An investigation of the predictive value of the reading expectancy formula as applied in high and low extremes of intelligence

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An investigation of the predictive value of the reading expectancy formula as applied in high and low extremes of intelligence

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AH INVESTIGrATIOH OF THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF THE READING EXPECTANCY FORMULA AS APPLIED IN HIGH AND LOW EXTREMES OF INTELLIGENCE

A Thesis Presented to the Faculty of the School of Education University of So\ithorn California

In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Science In Education

by Lucresla Hardin Denton June

1942

UMI Number: EP54193

All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion.

Dissertation Publishing

UMI EP54193 Published by ProQuest LLC (2014). Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code

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T h is thesis, w r it t e n u n d e r the d ir e c t io n o f the C h a ir m a n o f the c a n d id a te ’ s G u id a n c e C o m m itte e a n d a p p r o v e d hy a l l m em bers o f the C o m m itte e , has been pre se n te d to a n d a ccep ted by the F a c u lt y o f the S c h o o l o f E d u c a t io n o f T h e U n iv e r s it y o f S o u th e rn C a l i f o r n i a in p a r t i a l f u l f i l l m e n t o f the re q u ire m e n ts f o r the degree o f M a s t e r o f Science in E d u c a tio n .

D ean Guidance Com m ittee

Irving B. Melbo C hairm an

D. Welty Lefever

Loui s P • Thorpe

TABDE OP CONTESTS

CHAPTER I.

PAGE

THE NATURE AND SCOPE OP THE INVESTIGATION . . . . The problem # * * » * *

**

+ ■•** ♦ * * • * *

-3.

Statement of the problem

., , . • ■* . . . .

1

Importance of the problem

* •• • ...........*

1

*.... . . . . . . .

3

Definitions of terms used . Predictive value

3

Expectancy age or grade placement • • • . « »

3

Extremes of Intelligence

3

Hatlve ability

. . . . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . . . . .

Regression

II*

I

« . . .

4

»•»

4

Plan of the study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4

Historical background . . . . . . . . . . . .

4

Procedure « * • * * . ♦ * « • • ■ * # ■ » * * * * * #

5

Results of the study

* . . . . . . . . . . .

5

Summary and conclusions • * . . . . . . . . .

5

HISTORICAL BACKGROTJHD - • • ' * • • * * . * • * .

6

The testing movement

« . . * . * . »

Development of mental tests Character of tests

6 *

. . . . . . . . . . . . .

Derivation of norms . . . . . . .

S

...........

TJses of tests • * # * * * » * ♦ ♦ * * « # • * Nature of mental ability and mental growth The Achievement Quotient

...........

Development of the A. Q. concept

6

9 10



10

. . . .

12

• * * . . .

12

Hi CHAPTER

PAGE Weaknesses of the A# Q* concept . * * * * ♦

*

The prealetence of the A*. The Expectancy Age concept Regression

14 *

**

IS

♦ # * * * * ■* ♦ * #' * * » * -■*

*.#■

IS

*



17

* *

*♦

17

* ♦ .* * * ♦

IQ

The Expectancy Age

* * * * * * *

* * * * * * * * * *

Practical uses of the X* A* * » . * * * Summary * .* » » * * • • • xxx*

proceotre

** #■ *

, .

T h e a s v&

*# *

14

* *

*

*



m

*

*

* *■ *

*

*

* * * * *

19

*

* *

19

*

19

* *

Sources of the data * * * * * * * * * * * * Selection of the limits- . * * * * * * * * * *

20

Findings with regard to the data

20

Use of the data * * . - * * * • *

**.****

* *. -* .* -* .*■ * ♦



21

Case cards

* * * #. *• ■ * * * > . * - # » • * * * ■ # * *

21

P e ^ jtu t & o n s

*

23

Correlations Constant error

*

*

»

*

# * ♦ ■ * ■ * » • # ♦ *

• «•******.*•

* .*

* * * ■* *

23

* . * . » « * * „ * « » • * • •

2.3

Relationship qf reading and intelligence tests

• * * * *

*■

*

'Error in measurement

m

*

RESULTS OF THE STUDY

♦ *

* * .** * *

Summary* * * * * < ■ * * * * * * * IV*

**

* * * *

23

• * * * . *

24

■•■ *

» * * * * * * *

*

* * . • * * . * * * , * * .

