Economics of Tourism in Portugal: Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic 3030651991, 9783030651992

Table of contents :
Acknowledgements
About This Book
Contents
About the Author
The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector Sufficiently Prepared for New Paradigms?
1 Introduction
2 Exploring Insights from the Statistical Information
2.1 NUTS 2
2.2 Country of Residence
2.3 Type of Establishment
3 Correlations Between Guests and Overnight Stays and Economic Indicators
4 Conclusions
References
The Main Changes in Tourism Revenues: There Are Alternatives?
1 Introduction
2 Data Analysis
2.1 Statistical Information Disaggregated by NUTS 2
2.2 Statistical Information Disaggregated by Type of Establishment
3 Interrelationships Between the Tourism Revenues and Some Economic Indicators
4 Conclusions
References
Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?
1 Introduction
2 Bibliometric Analysis
3 Statistical Information Analysis by Portuguese Municipalities
4 Conclusions
References
Index

Citation preview

SPRINGER BRIEFS IN ECONOMICS

Vítor João Pereira Domingues Martinho

Economics of Tourism in Portugal Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic 12 3

SpringerBriefs in Economics

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More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/8876

Vítor João Pereira Domingues Martinho

Economics of Tourism in Portugal Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Vítor João Pereira Domingues Martinho Agricultural School (ESAV) and CERNAS-IPV Research Centre Polytechnic Institute of Viseu (IPV) Viseu, Portugal

ISSN 2191-5504     ISSN 2191-5512 (electronic) SpringerBriefs in Economics ISBN 978-3-030-65199-2    ISBN 978-3-030-65200-5 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-65200-5 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland

Acknowledgements

This work is funded by National Funds through the FCT – Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P., within the scope of the project Refª UIDB/00681/2020. Furthermore we would like to thank the CERNAS Research Centre and the Polytechnic Institute of Viseu for their support. I would like to thank all those who have contributed in some way to this work. A special thanks to my wife Lúcia Domingues Martinho and my two daughters Inês Domingues Martinho and Isabel Domingues Martinho

v

About This Book

Taking into account the current world conditions and the importance of the tourism sector for the Portuguese economy, the main objective of this book is to highlight the economic contexts of tourism in Portugal at regional and municipal levels, namely presenting the frameworks before the Covid-19 pandemic and discussing the main implications for the future. To this purpose, economic dynamics are described for each of the dimensions of tourism in the Portuguese reality. From these frameworks, several discussions about future perspectives in these dimensions are presented.

vii

Contents

 The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector Sufficiently Prepared for New Paradigms? ��������������������������������������    1 1 Introduction��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������    1 2 Exploring Insights from the Statistical Information������������������������������    3 2.1 NUTS 2������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������    3 2.2 Country of Residence��������������������������������������������������������������������    7 2.3 Type of Establishment ������������������������������������������������������������������   17 3 Correlations Between Guests and Overnight Stays and Economic Indicators������������������������������������������������������������������������   24 4 Conclusions��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   31 References��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   37 The Main Changes in Tourism Revenues: There Are Alternatives? ����������   39 1 Introduction��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   39 2 Data Analysis ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   41 2.1 Statistical Information Disaggregated by NUTS 2������������������������   41 2.2 Statistical Information Disaggregated by Type of Establishment����������������������������������������������������������������������������   46 3 Interrelationships Between the Tourism Revenues and Some Economic Indicators ������������������������������������������������������������   48 4 Conclusions��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   53 References��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   64 Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?����������������������������������������������������������������������������������   67 1 Introduction��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   67 2 Bibliometric Analysis����������������������������������������������������������������������������   69 3 Statistical Information Analysis by Portuguese Municipalities ������������   71 4 Conclusions��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������   79 References��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������  100 Index������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������  103 ix

About the Author

Vítor João Pereira Domingues Martinho is coordinator professor with habilitation at the Polytechnic Institute of Viseu, Portugal, and holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Coimbra, Portugal. He was president of the Scientific Council, president of the Directive Council and president of the Agricultural Polytechnic School of Viseu, Portugal, from 2006 to 2012. Dr. Martinho was also the president of the Direction of the Association of Forest Producers of Viseu, Portugal. He was an Erasmus student in the Faculty of Economics at the University of Verona, Italy, participated in various technical and scientific events nationally and internationally, has published several technical and scientific papers, is referee of some scientific and technical journals, and participates in the evaluation of national and international projects.  

xi

The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector Sufficiently Prepared for New Paradigms?

Abstract  The Covid-19 pandemic has created new realities and contexts that provide real challenges for the population, economic operators and public institutions. The tourism sector in Portugal is particularly vulnerable to these new scenarios and considering the sheer weight of these activities on the Portuguese economy, the framework which has been generated is a real problem for the several stakeholders. From different dimensions of the tourism sector in Portugal, in this study indicators associated with guests and overnight stays were selected. The evolution of these indicators was first analysed and later correlated with other economic variables. The main objective was to assess the evolution of the sector over recent years and the impacts from Covid-19 on these frameworks. The results and the main insights obtained show that nobody was prepared for this economic blow and that the evolution of the tourism sector in Portugal since March 2020 has suffered a strong negative trend, more than in other sectors, due to the vulnerability of the sector to human mobility, namely from international markets. Keywords  Panel data · NUTS 2 · Countries of residence · Type of establishments · Matrices of correlation · Economic indicators

1  Introduction The tourism sector in Portugal is a mature market (Claveria 2016) and is decisive for the Portuguese economy. This relevance is further accentuated in certain regions than in others, which makes these Portuguese territories more vulnerable to any disturbance which may affect the flux of tourists. Tourists from the UK have been the greatest consumers of the supply from Portuguese tourism, namely in the Algarve, jointly with those from Germany, Spain, France or Italy, among other countries (Andraz et al. 2009). The Algarve is an important touristic region, where the beaches, but also other attractions, such as surfing, are pertinent dimensions of the tourism resources (Frank et al. 2015). The legislation and policies designed for © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 V. J. P. D. Martinho, Economics of Tourism in Portugal, SpringerBriefs in Economics, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-65200-5_1

1

2

The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector…

the tourism sector (Machado 2017) and the technological dimensions have here a determinant role for a successful dynamic (Machado et al. 2020). Every year, the city of Lisbon is, also, an interesting tourist attraction that brings several tourists from different parts of the world, where the food quality, safety and events are relevant attributes for their probability of returning (Barros and Assaf 2012). The concerns with sustainability are real for the several domains of society and the economy, where the tourism sector is not an exception (Moutinho et  al. 2015), and this may be considered as another factor of differentiation and fidelity. In fact, the residents in great city centres agree that the growth in tourism brings ­benefits in terms of business and employment, but are, also, concerned with the environment and cultural changes (Petruzzi et al. 2020). Nonetheless, of course, the touristic potential of Portugal is not limited to the Algarve and Lisbon. Portuguese heritage is vast, as well its history (Bryce and Causevic 2016). Rural tourism is an example of touristic initiative with great potential (Marques and Antunes Moura 2019) and where there is still much to be explored (Correia Loureiro 2014). In these frameworks, satisfaction (Loureiro 2010) and reputation (Correia Loureiro and Kastenholz 2011) are crucial for fostering loyalty. Nautical tourism (Kovacic and Silveira 2018), the diversity of suggestions from the centre of Portugal (Marques and Santos 2016), the several routes, such as the Dominican route, (Meneses Rodrigues 2019), ecotourism (Roseta et al. 2020), or experiences that combine landscapes, architecture and traditions (Silva and Prista 2016) are other interesting examples. The Portuguese context has changed over the years, but, at least, the essence of the historic and cultural heritage remains in several contexts such as those related to the “Pousadas de Portugal” (Prista 2015), or UNESCO recognitions (Ramires et al. 2018). For example, the international students that arrive in Lisbon every year and the way in which they are housed within the city have had implications on these dynamics of change (Calvo 2018), as well as, some relevant events such as the Expo 98 (Cro and Martins 2018). Despite the similarities and dependence among the Portuguese frameworks on the tourism supply along with other European countries (Lyocsa et al. 2020), there are specificities that should be highlighted in terms of touristic marketing. In terms of a methodological approach to analyse the touristic activities in Portugal, there are several suggestions highlighted in the scientific literature (Fernandes et  al. 2008), including for the assessment of competitiveness (Perna et al. 2018). The approach adopted in this study considered, first, the evolution of several touristic indicators related, namely, with guests and overnight stays over the monthly period from January 2013 until May 2020 for the Portuguese context. In a second phase, these indicators were correlated with some economic variables. The main objective of this study is to assess the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Portuguese tourism market. The statistical information was obtained from Statistics Portugal (INE 2020) and worked through the Stata software (StataCorp. 2017a, b; Stata 2020).

2 Exploring Insights from the Statistical Information

3

2  Exploring Insights from the Statistical Information In this section the data will be analysed first by NUTS 2 and then by country of tourists’ residence and by establishment.

2.1  NUTS 2 The regions of the AM Lisboa, the Norte and the Algarve are, respectively, the leading regions in terms of number of guests in tourist accommodation establishments, on average over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020. After this the Centro region, RA Madeira, the Alentejo and RA Açores appear (Fig. 1). When the number of overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments are considered the Algarve appears before AM Lisboa and Norte and followed by RA Madeira before the Centro, Alentejo and RA Açores regions (Fig. 2). This means that the tourists stay for a longer time in the Algarve (comparatively to AM Lisboa, for example) and in RA Madeira (relative to Centro, for instance). For the number of overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal the monthly aver-

Fig. 1  Number of guests in tourist accommodation establishments, by NUTS 2 (including total) and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Note: 1, Total; 2, Norte; 3, Centro; 4, AM Lisboa; 5, Alentejo; 6, Algarve; 7, RA Açores; 8, RA Madeira.

4

The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector…

Fig. 2  Number of overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments, by NUTS 2 (including total) and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Note: 1, Total; 2, Norte; 3, Centro; 4, AM Lisboa; 5, Alentejo; 6, Algarve; 7, RA Açores; 8, RA Madeira.

age in decreasing order is as follows (Fig. 3): Algarve; Norte; AM Lisboa; Centro; Alentejo; RA Madeira; RA Açores. In turn, for the number of overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents the order is that shown here (Fig. 4): Algarve; AM Lisboa; RA Madeira; Norte; Centro; RA Açores; Alentejo. The results for these last two variables reveal, for example, that Portuguese tourists prefer the mainland regions and foreign tourists put RA Madeira before Norte and Centro and RA Açores before the Alentejo. Finally, the distribution of average stays in tourist accommodation establishments (Fig.  5) shows that, in general and on average, each tourist stays 2.66 nights in the accommodation establishments, with RA Madeira, Algarve and RA Açores above the Portuguese average and the other regions below the national average. These figures highlight that the tourism sector is a cyclical activity. The monthly average (from January until May) growth rate (%), over the period 2013–2019 (Table 1) demonstrates that the Portuguese regions, for guests in tourist accommodation establishments, have grown on average around 22% for each month considered, with Algarve, RA Açores and the Alentejo with higher averages and the remaining regions with growth below the national average. RA Madeira was the region with the worst monthly average growth rates (around 15%). The context for overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments and overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal (in this variable RA

2 Exploring Insights from the Statistical Information

5

Fig. 3  Number of overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal, by NUTS 2 (including total) and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Note: 1, Total; 2, Norte; 3, Centro; 4, AM Lisboa; 5, Alentejo; 6, Algarve; 7, RA Açores; 8, RA Madeira.

Madeira improved its position to appear after the Alentejo) is no different from that described for the number of guests. For the overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents, the region RA Açores had the higher monthly average growth rates (around 50%), followed by Centro, the Algarve, the Alentejo and Norte. The Portuguese average was around 28% and AM Lisboa and RA Madeira had growth rates below the national average. This shows that RA Açores was the region where the demand from foreign tourists increased the most. In terms of average stays the region RA Açores was, also, that where this variable increased the most and RA Madeira shows negative growth rates on average for the period considered. These findings highlight the importance of the foreign guest for Portuguese tourism. March and April are 2 months with great increases in the number of guests and overnight stays. In 2020, with the impact from the Covid-19 pandemic (Table  2), the context changed completely, nevertheless, May was a month with some recovery, but, of course, nothing compared to the levels of 2019. On a monthly average, AM Lisboa was the region that lost more guests in tourist accommodation establishments (around −4%). For the overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments only RA Açores and Alentejo present positive average growth rates (30 and 12%, respectively). The worst context appears in RA Madeira and AM Lisboa. A similar pattern was found for the overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments

6

The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector…

Fig. 4  Number of overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents, by NUTS 2 (including total) and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Note: 1, Total; 2, Norte; 3, Centro; 4, AM Lisboa; 5, Alentejo; 6, Algarve; 7, RA Açores; 8, RA Madeira.

by residents in Portugal. For the overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents the Norte is the only region with positive monthly average growth rates (around 2%) and RA Açores join the group of RA Madeira and AM Lisboa with more negative trends. The more dramatic contexts seem to be those from AM Lisboa and RA Madeira. In homologous terms, over the period 2013–2019 and for the months from January until May (Table 3), the monthly average growth rate for the total number guests was around 11%. RA Açores was where the number of guests increased the most (17%) and Algarve and RA Madeira had growth rates below the total average. The context for the global overnight stays is no different from this pattern. For the number of overnight stays by Portuguese residents RA Açores appears, again, with the best increases and the AM Lisboa with the worst. In terms of overnight stays by foreign tourists, Norte and RA Açores are the regions with greater growth rates and RA Madeira and Algarve with the worst. The Alentejo and RA Açores seem to be the regions with better performance, in terms of guests and overnight stays, before the Covid-19 pandemic. In general, January and April were 2 months with better performance in homologous terms. After the pandemic and in homologous terms (Table 4), the more dramatic contexts, for the number of guests and overnight stays, were in RA Madeira, AM Lisboa and the Algarve. In any case, the monthly average growth rates are negative for all

2 Exploring Insights from the Statistical Information

7

Fig. 5  Distribution of average stays in tourist accommodation establishments, by NUTS 2 (including total) and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Note: 1, Total; 2, Norte; 3, Centro; 4, AM Lisboa; 5, Alentejo; 6, Algarve; 7, RA Açores; 8, RA Madeira.

regions. The same is verified when the overnight stays are disaggregated for the national and foreign residents. The relatively good performance in the tourism sector in Portugal in the months of January and February, before the pandemic context should be noted.

2.2  Country of Residence Figure 6 reveals that over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020, the average number of non-resident guests in tourist accommodation establishments was greater, respectively for UK, Spain, France, Germany, Brazil, USA, Netherlands, Italy, Ireland, Belgium, Switzerland, Canada, Poland, China, Sweden and Denmark. For the overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents the decreasing order is the following (Fig. 7): UK, Germany, Spain, France, Netherlands, Brazil, USA, Ireland, Italy, Belgium, Poland, Switzerland, Sweden, Canada, Denmark and China. This context reveals, for example, that the German tourist stays for longer than Spanish guests. Over the period 2013–2019, considering only the months of January, February, March, April and May, Table 5 demonstrates that the higher growth rates were found

NUTS 2 Total Total Total Total Norte Norte Norte Norte Centro Centro Centro Centro AM Lisboa AM Lisboa AM Lisboa AM Lisboa Alentejo Alentejo Alentejo Alentejo

Guests in tourist accommodation establishments 12.045 33.926 24.583 15.696 7.520 27.220 19.852 14.849 16.488 27.085 21.001 17.777 5.115

31.326

15.343

14.366

15.656 40.656 30.145 13.954

Month February March April May February March April May February March April May February

March

April

May

February March April May

20.431 41.941 31.877 10.603

12.384

16.224

39.414

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments 16.472 38.420 25.881 16.774 8.705 34.002 23.131 15.748 22.400 33.786 22.345 16.071 6.678

16.703 35.791 28.641 −0.272

8.960

3.045

21.632

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal 11.665 29.266 17.725 3.049 8.459 20.004 9.949 4.709 19.897 21.535 6.144 3.478 1.583

32.082 57.060 39.833 32.193

13.425

20.478

46.551

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents 18.937 42.632 29.441 21.963 9.233 50.868 36.413 24.398 31.507 63.335 51.591 31.724 8.917

Table 1  Monthly average (since January until May) growth rate (%), over the period 2013–2019, by NUTS 2 (including total)

4.051 0.786 0.909 −3.175

−1.789

0.668

6.125

Average stay in tourist accommodation establishments 3.940 3.350 0.915 0.887 1.088 5.311 2.540 0.718 5.008 5.268 0.700 −1.399 1.497

8 The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector…

Algarve Algarve Algarve Algarve RA Açores RA Açores RA Açores RA Açores RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira

13.400

7.665

April

May

February 10.080

30.075

8.247

20.707

May

March

22.249

37.387

April

9.939

7.425

22.150

43.604

53.033

43.435

March

42.759 52.213 49.035 24.953 19.796

36.797 57.015 55.987 20.284 12.436

February March April May February

7.427

23.143

38.107

7.101

2.322

21.488

41.600

24.693 69.515 68.800 −2.633 23.308

10.300

5.885

20.787

8.372

40.601

71.007

71.190

46.785 49.371 46.226 31.252 17.450

2.176

−5.202

−6.052

−1.633

1.269

4.380

7.054

4.392 −2.924 −4.468 3.821 6.612

2 Exploring Insights from the Statistical Information 9

NUTS 2 Total Total Total Total Norte Norte Norte Norte Centro Centro Centro Centro AM Lisboa AM Lisboa AM Lisboa AM Lisboa Alentejo Alentejo Alentejo Alentejo

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments 17.997 −50.499 −91.842 98.063 8.929 −57.116 −86.438 133.195 26.253 −61.889 −85.651 102.481 4.175 −54.130 −90.529 74.027 30.294 −56.139 −78.386 151.117

Guests in tourist accommodation establishments 12.413 −56.558 −92.302 180.824 7.954 −60.149 −86.226 172.960 20.031 −64.744 −92.118 225.639 0.707

−55.779

−92.371

130.498

Month February March April May February March April May February March April May February

March

April

May

February 21.543 March −59.700 April −87.812 May 274.207

31.696 −58.007 −74.243 173.502

74.283

−76.553

−54.597

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal 21.556 −56.673 −80.886 110.689 15.983 −59.019 −76.596 127.426 30.200 −63.680 −81.453 101.091 7.487

27.232 −51.917 −86.563 66.437

73.537

−95.573

−53.959

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents 16.239 −47.310 −96.496 68.809 3.136 −55.358 −94.781 155.128 17.932 −57.720 −94.045 111.136 3.013

Table 2  Monthly (from January until May) growth rate (%), for the year 2020, by NUTS 2 (including total)

7.199 8.837 77.344 −32.894

−24.500

24.144

3.729

Average stay in tourist accommodation establishments 4.968 13.948 5.970 −29.471 0.903 7.612 −1.533 −14.568 5.183 8.099 82.035 −37.820 3.443

