, harm to natural ecosystems and species, and other usually adverse consequences. The harm done by the climate change also adds a potential threat to human beings, it is so serious in its nature and so far-reaching in influence that it has transcended national boundaries, come across oceans and expanded to the whole world.61 As these consequences have become clearer, governments have started to work unilaterally and in concert to adapt to and – much less robustly – mitigate climate change. The first decade of international cooperation on global warming resulted in the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), signed at the Rio Earth Summit. Subsequent international negotiations, notably those surrounding the 1997 Kyoto Protocol to the FCCC (which laid out very modest mandatory reductions in developed country GHG emissions) and follow-on discussions regarding implementation have been fraught with difficulties and differences among countries. China has been an important participant in these international negotiations, and the core member of the negotiation group of ―China plus Group 77.‖ Indeed, they are crucial to global efforts to address climate change, if for no other reason than their economic growth that has made it a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Furthermore, China is the largest developing countries and peoples who will be most adversely affected by climate change.62 Oran Yang puts forward that there are three stages for international regime development: the agenda formation stage, the negotiation stage, and the operation stage in international environmental regimes. International struggles against climate change and for reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) have led to the building, negotiation and implementation for the

59

Some of the following ideas were first discussed in Paul G. Harris, 'The Politics and Foreign Policy of Global Warming in East Asia,' in Paul G. Harris, ed., Global Warming and East Asia: The Domestic and International Politics of Climate Change (London: Routledge, 2003), pp. 3-18; Harris, 'Climate Change Priorities for East Asia: Socio-economic Impacts and International Justice,' in Harris, Global Warming and East Asia, pp. 19-39; and Harris 'Global Warming in Asia-Pacific: Environmental Change vs. International Justice', Asia-Pacific Review 9, 2 (November 2002): 130-149. 60 See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2001 (3 vols.) (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001). 61 See ―Climate in despair‖, in Times, (July 15th 1999), p. 25. 62 See Harris, Global Warming and East Asia.

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related international regime–UNFCCC.63 At present, the regime for reducing GHG emissions (the UNFCCC) is at the negotiation and operation stage.64 At this stage, the focus of the UNFCCC is the Conference of Parties (COP), and in the meantime, some mechanisms of the UNFCCC (i.e., CDM, JI, and IET) are implemented in most countries of the world through the Global Environmental Facility (GEF). The UNFCCC has a potential and uncertain impact on every nation‘s interests, norms and domestic politics. There are many conflicts of interests and disputes at the negotiation of the UNFCCC, which aim to shape this regime to serve the different countries or groups‘ interests.65 The UNFCCC is now at the negotiation and operation stage, and has four characteristics as follows: First, international efforts are more likely to result in effective action, but several factors hinder the effectiveness of the UNFCCC. Second, there are the multiple knowledge resources and debates on climate change. Third, the negotiation on the UNFCCC must cover several different activities, including the burning of fossil fuels--an activity central to the functioning of most societies. Fourth, the acceptability of certain proposals in the UNFCCC may differ according to national circumstances. In 1990, IPCC (the inter-government party on climate change) began the first negotiations on the UNFCCC. Chinese diplomatic agents and environmental professions joined this meeting, and Qu Geping, former Minister of Environmental Protection Authority, made an address to support global struggles against climate change. After IPCC engaged in five rounds of negotiation, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was established on May 9, 1992. In 1992, Rio Summit, Chinese former Premier Li Peng, noted that the GHG emissions were threatening the national security of the relevant countries and regions and signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Since then, the UNFCCC has been implicated in the concerns and agenda setting of Chinese national interest and foreign policy. The first session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC held in Berlin in March 28 –April 7, 1995. Such meetings are held every year to promote the UNFCCC. The conference on the UNFCCC requires every participant to deliver its detailed plan and national policy or agenda related to international struggles against climate change. Since the 1990s, China has become a major contributor to climate change with the rapid growth of its economy and energy consumption. Like other countries, China faces the crucial need to protect the national interests and promote development while joining environmental cooperation on climate change. Though China had to adapt and participate in international struggles against climate change, the process is complex and affords considerable fuel for thought. The process for China to join the UNFCCC has lived through three stages up to now. The first stage was from 1990 to 1992. The focus of this stage was to integrate China‘s principles and policy into the negotiations of the UNFCCC. The second stage was from 1992

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The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change with its protocol, mandate and mechanism such as Kyoto protocol, and Berlin Mandate. 64 Oran R. Young: Creating Regimes: Arctic Accords and International Governce, (Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press, 1998), pp. 4-5. 65 Currently, the conflicts mainly happen among these country group: 1,Umbrella Group (the U.S., Japan and Australia); 2,European Union;3, Group of 77 and China;4, The Alliance of Small Island States(AOSIS).

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Introduction

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to 1997. The great challenges to Chinese policymakers were the Kyoto Protocol 66 and trade mechanisms imposed on developing countries such as CDM (Clean Development Mechanism), JI (Joint Implementation) and IET (International Emission Trade).67 The third stage runs from 1997 until now. China ratified the Kyoto protocol and began to introduce CDM in China. China is one of the countries mentioned as being central to future international negotiations on the UNFCCC to control GHG emissions. Chinese energy demand--met largely by coal--is huge and growing; it is second only to the United States in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions; and by the year 2020, emissions are projected to exceed the total of the United States, Japan, and Canada combined.68 Chinese have participated in international efforts to mitigate climate change, and in so doing, highlights the dilemmas confronting itself as a developing nation when dealing with an issue like climate change.69 In the international negotiation of the UNFCCC, developed countries and some IGOs have tried to encourage China to assume equal responsibility for reducing the GHG emissions, as early as possible; if not, the rapid increase of GHG emissions in China will counterbalance the endeavors of international cooperation for reducing GHG. However, China still adheres to avoiding any concrete responsibility. Based on Chinese foreign practice from 1992, there are three characteristics for China‘s attitude toward the international struggles against Climate change: (1) China always insists on the principle of ―common and differential responsibility‖. (2) China chooses the strategy of joining the international regimes against Climate Change introduced by developed countries. And (3) China tries its best to avoid any concrete responsibilities or burdens, and insists on a ―no regret‖ principle, which means any responsibilities China shared in the UNFCCC should not reduce China‘s economic growth. Lieberthal and Oksenberg argue, ―The main bureaucratic elements shaping the policy process in China are the core group of 25-30 top leaders, liaison leadership groups that include research centers and institutes, State Council Commissions, and line ministries.‖70 The China National Coordination Committee for Climate is responsible for any policy issues related to global struggles against climate change (i.e., formulating policies, programs, and coordinating scientific research). The Committee, chaired by the Development Planning Commission after 1998 and China Meteorological Administration before 1998, includes 14 participating departments: Ministry of Development and Planning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Science and Technology, State Economic and Trade Commission, China Meteorological Administration, Ministry of Finance, State Environmental Protection Administration, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Communications, Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Construction, State Forestry Administration, State Oceanic Administration and Chinese Academy of Sciences.

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Eizenstat, Stuart: ― Stick with Kyoto-A Sound Start on Climate Change‖, Foreign Affairs, (May/June, 1998),pp 119-121；Flavin, Christopher: ―Responding to the Threat of Climate Change‖, in L. Stark (ed.): State World 1998: a Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress Toward a Sustainable Society, (New York: W.W. Norton Company, 1998), pp. 113-126. 67 Richard Cooper: ―Toward a Real Climate change Treaty‖, Foreign Affairs, (March/April, 1998), pp. 10-13. 68 www.ipcc.int, accessed in Aug. 2002. 69 According to my result of my questionnaires on 30 officials related to China climate change policy. 70 Kenneth Lieberthal and Michel Oksenberg, 1988, p.20.

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The National Coordination Committee for Climate is responsible for coordinating and formulating policy related to climate change. In 1990, the China National Coordination Committee held its first meeting. Since then, it has convened a conference just before China joins each international negotiation on climate change. There are two main responsibilities for this committee: to cope with the climate change issues while trying to protect national interest and sovereignty, and to do a strategy study on energy and an economic development study in respect of global climate changes. There are different working groups in the National Coordination Committee; different state bureaucracy sections are responsible for different groups. There are some ―window agencies‖ to communicate with the international factors, and coordinate different bureaucracies on special policies. For example, the Ministry of Finance communicates with the GEF (financial mechanism of the UNFCCC), and coordinate different bureaucracies in international financial support and technology transfer.

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1.2 RESEARCH PROPOSAL ON THE UNFCCC AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOREIGN POLICY COORDINATION IN CHINA For those concerned about the global environment, arguably the most important Asian Pacific country is China.71 China's population has reached about 1.3 billion people, and its economy is one of the world's largest and fastest growing. Consequently, China is experiencing widespread and often acute environmental problems with severe local, national, and regional consequences.72 It already produces vast amounts of GHGs, especially carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning. China is also a powerful member of the developing world. Its political and diplomatic powers mean it can influence international environmental negotiations. In other words, China is central to regional and global environmental protection efforts. Understanding its responses to global warming and climate change is important for scholars, practitioners, and laypersons interested in China studies. More broadly, understanding China's response to global warming can help illuminate the variables that shape policy making in China. Scholars take China‘s bureaucratic politics in China as disjointed, protracted, and incremental. China's policymaking in climate change, however, takes place at a deep coordinated level. What is the reason for this? This book attempts to provide an explanation to this question by focusing on international environmental regimes theory and linking regime theory with the behavior of the bureaucracy in China. Until now there have been only a few scholars who looked at the distinctive relations between these and even fewer people working

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Some of these ideas and discussion of other countries can be found in Paul G. Harris, 'Environmental Politics and Foreign Policy in East Asia: A Survey of China and Japan,' in Paul G. Harris, ed., Confronting Environmental Change in East and Southeast Asia (London: Earthscan/Tokyo: United Nations University Press, forthcoming). 72 See Vaclav Smil, China's Environmental Crisis (Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe, 1993); Japan Environmental Council, The State of the Environment in Asia 1999/2000 (Tokyo: Springer-Verlag, 2000), pp98-100; World Bank, 'The World Bank and climate change: East Asia,' World Bank Group, 1997, http://www.worldbank. org/html/extdr/climchng/eapclim.htm.

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Introduction

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on the benefits of the UNFCCC.73 Therefore, my book is an important and original study to help us better understand the policy-making process in China and other developing countries. After a theoretical and empirical analysis of the reasons that regimes are particularly described as independent variables for foreign policy coordination in China, and the UNFCCC, COP and GEF as my intervening variables, I discuss the special features of foreign policy coordination in China that are developed by the UNFCCC. My book seeks to explore this inter-disciplinary field neglected by most of the scholars in political science studies. It integrates knowledge of international relations, public administration, and Chinese politics as well as provides an in-depth view on foreign policy coordination on climate change in China for decision-makers and others interested in climate change and international policy. This book proves that with the appearance of international regimes on climate change, the formulation of policies in China takes place at more "coordinated" levels, and the UNFCCC positively influences the development of China‘s foreign policy coordination. This book is empirically documented and its analysis is offered through a case study of factors influencing China‘s foreign policy coordination. The book focuses on what role the UNFCCC plays in the coordination of the policy toward climate change in China. In this paper, I explore international regimes as influences on foreign policy coordination in China mostly from fieldwork. By analyzing and evaluating the in-depth interviews with core participants in China‘s foreign policy coordination toward climate change, the dissertation demonstrates the argument that international regimes have contributed to the development of foreign policy coordination in China, taking the influence of the climate change regime as a departure. After I make data analyses including classification, organization, integrating the categories, illustrations, and a synbook of the data to give direct response to the research purpose, then, I formulate the conceptual framework in the book. The study mainly focused on assessing the interaction between the UNFCCC and foreign policy coordination in China and aims at four aspects: (1) to evaluate existing paradigms in respect of coordination in Chinese policy. (2) to analyze independent variables (the UNFCCC), intervening variables the UNFCCC and related protocol, communications from Parties in the UNFCCC and issues resolving procedures through the Conference of the Parties (COP),74 and Global Environmental Facility for climate change (GEF). And the dependent variables (foreign policy coordination in China). (3) To test the hypobook that it is international regimes not other independent variables that contribute most to coordination in Chinese policy.75 (4) To develop an explanatory framework to analyze how international regimes have contributed to coordination in Chinese policy.

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Until now, mainly works, which touch on international regimes and Chinese politics, include Samuel Kim, China and World, (Boulder: Westview Press, 1989, 1992, 1998). Oksenberg and Economy: China joins the world, (New York: The Foreign Relations Council, 1997). Alistair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross: Engaging China: the management of an emerging power, (London; New York: Routledge, 1999). 74 Comprise all countries that have ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. COP is responsible for implementing the objectives of the Convention and has been meeting regularly since 1995. 75 Before China fully shares the concrete responsibilities for reducing green house gases (GHG) in the UNFCCC, China domestic economy, industry and consumption structure, and related domestic laws will undertaken little effects related to climate change. Thus, domestic variables either have little effect on coordination in Chinese policy.

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Figure 1.1. Basic analytical context in this book.

Based on my empirical study, the UNFCCC is at the negotiation and operation stage in which China shares few concrete responsibilities and there was little foreign policy coordination in China before the formulation of international regimes related to this field, the main theoretical argument in this study is: The UNFCCC exerts important influences in the development of foreign policy coordination in China from the explanation contexts of interests based, domestic institution based and knowledge based. In my book, impacts imposed by the UNFCCC are the independent variable, and the development of foreign policy coordination in China is the dependent variable.

1.3 RESEARCH CASE My study is directed towards explaining the empirical phenomenon of the UNFCCC‘s influences on China‗s foreign policy coordination. The challenge of such a study is to select independent variables to answer the empirical questions, and to provide a thorough, theoretically based argument for the selection of these variables. In my book, theoretical literatures and empirical materials have been utilized carefully in terms of the UNFCCC to underpin the choice of explanatory variables, and the formulation of hypotheses. The research strategy employed in this study is a single case study of the UNFCCC‘s influences on foreign policy coordination in China. In this section, it explained why I choose this research design. Potential problems related to using this methodological approach are discussed, and possible solutions to these problems suggested. The case study is an empirical enquiry that investigates a contemporary phenomenon within its real-life context, especially when the boundaries between phenomenon and context are not evident. Moreover, the case

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Introduction

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study research strategy is advantageous when a `how' or `why' question is asked about a contemporary set of events over which the investigator has little or no control.76 In my case ―foreign policy coordination in China toward the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)‖, I use three indicators: ―bargaining‖, ―consensus (Tong Yi Kou Jing)‖ and ―making of final decision in coordination level‖ to evaluate the impacts of international regimes on foreign policy coordination in China. I discuss the norms and rules in the UNFCCC, related protocol, national communications, issue resolving procedures through Conference of the Parties (COP), and Global Environmental Facility leads to the increase of ―bargaining‖, ―consensus (Tong Yi Kou Jing)‖ and ―making of final decision at the coordination level‖. This case makes it clear that international regimes contribute to the development of foreign policy coordination in China. The case study research strategy is therefore ideal to understanding the topic of international regimes and the development of foreign policy coordination in China. Namely how GEF, COP and terms in the UNFCCC influence foreign policy coordination on climate change in China. This topic is both contemporary, explanatory (a `how' question is asked), and the examined phenomenon (foreign policy coordination on climate change in China). The strength of the case study is that it opens the possibility of using varied sources. Furthermore, case studies may be applied in a very flexible way; they may be explanatory (as is the case in this report), descriptive, illustrating or exploratory. There are personal, methodology and theoretical reasons for me to choose this case on ―the UNFCCC and foreign policy coordination in China‖ in my research. Concerning the personal experience consideration, I am a native Chinese speaker and my ability to read Chinese-language sources and conduct interviews in Chinese pose a good opportunity for the writing of this report. Most important of all, I had some working experience in the climate change policy making area when I worked at the Administrative Center for China‘s Agenda 21. I joined two MSTC (Ministry of Science and Technology) projects: Response to Global Warming, and Comparative Study on International Sustainable Development Strategies. Owing to the two projects, I gained not only environmental knowledge but also my research interests – climate change regime study – and the latter is very valuable for my future research. Besides that, I have built a good relationship with many environmental officials and experts. All the personal experiences above have helped make me to do deep and comprehensive research in this area. As regards the methodology, first, the single case research strategy renders possible a thorough examination of causal mechanisms through the examination of a broad range of data and information sources. It also eases the process of obtaining clear operational measures of data. Second, the case study makes a thorough examination of causal mechanisms that are possible, and makes it easier to obtain clear operational measures of data. Third, the case study is well suited to examine the interrelated and specific contextual relations between the international regimes and the development of foreign policy coordination in China. I made questionnaires and in-depth interviews from more than 16 bureaucracies and institutions. This case study makes my book convincing. More than 60 key officials and experts involved in the Chinese National Coordination Committee for Climate or related institutions were 76

Robert Yin: Case Study Research – design and Methods, Applied Social Research methods Serious, VOL. 5, (London: Saga Publications, 1994), pp. 26-34.

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interviewed or asked to finish the questionnaires during the fieldwork. In this way, an indepth overview has been obtained of the different opinions concerning international regimes‘ factors influencing climate foreign policy coordination in China. Data collection was done through preparatory interviews, and fieldwork (including interviews, direct observation, documents and examination of written materials). With reference to the theoretical considerations, the UNFCCC case also was chosen mainly because it was extreme, in the sense that three reasons suggested it would explain the influence of the international regimes on foreign policy coordination in China successfully. First, climate change is a serious threat to humanity and climate change can lead to environmental degradation/scarcity,77 and it can deepen social divisions, lead to international and domestic violent conflicts.78 The UNFCCC is the only available solution to it. Second, since the 1990s, China has become a major contributor to climate change with the rapid growth of its economy and energy consumption, and its GHG emissions ranked second 79 in the World. Like other countries, China faces the crucial need to protect the national interests and promote development while participating in environmental cooperation on climate change. Though the process is complex and saddled with controversy, China has had to adapt and participate in the international struggles against climate change. At the same time, China tries to balance the different considerations of national interests and reduce the risks imposed by the UNFCCC.80 Third, if China begins to share concrete responsibilities in the UNFCCC under the ―no regret principle‖ slowly, there are some impacts on many aspects of China‘s economy, energy and agriculture. The UNFCCC also engages different issue areas in Chinese policy, including for example environmental protection, economic development, modernization, energy production, and agriculture. Foreign policy coordination is necessary for the process that China joins the UNFCCC.

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1.4 HYPOBOOK AND RESEARCH METHODS 1.4.1 Hypobook Based on the insights from the literature on foreign policy coordination in China, and particularly the fragmented authoritarianism approach, the following empirical propositions will be investigated in the empirical analysis to follow: Hypobook 1: Impacts imposed by international regimes contribute to the development of foreign policy coordination in China.

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Thomas F. Homer-Dixon: ―On the Threshold- Environmental Changes as Causes of Acute Conflict‖, International Security, (Fall 1991), pp. 87-99. 78 L. Stark (ed.): State World 1998: a Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress Toward a Sustainable Society, (New York: W.W. Norton Company, 1998). 79 L. Stark (ed.): State World 2000: a Worldwatch Institute Report on Progress Toward a Sustainable Society,(New York: W.W. Norton Company, 2000). 80 Wu, C.et al Eds. China: Issues and Options in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Control Alternative Energy Supply Options to Substitute for Carbon Intensive Fuels, World Bank, 1994.

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Hypobook 2: There is little foreign policy coordination in China related to the field of climate change before the formulation of international regimes related to this field. Hypobook 3: the impact imposed by international regimes is the important variable for development of foreign policy coordination in China.

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1.4.2 Research Methods I plan to do this research through an empirical approach. Since most of necessary data – except the historical analysis - can‘t be obtained from existing literature. I must go into the social world and observe how foreign policy coordination on climate change in China is organized and how it operates. Qualitative methods are the main research methods in this research work. I combine the documentary research, in-depth interviews, field research, and individual experience of the researcher to pursue the research work. The research work is a procession progression of interaction between them. The research design is descriptive. Through different research methods below (e.g., document analysis and in-depth interviews), the hypobook of this book are validated. After reviewing theoretical materials on international regimes and China‘s foreign policy coordination, I combine theories based on different approaches to the understanding of international regimes. I put forward my dependent and independent variables. Then, three intervening variables from international regimes (independent variables) believed to influence foreign policy coordination (dependent variables) in China are found: 1. interests distribution, 2. knowledge and 3. new domestic institutions. Based on the theoretical materials on dependent and independent variables, hypotheses about international regimes influencing the foreign policy coordination in China are advanced. The in-depth interviews focus on diplomatic agents, professionals and decision-makers who join climate change policy making. It mainly includes a preparatory interview phase and an interview phase. In the preparatory phase of this interview, I had an extensive dialogue with diplomatic agents, professionals and decision-makers who do some work for climate change foreign policy coordination. This made it possible to map and contact most interviewees before going to China, which was necessary in order to increase the output of the fieldwork in Mainland China. These unstructured and therefore exploratory interviews were also instrumental in carving out the analytical framework of the study, the basic elements of which were developed largely in parallel with these interviews. The interviews were, therefore, also very important in narrowing the scope of the study. Preparatory interviews were conducted among researchers, experts and officials in institutions related to climate change. I also visited some professors in Chinese politics. They were interviewed about their understanding of environmental science, international regime theory and Chinese policymaking. The interviewed researchers are dominant in the field, and therefore able to supplement my theoretical understanding gained from theoretical materials and older written sources. These interviews were an important part of the preparations for the interviews directly relevant to the case study. As I interviewed the participants and read the source documents from the international negotiating process, however, I began to suspect that more complicated dynamics than

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interest-based and knowledge-based factors, such as suggested by Elizabeth Economy were involved. The disconfirmation of my initial hypobook required some adjustment on my part, but in the end, it gave me a far more theoretically interesting research agenda. I found factors important to the analysis of foreign policy coordination in China such as: norms and rules in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the UNFCCC) and related protocol, Communications from Parties in the UNFCCC , issues resolving procedures through the Conference of the Parties (COP),81 and Global Environmental Facility for climate change (GEF). Furthermore, according to my in-depth interview, there is no real consensus (based on the common knowledge of national interests and strategy) among different bureaucracies in climate change policy. I would rather use the term consensus (Tong Yi Kou Jing) as an indicator for foreign policy coordination in my book. The case study relies heavily on more than questionnaires and in depth interviews from 40 officials and experts from different bureaucracies and institutions. The interviews were focused, but still open-ended. The respondents were asked a set of similar questions (without fixed answering alternatives), based on my questionnaires. After he or she finished the questionnaires, specific questions were asked, varying according to their relation to foreign policy coordination of climate charge and the UNFCCC when they were interviewed. Some of the interviewees have been interviewed several times, and therefore may be described as informants. For semi-structured interviews, as those conducted in this study, the interview guide should contain the coarse features of topics to be covered, as well as suggestions for questions. Obviously, respondents interviewed late in the fieldwork were naturally asked questions based on the results from earlier interviews. The respondents came from more than 20 bureaucracies and institutions, and include: Ministry of Development and Planning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Science and Technology, State Economic and Trade Commission, China Meteorological Administration, Ministry of Finance, State Environmental Protection Administration, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Communications, Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Construction, State Forestry Administration, State Oceanic Administration, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Social Science, Tsinghua University, Peking University, Remin University, Chinese Energy Institute, and Chinese Agriculture University. These questionnaires are embedded in my book and document quantitative independent variables (international regimes) and dependent variables employed in the book. I use three indicators: ―bargaining‖, ―consensus (Tong Yi Kou Jing)‖ and ―making of final decision‖ to evaluate dependent variables (the foreign policy coordination) in China. International regimes (independent variables) are examined according to interest based, knowledge based and domestic institutions. This is indicated in practice by norms and rules in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the UNFCCC) and related protocol, communications from Parties in the UNFCCC, and issues resolving procedures through the Conference of the Parties (COP), and Global Environmental Facility (Financial Mechanism) for climate change (GEF). The material in chapters 4-6 contains the interviewing content of international regimes and foreign policy coordination in China. Because of the contemporary nature of the case, 81

Comprise all countries that have ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. COP is responsible for implementing the objectives of the Convention and has been meeting regularly since 1995.

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many of the actual participants were available for personal interviews, allowing me to ask specific questions that I might not have been able to answer through archival research alone. These interviews were crucial in determining the beliefs and discursive orientations of the participants, information that is not readily accessible through publications and documents. My depth interviews also document the correlation between independent variables (international regimes) and dependent variables employed in the book based on the indicators specified in the analytical framework, and clarify the relationship between the international regimes‘ influences and foreign policy coordination in China furthermore. Although field study will play a major role in the research work, we can‘t underestimate the importance of documentary study. As Whitehead has said, everything of importance has been said before by somebody who didn‘t discover it,82 the purpose of applying a documentary research method is to obtain new data and new viewpoints by gathering, collating, comparing and synthesizing the relevant data. My document analysis focus on the UN documents related to the UNFCCC,83 the research reports and working papers by NGOs and INGOs and Chinese governments‘ environmental foreign policy documents and reports related to ―The State-Group National Coordination Committee for Climate.‖ The written material has mainly consisted of material from Chinese sources. This includes research publications on climate change; general information material; newsletters; newspapers; journals; and material published on web sites. It also includes related books, doctoral dissertations, master's theses and articles. Particularly, there are many useful websites for my document analysis, mainly including: OECD http://www1.oecd.org/env/cc/index.htm United Nations Framework Convention on Climate http://www.unfccc.de/index.html Center for International Climate and Environmental Research http://www.cicero.uio.no/index_e.asp International Institute for sustainable Development (IISD) http://www.iisd.ca Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research http://www.pik-potsdam.de World Climate Research Programme http://www.wmo.ch/web/wcrp/wcrp-home.html World Resources Institute http://www.wri.org/climate/ I introduce three content-analytic indicators: 1) homogeneity/heterogeneity of professionals and decision-makers preference/knowledge/interests expressed when they get involved in policy; 2) homogeneity/heterogeneity of different sections‘ interests expressed

82 83

Sayer, Andrew: Method in Social Science: a Realist Approach, (New York, London: Routledge Press, 1992)p.29. It mainly include: 1) the United Nations Conference Reports on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992,2) UNFCCC, 1992-2000.United Nations: Report of the Conference of the Parties on its First-ninth Session.

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when they get involved in policy; 3) the frequency of coordination among different sections involved in Climate change before and after the founding of the UNFCCC .

1.4.3 The Research Stages

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My book work developed in three stages, as follows: In the first stage, after the related literature review on international regimes and foreign policy coordination in China, I conclude that the impacts imposed by international regimes may include three aspects. First, knowledge-based impacts, such as learning or adopting new ideas norms and culture; Second, politics-based impacts from realism and liberalism (i.e., agenda setting, top leaders, new domestic institution, paramount international structure and environment); Third, interests-based impacts from liberalism (i.e., distribution of international financial funds). In the second stage, after I finish my preparatory interview and questionnaires. I try to demonstrate three points in order to build a bridge between international regimes and coordination in Chinese policymaking: 1. interests imposed by international regimes can facilitate the coordination in Chinese policymaking. There are two kinds of these interests: the first includes international funds, and international environmental aid projects, both of which are made under the context of GEF. The second includes the knowledge of new interests after joining the international regimes. 2. knowledge imposed by international regimes can be positive variables in the development of policymaking coordination of China. 3. domestic institutions imposed by international regimes can facilitate the coordination in Chinese policymaking, norms and rules in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the UNFCCC) and related protocol, Communication from Parties in the UNFCCC, issues resolving procedures through Conference of the Parties (COP), and Global Environmental Facility for climate change (GEF). In the third stage, after in-depth interviews, I found that communications from parties in the UNFCCC, and issues resolving procedures through Conference of the Parties (COP) play the most important role in shaping climate foreign policy coordination in China. The Global Environmental Facility for climate change (GEF), norms and rules in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the UNFCCC) and related protocol do not play the same role as those issues negotiated in the COP. Moreover, domestic variables are inexplicable for the development of foreign policy coordination in China climate change without considering the international incentives.

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Chapter 2

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THEORETICAL BACKGROUND FOR THE ENVIRONMENTAL REGIMES My research emphasizes and demonstrates the influence of the UNFCCC on the development of foreign policy coordination. Robert Keohane argues, ―The behavior of states, as well as of other actors, is strongly affected by the constraints and incentives provided by the international environment.‖84 The theoretical and empirical analysis on the related activities, institutions, bureaucracies, and experts can explain how the UNFCCC affects foreign policy coordination in China. The research is mainly focused of three aspects separately: if consensus (Tong Yi Kou Jing)85, bargaining and the making of final decisions are affected by the impacts imposed by the UNFCCC on the bases of interests, knowledge and domestic institution. This chapter suggests an analytic framework within which to understand the influence of international regimes on foreign policy coordination in China. Key concepts are the concept of international regimes and foreign policy coordination. Theoretical arguments forming the basis of the hypotheses are presented. The arguments are multidisciplinary in the sense that they are derived from a broad range of theories on international regimes and policy making in China. This is based on the belief that assumptions about international regimes influencing China‘s foreign policy coordination must be based on theories addressing the interests‘ distribution, knowledge and new domestic institutions of international regimes of my empirical studies of this system.

2.1 KEY CONCEPTS IN MY BOOK International regimes and foreign policy coordination are two key concepts in my research. By review of the related literature concerning these two concepts, I put forward my conceptual context to analyze international regimes and foreign policy coordination, and then 84

85

Robert Keohane: After Hegemony: cooperation and discord in the world political Economy, (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1984). pp 26-32. In my study on policy coordination on climate change inChina, consensus only means ―Tong Yi Kou Jing‖, which means ―no voice‖ or ―the same voice‖ toward international climate regimes.

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I try to find some intervening variables to explain the relation between international regimes and foreign policy coordination.

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2.1.1 International Regimes Many global issues, such as global financial crises, the risk of nuclear proliferation, the threat of terrorism, environmental degradation, the global transmission of virulent diseases, income disparities within an increasingly interwoven global economy and so forth, have become more and more important for all people. In addition, the structural readjustments of big power relations and the process of multi-polarization have picked up speed, and the trend of independence of human beings in all aspects has been strengthened. All of these result in the speedy emergence and intensification of dilemmas of common interest or aversion. In order to deal with them, international regimes arise.86 ―International regimes are defined as principles, norms, rules, and policy making procedures around which actor expectations converge in a given issue-area.‖ ―Principles are beliefs of fact, causation, and rectitude. Norms are standards of behavior defined in terms of rights and obligations. Rules are specific prescriptions or proscriptions for action. Policy making procedures are prevailing practices for making and implementing collective choice.‖87 The consensus definition of regimes is based on observable behavioral characteristics, not on what a regime does; it contains no information about where they come from or why they matter. International regimes comprise both a substantive (principles, norms, rules) and a procedural (policy making procedures) component. International regimes have five features: firstly, it is an attitudinal phenomenon; secondly, it includes tenets concerning appropriate procedures for making decision; thirdly, the description of it must include a characterization of the major principles; fourthly, It has a set of elites who are the practical actors within it; fifthly, it exists in every substantive issuearea in international relations where there is discernibly patterned behavior.88 Regime theory is often equated with its rationalist or utilitarian proponents, notably Keohane and his "Neoliberalism" followers, for whom regimes are a form of decentralized cooperation under anarchy 89, or quickly dismissed on the basis of Susan Strange‘s critique of the concept as a fuzzy fad.90 Keohane and Ruggie argue that international regimes can facilitate human cooperation through seven means as follows: First, regimes can lengthen the shadow of the future. Second, regimes can alter the cardinal payoffs of a game to make conflict more or less likely. Third, regimes institutionalize rules and norms in order to 86

Arthur Stein,― Cooperation and Collaboration: Regimes in an Anarchic World‖, in David A. Baldwin (ed.), Neorealism and Neoliberalism: the Contemporary Debate, (New York: Columbia University Press, 1993), pp. 37-41. 86 Stephen D. Krasner: ―Structural Causes and Regime consequences: Régime as Intervening variables‖, in Stephen D. Krasner (ed.), ―International Régime‖, (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1983), p. 1. 87 Ibid. pp.1-2. 88 Stephen D. Krasner, 1983, pp. 61-63. 89 Robert O. Keohane: After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy, (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1984). 90 Strange, Susan: 'Cave! hic dragons: a critique of regime analysis,' in Stephen D. Krasner(ed.): International Regimes, (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1983), pp. 320-322.

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increase the probability of cooperation. Fourth, regimes facilitate cooperation by providing information to members. Fifth, regimes increase the probability of cooperation by reducing transaction costs. Sixth, regimes can facilitate cooperation by linking issues. Seventh, regimes increase the likelihood of cooperation by redirecting domestic hostility.91 In respect of the interaction between the state and regimes from the perspective of the constructivism paradigm, state and international regimes can be shaped and strengthened by each other. Stein, Geoffrey Garrett and Barry R. Weingast argue that changes in the nature of human understanding, ideas, beliefs and knowledge about how the world works can transform the prospects for international cooperation and regime formation.92 Martha Fennimore argues that state interest can be shaped by the international regimes, in which they are embedded.93 According to Wendt, constructivism focuses on the inter-subjective meaning structures that bind actors together. They argue that regimes encourage a convergence in preferences and a sense of shared identity. Shared identities increase the likelihood of regime formation, facilitate regime creation and increase the probability of cooperation.94 Indeed all regime theories are sub-sets of bigger theories about world politics or international relations, about politics in general, and about social life–the debate between rationalists (neo-realism and neo-liberalism) and constructivists, or between theories of politics with links to economics or sociology, has deep roots. Regime theories embody ontological and epistemological assumptions about: the nature of the world beyond the state; the appropriate explanation of public policy change; the basis for why people do anything; and finally, by how we evaluate empirical claims.95

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2.1.2 Foreign Policy Coordination Policymaking can be viewed as a complicated process by which these actors work with and against each other to evolve and carry out proposed courses of action, and which results in choice among alternative courses of action. Problem solving is that thinking which results in the solution of problems.96 According to John P. Burns, coordination may be conceived of

91

There are several neo-liberals raising these augments: David A. Baldwin (ed.), Neorealism and Neoliberalism: the Contemporary Debate, (New York: Columbia University Press, 1993),Robert O. Keohane: After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Economy, (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press,1984) and Stephen D. Krasner (ed.), ―International Régime‖, (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1983). 92 Arthur Stein, ―Cooperation and Collaboration: Regimes in an Anarchic World‖, in David A. Baldwin (ed.), Neorealism and Neoliberalism: the Contemporary Debate,(New York: Columbia University Press, 1993), pp 4349. Geoffrey Garrett and Barry R. Weingast: ―Ideas, Interests, and Institutions: Constructing the European Community‘s Internal Market‖, in Judith Goldstein and Robert O. Keohane (ed.), Ideas and Foreign Policy, (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1993),pp. 173-206. 93 Martha Fennimore: National Interests in International security, (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1996), pp. 145. 94 The important work by Alexander Wendt include: Social Theory of International Politics, (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1996). ―Anarchy is What States Make of It: The Social Construction of Power Politics‖, in: International Organization, 46.2, pp. 391-425. ―Collective Identity Formation and the international State‖, American Political Science Review, 88.2, pp. 384-396. 95 Hasenclever, Andreas, Peter Mayer and Volker Rittberger (ed.): Theories of International Regimes, (Cambridge, UK:: Cambridge University Press, 1997). 96 Jam I. Bacchus: Foreign Policy and the Bureaucratic Process, (Princeton, NJ.: Princeton University, 1974), pp. 10-39.

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in minimalist terms to involve no more than ―avoiding direct conflicts among programs‖. Foreign policy coordination means the process by which two or more policies or programs are matched or harmonized to achieve shared goals and objects.97 From Nina P Halpern‘s study on foreign policy coordination in China,98 there are two basic meanings for foreign policy coordination: 1. coordination of policymaking involving different bureaucracies; 2. integrating different policy into one consensus. The existing bargaining, the increasing seeking of consensus, the model of final policy making, and the process of different policy integrating can explain the development of foreign policy coordination involving different bureaucracies. According to the documents from the OECD,99 the main content of foreign policy coordination includes: (1) Independent decision-making by ministries. Each ministry retains autonomy within its own policy domain; (2) Communication to other ministries (information exchange). Ministries keep each other up to date about what issues are airings and how they propose to act in their own areas. Reliable and accepted channels of regular communication must exist (3) Consultation with other ministries (A two-way process). As well as informing other ministries of what they are doing, individual ministries consult other ministries in the process of formulating their own policies, or position (4) avoiding divergence among ministries. Ensuring that ministries do not take divergent negotiating positions and that government speaks with one voice. (5) Interministerial search for agreement (seeking consensus). Beyond negative co-ordination to hide differences, ministries work together, through, for example, joint committees and project teams, because they recognize their interdependence and their mutual interest in resolving policy differences (6) Arbitration of inter-organizational difference. If inter-organizational difference of view cannot be resolved by the horizontal coordination processes defined in 2 to 5, Central machinery for arbitration is needed. From this concept, we can find that there are 6 levels for foreign policy coordination. 1 2 3 4 5 6

Independent decision making by ministries Communication to other ministries Consultation with other ministries Avoiding divergence among ministries Interministerial search for agreement Arbitration of inter-organizational difference

Figure 2.1 The Constituents of Foreign Policy Coordination. 97

98

99

Burns, John P.: Horizontal Government: policy coordination in China, paper prepared for the International Conference on Governance in Asia: Culture, Ethics, Institutional reform and Policy change, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, and December 2002. Nina P Halpern‘s definition of policy coordination in China is as follows ―Coordination involves all (1) the management of policy decision process so that tradeoffs among policy interests and goals are recognized, analyzed, and presented to top leadership to make decisions; and (2) the oversight of official actions, especially those that follow major high-level decisions, must reflect the balance among policy goals, that the top leadership and his responsible officials have decided upon. Nina P Halpern: ―Information Flows and Policy Coordination in the Chinese Bureaucracy‖, in Kenneth G. Lieberthal and David Lampton (ed.): Bureaucracy, politics, and decision making in Post-Mao China, (Berkeley: University of California Press,1992.) This document was prepared by Sally Washington of the OECD Public Management Service. This documents represents work conducted in the Public Management Service in 1995 under the theme by the OECD:― The Impacts of Globalizations on the Work of Government‖. It forms part of ongoing work examining policy-making systems and issues affecting governance. I get its hardcopy ―OECD Documents: Policy Coordination‖ from China‘s Administration center for Agenda 21.

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Based on the concept of foreign policy coordination, I introduce a concept of Chinese foreign policy coordination in my book: When Chinese government express consensus (Tong Yi Kou Jing) toward some international regimes, obey the norms of international regimes, and acquire interests according to procedures of international regimes, different bureaucratic sections try to achieve policy making and policy implementation through communication, consultation, and bargaining. There are three basic constituents of foreign policy coordination in China as follow: consensus (Tong Yi Kou Jing) building, bargaining and model of final policy making. In my research case on climate change policy, the final policymaking mostly occurs at the coordination level. Therefore, the increasing seeking of consensus ( Tong Yi Kou Jing), the development of bargaining and the model of final policy making in coordination level are the indispensable explanatory variables of the foreign policy coordination of China, and only one or two indictors cannot explain Chinese policymaking separately. Without ―bargaining‖, there not be ―coordination‖, but ― harmony‖; without ― consensus ( Tong Yi Kou Jing)‖, there be a lack of incentives for coordination; if the model of ―final decision making‖ is not through ―coordination ‖ but through the ―top leader‘s intervention‖ or ―hierarchy‖, the significance of coordination diminish. We can extend our analysis by the figure below.

Figure 2.2. The process of foreign policy coordination in China.

In order to demonstrate the correlation between the two key concepts, I introduce three intervening variables to explain the international régime‘s contribution to the development of foreign policy coordination in China: 1. interest‘s distribution, 2. knowledge and 3. new domestic institutions arrangement based on the requirements of international regimes. These indicators are intervening variables, which explain the relation between international regimes and foreign policy coordination in China. These three indicators can be explained in empirical analysis by: norms and rules in the UNFCCC and related protocol (Kyoto protocol), Communications from Parties in the UNFCCC, Communications from Parties in the

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UNFCCC, issues resolving procedures through Conference of the Parties 100(COP 2- 8),101 and Global Environmental Facility (Financial Mechanism) for climate change (GEF)102. I discuss these three intervening variables in chapters 4, 5 and 6 respectively.

2.2 REVIEW ON RELATED LITERATURE My review of related literature serves three goals: first, it concludes my theoretical approach as ―second images reversed;‖103 second, I discuss four explanatory contexts of international regimes; and third, I picture the relationship between China and international regimes. Therefore, I have to focus my literature review on three issue areas: first, theoretical approaches that treat international regimes as independent variables to explain policymaking; second, the general discussion on the influences that the international regimes impose on Chinese policymaking, and the foreign policy coordination in China.

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2.2.1 Theoretical Approach There are domestic and systemic level constraints for policy making. Domestic approaches focus on domestic independent variables to explain policymaking.104 Systemic approaches offer international factors as explanatory variables105 to decide policymaking.106 It means external systemic factors become the causes instead of the consequences of policymaking. For a realist, the state‘s policy making is constrained by the distribution of power (structure). For liberals, world economic activity, including international norms and institutions, constrain a country‘s policymaking and are determinants of state behavior. Keohane, Nye and Ruggie separately touch upon the policy-making formulation from international ―transnational contact‖107 and ―reproductive capacities.‖108 They also put 100

"Conference of the Parties" means the Conference of the Parties to the Convention. "Convention" means the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted in New York on 9 May 1992. 101 According to www.unfccc.int , it comprises all countries that have ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. COP is responsible for implementing the objectives of the Convention and has been meeting regularly since 1995. 102 According to the UNFCCC (1992, Rio): a financial institution was built to help developing countries to reduce GHG emissions and improve their sustainable development capacity; The GEF is this financial support institution. 103 Peter Gourevitch: ―The second images reversed: the international sources of domestic politics‖, International Organization, (autumn 1978), pp. 881-992. 104 Helen Milner: Interests, Institutions, and Information, Domestic Politics and International relations, (Princeton, NJ.: Princeton University, 1997). 105 Jeffery Frieden and Ronald Rogowski, ―The Impact of the International Economy on National Policies: An Analytical Overview,‖ in Keohane and Milner eds., Internationalization and Domestic Politics, (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996). Peter Gourevitch: "The Second Image Reversed: The International Sources of Domestic Politics‖, in International Organization, Volume 32, 1978, pp. 881-912. 106 Robert Keohane and Helen Milner: Internationalization and Domestic Politics, (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996). 107 Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye: Power and Interdependence, (New York: Harper Collins, 1989), pp. 3435.

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emphasis on the roles of secretariats of international organizations to trans-governmental relations and argue that international organizations provide the arena for sub-units of governments to turn potential or tacit coalitions into explicit coalitions characterized by direct communication among the partners. Therefore, international secretariats can also be viewed both as catalysts and as potential members of coalitions.109 Frieden and Rogowski seek to explain the influence of globalization: 1.The policy preferences of relevant socioeconomic and political agents within countries toward national policies and national policy-making institutions; 2. Given these preferences, the adoption or evolution of national policies and national policy-making institutions‖; 3. Given preferences, policies, and institutions, the relationship between a given set of institutions and a given set of policies.110 In the study of Chinese foreign policymaking, we can find different domestic variables and international variables to explain Chinese policymaking. Referring to domestic variables, Kenneth Lieberthal argues that ―the level of economic development, the success of economic programs, the emergence of new leaders, and the attitudes of the populace toward the outside word combine with international circumstance to create a nation‘s foreign policy.111 Thomas Robinson put forward three domestic variables: the primacy of politics, the weight of the past, and the importance of ideology.112 There are also some other explanations like ideology and personality explained by Michael H. Hunt113, professionalization, corporate pluralization, decentralization are emphasized by David M. Lampton114 , domestic meetings, documents , and institutions by Lu Ning.115 There are two main domestic explanatory approaches to explain foreign policy coordination in China: One is based on the Chinese policymaking structure," the structure of Chinese policymaking is disjointed or fragmented‖116, or ―Toiao-tiao vs. Kuai-kuai‖117; another is based on the Chinese ideology and political culture, such as ―Leninist‖, ―party leadership system‖.118

108

Ruggie: ―Multilateralism: the anatomy of an institution‖, international organization 46(3): pp561-598 Robert O. Keohane and Joseph S. Nye, Jr. (eds.): Transnational Relations and World Politics, (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press) , 1972.pp.51-52. 110 Jeffery Frieden and Ronald Rogowski, ―The Impact of the International Economy on National Policies: An Analytical Overview,‖ in Keohane and Milner (eds), Internationalization and Domestic Politics (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996), pp 159. 111 Kenneth Lieberthal: ―Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy‖, in Harry Harding (ed.), China’s Foreign Relations in the 1980s (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1984). 112 Thomas W. Robinson: ―China‘s Foreign Policy from the 140s to the 1990s‖, in Thomas W. Robinson and David Shamburg (eds.): Chinese Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice, (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1994), pp.555-602. 113 Michael H. Hunt: The Genesis of Chinese Communist Foreign Policy, (New York: Columbia University Press, 1996), pp.159-231. 114 David M. Lampton: ―China‘s Foreign and National Security Policy-Making Process: Is It Changing, and Does It Matter?‖ in David M. Lampton (ed.): The Making of Chinese Foreign and security Policy in the era of Reform 1979-2000, (Stanford, California: Stanford University Press, 2001), pp.1-36. 115 Lu Ning: The Dynamics of Foreign-Policy Decision making in China, (Boulder: Westview Press, 2000), 2nd ed., pp.161-182. 116 Lieberthal and Okensenberg, 1988, pp. 1-34. 117 Chao Chien-min: ―Toiao-tiao vs. Kuai-kuai: a perennial dispute between the central and local Governments in Mainland China‖, Issues and Studies, (August 1991), pp 31-46. 118 Carol Lee and Suisheng Zhao: ―Introduction: core issues in understanding the decision process,‖ and Carol Lee: ―the party Leadership system‖, in Carol Lee and Suisheng Zhao (ed.): Decision Making in Deng’s China: Perspectives from insiders”, (New York and London: M.E. Sharpe, 1995). p. 98. 109

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With regard to the study of international variables in Chinese policymaking, Samuel Kim focuses on the interplay between decision-makers‘ perceptions of international regimes.119 Elizabeth Economy also argues that International regimes and the process of establishing international regimes may influence the manner in which a participant state formulates policy.120 Thomas G. Moore and Dixia Tang consider the influences of international economic organizations.121 Wexing Hu argues that China decision-maker‘s learning and subscription to international regimes was driven by the need of international economic cooperation and domestic bureaucracy bargaining.122 Thomas Robinson emphasizes three foreign independent variables: the foreign policies of superpowers, the structure of the international system, and China‘s calculation of its relative power and interests.123 One of my book's basic assumptions is that domestic political interdependent variables play far less role than international regimes, in some conditions. They only serve as a catalyst or play a deterrent role in the interaction between international regimes and foreign policy coordination in China. Moreover, I treat international regimes as an independent variable to explain the development of foreign policy coordination in China. In this respect, international regimes become the causes instead of the consequences 124of Chinese domestic politics.

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2.2.2 International Regimes and Policymaking Regimes are regularized practices consisting of recognized roles and clusters of rules that constrain activity and shape expectations; regimes make states more concerned with the factors that temper the effects of anarchy in the international system and facilitate cooperation. International regimes are relatively efficient institutions, compared with the alternative of having a myriad of unrelated agreements, since their principles, rules, and institutions create linkages among issues that give actors incentives to reach mutually beneficial agreements. Far from being threats to governments (in which case it would be hard to understand why they exist at all), they permit governments to attain objectives that would otherwise be unattainable. States modify their preferences and behavior on the basis of international regimes context for policy making, a context that is external to the actors' selfidentities and mutual understandings. International regimes do so in part by facilitating intergovernmental agreements. They facilitate agreements by raising the anticipated costs of

119

Samuel S. Kim: China and World: Chinese Foreign Policy faces the new millennium, (Boulder: Westview Press, 1998). 120 David M. Lampton (ed.), The Making of Chinese Foreign and security Policy in the era of Reform 1979-2000, (Stanford, California: Stanford University Press,2001),p. 200 121 Thomas G. Moore and Dixia Tang:‖ Empowered and restrained: Chinese Foreign Policy in the age of economic Interdependence‖, in David M. Lampton (ed.), The Making of Chinese Foreign and security Policy in the era of Reform 1979-2000, (Stanford, California: Stanford University Press,2001), pp 200. 122 Richard Weixing Hu: ―Play by international rules: the development of China‘s nuclear export control‖, http://www.uga.edu/~cits/publications/monitor_fa_win_1998.pdf. 123 Thomas W. Robinson: ―China‘s Foreign Policy from the 1940s to the 1990s‖, in Robinson, Thomas W. and David Shambaugh eds., Chinese Foreign Policy: Theory and Practice,(Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1994), pp.555602. 124 Keohane and Milner: Internationalization and Domestic Politics, (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996).

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violating others‘ property rights, by altering transaction costs through the clustering of issues, and by providing reliable information to members.‖125 In many different issue areas, international regimes show their influences in policymaking, and we can explain these influences from four different analytical contexts: game-theoretical, functional, structural, and cognitive.126 Game-theoretic approaches incorporate exogenously determined preference orderings into the analysis. While these preference rankings, in principle, include all domestic factors that may impinge on a state's overall preferences, most research emphasizes that policymaking is primarily constrained by the structure of the interstate game. Functional theories also assume policy makers are rational actors, and introduce market imperfections, transactions and information costs and uncertainty. Structural explanations, particularly including the theory of hegemonic stability, attempt to show how international conditions define the environment for policymaking. Cognitive context focuses on the inter-subjective meaning, such as knowledge and beliefs which structures policymaking. Cognitivists argue, "There are no fixed 'national interest' and no 'optimal regime.127 According to Goldstein and Keohane, there are three types of beliefs: worldviews, principled beliefs, and causal beliefs. These can affect policymaking, by providing principled or causal road maps, affecting strategies where there is no unique equilibrium and becoming embedded in institutions.128

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2.2.2.1 Game-Theoretical Context for Policymaking Game theory is about a unit's behavior in a strategic situation. In international society, on the one hand, the pursuit of rational common goods led to cooperation; on the other hand, the pursuit of rational self-interest or preference among different states often frustrates international cooperation. Thus game theory has yielded some insights into policymaking toward international regimes. Many of the policymaking problems can be modeled as games or game-like situations. The theory of games has a special attraction to international regime because in a game the objective is clear (to win or to achieve the maximum score or "payoff"), the rules are clear and the only problem is to find the most logical strategy for an individual to pursue.129

2.2.2.2 Functional Context for Policymaking International regimes can alter the costs and benefits of cooperation. Thus, like a neorealist, the functional approach to international environmental regime formation suggests that states cooperate in order to reduce uncertainty and transaction costs; the question of interest construction is not central. According to Keohane, international regimes perform the valuable factions of reducing the costs of legitimate transactions, while increasing the costs of legitimate ones, and of 125

Keohane: 1984, pp. 97-112. See Stephan Haggard and Beth A. Simmons, ―Theories of International Regimes‖, International organization 41, 3, (Summer 1987), p. 498. 127 Stephan Haggard and Beth A. Simmons, ―Theories of International Regimes‖, International organization 41, 3, (Summer 1987), pp 492-516. 128 Judith, Keohane, Robert O. and Goldstein (ed.): Ideas and Foreign Policy: Beliefs, Institutions, and Political Change, (Ithaca: Cornell University Princeton, 1993). 129 Robert Axelrod: the Evolution of Cooperation, (New York: Basic Books, 1981), pp. 17-27. 126

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reducing uncertainty for policymaking.130 ―For reasons of reputation, as well as fear of retaliation and concern about effects of precedents, egoistic governments may follow the rules and principles of international regimes even when myopic self-interest counsels them not to do so.‖131 Many scholars of international regimes insist on the utility-maximizing behavior of individuals and the assumption of efficiency-seeking organizational design when they study the international regime according to functional context. In intergovernmental accounts, selfmaximizing actors (member states) create institutions and regimes because these institutions help them surmount collective action problems and achieve gains from exchange.132

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2.2.2.3 Structural Context for Policymaking Structural Context focuses on the external environmental factors that structure policymaking based on the degree to which one actor dominates international regimes and the relative capability structure.133 This context is based on such knowledge that global distribution of power is the structural characteristic that determines the nature of global order, for example, Kindleberger linked global distribution of power to open international economic regime.134 Stein argues that interests determine regimes, and that the distribution of power should be viewed as one determinant of interest for policy making.135 A state's degree of power in the international system is one of the things that explains its preferences, and thus determines the policymaking for international regimes. Structural arguments should be recognized as constituting the determinants of those different patterns of interest that underlie the regime themselves. For structural realists, policymaking is determined by a state's position in the international system, the structure of which is defined by the distribution of capabilities.136 According to Homer-Dixon, structural realism scholars have paid little attention to transboundary environmental problems, perhaps because the relationship of these problems to international military and economic structures is unclear. These new problems, however, may soon increase the level of conflict in the international system, making them more acceptable research topics for the neorealist.137

2.2.2.4. Cognitive Context for Policymaking International regimes arise because actors forgo independent policy making and seek interdependent decision. So knowledge of how regime works and common knowledge among different actors is becoming very important. According to Stein, changes in the nature of a policymaker‘s understanding about how the world works, and knowledge, can also transform 130

Robert O. Keohane: After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Economy, (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1986), pp 107. 131 Keohane:, 1986,pp 106 132 Paul Pierson:―The Path to European Integration: A Historical Institutionalism Analysis ‖,Political Relations and Institutions Research Group Working Paper 2.39 ,November 1996, from www.ciao.net. 133 Jennifer Sterling-Folker: ―Realist Environment, Liberal Process, and Domestic-Level Variables‖, International Studies Quarterly, (Summer 1997) 41, 1-25. 134 Charles P. Kindleberger: Comparative political economy: a retrospective, (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2000). 135 Arthur Stein, Cooperation and Collaboration: ―Regimes in an Anarchic World‖, in David A. Baldwin (ed.), Neorealism and Neoliberalism: the Contemporary Debate,(New York: Columbia University Press, 1993), pp 48. 136 Kenneth N Waltz.: Theory of International Politics, (London: Addison-Wesley, 1979). 137 Thomas Homer-Dixon: Environment, Scarcity, and Violence, (Princeton NJ.: Princeton University Press, 1999).

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policymaking and therefore the prospects for international cooperation and regime information.138 Foreign policy coordination toward international regimes, which typically entails an evolution of knowledge on the policy makers, is dependent on such cognitive factors as scientific knowledge, ideas, and international public opinion, including the literature of the epistemic community‘s139 studies of social learning processes, and negotiation-analytic modeling. Cognitive context can explain the whole procedure of international regimes. In this sense, to learn is to develop policymakers‘ knowledge by study or experience in some environment.140 New environment information and feedback of international regimes alter prior knowledge about international regimes. Nye argues that learning often involves a shift from overly simple generalizations to complex, integrated understandings grounded in realistic attention to detail. Learning occurs internationally when new knowledge is used to redefine the content of the national interest. It goes further to take effect in the whole procedure of international regimes.141 According to Peter Hass, epistemic communities refer to networks of knowledge-based experts – generally more transnational than national in scope and orientation – who play the ―knowledge broker‖ role of articulating the cause-and effect relationship of complex problems of common national and global concern. They propose specific policy prescriptions and identify salient issues and problems for international negotiation. As an epistemic community grows and expands in size and strength, its shared understanding and shared concern becomes the key to its ability to participate in and frame policymaking for the international regimes.142 Based on the signal politics model of cognitive context, scientific knowledge can produce signals, which result in action at the political policy-making level. Other signals are received from the global community, public opinion and through economic impact modeling. The risks politics model, in which the scientific certainty is not so central, represents another option for interaction but the policy-makers call for a reasonable estimate on scenarios and related risks. In the process of foreign policy coordination, these two interact at three levels: setting the agenda and identification of the problem, defining policies, and implementation and evaluation.

138

Arthur Stein: ―Cooperation and Collaboration: Regimes in an Anarchic World‖, in David A. Baldwin (ed.), Neorealism and Neoliberalism: the Contemporary Debate, (New York: Columbia University Press, 1993), pp 49. 139 Peter M. Hass: Special Issue on 'Knowledge, Power and International Policy Coordination', International Organization, Vol46, No1, 1992. 140 Robert Jervis: Perception and Misperception in International Politics, (Princeton, NJ.:Princeton University), pp 35-117. 141 Joseph S. Nye, Jr, ―Nuclear Learning and U.S.-Soviet Security regimes‖, International Organization 41, 3, (Summer 1987), pp 378. 142 Peter M. Haas:“ Epistemic Communities and International Policy Coordination”, in International Organization, Vol.46,1989.

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Figure 2.3. Cognitive context.

Based on the discussion above, we can illustrate the international regimes‘ influence in the following table: Table 2.2. The four context to analysis of international regime influence on policymaking Main focus Game theoretical Preference, strategy and payoff, bargain of policy making Context

Model of theoretical context Dilemma of Prisoners

Representative Alxlord

Dilemma of stunt

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Functional Context Structural Context Cognitive Context

Market ailure, transaction cost, and information.

Public choice New functionalism

Keohane, Neo-liberal Institutionalism

Power, independence and structural Policymaking for Regime depends on Structure and power. Learning, Knowledge, Ideology, value And belief of actors in regime

Hegemony Stability

Kindleberger Nye Neo-realism

Learning theory Signal politics theory Epistemic community theory

Ernst Hass

From the above, we can conclude that the impacts imposed by international regimes may include three aspects. First, knowledge-based impacts from learning, adopting new ideas, international norms and culture. Second, domestic-institutions-based impacts agenda setting, top leaders and new domestic institutions. Third, interests-based impacts from distribution of international financials funds. None of these three approaches, however, makes a concerted effort to analyze foreign policy coordination and international regimes. We can integrate these three contexts to the analysis of the relationship between international regimes and foreign policy coordination in China.

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2.3 INTERNATIONAL REGIMES AND CHINA 2.3.1 Different Models on Chinese Policymaking

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2.3.1.1 Organization and Bureaucratic: Two Model Theory on Foreign Policy Coordination A major problem in policy making is the problem of foreign policy coordination. Because bureaucracies, to function, must divide knowledge, resources and policy making authority among various departments, (i.e. program, human resources, investments, communications) there is no one person who can coordinate and control all of the actions taken by the foundation unit. Thus, foreign policy coordination is necessary. This is particularly evident in the climate change policy case where complexity of climate change prevents any single bureaucracy from making all-important decisions. Allison‘s organization model theory serves to solve the foreign policy coordination question by getting the various parts of an organization to pull together and act in unison. According to Allison, standard operating procedures (SOPs) solve the problem of coordination and determine which parts of the bureaucracy are to handle the problem, how the problem is to be handled, and develops a set of acceptable responses to the problem. Allison argues that how foreign policy coordination is to be achieved is determined in advance of the emergence of any one problem, based on standard operating procedures (SOPs), and which constrain the formation of foreign policy coordination. According to Allison, because big changes make foreign policy coordination difficult, alternatives that only involve small or incremental changes in the SOP are considered.143 In the practice of foreign policy coordination, there are many conflicts that always exist among different bureaucracies. The bureaucratic politics model of Allison could answer this question. The bureaucratic politics model posits that organizational decisions about final action do not result from orderly consideration at a macro level but, instead, reflect a sometimes-messy amalgamation of choices, games, compromises, internal politics, and prior actions that are executed by chance, not as a result of an explicit decision. In this model, therefore, the goals, structure and policies of a foundation emerge from an ongoing process of bargaining and negotiating among various groups within the foundation, often in the competition among staff for scarce resources. The primary characteristic of the governmental politics model is that decisions are best understood as the result of bargaining among the actors involved in the decision making process. Allision argues that the actors in foreign policy coordination are not a unitary nation, nor a conglomerate of organizations, but rather a number of individual players. These players share power, and they differ among themselves as to what must be done in any particular situation. They have different interests, which lead them to offer different solutions to problems, ―Where you stand depends on where you sit‖. Policies or decisions are the result of bargaining between the leaders of the various departments and agencies that make up the bureaucracy. Distribution of power and institutional arrangements among leaders in bureaucracies determines foreign policy

143

Allison, 1971, Ch3-4.

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coordination, both of which define available roles, which in turn define interests and determine behavior.144

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2.3.1.2 Literature on Policy Making in China Zhao Quansheng argues that there are several changes in the policy making of China in the context of horizontal or collective authoritarianism.145 first, the existence of, and debates among power centers at the top levels; second, the representation of bureaucratic interests in political institutions; third, a broadening of the agenda of policy issues; fourth, the growing involvement of local interests in the central government; fifth, the increasing participation of intellectuals and think tanks; sixth, the influence of general political and economic conditions; seventh, an increased sensitivity to the power and opinions of the Chinese people.146 According to Bachman, the main characteristics of the Chinese policymaking process include: First, the power of the top leader to control the agenda and set the basic terms of overall foreign relations. Second, only a small number of high-ranking officials have been involved. Third, the rationality in the policy process may also have declined. Fourth, the linkages across issues are relatively weak, and that for the most part, foreign policy making is compartmentalized vertically.147 Based on Allison‘s organization and bureaucratic model on foreign policy coordination, Lieberthal and Oksenberg argue that whether implicit or explicit, analyses of Chinese politics make certain assumptions about the exact nature of the policy process in China. Among the competing models of policymaking found in the literature are the power, policy and bureaucratic or fragmented authoritarianism models.148 As characterized by Lieberthal and Oksenberg, the power model stresses the centrality of individual or factional power struggles among the top leaders of the Communist Party with little attention generally paid to the substantive issues. The policy model, on the other hand, views policy as a product of reasoned debate over substantive issues among the top leaders. The bureaucratic politics model, in contrast, treats the structure of the bureaucracy as a critical element of the policy process. That is, policy outcomes are largely the product of inter-agency competition rather than simply factional power struggles or reasoned debates. Given the relatively low salience of international environmental questions in domestic politics, the bureaucratic model would seem to provide the more fruitful approach to an analysis of China's global warming policy. Generally speaking, the main bureaucratic elements shaping the policy process in China are the core group of 25-30 top leaders, liaison

144

Ibid.,Ch5-6. Horizontal authoritarianism refers to a policy-making process that is essentially authoritarian and highly centralized, but in which several power centered at the top level represent and coordinate various interests and opinions. Multiple command channels, both institutional and adhoc, exist. More players participate in the foreign policy-making process, and conflicting voices may occasionally represent different interests and policies. Quansheng Zhao: Interpreting Chinese Foreign Policy: The Micro-Macro Linkage Approach, (Hong Kong: Oxford University Press, 1996, pp. 81. 146 Quansheng Zhao: Interpreting Chinese Foreign Policy: The Micro-Macro Linkage Approach, (Hong Kong: Oxford University Press, 1996), pp 82. 147 David Bachman ―structure and process in the Making of Chinese Foreign Policy‖, in Samuel S. Kim: China and World: Chinese Foreign Policy faces the new millennium, (Boulder: Westview Press, 1998), pp 48. 148 Lieberthal and Okensenberg, 1988, pp. 1-34. 145

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leadership groups which include research centers and institutes, State Council commissions, and line ministries.149

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2.3.2 International Regimes and China’s Policymaking Thomas Robinson and David Shambaugh have argued that Chinese domestic politics under some conditions have been increasingly shaped by international regimes since the 1980s.150Among the literature on the international regime‘s influences on Chinese policymaking, Elizabeth Economy and Margaret Pearson have made the greatest contribution to understanding the relation between international regimes and Chinese domestic policymaking. Elizabeth Economy articulates four factors. First, the transmission of new ideas and knowledge can contribute to the learning process and to changes in behavioral norms by domestic actors. Second, the requirements of the regime may result in new domestic actors, new bureaucratic arrangements, or the new bureaucratic linkages that influence policy outcomes. Third, regimes often provide training opportunities, financial transfers, and technological advances that enable policy change. Fourth, international regimes spur the emergence of new domestic institutions to manage China‘s involvement in the regimes and encourage the introduction of new actors from the scientific and expert communities into prominent policy-making positions.151 According to Pearson, there are three factors that can affect Chinese policymaking: First, the transmission of new ideas; second, agenda setting by introducing new norms and rules of the multilateral economic institutions as leverage for domestic political actors; third, impacts on top political leaders allow the views and/or interests of international regimes to be articulated directly to key government actors.152 However, both Economy and Pearson do not sufficiently evaluate these three variables in analyzing Chinese policymaking; they also neglect the Chinese bureaucratic policymaking structure, which is modeled as an ―authoritarian fragmented model‖. Even in their general argument concerning the relation between international regimes and Chinese policymaking, they don‘t make a very detailed and deep analysis because they lack the personal contact with Chinese decision-makers in the economic and environmental fields, for example, both of them exaggerate the roles of international training, international foundations and epistemic communities. Moreover, they neglect the coordination role of new bureaucratic institutions imposed by the international regimes (such as coordination institutions for ODI to protect ozone layer and for reducing GHG emissions). As is developed in the current research, most

149

Ibid., pp. 1-34. Robinson, Thomas and David Shambaugh:― Chinese Foreign Policy pluralization in foreign affairs‖, in David Lampton(ed.), the Making of Chinese Foreign and security Policy in the Era of Reform 1978-2000. (Stanford, California, Stanford University 2001). 151 Elizabeth Economy: ―The impact of international regimes on China‘s foreign policy-making: Broading perspectives and policies but only to a point‖, in David Lampton (ed.), the Making of Chinese Foreign and security Policy in the Era of Reform 1978-2000., (Stanford, California, Stanford University 2001), pp 236-257. 152 Margaret M. Pearson: ―The Major Multilateral economic Institutions Engage China‖, in Alistair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross (ed.): Engaging China: the management of an emerging power, (London; New York: Routledge, 1999). 150

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of these institutions serve as information channels and bargaining places for Chinese policy makers. It is well known that international regimes may change Chinese policymaking to some extent. But there are two questions to be faced by political science scholars. First, they must determine what aspects of Chinese policymaking are reached by international regimes: policymaking structure and model, institutional arrangements or only some of the policymakers‘ personnel factors? Second, in what way or by what intermediate variables the international regimes function in changing Chinese policymaking? Before answering these two questions, we should pay attention to Foreign policy coordination in Chinese structures.