26

Reading grade placement and chronological age Dov latx ons

. » * • * » •

«

**

*



*

*



*

*

2o

• »

26 26

iv CHAPTER

PAGE Correlations :*.**«.••

• • •» •

Heading grade placementand "Mental 'Deviations

Age . « .

............ , . *

0

0

■9

0 - 0

0

0

m



«

28 28

.. * » * * *

*

«

*

0

-0

Reading grade placement and expectancy age . * *

31

Deviations' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

51

0 orre 1a11ons * * • » • * • • * « * * * * ■ • * » ■ *

ol

Summary V*

** * * * *

« *« * * « * ■* » *

STJMMAKY AND OOHCLBSIOHS Summary

« «•

**♦*..

* *# * * • * » • *

** ♦ •* * • •»

*

* ♦•

35 «.* *

# * * *

Chronological age grade placement Mental, agegrade placement

35 35

. . . .

35

Expectancy age .grade placement......... . . \

36

Conclusions

. •»

34L

., .

» » * * • • * * * * « . * » * * * * » *

Suggestions for further study BIBLIOGRAPHY * .............

. . *

• .

36

.......... ,

37 38

LIST OF TABLES PAGE

TABLE I*

Test Combinations with Humber of Pup11a Taking each * * * ■# * * * * * «■ * ♦ * » ■ * * * • * ■ * *

II*

-Deviations In Reading Grade Placement from Chronological Age Grade Placement

III*

.* * • , » *

. * . * * . *

SO

Deviations In Reading Grade Placement from Expectancy Age Grade Placement * * * . * * * *

V*

27

Deviations in Heading Grade Placement from Mental Age Grade Placement . . .

IV*

22

32

Results of Reading Grade Placements Correlated with Chronological Age* Mental Age* and Expectancy Age « • • • » • • • • • * *

. * » *

S3

CHAFFER X THE HATOKB ARB SCOPS OF THE IOTB5TX0ATX0E ©i© narked changes in education during the past twenty years have been largely due to the recognition of individual differences*

From this recognition has developed the testing

movement which has profoundly effected educational philosophy, methodology, and the organisation of schools*

Of the m s s of

research carried on in this field, that which deals with the predictive U30s of standardised tests has boon of great prac­ tical value*

The present study was concerned with one phase

of that problem* I*

THE PROELEH

Statement of the problem*

The purpose of this study

was to determine the predictive value of the reading expect­ ancy formula for the extremes of intelligence, 75 X* 4* and below or 130 I* 4* and above*

For this purpose the deviations

of reading expectancy, X* A*, and mental age, IT* A*, were compared with actual reading grade placements, as determined by standardised re adinglt esfcs j -for a selected group of Junior high school student s * Importance of the problem*

One of the most important

functions of the school is to provide the opportunity for the individual to develop to the limit of his native capacity*

2 It is obvious that the same levels of achievement cannot he expected of students of widely diversified mental abilities* It follows that the problem of just what degree of profieieney is to be expected of the individual, taking into consider­ ation such factors as age, Intelligence, and the like, is of extreme importance for teaching and marking. In the Los Angeles Gity Schools, the expectancy age or grade placement is considered the best measure of probable achievement for a given child, as it takes Into consider­ ation the chronological and statistical aspects of regres1 'This concept is discussed more fully in the following slon.7 chapter of this study.

At this point, it is only necessary

to point out that the expectancy age of each child is recorded on the Cumulative Record Card with other significant data, such as Intelligence quotient, reading grade placement, and arithmetic fundamentals and reasoning grade placements, which indicates the Importance attributed to this concept from the standpoint of educational guidance.

Here It Is readily

available to the teacher and in constant use in guidance and teaching. It is evident that the expectancy age is of great value in determining to what extent the individual child is T“ “ Outline of Procedure for Educational Guidance in Elementary EchooTs (Educa11onaY'Research^ana Guidance, DIvTsTon"of "instrue11on.and Curriculum, Los Angeles City School District, Revised, February, 1959), p. 39.

