Crime: Causes, Types and Victims : Causes, Types and Victims [1 ed.] 9781617610875, 9781617289316

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Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved. Crime: Causes, Types and Victims : Causes, Types and Victims, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2011. ProQuest Ebook Central,

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved. Crime: Causes, Types and Victims : Causes, Types and Victims, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2011. ProQuest Ebook Central,

LAW, CRIME AND LAW ENFORCEMENT

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

CRIME: CAUSES, TYPES AND VICTIMS

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LAW, CRIME AND LAW ENFORCEMENT

CRIME: CAUSES, TYPES AND VICTIMS

ALICIA E. HASSELM

Copyright © 2011. Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated. All rights reserved.

EDITOR

Nova Science Publishers, Inc. New York

Crime: Causes, Types and Victims : Causes, Types and Victims, Nova Science Publishers, Incorporated, 2011. ProQuest Ebook Central,

Copyright © 2011 by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means: electronic, electrostatic, magnetic, tape, mechanical photocopying, recording or otherwise without the written permission of the Publisher. For permission to use material from this book please contact us: Telephone 631-231-7269; Fax 631-231-8175 Web Site: http://www.novapublishers.com

NOTICE TO THE READER The Publisher has taken reasonable care in the preparation of this book, but makes no expressed or implied warranty of any kind and assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. No liability is assumed for incidental or consequential damages in connection with or arising out of information contained in this book. The Publisher shall not be liable for any special, consequential, or exemplary damages resulting, in whole or in part, from the readers’ use of, or reliance upon, this material. Any parts of this book based on government reports are so indicated and copyright is claimed for those parts to the extent applicable to compilations of such works. Independent verification should be sought for any data, advice or recommendations contained in this book. In addition, no responsibility is assumed by the publisher for any injury and/or damage to persons or property arising from any methods, products, instructions, ideas or otherwise contained in this publication. This publication is designed to provide accurate and authoritative information with regard to the subject matter covered herein. It is sold with the clear understanding that the Publisher is not engaged in rendering legal or any other professional services. If legal or any other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent person should be sought. FROM A DECLARATION OF PARTICIPANTS JOINTLY ADOPTED BY A COMMITTEE OF THE AMERICAN BAR ASSOCIATION AND A COMMITTEE OF PUBLISHERS.

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LIBRARY OF CONGRESS CATALOGING-IN-PUBLICATION DATA Crime : causes, types and victims / editor, Alicia E. Hasselm. p. cm. Includes index. ISBN 978-1-61761-087-5 (ebk.) 1. Crime. 2. Victims of crimes. I. Hasselm, Alicia E. HV6025.C7134 2009 364--dc22 2010022691

Published by Nova Science Publishers, Inc. † New York

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CONTENTS

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Preface

vii

Chapter 1

False Confessions: The Role of Police Deception in Interrogation and Jurors‘ Perceptions of the Techniques and Their Outcomes William Douglas Woody, Krista D. Forrest and Joshua M. Stewart

Chapter 2

Criminals and Warriors: The Use of Criminals for the Purpose of War—The Serbian Paramilitary Units Maria Vivod

37

Chapter 3

The Linking Mechanisms between Personal Victimization and Fear of Crime: Testing a Theory of Psychological Incapacitation Helmut Hirtenlehner and Gorazd Meško

65

Chapter 4

Learning from Crime: The Case of the ‗Tláhuac‘ Lynching Jaime Santos-Reyes, Samuel Olmos-Peña and Daniel Santos-Reyes

87

Chapter 5

The Relationship between Police Effectiveness and Crime Rates Isabel-Maria Garcia-Sanchez, Luis Rodriguez-Dominguez and Javier Parra-Dominguez

109

Chapter 6

An Exploration of Child Exploitation in a Juror Simulation Study Julie L. Dempsey, Joanna D. Pozzulo, Evelyn Maeder and Roberta Sinclair

127

Chapter 7

Jurors‘ Perceptions of Juvenile Offenders Tried in Adult Criminal Court Margaret C. Stevenson, Cynthia J. Najdowski, Bette L. Bottoms, Katlyn M. Sorenson and Sylvia P. Perry

141

Chapter 8

Effects of Feedback on Self-Assessed and Actual Abilities to Tell Lies Eitan Elaad

155

Chapter 9

From Victim to Perpetrator: The Impact of Community Violence Kareena McAloney

167

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vi

Contents

Chapter 10

Capillary Electrophoretic Microdevice for Highly Sensitive Short Tandem Repeat Genotyping Yuchao Chen, Jong Young Choi, Chanjoo Lee and Tae Seok Seo

179

Chapter 11

The Macro Economics of Illegal Activity Yaron Zelekha

193

Chapter 12

Implications of X Chromosome Markers in Forensic Genetics H. Afonso Costa, M. Carvalho and M.J. Anjos

201

Chapter 13

On the Roles of Spatial Interactions and Heteroscedasticity in Crime Modeling Kazuhiko Kakamu, Yoshihiro Ohtsuka and Syuhei Arasawa

211

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Index

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221

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PREFACE Crime is the breach of rules or laws for which some governing authority can ultimately prescribe a conviction. Individual human societies may each define crime and crimes differently. Crime has been constant in the history of mankind and is a pervasive phenomenon affecting all societies. This book presents current research in the study of crime including such topics as the role of police deception in interrogation and juror's perceptions of these techniques; the link between personal victimization and fear of crime; police effectiveness and crime rates; and juvenile offenders tried in adult criminal court. Chapter 1 explores police deception during interrogation with emphasis on false-evidence ploys and jurors‘ perceptions of false-evidence ploys. The authors discuss the current literature on false confessions in response to police deception, and then they review ethical, legal, and constitutional questions related to police deception. Next, the authors extend these ideas into an important area of emerging scholarship: jurors‘ perceptions of police deception. As the triers of fact in most criminal trials, jurors must decide verdicts in the context of each case, and, once a judge has admitted a confession into a trial, jurors must decide the defendant‘s guilt in light of his or her confession. Can jurors rise to these legal expectations? The authors review recent and ongoing research on jurors‘ perceptions of false-evidence ploys and conclude with recommendations for police interrogators, attorneys, legislators, and scholars. As presented in Chapter 2, during the Titoist regime of former Yugoslavia, the only measure of loyalty toward the state was the individual‘s ‗patriotic‘ feelings, which resulted in introducing the practice of the State Security to employ individuals with criminal records, or with criminal inclinations, to do the ‗dirty work‘ abroad in the elimination of the state‘s opponents. This practice continued at the beginning of the nineties when state opponents were seen in former compatriots. The Yugoslav/Serbian State Security employed individuals with criminal records in the support, organization, leadership and management of several paramilitary units in armed conflicts on former territories of the federation. It resulted in numerous crimes, a widely developed clandestine economy, war crimes and genocide, and created a form of institutionalized crime and criminal state institutions. Chapter 3 is concerned with an empirical examination of a cognitive theory of fear of crime that strives to bring contradictory results on the relationship between personal victimization and fear of crime into line. Its main idea is a process of compensation between two cognitions: the perception of personal risk and the perception of the seriousness of the consequences of a potential victimization. If personal victimization leads to an adjustment of

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Alicia E. Hasselm

exaggerated consequence expectations to a less painful reality – to a decrease of perceived negative impact – this could cancel out the fear-enhancing effects of an increase in perceived victimization risk. If no reassessment of the consequences associated with victimization takes place, personal victimization should generate more fear of crime, mediated only by higher perceived risk. Based on survey data from five successor states of the former Republic of Yugoslavia structural equation models are estimated. The results suggest rejecting many core assumptions of a ― theory of psychological incapacitation‖. Chapter 4 presents some preliminary results of the analysis of the ‗Tláhuac‘ lynching incident that occurred in Mexico City on 23 November 2004. The fatal lynching incident occurred when an angry mob burnt two police officers alive and seriously injured another after mistaking them for child kidnappers. The third policeman who was finally rescued by colleagues (almost four hours after the attack began) suffered serious injuries. The methodology for the analysis has been the application of the MORT (Management Over-sight Risk Three) model. The MORT may be regarded as a structured checklist in the form of a complex ‗fault tree‘ that is intended to ensure that all aspects of an organization‘s management are looked into when assessing the possible causes of an incident or accident. The model has been extensively used to analyse past failure of socio-technical systems such as, oil and gas industry, transport, etc. It may be argued that this is the first time that such an approach has been applied to the case of a failed social system. A number of causal factors leading to the incident have been highlighted by the technique. It is hoped that by conducting such analysis lessons can be learnt so that incidents such as the case of ‗Tláhuac‘ can be prevented in the future. Crime is a pervasive and stressing phenomenon and a problem for which there is no lack of people willing to provide incomplete, contradictory and incorrect explanations (Fisch, 2000; Ajagunna, 2006). In this sense, empirical studies are oriented to identifying the causes of crimes, so that politicians can design policy programs. Considered overall, previous literature has focused on analysing the impact of several socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of populations -such as poverty, age and gender structure, and immigration- on delinquency, in order to test the relationships between them according to traditional theories (i.e. Marvell and Moody, 1991; Ousey, 2000; McCall et al., 2008; Ousey and Kubrin, 2009). The results obtained have evidenced that the proportion of young males in the population, the percentage of people unemployed or without jobs, and the relative size of the minorities are factors that arise as strong positive drivers of violent crimes. In contrast, there is scarce evidence about the effect of police effectiveness on criminal outcomes, although governments worldwide are making important efforts to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of police services in a context of rising crime (Freeman, 1992; Shea, 2009). It should be emphasized that effectiveness means task performance; in other words, effective police services are those which solve problems: solve crimes and put more criminals behind bars (Skogan, 1976). In this sense, the aim of Chapter 5 is to observe the impact of police effectiveness on crime rates for the Spanish context. The authors estimate several dependence models that explain the effect of the level of police effectiveness and several categories of effectiveness on global crimes, as well as on different types of crimes, controlling for the influence of a broad set of socioeconomic and demographic factors. More specifically, the authors use panel data models for a macro-analysis of 52 Spanish police departments from 2001 to 2006.

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Preface

ix

Mock jurors (N = 317) read a simulated trial transcript involving a case of internet luring with the intent of producing child pornography. Chapter 6 examined the influence of victim characteristics, specifically, race of the victim (First Nations vs. Thai vs. Caucasian), gender of the victim (male vs. female), and age of the victim (8 vs. 12 years) on jurors‘ perceptions of the victim and defendant, as well as guilt ratings. Race, gender, and age of the victim were not found to significantly influence jurors‘ perceptions of the victim or defendant. Overall, juror‘s rated the victim more positively than the defendant. Victim characteristics were not found to influence guilt ratings of the defendant. Juror‘s assigned high guilt ratings across victim conditions. The data suggest that regardless of victim characteristics, the jurors‘ held the defendant responsible for his actions. Limitations and suggestions for future research are discussed. To preview Chapter 7, the research reviewed typically employs a mock trial paradigm in which adult participants play the role of jurors by considering a criminal case involving a juvenile defendant who is being tried in adult criminal court. The case is typically presented via summarized written scenarios or trial transcripts. Mock jurors render a verdict (sometimes individually and sometimes after deliberating within a jury) and make other judgments about the case (e.g., the extent to which a defendant is credible or responsible for an alleged crime). This methodology allows researchers to have the control necessary to understand the causal influence of certain factors (e.g., defendant age or gender) on case judgments while all other factors remain constant, which is otherwise impossible when passively examining actual trials. Although highly controlled laboratory experiments run the risk of artificiality (e.g., Diamond, 1997), researchers often attempt to combat this risk by employing realistic case materials. Chapter 8 examined how feedback on lie-telling affects the "illusion of transparency" which causes liars to assume that their lies are more easily detected than they actually were. To this end, 75 undergraduate students were asked to self-assess their abilities to detect lies and truths in others, and to tell lies and truths convincingly themselves. It emerged that participants scored their lie-telling ability lower than their other abilities. The abilities were tested in a lie-telling task in which participants received false feedback about the detection of their lies. When the feedback implied that they had avoided detection (confirming feedback), participants' self-assessment of their lie-telling capacity increased. When the feedback suggested that their lies had been detected (challenging feedback), self-assessed lie-telling and truth-telling abilities declined. Liars were more often detected after receiving challenging feedback than before receiving it. Feedback effects on actual detection of lies were not observed for the confirming feedback condition. Practical implications of the present results in criminal interrogation and in the courts are discussed. While victims and perpetrators are often viewed as two separate and distinct groups, there is considerable evidence to suggest that they share particular qualities and characteristics. There is well documented evidence to suggest that particular lifestyle and environmental characteristics contribute to the development of a criminal lifestyle and to a greater propensity to victimisation. These have to date mainly concerned the family environment, previous criminality and the social environment; however a growing body of evidence suggests that prior experience of violence, whether in the community or in the family can contribute to the development of a violent or criminal lifestyle. In societies which have experienced high levels of intergroup conflict, and a proliferation of violent activity the experience of victimisation may have severe consequences for individual development and the larger society. Chapter 9

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aims to explore the impact of victimisation on criminality and in particular on the perpetration of violent crime within the context of community violence, civil conflict and war. The chapter will focus on how experiences of violence and conflict, vicariously and directly, shape the development of criminality. Lab-on-a-chip (LOC) or microfabrication technology has paved its way in a variety of chemical and biological applications as a miniaturized analytical tool due to the benefits such as small sample consumption, high throughput synthesis and screening capability, fast analysis time and portability. Recently, the forensic human identification based on short tandem repeat (STR) genotyping has been performed on a microdevice platform, and the superior performance has been demonstrated. In Chapter 10, the authors focus on the capillary electrophoretic microdevice for highly sensitive and high-throughput STR genotyping which plays an important role in forensic investigations, particularly for sexual assault cases, paternity test, missing person identification, and evolutionary studies. To improve the sensitivity of STR genotyping analysis on a microdevice, the authors adopt the energy transfer fluorescent dye labels to increase the laser induced fluorescence (LIF) signal of multiplex STR PCR products, and a mini Y STR system to enhance PCR efficiency and success rate for degraded DNA by reducing the PCR amplicon size. In addition, the samplestacking step during capillary electrophoresis (CE) concentrates the PCR products in a defined region of a microchannel, resulting in the enhanced STR peak intensities in the electropherogram. A 96-lane microfabricated capillary array electrophoresis (CAE) system can perform the 96 sample STR typing in a high-throughput manner in less than 20 min with a single-base resolution. These advanced microtechnologies will accelerate the forensic STR typing process in a more sensitive, high-speed, and cost-effective way. There are a number of mechanisms through which illegal activity can affect economic activity. The purpose of Chapter 11 is to discuss the main mechanisms, to examine the economic literature on the subject, to develop a theoretical model of private investment that takes into account the effect of illegal activity and to draw some policy implications on the basis of all that. As explained in Chapter 12, typing X-chromosome markers is important to complement the analysis of Y and autosomal short tandem repeats. In males, the X and Y chromosomes are hemizigotics. In females the X chromosome acts like the autosomes. The main field of the X-chromosome markers is the kinship investigations, especially investigations of mother/son, father/daughter and the deficiency kinship tests that can be better solved with the help of the X-chromosome markers. When the alleged father is not present, the X-chromosome investigation is more powerful because the exclusion power for X-STR in these cases is high. Is very helpful to establish the relationship between distant relatives and is a very useful tool to relate families in the context of world war, mass disasters and migration. In the criminology field, the X-chromosome markers are important to identify the contribution of feminine traces in male aggressor or victims. Before forensic application, is important to have at one disposal population information that document the population‘s genetic profile and the genetic variation of the X-chromosome markers (allelic distribution, frequency of null alleles, mutation rates and analysis of linkage). Among other diseases, there is a chromosomal variation related to the X chromosome that is frequently found in humans: Klinefelter syndrome that appears in approximately 0.17% of men. Since most of Klinefelter syndrome cases are not diagnosed affected individuals have normal social lives without knowing their condition which can reveal additional information to forensics.

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Chapter 13 considers the roles of spatial interactions and heteroscedasticity in the crime models from a Bayesian point of view. The relationships between number of crimes and socio-economic variables are examined in empirical works. In addition, several effects like spatial interactions are taken into accounts in the recent studies. However, the importance of the effects is not considered in detail. Thus, the authors compare several models by marginal likelihood focusing on spatial interactions and heteroscedasticity. From the empirical example, we can observe that both effects play important roles in crime modeling.

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Chapter 1

FALSE CONFESSIONS: THE ROLE OF POLICE DECEPTION IN INTERROGATION AND JURORS’ PERCEPTIONS OF THE TECHNIQUES AND THEIR OUTCOMES William Douglas Woody1, Krista D. Forrest2 and Joshua M. Stewart1 1

2

University of Northern Colorado, USA University of Nebraska Kearney, USA

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Abstract Our chapter explores police deception during interrogation with emphasis on false-evidence ploys and jurors‟ perceptions of false-evidence ploys. We discuss the current literature on false confessions in response to police deception, and then we review ethical, legal, and constitutional questions related to police deception. Next, we extend these ideas into an important area of emerging scholarship: jurors‟ perceptions of police deception. As the triers of fact in most criminal trials, jurors must decide verdicts in the context of each case, and, once a judge has admitted a confession into a trial, jurors must decide the defendant‟s guilt in light of his or her confession. Can jurors rise to these legal expectations? We review recent and ongoing research on jurors‟ perceptions of false-evidence ploys and conclude with recommendations for police interrogators, attorneys, legislators, and scholars.

Introduction This chapter explores police deception during interrogation with emphasis on falseevidence ploys and jurors‟ perceptions of false-evidence ploys. We discuss the current literature on false confessions, and we include several examples as well as data from the recent explosion of laboratory studies of false confessions. We then review ethical, legal, and constitutional questions related to police deception. Next, we extend these ideas into an

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important area of emerging scholarship: jurors‟ perceptions of police deception. We end with recommendations for scholars, attorneys, and interrogators. Jurors have tremendous responsibilities as they evaluate confessions. As the triers of fact in most criminal trials, jurors must decide verdicts in the context of each case, and, once a judge has admitted a confession into a trial, jurors must decide the defendant‟s guilt in light of his or her confession. In a case in which a defendant falsely confesses, jurors serve as the final legal safeguard for the defendant; if jurors do not acquit the defendant in these cases, the defendant becomes another victim in the criminal justice system. Can jurors rise to these legal expectations? How do jurors perceive confessions generated with and without false-evidence ploys, and how do jurors decide cases involving police deception? These are some of the most critical questions in the study of the consequences of police interrogation; however, the study of jurors‟ perceptions of and decisions in response to police deception has only just begun (Woody & Forrest, 2009). We conclude the chapter with a review of recent and ongoing research on jurors‟ perceptions of false-evidence ploys and close with recommendations for police interrogators, attorneys, legislators, and scholars.

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False Confessions Throughout history nations have relied upon their legal systems to distribute justice and maintain peace. The Greek trilogy of Oresteia serves as a classic example of how justice can evolve into a cycle of retribution and vehemence without the intervention of an unbiased party such as a government. In this Greek tale the family of Agamemnon is stricken by hatred for one another, which results in the deaths of several family members. This cycle of violence was only stopped by the litigation system in Athens (Aeschylus, 1992). Current forms of government legal systems generally distribute justice in a more effective manner than vigilantism. These legal systems remain far from perfect, particularly when a suspect falsely confesses to a crime. A false confession involves an innocent person falsely implicating himor herself in a crime. The histories of English Common Law and the United States Legal System contain many cases in which an innocent individual bears the burden of a crime he or she did not commit.

Historic Case Studies William Harrison collected rent from his employer‟s tenants in Gloucestershire, England (Moran, 2003). However, in 1660, Harrison disappeared while collecting rent, leaving behind only a few personal items on a local highway. Authorities suspected John Perry, Harrison‟s assistant, in the disappearance. Perry declared his innocence, yet during interrogation Perry admitted to killing Harrison and dumping the body in a swamp with the assistance of his own brother and mother. Despite the fact that a body was never found, John Perry, his mother, and brother were executed on the evidence of John‟s confession alone. Oddly enough, Harrison returned to Gloucestershire years later after escaping from being kidnapped, sent to Turkey, and sold into slavery (Moran, 2003). Jesse and Stephen Boorn afforded American legal history with a similar case. In 1812, Russell Colvin disappeared in Vermont and authorities suspected his brothers-in-law Jesse

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and Stephen, largely due to Russell‟s frequent arguments with his brothers-in-law over operation of the family farm (Leo, Drizin, Neufeld, Hall & Vatner, 2006). Authorities did not act on their suspicions until seven years later when Amos Boorn, Jesse and Stephen‟s uncle, dreamt that Jesse and Stephen murdered Russell and hid his body in a nearby storage shed. Amos‟ dream led local authorities to the shed, where they found personal possessions of Russell but no evidence of foul play. Days later a dog uncovered bones in the vicinity of the shed. Authorities confiscated the bones for examination and hastily concluded that they were human. With mounting evidence and suspicion, Jesse and Stephen Boorn confessed to killing their brother-in-law, believing that cooperation was their best option (Warden, 2006). Unfortunately, after the brothers‟ confessions, a thorough examination of the bones revealed greater similarity to animal rather than human bones, and this conclusion led to the exclusion of the bones as evidence. With no evidence of foul play and no body, the prosecution appeared to have no case against the brothers. Yet, because they confessed before the evidence was discredited, the brothers went to trial on evidence of their confessions alone. Due to the incriminating nature of their confessions, in November of 1819 the court sentenced the brothers to death despite the lack of any material evidence and set the execution date for January 28, 1820. Jesse managed to decrease his sentence to life in prison after a plea for clemency; however, Stephen‟s sentence stood. Newspapers claimed that divine intervention in the form of Amos‟ dream led to the Boorns being brought to justice (Warden, 2006). In a stroke of luck, James Whelpley, a man who suspected Russell Colvin to be alive and well, heard about the decision of the Boorn case. Whelpley found Colvin in Dover, New Jersey, but could not persuade Colvin to aid in exonerating the Boorns. However, with some careful planning, Whelpley tricked Colvin into helping the Boorns. Whelpley employed a young woman to entice Colvin to travel with her to New York. Colvin agreed but was dismayed to find that the woman disappeared soon after their arrival. In the second leg of the plan, Colvin‟s stagecoach back to New Jersey was re-routed to Vermont. Whelpley‟s plan ended with a bewildered Colvin arriving to a curious crowd of Vermont citizens on December 22, 1819. The Boorn brothers‟ subsequent exoneration gained substantial public attention. The newspapers portrayed the Boorn case as a fluke in an otherwise functioning legal system; thus no follow-up reform measures were ever investigated (Warden, 2006). Unfortunately, the United States legal system includes many additional false confession cases since that strange trial in Vermont. In 1989, Trisha Meili was sexually assaulted in New York City‟s Central Park while out for an evening jog (Meili, 2009). Police interrogated five teens as suspects in the crime, and all five teens confessed to the crime. At the time, the suspects believed that the easiest way to end their continued interrogation was to simply confess and later explain their innocence (Kassin, Drizin, Grisso, Gudjonsson, Leo & Redlich, 2010). Yet, the court charged and convicted the five teens for the alleged act. It was not until 2002, 13 years later, that DNA evidence demonstrated the innocence of the five previously convicted teens (Innocence Project, 2010a). Although it would be convenient to believe that only a few cases of false confessions exist and that such confessions are flukes in an otherwise reliable legal system, our past as well as the present suggest otherwise. Past as well as contemporary examples of false confessions afford us with knowledge on the types of false confessions that occur as well as the primary and secondary costs associated with false confessions. Some of these costs can be quantified, but others, such as psychological torment, cannot. This history has also led to laboratory research on false

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confession to improve understanding of why people falsely confess and what factors increase the likelihood of false confessions.

Types of False Confessions Voluntary False Confession False confessions in the legal system can occur in one of three major categories, voluntary, compliant, and internalized confessions. A voluntary confession occurs when an innocent individual confesses to an alleged offence out of feelings of guilt, a desire for notoriety, mental illness, or some other reason. This type of confession involves no coercion, deception or promise of leniency from police officers or other officials (Kassin et al., 2010; Kassin & Wrightsman, 1985). A voluntary false confession is exemplified in the “Crime of the Century” when Charles Augustus Lindbergh, Jr. was kidnapped from his home in New Jersey in 1932. Over 200 innocent people voluntarily confessed to the crime. In the end only one individual was charged for the crime, and he was not one of the many who confessed to the kidnapping (Kassin et al., 2010).

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Compliant False Confession In the second kind of false confession the individual complies with police attempts to gain a confession perhaps due to physical or psychological coercion, yet the suspect does not believe that he or she committed the crime in question (Kassin et al., 2010). Some of these cases involve egregious police brutality used to convince suspects to confess even when suspects know they are innocent; courts have rejected confessions that result from physical coercion or torture (Brown v. Mississippi, 1936). In the early 1900s, police moved away from physical coercion, sometimes called the third degree, in part due to these concerns (Leo, 1992). The individual who provides a compliant false confession may do so to stop the torture or because he or she feels that he or she is going to be convicted despite his or her innocence and that compliance is the best option. Individuals may also confess to escape the unpleasant police interrogation (Woody & Forrest, 2009); this phenomenon figured strongly in the confessions in the Central Park jogger case, in which the confessing teens felt that they could clear their names after they escaped the hostile police interrogation (Kassin et al., 2010).

Internalized False Confession Internalized false confessions occur when the innocent individual confesses and actually believes that he or she committed the crime in question (Kassin et al., 2010). Michael Crowe, who was 14 at the time, confessed to killing his 11-year-old sister. Police isolated Michael from his parents, interrogated him for approximately 10 hours, had him write hypothetical murder scenarios, and eventually persuaded him that he had a mental disorder in which a violent side of his personality sometimes dominated his actions and left him with no memory of these action (Innocence Project, 2010b). Police led Michael to believe that this “evil” side of his personality overtook him and killed his sister. After several days of interrogation,

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Michael believed the officers‟ explanation and confessed to the crime. Fortunately, the charges against Michael were eventually dropped after police found a drifter with clothes stained with his sister‟s blood (Innocence Project, 2010b).

The Costs of False Confessions

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Primary Costs of False Confessions The primary costs of a false confession are those that weigh most directly upon the innocent but convicted individual. Often when an individual falsely confesses to a crime he or she loses his or her reputation, time, money and must endure the psychological consequences of taking responsibility for a crime he or she did not commit (Kassin & Gudjonsson, 2004; Woody & Forrest, 2009). Even when an individual has been exonerated by DNA or other evidence, the stigma persists; background checks reveal the crime and, on a lesser note, that the individual has been cleared of the crime. For many potential employers the presence of information about the erroneous conviction perpetuates the prejudice exonerated individuals must face (Denver Post, 2009). Jeff Deskovic paid these primary costs for nearly 16 years, convicted of a crime he did not commit. In 1989, a 15 year-old girl never returned home after going out to take pictures for her photography class. Days after her disappearance her body was found; an assailant had beaten, sexually assaulted, and strangled her. Police came to suspect her classmate, Jeff Deskovic, who was 16-years-old at the time, because he appeared distraught over the murder and eager to help police solve the case. Police asked Deskovic to submit to a polygraph test, and he agreed. Hours before testing, police gave Deskovic all the coffee he could drink, but no food. Deskovic was then interrogated for approximately six hours without the presence of family or legal counsel. During the interrogation police told Deskovic that he had failed one of the many polygraph tests he took. Deskovic initially maintained his innocence, but the interrogation finally ended with an emotionally distraught Deskovic curled up under a table, sobbing his confession to police (Innocence Project, 2010a). The district attorney charged Deskovic with the crime. Once in trial, DNA evidence collected from the victim did not implicate Deskovic. Despite no material evidence linking Deskovic to the crime, he was convicted and sentenced to 15 years in prison to life based on his confession alone (Innocence Project, 2010a). In 2006, with the help of the Innocence Project, DNA from the victim was tested with new technology and compared to a database of DNA from known sex offenders. The DNA from the victim matched Steven Cunningham, who was already in prison for strangling his girl-friend‟s sister. When confronted with the evidence, Cunningham admitted to the 1989 crime for which Deskovic had been convicted (Innocence Project, 2010a). Deskovic was released nearly 16 years after his conviction. Due to improper interrogation methods and court proceedings, Deskovic lost 16 years of his young life, suffered great emotional trauma, and still carries the stigma of an accused murderer and sex offender. The primary costs of a false confession include these personal costs that Deskovic paid (Innocence Project, 2010a; Woody & Forrest, 2009).

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Secondary Costs of False Confessions What are the secondary costs of false confessions? First, false confessions elicited by police or other legal officials undermine the credibility of the justice system. The Innocence Project has documented hundreds of wrongful convictions in the United States, some of which involved false confessions (Innocence Project, 2010a). Many of these cases specifically involve police lies about physical evidence, witnesses, polygraph tests and other forms of incriminating information in order to obtain a confession. We present implications of these and other forms of deception in our subsequent discussion of ethics, legality, and police deception. In some cases, false evidence has even been planted at a crime scene to aid in gaining a false confession (Innocence Project, 2010a). When this information is made public it reduces the community‟s trust in police officers and their methods. Indeed, such examples may lead citizens to believe that police officers should be feared. In addition to a general sense of distrust, a false confession leads to the actual perpetrator remaining at large. In the case of Jeff Deskovic, the real culprit who sexually assaulted and murdered a 15-year-old girl remained free to later kill another person while Deskovic paid for the crime. Had police interrogated Deskovic less coercively, they potentially could have spared him 16 years of false incarceration and saved the life of a later victim. Additionally, the community, victims, and relatives of victims are also wronged with a false sense of accomplished justice when false confessions and subsequent wrongful convictions occur (Innocence Project, 2010a). Despite their beliefs, justice has not been done, and victims‟, relatives‟, and community members‟ illusory feelings of satisfaction may ease the pressure on police to continue to seek the actual perpetrator. False confessions also waste defendant and taxpayer dollars. Over time, the funding and energy needed accumulates across the police interrogation, the resulting trial, potential appeals, the incarceration and even potential execution of the individual who falsely confessed. If law enforcement is fortunate enough to subsequently catch the real culprit, the costs of the legal proceedings must be paid a second time. To provide an exemplar of the costs associated with a trial, a 2008 murder case in Greeley, Colorado that resulted in the conviction of a suspect cost the district attorney‟s office $13,256.93 and police department $5,536.43. The defendant in the case was ordered to pay for the district attorney‟s and police department‟s costs as well as to pay a restitution fee to the victims of the crime of $9,870 (Young, 2008). This is a relatively straightforward case without an appeal in a community where legal costs pale in comparison to other cities. For individuals who are later demonstrated to have been falsely convicted, the state and local government may compensate the victim of the mistaken conviction and imprisonment. The criteria an exoneree must meet to be compensated differ from state to state and are disheartening in light of what we now know about police interrogation and false confessions. For example, in Nebraska, victims of mistaken and imprisonment cannot qualify for compensation if they have made false confessions or statements falsely implicating others unless those statements are proven to result from law enforcement coercion (Innocence Project, 2010c). These compensation fees can range from thousands to millions of dollars (except in states such as Nebraska, where the maximum is $500,000, Criminal Code, 29 NE. Rev. Stat. §§ 46-04, 2009); in cases of police misconduct, awards may be higher (Associated Press, 2010). Obviously a false conviction comes with a lofty price tag (Innocence Project, 2010c).

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False Confession Cases In 1987, Dennis Halstead, John Restivo, and John Kogut were convicted for the 1984 sexual assault and murder of a 16- year-old girl. Police built their case against the three men by interrogating Kogut for more than eighteen hours and testing him with a polygraph. Police interrogators informed Kogut that he had failed the lie detector test and eventually gained a confession from Kogut. Kogut implicated Halstead and Restivo, stating that the three had picked up the victim in Restivo‟s van, raped her, and then strangled her with a nylon cord. In searching Restivo‟s van, hairs were found which where believed to belong to the victim. Despite that fact that DNA evidence taken from the victim did not match any of the three men, they were all convicted, largely based on their confessions (Innocence Project, 2010a). Only in 2005 were Dennis Halstead, John Restivo, and John Kogut released from prison. After their convictions, several organizations reexamined the case, including The Innocence Project, Centurion Ministries, Cutler and Pickering, Wilmer and Pace Law School‟s Postconviction Clinic (Innocence Project, 2010a). At the request of these advocacy groups the police tested a vaginal swab from the victim that had never been used in trial; results showed once again that DNA collected from the victim did not match any of the convicted defendants. In addition, the hairs from Restivo‟s van were later found to have been a result of contamination from the forensics lab rather than the victim (Innocence Project, 2010a). On February 5, 1985, 68-year-old Helen Wilson was sexually assaulted and murdered in her apartment. Despite a lack of physical evidence, police eventually came to suspect Thomas Winslow, Joseph White, Ada JoAnn Taylor, James Dean, Debra Shelden, and Kathy Gonzalez (Innocence Project, 2010a). Four years after the crime, police questioned Thomas Winslow while he was in prison on an unrelated incident. Police told Winslow that if he cooperated he would be released from his current sentence. Winslow implicated White in the murder. Police then questioned Winslow‟s friend Taylor, who implicated the rest of the group in the crime (Innocence Project, 2010a). District attorneys charged Winslow, White, Taylor, Dean, Shelden and Gonzalez with the crime. Prosecutors later came to believe that White was responsible for sexually assaulting and killing the victim while the others simply aided in the act. Prosecutors offered lighter sentences to Winslow, Taylor, Dean, Shelden and Gonzalez if they confessed in aiding and abetting second degree murder and agreed to testify against White. Winslow refused, but the other four complied and testified against White (Innocence Project, 2010a). White was sentenced to life in prison without parole, Winslow pleaded no contest and was sentenced to 50 years in prison, and Taylor, Dean, Shelden and Gonzalez received 10 years for aiding and abetting second degree murder. White later appealed his conviction based on the finding that DNA evidence did not connect him to the crime. After repeated denials of appeal, the DNA from the crime scene was formally analyzed and did not implicate any of the convicted defendants. However, DNA collected at the scene matched Bruce Allen Smith, originally the primary suspect in the case. All charges were dropped against the five convicted felons, and in 2009 the state of Nebraska pardoned all five (Innocence Project, 2010a). In 2000, Corethian Bell was charged with the murder of his mother, Netta Bell. Corethian Bell called police after he found his mother‟s murdered body in her apartment. Once police arrived on the scene, they arrested Bell as a suspect. Police interrogated Bell for

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approximately 50 hours in order to obtain a confession. At one point Bell was even struck on the head by one of the interrogation officers. Subsequently, the interrogating officers obtained a signed false confession from Bell for the murder of his mother. Bell argued that he confessed to the murder to escape the interrogation. Due largely to his confession, Bell was convicted for an act he did not commit (MacArthur Justice Center, 2006). Six years after Bell‟s conviction, at the request of Bell‟s legal counsel, the analysis of DNA evidence from the crime scene of Netta Bell‟s apartment did not connect the crime to Bell but rather to a convicted sexual offender. Bell was released from prison as a result (MacArthur Justice Center, 2006). The prevalence of documented false confession cases raises questions of frequency and likelihood.

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Estimates of Frequency The previously mentioned false confession cases are by no means isolated incidents of false confessions. Currently the Innocence Project (2010a) lists over 135 cases in which individuals falsely confessed to a crime; 60 of those individuals were subsequently convicted of crimes they did not commit. High false confession prevalence is demonstrated in a survey of 10, 363 youth in Iceland ranging in ages from 15-24, 19.8% stated that they had been interrogated by police in relation to a crime (Gudjonsson, Sigurdsson, Asgeirsdottir, & Sigfusdottir 2007). Of those who had been interrogated, 8.8% claimed they falsely confessed during their interrogation. Over one third of those who claimed they had falsely confessed said they were convicted of the crime in question. Within this survey 912 people reported falsely confessing to a crime and 337 of those individuals reported being convicted (Gudjonsson et al., 2007). Even with survey data on false confessions and agencies such as The Innocence Project, however, it remains nearly impossible to estimate the total number of false confessions (Kassin & Gudjonsson, 2004). Several barriers make it difficult to obtain an estimate. First, no government or private organization keeps an exhaustive list of false confessions (Kassin et al., 2010). Individuals in internalized confession cases may actually believe that they committed the crime and thus not appeal their convictions. In other cases, an individual who falsely confessed may be denied appeal after a conviction. In some cases, a false confession might have been voluntary and admissible in court (Kassin et al., 2010). Thus, false confession cases can slip through agencies and organizations such as the Innocence Project. Another setback to accurately estimate false confessions is the difference between confessions and admissions. The ninth edition of Black‟s Law Dictionary (Garner, 2009) distinguishes between confessions and admissions in that in confessions the defendant or suspect admits to all facts or allegations in relation to a crime or incident such that a conviction can be attained. In admission, however, a suspect or defendant simply acknowledges the truth or falsity of a fact or set of facts, yet this is not admitting to committing the crime in question. Despite these apparent differences, courts have used similar criteria and identical standards of proof (i.e., preponderance of evidence, as discussed subsequently) to evaluate admissibility of admissions and confessions into court (see People v. Lira, 1981). The line between these two concepts remains thin (Kassin & Gudjonsson, 2004), and as a result cases involving false admissions and false confessions may become classified incorrectly by state, federal or non-governmental organizations. Thus, false

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confession case estimates may or may not include false admissions (Kassin & Gudjonsson, 2004). As so much variability exists in how false confessions are classified, monitored, and documented it is best not to relay on estimates to determine the prevalence of false confessions.

False Confession Studies

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False confessions have also been produced in controlled laboratory settings. The ethical and practical limitations of scholarship often involve university students as participants and generally preclude extremely realistic interrogation settings (e.g., long interrogations, the suspect‟s justified fears of the potential for actual conviction and incarceration, etc.), and critics have challenged findings on these grounds (e.g., Inbau et al., 2001; Jayne & Buckley, 1999; Reid & Associares, 2010). Additionally, critics have challenged other aspects of the research methodologies. For example, Reid and Associares (2010) noted that participants may confess to hitting a forbidden key in a particular simulation paradigm (as described subsequently) but argued that participants may confess because they are not sure that they hit the key. Reid and Associates (2010) argued that this simulation does not fit most criminal acts because a suspect would generally not be unsure whether he or she committed an intentional homicide. Reid and Associates (2010), Inbau et al. (2001), Jayne and Buckley (1999), and others challenge the findings described below for these and other grounds, including the potential for researcher biases and unclear distinctions between interviews and interrogations. Despite these concerns, the experimental control available in laboratory settings allows scholars to systematically evaluate which factors increase or decrease the likelihood of true and false confessions, and, unlike field studies, scholars can know which participants have confessed truthfully and which have confessed falsely.

Experimental Studies Several methodological variations exist to study false confessions in laboratory settings. One often-replicated paradigm is the „Alt‟ key methodology pioneered by Kassin and Kiechel (1996). In what would become a seminal study of false confessions, college students participated in what appeared to be an item response task for extra credit (Kassin & Kiechel, 1996). The participants sat across the table from a confederate posing as another student. This confederate read a list of letters to the participant, and then the participant typed them into a computer and advanced to the next letter by pressing the space bar. The investigator told the student to be sure to not press the „Alt‟ key, as doing so would crash the computer and destroy all data. The computer crashed after only a few minutes. An investigator then entered the room and accused the participant of pressing the „Alt‟ key, explaining that the only way the computer could have crashed was if the „Alt‟ key was hit (Kassin & Kiechel, 1996). In the confederate eyewitness condition, a female confederate of the experimenter falsely claimed that she had seen the participant press the „Alt‟ key. This investigator then attempted to gain a confession from then student by having them sign a sheet stating, “I hit the Alt key and caused the computer to crash, data were lost” (Kassin & Kiechel, 1996, p.126).

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By the end of the study, 69% of the participants confessed to hitting the „Alt‟ key and signed the requested document. In addition, 28% of those who confessed actually believed that they hit the „Alt‟ key and ruined the fictitious study, and 9% of the participants confabulated or created false details about how they hit the „Alt‟ key (Kassin & Kiechel, 1996). Beyond these general findings, Kassin and Kiechel (1996) found that the participants who heard a testimonial false-evidence ploy (i.e., a false claim about an eyewitness) were more likely to confess falsely and to internalize their guilt. Researchers have since replicated and modified the „Alt‟ key study to gain a greater understanding of false confessions in laboratory settings. Forrest, Wadkins, and Miller (2002) replicated the Kassin and Kiechel (1996) study with the addition of stress as a variable. Participants viewed photographs of peaceful nature scenes or fatal car accidents to alter the participants‟ level of pre-existing stress. Participants then performed the classic task from the Kassin and Kiechel (1996) study; 60% of the participants confessed to pressing the „Alt‟ key, but viewing the stress-inducing pictures did not appear to affect confession rates. Of those who confessed, 35% expressed feelings of responsibility and guilt for the act (Forrest, Wadkins, & Miller, 2002). There was a stress by gender interaction in that men exposed to stressful photos confessed more often (69%) than men in the control condition (27%). Similar confession rates for women in the stress and no stress conditions suggest that external stress did not influence women in the same way. Forrest, Wadkins, and Larson (2006) further extended Kassin and Kiechel (1996) by evaluating the degree to which personality variables such as authoritarianism and locus of control influenced participants‟ likelihood of falsely confessing and internalizing responsibility. Overall, 81% of the participants admitted to pressing the „Alt‟ key, and 59% internalized their personal responsibility. Although there appeared to be a ceiling effect for confessions, Forrest and colleagues (2006) found that participants who scored higher on authoritarianism and lower on internal locus of control were more likely to internalize responsibility for an act they did not commit (Forrest, Wadkins, & Larson, 2006). Plausibility of the mock crime appears to play a role, however. Blair (2007) demonstrated that as the complexity of an act increases and the plausibility decreases, false confessions decrease. In another replication of the Kassin and Kiechel (1996) study, researchers asked college students to participate in a facial recognition task. Participants examined pictures of faces and attempted to identify a face they had seen before. Researchers informed the students that pressing the „Alt‟ „control‟ and „delete‟ keys simultaneously would crash the computer. Only 27% of the participants confessed (Blair, 2007); the lower false confession rate in this study compared to other replications may relate to the plausibility of hitting one key versus three keys simultaneously or participants‟ pre-existing knowledge that this key combination may stop some computer operating systems. Klaver, Lee, and Rose (2008) used the Kassin and Kiechel (1996) paradigm to directly evaluate plausibility. Researchers informed participants not to press either the „Esc‟ key or „Alt‟ key during a typing task. The task required participants to frequently use the spacebar, making the „Alt‟ key a likely mistake. The „Esc‟ key was far from any key used in the experiment, and this made it an improbable mistake. Researchers randomly assigned participants to the „Alt‟ or „Esc‟ conditions. As hypothesized, fewer participants confessed to pressing the „Esc‟ key (Klaver, Lee & Rose, 2008). Horselenberg, Merckelbach, and Joseph (2003) evaluated the effects of negative consequences on participants‟ decisions to falsely confess. They systematically replicated the

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Kassin and Kiechel (1996) study with students who were told not to press the „Shift‟ key during a typing task as doing so would crash the computer. In response to critics‟ concerns about the realism of interrogation situations used in research, as described previously, they also added negative consequences for confession; participants knew that if they confessed they would have their pay for participation cut by 80%. Horselenberg et al. (2003) found that 82% of participants falsely confessed to crashing the computer and that 54% of the participants internalized their guilt despite the threat of financial consequences. Horselenberg and colleagues (2006) then further extended the Kassin and Kiechel (1996) „Alt‟ key paradigm to examine severe penalties for false confessions, specifically a fee of $135 that participants would pay if they falsely confessed to crashing the computer. Only 1 out of 9 participants admitted to crashing the computer with the large fee as a consequence (Horselenberg et al., 2006), and these lower confession rates appear to reflect the more severe consequences of false confession. In the same study, Horselenberg et al. (2006) employed a separate method similar to the cheating paradigm developed by Russano, Meissner, Narchet, and Kassin (2005) that we describe below. While a participant was taking an examination, the researcher left the room. Upon returning the researcher accused the participant of looking at the answer key. Researchers then asked each participant to sign a confession and told him or her that if he or she signed the confession no further action would be taken; however, if the participant refused, the researcher would report the student to university officials who would then decide whether cheating occurred. Researchers also told participants that failure to sign the confession would result in an academic probation period in which the student would be barred from taking any examinations until a review by university officials occurred. By the end of the study only one participant out of 12 signed the confession (Horselenberg et al., 2006). The addition of severe but non-financial consequences if participants did not sign a confession increased the realism of the study and caused a much lower confession rate than in other „Alt‟ key studies. Now there were serious consequences for falsely confessing to the “crime.” In an extension of the Kassin and Kiechel (1996) „Alt‟ key paradigm into novel populations, Redlich and Goodman (2003) examined differences between adolescents and college students. Additionally, researchers confronted participants with false evidence, a paper that listed all the keys the participants allegedly hit and falsely included the „Alt‟ key. They found that 69% of the participants falsely confessed to pressing the „Alt‟ key and that 28% internalized their guilt or responsibility. Redlich and Goodman (2003) also found higher rates of false confession in adolescents as opposed to young adults especially when false evidence was used. It is interesting to note that similiar outcomes had been predicted by Münsterberg as early as 1908. Clearly, innocent individuals, both suspects and participants alike, will falsely confess to an act not committed. How then do these false confessions compare to true confessions? Russano, Meissner, Narchet, and Kassin (2005) launched a novel experimental method in which participants took a problem-solving test. Each participant was told that he or she would be taking the test with another participant who was actually a confederate posing as a student. The researcher informed the pair that during the test they should work together on team problems and work alone on problems designated for individual work. In the cheating condition, after the researcher left the confederate asked the participant for help on an individual problem; in the non-cheating condition the confederate made no such request (Russano, et al., 2005).

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In both conditions the researcher returned after the two had finished taking the test and told the participant that both his or her test as well as the confederate‟s had the same incorrect answer on an individual problem. The researcher explained that the situation was a form of cheating and that the professor conducting the experiment had been notified of what happened. The researcher then asked the participant to sign a confession admitting to sharing answers to individual problems. In the control condition experimenters told participants if they signed the confession no further action would be taken; in the maximization condition participants were told that even if they signed the confession they would be contacted again. In the minimization condition the researcher expressed sympathy to the participant and downplayed the seriousness of the act (Russano et al., 2005). Participants who actually aided the confederate were 3.53 times more likely to confess than those who were truly innocent. Minimization of the seriousness of the act increased the participants‟ likelihood to confess, and participants who were told that signing the confession would result in no further action were more likely to confess (Russano et al., 2005), providing additional support to findings by Horselenberg and colleagues (2003; 2006) regarding the relationship of consequences and false confessions. This new paradigm once again demonstrated false confessions and also allowed the first comparison of true and false confessions in the laboratory. Nash and Wade (2009) used a novel experimental methodology and obtained a much higher rate of false confessions among participants than previous studies. Participants joined what they believed to be a computerized gambling study. At the end of the task, researchers told the participant that he or she had been stealing money from the bank. In one condition researchers told participants that a video camera had caught the act, but the participant was not invited to view the video. In a second condition, the researcher showed the participant doctored video of the participant stealing from the bank. To provide consequences for participants‟ decisions about whether to confess, experimenters told participants that those who confessed would not be paid for the experiment and that those who did not confess would have to meet a professor who would decide whether the participant would be paid. Every participant confessed to stealing money; however, participants who did not view the video expressed more initial resistance. Nash and Wade (2009) also found that 83% of the participants internalized some degree of responsibility for the act. Nash and Wade (2009) conducted a second experiment in which researchers accused participants of taking money from the bank on three different occasions. Although the act in question was less plausible (i.e., stealing on three separate occasions), high rates of confessions occurred. Overall, 93% of the participants falsely confessed on three different occasions, and 66% felt responsible in some way (Nash & Wade, 2009). Their findings demonstrate the power of false-evidence, such as the doctored video evidence used in this study, to induce false confessions during interrogations. These experimental studies of interrogation and confession provide strong convergent evidence that innocent suspects falsely confess during interrogation. The studies have employed a wide range of methodologies, populations, and analysis techniques. How strong is the common ground between these diverse studies?

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Meta-Analysis To examine false confessions generated with diverse experimental methodologies, a recent meta-analysis by Stewart and Woody (2010) evaluated the likelihood of false confessions across twelve laboratory false confession studies within nine publications. Many of the studies examine the effects of false evidence, false witnesses, or heightened levels of arousal have upon false confessions. Because the variation among these methods was large, however, the meta-analysis assessed only compliance (Stewart & Woody, 2010)2. The effect size for the twelve total studies is medium in size (Cohen, 1988), indicating that a substantial portion of innocent individuals will falsely confess under the right conditions. The large Q statistic indicates that the studies possess a great deal of methodological variation that cannot be fully examined with the current analysis, but these evaluations provide important collective evidence that innocent suspects can and do falsely confess (Stewart & Woody, 2010).

