Basics of the ecological and geographic forecasting: Training manual. 9786010450356

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Introduction

M. A. Askarova

Basics of the ecological and geographic forecasting Training manual

Almaty «Qazaq university» 2015

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BASICS OF THE ECOLOGICAL AND GEOGRAPHIC FORECASTING

UDC 911(075.8) BBC 26.8я73 A 90

Recommended for publication by the Scientific Council of the Geography and Environmental Sciences faculty and RISO of Al-Farabi Kazakh National University

Reviewers: Dr. Geo. Sc., Professor G.N. Nyussupova Dr. Geo. Sc., Associate professor R.V. Plokhikh Dr. Geo. Sc., Associate professor V.N. Uvarov

А 90

Askarova M. A. Basics of the ecological and geographic forecasting: Training manual. – Almaty: The Kazakh University, 2015. –74 p. ISBN 978-601-04-5035-6 The essence, basic concepts and factors of the environment of ecological and geographical forecasting are considered. A classification scheme, as well as spatial and temporal scales and stages of forecasting are proposed. A methodology, methodological approaches, the basic principles and methods of forecasting are presented. The training manual is oriented to graduate and doctoral PhD, as well as professionals with an interest in ecological and geographical forecast.

UDC 911(075.8) BBC 26.8я73 ISBN 978-601-04-5035-6

© Askarova M. A., 2015 © Al-Farabi ­KazNU, 2015

Introduction

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Introduction

Considering the evolution of the biosphere, V.I. Vernadskiy proposed a thesis that a man becomes a major geological force that can make considerable changes on our planet. The transformation of the natural environment to the present time and almost all of the negative environmental effects are the result of a rapidly growing size of population which tends to more and more fully meet its vital requirements, without taking into account the effects of the objective laws of nature. Such an anthropocentric strategy of the transformation of nature regardless of systemic principles of its existence leads to unwanted consequences, the elimination of the arising in the nature imbalances requires greater and greater expenditures of efforts and resources. The rapidly developing modern production considerably complicates the accounting of the long-term effects. Therefore, the basic principle of human strategies for solving the problems of anthropogenic im-pact on the environment should be the commensurability of forms and extents of human activity with the potential ability of natural and man-made ecosystems to eliminate its adverse effects, that is, the ability of these systems to natural purification and selfrecovery. Whether the balance in the environment that has evolved over billions of years of self-development continue or will be irreversibly disturbed depends on how the humanity organize the production at the present time and in the future. It is considered that the biosphere is an integrated complex megasystem which in its turn consists of such systems as natural and natural-economic ones. The latter includes such subsystems as industrial, agricultural and population. At certain stages of development, the anticipating or retardation can occur in the development of the individual subsystems, for example, the population size may grow faster than the community and consumer infrastructure, and a discrepancy of some subsystems with respect to the others occurs. In order to prevent such inconsistencies in the future, a need in the creation of appropriate forecasts rises.

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BASICS OF THE ECOLOGICAL AND GEOGRAPHIC FORECASTING

The main objective of such forecasts is to foresee negative changes of the environmental situation and to develop measures for their prevention, elimination and minimization in advance. A great contribution to the development of the environmental and geographical forecasting was made by such scientists as Yu.G. Saushkin, V.B. Sochava, N.M. Skhvatkov, V.N. Bolshakov, K.P. Kosma­chev, A.M. Trofimov, V.S. Anoshko, T. V. Zvonkova and others. An accurate forecast can be done only on the basis of an integrated approach to the study of nature that determines the world-view role of modern physical geography, which has accumulated overwhelming experience in the study of patterns of development and functioning of natural and anthropogenically changed geosystems. The environmental and geographical approach suggests a comprehensive analysis of information and the development of principles and methods providing the process of forecasting and the reliability of its results. The purpose of this training manual is to train students-geographers, for them to have a correct understanding of the methodology of environmental and geographical forecasting, its conceptual foundations and conceptual construct, to show the need for a clear formulating of objectives in its implementation. Thus, the most modern materials and works of famous scientists, professionals, as well as research organizations are used in the pro­ posed training manual that allowed to present a sufficiently capa­ cious in content teaching material. Figures, tables and graphs that facilitate the perception of the training manual are used to illustrate the basic provisions and methodological techniques.

1.1. Problems of environmental and geographic forecasting

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Environmental and geographical forecasting: the essence and key concepts

1.1. Problems of environmental and geographic forecasting The need of a person to foresee the future follows from the peculiarities of his mind and desire to learn and to explain the expected events, phenomena and processes. At different stages of the development of civilization, the forecasting of future was expressed in different forms. They were based on the level of human thinking and cognition, as well as the social circumstances, generated by a number of objective and subjective reasons. However, at all times of human development, a person’s ability to foresee the future was inseparably connected with his ability to correctly evaluate the past. Any unwillingness to see the patterns of past events or their intentional misrepresentation led to an erroneous interpretation of the course of history and contributed to the development of mystical teachings based on the belief in the supernatural, unexplainable powers, ostensibly determining the evolution of nature and society. In the general scheme, the forecasting can be presented as an ability to foresee the future state of objects and phenomena, which is based on the ability of a living matter to anticipate the reflection of reality. This ability according to the teaching of I.P. Pavlov and further researches of A.I. Oparin, A.K. Anokhin, N.A. Bernshtein, V.A. Lisichkin and of other scientists was formed due to certain properties and structure of inanimate nature, to the conditions of which the adaptation of the living matter occurred in the process of its formation and development. The main feature of the impact of the outside world on a living organism was a cyclicality, i.e. repeatability that contributed to the adaptation of the organism to the structure of inorganic world (habitat) and to the formation in it of an apparatus anticipating the reflection

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of reality. The ability of the anticipatory reflection of the outside world developed and improved with the growth of the level of organization of living organisms themselves. This ability to purposefully anticipate the reality came with the emergence of the second signal system and inherent to only a human. The preventive activity of the organism can be presented in the form of a following scheme of the current processes: analysis of the information received – comparison of it with the information contained in the memory, – the controlling purposeful impact on the working body. In contrast to animal, a man has an inherent ability not only to pass ahead of the reflection of reality, but also to create the images of future objects, i.e. to anticipate the results of activities. The reliability of the forecast, to a large extent, depends on the accuracy of the methods used, which is expressed through a prognostic error. It is evaluated by calculating the correlation coefficients, Fisher and Student’s criteria and other approaches of mathematical statistics, probability theory and information analysis. The assessment of the accuracy of methods of forecasting and validity (reliability) of forecasts is widely used in terms of the time of their accomplishment, the probability of occurrence of the forecasted event and the structural and parametric characteristics. For this purpose, there are concepts, which decode the essence of the expression of accuracy in each specific case: the conditional time scales, the scale of probability and parametric scale. The time scale is a conventional line, on which the characteristic points are drawn on: bench mark, the predicted occurrence of the event, time of origin of the event and the beginning of obtaining of reliable information about the event as an object of study. The information contained in each of the listed conventional points reflects a relationship between them and allows to reveal the extent and nature of their impact, as well as the impact of other factors on the forecast error for the look-ahead period. Most of the scientists consider forecasting as a study of phenomena, events and processes that have not yet occurred, but the occurrence of which is possible in future. The forecast disclose the main features of their dynamics and development. This approach is inherent also to geographers in substantiation and determination of geographical forecasting. In modern conditions of the restructuring of organization and manage­ ment of socio-economic development and the intensification of production, the problem of environmental and geographical forecasting both in the country as a whole and in individual regions gains in exceptional urgency. The methodological basis of such forecasting is spatially differentiated, territorial approach, combined with a complex dynamic analysis. Stressing the forecast function of geographical science, K.K. Markov pointed out that its main objective has become a forecast of changes

1.1. Problems of environmental and geographic forecasting

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of geographical environment, i.e. environmental and geographical forecast, which is at present becoming one of the major trends of geography both in our country and abroad. The slowed rates of formation and development of environmental and geographical forecasting are explained by the complexity of the problem and the need to solve a complex of problems related to the choice of a district , methods of validation of the obtained results. For reliably forecasting the state of the environment, accurate and complete spatio-temporal characteristics of the phenomena and processes are needed - this is exactly the essence of the “geographization” of the environmental forecasting. There is a need in informal schemes of decomposition of simulation models which should be based on the identification of the aggregated characteristics of the dynamics of the environment, i.e. such parameters which are themselves functions of a large number of original variables. In the definition and calculation of reliable aggregated indicators, an important role should be played by comprehensive studies of the interaction of natural and socioeconomic structures. The first organized scientific forecasting and geographical studies are related to the 60-ies of the XX century. This is largely due to the fact that up to this time, such issues as environmental protection and sustainable use of natural resources, were not even mentioned among the most important challenges of the future. In 1967, Yu.G. Saushkin in the article “Forecast in economic geography“ for the first time mentioned the problem of comprehensive geographic forecasting. At the same time, at the Institute of Geography of the AS USSR (now the RAS ), special works on the forecasting of changes of nature under the influence of hydrotechnical structures were started to be held. Deep forecasting and geographical studies were organized in Moscow, St. Petersburg , Kiev Universities and other institutions. A prognostic boom was experienced in all areas of human life and activity. A great interest both from science and economy and from the side of individuals to forecasting of the future state of the environment and individual natural resources is, perhaps, understandable. More and more increasing human impact on the environment causes significant, sometimes difficult to explain changes in it . This is particularly related to climate, water resources, physical processes and phenomena of atmosphere. Only a strict control on the basis of reliable scientific results of scientific forecasting allows to turn the spontaneous interaction of man and nature into controllable. Papers of K.K. Markov, I.P. Gerasimov, T.V. Zvonkova, Yu.G. Saushkin, A.I. Ryabchikov, V.B. Sochava, V.S. Preobrazhenskiy, F.N. Milkov, Yu.G. Simonov, N.I. Lihyaylov, V.A. Nikolaev, A.G. Isachenko, K.N. Dyakonov, A.G. Yemelyanov and others are devoted to the issues of geographical forecasting. B.Ya. Dvoskin, G.V. Geldyyeva, G.M. Dzhanaleyeva, Sh. M. Nadyrov, I.M. Malkovskyy, I.M. Tursunov

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and other scientists from Kazakhstan were engaged in these issues. The most generalized definition was given by I.R. Spector, according to which a geographical forecast is a statement, fixing the state of socio-economic and natural systems, which are formed on the Earth’s surface in the characteristic space and time intervals, with a priori assessment of the probability and the given look-ahead period. In this case, we are talking about the natural and socioeconomic systems in the wide sense. In the concept of “geographical forecast”, Yu.G. Saushkin, P.Ya. Baklanov, V.M. Kravchenko put the definition of a probability state and development of geosystems with the disclosure of changes in the spatial relationships both within geosystems and between them. In this case, they consider the relations between the elements within particular geosystems, and the relations between particular geosystems – within integral geosystems, i.e. the elements of geosystems, particular and integral geosystems are distinguished as an object of forecasting. The authors point out that a geographical forecast is based on the theory and methodology of modern geography and is a new stage in its development. In addition, geographical forecasting includes not only scientific prevision of the states of the objects of geographical study (geosystems, territories, etc.), but also the ways of its development as a self-developing system. According to V.S. Preobrazhenskiy, the geographical forecasting should cover the entire structure of science (subject, theory, methods, information science, etc.), as well as to predict the state and change in relationship between the individual geographical sciences, trends and schools. When considering the forecast as a study of phenomena which have not yet been realized but can be realized, T.V. Zvonkova believe that the forecast discloses the features of evolution of these phenomena, outlines the best methods of management, substantiate the decision making and the period of the goals achievement. In her opinion, the forecast is a special form of knowledge, a part of methodology as a science of knowledge methods. K. K. Markov associates the rapid development of geographical forecasting with the scientific and technical revolution. Based on the fact that the use of natural conditions and resources is unequal in different socio-political situations, the geographical forecasting should have a political, economic and geographical principle. He marks out the problem of geographical forecasting into a separate problem of the whole geographical science. Considering the geographical forecasting as a new form of scientific activities of geographers, V. B. Sochava pointed out that it con­ tributes to the development of the theory of geography, makes it necessary to develop new quantitative methods of collection and synthesis of a huge amount of information and thus contributes to the development of geographical science as a whole.

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The results of geographical forecasting of both comprehensive and specific ones is a necessary information for the substantiation of the activities on protection and optimization of the environment, for forecasting the economic development, for the evaluation of the resources and for the solution of other integrated tasks. Their practical significance will be the highest, if the object of scientific research, i.e. a geosystem or a natural and territorial complex system will be used as an object of forecasting. According to the definition of V.B. Sochava, a geographical forecast is a scientific development by conceptions about natural geographical systems of future, about their fundamental properties and various diverse variable states, conditioned by both spontaneous development and (increasingly) intentional and unforeseen results of human activities on the development and exploitation of natural resources and other impacts on the environment. It covers the sectoral and specific processes (development of the relief, vegetation, water content of rivers, etc.), the forecasts of which cannot be reliable, if not conform to the comprehensive forecast, the object of which is the whole geosystem. Supporting the idea of V.B. Sochava that the object of geographical forecasting coincides with the object of geographical research, A. G. Isachenko suggested the term “landscape and geographical forecast”. The essence of such forecast is a scientific forecasting with a certain lead time of the state of behaviour and direction of development of geosystems. Based on such approach, a landscape and geographical forecast means a compiling of a landscape and geographical forecast with the certain probability of occurrence of “an event”, with the required accuracy and with the implementation of a certain previously given set of factors. The definitions of physical and geographical forecasting of K.N. Dyakonov, F.N. Milkov, V.A. Nikolayev and other geographers are close to the interpretations of V.B. Sochava and A.G. Isachenko. According to them, the essence of the physical and geographic forecasting is concluded in scientific forecasting of changes of natural systems (geosystems) under the influence of both natural and anthropogenic factors. Having clarified the concept of physical and geographical forecasting by disclosing the aspects of changes in nature, A. G. Yemelyanov defines the physical and geographical forecasting in the following way: it is a system of research, the purpose of which is to identify the trends, extent, rate and scales of the upcoming changes of geosystems for the development of measures on optimization of the environment. Methods based on information theory and other mathematical theories are increasingly used to address the prognostic problems, that allows to study the patterns of relationships of geosystem components by evaluating their joint variation in geographical space. In this regard, Yu.G. Puzachenko understands the geographical forecasting in

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the narrow sense of the word as a state of the forecasted object (natural component) in different conditions of the environment that are expected in the period of anticipation (lead time). The forecasting with that is based on the relationship between the object of forecasting and the conditions, existing at the present time and studied in the temporal and spatial aspects. The existing experiments of forecasting the development of natural components or systems using techniques of information theory show the high accuracy of these forecasts. Thus, summarizing the interpretations of the concept of “geographical forecasting”, the following definition of it can be given: geographical forecasting is a scientific development of the system of conceptions about the future properties and states of geographic systems, orientation and extent of their forthcoming changes caused by both spontaneous development and human activities, recorded with a given lead time in a characteristic space and time interval. Geographical forecasting differs with its variety, complexity, accordingly complicity of conduction, since a geographical forecast in most cases is a forecast of the state of geographical environment, which is the sphere of economic activities. Therefore, a geographical forecast includes also an environmental component. The task of forecasting includes the need to consider several types of changes of natural components: – as a result of natural behavior of the processes of landscape-forming; – planned and intentionally man-made; – indirect, caused by non-intentional human activities. A great importance with that has a forecast of the orientation and the level of development of science and technology, on which the degree of transformation of natural systems and the ability to manage in the future largely depends. The joint consideration of natural, technical, socio-economic processes and phenomena is a rather difficult task of a theoretical, methodological and applied nature. At the same time, it is necessary to foresee, how the rapidly developing society with a complex, dynamic production technology interacts with even more complicated, continuously changing nature. Issues for discussion

1. The approaches and concepts of geographical forecasting. 2. The aims and objectives of forecasting, opinions of scientists. 3. The contribution of scientists in the formation and development of geographical forecasting. 4. The objects of geographical forecasting. 5. The essence and the basic concepts of geographical forecasting. 6. The ecological component of the ecological and geographical forecasting.

1.2. Basic concepts and definitions in forecasting

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1.2. Basic concepts and definitions in forecasting In prognostics, as in an independent field of science, its own system of concepts, definitions and terms has been formed. The rapid development of forecasting in the second half of the ХХ century, its inter-disciplinary character led to the formation of a complex conceptual structure. Since 1975, within the AS of the USSR, the Committee of scientific-technical terminology worked on the creation of a system of terms and definitions that cover the concepts underlying the prognostics and forecasting. We will consider the basic concepts and definitions recommended by this Committee. Prognostics is a scientific discipline that studies the general principles of forecasting, patterns of development of forecasts. The subjects of its research are the laws, principles and methods of forecasting, the main objectives are the development of problems of the theory of forecasting, principles of typology and classification of forecasts, as well as the methodological basis of forecasting. Forecasting is a process of development (production) of forecasts, special scientific research, aimed at defining the perspective state of objects, phenomena, events, etc. under consideration. Forecast is a science-based assertion about the possible states of a forecasted object in future. Often the terms “prevision”, “prediction”, “presentiment”, etc. are used as synonyms of forecasting. Prevision is the obtaining information about the future. It may be scienti­fic and unscientific. Unscientific prevision is a result of premonitions of a man (intuitive foresight), belief in unconscious powers (religious), as well as based on knowledge of life, superstitions, etc. (domestic or everyday). The scientific prevision is based on the knowledge of the laws of nature and society. In cases if the prevision regards to the information on the present or past state of the forecast object, it can be imitating – the assessment of the dynamics of the object from past to present; presentistic – the evaluation of mineral deposits; reconstructive – imaginable recon­ struction of the monuments of antiquity. A prediction is the obtaining of possible or desirable perspective states of the forecasted object, the quantitative characteristics of which are either impossible or difficult. It is a description form of prediction. A presentiment is assertion about the information of future at the level of intuition. A close term to it in meaning is “foreseeing”, which reflects the obtaining of information about the future on the basis of life experience or conjectures on it, that do not have a scientific basis. Along with forecasting, future events can be planned, designed, program­ med. In contrast to a forecast, a plan contains certain terms and conditions of the happening of the predicted event. It reflects the order, consistency and means for the implementation of a system of measures.

