A comparative study of the accuracy of statistical and clinical methods of predicting employee success from biographical and test data

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A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE ACCURACY OF STATISTICAL AND CLINICAL METHODS OF PREDICTING EMPLOYEE SUCCESS FROM BIOGRAPHICAL AND TEST DATA

A T h esis P r e se n te d to t h e F a c u l t y o f t h e D e p a r tm e n t o f P s y c h o l o g y The U n i v e r s i t y o f S o u t h e r n C a l i f o r n i a

In P a r t i a l F u lf illm e n t o f t h e R e q u ir e m e n t s f o r t h e D e g r e e M aster o f A r ts i n P sy c h o lo g y

by S t u a r t O v e r to n P a r s o n s January 1950

UMI Number: EP63995

All rights reserved INFO RM ATION TO A LL USERS The quality o f this reproduction is dependent upon the quality o f the copy subm itted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a com plete m anuscript and there are m issing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion.

Dissertation Publishing

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This thesis, w ritten by

.

STUART. .QIERTOH. PARSONS............................................

under the guidance of / l ± s l .. Faculty Committee, and a p p r o v e d by all its members, has been presented to and accepted by the Council on Graduate S tu dy and Research in par tial fulfill­ ment of the requirements for the degree of M ST E R .O F.JR T S

Dean Date.

January 1950

Faculty Committee

Chairman

S . M. WESLEY

TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER I.

PAGE

THE PROBLEM AND DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED .

.

1

The p r o b l e m ................................................................... .

.

1

S t a t e m e n t o f t h e p r o b le m

....................................

1

Im p o r ta n c e o f t h e s t u d y

....................................

2

D e f i n i t i o n s o f ter m s u s e d

.....................................

3

A p p l i c a t i o n b la n k

. . . . .

..........................

3

........................................................................

^

S im ila r ,

r e l a t e d , a n d u n r e l a t e d .....................

4

C lin ic a l

........................................................................

5

W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e M ethod ..........................................

5

m ethod .....................

6

....................................................

6

C r ite r io n

S u c c e ssiv e c u ttin g -s c o r e The s t a n d a r d g r o u p The p r e d i c t i o n g r o u p

.

O r g a n iz a tio n o f th e t h e s i s II.

............................... • .



7

..........................

7

REVIEW OF THE L IT E R A T U R E ...................................... B io g r a p h ic a l d ata

8

....................................

8

T yp es and u s e s o f b i o g r a p h i c a l d a t a . . .

8

D e v e lo p m e n t o f t h e p r e s e n t w e i g h t e d a p p l i ­ c a t i o n b l a n k a t L o c k h e e d ....................... M ethod s o f p r e d i c t i o n ...................................

10 12

The s t a t i s t i c a l v e r s u s t h e c l i n i c a l v i e w ­ p o in t in p r e d ic t in g b e h a v io r

.....................

12

E x p e r i m e n t a l s t u d i e s c o m p a r in g t h e tw o m eth o d s o f p r e d i c t i o n

................................

16

ill PTER III*

PAG-E A DESCRIPTION OF THE SUBJECTS, DATA, AND CRI­ TERION U S E D ................................................................ The s u b j e c t s The d a t a

...............................................................

21

...................................................................................

21

The c r i t e r i o n IV .

21

.

......................................... .....

- 25

EXPERIMENTAL TECHNIQUES AND RESULTS OF THE STUDY 27 The c l i n i c a l l y p r e d i c t e d w e i g h t s

...........................

The m eth o d u s e d and t h e w e i g h t s d e r i v e d .

27 27

The c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t b e t w e e n t h e t o t a l w e ig h ts and the c r i t e r i o n The W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e m eth o d

. . . .

33

.....................................

The p r e l i m i n a r y i n v e s t i g a t i o n

37

................................

37

C o r r e la t io n c o e f f i c i e n t s betw een th e item s or t e s t s

and t h e c r i t e r i o n

The i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s The M u l t i p l e R

...........................

39

o f th e r e m a in in g ite m s 40

............................................................

Al

The r e g r e s s i o n w e i g h t s

.........................................

The p r e d i c t i o n s c o r e s

......................................

.

4A

C o r r e la t io n b etw een p r e d i c t e d and o b ta in e d s c o r e s .............................................................. The s u c c e s s i v e e u t t i n g - s c o r e m eth od E s t a b l i s h i n g t h e t e s t g r o u p s ............ The s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n g r o u p r e s u l t s S e l e c t i o n o f t h e b a t t e r y u s e d ............

. . . .

^9

49 . . . . ^9

A9

iv CHAPTER

PAGE

The p r e d ic t io n group r e s u l t s

.................................

5^

Comparison o f r e s u l t s ....................................... V.

5^

A COMPARISON OF THE RESULTS OF THE CLINICALLY DERIVED WEIGHTS, THE WHERRY-DOOLITTLE METHOD, THE SUCCESSIVE CUTTING-SCORE METHOD ............................

The method and s t a t i s t i c s u s e d ....................... B a s i s o f c o m p a r is o n

. . .

57

57

.................................

57

S ig n if ic a n c e o f d if f e r e n c e betw een means o f b e s t c a s e s s e l e c t e d by ea ch method V I.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

. .

57

....................................................

65

.....................................................................................

65

............................

65

..........................................

65

S u c c e s s iv e C u ttin g -s c o r e method ............................

66

Summary

The c l i n i c a l l y d e r iv e d w e ig h ts W h e r r y -D o o little method

Comparison summary o f a l l methods u se d

. •

67

S ig n if ic a n c e o f th e d if f e r e n c e b etw een means

6?

C o n c lu sio n s BIBLIOGRAPHY

APPENDIX A — T e s t s u s e d ............................................................ APPENDIX B — Raw d a ta from a p p lic a t io n b la n k s . •

73 . .

APPENDIX C — W h e r r y -D o o little Work S h e e ts...............................

83 91

LIST OF TABLES TABLE I. II. III.

PAGE F r e q u e n c y D i s t r i b u t i o n o f A g e s .................................

22

Frequency D i s t r i b u t i o n o f C r it e r io n S c o r e s .

29

A F r e q u e n c y D i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e Summed Ruch W e ig h t s o f t h e P r e d i c t i o n

IV .

G r o u p .....................

Summed Ruch W e ig h t s and C r i t e r i o n S c o r e s o f t h e P r e d i c t i o n G r o u p .......................... .....

V.

38

I n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n M a tr ix o f R e m a in in g B i o g r a p h i ­ c a l D a ta I t e m s ...................................................................

V II.

The I n c r e a s e Added

V III. IX .

.

..............................................

The I t e m W e ig h ts and C o n s t a n t K

^3

..........................

46,

S t a n d a r d i z a t i o n S c o r e s by t h e S u c c e s s i v e .....................

. . . . . .

52

P r e d i c t i v e E f f i c i e n c y o f S t a n d a r d i z a t i o n B at­ t e r i e s by S u c c e s s i v e C u t t i n g - S c o r e M ethod

X III.

50

C o m p o s i t io n o f T e s t B a t t e r i e s by S u c c e s s i v e C u t t i n g - S c o r e M ethod ....................................................

X II.

45

A c t u a l and P r e d i c t e d C r i t e r i o n S c o r e s by t h e

C u t t i n g - S c o r e M ethod X I.

42

I n M u l t i p l e R a s E ach I t e m Was

W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e M ethod X.

35>

C o r r e l a t i o n s o f B i o g r a p h i c a l D a ta I t e m s and T e sts w ith th e C r ite r io n

V I.

34

53

P r e d ic tiv e E ffic ie n c y of P r e d ic tio n B a tte r ie s by S u c c e s s i v e G u t t i n g - S c o r e M ethod . . . .

55

4?,

vi PACE

TABLE XIV.

A c t u a l Mean C r i t e r i o n S c o r e s o f t h e B e s t C a s e s S e l e c t e d from t h e P r e d i c t i o n Croup by R.uch! s D e riv e d W e ig h ts , B a tte r ie s,

XV.

The S u c c e s s i v e C u t t i n g - S c o r e

an d t h e W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e M ethod .

58

C o r r e l a t i o n C o e f f i c i e n t s B e tw e e n t h e B e s t Num­ b e r o f G a s e s S e l e c t e d by t h e C u t t i n g - S c o r e B a tte r ie s,

R u c h 's D e r i v e d W e ig h t s ,

and th e

W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e M ethod f o r Use i n t h e S t a n d ­ a r d E r r o r o f t h e D i f f e r e n c e B e tw e e n Means .

61

G u t t l n g - S c o r e B a t t e r i e s an d R u c h 's W e ig h t s .

62

F o r m u l a e .................................................................................. XVI.

X V II.

S ig n ific a n c e

S ig n ific a n c e

o f D i f f e r e n c e s B e tw ee n Means by

o f D i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n Means by

th e S u c c e s s iv e

C u t t i n g - S c o r e B a t t e r i e s and

t h e W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e M e t h o d ..................................... X V III.

S ig n ific a n c e

63

o f D i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n Means by

t h e W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e M ethod and R u c h ’ s W e ig h ts

........................................................................................

64

LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1.

PAGE L ockheed A i r c r a f t C o r p o r a tio n — A p p l i c a t i o n S u p p le m e n t ...................................................................................

2.

L o c k h e e d A i r c r a f t C o r p o r a t i o n — E m p loy ee P e r i o d i c R e v ie w

3.

...................................................................

26

G r a p h ic R e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e P r e d i c t i v e E f f i ­ c i e n c y o f S t a n d a r d i z a t i o n a n d P r e d i c t i o n Groups

4

23

56

Mean C r i t e r i o n S c o r e s o f B e s t S e l e c t e d C a s e s hy E a c h M ethod ..................................................................................

59

CHAPTER I* THE PROBLEM AND DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED For c e n t u r i e s men have u s e d p a s t and p r e s e n t ance to p r e d i c t th e

p e r fo r m ­

f u t u r e b e h a v i o r o f t h e i r f e l l o w men.

T h is a p p r o a c h t o p r e d i c t i o n o f t e n v a r i e s w i t h t h e o b s e r v e r , b u t has f r e q u e n t ly b een u p h e ld b e c a u se i t rem oves n o th in g from t h e t o t a l l i f e

situ a tio n .

M o r e o v e r , an i n f i n i t e

b e r o f q u a l i t i e s c a n be u s e d t o make up a c o m p o s i t e m e n t.

num­

ju d g ­

H o w ev er, fro m C a l t o n , P e a r s o n and o t h e r s c i e n t i f i c

predecessors,

th e c o n te m p o r a r y s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s h a v e i n ­

h e r i t e d th e a c t u a r i a l o r s t a t i s t i c a l app roach. recommend t h i s m eth od m a i n t a i n t h a t i t s o f n o t h a v in g to r e l y fe e lin g s.

on p e r s o n a l

T h ose who

a d v an tages c o n s i s t

ju d g m en ts o r i n t u i t i v e

T h ese s u p p o r t e r s w i l l a d m i t , h o w e v e r ,

t h a t th e

number o f f a c t o r s w h i c h may be u s e d i n a s t a t i s t i c a l p r e d i c ­ tio n are lim it e d to a c e r ta in e x te n t .

B oth o f t h e s e a p p ro a ch es

a r e w i d e l y u s e d a t p r e s e n t i n t h e e x p e r i m e n t a l and t h e a p p l i e d branches o f a l l the s o c i a l s c i e n c e s .

T h erefo re,

it

u t m o s t i m p o r t a n c e t h a t we exa m in e a n d e x p e r i m e n t a l l y

is

of

stu d y

t h e m e r i t s and l i m i t a t i o n s o f e a c h m eth od . I.

THE PROBLEM

S t a t e m e n t o f t h e p r o b le m . h e r e in ,

t h e o b j e c t i v e was t o :

(l)

I n t h e s t u d y t o be r e p o r t e d compare t h e c o r r e l a t i o n s

2 d e r i v e d fr o m a c l i n i c a l l y

d i a g n o s e d w e i g h t i n g m eth od and

t h e W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e M u l t i p l e C o r r e l a t i o n M ethod: pare th e p r e d i c t i v e e f f i c i e n c y w e ig h ts,

o f th e c l i n i c a l l y

( 2 ) com­ d ia g n o se d

t h e W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e M eth o d , a n d t h e S u c c e s s i v e

C u t t i n g - S c o r e Method*

I n a l l o f t h e s e m eth o d s a c o m b in e d

m e r i t r a t i n g s c o r e w as u s e d a s t h e c r i t e r i o n , w i t h b i o g r a p h i ­ c a l d a t a and t e s t s c o r e s b e i n g t h e

in d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s .

A n sw ers w e r e s o u g h t t o t h e f o l l o w i n g q u e s t i o n s : one o f t h e su ccess?

( 1 ) Which

t h r e e m e th o d s w i l l be m o st p r e d i c t i v e o f ( 2 ) Are w e i g h t s w h ic h a r e c l i n i c a l l y

jo b

d e r i v e d by a

t r a i n e d a n d e x p e r i e n c e d p s y c h o l o g i s t more p r e d i c t i v e c e s s th a n s t a t i s t i c a l l y

o b ta in e d sc o r e s?

Im p ortan ce o f th e s t u d y * d ic tio n s

of suc­

In th e p a s t ,

c lin ic a l pre­

i n p s y c h o l o g y h a v e f o r t h e m ost p a r t b e e n i n t h e

form o f v e r b a l s t a t e m e n t s d e r i v e d from c a s e h i s t o r i e s o r t o t a l e v a lu a tio n s.

On t h e o t h e r h a n d , s t a t i s t i c a l f o r e c a s t s

h a v e u s u a l l y e m p lo y e d some t y p e o f a n u m e r i c a l s c a l e .

In

t h i s s t u d y t h e a t t e m p t was made t o s e t up a c o n tin u u m o f w e i g h t s f o r e v e r y b i o g r a p h i c a l i t e m and t e s t

s c o r e , w ith th e

su m m ation o f t h e s e b e i n g u s e d a s t h e f i n a l p r e d i c t i v e T h is m eth o d p a r t i a l l y

sy n th e siz e s

In p e r s o n n e l s e l e c t i o n ,

score.

t h e two a p p r o a c h e s .

e m p lo y m en t m a n a g e rs a r e i n t e r ­

e s t e d i n s i m p l e and r a p i d p r e d i c t i v e d e v i c e s a s w e l l a s accu ra te

f o r e c a s t i n g m eth od s.

T h erefo re,

i t w as deemed

3 a d v a n ta g eo u s t o stu d y n o t o n ly th e p r e d i c t a b i l i t y

but a ls o

t h e tim e and l a b o r a s p e c t s o f t h e u s e o f c l i n i c a l l y

d e r iv e d

w e i g h t s o r t h e M u l t i p l e G u t t i n g S c o r e T e c h n iq u e v e r s u s t h e d e t a i l e d W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e M u l t i p l e C o r r e l a t i o n M ethod. T h is s t u d y i s m in in g

what

a lso

of

p r a c t i c a l im p o rta n ce in d e t e r ­

f a c t o r s p r e d i c t t h e s u c c e s s o f u n s k i l l e d and

s e m i - s k i l l e d w o r k e r s a t L o c k h ee d A i r c r a f t C o r p o r a t i o n .

The

i n d u s t r i a l r e l a t i o n s d ep artm en t o f t h i s c o n c e r n h as p r e v i o u s l y i n v e s t i g a t e d t h e i t e m s w h ic h p r o g n o s t i c a t e w h e t h e r an em­ p l o y e e w i l l r e m a in w i t h t h e co m p a n y .^ The p r e s e n t p a p e r s h o u l d h e l p t o d e t e r m i n e w h ic h c o m p o n e n ts w i l l b e s t f o r e ­ c a s t an i n d i v i d u a l s II.

s u c c e s s on t h e

job .

DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED

A p p lic a tio n b la n k .

The ter m

" a p p l i c a t i o n b la n k "

i s u n d e r s t o o d t o mean "a b la n k form t o be f i l l e d p erson s a p p ly in g f o r p o s i t i o n s or p r i v i l e g e s . The a p p l i c a t i o n b l a n k t io n s o f i t are fou n d .

Some

.

o u t by 2 ."

i s w i d e l y u s e d a n d many v a r i a ­ a r e v e r y l i m i t e d i n t h e number

o f q u e s t i o n s t h e y a s k a b o u t an a p p l i c a n t ;

how ever,

oth ers

^K. R. Kunze a n d L. 0 . S t o c k f o r d , "A S u r v e y o f Em ploy­ ment P r a c t i c e s , " ( u n p u b l i s h e d a r t i c l e , L o c k h e e d A i r c r a f t C o r p o r a t i o n , B u rb ank , C a l i f o r n i a , 1 9 ^ 7 ) . 2 The A m e rica n C o l l e g e D i c t i o n a r y , (New York: Random H ouse, 1 9 ^ 7 ).

in c lu d e

a g r e a t many i t e m s i n c l u d i n g : work h i s t o r y ,

tio n ,

so c ia l a f f ilia t io n s ,

to ry ,

etc.

fa m ily h i s t o r y ,

educa­

r e sid e n c e h i s ­

The fo rm u s e d a t L o c k h e e d i s q u i t e e x t e n s i v e

and i n c l u d e s many i t e m s w h ose v a l i d i t y h a s b e e n d e t e r m i n e d . In t h i s

th e sis

th e te r m

“b i o g r a p h i c a l d a t a ” r e f e r s t o t h e

i n f o r m a t i o n a c q u i r e d fr o m t h e a p p l i c a t i o n b l a n k . C r ite r io n .