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2.3.3 Foreign Policy Coordination in China Foreign policy coordination is a central problem in any bureaucratic system153. Referring to China, Doak Barnett argues that though coordinating mechanisms were less well – developed or institutionalized in China than in many other countries, they are changing ‗from individual to collective decision-making‘154. By finding the evidence of on increasing foreign policy coordination in China, I try to counter the Lieberthal and Oksenberg argument, which said, ―The policy process in this sphere (i.e., energy industry) is disjointed, protracted, and incremental. It is disjointed, with key decisions made in a number of different and only loosely coordinated agencies and interagency decisional bodies‖.155 David Bachman argues that coordination in China still takes place only at very high levels in the system, but reforms have decentralized large amounts of resources and given greater discretionary to lower levels in the system.156 Since the 1990s, many scholars have touched upon the development of coordination in the Chinese political system. Their approaches are traced below: First, it is about the necessity and importance of foreign policy coordination in China. Samuel Kim argues that coordination still takes place only at very high levels in the system. But he notes that reforms have decentralized large amounts of resources and given greater discretionary power to lower levels in the system.157 Bachman argues that there is considerable interdependence among the organizations and bureaucracies. Livernash and Mock argue that China‘s organizations and bureaucracies must have some minimally acceptable level of cooperation with other important actors in the system if they are to get things done.158 According to John P. Burns, there are three incentives for horizontal foreign policy coordination: 1. fiscal pressures, 2. economic globalization, and 3. economic

153

Burns, John P.: Horizontal Government: policy coordination in China, paper prepared for the International Conference on Governance in Asia: Culture, Ethics, Institutional reform and Policy change, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, December 2002. 154 Doak Barnett: The Making of Foreign Policy in China, (Boulder, Westview Press), 1985 pp 4-15. 155 Lieberthal and Okensenberg, 1988 , pp 1-34. 156 Bachman, 1998, pp. 47-48. 157 Ibid. p. 49. 158 Bachman, 1998, pp. 40-41.

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development.159 In China, any major project or policy requires a gradual and protracted process of consensus and alliance building among competing bureaucracies at each level to gain support both vertically and horizontally in the bureaucratic system. All have to be consulted and supportive if policies are to move forward. Key decisions are therefore often a result of a series of reinforcing compromises made in a number of only loosely coordinated policy-making bodies over a long period.160 Second, it is about the conflicts and foreign policy coordination in China, because bureaus are also utility maximizers, they come into conflicts with other bureaus as each seeks to expand its turf. Foreign policy coordination resolves the conflicts among different bureaucracies. Bureaus in China behave in the same way. As Lampton argues in his study on the bureaucratic politics surrounding the management of water in China, ―Each organization and unit had its own ideology, sense of mission, and priorities, which are sacred to it. Each believes that its objectives truly embody the general welfare. Each organization is afraid that it not be adequately consulted and that its interests are ignored. In order to resolve these sorts of conflicts as they apply to specific projects, the Chinese leadership repeatedly has had to resort to creating ad hoc inter-ministerial groups to forge compromises.‖161 In their study of the energy sector in the 1980s, Lieberthal and Oksenberg found that ―units jealously protect their ranks and the prerogatives that go with them. They tend to disregard requests from units with which they have no defined relationship, particularly if the request comes in the form of directive instruction.‖162 Third, in respect of the characteristics of foreign policy coordination in China, Lu Ning argues that the Chinese political system is known for its heavy reliance on meetings and official documents to build policy consensus and to ensure foreign policy coordination.163 According to Lampton, Lieberthal and Oksenberg, there are three characteristics of politics and administration in China: first, the co-existence of very strong power elite that meets few formal constraints in the form of laws or institutions, and an extremely complex organization of power on lower administrative levels.164 Second, the duplication of both Party and government structures on all levels of the Chinese bureaucracy creates a complex matrix where authority is fragmented along vertical (functional) bureaucracies and horizontal (territorial) co-coordinating bodies. Third, new policy initiatives affect a myriad of bureaucratic actors with vaguely defined and sometimes overlapping jurisdictions, conflicting interests, and complex, distinct structures of authority.165 China-specific incentives the Chinese political system which is characterized by a single party monopoly, weak institutions for resolving disputes at the top and consensus decision making, and experiments with central planning reinforces the centrality of vertical communication.

159

Burns, John P.: Horizontal Government: policy coordination in China, paper prepared for the International Conference on Governance in Asia: Culture, Ethics, Institutional reform and Policy change, City University of Hong Kong, (Hong Kong: December 2002). 160 Lieberthal and Okensenberg, 1988, pp. 149-152. 161 Ibid., p.132. 162 Lieberthal and Okensenberg, 1988, p. 150. 163 Lu,.2000,p.110. 164 Lieberthal and Okensenberg, 1988, pp. 1-34. 165 Ibid., 150. Lin Gan :"Global Environmental Policy in Social Contexts: The Case of China," Knowledge and Policy: The International Journal of Knowledge Transfer and Utilization. Vol.5, No.4, (winter 1991-1992).

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Fourth, regarding the problems of foreign policy coordination in China, Helparn found that there are serious problems of coordination within the Chinese bureaucracy. These problems stem both from a lack of necessary information or analytical capacity at the top, and from a failure of subordinate units, to comply with the leadership‘s decisions.166 The leadership continuously negotiates and builds alliances both upwards and sideways in the system, collects and protects its own information,167 and creates its own programmes.168 Bargaining and consensus building is claimed to be especially true is respect of funding issues, cross-Sectoral issues and issues that are highly complex.169 All inter-ministry or interdepartmental coordination must take place at the very top. To prevent the formation of factions, communication among subordinates in different ministries or departments is inhibited. Few of these studies touch upon the correlation between international regimes and foreign policy coordination in China among different bureaucratic sections. Moreover, most scholars try to apply domestic political variables to explain coordination or bargaining in Chinese policymaking .The underlying premise of their arguments is to emphasize the study of specific characteristics of the Chinese policymaking structure. Referring to the Chinese policymaking structure, Kenneth G. Lieberthal and Michael Oksenberg stress the structure of bureaucratic authority and the realities of bureaucratic practice to theorize what they call a ―Fragmented Authoritarianism‖ model.170 They argue that authority below the very peak of the Chinese Political system is fragmented and disjointed,171 and the fragmented, segmented, and stratified structure of the state promotes a system of negotiations, bargaining, and the seeking of consensus among affected bureaucracies.172 Under this model, negotiations, bargaining,173 power exchange or reciprocity, and consensus building institutional pluralism174 are required in Chinese domestic policymaking.175

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166

Nina P Halpern: ―Information Flows and Policy Coordination in the Chinese Bureaucracy‖, Kenneth G. Lieberthal David Lampton Bureaucracy (ed.): politics, and decision making in Post-Mao China (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1992). 167 Ibid. 167 Lieberthal and Okensenberg,1988, pp. 1-34. 168 Ibid., p. 32. 169 Lester Ross: Environmental Policy in China, (Bloomington and Indianapolis: Indiana University Press. 1988), p. 191. 170 David Lampton Kenneth G. Lieberthal (ed.): Bureaucracy, politics, and decision making in Post-Mao China, (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1992), p. 11. 171 Ibid., pp 2-6 Lieberthal and Okensenberg, 1988, pp. 23-24. 172 Ibid. pp. 23-24. 173 Lampoon refer "bargaining" as an authority relationship of "reciprocal control ... among representatives of hierarchies."' See David Lampton: ―A plum for a peach: bargaining, Interest, and Bureaucratic politics in China‖, in Kenneth G. Lieberthal and David Lampton (ed.): Bureaucracy, politics, and decision making in PostMao China, (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1992), 1992. 174 Carol Lee Harrin and Suisheng Zhao put forward that institutional pluralism is characterized by conflict among political leaders and bureaucrats who must be reckoned with mainly according to the institutional resources provided by their offices Carol Lee Harrin and Suisheng Zhao (ed.): Decision making in Deng’s China Perspectives from Insiders, (New York :M.E. Sharpe Armonk) ,1995, pp 240-242. 175 David Lampton and Kenneth G. Lieberthal (ed.): Bureaucracy, politics, and decision making in Post-Mao China, (Berkeley : University of California Press, 1992) , p. 12.

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According to the fragmented authoritarianism model, there are numerous reporting lines throughout the system through party, functional as well as territorial organs with resultant problems of governance.176 One territorial level organization contains within it several bureaucratic ranks. A unit cannot issue binding orders to another unit at the same bureaucratic rank, not even if it is at a higher territorial level. Each territorial unit still has considerable power to control the unit one level down; therefore, bureaucrats at every level spend volumes of time negotiating for more flexibility. However, there are two main critiques for this model, namely the bureaucratic and the market-oriented critiques, leaving fragmented authoritarianism in a middle position. Hamrin and Zhao177 find that the fragmented authoritarianism approach overstates the weakness of the centre in describing delegation of authority as an uncontrolled process. They prefer the term bureaucratic authoritarianism, as this in their opinion describes better the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) attempt to incorporate all organizations in society in the party-state structure, claiming unlimited authority. Lester Ross, on the other hand, places more emphasis on the emerging role of the market in environmental policy implementation. He distinguishes between three implementation alternatives that all have been employed in Chinese environmental policy.178

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2.4 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION This chapter started by defining foreign policy coordination in China. The dependent variable to be studied in this report is foreign policy coordination in China, and the independent variable is the international regime (the UNFCCC). It was further suggested that international regime (the UNFCCC) should be examined according to interest based, knowledge based and domestic institution based assessments, which are indicated in practice by norms and rules in the UNFCCC and related protocol, Communications from Parties in the UNFCCC, issues resolving procedures through Conference of the Parties (COP), and Global Environmental Facility (Financial Mechanism) for climate change (GEF). Subsequently, three framework conditions believed to influence foreign policy coordination in China were suggested. Included was a hypothesis that the international regime (the UNFCCC) helps the development of foreign policy coordination in China. My book aims to test whether international regimes (independent variables) can contribute to the foreign policy coordination in China (dependent variables). In order to demonstrate this, I first try to prove that impacts imposed by international regimes (intermediate variables) contribute to the development of foreign policy coordination in China. The suggested causal relationships between the independent variables and the dependent variable are summarized in Figure 2.2. The figure below is my explanatory context, and it

176

Ibid. p. 169. Ibid., pp. 150-162. 178 Ross Lester: Environmental Policy in China, (Bloomington and Indianapolis: Indiana University Press, 1988), pp. 1-24. 177

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expresses how international regimes contribute to the development of the foreign policy coordination in China.

Figure 2.4. The explanatory framework for the UNFCCC and foreign policy coordination in China.

179

In my research, the independent variables are the UNFCCC. By studying the interaction between international regimes effects (i.e. interaction change of interests, information and knowledge, and domestic institutions) and bargaining, final policymaking or consensus (Tong Yi Kou Jing) we can learn the characteristic of the dependent variables (foreign policy coordination in China), and trace the foreign policy coordination process. As reviewed above, this book uses three indicators: ―bargaining,‖ ―consensus (Tong Yi Kou Jing)‖ and ―making of final decision in coordination level‖ to evaluate the foreign policy coordination in China. In the following chapters, this book tries to prove impacts imposed by international regimes lead to the increase of ―bargaining,‖ ―consensus (Tong Yi Kou Jing)‖ and ―making of final decision at the coordination level.‖ These impacts include: norms and rules in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and 179

In the interaction between the international regimes and policy coordination in China , ― window agency‖ functions as a medium to generate the window from which the interests and knowledge related to the UNFCCC flow into the different bureaucracies , and it also brings the feedback of policy consensus of China to the UNFCCC

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related protocol, Communications from Parties in the UNFCCC, issues resolving procedures through Conference of the Parties (COP), and Global Environmental Facility (Financial Mechanism) for climate change (GEF). This book makes it clear that the UNFCCC contributes to the development of foreign policy coordination in China. Thus, I try to demonstrate three points in order to build a bridge between international regimes and foreign policy coordination in China from the explanatory contexts of knowledge, interests and domestic-based factors. First, interests imposed by international regimes can facilitate foreign policy coordination in China. There are two kinds of these interests: the first includes: international funds, and international environmental aid projects. The second includes the knowledge of new interests after joining the international regimes (For example, before China joins the global struggles against global warming, none of the Chinese officials know global warming is a potential great threat to Chinese national interests. Things are different after the 1992 Rio summit). In my empirical study, the Global Environmental Facility (Financial Mechanism) for climate change (GEF) is my research focus. Second, knowledge imposed by international regimes can be positive variables in the development of the foreign policy coordination in China. There are three kinds of knowledge: (1)international epistemic community, which includes international expert‘s intergovernmental environmental agency and NGOs; (2) norms, which means the standards of behavior defined in terms of rights and obligations in the UNFCCC and Kyoto protocol; (3) specialized knowledge on global warming, which mainly focuses on the climate science, and environmental science. This book puts great emphasis on the study of issues to be resolved through the Conference of the Parties (COP) and Communications from Parties in the UNFCCC. Third, domestic institutions imposed by international regimes can facilitate the foreign policy coordination in China. There are many new domestic institutions imposed by international regimes, including: (1) Chinese Agenda 21 Administration Center composed of two sections from Ministry of Science and Technology, and Developmental Planning Committee (2) Chinese National Coordination Committee for Climate. The research of this book focuses mainly on the second institution. According to the UNFCCC, Kyoto Protocol and other documents from COP 1- COP8, every country should build foreign policy coordination institution and strengthen the foreign policy coordination capacity building. In every COP conference, a national report on foreign policy coordination building should be presented and distributed to other countries for reference.180

180

www.unfccc.int

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Chapter 3

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THE BACKGROUND OF GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL REGIMES Today, the world‘s scientists now regard climate change as one of the most serious global problems that the world faces, and the threat of global warming has become a very serious environmental security issue.181 Climate change has had a serious impact on every aspect of human economic and social life.182 It has acquired wide interests in the context of numerous policy fields, and is also a truly complex global issue. According to IPCC, based on the accepted range of climate sensitivities and plausible ranges of greenhouse gas and aerosol precursor emissions, general circulation models (GCMs) calculated that the global mean surface temperature could increase by 0.2°C per decade. The temperature change could reach 1°C – 3.5 °C by the end of the 21st century, when doubled CO2 concentration (approaching twice the pre-industrial concentration of 280 ppmv) could occur. Sea Level is projected to increase by 15 cm – 95 cm by 2100 as a result of climate change, primarily due to the thermal expansion of oceans and the melting of glacier and ice sheets.183 Accumulation of GHGs through human activities in the atmospheric window has critical impacts, because all life on Earth depends on using it as a release for energy. The impacts of temperature changes could be devastating: a rise in sea levels all around the world; an increase in extremely hot and extremely cold days; increased occurrence of droughts and flooding; more extreme rainfall events with the possibility of an increase in the occurrence and intensity of tropical storms and cyclones; an expansion in the range and incidence of serious diseases and other direct impacts on human health; as well as a loss of countless plant and animal species. Additional rapid increases in CO2 emissions could also slow down or stop the ocean circulation system that brings Europe its mild climate. Climatic changes such as these could disrupt entire ecosystems as well as agricultural and economic activity184. 181

Michael Grubb: “The green effect: negotiating targets”, international Affairs, (Summer 1990), p. 67. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)‘s annual report 1992-2001, www.ipcc.ch 183 Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC): Climate Change 2001: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, 2001. www.ipcc.ch 184 Houghton, 1994 . 182

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All states in the world should make international efforts to address the problem of global climate change. Since no country, by itself, would be able to substantially influence the climate system, international regime for climate change aversion is sought to overcome this collective aversion problem since the 1980s. Intergovernmental conferences on climate change regimes gave birth to the focus of my book – the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - in Rio 1992, which subsequently turned to attempts to regulate different climate change policy through the Conference of Parties (COP) every year since 1995. China has now become the second largest GHG emissions producer in the world. The GHG emissions of carbon dioxide in China caused by fossil fuel burning are enormous. This factor has attracted growing, worldwide attention. In the last few years, China has taken steps to respond to the international trend to prevent further global warming, especially in the context of the UNFCCC. Moreover, natural disasters, particularly the 1998 flood caused by global warming (the worst disaster since the 1940s), has driven the government to reorient its policy in the broader international context.185 China‘s policy-making toward the UNFCCC and climate change impose a great impact in the international collective action against global warming. There are three parts in this chapter. In the first part, I demonstrate that certain modes of framing the UNFCCC had important impacts on different countries foreign policy coordination during the regime building by giving an introduction to the UNFCCC. In the second part, I provide a technical and historical background for the international negotiations development of the UNFCCC (COP 1-9), in which key terms on climate change are defined, and the origins of the relevant regimes traced. In the third part, I discuss the interaction between China and climate change and introduce climate change policy in China and its background.

3.1 THE UNFCCC AND ITS CONSTITUENTS The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (the UNFCCC) was adopted on 9 May 1992, and opened for signature at the UN Conference on Environment and Development in June 1992 in Rio, where it received 155 signatures. The Convention was adopted on 9 May 1992, and opened for signature a month later at the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. It entered into force on 21 March 1994, after receiving the requisite 50 ratifications. The Convention now has 186 parties and is approaching universal membership. Mainly the convention consisted of a research agenda and the most concrete obligation for participants was to provide national reports. Oran Yang argues that there are three stages for regime formation: the agenda formation stage, the negotiation stage, and the operation stage.186 Based on the progress of the UNFCCC in recent years, it is both at the negotiation and operation stage, and has four characteristics: 185

Economy Elizabeth and Miranda A. Schreurs: Linkage Politics: The Domestic and International Dimensions of Global Environmental Protection, (Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press, 1997), p. 5. 186 Oran R. Young: 1998 and 1994.

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First, international efforts, therefore, are more likely to result in effective action, but several factors hinder the effectiveness of the UNFCCC; Second, there are multiple knowledge resources and debates of global warming; Third, the negotiation on the UNFCCC must cover several different activities, including the burning of fossil fuels--an activity central to the functioning of most societies; Fourth, the acceptability of certain proposals in the UNFCCC may differ according to national circumstances. In this stage, the focus of the UNFCCC is the Conference of Parties (COP), and in the meantime, some mechanisms of the UNFCCC (i.e., CDM, JI, and IET) are implemented in most of the world through the Global Environmental Facility (GEF). The most important principle and core content that the UNFCCC provides, inter alia, is as follows:

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“The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries, that per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low and that the share of global emissions originating in developing countries grow to meet their social and development needs. The Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capaabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof. The extent to which developing country Parties effectively implement their commitments under the Convention depend on the effective implementation by developed country Parties of their commitments under the Convention related to financial resources and transfer of technology and take fully into account that economic and social development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of the developing country Parties.”187

Accordingly, the industrialized countries began to take the first step to prevent "dangerous anthropogenic interference" with the climate by voluntarily reducing their emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000 and take the lead by voluntarily holding emissions at the 1990 levels by the year 2000. These voluntary measures were not effective, however, and many nations, including the United States, are emitting more greenhouse gases than ever before. Moreover, the fastest growth in GHG emissions in recent years has been in the developing world, where industrialization is still gathering speed. Quite a number of developed countries have attempted to get their government to commit to help the developing countries in reducing the emissions of GHG.188 Based on the documents from the UN and the development of international negotiations related to the UNFCCC, I conclude that there are different levels of the UNFCCC based on their importance in the negotiation of the UNFCCC on COP conference,189 including: ―framework level‖, ―Protocol level‖, ―Mandate and Consensus level‖, ―Mechanism Level‖, and ―Issues resolving procedures level‖.190 187

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 9 May 1992, www.unfccc.int. See UNCTAD: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development: Combating Global Warming: Possible Rules, Regulations and Administrative Arrangements for a Global Market in CO2 Emissions Entitlements, 1994, www.unctad.int. Tuchman Mathews: Preserving the Global Environment: The Challenge of Shared Leadership, (New York: Norton, 1991). 189 www.unfccc.int 190 UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol http://www.unfccc.de/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.html 188

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Yu Hongyuan Table 3.1. Different constituent of the UNFCCC Content of this level

First level (all the negotiation runs in this framework)

Second Level ( Protocol, try to build legal bond for the first level‘s framework) Third Level ( Mandate and consensus, build common principle for international negotiation, Agreements, deal with the details in the feasibility of Kyoto protocol)

Berlin Mandate , Buenos Aires Mandate Marrakech Consensus, Bonn Agreement, Hague Agreement, Marrakech Agreement

Fourth level (Financial support mechanism and GHG emissions trade mechanism for the UNFCCC)

The GEF, the JI, IET, and CDM. These mechanisms are significant to make most developing countries reduce the GHG emissions, and the industrial countries share the historical responsibilities. All the issues to be negotiated in the fourth level above

Fifth level ( Issue resolving procedures)

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The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, most countries adopt and ratify it. The Global Environmental Facility (GEF) also included. Kyoto Protocol ( though most countries ratify it , the U.S. refuses it and makes it ineffective)

Figure 3.1 Three explanation contexts for the UNFCCC

Based on the discussion of the different levels and my literature review in the last chapter, I argue that the UNFCCC‘s role in China‘s foreign policy coordination could be examined and analyzed according to interest based, knowledge based and domestic institution based approaches indicated in the different levels above. There are three intervening variables: (1) Global Environmental Facility (Financial Mechanism) for climate change (GEF), which comes from the fourth level; (2) Norms and rules in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and related protocol, which come from the fifth, second, and third level; and (3) Issues resolving procedures through the

UNFCCC1995:Berlin Mandate http://www.unfccc.de/resource/docs/cop1/07a01.pdf UNFCCC1998:http://www.unfccc.de/resource/docs/cop2/15a01.pdf UNFCCC Documents 1999: http://www.unfccc.de/resource/docs/cop4/16a01.pdf UNFCCC2001: COP 7 documents http://www.unfccc.de/cop7/documents/accords_draft.pdf

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Conference of the Parties (COP), which come from the fifth level. My empirical analysis from chapter 4 to 5 on the UNFCCC and the development of China‘s foreign policy coordination depend on these intervening variables.

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3.2 THE RISE AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL REGIME-UNFCCC Despite the initial attempts by a few researchers, environmental issues only became suitable for public discussions in international forums after being taken up by activists and politicians. Beginning with the UN Conference on Human Environment in 1972, political leaders brought these issues to the agenda of international politics. With the improvement of US-Soviet relations in the mid-1980s, the environmental issues received a place in international public discourse and in the media. In the 1990s environmental issues became headlines in global media.191 It was introduced to the political agenda, at both domestic and international levels, and it also attracted the attention of the research institutes. ―From its relatively humble beginning in the early 1980s, the subject of environment and security has become something of a major academic industry, as well as an issue of growing concern to foreign policy makers in various national capitals.‖192 Environmental issues have presently entered the international political arena in a forceful way and the debates and discussions on environmental issues have become more and more significant at different levels. Building on the legacy of Stockholm, the past two decades have witnessed a number of political initiatives in these regards. Various multilateral environmental regimes have been negotiated, which also includes the UNFCCC to resolve the climate change issues. The development of the climate change regime in the late 1980s and early 1990s rode a wave of environmental activity, which began in 1987 with the discovery of global warming and the publication of the Bruntland Commission report, Our Common Future (World Commission on Environment and Development 1987), and crested at the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro. In that conference, the United Nations Framework convention on Climate Change was created. Thus, from 1992, a lot of international negotiation and regimes building have been processed around the UNFCCC. At present, the regime building for the UNFCCC has lived through three stages at the negotiation stage193: First, agenda formation stage, during which scientific concern about global warming developed and climate change was transformed from a scientific into a human collective policy action regime –the UNFCCC; Second, international negotiation stage during which governments became heavily involved in the intergovernmental negotiations phase process around the UNFCCC; Third, operation and negotiation stage focusing on the elaboration and implementation of the protocol of the UNFCCC. 191

Lynton Caldwell: International Environmental Policy Emergence and Dimensions, (Durham: Duke University Press, 1990). 192 Caroline Thomas: The Environment in International Relations, (The Royal Institute Of International Affairs, 1992), pp 1-15. 193 Oran R. Young, 1998 and 1994.

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Figure 3.2 the Timeline of creation and development UNFCCC

Table 3.2. The creation and Development UNFCCC

Before 1992

1988 1989 1990 1990 1992 1994 1995 1997

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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

The agenda on human collective action against global warming formation stage .In the early 1980s, scientists were beginning to raise concerns about climate change. In 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) to assess the scientific knowledge on global warming. Its first major report in 1990 showed that there was broad international consensus that climate change was human-induced. UN Intergovernmental Climate change a "common concern of mankind" Hague Summit Netherlands Summit Signatories promote new institutional authority to combat global warming, involving non-unanimous decision-making Noordwijk Conference WMO & EP Scientific Global mean temperature likely to increase by c. 0.3°Cper decade UN Intergovernmental Establishment of INC/FCCC UNCED Conference Rio Earth Summit - "Rio signatories over 150 countries to the UNFCCC committed to achieving "stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system." Entry into force of the Climate Convention First Conference of the Parties (COP1), Berlin, Germany, Berlin Mandate, ― Common but differential responsibilities‖ for developing country(Group 77& China) COP3, Kyoto - Over 160 countries sign the Kyoto Protocol. Industrialized signatories commit to binding GHG reductions of a global average of 5.2% below 1990 levels for the period of 2008-2012 COP 4, Buenos Aires, Argentina - Parties set deadline to decide on Kyoto rules. The implementation of reducing the GHG in developing countries. COP5, Bonn, Germany - Parties intensify work plan in order to meet COP4 deadlines ―Bonn agreement‖ COP6, The Hague, Netherlands - Opportunity to close Kyoto loopholes and ensure real GHG reductions COP7, Marrakech the 165 nations endorsing the Marrakech consensus have adopted guidelines for implementing the Kyoto Protocol. Nations can now proceed to introduce the necessary domestic legislation to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. COP8, New Delhi , China ratify the Kyoto protocol The Second World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in September 2002.

3.2.1 The Agenda Formation Era of the UNFCCC The development of the climate change issue took place initially in the scientific arena as understanding of the greenhouse problem improved. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) convened by the United Nations in 1988 brought together thousands of the world's preeminent atmospheric scientists to assess the peer reviewed scientific literature on climate change. The IPCC study was a part of the objective to develop a consensus on scientific and other technical issues to inform governments that were developing climate

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change policies. The IPCC 1995 Second Assessment Report revealed that the increased concentrations of CO2 and other gases - such as methane and nitrous oxide - as well as other changes to the earth‘s surface, have altered the climate. According to the IPCC, "the balance of the evidence suggests a discernible human influence on the global climate". This alteration manifests itself in the form of global warming. The Earth is thought to have warmed anywhere from 0.3 to 0.6 degrees Celsius over the last 100 years. Increasing scientific evidence about the possibility of global climate change in the 1980s led to a growing awareness that human activities have been contributing to substantial increases in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Concerned that anthropogenic increases of emissions enhance the natural greenhouse effect and would result, on average, in an additional warming of the Earth's surface, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at the behest of national governments from around the world in 1988, which consist of hundreds of leading scientists and experts on global warming.194 IPCC panel was asked to assess the state of scientific knowledge concerning climate change, evaluate its potential environmental and socioeconomic impacts, and formulate realistic strategies to deal with the problem. The Panel focused on: assessing scientific information related to the various aspects of climate change; evaluating the environmental and socio-economic impacts of climate change; and formulating response strategies for the management of global climate change. In 1990, the IPCC published a report concluding that the growing accumulation of human-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere would "enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth's surface" by the next century, with continued temperature increases thereafter, unless measures were adopted to limit the emissions of these gases. On 11 December 1990, the 45th session of the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution that established the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee for a Framework Convention on Climate Change (INC/FCCC). Supported by UNEP and WMO, the mandate of the INC/FCCC was to prepare an effective framework convention on climate change. The INC held five sessions between February 1991 and May 1992. During these meetings, participants from over 150 states discussed the difficult and contentious issues of binding commitments, targets and timetables for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, financial mechanisms, technology transfer, and "common but differentiated" responsibilities of developed and developing countries. The INC sought to achieve a consensus that could be supported by a broad majority, rather than drafting a treaty that dealt with specific policies that might limit participation.195

194

Chayes Abram, 'Managing the Transition to a Global Warming Regime or What to Do Till the Treaty Comes', Foreign Policy, Vol 82, (Spring 1991). 195 James K Sebenius: 'Towards a Winning Climate Coalition,‖ in Mintzer and Leonard (eds), Negotiating Climate Change: the inside Story of the Rio Convention, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1994).

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3.2.2 The Agenda Negotiation Era of International Regimes Against Global Warming Since the adoption of the UNFCCC, Parties have continued to negotiate in order to agree on decisions and conclusions that advance its implementation. They have done so first in the INC, and then, since the Convention went into force, in the Conference of the Parties (COP) and its subsidiary bodies, the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) and the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI).

3.2.2.1 The First Conference of the Parties In addition to this work on advancing the implementation of the Convention, Parties launched a new round of negotiations at COP 1 (Berlin, March/April 1995) to strengthen the commitments of Annex I Parties. The participating nations issued the so-called Berlin Mandate, which acknowledged that the voluntary approach had failed and agreed that there would have to be binding commitments by the industrialized countries to reduce their emissions of heat-trapping gases sometime after the year 2000. The first Conference of the Parties (COP-1) at Berlin in 1995 took the decision to negotiate such a protocol to the convention within a limited time frame. Already at Berlin it was decided that the industrialized countries, whose emissions gave rise to the humaninduced effect on the climate system, would have to go ahead of developing countries with limitations on their greenhouse gas emissions.

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3.2.2.2 The Second Conference of the Parties At COP-2, which met in Geneva, Switzerland, in July 1996, the U.S. announced that it would support legally binding targets and timetables in the near future to reduce the accumulation of greenhouse gases, and challenged other industrialized nations to do the same. More than 100 countries announced they would develop such targets. In an interim negotiating meeting in Bonn, Germany, in March 1997, the Europeans then took the lead by offering specific targets, proposing that all industrialized nations be required to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases by 15 percent from 1990 levels by the year 2010. The U.S. government proposed a system of international trading in emissions rights that would significantly reduce the costs of reductions. And Bert Bolin, scientist and thenchair of the IPCC, made the case that reductions undertaken solely by industrialized countries would not be sufficient to limit warming to environmentally sustainable levels; developing countries eventually would need to curb their increasing rates of emissions as well.

3.2.3 Negotiation and Operation Stage 3.2.3.1 Kyoto Protocol On December 11, 1997, at the conclusion of COP-3 in Kyoto, Japan, more than 150 nations adopted the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol tries to help prevent our environment from being further damaged by global warming. Global Warming is a significant issue for the earth's environment because it can potentially produce an environmental disaster. One way in which we can prevent our environment from the growing threats of global warming is by passing the Kyoto Protocol Treaty. This protocol put forth regulations on fossil

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fuel, industries, and deforestation, which are just some of the problems caused by humans that lead to global warming. The Kyoto Protocol was created to bring greenhouse gases, seven percent below the levels that existed in 1990. These gases would be lowered between the years of 2008 and 2012. For the plan to be put into full effect, fifty-five industrialized nations have to sign the protocol to lower the greenhouse emissions by fifty-five percent. This unprecedented treaty committed industrialized nations to make legally binding reductions in emissions of six greenhouse gases -- carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydro fluorocarbons (HFCs), per fluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). The called-for reductions varied from country to country, but would cut emissions an average of about 5 percent below 1990 levels by the period 2008-2012. The U.S. agreed to reductions of 7 percent, Japan to reductions of 6 percent, and the members of the European Union to joint reductions of 8 percent. Key to the U.S. agreement to such a relatively ambitious target was a concurrent agreement that a system of emissions trading among industrialized countries be established, by which nations with binding limits could buy and sell among themselves the right to release greenhouse gases. The Kyoto Protocol also authorized the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), by which industrialized countries could meet part of their obligations for reducing their emissions by receiving credits for investing in projects that reduce carbon emissions in developing countries. As to the further participation of the developing countries, the U.S. pushed for a provision that would have allowed these countries to voluntarily "opt in" to binding commitments, but China and India blocked this measure, among others. The Kyoto Protocol, however, left many of its operational details unresolved and referred these to the COP and subsidiary bodies for further negotiation. The Kyoto Protocol was signed by 84 Parties, and has received some 39 ratifications. Many Annex I Parties, however, stated that they needed to have a clearer picture of the operational details of the Protocol before they could ratify it.

3.2.3.2 The Conference of Parties After Kyoto Protocol As the Kyoto Protocol is essentially a document agreed upon under the duress of time to salvage the climate issue on the world‘s agenda, the following fourth Conference of the Parties at Buenos Aires (COP-4) in 1998 agreed upon the Buenos Aires Plan of Action to specify the details of the Kyoto Protocol by the year 2000. It took another three years to accomplish this, including initial failure at COP-6 (part I) at The Hague in late 2000, resumption of the meeting at Bonn in July 2001 (COP-6, part II) – which led to the so-called Bonn Agreements on basic architecture - and final agreement at Marrakech in November 2001 (COP-7) for the finer print. In November 1998, COP-4 convened in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The goal was modest: to agree upon a plan to negotiate rules for key elements of the Kyoto Protocol, including emissions trading, compliance, carbon sinks, and the CDM. By the end of the meeting, negotiators did manage to set a deadline of November 2000 for deciding on these rules. At COP 4, Parties adopted the so-called "Buenos Aires Plan of Action", setting out a Programme of work both to advance the implementation of the Convention and to flesh out the operational details of the Kyoto Protocol. This Programme of work was conducted in the subsidiary bodies and at COP 5 (Bonn, October/November 1999), with a deadline of COP 6

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(The Hague, November 2000). However, Parties were unable to reach agreement on a package of decisions on all issues under the Buenos Aires Plan of Action at that session. At COP 6 part II (Bonn, July 2001), Parties finally succeeded in adopting the Bonn Agreements on the Implementation of the Buenos Aires Plan of Action, registering political agreement on key issues under the Buenos Aires Plan of Action. Parties also completed their work on a set of detailed decisions based on the Bonn Agreements, which were forwarded to COP 7 for formal adoption. The recently agreed upon ―Marrakech Agreements‖ included what some observers consider to be a stringent compliance mechanism with a 30% fine for non-compliance, agreements on the so-called Kyoto Mechanisms 4 in conjunction with reporting requirements and acceptance of non-compliance procedures, the use of sink management (e.g., carbon absorption of forests and other vegetated lands) to offset industrial emissions, as well as three funds to assist the developing countries in reducing their emissions and preparing them for adaptation to climate change. In conclusion, in the agenda setting, negotiation and operation stages of the UNFCCC, due to differences between developing and developed countries in their economic development levels as well as their political objectives, there is a serious divergence of opinion between them on reducing the greenhouse gas emissions. The developing countries are deeply dissatisfied with the developed countries in this respect because the latter refuse to pay necessary regard to their economic and technological backwardness and insist on linking all trade with environmental standards. They stand against the developed countries' discriminative measures that are taken to maintain environmental standards in name but, in fact, violate their right to development. They hold that the regime of reducing the GHG must be formulated on the basis of objectivity, justice and with minimum restrictions on international trade and must also truthfully conform to the principles laid down by the WTO giving special preferential treatment to the developing countries.196 The developed countries think that the developing countries should take more responsibilities, because the fastest growth in GHG emissions in recent years has been in the developing world, where industrialization is still gathering speed.197 By 1996, carbon emissions in developing countries were 44 percent over 1990 levels, and 71 percent over 1986 levels. Currently three regimes have been introduced to reduce greenhouse emissions: Joint Implementation (JI), Clean Development Regime (CDM) and International Emission Trading (IET).198

196

Richard Cooper: ―Toward a Real Global Warming Treaty‖, Foreign Affairs,( March/April, 1998). Tuchman Mathews: Preserving the Global Environment: The Challenge of Shared Leadership,( New York: Norton, 1991). 198 United Nations: Report of the Conference of the Parties on its Fourth Session, held at Kyoto from 1 to 11 December 1997, www.unfccc.int 197

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Chapter 4

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CHINA AND GLOBAL WARMING China's population has reached about 1.3 billion people, and its economy is one of the world's largest and fastest growing. Consequently, China is experiencing widespread and often acute environmental problems with severe local, national and regional consequences.199 It already produces vast amounts of GHGs, especially carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels (i.e., coal, oil and natural gas). Due to its high economic development and low energy efficiency, in the early 1990s China became the second largest national source of GHGs, and it will become the largest source by about 2020.200 China is also important in the climate change debate because it is a leading member of the developing world, giving it political and diplomatic powers that enable it to influence international environmental negotiations. In other words, China is central to successful regional and global efforts to protect environmental security. Understanding its responses to global warming and climate change is important for scholars, practitioners and laypersons interested in global warming and other critical environmental problems. More broadly, understanding China's response to global warming can help illuminate the variables that shape the climate change policies of other countries within the region and beyond. From a narrow Chinese perspective, too, the harms done by climate change are potential and real environmental threats. Climate change has been recognized as a danger in China since the 1990s and has increasingly caught the attention of China's leaders. Global warming may lead to a sea level rise and to some extreme weather events, which could cause coastal flooding and damage in China. Global warming can lead to environmental degradation and resource scarcities in China, particularly in water resources. It

199

See Vaclav Smil, China's Environmental Crisis (Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe, 1993); Japan Environmental Council, Shunichi Teranishi, and Takehisa Awaji (eds), The State of the Environment in Asia 1999/2000 (Tokyo: Springer-Verlag, 2000), pp. 98-100; The World Bank, The World Bank and climate change: East Asia (Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 1997), < http://www.worldbank.org /html/extdr/ climchng/eapclim.htm>. Accessed on 2 April 2003. 200 See the UNFCCC's Document, 'GHG Emissions and Reduction Targets', . Accessed on 15 October 2003. China's Office of National Coordination Committee for Climate Change (ed), 'China's GHG emission in the World', . Accessed on 15 October 2003.

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could also contribute to existing tensions in the region, increasing the potential for violent intra- and inter-state conflict.201

4.1 THE FAST GROWTH OF CARBON EMISSIONS IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD

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Carbon emissions from developing countries have been growing rapidly. Since the start of the industrial revolution, the U.S. and Europe account for more than 50 per cent of the total, accumulated global emissions over two centuries, while China accounts for less than eight per cent. According to the Common but Differential Responsibility, the developing countries have the inalienable right to develop. If we consider basic needs, the global economic system, and multinational corporations (MNCs), negative contribution and technology transfer, we see the following:

Figure 4.1. The Carbon Emissions will grow fast in developing countries

First is the basic energy need for developing countries. The U.S. and other developed countries‘ energy use is a luxury, wasteful and competitive. But most developing countries only struggle for their basic needs satisfaction, such as completion of industrialization of urbanization and basic physical life adequacy. It‘s an inalienable right of the developing world to further develop its economy, improve living standards, and enjoy the same living standards of people in the developed countries. Of the world's six billion people, one-third enjoys electricity. And one third -- two billion people -- simply lack access to modern energy services and living on less than $2 per day. For the poor countries, ensuring economic growth and lifting people out of poverty are necessarily important priorities. Second is from the dependence on foreign trade of some developing countries. The greater reliance on international trade is associated with an increased role for the state. Strong state may be a competitive advantage in a globalized economy, however, higher trade shares 201

China Meteorological Administration (ed), The Science, Influence and Countermeasures of Climate Change (Beijing: China Meteorological Administration, 2003), pp. 20-22.

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increase a country‘s energy intensive industry. In 2005, China's GDP is 18670 billion RMB, and its exports of goods and services about 6858 billion RMB. In 2006, China's GDP was 21438 billion RMB, and its exports of goods and services 8396 billion RMB. Thus, the MNCs home based in Europe and the U.S. should share the main responsibilities for the fast carbon emission growth. Most energy or resource intensified products made in China and India are exported to the US and EU countries. Third is the unsustainable development road. Most Asian countries are growth-oriented, an unsustainable and resource constraint economic model. These countries face the crucial need to promote development while joining the global struggles against global warming while it has contributed to global economic growth. As countries undergo industrial development, they move through a period of intensive, and often inefficient, use of fossil fuel. Efficiencies improve along this development trajectory, but eventually tend to level off. Industrialized countries such as EU, Japan and the U.S. are at a knowledge-intensive and energy levelingoff stage, while developing countries such as China are at the energy intensive-development stage. Both factors are decreasing the global efficiency of fossil fuel use. But we should notice that high growth of energy consumption is required for the capital-intensive industrialization period in current China and other developing economies, and will be reduced at post-industrialization stages sooner or later. Fourth is the technology transfer. The global dilemma between energy and environment should be solved through international coordination, cooperation and mutual assistance in clean energy development. The developing countries are deeply dissatisfied with the developed countries in this respect because the latter refuse to pay necessary regard to their economic and technological backwardness. The developed countries put low priorities on technology transfer, and insist on the high price of intellectual property rights of these technologies. Since its inception, the Global Environment Facility (GEF) has promoted technology transfer, grants, and loans from the developed world for reducing carbon emissions through a series of projects in developing countries. However, since its launch in 1991, the GEF has only allocated about $4 billion in grants. Through CDM, industrialized countries also could meet part of their obligations for reducing their emissions in Kyoto Protocol by receiving credits for investing in projects that reduce carbon emissions in developing countries. However, the developed countries also take enough enthusiasm to transfer the advanced clean energy technologies to the developing world. Based on the above considerations, I conclude that the fast growth of carbon emissions are due to globalization, urbanization and industrialization; MNCs and developed countries should share the main responsibilities for the climate crisis instead of fast-growing developed states. Thus, if these developing countries can‘t decrease their dependence on MNCs and change international division of labor, the international community can‘t avoid the trend of fast carbon emission growth.

4.2 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN CHINA AND BEYOND The preponderance of evidence on global warming and climate change is very clear: climate change presents China and the Asia-Pacific area with major challenges. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that human activities are

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adding GHGs to the atmosphere, and that this is having a discernable impact by increasing global temperatures.202 Overall, scientific predictions point to adverse global consequences, particularly in parts of the world where geographic vulnerability and poverty make adaptation difficult or impossible.203 The countries of Asia Pacific will not be immune to these changes, and in most cases they will be among the worst affected due to their vulnerable geographies and economies.204 What are the expected impacts of climate change in China and its region? Several research reports have anticipated the effects of climate change for Asia. For example, the 2001 third assessment report of the IPCC argues that Asia is potentially more susceptible to climate change than are some other regions of the world.205 It concludes that the developing countries of Asia are highly vulnerable, and their adaptability is low. Floods, forest fires, cyclones, droughts and other extreme events have increased in temperate and tropical Asia. While agricultural productivity could increase in northern parts of Asia, food security would suffer in arid, tropical and temperate Asia due to reduced agricultural and aquaculture productivity from warmer water, sea-level rise, floods, droughts and cyclones. Water availability may decrease in arid and semi-arid Asia and possibly increase in northern Asia. Increased incidence of vector-borne diseases and heat-stress will threaten human health. Temperate and tropical Asia should anticipate increased rainfall and floods. Rising sea level and more intense storms could 'displace tens of millions of people in low-lying coastal areas of temperate and tropical Asia'.206 Some parts of Asia will see adverse climate change effects on transport, increased demand for energy, and adverse impacts on tourism. Land-use and land-cover changes will threaten biodiversity, and sea-level rise will adversely impact coral reefs and mangrove areas that are important for fisheries. Climate change will likely cause - and may be causing already - many adverse impacts in China.207 China may see greater weather extremes, including droughts in the north and floods in the south, and heat stroke and death will increase, as may occurrences of malaria, dengue fever and other diseases.208 Hotter weather will increase heat-related mortality, as indicated 202

John Houghton (ed), Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1996); Daniel L. Albritton (ed), Summary for policymakers: A report of Working Group I of the IPCC (Bonn: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001), < http://www.ipcc.ch/ pub/sa(E).pdf>. Accessed on 12 December 2002. 203 African Development Bank (AFDB) (ed), Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor, Consultation Draft (Washington, DC: World Bank, October, 2002), . Accessed on 15 September 2003. 204 Cf. Paul G. Harris, 'Climate Change Priorities for East Asia: Socio-economic Impacts and International Justice', in Harris, Global Warming and East Asia, pp. 19-39. Effects may not always be adverse, but even if they are not they will likely increase unpredictability and require adaptation. 205 IPCC Working Group II, Summary for Policymakers, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Geneva: IPCC Working Group II, 19 February draft).The report does not distinguish Asia Pacific. Findings are for Asia generally except where specified; see also IPCC 1997. 206 IPCC Working Group II, Summary for Policymakers, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, p. 16. 207 Yun Li and Shuzo Nishioka, 'Global Warming Impacts on China', in Center for Energy Environment and Climate Change Energy Research Institute (ed), Proceeding of Climate Change Policy Assessment 2002 (Beijing: China Energy Research Institute, Center for Energy, Environment and Climate Change, Jan. 2002), p. 348. 208 Chris P. Nielsen and Michael B. McElroy, 'Introduction and overview', in Michael B. McElroy, Chris P. Nielsen and Peter Lydon (eds), Energizing China: Reconciling Environmental Protection and Economic Growth (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1998), pp. 24-25.

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by historical studies from China showing a strong correlation between peak summer temperatures and death rates.209 Among other prominent impacts are those to agriculture, forests, water resources, and impacts resulting from rising seas.210 Climate change affects agriculture through impacts on crops, soils, insects, weeds, diseases, and livestock.211 Thomas Schelling argues that China will suffer from climate change more than developed countries because it is much more dependent on agricultural activities.212 According to China's climate change country study, 'if recent climate change trends continue, much of Chinese agriculture is likely to face shorter growing periods and increased water deficits, requiring more irrigation'213. Under these conditions, by 2050 Chinese crop production (especially of wheat and corn) could decrease by 10 percent.214 In short, 'possible impacts of climate change on Chinese agriculture could be highly disruptive'.215 Forest areas subject to desertification in China are already increasing at a rapid rate, which will be exacerbated by climate change.216 By 1998, more than a quarter of China's land area – 2.62 million square kilometers – had already experienced desertification, with the total area being subject to desertification each year being about 6700 square kilometers.217 Most of China has experienced an average annual temperature increase of more than 1 degree Celsius in the last century, mostly since the 1970s, with substantial warming expected in this century. 218 Permafrost in northeast China is expected to disappear (releasing methane, a potent GHG, adding to global warming) and glaciers will melt. Northern China is particularly vulnerable to expected changes in rainfall, exacerbating already-severe water shortages.219 Climate change may also cause more floods in China. Between 1950 and 1989, about 8 million hectares on average suffered from flooding each year, but during the 1990s that annual average increased to nearly 23 million hectares.220 These changes can be expected to continue with global warming. Coastlines in China will be damaged by sea-level rise, as will aquifers inundated with salt water. China's 32,000-kilometer coastline is densely populated and highly developed.221 One study predicts that sea-level rise along China's coast will be 15-26 centimeters by 2050, 209

World Bank, The World Bank and Climate Change: East Asia. World Bank Group, . Accessed on October 10 2003. 210 Research Team of China Climate Change Country Study (ed), China Climate change country study (Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 1999), pp. 107-201. 211 Todd M. Johnison, Junlfenig Li, Zhongxiao Jiatng, and Robert P Tavlor (eds) ,World Bank Report- China Issues and Options in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Control, WDP 330 1996, . Accessed on 9 October 2003. 212 Thomas C. Schelling, 'What Makes Greenhouse Sense?', Foreign Affairs, 81, 3(2002), p.2. 213 Research Team of China Climate Change Country Study, China Climate Change Country Study, p.109. 214 Interview with Xu Huiyou, China Agriculture Science and Technology Institute, 12 March 2003. 215 Nielson and McElroy, 'Introduction and overview', p. 24. 216 Interview with Chen Enjun, China Forest Administration, 1 April 2003. 217 China's Office of National Coordination Committee for Climate Change (ed), China and Global Warming (Beijing: China Office of National Coordination Committee for Climate Change, State Development Planning Commission, July 2001), p. 5. 218 Inter-Government Party on Climate Change (IPCC), The Regional Impacts of Climate Change 1997, . Accessed on 19 April 2001. 219 IPCC, The Regional Impacts of Climate Change; Nielson and McElroy, 'Introduction and Overview', p. 24; Ying Aiwen, 'Impact of Global Climate Change on China's Water Resources', Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 61, 1 (2000), pp. 187-91. 220 China's Office of National Coordination Committee for Climate Change (ed), China and Global Warming, p. 6. 221 China Meteorological Administration, The Science, Influence and Countermeasures of Climate Change, p. 20.

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reaching 40-74 centimeters by 2100.222 Indeed, many of China's coastal areas will be under water if past and anticipated trends continue.223 Overall, 70 percent of the Chinese people, as well as 80 percent of their industries, agriculture sector and cities, are already 'seriously threatened' by natural disasters.224 Millions of people have died from such events, nearly one-third of government revenue is spent on fighting them, and up to 6 percent of GNP is lost as a result.225 These losses will only increase as climate changes. What comes from reports on the impacts of climate change in Asia Pacific is that many of the effects will be felt most by - and be most painful for - the developing countries of the region, including China, often because they are more vulnerable and less able to cope due to poverty and existing environmental problems and resource scarcities.

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4.3 CHINA'S DOMESTIC RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE Rapid economic growth in China has been and will be associated with rapid increases in fossil fuel use, the primary source of carbon dioxide (the chief GHG). As a developing country, China is seeking to industrialize and modernize. Both economic activity and, to an even greater extent, energy demands are currently expanding much faster than is typical of other countries. China's annual economic growth averaged 11 percent from 1978 to 1993 and is expected to continue at subsequent rates of about 8 percent annually to 2020.226 China faces a number of challenges in this respect. One of the most important is reducing the adverse environmental impacts associated with rapid economic growth in a coal-based economy. Very few countries are as dependent on coal as is China, where the annual consumption was 1.3 billion tons in the mid-1990s and where it is the source of 90 percent of the country's fossil fuel energy sources and accounts for three-quarters of commercial energy.227 China's carbon dioxide emissions reached 800 million tons in 1995, ranking it second in the world after the United States.228 If current trends continue, by 2020 China's average per capita energy consumption will match the current global average, meaning that China alone will account for almost one-third of the world's total GHG emissions between

222

Research Team of China Climate Change Country Study, China Climate Change Country Study, pp. 185-87. Wen Kegang, 'The Impacts of Climate Change and Our Adoption Policies', in Liu Jiang (ed), China's Sustainable Development Strategy Study (Beijing: Chinese Agriculture Publishing House, 2001), pp. 462-64. 224 China's Office of National Coordination Committee for Climate Change, China and Global Warming, p. 6. 225 China's Office of National Coordination Committee for Climate Change, China and Global Warming, p. 6. 226 The World Bank, 'China: Issues and Options in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Control', Energy Demand in China, Overview Report, Sub-report, No.2 (Washington DC: World Bank, 1995), . Accessed on 15 April 2003. 227 China State Economic & Trade Commission (SETC), China Energy Annual Review (Beijing: State Economic & Trade Commission, Department of Resources Conservation & Comprehensive Utilization, 1996), . Accessed on 11 October 2003. 228 Brown, Lester R., Christopher Flavin, Hilary French, Janet Abramovitz, Chris Bright, Gary Gardner, Anne McGinn, Michael Renner, David Roodman, and Linda Starke(eds), State of the World, A World Watch Institute Report on Progress Toward a Sustainable Society (New York: W.W. Norton and Company, 1997), pp. 113-26. 223

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1990 and 2020.229 To be sure, China's current per capita emissions of GHGs are low compared to the industrialized countries, but with almost 1.3 billion people its aggregate contribution to global warming is huge and growing. This prospect becomes clear when one considers the burgeoning middle class in China, whose lifestyle choices will lead to dramatic increases in per-capita energy use. China energy intensity is 1/3 of the US, 1/5 of EU, and 1/9 of Japan, however, China is seeking to build the model for resolving the conflicts between energy consumption and environmental degradation. China develops diverse energy resources, and put in place a system that supplies stable, economical and clean energy. China is working hard to develop a recycling economy so that it will garner the highest possible economic and social benefits with the lowest possible energy consumption. The Chinese government recognized some environmental problems and began addressing them as early as the 1950s, but into the 1970s it argued that, as a socialist state, it did not have environmental problems. However, by the 1980s, increasing damage to China's natural environment and adverse environmental impacts on economic development led to greater government concern. In 1982 the Chinese constitution was rewritten, pledging to 'protect the environment and natural resources by controlling pollution and its societal impact, ensure the sensible use of natural resources, and safeguard rare animals and plants'.230 The following year environmental preservation was declared one of China's basic national policies and by the end of the decade China started its first major campaign to combat pollution.231 During the 1980s the government also instituted new environmental protection laws in the areas of solid waste, noise, air and water pollution,232 and by the mid 1990s the government was becoming more serious about environmental issues, with state leaders expressing their concern.233 By the late 1990s the central government was allocating substantial – albeit grossly inadequate – funds to environmental and resource protection.234 China has persisted in relying on its domestic resources and constantly increasing the supply of domestic energy. China is not only a big energy consuming country, but also a big energy producer. Since the 1990s, China has obtained above 90% of its energy from domestic sources (the data of 2005 is 93%). The potential of its domestic energy supply is still great. From 1980 to 2001, with China‘s average GDP growth rates about 10 percent, China‘s has growth rate in energy consumption was about 5 percent. China‘s economy has managed to thrive despite the limitations in energy supply. The evidence from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory suggests that China is already more efficient than many of its counterparts in the developing world. However, this Laboratory also argued that China's energy use has grown much faster than GDP since the end of 2001, which put China's development goals and global climate change struggles in jeopardy. Premier Wen Jiabao stressed that energy use per unit of GDP must be reduced by 229

Wang Xiaodong and Kirk R. Smith, 'Near-term Health Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Reductions: -a Proposed Assessment Method and Application in Two Energy Sectors of China', . Accessed on 12 October 2003. 230 Elisa Tseng, 'The Environment and the People's Republic of China', in Dennis L. Soden and Brent S. Steel (eds), Handbook of Global Environmental Policy and Administration (Basel: Marcel Dekker, 1999), p. 383. 231 Tseng, 'The Environment and the People's Republic of China', p. 383. 232 United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), Global Environment Outlook (London: Earthscan, 1999), pp. 241-42. 233 Tseng, 'The Environment and the People's Republic of China ', p. 383. 234 UNEP, Global Environment Outlook, p. 246.

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20% from 2005 to 2010. In this year, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao called for changing the economic growth pattern by adjusting economic structure and energy mix. Under the new circumstances, the Chinese government shifts the past development principle of "fast and healthy growth" to "healthy and fast growth. China has undertaken some policies and national development strategies, and created related domestic institutions, specifically related to climate change.235 Environmental sustainability has been adopted as a key strategy guiding Chinese development. Following the 1992 Earth Summit, the Chinese government devised a national sustainable development plan based on the summit's 'Agenda 21' objectives. This plan included climate change as one priority for attention, and it served as one guide to China's national economic and social development plans for the period of 1996-2005. In addition, the government has issued a number of environmental regulations and laws, such as the Environment Protection Law (1989), the Law on the Prevention and Control of Atmospheric Pollution (1987), the Forest Law (1989) and the Energy Conservation Law (1997).236 The government has issued the Renewable Energy Law (2005). Since the eighth five-year plan (1991-1995), global climate change has been listed as a priority in plans for the state energy plan. In the eleventh five-year program, China will accelerate the pace of building a resource-efficient and environmentfriendly society, and promote the harmonization of economic development with the population, resources, and the environment. China also announced its first national action plan to respond to climate change on June 2, 2007. To specifically address the issue of climate change, in 1998 the State Council of the Chinese government created the National Coordination Committee for Climate Change (NCCCC). The committee was given responsibility for 'the coordination and formulation of policies and measures related to climate change'.237 Chaired by the State Development Planning Commission (SDPC), the NCCCC is composed of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and 13 government departments (Ministry of Foreign Affairs [MOFA], Ministry of Development and Planning, Ministry of Science and Technology, State Economic and Trade Commission, China Meteorological Administration, Ministry of Finance, State Environmental Protection Administration, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Communications, Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Construction, State Forestry Administration, and State Oceanic Administration), giving it an important coordinating function. China has also undertaken comprehensive climate change research, much of it with international assistance. Indeed, demonstrating the importance of the FCCC for China's development, since the eighth five-year plan (1991-1995), global climate change has been listed as a priority in plans for state scientific development. Numerous universities, scientific institutes and researchers have been involved in research relating to global warming. However, the environmental benefits of these laws and other actions of the central Chinese government have often been limited. Implementation of environmental laws is hindered by lack of money, corruption, the refusal of local authorities to take the laws seriously and the inability or unwillingness of higher officials to force them to do so. Beijing 235

China's Office of National Coordination Committee for Climate Change, China and Global Warming, pp. 9-13. China's Office of National Coordination Committee for Climate Change, China and Global Warming, p. 6. 237 China's Office of National Coordination Committee for Climate Change, China and Global Warming, p. 6. 236

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often has limited control over the vast bureaucracy, particularly outside Beijing, and the institutional structure of China's environmental management system is extraordinarily complex. Underlying the inability to implement environmental protections is a strong nationwide fixation on economic growth. According to one observer, even 'the government often ignores some of its environmental policies and regulations and does what it thinks is necessary for economic advancement'.238 Wealth creation in the short term almost always wins out over environmental protection.239 Where China may have had some apparent success is in its energy efficiency. While its energy use is skyrocketing – and will continue to do so short of a major economic depression – there is data suggesting that its energy use is growing at a slower rate than its economy. (However, this assertion is in dispute due to questionable government statistics and must be considered anecdotal pending more reliable data.240) Some developed country governments – notably the United States – demand that China do more to limit its GHG emissions. But this evidence suggests that China is already more efficient than some of those critics – including the United States. Having said this, should these efficiencies prove to be real, they are not motivated by a desire to limit global warming.241 Furthermore, as Thomas Schelling argues that because of technological backwardness and poverty, China has limited capacity to fight climate change, and without economic incentives China will be hard pressed to wean itself from its dependence on inefficient coal use.242

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4.3 CHINA'S INTERNATIONAL RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE How has China responded diplomatically to climate change? Broadly speaking, China's environmental diplomacy has sought to further several goals: protect Chinese sovereignty, acquire foreign aid and technical assistance, promote China's economic development,243 and promote its role as a responsible great power and leader of the developing world. China has used its dual status as a developing country (with rights to and needs for development) and its growing role as a major contributor to global environmental problems (such as GHG emissions) to acquire substantial influence in international environmental negotiations.244 In 238

Tseng, 'The Environment and the People's Republic of China', p. 390. See Paul G. Harris, 'Tradition, Consumption, and Environmental Governance in China', Environmental Values, 13, 2 (forthcoming May 2004). 240 James Dorian, 'China's Energizing Economy', Forum for Applied Research and Public Policy, 16,2 (2001), p. 101; David Street, Kejuan Jiang, Xiulian Hu, and Jonathan Sinton (eds), ' Recent Reduction in China's Green House Gases Emissions', Science, 294, 5548 (2001), p.1835; Richard F Garbaccio, Mun S Ho and Dale W Jorgenson, 'Why has the Energy-Output Ratio Fallen in China?' , The Energy Journal, 20, 3 (1999), p.63; Sara Beam, 'Booming Economy, Booming Emissions', Environment, 45,10 ( 2003), p.4. 241 Ding Yihui said, 'China takes few actions which only aim to reduce the GHG emissions except some scientific research. Moreover, China makes no systematic and comprehensive research on the influences (i.e., economic cost, natural disaster) of climate change on China till now.' Interview with Ding Yihui, former President of the IPCC, China Meteorological Administration, 3 March 2003. 242 Schelling, 'What Makes Greenhouse Sense?', p.2; See Paul G. Harris and Chihiro Udagawa, 'Defusing the Bombshell: Agenda 21 and Economic Development in China', Review of International Political Economy 11, 3 (forthcoming July 2004). 243 Elizabeth, Economy, 'China's Environmental Diplomacy', in Samuel S. Kim (ed), China and the World: Chinese Foreign Policy Faced the New Millennium (Boulder: Westview Press, 1998), p. 264. 244 Economy, 'China's Environmental Diplomacy', p.265. 239

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international environmental deliberations of all kinds, it has consistently sought 'new and additional' funds from developed countries in return for its support for, or acquiescence to, environmental agreements. These efforts have paid off; China is the largest recipient of environmental aid from the World Bank and receives substantial amounts of environmental aid from other international funding agencies. Indeed, the vast majority of its environmental budget comes from abroad.245 China is also receiving environmental technologies, such as those offered in the context of the FCCC's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), which funds climate change-related projects in developing countries.246 China has been intimately involved in international deliberations on global warming and resulting climate change. Like other participants in the climate change negotiations, China wants to protect its interests and promote development while also joining international efforts to address this problem. However, it has opposed every effort to require GHG limits by developing countries - even those calling for voluntary commitments to restrict future emissions increases.247 Instead, China has joined with other developing countries in demanding that developed countries reduce their GHG emissions first and provide assistance to developing countries to help them cope with climate change and to implement sustainable development. It has usually resisted any links between financial and technical assistance from developed countries in the context of the climate change regime. Instead, it has demanded transfers of funds on non-commercial and preferential terms, and has rejected most of the market-based international mechanisms for emissions reductions advocated by developed countries and their industries.248 China has made some contributions to the FCCC negotiations, notably when doing so would help codify requirements that developed countries help developing countries in the context of climate change. It proposed a resolution on technology transfer, which was adopted by the first conference of the parties (COP) held in Berlin in 1995. During COP2, China proposed that developed countries list in their national communications measures they were undertaking to implement technology transfer to developing countries. This proposal was adopted. According to one observer, 'only when outsiders (e.g., the GEF [Global Environment Facility]) have paid the incremental costs has China been willing to implement global warming projects'.249 Once it was established that developing countries would not be required to take on any obligatory commitments under the FCCC, China embraced the Kyoto Protocol and efforts to implement it. The Chinese themselves have identified three stages in China's official participation in the conferences of the parties to the FCCC.250 During the first stage, from about 1990 to mid1992, China sought to formulate a homegrown set of policies toward the climate change convention. Two policies came out of this process: (1) the principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities', meaning that China would share responsibilities in information 245

Economy, 'China's Environmental Diplomacy', p.278. The Japan Environmental Council, Shunichi Teranishi, and Takehisa Awaji, The State of the Environment in Asia 1999/2000, p.106. 247 Paul G. Harris, 'Climate Change and Foreign Policy: An Introduction', in Paul G. Harris (ed), Climate Change and American Foreign Policy (New York: St. Martin's Press, 2000), p.15. 248 Bayer J Linnerooth, 'Climate Change and Multiple Views of Fairness', in Ference L. Toth (ed), Fair Weather? Equity Concerns in Climate Change (London: Earthscan, 1999), p.59. 249 David Victor, 'The Regulation of Greenhouse Gases: Does Fairness Matter?', in Toth, Fair Weather? Equity Concerns in Climate Change, p.203. 250 Interviews with Zhou Hailing, Huang Jing, Duan Liping, China Ministry of Science and Technology,15- 22 April 2003; Gao Guang Sheng and Li Liyan, China Committee of Planning and Reform, 1-3 March April 2003. 246

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communication and scientific research while not incurring any economic burdens or requirements that it reduce its energy use, and (2) strengthening of China's scientific and technological research in the climate change field. In this early phase of the FCCC negotiations, China took a relatively low-profile position compared to many other countries.251 The second stage of China's participation in the climate change negotiations lasted from mid-1992 to late-1997. At the Rio Earth Summit in June 1992, then Premier Li Peng noted that GHG emissions were threatening the national security of many countries and regions, and put his signature to the FCCC. From that date, the FCCC took on a prominent role in China's diplomacy, and China pledged to uphold the convention.252 The greatest subsequent challenges for China in the conferences of the parties to the FCCC were the Kyoto Protocol and the so-called flexible mechanisms for its implementation, such as the CDM, joint implementation (JI, whereby polluters could offset their emissions with projects in other countries) and international emissions trading (IET).253 China lagged far behind the developed countries in the fields of climate science and economics, and Chinese officials had not yet arrived at a consensus on the flexible mechanisms.254 Some of these officials called the mechanisms tools of 'environmental imperialism'.255 Elizabeth Economy argues that during this stage of China's climate change diplomacy, China remained committed to only the general framework convention commitments for the signatories, especially with regard to curtailing emissions of the principal greenhouse gas. China held that any action that did not concurrently advance economic growth would have to be funded by the international community. Moreover, Chinese officials rallied the developing states behind their position in an attempt – in large part successful – to establish a united front for bargaining with the advanced industrialized countries.256 The third stage of China's climate change diplomacy ranged from late 1997 – when the parties to the FCCC agreed to the Kyoto protocol - to the present. During this period, Chinese diplomacy has focused on two issues: (1) how to accept the developed countries' international environmental trading mechanisms and (2) preventing developing countries from being forced to assume concrete responsibilities for GHG emissions reductions. China's strategy was – and remains – to avoid requirements that developing countries reduce their GHG emissions. Chen Yaobang, head of China's diplomatic delegations to climate related conferences, said at the Kyoto COP3 in 1997 that China adamantly opposed any commitment to reduce its GHG emissions before it becomes a 'middle-income' country. He also rejected emissions-trading and joint-implementation schemes, insisting that these approaches were 251

Lester Ross, 'China and Environmental Protection', in Elizabeth Economy and Michel Okesenberg (eds), China Joins the World: Progress and Prospects (New York: Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1997), p.304. See China State Council (ed), China's Agenda 21-White Paper on China's Population, Environment, and Development in the 21st Century (Beijing: Environmental Science Press, 1994), p.160. 253 Richard Cooper, 'Toward a Real Global Warming Treaty', Foreign Affairs, 77, 2 (1998), pp. 66-80. 254 See China Ministry of Science & Technology (ed), the Background Materials for Climate Change, 1998, pp.3 -10, (on file with authors). 255 Liu Jiang, ' Proposal on the Working Plan for China National Coordination Committee for Climate', a speech presented in the second conference of China National Coordination Committee for Climate, Beijing, China (2930, June 1999) (on file with authors). 256 Elizabeth Economy, 'Chinese Policy-making and Global Climate Change', in Miranda A. Schreurs and Elizabeth Economy (eds), The internationalization of Environmental Protection (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1997), p.20. 252

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unacceptable because they would allow developed countries to shirk their responsibilities for emissions reductions at home while 'disregarding the living environment of people in other countries'.257 Subsequently, at COP5 in 1999, the Chinese delegation, headed by Liu Jiang, reiterated the basic positions that China had expounded at COP3. On the issue of Chinese commitment to limiting greenhouse gas emissions, Liu said, 'it is impossible for the Chinese government to undertake any obligation of GHG emissions reduction before China attains the level of a medium-developed country'.258 He said that China would instead 'continue striving to abate the growth of GHG emissions in line with her own sustainable development strategy, and will continue actively promoting and participating in international cooperation'.259 In contrast to the previous stage of its diplomacy, China did not raise objections to the flexibility mechanisms. This reflected a very slow transformation in its attitude toward, and perception and knowledge of, the flexible mechanisms from outright opposition to gradual if muted acceptance. This rather slow acceptance was a consequence of China having very few experts to study these mechanisms, limiting its understanding of them. According to one Chinese assessment of the situation, 'the flexible mechanisms are very complicated, and we know little about them. We should take the 'no voice' [Bu Biao Tai] policy in this issue'.260 Some officials have argued that China opposes CDM projects in China to avoid international monitoring of its energy industry.261 After 2000, with additional development of Chinese knowledge regarding the flexible mechanisms, China began to show greater interests in some small-scale (i.e., not country-wide) CDM projects using assistance from the Asian Development Bank and other institutions. In ongoing climate change negotiations, China continues to oppose other mechanisms, such as JI and IET. China has sometimes used a form of passive resistance during climate change negotiations, articulating a policy of 'no response' to some international events (e.g., the Bush administration's rejection of the Kyoto Protocol). In 2000, China put forward a 'no regrets' policy for the FCCC negotiations (meaning that it will share some concrete responsibilities to reduce the GHG emissions provided they do not adversely affect its economic development), began to accept the international environmental trading mechanism, and implemented CDMrelated projects in Gansu and Shanxi Province, using financial assistance from the Asian Development Bank. With assistance from the United States, China also finished its national report on climate change, one of the few commitments required of developing countries by the FCCC.262 There are five important aspects for China‘s position from COP8 to COP12: "1. The UN Framework Convention on climate change provides a fundamental and effective framework for international cooperation in response to climate change. 257

'Heads of Chinese Delegation Expounds Stance on Global Climate Change at COP3', People's Daily (December 9, 1997), < http://www.ccchina.gov.cn/index1.htm >. Accessed on 12 April, 2003 258 Liu Jiang, 'Presentation in the Eighth Conference of Parties COP8, India', New Delhi, India (23 October to 1 November 2002), . Accessed on 12 April 2003. 259 Liu Jiang, 'Presentation in the Eighth Conference of Parties COP8, India'. 260 Interviews with Zhao Jun and Zhang Maoming, China Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 3-6 March 2003; Li Rui, China Ministry of Finance, 23 March 2003. 261 Interviews with Huang Jing and Zhou Hailin, China Ministry of Science and Technology, 15st-22th, April, 2003. 262 The project of China Climate Change Country Study by Research Team of China Climate Change Country Study was funded by the U.S. Government.