10 The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector…

Algarve Algarve Algarve Algarve RA Açores RA Açores RA Açores RA Açores RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira −43.551 −99.656

11.634 −44.662 −99.266

−47.440

−99.858

383.333

15.094

−40.822

−99.842

826.531

March

April

May

February

March

April

May

38.430

242.381

51.108 −38.620 −94.582 64.019 21.353

February 43.619 March −50.450 April −96.282 May 231.142 February 16.561

93.420

−95.878

−46.561

15.923

320.667

−99.588

−45.456

44.049 −50.902 −83.984 115.839 24.386

364.089 −85.059

−32.083

−6.489

−3.006

−29.163

141.319

7.398

5.214 23.876 45.717 −50.469 4.111

−99.643

−44.442

11.159

46.667

−99.757

−40.485

52.996 −35.526 −96.614 17.000 16.770

2 Exploring Insights from the Statistical Information 11

NUTS 2 Total Total Total Total Total Norte Norte Norte Norte Norte Centro Centro Centro Centro Centro AM Lisboa AM Lisboa AM Lisboa AM Lisboa AM Lisboa Alentejo

11.524

9.663

April

May

12.536

11.286

11.601

March

January

13.009

February 12.237

14.493

9.081

12.399

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments 11.211 9.654 8.643 11.898 8.050 14.470 13.103 12.940 16.902 12.574 12.645 8.834 8.099 14.742 10.389 13.987

Guests in tourist accommodation establishments Month January 11.777 February 10.854 March 10.016 April 12.514 May 9.921 January 12.218 February 11.762 March 11.873 April 14.943 May 11.582 January 12.337 February 9.672 March 8.898 April 14.358 May 11.028 January 12.744

13.841

7.675

8.069

9.033

8.693

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal 10.055 9.087 8.057 13.786 9.252 9.505 8.485 8.557 12.546 8.569 9.961 7.873 6.797 14.277 9.714 7.979

17.224

9.479

13.697

12.053

14.770

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents 11.851 9.951 8.987 11.274 7.732 21.061 18.945 17.582 20.539 15.243 19.776 11.599 10.900 15.741 11.708 16.764

1.853

−0.489

0.587

−0.295

0.593

Average stay in tourist accommodation establishments −0.489 −1.126 −1.354 −0.699 −1.669 2.001 1.162 0.799 1.477 0.879 0.321 −0.784 −1.057 −0.012 −0.610 0.976

Table 3  Monthly average (from January until May) homologous growth rate (%), over the period 2013–2019, by NUTS 2 (including total)

12 The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector…

Alentejo Alentejo Alentejo Alentejo Algarve Algarve Algarve Algarve Algarve RA Açores RA Açores RA Açores RA Açores RA Açores RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira

19.311

18.555

February 17.726

17.161

16.615

15.795

8.904

7.686

6.437

4.348

3.898

March

April

May

January

February

March

April

May

1.760

3.055

4.837

5.568

7.363

13.864

16.646

13.153 11.730 17.729 13.191 6.965 6.307 5.579 12.003 6.408 22.241

12.512 11.782 15.800 12.966 8.877 8.759 7.199 12.742 8.773 18.761

February March April May January February March April May January

7.882

11.107

9.351

10.114

11.161

18.624

22.721

21.250

19.621

12.475 10.242 17.956 11.964 11.966 9.203 7.271 21.523 9.430 18.927

1.183

2.327

4.513

5.219

7.097

11.401

11.961

15.576

20.017

15.968 16.215 18.407 15.655 6.065 5.966 5.975 10.577 6.027 29.028

−2.001

−1.120

−1.397

−1.940

−1.339

−1.419

0.061

1.291

0.815

0.702 −0.388 0.982 0.130 −1.737 −1.990 −1.148 −0.675 −2.071 2.549

2 Exploring Insights from the Statistical Information 13

NUTS 2 Total Total Total Total Total Norte Norte Norte Norte Norte Centro Centro Centro Centro Centro AM Lisboa AM Lisboa AM Lisboa AM Lisboa AM Lisboa Alentejo Alentejo

Month January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February

Guests in tourist accommodation establishments 11.992 15.188 −62.594 −97.697 −94.222 14.984 18.819 −63.995 −95.932 −89.940 12.271 24.512 −66.347 −97.918 −93.952 12.150 6.553 −63.768 −97.481 −94.801 20.085 30.659

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments 7.727 14.762 −58.682 −97.393 −95.274 15.364 20.866 −62.109 −95.937 −91.373 11.194 28.097 −64.177 −96.079 −92.688 9.023 7.634 −63.838 −96.973 −95.090 14.258 39.429

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal 11.763 26.566 −58.144 −93.548 −85.934 9.125 21.722 −60.430 −91.717 −80.761 15.301 34.149 −61.890 −93.879 −87.220 11.120 18.652 −57.669 −89.818 −83.537 9.400 33.866

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents 5.839 9.487 −58.906 −98.905 −98.382 21.047 20.087 −63.425 −98.617 −96.993 3.429 15.925 −68.015 −98.789 −97.933 8.306 4.097 −65.645 −98.708 −97.908 26.524 53.879

Table 4  Monthly (from January until May) homologous growth rate (%), for the year 2020, by NUTS 2 (including total)

(continued)

Average stay in tourist accommodation establishments −3.809 −0.370 10.458 13.175 −18.214 0.330 1.723 5.238 −0.139 −14.240 −0.959 2.879 6.448 88.339 20.896 −2.788 1.014 −0.194 20.175 −5.562 −4.852 6.712

14 The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector…

Alentejo Alentejo Alentejo Algarve Algarve Algarve Algarve Algarve RA Açores RA Açores RA Açores RA Açores RA Açores RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira

March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May

−63.343 −96.583 −88.621 8.230 19.158 −61.028 −99.129 −97.463 11.610 15.756 −53.382 −99.953 −99.807 0.995 7.303 −50.062 −99.925 −99.359

−56.290 −93.298 −84.301 2.239 14.571 −52.665 −98.436 −97.681 10.477 17.870 −55.234 −99.891 −99.677 −0.691 8.271 −50.852 −99.641 −99.544

−56.964 −91.808 −76.725 12.476 39.846 −54.018 −96.299 −90.485 11.659 13.604 −56.149 −99.854 −99.341 17.153 27.844 −48.497 −98.254 −97.008

−54.895 −96.029 −94.807 −0.191 9.583 −52.396 −98.974 −98.976 8.738 25.450 −53.812 −99.934 −99.931 −2.339 6.388 −51.100 −99.822 −99.889 19.240 96.166 37.965 −5.535 −3.849 21.459 79.563 −8.572 −1.016 1.826 −3.973 130.206 67.249 −1.669 0.902 −1.581 375.989 −28.923

2 Exploring Insights from the Statistical Information 15

16

The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector…

Fig. 6  Number of non-resident guests in tourist accommodation establishments, by country of residence (including total) and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Note: 1, Total; 2, UK; 3, Germany; 4, Spain; 5, France; 6, Brazil; 7, USA; 8, Netherlands; 9, Ireland; 10, Italy; 11, Belgium; 12, Canada; 13, Poland; 14, Switzerland; 15, Sweden; 16, China; 17, Denmark; 18, Others.

for guests from Ireland and Canada (67 and 54% on monthly average, respectively). A similar pattern was found for the overnight stays. As referred to before, in general, in monthly periods from January until May, the demand for Portuguese tourism supply increased more in the months of March and April (higher average growth rates). Nonetheless, it is worth noting, for example, the negative growth rates for Spanish residents in May, Brazilian in February (that have higher growth rates in April and May), Italian in February, Swedish in May, Chinese in March (that have higher increases in January) and Danish in April and May. After the pandemic context (Table  6) the greater decreases were verified for guests from China, Italy, Belgium and Switzerland. In terms of overnight stays, the greater decreases were for residents from China, Italy, Brazil, Poland, Belgium and Sweden. The context in China and Italy at the beginning of the pandemic had its effect on the demand for tourism from residents of those countries. In homologous terms (Table 7), the higher growth rates were found for the overnight stays and respective guests from China and USA. The guests from China increased on average 38% per month and from USA 23%. The overnight stays have grown by monthly average 35% for guests from China and 23% for guests from USA. All international markets had positive homologous average growth rates, but the Chinese and North American demand showed promising signs and interesting perspectives.

2 Exploring Insights from the Statistical Information

17

Fig. 7  Number of overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents, by country of residence (including total) and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Note: 1, Total; 2, UK; 3, Germany; 4, Spain; 5, France; 6, Brazil; 7, USA; 8, Netherlands; 9, Ireland; 10, Italy; 11, Belgium; 12, Canada; 13, Poland; 14, Switzerland; 15, Sweden; 16, China; 17, Denmark; 18, Others.

For the first five months of 2020 (Table 8), again, the more accentuated decreases were for guests from China, Italy, Denmark and Sweden. The same occurs for the number of overnight stays. It is worth stressing that, in general, the growth rates are negative in homologous terms (when considering the monthly average for each country, all growth rates are negative).

2.3  Type of Establishment Over the monthly period 2013–2020, on average, the number of overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments was greater, respectively, in hotels, hotel-­ apartments, local accommodation, touristic apartments, touristic villages, rural tourism and housing and “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” (Fig. 8). In fact, hotels and local accommodation are the preferred accommodation establishments by touristic demand for the Portuguese supply. Rural tourism, for example, has great potential, but cannot provide accommodation for mass tourism. The monthly average (from January until May) growth rate (%), over the period 2013–2019, by type of establishment, for the overnight stays, was greater for the

18

The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector…

Table 5  Monthly average (since January until May) growth rate (%), over the period 2013–2019, by country of residence (including total)

Country Total Total Total Total UK UK UK UK Germany Germany Germany Germany Spain Spain Spain Spain France France France France Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil USA USA USA USA Netherlands Netherlands Netherlands Netherlands Ireland Ireland Ireland Ireland Italy Italy

Month February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March

Non-resident guests in tourist accommodation establishments, by country of residence 15.078 46.116 35.799 22.746 31.438 43.683 43.940 33.464 38.767 75.042 16.034 16.772 24.323 61.270 26.468 −7.649 22.927 36.993 73.679 41.007 −24.266 14.593 39.995 38.903 8.279 85.392 45.811 41.283 33.668 29.256 38.353 45.823 31.438 62.725 113.037 59.412 −10.100 40.912

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents, by country of residence 18.937 42.632 29.441 21.963 24.341 32.284 40.505 37.727 33.616 61.084 6.572 15.288 22.431 83.039 34.581 −11.474 30.521 34.743 84.714 36.483 −25.357 12.655 32.864 36.019 16.570 74.137 36.385 38.593 33.452 12.151 15.208 44.703 30.750 65.855 138.490 79.700 −11.082 46.252 (continued)

2 Exploring Insights from the Statistical Information

19

Table 5 (continued)

Country Italy Italy Belgium Belgium Belgium Belgium Canada Canada Canada Canada Poland Poland Poland Poland Switzerland Switzerland Switzerland Switzerland Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden China China China China Denmark Denmark Denmark Denmark Others Others Others Others

Month April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May

Non-resident guests in tourist accommodation establishments, by country of residence 43.561 5.650 32.993 58.396 71.474 19.259 73.417 88.627 6.575 45.694 15.529 12.271 71.707 40.156 35.558 51.167 71.847 7.899 32.836 66.703 18.275 −23.248 59.596 −18.078 35.141 24.254 41.949 46.277 −1.208 −21.054 −5.238 38.218 32.331 22.191

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents, by country of residence 33.785 0.658 31.165 61.516 92.700 16.589 154.109 69.029 −32.197 25.964 17.508 8.479 40.211 39.291 44.446 50.997 68.598 0.283 35.073 80.592 −2.277 −33.590 54.711 −18.775 27.736 19.877 39.199 33.756 −10.986 −33.563 −1.016 38.995 25.203 14.615

tourist apartments (38% on average for each month considered), rural tourism and housing (35%), tourist villages (30%), hospitality (25%) and local accommodation (21%) (Table 9). The interesting growth rates for rural tourism are great news for the associated operators and for an integrated rural development.

20

The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector…

Table 6  Monthly (from January until May) growth rate (%), for the year 2020, by country of residence (including total)

Country Total Total Total Total UK UK UK UK Germany Germany Germany Germany Spain Spain Spain Spain France France France France Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil USA USA USA USA Netherlands Netherlands Netherlands Netherlands Ireland Ireland Ireland Ireland Italy Italy

Month February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March

Non-resident guests in tourist accommodation establishments, by country of residence 7.470 −51.659 −97.392 185.467 31.866 −43.077 −98.710 222.654 35.495 −28.363 −98.719 302.545 30.985 −67.648 −96.257 230.396 26.966 −51.954 −97.696 253.325 −22.591 −52.633 −95.884 172.525 7.260 −45.258 −98.734 193.355 28.287 −41.501 −97.405 183.405 34.755 −50.226 −98.008 280.882 −17.876 −70.385

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents, by country of residence 16.239 −47.310 −96.496 68.809 27.248 −41.134 −98.543 57.935 36.127 −30.012 −98.813 155.480 34.040 −65.254 −94.073 130.345 42.526 −52.719 −97.655 139.083 −23.568 −52.544 −92.498 70.207 13.460 −51.135 −98.096 103.242 28.556 −40.648 −97.754 82.581 39.609 −47.876 −97.837 165.490 −12.397 −67.285 (continued)

2 Exploring Insights from the Statistical Information

21

Table 6 (continued)

Country Italy Italy Belgium Belgium Belgium Belgium Canada Canada Canada Canada Poland Poland Poland Poland Switzerland Switzerland Switzerland Switzerland Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden China China China China Denmark Denmark Denmark Denmark Others Others Others Others

Month April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May

Non-resident guests in tourist accommodation establishments, by country of residence −94.627 130.140 27.768 −48.685 −94.817 79.076 80.439 −20.730 −98.981 131.481 20.386 −61.726 −97.324 254.264 14.691 −49.342 −95.766 122.266 25.951 −43.786 −98.528 198.936 −66.550 −71.069 −95.618 56.376 52.218 −44.443 −97.803 97.581 −11.694 −57.107 −96.352 128.882

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents, by country of residence −78.944 24.315 31.402 −44.747 −95.758 41.898 140.380 −24.439 −99.488 195.640 18.352 −61.246 −96.413 65.309 22.234 −46.757 −95.375 68.618 26.981 −30.542 −98.345 37.271 −57.175 −65.497 −95.149 67.241 45.055 −45.717 −98.921 90.972 −5.999 −52.815 −92.818 20.723

With the Covid-19 pandemic the more accentuated decreases, for the overnight stays, were verified for the “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” (−25% on average per month), hotels-apartments (−20%) and touristic villages (−16%) (Table 10). The growth rates for rural tourism in May show that this accommodation supply is a relevant alternative for the tourism supply in times of pandemic constraints.

22

The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector…

Table 7  Monthly average (from January until May) homologous growth rate (%), over the period 2013–2019, by country of residence (including total)

Country Total Total Total Total Total UK UK UK UK UK Germany Germany Germany Germany Germany Spain Spain Spain Spain Spain France France France France France Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil USA USA USA USA USA Netherlands Netherlands Netherlands

Month January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March

Non-resident guests in tourist accommodation establishments, by country of residence 14.737 13.081 11.623 13.243 10.494 9.245 9.777 9.334 8.724 7.511 9.819 7.167 8.218 9.840 7.465 12.429 12.201 13.600 30.490 10.531 18.385 17.044 15.372 11.429 9.217 21.871 16.555 25.848 20.411 13.821 23.796 23.916 23.999 20.723 21.761 5.216 3.766 7.228

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents, by country of residence 11.851 9.951 8.987 11.274 7.732 5.885 6.636 6.984 7.750 4.997 8.353 5.350 5.875 7.854 5.303 12.984 12.972 16.622 38.562 9.306 17.898 16.638 14.331 11.971 7.710 21.464 16.801 24.416 20.766 14.031 26.542 24.221 23.246 21.090 21.813 3.438 0.923 3.446 (continued)

2 Exploring Insights from the Statistical Information

23

Table 7 (continued)

Country Netherlands Netherlands Ireland Ireland Ireland Ireland Ireland Italy Italy Italy Italy Italy Belgium Belgium Belgium Belgium Belgium Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Poland Poland Poland Poland Poland Switzerland Switzerland Switzerland Switzerland Switzerland Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden China China

Month April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February

Non-resident guests in tourist accommodation establishments, by country of residence 7.640 3.941 21.931 20.511 13.592 14.327 8.322 18.151 18.685 17.757 13.686 13.053 17.859 16.416 15.151 10.252 8.159 23.849 21.834 18.369 20.854 22.298 22.229 20.143 24.706 15.991 18.619 15.075 10.859 12.476 12.640 11.091 17.512 9.187 7.011 7.267 7.637 49.741 36.192

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents, by country of residence 5.512 1.577 20.312 13.820 11.238 13.466 6.285 19.023 19.181 17.379 13.289 12.845 15.891 14.041 14.738 8.788 6.085 21.981 17.252 16.208 20.972 20.949 20.644 19.814 20.563 15.389 19.885 13.555 8.230 9.644 11.665 10.192 16.785 10.334 6.845 5.399 4.898 46.480 36.596 (continued)

24

The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector…

Table 7 (continued)

Country China China China Denmark Denmark Denmark Denmark Denmark Others Others Others Others Others

Non-resident guests in tourist accommodation establishments, by country of residence Month March 32.628 April 33.747 May 39.492 January 10.620 February 5.958 March 5.933 April 6.587 May 7.233 January 15.183 February 15.519 March 12.663 April 12.464 May 12.360

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents, by country of residence 25.637 30.220 34.082 10.691 4.502 5.526 5.225 5.168 12.422 12.475 9.636 10.010 9.806

Table 11 shows that in a homologous perspective, over the period 2013–2019, rural tourism and housing and local accommodation were where the number of overnight stays increased more on a monthly average (21% and 20%, respectively). Local accommodation offered interesting perspectives for the Portuguese supply and jointly with rural tourism may be important sources of revenues for the several rural contexts where often the economic activity and availability of jobs is scarce. For the year of 2020, from January until May, the more dramatic context, relative to 2019 was for the tourist apartments, hotel-apartments and hotels. The less ­negative monthly average growth rates were found for the “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” (Table 12). The “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” appear, also, as significant alternatives for dealing with the frameworks generated by Covid-19.