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Planning is an activity aimed at achieving the intended targets with certain means, the directive use of the information about future. The basis for the development of multi-version models of the plan is a forecast, in some cases a forecast and a plan can be developed independently of each other. Program in a contrast to a plan is a set of measures, necessary for the realization of scientific and technical, social and other tasks. Programming is a process of establishing the basic provisions and sequence of specific measures to implement the plans. The problem may relate to one of the sections of the plan or its individual problems, and also perform pre-planning functions. A project is a decision on a specific measure, object, etc., necessary for the implementation of the program. Designing is a creation of specific details of the developed programs. A forecast technique is a specific form of approach to the development of a forecast. A procedure is a number of techniques, aimed at implementing the certain set of operations. A method is an ordered set of simple techniques aimed at developing the forecast. A methodology is an ordered set of procedures and operations on the basis of one or several methods. A methodology of forecasting is a teaching of methods, techniques and systems of forecasting. A way of forecasting – receiving and processing information about the future with the use of uniform methods of forecasting. A system of forecasting (predictive system) is an ordered system of forecasting methods and means of their implementation, functioning in accordance with the basic principles of forecasting, used to predict complex phenomena and processes. A person or a group of professionals engaged in forecasting, is called a predictor; a period of time for which the forecast is developed – forecast lead time. The maximum possible forecast lead time of the given accuracy is called a forecast horizon, and the period of time, for which the information about the object of forecasting used for retrospection, is accumulated – the period of the forecast founding. To determine the level of accuracy of the forecast, such terms as “the reliability of the forecast”, “a mistake” are used. Reliability is an assessment of probability of the forecast implementation for the specified interval. The forecast error – is a posteriori (based on experience) value of deviation of the forecast from the actual state of the object of forecasting. It depends on factors – the sources of error. The sources of regular and irregular errors are distinguished. Permanent errors arise from the use of unreliable forecasting data or inadequate techniques, temporary errors – as a result of the occurrence of unpredictable events, that deviate from the general trends of development of the object of forecasting.

1.2. Basic concepts and definitions in forecasting

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Checking the accuracy and reliability of a forecast has got a name of verification of a forecast (from Fr. verification – checking of validity). The following types of verification of forecasts are usually distinguished. Direct verification is a verification of a forecast through its developing by a method different from that previously used. Indirect verification is a verification of a forecast by its comparing with the forecasts, obtained from other sources of information. Inverse verification is a verification of a forecast by checking the adequacy of the predictive model in the retrospective period. Consequent (from Lat. сonsequens – consequent) verification is a verification of a forecast by its analytical or logical inference from previously obtained forecasts. Verification by repeated survey is a verification of a forecast by the use of and additional substantiation or change of the expert’s opinion, that is different from the majority opinion. Verification with account taken of errors is a verification by identifying and taking into account the sources of regular errors of forecasts. Verification by a competent expert or opponent is a verification of a forecast by comparing with the opinion of the most competent expert or refutation of criticisms of the opponent in the forecast. The important indicator is a prognostic background, which is defined as a set of external in relation to the object of forecasting (surrounding the object) conditions and factors used in solving prognostic problems. The term “futurology” is very popular and widely used in forecasting abroad, it is used in several meanings: 1) for the determination of the philosophy of the future as opposed to all the other social teachings; 2) in the sense of the science of the future or the “history of the future”; 3) as a complex of social forecasting of the closely interrelated set of prognostic functions of the existing social sciences and prognostics, i. e. as interdisciplinary research; 4) as a synonym of a complex of social forecasting – in contrast to the prognostics; 5) as a synonym for prognostics. There are several trends in futurology: – antiscientismistic trend denies the positive role of science and blames it for all the ills of mankind; – convergencionistic (from Lat. сonvergere – approach, converge) is aimed reforming of capitalism through gain of fundamentals of socialism in the bourgeois-democratic societies; – apocalyptical (from Lat. ароkalypsis – revelation) trend rejects the compatibility of social consequences of scientific and tech nical progress with the possibility of further survival of humanity. To evaluate the results of forecasting of the future, the terms “ecopessimism” (predicts a global catastrophe for the world in the next decades) and “technooptimism” (proves the post-industrial prosperity of mankind and highlights science and technology in the successful solution of socio-economic, technical and political

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tasks) are used in futurology. Also such terms as “food crisis” – a threat of starvation, “technological crisis” – a threat of irreversible contamination of environment on conditions that the trends and pace of scientific and technological progress, “psychophysiologic crisis” – a threat to the human life are used. In proposals on the way out of this impasse the following expressions can be found: “zero growth” – is a simple reproduction, “zero economic growth” – is a simple reproduction of machines, “zero growth of environmental pollution” – is a transfer of all industrial enterprises to the closed cycle of production, etc. Issues for discussion

1. The notion of terms and terminologies, applied in forecasting. 2. What do you understand by verification of forecast, variety of verification? 3. Reveal the content and essence of the concept of “futurology”. 4. Define the concepts of terms of “ecopessimism” and “technooptimism”. 5. Name the existing modern trends in futurology.

1.3. The object and purposes of the environmental and geographical forecasting A forecast is one of the forms of relative knowledge of the world. At a certain historical stage of knowledge, only partial, often not very accurate, conceptions of the laws of development of phenomena can be obtained. This situation corresponds to the probabilistic nature of the environmental and geographical forecast, which can also only approximately reflect the true picture. Forecasting is usually characterized as a definition of the future state of the object or the perspectives of its development. However, the future state is not the ultimate purpose of the forecast. There is a need in a feedback from the future into the present, as only in this case the management and prevention of probable adverse events are possible. It is exactly in indissoluble connection of the theoretical preconditions and practical activities that the sense of active forecasting is. The unity of theory and practice is necessary also because in the conditions of accelerating paces of development of production, technology and science, the society especially needs advance information. Getting down to forecasting, we should, first of all, establish its object and purpose, because exactly they determine the content and direction of further research, the choice of spatial and temporal and other operational forecasting tasks, a set of research methods, etc. Regarding the object of forecasting, there are several points of view. T.V. Zvonkova, Yu.G. Simonov, A.G. Yemelyanov and others consider the territory as a place of the future life and human economic activities to be an object of geographical forecasting.

1.3. The object and purposes of the environmental and geographical forecasting

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Yu.G. Saushkin, A.M. Ryabchikov, V.M. Kravchenko and others call the geographical environmentas an object; V.B. Sochava, P.Ya. Baklanov, I.R. Spektor, K.N. Dyakonov and others – natural, natural-technical and socio-economic systems. There were attempts to strictly differentiate the objects of physical and economical geography. If considered in general terms, natural and territorial system is the object of physical and geographic forecasting. However, due to the fact that the prognostic-geographical studies involve practically unlimited range of subjects and issues, selection of the object should be determined primarily by practical or scientific necessity. With that, the concreteness and clearness of spatial and temporal determination of boundaries of the object of forecasting are important. According to Zvonkova’s opinion, to make the use of any territorial unit as an object of geographical forecasting, it should be integral and have a structure consisting of blocks and components of natural, technical and social character. The components of the territorial system should have clearly defined collateral subordination and measurable parameters. These conditions are largely met by geotechnical systems, representing a stage of development of natural systems in the period of scientific and technological revolution. Both active and passive, open and closed systems can be objects of forecasting. Active systems are designed to change properties of the environment, passive ones do not pursue this purpose. Open systems influence the environment by giving substance and energy into it, closed ones influence without giving substance and energy. An example of the active controllable system is complex irrigation installations. According to K.N. Dyakonov, technical systems are so closely connected with the natural conditions and processes that form highly organized united systems with landscapes and intra-landscape geosystems, called geotechnical complexes, which are divided into subsystems of a different order. The value of geotechnical complexes as objects of geographic forecasting increases significantly on conditions that there is a possibility to control them. Some scientists consider the subject of geographical science to be the object of forecasting. In particular, according to the opinion of A.G. Isachenko, the object of landscape and geographical forecasting, which he equates with physical and geographical forecasting, are geosystems of all levels and ranks in the concept, identical to a natural and territorial system, i.e. landscapes. The objects can also be catchment areas of rivers and territories with clear natural boundaries. At the same time, the forecast should cover the entire structure of the geosystem, including changes and the transformation of all components and their interactions in space and time. According to the coverage of issues, to the object and purpose, the geographical forecasting can be specific (component), sectoral

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and comprehensive. Specific forecasting is aimed at identifying the quantitative and qualitative changes in individual natural components or its properties for a long-term period. All components of the natural landscape are interrelated, there development is interdependent, therefore it is practically impossible to study a component in isolation from the rest. The objects of specific forecasting are soils, waters, relief, vegetation and other components of the natural environment within the boundaries of the natural and administrative regions. A water management forecast that determines the qualitative and quantitative changes in water resources as a result of economic human activity for an accounting period can serve as an example of a specific forecast. The famous hydrologist and geographer V.V. Tzinzerling in 1924 gave an unambiguous prediction that with the involvement in the basin in irrigated agriculture of about 1 million dessiatinas (about 1,4 million ha) because of water discharge and disposal of runoff, the level of the Aral Sea for 15 years may reduce by almost 10 meters. It is well known that in the years of maximal enhancement of cotton growing the crops reached 3 million hectares or more (i.e. twice as much as predicted by V. V. Tzinzerling), including 1,5 million hectares in Uzbekistan. The absolute water level in the sea, which was observed in 1911–1960 was 53,0 m BS. The volume of water was 1064 km3, out of which 79,7 km3 was accounted for the Northern Aral Sea and 984 km3 – for the Big Sea. The water surface area of the whole Aral Sea was 66 086 km2, the average salinity – 11‰. Starting from 1961, the sea level began to fall, that is due to natural factor – natural shortage of water of previous years, but mainly (for 80%) by anthropogenic causes – the withdrawal of river runoff for the intensive irrigation. By the end of 1987, the absolute level of the water in the sea fell by 13 m below the initial level of the 1950-s and reached a critical watermark of 40,0 m abs., at which there was a division of the reservoir into two parts – the Big and Northern Aral Seas. The area of the Big Sea to the beginning of 1990 was approximately 33,5 thousand km2, the volume – 310 km3, the area of the Northern Aral Sea was 3 thousand km2, the volume – 20 km3. The total area of the Aral Sea had shrunk by 2 times, the volumes of water – more than 3 times from the conditionally natural period (1911–1961). The average salinity had reached 30‰, had being increased by 3 times. The consequences of the environmental disaster broken out were more than well known. The accuracy of the forecast, clear positions of V.V. Zinzerling and his practical activities to rationalize the system of irrigation in the region did not allow the environmental disaster to break out earlier. In order to recover the water level in the Northern Aral Sea, with the support of the World Bank, in 2005 the flow channel between the Big and Northern Aral Seas was blocked and the construction of the Kokaral separating dam was completed (Figure 1). In 2005–

1.3. The object and purposes of the environmental and geographical forecasting

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2007, according to the data of the Tastubek station the level of the Northern Aral Sea fluctuated around the mark of 42,0 (±20 cm). As the satellite images of 2001–2009 indicate, the level had stabilized and the water area of the Northern Aral Sea increased, while the Big Aral Sea continues to shrink rapidly. The eastern part of the Big Aral Sea disappeared, there was only the western deep-water part left, the current level of which is around the mark of 30,0 m according to the data of the Uzbek station of Kulandy.



Figure 1. Kokaral dam

In the early 1960s, M.I. Budyko made a conclusion of “the inevitability of the major global climate change in the direction of warming that will occur in the coming decades in case of the continuation of current trends in energy sector”. Forecast of M.I. Budyko, relying on the concept of dependence of warming from accumulating in the atmosphere anthropogenic greenhouse gases, did not consider the very real processes taking place in the geographical envelope (solid plowing of the steppes, deforestation, construction of major man-made reservoirs, desertification, etc.) and it had large-scale consequences. Climate change in the last decade, according to research, fit well within the cyclical fluctuations of different lengths which are mentioned in the second millennium. This was shown by A.V. Shnitnikov et al in their forecasts in the same years as the Budyko’s. After the lapse of time, it is important to test the matching of forecasts made by geographers in the middle of the ХХ century, when the significant anthropogenic contribution to the change climate and the environment became apparent, but at the same time the data of reconstructions of climate cycles in the past became available. According to the data of the Fourth Report on the Assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) over the past century (1906-2005) the global surface temperature has increased by 0,74±0,18°C. The linear warming trend over the last 50 years was 0,13±0,03°C за per decade. Additionally, the greatest warming was observed from 1910 to 1945 and from 1976 to 2010, and in the period of 1946-1975, there was cooling. According to a Statement of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on the status of the global climate in 2010, the decade of 2001-2010 was the warmest in the whole history of observations.

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CHAPTER 1. Environmental and geographical forecasting: the essence and...

There are several versions of the causes and consequences of contemporary climate change. According to the first version, the current trend of global warming has an anthropogenic character, according to the second – natural character. There are supporters of the third version, which claim that the warming is short-term in nature and perhaps there will be even cooling in future. Today there is no consensus among scientists about the causes of modern global climate change. Some of them believe that it is because of the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, reinforced by the accumulated greenhouse gases of anthropogenic origin, while others even suggest that the reasons lie in changes in the motion of planets in the solar system, i.e., external astronomical factors. Analysis of the sources shows that there are mostly specific (component) geographic forecasts. It is almost impossible to find comprehensive forecasts, which would completely cover the whole complexity of the natural and anthropogenic relationships. In most cases, these forecasts do not take into account the entire complex, but several components, so in some cases they are called incomplete. In geographical terms the problem of forecasting of the state of the environment merges with the problems of nature protection, restoration of natural resources, the transformation of nature, as well as the issues of territorial planning (Figure 2).





Figure 2. Forecast of environmental changes in the system of geographical researches

Separately, there are situational forecasts that reflect the peculiarity of forecasting of the state of the environment. They do not have a clearly specified time or spatial scale, but they are built for a particular situation that may arise in the future. An example of a situation forecast can be a forecast of air pollution of a certain area as a result of the current synoptic or economic and synoptic situation, etc. Sometimes, especially in the development of ecological and economic forecasts, the forecasting of changes in the natural complex in a

1.3. The object and purposes of the environmental and geographical forecasting

19

particular area and in the accounting period under the influence of one sector of the economy is distinguished as the sectoral forecasting. Since the economic sectors and individual enterprises are closely linked to the administrative territorial units, naturalterritorial complexes within administrative regions (city, district, region and so on) are considered as the forecasting objects. An example of a sectoral forecasting in this interpretation is the naturalreclamation forecast. It is the prediction of the changes that will occur in the natural landscape under the influence of reclamations, as well as in justification of the need for the conducting of the types and methods of reclamation in the forecast period. The objects of natural reclamation forecasting in this case are the reclamationgeographic complexes. Sectoral forecasts include recreational and geographic forecasts and others. Comprehensive geographical forecasting is regarded as a science-based judgment about the future state and possible changes not only of the individual parts (components) in their relationship, but also the whole object of the natural complex as a whole. Issues of complex geographical forecasting are still insufficiently developed theoretically and methodologically, and a substantiation of complex physical-geographical or economic-geographical forecasting can be found in the literature. In this case, the complex physicalgeographic forecasting is understood as scientific forecasting of changes or trends in the development of geosystems under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors. The economicgeographical forecasting refers to the process of forming of judgments about the state of economic-geographic processes and phenomena at some point in the future, and about the alternative ways of achieving them. Comprehensive forecasting is a complex problem that can be solved by constructing a system of geographical forecasting. It includes a set of sequential operations, the implementation of which is mandatory and includes the tasks of theoretical, organizational, information and research, methodical character, i.e. forecasting system includes not only the content but also the order of all the actions of forecasting, which confirms the feasibility of the use of a system approach. Stressing the need for and the possibility of using a system approach, V.B. Sochava pointed out that the prospect of it is due to the multidimensionality and integral nature of the objects of geographic forecasting. A feature of this approach is the possibility of constructing a model of a comprehensive forecasting object with the reflection of its structure and the definition of the mechanism of its functioning. The object of the comprehensive geographical forecasting is natural and territorial complex. However, due to the fact that the forecastgeographical studies involve practically unlimited range of subjects and issues, the choice of the object of the forecast should be caused, first of all, by practical or scientific necessity. At the

20

CHAPTER 1. Environmental and geographical forecasting: the essence and...

same time, the choice of the object is one of the challenges of geographic forecasting. An important element in this case are the concreteness and clarity of definition of the spatial and temporal boundaries of the object of forecasting. Establishing the extent and nature of the interaction of technical systems with the elements of the geographical environment is the most important task of geographical forecasting. In this regard, V.B. Sochava distiguished technical systems, geotechnical systems and geotechnical complexes. Technical systems include mining, processing and servicing systems, which in turn are divided into active and passive, closed and open, managed and unmanaged (Figure 3). Technical systems Mining

Processing

Passive open

Active

Closed Unmanaged



Servicing

Managed

Passive

Open Managed

Figure 3. Classification of technical systems (according to A.Yu. Reteyum, 1996) Figure 3 – Classification of technical systems (according to A.Yu. Reteyum, 1996)

The irreversible transformation, when there is a change of unstable states in

none of the states does not repeat previous is theofmost difficult to Thewhich irreversible transformation, when the there is a one, change unstable study and in forecast. states which none of the states does not repeat the previous one, systems are to designed to change properties of the environment, the isActive the most difficult study and forecast. passive ones are not designed for this purpose. Theofopen impact on the Active systems are designed to change properties the ones environment, environment by giving it substance and energy, the closed ones affect the the passive ones are not designed for this purpose. The open ones properties of the natural environment, without giving substance and energy. An impactof on the environment by giving it substance and energy, example an active controlled system are sophisticated irrigation installations. the closed ones affect the properties of the natural environment, Technical systems are so closely related to the natural conditions and processes giving substance andsystems energy.with An landscapes example of active thatwithout form highly organized unified andanintralandscape controlled system are complexes, sophisticated geosystems, called geotechnical whichirrigation are divided installations. into sub-systems of Technicalorder. systems areofsogeotechnical closely related to the a different Value systems as natural objects conditions of geographical forecasting increasesthat significantly in theorganized condition ofunified the possibility managing and processes form highly systemsof with them. landscapes and intralandscape geosystems, called geotechnical Thus, the object and are purpose of a geographical forecasting be very many complexes, which divided into sub-systems of can a different general and specific natural and economic phenomena and processes. For example, order. Value of geotechnical systems as objects of geographical the forecasting state of the natural environment by a certain temporal level, the timing increases significantly in the condition of the possibilityof the possible manifestations of managing them. of environmentally unfriendly processes, the reaction of natural complexes on extra hydration due to the possible redistribution of the river Thus, the object and purpose of a geographical forecasting can be very runoff, the degree of economic development of any region in 10-20 years, etc. many general andofspecific natural economic phenomena andof the These listed examples the objects and and purposes of forecasting indicate processes. For example, the state of the natural environment by a the research (search) nature of the ecological-geographical forecasting. Currently, certain temporal level, the timing of the possible manifestations forecasting of environmental changes under the influence of economic activity, out of the large number of possible objects and purposes of the forecast, is still the most pressing. It is exactly the state of nature and its resources in the field of human activity gives rises to the most serious conflicts and problems.