The ter m “c r i t e r i o n 11 i s d e f i n e d a s

e s t a b lis h e d ru le or p r in c ip le

“an

3 f o r t e s t i n g a n y t h i n g . “ In t h i s

s t u d y t h e c r i t e r i o n w as o b t a i n e d fr o m m e r i t r a t i n g s o f e a c h e m p lo y e e by h i s

im m e d ia te f o r e m a n .

g r a p h i c s c a l e w ere a d a p t a b i l i t y , q u a lity

The t r a i t s

d e p e n d a b ility ,

o f w ork , a n d q u a n t i t y o f w o r k .

r a t e d on a jo b k n o w l e d g e ,

E ach o f t h e s e

tr a its

w as g i v e n a n u m e r i c a l v a l u e b e t w e e n z e r o a n d one h u n d r e d . T h ese v a l u e s w e r e t h e n sum m ated,

g iv in g each w orker a c r i ­

t e r i o n s c o r e b e tw e e n z e r o and f i v e h u n d r e d . S i m i l a r , r e l a t e d , and u n r e l a t e d . u sed in t h i s paper to d e sc r ib e an e m p lo y e e h a s h a d .

th e

T h ese w o r d s a r e

t y p e o f w ork e x p e r i e n c e

“S i m i l a . r “ i s d e f i n e d a s “h a v i n g l i k e n e s s k o r r e s e m b l a n c e . . . ““R e l a t e d “ means “a s s o c i a t e d , c o n n e c t e d , 5 o r a l l i e d by n a t u r e . “ “U n r e l a t e d ” i s t h e anton ym o f r e l a t e d .

3I b i d . , p . 287. ^I b ld . , p.

1127.

5I b i d ., p . 1022.

5 An e x a m p le h e r e may h e l p t o c l a r i f y ter m s i n t h e f o l l o w i n g c o n t e x t . t i o n as a m etal la t h e

th e u se o f th e s e

I f an a p p l i c a n t f o r a p o s i ­

o p e r a t o r h a d p r e v i o u s l y b e e n e m p lo y e d

a s a wood l a t h e o p e r a t o r , h i s p a s t e x p e r i e n c e w o u ld he c o n ­ sid er ed as s im ila r . o p era to r, la te d .

If

sa le sm a n ,

I f he had w orked a s a d r i 1 1 - p r e s s

h i s f o r m e r e m p lo ym en t w o u l d b e c l a s s i f i e d a s r e ­ th is

i n d i v i d u a l ’ s o c c u p a t i o n had b e e n t h a t o f a

i t w o u ld b e c a t e g o r i z e d a s u n r e l a t e d .

C lin ic a l.

T h is ter m may be d e f i n e d a s

“o c c u p i e d w i t h

i n v e s t i g a t i o n o f t h e l i v i n g s u b j e c t by o b s e r v a t i o n , a s d i s t i n g u i s h e d fro m c o n t r o l l e d e x p e r i m e n t . "

6

In th e e x p e r im e n ta l p o r t io n s o f t h i s p a p e r ,

t h e w ord

“c l i n i c a l 1* w i l l r e f e r t o s u b j e c t i v e w e i g h t i n g o f p r e d i c t i v e i t e m s by D r. F l o y d L. R uch, P r o f e s s o r o f P s y c h o l o g y a t t h e U n iv e r sity

o f S ou th ern C a l i f o r n ia .

“C l i n i c a l p r e d i c t i o n "

a n d “i n d i v i d u a l p r e d i c t i o n " a r e p h r a s e s t h a t w i l l be u s e d s y n o n y m o u s ly . W herry-Do o 1 i 1 1 1 e M eth od .

7

T h is m eth o d i s

t i o n o f t h e l o n g e r D o o l i t t l e m e th o d . tip le

a m o d ific a ­

I t y i e l d s maximum m ul­

c o r r e l a t io n c o r r e c t e d fo r th e chance e r r o r a tte n d a n t

I b i d ., p. 226. 7

W. H. S t e a d a n d C. L. S h a r t l e , p . 3 7 • 2 H. E . B u r t t , P r i n c i p l e s o f Employment P s y c h o l o g y , ( r e v i s e d e d i t i o n ; New York: H a r p e r and B r o t h e r s P u b l i s h e r s , 1 9 ^ 2 ) , p . *KL8.

In d e s c r i b in g th e b e n e f i t s o f t h i s type o f b la n k , H. S . K enagy s a y s : The w e i g h t e d a p p l i c a t i o n b l a n k h a s t h e a d v a n t a g e s o f c o n t a i n i n g o n l y i t e m s t h a t h a v e a d e f i n i t e known s i g n i ­ f i c a n c e f o r s u c c e s s , b e i n g s c o r e d so s i m p l y t h a t a c l e r k c a n g r a d e i t , and so f r e e fro m c h a n c e o r o p i n i o n e r r o r s th a t i t s r e l i a b i l i t y i s a s s u r e d . 3 W e ig h t e d a p p l i c a t i o n b l a n k s h a v e b e e n u s e d i n t h e b s e l e c t i o n o f l i f e in su r a n c e sa le sm en , t a x i d r iv e r s , t e l e ­ ph one company e m p l o y e e s ,

sh o e s a l e s m e n ,

so a p m a n u fa ctu rin g p e r s o n n e l, t o why t h e s e sure,

tramway o p e r a t o r s ,

a n d many o t h e r s .

In r e g a r d

i t e m s h a v e p r e d i c t i v e v a l u e a n d w h at t h e y mea­

E . K. G u t h r ie w r i t e s :

The p r a c t i c a l m ea n in g o f a p e r s o n a l i t y t r a i t i s p o ­ t e n t i a l b e h a v io r . S i n c e t r a i t s a r e so d i f f i c u l t t o mea­ s u r e , we may m ea su r e an i n d i v i d u a l ' s s k i l l s , h i s p h y s i c a l f e a t u r e s , th e l o c a t i o n o f h i s e a r l y e n v iro n m en t, h i s a ffilia tio n s , etc. Each o f t h e s e s e t s o f c i r c u m s t a n c e s c o n v e y s p r a c t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n and g i v e s a b a s i s f o r p r e ­ d i c t i n g b e h a v io r .

:

I n t h e a p p l i c a t i o n b la n k we may r e q u i r e t h e s t a t e m e n t o f sp o n so rs as to h is in t r o v e r s io n or e x tr a v e r s io n , h i s g e n e r a l h o n e s t y , h i s l o y a l t y , an d h i s i n d u s t r y . But th e u s e f u l i n f o r m a t i o n on t h i s b l a n k i s more l i k e l y to be h i s p a s t reco rd o f o c c u p a tio n s, h is s p e c i f ic s k i l l s , h is f i n a n c i a l s t a t u s , h i s m a r it a l and p o l i c e r e c o r d . H is p a s t a f f i l i a t i o n s , p o l i t i c a l and r e l i g i o u s , o f f e r b e t t e r a n d more s p e c i f i c p r e d i c t i o n s o f h i s f u t u r e , th an any c f

3 h . S . Kenagy a n d G. S . Yoakum, The S e l e c t i o n and T r a i n i n g o f S a l e s m e n . (New York: M cG ra w -H ill Book Company, I n c ., 1 9 2 5 ), p. 9b. b / W. D. S c o t t , e_t a l . , P e r s o n n e l M anagem ent. ( t h i r d e d i t i o n , New York: M cG ra w -H ill Book Company, I n c . , 1 9 4 1 ) , pp. 1 0 3 -0 4 .

10 o f t h e t r a i t s we u s u a l l y t h i n k o f a s p e r s o n a l i t y t r a i t s . I t i s j u s t t h i s p r e d i c t i v e v a lu e th a t i s r e q u ir e d o f a p e r s o n a l i t y t r a i t and n o t h i n g more.-* D e v e lo p m e n t o f t h e p r e s e n t w e i g h t e d a p p l i c a t i o n b l a n k a t L ockheed,

In Ju n e,

a s t u d y a t L o c k h ee d t o

1 9 ^ 7 , Kunze and S t o c k f o r d

6 co n d u cted

a s c e r t a i n w h e t h e r o r n o t t h o s e em­

p l o y e e s who r e m a in e d w i t h t h e company w e re c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a d i f f e r e n t p a t t e r n o f f a c t o r s th a n t h o s e who l e f t . hundred f o r t y

in d iv id u a ls

Two

i n t h e p o s i t i o n s o f A s s e m b ly H e l p e r ,

E l e c t r i c a l Bench A s s e m b l e r , M a in t e n a n c e H e l p e r , E l e c t r i c a l In sta lle r s,

and o t h e r s w ere u s e d i n t h i s

g r o u p s w o u ld be c o m p a r a b l e ,

stu d y .

So t h a t t h e

t h e number o f e m p l o y e e s i n e a c h

o c c u p a t i o n was k e p t a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e same f o r e a c h g r o u p . U s in g b io g r a p h ic a l d a ta ,

th e a u th o rs d e ter m in e d

c r i t i c a l r a t i o s b e t w e e n t h e g r o u p t h a t r e m a in e d w i t h t h e company ( A c t i v e s ) a n d t h o s e who v o l u n t a r i l y a c tiv e s).

ter m in a ted (In ­

The f o l l o w i n g f a c t o r s w ere f o u n d w h i c h sh o w e d

s ig n ific a n t d iffe r e n c e s: 1.

Those w h o se r a t e o f p a y o v e r th e p a s t tw o y e a r s sh o w ed a m arked i n c r e a s e ,

f o l l o w e d by a r a t e

^Edwin R. G u t h r i e , “P e r s o n a l i t y i n Terms o f A s s o c i a ­ t i v e L e a r n i n g , H P e r s o n a l i t y and t h e B e h a v i o r D i s o r d e r s , ( V o l . I , e d i t e d by J o s e p h McV. H un t, New York: The R o n a ld P r e s s C o ., 1 9 ^ 4 ), pp . ^ 9 - 6 9 .

6

K. R. Kunze a n d L. 0 . S t o c k f o r d , M A S u r v e y o f E m ploy­ ment P r a c t i c e s , ( u n p u b l i s h e d a r t i c l e , L o c k h e e d A i r c r a f t C o r p o r a t i o n , B u rb ank , C a l i f o r n i a , 1 9 ^ 7 ) .

r e d u c t i o n up on e n t e r i n g L o c k h e e d , a r e more a p t to ter m in a te v o l u n t a r i l y . I f a n i n d i v i d u a l ^ w ork e x p e r i e n c e

s e q u e n c e im­

m e d i a t e l y b e f o r e c o m in g t o L o c k h e e d was from a r e la te d to a sim ila r to a s i m i l a r jo b , la te d h is

jo b ,

o r from an u n r e l a t e d

o r fr o m an u n r e l a t e d t o a r e ­

j o b , h e sh ow ed a p o s i t i v e

d i r e c t i o n tow ard

L o c k h e e d a s s i g n m e n t and was more l i k e l y

to

be an i n d i v i d u a l who r e m a in e d w i t h t h e com pany. The c o n v e r s e o f t h i s w a s a l s o

found to h o ld .

The A c t i v e s h ad more s i m i l a r and l e s s

r e la te d

an d u n r e l a t e d t r a i n i n g t h a n t h e I n a c t i v e s . One o f t h e g r e a t e s t d i f f e r e n c e s w as fo u n d i n t h e fa cto r,

“Number o f m o n th s l i v e d i n S o u t h e r n

C a l i f o r n i a . M The A c t i v e s h a v i n g l i v e d i n S o u t h ­ e r n C a l i f o r n i a c o n s i d e r a b l y l o n g e r th a n t h e In a c tiv e s. The A c t i v e s w ere s l i g h t l y

o ld e r .

A g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e A c t i v e s w ere m a r r i e d , a n d more h a d d e p e n d e n t s . More o f t h e A c t i v e s w e r e e m p lo y e d when a p p l y i n g f o r w o r k ,a n d more o f t h e I n a c t i v e s h a d j u s t l e f t m ilita r y s e r v ic e . The I n a c t i v e s h ad moved a r o u n d from p l a c e to p l a c e c o n s i d e r a b l y more t h a n t h e A c t i v e s #

12 II.

METHODS OF PREDICTION

The s t a t i s t i c a l v e r s u s t h e c l i n i c a l v i e w p o i n t i n p r e ­ d ic tin g

b e h a v io r .

In th e p a s t t h i r t y y e a r s ,

a s p sy ch o lo g y

and th e o t h e r s o c i a l s c i e n c e s h ave b een m a tu r in g , many c o n f l i c t i n g p o i n t s

one o f t h e

o f v iew t h a t has d e v e lo p e d i s

s t a t i s t i c a l v s - th e c l i n i c a l q u e s t io n .

th e

On one s i d e o f t h e

f e n c e we h a v e t h e p s y c h o m e t r i c i a n w i t h h i s s t a t i s t i c a l o r a c ­ t u a r i a l a p p ro a ch in d e a l i n g w it h p s y c h o l o g i c a l p r o b le m s. th e o th e r s i d e ,

th e c l i n i c i a n

sta n d s w ith h is

in d iv id u a l or

c l i n i c a l m eth o d o lo g y rea d y t o p r e d i c t b e h a v io r . mous s i t u a t i o n e x i s t s

in

On

T h is d i c h o t o -

th e a p p lie d f i e l d a s w e l l as th e e x ­

p e r im e n ta l. I n d e f i n i n g and a r g u i n g t h e b e n e f i t s from a p u r e s t a t i s t i c a l a p p r o a c h ,

t o be d e r i v e d

L u nd berg s t a t e s :

C ase s t u d i e s becom e s i g n i f i c a n t l y s c i e n t i f i c o n l y when t h e y a r e c l a s s i f i e d o r su m m a rized i n some way so t h a t t h e u n i f o r m i t i e s i n l a r g e num bers b e g i n t o s t a n d o u t a n d g r o u p th e m se lv e s in t o g e n e r a l p a tte r n s or ty p e s . I t i s in t h is p r o c e s s o f s u m m a r i z a t i o n , w i t h o u t w h ic h a l a r g e number o f ca se s t u d ie s are p r a c t i c a l l y u s e l e s s fo r s c i e n t i f i c pur­ p o s e s , t h a t t h e s t a t i s t i c a l m e th o d , i n c r u d e r o r more r e ­ f i n e d fo r m , i s n o t o n l y u s e f u l b u t n e c e s s a r y . 7 In v o c a tio n a l s e l e c t i o n , w h ic h t h i s p a p e r d e a l s ,

o f p sy ch o lo g y w ith

th e u s e o f s t a t i s t i c a l p r o c e d u r e s

has been in c r e a s in g r a p id ly . to

th e f i e l d

T h is i s p r o b a b l y p a r t i a l l y due

the f a c t t h a t by u s i n g th e a c t u a r i a l a p p ro a c h ,

th e p s y c h o l­

o g i s t c a n a c t u a l l y d e m o n s t r a t e t o t o p m a n ag em en t, by t h e u s e 7 'G-eorge L u n d b e rg , S o c i a l R e s e a r c h , d r e e n and C o . , 1 9 2 9 ) , p . 1 9 2 .

(New York:

Longmans

13 o f f i g u r e s and g r a p h s w h ic h t h e y u n d e r s t a n d , in g s in d o lla r s th a t h is s e l e c t i o n

th e a c tu a l sa v ­

b a tte r y has a c h ie v e d .

In a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h i s p o s i t i o n F r e y d w r i t e s : The f i e l d f o r t h e p s y c h o l o g i s t i n i n d u s t r y i s e x p e r i m e n ta l-r e se a r c h . As s o o n a s t h e p s y c h o l o g i s t f o r s a k e s h i s e x p e r i m e n t a l r e s u l t s f o r h i s p e r s o n a l ju d g m e n ts , h e com es i n t o c o m p e t i t i o n w i t h s h r e w d b u s i n e s s m e n , who h a v e n o t had th e b e n e f i t o f la b o r a t o r y t r a i n i n g , bu t have been f o r c e d i n c o n t a c t w i t h a l l t y p e s and s o r t s o f human b e ­ in g s. The p s y c h o l o g i s t c a n n o t p o i n t t o f a c t o r s o t h e r t h a n t e s t s c o r e s u p o n w h ic h h e b a s e d h i s c o r r e c t j u d g ­ m en ts u n l e s s he k e e p s a r e c o r d o f h i s o b j e c t i v e j u d g ­ m en ts o f t h e s e f a c t o r s and c o m p a r e s r e c o r d s w i t h t h e v o ­ c a t i o n a l s u c c e s s o f t h e men j u d g e d . T h u s, h e i s f o r c e d to a d o p t th e s t a t i s t i c a l v ie w p o in t.® A s im ila r a ttitu d e

i s e x p r e s s e d by S u p e r when h e

c o m p a re s t h e d i s s i m i l a r i t i e s b e t w e e n o b j e c t i v e l y v a l i d a t e d tests

and c l i n i c a l p r o c e d u r e s i n v o c a t i o n a l s e l e c t i o n a s

fo llo w s: For th e b e s t u s e o f t e s t s i n p e r s o n n e l s e l e c t i o n and e v a l u a t i o n t h e t e s t s h a v e b e e n s u b j e c t e d t o e x p e r i ­ m e n t a l v a l i d a t i o n f o r t h e w ork i n q u e s t i o n and a r e u s e d b e c a u s e t h e r e i s an o b j e c t i v e l y d e m o n s t r a t e d r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e t e s t s c o r e s and s u c c e s s i n t h a t j o b . The p e r s o n n e l s e l e c t i o n a n d e v a l u a t i o n p r o c e d u r e d e s c r i b e d by c l i n i c i a n s i s a c l i n i c a l p r o c e d u r e w h ic h u s e s t e s t s d ia g n o s t ie & lly , but n o t p r o g n o s t ic a lly ; th e p r e d i c t i o n s a r e b a s e d on c l i n i c a l ju d g m en ts and n o t on t h e known r e l a t i o n s h i p s o f t e s t s . ' An a n t i t h e t i c

v ie w p o in t to th e p r e c e d in g q u o ta tio n s

8

Max F r e y d , “The S t a t i s t i c a l V i e w p o i n t i n V o c a t i o n a l S e l e c t i o n , M J o u r n a l o f A p p l i e d P s y c h o l o g y , 9: 3 ^ 0 - 5 6 , 1 9 2 5 . ^ D o n a ld S u p e r , A p p r a i s i n g V o c a t i o n a l F i t n e s s , York: H a r p e r and B r o t h e r s ^ 1 9 ^ 9 ) j p p . 3 3 7 - 3 8 .