3  C  orrelations Between Guests and Overnight Stays and Economic Indicators Table 13 demonstrates that there is a positive and significant correlation between the number of guests and the overnight stays which are stronger for the overnight stays by Portuguese residents. There is, also, a positive and strong correlation between the number of guests and the economic indicators (purchases through automatic payments and national withdrawals at ATMs). This is good news, because the purchases through automatic payments and national withdrawals at ATMs recovered since May and it is expected that the activity in tourism also recovered in a consistent way since May and over, at least, the summer months. There is, in turn, a negative

3 Correlations Between Guests and Overnight Stays and Economic Indicators

25

Table 8  Monthly (from January until May) homologous growth rate (%), for the year 2020, by country of residence (including total)

Country Total Total Total Total Total UK UK UK UK UK Germany Germany Germany Germany Germany Spain Spain Spain Spain Spain France France France France France Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil Brazil USA USA USA USA USA Netherlands Netherlands Netherlands

Month January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March

Non-resident guests in tourist accommodation establishments, by country of residence 11.374 7.760 −62.871 −99.286 −98.271 5.920 5.119 −56.865 −99.612 −99.033 −5.930 0.817 −58.700 −99.550 −98.364 22.816 31.918 −69.858 −99.220 −96.746 −0.378 3.469 −62.448 −99.435 −98.498 9.970 28.464 −57.210 −98.478 −96.859 15.548 10.928 −65.975 −99.669 −99.324 6.896 6.755 −54.095

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents, by country of residence 5.839 9.487 −58.906 −98.905 −98.382 2.230 4.312 −53.744 −99.528 −99.417 −8.904 5.230 −56.006 −99.512 −98.846 24.743 40.812 −68.587 −98.817 −96.196 −4.112 6.748 −61.639 −99.457 −98.961 8.926 28.363 −56.582 −97.104 −96.156 10.511 10.112 −66.808 −99.502 −99.271 1.383 4.876 −47.334 (continued)

26

The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector…

Table 8 (continued)

Country Netherlands Netherlands Ireland Ireland Ireland Ireland Ireland Italy Italy Italy Italy Italy Belgium Belgium Belgium Belgium Belgium Canada Canada Canada Canada Canada Poland Poland Poland Poland Poland Switzerland Switzerland Switzerland Switzerland Switzerland Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden Sweden China China

Month April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February

Non-resident guests in tourist accommodation establishments, by country of residence −99.074 −98.109 4.294 12.107 −58.327 −99.625 −98.990 8.736 −7.023 −80.272 −99.196 −98.138 3.845 10.177 −63.025 −98.789 −98.098 23.627 36.002 −38.215 −99.471 −99.093 −2.787 6.511 −63.604 −99.371 −98.476 5.004 6.561 −66.476 −99.139 −98.277 −11.455 0.915 −62.379 −99.538 −98.136 62.360 −64.630

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents, by country of residence −98.930 −98.526 −3.428 12.657 −58.807 −99.643 −99.376 7.009 −2.503 −77.566 −96.152 −94.898 0.771 16.478 −61.898 −99.062 −98.767 36.836 39.334 −33.521 −99.585 −98.909 −0.057 12.358 −61.671 −98.940 −98.853 3.847 7.176 −64.584 −99.032 −98.404 −11.543 −5.376 −57.625 −99.260 −98.335 54.680 −55.332 (continued)

3 Correlations Between Guests and Overnight Stays and Economic Indicators

27

Table 8 (continued)

Country China China China Denmark Denmark Denmark Denmark Denmark Others Others Others Others Others

Non-resident guests in tourist accommodation establishments, by country of residence Month March −87.335 April −99.545 May −99.443 January −16.502 February 1.957 March −60.487 April −99.105 May −97.713 January 17.965 February 5.925 March −63.622 April −99.002 May −98.134

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents, by country of residence −79.194 −99.183 −98.885 −18.696 1.606 −59.573 −99.502 −98.537 13.863 6.783 −60.676 −97.796 −97.692

Fig. 8  Number of overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment (including total) and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Note: 1, Total; 2, Hospitality; 3, Hotels; 4, Hotels-apartments; 5, “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira”; 6, Tourist apartments; 7, Tourist villages; 8, Local accommodation; 9, Rural tourism and housing

28

The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector…

Table 9  Monthly average (from January until May) growth rate (%), over the period 2013–2019, by type of establishment (including total)

Establishment Total Total Total Total Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist villages Tourist villages Tourist villages Tourist villages Local accommodation Local accommodation Local accommodation Local accommodation Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing

Month February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment 16.472 38.420 25.881 16.774 17.129 39.122 25.522 16.697 14.033 40.314 22.692 16.200 20.792 34.483 28.433 15.939 14.884 39.977 9.848 15.228 35.199 41.675 50.440 23.883 37.171 32.122 33.161 15.563 9.389 32.034 24.675 17.865 32.327 44.307 49.148 15.715

3 Correlations Between Guests and Overnight Stays and Economic Indicators

29

Table 10  Monthly (from January until May) growth rate (%), for the year 2020, by type of establishment (including total)

Establishment Total Total Total Total Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist villages Tourist villages Tourist villages Tourist villages Local accommodation Local accommodation Local accommodation Local accommodation Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing

Month February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment 17.997 −50.499 −91.842 98.063 18.389 −51.128 −94.302 94.605 15.133 −53.307 −94.944 113.112 25.465 −47.851 −95.928 37.467 15.987 −65.065

45.008 −36.375 −87.508 90.328 27.586 −37.525 −89.831 35.772 12.590 −46.033 −80.293 91.079 44.846 −55.641 −80.507 195.474

30

The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector…

Table 11  Monthly average (from January until May) homologous growth rate (%), over the period 2013–2019, by type of establishment (including total)

Establishment Total Total Total Total Total Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist villages Tourist villages Tourist villages Tourist villages Tourist villages Local accommodation Local accommodation Local accommodation Local accommodation

Month January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment 11.211 9.654 8.643 11.898 8.050 9.947 8.389 7.427 10.394 6.707 11.310 9.772 8.757 11.054 8.022 5.319 4.378 3.677 6.472 2.897 11.497 9.166 7.357 12.075 7.647 7.340 5.735 4.239 11.200 4.346 8.190 6.021 5.457 13.916 4.509 20.374 19.411 18.540 22.703 (continued)

4 Conclusions

31

Table 11 (continued)

Establishment Local accommodation Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing

Month May January February March April May

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment 17.610 21.407 18.952 17.773 27.124 19.806

correlation among the number of guests and the average stays, as expected, considering that the average stays are the number of overnight stays per guest. The correlations among the overnight stays and the economic indicators are weaker than those verified for the number of guests. The overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal have a negative correlation with the average stays in tourist accommodation establishments showing that, in general, the national guests stay less time in these accommodation establishments. On average, across NUTS 2 and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 (Table  14), the Portuguese tourism sector had 245,243 guests in tourist ­accommodation establishments who stayed in tourist accommodation e­ stablishments for 666,684 overnights, the large majority by non-residents (467203). These guests have an average stay in tourist accommodation establishments of 3 nights. In turn, the average amount of national purchases through automatic payment was similar to the national withdrawals at ATMs (390 and 312 million euros on average per month, respectively).

4  Conclusions The main objective of this research was to assess the evolution of the tourism sector, in terms of guests and overnight stays, and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic upon these variables related to the demand for the Portuguese tourism supply. For this purpose, various statistical information for the monthly period January 2013– May 2020, obtained from Statistics Portugal, was considered and analysed. These variables were, also, correlated with other economic indicators to assess perspectives for the future. The literature review highlights the importance of destinations such as the Algarve and the city of Lisbon for the tourism sector in Portugal. This literature survey also shows the relevance of the natural, cultural and historic heritage, available in other Portuguese regions, for the dynamics in tourism activities. On the other hand, the importance of demand from British, German, Spanish, French and Italian residents was also highlighted.

32

The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector…

Table 12  Monthly (from January until May) homologous growth rate (%), for the year 2020, by type of establishment (including total) Establishment Total Total Total Total Total Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist villages Tourist villages Tourist villages Tourist villages Tourist villages Local accommodation Local accommodation Local accommodation Local accommodation Local accommodation

Month January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment 7.727 14.762 −58.682 −97.393 −95.274 7.277 13.970 −59.704 −98.206 −96.801 8.763 14.780 −61.517 −98.423 −96.948 4.856 14.159 −56.236 −98.646 −98.282 10.928 24.985 −70.871

−6.206 6.381 −49.753 −96.301 −93.404 4.343 6.741 −47.880 −96.330 −94.993 9.414 16.298 −52.182 −92.877 −87.743 (continued)

4 Conclusions

33

Table 12 (continued) Establishment Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing

Month January February March April May

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment 15.228 39.304 −59.278 −95.136 −86.169

For the Portuguese NUTS 2, AM Lisboa, Norte and Algarve were, on average over the period considered, the regions which contained the most guests in tourist accommodation establishments followed by Centro, RA Madeira, Alentejo and RA Açores. There is still an enormous potential to be exploited in regions such as Centro, Alentejo and RA Açores. However, these guests stayed more time in the Algarve comparative to AM Lisboa and Norte and more time in RA Madeira comparative to Centro, for example. In turn, the foreign residents prefer the tourism supplied in the Portuguese islands compared to some of that supplied on the mainland and the Portuguese residents placed tourism supplied within the mainland as their priority. In general, tourists stayed for more time in RA Madeira, Algarve and RA Açores. Prior to the context of the pandemic, relative to the previous month, for the months January–May (considering the availability of data to compare with 2020) and over the years 2013–2019, on average, Algarve, RA Açores and Alentejo were the regions with higher growth rates, for the number of guests, and RA Madeira with the worst. The framework for the total overnight stays and for the overnight stays by Portuguese residents is not so different to that described for the number of guests. For the non-resident overnight stays RA Açores, Centro, Alentejo and Norte present high growth rates, which is good news for tourism outside Algarve and Lisboa regions. Within the pandemic’s context, AM Lisboa and RA Madeira (and RA Açores when considering the overnight stays by non-residents) were the regions with worse growth rates, showing the vulnerability of this supply to international demand and conditions that allow for human mobility. In homologous terms over the monthly period January 2013–May 2019 RA Açores was the region with higher growth rates, for the number of guests and overnight stays, and Algarve, AM Lisboa and RA Madeira with lower performances for increases in these variables. These were, also, the regions which presented the worst average growth rates, in homologous terms, for the year 2020. It is important to note that the tourism sector exhibited a positive outlook in RA Açores that changed with the pandemic scenario. Considering the country of residence for the period January 2013–May 2020, the results reveal the importance of demand, in terms of number of guests, from residents of UK, Spain, France, Germany, Brazil, USA, Netherlands, Italy and Ireland, however, German tourists tend to stay for longer than the Spanish. Considering only the first 5 months, the demand from Irish and Canadian residents was that which displayed more increases. After the Covid-19 pandemic the higher decreases were verified for demand from China and Italy, precisely the two countries with the worst

Guests in tourist accommodation establishments Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents Average stay in tourist accommodation establishments

1.000

0.8212* (0.000)

0.9788* (0.000)

0.2296* (0.000)

0.8362* (0.000)

0.8005* (0.000)

0.7777* (0.000)

−0.1569* (0.000)

Overnight stays Guests in tourist in tourist accommodation accommodation establishments establishments 1.000

−0.0992* (0.013)

0.6869* (0.000)

1.000

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal

0.3280* (0.000)

1.000

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents

1.000

Average stay in tourist accommodation establishments

National-­ Purchases through automatic payment terminals (€)

Foreign-­ Purchases through automatic payment terminals (€)

Table 13  Matrix of pairwise correlations between several indicators, across NUTS 2 and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020

National withdrawals at ATMs (€)

34 The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector…

0.3129* (0.000)

0.7652* (0.000)

0.2371* (0.000)

0.7365* (0.000)

0.9457* (0.000)

0.6754* (0.000)

Note: *, statistically significant at 5%

National-­ Purchases through automatic payment terminals (€) Foreign-­ purchases through automatic payment terminals (€) National withdrawals at ATMs (€) 0.4316* (0.000)

0.7028* (0.000)

0.4441* (0.000)

0.1471* (0.000)

0.7222* (0.000)

0.2391* (0.000)

1.000

0.7846* (0.000)

0.9567* (0.000)

−0.4905* (0.000)

−0.1486* (0.000)

−0.5418* (0.000)

0.6789* (0.000)

1.000

1.000

4 Conclusions 35

36

The Evolution in Number of Guests and Overnight Stays: Is the Tourism Sector…

Table 14  Summary statistics for several indicators, across NUTS 2 and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Variable Guests in tourist accommodation establishments Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents Average stay in tourist accommodation establishments National-Purchases through automatic payment terminals (€) Foreign-purchases through automatic payment terminals (€) National withdrawals at ATMs (€)

Observations Mean 623 245,243

Standard deviation 197,532

Min 30

Max 821,612

623

666,684

624,110

210

3,427,274

623

199,481

175,851

150

1,262,433

623

467,203

490,092

60

2,199,162

623

3

2

1

22

623

390,000,000 366,000,000 34,800,000 1,520,000,000

623

49,900,000

623

312,000,000 275,000,000 29,200,000 951,000,000

53,500,000

1,106,767

270,000,000

context at the beginning of the pandemic. Curiously, China was the market with greater increase in the homologous demand over the period 2013–2019. For the type of establishments, the tourist preferred hotels, hotel-apartments and local accommodation over the 2013–2020 period. For the first 5 months over the period 2013–2019, rural tourism and housing appear amongst the accommodation establishments having greater growth rates. After the pandemic rural tourism and housing accommodation are those with better performance for the month of May. The analysis in homologous terms supports this interesting perspective for rural tourism. Finally, the correlations between the number of guests and the number of overnight stays and other economic variables show that there has been an interesting outlook for the tourism sector in Portugal since May, however, of course, not for the levels of 2019. Acknowledgments  This work is funded by National Funds through the FCT – Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P., within the scope of the project Refª UIDB/00681/2020. Furthermore we would like to thank the CERNAS Research Centre and the Polytechnic Institute of Viseu for their support.

References

37

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The Main Changes in Tourism Revenues: There Are Alternatives?

Abstract  The competitiveness of the tourism sector in Portugal is crucial for economic performance in the Portuguese context. The new paradigms created by the pandemic have compromised this competitiveness and the alternatives are, for now, not well perceived or understood by the several stakeholders. For example, the possibility of reconverting employees from the tourism sector into the social sector was not well received by the various key players involved. To better support the design of new policies, namely to find alternatives for the unemployment that will be created by the Covid-19 pandemic, the objective of this study is to present a perspective of tourism revenue before and after the pandemic. The main outcomes suggest that it will be urgent to find new alternatives of business and employment in order to mitigate the impacts from these new paradigms, due to the decrease across the several dimensions of revenue which has been accentuated and the perspectives for the summer months are not promising enough to overcome the dramatic context created. Keywords  Panel data · Tourism competitiveness · NUTS 2 · Type of establishment · Matrices of correlation

1  Introduction The tourism sector is interrelated with other dimensions of society and the economy at both a national and international level (Pacheco 2016). For example, the insecurity verified in some Arabic countries favoured the demand for tourism in some European countries (Alvarez-Diaz et al. 2015), such as Spain or Portugal. Another aspect is related to the specific conditions of each country, such as the price indexes or exchange rates, for instance (Patsouratis et al. 2005). Portugal has enormous potential to increase its revenue from tourism, with more territorial cohesion, innovation and entrepreneurship (Araujo 2017) that would allow for the further exploration of some niche markets like those from the © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 V. J. P. D. Martinho, Economics of Tourism in Portugal, SpringerBriefs in Economics, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-65200-5_2

39

40

The Main Changes in Tourism Revenues: There Are Alternatives?

Portuguese islands (Baldacchino and Duarte Ferreira 2013). New technologies related to smart territories are a factors to take into account in these frameworks (Flores Ruiz et al. 2018). In any case, in Portugal, tourism has been the engine of the economy, generating significant revenue and contributing significantly to the GDP (Bailoa and Cravo 2020). Some events, such as the EURO 2004, have provided their contributions, at least in the short to –medium-term, in promoting the image of Portugal and to attract more revenue from tourism (Balsas 2018). However, there are also other smaller events which are perceived as having their importance in generating revenue and having an impact on the socioeconomic dynamics (Borges et al. 2018). The marketing strategies using national/international events, or local occurrences/resources such as the Nazaré big waves (Cunha-e-Sa et  al. 2018) and the navigability of the Portuguese Douro river (Gouveia et al. 2017), are crucial towards promoting tourism. In fact, the endogenous resources may benefit from tourism and contribute to its promotion, however these effective interrelationships depend on the local communities and stakeholders (Luz 2017). Nonetheless, for an effective promotion, what is needed are adjusted strategic plans (da Camara Correia and Sebastiao 2017) and policies which are designed by taking into account the specific realities (Lopes and Soares 2017). In strategic plans for tourism, the standards of accommodation have a determinant influence and should be taken into account, where hotels have their place. The marketing plans for rural tourism are, also, crucial for the performance of the sector, however considering its scale this is not always well considered (Pato and Kastenholz 2017). The realities of the various hotels can diverge between regions and countries and their profitability depends on various internal factors such as the cash flow, total assets, labour productivity, size and age (Dimitric et al. 2019). The hotel’s location and other specific conditions such as the existence of sports facilities are other determinant variables that influence a hotel’s performance (Oliveira et al. 2013). For example, golf has, for a long time, proven its importance in tourism supply and its revenue (Rebanal Martinez 2019). The revenue of the entire tourism sector in Portugal depends on the capacity to attract demand from countries with higher incomes. This depends, also, on the capacity to create the right conditions for the national lower income sector of families to also benefit from leisure and tourism (Lima et  al. 2018). Indeed, in some circumstances, tourism is a luxury service (Serra et al. 2014). Nevertheless, on a smaller scale tourism revenue, in some circumstances, contributes more to improvements in the income of the operators rather than for changes in the social position or status (Mendonsa 1983). To deal with the vulnerability of tourism revenue to several negative impacts it is important to diversify the supply and, thus, increase the competitiveness (Pletikosa 2015). Here new activities may bring about relevant contributions, such as marine or pesca-tourism (Piasecki et al. 2016), touristic fishing (Vieira and Antunes 2017), cultural ecosystem services (Vaz et al. 2018) and ecotourism (Vaz et al. 2019). Considering the contexts described before, the main objective of this study is to assess the evolution of the revenue in tourism in Portugal and its vulnerability to the

2 Data Analysis

41

Covid-19 pandemic. For this data from Statistics Portugal (INE 2020)was considered which was first described and later interrelated with other economic indicators, considering the Stata software procedures (StataCorp. 2017a, b; Stata 2020).

2  Data Analysis In this section statistical information disaggregated by NUTS 2 and by type of establishment will be considered and analysed.

2.1  Statistical Information Disaggregated by NUTS 2 The AM Lisboa, on average for the period January 2013–May 2020, is the region with the most total revenue from tourist accommodation establishments, followed by the Algarve, the Norte, the RA Madeira, the Centro, the Alentejo and the RA Açores (Fig. 1). The same occurs for the revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments (Fig.  2). For the revenue per available room

Fig. 1  Distribution of total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments (103 euros), by NUTS 2 (including total) and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Note: 1, Total; 2, Norte; 3, Centro; 4, AM Lisboa; 5, Alentejo; 6, Algarve; 7, RA Açores; 8, RA Madeira.

42

The Main Changes in Tourism Revenues: There Are Alternatives?