Police Deception during Interrogation: Ethical and Legal Questions

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Forms of Police Deception in Interrogation Skolnick and Leo (1992) identified eight different types of deception used in police interrogations. Each of these has, at least in some contexts, been upheld by courts as acceptable. First, police may present the interrogation questions as a voluntary interview; a voluntary interview does not require Miranda warnings. Second, police may imply that waiving Miranda rights is only an administrative ritual and is typical before interrogations. Third, police may minimize or maximize the legal seriousness of the offense. These tactics have received extensive attention in the psychological literature (Blair, 2007; Kassin & Gudjonsson, 2004; Kassin & McNall, 1991). Fourth, the police may play roles to appeal to the suspect‟s conscience or morality. Fifth, they may maximize or minimize the moral severity of the offense to convince suspects that the offense was an extremely serious violation of the law and cultural norms or to inspire suspects to believe that the offense was not so serious and that confession would not necessarily have dire consequences. Sixth, police may infer either promises of leniency for confessing or imply serious threats for not confessing (see Kassin, 1997; Kassin & Gudjonsson, 2004). These promises and/or threats can never be explicit, yet empirical studies show that observers of such techniques not only hear their meanings, they evaluate the defendant differently as a function of their use (Kassin & McNall, 1991). Police officers may misrepresent their own identities and may legally pretend to be a fellow prisoner who asks the suspect questions about a separate crime (see Illinois v. Perkins, 1990). Finally, police interrogators may falsely claim to have evidence that implicates the suspect in the crime; Leo (2008) termed this tactic a false-evidence ploy.

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Ethical Questions Attorneys, researchers, practitioners, and interrogators have argued for a diverse collection of views concerning the ethical questions raised by police deception. Public perceptions of the legal system also have important ramifications for these discussions. Legal scholars have argued for a variety of positions including the elimination of police deception outside of extreme circumstances (see e.g., Paris, 1997), eliminating deception before defendants hear Miranda warnings (Mosteller, 2007), increasing the current limitations on police deception (see e.g., Slobogin, 2007; Thomas, 2007), and leaving the limits on police deception unchanged (see e.g., Magid, 2001).

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Scholars of interrogation. These topics have also received extensive consideration from scholars in criminal justice and psychology (e.g., Kassin, 1997; Kassin & Gudjonsson, 2004; Skolnick & Leo, 1992). As described previously, deception has been associated with false confessions in laboratory studies (Blair, 2007; Forrest et al., 2002; Forrest et al., 2006; Horselenberg et al., 2003; Horselenberg et al., 2006; Kassin & Kiechel, 1996; Klaver et al., 2008; Nash & Wade, 2009; Redlich & Goodman, 2003; Russano et al., 2005; Stewart & Woody, 2010), and scholars have reported police deception across several documented case studies (Gudjonsson, 2003; Leo & Ofshe, 1998). For example, false-evidence ploys, discussed subsequently, have “been implicated in the vast majority of documented false confession cases” (Kassin et al., 2010, p. 12; Kassin, 2005). The convergence of laboratory and archival evidence drives important ethical, scientific, and legal concerns among scholars of police interrogation (see Kassin et al., 2010 for a review). Psychological Practitioners. Professional psychologists have faced similar as well as unique questions regarding police interrogation and deception. In some instances, courts have questioned the involvement of psychological professionals. For example, in Leyra v. Denno (1954), Leyra requested a physician for a medical condition, and a psychiatrist posed as a physician in general practice to continue the interrogation without the suspect‟s knowledge. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled Leyra‟s confession involuntary due to the deception and other circumstances. Debates about the roles of psychiatric and psychological practitioners in police interrogation continue today. Although psychiatric scholars note that deception by police remains legal, the legality of the tactics remains incompatible with the role of the psychiatrist as a healer (Applebaum, 2009a, 2009b; Halpern, 2009; Janofsky, 2006). The official position of the American Psychiatric Association is that “No psychiatrist should participate directly in the interrogation of persons held in custody by military or civilian investigative or law enforcement authorities” (American Psychiatric Association, 2006, ¶3). The American Psychological Association [APA] has remained less unequivocal through the first decade of the millennium. In the 2002 APA Ethics Code, psychologists who faced conflicts between requirements of the APA Ethics Code and the law “may adhere to the requirements of the law, regulations or other governing legal authority” (APA, 2002, p. 1062). This language appeared to open the door to psychologists‟ participation in police and military interrogations, including participation in legal but potentially unethical deception or other mistreatment of suspects (APA, 2010); the resultant outcry has included prominent individual and collective voices (see e.g., Burman, 2009; Munsey, 2008). Recent changes in the ethics code removed the language quoted previously and added the following statement

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“Under no circumstances may this standard be used to justify or defend violating human rights” (see APA, 2010, ¶4); these changes became effective June 1, 2010 (APA, 2010).

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Public perceptions of the legal system. Police deception affects police officers, attorneys, and judges in the criminal justice system, the system as a whole, and public perceptions of the system. First, police lies affect suspects, who may then make important and potentially lifechanging decisions in interrogation rooms with the erroneous expectations that police have been and will be honest (Slobogin, 1997). Additionally, suspects to whom the police lie often feel wronged, and these feelings may result in continued lack of trust of police, continued attempts at deception, or even open aggression (Bok, 1999; Slobogin, 1997). A second concern is that police deception may affect the deceivers (see Paris, 1997); Skolnick and Leo (1992) have expressed concerns that lying during interrogation will make it easier for police officers to lie in other legal environments (e.g., to internal investigators, to judges, or in court). This deception affects those individuals in the legal system who accept and sanction these lies, including other police officers, district attorneys, and judges. Beyond the individuals immediately involved with the lies, police deception affects the system as a whole and public perception of the justice system. As an New Jersey appeals court noted regarding public opinion and police deception, “The abhorrence of society to the use of involuntary confessions . . . turns on the deep-rooted feeling that the police must obey the law while enforcing the law; that in the end life and liberty can be as much endangered from illegal methods used to convict those thought to be criminals as from the actual criminals themselves” (State v. Patton, 2003, p. 71). If police can legally deceive suspects, observers may also question which other aspects of the criminal justice system may involve dishonesty. Interrogators. Authorities in police interrogation, including the authors of the most popular interrogation training manual (Inbau, Reid, Buckley, & Jayne, 2001), have of course reviewed these ethical questions; the authors returned to these questions in the associated Investigator anthology (Jayne & Buckley, 1999). Inbau et al. (2001) accept police deception, and they discuss and justify it throughout their text. In their work, they devote extensive space to the topic, particularly to advise interrogators about methods for deceiving suspects without risking the challenge of the confession before admission to court or in court. The authors state, “We do approve . . . of psychological tactics and techniques that may involve trickery and deceit” (Inbau et al., 2001, p. xii). In the Investigator anthology, Jayne and Buckley (1999) devote 18 pages specifically to “The necessity of trickery and deceit” (p. 435) and maintain that “the use of trickery and deceit is of paramount importance to the success of an interrogation” (p. 443). For Inbau et al. (2001) and Buckley and Jayne (1999), the questions center on the legal limits. What are the boundaries of deception beyond which a confession may not be accepted by the courts?

Legal Questions The U.S. Supreme Court has addressed and set precedents on these questions, as have numerous lower courts. The courts rely on precedents set by previously decided cases, but the U.S. Supreme Court and other courts sometimes break new ground. Generally speaking,

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although courts have set precedents by rejecting some confessions as on the basis of voluntariness, lack of Miranda and suspect competency, many forms of police deception remain legal and constitutional (see Inbau et al., 2001; Jayne & Buckley, 1999; Magid, 2001). Across several cases, the U.S. Supreme Court and other Courts have ruled on whether a confession is voluntary and whether the voluntariness of a confession has been compromised by a particular interrogation technique. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that physical coercion (i.e., torture) is unconstitutional (see Brown v. Mississippi, 1936), and the courts extended these limits of physical mistreatment to include bans on deprivation of food, water, or sleep (Ashcraft v. Tennessee, 1944; Reck v. Pate, 1961). The U.S. Supreme Court has also publically noted that psychological interrogation techniques can be as abusive as physical torture (Blackburn v. Alabama, 1960). Despite these rulings, the courts have failed to reject confessions obtained with a wide range of trickery and deceit unless voluntariness, Miranda and or competency were at issue. In 1969, the court upheld a confession as voluntary even though the police deceived a suspect by saying that his relative had confessed to the crime implicating him in process (Frazier v. Cupp, 1969). In particular, the Court stated that police deception alone was not necessarily sufficient to render a confession involuntary; Inbau et al. (2001) cites this case as an important precedent for the legality and constitutionality of deception during interrogation. Courts have also addressed deception in other contexts. When a defendant confessed to an officer posing as a fellow prisoner, the court upheld his confession; judges noted that Miranda warnings (see Miranda v. Arizona, 1966) were not required for every conversation with a law enforcement officer, even one who is undercover, and the court stated that “Miranda forbids coercion, not mere strategic deception by taking advantage of a suspect's misplaced trust in one he supposes to be a fellow prisoner” (Illinois v. Perkins, 1990, p. 297). In Moran v. Burbine (1986), the police did not inform a suspect that his attorney was attempting to contact him. The court upheld the suspect‟s Miranda waiver despite the police deception. In Colorado v. Spring (1987), the police deceived the suspect by allowing him to believe that he would only be questioned about a burglary. When the interrogation shifted to questions about a murder, the suspect confessed. The court ruled that the intentional omission by the police did not invalidate the suspect‟s Miranda waiver. Beyond the U.S. Supreme Court, state and other courts have also upheld the use of trickery and deception. Courts have allowed police to misinform accomplices to play them against one another (Ward v. State, 1980), and courts have allowed police to deceive a suspect so that the suspect believes a murder victim is still alive (State v. Cooper, 1974). Additionally, other courts have upheld the use of false-evidence ploys in particular. For example, the Supreme Court of Arizona upheld the conviction and the admission of a confession into trial for a suspect who confessed after police falsely claimed to have found his fingerprints at the crime scene (State v. Cobb, 1977). A California Appeals Court failed to reject a confession after police interrogators falsely claimed to have fingerprints as well as an array of forensic evidence against a suspect (People v. Lira, 1980). In State v. Jackson (1983), a North Carolina court failed to reject a confession despite false scientific evidence about bloodstains and false testimonial evidence about eyewitnesses. Although in many of these cases individuals were convicted on the basis of apparently true confessions elicited with interrogator lies and deceit, it is naïve to expect that these same strategies would not have similar effects on innocent suspects; the case studies presented previously provide justification for these concerns. Across these and other cases, several courts have accepted

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police deception in the form of false-evidence ploys. Based on her review of the legal literature related to police deception, Magid (2001) claimed that “The Court has repeatedly declined the opportunity to place any specific limits on the use of deception during interrogation” (p. 1176). A few court decisions have rejected some forms of deception, however. Examples include confessions resulting from psychological techniques viewed as excessively coercive, particularly when viewed in the larger context of the events leading to and during the interrogation (Blackburn v. Alabama, 1960; Fikes v. Alabama, 1959). When officers falsely told a suspect that she would lose government benefits as well as custody of her children if she did not confess, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected her confession as coerced (Lynum v. Illinois, 1963). In a separate case, when a suspect was told by a police officer who was also a personal friend that the lack of a confession would jeopardize the officer‟s job and the health of his family, the U.S. Supreme court rejected the suspect‟s confession as involuntary (Spano v. New York, 1959). These case outcomes suggest that some judges believe excessive psychological coercion can provide sufficient reason to reject a confession as involuntary. In addition to rejecting confessions due to excessive psychological coercion, courts have also rejected some forms of fabricated evidence. Courts have failed to reject confessions that result from police deception if the fabricated evidence exists only in the interrogation room, as described previously. But, when police interrogators have created material such as official looking paperwork to support their false-evidence ploy and when this false evidence could mistakenly find its way into police files, the trial, subsequent appeals, or the media, courts have rejected confessions as coerced. For example, when police printed false forensic laboratory results on official letterhead and presented the fabricated evidence to the defendant, the appeals court ruled that the confession should have been inadmissible (Florida v. Cayward, 1989; see also State v. Chirokovskcic, 2004). In State v. Patton (2003), a New Jersey appeals court rejected a confession due to the fabrication of an audiotape with a police officer playing the role of a non-existent eyewitness who placed the suspect at the crime scene. Simply put, if an observer could mistake fabricated evidence for actual evidence, the courts have rejected the confession. Despite these limits on police interrogation tactics, a wide range of techniques remains legal and constitutional as long as they do not appear to produce excessive psychological coercion or include fabrication of material evidence that could persist beyond the interrogation room.

The Roles of Jurors in the Study of Interrogations Thus far, this chapter has reviewed the false confessions in the United States legal system, the experimental investigations of false confessions, and the ethical and legal questions related to police interrogation as well as police deception in interrogation. These examined phenomena are relevant to a wide audience, but only recently have scholars extended the study of interrogation and confessions to include the ways that legal decision makers (i.e., jurors, juries, and judges) perceive police interrogation tactics and confession evidence (Forrest, Woody, Brady, Batterman, Stastny, & Bruns, 2010; Henkel, Coffman, & Dailey, 2008; Leo & Liu, 2009; Woody & Forrest, 2009).

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Jurors’ Responsibilities and “Harmless Errors” As part of a series of checks and balances that exists to reduce the likelihood that innocent individuals are falsely convicted of crimes, jurors and their resulting decisions are often the last opportunity for an innocent suspect to avoid conviction. In a case involving a disputed confession, the judge presides over a preliminary hearing and decides whether the confession can be admitted into trial; if the judge admits the confession, the jury must decide the defendant‟s guilt based on the totality of the evidence, including the confession (see Kassin & Gudjonsson, 2004; Kassin et al., 2010). The study of jurors, juries, and their views of interrogation tactics have become particularly important in light of Arizona v. Fulminante (1991), in which the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that coerced confessions were subject to harmless error analysis. In this case, the U.S. Supreme Court set precedent for legal expectations that jurors can recognize and discount a coerced confession and that admission of a coerced confession could be a harmless error that would not affect the outcome of a trial. Prior to Arizona v. Fulminante (1991), as Kassin and Sukel (1997) noted, “convictions were routinely reversed whenever an appeals court found that a coerced confession was erroneously admitted at trial” (p. 29). In Arizona v. Fulminante (1991), however, the U.S. Supreme Court noted that the confession was coerced and that the confession was prejudicial to the jury, but the Court did not reverse the conviction. Oreste Fulminante was in prison in New York for an unrelated crime when Anthony Sarivola, a fellow inmate who served the FBI as an informant, befriended him (Arizona v. Fulminante, 1991). Sarivola heard prison rumors that Fulminante had murdered a child; Fulminante denied these rumors, and Sarivola reported these denials to his FBI contacts. Despite Fulminante‟s denials, Sarivola informed Fulminante, a slight man with a low IQ who was struggling to adjust to prison life, that other prisoners would mistreat Fulminante, unless Sarivola protected him. Sarivola claimed he would provide protection for Fulminante only if Fulminante confessed to the murder (Arizona v. Fulminante, 1991). Fulminante confessed and then immediately sought to suppress his confession; his attorneys argued that the confession was coerced because Fulminante feared for his life in prison. The trial judge admitted the confession. Fulminante appealed, and the Arizona Supreme Court overruled the trial judge and ordered a new trial. Upon further appeal, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the confession was coerced and that the confession likely biased the jury but that the improperly admitted confession could constitute a harmless error and was therefore subject to harmless error analysis (Arizona v. Fulminante, 1991). Harmless error analysis has roots in English law. Prior to the mid-1800s, English courts followed the Exchequer Rule, under which any trial error could lead to a reversal of judgment, and cases retried for minor errors overloaded the courts (see Renfro, 1991). The British changed this rule in the late 1800s, but the U.S. applied the Exchequer rule until 1919, when congress enacted federal harmless error legislation to require federal appellate courts to carefully review evidence and rule about whether an error would have affected the outcome of a trial (Renfro, 1991). If a convicted defendant appealed a case due to a trial error, an appellate court would review the evidence and evaluate the error in the context of the entire trial. If the court viewed the error as harmless, then the appellate court would not overturn the conviction. Although courts had previously rejected analysis of coerced confessions as part of the harmless error rule (see Chapman et al. v. California, 1967), in 1991 the U.S. Supreme

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Court extended harmless error analysis to improperly admitted coerced confessions (Arizona v. Fulminante, 1991). Several criticisms of Arizona v. Fulminante (1991) exist. Legal scholars have challenged the decision for constitutional reasons (Ogletree, 1991). Others have argued that allowing jurors to hear potentially coerced and prejudicial confessions will encourage police interrogators to become increasingly coercive (Kamisar, 1995). Some have argued that appellate judges, like other triers of fact, cannot evaluate the confession in an unbiased manner; as a result, judges themselves are expected to be affected by the presence of the confession and would therefore be unable to accurately judge the other evidence (Hirsch, 2007). Similar concerns have been justified by the findings that learning about confessions can change the decisions of eyewitnesses (Kassin & Hasel, 2009) as well as fingerprint experts (Dror & Charlton, 2006). Beyond these concerns, the application of harmless error analysis to coerced confessions rests on the assumptions that jurors can recognize and remain uninfluenced by coerced confessions. The U.S. Supreme Court and other courts have expressed great confidence (and unrealistic expectations) in jurors‟ abilities to evaluate confessions. The idea that an improperly admitted coerced confession could be “harmless” rests on the assumption that jurors can recognize and reject coerced confessions. One example of the courts‟ confidence in jurors comes from Lego v. Twomy (1972). In this case, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that for a judge to rule that a confession is voluntary, he or she must be sure that a preponderance of evidence supports the voluntariness of the confession; in other words, the judge need not use the beyond a reasonable doubt standard of proof but the weaker standard of preponderance of evidence (see Kagehiro & Stanton, 1985; McCauliff, 1982). Although U.S. Supreme Court Justices noted that the use of the lower standard of proof potentially transfers some of the responsibility for recognizing and rejecting coerced confessions to the jury, they stated that their decision was “not based in the slightest on the fear that juries might misjudge the accuracy of confessions and arrive at erroneous determinations of guilt or innocence” (Lego v. Twomy, 1967, p. 625). Do jurors merit the confidence judges have in their abilities?

Jurors’ Perceptions of Confessions Initial investigations into jurors‟ perceptions of coerced confessions have not substantiated the courts‟ confidence in jurors. Jurors perceive confessions as extremely powerful forms of evidence, and they rely extensively on confession evidence (Kassin & Neumann, 1997). Even when jurors viewed a confession as less voluntary and when they believed that the confession did not affect their verdicts, coerced confessions led to increased guilty verdicts (Kassin & Sukel, 1997; Kassin & Wrightsman, 1981). In archival data, defendants who confess, retract their confession, and plead not guilty have conviction rates of 73% (Leo & Ofshe, 1998) to 81% (Drizin & Leo, 2004). These archival and experimental findings cast doubt on jurors‟ abilities to meet judges‟ expectations. Jurors serve important functions in any trial involving a disputed confession. If a judge is convinced to the preponderance of evidence standard of proof that a defendant voluntarily confessed, then jurors must render a verdict based on all of the evidence in the case, including a potentially coerced confession. The law expects jurors to accurately recognize and reject coerced confessions. Jurors‟ perceptions of and decisions about confession evidence are only

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now becoming the subject of research in psychology and the law (see Forrest et al., 2010; Woody & Forrest, 2009). What do we know about this fledgling field?

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Jurors’ Perceptions of and Decisions about Confession Evidence Previous research has examined the influence of confession evidence on mock jurors (Henkel et al., 2008; Kassin & Neumann, 1997; Kassin & Sukel, 1997; Kassin & Wrightsman, 1981) and the effects of confession evidence on the perceived veracity of other evidence types. As noted previously, fingerprint experts as well as eyewitnesses were both willing to change their decisions when informed of a suspect‟s confession (Dror & Charlton, 2006; Hasel & Kassin, 2008). Other scholars examined the influence of specific interrogation practices such as pressure (Kassin & Sukel, 1997), leniency, explicit and implied threats (Kassin & McNall, 1991), as well as deceptive police practices such as the use of informants (Neuschatz, Lawson, Swanner, Meissner & Neuschatz, 2008). Recently, juror researchers began evaluating the effects of true (Leo & Liu, 2009) and false evidence ploys on jurors‟ verdicts, sentencing and interrogation evaluations (Forrest et al, 2010; Wagner & Forrest, 2010; Hille, Forrest & Woody, 2010; Leo & Liu, 2009; Woody & Forrest, 2009). Leo and Liu (2009) investigated 264 mock jurors‟ ratings of several police interrogation techniques (see Leo & Liu, 2009, p. 386 for a list). The authors then combined the individual techniques into six categories: accusation and re-accusation, challenging denials, confrontation with true evidence, confrontation with false evidence, promises of leniency, and threats including use of harm. Leo and Liu (2009) had participants rate the coerciveness of each strategy and the likelihood that each strategy would lead to both true and false confessions. Although participants considered many of the tactics slightly coercive and therefore powerful enough to get guilty suspects to confess, they did not believe the techniques would lead to false confessions. Participants rated the use of false evidence as a particularly coercive technique and similar in coerciveness to threats and use of harm. Despite concerns with interrogation techniques and outcomes, the jury-eligible participants also demonstrated naïveté concerning interrogations and specifically interrogation length. Participants suggested that interrogations should last an average of 7.88 hours up to 13.73 hours in order to get a confession. Unfortunately, this average estimated length of time is closer to the amount of time typical of interrogations resulting in false confessions (Drizin & Leo, 2004) than interrogations reported by law enforcement (Kassin et al., 2007). Based on Leo (2008), we extended prior research on jurors‟ perceptions of police deception during interrogation. We examined participants‟ ratings of deception and coercion across 12 individual ploys and three ploy types: demeanor, testimonial, and scientific (Forrest et al., 2010, Stastny, Forrest, Leo, & Bienhoff, 2006). Table 1 lists the individual ploys and ploy types. Although not inclusive, our list of individual ploys included many presented in Ofshe and Leo (1997a)1. Similar to Leo and Liu‟s (2009) technique, we had mock jurors (N=69) evaluate lists of individual ploys. Building on Ofshe and Leo‟s (1997b) suggestion that scientific ploys should be the most coercive (see also Henkel et al., 2008; Leo, 2008), we hypothesized participants would rate scientific ploys as significantly more deceptive and coercive than demeanor and testimonial ploys. We also examined the extent to which deception and coercion ratings

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varied when individuals were led to believe false-evidence ploys resulted in true or false confessions. We distributed two questionnaires to all participants. The top of the first questionnaire contained the following definition of false-evidence ploys: “Investigators use a variety of evidence ploys to explain why they are confident of a suspect‟s guilt. By using an evidence ploy, the police officer hopes to convince the suspect that he or she has been tied to the crime in some way. What makes this claim a ploy is that no such evidence actually exists.”

In the first questionnaire, participants used a 10-point scale (1=not at all, 10=extremely) to rate the deceptiveness of each false-evidence ploy. On the second questionnaire, participants used the same scale to rate the coerciveness of each ploy. We evaluated participants‟ ratings of deception and coercion using ploy type (demeanor, testimonial, or scientific) as a within participants variable and ploy information (true or false confession) as a between participants independent variable. Table 1. Specific False-Evidence Ploys and False-Evidence Ploy Types (adapted from Forrest et al., 2010, p. 43) Demeanor Ploys Overwhelming Evidence* Suspect Demeanor Non-verbal Behavior Suspect Appearance

Testimonial Ploys Eyewitness Co-conspirator Videotape

Scientific Ploys DNA Medical Tests Failed Polygraph Fingerprints Forensic Evidence

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Note. * indicates that we categorized this specific false-evidence ploy as a demeanor ploy for our initial studies but dropped it from later research.

Although participants‟ ratings of deception were unaffected, ploy type influenced participants‟ ratings of coercion. Participants viewed testimonial ploys as significantly more coercive than demeanor ploys. In contrast, ploy information (true or false confession) significantly affected participants‟ perceptions of deception. Across ploy types, participants in the false confession conditions rated tactics as more deceptive than did participants in the true confession conditions. Ploy information, however, did not affect participants‟ rating of coercion. Finally, the interaction of ploy type and ploy information did not significantly influence levels of deception or coercion. Because mock jurors are more likely to evaluate interrogation techniques when included in other materials, in study 2 we embedded three individual false-evidence ploys, representing the three ploy types, in interrogation transcripts. This step allowed us to determine whether mock jurors would attend to those ploys when part of a larger packet of materials rather than isolated on a list. Again, we examined whether mock juror perceptions of deception and coercion differed across ploy types (demeanor, testimonial, and scientific) and ploy information conditions (true or false confession). For this study we added a third dependent variable of interest, justification. Specifically, we expected that participants would view ploys leading to false confessions to be less justified than those ploys leading to true confessions. We also expected an inverse relationship between deception and coercion when compared to

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justification. Participants rating false evidence ploys as more deceptive and coercive should rate those same ploys as less justified. Finally, we compared deception and coercion ratings across studies 1 and 2 to determine whether participants in the list study would rate evidence ploys as less deceptive and coercive than participants in the transcript study. We found a main effect for ploy type, and post hoc analyses revealed participants perceived testimonial ploys as more deceptive and marginally more coercive than demeanor ploys; a finding consistent with study 1. Additional analyses indicated participants in the transcript study rated testimonial and scientific ploys as significantly more deceptive and coercive than did participants in the list study. Our findings were more complex for the demeanor false-evidence ploy. Consistent with our prediction, participants in the transcript study found the demeanor ploy more coercive; however, deception ratings did not differ across the two studies. We failed to find the predicted inverse relationship between justification and our other variables, deception and coercion. However, ratings of justification varied as a function of ploy information in that participants assigned to the false confession condition perceived their false-evidence ploys as less justified than did participants in the true confession condition. This outcome suggests that educating individuals about the possibility of false confession and the potential effects of deceptive interrogation techniques can affect mock jurors. Specifically, these findings illustrate the importance of having expert witnesses in court when cases involve interrogation and confession.

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The Expert Witness Due to potential jurors‟ limited knowledge concerning interrogations, in many cases courts allow expert witnesses to describe and testify about interrogation techniques (see Kassin & Gudjonsson, 2004; Jayne & Buckley, 1999; Woody & Forrest, 2009). Defense experts may also state that false-evidence ploys increase the likelihood of false confessions in laboratory studies (see Forrest et al., 2002; Forrest et al., 2006; Kassin & Kiechel, 1996; Horselenberg et al., 2003; Klaver et al., 2008; Redlich & Goodman, 2003) and that several case studies suggest a connection between false-evidence ploys and false confessions (Gudjonsson, 2003; Leo & Ofshe, 1998). How do juries evaluate potential false confessions? Most individuals do not believe that they would falsely confess in the absence of physical coercion, and most extend this logic to assume that others would not falsely confess (Henkel et al., 2008; Leo, 2008; Woody & Forrest, 2009); yet few appear to have accurate knowledge of police interrogation techniques (Forrest, White & Fulero, 2010; Henkel et al., 2008; Leo, 2008). One survey suggested individuals (a) recognize they lack sufficient knowledge concerning interrogation techniques and confessions and (b) know this ignorance interferes with their ability to evaluate confession evidence (Chojacki, Cicchani, & White, 2008). Could expert testimony concerning police interrogation strategies influence mock jurors perceptions of and judgments about a false-evidence ploy? Our third study further investigated mock jurors‟ (N=361) perceptions of false-evidence ploys by including the transcript as one part of a murder case (Woody & Forrest, 2009). First, all participants read a trial summary establishing the identification of the victim, the lack of evidence, and the defendant‟s confession during interrogation. We then assigned participants

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to one of two transcript conditions (ploy present, ploy absent) and one of two expert witness conditions (expert present, expert absent). We added prosecutorial and defense statements, Colorado judges‟ instructions for verdicts, and sentencing choices consistent with the crime and state. Finally, we included a post-transcript questionnaire that rated deception, coercion, and justification as described earlier. Consistent with our previous work, mock jurors reviewing case materials including falseevidence ploys rated their interrogation strategies as more deceptive and coercive than did individuals in the no ploy conditions. The presence of an expert had the same effect. Participants in the expert present conditions also rated their interrogations as more deceptive and coercive. No interactions reached significance. Although participants in the ploy present condition appeared less likely to convict, the difference was only marginally significant. The presence of an expert witness did affect verdicts. Compared to mock jurors in the expert absent condition, mock jurors assigned to the expert present condition convicted less often and perceived their defendant as less guilty. Of those (N=127) who convicted the defendant, participants exposed to false-evidence ploys recommended shorter sentences than did participants in the ploy absent condition. The presence of an expert had no effect on sentencing nor was the interaction significant. These findings demonstrate that we have created a systematic, ecologically valid way to present realistic police interrogation strategies through the use of interrogation transcripts. These methodological developments are particularly important for the study of jurors‟ perceptions of interrogations for several reasons. First, as interrogation transcripts and video recordings become more prevalent in trials, it becomes increasingly important for attorneys to understand jurors‟ perceptions of false-evidence ploys as these ploys are depicted in actual trial materials. Second, Lassiter and his colleagues have argued that in cases when police interrogation video formats may induce bias (i.e., when they are suspect-focused, see Lassiter, 2002; Lassiter et al., 2002; Lassiter, 2006), only audiotapes or transcripts should be provided to jurors in order to reduce potential bias against the defendant (Snyder, Lassiter, Lindberg, & Pinegar, 2009). With increasing calls from scholars to present interrogation transcripts to jurors, these research methodologies will grow in importance. Additionally, with the development of a systematic and ecologically valid methodology to present realistic police interrogation tactics to jurors, we have been able to extend these methods to examine how jurors evaluated different kinds of false-evidence ploys as well as other forms of police deception.

Bluffs As discussed earlier in this chapter, although Inbau, Reid, Buckley, and Jayne (2001) argue extensively that false-evidence ploys are legal, they caution their trainees against using direct deception to convince suspects that police have evidence placing them at the scene for two reasons. False-evidence ploys may “backfire” when suspects question the veracity of the evidence. Rather than risk losing credibility during an interrogation with a direct falseevidence ploy, Inbau and colleagues suggest the use of bait questions or bluffs (Gohara, 2006). Rather than a direct claim of evidence as is typical of a false evidence ploy, a bait question asks, “what if I told you we had [your fingerprint; an eyewitness; your DNA recovered from the crime scene; or any other type of false evidence]. How would you explain

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that?” Inbau and colleagues present bait questions as distinct from false-evidence ploys. Yet, Torkildson and Kassin (2008) found that participants in their replication of the „Alt‟key study were as likely to falsely confess in the bluff condition as they were in the eyewitness condition. These results suggest that despite interrogators‟ faith in the distinction between bluffs and false evidence ploys, suspects do not perceive a difference. Rather, suspects are just as likely to falsely confess when bluffs are used as when interrogators use false-evidence ploys. We expected jurors to respond similarly. Based on previous research conducted by Woody and Forrest (2009) and Forrest et al. (2010), we hypothesized mock jurors who read police interrogation transcripts including either false-evidence ploys or bluffs would rate the techniques‟ deception, coercion, and justification in similar ways (Hille, Forrest, & Woody, 2010). We also expected no differences in verdict or sentencing as a function of strategy. Participants (N=60) in the false-evidence ploy conditions and the bluff conditions did not rate their interrogation strategies as differently deceptive, coercive, and justified. We also failed to find differences in verdicts by condition; forty-three percent of the participants in the falseevidence ploy condition and 54% of the participants in the bluff condition convicted suspects. Finally, mock jurors in the false-evidence ploy condition and the bluff conditions did not recommend different sentences (Hille, Forrest, & Woody, 2010). We believe mock jurors are focused more on the fact that police deceived the suspect and less on the process that police use to carry out the deception. These results, like those of Torkildson and Kassin (2008), confirm that although interrogators and interrogation trainers discriminate between bluffs and false-evidence ploys, individuals on the receiving end of these techniques and those who observe these techniques in transcripts fail to differentiate between these strategies.

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Ploy Complexity As researchers are becoming more aware of the strength of false-evidence ploys in eliciting false confessions (Leo, 2008), what remain less understood are the effects of ploy variations on jurors. For example, Leo (2008) had suggested that false evidence ploys can be simple or orchestrated, a variable we call ploy complexity (Wagner & Forrest, 2010). An interrogator using a simple ploy tells the suspect that fingerprint evidence places the suspect at the scene. An orchestrated ploy requires suspect participation or interaction with the fabricated evidence as part of a larger scheme or deception. This deception is designed to convince the suspect that overwhelming evidence exists and that his or her only recourse is to confess. In the case of the Tucson 4, interrogators had suspects wait in a “prop room” or staged evidence room designed to convince the suspects they were caught. Props included a variety of pseudo-evidence such as boxes with the suspects‟ names on them, crime scene photos, and other materials (Kimball & Greenberg, 1993). Another example of an orchestrated ploy is the false-results polygraph test (Leo, 2008). After results are “analyzed” in a separate room interrogators present the “failed” outcome to the suspect. Many of the DNA exonerated cases described on the Innocence Project website involved false polygraph results and subsequent false confessions (Innocence Project, 2010a). An orchestrated ploy relevant to the current study involves having evidence, such as the murder weapon, in the interrogation room. The suspect then unwittingly becomes part of the ploy by either asking questions about the weapon, or avoiding contact with the weapon. Kirk

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Bloodsworth faced an orchestrated ploy during his interrogation for a brutal murder that he did not commit (Innocence Project, 2010b). Officers placed a rock covered in stage blood and a pair of panties in the room in order to observe Bloodsworth‟s reactions to the pseudoevidence. In addition to faulty eyewitness evidence and circumstantial evidence, Bloodsworth‟s “atypical” reactions to the props convinced interrogators that he was guilty (personal communication, 2007). Because an orchestrated ploy includes the unwitting suspect within the false-evidence ploy we expected that mock jurors would perceive the techniques as being more deceptive, coercive, and less justified than would participants exposed to the simple ploy and no ploy conditions. We also expected that ploy conditions would influence verdicts and sentencing recommendations. Guilty verdicts should be least likely in the orchestrated ploy condition, followed by the simple ploy and no ploy conditions, respectively. Finally, we expected that mock jurors would recommend the shortest sentences in the orchestrated ploy condition followed by medium length sentences in the simple ploy conditions, and the longest sentences in no ploy condition (Wagner & Forrest, 2010). Consistent with previous juror research, all participants read an interrogation transcript where facts were consistent except for the interrogation technique immediately preceding the confession. We randomly assigned participants (N=105) to one of three conditions. In the control condition, police did not claim to have evidence, and the suspect confessed after a series of questions. In the simple ploy condition, police told the suspect that his bloody fingerprint was found on a knife at the scene of the crime. In the orchestrated ploy condition, the interrogator presented the murder weapon to the suspect during questioning, asks the suspect to take a close look at it, and then questions him about the presence of his fingerprints on the knife. Participants then read Colorado judges‟ instructions before choosing a verdict and recommending a sentence if applicable. Compared to mock jurors in the control condition, mock jurors in both the orchestrated and simple ploy conditions rated their ploys as more deceptive and coercive. However the deception and coercion ratings for the orchestrated and simple ploy conditions did not significantly differ from one another. Ploy complexity affected verdicts. Participants assigned to the orchestrated ploy condition were less likely to convict their defendant. Similar to our findings in the bluff study where bluffs and false evidence ploys were perceived as equally deceptive and coercive, ploy complexity appears to be less influential on mock jurors than does the deception itself (Hille, Forrest, & Woody, 2010). Participants may consider the fabricated fingerprint evidence as the most important deceptive information regardless of ploy complexity. Participants in the orchestrated ploy condition may be unaware of the psychological effects that an orchestrated ploy may have on a suspect. Neither our findings nor the results of Torkildson and Kassin (2008) support the beliefs of Inbau et al. (2001).

Additive Ploys If one false-evidence ploy can sway a suspect or a juror, what happens when the falseevidence grows? Leo (2008) suggests that a testimonial ploy like eyewitness false evidence can be additive. Specifically, if one false eyewitness is not enough to sway the suspect, the

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interrogator may then refer to additional eyewitnesses, video, etc. until the evidence appears overwhelming to the suspect. Following previously described methods, we randomly assigned participants to read transcripts with one of the following ploy conditions, no false-evidence ploy, one false eyewitness; four false eyewitnesses (Woody & Forrest, 2010). Although almost all participants correctly answered a manipulation check question that asked them to identify their ploy condition, we found no differences in ratings of deception, coercion, and justification as a function of ploy number. Participants‟ verdicts and assigned sentences did not differ as a function of ploy. As in studies of bluffs and orchestrated ploys, participants appear to recognize and respond to police deception, and they appear to recognize differences between forms of police deceptions (i.e., one or four eyewitnesses), but the differences between forms of deception may not be as important as the presence of deception in any form (see also Hille, Forrest, & Woody, 2010; Woody & Forrest, 2009).

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Attorneys and Voir Dire We made an early unsuccessful attempt to predict jurors‟ views of and decisions in trials involving police deception during interrogation (Forrest & Woody, 2009). We hoped to provide judges and attorneys some potential predictor variables to use during voir dire, but our initial attempts did not have sufficient statistical power. As our collection of programmatic data grew, however, we sought more thorough evaluation of the utility of several potential predictor variables. We turned to Leo‟s (2008) myth of interrogation, the belief that no one would falsely confess in the absence of mental illness or physical coercion. The pervasiveness of the myth of interrogation provides significant obstacles for defense attorneys who believe that a defendant has falsely confessed to a crime he or she did not commit. When lawyers attempt to convince a jury that a particular defendant falsely confessed , they challenge common though mistaken beliefs. Beyond courtroom tactics that attorneys may use to influence jurors‟ decisions, a separate and practical trial question remains: in cases involving disputed confessions, are attorneys able to select pro-defense or pro-prosecution jurors during voir dire? By combining data from several studies in our research program (Hille, Forrest, & Woody, 2010; Wagner & Forrest, 2009; Woody & Forrest, 2009; Woody et al., 2010a; Woody & Forrest, 2010), we assessed common dependent variables in a large data set. We were able to ask mock jurors (N=728) whether others would falsely confess and whether the jurors themselves would falsely confess. Each participant in the present analysis had individually read a trial summary, read a 15-page interrogation transcript based on an actual interrogation (condensed from a 385 page transcript of an actual interrogation), rendered a verdict decision and, if appropriate, recommended a sentence, and completed a series of questions regarding his or her perceptions of the interrogation (Woody, et al., 2010b). First, participants viewed themselves significantly differently than they viewed others; 646 of 728 (88.7%) said that a person would falsely confess in the absence of coercion, and 207 of 728 said that they themselves would falsely confess in the absence of coercion. Participants believed that they were far less likely than another person to confess falsely (Woody, et al., 2010b).

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Perceptions of self and others predicted a number of important trial decisions. Participants who believed others could falsely confess were less likely to convict the defendant than were others, and participants who said that they might falsely confess were less likely to convict the defendant than were others. Perceptions of self and others similarly predicted ratings of guilt but not recommended sentences. Participants who thought they would falsely confess perceived interrogations to be more deceptive than did others, and participants who believed that they or others would falsely confess perceived interrogation tactics as less justified (Woody, et al., 2010b). Across these findings, effect sizes were small, but the opportunity to sway even a small amount of the variance in verdict and in jurors‟ perceptions of the interrogation may be worth the investment of time required to ask these questions of prospective jurors during voir dire. Beyond the potential effects in the courtroom, these findings carry implications for interrogators. If interrogators know that a substantial portion of a jury may perceive or identify with the defendant in ways that may affect the verdict in a case, perhaps interrogators will consider jurors‟ perceptions of interrogation techniques more carefully. Given recent findings that jurors may be less likely to convict a defendant who has endured a deceptive interrogation (Woody & Forrest, 2009), interrogators who hope a jury will convict a particular defendant may choose less deceptive and coercive techniques so that the jury, particularly if comprised of members who believe that they themselves or others would falsely confess in the absence of physical coercion, may be less likely to acquit the defendant.

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Conclusions Although much of the work in our and others‟ labs has been conducted with college students, the use of college students as jury eligible individuals has gained support (Bornstein, 1999). Bornstein‟s (1999) extensive review indicated that, across studies, few differences emerged between the college samples and samples composed of traditionally aged jurors. In their recent study, Leo and Liu (2009) suggested their greatest concern involved the inability of their sample to see the relationship between the psychological coerciveness in the police interrogation strategies and their possible link to false confessions. They hypothesized that if college educated mock jurors failed to understand the power of such techniques, so would others (Leo & Liu, 2009). Findings from our research program support their hypothesis. Across multiple studies our mock jurors consistently attended to and were influenced by the presence of false-evidence ploys compared to the absence of false-evidence ploys. Yet, they had difficulty recognizing the subtle differences between orchestrated and simple ploys as well as between bluffs and false-evidence ploys. Ofshe and Leo (1997b) suggest that when examining the effects of individual interrogation techniques on a suspect, it is important to consider how the technique interacts with other strategies. In other words, interrogators rarely use one technique for questioning a suspect. Rather they start with suspect isolation, add a couple of false-evidence ploys, stir in challenges to denial, and finish with minimization. We expect that jurors also evaluate interrogation and confession evidence within a “totality of evidence.” As Hasel and Kassin (2008) found, knowing a confession exists affects one‟s judgment concerning other forms of evidence (see also Dror & Charlton, 2006). It is also possible that jurors could evaluate the

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veracity of the confession based on the prevalence of other forms of eyewitness, physical, or even circumstantial evidence. Research findings about jurors, their verdicts and their evaluations of trial evidence continue to garner support for the use of expert witnesses in the court (Leo & Liu, 2009; Woody & Forrest, 2009). Clearly the information these experts would provide is not already known by jurors, need not involve direct evaluations of the specific interrogation techniques in the case, and is generally accepted by the scientific community. If the decision of the jury is the last safety net for innocence, shouldn‟t jurors have all available information?

Future Work The past and ongoing scholarship we describe here points directly to future projects. For example, we will soon expand our list of false-evidence ploys that we present to mock jurors (see Leo, 2008; Skolnick & Leo, 1992). Beyond false-evidence ploys, we will evaluate other common forms of police deception as reported by North American Police detectives (see Kassin et al., 2007). We describe more specific ideas below.

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Lies of Omission False-evidence ploys are perceived as especially coercive by mock jurors (Leo & Liu, 2009), scholars (Gudjonsson, 2003; Kassin, 2008; Leo, 2008) and research participants (Forrest et al., 2010; Woody & Forrest, 2009). According to Leo (2008), the power of falseevidence ploys lies in their common use. Yet, many individuals remain unaware falseevidence ploys are legal, as discussed previously, and commonly used by police (Kassin et al. 2007). Lies of omission also fit these criteria. The U.S. Supreme Court failed to reject a confession in at least one case where a suspect was not informed his lawyer was present at the station (Moran v. Burbine, 1986), and other forms of lying by omission have been tied to convicted individuals exonerated by DNA evidence (Innocence Project, 2010a). Other examples include failure of the police to disclose evidence that could exonerate the suspect, failure of police to inform a suspect that what appears to be an informal interview is actually an interrogation, and failure to inform a suspect that a polygraph machine has a meaningful error rate (see Kassin & Gudjonsson, 2004).

Minimization Research by Russano and colleagues (2005) demonstrated that minimization is one of the most effective police interrogation strategies for eliciting true and false confessions. Based on the research by Kassin and McNall (1991) as well as Leo and Liu (2009), we expect that mock jurors will recognize the presence of minimization as a strategy but underestimate the technique‟s power in eliciting false confession. To the outside observer, the minimization technique appears similar to a conversation involving one friend who is comforting another. Minimization as a technique works because a sense of trust and camaraderie is developed between the suspect and the interrogator (Inbau et al., 2001; Kassin & McNall, 1991). Sample statements using the minimization technique include, “It was an accident,” and “Anyone in

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this situation would have done the same thing.” Much like the technique of implying leniency, we expect that jurors will find it hard to believe that this technique will educe a false confession.

Conclusions This chapter has reviewed the existing literature on false confessions, including the laboratory research, archival cases, and the ethics and legality of police deception during interrogation. We then discussed the growing research and legal connections between the fields of jury decision making and police deception, and we described the existent research across these two fields. Our own program of research has been fruitful, particularly thus far, and we hope to continue into the future. We close with specific recommendations for scholars, interrogators, attorneys, and legislators.

Recommendations

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Scholars. We described our suggestions for scholars in our discussion of future research. Beyond specific projects, we recommend that scholars develop other ethical and more realistic laboratory methodologies to study interrogation and confession. We also suggest that researchers continue to look across subfields in areas of psychology and the law; until recently, the interaction of police interrogation and jury decision making remained an active gap in these fields. We hope scholars continue to fill this gap in ways that contribute to the legal understanding of interrogators, attorneys, and legislators. Interrogators. Our program of research has revealed several practical considerations for police interrogators. For example, interrogators and interrogator trainers (Inbau et al., 2001; Jayne & Buckley, 1999) should reconsider their hypothesized differences in suspects‟ perceptions of different tactics. They assume that some tactics, such as false-evidence ploys and bluffs, are legally distinct, but neither suspects (see Torkildson & Kassin, 2008) nor jurors (Hille, Forrest, & Woody, 2010) respond to these differences. More broadly, however, some concerns arise. Woody and Forrest (2009) found that the use of a false-evidence ploy slightly reduces the likelihood that jurors will convict a defendant. If police interrogators believe a suspect is truly guilty and know that false-evidence ploys reduce the likelihood of conviction, would interrogators avoid false-evidence ploys to maximize their chance of conviction? We hope that the findings described here encourage police to consider the consequences of deception for any suspect, and we hope that police consider the larger implications for themselves and for public perceptions of police and the criminal justice system as a whole. Attorneys. There are several important considerations for lawyers. Attorneys should continue to ask prospective jurors about their experiences with law enforcement and also their beliefs about interrogation and confession evidence and, more specifically, about whether they or others may confess (see Woody, et al., 2010b). As Leo and Liu (2009) suggest, jurors seem familiar with many of the interrogation techniques; however, they underestimate the

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degree to which those techniques could contribute to false confessions. When prospective jurors are familiar with interrogation strategies and have not been the target of interrogation, those beliefs stem from other sources. Examples include fictional and documentary television (Henkel, et al 2008; Forrest, White & Fulero, 2010). If these beliefs about police interrogation come from television and high profile cases, we suggest that attorneys and judges consider the inclusion of expert testimony in the area of police interrogation and confession evidence so that all jurors considering such evidence have comparable exposure to the research findings associated with police interrogation strategies and confession evidence (see Woody & Forrest, 2009). Learning from an expert witness that false confessions occur and that some scholars have concerns that false-evidence ploys may lead to a greater likelihood of false confessions led mock jurors to reduce their conviction rates, perceive the suspect as less guilty, and perceive the interrogation as more deceptive and coercive than did participants who did not read expert testimony (Woody & Forrest, 2009). Although trials, perhaps particularly those involving a disputed confession, are typically complex events, there is much for attorneys to learn from psychological data related to these topics. Legislators. This body of evidence suggests clear directions for legislators. State and federal statutes do not fit the body of empirical knowledge related to false confessions. As one exemplar, not all states allow falsely convicted individuals to seek compensation for wrongful imprisonment (Innocence Project, 2010a), and state laws vary widely. For example, Nebraska appears to exclude some if not all DNA-exonerated defendants who made false statements that led to the conviction of themselves or others (Innocence Project, 2010c). These and other statutes fail to consider the extensive body of literature that demonstrates the existence of false confessors among the wrongfully convicted. Beyond compensation laws, we strongly encourage legislators to consider the larger outcomes of police deception on suspects, public views of police officers and other individuals in the justice system, and public views of the criminal justice system as a whole. In Great Britian, all interrogations must be video-recorded, and police interrogators may not deceive suspects in any way; the elimination of false-evidence ploys has not been associated with a decrease in confession rates (Gudjonsson, 2003). We echo Janet Reno‟s (2003) call for an end to police deception in the criminal justice system in the United States.

Closing This chapter has reviewed false confession literature, experimental evaluation of police interrogation and false confession, and jury decision making in cases involving confession evidence. We hope that our ongoing program of research will continue to provide convergent input for a more accurate, more just, and more hopeful legal evaluation of confession evidence in courtrooms in the United States.

Footnotes 1. In a later publication Leo (2008) went on to categorize false polygraph results as an orchestrated ploy or a ploy which involves the suspects‟ direct interaction with the

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evidence or a bogus testing procedure designed to get the suspect to confess. The example most discussed in the use of false polygraph results (telling a suspect he or she failed a polygraph test when the results are passing or inconclusive). We included polygraph results as a scientific ploy because officers often present these results as scientific findings. 2. Many of the studies did not include an effect size in the results; therefore, the proportions method of obtaining effect size was used wp=1/SE2p=n/p(1-p) (Lipsey & Wilson, 2001). The fixed effect for the twelve studies yielded a mean weighted effect size of .5725. Evidence of heterogeneity was discovered with Q = 328.28.