(New

is

14 h e l d by many e m i n e n t ,

c o n te m p o r a r y p s y c h o l o g i s t s .

argue t h a t th e s t a t i s t i c i a n

They

s a c r if ic e s a great d eal of in ­

fo rm a tio n in o r d e r to o b ta in broad enough c l a s s e s t o a s s u r e an a d e q u a t e number o f c a s e s i n e a c h c l a s s s a m p le .

A lso ,

fro m t h e t o t a l

t h e y m a i n t a i n t h a t i n d i v i d u a l s h a v e t o o many

h e t e r o g e n e o u s and c o n f l i c t i n g t r a i t s a ssig n e d to in d iv id u a l c a te g o r ie s .

to w arrant t h e i r b e in g W a llin p o i n t s t h i s o u t

when he w r i t e s : The c a s e s t u d y i n v e s t i g a t o r c a n do w h a t t h e s t a t i s ­ t i c i a n c a n n o t d o , n a m e ly , c o n c e n t r a t e on an i n t e n s i v e , d e t a i l e d , f r e e f lo w in g a n a ly s is o f th e c o n f ig u r a t io n o f t h e l i m i t e d number o f t r a i t s w h i c h he t h i n k s i s i m p o r t a n t . 10 T h is t r e n d o f t h o u g h t i s

a lso

i n t h e f o l l o w i n g s t a t e m e n t from h i s

shown by Gordon A l l p o r t P r e s i d e n t i a l A ddress

b e f o r e t h e A m erica n P s y c h o l o g i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n i n 1939: Of t h e tw o k i n d s o f p r e d i c t i o n a p p r o p r i a t e t o p s y ­ c h o l o g y — t h e a c t u a r i a l and t h e i n d i v i d u a l — t h e f o r m e r o n l y up t o now, h a s r e c e i v e d th e a t t e n t i o n i t d e s e r v e s . P s y c h o l o g y w i l l become more s c i e n t i f i c , i . e . , b e t t e r a b l e t o make p r e d i c t i o n s , when i t h a s l e a r n e d t o e v a l u ­ a te s i n g l e tren d s in a l l t h e ir i n t r i n s i c c o m p le x ity . H On r e t u r n i n g a g a i n t o v o c a t i o n a l s e l e c t i o n , o r ie n te d p s y c h o lo g is ts

in fe r

c lin ic a lly

t h a t , w i t h t h e h e l p o f modern

1 0 P a u l W a l l i n , "The P r e d i c t i o n o f I n d i v i d u a l B e h a v i o r from Case S t u d i e s , 11 The P r e d i c t i o n o f P e r s o n a l A d j u s t m e n t , (P a u l H o r s t, e d i t o r : S o c i a l S c ie n c e R esea rch C o u n c il, V o l. 48 , 1 9 4 1 ), pp. 24 2 -4 9 . ^Gr. W. A l l p o r t , “The P s y c h o l o g i s t ' s Frame o f R e f e r e n c e , “ P s y c h o lo g ic a l B u l l e t i n , 37: 1 -2 8 , 1 940.

15 c a lc u la to r s,

th e p s y c h o m e t r i c i a n may e a s i l y p e r m i t h i m s e l f

to degrade t o th e l e v e l o f a c le r k a d m in is te r in g t e s t s , e v a l u a t i n g them , a n d h i r i n g on t h a t b a s i s . th ey a d v o c a te th e u s e ance,

of o b se r v a tio n ,

and o th e r e s s e n t i a l c l i n i c a l l y

In stea d o f t h is ,

a n a l y s i s o f p erfo rm ­ d e r iv e d d a ta ,

te st scores,

in a r r iv in g a t a c o m p o site s c o r e .

v e in V it e le s

sta tes,

"The a c t i v e

a lo n g w ith

In t h i s

fu n c tio n in g o f th e p s y c h o lo ­

g i s t i n t h e em p loy m en t o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l w o r k e r i s a n e c e s ­ s a r y c o n c o m i t a n t t o t h e a d o p t i o n o f th e c l i n i c a l v i e w p o i n t 12

in v o c a tio n a l s e l e c t i o n . "

F or t h e p r a c t i c i n g p s y c h o l o g i s t a c o m b i n a t i o n o f th ese

two a p p r o a c h e s o r an e e c l e c t i c

v iew o f t e n p r o v e s t o

be t h e m o st v a l i d i n p r e d i c t i n g s u c c e s s . W a llin ,

"The s t a t i s t i c i a n

c a n make m u tu a l g a i n s

if

To q u o t e from

and t h e c a s e s t u d y i n v e s t i g a t o r th ey q u it q u a r r e lin g w ith each

13 o t h e r a n d b e g i n b o r r o w i n g from e a c h o t h e r . " A lso , lo g ic a l b a sis,

th ese

from a

two m e t h o d o l o g i e s may n o t be a n t a g o n ­

i s t i c , b u t r a t h e r two fo r m s o f t h e same e n t i t y . As R e i c h e n 14 b a c h s t a t e s t h e c a s e , t h e r e a r e tw o k i n d s o f p r o b a b i l i t y :

12

M o r r is S . V i t e l e s , "The C l i n i c a l V i e w p o i n t i n Voca­ t i o n a l S e l e c t i o n , " J o u rn a l o f A p p lie d P sy c h o lo g y , 9 :1 3 1 -3 8 , 1925. 13 W a llin , op . o i t . , p . 2^9. ^ H a n s R e i c h e n b a c h , E x p e r i e n c e and P r e d i c t i o n . U n i v e r s i t y o f C h ic a g o P r e s s , 1 9 3 8 ) , p p . 2 9 7 - 3 1 6 .

( C h ic a g o :

fir st,

th e m a th e m a tic a l o r s t a t i s t i c a l t y p e ,

th e l i k e l y

or

“p r e s u m a b l y “ t y p e .

be e x t e n d e d i n t o s c i e n t i f i c

and s e c o n d ly ,

T h i s s e c o n d t y p e can a l s o

la n g u a g e.

It is

th e k in d o f

p r o b a b i l i t y m o st o f t e n u s e d i n p r e d i c t i n g s i n g l e everyd ay e v e n ts su ch a s th e s h in in g o f th e H ow ev er,

c a s e s and

s u n tom orrow .

i f we i n t r o d u c e a 11c l a s s y m e a n i n g “ t o t h i s s e c o n d

typ e o f p r o b a b i l i t y , be I d e n t i c a l .

th e

two p r o b a b i l i t y c o n c e p t s a p p e a r t o

I f p r o b a b i l i t y b e l o n g s t o one c l a s s ,

its

n u m e r i c a l v a l u e may be d e t e r m i n e d b e c a u s e f o r a c l a s s o f e v e n t s a f r e q u e n c y o f o c c u r r e n c e c a n be com p u ted ; w h e r e a s , a sin g le

e v e n t b e l o n g s t o many c l a s s e s .

p o ssib le

t h a t t h e d i s p a r i t y w h ic h I s s o f l a g r a n t i n th e

lite r a tu r e

T h erefore,

it

is

b etw een th e c l i n i c a l and s t a t i s t i c a l a p p ro a ch es

may be i g n i s

fa tu u s.

E x p e r i m e n t a l s t u d i e s c o m p a r in g t h e two m eth od s o f p r e d ic tio n . a c tiv e

The i n d i v i d u a l who h a s p r o b a b l y b e e n t h e m o st

i n c o m p a r in g t h e s e

T h eo d o re S a r b i n

15

two a p p r o a c h e s e m p i r i c a l l y i s

a t th e U n iv e r s it y o f M in n e so ta .

Dr.

In a

s t u d y i n 1 9^ 1 > h e h a d f i v e c l i n i c i a n s p r e d i c t a c a d e m ic a c h i e v e m e n t fro m a p t i t u d e , a c h i e v e m e n t , p e r s o n a l i t y , in t e r e s t m easures.

15

and

T h i s w as d a t a f u r n i s h e d by t h e s t u d e n t s

T h eo d o re R. S a r b i n , “The R e l a t i v e A c c u r a c y o f C l i n i ­ c a l and S t a t i s t i c a l P r e d i c t i o n s o f A c a d e m ic A c h i e v e m e n t , “ P s y c h o l o g i c a l B u l l e t i n , 3 8 : 7 1 ^ -1 5 * O c t o b e r , 19^1.'

17 on i n d i v i d u a l r e c o r d form e and i n t e r v i e w s .

P r e d ic t io n s w ere

a l s o made fr o m a r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n i n w h ic h two m e a s u r e s p r e d ic te d

th e c r i t e r i o n .

c l i n i c a l p r e d ic tio n s

The c o m p a r a t i v e r e s u l t s sh o w e d t h e

t o be more a c c u r a t e th a n t h e s t a t i s t i ­

c a l p r e d ic tio n s. In d i r e c t c o n t r a s t to t h e s e o f an e x p e r i m e n t t h a t S a r b i n

f in d in g s w ere th e r e s u l t s

16 p e r f o r m e d two y e a r s l a t e r .

I n t h i s p a r t i c u l a r s t u d y t h e sa m p le was c o m p o se d o f 162 fresh m en a t th e U n i v e r s i t y o f M in n e so ta ,

o f w h ic h s e v e n t y -

t h r e e w e r e men and e i g h t y - n i n e w e r e women.

P r e d i c t i o n s w ere

made by c l i n i c a l c o u n s e l o r s on t h e b a s i s o f t e s t s ,

in d iv id u a l

r e c o r d s , p r e l i m i n a r y i n t e r v i e w s and o t h e r d a t a t h a t c o u l d be o b t a i n e d .

T h ese w e r e made on an e i g h t - p o i n t s c a l e ,

and

w ere c o r r e l a t e d w it h a c t u a l h o n o r -p o in t r a t i o s a t th e end o f th e q u a rter*

S t a t i s t i c a l p r e d i c t i o n s w ere made by s u b s t i ­

t u t i n g t h e v a l u e s o f h i g h s c h o o l r a n k and c o l l e g e a p t i t u d e te s t scores

i n th e p r e v i o u s l y d e r i v e d r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n .

The m ost p r o b a b l e h o n o r - p o i n t r a t i o sta tistic a lly

p r e d ic te d .

f o r e a c h s t u d e n t w as t h e n

The f o l l o w i n g c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i ­

c i e n t s w e r e fo u n d :

•^ T h e o d o r e r # S a r b i n , “A C o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e S tu d y o f A c t u a r i a l a n d I n d i v i d u a l M ethods o f P r e d i c t i o n , M A m e rica n J o u r n a l o f S o c i o l o g y . 4 8 : 5 9 3 - 6 0 2 , M arch, 19^3*

18

Type o f P r e d i c t i o n

Men

Women

1.

C lin ic a l

.3 5

.6 9

2.

S ta tistic a l

A5

.7 0

From t h i s and o t h e r s t a t i s t i c a l t r e a t m e n t o f : d a ta , S a r b in c o n c lu d e s: 1.

C l i n i c a l c o u n s e lo r s d id n o t p r e d ic t c o ll e g e a c h ie v e m ent more a c c u r a t e l y t h a n d i d s t a t i s t i c a l m e t h o d s .

2.

O th e r d a t a p r o v e d t h a t b e c a u s e t h e y a r e no more a c c u r a te , c l i n i c a l p r e d ic t io n s cannot r e p la c e s t a t i s t i c a l p r e d ic tio n s.

3.

C l i n i c a l p r e d i c t i o n s do n o t add t o t h e v a l i d i t y o f s t a t i s t i c a l p r e d i c t i o n s o f a ca d em ic s u c c e s s . I t was f o u n d t h a t i n t e r v i e w s c o u l d p r e d i c t a c a ­ d em ic a c h i e v e m e n t no b e t t e r t h a n a s i m p l e r e ­ g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n w h e t h e r t h e c r i t e r i o n was s c a l e d i n e i g h t s t e p s o r i n two s t e p s .

5*

I n te r m s o f r e l i a b i l i t y o r c o n s i s t e n c y o f p r e ­ d i c t i o n , th e a c t u a r i a l i s p r e f e r r e d t o th e c l i n i ­ c a l m e th o d .

6.

C l i n i c a l i n t e r v i e w e r s , on e s tim a te th e grades t h e i r

7.

th e a v e r a g e , over­ c lie n t s w ill r e c e iv e .

The v a r i a n c e s o f b o t h m e th o d s i s v a r i a n c e o f t h e c r i t e r i o n . 3-7

A n o t h e r e x p e r i m e n t by L. M. H an k s,

l e s s th an th e

J r .,

18

in th e f i e l d

^ I b i d . , pp. 601- 0 2 . 18 L. M. H a n k s, J r . , “P r e d i c t i o n From C ase M a t e r i a l t o P e r s o n a l i t y T e s t D a ta ; A M e t h o d o l o g i c a l S t u d y o f T y p e s , n A r c h i v e s o f P s y c h o l o g y , 2 0 7 : 1 8 , 1936*

19 of p e r so n a lity ,

co m p a re d t h e p r e d i c t i o n o f e x p e r i e n c e d

ju d ges a g a in s t t e s t

d a t a i n e v a l u a t i n g te m p e r a m e n t.

I t w as

f o u n d t h a t t h e j u d g e s h ad a t e n d e n c y t o c o n s i d e r an i n d i v i d ­ u a l b e t t e r a d j u s t e d th a n t h e t e s t

sco res in d ic a te d .

The

j u d g e s s e e m e d t o p r o n o u n c e m ost c a s e s a s h a p p y , w e l l - a d j u s t e d persons u n le ss

p ita l,

th e i n d i v i d u a l s w ere p o t e n t i a l l y n e u r o t i c .

I n an e x p e r i m e n t c o n d u c t e d a t t h e E l g i n S t a t e H o s 19 M. P . W ittman u s e d a p r o g n o s t i c s c a l e w i t h 8 l 6

p a t i e n t s s u f f e r i n g fro m f u n c t i o n a l p s y c h o s e s . a lso

The e x p e r i m e n t

i n c l u d e d a f o l l o w - u p s t u d y on ^QQ p a t i e n t s .

The p r o g ­

n o s i s s c o r e s d i s t r i b u t e d t h e m s e l v e s a l o n g a c o n tin u u m w h i c h w o u ld b e l a b e l e d

" p r o c e s s s c h i z o p h r e n i a " a t o n e e x tr e m e and

" m a n ic -d e p r e ssiv e p s y c h o s is " a t th e o t h e r . stu d y ,

th e a u th o r c o n c lu d e s ,

The f o l l o w - u p

sh ow s t h a t t h e p r o g n o s i s s c a l e

i s a b e t t e r i n d e x i n p r e d i c t i n g o u tco m e t h a n t h e u s u a l su b je c tiv e

g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s b a s e d on " f e e l i n g 11 o r " i n t u i t i o n . "

S in c e

th e l a s t

a pure s t a t i s t i c a l ,

two s t u d i e s

r e p o r te d h ere d id not u se

b u t m e r e ly a more o b j e c t i v e p r o c e d u r e ,

t h e r e d o e s n o t seem t o

be c o n c l u s i v e e v i d e n c e o f t h e s u p e r i ­

o r i t y o f e i t h e r t h e s t a t i s t i c a l o r c l i n i c a l m e th o d .

T h u s,

t h i s p a p e r , u s i n g m o d i f i c a t i o n s o f Dr. S a r b i n ' s m e t h o d s ,

•^M ary P h i l l i s W ittm a n , " E v a l u a t i o n o f P r o g n o s i s i n the F u n c t io n a l P s y c h o s i s , " P s y c h o l o g i c a l B u l l e t i n . 3 8 :

535 - 3 6 , 19^1 .

20

w i l l attem p t to c l a r i f y d isa d v a n ta g e s o f th e

and d e m o n s t r a t e t h e a d v a n t a g e s and

two m eth ods*

CHAPTER I I I A DESCRIPTION OF THE SUBJECTS, DATA, AND CRITERION USED I. Tiie s u b j e c t s ,

THE SUBJECTS

fro m whom t h e d a t a u s e d i n

t h i s stu d y

w ere t a k e n , w ere e i g h t y - t w o n o n - s k i l l e d and s e m i - s k i l l e d m a le e m p l o y e e s a t L o c k h e e d A i r c r a f t C o r p o r a t i o n , C a lifo r n ia . June,

T h ese i n d i v i d u a l s w e r e a l l h i r e d b e t w e e n

1 9 ^ 7 , an d J a n u a r y ,

19^9.

A l l o f t h e s e men came t o

Lockheed w it h o u t any lo n g - t e r m e x p e r ie n c e a i r c r a f t o c c u p a tio n , mum company w a g e .

v i a t i o n o f 7 « 29*

i n an y s k i l l e d

an d a l l s t a r t e d a t o r n e a r t h e m i n i ­

The mean a g e o f t h e g r o u p w as 2 5 * 0 , w i t h

a r a n g e b e t w e e n s e v e n t e e n and f i f t y - t w o ,

ages is

Burbank,

T h is p o s i t i v e l y

an d a s t a n d a r d d e ­

sk ew ed d i s t r i b u t i o n o f

shown i n T a b le I . ■II.