Fig. 2  Distribution of revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments (103 euros), by NUTS 2 (including total) and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Note: 1, Total; 2, Norte; 3, Centro; 4, AM Lisboa; 5, Alentejo; 6, Algarve; 7, RA Açores; 8, RA Madeira.

(RevPAR) in tourist accommodation establishments (Fig. 3), the decreasing order is the following: the AM Lisboa; the RA Madeira; the Algarve; the Norte; the RA Açores; the Alentejo and the Centro. The results for this last variable show that The AM Lisboa, the RA Madeira and the Algarve are where the income per room is higher (Fig. 3). Figure 4, for the net bed occupancy rate in tourist accommodation establishments, reveals that this indicator is higher and above the total average in the RA Madeira, the AM Lisboa and the Algarve (59%, 53% and 43%, respectively, on average by month). Considering the monthly average (from January until May) growth rate (%), over the period 2013–2019, by NUTS 2 (Table 1), the higher values, for the total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments, were found for the Algarve, the RA Açores and the Alentejo (52%, 38% and 27%, respectively, on average per month over the period considered). The total average was 27%. The context for the revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments was similar. RA Madeira, the Centro and the Norte had the worst average growth rates and AM Lisboa appears in an intermediate position. For the revenue per available room (RevPAR) in tourist accommodation establishments AM Lisboa appears before the

2 Data Analysis

43

Fig. 3  Distribution of revenue per available room (RevPAR) in tourist accommodation establishments (euros), by NUTS 2 (including total) and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Note: 1, Total; 2, Norte; 3, Centro; 4, AM Lisboa; 5, Alentejo; 6, Algarve; 7, RA Açores; 8, RA Madeira.

Alentejo, showing that AM Lisboa comparative to the Alentejo increased its income per room more than for global revenues. The RA Açores, the Algarve, the Alentejo and the Centro were the regions with higher average growth rates for the net bed occupancy rate. In the first 5 months of 2020 (Table 2), the worst situations for the total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments and revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments were verified in RA Madeira and AM Lisboa (with −37% and − 18%, respectively, on average per month for the total revenue). The total average was −4% for the total revenue. The results for revenue per available room (RevPAR) in tourist accommodation establishments show that, on average, the incomes decreased in all Portuguese regions, but that the worst context was that of the islands. The touristic supply most dependent on conditions of human mobility was that which was most affected. A similar tendency was found for net bed occupancy rate in tourist accommodation establishments, but here the more negative growth rates were found in the RA Açores and the Centro. In a homologous perspective for the monthly average (from January until May) over the period 2013–2019, by NUTS 2, the growth rates for the global revenue

44

The Main Changes in Tourism Revenues: There Are Alternatives?

Fig. 4  Distribution of net bed occupancy rate in tourist accommodation establishments (%), by NUTS 2 (including total) and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Note: 1, Total; 2, Norte; 3, Centro; 4, AM Lisboa; 5, Alentejo; 6, Algarve; 7, RA Açores; 8, RA Madeira.

(Table 3) were higher for the RA Açores, the Norte, the Alentejo and AM Lisboa (20%, 18%, 17% and 16%, respectively, on average per month for the total revenue). The income per room increased, on average per month, 13% in the Norte and the RA Açores and 11% in the Alentejo and AM Lisboa. The total average was 10%. The net bed occupancy rate increased more, on average, in the RA Açores (10%), the Alentejo, the Norte and the Centro (6%). The RA Açores, the Norte and the Alentejo appeared here with good perspectives of growth. In turn, the Centro has an interesting performance in the net bed occupancy, which could be better reflected in terms of revenue. For 2020 and in homologous terms, Table 4 reveals that the total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments decreased more, on average, in AM Lisboa (−50%) and in RA Madeira (−48%). The total average was −47%. The framework for the revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments was similar. For the revenue per available room, the monthly average growth rates were  −  48% for AM Lisboa, −47% for the RA Açores, −46% for RA Madeira and − 45% in total. The worst context for the net bed occupancy was verified in RA Açores (−48% on average), followed by AM Lisboa and RA Madeira.

2 Data Analysis

45

Table 1  Monthly average (from January until May) growth rate (%), over the period 2013–2019, by NUTS 2 (including total)

NUTS 2 Total Total Total Total Norte Norte Norte Norte Centro Centro Centro Centro AM Lisboa AM Lisboa AM Lisboa AM Lisboa Alentejo Alentejo Alentejo Alentejo Algarve Algarve Algarve Algarve RA Açores RA Açores RA Açores

Month February March April May February March April May February March April May February

Total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments 10.691 42.015 30.878 24.586 5.627 31.940 27.976 25.558 11.100 27.569 22.777 23.814 2.960

Revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments 10.352 44.431 33.918 25.427 6.075 34.865 30.169 25.822 14.234 27.134 24.951 22.225 3.591

Revenue per available room (RevPAR) in tourist accommodation establishments 17.415 24.954 30.437 18.400 15.363 19.068 30.991 19.276 22.769 10.125 25.411 15.050 13.534

Net bed occupancy rate in tourist accommodation establishments 23.467 19.183 21.298 10.259 17.947 18.007 23.906 9.687 30.967 16.109 22.352 9.448 16.699

March

42.586

45.618

30.875

24.744

April

24.967

28.653

31.923

18.809

May

24.443

26.173

20.521

7.138

February March April May February March April May February

10.576 39.443 39.331 13.884 44.059 68.417 61.403 34.008 15.897

13.445 42.046 44.167 12.466 41.081 70.566 66.778 36.678 15.704

21.121 22.780 40.974 6.016 39.883 38.956 48.307 28.218 25.582

28.913 22.224 28.552 4.199 41.804 23.494 30.642 17.402 30.293

March

46.355

46.911

29.268

34.173

April

53.580

58.344

52.351

37.720 (continued)

The Main Changes in Tourism Revenues: There Are Alternatives?

46 Table 1 (continued)

NUTS 2 RA Açores RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira

Month May February

Total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments 34.930

Revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments 38.313

Revenue per available room (RevPAR) in tourist accommodation establishments 30.352

Net bed occupancy rate in tourist accommodation establishments 15.381

6.765

4.559

14.979

18.957

March

31.413

34.667

19.177

8.206

April

9.885

11.156

12.234

7.882

May

9.335

6.255

−0.676

2.970

2.2  S  tatistical Information Disaggregated by Type of Establishment The total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 (Fig. 5) was higher, on average, in the hotels, followed by, respectively, the hotel-apartments, local accommodation, tourist apartments, touristic villages, rural tourism and housing and, finally, “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira”. The framework for the revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments (Fig. 6) is similar. Table 5 presents that on a monthly average (from January until May) over the period 2013–2019, the growth rates for the total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments and revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments were similar and higher for the tourist apartments, tourist villages and rural tourism and housing, followed, respectively, by the hotel-apartments, hotels, local accommodation and “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira”. The performances for rural tourism and housing open up to good perspectives for the Portuguese rural regions. Table 6 presents that in the first 5 months of 2020, on average, the worse scenario was verified for the “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” (−28%, on average per month, for the total revenue), hotel-apartments (−21% for the total revenue), touristic villages and hospitality (−7% for the total revenue). The performances for hotel-­ apartments and “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira”, in terms of revenue, were not the best and seem to have worsened with the pandemic.

2 Data Analysis

47

Table 2  Monthly (from January until May) growth rate (%), for the year 2020, by NUTS 2 (including total)

NUTS 2 Total Total Total Total Norte Norte Norte Norte Centro Centro Centro Centro AM Lisboa AM Lisboa AM Lisboa AM Lisboa Alentejo Alentejo Alentejo Alentejo Algarve Algarve Algarve Algarve RA Açores RA Açores RA Açores

Month February March April May February March April May February March April May February

Total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments 11.399 −48.976 −94.899 116.898 3.737 −57.932 −91.878 165.826 16.244 −60.036 −91.487 168.647 2.803

Revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments 11.358 −48.203 −93.735 112.710 6.587 −56.716 −90.505 155.596 21.703 −61.672 −88.859 146.620 1.784

Revenue per available room (RevPAR) in tourist accommodation establishments 14.232 −48.875 −69.960 40.234 11.220 −54.891 −59.962 42.565 26.932 −62.293 −52.034 17.978 6.841

Net bed occupancy rate in tourist accommodation establishments 21.122 −51.170 −60.786 29.728 13.903 −55.151 −41.167 29.385 31.896 −62.259 −37.346 −3.375 9.518

March

−52.431

−50.641

−50.068

−53.779

April

−93.814

−93.035

−74.921

−66.057

May

70.698

72.936

55.233

51.629

February March April May February March April May February

18.118 −58.286 −83.818 159.900 45.430 −32.453 −97.566 102.000 20.310

21.367 −56.821 −80.838 162.641 43.061 −29.917 −96.610 99.656 19.376

20.281 −53.100 −50.128 57.172 36.767 −35.240 −80.464 54.676 27.118

30.422 −52.797 −42.053 50.680 45.173 −43.315 −69.587 22.075 28.949

March

−40.220

−36.796

−38.251

−45.081

April

−99.712

−99.639

−82.314

−82.928 (continued)

The Main Changes in Tourism Revenues: There Are Alternatives?

48 Table 2 (continued)

NUTS 2 RA Açores RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira

Month May February

Total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments 239.911

Revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments 198.322

Revenue per available room (RevPAR) in tourist accommodation establishments −10.183

Net bed occupancy rate in tourist accommodation establishments −3.681

14.988

19.726

7.303

7.075

March

−39.314

−39.848

−43.512

−47.478

April

−99.440

−99.186

−67.947

−71.719

May

−15.501

−15.148

−2.405

55.898

The monthly average (from January until May) homologous growth rate (%), over the period 2013–2019, by type of establishment (including total), for the global revenue in tourist accommodation establishments (total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment and revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment) have grown more in rural tourism and housing, “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” and local accommodation (all above the total average that was 5% for the total revenue and 7% the revenue for tourist accommodation establishments) (Table 7). Table 8 confirms, in homologous terms, the dramatic scenario for the beginning of 2020 that was worse in hotels and hotel-apartments for both total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment and revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment. The context in the “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” and in rural tourism and housing was less dramatic.

3  I nterrelationships Between the Tourism Revenues and Some Economic Indicators There are strong, positive and significant correlations between the revenues (total revenue and revenue form accommodation in tourist establishments) and the revenue per available room (Table 9). There are, also, positive and significant (but not so strong) correlations among the revenues and the net bed occupancy rate (coefficient around 0.6).

3 Interrelationships Between the Tourism Revenues and Some Economic Indicators

49

Table 3  Monthly average (from January until May) homologous growth rate (%), over the period 2013–2019, by NUTS 2 (including total)

Total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments NUTS 2 Month Total January 14.353 Total February 12.884 Total March 13.027 Total April 15.561 Total May 13.534 Norte January 16.498 Norte February 15.775 Norte March 16.962 Norte April 20.339 Norte May 18.088 Centro January 14.027 Centro February 11.228 Centro March 11.384 Centro April 16.076 Centro May 14.176 AM January 16.381 Lisboa AM February 14.931 Lisboa AM March 15.864 Lisboa AM April 16.144 Lisboa AM May 14.644 Lisboa Alentejo January 15.003 Alentejo February 16.664 Alentejo March 13.956 Alentejo April 19.964 Alentejo May 18.104 Algarve January 12.604 Algarve February 10.438 Algarve March 10.426 Algarve April 16.765

Revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments 15.366 14.002 14.327 17.211 14.788 18.153 17.327 18.858 22.513 19.891 14.696 12.339 12.024 18.312 14.828 17.842

Revenue per available room (RevPAR) in tourist accommodation establishments 10.582 9.193 9.169 11.688 9.701 12.060 11.208 12.364 15.053 13.279 10.107 8.095 7.378 12.775 10.201 11.413

Net bed occupancy rate in tourist accommodation establishments 6.290 4.781 3.376 6.261 2.966 7.714 6.418 6.175 8.875 5.546 7.660 4.549 3.194 8.883 5.635 6.519

16.242

9.951

5.625

17.480

10.953

4.004

18.159

11.044

4.348

16.181

9.689

1.936

15.126 16.516 15.026 22.002 18.703 11.486 10.982 10.839 17.540

9.439 10.037 8.470 14.300 11.992 9.113 7.883 6.738 13.338

9.156 6.959 5.148 9.970 6.389 5.240 3.958 1.729 8.376 (continued)

The Main Changes in Tourism Revenues: There Are Alternatives?

50 Table 3 (continued)

NUTS 2 Algarve RA Açores RA Açores RA Açores RA Açores RA Açores RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira

Revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments 13.494 20.066

Revenue per available room (RevPAR) in tourist accommodation establishments 9.512 12.623

Net bed occupancy rate in tourist accommodation establishments 3.095 14.204

February 18.920

18.748

10.956

10.869

March

20.250

20.966

12.856

9.964

April

20.681

21.809

14.067

8.514

May

18.655

19.797

11.766

5.555

January

10.383

11.298

8.034

3.899

February

8.863

9.320

6.122

2.197

March

7.940

8.417

6.103

2.376

April

6.279

7.032

5.284

0.981

May

5.796

6.579

4.544

−0.658

Month May January

Total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments 12.779 19.210

There are still positive and significant correlations (albeit with coefficients of around 0.5 or below) between the revenues and the economic indicators (medium value of bank valuation and constitution and dissolution of legal persons and similar entities). The stronger relationships are found with the medium value of bank valuations and constitution of legal persons and similar entities. A similar pattern was revealed for the revenue per available room and for the net bed occupancy rate. These interrelationships show the importance of economic dynamics for the performance of the tourism sector and in the short term it will prove difficult to find alternatives to these tourism activities, namely to absorb the unemployment that will be created. In any case, sectors which maintain their vitality, such as the agri-food and social sectors may be able to offer interesting alternatives. In turn, it may be important to design policies that promote innovation and entrepreneurship within the sector in order to bring about more dynamics to the related activities.

3 Interrelationships Between the Tourism Revenues and Some Economic Indicators

51

Table 4  Monthly (from January until May) homologous growth rate (%), for the year 2020, by NUTS 2 (including total)

Total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments NUTS 2 Month Total January 6.917 Total February 13.428 Total March −59.884 Total April −98.476 Total May −97.229 Norte January 15.566 Norte February 15.313 Norte March −64.178 Norte April −97.788 Norte May −95.281 Centro January 10.081 Centro February 25.250 Centro March −62.496 Centro April −97.522 Centro May −94.225 AM January 4.991 Lisboa AM February 7.548 Lisboa AM March −65.309 Lisboa AM April −98.214 Lisboa AM May −97.417 Lisboa Alentejo January 26.759 Alentejo February 35.515 Alentejo March −57.699 Alentejo April −95.442 Alentejo May −89.687 Algarve January 1.196 Algarve February 17.226 Algarve March −52.284 Algarve April −99.370

Revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments 8.259 15.535 −59.705 −98.182 −96.756 14.393 18.515 −63.627 −97.442 −94.709 11.952 27.940 −63.114 −96.948 −93.215 6.686

Revenue per available room (RevPAR) in tourist accommodation establishments 3.986 6.278 −56.997 −90.426 −88.175 6.776 5.942 −61.244 −88.435 −86.114 7.701 17.452 −60.986 −85.884 −84.200 3.879

Net bed occupancy rate in tourist accommodation establishments 2.856 5.265 −55.667 −86.097 −82.670 6.530 7.270 −59.894 −81.167 −76.920 6.374 16.662 −62.093 −81.543 −82.713 5.174

8.500

0.812

−0.396

−65.105

−63.315

−62.300

−98.052

−92.760

−88.875

−97.160

−90.157

−83.675

30.412 46.342 −55.641 −94.650 −87.368 6.794 20.823 −49.508 −99.126

20.146 25.072 −51.475 −84.134 −76.511 5.964 15.619 −42.670 −93.634

3.897 19.758 −52.031 −79.447 −69.745 1.096 9.500 −45.116 −88.698 (continued)

The Main Changes in Tourism Revenues: There Are Alternatives?

52 Table 4 (continued)

NUTS 2 Algarve RA Açores RA Açores RA Açores RA Açores RA Açores RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira RA Madeira

Month May January

Total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments −98.939 12.093

February 15.902

Revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments −98.561 11.739 17.171

Revenue per available room (RevPAR) in tourist accommodation establishments −91.423 2.587

Net bed occupancy rate in tourist accommodation establishments −86.838 0.246

5.606

4.372

March

−53.840

−51.609

−50.329

−54.821

April

−99.916

−99.897

−94.694

−94.359

May

−99.779

−99.766

−96.130

−94.996

January

0.362

−1.239

−6.016

−5.395

February

8.769

10.071

0.523

−1.050

March

−49.309

−50.309

−52.152

−52.310

April

−99.724

−99.611

−85.641

−86.775

May

−99.800

−99.715

−87.096

−79.790

Table 10 shows that, on average over the Portuguese NUTS 2 and the monthly period considered, the total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments was 36,069 thousand euros and the revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments was 26,490 thousand euros. The revenue per available room (RevPAR) in tourist accommodation establishments was 34 euros, on average, and the net bed occupancy rate in tourist accommodation establishments 41%. The medium value of bank valuations was 876 euros/m2. In turn, for the accommodation sector, on an average monthly basis, 13 entities were created whilst 3 disappeared. In accommodation, catering and similar, 53 entities were formed and 32 disappeared and for all the sectors 454 were created and 284 dissolved. The ­constitution of entities in the accommodation sector corresponds to 3% of the total and in the accommodation, catering and similar to 12% of the total.

4 Conclusions

53

Fig. 5  Distribution of total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments (103 euros), by type of establishment (including total) and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Note: 1, Total; 2, Hospitality; 3, Hotels; 4, Hotels-apartments; 5, “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira”; 6, Tourist apartments; 7, Tourist villages; 8, Local accommodation; 9, Rural tourism and housing.

4  Conclusions The main objective of this study was to analyse the evolution of the revenue in touristic accommodation establishments by NUTS 2 and by type of establishment over the monthly period January 2013 – May 2020 and to evaluate the impacts from the Covid-19 pandemic in these contexts. The correlations between these variables and other economic indicators were also analysed so as to assess the perspectives for the tourism sector in these current frameworks and to suggest alternatives. The literature review highlights the interrelationships between the tourism sector and the several socioeconomic dimensions and its vulnerability to national and international impacts. Portugal has enormous potential to improve tourism revenues through innovation and entrepreneurship, where new technologies of information and communication may provide an interesting contribution. Tourism over the last few years has been one of the main driving forces for the Portuguese economy and

54

The Main Changes in Tourism Revenues: There Are Alternatives?