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Mosteller, R. P. (2007). Confessions and police disclosure: Police deception before Miranda warning: The case for per se prohibition of an entirely unjustified practice at the most critical moment. Texas Tech Law Review, 39, 1240-1273. Munsey, C. (2008). The debate continues: Psychologists continue to discuss the field's involvement in interrogations. Monitor on Psychology, 39(9), 16. Münsterberg, H. (1908). On the witness stand: Essays on psychology and crime. New York: Clark Boardman. Nash, R. A. & Wade, K. (2009). Innocent but proven guilty: Eliciting internalized false confessions using doctored-video evidence. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 23, 624-637. Neuschatz, J. S., Lawson, D. S., Swanner, J. K., Meissner, C. A. & Neuschatz, J. S. (2008). The effects of accomplice witnesses on jury decision making. Law and Human Behavior, 32, 137-149. Ofshe, R. J., & Leo, R. A. (1997a). The decision to confess falsely: Rational choice and irrational action. Denver University Law Review, 74, 979-1122. Ofshe, R. J., & Leo, R. A. (1997b). The social psychology of interrogation: The theory and classification of true and false confessions. Studies in Law, Politics, and Society, 16, 189-251. Ogletree, C. J. (1991). Arizona v. Fulminante: The harm of applying harmless error to coerced confessions. Harvard Law Review, 105, 152-175. Paris, M. L. (1997). Lying to ourselves. Oregon Law Review, 76, 817-832. People v. Lira. 119 Cal. App. 3d 837 (1981). Reck v. Pate. 367 U.S. 433 (1961). Redlich, A. D. & Goodman, G. S. (2003). Taking responsibility for an act not committed: Influence of age and suggestibility. Law and Human Behavior, 27, 141-156. Reid, J. E. & Associates. (2010). Critic‟s corner: Research. Retrieved March 25, 2010 from http://www.reid.com/educational_info/criticresearch.html. Renfro, J. L. (1991). Recent development: Arizona v. Fulminante: Extending harmless-error analysis to the erroneous admission of coerced confessions. Tulane Law Review, 66, 581591. Reno, J. (2005). Acceptance Speech for the 2005 Award for Outstanding Contributions to Psychology and Law at The Annual Meetings of the American Psychology and Law Society, La Jolla California. Russano, M. B., Meissner, C. A., Narchet, F. M. & Kassin, S. M. (2005). Investigating true and false confessions within a novel experimental paradigm. Psychological Science, 16, 481-486. Skolnick, J. H. & Leo, R. A. (1992). The ethics of deceptive interrogation. Criminal Justice Journal, 11, 3-12. Slobogin, C. (1997). Deceit, pretext, and trickery: Investigative lies by the police. Orgeon Law Review, 76, 775-816. Snyder, C. J., Lassiter, G. D., Lindberg, M. J. & Pinegar, S. K. (2009). Videotaped interrogations and confessions: Does a dual-camera approach yield unbiased and accurate evaluations? Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 27, 451-466. Spano, v. New York, 360 U.S. 315 (1959). State v. Cobb. 115 Ariz. 484; 566 P.2d 285 (AZ 1977). State, v. Cooper. 217 N.W.2d 589 (IA 1974). State, v. Chirokovskcic.. 860 A.2d 986 (N.J.Super. 2004). State, v. Jackson. 308 N.C. 549 (1983).

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State, v. Patton. 826 A.2d 783 (NJ 2003). Stastny, B., Forrest, K. D., Leo, R. & Bienhoff, J. (2006, March). Evaluating evidence ploys: The role of ploy type in perceptions of deception and coercion. Presented at the annual meetings of American Psychology - Law Society, St. Petersburg, FL. Stewart, J. M. & Woody, W. D. (2010, April). Meta-analysis of confession studies. Presented at the annual meetings of the Rocky Mountain Psychological Association, Denver, CO. Thomas, G. C. III (2007). Confessions and police disclosure: Regulating police deception during interrogation. Texas Tech Law Review, 39, 1293-1319. Torkildson, J. & Kassin, S. M. (2008, March). The outright lie, the bluff, and false confessions. Presented at the annual meetings of the American Psychology-Law Society, Jacksonville, FL, March. Wagner, C., & Forrest, K. D. (2010, March). Ploy complexity and its influence on mock jurors‟ interrogation evaluations and verdicts. Presented at the annual meetings of the American Psychology and Law Society, Vancouver, BC. Ward, v. State. 408 N.E.2d 140 (Ind. App 1980). Warden, R. (2006). America’s first wrongful murder conviction case. Retrieved February 11th, 2010, from Northwestern University School of Law‟s website: http://www.law.northwestern.edu/wrongfulconvictions/exonerations/vtBoornSummary.html Woody, D. W. & Forrest K. D. (2009). Effects of false-evidence ploys and expert testimony on jurors‟ verdicts, recommended sentences, and perceptions of confession evidence. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 37, 333-360 Woody, W. D. & Forrest, K. D. (2010). Jurors‟ decisions and perceptions of cases involving single and additive false-interrogation ploys. Manuscript in preparation. Woody, W. D., Forrest, K. D., Stewart, J. M., Woestehoff, S. A., Herrell, D. M., Walker, A. T., Bauman, V., Barfield, G., Green, G., Gibbons, E. J. & Ponzi, M. J. (2010a, April). The influence of police false-evidence ploys and related expert testimony on jury deliberations and decisions. Presented at the annual meetings of the Rocky Mountain Psychological Association, Denver, CO. Manuscript in preparation. Woody, W. D., Stewart, J. M., Walker, A. T., Barfield, G., Ponzi, M. J. & Woestehoff, S. A. (2010b, March). False confession plausibility as a predictor of juror‟s decisions and evaluations of police deception. Presented at the annual meetings of the American Psychology-Law Society. Young, D. (2008, April 19). Shawna nelson case: The cost of a first-degree murder trial. The Greeley Tribune, retrieved March 27, 2010 from: http://www.greeleytribune.com/article/ 20080419/NEWS/444721443

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Chapter 2

CRIMINALS AND WARRIORS: THE USE OF CRIMINALS FOR THE PURPOSE OF WAR— THE SERBIAN PARAMILITARY UNITS Maria Vivod* Laboratory „Cultures and Societies of Europe‟ Strasbourg, France

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Abstract During the Titoist regime of former Yugoslavia, the only measure of loyalty toward the state was the individual‟s „patriotic‟ feelings, which resulted in introducing the practice of the State Security to employ individuals with criminal records, or with criminal inclinations, to do the „dirty work‟ abroad in the elimination of the state‟s opponents. This practice continued at the beginning of the nineties when state opponents were seen in former compatriots. The Yugoslav/Serbian State Security employed individuals with criminal records in the support, organization, leadership and management of several paramilitary units in armed conflicts on former territories of the federation. It resulted in numerous crimes, a widely developed clandestine economy, war crimes and genocide, and created a form of institutionalized crime and criminal state institutions.

Keywords: Crime, paramilitary, Serbia (former Yugoslavia), state security services, culture bounded violence.

Introduction The stories about the atrocities and the horrors committed by the Serbian paramilitary units openly reached the Serbian public in the form of documentaries, taped testimonies and published articles in the weekly press, and television documentaries slowly after the fall of the regime of Milosevic (2001). Revelations were mainly made by the independent media and the NGOs. The testimonies that the public had the occasion to hear came from the victims and, in some cases, from the members of these units themselves. Although there were rumors *

E-mail address: [email protected]. (Corresponding author)

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already during the 90s about the horrors, the looting, the killings and the rapes made by these units when the civil war raged across the territories of the former Yugoslavia, open talk about them, about their role in the conflicts, especially in the media, was absent or poorly present. What was known through the media about them was mainly through propaganda supported by the regime which pictured the „volunteers‟ - the members of these units - as national heroes, willing to sacrifice themselves on the altar of Moloch Serbia. A couple of these units were organized and supported by several nationalist political parties and promoted through the press by their „fervent‟ leaders, eager to pour the blood of others for the political goals of their parties. The ideology of the great Serbia promoted by these people had a perfect tool in these paramilitary units. The media of that time had willingly promoted the brave units and their leaders. During that period, open statements about the criminal past of several leaders of these militias reached the public. Their „troubled youths,‟ as it was explained in numerous articles, reportages, and interviews was not a secret; rather, it was presented as some past event which had less relevance to the actuality which imperativeness – a battle for the sake of the nation - justified the employment of such individuals who had „some problems‟ in the past. As the rumors about the atrocities, as well as the stolen goods, started to circulate among the population in the Serbian cities, it became clearer that the „heroes of the nation‟ felt at home on the „battlefields.‟ What was really happening in the territories where the conflict raged was just partially discerned, and what exactly took place behind the scene in the „upper level‟ of their leadership, such as the manner through which these units were organized, and how its members were recruited, remained unclear for more than a decade, which continued well after of the fall of the regime and represent still a „sensible‟ topic in an open debate. Who were the individuals who joined such a unit? Were they really „volunteers,‟ as represented in the press? What about the recruitment of criminals? As the genocide, numerous war crimes, and large-scale looting reached the post-Milosevic Serbian public, finger-pointing toward the criminal inclination and the criminal background of these units‟ members occurred more often, and the speculations about the large scale criminality tolerated, and even promoted by the regime, increased. New elements, testimonies and documents resurged in the past decade, revealing a deep convenience between the crime milieu and the militias. This closeness between them was more than intimate, and it reveals an interesting pattern of the functioning of institutionalized crime and criminal institutions. This article‟s aim is to retrace the relations between the crime-scene and the Serbian paramilitary units, which is much more complex than it appears at first glance, and to explore from the ethnological perspective, with the use of ethnological methodology – by using the data from the media, diverse testimonies, video material, etc. - the interaction between the two groups of marginalized individuals, seeking the roots of it in popular culture. The chapter is divided into four main subchapters which describe almost chronologically the interactions between the crime scene, the structures of power, the militias and the conditions which lead to the development of such symbiosis.

See You in the Obituary The title of this subchapter comes from the name of a Serbian documentary that had a huge cultural impact on the young generation of that particular period of time in the beginning of the 90s, and made a lasting effect on the generations to come. Its harsh title is inspired by the events which occurred while the film was in production: a couple of actors

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were killed before the documentary reached the public. It successfully depicts the Serbian society of the 90s, helps us to understand the impact of the crime on the level of the whole society, and the partial causes of its social acceptance. It also sheds light on the social convention which became dominant in the perception of this activity as a potential „profession,‟ which made the unusual lifestyle promised by this „profession‟ to be coveted by many young men of that generation. This documentary has a special bearing for this chapter: the individuals who appear in this movie influenced the events to come on the scene of the Serbian organized crime-milieu, as well as the events with a political bearing which occurred in the same period and later. The documentary is a fascinating succession of individuals, personages from the Serbian underworld, whose world perceptions and interpersonal relations are exposing the links important for this chapter: the ties between the Serbian crime scene of the 90s and the paramilitary units implicated in the same period of time in crimes of a different nature: war crimes and crimes against humanity. The otherwise complicated tangles between the Serbian state institutions, the crime-milieu and combat-units and the conditions which permitted the establishment of such close links between them was called by several authors (infra) as symbiotic, and not for no reason. As the documentary „See you in the obituary‟ (Vidimo se u čitulji„ / The crime that changed Serbia‟1) was presented to the Serbian public, it immediately inspired the development of urban myths about the members of organized crime who appear in this movie. The documentary made in 1995 is still very popular; it can be downloaded on the internet, and it is shared on community-sites, and represents a „classical,‟ cult film known to every young generation from that period on. It starts with a description of the general state of the country; although not “directly and officially involved,” as says the voice of the narrator, in the war on the former territories of the federation, Serbia feels its effects; the country is under the UN trade embargo, the inflation rate is sky rocketing, and the streets of Serbian cities are full of weapons; young, educated professionals leave the country to try to „find a better life‟ abroad; while many local career criminals return from Western Europe to find themselves clashing with young generations of the street of Belgrade…. Phrases and expressions used by the interviewed criminals entered the Serbian oral tradition almost immediately. In particular, one phrase pronounced by one of the personages, used to explain the clash between the „old generation of professionals‟ returning from abroad and confronting the new, fame-eager generation of delinquents, can be still employed when speaking about the organized crime scene of the region of Western Balkans: “A lot of crocodiles in a small pan” (Mala bara, puno krokodila). The voices, in the form of interviews explaining the chaotic situation in Belgrade of that time, are coming from individuals; various representatives of the underworld who act as freelancers, or members of various clans operating on a neighborhood level. They speak for themselves, and on behalf of a whole new desperate generation of individuals realizing that engaging in crime is a possible lifestyle to undertake, which, although dangerous, is worth it to try. Causes of the rise of criminality, as the reasons to embrace such a „profession‟ are explained, and analyzed from the actors themselves of this particular social milieu, who define themselves as professional criminals. Common individuals, who are the group in opposition, are trying to live „according to the law,‟ and are described by these criminals with 1

Directed by Janko Baljak based on the book The Crime That Changed Serbia by Aleksandar Kneţevi ć and Vojislav Tufegdţ ić.

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pity, and called „small potatoes‟ (sitne jajare2), or they are referred as „simple mortals‟ (obični smtrnici). The risk, or “the challenge to come out from the everyday „grayness,‟” is to take a step and to engage in a life of crime. They realize that their class is backed up directly or indirectly by the corruption and by the loopholes in the law and the judicial system, dating back from the socialist period. Fame and reputation are perceived as powerful tools, and are exploited fully by them. Crimes are committed in order to reinforce or create a reputation. They deplore the „unprofessionalism‟ many of their „colleagues,‟ generalizing it to the whole Serbian underworld. Idols are to be found in „accomplished‟ individuals, such as Ţeljko Raţnat ović, aka Arkan, who enters the public scene couple of years earlier as a football fan club leader and a patriot in order to become a „commandant‟ of a paramilitary unit. “Live hot, die young” became a slogan of a whole generation of the Serbian youth who were aspiring to live as the „couple lucky ones‟ described by the documentary. Patterns of behavior, speaking, and especially dressing were observed according to the standards of this subculture: for the men -diesel jeans, designer brand sneakers, heavy golden chains around the neck, etc. and a match full outfit for the women - oversexed and provocative. The lifestyle, the collective behavior of that time, was the topic of many anthropological and sociological studies (Gordy 1999, Jansen 2000, Čolović 2000a, etc.). The destruction of several segments of social alternatives (musical, political, social) (Gordy 1999) permitted an introduction of a new set of cultural and social values, and a wider broadcast of those coming from this particular subculture. The destruction of musical and social alternatives, and the tolerance and encouragement of the Milosevic regime had led to the transformation of this subculture to the mainstream. This new fashionable lifestyle where crime has played an essential role was pursued with much effort by the younger generation, and turned into a tacit social convention. For that purpose the Serbian media provided a fashionable fodder, and the particular disposition which was, until then, characteristic of a group from a social margins, has become a leading group temperament eagerly imitated and reproduced by the young generations. It is pertinent to mention a couple of the individuals who gave interviews for this documentary as being an appropriate illustration of the complexity of the network made from convicted criminals, paramilitary unit members and official institutions. How close and entangled the link is based on interpersonal contacts, a common past and exchanged favors can be seen in the following examples taken from the documentary: The movie mentions, and shows the grave of, the youngest „star‟ of the Serbian underground: Aleksandar Kneţ ević, aka Knele (killed in 1992), who was, for a time, the bodyguard of Vuk Drašković, a leader of a political party (the Serbian renewal Movement SPO). The same party and its leader Drašković supported the creation of the Serbian Volunteer Guard (Srpska Dobrovoljačka Garda - SDG), led by another member of the Serbian crime-scene, ĐorĎe Boţovi ć Giška (killed in 1991), who was mentioned in this documentary by his friend Boris Petkov, while showing a couple of photographs with Giška. Ţeljko Raţ natović aka Arkan is also mentioned in the movie as an ideal example of success, the „prototype‟ for the Serbian criminals, “for his organizational capacities”. The movie doesn‟t mention his criminal past, just a couple of words about „his problematic youth‟. Arkan was the commander of the Serbian Volunteer Guard, then the chief of the

2

The original expression is referring to the size of one‟s testicules.

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Tigers (Tigrovi) a paramilitary unit accused of numerous war crimes committed in Croatia and Bosnia, and for ethnic cleansing committed on those territories3. Dragan Nikolić aka Gagi also gave a brief statement in the movie as member of one organized crime clan. Five years later after this interview, Nikolić was involved in the organization of Arkan‟s murder (2001). He was helped by Dobroslav Gavrić, at that time employee of the Federal Interior Ministry member of the second batch of the first battalion of police brigade of Belgrade SUP4. Las but not least, one individual who served just as an „illustration‟ at the beginning of the documentary was Milorad Luković-Ulemek aka Legija, at that time an officer of the Serbian Volunteer Guard (SDG) and later the leader of the Special Operations Unit (JSO). At that time he was unknown and he was not mentioned by name as he was still very much unknown to the general public. Eight years later (2003) he was involved in the organization of the murder of the Serbian PM Zoran ĐinĎić and sentenced for this crime 40 years (and another 40 year for the involvement in the murder of the politician Ivan Stambolić and 40 years for the attempt of murder at Vuk Drašković, the upper mentioned leader of a political party). Interestingly his uncle, Mihajlo Ulemek was a member of the Serbian Volunteer Guard under the leadership of Arkan, and it was under his protection that Milorad aka Legija had joined this unit after leaving the French Foreign Legion5. These names are just couple of examples of individuals with criminal background, who were in close relation with the institutions of political or military power. The net of these interconnections, links, names and activities represent a complex conundrum which shows an interesting pattern once when it is dissected. The pattern is repeating, and points toward an institutionalized employment of individuals with criminal background in state institutions and in the achievement of political goals. The far reaching results of this employment and the scale of the involvement of criminals for military or political purposes will be discovered and affirmed by witnesses – insiders a decade after. One of the first open statements about the employment of organized crime groups and criminals in affairs of the State Security was given in this documentary from the behalf of former State Security employee, a former chief for „special actions at broad‟ who stated that he was charged personally during nine years in this service in „helping‟ 120 criminals to go abroad, by procuring them false documents, etc. (infra). In this documentary, another individual stated an interesting detail about the relation of the crime-scene with the service of the State Security: he was speaking about the tentative of murder on him that he presumed were coming from the State Security, mentioning a list presumably made by the State Security containing the name of “those criminals who are to be killed”. The pattern of the tentative(s) reveled by him will be very similar to those murders committed a couple of years later. This series of murders was called by the press the series of “exquisite corpses”6 when a systematic elimination of leading individuals with a different

3

Indicted by the ICTY (International Crime Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia) in Hague; he was assassinated in Belgrade in 2001 4 http://www.vreme.com/cms/view.php?id=906970 5 According to the press Milorad Ulemek-Lukovic aka Legija had „problems‟ during his youth : petty theft, robbing, etc. It was stated this to be his motivation to join the French Foreign Legion. 6 Vreme n° 472, 22. January 2000

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occupation – such as leaders from the underground world, former police officers, journalists7, etc. were killed in a more or less similar manner. Most of the individuals who gave an interview in this documentary blamed directly the war for the wide spreading of criminality at the streets of majors Serbian cities. As one example taken by this movie shows, some of the crimes were committed by individuals who came back, armed from the battlefields of Croatia and Bosnia and continued to utilize the „techniques‟ they learned there.

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Heroes of the Nation Young men in uniforms, in fast running jeeps across the country, at the streets of Serbia‟s main cities, partying in cafés, numerous articles about the „heroes‟ who defend their nation in the press, television reportages from the „battlefields‟, interviews with the „braves soldiers‟ this is how the public could perceive the Serbian paramilitary unit members the first couple of years of the 90es. How many units were indeed employed, who were those „volunteers‟ (and where they volunteers at all?), how did they effectively defended the Serbian nation and its territories were just few of many questions about these units from which many still wait to be responded and fully presented to the Serbian public. At that time several paramilitary units were well known, having the benefit to an access of the „great Pantheon‟ of the local medias during the 90es, as they were presented in Serbia as the stars, the war heroes, the guardians, the defenders of the Serbian people and its territories (Čolović 2000a. Jansen 2000). The leading personalities of these troops were present overwhelmingly as public figures in the political and in the cultural life during the 90es. A couple of these units – the most „known‟ when it comes at least to their mediacoverage – were started, organized and supported by major political parties established at the end of the 80es and the very beginning of the 90es. The most known unit was the Serbian Volunteer Guard (Sprska Dobrovoljačka Garda – SDG) already active in 1991 in Croatia. It was sponsored by the Serbian Renewal Movement (Srpski Pokret Obnove - SPO) with Vuk Drašković (supra) as its leader. At the head of the guard was placed ĐorĎe Boţović aka Giška, a personage issued from the Belgrade crime scene (supra), at his side with one of the Novi Sad‟s (Serbia‟s second main city) main mobsters: Branislav Lainović aka Lajavi. The rapid death of Boţovi ć (1991) made place on the commanding position of this paramilitary unit empty and was overtaken later by Ţeljko Raţ natović aka Arkan. Arkan made quite a sensation from this unit; he was open to the media, participated eagerly in the public life, he introduced a new an „attractive‟ logo, and gave special name for this unit: the Tigers (Tigrovi). This unit came under the support of the Serbian Unity Party (Stranka Srpskog Jedinstva), a minor political party which was in the same building in Belgrade as the unit‟s

7

For instance Pavle Bulatovic, the former Defence Minister (in 2000); the police general Bosko Buha (2002) one of the few resolved cases; Ţeljko Raţ natović (supra); Branislav Lainovic aka Lajavi (2000), a criminal boss and a friend of ĐorĎe Boţović Giška (supra) and the second in charge of the Serbian Volunteer Guard; and many others

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headquarters8. Arkan was the honorary president of this party, while another unit member Borislav Pelević9 occupied its presidency. Another example of a political party having its „own‟ unit was the Royalist Movement (Rojalistički pokret) with Siniša Vučinić as the president, who was also the leader of the paramilitary units the Serbian Eagles (Srpski Orlovi) 10. There was also the Serbian Radical Party (Srpska Radikalna Stranka – SRS) with Vojislav Šešelj as a leader (at present on trial for alleged war crimes and possible crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia - ICTY) which organized the White Eagles (Beli Orlovi). Although utterly Vojislav Šešelj denied his association with this paramilitary formation11. At that time it seemed that every nationalist political party in Serbia had its paramilitary unit of its own. These political parties were ready to put their words into action. Two of the most know paramilitary unit leaders supported by a political party at the beginning of the 90es were Arkan and Giška who were previously known as the „tuff guys‟ from the streets of Belgrade, having criminal records in Yugoslavia, as well as at broad too. They served time (Arkan escaped several times) for numerous serious offenses (armed robbery, extortion, etc.). Giška died too early to be glorified by the Serbian media, but Arkan never hide this past of his, stating that he had a „troubled youth‟12. It was thanks to the Serbian media that the image of the numerous paramilitary units was perpetuated as the protectors, the saviors of the Serbian nation (Vivod 2010). At the beginning of the 90es they were omnipresent in the printed press, television, and in all segments of the public life. A part from being active in political activities of the parties which supported them, they embraced a more „mundane‟ approach to the public life. For instance, taking the example of the broadcaster Pink with headquarters in Belgrade which broadcasts nationwide had couple of TV shows in which Arkan and his folk singer wife Ceca were regular guest (f.i. in the shows of Milovan Ilić-Minimax)13. Captain Dragan (Dragan Vasiljković)14 the leader of the Kninjas – Ninja‟s from Knin (Knindže) was impersonated as main figure in a serial of comic strips wearing his name (Čolović 2000a). A silver coin was put up with his image with one side stating that “Terrorism stops here” and the other side wearing the inscription of “Captain Dragan Fund” (Fond Kapetana Dragana) created in order to help wounded patriots and families of those who died at the front. ĐorĎe Boţ ovió aka Giška, after his death, was a topic of numerous publications – books, articles and 8

Testimony of the protected witness M-129 at the Milosevic trial at ICTY. recently accused for war crimes made in Zvornik by Šešelj the interview with Siniša Vučinić (a self proclaimed „duke‟ of the Chetnik Movement), Der Spiegel. 41/1992 201b. author Renate Flottau, among many other documents, and testimonies stating the contradictory. 11 "In previous wars (Bosnia, Croatia) there was a small paramilitary organisation called White Eagles, but the Serb Radical Party had absolutely nothing to do with them." Testimony of Vojislav Šešelj, Transcript of 23 August 2005, p. 43081, lines 16-18. Nevertheless see: the testimony of the witness VS 1055, a protected witness in the trial of Vojislav Šešelj 12 Vreme N° 993, the 14th of January 2010. 13 There is an urban legend which says that during one TV show on the Pink television hosted by Minimax which was imagined as „interactive‟ (viewers were allowed to call and ask question to the guest in the show), one women called to ask Ceca from where she has the seemingly expensive necklace. The women recognized a custom-made necklace from a relative of hers, who was brutally murdered in the territories under the conflict. Among other guests this television show also hosted. Šešelj and other „distinguished personages‟ of that time. 14 He is accused by the Republic of Croatia of being responsible for soldiers under his command allegedly torturing, beating and killing captured members of Croatian Army and Police in 1991 in Knin. On 12 April 2007, authorities in Sydney granted Croatia's extradition request. On 3 February 2009 Vasiljković appeal against extradition to Croatia was rejected by the Federal Court of Australia 9

10

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documentaries, as other paramilitary leaders too15– as criminal who was converted into a national hero defending the „Serbian cause‟. Little was known in deed at that time in Serbia how many paramilitary units existed and were employed in conflicts in Croatia and later Bosnia. The United Nations Security Council16 reported that in 1994, that in the conflicts on the territories of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), the Republic of Croatia, and to a lesser extent, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, 82 “paramilitary organizations”17 were employed. Fifty five paramilitary groups were operational in support of the Government of Serbia18, 13 of Croatia, and 14 were Bosnian Muslim paramilitary units. Under the definition of the UN Security Council the paramilitary organization are loosely organized and act an ad hoc basis, they were organized by the governments, or by political parties, by the local police, community or political leaders. And it mentions an interesting detail: “According to some reports, the paramilitary organizations also include criminals released from prison solely for the purpose of forming these units.”19 This kind of the use of criminals as combatants is a known practice very much present globally20 particularly in units who operate autonomously or in the collaboration with formal military units, or are used in an absence of a regular army. The criterion which lead the UN officials to organize the paramilitaries was the actual support which the units got from their „Matrix‟ (Yugoslavia for the Serb forces, Croatia for the Croats, Bosnia for the Bosnians). The support was in money (in form of salaries), armament and other equipment, such as the vehicles, uniforms, fuel, backing up, training bases, and volunteers (Alvarez 2006. Ron 2000. Andreas 2004. Glaurdic 2009: 9721). The members of these units were recruited in two manners: informally - through publicity (via the medias, news paper ads (Kronja 2004. Čolović 2000a), personal contact, friendship, family ties22 or formally – f.i. through party membership, organized sport supporters clubs, or drafted under command– in case of several professional soldiers who were charged to lead, entrain the groups or simply to „lift up the professional level‟ of a unity23. The groups were constituted from men of different ages, social classes and professional backgrounds. There were originated from: the territories under the conflict (as they like to emphasize „they defended their village, their properties and families‟) such as Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, from Serbia – a country which „officially‟ was never at war, a statement which

15

f.i. Marko Lopušina‟s Commandant Arkan; Vojislav Milić‟s My son Đorđe Božović Giška and many others 28 December 1994 “Final report of the United Nations Commission of Experts established pursuant to Security Council resolution 780 (1992)” (S/1994/674/Add.2 (Vol. I Annex III.A) 17 idem 18 Expression used in the upper mentioned report of UN 19 Idem 20 The more recent examples of former criminal employed as mercenaries come from South Africa, Iraq, Haiti and many other examples 21 Interestingly in the interview of Der Spiegel with Siniša Vučinić the leader of the Serbian Hawks (Srpski Sokoli) paramilitary unit he states that his units is entirely financed from abroad, from the Serbian emigrants (Spiegel 41/1992: 201b) although he adds later that his unit maintain contacts with the regular army (JNA) which “leaves [them] a lot of heavy armament” …. One can ponder how come the forces of the regular army simply can „leave‟ the armament…Source of the whole interview in Serbian language: http://www.pescanik.net/ content/view/3803/65/ 22 the Scorpions are an interesting examples which illustrate this connection between the members: two brothers were at the leadership of this unit, followed by a couple of their cousins and schoolmates from primary school 23 see testimony of protected witness K-2 at the Trial of Slobodan Milosevic at ICTY who testified how he was drafted directly from military school to be a member of a „special unit‟ 16

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was propagated through the machinery of the Milošević regime (Biserko 1999. Hartmann 2002) - and expatriates the first or the second generation of Serbian citizens from abroad24. Elements about the sponsoring – system (in weapon, uniforms, money) of the Serbian paramilitary units coming from the Matrix came from several sources: the Serbian police forces (Ron, 2000), from the Serbian Diaspora25 (Andreas, 2004), from extortions/donations of wealthy Serbian citizens26, as well as from the Serbian State Security27. It was the State Security who supplied in equipment and in salaries couple of these units (the Tigers, the Scorpios, etc.). This system of support was obscured for several raisons: it hided the complicity of the Serbian government in armed conflicts (Ron 2000), provided a „convenient political cover of plausible deniability‟28 and through them kept the political aspirations of the Milosevic regime. There have been several hypotheses going in different directions about the number, the nature and the actual role of paramilitary units employed during the armed conflicts in former Yugoslavia. In the countries of the former federation the names of these units equal with „genocide‟ and „war crimes‟. After the series of wars, several former Serbian paramilitaries were indicted and sentenced as war criminals in local special tribunals (in case of Serbia and BiH, in case of Croatia the local, the županijski (district) tribunals were reinforced to be able to handle the cases of war crimes), other were accused and condemned in Hague by the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY). According to these hypotheses from various disciplines, they have been referred as principal carriers for the mechanisms of clandestine economy (Andreas 2004), as tools for a particular war strategy (Ron 2000), and as efficient agents for genocide and ethnic cleansing (Alvarez 2007, Duffy & Lindstrom 2006. Judah 1997) and as the embodiment of traditionally enrooted organized violence (Bougarel 1999, Čolović 2000b). What these theories have all in common is the instrumentalization of these units. They are seen as the instruments in reaching goals, whether these goals are in idealized ethnic state or in simple profit making. In various works the crimogenic nature of the war and situations induced by it were highlighted as a main reason for the propagation of various criminal activities (NikolićRistanović 1998, Andreas 2004, etc.). It was a logical explanation in efforts to understand the extraordinary intensity of the clandestine trade and other criminal activities which took place during the war in Croatia and Bosnia, and which the paramilitary troops were more than active. The war as crimogenic catalyzer which influenced the s.c. „common individuals‟ to engage in criminal activities was early on recognized as one of the main raisons of the massive increase of illegal activities, war crimes and other abuses. Examples of „crimes in war‟ have been made by individuals who previously had never been involved in crime turned to predatory or violent acts „under the influence of dire necessity and the breaking down of inhibitions‟ (Nikolić-Ristanović 1998: 466). War zones, Nikolić-Ristanović ads (idem), became business areas for organized criminal groups, who provided goods such as smuggled fuel, illicit drugs and weapons. Examples belonging to these two paradigms such as „crimes in war‟ and „war crimes‟ focus on arbitrary arrests, executions, violent and property crimes 24

Results of fieldwork statement of Vučinić in Spiegel 26 Testimony of protected witness M-129, the Milosevic trial at ICTY 27 Testimony of protected witness M-129, the Milosevic trial at ICTY 28 UN Experts, 1994:Annex IV 25

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committed by police and paramilitary forces. Both forces, in the former Yugoslavia, recruited “obsessed soccer fans, criminals and alcoholics, and one in five volunteers had committed serious offences, some going to battle directly after serving their time” (Nikolić-Ristanović 1998: 465). The downfall of the usual social organizations are also mentioned as the direct cause of high increases of criminal activities “especially in situations of civil war, when it is hard to distinguish between the police, the army and criminals: all of these become components of social control agencies, and crime is encouraged as one of the forms of war”. (Ruggiero 2005:246-247) The provided „alibi‟ for such behavior is given by the mobilization of “techniques of neutralization” since in war “the violence deployed being not only legitimate, but associated with virtuous, patriotic, qualities, and ultimately, with a supreme form of citizenship.” (Ruggiero 2005:248). Higher values such as patriotism, allegiance and obedience to the power-structures legitimated such actions. Criminals converted into „soldiers & patriots‟ fighting for a greater cause was an acceptable practice in Serbia at that time, as well as criminality was considered as a legitimate way „to earn for living‟ (supra). No one was interested if the person was a previously convicted criminal or had a criminal record of any sort29. The fact that the war became an „extension of a career‟ (Nikolić-Ristanović 1998, Andreas 2004, Bougarel 1999, etc.) the recidivism of many30 individuals engaged in a paramilitary unit with previous criminal records became a comfortable explanation for those in contemporary Serbia willing to ponder about the actual role of these units in war crimes and genocide and useful argument to justify their acts by this recidivism. The external influences such as the UN trading embargo and other sanctions had lead to the development of a perspective of a „criminalized conflict‟ how the raise of criminal activities during the conflict in former Yugoslavia was seen. Criminal activities flourished in spite –or because of the international efforts to impose sanctions to discourage the conflicts. The external intervention had created and economic „opportunity,‟ making a perfect climate for the clandestine commerce to develop, which was based on cross-border smuggling of every possible item that one can imagine31. The presence of the international forces added to the creation of a perfect climate for illicit activities. “Intrastate military conflicts are therefore not only formally internationalized through UN monitoring, diplomatic initiatives, provision of humanitarian aid, and so on, but are also informally internationalized through a range of clandestine transnational networks used to finance and supply the warring parties and evade external control efforts.” (Andreas 2004: 30). The criminal activities are the result of clandestine political economy approach to war, as an ideal „opportunity‟ in profit making. The involvement of quasi-private criminal actors as combatants are significant aspects in explaining the outbreak, persistence, termination of criminal activities during the war and aftermath of the war (Andreas 2004). The instruments in such an activity are to be found in the criminally aided and smuggling-enabled military forces. Pointing out that the elements in such a conflict what is political and what is criminal in such a conflict tend to be a false dichotomy (Andreas 2004). This and other argumentation changes the definition of war as à 29

According to one of the former member of a paramilitary units the „Scorpios‟ (Skorpioni) there was a total absence of any verification of the existence of a previous criminal record, and even the data from the regular army wasn‟t verified. 30 unfortunately they are no official statistics 31 Oil, wood, drugs, food, weapons, cars, even vine (ex. The vinery Erdut was literally emptied by Arkan‟s Tigers). Houses were stripped from doors, windows, stone floors, toilet seats, etc.

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priori criminal activity. “As shown in the Bosnia case, criminality and private predation does not simply trump politics in wartime but rather interacts with it in complex ways.” (Andreas 2004: 32) The criminal activities perpetuated mainly through the paramilitary forces (in case of Serbia) proved to be more then important for maintaining the regime‟s economy (Atanasijević 2006), and as in the case of Bosnia (Andreas 2004) contributed to the criminalization of the state and its institutions not only during the war, especially in its aftermath. Andreas (Andreas 2004: 44) argues that “during wartime have emerged as a nouveau riche „criminal elite‟ with close ties to the government and nationalist political parties” in Bosnia. In Serbia it has created the “warrior-aristocracy” (Čolović, 2000b) with relation and influence in various social layers (from politics, to economics, so called „cultural life‟, etc.). The same situation occurred when it comes to the capital accumulated during war-time it “has been converted to political capital after the war.”(Andreas 2004: 44). Such a state-sponsored criminalized conflict had many „advantages‟: it served political interests, it used freely criminals32, or individuals with criminal inclinations to accomplish those tasks potentially compromising for its political elite or its institutions. “Political sponsorship of criminal actors and smugglers can provide a license for robbery and war profiteering while at the same time contributing to strategic war objectives and state building projects. There can also be great variation in political motives for collusion with the criminal underworld beyond simply self-enrichment” (Andreas 2004: 32). The Serbian paramilitary units were used not only to mask the complicity of the Milosevic regime in Croatia, Bosnia and finally Kosovo (in 1999); they also provided a functional strategy to sustain the economics of this regime (Ron, 2000, Andreas, 2004, Anastasijević 2006). The „thin line‟ between the patriotism and criminality (Andreas 2004:19) was clearly perceived in the constitution of many paramilitary units. The war was just a „great‟ opportunity too good to be missed. The „patriotic costume‟ (Vreme 1997:70–73 in Andreas 2000) was a perfect mask for the „low-risk robbery‟. “Many prisoners in Serbia were also released and sent across the border to join the fighting, enticed by the promise of loot and reduced sentences. Some well-known paramilitary leaders were gangsters with close ties to the Yugoslav State Security and Secret Police”. (Andreas 2004: 35) While the series of armed conflicts continued (1991-1996 & 1999), the stolen goods (mainly cars, house electronics, etc.) abundantly filled the Serbian markets33, the veterans who came back from the battlefield (povratnici sa ratišta), especially those who belonged to a paramilitary unit, witnessed with their new life-styles about the „bounty‟ of the war. The social acceptance of a predatory character was already in use in early 90es (supra), when crime as a social practice was justified and accepted, the newcomers „from the battlefield‟ were just old news.

32

There are some theories (Bougarel 1999, Ron 2000) that the draft of criminals filled the gap created by the weak mobilization of large number of individuals avoiding the draft 33 The smuggling activity which used unofficial channels to redistribute goods from the territories where the conflicts raged aided to the development or organized crime groups in the matrix. These groups were just the „second chain‟ in the cordon of illicit activities occupying a secondary importance in the general organization. This „secondary group‟ (called „small profit gangs‟ – društvo sitnog ćara- by one of my informants) gained an incredible fortune as well during a couple of years too: by selling the less „important‟ good, such as f.i. sinks, toilet seat, doors, windows at local markets …

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The Sons of the Service The study of the crimes made by the numerous Serbian paramilitary units employed during the series of civil wars on former territories of the Yugoslav Federation and especially the individuals with criminal background engaged in these units requires an analysis of the relation between the main „master‟ of many of these paramilitary units, the former Yugoslav State Security. Further it shifts the analysis toward the almost traditional relationship of this agency with criminals or individuals with criminal inclinations. A complex net of relations, practices and events are waiting for those interested to understand the mechanisms between these groups: criminals, combatants and state employees, who are seemingly a very different group of individuals, with almost invisible distinctions at least in case of Serbia, during the 90es and the first couple of years of the new millennia. This sub-chapter is a brief account about the former Yugoslav/ Serbian State Security, its practice of to applying criminals as staff which developed the institutionalization of crime and criminals and its illegal activities closely in relation with the paramilitary units. Less than a decade after the armed conflicts which raged across the territories of former Yugoslavia elements of what actually happened behind the curtains of power had begun to surface. As pieces of some complicated puzzle, mainly through the means of serious and very professionally made investigative journalism (the weekly Vreme, the B92 network), bits and pieces of the interior mechanisms of the Milosevic regime were discovered and revealed to the Serbian public. A great deal of work was made by the NGOs (f.i. Humanitarian Law Center from Belgrade, Women in Black, etc.) who monitored trials, published official documents and testimonies. The trials at the special tribunal for war crimes in Belgrade exposed not only the activities –unfortunately only a small part of it – of the paramilitary units, but also their connection to the high instances of political power. Even more proofs and involvements between the authorities in Belgrade and the several, the most notorious paramilitary units employed first in Croatia and then in Bosnia and Kosovo, were presented at the ICTY (International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia) in Hague. Leads from the trails pointed toward the Serbian State Security, mainly in a form of testimonies given by the insiders who were once employees of the agency whether if they were former collaborators or members of a unit, along with a couple of rare official documents which resurfaced at the trials. These leads directed persistently toward one state institution: the State Security. The Yugoslav State Security, or the predecessor of the Serbian Intelligence Service, changed its name during its existence a couple of times although its activities always remained the same34. The Yugoslav State Security was created after the Second World War from the efforts to maintain the communist party on power. The personnel were chosen from affirmed combatants, who actively participated in the resistance movement in the Nazi occupied country. This is an important element in understanding the „combative‟ nature of this institution which is going to be exploited plenty during the 90es. The main goal of this institution was to maintain the communist party in power and to stop any effort of contra revolution. During the 80e the service changed its name into SDB (Služba Državne 34

First OZNA from 1944 to 1966 (Odelenje za Zaštitu Naroda - Department for Protection of the People) then UDBA (Uprava Državne Bezbednosti – Committee of the State Security) then SDB during the last years of the Yugoslav Federation and the first decade of the 90es (Služba Državne Bezbednosti – the State Security Service), then RDB (Resor Državne Bezbednosti Departement of the State Security) - and then BIA from 2002 (Bezbedonosna Informativna Agencija – Agency for Security and Information).

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Bezbednosti) - the Service of the State Security and from that point on hade for its main mission the identification and the „neutralization‟ of emigrant organizations and individuals which represented a peril to the Socialistic Yugoslav Federal Republic. Both violent groups and peaceful dissidents were included in this broad category. A special unit was charged with individuals and organization at broad, mainly in Western European countries, USA, Australia, etc. The testimonies about the use of criminals in the „neutralization‟ of ideological, political opponents of the former Yugoslavia publically started to came out during the 90es35 and especially after the fall of the Milosevic regime, although rumors existed already during the Titoist regime that one who „messed up‟ in his country could „pay for his sins‟ by doing a „dirty work for the Yugoslav state‟ abroad36. The work of collecting and publishing such testimonies was grosso modo made by the independent press (f.i. weekly Vreme, the network B92, etc.) The testimonies about such a „use‟ of criminals for the account of the State Security came mainly from former employees of the State Security and the criminals themselves who had the „privilege‟ to be employed from the behalf of this institutions. Couple of years ago (2004) the archives containing more precise information about the manner the dissident groups and individuals were „neutralized‟ were investigated by the Serbian Ministry of Diaspora which discovered a same pattern37 of killing of „problematic‟ emigrants. The use of criminals to „do the dirty work‟ was a practice resumed very poignantly by a former chief of the State Security who justified such a „combat‟ against the emigrants who threatened the Yugoslav constitution and state with a Serbian proverb: “Na ljutu ranu, ljutu travu”38 (literally „putting mordant herb on a mordant wound‟), meaning that the remedy for a problem must be of the same nature as the problem itself. Such an intransigent attitude to use a particular kind of individuals remained not only the leitmotif of the Serbian State Security during the 90es, but also described well the choice of men who were chosen to join in some manner to this service, and consecutively the result of their activities which exceeded most probably any worst expectation one can have. The recruitment of the State Security was made from every social stratum in order to become a large as possible network of „associates‟. For instance journalist, lawyers, politicians were used to work in this closed system of social interactions which changed only its form but newer its content. It has gone through recent „cosmetic changes‟39 unfortunately no lustration of its activities – from its creation and 35

f.i. See statement of Mladen Lojović, former police inspector in Naša Borba daily, Beograd, FR Yugoslavia, April 20 1997. Also see statement of Boţidar Spasić, former employee of the State Security in the documentary „The crime that changed Serbia‟ (See you in obituary) a 1995 35-minute documentary directed by Janko Baljak based on the book The Crime That Changed Serbia by Aleksandar Kneţevi ć and Vojislav Tufegdţi ć. He stated that during 25 years of service he was the last 9 years the chief of a group for special actions at broad. He personally „helped‟ in the transfer of 120 criminals in foreign countries, insuring them false documents, etc. 36 The earliest testimony dates from the 60es (fieldwork) 37 The following pattern was employed in the „elimination‟ of dissident individuals at broad: they were mainly „eliminated‟ when they were alone, in their own apartments, by a cold weapon, in ambush, at night, and rarely causing „collateral damages‟. Source: interview of Aleksandar Čotrić (deputy of Minister for Diaspora 20042007) who investigated the archives. 38 Expression used by Dušan Stupar 1984-1987 – chief of the State Security (UDBA) in Belgrade, who affirmed in the documentary Službena tajna (Secret of the service- serial of Insider B92 network), that a “combat” was lead against emigrants who threatened in any way the Yugoslavia (and therefore assassination was used as a last measure of neutralization of the enemy). 39 Sluzbena Tajna‟ Insajder (The secret of the service by Insider) series by Brankica Stanković broadcasted by the independent network B92 runs intermittently and is one of the rare cases of investigative journalism on Serbian television

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especially form the Milosevic period was never made. At present the State Security (BIA) and the army intelligence (VBA) are still in position to divulge only the information which they find suitable, because they are no legal mechanisms to check that information more thoroughly. The use of criminals in ranks of the State Security was so general and frequent that in literature about the organized crime group in Western Balkans that several authors (Arsovka 2006, Stojarova 2006) suggested a very vivid term to describe the interdependency of their relation: symbiosis. The blueprint how criminals were employed by the secret service was well illustrated by the statement of Aleksandar Vasiljević, who was the chief of the Military Intelligence between 1991 and 1992, and deputy chief 1990-200140: “A selection [of individuals] was made from the world of underground, who had access in West or in milieus were that emigration moved, and following the decisions from the highest position in the country those liquidations were accomplished.” He also confirmed that Arkan was employed as well, a fact which was largely discussed in the press of the nineties in Serbia as well as at broad, especially after his assassination (2001), making him a particularly „shiny‟ example of successful amalgam between his criminal talents employed for a „bigger purpose‟. He was the most successful illustration of the use of an individual with criminal inclinations first in the service of the State Security at broad, and then as a paramilitary combatant in the conflictual territories of the former federation. Arkan or Ţeljko Raţnatović was „functional‟ to the State Security already during the 80es and was sponsored by Stane Dolanc, the Federal Minister of Interior and later member of the Federal Presidency. Dolanc said that “one Arkan is worth more than the whole of the SDB” (Arsovka 2006). After his assassination the independent press observed his fantastic rise in the Serbian society reaching a status of a pop icon, his „exploits on the battlefields‟ and the financial success that followed those exploits and find that maybe „his time just run out‟ meaning that he served his masters and their epoch well to became finally a surplus. The fact that Arkan was from an officers family was a guarantee for his „patriotic feelings‟41, the media stated that his father recognized early on (Vreme n° 472, 22. January 2000) that his son is a „bad seed‟ destining him for a government institution that needed such „quality‟ for its requirements. It was irrelevant if the person previously had a criminal record - and even if he continued his criminal „career‟ while he was employed by the agency - a opportunity was given to him to demonstrate his „patriotic feelings‟42. The employment of such type of criminals, as Arkan was, starting in his youth as a petty thief and developing later in a bandit and a murderer was justifiable by its practicality which was to skillfully eliminate the “enemies of the state constitution”. Besides the interviews in newspapers, television or documentaries made by the Serbian press with former policeman, State Security agents willing to talk about the hiring of criminals for „national interests‟, the public had the opportunity to hear from another source more details about such an engagement. It was a testimony of a protected witness 43 of the 40

Službena tajna (Secret of the service), series emitted in October and November 2008 at the B92 network. From the serial Insajder (Insider) series by Brankica Stanković runs intermittently and is one of the rare cases of investigative journalism on Serbian television. 41 Statement of Dušan Stupar 42 idem 43 Witness C-048 at trial of Slobodan Milosevic at the ICTY 29th of April 2003

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ICTY (in 2003) who was also an „employee‟ of the State Security who gave a statement about the quarrel between the hired „tuff guys‟, the employees of the State Security. In March 1990 one of them Veselin Vukotić aka Vesko killed another, Andrija Lakonić during an argument in a restaurant. This murder was covered up by the State Security. Although it was a clear case of murder, he was given pardon, probably because earlier (February 1990) he did a service to the State Security by killing Enver Hadriu, a Kosovo Human Right Activist. The same witness testified as well that is was a regular practice of the State Security to organize killings of individuals considered as threat. His statement shows a high degree of immunity of the „hired personnel‟ which was gracefully pardoned by the agency due probably by their merits. No matter about their flops, they were practically immune (Stojarova 2006). In the same manner Arkan enjoyed the same immunity assured by the State Security when he encountered trouble: when Arkan was arrested in 1981 in Switzerland, SDB organized his escape from the Lugano prison (Arsovska 2006) and some other occasions too44. This remarkable quid pro quo tells a lot about the specific inner relations between this institution and its hired personnel based on their „merits‟ and the possible premeditated future interests45 of the agency. What was practiced during the Titoist regime and the 80es was just multiply amplified the following decade. During the nineties the interests of the State Security shifted toward other interests then the „enemies at broad‟, the enemies were now at home soil and were until recently brothers in arms. “During Milošević‟s era, the process of politicization and militarization of the police was present side by side with an increase in crime, rising and widespread corruption in the state administration, tolerance for criminal activities, legal anaemia and total moral decay in society.” (Stojarova 2006:100) The autocratic political elite, the corruption at all levels of the society (from the healthcare to the judicial system, etc.) just relieved the collaboration between the seemingly separated social stratums. The crime was omnipresent in all possible forms: “ […]the regime of Slobodan Milosevic was not only corrupted, autocratic, and criminalized: it was a criminal regime, whose whole security sector was deeply involved not just in war crimes, but also in classic forms of organized crime: drug and weapons trafficking, extortion, kidnappings, and targeted assassinations.” (Anastasijević 2006: 2) When the Milosevic regime find itself in the situation that for the realization of the project of a Great Serbia the use of the JNA (the federal regular army) became impossible, the paramilitary units which were already more or less present at the conflictual territories stepped in. In 1992 when UN ordered all member countries to cut commercial ties with the country Serbia promised to respect Bosnia‟s territorial integrity. The JNA (the Yugoslavian People‟s Army) was withdrawn from Bosnia leaving the „space‟ to the paramilitary units which involvement Milosevic constantly denied. (Ron 2000:290-291) Earlier, in order to grasp a complete power of all intelligence the Milosevic regime united the military secret service under the surveillance of the State Security (April 1992), as one witness stated it was a “return to the state of OZNA”, when all intelligence (military and civil) was under one command. All the law-enforcing institutions, the intelligence service – 44

In 1983 Arkan had an argument in an elevator with a person which ended with severe injuries he had done to him. At his trial later on, on the question about his profession he stated that he is an employee of „the federal police‟ and showed a document (a mortgage for his house paid by the Federal Secretary of Internal Affairs) which proved his statement. The weekly Vreme n° 472, 22. January2000 45 such as blackmailing in exchange for the immunity

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along with the „hired personnel‟ in a form of common criminals – were merged into an extensive system of parallel (black) economies to circumvent the UN-imposed sanctions (Anastasijević 2006: 5). “The purpose of these economies was twofold: first, to profit those involved; second, to serve as a safety valve, and thus prevent a popular uprising of the impoverished population, which became absolutely dependent on the black market and the shadow economy. This dependency also cemented the bond between the Serbian security apparatus and organized crime. And while the smuggling channels during the war were mostly used for trafficking oil, cigarette, tobacco, and arms, after the war‟s end and the lifting of sanctions, same channels and networks were used for more profitable drugs smuggling operations. And again, the State Security played a pivotal role.” (Anastasijević 2006: 5) The measure taken to reunite all intelligence activity under one control only assisted to a broader development of paramilitary units and their empowerment. At that moment the paramilitaries are serving as bodyguards (security staff) to the leading army officers. The paramilitary units infiltrated the regular army. One incident in particular shows how collaborative this relation was: Milorad Luković Ulemek aka Legija was arrested in Bosnia by the Bosnian Muslim forces having such a legitimation of the regular army of the Yugoslav federation (April the 8th 1992). In the mean time, in Croatia and Bosnia the armed conflicts continued. “Arms smuggling, having been facilitated by the security services, officers and army units in the former republics, had been regarded as a patriotic activity bringing benefit for society during national independent wars. […] He [Milosevic] also portrayed that state run contraband operation as a genuine patriotic effort for national survival under an embargo regime. Organised crime was a tool of Milosevic‟s government, and it served his political, military and economic goals”. (Arsovka 2006: 10) The illicit commerce, smuggling of goods, and other illegal activities flourished in war territories (Andreas 2004) as well in Serbia, the matrix of the paramilitary unities. These events happened while Serbia became poorer with every day and while the members of the State Security (those employed „regularly‟) „earned‟ houses, states, business, etc46. The ingenuity of the system which backed up the paramilitary units was limitless. “Arms exports to Iraq and Libya were coordinated by Jugoimport SDPR, Serbia's official military procurement agency, which used a set of supposedly privately owned letter-box companies to hide its activities and bypass controls. Interestingly, one of these companies, known as JPL Systems, was known to be founded as far back as 1995, by the Serbian State Security, and was specialized in manufacturing and exporting rocket fuel to the Middle East.” (Anastasijević 2006: 12) The business competences of the Yugoslav/Serbian State Security were claimed as a „routine practice‟ which existed already during the epoch of the Yugoslav federation. According to the statement of Dušan Stupar, a former agent and chief of the State Security the agency during the 80es, other states securities of the eastern bloc from the Second World War onward, were involved in smuggling cigarettes to finance themselves. The „business‟ activities which defined the Serbian State Security as a profit-making organization were resumed by a statement, which became a picturesque leitmotiv ever since 46

Službena tajna (Secret of the service), series emitted in October and November 2008 at the B92 network. From the serial Insajder (Insider) series by Brankica Stanković runs intermittently and is one of the rare cases of investigative journalism on Serbian television.