THE DATA

The d a t a u s e d i n t h i s s t u d y w ere o b t a i n e d p r i m a r i l y from L o c k h e e d ' s s u p p l e m e n t a r y a p p l i c a t i o n b l a n k a n d t h e t e s t r e s u l t s o f th e e ig h t y - t w o s u b j e c t s . ment i s

shown a s F i g u r e I .

g r a p h ic a l d a ta ite m s w i l l . b e th e t e s t s are:

n u m e r ic a lly .

The a p p l i c a t i o n s u p p l e ­

To a v o i d c o n f u s i o n ,

th e b io ­

r e f e r r e d t o a l p h a b e t i c a l l y and

The e l e v e n b i o g r a p h i c a l d a t a i t e m s

22 TABLE I

FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION OF A&ES

X*

£

5 0 -5 2

1

A7 - 4 9

1

AA—^*6

1 2

3 8 -^ 0

2

3 5 -3 7

0

3 2 - 3^

6

2 9 -3 1

1

2 6 -2 8

10

23-25.

17

2 0 -2 2

20

1 7 -1 9

21

Mean - 2 5 . 0 S ta n d a rd d e v i a t i o n » 7*29 * T h ese a g e s w ere t o t h e l a s t b i r t h d a y .

FIGURE 1 LOCKHEED AIRCRAFT CORPORATION

Rev. 1

^

Name o f A p p lica n t_________________________________________________ Date___________ APPLICATION SUPPLEMENT F ollow in g are a few q u estio n s we would l i k e to have you answ er. P le a se answer each item , even though you may have given s im ila r in form ation on th e APPLICATION FOR EMPLOYMENT.

1. 2.

What was th e h ou rly r a te o f your l a s t job? (E xclude m ilit a r y s e r v ic e ) What i s your s ta tu s a t th e p resen t tim e? Employed J u st r e le a s e d from m ilit a r y s e r v ic e J u st l e f t sch o o l Unemployed

3.

(Check the one ( l i n e th a t most (a c c u r a te ly de­ s c r i b e s your (p r e se n t s ta t u s ,

You are S in g le Married Separated D ivorced

Ij.

How many dependents have you? (in c lu d e your husband or w if e , but not y o u r s e lf )

5>.

How many months have you liv e d in Southern C a lifo r n ia ?

6.

How many tim es have you moved in th e l a s t two years? (Exclude moves during or caused by m ilit a r y s e r v i c e .)

7.

What i s your age?

8.

What i s th e e x te n t o f your ed ucation ? 9th grade or l e s s 10th or 11 grade 12th grade More than 12th grade D 0

\

N

9.

M RT LST 2 YRS

10.

ASSMD L RT

11.

XPRNC

12.

GNR TRNG

WRI TE

BELOW

THI S

LI NE

24 A.

T o t a l num ber o f m onth s o f p r e v i o u s f u l l - t i m e se r v ic e .

B.

0.

H o u r ly w age d i f f e r e n t i a l b e tw e e n l a s t p r e v i o u s e m p lo y m en t a n d s t a r t i n g

L oc k h ee d w age r a t e .

(D isr eg a r d in g a lg e b r a ic

s ig n s .)

M ajor t y p e o f p r e v i o u s work e x p e r i e n c e . la r ,

r e la te d ,

or u n r e la te d .)

D.

M ilita r y e x p e r ie n c e .

E.

Number o f y e a r s o f e d u c a t i o n c o m p l e t e d .

F.

(S im i­

M a rita l s t a t u s .

(V eteran or n o n - y e t e r a n .)

(M a rried v e r s u s s i n g l e ,

sep a ra ted

or d iv o r c e d .) (K

Number o f d e p e n d e n t s e x c l u s i v e

H.

Age i n y e a r s .

1.

Em ployment s t a t u s a t tim e o f b e i n g h i r e d a t L ockheed.

J.

(E m p loy ed o r u n e m p l o y e d . )

Number o f p e r m a n e n t r e s i d e n c e c h a n g e s d u r i n g t h e p a s t two y e a r s .

K.

o f w ife .

(Moved o r n o t m o v e d . )

Number o f m onths o f r e s i d e n c y i n S o u t h e r n C a l i ­ fo r n ia .

The f o u r t e s t s

in c lu d e :

I.

D. R. M i l l e r ’ s S u r v e y o f M e c h a n ic a l I n s i g h t .

2.

M i l l e r ' s Survey o f O b je ct V is u a liz a t io n .

3.

F . L. R u c h ’ s D e p th V i s u a l i z a t i o n .

4.

R uch’s V is u a l A t t e n t i o n .

A p p e n d ix A c o n t a i n s s a m p le s o f a l l t h e t e s t s u s e d .

25 III. The c r i t e r i o n

THE CRITERION

o f s u c c e s s f o r t h e s e e i g h t y - t w o e m p lo y ­

e e s was b a s e d on t h e i r m e r i t r e v i e w s by e a c h i n d i v i d u a l ^ im m e d ia te s u p e r v i s o r .

At Lockheed A i r c r a f t C o r p o r a tio n ,

g r a p h ic ty p e o f r a t in g s c a le 1 in g ad va n tag es: 1.

S im p lic ity .

2.

The f i n e n e s s

is

a

u s e d , w h ic h h a s t h e f o l l o w -

o f s c o r i n g c a n b e s e t by t h e i n v e s t i ­

g a to r. 3.

I t c a n be f i l l e d It is

out q u ic k ly .

i n t e r e s t i n g to th e r a t e r .

A c o p y o f t h e r a t i n g s c a l e u s e d f o r a l l h o u r l y L ock­ h e e d e m p lo y ee s i s

shown i n F ig u r e I I .

s c a l e c o m p o se d o f t h e t r a i t s

T h is m e r it r e v ie w

of A d a p ta b ility ,

D e p e n d a b ility ,

Job K n o w le d g e , Q u a l i t y o f Work, a n d Q u a n t i t y o f Work h a s shown an a v e r a g e t e s t - r e t e s t c o e f f i c i e n t o f r e l i a b i l i t y .7 9 8 s in c e

of

i t was d e v e l o p e d two y e a r s a g o .

S in ce

th is

sc a le

e m p lo y ee s b i - a n n u a l l y ,

is

s e n t o u t t o th e forem en to r a t e

some w o r k e r s i n t h e s a m p le h ad more

t h a n one r e v i e w i n t h e i r f o l d e r .

In each c a se

o n ly th e

^ J. P . G u i l f o r d , P s y c h o m e t r i c M e th o d s , (New York: M c G r a w -H ill Book Company, I n c . , 193&)* P» 2 ? 0 .

DEPARTMENT C O P Y

LOCKHEED AIRCRAFT CORPORATION EMPLOYEE PERIODIC REVIEW D EPT .

PLANT

V

NAME

S

P RE SEN T RATE

WA S E F F E C T I V E MO . | DAY | Y E A R

OCCUPATION

/PT

SENT TO DEPT. MO. | DAY | YE A R

TO BECOME EFFECTIVE MO. | DAY | YE AR

T H I S REPORT MUST REACH I N D U S T R I A L R EL AT IO N S BEFORE

SENIORITY DATE MO. | DAY j YEAR

MO.

DAY



E M P L O Y E E NO.

YEAR

D e s c rib e s p e c ific work t h e e m p l o y e e h as b e e n p e r fo rm in g d u rin g this review p e r io d a n d s t a t e t h e a p p r o x im a te le n g th o f tim e he has b e e n on this t y p e of ' w o r k in y o u r d e p a r t m e n t .

J h e f o l l o w i n g f a c t o r s a r e t o b e r a t e d . T h e o r d e r in w h i c h t h e s e f a c t o r s a r e l i s t e d in n o w a y r e f l e c t s t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e v a l u e .

DEPENDA BILITY Y o u r C o n f i d e n c e in

Refuses to or not able

U s u a l l y fo l l o w s i n ­

W illing an d ab le to

E m ployee's A bility

to carry much re sp o n ­

structions; n ee d s

a c c e p t resp o n sib ility ;

f o l l o w t h r o u g h o n all

to A ccep t Respon­

sibility; n e e d s c o n ­

so m e follow-up

r e q u i r e s li tt l e f o l l o w - u p .

a s s i g n m e n t s w i t h no

s i b il i t y

s t a n t follow -up.

O u ts ta n d in g ability to

d e ta il supervision.

Q U A N TITY O utput - Speed

E xceptionally fa st;

D o es m o re work t h a n

O u t p u t m ee ts a c c e p ta b le

O u t p u t below norm al re ­

unusual o u tp u t.

e x p e c t e d ; is f a s t ;

s t a n d a r d s ; is s a t i s f a c t o r y

q u ire m e n ts ; definitely slow .

exceeds requirem ents

ADAPTABILITY

;

Versatility;

M e e ts c h a n g e d conditions

L e a r n s we ll w i t h m i n i ­

L e a r n s f a i r l y well b u t

Is sl ow t o l e a r n ;

A djustm ent to J o b

w i t h l i tt l e e f f o r t ; h a s

m u m a m o u n t of instruc­

n e e d s d e ta ile d instruc­

has tro u b le ad ju st­

or C h a n g e d C o n ­

o u ts ta n d in g ability to

tio n ; a d ju s ts him self

tio n f o r e a c h new job.

ing him self to

ditio n s; Ease with

pick u p new jobs.

w e ll in a s h o r t t i m e .

c h a n g e d conditions;

w hich N e w Duties

n eed s co n stan t in­

are Learned.

struction,

JOB

KNOWLEDGE

']

T e c h n i c a l K n o w l-

H a s lim ited k n o w ledge of

K n o w s his j o b f a i r l y

Seldom needs help;

H a s e x c ellen t knowl­

;

ed g e of Jo b and

hi s j o b ; k n o w s n o t h i n g

w ell; h a s little knowl­

has g o o d know ledge of

e d g e o f his j o b a n d

j

R elated W ork,

o f r e l a t e d w or k.

e d g e o f r e l a t e d work.

hi s j o b a n d r e l a t e d

r e l a t e d w o r k ; is

w o r k ; is w e l l - i n f o r m e d .

v e ry w ell-in fo rm ed .

Q U A LITY A c c u r a c y in W o r k ;

M akes practically

M akes very few errors;

M akes some errors b u t

F ree d o m from

no m istakes; hig h est

is a c c u r a t e ; d o e s h i g h

d o e s p a s s a b le work.

Er r o rs

accuracy.

g r a d e work.

M akes mistakes frequently.

COMMENTS:'

W i l l c h a n g e s in r a t e o r o c c u p a t i o n R a te d by

y

|— | e s ^— '

b e r e c o m m e n d e d a t this tim e ?

If a n s w e r is " Y e s " b e s u r e t o a t t a c h a c o m p l e t e d D ept, h ea d

D ate

Executive

D ate

FORM NO.

3 411-7

C h a n g e o f S ta tu s n o t i c e t o this fo r m .

Industrial R elations

.

D ate

m

|— | ^

i n d i v i d u a l ’ s f i r s t r a t i n g was u s e d a s h i s c r i t e r i o n s c o r e . T h is m ea su r e r e d u c e d t h e e f f e c t s

o f le n g th o f a s s o c ia tio n

b e tw e e n e m p lo y e e an d f o r e m a n , w h ic h h a s b e e n f o u n d t o a d d a 2 p o s i t i v e c o n s ta n t e r r o r to m er it r a t i n g s . On t h e r e v i e w s h e e t e a c h o n e o f t h e l i n e s u s e d t o r a t e an i n d i v i d u a l on a s p e c i f i c one h u n d r e d e q u a l i n t e r v a l s .

tr a it is

grad u ated in t o

T h i s i s n o t shown on th e s c a l e ,

b u t t h e l i n e s y i e l d n u m e r i c a l e q u i v a l e n t s when m e a su r e d by a r u le r d e sig n e d fo r t h i s p u rp ose. a b e tter d istr ib u tio n

T h is p r o c e d u r e i n s u r e s

f o r e a c h t r a i t by p a r t i a l l y c a n c e l l i n g

o u t th e c e n t r a l ten d en cy e r r o r .^ I t w as deem ed a d v i s a b l e t o com b in e a l l

f i v e o f th e

t r a i t s c o r e s f o r e a c h i n d i v i d u a l i n t o one c o m p o s i t e c r i t e r i o n m easure.

T h u s,

i t was p o s s i b l e

f o r th e c r i t e r i o n v a lu e s to

range b etw een z e r o and f i v e hu n d red . b e t w e e n 12 0 a n d J&6. v a l u e s may be som ew hat an d s i n c e

The a c t u a l r a n g e was

The l o g i c a l b a s i s f o r c o m b i n i n g t h e s e ’’s h a k y , ” b u t f o r p r a c t i c a l r e a s o n s

t h e s e r a t i n g s had s u c h h i g h r e l i a b i l i t y ,

th e s t e p

was t a k e n .

L. 0 . S t o c k f o r d and H. W. B i s s e l l , ’’F a c t o r s I n v o l v e d in E s t a b lis h in g a M e r it-R a tin g S c a l e , ” P e r s o n n e l, 2 6 :9 ^ -1 1 6 , S e p t e m b e r , 19^9* P. G u ilfo r d ,o p .

c i t . , p.

2?2.

CHAPTER IV EXPERIMENTAL TECHNIQUES AND RESULTS OF THE STUDY The p r im a r y o b j e c t i v e

o f t h i s r e s e a r c h p r o b le m was

t o d e t e r m i n e w h i c h w o u ld g i v e c e s s on t h e T h erefo re,

job ;

th e b e t t e r p r e d i c t i o n o f s u c ­

t h e c l i n i c a l o r t h e s t a t i s t i c a l m e th o d .

th e f i r s t

s t e p t a k e n w as t o g a t h e r t h e b i o g r a p h i ­

c a l and t e s t d a t a , a lo n g w it h m e r i t - r a t i n g s c o r e s , e m p lo y e e f i l e s

from

a t L o c k h e e d A i r c r a f t C o r p o r a t io n * ^ T h ese d a t a

w ere t h e n t r a n s f e r r e d o n t o f i v e - b y - e i g h t c a r d s t o f a c i l i t a t e s o r t i n g a n d c o m p u t a t io n * The c a r d s w e r e t h e n d i v i d e d i n t o two g r o u p s , a “s t a n d a r d g r o u p ” and a p l i s h e d by s e l e c t i n g

“p r e d i c t i o n g r o u p . “

T h i s w as accom ­

e a c h g r o u p by a c o u n t e r b a l a n c i n g o r d e r

a c co r d in g to c r i t e r i o n

scores.

The d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c r i t e r i o n

s c o r e s i n b o t h g r o u p s w as t h u s v e r y s i m i l a r a s shown i n T a b le I I . n o r m a l,

As c a n be s e e n ,

c o n sid e r in g th e I.

the t o t a l d i s t r i b u t i o n

siz e

i s q u ite

o f t h e s a m p le .

THE CLINICALLY PREDICTED WEIGHTS

The m eth od u s e d a n d t h e w e i g h t s d e r i v e d .

At t h i s

^ A l l o f t h e raw s c o r e s f o r t h e s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n and p r e d i c t i o n g r o u p s a r e c o n t a i n e d i n A p p e n d ix B.

29 TABLE I I

FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION OF CRITERION SCORES

CRITERION SCORE

STANDARD CROUP

374— 388 359— 373 3 ^ — 358 3 2 9 — 343 314— 328 299— 313 284— 298 269— 283 254— 268 239— 253 224— 238 209— 223 I 9 4 —-2 0 8 179— 193 164— 178 149— 163 134— 148 119— 133

0 0 2 2 4 3 5 8 6 4 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 1

PREDICTION GROUP

1 0 2 0 4 4 6 8 6 3 2 1 4 0 0 0 0 0

TOTAL CROUP

1 0 4 2 8 7 11 16 12 7 4 3 6 0 0 0 0 1

N ...................................... 4 1 ........................... 4 1 ............................... 82 M e a n ............................. 2 7 3 . 0 0 . . . 2 7 5 - 7 3 - - . 2 7 5 - 2 7 S i g m a ............................ 4 5 . 1 2 . . . 4 1 .2 5 - - 75

30 p o in t,

a lis t

c o n t a i n i n g t h e names o f t h e b i o g r a p h i c a l i t e m s

and t e s t s w as t a k e n t o D r. F l o y d L. Ruoh, P r o f e s s o r o f P s y ­ c h o lo g y a t th e U n iv e r s it y o f S o u th ern G a lif o r n ia . i t e m s Dr,

From t h e s e

Ruch, who h a d n o t s e e n a n y o f t h e raw d a t a , p r o g ­

n o s t i c a t e d a s e r i e s o f w e i g h t s w h i c h he b e l i e v e d w o u ld c o r v* r e l a t e d h i g h l y w i t h s u c c e s s on t h e j o b a t L o c k h e e d , T h is i s a som ew h at d i f f e r e n t t i o n th a n i s

n o r m a l ly m ade.

type o f c l i n i c a l e v a lu a ­

I n t h e m a in ,

t h e s e w e ig h ts w ere

r a t i o n a l l y r a t h e r th a n e m p i r i c a l l y d e r i v e d ,

bu t in c o n tr a s t

w e re on an a c t u a r i a l r a t h e r th a n an I n d i v i d u a l b a s i s . th is

sen se,

th e ap p roach i s q u it e d i f f e r e n t

In

fro m t h a t o f t h e

o th e r e x p e r im e n ta l s t u d i e s rev iew ed in t h i s t e x t . I t i s an 2 e x p lic it r a t h e r t h a n an i m p l i c i t t e c h n i q u e , b e c a u s e t h i s s y s t e m c o u l d be t a u g h t an d c o m m u n ic a te d t o o t h e r s . c a l l th e s e p u r e ly i n t u i t i v e p r e d ic t io n s o f b e h a v io r ,

We c a n n o t because

t h e s e w e i g h t s w e re p a r t i a l l y drawn from e m p i r i c a l l y o b s e r v e d d a t a w h ic h t h e p s y c h o l o g i s t h a s m e n t a l l y a c c u m u l a t e d i n h i s e x p e r ie n c e

in in d u str y .