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Compliance with the principles enshrined in the Convention, particularly the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities is of great significance. 2. Countermeasures against climate change should be taken under the framework of sustainable development. 3. Great importance should be attached to the role of technology in the combat against climate change. 4. Mitigation of and adaptation to climate change should be given equal consideration. 5. The international community should focus on taking concrete actions against climate change. Win-win international cooperation in this regard, like CDM, should be encouraged."263 In 2007 at the APEC Summit, Chinese President Hu Jintao put forward four proposals for tackling climate change:

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“First, cooperation is indispensable to global efforts to tackle climate change. Second, efforts are needed to pursue sustainable development, as climate change is ultimately a development issue and it can only be addressed in the course of sustainable development. Third, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change should be upheld as the core mechanism for addressing climate change. The Convention and its Kyoto Protocol constitute the legal basis of international cooperation on climate change and are the most authoritative, universal and comprehensive international framework for the issue. Fourth, efforts should be made to promote scientific and technological innovation, as science and technology are important means for tackling climate change.‖264 However, despite pressure from the United States, Europe and some other countries to reduce GHG emissions, China has to date refused to take on concrete commitments to do so. China expects the developed, wealthy countries of the world to substantially reduce their emissions before China and other developing countries are expected to do so, in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibility adopted at the 1995 Berlin conference of the parties.

4.4 EXPLANATIONS FOR CHINA'S RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE Economy argues that several principles have guided Chinese environmental foreign policy in this area: sovereignty, the primacy of economic development, and the historic responsibility of the developed countries.265 We can add the important long-term commitment 263

Office of China National Coordination Committee on Climate Change,"Statement by Mr.Jiang Weixin at the Joint High-level Segment of COP12","Statement by H. E. Mr. Liu Jiang, head of the Chinese Delegation at the Sixth Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC",,acessed on OCT. 3, 2007. 264 China Ministry of Foreign Affairs,. 265 Elizabeth Economy, 'The impact of International Regimes on Chinese Foreign Policy-Making: Broadening Perspectives and Politics…but only to a Point', in David M. Lampton (ed), The making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform (California: Stanford University Press, 2001), pp. 230-53.

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of China to be a leader of developing countries on the world stage, including within the context of international environmental cooperation. Zhang Zhihong argues that the official Chinese position on climate change has revolved around four themes:

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(1) China is a victim of global climate change; (2) developed countries are the principal emitters of GHG emissions and therefore should bear the primary responsibility in addressing the climate change problem; (3) in light of their current and historical responsibilities and much greater capabilities to act, developed countries should undertake transfers of advanced, environmentally friendly technologies and provide financial assistance to developing countries in combating climate change while meeting the needs of sustainable development; and (4) China's overriding priority is poverty eradication and economic development'.266 Reiterating and expanding on themes suggested by Economy and Zhang, we can emphasize several forces that have shaped much of China's climate change diplomacy. First, China has an overwhelming desire to protect its sovereignty, including avoiding the 'humiliation' of being forced to comply with standards set by outsiders. In 1992, Chinese Premier Li Peng explained China's view succinctly: 'International cooperation should be strengthened on the basis of respecting national sovereignty'.267 There are four aspects to the Chinese notion of 'environmental sovereignty'268: (1) China should enjoy full use of its own natural resources according to the United Nations' 1974 Charter of Economic Rights and Responsibilities. (2) China should be able to develop and utilize its natural resource according to its own priorities and according to the 1972 declaration of United Nations Conference on the Human Environment. (3) China will establish its environmental policies and laws according to the principle of non-intervention. (4) Other countries and international institutions should respect China's sovereignty with regard to global common issues, namely climate change. In short, much like other countries, while China has joined in international collective action to deal with climate change, it insists on the right to enjoy, develop, utilize and protect its own natural resources by itself. Second, China's climate change policies, both domestic and international, are motivated by priorities of economic stability and growth. Global warming has been intimately linked with efforts to modernize the economy, as well as the energy strategy employed to fuel that modernization. China, like other countries, fears that policies for reducing GHG emissions will adversely affect economic growth. According to some Chinese experts, the economic cost of significantly reducing China's GHG emissions through alterations in the energy industry, introducing clean energy technologies and the like could cost the equivalent of hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars.269 For example, coal-based energy represents 60-70 percent of China's energy structure. If China were to change to an oil-based or natural gas266

Zhang Zhihong, 'The Forces behind China's Climate Change Policy: Interests, Sovereignty, and Prestige', in Harris, Global Warming and East Asia, pp.66-85. 267 Administration Center for Chinese Agenda 21, the Documents of the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro (Beijing: Environmental Science, 1992), pp.1-10. 268 Administration Center for Chinese Agenda 21, the Documents of the UN Conference on Environment and Development, pp.1-10. 269 Interview with Wang Yongqing, head of the Nuclear Energy Institute, Tsinghua University, 12 December 2002; interview with Ding Yihui, former president of IPCC.

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based energy structure, billions of dollars would be needed.270 China also tries to seek international technical assistance and loans in order to garner economic benefits, such as to improve energy efficiency without much domestic cost. But this is done in accordance with the no regrets principle of acting in ways that benefit China regardless of the threat of global warming. Thus China also actively seeks investment from the international community for projects that assist in slowing climate change. But economic growth remains China's top priority. Third, following the notion of common but differentiated responsibility, China believes very strongly that it ought not be forced to take on burdens associated with climate change while it remains relatively poor and – just as importantly – until the developed countries take concrete action of their own. Chinese officials, like those in many other developing countries (and some developed ones) believe that the industrialized, wealthy countries of the world bear responsibility for global warming because of their historic emissions of greenhouse gases.271 Furthermore, their per capita emissions remain far above those of China, meaning that their responsibility continues. Any effort to persuade China to reduce its GHG emissions or otherwise take on concrete burdens to limit global warming run up against this very strongly held sentiment. Fourth, following the previous point, it is important to realize that China takes its role as a leader and representative of the developing world very seriously, including in the context of the climate change negotiations. During the climate change deliberations, it has worked within a negotiating block referred to officially as the 'Group of 77 plus China'. China tries to exert its influence within this block, as it does in the broader negotiations. In this context, China has adopted terms like 'environmental colonialism' and 'sovereignty intervention' to help foster an alliance among developing countries within the FCCC and related international negotiations.272 To be sure, China will act to promote its own interests first and foremost, even if they contradict this leadership role. But it takes this position seriously and will usually seek to promote policies that reaffirm it. These and, of course, other forces operate in the context of China's policymaking institutions. China's sometimes-changing positions in the climate change negotiations show that internal politics, a complex foreign policy-making apparatus, and international affairs can combine to shape its environmental diplomacy. According to Abram Chayes and Charlotte Kim, internal politics and bureaucratic maneuvering among a score of government agencies affected China's diplomacy.273 The most important actors in China's environmental diplomacy have usually been the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the State Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA), the State Development Planning Commission, and the State Science and Technology Commission (SSTC). MOFA has generally viewed environmental issues from the perspective of fairness, seeing industrialized countries as responsible for solving problems and helping China and other developing countries to implement sustainable development. Other agencies view environmental problems in terms of their harm to the Chinese people and

270

Interviews with Wang Yongqing and Ding Yihui. See Paul G. Harris, International Equity and Global Environmental Politics (Aldershot: Ashgate, 2001). 272 Liu Jiang, 'Proposal on the Working Plan for China National Coordination Committee for Climate'. 273 Abram Chayes and Charlotte Kim, 'China and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change', in Michael B. McElroy, Chris P. Nielsen , and Peter Lydon, Energizing China, p.528. 271

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China's developmental prospects.274 The increasing salience of environmental issues in international relations has strengthened environmentally proactive bureaucrats and technocrats,275 as well as government-approved think tanks, such as the Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development. Among the agencies involved in China's foreign policy on climate change, a few served as key 'window agents' (zhu guan danwei or chuang kou danwei). The agency most responsible for coordinating China's climate change negotiations is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which coordinates different preferences or interests among different bureaucracies, while the Ministry of Finance distributes the information on international climate change funds to different bureaucracies and collects their proposals.276 In early climate change negotiations, MOFA and the SDPC eventually took control of policy, although not without other agencies getting involved at times, notably SSTC, SEPA, and the China Meteorological Administration, which influenced scientific understanding on the issue. Thus, China's position has been 'susceptible to domination by foreign policy and state planning officials'.277 However, it became clear to senior policymakers that joining the Kyoto Protocol could be in China's economic, environmental and diplomatic interests. The Clean Development Mechanism would provide new funds to aid economic development, domestic pollution would be mitigated by the resulting new technologies, and announcing accession to the Kyoto Protocol (which was done at the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development) would show the world that China was leading developing countries in addressing an important global issue.

274

Economy, 'China's Environmental Diplomacy', pp.270-71. Economy, 'China's Environmental Diplomacy', pp.265. 276 Interview with Li Rui. 277 Chayes and Kim, 'China and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change', p. 529. 275

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Chapter 5

GREEN CHALLENGES FOR CHINA AND THE US ENVIRONMENTAL RELATIONS The trend of global environmental threats over China and the US is approximately consistent with that of the globe. China and the U.S. are the world's largest and most influential countries, and both are experiencing widespread and acute environmental problems with severe local, national, and regional consequences. In other words, China and the U.S. are central to regional and global environmental protection efforts. China and the U.S. share the same global environment and interests in preserving it for this and future generations. International environmental diplomacy has become more salient as environmental issues have gained importance in international relations in general.

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5.1 THE RISING OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICS AND SECURITY Nowadays, environmental issues, mainly global warming, ozone layer depletion, acid rain, air and water pollution, desertification, and the loss of biodiversity have received much attention from the entire human race. The global environment has changed beyond recognition，and it poses a great challenge to both practitioners and scholars all over the world. Moreover, environmental issues have moved from the margin to the center of security policies, particularly since the end of the Cold War. On one hand, environmental problems have been recognized as an important source of threats to human survival over the last several decades. The human impact on the environment in a modern society is ten to one hundred times greater than it was in an agrarian society. On the other hand, it is now universally acknowledged that international environmental cooperation is necessary to protect the environment. Environmental cooperation is a political and social problem as well as an economic one. It involves various sectors of the national economy and so has an important bearing on sustainable economic and social development of all nations. The need for access to natural resources has increased and more people make greater demands upon them. The loss of balance between human activities and preservation of nature in many parts of the world are attributed to a growth-oriented economic model. Due to the fact that environmental degradation can deepen social divisions and lead to violent conflicts, the environment is now considered to be a significant security issue.

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Environmental security is affected by a variety of activities made at different levels of a social system. Trans-boundary air pollution and insufficient water resources can threaten humans. Thus, in a broad notion of national security, environmental issues have also been linked to the causes of violent conflicts, which requires outside military intervention. However, for a long time, the traditional focus of national security and international conflicts has had little in common with either environmental problems or solutions. To traditional security, the security notion is still fundamentally linked to the state system, and they refuse to accept environmental degradation as a national security threat. However, now, environmental concerns have been brought into security studies along with changes in the perception of security in policy-making circle. Environmental problems have been recognized as an important source of threats to human survival over the last several decades.

5.2 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY IN CHINA AND THE US

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5.2.1 China’s Environmental Policy While it has contributed to global economic growth, China has simultaneously taken on the unenviable role of being the potential largest polluter in the World. Environmental protection has caught more and more attention among Chinese leaders since the 1980s. In 1992, at the Rio Summit, Chinese former Premier Li Peng noted that environmental challenges (e.g., global warming, ozone layer depletion) were threatening the national security of the relevant countries and regions and signed the Agenda 21 and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Since then, environmental foreign policy has been implicated in the concerns and agenda setting of Chinese national interest and foreign policy. In the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (also called Earth Summit), held in Johannesburg, South Africa, China former Premier Zhu Rongji put emphasis on harmony between economic development and resource and environmental protection, and adherance to the road to human-oriented development. In this congress, China also declared it has ratified the Kyoto protocol. Currently, China‘s participation in international environmental institutions and processes has increased noticeably. It has signed on to a wide range of international environmental treaties and declarations, and has developed extensive linkages with scientific and environmental policy communities around the world. It 278 also hosted a variety of international conferences and workshops on the environment. The guiding principles of China‘s formal environmental diplomacy include: ―(1) Environment and development should be integrated, but environmental protection should not be achieved at the expense of the economy. Environmental protection can only be effective when development has been attained. (2) From a historical perspective, the developed countries are responsible for global environmental degradation and the current problems with greenhouse gas emissions. China should not talk about responsibility. (3) Developed 278

Alastair Iain Johnson, ― China and International Environmental Institutions: A Decision Rule Analysis.‖in Michael B. McElroy, Chris P. Nielsen and Peter Lydon eds., Energizing China，Reconciling Environmental Protection and Economic Growth (Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Committee on Environment, 1998), p. 555.

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countries should provide resources for implementation of agreements or declarations signed. This financial resource should not be considered assistance but compensation from the developed countries. (4) Developed countries should find suitable mechanisms to develop sustainable programs. In order to accommodate national intellectual property rights, the governments of the developed countries should buy the technology from the companies and sell it to developing nations at below market prices. (5) The sovereignty of natural resources rights must be respected. No country can interfere with the decisions of another with regard to the use of the natural resources.‖ 279 China faces the crucial need to protect the national interests and promote development while joining the environmental cooperation. There is a dilemma for China. During the international cooperation, when China seeks individual interest, in the short run, that will serve an immediate self-interest (economic development), but in the long run, China will experience moral or reputation damage and lose environmental loans and technology transfers. When China seeks collective interests for international environmental protection, in the short run, this may provide a basis for possible future collaboration in reducing environmental disasters, in the long run, it serves long-term common interest of the human race. The dilemma will reflect two trends in China‘s foreign policy on international environmental cooperation. One is nationalistic trend and the other is the internationalism trend. The nationalistic trend on environmental issues may undermine global endeavors; the internationalism trend can help China contribute more to the global environment.

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5.2.2 The US Environmental Policy The U.S. has been environmentally proactive in most areas of environmental protection, particular; it has been seeking an international reputation and an international global role. According to the U.S. State Department, the U.S. government focuses its regional and bilateral environmental diplomacy on five key environmental challenges that affect most, if not all, areas of the world: water resources, air quality, energy resources, land use, and urban and industrial growth.280 The U.S. also integrates environmental issues into its diplomacy in two new ways: by establishing regional environmental hubs in key embassies to work on trans-boundary solutions to regional environmental problems, and by raising the profile of environmental issues in many of our bilateral relationships. 281

279

Elizabeth Economy, "China's Environmental Diplomacy", in Samuel Kim (ed.), China and the World: Chinese Foreign Policy faces the New Millennium (Boulder: Westview Press, 1998) (Fourth edition), pp. 271-272. 280 Environmental Diplomacy: Environment and US Foreign Policy (State Department, January 20 2001). Retrieved from the World Wide Web:

281 Environmental Diplomacy: Environment and US Foreign Policy (State Department, January 20 2001). Retrieved from the World Wide Web:

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5.3 ENVIRONMENTAL COOPERATION BETWEEN CHINA AND THE U.S.

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In Clinton Administration, China-U.S. environmental relations went very well. According to Former President Clinton, ―China and the United States share the same global environment, an interests in preserving it for this and future generations.‖282 Former Vice president Al Gore showed great interests in China-US environmental cooperation, and he announced an initiative that moved both countries toward greater cooperation in energy and environment with China for reaching common ground.283 Al Gore also argued, ―China and the U.S. protect the shared environment. The U.S. agreed to a joint initiative that will help china reduces air pollution and increase clean energy production.‖284 During Clinton Administration, China and U.S. had signed many statements and declarations to seek in-depth cooperation on a range of efforts to protect the environment and promote sustainable development, including international efforts to combat global climate change. However, after 2001, Bush Administration has put low priorities in environmental issues of Sino-US relations. In international struggles against global warming, the U.S. State Department argues, ―China's demand for energy will triple by 2010. It could surpass the US as the largest consumer of energy by 2020. China's reliance on coal for its energy needs results in high levels of sulfur emissions which cause acid rain in China and in other countries in the region. ‖ 285The U.S. is working with China through a bilateral forum launched by top government leader. Through this forum, which will address a wide range of environmental issues, the State Department and other U.S. agencies are working to address the social, economic, and environmental challenges posed by China's energy needs, and to find opportunities to apply new U.S. technology in addressing these critical problems. Also, the U.S. is helping China inventory its emissions of greenhouse gases and upgrade its inefficient pulverized coal power to a more economic and environmentally sound system.

5.4 THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN CHINA AND THE US IN COMBATING GREEN CHALLENGES Firstly, China sides with the developing countries, and represents the interests of the third world in international environmental negotiations. However, the U.S. acts as the leader in developed countries. China tries to act as a leader and to be representative of developing countries in the international environmental cooperation negotiation. ―Group of 77 plus 282

―Clinton on US-China Relations‖ (State Department, June 11 1998). Retrieved from the World Wide Web:

283 ―Gore on US-China Energy/ Environment Cooperation‖ (State Department, October 29 1997). Retrieved from the World Wide Web: http://www.state.gov/www/regions/eap/971029_gore_china.html 284 ―Cliton and Chinese Pres. Jiang Press Conference‖ (State Department, October 29 1997). Retrieved from the World Wide Web: http://www.state.gov/www/regions/eap/971029_cliton_china2.html 285 Environmental Diplomacy, Environment and US Foreign Policy (State Department, January 20 2001). Retrieved from the World Wide Web:

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China‖ is the main scheme, by which China tries to exert its influence in climate change regimes. China created terms like ―environmental colonialism‖ and ―sovereignty intervention‖ to combat against the US and protect the developing countries‘ ―common but differential responsibilities‖ in international environmental cooperation. Second, due to differences between China and the U.S. in their economic development levels as well as their political objectives, there is a serious divergence of opinion between them on the responsibilities in international environmental cooperation. China is deeply dissatisfied with the U.S. because it refuses to pay necessary regard to China‘s economic and technological backwardness and urge China to share the same environmental standards and responsibilities. Moreover, China criticizes the U.S. for still falling short of that goal that international community requires, contributing less than 0.2 per cent of its GDP to development assistance. The U.S. argues that China should take more responsibilities, because the fastest growth in trans-boundary pollution in recent years has been in China. Thirdly, there are some conflicts between China and the U.S. in international struggles against global warming. As the biggest developing country, China is confronted by both a huge challenge and a large risk in environmental cooperation with the U.S. on global warming. Today, the threat of climate change has become a very serious environmental security issue. Rapid economic growth in China has been and will be associated with rapid increases in fossil fuel use, the primary source of greenhouse gas emissions. As a developing country, China is seeking to industrialize and modernize. Chinese importance to the world in GHG emissions increase as its share of the GDP, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions increase dramatically. The U.S. urges China to assume the concrete responsibility of reducing GHG emissions as early as it can, if not, the rapid increase of GHG emission in China will counterbalance the endeavors of international cooperation for reducing GHG. Thus, the Bush administration argues that the Kyoto Protocol is unfair to the United States and to other industrialized nations because it exempts 80 percent of the world from compliance particularly China. China argues that the US is home to 4% of the world‘s population but produces 25% of its GHG (green house gas). So the US should share the concrete responsibilities first. Finally, China has become a potential great power due to its national power and comparative development. The U.S. wonders if the rising China will pose a ―threat‖ to it. The US manages to paint an ugly picture of China with some pictures showing China‘s huge trans-boundary pollution and its contribution to global warming.

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Chapter 6

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SECURITY CHALLENGES OF GLOBAL WARMING AND IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA AND EU Global warming is, in itself, a serious threat to human security because it can lead to environmental degradation/scarcity, particularly in water resources, and will be both the cause and the sequence of traditional conflicts. The latest Fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that human activities are adding Greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere, and that this is having a discernible impact by increasing global temperatures. The preponderance of evidence on global warming and climate change is very clear: climate change presents China and the EU with major security challenges. They will not be immune to these changes, and in most cases they will be among the worst affected due to their vulnerable geographies and economies. For a while, scholars used the relationship between energy and the environment in China as a strong case to argue the negative effects of China‘s growth route for environment protection. However, a recent dramatic shift in China‘s energy policy and attitudes toward the Kyoto Protocol came as a shock. As the potential largest polluter in the world, China should and must work together with other world nations in the battle against global warming. As the world's largest regional power, the EU is central to regional and global efforts for global warming particularly when the Bush administration rejected the Kyoto protocol. The EU leadership was evident in its preemptive action to limit emissions of GHGs. EU climate policy not only saved the Kyoto protocol for the 2008-2012 GHGs reduction arrangement, but also created an environment in which rich countries‘ industries had an economic incentive to transfer clean energy technology to the developing world through the global carbon market. The EU is working with China through bilateral and multilateral approaches to resolve the climate crisis, which covers a wide range from inventoring its emissions of greenhouse gases, upgrading its inefficient pulverized coal power to a more economic and environmentally sound system, and coordinating a climate negotiation position. With the above considerations in mind, in this chapter, I look at some of the consequences of climate change faced by the Asia-Pacific area and particularly China. Then, I describe China and EU climate policy separately. Finally, I discuss some of the implications of China-EU relations for global collective struggles against global warming.

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6.1. SECURITY CHALLENGES OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN ASIA-PACIFIC AND EUROPE

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In 2007, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report286 concluded that billions of people could face shortages of food and water and an increased risk of flooding as a result. Nearly all regions, European, African, Asian and American, are expected to be negatively affected by some future impacts of climate change and these will pose challenges to many economic sectors.287 The previous IPCC report argued that Asia is potentially more susceptible to climate change than are some other regions of the world.288 It concludes that the developing countries of Asia are highly vulnerable, and their adaptability is low. Floods, forest fires, cyclones, droughts and other extreme events have increased in temperate and tropical Asia. While agricultural productivity could increase in northern parts of Asia, food security would suffer in arid, tropical and temperate Asia due to reduced agricultural and aquaculture productivity from warmer water, sea-level rise, floods, droughts and cyclones. Water availability may decrease in arid and semi-arid Asia and possibly increase in northern Asia and increased incidence of vector-borne diseases and heat-stress will threaten human health. Temperate and tropical Asia should anticipate increased rainfall and floods. Rising sea level and more intense storms could 'displace tens of millions of people in low-lying coastal areas of temperate and tropical Asia'.289 Some parts of Asia will see adverse climate change effects on transport, increased demand for energy, and adverse impacts on tourism. Land-use and land-cover changes will threaten biodiversity, and sea-level rise will adversely impact coral reefs and mangrove areas that are important for fisheries. Climate change will likely cause - and may be causing already - many adverse impacts in China.290 China may see greater weather extremes, including droughts in the north and floods in the south, and heat stroke and death will increase, as may occurrences of malaria, dengue fever and other diseases.291 Hotter weather will increase heat-related mortality, as indicated by historical studies from China showing a

286

―Many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes. It is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems with observational evidence from all continents and most oceans showing temperature rises. Climate changes in many physical and biological systems are linked to anthropogenic warming, ‖UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, resource: Maya Jackson Randall,"UN Report Proves Climate Change Cap Makes Economic Sense", DOW JONES NEWSWIRES. May 8, 2007. 287 "IPCC warns climate affects all", Nuclear Engineering International, May 22, 2007. 288 IPCC Working Group II, Summary for Policymakers, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Geneva: IPCC Working Group II, 19 February draft).The report does not distinguish Asia Pacific. Findings are for Asia generally except where specified; see also IPCC 1997. 289 IPCC Working Group II, Summary for Policymakers, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, p. 16. 290 Yun Li and Shuzo Nishioka, 'Global Warming Impacts on China', in Center for Energy Environment and Climate Change Energy Research Institute (ed), Proceeding of Climate Change Policy Assessment 2002 (Beijing: China Energy Research Institute, Center for Energy, Environment and Climate Change, Jan. 2002), p. 348. 291 Chris P. Nielsen and Michael B. McElroy, 'Introduction and overview', in Michael B. McElroy, Chris P. Nielsen and Peter Lydon (eds), Energizing China: Reconciling Environmental Protection and Economic Growth (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1998), pp. 24-25.

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strong correlation between peak summer temperatures and death rates.292 Among other prominent impacts are those to agriculture, forests, water resources, and impacts arising from rising seas.293 According to the IPCC report, adaptive capacity for global warming is generally high in Europe for human systems; southern Europe and the European Arctic are more vulnerable than other parts of Europe. 294 Summer runoff, water availability, and soil moisture are likely to decrease southern Europe, and would widen the difference between the north and droughtprone south; increases are likely in water in the north and south. Half of the alpine glaciers and large permafrost areas could disappear by the end of this century. 295 River flood hazard will increase across much of Europe. In coastal areas, the risk of flooding, erosion, and wetland loss will increase substantially with implications for human settlement, industry, tourism, agriculture, and coastal natural habits. There will be some broadly positive effects on agriculture in northern Europe; productivity will decrease in southern and Eastern Europe. Upward and northward shift of biotic zones will take place. Loss of important habitats would threaten some species. Higher temperature and heat waves may change traditional summer tourist destinations, and less reliable snow conditions may adversely impact water tourism.296

6.2. EU AND CLIMATE CHANGE

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The EU is second only to the United States in GDP and in the volume of GHG emissions, and speaks with a common voice at Conferences of Parties to the UNFCCC like Berlin, Bonn or Marrakech, as a strong negotiation bloc. How has the EU responded diplomatically to climate change? Broadly speaking, the EU acts as the pusher and leader both in domestic and international action against global warming from three levels: the member states level, the EU level, and the international level.

6.2.1 The Member State Level At the member state level, the major EU GHG emitters are Germany (28%), the UK (18%), France (15%), Italy (13%), and Spain (7%)297. Germany and the UK are two very

292

World Bank, The World Bank and Climate Change: East Asia. World Bank Group, . Accessed on October 10 2003. 293 Research Team of China Climate Change Country Study (ed), China Climate change country study (Beijing: Tsinghua University Press, 1999), pp. 107-201. 294 "IPCC warns climate affects all", Nuclear Engineering International, May 22, 2007. 295 Stephen H. Schneider, Armin Rosencranz, John O. Niles(eds), Climate change policy : a survey ,(Washington, D.C. : Island Press, c2002),pp.37-39. 296 IPCC Working Group II, Summary for Policymakers, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, p. 12. 297 J E Cox and Carlos R Miro, ‗Europe's approach to climate change‘, ASHRAE Journal; Dec Volume 42(2000), Issue. 12, pp. 16-17.

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important member states for the EU climate change policy298. Since climate change came to the fore of the international political landscape in the early 1990s, Germany and the UK has been extremely active and strongly committed to GHG emissions reductions. ―Germany and the UK are the leading emitters accounting for 46% of the EU‘s total GHG emissions. The UK supports emissions trading to reduce the GHG emissions. But Germany believes that climate protection policy must be based on domestic emissions reductions, and it advocates emissions and energy consumption taxes as well as improved energy efficiency.299 In Gleneagles (2005) and Heiligendamm (2007), the UK and Germany pushed the G8 and G8+5 summit to hold high priorities in climate change issues. The UK government insisted that the United Nation Security Council (UNSC) should regard climate change as a critical security challengeand put it in the policy agenda, and its concept paper "relationship between energy, security and climate‖ was proposed on 17 April 2007 for discussion.

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6.2.2 The EU level At the EU level, it has taken many measures among the member states themselves to reduce GHG emissions according to their promise in the UNFCCC and Kyoto protocol. There are four major elements of EU‘s domestic climate policy: ―1. a regulatory approach, 2. fiscal measures, 3. burden sharing among member states, 4. the scope for complementary action at the national level‖300. Since the sixth Environmental Action Programme, the climate change issue has been a great concern. In order to strengthen the collective action to reduce GHG emissions of the EU level, the EU also set up the European Climate Change Programme in 2000, which focuses on domestic measures like transport, industry, research and agriculture and on the issue of emissions trading within the EU.301 There were some measures to address global warming in 1992 by the EU: ―1. a framework directive on energy efficiency within the SAVE programme, 2. a decision on renewable energies- ALTENER programme, 3. a directive on combined carbon and energy tax, energy conservation, a monitoring mechanism for GHG emissions‖ 302. According to the EU National Communications to the UNFCCC: “The European Commission has proposed in particular: (1) To reduce greenhouse gas emissions beyond the Kyoto commitments, by 1% of their 1990 levels every year until 2020; (2) To set more ambitious environmental targets for energy taxation, such as automatically indexing taxes at least to the level of inflation; (3) To phase out all subsidies for fossil fuel 298

Beuermann, Christiane and Jill Jager, "Climate Change Politics in Germany: How Long will any double dividend last?" in Tim O'Riordan and Jill Jager (eds.), Politics of Climate Change: A European Perspective(Routledge, London,1998), pp. 186-227. 299 David Leonard Downie and Pamela Chasek (1998), "European Union Views on International Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading", available at . Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia International Affairs Online, May 1998. 300 Nigel Haigh, ― Climate Change Policies and Politics in the European Community‖, in Tim O'Riordan and Jill Jager(eds), Politics of climate change : a European perspective(Routledge, New York,1996) ,pp.160-165. 301 The UNFCCC(2004), The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations framework Convention on Climate Change, available at , Accessed on May 10 2004. 302 Nigel Haigh, ― Climate Change Policies and Politics in the European Community‖, in Tim O'Riordan and Jill Jager(eds), Politics of climate change : a European perspective,( Routledge, New York,1996), pp.164-167.

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production and consumption by 2010, undertaking steps to develop alternative sources of employment for the sectors concerned. The European Union also needs to think about the specific situation of coal in some candidate countries, within the framework of the accession negotiations; (4) That by 2010, alternative fuels, including biofuels, should account for at least 7% of the fuel consumed by cars and trucks”. In January 2005 the European Union Greenhouse Gas Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) commenced operation as the largest multi-country, multi-sector greenhouse gas emission trading scheme world-wide. The scheme is based on Directive 2003/87/EC, which entered into force on 25 October 2003. Since the start of 2005, France, Germany, Italy and the UK have participated in the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), the biggest experiment yet in carbon trading, and the harbinger of the global market that will begin in 2008303.

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6.2.3 The International Level At the international level, the EU climate diplomacy aims to serve its global leadership in global governance area, and it has also been intimately involved in international deliberations on global warming and resulting climate change. ―The EU leads in the sense of always being at the forefront of efforts to strengthen the international commitments on climate change‖304. Firstly, based on the data from the World Energy Council, the EU produces about 14.7 percent of the world‘s carbon dioxide emissions (the chief greenhouse gas contributing to global warming), and all the European countries 19.6 percent of the world‘s carbon dioxide emissions305. According to Cox and Miro, ―an overall 8% reduction in GHG emissions is established for the EU by 2008 to 2012‖ 306. Secondly, the EU plays a role as a leader and pusher in international climate change action against global warming. The EU has used its dual status as the biggest economic bloc and its growing role as a major pusher to international commitments on climate change. The EU is one of the largest donors of environmental aid and the strongest support for the Kyoto protocol in the COP conferences. ―EU leadership on climate change has an international legitimacy‖307. The EU spends ―more resources on initiating more awareness of climate 303

The EU-ETS works on a ‗cap and trade‘ basis. The amount of permissible carbon pollution is divided up between industrial locations (called ‗installations‘ in the scheme) across Europe — this is the ‗cap‘ part. If any installation goes over its limit, it must purchase the equivalent amount of permits on the market, and conversely, if an installation is under its limit, it can sell its shortfall on the market — this is the ‗trade‘ part. ―Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS)‖,http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/emission.htm, Accessed on Oct. 1, 2007. 304 Grubb, Michael, ―The UK and European Union: Britannia Waives the Rules?‖, Detlef Sprinz ( Ed.), ‗ Climate Change After Marrakech: The Role of Europe in the Global Arena‘, available at. German Policy in Dialogue, Volume 2, Number 6, 4th Quarter 2001, Trier, Germany. 305 The UNFCCC, UN documents on COP negotiation, available at . Accessed on April 25 2004. 306 J E Cox and Carlos R Miro, ‗Europe's approach to climate change‘, ASHRAE Journal; Dec Volume 42(2000), Issue. 12, pp. 16-17. 307 Sandrine Labory, ―EU Climate Change Policy and Flexible Mechanisms: Where Do We Stand After the Bonn Meeting?” available at , EU Commentary , Centre for European Policy Studies, (July 24, 1998 ).

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impacts in developing countries‖308. Moreover, European countries tried their best to persuade other countries to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. At the EU Council Meeting on 31 May 2001, the EU decides to strengthen the capacity building of the developing countries against global warming. Refering to the Kyoto mechanisms, the EU supported Kyoto mechanisms like joint implementation among Annex I countries, but worried that the U.S. would avoid domestic GHG emissions reduction by environmental emissions trading with the developing countries. Carbon tax is also a very good experience for EU climate change policy implementation309, and is being introduced among many signatories to the UNFCCC. There is nearly a 20 year history since the EU (EC) began to address the global warming issues in 1985. Since UN Intergovernmental Establishment of INC/FCCC UNCED Conference in 1990, the EU has played an important role in building, negotiating and implementing the related international regime- UNFCCC, the EC assumed a lead role in the negotiations by virtue of its commitment to returning its joint carbon dioxide emissions. After the Bush administration rejected the Kyoto protocol, it is well known that the EU is making a genuine effort to play a proactive role in saving the UNFCCC and Kyoto protocol. In 2003, even at the expense of challenging his ally, George W. Bush, Tony Blair insisted in calling for global concern about the danger of imbalance in energy use and its effect on global warming. In 2004, The EU‘s willingness to trade support for Russian accession to the WTO for ratification of the Kyoto Protocol has given unprecedented promise to the international struggle against climate change. In early 2007, the EU decided to cut greenhouse gas emissions 20% by 2020, from 1990 levels, and by 30% if other industrialized nations join in. The EU also agreed to back collective cuts of 60% to 80% by 2050 compared with 1990 levels.

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6.3 CHINA-EU COOPERATION ON CLIMATE CHANGE 6.3.1 Cooperation on Regime Building for UNFCCC An international regime is vital for international cooperation and acquirements of common goods. International regimes can facilitate human cooperation. The UNFCCC is such a kind of regime against global warming. Chinese president Hu Jintao argued at the 2007 APEC Summit: ―The UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol constitute the legal basis of international cooperation on climate change and are the most authoritative, universal and comprehensive international framework for the issue‖. According to Mancur Olson's theory of collective action, major power interaction decides the rules and legitimacy of collective action. Thus, the development of the UNFCCC depends on the collaboration and coordination between China and EU.

308

Sprinz, Detlef, ―Germany: European Leadership, Active Climate Policy and Wall-Fall Profits‖, Detlef Sprinz ( Ed.), ‗ Climate Change After Marrakech: The Role of Europe in the Global Arena‘, available at. German Policy in Dialogue, Volume 2, Number 6, 4th Quarter 2001, Trier, Germany. 309 Richard N Cooper,‖Toward a real global warming treaty‖, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 77, Iss. 2(1998), pp.66-77.

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We can describe the regime building process from three stages: (1) before 1992 the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – this stage focuses on a consensus on international climate change regime building and the EU‘s responsibilities; (2) From the 1992 Rio Summit to the 1997 Kyoto Conference – this stage focuses on the legal bind for reducing the GHG emissions; (3) after the 1997 Kyoto conference – this stage focus on the implementation and ratification of Kyoto Protocol.

The Development of International Climate Regime 1992

1994 1995 1997

1998 2001 2002 2005

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2007

Rio Earth Summit - Rio signatories over 150 countries to the UNFCCC committed to achieving "stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system." Entry into force of the UNFCCC First Conference of the Parties (COP1), Berlin, Germany, Berlin Mandate, ― Common but differential responsibilities‖ for developing country(China plus Group 7) COP3, Kyoto - Over 160 countries sign the Kyoto Protocol. Industrialized signatories commit to binding GHG reductions of a global average of 5.2% below 1990 levels for the period of 2008-2012 COP 4, Buenos Aires, Argentina - Parties set deadline to decide on Kyoto rules. The implementation of reducing the GHG in developing countries. COP7, Marrakech the 165 nations endorsing the Marrakech consensus have adopted guidelines for implementing the Kyoto Protocol. COP8, New Delhi , China ratify the Kyoto Protocol The Second World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in September 2002. COP11and MOP1，Montreal, Canada. The Kyoto Protocol came into effect. The Montreal Action Plan is an agreement to extend the life of the Kyoto Protocol beyond its 2012 expiration date and negotiate deeper cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions. COP-13 and MOP-3 held in Bali, Indonesia. The negotiation focused on the post 2012 framework on GHG reduction.

In the first stage, from about 1990 to mid-1992, China and the EU worked together to formulate the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The EU and China achieved consensus on the principle of ―common but differentiated responsibilities‖ which made the UNFCCC came into force in 1994. The First Conference of the Parties (COP1) was convened in Berlin, Germany, and legal binding commitments supported and pushed by the EU were written in the Berlin Mandate which was supported by ―China plus Group 77.‖ The second stage lasted from mid-1992 to late-1997. The greatest subsequent challenges for China in the conferences of the parties to the FCCC were the Kyoto Protocol and the socalled flexible mechanisms for its implementation, such as the CDM, joint implementation (JI, whereby polluters could offset their emissions with projects in other countries) and international emissions trading (IET).310 The EU persuaded China and other the rest of the world to accept such kinds of environmental trading systems. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol was a great success for the EU to push the U.S. to reduce its GHG emissions with legal binds and a timetable. The Kyoto Protocol agreed that the countries of the EU are allowed to act jointly

310

Richard Cooper,‖Toward a Real Global Warming Treaty‖, Foreign Affairs, 77, 2 (1998), pp. 66-80.

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within their regional economic integration organization to fulfill commitments on reducing GHG emissions (EU buddle)311. The third stage ranged from late 1997 – when the parties to the FCCC agreed to the Kyoto Protocol - to the present. During this period, Chinese-EU cooperation has focused on two issues: (1) how to improve international environmental trading mechanisms and (2) preventing the Kyoto protocol to fall into failure because of American rejection. China shows great interest in the flexibility mechanisms like CDM. In 2000 at the Hague, ―Europeans made oppositions to U.S. advocacy of carbon sinks and emissions trading, and President Bush announced his opposition to the Protocol which brought a great challenge for the EU itself‖312. In 2001, after the endeavors of the EU, the Marrakech accords ―permits countries to initiate the process of ratification of the Kyoto Protocol‖313. Europe's willingness to trade support for Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) for ratification of the protocol provided the necessary incentive for Russia to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.

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6.3.2 China-EU Bilateral Cooperation China‘s current development routes are still growth-oriented, unsustainable and resource constraint economic models and it faces the crucial need to promote development while joining the global struggles against global warming while it has contributed to global economic growth. The EU is at a knowledge-intensity and energy leveling-off stage. The climate crisis should be solved through international coordination, cooperation and mutual assistance in clean energy development between China and the EU. The EU plays a proactive role in helping China to build a sustainable and low carbon society. Game theory is the study of the people behavior in strategic situations, so it can be used to analyze the gains of China and the EU when they make different choices on climate change cooperation. China has two choices: A is not reducing the greenhouse gas if developed countries provide technology and funds; B is reducing the GHGs. When China choose strategy B as it promised to share global responsibilities against global warming, EU countries will be confronted with two choices: C is not providing technology and funds to the developing countries; D is to provide technology and funds to developing countries. When EU countries choose C, China will consider slowing down its GHG emission increase because it lacks advanced technologies and enough funds. So the gains will be –1 and –3. When EU countries choose D, China can afford to reduce the GHG emission by building a low carbon society. So, they both gain +5.

311

Breidenich, Clare Daniel Magraw, Anne Rowley; James W Rubin, ‗The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations framework convention on climate change‘, The American Journal of International Law,Vol 92, Iss. 2(1998), pp. 315-332. 312 Stewart, Richard B. and Jonathan B. Wiener(2004), ―Reconstructing Climate Policy‖, available at , Accessed on May 2 2004. 313 The EU News Web (2004), ―Dangerous Substances‖, available at < http://www.eurunion.org/legislat/chemicallegcit.htm>. Accessed on May 28 2007.

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A

77

B -5, -5 -5, -5

-1, -3 +5, +5

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In the Ninth EU-China Summit held in Helsinki in September 2006, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and European leaders announced they would strengthen their dialogue and cooperation on the issue of climate change and to promote further development of international climate change policies.314 In 2005, the EU-China Partnership on Climate China Partnership on Climate Change had been built. This has provided a good foundation for strengthening dialogue and cooperation between the EU and China on Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), technology transfer and clean energy cooperation. The first Joint ChinaEU Workshop on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change took place in Beijing on 21-22 September 2006. As a developing country, China is eligible under the CDM to earn credits by undertaking emission-reduction activities. Now China is the largest recipient for CDM projects, most of which come from European countries. In July 2007, China and the European Union announced the launch of the EU-China CDM Facilitation Project to deal with climate change and boost CDM in China. The EU will provide 2.8 million euros for the EU-China CDM Facilitation Project which aims to promote sustainable development in China by developing the regulatory and policy regimes to facilitate application of the CDM in China.315 The EU is the largest donor to the Global Environment Facility (GEF). Under this framework of the GEF, international aid (funds and technology transfer) could enhance China‘s capabilities against global warming. China also tries to seek international technical assistance, GEF funds and loans in order to gain some economic benefits such as improving energy efficiency and reducing GHG emissions. China is the largest recipient of the GEF funding and welcomes the GEF as the financial mechanism for the UNFCCC, of which more than 70% is for climate change mitigation initiatives from the foundation of this mechanism.

6.4 CONFLICTS BETWEEN CHINA AND EU ON CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES 6.4.1 Common but Differential Responsibilities The principle of ―Common but Differentiated Responsibilities‖ is the global consensus in the UNFCCC. This principle means that the industrialized, wealthy countries of the world bear responsibility for global warming because of their historic emissions of greenhouse gases for more than three hundred years. Furthermore, developed countries‘ per capita emissions remain far above those of developing countries, meaning that their responsibility continues. According to the UNFCCC, “The largest share of historical and current global emissions of 314

"China, EU to Further Strengthen Cooperation on Climate Change",http://news.xinhua.net, accessed on Oct. 3, 2007. 315 "EU, China ink new project on climate change". China Daily, July 28, 2007.

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greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries, that per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low and that the share of global emissions originating in developing countries grow to meet their social and development needs. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof. The extent to which developing country Parties effectively implement their commitments under the Convention depend on the effective implementation by developed country Parties of their commitments under the Convention related to financial resources and transfer of technology and take fully into account that economic and social development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of the developing country Parties‖316. Due to the difference in the level of economic development (as well as political objectives) between China and the EU, there is a serious divergence of developing countries‘ carbon emission reduction. China is unhappy with the EU‘s reluctance to pay necessary regard to China‘s economic and technological backwardness while it urges China to take meaningful responsibilities to cut energy consumption. The EU urges China to assume the concrete responsibility and fixed timetable for carbon emission reduction, as early as it can, if not, the rapid increase of carbon emissions in China and other developing countries will counterbalance the endeavors of international environmental cooperation. For example, by 2006, carbon emissions in developing countries were 44 percent over 1990 levels, and 71 percent over 1986 levels. In 1998, the EU successfully persuaded the implementation of reducing the GHG in some Latin American countries, which led to the creation of the "Buenos Aires Plan of Action‖ which imposed greater pressures on China. At the COP8 in New Delhi in late 2002, China joined with India in reiterating its outright rejection of GHG emissions cuts for developing countries proposed by the EU, instead arguing that increased emissions would be required to lift their people out of poverty. China revealed its intentions at that conference. At COP5 in 1999, the Chinese delegation argued, ―it is impossible for the Chinese government to undertake any obligation of GHG emissions reduction before China attains the level of a medium-developed country. China would instead 'continue striving to abate the growth of GHG emissions in line with her own sustainable development strategy, and will continue actively promoting and participating in international cooperation‖317.

6.4.2 The Equity Development and Technology Transfer For the largest developing country of China, global warming issues also have been intimately linked with efforts to modernize the economy and the energy strategy employed to fuel that modernization. However, EU countries‘ resource and energy use is luxury, wasteful and competitive comparative to China and the rest of the developing world. China and other developing countries only struggle for their basic needs satisfaction, such as completion of industrialization of urbanization and basic physical life adequacy. It‘s an inalienable right of 316 317

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 9 May 1992, www.unfccc.int. Liu Jiang, 'Presentation in the Eighth Conference of Parties COP8, India', New Delhi, India (23 October to 1 November 2002), . Accessed on 12 April 2007.

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the developing world to further develop its economy, improve living standards, and enjoy the same living standards of people in the developed countries. Of the world's six billion people, one-third enjoys electricity. And one third -- two billion people -- simply lack access to modern energy services and live on less than $2 per day.318 As we know, China's emissions per person are still below the global average. "On average, each person in the US now emits more than five tonnes of carbon per year, while in China the figure is only one tonne per year. Since the start of the industrial revolution, the US and Europe account for more than 50 per cent of the total, accumulated global emissions over two centuries, while China accounts for less than eight per cent. The 50 least developed countries have together contributed less than 0.5 per cent of global cumulative emissions over 200 years."319 If China decreases the emission of GHG by 10-20%, the GDP of the country will decrease by 2%. When per capita income increases by 5.1%, the emissions of GHG also increase by 1.29%.320 China has joined with other developing countries in demanding that EU countries provide non-commercial technology assistance to developing countries to help them cope with climate change and to implement a low carbon economy. However, the EU has insisted on a carbon financial market system which links financial and technical assistance from developed countries through commercial approaches. China has made great contributions to the UNFCCC negotiations, notably when doing so would help codify requirements that developed countries help developing countries in technology transfer.

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6.4.3 Adaptation and Mitigation for Climate Change The EU put much higher priorities on mitigation than adaptation in climate change negotiation. However, there was a new alliance between the United States, China and many developing countries, such as India and members of OPEC. China agreed with the United States that adaptation measures – transfers of funds and technology from developed to developing countries to help them cope with climate change – were the preferred ways to address the problem. As such, China joined the United States in pushing the difficult issue of cutting emissions into the future, focusing instead on garnering as many financial and other resources as possible from the world's rich. By shifting the focus of the climate talks to adaptation, and away from mitigation, both the rich and poor countries could avoid doing what they dread the most: demanding that entrenched economic interests reduce their GHG emissions. China has been skeptical regarding a global carbon tax supported by the EU as a mitigation measure whose revenues could be used to finance technological transfer. As we know, higher trade dependence shares increase China‘s energy intensive industry and carbon 318

According to International Energy Agency data, the per capita total primary energy supply of the U.S. was more than six times higher than China's and nearly 15 times that of India's in 2004; the per capita emissions of carbon dioxide by these countries followed a similar pattern. 319 "CO2 emissions increasing faster than expected", M2 Presswire, May 22, 2007. 320 Zhang Zhongxiang: ―Macroeconomic Effect of Co2 Emissions Limits: A computer General Equilibrium Analysis‖, A paper presented at 7th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environment and Resource Economists, Lisbon.

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emissions. In 2005, China's GDP is 18670 billion RMB, and its exports of goods and services about 6858 billion RMB. In 2006, China's GDP is 21438 billion RMB, and its exports of goods & services 8396 billion RMB.321 Thus, the global carbon tax by EU will damage China‘s economic development.

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6.4.4 Conclusion International struggle against global warming is a political and environmental problem as well as an economic one. It involves various sectors of the national economy and so has an important bearing on all nations. The need for access to fossil fuels has increased and much more carbon emissions are emitted to cause a loss of balance between human activities and preservation of nature because of globalization, urbanization and industrialization. As the second and third largest carbon emitters, understanding China and the EU‘s climate change policies is extraordinarily important. The EU plays a role as a leader and pusher in international climate change action against global warming. The EU has used its dual status as the biggest economic bloc and its growing role as a major pusher to international commitments on climate change. The EU is one of the largest donors of environmental aid and the strongest supporter of the Kyoto Protocol in the COP conferences. Given the historical responsibility of the developed countries for the bulk of historical pollution causing global warming, China should continue to ally with other developing countries in an effort to push the rich countries to reduce their emissions of GHGs and to provide financial and technical assistance to help vulnerable countries adapt to climate change. A concerted transition to an economy that produces fewer carbon emissions is the road that China must choose, especially with financial and technical aid from the developed world. However, such aid would have to come with clear restrictions from the developed world. Stern Review argued rich countries like the EU could drive flows amounting to tens of billions of dollars each year to support the transition to low-carbon development paths. Stern Review estimates that if we don‘t act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more.322 Thus, it is essential that climate change be fully integrated into development policy, EU should help China to build the equity, a sustainable, clean and low carbon growth model.

321 322

"China: 5-year forecast table",Economist Intelligence Unit - ViewsWire, April 16, 2007. Nicholas Stern,―Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change,‖http://www.hmtreasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_index.cfm.

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Chapter 7

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INTERESTS-BASED EXPLANATION FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DIPLOMACY China's environmental policy has sought to further several goals: protect Chinese sovereignty, acquire foreign aid and technical assistance, and promote China's economic development.323 John P. Burns argues there are three interests-based incentives for China‘s foreign policy coordination: fiscal pressures, economic globalization, and economic development.324 In this chapter, I discuss the interests based explanation in the relation between the foreign policy coordination in China and the UNFCCC. The interests based explanation shows a great importance in public policy studies, which touch upon the international factors‘ role, policy orientation and interest‘s distribution in Chinese political structure. Elizabeth Economy argues that regimes often provide training opportunities, financial transfers, and technological advances that enable policy change.325According to Pearson, interests of international regimes can be articulated directly to key government actors, and change the policy process.326 Samuel S. Kim argues that Chinese foreign policy is seen as the one outcome of a continuing interplay between decisionmakers‘ perceptions of interests and their perceptions of responses to international material pressures.327The Chinese governmental policy on development and the environment is, to some extent, affected by international development assistance.328 According to Huang Jing, institutional interests determine policy choices on the foreign policy coordination level in

323

Economy, E : 'China's Environmental Diplomacy' in Kim, S (ed) China and the World: Chinese Foreign Policy Faced the New Millennium, Westview Press, Boulder:1998), p264. 324 John P. Burns: ―Horizontal Government: policy coordination in China‖, paper prepared for the International Conference on Governance in Asia: Culture, Ethics, Institutional reform and Policy change, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, December 2002. 325 Elizabeth Economy: ―The impact of international regimes on China‘s foreign policy-making: Broading perspectives and policies but only to a point‖, in David Lampton (ed.), The Making of Chinese Foreign and security Policy in the Era of Reform 1978-2000., (Stanford, California, Stanford University 2001), pp 236-257. 326 Margaret M. Pearson: ―The Major Multilateral economic Institutions Engage China‖, in Aistair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross (ed.): Engaging China: the management of an emerging power ;(New York: Rutledge, 1999). 327 Kim, 1998, pp 23-24. 328 Lin Gan: ―Global environmental policy in social contexts: The case of China‖, in Knowledge & Policy, (Winter 92/93), Vol. 5 Issue 4, pp 30-40.

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China and conflicts of institutional interests can constitute an essential dynamic in the policy process.329 After the Tiananmen crackdown, China was diplomatically isolated and internationally condemned, and that blocked the transfer of international funds as well. As we know, most of its aid was temporarily cut off. Aid and loans from the IMF and the World Bank were suspended for a year. The climate change issue came under focus at the same time China needed to regain its international funds and technology transfer. It was an ideal tool, since due to its population and sheer size, together with the G77 and China coalition, which reinforced the international sense that China was an important country to get international funds against climate change330. Chinese leaders put emphasize on the relation between its interests (mainly economic development) and environmental cooperation when it joined the UNFCCC. In 1992, when Chinese Premier Li Peng signed the UNFCCC, he expounded China‘s views on national interests related to environmental cooperation as follow: ―Economic development must be harmonized with environmental protection. Environmental problems should be tackled with a view of the present, practical interests of different nations as well as the long-term interests of the world‖. Deng Nan has remarked, ―If environmental problems are ignored in the process of development, economic development will be seriously hampered. We should extensively launch international cooperation.‖331 Zhang Zhihong argues that the UNFCCC generates tangible and intangible interests for China. The tangible benefits include external financial and technical assistance, transfer of advanced, environmentally friendly technologies, foreign investments, and management know-how. The intangible benefits are likely to be just as important. China can boost its image as an environmentally responsible nation and climate change to further its foreign policy goals, including cementing solidarity with developing countries and enhancing relations with developed countries and multilateral agencies.332 I will try to put my emphasis on the first explanation on the international funds through the GEF.

329

Jing, Huang: Factionalism in Chinese Communist Politics, University of Combridge, 2000, pp 20-26. Y. Kobayshi: ―China: Luxury VS. survival Emissions‖, in Paul G. Harris (ed.): Global Warming and East Asia: the Domestic and International Politics of Climate Change, Project on Environmental Change & Foreign Policy, Department of Politics & Sociology, Lingnan University of Hongkong, 2002. pp 63. 331 Administration Center for China‘s Agenda 21: the Documents of the UN conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, (Beijing: Environmental Science Publish. Inc. 1992). 332 Zhang Zhihong: ―Forces Behind China‘s Policy‖, in Paul G. Harris (ed.): Global Warming and East Asia: the Domestic and International Politics of Climate Change, Project on Environmental Change & Foreign Policy, Department of Politics & Sociology, 2002. p. 57. 330

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7.1 THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL FACILITY 333(GEF) AND THE INTERESTS IMPOSED BY THE GEF ON CHINA

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7.1.1 The GEF as a Financial Mechanism of the UNFCCC to Prevent Global Warming The Conference of the Parties on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) decided at its first session: ―The restructured GEF shall continue, on an interim basis, to be the international entity entrusted with the operation of the financial mechanism referred to in Article 11 of the Convention.‖ It also decided, ―in accordance with Article 11.4 of the Convention, to review the financial mechanism within four years and take appropriate measures, including a determination of the definitive status of the GEF in the context of the Convention.‖334 The Global Environment Facility (GEF) in the context of the UNFCCC is a financial support regime to encourage developing countries to contribute to the prevention of global warming, the most pressing global environmental problem. Until now, the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) has the world‘s unique multilateral environmental funding source, the only multilateral financial mechanism, and the financial implementing agency for climate change built into the UNFCCC. The GEF provides financial support for projects related to climate change, and provides grants and financing to developing countries to improve their capabilities to protect global warming.335 The GEF plays the unique and significant role of providing financial support in the UNFCCC, and it integrates different countries‘ climate change policies with the UNFCCC. The Conference of Parties on the UNFCCC officially includes adaptation of the GEF, as an operating entity of the financial mechanism in the UNFCCC. From that time, the GEF became one part of the UNFCCC. It is used to make working reports to the Conference of the Parties (COP) in the UNFCCC and run according to the agreements from COP. Capacity building for reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) is a central feature of most GEF projects. It results in indirect impacts on developing countries, such as China, and affects their abilities to master, absorb and diffuse technologies related to reducing greenhouse gases (GHG). GEF Projects build the human resources and institutional capacities that are widely recognized as important conditions for technology adoption and diffusion. Since its inception, the Global Environment Facility (GEF) has promoted technology transfer, grants, and loans for reducing Green House Gases (GHG) through a series of projects in developing countries. From 1991 to mid-1999, the GEF approved grants totaling US$706 million in 45 countries. These related to capacity building to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG). The total cost of these projects exceeds US$5 billion, because the GEF has leveraged financing through loans and other resources from governments, other donor agencies, the private sector, and the three GEF project-implementing agencies (UN Development Programme, UN Environment Programme and World Bank Group). An

333

www.gefweb.org www.unfccc.int, www.gefweb.org 335 Lin Gan: "Global Environmental Policy in Transition: An Actors' Perspective", in Global Environmental Change Human and Policy Dimensions, Vol. 3, No. 2,( June,1993). 334

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additional US$180 million in grants for enabling activities and short-term response measures are approved for climate change.

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7.1.2 The Interests Imposed by the GEF on China The interaction of domestic politics and international negotiations emphasizes, at the national level, domestic interests pressing for policies conducive to their interests internationally.336 Global warming is inherently a global problem, and China cannot act upon preventing global warming without necessary financial and technological assistance. The Global Environmental Facility (GEF) will be very important for China. ―China will actively seek investment from the international community for projects which assist in the slowing of climate changes.‖337 Under this framework of the GEF, international aid (funds and technology Transfer) could enhance China‘s capabilities against global warming. China also tries to seek international technical assistance, GEF funds and loans in order to gain some economic benefits such as improving energy efficiency and reduce GHG emissions.338 Since the beginning of the establishment of the GEF, China has been actively involved. The Chinese government has positively backed the preparation of projects for GEF support. This is in conjunction with the realization that the GEF may become a major source of funding for the national environmental scheme.339 China is the largest recipient of the GEF funding and welcomes the GEF as the financial mechanism for the UNFCCC. China has also received a disproportionately large share of the resources dispersed by the GEF in the past. For example, in energy efficiency and renewable projects, the GEF has provided $38 million.340 Under the financial support of the GEF, the Chinese Energy Conservation project is building capacities of private-sector energy service companies, as well as those of public agencies to disseminate information, experience and the best practices. Also in Gansu Province, China, a GEF project is helping to develop technical capacity for a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).341 According to Mr. Lee342, Director of the Ministry of Finance in China, from 1992-2002, the GEF has made US$1,200 million in commitments to China, of which more than 70% is for climate change mitigation initiatives from the foundation of this mechanism. According to the World Bank – GEF project portfolio of 2001, China has been approved to receive US$ 173 million in GEF grants for seven projects, five of which (with US $ 25 million in GEF funds) have a climate change focus. The total costs of the seven projects amount to US$1,445 million. Most of these projects aim at improving energy efficiency and 336

Karen T. Litfin, Ozone Discourses: Science and Politics in Global Environmental Cooperation, (New York: Columbia University Press, 1994). 337 See China‘s State Council(ed.):China‘s Agenda 21-White paper on China‘s population, environment, and development in the 21st century,(Beijing: Environmental Science Press), 1994. 338 Ibid.. 339 Lin Gan: ―Global environmental policy in social contexts: The case of China‖, in Knowledge & Policy, Winter92/93, Vol. 5 Issue 4, pp 30-40. 340 Center for Energy, Environment and Climate Change Energy Research Institute, Proceeding of Climate Change Policy Assessment 2002, ERI-CEEC 2002-01. 341 I attended a seminar on this program in Tsinghua University. 342 My interview in the Ministry of Finance

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promoting renewable energy development in China. These grants account for nearly 10 percent of the World Bank- GEF portfolio and about 17 percent of its climate change funding. In addition, UNDP has allocated more than US$65 million GEF funds to China, more than 78 percent of which are earmarked for climate change before 2001. This represents about 7 percent of the UNDP-GEF funding expected to increase in the future, China has every reason to continue to participate in collective action against climate change through the GEF343. Professor Wang, a famous energy expert in Tsinghua University, asked for financial support to the national capacity building for climate change. He said, ―the foreign funds will alleviate the financial pressure for the huge cost on China‘s clean energy program somewhat, and ―the GEF is willing to invest and provide technical assistance for China's clean energy program to control China's contribution to global warming"344. The table below shows a project of the UNDP through GEF to help China increase its capability against global warming. In this project, the international fund plays a very important role.

Figure 7.1. A Project of the UNDP through GEF to help China . Resource: http//: www. undp.org/gef)

343

Zhang Zhihong: ―Forces Behind China‘s Policy‖, in Paul G. Harris (ed.): Global Warming and East Asia: the Domestic and International Politics of Climate Change, Project on Environmental Change & Foreign Policy, Department of Politics & Sociology, 2002. P49 – P50. 344 Refer to my interviews in Nuclear Energy School of Tsinghua University.

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In the questionnaires from 40 experts and officials related to Chinese climate change policymaking, the GEF and China, there are 32 people admitting that the fund from the GEF plays a positive role in policymaking of its bureaucracy, and among them, 15 people argue that this role will be large or very large.

17

18 16 14 12 10

8

8

7

7

6 4 1

2 0 A

B

C

D

E

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Figure 7.2. The GEF‘s role in China.

A means very large role, B means large role, C means some role, D means not large role, E means Minor role. Concerning the questionnaires from 43 officials and experts related to the question ―what brings China the most benefits after China ratified the Kyoto Protocol.‖ Though 27 people think it is the improvement of international reputations, 16 other people make different choices like funds, technology transfer and energy industry renovation, which are provided by the GEF.