1.3. The object and purposes of the environmental and geographical forecasting

21

of environmentally unfriendly processes, the reaction of na­ tural complexes on extra hydration due to the possible redistri­ bution of the river runoff, the degree of economic development of any region in 10-20 years, etc. These listed examples of the objects and purposes of forecasting indicate of the research (search) nature of the ecological-geographical forecasting. Currently, the forecasting of environmental changes under the influence of economic activity, out of the large number of possible objects and purposes of the forecast, is still the most pressing. It is exactly the state of nature and its resources in the field of human activity gives rises to the most serious conflicts and problems. According to scientists’ opinion, there are two main ways to study the future of the state of nature: the search for deterministic components of the forecast and analysis of the propagation of stochastic processes and phenomena. Natural deterministic properties are properties and phenomena that defined and known in advance over the forecast period. This can be some practically non-changable over the forecast period natural components and phenomena: macro-forms of reliefs, boundaries of tectonic movements. Exploiting the natural rhythms as a function of climatic cycles, according to experts, it is possible to predict the natural measures in the future state of natural complexes associated with shifts of cycles. Outside the scope of the very strong anthropogenic influences, the landscape units of small ranks can be considered relatively stable over 10-15 years. Full natural landscape change can probably be in 33-35 years time, which influences the amount of precipitation and moisture processes. The second component of the forecast of the natural development of the natural environment is probabilistic natural processes and phenomena. These primarily include hard spatially predictable and practically non-predictable natural disasters. Analysis carried out by A. Medeu according to the data of the Centre of Research of Epidemiology Disasters (CRED), as well as other sources during the last century and the beginning of the current (1900-2013) showed that about 21 thousand of disasters in the world, 62% of which (13 thousand) were disasters of natural feature and 8 thousand were technogenic feature. During this period, the disasters killed about 33 million people, the vast number of victims (32,5 million) were killed in natural disasters, and only 0,02% (0,5 million) – in technogenic. The total damage amounted to 2,6 trillion USD. And the main damage (2,5 trillion) was caused by natural disasters. The greatest number of natural disasters (79%) were flooding (32%), storms (28%), epidemics (10%), earthquakes (9%). Maximum damages were inflicted by storms (940 billion USD), an earthquakes (760 billion USD), floods (590 billion USD), droughts (126 billion USD). According to the number of

22

CHAPTER 1. Environmental and geographical forecasting: the essence and...

killed people, natural disasters are distributed as follows: droughts – 11 million people, epidemics – 9,6 million, floods – 6,9 million, storms – 1,4 million (Figure 4).



Figure 4. Distribution of natural disasters by types

Analysis of the temporal distribution of disasters shows that in the XX and started XXI centuries, an increase in their number is happening (with minor fluctuations). The most intense increase in both natural and technogenic disasters occurred since the second half of the XX century. 92% (12,8 thousand) cases of natural and 95% (7,3 thousand) technogenic disasters were indicated from 1965 to 2013. This can be explained by both technical and natural causes. The first group includes the creation and improvement of the systems of monitoring, data collection and analysis, increasing the total amount of information and the number of the included in the CRED data base. The second group includes the industrial revolution and industrialization and climate change, the derivative of which is the growing number of natural and technogenic disasters. The following period includes virtually all disasters caused damage, however, the number of victims is only 16% (5,3 million) of the number of the occurred in 1900-2013. Comparative analysis of the information of the last decade of the XX century and the first decade of the XXI century shows that in 2000-2010, against 1990-1999, the number of natural disasters, the victims and the amount of damage increased by 1,4, 1,3 and 1,6 times, respectively. Number of technogenic disasters has increased by 1,6 times, deaths - by 1,2 times, and the damage is increased by 3,5 times. Analysis of the dynamics of the number of disasters and related damage and loss of life for the entire period from 1900 to 2013 shows that

1.3. The object and purposes of the environmental and geographical forecasting

23

during natural disasters in the second half of XX century against the background of the predominance of time profile of their number and damage, the number of human victims had reduced. The largest number of deaths occurred at the beginning of the period under review (1900-1965) – 29 million against 5,1 million in 1966-2013. In technogenic disasters in a continuous increase in the number of cases and damage, the maximum number of victims accounted for 1966-2013 years, it is 283 thousand against 56 thousand in 1900-1965. Such diverse temporal distributions of the tragic consequences of disasters can probably be explained by several reasons, the most important of which are the various possibilities of management of the risks of their occurrence and impact. To combat natural hazards since the second half of the XX century, the measures to reduce and prevent economic, social and environmental damage were introduced. Activities such as monitoring of the forming factors, forecasting the emergence and awareness of the people and timely taken decisions on protective measures led to the reduction of casualties. In technogenic disasters the number of victims, correlated with the production scale, at the beginning of the XX century was negligible, but increased with increasing of their volumes and technological complexity, the number of employees and the location in densely populated areas. Despite the development of security systems, the almost complete lack of forecasting capability of technogenic disasters makes getting into the zone of the negative impact of large numbers of people. Accidents occurring on the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan, are taken into account in the global statistics since 1991 – the year of receipt of state independence. According to the criteria applied in the CRED, the database from 1991 to 2013 included cases of 19 natural and 15 technogenic disasters with the total number of 574 killed people and the damage of 280 million USD. Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Republic of Kazakhstan summarizes data on Emergency Situations by more detailed criteria to submit a fuller picture of the natural and technogenic disasters in the country. Every year, in Kazakhstan there are about 5000 emergency situations of natural and technogenic character, with more than 6000 people affected, and with the number of deaths of more than 1500 people. The average annual damage from disaster reaches 25 billion tenge. In some years, the material damage from only manifestation of natural disasters exceeded 20 billion tenge. A variety of hazardous natural processes and events that might cause damage to human health, the economy and the natural environment are widespread in the country. In the process of forecasting, when there is a possibility of technological loads, sustainability of systems and sustainability of their constituent complexes are distinguished. Even with fairly diverse combination of natural systems and, consequently, a relatively stable

24

CHAPTER 1. Environmental and geographical forecasting: the essence and...

state throughout the whole geosystem, first of all, the units of small ranks fall out of it. But they can be restored or replaced, and thus the entire system can be preserved. In addition, the stability of the system is not only the stability of historical, genetic, rank, but also zonal. Stability of the system to some extent is correlated with its biological activity. Natural complexes of biologically unproductive or low productive zones developing in critical conditions of heat and moisture, which are the regulator of the regime, in principle, should not be resistant to anthropogenic pressures. An example of this can be complexes of desert and tundra areas, productivity and sustainability of which are determined accordingly by the amount of moisture and heat. Despite the apparent degree of abstraction, the problem of stability has great practical significance. It allows to design the distribution of economic objects based on the actual natural capacity and the natural environment. Assessment of the current and future state of the natural environment is possible only with the socio-economic and ecological points of view. Latter determine not only the major objects and aspects of natural assessments, but also allow to identify environmentally critical issues that require priority decisions. The course of the variance of the development of natural environment can affect primarily the following socio-economic and environmental factors: – state and use of natural resources; – distribution of economic facilities and related emissions of pollutants; – the planned for commercial purposes transformations of nature; – possible changes in technology and engineering. All these by-factor data eventually lead the researcher to the assessment of ecological-geographic and economic consequences of the impact of economic activity on the environment. The main factors determining the future state of the environment, are the process of rapid industrialization, increasing consumption of energy and raw materials in the growth of waste, polluting the environment, as well as the rapid growth of population, determining the increased exploitation of natural resources. Group of anthropogenic factors causing change of geosystems is related to external factors (reasons) by A.G. Isachenko, the internal causes contribute to self-development (evolution) of the systems. It is necessary to take into account such an important impact as the inertia of occurring in the ecosystems processes, which is mainly determined by the duration of the impact of factors and resistance of geosystems in relation to external forces. According to the opinion of Yu.G. Saushkin, the considering of the inertia is one of the main principles of geographic forecasting. In this regard, T.V. Zvonkova, Yu.G. Saushkin and others believe that the

1.3. The object and purposes of the environmental and geographical forecasting

25

major factors in the geographic environment are relatively easy to forecast. This is an important theoretical condition of geographical forecasting, such are the groups of lithogenic, hydroclimatic, biogenic and some other factors. In the study, each of these groups should be considered in conjunction with each other. The role of natural and anthropogenic factors is especially carefully defined, as the flow of processes and phenomena in nature, caused by human activity, is at the same due to the local natural environment. For example, the forecasting of changes in the landscapes under the influence of drainage activities is impossible without stability or flexibility of soils. Impact of one and the same force will have different results on heavy and light soils. Therefore, it is impossible to forecast the changes that will occur after the reclamation without a thorough study of these conditions throughout the study area. The main objectives of ecological-geographical forecasting is to obtain reliable indicators of the current state of the natural environment and the determination of its major changes for a specific term period for the purpose of planning the rational use of natural resources, as well as evaluation of promising conditions for human life and the distribution of production facilities. Practical value of geographical forecasting is determined by its accuracy. So, the main purpose of ecological-geographic forecasting is to obtain reliable data about the future state of natural conditions and resources necessary for the prospective assessment of the conditions of human life and the distribution of production. In connection with this, forecasting can be divided into several stages: – the first stage involves the collection, systematization and analysis of baseline data in order to determine the main directions of the development of the forecasted object in the past and the present; – the second stage of forecasting of the object includes all opera tions to establish the most important trends in the development of the object and the demand for natural resources of the sectors of the economy according to the planned level of their devel opment; – the third step is to assess the reliability of all obtained results and the development of recommendations for the sustainbale use of natural resources. Thus, the object can be understood as a material or a substantial natural formation, on which the process of forecasting is aimed, for example, a geosystem of any rank, changed (or subject to change in the future) under the influence of anthropogenic or natural factors. Those properties (indicators) of these geosystems, which characterize the direction, degree, speeds and scales of such changes can be considered as the subject of forecasting.

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CHAPTER 1. Environmental and geographical forecasting: the essence and...

Issues for discussion

1. Indicate the objects of physical-geographic forecasting according to A.G. Isachenko. 2. Give examples of specific and sectoral forecasting by V.V. Tzinzerling and M.I. Budyko. 3. Give examples of situation forecasting. 4. Natural-technical geosystems by A.Yu Reteyum, give examples. 5. Which natural properties and phenomena can be attributed to natural deterministic and probabilistic? Give examples. 6. How do you understand the term “stability of the system”? Explain with an example. 7. What factors the verification of forecasts depend on?

27

2.1. Factors of the environment of forecasting

Chapter

2

Ecological and geographical forecasting: factors, space and time

2.1. Factors of the environment of forecasting The success and reliability of ecological and geographical forecasting are determined by many circumstances, including correctness of the choice of main factors and methods, ensuring the problem solving. Geographic forecasting of the state of the natural environment is multifactoral, and these factors are physically different: nature, society, technology, etc. It is necessary to analyze these factors and select those that can to some extent control the state of the environment – to stimulate, to stabilize or to limit unfavorable or favorable to the human factors of its development. These factors can be external and internal. External factors are, for example, such sources of impact on the environment as open pits and dump pits of overburden rocks, completely destroying the natural landscape, smoke emissions from chimney-stalks, polluting the air, industrial and domestic wastes, entering the reservoirs, many other sources of environmental impact. Size and force of the impact of such factors can be foreseen and be taken into account beforehand in the plans for the protection of the nature of the region. The internal factors include the properties of the nature itself, the potential of its components and landscapes in general. Out of the components of the natural environment, involved into the process of predicting, depending on its purposes and the local geographical conditions, the relief, rocks, water bodies, vegetation, etc. can

28

CHAPTER 2. Ecological and geographical forecasting: factors, space and time

became fundamental. But part of these components remain almost unchanged during the projected lifetime, for example for 25–30 years ahead. So, the relief, rocks, as well as the processes of slow tectonic subsiding or uplift of the territory, can be considered relatively constant factors in the development of the environment. The relative stability of these factors over time allows to use them as a background and frame of the forecasting. Other much more dynamic factors, for example, dust storms, droughts, earthquakes, hurricanes, mudslides have a meaning of probability values in geographic forecasting. In specific conditions, the force of their impact on the landscape and economic activity will depend not only on them themselves, but also on the stability of the natural background on which they influence. Therefore, when predicting, a geographer uses, for example, the indicators of dissection of the relief, vegetation, mechanical soil composition and many other environmental components. Knowing the properties of the components and their interrelationship, differences in the response to external impacts, the response of the natural environment both on its own parameters and on the factors of economic activity can be foreseen. But even after selecting not all, but only the main natural components, best suited to solving the problem, the researcher still has to deal with a very large number of parameters of the relationship of each of the properties of the components and the types of technological loads. Therefore, geographers look for integral expressions of the sum of components, i.e. of the natural environment as a comprehensive whole. Such comprehensive whole is the natural landscape with its historically established structure. It expresses a kind of “memory” of the development of landscape, a long series of statistical data, necessary for predicting the state of the natural environment. Many people believe that the degree of diversity of its morphogenetic structure can serve as the indicator of the stability of the landscape to external loads, especially to pollution. The regulatory processes enhance and the stability is maintained in the natural systems with increasing the diversity of natural systems and of its constituent components. The stability can be disturbed by extreme natural processes and anthropogenic pressures exceeding the potential possibilities of the landscape. By reducing the diversity of landscape, anthropogenic factors usually reduce its stability as well. But anthropogenic factors may also increase diversity and stability of the landscape. Thus, the stability of the landscape of suburban areas with parks, gardens, ponds, i.e. on the sufficiently diverse in structure and origin territories, is higher than it was before, when fields with agricultural monoculture crops predominated here. Natural landscapes with a simple unvaried structure, developing in conditions of temperature and moisture extremes, are the least stable. Such landscapes are characteristic, for example, to desert and tundra zones. Potential

2.2. Types and classification of forecasts

29

instability of these territories to many types of technological loads is enhanced by the incompleteness of their natural systems – the lack of soil and vegetation cover in many areas or its inefficiency. 2.2. Types and classification of forecasts A huge number of forecasts developed in various sciences, economics, social sphere, ecology necessitates their typology, classification and systematization by characteristic features. There are different classifications of geographical forecasts depending on the approaches, time depth (look-ahead period), territorial coverage and other characteristics (Table 1). Exploratory, normative and comprehensive forecasting are distinguished. The main objective of the exploratory (genetic, resource) forecasting is to ascertain the ways of the development of an object or a process with keeping the existing tendencies. Moreover, it is assumed that the observed trends cannot be changed by a compulsory decision.