E a ch b i o g r a p h i c a l d a t a i t e m o r t e s t u s e d by Ruch w as a r b itr a r ily one,

d iv id e d in to

th ree groups w ith a w e ig h t o f z e r o ,

o r tw o g i v e n t o a s p e c i f i c

2

group.

A h ig h n u m erica l

T h e o d o r e R. S a r b i n , '’C l i n i c a l P s y c h o l o g y — A r t o r S c ie n c e ," P sy c h o m e tr ik a , 6 :3 9 1 -^ 0 0 , 19^1.

31 s c o r e h e r e was p r e d i c t e d t o be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l a r g e c r ite r io n score. I.

The f o l l o w i n g i s

P r e - L o c k h e e d wage r a t e .

R u c h 's s c o r i n g f o r m u l a : ^ (B)

A.

$ 0 . 1 5 an h o u r h i g h e r th a n L o c k h e e d — 0

B.

# 0 . 1 5 an h o u r l o w e r th an L o c k h e e d —

C.

Wage d i f f e r e n t i a l o f l e s s

0

th a n $ 0 . 1 5

hour

— 2 II.

III.

IV .

M ajor t y p e o f p r e v i o u s w ork e x p e r i e n c e . A.

U n r e la te d — 0

B.

R e la te d — 1

G.

S im ila r — 2

M ilita r y e x p e r ie n c e .

(G)

(D)

A.

N on -veteran — 0

B.

Too y o u n g o r t o o o l d f o r m i l i t a r y s e r v i c e — 1

C.

V e t e r a n —• 2

Number o f y e a r s o f e d u c a t i o n c o m p l e t e d . A.

No h i g h s c h o o l y e a r s c o m p l e t e d — 0

B.

Some c o l l e g e c o m p l e t e d o r a c o l l e g e

(E)

grad u ate

— 0 G*

Some h i g h s c h o o l c o m p l e t e d o r a h i g h

sch ool

grad u ate — 2 V

M a r i t a l s t a t u s and number o f d e p e n d e n t s . A. S i n g l e ,

sep a ra ted ,

(F&G-)

o r d i v o r c e d and w i t h no

d ep en d en ts — 0

^ L e t t e r s and n u m e r a ls a p p e a r i n g i n p a r e n t h e s e s a f t e r e a c h It e m c o r r e s p o n d t o t h e c o d e g i v e n on p a g e s 20 and 23*

M a r r ie d b u t no d e p e n d e n t s o t h e r th a n a w ife — C.

1

Any m a r i t a l s t a t u s or b e sid e s w ife —

V I,

V II.

Age i n y e a r s .

bu t w ith d ep en d en ts o th e r

2

(H)

A.

Y o u n g e s t t h i r d o f sa m p le — 0

B.

M id d le t h i r d o f s a m p le

— 1

C.

O l d e s t t h i r d o f s a m p le

— 2

Em ploym ent s t a t u s a t L ockheed.

tim e o f b e i n g h i r e d a t

(I)

A.

U n em p lo y ed —

B.

U n em p lo y ed ,

0

but l e s s

th a n one y e a r f u l l ­

tim e w ork e x p e r i e n c e — 1 0. V III.

E m p lo y e d — 2

Number o f p e r m a n e n t r e s i d e n c y c h a n g e s d u r i n g t h e p a s t two y e a r s .

IX .

(J )

A.

More t h a n one c h a n g e — 0

B.

One c h a n g e — 1

C.

No c h a n g e — 2

Number o f m o n th s fo r n ia .

o f r e s id e n c y in S ou th ern C a li­

(K)

A.

S i x m onth s o r l e s s — 0

B.

S e v e n t o t w e n t y - f o u r months — 1

C.

O v er t w e n t y - f o u r m onth s — 2

33 X.

M e c h a n ic a l I n s i g h t T e s t , A.

Raw s c o r e s i n

the lo w e s t

th ir d —

0

B.

Raw s c o r e s i n

t h e m id d le

th ir d - -

1

C. X I,

Raw s c o r e s i n

th e l o w e s t

th ir d —

0

B.

Raw s c o r e s i n

t h e m i d d le

th ir d —

1

Raw s c o r e s i n t h e u p p e r t h i r d — 2

D e p th V i s u a l i z a t i o n T e s t ,

(3 )

A.

Raw s c o r e s i n

th e l o w e s t

th ir d — 0

B.

Raw s c o r e s i n

t h e m id d le

th ir d —

Raw s c o r e s i n t h e u p p e r t h i r d —

V isu a l A tte n tio n T e st,

1 2

(4).

A,

Raw s c o r e s i n

th e lo w e s t

th ir d —

0

B,

Raw s c o r e s i n

t h e m id d le

th ir d —

1

0,

Raw s c o r e s i n t h e u p p e r t h i r d — 2

The c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t and t h e c r i t e r i o n . fo rty -o n e

(2 )

A.

C. X III,

Raw s c o r e s i n t h e u p p e r t h i r d — 2

O b ject V is u a liz a t io n T e s t ,

C. X II,

(1)

b etw een th e

On t h e e i g h t - b y - f i v e

ca rd f o r each o f the

i n d iv i d u a l s in th e p r e d i c t i o n grou p ,

f o r e a c h i t e m and t e s t was r e c o r d e d .

t o t a l w e ig h ts

F in a lly ,

t h e w e i g h t s was c o m p u te d f o r e a c h e m p l o y e e .

R u c h 's w e i g h t t h e sum o f

T a b le I I I

show s t h e b i - m o d a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e sums o f t h e w e i g h t e d scores.

T a b le IV p r e s e n t s th e d e r i v e d w e i g h t s c o r e and t h e

c r i t e r i o n m e a su r e f o r e a c h member o f t h e p r e d i c t i o n g r o u p . A P e a r s o n p r o d u c t-m o m e n t c o e f f i c i e n t o f c o r r e l a t i o n

34

TABLE I I I

A FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION OF THE SUMMED RUCH WEIGHTS OF THE PREDICTION GROUP

X

£

19

2

18

2 i|r

17

4

16

6

15

1

14

1

13

4

12

7

11

6

10

2

9

2

8

0

7

1

6

1

N = 41 Mean * 1 3 • 5 6 Sta n d a rd d e v i a t io n » 3 .3 0

35 TABLE I V

BUMMED RUOH WEIGHTS AND CRITERION SCORES OF THE PREDICTION GROUP

SUBJECT 1 2 3 A 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

SUMMED WEIGHTS SCORE

CRITERION SCORE

18 12 9 13 13 7 11 10 12 6 11 10 17 11 13 13 16 11 15 12 16 9 16 17 19 18 12 14

195 197 202 207 218 224 234 240 24 6 2 48 255 258 261 262 266 2 66 269 269 272 273 27 6 277 280 281 28 4 284 28 8 288

TABLE I V

(C ont.)

SUMMED RUCH WEIGHTS AND CRITERION SCORES OF THE PREDICTION GROUP

SUBJECT

SUMMED WEIGHTS SCORE

CRITERION SCORE

29 30 31 32

16 11 12 16

291 293 299

33

18 12 17 17 11 12

319

34

35

36

37 38

39 4o 4i

307 312 312 320

328 328

16

344

19 18

346 386

r b e t w e e n summed w e i g h t s a n d c r i t e r i o n

s c o r e s m .4 3 0

37 was c o m p u te d b e t w e e n t h e sum o f t h e c l i n i c a l l y an d t h e c r i t e r i o n . II.

d e r iv e d w e ig h ts

An r o f .A 3 0 ± . 1 2 ? was o b t a i n e d . THE WHERRY-DOGLITTLE METHOD

The p r e l i m i n a r y i n v e s t i g a t i o n .

In o r d e r to d e ter m in e

w h ic h b i o g r a p h i c a l d a t a i t e m s and t e s t s s h o u l d b e u s e d i n th is s t a t i s t i c a l a n a ly sis,

phi c o r r e la tio n c o e f f ic ie n t s

w e re c o m p u te d b e t w e e n e a c h i t e m a n d t h e c r i t e r i o n . a c c o m p l i s h e d by d i v i d i n g e a c h c o n t in u u m i n t o equal c a te g o r ie s .

P h i w as u s e d b e c a u s e i t

e s t im a t e o f th e c o r r e s p o n d in g P e a r so n r . a b le s w ere c o n tin u o u s ,

two a p p r o x i m a t e l y

g i v e s a q u ic k When t h e two v a r i ­

t h e co m p u te d p h i was d i v i d e d by . 6 3 ?;

and when on e v a r i a b l e w as a t r u e and n o n - v e t e r a n ,

T h is w a s

d ich o to m y ,

such a s v e te r a n A • t h e o b t a i n e d p h i w as d i v i d e d by . 7 9 8 . In

t h i s m anner t h e p h i c o e f f i c i e n t s w e r e c o r r e c t e d s o a s t o b e e q u i v a l e n t t o P e a r s o n r 1s . T a b le V show s t h e c o r r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n e a c h i t e m a n d th e c r i t e r i o n .

I t was d e c i d e d t o e l i m i n a t e any t e s t o r

b i o g r a p h i c a l d a t a i t e m w h ic h d i d n o t c o r r e l a t e h i g h e r th a n £ .1 0 w ith th e c r i t e r i o n .

T h is w as done i n o r d e r t o r e d u c e

t h e number o f i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n c o m p u t a t i o n s ,

and a l s o b e c a u s e

t h e u n i q u e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f s u c h an i t e m t o t h e m u l t i p l e

J . P . G u i l f o r d , F u n d a m e n ta l S t a t i s t i c s I n P s y c h o l o g y and E d u c a t i o n , (New Y ork: M c G r a w -H ill Book Company, I n c . ,

W + 2 ) , p . 247.

38 TABLE V CORRELATIONS OF BIOGRAPHICAL DATA ITEMS AND TESTS WITH THE CRITERION

ITEM OR TEST

PHI COEFFICIENT

PEARSON r * s

A

.2 8 9

.2 3 2

B

-.4 4 0

-.2 8 7

C

.0 7 0

D

.2 0 1

.2 4 1 *

E

.1 8 4

.1 0 3

F

. 064

g

.0 0 0

H

.3 9 ^

i

.0 0 0

j

'

• 317

.2 9 2

.2 1 0 *

K

-.1 8 4

-.1 3 7

1

.1 5 ^

.0 0 4

2

• 2 37

-.0 1 2

3

• 157

.0 3 5

A

-.0 7 8

* I n d i c a t e s p o i n t - b i s e r i a l u s e d b e c a u s e one v a r i a b l e w as a t r u e d ic h o t o m y U n d erlin e i n d ic a t e s c o r r e la tio n .

t h a t t e s t w as e l i m i n a t e d due t o s m a l l

F o r i t e m a n d t e s t c o d i n g s y s t e m r e f e r t o p a g e s 20 and 2 3 .

c o r r e l a t i o n w o u ld be a t t h e b e s t e x t r e m e l y s m a l l . C o r r e la t io n c o e f f i c i e n t s b etw een th e and t h e c r i t e r i o n .

item s or t e s t s

P ea rso n r ts f o r th e c o n tin u o u s d i s t r i b u ­

t i o n s an d p o i n t - b i s e r i a l c o e f f i c i e n t s

fo r the

tru e d ic h o to m ie s

w ere t h e n c o m p u te d f o r t h e b i o g r a p h i c a l i t e m s a n d t e s t s w h ic h sh o w e d p h i c o e f f i c i e n t s g r e a t e r th a n £ . 1 0 .

The c o e f ­

f i c i e n t s w h ic h f e l l b e l o w ± . 1 0 on t h e P e a r s o n o r p o i n t - b i s e r i a l c o m p u t a t i o n s w ere a l s o

e lim in a te d .

It is

n o t e t h a t i n T a b le V t h e P e a r s o n r * e a r e in sta n c e )

i n t e r e s t i n g to ( i n a l l b u t one

s m a lle r th a n th e c o r r e c t e d p h i c o e f f i c i e n t .

i s a fu rth er in d ic a tio n

T h is

t h a t t h e t e s t s o r i t e m s w h ic h h a d

lo w p h i c o e f f i c i e n t s w o u ld h a v e a d d e d n o t h i n g t o t h e m u l t i ­ p l e B. A l l o f t h e f o u r t e s t s f e l l b e lo w t h e a r b i t r a r y c r itic a l le v e l, M ethod .

t h u s w ere n o t u s e d i n t h e W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e .

The r e m a i n i n g b i o g r a p h i c a l d a t a i t e m s A.

T o t a l number o f m onths o f p r e v i o u s

u sed

were:

fu ll-tim e

work e x p e r i e n c e . B.

H o u r ly w age d i f f e r e n t i a l b e t w e e n l a s t p r e v i o u s e m p loy m en t a n d s t a r t i n g L o c k h ee d w age r a t e . (D isr e g a r d in g a lg e b r a ic s ig n s )

• ^ L e t te r s p r e c e d i n g i t e m s a g a i n r e f e r t o p a g e s 20 a n d 2 3 .

c o d e on

5

40 D.

M ilita r y e x p e r ie n c e ,

(V eteran or n o n -v e te r a n )

E.

Number o f y e a r s o f e d u c a t i o n c o m p l e t e d ,

H,

Age i n y e a r s ,

J.

Number o f p e r m a n e n t r e s i d e n c y c h a n g e s d u r i n g t h e p a s t two y e a r s . (Moved o r n o t moved)

K.

Number o f m onth s o f r e s i d e n c y i n S o u t h e r n C a l i ­ fo r n ia ,

I t e m s A,

D, 1 , H, a n d J . c o r r e l a t e d p o s i t i v e l y w i t h t h e c r i ­

t e r i o n , w h i l e i t e m s B a n d K sh o w e d n e g a t i v e In item D i t

is

c o r r e la tio n s.

t h e n o n - v e t e r a n c o n t i n g e n c y w h ic h c o r r e l a t e s

p o s i t i v e l y w i t h s u c c e s s on t h e

jo b .

M ost o f t h e s e s t a t i s t i c s , c o r r o b o r a t e p r e v i o u s L o c k 6 heed s t u d ie s . H o w e v er , i n t h e 19^7 L o c k h ee d i n v e s t i g a t i o n , i t was f o u n d t h a t e m p l o y e e s who h a v e l i v e d l o n g e s t i n S o u t h ­ ern C a lif o r n ia ,

and who h a v e r e m a in e d i n t h e same d w e l l i n g

f o r a num ber o f y e a r s , jo b .

t e n d t o c o n t i n u e on t h e i r L o c k h ee d

T h e se two f i n d i n g s m ig h t seem t o be som ew hat i n c o m p a t i ­

b le w ith th e p r e se n t r e s u l t s ,

bu t t h i s i s p r o b a b ly a c c o u n te d

f o r by t h e f a c t t h a t d i f f e r e n t c r i t e r i a w ere u s e d i n t h e two s t u d i e s . The i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s o f t h e r e m a i n i n g i t e m s .

6

None

K. R. Kunze a n d L. 0 . S t o c k f o r d , "A S u r v e y o f E m ploy­ ment P r a c t i c e s , 11 ( u n p u b l i s h e d a r t i c l e , L o c k h e e d A i r c r a f t C o r p o r a t i o n , B urbank, C a l i f o r n i a , 1 9 ^ 7 ) .

o f t h e s e v e n r e m a i n i n g b i o g r a p h i c a l d a t a i t e m s sh ow ed a s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n w ith th e c r i t e r i o n .

The h i g h e s t

c o r r e l a t i o n r = . 2 9 2 , w h ic h was b e t w e e n a g e a n d th e c r i t e r i o n , was j u s t

b e lo w t h e 5% l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e .

An i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n m a t r i x was c o m p u te d u s i n g P e a r ­ so n r 1s e x c e p t w h ere t r u e d i c h o t o m i e s e x i s t e d . o f t h e s e r ' s was b e t w e e n - . 3 5 5 t o th e i n t e r c o r r e l a t i o n s w ere q u it e

The r a n g e

. 6 5 2 , a l t h o u g h m ost o f lo w .

T a b le VI show s t h e

e n t ir e m a tr ix . The M u l t i p l e R.

The m eth od u s e d f o r c o m p u t in g t h e

W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e M u l t i p l e R was t h a t recom m ended by S t e a d 7 and S h a r t l e . The i t e m " a g e 11 s h o w i n g t h e h i g h e s t c o r r e l a t i o n w ith th e c r i t e r i o n ,

r = . 2 9 2 , w as s e l e c t e d a s t h e f i r s t

test.

O th e r t e s t s w ere i n c l u d e d i n t h e b a t t e r y a s t h i s s t a t i s t i c a l p r o c e d u r e w as p e r f o r m e d . tery ,

As e a c h t e s t was a d d e d t o t h e b a t ­

W h e r r y 's s h r i n k a g e f o r m u la w as a p p l i e d .

T a b le V II 2

sh ow s t h e c h a n g e i n M u l t i p l e R and M u l t i p l e R

as th is pro­

c e s s was c a r r i e d t h r o u g h . As shown i n T a b le V I I , maximum v a l u e o f R s item (D ) .