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to describe the Milosevic era and its values. It was a statement of Vladimir Popović, the chief of Communication bureau of the government of Serbia 2001-2003 (and also a close friend of the murdered PM ĐinĎić): “The State Security, the politicians of Milosevic, the tycoons of Milosevic, who made business during the preceding decade under the cover of war and patriotism on the territories of the former Yugoslavia followed the principle: “War in Bosnia, tug-truck on the road, lamb on barbecue, a folk singer on the table, and me as a patriot on TV”47. Finally the war in Croatia and then Bosnia was over, and a part of the paramilitaries was free to return to their native territories. Those who feared retribution from their former neighbors and the newly created legal authorities settled in the Matrix, Serbia (Vivod 2009). The most suitable48 combatants from several diverse paramilitary units were chosen to make the core of a „new‟ unit, created in 1996 – according to speculations for to be eventually employed to the crisis in the country and in fear from the general dissatisfaction of the population. This unity-compilation was given the name JSO (Jedinica za Specijalne Operacije – Special Operations Unit) or the famous Red Berets (Crvene Beretke). It leader became Milorad Luković Ulemek aka Legija49 who served until that moment under the command of Arkan. Once the Milosevic regime has fallen, during the following four months the data of the State Security was systemically destroyed until finally its chief was dismissed from his position. A deep reform of the State Security was to be expected and at least a partial lustration of the activities and relation with the criminal underground. When the process of the reform was finally initiated it was only partial (Arsovka 2006). The consequences of such partial reform are still felt today. “The Security Act, hastily written and adopted by the Serbian Assembly in 2002, contains no provisions which would allow outside investigation of the Agency's activities: on several instances, attempts by Serbian courts and prosecutors to get even basic information regarding cases where BIA was involved were ignored, or even bluntly rejected. The agency is formally responsible to Serbia's Prime Minister, but even his authority is limited. Prime Minister can hire and fire BIA's Director, but even he does not have legal instruments to force the agency to do anything it essentially does not want to do.” (Anastasijević 2006: 13.) The biggest direct consequence of such an autonomy that the Serbian State Security enjoyed – and still does – was the assassination of the PM ĐinĎić a year later (2003). After the murder or the PM, in the swift police action the „Saber‟ (Sablja) details, data about the relations between the organized crime groups, the special operations unit (JSO) and 47

[Sluţbe drţavne bezbednosti i Miloševićevih političara, Miloševićevih tajkuna, koji su u prethodnih desetak godina pod mantilom rata i patriotizma na teritoriji bivše Jugoslavije se bavili biznisom. Po principu "rat u Bosni, šleper na putu, jagnje na raţnj u, pevaljka na stolu, a ja preko televizije patriota".] statement given: Službena tajna (Secret of the service), series emitted in October and November 2008 at the B92 network. From the serial Insajder (Insider) series by Brankica Stanković runs intermittently and is one of the rare cases of investigative journalism on Serbian television. 48 It seemed as picking up the most „problematic‟ individuals from the previous units was a preferable practice. According to Zoran Mijatović, chief of the RDB center in Belgrade 1993-1998, deputy chief RDB-a 2001, he was asked to separate the negative dossier from those individuals he would recommend. At the opening ceremony in the basis of this unit (city of Kula), at his great surprise he recognized some of the individuals he evaluated as non fitting. Justification for this practice is the same principal which lead the former chiefs of the Yugoslav State Security to employ asocial individuals with criminal preferences. For an organization of combat units these „elements‟ are most suitable. Mijatović find the request of Frenki Simatović (the chief in command of the JSO) reasonable. 49 He served until that moment under the command of Ţeljko Raţnatov ić aka Arkan

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the State Security started to unwrap. Not only the main elements of the murder of the PM were discovered, other precedent assassinations (f.i. the murder of Ivan Stambolić (supra), the former „sponsor‟ of Milosevic) came out where the state securities as well as several members of the special operations unit were highly involved, revealing a particular modus operandi. “The assassination of Prime Minister Zoran Djindjić was the impulse for starting to “hunt” criminals”. (Stojarova 2006: 9) “In the aftermath of the prime minister‟s murder, the Serbian government undertook the largest and fiercest campaign against organised crime witnessed so far in any post-socialist country. During this action more then 10 000 suspects were arrested and over 4 500 were detained in custody. Serbian police brought 3 919 charges against 3 400 people, suspected of committing 5 812 crimes. (Arsovka 2006: 13) Unfortunately only few faced trial for those charges. As it turned out during the trials of the member of the JSO (Red Berets) the connection between the State Security and the criminal underground continued successfully50 once when Milosevic was gone. A former member of the Red Berets JSO became the second man of the State Security (practically its chief during a period of time). And the connections with the mob, particularly the Zemun Clan were reinforced (Anderson 2004, Anastasijević 2006). The leading members of the Zemun gang underwent “special training courses” by the State Security, and the agency routinely provided protection in a form of immunity for the gang members. (Anastasijević 2006) “The Zemun gang‟s main field of operation was drug smuggling, but they were also engaged in kidnappings, extortion, and targeted assassinations. The only explanation from BIA‟s officials was that the gang members were providing the agency with “valuable data on Albanian terrorists in Kosovo”. Curiously, neither the prosecutors nor the judge demanded further explanations, or decided to probe into this matter.” (Anastasijevic 2006:5) The Serbian government decided to dissolve the Red Berets on 23 March 2003 as a result of the indictment of one of its members for the assassination of ĐinĎić. Which institutions undertook the highly entrained former unit members (and were they redirected at all) is unknown51. The reform of the State Security service which started in 2002 is still an ongoing process. The security services based on the model of engaging criminals, organized crime groups are according some opinions the last surviving example of undemocratic institutions of this type in Europe (Stojarova 2006). At present Serbia is struggling with crime in general 50

51

An interesting insight into the way the crime gangs co-operate can be obtained from the case of Qamil Shabani, an ethnic Albanian from Urosevac. Shabani was a close associate of Metush Bajrami, an ethnic Albanian from Macedonia with a Bulgarian citizenship, who supervised heroin transports via Turkey, Bulgaria, and Macedonia. But Shabani was also linked with the Serbian crime ring known as the Zemun gang, which was well-connected with BIA, Serbian largest security agency. Until the ring was busted, members of the Zemun gang were regularly picking up heroin shipments from Shabani‟s warehouse in Urosevac and transported them into Serbia through the Presevo valley; thanks to their connections with BIA, their vehicles were often escorted by Serbian security officers, ensuring the trucks could pass through police checkpoints without being searched. The scheme worked until the leaders of the Zemun gang and their BIA accomplices were arrested in 2003, after they organized the assassination of Zoran Djindjić, Serbia‟s Prime Minister. (Anastasijević 2006:4) In the documentary of Filip Švarm, an investigative journalist, „Jedinica „ (Child of the Service‟) Dušan Mihajlović who was a Minister of Interior during the ĐinĎić government (2001-2004) gave a statement why the JSO or the Red Berets were not disbanded, after the fall of the Milosevic regime and after the strike they engaged (November 2001) which had all the appearance of a military coup: “It wouldn‟t be wise to let out on the street hundred and seventy or two hundred highly entrained murderer and to let them to get along by themselves and to become bodyguards or, I don‟t know security services of various shady businessmen.” (“Ne bi bilo mudro da nekih sto sedamdeset ili ajde dvesta visoko profesionalno obučenih ubica da pustimo na ulicu, i da ih pustimo da se oni snalaze, i da postanu telohranitelji ili ne znam, sluţbe obezbedjenja, raznoraznih sumjivih biznismena.”)

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and particularly with highly organized crime groups. There are indications that the former paramilitary members are the directly implicated in organized groups active on several continents and engaging in illicit activities such as assassinations, extortion, money laundering and drugs52. Organized crime threatens the stability of every state, especially a week state in transition - as it was demonstrated with the assassination of the PM ĐinĎić. The high level of corruption, a dysfunctional legal system is making a perfect „climate‟ for the development of organized crime groups, especially with a high number of unemployed (para)military personal. The lack of moral authority to enforce and to apply laws felt until recently in Serbia, send out an indirect message that the reform that the government recently made and is trying to apply focuses only at an „ordinary individual‟. The practice to engage individuals with a criminal record was justified by their motivations which were – according to the testimonies of the former employees of the State Security patriotic. It seems that this criterion, the „pure patriotic‟ sentiments of an individual were put on a pedestal above all other values as for instance, respect of the laws and basic civil values, and presented an ultimate, the most important concept which justified all conduct and motivations. It seemed as the State Security not only engaged criminals as regular „employees‟ of its agencies, it was an institutions which supported itself from crime and in this manner promoted various forms of crime. It introduced an institutionalized crime for it purposes to become finally a crime institution. The last couple of years of the Milosevic regime, and after its fall the confusion between the criminal elements (personal, actions, etc.) and the institution were total. The limits of the dichotomy who was a criminal, who was a regular employee of the intelligence service, disappeared.

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The Patriotic Outlaws The restoration of the past conflicts, tensions and animosities between the ethnic groups which occurred in the history of the Balkans was blamed as one of the principal causes of the war on the territories of former Yugoslavia (Judah 1997, Čolović 2000 abc, van de Port 1999, etc.). The examples taken from the past antagonisms in a form of the major historic events (such as the battle of Amselfeld) were bluntly exploited in the war machinery personified in various political parties, the media in order to „heat up‟ the spirits. This rhetoric of warlanguage inspired from the past events was mostly used in Serbia (Čolović 2000), although it was also spread in Bosnia and Croatia to justify the state, and para-state violence (Ţanić 2007). The political à-prioris about the eternal animosities between the ethnic groups were 52

Two recent criminal affaires were followed by statements and indications that the former member of the Serbian paramilitary units were actively taking part in organized crime groups: in September 2009 the G4S Västberga helicopter robbery in Sweden and the ongoing international police operation called the „Balkan Warrior‟ (January – February 2010). One month prior to the helicopter robbery, the Swedish Embassy in Belgrade was allegedly given "certain information about a criminal group which was preparing a robbery" by the Serbian police. The Serbian Interior Minister Ivica Dačić claimed that former members of the paramilitary Red Berets took part in the robbery. A G4S cash service depot was robbed in Västberga. The robbers used a stolen Bell 206 Jet Ranger. The highly militarized robbery indicates that the robbers were professionally trained in skills such as use of bomb decoys, helicopter handling, caltrops, etc.The Swedish police arrested six male suspects in connection with the robbery. http://www.rtv.rs/sr_lat/hronika/u-svedskoj-uhapsena-sestorica-pljackasa-mup- provalio-crvene-beretke_149935.html and http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/09/23/stock holm.helicopter.heist/index.html

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the main topics used in political speeches, newspapers (Čolović 2000b). The language used is such occasions, such as political rallies, through the press, in front of the units was militant 53, archetypal, inspired by the rhythm of the epic poetry (the traditional decasyllabic rhyme) (Čolović 2000a : 313). The past was revived once again and a continual link was created between the past and the present where only the nation presented a lasting paradigm. “As a result of this mythical perception of time, not only have the soldiers from earlier world wars—the Ustasha and Chetnicks—reappeared or been resurrected in public discussions, but also glorious ancestors and heroes of all epochs, including mythical or legendary figures from the history of the Balkans. Our political and military leaders are surrounded and protected by an entire retinue of the most important names from national history and folklore”. (Čolović 2000c). This collective imaginary was organized around the metaphors, style and symbolic meanings having their roots, their origins in epic poetry and in an imagined collective history. The main personage of this imaginary exploited in this manner was the mythical hero –the combatant. “The Serbian warriors live and act in harmony with nature as well. They are distinguished by their exemplary physical and moral health, for they have preserved and strengthened in themselves the natural impulse to hate the enemy and to destroy him. The ideal of the natural person finds its highest realization, however, in the fusion of peasant and military virtue in the shape of the peasant-warrior. According to this ideology, life in peace as well as life outside the village deforms natural human vitality. Therefore, a life full of danger under the constant threat of attack by the enemy is much healthier: a life full of contradictions, the life of a warrior. Based on her competence as a biologist, Biljana Plavsic54 comes to the conclusion that "...the Serbians in Bosnia, and in the border regions in particular, have maintained and sharpened the ability to recognize danger for the nation early on and to develop the mechanisms for its defense. In my family it was said that the Serbians in Bosnia are much better than those in Serbia... I am a biologist, and therefore I know that those species which live next to others and are constantly threatened by others have the best possibility to adapt.” (Čolović 2000c). The prototype of the combatant is brave hearted, generous and righteous, nevertheless with an ambiguous nature: he sometimes cruel, irrational and impulsive and always as minority in a resistance (Jansen 2000) and obstinately different from others (van de Port 1999). The imaginary about the heroic resistance of the weak ones was largely exploited during the Titoitst regime – by the means one of the most wide-speeded examples in a form of movies about the heroic deeds of partisans, who although weaker in armament, and numbers they come out as victorious. This leitmotif was successfully perpetuated at the beginning in 90es.The politicians, the warlords exploited largely in their speeches55- and sometimes even 53

On a video made by the members of a paramilitary unit the „Scorpions‟ (the scene is later incorporated in a documentary of „Scorpios-the home movie‟ (Škorpioni- spomenar) an orthodox priest is giving his blessing to the troop while reciting an improvised riming speech in a form of verses: “Brothers the Turks became vampires, wanting the Serb sanctities. Give to your faithful army to conquer the enemy nation.” (Braćo, Turci se povampiriše. Hoće srpske svetinje. Daj vernoj vojsci tvojoj da bude na savlađivanje neprijateljskog naroda.”) 54 N.a. Biljana Plavšić is a former Bosnian Serb politician and university professor that recently served two-thirds of a sentence in Sweden as a result of a conviction by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY) for war crimes 55 In the documentary of Filip Svarm „The Unit‟ (Jedinica) 2006, a private video is used about Arkan in front of his troops. Arkan is encouraging the men, by invoking the name of Obilić (a Serbian medieval knight, the icon of many epic songs). Another example of the powerful image of this mythical personage which inspired identification: at the trial at the Special Tribunal for war crimes in Belgrade to the former members of the

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contradictory- the mutual history of the ethnic groups fighting the Otoman Empire, to mobilize nationalist sentiments and in the process of self legitimation (Ţanić 2007). Its pivotal personage was the personality of the hajduk. The hajduk56-mythology was widely exploited in the medias assuring the general support of the public. The massive employment of the hajduk-imaginary in everyday life, such as in music, in public speech, in the press generated the mobilization of military values in the society. Earlier hypothesis about the study of the Balkan clan social organizations and the practice of violence attributed the physical force and the geographical mobility of the dinaroid57 population resulted in organization of groups of bandits and combatants which dominant social ideals are to be found in military values, such as heroism, belonging and loyalty to the clan, blood and honor codes, etc. (Tomašić 1948, Cvijić 2006). This theory supported a culture-bounded violence which roots are in an authoritarian patriarchal society inspired by the mythical figures of hajduks and uskoks. Although the basic „profession‟ of the hajduk and uskok is the robbery, their main feature is „robinhood-esque‟, there are stealing from the rich, the Turkish conquerors which makes their actions noble. They are attacking the enemy, and they are supporting / supported by the people58. “Geographical Serbia was a place where the Christian population had little real legal protection from the Ottoman state. This led to fear and resentment, and bred an everpresent hostility among the Serbian population toward the Ottoman state. Many Serb individuals who were called by the Ottoman authorities to show up in a town for questioning (be it for minor indiscretions of the law, failure to pay taxes, or to provide information about other Serb individuals sought by the Ottoman authorities), whether guilty or not, feared for their life to the point that they would frequently avoid showing up altogether”. (Petrović 2000) The geo-political situation of the former Yugoslavia, the countless shifts between the armed rebellion and the ever changing configurations of political violence during its history promoted the development of the hajduks and uskoks units and helped their social acceptance giving them even an important role in the cultural life, in a form of epic songs, stories about their deeds. In the most recent conflicts, similarly as before, the inheritors of the hajduk and uskok movements founded their ideal place: “In the lasting inadequacy between state and society, which is characteristic of the Yugoslav space, the militias are therefore on the side of the state, organizing provocative actions in order to sow fear and distrust in the population, tearing away local fighters from their village in order to create a territory, expelling the people whose ethnic identity does not fit with this territory. Instruments in the building of national states, militias are thrown back into the depth of Balkan societies by the nationalist Scorpios (for the massacres in Podujevo in Kosovo and the massacre in Trnovo in Bosnia) the members (the accused and the witness) are confronted to each other. The accused replies to the witness (his subordinate) that “a real Serbian Obilić would never accused his commander”. 56 Hajduk [hayduk]] is a term most commonly referring to outlaws, highwaymen or freedom fighters in the Balkans, Central- and Eastern Europe 57 broad category comprehending several genetically unrelated types whose origins are in the Dinarid mountains 58 Vuk Stefanovic Karadzic write for the hajduk that there was less hajduk as the Turkish government was more human, and that their number raised as the conquerors became harsher. He also adds that there were also honest hajduks, and that at the beginning there were certainly issued from the nobility. Interestingly he adds that those who are going to join the hajduks are not going to do harm, but the isolation from the human society make the individual bad and they start doing harm to others, even to their own people (meaning the Serbs). Source: Vuk Stef. Karadţ ić, Srpski rječnik (1852), II, Sabrana dela Vuka Karadţ ića, knj. 11, prir. Jovan Kašić, Izdanje o stogodišnjici smrti Vuka Stefanovića Karadţi ća 1864-1964, Prosveta, Beograd 1987

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ideologies. And such a reversal does not represent a fortuitous intellectual error, but a real political mystification.” (Bougarel 1999: 173) Earlier the same „recipe‟ of the „useful outlaw‟ was applied in the protection of the state interests at broad. If the method of use of criminals as State Security „special employees‟ during the Titoist regime was a system to channelized criminality, and to cope with organized crime groups remains uncertain. The foucaultian thesis that the criminal is a figure of power and knowledge through which the state deploys techniques of discipline and control could be clearly applied in that case. The use of criminals by the State Security to deal with the enemies at broad was justified by the key similia similibus, meaning „likes are cured by likes‟. This homeopathic principal was confirmed on two occasions by the testimonies of the employees in charge of the State Security (supra) which state about its acceptance and a wide range use. The enemies of that time of former Yugoslav constitution, the political dissidents, the opponents of the Titoist regime were considered of the „same type‟ as the men hired to deal with them. Such a use of criminals according to the testimonies of former employees of the Serbian State Security59 in order to back up the state institutions was habitual in former countries of Warsaw pact, and the state services were accustomed to finance themselves with funds gained from criminal activities (supra), such as for instance the smuggling of cigarettes60. It was just a „natural reflex‟ to continue the organization of this „category‟ of men in the open conflicts under a new form, such as militia. The revival of the myths about the hajduks and the uskoks just has made easier and more socially acceptable such a practice. Following this practice inherited from the Titoist regime the Serbian State Security continued this practice as a response to coop with the turmoil started with the decomposition of the former Yugoslav federation. The recipe for the use of paramilitary units, as well as the use of criminals was the same with the similar advantages: they executed the tasks, without incriminating the state or its institutions directly. The precedent criminal carrier and the criminal behavior of several these unit members made easier to use the plausible deniability as a potential defense and represented the one of the advantages of this strategy61. The criminal inclinations and the precedent experience in the crime-milieu made them more suitable for the task of to become a modern hajduk, an outlaw-combatant. The only criterion required to be accepted and to „rise up in ranks of a militia‟ -as previously for a criminal to become a defender of the communist ideology (supra) - was the patriotism, one‟s „patriotic feelings‟, the ultimate loyalty toward his ethnic group. This criterion was above all others such as one‟s criminal record, mental health, etc. This narrow standard indicates the importance which was given to the collectivity, where the individual‟s role is reduced only to serve the unity. The advantages of the use of criminals in the affairs of the State Security, as the already confirmed abilities of men without a preliminary entrainment, and the possible financial gain which this institution could or had made through the activities of its „employees,‟ are also plausible. The institution enjoyed a protected role in this power-relation: these individuals 59

Statement of Dušan Stupar, chief of the Belgrade UDBA (State Security) 1984-1987 in Sluzbena Tajna‟ Insajder (The secret of the service by Insider) documentary-series by Brankica Stanković broadcasted by the independent network B92 60 In similar manner as Arkans activities supported the Milosevic regime, Stalin, at the time of his carier of a bandit financed the revolution of Lenin (Sebag Montefiore, S. (2007) Young Staline, Weidenfeld & Nicolson). 61 The argument of plausible deniability is abundantly used and it is used at the trials at ICTY and local tribunal for war crimes.

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were at its mercy, and were little more than simple slaves – hired when needed and easily exchanged or disposable62. From the perspective of an individual, such a deal with a government institution was an ideal occasion to be pardoned for some earlier „sins‟ - to merit the love reserved for the sinful son (Čolović 2000: 356), to earn immunity for some future ones, and to maintain their lifestyle with criminal activities on the side. The attraction of the social belonging, to „work for some greater cause,‟ is not to be underestimated, beside the material benefices. The appealing side of this contract, this quid pro quo between the institution and the individual, is the possibility for the individual to adhere as a functional part of the pyramidal organization where he wished to be near the top; to serve a master with a noble cause. To be part of a cultural hegemony embodied in a social class, which norms and ideas are dominant for until that moment to an individual on a social margin, is an attractive attribute which gave an additional „kick‟ to the motivation. The ambiguous character of criminals (generous and cruel), inspired by the imaginary hajduk-model, which presents in itself a perfect dichotomy of good and bad, was applied to the major Serbian mobsters at the beginning of the 90s, and was transmitted to the paramilitary unit members, which resulted in a wide social acceptance of the predatory behavior. The imagined precondition (better said an illusion) that these paramilitary units harmed „only to the enemy‟ and not compatriots, to the individuals from the same ethnic group, guaranteed a wide social acceptance, and endorsed their popularity, while justifying that crime is not always unmoral and punishable. The fact that many of these unit members – a part of their well known mediatic leaders - were individuals with previous criminal records just evoked the collective imagery of the righteous outlaw fighting for the good cause. Everything was, and remains, pardoned if was done in the name of patriotism. The measure of the patriotic merits acted as an „amnesty‟ for all what was committed previously, or in the process of making it, and assured a social advancement63. Publically designated as heroes rather than war criminals, the social construction, with roots in the collective past, in the epic poetry, heroes and events which had taken place in the (imagined) collective history, ensured for them, at least during the 90s, a wide social recognition and esteem. Represented as the masculine ideal for their authority (which has to be cruel under the pattern taken from the epic poetry), their appearance (men familiar with guns), the social status they quickly earned, through the media represented group cohesion and loyalty they showed to each other makes them, even now for many, the example to be looked up on. The paramilitary units, especially in the case of Serbia, are a demonstrative example of the powerful use of the culture and the popular imagery in times of crisis. This deadly exercise of culture facilitated the numerous injustices, crimes and killings, serving as a perfect folding screen called „patriotism‟. The revival and the populism of national myths and archetypes of the Jungian sense (or better said Jungian collective shadows) enabled the creation, and the wide-spread support on institutional level, as on the social level of these units made and lead partially from criminals. The gate of the massive social acceptance of 62

According to statement of Dusan Mihajlovic the Interior Minister during the ĐinĎić government: the members of the Special Operations Units “were held on contract, as a kind of legionaries, almost as slaves, that the Service [State Security] could let off any minute” source: series of documentaries of Filip Svarm „Jedinica‟ (The Unit) 2006. 63 F.i. Arkan also had „excursions‟ in the Serbian parliament in 1992 and again in 1993 by winning the elections with his party.

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individuals who represented - and still represent – an embodiment of epic heroes was opened by the social acceptance of the predatory behavior incarnated in early 90s in mobsters. The interior mechanisms between the nationalism and criminality were fully understood and exploited by the State Security of the Titoist regime and permitted the creation of militias by respecting the same pattern. Under the cover of patriotism serious criminal offences were allowed, supported and justified. Unfortunately, this recipe proved to work for the organization of the paramilitary units as well, and depicted the relation of government institutions toward the organized crime at least before the murder of PM ĐinĎić. The eventual indications that this attitude possibly lingers in press commentaries, blogs and comments of recent events related to the organized crime: the dream to gather „bounty‟ from the western countries and in this manner to give a necessary „push‟ to the Serbian economy.

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Conclusion The war which raged for almost a whole decade across the territories of former Yugoslavia was indeed of a crimogenic character, particularly in Serbia‟s case. The paramilitaries, with their leaders converted (or re-converted in some cases) in criminal gangs and bosses, continued their activities, whose roots were well-planted in the chaos of a civil war, in post-Milosevic Serbia as well. That particular decade was a „marvelous‟ opportunity to make a large fortune in a short period of time and „ascend‟ from one social class to another. Everyone with an ambition and a reversed set of principles could attain his goals, regardless of whether those goals were pecuniary or political ones. The Milosevic regime was a perfect environment that offered an ideology to support the motivations on the surface and the logistical help for the groups and individuals interested in such an opportunity. While they were serving the regime, it served them even better. The regime has fallen since the previous decade, but the accumulated richness and social power live on. The long tradition of the Yugoslav, and consecutively the Serbian State Security to „recruit‟ criminals and individuals with a doubtful past just added to the broader development of criminal activities during the series of armed conflicts, facilitated the criminalization of the state institutions, of the whole society, and assured a creation of a frame for the organized crime groups to come. It is quite a challenge for the Serbian state and society to reverse the criminal elements deeply enrooted in public institutions and the thinking patterns of great part of the society. The question of what exactly has happened with the former members of the JSO -the Red Berets - the sum of almost all Serbian paramilitary units active during the nineties, remains open. According to some sources64 the members were dispersed in different police units, mainly as employees of the Serbian Ministry of Interior. The Serbian Gendarmerie was created, and according to the description of its service it seems that the former JSO members found a new habitat, a new perfect (and legal!) affiliation where their training and skills (and social connections?) are welcomed and appreciated. Those who were on the payment records of the State Security probably remained there. They almost certainly represent a valuable „resource‟ to this institution. And there is, perhaps, a third category of individuals, former 64

On the website of the MUP (Serbian Interior Ministry) can be found a statement that the creation of the Serbian Gendarmerie (the 25th of June 2001) was one of the postulates of a newly created democratic government. According to one of the author‟s informants the EU official demanded a creation of a gendarmerie in order to begin the „europeization‟ of the law enforcement.

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members with special skills, with a particular taste developed during their attachment to such a semi-military unit, who remain „freelancers‟, in quest for a new „source of income‟ in the branch of special services, such as private or public security, mercenary, etc. The continuation of criminal activities is of course unsurprising when it comes to the future destiny of individuals or groups with such a past. It appears to be a „natural‟ continuation of such a carrier. Highly trained, well-equipped men with developed expertise in activities which require military skills would be most likely tempted, if not succumbed already in making their monthly earnings through crime. The required skills, social connections and, above all, a spirit forged on group cohesion and loyalty represent all the needed elements in the creation of organized crime groups. Today Serbia is facing many difficulties after more than a decade of different turmoil on the social and economical scale. Hopelessness, powerlessness and unemployment are everyday‟s order when facing the social changes, injustice and insecurity. The economic crisis has lasted at least twenty years now and under education is very present. All these factors accentuate the social differences and push the individuals to undertake an action, a carrier or a lifestyle „no matter what‟, at the margins of the society. This is the particular moment when the above-mentioned motivations and skills are stepping in, and will eventually do so at the transnational level as well. We must keep in mind that the Serbian diaspora is relatively large and well connected with its Matrix; therefore an organized crime group can easily use transnational connections for its own purposes. This argument was supported by the former Serbian Minister of Interior, who realized what kind of „resource‟ could represent such a group of men in a poor country. It could represent a kind of „capital‟ which could be exported to abroad successfully. Shaky and corrupted political organizations and great social injustices in a poor country are an ideal hot bed for organized crime groups. According to the speculations in the independent press1 the idea to engage criminal activities in Western countries and then with those funds „lift up‟ the economy in Serbia was dreamed already a decade ago by the leaders of the Zemun clan, such as Milorad Ulemek-Luković aka Legija, the leader of the Red Berets convicted for the assassination of ĐinĎić. This „original idea‟ to engage criminal and illegal activity for a greater cause, for patriotic reasons, makes the motivations to harm others more „noble‟ and, therefore, more acceptable. This is an archyidea dating from the early launch of volunteer units which looted, raped and massacred at the beginning of the nineties „for the sake of protecting the Serbian nation‟… .Seemingly, the idea to „export‟ crime and to „import‟, or better said, strengthen a rich and powerful social class based on „warrior-aristocracy‟ is likely. Recent events support a possibility that the metamorphosized crimo-paramilitaries won‟t be left in oblivion and will be „exporting their skills‟ across the continents.

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Western Balkan Region, organized by the HUMSEC project in Ljubljana, 23-25 November 2006. http://www.etc-graz.at/cms/fileadmin/user_upload/humsec/Workin_ Paper_Series/Working_Paper_Anastasijevic.pdf. Andreas, P. (2004). The Clandestine Political Economy of War and Peace in Bosnia. International Studies Quarterly n°48, 29-51. Arsovka, J. (2006). Organised crime as threat to peace and security in postconflict situations, example of the Balkans. Paper given at the conference „Organized crime during the operations of peacekeeping‟ of The Research Centre for Military Law and the Law of War the 27th of April 2006. http://home.scarlet.be/~tsb93638/session/2006_04_27.pdf Biserko, S. (1999). Serbia: Dictatorship, Implosion or Recovery. Security Dialogue, 30, 289290. Bougarel, X. (1999). Yugoslav wars: The “Revenge of the countryside” between sociological reality and nationalist myth. East European Quarterly. Vol. 33, 157-175. Čolović, I. (2000a). Bordel ratnika.Beograd: Biblioteka XX vek. Čolović, I. (2000b). Politika simbola. Beograd: Biblioteka, XX vek. Čolović, I. (2000c). The Renewal of the Past: Time and Space in Contemporary Political Mythology. Other Voices, Vol.2, n°.1. http://www.othervoices.org/2.1/colovic/past.html Cvijić, J. (2006). Psihičke osobine juţn ih Slovena. Beograd : Srpska knjiţevna za druga. Delpla, I. (2007). Faits, responsabilités, intelligibilité : comparer les enquêtes et les rapports sur Srebrenica.. available online at: http://www.conflits.org/index2221.html Cultures & Conflits 65. Dobovšek, B. (2006). Transnational Organised Crime In the Western Balkans. Paper presented at the: First Annual Conference on Human Security, Terrorism and Organized Crime in the Western Balkan Region, organized by the HUMSEC project in Ljubljana, 23-25 November 2006. http://www.etc-graz.at/cms/fileadmin/user_upload/humsec/ Workin_Paper_Series/Working_Paper_Dobovsek.pdf. Duffy, G. & Lindstrom, N. (2002). Conflicting Identities: Solidary Incentives in the SerboCroatian War. Journal of Peace Research, vol. 39, no. 1, 69-90. Gill, H. E. (2004). Finding a middle ground between extremes: notes on researching transnational crime and violence. Anthropology Matters Journal, 6(2), http://www.anthropologymatters.com/journal/2004-2/gill_2004_finding.htm. Glaurdic, J. (2009). Inside the SerbianWar Machine.The Miloševic´ Telephone Intercepts, 1991-1992. East European Politics and Societies Volume 23 Number 1 February, 86-104. Ferrell, J. & Sanders, C. R. (1995). Cultural Criminology. Evanston: Northwestern University Press. Flottau. R. (1992). Wir hacken ihnen die Hand ab. Interview mit dem serbischen FreischärlerFührer Sinisa Vucinic über Kriegsgreuel in Bosnien. Der Speigel. 41/1992. 05.10.1992. 201b. The complete version of the interview (in Serbian) with the audio record available online at: http://www.pescanik.net/content/view/3803/65/. Fond za humanitarno pravo (2007). Škorpioni-od zločina do pravde. Beograd: Edicija: Dokumenta. Publikum. (Edition of the Humanitarian Law Center Belgrade (2007) (The Scorpios. From crime to justice. Belgrade: Dokumenta. Publikum). Gordy. Eric. D. (1999). The Culture of Power in Serbia. Nationalism and the Destruction of Alternatives, University Park : The Pennsylvania State University Press.

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Hagan, J. & Kutnjak -Ivkovic, S. (2006). War Crimes, Democracy, and the Rule of Law in Belgrade, the Former Yugoslavia, and Beyond. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 605, 129-151. Hartmann, F. (2002). Milošević, la diagonale du fou. Paris: Gallimard. Helsinški odbor za ljudska prava u Srbiji (2006). Svedočenje, pred Specijalnim sudomVladimira Popovića na suđenju za ubistvo Zorana Ðinđića. Beograd: Zagorac (published testimony of Vladimir Popović at the trial of Zoran ÐinĎić‟s murder). Hoare, M. A. (2006). Slobodan Milošević‟s Place in Serbian History. European History Quarterly, Vol. 36(3), 445-462. Hudson, R. (2003). Songs of Seduction: popular music and Serbian nationalism Patterns of Prejudice. Routledge, Vol. 37, n° 2, 157-177. Jankovic. S. (2007). The Status of Serbia‟s Intelligence Reform and its Challenges. In: Ebnöther A. H. & Stanicic M. & Felberbauer E. M. (Eds.), Security Sector Reform in South East Europe-from a Necessary Remedy to a Global Concept. 149-150. National Defence Academy and Bureau for Security Policy, in co-operation with the PfP Consortium of Defence Academies and Security Studies Institutes. Jansen, S. (2000). Victims, Underdogs and Rebels-Discursive Practices of Resistance in Serbian Protest. Critique of Anthropology, Vol. 20(4), 393-419. Judah, T. (1997). The Serbs: History, Myth and the Destruction of Yugoslavia. New Haven: Yale University Press. Klain, E. (1993). Destruction and Reparation in Groups During the War in Croatia. Group Analysis, 26, 109-118. Kronja, I. (2004). Turbo Folk and Dance Music in 1990s Serbia: Media, Ideology and the Production of Spectacle. The Anthropology of East Europe Review, Volume 2, Number 1 Spring, 103-114. Mac Ginty, R. (2001). Ethno-National Conflict and Hate Crime. American Behavioral Scientist, 45, 639-653. Mylonas, C. (2003). Serbian orthodox fundamentals: the quest for an eternal identity. Budapest: Central European University Press. Nordstrom, C. (2004). Shadows of War: Violence, Power, and International Profiteering in the Twenty-First Century. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press. Nikolić-Ristanović, V. (1998). War and Crime in the former Yugoslavia. In Ruggiero, V. & South N.& Taylor I. (Eds) New European Criminology, 462-480. London: Routledge. Picard, M. & Zinbo, A. (2007). Sur le rapport du gouvernement de la Republika Srpska. Cultures & Conflits 65. http://www.conflits.org/index2242.html. Penglase, B. & Kane, S. C. & Parnell, P. (2009). Interview: The “New Anthropology of Crime”. PoLAR: Political and Legal Anthropology Review, Vol. 32, Number 1, 105–123. Petrović, A. (2000). The role of banditry in the creation of national states in the central Balkans during the XIXth of century. A case study: Serbia. Rastko Project.Internet library of Serb culture. http://www.rastko.rs/istorija/xix/apetrovic-banditry_eng.html. van de Port, M. (1999). „It Takes a Serb to Know a Serb‟-Uncovering the roots of obstinate otherness in Serbia. Critique of Anthropology, Vol 19(1), 7-30. Ruggiero, V. & South, N. & Taylor, I. R. (1998). The new European criminology: crime and social order in Europe. Crime and social order in Europe. New York: Routledge.

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Ron, J. (2000). „„Territoriality and Plausible Deniability.‟‟ In Death Squads in Global Perspective: Murder with Deniability, edited by B. B. Campbell and A. B. Brenner, 287313. New York: St. Martin‟s Press Sandic, M. & Sandic, A. (2006). The Archetypes Echoed in the Collective Unconscious of the People. Group Analysis, 39, 411-420. Staub, E. (1999). The Roots of Evil: Social Conditions, Culture, Personality, and Basic Human Needs. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 3, 179-192. Suvajdţ ić, B. (2003). Hajduci i uskoci u narodnoj poeziji. Istorijske pretpostavke za nastanak i razvoj hajdučkog pokreta. Rastko Project.Internet library of Serb culture. http://www.rastko.rs/knjizevnost/usmena/bsuvajdzic-uskoci.html. Tomasic, D. (1948). Personality and Culture in Eastern European Politics. New York: G. Stewart Pub. United Nations Security Council Commission of experts Final Report of the United Nations Commission of Experts Established Pursuant to Security Council Resolution 780 (1992). http://www.ess.uwe.ac.uk/comexpert/ANX/. Virchow, F. (2007). Militia Movements. In Encyclopedia of Activism and Social Justice. http://sage-ereference.com/activism/Article_n560.html. Vivod, M. (2009). Living with dead bodies in your closet–Serbian ex-paramilitary reflections. Anthropology News, Vol 50, N.5, May, 13. Vivod, M. (2009). In the shadow of the Serbian paramilitary units. Unpublished. Vlajkovic. V. (2004). Vojna Tajna I Helsinksi Odbor za ljudska Prava. Beograd: Zagorac. Ţanić, I. (2007). Flag on the Mountain, A Political Anthropology of War in Croatia and Bosnia 1990-1995, London: Saqi Books.

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In: Crime: Causes, Types and Victims Editor: Alicia E. Hasselm, pp. 65-86

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Chapter 3

THE LINKING MECHANISMS BETWEEN PERSONAL VICTIMIZATION AND FEAR OF CRIME: TESTING A THEORY OF PSYCHOLOGICAL INCAPACITATION Helmut Hirtenlehner and Gorazd Meško University of Maribor, Ljubljana, Slovenia

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Abstract The article is concerned with an empirical examination of a cognitive theory of fear of crime that strives to bring contradictory results on the relationship between personal victimization and fear of crime into line. Its main idea is a process of compensation between two cognitions: the perception of personal risk and the perception of the seriousness of the consequences of a potential victimization. If personal victimization leads to an adjustment of exaggerated consequence expectations to a less painful reality – to a decrease of perceived negative impact – this could cancel out the fear-enhancing effects of an increase in perceived victimization risk. If no reassessment of the consequences associated with victimization takes place, personal victimization should generate more fear of crime, mediated only by higher perceived risk. Based on survey data from five successor states of the former Republic of Yugoslavia structural equation models are estimated. The results suggest rejecting many core assumptions of a “theory of psychological incapacitation”.

1. The Victimization Thesis and Its Empirical Foundations More than 40 years have now passed since criminology discovered the topical subject of the fear of victimization1. Empirical research on the sense of security among a population had its start in the US-American „Katzenbach Commission“ (otherwise known as the President‟s Commission on Law Enforcement and Administration of Justice enacted by President Johnson in the mid 1960's) which launched the first surveys on criminal victimization and fear of crime among US citizens (President‟s Commission 1967). From the very start, the conviction that fear of crime is the result of personal victimization was the primary 1

The terms „fear“, „anxiety“ and „feelings of insecurity“ will be used interchangeably in the following.

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inclination. Such an approach was the logical consequence of the hitherto undisputed opinion that the extent of fear of victimization among the citizens of a society is a trivial consequence of the crime rate in that society (Warr 2000, 452). As convincing such a model may appear to be at first sight, findings of empirical research on this point remain to this day inconsistent and contradictory. From a moderate stimulation of fear as a result of experiencing crime firsthand (e.g. Beck/Robertson 2003; Gale/Coupe 2005; Katz et al. 2003; Kanan/Pruitt 2002; Kury/Ferdinand 1998; Rountree 1998; Zarafonitou 2008) over the independence of fear levels of victimization background (e.g. Akers et al. 1987; Boers 1991; 1995; Denkers/Winkel 1998; Ferraro 1995; Hirtenlehner/Sautner 2007; Melde 2009; Mesko et al. 2008) up to fear reducing effects of personally experiencing crime (e.g. Maxfield 1984; Sparks et al. 1977) everything has been observed and reported. A point which does form a consensus is the fact that individual biographies of victimization have not been found to be a main explanatory factor of crime-related feelings of insecurity pervading a society2. The wide variety in findings is, naturally, a direct result of differences in theoretical specifications and empirical operationalizations of crime-related anxieties. Of particular concern is the fact that cognitive and affective elements of perceptions of insecurity – in other words perceived risk and emotional fears – are not consistently separated and, in some cases, even perceived threats to society by crime are employed as indicators of personal fear (Hale 1996)3. One key to understanding the effects of personal experiences of victimization may well be found in the differentiation between cognitive and affective aspects of perceptions of insecurity (Boers 2003; Ferraro/LaGrange 1987; Gabriel/Greve 2003; Hale 1996). The cognitive component is an individual‟s appraisal of risk, measured primarily as subjectively perceived probability of personally becoming the victim of crime. Risk assessment is an attempt to emphasize the cognitive-rational evaluation of one's own situation. The affective component marks the emotional concern pertaining to the threat of crime in one's own life environment. The latter is usually considered to be fear of crime in the strictest sense. Fear of victimization then designates “an emotional response of dread and anxiety to crime or symbols that a person associates with crime” (Ferraro 1995, 23). Victimization is consistently considered to be more closely related to risk appraisal than to emotional concern about crime (Boers 1991; Boers/Kurz 1997; Ferraro 1995; Giles-Sims 1984; Hirtenlehner/Sautner 2007; Melde 2009; Mesch 2000; Tseloni/Zarafonitou 2008). If experiences of victimization do exert an influence, then most likely on the specific risk assessment (for the same offense), this only for a limited period of time, before being forgotten or until the experience of insecurity is corrected by new experiences (BMI/BMJ 2006; Boers 2003; Frevel 1998). The connection to the affective component – to emotional fear of crime – appears to be significantly weaker. 2

Klaus Sessar (1990, 125 ff.) proposes an alternative interpretation of the occasionally reported victimization-fear correlation, based on psychological consistency effects. In a reversal of standard explanations, he presumes that the observations that victims report higher fear of crime are the result of a memory bias: Fearful persons will hold on more tightly to victimization experiences in their memory. 3 Wide recognition is today accorded a conceptualization by Klaus Boers (1991; 2003) which differentiates between social and personal attitudes towards crime. Whereas the former refer to the assessement of how much society is threatened by crime and what society should do to deal with crime, the latter focus on the perceived endangerment of the individual. Social attitudes towards crime should be of no further interest here. Personal attitudes are at the center of the present work.

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A promising approach to applying a system of order to these discordant findings, and thereby bringing a greater degree of clarity to the tangled relationship between individual experiences of victimization and fear of crime, was proposed by Frans Willem Winkel (1998) with his “theory of psychological incapacitation”. Winkel singles out the mediating role of two cognitive elements: the subjectively perceived probability of future victimization (perceived risk) and the anticipated consequences of a potential victimization (perceived impact). These two cognitions could very well neutralize one another in the wake of a victimization, which in effect is tantamount to rendering the stressor of having experienced a crime first hand harmless. It is necessary to study the interaction between risk assessment and consequence expectations to truly understand the differential effects that personal experiences of victimization can have on fear of crime. The aim of this study is to scrutinize Winkel‟s cognitively based victimization-fear theory empirically. Based on survey data collected in five of the successor states of the former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, an investigation was conducted to determine the capacity of the theory to integrate existing research findings and bring greater clarity to the complex relationship between experiences of victimization and fear of crime.