30

27

25 20 15 10

9 6

5 0 A

B

C

0

1

D

E

Figure 7.3 What brings China the most benefits after China ratified the Kyoto Protocol

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A. international funds; B. international repute; C. renovation of energy source and industry with international assistance; D trade of international environment ; E. introduction of science and technology; F. other. According to the fieldwork, the GEF projects are also testing and demonstrating a variety of financing and institutional models for promoting technology diffusion for China. These projects include345 local photovoltaic dealers/entrepreneurs; several other projects assisting public and private project developers to install grid-based wind, biomass and geothermal technologies for energy-efficiency technologies; projects promoting technology diffusion through energy-service companies, technical assistance and capacity building; and projects providing direct assistance to manufacturers for developing and marketing more efficient refrigerators and industrial boilers through foreign technology transfer. Table 7.1. How the GEF Helps China Improve the Capacity to Reduce the GHG Emissions. Sector Steel Industry

Chemical Industry Paper Making Textile Non-ferrous metal Building Materials

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Machinery Residential Service

Transport

Commonse Technology

Technologies Large size equipment (Coke Oven, Blast furnace, Basic oxygen furnace, etc.), Equipment of coke dry quenching, Continuous casting machine, TRT, Continuous rolling machine, Equipment of coke oven gas, OH gas and BOF gas recovery, DC-electric are furnace Large size equipment for Chemical Production, Waste Heat Recover System, Ion membrane technology, Existing Technology Improving Co-generation System, facilities of residue heat utilization, Black liquor recovery system, Continuous distillation system Co-generation System, Shuttleless loom, High Speed Printing and Dyeing Reverberator furnace, Waste Heat Recover System, QSL for lead and zinc production Dry process rotary kiln with pre-calciner,Electric power generator with residue heat,Colburn process, Hoffman kin, Tunnel kiln High speed cutting, Electric-hydraulic hammer, Heat Preservation Furnace Cooking by gas, Centralized Cooling Heating System, Co-generation System, Energy Saving Electric Appliance, High Efficient Lighting Centralized Space Heating System, Centralized Cooling Heating System, Co-generation System, Energy Saving Electric Appliance, High Efficient Lighting Diesel truck, Low Energy Use Car, Natural Gas Car, Electric Railway Locomotives High Efficiency Boiler, FCB Technology, High Efficiency Electric Motor, Speed Adjustable Motor, Centrifugal Fun, Energy Saving Lighting

(From Center for Energy, Environment and Climate Change Energy Research Institute, Proceeding of Climate Change Policy Assessment 2002, ERI-CEEC 2002-01.)

In this regard, the book argues that the GEF plays a significant and comprehensive role in China‘s climate change policy. Without the GEF‘s support, existing financial constraints would make it difficult to initiate action from governmental institutions for effecting global climate change. 345

The interview in the Planning Committee. April 2003.

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7.2 THE GEF AND THE FOREIGN POLICY COORDINATION PROCESS IN CHINA How do the benefits from the GEF affect the foreign policy coordination process in China? There are three traditional explanatory models: first, the rational-unitary actor model; second, the organizational process model; and third, the bureaucratic politics model. Concerning the rational-unitary actor model, the government identifies its interest options based on costs and benefits analysis, and each final decision is based on optimizing various interests of the government. With regard to the organizational process model, government identifies its interests pursued by the various organizations according to its standard operating procedures. For the bureaucratic politics model, different organizations have different interests based on professional norms and self-interests. Policy is the outcome of various overlapping bargains. Decisions result from compromise, conflict, and confusion of officials with different interests and influences. According to Helen Milner, the policy preference of actors in domestic politics derives from their basic interests. Actors are assumed to have certain fundamental interests, captured by their utility functions, which they attempt to maximize based on ―office–seeking‖ motivation346. Two points are inferred from the above on foreign policy coordination toward the GEF: first, different related bureaucracies have different organizational interests and different perceptions of section interests on the GEF; second, the bureaucratic units try to work vigorously to promote and protect their own interests in the foreign policy coordination on the GEF.

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7.2.1 The Different Preference of China’s Bureaucracies in the GEF Institutional pluralism is structurally based on the functional division of authority among office holders.347 Institutional pluralism is characterized by conflicts among political leaders and bureaucrats who must be reckoned with mainly according to the institutional resources provided by their offices.348 From the discussion below, we can see that climate change policy making has been driven by a number of a different – and, at times, contradictory – concerns among the different bureaucracies. In the eyes of Chinese bureaucracies, the goal of preventing global warming is to achieve and sustain rapid economic development. They argue that economic development will increase the capability of environmental protection.349 Thus, acquiring the grants and funds from the GEF is of special significance for Chinese bureaucracies. The GEF imposed interests mainly on the energy industry, technology transfer, and environmental industry. Many bureaucracies' interests and goals are involved in these issues. 346

Helen V. Milner: Interests, Institutions, and Information-Domestic Politics and International Relations, (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University, 1999), pp 31-35. 347 Jan-Erik Lane and Svante Ersson: Comparative Political Economy-a Developmental Approach, (Pinter Publishers, 1997), pp 239-242. 348 Carol Lee Harrin and Suisheng Zhao(ed.): Decision Making in Deng’s China Perspectives from Insiders, (New York: M.E. Sharpe Armonk), pp 240-241. 349 According to The interviews with senior officials : Mu Guang feng , Zhang Kunming, Gao Guang Sheng

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According to Lin Gan,350 the GEF functions as a catalytic medium to generate a positive response from the government on global warming issues. The GEF has, so far, attracted a great deal of attention from the Committee of Development and Planning, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the State Economic and Trade Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the State Environmental Protection Administration. This is because every agency is eager to be involved in the projects and achieve their interests. Michael T. Hatch argues that China‘s bureaucratic interests get involved in policy making on climate change.351 With reference to the definition of bureaucracy interests toward the GEF, the Committee of Development and Planning is the implementing agency for energy projects, the Ministry of Science and Technology for technology transfers, the State Environmental Protection Administration for environmental science, and the Ministry of Finance for funds management and contacts with the GEF. According to the organizational and bureaucracy model, these bureaucracies will promote and protect their own interests through the discussion or SOP (standard operational process). Please refer to the table below for the different interests or preferences for China‘s bureaucracies in the GEF. Table 7.2. The different interests or preferences for China’s bureaucracies in the GEF The name of bureaucracies Ministry of Development and Planning Ministry of Foreign Affairs

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Ministry of Science and Technology State Economic and Trade Commission China Meteorological Administration Ministry of Finance State Environmental Protection Administration Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Communications Ministry of Water Resources Ministry of Construction

Interests and preferences Energy industry, coordinate national development, state development strategy concerned, coordinate the conflicts among different bureaucracies Concerns on international norms, laws Seek consensus toward the UNFCCC with the bargaining of domestic bureaucracies Scientific & Technology management, control on the transfer of funds and technology Funds transfer and international environmental trade, State Economic and Trade development strategy International science and technology cooperation Control the international funds from the UNFCCC Environmental science, law building, Agriculture development strategy, international financial support on the research Electric and Efficiency communication methods Water Electric power station Energy efficiency building

7.2.2 The Foreign Policy Coordination Process on the GEF All bureaucracies who join in the foreign policy coordination on the GEF are in the same rank, and below the top level. According to David Lampton and Kenneth G. Lieberthal, policy making below the very peak of the Chinese Political system is fragmented and 350

351

Gan, Lin: ―Global environmental policy in social contexts: The case of China‖, in Knowledge & Policy, (Winter92/93), Vol. 5 Issue 4, pp 30-40. Michael T. Hatch: Domestic Politics and International Negotiations: The Politics of Climate Change in China , http://www.fu-berlin.de/ffu/akumwelt/bc2001/files/Hatch_final.PDF.

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disjointed.352 Nevertheless, the survey findings overthrow their argument in the case of climate change policy making. A foreign policy coordination framework develops according to the GEF‘s requirements and foreign policy coordination work with a ―window agency.‖ It is empirically obvious that policy making toward the GEF policy making in this area is in an orderly manner, not anarchy, fragmented and disjointed. For example, in one program of the GEF, a US $2 million technical assistance project entitled "GHG emissions strategy study," was approved by the GEF in early 1992. This project attempts to initiate a systematic and quantitative approach to developing a least cost strategy for the GHG emission reduction. In addition, this project includes three bureaucracies involving: (1) the Ministry of Economic and Trade for improving the quantity and form of the supplied coal and the efficiency of coal use, (2) the Planning and Development Committee for improving the efficiency of industrial boilers353and (3) the Ministry of Finance for funds management and foreign policy coordination. With the coordination of these bureaucracies, China puts forward a consensus proposal to the GEF, and gets the funds in the end. According to Lieberthal and Lampton, ―Each organization and unit had its own ideology, sense of mission, and priorities, which are sacred to it. Each believes that its objectives truly embody the general welfare. Each organization is afraid that it will not be adequately consulted and that its interests are ignored. In order to resolve these sorts of conflicts as they apply to specific projects, the Chinese leadership repeatedly has had to resort to creating ad hoc inter-ministerial groups to forge compromises.‖354 Therefore, a mode of foreign policy coordination should be sought to guarantee the finical support from the GEF. The foreign policy coordination framework is, at first, the GEF will contact the ―window agency‖- the Ministry of Finance; then the MOF will distribute the information on GEF to different bureaucracies and collect their proposals; later, the MOF will coordinate the different preferences or interests among different bureaucracies; finally, a consensus policy will be fed back to the GEF. The table below illustrates the foreign policy coordination process: Based on the conception of the foreign policy coordination in China, consensus (Tong Yi Kou Jing) building, bargaining, and model of final policymaking are three basic constituents. How does the GEF influence consensus building, bargaining and the model of final decisionmaking? First, consensus building is very necessary for the funds introduction and technology transfer of the GEF. All bureaucracies have to attain one goal: the funds or technology transfer from the GEF, thus, there should be some consensus building toward the GEF. Second, the bargaining happens at the stage of policy proposals from different bureaucracies. In the foreign policy coordination process toward the GEF, every bureaucracy is responsible for one duty in particular and has different preferences or interests in the GEF. There are different voices and some conflicts among the different bureaucracies on the fund introduction and technology transfer of the GEF. 352

David Lampton and Kenneth G. Lieberthal (ed.), Bureaucracy, politics, and decision making in Post-Mao China, (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1992), pp 2-6 and Lieberthal and Okesenberg, Policy Making in China, (Bloomington and Indianapolis: Indiana University Press 1982), pp 23-24. 353 www.gef.int, accessed in April, 2003. 354 Lieberthal, Kenneth G. and David M. Lampton (eds.): Bureaucracy, Politics, and Decision Making in Post-Mao China, (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1992).

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Figure 7.4. Foreign policy coordination process toward the GEF.

Third, the final decision is made in the stage of coordinating different bureaucracies by MOF. The ―window agency‖ –the Ministry of Finance- coordinates the different voices and resolves the conflicts among the bureaucracies related to the GEF. The ―window agency‖ has two meanings: first, to deal with all the issues with the GEF including financial transfer, monitoring, and feedback; and second, to coordinate the different interests. According to Mr. Lee 355, a senior official in the Ministry of Finance, there was no foreign policy coordination and ―window agency‖ in climate change before the foundation of international climate change regimes in 1992. However, after 1992 the appearance of the UNFCCC and the GEF, China had to develop foreign policy coordination in this area so that the financial support and technology transfer could work in China. The Ministry of Finance has a very strong coordination capability. Other bureaucracies have their section interests in the GEF, but the Ministry of Finance does not. In this connection, it is very useful for the Ministry of Finance to play a role as the ―window‖ and coordinator in foreign policy coordination toward the GEF. Table 7.3. The GEF’s project activities in the climate change area approved between May and December 1996356 Country Project Name China Energy Efficient CFC-free Refrigerators China Energy Conservation Promotion Colombia Biogases Power Russian Federation Regional Energy Efficiency TOTAL

GEF Financing (In US$ Millions) 0.243 0.350 0.025 0.025 0.643

Resources: www.gefweb.org

This foreign policy coordination process has lasted around 10 years, and succeeded in transferring the GEF funds to different bureaucracies because every bureaucracy joins in the 355 356

The interview in the Ministry of Finance, April 2003. www.gefweb.org, accessed in May 2003.

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foreign policy coordination with one final target to get the GEF financial support for China. Through this effective foreign policy coordination toward the GEF, China thus put considerable effort into the project proposal preparation. As a result, China was among the first to submit project proposals, and the most favorable country. We can see this point from a project list from the GEF.

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7.3 SUMMARIES Chinese officials have taken developing environmental industries, advancing sustainable development, and gaining aid and technology transfer as China‘s objectives in environmental diplomacy.357 Thus, an interests-based explanation is important for the UNFCCC and foreign policy coordination in China. From the discussion above, three points were concluded for the development of foreign policy coordination with the GEF. First, the GEF is the interests‘ input that affects inter-ministry preference and interests; different bureaucracies have to be involved. The output is the outcome of compromising among different bureaucracies, and resulting from the necessity of foreign policy coordination with a ―window agency.‖ Interests imposed by international regimes can facilitate the coordination in Chinese policymaking. The GEF functions as a catalytic medium to generate a positive effect from the UNFCCC on foreign policy coordination in China, and improve Chinese capacity building for climate change. Second, the different bureaucracies have different ministry interests in some narrow subject areas and their preference to the GEF tend to become parochial, not panoramic. In this process, the GEF needs mutual accommodation not unilateral action and a diversity of preferences and interests that must be reconciled before reaching a decision. Because a basic consensus is needed, the consensus building has to be sought both horizontally in the system according to Lieberthal358, in the same time, consensus building does not always follow the model of ―management by exception‖359 because of the existence of the ―window agency.‖ It means that at each level of the organizational hierarchy, agency representatives make decisions by a rule of consensus. If they all agree, the coordination institute for climate change automatically ratifies the decision. If the related bureaucrats cannot reach consensus, then the decision is referred to the ―window agency‖- the Ministry of Finance that is in the same rank as the other bureaucracies – and if the MOF cannot agree, then no policy can be attained. According to Mr. Lee in the MOF, the final decision can be made most times because the interest conflicts among different bureaucracies on climate change policy is not

357

Y. Kobayshi: China: Luxury VS. survival Emissions, in Paul G. Harris (ed.): Global Warming and East Asia: the Domestic and International Politics of Climate Change, Project on Environmental Change & Foreign Policy, Department of Politics & Sociology, Lingnan University, 2002. pp 63. 358 Lieberthal and Okesenberg, 1988, pp 23-24. 359 It means that at each level of the organizational hierarchy, agency representatives make decisions by a rule of consensus. If they all agree, the decision is automatically ratified by the higher level. If the bureaucrats cannot reach consensus, then the decision is referred to the higher levels, and if the higher levels cannot agree, then either nothing happens or the ultimate principal, the Communist Party, intervenes to impose a solution.

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obvious before China shares the responsibilities to reduce the GHG emissions and changes its industry structure. Third, according to Lampton, foreign policy coordination occurs because these bureaucracies believe that the gains to be made by mutual accommodation exceed those to be made by unilateral action (if that were possible) or by forgoing agreement altogether (hierarchy structure, agenda setting, autonomy).360 China and its different bureaucracies cannot get the financial support from the GEF without a ―consensus.‖ According to an expert in the Ministry of Agriculture, the GEF planned to build a ―Waste Heat Recovery System‖ in China in 1998. The Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Environmental Bureaucracy all want to do it by themselves and refuse to compromise at all; thus no consensus policy is fed back to the GEF, and China lost this financial support of about USD1 million . From 1999 to 2002, the GEF began to support the project for the sustainable information network building (the details of this project is not open) for China‘s capacity building for sustainable development. These networks will serve to connect the relevant agencies in environmental development. The Ministry of Finance acts as a focal point for interactions with the GEF. The Ministry of Finance nominated the Ministry of Science and Technology as the implementing agency for this project due to its experience and high quality performance in the network building area. This foreign policy coordination is successful, and brings China more than US$ 600,000 from the GEF. Fourth, China‘s capacity for preventing global warming increases a lot with the effective foreign policy coordination toward the GEF. According to Mr. Lee,361 Director in the Ministry of Finance of China from 1992-2002, the GEF has made US$12 billion in commitments to China, more than 70% for climate change mitigation initiatives from the foundation of this mechanism. Mr. Lee362 also explains that from the perspective of costbenefits analysis, international funds, and technology could make China get more benefits from joining in international struggles against global warming. From the discussion above, the GEF plays a positive role in foreign policy coordination in China based on the theoretical context of an interests-based explanation. However, only interests-based is not enough for explaining the development of foreign policy coordination in China. First, the GEF may not benefit many other bureaucracies (i.e., Civil Aviation Administration of China). Second, foreign policy coordination toward the COP is also very important and under the control of the Committee of Planning and Development, not the Ministry of Finance. Besides, the GEF cannot help China to resolve all the issues around climate change because China is too large to depend only on foreign loans and grants, though it is somewhat helpful. Therefore, an in-depth discussion on the knowledge-based explanation and a domesticbased explanation and on the relations between the UNFCCC and the foreign policy coordination in China follows in the next chapters.

360

David Lampton: ―A plum for a peach: bargaining, Interest, and Bureaucratic politics in China‖, in Kenneth G. and Lieberthal David Lampton(ed.): Bureaucracy, politics, and decision making in Post-Mao China, (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1992). 361 The interview in the Ministry of Finance, April 2003. 362 The interview in the Ministry of Finance, April 2003.

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Chapter 8

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KNOWLEDGE-BASED EXPLANATION FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DIPLOMACY According to Keohane and Nye, ―our world is characterized by an increase in international interdependence and a greater connection among policy issues.‖363 In the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change), this kind of policy issue connection is everywhere, and the UNFCCC is a very representative case for the cross policymaking based on an inter-subjective knowledge base. Kobayshi argues that the UNFCCC negotiations were high profile negotiations, putting China in the spotlight whenever it took the initiatives. Its officials stated that China was a constructive player citing many inter-ministerial controls (i.e., afforestation and population growth) as China‘s contribution to the UNFCCC effort364. Foreign policy coordination problems stemming both from a lack of necessary knowledge,365 and knowledge-based factors from the UNFCCC (i.e., issues in the COP negotiation, international norms, principles and epistemic communities) show an increasing effect on the slow progress of foreign policy coordination on climate change. Ross Lester argues that the determination for China to resist certain international norms would be expected to diminish over time through the spread of knowledge.366 In addition, she argues: ―If the state lacks knowledge or is impervious to information concerning the existence of particular problems, their salience, and the most effective means for their revolution, the prospects for cooperation are correspondingly limited. If the state exhibits a tendency to acknowledge the existence of environmental problems internally and takes action on them

363

Robert O Keohane and Joseph S. Nye: Power and Interdependence, (New York: Harper Collins, New York, 1989), p. 1. 364 Y. Kobayshi: ―China: Luxury VS. Survival Emissions‖, in Paul G. Harris (ed.): Global Warming and East Asia: the Domestic and International Politics of Climate Change, Project on Environmental Change & Foreign Policy, Department of Politics & Sociology, Lingnan University, 2002. pp. 101 365 Nina P Halpern: ―Information Flows and Policy Coordination in the Chinese Bureaucracy‖, Kenneth G. Lieberthal and David Lampton (ed.): Bureaucracy, politics, and decision making in Post-Mao China, (Berkeley : University of California Press, 1992). 366 Ross Lester: China: Environmental Protection, Domestical Policy Trends, Patterns of Participation in Regimes and Compliance with International Norms”, the China Quarterly, 1998,pp. 816-817..

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domestically, then the prospects for international progress through cooperation encouragement of the state’s environmental policy-making capacity are enhanced367.‖ The knowledge-based factors are important for foreign policy coordination on climate change as follows: Firstly, because the UNFCCC should be regard as a scientific (climate change science and energy science) problem-solving regime, so foreign policy coordination on climate change is so deeply connected to scientific and technical knowledge. Secondly, interests of China toward the UNFCCC are not clearly defined because of many uncertainties concerning the climate change science and the cost to reduce the GHG emissions in China.368 Thus, knowledge may become a significant source of foreign policy coordination as it facilitates the clarification of China‘s identities on the UNFCCC.369 Thirdly, without enough knowledge integration from different fields, China cannot identify its national interests or cope with the issues negotiated in the Conference of Parties. In my book, knowledge-based has two meanings: one is the scientific factor to induce specialization in the foreign-policy coordination process; another is some international nominative factors. This chapter clarifies that the UNFCCC facilitates the development of foreign policy coordination in China from knowledge-based aspects. The analysis focus on the role of two aspects: (1) the issues negotiated in the Conference of Parties (COP) which lead to the specialization in the foreign policy coordination process (2) some normative factors in the UNFCCC, which means the standards of behavior defined in terms of rights and obligations in the UNFCCC and Kyoto protocol.

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8.1 THE ISSUES NEGOTIATED IN THE CONFERENCE OF PARTIES (COP) OF THE UNFCCC AND CHINA’S POLICY According to the related officials, the issues negotiated in the Conference of Parties (COP) of the UNFCCC are the determinant factors for China‘s foreign policy coordination. Mr. Ma, an official in the Committee of Development and Planning, argues that issues negotiated in the COP show great importance in China‘s policymaking. Mr. Huang, an official in the Ministry of Science and technology, argues that the foreign policy coordination is decided by the development of negotiation on the issues of climate change. The issues negotiated in the UNFCCC are used as an argument in a variety of situations ranging from whether new cars should be taxed less than the old ones to the formation of 370 national energy policies . Mr. Luo, an official in the China Meteorological Administration, argues that foreign policy coordination is necessary because controlling climate change requires knowledge from many disciplines. He also admits that international factors are very important for China‘s foreign policy coordination on climate change. 367

Ross Lester: China:‖ Environmental Protection, Domestical Policy Trends, Patterns of Participation in Regimes and Compliance with International Norms‖, the China Quarterly, 1998, pp.811 368 This augment is based on my interviews with Professor Ding YiHui, the Former President of IPCC, he also gave a lesson on the climate change and UNFCCC to the top leaders in the State Council. 369 According to my interviews with Professor Zhang Shiqiu, Beijing University 370 Parsons, Michael L. and S. Fred Singer: Global Warming: The Truth Behind the Myth. (New York: Insight, 1995), pp 110.

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Accumulation of GHGs though human activities in the atmospheric window has critical impacts, because all life on Earth depends on using it as a release for energy. The impacts of temperature changes are devastating (i.e., a rise in sea levels all around the world; an increase in extremely hot and extremely cold days; an increased occurrence of droughts and flooding; more extreme rainfall events with the possibility of an increase in the occurrence and intensity of tropical storms and cyclones; an expansion in the range and incidence of serious diseases and other direct impacts on human health as well as a loss of countless plant and animal species). Additional rapid increases in CO2 emissions could also slow down or stop the ocean circulation system that brings about mild climate in Europe. Climatic changes in this respect could disrupt entire ecosystems as well as agricultural and economic activity. The UNFCCC points out that ―human activities have been substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, that these increases enhance the natural greenhouse effect, and that this will result on average in an additional warming of the Earth's surface and atmosphere and may adversely affect natural ecosystems and Humankind.‖371 Thus, the issues negotiated in the Conference of Parties on the UNFCCC cover all the damages imposed by climate change (i.e., economic cost, environmental disaster, land decrease) and all the methods for its prevention (environmental trade, and knowledge from the many different areas involved). Issues provide background and status information on each item on the agenda of negotiation of the Conference of Parties around the UNFCCC and its subsidiary bodies. Every country‘s climate change policy has to be made around these issues to be included in the UNFCCC and the agreements in the COP.

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Figure 8.1 Different impacts imposed by climate change

371

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, www.unfccc.int, accessed in Jan. 2003.

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These figures illustrate that knowledge from different areas are involved. From the first table, we learn that there are different impacts imposed by climate change. From the second figure, we find many different issues involved in the Conference Parties negotiations372. Based on the two figures, it is believed that the climate change issues are so complicated that knowledge from different areas is needed to support the foreign policy coordination in this area. Besides the issues negotiated in the Conference of Parties, China has to provide a national communications report in the Conference of Parties within three years of the availability of financial resources in accordance with Article 43 in the UNFCCC.

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Figure 8.2 Different issues involved in the Conference Parties negotiations Issues Negotiated in the Conference of Parties373 The Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, based on equity and in Responsibilities to reduce greenhouse accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and gases(GHG) emissions respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects Developing country Parties would have to bear a disproportionate or Equity and justice for reducing GHG abnormal burden under the Convention should be given full consideration. The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, How to reduce GHG emissions prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Sustainable development and The Parties have a right to, and should, promote sustainable capacity building development. Lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for Climate change science postponing the measures to reduce GHG emissions. International scientific cooperation Flexible mechanism for climate ―flexibility mechanisms" - emissions trading, the clean development change mechanism and joint implementation; the rules for measuring sinks; The financial package for developing countries to fund adaptation, Financial assistance capacity building and technology transfer; and compliance provisions for Parties failing to meet their commitments. The imposition of restrictive rules and regulations in GHG Penalties emissions. Taxes and penalties to address climate change in a special briefing to industry representatives today in COP 8374.

www.unfccc.int/cop/ Figure 8.2 Different Issues Involved in the Conference Parties negotiations

Besides the issues negotiated in the Conference of Parties, China has to provide a national communications report in the Conference of Parties within three years of the availability of financial resources in accordance with article 43 in the UNFCCC. National 372

www.unfccc.int http://sd.erl.itri.org.tw/fccc, accessed in April, 2003. 374 http://unfccc.int/cop8/, accessed in Nov., 2003. 373

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Communication Preparation work in China also requires many bureaucracies‘ participation because there is much inter-ministerial work to do, including: (1) To provide the national inventory375 on the resources and ―sink‖ of the greenhouse gases emission; (2) To provide the national measure list on how to implement the UNFCCC in China; (3) Public education on climate change; and (4) capacity building for climate change foreign policy coordination. In the 1990s, Chinese official documents stated, ―China will participate in follow-up negotiation associated with the Climate Change Framework Convention and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and fulfill China's obligations with respect to the convention.‖376 There are three stages for China to join the negotiation in the Conference of Parties (COP) according to the author‘s in-depth interviews.377 The first stage started from 1990 to 1992. The focus of this stage was to determine China‘s attitude and policy toward the UNFCCC. There are two successful policies: first, to design a principle of ―common but differentiated responsibilities‘‘ (It means that China just shares the responsibilities in information communication and scientific research, and has no economic burden or needs to reduce energy immediately); second, to try to strengthen the Scientific and Technology research in the climate change area. China organized thousands of experts from different institutions and bureaucracies to edit the 21st century Agenda of China, in which the principle and strategy toward the UNFCCC are explained378. Mr. Zhang, former director of China‘s 21st century Agenda Administration Center, said it was the first comprehensive knowledge-based foreign policy coordination on climate change in China, and nearly all bureaucracies got involved in it. The second stage began from 1992 to 1997. China began to make ―sustainable development‖ as its national strategy to deal with any issues related to the UNFCCC.379 However, the concept of ―sustainable development‖ is very ambiguous, and Chinese leaders only stressed the ―development,‖ rather than ―sustainable,‖ aspect in foreign policy coordination on climate change.380 The great challenges of issues negotiated in the COP to Chinese policymakers were the Kyoto Protocol381 and trade mechanisms imposed on developing countries such as CDM (Clean Development Mechanism), JI (Joint Implementation), and IET (International Emission Trade).382 China lagged behind in the field of climate science and the economy, and had no clear consensus on international environmental trade mechanisms such as JI, CDM, and IET.383 Some Chinese officials call them the tools of ―environmental imperialism‖ in the internal conference.384 375

The national inventory on the resources and ― carbon sink ‖of the greenhouse gases emission is very necessary, and it includes: (1) energy;(2) the craft process that industry produce;(3) agriculture;(4) forestry;(5) city wastes. 376 See China State Council (ed.): China‘s Agenda 21-White paper on China‘s population, environment, and development in the 21st century,(Beijing: Environmental Science Press), 1994. 377 This part is based on the documents of policy coordination conferences in May 1999 and March 2002. 378 See China State Council (ed.): China‘s Agenda 21-White paper on China‘s population, environment, and development in the 21st century,(Beijing: Environmental Science Press), 1994. 379 See Li Peng, Government Working Report, 1994. 380 See The Ministry of Science & Technology (ed.): the Strategy of Sustainable Development, the part of Introduction, 1996, Commercial Publish., 1996. 381 Eizenstat, Stuart: “Stick with Kyoto-A Sound Start on Global Warming‖, Foreign Affairs,( May/June, 1998)，pp 119-121. 382 Cooper, Richard: ―Toward a Real Global warming Treaty‖, Foreign Affairs,( March/April 1998). 383 See the Ministry of Science & Technology (ed.): The background materials for Premier Zhu Rongji visiting the U.S., 1998. 384 See Liu Jiang, Presentation in the Conference of policy coordination toward the climate change in 1997.

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The third stage ranges from 1997 until now. Chinese policymaking has focused on two points: one is how to accept the Western countries‘ international environmental trade mechanism; the other is preventing developing countries from being forced to assume concrete responsibilities. China did not raise objections to the ―flexibility mechanisms‖ (i.e., emissions trading, joint implementation, and the clean development mechanism). However, in some conditions, China has used a form of passive resistance, articulating a policy of ―no response‖ to some international incidents (i.e., the Bush Administration rejecting the Kyoto Protocol). However, after the Bush Administration exited the Kyoto Protocol to force China to share the concrete responsibilities as soon as possible, the international pressures that China faced with respect to international negotiations become much more than before. In 2000, China put forward the ―no regret‖ policy for the UNFCCC negotiation,385 began to accept the international environmental trade mechanism, and implemented CDM in Gansu and Shanxi Province with the financial assistance of the Asian Development Bank.386 With the assistance of the U.S. Energy Ministry, China also finished its national report on climate change, which is the basis for Chinese national Communications to the UNFCCC.387

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8.2 FOREIGN POLICY COORDINATION ON THE ISSUES NEGOTIATED IN THE CONFERENCE OF PARTIES The book argues that foreign policy coordination on climate change is necessary, and a major problem in climate change policy making is how to get a consensus on issues negotiated in the COP. Because different bureaucracies, to function, must share knowledge on climate change and the UNFCCC among various bureaucracies, so there is no person or bureaucracy who can control all the information or knowledge on the issues to be negotiated in the COP. According to the signal politics model of cognitive context,388 issues negotiated can produce signals, which result in the appearance of foreign policy coordination. At the same time, knowledge based factors in the UNFCCC also contribute to the development of foreign policy coordination. As a reference structure, knowledge is never contained within any one head, but incorporates a number of people together: a community of knowledge, defined by 389 all those who participate in expanding and preserving that knowledge. The author found the necessity and content for foreign policy coordination toward the issues in the COP from one internal official document. It said, ―We should try to adopt the status of the international Conference of Parties‘ negotiation, and make it serve the requirements of domestic economic development.

385

It means that China will share some concrete responsibilities to reduce the GHG emissions without any damage to its economic development. 386 I joined one conference on CDM projects in Gansu province held by Asia Development Bank in March, 2003. 387 Research Team of China Climate Change Country Study: China Climate Change Country Study, (Beijing: Tsinghua University Press), 1998. 388 Karen T. Litfin, Ozone Discourses: Science and Politics in Global Environmental Cooperation, (New York: Columbia University Press), 1994. 389 Ibid.

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Foreign policy coordination toward the negotiation of Conference of Parties has three meanings: the first is to concentrate the most energy in the Conference of Parties‘ (COP) negotiation, and try to win concession favorable to national interests at the international negotiation table; the second is to try to make clear the costs imposed by climate change and the benefits imposed by the UNFCCC, and to strengthen energy, economy and foreign strategy study; and the third is put forth national communications of China, which includes: (1) the national inventory on the resources and ―carbon sink‖ of the greenhouse gases emission; (2) The national measure list on how to implement the UNFCCC in China; (3) Other information on national communications; (4) Public education on climate change; and(5) Capacity building for climate change foreign policy coordination.‖390

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8.2.1 Foreign Policy Coordination Process The foreign policy coordination framework includes two steps: First, the Ministry of Foreign affairs will get the information on the issues negotiated in the Conference of Parties on the UNFCCC. The main issues include scientific and technological advice, impact assessment and response strategies, the capacity and feasibility for the UNFCCC implementation and issues on international law. Then, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will contact different related bureaucracies and distribute these issues negotiated in the COP, and require each group to submit a proposal (Dui An). Mr. Lu, an official in the Ministry of Science and Technology, argues that there should be careful coordination for the coordination on proposals ―Dui An‖; in practice, there are some bureaucracies showing a priority in the proposal chosen, called Window agent (Zhu Guan Danwei or Chuang Kou Danwei). The agent responsible for coordinating China‘s climate change negotiations is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and it is a window agent in choosing the proposals ― Dui An‖. The related bureaucracies who submit the proposals ―Dui An‖ are divided into four groups as follows: Group I: Scientific Assessment, co-chaired by the China Meteorological Administration and Chinese Academy of Sciences. Group II: Impact Assessment and Response Strategies, co-chaired by the Ministry of Science and Technology and the State Environmental Protection Agency. Group III: Economic Implications, co-chaired by the State Development Planning Commission and the State Economic and Trade Commission. Group IV: Issues related to the Convention, co-chaired by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Science and Technology. After the discussion among different groups, every group will provide a proposal (Dui An) for the issues negotiated in the Conferences of Parties. In the foreign policy coordination meeting, the officials and experts from different bureaucracies will exchange their arguments and make some revisions on their proposal (Dui An).

390

Documents of China Commission of Planning and Development: [1999] NO. 442.

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Figure 8.3. The process of foreign policy coordination tward the issues to be negotiated in the conference of parties (COP).

Based on the table above, the book explains the foreign policy coordination process by seeking consensus, bargaining, and final decision-making, as discussed below: First, according to Michael T. Hatch, consensus in climate change policy is also the result of bargaining.391 In this foreign policy coordination process, bargaining means that the various bureaucratic sections bring their proposals (Dui An) to join the foreign policy coordination by communication, consultation and negotiation. The consensus means the outcome of a final proposal for the negotiations in the COP. The final decision-making depends on the foreign policy coordination based on different proposals (Dui An) from different bureaucracies. Second, the role of bargaining in the foreign policy coordination is to act as a framework for communication and as a tool of interpretation for the proposals (Dui An) among different bureaucracies in the same group. It also forms the framework for the final proposals (Dui An) among different groups. The final proposals are built through the process of bargaining on different proposals, which consist of the processes of collective learning and the editing of individual proposals. Collective learning refers to the flow of information or knowledge among different bureaucracies. Editing proposals (Dui An) depend on the special issues, which each bureaucracy should be responsible for. Third, foreign policy coordination for final proposals (Dui An) occurs in a situation, where different bureaucracies have insufficient information and knowledge. The preferences and positions are defined before the collective learning process (refer to the table above), 391

Michael T. Hatch :Domestic Politics and International Negotiations: The Politics of Climate Change in China Paper in the 2001 Berlin Conference on the Human Dimensions of Global

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which is needed for all the actors to have the necessary information and knowledge database for the foreign policy coordination. Dr. Tian, an official in the Environmental Protection Administration, told me the final proposal (Dui An) is generally created in the foreign policy coordination conferences, though many coordination conferences of this kind are usually needed. The author got some proposals of 2002 (Dui An) from my interviews. The proposal (dui an) from the Environmental Protection Administration (some details are not open) mainly focuses on the analysis of and response to the development of climate change science and politics, including: The proposal (Dui An) from the Ministry of Science and Technology mainly focuses on the study on the mechanisms to control the GHG emissions (CDM, IET, and JI), and some macro-economic analyses on China‘s climate change policy. The proposal (Dui An) from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs mainly focusing on the conflicts mainly happens among these country groups: 1. Umbrella Group (the U.S., Japan and Australia); 2. European Union; 3. Group of 77 and China; 4. The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). The Committee of Reforming and Development pay attention to the comprehensive research of climate change in its proposals. Many of their proposals (Dui An) intercross and intersect. Herewith, the foreign policy coordination is necessary. According to Dr. Tian in Environmental Protection Administration and Dr. Zhou in Ministry of Science and Technology, these proposals are transformed into a final proposal for COP conference in New Delhi 2002. In that conference, China ratified the Kyoto Protocol, and won a lot of applaud in the world.

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8.2.2 The Characteristics of Foreign Policy Coordination on Issues Negotiated in the COP Considering the question on the main ways to know about climate change and the UNFCCC among 40 people (multi-choices), 28 people believed joining foreign policy coordination work improves their knowledge of climate change. Some people even told the author that there are no benefits for foreign policy coordination except learning some information.392 A means international norms in the UNFCCC; B means international training or overseas study; C means joining the foreign policy coordination work; D means daily work and study Considering the question if the foreign policy coordination on climate change strengthens the information communications and learning from each other, most people concerned gave me positive answers. Among 40 people who answered this question, 31 people thought it very important or important. Only five people thought it did not matter. A means the very important role; B means important role; C means not important role; D means that it does not play any role; E means not clear.

392

Based on my interviews.

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28

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Figure 8.5. The questionnaires if the foreign policy coordination on climate change strengthens the information communications and learning from each other.

Based on the questionnaires, I conclude that because of their access to specialized knowledge for one bureaucracy and because some bureaucracies are uniquely situated to place certain issues on the UNFCCC, they have to share the information and learn the knowledge from the foreign policy coordination process toward the issues negotiated in the COP. Thus, this foreign policy coordination process is both an information communication process and a learning process. According to Mr. Ma, an official in the Committee of Planning and Development, climate change is a human activity in different areas (i.e. energy industry, agriculture planning, and communications) and has to be prevented through the cooperation among different bureaucracies. Every bureaucracy does some special work related to the climate change and the UNFCCC. In this regard, learning and communicating with each other is very important.

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First, this foreign policy coordination process is an information communication process because every bureaucracy can get the information it lacks from others. For example, one official in the Ministry of Science and Technology told me that he could get the necessary database from the China Meteorological Administration before he works out the proposal (Dui An) for the COP negotiations. At the same time, the brief report on the COP negotiations and climate change are distributed to all the bureaucracies to strengthen the information communications and learning from each other. Second, this foreign policy coordination process is a learning process. Since climate change is a very complicated issue, policymakers may be awestruck by many technical languages in the UNFCCC, leading them to learn from other related bureaucracies. An official in the Committee of Planning said that his major concern is not related to the climate change science. However, he improves a lot through the work in the foreign policy coordination office over these years. Mr. Lu, an official in the Ministry of Science and Technology, told me that he knew the CDM much better than any other officials393 because he had organized the foreign policy coordination work for more than 5 years. Third, this foreign policy coordination process is a learning process from aboard. According to Mr. Yi in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, opinions of ―international experts‘ are always taken into account in making China‘s climate change policy, we even send people to some developing countries to learn about their experience in making climate change policy.‖ Elizabeth Economy argues that the transmission of new ideas and knowledge can contribute to the learning process and to the changes in behavioral norms by domestic actors.394 According to Pearson, the transmission of new ideas can affect Chinese policymaking.395 The climate change is a very complicated issue area. Many mechanisms to reduce the GHG emissions are put forward by the foreign experts and negotiated in the COP like CDM, IET and JI. Without learning new ideas and knowledge from aboard, China will not have enough knowledge to make any policy response in the UNFCCC negotiation. For example, China has to show a ―no voice‖ (Bu Biao Tai) attitude toward the CDM from 1997 to 2000 because of many scientific and economic uncertainties among related officials. In the documents prepared for Premier Zhu Rongji‘s visit to the U.S., the climate change officials advised Zhu Rongji not to show any comments on the CDM, in which Vice-President Gore showed a great interest. Making China‘s national communications is the main responsibility, which China shares according to article 4.3 in the UNFCCC. Several bureaucracies related to climate change should make numerous inter-ministerial efforts such as: (1) National Circumstances analysis, (2)Development priorities for climate change, (3)Country‘s specific concerns on Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory, (4)General description of measures for climate change, (5)Direct national effort, and (6)Related national effort for Climate Change Vulnerability Adaptation and Mitigation. Thus, making China‘s national communications is also a complex and 393

Clean Development mechanism, a hot issue in COP negotiation. Elizabeth Economy: The impact of international regimes on China‘s foreign policy-making: Broading perspectives and policies but only to a point, In David Lampton (ed.), the Making of Chinese Foreign and security Policy in the Era of Reform 1978-2000, (Stanford, California: Stanford University Press, 2001),pp 236257. 395 Margaret M. Pearson: The Major Multilateral economic Institutions Engage China, in Alistair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross(ed.): Engaging China: the management of an emerging power, (London ; New York : Routledge, 1999). 394

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systematic coordination process. In order to make the national communications, only in 2002, China held 18 workshops attended by more than 612 people; six special topic conference attended by185 people; 10 training classes taken by 385 people. There are several international training activities and workshops in the meantime. In studying foreign policy coordination on climate change, this book also finds that the knowledge and perception of interests in climate change policy making also determine the different attitudes of different bureaucracies who join the foreign policy coordination. Samuel S. Kim argues that Chinese foreign policy is seen as the one outcome of a continuing interplay between decision-makers‘ perceptions of interests and their perceptions of responses to international material pressures.396 Mai Aimin, an official on the Committee of Development and Planning, admits that some related bureaucracies lack the knowledge of climate change, and show little interest in it; however, the Committee of Development and Planning and the Ministry of Science and Technology have the capability of doing research and showing great interest in it. Dr. Wang, an official in the State Environmental Protection Administration, also argues that the State Environmental Protection and some other bureaucracies only do some translation work on climate change, and show an inactive attitude toward climate change. He also points out that no head of State Environmental Protection made any comments on climate change in public in recent years. From the discussion above, knowledge-based factors are particularly evident in determining the foreign policy coordination in the case of UNFCCC. The systematic, complex and flexible climate change regime - the UNFCCC- rise from the climate change science and human collective action. In the foreign policy coordination process, the knowledge-based characteristics of the UNFCCC keep any single bureaucracy from having a monopoly of all the information and knowledge, and force them to share related knowledge and learn from each other or from those aboard. Different bureaucracies should be attentive to any specific climate change issues when various knowledge and information from different aspects affect their behaviors in foreign policy coordination. In addition to it, knowledge and perception of interests in climate change policy will determine the different attitudes of the related bureaucracies who join the foreign policy coordination.

8.2.3 International Norms on Foreign Policy Coordination in China With the development of the globalization and the international regimes, scholars more and more emphasize the influence of knowledge-based factors on policymaking.397 Referring to the field of environmental regimes, Miranda A. Schreurs and Elizabeth Economy argue that international norms for the global environment are emerging, and they change policy-

396

397

Samuel S. Kim: China and World: Chinese Foreign Policy faces the new millennium, Westview Press, 1998,page 23. Peter J. Katzenstein :The culture of national security Norms and identity in world politics, (New York: Columbia University Press, 1996). Kratochwil, Friedrich V., and John Gerard Ruggie: International Organization: A State of the Art on an Art of the State. International Organization 40:753-75.

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making processes at national and regional levels, while sub-state politics continues to influence strongly the nature of national response to international environmental problems398. Based on my field work in Beijing, besides the issues negotiated in the COP, there are two other knowledge-based factors (i.e., international training, international norms) which affect the foreign policy coordination of China toward the UNFCCC, though their role should not be exaggerated and the influence of international training and norms on policy makers is limited. In the text of China‘s 21st Agenda, we can see that international norms and training may explain Chinese policy toward the UNFCCC: “China will work to strengthen international cooperation in climate research, promote international academic exchanges, and the timely collection of global climatic data. China will work to learn about scientific and technological development trends abroad, and introduce advanced foreign science and technology to China.”399 From the table below, we can see that international norms (acquired from international negotiation) and international training also play some roles in climate change foreign policy coordination, though not so much as the foreign policy coordination work. 28

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Figure 8.6. The determinant factors in climate change foreign policy coordination.

A international norms in the UNFCCC; B means international training or overseas study; C means joining the foreign policy coordination work; D means daily work and study Elizabeth Economy stresses the role of international training in changing China‘s policy toward the UNFCCC. However, my fieldwork shows international training plays a minor role. There are two reasons for that: first, all the officials related to the UNFCCC are too busy to attend any international training programs.400 From the table above, we can also see that only five people attended related international training programs. Second, the effectiveness of the international training is not good.401 Mr. Chu, a professor in Tsinghua University, argues 398

Miranda A. Schreurs and Elizabeth Economy: The Internationalization of Environmental Protection, (New York: Cambridge University), 1997.p. 3. China‘s State Council(ed.):China’s Agenda 21-White paper on China’s population, environment, and development in the 21st century,(Beijing: Environmental Science Press), 1994. 400 Based on my interviews. 401 Based on my interviews. 399

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that many officials only waste time and energy and have not learned many things from international training programs. Concerning what role international training plays in foreign policy coordination in climate change, most people think that it is only helpful for the improvement of related knowledge, but five people think that it is only helpful for understanding the UNFCCC.

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Figure 8.7. Foreign training‘s role in foreign policy coordination in China.

A understand the UNFCCC; B improve relative knowledge; C clarify our national interests in the UNFCCC. Thus, my discussion on knowledge-based factors will focus on the international norms. Elizabeth Economy also argues that international regimes and the process of establishing international regimes may influence China‘s behavior because the transmission of new ideas and knowledge from the international community can contribute to the learning process and to change in behavioral norms by domestic actors.402 Professor Zhou in Renmin University argues that the norms of Chinese officials have changed a lot over these years. According to Professor Zhou, a senior negotiator in the UNFCCC, when he came back from the U.S. with a PH.D in 1997, he contacted the official who is in charge of the UNFCCC in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and asked them what he could do for China‘s climate change policy. The officials in the MOFA told him that policy in the UNFCCC is the affairs of state and that he better stand aside. However, after 2000, the MOFA invited him to attend the foreign policy coordination meeting in the UNFCCC and work as a negotiator in the conference of parties. The related international norms in the UNFCCC are as follows: “Acknowledging that change in the Earth's climate and its adverse effects are a common concern of humankind, Acknowledging that the global nature of climate 402

Elizabeth Economy: The impact of international regimes on China‘s foreign policy-making: Broading perspectives and policies but only to a point, In David Lampton(ed.), the Making of Chinese Foreign and security Policy in the Era of Reform 1978-2000., (Stanford, California, Stanford University 2001).pp 236.

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change calls for the widest possible cooperation by all countries and their participation in an effective and appropriate international response, in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities and their social and economic conditions, Determined to protect the climate system for present and future generations. ” According to the Marrakech Agreements of the UNFCCC, every country should “Strengthen existing and, where needed, establishing national climate change coordination institution or focal points to enable the effective implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate change.” Katzenstein argues that the concepts of international norms refer to collective expectations for the proper behavior of actors with a given identity. Norms thus either define (or constitute) identities or prescribe (or regulate) behaviors, or they do both.403 Thus, ―Every country should strengthen foreign policy coordination and prevent global warming‖ as a norm in the UNFCCC. It has both constitutive and regulative aspects,404 and besides that, it can affect the interaction between the interests and knowledge. First, regarding the constitutive aspects, the international struggle against Global Warming can shape Chinese bureaucratic identity. By international negotiations, education and training, Chinese decision-makers can learn and treat China as a responsible country in the international struggle against Global Warming. According to observers of Chinese foreign policy, China views itself as a major world power, which means that it wants to be seen as a responsible and constructive international citizen in obeying international norms.405 In my fieldwork, many officials believe that China is a great power and keeps its promises very seriously toward the UNFCCC. Second, regarding the regulative aspects, if China‘s policy makers are uncomfortable with norms of the international struggle against Global Warming, China will not be treated as a responsible player who can regulate its behavior. One official told me that the international opinions that ―If China does not reduce GHG emissions, neither do I‖ make him feel a great pressure.406 Third, the argument that norms and interests are mutually interactive is most effectively demonstrated through my fieldwork. International norms make the bureaucracies think it necessary to join in foreign policy coordination with other bureaucracies on the UNFCCC. International norms of the UNFCCC are vital in revealing, shaping, and revising different bureaucracies‘ conceptions of their own interests. It can also modify the behavior of bureaucracies through reshaping the perception of its section interests toward the UNFCCC. In bureaucratic politics, China builds policy institutions according to the UNFCCC, and most bureaucracies show some incentives to work according to the requirements in the UNFCCC. From the table below, we can see how international norms affect the foreign policy coordination in China: 403

Peter J. Katzenstein: The culture of national security Norms and identity in world politics, (New York: Columbia University Press, 1996),pp. 12-31. 404 Alexander Wendt: Social Theory of International Politics, (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1999). 405 Johnston Alastair Iain. 1998. "China and International Environmental Institutions: A Decision Rule Analysis." in McElroy, Nielsen, and Lydon, eds. Leggett, Jeremy ed.: Global Warming: The Greenpeace Report. (Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 1998). 406 According to my interviews with Zhou Hailin, a official in the Ministry of Science & Technology.

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Figure 8.8. How international norms affect the foreign policy cordination in China

Criticism of China‘s policy and behavior in the UNFCCC impose pressure on China to learn and observe the international norms. Chinese leaders are concerned about projecting an image of a responsible major power. China is particularly sensitive to external criticism of its policy and behavior in international regimes, and would go out of its way to avoid diplomatic and international censure407. Mr. Huang, a senior official in the Ministry of Science and Technology, told the author much international criticism imposed a great pressure on China to share the concrete responsibilities in the UNFCCC. Thus, international norms show some positive effect in foreign policy coordination behavior in the international struggle against Global Warming. In the end, international normative factors will play a more important role in Chinese behavior. According to Wendt, ―State act towards objects, including each other, on the basis of the meanings those objects have for them.‖408 Through joining the UNFCCC, the norm that China is a responsible member affects the development of foreign policy coordination.

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8.3 CONCLUSIONS By testing the role of the issues negotiated in the conference of parties (COP), and some normative factors in the UNFCCC in foreign policy coordination in China, I find that knowledge-based factors from the UNFCCC show a positive effect on foreign policy coordination on climate change in China. Besides, the author finds some different conclusion from traditional Chinese policymaking theory. The first is concerned with the concept of ―bargaining.‖ Lampton argues that bargaining processes are central to interactions with foreigners.409 From the discussion above, this book believes that the bargaining based on knowledge is important for foreign policy coordination in China. According to Lampton, most Chinese individuals and organizations must agree or acquiesce before one gets action. A complex bargaining process and the need to build a consensus (Tong Yi Kou Jing) thus often hamstring Chinese decision systems. However, the bureaucratic division of labor changes the characteristics of bargaining under some 407

According to my interviews. Alexander Wednt: ―Collective Identity Formation and the international State‖, American Political Science Review, 88.2, 384-396. 409 David Lampton: ―A plum for a peach: bargaining, Interest, and Bureaucratic politics in China‖, in Kenneth G. Lieberthal and David Lampton (ed.): Bureaucracy, politics, and decision making in Post-Mao China,(Berkely: University of California Press, 1992). 408

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conditions. The sections with monopoly knowledge and the authority of central government behind them in some fields take priority over policy-making in that field. These sections could be called core sections at the foreign policy coordination level. These core sections at the coordination level get their priorities in two ways: one is the configuration of the State Council; the other is unique knowledge and capacity building. The later is very important. For example, the Ministry of Agriculture holds unique knowledge and very strong capacity in the climate change issue, and it gets priority in bargaining on climate change policy, but the Authority of Environmental Protection seems to have few voices in foreign policy coordination on climate change because it lacks knowledge and capacity building. Furthermore, contrary to the arguments of Peter Hass410, though much bargaining focuses on international funds (GEF) and technology transfers, international professionals and intergovernmental agencies must not get involved in bargaining among different sections. These international epistemic communities have so few influences in foreign policy coordination in China. The second is about the role of knowledge-based experts in their final decision-making. According to Peter Hass, knowledge-based experts play an important role in complex problems of common national and global concern411. In the UNFCCC negotiations, domestic knowledge-based experts from different bureaucracies propose specific policy prescriptions and identify salient issues and problems for foreign policy coordination. ―When an epistemic community grows and expands in size and strength, its shared understanding and shared concern becomes the key to its ability to participate in and frame policymaking for the international regimes.‖412 Susan Shirk argues that the Chinese government bureaucracy makes final decisions according to the decision rules characteristic of "management by exception"413 in order to be engaged in consensus building.414 In the book of ―Ozone Discourses Science and Politics in the Global Environmental Cooperation Ozone layer‖415, Litfin argues that knowledge decides policymaking.416.Based on that argument, when top leaders are faced with some confusing scientific knowledge (i.e., GHG leads to Global warming), they would seek assistance from professionals from different areas. Then, the model of management by exception function is replaced by another alternative: management by expert coordination, which means that if the bureaucrats cannot reach consensus (Tong Yi Kou Jing), then the decision is referred to the experts in this field, and they work out final policy together. For example, the final decision on the international Ozone layer policy depended on seven experts from the Chinese Science Academy, Tsing Hua University, etc. 410

Peter M. Haas: “Epistemic Communities and International Policy Coordination”,in International Organization, Vol.46, 1989. 411 Ibid. 412 Ibid. 413 It means that at each level of the organizational hierarchy, agency representatives make decisions by a rule of consensus. If they all agree, the decision is automatically ratified by the higher level. If the bureaucrats cannot reach consensus, then the decision is referred to the higher levels, and if the higher levels cannot agree, then either nothing happens or the ultimate principal, the Communist Party, intervenes to impose a solution 414 Susan Shirk: ―The Chinese Political System and the political Strategy for economic reform‖, in Kenneth G. Lieberthal and David Lampton (ed.): Bureaucracy, politics, and decision making in Post-Mao China,(Berkeley: University of California Press), 1992, page 256. 415 Karen T. Litfin: Ozone Discourses: Science and Politics in Global Environmental Cooperation, (New York: Columbia University Press, 1994). 416 Ibid.

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Thus, the final decision always could not be made at the higher level but in the foreign policy coordination level from different bureaucracies and through the bargaining based on knowledge because the higher levels cannot cope with such complicated professional issues as climate change according to Dr. Tian in the Bureaucracy of Environmental Protection. In some situations when all bureaucracies related to the foreign policy coordination lack enough knowledge and have uncertainties on some issues toward the UNFCCC, China also shows a ―no voice‖ or ―no response‖ attitude (Bu Biao Tai) in the international arena. For example, before 1997 when China had not a clear understanding on the GHG emissions trade mechanism of the UNFCCC (CDM, IET, and JI417), it chose the strategy of ―no voice‖ (Bu Biao Tai) in a COP conference on these mechanisms. When Premier Zhu Rongji visited the U.S. in 1999, he told Vice President Gore that these mechanisms are so complicated that China only planned to strengthen the scientific study and improve its understanding, but not to deploy them with the U.S.

417

United Nations: Report of the Conference of the Parties on its Fourth Session, held at Kyoto from 1 to 11 December 1997, FCCC/CP, 1997；United Nations: Report of the Conference of the Parties on its Fourth Session, Held at Buenos Aires from 2 to 14 November 1998, FCCC/CP, 1998；UNCTAD: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Combating Global Warming: Possible Rules, Regulations and Administrative Arrangements for a Global Market in CO2 Emissions Entitlements, 1994.

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Chapter 9

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DOMESTIC INSTITUTIONS BASED EXPLANATION FOR ENVIRONMENTAL DIPLOMACY Miranda Schreurs and Elizabeth Economy argue that the internationalization of environmental policy formation is not just a matter of a state responding to the emergence of new kinds of problems or new ways of viewing old ones418. The internationalization of environmental politics also reflects the efforts by international actors and institutions to reach down into the state to set the domestic policy agenda and influence the policy formation and implementation processes. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - an international environmental regime also influences the related foreign policy coordination institution in China, and determines the emergence and transformation of it. Elizabeth Economy also argues that the requirements of the regime result in new domestic actors, new bureaucratic arrangements, or the new bureaucratic linkages that influence policy outcome and international regimes spur the emergence of new domestic institutions to manage China‘s involvement in the regimes and encourage the introduction of new actors.419 In the book, a domestic institution refers to the relatively stable mechanism to define the appropriate behavior and relations among different bureaucracies in China related to climate change policy making. In this part, the book focuses on the China National Coordination Committee for Climate as the domestic institution, and discusses the UNFCCC‘s influences for its creation, its mechanisms, and development.

418

419

Miranda A. Schreurs and Elizabeth Economy: The Internationalization of Environmental Protection, (New York: Cambridge University, 1997), pp 1-10. Elizabeth Economy: The impact of international regimes on China‘s foreign policy-making Broading perspectives and policies but only to a point, In David Lampton(ed.), the Making of Chinese Foreign and security Policy in the Era of Reform 1978-2000., (Stanford, California, Stanford University 2001), pp 236-257.

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9.1 THE UNFCCC AS THE DETERMINANT FACTOR FOR THE CREATION OF FOREIGN POLICY COORDINATION IN CHINA On 11 December 1990, the 45th session of the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution that established the intergovernmental negotiating committee for a framework convention on climate change (INC/FCCC). Supported by UNEP and WMO, the mandate of the INC/FCCC was to prepare an effective framework convention on climate change. The INC held five sessions between February 1991 and May 1992. During these meetings, participants from over 150 states discussed the difficult and contentious issues of binding commitments, targets and timetables for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, financial mechanisms, technology transfer, and "common but differentiated" responsibilities of developed and developing countries. The UNFCCC was adopted on 9 May 1992, and opened for signature at the UN Conference on Environment and Development in June 1992 in Rio, where it received 155 signatures, including China‘s. China People's Congress Council ratified the UNFCCC in November 1992. China has joined the foundation and negotiation of the UNFCCC since 1990. In the first Rio World Summit, China‘s former Premier Li Peng signed the UNFCCC. In the 2002 Second World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, China‘s former Premier, Zhu Rongji, ratified the Kyoto Protocol. Since 1991, China has built a foreign policy coordination institution composed of 13 bureaucracies. Before 1998, China Meteorological Administration was in charge of most related climate foreign policy coordination. After the China State Council‘s institutional reconfiguration in 1998, China tried to improve the capacity of foreign policy coordination on climate change 420, and transfer most responsibilities to the Ministry of Development and Planning (named Ministry of Reforming and Development after 2003). Jiang Weixin states, ―China continues its efforts together with the international community to deal with global climate change under the framework of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol‖421. Based on the fieldwork, I found that the UNFCCC is a determinant variable in induce China to make responsible, comprehensive and coordinative policy against climate change through the related foreign policy coordination institutions. First, the effectiveness of the UNFCCC depends on Chinese responsible involvement because of its huge GHG emission and increase. As China‘s GHG emissions rank second in the World, and it is the biggest developing country, it cannot act as a laggard in the UNFCCC. The goal of the UNFCCC will fail without China reducing its GHG emissions. Second, all the developing countries (Group 77) hope China protects the developing countries‘ interests in the negotiation of the UNFCCC. Due to differences between developing and developed countries in their economic development levels as well as their political objectives, there is a serious divergence of opinion between them on reducing the greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, China, as the main head of ―Group77 plus China,‖ should try to protect all developing countries‘ development rights and the principle of ―common but differentiated‖ in the COP.

420 421

Administration is much lower than Ministry in China‘s power configuration. Jiang Weixin: presentation in the Cop8, Remin Daily, Nov., 2002.

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In the National 21st Century Agenda, China‘s Sustainable Development and National Economic Plan from 9th to 10th 5 years, the Chinese government makes positive promises related to the UNFCCC. However, as discussed in previous chapters, there are many linkage issues in the UNFCCC negotiation, including responsibilities to reduce greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, equity and justice for reducing GHG, how to reduce GHG emissions, sustainable development and capacity building, climate change science, financial mechanisms, etc. It is clear that a single bureaucracy could not handle the complex issues of the UNFCCC. Because bureaucracies, to function, must divide knowledge, resources and policymaking authority among various departments, (i.e. program, human resources, investments, communications) there is no one person who can coordinate and control all of the actions taken by the foundation unit422. Thus, foreign policy coordination is necessary. This is particularly evident in the climate change case where complexity of climate change prevents any single bureaucracy from making all-important decisions. Many Chinese bureaucracies have to get involved in foreign policy coordination toward achieving the objectives of the UNFCCC and their work policies are built on the goal of coordinative development of environment, economy, and society through inter-ministerial coordination, and in the context of a national plan.423 China‘s National Plan for Economic and Social Development, an inter-ministerial working agenda for every five years, stipulates the working contents for inter-ministerial foreign policy coordination in many aspects. With reference to the UNFCCC, in the inter-ministerial implementation of the ninth five-year plan for National Economic and Social Development, China became a protagonist in the UNFCCC, joined the negotiations and conferences for environmental regime building of the UNFCCC, and ratified the UNFCCC as the first ten countries424. In the preparation of the tenth five-year plan for National Economic and Social Development, it said, China should take an active part in international environmental cooperation and development, share the responsibilities, and make policy against climate change through inter-ministerial coordination.‖ In my interviews with the officials related with the UNFCCC, most of them attribute the level of foreign policy coordination to the great demands and pressures of the UNFCCC negotiation. A: national concerns, B: international organizations (UNEP, etc.) C: the working principles of the state council, D: demand of climate change negotiation (one official choose ―international environment‖).

422

Allison, Graham: ―Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis‖, American Political Science Review, 1969, Vol. LXIII, No. 3. 423 Cai Shouqiu: China‘s Environmental Policy, Environment and Protection, (Feb., 1998). 424 Report on the ninth ten year National plan for Economic and Social development, China’s Market Economy, April 3rd, 2002.

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31

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25 20

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D

Figure 9.1. The factors that promote foreign policy coordination on the UNFCCC (multi-choices).

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Moreover, the UNFCCC requires every party to improve its foreign policy coordination capacity. According to such UN documents as the UNFCCC/CP/1995 - UNFCCC/CP/2001/, we can find national communication and national coordination regimes are very important terms in the UNFCCC and agreements (Kyoto Protocol). Referring to foreign policy coordination, the Marrakech Accords in November 2001 said that: “National coordinating mechanisms and focal points and national coordinating entities have an important role to play in ensuring coordination at the country and regional levels and may serve as the focal point for coordinating capacity-building activities” (a) Strengthening existing and, where needed, establishing national climate change coordination institution or focal points to enable the effective implementation of the Convention and effective participation in the Kyoto Protocol process, including preparation of national communications (b) Developing an integrated implementation Programme which takes into account the role of research and training in capacity building In implementing this framework, developing country Parties should promote the coordination and sustainability of activities undertaken within this Framework (UNFCCC), including the efforts of national coordinating mechanisms, focal points, and national coordinating entities” In the meantime, China‘s officials from different bureaucracies have also shown a great interest in the UNFCCC regime building because it makes China return to the world and gain the honors from top leaders. As we know, China became very isolated in the world arena after the ―Tiananmen Incident‖ in 1989. International environmental collective action, focused on sustainable development, ozone layer depletion, and climate change, allowed China to make breakthroughs in returning to the world as a responsible and normal country. Chinese top leaders are very glad to see Chinese environmental activities win them much international goodwill. For example, Premier Li Peng won an environmental protection award from the UNEP in Rio in 1992 at the height of China‘s international condemnation.425 After that, Qu 425

www.unep.int

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Geping, Director of Environmental Bureaucracies, got a quick promotion. This situation encouraged Chinese officials to seek some achievements in international environmental protection. For example, in the earlier 1990s, the Ministry of Science and Technology began to get involved in environmental issues, and was dominated in the area of sustainable development, instead of China‘s Environmental Protection Authority. Referring to the issues of the UNFCCC, many bureaucracies hoped to get involved in making some achievements. In my interviews with officials from 14 participating departments, most of them argued that the UNFCCC is as important as the WTO, and their own bureaucracies should be strengthened in capacity building toward the UNFCCC. Based on the above considerations, China decided to play a responsible and significant role in all related environmental regimes, including the UNFCCC negotiations. The related bureaucracies also show a very serious and coordinative attitude toward the UNFCCC. In the Johannesburg Summit 2002, Premier Zhu Rongji argued，―UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol

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are an important embodiment of the common wish and interests of the international community on the issue of global climate change. The ratification of the Kyoto protocol as well as its effective implementation is a task to be achieved by the international community. China will continue its efforts together with the international community to deal with global climate change under the framework of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol”.426 According to Economy‘s argument, the requirements of the regime may result in the proliferation of new domestic actors or the establishment of new bureaucratic linkages that will influence policy outcomes, and regimes often provide training opportunities, financial transfers, and technological advances that enable policy change.427 Foreign policy coordination is a central problem in China‘s climate change policy, and in the 1990s, as the focus of the international climate change discussions progressed from scientific debate to formal international political negotiations; China built and improved its foreign policy coordination institution.