(J ),

th e M u ltip le R reach ed i t s

.5 0 3 w ith th e a d d it io n o f th e fo u r th

and d e c l i n e d w i t h t h e a d d i t i o n o f th e n e x t i t e m

The e r r o r v a r i a n c e a d d i t i o n o f D e x c e e d e d t h e u n iq u e

7 fW. H. S t e a d , e t ,. a l . , O c c u p a t i o n a l C o u n s e l i n g T ech­ n i q u e s » (New York: The A m e rica n Book Company, 1 9 4 0 ) , Ap­ p e n d i x I I I , IV and V.

b2 TABLE V I

INTERCORRELATION MATRIX OF REMAINING- BIOGRAPHICAL DATA ITEMS

A

B ^ .0 3 1 1

A B -.0 3 1 1

D

E

H

J

K

-.2 2 8 8 *

-.3 5 5 3

.6 5 2 3

.0 0 0 4 *

-.3 1 3 2

-.3 4 2 7 *

.1 1 3 8

.0 5 2 1

.0 1 7 3 *

-.1 0 9 6

D - .2 2 8 8 * -.3 4 2 7 *

- . 0072*

E -.3 5 5 3

.1 1 3 8 - - . 0 0 7 2 *

H

.6 5 2 3

.0 5 2 1

J

. 0004-*

.0 1 7 3 * - . 1 3 7 8 #

.1 4 2 4 *

.1 4 2 4 * - . 1 3 7 8 # -.3 3 9 0

-.3 3 9 0

.1 1 2 4 *

- . 0632*

.2 4 1 8

- . 0506*

-.3 0 3 3 -.4 2 8 8 *

- . 0632* - . 0506*

K -.3 1 3 2

-.1 0 9 6

.1 1 2 4 *

.2 4 1 8

-.3 0 3 3

-.4 2 8 8 *

G r i t .2 3 2 3

-.2 8 7 0

.2 4 1 4 *

.1 0 3 1

.2 9 1 7

. 2102*

-.1 3 7 4

* I n d i c a t e s a p o i n t - b i s e r i a l c o e f f i c i e n t due t o one v a r i ­ a b le b e in g a tr u e d ic h o to m y . # D en o tes a p h i c o e f f i c i e n t u se d b e c a u se b o th v a r i a b l e s w ere tru e d ic h o to m ie s. A ll o th er c o r r e la tio n c o e f f i c i e n t s

a re P earson r ' s .

TABLE V I I THE INCREASE IN MULTIPLE R AS EACH ITEM WAS ADDED

Name o f Item '1*'

R2

R

H

.0 8 5 0 9

.2 9 2

B

.1 5 5 5 8

.3 9 4

E

. 20^ 33

.4 5 2

J

. 253^1

.5 0 3

D

.2 4 5 7 6

.4 9 6

*Code f o r i t e m s g i v e n

on p a g e s 20 a n d 2 3 .

kb c o n t r i b u t i o n o f th e it e m .

H ence,

th e a d d it io n o f item s to

th e b a t t e r y c e a se d . The r e g r e s s i o n w e i g h t s . c o n s t a n t K w ere c a l c u l a t e d . V III.

B e t a and b w e i g h t s and t h e

T h e i r v a l u e s a r e g i v e n i n T a b le

S i n c e i t e m J w as a t r u e d i c h o t o m y ,

its

sta n d a rd d eCS

v i a t i o n w as com p u ted b y u s i n g t h e f o r m u la & The p r e d i c t i o n

scores.

By u s i n g t h e m u l t i p l e r e g r e s ­

sio n e q u a tio n , p r e d ic te d c r it e r io n f o r th e p r e d ic t io n . tu a l c r ite r io n

pq.

s c o r e s w e r e com p u ted

T a b le IX sh o w s t h e s e s c o r e s a n d t h e a c ­

scores.

C o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n p r e d i c t e d and o b t a i n e d s c o r e s . The c o e f f i c i e n t o f c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n p r e d i c t e d and o b t a i n e d s c o r e s was r -

.0 5 ^ .

t o the d i s s i m i l a r i t i e s

T h is lo w c o e f f i c i e n t i s

p r o b a b l y due

b e tw e e n t h e tw o g r o u p s .

m ig h t h a v e made t h e g r o u p s more c o m p a r a b le ,

L a r g e r s a m p le s

th u s in c r e a s in g

th e c o r r e l a t i o n b etw een th e p r e d io ted n a n d o b t a in e d c r i t e r i o n scores.

H ow ever, t h e W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e M ethod i s

so la b o r io u s

and r e q u i r e s s o many b a s i c a s s u m p t i o n s f o r c o m p u t i n g t h a t i t m ig h t w e l l p r o v e i n a d e q u a t e f o r m o st i n d u s t r i a l p r o b l e m s . O R o b e r t J . W h erry, “M u l t i p l e B i - s e r i a l a n d M u l t i p l e P o in t B i - s e r i a l C o r r e l a t i o n , “ P sy c h o m e tr lk a , 1 2 :1 8 9 -9 5 * S e p t . , 19^7.

45

TABLE V I I I THE ITEM WEIGHTS AND CONSTANT K

Name o f I t e m *

B e t a W e ig h t s

b W e ig h ts

H

>257

2 .3 7 2

B

-.3 4 8 1

- 1*052

E

.3 0 3 4

6 .8 3 8

J

.2 5 7 0

2 3 .3 6 5

C o n s t a n t (K) = 1 3 9 . 3 7 2

*Code f o r i t e m s g i v e n on p a g e s 20 and 2 3 .

46 TABLE IX

ACTUAL AND PREDICTED CRITERION SCORES BY THE WHERRYDOOLITTLE METHOD

SUBJECT

ACTUAL SCORE

1

195

254*89

2

197

2 2 4 .9 3

3

202

270*93

4

20 7

2 6 7 .7 7

5

218

3 4 3 .0 9

6

22 4

242*52

7

234

289.88

8

240

2 9 1 .2 7

9

246

2 5 9 .1 4

10

248

2 7 7 .2 6

11

255

1 0 9 .2 9

12

258

274*35

13

26l

270*52

14

262

234*67

15

266

2 8 8 .0 4

16

266

2 7 6 .4 5

17

269

2 7 3 .0 5

18

26 9

2 6 7 .2 4

19

272

2 5 8 .8 7

ACTUAL PREDICTION SCORE

47 TABLE IX

(C ont.)

ACTUAL AND PREDICTED CRITERION SCORES BY THE WHERRYDOOLITTLE METHOD

SUBJECT

ACTUAL SCORE

ACTUAL PREDICTION SCORE

20

273

276*73

21

276

3 0 4 .8 8

22

277

2 7 6 .1 8

23

280

2 8 5 .9 4

24

281

255.68

284

2 6 4 .4 3

26

28 4

2 1 3 .6 9

27

28 8

243.09

28

288

2 1 4 .1 4

29

291

2 6 9 .6 5

30

293

2 5 8 .8 7

31

299

2 9 3 .0 5

32

307

2 7 8 .3 1

33

3 12

2 44 .6 7

34

3 12

2 8 9 .0 7

35

319

2 8 3 .8 4

36

320

2 8 2 .5 4

37

328

3 0 8 .9 1

38

3 28

288.30

25

-

48 TABLE IX

(G ont*)

ACTUAL AND PREDICTED CRITERION SCORES BY THE WHERRYDOOLITTLE METHOD

SUBJECT

ACTUAL SCORE

39

344

2 2 7 .3 1

346

2 7 8 .8 9

386

2 5 5 .7 1

41

ACTUAL PREDICTION SCORE

r b e t w e e n a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d s c o r e s = . 0 5 4

As G u i l f o r d s t a t e s : One k e e p s b r i n g i n g more an d more raw r 1s i n t o c o n ­ s i d e r a t i o n , e a c h w i t h i t s own f a l l i b i l i t y . The b u i l d ­ i n g o f an e l a b o r a t e s u p e r s t r u c t u r e o f s t a t i s t i c s upon f o u n d a t i o n - s t o n e s t h a t a r e n o t h i g h l y a c c u r a t e i n them ­ s e l v e s can o n ly l e a d to q u e s t io n a b le r e s u l t s . 9 The d e t a i l e d W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e work s h e e t s a r e c o n ­ t a i n e d i n A p p e n d ix C. III.

THE SUCCESSIVE CUTTING-SCORE METHOD

E s ta b lis h in g th e t e s t grou p s.

The same s t a n d a r d i z a ­

t i o n and p r e d i c t i o n g r o u p s u s e d i n d e t e r m i n i n g t h e W herryD o o l i t t l e M u lt ip le R w ere a l s o u s e d in th e S u c c e s s i v e C u t t in g S c o r e M eth od . The s t a n d a r d l z a t i on g r o u p r e s u l t s .

T a b le X g i v e s

th e

i t e m means a n d t e s t m eans o f t h e s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n g r o u p .

A lso

shown a r e t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f c a s e s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e t e s t ,

or

i t e m m ea n s, c r ite r io n

t h e p e r c e n t a g e s i n f e r i o r t o and s u p e r i o r t o t h e

mean,

th e ran k o rd er o f th e i n d i v i d u a l item s o r

t e s t s b a s e d on t h e s e p e r c e n t a g e s , a ll

fo r ty -o n e c a se s in S e le c tio n of th e

and t h e c r i t e r i o n mean o f

the s t a n d a r d iz a t io n gro u p . b a ttery u sed .

9 . G u i l f o r d , F u n d a m en ta l S t a t i s t i c s E d u c a tio n , op. c i t . , pp. 2 7 0 -2 7 1 .

B e g in n in g w it h th e

in P s y c h o lo g y and

TABLE X

STANDARDIZATION SCORES BY THE SUCCESSIVE CUTTING—SCORE METHOD

ITEM OR TEST

ITEM OR TEST MEAN

% GREATER THAN TEST OR ITEM MEAN

$ INFERIOR TO CRITER­ ION MEAN

% SUPERIOR TO CRITERI­ ON MEAN

TEST RANK ORDER

A

57.68

Al

29

71

2

B

1 9 .9 0

56*

39

61

8

C

#

27

36

64

5

32

38

62

6

D E

1 1 .8 3

68

43

57

12

F

#

A4

44

56

13

g

• 51

24

4o

60

10

H

2 5 .5 4

37

27

73

1

I

#

10

50

50

15

J

#

56

39

61

8

K

9 7 .6 6

61*

32

68

4

1*

2 0 .7 8

54

41

59

11

2.

2 2 . ?6

56

39

61

8

3.

3 0 .9 5

4l

35

65

3

4.

23.0 2

46

47

53

14

C r i t e r i o n Mean = 2 7 3 . 0 0 0

# D en o tes a tru e d ic h o to m y . ^ I n d i c a t e s t h a t s c o r e s l o w e r t h a n t h e mean w e r e s e l e c t e d .

51 i t e m r a n k e d o n e , t h e f r a c t i o n o f c a s e s w h ic h p a s s e d t h a t t e s t mean w e r e s e l e c t e d . t o and i n f e r i o r t o F in a lly ,

Then t h e f r a c t i o n s o f c a s e s s u p e r i o r

t h e mean c r i t e r i o n s c o r e w e r e d e t e r m i n e d .

t h e a c t u a l mean c r i t e r i o n

score o f th o se c a se s

s e l e c t e d was d e t e r m i n e d . F u r t h e r t r i a l b a t t e r i e s w ere co m p u te d by a d d in g t h e item s or t e s t s b a ttery .

in

t h e i r ra n k o r d e r t o d e t e r m i n e

E v e n tu a lly ,

B a t t e r y V II was a r r i v e d a t .

t e r y c o n t a in e d th e s e v e n t e s t s p r e d ic tiv e e ffic ie n c y

th e b e s t T h is b a t ­

o r i t e m s w i t h t h e maximum

and t h e h i g h e s t a c t u a l c r i t e r i o n

score

f o r t h e one b e s t c a s e . T a b le XI d e f i n e s

th e c o m p o s itio n o f t h e s e t e s t and

item b a t t e r i e s . T a b le X II l i s t s

th e t r i a l b a t t e r i e s

s e le c t e d , w ith

the p e r c e n ta g e o f c a s e s

s e l e c t e d by e a c h b a t t e r y ,

cen ta g es o f th ese c a se s

s u p e r i o r t o and i n f e r i o r t o t h e

c r ite r io n ,

th e p e r ­

and t h e a c t u a l c r i t e r i o n mean f o r t h e sa m p le

s e l e c t e d by e a c h b a t t e r y f o r t h e s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n g r o u p . The tests,

‘‘p r e d i c t i v e

e f f i c i e n c i e s “ o f th e b a t t e r i e s ,

th e

or th e it e m s , r e f e r to th e p e r c e n ta g e s o f c a s e s

s e l e c t e d by a p a r t i c u l a r b a t t e r y c r ite r io n

or t e s t th a t had a c tu a l

s c o r e s s u p e r i o r t o t h e mean c r i t e r i o n

th e s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n g r o u p .

score o f

52 TABLE X I

COMPOSITION OF TEST BATTERIES BY SUCCESSIVE CUTTINQ-SCORE METHOD

BATTERY

TESTS OR ITEMS WITHIN BATTERY*

I.

H

II.

H

A

A

III.

H

JL

A

+

3

IV .

H

Am *

A

*

3

V.

H

A

A

*f*

3 * K

+

0

V I.

H

A

A

f

3

*

C

+

D

V II.

H

JL.

A t

3

0

+

D

* O o d in g f o r i t e m s and t e s t s

+

’*

K

K

*

2

a p p e a r s on p a g e s 20 and 2 3 .

53

TABLE X I I

PREDICTIVE EFFICIENCY GF STANDARDIZATION BATTERIES BY SUCCESSIVE CUTTING--SCORE METHOD

% OF CASES INFERIOR TO MEAN CRITERION

% OF CASES SUPERIOR TO MEAN CRITERION

MEAN CRITERION SCORE OF CASES SELECTED

BATTERY

% OF CASES SELECTED BY BATTERY

I.

37

27

73

29 ^ . 8 0

II.

32

23

77

2 9 5 .8 5

III.

10

0

100

301.00

IV .

7

0

100

3 0 7 .0 0

V.

5

0

100

320 .5 0

V I.

5

0

100

3 2 0 .5 0

V II.

3

0

1 00

3 5 7 .0 0

^ P r e d ic tiv e e f f i c i e n c y .

'

5^ The p r e d i c t i o n g r o u p r e s u l t s .

The t r i a l b a t t e r i e s w i t h t h e i r

r e s p e c t i v e p r e d i c t i v e e f f i c i e n c i e s w ere u s e d t o s e l e c t t h e c a s e s in th e p r e d ic t io n group.

T a b le X I I I sh o w s t h e r e s u l t s

f o r the f i v e b a t t e r i e s . C o m p a riso n o f r e s u l t s . T a b le X I I I ,

By c o m p a r in g T a b le X II w i t h

i t c a n r e a d i l y be s e e n t h a t t h e p r e d i c t i v e e f f i ­

c ie n c y o f th e f i r s t

two s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n b a t t i e r s was s u p e r i o r

to t h a t o f th e p r e d ic t io n b a t t e r i e s . 100$ e f f i c i e n c y w it h B a tte r y I I I , r em a in in g c a s e s had c r i t e r i o n c r ite r io n

H ow ever,

b oth r e a c h

At t h i s p o i n t ,

a l l th e

s c o r e s s u p e r i o r t o t h e mean

score.

I t may a l s o b e n o t e d t h a t t h e s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n group s e le c t e d a la r g e r p ercen ta g e o f e a se s and I I I .

Due t o

th is fa c t,

q u ire se v e n b a t t e r i e s p r e d ic tio n

for B a tte r ie s I ,

II,

t h e s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n grou p r e ­

to reduce i t

t o one c a s e ;

w h ile th e

grou p was d e l i m i t e d t o one I n d i v i d u a l by u s i n g

fiv e b a tte r ie s . F i g u r e I I I sh ow s t h e p r e d i c t i v e e f f i c i e n c y o f t h e s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n and p r e d i c t i o n

g r o u p s i n g r a p h i c form .

TABLE X I I I

PREDICTIVE EFFICIENCY OF PREDICTION BATTERIES BY SUCCESSIVE CUTTING-SCORE METHOD

% CASES BATTERY SELECTED BY BATTERY

% CASES INFERIOR TO MEAN CRITERION

% CASES* SUPERIOR TO MEAN CRITERION

MEAN CRITERION SCORE OF GASES SELECTED

I.

22

44

56

2 7 6 .4 4

II.

20

50

50

2 7 5 .5 0

III.

7

0

1 00

3 1 0 .3 3

IV.

7

0

100

3 1 0 .3 3

V.

3

0

100

3 1 9 .0 0

*P r e d ic tiv e E ffic ie n c y

s-

CHAPTER V

A COMPARISON OF THE RESULTS OF THE CLINICALLY DERIVED WEIGHTS, THE WHERRY-DOOLITTLE METHOD, THE SUCCESSIVE CUTTING--SCORE METHOD I,

THE METHOD AND STATISTICS USED

B a s is o f c o m p a riso n .

