Eurasia's New Frontiers: Young States, Old Societies, Open Futures 9780801461835

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EuRASIA's NEw FRoNTIERS

ALSO BY THOMAS

W.

SIMONS, JR.

The End ofthe Cold War? Eastern Europe in the Postwar World Islam in a Globalizing World

EuRASIA's NEw FRoNTIERS Young States, Old Societies, Open Futures

THOMAS

w. SIMONS, JR.

CoRNELL UNIVERSITY PREss ITHACA AND LoNDON

Copyright© 2008 by Thomas W. Simons,

Jr.

All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or parts thereof, must not be reproduced in any form without permission in writing from the publisher. For information, address Cornell University Press, Sage House, 512 East State Street, Ithaca, New York 14850. First published 2oo8 by Cornell University Press Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Simons, Thomas W. Eurasia's new frontiers : young states, old societies, open futures I Thomas W. Simons, Jr. p. em. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-o-8014-4743-3 (cloth: alk. paper) r. Former Soviet republics-Politics and government. 2. Former Soviet republics-Foreign relations-United States. 3· United States-Foreign relations-Former Soviet republics. I. Title. DK2 93 .s58 2oo8 947.o86-dc22

2008022866

Cornell University Press strives to use environmentally responsible suppliers and materials to the fullest extent possible in the publishing of its books. Such materials include vegetable-based, low-VOC inks and acid-free papers that are recycled, totally chlorine-free, or partly composed of non wood fibers. For further information, visit our website at www.cornellpress.cornell.edu. Cloth printing

1098765432

For Peggy The first time; but then it always is

"The time has come," the Walrus said, "To talk of many things: Of shoes-and ships-and sealing-waxOf cabbages-and kingsAnd why the sea is boiling hotAnd whether pigs have wings." LEwrs

CARROLL,

The Walrus and the Carpenter

CoNTENTs

Acknowledgments

XI

Introduction: Getting Beyond Eurasia's DNA I. The Weakness of Civil Society

15

II. Politics as Elite Infighting

38

III. The Politics of Economics and Sovereignty

63

IV. States, Nations, and Nationalisms in Eurasia

91

\1. Today's Eurasia and the United States

120

Notes

145

Suggestions for Further Reading

167

Index

171

Envoi

179

AcKNOWLEDGMENTs

I was a stranger, and ye took me in.

This little book's path to the light of day began on the Advisory Council of the Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies in Washington, D.C. I joined the council when I retired from the Foreign Service in 1998 for the Stanford history department, and I was serving as council chair in 2001 when my wife and I moved back to Cambridge, Massachusetts, where we had met, after an absence of thirty-eight years. For the first time since I was fifteen, however, I had no position to go to. I was then rescued from terrifying indolence by another Council member, Timothy J. Colton, the director of Harvard's Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies. Tim is a remarkable student of Russian politics whose kindness matches his scholarship, and together with his then associate directors Lisbeth L. Tarlow and Marshall I. Goldman, he and I came up with the idea of a multiyear workshop of academic and government specialists on the

xu

Acknowledgments

Soviet and post-Soviet space to explore the main trends in its life-the most basic and the most salient-since the fall of Communism in 1991. It was to be called the Program on Eurasia in Transition, I was its director, and I will always be grateful to the Davis Center leadership for making that program possible. Four times a year from 2002 to 2005, therefore, a core of fifteen to twenty scholars and serving and retired U.S. government officials and a revolving rim of invitees met in Cambridge's Central Square for sessions on trends that are important across the Eurasian landscape: language, say, or religion, or state-building and institutions, or energy, or civil society. Most of our scholars were in midcareer, so their superb expertise was sometimes narrow; the officials had decades of experience in and on the area, but the knowledge it gave them was often inchoate. I knew how to run a meeting. Together, we were able to rise above our prior expertise and experience to more Olympian views-broader, more comprehensive, more synthetic-than each of us had had before. We were not teleological: we had no idea what Eurasia was transitioning to, although we kept the title because we liked the acronym; and the end points sketched out in this book emerged over three years of good work. The views expressed here are very much mine, and I bear sole responsibility for them. But they are enriched by a hundred insights from my colleagues in the program. Many of the scholars among them are cited in the endnotes and the suggestions for further reading, but I salute them all: you know who you are. And I thank you all for the work and the fellowship.

Acknowledgments

Xlll

There was then a penultimate phase, before the writing, in the process of crystallization that created this book: my three years as Provost's Visiting Professor at Cornell. Two weeks every February from 2004 to 2006, my wife Peggy and I traveled to upstate New York looking for Siberian winters that never came. Instead, I found warm opportunities in my lectures and seminars to refine the impressions on today's post-Soviet space that had come together in the Harvard program and bring them closer to the region's evolving realities (as I would like to think). For that I am grateful to Professor of Economics and Civil and Environmental Engineering Richard Schuler and his wife, Mary, friends of many years who were most responsible for bringing us to Ithaca; to Provost Carolyn (Biddy) Martin, who spread her hand upon me for my stay; to Professor of International Studies and Government Valerie Bunce, a fellow "Eastologist" whose friendly disagreement often spurred me on; and to the rest of the Cornell community who made us so welcome. That includes John G. Ackerman, the director of Cornell University Press, and his wonderfully capable staff. "Cast thou they bread upon the waters: for thou shalt find it after many days," says the Preacher (Ecclesiastes I I: I). Their professional skill and personal good will have made the last phase happen and brought this volume to the world. I hope the world will benefit in this time of presidential transition and thereafter; I know I have benefited immensely already. A final word of gratitude is due to my father and mother, Thomas W. and Mary Jo Simons, the two people who introduced me to the world and then to the wider

XIV

Acknowledgments

world in the first place-we sailed for Calcutta for the State Department in 1945, when I was seven-and who made me want to understand and write about it. My father never saw my first book; at ninety-seven, my mother is still going strong enough to riffle through this one.

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