Fig. 6  Distribution of revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments (103 euros), by type of establishment (including total) and over the monthly period January 2013– May 2020 Note: 1, Total; 2, Hospitality; 3, Hotels; 4, Hotels-apartments; 5, “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira”; 6, Tourist apartments; 7, Tourist villages; 8, Local accommodation; 9, Rural tourism and housing.

may play a crucial role towards territorial cohesion through an effective promotion of the endogenous resources, where rural tourism, for example, may bring about relevant outcomes. At NUTS 2 level, AM Lisboa, the Algarve, the Norte and RA Madeira were the Portuguese regions, on average, with greater total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments over the period January 2013 – May 2020. In turn, the Centro, the Alentejo and the RA Açores are the regions with less revenue, but have vast potential and resources to be explored. With the revenue per available room, RA Madeira has had better performance than the Algarve and the Norte, and the Centro worse comparative to the RA Açores and the Alentejo. The Centro region needs to create the right conditions in order to improve the income per room. The net bed occupancy was higher in the regions with mass tourism (RA Madeira, AM Lisboa and the Algarve). In terms of average growth rates, relative to the previous month, for the period January 2013  – May 2019, the total revenue has grown more in the Algarve, the RA Açores and the Alentejo. The Centro is amongst the worst regions in terms of average growth rates. There are good perspectives here for the RA

4 Conclusions

55

Table 5  Monthly average (from January until May) growth rate (%), over the period 2013–2019, by type of establishment (including total)

Establishment Total Total Total Total Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist villages Tourist villages Tourist villages Tourist villages Local accommodation Local accommodation

Month February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February

Total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment 10.691 42.015 30.878 24.586 11.076 42.406 30.664 24.662 8.757 42.677 29.345 24.631 22.639 41.025 32.212 22.948 13.747

Revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment 10.352 44.431 33.918 25.427 10.677 44.895 33.637 25.721 8.676 44.901 32.513 25.474 18.260 45.744 34.846 25.021 16.132

March

39.025

42.668

April

17.841

18.435

May

21.390

21.452

February March April May February March April May February

22.597 49.033 52.862 34.232 26.785 38.421 53.812 24.375 4.872

28.785 50.587 52.058 36.270 20.624 38.665 56.206 25.205 5.468

March

36.152

38.697 (continued)

The Main Changes in Tourism Revenues: There Are Alternatives?

56 Table 5 (continued)

Establishment Local accommodation Local accommodation Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing

Month April

Total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment 28.254

Revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment 31.570

May

24.651

23.315

February 14.672

16.634

March

47.497

50.312

April

49.197

54.509

May

22.342

22.423

Table 6  Monthly (since January until May) growth rate (%), for the year 2020, by type of establishment (including total)

Establishment Total Total Total Total Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira”

Month February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February

Total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment 11.399 −48.976 −94.899 116.898 11.147 −49.485 −96.124 106.446 9.607 −50.896 −96.444 120.152 19.282 −43.260 −95.000 33.935 8.176

Revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment 11.358 −48.203 −93.735 112.710 11.051 −48.829 −95.278 106.854 9.329 −50.341 −95.745 120.980 18.991 −43.373 −93.162 31.657 10.977

March

−63.095

−60.528 (continued)

4 Conclusions

57

Table 6 (continued)

Establishment “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist villages Tourist villages Tourist villages Tourist villages Local accommodation Local accommodation Local accommodation Local accommodation Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing

Total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment

Revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment

February March April May February March April May February

38.472 −34.665 −91.935 127.287 8.931 −33.912 −95.217 68.313 8.208

37.959 −35.452 −91.216 142.834 9.455 −31.517 −94.018 62.520 8.478

March

−42.667

−41.582

April

−85.575

−84.329

May

112.253

99.382

35.738

37.647

March

−52.580

−53.669

April

−87.476

−84.778

May

259.361

243.726

Month April May

February

Açores and the Alentejo, yet the Centro region needs to analyse its strategy, because it is among the regions which have higher growth rates for the net bed occupancy rate. The pandemic context changed these frameworks, but the worst contexts occurred in the regions which depend the most on the right conditions for human mobility, such as AM Lisboa and the islands. In homologous terms, before the pandemic, the perspectives were good for the RA Açores, the Norte, the Alentejo and AM Lisboa.

The Main Changes in Tourism Revenues: There Are Alternatives?

58

Table 7  Monthly average (from January until May) homologous growth rate (%), over the period 2013–2019, by type of establishment (including total)

Establishment Total Total Total Total Total Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist villages Tourist villages

Month January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January

Total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment 13.971 14.368 2.551 −2.504 −3.457 13.389 13.718 2.008 −3.183 −4.111 14.077 14.281 2.532 −2.835 −3.551 8.603 10.680 −1.277 −5.636 −7.136 15.761

February 16.412

Revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment 15.383 16.167 4.120 −0.968 −2.061 14.556 15.268 3.320 −1.886 −2.918 15.570 16.090 4.030 −1.464 −2.189 7.718 10.408 −1.354 −5.120 −6.495 17.800 18.366

March

0.107

2.280

April

13.802

17.257

May

13.328

15.268

January February March April May January February

12.083 13.802 3.544 −2.088 −4.548 11.016 9.543

16.071 15.586 4.767 −0.339 −4.115 10.011 9.296 (continued)

4 Conclusions

59

Table 7 (continued)

Establishment Tourist villages Tourist villages Tourist villages Local accommodation Local accommodation Local accommodation Local accommodation Local accommodation Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing Rural tourism and housing

Month March April May January

Total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment 3.049 −2.049 −5.501 19.604

Revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment 4.224 −1.940 −5.432 22.390

February 20.030

23.185

March

8.316

11.956

April

3.947

7.394

May

2.407

5.166

23.756

28.007

February 28.880

33.415

March

10.738

12.460

April

10.149

11.583

May

8.309

9.619

January

For the type of establishments, the total revenues were higher, on average for hotels and local accommodation establishments. In turn, despite the average lower values for rural tourism and housing and “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira”, the growth rates obtained, including those after the pandemic, have created great prospects for these types of establishments. The interrelationships between the total revenues in the touristic accommodation establishments and some economic indicators confirm that the tourism sector in Portugal is correlated with the economic dynamics, namely in terms of business creation. To deal with this context, it is recommended that policy instruments are designed to promote the innovation and entrepreneurship as a support for the creation of new business and employment within the new paradigms created by the pandemic.

The Main Changes in Tourism Revenues: There Are Alternatives?

60

Table 8  Monthly (from January until May) homologous growth rate (%), for the year 2020, by type of establishment (including total)

Establishment Total Total Total Total Total Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hospitality Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments Hotels-apartments “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” “Pousadas e Quintas Madeira” Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments Tourist apartments

Month January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January

Total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment 6.917 13.428 −59.884 −98.476 −97.229 6.237 12.524 −60.524 −98.852 −98.020 6.395 12.270 −61.766 −98.950 −98.084 3.904 14.583 −55.771 −98.423 −98.204 3.712

February 10.289

Revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment 8.259 15.535 −59.705 −98.182 −96.756 7.641 14.753 −60.512 −98.646 −97.660 7.741 14.800 −61.845 −98.783 −97.774 6.221 14.787 −56.480 −97.979 −97.753 4.751 10.264

−72.763

−72.046

January 2.404 February 23.677 March −44.786 April −97.572

4.267 24.962 −46.312 −97.395

March April May

(continued)

4 Conclusions

61

Table 8 (continued) Total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment Establishment Month Tourist apartments May −95.320 Tourist villages January 15.928 Tourist villages February 4.074 Tourist villages March −43.559 Tourist villages April −98.601 Tourist villages May −97.758 Local January 13.158 accommodation Local February 17.722 accommodation Local March −53.278 accommodation Local April −95.150 accommodation Local May −91.332 accommodation Rural tourism and January 11.219 housing Rural tourism and February 34.596 housing Rural tourism and March −58.887 housing Rural tourism and April −96.682 housing Rural tourism and May −89.068 housing

Revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments, by type of establishment −94.634 15.270 5.831 −40.431 −98.231 −97.212 12.339 16.572 −52.973 −94.860 −91.303 14.009 41.599 −58.555 −96.078 −87.749

0.8566* (0.000)

0.6316* (0.000)

0.5619* (0.000)

0.9977* (0.000)

0.8515* (0.000)

Revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments

Revenue per available room (RevPAR) in tourist accommodation establishments

Net bed 0.6448* occupancy rate in (0.000) tourist accommodation establishments

0.5799* Total-median (0.000) value of bank valuation (€ / m2)

1.000

1.000

Total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments

0.4636* (0.000)

0.8879* (0.000)

1.000

Revenue per Revenue from available room Total revenue in accommodation (RevPAR) in tourist in tourist tourist accommodation accommodation accommodation establishments establishments establishments

0.3562* (0.000)

1.000

Net bed occupancy rate in tourist accommodation establishments

1.000

Total-­ Median value of bank valuation (€ / m2) AccommodationConstitution of legal persons and similar entities (N.°) AccommodationDissolution of legal persons and similar entities (N.°)

Accommodation, catering and similarConstitution of legal persons and similar entities (N.°) Accommodation, catering and similarDissolution of legal persons and similar entities (N.°)

Table 9  Matrix of pairwise correlations between several indicators, across NUTS 2 and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Total-­ Constitution of legal persons and similar entities (N.°)

Total-­ Dissolution of legal persons and similar entities (N.°)

0.1718* (0.000)

0.3702* (0.000)

0.1753* (0.000)

0.3350* (0.000)

0.1414* (0.000)

Accommodation- 0.1725* dissolution of (0.000) legal persons and similar entities (N.°)

0.3637* (0.000)

0.1779* (0.000)

Accommodation, catering and similarconstitution of legal persons and similar entities (N.°)

Accommodation, catering and similardissolution of legal persons and similar entities (N.°)

Total-­constitution 0.3247* of legal persons (0.000) and similar entities (N.°)

Total-dissolution of legal persons and similar entities (N.°)

Note: *, statistically significant at 5%

0.1428* (0.000)

0.4111* (0.000)

Accommodation- 0.4022* constitution of (0.000) legal persons and similar entities (N.°)

0.044 (0.269)

0.2142* (0.000)

0.071 (0.076)

0.2386* (0.000)

0.025 (0.538)

0.3180* (0.000)

0.1374* (0.001)

−0.006 (0.875)

−0.056 (0.165)

0.047 (0.241)

−0.039 (0.337)

0.012 (0.762)

0.1575* (0.000)

0.1229* (0.002)

−0.1302* (0.001)

0.046 (0.247)

0.2435* (0.000)

0.1127* (0.005)

0.4916* (0.000)

0.8155* (0.000)

0.5026* (0.000)

0.8685* (0.000)

0.5392* (0.000)

1.000

0.7056* (0.000)

0.6394* (0.000)

0.7339* (0.000)

0.6213* (0.000)

1.000

0.6691* (0.000)

0.9667* (0.000)

0.6653* (0.000)

1.000

0.9819* (0.000)

0.6562* (0.000)

1.000

0.6702* (0.000)

1.000

1.000

64

The Main Changes in Tourism Revenues: There Are Alternatives?

Table 10  Summary statistics for several indicators, across NUTS 2 and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Variable Total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments Revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments Revenue per available room (RevPAR) in tourist accommodation establishments Net bed occupancy rate in tourist accommodation establishments Total-median value of bank valuation (€ / m 2) Accommodation-constitution of legal persons and similar entities (N.°) Accommodation-dissolution of legal persons and similar entities (N.°) Accommodation, catering and similar-­ constitution of legal persons and similar entities (N.°) Accommodation, catering and similar-­ dissolution of legal persons and similar entities (N.° Total-constitution of legal persons and similar entities (N.°) Total-dissolution of legal persons and similar entities (N.°)

Standard Observations Mean deviation 623 36,069 39,404

Min Max 7 264,818

623

26,490 31,026

7

212,646

623

34

22

2

130

623

41

19

2

82

623

876

206

596 1512

623

13

12

0

70

623

3

3

0

22

623

53

48

0

213

623

32

43

0

312

623

454

475

12

2379

623

284

404

3

2819

Acknowledgments  This work is funded by National Funds through the FCT - Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P., within the scope of the project Refª UIDB/00681/2020. Furthermore we would like to thank the CERNAS Research Centre and the Polytechnic Institute of Viseu for their support.

References Alvarez-Diaz M, Gonzalez-Gomez M, Soledad Otero-Giraldez M, Belen Trigo-Iglesias A (2015) The demand of British tourists to Spain. Rev Econ Apl 23:51–59 Araujo L (2017) Portuguese tourism strategy 2027 leading the tourism of the future. Worldwide Hosp Tour Themes 9:646–652. https://doi.org/10.1108/WHATT-­09-­2017-­0052 Bailoa S, Cravo P (2020) Strategic tourism planning in Portugal: challenges for the National Tourism Development. Zb Veleuc Rijeci 8:353–374. https://doi.org/10.31784/zvr.8.1.23 Baldacchino G, Duarte Ferreira EC (2013) Competing notions of diversity in archipelago tourism: transport logistics, official rhetoric and Inter-Island rivalry in the Azores. Island Stud J 8:84–104 Balsas CJL (2018) Country marketing and planning implications of the European soccer championship EURO 2004. J Urban Technol 25:29–46. https://doi.org/10.1080/10630732.2017.12 84984

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Borges AP, Vieira EP, Romao J (2018) The evaluation of the perceived value of festival experiences: the case of Serralves em Festa! Int J Event Festiv Manag 9:279–296. https://doi. org/10.1108/IJEFM-­01-­2018-­0002 Cunha-e-Sa MA, Freitas R, Nunes LC, Otrachshenko V (2018) On nature’s shoulders: riding the big waves in Nazare. Tour Econ 24:369–385. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816617731195 da Camara Correia AB, Sebastiao SP (2017) Water sports and tourism in Portugal. The potential of rowing training centers. Investig Tur:114–139. https://doi.org/10.14198/INTURI2017.13.06 Dimitric M, Zikovic IT, Blecich AA (2019) Profitability determinants of hotel companies in selected Mediterranean countries. Ekon Istraz 32:1977–1993. https://doi.org/10.1080/13316 77X.2019.1642785 Flores Ruiz D, Perogil Burgos J, Miedes Ugarte B (2018) Smart destinations or intelligent territories? Study of cases in Spain. Rev Estud Reg:193–219 Gouveia S, Rebelo J, Lourenco-Gomes L, Guedes A (2017) International demand for the Douro (Portugal) river cruises: a gravity model approach. Tour Econ 23:1679–1686. https://doi. org/10.1177/1354816617692478 INE (2020) Several statistics. https://www.ine.pt/xportal/xmain?xpgid=ine_main&xpid=INE. Accessed 29 July 2020 Lima J, Eusebio C, Varum CA (2018) Determinants of leisure expenditure: do low income families behave any differently from others? Anatolia 29:24–39. https://doi.org/10.1080/13032917.20 17.1366345 Lopes AP, Soares F (2017) Tourism planning and development: the case of Portugal’s Norte region. Tour Manag Stud 13:20–29. https://doi.org/10.18089/tms.2017.13403 Luz AL (2017) Between tourism and subsidies: institutions and power governing the Baldios of the Peneda-Geres National Park. Finisterra 52:7–27. https://doi.org/10.18055/Finis9824 Mendonsa E (1983) Tourism and income strategies in Nazare, Portugal. Ann Touris Res 10:213– 238. https://doi.org/10.1016/0160-­7383(83)90027-­0 Oliveira R, Pedro MI, Marques RC (2013) Efficiency performance of the Algarve hotels using a revenue function. Int J Hosp Manag 35:59–67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhm.2013.05.005 Pacheco L (2016) RevPAR determinants of Portuguese hotels: the global and the local factors. Tourism 64:219–230 Pato L, Kastenholz E (2017) Marketing of rural tourism – a study based on rural tourism lodgings in Portugal. J Place Manag Dev 10:121–139. https://doi.org/10.1108/JPMD-­06-­2016-­0037 PatsouratisV, Frangouli Z,Anastasopoulos G (2005) Competition in tourism among the Mediterranean countries. Appl Econ 37:1865–1870. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500217226 Piasecki W, Glabinski Z, Francour P et al (2016) Pescatourism-a European review and perspective. Acta Ichthyol Piscat 46:325–350. https://doi.org/10.3750/AIP2016.46.4.06 Pletikosa D (2015) Proposing the model for measuring competitiveness of Croatian tourism and hotel industry. Ekon Pregl 66:579–608 Rebanal Martinez G (2019) Golf, enterprise, and tourism in belle Epoque Europe c. 1900-1914. J Tour Hist 11:124–143. https://doi.org/10.1080/1755182X.2019.1610081 Serra J, Correia A, Rodrigues PMM (2014) A comparative analysis of tourism destination demand in Portugal. J Destin Mark Manag 2:221–227. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2013.10.002 Stata (2020) Software for statistics and data science. https://www.stata.com/. Accessed 29 July 2020 StataCorp (2017a) Stata 15 base reference manual. StataCorp LLC, College Station StataCorp (2017b) Stata statistical software: release. StataCorp LLC, College Station, p 15 Vaz AS, Castro-Diez P, Godoy O et al (2018) An indicator-based approach to analyse the effects of non-native tree species on multiple cultural ecosystem services. Ecol Indic 85:48–56. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.10.009 Vaz AS, Goncalves JF, Pereira P et al (2019) Earth observation and social media: evaluating the spatiotemporal contribution of non-native trees to cultural ecosystem services. Remote Sens Environ 230:111193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.05.012 Vieira JC, Antunes MC (2017) Touristic big-game fishing in Saint Michael Island (Azores): evaluating anglers’ profiles, perceptions about the destination and business revenues. Tour Econ 23:1362–1368. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816616686414

Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?