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2. A Cognitively Based Victimization-Fear Theory The reasons that findings pertaining to the victimization thesis have been so inconsistent up to this point can be found in a variety of circumstances: In addition to problems regarding the theoretical conceptualization of fear of crime and diverging operationalizations of the crucial constructs, one must also point out a frequent disregard for potential connecting links. The cognitive mechanisms which lie between experiences of victimization and crime-related feelings of insecurity are regularly accorded no attention whatsoever. But it is precisely these intermediate processes which may well be best suited to provide order to the inconsistent, at times even contradictory, findings seen so far. An impressive attempt to draw on mediating cognitive processes to explain the difficult relationship between experiences of victimization and emotional reactions was made by Frans Willem Winkel (1998) with his so-called “theory of psychological incapacitation”. Founded on cognitive theories of emotion which understand feelings as the resulting product of thoughts, interpretations and appraisals (Niedenthal et al. 2006), he developed a cognitively based victimization-fear theory. In this theory he coupled the formation of crime-related fears with two pre-existing appraisal processes: the assessment of subjective victimization risk and the assessment of the seriousness of the consequences associated with that risk. Fear of crime develops from the interplay of the estimated probability of becoming the victim of a crime in the future with the anticipated negative consequences of such a victimization. The intensity of fear is dependent both on the perceived likelihood of the crime and the severity of the expected consequences4. Personal experiences of victimization would bring about fear of crime if they generate either an increase in risk assessment or an intensification of anticipated 4

In a similar approach, Kreuter (2002, 25 ff.) understands fear of crime as a multiplicative product of the probability and costs of victimization. Killias (1991) developed a comprehensive, three element framework in which he derives fear of crime from the interplay of risk exposure, consequence expectations and perceived controllability.

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damages. “Thus, fear of crime is a conditional (and not an automatic) response, that will only emerge if these cognitive mediators are involved, one way or another” (Winkel 1998, 474). The characteristic feature of Winkel‟s “theory of psychological incapacitation” is revealed in the manner in which he applies the outlined model in attempting to explain why victimization frequently fails to raise fear levels among victims. Here he makes use of the concept of compensation. Although personal experiences of victimization regularly generate higher perceptions of subjective victimization risk, they simultaneously open the opportunity to adjust images of crime to reality. Crime-related horror scenarios, spread primarily through the media, create excessive consequence expectations which are rarely met by the damages inflicted in everyday real-world crimes (Surette 2007). Thus, actual victimization can lead persons to revise their image of what being a victim entails in that they learn that the depicted scenarios of unknown horrors are in fact gross exaggerations or that they find out that they are fully capable of coping with the experiences themselves (BMI/BMJ 2006, 514). This is equivalent to assuming that victimization experiences reduce levels of damages to be expected from crime. If individual victimization experiences do result in the adaptation of exaggerated consequence expectations to a less painful reality, this could compensate for the increase in fear brought about by higher risk assessment. The two processes could very well cancel each other out, which is equivalent to defusing the stressor “criminal victimization”, and could thus explain the lack of differences in fear found between victims and non-victims. Conversely, if there is in fact no reassessment of the expected consequences of victimization, personal experiences of victimization should, through increased risk assessment, also bring about an increased fear of crime.

Figure 1. Cognitive victimization – fear – model.

Why the victims of crime maintain a more optimistic assessment of the consequences of victimization than non-victims has been explained with reference to coping theories. In order to be able to restore their mental balance, victims actively engage in efforts to cope with the experience of crime. In addition to other techniques of neutralization (Agnew 1985), they

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draw on downward comparison processes to defuse the stressor “criminal victimization”. Downward comparison processes designate the attempt to play down the damages incurred on victims by comparing oneself with other individuals who have suffered harder hits by fate. According to the motto “If you are feeling bad, compare yourself with others who have it even worse!” downward comparison processes are used to improve one's own mental state (see also Winkel/Denkers 1995). Following Winkel, this style of coping does not remain without effect on perceived impact of crime: Taking advantage of downward comparison processes should result in reductions in consequence expectations. A belittlement of the consequences associated with crime thus appears to be a goal-oriented coping strategy, one which should help persons to overcome the psychological consequences of personal experiences of victimization. Taking a look at the research pertinent to cognitive victimization-fear theory, one quickly comes across a series of investigations which confirm a close relationship between risk assessment and fear of victimization. Several studies which have examined both risk assessment as well as fear of crime identify perceived risk of victimization to be a determining factor of an individual's level of fear (Boers 1991; Ferraro 1995; Giles-Sims 1984; Hirtenlehner 2008; Jackson 2004; LaGrange et al. 1992; Melde 2009; Mesch 2000; Smith/Torstensson 1997; Smith et al. 2001). Research on victimization thesis has shown repeatedly that personal victimization gives rise to an increase in perceived probability of becoming a victim of crime in the future (Boers 1995; Ferguson/Mindel 2007; Giles-Sims 1984; Ferraro 1995; Hirtenlehner/Sautner 2007; Kury/Ferdinand 1998; Lüdemann 2006; Melde 2009; Mesch 2000; Tseloni/Zarafonitou 2008). In contrast, it has only seldom been observed that victimization experience has a direct effect on crime-related fear. In many cases the effect is limited to risk assessment, in particular to the assessment of the risk of being exposed to the same type of crime again5 (Boers 2003; Frevel 1998; Hale 1996). While the role of risk perception has been, comparatively speaking, well researched, there have been only a small number of studies which take into account the damages associated with being the victim of a crime. So far, in this domain, Mark Warr has proven to be the primary investigator, both theoretically and empirically. He concentrates on the perceived seriousness of crime, referring directly to the anticipated damages resulting from victimization. Warr (1987; Warr/Stafford 1983) understands fear of crime as a multiplicative function of risk assessment and consequence expectations. The two constructs should be accorded equivalent degrees of influence in the generation of crime-related feelings of insecurity. Only when both variables exceed a specific threshold level (> 0) should fears about crime surface. This implies: Victimizations viewed as inevitable will only produce fear when they are associated with serious consequences. Also, very severe offenses which are associated with grave consequences will generate fear only when a certain probability of realization can be ascribed to it (Warr 1987, 41). In an alternative modeling approach, deviating from Winkel‟s perspective, Warr (1984; 1985) sees perceptions of the seriousness of an offense as moderators of the risk-fear relationship. The consequence expectations, from this perspective, shape the effect of perceived risk on fear of crime. If an act of crime is associated with serious damages, then perceived risk should exert a substantial effect on crime-related fears. If, in contrast, 5

Occasionally, individual vulnerabilities and coping skills are taken into account as moderators of the risk-fear relationship. For more details see Hirtenlehner (2008) and Killias/Clerici (2000).

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consequence expectations remain at rather low levels, then the degree of influence exerted by the anticipated probability of victimization should be rather modest. This interactive relationship was applied by Warr (1984) to explain the so-called victimization-fear paradox, according to which women and elderly persons who have lower chances of falling victim to crime, generally express higher levels of fear of crime than men and younger persons. A crucial role is ascribed to vulnerability at this junction: Due to their greater vulnerability, women and elderly persons view the consequences of potential acts of crime more pessimistically than men and younger persons. Based on survey data collected in Seattle (USA), Warr was able to confirm his considerations to a large extent6. In a survey conducted in the North-East of England, Jonathan Jackson (2004) was able to secure evidence to confirm that the anticipated consequences of victimization do not actually influence the frequency of crime-related feelings of insecurity, but rather their intensity. A linear structural equation model shows a standardized regression coefficient of .13 (p < .01) for the effect of consequence assessments on the degree of fear of crime. Winkel (1998) undertook a comprehensive examination of his theory. His analyses are based on data collected in a Dutch longitudinal study in which 400 victims of crime and 200 persons who had not been victims of crime completed seven waves of questionnaires. He was able to confirm a number of hypotheses derived from the “theory of psychological incapacitation”. “In particular our (..) analyses suggested that criminal victimization tends to elicit increased subjective victimization risk (..), together with a decrease in perceived negative impact associated with victimization (..). These upward and downward tendencies tend to neutralize each other, or to cancel each other out, resulting in the non-emergence of enhanced fear of crime due to victimization” (Winkel 1998, 481 f.). Both perceived impact and perceived risk exercise an influence on crime-related fear, however the former was found to be significantly more powerful than the latter in the Netherlands. No evidence was found for the existence of a negative link between consequence expectations and downward comparison processes: Between the two constructs no relationship conforming to theory could be observed.

3. Method 3.1. Database Our efforts to bring a bit of clarity to the difficult relationship between personal experiences of victimization and crime-related feelings of insecurity are based on survey data collected in five of the successor states of the former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The study was conducted in the respective capitals of each of these countries: Ljubljana (Slovenia); Zagreb (Croatia), Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina), Belgrade (Serbia) and Skopje (The Republic of Macedonia). A total of 400 persons each in Ljubljana, Sarajevo and Belgrade participated in the study, in Skopje 394 persons were surveyed and in Zagreb 379 persons. Overall, a database containing responses from a total of 1,973 persons was available to us. 6

The multiplicative model and the risk sensitivity model were understood by Warr (1985, 242) to be very closely related. He uses the former more for the analysis of the potentials of various crime types to generate fear and the latter for the study of socio-demographic differences in the level of fear.

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The selection of respondents was conducted according to the principles of multi-stage random sampling. In all five cities the sampling process consisted of three steps. First the metropolitan area was divided into territorial units from which the investigative units were randomly selected. Within the individual territorial units chosen for investigation, households were determined using the random route selection process. The individual to be surveyed in a selected household was identified with the date of birth method: The person interviewed was the person, above 18 years of age, who was next in line to celebrate his/her birthday. The surveys were conducted in March, 2009 in the form of face-to-face interviews. These interviews were administered by criminology students in the latter stages of their university studies. Table 1 provides an overview of the composition of the respondents. Table 1. Socio-demographic profile of the respondents

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Age 18 – 29 years 30 – 39 years 40 – 49 years 50 – 59 years 60 – 69 years 70 years and older Gender Male Female Tertiary educational degree no yes

Ljubljana (n = 400)

Zagreb (n = 379)

Sarajevo (n = 400)

Belgrade (n = 400)

Skopje (n = 394)

27 % 16 % 12 % 12 % 15 % 18 %

23 % 16 % 15 % 13 % 17 % 16 %

41 % 9% 14 % 13 % 12 % 11 %

23 % 13 % 14 % 19 % 17 % 14 %

34 % 10 % 12 % 16 % 14 % 14 %

39 % 61 %

42 % 58 %

51 % 49 %

41 % 59 %

51 % 49 %

49 % 51 %

48 % 52 %

53 % 47 %

48 % 52 %

50 % 50 %

3.2. Measuring Instruments Victimization: In order to measure personal victimization, the participants were presented with a list of various types of crimes and harassments. For each type of crime or harassment they were to indicate whether they had been affected by such a violation over the course of the last 12 months7. Table 2 contains the types of infringements presented to the respondents and the proportion of persons who reported they had been a victim of this crime within the period of time indicated. This table makes immediately apparent that serious crimes seldom 7

Concerning the measurement techniques commonly applied for assessing personal victimization background in international research it has often been criticized that the period of time for which the experiences of victimization are observed is either too long or too short (Sessar 1990). The argument that the observation period is too short implies the accusation that persons whose experiences of victimization lie further in the past would be, statistically, categorized into the group of non-victims and thus, potential differences in feelings of security will be underestimated. However, should the observation period chosen be too long, then fear effects may already have become mute by the time of the survey, which would also result in a levelling out in fear differences. Here we follow the assumption that with increasing temporal distance to a crime, the victim has had more and more time to restore its psychological balance and, as a result, the intensity of fear decreases (Frevel 1998, 46). A low sustainability of the fear reaction suggests choosing a limited window of time in determining victimization background.

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occur and the majority of victims identified are concentrated among the types of crimes considered to be minor offenses (verbal abuse, theft, vehicular damage and fraud). Subsequently, an index variable was created which indicated whether the respondent had fallen victim to at least one of the infringements listed above. This index variable was coded 1 if the survey participant had been affected by at least one type of crime or harassment in the last twelve months. It was coded 0 if no victimization had been reported over the course of this period.

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Table 2. Personal victimization experiences Within the past twelve months have you experienced any of the following: Have you been accosted, threatened or abused by other persons? Has something been stolen from you? Has your automobile been broken into or intentionally damaged? Were you misled or intentionally deceived which caused you to suffer a financial loss as a consequence? Has your house or apartment been broken into? Has someone taken something from you under threat or utilization of bodily harm? Have you been struck and injured by someone? Have you been sexually harassed? Have you been sexually assaulted? Have you been subjected to other criminal acts? Percentage of respondents affected by any of these actions

Ljubljana

Zagreb

Sarajevo

Belgrade

Skopje

25 %

25 %

32 %

38%

25 %

14 %

13 %

22 %

23 %

18 %

13 %

14 %

20 %

22 %

17 %

11 %

17 %

17 %

23 %

16 %

3%

1%

11 %

3%

7%

3%

3%

7%

7%

6%

3%

1%

6%

4%

3%

2% 1%

2% 1%

2% 1%

2% 1%

1% 1%

3%

3%

7%

6%

4%

43 %

48 %

58 %

64 %

53 %

Fear of crime: The emotional reaction to crime was measured as worry concerning particular types of crime. The respondents were requested to indicate, along a five-point scale, how much they worry about each of the offenses listed in Table 3. Response options ranged from “very worried” (5) to “not at all worried” (1). Risk assessment: In order to capture the perceived probability of victimization, the respondents were asked to indicate how likely they thought it would be for them to become a victim, in reference to a series of proposed crimes, over the course of the next twelve months. The survey participants were presented with five response categories along a scale ranging from “very likely” (5) to “not at all likely” (1). Consequence expectations: The operationalization of the expected consequences of falling victim to a crime relies on Winkel (1998, 478). The respondents were asked to indicate how severe the consequences of various types of criminal acts would be – always working under the assumption that they were themselves the victim of the crime in question. The

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subjective severity of the anticipated consequences was to be assessed along a five-point scale with the poles “very severe” (5) and “not severe” (1). Downward comparison processes: The degree to which victims make use of downward comparison processes, in coping with the psychological consequences of personal victimization, was measured against the subject's most recent experience of victimization. Winkel‟s (1998, 478) three original items determined to measure the use of downward comparison processes were translated into the participants' mother languages. Whether the respondents agree or disagree with the statements was assessed along a five-step rating scale ranging from “absolutely agree” (5) to “not at all agree” (1). Table 3. Items measuring fear of crime (corrected item-total correlations). Variable V15 V16 V17 V18 V19

Robbery Financial fraud Assault Theft Burglary Cronbach‟s 

Ljubljana .73 .71 .79 .75 .70 .89

Zagreb .76 .72 .78 .77 .69 .90

Sarajevo .74 .68 .69 .71 .53 .85

Belgrade .68 .63 .72 .74 .65 .86

Skopje .73 .66 .76 .75 .67 .88

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Table 4. Items measuring perceived risk (corrected item-total correlations). Variable V22 V23 V24 V25 V26

Robbery Financial fraud Assault Theft Burglary Cronbach‟s 

Ljubljana .84 .78 .83 .83 .75 .93

Zagreb .72 .59 .70 .70 .51 .84

Sarajevo .72 .63 .54 .73 .62 .84

Belgrade .69 .64 .50 .74 .59 .83

Skopje .73 .57 .65 .75 .67 .86

Table 5. Items measuring perceived impact (corrected item-total correlations). Variable V28 V29 V30 V31 V32

Robbery Financial fraud Assault Theft Burglary Cronbach‟s 

Ljubljana .74 .71 .67 .77 .61 .87

Zagreb .74 .70 .71 .74 .61 .87

Sarajevo .76 .68 .63 .77 .61 .87

Belgrade .72 .66 .61 .75 .53 .85

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Skopje .76 .71 .75 .77 .63 .89

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Helmut Hirtenlehner and Gorazd Meško Table 6. Items measuring downward comparison processes (corrected item-total correlations)

Item In comparison with other victims, I got off well. Sometimes I think that it could have been worse. In comparison to others I think I am coping rather well. Cronbach‟s 

Ljubljana .24

Zagreb .37

Sarajevo .55

Belgrade .55

Skopje .56

.12

.47

.33

.63

.37

.24

.32

.26

.47

.61

.35

.58

.56

.72

.69

In contrast to the other measurement instruments applied here, the psychometric properties of the scale developed to capture the utilization of downward comparison processes are not quite convincing. The internal consistency of the scale turned out to be insufficient in the majority of the cities (Ljubljana, Sarajevo, Zagreb). The instrument proved to be particularly unsatisfactory in Ljubljana: Here the item-remainder correlations for the individual items provided little indication of homogeneity. Should downward comparison processes not be able to demonstrate the expected relationships to other elements of the “theory of psychological incapacitation”, this may well be the direct result of an unsuccessful measurement of this cognitive coping strategy. In a similar line of reasoning, Winkel (1998, 482) argues that he doubts whether the three items he formulated can reflect “the full range of (..) forms such comparisons may take”.

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3.3. Analytic Strategy Data analysis was primarily conducted with the application of structural equation models (Byrne 2006; Kline 2005). To this end, it was first necessary to translate Winkel‟s considerations into a system of hypotheses. Five hypotheses seem to fit the bill: H1: Personal experiences of victimization lead to an increase in the perceived probability of victimization. H2: An increasing risk assessment raises fear of crime. H3: Personal experiences of victimization lead to a decrease in the negative consequences associated with crime. H4: Sinking consequence expectations reduce fear of crime. H5: The more intensively victims of crime make use of downward comparison processes, the more optimistic their appraisals of the consequences associated with crime will be.

A full combination of the first four hypotheses would result in the analytic model depicted in Figure 2. It is not necessary to repeat the individually specified relationships at this point, these can be conclusively determined from the hypotheses formulated above. Separate mention must however be made of two points: First, it must be maintained that the causal model directing this investigation does not assume any additional direct effects of victimization background on crime-related fear. Here it is presumed that, aside from cognitive processes directed towards risk assessment and consequence expectations, no other connections exist between experiences of victimization and fear of crime. In other words, any

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correlation between victimization background and feeling of security is fully attributable to changes in perceived risk or perceived impact. In order to determine whether such an assumption can be justified, the depicted model is expanded, in a second step, to incorporate a direct victimization-fear effect. If the introduction of such an effect enables a significant improvement in model fit, the concept of psychological incapacitation must be put to question. VICTIM

E28 E29 E30 E31

E32

1 1 1 1 1

E2

V28 V29 V30 V31 V32

1

1

IMPACT E1 1

V22 1

RISK

V23 V24 V25 V26

1 1 1 1 1

E22 E23 E24 E25 E26

E3

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1

FEAR

1

V15 1

E15

V16 1

E16

V17 1

E17

V18 1

E18

V19 1

E19

Figure 2. Theoretical model.

As to the other point, the additive enchainment of the linking mechanisms must be clarified. Winkel (1998, 477) explicitly specifies the assessment of the probability of victimization and the appraisal of the consequences associated with victimization to be contrary but independent processes, which hold the potential for mutual compensation. In keeping with this line of reasoning, in his own examination of his theory, he tested for the main effects of risk assessment and consequence expectation on fear of crime, without making allowance for an interactive link between the two8. Thus, when modeling strategy is chosen which understands perceived risk and perceived impact as influential factors which

8

A multiplicative linkage of risk assessment and consequence expectations to interactive effects would correspond to Warr's sensitivity to risk approach (1984; 1985), which is not subject of this investigation.

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work independently from one another, then this is in exact accordance with the modeling approach recommended by the architect of the “theory of psychological incapacitation”. All structural equation models were calculated using EQS 6.1. (Bentler 2006). As our data are comprised of five independent samples, stacked models (Byrne 2006, 223 ff.; Kline 2005, 289 ff.) were estimated. Stacked modeling means that the model is fitted simultaneously across the five samples, allowing the factor loadings and regression coefficients to vary across cities, while providing one set of parameters for an assessment of the fit of the entire 5-city model to the data. The robust variant of the maximum likelihood procedure was used for model estimation (Bentler 2006)9. Correlated measurement errors were not introduced into the analysis. In that data on how persons cope with acts of crime are only available for actual victims of crime, an analysis of the relationship between consequence expectations and downward comparison processes could not be integrated into the structural equation model depicted above. In order to test hypothesis 5, conventional correlation analysis was applied.

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4. Results Before the relationship structure postulated by Winkel‟s theory can be subjected to a detailed examination, cursory attention should be directed towards the correlational link between experiences of victimization and fear of crime. The compensation process which is found at the center of the theory corresponds with the expectation of a null correlation between victimization background and fear of crime. Table 7 shows that this expectation is supported by the data. For all five cities, the product moment correlation coefficients between victim status and the total score10 of the five fear items were calculated. Not a single correlation coefficient could hold up to a significance test. In all five cities, respondents with experiences of victimization reported the same degree of crime-related fear as persons who had not fallen victim to an act of crime. Table 7. Association between victimization experience and fear of crime Ljubljana Zagreb Sarajevo Belgrade Skopje

Product Moment Correlation Coefficient .03 -.01 -.10 .06 .09

*** ….. p  .001; ** ….. p  .01; * ….. p  .05

A qualitatively demanding examination of the “theory of psychological incapacitation” cannot rely merely on bivariate analyses. The next step, then, is to test the detailed relationships assumed to exist between experiences of victimization, perceived probabilities 9

Robust maximum likelihood estimations are indicated when the observed variables included in a model are not able to fulfil the normal distribution assumption. 10 For simple correlation analyses the indicators applied in the measurement of a latent variable were added up to form a summative index.

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of victimization, perceived seriousness of the consequences of victimization and fear of crime directly. A comprehensive examination of the network of relationships postulated by the theory can transpire under the application of linear structural equation models (Byrne 2006; Kline 2005). Such models make it possible to test hypotheses 1 through 4 simultaneously. Working under the assumption that a theory is to be rejected should a structural equation model derived from it show to have a poor fit to the data, then the results of our multiplegroup analyses are well suited to provide an ambivalent assessment of a “theory of psychological incapacitation” (Figure 3). The goodness-of-fit statistics used to assess overall fit of the multiple-sample model indicate a moderate compatibility of the model with the data, one which fluctuates in the gray area between acceptance and rejection11. Neither the goodness-of-fit index nor the adjusted-goodness-of-fit index were able to attain the acceptance threshold of .90. The ratio between 2 and degrees of freedom is slightly above the upper limit of 3. The 2 test shows significant deviations of the empirical and the reproduced covariance structures, but due to its dependency on sample size this does not necessarily suggest a poor model fit. The Comparative Fit Index falls above the lower limit of .90 originally set by Bentler, but below the minimum value of .95 which was later deemed appropriate. The Root Mean Square Error of Approximation points to a satisfactory consistency with the data, although its value falls only slightly below the upper limit of .08. All in all, the fit statistics applied to assess the quality of the model as a whole do not permit one to make a cut and dry decision either for or against the postulated model. With respect to the specified measurement models it must be noted that all the items used are acceptable indicators of the theoretical concepts they are meant to depict. All the items load significantly and at least with .54 on “their” factor12. In directing one's attention to the structural part of the model (to the relationships between the latent constructs), one comes up with a mixed bag of results (Figure 3). The relationships, postulated by the core of the structural model, between personal victimization, risk assessment, consequence expectations and fear of crime are merely accorded a partial confirmation. As expected, the degree of fear of crime sharply depends on the consequences associated with crime (hypothesis 4). In all five cities, increases in consequence expectations result in an increase in fear. The effect sizes (about .50) can be described as impressive. The subjectively perceived probabilities of victimization play a secondary role in comparison with consequence assessments (hypothesis 2). Although increases in risk assessment do bring about increases in fear for four of the five cities examined, the effect sizes (generally under .20) turn out to be significantly lower than those found for damage expectations. The fact that the intensity of fear of crime is more closely linked to the anticipated consequences of a victimization than to the estimated probability of such an incident, corresponds with the findings obtained by Winkel (1998) himself.

11

The threshold values used in assessing goodness-of-fit are taken from Byrne (2006, 94 ff.) and SchermellehEngel et al. (2003, 31 ff.). 12 CRmin = 9.52

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2 = 1573.26; df = 505; p = .000; 2/df = 3.12; GFI = .88; AGFI = .84; CFI = .91; RMSEA = .07

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Figure 3. Empirical structural equation model (only structural part, standardized coefficients).

Evidence for the phenomenon of compensation suggested by Winkel could, in comparison, not be detected. That personal experiences of victimization result in a raised awareness of risk (hypothesis 1) could only be demonstrated in two cities, Zagreb and Belgrade. In Ljubljana, Sarajevo and Skopje victims of crime could not be systematically differentiated from persons who have been spared such experiences with regard to how they assess their probabilities of falling victim to crime in the future. Indications of a reduction in expectations of damages as a consequence of falling victim to crime (hypothesis 3) could not be observed in any of the five cities. Consequence assessments prove to be immune against victimization status. Persons who had been victims of crime attach neither more severe nor more moderate consequences to criminal events than persons who had not endured criminal offenses. If, however, personal victimization does not result in a downward correction of the consequences associated with crime, and since victimization in many cases also does not raise risk assessment, then there can be no talk of compensation. The central mechanism of a “theory of psychological incapacitation” is thus shaken to the foundations. With regard to the individual crimes included (robbery, fraud, theft, assault and burglary), the conventional correlation analyses conducted here (Appendices 1 & 2) provide a full and complete confirmation of the insights obtained with the structural equation model. In order to examine the relationships postulated in hypotheses 1 through 4, a total of 25 product moment correlation coefficients (5 crimes x 5 cities) were calculated. Should one fall victim to a particular type of crime, in 15 of 25 cases risk assessment for this type of crime increases. Consequence expectations for the same type of crime, on the other hand, remain stable: Only 6 out of 25 correlations between victim status and damage expectations proved to be significant. Four of these even turned out to be in the wrong direction, indicating higher damage expectations following victimization. Although crime-specific fears are shaped by

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relevant risk assessments (23 significant correlations)13 and consequence expectations (25 significant correlations) thus no compensation can take place. In addition, multiple linear regression analyses were calculated (Appendix 3), in which the crime-specific feeling of security was modeled as an outcome of crime-specific risk assessment and consequence expectations. The results here show once again that the anticipated consequences of victimization exert a greater amount of influence on one's level of fear than the estimated probabilities of victimization. The effects of consequence expectations surpass those of risk assessment, on average, by a factor of between two and three14. The independence of consequence expectations from victim status raises doubt concerning the effectiveness of downward comparison processes (hypothesis 5), because this explicitly suggests an absence of coping mechanisms that bring about reduced damage expectations. By placing the tendency of victims of crime to make use of downward comparison processes in relationship with the consequences expected to result from a (re)victimization, one is confronted with findings contrary to theoretical expectations. The product moment correlation coefficients15, calculated to determine the relationship between the consequence expectations and the “downward comparison scores” among victims point, in four of the five cities, towards the independence of the two constructs (Table 8). In Ljubljana even a positive relationship could be isolated: Victims of crimes who, in order to cope with the events they experienced, rely on downward comparison processes expect more severe consequences of victimization than persons who do not engage in such comparison behaviors16. A connection of this type stands in direct contrast with the relationship postulated by the “theory of psychological incapacitation”. Hypothesis 5 must therefore be rejected.

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Table 8. Association between perceived impact and downward comparison scores Ljubljana Zagreb Sarajevo Belgrade Skopje

Product Moment Correlation Coefficient .19* .07 -.04 .09 -.08

*** ….. p  .001; ** ….. p  .01; * ….. p  .05

Above and beyond the indirect lines of connection sketched out above, one is hard pressed to find signs of further connections between experiences of victimization and fear of 13

In terms of their signs the two correlation coefficients that were not significant also correspond to the theoretical expectations. 14 20 of the 25 risk-fear regression coefficients and all 25 of the consequence-fear regression coefficients prove to be significant with p .05. 15 The product moment correlation coefficients were calculated from the total scores of the empirical indicators of the latent constructs. 16 The socio-demographic variables applied in the description of the survey population (Table 1) can partially explain the contra-theoretical correlation isolated in the Ljubljana sample. If one controls for age, gender and degree of education among the victims surveyed, the corresponding partial correlation coefficient falls to insignificant .17 (p = .09).

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crime. Expanding the model depicted in Figure 2 by an additional direct effect of victimization background on fear of crime leads to a significant improvement in model fit (2 = 12.25; d.f. = 5; p < .05)17, but the gain in goodness-of-fit can be traced back to one contra-theoretical observation, made exclusively in Sarajevo. Regardless of perceived probability of victimization and perceived seriousness of the consequences of crime, victims in Sarajevo report lower degrees of fear of crime than non-victims (Beta = -.12; C.R. = -2.52). In the remaining four cities the corresponding standardized regression coefficients fluctuated between -.03 and +.08 and were altogether not able to withstand significance testing (C.R.  1.59).

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Conclusions The objective of the present work was to examine the “theory of psychological incapacitation”, as formulated by Frans Willem Winkel (1998), on the basis of survey data collected in the capital cities of five of the successor states of the former Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The theory is a cognitively based victimization-fear theory which attempts to place order over the conflicting findings concerning the influence that personal victimization has on fear of crime by introducing two mediating cognitive processes: the subjectively perceived probability of victimization and the anticipated damages associated with an act of crime. At the center of argumentation is the phenomenon of compensation: The positive effect experiences of victimization have on risk assessment is balanced out by the negative impact of victimization on the perceived seriousness of the consequences of crime. Since these two effects tend to cancel each other out, many studies are faced with the nonemergence of differences in fear between victims and non-victims. In a synopsis of this investigation, the findings presented here indicate a rejection of the “theory of psychological incapacitation”. The theory proved to be only partially compatible with the data. Measured against the goodness-of-fit of a stacked structural equation model fitted simultaneously to the five samples, the theory can only be judged to be ambivalent at best. The postulated relationships between experiences of victimization, risk assessment, consequence expectations, and fear of crime can only be partially confirmed. The only facet which could be consistently demonstrated is that the level of fear of crime is dependent on both perceived probability of victimization as well as perceived impact of a potential victimization. As already shown by Winkel himself (1998) crime-related fears are more strongly shaped by consequence assessment than by risk appraisal. It was only occasionally observed that personal victimization raises risk assessment. Two of the five covariance structures in our stacked structural equation model and 15 out of 25 crime-specific correlation coefficients support this assumption. In this case it turns out that: Victimization arouses doubt concerning one's state of security which, via raised anticipation of risk, also produces a greater fear of crime. On the bottom line, the connection running from experiences of victimization over perceived probabilities of victimization to fear of crime remains modest. In the structural equation model, the related indirect effect of personal 17

If two hierarchical models are estimated with the same data – that is only the relationship structure between the variables varies, but not the set of included variables – then a 2 difference test can be used to determine whether the introduction of an additional effect brings a significant improvement in model fit. Error probabilities below .05 denote a significant model improvement (Kline 2005, 146 f.).

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experiences of victimization on fear of crime – which can be calculated as the product of the two direct effects involved18 (Kline 2005, 128 ff.) – amounts to .02 for Zagreb and .02 as well for Belgrade. Corresponding calculations with respect to the individual types of crime produce similar results. These findings confirm the widely held view that personal victimization can have some effect on assessments of the probability of falling victim to acts of crime in the future, but in total it can only bring about a slight increase in fear of crime (BMI/BMJ 2006; Boers 2003; Frevel 1998; Hale 1996; Hirtenlehner/Sautner 2007). Put to question was a theory on the neutralization of the stressor “personal victimization” above all due to the lack of any sort of evidence of compensation. Victims of crime do not expect, in comparison with persons who have remained spared this experience, lower levels of damages to result from crime. Only in isolated, exceptional cases, might victims of crime reduce their levels of expected damages; there is no indication for a systematic downward correction of excessive consequence expectations to a less painful reality. Consistent with the lack of evidence of a negative effect of personal experiences of victimization on consequence expectations, there is also no proof to confirm the protective effects of downward comparison processes – a central element of Winkel‟s theory. Comparison processes in a downward direction – that is comparisons with persons who have been hit harder by fate than oneself – should, according to theory, represent a psychological coping strategy which, in the wake of victimization, would enable a correction of damage assessments associated with crimes. This assumption is not supported by the data collected for this study. In contrast to expectations, the tendency to make use of downward comparison processes appeared to be uncorrelated with the perceived negative impact of crime. In a survey conducted by Winkel (1998) himself in the Netherlands, theoretical relationships between downward comparison processes and consequence expectations could also not be confirmed. In summation, serious doubt must be accorded the protective properties of such a coping strategy. The reasons behind the failure of downward comparison processes to provide a protective effect cannot be precisely determined at this stage. On the one hand, there are problems with the measurement instrument being used. The operationalization used here to capture social downward comparison processes is not completely convincing. Questionable, above all, is whether the indicators applied can guarantee a comprehensive depiction of this coping style in all of its facets. On the other hand, one may speculate that alternative patterns of interpretation of victimization may be dominant. Perhaps a sustainable correction in consequence expectations is impeded by grasps towards an alternative interpretation scheme along the lines of “limited fortune for everybody”: A person attributes the low level of damages incurred from a crime, in comparison with their original fears, to sheer good luck, but at the same time continues under the assumption that the quota of good luck each person has access to is limited. In other words, this means tracing lower harm than expected to pure luck, at the same time assuming that the quantum of one‟s fortune is exhaustible. Thus, potential victimizations in the future can retain their threatening character. Further research in this area should be explicitly encouraged. From a methodological perspective, the significance of the present study is somewhat dampened by the cross-sectional design of the research. Apart from the downward 18

In calculating indirect effects, the intermediate direct effects are to be multiplied. This yields the following calculation formats: Zagreb: (.17 x .14) = .02; Belgrade: (.20 x .11) = .02.

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comparison processes, we harbor little doubt concerning the operationalization of the constructs observed. The measurements of fear of victimization, risk assessment, and consequence expectations are based on current instruments which have been tried and tested on a number of occasions19. The same applies to the assessment of victim status. Concern, however, must be raised regarding the collection of predictors and target variables at the same point in time. Consequently, it is impossible to rule out that we fail to notice short-term, temporarily confined alterations in consequence assessments following victimization, nor can causality, in its strictest sense, be determined. The borderline compatibility of the structural equation model with the data could, in principle, also be due to the fact that the functional relationships were specified inappropriately20. Following the tradition of Mark Warr (Warr/Stafford 1983), a multiplicative linkage of risk assessment and consequence expectations in the production of crime-related feelings of insecurity would call for a log transformation of the three constructs. If risk appraisal and damage expectations only produce fear of crime when exceeding specific minimum values, then threshold models must be formulated. Such modifications to the model structure are basically conceivable, but they would no longer reflect the hypotheses developed by Winkel and leave the conceptual framework of his theory. The pattern of relationships between victimization background, risk assessment, consequence expectations and fear of crime specified here depicts the effect model postulated by the “theory of psychological incapacitation” most directly. Model transformations should only be undertaken in the sense of a theoretical expansion, but are strongly encouraged.

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APPENDIX 1. CORRELATIONS OF VICTIMISATION WITH CRIMESPECIFIC RISK APPRAISAL AND CONSEQUENCE EXPECTATIONS (PRODUCT MOMENT CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS) Ljubljana Crime type Robbery Fraud Assault Theft Burglary

Zagreb

Sarajevo

Belgrade

Skopje

Risk

Impact

Risk

Impact

Risk

Impact

Risk

Impact

Risk

Impact

.14** .09 .07 .10* .07

.15** .12* -.10* .07 -.02

.03 .19*** .09 .15** -.02

.01 .00 -.00 -.13* .06

.05 .17*** .12* .10* .20***

.03 .07 -.10 -.01 -.02

.09 .26*** .08 .21*** .13**

.05 -.01 .07 .02 .03

.09 .16*** .17*** .15** .13*

.05 .04 -.06 .13* .13*

*** ….. p  .001; ** ….. p  .01; * ….. p  .05

19

Since consequence expectations have not yet attained the status accorded the other two constructs in the literature, one can only speak of „multiple testing“ here. 20 An artificial improvement in model fit by introducing correlated error terms is rejected on the basis that this would encourage an atheoretical model-fitting. Such an approach would, however, do nothing to change the substance of the relationships between the theoretical concepts.

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APPENDIX 2: CORRELATIONS OF FEAR OF CRIME WITH CRIMESPECIFIC RISK APPRAISAL AND CONSEQUENCE EXPECTATIONS (PRODUCT MOMENT CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS) Crime type Robbery Fraud Assault Theft Burglary

Ljubljana Risk Impact .27*** .37*** .31*** .47*** .19*** .40*** .24*** .47*** .26*** .50***

Zagreb Risk Impact .13** .37*** .23*** .41*** .18*** .37*** .27*** .47*** .21*** .42***

Sarajevo Risk Impact .25*** .40*** .28*** .46*** .13** .34*** .09 .44*** .12* .34***

Belgrade Risk Impact .21*** .28*** .17*** .33*** .08 .36*** .19*** .40*** .13* .36***

Skopje Risk Impact .31*** .42*** .24*** .37*** .18*** .40*** .27*** .42*** .26*** .37***

*** ….. p  .001; ** ….. p  .01; * ….. p  .05

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APPENDIX 3. RESULTS OF MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSES OF FEAR OF CRIME ON CRIME-SPECIFIC RISK APPRAISAL AND CONSEQUENCE EXPECTATIONS (STANDARDIZED REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS) Ljubljana Robbery Perceived risk .17*** Perceived impact .31*** Fraud Perceived risk .18*** Perceived impact .42*** Assault Perceived risk .11* Perceived impact .38*** Theft Perceived risk .10* Perceived impact .44*** Burglary Perceived risk .16*** Perceived impact .46*** *** ….. p  .001; ** ….. p  .01; * ….. p  .05

Zagreb

Sarajevo

Belgrade

Skopje

.06 .35***

.16*** .36***

.15** .25***

.24*** .38***

.16*** .38***

.18*** .42***

.10* .31***

.21*** .33***

13** .35***

.10* .34***

.05 .35***

.15** .38***

.17*** .43***

-.01 .44***

.11* .38***

.16*** .37***

.12** .39***

.04 .33***

.05 .35***

.19*** .33***

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Bentler, P. (2006). EQS 6 Structural Equations Program Manual. Encino: Multivariate Software Inc. BMI & BMJ (2006). Zweiter Periodischer Sicherheitsbericht. Paderborn: Bonifatius. Boers, K. (1991). Kriminalitätsfurcht. Über den Entstehungszusammenhang und die Folgen eines sozialen Problems. Pfaffenweiler: Centauraus. Boers, K. (1995). Kriminalitätseinstellungen und Opfererfahrungen, In: G. Kaiser, & J. M. Jehle, (eds.), Kriminologische Opferforschung. Neue Perspektiven und Erkenntnisse. Teilband 2. Verbrechensfurcht und Opferwerdung – Individualopfer und Verarbeitung von Opfererfahrungen. Heidelberg: Kriminalistik Verlag. 3-36. Boers, K. (2003). Fear of Violent Crime, in: W. Heitmeyer & J. Hagan (eds.), International Handbook of Violence Research. Dordrecht: Kluwer. 1131-1150. Boers, K. & Kurz, P. (1997). Kriminalitätseinstellungen, soziale Milieus und sozialer Umbruch, In: K., Boers, G. Gutsche, & K. Sessar, (eds.), Sozialer Umbruch und Kriminalität in Deutschland. Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag., 187-253. Bortz, J. & Döring, N. (2002). Forschungsmethoden und Evaluation. Berlin: Springer. Byrne, B. M. (2006). Structural Equation Modeling with EQS. Basic Concepts, Applications, and Programming. Mahwah: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Denkers, A. & Winkel, F. W. (1998). Crime Victims Well-Being and Fear in a Prospective and Longitudinal Study. International Review of Victimology, 5, 141-162. Ferguson, K. & Mindel, C. (2007). Modeling Fear of Crime in Dallas Neighborhoods: A Test of Social Capital Theory. Crime and Delinquency, 53, 322-349. Ferraro, K. (1995). Fear of Crime. Interpreting Victimization Risk. New York: SUNY Press. Ferraro, K. & LaGrange, R. (1987). The Measurement of Fear of Crime. Sociological Inquiry 57, 70-101. Frevel, B. (1998). Wer hat Angst vor‟m bösen Mann? Ein Studienbuch über Sicherheit und Sicherheitsempfinden. Baden-Baden: Nomos. Frevel, B. (1999). Kriminalität. Gefährdung der Inneren Sicherheit? Opladen: Leske und Budrich. Gabriel, U. & Greve, W. (2003). The Psychology of Fear of Crime. Conceptual and Methodological Perspectives. British Journal of Criminology, 43, 600-614. Gale, J. A. & Coupe, T. (2005). The Behavioural, Emotional and Psychological Effects of Street Robbery on Victims. International Review of Victimology, 12, 1-22. Giles-Sims, J. (1984). A Multivariate Analysis of Perceived Likelihood of Victimization and Degree of Worry about Crime among Older People. Victimology, 9, 222-233. Hale, C. (1996). Fear of Crime: A Review of the Literature. International Review of Victimology, 4, 79-150. Hirtenlehner, H. (2008). Vulnerability – Mediating the Perceived Risk – Fear of Victimization–Linkage? Testing a Transactional Theory of Fear of Crime Using Data from Austria, in: H. Kury (ed.), Fear of Crime – Punitivity. New Developments in Theory and Research. Bochum: Brockmeyer., 107-126. Hirtenlehner, H. & Sautner, L. (2007). Wider die Viktimisierungsthese. Kann der Strafrechtszweck der Restoration auf eine höhere Verbrechensfurcht von Kriminalitätsopfern gestützt werden? JSt, 5, 109-117. Jackson, J. (2004). Experience and Expression. Social and Cultural Significance in the Fear of Crime. British Journal of Criminology, 44, 946-966.

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Jackson, J. (2005). Validating New Measures of the Fear of Crime. International Journal of Social Research Methodology, 8, 297-315. Jowell, R., Roberts, C., Fitzgerald, R. & Eva, G. (2007). Measuring Attitudes CrossNationally. Lessons from the European Social Survey. London: Sage. Kanan, J & Pruitt M. (2002). Modeling Fear of Crime and Perceived Victimization Risk: The (in)Significance of Neighborhood Integration. Sociological Inquiry, 72, 527-548. Katz, C., Webb, V. & Armstrong, T. (2003). Fear of Gangs: A Test of Alternative Theoretical Models. Justice Quarterly, 20, 95-130. Killias, M. (1991). Vulnerability and Fear of Crime, In: G., Kaiser, H. Kury, & H. J. Albrecht, (eds.), Victims and Criminal Justice. Band 1. Freiburg: MPI., 617-635. Killias, M. & Clerici, C. (2000). Different Measures of Vulnerability in their Relation to Different Dimensions of Fear of Crime. British Journal of Criminology, 40, 437-450. Kline, R. (2005). Principles and Practice of Structural Equation Modeling. New York: Guilford. Kreuter, F. (2002). Kriminalitätsfurcht: Messung und methodische Probleme. Opladen: Leske & Budrich. Kury, H. & Ferdinand, T. (1998). The Victim‟s Experience and Fear of Crime. International Review of Victimology, 5, 93-140. LaGrange, R. L., Ferraro, K. L. & Supancic, M. (1992). Perceived Risk and Fear of Crime: Role of Social and Physical Incivilities. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 29, 311-334. Lüdemann, C. (2006). Kriminalitätsfurcht im urbanen Raum. Eine Mehrebenenanalyse zu individuellen und sozialräumlichen Determinanten verschiedener Dimensionen von Kriminalitätsfurcht., KZfSS 58, 285-306. Maxfield, M. G. (1984). Fear of Crime in England and Wales. London: Home Office. Melde, C. (2009). Lifestyle, Rational Choice, and Adolescent Fear: A Test of a RiskAssessment Framework. Criminology, 47, 781-812. Mesch, G. S. (2000). Perceptions of Risk, Lifestyle Activities, and Fear of Crime. Deviant Behavior, 21, 47-62. Mesko, G., Kovko-Vukadin, I. & Muratbegovic, E. (2008). Social-Demographic and SocialPsychological Perspectives of Fear of Crime in Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, in: H. Kury (ed.), Fear of Crime – Punitivity. New Developments in Theory and Research. Bochum: Brockmeyer., 173-196. Niedenthal, P. M., Krauth-Gruber, S. & Ric, F. (2006). Psychology of Emotion. Interpersonal, Experiental, and Cognitive Approaches. New York: Psychology Press. President‟s Commission on Law Enforcement and Administration of Justice (1967). The Challenge of Crime in a Free Society. Washington: Government Printing Office. Reuband, K. H. (2000). Der “Standardindikator zur Messung der Kriminalitätsfurcht – in skandalöser Weise“ unspezifisch und in der Praxis dennoch brauchbar? MschrKrim 83, 185-195. Rosenberg, M. J. & Hovland, C. I. (1960). Cognitive, Affective, and Behavioral Components of Attitudes, In: C. I. Hovland, M. J. Rosenberg, W. J. McGuire, R. P. Abelson & J. W. Brehm (eds.), Attitude Organization and Change. New Haven: Yale University Press. 114. Rountree, P. (1998). A Reexamination of the Crime-Fear-Linkage. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 35, 341-372.

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Rountree, P. & Land, K. (1996). Perceived Risk versus Fear of Crime: Empirical Evidence of Conceptually Distinct Reactions in Survey Data. Social Forces, 74, 1353-1376. Sessar, K. (1990). The Forgotten Nonvictim. International Review of Victimology, 1, 113132. Schermelleh-Engel, K., Moosbrugger, H. & Müller, H. (2003). Evaluating the Fit of Structural Equation Models: Tests of Significance and Descriptive Goodness-of-Fit Measures. Methods of Psychological Research Online, 8, 23-74. Smith, W. R. & Torstensson, M. (1997). Gender Differences in Risk Perception and Neutralizing Fear of Crime. British Journal of Criminology, 37, 608-634. Smith, W. R., Torstensson, M. & Johansson, K. (2001). Perceived Risk and Fear of Crime: Gender Differences in Contextual Sensitivity. International Review of Victimology, 8, 159-181. Sparks, R. F., Genn, H. G. & Dodd, D. J. (1977). Surveying Victims. A Study of the Measurement of Criminal Victimization, Perceptions of Crime, and Attitudes to Criminal Justice. Chicester: Wiley. Surette, R. (2007). Media, Crime, and Criminal Justice: Images, Realities, and Policies. Belmont: Thomson. Tseloni, A. & Zarafonitou, C. (2008). Fear of Crime and Victimisation. A Multivariate Multilevel Analysis of Competing Measurements. European Journal of Criminology, 5, 387-409. Warr, M. (1984). Fear of Victimization: Why are Women and the Elderly more afraid? Social Science Quarterly, 65, 681-702. Warr, M. (1985). Fear of Rape among Urban Women. Social Problems, 32, 238-250. Warr, M. (1987). Fear of Victimization and Sensitivity to Risk. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 3, 29-46. Warr, M. (2000). Fear of Crime in the United States: Avenues for Research and Policy, In: D. Duffee, (ed.), Criminal Justice 2000, Vol. 4. Measurement and Analysis of Crime and Justice. Washington: National Institute of Justice., 451-489. Warr, M. & Stafford M. (1983). Fear of Victimization: A Look at the Proximate Causes. Social Forces, 61, 1033-1043. Winkel, F. W. (1998). Fear of Crime and Criminal Victimization. Testing a Theory of Psychological Incapacitation of the „Stressor‟ Based on Downward Comparison Processes. British Journal of Criminology, 38, 473-484. Winkel, F. W. & Denkers, A. (1995): Crime Victims and their Social Network: A Field Study on the Cognitive Effects of Victimization, Attributional Responses, and the VictimBlaming-Model. International Review of Victimology, 3, 309-322. Zarafonitou, C. (2008). Fear of Crime and Victimisation: The Greek Experience, in: H. Kury (ed.), Fear of Crime–Punitivity. New Developments in Theory and Research. Bochum: Brockmeyer., 159-172.

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In: Crime: Causes, Types and Victims Editor: Alicia E. Hasselm, pp. 87-108

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Chapter 4

LEARNING FROM CRIME: THE CASE OF THE ‘TLÁHUAC’ LYNCHING

1

Jaime Santos-Reyes1, Samuel Olmos-Peña, and Daniel Santos-Reyes2 Seguridad, Análisis de Riesgos, Accidentes y Confiabilidad de Sistemas” (SARACS), Departamento de Ingeniería de Sistemas, SEPI-ESIME, IPN, México 2 Universidad Tecnológica de la Mixteca, México

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Abstract The chapter presents some preliminary results of the analysis of the „Tláhuac‟ lynching incident that occurred in Mexico City on 23 November 2004. The fatal lynching incident occurred when an angry mob burnt two police officers alive and seriously injured another after mistaking them for child kidnappers. The third policeman who was finally rescued by colleagues (almost four hours after the attack began) suffered serious injuries. The methodology for the analysis has been the application of the MORT (Management Over-sight Risk Three) model. The MORT may be regarded as a structured checklist in the form of a complex „fault tree‟ that is intended to ensure that all aspects of an organization‟s management are looked into when assessing the possible causes of an incident or accident. The model has been extensively used to analyse past failure of socio-technical systems such as, oil and gas industry, transport, etc. It may be argued that this is the first time that such an approach has been applied to the case of a failed social system. A number of causal factors leading to the incident have been highlighted by the technique. It is hoped that by conducting such analysis lessons can be learnt so that incidents such as the case of „Tláhuac‟ can be prevented in the future.

Keywords: Crime, MORT, Lynching, „Tláhuac‟ incident.