9.2 THE DOMESTIC INSTITUTIONS FOR THE UNFCCC In 1990, a "National Group of Co-ordination on Climate Change", the multi-agency national Coordination Panel on Climate Change, established, co-ordinated ministries and Government agencies in their efforts to address climate change. It was established under the chair of State councilor Song Jian in 1992. The China Meteorological Administration was designated as the lead agency, with the office of the Climate Change Coordinating Group beneath it428. The National Group of Co-ordination on Climate Change has worked mainly on meteorological science and climate change‘s impact on China. Its four working groups deal with scientific assessment; impact assessment and response strategies; economic implication; 426

http://www.un.org/jsummit/ Elizabeth Economy: ―The impact of international regimes on China‘s foreign policy-making : Broading perspectives and policies but only to a point‖, In David Lampton(ed.), the Making of Chinese Foreign and security Policy in the Era of Reform 1978-2000., (Stanford, California: Stanford University Press, 2001), pp 236. 428 Lester, Ross: ―China: Environmental Protection, Domestic Policy Trends, Patterns of Participation in Regimes and Compliance with International Norms‖, the China Quarterly, 1998,pp818. 427

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and matters related to the Convention. After China joined in the negotiation of the UNFCCC, the main responsibilities for the UNFCCC negotiation had been split between the Ministry of Science and Technology, Ministry of Energy, State Meteorological Administration, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs. China tried to take a more prominent position at the Rio UNFCCC. Soon after its adoption, the National Group of Co-ordination on Climate Change prepared a draft analysis of the UNFCCC‘s impact on China in July 1992. The office convened representatives of responsible agencies - notably the State Science and Technology Commission, the Ministry of Energy, the Environmental Protection Authority, China Meteorological Administration, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs - to draft a document analyzing China‘s obligations and assigning responsibility for the various components to different agencies. After China ratified the UNFCCC and attended the Conference of Parties negotiations, the main issues that China confronts have become more and more complex. These include issues relating to politics, the economy, trade and science. Thus, it was obvious that the China Meteorological Administration lacked the ability to coordinate different bureaucracies related to the UNFCCC, through the ―National Group of Co-ordination on Climate Change" which was an informal institution to cope with the climate change science issues. Thus, with the reconfiguration of the Chinese State Council in the mid-1990s, China established the National Coordination Committee for Climate Change. It was very necessary, and the right time, to build a foreign policy coordination institution like the National Group of Co-ordination on Climate Change and China‘s National Coordination Committee for Climate Change. They can make different bureaucracies work on a coordination panel to make climate change policy and cope with the negotiations on UNFCCC after 1992. In my questionnaires with 43 experts and officials related to the climate change policy, all of them agree that it is necessary to build a foreign policy coordination institution.

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40 35

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30 25 20 15

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Figure 9.2. The evaluation on the foundation of foreign policy coordination on climate change Institution. A: very necessary B: necessary C: unnecessary D: else

The China National Coordination Committee for Climate is formally built to deal with any policy issues related to the global struggle against global warming (i.e., formulating policies, programs, and coordinating scientific research). Its missions include: (1) to improve

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China‘s capability to implement the UNFCCC, and provide the national communications and other documents as the UNFCCC required; (2) to improve China‘s capability to learn and coordinate toward climate change; (3) to contribute to Chinese sustainable development under the situation of climate change; and (4) to seek national interests in international negotiation in the UNFCCC. The Committee, chaired by the Committee of Development and Planning (Committee of Reforming and Development in 2003), includes 14 participating departments: Committee of Development and Planning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Science and Technology, State Economic and Trade Commission, China Meteorological Administration, Ministry of Finance, State Environmental Protection Administration, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Communications, Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Construction, State Forestry Administration, State Oceanic Administration and Chinese Academy of Sciences. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Ministry of Science and Technology, State Meteorological Administration, the Ministry of Finance, State Environmental Protection Administration, and the Ministry of Agriculture are the vice heads of this committee (Fu Zu Zhang Dan Wei). The other bureaucracies (i.e., State Economic and Trade Commission, Ministry of Communications, Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Construction, State Forestry Administration, State Oceanic Administration and Chinese Academy of Sciences) do not play an important role in this committee. The figure below shows the structure of the China National Coordination Committee for Climate Change.429

Figure 9.3. The structure of the China National Coordination Committee for Climate Change

There are four coordination groups under the China National Coordination Committee for Climate:

429

www.ccchina.gov

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Figure 9.4. Details on four working groups of China National Coordination Committee for Climate.

The Climate Change Coordination Office is set up in the Committee of Reform and Development, and it is in charge of daily issues in uniting the principles and status for China‘s climate change policy. There are five main responsibilities for the climate change coordination office: first, to cope with international negotiations for global warming, while trying to protect national interest and sovereignty, by providing a coordination project based on the consensus of different bureaucracies and institutions; second, to do a systematic strategy study on energy and an economic development study in respect of global climate changes; third, to arrange the conferences of China National Coordination Committee for Climate; fourth, to prepare national communications; and fifth, to support the activities of the four coordination groups. Lu Ning argues that the Chinese political system is known for its heavy reliance on meetings and official documents to build policy consensus and to ensure foreign policy coordination.431 The China National Coordination Committee always holds a conference twice a year just before and after the Conference of Parties. The documents in June 2000 showed that the conference content included: 1. the Ministry of Foreign Affairs provides some knowledge on international climate change regime negotiation, and informs conferees of the main issues and China‘s main strategy in the next international COP negotiation. 2. China Meteorological Administration working on progress of the IPCC (Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change). 3. China Ministry of Development and Planning reports on the working progress of China National Coordination Committee for Climate. 4. to discuss the next working plan of the China National Coordination Committee for Climate. 430

Based on my Interviews with Li Liyan, director in Development Planning Commission. And Wang Wenyuan, official in China Science Academy; and LV Xuedu, Official from the Ministry of Science and Technology. 431 Lu Ning: The Dynamics of Foreign-policy Decision-making in China,(Boulder: Westview Press), 2000,pp 25.

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9.3 THE WORKING PROCEDURES OF THE CHINA NATIONAL COORDINATION COMMITTEE FOR CLIMATE According to Li Liyan, an official in the Committee of Planning and Development, the main working procedures of the China National Coordination Committee for Climate are first, to discuss important issues in climate change; second, to coordinate different climate change policies and activities among different bureaucracies; third, to cope with the Conference of Parties; fourth, interministerial policy-making in the climate change area. And fifth, the outcome of consensus in climate change policy.432 The responsibilities for the different bureaucracies and the working procedures are clearly and definitely regulated. Most policies are the outcome of foreign policy coordination among different bureaucracies. The foreign policy coordination process can be explained from the figure below.

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Figure 9.5. Foreign policy coordination in the China National Coordination Committee

According to the chart above, there are four stages for foreign policy coordination: (1) to make independent proposals or decisions; (2) the communication and consultation stage; (3) the interministerial search for consensus process; and (4) to make final decisions. In the first stage, different bureaucracies design individual policy within their own policy domain. For example, the Ministry of Science and Technology deals with coordinating technology projects on climate change. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is the ―window agency‖ in charge of the international negotiation on the UNFCCC. The Ministry of Finance is the ―window agency‖ on the communications with the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) and deals with the financial support project implementation in China. The State Environmental Protection Administration and the State Meteorological Administration cope with the climate change science. The Ministry of Agriculture deals with the science of climate change and implements public education on climate change. In the second stage, communication and consultation with other bureaucracies arise. This stage is a two-way information and knowledge exchange process as discussed in chapter 5. Different bureaucracies keep each other up to date about what issues are airings in the UNFCCC negotiation and how they propose to act in their own areas. Reliable and accepted channels of regular communication must exist. As well as informing other bureaucracies of 432

Based on my Interviews with Li Liyan, director in Development Planning Commission. and Wang Wenyuan, official in China Science Academy; and LV Xuedu, Official from the Ministry of Science and Technology.

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what they are doing, individual bureaucracies consult other bureaucracies in the process of formulating their own policies, or position. From the questionnaires below, I find that most officials and experts concerned agree that foreign policy coordination improves communications among related bureaucracies.

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Figure 9.6. The questionnaires on whether foreign policy coordination improves communications among different bureaucracies. A: very much B: common C. little D. no E. not clear

In the third stage, there occurs an interministerial search for consensus. The different bureaucracies will try to avoid divergence among ministries and seek consensus (Tong Yi Kou Jing). ―Tong Yi Kou Jing‖ means that different bureaucracies do not take divergent positions and that government speaks with one voice in public and in negotiation in the UNFCCC. Different bureaucracies work together through the defined procedures because they recognize their interdependence and their mutual interest in resolving policy differences (based on my discussion in chapters 4 and 5). From my interviews with many related officials and experts, climate change policy will benefit some bureaucracies and harm other bureaucracies mainly because of the difference between the economic development bureaucracies and environmental scientific bureaucracies (I will discuss it in detail in 9.4). According to the ―What you think is based on where you sit‖ principle, every bureaucracy has its own view on section interests and proposals. International cooperation and negotiation are a very important component of foreign policy coordination. There has to be one voice toward the international actors within a context where there exist sectional conflicts of interests and views. Foreign policy coordination may reduce these kinds of conflicts. According to my questionnaires, many experts and officials agree with this point.

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Figure 9.7. The question if foreign policy coordination reduces the conflicts among different bureaucracies. .A: agree strongly B: agree C: agree a little D: not agree E: not clear

The fourth stage is the stage to arbitrate interministerial differences and outcomes and build a consensus (Tong Yi Kong Jing). The horizontal coordination processes can resolve the difference of views, proposals, and interests. The Ministry of Finance can arbitrate the differences in interests caused by financial circumstances. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs unifies the different voices toward the UNFCCC negotiations. However, in respect of most important policy, the Committee of Reform and Development (Committee of Planning and Development) plays a significant role in producing consensus (Tong Yi Kong Jing). In the areas of the energy industry, agriculture production, reducing the GHG emissions, economic planning is still the dominated consideration. This requires a macro-planning bureaucracy to share the main responsibilities of foreign policy coordination on climate change. Otherwise, it is hard to implement the climate change policy without enough financial assistance and the layout of the national development and reform committee. This macro-planning bureaucracy is the Committee of Development and Planning, also called Committee of Reform and Development. As the head of National Coordination Committee (Zhu Guan Dan Wei or Zu Zhang Dan Wei) for Climate Change, it is in charge of coordinating the different policies and actions related to climate change. From the empirical analysis on these four stages, I draw some conclusions on the foreign policy coordination in this field: First, it is concerned with the ―consensus‖ for foreign policy coordination. Liu Jiang and Zeng Peiyan, the former leaders of the National Coordination Committee for Climate Change, have stressed that for foreign policy coordination, it is very important to make the consensus before the COP conference. In the meantime, consensus building does not always follow the model of ―management by exception"433 according to Susan Shirk.434.Some consensus is 433

It means that at each level of the organizational hierarchy, agency representatives make decisions by a rule of consensus. If they all agree, the decision is automatically ratified by the higher level. If the bureaucrats cannot

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acquired mainly by the core sections at the foreign policy coordination level; for example, four bureaucracies: the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Committee of Planning and Development, and the Ministry of Finance get involved in the implementation of CDM projects supported by the Asia Bank in China. Other bureaucracies in the National Coordination Committee for Climate Change do not even touch upon this issue. Many climate policies are dependent on epistemic communities from different bureaucracies, and some bureaucracies have to invite experts from Tsinghua University or the China Academy for Social Science because they lack the ability and time to cope with climate change issues. For example, the Ministry of Science and Technology always seeks assistance from Tsinghua University, and after that, it will change the research of Tsinghua University into its own policy. Furthermore, in some cases, immediate consensus is required to meet the need of Chinese negotiators, because international environmental negotiations have become more and more frequent than before with an increase in the environmental threat. Second, it is about the fragmented authoritarianism model on traditional theory on policy making in China. According to Lampton and Kenneth G. Lieberthal, there are numerous reporting lines throughout the system through party, functional, as well as territorial organs with resultant problems of governance. One territorial level organization contains within it several bureaucratic ranks. A unit cannot issue binding orders to another unit at the same bureaucratic rank, not even if it is at a higher territorial level435. However, the Committee of Development and Planning often achieves consensus among several bureaucratic bodies, of which none has authority over the others. Other ―window agencies‖ like the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Finance also play a determinant role in the foreign policy coordination process. Third, it is concerned with final decision-making. A greater analysis of the final decision making processes is needed in the context of the UNFCCC. However, according to my indepth interviews, consensus is not the necessary outcome of final decision-making. In fact, there are few consensus-based understandings or strategies among different bureaucracies in climate change policy. The outcome of final decision-making is just built on ―one voice‖ or ―no voice‖ (Bu Biao Tai) in the process of foreign policy coordination in climate change policy. Some officials told me that ―no voice‖ (Bu Biao Tai) as a policy is often applied in COP436 (Conference of Parties 1-8) and in some important summits437. If different bureaucracies all agree with some points, the China National Coordination Institute for Climate will automatically ratify them as consensus policy and take them back to the level of the UNFCCC through the ―window agency.‖ If the related bureaucrats cannot reach consensus, then the decision is referred to the ―window agency‖ instead of higher levels because the higher levels cannot cope with such complicated professional issues as climate reach consensus, then the decision is referred to the higher levels, and if the higher levels cannot agree, then either nothing happens or the ultimate principal, the Communist Party, intervenes to impose a solution 434 Susan Shirk, The Chinese Political System and the political Strategy for economic reform,, in Kenneth G. Lieberthal and David Lampton(ed.): Bureaucracy, politics, and decision making in Post-Mao China, (Berkeley: University of California Press,1992). 435 David Lampton and Kenneth G. Lieberthal (ed.): Bureaucracy, politics, and decision making in Post-Mao China,(Berkeley: University of California Press1992), pp 169. 436 "Conference of the Parties" means the Conference of the Parties to the Convention. "Convention" means the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted in New York on 9 May 1992. 437 Some internal Documents.

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change, and the ―no voice‖ (Bu Biao Tai) policy is fed back to the UNFCCC. ―No voice‖ (Bu Biao Tai) is not a consensus but a usual outcome of foreign policy coordination in China.

9.4 THE DIVERGENCE IN FOREIGN POLICY COORDINATION INSTITUTION Although China can improve foreign policy coordination and build consensus in climate change policy, there are important differences among the different bureaucracies even after around 10 years of foreign policy coordination.438

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Figure 9.8. The questionnaires on whether the foreign policy coordination creates consensus among the related bureaucracies. A: agree strongly B: agree C: agree a little D: not agree E: not clear.

In my questionnaires given to 40 officials and experts in related bureaucracies, I found that sometimes consensus does not arise through the foreign policy coordination efforts. Refer to the question if the foreign policy coordination creates the outcomes of consensus among the related bureaucracies. 7 people did not agree and 14 people showed an unclear attitude on this question. According to Professor Hatch, competing claims arise in China between the departments and agencies responsible for economic policy/planning, the environment, energy policy and foreign affairs.439 However, based on my interviews, China produced more CO2 emissions than any other country in the developing world, so Chinese officials were especially concerned that they might come under undue pressure to share its concrete responsibilities. Thus, I attribute this difference mainly to the conflicts relating to sharing concrete

438

Miranda A. Schreurs and Elizabeth Economy: The Internationalization of Environmental Protection, (Cambridge: Cambridge University, 1997).pp34 439 http://www.fu-berlin.de/ffu/akumwelt/bc2001/files/Hatch_final.PDF.

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responsibilities in the UNFCCC between the economic development bureaucracies and environmental scientific bureaucracies. The economic development bureaucracies (i.e., Committee of Development and Planning and State Economic and Trade Commission) argue that China ought to contribute to the international efforts to respond to climate change under the principle of ―no regret.‖ However, any action taken to respond to the threat of global warming should not restrict China‘s economic development. The map below shows the Chinese per capita energy consumption without reducing the GHG emission from 2000 – 2030. Table 9.1 China and OECD Country’s Energy Consumption and GHG Emission440 Year

1990

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2030

Nation

World OECD China China

GNP per capital (USD) 4200 20170 324 4257

Consumption of Energy (KGCE/USD) 0.495 0.360 2.667 0.540

The emission of CO2 (kg-c/kgce) 0.48 0.46 0.575 0.551

The emission of CO2 per Capital (kg-c/ per Capital) 1047 3582 496 1270

From the table above, we can see two points: First, China will contribute to global warming a lot if it does not slow down its economic development and energy consumption growth. Second, if China wants to keep up with the OECD countries, its energy consumption will increase a lot. China‘s economy must continue to grow rapidly during a rather long period, in order that the Chinese people can enjoy a living standard no lower than that of people in developed countries. According to Zhang Zhongxiang, when China decreases the emission of GHG by 10-20%, the GDP of the country decreases by 2%. When per capita income increases by 51%, the emission of GHG also increases by 1.29%441. So decreasing the emission of GHG has a negative effect on China‘s economic development rate. Elizabeth Economy argues that economic costs in taking action on climate change makes China the least proactive of any participant involved in the climate change-related political negotiations442. The environmental science bureaucracies (i.e., the Ministry of Science and Technology, China Meteorological Administration, State Environmental Protection Administration) take China as an indispensable member of the UNFCCC and emphasize a more concrete Chinese commitment to the international community to participate in the UNFCCC. ―China belongs to the international community and has a responsibility to participate in a positive fashion because China is an important player. Good intentions in environmental protection will gain 440

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China‘s State Council(ed.):China‘s Agenda 21-White paper on China‘s population, environment, and development in the 21st century,(Beijing: Environmental Science Press), 1994. Administration Center: The Tendency of Global Warming and China‘s Responsibility, 1998, pp 16.(Internel Materials). Zhang Zhongxiang, 1996, Macroeconomic Effect of Co2 Emissions Limits: A computer General Equilibrium Analysis, A paper presented at 7th Annual Conference of The European Association of Environment and Resource Economists, Lisbon. Elizabeth Economy:― Impacts of International Regimes‖, in Davis Lampton (ed.), The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security policy in the Era of Reform, 1978-2000, (Stanford, California, Stanford University 2001),pp 246.

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us backing internationally and promote international understanding.‖443 Furthermore, they argue that global warming has an impact on territorial integrity in a sense and make great threats to Chinese wellbeing. The environmental security and economic costs concern on global warming supports a trans-boundary approach because a global warming-induced security threat can threaten the whole world. Thus, it demands a global level approach for China to mitigate global warming under the context of the international climate change regimes. The Ministry of Agriculture also shows the same attitude because climate change will affect Chinese agriculture production primarily. This tends to support my earlier point that the topics of territorial security and trade are red bottom issues, so that these bureaucracies have to push these points if they want to convince their colleagues to take a more responsible attitude. Though there are a lot conflicting views, many officials and experts whom I interviewed showed some confidence in the development of foreign policy coordination in China. Refer to the question on the confidence of the development of foreign policy coordination in China.

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Based on my interviews.

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Chapter 10

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CONCLUSION Nowadays, environmental and energy security issues have captured the attention of the entire human race. The relationship between energy and environment has changed beyond recognition, and it poses a great challenge to both practitioners and scholars all over the world. Moreover, environmental and energy security issues have moved from the margin to the center of security policies, particularly since the end of the Cold War. On one hand, environmental and energy security issues have been recognized as an important source of threats to human survival over the last several decades. Human dependence on a modern energy service or a clean environment in a modern society is ten-to-one-hundred times greater than it was in an agrarian society. On the other hand, it is now universally acknowledged that international cooperation or collective action is necessary to resolve the security problems in the fields of energy and environment. International collective action on the environment and energy is a social and political problem as well as an economic one. It involves various sectors of the national social economy and so has an important bearing on political legitimacy and stability of all nations. The need for access to energy and other natural resources has increased with more states, so has competition for them. The advent of globalization, the growing gap between rich and poor, and the need to fight global warming are all intertwined with energy concerns. Preventing environmental catastrophies like climate change is, at its core, an energy challenge. Thus, there is a pressing need for strategic thinking about the balance between environment and energy around the world. All states in the world should make international efforts to address the conflicts between energy use and environmental protection. As the potentially severe consequences of climate change from global warming have become apparent global collective action to prevent them has increased. Governments of the world have been grappling with the problem of global warming since the signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), at the 1992 Earth Summit of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. Subsequent

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deliberations on how to implement it have been fraught with difficulties and differences among nations through the COP negotiations444. China is the world‘s most populous country with a growing economy that will soon make it the largest source of climate change. It currently ranks second in the world in GHG emissions. With a burgeoning economy and heavy reliance on coal use, it is expected to replace the United States as the world‘s largest emitter of GHG emissions in the next two to three decades. In international struggles against global warming, it is also a leader in the third world in ―steering‖ international climate change negotiations, and shows a great importance to the UNFCCC. As the biggest developing country, China is confronted with both a huge challenge and a large opportunity for environmental security cooperation on global warming. On the one hand, the international collective actions against global warming need China to assume concrete responsibilities as early as possible; on the other hand, China tries to protect the developing countries‘ and its own interests under the context of the UNFCCC. Foreign policy coordination is a central problem in any bureaucratic system445. My book is concerned with the relation between the UNFCCC and foreign policy coordination in China. As an international regime at the negotiation stage, the UNFCCC does play a unique role in shaping a policy maker‘s interests, changing their knowledge, and developing the domestic foreign policy coordination institution. My book suggests that UNFCCC plays positive roles in the development of foreign policy coordination in China. Impacts imposed by the UNFCCC will contribute to the development of coordination in Chinese policymaking. There will be little coordination in Chinese policymaking related to the field of global warming before the formulation of UNFCCC. Impacts imposed by the UNFCCC will be the important variables for the development of coordination in Chinese policymaking. In the last few chapters, I have undertaken a comprehensive assessment of the relation between the UNFCCC and foreign policy coordination in China. The UNFCCC plays an important role in the development of foreign policy coordination in China from the contexts of interests-based, domestic-institution-based, and knowledge-based explanations. In this chapter, I make a concluding analysis of the implications on the analytical framework on the UNFCCC and China‘s foreign policy coordination based on my empirical analyses. I conclude all my views and discussions in the last chapters, and try to prove that UNFCCC help the development of China‘s foreign policy coordination, taking the UNFCCC as convincing evidence. Moreover, I argue that the foreign policy coordination will improve the effectiveness of the UNFCCC, and put forward some new thoughts on Chinese policymaking.

444

Paul G. Harris (ed.): Global Warming and East Asia: the Domestic and International Politics of Climate Change, Project on Environmental Change & Foreign Policy, Department of Politics & Sociology, Hongkong, Lingnan University, 2002, pp 1-5. 445 Burns, John P.: Horizontal Government: policy coordination in China, paper prepared for the International Conference on Governance in Asia: Culture, Ethics, Institutional reform and Policy change, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, December 2002.

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10.1 THE ENVIRONMENTAL DIPLOMACY AND INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEM Today, the world‘s scientists now regard environmental disaster as one of the most serious global problems the world faces, and environmental threat has become a very serious national security issue. Environmental security emphasizes the unit of analysis and suggests that an environmental component be included in the concept of security: national, global, or social. Security to a common man is "freedom from danger, safety." Thus, environmental security can be understood as ―freedom from environmental danger/conflicts.‖ But this definition only refers to the absence of environmental insecurity. There are some efforts to provide a positive approach, which would include not only the absence of environmental conflicts but also the achievement of environmental sustainability. One researcher provides a working definition of environmental security by identifying its components: 1. Sustainable exploitation of renewable natural resources; 2. Protection of the human environment; 3. Safeguarding of renewable natural resources; 4. Minimization of the risks. Today, environmental security issues have threatened the national interests of all the countries in the world. For example, scarcity of natural resources and the degradation of natural environments by human overexploitation may contribute to social and political instability in strategically important regions like the Middle East, North Africa, and East, Central, and South Asia. Environmental degradation is often associated with rapid population growth, famine, migration, and state failure and collapse in some lesser-developed and formerly communist countries. Many environmental issues such as ozone layer depletion, species extinction and overexploitation, radioactive and chemical contamination, ocean pollution, and climate change threaten the physical, economic, and social security of citizens. An international environmental system is one of the important branches of a global system. The role players in this system include both state actors (i.e., developed countries in the post-industrial stage, new industrial developing powers, resource-intensie states) and nonstate actors (e.g., UNEP, Green Peace). According to the international environmental laws, values and regimes, the interactions in global, regional, bilateral and sub-national level between and among these role players constitute and form the international environmental system. The interactions focus on the following aspects: the sustainable development and equity growth model, resource sovereignty and environmental peacekeeping, global responsibility. We can study the international environmental system by identifying its components as the following: 1. Sustainable exploitation of renewable natural resources; 2. Protection of the human environment; 3. Safeguard of the renewable natural resources; 4. Minimization of the environmental disasters.

10.1.2 The History of the International Environmental System 10.1.2.1 The Three Stages of an International Environmental System Oran Yang argues that there are three stages for regime formation: the agenda formation stage, the negotiation stage, and the operation stage. There are also three stages for an international environmental system.

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The First Stage: the creation of environmental security (from 1960s to 1980s). Environmental issues only became suitable for public discussion in international forums after being taken up by the environmental movement in the 1960s and 1970s. Beginning with the UN Conference on Human Environment in 1972, political leaders brought these issues to the agenda of international politics. With the improvement of US-Soviet relations in the mid1980s, the environmental issues received a place in international public discourse and in the media. ―From its relatively humble beginning in the early 1980s, the subject of environment and security has become something of a major academic industry, as well as an issue of growing concern to foreign policymakers in various national capitals The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, held in Stockholm, Sweden, in June 1972, marked the emergence of international environmental law. There, countries adopted the Declaration on the Human Environment or Stockholm Declaration that set out the principles for many international environmental issues, including human rights, natural resource management, pollution prevention and the relationship between the environment and development. The conference led to the creation of the United Nations Environment Programme. The Second Stage: the early development stage of the international environmental system (from the 1980s to 1990s). In the 1990s environmental issues became headlines in the global media. It was introduced to the political agenda, at both the domestic and international levels, and it also attracted the attention of research institutes. The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in June 1992, marked a turning point in the history of international environmental cooperation. The Earth Summit attracted more than 110 presidents and prime ministers and thousands of nongovernmental organizations. The Earth Summit developed the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development and Agenda 21. It also led to the establishment of the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development and the Global Environment Facility. The leaders of the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil -- known as the Earth Summit -- embraced the concept of sustainable development and of common, but differentiated, responsibilities among rich and poor nations concerning the protection of global resources. The summit included the adoption of treaties on global warming and biodiversity that incorporated these principles. The summit also raised recognition of the important role that citizen organizations play in holding global financial and trade institutions accountable for their lending practices and decisions. The third stage focuses on human sustainable development. Since 1990, more and more scholars argued that environmental protection should be integrated into human economic development. The 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, South Africa, encouraged the creation of more informal partnerships among governments, agencies, businesses and citizen groups to take action on existing promises related to sustainable development. Some nations have called for the creation of a global environmental organization with real international regulatory powers. We can expect debate over how best to protect the planet to continue and grow in the coming years. The World Summit on Sustainable Development held in Johannesburg, South Africa, in August 2002 helped heighten attention to the critical role of civil society in a globalized world. The summit stimulated the announcement of more than 200 partnerships and initiatives involving not only

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governments, but also citizen groups and businesses for implementing commitments at the domestic level.

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10.1.2.2 Four Functions of an International Environmental System Environmental issues have presently entered the international political arena in a forceful way and the debates and discussions on environmental issues have become more and more significant at different levels. Based on the summary of the development of international environmental cooperation, we can conclude the following four characteristics of an international environmental system: Firstly is to coordinate the South-North relationship. Though there are a lot of conflicts and disputes between developing and developed countries on how to balance economic growth and environmental protection, there is a powerful demand for developed and developing countries to construct an international environmental system for collectively preventing ecological disasters. The Rio Declaration on Environment and Development (1992) states that the industrial world should "Provide technical and financial assistance to developing countries". Secondly is to coordinate international coordination. An international environmental system will shape foreign and security interests that most countries‘ security institutions are not suited to address. All states in the world should work together to address the problem of global climate change. Since no country, by itself, would be able to substantially influence the climate system, an international regime for climate change aversion is sought to overcome this collective problem since the 1980s. Thirdly is the relationship between the international environmental system and the US. The United States is the most powerful and the largest developed country with a strong power position even in the environmental protection arena. According to Michael E. Kraft, ―the line between domestic and international environmental protection is much less sharp than it used to be. In particular, U.S. policymakers are now influenced by a wide array of forces external to the nation. These include requirements emanating from treaty obligations, pressures from international environmental groups and multinational corporations, and a multitude of reports and recommendations flowing from international institutions, such as the Global Environment Facility, the World Bank, and the UN Commission on Sustainable Development.‖446 The fourth is the environmental governance by international organizations. The United Nations and its agencies play a significant role in an international environmental system. The Global Environment Facility (GEF) in the context of the UNFCCC is a financial support regime to encourage developing countries to contribute to the prevention of global warming, the most pressing global environmental problem.

446

Michael E. Kraft, ―Environmental Policy and Politics in the United States: Toward Environmental Sustainability?‖ Uday Desai, ed., Environmental Politics and Policy In Industrialized Countries (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2002), p.44

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10.1.3 The Institutions and Norms in International an Environmental System 10.1.3.1 The Important Institutions in International an Environmental System All states in the world should work together to address the problem of global environmental pollution. Since no country, by itself, would be able to substantially resolve the environmental problems, international institutions and norms for an international environmental system have been sought to overcome this collective aversion problem. It began during the early 1970s with the first human environment and development program.

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(1) The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) was founded in the first United Nations Environment Conference held in Stockholm in June 1972, and headquartered in Nairobi. To protect the global environment is the goal of UNEP. UNEP is the voice for the environment. Within the United Nations system, the UNEP‘s mission is to provide leadership and encourage partnership in caring for the environment by inspiring, informing, and enabling nations and peoples to improve their quality of life without compromising that of future generations. 447 The UNEP aims to assess global, regional and national environmental conditions and trends, develop international agreements and national environmental instruments, strengthen institutions for the wise management of the environment, and integrate economic development and environmental protection. The UNEP has eight divisions to promote and facilitate sound environmental management for sustainable development: Early Warning and Assessment; Policy Development and Law; Environmental Policy Implementation; Technology, Industry and Economics; Regional Cooperation; Environmental Conventions; Communications and Public Information; Global Environment Facility (GEF) Coordination.448 (2) The Global Environment Facility (GEF) The Global Environment Facility (GEF) in the context of the United Nations is a financial support regime to encourage developing countries to contribute to the prevention of global warming and other pressing global environmental problems. Until now, the GEF has ―the world‘s unique multilateral environmental funding source, the only multilateral financial mechanism, and the financial implementing agency for climate change built into the UNFCCC. The GEF provides financial support for projects related to climate change, and provides grant and financing to developing countries to improve their capabilities to protect global warming.‖449 The GEF ―results in indirect impacts on developing countries, such as China, and affects their abilities to master, absorb and diffuse technologies related to reducing greenhouse gases (GHG). GEF Projects build the human resources and institutional capacities that are widely recognized as important conditions for technology adoption and diffusion.‖450 447

The UNEP:"About UNEP: The Organization ",. 448 The UNEP:"Environment for Development", http://www.unep.org/PDF/ABOUT_UNEP_ ENGLISH.pdf. 449 Lin Gan, "Global Environmental Policy in Transition: An Actors' Perspective", in Global Environmental Change Human and Policy Dimensions, 3, 2( June,1993), pp. 30-51. 450 "Technology Transfer and Market Development," . Accessed on April 2, 2004.

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Since its inception, the GEF has promoted technology transfer, grants, and loans for developing countries through a series of projects in developing countries. Besides the above two institutions, there are still many important international conventions such as the following: 1) Convention on Biological Diversity; 2) Framework Convention on Climate Change; 3) Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer; 4) Kyoto Protocol; 5) Convention on Wetlands of International Importance Especially as Waterfowl Habitats; 6) United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ; 7) International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships; 8) Convention of Protection of Marine Life; 9) Basel Convention on the Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal; 10) Convention on Desertification.

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10.1.3.2 The important norms of an international environmental system (1) The Principle of sustainable development The internationally accepted definition of sustainable development comes from the report of the United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development (‗Our Common Future‘ (1987)), namely: ―Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.‖ The Plan of Implementation of the 2002 United Nations World Summit of Sustainable Development specifically states the need to ―Enhance partnerships between governmental and nongovernmental sectors, including all major groups, as well as volunteer groups, on programmes and activities for the achievement of sustainable development at all levels.‖ Take the world economy as an example, as the economies of the developed and developing countries are increasingly interdependent, worsening poverty means, in effect a shrinking world market and sluggish international trade. Conversely, with greater progress in sustainable development, whereby the demand and purchasing power of 78% of the world population will be growing stronger and stronger, all-round economic cooperation and allround expansion of the world market will keep thriving. Thus sustainable development is in the interest of all countries (2) Common but differential responsibilities Developed countries are the principal emitters of pollutants and therefore should bear the primary responsibilities in addressing the climate change problem. The principle of ―Common but Differentiated Responsibilities‖ is the global consensus in the UNFCCC and other international environmental laws. This principle means that the industrialized, wealthy countries of the world bear responsibility for global warming because of their historic emissions of greenhouse gases for more than three hundred years. Furthermore, developed countries‘ per capita emissions remain far above those of developing countries, meaning that their responsibility continues. According to the UNFCCC, ―The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries, that per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low and that the share of global emissions originating in developing countries grow to meet their social and development needs. The Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country

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.

Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof. The extent to which developing country Parties effectively implement their commitments under the Convention depend on the effective implementation by developed country Parties of their commitments under the Convention related to financial resources and transfer of technology and take fully into account that economic and social development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of the developing country Parties‖451. (3) Environmental interdependence and international cooperation The harm done by environmental disasters also adds a potential threat to human beings, it is so serious in its nature and so far-reaching in influence that it has transcended national boundaries, come across oceans and expanded to the whole world.452 As these consequences have become clearer, governments have started to work unilaterally and in concert to adapt to and – much less robustly – mitigate environmental problems and build an environmental system. An international environmental system has acquired wide interest in the context of international relations, and is also a truly complex global interdependent issue. For example, climate change and ozone layer depletion have had serious impact on every aspect of human economic and social life453. On the one hand, the pursuit of rational common goods for environmental security led to cooperation; however, on the other hand, the pursuit of rational self-interest or preference among different states often frustrates an international environmental system.

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10.1.4 The Difficulties and Problems for the International Environmental System (1) The great powers in the international environment system Major power interaction decides the rules and legitimacy of an international environmental system. The developed world should share the main responsibilities of international environmental protection, and play the proactive role in it. The developing worlds only share the ―common but differential responsibilities‖. For the developed states, the EU plays a role as a leader and pusher in international climate change action against global warming. The EU has used its dual status as the biggest economic bloc and its growing role as a major pusher to international commitments on climate change. The EU is one of the largest donors of environmental aid and the strongest supporter of the Kyoto Protocol in the COP conferences. The U.S. is the world's largest and most influential country, and is experiencing widespread and acute environmental problems with severe local, national, and regional consequences. In other words, the US is central to regional and global environmental protection efforts. Since 1997, the U.S. State Department has published its annual Environmental Diplomacy Report454, which evaluates the global environment and environmental diplomacy. ―The United States was a global leader in the early development of 451

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 9 May 1992, www.unfccc.int. See ―Climate in despair‖, in Times, (July 15th 1999), p. 25. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)‘s annual report 1992-2001, www.ipcc.ch 454 The U.S. State Department: http://www.state.gov/www/global/oes/earth.html 452 453

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policies and regulatory programmes to protect environmental quality.‖455 The US leadership was evident in its preemptive action to limit emissions of ODCs. This action created an environment in which industry had an economic incentive to find a technological solution to the problem (namely, substitutes for ODCs, which US industry was first to develop). The developing powers (e.g. Brazil, India and China) have used the global environmental negotiations to pursue its own national interests. 456 India, Brazil and other developing powers also sought and excise leadership within the Third World for global environmental protection. Brazil quests for regional and even global leadership, especially among developing countries. (2) The equity development The U.S. and other developed countries‘ resource and energy use is extravagant, wasteful and competitive. But most developing countries only struggle for their basic needs satisfaction, such as completion of industrialization of urbanization and basic physical life adequacy. It‘s an inalienable right of the developing world to further develop its economy, improve living standards, and enjoy the same living standards of people in the developed countries. Of the world's six billion people, one-third enjoys electricity. And one third -- two billion people -- simply lack access to modern energy services and living on less than $2 per day. For the poor countries, ensuring economic growth and lifting people out of poverty are necessarily important priorities. More energy use by these countries and greater emissions from them are therefore inevitable. 457 For the largest developing country of China, global warming issues also have been intimately linked with efforts to modernize the economy and the energy strategy employed to fuel that modernization. If China decreases the emission of GHG by 10-20%, the GDP of the country will decrease by 2%. When per capita income increases by 5.1%, the emissions of GHG increase by 1.29%.458

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10.1.5. The Future Trend of an International Environmental System Firstly, environmental diplomacy will be put first on global governance agenda. Environment diplomacy is a political and social problem as well as an economic one. It involves various sectors of the national economy and so has an important bearing on the sustainable economic and social development of the world. The need for access to global energy or natural resources has increased, and this pushes all the states to make greater endeavors on environmental diplomacy. With the breakdown of the cold war in the late 1980s, environmental diplomacy received a place in international public discourse and in the 455

Gary C. Bryner, "The United States: `Sorry--Not Our Problem'," in William M. Lafferty and James Meadowcroft (eds.), Implementing Sustainable Development: Strategies and Initiatives in High Consumption Societies (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000), p. 273. 456 Ken Johnson, "Brazil and the Politics of the Climate Change Negotiations." Journal of Environment & Development, Vol. 10, No. 2 (June 2001), p. 199... 457 According to International Energy Agency data, the per capita total primary energy supply of the U.S. was more than six times higher than China's and nearly 15 times that of India's in 2004; the per capita emissions of carbon dioxide by these countries followed a similar pattern. 458 Zhang Zhongxiang: ―Macroeconomic Effect of Co2 Emissions Limits: A computer General Equilibrium Analysis‖, A paper presented at 7th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environment and Resource Economists, Lisbon.

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media. In the 1990s environmental issues became headlines in the global media. It was introduced to the political agenda, at both the domestic and international levels. Environmental diplomacy has presently entered the international political arena in a forceful way and the debates and discussions on environmental issues have become more and more significant at different levels. In early 2007, the EU decided to cut greenhouse gas emissions 20% by 2020 from 1990 levels and by 30% if other industrialized nations join in. The EU also agreed to back collective cuts of 60% to 80% by 2050 compared with 1990 levels. The U.S. environmental diplomacy aims to serve its global leadership. According to Warren Christopher, ―The United States is providing the leadership to promote global peace and prosperity. The US must also lead in safeguarding the global environment on which that prosperity and peace ultimately depend.‖459 Secondly, global environmental problems have entered North-South relations in close connection with the question of equity and sovereignty. The developing countries are seeking to industrialize and modernize, while the developed world urges them to assume the concrete responsibility for protecting the environment as early as it can, if not, the rapid increase of pollution in poor countries will counterbalance the endeavors of international environmental cooperation. For example, by 2006, carbon emissions in developing countries were 44 percent over 1990 levels, and 71 percent over 1986 levels. In 2002, the Bush Administration argues that the Kyoto Protocol is unfair to the United States and to other industrialized nations because it exempts 80 percent of the world from compliance particularly China. The U.S. pushed for a provision that would have allowed these countries to voluntarily "opt in" to binding commitments, but China and India blocked this measure, among others. For the developing countries, concern for sovereignty and equity has always been central to environmental diplomacy (e.g., India, Brazil), and the developing countries‘ equity concerns reflected a desire for fairness in the distribution of responsibility for repairing global environmental damage. ―The India government took steps to coordinate the position of the South on the ozone issue and other global environmental issues.‖ 460 Fatai Kayode Salau argues, ―Nigeria has taken a radical stance on the problem of the export of hazardous wastes from industrialized countries to the African continent‖. 461 India played a leadership role in articulating Third World concerns and uniting developing countries around a common agenda.‖ 462 ―Brazil placed emphasis on the importance of state sovereignty and on the need to constrain interventionism.‖ 463 Thirdly, environmental multilateralism will be the foundation of an international environmental system. The two means of multilateralism are internationalism, which put 459

Warren Christopher, ―Diplomacy and the Environment‖, in Warren Christopher (ed.), In the Stream of History: Shaping Foreign Policy for a New Era (California: Stanford University Press, 1998), p. 417. 460 Mukund Govind Rajan, ―India‘s Foreign Environmental Policy,‖ Global Environmental Politics: India and the North-South Politics of Global Environmental Issues, (Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 75. 461 Fatai Kayode Salau, "Nigeria," in M. Janicke and H. Weidner (eds.), National Environmental Policies: A Comparative Study of Capacity-Building (Berlin: Springer, 1997), p. 261. 462 Mukund Govind Rajan, Global Environmental Politics: India and the North-South Politics of Global Environmental Issues (Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 270. 463 Andrew Hurrell,"The Foreign Policy of Modern Brazil," in Steven Hook ed., Comparative Foreign Policy: Adaptation Strategies of the Great and Emerging Powers, (New Jercy: Prentice Hall, 2002). P. 162.

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higher priorities on international institutions rather than the state in aspects of morality, laws and strategy, and legitimacy, which depends on international laws and accords. International environmental regimes can facilitate human environmental cooperation through the seven means which follow: First, regimes can lengthen the shadow of the future. Second, regimes can alter the cardinal payoffs of a game to make conflict more or less likely. Third, regimes institutionalize rules and norms in order to increase the probability of cooperation. Fourth, regimes facilitate cooperation by providing information to members. Fifth, regimes increase the probability of cooperation by reducing transaction costs. Sixth, regimes can facilitate cooperation by linking issues. Seventh, regimes increase the likelihood of cooperation by redirecting domestic hostility464. All environmental disputes and conflicts arise from different active voices. The harm done by global environmental disasters can only be resolved by international regimes and multilateralism. Building on the legacy of Stockholm, Rio Summit, and Johannesburg, there has been great progress. Various multilateral conventions or instruments have been negotiated, which address quite a lot of such environmental issues. Since the 1970s, the world community has developed a large body of international environmental laws, including more than 1000 treaties. Various multilateral conventions or instruments have been negotiated, which address nearly all the environmental issues.

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10.2 THE CONCLUSIONS FROM MY EMPIRICAL STUDY In the negotiation and operation stage of the UNFCCC, China need not fully share the concrete responsibilities for reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) before 2050, and domestic variables (i.e., China domestic economy, industrial and consumption structure, and related domestic laws) have little effect related to the UNFCCC. In the negotiation on the UNFCCC, China also has resisted any attempt to impose obligations on developing countries, beyond the UNFCCC, such as subjecting developing countries to emissions targets. China is even apprehensive about proposals of voluntary commitments by a few developing countries, apparently for fear that they would undermine the unity of the developing countries and that China will be pressured to follow suit. China has repeatedly stated at the COP negotiations that China is willing to participate in the UNFCCC and will continue to make efforts to limit GHG emissions, but will only do so according to ―common but differential responsibilities‖ in the UNFCCC. The ―timetable‖ that China has set for itself as is such that China will not undertake obligations of GHG emissions reduction until the Chinese economy and standard of living are comparable to those of medium-level developed countries465. The UNFCCC is at the negotiation stage, and has also a potential and uncertain impact on foreign policy coordination in China from explanatory contexts of interests, norms and domestic institutions. I tested theoretical argument in the last chapters as below: the 464

There are several neo-liberals raising these augments: David A. Baldwin (ed.), Neorealism and Neoliberalism: the Contemporary Debate, Columbia University Press, 1993,Robert O. Keohane: After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Economy, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press ,1984 and Stephen D. Krasner (ed.), ―International Régime‖, Cornell University Press, 1983 465 Zhang Zhihong: ―Forces Behind China‘s Policy‖, in Paul G. Harris (ed.): Global Warming and East Asia: the Domestic and International Politics of Climate Change, Project on Environmental Change & Foreign Policy, Department of Politics & Sociology, Hongkong Lingnan University ,2002. pp 56.

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UNFCCC plays an important role in the development of foreign policy coordination in China from the contexts of interests-based, domestic-institution-based, and knowledge-based explanations. In my book, impacts imposed by the UNFCCC are an independent variable, the development of foreign policy coordination in China is the dependent variable, and the intervening variables are norms and rules in the UNFCCC, issues resolving procedures through the Conference of the Parties (COP)466, and Global Environmental Facility for climate change (GEF). My questionnaires document the values on independent variables (UNFCCC) and dependent variables employed in the book, and these are based on the 43 questionnaire received from 16 bureaucracies and institutions. By three empirical analyses chapters, I develop an explanatory framework to analyze how the UNFCCC has contributed to coordination in Chinese policy. The explanatory framework is shown below.

Figure 10.1. The explanatory framework for the UNFCCC and foreign policy coordination in China

First, I show three different intervening variables to affect foreign policy coordination in China. Then I introduce a concept of ―window agency‖ as the bridge through that the 466

Comprise all countries that have ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. COP is responsible for implementing the objectives of the Convention and has been meeting regularly since 1995.

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UNFCCC imposes its effects on Chinese foreign policy coordination. Later different constituents and steps for the foreign policy coordination in China are described. Finally, the consensus will be a feedback to the level of the UNFCCC as China‘s foreign policies on the international level. From the explanatory framework, I emphasize three approaches in order to build a broader theoretical view between the international regimes and foreign policy coordination in China: interests-based, knowledge-based, and domestic-institution-based explanations. In my case, issues resolving procedures through the Conference of the Parties represents the knowledge-based impacts imposed by the UNFCCC, the Global Environmental Facility for climate change (GEF) for the interests-based impacts, and articles, terms related and communication responsibilities for the domestic-based impacts separately. By these intervening variables, I integrate the UNFCCC into foreign policy coordination in China, and find correlation between them. First, interests imposed by international regimes can facilitate foreign policy coordination by providing interest incentives for the different relatedc bureaucracies. There are two kinds of interests based incentives in my book: one is material factors (international funds, and international environmental aid projects) from the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) on the mechanism to avoid global warming in the context of the UNFCCC;467 another is the perception of interests faced in dealing with the UNFCCC468. The projects, funds and loans attract many bureaucracies to intermeddle in the climate change policy making. The Ministry of Finance plays a hinge role as ―window agency‖ in the process of climate change foreign policy coordination, and helps determine who are the intercessors when interest conflict happens among different ministries. Second, knowledge imposed by international regimes is a positive influence in the development of the coordination among different bureaucracies through the integration of ―Dui An‖. There are two kinds of knowledge-based factors in the UNFCCC: first, the issues negotiated in the conference of parties (COP); and second, some normative factors in the UNFCCC, which means the standards of behavior defined in terms of rights and obligations in the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. China needs one voice in the negotiation on the issues negotiated in the Conferences of Parties (COP) in spite of many conflicts among different bureaucracies. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs is the ―window agency‖ for coordination and communication in this kind of foreign policy coordination process. The communications and discussion on the proposals ―Dui An‖ lead to the consensus. Furthermore, knowledge-based factors (international normative factors) will also play a more and more important role in explaining Chinese foreign policy coordination behavior from the regulative and constitutive approaches. Third, the rules to build the related domestic institution in international regimes are the constitutive factor for the coordination in Chinese policymaking. It also makes the UNFCCC reflect the efforts to reach down into the state to set the domestic institutions and influence the policy formation and implementation processes. There is one important domestic institution imposed by the UNFCCC: Chinese National Coordination Committee for Climate. I find the 467 468

www.gefweb.org For example, before China joins the UNFCCC, most of Chinese officials did not know global warming is a potential great threat to Chinese national interests. Things are different after 1992 Rio summit.

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UNFCCC‘s role in its appearance, its mechanisms and development. There are four stages for foreign policy coordination in this domestic institution: (1) to make independent proposals or decisions; (2) the communication and consultation stage; (3) to make an interministerial search for the consensus process; and (4) to make final decisions. There still exist some conflicts even after these four stages because of the interests and views conflicts between the economic development bureaucracies and the environmental science bureaucracies. In conclusion, the interests, knowledge, and domestic based factors determine foreign policy coordination in China through changing the related agents‘ behaviors or institution context. The GEF functions as a catalytic medium to generate incentives from the UNFCCC on different related bureaucracies, and improve Chinese capacity building for climate change. The issues-resolving procedures through the Conference of the Parties (COP) shape the behaviors of the bureaucracies who join the foreign policy coordination. The related rules in the UNFCCC also impel China to strengthen its foreign policy coordination institution building. Among interests, knowledge, and domestic based factors, the knowledge based factors play the important role in most of my interviews.

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10.3 THE IMPLICATIONS FROM MY EMPIRICAL STUDY Kenneth Lieberthal states that global environmental catastrophes are reaching the point where they threaten to unbalance the current population distribution and spatial economy of China, with potentially massive consequences. He argues that a matter of increasing environmental importance be whether the political system can respond effectively to these challenges to prevent them from producing large-scale population migrations, major social distress, and possibly catastrophic economic and health consequences. In suggesting solutions to this problem, Lieberthal emphasizes that China must devote substantial resources to cope with it. 469 International linkages matter in shaping domestic policy-making and influencing policy outcomes on transnational or global environmental issues470. Implication 1. China’s Principles on the international struggle against climate change Elizabeth Economy argues that there are effectively several principles guiding Chinese environmental foreign policy in this area: sovereignty, the primacy of economic development, and the historic responsibility of the developed countries471. We can add the important longterm commitment to be a leader of developing countries on the world stage, including environmental cooperation. Zhang Zhihong472 argues that the official Chinese position on

469

Lieberthal, Kenneth: ―China‘s political System in the 1990‘s‖, Journal of Northeast Asian Studies, (Spring, 1991), pp 71-77. 470 Miranda A. Schreurs and Elizabeth Economy: The Internationalization of Environmental Protection, (Cambridge: Cambridge University, 1997),p. 3. 471 Elizabeth Economy: ―The impact of International Regimes on Chinese Foreign Policy-Making: Broading Perspectives and Politics…But Only to a Point‖, in David M. Lampton Ed., The making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform,( Stanford, California: Stanford University Press, 2001), Chapter Eight. PROVIDE PAGE NUMBERS INSTEAD. 472 Zhang Zhihong: ―Forces Behind Chinese Policy‖, in Paul G. Harris (ed.): Global Warming and East Asia: the Domestic and International Politics of Climate Change, Project on Environmental Change & Foreign Policy,

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climate change has revolved around four themes: 1. China is a victim of global climate change; 2. Developed countries are the principal emitters of GHG emissions and therefore should bear the primary responsibilities in addressing the climate change problem; 3. In light of their current and historical responsibilities and respective capabilities, developed countries should undertake transfers of advanced, environmentally friendly technologies and provide financial assistance to developing countries in combating climate change while meeting the needs of sustainable development; 4. Chinese overriding priority is poverty eradication and economic development. However, China has generally begun to adopt and participate in the UNFCCC. I have found that China has demonstrated four significant principles toward in the UNFCCC and its negotiation. Firstly, it protects the principle of sovereignty in the UNFCCC‖. In 1992, Chinese Premier Li Peng expounded Chinese views on the sovereignty, as ―International cooperation should be strengthened on the basis of respecting national sovereignty.‖ 473 There are four aspects of the Chinese version of environmental sovereignty: 1. China enjoy full use of its own natural resource according to United Nations‘ (1974) ―Charter of Economic Rights and Responsibilities;‖ 2. China develops and utilizes its natural resources according to its policy and according to Declaration of United Nations Conference on Human Environment (1972); 3. China establishes environmental policies and laws according to the sovereignty principle; 4. China cooperates or battles with other countries on environmental issues according to the international regime. Though China has joined the international collective actions against 474 climate change under the context of UNFCCC , it still insists on the right to enjoy, develop, utilize, and protect its own natural resources by itself continuously. Chinese officials said China would safeguard Chinese sovereignty when it encouraged any coordinated international activities in the UNFCCC475. Defending national sovereignty has been a cornerstone of Chinese foreign policy476. China has been mindful and vigilant to safeguard its sovereignty and ensure that its economic and environmental policy agenda is not to be dictated by other countries or multilateral agencies477. Zhang Zhihong argues, ―in essence, sovereignty in Chinese climate change policy centers on the right to develop its economy and set its policy agenda as it sees fit without interference from outside forces.‖478 Secondly, it tries to guarantee the priority of economic stability and growth. The global warming issues in China have been intimately linked with efforts to modernize the economy and the energy strategy employed to fuel that modernization. On the one hand, if China decreases the emission of GHG by 10-20%, the GDP of the country will decrease by 2%.

Department of Politics & Sociology, Lingnan University, 2002. PROVIDE FULL CITE FROM ROUTLEDGE BOOK 2003. 473 Administration Center for Chinese Agenda 21: the Documents of the UN conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro,(Beijing: Environmental Science Publish. Inc. 1992).pp. 1-10. 474 Sate Environmental Protection Administration of China: International Environmental Cooperation Strategy and Planning of China in 21st Century, 2000, 475 Ibid. 476 Zhang Zhihong: ―Forces Behind Chinese Policy‖, in Paul G. Harris (ed.): Global Warming and East Asia: the Domestic and International Politics of Climate Change, Project on Environmental Change & Foreign Policy, Department of Politics & Sociology, Lingnan University, 2002. pp. 61-63. 477 Ibid., pp 63. 478 Ibid., pp 51.

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When per capita income increases by 51%, the emissions of GHG increase by 1.29%.479 Decreasing the emission of GHG has a negative effect on the Chinese economic development priority principle. The economic cost to reducing the GHG emissions will be thousands of billions USD according to many experts in this field480, including energy industry rebuilding, introduction of clean energy technology; for example, coal-based energy represents 60-70% of the Chinese energy structure. If China has to transform it to an oil-based or natural-gas based energy structure, billions of dollars will be needed481. On the other hand, China also tries to seek international technical assistance like the GEF foundation and loans in order to gain some economic benefits such as to improve energy utilization‘s efficiency and energy conservation without much cost under the principle of ―no regret.‖ A "no regrets" policy implies actions that provide benefits to the country, regardless of whether the threat of global warming is real. For China, such an approach would take as a given priority that economic growth remains the top priority. China actively seeks investment from the international community for projects, which assist in the slowing of climate change. Thirdly, China tries to avoid sharing the concrete responsibilities as late as possible because China wants to have more time to develop its economy. China insists on ―common but differentiated responsibilities‘‘, and this principle has been enshrined in the Rio Declaration and also in a series of new international conventions signed at, or since, the 1992 Earth Summit. According to some government documents, it is the industrial countries‘ historical responsibilities that contribute most to global warming. As a non-ANNEX I 482 country , China still refuses to share the concrete responsibility according to the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. Fourthly, China acts as a leader and representative of developing countries in the UNFCCC negotiation. ―Group of 77 plus China‖ is the main scheme by which China tries to exert its influence in climate change regimes, which is also a negotiation ally in the Conference of Parties (COP). As we know, international cooperation and conflicts coexist in the UNFCCC. They are the two sides of one coin. China created the terms like ―environmental colonialism‖ and ―Sovereignty intervention‖ to ally the developing countries in interests‘ struggles in the UNFCCC. With the discussion above in mind, China is likely to try to avoid sharing concrete responsibility in the UNFCCC. The Chinese government always states, ―It‘s an inalienable right of the Chinese people to further develop its economy, improve living standards, and enjoy the same living standards of people in the developed countries. China only shares the responsibilities based on the ―no regret principle,‖ which means any responsibilities in climate change policy should not slow economic development‖483.

479

Zhang Zhongxiang: ―Macroeconomic Effect of Co2 Emissions Limits: A computer General Equilibrium Analysis‖, A paper presented at 7th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environment and Resource Economists, Lisbon. 480 According to my interview with: Professor Wang Yongqing (Tsinghua University); Professor Lin Erda( Ministry of Forest); Professor Ding Yihui( the Former President of IPCC). Beijing, Tsinghua University, China, April 2003. 481 Ibid. 482 Mainly mean the developing countries. 483 Group of Countries not specified in the Annex I to the UNFCCC.

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Implication 2. China's response to global warming and climate change What are the implications of China's response to global warming and climate change? Clearly it has done something, but equally clear is that it is not doing anywhere near what is required to adequately address this problem. China is of course not unique in this. Even the world's wealthiest country, the United States, has failed utterly in acting to address climate change issues. Like most countries, each has sought to make incremental changes domestically while avoiding international obligations to substantially limit GHG emissions. China's emissions of GHGs are rising fast. It is increasingly a massive part of the problem, making mitigation of climate change much less likely. To be sure, the global economy and the countries of Asia Pacific can benefit from China's growth, but most of the region will also suffer from the environmental consequences of China's economic expansion. Indeed, some island states in Asia Pacific may even disappear as seas rise. Given the historical responsibility of the developed countries for the bulk of historical pollution causing global warming, China should continue to ally with Asian Pacific and other countries in an effort to push the rich countries to reduce their emissions of GHGs and to provide financial and technical assistance to help vulnerable countries adapt to climate change. At the FCCC's conference of the parties in New Delhi in late 2002, China joined with India in reiterating its outright rejection of GHG emissions cuts for developing countries, instead arguing that increased emissions would be required to lift their people out of poverty. China revealed its intentions at that conference. In a 'deal with the devil' (the government and industries of the United States) it declared that mitigating climate change – substantially reducing emissions of GHGs and thus limiting global warming – would be impossible for decades to come. There was a new alliance between the United States, China and many developing countries, such as India and members of OPEC. China agreed with the United States that adaptation measures – transfers of funds and technology from developed to developing countries to help them cope with climate change – were the preferred ways to address the problem. As such, China joined the United States in pushing the difficult issue of cutting emissions into the future, focusing instead on garnering as many financial and other resources as possible from the world's rich. By shifting the focus of the climate talks to adaptation, and away from mitigation, both the rich and poor countries could avoid doing what they dread the most: demanding that entrenched economic interests reduce their GHG emissions.484 This strategy will obviously do nothing to limit global warming and climate change. But neither is it effective for China to continue to blame the rich countries for the problem – no matter how justified that blame and whatever the ethical justifications for doing so. One fact is perhaps painful to acknowledge: While the rich countries have produced the bulk of greenhouse pollutants so far, they did not know they were causing global warming until about the 1980s. In contrast, at the outset of its own massive economic expansion, China knows that it is causing harm to the global atmosphere. It therefore has a responsibility to act, at least within its means. Again, this does not minimize the much greater responsibility of the world's rich countries, but if China can afford to acquire new advanced weapons systems and send men into space, it can surely afford to divert much more money and know-how to reducing its 484

See Paul G. Harris, 'A Political Setback in the War on Global Warming', South China Morning Post (21 November 2002), p.18.

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own impact on the global environment. For this reason, China may be judged quite harshly by future generations and will be under great moral scrutiny. Indeed, it may even bear some legal responsibility for future climate change that it could arguably have prevented. China could – and we argue should – show true leadership on climate change, something that has been lacking among the developed countries. Alas, bearing in mind what we have said, it seems unlikely that China would undertake such a pro-environment leadership role in the Asian Pacific region or among developing countries more broadly. There are clearly many Chinese scientists and concerned officials that would like China to do much more. But there are also vested economic interests, exacerbated by China's infatuation with rapid economic growth and wealth creation, which overwhelm the environmentalists. There is a burgeoning car culture – the same mistake made in the West – with a rapacious appetite for petroleum. More broadly, there is an effort to emulate the West's development and Western people's lifestyles, but with this comes an emulation of their terrible history of pollution.485 This is unfortunate, because a concerted transition to an economy that produces fewer GHGs is possible, especially with financial and technical aid from the developed world. However, such aid would have to come with clear restrictions that the Chinese government has shown an unwillingness to accept. The upshot is that in the future there will be some improvements that limit the increases in China's GHG emissions compared to what they might be otherwise. For the most part, however, at least in the near term, it will be business as usual. Implication 3. Foreign policy coordination in China improves the effectiveness of the UNFCCC The growing climate change concerns built into both international and national programs and China‘s rapid integration into the world tend to make China more amenable to the UNFCCC. Based on the discussion in the last chapters, the book has demonstrated that foreign policy coordination in China has improved the effectiveness of the UNFCCC. Regime effectiveness comprises two overlapping ideas: first, that the members of the regime abide by its norms and rules, and second, that the regime achieves objectives or fulfills certain purposes486. The development of domestic foreign policy coordination in China improves both parts of the UNFCCC‘s effectiveness. Concerning the aspect that China abides by the UNFCCC‘s norms and rules, most important of all, the building of a foreign policy coordination institution is one important requirement for parties in documents from ―UNFCCC/CP/ 1995 - UNFCCC/CP/2001/‖, and emphasized in the Marrakech Accords. The development of foreign policy coordination in China is a good indicator for the effectiveness of the UNFCCC. Besides that, Chinese bureaucracies show more and more interest in abiding by the UNFCCC because of the three factors that follow: the interests imposed by the UNFCCC through the GEF, the learning process in COP negotiation, and the norms for collective action against the climate change according to my discussion in the last three empirical study chapters. In its national development strategy of China 21st Agenda, ―China wants to promote the coordination of activities undertaken by various governmental departments and to work out measures of 485 486

See Harris, 'Tradition, Consumption, and Environmental Governance in China'. See Andreas Hasenclever, Peter Mayer, and Volker Rittberger: ―Interest, Power, Knowledge: the Study of International Regimes‖, Mershon International Studies Review (Spring 1996) 40, 177-228.

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adjusting to climate change. China participates in follow-up activities associated with the Climate Change Framework Convention and the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change and fulfills China's obligations with respect to the convention. China works to strengthen international cooperation in climate research, promote international academic exchanges, and the timely collection of global climatic data. China works to learn about scientific and technological development trends abroad, and introduces advanced foreign science and technology to China‖.487 With respect to the effectiveness that the UNFCCC achieves objectives or fulfills certain purposes, as we know, the GHG emissions of China each year is 700 million tons of carbon and 3000 tons of methane, ranked second in the world. Based on the calculation of China‘s situation in 2020, China GHG emissions will be 17.7 hundred million tons of carbon. Per capita GHG emissions are 1.18 tons on the occasion. In 2020, China‘s GHG emission will rank the first in the world488. China clearly matters when it comes to such global environmental issues as climate change. Without substantial efforts on the part of China to limit future carbon dioxide emissions, any measures undertaken by other countries to address the climate change question will be negated--hence, the importance of China's approach to climate change and its role in international negotiations. Thus, the goal of the UNFCCC is difficult to be achieved without reducing its huge GHG emission in China. China has made some contribution to climate change with the development of the climate change foreign policy coordination. The issue of global climate change has been listed in China‘s state scientific development plans, the 8th Five-year plan (1991-1995), the 9th Five-year plan (19962000) and 10th Five-year plan (2001-2005) for national economic and social development. Before 1996, coal accounted for about 75% of China‘s total commercial energy consumption. In 2000, the ratio of coal in China‘s total commercial energy consumption decreased by 7%. However, as the biggest developing country and an economically opening country, China tries to seek a balance between sharing the international responsibilities in the UNFCCC and developing its economy, between the energy rebuilding and the huge economic costs. However, as the biggest developing country and the opening country, China has to seek a balance between sharing the international responsibilities in the UNFCCC and developing its economy, between the clean energy rebuilding and the huge economic costs. Implication 4. The new thinking on foreign policy coordination in China. My book argues that the international regimes play a determinative role in the development of foreign policy coordination in the case of climate change. While external pressures brought to bear through negotiations have pushed global warming on to the domestic agenda in China, the foreign policy coordination of China also shows new meaning for Chinese participation in the UNFCCC to manage global warming. In this sense, consensus (Tong Yi Kou Jing) building, bargaining and final policymaking, the three constituents of foreign policy coordination in my concept, offer a different means.

487

China‘s State Council(ed.):China‘s Agenda 21-White paper on China‘s population, environment, and development in the 21st century,(Beijing: Environmental Science Press, 1994). 488 Based on the documents from the center for energy environment and climate change of China and Energy Research Institute: Proceeding of Climate Change Policy Assessment, 1995-2002 (domestic materials).

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As we know, the structure of bureaucratic authority and the realities of bureaucratic practice are the independent variables in traditional theory on policymaking in China489 to explain the characteristics of Chinese policymaking. However, based on the last three empirical study chapters in which I apply international regimes as independent variables, I find that the international regimes have transformed them from the original meanings suggested in the traditional China politics studies, taking the UNFCCC as a case. The first concern is building a basic consensus (Tong Yi Kou Jing). According to traditional theory on China‘s policymaking, there is no single leader or bureaucracy that can dominate in policymaking, moreover, China‘s political system prevents any ministry from coercing another ministry to do its bidding; consensus is built at the top by coordination agencies set up for the purpose, and on which all relevant leaders are represented. However, according to my discussion in chapter 4, 5 and 6, the ―window agency‖ plays an important role in creating basic consensus based on its priority. The ―window agency‖ will distribute the information to different bureaucracies and collect their proposals or advice; later, the ―window agency‖ will coordinate the different preferences or interests among different bureaucracies; finally, a consensus policy will be executed in the interaction with the UNFCCC generally by the ―window agency.‖ The second concern is about bargaining. I find that bargaining based on knowledge capacity dominates in foreign policy coordination in China. There is a complex bargaining process through the foreign policy coordination on climate change to build a consensus (Tong Yi Kou Jing). The sections with monopoly knowledge take priority over policy-making in that field. These sections could be called core sections at the climate change foreign policy coordination, including: the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Science and Technology, State Meteorological Administration, the Ministry of Finance, State Environmental Protection Administration, and the Ministry of Agriculture are the vice heads of this committee ( Fu Zu Zhang Dan Wei). These core sections at the coordination level get their priorities mainly from their unique knowledge and capacity building. The third concern is about the making of the final decision. Opposite to traditional Chinese policymaking theory490, it argues that at each level of the foreign policy coordination, agency representatives make decisions or proposals by a rule of consensus. In a climate change case, if they all agree, the coordination institution will make the consensus policy back to the level of the UNFCCC through the ―window agency.‖ However, if the related bureaucrats cannot reach consensus, then the decision is referred to the ―window agency‖ instead of higher levels because the higher levels cannot cope with so complicated professional issues as climate change, and the ―no voice‖( Bu Biao Tai) policy is feed back to the UNFCCC. ―No voice‖ (Bu Biao Tai) is not a consensus but a usual outcome of foreign policy coordination in China. Mr. Huang, an official in the Ministry of Science and Technology, argues that we can fulfill our national interests by ―no voice‖ diplomacy policy (Bu Biao Tai) in climate change.

