Ending Civil Wars 0198293437, 9780198293439

Table of contents :
Introduction

Chapter 1: How Civil Wars End: Problems and Patterns
- The Complexity of Intra-State Warfare
- Understanding the Dynamics of Civil War
- Conflict, Negotiations and Political Stability
- Obstacles to Settlement: Three Views

Chapter 2: The Structure of Civil Wars
- Structural Components of Civil War
- Structural Obstacles and Intervention Strategies

Chapter 3: Strategies of War Termination
- Targeting the Structure of Conflict
- External Powers and the Generalization of Trust

Conclusion

Citation preview

About Ending Civil Wars International observers frequently attribute the vicious and prolonged nature of civil wars to the irrational beliefs of the combatants or the irreconcilable goals at the base of the conflict. A visceral devotion to kith and kin and the indivisibility of resources and territory are often seen as the primary reasons for the intractability of modern internal conflicts. This study draws on data from civil wars in Asia, Africa and Latin America to argue that the structure of conflict itself - rather than simply the beliefs or goals of combatants - can help explain why some civil wars drag on past the point at which i t would seem in the best interests of belligerents to lay down their arms. Potential interveners - whether individual states or international organisations - must be sensitive to the structural obstacles to negotiated settlements and formulate their plans for intervention accordingly.

About The International lnst:it:ut:e for Strategic Studies

The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent centre fo r research, information and debate on the problems of conflict, however caused, that have, or potentially have, an important military content. The Council and Staff of the Institute are international and its membershjp is drawn from over 90 countries. The Institute is independent and it alone decides what activities to conduct. It owes no allegiance to any government, any group of governments or any political or other organisation. The uss stresses rigorous research with a forward-looking policy orientation and places particular emphasis on bringing new perspectives to the strategic debate. The lnstitute's publications are designed to meet the needs of a wider audience than its own membership and are available on subscription, by 1nail order and in good bookshops. Further details on inside back cover.

I

Charles King

Ending Civil Wars

Adelphi Paper 308

Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford ox2. 6oP Oxford New York Athens Auckland Bangkok Bombay Calcutta Cape Town Dar es Salaam Delhi Florence Hong Kong Istanbul Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madras Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi Paris Singapore Taipei Tokyo Toronto and associated companies in Berlin Ibadan Oxford is a trade mark of Oxford University Press Published in the United States by Oxford University Press Inc., New York

«:> The International Institute for Strategic Studies 1997 First published March 1997 by Oxford University Press for The Interm1tiona.I Institute for Strategic Studies 23 Tavistock Street, London WC2E 7NQ Director Dr John Chipman Deputy Director Rose Gottemoeller Editor Dr Gerald Segal Assistant Editor Cathy Brannon Production Supervisor Mark Taylor All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or photo-copying, recording or othe rwise, without the prior per mission of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Within the UK, exceptions are allowed in respect of any fair dealing for the purpose of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act, 1988, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms of the licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms and in other countries should be sent c/o Permissions, Journals Department, Oxford University Press, Great C larendon Street, Oxford OX2. 6oP, UK. This book is sold subject to the condition that i t shall not, b y way of trade or otherwise, be lent, re-sold, hired out or otherwise circulated without the publisher's prior consent in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subsequent purchaser. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication Data ISBN 0-19-829343-7 ISSN 0567-932X

• " • �

•

List of illustrations

5

••

Glossary

�

.. i,

11

Introduction

15

Chapter 1. How Civil Wars End: Problems and Patterns • The Complexity of Intra-state Warfare • Understanding tire Dynamics of Civil War • Conflict, Negotiations and Political Stability • Obstacles to Settlement: Tliree Views

29

Chapter 2 The Structure of Civil Wars • Structural Components of Civil War • Structural Obstacles and Intervention Str,ztegies

55

Chapter 3 Strategies of War Termination • Targeting the Structure of Conflict • External Powers and tlle Generation of Trust

80

Conclusion

84

Appendix

88

Notes

..

.. 'I I,

l

I..

6

Map of East Asia and Australasia

53

Map of Sierra Leone and Liberia

54

Map of Africa

74

Map of Mexico

75

Map of Central and South America

r

C

H

I

N

/

A

PACIFIC OCEAN

. .

I

..

..

,.

••

..-·

• • I

.·· . .

.

..

-.....

. ·. .

. ... .

'• •'

IND/AN OCEAN A U S T R ALIA

l:

l

km

500 moles

•

-1

international bolndaly capital cdy

I

0

w�b

�EW ZEAL.ANO

ADFLCZ-·-·-·········· ...·.······················.. Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo-Zaire A NC ..... -·-·············-·-·-·-······-·-·-··...... African National Congress (South Africa) BIF M.............-........................................ Bahrain Islantlc Freedom Movement BLTF..................................-.................. Bodo Liberation Tigers Front (India) BRA ......................................................... Bougainville Revolutionary Army (Papua New Guinea) BSF........................................................... Bodo Security Force (India) cis ....... ..................................................... Commonwealth of Independent States cLMC..................................................... Combined Loyalist Military Comm.and (United Kingdom) EC OMOG ............................................. Econontlc Organisation of West African States Mon i toring Group ELN................. ........................................ Ejercito de Liberaci6n Nacional (Colombia) EP R.......................................................... Ejercito Popular Revolucionario (Mexico) EZ LN................... .................................. Ejercito Zapatista de Liberaci6,1 Nacional (Mexico) FARC ...................................................... Fuerzas Armadas Revoluci onar ias de Colombia ........ ................ Front lslamique du Salut (Algeria) FIS ...... ....... ....................... ..................... Frente Farabtmdo Marti para la Liberaci611 FMLN ..... ... ....................... Naciorral (El Salvador) . ............... Fre11te Norte 380 (Nicaragua) F N3 Bo ................... ............... . .. Fre11te Revolucio11ario Timore11se de ........ .. FRETILIN................. Libertap'io e I11depe11de11cia (East Timor)

8 Charles Kin g

FRELIMO -----·-·-·-·-·-------· Frente

para a Liberta�iio de Mo�am i b que . · FSLN ·-----·-·---·-·-·--····-····· Fre·n te 5andz.nzs . ta de L1berac16 n Naciona/ (Nicaragua)

c ··-·-· ----·····-····-·------·----··· Incumbent governme nt

ls la mique Armee (Alge ria) IFOR --·-·-··---··-·--···-·-··- Implementation Force (Bosnia) IFP ·--··--·--···---··----· Inkatha Freedom Party (Sou th Africa) IMT ····--·-----·----···---·-····· Islamic Movement of Tajiki stan INA·-·-·--··-·---·--·-·-··-· Iraqi National Accord INC·-·---- -----·---···- Iraqi National Congres s IRA----·---·--·-·--·Irish Republican Army (United King dom) Kor·-----·-···-·----·-··-- Kurdistan Democratic Party (Iraq) Jrm�r Yugosl