Introduction Crime and disorder may comprise a “vast set of events involving behaviour formally deemed against the law and usually committed with „evil intent‟” (Ekblom, 2005). These

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events range from murder to fraud, theft, vandalism, dealing in drugs, kidnappings and terrorist atrocities that threaten the public safety. On the other hand, Ekblom (2005) has defined public safety as “a state of existence in which people, individually and collectively, are sufficiently free from a range of real and perceived risks centering on crime and disorder, are sufficiently able to cope with those they nevertheless experience, and where unable to cope unaided, are sufficiently-well protected from the consequences of these risks”. Crime may be regarded as a major source of social concern in the modern world. Very often increases in crime rates will be treated as headline news, and many people see the „law and order‟ issue as one of the most pressing in modern society. There have been a number of studies intended to „solve‟ the crime problem; for example, in the US, Wilson (1975) published a book in which he argued that criminologists have failed to offer practical solutions to crime control. Moreover, Wilson et al. (1968, 1982) and Kelling (1986) have argued that “collective neighbourhood efforts can influence crime…community crime control works”. More recently, a number of theories have been proposed in order to address „community neighbourhood‟. For example, “coproduction” is a concept that has been put forward to characterize the cooperative work of the police, neighbourhood residents, and a host of other organizations to control crime (Bayley, 1994, Frank et al., 1996; Skogan & Hartnett, 1997; Koven 1992). However, a number of studies have found that communities have shown that acquiring and sustaining citizen involvement can present a significant stumbling block to co-productive efforts (Greene, 2000; Moore et al., 1999; Community Policing Consortium, 1994; Roehl et al., 2000; Rosenbaum et al., 1998; Sadd & Grinc, 1996; Skogan et al., 2000). On the other hand, several authors argued that the model of „social disorganization‟ theory and the concept of „neighbourhood efficacy‟ may help to better understand why the residents may or may not get involved in specific actions in the face of perceived neighbourhood problems (Bursik & Grasmick, 1993; Morenoff et al., 2001; Rose & Clear 1998; Sampson, 1988; Sampson & Groves, 1989; Kasarda & Janowitz, 1974; Taylor, 1996).

Lynching According to the Compact Oxford English Dictionary, the origin of the word lynch comes from Lynch‟s law, named after Captain William Lynch, head of a self-constituted judicial tribunal in Virginia c.1780 (“Lynch”, n.d.). Also, from the World English Dictionary (“Lynch mob”, n.d.), „lynch mob‟ is defined as “group of killers: a group of people who capture and hang somebody without legal arrest and trial, because they think the person has committed a crime”. Lynching incidents are not new, in fact during the late 19th and early 20th centuries, thousands of African Americans and Latin Americans were lynched (Beck & Tolnay, 1990; Brundage, 1993; Stovel, 2001; Tolnay & Beck, 1992; Tolney et al., 1989, 1995, 1996). However, it may be argued that these lynches were motivated by denial of political and social equality in the US (Pfeifer, 2006). On the other hand, there has been lynching incidents involving police officers worldwide. For example, on 29th November 2006, two police officers needed medical treatment following an incident involving a father and son in a small town in England. It is believed the incident started when the son was arrested by the police. His father assaulted a policeman before a “hostile crowd” joined in. The two policemen were punched and kicked and one

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officer was hit by a bottle resulting in the loss of some hearing (“„Hostile crowd‟ attacked”, 2006). The book chapter presents the results of the analysis of the „Tláhuac‟ lynching incident. The fatal incident occurred in Mexico City on 23 November 2004 when an angry mob lynched two police officers and seriously injured another after mistaking them for child kidnappers. The third police officer who was finally rescued by colleagues (almost four hours after the attack began) suffered serious injuries. The chapter addresses the question of why the three police officers were left alone and why they were not rescued in time by their colleagues. The methodology for the analysis has been the application of the MORT (Management Over-sight Risk Tree) analytical tool (Kingston et al., 2002).

Crime in Mexico Six National Crime Victim Surveys (known as ENSI, 1-6 respectively) have been conducted since 2001 in Mexico. The surveys are intended to provide a better knowledge of the levels of crime which affect the safety of the Mexican citizens (Instituto Ciudadano de Estudios Sobre la Inseguridad [ICESI], 2010). This section will present some key findings of the ENSI-3 (ICESI, 2010) which was conducted in 2004; the objective is to show the population‟s perception of crime before the „Tláhuac‟ lynching incident. Figure 1 shows the types of crime according to the ENSI-3 survey. It can be seen that robbery is the type of crime that affected most of the population. That is, 73% of the total delinquency recorded, was related to robbery. 16.7

Other

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Vehicle robbery

5.6

Non-resident without violence robbery

9.7 11.4

Car accesory robbery Burglary

17.8

Non-resident violent robbery

28.6 0.5

Kidnapping Sexual offence

1.7

Assault

8 0

5

10

15

20

25

%

Figure 1. Types of crime-ENSI-3 (ICESI, 2010).

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30

35

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Jaime Santos-Reyes, Samuel Olmos-Peña and Daniel Santos-Reyes

8

Other

14

Without evidence

18

Lack of trust to the authorities Difficult and time consuming procedures

8

Crime of little importance

8 35

Waste of time 8

Afraid of being bullied by the attacker Afraid of extorsion

1 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

%

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Figure 2. Reasons of why the population did not report crime, ENSI-3 (ICESI, 2010).

Regarding the crime reporting rate, the ENSI-3 showed that 77% of all types of crime were unreported. The population did not report the crime because they considered it a „waste of time‟, „lack of trust to the authorities‟, and „crime of little importance‟ (50%, 19% and 9% respectively), as shown in Figure 2. On the other hand, those who reported the crime incident when asked what happened to their report, the ENSI-3 showed increases in the public‟s frustration rate to reporting for „nothing happen‟, „in process‟ (49% and 26% respectively). Similarly, 42% of robbery crime victims considered that reporting it is a “waste of time”; 15% “do not trust the authorities” and 14% believed that the “difficult and time consuming procedures”. The ENSI-3 included measures of public perceptions of the police. The questions being asked varied, ranging from ratings of the police in terms of how good a job they do to perceptions of different aspects of policing. The results show that 7 out of 10 of those interviewed have “Little” or “Not at all” confidence on the police forces, as shown in Figure 3.

Lyinching Incidents in Mexico Lynching Incidents before the ‘Tláhuac’ Case Figure 4 shows that there have been about 38 incidents before the „Tláhuac‟ lynching. These incidents involved police officers, sexual offenders, thefts, etc. It should be pointed out that the incidents shown in Figure 4 are those that have been reported in the mass media (it may be more cases than those reported in the media).

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60

50

48

%

40

30

27 23

20

10 2 0 Little

Not at all

A lot

Do not know

Figure 3. Population‟s perceptions on the police, ENSI-3 (ICESI, 2010).

Figure 4. Lynching incidents before the „Tláhuac‟ incident.

A brief description of each of the incidents is given in the subsequent paragraphs.

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1999 There were five lynching incidents in 1999. In one of the incidents, police officers were involved; one fatality resulted in one of the incidents that occurred this year. August 15 The population of one of the Mexico City‟s neighbourhoods attempted to lynch a member of a gang. The mob hit him; it is believed he was tied for nearly 10 hours in the main square. The offender was rescued by four police officers but the mob attempted to lynch them too; however, they managed to escape but their police car was destroyed. (Olmos Peña, 2008). October 18 A theft was killed by a mob of about 60 people (most of them were passengers of an intercity bus) in one of Mexico City‟s neighbourhoods. It is believed that some of the passengers were robbed by the offender. (Torres, 1999).

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November 2 Three thefts were about to be lynched by angry passengers; it is believed that thefts had robbed an intercity bus a day before and raped a woman. The thefts were rescued by the police. (Enríquez, 1999). December 18 An intercity bus driver was about to be lynched by an angry crowd because he ran over a boy of two years. (Andonaegui, 1999). December 29 About 200 people attempted to lynch a theft; it is believed the offender was caught stealing goods from a lorry. (Tinoco, 1999).

2000 There were six lynching incidents in 2000. Two thefts and a supposed rapist were killed by the mob. August 14 The population of one of the Mexico City‟s neighbourhoods attempted to lynch an offender that pretended to be an FBI officer. The offender was rescued by the police. (Andonaegui, 2000).

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September 30 A theft was about to be lynched by an angry mob. It is believed the offender threatened a bus driver with a fake gun. The police rescued the offender when the crowd was hitting him. (Olmos Peña, 2008). October 20 A sex offender was killed by an angry mob in the outskirts of Mexico City. (Olmos Peña, 2008). October 23 A mob of about 500 people tried to burn alive a sexual offender. It is believed the offender attempted to rape a young girl. He was rescued by the police. (Rodriguez, 2000). November 12 Police officers rescued a rustler when a mob attempted to lynched him in the state of Chiapas. It is believed the rustler has been tied for more than 15 hours when he was finally rescued. (Rodriguez, 2000).

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December 5 Two robbers were killed by an angry crowd in the state of Chiapas. (Olmos Peña, 2008).

2001 There were seven lynching incidents in 2001. A theft was killed by the mob in one of the incidents. March 26 Two robbers were about to be lynched by an angry mob but were rescued by the police. It is believed that the thefts stole cash from a woman. (Olmos Peña, 2008). March 27 A crowd attempted to lynch thefts but they were rescued by the police. (Otero, 2001a). July 26 A mob killed a theft; it is believed that he was caught stealing money from a church. (Otero, 2001b). August 13 Similarly, a theft was rescued by the police when an angry crowd attempted to lynch him. It is believed that he was caught stealing religious items in a church. (Valadez, 2001).

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October 29 An angry crowd attempted to lynch a sex offender when he was caught raping a woman. The police rescued him from an angry mob. (Olmos Peña, 2008). November 7 About 300 people attempted to lynch a robber. (Andonaegui, 2001) December 17 Two offenders were about to be lynched by an angry crowd; it is believed the offenders hit a young boy. (Herrera, 2001).

2002 There were six lynching incidents in 2002. Three offenders were killed by the mob in two separate incidents.

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January 6 Two teenagers were killed when hit by a car. The car driver was killed by an angry mob. (Olmos Peña, 2008). January 19 A burglar was rescued by the police when he was hit by an angry crowd for more than 20 minutes. (Olmos Peña, 2008). April 23 Two offenders were about to be lynched by the population when he was trying to steal a car from an elderly. (Olmos Peña, 2008). June 1 Topographers were about to be lynched by farmers; they were rescued by the police. (Lázaro, 2002). December 5 An angry mob killed two thefts; it is believed the offenders were trying to steal a taxi. (Olmos Peña, 2008). December 6

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About 300 people attempted to lynch two book sellers; the mob believed they were drug traffickers. (Olmos Peña, 2008)

2003 There were seven lynching incidents in 2003. A police officer was about to be lynched in one of the incidents. January 2 An angry mob was about to lynch a car accessories theft but he was finally rescued by the police. (Olmos Peña, 2008). January 13 An angry mob was about to lynch a sexual offender; it is believed that he attempted to rape a teenage girl. (García, 2003). June 6 A robber was about to be lynched by an angry mob but he was rescued by the police. (Perez, 2003).

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July 24 Five offenders were about to be lynched when the police rescued them. (Olmos Peña, 2008). September 9 An angry mob attempted to lynch a sexual offender but he was rescued by the police. (Lagunas & Herrera, 2003). September 30 A police officer was lynched by the mob. (Lagunas, 2003). October 31 A thief was about to be lynched by an angry crowd when the police rescued him. (Bolaños, 2003).

2004 There were eight lynching incidents in 2004 (including the „Tláhuac‟ incident). February 9 An angry mob was about to lynch a police officer when he fired his gun and crashed his car into a house. (Herrera, 2004).

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March 3 Two police officers were about to be lynched by an angry mob; it is believed they attempted to extort a truck driver. Both of them were severely hit and finally were rescued not by the police but by a group of inhabitants of the same neighbourhood. (Lazaro, 2004). March 8 An angry crowd attempted to lynch a bus driver; it is believed the bus driver was over speeding and crashed the bus into a lamp post; it is believed about 25 passengers were injured as a result of the crash. (Velasco, 2004a). August 6 A woman was about to be lynched by the mob; it is believed she stole cash from a shop. She was tied and hit for about 9 hours (Lagunas, 2004). September 29 An angry crowd lynched three robbers and it is believed that they were severely injured because the mob hit them for about seven hours (Velasco, 2004b).

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October 20 A car driver was about to be lynched by an angry crowd; it is believed the driver ran over an elderly person. He was rescued by the police but his car was destroyed by the mob (Olmos Peña, 2008). November 11 A thief was caught stealing electronic items as well as musical instruments; the mob was about to lynch him but he finally was rescued by the police (Cabrera, 2004).

The ‘Tláhuac’ Lynching Incident In order to facilitate the description of the key events leading to the incident, in what follows, a brief description of the key police organizations involved in the incident is given.

FPSS (Federal Public Security Secretary) In general, the aim of the FPSS is to preserve freedom, public order as well as safeguarding the integrity and rights of the Mexican citizen‟s thorough crime prevention (Secretaria de Seguridad Publica [SSP], 2010). The Federal Preventive Police Department (FPPD) was part of the FPSS; the three FPP-officers involved in the lynching were effectively members of the FPPD.

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MCPSS (Mexico City Public Security Secretary) Overall, the main purpose of the MCPSS is to maintain law and order; to protect the physical integrity of the people and their goods; to prevent crime; and to help the population in case of disasters, etc. (Secretaria de Seguridad Pública del DF [SSPDF], 2010).

LPP (Local Preventive Police) Mexico City has 16 municipalities and one of them is the „Tláhuac‟ municipality where the lynching took place). The „Tláhuac‟ municipality has its police forces called “Preventive Police”; hereafter Local Preventive Police (LPP). It should be pointed out that the LPP forces are part of the MCPSS. There was another police organization called “officers of court” within the MCPSS that were involved in the incident. In what follows a brief account of the „Tláhuac‟ lynching incident is presented. (It should be pointed out that there is not an official inquiry or document about the incident. The mass media reports have been the main source of information for the present analysis). On 23rd November 2004 an angry mob burnt two police officers alive and seriously injured another after mistaken them for child kidnappers. The third police officer was finally rescued by colleagues almost four hours after the attack began. (The three police officers were members of the FPPD. The incident occurred at San Juan Ixtayoapan, a neighbourhood of approximately 35,000 inhabitants on Mexico City‟s southern outskirts; however, the

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incident is better known as the „Tláhuac‟ case. It is believed that the three FPP-officers were taken photographs of pupils at a primary school, where two children had recently gone missing. TV reporters reached the scene before police reinforcements arrived, and live cameras caught a crowd beating the FPP-officers. The main events leading to the lynching incident are thought to be (“Linchan a agentes de la PFP”, 2004; “Linchamiento en Tláhuac parecía celebración”, 2005). November 12, 2004 It is believed that the population complained to the local authorities about a group of suspects (i.e., the FPP-officers) filming children on the streets and in the schools. The locals asked them why they were filming children to which they replied that they were doing their duties. It is believed the officers claimed that they have been working for the FPP branch. November 23, 2004

17:55-18:10 Residents caught the FPP-officers in plain clothes taking photographs of pupils leaving the school in San Juan Ixtayopan neighbourhood. It is believed the three FPP officers were mistaken for child kidnappers by the mob.

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18:25-18:30 One of the FPP-officers tried to communicate with his superiors at the Federal Preventive Police headquarters but failed in the attempt. It is believed there was a meeting going on at the time of his call and his superior was unable to assist him. At about the same time, the crowd cheered, chanted obscenities as they attacked the police officers. A first live TV coverage is being broadcasted. 18:50 The sub-secretary of Mexico City‟s Public Security Department (MCPSD) has been notified of the incident. 19:13-19:15 It is believed that communication between the two key departments took place; i.e. MCPSD & FPPD. It is thought the purpose of the call was to inquire whether the three FPPofficers were effectively working for the FPP forces. It is believed the sub-secretary of the MCPSD made the telephone call. 19:30 Again, one of the three FPP-officers attempted for a second time to establish communication with their superiors and it was broadcasted live. It is believed the police officer said “They are not allowing us to get out, come and rescue us”. At about the same time, the Chief of the FPP Department (FPPD) has been notified of the incident. 19:55 The Head of the FPPD received a report that the three FPP-officers were effectively members of the “Federal Preventive Police” forces.

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20:05 The head of the MCPSD received a report about the incident. 20:19 The head of the FPPD left his office to attend another meeting planned for that day. 20:38 The head of the FPPD argued that he established contact with the sub-secretary of the MCPSD to inform him of the latest developments in the incident. However, he claims, that the sub-secretary did not say that the three PFP officers have been in a difficult situation. 21:40 Police forces arrived to control the situation and restore order. 23:50 Almost four hours after the incident started the bodies of the two FPP-officers were recovered and the third police officer rescued by the police force. November 24 2004 At about 18:00, it is believed 3000 police forces took part in the operation to bring public order. The operation ended at about 20:00 hrs and 23 people were arrested.

The Analysis

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The MORT The Management Oversight and Risk Tree (MORT) is an analytical procedure for determining causes and contributing factors. In MORT, accidents are defined as “unplanned events that produce harm or damage, that is, losses” (Kingston et al., 2002). Losses occur when a harmful agent comes into contact with a person or asset. This contact can occur either because of a failure of prevention or, as an unfortunate but acceptable outcome of a risk that has been properly assessed and acted-on (a so-called "assumed risk"). MORT analysis always evaluates the "failure" route before considering the "assumed risk" hypothesis. Figure 5 shows the basic MORT structure. The top event in MORT is labelled “Losses”, beneath which are its two alternative causes; i.e., {1} “Oversights & Omissions”, {2} “Assumed risks”. In MORT all the contributing factors in the accident sequence are treated as “oversights and omissions” unless they are transferred to the “Assumed risk” branch. Input to the “Oversights and Omissions” event is through and AND logic gate. This means that problems manifest in the specific control of work activities, necessarily involve issues in the management process that govern them. On the other hand, the “Specific and Management” branches are regarded as the two main branches in MORT (see Figure 5). Specific control factors are broken down in to two main classes: {a} those related to the incident or accident (SA1), and {b} those related to restoring control following an accident (SA2). Both of them are under an OR logic gate because either can be a cause of losses.

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In MORT analysis, most of the effort is directed at identifying problems in the control of a work/process and deficiencies in the protective “barriers” associated with it. These problems are then analysed for their origins in planning, design, policy, etc. In order to use MORT key episodes in the sequence of events should be identified first; each episode can be characterised as: {1} a vulnerable target exposed to; {b} an agent of harm in the; {c} absence of adequate barriers. In order to identify these key episodes, it is necessary to undertake a barrier analysis (or "Energy Trace and Barrier Analysis"). The “Barrier analysis” is intended to produce a clear set of episodes for MORT analysis. It embraces three key concepts, namely: {a} “energy”; {b} “target”; and {c} “barrier”. “Energy” refers to the harmful agent that threatens or actually damages a “Target” that is exposed to it. “Targets” can be people, things or processes. In MORT, an incident can result either from exposure to an energy flow without injuries or damage, or the damage of a target with no intrinsic value. “Barrier” part of the title refers to the means by which “Targets” are kept safe from “Energies”. (Kingston et al., 2002).

The Analysis

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A barrier analysis for the „Tláhuac‟ incident has been conducted and Table 1 shows the episode that was considered for the analysis. It has been assumed that the three police officers („Target‟) were threatened by an angry mob (the „energy flow‟).

Figure 5. Basic MORT structure (Kingston, et al., 2002).

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Jaime Santos-Reyes, Samuel Olmos-Peña and Daniel Santos-Reyes Table 1. Barrier analysis Energy flow Angry crowd

Target 3 FPPofficers

Barrier FPP-officers in plain clothes taking pictures of pupils leaving school. FPP-officers did not have an official ID or equivalent to demonstrate that they were effectively members of the PFPD.

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Figure 6. Branch SB3- “Control & Barriers LTA”. (Red: problems that contributed to the outcome). For further details about each of the events shown in the figure, see Kingston et al. (2002).

Figure 7. Branch SD1- “technical Information Systems LTA”. (Red: problems that contributed to the outcome. Blue: need more information). For further details about each of the events shown in the figure, see Kingston, et al. (2002).

Figures 6,7&8 show some branches of the MORT tree. It was necessary to colour-code the chart as suggested in the NRI MORT User‟s manual (Kingston et al., 2002). The colourcode used was the following: {a} red, where a problem is found; {b} green, where a relevant

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issue is judged to have been satisfactory; and {c} blue, to indicate where there has been a need to find more information to properly assess it.

Figure 8. Branch SA2- “Stabilisation & Restoration LTA”. (Red: problems that contributed to the outcome. Green: is judged to have been satisfactory). For further details about each of the events shown in the figure, see Kingston et al. (2002).

Causal Factors Identified by the Analysis The summary of some of the main failures that have been highlighted by the MORT model are the following:  

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

 

  





The three FPP-officers lack of knowledge about what to do under such circumstances. The key decision makers (the heads of the MCPSS, FPPD, FPSS, and the „Tláhuac‟ municipality (TM)) lack of knowledge about what to do under such circumstances. Deficiencies in the information system that could have been used to share key information by the key decision makers; i.e. heads of the MCPSS, FPPD, FPSS & TM. Lack of coordination amongst the MCPSS, FPPD, FPSS & TM organizations. There have been several lynching incidents in the past; however the MCPSS, FPPD, FPSS & TM did not learn from them. Moreover, it seems that these lynching incidents have not been investigated. Inadequacy of the internal communication within the MCPSS, FPPD, FPSS & TM organizations. Inadequacy of the external communication amongst the MCPSS, FPPD, FPSS & TM organizations. Inadequacy of the operational readiness of the FPP-officers at the time of the incident; i.e. the police were left on their own without a back up units in case of an emergency. Deficiencies in the supervision and monitoring of the FPP-officers‟ operations. It seems that the supervisors and heads of the MCPSS, FPPD, FPSS & TM lack of adequate training for such scenarios. The heads of the MCPSS, FPPD, FPSS & TM neither detected nor corrected the hazards in time. As it has been mentioned, there have been several lynching incidents involving police officers before the „Tláhuac‟ case.

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     

The heads of MCPSS, FPPD, FPSS & TM failed to act in time. It is clear that if they had acted in time the lynching incident could have been prevented. There is no evidence of a risk assessment as a key component in the decision making process; even if it was conducted it did not highlight this scenario. The “barriers” (i.e. any device or method designed to protect vulnerable targets, in this case the three police officers) failed. The police officers wore plain clothes when surrounded by an angry mob they could not convince them that they were actually police officers. The rescue and salvage plan, if any, failed. The police force unit arrived three and half hours after the incident have started. The MCPSS, FPPD, FPSS & TM failed to respond timely. The MCPSS, FPPD, FPSS & TM failed to disseminate all the information related to the incident The MCPSS, FPPD, FPSS & TM failed to give the media and public adequate and reliable information about the incident. Deficiencies of planning and design process related to the police officers‟ operations. Moreover, there was not a hazard analysis to support these. Lack of a contingency plan for this type of scenarios. It seems that they were left to improvisation.

The Book Chapter Addressed the Following Questions

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Why the Police Officers Were not Rescued in Time? What Went Wrong? As it has been mentioned in the previous section, the MORT model is a large tree which is intended to identify all the organizational failures leading to an incident. The „energy flow‟ that has been considered for the analysis was an “angry mob” and the “barriers” between the „Target‟ (i.e. the three FPP-officers) and the „energy flow‟ are known in MORT as “barriers”. In the MORT model when the “barriers” fail the undesirable event occurs; i.e. the lynching of the police officers. Figures 7,8&9 show some examples of the branches of the MORT tree that have been analyzed.

Branch SB3-“Barriers and Controls LTA (Less Than Adequate)” Overall, this branch of the tree is intended to assess whether adequate „barriers and control‟ were in place in order to prevent vulnerable persons (i.e. the three police officers; see Figure 6) from being exposed to harmful „energy flows‟ (the mob). In this case, the police officers‟ IDs, uniforms, communication kit (i.e. mobile phone, radio communications), patrol car, etc. are considered as “barriers” intended to protect the police officers. However, the three FPP-officers did not have any of these. Moreover, there were inadequacies of the process involved in the investigation and analysis, if any, of the previous lynching incidents. Moreover, the branch SD1-a2, a3, “data collection and analysis” (see Figure 7), was deficient or inexistent. For example, there have been about 38 lynching incidents before the „Tláhuac‟ case; however, it seems that these have not been investigated or analyzed in order to learn the lessons. Furthermore, deficiencies in

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the communication of knowledge prior and during the incident; for example, when the three PFP-officers were catch by the mob, they did not know what to do in this type of scenario. Similarly, there were not plans in place to monitoring the police officers‟ operations. Had the relevant information been available to the police officers, for example, what to do and how to act in this kind of scenarios they might have avoided the lynching and clearly this was not the case. Finally, it may be argued that due to the nature of the police officers‟ operations and given that previous lynching incidents have occurred, and then clearly this particular operation should have triggered a hazard analysis. A hazard analysis should have identified this type of scenario and the lynching incident could have been prevented. On the other hand, the branch “SD6-Support and supervision” considers whether upper management; i.e. FPPD, FPPD, LPD, and MCPSD supported and guided their organizations adequately, allowing the achieving of satisfactory control of the police operations. Again, this was not the case; see for example the above paragraphs. Moreover, it seems that there were enough resources to deal with the emergency; i.e. it is believed there were about 500 FPP officers about 10 Km from where the lynching took place. Moreover, there were about 30,000 policemen, 1,800 riot police, 1000 mounted police and about 800 special operations police units (“Linchan a agentes de la PFP”, 2004). Furthermore, it is believed that at the „Tláhuac‟ municipality there were about 400 police officers available (“Linchan a agentes de la PFP”, 2004). However, none of these units were called to rescues their colleagues. However, it seems that there were conflicts amongst the heads of the police departments involved in the incident. It seems that the event was not considered as a matter of urgency. Finally, the branch “SA2-Stabilization and restoration LTA” (see Figure 8), is intended to evaluate the events following a serious accident; i.e. the lynching incident. It has been found that there was a lack of a plan for stabilization and restoration for lynching incidents. Moreover, there was not an emergency plan to rescue the three police officers. Furthermore, there was not a rescue and salvage plan and if it was clearly it was inadequate. It took almost four hours to recover the burnt bodies of the two police officers and rescue the third.

Lessons Learned Some of the key lessons derived from the analysis of the „Tláhuac‟ incident are the following: (a) there is a need to incorporate risk analysis in the police decision-making process; (b) the previous lynching incidents should be investigated and analyzed so that lessons can be learned and prevent future incidents; (c) there is a need for a well coordinated system amongst the key players (i.e. MCPSS, FPPD, FPSS & TM) in their daily operations; (d) there is a need for a „hot-line‟ that should be used in critical circumstances such as the „Tláhuac‟ incident; (e) the staff and supervisors, line managers, and heads of the MCPSS, FPPD, FPSS & TM should be trained to deal with such incidents.

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Conclusion

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Lynching incidents are not new; they have occurred in the past where thousands of people have been lynched in the US. However, it may be argued that those lynching incidents had been motivated by denial of political and social equality in the US. On the other hand, it may be argued that the „Tláhuac‟ lynching incident may be regarded as „the mob lynching policing‟ due to the fact that the Mexican government, in general, has failed to control crime and the population‟s perception is that they can bring order by the „mob lynching policing‟. The book chapter addressed the question of what went wrong and if the „Tláhuac‟ lynching incident could have been prevented. The approach to the analysis has been the application of the MORT model. The model has included a number of causal factors that contributed to the fatal incident. One of the key conclusions is that the event could have been prevented if the authorities had acted accordingly. Overall, the application of the MORT model to the case of the „Tláhuac‟ lynching incident has been useful. As it has been mentioned in the introduction, the model has been developed to analyze past failure of socio-technical systems but it has been demonstrated that it can be useful for the analysis of crime incidents such as the „Tláhuac‟ lynching. Further research is needed in order to have some final conclusions and lessons of the „Tláhuac‟ lynching incident. That is, more analysis should be conducted on the branch “WHY?” shown in Figure 5; this may reveal more deficiencies in the „management system‟ in place at the time of the incident; this has not been explored in detailed because of the lack of reliable information available at present. Moreover, other accident analysis tools can be applied in order to see their potentiality in the identification of causal factors for this type of system. The following approaches can be applied: STAMP (Leveson, 2000); PRISMA (vad der Schaaft, 1996); SSMS model (Santos-Reyes & Beard, 2008); and others that may be relevant. It is hoped that by conducting such analysis, lessons can be learnt so that similar events can be prevented in the future.

Acknowledgments This project was funded by SIP-IPN under the following grant: SIP-IPN: No-20101302.

References Andonaegui, R. H. (1999, December 19). Arrolla conductor de un microbús a un menor de edad. El universal. Retrieved from http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/ noticia.html?id_nota=5718&tabla=ciudad. Andonaegui, R. H. (2000, August 14). Impide la PJ linchamiento en Iztapalapa. El Universal. Retrieved from http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id_ nota= 14249&tabla=ciudad. Andonaegui, R. H. (2001, November 8). Consignan a policía que arrolló a tres personas. El Universal. Retrieved from http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id_ nota=36490&tabla=ciudad. Bayley, D. H. (1994). Police for the future. New York: Oxford University Press.

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Kingston. J., Koornneef, F., Van den Ruit, J., Frei, R. & Schallier, P. (2002). NRI MORT user’s manual. For use with the management oversight and risk tree analytical logic diagram. AG Delft: Noordwijk Risk Initiative Foundation. Koven, S. G. (1992). Coproduction of law enforcement services: Benefits and implications. Urban Affairs Quarterly, 27, 457-469. Lagunas, I. (2003, October 1). Linchan y detienen a un judicial mexiquense. El Universal. Retrieved from http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id_ nota=53674&tabla=ciudad. Lagunas, I. (2004, August 7). Enfurece a Santa Rosa Xochiac robo en pollería; salvan a mujer. El Universal. Retrieved from http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/ noticia.html?id_nota=61489&tabla=ciudad. Lagunas, I. & Herrera, O. (2003, September 10). Detienen a cuatro presuntos violadores. El Universal. Retrieved from http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia. html?id_nota=53206&tabla=ciudad. Lázaro, J. (2002, June 2). Intentan linchar en Atenco a topógrafos. El Universal. Retrieved from http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id_nota=44893&tabla= ciudad. Lázaro, J. (2004, March 3). Tratan vecinos de linchar a dos judiciales. El Universal. Retrieved from http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id_nota= 57625&tabla=ciudad. Leveson, N. (2004). A New Accident Model for Engineering Safer Systems, Safety Science, 42, 237-270. Linchamiento en Tláhuac parecía celebración. (2005, January 10). Fuerza Informativa Azteca (FIA). Retrieved from http://www.tvazteca.com/noticias. Linchan a agentes de la PFP en Tláhuac. (2004, November 24). Fuerza Informativa Azteca (FIA). Retrieved from http://www.tvazteca.com/noticias. Lynch mob. (n.d.). In Encarta® World English Dictionary online. Retrieved from http://encarta.msn.com/encnet/features/dictionary/DictionaryResults.aspx?lextype=3&sea rch=lynch%20mob. Lynch. (n.d.). In AskOxford.com: Compact Oxford English Dictionary online. Retrieved from http://www.askoxford.com/results/?view=dict&freesearch=lynch&branch=13842570&te xtsearchtype=exact. Moore, M. H., Thacher, D., Hartmann, F. X., Coles, C. & Scheingold, P. (1999). Case studies of the transformation of police departments: A cross-site analysis. Washington, DC: Urban Institute. Morenoff, J. D., Sampson, R. J. & Raudenbush, S. W. (2001). Neighborhood inequality, collective efficacy, and the spatial dynamics of urban violence. Criminology, 39, 517560. Olmos Peña, S. (2008). Diagnóstico de la falla de un sistema social: caso del incidente ―Tláhuac‖ ocurrido el 23 de noviembre del 2004. Master‟s thesis, SEPI-ESIME, Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Mexico. Otero, S. (2001a, March 28). Rescatan a dos asaltantes de un posible linchamiento. El Universal. Retrieved from http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id _nota=25597&tabla=ciudad . Otero, S. (2001b, July 27). Lo lincharon por robar la iglesia. El Universal. Retrieved from http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id_nota=31355&tabla=ciudad

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Pérez, G. (2003, June 7). Chocan policías y habitantes en Tlaxcala; 30 lesionados. El Universal. Retrieved from http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia. html?id_nota=49575&tabla=estados. Pfeifer, M. J. (2006). Rough Justice-Lynching and American Society, 1874-1947. Illinois, US: University of Illinois Press. Rodríguez, M. (2000, October 24). Evitan agentes linchamiento. El Universal. Retrieved from http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id_nota=17284&tabla=ciudad. Roehl, J. A., Johnson, C. C., Buerger, M. E., Gaffigan, S. J., Langton, E. A. & Roth, J. A. (2000). COPS and the nature of policing. In: J. A. Roth, C. C. Johnson, G. E. Moore, R. M. White, M. E. Buerger, E. A. Langstong, & D. Thacher (Eds.), National evaluation of the COPS program—Title I of the 1994 Crime Act. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, National Institute of Justice, 179-245. Rose, D. R. & Clear, T. R. (1998). Incarceration, social capital, and crime: Implications for social disorganization theory. Criminology, 36, 441-479. Rosenbaum, D., Lurigio, A. J. & Davis, R. C. (1998). The prevention of crime: Social and institutional strategies. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth. Sadd, S. & Grinc, R. M. (1996). Implementation challenges in community policing: Innovative neighborhood-oriented policing in eight cities. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice. Sampson, R. J. (1988). Local friendship ties and community attachment in mass society: A multilevel systemic model. American Sociological Review, 53, 766-779. Sampson, R. J. & Groves, W. B. (1989). Community structure and crime: Testing socialdisorganization theory. American Journal of Sociology, 94, 774-802. Santos-Reyes, J. & Beard, A. N. (2008). A systemic approach to managing safety, Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 21(1), 15-28. Secretaria de Seguridad Publica (SSP). (2010). Retrieved from http://www.ssp.gob.mx/ Secretaria de Seguridad Pública del DF (SSPDF). (2010). Retrieved from http://portal.ssp.df.gob.mx/Portal/Organizacion/MisionyValores.htm. Skogan, W. G. & Hartnett, S. M. (1997). Community policing, Chicago style. NewYork: Oxford University Press. Skogan, W. G., Hartnett, S. M., DuBois, J., Comey, J. T., Kaiser, M. & Lovig, J. H. (2000). Problem solving in practice: Implementing community policing in Chicago. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, National Institute of Justice. Stovel, K. (2001). Local sequential patterns: The structure of lynching in the Deep South, 1882-1930. Social Forces, 79, 843-880. Taylor, R. B. (1996). Neighborhood responses to disorder and local attachments: The systemic model of attachment, social disorganization, and neighbourhood use value. Sociological Forum, 11, 41-74. Tinoco, E. (1999, December 29). Intentaron pobladores linchar a un ladrón. El Universal. Retrieved from http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id_nota=5097&tabla=estados Tolnay, S. E. & Beck, E. M. (1992). Racial violence and Black migration in the American South, 1910 to 1930. American Sociological Review, 57, 103-116. Tolnay, S. E. & Beck, E. M. (1995). A Festival of Violence: An Analysis of Southern Lynchings, 1882-1930. Urbana: University of Illinois Press.

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Tolnay, S. E., Beck, E. M. & Massey, J. L. (1989). Black lynchings: The power threat hypothesis revisited. Social Forces, 67, 605-623. Tolnay, S. E., Glenn Deane, & Beck, E. M. (1996). Vicarious violence: Spatial effects on southern lynchings, 1890-1919. American Journal of Sociology, 102, 788-815. Torres, M. (1999, October 18). Linchan a asaltante en autobús. El Universal. Retrieved from http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id_nota=3213&tabla=ciudad Valadez, E. (2001, August 14). Evita la policía otro linchamiento; el sujeto robó en una capilla. El Universal. Retrieved from http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/ impreso/ noticia.html?id_ nota=32238&tabla=ciudad. van der Schaaf, T.W. (1996). PRISMA: A Risk Management Tool Based on Incident Analysis, International Workshop on Process Safety Management and Inherently Safer Processes, October 8-11, Orlando, Florida, USA, 242-251. Velasco, A. (2004a, March 9). Hartos del mal servicio, vecinos queman 4 micros. El Universal. Retrieved from http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id_ nota=57775&tabla=ciudad. Velasco, A. (2004b, September 30). Linchan a tres por robo de $20 mil. El Universal. Retrieved from http://www2.eluniversal.com.mx/pls/impreso/noticia.html?id_ nota= 62767&tabla=ciudad. Wilson, J. (1975). Thinking about crime. US, New York: Basic Books. Wilson, J. Q. (1968). Crime in free society, selections from the president Commission on law Enforcement and Administration of Justice. California, US: Dickenson. Wilson, J. & Kelling, G. (1982, March). Broken windows: The police and neighbourhood safety. Atlantic. Retrieved from http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/ 1982/03/broken-windows/4465/.

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In: Crime: Causes, Types and Victims Editor: Alicia E. Hasselm, pp. 109-125

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Chapter 5

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POLICE EFFECTIVENESS AND CRIME RATES Isabel-Maria Garcia-Sanchez*, Luis Rodriguez-Dominguez and Javier Parra-Dominguez Universidad de Salamanca, Facultad de Economía y Empresa, Salamanca, Spain

Abstract

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Crime is a pervasive and stressing phenomenon and a problem for which there is no lack of people willing to provide incomplete, contradictory and incorrect explanations (Fisch, 2000; Ajagunna, 2006). In this sense, empirical studies are oriented to identifying the causes of crimes, so that politicians can design policy programs. Considered overall, previous literature has focused on analysing the impact of several socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of populations -such as poverty, age and gender structure, and immigration- on delinquency, in order to test the relationships between them according to traditional theories (i.e. Marvell and Moody, 1991; Ousey, 2000; McCall et al., 2008; Ousey and Kubrin, 2009). The results obtained have evidenced that the proportion of young males in the population, the percentage of people unemployed or without jobs, and the relative size of the minorities are factors that arise as strong positive drivers of violent crimes. In contrast, there is scarce evidence about the effect of police effectiveness on criminal outcomes, although governments worldwide are making important efforts to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of police services in a context of rising crime (Freeman, 1992; Shea, 2009). It should be emphasized that effectiveness means task performance; in other words, effective police services are those which solve problems: solve crimes and put more criminals behind bars (Skogan, 1976). In this sense, the aim of this work is to observe the impact of police effectiveness on crime rates for the Spanish context. We estimate several dependence models that explain the effect of the level of police effectiveness and several categories of effectiveness on global crimes, as well as on different types of crimes, controlling for the influence of a broad set of socioeconomic and demographic factors. More specifically, we use panel data models for a macro-analysis of 52 Spanish police departments from 2001 to 2006. *

E-mail address: [email protected] (Corresponding author)

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1. Introduction Crime is a constant in the history of mankind and is a pervasive and stressing phenomenon all societies must cope with. Although crime exists in societies of all kinds, and despite all efforts to remove it, it has tended to increase over time (Jones, 1993). Its effects on the economy, the social situation, prosperity and societies‟ future evolution cause great concern, making crime rates one of the most important priorities in governments. Societies therefore design mechanisms and tools to fight against criminality. The most evident mechanism has to do with police forces, which can be characterized as para-military systems charged with the goals of crime prevention, criminal investigation and apprehension, order maintenance, and service (Angel and Hagedorn, 1976; Jobson and Schneck, 1982). Although police work encompasses a broad field of activities, fighting against delinquency seems to be the most significant one, and the basis for performance evaluation. Most previous studies attempt to describe the causes of crimes, by analysing the effect of several socioeconomic and demographic features on delinquency. The findings obtained enable governments to design and implement crime prevention policies. In this line, unemployment, minorities and youth are usually argued as potential drivers of criminality in western economies. However, the role played by police effectiveness in criminal outcomes is scarcely analysed. To a certain degree, it is not easy to develop effectiveness and efficiency indicators to evaluate policing performance, owing to the diversity of the activities carried out by police. Nevertheless, governments are making important efforts to improve the effectiveness of police services in a context of rising crime; therefore, an attempt should be made to measure police performance. In this sense, the purpose of this chapter is to analyse the effect of police effectiveness on crime rates for the Spanish context. Spain follows the model of a western economy, with a long and stable economic development, which has attracted a mass of immigration, as well as other factors that influence delinquency, both directly and inversely. In Spain there are two police forces responsible for the prevention and detection of crime and the maintenance of order at national level. These are the Civil Guard, who are responsible for policing the small rural population centres and rural areas, as well as borders, ports, airports, traffic control outside the main urban centres and the movements of prisoners, and the Police Service, which is responsible for policing larger urban centres, as well as handling issues such as official documents, enforcing laws on foreigners, controlling private security agencies and cooperating with international police forces. The Security Forces in Spain (Civil Guard and Police Service) form part of the State Civil Service, and went from representing 0.052 % of government staff in 2001 to representing 0.047 % in 2006 (over 116,000 members). Thus there has been a clear decrease in the Security Forces by almost 5 % for this 2001– 2006 period. The budget for the preventive role in enhancing research and the fight against crime increased by 65 % during that period (data from the Ministry of Finance, “The Red Book”). The main offences that take place in Spain are offences against property, representing almost 93 percent of all crimes chosen for this study (offences against property, offences against the person, offences against personal liberty and offences against public safety) in 2001 and 86 % in 2006.

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With that purpose in mind, we undertake a macro-analysis of 52 Spanish police departments, by estimating several dependence models that explain the impact of the level of police effectiveness on overall crimes and on four different categories of crimes, differentiating offences against property, the person, personal liberty and public safety. Also, we control for the influence of a broad set of socioeconomic and demographic factors, such as population, immigration rate, unemployment, economic wealth and young people. Our findings highlight police effectiveness as a strong negative correlative of criminality, stressing that it is an essential factor in order to cut down crime. Concerning external factors which influence delinquency, our study evidences that higher populations and youth presence are positively associated with criminality. Moreover, we obtain a positive effect of immigration, in spite of previous findings. Nonetheless, the impact of economic variables is rather non-significant. This chapter is structured as follows. The second section describes the role played by police forces in terms of effectiveness and efficiency in order to reduce crime. Section 3 identifies some factors underlying criminality, related to socio-demographic and economic variables. Section 4 describes the research methodology: aims and scope, variables and statistical techniques. Section 5 exhibits the results, which are discussed in section 6. Finally, the last section highlights our conclusions. .

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2. Effectiveness and Efficiency of Police Activity A relevant issue related to crime rates has to do with the role played by police activity, which can definitively influence criminality and delinquency, given that, according to the economic model of crime, the perpetration of a crime strongly depends on the probabilities of apprehension and punishment, which are linked to police efficacy. In this line, the main objectives of police institutions are to ensure public safety and to protect the rights of individuals. Thus, police work covers a wide range of activities: crime detection, crime prevention, maintenance of public service as well as the provision of some services for residents (Wu et al., 2009). Traditionally, the goals of crime prevention and criminal investigation (crime-fighting objectives) have been emphasized, leading to a complex and controversial relationship with the public (Monjardet, 2000). However, it is increasingly being recognized that a large part of police activity is not directly related to crime-fighting tasks. Police activity is more accurately described as consisting of very large inputs of social work and helping services, rather than crime fighting (Angel and Hagedorn, 1976; Jobson and Schneck, 1982). Consequently, policing has witnessed a changing paradigm, shifting from the narrow perspective of reducing crime through making arrests to the wider view of strengthening its role in community life (Moore and Poething, 1998; Carmona and Grönlund, 2003). Moreover, police work is a mixture of investigation and relationship with the public in order to raise the quality of urban life, combined with the requirements made by the political, national, regional or municipal authority in charge of police administration. On the one hand, police work involves investigation that is an information-rich and knowledge-intensive practice (Berg et al., 2008). On the other hand, the relevance of government initiatives related to crime prevention and other police activities should be emphasized, given that they assign

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police their own specific task, separately from the selective requests from the public (Monjardet, 2000). Nowadays, public sector services, like the police, have experienced increasing demands for more effective decision making and more efficient management of resources (Carmona and Grönlund, 2003, p. 1476). As a consequence, effectiveness and efficiency have become essential to measure the provision of public services. Effectiveness means task performance; it is high when organizations meet their operational goals. Efficiency, on the other hand, is defined in terms of processing costs. Thus efficiency is a concept by which we assess the processing activity of organizations (how they go about facing problems), while effectiveness is a concept which denotes their global matching, i.e. their ability to solve substantive problems (Skogan, 1976). In the context of police services, effectiveness is defined as the extent to which police units prevent or reduce crime, solve crimes already committed, serve the community by participating in its affairs and are civil in dealing with the public. These multiple goals pursued by police services give us an idea of the difficulty of measuring effectiveness, because there are multiple criteria with complex interrelationships and there is also an insufficient understanding of cause-effect relationships between different means of policy intervention and outcomes (Collier, 2006, p. 165). For instance, police work seems especially averse to targets since police do not only act on crimes they see, but also prevent an unknown number of crimes, and that number is impossible to gauge (Hoogenboezem and Hoogenboezem, 2005). As Reuss-Lanni (1983, p. 93) affirms, “since there are no figures on crimes that do not occur because uniformed officers are patrolling the streets, crime statistics tell us what the criminals, not the police, are doing”. In spite of the difficulties for measuring police effectiveness, a set of performance indicators is usually developed and implemented in most western countries. Carter et al. (1992) identified the objectives of performance indicators as threefold: achieving greater control over public expenditure and greater value for money; improving managerial competence in the public sector; and bringing about increased accountability. Thus, performance indicators have been seen as part of the new public management that is oriented to accountability in terms of results (Hood, 1995). However, the notion of “police performance” is problematic in a number of dimensions (Collier, 2006, p. 166). Firstly, police activities encompass a wide set of diverse and complex initiatives, such as crime prevention, crime detection, reassurance to address the public‟s fear of crime, or the wide-ranging non-crime quality of life issues or non-crime emergency services. Therefore, performance indicators which emphasize crime provide a narrow focus on police performance. Usually, community police officers reveal that they find a considerable gap between what is measured and what actually constitutes real police work (Carmona and Grönlund, 2003, p. 1488). Secondly, the real notion of performance needs to be unpacked. It may be considered quantitatively, as in levels of crime and detection rates, or qualitatively in terms of public satisfaction with the service provided. At different levels of analysis, police performance may be somewhat different and may be interpreted differently by stakeholders. When indicators are applied, they are usually grouped into four categories: input, process, output and outcome (Mayston, 1985; Johsen, 2005; Collier, 2006). Input indicators relate to the public demand for police services, such as number of emergency calls to the police, crimes, public order incidents, road traffic collisions, etc. Process indicators refer to elements of police behaviour including time spent by officers in the public, response times, complaints

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against police, etc. Output indicators are largely concerned with arrests and detections. Finally, outcome indicators are the results of surveys of public satisfaction with policing. In short, since the activities carried out by the police are varied, it is not easy to develop effectiveness and efficiency indicators to measure their activities. In addition, some external environmental factors beyond the control of police departments might affect police efficiency, given that there is an element of choice in crime that is further influenced by the social environment (Hoogenboezem and Hoogenboezem, 2005). The issue of police force efficiency has attracted a great deal of attention in many countries. The methodology used generally implies data envelopment analysis (DEA) and some improvements on this methodology. For instance, Thanassoulis (1995) and Drake and Simper (2002) analyse police forces in England and Wales. Sun (2002) and Wu et al. (2009) apply DEA procedures to study police precincts in Taiwan. Carrington et al. (1997) examine the efficiency of the New South Wales Police Service. Skogan (1976), Nyhan and Martin (1999) and Gorman and Ruggiero (2008) focus on police services of big cities, municipal governments and state police forces in the United States, respectively. Finally, in our scope of analysis, Diez-Ticio and Mancebon (2002) and García-Sánchez (2009) explore the efficiency of the Spanish National Police Services and Local Police forces, respectively.

3. Factors behind Criminality Rates Previous literature has stressed several drivers underlying the perpetration of crime and delinquency, which may be grouped into economic and social-demographic factors. The following sections will describe the influence of these factors on the obtaining of higher crime rates.