489

Lieberthal and Okensenberg: David Lampton Kenneth G. Lieberthal Bureaucracy, politics, and decision making in Post-Mao China, (Berkeley: University of California Press,1992). 490 Susan Shirk: ―The Chinese Political System and the political Strategy for economic reform‖, in Kenneth G. Lieberthal and David Lampton(ed.): Bureaucracy, politics, and decision making in Post-Mao China, (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1992), page 256.

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10.3 CONCLUSION Indeed, international environmental regimes have begun to affect China and let China pay steadily increasing interest to the global environment for a long history, when Premier Zhou Enlai attended the United Nations–sponsored Stockholm Conference in 1973. Just after ―Tianan Men Square Incident‖ in 1989, China was almost fully-isolated by the international community except in the international environmental diplomacy area. From that time, international regimes play a stronger role to affect, change, and engage China, called an environmentally engaged China. China has also established many national foreign policy coordination bureaucracies to deal with worldwide environmental issues. My book has some contributions for reconsidering the relationship between international regimes and China‘s policymaking such as the following: (1) evaluating existing paradigms with respect to foreign policy coordination in China; (2) analyzing independent variables (the UNFCCC), intermediate variables (interests distribution, adoption of information and knowledge, and creation of new institution design) and the dependent variables (foreign policy coordination); (3) testing the hypobook that the UNFCCC can explain the development of foreign policy coordination in China pithily; (4) developing a systematic explanatory framework to analyze how the UNFCCC has contributed to foreign policy coordination in China. It also offers some thoughts as to the implications of the change of policymaking in China influenced by international factors. It is helpful not only in the environmental policy realm, but also in economic and security realms too. On the contrary to the arguments presumed by the fragmented model, international regimes transform China‘s politics so that there allows ample room for foreign policy coordination. China‘s policymakers have become adept at using linkages with international actors to limit resistance to domestic regulatory reforms. The push for an institution basis for coordination has been necessitated not by pressures rising from the bottom up but by the infiltration and appropriation of knowledge and resources from the outside in. By concluding all my views and discussions in the last chapters, I detail the three approaches to explain why the international regimes help the development of China‘s foreign policy coordination, taking the UNFCCC as convincing evidence. In conclusion, I believe that foreign policy coordination in China will bring a more brilliant future for controlling climate change. From this book, we can know China has taken positive steps forward when the UNFCCC successfully imposes interests, knowledge, and domestic based effects on foreign policy coordination in China. The Chinese government has also demonstrated its sensitivity and willingness to the UNFCCC‘s concerns for collective action against climate change.

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Chapter 11

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TWO LOGICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE GAMES: ENVIRONMENTAL GOVERNANCE AND KNOW-HOW COMPETITION Global warming and the resulting climate change present the world with major and potentially devastating challenges. They lead to environmental degradation/scarcity and a radical reform of the energy mix among industrial countries, in addition to other non491 traditional security concerns. From the 1992 Rio Summit through the Kyoto Conference and the Bali Roadmap, a generation has passed since the world's governments began to seriously consider the problems of global warming and the resulting climate change. It is now patently clear that the world should get together to combat the climate disaster. However, we are always confused with two questions: why has global climate governance been so difficult, and what factors hamper the effectiveness of international cooperation. This article will give an explanation to two logics of climate change games by linking environmental governance and know-how competition. For those concerned about climate change, collective actions and regimes designed to limit carbon emissions are at the core of global warming concerns. However, preventing catastrophic climate change is actually an energy challenge that leads to dramatic know-how competition in both new and alternative energy. In the international collective action against global warming, on the one hand, the pursuit of rational common goods leads to cooperation; on the other hand, the pursuit of rational self-interest or preference (in carbon emissions and energy know-how) among different states often frustrates international cooperation. Thus there are two logics of the climate change games: the logic of collective action in international environmental cooperation; and the logic of power competition in energy innovation, which is the foundation of power transition in this century. The energy revolution induced by global warming includes the discovery and exclusive possession of new energy 491

Some of these ideas and a discussion of climate change can be found in: Yu Hongyuan, ―Environmental Change and Asia-Pacific: China Responds to Global Warming," Global Change, Peace, and Security, vol. 17, issue 1, 2005; ―Knowledge and Climate Change Policy Coordination in China,‖ East Asia: An International Quarterly. vol. 21, no. 3; ―Global Environmental Regimes and Policy Coordination in China,‖ Journal of Chinese Political Science, vol. 9, no. 2, 2004; and Global Warming and China's Environmental Diplomacy in Nova Science Publishers (2008).

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sources, along with revolutionary progress in the promotion and application of new energy technology, improved social and economic efficiency, and government control over energy use. Not surprisingly, the transition of power and hegemony in the future will most likely be connected to energy. In the fight against global warming, Western countries not only need to deal with the 492 failure of collective action among Annex I countries (developed countries), but also resolve interest conflicts between themselves. They also have to encourage developing countries to share concrete responsibilities in global governance on global climate change. Particularly, the rich countries—the European Union, Japan and the United States—have and will continue to achieve domination in the process of climate change politics, and they will compete for leadership in new and alternative energy, which is at the core of a low-carbon economy. China, which is the world's largest economic powerhouse and polluter, is central to both regional and global efforts against global warming, particularly in the post-Kyoto climate negotiations. The two-layer games in global climate change politics will pose double challenges on the country‘s domestic political economy and diplomacy. China‘s current development route is still a growth-oriented, unsustainable and resource-constrained economic model, and the country faces the crucial need to promote development while joining the global struggle against global warming and contributing to global economic growth. The government in Beijing seeks to act as a ―responsible stakeholder in the international system,‖ while pursuing a ―scientific outlook on development‖ in its national economic development. On the one hand, given the growing absolute carbon emissions, 493 China has turned into an ―environmental superpower;‖ on the other hand, its energyintensive economy is not only pushing up growth rates in the United States, Japan, the EU and other economies, but also strengthening the capacity building for low-carbon and new energy. With these considerations in mind, in this paper, I look at some of the consequences and characteristics of the two-layer games in global climate change politics. Then I describe international and domestic implications for China.

11.1. TWO LOGICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE GAMES In this analysis of the two logics of the international struggle against climate change, the first focus is on how to limit carbon emissions in different countries on the basis of the global 494 collective action theory. The other focus is on the competitive advantage of nations 495 resulting from energy know-how. 492

The U.S. government argued that the Kyoto Protocol was unfair to the United States, and the U.S. Senate voted 95-0 to warn against the Kyoto treaty in 1997. The Bush administration withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol in 2001. Statement by EPA Administrator Christine Whitman on Climate Change (March 6, 2001), available at www.yosemite.epa/gov/opa/admpress. 493 ―Melting Asia: China, India, and Climate Change,‖ Economist vol. 387 No. 8583(2008), pp.29-30. 494 See Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1965), pp. 1-10. 495 See Michael E. Porter, The Competitive Advantage of Nations (Free Press, New York, 1990).

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11.1.1. The Logic of Collective Action in International Environmental Cooperation The future of the international struggle against global warming depends on collective 496 action and shared responsibilities. The international regime for averting climate change has sought to overcome this problem since the early 1990s. But the international effort against global warming has produced mixed results. The explanations of both liberals and constructivists look powerful in articulating an ideal condition or performance for collective action, but somewhat thin in explaining the effectiveness of the collective action which has been undertaken. The effectiveness of collective action involves two overlapping ideas: first, which members of the regime abide by its norms and rules, and second whether the regime 497 achieves its objectives or fulfills certain purposes. Apparently, the effectiveness of the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol is very low. These divergences affect the effectiveness of the UNFCCC so much that a new theoretical analysis beyond constructivism or neoliberalism should be built. Under Mancur Olson‘s collective action theory, three variables—selective inducement, optimal group structure or institution building, and major power—will determine the effectiveness of collective action. Major power interaction determines the rules and legitimacy of collective action. Selective inducements shape the pay-off structure of collective action. Institution building will help maintain structure stability in collective action. Among these three variables, major power plays a significant role. First, selective inducements depend on the preference structure and group scale. Second, the flexibility and payoff structure of the Kyoto Protocol affect the effectiveness of collective action against climate change. Third, when an established power abandons global collective action in some areas, some emerging powers will replace its role and push the collective action agenda forward. A reduction of carbon emissions is at the core of collective action against climate change, and it has an impact on the material and physical foundations needed for the survival of a state. Since no country, by itself, would be able to substantially influence the climate system, 498 according to the principle of summation, all states in the world should make efforts to limit carbon emissions. The key concern is the payoff structure for carbon emission reductions among different signatory countries. Currently, most scholars have introduced market mechanisms to resolve the collective action problems. These models are designed and forwarded to the carbon credit market. Examples include CDM, IET and JI. Homer-Dixon argued that climate change problems may soon increase the level of 499 conflict between poor and rich countries. Some Western scholars termed developing countries‘ climate policy the ―maxi-mini principle‖—one based on the maximization of rights 496

Thomas Risse-Kappen, Bringing Transnational Relations Back In: Non-State Actors, Domestic Structures and International Institutions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995). 497 See Andreas Hasenclever, Peter Mayer, and Volker Rittberger, ―Interest, Power, Knowledge: The Study of International Regimes,‖ Mershon International Studies Review (1996) 40, pp. 177-228. 498 Inge Kaul, Isabelle Grunberg, Marc A. Stern, Global Public Goods: International Cooperation in the 21st Century, New York, 1999, pp. 48-56. 499 Thomas Homer-Dixon, Environment, Scarcity, and Violence (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1999).

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and minimization of responsibilities. Under this view, some developing states are only interested in ―free rides‖ and in gaining access to technical expertise, foreign aid, and 500 information in order to further their goal of economic development. Christopher D. Stone used the ―free-rider‖ behaviors among poor countries in climate change as strong evidence to 501 support carbon emission limitations in poor countries.

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11.1.2. International Competition for New Eenergy Energy is fundamental to the prosperity and security of nations. The next-generation energy will determine not only the future of the international economic system but also the transition of power. Competition in the energy chain will determine the result of the power struggle based on innovation and influence power transition in the international system. The new energy is not only an important constituent of the next-generation energy system, but also will change the scenario of the future international power configuration. 502 503 As Daniel Yergin of the ―American oil hegemony‖ and Paul Kennedy of the ―British coal hegemony‖ indicate, the prerequisite condition of significant structural changes in the international system is an energy power revolution based on the emergence of nextgeneration energy-led countries. Technological innovation is of key importance in the energy power structure. 504 Modelski's long-cycle theory, Kondratev‘s long-wave theory, and Schumpeter‘s 505 economic-cycle theory have all confirmed the historical contribution of the technological revolution and institutional innovation to the rise and fall of great powers. They all emphasized the effect of a ―great technological breakthrough‖ on the world economic cycle, indicating that the cycle should owe its rise to the technological breakthrough, which mainly happened in energy areas such as the electricity steam engine and the internal-combustion engine. Michael E. Porter, in his book The Competitive Advantage of Nations explained why nations should make an innovation-based model of comparative advantages a priority in 506 developing their competitive advantage. With the heated debate on collective action against climate change, Western countries have monopolized the future energy system based on new and alternative energy. Peter Evens once pointed out that every major power that dominated the international system had some know-how advantages.507 For now, it seems that a low-carbon economy and clean energy will ultimately determine the future of energy power transition. Jonathan and other scholars 500

Samuel S. Kim, ―International Organizations in Chinese Foreign Policy,‖ Annals, No. 519 ( Jan. 1992) , p. 151. 501 See Christopher D. Stone, Defending the Global Commons, Philippe Sands, ed., Greening International Law, Earthscan Publication Limited, 1993, p. 36. 502

Daniel Yergin, ―Ensuring Energy Security,‖ Foreign Affairs, March 1, 2006, pp. 69-77.

503

Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, Vintage, 1968. George Modelski, Long Cycles in World Politics, Seattle: University of Washington Press, 1987. 505 Charles Kindleberger, The World in Depression 1929-1939, London: Allen Lane, The Penguin Press, 1973. 506 See Michael E. Porter, The Competitive Advantage of Nations, Free Press, New York, 1990. 507 Peter Evens, ―Transnational Linkages and the Economic Role of the State,‖ Bringing the State Back In, T. Skocpol and Peter Evans, et al. New York: Cambridge University Press. 504

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recognized that the EU‘s environmental policy geared toward boosting the bloc‘s competitiveness and promoting climate negotiations could also boost its creativity and 508 competitive advantage. In 2007, the Stern Review Report on the Economics of Climate 509 Change and the Low Carbon Economy Report by the Royal Institute of International Affairs both confirmed that the EU promoted climate negotiations not just because it was a forerunner in a low-carbon economy, but also wanted to achieve dominance in global governance and lay foundations for the future economy. U.S. senior officers Paula Dobriansky, Richard Lee Armitage and Joseph Nye once proposed that U.S. involvement in climate negotiations could enhance the nation‘s ―smart power‖ and the competitiveness of its 510 industry. Western countries always use the fast growing carbon emissions in new emerging economies as a strong explanation for global warming. National competitive advantages are associated with carbon emission reductions. For those who advocate climate diplomacy, environmental capacity is one important part of a state's comprehensive national power. Thomas Homer-Dixon supports limitations in developing countries‘ environmental capacity 511 and economic growth. James N. Rosenau uses the concept of a ―balance of payments‖ instead of a ―balance of power‖ in global environmental governance, and argues that developing countries should share the costs and responsibilities for global environmental 512 protection.

11.2. THE LOGIC OF COLLECTIVE ACTION IN CLIMATE CHANGE

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11.2.1. The Different Responses of the EU and the U.S. The EU‘s climate diplomacy aims to serve the bloc‘s leadership in global governance. The EU has been closely involved in the international debate on global warming and climate change. EU countries have always been ―at the forefront of efforts to strengthen the 513 international commitments on climate change.‖ The bloc plays the role of a leader and advocate of international action against global warming and climate change. The EU has used its dual status as the biggest economic bloc and its growing role as a major advocate of international commitments on climate change. The EU is one of the largest donors of 508

Jonathan Golub ed., Global Competition and EU Environmental Policy, New York: Routledge, 1998. Nicholas Stern, ―Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change,‖ http://www.hmtreasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_index.cfm. 510 Foreign Relations Council, ―National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency,‖ http://www.cfr.org/publication/11683/. 511 Thomas Homer-Dixon, Environment, Scarcity, and Violence, Princeton NJ.: Princeton University Press, 1999, pp. 26-43. 512 See James N. Rosenau and Ernst-Otto Czempiel, Governance Without Government: Order and Change in World Politics, Cambridge University Press, 1992, pp. 12-14. 513 Grubb, Michael, ―The UK and European Union: Britannia Waives the Rules?,‖ Detlef Sprinz (ed.), ―Climate Change After Marrakech: The Role of Europe in the Global Arena,‖ available at, German Policy in Dialogue, vol. 2, No. 6, 4th Quarter 2001, Trier, Germany. 509

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environmental aid and the strongest supporters of the Kyoto Protocol during COP 514 conferences. The EU‘s leadership on climate change has international legitimacy. The EU spends ―more resources on initiating more awareness of climate impacts in 515 developing countries.‖ Moreover, European countries try their best to persuade other countries to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. At the EU Council Meeting on May 31, 2001, the EU decided to strengthen the capacity building of developing countries against global warming. The EU supported Kyoto mechanisms such as joint implementation among Annex I countries, but was concerned that the U.S. would avoid a reduction in domestic carbon emissions by trading environmental emissions with developing countries. A carbon tax is also a good 516 experience for EU climate change policy implementation. The policy has been introduced by many signatories to the UNFCCC. In 2004, the EU‘s willingness to trade support for Russia‘s accession to the WTO for ratification of the Kyoto Protocol gave an unprecedented impetus to the international struggle against climate change. In 2007, the EU‘s endeavors saved the Bali Roadmap, preventing sharp conflicts between rich and poor countries. The United States, which is the largest emitter, is central to the global collective action. Since 1997, the U.S. State Department has published its annual Environmental Diplomacy 517 Report, which evaluates global climate change diplomacy. ―The United States was a global leader in the early development of policies and regulatory programs to protect environmental 518 quality.‖ Under the Clinton administration, the U.S. announced a $1 billion five-year effort to help developing countries cut emissions and meet the goals of the climate change treaty. However, after 2001, the Bush administration put climate change on the back burner. The U.S. government argued that the Kyoto Protocol was unfair to the United States, and the Bush administration withdrew from the Kyoto Protocol in 2001. Under the Bush administration, the U.S. has shifted more responsibility to private industry to guide pollution-cutting efforts in 519 the Third World. In 2001, the Bush administration declared that it would reduce the amount of money set aside in the U.S. budget for programs intended to help countries such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Mexico, Poland, and Russia, in order to increase 520 their industrial development with only minimal contributions to global warming. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina battered the U.S. Gulf Coast and caused great economic costs. Hurricane Katrina forced the Bush administration to place an emphasis on global environmental protection. The United States is working with other countries through a series of bilateral or

514

Sandrine Labory, ―EU Climate Change Policy and Flexible Mechanisms: Where Do We Stand After the Bonn Meeting?‖ available at , EU Commentary, Centre for European Policy Studies (July 24, 1998). 515 Sprinz, Detlef, ―Germany: European Leadership, Active Climate Policy and Wall-Fall Profits,‖ Detlef Sprinz (ed.), ―Climate Change After Marrakech: The Role of Europe in the Global Arena,‖ available at. German Policy in Dialogue, Volume 2, Number 6, 4th Quarter 2001, Trier, Germany. 516 Richard N. Cooper, ―Toward a Real Global Warming Treaty,‖ Foreign Affairs, vol. 77, issue 2(1998), pp. 66-77. 517 The U.S. State Department: http://www.state.gov/www/global/oes/earth.html 518 Gary C. Bryner, ―The United States: ‗Sorry—Not Our Problem,‘‖ in William M. Lafferty and James Meadowcroft (eds.), Implementing Sustainable Development: Strategies and Initiatives in High Consumption Societies (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000), p. 273. 519 John Heilprin, in Washington, ―Bush Aims to Cut Aid on Global Warming,‖ SCMP, July 8, 2001, p. 4. 520 John Heilprin, in Washington, ―Bush Aims to Cut Aid on Global Warming,‖ SCMP, July 8, 2001, p. 4.

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multilateral forums launched by top government leaders on global warming. These include Major Economies Meetings, G8, and AP6. Common goods mean joint supply and the impossibility of excluding others from 521 consumption once these goods are supplied to some members of the community. This means that any country, including India, China, Japan and the U.S., should contribute to mitigating global warming, and that they cannot seek to withhold goods from other 522 countries. Thus, Western countries are working hard to avoid ―free-rider‖ behaviors and are trying to persuade China to joint the campaign. The U.S., EU and other developed countries are urging China, India and other developing countries to assume responsibility for reducing carbon emissions as soon as possible. Otherwise a rapid increase of carbon emissions in the developing world may counterbalance the endeavors of the rich countries. The Bush administration argues that the Kyoto Protocol is unfair to the United States and other industrialized nations because it exempts 80 percent of the world, particularly China, 523 from compliance. Exclusiveness No Exclusiveness

Private Goods Common Pool Resource

Collective Goods Public Goods

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Figure 1: The Common Goods

Interestingly, in some carefully selected areas, developing countries have discretely cooperated with the U.S. in UNFCCC negotiations. For instance, China agreed with the U.S. that employing adaptation measures—such as transferring funds and technologies from developed to developing countries to help the latter minimize the impact of climate change— was the preferable way of addressing the problem. Among developed countries, the EU places more emphasis on mitigation than on adaptation in climate change negotiations. But the United States, China, India and members of the OPEC believe that adaptation should be a priority. By shifting the focus of climate talks to adaptation, both the U.S. and China could actually avoid hurting their economies and refused immediate commitment to fixed emission cuts. Moreover, both the U.S. and China are skeptical about a global carbon tax supported by the EU as a mitigation measure from which revenue could be spent to finance technological transfers. They believe that both producers in China and consumers in America would be overburdened.

521

Dennis C. Mueller, Public Choice II – A Revised Edition of Public Choice, Cambridge University Press, 1989, p. 11. 522 Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action, Harvard University Press, 1965, p. 14. 523 Environmental Diplomacy, Environment and U.S. Foreign Policy (State Department, January 20 2001). Retrieved from the World Wide Web:

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11.2.2. Developed against Developing: Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Equity in Collective Action against Global Warming While the U.S. and other developed countries enjoy a relatively plentiful, wasteful and competitive use of energy, most developing countries struggle for the very basic needs of industrialization, urbanization and life‘s physical necessities. The developing world considers it an inalienable right to advance its economy and enjoy the same standard of living as people in developed countries. It‘s an inalienable right of the developing world to further develop its economy, improve living standards, and enjoy the same living standards as people in the developed countries. Of the world's six billion people, one-third enjoys electricity. And one third—two billion people—simply lack access to modern energy services and live on less than $2 per day. For the poor countries, ensuring economic growth and lifting people out of poverty are necessarily important priorities. Greater energy use by these countries and greater 524 emissions from them are therefore inevitable. For China, the largest developing country, global warming issues have been intimately linked with efforts to modernize the economy and the energy strategy employed to fuel that modernization. If China decreases its emissions of greenhouse gas (GHG) by 10-20%, its GDP will decrease by 2%. When per capita income 525 grows by 5.1%, GHG emissions increase by 1.29%. Mukund Govind Rajan argues that ―India‘s sustained increase in energy production and use was to play a central role in fueling economic development. There is a very low per capita consumption of greenhouse gases as 526 compared to the world average.‖ According to Mukund Govind Rajan, ―It is the developed countries which have created and continue to add to the threats of climate change, and it is primarily their responsibility to reverse the situation by setting limits on their emissions of greenhouse gases. Developing countries contribute little to the problem, though their share is increasing. Their resources are scarce and they do not have ready access to the required technologies. They need technical and financial assistance to adopt environmentally benign technologies. Even given adequate resources their socioeconomic backwardness may prevent 527 them from fully attaining the desired results.‖ The figure below shows that different states can have different payoffs and utility in the international campaign against global warming. Some states‘ payoff is very high, while for others it is very low. Some states have no payoff at all, but they can also enjoy the utility from the cooperation. Even those who do nothing to limit their carbon emissions can share the benefits of reduced carbon emissions, in disregard of the moral hazard, ill reputation or 528 punishment involved. Such ―free-riding‖ behaviors frustrate the endeavors of other 524

According to International Energy Agency data, the per capita total primary energy supply of the U.S. was more than six times higher than China‘s and nearly 15 times that of India‘s in 2004; the per capita emissions of carbon dioxide by these countries followed a similar pattern. 525 Zhang Zhongxiang, ―Macroeconomic Effect of CO2 Emissions Limits: A Computer General Equilibrium Analysis,‖ a paper presented at the 7th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environment and Resource Economists, Lisbon. 526 Mukund Govind Rajan, Global Environmental Politics: India and the North-South Politics of Global Environmental Issues (Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 259. 527 Mukund Govind Rajan, Global Environmental Politics: India and the North-South Politics of Global Environmental Issues (Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 105. 528 See Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action, Harvard University Press, 1965, p. 15.

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countries. Any country, including China, can try to enjoy the technology transfer, environmental loans and other utilities without trying to reduce carbon emissions. On the other hand, different countries will have different utilities from international cooperation against global warming. Poor countries pay more attention to technology improvement and economic development than environmental gains. On the contrary, most developed countries prefer a better natural environment and put more emphasis on environmental security. From this point of view, developing countries should contribute more to reducing carbon emissions. The game theory is the study of people‘s behavior in strategic situations, so it can be used to analyze the two logics of the climate change games when people make different choices on cooperation in climate change. Developing countries have two choices: A) refrain from reducing greenhouse gas emissions unless developed countries provide the technology and funds; B) reduce carbon emissions unconditionally. If developing countries choose strategy B, as they have promised to share global responsibility for global warming, developed countries will be confronted with two choices: C) decide against providing technology and funds to developing countries; D) decide to provide technology and funds to developing countries. If developed countries choose C, developing countries may consider slowing down the increase in their carbon emissions because they lack advanced technology and funds. So the gains will be –1 and –3. If developed countries choose D, developing countries will be able to afford to reduce carbon emissions by building a low-carbon society. So they both gain +5. Developing Countries Developed Countries C D

A

B

-5，-5

-1，-3

-5，-5

+5，+5

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Figure 2: The game between developing and developed countries

Developed countries are the principal emitters of pollutants and should therefore bear the primary responsibilities in addressing the climate change problem. The principle of ―common but differentiated responsibilities‖ is a global consensus in the UNFCCC and other international environmental laws. This principle means that the industrialized, wealthy countries of the world bear responsibility for global warming because of their historic emissions of greenhouse gases for more than 300 years. Furthermore, developed countries‘ per capita emissions remain far above those of developing countries, meaning that their responsibility continues. According to the UNFCCC, ―The largest share of the historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries, [while] per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low and the share of global emissions originating in developing countries is growing to meet their social and 529 development needs.‖ However, developing countries are deeply dissatisfied with developed countries in this respect because the latter refuse to pay sufficient attention to the technological backwardness of developing countries as far as energy is concerned. Developed 529

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, May 9, 1992, www.unfccc.int.

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countries tend to play down the role of technology transfer while maintaining high prices for intellectual property rights linked with these technologies. Since its inception, the Global Environment Facility (GEF) has promoted technology transfer, grants and loans from the developed world for reducing carbon emissions through a series of projects in developing countries. However, since its launch in 1991, the GEF has 530 only allocated about $4 billion in grants. Through CDM, industrialized countries could also meet part of their obligations for reducing their emissions under the Kyoto Protocol by receiving credits for investing in projects that reduce carbon emissions in developing countries.

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11.2.3. International Norms and Climate Change Cooperation in poor Countries The UNFCCC reads, ―Acknowledging that change in the Earth's climate and its adverse effects are a common concern of humankind; acknowledging that the global nature of climate change calls for the widest possible cooperation by all countries and their participation in an effective and appropriate international response, in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities and their social and economic conditions; determined to protect the climate system for present and future generations...‖ Katzenstein argues that the concepts of international norms refer to collective expectations for the proper behavior of actors with a given identity. Norms thus either define 531 (or constitute) identities or prescribe (or regulate) behaviors, or they do both. This means that international norms in collective action influence the behavior of individual states. Considering the question of what is the most important international factor motivating China to improve its climate change coordination work, it is necessary to analyze the influence of various interest-based factors on the global climate change action from 2003 to 532 2007.

D 29%

C 36%

A 29%

B 6%

Figure 3: What is the most important international factor affecting coordination work in China? 2003

530

http://www.gefchina.org.cn/

531

Katzenstein, The Culture of National Security Norms and Identity in World Politics, (1996), 12-31. 532 The meanings of different options: A. International norms; B. International expertise and international training; C. International environmental loans and aid; D. International negotiation requirements; E. Other.

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A 10%

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B 0% C 25%

D 65%

Figure 4: What is the most important international factor affecting coordination work in China? 2007

11.3. THE LOGIC OF INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION FOR NEW ENERGY

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Generally speaking, climate change is a major issue that has brought a lot of pressure to global energy and environmental conservation efforts. Although most countries have recognized the seriousness of the crisis and the need for emission reductions, the United States and the EU are still thinking of ways to curb carbon emissions and reduce demand for energy in developing countries. The conclusion is clear: on the surface, climate change is just a problem of collective action on how to handle the crisis and stabilize carbon emissions, but on the deep level it is a problem of energy sources and development potential that could affect the transition of power in the international system in the long term.

11.3.1. Transition in the Traditional Energy System The contemporary world is based on oil, and global energy security is crucial to economic growth and people's livelihood in all countries. Energy is also fundamental to the prosperity and security of nations. The advent of globalization, the growing gap between the rich and poor, and the need to fight global warming are all intertwined with energy concerns. There is a pressing need for strategic thinking about the international energy system. Supply and demand on the international energy market are imbalanced. Areas rich in oil resources are still at the center of geopolitical, political and military conflicts. Energy exporting nations use energy weapons to implement their political and economic goals. Major energy suppliers— from Russia to Iran to Venezuela—have been increasingly able and willing to use their energy resources to pursue their strategic and political objectives.533 It is also important to take a long-term perspective, deepen energy cooperation, increase energy efficiency, and facilitate the development and use of new energy resources.

533

Foreign Relations Council, ―National http://www.cfr.org/publication/11683/.

Security

Consequences

of

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Dependency,‖

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Climate change will bring dramatic changes in the international economic system, and national competition advantages will be built on the basis of clean and alternative energy. The advent of global warming and energy security pose a great challenge to humankind. Competition in the energy chain will determine power struggles based on innovation and influence power transition in the international system. New energy is not only an important constituent of the next-generation energy system, but will also change the scenario of the future international power arrangement. Preventing an environmental disaster like climate change is, at its core, an energy challenge. Different economies struggle and compete for this historical opportunity to increase energy efficiency, and facilitate the development and use of new energy resources.

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11.3.2. Power Transition and the New Energy Chain There is a correlation between energy competition driven by climate change and the international political economic environment, know-how, ability and possession of resources. The interaction of these factors constitutes a complete energy chain. The energy chain comprises the institutions and activities related to the search for, development, and utilization of energy resources. The discovery of new energy sources, revolutionary changes in the energy chain, and the corresponding changes in the political economy and the innovation system, have combined to lay the groundwork for a more effective use of energy, which is fundamental to the rise of big powers. Historically, the emergence of great powers has been accompanied by a rise of a new generation of energy. Since the establishment of the modern international system, the energy chain has undergone two major changes. The first change was the first industrial revolution of the 1860s ushered in by the United Kingdom and marked by a transition from ―the fuel-wood or bio-fuel times‖ to the ―coal era.‖ The second change was the second industrial revolution of the 1920s started by the United States and marked by a transition from the ―coal era‖ to the ―oil age.‖ Today a third revolution is taking place based on clean and low-carbon energy. Under the long-cycle theory, possession and use of new energy is closely related with national technological and institutional advances. Countries with a dominant position in new energy must have an institutional and technical advantage stemming from their possession and use of new energy. They have to break through constraints imposed by previous economic, political structures and ideology, which leads to major changes in the global industrial chain, allocation of resources and national competitiveness. Therefore we have every reason to believe that those new energy powerhouses will ultimately change the global arrangement of power through international competition in the future. As history shows, every significant structural change in the international system has been due to the revolution in the energy chain. The country or non-state entity that seized a new energy chain or a part of it attempted to challenge the international status quo.

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11.3.3. The Domination of Rich Countries in New Energy Competition As the scarcity of traditional energy and climate change emerged as serious problems, economic growth patterns in various countries gradually evolved in a direction that suited new energy. The EU and the United States as global superpowers aspire to corner future energy markets through negotiations on reducing carbon emissions coupled with a desire to dominate the drive toward clean energy and energy efficiency and innovation throughout building a climate change regime. In December 2007, the United States passed a new energy bill that aims to boost the development of clean and alternative energy. President Bush said, ―Energy dependence harms the U.S. economically through high and volatile prices at the gas pump, creates pollution and contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. It threatens our national security by making us 534 vulnerable to hostile regimes in unstable regions of the world.‖ Under the new energy bill, production of renewable fuels is expected to exceed 136 billion liters annually by 2022. More than half of all ethanol must come from sources other than corn, such as wood chips or switchgrass. The law also sets tougher efficiency standards for the construction of new commercial properties and improvements in federal buildings. The EU has taken many measures to reduce carbon emissions among member states in line with the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. There are four major objectives of the EU‘s climate policy: ―1) a regulatory approach, 2) fiscal measures, 3) burden sharing among 535 member states, and 4) the scope for complementary action at the national level.‖ Since the sixth Environmental Action Program, the climate change issue has caused great 536 concerns. According to the EU National Communications to the UNFCCC, ―The European Commission has proposed in particular: (1) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions beyond the Kyoto commitments, by 1% of their 1990 levels every year until 2020; (2) To set more ambitious environmental targets for energy taxation, such as automatically indexing taxes at least to the level of inflation; to phase out all subsidies for fossil fuel production and consumption by 2010, undertaking steps to develop alternative sources of employment for the sectors concerned. The European Union also needs to think about the specific situation of coal in some candidate countries, within the framework of the accession negotiations; (4) that by 2010, alternative fuels, including biofuels, should account for at least 7% of the fuel 537 consumed by cars and trucks.‖ The EU is struggling to agree on the details of its plan to reduce the 27-nation bloc's greenhouse-gas pollution by 20 percent by 2020 compared with the benchmark year 1990. They promised to deepen this to 30 percent if another industrialized power followed suit.

534 535

Nigel Haigh, ―Climate Change Policies and Politics in the European Community,‖ in: Tim O‘Riordan and Jill Jager (eds.), Politics of Climate Change: A European Perspective (Routledge, New York, 1996), pp. 160-165. 536 The UNFCCC(2004), The Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, available at , Accessed on May 10, 2004. 537 ―EU Aims for Moral High Ground With Swingeing Climate Change Package,‖ The Guardian, January 24, 2008.

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They also pledged to boost the share of renewables in the EU energy mix to 20 percent, 538 including a 10-percent share for bio-fuels. Most developing countries follow a growth-oriented, unsustainable and resourceconstrained economic model. These countries face the crucial need to promote development while joining the global struggle against global warming and contributing to global economic growth. As countries undergo industrial development, they move through a period of intensive, and often inefficient, use of fossil fuel. Efficiencies improve along this development trajectory, but eventually tend to level off. Industrialized countries such as EU member states, Japan and the United States are at a knowledge-intensity and energy levelingoff stage, while developing countries such as China are at the energy-intensive development stage. Both factors are decreasing the global efficiency of fossil fuel use and increasing energy consumption. But a high growth of energy consumption is required for the capitalintensive industrialization period in today‘s China and other developing economies, and will be reduced at post-industrialization stages sooner or later. However, developed countries have not displayed enough enthusiasm transferring advanced clean energy technologies to the developing world. In facing the continuing economic rise of the emerging countries, the United States, or even the European countries and Japan, would not give these countries the core 539 technologies. They would, on the one hand, prevent the other countries from acquiring the core technology, thus to weaken their competitiveness; on the other hand, they are worried that the emerging countries would not protect the intellectual property rights of the advanced technologies. Moreover, the United States is unwilling to see China and other emerging countries improve their structure of energy production and use. From the viewpoint of the United States, if China successfully transformed itself to the way of sustainable development, the Chinese model of development would threaten the soft power of the U.S. On December 2007, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) said in one of its reports that in addressing climate change issues developed countries ―did not take the responsibility to help developing countries.‖ In 2007, at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali, Oxfam Hong Kong, an independent development and relief agency based in Hong Kong, said that the international community needs some $1-2 billion to make the least developed countries adapt to the most urgent requirements of climate change; however, 540 developed countries have donated no more than $67 million for this purpose. In December 2007, the Bali Roadmap was adopted whereby developed countries undertook to assist developing countries in clean energy development; however, no clear commitments have 541 been made in this process so far.

538

Aoife White, ―EU leaders meet to fix targets to cut greenhouse gases, use more renewable energy,‖ 2007. ―G8 Summit 2007 Heiligendamm—Working Together to Counter Climate Change,‖ http://www.g8.de/Content/EN/Artikel/2007/02/2007-02-13-merkel-blair__en.html. 540 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2003) ―GHG Emissions and Reduction Targets:‖ http://unfccc.int/text/resource/country/china.html.http://www.un.org/chinese/News/daily/pdf/2006/ 20092006.pdf 541 "Bali Action Plan, Decision -/CP.13",http://www.unfccc.int. 539

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11.4. THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE TWO LOGICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE GAMES FOR CHINA

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11.4.1. The Influence of the Two Logics of Climate Change Games The two logics of the climate change games influence China on three counts. First, developed countries continue to dominate international climate change negotiations. The fight against global warming can be described in terms of common goods. Even though there are many internal contradictions among rich countries, they share a common interest in trying to keep and widen the development gap and in staving off the rise of emerging powers. As a result, wealthy countries maintain their leading position in the postKyoto climate regime building process. Developed countries initially communicated with and consulted big greenhouse gas emitters in a bid to establish a rational and efficient post-Kyoto system that would safeguard and coordinate balanced development between energy consumption, the Earth's climate, and economic growth. At the same time, developed countries tried to persuade developing countries to accept soft and hard environmental constraints. Western countries argue that the Kyoto Protocol placed little responsibility on developing countries, and that the December 2009 Kyoto meeting in Copenhagen will impose carbon emission limits on China and India. Second, due to the early-development advantage of developed countries and the latedevelopment advantage of developing countries, any major energy innovation would bring about a new industrial revolution and the reallocation of global industry. Developed countries have even launched a climate or carbon tax to put limitations on the economic growth of the developing world, particularly China. Developing countries are gradually assuming the obligations of stabilizing GHG. But because they lack new energy sources and advanced technology, developing countries only become emerging markets for Western multinational companies, while developed countries are making full use of climate change opportunities to strengthen their technical and competitive edge. As a result, they continue to dominate the international system. Obviously, the situation is the same for the environmental trade regime, which would let developing countries bear the programmed baseline costs, while developed countries bear incremental costs. Developed countries are doing that to increase the environmental constraint for developing countries and eventually restrict the development of developing countries with a hard law. Third, efforts to establish a benign two-logics-of-climate-change-games regime for global warming, though indispensable to solve the problem of climate change, have run into many problems. These include restrictions imposed by both hard and soft laws, international competition in innovation, and non-commercial technical assistance. The distribution of environmental capacity and energy innovation require a healthy competitive environment and mechanisms that will not only promote common progress in energy technologies and economic restructuring but will also help the world embark on a low-carbon economy and sustainable development. China as the new developing industrial power and India are trying to meet their growing demand for energy, and are also ironing out tensions as countries compete to secure direct access to stable supply sources. Because of globalization, urbanization and industrialization, energy consumption in developing countries has been growing rapidly. In its World Energy

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Outlook 2006, the International Energy Agency pointed out that the economies and populations of developing countries were growing faster than those of the wealthier nations, ―shifting the center of gravity of global energy demand.‖ It estimated that more than 70 percent of the increase in global primary energy demand between now and 2030 will come 542 from developing countries. The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report estimates that carbon dioxide emissions from energy use could rise by 45 percent to 110 percent between 2000 and 2030. The report indicates that two-thirds to three-quarters of the increased emissions would come from developing countries. The report also makes it clear that the greater the efforts to reduce 543 global greenhouse gas emissions, the less severe would be the impact of climate change.

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11.4.2. Internal Responses to the Two Logics of Climate Change Games China‘s current per capita energy consumption is well below that of the developed world (although above that of many poor countries), but by 2020 China will match the current global average—meaning that China alone will account for almost one-third of the world's 544 total carbon emissions between 1990 and 2020. To be sure, China's current per capita emissions are low compared with industrialized countries, but with its almost 1.3 billion population, China‘s aggregate contribution to global warming is huge and growing. This prospect becomes clear when one considers the burgeoning middle class in China, whose lifestyle choices will lead to dramatic increases in per-capita energy use. China‘s overall carbon emissions by 2030 could reach 11 billion tons, well above those in the United States 545 (8 billion tons), Europe (4.5 billion tons), and India (nearly 2 billion tons). China has undertaken a number of policies and national development strategies, and created related 546 domestic institutions, specifically those related to climate change. Under its 11th five-year plan, the Chinese government expects to ―accelerate the pace of building a resource-efficient and environment-friendly society, and promote the harmonization of economic development with the population, resources, and the environment, 547 reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by some 20 percent.‖ China issued its National Action Plan on Climate Change in June 2007, and the government selected a number of goals to reach by 2010: a 20-percent cut in energy intensity; increasing renewable energy

542

N. Gopal Raj, ―Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change,‖ The Hindu, May 23, 2007. http://www.unfccc.int/. 544 Wang, Xiaodong and Smith, Kirk R. (2003), ―Near-Term Health Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Reductions:‖ http://www.who.int/environmental_information/Information_resources/ worddocs/Greenhousegas/phe99-12.doc. 545 ―Melting Asia: China, India, and Climate Change,‖ Economist, vol. 387 No. 8583, pp. 29-30. 546 CONCCCC (ed.) (2003), ―China's GHG Emission in the World,‖ http://www.ccchina.gov.cn. Cooper, Richard (1998), ―Toward a Real Global Warming Treaty,‖ Foreign Affairs, 77, vol. 2: 66-80. 547 National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): 11th Five-Year Plan for China National Economic and Social Development Report, 2006[http://en.ndrc.gov.cn/hot/t20060529_71334.htm].Accessed on May 5, 2007. 543

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to 10 percent of the primary supply of energy, a substantial increase in coal-bed methane 548 production, and promotion of nuclear power.

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11.4.3. External Responses to the Two Logics of Climate Change Games China has been intimately involved in the international debate on climate change. Like other participants in the climate change negotiations, China wants to protect its interests and promote development while also joining international efforts to address this problem. However, it has consistently opposed efforts to require GHG limits by developing countries— even those calling for voluntary commitments to restrict future emissions increases. Instead, China has joined other developing countries in demanding that developed countries reduce their carbon emissions first and provide assistance to developing countries to help them cope with climate change and to implement sustainable development. It has usually resisted any links between financial and technical assistance from developed countries in the context of the climate change regime. Instead, it has demanded transfers of funds on noncommercial and preferential terms, and has rejected many of the market-based international mechanisms for 549 emissions reductions advocated by developed countries and their industries. China has made some noteworthy contributions to climate-related international negotiations, notably when doing so would help codify requirements that developed countries help developing countries in the context of climate change. It proposed a resolution on technology transfer, which was adopted by the first conference of the parties (COP) held in Berlin in 1995. During COP2, China proposed that developed countries list in their national communications measures they were undertaking to implement technology transfer to developing countries. China has sometimes used a form of passive resistance during climate change negotiations, articulating a policy of ―no response‖ to some international events, such as the Bush administration's rejection of the Kyoto Protocol. In 2000, China put forward a ―no regrets‖ policy for the FCCC negotiations, meaning that it would share some concrete responsibilities to reduce carbon emissions provided they do not adversely affect its economic development. Despite pressure from the United States, Europe and some other countries to reduce its carbon emissions, China has to date refused to take on concrete commitments toward this end. It expects the developed, wealthy countries of the world to substantially reduce their emissions before China and other developing countries are expected to do so, in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibility adopted at the 1995 Berlin conference of the parties. However, a significant shift in China‘s energy policy and attitudes toward the Kyoto Protocol arguably occurred when it endorsed the Bali Roadmap in 2007, notably its paragraph on developing-country commitments: ―Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country parties in the context of sustainable development, supported and enabled by technology, financing and capacity building, in a measurable, 548

Xinhua News Agency, ―China National Action Plan on Climate Change,‖ [http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/ 2007-06/04/content_6196300.htm], accessed on March 3, 2008. 549 Linnerooth, Bayer J. (1999), ―Climate Change and Multiple Views of Fairness,‖ in: Ference L. Toth (ed.), Fair Weather? Equity Concerns in Climate Change, London: Earthscan.

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reportable and verifiable manner‖ (Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention 550 on Climate Change 2007: 3). While this is hardly an embrace by the government of limitations on China‘s carbon emissions, it may be a harbinger of future acceptance of them. At the 2007 APEC Summit, China‘s president Hu Jintao put forward four proposals for tackling climate change. These proposals have been regarded as China‘s updated response to international climate change negotiations: ―First, cooperation is indispensable to global efforts to tackle climate change. Second, efforts are needed to pursue sustainable development, as climate change is ultimately a development issue and it can only be addressed in the course of sustainable development. Third, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change should be upheld as the core mechanism for addressing climate change. The Convention and its Kyoto Protocol constitute the legal basis of international cooperation on climate change and are the most authoritative, universal and comprehensive international framework for the issue. Fourth, efforts should be made to promote scientific and technological innovation, as science and technology are important 551 means for tackling climate change.‖

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CONCLUSION The new century is an important milestone in the history of human development as half of the world's population is about to enter into resource-intensive industrialized societies that may seriously affect traditional North-South relationships and international environmental systems. Obviously, the climate crisis and energy resource difficulties would be the direct consequences, while fierce competition among major powers in the distribution of responsibilities, rights and interests of future development would be one of the potential implications affecting power transition in the international system. Nowadays, as the U.S. and EU economies recover and developing countries muster sustained economic growth, energy supply is out of step with demand. The environmental pressure is growing, and the geopolitical situation of the main oil-producing areas is unstable. Energy competition among countries is concerned not only with the success of collective action, but also with the transition of energy power in the international system. The need for access to energy resources has increased and more countries are making greater demands for them. The loss of balance between human energy activities and the preservation of nature in many parts of the world is attributed to environmental degradation, in particular global warming. According to Jeffrey D. Sachs, ―The global energy strategy must satisfy three objectives: low cost, diverse supply, and drastically reduced carbon dioxide 552 emissions.‖

550

The Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: ―Bali Action Plan,‖ [http://unfccc.int/documentation/decisions/items/3597.php?such=j&volltext=/CP.13#beg], accessed on March 12, 2008. 551 ―Hu Jintao Expounds China's Stance on Climate Change at APEC Meeting,‖ September 2007 [www.ccchina.gov.cn/cn/NewsInfo.asp?NewsId=9167], accessed on May 3, 2008. 552 Jeffrey D. Sachs, ―Washington‘s Way Will Undermine Oil Security,‖ Daily Star, October 2, 2006.

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The world could benefit from the growth of developing countries, particularly China, if a workable model could be devised that would truly manage the balance of energy and the environment. A concerted transition to a low- or zero-carbon economy is the road that China must choose, especially with financial and technical aid from the developed world. However, such aid from the developed world is not enough. It is essential that climate change be fully integrated into development policy, and rich countries should help developing countries build the equity-based, sustainable, clean and low-carbon growth model. Otherwise collective action against global warming is hopeless. Western countries are uneasy about new rising countries such as China that would probably confront the environmental status quo or the future allocation mechanism of resources and try to seek ways, including hard and soft laws, to contain them. Under such conditions, China‘s strategy should be to be involved in these negotiations, on one hand by actively coordinating the conflicts and competition triggered by the allocation of environmental resources between different parties; and, on the other hand, by promoting the global sharing of the achievements in technological innovation, while following the ―common development‖ approach to solve international environmental and political problems. China could, and we argue should, show moral leadership on climate change, something that has been lacking among the developed countries. Alas, bearing in mind what we have said, it seems unlikely that China would undertake such a pro-environment leadership role in the Asian Pacific region or among developing countries more broadly. There are clearly many Chinese scientists and concerned officials who would like China to do much more. But there are also vested economic interests, exacerbated by China's infatuation with rapid economic growth and wealth creation, which overwhelm the environmentalists. There is a burgeoning car culture—the same mistake as that made in the West—with a rapacious appetite for petroleum. More broadly, there is an effort to emulate the West's development and Western people's lifestyles, but with this comes an emulation of their terrible history of pollution. This is unfortunate because a concerted transition to an economy that produces fewer carbon emissions is possible, especially with financial and technical aid from the developed world. However, such aid would have to come with clear restrictions that the Chinese government has shown an unwillingness to accept. The upshot is that in the future there will be some improvements that will limit the increases in China's carbon emissions compared with what they might be otherwise. For the most part, however, at least in the near term, it will be business as usual particularly in the long term.

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Chapter 12

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THE FUTURE TREND OF INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENT SYSTEM AND CHINA’S ENVIRONMENTAL DIPLOMACY Nowadays, environmental and energy security issues have caught great attention of the entire human race. The relationship between energy and environment has changed beyond recognition，and it pose a great challenge to both practitioners and scholars all over the world. Moreover, environmental and energy security issues have moved from the margin to the center of security policies, particularly since the end of the Cold War. On one hand, environmental and energy security issues have been recognized as an important source of threats to human survival over the last several decades. The human dependence on modern energy service or clean environment in a modern society is ten to one hundred times greater than it was in an agrarian society. On the other hand; it is now universally acknowledged that international cooperation or collective action is necessary to resolve the security problems in the fields of energy and environment. International collective action on environment and energy is a social and political problem as well as an economic one. It involves various sectors of the national social economy and so has an important bearing on political legitimacy and stability of all nations. The need for access to energy and other natural resources has increased and more states make greater competition upon them.

12.1. THE CONCEPT OF INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEM Today, the world‘s scientists now regard environmental disaster as one of the most serious global problems the world faces, and environmental threat has become a very serious national security issue. Environment security emphasizes the unit of analysis and suggests that an environment component be included in the concept of security: national, global, or social. Security to a common man is "freedom from danger; safety". Thus, environmental security can be understood as" freedom from environmental danger/conflicts. But this definition only refers to the absence of environmental insecurity. There are some efforts to provide a positive approach, which would include not only the absence of environmental conflicts but also the achievement of environmental sustainability. One researcher provides a

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working definition of environmental security by identifying its components: 1. Sustainable exploitation of renewable nature resources. 2. Protection of the human environment. 3. Safeguard of the renewable natural resources. 4. Minimization of the risks . Today, environmental security issues have threatened the national interests of all the countries in the world. For example, scarcity of natural resources and the degradation of natural environments by human overexploitation may contribute to social and political instability in strategically important regions like the Middle East, North Africa, and East, Central, and South Asia. Environmental degradation is often associated with rapid population growth, famine, migration, and state failure and collapse in some lesser-developed and formerly communist countries. Many environmental issues such as ozone layer depletion, species extinction and overexploitation, radioactive and chemical contamination, ocean pollution, and climate change threaten the physical, economic, and social security of citizens. International environmental system is one of important branch of global system. The role players in this system include both state actors (i.e., developed countries in post-industrial stage, new industrial developing powers, resource-intensify states) and non-state actors (e.g., UNEP, Green Peace). According to the international environmental laws, values and regimes, the interactions in global, regional, bilateral and sub-national level between and among these role players constitute and form the international environmental system. The interactions focus on the following aspects: the sustainable development and equity growth model, resource sovereignty and environmental peacekeeping, global responsibility. We can study the international environment system by identifying its components as following: 1. Sustainable exploitation of renewable nature resources. 2. Protection of the human environment. 3. Safeguard of the renewable natural resources. 4. Minimization of the environmental disasters.

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12.2. THE HISTORY OF INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEM 12.2.1. The Three Stages of International Environmental System Oran Yang argues that there are three stages for regime formation: the agenda formation stage, the negotiation stage, and the operation stage. There are also three stages for international environment system. The First Stage: The creation of environmental security (from 1960s to 1980s). Environmental issues only became suitable for public discussions in international forums after being taken up by environmental movement in 1960s and 1970s. Beginning with the UN Conference on Human Environment in 1972, political leaders brought these issues to the agenda of international politics. With the improvement of US-Soviet relations in the mid1980s, the environmental issues received a place in international public discourse and in the media. ―From its relatively humble beginning in the early 1980s, the subject of environment and security has become something of a major academic industry, as well as an issue of growing concern to foreign policy makers in various national capitals The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, held in Stockholm, Sweden, in June 1972, marked the emergence of international environmental law. There, countries adopted the Declaration

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on the Human Environment or Stockholm Declaration that set out the principles for many international environmental issues, including human rights, natural resource management, pollution prevention and the relationship between the environment and development. The conference led to the creation of the United Nations Environment Programme.

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The second stage: The early development stage of international environment system (from 1980s to 1990s). In the 1990s environmental issues became headlines in global media. It was introduced to the political agenda, at both domestic and international levels, and it also attracted the attention of the research institutes. The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development, held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in June 1992, marked a turning point in the history of international environmental cooperation. The Earth Summit attracted more than 110 presidents and prime ministers and thousands of nongovernmental organizations. The Earth Summit developed the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development and Agenda 21. It also led to the establishment of the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development and the Global Environment Facility. The leaders of the 1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil -- known as the Earth Summit -- embraced the concept of sustainable development and of common, but differentiated, responsibilities among rich and poor nations concerning the protection of global resources. The summit included the adoption of treaties on global warming and biodiversity that incorporated these principles. The summit also raised recognition of the important role that citizen organizations play in holding global financial and trade institutions accountable for their lending practices and decisions. The third stage focuses on the human sustainable development. Since the 1990, more and more scholars argued that environmental protection should be integrated in human economic development. The 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, South Africa, encouraged the creation of more informal partnerships among governments, agencies, businesses and citizen groups to take action on existing promises related to sustainable development. Some nations have called for the creation of a global environmental organization with real international regulatory powers. We can expect the debate over how best to protect the planet to continue and grow in the coming years. The World Summit on Sustainable Development held in Johannesburg, South Africa, in August 2002 helped heighten attention to the critical role of civil society in a globalized world. The summit stimulated the announcement of more than 200 partnerships and initiatives involving not only governments, but also citizen groups and businesses for implementing commitments at the domestic level.

12.2.2. Four Functions of International Environmental System Environmental issues have presently entered the international political arena in a forceful way and the debates and discussions on environmental issues have become more and more significant at different levels. Based on the summary of the development of international environmental cooperation, we can conclude four characteristic of international environmental system:

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Firstly is to coordinate the South-North relationship. Though there are a lot of conflicts and disputes between developing and developed countries in how to balance economic growth and environmental protection, there is a powerful demand for developed and developing countries to construct an international environmental system for collectively preventing ecological disasters. The Rio Declaration on Environment and Development (1992) states that the industrial World should "Provide technical and financial assistance to developing countries". Secondly is to coordinate international coordination. International environmental system will shape foreign and security interests that most countries‘ security institutions are not suited to address. All states in the world should take international struggles to address the problem of global climate change. Since no country, by itself, would be able to substantially influence the climate system, international regime for climate change aversion is sought to overcome this collective aversion problem since 1980s. Thirdly is the relationship between international environmental system and the US. The United States is the most powerful and the largest developed country with strong power position even in environmental protection arena. According to Michael E. Kraft, ―the line between domestic and international environmental protection is much less sharp than it used to be. In particular, U.S. policymakers are now influenced by a wide array of forces external to the nation. These include requirements emanating from treaty obligations, pressures from international environmental groups and multinational corporations, and a multitude of reports and recommendations flowing from international institutions, such as the Global Environment 553 Facility, the World Bank, and the UN Commission on Sustainable Development.‖ The fourth is the environmental governance by international organizations. The United Nations and its agencies play a significant role in international environmental system. The Global Environment Facility (GEF) in the context of the UNFCCC is a financial support regime to encourage developing countries to contribute to the prevention of the global warming, the most pressing global environmental problem.

12.3. THE INSTITUTIONS AND NORMS IN INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEM 12.3.1. The Important Institutions in International Environmental System All states in the world should take international struggles to address the problem of global environmental pollutions. Since no country, by itself, would be able to substantially resolve the environmental problems, international institutions and norms for international environmental system is sought to overcome this collective aversion problem since the early 1970s when the first Human Environment and Development.

Michael E. Kraft, ―Environmental Policy and Politics in the United States: Toward Environmental Sustainability?‖ Uday Desai, ed., Environmental Politics and Policy In Industrialized Countries (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2002), p.44 553

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(1) The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) was founded in the first United Nations Environment Conference was held in Stockholm in June, 1972, and headquartered in Nairobi. To protect the global environment is the goal of UNEP. UNEP is the voice for the environment. Within the United Nations system, the UNEP‘s mission is to provide leadership and encourage partnership in caring for the environment by inspiring, informing, and enabling nations and peoples to improve their quality of life without compromising that of future 554 generations. The UNEP aims to assessing global, regional and national environmental conditions and trends, developing international agreements and national environmental instruments, strengthening institutions for the wise management of the environment, and integrating economic development and environmental protection. The UNEP has eight divisions to promote and facilitate sound environmental management for sustainable development: Early Warning and Assessment；Policy Development and Law； Environmental Policy Implementation；Technology, Industry and Economics Regional Cooperation, Environmental Conventions, Communications and Public Information, Global 555 Environment Facility (GEF) Coordination.

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(2) The Global Environment Facility (GEF) The Global Environment Facility (GEF) in the context of the United Nations is a financial support regime to encourage developing countries to contribute to the prevention of the global warming and other most pressing global environmental problem. Until now, the GEF has ―the world‘s unique multilateral environmental funding source, the only multilateral financial mechanism, and the financial implementing agency for climate change built into the UNFCCC. The GEF provides financial support for projects related to the climate change, and provides grant and finance to developing countries to improve their capabilities to protect 556 global warming.‖ The GEF ―results in indirect impacts on developing countries, such as China, and affects their abilities to master, absorb and diffuse technologies related to reducing greenhouse gases (GHG). GEF Projects build the human resources and institutional capacities that are widely recognized as important conditions for technology adoption and diffusion.‖ 557 Since its inception, the GEF has promoted technology transfer, grants, and loans for developing countries through a series of projects in developing countries. Besides the above two institutions, there are still many important international conventions as following: 1) Convention on Biological Diversity; 2) Framework Convention on Climate Change; 3) Vienna Convention for the Protection of Ozone Layer; 4) Kyoto Protocol; 5) Convention on Wetlands of International Importance Especially as Waterfowl Habitats; 6) United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea ; 7) International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from ships; 8) Convention of Protection of Marine Life; 9) 554

The UNEP:"About UNEP: The Organization ",. 555 The UNEP:"Environment for Development", http://www.unep.org/PDF/ABOUT_UNEP_ ENGLISH.pdf. 556 Lin Gan, "Global Environmental Policy in Transition: An Actors' Perspective", in Global Environmental Change Human and Policy Dimensions, 3, 2( June,1993), pp. 30-51. 557 "Technology Transfer and Market Development," . Accessed on April 2, 2004.

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Basel Convention on the Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal; 10) Convention on Desertification.

12.3.2. The Important Norms of International Environmental System

(1) The Principle of sustainable development The internationally accepted definition of sustainable development comes from the report of the United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development (‗Our Common Future‘ (1987)), namely: ―Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.‖ The Plan of Implementation of the 2002 United Nations World Summit of Sustainable Development specifically states the need to ―Enhance partnerships between governmental and nongovernmental sectors, including all major groups, as well as volunteer groups, on programmes and activities for the achievement of sustainable development at all levels.‖ Take the world economy as an example, as the economies of the developed and developing countries are increasingly interdependent, worsening poverty means, in effect a shrinking world market and sluggish international trade. Conversely, with greater progress in sustainable development, whereby the demand and purchasing power of 78% of the world population will be growing stronger and stronger, all-round economic cooperation and allround expansion of the world market will keep thriving. Thus sustainable development is in the interests of all countries

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(2) Common but differential responsibilities Developed countries are the principal emitters of pollutants and therefore should bear the primary responsibilities in addressing the climate change problem. The principle of ―Common but Differentiated Responsibilities‖ is the global consensus in the UNFCCC and other international environmental laws. This principle means that the industrialized, wealthy countries of the world bear responsibility for global warming because of their historic emissions of greenhouse gases for more than three hundred years. Furthermore, developed countries‘ per capita emissions remain far above those of developing countries, meaning that their responsibility continues. According to the UNFCCC, ―The largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in developed countries, that per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low and that the share of global emissions originating in developing countries grow to meet their social and development needs. The Parties should protect the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations of humankind, on the basis of equity and in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Accordingly, the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof. The extent to which developing country Parties effectively implement their commitments under the Convention depend on the effective implementation by developed country Parties of their commitments under the Convention related to financial resources and transfer of technology

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and take fully into account that economic and social development and poverty eradication are 558 the first and overriding priorities of the developing country Parties‖ .

(3) Environmental interdependence and international cooperation The harm done by environmental disasters also adds a potential threat to human being, it is so serious in its nature and so far-reaching in influence that it has transcended national 559 boundaries, come across oceans and expanded to the whole world. As these consequences have become clearer, governments have started to work unilaterally and in concert to adapt to and – much less robustly – mitigate environmental problems and build environmental system. International environmental system has acquired wide interests in the context of international relations，and is also a truly complex global interdependent issues. For example, climate change and ozone layer depletion have had serious impact on every aspect of human 560 economic and social life . On the one hand, the pursuit of rational common goods for environmental security led to cooperation; however, on the other hand, the pursuit of rational self-interest or preference among different states often frustrates international environmental system.

12. 4. THE DIFFICULTIES AND PROBLEMS FOR THE INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEM

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(1) The Great powers in the international environment system Major power interaction decides the rules and legitimacy of international environmental system. The developed world should share the main responsibilities of international environmental protection, and plays the proactive role in it. The developing worlds only share the ―common but differential responsibilities‖. For the developed states, the EU plays a role as a leader and pusher in international climate change action against global warming. The EU has used its dual status as the biggest economic bloc and its growing role as a major pusher to international commitments on climate change. The EU is one of the largest donors of environmental aid and the strongest support for the Kyoto protocol in the COP conferences. The U.S. is the world's largest and influential countries, and both experiencing widespread and acute environmental problems with severe local, national, and regional consequences. In other words, the US is central to regional and global environmental protection efforts. Since 561 1997, the U.S. State Department publishes its annual Environmental Diplomacy Report , which makes evaluation on global environment and environmental diplomacy. ―The United States was a global leader in the early development of policies and regulatory programmes to

558

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 9 May 1992, www.unfccc.int. See ―Climate in despair‖, in Times, (July 15th 1999), p. 25. 560 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)‘s annual report 1992-2001, www.ipcc.ch 561 The U.S. State Department: http://www.state.gov/www/global/oes/earth.html 559

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protect environmental quality.‖ The US leadership was evident in its preemptive action to limit emissions of ODCs. This action created an environment in which industry had an economic incentive to find a technological solution to the problem (namely, substitutes for ODCs, which US industry was first to develop). The developing powers (e.g., Brazil , India and China) has used the global environmental negotiations to pursue its own national 563 interests. India, Brazil and other developing powers also sought and excise the leadership within the Third Word for global environmental protection. Brazil quests for regional and even global leadership, especially among developing countries.

(2) The equity development

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The U.S. and other developed countries‘ resource and energy use is luxury, wasteful and competitive. But most developing countries only struggle for their basic needs satisfaction, such as completion of industrialization of urbanization and basis physical life adequacy. It‘s an inalienable right of the developing world to further develop its economy, improve living standards, and enjoy the same living standards of people in the developed countries. Of the world's six billion people, one-third enjoys electricity. And one third -- two billion people -simply lack access to modern energy services and living on less than $2 per day. For the poor countries, ensuring economic growth and lifting people out of poverty are necessarily important priorities. More energy use by these countries and greater emissions from them are 564 therefore inevitable. For the largest developing country of China, global warming issues also have been intimately linked with efforts to modernize the economy and the energy strategy employed to fuel that modernization. If China decreases the emission of GHG by 1020%, the GDP of the country decrease by 2%. When per Capital income increases by 5.1%, 565 the emissions of GHG also increase by 1.29%.

12.5. THE FUTURE TREND OF INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEM First, environmental diplomacy will be put first on global governance agenda. Environment diplomacy is a political and social problem as well as an economic one. It involves various sectors of the national economy and so has an important bearing on sustainable economic and social development of the World. The need for access to global energy or natural resources has increased, and which push all the states to make greater 562

Gary C. Bryner, "The United States: `Sorry--Not Our Problem'," in William M. Lafferty and James Meadowcroft (eds.), Implementing Sustainable Development: Strategies and Initiatives in High Consumption Societies (New York: Oxford University Press, 2000), p. 273. 563 Ken Johnson, "Brazil and the Politics of the Climate Change Negotiations." Journal of Environment & Development, Vol. 10, No. 2 (June 2001), p. 199... 564 According to International Energy Agency data, the per capita total primary energy supply of the U.S. was more than six times higher than China's and nearly 15 times that of India's in 2004; the per capita emissions of carbon dioxide by these countries followed a similar pattern. 565 Zhang Zhongxiang: ―Macroeconomic Effect of Co2 Emissions Limits: A computer General Equilibrium Analysis‖, A paper presented at 7th Annual Conference of the European Association of Environment and Resource Economists, Lisbon.