The b a s i s o f c o m p a r is o n o f t h e

t h r e e m e th o d s was i n te r m s o f t h e a c t u a l mean c r i t e r i o n score o f each b a ttery

i n t h e S u c c e s s i v e G u t t i n g - S e o r e M ethod

v e r s u s t h e e q u i v a l e n t number o f b e s t c a s e s s e l e c t e d by R u c h 's C lin ic a lly

D e r i v e d W e ig h t s and t h e W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e Method*

R u c h 's W e ig h t s a nd t h e W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e M ethod w e re a l s o com p ared a g a i n s t e a c h o t h e r by u s i n g t h i s m e th o d . T a b le XIV sh ow s t h e a c t u a l mean c r i t e r i o n

s c o r e s ob­

t a i n e d by e a c h o f t h e t h r e e m e th o d s u s i n g an e q u i v a l e n t num­ ber o f b e st sc o r e s. F i g u r e IV g r a p h i c a l l y c o m p a r e s t h e p e r c e n t a g e s e l e c t e d , a n d t h e a c t u a l mean c r i t e r i o n s c o r e o f t h e b e s t s e l e c t e d c a s e s by e a c h method* S ig n ific a n c e

o f d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n means o f b e s t

c a s e s s e l e c t e d by e a c h m e th o d . u s e d i n c o m p u t in g t h e

The c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s

sta n d a rd e r r o r o f th e d i f f e r e n c e

fo rm u la e

w e r e o b t a i n e d by d e t e r m i n i n g t h e r a t i o o f t h e common f a c t o r s t o t h e t o t a l number o f factors."** P . G u i l f o r d , P s y c h o m e t r i c M e t h o d s , (New York: M cG-raw-Hill Book Company, I n c . , 1 9 3 6 ) , p p . 3 6 4 - 6 5 *

TABLE X IV

ACTUAL MEAN CRITERION SCORES OF THE BEST CASES SELECTED FROM THE PREDICTION GROUP BY RUCH'S DERIVED WEIGHTS, THE SUCCESSIVE CUTTING-SCORE BATTERIES, AND THE WHERRY-DOOLITTLE METHOD

NO. OF CASES SELECTED BY EACH METHOD

ACTUAL MEAN CRITERION SCORE BY RUCH'S DERIVED WEIGHTS

ACTUAL MEAN CRITERION SCORE BY EACH , BATTERY OF SUCCESSIVE CUTTING—SCORES

ACTUAL MEAN CRITERION SCORE BY W. D. METHOD

9

2 9 9 . 22*

2 7 6 .4 4

2 7 7 .8 9

8

2 9 9 .6 3

2 7 5 .5 0

2 7 9 .3 8

3

3 0 8 .0 0

3 1 0 .3 3

2 7 4 .0 0

1

3 1 5 .0 0

3 1 9 .0 0

2 1 8 .0 0

♦When c a s e s i n an i n t e r v a l d i d n o t r ed u c e t h e m s e lv e s t o t h i s e x a c t number, t h e mean c r i t e r i o n s c o r e o f t h e c a s e s i n t h e n e x t i n t e r v a l was u s e d .

V j\

00

i

UUCV

WA

60 i 5he f o r m u l a u s e d In d e t e r m i n i n g t h e c o r r e l a t i o n

fo r each

s e t was r =s

-- — ------------- ♦ n r e f e r s t o t h e c a s e s i n common, na * n c o r i n d i v i d u a l s who w e r e s e l e c t e d a s " b e s t c a s e s 11 i n b o t h o f t h e c o m p a r in g m e t h o d s .

The sy m b o l n & r e p r e s e n t s t h e r e m a in ­

in g c a s e s u sed in e a ch in s ta n c e . The c o r r e l a t i o n s a r e c o n t a i n e d i n T a b le XV. t h e r e w e r e no c a s e s

S in ce

i n common b e t w e e n t h e b e s t c a s e s s e ­

l e c t e d by t h e W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e M ethod s c o r e s a n d t h e h i g h ­ e s t R u c h 's W e ig h t in g s c o r e s , no c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n t h e

two

m e th o d s e x i s t e d . T a b l e s XVI, X V II, and X V I I I , t i o s o b t a i n e d i n c o m p a r in g t h e s e each o th e r . n ific a n t.

show t h e c r i t i c a l r a ­

t h r e e m e th o d s a g a i n s t

None o f t h e c r i t i c a l r a t i o s o b t a i n e d w ere s i g ­

61

TABLE XV

CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS BETWEEN THE BEST SELECTED BY THE CUTTING-SCORE BATTERIES, WEIGHTS, AND THE WHERRY-DOOLITTLE METHOD STANDARD ERROR OF THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN

NUMBER OF CASES RUCH'S DERIVED FOR USE IN THE MEANS FORMULAE

BEST NUMBER OF CASES

OASES IN COMMON WITH RUCH'S WEIGHTS

9

A

.

AA

A

.AA

8

3*

.3 8

A

.5 0

.0 8

1

.3 3

.00

0

.00

.2 5

3 1

0

CORRE­ LATION COEFFI­ CIENT

CASES IN COMMON WITH W. D. METHOD

CORRE­ LATION COEFFI­ CIENT

*Mean v a l u e u s e d w h en th e~ ’o a s e s w o u ld n o t d i v i d e e v e n l y due to t ie s * N o te :

T h er e w ere no c a s e s i n common b e t w e e n t h e W herryD o o l i t t l e M ethod and R u c h 's W e i g h t s .

62

TABLE XVI SIGNIFICANCE OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEANS BY SUCCESSIVE CUTTING-SCORE BATTERIES AND RUCH'S WEIGHTS

BEST NO. OF CASES

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MEANS

STANDARD ERROR OF THE DIFFERENCE

CRITICAL RATIO

SIGNIFICANCE

9

2 2 .7 8

1 8 .7 7

1 .2 1

N ot

sig n ific a n t

8

2 4 .1 3

2 1 .8 8

1 .1 0

N ot

s ig n ific a n t

3

2 .33

2 2 .9 0

.1 0

Not

sig n ific a n t

______

_____

1

4 .0 0

___________________

63

TABLE XVII SIGNIFICANCE OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEANS BY THE SUCCESSIVE CUTTING—SCOBE BATTERIES AND THE WHERRY-DOOLITTLE METHOD

BEST NO. OF CASES

DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MEANS

9

1 .4 5

16.36

.0 8 8

N ot s i g n i f i c a n t

8

3.88

1 7 .7 5

.2 1 9

Not s i g n i f i c a n t

3

3 6 .3 3

32.28

1 .1 2 5

N ot s i g n i f i c a n t

1

101.00

STANDARD ERROR OF THE DIFFERENCE

CRITICAL RATIO

SIGNIFICANCE

TABLE X V I I I

SIGNIFICANCE OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEANS BY THE WHERRY-DOOLITTIE METHOD AND RUCH'8 WEIGHTS

BEST NO. OF CASES

DIFFERENCE STANDARD BETWEEN ERROR OF THE MEANS DIFFERENCE

CRITICAL RATIO

SIGNIFICANCE

9

21.33

2 2 .0 1

.9 ^ 0

N ot s i g n i f i c a n t

8

2 0 .2 5

2 4 .8 6

.8 1 4

N ot s i g n i f i c a n t

3

3 4 .0 0

3 7 .1 7

.9 1 5

N ot s i g n i f i c a n t

1

97.00

CHAPTER V I

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS I. The C l i n i c a l l y

SUMMARY

D e riv e d W e ig h ts*

W e ig h ts b e tw e e n z e r o

and p l u s two w e re f o r m u l a t e d by F l o y d L. Ruch f o r d i f f e r e n t c a te g o r ie s

on n i n e b i o g r a p h i c a l d a t a i t e m s a n d on raw s c o r e s

fo r fo u r t e s t s .

E ach i n d i v i d u a l i n t h e p r e d i c t i o n g r o u p ,

f o r t y - o n e em p lo y ee s a t

L ock h eed A i r c r a f t C o r p o r a t i o n , was

g iv e n th e a p p ro p ria te w e ig h ts c o r r esp o n d in g to h i s I n d iv id u a l b i o - d a t a i t e m s and t e s t s c o r e s .

The sum o f t h e iireig h ts w as

t h e n f o u n d f o r e a c h w o r k e r and c o r r e l a t e d a g a i n s t a c r i t e r i o n o f m erit r a t i n g s c o r e s . y i e l d e d an r o f . ^ 3 0 . c r ite r io n

The c o e f f i c i e n t o f c o r r e l a t i o n T a b le IV sh o w s t h e summed w e i g h t s a n d

s c o r e s fo r th e p r e d ic t io n group.

W h erry-D oo1 1 1 1 l e M ethod. was u s e d t o s e l e c t i n a m u l t i p l e R.

The W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e M ethod

t h e b e s t i t e m s an d t e s t s The d a t a ,

t o be i n c l u d e d

f u r n i s h e d by t h e f o r t y - o n e

Lock­

h eed e m p lo y ee s in th e s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n group, p r o v id e d th e b a sis

f o r th e m u ltip le

by t h i s p r o c e d u r e w e r e ; la st

c o r r e la tio n .

The i t e m s s e l e c t e d

h o u r l y w age d i f f e r e n t i a l b e t w e e n

jo b a n d L o c k h ee d j o b ,

number o f y e a r s o f e d u c a t i o n ,

age,

a n d number o f t i m e s moved i n t h e p a s t two y e a r s .

m u ltip le c o r r e la tio n o f

A

. 5 0 3 was a t t a i n e d by u s i n g t h i s

b a ttery . B eta w e ig h ts , b w e ig h ts , p u ted .

The c o m p l e t e

r e g r e s s io n eq u a tio n f o r p r e d ic t io n pur­

p o s e s was e s t a b l i s h e d , w ere o b t a i n e d . c r ite r io n

a n d t h e c o n s t a n t K w ere com­

and s c o r e s

f o r t h e p r e d i c t i o n g ro u p

T a b le IX show s t h e a c t u a l an d p r e d i c t e d

sco res fo r

th e fo r ty -o n e

e a se s in th e p r e d ic t io n

group. The c o e f f i c i e n t o f c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n t h e p r e d i c t e d and t h e o b t a i n e d c r i t e r i o n

s c o r e s was fo u n d t o b e . 0 5 ^ .

S u c c e s s i v e C u t t i n g - S c o r e M ethod.

The same s t a n d a r d i z a ­

t i o n a n d p r e d i c t i o n g r o u p s u s e d i n t h e W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e M ethod w ere u s e d i n t h i s p r o c e d u r e . The p r e d i c t i v e t e r i e s w as s u p e r i o r t o H ow ever,

e ffic ie n c y

o f th e s t a n d a r d iz a t io n b a t­

th a t o f th e p r e d ic tio n b a t t e r i e s .

b oth reach ed 100$ e f f i c i e n c y w ith B a tte r y I I I .

mean c r i t e r i o n s c o r e s a t t h i s p o i n t w ere 3 0 1 . 0 0 a r d iz a tio n

its

fo r th e sta n d ­

g ro u p a n d 3 1 0 * 3 3 f o r t h e p r e d i c t i o n g r o u p .

By u s i n g t h e f i v e tests

The

in B a ttery V II,

b i o g r a p h i c a l d a t a i t e m s an d two

th e s t a n d a r d iz a t io n group m a in ta in e d

1 0 0$ e f f i c i e n c y a n d r a i s e d i t s

3 5 7 * 0 0 w i t h one r e m a i n i n g c a s e .

mean c r i t e r i o n s c o r e t o

A mean c r i t e r i o n

score o f

6? 3 1 9 * 0 0 w as a c h i e v e d in* t h e p r e d i c t i o n g rou p w i t h one r e m a in ­ in g c a se ,

when t h e f o u r b i o - d a t a i t e m s and one t e s t i n B a t t e r y

V w ere u s e d . C om p a riso n summary o f a l l m eth o d s u s e d . and m ost s i g n i f i c a n t c o m p a r is o n i s

The f i r s t

b e tw e e n R u c h 's D e r i v e d

W e ig h ts a n d t h e W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e M ethod .

W ith t h e c r i t e r i o n

s c o r e s o f t h e p r e d i c t i o n g ro u p t h e fo r m e r sh ow ed a c o r r e ­ la tio n

o f .^30 w h ile

th e l a t t e r ' s

r was o n l y

The s e c o n d b a s i s o f c o m p a r i s o n i s

. 0 5 ^*

t h e a c t u a l mean

c r ite r io n

s c o r e o f t h e b e s t c a s e s s e l e c t e d by a l l t h r e e

m eth ods.

T a b le XIV sh o w s t h e s e a c t u a l c r i t e r i o n

means f o r

a l l m eth od s. W ith n i n e an d e i g h t c a s e s R u c h 's W e ig h t s h a d means much l a r g e r th a n t h e o t h e r two m e t h o d s . t h r e e and one b e s t c a s e s a r e u s e d ,

H ow ever, when t h e

th e S u c c e s s iv e C u ttin g -

Soore P roced ure has a s l i g h t l y

l a r g e r c r i t e r i o n mean s c o r e

th a n R u c h 's W e ig h t in g M ethod.

The W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e T e c h n i ­

q u e ' s a c t u a l mean c r i t e r i o n

sc o r e s rose s l i g h t l y

and th en

d e c r e a s e d a s t h e b e s t p r e d i c t e d c a s e s by t h i s p r o c e d u r e w e r e s e l e c t e d f o r c o m p a r is o n w i t h t h e o t h e r two m e t h o d s . S ig n ific a n c e

o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n m ean s.

o f th e c r i t i c a l r a t i o s o b ta in e d w ere s i g n i f i c a n t .

None

IX .

CONCLUSIONS

From t h e h y p o t h e s i s o r i g i n a l l y s t a t e d ,

it

c o u l d be

c o n c l u d e d t h a t R u c h 's C l i n i c a l A p p r o a c h c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i ­ f i c a n t l y w i t h e m p lo y e e s u c c e s s ,

g i v i n g an i n d e x o f f o r e ­

c a s t i n g e f f i c i e n c y o f n in e p e r c e n t .

In tu r n ,

th e s t a t i s t i ­

c a l l y d e r iv e d W h e r r y -D o o little p r e d ic te d sc o r e s c o r r e la te d i n s i g n i f i c a n t l y w ith th e c r i t e r i o n . siz e

H ow ev er, t h e s m a l l

o f t h e sa m p le a n d t h e l a r g e number o f I t e m s i n v o l v e d

i n t h e p r e d i c t i o n d e l i m i t s any g r o s s c o n c l u s i o n s r e g a r d i n g the c l i n i c a l v ersu s

th e s t a t i s t i c a l approach.

The c o r r e l a t i o n b e tw e e n t h e R u e h 's W e ig h t s and t h e c r ite r io n

d o e s d e m o n str a te th e a b i l i t y

in d u s t r ia l p s y c h o lo g is t to e v a lu a te

o f th e e x p e r ie n c e d

t e s t s and b i o g r a p h i c a l

d a t a i t e m s w h ic h a r e r e l a t e d t o o n - t h e - j o b a c h i e v e m e n t a s m e a s u r e d by s u p e r v i s o r s 1 r a t i n g s . I n c o m p a r in g t h e a c t u a l mean c r i t e r i o n best cases, D o o little two l e v e l s

s c o r e o f th e

R u c h 's w e i g h t s w ere s u p e r i o r t o t h e W herry-

M ethod a t e v e r y l e v e l o f c o m p a r is o n .

At t h e f i r s t

t h e W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e M ethod h a d s l i g h t l y h i g h e r

c r i t e r i o n means th a n t h e S u c c e s s i v e G u t t i n g - S c o r e P r o c e d u r e , b u t a t t h e t h i r d an d f o u r t h l e v e l s

t h e C u t t i n g - S c o r e M ethod

h a d c o n s i d e r a b l y h i g h e r c r i t e r i o n means th a n t h e W herryD o o l i t t l e M ethod .

A t r e n d to w a r d s i g n i f i c a n c e

th ese l a t t e r d iffe r e n c e s ,

is

shown by

and p r o b a b l y w o u ld h a v e r e v e a l e d

its e lf

if

t h e r e had b e e n more c a s e s *

T a b le XVII d e m o n s t r a t e s

th is tren d . The am ount o f s h r i n k a g e o f t h e M u l t i p l e R i s p r o b a b l y due t o c h a n c e f a c t o r s a s a r e s u l t o f u s i n g a s m a l l s a m p le . T h is p a p e r c o n f i r m s Morman's r e s u l t s D o o little

t h a t t h e W herry-

M ethod c a n s h r i n k t o n o t h i n g ,

a p o sitiv e

o r e v e n r e v e r s e from

t o a n e g a t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t when u s e d w i t h s m a l l

sa m p le s. From t h e s t a n d p o i n t o f econ om y o f tim e a n d l a b o r , R u c h ’ s w e i g h t s and t h e S u c c e s s i v e

C u t t i n g - S c o r e T e ch n iq u e

took abou t o n e - t e n t h as lo n g a s th e

in v o lv e d W h e r ry -D o o little

M ethod . A f i n a l c o n c l u s i o n from t h i s in d ic a tio n

t h e s i s w o u ld be t h e

t h a t many o f t h e same p e r s o n a l d a t a i t e m s w h ic h

a r e r e l a t e d t o t h e tim e an e m p lo y e e r e m a in s w i t h t h e com pany

2

are a ls o c o r r e la t e d w ith s u p e r v is o r s 1 o p in io n s o f a

w o r k e r's

job p e r fo r m a n c e .