Table 1. Classification of forecasts by aspect features (according to V.A. Lisichkin) Features Relation of the experts , who are developing the forecast (predictor), to the object of the forecast Purpose of the forecast

Purpose of the forecast

Degree of consciousness and reasonableness Form of the evidence of the forecasting results System of knowledge, on which the method of predicting is based Method of predicting

Types of forecasts and their characteristics Active (constructive and destructive) – predictor impacts on the object of the forecast Passive – predictor does not interact with the object Confirmative (affirmative) – to confirm or refute the hypothetical notions about the object Planification – to create a foundation for planning General Special Managerial for the decisions regarding the management of the object Intuitive – made on the basis of unconscious methods Logic – having logical substantiation of the methods Quantitative – with calculated parameters Qualitative – without quantitative expressions Household – are based on simple repetition of events Scientific – are based on the laws acting in the world Obtained through general scientific methods Obtained through inter-scientific methods Obtained through special scientific methods

30

CHAPTER 2. Ecological and geographical forecasting: factors, space and time Number of methods

Simplex – when one method is applied Duplex – when two methods are applied Complex – when more than two methods are applied Look-ahead period of the preLong-term: economic (10–13 years), dedicted event velopment of science and technology (5–7 years), weather (10–100 days), hydrological (10–30 days), sea (10 days), avalanches (2–5 days) Medium-term – 2–5 years, 3–5 years, 3–10 days, up to 1 day, 15–48 hours respectively Short-term – up to 2 years, 1–3 years, 1–2 days, up to 1 day, 1–24 hours, 2–15 hours respectively Nature of the process of predict- Continuous ing Discrete Nature of the object of forecast Natural-scientific and scientific-technical Economic, social and political Natural resources Structure of the object of forecast Explicitly deterministic Probabilistic Stability of the object in time Of stationary objects Of non-stationary objects Large scale of the object of Sublocal forecast Local Superlocal Subglobal Global Superglobal Number of the forecasted objects Singular – forecasts of one object of one scale Binary – forecasts of two objects of one scale Multiplet – forecasts of more than two objects of one scale Nature of the connection of Conditional – forecast of events that occur the predicted object with other on the condition that there will be other objects events Independent – will occur independently of others

Normative forecasting is based on determining of the optimal option for the future development of the object within the scientifically based needs and norms. Its task is to identify the ways and timing in order to achieve the desired state of the object in the future in accordance with the intended purpose. Comprehensive forecasting appeared at the junction of these two types of forecasting and is used to elaborate comprehensive target programs for the development of districts and cities. According to the content, specific and comprehensive geographic forecasts are distinguished. Specific forecasts are needed for solving such tasks as reasoning of the involvement of natural resources in economic circulation, predicting the development of

2.3. Methodological and methodical trends of development of geographic ...

31

intersectoral complexes and territorial socio-economic systems of different hierarchical ranks, improvement of population distribution system, internal and external economic relations, the development of plans of social development of cities and districts, justification for recreational activities, etc. The aggregate of all specific geographic forecasts is a comprehensive forecast. According to the object of study, I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada proposes to distinguish forecasts between: natural science: meteorological, hydrological, biological, biomedical, cosmological, physicochemical; science and technology management of scientific and technical progress in industry, construction, agriculture, transport, etc.; social science: socio-medical, socio-geographic, socio-environmental, psychological, economic, demographic, philological and ethnographic, etc. 2.3. Spatial and temporal scales of ecological and geographical forecasting Validity, accuracy, and therefore the value of the results of forecasting depend on the choice of the scale of spatial and temporal predictive units. Choosing spatial units is defined by the purpose and level of organization of the forecasting object. The following geographic forecasts of natural and economic systems: global, regional and local - are distinguished according to territorial scales. Global geographic forecasts are made on a scale of the whole surface of the earth, they cover territories in the millions and ten millions of square kilometers. Object on a continental scale is the whole territory of the continent as an area for the location of production and its development on the basis of natural resources and as ecological environment of human life. Regional forecasts are the forecasts within individual natural areas, provinces, regions in an area of hundreds and tens of thousands of square kilometers, and local forecasts are the forecasts within the natural systems of the topological level in an area of hundreds and tens of square kilometers. The problems of the appropriate scale are solved at the regional and local levels considering the natural features of the territory. Studying the problems of predicting the interaction between nature and society, N. N. Chizhov and Yu.G. Lipets came to a conclusion that from the standpoints of economic geography the global forecast should be disaggregated for the forecasts by regions and countries. A scheme of territorial hierarchy consisting of five levels: the global system, regions (groups of countries), countries (states), districts, localities – is proposed for the introduction of spatial differentiation. The dynamics of the interaction between nature and society is expressed differently at different levels. For example,

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CHAPTER 2. Ecological and geographical forecasting: factors, space and time

the problem of fresh water is typical for regions and localities in countries of different types; the problem of the clearness of the air is acute at the level of localities also for a group of developed capitalist countries, etc. This approach allows us to consider not only the specifics of natural laws, but also the fundamental differences between the socio-economic formations. The interactions between global and regional geographical forecasts are conditioned by the fact that the geographical cover is represented by a united system, the state of which depends on the state of its constituent large parts-regions. There is also a feedback: the global system has an impact on regional geosystems, which causes them to change. Predicting changes in the geographic cover and its regional units should consider the interrelations of these two levels of organization of geosystems. Global environmental changes of the planet, quickly growing, disturbing, fraught with socio-ecological catastrophe, are closely linked to human activities, carried out on a regional scale. But, on the other hand, the effects of global changes begin to show at the regional level (for example, climate, chemical composition of the atmosphere, etc.). In the last decades of the XX century, developing the foundations of the planetary geo-ecoforecasting (especially, predicting global climate changes of the Earth) have acquired great scientific and practical value. The interest to global predicting is stimulated by the following circumstances: 1) the impact of human activities on the nature have spread almost to the whole geographic cover and was the main cause of the environmental degradation; 2) the impact of anthropogenic factors is manifested not so much through a change in the state of individual parts (spheres) of geographic shell cover, but through a change in the processes of their interactions (for example, atmosphere and hydrosphere); 3) the impact of man on nature is made within the environmental situation of specific regions, in which the population and eco­ nomics are so closely linked with natural components that form united natural and anthropogenic geosystems with them. This implies an objective relationship between geo-forecasts of different scale levels, having a common purpose – the need to harmonization of economic (and other kinds) of human activity carried out on the real scale of the territory at local and regional level, with criteria that ensure maintaining stability of geographical cover as a whole. The main objective of regional geographic forecasts is an assessment environmental changes under the influence of economic activity on a certain territory. This requires to take into account the spatial natural features of the selected region: geographical location, spatial localization of phenomena, processes and objects, as well as differences in the intensity of their manifestation, functions of the place of the object, dimension and correlation of genetically homogeneous and heterogeneous areas with each other, sizes and

2.3. Methodological and methodical trends of development of geographic ...

33

directions of different kinds of movements, analysis of distances, regionalization as a classification of phenomena in space. Regional geographic forecast includes three subsystems: economic and geographic, physiographic and synthesis subsystem. Function of the latter is a complex assessment of a particular territory based on the analysis of natural and socio-economic conditions determining the current state of the region. At the first stage of the study the current state of the natural environment of the region is revealed and a preliminary specific forecast is compiled. In the second stage of forecasting, specific forecasts for the individual components of natural and economic geosystems are developed and linked, their impact on environmental change is assessed. At the final stage the final forecast of interaction between society and nature is made, including optimal variant of distribution of productive forces, and forecasting of the state of the natural environment. At the final stage the final forecast of interaction between society and nature is made, including optimal variant of distribution of productive forces, and forecasting of the state of the natural environment. Global forecasts provide a search for global strategy, regional ones provide specific regional activities; global ones do not require detailed binding of findings to the surface of the planet, regional ones have a strict territorial binding; global ones consider systems in which there are no inputs, regional ones consider systems with widely represented diverse inputs, states of which within the regional forecast are unpredictable. In accordance with this also forecasting methods must be differed. Global forecasts are based on deductive models; regional ones have a statistical character and are based on the actual material. Temporal units of forecasting. Along with territorial units in the geographical forecasting, the correctness and comprehensive validity of selection of temporal operating units have a great importance. In geographic forecasting such temporal characteristics as a “characteristic time” and “time scale” are used. Characteristic time is a time during which the transition of the system to an equilibrium state, if the system was derived from it. Objects of different nature have different characteristic time, the difference in which is used to be called the time scale (Figure 5). Territorial predictive units are in a close dependence on the ratio of the specified look-ahead period of the forecast and time of significant shifts in the structure of geographic objects. For example, with the look-ahead period of 25 years in the major economic regions, the first level, at which there will be fairly significant structural changes, will be the intraregional subarea. Therefore, when predicting the territorial structure of a farm of an economic region, the main operating unit will be the intraregional subarea, with the following scheme of taxonomic units – the country, the economic region, the economic subarea (in the rank of the field), the intraregional subarea, the industrial unit, the economic facility.

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CHAPTER 2. Ecological and geographical forecasting: factors, space and time





Figure 5. Types of geographic forecasts

In the study of the duration of the geographical processes in time (past – present – future), it should be noted that its speed in different periods varies considerably. The rapid growth of production leads not only to changes, but also to the accelerating of natural processes. Therefore, it is necessary to take into account all the changes in the ratio of time and space, i.e. at each stage of predictive calculations the indicators of spatial and temporal dependencies should be used. All the times, which have to be operated by the researcher in geographic forecasting, can be represented in the form of look-ahead period, the internally historical time of natural system (the time of the full cycle of its development), the time of duration of the individual stages of development of the system, the time of duration of the stages of the individual steps, the minimum characteristic time, i.e. the time, in which the changes of phenomena can be recorded. According to lead time (time scale) geographic forecasts can be divided into the following: seasonal (lead time of less than 1 year), shortterm (up to 15 years), long-term (several decades), super long-term (several centuries or more). Seasonal forecast primarily reflects future changes in meteorological conditions, seasonal development of nature and other natural events, determined mainly by the method of phenological indication. This is actually the first stage of forecasting, differentiating the contemporary and predicted states of natural resources and phenomena. Short-term forecasts allow to assess the first signs of restructuring, taking place in the geosystem as a result of technogenic impact. Medium- and long-term forecasts are of great strategic significance: they reflect the state of the predicted events in the near future. Opportunities of super long-term forecasts are limited by many factors, however, there are already science-based forecasts with lead time of 1000 years and more. These are developments of I.I. Krasnov, M.G. Eigenson and others. Duration of the forecast period should be calculated on

2.3. Methodological and methodical trends of development of geographic ...

35

the basis of real opportunities for economic development, taking into account progress in science and technology. At the present level of development of forecasting and geographical researches the permissible duration of the total estimated forecast period can be up to 20-25 years. Due to the fact that the lead time or look-ahead period of the forecast change, and at the same time also forecasting model should change. Since the rate of change of different components of landscape is unequal, then, depending on lead time, one of them or another (relief for long-term forecasting, soil and hydrography for shortterm, etc.) can be taken unchanged. However, this does not mean the complete study of the entire complex of natural components and their interrelationships are not required for predicting. Stressing the need to deeply, fundamentally explore the entire structure of natural complexes, N.A. Solntsev believed that a correct forecast can be done , if it is clear, how the individual parts of the landscape are organized, what is their dynamics, relationship and general morphological structure of the entire landscape. Along with the specified factors, laws of development of nature are used in determining the general and intermediate terms, i.e. time scale of the forecast should be based on the cyclicality and rhythmicity of natural events and processes. In this regard, the stability of temporal connections is achieved, taking into account the interdependencies of all natural processes and phenomena, serving as an object of predictive researches, which, in turn, are characterized by certain cyclicality, rhythmicity or periodicity of development. At the same time, associativity and full compliance of time-frames of the forecast and socio-economic development are important in a geographic forecast. Unified temporal periodization of the forecast and plan increases the applied value of a geographic forecast, as it allows to use directly the forecast results in planning, and then in the implementation of plans – and in designing. Each project of economic and other activities, related to the use of natural resources should be based on geographic forecasting data. Acomplex problem of geographic forecasting is accounting anthropogenic factors. Analysis of the history of the development of technology and anthropogenic impact on nature shows that along with their complexity there is a process of improving the management of these impacts. Technological impact converts from a spontaneous to a highly organized one, controlled by people. In this regard, in the preparation of super long-term forecasts, the role of anthropogenic factors in the changing of the natural environment in the future should not be exaggerated. Special attention should be paid to the trends in the development of nature, determined on the basis of paleogeographic studies. Geographical forecasting, especially long-term and super long-term is hampered by the static nature of study of natural phenomena and processes in the past. Despite the extensive development, methods for studying the landscapes in

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CHAPTER 2. Ecological and geographical forecasting: factors, space and time

dynamics haven’t brought reliable quantitative indicators yet (rate of natural processes, the interdependence of natural components at different stages of geosystems development). 2.4. Stages of forecasting Development of geographic forecasts is a sequence of several logically interrelated steps, including: – setting goals and objectives of the research; – determination of chronological and territorial frameworks of the research; – collection and systematization of all the information on the – functioning and development of territorial systems and their functional subsystems; – construction of an “objectives tree”, the choice of methods of forecasting, identifying constraints and inertial aspects of the development of the predicted object or process; – development of specific geographical forecasts: natural con­ ditions and resources, the territorial organization of the pro-­ ductive forces, inter-industry complexes, population and settle­ ment system, etc.; – synthesis of specific geographic forecasts; – development of basic variants of forecast; – preparation of a preliminary forecast; – expert examination and preparation of the final forecast; – adjustment of forecast; – use of forecasting results for solving theoretical and practical problems of geography. System of main stages of geographical forecast includes theoretical and information support to forecasting, analytical work and selection of the method, as well as ensuring the reliability of the forecast (verification of the forecast). Theoretical support to forecasting is based on the latest achievements of geography. Its basis is the doctrine of the ecosystems formed under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors. These factors contribute to dynamism, sustainability and nature of relationships in territorial systems. When they are violated, there are irreversible changes in the geosystems, the study of which is of great importance for the forecasting. Informational support to the forecast is based on gathering information on the theoretical issues of forecasting with regard to a specific object and obtaining of specific information about it. Informational materials may be obtained both as a result of special studies (field, stationary, semi-stationary), and in the statistical agencies, scientific reports, literature, etc. The following types of information sources about a forecasting object are distinguished: a source of factographic information (contains the actual data needed for forecasting);

2.2. Types and classification of forecasts

37

source of expert information (expert assessments for forecasting). The amount of information about the object of forecast contained in the values of the variable, is called information capability of the variable of the object of forecasting, and the aggregate of all the information about the predicted object digested in accordance with the purpose and methods of forecasting, - an array of information. Reliability and accuracy of the forecast determine its practical value. Given the fact that the object of forecast is characterized by multidimensionality, respectively, also the error in determining the forecast accuracy will consist of the sum of the errors of all the predicted events. Yu.G. Simonov indicates that the value of the set of errors, determining the accuracy of forecast, is the assessment of the feasibility of geographical forecast. Reliability and accuracy of geoforecast depend on three main points: 1) the level of theoretical knowledge as well as knowledge of the object of the forecast; 2) the degree of reliability and completeness of the original information; 3) the correct choice of methods of forecasting taking into account all the features. Assessment of the reliability of forecasts (verification) is to determine the magnitude of the possible deviations in the results of forecasting and in comparison of various design parameters in the following ways: direct verification, i.e. obtaining the same value of the forecast, but by a different method; indirect verification or confirmation of the forecast by its performance by other researchers using other sources of information; evaluation of the forecast results by the independent expert examination (expert verification); backup verification carried out by obtaining the values from the other (adjacent) forecast; inverse verification when forecasting results are checked for the retrospective period. The accuracy and reliability of the forecast according to A.G. Yemelyanov can be improved in the following ways: 1. A thorough study of the regularities of formation and devel­ opment of natural processes that lead to the creation of more advanced models of geosystems and the improvement of forecasting of their changes. 2. Parallel and simultaneous use of several methods and techniques. 3. Checking developed forecasting methods on those objects which are similar to that predicted by their nature and complexity and on which the predicted processes are clearly discernible. 4. Verification of forecasts can be performed by using the method of expert examination. American scientist D. Martino developed the so-called “polling model” helping to assess the predicted developments. According to the “model”, the experts are challenged by the issues of the possibility of repeating the procedures of forecasting by any researcher (and not just the author) and logicality of conclusions about the validity of

CHAPTER 2. Ecological and geographical forecasting: factors, space and time

38



the assumptions, the amount and accuracy of the actual data on which the forecast is based.

Issues for discussion

1. What are the main factors of the environment of forecasting, give examples. 2. Give aspect signs according to the classification of forecasts by V. N. Lisichkin. 3. Basis of classification by the objects of forecasting by I.V. Bestuzhev-Lade. 4. Difference of exploratory forecasting from normative one. 5. Classification of the objects of forecasting by the territorial scale. 6. Types of geographical forecasts depending on the temporal units of forecasting.

39

3.1. Main approaches and principles

Chapter

3

Methodological approaches, principles and methods of ecological and geographical forecasting

3.1. Main approaches and principles Basis for the choice of approaches to forecasting is the purpose of scientific research. Two main methodological approaches are distinguished in forecasting: genetic and normative. The genetic approach is to forecast the future development based on an assessment of the original level of the present and patterns of development identified by the researcher. The regulatory approach is to analyze those phenomena and conditions that must be considered to achieve the purpose of forecasting. Other methodological approaches should include the following: 1. Historical approach is to consider each phenomenon based on its historical forms. Relationship of various historical forms of existence of one and the same phenomenon means that the current state of the studied object is a natural result of its previous development and future state is a natural result of the development in the past and the present. 2. Integrated approach includes consideration of phenomena in their relationships and dependencies, using the methods of research and other sciences for that. Integrated approach in geographical forecasting is used in the complexity of the object of forecasting itself. 3. Systematic approach is to consider objects of forecasting as systems and the use of systemic methods for their research (descrip­tion, explanation, prediction, design, etc.).

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CHAPTER 3. Methodological approaches, principles and methods of ecological and ...