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endeavors on environmental diplomacy. With the breakdown of cold-war in the late 1980s, the environmental diplomacy received a place in international public discourse and in the media. In the 1990s environmental issues became headlines in global media. It was introduced to the political agenda, at both domestic and international levels. Environmental diplomacy has presently entered the international political arena in a forceful way and the debates and discussions on environmental issues have become more and more significant at different levels. In the early 2007, the EU decided to cut greenhouse gas emissions 20% by 2020 from 1990 levels and by 30% if other industrialized nations join in. The EU also agreed to back collective cuts of 60% to 80% by 2050 compared with 1990 levels. The U.S. environmental diplomacy aims to serve its global leadership. According Warren Christopher, ―The United States is providing the leadership to promote global peace and prosperity. The US must also lead in safeguarding the global environment on which that prosperity and peace 566 ultimately depend.‖ Second, global environmental Problems have entered North-South relations in close connection with the question of equity and sovereignty. The developing country are seeking to industrialize and modernize, while the developed world urges them to assume the concrete responsibility for protecting the environment as early as it can, if not, the rapid increase of pollutions in poor countries will counterbalance the endeavors of international environmental cooperation. For example, by 2006, carbon emissions in developing countries were 44 percent over 1990 levels, and 71 percent over 1986 levels. In 2002, the Bush Administration argues that the Kyoto Protocol is unfair to the United States and to other industrialized nations because it exempts 80 percent of the world from compliance particularly China. The U.S. pushed for a provision that would have allowed these countries to voluntarily "opt in" to binding commitments, but China and India blocked this measure, among others. For the developing countries, Concern for sovereignty and equity has always been central to developing world‘s environmental diplomacy (e.g., India, Brazil), and the developing countries‘ equity concerns reflected a desire for farness in the distribution of responsibility for repairing global environmental damage. ―The India government took steps to coordinate the position of the South on the ozone issue and other global environmental 567 issues.‖ Fatai Kayode Salau argues, ―The Nigeria has taken a radical stance on the problem of the export of hazardous wastes from industrialized countries to the African 568 continent‖. Indian played a leadership role in articulating Third World concerns and 569 uniting developing countries around a common agenda.‖ ―Brazil place emphasis on the 570 importance of state sovereignty and on the need to constrain interventionism.‖ 566

Warren Christopher, ―Diplomacy and the Environment‖, in Warren Christopher (ed.), In the Stream of History: Shaping Foreign Policy for a New Era (California: Stanford University Press, 1998), p. 417. 567 Mukund Govind Rajan, ―India‘s Foreign Environmental Policy,‖ Global Environmental Politics: India and the North-South Politics of Global Environmental Issues, (Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 75. 568 Fatai Kayode Salau, "Nigeria," in M. Janicke and H. Weidner (eds.), National Environmental Policies: A Comparative Study of Capacity-Building (Berlin: Springer, 1997), p. 261. 569 Mukund Govind Rajan, Global Environmental Politics: India and the North-South Politics of Global Environmental Issues (Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 270. 570 Andrew Hurrell,"The Foreign Policy of Modern Brazil," in Steven Hook ed., Comparative Foreign Policy: Adaptation Strategies of the Great and Emerging Powers, (New Jercy: Prentice Hall, 2002). P. 162.

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Third, environmental multilateralism will be the foundation of international environmental system. The two means of multilateralism are internationalism which put the higher priorities of international institutions than the state in aspects of morality, laws and strategy), and legitimacy which depends on international laws and accords. International environmental regimes can facilitate human environmental cooperation through seven means below: First, regimes can lengthen the shadow of the future. Second, regimes can alter the cardinal payoffs of a game to make conflict more or less likely. Third, regimes institutionalize rules and norms in order to increase the probability of cooperation. Fourth, regimes facilitate cooperation by providing information to members. Fifth, regimes increase the probability of cooperation by reducing transaction costs. Sixth, regimes can facilitate cooperation by linking issues. 571 Seventh, regimes increase the likelihood of cooperation by redirecting domestic hostility . All environment disputes and conflicts arise from different active voices. The harm done by global environmental disasters can only be resolved by international regimes and multilateralism. Building on the legacy of Stockholm, Rio Summit, and Johannesburg, there has been a great progress. Various multilateral conventions or instruments have been negotiated, which address quite a lot environmental such issues. Since the 1970s, the world community has developed a large body of international environmental laws, including more than 1000 treaties. Various multilateral conventions or instruments have been negotiated, which address nearly all the environmental issues.

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12.6. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY SYSTEM Modern life is based on oil, and global energy security is crucial to the economic growth and people's livelihood of all countries. Energy is also fundamental to all nations‘ prosperity and national security. The advent of globalization, the growing gap between rich and poor, and the need to fighting global warming are all intertwined with energy concerns. There is a pressing need for strategic thinking about the international energy system (e.g., the concept, evolvement, and future).

12.6.1. The Concept of Energy System States are major actors, which compete for resources in the modern international system. A threat to a society is understood in terms of protecting one's own territories. The security is usually composed of four conditions: security for whom? security from where?, security of what value?, and by what capability or means? The center of the security problem is commonly on the physical protection of the state from external threats. 572Overall, national 571

There are several neo-liberals raising these augments: David A. Baldwin (ed.), Neorealism and Neoliberalism: the Contemporary Debate, Columbia University Press, 1993,Robert O. Keohane: After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Economy, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press ,1984 and Stephen D. Krasner (ed.), ―International Régime‖, Cornell University Press, 1983 572 Richard Ullman, ―Redefining Security,‖ International Security, Vol. 8 (Summer 1983), pp. 129-156.

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security will not be guaranteed without the protection of sovereignty and territorial integrity. National security can be defined in terms of the capacity to control those domestic and foreign factors that influence autonomy and prosperity. Not only military but also nonmilitary threats degrade the quality of life for the inhabitants of a state elimination of sources of threats from the environment because as important as the absence of military threat. Energy security and national security are closely interlinked. Economies – all economies – run on energy. Energy security means the stability, diversify and safety of entire oil & gas supply, it is fundamental to all nations‘ prosperity and national security. Actually, there are quite lot different energy security concepts. For the developed countries, energy security is the availability and sustainability of sufficient supplies of oil and gas at affordable prices. Energy-exporting countries focus on maintaining the security and stability of demand for their exports. For the new developing powers (e.g., China and India), energy security now lies in their ability to rapidly adjust to their new dependence on global markets, which represents a major shift away from their former commitments to self573 sufficiency. International Energy Security（price, transportation, sustainable development）

Global energy laws, institutions and values

Regional energy laws, institutions and values

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地区、双边互动机制、规则和价值规范

Actors’s energy policy(energy production and consuming countries, NSA).

Figure 1. The International Environmental System

International energy system is one of important branch of global system. The role players in this system include both state actors (i.e., OPEC countries, Russia, OECD countries, and neo-industrial countries) and non-state actors (e.g., international energy agency, OPEC). According to the international energy laws, values and regimes, the interactions in global, regional, bilateral and sub-national level between and among these role players constitute and form the international energy system. The interactions focus on the following aspects: energy production, transportation and trade.

573

. Daniel Yergin,"Ensuring Energy Security.",Foreign Affairs, March 1, 2006, pp. 69-77.

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12.6.2. The Development of International Energy System Energy is, after all, a fundamental driver of growth and development around the world, and the use of energy has been steadily expanding along with the world's political and economic development, particular with the shift of great powers in international system.

12.6.2.1. The interaction between energy production and consuming countries

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(1) The Imbalance of World Energy production and consumption. Geology and politics have created petrol-superpowers that nearly monopolize the world's oil supply. The energy production states control up to 77 percent of the world's oil reserves through their national oil companies. Global oil supply and demand – Oil production capacity is becoming concentrated in 15 countries, nine of them OPEC members, which will control 58% of world liquid production capacity by 2015.These governments set prices through their investment and production decisions, and they have wide latitude to shut off the taps for political reasons. 574Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq and Iran are four biggest proven oil reserves. The Middle East‘s proven oil reserve is about 685.6 billion barrels and account for 65.35% of the World total, the Central-South America 96 billion barrels and 9.1%, the Africa 76.7 billion barrels and 7.3%, and the Former Soviet Union 65.4 billion barrels and 6.2%.575 Since the second Iraq War in 2003, four dramatic changes happened in the international energy system: Firstly, the US take Iraq as an important oil diplomacy tool to stabilize the oil price and protect energy security because Iraq is still World third largest proved oil reserve country. Secondly, Iraq war has weakened the proactive role of the OPEC in oil 576 geopolitics. Thirdly, Russia‘s role as a major energy supplier is set to grow, and its oil diplomacy has changed the geopolitical picture of Europe and Asia. Fourthly, energy nationalism is surging in Latin America particularly Venezuela. 577 (2) The interaction between energy production and consuming countries On the one hand, supply and demand on the international energy market are imbalanced. Since 2004, the surge of oil prices in the international market has affected the economic growth of the whole world, developing countries in particular. However, we should not fail to see that supply and demand on the international energy market are balanced on the whole, and that there is no crisis on the supply side. At this point, the most critical thing is for all countries to work together for stability of the world energy market, and to fuel the sustained growth of the world economy with sufficient, safe, economical and clean energy resources. On the other hand, it is also important to take a long-term perspective, deepen energy cooperation, increase energy efficiency, and facilitate the development and use of new energy

574

David Viktor, ―The Chaotic World of Energy Policy,‖ The Financial Times, 8 May 2006. ―2004 in Review,‖ British Petroleum, BP, 2002, http://www.bp.com/centres/energy2004/2004in. 576 Foreign Relations Council, ―National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency,‖ http://www.cfr.org/publication/11683/. 577 ―TAKE-A-LOOK-Resource Nationalism, A Growing Global Trend,‖ Reuters News, May 25, 2006. 575

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resources. Energy cooperation and dialogues have been strengthened among and between. OPEC countries, Russia, OECD countries, and neo-industrial countries The U.S. remains the world‘s most powerful and the largest developed nation state with its economy, technology and military marked by steady growth. The US act as the global balancer on environment and development growth. The trend of global energy threats over the US is approximately consistent with that of the globe. The US tries to reduce its oil import dependency, and diversifies the energy resources in the mean time. The US have applied various diplomatic and political tools to promote greater energy integration and facilitate energy trade with two of our largest oil suppliers (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Canada and Mexico), strengthen the institution building of international energy system, protect the sealanes for oil transportation, and acquire the energy geopolitical dominance. The tools of US energy diplomacy include: diplomatic engagements, including bilateral and regional activities with allies, producers, consumers, and NGOs578.The US also take high priorities in the relations with Africa because the nations of sub-Saharan Africa now supply the US with approximately 18 percent of its annual crude oil imports. Energy production states try to take their resources as the tool to improve the status as possible as they can. In Latin America, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia and Ecuador began to gain control of energy resources. Russia prepares to establish a gas OPEC with Algeria, Iran, Libya and Central Asia that account for 73% of global gas reserves. The Gas OPEC initiative caused deep concerns among OECD countries. In January,2006， Ukrainians were confronted by a Russian threat to cut off natural gas exports in mid-winter if Ukraine did not submit to a four-fold price increase. Russia also took action to deny oil or natural gas to other former Soviet Union states that caused great concerns of other European countries. In the summer of 2006, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad suggested to use the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) for energy integration among and between China, Russia, and Central Asia. The EU imports 50% of all its energy needs. With this level set to grow, the question of how the Union will satisfy its future energy demands have been placed in the first for EU policy agenda. European oil and gas is mainly imported from Russia and the Middle East at present. The continuing violence in Iraq and the wider region and Russia‘s gas disputes with its neighbors in the Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia has raised questions about stability of 579 supply. The economic rise of China and India has also dramatically increased the world‘s demand and need for energy and with it, geo-political calculations. With its fast growing economy, India‘s foreign policy is also being energized by energy concerns. It has been only 14 years since China became a net oil importer in 1993, and only 4 years since China finally became a country importing over 100 million tons of oil per year. Therefore, China is the newest player in world energy market. Major Chinese oil companies started international operations in the 1990s and have made impressive progress. Peaceful energy development 578

Daniel S. Sullivan, Energy and U.S. Foreign Policy: Security Through Diplomacy, Address to Energy Council, Federal Energy & Environmental Matters Conference Meeting Jointly with Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission (IOGCC) and Leadership of Pacific Northwest Economic Region(PNWER), Madison Hotel and Conference Center, Washington, D.C., March 9, 2007. 579 "EU energy the search for a safe and green future continues", The European Parliament - Press Releases, March 6, 2007.

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and international energy cooperation are the international dimensions of China‘s energy policy. China will take an active part in energy cooperation with other countries on the basis of mutual benefit to ensure stability of the regional and global energy market.

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12.6.2.2 The problems in international energy system (1) The Potential Crisis in International Energy System World oil demand is forecast to grow 50 percent by 2025, however, at some price, world reserves of recoverable conventional oil will reach a maximum because of geological 580 fundamentals. There will be an oil peak around 2015-2020, then the World oil production begin to decline. Currently, oil production is in decline in 33 of the world‘s 48 largest oil production countries. According to IEA 2006 report, global demand for oil, coal and natural gas and other primary fuels is forecast to rise 53 per cent by 2030 but the IEA warns that to date, efforts to improve supplies are to a large extent, illusory. The world is facing twin energy-related threats: that of not having adequate and secure supplies of energy at affordable 581 prices and that of environmental harm caused by consuming too much of it. The new characteristics for energy production states include: firstly, the oil resourceintensified areas are still in geopolitical political and military conflicts. The instability in Iraq, the Iran Nuclear crisis, terrorist threats and attacks, the humanitarian crisis and fragile democracy transition in sub-Saharan Africa, the strikes in Nigeria and Brazil, all of these pose great challenges to global oil production security. Since 2002, Al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations have openly declared their intent to attack oil facilities to impose indirect damage on Western economies. Secondly, the oil export states take energy weapons to implement their political and economic goals. For example, Iran and Venezuela have carried out a lot of oil policies to diversify their oil exportation (e.g., China, Japan and European countries) in order to counter-balance the US hegemony. Iran has repeatedly threatened to cut off oil exports to selected nations if United Nations Security Council's sanctions are imposed against it. Similarly Hugo Chavez in Venezuela has issued threats of an oil export embargo against the United States. According to Council on Foreign Relations, Major energy suppliers—from Russia to Iran to Venezuela—have been increasingly able and willing to use their energy resources to pursue their strategic and political objectives. 582 (2) The Competition among and between energy consuming states Globalization, urbanization and industrialization have made the world entered a new era in which energy security has become an increasing priority not only for the developed countries like U.S. and the West, but also developing powers like China and India that are becoming major energy consumers. Oil and gas can be described as common goods. Common goods means ―jointness of supply, and the impossibility of inefficiency of excluding others from its consumptions once 580

Robert L. Hirsch, "The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production", Atlantic Council Bulletin, Vol. XVI, No. 3(2006), pp.2-4. 581 Scott Simpson, "Top energy agency warns of 'dirty' future", Vancouver Sun, November 7, 2006. 582 Foreign Relations Council, ―National Security Consequences of U.S. Oil Dependency,‖ http://www.cfr.org/publication/11683/.

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583

it has been supplied to some members of the community‖ That is to say, any country( e.g., India, China and Japan, the US) consumes oil and gas, the they can not feasibly be withheld 584 from the others in international energy system. International energy system has powerfully shaped different state‘ energy diplomacy and global. For the demanding side of energy system, oil and gas draw the energy consuming states together or strengthening their cooperation on the one hand, however, they pull consuming states apart or risking conflict and instability quite often.

Exclusiveness No Exclusiveness

Ravel Private Goods Common Pool Resource

No Ravel Collective Goods Public Goods

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Figure 2. The Common Goods

The new industrial developing power like China and India‘s try to meet their increasing demand for energy, and also improve the tensions as all the countries compete to secure direct access to stable supply sources. Because of globalization, urbanization and industrialization, energy consumption from developing countries have been growing rapidly. In its World Energy Outlook 2006, the International Energy Agency pointed out that the economies and population of developing countries were growing faster than those of the wealthier nations, "shifting the center of gravity of global energy demand." It estimated that more than 70 per cent of the increase in global primary energy demand between now and 2030 would come 585 from developing countries. The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report estimates that carbon dioxide emissions from energy use could rise by 45 per cent to 110 per cent between 2000 and 2030. The report indicates that two-thirds to three-quarters of the increased emissions would come from developing countries. The report also makes clear that the greater the efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, the less severe would be the impact of 586 climate change. Most of developed countries are growth-oriented, unsustainable and resource constraint economic model. These countries face the crucial need to promote development while joining the global struggles against global warming while it has contributed to global economic growth. As countries undergo industrial development, they move through a period of intensive, and often inefficient, use of fossil fuel. Efficiencies improve along this development trajectory, but eventually tend to level off. Industrialized countries such as EU, Japan and the US are at knowledge-intensify and energy leveling-off stage, while developing countries such as China are at the energy intensive-development stage. Both factors are decreasing the global efficiency of fossil fuel use and increase the energy consumption. But we should notice that high growth of energy consumption is required for the capital intensive

583

Dennis C. Mueller, Public Choice II – A Revised Edition of Public Choice, Cambridge University Press, 1989,Page 11. 584 Mancur Olson, The Logic Of Collective Action, Harvard University Press, 1965, page 14. 585 N. Gopal Raj, "Meeting the challenge of climate change", The Hindu, May 23, 2007. 586 http://www.unfccc.int/.

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industrialization period in current China and other developing economy, and will be reduced at post-industrialization stages soon or later. In order to reduce the fast growing energy consumption, the developed countries should transfer the advanced energy technologies to the South countries according to the common but differential responsibilities. However, The developing countries are deeply dissatisfied with the developed countries in this respect because the latter refuse to pay necessary regard to their energy technological backward. The developed countries put low priorities technology transfer, and insist on the high price of intellectual property rights of these technologies. Since its inception, the Global Environment Facility (GEF) has promoted technology transfer, grants, and loans from developed world for reducing carbon emissions through a series of projects in developing countries. However, since its launch in 1991, the 587 GEF has only allocated about $4 billion in grants. Through CDM, industrialized countries also could meet part of their obligations for reducing their emissions in Kyoto Protocol by receiving credits for investing in projects that reduce carbon emissions in developing countries. However, the developed countries also take enough enthusiasm to transfer the advanced clean energy technologies to the developing world.

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12.6.3. The Institutions and Norms in International Energy System The present international energy system is at a vital turning point. The old structure has come to an end while a new one has yet to take shape. International energy geopolitics is moving in a direction of multi-polarization and has grown increasingly complex and interdependence as contact, communication, and exchange have increased among OECD, OPEC, IEA , US, EU, Russia, Japan, China and India. International regimes are defined as principles, norms, rules and decision-making procedures around which actor expectations 588 converge in a given issue-area. The main international energy regimes include: OPEC, G8, IEA. Most scholars agree that international regime helps to promote cooperation in all issue 589 area in which that there is high degree of interdependence. So there is a pressing need for fresh thinking about the institutions and norms in international environmental system.

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) As early as the 1970s, the OPEC began to exert an extraordinary influence on international energy system. From international economics perspective, the OPEC is a energy cartel to control or monopoly the price and supply.The OPEC can make the collective decision to limit or enlarge their oil production in order to monopoly the oil market and compete with non-OPEC oil production states. In the long run, the influence of OPEC in international energy system is expected to rise. According to the IEA report, energy supply is increasingly dominated by a small number of 587

http://www.gefchina.org.cn/ Stephen D. Krasner (1982), ― Structural Causes and Regime consequences: Régime as Intervening variables‖, in D. Krasner (ed.), ―International Régime‖, Cornell University Press, 1983,Page 1. 589 Theodore H. Cohn, ― Global Political Economy: theory and Practice‖, Longman, 2000, p. 88. 588

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major producers where oil resources are concentrated. Organization of Petroleum Exporting 590 Country‘s share of global supply grows to 48% by 2030 from 40% now and 42% in 2015. In December 2006, the Secretary-General of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced that Sudan and Angola would become the new member of the OPEC that will improve the World oil market share of OPEC quite a lot.

Group of Eight (G8 Summit) The Modern World Economy depends on the oil and gas. Since the first and second oil crisis in the 1970s, the Group of Seven, later the Group of Eight has been concerned with the energy issues. The global energy security was one of the key statements of the G8 Summit in St. Petersburg in 2006. St. Petersburg G8 summit made a commitment to ensure stable and affordable world energy supplies in a communiqué entitled "Global Energy Security" issued, and they also endorsed an action plan calling for concerted action by producers and consumers to resolve supply crises and to create a market-based environment aimed for "free, competitive and open markets". The objectives in G8 St. Petersburg Action Plan include: 1) strong global economic growth, effective market access, and investment in all stages of the energy supply chain; 2) open, transparent, efficient and competitive markets for energy production, supply, use, transmission and transit services as a key to global energy 591 security;3)enhanced dialogue ;4） diversification of energy supply and demand and etc.

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International Energy Agency (IEA) Like G7, the IEA was also born to meet the challenges of the Arab Oil Embargo of the 1970s, and play a counterweight role against OPEC in stabilizing global oil supply and price. The IEA constitutes of 26 OECD members that fosters collective energy security, largely through the coordinated management of strategic oil stocks. The IEA is a significant international regime to strengthen the common interest of importers among developed countries in encouraging open and transparent world oil markets and in planning for supply disruptions, through the establishment of national petroleum reserves and other mechanisms In 2005, the IEA used their member‘s oil reserves for collective action against Hurricanes Katrina. The Journal of Economist argued that IEA is the key to resolve such global energy 592 crisis .

The European Energy Charter Treaty 593

The European Energy Charter Treaty is a multinational treaty that regulates the biggest industry in the world, energy that adopted in 1991. European Energy Charter Treaty covers four main areas: investment, trade, transit and dispute settlement. There are 51 state members

590

Doris Leblond, "IEA: Fossil energy to dominate market through 2030", The Oil and Gas Journal,Volume 104; Issue 43(November 2006), pp. 28-34. 591 ―G8 supports open, efficient, competitive energy markets‖, US Fed News, July 16,2006. "Highlights of final G8 text on energy security", Reuters News, July 16, 2007. 592 "IEA key to solving global energy crisis", Economist, April 10, 2006, p.10. 593 Robert Volterra, Herbert Smith,"Energy Treaty - The Energy Charter Treaty and protection of energy investments."Power Economics,November 30, 2004,pp. 18-23.

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of European Energy Charter Treaty including East and West Europe, the former Soviet Union states, Japan, Australia, and Korea.

Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) The Kyoto Protocol(1997) also authorized the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), by which industrialized countries could meet part of their obligations for reducing their emissions by receiving credits for investing in projects that reduce carbon emissions in developing countries. Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol provides for the CDM whereby developed countries are able to invest in emissions reducing projects in developing countries to obtain credit to assist in meeting their assigned amounts. The details of the CDM have yet to be negotiated at the international level. However, it does allow countries to use credits obtained from the year 2000 for the purposes of meeting their assigned amounts. Participation is voluntary and open to private and public entities alike on a Party-approved basis. (Australia)

12.6.4. The Challenges for International Energy System The world community faces an unprecedented set of challenges in global energy: tight global supply and demand balances; geopolitical challenges in major oil production centers; galloping global economic growth driving energy use, and our shared concern over the global environment.

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(1) The geopolitical conflicts Many of the world‘s major oil producing regions are also locations of geopolitical tension, and possibilities exist of unexpected supply disruptions. Instability in producing countries is the biggest challenge we face, and it adds a significant premium to world oil prices. Palestine, Iraq and Iran will push the geopolitical tension in Middle East, the World largest oil producer. Darfur of Sudan, Democratic transition in Congo and Zimbabwe, all of these pose potential dangers to African oil production.

(2) Economic security and international energy system Energy resources have long been a critical element of national economic development. International economic prosperity is intertwined with energy. The instability of energy price will affect the economic growth of the whole world, developing countries in particular. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development estimates that non-OPEC developing nations spend 3.5 percent of their GDP or more on imported oil -- roughly twice the percentage paid in the main OECD countries. World Bank research shows that a sustained oil-price increase of $10 per barrel will reduce GDP by an average of 1.47 percent in countries with a per-capita income of less than $300. Some of these countries would lose as much as 4 percent of GDP. This compares to an average loss of less than one half of one 594 percent of GDP in OECD countries. 594

Dan Blumenthal and Phillip Swagel, ―China's Oil Follies‖，The Wall Street Journal , June 8, 2006.

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(3) Developing country’s energy consumption model The fast growths of energy use among developing countries are owed to the globalization, urbanization and industrialization, multinational corporations (MNCs) and developed countries should share the main responsibilities for climate crisis instead of fast growing developed states. However, According to dependent development theory, MNCs are home-based in rich countries. These states (EU, Japan and the US), equipped with highenergy technology, enjoy privilege in knowledge-intensified society and their low-carbon economy. Many developing countries energy policies are orchestrated by these states‘ MNCs. The improvement of energy efficiency may be possible for the developing countries (periphery and the semi-periphery countries), but it all depends on the ‗autonomy‘ of the MNCs and core nations. The direction of energy development of a periphery country depends on its ‗role‘ in the international division of labor. The international carbon emission system is actually orchestrated by the multinational corporations and rich nations.

(4) Global Warming challenges for international energy system

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Global warming is mainly caused by humankind's energy consumption from fossil fuels. Globally, fossil fuel production and use accounts for nearly 60 percent of the emissions that are causing the earth's atmospheric greenhouse to trap more heat. It will cause: hurricanes and droughts; scarcity of agriculture products; sea-level rise and polar ice melt; water shortage; 595 border conflict. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report concludes that billions of people could face shortages of food and water and increased risk of flooding as a result. Nearly all regions, European, African, Asian and American, are anticipated to be negatively affected by some future impacts of climate change and these will pose challenges to many economic 596 sectors. The previous IPCC report argued that Asia is potentially more susceptible to 597 climate change than are some other regions of the world. It concludes that the developing countries of Asia are highly vulnerable, and their adaptability is low. Floods, forest fires, cyclones, droughts and other extreme events have increased in temperate and tropical Asia.

12.6.5. The Future Trend of International Energy System

(1) The cooperation and coordination between and among key players Energy security is now an issue of growing weight in key bilateral and multilateral relationships among the great powers (e.g., US, Russia, China, Japan, EU, and India).All the key players should make proper use of the international energy market and strengthen winwin cooperation with energy producers and consumers on the basis of equality and mutual 595

―Many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes. It is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems with observational evidence from all continents and most oceans showing temperature rises. Climate changes in many physical and biological systems are linked to anthropogenic warming, ‖UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ,Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, resource: Maya Jackson Randall,"UN Report Proves Climate Change Cap Makes Economic Sense", DOW JONES NEWSWIRES. May 8, 2007. 596 "IPCC warns climate affects all", Nuclear Engineering International, May 22, 2007. 597 IPCC Working Group II, Summary for Policymakers, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (Geneva: IPCC Working Group II, 19 February draft).The report does not distinguish Asia Pacific. Findings are for Asia generally except where specified; see also IPCC 1997.

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benefit to jointly safeguard global energy security. The important diplomacy tools to develop international energy system include: dialogues and cooperation, and the goal is to maintaining the stability and security of international energy supplies. Particularly, the key players should engage and cooperate with other in international energy system that includes OPEC and nonOPEC energy production countries, G8, G20 and major oil consuming countries.

(2) Coordination regime building for energy consuming countries The main oil consuming countries (the EU, US, China, Japan, and India) in the international energy system have a choice: they can enter into an aggressive and hostile, politicized competition for oil supplies, or they can cooperate with each other on strategic issues vital to each other's national interests. All these states should choose the last one. As the coordination regime for oil consuming countries, the IEA should invite China and India to join. For the Asia-Pacific region, the Us, along with Japan, Australia and South Korea, has launched the Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate since 2005, which will help China and India to share the clean and low-carbon technologies with other developed countries.

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(3) Energy Technology transfers for clean development in developing world Concerted transitions to an economy that use much less oil and gas is the road that all developing countries must choose, especially with financial and technical aid from the developed world. However, such aid would have to come with clear restrictions from the developed world. As we know, developing countries‘ energy consumption per person are still below the global average. "On average, each person in the US now emits more than five tonnes of carbon per year, while in China the figure is only one tonne per year. Since the start of the industrial revolution, the US and Europe account for more than 50 per cent of the total, accumulated global emissions over two centuries, while China accounts for less than eight per 598 cent." Thus, it is essential that climate change be fully integrated into development policy, the rich countries should help developing countries to build the equity, sustainable, clean and low carbon growth model.

598

"CO2 emissions increasing faster than expected", M2 Presswire, May 22, 2007.

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Chapter 13

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DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE NEGOTIATIONS Global warming and the resulting climate change present the World with major and potentially devastating challenges. The Western countries always use the fast growing carbon emissions in developing world economies as a strong explanation for global warming. Bearing in mind of the current global financial crisis and the impasse of Bali Roadmap, the forthcoming Copenhagen Climate Change Conference faces enormous challenges. Many developing countries at the industrialization stage always follow the Western countries‘ economic model featured with growth-oriented, unsustainable and resourceconstrained from the late eighteenth century. The developing countries face crucial needs to promote development while joining the global struggle against global warming and contributing to global economic growth, particularly among the so-called emerging economies including China, India, Brazil, and South Africa, which become the key stakeholders central to global efforts against global warming, particularly in the post-Kyoto climate negotiations. Nevertheless, the developed countries have hitherto been the principal emitters of GHGs and should bear the primary responsibility in addressing the problem of climate change. Concerning their low per capital carbon emissions, the emerging economies play a dual role for the World: the contributor for global economy development based on its high carbon structure, and key stakeholder for fighting against global warming. Thus the emerging economies should work together to deal with the deadlock and reach consensus on low-carbon economy and post 2012 climate change regime. However, the developed countries have and will continue to maintain their leading positions in the post-Kyoto climate regime building process regardless of China and India‘s equity development demands. The collaborations between and among these new emerging economies would safeguard and coordinate balanced development between energy consumption, the Earth's climate, and economic growth.

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13.1. INCREASING ROLE OF EMERGING ECONOMIES AND CLIMATE POLITICS With regard to climate change crisis and the forthcoming Copenhagen negotiations, the complicated and pressing negotiation is the key challenge facing the emerging economies, especially considering the increasing influence of their energy consumptions and carbon emissions on the global climate changes. In this aspect, the emerging economies have become the key stakeholders in Bali Roadmap and Post-Kyoto negotiations. Considering such a crisis as climate changes spread discussed and negotiated all over the World, the solutions with allround knowledge based efforts will build the future scenario for the international society. It has always been argued that developing countries should clarify their climate diplomatic position in order to pursue for more understandings and supports from the developed world and the international community.

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13.1.1. The Changing Structure of Climate Change Politics As to the power-based analysis on climate change political structure, as the world's emerging economies，China, India, South Africa and Brazil are critical to regional and global efforts for global warming, particularly in the Post-Kyoto climate negotiations due to their large population, fast growing economy and low energy efficiency. Thus, the developed countries gradually pay more attention to them, which is manifested in the increasing criticisms and the special requirements on new emerging economies‘ position and policies. The preponderance of evidences on global warming is indisputable and the evolution of climate change presents the emerging economies with major and identical security challenges, to which it cannot be immune. In fact, in most cases, the emerging economies will be among the worst affected due to its vulnerable geographic position and economic structure. The population of the emerging economies has reached near 3 billion people.They are experiencing widespread and more acute climate change disasters with severe local, national and regional consequences during their urbanization, globalization and industrialization process since 1980s. In other words, the emerging economies are central to successful regional and global efforts on low carbon revolution to protect the planet of the Earth, particularly when they are still energy-intensive and high-carbon society. Therefore, understanding the new emerging economies‘ responses to global warming and climate change is important for scholars, practitioners and laypersons, who are interested in global warming and other critical environmental problems. From a narrow perspective of an individual state, the harms done by climate change are potential and real environmental and energy threats. In a broader perspective, understanding the emerging economies‘ responses to global warming can help illuminate the development of climate change Post- Kyoto negotiations and build the bridges to the Copenhagen protocol. More importantly, the Obama Administration has changed the international climate change political configuration in climate change, the European countries and the U.S. began to bridge the divergences arisen during the Bush Administration, and seek more and more common grounds in climate change negotiations, which will create the united camp in Copenhagen conference than before. As the Obama Administration came into force, Obama

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makes climate change a national priority. The US began to play a pro-active role in addressing the global environmental problems. Firstly, the US connects the climate change with US energy independence, and climate change will bring dramatic changes in US leadership the international economic system. The national competitive advantages will be built on the basis of clean and alternative energy. Obama has already committed to enacting a US cap-and-trade scheme and to reducing US greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and by 80% by 2050. Obama promises that the United States would lead the world on climate change, as he emphatically stated that cleaner energy would be at the heart of his domestic agenda. Secondly, the US makes concrete measures on climate change instead of rhetoric words. The Obama Administration makes the international community believe that the US will accept the mid-term and long-term carbon emission reductions,599and will take the lead in negotiating a treaty that will produce better results in the Copenhagen Congress this December. Thirdly, Obama will pursue multilateralism in climate change and persuade the developing countries, particularly emerging powers, to share more responsibilities. Obama argued,

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"To protect our climate and our collective security, we must call together a truly global coalition. I've made it clear that we will act, but so too must the world. China and India they 600 would not be excused from global efforts to tackle climate change.‖

Thus, the developed countries have the identical views for the emerging countries in the developing world participating substance reducing emission in addition to the emission target. The Obama government attempts to form an alliance with the EU to force the emerging developing countries to reduce emissions. There are still Small Island Countries‘ strongly demand and latter developing disadvantages of the global low carbon economy competition. Many theories and practices prove that climate change has become the important issues of the international system transition. On the issue of climate change, developed countries such as the European Countries and the U.S. intend to make the emerging economies to accept the cap to reduce emission by mandatory and voluntary measures. Firstly, the EU countries not only demand the emerging developing countries to reduce emission voluntarily, and also try to set agenda for them. In March 2009, the EU Commission made a new program against the advanced developing countries such as Brazil, China and India to cut the scale of their CDM. The EU argued, as far as the advanced developing countries and those intensely competitive businesses are concerned, the CDM system should give place to carbon market system. So the program definitely indicates the EU‘s attitude, which is to demand the advanced developing countries to reduce emissions. In Copenhagen Conference for climate change, the Demark Prime Minister thought that the emission model of developed countries would not mean any responsibility for the developing countries. And the primary developing countries, such as China and India, should promise to reduce emission 15-20% in 2020. Secondly, the developed countries make use of economic measures to compel the developing countries to 599

―EU confident Obama will follow its lead on climate change‖, Agence France Presse, March 3rd, 2009. US 'ready to lead' on climate change By Andrew Ward and Daniel Dombey in Washington and John Reed in Detroit Financial Times 600

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accept the limit of emission. In order to prevent climate change worsen or protect their infant industries, the developed countries demand to impose the carbon tax or trade tax for those products of impacting carbon emission. The U.S. Energy Minister Steve Chu proposed to impose the import tax of the carbon emission right in the US Congress. Moreover, the EU will also build the relation between the CDM trade and the developing countries‘ reducing emission. Thirdly, the media and leaders of developed countries intensely demand that the emerging developing countries undertake obligation of reducing emission. In Poznan Conference, the EU leaders and Gore, the former US Vice President, proposed that the model of China participating global reducing emission, and hope that China accept the GHG ―Hard Law‖ restriction. The Bali Road map shows that developing world would likely accept mandatory caps (carbon emission reduction timetable and goal) with the measurable, veritable and reportable assistance from the developed world, together with the voluntary approaches of tackling climate change. It is argued by developed countries that emerging economies, such as china, India and Brazil, should take meaningful and concrete responsibilities to cut energy consumption at first, instead of taking the first step by developed countries. As to the potential meaning of the so-called ―emerging economies‖, it is essentially not subjective but objective values and standards based on their power based norms, interest-based political analysis and the Western-centered legitimacy. The main logic is that they will try all means to avoid the change of international status quo with the rising of emerging economies on the one hand, nevertheless requiring these countries to provide similar global common goods originally belonging to them. The international climate change diplomacy of dealing with climate changes is that the tag of ‗non- developing countries‘ is pasted to the so called ‗emerging economies‘ when international community strongly support the principle of ‗Common but Differentiated Responsibilities‘ unchangeable. With increasing reluctance to pay necessary attention and the assistances of developing countries‘ with economic and technological backwardness in energy and low carbon, the developed countries continue to urge the developing countries to upgrade its environmental standards and responsibilities on the emission targets. Currently, the developed countries maintain their leading position in the post-Kyoto climate regime building process. The developed countries initially communicated and consulted with big greenhouse gas emitters in a bid to establish a rational and efficient post-Kyoto system that would safeguard and coordinate balanced development between energy consumption, the Earth's climate, and economic growth. At the same time, the developed countries attempted to persuade the developing countries to accept the soft and hard environmental constraints. The Western countries argue that the Kyoto Protocol places little responsibility on the developing countries, and that the December 2009 Kyoto meeting in Copenhagen will impose carbon emission limits on China and India. As we know, the first promise term of Kyoto protocol will expire in 2012. Thus, the global cap on the developed countries‘ emission target and timetable must be formulated in 2009 Copenhagen negotiation which aims to avoid the anarchy on global carbon emission arrangement after 2012. According to the new international climatic treaty taking effect in 2013, Copenhagen 2009 will be the last deadline of negotiation. However, the economic crisis makes the developed countries push developing countries to agree on the arrangement of reducing charge in Copenhagen in 2012. The new emerging economies will be in a more disadvantageous plight in the respect of funds assistance and technology transfer.

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The Bonn Conference in 2008 indicated a huge negotiation gap between the developed countries and the developing countries for a new global deal on emission reduction arrangement. The developing countries hoped that the developed countries could extend the scale of the emission reduction, and required more finance and technology assistance. The US, EU and other developed countries urge China, India and other developing countries to assume responsibility for reducing carbon emissions as soon as possible. Otherwise, a rapid increase of carbon emissions in the developing world may counterbalance the endeavors of the rich countries. However, the developed countries have not showed enough enthusiasm in transferring advanced clean energy technologies to the developing world. Facing with the continuous economic growth of the emerging countries, the United States, or even the European countries and Japan, would not give these countries the core technologies.601 They would, on the one hand, prevent the other countries from acquiring the core technology, thus to weaken their competitiveness. On the other hand, they are worried that the emerging countries would not protect the intellectual property rights of the advanced technologies. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) reports that in addressing climate change issues, the developed countries ―did not take the responsibility to help developing countries.‖

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13.1.2. Implications of Global Financial Crisis The Global financial crisis will reduce the capacity-building among the emerging economies in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Firstly, the financial crisis has decreased the efforts and attentions of the developed countries academically, economically and politically, particularly in emission reduction and low carbon economy. For example, the Netherlands Cooperation Bank pointed out the loan required by the European renewable energy industries will decrease by 200 trillion Euro. Italy Prime Minister voiced his concern, ―economy depression makes it too luxury to discuss climate change, and energy mix reform should give its priority place to economic recovery‖. Secondly, in order to solve job loss crisis and achieve economic recovery in the earliest possible, most developed countries would be most likely to accept some high carbon and energy intensive macro-economic measures which are always in commensurate with heavy GHG emissions. Ironically, some highly energy-intensive industries home-based in Western countries has fled back. Thirdly, in the financial crisis time, the developed countries will pay more attention to shift their responsibilities in the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol. Australia and Japan have decided to reject the mid-term emission target set in Bali 2007 . Finally, the developed countries decrease the endeavors to aid the developing countries in mitigation and adaptation, which will deepen the developing countries‘ weakness on climate adaptation, particularly in the aspects of food shortage and water crisis. These factors could have uncertainties for the future negotiations on climate change. In the economy and climate crisis time, the economic growth patterns in various countries gradually evolves in a direction that suits new energy and low carbon, which forecasts such a green economy revolution to make economy recovery in developed world. The Energy Policy 601

―G8 Summit 2007 Heiligendamm—Working Together to Counter Climate Change,‖ http://www.g8.de/Content/EN/Artikel/2007/02/2007-02-13-merkel-blair__en.html.

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for Europe calls for a new industrial revolution. Like all industrial revolutions, this one is going to be technology driven and it is the crucial moment to transform our political visions into concrete actions. The United States, Europe and other nations will spend about $100 billion projects to fight climate change under economic stimulus plans. The US New Energy for America plan provides for an investment of $150 billion over ten years to fuel private endeavors in clean energy, generate five million green jobs, do away with imports from the Middle East and Venezuela, generate 10% electricity from renewable by 2012, deploy 1 million US-made plug-in hybrids by 2015, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050 with the help of a cap-and-trade programme and make the US a leader on climate change. The economic stimulus package must be used to launch long-term "green" revolution Five millions new green jobs are sought to be created by not only generating 10% of electricity from renewable by 2012, and 25% by 2025, but also by focusing on energy efficiency, weather rising one million homes annually and developing and deploying clean coal technology. Mr. Obama also urged Congress to pass his $825 billion (600 billion pounds) economic stimulus plan, which includes $90 billion of spending on clean energy. He said it would create 460,000 green jobs over the next three years. He said he intended to double capacity to generate energy from renewable sources and to renovate the nation's electricity grid. Key targets for Washington mentioned by the two included the stimulus package, with proposals to renovate US power generation and incentives for home energy saving, federal legislation on carbon emissions, a move to end US isolation from a global climate change treaty, and federal attitudes to nature conservation and biodiversity602. Considering the so-called green revolution by the developed world, the emerging economies have to cope with the balance between the economic crisis and climate change. With considerations on the so-called low-carbon industrial revolution, these countries, should also strive for later development advantage if they plan to make win-win result in environment and economy. The economic stimulus plan and new macro-economy policy in China, Brazil, and India demonstrate that energy structure optimization and emission reduction have been on the top priority. About one-fourth of economy stimulus funding of China will be used in renew energy, environment protection and conserving energy. Accordingly, the Chinese Central Economy Work Conference in 2008 put emphasis on developing low-carbon economy and circulating economy. Brazil is the emerging leader in global green economy; millions of new working positions come from green industry. India launches a comprehensive national climate change action program, which takes wind energy and solar energy as the focus of economy recovery plan. Recently, India has decided to cut the energy efficiency by 30% till 2020, and reduced GDP per unit emission by 25%. In short, these countries work hard for embracing the historic opportunity to achieve the win-win result between the economic crisis and climate crisis. The UN Secretary indicated that he found the hope to response to tackle climate change from the great efforts among China, Brazil and India‘s low carbon economy stimulus measures. By taking these into considerations, the emerging economies will confront with enormous pressures in international climate change negotiation. Therefore, the emerging economies should set up individual negotiation baseline and strengthen all-round diplomatic efforts as well as joining multilateral negotiation of Post- Kyoto scheme. For most of the developing 602

Alex Spillius,"Obama promises to lead world on climate change,"The Daily Telegraph, January 27, 2009.

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countries, preventing catastrophic climate change is actually an economic challenge that leads to dramatic competition in carbon development and emissions rights. On the one hand, the emerging economies should adhere to the point that the developed countries must fulfill the measurable, verifiable and reportable obligation to help the developing countries as soon as possible ( e.g., technical transfer and financial assistance). The principle of ‗common but differentiated responsibility‘ will protect the economic development rights in the developing world, and have the developed world in the proactive place in GHG emission reduction. Thus, it is inappropriate to oblige developing countries to reduce emissions at the present stage. On the other hand, a concerted transition to low or zero carbon economy is the path that the emerging economies should pursue, especially with financial and technical aids from the developed world. The emerging economies have already and will continue to join the global struggles against global climate changes, to build the balance between economic growth and climate change, to devote themselves to the action on the global climate changes, actively participate, utilize, work shoulder by shoulder for the outcome of Copenhagen negotiation in 2009.

13.2. MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES TAKEN BY NEW EMERGING ECONOMIES

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A generation has passed since the world's governments began to consider seriously the problems of global warming and resulting climate change.603 We know that global warming is caused by human activities - notably the burning of coal, oil and other fossil fuels - resulting in the emissions of carbon dioxide and other 'greenhouse gases' (GHGs).604 The 2007 IPCC synthesis report shows that ―Human-generated greenhouse gases rose by 70 percent between 1970 and 2004, from 28.7 to 49 billion tonnes per year in carbon dioxide (C02) or its equivalent. From 1990 to 2004, the increase was 28 percent. CO2, which now accounts for more than three-quarters of 605 emissions, increased by 80 percent from 1970 and 28 percent from 1990.‖

Global warming in turn causes climate change, which is manifested in rising sea levels, droughts, floods, the spread of pests, harmful to natural ecosystems and species, and other adverse consequences. As these impacts on environmental security have become clearer, governments have started to work unilaterally and in concert to adapt to and – much less 603

Some of these ideas were discussed in Paul G. Harris, 'The Politics and Foreign Policy of Global Warming in East Asia', in Paul G. Harris (ed), Global Warming and East Asia: The Domestic and International Politics of Climate Change (London: Routledge, 2003), pp. 3-18; Paul G. Harris, 'Climate Change Priorities for East Asia: Socio-economic Impacts and International Justice', in Harris, Global Warming and East Asia, pp. 19-39; and Paul G. Harris, 'Global Warming in Asia-Pacific: Environmental Change vs. International Justice', AsiaPacific Review 9, 2 (2002), pp. 130-149. In this article we use the common terminology of 'global warming' to refer to the enhanced greenhouse effect. 604 See Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2001 (3 vols.) (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001). 605 "Main points of the IPCC synthesis report on climate change", Agence France Presse,November 17, 2007.

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robustly – mitigate climate change. In 2007, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report606 concludes, ―billions of people could face shortages of food and water and increased risk of flooding as a result. Nearly all regions, Europe, Africa, Asia and America, are anticipated to be negatively affected by some future impacts of climate change and these will pose challenges 607 to many economic sectors.‖

The 2007 IPCC synthesis report also argues,― Man-made warming could lead to some impacts that are abrupt or irreversible.‖608

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13.2.1. The Circumstances of Emerging Economies to Emissions Greenhouse Gas The emerging economies are among the countries that will suffer the negative effects of climate change. Ecologically speaking, many negative factors such as urbanization and population contribute to their vulnerabilities in climate change crisis. However, with the economic development among the emerging economies, the energy consumption growth and its sustainable development will play a key role, the average greenhouse gas emissions will remain a relatively high level in a long run. Any form of the aim for the reduction of the GHG emissions impairs the emission space of the emerging economies restricting the modernization course. Thus, these countries take part in the action on the global climate changes according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and sustainable development principles: The emerging economies, especially china, will face the increasingly severe pressure from developed countries on the negotiation of climate changes. Furthermore, because these countries are at the development stage of high carbon and densely-populated energy, economy and carbon emissions grow rapidly at the same time, the ability to fulfill the global climate changes is poorly restricted by internal circumstances of social economy. ‗The Bali Roadmap‘ explicitly pointed out all parties of developed and developing countries should have survivable, reportable and checkable GHG reducing emission activities. The developed countries transfer high energy consumption, high pollution industries and service to the emerging developing countries. Most of them are during the period of energy intensive stage, which brings rather pressure for the response to climate change and emission reduction. The forth IPCC assessment report argues carbon emission of energy using will increase from 45% to 110% during the period from 2000 to 2030, 2/3 or 3/4 of which come from the developing 606

―Many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes. It is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a discernible influence on many physical and biological systems with observational evidence from all continents and most oceans showing temperature rises. Climate changes in many physical and biological systems are linked to anthropogenic warming, ‖UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, resource: Maya Jackson Randall,"UN Report Proves Climate Change Cap Makes Economic Sense", DOW JONES NEWSWIRES. May 8, 2007. 607 "IPCC warns climate affects all", Nuclear Engineering International, May 22, 2007. 608 "Main points of the IPCC synthesis report on climate change", Agence France Presse,November 17, 2007.

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countries. And the trend will not be changed before 2020. In the progress of Post-Kyoto negotiation, the emerging economies will have more external pressures because low energy efficiency leads to huge increase in carbon emission. In fact, the result of the increase of China and India‘s GHG emission is from the transformation of global industries.

Brazil Brazil plays an important but peculiar role in the field of climate change, It is not only the world‘ biggest economic entity but also one of the worlds‘ most diversified country in species. More importantly, it is the hometown of the Amazon River basin --- the maximal ecosystem and forest gather field in the world. Brazil has become the world‘ eighth country to emissions greenhouse gas, naming the third only after China and India in developing countries according to the statistic reports of the world resources organization in 2000. Unlike most developed and developing countries, Brazil‘s GHG emissions derive not from energy industry but from the use of unsustainable land resources and the lumber of forests. The Brazilian government takes several measures, including the alcohol program, electrical energy conservation program aiming at the investment of negative resources about without the programmer on the assemble of forest carbon and other aspects. Brazil accelerates the comprehensive research to analyze how the climate changes influence in its economy, society, agriculture, health and environment. These research findings undoubtedly will help the government‘s policies to better meet the needs of the already existing climate changes.

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India Since the economic reform in 1991, India‘s energy consumption increases drastically due to the fast economic growth. According to incomplete statistics, India‘ GHG emissions in 2004 increase by 50% compared to that in 1994 naming the sixth in 1990 to forth in 2004. According to the statistic of International Energy Agency, India is estimated to rise 50% from 2001 to 2025, occupying the world‘s 4% to 6% reaching 0.5 billion tons (1.834 billion tons of carbon dioxide).The annual increasing rate is 2.9%. Nevertheless, the annual general emissions amounts occupy world‘s 4.3%, the world‘s 2.3% of the accumulative emissions amounts. Its average amount is even more below the world‘s average level reaching the world‘s average level‘s 27%, America and Canada‘s 1/20, Russia, Japan, Germany and English‘s 1/10 and china‘s 1/4. The strategy for India‘s climate is firstly to speed up development to adjust to its climate changes. Secondly, further steps should be taken to strengthen the sustainability of the Indian development. And efforts should be made to reduce the energy consumption intensity on the basis of developed countries fulfilling the obligation of providing funds and technological aids. Therefore, although Indian government did not propose a general objective of slowing down the GHG emissions in its national plan to deal with climate changes, they show that they would fulfill their obligation of slowing down through all kinds of projects and plans. The Indian government set up some goals correlated with dealing with climate changes in the national ―Eleventh Five-Year Planning‖（20072012）including setting up mid and long-term program of energy efficiency (to the period of 2016-2017), enabling the national energy efficiency improve 20%; the goal of energy-saving within the programming period; proposing that the goal of GHG emissions intending used by energy, requiring that the GHGS emissions used by unit energy dropped 20%.

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South Africa The general goal of South Africa‘s slowing down the climate changes is to let GHG emissions reach climax from 2020 to 2050, to realize the absolute decrease of emissions, after nearly dozens of years of steady development. (South Africa‘s environment and tourism affairs apartment, 2008), and increase the use of regenerate resources and improve the efficiency of the use of energy. South Africa‘s ―National Strategies Dealing with Climate Changes‖ also plan the preferential fields dealing with internal climate change in including drawing up a plan to slow down the GHG emissions, controlling the emissions from motor vehicles, controlling the emissions from coal mining, encouraging industries to develop sustainable, and reducing the GHG emissions from agriculture and forestry as well as department of wastes disposal, etc. It also points out that although the government strategy takes the pressure from international society of requiring developing countries to quantify the promise into account, the original point of drawing up plans is still to realize the sustainable development under which deals with climate changes, not undertaking the responsibility of greenhouse gases emissions.

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China As the world's largest economic powerhouse, China is vital to regional and global efforts to fight global warming particularly in the Post-Kyoto climate negotiations. Due to its high economic development and low energy efficiency, in the early 1990s China became the second largest source of GHGs, and it will become the largest source by 2020.609 As the general amount increases, we should also see that the emissions intensity of the carbon dioxide of china‘s average GDP take the trend of decreasing. According to the statistics from the international energy organization, China‘ average emissions intensity of the GDP fossil fuels burning carbon dioxide is 5.47 kg co2/dollar (price in 2000).in 2004, it fell to 2.76 kg co2/dollar, dropping 49.5%. Meanwhile, the average world‘s level dropped 12.6%, members of economic cooperation and development organization dropping 16.1%.in the nearly two or three years, the national average GDP energy consumption dropped 1.79% from 2005 to 2006, dropping 3.66% from 2006 to 2007.China‘s economy has managed to boom despite the limitations in energy supply and the former and current leadership all recognize the imperative to balance environment and energy. Premier Wen Jiabao stressed that Energy use per unit of GDP must be reduced by 20% from 2005 to 2010. Under the new circumstances, the Chinese government is shifting from the past development principle of "fast and healthy growth" to "healthy and fast growth".610 China government has issued the Energy Conservation Law (1997), the Renewable energy law of the People’s Republic of China (2005). Since the Eighth Five-year plan (1991-1995), global climate change has been a priority in plans for the state energy plan. In the Eleventh Five year program, China will accelerate the pace of building a resource-efficient and environmentally-friendly society, and promote the harmonization of economic development with the population, resources, and the environment. China issued its National Action Plan on Climate Change in June 2007, in 609

See the UNFCCC's Document, 'GHG Emissions and Reduction Targets', . Accessed on 15 October 2003. China's Office of National Coordination Committee for Climate Change (ed), 'China's GHG emission in the World', . Accessed on 15 October 2003. 610 "Official says China attaches importance to climate change", Industry Updates, April 25, 2007.

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which the Chinese government established the following goals to 2010: (1) Reduce energy consumption by 20%; (2) Increase share of renewable (including large-scale hydropower) to 10% of primary energy supply; (3) Increase coal-bed methane production to 10bn cubic meters a year; (4) Promote nuclear power development.611

13.2.2. Main policies in the climate negotiation for the emerging economies

Brazil With regard to climate negotiation, Brazil views that the global climate changes at present are the result of accumulative stay of greenhouse gases in the air, not the cause of annual emissions. Furthermore, the annual emissions statistics in general overestimates the developing countries while underestimating developed countries. Therefore, Brazil is firmly convinced that they will not restrict the greenhouse gases emissions by the middle of this century. Ken Johnson argues, ―Brazil has used the negotiations to pursue its own national interests, even when they diverge from the position of the G-77 group and China. Brazil seeks an agreement that will not limit its development goals.‖ 612 Brazil quests for regional and even global leadership, especially among developing countries. The multilateral forum, such as the climate change negotiations, provides a platform to articulate and pursue Brazilian interests. Brazil is a major developing country that shares with many developmental concerns of other developing countries but also has a number of characteristics that are more akin to the developed countries. Climate changes negotiation provides Brazil with a platform to realize its own interests. Brazil is an important developing country. However, it also characterizes with developed countries as owning ripe technology and complete industrial foundation in climate change.

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India For the Indian government, ―there are two obvious limitations: the first related to the North‘s desire to prevent global environmental degradation. The second limitation related to the South‘s perception of vulnerability in relation to the North.‖ 613 ―Indian governments have been preoccupied with the problem of poverty and the need for industrialization and economic growth. This has laid a de facto prioritization of development over the environment.‖ 614 Thus, India attaches great importance on the issue of climate changes negotiation and its promise of the UNFCCC reflected in a document concerning internal sustainable development and climate change. As the promise of the UNFCCC, India presided over the eighth conference of contracting parties in New Delhi. For a long time, the Indian government‘s negotiation of climate changes concentrated on the three points. Firstly, 611

Xinhua News Agency, ―China National Action Plan on Climate Change‖, http://news.xinhuanet.com/ politics/2007-06/04/content_6196300.htm 612 Ken Johnson, "Brazil and the Politics of the Climate Change Negotiations." Journal of Environment & Development, Vol. 10, No. 2 (June 2001), p. 199... 613 Mukund Govind Rajan, Global Environmental Politics: India and the North-South Politics of Global Environmental Issues (Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 272. 614 Mukund Govind Rajan, ―India‘s Foreign Environmental Policy‖, Global Environmental Politics: India and the North-South Politics of Global Environmental Issues, (Oxford University Press, 1997).p. 31.

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developed countries have created and are still intensifying the threat of climate changes, so they should shoulder the main obligations of reducing GHG emissions. Secondly, although the emissions amounts of developing countries are growing year by year, the problem is not created by them. They are deficient in resources and don‘t possess necessary technologies, so they require technical and economic assistance. Even though they possess sufficient resources, the backward economy will influence the effects of the policies implementation. Since many factors resulted in the climate changes, the handling measures should be diversified. Developing countries would accept those measures unaffecting not only the economic development, but also acquiring the necessary resources of economic development. Govind Rajan argues, ―Economic considerations are very important in Indian policy.‖ 615 In the negotiation of international climate changes India insisted on the principle of ―common but differentiated responsibilities‖. India is still a developing country and in global environmental governance, it has not committed to any immediate concrete responsibility for reducing green house gases (GHG) according to the ―no regret‖ principle. India places emphasis on the preferential rights of development and struggle for per capital carbon emissions in negotiations. The Indian government always takes steps to coordinate the position of the developing world on climate change, ―coordination of policy with coalition of developing countries was the basic strategy that India adopted in global environmental negotiations to secure its interests.‖ However, India is not obstinate on the mechanisms put forward by developed countries, displaying in many aspects flexibility. In 2008, India emphasized in the handing programmed for climate changes countries, as a forgiving member, responsible for the international society, has already prepared to make contribution to global climate.‖ In June, 2008 also approved 969 programmers of CDM of which 340 programmers have been registered by executive council occupying 32% of the world‘s total, placing the world‘s largest recipient.

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China In 2007 APEC Summit, Chinese president Hu Jintao put forward four proposals for tackling climate change: ―First, cooperation is indispensable to global efforts to tackle climate change. Second, efforts are needed to pursue sustainable development, as climate change is ultimately a development issue and it can only be addressed in the course of sustainable development. Third, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change should be upheld as the core mechanism for addressing climate change. The Convention and its Kyoto Protocol constitute the legal basis for international cooperation on climate change and are the most authoritative, universal and comprehensive international frameworks for the issue. Fourth, efforts should be made to promote scientific and technological innovation, as science and 616 technology are important means for tackling climate change.‖

China joined with other developing countries to demand that the developed countries reduce their GHG emission, rejected most market-based international mechanisms for 615

Mukund Govind Rajan, Global Environmental Politics: India and the North-South Politics of Global Environmental Issues (Oxford University Press, 1997), p. 249 616 China Ministry of Foreign Affairs,.

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emission reductions advocated by developed countries, and demanded assistance for developing countries‘ climate change programs.617 In particular, China has joined with India in reiterating its outright rejection of GHG emission cuts for developing countries, arguing that increased emissions are required to lift their people out of poverty.

13.3. ANALYSIS OF THE COPING STRATEGIES

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OF NEW EMERGING ECONOMIES If we want to determine the position and policy of international negotiations, we must first grasp the actual situation of their own. The capacity of developing countries to a large extent determines their negotiating position. Developing countries believe that human activities since the industrial revolution are the main cause of global warming. Further reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is the primary means of addressing global warming. In the process of industrialization, developed countries have emitted significant amounts of greenhouse gases. Therefore, developed countries cannot shirk their responsibilities. Instead, they should bear the primary obligation. However, this does not mean that new emerging economies do not have a responsibility to act on climate change as they develop. Because the climate is a typical global public goods, Only the world including developing countries to participate in order to truly curb the ongoing crisis of climate change. In the process of their economic development, new emerging economies should focus on the introduction and assimilation of advanced clean technologies in order to address climate change and make the best possible contribution. This will indicate a willingness to work with the international community and the "Kyoto Protocol", and confirm the principle of "common but differentiated responsibility". Developed countries have put forward a variety of emissions reduction programs, basically took control of the initiative in international climate negotiations. If major developing countries simply object to participating in emissions reduction, it will only lead to diplomatic difficulties. Major developing countries should be involved in negotiations as early as possible to the tone and tactics to promote their participation in the global synergies targeted reductions, while promoting national economic and social sustainable development, which will become the core of the problem. New emerging economies should strengthen internal unity, and to take the lead in substantive reductions in developed countries, and establish a coherent climate change strategy.

13.3.1 Major Developing Countries Should Actively Build a Low-Carbon Society At the strategic level, the new emerging economies should change the policy orientation about of over-emphasis on energy security but relative neglect climate change and issues of 617

Bayer J Linnerooth, ―Climate Change and Multiple Views of Fairness‖, in Ference L. Toth (ed), Fair Weather? Equity Concerns in Climate Change (London: Earthscan, 1999), p.59.

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the environment. Climate security issues should be incorporated into the national security strategy and long-term development framework, to promote comprehensive management of the emerging national strategy. The global low-carbon future and the emergence of low-carbon technology will enhance the energy industry worldwide and the strategic position of the equipment manufacturing industry. New emerging economies are faced with unprecedented competitive pressure and opportunities for development. In the process, these new emerging economies should strengthen laws, regulations, policies, systems and management mechanisms to actively address climate change. They should also create a strong institutional, policy and market environment for low-carbon development of enterprises. In view of the industrial structure and the capacity, major developing countries should carry out industrial upgrades, eliminate outdated production capacity, and focus on energy efficiency and a positive investment for green energy. More importantly, a range of tools should be used to help establish the market mechanism and industrial systems, such as encouraging technical innovation, promoting legislation, changing consumption patterns and establishing a carbon market. At the same time, we should appropriate adjust the trade policy, appropriate restrictions on the export of high energy consumption products, and expand the import of manufactured goods. Technology is the most important long-term strategy to deal with climate change. At the technical level, Chinese science and technology have provided some good tools to address climate change. We should vigorously develop energy-saving and energy efficient technologies, renewable energy and new energy technologies, and clean coal. Other technologies we should explore and utilize include advanced nuclear energy, carbon capture and storage, biosequestration and carbon sequestration. The development of energy technologies may be to reduce the cost of nearly one trillion U.S. dollars each. Therefore, new emerging economies should work with the European Union and other developed countries on technology transfer and the implementation of clean emissions mechanisms through the carbon market to promote the restructuring of energy and clean energy development. New, emerging economies need to educate the public to improve awareness of the lowcarbon issue. Experience has shown that effective social participation is the basis for a transition to a low-carbon economy. Low-carbon consumption needs to become part of the social conscious, and we need to guide people in ways to save energy and reduce carbon. We should first encourage government and social organizations to participate in the low-carbon economy. Through their economies of scale, they can promote the transition to environmental protection at relatively low cost. Secondly, we should promote the concept of low-carbon lifestyles for individual citizens, to ensure the low-carbon transition is universal. In new, emerging economies, low-carbon living is still hampered by a lack of social infrastructure. We should strengthen civic education to avoid a high-carbon lifestyle in the future.

13.3.2. The Negotiation Strategy of Addressing Climate Change We first need to strengthen the internal policy coordination of new emerging economies. Climate change is a highly uncertain issue, and the mitigation of greenhouse gases is very complex. Climate change itself is a highly political scientific issue. New emerging economies need to improve their coordination of climate change diplomacy, and especially the exchange

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of information between the relevant departments. States should promote the appropriate exchange of information and knowledge between departments, to strengthen high-level mutual trust on areas such as energy strategy. New emerging economies should improve their climate change coordination mechanisms in order to facilitate coordinated climate diplomacy. At the same time, foreign affairs departments should strengthen energy cooperation in the climate in terms of leadership and coordination. We should encourage developed countries to reach a consensus as soon as possible after the 2012 emissions reduction targets and commitments, different their collective pressure on the unity of the developing countries stand, and to create a political atmosphere of good diplomacy for the negotiations on climate change. The principle of ―common but differentiated responsibilities‖ is a global consensus of the UNFCCC. This principle means that the industrialized, wealthy countries of the world bear responsibility for global warming because of their historic emissions of greenhouse gases for more than three hundred years. Furthermore, developed countries‘ per capita emissions remain far above those of developing countries, meaning that their responsibility continues. New, emerging economies should actively promote multilateral climate diplomacy, and in particular continue to strengthen climate cooperation with the United States, EU, and Japan as a bargaining chip to increase and upgrade the status of major developing countries emerging. The EU is an active promoter of the GHG emissions reduction negotiations, through the Clean Development Mechanism, New emerging economies and the EU has to build up a mutual trust. China and the United States — the world's largest developing and developed countries — are the largest energy consumers and largest emitters of greenhouse gases, but also do not have substantive participation in carbon emission reduction. At the Bonn meeting in March/April 2009?, the U.S. chief negotiator said the United States would only agree with the "politically and technically achievable" emissions reduction. At the same time, China has maintained its stance of developing countries not participating in substantial emissions reduction. The common ground will lead to new emerging economies strengthen cooperation to U.S. New emerging economies advocate the establishment of new cooperation mechanisms. China has always attached importance to and promotes cooperation with developing countries, especially with the new emerging economies. "Working hand in hand to cope with global challenges" should be an important principle of collaboration among all developing countries. For example: the EU may be due to a significant reduction in the size of CDM in developing countries after 2012, New emerging economies should actively plan for a "one voice" to jointly deal with challenges. In addition, new emerging economies should also promote the transition of energy technologies and energy restructuring, and financial support in the common progress. International negotiations of post-Kyoto era addition to the focus on emission reduction targets in real terms than that of how developed countries to promote the technical and financial support for developing countries. New emerging economies should also play a leading role in building their own course of sustainable development in the abovementioned areas, actively promote the technology and capital flows among developing countries, and encourage all developing countries to embark on the path towards a low-carbon economy and sustainable development. However, new emerging economies should be wary of a plot of different "the Group of 77 and China" by developed countries. In addition, new emerging economies have to face the pressure of the vast number of developing countries, especially the least developed countries and small island states. To alleviate the occurrence of the passive situation, we should

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strengthen communication and exchanges with these countries, which is an important strategic path for us. Because the "Kyoto Protocol" provides that the developing countries without the responsibilities of emission reduction, which is laid a broad basis for developing countries and its cooperation. To this end, the new emerging economies should insist that the United Nations dominant position of addressing climate change. We should safeguard the "Group of 77 and China of" unity, emphasize the complementary roles on the eight-nation summit and other multilateral consultations. We should also urge the implementation of the National Assistance Fund for the vast number of developing countries (especially in tropical areas, rainforest areas and small island countries), to provide various forms of climate change adaptation and mitigation funding.

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APPENDIX I

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IN THE BELLY OF THE PRINCETON REPORT: FRESH AND STRATEGIC THINKING ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY Energy consumption is the primary source of one of the most important global challenges: climate change. Thus, there is a pressing need for strategic thinking about the balance between environment and energy around the world. All states in the world should make international efforts to address the conflicts between energy use and environmental protection. The Princeton report called for reducing U.S. dependence on Middle-East oil, and it suggested a tax on gasoline and much stricter automobile fuel-efficiency standards to resolve the dilemma between the energy consumption model and environmental protection. On a global level, it requires the U.S. to re-enter into international negotiations for a GHGs emissions target, and plays a proactive and leadership role in international struggles against global warming. We can conclude that this report advises an incremental shift in U.S. energy policy from energy security towards the quality and independence of energy supply, from over-extracting energy resources to seeking a harmonious relationship of energy and environment. The trend of global environmental threats across the U.S. is approximately consistent with that around the globe. In addition to the Princeton report, we should rethink the relationship between environment and energy more by forethought than by inertia, more from the globe than from the U.S. itself. My presentation aims to go much further than the Princeton report on environment and energy from the three points that follow: first to emphasize the role of the U.S. as a global balancer, second to put higher priorities on the model of China harmonious society for the developing world, and third to stress the global development rights and basic energy needs in the developing world.