3 working up to capacity*

However, It was recognized that the

extremes of the intelligence quotient range might present different results, due to the facts of regression*

For this

reason, a study of the extremes was considered desirable* Every phase of a problem so Intimately related with the teach­ ing and marking of the Individual should be the subject of minute scrutiny* XI*

DEFINITIONS OF TERMS TTSBD

Predictive value*

Predictive value was taken to mean

the accuracy with which the actual grade attained from a gen­ erally accepted standardized test could be foretold from any other datum or combination of data* Expectancy age or grade placement*

Expectancy, also

referred to as the X. or X* A*, is given in terms of age, usually months, or grade placement*

It Is the level of

achievement which a child should attain according to his chronological and mental age and Is derived by dividing the sum of twice the mental age plus the chronological age, ex­ pressed In months, by three*

The formula for obtaining the

X* A. is X. A. «= 2 M* A. 4- Q. A, 3 Extremes of intelligence*

For the purposes of this

paper, the extremes of intelligence were taken to mean those eases in which the 1. Q*fs were 75 and below or 130 and above*

4 Katlve ability.

In this report, native ability was

interpreted as meaning that group of innate capacities which enable the Individual to learn to a degree determined by the amount of the capacities, with which he Is endowed*

This abil­

ity was taken to be measurable by standardized intelligence tests, without regard to the causal factors of inheritance and environment* Regression*

There were two meanings for the term regres­

sion as used in this study*

The first refers to the decreasing

rate in learning due to age*

The second was taken to mean that

function of the ,!!Law of Uneven Distribution of the Effects of Specific Factors”^ which accounts for a second considered Item inverting to the natural mean* III.

PLAN OF THE STUDY

The problem was considered under four main headings* Historical background*

Under this heading the follow­

ing subdivisions were considered: 1* A brief review 2. An account of

of the

testing movement.

the Achievement Quotient idea.

3. An explanation of theExpectancy Age concept* ——

g

,

Alice Horn, Uneven Distribution of the Effects of Specific Factors (Southern Gal1fornia Educat!on 'MonograpKs, Ho. 12, Los Angeles: The University of Southern California Press, 1941).

Procedure.

In this section the selection and treats

ment of the data used in this paper were described. He stilts of the s fcudy#

The findings of the study were

given in this part of the paper*. Summary and conclusions*

Under thisvheading were listed

the conclusions drawn from the findings of the study,, together with recommendations for' practical application and further study*

CHAPTER II HISTORICAL BACKGROUND In order to understand the nature* use* and place* .In educational thought, of the Expectancy Age concept* a brief review of the testing movement was considered necessary*

As

the Achievement Quotient idea had for one of Its principal uses the measuring of the degree to which an individual was workIng up to capacity* or expectancy in a less technical meaning of the term* its development was traced and explained* An understanding of these two educational developments* to­ gether with the X. concept* were fundamental to the present study* I*

THE TESTING MOVEMENT

Development of mental tests.

The recognition and study

of individual differences began in the psychological laboratory about fifty 3/ears ago*. Binet 1 was one of the first psych­ ologists who worked on the problem of mental tests.

Early

in this century* he developed a scale of the Blnet-Simon scale type which was of practical value*

He was especially con­

cerned with tests of memory and tactual discriminations*

Frank N. Freeman* Mental Tests (Boston: Miff11n Companj9 1939)* p.HST

Houghton

At

7 Q about the same time, GatteXl'' carried, on experiments with reaction time, and Go.lton with the inheritance of mental traits..

Some of these experiments were carried on with

students of Columbia University said reported as early as 1901.

However, as the first tests were restricted to the

psychology laboratory, they were very theoretical in charac­ ter. ■Also, there was no basis of comparison as they were not standardized*

Added to those shortcomings was the fact that,

dealing mostly with sensory and motor processes, they were limited, in scope*

It was not unnatural that results were

negati\?*e at first, and that interest in them waned* However, tests based on the method of correlation statistics were also being developed and received a great impetus during World War I*

At that time, Dr. Yerkes, then

president of the American Psychology Association, offered, his services*

With a staff of assistants and the unsegregated

rank and file of the army as subjects, he was able to develop rating scales* The possibilities for education were readily seen from results with the army.

Also, wide publicity naturally

resulted from the experiences of the army, so that the public, as well as the school people, became enthusiastic about the testing idea. .

g

_

Ibid., p. 36.

Sales of published tests increased

at & phenomenal rate,

Freeman reports that In 1922-23,

300,000 copies of the National Intelligence Test were sold, while another firm* in the same year, sold 2,500,000 Intelligence tests*

The possibilities of tests seemed limitless.