4. Systematic-structural approach involves structuring, parame-­ terization and formalizing of the systems. 5. One of the specific manifestations of the structural approach in addressing major social problems in the management of the society as a whole, as well as industries and territorial and economic objects, is program-targeted approach. Its basis is formed by the development of targeted complex programs designed to address major social and economic problems. 6. Ecological approach is to analyze the interaction between society and nature from the perspective of dynamic equilibrium between society and nature. 7. The basis of the social approach is the interests of people, territorial and ethnic communities of people, society as a whole. The main purpose of geographical forecasting is to obtain reliable data on the future state of the natural and socio-economic territorial systems, providing individual and corporate decision-makers the information necessary for prospective evaluation of the human living condition and the location of production. In the preparation of geographical forecast two main questions should be explored: how man affects the nature and how the changed by a human nature affects his life and production in the future. Accordingly, the geographical forecasting is challenged by a task to identify trends in the development of the landscape envelope of the Earth as a whole and its individual regions and components influenced by three main factors – abiogenic, biogenic and anthropogenic. Important task of geographical forecast is the search of stable relations (structural, functional, spatial, temporal, etc.) between the com­ ponents of geosystems. This is due to multidimensionality of the object of forecasting – the territorial system of a certain region. To overcome the barrier of multidimensionality, it is necessary to use the following approaches of general scientific forecasting: – decomposition techniques, i.e. a breakdown of the whole into component parts that differ by a more simplicity and accessibility of research; – application of simple indicators that reflect the most important predictive factors or their amount; – aggregation, i.e. combining of several indicators into one. Consequently, synthesis and analysis of natural and socio-economic processes and phenomena are used in the geographic forecasting simultaneously. Given the chain nature of the change of the components of territorial systems, one of the main tasks of forecasting is to establish a structure of relationships in the natural complex, the solution of which determines the success of landscape forecasting. Vertical relationships contribute to the spread of anthropogenic and other influences deep down (from one component to another), horizontal ones cause the spread of the influence in breadth and changing landscape structure.

3.1. Main approaches and principles

41

Geoforecasting should be considered as a component part of general scientific forecasting, so it is based on many scientific principles developed in prognostics (with all significant differences between economic and geographic and physiographic forecasting). General scientific principles of geographic forecasting are: – historical (genetic) principle, which is the analysis of the predicted object (phenomenon) in the development process; “time samples” are explored in the historic unity; – principle of the analysis of embryonic forms of phenomena, processes that may develop in the future; search of “rudiments of the future in the present”; – phasing principle: forecasting passes through several common steps, at each of which certain tasks of forecasting, obtaining and analyzing the initial information, are set; the choice of methods, evaluation of the reliability and accuracy of the forecast are made; – the principle of multivariate forecasting: geographical forecasting (the result of forecasting process) cannot be unique (univariate) as the problems of determining the direction and results of the development of complex, different quality systems are solved, in which only 2-3 options of the prospects of one element of the system provide a variety of options with regard to a whole, which requires the probabilistic approach with a high degree of uncertainty; – geographical forecast should be multivariate, flexible, to take into account the incompleteness of knowledge about the environment and human society, because we are talking about forecasting of such extremely complex phenomena as the dynamics of the level of Caspian Sea, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere or the change in the population size of the Earth; – the principle of associativity (principle of systemic coherence): predicting of the development of the object should be done in its interaction with other objects; knowing the course of development of some structural elements and parts of one or another geosystem make it possible to give more precise forecast of other, less well known elements and parts; – the principle of inertance, taking into account the directions and rates of historical process; this principle should be used in predicting the development of natural and industrial systems with their “chains” of connections between the components of the economy and nature; – the principle of comparisons, analogies, collations (the principle of “comparativeness”), which gives a possibility to take into account the already traversed paths of the more developed geosystems to predict the future of the less developed systems; – the principle of continuity, indicating the need for continual clarification and revision of forecasts, since the purposes are changing, new patterns and trends of development, improving methods of predicting that allows to improve the project and to make timely and appropriate adjustments.

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CHAPTER 3. Methodological approaches, principles and methods of ecological and ...

Besides the indicated ones, there are many general and specific prin­ciples, ferent regulating the production of geographical forecasts at dif­ levels. These are, above all, the following forecasting prin­ciples: – the principle of consistency – requires approval of specific forecasts of different nature and lead time; – the principle of systemacy – implies interconnectedness and subordination of the elements of the object of forecasting, as well as predictive background; – the principle of profitability – is the excess of the economic effect from the use of the forecast over the costs of its developing; – the principle of spatio-temporal unity – involves forecasting of changes in natural systems, both in space and in time. The latter principle is connected with the need to investigate the stability of geosystems to external natural and anthropogenic factors. This problem should be solved by breaking it into parts in two directions: the stability of the individual functions of geosystems and influence of major external factors on the stability of geosystems. Issues for discussion

1. The essence of genetic and regulatory approaches in forecasting. 2. Specify the basic principles of ecological and geographical forecsating. 3. Features of the system approach in the study of the object. 4. How is multi-dimensionality of the object expressed? What are the ways to overcome it. 5. Manifestation of the principle of comparisons. Give examples. 6. How do you understand the principle of associativity or systemic coherence. Explain with examples.

3.2. Methods of forecasting The purpose and object of the forecast determine the choice of its methods. Methods of theoretical and practical developments of the forecast are understood as methods of geographic forecasting. There are many methods of geographical forecasting, and their number is constantly growing. The choice of this or that forecasting method depends on the purpose of research, information base, the nature of processing of the initial information, so each specific research and forecasting stage correspond to certain methods. These methods can be divided into three groups: general scientific [analysis and synthesis, logic (induction and deduction), extrapolation and inter­ polation, analogy, experiment, etc.]; interscientific (modeling, ope­ra­tions research, statistical, expert assessments, etc.) and specific scientific (evaluation of the prospects of geographic location, functional zoning of the territory, cartographic, etc.). Let us consider the most common methods of geographical forecasting (Figure 6). Logical methods. The basis of these methods is the use of a certain sequence of mental operations. The widespread use in the study of territorial systems is due to their high complexity, diversity of

3.2. Methods of forecasting

43

interrelationships between natural and economic systems, longtime forming of the objects of forecasts. The general scientific logical methods include methods of induction and deduction.

Figure 6. Classification of forecasting of methods

By the method of induction the cause-and-effect relationships between objects and phenomena are established. Investigation is carried out from the particular to the general by identifying similarities and differences in the development of the object. In forecasting, this method is used to obtain probabilistic judgments when there is insufficient information base, i.e. in the absence of a long series of statistical data. Method of deduction is a shift from the general to the particular and the individual, and the derivation of the particular and individual from the total in the process of learning. This method is used to determine the strategy of prognostic events. Method of intersystem analysis proposed by A.L. Chizhevskyy back in the 20s for two periodically connected systems – solar activity and rhythms of natural processes – are widely spread in geographical forecasting. The 11-year period of solar activity is mentioned as the main period, influencing the many natural processes of the Earth – runoffs of rivers and floods , avalanches and mudslides, landslides and dust storms, and others. This period is used to predict many natural processes. Deviations from the 11-year cycles are explained by both the properties of natural processes themselves and the perception of solar rhythms by specific natural and economic background, the underlying surface of the Earth. This makes it necessary to predict natural processes taking into account local landscapes and economic features of the region.

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CHAPTER 3. Methodological approaches, principles and methods of ecological and ...

Methods of expert assessments. They are used in the conditions where there is no sufficient theoretical basis (justification) of the development of the object. There use is justified also in cases where there is no representative and reliable statistics of the characteristics of the object, there is great uncertainty of the operational environment of the object, in forecasting socioeconomic objects, subject to the strong influence of scientific and technological progress, as well as in predicting under conditions of a shortage of time or extreme conditions (Figure 7).

Figure 7. The technological scheme of development of the expert forecast

Methods of experts assessments are divided into individual and group ones. The first are based on independent expert opinions. The forecast is formed based either on an interview with an expert or through a long-time and careful work (method of analytical assessments). Lack of individual expert methods is the subjectivity of expert’s assessments. The second type of expert assessments is based on collective opinion of experts on the prospects of the development of the objects or the process, on the repeatability of these or those phenomena, etc. However, in this case it is impossible to avoid the disadvantages associated with the influence of authority, the role of the majority, etc. The most widespread method of group expert assessments is a “Delphi” method. Its essence lies in the sequential survey of expert opinion – specialists in different fields of science and technology to obtain the informational base for forecasting. The obtained information reflects the individual expert assessments, which are based both on the logical analysis and the intuitive conceptions. In the next stage, the different series of questionnaires with information and opinions, arising from the previous, is used. In the development and processing of questionnaires these principles are followed: questions in the questionnaires should be formulated so that it was

3.2. Methods of forecasting

45

possible to quantify the opinions of experts; survey of experts is carried out on rounds, in each of which the questions and answers are more and more specified and refined; after each round the experts get familiar with the results of the survey; the expert’s appraisal of both their own assessments and those which differ from the majority opinion is made; processing of the answers is carried out sequentially from round to round to obtain generalizing characteristics. After the final processing of the answers, the relatively reasoned opinion of the expert group is formulated. The reliability of the forecast by the “Delphi” method depends on the following conditions: – the expert groups should be stable and have a limited number; – time between each round of the survey should not exceed one month; – questions in the questionnaire should be clearly stated; – the number of rounds should be sufficient to obtain reliable results; – reliable methods of consistency of assessments of various experts are necessary; – the impact of public opinion on the results of the examination should be considered; – the experts should be encouraged to obtain reliable and correct assessments. Method of program forecasting. This method involves the development of classification of the type of events that need to be analyzed, and the initial list of experts to study the problem. For each type of problems the authority of each expert is defined on a 100-point scale using objective methods. At the first stage, the formulation of the problem is made by listing the events, the time and the probability of which is called final. Scenario of these events is given to the experts who have the highest “weight” on the issue. Experts define the conditions under which it is possible to assess these events. Then the probability of occurrence of the event and the probable amount of time between the time of fulfillment of the condition and the time of occurrence of the event are estimated. The final forecast of occurrence of this event is carried out on the basis of averaging the assessments of individual experts, taking into account their “weight”. Method of heuristic forecasting got its name due to the homogeneity of the forms of mental activity of an expert. This method is used to obtain the conceptions about the prospects of development of a narrow field of science and technology on the basis of a systematic processing of forecasting assessments of the groups of experts. Techniques of collection and processing the expert’s survey results in many respects are similar to that of the “Delphi” method. The difference is the more elaboration of theoretical foundations, special methods of preparing questionnaires and tables, possibility of their computer processing.

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CHAPTER 3. Methodological approaches, principles and methods of ecological and ...

Method of collective generation of ideas, or method of “brainstorming”. While using this method, an avalanche-like proposing of new ideas and enhancing of the creative potential of the group of experts occur. This is achieved as follows: – each participant has an opportunity to vision of the problem through the eyes of colleagues; – the skills of the collective creative thinking are developed. The results are summarized collectively. The following tasks are solved: – to provide definitive answers to the set questions; – a plan to solve the relevant tasks is formed; – the ideas that can be used to solve a particular problem are selected; – new aspects of the studied problem are established. Another method of expert estimates is the method of PATTERN. At the initial stage, the development trends of the projected object are studied and their expert assessment is given to produce judgments about the possible ways of changing of the object. Then the best options and the means to achieve the main objectives are defined. A scenario of the projected object is prepared for this. Scenario is a method of determining a logical sequence of probabilistic events to determine the development alternatives. Event is an action that may or may not occur under certain set of conditions. This method is widely used in solving the problems of forecasting scientific and technological progress and development of the sectors of industry. Method of goal of tree. Its essence lies in the representing applied to the target of the branch of the tree of goals (forecast graph) with a hierarchy and characteristics of levels of objects of study. Tree of goals is a systematic record of the stages of solving of the set problem. The ultimate goal is divided into intermediate stages, each of which is necessary to solve the previous problem. Each of the nodes of the tree of goals is divided into several goals branches with elements estimated according to the degree of importance with a view to the achievement of the nearest objective (Figure 8). Despite the great importance of the methods of expert estimates, they are not without a number of drawbacks, the most typical of which are: – errors in the underlying data – for overcoming them it is necessary to comply with the completeness, reliability and other characteristics of the original data; – errors associated with the possibility of the double meaning of the issues, incorrect procedure of forming and filling tables of expert evaluations; – errors due to possible non-representativeness (representativeness) of the expert group; – errors due to the difficulty of accounting for anomalous assessments; – errors of experts associated with the weak development of the method, lack of skills, etc.; – random individual events such as discoveries, which are difficult to take into account;

3.2. Methods of forecasting



47

– errors which occur in the processing of information obtained from the experts.







Figure 8. Model of the “tree of goals” method

The main drawback of the method of expert assessments is the high proportion of subjectivism of the examination results. One of the oldest ways of knowing – the method of analogy – is widely distributed in geographical predicting. Forecast by analogy is represented by a conclusion reached on the properties of the object projected on the basis of its similarity to other objects both for structural and genetic characteristics, i.e. this space-time situation is compared with some previous historical situation. Using this method, predicted parameters, timing of onset and the importance of anticipated events are specified. The main stages of the method of analogies are search and selection of analog, model building and its research, the extrapolation of data from the analogue to the object under study, checking the extrapolation conclusions by analogy. The most important stage is the choice of analogue. In this case, these rules should be followed:

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CHAPTER 3. Methodological approaches, principles and methods of ecological and ...

– objects to compare and historical situation of their development should be shared on the basis of similarity; – compared characteristics and situations must be repeated as often as possible in time and space; – general properties must be not of the same type, but to characterize the object from different angles. Thus, the application of the method of analogy is also a comprehensive analysis of the projected object. To determine the similarity of the objects being compared different similarity criteria are used: the criteria of homogeneity, indicators of uniformity, similarity measures, and others. The projected object and object-analogue are often located at a considerable distance from each other, so for the reliability of forecasting by analogy it is necessary to pay great attention to the similarity of the structure and mode of their functioning, as well as the homogeneity of the natural and socio-economic factors in the formation of systems. Method of analogy is often used for the development of local forecasts of changes in the state of the environment in the sphere of action of the reservoirs. For example, the future mode and effect on the adjacent areas of reservoirs, designed in Western Siberia, are to a large extent determined by the reservoir-analogues, having been being for a long time operated under similar environmental conditions of European Russia. The effectiveness of using the method of analogy depends both on the degree of generality of the objects being compared, and on the comprehensiveness (non-uniformity) of its characteristics. For example, not only parameters of reservoirs should be compared, but also the character of the surrounding landscapes, direction and intensity of natural processes, natural components, from which the sizes of the impact of reservoirs on the natural environment are the most dependent: the composition of rocks, the angles of slopes, extent of forest-covered and waterlogged shores, etc. Genetic method based on the analysis of spatio-temporal evolutionary stages in the development of phenomena and processes that explain the observed facts and suggest not yet known ones, is also popular in forecasting. In physio-geographic forecasting, this method is interpreted as a method of landscape-genetic series. Knowing the sequence of spatial shifts of natural systems within genetic series, the order of change in the development process can be predicted. Using these and other methods of forecasting, the trends of future changes in the natural environment under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors of impact with probability of about 60– 65 %, can be identified. By their scales, such geographical forecasts can be global, regional and local. In our country, with its huge size, local and regional forecasts of the sphere of action of industrial complexes, cities, reservoirs, etc. to the national environment are yet the most relevant. Areas under the influence of such objects,

49

3.2. Methods of forecasting

are yet isolated from each other. However, in urban areas there is a tendency to their merger. Statistical methods of forecasting are aimed at identifying of stable over time characteristics of the object being predicted, search for the patterns of its development and research of the state to determine the main directions of the change of the object in time and space. The most developed of the formalized methods of forecasting is a method of extrapolation of development of trends. Method of extrapolations – is a classical and popular method of forecasting, based on finding probability value of the object being predicted according to known characteristics at a given time. To do this, the trends of development of the object of forecasting, i.e. trend of development of natural environment in the past and future, taking into account not only its stable development or preservation of absolute increases of predicted values, but also their possible acceleration or even the appearance of new factors, limiting or stimulating the development, are determined. Solution of the extrapolation task involves finding the probability value of the predicted indicator at a certain time according to known qualitative and quantitative values, taking into account the duration of the forecasting period. Forecast process is composed of regular f (ā,x) and random η (x) components: y (x) = f (ā,x) + η (x). The first value is presented by a component of the trend. The second one is considered to be uncorrelated random process and is necessary to adjust the characteristics of the forecast. The main attention is paid to the process of the best description of the trend, on the basis of which the prognostic extrapolations are built. The choice of the trend, most adequately describing the process being predicted, involves determining the appropriate form of functions. The following functions are the mostly often used: linear, parabolic, cubic parabolic, power, exponential, modified exponential, logistic (S-shaped), hyperbolic, quadratic logistic, vibrational and others. To construct prognostic functions, information about stable relationship, the pace and direction of the processes for a long time, properties of the processes at a certain time, about primary and restrictive conditions of development, are necessary. It is also important to correctly identify the lag of extrapolation (range of extrapolation). Depth of the predicted extrapolation should not exceed half of the period taken as the base, i.e., for example, for a 10-year forecast, time series lasting 25–30 years, is necessary. Reliability of the forecast is determined by the probability of occurrence of the predicted event. The other formalized methods of geographic forecast are correlation, regression, factor analysis, method of enveloping curves, etc.

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CHAPTER 3. Methodological approaches, principles and methods of ecological and ...