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3.1. Economic Factors Apparently, the existence of severe economic problems will increase the probability of committing crimes. Economic contexts with high unemployment rates, poverty and problems in the labour market are more prone to active criminal activity, as well as the appearance of alternative illegal activities, like drug-dealing. In these contexts, the economic model of crime fits adequately (Cornwell and Trumbull, 1994). This model suggests that an individual‟s participation in the criminal sector depends on the relative monetary return to illegal activities and the degree to which the criminal justice system is able to affect the probabilities of apprehension and punishment. Along this line, previous works have emphasized the role played by unemployment in an increase in crime rates. Changes in labour market structure are key intervening factors that influence changes in crime rates (Ousey and Kubrin, 2009). In this line, unemployment obliges people to search for alternative ways of obtaining financial resources and surviving. If it is linked to deprived areas, the increase in criminal activity could be especially notable. Consequently, when the opportunities to obtain economic returns in the legal sector diminish, people are expected to commit more crimes.

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Another economic factor underscored has to do with global wealth versus poverty. The percentage of persons living below the government-designated poverty line is a significant driver in the enhancement of delinquency (Ajagunna, 2006; Ousey and Kubrin, 2009). Other economic factors behind criminality are related to the percentage of rental units in the local housing stock and public housing units (Savolainen, 2005; Wu et al., 2009). Municipalities that score high in those percentages tend to be larger cities with a critical mass of socio-economically disadvantaged residents (Savolainen, 2005, p. 186). Moreover, changes in the economic context, shifting from industry to services sector in some areas, can create a mass of workers that may be difficult to reassign, thereby increasing the probabilities of enhancing social and economic conflicts, even with demonstrations and riots.

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3.2. Social-Demographic Factors The population, the percentage of young males, the lack of education, the family structure and immigration are usually mentioned as factors affecting crime rates. However, this influence is controversial and previous literature has not reached definitive conclusions on the influence of these potential drivers. Larger populations are characterised by the appearance of urban ghettos (Hagan and Palloni, 1999; Ousey and Kubrin, 2009) where people are more likely to be exposed to unemployment, poverty and sundry social ills associated with contexts of severe economic deprivation. Linked to a higher degree of urbanization (Wu et al., 2009), big cities display more diverse social problems, which finally influence delinquency. Previous studies have pointed out that young males commit most of the crimes (Corwell and Trumbull, 1994; Savolainen, 2005; Ousey and Kubrin, 2009). A firmly established criminological finding is that crime follows a distinctive age pattern with offending rates being highest among teens and young adults (Hirschi and Gottfreedson, 1983). Another wellestablished “crime-fact” is that males are involved in crime –especially violent crime- at significantly higher rates than females (Pastore and Maguire, 2008). Thus, the conjunction of age and gender is a relevant driver in criminality, showing that the proportion of young males in the population emerges as a strong positive correlate of violent crime. Furthermore, the lack of an adequate level of education can accentuate criminality, especially in deprived areas (Ajagunna, 2006; Ousey and Kubrin, 2009). In that context, unemployment rates are likely to increase, and, consequently, lower levels of education may increase overall levels of economic deprivation by driving up the supply of low-skilled labour and driving down the base wage among all low-skilled workers. The effects on wages and unemployment rates may increase the demand for public welfare services beyond the capacity of existing resources, which would exacerbate further the experience of economic deprivation (Ousey and Kubrin, 2009, p. 450). On the contrary, the average years of schooling are a positive force for community safety (Savolainen, 2005). In addition, the creation of important social networks strengthens informal social control and impedes crime. In this vein, it is suggested that more intact family structures and profamily cultural orientations would lead to less crime. Criminologists have long evidenced that areas with higher rates of single-parent families and higher divorce rates experience more crime, presumably because the breakdown in traditional family structures depletes social capital (Sampson and Groves, 1989; Land et al., 1990; Ousey and Kubrin, 2009).

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Finally, although there is a popular perception holding that immigration causes higher crime rates, an expanding literature reports that immigrants engage in less criminal activity than natives (Hagan and Palloni, 1999; Martinez, 2002; Savoilainen, 2005; Ousey and Kubrin, 2009). Initially, an immigrant population shows several features that link it to criminal activity, as shown above: in most nations, immigrants tend to concentrate in large cities and live in ethnically segregated and socio-economically disadvantaged neighbourhoods (Savolainen, 2005, p. 187); immigration usually increases the percentage of the population that is young and male; immigration can create population turnover and instability, which leads to more crime; also, immigration can elevate crime by increasing the share of the population with low educational attainment, marginal labour market skills, and poor employment prospects. On the other hand, despite these features, it is also argued that immigrants are a self-selected group with relatively high levels of achievement ambition and low criminal propensity (Butcher and Piehl, 2005), pursuing economic and educational opportunities that are not available in their home countries. In addition, they create social support in ethnic communities and have a more family-related cultural orientation which limits involvement in crime. Empirically, previous analyses have shown that positive features outweigh negative ones, so that immigrants are less criminally involved than the native population.

4. Methodology

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4.1. Aims and Scope The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of police effectiveness and other external factors, such as population, economic wealth, unemployment, immigration rate and young population, on crime rates in the Spanish context. Spain has witnessed a long period of economic development, which has attracted a great mass of immigrants and thereby has followed the patterns of western economies. This analysis is performed for each of the 52 provinces into which the territory of Spain is divided. Each province has a capital (generally with the same name as the province), with at least one important police department. Each department has a high degree of independence, being coordinated at the regional level. The period of analysis is from 2001 to 2006, thus obtaining 312 observations.

4.2. Variables In order to perform the analysis proposed, we select certain variables to reflect crimes (our dependent variable), police effectiveness (our independent variable) and other external factors influencing crime rates (control variables). As for crime rates, firstly, we analyse overall crimes in each year and for each province. Secondly we differentiate four categories of crimes in each year and for each province. The four types of crimes considered are: offences against property (fraud, money laundering, home theft, vehicle theft, violent theft, etc.), offences against the person (homicide, abortion, injury crimes, etc.), offences against personal liberty (unlawful imprisonment, kidnapping,

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I.-M. Garcia-Sanchez, L. Rodriguez-Dominguez and J. Parra-Dominguez

threats, torture, disclosure of secrets, etc.) and offences against public safety (fires, drug dealing, traffic crimes, crimes related public health, etc.). Police effectiveness will be measured through the ratio of total arrests to total crimes, considered overall and for each category. This measure has been widely employed in previous studies (Skogan, 1976; Cornwell and Trumbull, 1994; Prenzler and Lewis, 2005). Finally, we control for the influence of some environmental factors beyond the control of police departments:     

Population, gauged by number of inhabitants in each province; Economic wealth, using per capita income in each province; Unemployment, measured by the unemployment rate in each province; Immigration rate, measured through the rate of immigrants to total population in each province; Young population, measured by the youth index created by the Spanish Statistics Office (Instituto Nacional de Estadística).

4.3. Statistical Techniques Based on the variables selected to achieve the aims proposed, we have defined the following model (1), in which the amount of crimes is a function of police effectiveness and other environmental factors: Crimes = f (Police Effectiveness, Population, Economic Wealth, Unemployment, Immigration, Young Population)

[1]

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The model [1] can be empirically estimated by using equation [2]: Crimesi = β0 + β1PolicEfectivi + β2Populati + β3Wealthi + β4Unempi + β5Immigrati +β6YouthIndi + ∑µt + ε

[2]

i = 1…52 provinces, t = 2001…2006 in which: Crimesi reflects the number of crimes committed in the province i, PolicEfectivi measures the police effectiveness through the ratio of arrests to crimes in province i Populati is the total number of inhabitants in province i Wealthi represents the income per capita as a measure of economic wealth in province i Unempi is the rate of unemployed people in province i Immigrati is the proportion of immigrants in province i YouthIndi is the youth index elaborated by the Spanish Statistical Office, reflecting the young population in province i. ∑µt are temporal dummies, from 2001 to 2006. Firstly we take overall crimes as our dependent variables. Secondly, in order to specify the role played by each category of crime, we have run the model using the amount of crimes in each specific type of the following crimes: offences against property, offences against the

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person, offences against personal liberty and offences against public safety. In those cases, we have used the corresponding variable of police effectiveness in each specific type, instead of the overall police effectiveness, which is linked to total crimes. The corresponding descriptive statistics for all variables are given in Table 1, while correlations among variables are displayed in Table 2. As for correlations, some of them are specially high and significant, as would be expected beforehand, such as overall police effectiveness and police effectiveness for property crimes (0.923), overall crimes and overall arrested people (0.947), population and overall arrested people (0.897) and population and overall crimes (0.923).

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5. Results The results after running a multiple linear regression on the variables analysed are displayed in Table 3, for overall crimes committed. Police effectiveness shows a negative coefficient, for a confidence level of 99 per cent. Population, immigration and youth index display positive coefficients, significant at 1 per cent (p < 0.01). On the contrary, income per capita and unemployment rate do not seem to influence overall crimes, by providing non-significant coefficients. The explanatory power of the model is high, reaching 88.3 per cent of the dependent variable. Therefore, the results mainly suggest a negative impact of police effectiveness on the number of crimes committed, that is, a positive influence of police effectiveness in order to reduce and prevent crime. The criminal activity is also reinforced in large populations, with high rates of young people and immigrants. By specifying different categories of crimes, we obtain the findings exhibited in Table 4. Regarding the model which explains the perpetration of offences against property, identical patterns are maintained: a negative influence of police effectiveness (significant at 0.01), a positive impact of population, immigration and youth (also significant at 1 per cent) and a non-significant effect of economic variables (unemployment and income per capita). As for the model of offences against the person, police effectiveness negatively influences criminality (although it is less significant), while population and youth display positive coefficients (for a confidence level of 99 per cent). On the other hand, income per capita and unemployment exhibit a significant effect in this model, with a negative sign. Likewise, immigration does not seem to influence the perpetration of personal crimes.

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Table 1. Descriptive statistics

Overall Police Effectiveness

0.300

0.257

0.080

1.775

Standard deviation 0.210

Police Effectiveness: Offences against property

0.193

0.153

0.054

2.183

0.203

Police Effectiveness: Offences against the person

0.753

0.777

0.000

3.000

0.249

Police Effectiveness: Offences against personal liberty

0.659

0.635

0.151

4.000

0.288

Police Effectiveness: Offences against public safety

1.134

1.031

0.242

6.592

0.654

Overall Crimes

17004.712

6385.500

45.000

166870.000

27552.554

Offences against property

15332.304

5458.000

26.000

159598.000

25784.977

Offences against the person

800.612

418.000

0.000

10966.000

1246.339

Offences against personal liberty

154.596

86.000

2.000

1452.000

214.562

Offences against public safety

717.199

434.500

9.000

3935.000

754.882

Overall arrested people

3533.728

1700.000

50.000

30978.000

4835.352

Arrested people in offences against property

2086.833

886.500

29.000

21128.000

3311.120

Arrested people in offences against persons

597.590

290.000

0.000

8464.000

984.122

92.615

50.000

1.000

859.000

120.967

756.689

419.000

10.000

4145.000

814.606

Population

825919.80

562704.000

65488.000

6008183.000

1030399.569

Income per capita (€)

17844.721

17675.992

10493.774

31458.371

4103.114

0.012

0.010

0.000

0.046

0.009

Unemployment rate (%)

10.223

9.330

3.680

27.360

4.276

Youth index

92.274

87.874

52.021

218.053

31.505

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Mean

Arrested people in offences against personal liberty Arrested people in offences against public safety

Immigration rate

Median

Minimum

Maximum

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Overall Police Effectiveness Police Effectiveness: Offences against property Police Effectiveness: Offences against the person Police Effectiveness: Offences against personal liberty Police Effectiveness: Offences against public safety Overall Crimes

Youth index

Unempl rate

Immigrat rate

Income per capita

Population

Overall arrested people

Overall Crimes

Police Effectiv: Offences against public safety

Police Effectiv: Offences against personal liberty

Police Effectiv: Offences against the person

Overall Police Effectiv

Police Effectiv: Offences against property

Table 2. Bivariate correlations

1 .921(**)

1

.192(**)

.104

1

.386(**)

.323(**)

.296(**)

1

.273(**)

.074

.030

.017

1

-.274(**)

-.169(**)

-.036

-.142(*)

-.051

1

Overall arrested people

-.199(**)

-.104

.005

-.128(*)

-.021

.947(**)

1

Population

-.208(**)

-.107

-.008

-.118(*)

-.038

.923(**)

.897(**)

1

Income per capita

.114(*)

.192(**)

-.219(**)

.000

-.047

.213(**)

.181(**)

.246(**)

1

Immigration rate

.180(**)

.251(**)

.141(*)

.246(**)

-.081

.298(**)

.317(**)

.234(**)

.463(**)

1

-.190(**)

-.153(**)

-.045

-.124(*)

-.087

.042

.083

.051

-.558(**)

-.308(**)

1

-.009

.007

.014

.052

-.021

.197(**)

.234(**)

.109

-.240(**)

.151(**)

.391(**)

Unemployment rate Youth index

1

Table 3. Results for regression models. Overall crimes Independent and control variables Police effectiveness Population Income per capita Immigration rate Unemployment rate Youth index F Adjusted R-square

Dependent variable: overall crimes ***, significant at 0.01 ***, significant at 0.01; **, significant at 0.05; *, significant at 0.10

Standarised coefficients -.116 .860 .003 .139 -.023 .083 214.245*** 0.883

t -5.607*** 39.050*** .111 5.480*** -.835 3.627***

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Table 4. Results for regresión models. Specification by type of crime Dependent variables

Offences against property

Independent and control variables Police effectiveness Population Income per capita Immigration rate Unemployment rate Youth index F Adjusted R-squared

Standarised coefficients -.107 .866 .018 .148 -.014 .073

t -5.084*** 39.060*** .599 5.678*** -.508 3.164*** 205.637*** 0.879

Offences against persons Standarised coefficients -.061 .752 -.088 .066 -.081 .130

***, significant at 0.01; **, significant at 0.05; *, significant at 0.10

t -1.733* 21.369*** -1.699* 1.566 -1.775* 3.466*** 62.020*** 0.683

Offences against personal liberty Standarised t coefficients -.092 -4.148*** .869 37.515*** -.029 -.934 .132 4.742*** -.054 -1.818* .120 4.887*** 181.129*** 0.864

Offences against public safety Standarised t coefficients -.099 -2.690** .684 18.195*** -.001 -.022 .046 1.047 .241 5.018*** .151 3.765*** 50.431*** 0.636

The Relationship between Police Effectiveness and Crime Rates

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Concerning the model developed for offences against personal liberty, police effectiveness again shows a negative and strongly significant coefficient. Income per capita obtains a non-significant coefficient, whereas population, immigration and youth exhibit positive influences (significant at 1 per cent). Unemployment shows a rather marginal negative effect. Finally, in the model attempting to explain offences against public safety, police effectiveness also displays a negative coefficient, while population, unemployment and youth obtain positive coefficients, significant at 1 per cent. On the other hand, income per capita and immigration do not exhibit relevant influences from a statistical perspective. The models developed show high values of explanatory ability, ranging from 63.6 per cent to 87.9 per cent, which confirm the adequacy of the variables proposed.

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6. Discussion of Findings The findings obtained evidence that police effectiveness is an essential factor in cutting down crime, both considered overall and in each different category, in the Spanish context. The negative influence on the amount of crimes is a pattern exhibited in all models, with strongly significant coefficients. Consequently, our results confirm intuitive perception by public opinion and the arguments behind the economic model of crime, given that there is a deterrent effect of arrest in the individual‟s participation in crime (Cornwell and Trumbull, 1994). As for other external factors that might contribute to crime reduction, population also represents a driver in generating more criminal activity. The larger the population, the higher the amount of crimes committed, considered overall and by categories. Cities with a higher number of inhabitants (Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia and Seville, in Spain) usually develop ghettos with deprived areas and show more diversity and social conflicts, and thus they are more prone to criminality. These findings confirm theoretical arguments developed by Hagan and Palloni (1999) and Ousey and Kubrin (2009), in spite of the non-significant influence obtained by Savolainen (2005) and Wu et al. (2009), for Finland and Taiwan, respectively. Another clear effect from the findings obtained is that related to youth presence. Previous literature stresses that most crimes are committed by a young population. Our results confirm this argument for the Spanish context, thus adding evidence to earlier works in the same line but in different geographic contexts (Cornwell and Trumbull, 1994; Savolainen, 2005). Therefore, youth is a strong positive correlate of crime. Although many previous studies have found a negative effect of immigration on criminality (e.g. Savolainen, 2005; Ousey and Kubrin, 2009), a positive influence is detected in most of our analyses for Spain; only in the model which explains offences against the person is the effect is non-significant. The influence on property and personal liberty crimes especially stands out. In some papers in the criminological literature it is more typical to view immigrants as a population at risk of high offending (Tonry, 1997); also, a popular perception is that immigration causes higher crime rates (Ousey and Kubrin, 2009, p. 447). This finding can be justified by the fact that immigration may increase crime rates by raising the share of the population with a “crime-prone” demographic profile; for instance, offending rates are usually highest among young adults, and immigration increases the percentage of young population.

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The impact of economic variables is not conclusive enough in our study for the Spanish context. Income per capita, our measure of economic wealth, usually displays a nonsignificant effect on criminality, both in overall crimes and in specific categories of crimes. Only in the model which explains personal crimes is the influence marginally negative (i.e. the lower the economic wealth, the higher the activity in personal crimes). Thus, there does not seem to be an overall relationship between economic situation and criminality in the Spanish context. This finding is in accordance with Savolainen (2005) and Wu et al. (2009), who also obtain a non-significant influence of this variable and of unemployment. In our study, the coefficient of unemployment rate is rather erratic: it is negative and nonsignificant for overall, property and personal crimes; it is significantly negative for personal liberty crimes and positive for offences against public safety. In the latter category of crimes, unemployment typically leads to riots and demonstrations, which negatively affect public safety, thereby justifying the positive relationship between unemployment rate and that type of criminality. However, the majority non-significant effect leads us to make a rather prudent interpretation, considering it as a non-essential driver in most crimes. In short, our findings evidence the essential role played by policing activity in reducing and preventing crime. Also, we confirm that larger populations, with immigrants and young people, are especially prone to criminality. On the other hand, economic variables do not seem to influence criminal activity for the Spanish context.

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Conclusions Criminality seriously affects public safety and security, as well as societies‟ development. Determining the factors which influence criminality is a priority among governments, in order to reduce and prevent delinquency, which causes many dysfunctions and economic damage to their social contexts. In this line, empirical studies have attempted to identify what causes crime, so that politicians can design policy programs. In contrast, there is scarce evidence about the effect of police effectiveness on criminal outcomes. This chapter provides additional evidence about the role played by police effectiveness in reducing and preventing overall crime and different categories of crime, as well as the effect of other economic and socio-demographic factors on delinquency. The context chosen is Spain, more specifically, 52 Spanish police departments (one department for each of Spain‟s 52 provinces). After estimating some models which explain crimes with a high explanatory ability, we confirm intuitive perception, by showing a negative influence of police effectiveness on the amount of crimes. In addition, large populations, with high rates of young people and immigrants, are especially prone to delinquency. By differentiating several categories of crimes (offences against property, the person, personal liberty and public safety), the results remain unchanged in their main conclusions. Population, youth presence and immigration are relevant drivers of criminality, which are outweighed by police effectiveness. On the other hand, there does not seem to be an overall relationship between economic situation and criminality, for the Spanish context. Income per capita usually exhibits a non-significant effect on criminality, both in overall crimes and in specific categories of crimes, while the unemployment rate shows rather erratic results.

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To summarize, our findings highlight policing activity as a deterrent of criminality, as well as the positive incidence of population, immigration and youth on crimes. However, economic variables do not seem to influence criminal activity for the Spanish context.

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In: Crime: Causes, Types and Victims Editor: Alicia E. Hasselm, pp. 127-140

ISBN: 978-1-61728-931-6 © 2011 Nova Science Publishers, Inc.

Chapter 6

AN EXPLORATION OF CHILD EXPLOITATION IN A JUROR SIMULATION STUDY Julie L. Dempsey1, Joanna D. Pozzulo1,*, Evelyn Maeder1 and Roberta Sinclair2 1

2

Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario Canadian Police Centre for Missing and Exploited Children Ottawa, Ontario

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Abstract Mock jurors (N = 317) read a simulated trial transcript involving a case of internet luring with the intent of producing child pornography. This study examined the influence of victim characteristics, specifically, race of the victim (First Nations vs. Thai vs. Caucasian), gender of the victim (male vs. female), and age of the victim (8 vs. 12 years) on jurors‟ perceptions of the victim and defendant, as well as guilt ratings. Race, gender, and age of the victim were not found to significantly influence jurors‟ perceptions of the victim or defendant. Overall, juror‟s rated the victim more positively than the defendant. Victim characteristics were not found to influence guilt ratings of the defendant. Juror‟s assigned high guilt ratings across victim conditions. The data suggest that regardless of victim characteristics, the jurors‟ held the defendant responsible for his actions. Limitations and suggestions for future research are discussed.

Introduction The internet has long been a primary means of socialization for children and adolescents, and with the advent of social networking websites such as Facebook, Twitter, and MySpace, communication among and with youths has become even easier and more prevalent. One unfortunate consequence of this increased ease of communication is the rising rate of internet luring. Internet luring refers to the use of a computer to communicate with a child for the purposes of committing a sexual offence (McCune, 2006). The process begins with the *

E-mail address: [email protected]: Department of Psychology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, Ontario, K1S 5B6. (Corresponding author)

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predator establishing a friendship with the child, and culminates with a face-to-face meeting between child and predator (McCune, 2006). Canadian law has recognized this problem in a number of ways – first, by enacting new laws to directly address internet luring (s. 172.1 (1) of the Criminal Code), second, by adding internet luring and child pornography to the offences for which a National DNA Data Bank order can be made (Department of Justice, 2004), and third, by raising the age of consent from 14 to 16 years (s.150.1(1) of the Criminal Code) in 2008. Unfortunately, internet luring is still a widespread phenomenon. The current study is concerned with internet luring with the intent of producing child pornography. In 2007, Joshua Innes pled guilty to two counts of child internet luring, two counts of extortion and one count of distributing child pornography (R. v. Innes, 2007). Innes had posed as a 16-year-old girl using Messenger and encouraged a 13-year-old to make a video involving sexual activity, then threatened to distribute the video if the girl did not make another video. Innes also posed as a 17-year-old male in order to extort videos from a 14year-old girl. The sentencing judge, citing a number of aggravating factors (e.g., the offences targeted victims in their own homes, Innes had used a false identity, the luring was wellplanned and extensive), sentenced Innes to nine years in prison. Innes appealed this sentence (R. v. Innes, 2008) but was unsuccessful. Thus, Canadian courts have acknowledged the problem of internet luring, and specifically the problem of internet luring with the intent to make pornography. The United States shares this concern. A Youth Internet Safety Survey (2005) revealed that one in three internet users between the ages of 10 and 17 in the United States had been exposed to unwelcome sexual material, and one in seven had received unwelcome sexual solicitations (Wolak, Mitchell, & Finkelhor, 2006). Section 2251 of the U.S. Code states that “any person who employs, uses, persuades, induces, entices, or coerces any minor to engage in, or who has a minor assist any other person to engage in, or who transports any minor in interstate or foreign commerce, or in any Territory or Possession of the United States, with the intent that such minor engage in, any sexually explicit conduct for the purpose of producing any visual depiction of such conduct” is guilty of the crime of Sexual Exploitation of Children. Individual states, such as Colorado and New Jersey, have enacted internet luring laws. In 2007, the United States District Court for the district of Maine saw a case very similar to Alberta‟s Innes case of the same year (United States v. Polk, 2007). In this case, the defendant, 37-year-old Byron Polk, sexually solicited a 13-year-old girl by asking her to take explicit pictures, sending her videos of himself performing sexual acts, and initiating sexual exchanges with her despite her repeatedly informing him of her age. Polk argued that the 15year minimum for the crime of attempted production of child pornography (which falls under §2251 of the U.S. Code) was cruel and unusual punishment; the Court disagreed both in his initial case (United States v. Polk, 2007) and on appeal (United States v. Polk, 2008). From these examples, it is clear that internet luring for the purpose of creating child pornography is a widespread problem that both Canadian and U.S. courts are taking very seriously. The current study is concerned with how mock jurors perceive the victims and perpetrators of these crimes. Specifically, we were interested in whether victim characteristics, such as race, gender, and age, would influence juror perceptions of the victim and defendant of the crime of internet luring for child pornography.

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Victim Race Previous research has investigated the influence of victim race on juror decision-making. Though there is no literature in this area with regard to child pornography or internet luring, a number of studies have considered the influence of victim race in cases of sexual assault. These studies have demonstrated that mock jurors perceive rape as more serious when the victim is White as opposed to Black (e.g., Foley, Evancic, Karnik, King, & Parks, 1995; LaFree, Reskin, & Visher, 1985; Ugwuegbu, 1979). For example, Foley and colleagues (1995) found that mock jurors were less likely to view acquaintance rape as a crime if the victim was Black. The influence of victim race on juror decision-making in sexual assault trials may be a result of differential victim blaming. Willis (1992) found that mock jurors rated a Black victim of acquaintance rape as less credible and more responsible for the assault than a White victim. George and Martinez (2002) found that both Black and White female victims were blamed more if they were assaulted by men of other races. Their results suggest that interracial rapes (whether the victim is White or Black) lead to more victim blaming that in turn affects guilt and sentencing decisions in sexual assault trials. However, one Canadian study that examined the influence of victim race in a mock sexual assault trial did not find any differences between a Black victim and a White victim (Bagby, Parker, Rector & Kalemba, 1994). The above research describes the influence of victim race only in terms of Black victims and White victims. The current study will examine Asian and Aboriginal Canadian victims as well. Though there has been no juror/jury decision-making research on victim race in which Asian victims were compared to other races (other than in Brewer, 2004, in which Asian victims were included as a form of a control group in a model testing for effects of Black vs. other-race victims), there is some literature on stereotypes of Asians that may be relevant to the current research. One study that specifically examined stereotypes of Asian children (Chang & Demyan, 2007) found that these stereotypes include characteristics such as industrious, intelligent, introverted, and compliant. Only one Canadian study has examined the issue of victim race in terms of White victims compared to Aboriginal Canadian victims. Pfeifer & Ogloff (2003) demonstrated that White Canadians have stereotypes of Aboriginal Canadians that include unattractive, unintelligent, poor, dishonest, and irresponsible, arguing that stereotypes regarding Aboriginal Canadians in Canada may parallel attitudes toward Blacks in the United States. This same study also demonstrated that victims in a sexual assault trial were perceived differently based on race, such that defendants were viewed as less responsible for the assault when the victim was Aboriginal Canadian.

Perceptions of Child Victims as a Function of Race Some research has examined the influence of victim race on cases of child sexual abuse (e.g., Bottoms, Davis, & Epstein, 2004). Bottoms and colleagues (2004) found that though victim race did not influence ratings of credibility or verdict decisions, White victims were seen as less responsible for their abuse than Black or Latina victims. In addition, in a finding similar to that of George and Martinez (2002) regarding sexual assault, other-race abuse cases

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were assigned guilty verdicts less often than were same-race abuse cases. Finally, defendants were seen as less responsible for the abuse when victims were White as opposed to nonWhite. Though there is very little research on the influence of victim race in decisions regarding crimes against children, there is a body of literature that addresses the influence of victim race on media response to these crimes. One author (Wanzo, 2008) points out that missing White children better fit the traditional narrative of the Lost Girl (an idealized victim who symbolizes the risks facing children in North American society) than do minority children, resulting in the media‟s infatuation with stories such as the kidnapping of Elizabeth Smart. Elizabeth Smart was 14 years old when she was abducted from her bed in Salt Lake City. The media was infatuated with her disappearance, constantly providing coverage even in the absence of updates until she was recovered in 2003 (Wanzo, 2008). White victims such as Smart are portrayed as innocent and angelic, which raises public outrage as a result of these crimes. Stories such as the kidnapping of Alexis Patterson, a less affluent African-American girl from Milwaukee, are seen as more predictable and thus less worthy of media attention, and so “[Patterson] was a statistic and Smart a story” (Wanzo, 2008, p. 109). Wanzo (2008) argues that when minority child victims do receive media attention, it is often a result of shaming, in that these children are mentioned only to demonstrate bias in media coverage. A content analysis performed in Milwaukee in 2005 demonstrated that victim race may play a role in media involvement, but that this interacts with victim gender – White male victims may receive more media attention than minority male victims, but female victims receive more coverage overall, regardless of race (McBride, 2005). The media itself has commented on this disparity. Some journalists have pointed out the lack of concern for child victims of sex crimes and exploitation in Asia (BBC News, 2000). Other journalists have pointed out the media‟s obsession with missing White women, such as Laci Peterson, Natallee Holloway, and Chandra Levy, all young, White, middle-class women from the United States, while missing minority women are largely ignored in terms of coverage (O‟Connor, 2005). From this, we can infer that there is a great disparity in terms of media coverage as a function of victim race, and this may influence juror perceptions of the seriousness of these crimes. Will mock jurors‟ attitudes reflect those seemingly depicted in the media? Our study sought to answer this question by examining the influence of victim race in a case of internet luring for the purpose of making child pornography. Based on the above, we predict that mock jurors will view this particular crime to be more serious when the victim is White as opposed to Asian or Aboriginal Canadian. Based on the Lost Girl phenomenon, the lack of concern with exploitation of children in Asian countries, and other literature concerning victim race, we hypothesize that victims will be viewed as less responsible for the crime, defendants will be viewed as guilty more often, and sentences will be more severe when the victim is described as White.

Victim Gender Though there is little literature on the influence of victim gender in internet luring for child pornography cases specifically, the influence of victim gender has been examined in studies of child sexual abuse decisions. In general, the research shows that male victims of

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sexual assault are evaluated more negatively than female victims (see Davies & Rogers, 2006, for a review). Davies and Rogers (2006) contend that social stereotypes of masculinity perpetuate this negative perception of male victimization. Other research suggests that the use of gender stereotypes in making decisions regarding the responsibility of the victim may be moderated by the ambiguity of the circumstances of the case (Broussard & Wagner, 1988; Muller, Caldwell & Hunter, 1993). When circumstances are less ambiguous, participants are consciously responding in a politically correct fashion that ascribes equal credibility and responsibility to male and female victims. However, when more ambiguous circumstances are presented (e.g., the victim behaving in an encouraging manner), participants are less conscious about responding in a socially desirable manner and implicit gender stereotypes become more explicit. Some studies have indicated that victim gender does not affect victim credibility ratings in cases involving child sexual abuse (Bottoms & Goodman, 1994). However, in other instances, the influence of gender stereotypes regarding male adult victims of rape (i.e., the perception of male dominance in sexual situations) seem to transfer to perceptions of male child victims in juror/jury studies of child sexual abuse (Donnelly & Kenyon, 1996). For instance, participants have often believed an instance of child sexual abuse to be more plausible if the child victim was female rather than male (Drugge, 1992; Haegerich & Bottoms, 2000). One study has examined the influence of victim gender on perceptions of punishments for individuals who solicit children for sex on the internet (Wolfe & Higgins, 2008). Contrary to the findings above, this research did not demonstrate an effect of victim gender on decision-making in online solicitation cases. The current study deals with a case of online luring with the intent to make child pornography. Given that this crime is substantially different from child sexual abuse, and there is very little literature in the area of online solicitation, our research was highly exploratory in this domain and we did not make specific predictions with regards to victim gender.

Victim Age Several studies have investigated the influence of victim age on attitudes and judgments in child sexual abuse cases (e.g., Back & Lips, 1998; Davies & Rogers, 2009; Maynard & Wiederman, 1997; McCauley & Parker, 2001; Rogers & Davies, 2007). Back and Lips (1998) found that participants assigned more responsibility to 13-year-old victims for their abuse than to 6-year-old victims. Davies and Rogers (2009) found that 5-year-old victims were rated as more credible than were 15-year-old victims. As such, attributions of victim responsibility and assessments of victim truthfulness may be a function of the victim‟s age. Wolfe and Higgins (2008) studied the effect of victim age on decision-making in a case of online solicitation of a child for sex. This study, unlike the research described above, did not demonstrate an effect of victim age. The authors speculated that this may be due to perceived seriousness of online solicitation as compared to child sexual abuse. Specifically, they argued that respondents perceived the online solicitation as so serious that a ceiling effect resulted, eliminating the differences due to victim age. The authors further postulated that this may be a result of the media‟s increased attention to online solicitation of children,

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particularly that of Dateline‟s To Catch a Predator. This program, hosted by Chris Hansen, involves sting operations in which a predator is made to believe that he or she is communicating with a child online, but is in fact communicating with those involved in the show (Hansen, 2007). Once the predator arrives at the “child‟s” home, the ruse is revealed and the predator is arrested. Wolfe and Higgins (2008) argue that television shows such as these, while increasing public awareness, may also lead to unrealistic expectations concerning the crime (e.g., overestimate the frequency of internet luring). These expectations may result in increased punitiveness concerning internet luring, explaining the ceiling effects found in their study. As such, victim age may play a role in decision-making, though this might depend on the overall perceived seriousness of the crime. The current study involves a case of online solicitation for the purpose of producing child pornography. We predict that as in Wolfe and Higgins (2008), participants will view this as an extremely serious crime, and therefore we may see little to no influence of victim age.

The Current Study We sought to extend previous literature on perceptions of child victims by testing the effects of victim characteristics on a case of internet luring with the purpose of creating child pornography. We were specifically concerned with the influence of victim race, gender, and age on perceptions of guilt, as well as victim and defendant credibility.

Method

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Participants Three hundred and seventeen participants (218 women and 90 men, 9 participants did not indicate their sex) were recruited from the introductory participant pool and upper-level courses at a university in Eastern Ontario, Canada. Students in introductory psychology classes received course credit for participation. Upper-year students participated voluntarily. Participants (age range from 18 - 51 years, M = 20.83, SD = 4.31) were required to be at least 18-years of age to approximate juror eligible individuals in Ontario, Canada.

Design A 3 (victim race; Thai vs. First Nations vs. Caucasian) x 2 (victim gender; male vs. female) x 2 (victim age; 8 vs. 12 years-old) between subjects factorial design was used in the present study. The dependant variables included verdict, verdict confidence, and credibility appraisals of the victim and defendant.

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Materials Trial transcripts. Twelve versions of a simulated trial transcript detailing a criminal trial of child luring with the purpose of facilitating the commission of child pornography were created. The case dealt with a 25-year-old defendant who was accused of engaging in an inappropriate relationship with a young child over the internet. The defendant was brought to the attention of authorities by an RCMP (Royal Canadian Mounted Police – Federal agency) agent in the Child Sexual Exploitation Unit who monitors various internet sites for suspicious dialogue between users. The defendant was accused of asking the victim sexually explicit questions and sending the victim a web camera in order to obtain explicit photos/video of the victim. The defendant admits to having a friendship with the victim and maintains that nothing inappropriate ever occurred between the two. The transcript included opening and closing statements by the prosecution and defence, direct and cross-examinations of the victim, defendant, RCMP officer, and a character witness for the defence, as well as the judge‟s charge to the jury. Testimony presented was held constant across the 12 transcripts and varied only in terms of the victim‟s age, gender, and race.

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Credibility rating form. Participants were asked to respond to questions regarding the credibility of both the victim and the defendant. Specifically, participants were asked to rate on a 7-point scale (1 = Not at all to 7 = Very) the reliability, accuracy, believability, trustworthiness, honesty, confidence, and credibility of the victim. Participants also rated the reliability, believability, trustworthiness, honesty, and credibility of the defendant. Verdict and verdict confidence form. Participants were asked to rate the defendant‟s guilt on a continuous scale from 0% (Definitely Not Guilty) and 100% (Definitely Guilty). Participants were also asked to render a dichotomous verdict choice of guilty or not guilty. After each decision the participants were asked to rate their confidence in their verdict decision using an 11-point scale (0 = Not Confident to 11 = Absolutely Confident). Manipulation Check. Participants were asked to respond to five multiple-choice questions. Three of those questions directly assessed the mock jurors‟ recollection of the experimental variables (i.e., What was the race of the victim?; What was the gender of the victim?; How old was the victim?). The remaining two questions acted as filler questions (i.e., How old was the defendant?; What was the name of the chat site discussed at trial?).

Procedure Participants were tested in small groups of up to 10 in the laboratory. Each participant was randomly assigned to one of the 12 conditions and received a corresponding study package that included the transcript of the mock trial and the dependant measures. The participants were asked to complete the study package individually. After reading the trial transcript, participants completed the credibility rating forms. Next, participants completed the verdict and verdict confidence form followed by the manipulation check. Participation

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lasted approximately 40 minutes. Upon completion, participants were debriefed and thanked for their participation.

Results Preliminary Analyses The three questions that directly assessed the experimental variables were analyzed for accuracy, while the two filler items were discarded. Results indicated that mock jurors‟ accuracy rate was „moderate to high‟ depending on the variable in question. Eighty-five percent (n = 269) of mock jurors were able to correctly identify the victim‟s race, 96% (n = 303) were able to correctly identify the victim‟s gender, and 98% (n = 312) were able to correctly identify the victim‟s age. Eight participants failed two out of the three manipulation check questions and were removed from further analyses. The number of participants who were removed from analyses was relatively evenly distributed across the 12 conditions.

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Continuous Verdict The guilt rating scale was included in order to provide a more sensitive measure of defendant guilt as different jurors may have different thresholds before they will render a guilty verdict. The dichotomous verdict was included for ecological validity. The scores on the two measures were significantly correlated (r = -.66, p < .001). As a result, only the continuous guilt rating scale was analyzed. A 3 (victim race; Thai vs. First Nations vs. Caucasian) x 2 (victim gender; male vs. female) x 2 (victim age; 8 vs. 12 years old) between-subjects analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was conducted on mock jurors‟ guilt ratings for the defendant with mock juror gender entered as the covariate1. No significant main effects were found for victim race, F(2, 286) = 0.01, p = .99, partial η2 = .00, victim gender, F(1, 286) = .99, p = .32, partial η2 = .003, or victim age, F(1, 286) = 0.29, p = .59, partial η2 = .001. There were no significant two- or three-way interactions. Although victim characteristics did not affect guilt ratings, it is important to note that guilt ratings were high across all victim characteristic conditions, such that the mean guilt rating was 80%.

Continuous Verdict Confidence A 3 (victim race; Thai vs. First Nations vs. Caucasian) x 2 (victim gender; male vs. female) x 2 (victim age; 8 vs. 12 years old) between-subjects ANOVA2 was conducted on mock jurors‟ confidence in their guilt ratings for the defendant. No significant main effects were found for victim race, F(2, 296) = 1.16, p = .31, partial η2 = .008, victim gender, F(2, 1

Given that participant sex was neither balanced for the overall sample or counterbalanced across conditions, sex was controlled for when necessary in subsequent analyses. 2 An ANCOVA was not conducted because participant sex was no a significant predictor of verdict confidence, F(1, 298) = .61, p = .44, partial η2 = .002.

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296) = 1.81, p = .18, partial η2 = .006, or victim age, F(2, 296) = 0.06, p = .81, partial η2 = .000. There were no significant two- or three-way interactions.

Victim Credibility The overall credibility of the victim was evaluated by five questions that asked mock jurors to rate the victim on five different dimensions of overall credibility (i.e., reliability, believability, trustworthiness, honesty and credibility of testimony provided). Correlations between the five dependent variables are shown in Table 1. Given the significant correlations between the dependent variables a composite score for victim credibility ratings was calculated (Cronbach‟s  = .93). A 3 (victim race; Thai vs. First Nations vs. Caucasian) x 2 (victim gender; male vs. female) x 2 (victim age; 8 vs. 12 years old) between-subjects ANCOVA was conducted on mock jurors‟ credibility ratings of the victim with mock juror gender entered as the covariate. No significant main effects were found for victim race, F(1, 288) = 1.77, p = .17, partial η2 = .012, victim gender, F(1, 288) = 1.82, p = .18, partial η2 = .006, or victim age, F(1, 288) = .68, p = .41, partial η2 = .002, and there were no significant interactions. Table 1. Correlations between dependent variables (victim credibility) Variable

RB

Reliability (RB)

BL

TW

HS

CB

.70*

.69*

.60*

.74*

.74*

.69*

.77*

.74*

.76*

Believability (BL) Trustworthiness (TW) Honesty (HS)

.71*

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Credibility (CB) *Correlation is significant at the p < .01 level (2-tailed) Cronbach alpha = .93

Table 2. Correlations between dependent variables (defendant credibility) Variable

RB

Reliability (RB) Believability (BL) Trustworthiness (TW) Honesty (HS)

BL

TW

HS

CB

.64*

.64*

.55*

.62*

.73*

.65*

.63*

.68*

.67* .64*

Credibility (CB) *Correlation is significant at the p < .01 level (2-tailed) Cronbach alpha = .90

Defendant Credibility The overall credibility of the defendant was evaluated by five questions that asked mock jurors to rate the defendant on five different dimensions of overall credibility (i.e., reliability,

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believability, trustworthiness, honesty and credibility of testimony provided). Correlations between the five dependent variables are shown in Table 2. Given the significant correlations between the dependent variables a composite score for victim credibility ratings was calculated (Cronbach‟s  = .90). A 2 (victim age; 8 vs. 12 years old) × 2 (victim gender; male vs. female) × 3 (victim race; Thai vs. First Nations vs. Caucasian) between-subjects ANOVA3. No significant main effects were found for victim race, F(1, 297) = .65, p = .52, partial η2 = .004, victim gender, F(1, 297) = .02, p = .88, partial η2 = .000, or victim age, F(1, 297) = 2.05, p = .15, partial η2 = .007, and there were no significant interactions.

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Discussion The present study examined the effects of victim race, gender, and age on mock jurors‟ decisions in a case of internet luring with the purpose of creating child pornography. Of specific interest were the effects of these victim characteristics on perceptions of guilt, victim credibility, and defendant credibility. Victim characteristics were not found to affect guilt ratings. Victim race, gender, and age were not found to influence mock jurors‟ guilt ratings of the defendant. Overall, this finding is consistent with some previous research that also did not find an effect of victim characteristics on mock jurors‟ perceptions and guilt ratings (e.g., Bagby et al., 1994; Bottoms & Goodman, 1994; Bottoms et al., 2004;Wolfe & Higgins, 2008). Previous research suggests that victim characteristics tend to play a larger role in the decision making process when the circumstances surrounding the case are more ambiguous (Broussard & Wagner, 1988; Muller et al., 1993). However, when the case facts are less ambiguous participants are less likely to rely on extralegal variables, such as victim characteristics, during the decision making process. In the present study, the mean guilt rating across conditions was very high. This tendency for participants to rate the defendant as guilty may be suggestive that the participants found the case evidence more straightforward and definite. The case evidence presented did include the testimony of an RCMP officer who testified that there was evidence of the defendant‟s interactions with the child victim. As a result, participants may have relied more on the factual evidence of the case thus removing or lessening the need to consider victim characteristics during the decision making process. Victim characteristics were also not found to influence credibility ratings of either the victim or the defendant. Previous research examining the influence of victim characteristics on participants‟ perceptions of victim and defendant credibility is mixed. For instance, Willis (1992) found that victim race influenced mock-jurors‟ perceptions of a victim of acquaintance rape, with a White victim being viewed more positively compared to a Black victim. Yet, Bagby and colleagues (1994) found no effect of victim race on mock jurors‟ perceptions of victims of sexual assault. Research is also mixed with regards to victim gender. Davies and Rogers (2006) suggest that generally, male victims of sexual assault are evaluated more negatively than female victims. However, Bottoms and Goodman (1994) found that victim gender had no effect on victim credibility ratings in cases involving child sexual abuse. 3

An ANCOVA was not conducted because participant sex was not a significant predictor of defendant credibility, F(1, 299) = .10, p = .75, partial η2 = .000.

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Similar mixed findings are also found with research investigating victim age with some studies finding that younger victims are rated more credible compared to older victims (e.g., Back & Lips, 1998; Davies & Rogers, 2009); conversely, other studies have found no effect of victim age on credibility ratings (e.g., Wolfe & Higgins, 2008). Moreover, a study specifically examining on-line solicitation found no effect for victim age or gender on overall credibility ratings of the victim. One potential explanation for these mixed findings that has been proposed is that perceptions of the victim or defendant may be moderated by the seriousness or circumstances of the case (Broussard & Wagner, 1988; Muller et al., 1993). Thus, when participants view the crime as serious and the circumstances of the case are less ambiguous, participants are able to consciously respond in a politically correct fashion that ascribes equal credibility and responsibility to any victim or defendant regardless of specific victim characteristics. As discussed previously, the facts presented in the current study could be considered fairly concrete given the testimony of the RCMP officer and the perceived likelihood that there were records of the on-line relationship between the defendant and the victim. Moreover, previous research investigating on-line solicitation has indicated that participants view this type of crime as very serious (Wolfe & Higgins, 2008). Thus, it is possible that the null findings in this study may be the result of both the seriousness of the crime and case facts moderating the perceptions of the victim and the defendant.

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Limitations One limitation to this study was the strength of the victim manipulations. Analysis of the manipulation check questions indicated that numerous participants could not accurately recall the victim characteristics that were manipulated, specifically the victim race manipulation. The weakness of these manipulations may also account for the lack of significant findings with regard to these manipulations. These victim characteristics are extremely important to consider especially in cases of internet solicitation of children where little research has been completed. Future studies should consider stronger more salient manipulations of victim characteristics, perhaps by using photographs in combination with written transcript manipulations. Another possible limitation to this study concerns the ecological validity of juror simulation studies. First, the generalizability of the findings may be limited due to the use of undergraduate students as participants. Bornstein (1999) examined the issue of differences between verdict decisions made by undergraduates and a community sample in mock-trials. Results from this study indicated only small significant differences across samples. Based on these results, Bornstein concluded that use of students as mock jurors is not an issue of concern. A second concern is the type of medium used to present the trial information. Written transcripts rather than videotape has been criticized for producing less realistic results (e.g., Diamond, 1997). However, Bornstein (1999) suggests that written transcripts are just as effective as videotape or trial descriptions. Future research should consider using other forms to present trial evidence, which may also help to increase the saliency of certain experimental manipulations.

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Conclusions Overall the results from this study suggest that participants regard on-line solicitation of child victims to be a serious crime. As a result, participants are less influenced by extralegal factors, such as victim characteristics, during the decision-making process. Given the continuing problem of Internet luring and solicitation, further research is required to explore potential factors that may influence jurors such as the type of Internet crime, as well as other potential victim or defendant characteristics.

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References Asia‟s child sex victims ignored (2000, September 15). BBC News. Retrieved from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/926853.stm. Back, S. & Lips, H. M. (1998). Child sexual abuse: Victim age, victim gender, and observer gender as factors contributing to attributions of responsibility. Child Abuse and Neglect, 22(12), 1239-1252. Bagby, R. M., Parker, J. D., Rector, N. A. & Kalemba, V. (1994). Racial prejudice in the canadian legal system: Juror decisions in a simulated rape trial. Law and Human Behavior, 18(3), 339-350. Bornstein, B. H. (1999). The ecological validity of jury simulations: Is the jury still out? Law and Human Behavior, 23(1), 75-91. Bottoms, B. L., Davis, S. L. & Epstein, M. A. (2004). Effects of victim and defendant race on jurors' decisions in child sexual abuse cases. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 34(1), 1-33. Bottoms, B. L. & Goodman, G. S. (1994). Perceptions of children's credibility in sexual assault cases. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 24(8), 702-732. Brewer, T. W. (2004). Race and jurors' receptivity to mitigation in capital cases: The effect of jurors', defendants', and victims' race in combination. Law and Human Behavior, 28(5), 529-545. Broussard, S. D. & Wagner, W. G. (1988). Child sexual abuse: Who is to blame? Child Abuse and Neglect, 12(4), 563-569. Chang, D. F. & Demyan, A. L. (2007). Teachers' stereotypes of Asian, Black, and White students. School Psychology Quarterly, 22(2), 91-114. Criminal Code, R.S.C. 1985, c.19, s.150.1(1). Criminal Code, R.S.C. 1985, c.19, s.172.1(1). Davies, M. & Rogers, P. (2006). Perceptions of male victims in depicted sexual assaults: A review of the literature. Aggression and Violent Behavior: A Review Journal, 11(4), 367377. Davies, M. & Rogers, P. (2009). Perceptions of blame and credibility toward victims of childhood sexual abuse: Differences across victim age, victim-perpetrator relationship, and respondent gender in a depicted case. Journal of Child Sexual Abuse, 18(1), 78-92. Department of Justice (2004). Child pornography and internet luring target of DNA data bank reforms. Retrieved from http://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/news-nouv/nr-cp/2004/ doc_31254.html.