Abstract  The municipalities in Portugal play a crucial role in promoting tourism in an integrated way, and appear, in some cases, as essential territorial brands for the respective marketing plans. This territorial marketing may take advantages of natural, cultural and historical municipal heritage to create wealth and maintain the identity and heterogeneity. Of course, the supranational and transnational cooperation to combine strategies are, also, important in a perspective of complementarity. In this context, this study aims to provide a perspective of the tourism sector in Portugal, through bibliometric analysis and statistical survey, so as to show the importance of the Portuguese municipalities in the performance of tourism and to highlight the impacts, at a municipal level, from the Covid-19 pandemic. The results reveal that the impacts from the pandemic were not symmetrical across the Portuguese territory and that the more affected municipalities were those which were more dependent on mass tourism, specifically those located in the big cities and the Algarve. Keywords  Tourism sector · Bibliometric analysis · Panel data · Portuguese municipalities

1  Introduction The municipalities as DMOs – Destination Management Organizations (Mira et al. 2019) may provide a special contribution towards the implementation of an effective tourism marketing strategy (Antunes Moura et al. 2019), in providing accessible information for foreign tourists (Bailini 2019), to promote natural resources so as to obtain added value (Carvalhido et al. 2016; Lopes et al. 2019), to encourage rural festival events (Espina Barrio and Bonatto Barcellos 2017) and to deeper explore available municipal resources (Lopes et  al. 2016). The supra-municipal decisions and governance also have their influence and the respective implications spread out often beyond the municipal borders (D’Emery et al. 2018), including in

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 V. J. P. D. Martinho, Economics of Tourism in Portugal, SpringerBriefs in Economics, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-65200-5_3

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Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?

the transnational cooperation frameworks, as occurs in the Euroregion of Galicia – Northern Portugal (Pardellas de Blas and Padin Fabeiro 2012). Natural resources (rivers, mountains, etc), complemented with processed and well-known products (wine), of the said municipalities may be considered in order to promote a municipal marketing strategy in an integrated way (Baptista 2017). The gastronomic resources may also have play a relevant role here (Barroco and Augusto 2016), or perhaps the giant waves from Nazaré (Cunha-e-Sa et al. 2018), or the surfing tourism in Aljezur (Machado et al. 2018), or indeed, historical heritage (Fonseca and Ramos 2012). Cultural heritage may bring about specific outcomes for a balanced regional development in Portugal (Guedes and Martin Jimenez 2015), but may also assist in maintaining regional identities (Guerreiro et al. 2019), as well as, sporting activities (Perna et  al. 2019), or even alternative tourism (Taboadela et al. 2018). Slow tourism may be another interesting approach, mainly, for municipalities which have a low population density (Losada and Mota 2019). The new technologies of information and communication are determinant tools nowadays for every socioeconomic activity, including the tourism sector (Machado et al. 2020). In the associated digital platforms, some Portuguese municipal brands appear with great relevance (Dinis et al. 2017). In fact, the territorial brands have their importance for the performance of the municipal economic sectors, so they may contribute to the brands’ rankings such as the Portugal City Brand, for example (Ferreira and Dionisio 2019). In general, the municipal websites highlight both culinary and architectural resources (Pineiro-Naval and Serra 2019). Nonetheless, climate change and the extreme environmental phenomena pose as real threats to municipal strategies in the long run (Barros et al. 2015), including the Algarve (Martinez-Grana et al. 2016). Sometimes, tourism activities are net contributors to global warming (Russo et al. 2020). Indeed, local conditions and standards are dynamic and consequently the strategies designed should be adjustable to permanent changes within these territorial contexts (Freire 2016). In any case, Portugal has singular touristic conditions with a great potential to be explored (Mira-Perez 2018), where the local stakeholders’ involvement, including in policy design, is crucial (Remoaldo et al. 2017). Global warming and the weak tourism diversification are two effective threats that make the touristic dynamics in Portugal vulnerable (Samora-Arvela et al. 2020). Following the trends described, the main objective of this research is to analyse the context of the tourism sector in Portugal, at a municipal level, both before and after the Covid-19 pandemic. For this purpose a bibliometric analysis and also a data analysis were performed on the tourism sector in Portugal. The bibliometric analysis was carried out through the VOSviewer software (van Eck and Waltman 2020; VOSviewer 2020) for 646 documents found in the WoS Core Collection (Web of Science 2020) for the topics “tourism” and “Portugal” (the search was carried out on 28 August 2020). For the data analysis the statistical information available in Statistics Portugal (INE 2020)as considered and was worked through the Stata software (StataCorp. 2017a, b; Stata 2020) procedures.

2  Bibliometric Analysis

69

2  Bibliometric Analysis Figure 1 and Table 1 reveal that the keywords with more occurrences (number of documents in which a keyword appears), for the topics “tourism” and “Portugal” are the following: tourism; Portugal; management; model; satisfaction; sustainability; rural tourism; destination; consumption; destination image; impact; performance; competitiveness; experience; perceptions; heritage; image; impacts; quality; Algarve. These occurrences show the importance of the Algarve for Portuguese tourism as well as other aspects such as satisfaction, image, perceptions, heritage and quality. In turn, Algarve and “sustainable development” are older keywords (Avg. pub. Year) and “social media” is the most recent. The average citations obtained by the documents in which the keywords appear (Avg. citations) are higher for loyalty, image, consumption, rural tourism and Algarve. When considered the Avg. norm. Citations the keywords ‘impact’ and ‘social media’ appear first (Table. 1). For a total of 321 sources, Table 2 reveals that the publications with more documents are the following: Pasos-Revista de Turismo y Patrimonio Cultural; Tourism Economics; Journal of Coastal Research; Rosa dos Ventos-Turismo e Hospitalidade; Proceedings of the second International Conference on Tourism Research; Journal of Spatial and Organizational Dynamics; Worldwide Hospitality and Tourism

Fig. 1  Network visualization map for link co-occurrence and items all keywords, considering 1 as minimum number of occurrences of a keyword

70

Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?

Table 1  Bibliometric indicators related to keywords with ten or more occurrences Label Tourism Portugal Management Model Satisfaction Sustainability Rural tourism Destination Consumption Destination image Impact Performance Competitiveness Experience Perceptions Heritage Image Impacts Quality Algarve Travel Behavior Hospitality Attitudes Loyalty Sustainable tourism Demand Hotels Determinants Innovation Authenticity Industry Motivation Policy Spain Wine tourism Experiences Framework Governance Education Place

Cluster 3 7 9 6 11 4 6 14 25 10 2 13 6 11 6 4 6 23 6 8 18 27 13 3 6 25 2 12 2 13 11 13 6 2 26 15 3 5 5 3 3

Occurrences 200 157 42 38 37 32 27 26 22 22 22 22 21 21 21 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 17 16 16 16 15 15 14 14 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 11

Avg. pub. Year 2016.209 2015.298 2015.585 2016.351 2016.857 2015.533 2015.593 2017.840 2015.952 2017.143 2016.667 2016.046 2016.191 2017.750 2016.750 2017.944 2014.889 2015.600 2016.316 2013.895 2015.353 2015.118 2017.813 2017.200 2015.625 2017.250 2015.600 2016.667 2017.000 2016.615 2017.250 2016.417 2016.462 2015.727 2015.231 2016.308 2017.727 2018.417 2016.250 2014.182 2017.143

Avg. Citations 5.765 8.306 11.048 15.395 18.135 1.531 24.407 9.308 26.682 2.364 14.727 15.409 4.143 4.191 13.810 1.050 27.850 8.000 11.000 21.579 11.278 20.353 3.529 8.188 37.813 7.250 6.133 11.533 14.000 4.714 2.846 11.154 15.308 17.000 8.539 3.769 3.167 4.500 8.583 4.727 3.364

Avg. norm. Citations 0.960 0.891 1.110 1.898 1.774 0.270 1.966 1.319 2.641 1.157 3.099 1.988 0.611 1.639 1.660 0.451 1.914 1.629 1.770 1.497 1.620 2.119 0.923 1.463 2.386 1.421 0.891 2.361 1.765 0.889 1.014 2.102 1.417 2.484 0.527 0.461 0.795 1.922 1.747 1.214 0.712 (continued)

3  Statistical Information Analysis by Portuguese Municipalities

71

Table 1 (continued) Label Social media Sustainable development Conservation Cultural tourism Lisbon Segmentation

Avg. pub. Cluster Occurrences Year 12 11 2018.546 4 11 2013.636

Avg. Citations 5.546 17.455

Avg. norm. Citations 3.072 1.264

26 15 3 14

17.300 2.400 6.800 13.200

2.203 0.918 1.178 2.261

10 10 10 10

2016.000 2017.222 2016.333 2017.200

Themes; Sustainability. This context shows the transversal dimension of the tourism fields. Table 3 demonstrates that for a total of 1000 authors, Carlos Costa, Celeste Eusébio, Antónia Correia, Elisabeth Kastenholz and Sandra Correia Loureiro are the researchers with more documents. The number of documents for these authors range between 17 for Carlos Costa and 9 for Sandra Loureiro. The great majority of the authors have only 1 document, showing that there are fields to explore, namely, in the creation of more networking and specialised groups in these fields. The University of the Algarve and the University of Aveiro are the organizations with more documents about these topics (93 and 84, respectively), from a total of 584 institutions (Table 4). In addition, the organizations with ten or more documents are all Portuguese. In turn, the majority of these institutions have only one document. There are also fields here to be explored further through greater networking, namely with international organizations. Finally, Table 5 suggests that after Portugal; Spain, England, Brazil, Italy, USA, Germany, France and Greece are the countries of the authors’ affiliations with 10 or more documents about the topics addressed here, in a total of 56 countries. Table 5 also shows that there is a great concentration of documents from Portuguese affiliations (493 documents, when the second country with more documents is Spain with 86).

3  S  tatistical Information Analysis by Portuguese Municipalities The distribution of the average overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments, by municipality and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020, in decreasing order is the following (Fig. 2): Lisboa; Albufeira; Funchal; Porto; Loulé; Portimão; Lagoa; Cascais; Vila Real de Santo António; Lagos; Santa Cruz; Ponta Delgada; Ourém; Tavira; Vila Nova de Gaia; Coimbra; Évora; Sintra; Braga; Faro; Porto Santo; Matosinhos; Almada. For the overnight stays by Portuguese residents in tourist accommodation establishments (Fig.  3) the first six leader regions, on

72

Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?

Table 2  Bibliometric indicators for sources with two or more documents Source Pasos-revista de turismo y patrimonio cultural Tourism economics Journal of coastal research Rosa dos ventos-turismo e hospitalidade Proceedings of the second international conference on tourism research Journal of spatial and organizational dynamics Worldwide hospitality and tourism themes Sustainability International journal of tourism research Tourism management Anatolia-international journal of tourism and hospitality research European journal of tourism research Annals of tourism research Current issues in tourism Tourism planning & development Journal of destination marketing & management Tourism & management studies Anais brasileiros de estudos turisticos-abet Finisterra-revista portuguesa de geografia Ocean & coastal management Tourism management perspectives Ecological indicators International journal of hospitality management Journal of coastal conservation Journal of rural studies Journal of tourism and cultural change Cuadernos de turismo European journal of tourism hospitality and recreation International journal of heritage studies International journal of marketing communication and new media Journal of hospitality and tourism management Journal of place management and development Journal of travel & tourism marketing Marine policy Marketing places and spaces Tourism Tourism analysis Applied economics Applied geography Education excellence and innovation management through vision 2020 Geoheritage

Documents 22 22 16 14 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3

Citations 20 161 87 3 3 15 12 26 206 476 11 15 206 126 16 97 15 10 4 170 47 213 368 34 62 24 2 5 27 4 56 32 193 53 6 3 9 109 81 0 9

(continued)

3  Statistical Information Analysis by Portuguese Municipalities

73

Table 2 (continued) Source Information technology & tourism International journal of entrepreneurial behavior & research International journal of event and festival management Investigaciones turisticas Journal of hospitality & tourism research Landscape and urban planning Pomorstvo-scientific journal of maritime research Portuguese economic journal Proceedings of the international conference on tourism research Science of the total environment Tourism and hospitality research Tourism geographies Vision 2020: sustainable economic development and application of innovation management 2019 14th iberian conference on information systems and technologies 3rd world multidisciplinary civil engineering, architecture, urban planning symposium 4th annual euromed conference of the euromed academy of business: business research challenges in a turbulent era 4th world conference on business, economics and management 5th annual euromed conference of the euromed academy of business: building new business models for success through competitiveness and responsibility Anales de geografia de la universidad complutense Applied economics letters Cadernos de geografia Coastal management European planning studies Gestao e desenvolvimento Heritage 2010: heritage and sustainable development, vols 1 and 2 Holos Hydrobiologia Increase Inted2017: 11th international technology, education and development conference International journal of contemporary hospitality management International journal of culture tourism and hospitality research International journal of tourism cities International journal of wine business research Journal of cleaner production Journal of global scholars of marketing science Journal of quality assurance in hospitality & tourism

Documents 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Citations 22 10 1 1 23 275 1 58 1 26 7 17 0

2 2

0 1

2

0

2 2

5 0

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

0 5 1 5 3 1 1 1 48 1 1

2 2 2 2 2 2 2

23 3 0 8 54 1 12 (continued)

74

Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?

Table 2 (continued) Source Journal of sustainable tourism Journal of tourism history Journal of travel research Place branding and public diplomacy Proceedings of the 13th european conference on innovation and entrepreneurship Prostor Regional environmental change Social & cultural geography Sustainable architecture and urban development, vol ii Sustainable tourism iv Tourism and culture in the age of innovation Tourism economics: impact analysis Tourism, culture and heritage in a smart economy Urban studies

Documents 2 2 2 2 2

Citations 41 1 12 7 0

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

3 49 2 0 0 3 4 1 22

average, are the following: Lisbon; Albufeira; Porto; Loulé; Portimão; Funchal. This reveals that Portuguese tourists prefer more mainland destinations. When considering the average overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents (Fig. 4), the six leading regions are those presented as follows: Lisboa; Albufeira; Funchal; Porto; Loulé; Portimão. Considering the monthly average (from January until May) growth rate (%), over the period 2013–2019, by municipality (Table  6), Porto Santo, Lagos, Portimão, Lagoa, Ourém and Tavira were the municipalities with higher increases for the total overnight stays (87%, 61%, 58%, 57%, 53% and 47%, respectively, on average per month). Funchal holds the worst growth rates (9% on average per month). The ­overnight stays by national and foreign residents have grown more, also, in Porto Santo (86% and 117%, respectively, on average per month). When considering the first 5 months of 2020 (Table 7), the worst context for total overnight stays are for Ourém (−22% on average per month), Funchal (−20%), Lisboa (−19%) and Santa Cruz (−16%). The overnight stays by Portuguese residents decreased more in Funchal, Ourém, Lagoa and Lisboa. The overnight stays by foreign residents have more accentuated decreases in Évora, Cascais, Funchal, Braga and Lisboa. The monthly average (from January until May) homologous growth rate (%), over the period 2013–2019, by municipality (Table  8), were higher, for the total overnight stays, in Porto Santo and Ponta Delgada (52% and 19%, respectively, on average per month). Santa Cruz, Vila Real de Santo António and Funchal had the lower average growth rates. Porto Santo and Ponta Delgada are, also, the leading municipalities for the overnight stay average growth rates by Portuguese residents,

3  Statistical Information Analysis by Portuguese Municipalities Table 3 Bibliometric indicators for authors with two or more documents

Author Costa, Carlos Eusebio, Celeste Correia, Antonia Kastenholz, Elisabeth Correia Loureiro, Sandra Maria Carneiro, Maria Joao Mendes, Julio Costa, Vania Estevao, Cristina Pinto, Patricia Rodrigues, Paulo M. M. Silva, Joao Albino Bakas, Fiona Eva Breda, Zelia Correia, Marisol B. Joukes, Veronika Liberato, Dalia Madaleno, Ana Remoaldo, Paula Cristina Ribeiro, Jose Cadima Santos, Norberto Varum, Celeste Almeida, Joana Duxbury, Nancy Ferreira, O. Figueiredo, Elisabete Liberato, Pedro Nunes, Sara Pacheco, Osvaldo Ross, David Silva, Luis Almeida, Claudia Andraz, Jorge M. Au-Yong-Oliveira, Manuel Barros, Carlos Pestana Brochado, Ana Caldeira, Ana Casais, Beatriz Cruz, Ana Rita Fernandes, Carlos Ferreira, Joao Franco, Mario

75 Documents 17 17 14 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Citations 95 233 174 228 494 95 101 7 16 45 56 19 20 11 36 1 3 19 47 9 11 19 16 9 43 82 3 6 6 11 44 6 27 1 124 5 21 5 33 2 4 30 (continued)

76

Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?

Table 3 (continued) Author Guerreiro, Manuela Kozak, Metin Oliveira, Marcelo G. Perna, Fernando Pintassilgo, Pedro Ramos, Carlos Rita, Paulo Rodrigues, Daniela Santos, Eulalia Santos, Paula Mota Silveira, Luis Tavares, Alice Vargas-Sanchez, Alfonso Agapito, Dora Alen, Elisa Almeida, Claudia Ribeiro Alvarez-Diaz, Marcos Amaro, Suzanne Andrade, Francisco Andraz, Jorge L. M. Antunes Moura, Andreia Filipa Barroco, Cristina Bento, Paulo Tiago Brandao, Filipa Buhalis, Dimitrios Cardoso, Lucilia Carvalho, Ines Carvalho, Rui Castro, Conceicao Chamusca, Pedro Costa, Carlos M. G. Costa, Pedro Cunha-E-Sa, Maria A. Custodio, Maria Joao Da Silva, Carlos Pereira Da Silva, Diogo Soares Da Silva, Fernando Nunes Daniel, Ana C. M. Dias-Sardinha, Idalina Duarte, Ana Patricia Fernandes, Jose Fernandes, Paula

Documents 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Citations 1 46 0 6 15 1 56 3 3 11 1 15 42 90 3 0 0 16 8 11 1 3 1 22 34 0 7 8 2 6 4 0 2 5 8 30 14 6 9 1 6 16 (continued)

3  Statistical Information Analysis by Portuguese Municipalities

77

Table 3 (continued) Author Ferreira, Fernanda A. Ferreira, Joao J. M. Ferreira, Jose Carlos Figueira, Luis Mota Fonseca, Catarina Gato, Maria Assuncao Ghasemi, Vahid Goncalves, Hugo S. Goncalves, Ramiro Gonzalez-Gomez, Manuel Guedes, Alexandre Honrado, Joao P. Hortelano Minguez, Luis Alfonso Lavandoski, Joice Lima, Joana Lopes, Helder Lorentz, Susanne Lykke, Nina Machado, Virgilio Marques, Rui Cunha Martins, Carmen Martins, Constantino Matias, Alvaro Matos, Olga Melo, Ricardo Meneses Rodrigues, Jose Carlos Menn, Brigitte Mesquita, Rodrigo Mira, Maria Do Rosario Montenegro, Monica Moro, Sergio Moura, Andreia Moutinho, Victor Naucke, Torsten J. Neves, Joana Maria De Oliveira Newton, Alice Nijkamp, Peter Norte, Nelia M. Oliveira, f. Oliveira, Margarida Oliveira, Ricardo Oliveira, Tiago

Documents 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Citations 2 11 8 7 8 0 2 13 36 0 2 25 0 9 24 6 90 7 1 69 2 4 4 4 11 0 90 1 0 0 6 0 65 90 0 93 111 13 5 0 69 5 (continued)

78

Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?