They.were hailed as a panacea for all educational ills. At present the limitations and the need for more re­ search is recognized.

Such work is being carried forward,

though■studies of special abilities and personality traits are receiving the emphasis.

The future of testing may be

influenced by Spearman and other psychologists who are work­ ing with statistical studies of test scores and factor analy­ sis.

So far, studies in these fields have resulted in contra A

dietory findings and have led to controversy,* Character of tests.

Although further experimentation

should result In tests of greater range, accuracy, and ana­ lytical power, even at the present time, they are the best instrument of educational measurement existing*

They measure

the rapidity and accuracy with which one learns as compared with others*

By selecting items In which the training is

uniform, tests attempt to measure original capacity, not 3 Ibid., p. 4. 4 Thomas McCulloch, A Study of the Cognitive Abilities of the White Bat with Special Reference t o 'Spearman^s Theory of Two factors (ContrIbu11ons to FsycKologieaL~‘r *fSeory, Vol. I No* 2, 'Durham* North Carolina: Duke University Press, 1935), p. 5V#

9 directly* tout through its modification of action*

To quote

Freeman: Mental tests are instruments for the measurement of -individual abilities or types of behavior, with maximum, emphasis on differences due to original nature rather than to training or environment#® Standardization in tests is also of the greatest im­ portance*

This means that the test has actually been given

to a sufficiently great number of individuals so that a score shows comparison with a large group.

It is this standardiza­

tion which gives individual scores significance. Derivation of norms,

The average of the point scores

for a representative group f o r m the‘norm for that particular age or grade.

Thus the norm forms the basis of comparison

between the individual and the average of the group in some particular.

Worms are derived from numbers sufficiently

large to have statistical significance and are computed for age, grade, subject, or percentile.

Theoretically age norms

are more accurate, as the grade level attained by pupils is effected by teaching, organization, policies of promotion, and the like.

For the higher grades they are not considered

so accurate due to the selective character of those grades. Practically norms are of the greatest importance.

By

comparison with the accepted norm, the success or failure of the individual or group is apparent. 5 Freeman, op. cit., pp. 21-22.

T7sea of testa, phases of education,

Testa have proved useful in many The most common use, in the past at

least, was the.grouping of pupils*.

In some cases pupils were

placed in. grades on the basis of ability alone)- In others ability plus maturity and. other factors were considered. Rigid segregation on this basis is no longer considered the best practice. The diagnostic value of tests continues to be of great help In teaching.

By such tests the particular problems of

groups or Individuals are easily found, facilitating planning for- needs. Educational and vocational guidance depend to a large extent on test results,.

Such guidance requires a foreknowledge

or'ability to predict success.

Knowledge of the capabilities

and interests of students is Indispensable In this regard. Other important uses of tests include:

determining causes

of delinquency, measuring effectiveness of educational units, studying the nature of mental growth, the relationship between heredity and environment, and the interrelationship of mental traits.

Greater refinement In the use of tests

and new uses will undoubtedly develop with further study in this field. Mature of mental ability and mental growth*

Recog­

nising the complexity of mental ability, as the result of

11

earlier experimentation, has led to an emphasis on research in the exact nature of mental ability and growth*

So far,

there has been no great concurrence of opinion beyond the fact that mental life and mental development are complex. Colvin states, 11Intelligence itself is not inborn, only the capacity to become intelligent.”

Just what these

capacities, which enable one individual to learn more or more readily, are, remains in doubt#

Some psychologists refer

to a number of related innate capacities, some to faculties, others prefer the two-factor theory or its elaborated counterpart the bi-factor theory.

The two-factor theory

accounts for total activity arising from the combination of a general and a specific factor, while the bi-factor theory accounts for activity as resulting from the interaction of two factors plus group factors.

The one answer to this whole

question is not yet known. Similarly, the nature of mental growth is not yet fully understood.

While the results of many experimental

studies indicate the same trends, they have not been conclu­ sive.

Cattell finds that:

Two studies of gifted children, one made at Stanford University and the other at Harvard University, obtained conflicting results. The Stanford findings point toward _ Stephen Colvin, 11Principles Underlying the Construc­ tion and Use of Intelligence Tests,11 Twenty.-IPirst Yearbook of the national Society for the Study of Education, Part II, 1^2, # JL«L.

a decrease, with age, in I. Q. of the superior child, while the Harvard Growth Study data point toward an in­ crease.” It is interesting to note that both the Stanford and Harvard studies show the same direction of sex difference, the super­ iority of the hoys. Odom found that, 11The ability of children to score on group intelligence tests does not stop growing before the age of 17, and very likely not until a later age.”