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Diamond, S. S. (1997). Illuminations and shadows from jury simulations. Law and Human Behavior, 21(5), 561-571. Donnelly, D. A. & Kenyon, S. (1996). "Honey, we don't do men": Gender stereotypes and the provision of services to sexually assaulted males. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 11(3), 441-448. Drugge, J. E. (1992). Perceptions of child sexual assault: The effects of victim and offender characteristics and behaviour. Journal of Offender Rehabilitation, 18(3-4), 141-165. Foley, L. A., Evancic, C., Karnik, K., King, J. & Parks, A. (1995). Date rape: Effects of race of assailant and victim and gender of subjects on perceptions. The Journal of Black Psychology, 21(1), 6-18. George, W. H. & Martínez, L. J. (2002). Victim blaming in rape: Effects of victim and perpetrator race, type of rape, and participant racism. Psychology of Women Quarterly, 26(2), 110-119. Haegerich, T. M. & Bottoms, B. L. (2000). Empathy and jurors' decisions in patricide trials involving child sexual assault allegations. Law and Human Behavior, 24(4), 421-448. Hansen, C. (2007). To catch a predator: Protecting your kids from online enemies already in your home. Penguin Group: New York, NY. Lafree, G. D., Reskin, B. F. & Visher, C. A. (1985). Jurors' responses to victims' behavior and legal issues in sexual assault trials. Social Problems, 32(4), 389-407. Maynard, C. & Wiederman, M. (1997). Undergraduate students' perceptions of child sexual abuse: Effects of age, sex, and gender-role attitudes. Child Abuse & Neglect, 21(9), 833844. McBride, J. (2005). Covering crime: How the media covers violence. Wisconsin Interest, 3137. McCauley, M. R. & Parker, J. F. (2001). When will a child be believed? the impact of the victim's age and juror's gender on children's credibility and verdict in a sexual-abuse case. Child Abuse and Neglect, 25(4), 523-539. McCune, M. M. (2006). Virtual lollipops and lost puppies: How far can states go to protect minors through the use of internet luring laws? Common Law Conspectus, 14, 503-542. Muller, R. T., Caldwell, R. A. & Hunter, J. E. (1993). Child provocativeness and gender as factors contributing to the blaming of victims of physical child abuse. Child Abuse & Neglect, 17(2), 249-260. O‟Connor, A. (2005, August 5). Not only Natalee is missing. Los Angeles Times, E1. Pfeifer, J. E. & Ogloff, J. R. P. (2003). Mock juror ratings of guilt in Canada: Modern racism and ethnic heritage. Social Behavior and Personality, 31(3), 301-312. R. v. Innes (2007), A. J. No. 964. R. v. Innes (2008), A. J. No. 346 . Rogers, P. & Davies, M. (2007). Perceptions of victims and perpetrators in a depicted child sexual abuse case: Gender and age factors. Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 22(5), 566584. Title 18, U.S. Code, section 2251, 2009 edition. Ugwuegbu, D. C. (1979). Racial and evidential factors in juror attribution of legal responsibility. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 15(2), 133-146. United States v. Polk (2007), 508 F. Supp. 2d 89. United States v. Polk (2008) U.S. App. LEXIS 23074 (1st Cir.).

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Wanzo, R. (2008). The era of lost (white) girls: On body and event. Differences, 19(2), 99126. Willis, C. E. (1992). The effect of sex role stereotype, victim and defendant race, and prior relationship on rape culpability attributions. Sex Roles, 26(5-6), 213-226. Wolak, J., Mitchell, K. & Finkelhor, D. (2006). Online victimization of youth: Five years later. Alexandria, VA: National Center for Missing & Exploited Children. Wolfe, S. E. & Higgins, G. E. (2008). College students' punishment perceptions of online solicitation of children for sex. American Journal of Criminal Justice, 33(2), 193-208.

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Chapter 7

JURORS’ PERCEPTIONS OF JUVENILE OFFENDERS TRIED IN ADULT CRIMINAL COURT Margaret C. Stevenson*,1, Cynthia J. Najdowski2, Bette L. Bottoms2, Katlyn M. Sorenson,1 and Sylvia P. Perry2 1

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2

The University of Evansville The University of Illinois at Chicago

Despite a reduction in juvenile arrests (Snyder, 2006), the 1990s witnessed a growing “get tough” attitude toward juvenile crime, exemplified by an increase in juvenile waiver statutes that facilitate the transfer of juveniles from family court into adult criminal court (Reppucci, Michel, & Kostelnik, 2009). Once in adult court, cases involving juveniles are decided by jurors rather than by family or juvenile court judges. It has thus become important to understand factors that influence jurors’ perceptions of juvenile defendants tried in adult court. In this paper, we review existing research on factors that affect perceptions of juveniles. We first consider the influence of juvenile characteristics (i.e., race, socioeconomic status, age, history of maltreatment, gender, intellectual disability, and tendency to falsely confess), followed by juror factors (i.e., juror gender and stereotypes about juveniles), and, finally, courtroom and trial factors (i.e., attorney tactics to induce empathy for and stereotypes about juvenile defendants and jury deliberation). To preview, the research we review typically employs a mock trial paradigm in which adult participants play the role of jurors by considering a criminal case involving a juvenile defendant who is being tried in adult criminal court. The case is typically presented via summarized written scenarios or trial transcripts. Mock jurors render a verdict (sometimes individually and sometimes after deliberating within a jury) and make other judgments about the case (e.g., the extent to which a defendant is credible or responsible for an alleged crime). This methodology allows researchers to have the control necessary to understand the causal influence of certain factors (e.g., defendant age or gender) on case judgments while all other factors remain constant, which is otherwise impossible when passively examining actual *

E-mail address: [email protected]; U.S. mail: University of Evansville, Department of Psychology, 1800 Lincoln Ave., Evansville, IN 47722. (Corresponding author)

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trials. Although highly controlled laboratory experiments run the risk of artificiality (e.g., Diamond, 1997), researchers often attempt to combat this risk by employing realistic case materials.

Juvenile Offender Characteristics

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Race/Ethnicity Consistent with established theories of stereotyping and racism, especially aversive racism (Gaertner & Dovidio, 1986), numerous studies have shown that jurors render harsher sentences for African American than White adult offenders (for a meta-analytic review, see Sweeney & Haney, 1992). Do similar racial biases manifest toward juveniles tried in adult court? To test this, Scott, Reppucci, Antonishak, and DeGennaro (2006) asked community members to watch a video clip depicting an armed robbery of a convenience store involving a masked perpetrator. They were next shown a separate picture of the alleged masked perpetrator: a juvenile portrayed as either White or Black. Juvenile race did not affect case judgments. It is possible that, in the context of this experiment, the photo of a Black youth raised jurors’ awareness of race, and, subsequently, their motivation to control racial prejudice. To explore this possibility, Stevenson and Bottoms (2009) examined non-Black mock jurors’ judgments in a case involving a Black or White juvenile accused of robbing and murdering a Black or White elderly man. By embedding race of defendant with other demographic characteristics (i.e., gender, age), participants noticed race, yet did not become overly suspicious that the experiment was studying race. Men, but not women, voted guilty more often when the juvenile defendant was Black than White and when the victim was White than Black. This is consistent with research illustrating that men, on average, tend to score higher on measures of explicit racism than do women (Ekehammar, Akrami, & Araya, 2003). In a new line of research, Stevenson and colleagues (2010) explored the influence of a juvenile defendant’s race on non-Black jurors’ deliberations when they express a verdict preference that differs from other jurors’ verdict preferences. This situation that many jurors inevitably encounter in real cases was simulated via a computer interface. That is, participants were led to believe that they were deliberating with other jurors online and that all other jurors had voted the opposite of them (i.e., guilty if they voted innocent, and vice versa). Stevenson et al. experimentally manipulated defendant and victim race (Black versus White) and found evidence that jurors were less likely to conform (i.e., change their verdict from guilty to innocent, or vice versa) and more confident in their verdict when the defendant was Black than White and when the victim was Black than White. Why? Ironically, people are more confident in their decisions when they know less rather than more information, probably because they have fewer plausible alternatives to consider (e.g., Levin, Chapman, & Johnson, 1988). Non-Black participants in this study probably felt as if they had less individuating information about a defendant or victim who was Black (an out-group member) rather than White. In support, people consider out-group members as more similar to one another than they really are and more similar to one another than in-group members (e.g., Quattrone, 1986).

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Socioeconomic Status Because racial bias appears to manifest in cases involving minority juvenile offenders, it is possible that similar biases might lead to discriminatory treatment against low socioeconomic status (SES) juvenile offenders. In fact, mock jury research shows that a lowSES adult defendant (as compared to middle- or high-SES defendants) is more likely to be perceived as a “typical criminal” and convicted (e.g., Ellis & McDonald, 2001). To test whether this bias affects juvenile defendants, Sorenson and Stevenson (2010) manipulated the SES of a juvenile defendant (low, middle, or high) in the context of an ambiguous robbery/murder vignette. Participants were more likely to convict the juvenile defendant if he was described as being of low SES than either middle or high SES. Further, participants were more likely to believe that the low SES juvenile was a cold and calculating superpredator, as compared to the middle/high SES juvenile—a belief that statistically explained the effect of SES on guilt judgments. Future research should examine the potential for bias against low SES juvenile offenders in the context of other types of crime (e.g., rape, negligent homicide).

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Age That jurors perceive younger versus older juvenile offenders differently is a wellestablished finding. Jurors tend to view younger juvenile offenders as less competent (Ghetti & Redlich, 2001), less culpable (Scott, Reppucci, Antonishak, & DeGennaro, 2006), and less responsible than older juvenile offenders (Ghetti & Redlich, 2001). In turn, jurors assign shorter sentences and are less likely to recommend adult court to younger compared to older juvenile offenders (Nunez, Dahl, Tang, & Jensen, 2007; Scott et al., 2006). Less research, however, has explored whether jurors’ case judgments are influenced by whether the offender is a juvenile versus an adult. In one of the first studies to test this possibility (also described above), Scott et al. (2006) instructed mock jurors to watch a video clip of an armed robbery (in which the offender was wearing a ski mask). Participants were led to believe the defendant was 12, 15, or 20 years old. Although jurors perceived the 12- and 15-year-old defendants to be no different in psychosocial maturity (and less mature than the 20-year-old defendant), they perceived only the 12-year-old (but not the 15 year old) to be less responsible for his crime than the adult defendant. These findings suggest that, under certain circumstances, jurors may view older juvenile offenders similarly to adult offenders. Perry and Stevenson (2010) found further support for this possibility. When offender age was manipulated between participants (i.e., the defendant was either 15 or 35 years old), mock jurors thought the juvenile defendant was more likely to be rehabilitated than the adult defendant, but they perceived the juvenile as equally responsible for his crime as the adult. Thus, although jurors may distinguish between younger and older juvenile offenders, they may sometimes view older juveniles similarly to adults (Perry & Stevenson, 2010; Scott et al., 2006).

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Abuse History Due to the well-documented link between child maltreatment and juvenile delinquency (e.g., Smith & Thornberry, 1995; Widom & Maxfield, 2001; Widom & Wilson, 2009), it is possible that jurors might incorrectly use a history of abuse against juveniles, interpreting it as evidence that the juvenile will commit future crimes (Stevenson, 2009). Yet research shows that mock jurors are generally more lenient toward physically abused than nonabused juvenile defendants in murder cases, particularly when the juvenile kills the supposed abuser, presumably in self-defense (Nunez, Dahl, Tang, & Jensen, 2007; Stalans & Henry, 1994). To explore whether jurors also perceive abused juveniles more favorably than nonabused juveniles when self-defense is not a plausible explanation for a crime, Najdowski, Bottoms, and Vargas (2009) asked mock jurors to read four vignettes describing a 16-year-old girl as unambiguously guilty of shoplifting, selling drugs near a school, aggravated assault/murder of a peer, and murder committed in self-defense after a fight with her father. The juvenile was also described as having either no known abuse history or a history of neglect and physical and sexual abuse at the hands of her father. The abused juvenile was considered less responsible for the crime, less “bad,” and more amenable to rehabilitation than the nonabused juvenile in the self-defense murder case, but not in the other three cases. The only significant effect of abuse in the other three cases was one effect in the aggravated assault/murder case, which involved no self-defense. In that case, jurors perceived the abused juvenile as less amenable to rehabilitation than the nonabused juvenile. These results suggest that jurors are not generally sympathetic to juveniles who were abused; instead, they use past abuse as mitigating evidence only when it can be interpreted as motivation for perpetrating a crime (i.e., self-defense). In other cases, abuse might even be used as an aggravating factor. In fact, Stevenson, Bottoms, and Diamond (2010) coded jurors’ deliberation comments during the death penalty sentencing phase and found that jurors were more likely to discuss an adult defendant’s history of being abused as a child in arguments favoring a death sentence than in arguments favoring a life sentence.

Gender There is mixed evidence regarding the effect of juvenile gender on jurors’ case judgments. For instance, Haegerich and Bottoms (2000) experimentally manipulated juvenile defendant gender in the context of a vignette depicting a teenager alleged to have murdered his/her father in self-defense because of years of sexual abuse perpetrated by the father. Jurors were more likely to believe that the crime had been committed in self-defense when the defendant was a girl rather than a boy. Jurors were also less likely to make negative, internal dispositional attributions (i.e., that the juvenile was a bad person) when the defendant was a girl than a boy. Even so, juvenile gender did not significantly affect key case judgments such as verdict. In another study involving alleged murder, Nunez and colleagues (2007) found no main effects of juvenile defendant gender on mock jurors’ preferences for whether the juvenile should be tried in juvenile or adult court, but instead, complex interactions of juvenile gender and case factors. Specifically, jurors were more likely to recommend juvenile court for a girl offender if she was younger, abused, or had murdered her father than if she was older,

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nonabused, or had murdered her neighbor. Jurors’ recommendations for a boy offender were more nuanced, however, with abuse history mitigating judgments only for an older boy or a boy who murdered his father (the abuser). Although there is little evidence that juvenile defendant gender has direct effects on jurors’ perceptions and case judgments, theoretically, jurors might be more sympathetic and lenient toward girl than boy offenders due to stereotypes that girls are less aggressive than boys (Deaux & Lewis, 1984), and also because girls commit less crime and less violent crime than boys (Snyder, 2006). Nunez (2007), however, theorized that jurors might perceive a girl who committed a violent crime as violating gender norms, and thus, particularly aggressive and deviant. Thus, more research is necessary to examine the effects of this important variable in the context of different crimes, particularly those in which self-defense is not a possible explanation for the crime.

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Intellectual Disability Juvenile offenders are disproportionately likely to be intellectually disabled (i.e., mentally retarded) (Kazdin, 2000), perhaps in part because disabled juveniles have impaired psychosocial and decision-making capacities. Even though these impairments diminish legal culpability (e.g., Atkins v. Virginia, 2002), intellectual disability does not usually prevent juveniles from being transferred from juvenile court to adult court. To determine whether jurors’ perceptions and judgments are influenced by juveniles’ intellectual disability, Najdowski, Bottoms, and Vargas (2009) varied the disability status of the juvenile defendant in the study of abuse history described previously. Specifically, they portrayed the juvenile as either “developmentally delayed, functioning in the mild range of mental retardation” or “of average intelligence.” Overall, participants perceived a disabled juvenile as less “bad” and less responsible than a nondisabled juvenile, regardless of the severity of the crime she committed. Although this could have implications for jurors’ sentencing judgments in cases involving disabled juveniles, other studies in which a juvenile’s guilt was ambiguous revealed that jurors perceived a disabled juvenile as less guilty and less responsible only when she was accused of a fairly non-serious offense (i.e., a drug offense), not when accused of more serious offenses (i.e., assault, murder) (Najdowski, Bottoms, & Vargas, 2009, Study 2; Najdowski, Bottoms, Vargas, & Cummens, 2009). Perhaps jurors simply do not distinguish between disabled and nondisabled juveniles when deciding how likely it is that they committed a serious crime like murder. Alternatively, it is possible that jurors’ judgments were not influenced by disability status because the alleged crime described in those studies was not a very complex one (i.e., the victim was drunk and unable to defend himself, the juvenile lived with the victim and had easy access to him). Future research might examine whether a juvenile’s disability status influences jurors’ judgments in cases involving more complicated crimes, which require greater cognitive abilities to perpetrate.

Tendency to Falsely Confess In contrast to voluntary confessions, coerced false confessions occur when suspects are induced through coercive interrogation tactics to confess to a crime they did not commit.

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Mock jurors are biased to perceive confessions as true, and they convict adults who confess under coercion just as often as those who confess voluntarily (for review, see Kassin & Gudjonsson, 2004). Because juvenile suspects are at substantial risk for falsely confessing to crimes, particularly if they are young or intellectually disabled (for review, see Redlich & Kassin, 2009), it is important to understand how jurors are influenced by juveniles’ false confessions. Redlich, Quas, and Ghetti (2008) were the first to examine this issue in a mock trial involving a juvenile accused of murdering a toddler. Even though the juvenile denied allegations over 40 times before eventually admitting guilt, jurors’ perceptions of the voluntariness (of lack thereof) of the juvenile’s confession did not influence their verdicts. Jurors who thought the juvenile did not understand the interrogation or that the police were unfair were, however, less likely to vote guilty than others. Extending this research, in the aforementioned studies in which the juvenile was described as either intellectually disabled or not, Najdowski and colleagues (Najdowski, Bottoms, & Vargas, 2009; Najdowski, Bottoms, Vargas, & Cummens, 2009) examined mock jurors’ reactions to a girl defendant who was portrayed as having either (a) maintained her innocence during police questioning (no confession), (b) confessed under coercion but later recanted (coerced confession), or (c) immediately confessed but later recanted (voluntary confession). Najdowski, Bottoms, Vargas, and Cummens (2009) found that jurors perceived a juvenile who confessed voluntarily as significantly more guilty than a juvenile who confessed under coercion or never confessed, with jurors reacting to the latter two conditions similarly. Thus, in contrast to prior research suggesting that jurors do not discount adults’ coerced confessions, jurors do discount juveniles’ coerced confessions. This appears to be because coercive circumstances cause jurors to realize that juvenile defendants are suggestible and to doubt the truthfulness of their confessions. Although Najdowski, Bottoms, and Vargas (2009) showed that jurors’ discounted a juvenile’s coerced confession when the juvenile was disabled but not when she was of average intelligence, Najdowski, Bottoms, Vargas, and Cummens (2009) found that jurors discounted a juvenile’s coerced confession regardless of her disability status. Perhaps jurors in the former study, which used only written trial materials, did not recognize that the young juvenile defendant was suggestible unless she was also intellectually disabled. In contrast, jurors in the latter study might have been more aware of the juvenile’s suggestibility because more ecologically valid materials were used, including more detailed case scenarios, videotaped testimony, and actual jury instructions. Future research should examine what conditions are necessary and sufficient to highlight juvenile defendants’ potential suggestibility when jurors evaluate their confessions.

Juror Factors Courts have long recognized that jurors’ judgments can be influenced by different attitudes, beliefs, and life experiences. Next, we review juror factors that might influence perceptions of juvenile offenders.

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Juror Gender

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In general, women render more pro-child-victim judgments (e.g., guilty verdicts) than men in child sexual and physical abuse cases (see Bottoms, Golding, Stevenson, Wiley, & Wozniak, 2006, for a review), partly because women have greater empathy for and more positive attitudes toward children (Bottoms, 1993). Do women’s pro-child-victim tendencies translate into pro-child-offender tendencies? Haegerich and Bottoms’ (2000) research suggests that it does: In the study described above involving a juvenile defendant accused of killing his/her abusive father in self-defense after years of alleged sexual abuse, women rendered fewer guilt judgments and rated the juvenile as more credible than did men. Haegerich and Bottoms’ findings might simply reflect gender differences in reaction to the child sexual abuse allegations, with women more likely to believe them and therefore more likely to believe that the murder was committed in self-defense. Studies that do not involve allegations of child sexual abuse, however, also provide evidence of a general gender difference in reactions to juvenile defendants. For example, although Stevenson and Bottoms (2009) found no pervasive gender differences in jurors’ reactions toward a juvenile accused of murder, Stalans and Henry (1994) showed that women were less likely than men to favor waiving a juvenile’s case to adult court and that women supported shorter sentences. Crosby, Britner, Jodl, and Portwood (1995) also demonstrated that women favored less severe sentences for juveniles than men. Finally, Redlich and colleagues found that, compared to men, women considered a juvenile defendant as less likely to have committed a crime (Redlich, Ghetti, & Quas, 2008) and as having less understanding of criminal interrogation situations (Redlich, Quas, & Ghetti, 2008). Women also perceived juvenile interrogations as less fair and the police who conducted them as more manipulative (Redlich, Quas, & Ghetti, 2008). Thus, although women’s and men’s case judgments appear to be more similar than different, when differences do emerge, women are generally more pro-juvenile defendant than men.

Jurors’ Stereotypes about Juvenile Offenders Although some research suggests that the general public endorses a punitive approach to juvenile crime (Levesque, 1996), other research demonstrates a public preference for rehabilitating juvenile offenders (e.g., Moon, Sundt, Cullen, & Wright, 2000; Nagin, Piquero, Scott, & Steinberg, 2006). Haegerich and Bottoms (2004) identified two different stereotypes held about juvenile offenders—that juveniles are either (a) cold and calculating “Superpredators” or (b) relatively innocuous “Wayward Youths.” They also found that although people are aware of both stereotypes, they vary in the extent to which they endorse one versus the other. Those who endorse the Superpredator stereotype believe that juvenile offenders are mature, cold, cruel, and not amenable to rehabilitation, whereas those who endorse the Wayward Youth stereotype believe that juvenile offenders are immature youth who can and should be rehabilitated rather than punished. Although fewer participants endorsed the Superpredator than Wayward Youth stereotype, they still generally overestimated the amount and severity of juvenile crime. Further, endorsement of juvenile offender stereotypes translates into biased juror decisions: In a mock trial involving a juvenile accused of robbery and murder, jurors who endorsed the Superpredator stereotype rendered

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more severe case judgments (e.g., more guilty verdicts, lengthier sentences) than did jurors who endorsed the Wayward Youth stereotype.

Courtroom and Trial Factors: Attorneys’ Tactics and Jury Deliberation

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Attorneys’ Tactics: Empathy Induction and Stereotype Activation Can attorneys shape jurors’ reactions toward juvenile defendants? In their previously described research on jurors’ judgments in a case involving a juvenile accused of killing his/her abusive father, Haegerich and Bottoms (2000) investigated whether attorneys can influence case outcomes by creating a compelling empathic atmosphere toward a juvenile offender. In one condition of their study, the defense attorney used the opening and closing statements to ask jurors to take the perspective of the juvenile defendant and to think of how they would be thinking and feeling if they were the defendant. Compared to jurors in the control group (i.e., who received no such empathy-inducing instructions), jurors in this empathy-inducing condition were less likely to convict the juvenile, considered the juvenile to be less responsible for the murder, and perceived the child sexual abuse claim as more of a mitigating factor in the killing. Women mock jurors were more lenient toward the juvenile defendant overall, relative to men, and were more influenced by the empathy induction. In a separate study, Haegerich and Bottoms (2004) tested whether attorneys could activate stereotypes about juveniles (i.e., Superpredator vs. Wayward Youth) in their opening and closing statements in the context of a mock trial involving a juvenile defendant accused of robbery/murder. In one condition, the prosecutor argued that the defendant was a Superpredator who could not be rehabilitated. In the other condition, the defense attorney argued that the defendant was a Wayward Youth who could be rehabilitated. In the control condition, attorneys mentioned neither stereotype. As expected, jurors in the Superpredator condition convicted the juvenile more often and recommended lengthier sentences than did jurors who were in the Wayward Youth condition or jurors in the control condition. Thus, research suggests that attorneys can shape jurors’ reactions to juvenile offenders tried in adult court—an interesting finding in light of the fact that in these studies, as in actual trials, jurors were specifically instructed that attorneys’ opening statements and closing statements are not evidence and should not unduly influence case outcomes. Future research should test the effectiveness of courtroom procedures, such as more extensive jury instructions warning that attorneys’ statements can bias decision making, in diminishing the biasing influence of attorneys’ statements.

Jury Deliberation Of course, a juror’s individual verdict preference does not always mirror the jury’s final decision after jurors have deliberated together in a group (e.g., Bray & Noble, 1978; Davis, Spitzer, Nagao, & Stasser, 1978). Jurors might exhibit a general leniency bias: a welldocumented overall trend for jurors’ judgments to be more lenient after deliberation than before deliberation because deliberation highlights the legal standard of reasonable doubt.

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Further, as noted by Haegerich and Bottoms (2004), jurors’ pre-deliberation stereotypes could be minimized to the extent that jurors attempt to control their biases and avoid applying a stereotype—a desire that may be heightened during group deliberation. In contrast, maximization could occur due to social pressures from other jurors to conform and also possibly due to strengthened personal acceptance of attitudes as a result of perceived group consensus. Alternatively, deliberation might not affect the extent to which jurors’ stereotypes influence decisions. Haegerich and Bottoms (2004) found support for the last hypothesis: Jurors’ postdeliberation judgments simply reflected the average pre-deliberation verdict preference of the individual jurors. This provides evidence relevant to a continued debate in the field of psycholegal research regarding the ecological validity of mock jury research without deliberation (Diamond, 1997). This study is consistent with other research indicating that juror and jury judgments are generally similar in cases involving adult defendants (see Devine et al., 2001 for a review), and suggests that this is also true for cases involving juvenile defendants.

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Conclusions and Future Directions A review of a growing body of research on perceptions of juvenile offenders reveals that juvenile offender, juror, and trial factors can all influence trial outcomes, in ways that may or may not lead to fair trials. Identifying such factors is the first step before efforts can be made to enhance the fairness of trials involving juveniles via voir dire strategies, jury instruction reform, and expert witness testimony. Yet, as we detail throughout this review, there is need for much more research. For instance, future research should explore the perceptions of other key legal players such as judges and probation officers. In addition, a recent legislative development has serious implications for juveniles who commit specific offenses, namely sex offenses: Sex offender registration (i.e., public access—often via the internet—to information about the offender, such as name, date of birth, address, place of employment, photograph) that were once applied only to adult sex offenders are now being applied to juveniles (for review, see Salerno, Stevenson, et al., 2010). Research is just beginning to explore factors that influence public support for this new legislation. For example, Salerno, Najdowski, et al. (2010) found that, although support for registering juvenile sex offenders in the abstract is quite high, support diminishes when people are asked to consider specific types of nonserious sex offenses—offenses that juveniles are currently being registered for in many states (e.g., boyfriend/girlfriend status offenses). Further, support for registering juveniles is also influenced by juvenile offender characteristics including ethnicity (Stevenson, Sorenson, Smith, Sekely, & Dzwairo, 2009) and a history of sexual abuse (Najdowski, Stevenson, Bottoms, & Sorenson, 2010; Stevenson, Najdowski, & Sorenson, 2010). In summary, we feel it is crucial for future research to continue to explore factors that influence adults’ perceptions of children who commit crimes. Youthful offenders are among the most developmentally vulnerable individuals who enter our legal system. Yet current societal trends to transfer these youth to adult court likely stem from the false belief that child offenders can understand a complex legal system that was designed for adults. Continued scientifically sound research on these issues is necessary to promote justice and to protect vulnerable child offenders.

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References Atkins, v. (2002). Virginia, 536, U.S. 304. Bottoms, B. L. (1993). Individual differences in perceptions of child sexual assault victims. In: G. S. Goodman, & B. L. Bottoms, (Eds.), Child victims, child witnesses: Understanding and improving testimony (229-261). New York: Guilford. Bottoms, B. L., Golding, J. G., Stevenson, M. C., Wiley, T. R. & Wozniak, J. (2007). A review of factors affecting jurors’ decisions in child sexual abuse cases. In: J. D. Read, D. Ross, M. Toglia, & R. Lindsay (Eds.), The psychology of eyewitness memory (pp. 509545). New Jersey: Erlbaum. Bray, R. M. & Noble, A. M. (1978). Authoritarianism and decisions of mock juries: Evidence of jury bias and group polarization. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36, 1424-1430. doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.36.12.1424. Crosby, C. A., Britner, P. A., Jodl, K. M. & Portwood, S. G. (1995). The juvenile death penalty and the eighth amendment. Law and Human Behavior, 19, 245-261. doi: 10.1007/BF01501659. Davis, J. H., Spitzer, C. E., Nagao, D. H. & Stasser, G. (1978). Bias in social decisions by individuals and groups: An example from mock juries. In H. Brandstatter, J. H. Davis, & H. Schuler (Eds.), Dynamics of group decisions (33-52). Beverly Hills: Sage. Deaux, K. & Lewis, L. (1984). Structure of gender stereotypes: Interrelationships among components and gender label. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46, 9911004. doi: 10.1037/0022-3514.46.5.991. Devine, D. J., Clayton, L. D., Dunford, B. B., Seying, R. & Pryce, J. (2001). Jury decision making: 45 Years of empirical research on deliberating groups. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 7, 622-727. doi: 10.1037/1076-8971.7.3.622. Diamond, S. S. (1997). Illuminations and shadows from jury simulations. Law and Human Behavior, 21, 561-571. doi: 10.1023/A:1024831908377. Ekehammar, B., Akrami, N. & Araya, T. (2003). Gender differences in implicit prejudice. Personality and Individual Differences, 34, 1509-1523. doi: 10.1016/S01918869(02)00132-0. Ellis, L. & McDonald, J. N. (2001). Crime, delinquency, and social status: a reconsideration. Journal of Offender Rehabilitation, 32(3), 23-52. doi: 10.1300/J076v32n03_03. Gaertner, S. L. & Dovidio, J. F. (1986). The aversive form of racism. In J. F. Dovidio & S. L. Gaertner (Eds.), Prejudice, discrimination and racism (pp. 61-90). Orlando, FL: Academic Press. Ghetti, S. & Redlich, A. D. (2001). Reactions to youth crime: Perceptions of accountability and competence. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 19, 33-52. doi: 10.1002/bsl.426. Haegerich, T. M. & Bottoms, B. L. (2004, March). Effect of jurors’ stereotypes of juvenile offenders on pre- and post-deliberation case judgments. Paper Presentation (and Session Chair) at the Biennial Meeting of the American Psychology-Law Society, Scottsdale, Arizona. Haegerich, T. M. & Bottoms, B. L. (2000). Empathy and jurors’ decisions in patricide trials involving child sexual assault allegations. Law and Human Behavior, 24, 421-448. doi: 10.1023/A:1005592213294.

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Kassin, S. M. & Gudjonsson, G. H. (2004). The psychology of confessions: A review of the literature and issues. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 5, 33-67. Retrieved from http://www.psychologicalscience.org/journals/index.cfm?journal=pspi&content= pspi/home. Kazdin, A. E. (2000). Adolescent development, mental disorders, and decision making of delinquent youths. In T. Grisso & R. G. Schwartz (Eds.), Youth on trial: A developmental perspective on juvenile justice. (33-65). Chicago, IL: The University of Chicago Press. Levesque, R. J. (1996). Is there still a place for violent youth in juvenile justice? Aggression and Violent Behavior, 1, 69-79. doi: 10.1016/1359-1789(95)00006-2c. Levin, I. P., Chapman, D. P. & Johnson, R. D. (1988). Confidence in judgments based on incomplete information: An investigation using hypothetical and real gambles. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 1, 29-41. doi: 10.1002/bdm.3960010105. Moon, M. M., Sundt, J. L., Cullen, F. T. & Wright, J.P., (2000). Is child saving dead? Public support for juvenile rehabilitation. Crime and Delinquency, 46, 38-60. doi: 10.1177/0011128700046001003. Nagin, D., Piquero, A., Scott, E. & Steinberg, L. (2006). Public preferences for rehabilitation versus incarceration of juvenile offenders: Evidence from a contingent valuation survey. Crime and Public Policy, 5, 301-326. doi: 10.1111/j.1745-9133.2006.00406.x. Najdowski, C. J., Bottoms, B. L. & Vargas, M. C. (2009). Jurors’ perceptions of juvenile defendants: The influence of intellectual disability, abuse history, and confession evidence. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 27, 401-430. doi: 10.1002/bsl.873. Najdowski, C. J., Bottoms, B. L., Vargas, M. C. & Cummens, M. L. (2009, March). Understanding jurors’ perceptions of juvenile defendants: Effects of intellectual disability and confession evidence. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the American Psychology-Law Society, San Antonio, TX. Najdowski, C. J., Stevenson, M. C., Salerno, J. M., Wiley, T. R. A., Bottoms, B. L. & Sorenson, K. M. (2010, March). Perceptions of abuse history as a cause of juvenile sex offending. Presented at the annual meeting of the American Psychology Law Society, Vancouver, Canada. Nunez, N. Dahl, M. J., Tang, C. M. & Jensen, B. L. (2007). Trial venue decisions in juvenile cases: Mitigating and extralegal factors matter. Legal and Criminological Psychology, 12, 21-39. doi: 10.1348/135532505X73768. Perry, S. P. & Stevenson, M. C. (2010). Investigating the effects of defendant age on juror's sentencing preferences. Unpublished raw data. Quattrone, G. A. (1986). On the perception of a group’s variability. In S. Worchel and W. G. Austin (eds.) Psychology of intergroup relations (2nd Ed.). Chicago: Nelson-Hall. Redlich, A. D., Quas, J. A. & Ghetti, S. (2008). Perceptions of children during a police interrogation: Guilt, confessions, and interview fairness. Psychology, Crime, and Law, 14, 201-223. doi: 10.1080/10683160701652542. Redlich, A. D., Ghetti, S. & Quas, J. A. (2008). Perceptions of children during a police interview: A comparison of alleged victims and suspects. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 38, 705-735. doi: 10.1111/j.1559-1816.2007.00323.x. Redlich, A. D. & Kassin, S. M. (2009). “Suggestibility and false confessions among juveniles.” In B. L. Bottoms, C. J. Najdowski, & G. S. Goodman (Eds.), Children as victims, witnesses, and offenders: Psychological science and the law (pp. 275-294). New York: Guilford Press.

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Reppucci, N. D., Michel, J. L. & Kostelnik, J. O. (2009). Challenging juvenile transfer: Faulty assumptions and misguided policies. In B. L. Bottoms, C. J. Najdowski, & G. S. Goodman (Eds.), Children as victims, witnesses, and offenders: Psychological science and the law (295-312). New York: Guilford. Salerno, J. M., Stevenson, M. C., Wiley, T. R. A., Najdowski, C. J., Bottoms, B. L. & Schmillen, R. A. (2010). Public attitudes toward applying sex offender registration laws to juvenile offenders. In J. M. Lampinen & K. Sexton-Radek (Eds.), Protecting children from violence: Evidence based interventions (193-217). New York: Psychology Press. Salerno, J. M., Najdowski, C. J., Stevenson, M. C., Wiley, T. R. A., Bottoms, B. L., Vaca Jr. R. & Pimental, P. S. (2010). Psychological mechanisms underlying support for juvenile sex offender registry laws: Prototypes, moral outrage, and perceived threat. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 28, 58-83. doi: 10.1002/bsl.921. Scott, E. S., Reppucci, N. D., Antonishak, J. & DeGennaro, J. T. (2006). Public attitudes about the culpability and punishment of young offenders. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 24, 815-832. doi: 10.1002/bsl.727. Smith, C. & Thornberry, T. P. (1995). The relationship between childhood maltreatment and adolescent involvement in delinquency. Criminology, 33, 451-481. doi: 10.1111/j.17459125.1995.tb01186.x. Snyder, H. N. (December, 2006). Juvenile arrests 2004. Juvenile justice bulletin. Washington, DC: Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, US Department of Justice. Sorenson, K. M. & Stevenson, M. C. (2010, March). Socioeconomic status affects perceptions of juvenile defendants tried in adult criminal court. Presented as a paper at the annual meeting of the American Psychology Law Society, Vancouver, Canada. Stalans, L. J. & Henry G. T. (1994). Societal views of justice for adolescents accused of murder: Inconsistency between community sentiment and automatic legislative transfers. Law and Human Behavior, 18, 675-696. doi: 10.1007/BF01499331. Steinberg, L. & Scott, E. S. (2003). Less guilty by reason of adolescence: Developmental immaturity, diminished responsibility, and the juvenile death penalty. American Psychologist, 58, 1009-1018. doi: 10.1037/0003-066X.58.12.1009 Stevenson, M. C. (2009). Perceptions of juvenile offenders who were abused as children. Journal of Aggression, Maltreatment, and Trauma, 18, 331-349. doi: 10.1080/10926770902901428. Stevenson, M. C. & Bottoms, B. L. (2009). Race Shapes Perceptions of Juvenile Offenders in Criminal Court. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 39, 1660-1689. doi: 10.1111/j.1559-1816.2009.00499.x. Stevenson, M. C., Bottoms, B. L. & Diamond, S. S. (2010). Understanding jurors’ discussions of a defendant’s history of child abuse and alcohol abuse in capital sentencing deliberations. Psychology, Public Policy, and the Law, 16, 1-38. doi: 10.1037/a0018404. Stevenson, M. C., Najdowski, C. J. & Sorenson, K. M. (2010, March). Effects of a defendant’s history of being sexually abused on perceptions of juvenile sex offenders. Presented as a paper at the annual meeting of the American Psychology Law Society, Vancouver, Canada. Stevenson, M. C., Lytle, B., Smith, A., Sorenson, K. M., Sekely, A. & Sigler, B. (2010, March). Effects of defendant and victim race on juror pressures to conform during

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deliberations. Presentation at the annual meeting of the American Psychology Law Society, Vancouver, Canada. Stevenson, M. C., Sorenson, K. M., Smith, A. C., Sekely, A. & Dzwairo, R. A. (2009). Effects of defendant and victim race on perceptions of juvenile sex offenders. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 27, 957-979. doi: 10.1002/bsl.910. Sweeney, L., T. & Haney, C. (1992). The influence of race on sentencing: A meta-analytic review of experimental studies. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 10, 179-195. doi: 10.1002/bsl.2370100204. Widom, C. S. & Maxfield, M. G. (February, 2001). An update on the “cycle of violence.” Research in Brief. Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. Widom, C. S. & Wilson, H. W. (2009). How victims become offenders. In B. L. Bottoms, C. J. Najdowski, & G. S. Goodman, (Eds.), Children as victims, witnesses, and offenders: Psychological science and the law. New York: Guilford Press.

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In: Crime: Causes, Types and Victims Editor: Alicia E. Hasselm, pp. 155-166

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Chapter 8

EFFECTS OF FEEDBACK ON SELF-ASSESSED AND ACTUAL ABILITIES TO TELL LIES Eitan Elaad* Ariel University Center, Ariel, Israel

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Abstract The present study examined how feedback on lie-telling affects the "illusion of transparency" which causes liars to assume that their lies are more easily detected than they actually were. To this end, 75 undergraduate students were asked to self-assess their abilities to detect lies and truths in others, and to tell lies and truths convincingly themselves. It emerged that participants scored their lie-telling ability lower than their other abilities. The abilities were tested in a lie-telling task in which participants received false feedback about the detection of their lies. When the feedback implied that they had avoided detection (confirming feedback), participants' self-assessment of their lie-telling capacity increased. When the feedback suggested that their lies had been detected (challenging feedback), self-assessed lie-telling and truth-telling abilities declined. Liars were more often detected after receiving challenging feedback than before receiving it. Feedback effects on actual detection of lies were not observed for the confirming feedback condition. Practical implications of the present results in criminal interrogation and in the courts are discussed.

Introduction People lie frequently. DePaulo and Kashy asked people to maintain a daily record of all their lies and reported that, on average, people tell one or two lies a day (DePaulo & Kashy, 1998; DePaulo et al., 1996; Kashy & DePaulo, 1996). People lie most frequently about their feelings, preferences, and attitudes, and their achievements and failures. When people were asked how they feel about their everyday lies, they answered that they did not spend much time either planning these lies or worrying about them. They expressed no regret or fear of being detected. However, they reported feeling uneasy when they lied and reported that such

*

E-mail address: [email protected]. Fax +922 2 5865634. (Corresponding author)

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social interactions were more superficial and disagreeable compared to interactions in which they told the truth (DePaulo et al., 2003). People's lack of concern over their lie-telling behavior may suggest that people are skilled and experienced liars. Past research on lie detection suggested that most people’s lies go undetected (Bond & DePaulo, 2008; DePaulo et al., 1985; Kraut, 1980; Zukerman et al., 1980). Furthermore, even professionals who are regularly engaged in detecting deceit, such as customs officials (Kraut & Poe, 1980), and federal law enforcement officers (DePaulo & Pfeifer, 1986), were unable to differentiate truthful from deceptive messages.

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Self-Assessed Abilities to Tell and Detect Lies and Truths It is, therefore, somewhat surprising to find that people tend to underestimate their lietelling ability, that is, their ability to lie without being detected (Ekman & O'Sullivan, 1991; Elaad, 2003; Vrij, 2008). Elaad (2003) asked participants to rate their lie-telling abilities compared to others and reported that many respondents believed that their lie-telling ability is inferior to the lie-telling ability of others. A possible explanation for this result is that individuals believe that lie-telling is a more difficult action than truth-telling, because the liar must construct a new and never-experienced tale, whereas telling the truth is a simple matter of "telling it like it is" (Buller & Burgoon, 1996; Miller & Stiff, 1993). DePaulo and her colleagues (2003) challenged this explanation by arguing that truthtelling may occasionally be challenging (e.g., when the truth may offend or insult another person). They also contended that telling the truth is more than a mere presentation of reality. There are different ways to tell the truth, and some are very complicated. On the other hand, lies may be easily formulated when they are based on scripts of familiar stories. However, DePaulo and her colleagues (2003) admitted that examples of difficult lies and simple truths are more available than easily formulated lies or hard-to-tell truths. The underrated lie-telling ability can also be explained by anchoring and adjustment (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). Anchoring refers to the process in which people who make an assessment make an insufficient adjustment from an initial value (the anchor), resulting in a final assessment that is biased towards the anchor. With respect to the tendency of people to rate themselves as less efficient lie-tellers than average, anchoring is represented by the illusion of transparency (Gilovich et al., 1998). Gilovich and his colleagues noted that in communications, senders are anchored to their own internal experience. They recognize that recipients are not privy to the same information as they are and consequently attempt to adjust for this fact. Since the adjustment is insufficient, they tend to overestimate the receivers' ability to discern their internal states and detect their lies. The same illusion of transparency may contribute to the senders' overestimation of their truth-telling ability. The illusion cause innocent people to believe that their inner feelings and states will manifest themselves on the outside (Granhag & Hartwig, 2008; Savitsky & Gilovich, 2003), and their truths will show. It was therefore decided to add questions that evaluated two additional abilities, the ability to tell the truth and the ability to identify the truth in others. It was expected to obtain higher truth-telling ability ratings and lower lietelling ability ratings.

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Elaad (2003) reported a robust lie-detection bias indicating that law enforcement officers over-estimated their own lie-detecting abilities. Elaad explained that people tend to think of themselves in a positive way and therefore hate to believe that they can be easily deceived. High lie-detection ability scores serve this preconception. If the illusion of transparency affect lying and truth telling abilities differentially, it is hypothesized that participants would believe that detecting lies is easier than telling lies but telling the truth is easier than detecting truths.

Effects of Feedback on Self-Assessed Lying Abilities and Actual Lie Telling Performance

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An earlier account (Elaad, 2003) examined the effects of feedback in a lie-detecting task. In the present study, feedback was given to a lie-telling task. Specifically, the present study examines the effects of confirming (positive) and challenging (negative) feedback presented following a lie-telling task on the subsequent assessment of lie-telling ability and on actual lie-telling performance. When the feedback indicates that the participant's lies had been detected, the illusion of transparency is encouraged and becomes more salient to the liar. It is expected that such negative feedback would further decrease the assessments of lie-telling ability. The confirming feedback stands in contrast to the liars' illusion of transparency. This forces participants to reconsider their preconceptions about their inability to lie undetected and enhances their self-assessment of their lie-telling ability. Another goal of the present study was to extend the feedback examination to actual lying behavior. It is suggested that when the feedback indicates that the participant's lies had been detected, the lying person would behave with less confidence and might show signs of nervousness. This behavior might be interpreted by other participants as indicating deception (Vrij, 2008) and actual lies would be detected more often. On the other hand, when the feedback implies that participants have escaped detection, they may gain confidence and their subsequent deceptive messages may be interpreted as truths.

The Experimental Design An experiment conducted by Gilovich et al. (1998) was replicated to examine feedback effects. In their experiment, groups of five participants were asked to play a lie detection game in which participants tell lies and truths to the rest of the group. In each of five rounds, one participant tells a lie ("liar") and the remaining group members, who are unaware of the identity of the liar, tell the truth ("truth-tellers"). The truth-tellers in each round acted as liecatchers and were asked to detect which player was lying. Liars were asked to predict the number of participants who would detect the lie. Based on the lie-telling bias (illusion of transparency), it was expected that liars would believe that their inner state was "transparent" to the other players and, as a result, would predict their lies to be detected more often than they actually would be.

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Method Participants A total of 75 (6 male and 69 female) undergraduate college students participated in the experiment for course credit. Their mean age was 22.4 years (SD=1.6). Participants were promised a reward of 30 NIS (about $8) for an outstanding performance.

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Procedure Participants were divided into 15 groups of five participants each. Each group was invited by two female experimenters (A and B) to participate in a lie-detection experiment. Participants were seated in a circle and completed a questionnaire containing 30 items relating to biographical and personal data (e.g., "What was the name of the high school you attended?"). The questionnaires were collected by Experimenter A, who selected several of the items for the follow-up presentation. Participants were then asked to use four different scales to self-assess their lie-telling, truth-telling, lie-detecting and truth-detecting abilities, relative to others. The scales ranged from (0) "much worse than others" to (100) "much better than others" with an intermediate anchor (50) "as good as others". Participants then received and wore a name tag with their given name. Experimenter B explained that the purpose of the study was to investigate people's abilities to convince others of the truthfulness of their lies and to detect lies in others. Participants were informed that they would be asked to make five brief presentations to the others, pertaining to different items of personal information. In every round, unknown to all other participants, one participant would be designated a liar, and the remaining four participants would be instructed to tell the truth. Each participant would be assigned the role of the liar only once. Participants were instructed that their task was to detect as many lies as possible and convince others of their own lies. The most successful liar was promised a bonus of 30 NIS (about $8) as a token of appreciation of his/her ability. In each of the subsequent five rounds, Experimenter A handed the participants cards indicating the topic for discussion (e.g., the name of the high school they attended), and the participant's assigned roles ("truth-teller" or "liar"). Next, the participants presented their information according to their assigned role, in succession. They were instructed to present a statement lasting no less than 15 sec. To better simulate an interrogation, each participant was allowed to ask the speaker one question. Meanwhile, Experimenter A verified that participants followed the instructions, that is, the designated truth-tellers told the truth, and the designated liar lied. After each round, participants made their predictions on separate cards. Liars were asked to predict the number of participants who would detect their lies. Answers ranged from none (0) to all (4). Notably, participants were reminded that, on average, one person out of four could be expected to detect their lies merely by guessing. At the same time, truth-tellers used their cards to record the name of the person who they believed was lying. Experimenter B collected the cards. Meanwhile, Experimenter A prepared the new item and assigned new roles to the participants for the next round.

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The five participants in each of the 15 groups were assigned in advance to the three feedback conditions (e.g., two confirming feedback, two challenging feedback, and one nofeedback) on their lie-telling ability. The number of participants in each condition was counterbalanced across groups. After the first five rounds, a break of about 5 minutes was announced. Participants were informed that their performance would be evaluated during the break. Participants in the no-feedback condition proceeded to the next stage without receiving any feedback on their performance as liars in one of the first five rounds. Participants in the other two conditions were handed notes “indicating” their lie-telling performance levels. Participants in the challenging feedback condition were told that their lie had been detected by three of the four participants. In other words, the challenging feedback indicated that the liars performed worse than they may have predicted. Participants in the confirming feedback condition were informed that their lie was detected by only one person (similar to the expected performance by chance), and undetected by the remaining three participants. To examine the feedback effects on participants' subsequent predictions, participants took part in an additional session of five lie detection rounds. The procedure was similar to that described for the first five rounds. After the final round, participants were asked to self-assess their abilities on the four scales once again. Finally, the experimenters conducted a short debriefing, and paid 30 NIS to the most successful liar. The experiment lasted about one hour and 30 minutes.

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Results The data which were collected in each session may be confounded in the sense that the evolving inter-personal dynamics may have influenced subsequent assessments and predictions. It was therefore decided to aggregate data at the lowest level of independence (Kenny, 1996). In this study, the lowest level of independence is the level of the group. Therefore, scores were averaged for the three feedback groups at this level (e.g., when two participants in the same group were assigned to the confirming feedback condition, their scores were averaged and treated as a single unit).

Self-Assessed Abilities to Tell and Detect Lies and Truths A 3 × 2 × 2 × 2 ANOVA with one between-subject factor, Feedback (the three feedback conditions), and three within-subject factors, Time (before and after the feedback), Ability (to tell and to detect) and Sincerity (lies and truths), was conducted on the mean self-assessed ability scores. A significant main effect for Sincerity was obtained, F (1, 42) = 66.4, p