Correlation analysis is the definition of the relationship between two magnitudes, which is expressed in the fact that with a change in one magnitude in a certain direction, the other also changes. Regression analysis is to identify the functional dependence of the average value of one magnitude from one or more variables. Factor analysis allows to “compress” a large number of initial values in a smaller number of generalized characteristics (factors) with the loss of a small amount of initial information. Method of enveloping curves is based on the identification of trends of the changes in the parameters of the projected object under different conditions, which determine the limits of growth. Main trends of development are plotted, and then an envelope curve is lined through the inflection points, which is a generalized trend of the change of the object over time. This method is particularly effective to obtain short-term forecasts of changes in technical and economic parameters of technological processes and changes in the level of environmental pollution from different power sources. Modeling as a method of forecasting. Currently, modeling, in particular, mathematical, is wider and wider used in the development of economic and geographic forecasts. It is necessary to create adequate predictive models of the studied objects, phenomena and processes. Modeling allows to reveal causation of the parameters of the system and give their functional, point and interval estimates. Application of modeling for forecasting is an extremely complicated process. It is based on a large amount of information and requires the adaptation of existing mathematical apparatus for specific purposes of forecasting and the involvement of experts in different fields (mathematicians, programmer specialists, geographers, economists, sociologists, and others.). Among the existing models the following ones are used for forecasting: – functional, describing the functions that are performed by indi­ vidual components of the system and the system as a whole; – models of the physical process, determining mathematical relationships between the variables of this process; they can be continuous and discrete in time, deterministic and stochastic; – economic, determining the relationship between the different parameters of the studied process and phenomena, as well as the criteria allowing to optimize the economic processes; – procedural, describing the operating characteristics of the systems needed to make managerial decisions. Forecasting models can be conceptual (expressed by verbal description or flow-charts), graphical (represented in the form of curves, drawings, maps), matrix (as a link between verbal and formalized representation), mathematical (presented in the form of formulas and mathematical operations), computer (expressed as description suitable for input into the computer). A special place is occupied by simulation prognostic models. Simulation modeling is represented by a formalization of empirical knowledge

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about the object under consideration with the use of modern computers. A model that reproduces the operation of systems in space and at a fixed time by displaying elementary phenomena and processes with preserving their logical structure and sequence is meant as simulation model. This allows to obtain information on the relationships between their major components and to identify the mechanisms of the formation of their sustainable development, using the original data on the structure and main properties of territorial systems. All simulation models are created according to the type of “black box”, where there are some entrances into it, described by exogenous variables (which occur outside the system, under the influence of external causes), and output (described by output variables), which characterizes the result of the operation of the system. Simulation experiments consist of multiple calculations according the given model when changing the input parameters and suggest a targeted search for optimal solutions. Changing the values of the input and control parameters is given in the form of development scenarios of the modeled object to evaluate its functioning in accordance with these scenarios in the course of computer experiments with the model. With a large number of the used in the model parameters and the possibility of their change within a wide range, there is an unlimited number of scenarios and their variants. The process of developing of economic and geographic forecasts based on mathematical modeling includes steps such as: – formulation of goals and objectives of the research, a qualitative analysis of the projected object in accordance with the purpose of the research; – determination of the subject and level of modeling, depending on the tasks of forecasting; – selection of the main features and parameters of the model; the model should include only significant for a specific purpose parameters, since the growth of the number of variables increases the uncertainty of the results and complicates the model calculations; – formalization of the basic parameters of the model, i.e. mathe­ matical formulation of the goals and objectives of the research; – formalized representation of the relationships between the para meters and characteristics of the projected object or process; – model verification, i.e. accuracy of the reflection by the mathe matical model of the features of the original; – definition of informative possibilities of the model by establishing quantitative relationships of patterns and synthesizing.

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3.3. Methodological and methodical trends of development of geographic information technologies in assessing and forecasting Rapid globalization of information resources and technologies did not evade geographical science. As once in XVII–XVIII centuries, mathematics, astronomy, physics and chemistry provided geo-graphers with barometers and thermometers, measuring instru-ments, mathematical methods for the determination of geographic coordinates, accurate chronometers and ships capable of swimming in oceans, on the threshold of the XXI century, mathematics, astronomy, physics and chemistry through computer science, higher geodesy, electronics, applied cosmonautics armed geographers with new technical and methodical means of rapid receipt, storage, processing, analysis and transmission of huge volume of territorially distributed information. It is on this basis, a new branch of geography – geoinformatics, the science that combines the theory, methods, and traditions of classical cartography and geography with the possibilities and the apparatus of applied mathematics, computer science and computer engineering – is rapidly developing. This creates new opportunities for geography to adequately and, most importantly, efficiently monitor the dynamics and trends of the development of global processes. On the basis of information technology in the 60-ies of XX century, a trend called geographic information systems (GIS) emerged in the bowels of the Pentagon. It joined a solution of necessary applied tasks with the capabilities of human, computer and software, processing spatial information and transmitting it to the user on the display of the screen, to printing device or communication channels. Thus in the beginning, digital cartography and automated mapping, supplemented over time by other numerous functions and capabilities and which are the foundation of any GIS, were born. Since 70-s, GIS became a commercial product, which began to be used not only in the military, but also in other fields of knowledge. In the 80-s and 90-s, after the appearance and mass use of personal computers, GIS is gradually taking all the new world markets and appears in the USSR. Today, at the beginning of the XXI century, GIS occurs around the world, including in Kazakhstan, on a very broad front in different directions. Sales volumes of GIS products and GIS technology, as well as GIS services provided are increasing annually by 20-30%, and reach up to several billion US dollars per year.  It is important to note that the current GIS technologies are combined with another powerful system for receiving and presenting geographic information - remote sensing data (RSD) from space, airplanes and any other aircrafts. Space-based information is becoming more diverse and accurate, the possibility of receiving and updating

3.3. Methodological and methodical trends of development of geographic ...

53

it becomes more easy and accessible. Dozens of orbital systems transmit high-precision satellite images of any area of our planet. Archives and databases of digital images of very high resolution over a vast area of the globe are formed abroad. Kazakhstan also starts to form the basis of satellite images with the launch of its satellite. Their relative availability to the consumer (on-line search, order and getting on the Internet system), conducting surveys of any territory at the request of the consumer, the possibility of postprocessing and analysis of satellite images using various software tools, integration with GIS packages and GIS systems turn a tandem of GIS–RS to a new powerful tool of geographic analysis. This is the first and most real trend of the modern development of GIS. The second trend of development of GIS is a joint and widespread use of high-precision data of global positioning of an object in the water or on land, obtained with the use of GPS systems (USA) or GLONASS (Russia). These systems, especially GPS, are already widely used in marine navigation, aeronautics, geodesy, military and other industries. As for their application in combination with GIS and RS it forms a powerful triad of high-precision, topical (up to the real-time mode), constantly updated, objective and densely rich territorial information, which can be used almost anywhere. Examples of the successful joint use of these systems by NATO forces during combat operations in the military conflicts in Iraq and Yugoslavia are the proof of the fact that the time of the wide spread use of this trend in other areas of practical activity is not far off. The third trend of GIS development is associated with the development of the telecommunication system, primarily international Internet system, and the massive use of global international information resources. Several promising ways can be seen in this direction. The first way will be determined by the development of corporate networks of the largest enterprises and management structures, having remote access, with the use of technology of Intranet. This way is supported by serious financial resources of these structures and those problems and challenges that must be addressed with the use of spatial analysis. This way is likely to determine the development of technological problems of GIS in the work in corporate networks. Spreading the proven technologies in solving issues of small and medium-sized enterprises and firms will give a powerful impetus to their mass use. The second way depends on the development of the Internet itself, which is spreading around the world at a great rate, day by day involving tens of thousands of new users in its audience. This way takes on a new and have not yet known path, on which the traditional GIS from usually closed and expensive systems that exist for specific groups and solving of specific tasks, eventually will acquire new qualities, join together and turn into powerful integrated and interactive systems of joint global use.

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CHAPTER 3. Methodological approaches, principles and methods of ecological and ...

Also such GIS themselves will become geographically dispersed, modularly extensible, shared, constantly and easily accessible. Therefore, the emergence of geographic information systems of new types, classes, and even generations based on the capabilities of the Internet, television and telecommunications on the basis of current GIS can be assumed.  All characterized trends, prospects, directions and ways of development will lead eventually to the fact that geography and geoinformatics in the XXI century will be a single complex of sciences, based on the spatial ideology and using the most modern technologies for processing huge amount of any spatial information. Mentioned GIS technologies are widely used not only in the assessment of environmental situations, but also in the development of forecasting models associated with the transformation of the environment under the influence of the economic activity. Issues for discussion

1. Classification of forecasting methods on the general and specific, which ones did you use? 2. The essence of the method of inter-system analysis, give an example. 3. In what cases the method of expert estimates and methods of its carrying out is used? 4. Terms of selection of analogs and similarity of criteria in using the method of analogies. 5. What methods are statistical methods? 6. What is the method of simulation modeling, when it is used? 7. Characterize the possibilities of using GIS technologies for environmental analysis and forecasting.

CHAPTER 4. Ecological and geographical forecasting system

Chapter

55

4

Ecological and geographical forecasting system

Geographical forecasting system consists of three major interrelated subsystems: economic-geographic, physical-geographic and subsystems synthesis. Economic and physiographic subsystem are generalized in subsystem synthesis. Direct and indirect communication can be between these subsystems. Two following phases of research are distinguished in the system of geographical forecasting: 1. The analysis of modern interaction of human (society) and the natural environment, the state of the natural environment of the region, changed by human activities, economic efficiency and rationality of the economic use of the environment at dif-­ ferent territorial levels, are assessed. 2. Interrelated and mutually adjusted specific forecasts, which are linked into a single forecast of change in the environment of the region under the influence of human on the “set time” slice are compiled. Before forecasting, it is necessary to understand the basic laws of modern interaction of human and the envir-­ onment. At the pre-forecasting level the operating units are searched, the dynamics of their development, the combination in space, the process of mutual influence, etc. are clarified, i.e complete general geographic characteristics of the region, including human resources, economic potential, etc., are prepared. Physical-geographic subsystem of analysis. Physical-geographical analysis includes: а) determining the physical and geographic location of the region;

56



BASICS OF THE ECOLOGICAL AND GEOGRAPHIC FORECASTING

б) landscape regionalization; в) component study of natural and territorial systems (NTS), changed by human activity and its unchanged natural analogues; г) the types of changes in natural systems (natural-anthropogenic) and their stability; д) determination of the natural tendencies of the development of the natural environment of the region; е) regionalization according to the types of changes in natural systems. Here, an important role is given to physical-geograp hical regionalization. It is not only the most complete form of knowledge about nature. Regionalization is needed to prepare a number of new maps, for example, a map of human impact on the environment, but the physical-geographical regionalization by itself does not provide a sufficient basis for assessing the state of the environment in its interaction with industry. Conversion of natural systems begins with a change of the individual components, further transformation goes through intralandscape relations. The mechanism of formation of geotechnical systems depends on the specific natural conditions and is subordinated to zonal features of the territory. It is possible to move through some indicators to a generalization of anthropogenic influence, and then to the regionalization of the territory according to this feature. In general, physical and geographical analysis allows to obtain general and specialized physical-geographical regionalization and determine the stability of landscapes to various types of anthropogenic influences. Economic and geographic subsystem of analysis. It includes: а) determination of the economic and geographical location; б) economic and geographical regionalization; в) drawing up the inventory of production and ecological passports of enterprises and settlements; г) technological chains and characteristics of active elements; д) types of economic development; е) regionalization by types of economic development, etc. Let us consider these points in details. Analysis of the development of the territory. Development of the territory is the process and the result of social action, industrial and nonindustrial. Type of industrial land development is characterized primarily by a certain combination of engineering structures (mining areas, areas of mechanical engineering, oil refining). Similarly, non-industrial processes (tourism, public services, health care, upbringing, education, etc.) are studied. Separation of industrial and non-industrial processes is indicative only, as they are combined in space (cars of a factory and cars of consumer services, health care institutions and others equally pollute the atmosphere). This allows to define the integral (total) spatial structure of land development. Microtype of the development of the territory is the form of primary territorial concentration of population and

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industries. It is the primary “communication center” of natural and industrial processes. Identification of types of development as elementary specialized territorial units is a prerequisite for a science-based regionalization of the territory by the types of economic development. It is a shift of economic regionalization by the types of economic development to the natural components of the scheme of geographic forecasting. Inventory and typing of all major forms of human interaction with nature. Particular attention is paid to the development of an inventory of industrial enterprises with the characteristics of the main parameters (power, availability of treatment facilities, sources of raw materials, etc.). Technical and economic characteristics is supplemented by geographical one, including general landscape characteristics of the zone of influence of the enterpirse. This is the basis for the ecological passport. It should set the maximum allowable load on the landscape within the sphere of operation of the enterprise, the village and the city. Technological chain is a set of all production processes, starting from receipt of raw materials and ending in the transportation and warehousing of finished products and industrial wastes. In the technological chain, the actively in contact with the natural environment elements are distinguished. Knowing the active elements of technological chains and trends to improve them, we can anticipate what will happen to the environment at the places where the construction of new enterprises is planned. In this case, the analysis of the geographical conditions is required for the simple reason that the same type of production in different geographical conditions may produce different effects and consequences. Subsystem of the synthesis. Synthesis of forecasts is the realization of the goal of forecasting by combining specific forecasts on the basis of the principles of forecasting. Task of subsystem is to bring the information of both subsystems together. The assessment of the current state of the natural environment of the region, rationality and economic efficiency of its use take the central place. In addition, the system of environmental control, environmental practice, etc. are taken into account. The first phase of work begins with the development-methodology forecasting of the state of the environment and the productive forces in the region. Methodical and methodological basis of the geographic forecast is developed. Method of expert evaluations is considered to be the most appropriate from the possible methods of geo-ecoforecasting at this stage. At the second stage (actually forecasted level), the entire amount of data accumulated as a result of analysis of the current interaction between man and nature, as well as data of the experimental and methodological forecast, are used. Forecast at this stage consists of a system of inter-connected and inter-corrected specific fore­casts.

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Issues for discussion

1. Indicate the main subsystems of geographic forecasting and give a description to them. 2. What issues need to be considered for the analysis of physical-geographical system? 3. What are the main areas needed to analyze the economic and geographic system? 4. How do you understand “subsystem of synthesis”?

4.1. Landscape and geographical forecasting Relevance of landscape-geographical forecasting (LGF) is defined by the fact that the landscape is a complexly organized natural system, which is the living environment of human and is exposed to different influences from it – direct and indirect. Objects of LGF are natural geographical systems (geosystems) at all levels. The essence of the LGF is to develop ideas about the natural geographical systems of the future, i.e. of possible changes in their condition, caused both by natural factors and human activities. According to the A.G. Isachenko’s statement, practical goals of LGF may relate to the future not of the entire structure of a geosystem, but its individual units and functions (eg., the hydrologic cycle or biological productivity, etc.), and it would be “departmental” forecasting, but not complex, as evolution of the landscape as a whole is not forecasted. Directions of LGF are determined by the dual character of the causes which call forth changes in geosystems: – natural character, i.e. the effect of external factors (tectonic movements, changes in solar activity, etc.) or internal processes in the ecosystems (overgrowing of lakes with plants, etc.). – technological impact in its various forms (hydraulic engineering, the use of fertilizers, mining developments, etc.). Thus, the starting points for the LGF must be the following: – natural dynamic and evolutionary tendencies inherent in geosystems; – current and future plans for socio-economic development and scientific-technological process, defining the possibilities and directions of human impact on the environment. In this case, the primary prerequisite for the LGF must be knowledge of the natural background, i.e. those natural trends in the development of nature, on which technological impact is applied as a second layer. So, without the prior forecast of the behavior of geosystems by virtue of objective natural laws of their development, according to scientists, there can be no forecasting of the effects of technogenic impact. Estimated period of LGF is recommended to be linked to cycles (rhythms) of nature: a) super short-term – 1 year (seasonality);

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b) short-term – 11 years (solar activity cycle); c) medium-term – 35 years (Brickner cycles); d) super long-term – 1800 years (Shnitnikov periods). Forecast for several decades is the most relevant. Shorter (1-3 years) forecast is usually given in the form of meteorological or phenological one. Super long-term forecasts can be made only on account of the most common trends in the development of geosystems, which are determined by tectonic and other planetary processes. And the ways of social development and scientific-technological progress for such a long-term (thousands of years) period are almost unpredictable. Territorial scales. In accordance with the basic levels of the organization of geosystems the following forecasts are distinguished: a) global, for example forecast of climate change (global war­ ming); b) regional, which relate to the future of landscape countries, zones, provinces, individual landscapes, for example, the forecast due to the diversion of the part of runoff of Siberian rivers to Central Asia; c) local, the object of which are morphological units of landscapes, exposed to relatively rapid transformations under the influence of natural (water logging, erosion) and technogenic (irrigation, creation of reservoirs, etc) processes. There is a definite connection between the advance time of forecasting, its territorial scales and initial prerequisites. Global geographic forecast cannot be calculated for short periods as the restructuring of global geosystem requires a long interval of time, during which geological rhythms may occur or the cumulative effect of local technogenic impacts affect. Optimal period for the regional LGF is determined by a segment of future, during which the trends of spontaneous development of geosystems, the impact of secular and interdecadal climatic rhythms, as well as the planned technogenic influence, which, in turn, is defined by the real plans of economic development, may appear. Lead time is the upcoming 10th anniversary. Local forecast is based on factors with a limited range of action. There is a certain connection and continuity between forecasting at different territorial levels. Tight contingency of local geosystems (tracts, facies) obliges to consider their changes in the background of the dynamics and the evolution of the landscape as a whole, and the forecast for any landscape should be developed on a broader regional background. Ultimately, regional LGF should not be carried out without consideration of global trends, but the transformation of local geosystems contributes both into the dynamics and development of geosystems of higher levels, down to the individual tracts and facies. Method of landscape-geographical forecasting is based on the use of many scientific methods of forecasting, which, however, get the specifics with regard to the purposes of the LGF.