Table 3 (continued) Author Oliveira, Vanessa Pacheco, Catarina Pacheco, Luis Pato, Lucia Paulo De Jesus Carvalho, Mario Joao Pedro, Maria Isabel Pereira Neto, Maria Joao Pereira, Luis Nobre Pereiro, Xerardo Perestrelo, Margarida Pineiro-Naval, Valeriano Pinto, Hugo Pinto, Jorge Pita, Cristina Prista, Marta Proenca, Sara Ramos, Paulo Rebelo, Joao Remoaldo, Paula Ribeiro, Vitor Rodrigues, Ana Isabel Rodrigues, Helena Rodrigues, Susana Romao, Joao Santos, Carlos Santos, Jose Antonio C. Sarmento, Joao Schubert, Stefan F. Serra, Francisco Serra, Jaime Serra, Paulo Shahrabani, Shosh Silva, Sara Silva, Susana Silveira, Tanya M. Soledad Otero-Giraldez, Maria Soukiazis, Elias Sousa, Bruno Barbosa Sousa, Carlos Sousa, Cristina Teitler-Regev, Sharon Teixeira, Joao

Documents 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Citations 5 0 6 15 4 69 1 1 3 0 2 33 6 16 7 118 6 2 6 6 2 0 0 15 0 2 1 4 18 19 2 0 6 1 8 0 118 0 15 5 0 16 (continued)

4 Conclusions

79

Table 3 (continued) Author Thiel, Andreas Tome, Eduardo Torkington, Kate Torres, Analia Trillo-Santamaria, Juan-Manuel Tsoukatos, Evangelos Vareiro, Laurentina Varum, Humberto Vaz, Ana Sofia Vaz, Eric De Noronha Vicente, Joana R. Vieira, Isabel Voulgaris, Fotini Woldarsky, V.

Documents 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Citations 20 0 51 7 9 0 1 14 25 111 25 0 0 1

jointly with Vila Real de Santo António, Lagos and Albufeira. When only considering the overnight stays from foreign residents, the higher average growth rates were verified in Porto Santo, Almada, Braga, Faro and Porto and weaker performances were found for Vila Real de Santo António, Santa Cruz and Funchal. For the monthly (from January until May) homologous growth rate (%), for the year 2020, by municipality (Table 9) the more dramatic contexts for total overnight stays are for some municipalities from the Algarve (namely, Faro, Vila Real de Santo António, Lagoa, Portimão and Albufeira) from Lisboa (as well as neighbouring municipalities such as Cascais and Sintra) and from Braga. When solely considering overnight stays by Portuguese residents, the municipalities with more negative growth rates are the following: Vila Real de Santo António; Porto; Braga; Lisboa; Sintra; Cascais; Loulé and Portimão. For overnight stays from foreign residents, the worst contexts are for Faro; Cascais; Lagoa; Coimbra; Portimão; Lisboa; Vila Nova de Gaia; Vila Real de Santo António; Sintra and Braga.

4  Conclusions With this study the intention was to highlight contributions to the evolution of the tourism sector, at the Portuguese municipalities’ level, both before and after the Covid-19 pandemic. For this purpose a bibliometric analysis covering the tourism sector in Portugal was first carried out and later the statistical information, disaggregated at a municipal level, for the total overnight stays in touristic accommodation establishments and for the overnight stays by Portuguese and foreign residents was also assessed. For the bibliometric analysis, the procedures proposed by the VOSviewer software were considered and for the data analysis the statistical information available in the Portugal Statistics institution was used.

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Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?

Table 4  Bibliometric indicators for organizations with two or more documents Organization Univ algarve Univ aveiro Univ lisbon Univ nova lisboa Univ coimbra Univ minho Univ porto Univ beira interior Univ evora Univ tras os montes & alto douro Polytech inst cavado & ave Polytech inst porto Univ europeia Univ tecn lisboa Inst univ. Lisboa iscte iul Univ santiago de compostela Univ vigo Bournemouth univ Univ portucalense Polytech inst leiria Univ azores Univ malaga Citur Ipdt inst tourism Iscte inst univ. Lisboa Polytech inst coimbra Univ huelva Univ salamanca Polytech inst viseu Univ extremadura Banco portugal Cefage Fernando pessoa univ Inst politecn braganca Polytech inst portalegre Polytech porto Uniag appl management res unit Univ acores Univ alcala de henares Univ madeira Univ seville Cegot

Documents 93 84 51 37 35 24 23 18 18 16 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3

Citations 1061 933 184 342 297 93 102 116 259 46 61 29 12 150 186 49 8 146 21 32 42 34 4 0 0 69 42 39 23 138 13 17 26 5 5 4 2 38 77 20 1 7 (continued)

4 Conclusions

81

Table 4 (continued) Organization Eshte Inst politecn beja Inst politecn castelo branco Inst politecn guarda Inst univ. Lisboa Inst univ. Maia Polytech inst beja Polytech inst braganca Polytech inst cavado & ave. Ipca Solverde grp Uniag Univ aberdeen Univ barcelona Univ complutense madrid Univ cordoba Univ exeter Univ fernando pessoa Univ hull Univ lusiada lisboa Univ rijeka Vrije univ. Amsterdam Bucharest univ. Econ studies Casee Ceos Csic Dokuz eylul univ Ege univ Escola super agr coimbra Escola super hotelaria & turismo estoril Estm polytech inst leiria Free univ. Bozen bolzano Govcopp res unit governance competitiveness & pub Humboldt univ Inst politecn cavado & ave Inst politecn coimbra Inst politecn portalegre Inst politecn porto Inst politecn viana do castelo Inst univ. Maia ismai Ipam porto Ipca

Documents 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Citations 6 4 5 3 8 7 2 16 1 3 5 30 34 39 27 2 9 59 6 1 111 0 12 3 29 2 14 60 0 4 4 0

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

20 4 17 0 0 0 2 1 0 (continued)

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Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?

Table 4 (continued) Organization Iscte univ. Inst lisbon Iul Laboklin gmbh & co kg Linkoping univ Lisbon new univ Lisbon univ Liverpool john moores univ Max stern yezreel valley coll Nova sch business & econ Parasitus ex ev Russian acad sci Swansea metropolitan univ Tech univ. Cartagena upct Tei crete Univ a coruna Univ aberta Univ aveiro isca ua Univ cadiz Univ cagliari Univ calif davis Univ coll swansea Univ crete Univ dusseldorf Univ fed juiz de fora Univ fed sul bahia Univ groningen Univ hohenheim Univ illinois Univ inst lisbon Univ kent Univ la laguna Univ ljubljana Univ munich Univ portsmouth Univ rovira & virgili Univ strathclyde Univ western australia Utad Valoriza res ctr endogenous resource valorizat

Documents 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Citations 21 6 90 7 23 8 22 0 1 90 1 31 3 0 6 25 0 45 2 33 76 71 90 15 1 73 90 114 14 71 2 32 33 65 0 93 9 3 0

4 Conclusions Table 5 Bibliometric indicators for countries

83 Country Portugal Spain England Brazil Italy Usa Germany France Greece Netherlands Turkey Wales Canada Croatia Poland Romania Scotland Australia Czech republic Finland Israel Mexico Russia Slovakia Slovenia South africa Sweden Austria Belgium Cyprus Denmark Malaysia New zealand Norway Peoples r china Switzerland Argentina Bulgaria Chile Cuba

Documents 493 86 31 20 16 16 14 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1

Citations 3712 618 459 57 176 217 202 131 131 274 114 269 33 10 20 29 156 10 28 7 7 3 2 28 33 7 7 11 6 14 46 25 5 72 23 18 15 3 2 2 (continued)

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Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?

Table 5  (continued) Country Estonia India Japan Kuwait Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Morocco Mozambique North ireland Pakistan Saudi arabia Timor-leste U arab emirates Ukraine

Documents 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Citations 3 0 0 1 1 2 79 3 0 48 7 24 1 0 3 3

Fig. 2  Distribution of overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments, by municipality (including total) and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Note: 1, Total; 2, Lisboa; 3, Albufeira; 4, Funchal; 5, Porto; 6, Loulé; 7, Portimão; 8, Lagoa; 9, Cascais; 10, Lagos; 11, Ponta Delgada; 12, VR Sto António; 13, Ourém; 14, Santa Cruz; 15, Tavira; 16, VN Gaia; 17, Coimbra; 18, Sintra; 19, Évora; 20, Braga; 21, Faro; 22, Matosinhos; 23, Almada; 24, Porto Santo; 25, others

4 Conclusions

85

Fig. 3  Distribution of overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by Portuguese residents, by municipality (including total) and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Note: 1, Total; 2, Lisboa; 3, Albufeira; 4, Funchal; 5, Porto; 6, Loulé; 7, Portimão; 8, Lagoa; 9, Cascais; 10, Lagos; 11, Ponta Delgada; 12, VR Sto António; 13, Ourém; 14, Santa Cruz; 15, Tavira; 16, VN Gaia; 17, Coimbra; 18, Sintra; 19, Évora; 20, Braga; 21, Faro; 22, Matosinhos; 23, Almada; 24, Porto Santo; 25, others

The literature review highlights the importance of the Portuguese municipalities in the promotion of the tourism sector and to support an adjusted strategy that allows for a better exploitation of the endogenous resources through sustainable plans. In any case, the supramunicipal and supranational governance and cooperation also have their relevance. The municipal specific resources, such as the rivers, mountains, landscapes, gastronomy, traditions and historical heritage should be considered for segmented strategies and for building municipal brands. The bibliometric analysis stresses the importance, for tourism in Portugal, from keywords such as: management; satisfaction; sustainability; rural tourism; image; competitiveness; quality; perceptions. The great wars in the marketing world are relative to consumers’ perceptions and here the image and the quality are crucial for an effective competitiveness of the sector. In turn, the bibliometric indicators for the authors, organizations and countries reveal that there are fields to be explored in terms of creating greater networking and specialised groups, namely, involving more cooperation between Portuguese institutions and international partnerships. The statistical survey shows that, on average over the period January 2013 – May 2020, the Portuguese municipalities for Lisboa, Porto, Funchal and others from the Algarve region are amongst those with more total overnight stays in accommoda-

86

Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?

Fig. 4  Distribution of overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents, by municipality (including total) and over the monthly period January 2013–May 2020 Note: 1, Total; 2, Lisboa; 3, Albufeira; 4, Funchal; 5, Porto; 6, Loulé; 7, Portimão; 8, Lagoa; 9, Cascais; 10, Lagos; 11, Ponta Delgada; 12, VR Sto António; 13, Ourém; 14, Santa Cruz; 15, Tavira; 16, VN Gaia; 17, Coimbra; 18, Sintra; 19, Évora; 20, Braga; 21, Faro; 22, Matosinhos; 23, Almada; 24, Porto Santo; 25, others

tion establishments. When compared, the overnight stays by residents and non-­ residents in Portugal, the main difference is observed for Funchal. In fact, in decreasing order for the number of overnight stays, Funchal appears earlier for foreign residents. Considering the average monthly growth rates for the period January 2013 – May 2020, despite some municipalities from the Algarve, the higher growth rates for the total overnight stays were verified in Porto Santo and Ourém, which may be a good sign of a more balanced development outside the traditional locations for mass tourism. With the pandemic the municipalities which were affected more were Funchal and Lisboa, but, also, Ourém, Évora, Santa Cruz and Braga. In homologous terms, Porto Santo and Ponta Delgada appear to have had a good performance before the pandemic for the first 5 months of each year in the period 2013–2019. With the pandemic, in homologous terms and on average, the worst contexts were verified in some municipalities of the Algarve, Lisboa and Braga. The pandemic’s impact was asymmetric across the Portuguese municipalities, which calls for differentiated strategies in order to recover the sector, considering the specific conditions for each case. The insights presented here may be an interesting contribution towards supporting the design of new policy instruments.

4 Conclusions

87

Table 6  Monthly average (from January until May) growth rate (%), over the period 2013–2019, by municipality (including total)

Municipality Total Total Total Total Lisboa Lisboa Lisboa Lisboa Albufeira Albufeira Albufeira Albufeira Funchal Funchal Funchal Funchal Porto Porto Porto Porto Loulé Loulé Loulé Loulé Portimão Portimão Portimão Portimão Lagoa Lagoa Lagoa Lagoa Cascais Cascais Cascais Cascais Lagos Lagos

Month February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments 16.472 38.420 25.881 16.774 4.232 36.338 14.503 10.502 46.767 56.432 57.244 21.746 6.319 19.868 3.320 7.740 7.841 37.648 22.565 15.438 40.684 45.691 38.283 22.295 57.200 51.190 75.343 48.946 80.954 63.946 48.318 34.840 27.937 68.784 22.209 20.591 40.759 103.127

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal 11.665 29.266 17.725 3.049 −1.338 21.457 0.150 9.007 25.630 101.294 94.587 −12.951 −0.511 36.380 17.496 7.471 6.096 15.514 −0.371 7.449 44.146 37.333 39.353 −6.115 16.534 81.574 97.761 6.577 44.218 52.970 57.742 −12.207 8.992 32.280 4.470 1.927 19.633 39.037

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents 18.937 42.632 29.441 21.963 5.975 40.808 17.986 10.956 50.892 50.980 53.679 28.829 6.959 18.531 2.020 7.868 8.962 48.620 31.393 17.968 39.992 48.800 38.477 30.667 70.066 46.092 71.497 59.997 90.023 66.004 47.367 43.417 40.082 86.022 28.119 25.552 46.213 115.955 (continued)

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Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?

Table 6 (continued) Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments Municipality Month Lagos April 54.170 Lagos May 47.329 Ponta February 29.562 Delgada Ponta March 60.478 Delgada Ponta April 55.879 Delgada Ponta May 16.667 Delgada VR Sto February 16.067 António VR Sto March 22.735 António VR Sto April 10.865 António VR Sto May −4.563 António Ourém February 24.023 Ourém March 87.239 Ourém April 67.014 Ourém May 35.117 Santa Cruz February 3.405 Santa Cruz March 28.254 Santa Cruz April 11.453 Santa Cruz May 6.175 Tavira February 60.614 Tavira March 73.654 Tavira April 36.580 Tavira May 18.319 VN Gaia February 0.476 VN Gaia March 23.676 VN Gaia April 20.554 VN Gaia May 15.261 Coimbra February 4.357 Coimbra March 45.142

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal 84.375 18.855 27.799

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents 51.860 51.373 34.638

46.740

80.092

31.122

82.436

2.500

31.145

9.649

16.844

93.004

16.036

73.664

3.818

36.877

−11.748

7.726 54.847 33.071 40.210 12.773 35.442 34.476 −2.056 12.839 107.889 77.566 3.282 −2.042 12.247 4.084 7.104 9.703 31.560

38.838 107.202 82.654 34.360 2.940 27.998 10.015 7.146 78.514 68.777 26.512 23.966 6.213 41.324 42.575 24.614 0.206 63.059 (continued)

4 Conclusions

89

Table 6 (continued)

Municipality Coimbra Coimbra Sintra Sintra Sintra Sintra Évora Évora Évora Évora Braga Braga Braga Braga Faro Faro Faro Faro Matosinhos Matosinhos Matosinhos Matosinhos Almada Almada Almada Almada Porto Santo Porto Santo Porto Santo Porto Santo Others Others Others Others

Month April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments 21.481 23.728 13.459 45.512 17.653 15.533 17.350 41.418 27.921 16.725 6.943 24.360 20.777 13.306 16.170 46.579 35.407 11.874 0.404 25.959 12.770 14.443 28.182 61.083 35.783 20.810 51.187 88.262 82.395 125.884 19.512 32.769 23.634 14.348

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal 3.335 17.961 7.219 18.803 1.622 7.996 18.304 30.723 16.402 −3.162 2.424 21.335 12.170 0.738 15.167 33.201 5.495 15.052 1.275 11.712 5.151 11.319 21.008 33.120 13.105 17.558 51.876 155.958 88.972 50.462 16.905 23.700 13.933 1.806

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents 43.548 28.594 22.859 77.285 30.429 20.227 16.492 59.121 43.807 37.516 15.227 31.741 36.018 31.909 17.941 54.710 50.897 11.230 −0.340 72.206 29.649 20.960 38.352 87.496 52.473 21.674 50.252 61.745 120.025 236.366 24.783 48.331 37.794 29.022

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Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?

Table 7  Monthly (since January until May) growth rate (%), for the year 2020, by municipality (including total)

Municipality Total Total Total Total Lisboa Lisboa Lisboa Lisboa Albufeira Albufeira Albufeira Albufeira Funchal Funchal Funchal Funchal Porto Porto Porto Porto Loulé Loulé Loulé Loulé Portimão Portimão Portimão Portimão Lagoa Lagoa Lagoa Lagoa Cascais Cascais Cascais Cascais Lagos Lagos

Month February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments 17.997 −50.499 −91.842 98.063 1.493 −54.376 −93.746 72.169 64.530 −33.234 −97.811 101.547 8.278 −47.840

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal 21.556 −56.673 −80.886 110.689 −1.572 −51.638 −83.752 67.661 56.701 −50.803 −90.897 184.078 5.342 −49.212

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents 16.239 −47.310 −96.496 68.809 2.231 −55.010 −96.234 77.014 66.280 −29.534 −98.828 7.258 8.600 −47.694

3.116 −58.498 −93.460 129.332 37.860 −47.362 −95.471 121.248 57.615 −42.374 −81.973 26.888 89.982 −51.963 −95.081 6.792 21.391 −50.410 −85.947 55.630 37.142 −27.102

5.015 −62.337 −84.721 112.989 42.702 −54.718 −84.251 125.926 23.700 −46.780 −72.530 90.628 49.983 −68.365 −75.498 21.627 9.629 −56.568 −73.071 76.494 34.857 −33.635

2.568 −57.364 −95.740 144.626 36.299 −44.880 −98.582 106.843 69.990 −41.204 −84.242 0.185 102.941 −48.036 −97.936 −18.874 28.313 −47.313 −91.284 28.912 37.654 −25.668 (continued)

4 Conclusions

91

Table 7 (continued)

Municipality Lagos Lagos Ponta Delgada Ponta Delgada Ponta Delgada Ponta Delgada VR Sto António VR Sto António VR Sto António VR Sto António Ourém Ourém Ourém Ourém Santa Cruz Santa Cruz Santa Cruz Santa Cruz Tavira Tavira Tavira Tavira VN Gaia VN Gaia VN Gaia VN Gaia Coimbra Coimbra Coimbra Coimbra Sintra Sintra Sintra

Month April May February

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents

29.103

27.601

31.862

−39.000

−42.071

−33.536

25.654

66.293

21.184

March

−40.691

−59.045

−37.921

April

−97.468

−89.026

−98.309

May

108.243

143.000

85.784

February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April

31.225 −63.626 −88.737 33.926 3.447 −35.084

46.113 −64.647 −74.206 5.812 14.502 −34.897

22.049 −62.872 −98.947 517.647 2.486 −35.102

82.995 −38.305

75.761 −50.877

85.584 −34.046

−5.926 −55.108 −74.799 114.890 −2.319 −61.574 −80.439 82.486 7.075 −66.918 −78.796

−2.744 −56.465 −58.700 106.185 9.174 −63.413 −68.761 76.876 13.351 −71.545 −64.782

−9.740 −53.355 −94.202 189.621 −14.119 −59.175 −94.098 117.217 −0.551 −60.509 −92.782

March April May February

(continued)

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Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?

