Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence [3 ed.] 1544374267, 9781544374260

Table of contents :
List of Figures

Foreword

Preface

About the Authors

Introduction to the Third Edition

Introduction

Part I: How Do I Get Started?

Chapter 1: Who Are Your Clients?

Chapter 2: What Are the Key Questions?

Chapter 3: What Is the Broader Context for the Analysis?

Chapter 4: How Should I Conceptualize My Product?

Chapter 5: What Is My Analytic Approach?

Chapter 6: Can Collaboration Contribute to a Better Answer?

Part II: Where Is The Information I Need?

Chapter 7: How Do Models Help My Analysis?

Chapter 8: What Types of Information Are Available?

Chapter 9: Can I Trust the Sources?

Chapter 10: How Should I Assess the Reliability of Internet Information?

Part III: What Is My Argument?

Chapter 11: Are My Key Assumptions Well-Founded?

Chapter 12: Can I Make My Case?

Chapter 13: Did I Consider Alternative Hypotheses?

Chapter 14: How Do I Deal With Politicization?

Chapter 15: How Might I Be Spectacularly Wrong?

Part IV: How Do I Convey My Message Effectively?

Chapter 16: Is My Argument Persuasive?

Chapter 17: How Should I Portray Probability, Levels of Confidence, and Quantitative Data?

Chapter 18: How Can Graphics Support My Analysis?

Chapter 19: How Do I Present My Message in the Most Compelling Way?

Chapter 20: How Do I Know When I Am Finished?

Part V: Case Studies

Case Study I: Uncharted Territory

Case Study II: Russian Disinformation

Case Study III: Blackout on the Eastern Seaboard!

Case Study IV: The End of the Era of Aircraft Carriers

Case Study V: Puzzling Food Poisonings in Germany

Case Study VI: The Case of Iraq’s Aluminum Tubes

Glossary of Terms

List of Names

Recommended Readings

US Government Publications

Index

Polecaj historie

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