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Method of extrapolation is a retrospective study of the processes and distribution (prolongation) trends for the future. It should be used with caution, as most processes develop unevenly. Method of extrapolation, which can be used in the forecasting of processes having the cyclical nature (for example, solar activity cycle). Method of geographical analogies is to transfer regularities, found in some landscapes, to the other, similar to them. Method – one of the most common, is often used in the development of local forecasts. For example, according to the impact of existing reservoirs on the near area, a forecast of the projected impacts of reservoirs can be made, but the method can be applied only within a group of genetically similar landscapes. Method of geographical analogies can be used in the development of regional forecasts in those cases when it is necessary to foresee the consequences of major projects. Here you can compare the scale of technogenic impact with the fluctuations in natural processes. Cartographic method is one of the most specific and universal ones for any geographical research. It is the main way of expressing the results of forecasting. Forecasting functions of landscapes begins with determining factors of the expected changes in the geosystems in relation to the specific objectives of the forecast. These factors must be given and are taken as independent variables (eg., the creation of water reservoirs with certain parameters, reclamation systems, diversion of rivers), then the adopted factors are input into the geosystem. It is necessary to find out how and on what the direct effect on the inputs to the system will primarily affect, i.e. on which components the impact will be. This is a direct or primary effect at the inputs to the system. For example, the first effect in the creation of the reservoir will be the change of the hydrological unit of the geosystem. This change will affect the properties of the atmospheric boundary layer. Consequently, atmospheric and water units in this case will be the inputs to the system, so the initial stage of forecasting is to develop a specific hydroclimatic forecast. Changes at the inputs will give impetus to the restructuring of other units. These are the indirect changes that will occur in the second and third place. They can be considered as changes in the outputs of the system. An example of the reservoir: these are geomorphological processes (coastal erosion, landslides), the transformation of soils (boggy soils are formed in the zone of flooding), the restructuring of biocenosis. Forecasting of these side effects is the basic and the most difficult part of the study. Forecast map is the most important form of a forcasting model of geosystems. Already at the first stage of forecasting, the researcher must have a spatial model of geosystems – a landscape map that shows the genetic classification of geosystems and their taxonomic relations and regionalization. According to them you can identify landscapes-analogs in which similar patterns act and the same

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effect can be expected as a result of this or that man-made factors. Landscape regionalization on a map allows to link the local and regional forecasts, and ultimately give a new regionalization and a new typology of geosystems, i.e. create a forecasting map. Models of geosystems are grouped on the map according to the expected natural and technogenic transformations with the specified lead time. Landscape-geographical forecast is probabilistic. Its reliability depends on many factors: the number and quality of initial information about the geosystems, the development of theories and methods of forecasting. Issues for discussion

1. Indicate the main goals, objectives and the object of landscape-geographic forecasting. 2. What methods of forecasting are typical for the landscape-geographic forecasting? 3. The role of the landscape map, the purpose of its creation and functions fulfilled. 4. What are the temporary terms used in landscape-geographical forecasting?

4.2. Economic and geographical forecasting Prominent geographers – Yu.G. Saushkin, B.Ya. Dvoskin, Sh.M. Nadyrov and others were engaged in the issues of economic and geographical forecasting. Depending on the object of forecasting, three main types of geographic forecasting are formed: economic-geographical, physi­ cal-geographical and ecological (geo-environmental). As part of the geographical forecasts, the economic-geographical forecast – as a science-based judgment about the possible states of socio-economic systems in the future – occupies an important place. Economic and geographical forecasting is at the junction of the geographical, ecological, economic and socio-demographic forecasting. Theoretical and methodological basis of geographical forecasting is a systematic approach, as its object is territorial systems of different hierarchical levels – natural systems, economic regions, territorial-production complexes, industrial sites, etc. The aim of geographical forecasting is to provide individuals and corporate decision-makers in the field of management of the economy with the original materials, the development of evidencebased recommendations for creating optimal conditions for the implementation of target complex programs of socio-economic development of the regions and the development of the scientific principles of nature management. In the opinion of A.M. Trofimov and M.D. Sharygin, the main objectives of economic and geographical forecasting are the scientific analysis of territorial socio-economic processes and phenomena; study of existing and prospective relationships between nature and society; assessment of the possibilities of perspective development of socio-

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economic territorial systems; information support for projects of social and economic development of the territory; identification of spatio-temporal patterns of functioning and development of geosystems. An important problem of forecasting is the improving of accuracy and objectivity of the socio-economic forecast in order to take appropriate decisions in the field of management of socioeconomic development of the country and regions. On the content, specific and comprehensive economic-geographical forecasts are distinguished. Specific forecasts are needed for solving the following tasks: – justification of the involving in economic circulation of natural resources; – forecasting of the development of cross-industry complexes and territorial socio-economic systems of different hierarchical rank; – improvement of the system of population distribution; – definition of internal and external economic relations; – elaboration of plans of social development of cities and regions; – justification of recreational activities, etc. The totality of all specific economic-geographical forecasts is a com­ prehensive forecast. Development of economic and geographical forecasts is a sequence of multiple logically interrelated stages, including: 1. Statement of the purpose and objectives of the study. 2. Determination of chronological and territorial frameworks of the study. 3. Collecting and systematizing all the information on the opera-­ tion and development of territorial socio-economic systems and their functional subsystems. 4. Construction of a tree of purposes, the choice of methods of forecasting, detection of limits and inertial aspects of the devel opment of the projected object or process. 5. The development of specific economic-geographical forecasts: natural resources, territorial organization of the productive for-­ ces, inter-industry complexes, population and settlement system, etc. 6. Synthesis of specific geographic forecasts. 7. Development of the basic variants of the forecast. 8. Preparation of a preliminary forecast. 9. Expert examination and preparation of the final forecast. 10. Adjustment of the forecast. 11. Using the forecasting results for solving theoretical and practi­ cal problems. The system of economic-geographical forecasts include the totality of specific forecasts aimed at the study of some aspects of the territorial organization of society and the prospects for the development of individual branches of material production and non-production sphere. Economic and geographical forecast has a systemic nature, as its object is the complex territorial systems, which consist of a

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set of functional subsystems and structural formations. They have a certain margin of functioning and development that should be considered when developing the forecast. Specific economic and geographic forecasts are most common in modern geographical, economic and social studies, as along with purely scientific impor­ tance, they play an important practical role in anticipation of the many aspects of the territorial organization of the economy and population. They contribute to a more in-depth study of the current state of social and economic objects and processes and the justification of their long-term development. Important place in the system of specific economic and geographical forecasts is occupied by forecasts of the use of natural resources. They are aimed at identifying the main trends in the development and use of natural resources potential of territorial socio-economic systems of different hierarchical levels. It is necessary to consider the possibility of attracting new types of natural resources as a result of geological discoveries, improvement of technical and technological bases of mining and processing of mineral resources, the integrated use of raw materials and fuel. The initial stage of the forecasting of the use of natural resources is their economic evaluation. Content of economic evaluation of natural resources is the logical territorial differences in the natural properties of these resources and their sources, as well as their impact on the productivity of social labor, as well as differences in the amounts of the resources. Evaluation criteria lies in the relative cost-effectiveness of the use of this source of resources or their territorial combinations. The main indicators of economic evaluation are the economic performance of primary products resulting from the use of estimated resources. In the next step, the dynamics of the use of different types of natural resources is analyzed, current and future conditions of the exploitation of natural resources are determined and the needs of individual sectors of the economy in specific resources: territory, fuels, raw materials, water and others – are identified. For this, a balance method is the most often used that allows to compare availability of resources and their consumption. The forecasts of economic development of the territory are related to forecasts of the use of natural resources. Their importance is due to a marked decrease in reserves, deterioration of the quality of natural resources in the old industrial areas and the fact that many of them are non-renewable. Therefore forecasts of economic development of new territories, including remote areas, are necessary to provide current and future needs of the country in different types of resources. These forecasts are based on the qualitative and quantitative assessment of natural resource potential of the territory and provide for stages, types, tracks and bases of development, as well as options for further socio-economic development of the opened-up territory.

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Recreational forecasts are aimed at justifying the location and devel­ opment of regions, recreation and tourism centers. Complexity of the recreational forecasting is the need for an integrated accounting of multi-component structure of recreational objects, which includes the natural, economic and social elements. When forecasting the development of these objects, it is necessary to take into account the dynamics of anthropogenic changes in the environment, recreational “capacity” of the territory, the accessibility of the objects and the degree of satisfaction with the recreation. Environmental forecasts are based on the results of forecasts of devel­ opment and placement of individual sectors of the economy, lation distribution, development of natural systems. They popu­ are based on an assessment of the dynamics of pollution of land, water resources, atmosphere by industrial waste, accounting the elasticity and capacity of landscapes, their stability and their ability to natural cleansing and self-healing. A system of positive and negative impacts on the environment at a specific time finds expression in these forecasts. The result of the forecasts of environmental protection is a study of ways to reduce pollution by the optimizing of the placement of industrial enterprises, the introduction of low-waste technologies and treatment facilities. Scientific and technical forecasts play an important role to support the socio-economic development of the country. The enhancement of the efficiency of social production, the rationality of the territorial organization of the economy, optimal use of natural resources and environmental protection depend on the acceleration of scientific and technological progress (STP). There are three trends of STP forecasts: 1. Forecasts of development of science as the most important field of activity, main fundamental and applied research, the most progressive for the future. 2. Forecasts for developing and introduction of the achievements of STP in sectors of the economy. 3. Forecasting the social consequences of STP in various areas of public life. Forecasts of the territorial organization of the productive forces of economic areas are widespread in modern economic and geo­ graphical studies. Traditionally, consideration of economic regions of various hierarchical rank ends in justifying the development prospects of the studied objects and processes. The main purpose of this type of forecasts is the justifying of the optimal territorial organization of the regional economy in which the maximum production efficiency would be achieved. The development of such economic and geographical forecast begins with the analysis of natural and industrial potential of the region, identifying the imbalances in the distribution of individual enterprises. To justify the development prospects of the economy of the region, it is necessary to examine its state and dynamics (growth, structural

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changes and shifts, reproductive processes, the volume and structure of investments, etc.). This provides for an opportunity to improve production efficiency through the introduction of new techniques and technologies, other achievements of scientific and technical progress, the processes of concentration, cooperation, combining, the intensification of production. The subject of the forecast is to improve the territorial proportions based on consideration of the extent of the growth of enterprises, industrial sites, centers and TPC, which are based on prioritizing the development of new mineral deposits, territorial shifts in the distribution of productive forces and the relation to other kinds of forecasts (natural resources, population, investment, etc.). One of the types of specific economic and geographical forecasting is the forecasting of the development of cross-industry systems and individual sectors of the economy. This kind of forecasting is aimed at prospective study of proportions and the interrelationships between the internal stages of the consecutive processing of raw materials and fuel in the finished product, between the main, auxiliary and service industries. The result of the forecast is to determine the best options for the development of industries of the region based on the integrated use of raw materials, the degree of utilization of industrial waste, the economic efficiency of production through interconnected and interdependent distribution of enterprises. Forecasting the distribution of individual sectors of the economy is carried out in the following sequences: 1) the choice of the optimality criterion or objective function; 2) the definition of a system of necessary for forecasting indicators; 3) formulation of the conditions and restrictions in accordance with the needs and available resources. The indicator of a minimum cost or maximum effect is the most com­monly used as the optimality criterion. Development of the options for the development of industries and individual enterprises includes many aspects: changing production capacity, specialization, organization of labor and production; change of technological processes; combination and cooperation; position with respect to raw material sources, fuel and energy; the ways of the use of natural, material and human resources; reconstruction, etc. Forecasts of the population size and the dynamics of the labor force are based on demographic parameters describing the age and gender, social, occupational structure of the population, the natural and the mechanical movement of the population. Forecasting of the workforce is based on an analysis of their reproduction and movement, occupancy of the population, skills and training levels, distribution by sectors of the economy, the direction and intensity of migration flows. Using the balance method, the pre­ sence and needs of the labor force in the country, as well as in certain regions, are compared.

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Forecasting of the settlement systems is aimed at optimizing of their territorial organization. This takes into account the possibility of purposefully regulate this process in accordance with the set task. Optimal settlement should promote the harmonious combination of settlements of different sizes and functional types, reduce dif­ ferences between large and small cities. An important aspect of forecasting is to reveal the relationship between the population and settlement systems with the other components of territorial systems: natural, industrial, infrastructure, environmental, recrea­ tio­nal, etc. This will allow to achieve a certain efficiency of econo­ mic development. Social forecasts of the development of areas are related to the study of the social environment of people’s lives. They are aimed at improving the proportions between the regional public consumption and pro­duction, the definition of scientifically based needs of the population, identify trends of the change in the level and living conditions of the territorial communities of people. These forecasts are based on the available material, social and cultural potential and points the way to increase its use. They are based on the identification of trends and predicting changes in the social structure, conditions and quality of people’s life and should be linked to other types of specific forecasts: demographic, economic, investment, natural resource, recreational, etc. Forecasts of the development of the service sector and social infrastructure are mainly based on standard methods of forecasting. They take into account the growth rates of various types of services, the accumulated social and infrastructure capacity, modern provision of the population with the products of cultural and community purpose, variants of functioning and development of trade, public transport, housing and communal services, enterprises of public education, science, culture, etc. The results of specific economic and geographic forecasts have indepen­ dent value for improving the territorial organization of society in the practice of territorial management and planning. In addition, they are an important basis for the development of comprehensive (integrated) economic and geographical forecast, which is not just the sum of specific forecasts, but their integration (synthesis) when obtaining a qualitatively new forecast. The process of integration of specific forecasts is carried out by matching their sizes, lookahead periods and the results for elaboration of strategic directions of development of territorial systems of population and economy of different hierarchical levels. In this case, they proceed from the assumption that forecasts only of one scale and interoperability, the objects of which have a common origin, can be synthesized. Comprehensive forecast is aimed at studying and foresight of the development of territorial socio-economic systems as integral, functionally and structurally interconnected entities. Comprehensive forecasts are the informational basis for the development of inte­

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grated targeted programs for regional development, economic regions and territorial and production systems, which contain data on the volume of capital investments, on the needs of financial and human resources. In modern conditions, the integrated territorial development programs include a clear rationale for construction of facilities of the branches of market specialization, creating transport and communication systems, heat and energy systems, development of a resettlement system, as well as measures to pro­ tect and manage the environment. The results of long-term social and economic forecasting are reflected in the drafting of the target complex programs of development of regions, economic districts and TPS. Thus, economic and geographical forecasting is an important aspect of social and economic geography. It has a great philosophical, theoretical-methodological and practical importance, since it allows to identify regularities and peculiarities of the territorial organization of society and its component parts – the territorial socio-economic systems. Issues for discussion

1. What are the component parts of economic and geographical forecasting? 2. What are the objectives and tasks performed by economic and geographical forecasting? 3. The role of forecasting in solving practical and theoretical problems. 4. What kinds of economic and geographical forecasting can you list?

4.3. Socio-ecological forecasting One of the important practical problems of forecasting is to implement the most valuable results of forecasting. The main trends of this activity can be as follows: a) to equip the relevant agencies, departments with materials to produce programs and projects; b) to draw up comprehensive forecasts through coordination centers; c) to provide the government, committees and control bodies of the relevant agencies with forecasts; d) to carry out competitions of forecasts by relevant commissions and committees. In the analysis of the level of forecasting activities, many factors should be taken into account. There are the factors of fundamental, methodological character. This is primarily the ability to take into account the specifics of the relationships of socio-economic and spiritual-ideological aspects in the development of forecasts. Negative effects may occur also due to attempts to shift the existing models for the future without a proper analysis of the possible adaptation to the new conditions. The attempts to transfer the model of the western economy and democracy to Kazakhstan can

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serve as an example. They acquire a perverted form, since not only the characteristics of the economic sphere, but also the historical traditions, social specificity, spiritual and moral atmosphere are not taken into account. Efficiency and reliability of forecasts depend on many factors, including the observance of fundamental principles, approach and the process of research itself. The most important of them include: – selection of the main factors and elements of the system, the definition of their role and importance in the social sphere; – identification of the main trends (“trajectories”) of the devel-­ opment of the studied processes (unemployment, social security, the situation with the students, etc.) based on the analysis; – extrapolation of these trends for the future; – synthesis of the future trajectories in these social processes; – integration with the forecasts in other areas of public activity; – compilation of a comprehensive multi-level forecast both as a whole and for individual processes and trends; – continuous adjustment of the forecast. The main conditions of reliability of forecasts include: a) depth and objectiveness of the analysis; b) knowledge of specific conditions; c) efficiency and speed in conducting and processing of the materials. The information, database of the statistical material are of particular importance in the forecasting. In the theoretical and methodological point of view it is necessary to take into account a number of important provisions: a) perception of social processes as an objective reality; b) a holistic system approach to the research; c) historical determinism, i.e. recognition of the cause-and-effect conditionality of these processes. The main approaches to social forecasting. Social forecasting is a special research on the likely prospects for the development of a social object. Moreover, the object may be a social phenomenon, process, and social class and social status of the individual. The aim of social forecasting is to prepare science-based suggestions about the directions in which it is desirable to develop a social object. If we are dealing with certain social phenomenon, the purpose of scientific forecast will be not just a prevision of its state in the future, but also the development of measures, allowing to influence on this phenomenon in the right direction. Consequently, in the course of scientific forecasting two main problems are solved: – the purpose of the probable development of the object is determined and motivated; – means and methods to achieve this goal are established. It should be noted that social phenomena and processes, being the subject of forecasting, in real life are so complex and contradictory that it is impossible to fully anticipate how they will develop. Therefore,

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forecasting descriptions are always relative and can only be in one way or another approximate to the reality. Classification of social forecasting is also possible depending on the areas of the projected influence. In this case, it is rightly to identify its such types, as socio-economic, legal, socio-political, socio-cultural, sociological, etc. Taking into account the fact that the objects of sociological forecasting are both society as a social organism, and social groups, institutions, and the man himself, also socionomic aspect of forecasting can be distinguished in its framework. Though, probably, statement of a question of the allocation of forecasting of problems of social work into an independent type of social forecasting is justified. Among the functions of social forecasting, many researchers refer to three main ones: orienting, normative and warning. The first involves the optimization of the choice of socially significant goals and means of achieving them. Normative means identifying the most important trends of social development, dynamics of social needs and the probability of satisfying them. The warning one involves identification and description of the possible negative consequences in the trends of the likely development. Technology of social forecasting includes seven basic steps: 1. Pre-forecasting orientation, i.e. definition of the object, purpose, objectives, timing, methods and working hypotheses of the forecasting study. 2. Determination of the forecasting background formed from the data (new documents, etc.), influencing the development of the object. 3. Building a basic forecasting model, meaning a generalized vision of the object in the system of its key indicators, parameters and trends. 4. A search forecast, i.e. the projection of the base model in the future according to the observed trend, taking into account the forecast background and search for possible problems to be solved. 5. Normative forecast, i.e. projection of a base model in future in accordance with the anticipated standards and defining the means necessary to achieve the regulatory state. 6. Assessment of the degree of reliability and its clarification through the expert survey, including a reusable method. 7. Development of proposals, recommendations, allowing to opti-­ mize the process of development of the object of the forecasting research. The problem of determining the methods of social forecasting remains debatable. Some researchers refer expert methods, extrapolation methods and modeling to the main groups. A number of researchers divide all the diversity of methods of social forecasting into general-scientific, inter-scientific and specific-scientific. There are also other variants of solving the problem of the typology of social forecasting methods.