Table 7 (continued)

Municipality Sintra Évora Évora Évora Évora Braga Braga Braga Braga Faro Faro Faro Faro Matosinhos Matosinhos Matosinhos Matosinhos Almada Almada Almada Almada Porto Santo Porto Santo Porto Santo Porto Santo Others Others Others Others

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments 144.754 14.378 −53.993 −84.207 82.003 12.108 −57.007 −85.657 151.682 11.547 −37.363 −89.142 54.956 −7.173 −44.040 −76.407 152.305 22.284 −52.321 −90.551 135.714 87.161 −28.694

Month May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February March April May February 26.118 March −54.848 April −85.194 May 117.515

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal 140.224 33.316 −57.163 −80.383 110.389 2.368 −52.281 −78.675 161.730 −1.557 −26.166 −79.365 43.872 2.070 −43.470 −67.934 137.791 80.381 −55.399 −83.908 136.116 99.288 −6.695

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents 166.812 −8.541 −48.400 −89.806 2.005 26.778 −62.756 −96.538 55.217 18.186 −42.088 −94.402 76.935 −24.107 −45.445 −98.039 758.252 −9.880 −48.910 −96.977 133.645 83.397 −36.114

29.256 −60.132 −78.622 121.771

20.634 −44.955 −94.106 96.579

4 Conclusions

93

Table 8  Monthly average (from January until May) homologous growth rate (%), over the period 2013–2019, by municipality (including total)

Municipality Total Total Total Total Total Lisboa Lisboa Lisboa Lisboa Lisboa Albufeira Albufeira Albufeira Albufeira Albufeira Funchal Funchal Funchal Funchal Funchal Porto Porto Porto Porto Porto Loulé Loulé Loulé Loulé Loulé Portimão Portimão Portimão Portimão Portimão Lagoa Lagoa Lagoa

Month January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments 11.211 9.654 8.643 11.898 8.050 14.550 13.962 12.305 12.484 9.443 3.248 4.726 5.417 11.408 5.132 7.117 5.608 4.680 2.260 1.500 16.751 16.072 14.887 16.061 12.247 9.947 6.378 3.916 9.089 4.732 9.008 6.569 8.576 14.825 7.311 16.632 14.777 7.985

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal 10.055 9.087 8.057 13.786 9.252 7.547 8.417 9.014 6.220 6.556 15.877 10.660 9.315 27.672 12.626 12.529 10.463 11.969 9.422 8.154 6.327 7.254 6.540 5.584 4.158 13.348 8.457 5.714 12.370 5.153 17.147 13.394 12.654 21.649 10.089 20.538 8.253 2.355

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents 11.851 9.951 8.987 11.274 7.732 16.856 15.614 13.115 13.944 10.035 1.914 4.505 6.328 9.314 4.340 6.730 5.257 4.185 1.617 0.919 22.671 20.762 18.220 19.252 14.391 9.559 5.888 3.819 8.893 4.842 8.280 5.365 8.531 13.716 7.016 16.234 16.732 9.486 (continued)

94

Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?

Table 8 (continued) Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments Municipality Month Lagoa April 17.111 Lagoa May 7.551 Cascais January 14.270 Cascais February 7.284 Cascais March 5.737 Cascais April 11.416 Cascais May 4.605 Lagos January 17.594 Lagos February 18.652 Lagos March 8.546 Lagos April 18.127 Lagos May 10.775 Ponta January 26.944 Delgada Ponta February 20.305 Delgada Ponta March 20.108 Delgada Ponta April 14.994 Delgada Ponta May 11.386 Delgada VR Sto January 2.580 António VR Sto February 0.741 António VR Sto March 0.606 António VR Sto April 4.928 António VR Sto May 7.569 António Ourém January 19.584 Ourém February 14.419 Ourém March 10.953 Ourém April 11.652 Ourém May 11.830 Santa Cruz January 6.912 Santa Cruz February 1.877 Santa Cruz March 1.366 Santa Cruz April 0.541

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal 17.377 4.495 9.250 7.395 7.056 15.631 13.352 17.367 17.449 14.158 24.075 16.372 27.643

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents 17.669 8.032 18.701 7.531 5.449 10.293 2.907 19.259 19.546 8.947 18.054 10.844 28.983

26.260

13.506

29.259

11.669

26.980

7.801

18.738

8.167

18.052

1.717

14.147

−0.181

16.252

−0.594

32.316

1.899

14.615

5.773

13.740 14.065 9.687 15.334 7.705 8.528 12.590 2.345 19.547

25.240 15.689 12.390 11.579 13.677 6.990 1.478 1.473 0.103 (continued)

4 Conclusions

95

Table 8 (continued)

Municipality Santa Cruz Tavira Tavira Tavira Tavira Tavira VN Gaia VN Gaia VN Gaia VN Gaia VN Gaia Coimbra Coimbra Coimbra Coimbra Coimbra Sintra Sintra Sintra Sintra Sintra Évora Évora Évora Évora Évora Braga Braga Braga Braga Braga Faro Faro Faro Faro Faro Matosinhos Matosinhos Matosinhos

Month May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments 0.554 5.547 3.325 1.790 10.682 6.042 9.698 8.667 8.857 12.148 9.237 12.402 9.496 6.253 14.022 8.045 14.422 14.996 11.575 17.600 14.692 15.848 15.150 13.132 15.407 11.743 16.146 15.295 14.367 18.334 15.155 20.477 18.597 13.918 16.337 15.022 12.238 12.057 12.124

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal 10.846 8.462 7.035 1.890 27.455 6.291 3.999 4.531 3.066 3.540 3.034 5.206 5.889 2.851 8.170 3.286 12.470 13.096 13.310 20.062 16.080 13.904 14.653 11.989 16.252 11.530 12.956 10.756 11.076 15.802 12.297 10.684 9.554 6.097 8.682 6.059 11.294 11.803 12.006

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents 0.321 4.884 3.189 2.377 7.565 6.777 21.430 16.239 17.406 22.960 15.466 22.684 15.629 12.578 19.600 12.194 18.651 18.176 10.828 16.336 14.287 20.157 17.519 15.132 15.299 12.834 23.893 25.685 21.714 25.003 19.387 27.012 24.686 18.070 19.586 18.552 17.834 13.798 13.486 (continued)

96

Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?

Table 8 (continued) Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments Municipality Month Matosinhos April 14.142 Matosinhos May 8.959 Almada January 20.025 Almada February 23.286 Almada March 19.340 Almada April 11.747 Almada May 7.594 Porto Santo January 42.924 Porto Santo February 91.996 Porto Santo March 86.418 Porto Santo April 34.087 Porto Santo May 4.654 Others January 12.072 Others February 9.710 Others March 9.898 Others April 15.906 Others May 11.488

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal 10.769 7.175 10.362 15.245 16.686 4.740 4.078 8.866 26.265 29.984 30.138 8.938 10.868 8.949 8.774 15.641 11.438

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents 21.701 12.431 36.024 33.247 24.539 15.878 11.672 96.605 218.675 216.831 75.646 3.376 14.413 11.320 11.829 16.325 11.813

Table 9  Monthly (from January until May) homologous growth rate (%), for the year 2020, by municipality (including total) Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments Municipality Month Total January 7.727 Total February 14.762 Total March −58.682 Total April −97.393 Total May −95.274 Lisboa January 8.287 Lisboa February 4.803 Lisboa March −64.261 Lisboa April −97.949 Lisboa May −96.690 Albufeira January 4.886 Albufeira February 14.040 Albufeira March −51.946 Albufeira April −99.391 Albufeira May −98.840

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal 11.763 26.566 −58.144 −93.548 −85.934 8.215 6.583 −58.724 −92.533 −88.763 14.092 55.856 −55.593 −98.345 −93.519

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents 5.839 9.487 −58.906 −98.905 −98.382 8.305 4.399 −65.416 −98.848 −98.073 3.027 7.940 −51.358 −99.646 −99.667 (continued)

4 Conclusions

97

Table 9 (continued) Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments Municipality Month Funchal January 3.087 Funchal February 11.468 Funchal March −51.288 Funchal April Funchal May Porto January 20.990 Porto February 19.026 Porto March −64.200 Porto April −98.064 Porto May −96.033 Loulé January 3.167 Loulé February 19.067 Loulé March −52.957 Loulé April −98.591 Loulé May −97.236 Portimão January −2.564 Portimão February 14.372 Portimão March −61.121 Portimão April −96.157 Portimão May −95.959 Lagoa January −5.813 Lagoa February 17.684 Lagoa March −57.384 Lagoa April −98.793 Lagoa May −98.825 Cascais January −1.331 Cascais February 10.881 Cascais March −65.452 Cascais April −96.238 Cascais May −94.509 Lagos January 14.860 Lagos February 13.087 Lagos March −46.781 Lagos April Lagos May Ponta January −5.909 Delgada Ponta February 7.366 Delgada

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal 17.164 26.276 −51.358

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents 1.746 10.094 −51.281

8.631 8.551 −64.971 −94.096 −88.498 10.326 24.989 −55.607 −95.304 −88.092 17.737 22.075 −59.353 −94.903 −88.418 15.703 53.834 −56.963 −95.544 −91.199 7.128 24.021 −62.274 −91.870 −85.161 20.547 33.806 −20.255

25.096 22.519 −63.994 −98.811 −97.414 1.053 17.192 −52.166 −99.553 −99.229 −8.331 12.487 −61.523 −96.516 −97.340 −11.165 11.415 −57.445 −99.466 −99.638 −5.712 5.272 −66.618 −97.771 −97.391 13.659 9.371 −50.036

−1.098

−13.629

6.226

9.455 (continued)

98

Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?

Table 9 (continued)

Municipality Ponta Delgada Ponta Delgada Ponta Delgada VR Sto António VR Sto António VR Sto António VR Sto António VR Sto António Ourém Ourém Ourém Ourém Ourém Santa Cruz Santa Cruz Santa Cruz Santa Cruz Santa Cruz Tavira Tavira Tavira Tavira Tavira VN Gaia VN Gaia VN Gaia VN Gaia VN Gaia Coimbra Coimbra Coimbra Coimbra

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments −58.725

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal −59.009

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents −58.275

January

−7.283

−19.007

−5.782

February

2.798

Month March April May

15.002

1.177

March

−51.324

−72.886

−47.138

April

−98.925

−98.260

−99.138

May

−97.752

−96.167

−98.334

January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April

8.903 43.256 −71.691 −97.991 −97.923 −9.957 −1.733 −50.550

6.415 57.871 −63.056 −92.485 −93.631 33.302 20.458 −39.809

10.496 34.096 −75.684 −99.852 −99.305 −12.426 −3.459 −51.394

18.764 48.860 −42.983

15.664 72.977 −47.013

19.914 42.145 −41.868

11.980 7.358 −62.880 −92.026 −83.384 13.356 19.330 −67.851 −95.065

12.681 11.598 −57.307 −82.125 −62.807 27.158 26.784 −65.271 −89.111

11.151 2.337 −67.925 −98.614 −96.208 1.991 10.826 −70.422 −98.875 (continued)

4 Conclusions

99

Table 9 (continued)

Municipality Coimbra Sintra Sintra Sintra Sintra Sintra Évora Évora Évora Évora Évora Braga Braga Braga Braga Braga Faro Faro Faro Faro Faro Matosinhos Matosinhos Matosinhos Matosinhos Matosinhos Almada Almada Almada Almada Almada Porto Santo Porto Santo Porto Santo Porto Santo Porto Santo Others Others Others Others Others

Month May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May January February March April May

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments −92.117 18.976 9.592 −72.689 −95.661 −89.885 16.239 19.336 −60.811 −95.268 −92.027 −2.768 15.070 −60.237 −95.503 −89.810 −11.643 −7.342 −53.994 −96.389 −94.844 18.384 12.601 −50.107 −89.893 −76.384 34.469 21.118 −61.600 −96.875 −93.304 6.328 11.884 −51.408

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal −82.420 12.376 19.306 −71.570 −91.186 −77.146 12.629 24.713 −55.540 −92.832 −83.106 −3.020 10.114 −58.683 −92.926 −80.915 10.335 8.983 −31.885 −86.862 −82.185 7.552 6.534 −48.146 −82.631 −62.910 17.116 68.799 −45.378 −88.901 −79.418 11.480 7.700 −42.580

Overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-residents −97.915 28.121 −1.514 −73.721 −98.750 −97.063 20.929 10.902 −66.609 −97.583 −98.041 −2.386 21.735 −62.438 −99.000 −98.807 −19.742 −12.850 −60.833 −98.519 −97.597 45.171 30.980 −54.501 −99.452 −95.460 46.484 −7.756 −70.170 −99.335 −98.515 4.825 13.370 −54.828

10.925 27.089 −57.756 −95.347 −90.606

14.333 35.468 −58.546 −92.750 −83.205

5.434 13.898 −56.636 −98.316 −97.273

100

Will All Municipalities Be Affected in the Same Way by Changes in Overnight Stays?

Acknowledgments  This work is funded by National Funds through the FCT – Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P., within the scope of the project Refª UIDB/00681/2020. Furthermore we would like to thank the CERNAS Research Centre and the Polytechnic Institute of Viseu for their support.

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Index

A Algarve, 1, 2, 31 B Bank valuations, 50 Bibliometric analysis authors with more documents, 71, 75–79 countries, 71, 83–84 keywords with more occurrences, 69–71 network visualization map, 69 organizations with more documents, 71, 80–82 sources with more documents, 69, 72–74 Brands’ rankings, 68 C Countries of residence monthly average growth rate, over the period 2013-2019, 7, 16, 18–19 monthly average homologous growth rate, over the period 2013-2019, 16, 22–24 monthly growth rate, year 2020, 16, 20–21 monthly homologous growth rate, year 2020, 17, 25–27 non-resident guests in tourist accommodation establishments, 7, 16

NUTS 2 (see NUTS 2) overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-­residents, 7, 17 Covid-19 pandemic, 68 Cultural ecosystem services, 40 Cultural heritage, 68 D Destination Management Organizations (DMOs), 67 Digital platforms, 68 Dominican route, 2 E Economic indicators and matrices of correlation, 24, 31, 35 statistics, 31, 36 and tourism revenues, 48, 50, 52, 62–64 Economic variables, 2 Ecotourism, 2, 40 Effective promotion, 40 Endogenous resources, 40 Entrepreneurship, 53 EURO 2004, 40 European countries, 2 Expo 98, 2 F Food quality, 2 Framework, 33

© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2021 V. J. P. D. Martinho, Economics of Tourism in Portugal, SpringerBriefs in Economics, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-65200-5

103

104 G Gastronomic resources, 68 GDP, 40 Global warming, 68 Governance, 67 H Human mobility, 33 I Innovation, 53 International organizations, 71 L Lisbon, 2 Literature survey, 31 Local communities, 40 Local occurrences/resources, 40 Luxury service, 40 M Marine/pesca-tourism, 40 Marketing plans, 40 Marketing strategies, 40 Matrices of correlation guests and overnight stays, 24, 31, 34–35 positive and significant, 24 and tourism revenues, 48, 50, 52, 62–64 Municipal economic sectors, 68 Municipalities bibliometric analysis (see Bibliometric analysis) climate change, 68 culinary and architectural resources, 68 DMOs, 67 extreme environmental, 68 gastronomic resources, 68 governance, 67 low population density, 68 natural resources, 68 supra-municipal decisions, 67 territorial brands, 68 N National/international events, 40 National lower income sector, 40 Natural resources, 68 Nautical tourism, 2 Nazaré big waves, 40 Network visualization map, 69

Index NUTS 2 average stays in tourist accommodation establishments, 4, 7 guests in tourist accommodation establishments, 3 monthly average growth rate, over the period 2013-2019, 4, 5, 8–9 monthly average homologous growth rate, over the period 2013-2019, 6, 12–13 monthly growth rate, year 2020, 5, 6, 10–11 monthly homologous growth rate, year 2020, 6, 14–15 overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments, 3, 4 overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-­ residents, 4, 6 overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by residents in Portugal, 4, 5 tourism revenues monthly average growth rate, over the period 2013-2019, 42, 43, 45–46 monthly average homologous growth rate, over the period 2013-2019, 43, 44, 49–50 monthly growth rate, year 2020, 43, 47–48 monthly homologous growth rate, year 2020, 44, 51–52 net bed occupancy rate in tourist accommodation establishments, 42, 44 revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments, 41, 42 revenue per available room (RevPAR) in tourist accommodation establishments, 41–43 total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments, 41 P Pandemic’s context, 33 Policy design, 68 Portugal City Brand, 68 Portuguese municipalities monthly average growth rate, over the period 2013-2019, 74, 87–89 monthly average homologous growth rate, over the period 2013-2019, 74, 79, 93–96 monthly growth rate, year 2020, 74, 90–92

Index monthly homologous growth rate, year 2020, 79, 96–99 overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments, 71, 84 overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by non-­ residents, 74, 86 overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments by Portuguese residents, 71, 85 Pousadas de Portugal, 2 Price indexes/exchange rates, 39 R Rural festival events, 67 Rural tourism, 2, 17 S Safety, 2 Slow tourism, 68 Smaller scale tourism revenue, 40 Smart territories, 40 Social media, 69 Social position/status, 40 Socioeconomic activity, 68 Socioeconomic dynamics, 40 Sports facilities, 40 Stakeholders, 40 Stata software procedures, 41 Statistical information country of residence (see Country of residence) NUTS 2 (see NUTS 2) type of establishment (see Type of establishment) Statistics Portugal, 41 Strategic plans, 40 Supra-municipal decisions, 67 Sustainable development, 69 T Territorial brands, 68 Territorial contexts, 68 Tourism activities, 31, 68 Tourism competitiveness, 2, 40, 69, 85 Tourism revenues and economic indicators, 48, 50, 52, 62–64 effective promotion, 40 endogenous resources, 40 evolution, 53 internal factors, 40 marketing plans, 40 marketing strategies, 40

105 and matrices of correlation, 48, 50, 52, 62–64 national lower income sector, 40 price indexes/exchange rates, 39 socioeconomic dynamics, 40 strategic plans, 40 territorial cohesion, 39 vulnerability, 40 Tourism sector business and employment, 2 cyclical activity, 4 evolution, 31, 79 frameworks, 53 legislation and policies, 1 mature market, 1 methodological approach, 2 performance, 7, 50 promotion, 85 revenue, 40 society and economy, 2, 39 and socioeconomic dimensions, 53 vulnerability, 53 Touristic activities, 2 Touristic fishing, 40 Touristic marketing, 2 Transnational cooperation frameworks, 68 Type of establishments, 36 monthly average growth rate, over the period 2013-2019, 17, 19, 28 monthly average homologous growth rate, over the period 2013-2019, 24, 30–31 monthly growth rate, year 2020, 21, 29 monthly homologous growth rate, year 2020, 24, 32–33 overnight stays in tourist accommodation establishments, 17, 27 tourism revenues monthly average growth rate, over the period 2013-2019, 46, 55–56 monthly average homologous growth rate, over the period 2013-2019, 48, 58–59 monthly growth rate, year 2020, 46, 56–57 monthly homologous growth rate, year 2020, 48, 60–61 revenue from accommodation in tourist accommodation establishments, 46, 54 total revenue in tourist accommodation establishments, 46, 53 U UNESCO recognitions, 2