These find­

ings were based on a -study of the scores made by over 80,000 children, ages 5 to 19. Q Brees made a study of 1620 children employing a re­ test method*

It was found that mental growth continued through

chronological ages 17 to 19 at least.

However, no Individuals

at any chronological age or grade level were able to maintain the same I. Q* ’s, though, the score increments showed a gradual and continuous growth. II.

THE ACHIEVEMENT QUOTIENT

Development of the A. Q. concept.

Although the A. Q«

concept has long been discredited because it attempted to ~

'

j

Psyche Cattell, f*Bo the Stanford-Binet I. Q. *s of Superior Boys and Girls Tend to Decrease or Increase with Age?,” Journal of Educational Hesearch, 26:668-75, May, 1935* 8

Charles Odom, ”A Study of the Mental Growth Curve,” Journal of Educational Psychology, 20:401-16, September, 1929. 9 Clara Brees, ?fA Study of Mental Growth as Revealed by Re-Test on ferman Group Test of Mental Ability” (unpub­ lished Master1s thesis, the University of Southern California, Dos Angeles, 1934).

13 determine to what extent the child was working up to capacity* as does the Expectancy Age* a brief review of its develop­ ment and failure is In place. Franzen 10 and Odell* 11 working separately* advanced the idea of determining to what extent the child was performing up to capacity by dividing the subject, age or subject quo­ tient by the mental age or intelligence quotient.

The re­

sulting quotient* first called the A. Q* by Odell, was thought to give information.

He favored promotion* failure, grade

placement, and teacher rating on this basis.

As the method

was simple* and the results offered were great, the technique became very popular. Symonds IS attempted to improve the technique by ranking pupils on intelligence and. achievement and noting the differ­ ence.

Eater he suggested using standard deviation units in­

stead. of simple rank.

Other investigators also attempted to

improve the technique, but as the results were not success­ ful, it was apparently abandoned* ioT~ C. W. Odell, "Critical Study of Measures of Achieve­ ment Relative to Capacity," (Bureau of Educational Research, University of Illinois, Bulletin Ho. 45, Vol. XXVI, 1929)* 11 R. Franzen, The Accomp11shrnent Ratio (Teachers College Contributions to Educatxon. Ho. 125, Hew York; Teachers College, Columbia University, 1922).

12 H. A* Toops and P. M* Symonds, "What Shall We Expec the AQ?,,f Journal of Educational Psychology* XIII:517, December, 1922.

14 Weaknesses of the A. (£* concept*

The A* Q. technique

was abandoned because of weaknesses which were almost imme­ diately apparent.

It was found that the correlation between

I. 'Theory of Two Factors * Contributions to‘Psychological "Theory, Vol.‘I, Ho* 2* Durham, Korth Carolina: Duke University Press, 1935* 57 pp. Morphett, M. V. and Carleton Washburn, nWhen Should Children Begin to Read?” Elementary School Journal, 31:496-50, March, 1931* Hygaard, P. I!*, 1TA Revised Accomplishment Quotient,” Journal of Educational Research, 18:87, June, 1928. Odell, C. Vt., uCritical Study of Measures- of Achievement Relative to Capacity,” Bureau of Educational Research, University of Illinois, Bulletin Mo* 45, Vol. XXVI. Odom, Charles Leonard, tfA Study of the Mental Growth Curve with Special Reference to the Results of Group Intelligence Tests,” Journal of Educational Psychology, 20:401-16, September, 1929* Outline of Procedure for Educational Guidance in Elementary Scho’oXs. Los AngeXes Oity Schbo 1 Bistrlet, DiVlsionor Instruction and Curriculum, Education Research and Guidance, Revised February, 1939. 70 pp*

41 Thorndike, g* ffMeasurement in Education*11 Iwenty-Pirst Yearbook of the National Society for the Study of Education* Part III* Bloomington, Illinoist Public School Publishing Company, 1923. Pp. 1-9. loops* H. A. and P. M. Syraonds* f,What Shall We Expect of the iQurnal of Educational Psychology* XIII:513^528* Dec ember, '1922.