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It is quite justified to allocate a general scientific group of methods of forecasting, consisting of analysis, synthesis, extrapolation, inter­polation, induction, deduction, analogy, hypothesis, experi­ mentation, etc. Probably, it is possible to combine the methods of “brainstorming”, “Delphi” into a group of innovative, oriented to the collective opinion of most experts. The method of “brainstorming” is a collective expert’s review of the forecasted event. It suggests a joint discussion of the problem by specialists of different areas of research, scientific schools and is focused on the convergence of expert positions. “Delphi” method distinguishes anonymity of the expert’s work and written form of estimates. This approach to some extent reduces the adaptation of the participants of the work to the dominating opinion. On the other hand, this method does not eliminate in full the aspirations of the expert to follow the opinion of the most people, and hence reduces the level of scientific nature. Specific-scientific methods of social forecasting typically include expert surveys, testing, etc. The creating of forecasting systems is guided by the following principles of forecasting: – the principle of systemacy requiring interconnectivity and con-­ tingency of the object of forecasting and forecasting background and their elements, taking into account the feedback between them; – the principle of consistency of the search and regulatory forecasts; – the principle of variance, which requires the development of options for the forecast based on the features of a working hypothesis, goal setting and options of the forecast background; – the principle of continuity of forecasting, which requires cor-­ rection of forecasts as new data become available; – the principle of verifiability, which requires the definition of the validity, accuracy and the reasonableness of the forecasts; – the principle of profitability of forecasting, which requires higher economic or social benefits from the use of the forecast over the cost of its development. On the basis of objective criterion, forecasts are divided into three types: search, normative and comprehensive. Search forecast – is the definition of the possible states of the object of forecasting in the future. Such forecast answers to the question: what is likely to happen while maintaining the current trends? Normative forecast – is the identification of the ways and conditions for achieving possible states (taken as given) of the object of forecasting in the future. This forecast answers the question: in what ways to achieve the desired result? Comprehensive forecast contains the elements of the search and normative forecasts. Two parameters of forecasting are the most important: – look-ahead period – the interval of time from the present to the future, for which the forecast is being developed;

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– base period of the forecast – the interval of time, based on which the forecast is made. For the look-ahead period the following types of forecasts are distin­ guished: – operational forecast with look-ahead period to 1 month; – short-term forecast with a look-ahead period from 1 month to 1 year; – medium-term forecast with a look-ahead period from 1 year to 5 years; – long-term forecast with a look-ahead period from 5 years to 15 years; – long-range forecast with a look-ahead period over 15 years. The following types are distinguished for the scales of forecasting: – global forecasts; – government forecasts; – structural (inter-sectoral and inter-regional) forecasts; – forecasts of the development for the individual complexes of industry, economy and culture; – industrial forecasts; – regional forecasts; – forecasts of the activities of individual economic entities, industries, products; – individual forecasts for the activities of individuals and their communities. The following types are distinguished for the object of study: – natural science forecasts (meteorological, hydrological, geolo-­ gical, biological, cosmological); – scientific and technical forecasts that cover development pro-­ spects of scientific and technical progress; – social forecasts, which cover various areas of human activity and the relationships between them. In turn, social forecasts are divided into subtypes: health care; geographic; environmental; economic; sociological; psychological; demographic; ethnic; architectural and urban-planning; educational and pedagogical; cultural and aesthetic; legal, including criminological; domestic policy; foreign policy; military. Forecasting in social work enables to provide for the specifics of the development of a situation, phenomenon, state of the individual,

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team and family. Such foresight enables more effective influence on the process, to make timely adjustments. In practical socioeconomics, forecasting is used for prediction of the situation on the labor market for long-term implementation of personal development, to prevent crisis and conflict states of the social object, as well as in the areas of youth policy, social and ethnic relations, in the work with the disabled, elderly, homeless, orphans and other population groups. When predicting, the situation on the labor market, the information about vacancies, redundant workers is analyzed. Separately, the number of people laid off on their own and in connection with the release of retirees, citizens who have not previously worked, poorly protected social groups are taken into account. The information about the ratio between the number of vacant posts available, and the number of disabled citizens by sectors of the economy allow us to estimate the possible volumes of professional training and retraining of disabled citizens. Also the estimated demand for graduates of different specialties is investigated. Such forecasts allow to foresee a situation in the labor market, appropriately influence on it. Professional forecasting survey of the labor market is carried out in three main blocks: labor supply, demand and distribution. Developing the overall forecasting may be preceded by the preparation of specific forecasts. For example, labor resources, the extent of their release, hidden unemployment, underemployment, etc. are projected. Forecasting activity requires the presence of corresponding volumes of information and justified choice of forecasting methods. When forecasting of population employment, such methods as questionnaires in the form of an interview or survey, modeling, etc. are commonly used. Analysis of the forecasts of labor market prepared by the various services and institutions, suggests that a short-term type of forecasting is mainly used. Not only the possible number of employed and registered unemployed people, but also the level of hidden unemployment is forecasted. It should be noted that the forecasting of labor market is a continuous process that requires systematic refinements during the formation of new data. In some cases, forecasts of the population employment are adjusted by demographic forecasts. Currently, a tendency of growth of able-bodied population has a significant impact on the labor market. The capabilities of forecasting are used also in social pedagogy. It is applicable, for example, for personal development of a teenager who needs social support and care. Such forecasting is often called stimulating or educational. It is represented by a program of actions aimed, firstly, to identify the reserves of personal development in the field of the senses, intellect, will; secondly, to create conditions for their implementation, and, thirdly, at the selection of methods

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and techniques to encourage a self-developing fundamentals in the formation of personality. The forecasting of personal development gains particular relevance when a social employee solves problems of a troubled teen. One of the methods of such forecasting is a psycho-pedagogical concilium, the idea of which was carried out in different variants by a great pedagogue V.A. Sukhomlinskyy. Concilium is a meeting where also students’ parents and students themselves can participate along with social pedagogues or psychologists, teachers. It all depends on the specific tasks undertaken by the concilium. Method of forecasting personal development makes it possible to bring together the efforts of all members of the educational process, to draw a perspective and a program of actions for the implementation of the most important tasks of a teenager’s development. As a result, a system of the most effective methods of realization of an individual approach to the child is formed. As you know, conflicts, crises are the reflection of life activity of the society, so it is necessary to anticipate their development and seek to weaken the negative effects. Labor collective, the family, the sphere of social and ethnic relations, as well as the person with his problems, can act as a social object of forecasting. Statistics of recent years indicates about the continuing in our country negative trend of growth in the number of divorces. This reinforces the importance of the problem of the forecasting of family conflicts. As it is evident from the investigations, lack of understanding between the spouses and domestic turmoil play a destroying role in a family. Very often a lack of understanding is caused by a different view of spouses of their position in the family life, a different vision of an ideal of a well-to-do family. Growing up, being formed as a person in the families of their parents where respect for elders, consideration for family values and traditions, which are the cornerstones of the family, young married couples often try to transfer the adopted norms and behaviors in their new family life. But it is not always understood by them and leads to family conflicts. A forecast of an expert, which is made taking into account the actual situation, would allow to reveal other reasons for a pre-crisis family situation, as well as to develop proposals to resolve the conflict. For this, a social expert could offer conflicting couples to test some of the techniques used by psychologists in such cases. One of them is for spouses to make questionnaires of a family contract. They include topics related to the various sides of a family life (about the habits and values, friends and relatives, family responsibilities, money and the economy). Discussing these topics, the young couples will learn more about each other. Quickly comes the understanding that they should build family well-being together, conceding each other, and sometimes rejecting some ideas, evaluations and self-evaluations.

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National-ethnic relations are one of the most complex and sensitive areas of social work. Value of forecasting research in this field is now increasing due to the difficult economic situation and social instability in the country. Timely obtained forecast and the relevant work can prevent ethnic conflict, with its tragic consequences. Forecasting becomes an important element of social work with people with disabilities, the elderly, orphans, homeless. Not knowing emerging trends here, not foreseeing the possible problem situa­ tions in these activities, it is difficult to carry out effective social policies both at national and regional levels. With regard to the concerns of elderly people, their significance is enhanced by the projected trend of growth in this category of population. As the UN projections indicate, currently, there are 700 million persons over 60 years in the world. In 2009, the proportion of the population aged 60 years and over on an average in the world was 10,8%. It was the smallest in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (1,9%), and the highest in Japan (29,7%). By 2050, the number of people under 60 will reach 2 billion and will make more than 20% of the world population (Figure 9).



Figure 9. Aging planet

Kazakhstan crossed the threshold of the aging of the population relatively recently, but in the near future this process, according to experts, will be greatly accelerated. So, if at the beginning of 1999 the proportion of people aged 65 and over in the total population was 6,7%, in the beginning of 2004 – 7,4%, and according to the forecasts of the Kazakh experts, by 2030 this figure will increase to 11,5%. With the increasing of environmental concerns, the importance of socioecological forecasting is also enhancing. It is carried out both within the target environmental programs and in the preparation of a comprehensive forecasting covering different spectra of social sphere, programs. The current state of the social transformation of society is complex and contradictory. It arouses the population’s mixed reactions. And it is impossible to make the necessary adjustments to the conversion process without taking into account the data of social forecasting. It is an important mean of improving

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the impact both on social phenomena and processes, as well as on each individual. Issues for discussion

1. Name the practically important problems of socio-economic forecasting. 2. What are the main trends of using the results of a forecast in practice? 3. What are the approaches, goals and objectives of socio-geographic forecasting? 4. What are the fulfilled functions of the search, normative and warning types of social forecasting? 5. What are the main stages of social forecasting? 6. Classification of social forecasts depending on the look-ahead period, scope and object of study.

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References

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24. Theories and methods of geographical forecasting // Possibilities and ways: Coll. of articles / Editor-in-chief V.S. Preobrazhenskiy, I.N. Stezhenskaya. – M., 1992. 25. Environmental Encyclopedic Dictionary. – M .: Noosphere, 2002. 26. Gleick P.H. Global freshwater resources: soft-path solutions for the 21th century // Science. – 2003. – V. 302, N 5650. – P. 1524-1527. 27. Global Environment Outlook GEO. – 4 Environment for Development NY UNDS, 2007. – Р. 413. 28. Maddison A. The World Economy: Historical Statistics. – Paris: OЕCD, 2003. 29. Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L. et al. The Limiting to Growth. – N. Y.: Potomac, 1974. 30. Rodda, G. On the problems of assessing the World water resources // Geosci and water resource environment data model. – Berlin: Heidelberg, 1997. – P. 14-32. 31. Rodda G. On the problems of assessing the World water resources. – 1997. – P. 14-32. 32. Shiklomanov I.A., Balonishnikova J.A. World water use and water availability: trends, scenarios, consequences IAHS Publ. – 2003. – N 281. – P. 358-364. 33. The World Environment, 1972–1992. London: Chapmen and Hall. 34. World Development Indications. – Washington: The World Bank, 2007. 35. World Development Indicators. – Washington: The World Bank, 2008.

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Contents Introduction ................................................................................................ 3 Chapter 1. ENVIRONMENTAL AND GEOGRAPHICAL FORECASTING: THE ESSENCE AND KEY CONCEPTS.................................................................. 5 1.1. Problems of environmental and geographic forecasting........ 5 1.2. Basic concepts and definitions in forecasting...................... 11 1.3. The object and purposes of the environmental and geographical forecasting...................................................... 14 Chapter 2. ECOLOGICAL AND GEOGRAPHICAL FORECASTING: FACTORS, SPACE AND TIME............ 27 2.1. Factors of the environment of forecasting............................ 27 2.2. Types and classification of forecasts.................................... 29 2.3. Spatial and temporal scales of ecological and geographical forecasting...................................................... 31 2.4. Stages of forecasting............................................................ 36 Chapter 3. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES, PRINCIPLES AND METHODS OF ECOLOGICAL AND GEOGRAPHICAL FORECASTING......................... 39 3.1. Main approaches and principles........................................... 39 3.2. Methods of forecasting......................................................... 42 3.3. Methodological and methodical trends of development of geographic information technologies in assessing and forecasting................................................. 52 Chapter 4. ecological and geographical forecasting system.................................................. 55 4.1. Landscape and geographical forecasting.............................. 58 4.2. Economic and geographical forecasting.............................. 61 4.3. Socio-ecological forecasting................................................ 67 References .............................................................................................. 76

Introduction

Training manual

Askarova Maulken Akishovna BASICS OF THE ECOLOGICAL AND GEOGRAPHIC FORECASTING Computer makeup by K. Umirbekova

IB No 7944

Signed for publishing 20.01.15. Format 60x84 1/16. Off set paper. Digital printing. Volume 6,58 printer’s sheet. Edition: 100. Order No19. Publishing house “Qazaq university” Al-Farabi Kazakh National University KazNU, 71 Al-Farabi, 050040, Almaty Printed in the printing offi ce of the “Kazakh Universitety” publishing house

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«ҚАЗАҚ УНИВЕРСИТЕТІ» баспа үйінің ЖАҢА КІТАПТАРЫ Родионова И.А. Дүниежүзінің экономикалық, əлеуметтік жəне саяси географиясы: оқу құралы / И.А. Родионова, Г.Н. Нүсіпова, А.А. Тоқбергенова, – Алматы: Қазақ университеті, 2014. – 413 б. ISBN 978-601-04-0743-5 Оқу құралында дүниежүзінің саяси картасы, дүниежүзі шаруашылығының ресурстық мүмкіндігі мен географиясы жəне халқы қарастырылған, сонымен бірге Қазақстан Республикасына да экономикалық-географиялық сипаттама берілген. 5В060900, 5В011600-География мамандығы студенттеріне пəннің оқу бағдарламасына сəйкес негізгі тақырыптар бойынша құнды мəліметтер ұсынылған. Ақтымбаева Ə.С. Туроперейтинг: оқу құралы / Ə.С. Ақтымбаева. – Алматы: Қазақ университеті, 2014. – 196 б. ISBN 978-601-04-0732-9 Оқу құралы 5В090200 – «Туризм» мамандығы жоспарындағы «Туроперейтинг» пəнінің бағдарламасына сай құрастырылған. Оқу құралында берілген теориялық, практикалық жұмыстарының тапсырмалары студенттердің өздік жұмыстарын жасауға көмектеседі. Бұл оқу құралы туризм мамандығы оқытылатын студенттерге, университеттер мен институттардың туризм, қызмет көрсету саласында қызмет етуші мамандарға арналған. Практикум по геодезии: учебное пособие. – Алматы: Қазақ университеті, 2014. – 180 с. ISBN 978-601-04-0753-4 Учебное пособие соответствует государственному образовательному стандарту направления подготовки дипломированных специалистов специальности 5В071100 – Геодезия и Картография, 5В090300 – Землеустройство, 5В090700 – Кадастр. В первой главе изложены практические вопросы по решению инженерно–технических задач по топографическим картам; работе с техническим теодолитом; производству теодолитной съёмки, работе с нивелиром. Во второй главе рассмотрен порядок производства геодезических работ; геодезические разбивочные работы; нивелирные работы; геодезические работы в строительстве. Методические рекомендации по прохождению учебных и производственных практик для студентов специальности «5В090200-Туризм»: учебное пособие / Сост.: К.А. Искакова, А.А. Жакупова. – Алматы: Қазақ университеті, 2014. – 48 с. ISBN 978-601-04-0829-1 Практика студентов – это составная часть основной программы высшего профессионального образования, направленная на закрепление теоретических знаний, полученных студентами в ходе обучения, приобретение и совершенствование практических навыков в различных областях будущей профессиональной деятельности. Предназначается для студентов высших учебных заведений, где введены специальности или специализации по туризму. Шушарина Л.М. Лабораторный практикум по специальным методам прогноза погоды: практикум / Л.М. Шушарина, Г.О. Оракова. – Алматы: Қазақ университеті, 2014. – 100 с. ISBN 01-04-0745-9 Практикум подготовлен в соответствии с программой курса «Специальные методы прогноза погоды». Он содержит десять лабораторных работ. Основное внимание в них уделено вопросам Приобретения студентами практических навыков составления прогнозов различных метеовеличин и явлений по территории Казахстана на 12, 24 и 36 часов. Каждая лабораторная работа включает краткие теоретические сведения, задачи и методические Указания по их выполнению. Кітаптарды сатып алу үшін «Қазақ университеті» баспа үйінің сату жəне маркетинг бөліміне хабарласу керек. Байланыс телефондары: 8 (727) 377-34-11. E-mail: [email protected], cайт: www.read.kz, www.magkaznu.com

Ә. С. АҚТЫМБАЕВА

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Оқу құралы

ПРАКТИКУМ

ПО ГЕОДЕЗИИ

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4102 ытамлА

Л. М. ШУШАРИНА Г. О. ОРАКОВА

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ПРОГНОЗА ПОГОДЫ

Учебное пособие

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