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THE ROLE OF THE U.S. IN THE RELATION ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT As the world's largest and most influential country, the U.S. is central to regional and global efforts for a harmonious relationship between energy and the environment. However, the history of the U.S. is largely the history of over-extracting and using fossil fuel. The U.S. energy policy has focused on promoting continued availability of cheap energy618 from all over the world. According to the International Energy Annual 2004, the U.S. is home to 4% of the world‘s population, it uses 25% (about 20.7 million barrels) of the world oil in a day (about 82.5 million barrels per day).619 At the same time, the profligate use of energy sources has made the U.S. the world largest contributor to global warming (over one-quarter of global carbon emissions) and led to major human security concerns. It is becoming increasingly clear that U.S. energy consumption model is not sustainable, and its current energy policy fails to adequately balance environment and energy. The Princeton report put much emphasis on addressing environmental and national security concerns, which are the overriding features of modern energy consumption. However, the advice (e.g., gasoline tax, alternative clean energy) is not a clear, long-term and concrete directive to clean up energy supplies or reduce dependence on oil imports. Particularly for the gasoline tax in the Princeton report, as early as in the 1990s, the U.S. scientists argued that a carbon or gasoline tax may help improve energy efficiency and could provide financial resources to global environmental protection, but they unfortunately found that such a tax would cost the U.S. alone in excess of $125 billion.620 Considering such a huge economic cost, the Princeton report‘s notion of a gasoline tax looks like a non-starter. The Princeton report argues that there lacks an effective global framework for tackling global warming. However, this report ignores the successful regime -UNFCCC and its Kyoto Protocol. According to the negotiation position from ―China plus Country 77,‖ which represents 80% of the world‘s countries, ―The UNFCCC provides a fundamental and effective framework for international cooperation in response to climate change. Compliance with the principles enshrined in the Convention.‖ Unfortunately, the Princeton report ignores the prudent hedging strategy of the Bush administration to abandon the Kyoto Protocol. Even after the movie ―An Inconvenient Truth‖ by Al Gore and after more than 200 U.S. cities and states have said the U.S. should join the Kyoto Protocol, the Princeton report still refuses to push the U.S. to ratify the Kyoto Protocol immediately; it suggests seeking alternative approaches different from the Kyoto Protocol. 621 It‘s a great pity for the Princeton report to forget the CDM project in the Kyoto Protocol. This Government-mandated trading of carbon dioxide emissions began in January 2005, and carbon credit trading has been going smoothly in London, Chicago, Beijing and New Delhi. These efforts hold great promise for fighting global warming. 618

The U.S. industry structure is characteristic by high rate of fossil fuel combustion per capital and per unit of economic out-put. 619 International Energy Annual 2004. 620 T.C. Schelling, "Economic Responses to Global Warming: Prospects for Cooperative Approaches," in Rudiger Dornbusch and James M. Poterba, eds., Global Warming: Economic Policy Responses (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1991), p. 198. 621 actually came into effect, and nearly most countries except the U.S. get the consensus on it.

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The Princeton report encourages the U.S. to pioneer in developing innovative concepts and instruments of shaping the energy and environmental balance, however, the U.S. always lag behind the EU countries when it implements the policy initiatives created by itself (e.g., 622 JI, IET and CDM ). As early as 1992 Rio, the U.S. affirmed its commitment to contribute 0.7 per cent of their GDP to overseas development assistance as part of the funding proposed to implement Agenda 21 (sustainable development in the developing world), it has not fulfilled this commitment, and has fallen well short of that goal, contributing less than 0.2 per cent of its GDP. Since 2005, though China, Japan and other Asian countries have joined the U.S. leadership in launching an Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate Asia-Pacific Partnership for energy technologies development, the Bush Administration only invested 5 million U.S. dollars for it. The Princeton Report suggests that the U.S. must take the lead in bringing the developed and developing countries together to agree on a common framework for action that includes mutual commitments. Actually, there exists a common basis for developing countries-U.S. cooperation in fighting against global warming. Developing countries agreed with the U.S. on adaptation measures for climate change (transfers of funds and technology from developed to developing countries). Some developing countries (e.g., China) joined the U.S. in opposing EU‘s mitigation measures for climate change (preventing climate change in the short run).

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THE SIGNIFICANT ROLE OF CHINA IN BALANCING GLOBAL ENERGY USE AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION Currently, China‘s economy is one of the world's largest and fastest growing. Consequently, China is experiencing widespread and often acute energy shortages and environmental degradation problems with severe national, regional and global consequences. The Princeton Report argues that China‘s energy consumption will increase by 150% by 2020, and will become the strongest competitor to the U.S. for oil and gas623. However, China is actually the model for resolving the conflicts between energy consumption and environmental degradation. Chinese former and current leadership recognizes the same imperative to balance environment and energy. Deng Xiaoping pointed out that energy efficiency was essential to achieve economic goals in China. Premier Wen Jiabao stressed that energy use per unit of GDP must be reduced by 20% from 2005 to 2010. From 1980 to 2001, with China‘s average GDP growth rates about 10 percent, China had about a 10 percent growth rate in energy consumption. China‘s economy has managed to ―thrive despite the limitations in energy supply‖624. Though some developed country governments – notably the U.S. – demand that China do more to limit its energy consumption, the evidence from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory suggests that China 622

By so doing, industrialized countries could meet part of their obligations for reducing their emissions by receiving credits for investing in projects that reduce carbon emissions in developing countries. 623 Based on Yu Hongyuan‘s interview with Steve Chu, a Nobel prize laureate in May 2006. 624 James Dorian, ― China‘s Energizing Economy‖, Forum for Applied Research and Public Policy, Summer 2001, 16,2, p.101. Sara Beam, ―Booming Economy, Booming Emissions‖, Environment, Dec., 2003, 45,10, P.4.David Street, Kejuan Jiang, Xiulian Hu, Jonathan Sinton et al, ― Recent Reduction in China‘s Green House Gases Emissions,‖ Science, Nov.,30, 2001.294,5548, p.1835.

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is already more efficient than many of its counterparts in the developing world. However, this Laboratory also argued that China's energy use has grown much faster than GDP since the end of 2001, which puts China's development goals and global climate change struggles in jeopardy. To meet this challenge, China has laid out many tasks, policies, measures for developing a resource-conserving society, and developing a recycling economy. We should notice that high growth of energy consumption is required for the capital intensive industrialization period in the current Chinese economy, but will be reduced at postindustrialization stages sooner or later. China plays a more proactive role in international climate change negotiations. China‘s former Premier Zhu Rongji first put forward the concept of human-oriented development which focuses on the harmony between the use of energy and resource use and environmental protection. Afterwards, China adhered to the plan to push human sustainable development and build a harmonious world. As the first country to ratify the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, China has made contributions to climate change negotiations, notably when doing so would help codify requirements that developed countries help developing countries in the context of climate change. In 2000, China put forward a 'no regrets' policy for the FCCC negotiations (meaning that it will share some concrete responsibilities to reduce the GHG emissions provided they do not adversely affect its economic development). As a developmental state, China‘s energy and environmental policies concentrated on the state capacity to pursue and encourage the achievement of explicit and development objectives. In order to build, the China model allows long-term development projects and contracts to evolve around the balanced development. For some developing countries which follow western democracy and a PAR model, these states are subject to pressures from special interests and thus often lower efficiency, and lack of long-term development goal to balance energy and environment. In addition, in some developing countries, democracy has led to weaker governments unable to make the hard decisions necessary for the harmonious relationship between environment and energy because democracy promotes more widespread public involvement and makes government errors subject to quick exposure. According to China‘s Ministry of Finance, from 1992-2003, the GEF has made US$12 billion in commitments to China, more than 70% for climate change mitigation initiatives from the foundation of this mechanism. Developed countries are the principal emitters of GHG emissions and therefore should bear the primary responsibilities in addressing the climate change problem.

The Global Developmental Rights The Princeton report seems to criticize the developing world for its fast growth in energy use and its weak incentives to take concrete steps to fight global warming. In fact, it ignores the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities, the global consensus in the UNFCCC and other international environmental laws. This principle means that the industrialized, wealthy countries of the world bear responsibility for global warming because of their historic emissions of greenhouse gases for more than 300 hundred years.

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Furthermore, developed countries‘ per capita emissions remain far above those of developing countries, meaning that their responsibility continues. The Princeton report also neglects the fact that the overriding priority for most developing countries is poverty eradication and economic development. These countries try to guarantee the priority of economic stability and growth when they deal with the relations between energy and environment. The global warming issues in most developing countries have been intimately linked with efforts to modernize the economy and the energy strategy employed to fuel that modernization. On the one hand, if most developing countries decrease the emission of GHGs by 10-20%, the GDP of the country decreases by 2%. When per capita income increases by 51%, the emissions of GHG increase by 1.29%. Decreasing the emission of GHG has a negative effect on the economic development priority principle in these countries. The economic cost to reducing the GHG emissions will be thousands of billions USD, including energy industry rebuilding, and the introduction of clean energy technology; for example, coal-based energy represents 60-70% of the Chinese energy structure. If China has to transform it to an oil-based or natural-gas-based energy structure, billions of dollars will be needed. The U.S. and other developed countries‘ energy use is extravagant, wasteful and competitive. But most developing countries (e.g., China and India) only struggle for their basic needs satisfaction, such as completion of industrialization of urbanization and basic physical life adequacy. It‘s an inalienable right of the developing world to further develop its economy, improve living standards, and enjoy the same living standards of people in the developed countries. Fortunately, the Princeton report suggests that developed countries should undertake transfers of advanced, environmentally friendly technologies and provide financial assistance to developing countries to improve their capacity building for global warming while meeting the needs of sustainable development.

CONCLUSION What are the implications of the Princeton Report on global environment and energy? Clearly it has done something, but equally clear is that it is does not adequately address the global dilemma on energy and environment. Keohane has argued that, "if there is neither a hegemonic leader nor an international regime, prospects for cooperation are bleak indeed, and dilemmas of collective action are likely to be severe."625 From this point, international environmental and energy cooperation cannot be successful without the participation and leadership of the U.S. However, as the world's wealthiest country, the U.S. has failed utterly in acting to address climate change issues. Though argued in the Princeton report, the U.S. can seek to make incremental changes in global and domestic energy policy to make its energy consumption more clear while avoiding a global warming disaster. However, the U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases are rising much higher than the Annex 1 countries‘ requirements in the Kyoto Protocol, and it will act as the world's most profligate global polluter in the near future. The U.S. economic interests and the interest groups from the energy industry will still come with clear restrictions that the Bush Administration has shown 625

Robert O. Keohane, After Hegemony (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1984), p. 81.

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an unwillingness to accept the Kyoto Protocol, which will damage the credibility of the proposal of the Princeton report. The present relationship between energy and environment has changed, and is at a vital turning point for building a harmonious and balanced relationship. Based on the previous discussion, the world can benefit from the developing countries–particularly China‘s–growth, and China‘s model to manage the balance between energy and environment should be leaner by all the developing countries according to the UNEP. For other powers seeking leadership for energy and environment, EU's willingness to trade support for Russian accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) for ratification of the Kyoto Protocol made the international struggles against climate change much more promising than before. Thus, the EU will continue to act as the leader in building a harmonious relationship between energy and the environment.

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APPENDIX II Questionnaire on Strengthening the Government Response to Climate Change

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(1) China should continue to work together with the international community under the framework of the Protocol, pledge consistently to maintain its serious response to climate change, and formally join the Kyoto Protocol. Do you think that this proposal is: (select from the responses below) A. Very timely: to be endorsed B. Ill-timed: to be opposed C. In need of further research D. Other (2) In your opinion, the principal issues to be resolved when dealing with the threats associated with climate change are, in descending order of importance: A. Scientific B. Economic C. Energy-related D. Technological capital-related E. Agricultural F. Effective interdepartmental coordination-related G. Other: please specify (3) China ought to take the leading role in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. Is this a viewpoint that you: A. Strongly support B. Agree with C. Have no clear opinion on D. Disagree with (4) What kind of role should China play in international climate change negotiations? A. Active leader of developing nations B. First and foremost protector of the nation‘s interests C. Coordinator of cooperation with developed nations D. Coordinator of cooperation with developing nations E. Other: please specify

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(5) Do you believe that it is time for China to undertake substantive obligations and opportunities at home and abroad, with regard to the climate change pact? (select one response) A. Yes B. Not yet C. Not for a long time yet If your answer is A, in which area do you think China should focus its efforts? A. Scientific and technological research B. Global environment C. Economic development D. Other: please specify If you selected response B, in which areas, in the meantime, do you think China should focus its efforts? A. Scientific and technological research B. Global environment C. Economic development D. Other: please specify

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(6) If China were to undertake substantial reductions in greenhouse gases, which areas do you think would be most seriously affected by such action? A. Energy industry B. Economic development C. Agriculture D. Other, please specify (7) If China were to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, which of the resulting opportunities would be to its greatest advantage? A. Technology transfers B. Improvements to China‘s global image C. Transformation of the energy industry D. Global environmental trade E. Scientific and technological progress F. Other: please specify (8) The best way to gain an understanding of climate change and the corresponding international bodies is through: A. Participating in international negotiations B. International training or overseas study C. Practical work D. Normal studies E. Other: please specify

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(9) If you have participated in climate change-related international training, what kind of influence did it have on you? (Choose as many responses as are relevant) A. It made me acknowledge the gravity of the need for greenhouse gas reduction. B. It increased my knowledge on the issue. C. It made clear China‘s climate change interests among those of the international community D. Other: please specify (10) Which government department(s) function do you think should be given priority in the effort to strengthen the response to climate change? Please specify: (11) How necessary do you think inter-departmental coordination is on an issue as complicated and global as climate change? A. Extremely necessary B. Necessary C. Hardly necessary D. Not necessary E. Don‘t know

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(12) Do you approve of the government‘s increased efforts to correlate information exchange as regards climate change coordination work among relevant departments? A. Heartily approve B. Approve C. Scarcely approve D. Do not approve E. Don‘t know (13) Do you approve of the government‘s increased efforts to increase reciprocal trust among relevant departments as regards coordination of work on climate change? A. Heartily approve B. Approve C. Scarcely approve D. Do not approve E. Don‘t know (14) Do you think government efforts to minimize departmental disputes as regards climate change coordination work are: A. Extremely necessary B. Necessary C. Hardly necessary D. Not necessary E. Don‘t know

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(15) Do you agree with China‘s efforts continuously to strengthen and perfect its climate change coordination work? A. Absolutely agree B. Agree C. Scarcely agree D. Disagree E. Don‘t know (16) The main reasons for China‘s creation of policy coordination mechanism with regards to climate change are: (Please list in descending order of importance) A. The complexity of climate change matters B. The major influence of climate change on China‘s future C. The objective needs of greenhouse gas reduction D. Its having been a systematic decision E. Pressure from international negotiations F. Other, please specify

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(17) Do you agree that China has smoothly launched climate change coordination work? A. Absolutely agree B. Agree C. Scarcely agree D. Disagree E. Don‘t know (18) What do you think is/are the main reason(s) for China‘s smooth launching of climate change coordination work? (Make as many choices as you think appropriate) A. Its utmost national importance B. Support from international organizations C. Departmental coordination D. Climate change negotiation requirements E. Other, please specify (19) Which function is the department to which you belong developing as regards responding to climate change? (Choose as many as you think appropriate) A. Academic research B. Project support C. Participation in negotiations D. Formulating policy F. Other, please specify (20) Do you believe the influence of international negotiations and climate change research on China‘s policy-making is: A. Extremely significant B. Fairly significant C. Average D. Negligible

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(21) Do you think that the influence on China‘s government departments of international aid or loans in order to help prevent climate change is: A. Extremely significant B. Fairly significant C. Average D. Negligible E. Don‘t know (22) Do you agree that perfecting China‘s climate change coordination work as regards its participation in international actions to reduce greenhouse emissions is essential? A. Very much agree B. Agree C. Scarcely agree D. Disagree E. Don‘t know

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(23) What do you think the main method of perfecting China‘s climate change coordination system should be? A. Strengthening establishment of a coordination mechanism B. Increasing scientific and technological research in the area of climate change C. Increasing investment in the area of climate change D. Its receiving the attention of state leaders E. Inter-departmental coordination F. Other, please specify (24) What international factors motivate China to perfect its climate change coordination work? Please list in descending order of importance: A. International organizations and non-governmental organizations B. International expertise and international training C. International environmental loans and aid D. International negotiation requirements F. Other, please specify

List for Receivers of My Questionnaires Dai Xiaosu Ma Xiaoguang Ding Yihui Xu Ying Luo Yong Tian Chunxiu Mu Gangfeng Wang Yi

China Meteorological Administration China Meteorological Administration China Meteorological Administration China Meteorological Administration China Meteorological Administration State Environmental Protection Administration State Environmental Protection Administration State Environmental Protection Administration

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218

Yu Hongyuan Li Liyan Hu Xiulian Guo Yuan Sun Cuihua Ma Aimin Zhao Penggao Wang Yanxia Wang Wenyuan Zhou Hailin Zhang Jiayuan Xu Shaoming Huang JIng Liu Shirong Chen Enjun Li Daoliang Zhao Chunlin Lin Erda Feng Liping Wu Shunling

Committee of Development and Planning Committee of Development and Planning Committee of Development and Planning Committee of Development and Planning Committee of Development and Planning State Economic and Trade Committee State Economic and Trade Committee Ministry of Science and Technology Ministry of Science and Technology Ministry of Science and Technology Ministry of Science and Technology Ministry of Science and Technology State Forestry Administration State Forestry Administration Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Water Sources

Lee Rui

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Wu Jianguo

Ministry of Finance Ministry of Construction

Lu Yingyun Wang Yongqing Guo Peiyuan Duan Maosheng

Tsinghua University Tsinghua University Tsinghua University Tsinghua University

Chen Yue Wang Changjun

Renmin University China People‘s Congress

Pan Jiahua Chen Ying

China Academy for Society China Academy for Society

Zhai Jinliang Niu Dong Li Chongyin Chen Ying Li Yuer

China Academy for Science China Academy for Science China Academy for Science China Academy for Science China Academy for Science

Zhao Jun

Ministry of Foreign Affairs

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List for Experts and Officials with whom I interviewed Li Jingguang Guo Dongmei Jiang Wei Zhang Kunmin Cai Lijie Xia Guang Mu Guangfeng

State Environmental Protection Administration State Environmental Protection Administration State Environmental Protection Administration State Environmental Protection Administration State Environmental Protection Administration State Environmental Protection Administration

Gao Guangsheng Zhao Ping Li Liyan Ma Aimin Sun Cuihua Hu Xiulian

Committee of Development and Planning Committee of Development and Planning Committee of Development and Planning Committee of Development and Planning Committee of Development and Planning Energy Science Institute of Committee of Development and Planning Energy Science Institute of Committee of Development and Planning

Guo Yuan

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State Oceanic Administration

Huang Jing Zhou Hailin Lu Xuedu Wang Weizhong Zhang Jiayuan

Ministry of Science and Technology Ministry of Science and Technology Ministry of Science and Technology Ministry of Science and Technology Ministry of Science and Technology

Zhao Chunjiang Guo Liping Lin Erda Xu Yinlong

Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture Ministry of Agriculture

Ding Yihui Xu Ying Dai Xiaosu Luo Yong Feng Liping

China Meteorological Administration China Meteorological Administration China Meteorological Administration China Meteorological Administration China Meteorological Administration

Gao Peijun Wu Jianguo

Ministry of Construction Ministry of Construction

Liu Shirong Chen Enjun

State Forestry Administration State Forestry Administration

Wang Yanxia

State Economic and Trade Committee

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220

Yu Hongyuan Xue Mouhong Liu Deshun Shi Zulin Wang Yongqing Hao Jiming Duan Maosheng Chen Wenying He Jiankun Jiang Zhanpeng Lu Yingyun Pan Jiahua Wu Shunling

China Academy for Society Ministry of Water Resources

Zhang Maoming Zhao Jun

Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Wang Wenyuan Wang Yi Chen Banqin Fu Bojie

China Academy for Science China Academy for Science China Academy for Science China Academy for Science

Qin Yaqing Zhang Baijia

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Tsinghua University Tsinghua University Tsinghua University Tsinghua University Tsinghua University Tsinghua University Tsinghua University Tsinghua University Tsinghua University Tsinghua University

Zhou Ji Shi Yinghong

Beijing Foreign Affairs College Senior researcher in CCP‘s foreign policy Renmin University of China Renmin University of China

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APPENDIX III The Largest Carbon Emitters in the world

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U.S. China Russia Japan India Germany

2000 CO2 (MtC) 1,486 848 391 309 290 225

2000 Per Capita Carbon (tC) 5.7 0.6 2.7 2.4 0.3 2.8

626

2000 Per Capita GDP, PPP $ 35,830 3,535 7,700 24,850 2,135 23,315

626

http://www.geol.umd.edu/_~juliof_EnergyPolicyWebsite/ EnergyConf_/PPT_21-C_Logan.ppt also based on : The Effects on Developing Countries of the Kyoto Protocol and Carbon Dioxide Emissions Trading http://www.jstor.org/cgi-bin/jstor/printpage/00208833/di012094/01p0059p/0-150.pdf?user [email protected]/018dd553400050d1bd82&backcontext=table-ofcontents&config=jstor&dowhat=Acrobat&0-150.pdf

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APPENDIX IV Chinese Energy Consumption and GHG Emissions Energy Consumption (MTCE) 987 1542 2214 3051

1990 2000 2010 2020

GHG Emissions(MTC) 647 1011 1380 1772

627

GHG Emissions per head (TC) 0.566 0.778 0.967 1.18

Estimated Increases in China’s Commercial Energy Use and GHG Emissions Compared to Global Totals (without special commitment to GHG reduction Business as Usual Scenario)628

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Year

Total Energy Use Mtce

Per Capita Energy kgce China

World

China

CO2 Emissions GtC

China

World

1990

950

11600

835

2190

0.6

2020

3300

19700

2280

2520

2.0

Per Capita kgC World

China

World

6.0

523

1130

10.9

1410

1400

627

China‘s State Council(ed.):China‘s Agenda 21-White paper on China‘s population, environment, and development in the 21st century,(Beijing: Environmental Science Press, 1994). Administration Center: The Tendency of Global Warming and Chinese Responsibility, 1998, pp 6. 628 The World Bank. China: Issues and Options in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Control, Subreport No.2, Energy Demand in China, Overview Report. Washington DC, 1995. Resource: http://www.who.int/environmental_ information/Information_resources/worddocs/Greenhousegas/

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GLOSSARY Annex I Countries: Group of Countries specified in the annex to the UNFCCC. Essentially composed of industrialized countries, plus most of Eastern Europe and the countries of the former Soviet Union. Berlin Mandate. A ruling negotiated at the first Conference of the Parties (COP 1), which took place in March, 1995, concluding that the present commitments under the Framework Convention on Climate Change are not adequate. Under the Framework Convention, developed countries pledged to take measures aimed at returning their GHG emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. The Berlin Mandate establishes a process that would enable the Parties to take appropriate action for the period beyond 2000, including a strengthening of developed country commitments, through the adoption of a protocol or other legal instruments. (EPA) China National Coordination Committee for Climate. The China National Coordination Committee for Climate is responsible for any policy issues related to global struggles against global warming (i.e., formulating policies, programs, and coordinating scientific research). The Committee, chaired, by the Development Planning Commission, includes 14 participating departments: Ministry of Development and Planning, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Science and Technology, State Economic and Trade Commission, China Meteorological Administration, Ministry of Finance, State Environmental Protection Administration, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Communications, Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Construction, State Forestry Administration, State Oceanic Administration and Chinese Academy of Sciences. Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM). Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol provides for the CDM whereby developed countries are able to invest in emissions reducing projects in developing countries to obtain credit to assist in meeting their assigned amounts. The details of the CDM have yet to be negotiated at the international level. However, it does allow countries to use credits obtained from the year 2000 for the purposes of meeting their assigned amounts. Participation is voluntary and open to private and public entities alike on a Party-approved basis. (Australia) Climate Change (also referred to as 'global climate change'). The term 'climate change' is sometimes used to refer to all forms of climatic inconsistency, but because the Earth's climate is never static, the term is more properly used to imply a significant change from one climatic condition to another. In some cases, 'climate change' has been used

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Glossary

synonymously with the term, 'global warming'; scientists however, tend to use the term in the wider sense to also include natural changes in climate. Conference of the Parties (COP). The COP is the collection of nations which have ratified the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), currently over 150 strong, and about 50 Observer States. The primary role of the COP is to keep the implementation of the Convention under review and to take the decisions necessary for the effective implementation of the Convention. The first COP (COP 1) took place in Berlin from March 28th to April 7th, 1995, and was attended by over 1000 observers and 2000 media representatives. (EPA) Global Environmental Facility (GEF): The Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) decided at its first session, ―that the restructured GEF shall continue, on an interim basis, to be the international entity entrusted with the operation of the financial mechanism referred to in Article 11 of the Convention;‖ and also decided, ―in accordance with Article 11.4 of the Convention, to review the financial mechanism within four years and take appropriate measures, including a determination of the definitive status of the GEF in the context of the Convention.‖ The Global Environment Facility (GEF) in the context of the UNFCCC is a financial support regime to encourage developing countries to contribute to the prevention of global warming, the most pressing global environmental problem. Global Warming. An increase in the near surface temperature of the Earth. Global warming has occurred in the distant past as the result of natural influences, but the term is most often used to refer to the warming predicted to occur as a result of increased emissions of greenhouse gases. Scientists generally agree that the Earth's surface has warmed by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past 140 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are causing an increase in the Earth's surface temperature and that increased concentrations of sulfate aerosols have led to relative cooling in some regions, generally over and downwind of heavily industrialized areas. Greenhouse Gas (GHG). Any gas that absorbs infra-red radiation in the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases include water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), halogenated fluorocarbons (HCFCs) , ozone (O3), perfluorinated carbons (PFCs), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Group 77 plus China”. ―The Group 77‖ was established in 1964 in Geneva by 77 developing countries, with the goal of promoting developing countries‘ collective economic interests and negotiation capacity in the UN system. Its membership has since grown to more than 130 countries. China is not a member of Group 77 but has been involved in its activities especially since the formation of the ―Group 77 plus China‖ coalition in 1991 on environment and development issues. In the negotiation on the UNFCCC, the ―Group 77 plus China‖ is an important negotiation group. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC was established jointly by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization in 1988. The purpose of the IPCC is to assess information in the scientific and technical literature related to all significant components of the issue of climate change. Joint Implementation (JI), an international cooperation mechanism to reduce GHG., which mean industrial countries should try to help developing countries to reduce GHG emission by technology transfer or investment. Article 6 of the Kyoto Protocol permits

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Joint Implementation whereby developed countries are able to invest in projects in other developed countries to acquire credits to assists in meeting their assigned amounts. Countries are only able to use credits generated in the commitment period of 2008 to 2012. Participation is voluntary, and open to private and public entities alike if approved by the Party to the Protocol. Kyoto Protocol. The third session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change took place in Kyoto, Japan in December 1997, resulting in the Kyoto Protocol. This working agreement of the signatories commits developed countries to reduce their collective emissions of six greenhouse gases by at least 5 per cent of 1990 levels by 2012. The Kyoto agreement will only become legally binding when at least 55 countries – including developed countries accounting for at least 55 per cent of developed countries emissions – have ratified the agreement. SBI. Subsidiary Body for Implementation. (IPCC) SBST. Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technological Advice established under the UNFCC. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UNFCCC arose from increasing international concern about the implications of climate change and recognition that no one country can solve this global environmental problem alone. The ultimate objective of the UNFCCC is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous human-induced interference with the climate system.

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Berlin Mandate of UNFCCC1995: http://www.unfccc.de/resource/docs/cop1/07a01.pdf Buenos Aires Plan of Action of UNFCCC 1999: http://www.unfccc.de/resource/docs/ cop4/16a01.pdf Center for International Climate and Environmental Research: http://www.cicero.uio.no/index _e.asp Climate Network Europe: http://www.climnet.org/ Geneva Ministerial Declaration of UNFCCC1996: http://www.unfccc.de/resource/docs/cop2/ 15a01.pdf Greenpeace: http://www.greenpeace.org/ International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD): http://www.iisd.ca International Institute for Sustainable Development 2001: http://iisd.ca/climatechange.htm Kyoto Protocol of the UNFCCC: http://www.unfccc.de/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.html OECD: http://www1.oecd.org/env/cc/index.htm Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research: http://www.pik-potsdam.de Seventh Session of the Conference of the Parties UNFCCC2001: http://www.unfccc.de/cop7/ documents/accords_draft.pdf United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: http://www.unfccc.de/index.html World Climate Research Programme: http://www.wmo.ch/web/wcrp/wcrp-home.html World Resources Institute: http://www.wri.org/climate/

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INDEX

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A access, 48, 63, 79, 80, 104, 129, 137 accommodation, 92, 93 achievement, 131, 135, 210 acid, 63, 66 adaptability, 50, 70 adaptation, 46, 50, 59, 79, 83, 98, 145, 209 adjustment, 12 administration, 7, 31, 58, 208 advocacy, 76 aerosols, 226 Africa, 64, 131, 132 African continent, 138 age, 22, 238 agent, x, 101 agrarian, 63, 129 agriculture, 10, 51, 52, 71, 72, 99, 104, 123, 127 air pollution, 64, 66 air quality, 65 alternative, 17, 22, 73, 111, 208 alternatives, 12, 27, 33 analytical framework, 11, 13, 130 anatomy, 21, 240 animals, 53 APEC, 59, 74 aquifers, 51 arbitration, 18 Argentina, 42, 45, 75 argument, ix, 7, 8, 29, 30, 90, 96, 109, 111, 117, 139 Asia, 3, 6, 18, 30, 31, 47, 49, 50, 51, 52, 56, 60, 69, 70, 71, 81, 82, 85, 92, 95, 100, 124, 130, 131, 139, 142, 143, 145, 209, 230, 233, 234 Asian countries, 49, 209 assessment, 50, 58, 101, 117, 130 assumptions, 15, 17, 22, 28 atmosphere, 1, 2, 42, 43, 50, 69, 75, 97, 145, 226, 227

attention, ix, 1, 24, 25, 28, 30, 38, 41, 47, 54, 63, 64, 89, 103, 129, 132, 217 attitudes, 21, 69, 106 Australia, 4, 103, 225, 237 Austria, 238 authoritarianism, 2, 10, 28, 33, 124 authority, 27, 31, 32, 33, 42, 88, 111, 115, 124, 148 autonomy, 18, 93 availability, 50, 70, 71, 98, 208 aversion, 1, 16, 38, 133, 134 awareness, 43, 73

B backwardness, 46, 49, 55, 67, 78 bargaining, 9, 12, 15, 18, 19, 22, 27, 30, 32, 34, 57, 89, 90, 93, 102, 110, 112, 147, 148, 236 basic needs, 48, 78, 137, 211 behavior, x, 6, 15, 16, 20, 22, 23, 24, 28, 35, 76, 96, 108, 109, 110, 113, 141 Beijing, x, 48, 50, 51, 52, 54, 57, 60, 70, 71, 77, 82, 84, 96, 99, 100, 107, 126, 143, 144, 147, 208, 220, 223 beliefs, 13, 16, 17, 23 benefits, 7, 23, 53, 54, 61, 77, 82, 84, 86, 88, 93, 101, 103, 144 bilateral relations, 65 binding, 33, 42, 43, 44, 45, 75, 114, 124, 138, 227 biodiversity, 50, 63, 70, 132 biofuels, 73 biological systems, 70 biomass, 87 boilers, 87, 90 Brazil, 13, 38, 132, 137, 138, 242 breakdown, 137 bureaucracy, 6, 22, 27, 28, 31, 32, 55, 86, 89, 90, 91, 100, 102, 104, 105, 106, 111, 115, 122, 123, 148 burning, 2, 3, 4, 6, 38, 39, 47

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246

Index

Bush Administration, 58, 66, 67, 69, 74, 100, 138, 208, 209, 211

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C California, 18, 21, 22, 29, 32, 59, 81, 90, 93, 95, 105, 108, 110, 111, 113, 117, 124, 126, 138, 142, 148, 232, 236, 237, 238, 241 Canada, 5, 75 capacity, 83, 87, 101, 138 capacity building, 35, 74, 83, 85, 87, 92, 93, 98, 99, 111, 115, 116, 117, 142, 148, 211 capital intensive, 210 carbon, 2, 3, 5, 6, 10, 38, 43, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 52, 67, 69, 72, 73, 74, 76, 78, 79, 80, 99, 101, 114, 137, 138, 147, 208, 209, 221, 226, 235, 239, 243 carbon dioxide, 2, 3, 5, 6, 38, 43, 45, 47, 52, 73, 74, 79, 114, 137, 147, 208, 226 case study, 7, 8, 9, 11, 12 catalyst(s), 21, 22 catastrophes, 142 causal beliefs, 23 causal relationship, 33 central planning, 31 certainty, 25, 98 channels, 18, 28, 30, 121 circulation, 37, 97 civil society, 132 classes, 106 classification, 7 clean energy, 49, 53, 60, 66, 69, 76, 77, 85, 144, 147, 208, 211 climatic change, iv, 37, 97 Clinton Administration, 66 clustering, 23 clusters, 22 CO2, 5, 37, 39, 43, 79, 97, 112, 125, 126, 221, 223, 226, 234, 242 coal, 3, 5, 47, 52, 55, 60, 66, 69, 73, 90, 130, 144, 147, 211 Cold War, 63, 129, 137, 237, 243 collaboration, 1, 65, 74 Columbia University, 1, 16, 17, 21, 24, 25, 72, 84, 91, 100, 106, 109, 111, 139, 230, 233, 234, 235, 240, 241 combustion, 208 communication, 18, 19, 21, 31, 32, 57, 89, 99, 102, 104, 105, 116, 121, 141, 142 Communist countries, 131 Communist Party, 28, 33, 92, 111, 124 community, 25, 26, 35, 49, 57, 59, 61, 67, 84, 100, 108, 111, 114, 117, 126, 139, 144, 149, 213, 215, 232

compensation, 65 competition, 27, 28, 129 competitive advantage, 48 competitor, 209 complexity, 27, 115, 216 compliance, 45, 46, 67, 98, 138 components, 118, 131, 226 concrete, 2, 5, 7, 8, 10, 38, 57, 58, 59, 61, 67, 78, 100, 110, 125, 126, 130, 138, 139, 144, 208, 210 confidence, 127 configuration, 111, 114 conflict, 16, 24, 32, 48, 88, 139, 141 congress, 64, 114, 218 consensus, 9, 12, 15, 16, 18, 19, 31, 32, 34, 40, 42, 43, 57, 75, 77, 89, 90, 92, 93, 99, 100, 102, 110, 111, 120, 121, 122, 123, 124, 125, 135, 141, 142, 147, 148, 208, 210 conservation, 72, 144 constraints, 15, 20, 31, 87, 239 construction, 23 consumption, 2, 4, 7, 10, 49, 52, 53, 67, 72, 73, 78, 126, 139, 147, 207, 208, 209, 211 contamination, 131 control, 2, 5, 9, 22, 27, 28, 32, 33, 55, 62, 85, 89, 93, 96, 100, 103, 115, 240 convergence, 17 cooling, 226 coral reefs, 50, 70 corporations, 48, 133 correlation, 13, 19, 32, 51, 71, 141 corruption, 54 costs, 17, 22, 23, 44, 56, 80, 84, 88, 101, 126, 127, 139, 147 counterbalance, 5, 67, 78, 138 credibility, 212 credit, 208, 225 criticism, 110 crop production, 51 crops, 51 culture, 14, 21, 26, 106, 109, 146 cycles, 2 cyclones, 37, 50, 70, 97

D danger, 47, 74, 131 database, 103, 105 death, 50, 70 death rate, 51, 71 decentralization, 21 decision making, 18, 19, 27, 31, 32, 90, 93, 95, 110, 111, 124, 148, 236, 241

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Index decisions, 15, 18, 27, 30, 31, 32, 44, 46, 65, 92, 111, 115, 121, 123, 132, 142, 148, 210, 226 definition, 16, 18, 89, 131, 135 deforestation, 2, 45 degradation, 2, 10, 16, 47, 53, 64, 69, 131, 209 demand, 5, 50, 55, 66, 70, 115, 133, 135, 209 dengue fever, 50, 70 dependent variable, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 33, 34, 140, 149 desire, 55, 60, 138 developed countries, 2, 5, 39, 46, 48, 49, 51, 56, 57, 59, 60, 61, 64, 66, 76, 77, 79, 80, 82, 114, 126, 131, 133, 135, 137, 139, 142, 144, 145, 146, 210, 211, 225, 227 developed nations, 213 developing countries, 3, 5, 7, 20, 39, 40, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 48, 49, 50, 52, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 66, 70, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 82, 83, 98, 99, 100, 105, 114, 130, 133, 134, 135, 137, 138, 139, 142, 144, 145, 146, 209, 210, 211, 212, 225, 226 developing nations, 65, 213 development assistance, 67, 81, 209 development policy, 80 diffusion, 83, 87, 134 direct observation, 10 disaster, 38, 44, 55, 97, 131, 211 discourse, 41, 132, 137 disseminate, 84 distillation, 87 distress, 142 distribution, 11, 14, 15, 19, 20, 24, 26, 81, 138, 142, 149 divergence, 18, 46, 67, 78, 114, 122 diversity, 92 division, 49, 88, 110 domestic economy, 7, 139 domestic factors, 23 domestic laws, 2, 7, 139 domestic policy, 29, 32, 113, 142 domestic resources, 53 donors, 73, 80, 136 draft, 40, 50, 70, 118, 244 drought, 71

E earth, 1, 43, 44, 65, 66, 136, 234, 242 East Asia, 3, 6, 47, 50, 51, 60, 71, 82, 85, 92, 95, 130, 139, 142, 143, 233, 234 Eastern Europe, 71, 225 economic activity, 20, 37, 52, 97 economic cooperation, 22, 135 economic development, 2, 6, 10, 21, 31, 46, 47, 53, 54, 55, 58, 59, 60, 62, 64, 65, 67, 78, 80, 81, 82,

247

88, 100, 114, 120, 122, 126, 132, 134, 142, 144, 210, 211 economic growth, 2, 3, 5, 48, 49, 52, 54, 55, 57, 60, 64, 67, 76, 133, 137, 144, 146 economic incentives, 55 economic institutions, 29 economic integration, 76 economic policy, 125 economic reform, 111, 124, 148, 241 economic stability, 60, 143, 211 economics, 17, 57, 80 education, 99, 101, 109, 121 elaboration, 41 electricity, 48, 79, 137 emission, 47, 49, 67, 73, 76, 77, 78, 79, 90, 99, 101, 114, 126, 137, 143, 147, 211, 226 emitters, 3, 60, 71, 80, 135, 143, 210 energy, 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 10, 30, 31, 37, 47, 48, 49, 50, 52, 53, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 65, 66, 67, 69, 70, 72, 74, 76, 77, 78, 79, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 96, 97, 99, 101, 104, 108, 120, 123, 125, 126, 129, 137, 143, 147, 207, 208, 209, 210, 211, 212, 214, 239, 243 energy consumption, 4, 10, 49, 52, 53, 67, 72, 78, 126, 147, 207, 208, 209, 211 energy efficiency, 2, 47, 55, 61, 72, 77, 84, 208, 209 energy supply, 53, 79, 137, 207, 209 enthusiasm, 49 entrepreneurs, 87 environment, ix, x, 6, 14, 15, 23, 25, 41, 44, 49, 53, 54, 58, 63, 64, 65, 66, 69, 73, 75, 81, 84, 87, 99, 106, 107, 115, 125, 126, 129, 131, 132, 134, 136, 138, 139, 146, 147, 149, 207, 208, 209, 210, 211, 212, 214, 223, 226 environmental conditions, 134 environmental degradation, 2, 10, 16, 47, 53, 63, 64, 69, 209 environmental factors, 24 environmental impact, 52, 53 environmental issues, 41, 53, 61, 63, 64, 65, 66, 117, 131, 132, 133, 138, 139, 142, 143, 147, 149 environmental movement, 132 environmental policy, x, 33, 64, 81, 84, 89, 96, 113, 143, 149 environmental protection, 6, 10, 53, 55, 63, 64, 65, 82, 88, 116, 126, 129, 132, 133, 134, 136, 207, 208, 210, 234, 239 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 61, 101, 120, 225, 226 environmental regulations, 54 environmental standards, 46, 67 environmental sustainability, 131 environmental threats, 47, 63, 207

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Index

equilibrium, 23 equity, 39, 80, 98, 115, 131, 135, 137, 138 erosion, 71 Europe, 37, 48, 49, 59, 70, 71, 73, 74, 76, 79, 97, 225, 241, 244 European Commission, 72 European Community, 17, 72, 233, 242 European Union (EU), 4, 45, 49, 53, 69, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 103, 136, 138, 209, 212 evidence, 30, 43, 49, 53, 55, 69, 70, 130, 149, 209 evolution, 21, 25 expertise, 217 exploitation, 131 exports, 49, 80 exposure, 210 external environment, 24 external relations, ix extinction, 131

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F failure, 32, 45, 76, 131 fairness, 61, 138 famine, 131 fear, 24, 139 fears, 60 feedback, 25, 34, 91, 141 fever, 50, 70 finance, 79, 83, 134 financial crises, 16 financial resources, 39, 78, 98, 136, 208 financial support, 6, 20, 83, 84, 85, 89, 91, 92, 93, 121, 133, 134, 226 financing, 83, 87, 134 fires, 50, 70 fisheries, 50, 70 fixation, 55 flexibility, 33, 58, 76, 98, 100 flood, 38, 71 flooding, 2, 37, 47, 51, 70, 71, 97 focusing, 6, 41, 79, 103, 145 food, 50, 70 foreign affairs, 29, 125, 240 foreign aid, 55, 81 foreign experts, 105 foreign investment, 82 foreign policymaking, 21 forest fires, 50, 70 forests, 46, 51, 71 fossil, 2, 3, 4, 6, 38, 39, 44, 47, 49, 52, 67, 72, 80, 208 fossil fuels, 3, 4, 39, 47, 80 France, 71, 73

fuel, 2, 4, 6, 38, 45, 49, 52, 60, 67, 72, 78, 137, 143, 207, 208, 211 functional approach, 23 functionalism, 26 funding, 32, 56, 77, 83, 84, 85, 134, 209 funds, 2, 14, 26, 35, 46, 53, 56, 62, 76, 77, 79, 82, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 93, 111, 141, 145, 209

G game theory, 23 gases, iv, 1, 2, 3, 7, 39, 43, 44, 45, 61, 66, 69, 78, 83, 97, 98, 99, 101, 115, 134, 135, 139, 210, 211, 214, 226, 227 gasoline, 207, 208 GDP, 49, 53, 67, 71, 79, 80, 126, 137, 143, 209, 211, 221 generation, 3, 87 Geneva, 44, 50, 70, 226, 244 Germany, 42, 44, 72, 73, 74, 75, 221 glaciers, 51, 71 global climate change, 1, 6, 38, 43, 53, 54, 60, 66, 87, 114, 117, 120, 133, 143, 147, 210, 225, 232 global economy, 16, 145 global leaders, 73, 137, 138 global resources, 132 globalization, 21, 30, 49, 76, 80, 81, 106, 129 GNP, 52, 126 goals, 18, 20, 27, 53, 55, 81, 82, 88, 209, 210 goods and services, 49, 80 governance, 18, 33, 73, 124, 133, 137 government, 3, 4, 13, 18, 19, 21, 22, 24, 28, 29, 31, 38, 39, 41, 42, 43, 44, 52, 53, 54, 55, 58, 61, 65, 66, 72, 78, 81, 83, 84, 88, 89, 111, 115, 122, 132, 136, 138, 144, 145, 146, 149, 209, 210, 215, 217, 231 grants, 49, 83, 84, 88, 93, 135 gravity, 215 greenhouse, 1, 2, 3, 37, 39, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 57, 58, 61, 64, 66, 67, 69, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 83, 97, 98, 99, 101, 114, 115, 134, 135, 138, 139, 145, 210, 211, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217, 226, 227 greenhouse gas, 1, 2, 3, 37, 39, 43, 44, 45, 46, 57, 58, 61, 64, 66, 67, 69, 72, 73, 74, 76, 77, 83, 97, 98, 99, 101, 114, 115, 134, 135, 138, 139, 210, 211, 213, 214, 215, 216, 226, 227 greenhouse gases, 1, 3, 39, 43, 44, 45, 61, 66, 69, 77, 83, 97, 98, 99, 101, 115, 134, 135, 139, 210, 211, 214, 226, 227 groups, 4, 5, 6, 27, 29, 31, 90, 101, 102, 103, 117, 119, 120, 132, 133, 135, 211

Global Warming and China's Environmental Diplomacy, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2008. ProQuest Ebook Central,

Index growth, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 39, 46, 48, 49, 52, 53, 55, 57, 58, 60, 63, 64, 65, 67, 69, 76, 78, 80, 95, 126, 131, 133, 137, 143, 145, 146, 209, 210, 211, 212 growth rate, 53, 209 guidance, x guidelines, 42, 75 guiding principles, 64

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H hamstring, 110 harm, 1, 3, 19, 61, 64, 122, 136, 139, 145, 210 harmonization, 54 harmony, 19, 64, 210 Harvard, 21, 50, 64, 70, 235, 242 hazardous wastes, 138 head, 57, 59, 60, 100, 106, 114, 123, 223 health, 37, 50, 70, 97, 142 heat, 1, 44, 50, 70, 71, 87 heat stroke, 50, 70 height, 116 heterogeneity, 13 hip, 73, 137, 138 homogeneity, 13 Hong Kong, ix, x, 18, 28, 30, 31, 81, 130, 230 hostility, 17, 139 house, 52, 55, 83, 209 human activity, 1, 104 human resources, 27, 83, 115, 134 human rights, 132 human security, 69, 208 humanity, 10 humiliation, 60 hypothesis, 33

I identification, 25 identity, 17, 106, 109 ideology, 21, 31, 90 images, 20 IMF, 82 impact assessment, 101, 117 imperialism, 57, 99 implementation, 3, 19, 25, 33, 39, 41, 42, 44, 45, 57, 65, 74, 75, 78, 98, 100, 101, 109, 113, 115, 116, 117, 121, 124, 136, 141, 226 imports, 208 incentives, 14, 15, 19, 22, 30, 31, 55, 81, 109, 141, 142, 210 incidence, 37, 50, 70, 97 income, 16, 57, 79, 126, 137, 144, 211

249

independence, 16, 26, 207 independent variable, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 20, 22, 33, 34, 140, 148, 149 indexing, 72 India, 45, 49, 58, 78, 79, 137, 138, 145, 211, 221 indicators, 9, 12, 13, 19, 34 Indonesia, 75 industrial emissions, 46 industrial location, 73 industrial revolution, 48, 79 industrialized countries, 39, 44, 45, 49, 53, 57, 61, 138, 209, 225 industry, 2, 7, 30, 41, 49, 58, 60, 69, 71, 72, 79, 86, 87, 88, 89, 93, 98, 99, 104, 123, 132, 137, 144, 208, 211, 214 inertia, 207 information exchange, 18, 215 infrared light, 1 innovation, 59 insects, 51 insecurity, 131 instability, 131 institution building, 142 institutions, 2, 9, 11, 12, 14, 15, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 26, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 54, 58, 60, 61, 64, 87, 99, 109, 113, 114, 117, 120, 132, 133, 134, 135, 139, 140, 141 instruction, 31 instruments, 134, 139, 209, 225 integration, 76, 96, 141, 146 integrity, 127 intellectual property rights, 49, 65 intensity, 37, 53, 76, 97 intentions, 78, 126, 145 interaction, 1, 3, 7, 11, 17, 22, 25, 34, 38, 74, 84, 109, 136, 148 interactions, 93, 110, 131 interdependence, 18, 30, 95, 122, 136 interest groups, 211 interference, 39, 42, 75, 143, 227 international division of labor, 49 international law, 101, 139 international relations, ix, 7, 16, 17, 62, 63, 88, 136 international trade, 46, 48, 135 internationalism, 65, 138 internationalization, 57, 113 interpretation, 102 intervention, 19, 60, 61, 64, 67, 144 interview, 11, 12, 14, 60, 84, 87, 91, 93, 144, 209 investment, 61, 84, 144, 217, 226 Italy, 71, 73, 231

Global Warming and China's Environmental Diplomacy, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2008. ProQuest Ebook Central,

250

Index

J Japan, 4, 5, 6, 44, 45, 47, 49, 53, 56, 103, 209, 221, 227 justice, 46, 98, 115

K Kyoto agreement, 227

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L labor, 110 land, 50, 51, 65, 70, 97 land use, 65 language, 9 Latin America, 78 Latin American countries, 78 laws, 2, 7, 31, 53, 54, 60, 89, 131, 135, 139, 143, 210 lead, 1, 10, 27, 34, 39, 44, 45, 47, 53, 63, 69, 74, 78, 87, 96, 98, 117, 136, 138, 141, 209 leadership, 5, 18, 21, 29, 31, 32, 61, 69, 73, 90, 134, 137, 138, 146, 207, 209, 211, 212 learning, 14, 22, 25, 26, 29, 102, 103, 104, 105, 108, 146 learning process, 25, 29, 102, 104, 105, 108, 146 legislation, 42 lending, 132 liberalism, 14, 17 lifestyle, 53 likelihood, 17, 139 linkage, 115 links, 17, 56, 79 literature, 1, 10, 11, 14, 15, 20, 25, 28, 29, 40, 42, 226 livestock, 51 living environment, 58 living standard, 48, 79, 126, 137, 144, 211 loans, 49, 61, 65, 77, 82, 83, 84, 93, 135, 141, 144, 217 local authorities, 54 local government, 231 London, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 13, 21, 24, 29, 53, 56, 72, 105, 208, 230, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 236, 237, 239, 241, 242, 243 Los Angeles, 236 Luxemburg, 238

M machinery, 18

Mainland China, 11, 21 maintenance, 1, 242 malaria, 50, 70 management, 7, 18, 29, 31, 43, 46, 55, 81, 82, 89, 90, 92, 105, 111, 123, 134, 237 market, 23, 33, 56, 65, 69, 73, 79, 135 market prices, 65 marketing, 87 Maryland, 243 matrix, 31 Maya, 70 meanings, 18, 91, 96, 101, 110, 147, 148 measures, 9, 39, 43, 46, 54, 56, 72, 79, 83, 84, 98, 105, 145, 146, 147, 209, 210, 225, 226 media, 41, 132, 138, 226 Mediterranean, 233, 234 melt, 51 melting, 37 membership, 38, 226 men, 145 methane, 2, 43, 45, 51, 147, 226 middle class, 53 Middle East, 131 migration, 131 military, 24, 64 millennium, 55, 65, 81, 231, 236 missions, 5, 37, 39, 43, 44, 45, 46, 49, 58, 64, 66, 67, 72, 73, 74, 79, 80, 92, 97, 112, 114, 118, 125, 138, 147, 208, 209, 242 MIT, 24, 133, 208, 234, 236, 237, 243 modeling, 25 models, 28, 37, 76, 87, 88 modern society, 63, 129 modernization, 10, 60, 78, 137, 143, 211 moisture, 71 money, 54, 145 monopoly, 31, 106, 111, 148 morality, 139 mortality, 50, 70 motivation, 88 movement, 132 multilateralism, 138, 240 multinational corporations, 48, 133

N nation, 4, 5, 21, 27, 82, 108, 133, 213 national action, 54 national interests, 4, 10, 12, 35, 65, 82, 96, 101, 108, 119, 131, 137, 141, 148 national security, 4, 57, 64, 106, 109, 131, 208 natural disasters, 38, 52 natural environment, 53, 131

Global Warming and China's Environmental Diplomacy, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2008. ProQuest Ebook Central,

Index natural gas, 47, 60, 144, 211 natural resource management, 132 natural resources, 53, 60, 63, 65, 129, 131, 137, 143 neglect, 29 negotiating, 11, 18, 27, 33, 37, 44, 61, 74, 114, 233 negotiation, 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 25, 38, 39, 40, 41, 45, 46, 66, 69, 71, 73, 75, 79, 95, 96, 97, 99, 100, 101, 102, 105, 107, 114, 115, 118, 119, 120, 121, 122, 130, 131, 139, 141, 143, 144, 146, 208, 216, 217, 226 neo-liberalism, 17 Netherlands, 42 New York, 1, 5, 6, 7, 10, 13, 16, 17, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 29, 32, 39, 46, 47, 50, 52, 56, 57, 72, 81, 84, 88, 95, 96, 100, 105, 107, 109, 111, 113, 124, 137, 229, 230, 231, 232, 233, 234, 235, 237, 238, 239, 240, 241, 242 newspapers, 13 NGOs, ix, 13, 35 Nigeria, 138 nitrous oxide, 43, 45, 226 no voice, 15, 58, 105, 112, 124, 148 noise, 53 North Africa, 131 Northeast Asia, 142, 233, 237 Northern China, 51

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O objectivity, 46 obligation, 38, 58, 78 observable behavior, 16 oceans, 3, 37, 70, 136 oil, 3, 47, 60, 144, 207, 208, 209, 211 oils, 51 OPEC, 79, 145 organization, ix, 7, 21, 23, 27, 28, 31, 33, 76, 90, 124, 132, 233, 234, 240 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 13, 18, 126, 232, 244 organizations, 21, 22, 27, 30, 33, 88, 110, 115, 132, 133, 216, 217 orientation, 25, 81 oversight, 18 oxygen, 87 ozone, 29, 63, 64, 94, 100, 111, 116, 131, 135, 136, 138, 226

P Pacific, 3, 6, 49, 50, 52, 69, 70, 145, 146, 209, 231 peacekeeping, 131

251

peer review, 42 penalties, 98 per capita income, 79, 126, 137, 144, 211 perception, 58, 64, 106, 109, 141 perceptions, 22, 81, 88, 106 permafrost, 71 photovoltaic, 87 planning, 31, 62, 104, 123, 125 plants, 53 pluralism, 32, 88 polarization, 16 policy choice, 81 policy initiative, 31, 209 policy makers, 23, 25, 30, 41, 107, 109 policy making, x, 1, 2, 6, 9, 11, 15, 16, 18, 19, 20, 22, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 31, 34, 88, 89, 90, 100, 106, 113, 124, 141, 147, 148, 149 policymakers, 5, 25, 30, 50, 62, 99, 105, 132, 133, 149 political instability, 131 political leaders, 29, 32, 41, 88, 132 political legitimacy, 129 politics, ix, 1, 4, 6, 7, 11, 14, 17, 18, 20, 21, 22, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 31, 32, 41, 61, 84, 88, 90, 93, 95, 100, 103, 106, 107, 109, 110, 111, 113, 118, 124, 132, 148, 149, 236, 241 pollutants, 2, 135, 145 polluters, 57, 75 pollution, 2, 53, 62, 63, 64, 66, 67, 73, 80, 131, 132, 134, 138, 145, 146 poor, 48, 61, 79, 129, 132, 137, 138, 145 population, 6, 47, 54, 67, 82, 84, 95, 99, 107, 126, 131, 135, 142, 147, 208, 223 population growth, 95, 131 portfolio, 84 poverty, 39, 48, 50, 52, 55, 60, 78, 135, 136, 137, 143, 145, 211 poverty eradication, 39, 60, 78, 136, 143, 211 power, 7, 16, 20, 22, 24, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 55, 66, 67, 69, 74, 81, 87, 89, 105, 109, 110, 114, 133, 135, 136, 237 power relations, 16 preference, 13, 23, 88, 92, 136 preferential treatment, 46 president, 60, 66, 74 President Bush, 76 President Clinton, 66 pressure, 59, 85, 109, 110, 125 prevention, 83, 97, 132, 133, 134, 226 prices, 65 primacy, 21, 59, 142 prior knowledge, 25 private sector, 83

Global Warming and China's Environmental Diplomacy, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2008. ProQuest Ebook Central,

252

Index

probability, 17, 139 problem-solving, 96 production, 10, 51, 66, 73, 87, 123, 127 productivity, 50, 70, 71 professionalization, 21 professions, 4 program, 27, 54, 84, 85, 90, 115, 134 proliferation, 16, 117 promote, 4, 10, 42, 49, 54, 55, 56, 59, 61, 65, 66, 76, 77, 81, 88, 89, 98, 107, 116, 127, 134, 138, 146 property rights, 23, 49, 65 prosperity, 138 protocol, 2, 4, 5, 7, 9, 12, 14, 19, 33, 35, 40, 41, 42, 44, 57, 64, 69, 72, 73, 74, 76, 96, 117, 225 public administration, 7 public education, 121 Public Management Service, 18 public opinion, 25 public policy, 17, 81 purchasing power, 135

Q quality of life, 134 questionnaires, 5, 9, 12, 14, 86, 104, 118, 122, 125, 140

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R race, 63, 65, 129 radiation, 226 rain, 63, 66 rainfall, 37, 50, 51, 70, 97 range, 9, 15, 37, 64, 66, 69, 80, 97 rationality, 28 realism, 14, 17, 24, 26 reciprocity, 32 recognition, 63, 129, 132, 227 recovery, 87 recycling, 53, 210 reduction, 43, 58, 69, 73, 74, 75, 77, 78, 90, 114, 139, 215, 216, 223 reforms, 30, 149 regulations, 44, 54, 55, 98 rejection, 58, 76, 78, 145 relationship, 9, 13, 20, 21, 24, 25, 26, 31, 32, 69, 72, 129, 132, 133, 149, 207, 208, 210, 212 relationships, 33, 65 renewable energy, 85 reputation, 2, 24, 65 research design, 8, 11 resistance, 58, 100, 149

resolution, 43, 56, 114 resource management, 132 resources, 2, 4, 27, 30, 32, 39, 47, 51, 52, 53, 54, 60, 63, 64, 65, 69, 71, 73, 78, 79, 83, 84, 88, 98, 99, 101, 115, 129, 131, 132, 134, 136, 137, 142, 143, 145, 149, 207, 208, 223 retaliation, 24 revenue, 52, 79 Rio de Janeiro, 13, 38, 41, 60, 82, 132, 143, 242 risk, 16, 67, 70, 71 rolling, 87 Rudiger Dornbusch, 208 runoff, 71 Russia, 76, 221

S safety, 131 satisfaction, 48, 78, 137, 211 scarce resources, 27 scarcity, 2, 10, 69, 131 science, ix, 7, 11, 12, 30, 35, 57, 59, 87, 89, 96, 98, 99, 103, 105, 106, 107, 115, 117, 118, 121, 126, 142, 147 scientific knowledge, 25, 42, 43, 111 scientific understanding, 62 sea level, 1, 3, 37, 47, 50, 51, 70, 97 sea-level rise, 50, 51, 70 search, 18, 121, 122, 142 Second World, 42, 75, 114 security, 4, 17, 21, 22, 29, 37, 41, 47, 50, 57, 63, 64, 67, 69, 70, 72, 81, 105, 106, 108, 109, 113, 117, 127, 129, 130, 131, 132, 133, 136, 149, 207, 208, 232, 236, 238, 240, 242 Security Council, 72 self-interest, 23, 24, 65, 88, 136 semi-structured interviews, 12 sensitivity, 28, 149 series, 31, 49, 83, 135, 144 shape, x, 4, 6, 22, 47, 61, 109, 133, 142 shaping, x, 5, 14, 28, 109, 130, 142, 209 shares, 7, 8, 48, 79, 93, 99, 105, 144 sharing, 72, 110, 125, 144, 147 shock, 69 short run, 2, 65, 209 shortage, 209 sign, 42, 45, 75 signals, 25, 100 Sino-US relations, 66 sites, 13 social benefits, 53 social context, 81, 84, 89 social development, 39, 54, 63, 78, 136, 137, 147

Global Warming and China's Environmental Diplomacy, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2008. ProQuest Ebook Central,

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Index social learning, 25 social life, 17, 37, 136 social security, 131 society, 1, 23, 33, 54, 63, 76, 115, 129, 132, 207, 210 soil, 71 solid waste, 53 solidarity, 82 South Africa, 64, 132 South Asia, 131 Southeast Asia, 6 sovereignty, 6, 55, 59, 60, 61, 65, 67, 81, 120, 131, 138, 142, 143 Soviet Union, 225, 232 Spain, 71 specialization, 96 species, 3, 37, 71, 97, 131 stability, 23, 60, 129, 143, 211 stabilization, 42, 75, 227 stages, 3, 4, 14, 38, 41, 46, 49, 56, 75, 99, 121, 123, 131, 142, 210 standard of living, 139 State Department, 65, 66, 136 state planning, 62 statistics, 55 storms, 37, 50, 70, 97 strategies, 23, 43, 54, 101, 117, 124 strength, 9, 25, 111 substitutes, 137 sulfate, 226 sulfur, 45, 66 summer, 51, 71, 230, 233, 235, 238 sun, 218, 219 supply, 53, 79, 137, 207, 209 survival, 63, 64, 82, 92, 129 sustainability, 54, 116, 131 sustainable development, 20, 54, 56, 58, 59, 60, 61, 66, 77, 78, 92, 93, 98, 99, 115, 116, 119, 131, 132, 134, 135, 143, 209, 210, 211, 237 Sweden, 132 Switzerland, 44, 234 systems, 18, 70, 71, 75, 110, 145

253

92, 93, 96, 98, 105, 107, 111, 114, 121, 134, 136, 144, 145, 147, 209, 211, 226 technology transfer, 2, 6, 43, 48, 49, 56, 65, 77, 79, 82, 83, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 98, 111, 114, 135, 226 temperature, 37, 42, 43, 51, 70, 71, 97, 226 terrorism, 16 theory, x, 6, 11, 16, 23, 26, 27, 74, 76, 110, 124, 148, 235 thermal expansion, 37 thinking, 17, 129, 147, 207 Third World, 137, 138, 233 threat, 1, 3, 10, 16, 35, 37, 61, 64, 67, 69, 124, 126, 127, 131, 136, 141, 144 threats, 2, 22, 44, 47, 63, 64, 127, 129, 207, 213 time, ix, 1, 4, 10, 33, 39, 44, 45, 64, 82, 83, 92, 95, 100, 105, 108, 116, 118, 124, 144, 149, 208, 214 time frame, 44 time periods, 1 Tokyo, 6, 47 total costs, 84 tourism, 50, 70, 71 trade, 5, 40, 46, 48, 73, 74, 76, 79, 87, 89, 97, 99, 100, 112, 118, 127, 132, 135, 212, 214 trading, 44, 45, 57, 58, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 98, 100, 208 training, 29, 81, 103, 106, 107, 108, 109, 116, 117, 214, 215, 217 training programs, 107 trajectory, 49 transaction costs, 17, 23, 139 transactions, 23 transformation, 58, 113 transition, 80, 146 translation, 106 transmission, 16, 29, 105, 108 transport, 50, 70, 72 treaties, 64, 132, 139 trend, 2, 16, 38, 49, 63, 65, 137, 207 tropical storms, 37, 97

U T tangible benefits, 82 tanks, ix, 28, 62 targets, 37, 43, 44, 72, 114, 139, 233 taxation, 72 technical assistance, 55, 56, 61, 77, 79, 80, 81, 82, 84, 85, 87, 90, 144, 145 technological progress, 214 technology, 2, 6, 39, 43, 48, 49, 56, 59, 65, 66, 69, 76, 77, 78, 79, 82, 83, 84, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91,

UK, 17, 71, 73, 109, 243 UNCED, 41, 42, 74 United States, 2, 5, 39, 52, 55, 58, 59, 66, 67, 71, 79, 130, 133, 136, 137, 138, 145, 240 universities, 54 urbanization, 48, 49, 78, 80, 137, 211

Global Warming and China's Environmental Diplomacy, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2008. ProQuest Ebook Central,

254

Index

V values, 131, 140 vapor, 226 variable, 8, 11, 22, 33, 114, 140 variables, ix, 2, 6, 7, 8, 11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 19, 20, 21, 22, 29, 30, 32, 33, 34, 35, 40, 47, 130, 139, 140, 141, 148, 149 vector, 50, 70 voice, 15, 18, 71, 105, 112, 122, 124, 134, 141, 148 vulnerability, 50

W

Z zinc, 87

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war, 137 Washington, 18, 47, 50, 52, 71, 223, 230, 232, 237, 238, 239 water resources, 2, 47, 51, 64, 65, 69, 71

water vapor, 226 weapons, 145 web, 13, 244 welfare, 31, 90 Western countries, 100 wheat, 51 wind, 87 winter, 1, 31, 237 working groups, 6, 117, 120 World Bank, 6, 10, 47, 50, 51, 52, 56, 71, 82, 83, 84, 133, 223, 229, 243 World Trade Organization (WTO), 46, 74, 76, 117, 212 World Wide Web, 65, 66

Global Warming and China's Environmental Diplomacy, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2008. ProQuest Ebook Central,