^ R o b e r t R. Morman, "C om parison o f t h e W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e and S u c c e s s i v e G u t t i n g - S c o r e M eth od s i n t h e S e l e c t i o n o f T e s t s in a C l e r i c a l A p titu d e B a t t e r y , " (u n p u b lis h e d M aster*s t h e s i s , The U n i v e r s i t y o f S o u t h e r n C a l i f o r n i a , Los A n g e l e s , 1 9^ 9), p . 7 6 . ^K. R. Kunze a n d L. 0 . S t o c k f o r d , "A S u r v e y o f Em ploy­ m ent P r a c t i c e s , " ( u n p u b l i s h e d a r t i c l e , L o c k h e e d A i r c r a f t C o r p o r a t i o n , B u rb an k , C a l i f o r n i a , 1 9 ^ 7 * )

BIBLIOGRAPHY

71 SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY A l l p o r t , G. W ., "The P s y c h o l o g i s t ’ s Frame o f R e f e r e n c e , " P s y c h o lo g ic a l B u l l e t i n , 3 7 : 1 - 2 8 , 19^0. B u r t t , H. E. , P r i n c i p l e s o f E m ploym ent P s y c h o l o g y , r e v i s e d e d i t i o n . New York; H arp er & B r o t h e r s , P u b l i s h e r s , 1 9 ^ 2 , 568 pp . F r e y d , Max, ’’The S t a t i s t i c a l V i e w p o i n t i n V o c a t i o n a l S e l e c ­ t i o n , " Jou rn al o f A p p lied P s y c h o lo g y , 9 :3 ^ 0 -5 6 , 1 9 25. G u i l f o r d , J . P . , F u n d a m en ta l S t a t i s t i c s , i n P s y c h o l o g y and E d u c a t i o n , New York; M cG ra w -H ill Book Company, I n c . , 19^2. 3 3 3 PP. _________, P s y c h o m e t r i c M e th o d s , New York; M cG ra w -H ill Book Company, I n c . , 193^^ 566 PP. G u t h r i e , Edwin R . , " P e r s o n a l i t y i n Terms o f A s s o c i a t i v e L e a r n i n g , " P e r s o n a l i t y and t h e B e h a v i o r D i s o r d e r s , V o l . I , e d i t e d by J o s e p h McV. H u n t. New York; The R o n a ld P r e s s Company, 1 9 ^ . pp. ^ 9 -6 9 . H an k s, L. M ., J r . , " P r e d i c t i o n From Case M a t e r i a l t o P e r ­ s o n a l i t y T e s t s D a ta — A M e t h o d o l o g i c a l S t u d y o f T y p e s , " A r c h i v e s o f P s y c h o l o g y , 207: 1 8 1 9 , 1 9 3 6 . K en agy, H. S . and C. S . Yoakum, The S e l e c t i o n and T r a i n i n g o f S a l e s m e n , New York; M c G r a w - H i l lB o o k Company, 1 9 2 5 . 38 0 p p . K unze, K. R. a n d L. 0 . S t o c k f o r d , "A S u r v e y o f Employment P r a c t i c e s , " u n p u b l i s h e d a r t i c l e , L o c k h ee d A i r c r a f t Cor­ p o r a t i o n , B u rb an k , C a l i f o r n i a , 1 9 ^ 7 . L u n d b erg, G e o r g e , S o c i a l R e s e a r c h , New York; and Company, 1 9 2 9 . 380 p p .

Longmans G reen

Morman, R o b e r t R . , "Com parison o f t h e W h e r r y - D o o l i t t l e and S u c c e s s i v e C u t t i n g - S c o r e M eth od s i n t h e S e l e c t i o n o f T e s t s i n a C l e r i c a l A p titu d e B a t t e r y . " U n p u b lish ed M a s t e r ' s T h e s i s , The U n i v e r s i t y o f S o u t h e r n C a l i f o r n i a , Los A n g e l e s , C a l i f o r n i a , 1 9 4 9 . 112 p p . R e i c h e n b a c h , H a n s, E x p e r i e n c e and P r e d i c t i o n , C h ic a g o ; U n i v e r s i t y o f C h ic a g o P r e s s , 1 9 4 8 . 410 pp .

72 R o g e t , P e t e r Mark, T h e s a u r u s o f E n g l i s h Words a n d P h r a s e s , P h i l a d e l p h i a : D a v id McKay C o*, 1 9 2 1 . 8 l5 pp. S a r h i n , T h eo d o re R . , “A C o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e S t u d y o f A c t u ­ a r i a l a n d I n d i v i d u a l M eth od s o f P r e d i c t i o n , “ A m erican J o u r n a l o f S o c i o l o g y , 4 8 : 5 9 3 - 6 ° 2 , March, 1 9 4 3 . , “C l i n i c a l P s y c h o l o g y — A r t o r S c i e n c e , M P s y c h o m e t r i k a , 5 7 3 91-400, 1941. ___________ “The R e l a t i v e A c c u r a c y o f C l i n i c a l a n d S t a t i s t i c a l P r e d i c t i o n s o f A c a d e m ic A c h i e v e m e n t , M P s y c h o l o g i c a l B u l l e t i n , 3 8 :7 1 4 -1 5 , O ctob er, 1941. S c o t t , W. D . , a t a l . , P e r s o n n e l M anagem ent, t h i r d e d i t i o n . New Y ork: M cG r a w -H ill Book Company, I n c . , 1 9 4 1 . 589 pp. S t e a d , W. H . , a t a l . , O c c u p a t i o n a l C o u n s e l i n g T e c h n i q u e s , T h e i r D e v e lo p m e n t a n d A p p l i c a t i o n . New York: A m e rica n Book Company, 1 9 ^ 0 . 260 p p . ’ S t o c k f o r d , L. 0 . and H. W. B i s s e l l , “F a c t o r s I n v o l v e d i n E s t a b l is h i n g a M e r it-R a tin g S c a l e , ” P e r s o n n e l, 26 :9 4 11 6 , S eptem ber, 1 9 4 9 . S u p e r , D o n a ld E . , A p p r a i s i n g V o c a t i o n a l F i t n e s s . New York: H a r p e r and B r o t h e r s , 1 9 4 9 • 720 p p . The A m e r ic a n C o l l e g e T if f in , Joseph , H a ll, I n c .,

D ic tio n a r y ,

NewdYork: Random H o u s e ,

194?*

I n d u s t r i a l P s y c h o l o g y , New York: P r e n t i c e 1947. 5 5 3 PP.

V l t e l e s , M o r r is S . , “The C l i n i c a l V ie w p o in t i n V o c a t i o n a l S e l e c t i o n , ” J o u rn a l o f A p p lied P sy c h o lo g y , 9 :1 3 1 -3 8 , 1925. W a l l i n , P a u l , “The P r e d i c t i o n o f I n d i v i d u a l B e h a v i o r fro m C ase S t u d i e s , “ The P r e d i c t i o n o f P e r s o n a l A d j u s t m e n t , P au l H o r st, e d it o r ; S o c ia l S c ie n c e R esea rch C o u n c il, 4 8 :2 4 2 -4 9 , 1941. W herry, R o b e r t J . , “M u l t i p l e B i s e r i a l and M u l t i p l e P o i n t B i ­ s e r i a l C o r r e l a t i o n , ” P sy c h o m etr ik a , 1 2 :1 8 9 -9 5 * S ep tem b er, 19^7. W ittm an , Mary P h i l l i s , “E v a l u a t i o n o f P r o g n o s i s i n t h e F u n c­ t i o n a l P s y c h o s e s ,” P s y c h o lo g ic a l B u l l e t i n , 38:535-36* 1941.

APPENDIX A TESTS USED

Possible Corrects:............. 35 Number Omitted: _____ Number Incorrect: ___ _ Number C o rre c t:_____ . _____ x/z Number Incorrect:................ Raw Score: ............... .................. % lie R a n k :..................................

PERSONNEL PLACEMENT SERIES

SURVEY OF M E C H A N IC A L IN S IG H T Designed by D. R. Miller

N am e

...A ge

O rganization...

.Sex: M-F

D ate—.

...Position....

Directions:

Each of the practice problems below has three possible answers. You are to check the correct answer. In each drawing, the symbol (§) stands for an axle which can turn, or on which another part turns. However, it is fixed so that it cannot be moved from its position. The symbol O stands for an axle or pin which can turn and can be moved from its position. Look at practice problem one. Wheel F will turn if wheel A turns in either direction one or direction two. Therefore answer (3) has been checked. In the second problem, as wheel A makes a complete turn, it pulls the cord up and down. This pulls rod R up and down. There­ fore, answer (1) has been checked. In order for w h e el F to b e turned, w h eel A (1) m u st

turn in .direction one.

_______(2) m ust

turn in direction two.

•>/

(3) m ay turn in either direction.

T he cord attached to arm R goes around w h e e l F and is attached to w h eel A W hen w h eel A m akes a com plete turn, arm R m oves \/ (1) up and down. (2) up. (3) down.

Now YOU do practice problems three and four. W hen w h e el A turns in the direction show n, w h e el F (1) m u st turn in direction one. (2) m u st turn in direction tw o._ (3) m ay turn in either direction. $?F

W hen A and B are m oved together _(1) the distance b etw een A and B increases.

Ea \ / m ° A

4.

U

a,

_(2) the distance b etw een B and F decreases. ___(3) the distance b etw een D and E decreases.

The correct answer to problem three is (2 ). The correct answer to problem four is (3). Do not open the booklet until you are told to do so. On the following pages are more problems like these. Do them as QUICKLY and ACCURATELY as you can. Do not spend too much time on any one problem. You will be allowed thirty minutes. Copyright 1945. California Test Bureau. Copyright under International Copyright Union. All Rights Reserved under Pan-American Copyright Union. Published by California Test Bureau, 5916 Hollywood Boulevard, Los Angeles 28, California. Printed in U. S. A.

In order to wind the spring, handle A - (1) m ust be turned in direction one: — (2 ) m ust be turned in direction two. -'(3 ) m ay be turned in either direction.

If arm R is pushed to the right, wheel A (1) m ust turn in direction one. - (2) m ust turn in direction two. - (3 ) m ay turn in either direction.

2.

R The teeth of wheel F will always fit between the teeth of wheel A. - (1 ) When wheel F turns continuously, wheel A makes occasional stops. - (2 ) Only wheel F can be the driver (the wheel that makes the other wheel' tu r n ). - (3 ) For each complete turn of wheel F, wheel A makes a complete turn.

In order for arm R to be moved up and down, wheel A — (1 ) must turn in direction one. * - (2) must turn in direction two. -(3)

m ay turn in either direction.

4

When A and B are moved together - (1 )

the distance between C and

E* increases.

- (2)

the distance between E and

F increases.

- (3 )

the distance between FI and

I increases.

5.

A

75

j i s

Trrrah

^"“‘1"1

As wheel \ A turns, it causes rod R to go up and down. In order for rod R to move a greater distance up and down than at present; - (1) Rod R should be moved nearer the center of wheel A. - (2) The angle of tilt of wheel A should be increased. - (3) Wheel A should be made smaller.

6*

4

=

" 1—

f

Jp* J

In order for rod R to be moved back and forth, wheel A - (1) must turn in direction one.

i

*S)

§

V ^W

- (2) must turn in direction two. - (3) may turn in either direction.

7.

The least number of strips that must be attached to the frame so that its shape cannot be changed is - (1) one. - (2) two. - (3) three. 8. When wheel F turns in the direction shown,, wheel A - (1) must turn in direction one. - (2) must turn in direction two. - (3) may turn in either direction. 9.

In order for arm R to move back and forth, wheel A 2

- (1) must turn in direction one. - (2) mustj turn in direction two. - (3) may turn in either direction.

0

In order for frame R to move back and forth, wheel - (1) must turn in direction one. - (2), must turn in direction two. - (3) may turn in either direction.

(1) This mechanism will not work unless wheel F turns in direction one. (2) Wheel F makes five turns for each turn of wheel A. (3) Either wheel can be the driver (the wheel which makes the other wheel move). 12

Wheel A turns wheel F. Wheel A may be moved, back and forth between the outside of wheel F and the center. If wheel A is turned at a constant speed, - (1) wheel F will turn faster if the pegs nearest the center are turned by wheel A. - (2) wheel F will turn faster if the pegs nearest the outside are turned by wheel A. - (3) wheel F will turn at the same speed no matter which pegs are turned by wheel A.

L 2J

3

2

(1) As wheel F turns in direction one, frame R turns in direction three. (2) The mechanism will keep on working only if the wheels keep turning in the same direction. (3) Either wheel or the frame can be the driver (the part which makes the other parts move).

14. The teeth of the three wheels are engaged. If wheel F turns in the direction shown, wheel A y

2

5.

—(1) must turn in direction one. —(2) must turn in direction two. — (3) can not turn.

?6

f r S \'

When wheel F turns in the direction shown, wheel A - (1) must turn in direction one. - (2) must turn in direction two. - (3) may turn in either direction.

16.

17 .

, Rack G can not move. Rack S can move back and forth. As the bolt on wheel F moves from'position A to position B - (1) Arm R moves to the right. - (2) Wheel A turns in direction one. — (3) Rack S and arm R move in opposite directions.

When this mechanism is in operation, wheel A — (1) must turn in direction one. —(2) must turn in direction t)vo. — (3) may turn in either direction. 8.

When this mechanism-is in operation, wheel A - (1) must turn in direction one. - (2) must turn in direction two. - (3) may turn in either direction.

When wheel F turns in the direction shown, wheel A — (1) must turn in direction one. —(2) must turn in direction two. - (3) may turn in either direction.

20.

I

- (1) As wheel A turns in direction one, platform P goes up. -(2 ) This mechanism will not operate if wheel A turns continuously in one direction. - (3) The platform will rise more slowly if wheel A is made larger.

When wheel J turns in the direction shown. — (1) wheel M turns in the opposite direction. —(2) wheel K turns in the direction shown:' —(3) wheel L turns in the direction shown. 22.

When A and B are moved together, /

- (1) the distance between F and G increases. - (2) the distance between D and H decreases. - (3) the distance between D and C decreases.

This mechanism cannot work. In order for the chain to move, — (1 )

remove wheel B,

- (2 ) remove wheel A and adjust the size of * the chain. - (3 ) move wheel C away from wheel B and adjhst the size of the chain. 0 In order for the frame to keep moving back and forth, wheel A - (1)

must turn in direction one.

— (2)

must turn in direction two.

— (3 ) must turn in 25.

changing •directions.

77 The curved bar on wheel F fits between the teeth of wheel A. When wheel F is turned in the direction shown, wheel A - (1) must turn in direction one. - (2) must turn in direction two. - (3) must turn in changing directions. 26. The cord which is attached to arm R is' pulled tightly around the two wheels. If arm R is pushed to the right, wheel A - (1) will keep turning in direction two. - (2) will keep turning in either direction. - (3) will not turn. 27. When this mechanism is in operation, wheel A - (1) must turn in direction one. - (2) must turn in direction two. u V iA - v iiV

28 .

- (3) may turn in either direction.

.

In order for wheel F to be turned, wheel A — (1) must turn in direction one. —(2) must turn in direction two. — (3) may turn in either direction. 2 9.

30.

The teeth of wheel F will always fit between the teeth of wheel A. The reason why wheel F was not made round like a circle is that (1) only one wheel can be the driver (the wheel that makes the other wheel m o v e). — (2 ) when one wheel turns at a constant rate of speed, the speed of the other wheel changes continuously. — (3) when one wheel turns continuously, the other wheel stops turning at certain* points.

In order for arm R to move back and forth, wheel A —(1) must turn in direction one. — (2) must 'turn in direction two. — (3) may turn in either direction. 3 1. In order for frame R to move back and forth, wheel A 2< C ^

7

— (1) must turn in direction one. — (2) must turn in direction two. — (3) may turn in either direction.

32.

If E is moved upward to point P,

E

D

— (1) the distance between A and B decreases. —*(2) the distance between C and D increases. —(3) the distance between B and E increases.

33.

If screw F turns in the direction shown, wheel A - (1) must turn in direction one. - (2) must turn in direction two. - (3) may turn in either direction., ,

34.

- (1) In order for the mechanism to work, wheel A must turn in the direction shown. - (2) Wheel F turns in the same direction as that shown for wheel A. - (3) Wheel F does not move continuously.

35.

78 44 Possible Corrects: Omissions: ____ In corrects: . -L — Number Right .... 1/3 Number Incorrect Raw Score — ........... Percentile :.................

PERSONNEL PLACEMENT SERIES

SURVEY OF OBJECT VISUALIZATION Designed by D. R. Miller,

Name

A ge......... ...Sex: M-F t

Organization

Date..... -

Position.....

Directions:

Look at the practice problems below. At the left of each problem is a drawing of a flat pattern. When this pattern is folded on the dotted lines or rolled together correctly, it will take the shape of one of the four objects to the right of it. For example, if Pattern 1 is folded on the dotted lines and the edges of the two side sections brought together, the pattern will look like Object B. Therefore, Letter B is checked in the answer column at the right. Now YOU do problem 2.

A____ ,B____

If Pattern 3 is rolled until the two short ends meet, the pattern will look like Object A. Now .YOU do Problem 4.

You should have checked Letter C for Problem 2 and Letter D for Problem 4. Do not open the bgoklet until you are told to do so. On the following pages are more problems like these. Do them as QUICKLY and ACCURATELY as you can. Do not spend too much time on any one problem. You will be allowed twenty-five minutes. Copyright, 1945* by California Test Bureau Published by California Test Bureau 5916 Hollywood Boulevard: Los Angeles 28, California

A_ r O

DL_ D

O

/ A

2.

• -

Q

D

D---

^

A_ B_ C __

i

1 i

3.

"

I

II

1K A

B

C

D

'

e z a

D A_ B_ C_ D_

i! i

II

8.

f^V)

A_ B_ C_ D_

B

C

D

c : 13.

A

B

“Ii-- Ir I I

14. i

A

B

C

D

80

Possible Corrects

50

Omissions* *•••••••• Incorrect s . ............ * Raw Score* ............ . STANDARD TASK 2 Name of applicant or employee:



Age:

_

Sex:

Position held or applied for: _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Date: Instructions: Below at the le f t is a p ile of blocks* They are aU the same size and shape* The block with an A on i t touches two other blocks, so a 2 has been placed by the A in the answer column* The block with a B on i t touches three other blocks, so a 3 has been written after B in the answer column* C touches three blocks, D four and E four, so those numbers have been written in the answer column* At the right you w ill find another p ile of blocks* Look at each block that has a le tte r on i t and find out how many other blocks i t touches and write that number by the same le tte r in the answer column* Touching comers or edges are not counted* Just mark down the number of blocks with touching tops, sides or ends*

AJL @_3. G.3. D4 E 4

A

ft. C. D. E

^ rr"n"^ 2TC^i0n3: When the examiner says "(So," turn th is sheet over and work as fa st id as accurately as you can u n til time i s called*

A

B_ C

B_

C

0_

E

E

E

3.

A,

4.

B_

C_ D. E

A_

6.

c_ 0

F

A.

A.

B_ C_ D E

JL

8.

a.

e_

dl

e

a.

10.